AIR QUALITY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN DEVELOPMENT
FOR
I
CRITICAL CALIFORNIA REGIONS:
SAN FRANCISCO BAY INTRASTATE AQCR
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
JULY 1973
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AIR QUALITY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN DEVELOPMENT
FOR
CRITICAL CALIFORNIA REGIONS:
SAN FRANCISCO BAY INTRASTATE AQCR
TASK ORDER 19
CONTRACT NO. 68-02-0048
August 1973
Prepared by
Transportation and Environmental Operations of TRW, Inc.
One Space Park
Redondo Beach, California
For The
Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Land Use Planning
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
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This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency
by TRW Transportation and Environmental Operations in fulfillment of
Contract Number 68-02-0048, Task Order 19. The concents of this report
are reproduced herein as received from the contractor. The opinions,
findings, and conclusions are those of TRW and not necessarily those
of the Environmental Protection Agency. The results and conclusions
developed herein are based, in part, on the limited nature of the method-
ology used in forecasting air quality. Mention of company or product
names does not constitute endorsement by the Environmental Protection
Agency.
Tl
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
1.0 SUMMARY 1
1.1 Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations 2
1.1.1 Findings 2
1.1.2 Conclusions 3
1.1.3 Recommendations 4
1.2 Limitations of the Analysis 4
1.2.1 Emission Factors 5
1.2.2 Traffic Data Projection 8
1.2.3 Hydrocarbon Reactivity Assumptions 9
1.2.4 The Rollback Method 10
1.3 References 12
2.0 INTRODUCTION 13
2.1 Study Objectives 14
2.2 Regional Description 15
2.2.1 Physiography 15
2.2.2 Meteorology 18
2.3 Problem Definition 20
2.4 References 24
3.0 BASELINE DATA 25
3.1 Air Quality Data and Base Year Selection 25
3.1.1 Base Year Selection 26
3.1.2 Rollback Requirements 26
3.2 Baseline Emission Inventory 27
3.2.1 Stationary Sources 28
3.2.2 Aircraft 37
3.2.3 Motor Vehicles 39
3.3 Transportation Data 50
3.3.1 Travel Patterns 50
3.3.2 Transportation Facilities and Services 67
3.4 References 83
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
4.0 CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT 85
4.1 Alternative Control Measures 86
4.1.1 Stationary Source Controls 86
4.1.2 Aircraft Controls 96
4.1.3 Vehicular Controls 100
4.1.4 Alternative VMT Control Measures and
Their Effects 105
4.2 The California ARB Implementation Plan 150
4.2.1 Baseline Emissions Inventory 150
4.2.2 ARB Control Strategy 158
4.3 Proposed Control Strategy 164
4.3.1 Phase I Measures (Recommended) 165
4.3.2 Phase II Measures (If Demonstrably Warranted) 169
4.3.3 Summary of the Proposed Control Strategy 171
4.4 References 179
5.0 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED CONTROL MEASURES 181
5.1 Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control 181
5.2 Inspection and Maintenance Program 182
5.3 VSAD/LIAF Retrofit of Pre-1955 LDV 183
5.4 Catalytic Converter Retrofit 183
5.5 Solvent Usage 183
5.6 References 185
6.0 SOCIAL IMPACTS 186
6.1 Who - The Impact on Various Socio-Economic Groups 187
6.1.1 The Young and Aged 187
6.1.2 The Poor 189
6.1.3 The Minority Groups 194
6.2 When - The Impact on Mobility Patterns 195
6.2.1 Typical Urban Driving Patterns 195
6.2.2 Reducing Optional Trips 196
6.3 Where - The Impact on Accessibility 197
IV
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
Page
6.4 How - The Impact on Mode Choice Decisions 198
6.5 Summary 200
6.6 References 215
7.0 GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS AND TRANSPORTATION FUNDING
MECHANISMS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 216
7.1 Regional Agencies 216
7.2 Sub-Regional and Local Transportation Operators 220
7.2.1 Public Agencies 220
7.2.2 Private Agencies 222
7.3 Bay Area Transportation Funding Mechanisms 223
7.3.1 Sources of Revenue (1974 to 1983) 223
7.3.2 Uses of Revenues 225
8.0 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION 226
8.1 Procedure and Time Schedule 226
8.2 Agency Involvement 230
9.0 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION 233
9.1 Phase I Measures 233
9.1.1 Stationary Source Control Measures 233
9.1.2 Mobile Source Control Measures 235
9.2 Phase II Measures 236
9.2.1 Stationary Source Control Measures 236
9.2.2 Mobile Source Control Measures 236
APPENDICES
A AIR QUALITY DATA TRENDS AND MONITORING STATIONS A-l
B PROJECTIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND GASOLINE CONSUMPTION B-l
C ESTIMATING MODE CHOICE AND VMT REDUCTION C-l
D MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS D-l
E AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS E-l
F AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS CONTROL F-l
G PUBLIC ATTITUDE SURVEY SAN FRANCISCO BAY AQCR G-l
H RECENT CALIFORNIA AIR POLLUTION LEGISLATION H-l
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LIST OF FIGURES
1-1 1975 Carbon Monoxide Emissions Based on the General
Motors Report to the Environmental Protection Agency 6
2-1 San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR 16
2-2 Key Access Constraints Within the Bay Area 19
2-3 Trend of Average High-Hour Oxidant Concentrations for
Days with Comparable Temperature and Inversion Conditions 23
3-1 San Francisco Bay Area AQCR Major Contributors 1971 Base
Year Emission Inventory 29
3-2 Projected VMT and Vehicle Registrations for San Francisco
Bay Air Basin 42
3-3 Relative Baseline RHC Emissions from the Vehicle Types
in the San Francisco Air Basin 43
3-4 Degree of Baseline Control for Various Vehicle Types
in the San Francisco Air Basin 44
3-5 Baseline Total VMT Determinations for San Francisco Air
Basin 48
3-6 Estimated Daily VMT 63
3-7 BATSC Super Districts 65
3-8 Bay Area Transit Coverage 69
3-9 Theoretical Bus Requirements for Commute Transit Riderships 77
3-10 1970 Freeway Peak Period Operating Conditions 82
4-1 Mode Choice for Work Travel to San Francisco CBD 107
4-2 Mode Choice for Work Travel to Remainder of San Francisco 107
4-3 Mode Choice for Work Travel to Oakland-Berkeley 109
4-4 Mode Choice for Work Travel to Remainder of Alameda and
Contra Costa Counties 109
4-5 Mode Choice for Work Travel to San Mateo and Marin
Counties 110
4-6 Mode Choice for Work Travel to Santa Clara, Solano,
Sonoma and Napa Counties 110
4-7 Mode Choice for Non-Work Travel to San Francisco 112
4-8 Mode Choice for Non-Work Travel to Locations Outside
San Francisco 112
4-9 Bay Area Mode Coice Reflecting Travel Cost and Time 114
4-10 Impedance for Round Trip from Concord, Work Purpose 116
VI
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LIST OF FIGURES (Continued)
Page
4-11 Major Employers Outside San Francisco and Central Oakland-
Berkeley 125
4-12 Air Quality Measurements in Livermore (Monitored at
Rincon and Pine - 1970-71) 145
4-13 Air Quality Measurements in Livermore (Monitored at
Railroad Street - 1970-72) 146
4-14 Urban Development Structure with "Transit Corridors: 149
4-15 Percentage of Emissions from Major Sources in San
Francisco Bay Area Air Basin, 1970 151
4-16 Proposed California ARB Strategy Oxidant Emission Controls
Based on Controlling RHC for the San Francisco Region 160
4-17 Proposed California ARB Strategy CO Emission Controls
for the San Francisco Region 161
4-18 Proposed California ARB Strategy NOX Emission Controls
for the San Francisco Region 162
4-19 Summary of RHC Control Strategy Effectiveness for San
Francisco Bay Area (1970 to 1980) 172
4-20 Summary of CO Control Strategy Effectiveness for San
Francisco Bay Area (1972 to 1980) 173
7-1 Bay Area Public Transit Funds for Existing and
Committed Systems (1974-1983) 218
7-2 Bay Area Highway Funds with Potential Discretionary Funds 219
A-l Bay Area Air Pollution Control District Monitoring
Network A-4
C-l Bay Area Transportation Study Modal Split Model Home
Based Work and Related Business Trips C-2
C-2 Bay Area Transportation Study Model Split Model Home
Based All Other Except Work and School Trips C-3
C-3 Bay Area Transportation Study Modal Split Model Non-Home
Based Trips C-4
C-4 Percent Person Trips by Transit Versus Auto-Transit
Travel Time Ratio - Example: Work Trips to San Francisco
CBD C-12
C-5 Percent Person Trips by Transit Versus Auto-Transit
Travel Time Ratio - Example: Work Trips to Oakland-
Berkeley C-l 3
Vll
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LIST OF FIGURES (Continued)
Page
D-l Vehicle Miles Driven Per Year Versus Age of Vehicle D-7
D-2 San Francisco Basin - Estimated Hydrocarbon Baseline
Emissions from Light Duty Vehicles in 1971 D-14
D-3 San Francisco Basin - Estimated Carbon Monoxide Baseline
Emissions from Light Duty Vehicles in 1971 D-15
D-4 San Francisco Basin - Estimated Nitrogen Oxides Baseline
Emissions from Light Duty Vehicles in 1971 D-16"
F-l Hydrocarbon and Carbon Monoxide Emissions from a Typical
Aircraft Turbine Engine (JT3D) F-5
vm
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LIST OF TABLES
Page
1-1 Cold Start CO Emissions for Various Model Year Vehicles 7
2-1 San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin Population and Land Area 17
2-2 Air Pollution in the Bay Area (1971-1972) 21
3-1 Rollback Calculations and Allowable Emission Levels 27
3-2 San Francisco Bay Area AQCR Baseline Emission Inventory,
1971, 1975, 1977, and 1980 30
3-3 Reactivity Assumptions for Stationary Sources 31
3-4 Baseline Stationary Source Controls of Hydrocarbon, RHC,
CO, and NOX for the San Francisco Bay Area AQCR 32
3-5 Growth Assumptions for Stationary Source Emissions 33
3-6 ARB Organic Solvent Reactivity Assumptions for San
Francisco (January 1972 Implementation Plan Versus April
1973 Revisions) 36
3-7 Aircraft Baseline Emissions in the San Francisco Bay Area
by Airport Type 37
3-8 RHC Emissions from Aircraft in the San Francisco Bay Area 37
3-9 Baseline Motor Vehicle RHC Emissions - San Francisco Air
Basin 40
3-10 Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions in the San Francisco
Air Basin 45
3-11 Regional Person Travel Estimates 51
3-12 All Purposes 1965 Average Weekday Person Trips by all
Modes 53
3-13 Home-Based Work Trips - 1965 Average Weekday Person
Trips by all Modes 54
3-14 Resident Employees Place of Work - Percentage, 1965 55
3-15 1965 Average Weekday Person Trips - Comparison of Trips
Within County and Adjacent Counties 56
3-16 1965 Average Weekday Person Trips - Home-Based Work Trips
Comparison of Trips Within County and Adjacent Counties 57
3-17 1965 Average Weekday Trips by Purpose and Mode 58
3-18 Distribution of 1965 Average Weekday Total - Person
Trips by Mode 59
3-19 Distribution of 1965 Average Weekday - Work Person
Trips by Mode 60
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
3-20 VMT by County " 62
3-21 VMT Originating in each of 30 BATSC Superdistricts 64
3-22 VMT Breakdown by Roadway Functional Classification 66
3-23 Bay Area Region Transit Operators 68
3-24 Key to Urbanized Areas Without Transit Service 80
3-25 Recommended Transit Improvements 74
3-26 Recommended Highway Improvements 79
3-27 Daily Off-Street Parking Rates, Selected Bay Area
Locations 81
3-28 Parking Spaces, San Francisco CBD 81
4-1 Baseline Versus Allowable Emission Levels 85
4-2 Engine Modifications for Emission Control for Existing
and Future Engines 97
4-3 Time and Costs for Modification of Current Civil Aviation
Engines 98
4-4 Costs and Time for Operations Changes at a Large
International Airport . 100
4-5 Average Annual Percent Reductions 102
4-6 Retrofit Control Measures 103
4-7 Control of Impedance Parameters 117
4-8 External Trip Attractions - San Francisco, 19^65 120
4-9 Employment at Bay Area Firms with Over 1000 Employees 124
4-10 Regional Trip Making and Auto Occupancy by Trip Purpose 133
4-11 Average Weekday Trips Compared with Average Weekend
Day Trips, 1965 137
4-12 Summary of Impacts for VMT Reduction Strategies 141
4-13 San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin's Estimated Average
Emissions of Contaminants into the Atmosphere, 1970 152
4-14 Percentage Growth in Population and Motor Vehicles
for Various California Regions (1960 to 1980) 154
4-15 Effects of Control Strategy San Francisco Bay Area
Air Basin (tons/day) 159
4-16 Baseline Emission Inventory - San Francisco Bay Area AQCR 174
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
4-17 TRW Strategy - San Francisco Bay Area AQCR 175
4-18 RHC Emissions from Motor Vehicles - Projected Inventory
and Anticipated Reductions (1975 to 1980) 176
4-19 CO Emissions from Motor Vehicles - Projected Inventory
and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 177
4-20 Oxides of Nitrogen Emissions from Motor Vehicles -
Projected Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980) 178
5-1 Estimated Costs of Control for San Francisco Area 184
6-1 Car Ownership by Age of Household Level 188
6-2 Percent of Elderly with No Autos Available 189
6-3 Car Ownership by Household Income Level 190
6-4 Summary of Overall Social Impacts 201
6-5 Annual Express Bus Benefit/Cost Comparison 205
6-6 Annual Local Bus Benefit/Cost Comparison 207
6-7 Comparison of Social Benefits from Local Transit Service
Alternatives 211
6-8 Express Bus Operations Annual Reduction in Air Pollution 213
8-1 Proposed Implementation Time Schedule 227
8-2 Agency Responsibility for Control Measure Implementation 231
A-l Air Pollution in the Bay Area (1971 - 1972) A-2
A-2 Average High Hour Oxidant Concentrations for Days
With Comparable Temperature and Inversion Conditions
(April through October Oxidant Smog Seasons, 1962-1972) A-3
B-l San Francisco Bay Area Regression Analysis Results B-6
C-l 1965 Trip Origins and Destinations, Work Purpose C-6
C-2 1965 Trip Origins and Destinations, Non-Work Purpose C-7
C-3 Trips to San Francisco CBS (Superdistrict 1), 1965,
Work Purpose C-8
C-4 Trips to Oakland (Superdistrict 16), 1965, Work Purpose C-9
C-5 Trips to Berkeley (Superdistrict 17), 1965, Work
Purpose C-10
C-6 1980 Trip Origins and Destinations, Work Purpose C-14
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
C-7 1980 Trip Origins and Destinations, Non-Work Purposes C-15
C-8 Percentage Breakdown of Bay Area VMT, 1980 C-16
C-9 Work Trips by Transit for Selected Control Options C-17
D-l Passenger Car Model Distribution (as of December 1972)
for San Francisco Air Basin D-5
D-2 Distribution of Average Annual Mileage and Cumulative
Mileage by Vehicle Age D-6
D-3 Weighted Annual Travel by Model Year and Total Annual
Travel for Light Duty Vehicles San Francisco Air Basin
for Base Year 1971 D-8
D-4 CO, THC, and NOX Light Duty Vehicle Exhaust Emission
Factors for the State of California Base Year 1971 D-10
D-5 CO, THC, and NOX Light Duty Vehicle Exhaust Emission
Factors for San Francisco Effective After July 1974 D-10
D-6 Light Duty Crankcase and Evaporative Hydrocarbon Emissions
by Model Year in California Base Year and Projected Years D-l2
D-7 Summary of Vehicular Travel, San Francisco Air Basin D-13
D-8 Heavy Duty Gasoline-Powered Vehicle Exhaust Emission
Factors, California Only D-18
D-9 Heavy Duty Gasoline-Powered Vehicle Crankcase and
Evaporative Hydrocarbon Emissions by Model Year for
California D-18
D-10 Commercial Vehicle Model Year Distribution D-20
D-ll VMT for Heavy Duty Gasoline Powered Vehicles for (Base
Year 1971) San Francisco Air Basin D-22
D-l2 Calculated VMT for Heavy-Duty Diesel Powered Vehicles -
San Francisco Air Basin D-23
D-13 Diesel Baseline RHC Emissions - San Francisco Bay Area D-25
D-14 Motorcycle (2 Stroke) RHC Baseline Emissions - San
Francisco Air Basin D-26
D-15 Motorcycle (4 Stroke) RHC Baseline Emissions - San
Francisco Air Basin D-27
E-l Emission Factors Per Landing-Takeoff Cycle for Aircraft
(Lbs/Engine and Kg/Engine) E 2
E-2 EPA Aircraft Classification E-3
E-3 Emission Factors for Class 3 Aircraft E-4
XII
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LIST OF TABLES (Continued)
Page
E-4 Data for Computation of Projected Civil Aircraft
Emissions E-5
E-5 Aircraft Operations Activity for San Francisco Air
Basin Base Year and Projected Years E-12
E-6 Base Year Aircraft Emissions at San Jose Municipal
Airport E-17
E-7 Base Year and Projected Aircraft Emissions for San
Francisco Bay Area Civilian Airports E-19
E-8 Aircraft Operations at Military Air Bases in the San
Francisco Bay Area E-24
E-9 Distribution and Growth of Aircraft Activity at Military
Air Bases in the San Francisco Bay Area E-25
E-10 Aircraft Emissions from Military Air Bases in the San
Francisco Bay Area E-26
F-3 Standard Taxi-Idle Emission Factors F-3
F-4 Standard Taxi-Idle Emissions - SFO F-4
F-5 Development of Modified Taxi-Idle Emission Factors - SFO F-7
F-6 Modified Taxi-Idle Emissions - SFO F-7
F-7 Reductions in Taxi-Idle Emissions Due to Modified Taxi-
Idle at San Francisco International F-8
F-8 Standard Taxi-Idle Emissions - OAK F-9
F-9 Development of Modified Taxi-Idle Emission Factors - OAK F-9
F-10 Modified Taxi-Idle Emissions - OAK F-10
F-ll Reductions in Taxi-Idle Emissions Due to MAdified Taxi-
Idle - OAK F-10
F-12 Standard Taxi-Idle Emissions - SJC F-ll
F-13 Development of Modified Taxi-Idle Emission Factors - SJC F-ll
F-14 Modified Taxi-Idle Emissions - SJC F-12
F-15 Reductions in Taxi-Idle Emissions Due to Modified Taxi-
Idle - OAK F-12
F-16 Total Emission Reductions Due to Modified Taxi-Idle F-13
xi u
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1.0 SUMMARY
This report presents the results of an in-depth analysis of air
pollution control measures potentially applicable to the San Francisco
Bay Intrastate Air Quality Control Region (AQCR). The study was directed
at identifying measures which would allow attainment of the National
Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) promulgated pursuant to the Clean
Air Act of 1970. Target date for attainment of the standards is as soon
after 1975 as possible and no later than 1977.
The acceptability of the revised state implementation plans will be
more critically evaluated than the original plans (submitted January 31,
1972), largely because of the decision of the Court of Appeals for the
District of Columbia Circuit in NRDC versus EPA, Case No. 72-1522
(January 31, 1973). This decision holds that an adopted state implemen-
tation plan must contain measures which, if implemented, would achieve
the NAAQS by May 31, 1975. The question of whether or not two-year exten-
sions will be granted will be more strictly interpreted and based in part
on more detailed technical support justification demonstrating such need.
Portions of this report are intended to provide such technical support.
This document is an attempt to assess air pollution trends and con-
trol requirements for achieving the NAAQS in the San Francisco Bay Area.
The pollutants of most concern are carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide,
and photochemical oxidants. Of these, the most severe problems have
come from photochemical oxidants, primarily ozone. In fact, it is incon-
ceivable over the next decade at least, that oxidants will not be the
limiting constraint for the region being able to achieve the NAAQS.
Since ozone is a secondary pollutant (i.e., it is not a directly emitted
contaminant), its control depends on eliminating the reactive hydro-
carbons and nitrogen oxides which lead to its formation.
A major conclusion of the present study is that, in view of the
severe air pollution in the San Francisco Bay Area and the extensive
control measures which would be necessary to meet the NAAQS, a two year
extension for reaching the oxidant standard is clearly justified. Any
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attempts to achieve this standard sooner would result in a major social
and economic disruption of the region. As currently projected controls
eliminate major sources of pollution, the alternatives are putting addi-
tional controls onto already well controlled sources and/or controlling
heretofore uncontrolled, minor sources. The former is frequently tech-
nology-limited, while the latter is very costly since the sources are
many and relatively diffuse. Superimposed on the technical and economic
constraints are social, institutional, and legal considerations. The
impacts associated with more stringent controls will doubtlessly encounter
obstacles on these fronts as well.
1.1 FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The following sections summarize the major findings, conclusions,
and recommendations that have emerged as a result of this study.
1.1.1 Findings
t Although air quality trends in the San Francisco Bay Area show
improvement, recent air monitoring data for photochemical oxi-
dants are still significantly above the NAAQS. Violations of
the oxidant standard are both widespread throughout the Bay
Area and fairly frequent, especially during the summer months.
The topography and climate of the Bay Area are conducive
to high oxidant levels being formed, especially in certain
inland areas such as Livermore, Fremont, and San Leandro.
0 Mobile emission sources (in particular, light duty motor
vehicles) are and will continue to be the major contributors
to the air pollution problem. However, because of projected
controls, their relative contribution is slowly decreasing.
Aircraft, motorcycle, heavy duty vehicle, and stationary source
emissions are significant, minor sources of pollution; these
sources become more significant as the target dates for com-
pliance to air quality standards near.
Existing and projected public transit services can handle
modest increases in ridership over the short term.
The present transportation planning efforts to meet transpor-
tation needs of the Bay Area's residents is long range in
scope and geared to shaping land use patterns as well as
transportation systems.
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The present life styles of the Bay Area appear incompatible
with the established air quality goals; any foreseeable
solution (if it exists) will have a major impact on the
socio-economic fiber of the region.
t A multiplicity of agencies and organizations would be
involved and/or affected by attempts to implement certain
control measures; it appears that funding and institutional
constraints will be very significant for many of the
measures evaluated.
The required enabling legislation to allow for several high
priority control measures (e.g., mandatory inspection/main-
tenance and catalytic converter retrofit) will be difficult
to obtain during the 1973 legislative session.
1.1.2 Conclusions
0 Presently planned stationary and mobile source controls
are inadequate for achieving the ambient air quality goals;
therefore, additional control measures are clearly
indicated.
t In 1977, attainment of the air quality standards through
additional light duty vehicle controls would require their
almost complete elimination.
Controls on motorcycles, aircraft, heavy duty vehicles, and
stationary sources could result in significant reductions
by 1975 to 1977.
Annual inspection/maintenance is necessary to obtain the
full benefit of federal and state vehicle emission control
programs.
0 Catalytic converter retrofits offer major emission reduction
potential. However, questions regarding the availability of
lead free fuel and the widespread applicability of the
devices remain unanswered.
0 Presently planned transportation improvement programs will
result in very minor air quality improvements.
0 Control measure evaluations for vehicular miles of travel
(VMT) reduction offer only modest gains towards the air quality
objectives. Adequate alternative means of transportation avail-
able in the Bay Area are limited, more so in outlying regions
than the areas close to downtown San Francisco.
0 VMT reduction measures which offer the greatest potential
generally affect areas utilizing public transit the most;
therefore, issues of equity are raised.
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1.1.3 Recommendations (see Chapter 8)
It is recommended that the Phase I control measures be implemented
as quickly as possible. The continuation of the State's ongoing motor
vehicle control program plus these measures should result in a signifi-
cant improvement of the air quality by 1975 to 1977. The final decision
regarding the implementation of the Phase II measures should be deferred
until a careful analysis is made of the impact of such measures upon
the residents of the region. Many issues noted in the report remain
to be resolved. One critical issue which must be resolved is a possible
conflict between the short term requirements being imposed by the Clean
Air Act of 1970 and the long range transportation planning goals of the
Bay Area. It is unclear if the short range measures being considered
are consistent and compatible with the long range transportation system
envisioned for the 1980's. If, through careful land use and transporta-
tion planning, the Bay Area can be directed toward less automobile de-
pendence (an explicit goal of the region), every effort should be made
to allow for this with a smooth transition. Short term controls which
may be counterproductive to a smooth transition to long range goals will
have to be carefully weighed before full implementation. This is espe-
cially critical in light of available funding for a limited number of
of short and long term options.
1.2 LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS
The process of developing a demonstrably effective control strategy
is fraught with many analytical difficulties and uncertainties. The
severity and extent of specific uncertainties vary widely. Overall, many
simplifying assumptions are made because data are either unavailable or
limited in nature. In some cases, the errors resulting from certain
simplifying assumptions tend to be offset by other assumptions; at other
times, the errors from certain assumptions tend to be compounded.
The proposed control strategy represents the compilations, analysis,
and interpretation of a large data base to arrive at the best estimates
of the existing air pollution situation as well as requirements and
methods for attaining the promulgated air quality standards. The nature
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of the analytical methodologies and assumptions used for strategy develop-
ment tend to result in propagation of errors. Therefore, the end result
is likely to contain a significant degree of uncertainty.
Many issues which were identified as deserving closer scrutiny would
not be examined in detail because of time and budgeting constraints. It
is therefore highly recommended that as more comprehensive and accurate
data become available, they be used to reevaluate the air pollution situa-
tion. This is especially important for regions, such as San Francisco,
requiring large reductions in emissions to achieve the air quality goals.
To be acceptable, an air pollution control strategy must reduce
emission levels sufficiently to allow for the attainment and maintenance
of NAAQS. In addition, an implementable control strategy must consider
the economic factors associated with its adoption as well as the social
and political changes necessary to accommodate each specific control
measure. Unfortunately, in many instances, these goals are diametrically
opposed to each other. Strategies which are reasonably acceptable and
potentially implementable are relatively ineffective. Conversely, stra-
tegies which are effective at reducing emissions sufficiently are also
the least likely to be implemented and result in major socio-economic
impacts. Although they are difficult to quantify, an attempt has been
made in this study to discuss the socio-economic impacts and political
aspects of the various measures.
The complexion of the air pollution problem centers around the
assumptions made for the emission sources and the possible controls. A
summary is presented below of several key assumptions made here, their
limitations, and their impact on the overall problem.
1.2.1 Emission Factors
The mobile source emission estimates presented in this study are
based on the latest available Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emis-
sion factors. These emission factors are continually being revised in
light of in-use and new vehicle testing programs being conducted by the
EPA and others. It is highly recommended that newer and more reliable
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emission factors be utilized as they become available to recompute the
severity of the motor vehicle emissions.
Preliminary data indicate that emissions generated during the first
few minutes of vehicle operation represent a large portion of the total
emissions during any individual trip. This implies the reduction of
total vehicle trips may be more important than reducing the vehicle
miles traveled. Wendell, et.al. (1-1) have presented some preliminary
data which illustrates the disproportionate share of emissions which are
emitted when the engine is cold (Figure 1-1).
CO
O
8
Minutes
12
16
Figure 1-1. 1975 Carbon Monoxide Emissions
Based on the General Motors Report to the
Environmental Protection Agency (Reference 1-1)
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Table 1-1 shows the percentage of carbon monoxide (CO) emissions
which occur during the first two minutes of a "typical" trip. Also
shown in Table 1-1 is the increasing importance of cold start emissions
as motor vehicles become less polluting (increasing model year). The
situation for hydrocarbon emissions is similar, with 80 percent from a
typical trip occurring during the first two minutes.
Table 1-1. Cold Start CO Emissions for Various Model Year Vehicles
Model Year % Emissions During First 2 Minutes
1960-1967 45
1968-1970 55
1971 62
1972 69
1973 76
1974 83
1975-1980 90
It is very apparent that with the advent of effective catalytic converters,
the cold start emissions become the largest part of the vehicular emis-
sions. This, of course, is because of the warm up times necessary for
the catalysts to reach optimal operating conditions.
Cold start emissions, defined as the emissions emitted after a
vehicle has not been in operation during the previous eight or twelve
hours, occur primarily during the early morning as commuters start their
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home-to-work trip. These starts are spatially well distributed because
of the typical residential land use patterns.
The relative importance of cold start emissions is different for CO
and photochemical oxidant problems. CO problems generally arise when the
pollutant emission density builds up, e.g., congested central business
district (CBD) traffic. The problem is dominated by short term diffusion
and transport and can be alleviated with either a temporal or spatial
redistribution of the pollutant loading. Because cold start emissions
are spatially well dispersed, they do not play as important a role in CO
problems as, low speeds or stop and go traffic emissions.
On the other hand, cold start emissions do play a significant role
in the severity of photochemical oxidant problems. Because of the reaction
time needed to initiate and build up ozone levels, oxidant pollution has
a more regional character. The most effective control strategy is to
eliminate the total amount of reactants which can lead to ozone formation.
Redistributing the emissions will only transfer the problem in time and/
or space and not significantly reduce the severity of total oxidant levels.
Since cold start emissions form a great part of total hydrocarbon emis-
sions, strategies aimed at eliminating total trips, e.g., by substituting
communication links to fulfill trip purpose, should be more important
for oxidant control than measures which simply reduce total VMT.
Due to time and budgetary constraints, the impact of hot versus cold
starts on total emissions and on the distribution pattern of pollutants,
as well as the subsequent effect on air quality, was not analyzed in this
study. It has been shown in Los Angeles that cold start emissions do
play an important role in the nature of the oxidant problem (1-2, 1-3).
It is therefore recommended that in future studies, which do employ more
advanced modeling techniques, evaluation of the effect of hot versus
cold start emissions be considered in control strategy development.
1.2.2 Traffic Data Projection
Historically, traffic data projections have not been collected with
the intent of using them for estimating motor vehicle emissions. The
-8-
-------
data, including vehicle flow speeds and model mixes, had to be reworked
into a format appropriate for emission calculations. Potential inaccu-
racies were introduced by this process.
Projections of motor vehicle growth and VMT have been prepared by
several different agencies, and little unaminity has been found concern-
ing appropriate growth rates. Changes in traffic patterns and transit
usage should be closely monitored between now and 1977 so that deviations
can be determined and appropriate adjustment made in the control strategy.
1.2.3 Hydrocarbon Reactivity Assumptions
The limiting constraint for attaining the NAAQS in the San Francisco
Bay Area is the photochemical oxidant standard. This implies that the
most stringent controls are needed for reactive hydrocarbons (RHC) [and
to a lesser degree the nitrogen oxides (N0x)j which lead to oxidant
formation.
Rollback calculations, which assume that normal oxidant concentra-
tions are proportional to total RHC emissions, require certain assumptions
regarding which components of the hydrocarbon emission inventory are to
be considered reactive. To date, there have been numerous definitions
of "reactive," many of which are inconsistent with one another. Most
of these data have been based on smog chamber results which attempt to
simulate certain atmospheric conditions. They are intended to show which
hydrocarbon species will result in oxidant formation and under what con-
ditions oxidants can be formed.
One frequently voiced objection to these types of results is their
applicability to the "real world" situation. Even if the various sci-
entific teams could agree on smog chamber results, the issue of the
validity of the results in an urban environment with a wide range of
particulate loadings, solar intensities, humidities, temperatures, and
inversions, remains unresolved.
The reactivity assumptions used in this study have been provided
by either the EPA or the California Air Resources Board (ARB). In several
cases, significant differences of opinion exist on reactivity of certain
-9-
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emission categories. The impact of different reactivity assumptions is
very significant and can substantially affect the complexion of the pro-
blem. Using rollback calculations, higher reactivity assumptions, in and
of themselves, do not make attainment of the standards more difficult.
The key issue is the relative reactivity of different source types. If
sources that are more easily controlled are considered to be more highly
reactive, standard attainment actually becomes easier to demonstrate in
strategy analysis.
Because of marked difference in control method effectiveness because
of different reactivity assumptions, it is highly recommended that addi-
tional studies be initiated to clarify many of the uncertainties which
presently exist regarding the definition of hydrocarbon reactivity.
These studies should be aimed at resolving the inconsistencies which
now exist among various industries and governmental agencies. More im-
portant, these studies could advance our knowledge of hydrocarbon reactiv-
ity as it pertains to oxidant formation in our urban environments.
1.2.4 The Rollback Method
A key calculation in control measure assessment centers on the
relationship between projected emission levels and expected ambient air
quality. Because of time and contractual constraints, it was not possible
to utilize sophisticated modeling techniques in this study to develop
this relationship. Rather, control strategy reductions'were based on
simple rollback assumptions which relate emissions and air quality on
a proportional basis.
For oxidant, the simplistic linear rollback calculation actually
understates the requirements for attaining clean air. That is, if a
linear rollback model is used, the strategies which are developed will
be more lenient than those which would be required according to either
a statistical model or an .analytical model which incorporates the photo-
chemistry. This is documented by several studies(l-4 to 1-7) in which
nonlinear models are used. These studies demonstrate that linear roll-
back calculations can greatly understate required RHC emission reductions
for attaining the oxidant air quality standard.
-10-
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The implications of this are clear. Even though the proposed con-
trol strategies evaluated are likely to result in substantial socio-
economic impact, it appears that even with their successful implementa-
tion, there is no guarantee that the oxidant standard can be achieved
by the required date. In fact, it is very probable that the standard
will not be reached.
In view of the shortcomings of the linear rollback method, it is
recommended that more rigorous modeling techniques, i.e., statistical
and analytical, be used as they become available to reassess the impact
of the recommended control strategy. These calculations should be re-
peated between now and 1977 as more recent air quality and emission
inventory information become available.
-11-
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1.3 REFERENCES
1-1. R. E. Wendell, J. E. Narco, and K. G. Croke, "Emission, Predic-
tion and Control Strategy: Evaluation of Pollution from Trans-
portation Systems," Journal of the Air_ Pollution Control
Association. 23 (2), 91-97, 1973.
1-2. P. J. Roberts, M. K. Liu, and P. M. Roth, "A Vehicle Emissions
Model for the Los Angeles Basin Extensions and Modifications,"
a continuation of Appendix A of Development of a Simulation
Model for Estimating Ground Level Concentrations of Photochemi-
cal Pollutants, Report R72-8, Systems Applications, Inc.,
April 1972.
1-3. J. R. Martinez, R. A. Nordsieck, and A. Q. Eschenroeder,
Morning Vehicle - Start Effects of Photochemical Smog, CR-2-191,
General Research Corporation, Santa Barbara, California, June
1971.
1-4. R. I. Larsen, D. L. Worley, and J. R. Zimmerman, "A Method for
Calculating Precursor Reduction Needed to Achieve an Oxidant
Air Quality Standard," EPA, National Environmental Research
Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711.
1-5. J. C. Trijonis, An Economic Air Pollution Control Model Appli-
cation: Photochemical Smog in Los Angeles County in 1975,
Ph.D. Thesis, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,
California.
1-6. A. Q. Eschenroeder, J. R. Martinez and R. A. Nordsieck, Eval-
uation of a Photochemical Pollution Simulation Model, Monthly
Technical Progress Narrative, General Research Corporation,
Santa Barbara, California, December 15, 1972.
1-7. S. D. Reynolds, M. K. Liu, and P. M. Roth, Evaluation of a
Simulation Model for Estimating Ground Level Concentrations
of Photochemical Oxidants, Monthly Technical Progress Narrative
No. 12, Systems Applications, Inc., December 8, 1972.
-12-
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2.0 INTRODUCTION
This report presents the results of a study to evaluate potential
control measures which will allow for attainment of the NAAQS between
1975 to 1977 in California's San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR. The
control measure evaluation includes an assessment of technical effective-
ness and economic impact as well as institutional, political, and social
feasibility. The study was conducted by the Transportation and Environ-
mental Operations of TRW, Inc., in conjunction with the DeLeuw, Gather
and Company organization, a fully-owned subsidiary.
This.chapter is intended to provide the reader with some background
information on the air pollution problem in the San Francisco Bay Area.
The objectives of the study as well as a regional description and a pro-
blem definition are presented. Chapter 3 discusses the baseline data
to be used in control strategy development. Air quality data is first
analyzed in order to select a base year. A baseline emission inventory
is then organized. Finally, the transportation data base is assembled.
Chapter 4 develops the proposed control strategy. A menu of alter-
native control measures is first presented. Each control technique is
briefly discussed. This information along with the baseline data of
Chapter 3, allows a critique of the California ARB Implementation Plan.
Finally, a proposed control strategy is presented. The strategy is divided
into two phases. The first phase is highly recommended and should be
instituted as soon as possible to achieve maximum effectiveness. The
second phase measures appear to be necessary to achieve the desired air
quality goals, and while there is no question they would result in cleaner
air, the associated impact of these measures is so overwhelming, they are
not recommended for implementation.
Following the proposed control strategy, Chapter 5 discusses the
economic impact of the controls. Chapter 6 examines social impacts which
are closely related to the institutional and political feasibility of the
proposed measures and which dictate what measures will ultimately be im-
posed upon the region. Chapter 7 focuses on the government organizations
-13-
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involved with transportation in the San Francisco Bay Area and on the
transportation funding mechanisms which are available.
Finally, Chapters 8 and 9 deal with control strategy implementation.
The discussion includes the regulating agencies involved, time scheduling,
legal considerations, and means for monitoring implementation progress.
Potential obstacles to implementation are highlighted. These chapters also
point out the dichotomy of the regions' desire for clean air and its
apparent unwillingness to give up the private auto for most transportation
requirements. Controls for reducing air pollution are acceptable only
up to a point, the point being when the controls infringe on present life
styles. An important question is how severely restrictive measures are
to be implemented and enforced and whether or not the anticipated impact
on the public are warranted.
Following the main body of the report are a series of appendices
which contain related, additional support information. Time was too
limited to undertake a detailed analysis of all the reports available
on the subject. The most important information sources which have been
used in preparing this document have been included in the reference lists
following each chapter.
2.1 STUDY OBJECTIVES
The purpose of this study is to develop control strategies which
demonstrate attainment of the carbon monoxide (CO), oxidant, and nitrogen
dioxide (N02) air quality standards in the San Francisco Bay Intrastate
AQCR as soon after 1975 as possible but no later than 1977. In doing so,
this work is an extension of other EPA studies to develop transportation
control strategies for critical AQCR's across the country the Six
Cities Study (2-1) and the Fourteen Cities Study (2-2). This report will
follow up on much of the work initiated in that study, extend it to the
San Francisco situation, and update much of the applicable California
information which has changed since that study was released.
The majority of EPA studies have centered on the development of
control strategies for transportation sources only in order to meet the
NAAQS. The severity of air pollution in San Francisco and the emission
-14-
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reduction requirements necessary to achieve the air quality goals, re-
quire an evaluation of all sources. As in the Los Angeles situation,
transportation controls in and of themselves, are insufficient for re-
ducing emissions to the required levels. The anticipated reduction in
motor vehicle emissions which will result from the federal new car stan-
dards will mean that, towards the end of this decade, the percentage con-
tribution from motor vehicles to the total pollution load will be signi-
ficantly reduced. Additional controls imposed on motor vehicles will
become less effective overall. Other sources will be very important,
and they must be controlled to achieve the NAAQS.
Of the pollutants cited above, only CO and photochemical oxidants
presently exceed the promulgated standards. Annual N0£ averages are
currently below the national standard and are projected to stay below
the limits established. Like Los Angeles and many other California areas,
by far the most difficult standard to attain in the Bay Area is the 0.08
ppm one-hour average for photochemical oxidants. In the near future,
the oxidant standard will certainly be the limiting constraint.
r
2.2 REGIONAL DESCRIPTION
The San Francisco Bay Area Intrastate AQCR, also known as the San
Francisco Bay Area Air Basin, consists of all of seven counties -- namely,
Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and
Napa and portions of two others -- southwestern Solano and southern
Sonoma.
2.2.1 Physiography
Topographically, it resembles a shallow bowl with a low central bay
area, rimlike mountains, and connecting valleys. The region covers more
than 5,000 square miles and includes some 4.6 million people and 2.7
million motor vehicles. Figure 2-1 presents a map of the region including
its development pattern and illustrates its location within California.
Table 2-1 illustrates the vast differences in the intensity of human
activity over the nine county region. San Francisco County has more than
15 percent of the region's population but less than 1 percent of its land
area. Included portions of Napa, Sonoma and Solano Counties together
-15-
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Regional Focus -
San Francisco CBD
Location Of
Basin
SantaJiosa
Higher Density
San Francisco,
Daly City,
Berkeley,
Oakland
Lower Density --
Remainder
Urban Area
Steep Topography
SAN
FRANCIS
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments
Figure 2-1. San Francisco Bay Intrastate AQCR
-16-
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Table 2-1. San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin Population and Land Area
Population
Bounty
Alameda
Contra Costa
Marin
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
Source:
County's Population
in Basin - 1970
1,063
558
203
79
699
556
1,070
124
178
4,533
,800
,100
,300
,400
,200
,000
,000
,500
,900
,200
State of Cal
The State of
Maintaining
Based
23.5
12.3
44.5
1.8
15.4
12.3
23.6
2.7+
3.S+
% of County's
Population in Basi
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
79.7
87.2
Area
n Basin
733
733
520
787
45
447
1300
358
620
100-° . 5,543
i form' a, The Resources Agency, Air Resources
California Implementation Plan for Achieving
the Nati
on information
onal Ambient Air Quali
supplied by the State
in
(Mi
13
13
9
14
0
8
23
6
11
100
Board
and
2}
.2
.2
.4
.2
.8
.1
.4
.5
.2
.0
,
ty Standards, January 30,
Department of
Density 9
(Persons/Mi^)
1451
761
391
101
15,338
447
823
348
289
818
1972.
Finance.
-------
hold less than 9 percent of the region's population but 32 percent of
its land area. A narrow bayside plain extends for a distance of 100
miles along the central and southern portions of the bay, containing
almost uninterrupted urban development. This strip, comprising only
some 10 percent of the region's land area, holds 80 percent of the re-
gional population and some 90 percent of its employment. The lineal
pattern of development has maintained a strong regional focus on the San
Francisco CBD with a surrounding concentration of higher density develop-
ment in the remainder of San Francisco, Daly City, and older low-lying
sections of Oakland and Berkeley. The remainder of the Bay Area is of
lower density and highly auto-oriented, not unlike development in other
cities in the Western United States. In 1980 about three-quarters of
Bay Area residents are expected to live in what the Bay Area Transporta-
tion Study (2-3) termed low density areas -- zones with less than 10 dwell
ing units per net residential acre.
The region's urban corridors are linked together by a limited number
of bridges, tunnels, and freeway facilities. Often only one critical
link exists across a topographic barrier, forming a natural constriction
on vehicular flow (Figure 2-2), a factor which contributes to relatively
high transit usage in commuting. About 55 percent of the commuting to
the San Francisco CBD is by transit while roughly 20 percent of all Bay
Area employees traveling over 10 miles prefer bus or rail over the auto-
mobile (2-4).
2.2.2 Meteorology
The climate of the San Francisco Bay Area is typical of California
coastal zones. Late fall and winter are cool and windy and experience
the greatest part of the region's moderate rainfall. Spring weather is
variable. Most summer days are dry and sunny.
Wind patterns in the basin vary as a function of location and as a
function of both time of day and season. The most frequent daylight
pattern is a moderate sea breeze radiating from the coast and central
Bay Area. In the evenings, the wind direction frequently reverses to a
land breeze. Air movement and stability are usually dominated by the
-18-
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San Francisco
Access Constraints
San Francisco -
Oakland Bay Bridge
Golden Gate Bridge
I 280
Bayshore Freeway
(U.S.101)
Other Access
Constraints
Caldecott Tunnel
(CH 24)
Dublin Canyon
(I 580)
San Mateo Bridge
Dumbarton Bridge
Carquinez Bridge
Richmond-San Rafael
Bridge
Source: Metropolitan Transportation Commission
Figure 2-2. Key Access Constraints Within the Bay Area
-19-
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Pacific high pressure zone and the associated subsidence temperature
inversion. The inversion is strongest during the summer and early fall,
varying daily from 1,000 to 3,000 feet.
Winds normally provide adequate ventilation to the Bay Area. How-
ever, during the summer and early fall, the persistent temperature in-
version is sometimes accompanied by nearly stagnant wind conditions.
This situation leads to an excessive accumulation of pollutants. Since such
days are associated with moderate to high temperature and solar radiation,
a photochemical smog problem results.
2.3 PROBLEM DEFINITION
Air quality measurements taken in the San Francisco region show air
pollution to be a severe problem. The severity is indicated by several
indices -- the geographical extent of the problem, the number of days per
year various standards are violated, and the magnitude by which standards
are exceeded. The extent of the problem is summarized in Table 2-2
which shows the highest readings and number of days certain levels were
exceeded at various sites throughout the basin. As shown, maximum oxi-
dant readings often exceed the air quality standard by more than four-
fold. Due to moderately favorable climatology, the frequency of viola-
tions at any given station is at most, about one day in seven.
It is interesting to note that many of the Los Angeles regional
characteristics are also prevalent in the San Francisco Bay Area. Over-
all, the population density in the San Francisco Bay Area is less than
in the Los Angeles region. Only San Francisco County has a high popula-
tion density, (15,338 persons/square mile), compared to the regional
818 persons/square mile.
The severest air pollution does not occur in the active, high
density central area, but rather downwind of that area. In the South
Coast Air Basin, the most critical problem areas are places like Riverside,
Indio, and Banning -- areas east of central Los Angeles. In the San
Francisco region, severe problems exist in San Leandro, Fremont, and
Livermore all regions downwind of the more populous, urban areas.
Even the outskirts of the airshed experience pollution, and it has
-20-
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Table 2-2. Air Pollution in the Bay Area
(1971-1972) ;.t
Location of
S t a 1 1 o n s
i
OX I DAN T
j 1971
1 ^
f-'axiniu;-: Viol a tioiiS
Scr: Fi'd-ci-iCO ,' ' -> ?
! Richmond
Pi t tsDur'j
Walnut Creek
Odklana
San Leandro
Fremont
Li verr-ore
Sjr Jo so
«cJv,cGfl City
Burl j r.qane
Pet a 1 uii'a
NdDd '
Va'llejo
Fairfield
2t 1
.I1.1 23
./3 36
. 3 i 10
.36 21
.33 45
.23 52
.15 14
.28 17
.17 5
.12 6
.14 9
.19 11
.18 12
Loo Latys i
Mo'jntdin View
Santa Rosa
-
1972
Maximum Violations
. 08 0
.17 5
.12 7
.19 25
.17 30
.12 1
.17 15
.34 44
.22 27
.20 19
.28 17
.14 8
.07 0
. 1 R 20
.26 15
.13 4
.21 15
.19 10
-
CARBON MONOXIDE
1971
3 4
Maximum Violations
11 3
8 0
13 1
6 0
-
11 2
-
9 0
8 0
17 12
7 0
10 1
-
0 0
13 6
-
-
_
-
1972
Maximum Violations
11 .7 1
7.7 0
9.1 0
5.1 0
7.2 0
6.5 0
6.5 0
13.8 11
9.2 0
9.9 0
7.4 0
12.1 5
_ _
_
-
NITROGEN
DIOXIDE
1971
Annua 1
Average
.027
.024
.021
.022
_
.040
-
.025
.034
.030
-
.013
.018
_
_
_
.020
3
Highest hourly average in ppm
"Nurr.ber of days one hour average of 0.10 ppm was exceeded
Highest 12-hour average in ppm
Nun.ber of days 12-hour average of 10 ppm was exceeded
Bay Area Air Pollution Control District
-------
frequently been suggested that pollution from the Bay Area spills over
into adjacent regions, e.g., the Sacramento Valley Air Basin. This is
analogous to transport of pollutants in the Southeast Desert from the
South Coast Air Basin.
As indicated by Figure 2-3, recent trends for the Bay Area show a
significant improvement in air quality. The majority of monitoring
stations show improvements, with only a couple of sites experiencing
more adverse conditions. Appendix A presents a more complete description
of recent air quality throughout the Bay Area as well as a map of the
monitoring stations.
-22-
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.30T
.25 -
San Francisco x
San Rafael O
San Leandro
San Jose +
Redwood City A
Walnut Creek a
livermore A
Six-Station
District Average
(excluding Livermore)
-K
.20"
.15"
co
i
X
O
.10
.05
62
63
64
65
66
YEAR
67
68
69
70
71
72
Figure 2-3. Trend of Average High-Hour Oxidant Concentrations for Days with Comparable Temperature
and Inversion Conditions (April through October Photochemical Oxidant Seasons, 1962-1971)
-------
2.4 REFERENCES
2-1. Institute of Public Administration; Teknekon, Inc.; and TRW'
Inc., "Evaluating Transportation Controls to Reduce Motor
Vehicle Emissions in Major Metropolitan Areas," November 20,
1972.
2-2. GCA Corporation and TRW Inc., "Transportation Controls to
Reduce Motor Vehicle Emissions in Major Metropolitan Areas,"
December 1972.
2-3 Bay Area Transportation Study, "Bay Area Mode Split Model,"
1968.
2-4. Bay Area Transportation Study Commission, 1965 and 1980 Travel
Data (computer tape), 1968.
-24-
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3.0 BASELINE DATA
Before a meaninful air pollution control strategy can be developed,
the base conditions of the pollution problem must be thoroughly deter-
mined. Air quality levels must be examined so that overall emission
level reductions required to meet air quality standards can be calculated.
For the present study, this task specifically involves choosing a "base
year," finding air quality for that year, and calculating "rollback"
percentages needed to meet the standard. In addition, an emissions
inventory must be organized for the base year and projected to the
years of interest in the future. This baseline inventory, in con-
junction with the "rollback" calculations, will determine "allowable
emissions" for each pollutant. The inventory will also serve as the
basis for examining the effect of alternate emission control strategies.
Finally, since motor vehicles turn out to be the major source of air
pollution, a transportation base data is needed. This data will help to
determine the effect of various motor vehicle control strategies, in-
cluding reduction in vehicle miles.
'Section 3.1 discusses base year selection, base year air quality,
and rollback calculations. Section 3.2 develops the baseline emission
inventory, (base year inventory plus projections according to a "nominal
control strategy"). Section 3.3 describes the transporation base data
for the San Francisco Bay Area AQCR.
3.1 AIR QUALITY DATA AND BASE YEAR SELECTION
Section 2..3 emphasized that the San Francisco Bay Area AQCR has a
severe air pollution problem. This severity'is reflected in the geographic
extent of the pollution, in the frequency with which standards are
violated, and by the magnitude of standard violations on the most
polluted days. In formulating a control plan for this problem, existing
air quality must be studied to determine what overall emission reductions
factors are needed to attain the federal air quality standards.
According to federal regulations, an adequate control plan must
include sufficient emission reductions to meet the federal air quality
standards even during the most adverse meteorological circumstances.
-25-
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To help assure this goal, it is necessary to design the control plan
around the most difficult set of conditions, i.e., the year with the most
. blatant violation of the federal air quality standards. This is re-
ferred to as the "base year." Because of guidelines provided by the
EPA, the base year was selected from the 1970 to 1972 range.
3.1.1 Base Year Selection
An examination of air monitoring data from 19 stations in the
San Francisco Bay Area AQCR for the years 1970 to 1972 yields the
following conclusions:
The maximal one-hour average oxidant in the region
duriny 1970 to 1972 was .36 ppm at San Leandro on
September 13. 1971.
The maximal eight-hour average CO in the region
during 1970 to 1972 was 17 ppm at San Jose on
. November 4, 1971.
The maximal annual mean N0? in the region during 1970
to 1972 was .048 ppm at San Francisco in 1970, the
second highest was .04 ppm at Oakland in 1971.
The federal standards for oxidant (.08 ppm - 1 hour) and for
CO (9 ppm - 1 hour) were considerably exceeded. The standard for NO,,
(.05 ppm - annual mean) was not exceeded. Also, the NO- standard should
not be exceeded in the future because total NO emissions will decrease
J\
considerably as new car NOX controls take effect.
The two pollutants which exceed the standard and require control
plans both attain maximal violations in 1971. 1971 is therefore the
appropriate choice as "base year" for the San Francisco Bay Area.
3.1.2 Rollback Requirements
Table 3-1 gives the maximal air pollution levels for 1971 in San
Francisco and compares them to the federal standards. The percentage
"roll-back" in RHC emissions (assumed proportional to maximal oxidant)
and in CO emissions to attain the standards is also presented. The base
-26-
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year emission levels for RHC and CO, (calculated in the next section),
are given here also so that "allowable emission levels" can be computed
from the rollback percentages.
Table 3-1. Rollback Calculations and Allowable Emission Levels
Pollutant
Oxidant
(RHC)
Carbon
Monoxide
1971 Air
Pollution
Level
.36 ppm -
1 hour
17 ppm -
8 hours
Federal Air
Quality
Standard
.08 ppm
1 hour
9 ppm
8 hours
Rollback
Required
78%
47%
1971
Emission
Level
567
2573
Allowable
Emission
Level
125
i
1364
3.2 BASELINE EMISSION INVENTORY
Table 3-2 presents the baseline emission inventory for the San
Francisco Bay Area AQCR. Average tons per day emissions are given for
total hydrocarbons (THC), RHC, NO , and CO. Subdivisions are made accord-
/\
ing to source class (stationary, aircraft, and motor vehicle) and within
source class according to specific source type.
The baseline consists of the base year (1971) and projections
through 1975, 1977, and 1980 for a "nominal control strategy." An unam-
biguous definition of "nominal control strategy" is not readily apparent;
control regulations are in a state of rapid flux. The decision as to what
controls enter the baseline inventory is thus somewhat arbitrary. The
important point in constructing the baseline is to carefully delineate
the assumed, nominal controls. In the present study, the baseline case
assumes the following control strategy:
a) For stationary sources, the baseline control is the degree
of control existing in the base year (1971).
b) For aircraft, the baseline is the present federal control
program (burner-can retrofit and emission standards for
future new engines).
c) For heavy duty motor vehicles and diesels, the baseline
consists of the present federal control program. Motor-
cycles have no controls. For light duty vehicles, the
-27-
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present California/federal new car controls and the present
California ARB retrofit program [positive crankcase ventila-
tion (PCV) valve and exhaust devices for 1955 to 1965 and
1966 to 1970 vehicles] are assumed.
To emphasize the relative significance of the two or three major
sources of air pollution in San Francisco, pie charts have been constructed
for the 1971 base year inventory. These charts, shown in Figure 3-1, give
the percent of base year emissions attributable to each source category.
Figure 3-1 also indicates that for each pollutant, motor vehicles (light
duty, heavy duty, diesels, and motorcycles) were the major contributors
in 1971. Other significant sources of RHC were petroleum marketing,
organic solvent use, and aircraft. Fuel combustion in the petroleum,
power, and residential - commercial sectors are also significant contri-
butors of NOV.
X
Table 3-2 indicates that the relative importance of various sources
changes considerably in the 1970's under the assumed baseline controls.
The new car and retrofit control programs greatly reduce emissions from
light duty motor vehicles (LDM). For this decade, the present federal
control strategy essentially just "holds the line" on aircraft, heavy
duty motor vehicles (HDMV), and diesel emissions. With no further control
assumed in the baseline, stationary source emissions continue to expand
as activity in the region grows.
The specific assumptions and calculations used to construct the
baseline inventory are presented in Sections 3.3.1, 3.3.2, and 3.3.3
below. These deal with the stationary source, aircraft, and motor vehicle
source classes respectively and present the details on base year data,
reactivity assumptions, nominal controls, and projection techniques. The
limitations of the assumptions and analysis are also thoroughly discussed.
3.2.1 Stationary Sources
3.2.1.1 Baseline Stationary Source Inventory
The base year, San Francisco Base Area, stationary source inventory
for THC, NO , and CO is derived from 1971 San Francisco Bay Area APCD
A
data(3-1). For most categories, with a slight adjustment for growth,
-28-
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MOTOR VEHICLES
REACTIVE HYDROCARBONS
RHC
NITROGEN OXIDES
NO
PETROLEUM
REFINING
MARKETING
AND.
MOTOR VEHICLES
OTHER 1.9%
AIRCRAFT 2.21
FUELS OF COMBUSTION
PETROLEUM
REFINING
OTHER 0.3%
AIRCRAFT
ORGANIC SOLVENTS
CARBON MONOXIDE
MOTOR VEHICLES
OTHER
AIRCRAFT
Figure 3-1. San Francisco Bay Area AQCR Major Contributors 1971
Base Year Emission Inventory
-29-
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Table 3-2. San Francisco Bay Area AQCR Baseline Emission Inventory,
1971, 1975, 1977, and 1980
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents :
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Chemical Industries
Incineration and
Agricultural Burning
Fuel Coirbustion:
Steam Poner Plants
Residential, Commercial,
and Industrial
Other:
Mineral , Food, Lumber.
and Metallurgical
Subtotal - Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
i971
THC
54
126
'210
24
46
80
21
8
1
2
17
589
34
362
23
9
13
1030
RHC
5
117
42
5
9
16
-
1
-
-
-
195
31
301
19
9
12
567
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
3
-
58
62
8
186
14
326
20
78
-
624
CO
..? _
- .
-
-
-
-
27
25
-
21
10
92
110
2137
131
54
49
2573
1975
THC
61
142
222
25
49
85
25
8
1
2
20
642
38
209
23
10
17
939
RHC
6
132
44
5
10
17
-
1
-
-
-
215
34
170
19
10
15
463
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
3
-
61
66
10
195
21
273
22
103
-
614
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
32
25
-
-
12
78
152
1301
149
62
60
1802
1977
THC
64
150
229
26
51
88
27
8
1
2
22
670
38
154
22
10
19
913
RHC
6
140
46
5
10
18
-
1
-
-
.
225
34
123
18
10
17
428
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
4
-
63
68
11
201
25
213
21
96
-
556
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
34
25
-
-
13
81
177
933
154
56
69
1470
1980
THC
71
166
246
28
54
94
30
8
1
2
24
726
37
94
19
9
22
907
RHC
7
152
49
6
11
19
-
1
-
-
-
245
33
73
16
9
20
396
NOX
55
-
...
-
-
-
4
-
68
73
)2
212
33
137
19
87
-
488
CO
9
-
-.
-
-
-
38
25
-
-
15
87
192
522
163
46
81
1091
O
I
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this data is equivalent to the 1970 ARB inventory for stationary sources
in San Francisco(3-2). Major differences occur only in the agricultural,
incineration, and lumber burning categories, reflecting the assumed
effects of burn-no-burn regulations and other burning regulations estab-
lished by 1971.
Table 3-3 presents the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions used in
the stationary source inventory. For each stationary source except pe-
troleum marketing, 1970 ARB assumptions on hydrocarbon reactivity are
used. These in turn are based on Los Angeles County APCD reactivity
figures. According to recent EPA specifications (3-3), petroleum market-
ing emissions were taken as 93 percent reactive, (whereas the ARB uses
a 45 percent reactivity). Hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions are very
critical to oxidant control strategies. Unfortunately, they are among
the least reliable values used here. The reactivity assumptions will be
discussed in more detail in Section 3.2.1.2.
Table 3-3. Reactivity Assumptions for Stationary Sources
Stationary Source Reactivity (%) Reference
Petroleum Refining 10 3-2
Petroleum Marketing 93 3-3
Organic Solvents
Surface Coating 20 3-2
Dry Cleaning 20 3-2
Degreasing 20 3-2
Other 10 3-2
Burning: (Incineration, 10 3-2
Agricultural, Lumber)
Other: 0 3-2
To complete the baseline stationary source inventory, the 1971 in-
ventory is projected to 1975, 1977, and 1980 with the basic assumption
that the degree of emission control existing in 1971 is preserved. The
1971 control level results from Regulations 1, 2, and 3 of the San
Francisco Bay Area APCD. These baseline controls are outlined in Table 3-4.
-31-
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The effects of these controls are as calculated by the San Francisco
APCD and the California ARB with one exception. It is assumed here that
burn-no-burn regulations are 90 percent effective in limiting emissions
on days when air quality standard violations occur. (No allowance for
this is made by the APCD or ARB.)
Table 3-4. Baseline Stationary Source Controls of Hydrocarbon,
RHC, CO, and NOX for the San Francisco Bay Area AQCR
(Reference 3-4)
Source Control
Petroleum Refining Floating roofs and other systems to
prevent vapor losses.
Petroleum Marketing . Submerged fill pipes at gas stations
Some systems at bulk terminals.
Organic Solvents Rule 66 type regulation limiting
reactive hydrocarbon emissions.
Incineration and No backyard burning. Other open
Agricultural Burning burning restrictions. Agricultural
burn-no-burn regulations.* Limits
on organic emissions from incinerators,
Other: Lumber Burn-no-burn regulations of certain
types of lumber burning.*
*It is assumed that burn-no-burn regulations are 90 percent effective in
limiting emissions on days when air quality standard violations occur.
All of agricultural burning and about 1/2 of lumber burning is covered
by burn-no-burn rules.
The growth rate assumptions in the baseline inventory varied from
source to source. They are summarized in Table 3-5. For most sources
projected growth was assumed proportional to population growth. For
certain industries which are expanding at rates significantly different
from population growth rates, emissions were projected according to
expected growth in constant dollar earnings for those industries. The
choice of constant dollar earnings as a growth indicator was arbitrary.
Emissions for these industries could also have been taken as proportional
to production. However, production type projections make no allowance
for technological improvements. Constant dollar earnings grow more
-32-
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slowly than production and thus have the right sign to allow for techno-
logical process changes. A third type of assumption was used for petro-
leum marketing emissions. Growth was taken as proportional to growth in
gallons sold. The technical aspects of the problem indicate that, for
a given degree of control, this should be a very realistic assumption.
Table 3-5. Growth Assumptions for Stationary Source Emissions
Source
Petroleum
Refining
Petroleum
Marketing
Organic Solvents
Surface Coating
--Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Chemical Industry
Incineration and
Agricultural Burning
Fuel Combustions -
Steam Power Plants
Growth Assumption
THC and RHC as earnings (Reference 3-4)
NOX and CO - no growth (Reference 3-5)
Growth according to projected gasoline
sales (Reference 3-6)
Growth as population (Reference 3-7)
Growth as population (Reference 3-7)
Growth as manufacturing (Reference 3-4)
Growth as population (Reference 3-7)
Growth as earnings (Reference 3-4)
No growth
Growth as population (Reference 3-7)
Fuel Combustion - Growth as population (Reference 3-7)
Residential, Commercial,
and Industrial
Other: Mineral, Food,
Lumber and Metallurgy
Growth as industry specific earnings
(Reference 3-4)
-33-
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3.2.1.2 Limitations of the Analysis
Since the 1971 San Francisco APCD inventory served as the foundation
for the stationary source 1971 base year emission estimates in this study,
the results presented here are subject to the limitation of that inven-
tory. These limitations concern the approximations inherent in emission
factors, source usage data, and source number estimates. There is insuf-
ficient time in the TRW project to review in detail all of these approxi-
mations. Suffice it to note that for THC, NOX and CO emissions from
stationary sources, none of the APCD inventory figures deviated way out
of line from what would be expected by comparison with other regions,
and no major inconsistencies appeared.
The least reliable aspects of the base year and projected baseline
stationary source inventories are the hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions.
Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely complex and difficult issue.
Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked in reactivity according to the percent
of the mixture that can possibly react, or alternatively, according to
some scale which assigns weights to. individual compounds. This ranking
can be based on hydrocarbon consumption rate, N02 formation rate, ozone
levels, or eye irritation production. The ranking depends on the time
allowed for reactions to occur as well as on ratios of the input reactants
(hydrocarbon and NOX).
As was noted in Table 3-3, the present study has used the 1970
California ARB emission inventory reactivity assumptions for all station-
ary sources except petroleum marketing. For petroleum marketing (as well
as. mobile sources), recent EPA reactivity results were employed. The
ARB reactivity scale is founded upon Los Angeles County APCD smog chamber
experiments. The EPA scale is based on experiments and conclusions by
Altshuller (3-8). These two scales yield very different estimates of re-
activity. For instance, diesel exhaust, considered unreactive according
to the ARB, is 99 percent reactive according to the EPA. Evaporated
gasoline, considered 45 percent reactive by the ARB, is 93 percent re-
active according to EPA. It is a troublesome inconsistency in this
study that ARB estimates are used for all but one stationary source,
-34-
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(yielding an average reactivity of less than 20 percent for these sources),
while EPA assumptions are used for petroleum marketing, (93 percent re-
activity), and mobile sources (all of high reactivity). This has been
done, however, so as to include the most recent data (EFA reactivity
figures), even though corresponding data were unavailable for most sta-
tionary sources.
All illustration of how confusing and arbitrary reactivity assump-
tions can be is provided by past inconsistencies in the treatment of
organic solvent reactivity. In the 1970 ARB inventory and the original
California Implementation Plan(3-2), the ARB assumed a 20 percent reac-
tivity for each major class of solvent use (surface coating, dry clean-
ing, degreasing, and "other") and for each county in the San Francisco,
Sacramento, and San Joaquin regional areas. This reactivity was based
on Los Angeles County APCD estimates for "post-rule 66" emissions. How-
ever, although San Francisco had implemented such a rule by 1970, certain
other counties had not. Thus, 20 percent reactivity was used whether
or not a county had adopted Rule 66. Fortunately, this may not be an
extremely bad assumption. For surface coatings, meeting Rule 66 for the
Los Angeles and San Francisco regions has meant, in practice, that it is
met for other California regions [nearly all surface coatings supplied
to these regions are the same as supplied to Los Angeles and San
Francisco(3-9)]. Reactivities of other organic solvents should also be
somewhat uniform throughout California.
It was learned, late in the present study, that organic solvent
reactivity assumptions were changed for the San Francisco region in the
April 20, 1973 ARB plan.* Instead of relying on their previous inventory,
the ARB used the reactivity assumptions of recent, unpublished, San
Francisco APCD work. These reactivity differences, for the 1971 base
year, are outlined in Table 3-6. Surface coating and "other" reacti-
vities are the same. Dry cleaning reactivity has decreased (the 1973
plan assumes 20 percent of petroleum based cleaner is reactive while
*This information cannot be obtained from the April 1973 ARB plan directly
because emissions are not broken down source by source.
-35-
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the 1972 plan assumes it is all reactive). Degreasing reactivity has
greatly increased, (the 1973 plan assumes TCE degreaser is 100 percent
reactive, while the 1973 plan either mis-estimates TCE use or assumes
a lower percent reactivity). In each of the above discrepancies, argu-
ments can be made for either assumption. Because of this inconclusive-
ness and because reactivity assumptions can vary so drastically, hydro-
carbon reactivity values constitute the greatest limitations in the sta-
tionary source analysis.
The projected growth assumptions made here are also subject t;> some
question. Certain stationary source emissions were assumed to grow as
population, others were assumed to grow as industry specific earnings,
and petroleum marketing emissions were assumed to grow as gasoline sales.
None of these is likely to be exactly right. However, petroleum market-
ing is the dominant stationary source for the most significant pollutant,
(RHC), and the growth assumption (as sales) for that source should be
fairly accurate. Other growth assumptions, though less exact, apply to
less significant sources, and control strategy conclusions should be
insensitive to errors in those assumptions.
Table 3-6. ARB Organic Solvent Reactivity Assumptions for San
Francisco (January 1972 Implementation Plan Versus
April 1973 Revisions)
Source THC RHC
January 1972 Plan April 1973 Plan
Organic Solvents:
--Surface Coating 210 42 42
--Dry Cleaning 24 5 1
--Degreasing 46 9 38
Other 80 16 16
Total 360 72 97
-36-
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3.2.2 Aircraft
Table 3-7 summarizes aircraft emissions in the San Francisco Bay
Area for the base year 1971 and projected emission levels for 1975, 1977
and 1980. Emissions are divided into two categories civilian airports
and military air bases. THC emissions are shown to increase in 1975 but
decrease slightly in 1977 and again in 1980. CO and NOX emissions in-
crease in every projected year.
Table 3-7. Aircraft Baseline Emissions in the San Francisco Bay Area
by Airport Type
THC
Tons/Day)
1977
Civilian
Ai rports*
Military
Air Bases
Total
Emissions
1971 1975 19771980
29.91 33.65 33.21 32.90
.4.63 4.53 4.53 4.53
34.54 38.18 37.74 37.43
CO
(Tons/Day)
1971197519771980
102.80 144.30 170.00 184.10
7.48 7.41 7.41 7.41
110.28 151.71 177.41 191.51
NOX
(Tons/Da
T97T1975 1977 1980
10.88 17.84 22.30 30.34
2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91
13.79 20.75 25.21 33.25
*Includes commercial air carrier, air taxi, and general aviation
RHC's are estimated to comprise 90 percent of THC emitted by air-
craft (both turbine-powered and pfston-powered) and are as shown in
Table 3-8.
Table 3-8. RHC Emissions From Aircraft in the San Francisco Bay Area
Year 1971 1975 1977 1980
Emissions 31.09 38.18 37.74 37.43
(tons/day)
The values in Table 3-7 were developed with the use of aircraft
operations data (both historical and projected) published in a report
by the Bay Area APCD (3-10). The operations data was translated into
emission estimates with the use of emission factors published by the
EPA (3-11). These calculations are discussed in detail in Appendix E.
-37-
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The analysis and prediction of aircraft emissions is limited in two
important areas. The first limitation involves the projection of air-
craft activity up to ten years in the future. Normally significant errors
occur in such predictions because of unforeseeable fluctuations in the
economy and the labor market. In fact, no estimates are made for long-
term changes in aircraft operations at military air bases since trends
in these operations are almost totally related to unpredictable circumstances,
The second limitation of the analysis involves the use of the air-
craft emission factors. These factors were derived by EPA from test
data describing the emission rates of particular types of aircraft engines
at thrust settings typical of each mode of the Landing Takeoff (LTD) Cycle.
In cases where the average time-in-mode for each aircraft engine type is
known for an airport, this data can be used directly to estimate yearly
emissions. Unfortunately, the time-in-mode is not known for any airport
in this study. Anticipating such situations, EPA assumed a particular
set of times-in-mode as typical of the worst-case condition at a large
metropolitan airport and assumed an engine type typical of each air-
craft class Jumbo Jet, Long-range Jet, Medium-range Jet, etc. Emis-
sion factors were then calculated as an emission rate per LTO for each
class. Although this is the best one can do considering the poor avail-
ability of data, this method has several inherent weaknesses:
1) The worst-case time-in-mode is not truly representative
of the yearly average operation cycles at any airport.
2) The worst-case time-in-mode is not typical of most airports
in the San Francisco Bay Area, since San Francisco Inter-
national is perhaps the only airport which can be truly labeled
a large metropolitan airport.
3) Although the engine types chosen as typical of particular air-
craft classes may be used on the majority of craft within the
class, the actual emission rates can vary significantly, just
as in the case of motor vehicles, both within the engine type
chosen for each class and between this engine type and others
used on similar aircraft in the class.
The EPA emission factors have been compared to the factors used by
the Bay Area APCD (3-10) and have been found to differ significantly for
-38-
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some classes. The THC emissions predicted for 1975 using the EPA method
is approximately 20 percent higher than the Bay Area APCD value.
3.2.3 Motor Vehicles
Motor vehicles constitute the most substantial source of air con-
taminants in the San Francisco Air Basin. As such, the development and
assessment of transportation control plans depends heavily on the ability
to quantify air pollutants arising from motor vehicle operations. Section
3.2.3.1 provides a discussion of the motor vehicle baseline emission
inventory, quantified for the base year and projected years, under the
applicable baseline control conditions. Section 3.2.3.2 is a discussion
of limitations and constraints inherent in the current state of the art
for motor vehicle emission inventory determinations.
3.2.3.1 Baseline Motor Vehicle Inventory
Environmental pollution resulting from motor vehicle emissions was
investigated by considering separately the contributions from: light-
duty vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline-powered vehicles, heavy-duty diesel
vehicles, and motorcycles. Emissions from these vehicle types were esti-
mated by determining the annual mileage by model distribution of the
region's vehicle population, the overall mileage and average speed of
vehicles in the region, and then applying appropriate emission and re-
activity factors which are attributable to the various vehicle age
classifications.
Characterization of the San Francisco Air Basin vehicle population
into the pertinent classes was accomplished by manipulation of data ob-
tained from the State Department of Motor Vehicles, the California High-
way Patrol, the State Air Resources Board, and the Division of Highways.
Hydrocarbon, CO, and NOX emission factors were obtained from Reference
3-12 and from direct communication with the EPA Region Office 9.
The quantification of RHC assumes foremost importance in the total
emission inventory and in the development of prospective pollution control
plans. It is assumed there is a one-to-one relationship between the
quantity of RHC emissions and atmospheric oxidant concentration. The
-39-
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required 78 percent oxidant rollback being sought for the Sacramento
Regional Area is accomplished by a 78 percent rollback in RHC emissions.
The ranking of hydrocarbon reactivity is a controversial issue and
has been the subject of several studies which when compared, differ widely
in their resultant conclusions. In resolving the difficulties presented
in selecting reactivity factors for this study, TRW was provided with
guidelines from the EPA. The reactivity values, in terms of the emitter
type, are as follows:
Gasoline evaporative emissions (for all vehicles) .93
Light-duty vehicle exhaust .77
Heavy-duty gasoline vehicle exhaust .79
Heavy-duty diesel vehicle exhaust .99
Motorcycles (2-stroke) .96
Motorcycles (4-stroke) .86
The numerical calculations required for estimation of motor vehicle
emissions are carried out with the use of a computer program. The
methodology for these calculations is discussed in Appendix D.
s-
Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates for RHC are shown in
Table 3-9.
Table 3-9. Baseline Motor Vehicle RHC Emissions - San Francisco
Air Basin
RHC (Tons/Day)
Type of Vehicle 1971 1975 1977 1980
Light Duty 301 170 122 73
Heavy Duty (Gasoline) 19 19 18 16
Heavy Duty (Diesel) 9 10 10 9
Motorcycle (2-stroke) 8.4 10.3 11.8 13.9
Motorcycle (4-stroke) 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.8
TOTAL 340.9 213.6 166.7 117.7
Percent Reduction 37.3 51.1 65.4
(Fraction of base year)
-40-
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Because of federal automobile standards imposed in 1975 and specific
vehicle controls required under the California Auto Emission Standards,
vehicle emissions are expected to decrease in future years. By 1975,
motor vehicle RHC emissions will have decreased by 37 percent, and by
1980, the expected reduction is 65 percent. Since motor vehicle emis-
sions constitute the main source of air pollution, it appears evident
that additional vehicle controls will be required to attain the total
78 percent emission rollback and the 1975 federal air quality standards.
While the enforcement of 1975 federal vehicle emission standards will
result in substantial reductions of atmospheric pollution, the full bene-
fit of this control is mitigated by the growth of the vehicle population
and the associated increase in total VMT. Projections for motor vehicle
registrations in future years were made, utilizing a linear multiple
regression analysis (see Appendix B). In this mathematical procedure,
vehicle registration is determined by its relationship to socio-economic
variables (population and per capita income) for which future growth has
already been analyzed by other reliable methods. Projections for daily
vehicle miles driven in the San Francisco Bay Area were available from
transportation studies (3-13). Figure 3-2 shows the projections for light
and heavy duty motor vehicles and for total light duty and heavy duty
vehicle miles traveled in the San Francisco Bay Area. The projections,
devised independently, show very similar trends. Because of the anti-
cipated growth rate of 37 percent in vehicle VMT and 27 percent in
vehicles from the base year to 1980, total vehicle emission reduction
goals are more difficult to attain.
Another factor mitigating the control of motor vehicle emissions
is the fact that heavy duty vehicles, and particularly motorcycles, are
not controlled to the same degree as light duty vehicles. From Figure
3-3 it can be seen that there is a substantial shift in the relative
contribution of the various vehicle types to the degradation of air
quality in future years. For example, motorcycle emissions in 1972 con-
stituted 3.5 percent of all motor vehicle emissions; while by 1980, they
are expected (with present strategy control plans) to account for 17
percent of all motor vehicle RHC emissions. The increasing prominence of
the motorcycle in the overall projected pollution problem is enhanced
-41-
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4x10"
3xlOc
2xl0
o
ce
UJ
CQ
1x10c
LDV = Light duty vehicles
HDV = Heavy duty vehicles
80
LDV (VMT)
60
40
I/O in
LU Oi
_l O
CJ
i co
111 C
LU o
20
HDV (VMT)
.HDV (Registrations)
-I 1 h
_, , , 1_
1971
1975 1977
YEAR
1980
Figure 3-2. Projected VMT and Vehicle Registrations
for San Francisco Bay Air Basin
-42-
-------
] LDV
] HDGV
HDDV
Motorcycles
(2-stroke)
Motorcycles
(4-stroke)
-------
further by the rapid growth rate (64 percent by 1980) expected for this
vehicle type (see Figure 3-3).
Figure 3-4 demonstrates the relative hydrocarbon emission control
trends expected between the various vehicle types. It can be seen that :
motorcycles are the heaviest polluters per mile of travel and that their
emissions are uncontrolled in the baseline projections. The effect of
exhaust control deterioration for older model vehicles, and traffic flow
patterns (speed adjustment factor) in the overall vehicle emission totals
is shown dramatically by comparison of the projected 1980 baseline total
hydrocarbon emissions per VMT value with the future (1976 and after)
federal exhaust emission standards for new vehicles.
10
o;
UJ
Q.
oo
z
O
CQ
O
OL
Q
0
Motorcycles
1976 Federal
Reactive
LDV
HDGV
HDDV
Motorcycles
Emission
HC*,
HDDV
1971
Figure 3-4.
1975
1977
1980
Degree of Baseline Control for Various Vehicle
Types in the San Francisco Air Basin
-44-
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Baseline motor vehicle emission estimates for CO and NOX are shown
in Table 3-10. The table shows that baseline control plans account for
reductions in CO emissions which are nearly equal to the reductions ob-
tained for RHC's. These reductions will result in the attainment of the
federal air quality standards for CO. NOX emissions do not pose an air
quality problem in either the baseline projections or the base year itself.
Table 3-10. Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions in the San Francisco
Air Basin
CO EMISSIONS
Type of Vehicle 1971 1975 1977 1980
(Base Year)
Light Duty 2137 1301 933 , 522
Heavy Duty
Heavy Duty
Motorcycle
Gasoline) 131 149 154 163
Diesel) 54 62 56 46
2-Stroke) 14.2 17.5 20.1 23.6
Motorcycle (4-Stroke) 34.7 42.6 48.5 57.4
Total 2370.9 1572.1 1211.6 812
% Reduction (Fraction of 33.69 48.9 65.7
Base Year)
NOX EMISSIONS
Light Duty 326 273 213 137
Heavy Duty (Gasoline) 20 22 21 19
Diesel) 78 103 96 87
2-Stroke) -
4-Stroke) - - - -
Heavy Duty
Motorcycle
Motorcycle
Total 424 398 330 243
% Reduction (Fraction of 6.13 22.17 42.69
Base Year)
-45-
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3.2.3.2 Limitations in the Analysis
The quantification of air contaminants generated by motor vehicles in
a specific region depends substantially on the availability of empirical
data characterizing emission rates as a function of various aspects of the
regional vehicle population and transportation patterns. Because vehicle
emission rates depend on such a great variety of factors (i.e., type of
vehicle, condition of vehicle, driver habits, traffic flow, climate,
vehicle load, etc.), an accurate functional determination of these rates
is extremely involved, if not impossible. Consequently, the notion of
overall, or "average" emission rate values, becomes a necessary expedient
in the quantification of motor vehicle air contaminants. In the light of
this analytical compromise, average emission data by vehicle model year
have been generated for a "representative" nationwide driving pattern
termed the 1972 Federal Certification Test Procedure, and a limited number
of "region specific" adjustment factors have been determined for application
to the basic emission factors when specific regional data (average speed,
altitude of region, gross weight of vehicle) is available to permit this
adjustment.
Substantial effort was exercised to obtain specific motor vehicle
information characterizing the San Francisco Air Basin such that a maximum
number of "region specific" adjustments could be made. Despite these
adjustments, it was recognized that the final determination of total motor
vehicle emissions involved a procedure containing several inherent limita-
tions which could cause misrepresentation of region-specific characteristics,
The least reliable aspect of the base year and projected baseline
motor vehicle pollutant source inventory concerns hydrocarbon reactivity
assumptions. Hydrocarbon reactivity is an extremely difficult and complex
issue. Hydrocarbon mixtures can be ranked in reactivity according to the
rate at which they react, the mixture that is potentially reactive, or
the products of reaction. The criterion for the ranking of hydrocarbon
reactivity is a controversial issue. The ARB reactivity scale is based
on experiments performed in the Los Angeles APCD smog chamber experi-
ments. The EPA utilizes a reactivity scale based on experiments by
-46-
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Altshuller (3-8). The two scales are highly discrepant. For instance,
diesel exhaust, considered unreactive according to the ARB, is 99 per-
cent reactive according to the EPA. Evaporated gasoline, considered
50 percent reactive by the ARB, is 93 percent reactive according to the
EPA. Since the conventional oxidant rollback procedure centers on the
reduction of the reactive element of the THC inventory, the uncertainty
surrounding the reactivity scale is probably the most significant limi-
tation mitigating the calculation of a meaningful air contaminant inventory.
The determination of total VMT within a specified region is best
determined by transportation studies conducted in the field. VMT may
also be calculated based on vehicle registration and annual vehicle mile-
age data for the region of study (the approach used by State Air Resources
Board), or based on total regional gas consumption and vehicle gas mile-
age data. The latter approaches for calculating VMT were expected to
yield results in accord with the transportation study figures, provided
the regional characterization of vehicular travel used in the analysis
was representative of actual travel in the region (i.e., inflow vehicle
characterization equal to outflow vehicle characterization). A summary
and comparison of the VMT determination is portrayed in Figure 3-5.
While there appears to be little question that transportation studies
yield the most reliable estimates of overall vehicular travel in the base
year, there is some question as to the accuracy of segregation of VMT in
terms of heavy duty and light duty vehicles and in the projection of these
values to future years. The latter estimates involve reliance on limited
or conflicting data and as such have been subject to numerous judgments
in the analysis. These judgments involve the selection of various con-
flicting studies projecting community growth parameters (population,
money earnings,, vehicle registrations, highway and street expansions).
Another inherent difficulty in calculating future motor vehicle
pollution arises from the unpredictability of consumer preferences. A
number of unforseen factors may cause considerable changes in future
vehicle buyer habits. For example, it is noted that substantial increases
-47-
-------
100
80
ia
> s-
- Q.
-------
in small car sales were recorded during the first half of 1973, quite
possibly because of the rapidly rising gasoline prices and the increased
emphasis on energy shortages. In view of recent air quality emphasis and
the subsequent mandatory pollution control retrofit programs now being
discussed, speculations are strong that new and later model car sales will
increase significantly in the regions targeted for controls. For the
purpose of the analysis conducted here, consumer buying habits were con-
sidered fixed, and the vehicle model year distribution and annual mileage
by model distribution were assumed the same for all years in the
estimates.
Another weakness in the emission inventory analysis concerns the
day-by-day variability of air contaminants generated by motor vehicles.
The analysis has included the assumption that pollutant emissions are
discharged at a relatively uniform rate throughout the year, when actually
there may be significant daily and seasonal variations which contribute to
a varying atmospheric oxidant potential. The availability of data and the
limited time available for this study did not permit a quantification of
the parameters associated with this issue.
The methodology utilized in calculating motor vehicles (see Appendix D)
emissions provides for an adjustment of the federal certification test
procedure emission rates on the basis of regional average vehicular speed.
The source of data for regional traffic speeds are transportation studies
conducted by the Division of Highways (3-13). The average speeds are
reported in terms of "weighted average speeds," and are computed by
aggregating the product of VMT and arithmetic average speeds measured
for the various roads and highways throughout the region. The resultant
weighted average speed is therefore somewhat higher than the true arith-
metic average speed. Consequently the corresponding speed adjustment
factor for emissions is somewhat misleading. Because of an absence
of other vehicle speed data, the weighted average speeds were incorporated
in the analysis.
-49-
-------
It is evident that the combined effect of the above limitations is
a basic uncertainty in the reliability of the emission inventory. A
further effect is the untenable status of pollution control strategies
which rely on the analysis. The assumptions and constraints contained
in the methodology are inherently unavoidable at this time. However,
the analysis presented herein is fully representative of current
methodology in motor vehicle emission estimation, and as such, represents
the most valid inventory update available at this time. Further study is
needed to qualify and improve the emission quantification procedures.
3.3 TRANSPORTATION DATA
Key to developing a transportation control strategy for the Bay
Area is an understanding of the diversity of travel patterns, trans-
portation facilities, and transportation opportunities. Travel patterns
and transportation facilities and services are described in the follow-
ing sections.
3.3.1 Travel Patterns
Principal transportation data source for the San Francisco Bay Area
is the work of the Bay Area Transportation Study Commission (BATSC),
predecessor agency to the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC)
which now coordinates transportation planning activities in the area.
Their analyses in terms of trip purpose, origin-destination pattern,
mode of travel (auto, transit, walk, etc.), distribution of vehicle
miles of travel, and average vehicle speed have direct application in
evaluating transportation control strategies.
3.3.1.1 Trip Purpose. Mode, Origin-Destination Pattern
Table 3-11 presents regional average weekday trip making by purpose
for BATSC 1965 base year and forecast years 1980 and 1990. By
interpolation, regional trip totals for the 1971 air quality base year
and forecast years 1975 and 1977 are estimated at 12,366,000,
13,688,000 and 14,358,000, respectively. Work trips and non-home based
trips each account for approximately one-quarter of the total trip
activity.
-50-
-------
Table 3-11. Regional Person Travel Estimates
Trip Purpose
Home-based
Work
Personal business
Social
Recreational
Convenience shopping
Comparison shopping
Other home-based
Non-Home-based
Total
1965
Number
of Trips
(000)
2,626
1,248
795
535
1,223
409
1,095
2,447
10,378
Percent
Total
25.3
12.0
7.7
5.2
11.8
3.9
10.5
23.6
100.0
1980
Number
of Trips
(000)
3,952
1,710
1,095
863
1,704
585
1,519
3,879
15,307
Percent
Total
25.8
11.2
7.2
5.6
11.1
3.8
9.9
25.4
100.0
1990
Number
of Trips
(000)
4,761
2,059
1,276
1,048
2,068
708
1,840
4,711
18,471
Percent
Total
25.8
11.1
6.9
5.7
11.2
3.8
10.0
25.5
100.0
I
en
Source: BATSC 1965 Survey and Forecasts
-------
Table 3-12 presents regional trip patterns for average weekday
person trips. Over 20 percent of the region's 11,829,000 trips are
focused on San Francisco; Santa Clara County accounts for more than
23 percent of the regional trip activity. Table 3-13,1965 work person
trip breakdowns by county, further illustrates trip focus on San
Francisco. Some 29 percent of the regional work trip activity
originates or is destined in San Francisco County. Table 3-14 indi-
cates resident employees place of work, providing background to the
work travel matrix.
Despite the central role of San Francisco, the majority of the
region's trips remain within the county in which they are produced as
illustrated in Tables 3-15 and 3-16. This limits the opportunities for
public transit as trips to the dense urban concentrations are most sub-
ject to diversion from automobile to transit. It also points up the
need for control strategies which have a region-wide impact rather than
concentration in one subarea.
Table 3-17 presents average weekday person travel for the region
by trip purpose and mode. Some 8 percent of the total travel (nearly
10 percent if walk trips are ignored) are transit trips. The high
transit orientation of work, school and comparison shopping trips
is also indicated. Tables 3-18 and 3-19 present total person trips
by mode and county for all purposes and work purpose, respectively.
The tables illustrate the high transit orientation of San Francisco
trips. Of the urban counties Santa Clara stands out with only 2 percent
transit. (1973 estimates indicate only 1.4 percent transit mode split
in Santa Clara County.)
3.3.1.2 Vehicle Miles of Travel
Estimates of VMT, a data item of secondary importance in trans-
portation planning, are critical inputs to pollution emission inventories
and control strategy development. Some discrepancies in reported and
projected VMT data for the Bay Area exist. Figures reported by BATSC
run significantly lower than those reported by the California Division
of Highways. The BATSC figures are reported from computerized highway
-52-
-------
Table 3-12. All Purposes 1965 Average Weekday Person Trips by All Modes
County of
Production
(Residence)
Alameda
Contra Costa
Mann
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
Total
County of Attraction'
ALA
2669954
148824
5059
1046
44100
9373
16680
3729
2268
2901033
CC
67009
1187642
1872
674
8323
1946
1305
7685
320
1276779
MRN
4966
3550
350070
53
14963
2133
452
1480
8838
386505
NAP
1496
1108
636
146250
329
0
177
8301
2404
160701
SF
104980
38621
57556
709
1840598
199763
28199
4307
5973
2280706
SM
18083
4210
3448
50
85122
1145797
73723
288
712
1331433
SCL
22637
2020
417
47
9030
82702
2509392
405
656
2627306
SOL
2327
10656
1115
17186
2064
202
587
345762
2204
382103
SON
517
488
4299
1899
1041
936
306
0
472876
482362
TOTAL
2891969
1397119
424485
167914
2005570
1442852
2630821
371957
497251
11828928
I
ui
CO
Note: Entries in above table represent non-directional trips. Each entry indicates the total trips
in both directions that are produced by the residents of the county of production and attracted
to each county.
Source: BATSC 1965 Origin-Destination Surveys
-------
Table 3-13. Home-Based Work Trips - 1965 Average Weekday Person Trips by All Modes
County of
Production
(Residence)
Alameda
Contra Costa
Marin
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
Total
ALAMEDA
544,414
75,298
2,426
834
17,101
4,171
6,987
1,390
387
653,008
CC
19,108
174,964
1,279
622
2,794
431
173
4,349
152
203,872
MARIN
1,140
1.084
51,125
0
2,799
554
0
634
4,068
61 ,404
NAPA
632
29
95
25,457
0
0
0
2,204
76
28,493
SF
61 ,690
25,324
37,618
526
458,026
106,499
12,937
2,566
3,412
708,598
SM
9,606
1,905
825
50
29,422
202,086
29,219
128
172
273,413
SCL
10,606
951
417
0
3,000
25,861
497,333
0
0
538,168
SOL
1,189
4,046
477
7,168
944
120
69
62,207
1,534
77,754
SON
0
51
691
519
0
204
0
0
79.860
81 ,325
TOTAL
648,385
283,652
94,953
35,176
514,086
339,926
546,718
73,478
89,661
2,626,035
NOTE: Entries in above table represent non-directional trips. Each entry indicates the total trips in both
directions that are produced by the residents of the county of production and attracted to each county.
-------
Table 3-14. Resident Employees Place of Work - Percentage, 1965
en
i
County
Alameda
Contra Costa
Marin
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
% Work in
Co. of Res.
81
59
54
69
87
54
86
80
86
% Work
in San Francisco
11
11
39
3
34
4
6
5
High County^ Other
County
Contra Costa
Alameda
Alameda
Solano
San Mateo
Santa Clara
San Mateo
Contra Costa
Marin
than S.F.
%
3
26
2
22
6
8
6
6
5
% Work
Other
5
4
5
6
7
4
4
8
4
all
Places
Source: BATSC 1965 Origin-Destination Survey
-------
Table 3-15. 1965 Average Weekday Person Trips - Comparison of Trips Within County and Adjacent Counties
en
-------
Table 3-16. 1965 Average Weekday Person Trips - Home-Based Work Trips
Comparison of Trips Within County and Adjacent Counties
County of
Production
Alameda
Contra Costa
Marin
i Napa
tn
vj
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
Total
Work Trips
Produced
648, 385
283,652
94,953
35, 176
514, 086
339,926
546,718
73,478
89, 661
Trips Remaining
Within County
Trips
544,414
174,964
51, 125
25,457
458,026
202, 086
497, 333
62,207
79,860
%
84.0
61.7
53.8
72.4
89. 1
59.4
91.0
84.7
89. 1
Trips Attracted
To
Adjacent Countiea
Trips %
91,404
104, 668
38, 309
7,687
49,322
132,360
32,206
6,553
4, 144
14. 1
36.9
40.3
21.9
9.6
38.9
6.6
8.9
4.6
Remainder
Within
Region
1.9
1.4
5.9
5.7
1.3
1.7
2.4
6.4
6.3
TOTAL
2,626,035
2, 095,472
79.8
470,650
17.9
2.3
Source: BATSC 1965 Origin-Destination Survey
-------
Table 3-17. 1965 Average Weekday Trips by Purpose and Mode
PURPOSE
i
en
00
H . B. Work & Work Related
H. B. Personal Bus. . Med. -
Dental
H. B. School
H. B. Visit Friends
H. B. Eat Meal,
Commercial Rec.
H. B. Conv. Shopping,
Shopping Both
H. B. Comparison Shopping
H. B. Free Rec. Accompany
Person, Other
Non-Home Based
TOTAL (all purposes)
Vehicle
Vehicle
Driver
1,829.542
725.825
144,541
404, 175
235,728
754,400
235,308
544, 523
1,364.318
6,238.360
MODE
Transit
Passen-
gers
325.
300.
254.
250,
219,
213,
107,
439.
603.
2,714,
877
105
034
686
977
739
962
161
342
883
Total %Vehi-
Pereons cle
2,155,419
1,025,930
398, 575
654,861
455,705
968,139
343,270
983,684
1,967,660
8,953,243
82. 1
82.2
27.5
82.4
85.2
79.2
84.0
89.8
80.4
75.7
Persons %
Transit
331, 300
70,722
323,659
20.894
25, 127
24,031
38,622
9,424
89, 583
933,362
12.6
5.7
22.4
2.6
4.7
2.0
9.5
0.9
3.7
7.9
Walk
Persons
139,
151.
726,
119,
54,
230,
26.
102,
390.
1,940,
316
214
152
241
222
743
688
230
196
002
%
Walk
5.3
12. 1
50. 1
15.0
10. 1
18.8
6.5
9.3
15.9
16.4
P
2,
1.
1.
1.
1.
2,
H.
Total
'erson
Trips
626,035
247,866
448, 386
794,996
535,054
222,913
408,580
095, 338
447, 439
826,607
Source: BATSC 1965 Origin-Destination Survey
-------
Table 3-18. Distribution of 1965 Average Weekday Total - Person Trips
by Mode
Percent of Trips by Mode
County
Vehicle (Driver &
Passenger)
Total Region
Transit
75.7
7.9
Walk
Alameda
Contra Costa
Mar in
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
78.0
79.5
83.8
84.7
56.3
79.3
87.7
79.3
80.2
6.7
5.8
6.3
5.6
21. 1
7. 1
2.0
2.6
8.2
15.3
14.7
9.9
9.7
22.6
13.6
10.3
18.1
11.6
16.4
Source: BATSC 1965 Origin-Destination Survey
-59-
-------
Table 3-19. Distribution of 1965 Average Weekday - Work Person Trips
by Mode
Percent of Trips by Mode
County
Vehicle (Driver &
Passenger)
Transit
Total Region 82. 1 12.6
Source; BATSC 1965 Origin-Destination Survey
Walk
Alameda
i
Contra Costa
Mar in
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
84.9
91.9
88.9
95.3
59.0
87.6
94. 2
90.3
95.2
11.2
5.5
8.3
1.4
33.7
8.9
2.5
3.7
1.9
3.9
2.6
2.8
3.3
7.3
3.5
3.3
6.0
2.9
5.3
-60-
-------
network assignments. As a result, vehicle mileage from intrazonal trips
are not reflected as these trips are not "loaded" on the network. More-
over, commercial vehicle tripmaking is not reflected in the BATSC data.
Even with adjustments for these factors, significant discrepancies remain
as illustrated in Figure 3-6. Curve 1 fn Figure 3-6 shows linear pro-
jection of the Division of Highways VMT estimates, curve 2 is adjusted
BATSC estimates, and curve 3 shows unadjusted BATSC VMT data from net-
work assignments. Inset on the figure are VMT totals for the three
critical air quality years as taken from each of the three curves.
For purposes of this study, the Division of Highways based VMT estimates
have been treated as upper limits in the air quality analyses. Actual
calculated emissions are based on the VMT figures from adjusted BATSC
estimates.
Table 3-20 illustrates the discrepancy between BATSC and Division
of Highways breakdown of VMT by county. The data indicate a broad dis-
persion of the VMT over the region pointing up the need for control
strategies which are regional in impact. Control measures aimed at
reducing VMT in regions most susceptible to control (e.g. San Francisco)
are likely to be relatively ineffective since these areas account for
only small fractions of the total VMT and are typically areas which cur-
rently have the highest levels of transit ridership. Adding restrictive
controls to the more dense activity centers raises questions of equity,
i.e., those most likely to use transit penalized while offenders in low-
density suburbia escape restrictions.
Table 3-21 presents statistics on VMT generation and growth for the
region disaggregated by BATSC superdistricts as presented on Figure 3-7.
The VMT per capita figures provide a relative measure of propensity to
use the auto by subarea of the region. Estimates indicated in the table
reflect VMT from BATSC 1965 0-D trips (excluding intrazonals) aggregated
to the superdistricts in which trips were produced (not necessarily the
one in which all the VMT was run up). Growth rates are based on 1965 to
1980 BATSC projected trip patterns.
-61-
-------
Table 3-20. VMT by County
% Total % Tol.al
County BATSC1 DOH2
Alamcda
Contra Costa
Marin
Napa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Solano
Sonoma
100.0 100.0
1-1965 BATSC Origin-Destination Survey
1966 Statewide Transportation Study
Note: Despite BATSC omissions of intrazonal and commercial vehicle
trips, the effect on percentage VMT distribution should be
minimal as these should be roughly proportional to total trtp
activity. Significant discrepancies in the above table pose
some question.
23.7
10.8
5..0
1. 1
11.7
14.2
23. 3
4.6
5.6
26.3
11.8
6.4
2.1
9.6
11.9
18.6
6.6
6.7
-62-
-------
125
100
I 75
s.
50
25
1. Division of Highways
2. BATSC - Adjusted
3. BATSC - Unadjusted
1965
1970
1980
1990
YEAR
1.
2.
3.
1971
71,500,000
61,850,000
53,486,000
1975
83,596,000
71,990,000
62,430,000
1977
89,644,000
77,060,000
66,902,000
Figure 3-6. Estimated Daily VMT
-63-
-------
Table 3-21. VMT
Superdi strict
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Originating in each of
VMT Generation
Population
5.33
4.24
4.23
4.78
7.09
9.66
10.63
8.54
9.99
8.48
8.73
13.57
8.65
9.78
7.75
6.48 .
5.82
7.64
9.55
8.48
5.82
6.28
2.92
6.50
8,41
11.71
8.23
18.58
8.69
9.32
30 BATSC Superdistricts1
Projected
% Regional
VMT Growth
1965-80
.5
1.0
2.5
1.0
4.0
3.0
3.5
1.5
2.0
4.5
5.0
18.0
2.5
4.0
6.0
5.5
2.0
2.0
3.5
7.5
3.0
2.0
4.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
5.0
2.0
Source: BATSC 1965 Travel Data
1
Superdistricts located in Figure 3-7
-64-
-------
Figure 3-7. BATSC Super Districts
-65-
-------
Inspection of Table 3-21 and Figure 3-7 reveals that in the urbanized
portion of the region, VMT generation is significantly greater in the
southern sector (Superdistricts 6-13). These same areas (Santa Clara
County and the southern portions of San Mateo and Alameda Counties) are
projected to be responsible for a large share of the region's VMT growth,
some 37 percent. This points up the desirability of a control strategy
which has impact in these parts of the region. Table 3-22 presents a
breakdown of VMT by roadway functional classification along with statis-
tics of roadway mileage by functional class based on Division of High-
ways data as reported by BATSC. It must be noted that the 1965 VMT
total from which these breakdowns are reported differs significantly
from the VMT total reported by the Division of Highways in the 1966
Statewide Transportation Study.
Table 3-22. VMT Breakdown by Roadway Functional Classification
Road Miles Daily VMT
Class of Facility
Freeways and Expressways
Arterial and Collector
Local
Total
Amount
429
6,590
8,626
15,645
Percent Total Amount
2.8
42.2
55.0
100.0
17,370,000
27,080,000
15,850,000
60,300,000
Percent
28.8
45.0
26.2
100.0
3.3.1.3 Average Vehicle Speed
Data on regional average travel speed, another key input to the air
quality forecast process, is also somewhat tenuous. The BATSC work indi-
cated an average network speed of 36.8 mph in 1965 and projected 42.2
mph for 1980. Linear interpolation between these values gives the follow-
ing areawide average travel speeds for the air quality base and projection
years:
1971 - 39.0 mph
1975 - 40.4 mph
1977 - 41.2 mph
-66-
-------
The 1971 Statewide Transportation Study reported a somewhat higher average
travel speed for the Bay Area than the above estimate - 41.9 mph. But
this variation of speeds is of small significance in air quality fore-
casting as in this speed range hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions
do not change significantly. This same factor also mitigates the concern
that the above speeds may be overly high because of omission of short trips
on local, low speed streets. Accounting for such trips is not likely
to decrease the reported average travel speed by more than 1 or 2 miles
per hour.
3.3.2 Transportation Facilities and Services
A brief description of transit services, highway facilities and
parking"'Conditions in the Bay Area is presented here as a prelude to con-
sideration of transportation control strategies. Existing transit opera-
tions and pending improvements affect the capacity of the region to
provide options to auto use as various constraints are implemented.
Congestion on the existing highways in the region and pending improve-
ments work both for and against cleaner air; increased congestion may
increase vehicle emissions, but congestion usually helps make transit
more competitive. Availability of parking affects the price and conveni-
ence of the auto trip which must be countered if VMT is to be reduced.
3.3.2.1 Transit Services
Table 3-23 briefly describes existing transit operations in the Bay
Area. Figure 3-8 portrays current Bay Area transit coverage, including
high speed rail service, commute bus service, and local bus service. The
Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) (to be completed in the fall of
1973) Muni Subway (to be completed in 1975) and Southern Pacific Railroad
plus commute bus services run by Greyhound, Golden Gate, and AC Transit
form the backbone of the region's transit system. A high level of local
service (at least 15 minute peak hour service, 20 minute midday) exists
in San Francisco, Daly City, and low lying portions of Oakland and
Berkeley. A lesser level of transit service covers about one-third of
the remainder of the urbanized area, princiapally western Alameda and
-67-
-------
Table 3-23. Bay Area Region Transit Operators
OI-EKATOR
Sai. Francisco Municipal
I' ai Iway
AlamcrJa- C.'ontra Costa
1 ransit Dist rict
(irryljound Lints- \Vcst
(ioldcn Gate Bridge, Highway
and Transportation Dist.
Santa Clara County
1 ransit District
S'lMlhrrn I'acifi* Company
I'.ay Area Rapid Transit
Uisl rict
>'. urtlii^ate 'Transit Company
Smith San r'raniiaco Transit
San Mateo Courteous Transit
Redwood City Municipal Transit
I'ei-rloss Staffs System
Vallejo Transit Lines
Viica Valley Bus Lines
Naj»a 'Transit Company
I'lMias Transportation ('.a.
Cin-ylumnd Lines - V.'est
ll.'iU-rcity)
Sanla Hosa Municipal I'ransit
SERVICE AREA
City/County of San Francisco
Coastal area of Contra Costa h
Alamcrta Counties from lul
Sobrante to !!ayward
Peninsula-Daly City to San Jose
Contra Costa-Orinda to Antioc h
East nay-OaHand to Vallejo
Marin-Soi'.oma Counties from
Sausalito to Santa Rosa
Palo Alto, Santa Clara, San Jose,
Saratoga, Los Cialos, Campbell
SF to San rose " station stops
SK to Daly City- K remtjnt - Richmond -
Concord
Daly City- \Vcstlakc-Culma-Snitli SK
South San Francisco
San Matco
Redwood City
Oakland-San .loae-Santa Crux
Vallejo
FairfieldJTravis AFH
N'apa
Pitts, burg
SF to San lose-Salinas, Los Ciatos-
Santa f'ruz. l.ivermore-Stockton.
Valleio-StOi ktun, VAllrji* (ill I a', o^a
Sonoma -San'.a Rosa *.- Mar'.inc£-
Sai.ta R'Jia
ROUTES
NO. TYPE
03 Local
8 Express
55 Local
16 E x p r e s s
4 Local
4 Express
2 Local
9 Express
1 Local
2 Express
9 Local
18 Express
19 Local
I Express
4 Express
6 Local
2 Local
2 Local
5 Local
5 Express
6 Local
1 Local
2 Local
1 Local
7 Intercity
3 Local
HEADWAY
RANGE
(Min. )
2-40
5-30
2-60
2-60
10-60
5-15
15-60
4-15
15-60
..5-60
15-60
5-15
10-120
5-120
2-15
20-60
30
60
30
45-90
40-80
60
60
90
15-120
40-45
ANNUAL
PATRONAGE
82.000.000
7. 000. 000
36, 300,000
14. 300.000
6, 900,000
2.900,000
600.000
1. 500, 000
3,900,000
5, 100.000
6.000.000
full operation
by 9-7J
400,000
y
100,000 ?
300,000
300,000
500,000
200, 000
t
?
206,750
USERS
General
Commute
General
Commute
Commute-Gen, *
Corrvrnute
Low Mobility -
Commute
Low Mobility-
Commute
Low Mobility-
Low Income
Comnm'.e-
Low Mobility
Low Mobility-
Low Income-
Sr. Citizen
Commute
Commute-Gen.
Low Mobility-
Low Income
Low Mobility-
Low Income
Low Mobility-
Low Income
Low Mobility-
Low Income
General-
Low Mobility
Low Mobility-
Low Income
Air Force
personnel
Low Mobility-
Low Income
Low Mobility-
Low Income
Low Mobility
General
RECENT OR POTENTIAL
IMPROVEMENTS
Muni Metro 81 Subway
Exclusive bus lanes
Expanded service area
Eliminate transbay runs
Establish service along
1-280 corridor
BART Service to SF, East
Bay (;. Feeder Bus
Feed to BART at Richmond
or El Cer rito
Bus lane on US 101
Busway in SF
Expanded coverage and
service area
Upgrade to rapid transit
Extensions to Livermore,
Antioch, SF(NW). SF Airport
Improved coverage, headway
Improved service
Improved coverage, headway
Improved headways
Feed to BART @ Fremont
Run Fremont-San Jose
Improved coverage, headways
Expand as part of Fairfield
local system
Improved service
Improved service
Expand service as part of
rcuion-widc trunk system
Subsidized private jitney operations
I
01
00
I
-------
Location Of
Basin
High Speed Rail
Service - BART,
S.F. Muni.So.Pac.
Commute Bus Serv.-
Greyhound, Golden
Gate, AC Transit
High Level Local
Service; (15 min.
peak, 20 min.off-
peak)
Remaining Local
Services; (30 min.
or less)
Urbanized Area with
No Local Service
SAN
FRANCIS
Source: Transit Operator Data
Figure 3-8. Bay Area Transit Coverage
-69-
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Table 3-24. Key to Urbanized Areas Without Transit Service
1. Eastern Contra Costa County -- Orinda, Moraga, Lafayette,
Walnut Creek, Pleasant Hill, Concord, Martinez, Antioch
2. Livermore - Amador Valley Dublin, San Ramon, Pleasanton,
Livermore
3. Tri-Cities -- Fremont, Newark, Union City
4. Santa Clara County -- Mountain View, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale,
Cupertino, Saratoga, Mil pitas, Los Gatos, Campbell and
portions of San Jose
5. Penninsula -- Menlo Park, Atherton, San Carlos, Belmont,
Burlingame, Hillsborough, Mi 11 brae, San Bruno, Pacifica,
Brisbane, and portions of South San Francisco
6. Sonoma County -- Petaluma, Sebastopol, Cotati, Rohnert Park,
Sonoma
7. Solano County -- Fairfield, Vacaville and Benecia
-69a-
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Contra Costa Counties and Marin County. An estimated 50 percent of Bay
Area residents presently live within walking distance (1/4 mile) of local
transit service (coverage applied to 1970 census data). A much lower
percentage of new development, perhaps 10 percent, is within walking
distance of a local transit route.
Service in the northern three counties (Napa, Solano, Sonoma) is
limited to small local operations in the three largest cities, Vallejo,
Napa and Santa Rosa. A limited number of private operations providing
specialized services, i.e., Jitney Commute Bus to Mare Island Naval Ship-
yard in Vallejo and Travis Air Force Base and Golden Gate Transit Service
to San Francisco from Santa Rosa, Petaluma and Rohnert Park. Because of
the sparse development in these counties, opportunities for affecting
air quality improvement by diverting large numbers of persons from autos
to improved transit services are extremely limited. However, ongoing
studies of feasibility for high speed ground transportation linkage
between the Bay Area and Sacramento could result in linkage between the
cities of Vallejo and Fairfield with a central part of the region. But
this is an extremely long-term prospect.
In the central Bay Area, a number of transit operations provide
high volume local and intercity services. Golden Gate transit opera-
tions extend north from downtown San Francisco, through Marin County
and to Santa Rosa. ' In the less than two-year period since the Golden
Gate District has taken over operation in this corridor from Greyhound
Lines-West, patronage has almost doubled from 4200 daily riders to some
7600 currently. This is the result of a combination of factors, i.e.,
better distribution in downtown San Francisco, better neighborhood pene-
tration at the Marin County end, an exclusive bus lane on US Route 101
at the Waldo Grade, and new, air-conditioned buses. Golden Gate also
operates ferry service between Sausalito and Tiburon and downtown San
Francisco. A new ferry terminal and three new ferrys are expected to
be in operation in 1974 and T975. Long range planning for separate
right of way for bus or rail services in the Golden Gate corridor is
under way but in the time frame of this study (through 1977) principal
-70-
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opportunities appear to be incremental additions to existing operations
and possible extensions of exclusive bus land provisions.
In the East Bay, the Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District provides
excellent local, express, and transbay services in the western portion
of the two above-named counties. As the BART operations comes into full
service in September of this year, AC transbay operations will be de-
emphasized and routes reoriented to BART feeder service. Coordination
of service with BART is now under study as well as a potential Dial-a-
Ride demonstration program.
In central Contra Costa County, studies for provision of BART feeder
and local service (with special emphasis on service to low mobility groups)
are ongoing. Existing Greyhound Lines-West commute service to San
Francisco will be phased out as BART comes into full system operation.
Studies of BART extension to Pittsburg and Antioch are ongoing. Such
extensions are unlikely in the period of concern for air quality planning.
However, express bus linkage to BART from these areas is anticipated in
the near term.
In central Alameda County, studies have been completed for express
bus linkage between the Livermore-Pleasanton area and BART at Hayward;
studies for BART rail extension into this area are ongoing. However,
only the bus services are likely to be operational by 1977. In southern
Alameda County, the cities of Newark, Fremont and Union City are eval-
uating proposals for local and BART feeder transit services.
In San Francisco City and County, the San Francisco Municipal Rail-
way provides intensive areawide transit coverage, operating streetcars,
trolley buses, conventional motor coaches and cable cars. The new "Muni-
Rapid" streetcar subway on Market Street is scheduled to begin operation
in 1975 providing higher levels of service in the corridors now served
by streetcars. Proposals for rapid transit service in the Geary corridor
are now under study but these studies are of a long term nature. One
unique form of service in San Francisco is the jitney operation along
heavily travelled Mission Street.
-71-
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The BART is completing a 75-mile rail rapid transit system serving
Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco. The system radiates from Oakland
with lines extending west across the Bay, through downtown San Francisco
to Daly City north to Richmond east to Concord and south to Fremont.
BART embodies the most recent rapid transit technology with automated
fare collection and train control, operating speeds to 80 mph with an
average system speed (including station stops) of about 50 mph. The full
75 mile system is expected to be in revenue operation by late 1973 and
patronage estimates for 1975 project some 200,000 average weekday patrons
104,000 in the commute peaks, 96,000 in the off-peak period. While BART
will have major impact in diverting motorists from their autos, caution
must be exercised in viewing the above patronage figures, since many of
the projected BART riders will be diverted from existing bus operations.
Principal transit operations in San Mateo County are the Southern
Pacific Railroad and Greyhound Lines-West commute services to San
Francisco. At present Southern Pacific operates 23 commute trains
through San Mateo between San Francisco and San Jose (in Santa Clara
County), transporting some 11,500 commuters. Its principal deficiency
is the location of the San Francisco terminal at Third and Townsend streets,
one-half to three-fourths of a mile from the CBD and remote from BART and
other elements of the regional transit system. Studies for extension of
BART service to the San Francisco Airport and the length of San Mateo
County are ongoing. However, two similar proposals have been abandoned
in the past 10 years. Within San Mateo County, local transit services
are provided in the cities of Redwood City, San Mateo, South San Francisco,
and Daly City.
Of the urbanized counties in the region, transit has least impact
in Santa Clara County where it currently penetrates only 1.4 percent
of the travel market. However, the newly formed Santa Clara County
Transit District is in the process of purchasing 200 new propane propelled
buses. This will immediately increase the level and quality of transit
service in the county but is unlikely to have significant impact in terms
of persons attracted from their autos and resultant VMT decreases. The
-72-
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County Transit District, in association with MTC, is commissioning a $1.7
million study to develop a long range transportation plan. However,
results of this study are likely to have effect only after 1980.
3.3.2.2 Pending Transit Improvements
The MTC staff presented a draft of a proposed regional transporta-
tion plan in February 1973 to comply with SB325 legislation mandating
such a plan by July 1, 1973. The plan draft contains Table 3-25 recom-
mendations for early implementation. No exact implementation schedule
was presented in the draft, but implementation appears likely by'1977.
3.3.2.3 Capacity of Transit Service to Handle Additional Riders
Existing transit operations in the central and south-central portion
of the region comprise the principal resource for effecting large scale
replacement of personal motor vehicle travel in the near term future. In
general, transit affords good accessibility through most of the central
region although requirements for multiple transfers between routes and
between systems in order to duplicate many of the trips now being made
by auto makes transit usage inconvenient or even problematic on many
origin-destination exchanges. In existing services capacity is generally
available, both peak and off-peak, and additional capacity can be added
incrementally given patronage demand and adequate funding to offset addi-
tional capital and operating costs.
As a rule of thumb, about 80 percent of all transit costs are opera-
ting expenses. Current Federal assistance is comprised only of capital
grants (with the exception of limited demonstration programs). State
sources provide some operating funds as a percentage of capital funds
invested. The burden of transit operating expenses must be shouldered
either via the farebox or through local taxation. Federal and/or addi-
tional operating subsidies would be desirable in fostering improved
transit systems and reinforcing transit usage.
-73-
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Table 3-25. Recommended Transit Improvements
1.
County
San Francisco
2. SF-Marin
3. Marin-Sonoma
4. SF-SM-SC
5. SCI
6. Marin-Ala.
7. SM-SC-Ala.
Project Description
Doyle Drive reconstruction
(GG Bridge Approach)
Ferry System improvements:
Present plans for ferries and
terminals.
Local transit service improvements
in urbanized areas of South Marin
County, Novato, Petaluma, and
Santa Rosa.
Regional trunk!ine transit on
peninsula
Local transit service improvements
Richmond-San Rafael Bridge transit
service
Dumbarton Bridge Corridor:
Replacement of existing bridge
MTC Staff
Category'
II
Remarks
Further evaluation of alternatives
and impacts required, but safety
considerations make resolution an
urgent matter
Implementation in coming year
Improvements needed, studies now II
underway to define routes and costs.
Should have high priority for imple-
mentation.
Plans for BART extensions and/or II
express bus service and/or SP commuter
service improvements, including
transit access to SFO, now in progress.
Some staged improvements are high
priority.
Improved bus services under Santa Clara I
County Transit District sponsorship
beginning implementation now
Studies underway of possible bus
service within year; rapid transit
as a long-range consideration
Replacement authorized by
legislature; MTC approval
required
not
II
-------
Table 3-25. Recommended Transit Improvement (Continued)
on
i
County
8. Ala.-SC
9. Ala.-CC
10. Alameda
11. CC-Ala.
12. Contra Costa
13. Contra Costa
14. Contra Costa
Project Description
a) Express bus connections from
San Jose to Fremont BART
Station.
Local Transit Service Improvements
a) Fremont-Union City-Newark Area
b) AC Transit Service Areas in
East Bay
Express bus service from Hayward
BART Station.
Local bus service in Livermore-
Pleasanton-San Ramon Valley areas.
Route 4 - Willow Pass-Highway
improvements.
Express bus service - from Concord
BART Station to Pittsburg-Antioch
Local transit service in central
county.
Remarks
Santa Clara County Transit District
prepared to implement within year.
Routes, schedules, stops to be
worked out.
MTC Staff
Category 1
II
Studies leading to early implementation II
now in progress. High priority.
Study of appropriate service levels II
and alternatives to fixed bus route
service now underway.
To be implemented this year. I
Studies leading to early implementation II
needed. High priority.
Design studies and impact studies. I
To be implemented this year I
Studies leading to implementation now II
underway. High priority.
Staff proposals subject to Commission review following public hearings. Category I for implementation
immediately. Category II items are urgently needed, but some planning still required.
-------
With regard to available capacity, most of the existing bus commute
services operate on no-standees basis (by public choice). However, a
standee capacity is available if required on an emergency basis. By
1975 to 1977 BART will be operating with some standees in peak periods,
even with maximum length trains and minimum headways possible (3-15).
However, substantial additional capacity is available depending on the
level of "crowding" which is deemed acceptable.
Numbers of buses which might have been retired or reassigned to
less productive feeder services as a result of BART opening could be
retained in trunk haul commute services. About 100 motor coaches retired
from San Francisco Municipal Railway service are still available. These
vehicles are in poor repair but possibly could be reconditioned for
service in a short range emergency program. However, despite these
resources of additional capacity on existing (including BART) services
and some availability of older transit vehicles, large scale rollbacks
in auto use (through restrictive controls) on a regional basis and pro-
vision of substitute public transportation would necessitate purchase
of buses on a massive scale. Figure 3-9 indicates a very rough dimen-
sional estimate of the fleet size required to provide substitute trans-
portation under various commuter leads.
The current limitations of U. S. bus production capacity have been
documented in earlier reports (3-16). Recently a third manufacturer has
entered the domestic bus production field. Even with this production
capacity increase, in light of the fact that numerous other urban areas
may be attempting to acquire large numbers of new vehicles on short
delivery schedules as part of their air pollution control strategy pro-
grams, production capacity seems likely to remain a constraint. Per-
haps more significant is the cost of massive transit expansion on the
short term scale.
Achieving a 20 percent shift of regional work commute person trips to
transit in the short-term (1977) time frame of this study would entail ac-
quisition of some 3 to 4 thousand new buses, streetcars, or trolley coaches.
-76-
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100
o
o
o
Ul
o
80
CO
CO
K 60
40
20
5 10 15 20 25
REQUIRED NUMBER OF BUSES (Thousands)
Assumptions:
Average occupancy of 40 persons per bus
Each bus makes three revenue trips
during each commute period
Figure 3-9. Theoretical Bus Requirements for Commute
Transit Riderships
-77-
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This would involve a capital investment (at $40,000 per vehicle) of $120-
160 million (local share: $40-53 million). Annual operating expenses per
bus typically range between $50 and $70 thousand per bus (depending on
miles operated, labor costs and local conditions). This would entail
incremental annual operating costs of between $150 and $280 million.
(Note: the region's total state transit support (SB325 funds) amount to
$34 million annually.) When these capital and operating costs and the
anticipated quality of service rendered are compared with such oppor-
tunities as a San Mateo County BART extension (which would conceivably
be operational by the early to mid-1980's at a price tag of roughly $1
billion), serious question is raised as to the advisability, even if
technically possible, of pursuing an emergency transportation program to
meet the 1977 air quality standards. It would seem more reasonable to
allow necessary lead time for implementation of effective long-range
transit services now being planned and to provide incentives and finan-
cing assistance to them. The MTC and the component jurisdictions of the
region are now heavily engaged in such intermediate and long-range plan-
ning efforts. An emergency program for VMT reduction may be inconsistent
with these ongoing longer-term efforts (and which are close to fruition)
as well as totally drain the region's transit resources.
3.3.2.4 Highway Facilities
Figure 3-10 illustrates 1970 congestion on Bay Area freeways. Peak
hour traffic congestion is most evident on critical links across topo-
graphic barriers such as the Bay and ridges. Such congestion contributes
significantly to greater transit use, since drivers perceive time delay
disproportionately to actual delay. Note peak hour congestion over seg-
ments of most Bay Area freeways with particular congestion on routes
leading to San Francisco.
MTC staff presented a draft report on the regional transportation
plan earlier this year. Table 3-26 contains highway improvements pro-
posed for early implementation. Although no specific schedule was given,
implementation by 1977 might be expected.
-78-
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1 .
2.
, 4.
County
Sonoma
San Mateo
San Francisco
San Mateo
SCI
Table 3-26. Recommended Highway Improvements
Project Description Remarks
MTC Staff
Category^
Route 101 improvements to
Cloverdale
1-380 from 1-280 to Route 1
in Half Moon Bay
1-280 Third Street to
SF Bay Bridge
1-380 Access to SF International
Airport
Route 101 Freeway - Cochran to
Hellyer (Gilroy Bypass)
Construction and final design in
progress.
Relationship of coastal growth and
development plans to travel needs is
understood by San Mateo County, ABAC and
and new Coastal Commission. Pressing
safety problems at Devil's Slide.
Important 1/2-mile link in completion
of the interstate system. Should be
approved for Category I when final
design problems resolved.
,-
Project now!.,.under construction
in second of four stages.
Important inter-regional link;
should be approved for Category I
when locational impact problems
resolved.
I
II
II
I
II
1
Staff proposals subject to Commission review following public hearings. Category I is for
immediate implementation. Category II items are urgently needed, but some planning .work
still required.
-------
3.3.2.5 Parking Conditions
Availability of parking in relation to employers, shopping centers,
and other major generators is reflected in the price of parking and
transit/auto choice in trip making. Reducing the supply and/or increasing
the price of parking may, under certain circumstances, be able to increase
transit usage.
Table 3-27 indicates daily parking rates for offstreet lots and
garages in selected locations in the Bay Area. The San Francisco CBD
has the single highest average rate with the San Francisco Airport having
the next highest rate.
Table 3-28 breaks down the supply of parking space in the San
Francisco downtown, the single largest aggregation of parking in the
region. Of the 78,740 spaces available in 1965, 37 percent were on-street
spaces, 36 percent were in off-street lots, and 27 percent were in off-
street garages (3-17). Approximately 88 percent of the downtown parking
spaces were available for public use. Supply has increased since 1965,
but by an unknown amount (3-18).
K
It is estimated that 65 percent of the city's off-street parking
lots and garages are on land owned by government -- City, State or
Federal (3-19). This land is typically leased to private operators, rather
than managed by the public agency itself. Revenue from lease agreements
is estimated to comprise less than one percent of the City's budget.
Most money taken in from lease agreements and parking meter revenues
finds its way back into parking facilities, via the City's off-street
parking fund or not-for-profit corporations set up for bonding parking
structure construction.
-80-
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Table 3-27. Daily Off-Street Parking Rates,
Selected Bay Area Locations
Location Daily Rate
San Francisco CBD $2.50 - 5.00
San Francisco Airport $2.00 - 2.75
Oakland Airport $1.00 - 1.75
Oakland CBD $1.00 - 1.50
Berkeley CBD $1.00-1.50
Table 3-28. Parking Spaces, San Francisco CBD
Category Space
On-Street
Metered 4,951
Signed 4,293
Unlimited 1,928
Special Zones 4,459
(Yellow, White, Green,
Special Permit, Taxi)
Illegal 12,495
i Sub-total 29,126
Off-Street
Private Lots 7,774
Public Lots * 18,612
Private Garages 1,670
Public Garages 21,558
Sub-total 49.614
TOTAL 78,740
Source: "San Francisco Downtown Parking," Downtown Parking and Traffic
Survey, 1966.
* Connotes availability to public only and not public ownership.
-81-
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Greater
no significant congestion
encountered
mum
VvMountlin i
V ViewVS
IUUIH.BIM mw ^*»«««^
20 to 35 mph - Unstable % View^J.SunnyvaTe4**^ I
V^ ~~^. _
\
I
Less than 20 mph - established
queue with stop-and-go operation
Source: Division of Highways, State of California
San Jose^**
^F
I
Figure 3-10. 1970 Freeway Peak Period Operating Conditions
-82-
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3.4 REFERENCES
3-1. Bay Area Air Pollution Control District, Source Inventory of
Air Pollutant Emissions in the San Francisco Bay Area, 1971.
3-2. California, The Resources Agency, ARB, "The State of California
Implementation Plan for Achieving and Maintaining the National
Air Quality Standards," January 30, 1972.
3-3. Personal communication with Ron Mueller, EPA Region IX, con-
cerning EPA policy on hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions, San
Francisco, California, May 1973.
3-4. EPA, "Population and Economic Activity in the United States
and Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Historical and
Projected, 1950-2020," July 1972.
3-5. Personal communications with refinery representatives and Los
Angeles County APCD official.
3-6. TRW Regression Model. .
3-7. Population Research Unit, Department of Finance, "Provisional
Projections of California Counties to 2000," September 15, 1971.
3-8. Altschuler,
3-9. Personal communication with William Ellis, Chevron Research
Laboratory, El Segundo, California.
3-10. Bay Area Air Pollution Control District, "Aviation Effect on
Air Quality," Regional Airport Systems Study, February 1971.
3-11. EPA, "Aircraft," Revision to AP-42, 1973.
3-12. D. Kircher and D. Armstrong, "An Interim Report on Motor
Vehicle Emission Estimation," EPA, October 1972.
3-13. Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission, "BATS Study,"
1968.
3-14. California Highway Patrol, "California Traffic Accident
Summaries."
3-15. Personal communications with BART personnel, May 1973.
3-16. TRW, Inc., "Transportation Control Strategy Development for
the Metropolitan Los Angeles Region," 1973.
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3-17. San Francisco Department of Public Works, "San Francisco
Downtown Parking," Downtown Parking and Traffic Survey, 1966.
3-18. Personal communications with Traffic Engineering Department
Staff personnel, San Francisco, California, June 19/3.
3-19. Personal communications with Tax Assessment Department staff
personnel, San Francisco, California, June 1973.
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4.0 CONTROL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT
In 1975, the baseline control strategy, fundamentally consisting of
the present California-federal new vehicle control program and the present
California retrofit program, falls far short of obtaining the emission
levels which will allow the federal air quality standards to be met. As
shown in Table 4-1, emissions of RHC remain much higher than allowable
emissions even through 1980. For CO, air quality standards should be met
by 1980. To attain the federal air quality standards, in particular the
oxidant standard, by 1975 or 1977, an extensive transportation control
strategy will be required.
Table 4-1. Baseline Versus Allowable Emission Levels
F\l tf*
RHC
f\/\
CO
Baseline
Allowable
Baseline
Al 1 owabl e
1971
-367
125
2573
1364
1975
463
125
1802
1364
1977
428
125
1470"
1364
1980
396
125
1091
1364
This chapter develops a transportation control strategy for the San
Francisco Bay Area AQCR. Section 4.1 discusses possible further controls
for stationary sources, aircraft, and motor vehicles. The motor vehicle
controls are of three types: 1) controls of documented feasibility, 2)
controls of uncertain implementability, and 3) transportation controls to
reduce VMT. Before formulating a new, proposed strategy with their con-
trols, the ARB strategy is evaluated. Section 4.2 critiques the ARB
strategy according to the accuracy in its baseline projections, as well
as the appropriateness of its amended control effects. Finally,
Section 4.3 combines potential controls into a TRW proposed strategy.
This strategy breaks into Phases I and II according to whether or not
controls of uncertain implementability are included.
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4.1 ALTERNATIVE CONTROL MEASURES
4.1.1 Stationary Source Controls
Stationary source controls are applied to RHC emissions from surface
coatings, degreasing operations, dry cleaning, the handling and transfer
of gasoline, and open burning. As exhaust emission control standards for
motor vehicles become more stringent, the proportional share of RHC
emissions from these sources will increase. This section provides source
category descriptions and, where available, cost estimates for controls
on a per unit basis.
4.1.1.1 Surface Coatings
This category consists of RHC's emitted from the application of pro-
tective and decorative surface coatings. There are two main emission
categories:
a) Solvent evaporation with no change in chemical form
b) Solvent evaporation with a change in chemical form
resulting from heat or flame contact.
The main sources in these two categories are architectural coating and
paint baking, respectively.
The Bay Area Air Pollution Control District has enacted regulations
concerning organic solvent usage which are comparable to Los Angeles' Rule
66. Since Rule 66 represents relatively stringent control, the potential
for further control of emissions from this source category is limited.
The proposed controls consist of a tightened version of Los Angeles
County Rule 66 to further eliminate RHC emissions. They are:
a) Substitution of water-based for organic-based coatings
b) Use of powdered and/or high solids content coatings.
It is estimated that a further 50 percent reduction in RHC emissions
from this source is a reasonable expectation once the proper substitutions
are developed and marketed (4-1). To allow a reasonable lead time for
full implementation it has been assumed that a 30 percent reduction will
be attained by 1975 and a 50 percent reduction by 1977.
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4.1.1.2 Degreasers
This source category consists of RHC's emitted from degreasing
operations. Almost all hydrocarbon emissions from degreasing come from
three solvents: trichlorethylene (TCE), 1,1,1-trichlorethane (1,1,1-T),
and perchlorethylene (PCE). There is currently a considerable degree of
uncertainty concerning the reactivities of these compounds. According to
the Los Angeles County APCD reactivity index, TCE is considered reactive
while 1,1,1-T and PCE are considered non-reactive. This classification
of the solvents will be assumed for the purposes of the present study.
The present state of control for RHC's from degreasers consists of
limited substitution of non-reactive for reactive solvents and condenser
or absorber systems to recover evaporative losses.
The proposed control consists of complete substitution of 1,1,1-T
for TCE in degreasers using TCE. Necessary process and equipment changes
for this substitution,are anticipated to be minimal, in fact, 1,1,1-T may
actually save on operating costs. The substitution of PCE for TCE would
involve higher costs in terms of both equipment changes and operating
costs.-
It is assumed that a complete elimination in RHC emissions from this
source category will result. It is also anticipated that since the re-
quired solvents are readily available, this measure can be fully implemented
by 1975.
4.1.1.3 Dry Cleaners
Most dry cleaning is done with synthetic solvents, rated non-reactive
on the Los Angeles APCD reactivity scale. There are, however, a few large
dry cleaning plants that use reactive petroleum solvents. The use of
these petroleum solvents is apparently declining.
The proposed control consists of adding activated carbon adsorption
systems to the petroleum solvent dry cleaning plants in order to collect
the solvent vapors. Such systems have been used extensively in synthetic
solvent plants for recovery of the high-cost synthetic solvent (i.e.,
roughly $2.00/gal versus $.30/gal for petroleum solvent). A 90 percent
reduction in emissions from this source appears to be a realistic goal
for 1975.
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4.1.1.4 Gasoline Modification-Reid Vapor Pressure Change
One method of lowering the evaporative losses is to change the compo-
sition of the gasoline, e.g., by changing the vapor pressure. Such a
change requires a complete analysis of the impact on all emission subse-
quent to the change and the resultant change in photochemical reactivity
of the modified fuel. According to Nelson (4-2), lowering the Reid vapor
pressure from 9.0 psi to 6.0 psi reduces the expected evaporative emissions
by 27 percent.
On the other hand, a joint study by the CARB, LAAPCD, and Western Oil
and Gas Association (4-3) found much less benefit from such a fuel composi-
tion change. Although the study found the average percentage gains in
emissions from stationary sources to be in good agreement with Nelson, the
total net reduction was considerably less. Overall, the CARB study con-
cluded in Reid vapor pressure from 9.0 psi to 6.0 psi would produce only
a net hydrocarbon emission reduction of 9 percent. The key consideration
was that "in general, a reduction in vapor pressure using fuels like the
prototypes would produce a reduction in emissions due to evaporation of
gasoline, an increase in exhaust hydrocarbon emissions, and a decrease in
the total organic emissions associated with both gasoline associated
sources and all sources, mobile and stationary" (4-3).
In addition, if one considers the impact of the reactivity change,
the net benefit from a change in Reid vapor pressure becomes even less
yet. Using the R-l reactivity scale, it was concluded the overall gain
from all gasoline related emission sources drops to about 4 or 5 percent
and if the R-2 reactivity scale is used, the equivalent gain becomes
only 1.2 percent. Thus, when the total resultant hydrocarbon losses
(evaporative and exhaust) and the reactivity questions are considered,
the gains in hydrocarbon improvements become quite low. If one goes on
further to examine the cost associated with such a fuel composition
change, the cost effectiveness of this strategy becomes very marginal.
At least two studies have reviewed the cost of such a change. The
first (4-4) estimated capital costs at some $60 million and manufacturing
cost per gallon at approximately 1.33 cents for large refineries and
2.13 cents for smaller refineries. The American Petroleum Institute (4-5)
-------
indicated that modifying gasoline to have a Reid vapor pressure of 6 psi
would increase manufactured costs by 1.24 cents per gallon. Assuming an
average markup between refinery and consumer of about 100 percent (Oil and
Gas Journal, December 1972), the cost would average 2.5 cents per gallon
more to the consumer.
In summary, the key considerations are:
Changing Reid vapor pressures results in substantial
reductions in evaporative losses during fuel transfers.
t A lower Reid vapor pressure may increase exhaust hydro-
carbons negating some of the reductions gained.
A lower Reid vapor pressure may increase the reactivity
of the gasoline again, partially negating some of the
reductions gained.
The cost of modifying gasoline to provide a lower Reid
vapor pressure is substantial.
In view of the above, changing the Reid vapor pressure of gasoline
appears to be a strategy which deserves further investigation, but which
cannot be recommended at this time.
4.1.1.5 Evaporative Emission Control - Bulk Terminals
A different approach to controlling evaporative losses from the
marketing of gasoline is to use some type of vapor recovery or mechanical
trap system. Vapor recovery at bulk or wholesale terminals has been
required in the Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay areas. The control
consists of floating roofs on storage tanks and a refrigeration-compression
system together with loading dock modifications to handle vapors displaced
during the filling of delivery trucks. This latter system is estimated to
cost roughly $250,000 per bulk terminal facility (4-6). This cost is
broken down as $100,000 to $200,000 for the refrigeration-compression unit,
and $100,000 for loading dock modifications. Such facilities recover
roughly 90 percent of the vapors escaping during loading operations.
Roughly 80 percent of the total gasoline throughput in the San
Francisco Area passes through controlled bulk terminals (4-7). This
leaves roughly 30 bulk stations uncontrolled at this time. These termi-
nals had previously been excluded from control because of their relatively
small capacities.
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4.1.1.6 Evaporative Emission Control - Service Station Modifications
Standard Oil Company of California has been experimenting with a
mechanical trap (vapor return) system to be used during the filling of
service station underground storage tanks (4-8). In such a system, vapors
displaced from the underground tanks are returned to the delivery truck
during the filling operation. The system as tested consists of a "T"
connection to the underground vapor line, valves, and a three-inch diameter
vapor return hose. Cost estimates for retrofitting service stations with
such a system varied from $900 to $2000 per station, with a most probable
figure of $1300 per station (4-9). This estimate is almost entirely be-
cause of labor costs incurred in excavation to gain access to the under-
ground line, T-connector fitting, tank purging, and subsequent repair of
the ground surface. In terms of efficiency, the tests revealed that an
approximate 94 percent vapor recovery is entirely feasible. EPA emission
factors for this operation in the absence of vapor return are 12 lb/1000
gallon throughput (splash fill) and 7 lb/1000 gallon throughput (submerged
fill).
Recently, the American Petroleum Institute sponsored a study of
methods available for evaporative emission control between the service
station and the automobile. Of the techniques which are primarily
service-station oriented, "control methods would avoid about 71 percent
of vapor emission immediately upon completion of the service station
conversion. The vapor emission avoided would progressively increase
over a period of about 10 years to about 94 percent to 98 percent
depending on the particular method considered" (4-10). The variation in
the percentage effectiveness over time is dependent upon the development
of a safe, vapor tight filling nozzle and a matching standardized automo-
tive fill pipe.
Although many alternatives are available, only three of the most
promising techniques are presented. The descriptions of these methods
are as follows:
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Case 3 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with No
Recovery of Excess Vapors
This control scheme is based on displacing vapor from the vehicle
fuel tank to the storage tank from which the fuel was pumped. This
is accomplished by making a tight seal at the interface between the
fill nozzle and the fuel nozzle and the fuel tank fill pipe. The
fill nozzle is designed such that there is a space around the nozzle
through which the displaced vapors can be directed to a vapor return
line. This line directs the vapors displaced from the vehicle fuel
tank back to the underground storage tank from which the fuel is
pumped. The volume of the vapors displaced equals the volume of the
fuel pumped from the storage tank. The vehicle fuel tank vapor in
the underground storage tank is displaced back to the fuel supply
truck at each delivery... . Any excess vapors generated at the
service station due to temperature conditions is vented to the
atmosphere (4-10).
Case 4 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Refrigeration
This control scheme is based on displacing vehicle fuel tank vapors
during refueling back to the storage tank"from which the fuel was
pumped. This is accomplished by making a tight seal at the inter-
face between the fill nozzle and the fuel tank fill pipe. The fill
nozzle is designed such that there is a space around the nozzle
through which the displaced vapors can be directed to a vapor re-
turn line. This line directs the vapors displaced from the vehicle
fuel tank back to the underground storage tank from which the-fuel
was pumped. The volume of the vapor displaced equals the volume
of the fuel pumped into the vehicle fuel tank. The vapor in the
underground storage tanks is displaced back to the fuel supply
truck at each delivery... . Any excess vapors generated at the
service station due to temperature conditions are vented to a two-
stage vapor compression system with intermediate cooling and final
condensation by refrigeration. Condensed vapors consisting of
propane and heavier hydrocarbons are returned to the underground
storage tanks. The refrigeration unit is of 1.0 ton capacity at
-10 F, and it is started and stopped on suction pressure sensing
in a vapor holder (4-10).
Case 5 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Activated Carbon Adsorption
This control scheme is based on displacing vehicle fuel tank
vapors during refueling back to the storage tank from which the
fuel was pumped. This is accomplished by making a tight seal at
the interface between the fill nozzle and the fuel tank fill pipe.
The fill nozzle is designed such that there is space in the nozzle
through which the displaced vapors can be directed to a vapor
return line. This line directs the vapors displaced from the
vehicle fuel tank back to the underground storage tank from which
the fuel was pumped. The volume of the vapors displaced equals
-91-
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the volume of the fuel pumped into the vehicle fuel tank... . Any
excess vapors generated at the service station due to temperature
conditions are vented to an activated carbon adsorption unit. All
of the hydrocarbons are adsorbed in this unit. The activated
carbon unit consists of four transportable canisters containing 25
pounds of activated carbon each. These canisters are regenerated
about four times per month during the summer and considerably less
during the rest of the year. The canisters are regenerated at the
fuel supply terminal and their contained vapors are covered in the
terminal vapor recovery system. The canisters are hauled to and
from the supply terminal on trucks fitted specifically for this
purpose (4-10).
The effectiveness of the Case 3 method was approximated to be 71
percent recovery assuming service station conversions were initiated in
1973 and completed in 1975. Eventually, a 95 percent recovery could be
expected when all automobiles were fitted with standardized fill pipes.
This maximum control would not occur until about 1985 due to the lead
time for normal attrition of older vehicles. Cases 4 and 5 are estimated
to have about a 3 percent better vapor recovery due to the condensation or
adsorption of the vapors escaping from the storage tanks.
The costs for each case were estimated as follows:
Case 3 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors
Capital Installed Cost to Service Station
The capital costs show breakout for new and revamp stations.
Capital Installed Cost Per Station
Material Labor*
Piping and fittings (screwed) $ 418 $1,438
(6) tight fill nozzles at $40 each.
($12 of this cost is for the tight
seal vapor return feature).
(6) combination fill and vapor return
hoses at $15 each.
($6 of this cost is for the vapor
return hose). 330 78_
$1,516
Contingency at 20% material, 10% labor 150 151
$ 898 $1,667
Concrete removal and repair and tank --- 2,500
purging $ 898 $4,lb/
*Labor costs at $16/hour.
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New station cost = $898 + $1,667 = $2,565
Revamp station cost = $898 + $4,167 = $5,065
Operating Costs to Service Station >
Incremental additional replacement cost of the tight seal
vapor return portion of the fill nozzles and the vapor
return portion of the hoses at $30/year.
Case 4 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Refrigeration
Capital Installed Cost to Service Station
The capital costs show breakout for new and revamp stations.
Capital Installed Cost Per Station
Material Labor*
Piping and fittings (screwed) $ 883 $1,896
(6) tight fill nozzles at $40 each.
($12 of this cost is for the tight seal
vapor return feature).
(6) combination fill and vapor return
hoses at $15 each.
($6 of this cost is for the vapor
return hose). 330 78
Condensation-refrigeration package 5,000 500
$6,213 $2,474
Contingency at 2Q% material, 10% labor 1,243 247
$7,456 $2,721
Concrete removal, repair, and tank 2,500
purging $7,456 $5,221
New station cost = $7,456 + $2,721 = $10,177
Revamp station cost = $7,456 + $5,221 = $12,677
Operating Costs to Service Station
Incremental additional replacement cost of the tight seal
vapor return portion of the fill nozzles and the vapor
return portion of the hoses at $30/year.
Cooling water** at 3 gpm at $0.20/M gallons, say $28/year.
Power supply for 3 hp motor at $0.03 kwh, say $63/year.
Maintenance and inspection cost, use 6%/year installed;
equipment cost = $10,159 x 0.03/year = $609/year.
*Labor costs at $16/hour.
**Water is used only when equipment is in operation.
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Case 5 - Vapor Displacement to Underground Storage with
Recovery of Excess Vapors by Activated Carbon Adsorption
Capital Installed Cost to Service Station
The capital costs show breakdown for new and revamp station.
Capital Installed Cost Per Station
Material Labor*
Piping and fittings (screwed) $ 638 $2,096
(6) tight fill nozzles at $40 each.
($12 of this cost is for the tight seal
vapor return feature).
(6) combination fill and vapor return
hoses at $15 each.
($6 of this cost is for the vapor return 330 78
hose).
(8) carbon canisters at $80 each 640 32
Regeneration facilities** 25 12
$1,633 $2,218
Contingency at 20% material, 10% labor 327 222
$1,960 $2,440
Concrete removal, repair, and tank - 2,500
purging $1,ybu $4,y4U
New station cost = $1,960 + $2,440 = $4,400
Revamp station cost = $1,960 + $4,940 = $6,900
Operating Costs to Service Station/Regeneration Terminal
Incremental additional replacement cost of the tight seal
vapor return portion of the fill nozzles and the vapor re-
turn portion of the hoses at $30/year. Power supply for
5 hp vacuum pump motor at $0.03 kwh, say $l/year.
The cost effectiveness for each of the systems reviewed is as
fol1ows:
$/lb vapor tf/gal gas % reduction
Case Description recovered pumped 1977 1985
3 S/S displacement 0.19 0.14 76 95
4 S/S displacement 0.82 0.61 79 98
and refrigeration
5 S/S displacement 0.34 0.25 79 98
and activated carbon
*Labor costs at $16/hour.
**Regeneration facilities for 167 stations.
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From these figures it is obvious that Case 3 represents the most
efficient technique for motor vehicle vapor recovery. Cases 4 and 5 offer
additional recoveries but the incremental costs associated with these
recoveries is very high.
In summary, the controls selected for application to evaporative
emissions resulting from the marketing of gasoline are as follows:
a) Vapor recovery at bulk terminal loading facilities
(where required).
b) Underground tank vapor return to delivery truck.
c) Motor vehicle tank vapor return to underground tank
storage ("Case 3" of Reference 4-10).
4.1.1.7 Open Burning
This control category consists of three sub-categories identified by
the California ARB in its implementation plan source inventory. These
are agricultural incineration, lumber industry incineration and backyard
incineration.
4.1.1.8 Backyard Incineration
The ARB's plan for control of backyard burning should reduce emissions
in this category by 50 percent in 1975:
"...by 1975, backyard burning at single and two-family
dwelling units will no longer be permitted in urban
areas where alternative waste disposal provisions are
available..." (4-10).
4.1.1.9 Lumber Industry Control
Improvements in burning practices to be required of the lumber
industry will reduce emissions in this category by 60 percent in 1975:
"Controls which will promote more complete combustion
in the lumber industry's burning processes will reduce
the emission of highly reactive organic gases..." (4-7).
4.1.1.10 Agricultural Incineration
Finally, a 20 percent reduction in RHC emissions from the incineration
of agricultural wastes is expected because of improved burning practices
(e.g., more complete drying of wastes before incineration).
"By 1975, open burning will have been completely banned
in this basin " (4-7).
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4.1.2 Aircraft Controls
Aircraft control measures can be divided into three categories:
fuel modifications, engine modifications, and modifications of ground
operations. The EPA has studied each of these categories to assess the
pqtential for aircraft emission reduction. After a preliminary analysis
of fuel modification as a category of control measures, it was determined
that no significant reduction in Set II Pollutants could be achieved in
this manner (4-11). Fuels can be modified to reduce emission of sulfur
oxides and lead, but no significant reduction in emission of hydrocarbons,
CO, or NO can be attained this way.
/^
Engine modifications were studied in greater detail by EPA. The
individual measures in this category are described in Table 4-2. Each
of these modifications can reduce the emissions of at least one of the
three pollutants mentioned above by between 50 and 90 percent (4-11).
Table 4-3 lists the estimated development time, development cost, and
implementation cost for each of the engine modifications evaluated.
However, as the table indicates, only one -- fuel drainage control -- can
be implemented in time to be effective in 1975. This measure also has
the lowest estimated total cost. This measure does not, however, reduce
aircraft emissions at the airport, since fuel is not now drained from
planes during the LTO Cycle as specified by the EPA*. Few of the remain-
ing modifications have a high probability of being implementable by 1977.
Cost is also a serious obstacle to implementation of these measures. The
estimated total cost of the least expensive turbine engine modification
is approximately 150 million dollars; the least expensive piston engine
modification is approximately 100 million. In addition, engine modifica-
tions require that the engine be re-certified with the Federal Aviation
Administration (4-12) after the modification is made; this requirement
presents an additional obstacle to the retrofit of in-use aircraft. In
conclusion, because of engineering, economic, and institutional constraints,
th? aircraft control measures listed as engine modifications are not
recommended for implementation in the San Francisco Bay Area for purposes
of attaining the 1975 NAAQS.
*See Appendix E.
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Table 4-2. Engine Modifications for Emission Control
for Existing and Future Engines
CONTROL MEASURE
Turbine Engines
Existing Engines
1. Minor combustion
chamber redesign
2. Major combustion
chamber redesign
3. Fuel drainage control
4. Divided fuel supply
sys tern
5. Water injection
6. Modify compressor air
bleed rate
Future Engines
7. Variable-geometry
combustion chamber
8. Staged injection
combustor
Piston Engines
Existing Engines
1. Fuel-air ratio
control
2. Simple air injection
DESCRIPTION
Minor modification of combustion chamber
and fuel nozzle to achieve best state-of-
art emission performance.
Major modification of combustion chamber
and fuel nozzle incorporating advanced
fuel injection concepts (carburetion or
prevaporization).
Modify fuel supply system or fuel drainage
system to eliminate release of drained
fuel to environment.
Provide independent fuel supplies to sub-
sets of fuel nozzles to allow shutdown
of one or more subsets during low-power
operation.
Install water injection system for short
duration use during maximum power (takeoff
and climb-out) operation.
Increase air bleed rate from compressor at
low-power operation to increase combustor -
fuel-air ratio.
Use of variable airflow distribution to
provide independent control of combustion
zone fuel-air ratio.
Use of advanced combustor design concept
involving a series of combustion zones
with independently controlled fuel
injection in each zone.
Limiting rich fuel-air ratios to only
those necessary for operational reliability,
Air injected at controlled rate into each
engine exhaust port.
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Table 4-2. Engine Modifications for Emission Control
for Existing and Future Engines (Continued)
CONTROL MEASURE
3. Thermal reactors
4. Catalytic reactors
for hydrocarbon and
CO control
5. Direct-flame
afterburner
6. Water injection
Positive crankcase
ventilation
Evaporative emission
controls
Future Engines
9. Engine redesign
DESCRIPTION
Air injection thermal reactor installed in
place of, or downstream of, exhaust manifold.
Air injection catalytic reactor installed
in exhaust system. Operation with lead-
free or low-lead fuel required.
Thermal reactor with injection of air
and additional fuel installed in exhaust
system.
Water injected into intake manifold with
simultaneous reduction in fuel rate to
provide for cooler engine oepration at
leaner fuel-air ratios.
Current PCV system used with automotive
engines applied to aircraft engines.
Effective only in combination with one
of preceding control methods.
A group of control methods used singly or
in combination to reduce evaporative
losses from the fuel system. Control
methods commonly include charcoal absorbers
and vapor traps in combination with
relatively complex valving and fuel flow
systems.
Coordinated redesign of combustion chamber
geometry, compression ratio, fuel distribution
system, spark and valve timing, fuel-air
ratio, and cylinder wall.temperature to
minimize emissions while maintaining
operational reliability.
Source: Aircraft Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of
Control. United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
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Table 4-3. Time and Costs for Modification of
Current Civil Aviation Engines*
Control Measure
Turbine Engines
Minor combustion
chamber redesign
Major combustion
chamber redesign
Fuel drainage control
Divided fuel supply
Water injection
Compressor air bleed
Piston Engines
Simple air injection
Thermal reactor
Catalytic reactor
Direct-flame
afterburner
Water injection
Positive crankcase
ventilation
Evaporative emission
control
Development Development
time cost
(Years) (IP6 Dollars)
2.5 to 5
2.5 to 7.5
1 to 2.5
5 to 7.5
2.5 to 4
4 to 6.5
37
74
1.5
84
25
90
1.5 to 3
3 to 6
2.5 to 5
3 to 6
1.5 to 3
2 to 4
9
25
22
25
9
4
1.5 to 2.5
Implementation
cost
(1Q6 Dollars)
383
665
5.4
102
175
58
165
424
535
424
400
94
269
"Civil aviation" includes air carrier and general aviation engines
Source: Aircraft Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of
Control. United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
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Six methods of modifying ground operations at airports to reduce
aircraft emissions have been studied by EPA. These are as follows:
1) Increase engine speed during idle and taxi operations
2) Increase engine speed and reduce number of engines
operating during idle and taxi
3) Reduce idle operating time by controlling departure
times from gates
4) Reduce taxi operating time by transporting passengers
to aircraft
5) Reduce taxi operating time by towing aircraft between
runway and gate
6) Reduce operating time of aircraft auxiliary power supply
by providing ground-based power supply.
These measures are to be considered for use in connection with turbine
aircraft only (4-11), with the possible exception of Number 3. Each
measure has the potential for reducing THC and CO emissions at a large
airport by amounts which vary between two and 65 percent (4-11). Table
4-4 shows the estimated implementation time, initial cost, and annual
operating cost for each of the ground operations control measures when
applied at a major international airport. Number 3 can be immediately
eliminated because of the development time required. As a result, the
remaining measures can be applied only at large commercial airports,
rather than at both commercial and general aviation airports, since they
are effective only on turbine aircraft. Application of these measures
at military air bases has not been investigated by EPA, although it is
obvious that the measures would not be as effective as they are at Bay
Area airports because military emissions are larger and there is generally
much less time spent per plane in the taxi-idle mode of the LTD cycle at
the air base.
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Table 4-4. Costs and Time for Operations Changes
at a Large International Airport
Annual. Operating
Time Initial Cost Cost Change*
Control Measure (Years) do6 Dollars) (IP6 Dollars)
1. Increase engine speed 0 0 8.5
2. Increase speed, reduce 0.3 0 -0.7
number
3. Control gate departure 5 15 -0.4
4. Transport passengers 2.5 65 5.0
5. Tow aircraft 1 1.2 0.4
6. Reduce APU operation 0.5 1.3 1.5
*Minus sign indicates an estimated savings.
Source: Aircraft Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility of
Control. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1973.
Measures 1, 4, and 6 are, in general, relatively ineffective in
reducing aircraft emissions at major airports (4-11), and, as Table 4-4
indicates, they are more expensive than the remaining two measures.
EPA has determined that measure Number 2 is the most cost effective
of all measures listed in both categories studied -- engine modifications
and ground operations. Number 5 is more costly and slightly more effective
(4-11) than 2 and it is less accurately quantifiable than 2 because of the
significant difference in the availability of data. Also Number 5 is more
dependent on the geometry and layout of the particular airport. As a
result, ground operations measure Number 2 has been selected for further
evaluation as a potential control measure.
4.1.3 Vehicular Controls
There are a number of control measures for reducing motor vehicle
hydrocarbon, CO and oxides of nitrogen emissions. In this section, each
measure is defined and is accompanied by a brief discussion of the techni-
cal and economic aspects of its implementation.
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The programs to be described are as follows:
Vehicle inspection/maintenance
t Retrofit measures:
Vacuum spark advance disconnect
Lean idle setting
Catalytic converters
Air bleed
Positive crankcase ventilation
Exhaust gas recirculation
4.1.3.1 Inspection/Maintenance
For a number of years, the State of California has had a program
requiring emission control to be inspected or installed on used cars before
they are registered by new owners. A Certificate of Compliance from a
Class A (licensed) service station is required to meet this measure and to
insure the proper idle setting, air/fuel ratio, and ignition timing. The
California Highway Patrol (CHP) has also been administering roadside, spot
inspections to check for safety as well as idle emissions. Vehicles which
fail the emissions test are required to visit the Class A station. About
15 percent of the vehicle population is inspected by the CHP each year.
It has been found that a substantial emission reduction can be
achieved when the motor vehicle population is properly serviced.
Vehicles emitting three times their specified allowable rates have been
identified in the existing inspection program. The emission reduction
potential that could be obtained by identifying all vehicles which need
servicing is great, especially in a time when emission controls are
becoming more complex and prone to deterioration. A more rigorous
inspection strategy is desired.
Inspection/maintenance measures are intended to reduce vehicular
emission through a program of mechanical and analytical inspection,
followed by a mandatory maintenance. Maintenance (tune up, repair, parts
replacement, etc.) will, therefore, allow each vehicle to operate in a
significantly less polluting fashion.
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Generally, maintenance requirements are based on the results of a
periodic idle emissions test or a loaded emissions test. By selecting
the appropriate percentage failure rate for vehicles tested, it is possible
to obtain varying levels of effectiveness for the program. Increasing the
failure rate criteria results in higher emission reductions.
The idle emissions test is run by sampling exhaust emissions when
the vehicle is in the idle mode. The sample is analyzed to determine
pollutant emission levels. Maintenance is required if the vehicle exceeds
established emission limits. This procedure is easier and less expensive
to run than the loaded emissions test and can be done at most service
stations.
The loaded emissions test is conducted using a chassis dynamometer
and a trained technician. The nature of the test equipment and skill
required to run this test makes it both more time consuming and expensive
than an idle test. However, the loaded inspection is a more diagnostic
test, and is effective in pinpointing defective engine and emission control
components. The vehicle is operated on the dynamometer at different load
modes that simulate various modes of normal operation. The exhaust is
sampled'at each mode in the same way that it is sampled in the idle
emissions test. High cruise, low cruise, and idle, are three modes that
might be tested. Certain engine malfunctions can then be traced by
referring to a "truth chart" which serves as a maintenance aid.
With either test, criteria can be established so that a certain
percentage of vehicles will fail the initial inspection and be subject
to maintenance. Table 4-5 shows what average annual percent reductions
are to be expected in light duty vehicle exhaust emissions for each test
as a function of percent initial failure of the vehicle population (4-13).
Table 4-5. Average Annual Percent Reductions
Percent Initial Failure Rate 10 20 30 40 50
Percent Emission Reduction
Hydrocarbons (loaded) 8 11 13 14 15
Hydrocarbons (idle) 6 8 10 11 11
CO (loaded) 4 7 9 11 12
CO (idle) 3 6 8 9 10
Source: EPA
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The impact of inspection/maintenance on emissions is fairly predictable,
since the proposed program would be a mandatory one. Public opinion surveys
indicate most people favor such a program. However, the tendency of such a
program is to be socially regressive because it is the older cars that are
the most vulnerable to maintenance. The economic burden will, therefore,
hit lower income people harder.
4.1.3.2 Retrofit Measures
Any device or system adjustment that can be added to a motor vehicle
after it is sold and which reduces emissions is classified a retrofit.
Many emission control retrofits have been evaluated. The more successful
and implementable devices are discussed in this section. The reader is
referred to two other documents for a more in-depth discussion of these
and other devices: "Control Strategies for In-use Vehicles," an EPA
document, and "Emission Control of Used Cars," by the Technical Advisory
Committee of the California ARE.
Like the inspection/maintenance program, retrofit measures are
likely to impact older vehicles to a greater degree than newer vehicles.
The reduction effect of different retrofit options on the three major
motor vehicle pollutants is shown in Table 4-6, with the installation
cost for each option also indicated. It must be assumed that these
retrofits are coexistent with an inspection/maintenance program as the
values shown for percent reduction of each pollutant can be applied to
maintained vehicles only (4-14 and 4-15).
Table 4-6. Retrofit Control Measures
Installed Average Reduction per Vehicle (%)
Retrofit Option Cost HP. P_P_ Mx
Pre-controlled Vehicles
Lean idle air/fuel ration $ 20 25 9 23
adjustment and vacuum spark
advance disconnect
Oxidizing catalytic converter 195 68 63 48
and vacuum spark advance
disconnect
Air bleed to intake manifold 60 21 58 0
Exhaust gas recirculation and 35 12 31 48
vacuum spark advance disconnect
Controlled vehicles
Oxidizing catalytic converter 175 50 50 0
Exhaust gas recirculation 50 0 0 40
Source: EPA
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Each measure shown in the table is defined below with a brief description
of each one's technical and economic implications.
Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect - This modification to the
distributor involves changing cylinder combustion conditions in
such a way that up to a 50 percent reduction in hydrocarbons is
possible. The durability of such a system is very good. Fuel
economy will deteriorate, and in some vehicles this deterioration
may be as much as 20 percent. Hotter running engines is another
factor which must be considered, with overheating in hot weather
and high exhaust valve wear distinct possibilities.
Lean Idle Setting - This is a measure which might increase fuel
economy as much as five percent. The cost of this modification
is nominal ($3-$6), and a mechanic with the right instrumentation
can perform the setting easily. The buildup of deposits in the
carburetor is the only major durability problem aside from the
high probability of mechanic or owner tampering due to the
expected decrease in idle quality.
Oxidizing Catalytic Converter - Catalysts offer a substantial
reduction in CO and hydrocarbons after the device has warmed up
sufficiently. The lowest levels of lead, phosphorous, and sulfur
in the currently available fuels will introduce a durability
problem to the catalyst. If older cars are to be retrofitted
with catalytic converters they will have to be detuned considerably
so they can run on no-lead gasoline.
The operation of the catalytic principle involves the circu-
lation of exhaust gas over the heated bed of material that readily
converts hydrocarbons and CO into water and CO,,.
The installation of the catalyst should be relatively straight-
forward. It is estimated that the cost may be considerably lower
than that shown in the table when they are production items in 1975.
Air Bleed - This is a low cost, simple installation retrofit
measure. If it is well designed, it will reduce emissions at about
the same rate as a lean idle setting or leaner carburetor jets.
There will be no problem with durability. Driving performance will
be reduced, however.
Positive Crankcase Ventilation - PCV has been incorporated on all
new cars in California since 1963 as one of the first emission
control measures. It essentially eliminates all of the emission
losses from the crankcase area. Air is vented through the crankcase
and mixed with the blowby gas. It is then recirculated into the
intake manifold through the variable orifice called the "PVC valve."
Exhaust Gas Recirculation - This measure is designed to reduce oxides
of nitrogen emissions substantially. Installation is somewhat diffi-
cult and moderately costly. Durability is good provided low lead
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gasoline is used and there are no engine malfunctions (e.g., mis-
fire, flooding, or oil burning)". Otherwise, the system is liable
to become plugged, requiring a low cost repair. Driving performance
could be severely hampered with this system. Fuel economy also
suffers.
4.1.4 Alternative VMT Control Measures and Their Effects
4.1.4.1 Procedures for Assessing Effectiveness of VMT Controls
To evaluate the relative effectiveness of various VMT reduction
strategies, it was necessary to develop an analytical methodology capable
of predicting potential transit ridership for a set of critical variables.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to quantify factors people use to rate the
attractiveness of car pools, bicycling, walking, etc., relative to driving
alone or riding aboard a bus or rail vehicle. To date, research on these
topics has been limited (4-16 and 4-17).
Parameters affecting transit ridership are better understood. Models
have been developed which can reasonably estimate the proportion of total
trips between two geographical locations that will be made via mass transit.
MTC and most of the current transportation studies in the Bay Area are using
a mode choice model developed by BATSC in 1968 from 1965 travel data.
However, to use the BATSC mode split model for evaluation of VMT reduction
scenarios required three preparatory steps: 1) BATSC data had to be
reaggregated and mode choice curves modified to reflect evaluation
requirements; 2) several' basic assumptions were necessary in equating
travel time and out of pocket costs, since the BATSC curves reflect sensi-
tivity to travel time only; and 3) relationships had to be derived for
converting increases in transit ridership to VMT reduction.
4.1.4.1.1 Modifying the Bay Area Mode Choice Model
Basically, the BATSC mode split model relates the time advantage
of auto or transit travel with percent of total persons using transit.
The pattern of home based work and related business trips, referred to
here as "work trips," closely approximates rush hour travel. The
remaining travel can be grouped as "other trips," and closely approxi-
mates typical midday travel patterns.
In an effort to simplify the amount of necessary calculations,
BATSC data were aggregated from 291 traffic zones to 30 larger super dis-
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tricts. Intradistrict trips were separated out as "local" travel (i.e., gen-
erally under 10 miles in length) and the remaining interdistrict trips were
subdivided into those destined for: 1) the San Francisco CBD, 2) elsewhere
in San Francisco, 3) Oakland-Berkeley, and 4) other locations tabu-
lated by county. BATSC mode choice curves were then adjusted to fit the
several trip purposes and origin-destination combinations.
Appendix C contains a detailed description and illustration of
procedures. The various resulting mode choice curves are presented
below.
Work Travel to Downtown San Francisco
Figure 4-1 illustrates mode choice behavior for travel to the San
Francisco CBD from San Francisco locations and locations outside San
Francisco. The steep slope of the curves reflects high terminal
cost -- traffic congestion and $2-$5 daily parking fee and a high
degree of transit access. The horizontal axis relates actual auto travel
time to actual transit travel time, including wait and transfer time.
The vertical axis indicates percent of persons using transit for various
transit/auto travel time ratios. These curves reflect a current average
transit/auto travel time ratio of 1.6 for rush hour trips to downtown San
Francisco. This converts to 37 percent transit usage for trips originat-
ing in San Francisco and 52 percent transit usage for trips coming from
out of town. These curves are sensitive to travel time only and cannot
by themselves be used to assess the effects of changing out of pocket
costs such as fares, gasoline prices, tolls, etc.
The San Francisco mode choice curves indicate that cutting transit
travel time in half or doubling auto travel time would have the same net
effect; for example, a transit/auto travel time ratio of 0.8 would
result in an estimated transit usage of 52 and 64 percent respectively,
for trips from San Francisco and from outside the City. The steepness
of the slope of these curves indicates strong potential for diverting
passengers to transit and reducing VMT through traffic constraints applied
to corridors entering San Francisco.
Work Trips to Elsewhere in San Francisco
Figure 4-2 shows mode choice behavior for trips to non-CBD locations
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CO
1
CO
a.
o
CO
Q.
U_
O
From San Francisco
From Elsewhere
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit time/auto time)
Figure 4-1. Mode Choice for Work Travel to
San Francisco CBD
From San Francisco
From Elsewhere
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit time/auto time)
Figure 4-2. Mode Choice for Work Travel to
Remainder of San Francisco
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in San Francisco. The curve for San Francisco origins is much steeper
than the curve for origins outside San Francisco. This reflects the
necessity for out-of-town riders to transfer one or more times to reach
non-CBD locations and greater auto ownership for residents outside the
City.
Current transit usage for trips to non-CBD locations ranges between
20 and 30 percent for San Francisco origins but only accounts for about
eight percent of trips coming from outside the City. The relative
inelasticity of these curves implies that control measures directed at
lowering the transit/auto travel time ratio would not significantly
influence the current transit ridership levels. For example, if it were
somehow possible to reduce the transit/auto travel time ratio from
3 to 1.5 by some control measure(s), one would probably increase transi-t
ridership from origins outside San Francisco by about 3 percent
(i.e. from approximately 7 to 10 percent). To cut the transit/auto travel
time ratio in half would require substantial improvements in transit and/or
very severe restrictions on the auto.
Work Trips to Oakland-Berkeley
Figure 4-3 illustrates mode choice behavior for Oakland-Berkeley
destinations. The curves turn decidedly upward to the left as transit
gains a time advantage over the automobile. The shape of the curves
reflect parking costs around major employers and the high level of transit
access available. Current transit use varies from 14 to 23 percent for
trips originating in Oakland, Berkeley or San Francisco down to three
percent for trips coming in from low density outlying areas. These data
denote again the higher transit ridership for residents within the local
region.
Other Work Trips
Figures 4-4 through 4-6 illustrate transit/auto mode choice
behavior associated with work trips to locations outside San Francisco,
Oakland and Berkeley. Note that with one exception, the curves are
relatively flat in the 5 to 10 percent by transit range. These curves
indicate that the prospects for diversion associated with improving
transit accessibility or increasing auto travel time are relatively
low.
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co
CO
Q.
o
CO
OL
80
60
40
20
o
a:
\
From Oakland, Berkeley & S.F,
From Elsewhere
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit time/auto time)
Figure 4-3. Mode Choice for Work Travel to
Oakland-Berkeley
co
CO
Q-
O
CO
LU
a.
u.
o
80
60
40
20
From Oakland, Berkeley & S.F.
From Elsewhere
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit time/auto time)
Figure 4-4. Mode Choice for Work Travel to Remainder
of Alameda and Contra Costa Counties
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CO
Q-
O
1/1
Q.
U-
O
From San Francisco
From Elsewhere
20
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 . 5.0
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit time/auto time)
Figure 4-5. Mode Choice for Work Travel to
San Mateo and Marin Counties
CO
DC
\~
o
OO
(X
o
1/1
ce
LU
Q.
(X
From All Locations
80
60
40
20
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit time/auto time)
Figure 4-6. Mode Choice for Work Travel to Santa Clara,
Solano, Sonoma and Napa Counties
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The single exception is the curve for San Francisco residents
commuting to neighboring Marin and San Mateo Counties. The steeper
slope of this curve is due primarily to lower auto ownership in San
Francisco.
Non-Work Trips to San Francisco
Figure 4-7 shows mode choice relationships for non-work trips to San
Francisco CBD and non-CBD locations. Note the steep slope to the CBD
oriented curve, while a much flatter curve applies to travel to outlying
San Francisco. Current midday transit use to downtown San Francisco is
about 20 percent. Midday transit use to non-CBD locations ranges between
14 percent for San Francisco origins to 10 percent for origins outside the
city.
Non-Work Trips Destined Outside San Francisco
Figure 4-8 illustrates mode choice behavior for non-work trips to
Oakland-Berkeley and to the remainder of Bay Area (outside San Francisco,
Oakland, and Berkeley). Only the Oakland-Berkeley curve indicates
potential diversion from auto to transit given changes in relative auto/
transit travel time. Even here though, only modest increases in transit
ridership appear possible.
4.1.4.1.2 Equating Travel Cost and Time - The Concept of Impedance
To analyze the effects of change in toll, parking costs, transit fare
or other costs associated with auto or transit travel, several assumptions
were made to equate costs to travel time. The sum of travel time and cost
equivalent, expressed as impedance (Equation 4.1), reflects the total
effort involved in making any given trip. Relationships similar to
Equations (4.1) and (4.2) have been developed by DeLeuw, Gather and Com-
pany (4-18), A.M.Voorhees and Associates (4-17), and others for application
elsewhere. Specific assumptions for time penalties, income, and other
variables are hypothesized for general analytical purposes only in the
absence of data applicable to the Bay Area. Assumptions are believed valid
for general order of magnitude comparisons.
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CO
CO
Q.
o
CO
a:
o
a:
60
40
20
0
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit Time/Auto Time)
Figure 4-7. Mode Choice for Non-Work Travel
to San Francisco
To San Francisco CBD
To Elsewhere in San Francisco
co
CO
o.
o
co
60
40
Q.
fe 20
iTo Oakland-Berkeley
iTo Elsewhere in Alameda, Contra Costa,
San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara, Solano,
Sonoma & Mapa Counties
0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit time/auto time)
Figure 4-8. Mode Choice for Non-Work Travel
to Locations Outside San Francisco
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Assume IT = W, + W^ + W, + F1 (4.1)
where
IT = Impedance (net time effort + money)
required for transit trip.
W.| = Walking time x 2 (penalty perceived)
W« = Wait time x 3 (penalty perceived)
W- = Ride time
F = Transit fare
i = Factor relating fare to time
(based on average hourly wage),
here assumed constant at 1 hour per $3.
Assume I. = d, + d, + d, + W, + (0 + T + P)i (4.2)
M I ff
-------
90
80
70
K- 60
>-
CO
CO
Q.
co
OL
50
40
a.
u. 30
o
o
a:
20
10
0
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
RATIO OF TRAVEL IMPEDANCE AUTO/TRANSIT
Figure 4-9. Bay Area Mode Choice Reflecting
Travel Cost and Time
Source: Postulated from BATSC
Mode Split Data
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Figure 4-9 shows the Bay Area mode choice curve postulated from the
foregoing equations and the BATSC travel data. Points on the various
BATSC mode choice curves were converted to impedance, knowing transit
fares, wait times, tolls, parking costs, etc.
Sensitivity of Impedance Variables to Control
Table 4-7 describes potential control over the various impedance
variables. Lower transit fares and increased driving time, vehicle
operating costs, and tolls can be applied with a minimum of administrative
problems; their effect is immediate. Improved transit services require
response time to become effective and offer greatest potential when
applied in conjunction with other controls. Parking controls may be
effective but pose administrative problems because of the multiplicity
of ownership and special circumstances likely to arise. Some loss of
effectiveness in parking control is likely as wives drop husbands off at
work, drivers circle the block while riders shop, etc. The effectiveness
of measures to increase walking time for auto users is difficult to pro-
ject, with a likely side effect being to merely add a short transit
shuttle trip to the end of a long auto trip.
Using the Concept of Impedance - 4 Examples
Figure 4-10 compares transit and auto impedances for four Bay Area
work trip situations. Each round trip originates in Concord. For analysis
purposes BART was considered open under the Bay to San Francisco and
frequent local bus service (10 minute headways) was assumed available in
central Contra Costa County. Impedance for a local trip to Walnut Creek
involving a round trip of 10 miles consists primarily of travel time --
riding, driving, waiting and walking. Reducing transit fare would have
little effect on the ratio of transit/auto impedances. Doubling the
price of gasoline, which would increase mileage costs by 50 percent,
also would have little effect. Significant diversion from auto to transit
wrjld appear to require direct limitations on auto usage, e.g., gas
rationing, restricted car ownership. Significant short term increases in
bicycling and walking or elimination of unnecessary trips appear to require
similar vehicle controls for effectiveness.
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Table 4-7. Control of Impedance Parameters
Impedance
Parameter
Potential
for Control
W, (walk time) Low
hL (transit wait) Medium
W3 (transit ride) Medium
F (transit fare) High
i (income) Very low
d, d9 d, (driving High
1 * J time)
0 (vehicle High
operation)
T (toll) High
P (parking)
Medium
Example(s) of Control Aimed
at Decreasing I^/Ij * _
More bus stops and/or routes;
auto free zones
Improve frequency of service;
Exclusive bus lanes; rail rapid transit
Lower fares
Lower personal income levels
Limit number of traffic lanes in use
Gasoline tax, "smog" tax
Raise bridge tolls, freeway tolls
Limit on-street parking, parking space tax,
restrict new parking construction
See Impedance Equations (4.1) and (4.2).
A round trip to downtown Oakland from Concord involves an
impedance of about 2 hours and 20 minutes, whether by auto or by transit.
About 50 percent transit usage should be expected under such circumstances.
Out of pocket costs -- fare, mileage, and parking -- constitute a larger
share of impedance than in the case of the local trip. Eliminating fare
would reduce the transit/auto impedance ratio to about 0.6, a measure
which conceivably could raise transit usage to 65 percent. Traffic
flow restrictions along the freeway, e.g., elimination of lanes through the
Caldecott Tunnel, could increase the competitive advantage of transit
still further.
A round trip to the Port of Oakland represents longer trips to a
non-CBD location, one which typically requires a public transit rider
to transfer one or more times to reach his destination. Direct transit
service offered on a subscription basis would be one way of making the
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transit ride more competitive with the auto. It would be difficult in
this case to better the 1.25 transit/auto impedance ratio, since BART
holds a time advantage due to separate right of way. Eliminating transit
fare could reduce the impedance ratio to 1.0. Inducing constraints on
travel through the Caldecott Tunnel could have a similar effect.
The fourth situation involves travel to the San Francisco CBD.
Impedance associated with this round trip is quite high -- almost three
hours by transit and four hours by auto. The transit/auto impedance
ratio should be about 0.7 when BART opens, meaning about 63 percent
transit usage. For further reduction in auto use, reducing transit fare
would be one of the most effective measures. It would take about a $5
increase in bridge toll or parking fees to obtain the same 0.5 impedance
ratio possibly by reducing transit fare to a flat 25 cents in each direc-
tion. Using a combination of very low transit fare, increased bridge
and restrictions on auto travel across the Bay Bridge, a 0.4 impedance
ratio appears achievable. This translates to roughly 75 percent of work
trips from Concord to San Francisco CBD by transit.
4.1.4.1.3 Converting Percent Transit Usage to VMT Reduction
Mode choice curves provide the basis for estimating trips diverted
from auto to transit for various VMT control strategies. To convert trip
diversion to VMT reduction requires attention to trip length and auto
occupancy, factors which vary with trip purpose and origin/destination
combination. Transit experience indicates more long trips may be diverted
to transit than short trips with various control measures. To not consider
length of trip in assessing VMT reduction would tend to underestimate the
effectiveness of controls.
Fortunately, BATSC 1980 vehicle travel forecasts were available in
a manner which; permitted regional VMT to be disaggregated for the same trip
purposes and origin/destination combinations used in projecting percent
transit usage (Appendix C, Tables C-6, C-7, C-8).
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4.1.4.2 Evaluation of Measures for VMT Reduction
A full range of possible VMT reduction strategies was screened to
select those with greatest Bay Area application. The effects of eight
scenarios with greatest potential were subsequently quantified:
1. Intercepting auto traffic entering San Francisco
via tolls, metering, reduced transit fare, parking
regulation (Section 4.1.4.2.1)
2. Suburban employer parking restrictions/subscription
bus and carpooling (Section 4.1.4.2.2)
3. Moratoriums on development in automobile dependent
regions (Section 4.1.4.2.3)
4. Traffic disincentives/transit preferential treat- '
ment (Section 4.1.4.2.4) '
5. Free transit fare (Section 4.1.4.2.5)
6. Improved local transit (Section 4.1.4.2.6)
7. Gas taxing/pricing (Section 4.1.4.2.7)
8. Gas rationing (Section 4.1.4.2.8).
Several other scenarios were explored, but their effect was not quantified
because of insufficient time or lack of data with which to make reasonable
estimates.
1. Toll/metering in corridors not entering San Francisco (Section
4.1.4.2.9)
2. Parking tax (Section 4.1.4.2.10)
3. Vehicle registration surcharge (Section 4.1.4.2.11)
4. Carpooling (Section 4.1.4.2.12)
5. Traffic flow improvements (Section 4.1.4.2.13)
6. Work schedule changes (Section 4.1.4.2.14)
7. Reducing vehicle usage (Section 4.1.4.2.15)
8. Reducing trip requirements (Section 4.1.4.2.16)
9. Network of bicycle paths (Section 4.1.4.2.17).
4.1.4.2.1 Intercepting Auto Traffic Entering San Francisco
Geographic features of the San Francisco Bay region have constrained
land use and transportation system development to the extent that large
portions of regional travel are confined to closely defined corridors and
a limited number of facilities. This presents a unique opportunity to
produce significant shifts in modal mix through toll position, auto/transit
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pricing schemes, or absolute metering at a limited number of control
stations.
If control stations were placed on US 101 and Interstate 280 in
the vicinity of the San Francisco - San Mateo County line, these, in con-
junction with the existing toll stations on the Golden Gate and
San Francisco - Oakland Bay bridges, could toll or meter virtually all
travel between the City and County of San Francisco and the rest of the
region. Some leakage would occur along the San Francisco - San Mateo
border, but alternative routes are unattractive and limited in capacity.
Viable transit alternatives exist in all three corridors - - Greyhound
bus and Southern Pacific rail commute services in the Peninsula (San Mateo)
corridor, Golden Gate bus and ferry service in the Marin (Golden Gate)
corridor and AC Transit bus and (after September 1973) BART rail service
in the transbay (Bay Bridge) corridor (transbay Greyhound commute services
will largely be discontinued with full BART system operation). The potential
effectiveness of this measure is very significant. Table 4-8 indicates
average weekday vehicle driver trips produced outside the above defined
corridor and attracted within it for work and all purposes.
Table 4-8. External Trip Attractions - San Francisco, 1965
Daily Person Percent Of
Trips Region Total
Work 366,800 20.4
All Purposes 1,051,500 16.9
Source: BATSC 1965 Origin-Destination Survey
In addition large segments of other regional travel passes through the
corridor. Capacity on each of the three major commuter bus services and
the Southern Pacific rail service could be expanded incrementally to
meet increased passenger demands.
Transbay BART capacity may be constrained over the next year by car
availability and scheduling (control) problems but should eventually
be capable of handling almost any volume of transbay commuters on a
standee basis.
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Alternate Approaches to Intercepting Traffic into San Francisco
Four approaches could be used separately, or in combination to
encourage transit use into San Francisco:
1. Increase tolls coming into the city
2. Impose physical constraints, e.g., bus and carpool lanes
3. Reduce transit fares
4. Reduce parking availability in the San Francisco CBD.
A pricing strategy involving simultaneous raising of tolls and lowering
of fares would appear to be the most desirable first line of attack,
while relying on traffic restraints and reduced parking as a backup -- .
to not let faster travel times and cheaper parking undo the effectiveness
of the pricing strategy.
There are several advantages of intercepting auto traffic entering
San Francisco. First, is the ability to affect modal shifts of large
numbers of trips through the addition of only two new control- stations
(with modification of "control" at the two existing toll stations) and
the ready availability of alternative transportation services. Revenues
generated through increased tolls could be used to subsidize';.and expand
transit services in the affected corridors. The proposal has flexibility
in that control can be imposed on a peak period or all day basis and
control can be tightened or eased as necessary to achieve the desired
modal shifts, both initially and as conditions change with introduction
of non-polluting or low-polluting vehicles to the vehicle population.
Principal drawbacks of the scheme stem from considerations of
equity and long term effects. Equity considerations involve placing
the burden of control upon that segment of the Bay Area population which
travels to or through San Francisco. Over the long term, such controls
could increase pressures for new development in the auto-oriented portions
of the region rather than in the already highly transit-oriented central
portions in which this control is imposed. Dependence on this control
for a large proportion of the total regional emission rollback required
could result in a continued major air quality problem, particularly in
the South Bay area.
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Increased Toll
Using mode choice curves for San Francisco-oriented trips, regional
trip interchanges, and VMT figures, VMT reductions were estimated for
1) 50 cent toll increase; 2) $2 toll increase; and 3) $10 toll increase
(Table C-9, Appendix C). Separate estimates were obtained for a strategy
directed toward rush hour commute traffic only and for a strategy
applicable on a 24 hour basis. A modest 50 cent toll increase round
trip could be expected to induce only a small VMT reduction (0.2 percent
reduction for peak hour; 0.5 percent on a 24 hour basis). Even a
relatively large $2 toll increase would only yield a net VMT reduction
of 0.6 percent for the peak hour and 1.4 percent for 24 hour application.
The travel time and cost of the commute trip to San Francisco is already
so high that tolls would have to be raised on the order of $10 per round
trip to cut vehicular traffic into the city in half (3 percent reduction
in commute VMT and 6.8 percent reduction if applied on a 24 hour basis).
Metering
Metering, preempting lanes for buses and carpools or otherwise
restricting the volume of traffic flow into San Francisco should
theoretically have an effect similar to toll increases, with an hour
of time delay each day roughly equivalent to $6-9 worth of toll increase.
The major problem associated with the artificial traffic constraint is
that if applied in isolation, it is likely to be perceived as counterproductive
-- artificially induced constraint which increases the amount of time on the
road. Taking away half the lanes entering the city during the peak hour
could cut overall VMT by three percent. Midday and evening VMT reduction
would be more difficult to achieve.
Lowered Transit Fares
Drastically reducing or eliminating transit fares coming into the
city offers incentives to use transit rather than penalties on the auto.
Because travel costs are already high going into San Francisco, an
incremental decrease in transit fare promises to be more effective than
an equivalent toll increase. Free fare on trips to San Francisco should
decrease VMT by about two percent if applicable to commute trips and
about 4.5 percent on a 24 hour basis.
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Parking Restrictions
Reduced parking supply can be viewed as a direct control on auto
traffic coming into the city or as a necessary add-on to other strategies
aimed at reducing VMT associated with travel to San Francisco. With 37
percent of CBD parking in on-street spaces and an additional estimated
40 percent on government owned parcels off-street (See Base Line Data
Section, Parking Conditions), government action alone (without affecting
private spaces) could conceivably achieve a reduction of 50 to 60 percent.
A 50 percent reduction in travel to the San Francisco CBD would
require a commensurate decrease in parking supply if parking rates are toi
remain the same while toll increases, transit fare decreases and/or traffic
constraints are taking effect. If parking supply stays the same while
commuter demand decreases, more San Francisco residents may choose to drive
downtown and/or parking rates may drop, partially countering the objectives
of constraint on auto travel into the city.
4.1.4.2.2 Suburban Employer Parking Restrictions/Subscription Bus
and Carpooling
This scenario was designed to affect that portion of work trips
destined to lower density locations outside San Francisco and central
Oakland-Berkely. Previous transit analysis of Mare Island Facility in
Vallejo (4-19), Lawrence Radiation Laboratory and Sandia Corporation in
Livermore (4-20), and the General Motors Assembly Plant in Fremont (4-21)
showed that sufficient market existed at major employers to offer subscrip-.
tion bus service. Private charter companies typically provide this service
with drivers being employees of the firms served. For a fixed monthly
fee, the driver picks up employees within their neighborhood in route
to work. Experience indicates such service can be run economically by the
private operator where riders commute over 10 miles. For employees
living 5 to 10 miles from work, a mixture of carpooling and subscription
bus service constitute a reasonable option to the automobile.
Employees living closer than 5 miles may bicycle, walk, or husbands
or wives may drive them to work and pick them up in the evening, there-
by increasing work trip VMT.
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The approach envisioned is for the employer to reduce the number
of parking spaces available to employees. Employers of 1000 employees
or more are seen as the initial target. Employers of 500 to 1000 and
industrial parks would be the next order of priority. A 50 percent
reduction in VMT seems reasonable given an estimated distribution of
50 percent living over 10 miles, 25 percent living 5 to 10 miles and
25 percent living less than 5 miles from work (4-20). Considerable slip-
page is expected in the under 5 mile zone as wives drop husbands off at
work and pick them up in the evening, thereby doubling work trip VMT.
To offset this probability, prescribed reduction in parking spaces
would have to be greater than 50 percent. Initial testing and monitoring
will be necessary to set criteria.
Table 4-9 contains a summary of approximate employment at firms
of over 1000 employees, for the area outside the intensive transit
area -- San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley (also shown in Figure 4-11).
A 50 percent reduction in travel to these generators (reduced parking,
subscription bus service and carpooling) could be expected to reduce
Bay Area VMT by 1.9 percent (50 percent reduction, 320,000 employee
vehicle trips affected out of 3,500,000 Bay Area vehicle work trips, and
42 percent of VMT associated with work trips).
*
Table 4-9. Employment at Bay Area Firms With Over 1000 Employees
County Employees
San Mateo 45,500
Santa Clara 59,000
Alameda 19,600
Contra Costa 17,100
Solano 15,000
Napa 2,000
Marin 4,000
Total 162,200
Excluding San Francisco, Oakland and Berkeley
Source: Bay Area Chambers of Commerce and Industrial Promotion
Associations, 1972-73
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San Francisco,
Central Oaklan
Berkeley
1,000 - 4,99!
5,000 - 9,99'
10,000 - +
CONTRA COSTA
SANTA CLARA
Source: Local Chambers of Commerce and
Industrial Promotion Associations
Figure 4-11.
Major Employers Outside San Francisco and
Central Oakland-Berkeley
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Applied to an estimated additional 50,000 employment in Oakland-
Berkeley outside the central cities, the 50 percent work travel reduction
strategy would result in a total 2.5 percent VMT reduction. A more
stringent approach directed at eliminating 75 percent of the VMT associated
with employers of over 1000 employees would yield 3.6 percent VMT
reduction.
Firms with over 1000 employees were singled out for initial
application of the parking reduction strategy. Suburban firms of this
size constitute about ten percent of the region's employment. These
firms tend to attract employees from a large catchment .area, and large
numbers of employees commuting long distances provide a suitable market
for subscription bus service.
Unless areas three to four blocks around a major employer are
signed to prevent employee on-street parking, reduction in off-street
parking could lose much of its effectiveness. Control of parking
around large firms can be effectively administered, however, using a
"protected neighborhood" signing. Local resident cars would be
identified by special sticker and allowed to use curbside spaces, while
other cars would be limited to one hour parking or prohibited altogether.
Protected neighborhood signing would be applicable to areas around
colleges, hospitals and other large generators as well as manufacturing
or office centers. Shopping center employee parking will be most
difficult to control. Requirement of an overall parking space reduction
at shopping centers might encourage store owners to limit employee
parking in off-street spaces intended for customers.
4.1.4.2.3 Moratoriums on Development
Building moratoriums are imposed in California communities for
inadequacies in sewer, water and school systems and for preparation of
a general plan. The concept behind the moratorium is to prevent further
damage from continued development while the local area is coming to
grips with its problems. A spin-off of the moratorium is the channel of
new growth into areas that have services available.
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A moratorium might be effective at reducing VMT if imposed on
particularly fast growing, particularly auto dominated areas. Unfortunately,
the moratorium offers no positive incentives for development of transit.
Its effect are not likely to be immediate, but could be measurable over
3 to 5 years.
A moratorium over the entire urban area would not be effective,
but if applied to specific problem locations could channel growth into
; transit use areas and give time to effect a turnaround in planning and
development of transit and land use control.
Moratorium Because of No Local Transit Service
i
There are a number of subareas within the Bay Area with no local
service to feed the long-haul or intercity transit system, i.e.,
Tri-Cities, Livermore-Amador Valley, Eastern Contra Costa County, Peta-
luma, and much of the Peninsula and Santa Clara County. Moratoriums
on development in areas surrounding BART stations might be somewhat
counter-productive since these areas are expected to fill in with
large percentages of BART users.
A moratorium was considered for all development within the urbanized
area not within 1/4 mile of transit route with 30 minute service.
This would provide an incentive for development within transit service
areas. A minimum of eight percent transit use could be expected from
new development. This control might affect 80 percent of Bay Area growth
in the next four years. Population growth in the next four years is
expected to be about six percent over the present level. A 0.3 percent
VMT reduction could be expected, and although the reduction is small
the strategy is consistent with a long range approach needed to combat
vehicle-related pollution.
Moratorium Because of Inadequate Regional Transit System
Santa Clara County is the principal problem area relative to
inadequate regional transit service. There currently is no county wide,
intercity transit network tying into transit systems to the north.
Current county plans do envision an improved service within the next
year. Meanwhile, growth^ is taking place at a rapid pace and in a manner
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not conducive to transit use. A moratorium on new development might
be imposed until the County develops a regional transit system capable of
attracting riders from their automobiles. An effective regional system
will require on the order of 10 minute peak hour service - 30 minute
off-peak, linking all communities in the urbanized area. Exempting
individual localities within a county, e.g., San Jose and Palo Alto,
which currently have transit, would work against the idea of spurring develop-
ment of an effective county-wide transit system. The implications of such a
moratorium would be similar to the moratorium because of no local transit
service.
Moratorium On Major Traffic Generators Outside Transit Centers
Such a moratorium would be directed toward controlling location of
regional shopping centers, colleges,'or employers with over 1,000
employees in locations outside established activity focal points, e.g.,
downtowns, transportation centers. This is a holding action designed to
prevent deterioration. Six shopping centers and several colleges are
currently proposed in suburban locations in the Bay Area. An aggregate
effect of five percent induced VMT could be expected as a result of new
major suburban traffic generators over a period of five years. Per-
cent by transit to these sites would be on the order of 0 to 10 (five
percent average), while percent by transit to similar sites in the
portion of the area with more intensive transit (San Francisco, Oakland,
Berkeley) is on the order of 10 to 40 (20 percent average):
5% VMT x (20%-5%) = 0.75% reduction in VMT
4.1.4.2.4 Traffic Disincentives/Transit Preferential Treatment
This category includes a range of devices which improve transit
circulation and reliability while inducing auto congestion.
Exclusive Transit Lanes
Transit lanes may be applicable to freeways in Marin, Santa Clara,
and portions of Eastern Contra Costs, Southern Alameda and San Mateo
County. Where BART and Southern Pacific rail service is available, it
would be counter productive to develop parallel transit service on freeways.
Outside the rail catchment area, however, freeway lanes could be earmarked
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for transit and perhaps carpool use. Physical separation from auto lanes,
using rubber cones, etc., is desirable to provide protection. Taking a
lane away from auto traffic will contribute to congestion and act as a
further inducement to use transit.
Local Traffic Engineering Measures
Closing or metering freeway ramps, narrowing arterial roadways,
phasing traffic signals to limit auto traffic or barring cars altogether
from pedestrian oriented areas can be effective in reducing traffic through
communities and in avoiding environmental damage. Areas in which they
might be applied include Golden Gate national recreation area, downtown
San Francisco, Chinatown, Fisherman's Wharf, and downtown Sausalito. Spe-
cial bus lanes on arterial streets and transit preempt of traffic signals
can help take advantage of restrictions on the automobile. The aggregate
effect of many small measures aimed at reducing auto access is impossible
to judge on a regional basis, but such measures lessen the attraction of
the automobile. The public should be made aware of the direct linkage that
exists between increasing auto accessibility and reduced competitiveness
of transit.
To estimate the aggregate effects of exclusive transit lanes and
local traffic engineering measures, a transit/auto travel time ratio of
1.0 was assumed, the resulting increase in patronage attributable to traffic
disincentives/transit preferential treatment (Appendix C, Table C-9). An
aggregate decrease of about 0.3 VMT could be expected.
4.1.4.2.5 Free Transit Fare
As noted under options for reducing vehicular travel into San Francisco,
lowering the fare is one of the more effective means of improving the com-
petitive position of transit vis a vis the automobile, particularly for
intercity travel. A 2.0 percent VMT reduction was computed from intercity
trips not oriented into or out of San Francisco. Very little travel diver-
sion from transit to auto could be expected for local or short trips --
estimated at 0.2 percent VMT reduction (Appendix C, Table C-9).
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4.1.4.2.6 Improved Local Transit
Improvements in local transit were assumed to only affect travel
within each of the 30 BATSC superdistricts. A typical five mile trip
would take about 12 minutes by auto (25 mph), while it would take
16.5 minutes by transit (18 mph). The resulting ratio of transit/auto
travel times is about 1.40. Net VMT reduction was determined at about
0.2 percent.
4.1.4.2.7 Gas Taxing/Pricing
A recent study of gasoline price elasticity found that over a short
term (one year) a ten percent increase in gasoline price would result in
a 4.3 percent drop in gas consumption. Over the longer range (3 to 5 years)
a ten percent price increase was found to reduce gasoline sales up to
7.5 percent (4-22). These findings are only known to be valid for increases
up to ten percent. Extrapolation to a 20 percent increase (about 50 cents
per gallon) indicates an expected 8 to 12 percent reduction in gas
consumption and resulting VMT.
Pricing could be regulated through imposition of added state or
federal gasoline taxes, or state or local sales taxes. Oil companies
could induce the same effect by increasing prices.
4.1.4.2.8 Gasoline Rationing
This measure offers the potential of effecting VMT reductions over
the region as a whole. It is flexible in that the level of control can
be adjusted to achieve, either alone or in concert with other measures
the desired air quality levels and can be phased out if non-polluting
vehicles become dominant in the vehicle population. Control at the
distribution end (e.g., the regional and country level) offers simplicity
in administration, while the more positive individual rationing would
complicate the matter. One problem which affects both types of rationing
is the size of the region and vast differences in availability and
opportunities for use of alternative modes.
Concentration of the VMT rollback in the central portion of the
Bay Area, where major shifts to transit are feasible in the short
range period, might result under gross rationing because of natural market
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mechanisms leading to failure to achieve air quality standards in other
subareas of the region. However, subregional slippage effects would
probably be minimized by the fact that in no subareas would supply equal
or exceed local demand for gasoline. Where the level of gas rationing
required to achieve the air quality standards is great, severe hardships
could be anticipated, particularly in areas with low transit and carpooling
opportunities.
4.1.4.2.9 Toll/Metering in Corridors Not Entering San Francisco
Increase of tolls or introduction of absolute metering are possible
on all the existing transbay toll bridges and a new Eastbay Hills
(Berkeley Hills) screen line of toll/metering stations. Imposition of
the control on these screen lines would spread its effect over a wider
portion of the region and over a greater segment of the traveler
population than the San Francisco cordon. But, for a much higher per-
centage of the travelers passing through these extended control screens
there is little opportunity to use transit or carpooling for their
trip. Stations which could be expected to produce principal shifts
to transit would be on State Route 24 (near the Caldecott Tunnel) and
on Interstate 580 (at Dublin Canyon). While the other stations would
generally have low productivity in inducing mode shifts, they would
(in the case of tolls) provide a transit revenue source.
4.1.4.2.10 Parking Taxes
A variety of parking taxes could conceivably be instituted.
Parking tax options considered and some likely impacts from them for the
Bay Area include:
t A uniform tax on all parking spaces in the urbanized
area, with BART parking and parcels with less than
10 units exempt. The suburban shopping centers,
employers and parking lot operators would be hit the
hardest.
A tax inversely proportional to the fee charged the
user, e.g., parking lot operators and employers who
charge would reduce their tax bite. Retail outlets,
colleges, and employers in suburban areas would be
hit most by this tax. Again, BART station parking
lots exempt to encourage transit use.
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t A tax on spaces in proportion to the number of spaces per
employee, e.g., generous parking means high tax. Suburban
shopping centers and parking lot oeprators most severly
hit. This measure appears difficult to administer (i.e.,
determining employee/parking ratio).
A tax on spaces inversely proportion the local transit
tax effort, e.g., low property tax support for transit
means high parking tax.
A commuter tax levied on any off-street parking use over
four hour duration. This tax appears applicable to down-
town San Francisco and Oakland only. Parkers in smaller
urban centers would find it too easy to move their car
at noon or during coffee break.
In general, parking tax schemes can be viewed as disincentives for
auto use and/or sources of transit operating revenue. Shopping centers,
employers, etc., may absorb the tax, thus reducing its effectiveness.
The tax appears to be a good transit revenue source; the fourth measure
is perhaps most egalitarian in that regard.
4.1.4.2.11 Vehicle Registration Surcharge
This control measure involves a surcharge on the "in lieu" portion
of motor vehicle registration fees (the portion of the fee which is
essentially a tax based on the value of the car). Surcharge rates
would be graduated based on emission class of the vehicle (i.e., lower
for low-emission vehicles) and the local tax effort (by county) in
support of public transportation. In other words, a higher local
transit support effort would lead to lower surcharge rates. The funds
so generated could be utilized to support the MTC's regional transit
programs.
This measure is not seen as one which would cause persons to give
up second and third family cars, which would require very high surcharge
rates and strike primarily at lower income groups. The concept is one
of providing an incentive for voluntary retrofits of older vehicles
and also to provide a new source ,of funding for public transit in areas
which have not devoted a significant tax effort to this enterprise.
Thus, the proposal has potential immediate and long term positive
effects and acts most directly in heavily auto-oriented areas. It is
also relatively uncomplicated to administer as it utilizes the
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existing mechanisms of the Department of Motor Vehicles.
4.1.4.2.12 Carpools
Table 4-10 indicates regional trip making and auto occupancy by trip
purpose. The table shows that work trips, the prime target for carpool
activity, have lowest car occupancy, less than 1.2 persons per vehicle.
Table 4-10. Regional Trip Making and Auto Occupancy by Trip Purpose
Trip Purpose
Work
Personal business
Social
Recreational
Shopping
Convenience
Comparison
School
Other home based
Non-home based
Average Weekday
No. of Trips Percent Average Car
(000) of Trips Occupancy
2,626
1,248
795
535
1,223
409
1,418
1,095
2,447
22.2
19.6
6.7
4.5
10.3
3.5
12.2
9.3
20.7
1.18
1.41
1.62
1.46
1.28
1.18
2.76
1.81
1.44
Source: BATSC, 1965
Essential elements in developing work commute car pool activity
appear to be:
A "critical mass" concentration of employment activity
Public information
Carpool formation matching assistance on a continuing
basis
Incentives (time, cost, convenience)
In the Bay Area, both incentives and matching services have been
provided for the Bay Bridge corridor. Questionnaires were distributed
to 25,000 carpool commuters (6 to 9 A.M.) with the intent of matching
individuals having similar origin-destination and trip time characteristics
thereby providing carpool formation services. However, only some 1000
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forms were returned and only a very limited number of carpools were
actually formed. This failure appears to indicate both an inherent
resistance to carpooling and the lack of special incentives at that
time. In late 1971, three reserved toll booths with approach and egress
lanes were provided for carpools (3 or more per car) at the Bay Bridge
approach. Initially, tolls were eliminated for carpools, subsequently
a $1.00 charge per month were imposed (normal auto toll is $.50 per
westbound crossing). The reserved lanes afford users a substantial
time saving (up to about 5 minutes) in the toll plaza area. Despite
these incentives, peak period carpools increased to only about 2000
(from an existing 1000) out of some 23,000 peak period crossings. More-
over, there is some suspicion that numbers of carpool^occupants were
diverted not from their own cars but from transit.
In the attitude survey undertaken in conjunction with this control
strategy development program (see Appendix G), some 16 percent of the
respondents indicated significant interest in carpooling and some potential
for actually getting into one. Over 70 percent favored exclusive bus and
carpool lanes on freeways and expressways. Thus, more potential for car-
pooling may exist than demonstrated to date in the Bay Bridge experiments.
However, because of the uncertain effectiveness in inducing carpooling,
this is not recommended as a primary strategy. To be sure, auto restric-
tive controls proposed in other sections of this report will result in
significant carpool formation and all possible incentive measures to
increase carpooling are encouraged.
4.1.4.2.13 Traffic Flow Improvements
Measures to achieve emission reductions through improved traffic flow
fall in two categories: construction of new major traffic facilities
(e.g., freeways, expressways, and major arterial linkages) and operational
improvements to existing streets and highways. The emission reductions
are brought about by increases in vehicle speeds, reduced idling, and
a general shortening of trip times.
Major facility construction normally enables significant increases in
vehicle travel speed in the corridors affected but is alleged to activate
latent travel demand. In the long run this may reinforce auto dependence
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and increases vehicle miles traveled. Over the short range time frame
of primary concern in this study (to 1977) the air quality impacts of
new traffic facilities can be assumed positive. However, over this
period only a minimal amount of new major facility mileage will come
into use. Though its impacts on air quality in that period will be
positive, its contribution in terms of regional air quality is too small
to quantify.
Operational improvements to existing streets and highways cover a
broad range of programs. These include freeway improvements such as
ramp metering, lane additions, and removal of bottlenecks; and surface
street improvements such as areawide signal system integration, inter-
section channelizations, minor widenings of streets and intersection
approaches, institution of one-way street systems and the like. Because
they do not produce dramatic shifts in accessibility, operational im-
provements generally do not lead to activation of latent travel demand
and their impact on emissions and air quality over the study period
is assessed as positive.
Extensive traffic operational improvements programs are planned
or ongoing in the Bay Area. However, operational and flow improvements
do not have a high payoff in terms of vehicle emission reductions for
several reasons:
Levels of traffic service and average travel speed in
the Bay Area are already high. The net result of.
flow improvement programs is likely to be preservation
of the existing level of service under higher future
traffic loads rather than an increase in average travel
speed.
Reductions in emissions with increases in travel speed
become quite marginal at speeds above 20 mph, particu-
larly toward 1977 as post-1975 model vehicles become
a greater and greater percentage of the vehicle fleet
(4-23). Current average travel speed is well above
20 mph and the percentage of operations in the high
leverage area (below 20 mph) which could actually be
affected by operational improvements will produce
emission reductions too small to quantify.
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Major bottlenecks where flow improvements could potentially
result in emission reductions meaningful in terms of regional
air quality are identifiable. However, such flow improve-
ment levels (as in the Bay Bridge corridor, for example)
are achievable only through construction of major new
facilities, not operational improvements. Such new facility
construction will not occur in the period of concern.
In summary, flow improvement measures are seen as positive in terms
of effect on air quality but their specific contribution to areawide
emission reduction in the Bay Region is small and difficult to quantify.
Where potential improvement projects in areas of operation in the high
leverage speed range below 20 mph can be identified, they are encouraged.
4.1.4.2.14 Work Schedule Changes
Changes in work schedule have been proposed as a control measure
in some cities as they tend to produce marginal flow improvements by
reducing commute period traffic congestion and reducing total work
commute travel. Two types of schedule changes have^been identified, e.g.,
staggered work hours and the four-day week.
Potential for air quality improvement in the Bay Area as a result
of staggered work hours appears minimal. In the approach corridors to
downtown San Francisco, where greatest impact of such work staggering
might be expected, peak period congestion already extends over more than
an hour both morning and afternoon. This indicates the extent to which
natural and capacity enforced staggering already exists and the futility
of further staggering efforts.
In areas of dispersed employment activity staggering is less meaning-
ful. Dispersed employment location and unfocused trip patterns in
themselves result in a spread of traffic over the street and highway
system. In such areas, work staggering over and above that which
naturally exists raises the spectre of resonant waves of congestion on
the system.
Achievement of meaningful results through work staggering appears
to require spread of starting and quitting times over more than two hour
periods. This seems difficult because of constraints both of human temporal
activity patterns which have become ingrained and the requirement in many
business activities for maximal overlap of working hours with other
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local work activities and with business hours in the eastern time zones.
The air quality problem in this region results from excessive
areawide hydrocarbon emissions on an all day basis. Such a problem
responds most directly to decreases in total daily areawide VMT.
Staggered work hours do not decrease total daily VMT but simply spread
the time of VMT generation. Such a strategy is most applicable when the
problem is a short duration, localized concentration of pollutant,
particularly carbon monoxide, which results from temporal concentration
of traffic flow. Staggered work hours also tend to reduce the potential
for car pooling, a measure which does relate well to a hydrocarbon prob-
lem as it tends to directly reduce VMT. For these reasons, staggered
work hours are not identified as a high-payoff pollution control
measure for the Bay Area.
The four-day week would reduce VMT generated in work commute
travel. Like staggered work hours, this would be a useful measure if
the problem were a localized, temporal problem in employment con-
centration areas. However, indications are the increased recreational
and other non-work travel will fully replace if not exceed the reductions
in VMT resulting from decreased work commuting.
Table 4-11, which compares average weekday and average weekend-day
trip activity supports this contention.
Table 4-11. Average Weekday Trips Compared with Average
Weekend Day Trips, 1965
Trip Purpose
Home-based
Work
Personal Business
Social
Recreational
Shopping
Convenience
Comparison
School
Other home-based
Non-home-based
Total
No. of
Weekday
Trips
(000)
2,626
1,248
795
535
1,223
409
1,448
1,095
2,447
11,826
Percent
of
Trips
22.2
10.6
6.7
4.5
10.3
3.5
12.2
9.3
20.7
100.0
No. of
Weekend
Trips
(000)
856
1 ,935
1,500
994
1,744
589
52
1,438
2.268
11,376
Percent
of
Trips
7.5
17.0
13.2
8.7
15.4
5.2
0.5
12.6
19.9
100.0
Source: BATSC 1965 Origin-Destination Survey.
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(This is particularly true if, as seems most likely, the extra days off
are split on Mondays and Fridays creating three-day weekends). Thus,
this measure does not respond well to the region's areawide hydrocarbon
emission problem. Because of this, as well as problems of institutional
feasibility, the four-day week is not recommended as a control measure.
If, in combination with or independent of the four-day week, 20 percent
of the vehicle fleet could be restrained from driving on any given day,
an effective reduction in VMT could be achieved.
4.1.4.2.15 Reducing Vehicle Usage
The most direct way to reduce emissions from motor vehicles is to
reduce their use. The effectiveness of measures which reduce VMT
are potentially limited only by the amount of travel which is auto
captive and essential. This general goal can be approched by three
types of measures: reduce trip requirements, provide transportation
alternatives, and establish vehicle restraints. The use of vehicles
cannot be significantly restrained without providing some alternative
means of transportation. A corollary appears to be that significant
mass transportation ridership increases do not occur without some form
of natural or artificial vehicle restraint (without order of magnitude
service improvements).
4.1.4.2.16 Reducing Trip Requirements
An essential part of air pollution episode procedures, this
measure is implemented when certain air pollution alert stages are
reached (e.g., emergency closing of offices, schools, etc.). As a
general measure, there are no present means available to effectively
reduce trip requirements. Trip generation is built into life styles
and land use patterns; therefore, it is not possible to dramatically
alter the number or types of trips in our time period of interest.
Positive land use policies could channel future development into con-
centrated nodes each containing a full range of urban activities with
walking the primary linkage. Such a land use program would not likely
have a substantial impact for one or two decades or perhaps longer.
As described in an earlier section, a four-day work week would
reduce work trip requirements, but would probably induce increased
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recreational trips and trips for other purposes. Thus, another possible
approach to reducing trip requirements is a substitution of communications
for travel. Communications technology has already replaced the need for
travel in certain occupations. Over 13 million shares are traded on the
New York Exchange daily, predominately via telephone and telecommunications,
without direct personal contact. Another parallel phenomena is the degree
to which computerization is changing the entire business world. Computer
installations at widely scattered points are now linked into extensive
computer utility networks. Information may be input in San Jose, processed
in Palo Alto, and transmitted for printing in San Francisco. No travel
or deliveries are involved -- all through electronics technology.
These kinds of operations are spreading rapidly and may be
expected to continue. The important question is whether substitution
can lead to actual decreases in travel. Recent experience would seem
to indicate to the contrary, considering the substantial increases in
urban travel over the past two decades, even as television, space
satellites, computer technology and other advances in telecommunications
come into being. In any event, it is certain personal travel require-
ments will not diminish in the short time period this study covers.
4.1.4.2.17 Network of Bicycle Paths
BATSC data indicates that about one-quarter of Bay Area VMT is
generated by local trips (intradistrict or trips less than 8 to 10 miles
in length). Bicycle usage would be ideally suited for a large portion
of such travel.. Most of the Bay Area has relatively level topography
and climate is mild most of the year. Greater use of bicycles could be
encouraged through designation and protection of bicycle lanes and
incorporating bike/pedestrian paths in new developments. A carefully
laid out bicycle grid system with 3 to 4 blocks between bike paths is
envisioned as an inducement to use bicycles for a variety of purposes
besides recreation.
Imposition of restraints on auto usage, particularly measures like
gas pricing and rationing, could be expected to encourage bicycle use.
The greatest increase in bicycle ridership would undoubtedly occur for
children in getting to school, recreation, etc. as parents pre-empt the
car for more essential functions.
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4.1.4.3 Results of VMT Reduction Analysis
Quantitative analysis found that control strategies directed toward
VMT reduction would be no more than about 15 percent without imposition
of gas pricing or rationing measures (see Table 4-12). The most effective
measure would be controls over traffic toward major generators such as
the San Francisco CBD and major employers in outlying areas. Work travel
over longer distances encountering traffic congestion, toll and parking
costs are the most subject to diversion from auto to transit. Short
local trips are most difficult to divert to transit. In the short time-
frame of the next 2 to 4 years, walking, bicycling or local transit will
only become attractive options to the automobile under more stringent
and direct controls such as gasoline pricing or rationing.
The most desirable strategy would be one which offers incentives
for transit use or carpooling commensurate with restraints imposed on
auto use. Reduced transit fare coupled with increased bridge tolls, for
example, should be publicly more acceptable than imposing a constraint
without offering an attractive option. Major suburban employers may wish
to financially underwrite subscription bus service with parking fees
imposed on employees who drive. The recommended first line of attack
would be reliance on pricing mechanisms which make transit more attractive
while making driving less advantageous.
It is recommended that restrictions on auto flow and parking be
viewed primarily as back up measures to pricing mechanisms and improved
transit. As increased toll/reduced fare begins to take effect, exclusive
bus lanes, bus and carpool lanes, or other traffic constraints could be
imposed to keep congestion at current levels and insure maximum effective-
ness of the pricing mechanism. Similarly, constraints on auto parking
could be imposed, e.g., prohibition of additional off-street spaces, to
make certain parking costs stay at or above their current levels.
New major transit improvements, BART in particular, will likely
bring temporary reductions in traffic congestion along freeways parallel
to BART and a tendency for parking lot operators to lower parking rates
to attract greater usage. Some evidence of reduced congestion has been
observed on approaches to the Caldecott Tunnel, and several parking lot
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Table 4-12. Summary of Impacts for VMT Reduction Strategies
Approximate Percent
Strategy Description VMT Reduction
1. Intercept autos entering San Francisco
o 50 cent added toll
- commute traffic only 0.2
- 24 hour basis 0.5
o $2 added toll
- commute traffic only 0.6
- 24 hour basis 1.4
o $10 added toll
- commute traffic only 3.0
- 24 hour basis 6.8
o Physical constraints (bus and carpool lanes)
- half lanes reserved 3.0
o Reduce transit fares
- commute traffic only 2.0
- 24 hour basis 4.5
o Parking reductions
- 50 percent CBD reduction 4.0
2. Suburban employer parking restrictions/
subscription bus and carpooling
o 50 percent reduction in auto use, 2.5
firms 1000+ employees
o 75 percent reduction in auto use, 3.8
firms 1000+ employees
3. Moratoriums on development
o Outside transit service area 0.4
o Major generators outside established centers 0.7
4. Traffic disincentives/transit preferential treatment
e Excluding entrance to San Francisco 0.2
5. Free transit fare
e Local Service 0.2
o Intercity, excluding entering San Francisco 2.0
6. Improved local transit 0.7
7. Gas taxing/pricing
o 20 percent price increase 8-12
8. Gas rationing
e 80 percent current level 13-17
Maximum attainable without gas pricing or rationing ~ 15
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operators in the Oakland CBD have lowered rates, both presumably as a
result of BART opening to Oakland. Reduced freeway traffic and reduced
parking demand is likely to be temporary only, unless constraints are
applied to keep driving costs at their present level. To keep driving
impedance high, constraints should be employed concurrently with BART
opening, including reservation of bus and carpool lanes on freeways and
arterials parallel to BART (e.g., Bay Bridge, U.S. 101, 1280, Caldecott
Tunnel, Market Street in San Francisco, one-way street system from freeway
off-ramps) and selected metering, narrowing or closure of freeway off-ramps
(e.g., 1-280 off-ramp at San Jose Avenue). Restrictions that increase
congestion above present levels are likely to be perceived as restraint
without regress.
4.1.4.4 An Alternative Approach to VMT Reduction
The analysis presented in the study thus far has centered on short
term control measures which could conceivably be implemented within a
1975 to 1977 timeframe. It has been further noted that many of the short
term transportation system controls will run counter to existing1 long-
range goals within the region. In reality, many of the institutional and
political constraints will dictate the shape and form of transportation
services within the region. Properly guided, many of the involved agencies
can direct planning to minimize adverse environmental impacts, such as air
pollution. Most if not all of the transportation groups in the Bay Area
do explicitly consider the air pollution consequences of their activities.
The question then becomes to what degree is the majority of current trans-
portation and land use planning compatible with the envisioned constraints
needed to achieve the desired air quality?
It appears conceivable and probable that large VMT reductions could
be achieved in the long run and with a minimal of socio-economic impacts,
through better land use and transportation planning than with many of the
control measures considered. Serious questions are raised by the appropri-
ateness of certain controls in light of current land use and transportation
planning programs both at the regional level and at the detailed, almost
site planning level. Regionally, the status of MTC's transportation and
land use modeling efforts for the Bay Area serves as a case-in-point. At
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the local level, an example is taken of developing land use and transpor-
tation in the Livermore-Amador Valley, one of the more critical pollution
sectors of the region.
Regional Land Use and Transportation Modeling
MTC is currently updating the transportation modeling undertaken by
BATSC 5 to 8 years ago. Since that time, the rate of population growth has
slowed with public sentiment swinging away from more highway construction
and toward transit improvements (e.g., SB325 funds, proposals for diverting
highway trust funds for transit). In other areas, higher building costs
are tending to produce greater densities in new residential developments,
and concern for the environment has led to building moratoriums, increased
open space acquisitions, and tightened land development controls (e.g.,
new coastal commissions, legislation requiring zoning to conform with the
. general plan, and environmental impact reports). Citizens opposing unlimited,
sprawling development have become increasingly effective in controlling the
character of new development, a force which for the first time permits the
region to realistically consider shaping urban development through concerted
transportation improvement and land development controls. These groups must
also be considered in the development of short-term transportation controls.
MTC is scheduled to complete, by June 30, 1973, their land use and
transportation model development and calibration. Land use allocations in
the model will be sensitive to travel time, but not costs such as parking
and tolls. By August 15, 1973, MTC is projected to have coded nine or ten
transit networks for 1980 and 1990. Included in the work will be two or
three alternative levels of development or land-use plans (e.g., northern
tilt, southern tilt). It is recommended that MTC's land use/transportation
model be used when appropriate to assess the impact of several alternative
control measures. For short term measures, it should be relatively easy
to assess the effects of constrictions on bridges, exclusive bus lanes on
freeways, and improved transit. Similarly, the analysis of alternative land
use/transportation configurations on regional VMT can be readily accomplished.
Important in the comparative analysis would be how VMT could be minimized
regionwide with as few controls and restrictions as possible and yet re-
main consistent with regional planning goals. A plan is envisioned in
-143-
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which long range VMT control strategies become an integral part of regional
transportation/land-use planning.
Local Planning Considerajjons^_J.n/eriiiore-Aiiiador Valley Examole
The Livermore-Amador Valley, 40 miles east of San Francisco, is faced
with the prospects of unprecedented growth in the presence of one of the
Bay Area's worst smog conditions. Figures 4-12 and 4-13 illustrate the levels
of oxidants which have been experienced recently in the area. It can-
readily be seen from the data that oxidant levels three to four times the
standard are not uncommon. The initial 75-mile BART system has been com-
pleted to a point within 10 miles of the Valley, and plans are nearing
completion for an 8-1ane interstate highway linking the Valley with the
heart of the region. Prospects appear good that the Valley, which is presently
on the outskirts of the Bay Area, will soon be thrust into the mainstream of
development. Meanwhile, frequent temperature inversion locked in by a ring
of hills and pollution fed through Dublin Canyon from the west combine to
form one of, if not the worst, potential air pollution conditions in the
Bay Area. In view of the geographical and meteorological conditions which
prevail and contribute to the air pollution problem, it is recommended that
long-term measures to maintain acceptable air quality be considered and
evaluated.
The automobile dominates development patterns in the Valley. The
pattern of dispersed development and an extensive street and highway
system make it impractical for a bus system to accomplish a reversal in
increased automobile usage. However, a number of reasons traffic con-
gestion; air pollution; excess land consumed by highways, streets, and
parking lots; loss of open space and environmental amenities--may make it
desirable to consider development alternatives which feature less extensive
use of the automobile in the Valley. Such alternatives will not be easy
to achieve, but the promise of a more livable future should justify their
thorough consideration.
A BART extension would have a sizable impact on commuter automobile
usage. Rapid transit can transport persons quicker and less expensively
than they can usually drive and park, thereby encouraging commuters to
choose transit over the automobile. However, rapid transit extension will
-144-
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in
i
.30,-
.25
.20
a.
a.
a
x
o
.15
.10
.05
MONTHLY MAXIMUM
HOURLY AVERAGE
/ AVERAGE OF DAILY HOURLY
' MAXIMA (BY MONTH)
-I I h-
1970
1971
YEAR
1972
SOURCE: STATE OF CALIFORNIA, THE RESOURCES AGENCY, AIR RESOURCES BOARD,
CALIFORNIA AIR QUALITY DATA. 1970-72
Figure 4-12. Air Quality Measurements in Liver-more (Monitored at Rincon and Pine - 1970-71)
-------
.30,-
Q.
O.
a
o
.25
.20
.15
.10
.05
MONTHLY MAXIMUM HOURLY AVERAGE
HOURLY AVERAGE
AVERAGE OF DAILY HOURLY
MAXIMA (BY MONTH)
SOURCE:
J
to1
JAN'
_ i^
YEAR
STATE OF CALIFORNIA, THE RESOURCES AGENCY,
CALIFORNIA AIR QUALITY DATA, 1970-1972.
SEPT
AIR RESOURCES
BOARD
* 1
, I
"!
»
Figure 4-13. Air Quality Measurements in Livermore (Monitored at Railroad Street - 1970-72)
-------
accentuate growth pressures in the Valley and growth effects must be
weighed against potential benefits.
Although BART or other means of high speed public transportation can
have substantial impact on automobile usage along a corridor, rapid transit
will have no effect on the large number of short automobile trips made
within the community. BART stations are typically located up to three miles
distance from some portions of the communities they serve, making it un-
likely that many commuters will choose to walk. Frequent local feeder bus
service to rapid transit stations would offer the commuter the opportunity
to make his entire trip by transit, but unless BART parking fees or other
auto constraints are introduced, high auto ownership and auto convenience
make diversion of the feeder trip to transit an up hill proposition.
Development of a system of bicycle paths linking residential areas
to major community activity centers and transit stations offers another
alternative to automobile usage. To attract people to use of bicycles,
attention should be given to providing exclusive bicycle paths through the
community particularly along major streets. Safe, attractive bikeways
could make inroads on automobile usage for short trips such as school
trips, recreation trips and perhaps even short work trips.
Careful attention should be paid to design of efficient, safe and
attractive pedestrian walkways. Placement of pedestrian walkways back
from major streets and provision of landscaping should make walking more
pleasant. An inviting pedestrian circulation system should be able to
attract persons making short trips.
Structuring Urban Development
Land development and transportation are closely interrelated; they
may even be viewed as opposite sides of the same coin. The complement of
reduced vehicle travel is an urban development pattern which facilitates
use of transit, bicycling, or walking. Such an environment requires years
of concentrated, carefully conceived planning, promotion, and control over
new development (zoning, subdivision regulation and other legal tools) as
well as public investment in improvements to encourage transit usage,
bicycling and walking.
-147-
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Structuring of urban development in new towns, even those without
rapid transit, has lead to reduced vehicle tripmaking, reduced street and
highway mileage, and increased acreage and usability of open space. Resi-
dential development is frequently clustered along open spaces with pathways
linking homes to schools, playgrounds and shopping opportunities. Pedes-
trian and bicycle travel patterns are made more efficient, and the quality
of life is improved.
An extension of BART to the Valley would present the community potential
for shaping an environment in which transit can compete with the automobile
on a local as well as an interurban corridor basis. The challenge is to
shape a development pattern which allows the benefits of transit usage
reduced air pollution, land consumption, and transportation coststo spread
from transit stations out into the community. Corridors of higher-density
residential development containing major traffic generators such as hospitals,
schools, and shopping centers should be consciously developed in a pattern
radiating from rapid transit terminals. These "transit corridors" can be
saturated with bus service (such as frequent shuttle service) so that land
owners and developers can build with the transit user in mind and those who
want to orient themselves to transit usage can depend on convenient bus
service (see Figure 4-14).
As an example, land within a half-mile band along a designated transit
corridor can be reserved through planning and zoning for apartments or town-
houses, clustered single-family homes, employment centers, or major public
facilities. Careful attention should be paid to efficient, safe and pleasant
pedestrian circulation from activity centers to bus stops, avoiding a bar-
rier of walls, parking lots, or other obstacles to transit usage and pe-
destrian and bicycle circulation.
A rather detailed level of planning and coordination involving site
planning by both developer and the city -- will be required to focus develop-
ment along transit corridors and encourage use of other modes of transpor-
tation besides the automobile.
Current land use plans for Valley communities call for continuation of
low-density development and auto orientation 20 years into the future.
-148-
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10
i
1 ;-"<; M '
-,-. :-,-.-. '. | I-',.,-'- -r'j -: -j, "'.- -.,. - -
""-5-V' : I \d ':-:: '-rr.i'-'--'.^ \ d Hx r [ fr;;j c:-^;tr Kor-ss / p r _,.'voV-'':
" "
TW-:.:
n
n
a
;'^«rn"'^-r ^ prfttiwr /£
i pp" 4> n^Afesiis^' (*
~1 1 Apartments
!-~f:-2? -->^:-;>-'
.-"'"- > -L~7- '
Shops
School
_~ Li n
Errplcyr
Bus Stop
Transit Route
To Rcpici Trer.iit Elsii
Figure_4-14. Urban Development Structure with "Transit Corridors"
-------
If such planning is allowed to become reality, much of the potential offered
by a possible BART extension to the Valley will be permanently lost.
Review of existing land use plans and zoning is paramount, therefore,
if transit development opportunities are not to be lost to low-density sprawl.
Higher land values and pressures for increased density in the Valley give
impetus to the desirability of structuring apartment and townhouse develop-
ment into a pattern which is in the long-range interests of the community.
Such structuring offers the possibility for reserving large open spaces in
tradeoff for higher density along selected corridors, thus avoiding over-
crowding and retaining a part of the natural environment for future generations.
4.2 THE CALIFORNIA ARB IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
The state of California ARB Implementation Plan for achieving and
maintaining the NAAQS was submitted to the EPA in February 1972. The plan
consists of measures to control emissions from both mobile and stationary
sources. The ARB analysis shows that enforcement of these measures will
result in the attainment of Federal Air Quality Standards in the San
Francisco Bay Area Air Basin by 1977. The following sections provide a
review of the California plan for the San Francisco Basin. Section 4.2.1
is a discussion of the ARB baseline emissions inventory, and Section 4.2.2
.provides an examination of the ARB control strategy.
4.2.1 Baseline Emissions Inventory
4.2.1.1 Results
The base year for the San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin plan was chosen
to be 1970. During this year the maximum hourly oxidant recorded was
0.30 ppm; and the maximum 8 hour CO average was 13 ppm. Conforming to the
conventional proportional rollback method, the ARB determined that source
emissions of RHC emissions must be reduced by 73 percent, and CO emissions
by 31 percent to attain air quality standards in the Basin.
The baseline emission inventory was quantified individually for each
county in the Basin. The total Basin inventory was then used in the
development of a Basin-wide control strategy. The relative air contamina-
tion generated by the major sources is illustrated in Figure 4-15. The
absolute values of the various source pollutant emissions are shown in
Table 4-13.
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HIGHLY REACTIVE ORGANIC GASES
862 TPD
MOTOR VEHICLES
NITROGEN OXIDES
727 TPD
MOTOR VEHICLES
OTHER
COMBUSTION OF FUELS
OTHER
PETROLEUM
ORGANIC SOLVENT
CARBON MONOXIDE
54AQ TPD
MOTOR
VEHICLES
OTHER
Source: California Air Resources Board (1)
Figure 4-15.
Percentage of Emissions from Major Sources in San Francisco
Bay Area Air Basin, 1970
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Table 4-13. San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin's Estimated Average Emissions
of Contaminants into the Atmosphere, 1970 (Tons Per Day)
Emission Source
Petroleum
Organic solvent users
Organic Gases
Reactivity N0x
High Total
57.7 175 19.8
70.7 354 .2
CO
16.9
Chemical, metallurgical,
mineral 35.1 2.0 5.9
Incineration
Combustion of fuels
Lumber industry
Agriculture
Motor vehicles
Aircraft
Ships and railroads
TOTAL
6.2
9.1
703
14.8
862
49.6
3.6
.3
86.7
984
29.5
5.7
1720
.6
153
532
8.7
10.7
121:
no
1.8
3.1
211
5010
64.8
19.0
5440
Source: California Air Resources Board
4.2.1.2 Methodology
Base year (1970) air contaminants generated by motor vehicles were
estimated in 1970 by the ARB on the basis of total regional gas consumption
and vehicle emission factors (emissions per gallon). The estimated quan-
tity of each pollutant species emitted from vehicles of various types and
model years was determined by calculating the product of the fraction of
regional gas consumption attributable to the subject vehicle type and the
appropriate emission rate in grams per gallon.
Projections of motor vehicle emissions in future years were estimated
utilizing procedures outlined in the "Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory
1970-1980" (4-24). The bases for the estimates are motor vehicle popula-
tion projections vehicle model distribution, vehicle mileage, and emission
-152-
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rates as determined by the 7-mode test procedure. The estimated quantity
of each contaminant emitted from vehicles of various types and models is
the product of the number of vehicles, the corresponding average annual
mileage, and the appropriate emission rate in grams per mile.
The baseline inventory for stationary sources in the California ARB
Implementation Plan derives fundamentally from the 1970 California
Inventory (4-24). This 1970 inventory, in turn, is based on joint efforts
of the ARB and the local APCD's in estimating stationary source emissions.
For each stationary source category, these emissions are calculated by
multiplying source activity levels by appropriate emission factors. The
activity levels are basically estimates of throughput (e.g., in petroleum
marketing) production (e.g., of a certain industry), sales (e.g., of organic
solvent), fuel consumption (e.g., in the residential-commercial sector),
and tonnage of wastes burned (e.g., in agriculture). These estimates are
obtained partially by survey but more often by contacting appropriate
agencies (e.g., Western Oil and Gas Association, U.S. Bureau of Mines,
agricultural associations, University Service Departments, etc.). The
emission factors are taken from the EPA's "Air Pollution Emission Factors,
Preliminary Edition," April 1971, or are as developed by local APCD's.
Hydrocarbon reactivity factors in the ARB inventory are all based on Los
Angeles County, APCD assumptions. Projection of the 1970 ARB stationary
source inventory are made through 1975, 1977, and 1980 according to the
assumptions that each source expands in proportion to population growth.
The method used by the CARB to calculate emission due to aircraft is
essentially that recommended by EPA in AP - 42: Compilation of Air Pollu-
tant Emission Factors (4-25). The number of LTO cycles in each are corre-
lated with the particular classes of aircraft, and the appropriate emission
factor recommended by EPA was used, according to the following formula:
Aircraft _ Emission Number of engines Number of
emissions " factor per aircraft LTO cycles
RHC's were calculated as 50 percent of total hydrocarbon emissions for
both jet-driven and piston-driven aircraft.
-153-
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en
-(=.
i
Table 4-14. Percentage Growth in Population and Motor Vehicles
for Various California Regions (1960 to 1980)
Region
San Francisco
Sacramento
Fresno
Kern
San Joaquin
% Population
Growth
28.39
29.62
14.35
14.61
19.98
1960 - 1972
% Motor Vehicle
Growth
Actual Calculated 3
64.11
67.01
41.30
39.93
43.03
61.91
65.45
38.10
40.92
42.40
1972 - 1980 (Projected)
% Population Growth
Growth TRW
16.14 21.87
16.54 45.39
7.75 11.26
8.52 17.66
12.61 21.73
-------
4.2.1.3 Limitations of the Analysis
The ARB quantification of motor vehicle emissions is confronted with
the analytical difficulties that are inherent to the state of the art
(discussed in Section 3.2.2). In addition, the ARB procedure contains
other questionable limiting assumptions. For example, the emission rates
applied in the analysis were based on the State 7-mode test cycle. This
test, and the sampling procedure used to establish the emission rates,
have been updated to the current federal test procedures which are acknowl-
edged to yield more representative vehicle emission rates. Another
questionable approach utilized in the ARB inventory determination involves
the projection of vehicle populations by the assumption their growth is
in direct proportion to population increase. Table 4-14 provides histori-
cal growth data for the various study areas of the critical California
air basins and demonstrates the discrepancy between growth trends for popu-
lation and total regional vehicle registrations. Also included in the
table are the TRW growth projections, based on the multiple linear regres-
sion procedure (Appendix D), for motor vehicle registrations in the various
California air basin study regions. Another questionable assumption made
by the ARB is that total regional VMT may be determined from regional
annual vehicle mileage and vehicle population for the region-registered
vehicles. Implicit in the assumption is the existence of a contained
community with all vehicle travel performed within its boundaries. The
limitation of this assumption is most often evident in small regions where
much through travel is prevalent.
Another ARB procedure subject to potential unreliability centers
around the conflicting use of two different methods in calculating motor
vehicle emission inventories, namely: the base year emissions which are
based on gas consumption figures, and the projected vehicle emissions
which are based on vehicle mileage distributions. The inconsistence con-
tained in this approach causes some difficulty in drawing valid compari-
sons between the base year emission inventory and the projected emission
inventories.
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The least reliable aspect of the ARB motor vehicle emission inventory
concerns hydrocarbon reactivity assumptions. The ranking of hydrocarbon
reactivity is a controversial issue. For example, the ARB utilizes a
reactivity scale which designates diesel exhaust non-reactive, while the
EPA considers this exhaust 99 percent reactive. Evaporated gasoline, con-
sidered 50 percent reactive by the ARB, is 93 percent reactive according
to the EPA. Since the conventional oxidant rollback procedure centers on
the reduction of the reactive element of the hydrocarbon inventory, the
uncertainty surrounding the reactivity scale is probably the most signifi-
cant limitation mitigating the calculation of a meaningful air contaminant
inventory.
The most obvious distinction between the ARB relative baseline emis-
sions profile and that developed by TRW is the level of air pollution
arising from motor vehicle operations in the base year. The ARB selected
1970 as its base year, corresponding to a lower oxidant measurement for
its rollback determination. The ARB determined 83 percent of all reactive
organic gases were generated by motor vehicles while TRW placed the figure
at 64 percent. The combination of earlier base year and higher relative
motor vehicle emissions provide the ARB with a substantial difference in
baseline control leverage via motor vehicle controls.
The baseline stationary source inventory of the California ARB
Implementation Plan is derived from the 1970 California ARB inventory
(4-24). It therefore contains all of the limitations inherent in the
1970 inventory. These include errors in estimating source usage and
source emission factors. Such errors might be considerable, but most of
these figures (especially the source usage figures obtained from the
appropriate responsible agencies), should be fairly reliable. The only
very unreliable parameters in the 1970 inventory are hydrocarbon reactivi-
ties. As discussed in more detail in Section 3.2.1, hydrocarbon reactivity
assumptions are much in dispute, and values can change from 0 percent to
99 percent in comparing different reactivity scales. The 1970 ARB inven-
tory uses Los Angeles APCD reactivity assumptions which differ considerably
from recent EPA values by Altshuller.
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The projection of the 1970 Inventory to 1975, 1977, and 1980 may
also contain considerable error for certain sources. The ARB has assumed
that each type of emission will grow as population. However, certain
sectors are expanding much more rapidly than population while other sectors
are expanding slower or are contracting. Projection assumptions that are
more oriented toward growth in specific industries and/or sectors would be
much more realistic.
It is believed (4-26) that a significant degree of error exists in the
ARB estimates for aircraft emissions because of miscalculation. As a
result, the ARB is currently revising the aircraft emission inventory to
correct these errors. New and more complete data on aircraft operations,
including those at the numerous general aviation airports and at military
air bases, should be Included in this revision, and recent EPA revisions
to emission factors published in Reference 4-25 should be utilized. The
use of the reactivity factor should also be reconsidered because of the
EPA recommendation of 90 percent for both jet-driven and piston-driven
aircraft.
4.2.1.4 Summary
It 1s evident there are several aspects of the ARB inventory based on
questionable information or procedures. Because of these limitations,
TRW has developed a separate emission inventory based on procedures which
are acceptable to the EPA. Because of the numerous differences in procedures
and base information utilized in the two approaches (TRW and ARB), the
utility of a lengthy and detailed review of the ARB Implementation Plan
would appear to be of limited value here since only the analysis performed
by TRW will be considered meaningful. For this reason the ARB strategy
and Its impact on baseline emissions is considered only briefly in the
following section.
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4.2.2 ARB Control Strategy ,
4.2.2.1 The Plan and Results
The key elements of the California control strategy in the plan for
the San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin includes measures to reduce emissions
from both stationary and mobile sources. These measures include:
a) The state's current motor vehicle emission control program
b) Vehicle emission inspection and maintenance
c) Control of emissions related to the distribution and
marketing of petroleum products
d) Control of the emissions from aircraft and ships
e) Control of the emissions from the lumber industry's
burning processes
f) Control of the emissions from open burning.
The estimated effects of the most current (April 25, 1973 revision)
control strategy on the baseline emission inventory (April 25, 1973
revision) is shown in Table'4-15. The impact of the strategy measures,
with respect to ambient air quality, has been estimated by the ARB as
portrayed in Figures 4-16 through 4-18.
4.2.2.2 Limitations of the Control Strategy
The control strategy proposed for motor vehicles consists only of
an inspection and maintenance program. The ARB has claimed standard
emission reductions for this measure. Implementation will yield an overall
reduction of 2 percent of the ARB base year reactive hydrocarbon emissions
in 1975. These results are consistent with the TRW analysis.
The ARB stationary source control plan consists of three basic types
of measures:
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Table 4-15.
Effects of Control Strategy San Francisco Bay Area
Air Basin (Tons/Day) (Reference 4-27)
CUfflWUL OfflOM
Stationary Source* if
Edition Reduction*
Organic Solvent Oaara
Chemical
Metalluretcal
Mineral
Incineration
Coaouatlon of Fuell
Lunber Industry
Agriculture
Projected Emlaatonc (Stationary)
Mobile Source* (UnJer Current Progra»)3i
EftiBitnn Reductions
Inspection and Maintenance
Cataljtlc Converter Retrofit
MO, Enhnust Retrofit. KDV
Conversion to Cutout Fuel
Control of Aircraft and Ship*
Projected Emissions (Mobile)
Projected Eml*»lon* (Directly Emitted)
Photochemical ly Generated Partleulat* M»tt
Projected Controllable Enlolon* (Total)
Allowable EAlsilons
Eittialon Reduction* Heeded
Anblent Air Qua lit/
1970
Projected
Standard
CA»0> NOHOTTDS
1970
4«9
449
5132
5132
5581
r
5581
3864
(3-1
13
9
1975
479
..
..
--
..
-205
».
- 45
229
3166
-11*
--
__
__
-305
2347
3076
--
3076
3864
our Iv
1977
489
.
-
-
.
- 10
.
.
- 45
234
2240
-136
-625
._
._
-?13
1:75
1509
--
1509
3864
i.-pp»
.
1980
314
..
--
--
-
-225
._
._
- 50
239
1506
- 79
__
__
-225
877
1116
--
1116
386H
I
'
nnocn DIOXIDE!/
1970
176
176
547
547
723
723
738
(*
.009
.05
1975
191
.-
--
--
--
--
--
-
--
191
346
..
...
..
..
- ?3
y.i
514
5J4
738
--
mull A
.
1977
196
-
.
-
196
<68
_.
- 11
..
__
- ?3
:J".
430
430
738
--
t* . -pp
.
I960
206
-.
--
-
--
--
--
206
191
._
- 5
_.
..
- ??.
1<1
357
-
367.
733
--
')
*
oiaA^
1970
. 186
. 186
720
720
906
906
3«2
(1-
.30
.08
1975
196
- 36
""
"
-"
- 9
-
*
- 1
137
299
- 9
__
- 23
267
40/1
--
»04
242
162
our A\
.13
19T7
201
/ o^4
Jib
--
--
--
- 9
--
>
. 1
122
214
- 14
-42
._
..
- *4
134
256
--
256
242
-
e.-ppti
*
I960
.06
, frl>
. ll
--«j
--
--
- 9
--
..
- 1
95
its
- 8
- 23
._
.. I
- :c
9?
187
--
187
242
)
\J Control trttegy band o* control of of nllrojrn »lt«lon>.
i/ Control .tr.t.o' l»»d oo control of hlibljr »«Mtl»» or guile f»«i; proportion^ r.l.tlM.hlp
w»a>4 »e eil«t b.tvt.o ubltot oxidaat le»el* «n4 hlihior nectlv* or»«nlo < iBlMtoni.
Includt
> (rovth.
V
Prlurlly du. to vipor recoverr eyitn for (HOllne atrketini op*Mtlone.
A4Ju«>.el to reflect the tfrect* «hlch rwturel or «claentil phmoMne tuy h«v» oo etfclent Uiel*.
Calculated emlislon* «r» close to or leu
than tho** required to Mat national »tkr.i,rl.
-159-
-------
1000
800
600
GO
z
o
400
200
1) CURRENT MOTOR VEHICLE PROGRAM
2) VEHICLE INSPECTION/MAINTENANCE
3) CATALYTIC CONVERTER RETROFIT
(4) AIRCRAFT EMISSION CONTROLS
'5) ALL OTHER PROGRAMS
ALLOWABLE. EMISSIONS
(242 TONS/DAY)
1970
1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978
1980
Figure 4-16. Proposed California ARB Strategy Oxidant Emission Controls
Based on Controlling RHC for the San Francisco Region
(Reference 4-27)
-160-
-------
6000 r
5000
4000
AUOWABLE_EMI$S IONS
(3864 TONS/DAY)
3864
I
3000
2000
1000
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
CURRENT MOTOR VEHICLE PROGRAM
VEHICLE INSPECTION/MAINTENANCE
CATALYTIC CONVERTER RETROFIT
AIRCRAFT EMISSION CONTROLS
ALL OTHER PROGRAMS
_L
J
1980
1970
1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978
Figure 4-17.
Proposed California ARB Strategy CO Emission Controls
for the San Francisco Region (Reference 4-27)
-161-
-------
8001
700
600
500
I
C/1
z
o
400
300
200
100
- ALLOWABLEJiMISSiqNS
(738 TONS/DAY)
ni_i_(jwnui_c. tniooiUHO ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ . ^^ ^^ ^_ __ 7"3Q
(1) CURRENT MOTOR VEHICLE PROGRAM
(2) CATALYTIC CONVERTER RETROFIT
(3) AIRCRAFT EMISSION CONTROLS
I
I
I
1970
1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978
1980
Figure 4-18. Proposed California ARB Strategy NO Emission Controls
J\
for the San Francisco Region (Reference 4-27)
-162-
-------
(i-) Regulation of burning processes in the agriculture,
incineration, and lumber categories
(ii-) Vapor control systems for petroleum marketing
operations
(iii-) A tightening (and extension) of "Rule-66" regula-
tions concerning organic solvent reactivity.
Calculating percentage emissions reductions because of elimination of
given percentages of certain burning processes is straightforward, and if
ARB plans for eliminating certain burning processes are carried out, the
projected percentage emission reductions would be reliable. However, some
emission reductions have been claimed by the ARB for burning process modi-
fication as well as burning process elimination. Depending on the relia-
bility of emission factors for the modified process, these reductions may
not be certain and should be viewed with more caution than reductions
claimed from burning elimination.
The ARB plan for vapor control in petroleum marketing operations (bulk
stations, service station tanks, and auto tank filling), involves some
technical difficulties. However, a recent API report indicates that such
control is feasible and supports the emission reductions claimed by the
ARB. Assuming that this control measure can be implemented according to
schedule, the ARB reduction claims are realistic.
The least reliable part of the ARB stationary source control plan
involves the proposed controls for organic solvent users. As noted earlier,
there appeared to be some inconsistency in the ARB's reactivity assumptions
for organic solvents; regions controlled by Rule-66 and regions not fully
controlled by Rule-66 were both assigned 20 percent hydrocarbon reactivity.
For proposed future controls, the ARB has assumed that a further 80 percent
reduction in RHC could be obtained in most air basins by tightening and
extending Rule-66 regulations. What is even more troublesome is that the
specific control measures to be used to attain a further 80 percent reduc-
tion have not been presented. These factors make the ARB organic solvent
control strategy the least reliable part of the ARB stationary source
control plan.
The CARB has not recommended an aircraft emissions control strategy,
but has assumed that the burner-can retrofit program for jet aircraft will
-163-
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reduce total aircraft emissions by 95 percent in 1977. ' This is not likely,
according to EPA sources (4-28). Not all the types of aircraft which were
in use during the base year will be retrofit, and the effectiveness of the
retrofit program for reducing hydrocarbon and CO emissions is expected to
be approximately 40 to 50 percent reduction. These reductions can be con-
sidered only for most Class 2 and Class 3 aircraft primarily Boeing 707's,
727's, 737's, and Douglas DC-8's and DC-9's.
4.3 PROPOSED CONTROL STRATEGY
Ultimately, the effectiveness of any control strategy will be measured
in terms of its ability to reduce emissions to the desired air quality
levels. As noted, the relationship between air pollutant emissions and
ambient air quality is not well understood, despite major efforts to develop
both sophisticated analytical and statistical models. Many of the other
limitations in the data bases and working assumptions have been discussed.
The proposed control strategy fully recognizes inadequacies in the data
analyzed; it is presented to be as accurate a portrayal as possible of the
air pollution situation given the limits and constraints imposed upon the
study. Directionally, the implementation of many or all of the controls
will result in significantly improved air quality. In a technical sense,
the proposed plan should allow for attainment of the air quality standards
by the 1977 target date.
In general, implementation of Phase I measures can be justified on the
basis of air quality improvements at reasonable costs and with minor social
impacts. These measures are therefore highly recommended for implementation
as soon as possible.
The impact of implementing the Phase II control measures is staggering,
both in terms of economic costs and the societal disruptions which would
result from their institution. Also, it is not clear at this time whether
some of these measures are technologically feasible and/or effective.
Further evaluation and testing is clearly warranted for these measures
before they can be advocated on a wide-spread basis.
The necessity for Phase II control measures results from insufficient
emission reductions being demonstrably achieved from the Phase I measures.
-164-
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The choice of which additional controls will actually be implemented remains
to be decided. The measures listed in this analysis were chosen somewhat
arbitrarily and are used more for illustrative purposes. They are intended
to indicate the severity of additional controls which appear to be necessary
to achieve the NAAQS. Other measures could easily have been considered. To
some extent, Phase II controls were aimed at controlling heretofore uncon-
trolled sources, e.g., motorcycles and heavy duty vehicles. The difficulty
of achieving additional controls after the Phase I measures can be briefly
summarized:
By 1975 to 1977, no single source category predominates in
the emission inventory; that is, all categories contribute
a little to the overall problem.
Major pollution sources, e.g., stationary sources and light
duty vehicles, will be stringently controlled by 1975 to
1977, and additional controls on these categories will be
difficult to achieve.
Minor pollution sources, e.g., motorcycles and heavy duty
vehicles, although uncontrolled, continue to be a relatively
small contributor to the problem; therefore, controls of
these categories will have only minor impact.
The control measures outlined are not new and have been proposed else-
where; no magic solution was found and only incremental improvements can
be expected from each strategy. Over the short term, large emission reduc-
tions will result from presently planned programs at all levels of govern-
ment federal, state, and local. By the years 1975 to 1977, the remaining
uncontrolled emissions will come from many, many sources, the majority of
which are controlled. At this point in time, incremental air quality
improvements become more difficult* expensive, disruptive, and publicly
unacceptable. However, the severity of the air pollution left few alterna-
tives for measures which would be adequate to accomplish the program
requirements.
4.3.1 Phase I Measures (Recommended)
4.3.1.1 Gasoline Evaporative Loss Controls
It is evident that as exhaust hydrocarbon emissions are more strin-
gently controlled, the percentage contribution of hydrocarbon emissions
from evaporative losses because of normal gasoline handling and transfer
operations will increase significantly. Therefore, it is recommended that
-165-
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controls be required to either prevent or capture these vapor losses before
escaping to the atmosphere. Control systems for certain transfer operations
are presently available and should be installed as quickly as possible,
i.e., bulk terminals and underground storage tanks. Implementation of this
measure should result in a reduction of RHC's of approximately 99 tons per
day in 1975 and 126 tons per day by 1977.
4.3.1.2 Organic Surface Coating Substitutions
Spurred in part by their contribution to the air pollution problem,
the paint and varnish industry has for some time been engaged in research
and development of less polluting surface coating formulations. Examples
of new formulations entering these markets are water-based or high solids
content products. It has been estimated by representatives in the industry
that significant inroads can be achieved by 1975 and 1977 to substitute
less reactive surface coatings for certain applications. Implementation
of such a measure is estimated to eliminate about 13 and 23 tons per day
of RHC's by 1975 and 1977, respectively.
4.3.1.3 Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Certain large dry cleaning plants continue to use reactive petroleum
solvents in their normal operations. In these plants, it is possible to
.install activated carbon absorption systems to control solvent'vapors.
Implementation of this measure should result in approximately 4 tons per
day of RHC's being eliminated by 1975, with the same reduction expected by
1977.
4.3.1.4 Degreaser Substitution
In areas with acute air pollution, substitution of less reactive solvents
for presently used degreaser solvents is a control measure which can readily
be implemented. Widespread institution of this control measure should result
in approximately 10 tons of RHC's being removed from the atmosphere by 1975
and 1977.
4.3.1.5 Burning Regulations
Both current and proposed ARB regulations for backyard, agricultural,
and lumber industry incineration practices are aimed at either restricting
incineration or requiring more efficient burning practices. It is estimated
-166-
-------
that such regulations will have already resulted in a total reduction of
RHC's by 1975 and one ton per day by 1977.
4.3.1.6 Aircraft Emission Controls
Current regulations for certain aircraft classes and aimed at reducing
smoke and particulates will also result in reductions of other air pollu-
tants. These reductions have been estimated and incorporated into the air-
craft emission inventory baseline. In addition, it appears that additional
reductions can be achieved by modifying presently practiced ground operation
procedures. This control is most applicable to major airport activity
centers for which it is proposed. It is estimated that 14 tons per day of
RHC's can be eliminated by 1975 and 16 tons per day by 1977 with the imple-
mentation of this control measure.
4.3.1.7 Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
In an attempt to derive the full benefit from both new and used car
emission controls, it is recommended that a mandatory annual inspection/
maintenance program be established. Initially, to minimize many of the
administrative and technical problems associated with instituting such a
program, it is recommended that an idle emissions test only be required at
the state owned and operated test facilities. After the program has been
operative for several years and most of the administrative details adequately
worked out, it is recommended that a loaded emissions testing program be
instituted by upgrading the testing facilities with the necessary additional
equipment and personnel. Implementation of this two-stage program should
result in 8 tons per day of, RHC's being eliminated by 1975. In 1977, with
the implementation of a loaded emissions test approximately 15 tons per
day of RHC's can be removed from the atmosphere.
4.3.1.8 Oxidizing Catalytic Converters
The California ARB has been and is currently evaluating catalytic con-
verters as a retrofit for pre-1974 vehicles. Preliminary data indicate
that large emission reductions are possible with these devices. The CARB
has proposed widespread use of this retrofit as a measure for meeting the
NAAQS, even though questions relating to the availability of lead-free fuel
and the overall applicability of the devices for all pre-1974 vehicles
remain unresolved. Catalysts developed to date require the use of lead-free
-167-
-------
gasoline to prevent poisoning of the catalytic element. It remains to be
seen what percentage of the older vehicles can operate satisfactorily on
lead-free gasoline. Assuming portions of the 1970 to 1974 and 1966 to 1969
vehicles can be retrofitted with catalytic converters, it is estimated a
reduction of 30 tons per day of RHC's can I be achieved by 1975 and 23 tons
per day by 1977.
j'
4:3.1.9 Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
The California ARB has accredited two devices for reducing hydrocarbon
and oxides of nitrogen emissions from 1955 to 1965 vehicles. These devices
have thus far been required only in the South Coast, San Diego, and San
Francisco Air Basins upon change of ownership. The devices are essentially
a vacuum spark advance disconnect (VSAD) with a thermal override switch to
prevent overheating or an electronic ignition system. Implementation of
this measure to all cars should reduce RHC emissions by 3.8 tons per day
in 1975 and 1.6 tons per day in 1977.
4.3.1.10 Mass Transit
The level of mass transit available presently is totally inadequate to
handle any substantial increases in ridership. Improving mass transit both
in terms of frequency and efficiency of service and breadth of coverage in
areas served is a necessary first step to attract additional riders. It is
also needed for making any measures which discourage private auto use more
effective. Finally, should the Phase II measures be implemented, it is
imperative as an alternative mode of travel. A much closer examination
should be given to establishing express bus and carpool lanes on certain
freeways. Park-and-ride facilities, as well as bicycling, should be
encouraged in more areas of the Basin.
As shown in Table 4-12, a series of mass transit improvements plus
incentives to discourage the private use of the automobile should result
in approximately 15 percent reduction in VMT without gasoline pricing or
rationing controls. The optimum mix of possible measures from Table 4-12
has not been determined, nor have the corresponding absolute emission
reductions been quantified. For that reason the above emission reductions
have not been included in the proposed strategy shown in Figures 4-19 and
4-20, The inclusion of these measures would allow a corresponding reduc-
tion in gas rationing requirements.
-168-
-------
4.3.2 Phase II Measures (If Demonstrably Warranted)
4.3.2.1 Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Application of the Phase I control measures on organic solvent uses
will result in significant hydrocarbon emission reductions. However, if
warranted, it appears that additional reductions may be achievable. These
additional reductions will be increasingly difficult to obtain since the
remaining emissions are either under tight control already or the sources
are very minor and diffuse, making them difficult to bring under control.
Examples of this latter category are organic solvent uses in printing
operations, pharmaceutical uses, insecticide/pesticide applications,
rubber tire manufacturing, plastic and putty manufacturing, etc. Individu-
ally, the sources are minor; in their composite they are presently a sig-
nificant uncontrolled source category. No reductions are claimed from
possible controls from these sources in this analysis. . As an alternative,
however, it is certainly recommended that a closer examination be made of
these minor polluters.
--^
4.3.2.2 Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
As shown previously, uncontrolled motorcycle emissions are projected
to be among the highest of any motor vehicle type on a grams per mile basis.
Their overall contribution to the pollution problem has been minor because
of the relatively low number of vehicles and annual mileages accumulated.
However, as the number of motorcycles increases (uncontrolled) and as more
controls are imposed on light and heavy duty vehicles, their emission con-
tribution will become more significant. Two-stroke motorcycles, especially,
are notoriously high emitters. In view of the projected importance of this
source category, a ban on motorcycles during the summer months when smog is
most intense, is a possible control measure. Part of the rationale for
this control is that motorcycles are used primarily for recreational pur-
poses, rather than for essential trip-making. A ban on motorcycles during
the smog season is estimated to eliminate 15 tons of RHC's in 1975 and
17 tons in 1977.
4.3.2.3 Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance and Catalytic
Converter and Evaporative Retrofit
For essentially the same reasons outlined under light duty vehicles,
mandatory inspection/maintenance for heavy duty vehicles can be an effective
-169-
-------
control measure. Limited test data is available and has demonstrated its
feasibility and effectiveness as a control measure.
Again, a limited amount of data exists demonstrating the effectiveness
and feasibility of heavy duty catalytic converter and evaporative retrofits
as potential control measures. More extensive field testing is necessary,
however, before widespread Implementation of these measures can be warranted.
It is estimated about 10 tons per day of RHC's, could be elminated with these
three control measures by 1975 and 9 tons per day by 1977.
4.3.2.4 Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit
Still another retrofit being considered for light duty vehicles (pre-
1970) is an evaporative control device. The CARB is currently investigating
the feasibility of this type of device and if demonstrated effective, they
may advocate its use. Others have pointed to the need for such controls
but actual working prototypes and field testing data are limited at this
time. The technical obstacles appear to be impeding widespread application
of this control measure. Also, since the device is to be used on pre-1970
vehicles, its effectiveness decreases with time because of normal attrition
of vehicles which can be retrofitted with such devices. Nevertheless, if
all the difficulties with this control can be eliminated, it is estimated
21 tons per day of RHC's can be reduced in 1975 and 14 tons per day in 1977.
4.3.2.5 VMT Reduction Through Gasoline Rationing
As a last resort type control, or after implementation of all Phase I
measures, additional reductions can be achieved by a program to reduce VMT
through gasoline rationing. In light of recent publicity declaring gasoline
shortages and/or the energy crises, the public appears to be ready to accept
a modest level of fuel rationing. Rationing should be viewed strictly as
an interim control to achieve modest reductions. Attempts to impose large
scale rationing upon the public will result in numerous undesirable con-
sequences. The effectiveness of gasoline rationing decreases as vehicular
exhaust emission characteristics decrease. In fact, if massive rationing
is contemplated, the value of extensive retrofitting programs becomes some-
what questionable. As the last measure to be implemented, it appears that
a 54 percent VMT reduction of light duty vehicles is necessary for attain-
ment of the oxidant standard by 1977, after imposition of Measures 1 through
-170-
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5 In Phase II or an 88 percent VMT reduction after implementation of all
Phase I measures (including petroleum marketing effect).
4.3.3 Summary of the Proposed Control Strategy
Tables 4-16 through 4-20 summarize the emission level effects of the
proposed TRW control strategy for the San Francisco Bay Area. Table 4-17
gives the emission level of THC, RHC, NOX, and CO from each source type for
1971, 1975, 1977, and 1980 under the Phase I TRW Strategy. The source
categories exactly correspond to the source categories in Table 4-16 which
gives the baseline emission inventory for San Francisco. The amount of
emission reduction for any particular source of interest can be obtained
by comparing Table 4-16 with Table 4-17.
Tables 4-18, 4-19, and 4-20 give the details on the effects of the
proposed motor vehicle control strategy for RHC, CO, and NO , respectively.
/\
The upper third of each table gives the motor vehicle baseline emission
inventory for 1971, 1975, 1977, and 1980. The center third summarizes the
reductions to be expected from the Phase I control measures. Finally, the
lower third indicates the effects of the Phase II controls.
Figures 4-19 and 4-20 summarize the proposed TRW emission control
strategies for RHC and CO. The effectiveness due to each measure can be
seen in relation to those allowable emissions which are necessary to meet
the standards. The baseline curve illustrates the federal, state, and
local controls which are already, or will be, in effect on all types of
sources. The curve for motor vehicles shows the effect of reduction due
to the proposed Phase I control measures, which affect light duty vehicles
only. Other sources show the reductions due to stationary source controls,
aircraft ground operation controls, and Phase II controls.
As discussed earlier, reductions due to mass transit improvements and
incentives to discourage auto use have not been included in Figures 4-19
and 4-20. These measures can be expected to reduce VMT approximately .15
percent with a corresponding reduction in gasoline rationing requirements
(see Table 4-12).
-171-
-------
600
(1)
!2!
3)
(4)
5
6
Baseline
Stationary Source Controls
Motor Vehicle Controls
Aircraft Controls
Phase II "Without" Gasoline Rationing
Phase II "With" Gasoline Rationing
500 '-
400
300
200
100
ALLOWABLE EMISSIONS
(125 Tons/Day)
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
YEAR
Figure 4-19. Summary of RHC Control Strategy Effectiveness
for San Francisco Bay Area (1970 to 1980)
-172-
-------
2500
2000
^1500
CO
o
1000
500
ALLOWABLE JEMI^SIONS
(1364 TONS/DAY)
(1) Baseline
(2) Motor Vehicle Controls
(3) Aircraft Controls
1 i
1970 1972
1974 1976
YEAR
1978 1980
Figure 4-20.
Summary of CO Control Strategy Effectiveness
for San Francisco Bay Area (1972 to 1980)
-173-
-------
Table 4-16. Baseline Emission Inventory - San Francisco Bay Area AQCR
SOURCE
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Chemical Industries
Incineration and
Agricultural Burning
Fuel Confcustion:
Steam Power Plants
-. Residential, Commercial,
and Industrial
Other:
Mineral, Food, Lumber,
and Metallurgical
Subtotal - Stationary
Aircraft
Kotor Vehicles
Light Duty Motor Vehicles
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
54
126
210
24
46
80
21
8
1
2
17
589
34
362
23
9
13
1030
RHC
5
117
42
5
9
16
-
1
-
.
-
195
31
301
19
9
12
567
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
3
.
58
62
8
186
14
326
20
78
-
624
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
27
25
-
21
10
92
110
2137
131
54
49
2573
1975
THC
61
142
222
25
49
85
25
8
1
2
1
20
642
38
209
23
10
17
939
RHC
6
132
44
5
40
17
-
1
' -
.
.
215
34
170
19
10
15
463
NOX
55
. -
-
-
-
3
_
61
66
10
195
21
273
22
103
"-
614
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
32
25
-
.
12
78
152
1301
149
62
60
1802
1977
THC
64
150
229
26
51
88
27
8
1
2
22
670
38
154
22
10
19
913
RHC
6
140
46
5
10
18
-
1
-
_ -
.
225
34
123
18
10
17
428
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
4
_
63
68
11
201
25
213
21
96
-
556
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
34
25
-
.
13
81
177
933
154
56
69
1470
1980
THC
71
166
246
28
54
94
30
8
1 .
Z
24
726
37
94
19
9
22
907
RHC
7
152
49
6
11
19
-
1
-
.
.
245
33
73
16
9
20
396
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
4
_
68
73
12
212
33
137 '
19
87
- .
488
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
38
25
-
.
15
87
192 .
522
163
46
81
1091
-------
Table 4-17. TRW Strategy -- San Francisco Bay Area AQCR
Source
Stationary Sources
Petroleum Refining
Petroleum Marketing
Organic Solvents:
Surface Coating
Dry Cleaning
Degreasing
Other
Chemical Industries
Incineration and Agri-
cultural Burning
Fuel Cortiustion:
Steam Power Plants
Residential, Commer-
cial, and Industrial
Other:
Mineral , Food,
Lurcher, and
Metallurgical
Subtotal Stationary
Aircraft
Motor Vehicles
LOMV
HDHV
Diesels
Motorcycles
Total
1971
THC
54
126
210
24
46
80
21
8
1
2
17
589
34
362
23
9
13
1030
RHC
5
117
42
5
9
16
*
1
-
-
.
195
31
301
19
9
12
567
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
3
-
58
62
8
186
14
326
20
78
-
624
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
27
25
-
21
10
92
110
2137
131
54
49
2573
1975
THC
61
36
155
3
49
85
25
3
1
2
20
440
22
159
23
10
17
671
RHC
6
33
31
1
-
17
-
-
-
-
.
88
20
128
19
10
15
272
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
3
-
61
66
10
195
21
270
22
103
-
611
CO
9
-
-
' -
-
-
32
12
-
-
12
65
130
989
149
62
60
1455
1977
THC
64
IS
115
3
51
88
27
3
1
2
22
391
21
110
22
10
19
573
RHC
6
14
23
1
-
18
-
-
-
-
62
18
83
18
10 ,'
17 ''
210
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
4
-
63
68
11
201
25
212
21
96
-
555
CO
9
-
-
-
-
34
12
-
-
13
68
152
647
154
56
69
1146
1980
THC
71
16
123
3
54
94
30
3
1
2
24
421
25
68
19
9
22
564
RHC
7
15
25
1
-
19
-
-
-
-
_
67
22
49
16
9
20
183
NOX
55
-
-
-
-
-
4
-
68
73
12
212
33
136
19
87
-
487
CO
9
-
-
-
-
-
38
12
-
-
15
74
166
363
163
46
81
893
en
i
-------
Table 4-18.
RHC Emissions from Motor Vehicles -- Projected Inventory and
Anticipated Reductions (1975 to 1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory"1
LOMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LOMV VSAD (1955-65)
Inspection /Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
Projected Reductions from
Additional Optimistic Measures
Eliminate Motorcycles
(during smog season)
LDMV Evaporative Retrofit0
HDMV Cat. Converter + Evap
+ 50 percent I/M
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
San Francisco Bay Area
1971
Tons/day
301.0
19.0
9.0
12.0
341.0
1975
Tons /day
170.0
19.0
10.0
15.0
214.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-30.0
-3.8
-8.0
-41.8
172.2
-15.0
-21.0
-10.0
-87.8
Percent
14.0
1.8
3.7
19.5
80.5
7.0
9.8
4.7
41.0
1977
Tons/day
123.0
18.0
10.0
17.0
168.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-23.0
-1.6
-15.0
-39.6
128.4
-17.0
-14.0
-9.0
-79.6
88.4
Percent
13.7
1.0
8.9
23.6
76.4
10.1
8.3
5.4
47.4
52.6
1980
Tons /day
73.0
16.0
9.0
20.0
118.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-14.5
-0.6
-8.8
-23.9
94.1
-20.0
' -7.5
-7.6
-59.0
59.0
Percent
12.3
0.5
7.5
20.3
79.7
16.9
6.4
6.4
50.0
50.0
a Based on presently proposed control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977 and 1980
c 83 percent effective, 65 percent of all nre- 1970 cars
d 50 percent THC effectice, exhaust-64 percent reactive, Evan. - 83 oercent effective, 75 percent of all vehicles,
9 percent reduction in HC from IEM
Light Dutv Motor Vehicles -
-------
Table 4-19. CO Emissions from Motor Vehicles -- Projected Inventory and
Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
Motorcycles
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV Cat. Converter
LDMV VSAD (1955-65)
Inspection/Maintenance
Total Reductions
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
San Francisco Bay Area
1971
Tons/day
2137.0
131.0
54.0
49.0
2371.0
1975
Tons /day
1301.0
149.0
62.0
60.0
1572.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-275.0
-6.3
-31.0
-312.3
1260.0
Percent
17.5
0.4
1.9
19.9
80.2
1977
Tons /day
933.0
154.0
56.0
69.0
1212.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-196.0
-1.8
-88.0
-285.8
926.0
Percent
16.2
0.1
7.3
23.6
76.4
1980
Tons/day
522.0
163.0
46.0
81.0
812.0
Reductions
Tons/day
-109.0
-0.3
-50.0
-159.3
653.0
Percent
13.4
0.0
6.2
19.6
80.4
a Based on presently proposed control programs
b Based on 10 percent Idle Test Failure in 1975, 50 percent Loaded Test Failure in 1977, 1980
Liqht Duty Motor Vehicle - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicle - (HDMV)
-------
Table 4-20. Oxides of Nitrogen Emissions from Motor Vehicles -- Projected
Inventory and Anticipated Reductions (1975-1980)
Baseline Emission Inventory3
LDMV
HDMV
Diesels
TOTAL
Projected Reductions from
Control Measures
LDMV VSAD (1955-65)
Total Reductions
San Francisco Bay Area
1971
Tons/day
326.0
20.0
78.0
424.0
TOTAL Remaining Emissions
1975
^
Tons/day
273.0
22.0
103.0
398.0
Reductions -
Tons /day
-3.0
-3.0
395.0
Percent
0.8
0.8
99.2
1977
Tons/day
213.0
21.0
96.0
330.0
Reductions
Tons/ day
-1.4
-1.4
328.6
Percent
0.4
0.4
99.6
1980
Tons/day
137.0
19.0
87.0
243.0
Reductions
Tons /day
-1.0
-1.0
242.0
Percent
0.4
0.4
99.6
00
I
a) Based on presently proposed control programs
Light Duty Motor Vehicles - (LDMV)
Heavy Duty Motor Vehicles - (HOMV)
-------
4.4 REFERENCES
4-1. J. C. Trljonis, An Economic Air Pollution Control Model Appli-
cation: Photochemical Smog inlos Angeles County in 1975.
Appendix A, Ph.D., Thesis, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, California, 1972.
4-2. E. E. Nelson, "Hydrocarbon Control for Los Angeles by Reducing
Gasoline Volatility," presented at the International Automotive
Engineering Congress, Detroit, Michigan, January 13-17, 1969.
4-3. California ARB, Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control
District, Western Oil and Gas Association, Gasoline Modification-
Its Potential as an Air Pollution Control Measure in Los Angeles
County. November 1969.
4-4. Western Oil and Gas Association, "Statement on Cost of Changing
Fuel Composition," November 10, 1969.
4-5. "Effect of Changing Gas Volatility on Refining Costs,"
Chemical Engineering Progress. 65 (2): 51-58, 1969.
4-6. Private communication with Howard Kline, Standard Oil Company
of California, June 22, 1973.
4-7. California ARB, Proposed Revision to Part IX of the State of
California Implementation Plan for Achieving and Maintaining
the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, San Francisco
Area Air Basin," April 25, 1973.
4-8. M. W. Leiferman, and J. E. Presten, "Control of Hydrocarbon
Vapor Losses During the Marketing of Gasoline at Service
Stations," Standard Oil Company of California, June 15, 1972.
4-9. Private communication with J. E. Presten, May 1973.
4-10. Refinery Management Services Co., Cost Effectiveness of Methods
to Control Vehicle Refueling Emissions for American Petroleum
Institute!January 1973.
4-11. EPA, "Aircraft Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasibility
of Control," 1973.
4-12. Private communication with personnel from Federal Aviation
Administration, Office of Environmental Quality, Washington,
D.C., May 1973.
4-13. EPA, Title 40 - Protection of Environment, Chapter 1, "Require-
ments for Preparation, Adoption, and Submittal of Implementation
Plans," April 17, 1973.
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4-14. EPA, "Control Strategies for In-Use Vehicles," November 1972.
4-15. EPA, "Requirements for Preparation, Adoption, and Submittal
of Implementation Plans," Federal Register.
4-16. "Bicycle Circulation and Safe'ty Study: Davis California,"
1972.
4-17. A. M. Voorhees and Associates, "Review of Carpool Literature
and Activities and Preliminary Evaluation of Carpool Motiva-
tion Techniques," Preliminary Report, 1973.
4-18. DeLeuw, Cather and Company, "Alternate Network Testing Proce-
dures," BART-Muni Coordinated Transit Planning Project, 1973.
4-19. DeLeuw, Cather and Company, "Vallejo Transit Master Plan and
Transportation Terminal Study," 1972.
4-20. DeLeuw, Cather and Company, "Livermore-Amador Valley Trans-
portation Needs Study," 1971.
«
4-21. DeLeuw, Cather and Company, "Tri-Cities Transportation Needs
Study," Draft Report, 1971.
4-22. Data Resources, Inc., "Preliminary Study for Energy Policy
Project," prepared for Ford Foundation, 1973.
4-23. California, The Resources Agency, ARB, "Effect of Speed on
Emissions," Project M-220, March 1971.
4-24. California ARB, "State of California Implementation Plan for
Achieving and Maintaining National Ambient Air Quality
Standards," February 1972.
4-25. EPA, Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors, AP-42.
4-26. Private communication with CARB personnel.
4-27. California ARB, "Proposed Revision to Part III, State of
California Implementation Plan for Achieving and Maintaining
National Ambient Air Quality Standards," April 20, 1973.
4-28. Private communication with EPA personnel.
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5.0 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED CONTROL MEASURES
This section summarizes the estimated costs due to the proposed
control measures for the San Francisco area.
5.1 GASOLINE MARKETING EVAPORATIVE LOSS CONTROL
In the San Francisco there are roughly 30 bulk terminals which are
presently uncontrolled because of their relatively small gasoline
throughputs. By requiring that these smaller terminals recover 90 per-
cent of the vapors now being lost to the atmosphere, a cost of roughly
$200,000 per terminal will be Incurred. This amounts to a total of
$6,000,000 for this control measure.
Full vapor recovery from gasoline marketing operations at service
stations.consists essentially of two vapor return systems; one system
transferring vapor from the underground storage tank to the delivery truck;
and one system transferring vapor from the vehicle gas tank to the under-
ground storage tank. The cost of retrofitting service stations with the
vehicle return system has been estimated in a study performed for the
American Petroleum Institute (5-1) to be $5000 per station. The cost of
providing new service stations with such a system was estimated to be
$2565 per station. In addition, yearly maintenance cost was estimated
to be $30 per station. The cost of retrofitting service stations with
an underground storage tank vapor return system is estimated to be $1300
per station (5-2). This cost was obtained from a range of cost estimates
for such a system of from $900 to $2000 per station. Recently, the Los
Angeles County APCD published figures which indicated a cost of roughly
$630 per station for the Identical system (5-3). Annual costs as well as
the cost of fitting new stations with such a system are negligible. Thus,
the total retrofit cost for full vapor recovery from an existing service
station 1s $6300, with a $30 per year maintenance cost. The cost to new
stations is $2565, with a $30 per year maintenance cost.
The number of service stations in the region was obtained from the
San Francisco Bay Area APCD, while the growth rate for new service station
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construction was assumed to be the same as the growth rate for the light-
duty motor vehicle population in the region. Thus, by 1975, with an
estimated number of 4,'000 service stations, the cost of full vapor re-
covery is estimated to be $25,200,000 initially,, and $274,000 annually.
The economic savings due to the recovery of the gasoline .vapors has
not been quantitatively estimated here (although it should be substantial).*
This is because of the present uncertainty in the price of gasoline and
the fact that the petroleum industry must allocate the capital for these
systems immediately. Whether they would choose to recover these funds
from the consumer (by increasing the price of gasoline)", or by waiting
long enough for the recovered gasoline to pay for the systems, or by
some combination of the above, is not known.
5.2 INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAM
According to a California ARB,study (5-4), the cost of an idle-mode
inspection and maintenance' program conducted at state-owned and operated
centers can be summarized as follows: ;
Initial acquisition cost = $1.21/vehicle
to the state
Annual costs to the veh'icle
owners
Inspection fee = $0.96/vehicle
Source and repair cbst = $3.60/vehicl'e (at a 10% failure rate)
Potential fuel savings = -$1.33/vehicle (at a 10% failure rate)
Annual cost to government
Lost gasoline tax revenues = $0.68/vehicle (at a 10% failure rate)
Total annual cost = $5.12/vehicle (at a 10% failure rate)
According to the same study, the most cost effective program for motor
vehicle inspection and maintenance consists of a key-mode (loaded emissions)
test conducted at state-owned and operated centers. Under this set-up, the
initial costs are estimated to $1.98 per vehicle while annual costs
(assuming a 50 percent rejection rate) are estimated to be $10.23 per
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vehicle. This figure is arrived at under the following assumptions:
Annual inspection fee $ 1.05 per vehicle
Maintenance cost $13.35 per vehicle
Potential fuel savings -$ 8.35 per vehicle
Lost gasoline tax revenue $ 4.18 per vehicle
Total annual cost $10.23 per vehicle per year
By 1975 there will be approximately 2,926,200 registered light-
duty vehicles in the Bay Area. Therefore, initial costs are estimated
to be $6,120,000 and annual costs amount to $17,557,000 per year.
5.3 VSAD/LIAF RETROFIT .OF PRE-1966 LDV
According to California Air Resources Board figures, a reasonable
cost for this retrofit is $35 per vehicle. By 1975, there will be about
640,250 pre-1966 light-duty vehicles registered in the region. The total
cost for the retrofit is then $22,409,000.
5.4 CATALYTIC CONVERTER RETROFIT
A catalytic converter retrofit for 75 percent of 1971 to 1974 model
year vehicles and 20 percent of 1966 to 1970 model year vehicles will cost
about $175 per vehicle. In 1975, there will be approximately 1,077,000
vehicles in this retrofit category. The total cost is then $188,448,000.
5.5 SOLVENT USAGE
The cost of solvent use controls has been estimated for Los Angeles
County at $4,500,000 (5-5). This represented the cost of development of
the appropriate solvents. Once developed, the production cost should
be similar to present production costs. Hence, this development cost
should be apportioned across the nation where such regulations are being
applied. In this case, the cost becomes negligible with respect to other
costs incurred under the proposed strategy and will be neglected.
The control costs described above are summarized in Table 5-1.
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Table 5-1. Estimated Costs of Control for San Francisco Area
Initial Annual
Gasoline marketing controls $ 31,200,000 $ 274,000
(full vapor recovery)
Inspection and maintenance
1975 3,538,000 15,000,000
1977 (additional cost) 2,582,000 14,920,000
VSAD/LIAF for pre-1966 vehicles 22,400,000
Catalytic converter 188,000,000
Total cost (including loaded I/M) $253,720,000 $30,194,000
Per capita cost $51 $7
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5.6 REFERENCES
5-1. Refinery Management Services Co., "Cost Effectiveness of
Methods to Control Vehicle Refueling Emissions," prepared
for American Petroleum Institute, January 1973.
5-2. Personal communication with J. E. Presten, Marketing Operations
of Standard Oil Corporation of California (San Francisco
Offices).
5-3. APCD Digest, Vol. Ill, No. 5, May 1973, p. 3.
5-4. Northrop Corporation in Association with Olson Laboratories,
Inc., "Mandatory Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance,"
Part B, Final Report, Vol. V, Part 1, Summary, December 1971.
5-5. J. C. Trijonis, An Economic Air Pollution Control Model
Application; Photochemical Smog in Los Angeles County~in 1975.
Appendix A, Ph.D. Thesis, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, California, 1972.
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6.0 SOCIAL IMPACTS
Social Impacts are non-monetary costs attributable to the Imposition
of a set of constraints. These impacts are generally measured by the
loss of time, opportunity, and/or Inconvenience. The magnitude of the
impacts is primarily a function of age, race, and income level. Measures
which are Intended to influence, control, or restrict the ownership and
use of motor vehicles will, in general, result in social impacts. In a
similar and related manner, measures which affect personal mobility,
mode choice decisions, and regional access also Induce social costs.
To date, because of the very nature of social impacts, it has been
difficult to quantitatively evaluate them. For example, only a limited
amount of research has been devoted to estimating foregone or lost
opportunity costs with respect to not making a trip.
This section presents a broad overview of the types of social
Impacts which are likely to result from the implementation of trans-
portation control measures being contemplated, followed by a specific
Bay Area application identifying social and other Impacts for new
transit services in the Llvermore-Amador Valley. The specific example,
taken from a recent transit study, points up that local transit services
must primarily be justified on the basis of social benefit (equity, etc.),
while long haul or express, bus services offer much greater economic benefit.
In view of the many social Impacts which are likely to be encoun-
tered as a result of transportation controls and the diverse character
of the metropolitan areas affected, it will be important for planning
agencies to anticipate and minimize the impact of controls where possible.
Increased public awareness and concern have been largely responsible
for the desires to live 1n a clean environment. In addition, public
participation in the decision making process will continue to be
crucial to the orderly transition and acceptability of various con-
trols. To be meaningful, citizen participation 1n the form of both
structural and informal dialogue will have to be promulgated at the
local and regional levels. These engaged in control plan develop-
ment should get out to the citizens, listen and learn. To be sensi-
tive to local conditions takes time but helps improve and develop
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support for control measures. Only then can the final decisions con-
cerning which controls are applicable for a given region be complete
and a reflection of the public's desires; this in turn will result in
minimizing the social impacts.
6.1 WHO - THE IMPACT ON VARIOUS SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS
The diversity of the region's population and lifestyles results in
non-uniform impacts to different socio-economic groups from the im-
plementation of various transportation control measures. In an attempt
to fully consider the issue of equity, it is necessary to be cognizant
of the groups which are unduly discriminated against by the different
control schemes. Special care must be exercised to remain sensitive
to the needs of the young, aged, poor, and minorities. In many in-
stances, transportation planners have either inadvertantly or system-
atically failed to meet the requirements of these groups.
By necessity, the young, old, poor, and minority classes have
accounted for a disproportionate share of transit ridership. Since
these groups own fewer motor vehicles, their trips may be viewed as
having more of a required nature than average trips undertaken. For
example, these groups make fewer pleasure or recreational type trips.
Controls directed at uniformly reducing VMT may, therefore, Impact
these socio-economic groups more than the average groups (i.e., white,
middle age, and middle income). Factors which must be carefully con-
sidered in assessing the Impact on these special groups are presented
below.
6.1.1 The Young and Aged
Without question, private automobiles are the dominant means of
personal transportation, yet, because of age considerations, large
segments of our young and elderly population groups are excluded from
this transportation mode, unless chauffeured. Table 6-1 illustrates
the percentage breakdown of auto'ownership by age category.
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Table 6-1. Car Ownership by Age of Household Level (6-1)
% of Households Owning
Age of Household Head No Car At Least One Car
Under 25 19.3 80.7
25 - 34 12.0 88.0
35 - 44 11.6 88.4
45-64 13.6 86.4
55-64 19.7 80.3
65 and over 44.9 55.1
In certain regards, the young and old stand to benefit from the
imposition of transportation countrols; in other situations, these
population groups will be adversely affected. Currently, the young and
old without autos represent a large segment of a transit systems
"captive riders." As shown above, nearly a fifth of those under 25
and more than two-fifths of those over 65 do not own private autos.
This implies these families are totally dependent on either public
transportation or others with cars for satisfying their transportation
requirements. Measures to improve mass transit, such as more fre-
quent, faster, and cheaper service will, in general, benefit the young
and old.
On the other hand, many trips undertaken by the young and old are
accomplished by chauffeuring activity. Frequently, for reasons of safety,
inconvenience or physical handicaps, it is necessary for the young and old
to depend on friends or relatives for escorted auto transportation.
Under these conditions, VMT reduction measures may adversely affect
the young and old. Typically, these trips are of a required nature,
e.g., school, dentist, doctor, and uniform restraints on VMT could
result in significant inconveniences.
The impact on the younger segments of a population tend to be
less critical than similar impacts on the elderly. Supposedly, lost
opportunity costs and inconveniences are taken more in stride by the
young since "their day will come." With the coming "of age," the younger
age groups rapidly gain mobility and accessibility; also, physical
handicaps pose less problems with alternative modes of transportation
(e.g., walking, bicycling, etc.).
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The problems of transportation and the elderly are of a slightly
different nature. In fact, "many older people see transportation as
the major impediment to their having a personally meaningful and
socially constructive retirement. Only a small fraction of the elderly
own automobiles and have driver's licenses. This is due primarily to
their economic status, and secondarily to health reasons." (6-2) Table
6-2, based on data from the New York Metropolitan region, clearly
illustrates the lack of auto availability among the old. In the same
study, it was noted that those elderly persons with driver's licenses
(24 percent) accounted for more than half of all trips attributable
to elderly persons.
"This indicates that there may be a significant latent demand
for public transportation for the elderly. Indeed, when
Los Angeles reduced off-peak fares for the low income elderly
by 33 percent, there was a 24 percent increase in total rider-
ship, and a 10 percent shift in ridership from peak to non-
peak hours. The experience of New York, Pittsburgh, and other
major cities are similar. The reasons for the high price
elasticity of demand among older people are their low incomes
and the fact that few of the elderly embark on the inelastic
work trip."
Table 6-2. Percent of Elderly With No Autos Available (6-3)
Household Income Group Percent of Elderly with Zero Auto Availability
$0 - $2999 88.7
$3000 - $5999 58.2
$6000 - $9999 29.6
Greater than $10,000 20.6
All Income Groups 55.6
Viewed in this context, air pollution controls which will facili-
tate improved transit services will result in a positive benefit for
many of the young and elderly population segments. Restrictions on
auto usage will have similar impacts on most age categories but,
overall, they will affect the young and aged proportionally less be-
cause of auto ownership characteristics.
6.1.2 The Poor
By definition, the lower income families are less able to afford
private automobile transportation,. Consequently, their position is
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closely related to the problems of the young and elderly; as a group*
the poor are, for the most part, dependent on public transportation for
satisfying most trip making needs. Table 6-3 presents data on auto
ownership by income level.
Table 6-3. Car Ownership by Household Income Level (6-1)
Percent of Household Owning
Household Income No Car At Least One Car
Under $3000 57.5 42.5
$3000 - $4999 30.8 69.2
$5000 - 7499 13.6 86.4
$7500 - $9999 8.4 91.6
$10,000 - $14,999 4.1 96.9
$15,000 and over 3.8 96.2
In considering differential Impacts by income levels, the means
by which trip purposes are fulfilled is the critical variable. The
impacts can be divided into those associated with transit usage and
automobile usage.
The impacts on the poor from improvements In public transit are
analogous, in many respects, to those previously discussed 1n Section 6.1.1.
Most likely, significant benefits will result from these measures. In
addition, it has been suggested that transportation deficiencies are
directly relatable to poverty. Thus, improvements in public transpor-
tation may contribute to easing some of our social and urban problems
as well. In a study of the feasibility of establishing fare-free
transit in the Los Angeles region, it was noted (6-2):
"Since unemployment is a major issue in poverty-oriented study
and research, many assert that there is a strong relationship
between unemployment and limited transportation to appropriate
job centers. Conclusions of many investigative reports on
the racial flareups of the 60's concurred and listed public
transit improvements among the most vital of their recommen-
dations. The McCone Commission made such a recommendation
following an investigation of background causes of the Watts
riots."
While the report cited the relationship between transportation and un-
employment rates (and therefore poverty groups), 1t was careful to
point out that discriminatory hiring practices and the competitive job
markets were also major determinants of high unemployment.
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"While non-work trips are generally considered to be more
responsive to fare changes, in the case of bus services the
inconveniences of boarding and departing from the vehicle with
parcels, of making necessary transfers, and of complying with
schedules and routes seem to suppress this elastic behavior
for shopping trips. In the Southern Los Angeles portion of
the employment study which has been discussed, residents in
a community with a 50 percent car ownership rate accomplished
94 percent of food shopping trips via private auto or taxi.
"Assuming that service limitations of bus service could
be reduced, it is more likely that benefits from improvements
in non-work oriented travel would be felt more consistently
within low income groups than benefits from enhanced employ-
ment opportunities. Shopping facilities can be clearly
identified within a community or region, and providing that
an individual has money to do so, he may utilize those
faciliiies once he has gained access to them."
In other words, improved transit tends to equalize accessibility among
income levels, whereas it is currently more readily available to higher
income groups.
The impact of auto-oriented controls for low income auto owners is
quite different. Currently, as the average income increases, so does
the average annual miles travelled per automobile. Equally interesting
to note is that up to incomes of $7500 per year, the percentage of total
VMT by income group is even less than the percentage of vehicles owned
by those groups. This is primarily because of higher income groups owning
more than one auto per household.
The vehicular controls being considered in this report are
basically of two typesvehicle oriented measures (e.g., retrofit
devices, inspection/maintenance) and traffic oriented measures (e.g.,
auto free zones, parking restrictions, exclusive bus and carpool lanes).
Restraints of this nature increase travel costs and times.
Time penalties are generally perceived as more important with
higher income groups. In this respect then, equivalent time penalties
would result in a more significant impact on the rich or those who
place high values on time inconveniences. Such impacts could result
from measures such as freeway metering, parking restrictions, auto free
zones, or exclusive bus lanes.
Many of the economic impacts associated with motor vehicle
oriented measures have been described and discussed in Chapter 4.0.
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The overall economic costs of the control programs will indeed be very
significant. In the majority of the regions, a substantial portion of
these costs are being passed onto the automobile owners. Measures which
require auto owners to assume all control costs for their vehicles
are highly regressive and tend to discriminate against the lower income
groups. For example, emission taxes which penalize polluters in accor-
dance to the amount of pollution released place a heavy burden on the
poor, who own older cars with higher pollution emitting characteristics.
Regulations which require expensive retrofit devices and inspection and
maintenance checks similarly Impose heavy burdens on those least able
to absorb the high capital, testing, and repair costs.
Equitably Internalizing the costs of air pollution control has
been the subject of numerous research efforts. Many methods have been
proposed for financing control costs. As the dates approach for im-
plementing many of the controls, it will be necessary to experiment
with novel financing schemes. The literature is abundant in approaches
which attempt to equitably allocate costs among polluters. What is
missing are documented case studies of novel approaches which have
actually been attempted.
Illustrative of recent proposals for reducing air pollution in
California, while remaining sensitive to lower income groups, are the
following two examples:
1) An Emissions Tax to Induce Reducted VMT (6-4)- "On the basis
of rough predictions of response an im'tiaT level of taxation
could be chosen. Air quality levels prior to the institution
of the tax would be measured and recorded. After the tax had
been in effect for, say, six months or a year, new measurements
would be made.... If the remaining improvement were less than
desired, the level of the emission tax would be raised An
important objection to a system which minimizes total expendi-
tures is that it ignores the burden which the tax places on
particular people (e.g., the poor). If the emissions tax goes
to replace other sources of revenue, it is not a net cost for
motorists in the aggregate, but it may still be a net cost for
certain individuals if their other tax payments are reduced by
an amount less than the emission tax. If the emissions tax
replaces part of the income tax, for example, the poor may find
that their income tax falls by less than the amount of the emis-
sions tax. This is a crucial problem, but it can be dealt with
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by providing exemptions from the tax for any person who has
an income below a certain level In order to achieve
desired air quality with this exemption, we may have to raise
the uniform tax rate above what it would be if the poor paid
the tax without exemptions. This procedure is acceptable
because the poor are sheltered from the increased rate by their
exemption, and the outcome is that the rich pay proportion-
ately more than the poor for cleaning the environment."
2) Alternative Payment Schemes(6-5)
User-Pays -- the cost of a control strategy is
totally assumed by the owners of the vehicles
affected.
Uniform-Payment-Per-Vehicle-Mile-Driver -- simply
stated, this scheme takes the total annualized
regional costs and divides by the annual vehicle
miles driven....
Uniform-Payment-Per-Vehicle ~ in this case, the
total annualized regional costs is divided by the
number of light duty vehicles in the basin. Each
vehicle owner then pays an identical amount per
vehicle. Payment could be'made by a uniform increase
in vehicle registration fees.
Income-Proportional -- payment of the control
strategy is made on a scale that is directly pro-
portional to income. For this scheme, everyone in
the region - not just those owning vehicles - is
responsible for financing the additional controls.
In the above list, the user-pays scheme must be regarded as the
most regressive. That is, the vehicle ownership by model year is suffi-
ciently biased that the largest burden rests on the group with the
smallest income. Conversely, the income proportional scheme is the
least regressive in this sense.
6.1.3 The Minority Groups
The impacts likely to be incurred by minority groups from trans-
portation controls are similar, in many respects, to those impacts
already discussed in the previous two sections. Minority groups have
a higher tendency to be poor, without autos, and largely dependent on
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public transportation services to meet many basic trip-making require-
ments. Measures designed to improve public transit will most likely
result in a positive impact on the many transit dependent minorities.
Controls on vehicle usage' requiring substantial economic costs will
place heavy burdens on the large share of minorities with low incomes.
Another issue facing minority groups is that of accessibility. As
stated previously, inadequate or poor transit service was cited as
one determinant of the Watts riots. Apparently, the lack of mobility
contributed to the frustrations of unemployment and impeded any attempts
to find meaningful work. Employment centers and transportation systems
are inter-related. Urban transportation systems which promote depen-
dence on automobile travel systematically exclude many minorities
living in the ghettos from equal opportunities. Control measures con-
templated should carefully consider potential obstacles to the upward
mobility and equal opportunities of the minority classes.
6.2 WHEN - THE IMPACT ON MOBILITY PATTERNS
Among the control measures being considered for reducing air pollution
are many which will directly Impact existing mobility patterns, or when
and where people travel. Examples of some of these controls are:
Staggered work hours
Four day work weeks
Parking restrictions.
6.2.1 Typical Urban Driving Patterns
The magnitude of the social impact to be expected from any measures
depend heavily on regional characteristics. Travel patterns throughout
the country are highly divergent with respect to trips taken, distances
travelled, and times travelling. Present driving patterns have evolved
slowly and intuition suggests these patterns will show a high degree of
resistance to change. Variations between cities are largely because of
land use patterns and alternative modes of transportation. Because of
this, one would expect different regional impacts to the same controls.
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6.2.2 Reducing Optional Trips
I . :
When a person makes a trip from one location to another, 1t Is done
to serve some human need or desire. The choice of travel mode, as
well as the actual decision to travel, both Involve a human decision
process. Both decisions are probably made rationally with due con-
sideration for a number of actual and apparent factors. The ability
of various Individuals to accurately assess these factors varies, but
overall, Incorrect judgements 1n both directions tend to offset each
other. Upon consideration of the actual and perceived factors re-
lating to a trip, the Individual decides whether or not to make the
trip and by which mode to travel. Once the decision has been made
to make the trip, to eliminate or prohibit this trip would mean that
some need would be unmet or purpose unfulfilled.
It must be emphasized that attempting to define which travel 1s
optional or unnecessary 1s fraught with numerous difficulties. An
obvious difficulty Involves the definitions of terms such as, "necessary,
optional, and essential." Since we are dealing with personal value
judgements, what one Individual views as unnecessary may be considered
very essential to another Individual. Even for the same individual
and the same trip, circumstances frequently change so that the individual's
perception of the need to make the trip change. Another difficulty en-
countered in assessing Individual needs is the dynamic state of decision
making as it relates to human values with the passage of time. The
steady growth or VMT experienced since World War II has in large part
been attributable to an Improved quality of life. This affluence has
resulted in a higher standard of living with an increased ability to
afford more travel and more time to partake of it. What was once
the Sunday afternoon drive in the park has now become the weekend
excursion to the mountain resort areas.
In order to even approximate what level of trip making is optional
or marginally necessary, it is necessary to superimpose one set of
human values upon another. The imposition of new values upon others
will always result in social costs to the individuals affected. The
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magnitude of these costs are related to the severity of the constraints
and the individual's ability to adapt to the constraints. It is
apparent, therefore, that caution be exercised in carefully weighing
the societal costs associated with the gains to be derived and the
degree of controls needed to attain any desired level of VMT reduction.
A number of factors enter into any decision concerning whether or
not a trip should be undertaken. These factors are in many cases also
directly related to the variables which influence the mode choice
(to be discussed later). The decision to make a trip is basically
in order to meet a need or fulfill a desire. The needs and desires,
in turn, are a function of the individual's personal makeup and the
environment in which he lives. Each trip made is the result of either
an explicit or implicit decision to serve a need. Personality traits
are likely to influence the variability of specific trips made, whereas
the overall environment is likely to dictate the aggregate demand of
all trips made. A ghetto family without a car .will make fewer trips
overall than an upper class family which has three cars at its disposal.
In this case, the differences in opportunity will define the trip making
characteristics and needs. Because of differences in household character-
istics and physical environments, eliminating identical trips are per-
ceived to have significantly different impact depending on the groups
experiencing the impact. Controls which will result in trip reductions
should not only consider trips intended for basic functions as working
and shopping, but also the human needs for recreation and relaxation.
6.3 WHERE - THE IMPACT ON ACCESSIBILITY
It has frequently been said for Los Angeles that "to have a job,
you must have a car and to have a car, you must have a job." This
relationship of employment opportunities (especially for certain minori-
ties) to transportation has been alluded to previously. Certain control
measures being considered will have a definite impact on accessibility
and consequently, they will result in social impacts. For example,
the creation of auto free zones to eliminate "hot spot" pollution
-------
problems will result In inconveniences for those wishing to enter the
zone by auto. Depending on the extent of the Inconvenience, a driver
may park in a peripheral area and walk, ride mass transit, or find an
alternate place to accomplish the desired trip purpose. The first two
impacts are personal time Inconveniences; the latter impact has Impli-
cation^ for the economic success or viability of the auto free zone.
In some cases, air quality Improvement and Increased economic activity
have resulted through the creation of auto free zones. Apparently, the
new mall-type environment attracted more shoppers into the region-
many of which were previously unwilling to put up with the traffic
jams and parking difficulties. In most cases, the success of auto free
zones is related to the quality and quantity of parking available
outside the zone and the types of transportation available within the
mall (e.g., trams, electric cars).
Overall, 1t 1s estimated Impacts from accessibility restrictive
measures are minor and can be very positive. "The Intent is generally
to penalize private transportation while favoring public transit. In
addition to being conservation-oriented, such schemes tend to favor
many of the underprivileged population segments.
6.4 HOW - THE IMPACT ON MODE CHOICE DECISIONS
Numerous factors affect an individual's choice of travel mode.
Those relating to the Individual include age, stx, and Income. Equally
important are variables dealing with the individual's environmental
surroundingsland use patterns and transportation systems. It 1s
generally conceded that these latter factors play a key role 1n deter-
mining the levels of trip making. Regional differences In urban land
use and traffic patterns are very pronounced and 1t is extremely
difficult to generalize which segments within a community account for
any specified level of travel. Davis, California, for example, has
more than half of the vehicle trips to Its center being made by bicycles.
In midtown Manhattan, more than half of the VMT 1s attributable to
taxicabs. The centralization of federal activities and the construction
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of a totally new fixed rail transit system 1n Washington, D.C., will
result in traffic patterns very different than those experienced in
the auto-oriented, metropolitan Los Angeles region.
Experience has shown that the more important factors in mode choice
decision-making are related to the transportation system and its per-
formance characteristics. Basically, the parameters which determine
mode choice are the time and money associated with the trip. Viewing
the trip in terms of time and money, making the trip requires a certain
economic cost. Obviously, the traveler will attempt to reduce the
actual and perceived costs.
Most of the controls being considered increase the cost of private
automobile travel and/or reduce the cost of public transportation. The
purpose of course is to induce higher percentages of people onto public
transit. While aiding those dependent on transit services, measures
which make it more expensive to drive tend to be regressive. As such,
the social impacts experienced will be more heavily felt by the poor.
It has been shown that time costs are frequently a more serious
penalty to the middle and high income groups. Consequently, measures
which result in time penalties, e.g., ramp metering, exclusive bus
and carpool lanes, are often more effective at inducing transit ridership
than monetary fees. From an equity standpoint, these controls are highly
desirable since the poor place less value on their time. As a result,
one would expect a more uniform mode shift by income groups from such
controls.
The result of control measures on mode choice decisions will
generally favor more extensive public transit usage. Socially, the
impacts will initially be viewed as inconveniences and to a limited
extent, a loss of personal mobility. In the long run, as adjustments
are made to new life styles, these impacts will have been appreciably
diminished.
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6.5 SUMMARY
The social Impacts associated with implementing the proposed
transportation control measures will be significant. Many impacts
identified will be of a positive nature, e.g., Improved mobility and
accessibility for deprived population groups, more efficient energy
utilization. Other impacts, however, are likely to have negative social
impacts, e*g., placing additional burdens or regressive measures on
smaller population segments.
Critical to minimizing the social impacts will be the time schedules
used for Implementation of the various controls. Schedules which allow
for personal adjustments to the imposed constraints will most probably
result 1n an orderly transition.
Table 6-4 presents a summary of the overall social impacts likely
to occur as a function of the control measures. Estimates for the extent
of the overall Impacts are intended to present a relative index and
have to be qualified by some rather simplifying assumptions. For
example, it was assumed that the young, old, poor and minorities owned
old cars (1f any), drove primarily out of necessity, and placed little
value on their time. The "average" American, however, was viewed as
relatively mobile, the owner of at least one car, and someone who
placed a high value on his time.
The impacts on mobility were considered to be those which impeded
when trips would be made and what types of trips would be made; these
effects were related directly to the typical urban driving patterns.
Accessibility impacts are those which restrict where one goes and the
ease with which the trips can be made.
Lastly, a summary of the Impact on mode choice decisions is given.
This considered the relative effect a given measure would have on the
attractiveness of the predominant transportation modes, I.e., the
private auto and public transit.
For each control measure, there are usually several kinds of pro-
grams which can be instituted and even more ways of implementing them.
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Table 6-4. Summary of Overall Social Impacts
t Vehicle Oriented
I/M
Retrofit
Traffic Flow
TOPICS
On-Street Parking
Staggered Work Hours
Highway Construction
Ramp Metering
VMT Reduction
Transit Improvements
Car Pooling
Parking Control
Pricing Schemes
Auto Free Zone
Gasoline Rationing
o.
=1
o
CO J-
3 C5 >>
O
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10 e -a
> 0 i
C Ul
C 0 ^
o o en
LU C
P 1 3
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(0 T- >-
Q. U
S 0
-.CO
-
0
0
0
0
0
+
0
0
0
i.
0
0
0.
--
--
0
0
0
0
0
+
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--
0
--
CO
4J
TJ 3
0
4-^ 'r* *r~
U CO S-
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+
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0
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-
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++.
+
+
+
+
0
LEGAND (relative impacts)
++ Very Favorable
+ Favorable
0 Very Minor or None
- Unfavorable
Very Unfavorable
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In many cases, the means by which a program is implemented can signifi-
cantly affect the degree of social impacts encountered. To illustrate
this point, several examples are considered below.
Retrofit devices are shown to have a very unfavorable impact on
the young/elderly, poor, and minorities. This has assumed these
groups have old cars which are not used much and which require
expensive retrofits, e.g., catalytic converters. If individuals
in these groups had no car or the government provided subsidies
to finance the retrofits, the impacts would be completely
different.
Pricing schemes are also shown to have regressive impacts on
the young/elderly, poor, and minorities. This assumes relatively
uniform fee or taxing policies on all groups. As discussed in
Section 4.1.4, a host of methods are available to insure a more
equitable distribution of pollution control costs. Institution
of such financing schemes would change the overall impacts on
special population groups.
Gasoline rationing is noted as a very unfavorable impact on the
young/elderly, poor, and minorities. This assumes a free market
situation where gasoline is limited at the distributor level and
the price is allowed to seek its own level. The net result
would be almost equivalent to uniform taxing policies. Those
less able to afford gas would be priced off the road. If,
however, a rationing system was established allocating equal
shares of gas to all vehicles at fixed prices, the social
impacts would be significantly changed and more favorable.
Impact of Improved Transit Services:
Livermore-Amador Valley Example
The following analysis was developed by DeLeuw , Gather and Company
for impact of new transit services, long haul (express) and local, in
the Livermore-Amador Valley. It serves to illustrate the type and
magnitude of impacts attributable to improved transit services in the
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absence of other control measures. The introduction of tolls, traffic
constraints and other measures will increase benefits from express
transit, but this must be counterbalanced with other costs (inconvenience,
etc.) associated with the constraints.
1. Express Bus Benefits
Eight categories of quantifiable express bus benefits were
identified. Five of the categories - substitution for the
second car in commuting to work, substitution for driving to
work and parking, additional income from an improved job,
occasional usage, and school transportation savings (sub-
stitution for being driven to school) - benefit the express
bus user. A sixth category of negative benefits - loss
from additional time on the bus - must be subtracted from
the bus user benefits. Two other categories - savings from
reduced number of parking spaces and savings from reduced
traffic congestion during the rush hour - benefit the community-
at-large.
Table 6-5 and Figure 6-1 compare express bus costs and benefits,
indicating total benefits would be 1.1 to 2.2 times system
cost. Note that in the benefit/cost comparison total cost
is used and not deficit. To reduce system cost by subtracting
revenue would require that an equivalent amount be subtracted
from system benefits.
The computation of express bus benefits includes consideration
of future community benefit from a reduced automobile usage.
For example, if no public transportation system exists, new
Valley residents typically must buy a second automobile. An
objective of transit service is to reduce the need for high
household budget allocation for additional automobiles and
thereby reduce traffic congestion, air pollution and the
need for expensive traffic improvements. The process of
intercepting new residents and encouraging them to use
transit is a long term process, an-investment likely to make
future bus service more economical to operate as well as
save new residents money. When residents are forced to buy
additional cars, then investment commitments thwart the long-
range feasibility of transit service.
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175
1.S
1.0
0-5
-025
Min, Max.
Reduced Parking Space*
Reduced Traffic Congestion
School Transportation
Occasional User
Income from Improved Jobs
Driving and Parking
Substitute
Second Car Substitute
Cost Benefit
System
fcffs&j Community Benefits
P" I User Benefit
Figure 6-1. Express Service, Benefit Versus Cost
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Table 6-5. Annual Express Bus Benefit/Cost Comparison
Benefit Category
Second Car Substi-
tute
Driving and Parking
Substitute
Additional Income
from Improved Job
Occasional User
School Transportation
Savings
LOM From Additional
Time on Bui
Reduced Number of
Perking Spaces
Reduced Traffic
Congestion
Total Benefits
Total Capital and
Operating Costs'0'
Benefit/Cost Ratio
Benefit
Measure
$500-1, 100/rider
S300-600/rider
S 1 ,000/rider outbound
53,000/rider inbound
SIO-20/work rider
S0.75-l.50/
non-work rider
S500-1 ,000/rider
S65-75/rider
S150/space
SU-18/commurer
Number
Benefiting
335/doy
335/doy
25-50/doy
50-100/doy
6,000/yeor
70, 000/year
25-50/doy
950/doy
300-350/day
13,300/day
Annual Benefit
(in thousands)
SI70
100
25
155
60
50
10
(S70
45
190
S735
- $370
- 200
- 50
- 300
- 120
- 105
- 50
- 60)
- 55
- 240
-SI, 430
$660 -S 660
(a) Assuming six-minute headways and night and
Sunday service
1.1
2.2
Source: See Appendix C
The express bus benefit/cost comparison supports initiation
of service, particularly from the standpoint of the bus user
and the commuter. Greatest benefit would accrue to those
persons who use the bus to reduce automobile ownership
costs. Since the commuter represents about one-quarter of
the Valley labor force, benefits may be assumed to reach at
least that portion of all households.
2, Local Bus Benefits
Nine categories of quantifiable local bus benefits were
identified. Six of the categories - substitution for being
driven to work, second car substitute, driving and parking
substitute, additional income from improved job, occasional
usage, and school transportation savings - benefit the local
bus user. A seventh category of negative benefits - loss from
additional travel time by bus - must be subtracted from bus
user benefits. Two other categories - reduced number of parking
spaces and reduced welfare transportation costs - benefit the
community-at-large.
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Table 6-6 and Figure 6-2 compare local .bus benefits and costs.
Total quantifiable benefits ranged from 0 to 10 per cent of
costs for 20-minute service on Systems I or II, to 1 to 20
percent of costs for 60-minute service on Systems III or IV,
Indicating a more favorable benefit/cost ratio for less exten-
sive routing patterns with less frequent bus headways. In
no case did benefit/cost analysis indicate quantifiable benefits
from the local transit system would exceed costs.
2.5
2.0
1.5
u> 1.0
.2
"5
Q
00.5
-------
Table 6-6. Annual Local Bus Benefit/Cost Comparison
Gsnefi* CcVgory
Swb-.litu.'e for Kiis n' Ride
or Ride to Work
Second Cor Substitute
Dnvi.irj/f-arKing Substitute
Additional Income from
'ir.prcvcd Job
Ccccsior.il Lfctr
Scr.pcl Tror.-,portof!on
Savings
Lei', fron Additional
Time by 3us
Rec'cced Number of Parking
Spaces
RodjCjd V/e!fore Transpor-
tation Costs
Total Benefits
Operating Cost
Bcnsr'ir/Cos.r 2afio
Maximum Annual
Benefit
Syltem
(in thousands)
i
(20-minuto service)
$ 28-
14 -
5 -
15 -
53 -
6 -
(141 -
!6 -
10-
$ 6-
$2,500
0 -0.1
50
23
10
30
210
41
155)
19
20
253
Minimum Annual
Benefit (in thousands)
System IV
(60-minufs service)
S14 - 23
6 - 11
2 - 5
8-15
27-116
2-12
(66 - 72)
5-7
10-20
$ 8 - 137
$650
0-0.2
Source: See Appendix C
3. Other Benefits
Not all benefits derived from a transit system can be realis-
tically quantified in monetary terms. The following para-
graphs discuss other economic benefits which might be attributed
to bus transportation for the Valley.
Increased shopping opportunities for residents. Transit
will provide transportation for residents who now must limit
their shopping to specific stores, items, or services be-
cause of restricted mobility. Transit may expand accessi-
bility and the opportunity for choice -- to take advantage
of sales and greater variety of goods and services.
t Increased labor market for local employers. Several Valley
employers have been concerned with how to fill selected,
lower-salaried positions. The Lawrence Radiation Laboratory,
Sandia Corporation, Hexcel, Veterans Administration Hospital,
and the Valley Memorial Hospital specifically mentioned such
recruiting problems in interviews held during the course of
study.
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0 Bus service may reduce welfare costs by (a) providing
access to more job opportunities for persons without auto-
mobiles, and (b) reducing the amount of transportation
subsidy presently required. The Alameda County Welfare
case load attributable to the Livermbre-Amador Valley
accounts for $3,000,000 expenditures annually, including
administration and case-worker salaries and expenses.
t Interstate 580 is a major commercial trucking corridor.
Reduction of peak-period congestion can result in trucking
cost savings.
4. Social Benefits
Transit is generally recognized to offer opportunities for
social and environmental benefits which may justify selection
of a particular transit alternative. Although social benefits
are attributable to both the express and local bus systems,
evaluation of potential benefits is more crucial to selection
of a local system. On the basis of the benefit/cost analysis,
alternative local bus systems do not generate sufficient
economic savings to offset projected costs; however, considera-
tion of social benefits indicates considerable benefit would
accrue from the local system.
Although local bus service would be expected to serve only 1
percent of all trips in the Valley if it were instituted,
these trips are made predominantly by persons with limited or
restricted mobility. Public transit is desperately needed in
the Valley as a means of transportation for these persons.
Those who are unable to drive (senior citizens, young people,
handicapped, or others without driver licenses), those who
have no automobile at their disposal, and those who cannot
afford to own and operate a vehicle would be principal users
and beneficiaries of transit service. Public transportation
in the community would offer these citizens opportunity for
mobility and remove barriers which isolate or restrict their
opportunities for participation and sharing in society's
experiences.
Review of Valley demographic characteristics revealed that the
mobility afforded by transit would primarily benefit the
following non-mutually exclusive groups:
Approximately 800 Valley families without an automobile,
either because they cannot afford one or because no family
member has an operator's license.
t About 19,000 youngsters too young to obtain a driver's
license.
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An estimated 6,000 residents of driving age who have no
licenses.
About 3,400 senior citizens, many of whom are not physically
able to drive.
t Approximately 5,500 persons in families earning less than
$3000 in 1967.
These groups constitute a sizable segment of the Valley popula-
tion. A bus system could provide increased opportunities to
get to recreation centers, employment, doctors, day-care
centers, shopping areas and to visit friends without depend-
ence on friends or relatives for transportation.
The plight of the senior citizen and low income family is of
particular concern to Americans today. Frequently senior
residents who have lived their lives in the community and
who own their homes and otherwise face a pleasant retirement
suddenly find themselves physically unable to drive and unable
to get around in the automobile-oriented community. The pros-
pects of having to sell their home, relocate in new surround-
ings to be close enough to walk to essentialy services and
being cut off from the greater accessibility they once had
with the automobile is a significant readjustment. Some
choose to relocate in other communities where a full range of
shopping* recreational, health care and other opportunities
are accessible by public transportation. Local transit service
might eliminate the need for senior citizens to make such major
adjustments at a point in their lives when relocation usually
does not come easily.
Lower-income families, including a large number of elderly
persons on fixed retirement incomes, are continually handi-
capped by the high costs of-transportation associated with the
automobile. These families are often compelled to pay in-
ordinate shares of their limited budgets for automobile owner-
ship and operation thereby restricting the sum available for
housing, health care, and other services essential to the well-
being of the family. High automobile costs also limit the
lower-income family's ability to take advantage of the full
range of shopping opportunities, employment opportunities,
and housing choice. Better transportation could reduce trans-
portation costs for lower-income families, permitting them to
allocate a greater share of their budgets to housing, health
care, etc. and to choose consumer goods, jobs, and housing
from an expanded market place.
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Comparisons among the bus plan alternatives reveal a definite
optimum level of service for meeting the needs of senior
citizens, lower-income families and other limited-mobility
persons. Table 6-7 indicates how the extent of bus coverage
critically affects the percentage of captive-rider residences
and trip destinations served. With the few bus routes pro-
vided in System IV, it is not possible to serve most of the
residences and destinations. When the number of bus routes is
increased to the level of System III, however, service to
limited mobility groups is substantially improved. The in-
creased number of bus routes provided by System I and II does
not offer greatly improved coverage of the community and hence,
does not significantly improve service to senior citizens and
lower-income families. Therefore, System III appears to be
the most effective system for meeting needs of limited-mobility
groups.
Sixty-minute headways are recommended rather than 30-minute
service for two principal reasons: (1) the patronage increase
associated with the 30-minute service does not indicate in-
creased benefits would be proportionate to increased costs;
and (2) review of the requirements of the principal transit
user groups indicates less frequent service will meet mobility
objectives reasonably well for substantially less cost. Local
transit usage will constitute only 1 percent of all trips made
locally. It is economically infeasible to operate at 5- to
10-minute bus headways necessary to make measurable inroads
on automobile ridership. Consequently, the predominant riders
of the local bus system will be those unable to drive because
of age, health, or lack of a driver's license or an auto-
mobile at their disposal. Discussions with Valley public
officials, recreation departments, senior citizens organiza-
tions, major employers, and members of the League of Women
Voters indicate that, however desirable a 30-minute service
might be, reduction to 60-minute service will not impair
utility of transit service. Also, other factors such as just
having some bus service available, being able to get where
you want to go, coverage of the community, and adherence to
schedule are more important concerns of the potential users.
General experience in the transit industry indicates about a
20 percent difference in patronage due to a 30-minute versus
a 60-minute bus headway in low-density areas. Twenty percent
increase in patronage and resulting revenue is far over-
shadowed by a 100 percent increase in cost to provide 30-
minute service. Discussion with community groups indicates
no major difference between social benefits derived from 30-
and 60-minute service. Initiation of a basic minimum level
of local tansit service would produce greatest benefit.
Sixty-minute headways on System III will be the most cost-
effective way to meet the objective of assisting persons with
restricted mobility.
-210-
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Table 6-7. Comparison of Social Benefits from Local Transit Service Alternatives
r-o
Trcr.sit Service
System F.-eqoe-.cy
! 60 .Viln-tes
II 60 Minutes
III 60 Minutes
30 A.'.inures
IV oOrV.i.ijtes
Per Cent Served ;
Study Area
Population
77
72
60
50
45
30A/.ir.utc5 ! 45
20 r/inu!es j 45
id As rnecsjrei: by rent levc-l.
''-', ir.cl.'dss ce.-.;ers :";.-. stn:c.- .:.':izc-s, lower-inco-ne :.:rr.':\
(c) Percentc^c of ccprive riders cble :o i.;e transit to reach
Employees
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
ies, one ycufh .
their destination is the
tror.sit to cciivity cenrevs. Ai'^u.-nes that activity centers served are twice as 1:
Senior
Citizens
90-
90
90
90
60
60
60
product of accessibility
kely to be captive rider
Lower- Income
Families^
90
90
90
90
70
70
70
of transit to captive r
destinations cs centers
Activity
Center»(b)
95
95
90
90
60
60
60
ders ard accessibility
not served .
Coptive
Rid«rs'e'
90
90
85
85
50
50
50
of
: De Le^^, Ccrr
-------
The fundamental question concerning social benefits from
transit service is the extent to which Valley residents wish
to assist persons with restricted mobility. Results of the
employee survey at Lawrence Radiation Laboratory (LRL) and Sandia
Corporation indicate residents support public transportation
for all potential transit user groups, but particularly for
the elderly.
Percent Respondents
Believing Transit Needed
Potential Transit in the Valley for User
User Groups Group
LRL or Sandia employees 71
Elderly persons 81
School children 51
Lower-Income families 61
Housewives 54
Commuters into and out 7^
of Valley '6
The survey results were interpreted to indicate social con-
cern for transportation needs of senior citizens and belief
that transit would be effective for meeting needs of the
elderly. Strong support for public transportation to assist
employees and commuters was judged to be motivated primarily
by economic or environmental rather than social concerns,
although the use of bus service to get to work would make a
car available at home for midday trips by housewives or for
chauffeuring children.
5. Environmental Benefits
Reduced automobile usage, reduced air pollution, and ability
to structure urban growth and thereby retain cultural and
environmental amenities-are benefits frequently ascribed to
urban transit systems. The ability to make inroads on the
automobile and to structure urban growth are definitely with-
in the capability of regional rapid transit systems, but the
degree to which such benefits can be attributed to bus systems
or bus systems working in combination with rapid transit
demands further investigation.
Although air pollution is a major concern to the San Francisco
Bay Area region and particularly to Valley residents, monetary
value attributable to reduced air pollution cannot be reliably
quantified. Table 6-8 indicates reduction in major air con-
taminants which might be expected with express bus service.
A 3 percent reduction in commuter vehicle usage in and out
of the Valley yields about 1 percent reduction in the total
vehicle miles drive in the Valley and at least a 1 percent
-212-
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Table 6-8. Express Bus Operations Annual Reduction in Air Pollution
Pollution
Contaminant Description
Organic Goiei Enters into photo-
chemical process to
form smog
Nitrogen Oxides Enters info phofo-
(cs NO.) chemical process
to form smog
Carbon Monoxide Poisonous in quantity
i
i Porficulates Visible Particles
Sulfur Dioxide Offensive small; affects
plants in quantity
Decreased Automobile Pollution
1970 Gasoline Contaminants
Emission Eliminated
(pounds/1,000 Annually(°)
gallons fuel) (pounds)
378 124,000
158 52,000
2,070 677,000
12.4 4,100
7.3 2,500
Bus Pollution Contributed
1970 Diesel Contaminants
Emission Added , ,
(pounds/1,000 Annually(b;
gallons fuel) (pounds)
20 2, 000
120 12,000
30 3,000
184 18,400
50 5,000
Net Annual
Cncnce in
Contaminant*
(pounds)
122, 000 decrease
4 0,000 decrease
647, 000 de crease
14,300 increase
2,500 increase
(o) Based on 4,900,000 vehicle miles eliminated by express bus service (estimated annual patronage times average trip length of 10 miles) and on average
fuel consumption of 15 miles per gallon. Assumed vehicle occupancy was 1 .0. No adjustment was made in pollution due to reduced traffic congestion.
(b) Bcsed on 500,000 annual bus miles and an average fuel consumption of 5 miles per gallon.
Source: Boy Area Air Pollution Control District
I
r\>
OJ
-------
reduction in pollution created by motor vehicles. (Reduction
in air pollution was assumed to be proportional to the reduc-
tion in miles driven although traffic congestion decrease
could decrease pollution more than the reduced mileage would
indicate.) When this reduction is grouped with effects of
other pollution sources besides the automobile and viewed on
a metropolitan basis, the net effect of express bus service
on air pollution would be minimal.
It is doubtful whether the express bus system would signifi-
cantly influence land development along prescribed routes.
The existence of express routes may encourage new Valley
residents to locate within walking distance of the routes to
take advantage of commute bus opportunities. This, in turn,
might encourage developers to locate apartments near express
bus stops -- particularly near central terminals with frequent
peak-hour bus service -- to capture the young commuter market.
However, potential impact of the express bus system on the
structure of the overall community would not be great.
Reducing automobile usage and air pollution and structuring
urban growth were found to be outside the capability of any
of the conventional local transit alternatives. Each alterna-
tive bus system would only be able to attract 1 percent of all
local trips which is insufficient to accomplish the indicated
objectives. Without very frequent bus headways and extensive
route coverage (which are outside the financial capability
of the Valley), without a higher density of land development
than the Valley now has, or without introduction of rapid
transit to the Valley, regularly-scheduled public transit
alternatives would not effectively reduce automobile dominance
or influence the form of urban growth. The Valley consists
of single-family homes on relatively large lots. Traffic
patterns are dispersed with shopping, employment, recreation
and other activities spread over the entire community.
Community facilities, homes, and places of employment are
not clustered in a pattern which is conducive to conventional
transit service. The scattered locations of the Veterans
Administration Hospital, Springtown Retirement Village and
the proposed South County Campus of Chabot College are
illustrative examples; all attest to decisions which favor
and reinforce automobile use and make public transportation
service difficult to provide economically. For the present
and foreseeable dispersed pattern of Valley development,
regularly scheduled bus service may eliminate total dependence
on the automobile, but it will not achieve significant replace-
ment or substitution for private vehicles.
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6.6 REFERENCES
6-1. Automobile Manufacturers Associates, Inc. Economics
Research Department, "1971 Automobile Facts and
Figures," 1972.
6-2. M. Wachs (ed.), "The Feasibility of Fare-Free Transit for
Los Angeles (Preliminary Draft)," University of California,
Los Angeles, 1973.
6-3. J. K. Markowitz, "Transportation Needs of the Elderly,"
Traffic Quarterly. April 1971.
6-4. L. Lee, et al., "Smog - A Report to the People,"
Environmental Quality Laboratory, California Institute
of Technology, Pasadena, California, 1972.
6-5. W. T. Mikolowsky, "The Motor Vehicle Emission and Cost
Model (HOVEC): Model Description and Illustrative Applications -
Additional Controls for Mobile Sources in Report No. WN-8142-SD,
Santa Monica, California, February 1973.
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7.0 GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS AND TRANSPORTATION FUNDING
MECHANISMS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
Among the most Important factors to be considered 1n the development
and implementation of any proposed control measures are the institutional
constraints. As 1n any large metropolitan area, there are a multiplicity
of agencies and layers of government which will be impacted directly by
many of the contemplated controls. For the proposed control strategy
to be successfully implemented, it will be essential to enlist the coopera-
tion of the many agencies involved. A necessary first step is therefore
an understanding of government organization within the Bay Area, especially
as it relates to transportation planning and services.
This chapter attempts to briefly outline what agencies are involved
in providing transportation planning and services, what the function and
purpose of the agencies are, and how the various agencies are related in
the overall governmental organization. In addition, a discussion is
made of transportation funding mechanisms within the Bay Area. As dis-
cussed previously, several of the control measures evaluated which incor-
porate significant improvements in public transit -- additional buses or
lowered fares -- will require additional sources of revenue. It is un-
certain at this time where such additional funds could be obtained, if
they could be obtained at all. It is certainly recommended that these
questions be adequately addressed before embarking on measures which are
technically feasible but which may be institutionally or financially
difficult to implement.
7.1 REGIONAL AGENCIES
The Bay Area has been experimenting with regional government for
almost 30 years. Though probably further along in the development of
regional government than most areas of the country, many local political
obstacles and conflicts must be resolved before total regional govern-
ment becomes a reality. The following is a rudimentary list of agencies
and organizations that should be dealt with when considering trans-
portation control measures for the Bay Area.
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Bay Area Council (BAG) - Formed in 1945, the BAG is a highly
influential voluntary organization supported by business and
industry, and leaders in government, civil affairs, labor, and
education. The Council concerns itself with regional matters
including transportation, land use planning, air and water pol-
lution control, recreational development, and economic advance-
ment. BAG facilitates these concerns by gathering coordinated
statistical data, developing informational publications, and
lobbying at the State and local level. The BAG was instrumental
in persuading the State Legislature to establish the Bay Area
Air Pollution Control District (BAAPCD) in 1955 and the Bay Area
Rapid Transit District (BART) in 1957.
Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) - ABAG, formed in
1961, is a voluntary association representing the approximately
125 city and county governments of the nine county Bay Area.
The organization has no formal powers except to review applica-
tions for federal funds for consistency with regional plans (A 95
review process), but it is generally recognized as the Bay Area's
comprehensive planning agency.
San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC)
In 1965, BCDC was established by the California Legislature
(McAteer-Petris Act). The BCDC has the legal power to grant or
deny permits to fill or dredge the Bay, or develop the shoreline
within 100 feet of the water's edge.
Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) - In 1970 the legis-
lature established the MTC as the Bay Area regional transporta-
tion planning agency. Its first task is to prepare a regional
transportation plan which is due to be adopted by June 30, 1973.
Once the plan is adopted, MTC will have the authority to review
and approve new transbay bridges (with the exception of the
Dumbarton Bridge), and public multi-county rapid transit system,
and any state highway construction in the region. Furthermore,
any transportation project or operation using federal or state
-217-
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REVENUES $2,834 million
EXPENDITURES $2,807 million
OTHER
29
FUND
RESERVES
128
TOLLS
55
UMTA
136
SALES TAX
(1/2XTEMP)
96
TRANSIT
AID PROGRAM
(SB 325) 469
PROPERTY
TAXES
964
OPERATIONS
957
CAPITAL
(including
debt
service)
953
OPERATIONS
1,854
Source: MTC Regional Transportation Plan, Section IV
Figure 7-1. Bay Area Public Transit Funds for Existing
and Committed Systems (1974-1983)
-218-
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LOCAL
FUNDS
$954
mil 1 1 on
STATE
HIGHWAY
FUNDS
$1.4
billion
$593
million
$563
mi 11i on
LOCAL ROADS
$361 million
LOCAL TRANS-
PORTATION FUNDS
$1,156 million
(Maximum dis-
cretionary
funds for
local options)
STATE HIGHWAY
PROJECTS
$831 million
TOTAL FUNDS AVAILABLE FROM ALL HIGHWAY SOURCES: $2.35 BILLION (1974-1983)
Source: MTC Regional Transportation Plan, Section IV
Figure 7-2. Bay Area Highway Funds with Potential
Discretionary Funds
-219-
-------
funds must be found compatible with the regional transportation
plan. In 1971 the legislature authorized MTC to review public
transit projects financed by the state gasoline tax, even before
adoption of the regional plan (i.e., SB 325 monies). Even though
ABAG has full review power over federal transportation grants,
it has agreed to consult MTC in reviewing applications.
Figures 7-1 and 7-2, taken from Section IV, "Financial Plan and
Priorities Program," of the proposed MTC regional plan, illustrates how
the financial plan is geared towards public transportation. The MTC is
committed to reducing the region's dependence upon the automobile and
hence VMT. However, the planning time horizon for the MTC is 1985 rather
than EPA's 1975. It should also be recognized that the MTC is strictly
a planning agency; it does not get involved in any operational functions.
7.2 SUB-REGIONAL AND LOCAL TRANSPORTATION OPERATORS
A variety of sub-regional and local transportation agencies, both
public and private, operate within the Bay Area. These agencies, their
responsibilities and operations, are summarized below:
7.2.1 Public Agencies
t Division of Bay Toll Crossings (BTC) - This state agency is
responsible for operations of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay
Bridge, San Mateo Bridge, and Dumbarton Bridge. Tolls generated
from these bridges go towards paying off deep on these bridges
plus the BART transbay tube and the new Dumbarton Bridge (if
built).
t Carquinex Bridges (2) - The governmental organization for the
bridge is similar to BTC. It is also noted that the Richmond-
San Rafael Bridge is presently strictly a state bridge.
t BART - BART is comprised of a 75 mile rail rapid transit system
serving the counties of San Francisco, Alameda, and Contra
Costa. The system is projected to be fully operational by
-220-
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September 1973. Revenues are projected to meet operating
expenses. Other sources of capital and operating funds
include:
1) SB 325 (Deddeh-Mills Alquist Bill) - approximately 25 percent
of San Francisco County's allocation and 50 percent of
Alameda and Contra Costa Counties' allocation,
2) Division of Bay Toll Crossing (tube construction),
3) General obligation bonds supported by property taxes in
the three counties ($.25 per $100 assessed valuation),
4) Sales Tax Revenue Bonds (1/2 percent in affected counties),
and
5) Federal and state transportation grants for capital con-
struction.
San Francisco Municipal Railway (Muni) - Rail and bus transit
for the City and County of San Francisco. Operating 50 percent
from the fare box, 50 percent from property taxes, and SB 325.
Costs of maintaining the electrical system for streetcars and
trolley coaches is underwritten by Hetch Hetchy, the City's
power and water agency.
Golden Gate Bridge/Highway and Transportation District (6GBHTD) -
The district has been given authority by the legislature to
operate and control all transportation across the Golden Gate
between San Francisco and district counties to the north. The
district presently meets operating expenses for services
between San Francisco and other counties from revenues from
the bridge, buses and ferries although only the bridge makes
money. The district operates buses in three Bay Area counties--
Marin, Sonoma, and San Francisco. The GGBHTD recently proposed
to raise auto and transit tolls to support the bus and ferry
system. The issue has yet to be resolved but it appears that
public opposition exists to raising both tolls and fares. The
district also operates intra-county service in Marin County
under agreement with Marin County Transit District. Local
transit services are underwritten by a 5 cent property tax
and SB 325 funds.
-221-
-------
The district presently meets operating expenses for service
between San Francisco and other Counties from revenues from
the bridge, buses and ferries although only the Bridge makes
money.
Alameda-Contra Costa County Transit District (AC Transit) -
Bus transit system serving Alameda and Contra-Costa counties
west of the East Bay Hills. Presently operating extensive
transbay service (i.e., until BART starts transbay service).
Revenues are derived from about one third taxes and two thirds
from fare box and other operating revenues.
t Santa Clara County Transit District - Commenced operations
January 1, 1973, taking over former San Jose and Palo Alto
transit operations. An expansion is planned. Farebox and
SB 325 underwrite operating cost; no local tax support is
possible under existing District enabling legislation.
San Mateo, Napa, Sonoma, and Solano Counties - All these
counties are planning for local (intra-city, possibly
county-wide) transit (primarily bus) systems in the future.
They will probably raise operating revenue from SB 325,
the farebox, and perhaps a small local property tax.
In 1972, approximately $150 million was spent for operating public
transportation in the Bay Area. Of this amount, approximately one half
came from the fare box and the other half was raised from taxes and use
of reserves.
7.2.2 Private Agencies
Southern Pacific Railroad (SPR) - The SPR loses about $4 million
on commuter service annually and shows little interest in
making it profitable. A great deal of controversy centers
around whether BART should be extended down the Peninsula or
whether the Southern Pacific service should be upgraded.
-222-
-------
t Greyhound Bus Company - Greyhound presently operates transbay,
Vallejo and Peninsula service on a commuter basis. The trans-
bay service will be terminated when BART becomes fully operational.
7.3 BAY AREA TRANSPORTATION FUNDING MECHANISMS
At the present time, transportation in the Bay Area is one of the
most advanced multi-modal systems in the country. The current transportation
plan for the Bay Area has been estimated to cost $12 billion to construct
and about $5000 million per year to operate by 1990. Though the Bay Area
has yet to institute a regional transportation operating agency (and may
never do so), the MTC is the regional transportation planning agency.
As mentioned previously, the MTC's authorizing legislation required
it to write a regional transportation plan and submit it to the appropriate
executive branch (probably the new California Department of Transportation)
by June 30, 1973. One of the sections of the MTC's plan directly
addresses the sources and uses of transportation funds for the Bay Area.
The remainder of this discussion will be a summary of Section IV,
"Financial Plan and Priorities Program" of the MTC proposed Bay Area
Regional Transportation Plan.
7.3.1 Sources of Revenue (1974 to 1983)
Sources of revenue for transportation in the Bay Area are as follows:
Federal-State Highway Funds - The total California highway
funds are estimated to be as follows:
Vehicle registration fees $ 960 million
Fuel tax . 9,168
Federal aid 5.400
Ten Year Total $15,528 million
Historically, the Bay Area has received approximately 15 percent
of this total. Thus, about $2.35 billion will be available from
highway funds. Figure 7-2, shown previously, indicates the
funds and their potential distribution to local transportation
-223-
-------
options. $1,192 million is available exclusively for road
purposes and no more than $1,156 million could become available
for discretionary use from federal aid and local support.
t Bay Area Bridge Tolls (not including Richmond-San Rafael Bridge)
After meeting all other obligations net $55,000,000.
Transit Revenue
Transit Aid Program (SB 325) $ 468.8 Million
Property Tax Funding 963.8
Sales Tax (Currently BART only qfi c
and through 1976 only) D'°
Operations 967
Federal Transit Aid - Urban Mass -j^g
Transportation Administration (UMTA)
Local Funding Reserves 128
Other 29
Additional Potential Sources of Transit Revenue
Double Bridge Tolls $ 348.6 Million
Transit Fare Increase (e.g., j-nc c
double fare)
Sales Tax (all counties Q7fi ft
@ 1/2 percent)
Property Tax (all counties @ $.25 521 5
per $100 assessed valuation)
One Cent/Gallon Gas Tax 261.9
Federal Aid - Potential UMTA Funds 588
Bonding - Bridge Tolls 180-290
- General Obligation on 77Q
Property Tax
- Revenue Bonds
a) Sales Tax 1,235
b) Gas Tax 360
-224-
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7.3.2 Uses of Revenues
Revenue for the Bay Area is used as follows:
Present Commitments and Existing Systems
A. Highways $ 1,330 Million
B. Public Transit
1. Operations 1,854
2. Capital (including debt g53
service)
Proposed Additional Needs
Local Service Ten Year Total
Operating Deficit 333 Million
Capital Costs 160
LOCAL TOTAL 493
Trunkline Transit
Operating Deficit 256 Million
Capital Costs 1,540*
TRUNKLINE TOTAL .. 1 ,796
COMBINED TOTAL $2.3 Billion
*Total to 1983. Grand total for 1990 estimated at
$4,780 million
-225-
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8.0 STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION
This section deals with the implementation of the control strategy
proposed in this report. Discussion is confined to two areas: the pro-
cedure and time schedule for implementation of the strategy and the
responsibilities of the government agencies which will be involved in the
implementation of the proposed strategy.
8.1 PROCEDURE AND TIME SCHEDULE
The proposed time schedule for implementation of the control strategy
is given in Table 8-1. The dates shown for promulgation of the plan are
those prescribed by federal law. Legislative authority for the recommended
Phase I measures must be obtained by the end of 1973; gasoline rationing
legislation should be obtained by the end of 1975.
As the table indicates, all gasoline marketing facilities should be
controlled to the extent recommended by mid-1975. That is, existing facili-
ties should be retrofit with appropriate control systems by that date, and
all new facilities built after that date should be required to include con-
trol systems in their construction.
A development program for substitutes for organic surface coating com-
pounds is currently underway and should be continued indefinitely. The
use of less reactive substitutes should be expanded, beginning in 1974.
Carbon absorption systems effective to the degree recommended in this
study are currently available and should be installed at all dry cleaning
establishments during 1974. Likewise, available substitutes for organic
degreasers should be implemented during 1974. Burning regulation, to some
degree, has already been instituted by the county APCS's. The additional
regulation recommended in this study should be in effect through 1980.
The three vehicle-oriented control measures are mandatory inspection/
maintenance, oxidizing catalytic converter, and pre-1966 retrofit device.
The first part of the inspection/maintenance program, the idle test with
the 10 percent rejection rate, should be carried out during 1975 and 1976.
This means that all light duty vehicles should be inspected (and 10 percent
should be maintained) during the year 1975 and again during 1976. In 1977
-226-
-------
Table 8-1. Proposed Implementation Time Schedule
ro
INi
-si
i
Element
Promulgation of Control Strategy Plan
Proposed Control Strategy Plan
Public Hearings on Plan; Heview and Evaluation of
Comments
Promulgation of Final Control Strategy Plan
(15 August 1973)
Legislative Authority Required for Controls
California Air Resources Board
Obtain enabling legislation for inspection of
maintenance
Obtain enabling legislation for additional
retrofit devices, e.g. catalytic converters
Obtain enabling legislation to ration gasoline
Phase I Measures (Recofimeoded)
Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Controls
Establish necessary regulations
Initiate program of controlling losses fro»
gasoline marketing
All marketing facilities controlled
Organic Surface Coating Substitution
Development of alternatives (e.g..water-based
or high solid control formulation)
Expand use of less reactive substitutes
Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
Implement Carbon Absorption Systems
Oegreaser Substitution
Implement substitution
1973
1974
1975
1976
"
1977
1978
1979
1980
-------
Table 8-1. Proposed Implementation Time Schedule (Continued)
no
ro
oo
Element
Burning Regulation
Agricultural
Lumber
e Incineration
Aircraft Emission Control
e Establish necessary regulations
Modified Ground Operations Required
Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Program Design
Program Preparation
Mandatory Idle Emission Inspection
' Mandatory Loaded Emission Inspection
Ox1d1z1m Catalytic Converter
Installation Program
Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Installation Program
Mass Transit Program.
Improve levels of service
t Establish bus and carpool lanes on freeways
where feasible
e Establish park-and-rlde facilities where
feasible
e Institute parking controls
-------
Table 8-1. Proposed Implementation Time Schedule (Continued)
Element
Phase lj^ Measures (If demonstrable warranted)
Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Eliminating Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
Heavy Duty Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance
Heavy Duty Vehicle Retrofit
Light Duty Vehicle Evaporative Retrofit
VrTT Reduction through Gasol Int Rationing
ro
10
i
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
-------
and every year thereafter, all light duty vehicles could be inspected using
a loaded test, and 50 percent of them should be required to receive main-
tenance. The installation of the oxidizing catalytic converter should take
place between mid-1974 and mid-1975. The pre-1966 retrofit device should
be installed during 1974.
The transportation system-oriented measures recommended for implemen-
tation should begin in 1974 and continue through 1980. It is recommended
that an aggressive public information program be instituted in 1974 to
encourage and advertise increased use of carpooling. Carpooling should be
corrdinated among employees at work centers beginning in mid-1974. Con-
struction of parking facilities should be limited as soon as possible, prefer-
ably by the end of 1973. Long-term parking rates should be increased by the
middle of 1974.
All Phase II measures should be implemented by 1977 if it is demon-
strated that they can be effective and that they are necessary. The elim-
ination of motorcycle use during smog season and gasoline rationing involve
relatively difficult institutional and administrative problems and should
be begun in 1976 so that these kinds of problems are obviated by 1977 for
maximum effectiveness of the measures in that year.
8.2 AGENCY INVOLVEMENT
Table 8-2 gives the agency responsible for the implementation of each
of the control measures recommended in this study. The sections of the
California Health and Safety Code which provide the respective agencies
with the authority for implementation of the measures are listed in the
table also. It can be observed that the county APCD's have the authority
to implement all recommended stationary source controls. All that remains
in each case is for the Air Pollution Control Board of each agency to pass
or modify appropriate rules and regulations for use within each of the
counties.
Vehicle-oriented mobile source controls, on the other hand, require
new legislation, with the one exception being the pre-1966 retrofit device.
This device is already required in San Francisco. Effective devices of
this type have, of course, been accredited by the CARB.
-230-
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Table 8-2. Agency Responsibility for Control Measure Implementation
Measure
Responsible
Agency
Authorizing
Legislation
(Sections of
California Health
and Safety Code)
Phase I
Stationary Source Controls:
Gasoline marketing evaporative
loss control
Dry cleaning vapor control
Degreaser substitution
Organic surface coating control
Mobile Source Controls:
Mandatory inspection/maintenance
Oxidizing catalytic converter
Pre-1966 retrofit device
Transportation System Controls and
Improvements
Phase II
Stationary Source Controls:
Additional organic solvent use
controls
Mobile Source Controls:
Eliminating motorcycle use during
smog season
Heavy duty vehicle inspection/
maintenance
Heavy duty vehicle retrofit
Gasoline rationing
Evaporative retrofit device
Additional retrofit devices
APCD
APCD
APCD
APCD
CARB
CARB/APCD
APCD
County/City
Government
APCD
CARB
CARB
CARB/APCD
CARB
CARB/APCD
CARB/APCD
24260, 24260.1
24260, 24260.1
24260, 24260.1
24260, 24260.1
TBL*
TBL*
24263.8
24260, 24260.1
TBL*
TBL*
TBL*
TBL*
TBL*
TBL*
To be legislated
-231-
-------
Authorizing legislation must be passed for the other two vehicle-
oriented measures. The CARB will be responsible for the mandatory inspection/
maintenance program, while, if the oxidizing catalytic converter is required
in only part of the APCD's of the state (as is likely), it will be the
responsibility of each APCD to implement necessary rules, and, therefore
all APCD's must have the authority by state law to implement the measure.
Thus, two types of legislation must be passed for implementation of the
catalytic converter measure: state legislative authority and APCD rules,
pending, of course, CARB accreditation of catalytic converter devices.
Transportation system controls and improvements in Phase I do not
involve the requirement for major-authorizing legislation. In each case,
it will require the appropriate division of the local city and county gov-
ernments to implement or modify regulations and to impose, where necessary,
procedural constraints and encouragements.
Stationary source measures in Phase II, as in Phase I, require no addi-
tional authorizing legislation. On the other hand, mobile source controls
in Phase II all must be legislated. All will likely be at least the partial
responsibility of the CARB, although like the catalytic converter, it is
likely that the legal requirement for the three retrofit measures in Phase II
will actually be the authority of each APCD and that each APCD will have the
responsibility, after accreditation of hardware by the CARB, to implement
the measures in its jurisdictional area. It is assumed for the present that
gasoline rationing will be within the authority of the CARB, although the
actual legal requirements of this controversial measure are vague.
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9.0 OBSTACLES TO IMPLEMENTATION
The relative significance of obstacles to implementation of the
proposed control strategy described in Section 8.0 has been estimated using
the following definitions of obstacle categories:
Technical obstacles - obstacles involving the design of
hardware, details of administrative procedure, or speci-
fication of standards or acceptance limits necessary
for implementing recommended control measures
Political obstacles - obstacles involving the feasibility
of productive interaction among appropriate leaders,
administrators, legislators, and special interest groups
for the purpose of instituting recommended control
measures.
Institutional obstacles - obstacles involving the opposition
of institutions required by the plan with those already
in existence and necessary adjustment thereof.
Legal obstacles - obstacles involving writing and passing
laws, rules, and regulations required for instituting and
administering control measures.
Socio-economic obstacles - obstacles involving the impact
of control measures on the public, commerce, and industry.
9.1 PHASE I MEASURES
9.1.1 Stationary Source Control Measures
9.1.1.1 Gasoline Marketing Evaporative Loss Control
This control may meet minor legislative and socio-economic obstacles.
Necessary laws and regulations are easily specified since there is a large
backlog of feasibility studies and investigations involving this measure
and since several APCD's in the state have already instituted requirements
for a similar measure and can serve as a model. There should be very little
socio-economic impact because of this measure. The cost of changes in
gasoline refining and marketing will indeed be passed on to the consumer,
but the actual cost increase per gallon should be small. Public conveni-
ence should be little affected; consequently, minimal adverse public reaction
is expected for this measure. The design and development of hardware for
evaporative control systems at the filling station and on tank trucks may
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be a moderate technical obstacle. These technical obstacles must be met
by the oil companies in California since it will be their responsibility
to select appropriate methods for meeting the proposed standards for gaso-
}
line evaporative control. As a result, their reaction to the proposal for
the evaporative emission control measure is expected to present a moderate
political obstacle to implementation.
9.1.1.2 Organic Surface Coating Substitution
This measure should encounter no political or institutional obstacles.
It will encounter some technical obstacles in that substitutes such as
water-based coatings, high solids content coatings, and powdered coatings
are currently under development and require lengthy testing before promising
formulas can be used commercially. A minor legal obstacle is anticipated
in writing rules which require the recommended degrees of control by 1975
and 1977. Small changes in the price of the product may create minor socio-
economic obstacles.
9.1.1.3 Dry Cleaning Vapor Control
The principle of carbon absorption has been proven a's an effective
means of controlling evaporative losses of solvents from dry cleaning, and
the required hardware is available. Thus, no technical obstacles are
anticipated. The local APCD's have the authority to implement such controls,
and no institutional obstacles are expected. The only legal obstacle to
overcome is the appropriate local rulemaking, and it should be minor. No
political or socio-economic obstacles are expected.
9.1.1.4 Degreaser Substitution
Acceptable non-reactive substitutes for current degreaser solvents
exist and should encounter no major obstacles to implementation by 1975.
Rulemaking may present a minor legal obstacle.
9.1.1.5 Burning Regulations
Burning restrictions have already been instituted to some degree, and
it is anticipated that more extensive regulation will not meet significant
obstacles.
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9.1.2 Mobile Source Control Measures
9.1.2.1 Aircraft Emission Controls
This control measure should encounter only minor political and socio-
economic obstacles; however, technical and institutional obstacles may be
more severe. The emission controls for new and in-use aircraft engines
will have major technical obstacles. The ground operation modification
elements of the measure may encounter moderate institutional obstacles
with FAA and the affected airport authorities. Negative responses by
pilots to the measure are not anticipated.
9.1.2.2 Mandatory Inspection/Maintenance
Part I - Idle Test, 10 Percent Rejection Rate. Part I of this measure is
technically simple and requires little more developmental or design effort
than has already gone into the random state lane inspection already in
existence in California. No institutional obstacles are anticipated since
the Department of Motor Vehicles can include inspection/maintenance certifi-
cation as part of vehicle registration requirements much as it does with
retrofit devices. Furthermore, this measure should encounter few legal
or political obstacles if a bill requiring inspection and maintenance in
the South Coast Air Basin (Assembly Bill 380) passes both houses and is
signed by the Governor. Legislation remains a potential obstacle since
four similar bills in 1972 and 1973 have not passed the legislature and
the administration. Socio-economic obstacles should be minor.
Part II - Loaded Test, 50 Percent Rejection Rate. Obstacles for Part II of
this measure will be similar in nature to those expected for Part I, but of
larger magnitude. This testing method is more involved and time-consuming
than the method in Part I and will require more effort directed toward
technical development, design, instrument assembly, and shelter construction,
Legal obstacles will consequently be significant, and socio-economic
obstacles will probably be greater because of the higher cost and greater
inconvenience for the vehicle owner.
9.1.2.3 Oxidizing Catalytic Converters
Major technical obstacles are involved in the implementation of this
retrofit measure by 1975. These obstacles are because of several technical
weaknesses in current catalytic converter designs. Further development and
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testing are required but would not be possible if implementation is to occur
by the required dates. The converters will be relatively easy to install,
but they must be replaced periodically (between 25,000 and 50,000 miles)
and unleaded fuel must be used. Furthermore, the converter is costly as
compared to other retrofit devices. For older vehicles, the converter is
as costly as compared to the value of the auto. As a result, major socio-
economic, political, and legal obstacles are anticipated for this measure.
9.1.2.4 Pre-1966 Retrofit Device
Since exhaust control devices incorporating vacuum spark advance dis-
connect are already required for these model years in the South Coast, San
Diego, and San Francisco Air Basins, this measure will not encounter any
significant obstacles to implementation. VSAD is neither costly or compli-
cated, but it is effective and should meet a minimum of social and political
opposition.
9.1.2.5 Mass Transit
Mass transit improvements should meet no institutional or legal obstacles,
but there will be significant technical, political and socio-economic diffi-
culties to be overcome. Technical obstacles will involve the system design
and fare structure of the improvements. Socio-economic obstacles will result
from the actual design of the system and the funding mechanism for its
institution. Political opposition will depend on how well and in what way
the other two major obstacles are met. The funding aspects are expected to
be the most controversial portions.
9.2 PHASE II MEASURES
9.2.1 Stationary Source Control Measures
9.2.1.1 Additional Organic Solvent Use Controls
Any additional controls on organic solvent use will encounter major
technical and political obstacles and at least minor institutional, legal,
and socio-economic obstacles.
9.2.2 Mobile Source Control Measures
9.2.2.1 Elimination of Motorcycle Use During Smog Season
This measure will encounter few technical obstacles, but political and
legal obstacles will be quite significant, considering the popularity of
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motorcycles in California (especially during the summer) and the poten-
tially significant political strength of motorcycle manufacturers and
enthusiasts. There will be moderate socio-economic obstacles because of
the recreational and personal values of motorcycle riding, and enforce-
ment will be an institutional problem.
9.2.2.2 Inspection/Maintenance and Retrofit Devicesfor HDV
Inspection/maintenance procedures for heavy duty vehicles have been
developed and tested in only a few areas of the country (New York State,
for example); the potential exists for major technical obstacles to imple-
mentation in California. Minor political, institutional, legal, and socio-
economic obstacles are also expected. Obstacles to implementation of a
retrofit program for heavy duty vehicles are expected to be very similar to
those described for inspection/maintenance.
9.2.2.3 Evaporative Retrofit Device
Major technical, political, legal, and socio-economic obstacles are
anticipated for implementation of an evaporative retrofit program. Although
devices for pre-1970 vehicles have not yet been developed, it is expected
that they will be costly compared to the value of the vehicle and that
installation will not be simple.
9.2.2.4 Gasoline Rationing
A large-scale VMT reduction through gasoline rationing would be
extremely difficult to implement. Since nearly everyone would be affected,
opposition can be expected on all fronts. Because of the potential severity
of the measure, the political, institutional, and socio-economic obstacles
will be so great that they are likely to force a re-evaluation of the overall
program objectives and constraints.
9.2.2.5 Additional Retrofit Measures
It is expected that additional retrofit measures beyond those specifi-
cally recommended in this study will encounter major technical, political,
institutional, legal, and socio-economic obstacles during implementation.
Most of these additional devices are not cost-effective for application in
this air basin and will meet significant opposition.
-237-
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APPENDIX A
AIR QUALITY DATA TRENDS, AND MONITORING STATIONS
Table A-l provides a breakdown of air quality violations as experienced
throughout the Bay Area during 1971 and 1972. These data illustrate the
wide differences in air quality experienced in the various regional areas.
The trend data for oxidant concentration in the San Francisco region is
presented in Table A-2. The data show significant improvements during the
most recent years. Figure A-l is a map of the air quality monitoring sites
currently taking air quality measurements within the region. Noted on the
map are the types of stations at each site, e.g. partial or complete.
A-l
-------
Table A-l. Air Pollution in the Bay Area (1971 - 1972)
Location of
Stations
San Francisco
San Rafael
Ri chmond
Pitts burg
Walnut Creek
Oakland
San Leandro
Fremont
Livermore
San Jose
Redwood City
Burlingame
Petal uma
Napa
Vallejo
Fairfield
Los Gatos
Mountain View
Santa Rosa
OXIDANT
1971
1 2
Maximum Violations
.19 2
.18 9
.28 7
.20 23
.23 36
.31 10
.36 21
.33 45
.23 52
.15 14
.28 17
.17 5
.12 6
.14 9
.19 11
.18 12
_ _
_ _
-
1972
Maximum Violations
.08 0
.17 5
.12 7
.19 25
.17 30
.12 1
.17 15
.34 44
.22 27
.20 19
.28 17
.14 8
.07 0
.18 20
.26 15
.13 4
.21 15
.19 10
- .
CARBON MONOXIDE
1971
Maximum Violations
11 3
8 0
13 1
6 0
. _
11 2
_ _
9 0
8 0
17 12
7 0
10 1
_
9 0
13 6
_ -
_
_
-
1972
Maximum Violations
11.7 1
7.7 0
9.1 0
5.1 0
- -
7.2 0
i
6.5 0
6.5 0
13.8 11
9.2 0
9.9 0
- -
7.4 0
12.1 5
-
- _
_
-
NITROGEN
DIOXIDE
1971
Annual
Average
.027
.024
.021
.022
-
.040
_
-
.025
.034
.030
-
.013
-
.018
-
-
-
.020
Highest hourly average in ppm
"Number of days one hour average of 0.10 ppm was exceeded
Highest 12-hour average in ppm
Number of days 12-hour average of 10 ppm was exceeded
Source: Bay Area Air Pollution Control District
-------
Table A-2. Average High Hour Oxidant Concentrations For Days
With Comparable Temperature and Inversion Conditions
(April Through October Oxidant Smog Seasons, 1962 to 1972)
Monitoring
Station
San Francisco
San Leandro
San Jose
Redwood City
Walnut Creek
San Rafael
BAAPCD
Average
Livermore*
1962
.14
.13
.11
.13
.10
.08
.12
-
1963
.12
.16
.17
.10
.11
.09
.12
-
1964
.15
.19
.14
.10
.10
.07
.13
-
Average
1965
.09
.19
.16
.14
.11
.08
.13
-
High-Hour
(Kl Parts
1966
.08
.14
.11
.10
.10
.07
.10
-
Oxidant
Per Mil
1967 1
.08
.12
.13
.09
.13
.07
.10
.13
Concentration
1 i on )
968 1969 'l
.05 .04
.11 .12
.13 .13
.08 .09
.10 .13
.06 .07
.09 .10
.18 .18
970
.07
.12
.12
.08
.09
.08
.09
.13
1971
.05
.11
.08
.07
.09
.07
.08
.11
1972
.03
.10
.10
.08
.09
.05
.08
.09
11 -year
Average
.08
.14
.12
.10
.TO
.07
.10
.14
I
oo
Station with 6 years of record
Source: Bay Area Air Pollution Control District
-------
MENDOCINO
Complete Station
A Partial Station
(Oxidant-COH)
Source: Bay Area Air Pollution
Control District
MONTEREY
Figure A-l. Bay Area Air Pollution Control District Monitoring Network
A-4
-------
APPENDIX B
PROJECTIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES AND GASOLINE CONSUMPTION
1. INTRODUCTION
Calculations and projections of air pollution emissions deperid on
data concerning motor vehicles and gasoline consumption (or VMT). An
evaluation of the available data disclosed that there were no well-
documented sources for such projections, consistent with the most recent
census data and latest population forecasts (B-l). The most recent pro-
jections of motor vehicle registrations provided by the California De- --
partment of Motor Vehicles is based on pre-1970 census data and is thus
outdated (B-2). They are currently updating their old projections to re-
flect the most recent census reports (B-3); however, their results were
unavailable for use in this study. It thus became necessary to establish
the necessary data base and project these critical variables. This ap-
pendix describes the methodology used and presents the results of the
analysis.
2. SPECIAL PROBLEMS IN DATA AVAILABILITY
Several problems arise in attempts to accurately forecast region
specific growth trends. Among the more critical problems is obtaining
adequate historical data compatible with and specific enough to the
region of interest. As an example, different agencies use varying
definitions for compiling data on motor vehicle classes, e.g., commercial and
trucks. These categories are frequently incompatible with those desired
for use in estimating pollutant emissions, e.g., light-duty and heavy-
duty vehicles. By necessity, therefore, projections were made using the
historical data available and then adjustments were made in the projected
data to reflect the desired categories for estimating emissions.
Gasoline consumption was projected by apportioning statewide consump-
tion figures to the regions of interest on the basis of population. Due
to the methods used to collect gasoline taxes, it is virtually impossible
B-l
-------
to get accurate estimates of gasoline consumption by air basin. The
estimates of gasoline consumption by region were not used directly in the
analysis to compute emissions; rather, they served mainly as a back-up
check on VMT estimates provided as computed by other methods.
3. METHOD OF ANALYSIS
Linear multiple-regression analysis was used to estimate several
equations, predicting various types of motor vehicles and gasoline con-
sumption. Multiple regression techniques allow estimation of a dependent
variable based on values for several independent variables. An equation
of the following form results.
y = c + a, x, + a2x2 + . . . +anxn
where
y = dependent variable
c = a constant (represents the term ax)
oo'
x1}...,xn = independent variables
a.|,...,an = coefficients
In the above formula, it is assumed that all x, ...,x are completely
i, n
independent. In studying social phenomena, however, a high degree of
interaction between variables is usually found. For example, population,
income, overall economic activity, and many other social trends vary to-
gether, especially when viewed over a considerable time period.
Using the multiple regression analysis, thirteen years of historical
data (1960-1972) were used to generate a set of regression equations
(See Table B-l). The historical data for each region included information on
1) population, 2) per capita income, 3) regional economic activity,
4) consumer price index, and 5) various motor vehicles (e.g., autos,
commercial, and motorcycles).
3.1 Population Projections (B-4, B-l)
The Population Research Unit of the California Department of Finance
provides projections of population in California by counties to the year
2000. Their projections are based on an assumed fertility of 2.45 births
per woman and a net migration of 150,000 annually into the state. This
B-2
-------
set of projections 1s commonly called the "D-150" set of projections, with
the "D" corresponding to the Bureau of the Census Series D projection of
growth and the "150" Indicating an overall gain of 150,000 migrants annually
into the state. Because of charges that projections frequently turn out to be
self-fulfilling prophecy, the Department of Finance also has compiled an
"E-0" set of population growth projections. This series of forecasts
assume a lower fertility rate (2.11 births per woman) and a net zero growth
from in-and-out migration statewide.
In view of the Implementation difficulties associated with a "no
growth" policy, 1t has been assumed for this analysis that the D-150 series
of projections are the most accurate. The California ARB also uses this
set of figures as the basis for their growth rates.
3.2 Per Capita Income and Regional Economic Activity (B-5)
Projections for these indices were extracted from the Standard Metro-
politan Statistical Areas (SMSA) summaries compiled by EPA and HUD.
3.3 Consumer Price Index (B-6)
The projected price indices for the region were provided by the Eco-
nomic Research Unit of the California Department of Finance. This was de-
termined by "averaging" the price index projections for San Francisco, Los
Angeles, and San Diego, since price Index information was not available for
other areas.
3.4 Motor Vehicle Projections (B-7, B-8)
The independent variables used to forecast motor vehicles were popula-
tion and adjusted per capita income. It has been well documented that eco-
nomic variables are very important in forecasting demand for goods and services
In the case of motor vehicles, it has been shown elsewhere that adjusted per
capita income is indeed a good indicator of future auto ownership. Intuitively
it is very reasonable that growth in motor vehicles is reflected by these
two variables population, to reflect the need for more cars, and per capita
income to reflect one's ability to buy cars.
B-3
-------
The linear multiple-regression approach for forecasting autos not only
allows economic variables to be considered, but It allows economic data
specific to the region to be considered. One would certainly expect regional
economic activity to be significant in an area's ability to purchase auto-
mobiles.
In a similar fashion, commercial vehicles (trucks), motorcycles, and
regional gasoline consumption were also projected. Commercial vehicles
were projected on the basis of population and total earnings for the region,
since commercial vehicles by definition, are used primarily for business
purposes and therefore are dependent on the economic activity of the region.
(Total earnings, which 1s the summation of all earnings for the majority
of the major industrial and commercial activity, is an accurate indicator
of commercial business trends.) Motorcycles were forecast using historical
trend data for adjusted per capita personal income. Since motorcycles
have traditionally been a luxury item rather than a necessity (except for a
small minority), Its population growth is dependent on increased buying
power. This is attested to by the fact that the majority of motorcycles
purchased are for recreational purposes rather than to serve basic trans-
portation needs.
Gasoline consumption was projected from the number of vehicles and
California Consumer Price Index. An increase in vehicles would imply more
consumption, just as changes 1n prices would be reflected in the demand
for gasoline. This is justified on the grounds that individuals are con-
scious of gasoline prices, both implicitly as they purchase autos which
give better gas mileage, and explicitly as they shop around for the lower-
priced gasoline stations.
B-4
-------
4. RESULTS OF THE MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS
The following regression equations developed for the San Francisco
o
area are accompanied by the coefficient of multiple determination (R )
and the tests of significance for each coefficient (t-score):
Automobiles = -1696710.8 + 0.85243 (population
R2 = 0.9590
t-score = 16.78
(per capita income was found to be not significant
for this variable)
Motorcycles = 241261.8 + 71.675 (per capita
income)
R2 = .9520
t-score = 15.45
Commercial Vehicles = 155976.5 - 0.12023 (population)
+65.5 (total earnings)
R2 = .9803
t-score = -3.15
(population) '
t-score = 8.26
(total earnings)
Gasoline Consumption = -456.88 + 0.00078 (no. of vehicles)
R2 = 9937 + 6'806 (Pr1ce index)
t-score = 9.16
(vehicles)
t-score
(price index)= 3.12
The resulting projections for all significant variables are presented in
Table B-l , together with the historical data used in the development of the
regression equations.
B-5
-------
Table B-l. San Francisco Bay Area Regression Analysis Results
Year
Price
Index
Per
Capita
Income
Population
Total
Earnings Gasoline
$ Millions Million Gal,
Auto
Registration
Commercial
Vehicles
Motorcycles
- Historical -
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1977
1980
88.2
89.3
90.5
91.9
93.5
95.4
97.4
100.0
104.1
109.3
114.9
119.1
123.1
137.8
144.5
154.7
3435
3550
3675
3815
3960
4110
4275
4430
4580
4690
4783
4880
5020
5487
5800
6233
3,676,200
3,786,800
3,913,200
4,054,200
4,167,200
4,278,100
4,362,700
4,460,700
4,539,600
4,592,500
4,644,100
4,670,000
4,720,000
4,967,700
5,100,000
5,481,900
7450
7850
8150
8650
9000
9500
9980
10400
10984
11150
11556
12100
12750
- Projected
14761
16000
18262
1321
1361
1427
1508
1600
1665
1749
1810
1928
2020
2101
2175
2260
-
2460
2594
2916
1,488,058
1,542,438
1,682,822
1,753,200
1,816,295
1,932,934
1,961,418
1,999,385
2,126,627
2,218,648
2,265,856
2,352,007
2,442,127
2,537,906
2,650,682
2,976,226
198,750
206,953
227,296
218,997
251,236
270,852
284,647
295,907
318,520
339,886
354,374
370,577
440,772
525,998
591 ,283
693,596
15,205
17,029
21 ,81 8
29,640
37,738
48,360
57,196
66,555
75,022
93,141
106,631
123,770
125,678
152,019
174,453
205,489
1975, 1977, 1980 values for gasoline consumption, auto registration, commercial vehicles, and motorcycles
are calculated by regression equations.
-------
5. REFERENCES
B-l. California, Department of Finance, Population Research Unit,
Provisional Projections of California Counties to 2000.
September 1971.
B-2. California, Department of Motor Vehicles, "Projected Motor -
Vehicle Registration and Drivers Licenses Outstanding 1970-
1985," Report No. 31, March 1970.
B-3. Personal communication with Peggy St. George, Department of
Motor Vehicles, California, March 1973.
B-4. California Department of Finance, California Statistical
Abstract. Part B, "Population," p. 7, 1972.
B-5. EPA and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Population and Economic Activity in the United States and
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. July 1972.
B-6. Personal communication with Pauline Sweezey, Economic Research
Unit, Department of Finance, California, April 30, 1973.
B-7. California, Department of Motor Vehicles.
B-8. R. L. Polk and Company, National Vehicle Registration Service,
"Passenger Cars in Operation as of July 1, 1972," Compiled
from official California state records.
B-7
-------
APPENDIX C
ESTIMATING MODE CHOICE AND VMT REDUCTION
To perform mode choice analyses required by the project within the
time constraints, a certain amount of regrouping of existing data had to
be done. Trip purposes and traffic zones were aggregated to conserve
unnecessary effort. Meanwhile, some disaggregation and experimentation
was necessary to get origin/destination patterns grouped in a manner
suitable for assessing VMT reduction. Each procedure in part necessitated
checking and some modification of BATSC mode choice curves.
1. TRIP PURPOSES
BATSC mode choice curves were developed for three trip purposes.
To simplify analyses, the three purposes were reduced to two:
a) Work trips, including BATSC home based work and related
business trips; these trips approximate rush hour travel patterns.
b) Non-work trips, including BATSC home based all other except
work and school trips and non-home based trips; these trips
approximate off-peak or midday travel patterns.
2. ZONES AND SUPERDISTRICTS
BATSC data were tabulated into 291 zones. For analytical purposes,
the zones were grouped into 30 larger geographic units, referred to by
BATSC as "superdistricts."
3. ORIGIN/DESTINATION COMBINATIONS
BATSC aggregated zonal data into six origin (production)/destination
(attraction) combinations as a basis for determining mode choice curves
from 1965 data (Figures C-l, C-2, and C-3).
o From low density residential to regional CBD
o From low density residential to other CBD
o From medium density residential to regional CBD
o From medium density residential to other
o From high density residential to regional CBD
o From high density residential to other
C-l
-------
70
o
I
2
CO
CL
O
(/>
i_
Ol
-------
O
I
CO
M
C
!
ut
CL
O
M
70
60
50
40
30
g 20
5
10
P CODES:
1 Low Residential Density
2 Medium Residential Density
3 High Residential Density
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit time/auto time)
Figure C-2. Bay Area Transportation Study Model Split Model
Home Based All Other Except Work and School Trips
-------
70
o
i
a.
*IL
o
t
60
50
a.
o 40
30
20
10
P CODES
1 Low Residential Density
2 Medium Residential Density
3 High Residential Density
A CODES
1 - Regional CBD
2 = Other
1.0 2.0 3.0 4-°
TRAVEL TIME RATIO (Transit time/auto time)
5.0
Figure C-3. Bay Area Transportation Study Modal Split Model
Non-Home Based Trips
-------
BATSC defined low density as zones with less than 10 dwelling units
per net residential acre, medium density as 10-30 dwelling units per acre
and high density as over 30 dwelling units per acre. Only San Francisco,
about 50 percent of Oakland and Berkeley and 10 percent of northern San
Mateo County and Richmond fall under the definition of medium or high
density. This residential density distinction, when applied by superdistrict,
separates trips originating in San Francisco from trips originating in
remaining low density, areas. To avoid losing the distinction between lower
and higher density travel characteristics in the East Bay (due to
aggregation) trips in and out of Oakland-Berkeley were treated separately
from other Alameda-Contra Costa County travel.
The BATSC regional CBD designation included San Francisco and Oakland
central business districts, a grouping which underestimates transit usage to
the San Francisco CBD and overestimates transit use to downtown Oakland.
To test strategies related to control of travel to downtown San Francisco,
it was important to separate out the San Francisco CBD. Oakland CBD was
aggregated with other Oakland-Berkeley travel.
4. TRIP LENGTH
Intradistrict trips were assumed to be local, whereas interdistrict
trips were considered intercity trips.
5. MODIFICATION OF MODE CHOICE CURVES
Once 1965 travel data had been aggregated by work and non-work
purposes, by intradistrict and interdistrict orientation, and by
destination -- San Francisco CBD, elsewhere in San Francisco, Oakland-
Berkeley, and elsewhere in the Bay Area (Tables C-l and C-2) -- mode
choice curves were developed according to the following procedures:
District to district travel times via transit and automobile
were obtained from computer tapes of BATSC 1965 data.
Distinction was made between peak hour and midday travel
times. A single zone in each district was selected for
computing district to district travel times (Tables C-3,
C-4, C-5).
t Ratios of district to district auto/transit travel times
were plotted against percent of person trips by transit.
Separate plots were developed for (1) trips destined to
San Francisco CBD, (2) trips destined to the remainder of
C-5
-------
Table C-l. 1965 Trip Origins and Destinations, Work Purpose
Daily Person Trips
Daily Transit Trips
Percent Trips by Transit
o
I
Destination
San Francisco CBD
Elsewhere in
San Francisco.
Oakland-Berkeley
Remainder Alameda
County
Remainder Contra
Costa County
San Mateo County
Marin County
Santa Clara County
Solano County
Sonoma County
Napa County
TOTAL
Source: 1965 BATSC
Origin Origin in Origin
Within San Francisco Elsewhere
District (*Includes (Other Total
(Local Oakland- Intercity Person
Travel) Berkeley) Travel) Trips
.
107,100
220,800
134,400
134,500
64,100
39,300
261 .800
58,700
60,600
22,400
1,103,700
Trip Table,
241 .5001
89,400
75,300*
37,700*
17,100*
29,400
2,800
0
0
0
0
493,200
Productions
186,800
83,800
146,300
38,700
52,300
93,800
19,300
276,400
19,100
20,800
6,100
943 ,200
(origins)
428,300
280,300
442,400
210,800
203,900
187,300
61 ,400
538,200
77,800
81 ,400
28,500
Origin
Within
District
(Local
Travel )
- _
20,600
30,600
2,200
2,500
1,300
500
3,200
1,200
200
0
Origin in Origin Origin Origin in Origin
San Francisco Elsewhere Within San Francisco Elsewhere
(includes (Other Total District (*Includes (Other
Oakland- Intercity Transit (Local Oakland- Intercity Total
Berkeley) Travel) Trips Travel) Berkeley) Travel) Trips
125, 800 ]
26,500
17,500*
4,100*
1,100*
5,300
600
0
0
0
0
2,540,300 62,300 180,800
and Attractions (Destinations)
69,100
6,600
4,300
100
500
2,700
400
3,200
900
0
0
88,100
194,900
53,700
52,400
6,400
4,100
9,300
1 ,500
6,400
2,100
200
0
331 ,000
_
19
14
2
2
1
3
1
6
1
0
5
521 37
.30 8
23* 3
11* 1
6* 1
18 3
20 2
1
5
0
0
37 9
45
19
12
3
2
5
2
1
3
0
0
13
Includes all trips originating in San Francisco destined to the CBD
-------
Table C-2. 1965 Trip Origins and Destinations, Non-Work Purpose
Daily Person Trips
Daily Transit Trips
Percent Trips by Transit
C~>
I
Destination
San Francisco CBD
Elsewhere in
San Francisco
Oakland-Berkeley
Remainder Alameda
County
Remainder Contra
Costa County
San Mateo County
Marin County
Santa Clara County
Solano County
Sonoma County
Naoa County
TOTAL
Source: 1965 BATSC
Origin
Within
District
(Local
Travel)
_
620,900
1,018,700
807,600
922,300
822,000
256,600
1,494,300
268,900
331,300
109.900
6,652,500 1
Trip Table,
Origin in Origin
San Francisco Elsewhere
(Includes (Other Total
Oakland- Intercity Person
Berkeley) Travel) Trips
534, 2001
247,400
140,300
66,700
47,700
55,700
12,100
0
0
0
0
,104,100
Productions
63,400
106,100
149,500
65,200
102,900
180,300
56,400
1,147,600
35,400
69,800
22,400
1,999,000
(Origins)
597,600
974,700
1,308,500
939,500
1,072,900
1,058,000
325,100
2,641,900
304,300
401,100
132,300
Origin
Within
District
(Local
Travel)
_
60,200
56,000
31 ,200
57,800
53,000
14,400
26,300
5,100
31 ,200
6,900
Origin in Origin Origin Origin in Origin
San Francisco Elsewhere Within San Francisco Elsewhere
(Includes (Other Total District (Mncludes (Other
Oakland- Intercity Transit (Local Oakland- Intercity Total
Berkeley) Travel) Trips Travel) Berkeley) Travel) Trips
105.7001
60,000
12,200
1,700
2,300
4,400
1,000
0
0
0
0
9,755,900 342,100 187,300
and Attractions (Destinations)
12,100
10,300-
12,200
1,800
3,900
8,700
1,300
10,900
1,200
8,100
2,100
72,600
117,800
130,500
80,400
34,700
64,000
66,100
16,700
37,200
6,300
39,300
9^000
602,000
201
10 24
5 9
4 3
6 5
6 8
6 8
2
2
9
6
5 17
19
10
8
3
4
5
2
1
3
12
10
4
20
13
6
4
6
6
5
1
2
10
7
6
Includes all trips originating in San Francisco destined to the CBD
-------
Table C-3. Trips to San Francisco CBS (Superdistrict 1), 1965, Work Purpose
Origin Auto/Transit Total Total Percent Trips
(Superdistrict) Travel Time Person Trips Transit Trips by Transit
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
16
17
18
15
14
20
30
29
6.08/4.46
17.6/13.1
33.0/18.4
33.0/23.4
53.5/33.1
63.7/42.5
78.6/60
49.5/34.5
57.5/41.3
67.9/37.4
74.8/51.7
116.4/65.2
72.5/57.6
53.2/35.8
56.1/47.6
= 1.40
= 1.35
= 1.80
= 1.40
= 1.60
= 1.50
= 1.30
= 1.40
= 1.40
= 1.80
= 1.45
= 1.80
= 1.25
= 1.50
= 1.20
75,500
83,800
71,700
30,600
35,300
13,400
11,800
25,700
12,500
8,075
6,910
780
9,850
14,600
12,300
23,700
49,900
35,300
16,900
10,600
6,500
6,400
12,300
7,370
3,260
2,820
170
4,700
2,920
3,930
31
60
49
55
30
49
54
48
59
37
43
22
48
20
32
C-8
-------
Table C-4. Trips to Oakland (Superdistrict 16), 1965, Work I'urposo
Origin \ Auto/Transit Total Total Percent Trips
(Superdistrict) Travel Time Person Trips Transit Trips by Transit
1
2
3
4
5
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
?0
22
29
42.9/32.5 =
52.8/35.4 =
53.3/32.1 =
59.9/42.9 =
Poor Connect.
No Transit
89.8/45.0 =
37.1/33.4 =
8.9/5.25 =
34.3/26.0 =
58.2/25.1 =
No Transit
46.2/37.2 =
Poor Connect,
Poor Connect,
1.30
1.45
1.70
1.40
2.0
1.1*
1.7
1.3
2.3
1.2
1,730
3,900
3,340
2,060
1,150
1,590
6,810
52,200
168,500
30,400
15,500
2,560
13,700
1,000
1,015
j _ .
1,170
515
230
250
-
-
265
3,710
25,600
5,960
990
-
1,050
-
_
68
13
69
12
0
0
4
7
15
20
6
0
8
0
0
*Manua1 adjustment to 1.3
C-9
-------
Table C-5. Trips to Berkeley (Superdistrict 17), 1965, Work Purpose
Origin Auto/Transit Total Total Percent Trips
(Superdistrict) Travel Time Person Trips Transit Trips by Transit
1-4
15
16
17
18
19
20
68
83
34
7
53
119
97
.3/42
.5/41
.3/26
.7/4.
. 5/22
.9/39
.9/27
.1
.2
6
.3
.9
.2
= 1
= 2
= 1
= 1
= 2
= 3
= 3
.60
.00
.30
.70
.40
.00
.60
3
6
29
52
24
3
10
,860
,330
,900
,300
,200
,200
,200
340
280
4,900
5,040
1,550
280
150
. 9
4
16
10
6
9
1
C-10
-------
San Francisco, (3) trips destined to Oakland-Berkeley,
and trips destined to other areas. Work trip (peak hour)
values were plotted separately from non-work trip (midday)
values (Figures C-4 and C-5).
t Curves were developed to fit district to district travel
data, first trying to utilize zone to zone mode choice
curves derived by BATSC, and as a second choice interpolating
between curves previously developed by BATSC. Mode choice
curves generally take the same shape from one geographic area
to another, making extrapolation from limited data less risky
than one might otherwise expect. Mode split curve assumptions
behind curves shown in Chapter 4 are identified below and are
documented in Tables C-6 through C-9.
Work Trips (Interdistrict and Intradistrict):
1. To San Francisco CBD from San Francisco -- BATSC Curve PA = 21
2. To San Francisco CBD from Elsewhere Adjusted BATSC PA = 11
Curve
3. To Remainder San Francisco from San Francisco Interpolated
BATSC Curves PA = 32 and PA = 22
4. To Remainder San Francisco from Elsewhere -- Interpolated
BATSC Curves PA = 22 and PA = 12
5. To Oakland-Berkeley from San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley --
Developed Curve to Fit BATSC Data
6. To Oakland-Berkeley from Elsewhere -- Developed Curve to Fit
BATSC Data
7. To Remainder Alameda County from San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley
-- Developed Curve to Fit BATSC Data
8. To Remainder Alameda County from Elsewhere -- BATSC Curve PA = 12
9. To Contra Costa County from San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley --
Same as No. 7
10. To Contra Costa County from Elsewhere -- BATSC Curve PA = 12
11. To Marin County from San Francisco BATSC Curve PA = 22
12. To Marin County from Elsewhere BATSC Curve PA = 12
13. To San Mateo County from San Francisco BATSC Curve PA = 22
14. To San Mateo County from Elsewhere ~ BATSC Curve PA = 12
15. To Santa Clara County BATSC Curve PA = 12
16. To Solano County -- BATSC Curve PA = 21
17. To Sonoma County -- BATSC Curve PA = 21
18. To Napa County BATSC Curve PA = 21
Non-work Trips (Interdistrict and Intradistrict):
1. To San Francisco from all Locations -- BATSC NBO Curve PA = 11,21
2. To Remainder of San Francisco from All Locations Curve to Fit
BATSC Data
3. To Oakland-Berkeley from Everywhere Curve to Fit BATSC Data
4. To Other Locations BATSC HBO Curve PA = 12
C-11
-------
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
San Francisco Origin
(BATSC PA=21 Curve)
Origin Outside
San Francisco
(BATSC PA«11 Curve)
Poorer
Coverage
and Tie
to CBD
29
1.0 1.5
TRAVEL TIME RATIO - AUTO/TRANSIT
Figure C-4- Percent Person Trips by Transit Versus Auto-Transit
Travel Time Ratio -- Example: Work Trips to San Francisco CBD
C-12
-------
50
o
I
CO
/»
40
30
P^ From Oakland-Berkeley - San Francisco
J~* (Used BATSC Curves PA=12 & PA=11)
OAK
6
20
From Outside Oakltnd-Berkeley-San Francisco
(Used BATSC Curves PA=12 & PA-22)
1.0 1.5
TRAVEL TIME RATIO - TRANSIT/AUTO
2.0
Figure C-5. Percent Person Trips by Transit Versus Auto-Transit
Travel Time Ratio -- Example: .Work Trips to Oakland-Berkeley
-------
Table C-6. 1980 Trip Origins and Destinations, Work Purpose
Daily Person Trips
Daily Transit Trips
Percent Trips by Transit
Destination
San Francisco CBD
Elsewhere In
San Francisco
Oakland-Berkeley
Remainder Alameda
County
Remainder Contra
Costa County
San Mateo County
Marin County
Santa Clara County
Solano County
Sonoma County
Napa County
TOTAL
Source: 1980 BATSC
Origin
Within
District
(Local
Travel )
108,000
234,800
199,300
185,800
184,300
77,300
369,600
91 .400
103.200
38.300
1,595.000
Trip Table,
Origin in Origin
San Francisco Elsewhere
(Includes (Other Total
Oakland- Intercity Person
Berkeley) Travel) Trips
262 ,000 ]
116.300
108.800*
58,100*
39.200*
57.900
7,300
0
0
0
0
649.600 1
X-2 Transit
211,200
135.400
254.500
117,300
122,800
197,600
32,600
533,200
38,500
42,200
25,400
,710,700
Network,
473,200
359,700
598,100
374,700
347,800
439.800
117,200
902,800
132,900
145,400
63.700
3,955,300
Productions
Origin
Within
District
(Local
Travel)
24,400
38.300
3.900
6.500
6,700
1.500
7,500
4.200
3.800
1.900
98,700
(Origins)
Origin in Origin
San Francisco Elsewhere
(Includes (Other
Oakland- Intercity
Berkeley) Travel)
161 .3001
33,700
24.500*
7.300*
5,700*
15,300
1,800
0
0
0
0
107.900
12.2002
28,300
3,700
4,500
9,600
1,200
18,000
2,100
2,300
1,100
Origin
Within
Total District
Transit (Local
Trips Travel )
269,200
70.300
91,100
14,900
16,700
31.600
4.500
25.500
6.300
6.100
3.000
249.600 190.900 539,200
and Attractions (Destinations).
23
16
2
3
4
2
2
5
4
5
6
Origin in Origin
San Francisco Elsewhere
(Includes (Other
Oakland- Intercity Total
Berkeley) Travel) Trips
621
29
22*
13*
15*
26
24
-
-
-
38
51 57
092 20
11 15
3 4
4 5
5 7
4 4
3 3
6 5
5 4
5 5
11 14
Includes all trips from San Francisco destined to the CBD.
Hand adjustment to compensate for inclusion of Southern Crossing in BATSC 1980 assumptions.
-------
Table C-7. 1980 Trip Origins and Destinations, Non-Work Purposes
Dally Person Trips
Dally Transit Trips
Percent Trips by Transit
o
i
en
Destination
San Francisco CBD
Elsewhere In
San Francisco
Oakland-Berkeley
Remainder Alameda
County
Renal nder Contra
Costa County
San Mateo County
Marin County
Santa Clara County
SoVano County
Sonoma County
Napa County
TOTAL
Origin Origin in Origin
Within San Francisco Elsewhere
District (Mncludes (Other Total
(Local Oakland- Intercity Person
Travel) Berkeley) Travel) Trips
47,000
998,300
907,600
936,400
946.000
411,000
1,573,300
346,200
422,300
152,500
6,740,600
471, BOO1
348,200
237,200*
116,500*
115,200*
142,400
42,700
0
0
0
0
1,473,700
101,800
183,100
356,100
217,000
275.600
342,900
102.100
963.200
60.100
69.000
59.600
2,730,500
573,300
578.300
1 .591 .600
1,241,100
1.327.200
1 .431 .300
555.800
2.536.500
406.300
491 .300
212,100
10.944,800
Origin
Within
District
(Local
Travel )
22.600
40.000
6,200
9.800
10.100
3.200
13.900
2.800
6.300
1,900
116,800
Origin 1n Origin Origin
San Francisco Elsewhere Within
(Includes (other Total District
Oakland- Intercity Transit (Local
Berkeley) Travel) Trips Travel)
158.0001
34.700
16,300*
3,600*
4,100*
8.900
1,700
0
0
0
0
227.300
23,000
6.8002
12,800
2,400
3,700
5,900
1,200
10,500
700
1,700
900
69,600
181,000
64,100
69.100
12,200
17,600
24,900
6,100
24,400
3,500
8,000
2,800
413.700
48
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
Origin in Origin
San Francisco Elsewhere
(*Inc1udes (Other
Oakland- Intercity
Berkeley) Travel)
341
10
7*
3*
4*
2
4
-
-
-
.
15
22
42
4
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
3
Total
Trips
32
11
4
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
4
Source: 1980 BATSC Trip Table, X-2 Transit Network, Productions (Origins) and Attractions (Destinations)
Includes all trips from San Francisco destined to the CBD
2
Hand adjustment to compensate for inclusion of Southern Crossing In BATSC 1980 Assumptions
-------
Table C-8. Percentage Breakdown of Bay Area VMT, 1980
Work Purpose VMT
Non-Work Purpose VMT
o
o\
Destination
San Francisco CBD
Elsewhere 1n
San Francisco
Oakland-Berkeley
Remainder Alameda
County
Remainder Contra
Costa County
San Mateo County
Marln County
Santa Clara County
Solano County
Sonoma County
Napa County
TOTAL
Source: 1980 BATSC
Origin
Within
District
(Local
Travel)
0.2
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
1.7
0.5
0.3
0.1
6.2
travel data
Origin In
San Francisco
('Includes
Oakland-
Berkeley)
0.41
0.4
0.9*
0.7*
0.5*
0.7
0.1
0
0
0
0
3.7
, zone to zone
Origin
Elsewhere
(Other
Intercity
Travel)
2.9
3.2
4.7
2.7
2.4
4.2
0.7
8.5
0.9
1.0
0.5
31.7
Total
Work
VKT
3.3
3.8
6.3
4.2
3.7
5.6
1.2
10.2
1.4
1.3
0.6
41.6
vehicle trips multiplied
Origin
Within
District
(Local
Travel)
_
0.6
2.1
1.8
2.0
2.0
1.2
3.8
0.9
0.8
0.3
15.5
by travel
Origin In
Origin
San Francisco Elsewhere
(Includes (Other
Oakland-
Berkeley)
0.61
1.1
1.5*
1.2*
1.3*
1.2
0.3
0
0
0
0
7.2
distance and
Intercity
Travel)
1.9
3.2
4.3
3.3
3.4
4.5
3.4
8.7
1.0
1.1
0.9
35.7
sunned.
Total
Non-work
VMT
2.5
4.9
7.9
6.3
6.7
7.7
4.9
12.5
1.9
1.9
1.2
58.4
Total
All Purpose
WT
5.8
8.7
14.2
10.5
10.4
13.3
6.1
22.7
3.3
3.2
1.8
100.0
Includes all trips from San Francisco destined to the CBD
-------
Table C-9. Work Trips by Transit for Selected Control Options
lestirwtion
S.F. C°.0
Remainder S.F.
Oak-Rsrk.
Ren. Ala. Co.
Contra Costa Co.
Marin Co.
San llateo Co.
Santa Clara Co.
Solano Co.
Soiona Co.
;ana Co.
Origin
S.F.
Elsewhere,
Ren. S.F.Z
S.F.
Elsewhere
Oak-Berk. 2
S.F., Oak., Berk.
Elsewhere
Ren-Alaneda2
S.F., Oak.. Berk.
elsewhere
Contra Costa?
S.F., Oak.. Berk.
Elsewhere,
Marin Co.z
S.F.
Elsewhere
S.H. Co.?
S.F.
Elsewhere
S.C. Co.2
Elsewhere
Solano Co. z
Elsewhere
Sonona Co.'
Elsewhere
Ma pa Co. 2
Elsewhere
Total Bay Area WorV Trips
A
Transit ,
Inprovenents
I by
Transit
1980
62
51
23
29
9
16
22
11
2
13
3
3
15
4
2
24
4
4
26
5
2
3
5
6
4
5
5
5
13.fi
Increase
From
1965
10
14
4
-1
1
2
-1
8
0
2
2
1
9
3
1
4
2
3
8
2
1
2
-1
1
3
5
5
5
1.0
8
Imposition of 5Qt Toll
to S.F.
S by
Transit
1980
62
53
23
29
10
16
22
11
2
13
3
3
15
4
2
25
4
4
26
5
2
3
5
6
4
5
5
5
13.7
I Increase
Over A
_
2
_
1
.
_
_
.
_
_
_
_
,
1
_
,
.
_
_
_
.
_
.
-
0.1
* VTM
Reaction
0
0.12
0
0
0.03
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
e
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0
0.15
c
Imposition of $2 Toll
to S.F.
I by
Transit
1980
62
57
23
29
12
16
24
11
2
15
3
3
17
4
2
28
4
4
30
5
2
3
5
6
4
5
5
5
14.2
I Increase
Over A
_
6
.
3
2
_
2
_
2
_
4
-
.
4
_
_
.
..
.
.
-
-
0.6
X VTM
Reduction
0
0.35
0
0
0.10
0
0.03
0
0
0.01
0
0
0.01
0
0
0.01
0
0
0.04
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.55
0
Free Fare
" by
Transit
1980
64
74
26
31
16
18
25
20
2
15
10
3
17
10
2
27
10
4
28
10
2
10
5
10
4
10
5
10
18.4
% Increase
Over A
2
23
3
2
7
2
3
9
0
2
7
0
2
7
10
3
7
0 ';
2
5
0
7
0
4
-
5
-
5
4.7
% VTM
Reduction
0.02
0.69
0.01
0.01
0.30
0.01
0.04
0.22
0
0.01
0.17
0
0.01
0.14
0
0
0.07
0
0.01
0.20
0
0.21
0
0.04
0
0.05
0
0.05
2.25
E
Traffic Restrictions
Transit/Auto = 1.0
% by
Transit
1980
62'
51
23
36
13
16
24
11
2
13
S
3
15
S
2
26
5
4
26
5
2
5
5
6
4
5
5
5
14.4
X Increase
Over A
-
-
-
7
4
.
2
.
_
.
2
.
1
-
2
1
-
-
-
-
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.7
- VTM
Reduction
0
0
0
0.04
0.12
0
0.03
0
0
0
0
0
0.05
0
0
0.02
0
0
0.01
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.27
F
Improved Local Transit
Transit/Auto = 1.«
X by
Transit
1980
62
51
37
29
9
17
22
11
7
13
7
7
15
6
7
24
6
7
26
6
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
14.0
" Increase
Over A
-
-
14
-
1
-
.
5
-
4
4
-
2
5
-
2
3
-
1
5
3
1
-
2
1
1
1
0.4
*, VTM
Reduction
0
0
0.07
0
0
0.01
0
0
0.04 i
0
0.04
0.03
0
0.05
0.02
0
0.01
O.D2
0
0.04
0.08
0.25
0
0
0.01
0.01
0 '
0
0.63
o
t
Assures BART fully operational and Santa Clare County Transit District operating with 200 new buses.
ZLocal (Intradistrict) trips).
-------
APPENDIX D
MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
1. INTRODUCTION
Environmental pollution resulting from motor vehicle emissions was
investigated by considering separately the contributions from: light
duty vehicles, heavy duty gasoline powered vehicles, heavy duty diesel
vehicles, and motorcycles. Base year emissions from these vehicle
types were estimated by determining the annual mileage by model distribution
of the region's vehicle population, the overall mileage traveled by
vehicles in the region, and then applying appropriate emission factors
which are attributable to the various vehicle age classifications.
Consider, for example, a region in which it is known that eight percent
of all light-duty vehicle travel is performed by cars of age three years,
that the total vehicle miles traveled in the region is five million miles
per year, and that the representative hydrocarbon exhaust emission factor for
three-year old cars in the region is 4.4 grams per mile. The hydrocarbon ex-
haust emission contribution by the three-year old light duty vehicle group is
(5,000,000) 4.4 (.08) x - = 4822 total grams hydro-
365 J~ carbon per day.
Subsequently, the total light duty emissions for the region may be
determined by performing the summation:
h+1
(VMTL \ ^ e. m. «= total exhaust emissions
n / j ip in
i=(n-12)
where
VMT = total vehicle miles traveled in region for given
vehicle type (light duty, heavy duty, etc.). This
is determined from transportation study data.
e. = emission factor for ith^model year for pollutant p
p during calendar year n in a given region.
D-l
-------
m. = weighted annual travel of the ith_ model year vehicle
in during calendar year n. (The determination of this
variable involves the use of the vehicle model year
distribution.)
The factor
where
e. is determined according to the relationship
eipn = cipdipn SP
c. = the 1975 federal test procedure emission rate for
p pollutant p (grams per .mile) for the ith_ model year, at
low mileage. These values are available from Reference (D-l)
d. = the controlled vehicle pollutant p emission deterioration
p factor for the ith model year at calendar year n. These
figures are available from Reference (D-l).
s = the speed adjustment factor for exhaust emission for
p pollutant p. This value is available from Reference (D-l)
when the average speed of vehicular travel is known.
The calculation of hydrocarbon emissions also involves evaporative
and crankcase hydrocarbon emission rates. These emissions are determined
in the same manner as exhaust emissions by using:
(VMT)n
Hn-12)
'
where
h. = the combined evaporative and crankcase emission rate
for the a th, model yeap,
m. = the weighted annual travel of the ith_ model year during
calendar year n.
The numerical calculations required fpr estimation of total base year
emissions are carried out with the use of a computer program. Values for
hi' cip and dipn are taken frorn Reference (D-l), and s , VMT, and m1n are
determined from vehicle data for the region of interest.
D-2
-------
Projected vehicle emissions for the future years 1975, 1977, and
1980 are computed 1n the same manner as the base year emissions, utilizing
anticipated vehicle (VMT) growth rates and expected emission reduction rates
as determined from regional data and as provided by Reference (D-l).
The vehicle emissions which are anticipated in future years, based
on current scheduled emission control programs, forms the vehicle
"baseline emission" profjile^ The "baseline emissions" may be viewed,
therefore, as the nominal emissions which are projected to occur from the
base year (the former year .in which the maximum ambient pollution peak
was observed to occur) to>the years 1975, 1977, and 1980. Baseline
emissions are calculated in terms of THC, CO, and N0₯. The calculation
, t /\
results for the various types of vehicles are presented in Section
of the report.
Implementation of additional controls to reduce vehicle emissions
below the nominal baseline emission profile are investigated by adjusting
the appropriate mathematical functions which reflect the type of proposed
control. For example, the effect of retrofit of catalytic converters on
used light duty model vehicles is determined by adjusting the emission
and deterioration factors for those models proposed for control, and by
carrying out the series of summations 1n the computer model. If, as
another example, a program 1s implemented to bring about a reduction in
total VMT, total emissions, in this case, would be easily determined
applying a proportionate decrease in the baseline emissions.
The following sections describe the requirements for manipulation
of regional data preparatory to input to the computer model. Emissions
are calculated separately for light duty vehicles, heavy duty gasoline
powered vehicles, heavy duty diesel vehicles, and motorcycles.
2. LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES
Emissions from light duty vehicles were computed according to the
methodology discussed above. This necessitated the determination of
1) weighted annual travel by model, 2) average vehicle speed in the region,
3) emission factors by model, 4) deterioration rates for emission factors
by model, and 5) total VMT.
D-3
-------
2.1 Weighted Annual Travel
To determine the weighted annual travel of various model year
i
vehicles in the San Franciscb Air Basin, the following vehicle
distributions were utilized:
Passenger car model distribution
Annual mileage distribution by model.
The passenger car model distribution was obtained from data supplied by
R. L. Polk and Company (D-2). This data lists registered passenger models
by county as of July 1, 1972. The model year data does not include
all light duty vehicles (pickups and light trucks are omitted), but
its distribution by model year was presumed closely representative
of the actual light duty distribution. The passenger car distributions
for the base year of 1971 were calculated from the 1972 Polk registration
data, truncated at the year 1971. Table D-l displays the Polk passenger car
registration data and the corresponding calculated normalized distribution
which was taken as the light duty vehicle model distribution. It is assumed
that this distribution reflects very closely the true distribution of model
passenger cars actually traveling in the area, although it is recognized
that'through-trips by cars registered outside the county may influence
the true distribution. This effect is considered to be minor, particularly
in the San Francisco Basin, because through trips represent a small
fraction of the total vehicle mileage.
The annual mileage of the various model year vehicles is determined
from data compiled by the California ARB from results of tests by the
California Highway Patrol (D-3). The tests were conducted between March 15
and May 30 of 1972, at numerous locations in the state. Odometer readings
were recorded for each of the model years. An average age was calculated
for each of the model years at the time of the test (for example, the
average age of 1972 model cars at the mid-time of the test period was .28
years, the average age of 1971 models was 1.06, of 1970 models 2.06, etc.)
and plotted as a function of the average odometer reading. The plot is
end of the year average ages of vehicles (i.e., 1972 models have an average
age of .75 years at the close of 1972; 1971 models are 1.75 years old,
etc.). Table D-2 shows a tabulation of odometer readings versus average
vehicle age for test data taken in the City of Sacramento. The difference in
D-4
-------
Table D-l. Passenger Car Model Distribution (As of December 1972) for San Francisco Air Basin (Reference D-l)
o
1
CJ1
County
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
MARIN
RAPA
SAN FRANCISCO
SAN MATED
SANTA CLARA
SOLANO
SONOMA
TOTALS
(2205400)
% TOTAL
72
47323
24671
9943
3191
35619
40053
54003
7117
8077
230000
10.43
71
45480
25033
10615
3150
27959
27579
49917
7570
7997
205300
9.30
70
43437
24539
9658
3068
26746
25892
47848
7054
7818
196060
8.89
69
48604
27146
11675
3475
27105
28255
54629
7809
9018
217716
9.87
68
43805
24807
10164
3251
23557
25565
49109
6731
8257
195246
8.85
67
37966
21415
8915
2784
20134
22257
43803
5682
2423
170379
7.72
66
38533
22112
8324
3019
20074
22775
44195
6177
8426
173635
7.87
65
40445
23633
8584
3164
20913
23692
45774
6332
9236
181773
8.24
64
34262
19251
6910
2650
17658
19485
38723
5516
7901
152356
6.90
63
27854
15602
5523
2341
14299
15734
32438
4486
6822
125099
5.67
62
21680
11880
4015
1782
10851
11854
24356
3481
5522
95421
4.32
61
13781
7701
2529
1258
7106
7595
15576
2242
3551
61339
2.78
60
11707
6453
2040
979
5574
6134
12928
2037
2866
50718
2.30
59
8040
4586
1399
708
3619
4070
9020
1482
2156
35080
1.59
58
4467
2505
843
413
2068
2284
4651
852
1216
19299
.875
57
5147
2926
843
456
2327
2581
5275
957
1359
21871
.991
Prior
to 57
18063
9498
2914
1773
8375
8436
16977
3060
5012
74108
3.36
* This is an adjusted value (was 171471) based on assumption that 1972 model cars are sold at constant linear rate throughout
the marketing season (terminating in October 1972).
-------
Table D-2. Distribution of Average Annual Mileage
and Cumulative Mileage by Vehicle Age
(End of 1972) Miles In
Vehicle Age Odometer Proceeding Year
750 13,400 13,400
1.750 26,500 13,100
2.750 39,300 12,800
3.750 49,800 10,500
4.750 59,100 9,300
5.750 67,300 8,200
Source; Table I of Reference D-3.
odometer readings between successive model years is equivalent to the
miles driven by each of the models in the past year (see Table D-2).
The mileage driven in the past calendar year versus the actual vehicle
age is plotted in Figure D-l. Since the Highway Patrol tests entailed
only models of year 1966 and newer, the mileage driven in the past year
by older cars was assumed to be the same as that given for the statewide
average annual mileage compiled by the State ARB 1n Reference (D-3). The
overall model mileage distribution was presumed to approximate driving
patterns in the base year of the study, consequently data was adjusted
accordingly. , , .
The weighted annual travel of the different model year light duty
vehicles was calculated by multiplying the vehicle model year distribu-
tion by the model annual vehicle mileage. These values are tabulated
for San Francisco in Table D-3.
2.2 Average Vehicle Speed in Region
The speed adjustment factor, used in the emission calculation, is
determined by the pollutant type and the average vehicle travel speed in
the region. The value is given by Figures 1, 2, and 3 of Reference (D-l).
2.j Emission and Deterioration Factors
The light duty vehicle emission rates must reflect the special case
in California where earlier and stricter emission standards have been
D-6
-------
16
San Francisco Air Basin
(O
Ol
dJ
U
01
O.
Q
OJ
u
r-
^:
0)
14
12
c 10
San Francisco Air Basin (D-3)
Statewide (D-4)
6 8
Actual Vehicle Age
10
12 14
Figure D-l. Vehicle Miles Driven Per Year Versus
Age of Vehicle (References D-3 and D-4)
D-7
-------
Table D-3. Weighted Annual Travel by Model Year and Total Annual Travel
for Light Duty Vehicles San Francisco Air Basin for Base Year 1971
Model Year
71
70
69
68
67
I 66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58 & Prior
Vehicle
Age
Dist.
10.43
9.30
8.89
9.87
8.85
7.72
7.87
8.24
6.90
5.67
5.32
2.78
2.30
6.82
Total
Cars
293685
261867
250322
277917
249196
217377
221601
232020
194289
159655
121642
78278
64763
192036
Annual
VMT in
Preceding
YeaiW
1 3400
13100
12800
10500
9300
8200
4400
3700
3600
3650
3600
3550
3500
3500
Weighted
Miles Driven
In Preceding
Year
1396
1218
1136
1036
823
633
346
305
248
207
156
99
80
238
% Of
Total Of All
Vehicle
Mileage
.175
.153
.143
.130
.103
.079
.043
.038
.031
.026
.020
.012
.010
.030
Total VMT
In Preceding
Year
3.935*109
3.430xl09
3. 204x1 O9
2.918xl09
2.317xl09
1.783xl09
9.750xl08
8.585xl08
6.994xl08
5.827xl08
4.379xl08
2.779xl08
2.267xl08
6.711xl08
TOTAL
2814648 (a)
7921
.993
2.232x10
10
(a) State Motor Vehicle Department registration data for automobiles. The data was adjusted to
include light duty commercial vehicles not included in the "automobile" registrations.
(b) References D-3 and D-4.
-------
implemented. The essential elements of the California control program
include the following:
Crankcase emission control on all hew gasoline-powered
vehicles
Exhaust emission standards on all new vehicles, both
diesel and gasoline powered. These controls will be
increasingly stringent through the 1975 model year.
After 1975, all light duty vehicles must meet strict
federal standards.
i
Fuel evaporative emissions standards on 1970 and later
model gasoline-powered light duty vehicles, and 1973
and later heavy duty vehicles.
t Assembly-line testing of all light duty vehicles to be
sold in California after January 31, 1973.
Crankcase emission control devices required on 1955-
1963 model cars upon transfer of ownership in 13 of
the state's more populous counties.
Exhaust control devices required on 1955 to 1965
model year light duty vehicles upon transfer of owner-
ship in the South Coast, San Diego and San Francisco
Air Basins (the latter Basin after March 1, 1973).
These devices reduce emissions of hydrocarbons and
oxides of nitrogen
t Exhaust control devices for oxides of nitrogen will
be required on 1966 to 1970 vehicles on an installa-
tion schedule starting February 1, 1973.
Exhaust emission factors for the light duty vehicle population in
future years or the base year is dependent on the degree to which sched-
uled emission control programs will have been implemented in the year
being considered.
Base year emission factors, by model and pollutant, were determined
from results of vehicle emission tests performed according to the 1972
Federal Certification Test Procedure. The exhaust emission factors are
shown in Table D-4 for the base year. Table D-5 is a tabulation of
exhaust factors effective after July 1974 when all used light duty vehicles
of the model years 1966 to 1970 will have been equipped on schedule with
exhaust gas recirculation control devices for oxides of nitrogen and a
portion of the 1955 to 1965 light duty vehicles will have been equipped
D-9
-------
Table D-4. CO, THC, and NOX Light Duty Vehicle Exhaust
' Emission Factors for the State of California
Base Year 1971 (Reference D-l)
Model Year
Pre-1966
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
Exhaust Emission
CO
87
51
50
46
39
36
34
Factors at
THC
8.8
6.0
4.6
4.5
4.4
3.6
2.9
Low Mileage
NOX
3.6
3.4
3.4
4.3
5.5
5.1
3.5
(Grams/Mi)
Table D-5. CO, THC, and NOX Light Duty Vehicle Exhaust
Emission Factors for San Francisco Effective
After July 1974 (Reference D-l)
Exhaust Emission Factors at Low Mileage (Grams/Mi)
Model Year CO THC NOX
-Pre- 1966
1966
1967
1 968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 and later
60.0
35.2
34.5
31.7
26.9
24.8
34.0
19.0
19.0
19.0
4.8
1.8
6.6
5.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
.5
.23
1.9
1.8
1.8
2.2
2.9
2.7
3.5
3.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
.31
D-10
-------
with the vacuum spark advance disconnect (VSAD) device. These factors are
used for calculation of projected baseline emissions. The calculation of
emissions for model 1955 to 1965 light duty vehicles must include an ad-
justment for the fraction of the vehicle fleet which has not been
retrofitted by 1975, 1977, and 1980. The retrofit is required upon change
of vehicle ownership, assumed to be 25 percent per year (D-5). With the
retrofit beginning in early 1973'for all domestic light-duty vehicles (82
percent), by 1975 the fraction of 1955 to 1965 vehicles with the VSAD de-
vice will be .82 [.25+.25 (1-.25)] = .36. In 1977 the fraction will be
.82 [.44+.25 (1-.44) +.25 (1-.25 (1-.44) )] = .56. Similarly in 1980, .70
of the designated model fleet will be retrofitted.
Deterioration factors expressing the rate of increase of the light-
duty vehicle emission factors with model age, are available from
Reference (D-l). These factors are taken to be constant for the base year
as well as the projected years (the operation of the exhaust gas
recirculation device add on is presumed not to exhibit a deteriorating
characteristic).
The values in Table D-5 are adjusted to reflect the VSAD device
scheduled for installation on model 1966 to 1970 light duty vehicles by
July 1974. It also reflects a recent revision in standards requirements
for CO and THC for 1975 model vehicles.
Reduction of emissions attributed to the VSAD installation were
determined from direct communication with the EPA District 9 Office, as
were the revised emission standards for 1975 model vehicles.
Crankcase and evaporative emission factors are given in Table D-6
and apply for both the base year and projected years. These values
reflect the California standards for evaporative emissions on 1970 and
later light duty vehicles and crankcase emission control on all vehicles.
The emission values are given for low mileage non-deteriorated vehicle
operation. Deterioration factors by model year and pollutant are used to
account for the aging or deterioration of exhaust emission control devices.
The deterioration factors also reflect the special case in California where
earlier promulgation of emission standards occurred.
D-ll
-------
Table D-6. Light Duty Crankcase and Evaporative Hydrocarbon Emissions
by Model Year in California Base Year and Projected Years
(Reference D-l)*
Model Year LDV Hydrocarbons
Pre-1960 3.0
1961-1963 3.0
1964-1967 3.0
1968-1969 3.0
1970-1971 .5
1972 .2
1973 on .2
2.4 Total VMT
Total VMT in the region is determined either from: 1) calculation of
the product of total registered vehicles by model and VMT per year by model,
or 2) transportation studies performed in the area. The calculation of VMT
from model and VMT distribution is shown in Table D-3. VMT estimates based
on studies performed by the MTC were considered to be the most valid input
for VMT (D-6). These figures were available from regional transportation
studies performed in the San Francisco Basin. The VMT values were used in
calculation of total emissions from light duty vehicles in the San Francisco
Basin.
2.5 Computer Calculation of Emissions
The parameters of the foregoing discussion are determined in the
context of a specified pollutant, emission type (exhaust, evaporative,
or crankcase), and year n, and inserted in the relation
sp
-------
Computer printout sheets for hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and
oxides of nitrogen emissions for 1972 are shown in Figures D-2, D-3, and
D-4, respectively. These case examples give the exhaust and crankcase/
evaporative emissions in the base year for each of the three major
pollutants generated by light-duty vehicles for the San Francisco Basin
study. The input data for each model year vehicle is shown in table form
for each case. The values for average speed and daily vehicle miles
traveled are shown along with the output data display at the bottom of
the sheet. The emission rate, expressed in grams per mile, is an average
rate for all light-duty vehicle model years. The total emission for each
case is shown in tons per year and tons per day.
2.6 Projected Emissions in Future Years
The calculation of emissions for future years involves a projection
of deterioration factors, emission factors, and weighted annual vehicle
travel for future model vehicles, and VMT and average traffic speed in the
future years of interest. The deterioration and emission factors in future
years are estimated by considering vehicle controls which are scheduled for
future implementation, and adjusting the factors accordingly. Since regional
projections of vehicle model year distribution and annual mileage by model
are not available, the weighted annual vehicle travel distribution for future
years was assumed to remain unchanged from that presently used. It is noted
that rather constant historical patterns in motor vehicle sales justify this
assumption as a feasible estimate. Projected VMT and average traffic speeds
are available from transportation studies conducted by the Metropolitan
Transportation Commission (D-6). This information has been tabulated and is
shown in Table D-7.
Baseline emission calculation results are presented in Section 3.3.3
of this report.
Table D-7. Summary of Vehicular Travel, San Francisco
Air Basin (Reference D-6)
Vehicle Miles of Travel (In Thousands of Miles)
Vehicle Type WT T975^977~T950
Light duty vehicles 57,783 67,311 72,051 79,197
Heavy duty vehicles 4,017 4,679 5,009 5,506
Total, LDV and HDV 61,800 71,990 77,060 84,703
Average speed, mph 39 40.3 41.1 42.0
D-13
-------
YEAH
1971
197C
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
1960
1959
1956
2
3
4
M
4
6
8
8
8
a
8
a
8
8
i
.
*
*
*
P
90
60
40
50
5J
00
30
80
80
80
80
80
80
30
d
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
\
*
*
*
»
*
pn
00
05
16
21
14
29
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
*
*
m. -
in
176
154
143
131
1J4
CtiO
Ct4
038
031
G26
020
012
010
030
h
3.
3 .
~»
-i .
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
1
50
50
CO
oG
CO
CO
00
CO
CO
00
00
CO
CO
00
SP
.C3
.63
.63
.03
.03
«>3
.63
.63
.o3
T! 1960 8.80 1.00 .012 3.CO .63
.63
.63
AVERAGE SPEED = 39.00
HYDKCC4KBCN EXHALST EMISSIONS = 3.51 G/M
CR/>NKCASe ANC EVAP LOSSES = 2.17 G/M
TOTAL = 5.68 G/M
DAILY VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED_-_57783.00 THQUSANO MILES
TOTAL YEARLY HYORCCAK80N EMISSIONS = "l32070.46 TOMS
TUTAL DAILY HYCROCARBGN EMISSIONS = 361.64 TINS
Figure D-2. San Francisco Basin - Estimated Hydrocarbon Baseline
Emissions from Light Duty Vehicles in 1971
-------
o
en
YEAK
1971
j 197C
j 196S
1968
1967
1966
1965
i 1964
: 1963
1962
1961
1960
1959
1958
C.
IP
34.00
36.00
39.00
46.00
5C.OC
51.00
87.00
87.00
87.00
87.00
87.00
87.00
87.00
87.00
aipn
I. 00
1.18
1.53
1.41
1.29
1.28
1.00
l.OO
1.00
1.00
l.OO
1.00
1.00
1.00
"'in
. 176
.154
.143
.131
.104
.080
.044
.038
.031
.026
.020
.012
.010
.030
V
. 56
.56
.56
.56
.56
.56
.56
.56
.56
.56
.56
.56
.56
.56
AVERAGE SPEED = 39.00
CAKBCN MONOXIDE fcMISSICNS = 33.56 G/H
DAILY VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED = 57783.00 THOUSAND MILES
TOTAL YEARLY CAR8O MONOXIDE EMISSIONS = 780137.29 TONS
TUTAL UAILY CAR80N MJNOXIGE EMISSIONS = 2137.36 TUNS
Figure D-3. San Francisco Basin - Estimated Carbon Monoxide Baseline
Emissions from Light Duty Vehicles in 1971.
-------
YEAR cip dipn m1n sp
1S71 3.5C 1.00 .176 1.24
197C 5.10 1.00 .154 1.24
196S 5.50 1.00 il43 J 1.24
1968 4.30 1.00 .131 1.24
1967 3.40 1.00 .104 1.24
1966 3.40 1.00 .CJO 1.24
1965 3.60 1.00 .C44 U2«t
1964 " 3;60 i.OO .C38 1.24
1963 3.60 1.00 .031 1.24
lj>62 3.60 1.00 .C26 1.24
"1961 3Vt.O 1.00 .020 1.24
I960 3.60 1.00 .012 i.24
1959 3.60 1.00 .010 1.24
195 £ ' 3.60. 1.00 .030 1.24
AVEKAGE SPEED = 3S.OO
N GXICES EMSSIL^S = b,12 G/M
OAIIY VEHICLE ^ILtS TRAVELLED = 57783.00 THOUSAND *1LES
TuTAL YEARLY MTRCCEN OXIDES EMISSIONS = 118974.61 TUNS
TOTAL DAILY NITROGEN CXIOES fc^ISSIUNS = 325.9o TTNS
Figure D-4. San Francisco Basin - Estimated Nitrogen Oxides Baseline
Emissions from Light Duty Vehicles in 1971
-------
2.7 Control Measures
Three vehicle emission control measures were Investigated for their
Impact on total light duty vehicle emissions. These were 1) a retrofit
of 200 percent of 1966 to 1970 model light duty vehicles, and 75 percent
of 1971 to 1974 model light duty vehicles, with an oxidizing catalytic
converter, 2) a retrofit of 95 percent (assumed based on expected approval
of applicable devices in near future) of the light duty 1955 to 1965 vehicle
population by 1975 with a spark advance disconnect (whereas the baseline
control provides for retrofit of domestic cars upon change of ownership),
and 3) an inspection and maintenance idle test program for all light duty
vehicles. The anticipated emission reductions expected for those vehicles
targeted for catalytic converter installations is 50 percent for THC and
CO, and zero percent for nitrogen oxides (D-7). The revised implementa-
tion schedule and coverage for VSAD add-on control for 1955 to 1965 will
result in emission reductions (in percent) which are equivalent to the
difference between a retrofit population adjustment factor of .95 and
that factor which was previously used for each of the baseline years under
the prior implementation plan. The inspection/maintenance idle test pro-
gram is expected to provide a six percent reduction in total hydrocarbons
and a three percent reduction in carbon monoxide (D-7). These reductions are
based on an expected ten percent initial failure rate occurring during the
Idle test inspection. The subsequent mandatory maintenance of the vehicles
found to be in violation would result in the stated emission reductions.
The overall impact of these two control measures on the baseline emis-
sion values are computed by applying the reduction factors to the appropriate
model year emission factors. The results are summarized in Section 3.3.3.
3. HEAVY DUTY GASOLINE POWERED VEHICLE EMISSIONS
Heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicle emissions are calculated using
the same procedure as that for light-duty vehicle emissions.
3.1 Emission and Deterioration Factors
The heavy-duty vehicle emission rates reflect the special case in
California where earlier and stricter standards have been implemented.
Exhaust emission factors are given in Table D-8.
D-17
-------
Table D-8. Heavy Duty Gasoline-Powered Vehicle Exhaust
Emission Factors, California Only (Reference D-l)
Carbon Monoxide Exhaust Hydrocarbons Nitrogen Oxides
Model Year Gm/Mi Gm/Mi Gm/Mi
Pre-1970 140 17.0 9.4
1970-1971 130 16.0 9.2
1972 130 13.0 9.2
1973-1974 130 13.0 9.2
1975 81 4.1 2.8
Crankcase and evaporative emission rates are shown in Table D-9.
Table D-9. Heavy Duty Gasoline-Powered Vehicle Crankcase and
Evaporative Hydrocarbon Emissions by Model Year
for California (Reference D-l)*
Model Year Hydrocarbons, (Gm/Mi)
Pre-1960 3.0
1961-1963 3.0
1964-1967 3.0
1968-1969 3.0
1970-1971 3.0
1972 3.0
1973 on 0.8
Due to a lack of actual heavy-duty deterioration information, light-
duty deterioration values are used for controlled heavy-duty vehicles, with
control by model year offsets. (1968 light-duty figures are used for 1973
and later controlled heavy-duty vehicles). The deterioration factors are
tabulated from the light-duty deterioration tables of Reference (D-l).
3.2 Heavy Duty Vehicle Speed and VMT
Average speed and heavy-duty vehicle VMT data are available from
transportation studies conducted by the MTC (D-6). Table D-5 of the
previous section gives the breakdown of heavy duty VMT and speed for the
base year and projected years in the San Francisco Basin. The speed
emission adjustment factor is determined using the same technique as for
light duty vehicles.
The values extracted from this document were adjusted to reflect the in-
stallation of PCV crankcase devices on pre-1963 vehicles. The emission
factor 3.0 was obtained by communication with the EPA Region 9 Office.
D-18
-------
3.3 Model Year Distribution
The heavy duty vehicle model year distribution was determined from
published vehicle registration data from the Department of Motor Vehicles
(D-8). This vehicle data is segregated in terms of automobiles and com-
mercial vehicles. While the commercial vehicle tabulation was known to
include a large number of light duty vehicles, such as pickups and vans
(and also includes diesel -powered trucks), it's model year distribution was
considered to be representative of the heavy duty vehicle distribution.
Table D-10 contains the commercial vehicle model distribution for the year
1972. The distribution is calculated for statewide values since a
distribution is not available for the particular region under consideration.
The annual mileage distribution of heavy-duty gasoline powered
vehicles is shown in Table D-10. The distribution is obtained from the
publication "1971 Motor Truck Facts" (D-9). Weighted annual travel by model
1s determined as indicated in Table D-10.
Heavy duty vehicle mileage data must be manipulated to segregate
diesel from gasoline powered motive types (diesel -powered trucks average
greater annual mileage and emit at different rates than gasoline -powered
trucks). Based on the Motor Vehicle Department Gross Report (D-10), it is
determined that 225,653 vehicles were registered as vehicles rated over
6,000 pounds (or "heavy duty") at the end of 1972. Of these vehicles,
66,970 are diesel -powered. Additional information from Motor Vehicle
Statements of transactions (D-ll) shows another 14,000 diesel vehicles were
exempt from state registration (state, county, or government-operated
vehicles). It was therefore estimated that a proportionate number
x 225,653 = 47,172) (Reference D-9)
of unlimited heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicles fell within this
category.
Those vehicles which come from out-of-state, yet perform their
travel within California boundaries, account for 28,000 more commercial
vehicles, of which 50 percent are assumed to be diesel s. Consequently,
total heavy duty diesel vehicles in California (end of 1972) total
94,800, and all heavy duty vehicles (gasoline and diesel) total 300,825.
Hence 68.5 percent of all heavy duty vehicles are gasoline-powered.
D-19
-------
Table D-10. Commercial Vehicle Model Year Distribution
o
I
ro
o
California, 1972
Model Year
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59 & Prior
TOTAL
Total
Registered
Comnercialv
Vehicle la)
18260S
159155
149022
162294
142569
110410
119853
116632
111162
90743
70534
53385
59446
395488
1923302
Fraction
of
Total
Vehicles
.0950
.0827
.0775
.0844
.0741
.0574
.0623
.0606
.0578
.0472
.0367
.0278
.0309
.2056
1.00
Miles^
Driven
in
Preceding
Year
7500
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
10000
1 0000
10000
10000
10000
10000
1 0000
10000
Weighted
Miles
Driven in
Preceding
Year
713
827
775
844
741
574
623
606
578
472
367
278
309
2056
9763
Fraction of
Total of all
Vehicle
Mileage
.073
.0847
.0794
.0864
.0758
.0587
.0638
.062
.0592
.0483
.0375
.0284
.0316
.2105
(a) Reference D-8
(b) Reference D-9
-------
The foregoing relationships were used to adjust the state motor
vehicle registration data to determine the gasoline-powered heavy-duty
vehicle population model distribution. Total regional VMT for the San
Francisco Basin was then calculated as shown on Table D-ll.
This value of VMT was then related to that calculated for diesel
powered heavy-duty vehicles (see following section) to establish the
portion of all heavy-duty VMT (as given by transportation studies in
the region) which is diesel or gasoline powered. Using this approach,
it was determined that gasoline powered heavy-duty vehicles account for
39.3 percent of all heavy-duty travel miles. This percentage (assumed
to be the same in future years) was then applied to VMT estimates for
the area, given only in terms of either light or heavy-duty mileage,
to establish the miles driven by the gasoline heavy-duty vehicles.
Subsequently, this value was incorporated with other pertinent vehicle
data (discussed earlier in this section) to calculate baseline emissions.
The results of these computations are presented in Section 3.3.3.
3.4 Heavy-Duty Diesel Powered Vehicles
Emissions resulting from operation of heavy-duty diesel powered
vehicles are calculated in a similar manner as gasoline powered heavy-
duty vehicles.
Emission factors for uncontrolled diesel powered heavy-duty
vehicles are available from Table 3-2 of EPA Document AP-42 (D-12). These
factors apply to vehicles prior to 1975 models. In 1975 and thereafter,
new standards apply. The new standards will limit diesel exhaust emission
to 1.05 grams THC per mile, and 2.270 grams CO per mile. Evaporative
and crankcase emissions for diesels are considered negligible in the
totals.
The effect of deterioration on exhaust emissions from diesel vehicles
is considered negligible.
Total VMT is calculated as shown in Table D-12. The value is related
to that calculated for heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicle VMT in order
to determine the portion of total heavy-duty VMT each vehicle motive-type
accounts for. This ratio is computed because VMT data (to be used in
D-21
-------
Table D-ll. VMT for Heavy Duty Gasoline Powered Vehicles for (Base Year 1971)
San Francisco Air Basin
Model
Year
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59 & Prior
TOTAL
Vehicle
Model
Distribution
.095
.0827
- .0775
.0844
.0741
.0574
.0623
.0606
.0578
.0472
.0367
.0278
.0309
(B) (C) B x C
Total VMT per Total VMT
Vehicles Vehicle in ,.. in Preceding
Preceding year^ ' Year
3732 7500 27.99 x 106
3249
3044
3315
2911
2255
2447
2380
2270
1854
1442
1092
1214
10000
10000
1 0000
10000
10000
1 0000
10000
1 0000
1 0000
1 0000
10000
^~~ *" 355.490 x 106
39281^ 383.480 x 106
(a) Reference D-8. The commercial vehicle total for this region was adjusted to reflect only heavy duty
vehicles which are gasoline powered.
(b) Reference D-9
-------
Table D-12. Calculated VMT for Heavy-Duty Diesel Powered Vehicles -
San Francisco Air Basin
c
B VMT per B X C
Model Model / x Total Vehicle in , » Total VMT in
Year Distribut.* ' Vehicles Preceding Year^ ' Preceding Year
Base Year ,
1971 1972 & 1971 .105 1,897 14,000 26.558 X 10°
? 1970 and prior .895 16,172 35,000 566.020 X 106
IN3 ~~~~~~~~~~~"~~~~"~~
CO
TOTAL 18,069^ 592.578 X 106
(a) Vehicle model distribution assumed same as for heavy-duty gasoline powered vehicles.
(b) Reference D-8. This vehicle data for Sacramento region was adjusted to reflect only
heavy-duty vehicles which are diesel-powered.
(c) Reference D-4.
-------
emission calculations) is expressed as overall mileage by all heavy-duty
VMT which is generated by diesel type vehicles. The result is that
60.7 percent of all heavy-duty travel is performed by diesels. This
value is assumed to remain constant in future years.
Table D-13 demonstrates the organization of pertinent data and
calculations required to obtain the baseline hydrocarbon emissions. Pro-
jected emissions are calculated based on VMT predictions for heavy-duty
VMT provided by MTC studies (D-6). Computations of baseline CO and NO
X
emissions were carried out in the same fashion and are given in
Section 3.3.3.
4. MOTORCYCLES
Baseline motorcycle emissions for RHC are computed as illustrated in
Tables D-14 and D-15. The motorcycle population is segregated into two
classifications: two-stroke motorcycles, and four-stroke motorcycles.
Two-stroke motorcycles constitute 38 percent of the statewide population
of licensed motorcycles (D-13). The overall motorcycle population for a
given region is determined from Motor Vehicle Department registration
data (D-14). Projected cycle population in future years is determined by
a mathematical correlation of cycles with projected personal income in
the region (see Appendix B). Neither the projected nor the present popu-
lation figures reflect the unlicensed off-road motorcycles which number
approximately one-third of the registered motorcycle population (D-15).
Off-road motorcycles were eliminated from the emission analysis, however,
as it was felt that their remote operation in rural areas plays a negli-
gible role in the total air pollution problem.
Emission factors for two-stroke and four-stroke motorcycles were
derived from the seven-mode test procedure of California, and are given
in Reference D-4. Exhaust, crankcase, and evaporative emission factors
were combined together since it was known that the rigor of maintaining
separate computations for the emission category would have a minor
effect on the outcome of reactive hydrocarbon emissions, and have no
effect on CO or NO (crankcase and evaporative losses represent
/\
hydrocarbon emissions only). This is true for the case of reactive
hydrocarbons because: 1) The crankcase and evaporative emissions are
D-24
-------
Table D-13. Diesel Baseline RHC Emissions -
San Francisco Bay Area
Year Model
Considered Year
1970
1975
1977
1980
71 & 70
67 &
prior
76 & 75
75 &
prior
78 & 77
76 & 75
75 &
prior
81 & 80
79 75
74 &
prior
(A)
% of
(B)
Annual
VMT
A x B
Weighting
Total / v per ,.v Factor for
Models13' Vehicle^' VMT per year
.105
.895
.105
.895
.105
.168
.727
.105
.380
.515
14,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
35,000
14,000
35,000
35,000
1
31
32
1
31
1
5
25
32
1
13
18
,470
,325
,795 .
,470
,325
,470
,880
,445
,795
,470
,300
,025
% of al
(A)
1 Total
Vehicle VMT
Mileage per Day
.044
.955
.044
.955
.044
.179
.775
.044
.405
.549
108,683
2,358,938
2,467,621
147,753
2,757,925
2,905,678
136,262
554,338
2,400,066
3,090,666
150,080
1,381,149
1,872,223
3,403,422
. (D) (C)
Hydrocarbon Conversion
Emission, » Factor x
Factor * ' Reactivity
gm/mi Factor
3.36
3.36
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36
1.05
1.05
3.36
1.10xl06x.
1.10xl06x.
1.10zl06x.
1.10xl06x.
1.10x106x.
1.10xl06x.
1.10xl06x.
1.10xl06x.
1.10x106x.
1.10xl06x.
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
99(d)
(AxBxC }
Emissions
tons /day
.402
8.718
9.120
.147
10.193
10.340
.158
.640
8.870
9.668
.173
1.595
6.920
8.688
(a) Calculated in Table D-l.
(b) Total VMT based on transportation studies by Division of Highways (D-6). These values are in terms of all heavy duty
vehicles and must be adjusted (60.7% diesel) to reflect only diesel population.
(c) EPA preliminary issue of emission factors to be incorporated in revision of EPA document AP-42 (D-7).
(d) .99 = reactivity factor obtained from verbal communication with EPA (D-16).
-------
Table D-14. Motorcycle (2 Stroke) RHC Baseline Emissions -
San Francisco Air Basin
Year
1971
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle/ »
Population^
47,032
57,767
66,292
78,085
(B)
Miles /.,
per Year^'
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor/ %
gm/mi ^c;
15.35
15.35
15.35
15.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gin/ day
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
(E)
Reactivity
FactorW
.96
.96
.96
.96
Overal 1
Factor
(CxDxE)
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
44.5 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
188 x 106
231 x 105
265 x 106
312 x TO6
Emissions
tons/ day
8.36
10.3
11.8
13.9
o
I
ro
(a) Based on MVD data (D-14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with reaional personal income
(see Appendix E).
(b) Reference D-17.
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crankcase, and .35 evaporative emissions (D-4).
(d) Private communication with EPA (D-16), during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle hydrocarbon
emissions were issued.
NOTE: 4 strokes constitute 62% of cycle population (based on EPA tech support document for metrop. L.A. region)
-------
Table D-15. Motorcycle (4 Stroke) RHC Baseline Emissions -
San Francisco Air Basin
Year
1971
1975
1977
1980
(A)
Motorcycle/ x
Population1 ;
76,738
94,252
108,161
127,404
(B)
Miles ,K,
per Year(b)
4000
4000
4000
4000
(C)
Emission
Factor/ v
gm/mi vc;
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
(D)
Conversion
Factor
tons/year
gm/day
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
3.02 x 10"9
(E)
Reactivity
Factor^
.86
.86
.86
.86
Overall
Factor
(CxDxE)
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10"9
11.3 x 10~9
11.3 x 10"9
Total
Miles
per Year
306 x TO6
377 x 106
433 x 106
510 x 106
Emissions
tons/day
3.5
4.3
4.9
5.8
(a) Based on MVD data (D-14), and projections based on TRW regression-correlation with regional personal
income (see Appendix E).
(b) Reference D-17.
(c) Emission Factor of 4.35 is made up of 3.3 exhaust, .7 crankcase, and .35 evaporative emissions.
(d) Private communication with EPA (D-16), during which preliminary reactivity factors for motorcycle
hydrocarbon emissions were issued.
Note: 4 strokes constitute 62% of cycle population (based on EPA tech support document for metropolitan
L. A. region).
-------
relatively small in comparison to exhaust emissions, and 2) the reactive
factors for crankcase* evaporative, and exhaust hydrocarbons are not
substantially different (D-16).
Since exhaust emissions from motorcycles are uncontrolled, and no
controls are scheduled, the effect of deterioration on exhaust emissions
was considered negligible.
The miles driven per year were estimated to be the same for all models
at 4,000 (D-17) and were assumed to remain unchanged in future years.
Based on the information above, two-stroke and four-stroke motorcycle
emissions were computed for the case of hydrocarbon, CO, and NO pollutants,
/\
The overall results are tabulated in Section 3.3.3.
D-28
-------
5. REFERENCES
D-l. D. S. Kircher and D. P. Armstrong, "An Interim Report on
Motor Vehicle Emission Estimation," EPA, October 1972.
D-2. R. L. Polk and Company, National Vehicle Registration Service,
"Passenger Cars in Operation as of July 1, 1972," Compilation
from Official State Records.
D-3. Memorandum to G. C. Hass, Chief of Vehicle Emission Control
Program, from Ray Ingels, ARB, Revision and Extension of
Report "Vehicle Miles Driven per Year by Age of Vehicle,"
October 16, 1972.
D-4. ARG, "Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory 1970-1980," Preliminary
Report, February 16, 1973.
D-5. G. Hass, et al., "Task Force Report on Periodic Vehicle
Inspection and Maintenance for Emissions Control and Recom-
mended Program for California," October 1972.
D-6. Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission, "BATS Study,"
1968.
D-7. EPA, Title 40 - Protection of Environment, Chapter 1, "Require-
ments for Preparation, Adoption, and Submittal of Implementation
Plans," April 17, 1973.
D-8. California Department of Motor Vehicles, AMIS Status as of
January 10, 1973. 1972 Registrations.
D-9. Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc., 1971 Motor Truck
Facts.
D-10. "California Department of Motor Vehicles, Statistical Record
on Motive Power Body Type and Weight Divisions for Automobiles,
Motorcycles, Commercial Trucks and Trailers," Gross Report,
January 1 to December 31, 1972.
D-ll. California Department of Motor Vehicles, "Statement of Trans-
actions and Total Fees Collected," January 1973.
D-12. EPA, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, February
1972.
D-13. Automotive Engineering, "Small Engine Emissions and Their
Impact," April 1972.
D-14. California Department of Motor Vehicles, Statistics on Number
of Vehicles Registered 1 January through 31 December 1972.
D-29
-------
D-15. Automotive Environmental Systems, "Uncontrolled Vehicle
Emission Study for the California Air Resources Board,"
Interim Report.
D-16. Private communication with EPA regarding preliminary reactivity
factors for motorcycle and diesel hydrocarbon emissions.
D-17. Southwest Research Institute, Emission Factors and Impact
Estimates for Light-Duty Air-Cooled Engines and Motorcycles,
January 15, 1972.
D-30
-------
APPENDIX E
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS
1. GENERAL APPROACH
The basic equation used for calculating aircraft emissions of total
hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen for a specific air-
craft class is as follows:
Emissions of a specific pollutant =
emission factor for
the aircraft class
number of engines on
aircraft in the class
number of LTO
cycles performed by
the aircraft class
Emission factors are documented by the EPA (E-l) in terms of pounds of
pollutant emitted per engine per Landing Takeoff (LTO) cycle and are
presented in Table E-l. If types of aircraft within a class have different
numbers of engines, an average number for the class may be used, or the LTO
for the class may be segregated according to engine number.
The number of LTO cycles performed by each type of aircraft within a
region must be known or estimated for the base year associated with that
region. The aircraft classes designated by EPA are shown in Table E-2.
One special case of base year emission calculations differs from
EPA emission factor documentation. This special case involves Aircraft
Class 3 only, and results from the fact that aircraft in this class
(primarily Boeing 727's, 737's, and Douglas DC-9's) underwent a burner can
retrofit program from 1970 to 1972. Although the object of this program
was to reduce the exhaust smoke from these aircraft, additional effects
were the reduction of hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions, and the
increase of oxides of nitrogen emissions. The emission factors before and
after the program were as follows (E-2):
THC CO . N0₯
J\
Pre-retrofit 4.9 Ib/engine/LTO 20.0 Ib/engine/LTO 10.2 Ib/engine/LTO
Post-retrofit 3.5 Ib/engine/LTO 17.0 Ib/engine/LTO 12.2 Ib/engine/LTO
E-l
-------
Table E-l. Emission Factors Per Landinq-Takeoff Cycle for Aircraft
(Lbs/Engine and Kg/Engine) (Reference E-l)
Aircraft Class
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total Hydrocarbons
Lb
12.2
41.2
4.9a
2.9
3.6
1.1
0.40
40.7
.52
2.7
9.93
20.4
Kg
5.5
18.7
2.2a
1.3
1.6
.5
.18
18.5
.24
1.2
4.5
9.3
Carbon Monoxide
Lb
46.8
47.4
20. Oa
6.6
15.8
3.1
12.2
304.0
5.7
5.7
15.1
152.0
Kg
21.2
21.5
9.0a
3.0
7.17
1.4
5.5
138.0
2.6
2.6
6.85
69.0
Nitrogen Oxides
Lb
31.4
7.9
10. 2s
2.5
1.6
1.2
0.047
.40
.57
2.2
3.29
.20
Kg
14.2
3.6
4.6a
1.1
.73
.54
.021
.18
.26
1.0
1.49
.09
I
ro
a This value describes emissions prior to burner can retrofit.
-------
Table E-2. EPA Aircraft Classification
(Reference E-l)
Aircraft
Class
f Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Aircraft
Class
Name
Jumbo Jet
Long Range Jet
Medium Range Jet
Air Carrier
Turboprop
Business Jet
General Aviation
Turboprop
General Aviation
Piston
Piston Transport
Helicopter
Military Transport
Military Jet
1 i
Military Piston
Example Aircraft
and Number of
Events
!
Boeing 747 (4)
Lockheed L-1011 (3)
McDonald Douglas DC-10
(3)
Boeing 707 (4)
McDonald Douglas DC -8
(4)
Boeing 737, 727
McDonald Douglas DC-9
(2)
Convair 580 (2)
Electra L-188 (4)
Fairchild Hiller
FH-227 (2)
Lockheed Jetstar (2)
Cessna 210 (1)
Piper 32-300 (1)
Douglas DC-6 (4)
CONV 440 (2)
Sikorsky S-61 (2)
Vertol 107 (2)
Lockhead (C-130)
(4)
Engines Most
Commonly Used
Pratt & Witney
JT-9D
Pratt & Witney
JT-3D
Pratt & Witney
JT-8D
Allison 501 -Dl 3
General Electric
CJ610
Pratt & Witney
JT-12A
Pratt & Witney
PT-6A
Teledyne-Contin-
ental 0-200
Lycoming 0-320
Pratt & Witney
R-2800
General Electric
CT-58
Alliston T56A7
(T-PROP)
General Electric
J-79
Continental J-69
Curtiss-Wright
R-1820
E-3
-------
It was assumed, for simplicity, that the program proceeded at a constant
rate through the three year period. Thus, in mid-year 1970, for example,
the program was 1/6 complete, and the average emission factors for this
base year were:
THC: 4.9 Ib/engine/LTO - 1/6 x (4.9 - 3.5) Ib/engine/LTO =4.7 Ib/engine/LTO
CO: 20.0 - 1/6 x (20.0 - 17.0) = 19.5
NO : 10.2 - 1/6 x (10.5 - 12.2) = 10.5
rt
The emission factors for all three base years of concern in this study
are given in Table E-3 for Class 3 aircraft.
Table E-3. Emission Factors for Class 3 Aircraft
Pollutant
THC
CO
NOV
x
(Units: Ib/engine/LTO)
1970
4.7
19.5
10.5
1971
4.2
18.5
11.2
1972
3.7
17.5
11.9
The equations and data used for projecting aircraft emissions to
1975, 1977, and 1980 are shown in Table E-4. The reader will note that
this table does not include information for military aircraft. In
some cases, growth data was obtained for particular military air bases;
in most cases, however, insufficient data was available for reasonably
accurate projections of military aircraft emissions, and operations
growth and emission reduction effects in future years were ignored.
The first data column in the table provides estimates (E-2) of engine
life for turbines (15 years) and pistons (20 years). The second column
lists the equations derived for estimating future emissions from known
base year emissions (Egy), growth rate (G), and emission reductions (R).
Egy is expressed in terms of tons/day of the pollutant from the indicated
aircraft class. G is the fraction increase of base year emissions,
except when used in calculating Egg, the emissions for 1980, where E7Q
is the synthetic base year, and growth is expressed as a fraction increase
E-4
-------
Table E-4. Data for Computation of Projected Civil Aircraft Emissions
Aircraft Engine
Class Life. I (yr)
1 . Jumbo Jet 1 5
2. Long Range Jet IS
3. Medlun Range Jet 15
71 4. Air Carrier 15
Cn Turboprop
S. Business Jet 15
6. General Aviation 15
Turboprop
7. General Aviation 20
flston
8. Piston Transport 20
9. Helicopter* IS
E75
E77
E78
E80
£?5
E77
£
E80
E75
E77
E78
E80
(See
(See
(See
(See
(See
(See
Emission Equations
E (tons/yr) B.Y.
" EBY
" EBY
'EBY
E78
" EBY
" EBY
" EBY
'E78
' EBY
EBY
'Ere
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
Class
(l+i>)
(1+G)
(1+G)
(1+G (1-R) - R ( £ ))
(1+G) (1-R)
(1+G) (1-R)
(1+G) (1-R)
(1+G (1-R) - R ( £))
(1+G) (1-R)
(1+G) (1-R)
(1+G) (1-R)
(1+6 (1-R) - R ( £ ))
1)
1)
1)
1)
1)
1)
: '70
0
0
0
-
0.06
0.33
0.39
-
0.26
0.26
0.26
-
(See
(See
(see
0
0
0
-
(See
Emission Reductions.
HC
'71 '72 '78 '70
0 0
0 0
0 0
0.70
0.06 0.06
0.33 0.33
0.39 0.39
0.70
0.17 0.05
0.17 0.05
0.17 0.05
0.70
Class 1)
Class 1)
Class 1)
0 0
0 0
0 0 -
0.50
-
Class 1)
0
0
0
-
0.015
0.077
0.093
-
0.13
0.13
0.13
-
(See
(See
(See
0
0
0
-
-
(See
R (Fraction of Base Year Emissions)
CO NOX
'71 '72 '78 '70 '71 '72
00-
0 0
0 0 -
- ' - 0.60
0.015 0.015
0.077 0.077
0.093 0.093
0.60
0.08 0.03
0.08 0.03
0.08 0.03
0.60
Class 1)
Class 1)
Class 1)
0 0
00-
00-
0.50
I
Class 1)
000
000
000
-
(See Class 1)
-0.03 -0.09 -0.16
-0.03 -0.09 -0.16
-0.03 -0.09 -0.16
.
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1)
(See Class 1)
'78
-
-
-
0
-
-
-
0
* It Is assumed that all have turbine engines.
-------
1n emissions from 1978. Similarly, emission reduction is expressed as
a fraction decrease of base year emissions for the indicated projection
year. The reduction 1s based on 1978 emissions for calculating projected
1980 emissions. The derivation of values for G and R will be discussed
later.
The equations used for Aircraft Class 1 and Classes 4 through 9 are
identical. Emissions 1n 1975, 1977, and 1978 are calculated by simply
applying the appropriate growth factor to the base year emissions for each
class. Here, 1978 emissions are calculated only for use in projecting
1980 emissions. The expression for EQO differs from the preceding equations
in the table because of proposed Federal aircraft emission regulations which
affect all new engines produced after 1 January 1979 (E-3). This expression
contains essentially three terms and was derived as follows:
1. 2. 3.
1980 Emissions = 1978 emissions + emissions increase - emissions reduction
due to growth in due to engine
operations replacement
Term 1: 1978 Emissions = E7g, as previously calculated
Term 2: Emissions increase due to growth in operations = G X (1-R) XE^g
(NOTE: Since this growth occurs after the proposed emission
regulations come into effect, the growth must be modified
by the application of an appropriately reduced emission
rate, ergo the (1-R) factor.)
1 Qflfl 1 Q7ft
.-~~-^4- _ n v /i you-1 y/o ^r
78
I gOQ ] Q-7O
Term 3: Emissions reduction due to engine replacement = R X ( \ )xE
= R X ( ) xE?8
where i. is the life of the engine. The fraction 2/1 represents the
frr.non of the aircraft engines of a particular class in 1978 which will
be replaced with new engines by 1980. This fraction effects a
proportionate reduction in emissions, since the replacement engines must
comply with the 1 January 1979 emission standards.
E-6
-------
Thus, the emissions equation for 1980 reduces to the following:
E80 = E78 (1 +G (1-R) -R
-------
Where:
R is the appropriate reduction factor for 1975 (discussed later
in this text).
Thus,
E75 = EBY + (6 X EBY) - R X (HG) X EBY
= EBY (14G) (1-R)
Emissions for 1977 and 1978 are calculated similarly.
For Class 3 aircraft, similar logic leads to identical equations, this
time because the retrofit program, as described previously in this text,
was at a different stage of completion for each base year used, whether
1970, 1971, or 1972. Thus, the effective reduction in emissions from the
base year to 1975, 1977, or 1978 depends on the base year selected.
Emission reductions are shown in Table E-4 for each base year,
each projected year, each pollutant, and each aircraft class. Emission
( . .
reductions effective in 1975, 1977, and 1978 result from the burner can
retrofit programs involving Class 2 and Class 3 aircraft, described earlier
in the text. All Class 2 'aircraft had the same (pre- retrofit) emission
factor, regardless whether the base year was 1970, 1971 , or 1972. However,
the future emission factor depends on the projected year, since the retrofit
program is planned for 1975 through 1977. Thus, since the pre-retrofit total
hydrocarbon emission factor for Class 2 aircraft was 41 Ib/engine/LTO and
the post-retrofit emission factor will be 25 Ib/engine/LTO, the average
emission factor in 1975 will be:
41 Ib/engine/LTO - 1/6 x (41 - 25) Ib/engine/LTO
and the reduction factor R will be:
1/6 x (41 25) = 0.06 (in other words, 6%)
E-8
-------
Reductions for 1977 and 1978 were calculated similarly and appear in
Table E-4.
For Class 3 aircraft, the reduction depends on the base year, since
the burner can retrofit program was carried out from 1970 through 1972.
The emission factors for Class 3 aircraft are shown in Table E-3 for all
three base years. Thus, since the post-retrofit total hydrocarbon emission
factor is (as was indicated earlier) 3.5 Ib/engine/LTO, and the 1970
emission factor was 4.7 Ib/engine/LTO, the reduction R for 1975, 1977,
and 1978 (i.e., any year after the retrofit program was completed but before
new standards come into effect) is:
4.7 Ib/engine/LTO - 3.5 Ib/engine/LTO B n ?fi
4.7 lb/eng1ne/LTO
Reductions corresponding to the other two base years are shown on Table E-4.
Emission reductions for all classes of aircraft between 1978 and
1980 are a result of the proposed Federal emission standards, to be
effective on new turbine and piston aircraft engines starting 1 January 1979.
The emissions from each new engine (i.e., each engine manufactured on or
after 1 January 1979) will be lower than the emissions from its older
(i.e., pre-1979) counterpart by the estimated (E-2) reduction values shown
in Table E-4. A reliable estimate for the reduction to be expected for
oxides of nitrogen has not yet been developed, and is assumed to be zero
for the time being.
The following sections describe how the aircraft emissions were
estimated for civilian airports and military air bases, respectively, in
the San Francisco Bay Area.
E-9
-------
2. CIVILIAN AIRPORTS
The San Francisco Bay Area APCD Study, entitled "The Aviation Effect
on Air Quality,"(E-4) 1S the source of base yeas and projected data for the
three major airports and other smaller airports in the San Francisco Air
Basin. The airports represented are San Francisco International, Oakland
International, San Jose Municipal, Livermore, Sonoma County, Hayward,
Buchanan, Napa County, San Carlos, Palo Alto, Reid-Hillview, and the other
small air fields totalled.
The APCD Study provides a description of each airport in terms of
Air Carrier and General Aviation activities, and includes an identifica-
tion of aircraft types within these activities. In order to compute
emissions generated by the various aircraft at San Francisco Bay Area
airports, each aircraft type has been re-classified (in the analysis of
this report) to comply with the EPA aircraft classification. The EPA
emission factors were then directly applied to these aircraft classifica-
tions (i.e., Classes A, B, and C in the APCD Study are interpreted as
equivalent to EPA Class 7 aircraft).
The census data is presented in number of operations per aircraft.
The EPA emission factors are expressed in terms of pounds of pollutant
per engine per landing-takeoff cycle. In order to apply EPA emission
factors directly to census data, two data adjustments are made:
1) Since the data is given in terms of number of operations,
where an operation is defined as either a landing or a
takeoff, it is therefore divided by 2 to give the number
of LTD cycles.
2) Operations data for aircraft with more than one engine is
multiplied by the number of engines for complete representa-
tion of all engines.
As described in the APCD Study, the present aircraft activity census
for each airport is given for the period April 1969 to March 1970.
Forecasted aircraft activity is given for the years of 1975, 1980, and
1985. The forecast is made in terms of two types of aviation: general
E-10
-------
and commercial air carrier. The basis for the APCD forecast of general
aviation activity is the ABAG Technical Memorandum 11-1 (E-5) which provides
estimates of future maximum capacity for the San Francisco Bay Area air-
ports. Future commercial air carrier operations are forecasted by refer-
ence to the BASAR Aviation Forecast (E-6). In each case, the aviation projec-
tions have been provided for the years 1975, 1980, and 1985.
Table E-5 shows the listed general aviation and air carrier operations
activity for each airport and for each aircraft class at these airports.
The values for 1970, 1975, and 1980 are extracted from the APCD Study
(with appropriate conversions to the EPA aircraft classification types).
Linear interpolations are performed to determine the aircraft class
operations totals for 1971 (the base year), 1977, and 1978.
Table E-5 also shows the activity growth factors, from the designated
base year, for each airport and class for 1975, 1977, 1978, and 1980.
Growth factors were computed by taking each airport-class operations
figures for 1975, 1977, and 1978 and dividing by the 1971 activity figure
for each case. One is then subtracted from the quotient to yield growth
in terms of the fraction of the base year (1971) operations. The growth factor
1980 is computed on the basis of growth from the 1978 projected activity.
The 1978 base was used to accommodate the format for emission projections
dictated by the equations of Table E-4, Data for Computation of Projected
Civil Aircraft Emissions.
Total hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen emissions
for the base year 1971 are computed by using the interpolated 1971
operations activity for each class at each airport, and emission
factors from a preliminary revision of EPA document AP-42 (E-l ). The pro-
cedure for calculation is given by:
EBY
operations\ /pollutant emission factor] /N pnn.-np-)
year I Vin Ib/engine/LTO / T engines/
(
where EBy is the base year emission in tons/day for a specified aircraft
class, A is the operations activity for the specified aircraft class in
E-ll
-------
Table E-5. Aircraft Operations Activity for San Francisco Air Basin
Base Year and Projected Years (Page 1 of 4)
ro
Total
Aircraft Operations
Airport Class Per Year
1970 1971 1975
San
Francisco
International
A1 rport
Oakland
International
Ai rport
(South &
North)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
8.4
149.1
148.5
68.9
0.1
0.1
2.7
0.1
26.1
30.8
35. 6
16.0
1.1
2.8
277.5
5.7
23.1
Base
Year
22.4
145.8
144.5
e;.o
0.1
0.1
2.7
0.1
26.1
30.6
34.2
14.3
1.6
5.3
302.8
6.7
24.0
78.6
132.8
128.4
34.6
0.1
0.1
2.9
0.1
26.1
17.6
29.8
28.8
7.3
3.5
15.5
404.2
10.5
27.4
6,
Growth in 75 Operations
(fraction of base Per Year
year value) 1977
2.51
-0.10
-0.13
-0.79
0
0
0.07
0
0
0
-0.03
-0.21
-0.51
1.19
1.93
0.34
0.57
0.14
96.8
131.2
128,8
36.2
0.1
0.1
3.0
0.1
26.1
33.2
41.6
41.1
10.3
5.1
22.6
463.2
12.3
30.3
G,
Growth in 77 Operations
(fraction of base Per Year
year value) 1978
3.32
-0.11
-0.12
-0.71
0
0
0.11
0
0
0.89a
0.36
0.18
-0.28
2.19
3.27
0.53
0.84
0.26
106.0
130.4
129.1
37.0
0.1
0.2
3.0
0.1
26.1
41.1
47.5
47.3
11.9
5.9
26.2
492.6
13.2
31.7
G,
Growth in 78 Operations
(fraction of base Per Year
year value) 1980
3.73
-0.12
-0.12
-0.68
0
1
0.11
0
0
1.349 .
0.55
0.36
-0.17 "
2.69
3.94
0.63
0.97
0.32
124.2
128.8
129.5
38.6
0.1
0.2
3.1
0.1
26.1
57.3d
59.3
59.7
14.9
7.5
33.3
551.6
15.0
34.6
Growth in 80
(fraction of
1978 value)
.17
-.02
.01
.04
.00
.00
.03
.00
.00
.39
.25
.26
.25
.27
.27
.12
.14
.09
-------
Table E-5. Aircraft Operations Activity for San Francisco Air Basin
Base Year and Projected Years (Page 2 of 4)
Total
Aircraft Operations
Airport Class Per Year
1970 1971 1975
(Base Year)
G, 6, 6, 6.
Growth 1n 75 Operations Growth 1n 77 Operations Growth 1n 78 Operations Growth 1n 80
(fraction of base Per Year (fraction of base Per Year (fraction of base Per Year (fraction of
year value) 1977 year value) 1978 year value) 1980 1978 value)
San Jose
Municipal
Airport
Llvermore
Sonoma
County
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
8.9
38.6
34.8
1.3
3.3
336.7
7.0
5.0
1.1
2.7
256.5
5.7
4.1
0.4
1.0
97.8
2.2
1.5
11.4
35.0
33.6
1.6
5.0
330.0
7.1
5.3
1.5
5.0
278.3
6.4
4.8
0.6
2.0
129.4
2.6
1.9
12.5
21.1
20.4
28.9
2.7
11.6
303.1
7.6
6.3
3.2
14.0
365.6
9.2
7.6
1.4
6.1
158.1
4.0
3.3
0
0.85
-0.42
-0.14
0.69
1.32
-0.08
0.07
0.19
1.13
1.80
0.31
0.44
0.58 .
1.33
2.05
0.22
0.54
0.74
23.0
28.7
28.4
40.5
3.2
14.3
291.9
7.8
7.1
3.8
17.2
360.6
9.4
8.6
2.0
9.1
181.7
4.7
4.5
0.848
1.52
-0.19
0.21
1.0
1.86
-0.12
0.10
0.34
1.53
2.44
0.30
0.47
0.79
2.33
3.55
0.41
0.81
1^37
28.3
32.6
32.3
46.3
3.5
15.7
286.3
7.8
7.6
4.1
18.8
358.2
9.4
9.0
2.4
10.5 .
193.6
5-1
5.0
1.26
1.86
-0.08
0.38
1.19
2.14
-0.13
0.10
0.43
1.73
2.76
0.29
0.47
0.88
3.00
4.25
0.50
0.96
1.63
38.8»
40.2
40.3 '
62.4
4.0
18.4
275.1
8.0
8.4
4.8
22.0
353.2
9.6
10.0
3.0
13.5
217.2
5.9
6.2
.37
.23
.2*
.35
.14
.17
.34
.02
.10
.17
.17
- .01
.02
.11
.25
.29
.12
.16
.24
-------
Table E-5. Aircraft Operations Activity for San Francisco Air Basin
Base Year and Projected Years (Page 3 of 4)
Ai rport
Total
G,
Growth in 75
(fraction of base
year value)
G,
Operations Growth in 77 Operations
Per Year (fraction of base Per Year
1977 year value) 1978
G, G,
Growth in 78 Operations Growth in 80
(fraction of base Per Year (fraction of
year value) 1980 1978 value)
Hayward
Buchanan
Napa
County
San
Carlos
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
1.1 1.5
2.8 5.0
269.7 288.9
6.0 6.6
4.3 5.0
1.4 1.8
3.4 5.5
324.9 333.0
7.2 7.6
5.1 5.6
0.8 1.2
1.9 3.8
180.5 202.9
4.0 4.7
2.9 3.5
1.2 1.6
3.0 4.8
285.0 301.1
6.3 6.9
4.5 5.1
3.2
14.0
365.6
9.2
7.6
3.2
14.0
365.6
9.2
7.6
2.6
11.2
292.5
7.4
6.1
3.2
14.0
365.6
9.2
7.6
1.
1.
0.
0.
0.
0.
1.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
0.
0.
0.
1.
1.
0.
0.
0.
13
80
27
39
52
78
55
10
21
36
17
95
44
58
74
0
92
22
33
49
3.8
17.2
360.6
9.4
8.6
3.8
17.2
360.6
9.4
8.6
3.5
15.5
316.8
8.3
7.7
3.8
17.2
360.6
9.4
8.6
1.53
2.44
0.25
0.43
0.72
1.11
2.13
0.08
0.24
0.54
1.92
3.08
0.56
0.77
1.20
1.38
2.58
0.20
0.36
0.69
4.2
18.8
358.2
9.4
9.0
4.2
18.8
358.2
9.4
9.0
3.9
17.7
328.9
8.7
8.4
4.2
18.8
358.2
9.4
9.0
1.8
2.76
0.24
0.43
0.80
1.33
2.42
0.08
0.24
0..61
2.25
3.66
0.62
0.85
1.40
1.63
2.92
0.19
0.36
0.77
4.8
22.0
353.2
9.6
10.0
4.8
22.0
353.2
9.6
10.0
4.8
22.0
353.2
9.6
10.0
4.8
22.0
353.2
9.6
10.0
.14
.17
-.02
.02
.11
.14
.17
-.02
.02
.11
.23
.24
.07
.10
.19
.14
.17
-.01
.02
.11
-------
Table E-5. Aircraft Operations Activity for San Francisco Air Basin
Base Year and Projected Years (Page 4 of 4)
Aircraft
Airport Class
Total
Operations
Per Year
1970 1971 1975
(Base Year)
G,
Growth 1n 75
(fraction of base
year value)
Operations
Per Year
1977
Q
Growth In 77
(fraction of base
year value)
G. G.
Operations Growth In 78 Operations Growth 1n 80
Per Year (fraction of base Per Year (fraction of
1978 year value) 1980 1978 value)
5
Palo Alto 6
7
8
9
5
Reid 6
Hill view 7
8
9
5
6
Others 7
8
9
0.8
1.9
181 .4
4.0
2.9
0.9
2.2
212.8
4.7
3.4
3.1
7.7
726.8
16.1
11.5
1.2
3.8
203.8
4.7
3.5
1.3
4.4
239.2
5.5
4.2
5.7
20.0
942.0
21.9
16.6
2.6
11.2
293.4
7.4
6.1
3.0
13.2
344.6
8.7
7.2
16
69
1803
45
37
1.17
1.95
0.44
0.58
0.74
1.31
2.0
0.44
0.58
0.72
1.81
2.45
0.92
1.06
1.23
3
15
317
8
7
3
16
348
9
8
28
126
2445
63
60
.5
.5
.3
.3
.7
.7
.7
.0
.1
.3
.2
.0
.8
.6
1.92
3.08
0.56
0.77
1.20
1.85
2.80
0.46
0.66
0.98
3.91
5.3
1.60
1.91
2.65
3.9
17.7
329.3
8.7
8.4
4.1
18.5
349.8
9.2
8.9
34
154.8
2766.0
73.2
72.4
2.25
3.66
0.62
0.85
1.40
2.15
3.21
0.46
0.67
1.12
4.97
6.74
1.94
2.34
3.36
4.8
22.0
353.2
9.6
10.0
4.8
22.0
353.2
9.6
10.0
46
212
3408
92
96
.23
.24
.07
.10
-- .19
.17
.05
.10
.04
.12
.35
.37
.23
.26
.33
Calculated using 1975 as base year
-------
operations per year, and N is the number of engines for the specified air-
craft class. Table E-6 shows a sample calculation for San Jose Municipal
Airport for the base year 1971 emissions. From the example 1t can be
seen that all class 3 and 7 aircraft do not possess the same number of
engines. Hence, class 3 and 7 have been segregated by aircraft engine
number to account for the total number of "engine LTOs."
Table E-7 shows the projected total hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide,
and oxides of nitrogen emissions in tons/day for the years 1971, 1975,
1977, and 1980 for each aircraft class and for each airport. This table
is generated by computations according to the equations specified in
Table E-4, and using the growth factors, G (see Table E-5) which are
calculated for the Bay Area only. An example of such a computation is
illustrated below.
Consider the projected hydrocarbon emissions at San Jose Municipal
Airport for class 2 aircraft in 1977. According to Table E-4 , the
expected emissions in 1977 will be
E?7 = EBY (HG) (1-R)
where EDV = class 2 HC emissions in base year (1971) = 1.287 tons/day
BY (Table E-6)
G = growth in fraction increase of base year = 1.52 (Table E-5)
R = expected emission reduction, in fraction of base year
emission = .33 (Table E-4)
substituting'values,
E?7 = 1.287 (HI.52) (1-.33) = 2.173 tons/day in 1977
In 1980,
E8Q = E78 U (1-R) - »]
i i L J
L = engine life = 15 years
G = growth in fraction increase of year 1978 - .23
R = emission reduction in fraction of year 1978 = .70
where
E7g = EBY .(1*6) (1-R) = 1.287 (HI.86) (1-.39) = 2.245
H.23 (1 = .7) '- ij^i 1 = 2.
Ego = 2.245 [H.23 (1 = .7) - ^^- | = 2.191 tons/day in 1980
E-16
-------
Table E-6. Base Year Aircraft Emissions at San Jose Municipal Airport
Total Operations Engine LTD
Number of Engines Cycles^
Per Aircraft (Thousands)
Ai rcraf t
Class
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3 LTO
in 1971
(Thousands)
0
11.4
15.6
19.4
33.6
1.6
5.0
286.5
21.8
7.1
5.3
Cycles = Operations
1971 Emissions
(Tons/Day)
THC CO
NO,
2
3
1
2
2
1
22.8
44.7
33.6
1.6
5.0
165.1
7.1
2.65
TOTAL =
1.287
0.257
0.133
0.008
0.008
0.090
0.395
0.002
2.180
1.479
1.123-
0.304
0.035
0.021
0.551
2.959
0.005
6.477
.247
.686
.115
.004
.008
.011
.004
.002
1.077
-------
The emission factors are shown in Table E-l. Future emissions for
Hamilton were calculated by reducing the total LTD cycles by the negative
growth factor and by applying the projected class distribution factor for
future years. The emissions for all airports in the San Francisco Bay
Area are shown in Table E-7.
E-18
-------
Table E-7. Base Year and Projected Aircraft Emissions for San Francisco Bay Area Civilian Airports
(Page 1 of 4)
Aircraft THC (Tons/Day)
Airport Class, 1971 1975 1977 1980
CO (Tons/Day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
NOX (Tons/Day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
San Francisco 1
International 2
Airport 3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Total
Oakland 1
International 2
Airport 3
(North & South)4
5
6
7
8
9
Total
San Jose 1
Municipal 2
Airport 3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Total
0.749
16.493
1.164
0.246
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.009
18.668
3.473
0.284
0.057
0.008
0.008
0.082
0.373
0.008
4.293
1.287
0.257
0.133
0.008
0.008
0.090
0.395
0.002
2.180
2.629
13.953
0.840
0.137
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.009
17.575
0.588
3.160
0.187
0.028
0.018
0.023
0.110
0.586
0.009
4.709
0.417
2.235
0.124
0.115
0.013
0.018
0.083
0.424
0.002
3.431
3.236
9.896
0.850
0.071
0.000
0.000
D.002
0.005
0.009
14.069
1.111
3.165
0.278
0.041
0.026
0.034
0.125
0.686
0.010
5.476
0.767
2.173
0.173
0.161
0.016
0.023
0.079
0.435
0.003
3.830
3.400
7.966
0.774
0.068
0.000
0.000
t).002
0.004
0.008
12.222
1.470
3.369
0.333
0.048
0.031
0.041
0.134
0.735
0.010
6.171
0.959
2.191
0.193
0.185
0.017
0.024
0.086
0.395
0.003
4.053
2.871
18.973
8.501
0.560
0.002
0.000
0.048
0.042
0.102
31.099
3.997
0.877
0.186
0.038
0.022
2.530
2.855
0.095
10.600
1.479
1.123
0.304
0.035
0.021
0.551
2.959
0.005
6.477
10.077
16.829
6.800
0.313
0.002
0.000
0.051
0.042
0.102
34.216
2.256
3.819
0.693
0.091
0.083
0.064
3.390
4.482
0.108
14.986
1.603
2.695
0.600
0.261
0.059
0.049
0.507
3.166
0.006
8.946
12.398
15.747
6.885
0.162
0.002
0.000
0.043
0.042
0.102
35.381
4.264
5.028
1.035
0.134
0.121
0.094
3.870
5.253
0.120
19.919
2.949
3.446
0.837
0.368
0.070
0.172
0.485
3.255
0.007
11.589
13.838
14.229
6.545
0.168
0.002
0.000
0.049
0.040
0.096
34.967
5.843
5.916
1.149
0.162
0.149
0.115
4.175
5.681
0.125
23.314
3.868
3.890
0.966
0.444
0.075
0.065
0.529
3.018
0.007
12.862
1.926
3.160
2.781
0.212
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.010
8.089
0.666
0.674
0.049
0.004
0.009
0.010
0.004
0.009
1.425
0.247
0.686
0.115
0.004
0.008
0.011
0.004
0.002
1.077
6.760
2.844
2.637
0.045
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.010
12.296
1.514
0.646
0.580
0.024
0.009
0.026
0.013
0.006
0.010
2.828
1.075
0.457
0.433
0.099
0.007
0.019
0.010
0.004
0.002
2.106
8.320
2.812
2.667
0.061
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.010
13.870
2.861
0.906
0.867
0.035
0.013
0.038
0.015
0.007
0.011
4.753
1.978
0.622
0.603
0.139
0.008
0.023
0.010
0.004
0.003
3.390
10.651
2.718
2.698
0.070
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.010
16.147
4.921
1.292
1.260
0.051
0.019
0.057
0.018
0.009
0.013
7.640
3.322
0.869
0.857
0.214
0.010
0.029
0.013
0.004
0.003
5.321
-------
Table E-> Base Year and Projected Aircraft Emissions for San Francisco Bay Area Civilian Airports
(Page 2 of 4-)
ro
o
Airport
Hayward
Total
Buchanan
Aircraft
Class
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
Total
Napa County
Total
San Carlos
Total
Palo Alto
Total
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
THC (Tons/Day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
CO (Tons/Day)
1971 1975 1977 1980 1971
N0x (Tons/Day)
1975 1977 1980
0.007
0.008
0.075
0.368
0.002
0.460
0.009
0.008
0.098
0.424
0.002
0.541
0.006
0.006
0.060
0.262
0.001
0.335
0.008
0.007
0.092
0.385
0.002
0.494
0.006
0.006
0.060
0.262
0.001
0.335
0.015
0.022
0.095
0.511
0.003
0.646
0.016
0.020
0.108
0.513
0.003
0.660
0.013
0.018
0.086
0.414
0.002
0.533
0.016
0.020
0.112
0.512
0.003
0.663
0.013
0.018
0.086
0.414
0.002
0.533
0.018
0.027
0.094
0.526
0.003
0.668
0.019
0.025
0.106
0.526
0.003
0.679
0.019
0.245
0.094
0.464
0.002
0.822
0.019
0.025
0.110
0.524
0.003
0.681
0.017
0.024
0.094
0.464
0.002
0.601
0.019
0.029
0.088
0.505
0.003
0.644
0.020
0.026
0.101
0.505
0.002
0.654
0.019
0.027
0.096
0.485
0.002
0.629
0.020
0.026
0.105
0.531
0.003
0.685
0.019
0.027
0.096
0.485
0.002
0.629
0.033
0.021
2.582
2.748
0.020
5.404
0.039
0.023
2.979
3.166
0.022
6.229
0.026
0.016
1.821
1.957
0.014
3.834
0.035
0.020
2.695
2.875
0.020
5.645
0.026
0.016
1.821
1.957
0.014
3.834
0.070
0.058
3.279
3.820
0.030
7.257
0.069
0.059
3.277
3.831
0.030
7.266
0.056
0.047
2.622
3.095
0.024
5.844
0.070
0.058
3.288
3.824
0.030
7.270
0.056
0.042
2.622
3.092
0.024
5.841
0.083
0.072
3.228
3.930
0.034
7.347
0.082
0.072
3.217
3.926
0.040
7.337
0.076
0.065
2.841
3.467
0.031
6.480
0.083
0.072
3.234
3.910
0.034
7.333
0.076
0.065
2.841
3.464
0.031
6.477
0.090
0.078
3.042
3.772
0.035
7.017
0.089
0.077
3.056
3.663
0.034
6.919
0.086
0.076
2.906
3.548
0.033
6.649
0.090
0.077
3.047
3.753
0.034
7.001
0.086
0.076
2.906
3.620
0.033
6.721
0.003
0.008
0.006
0.004
0.004
0.027
0.009
0.009
0.002
0.004
0.003
0.027
0.033
0.006
0.006
0.002
0.002
0.019
0.004
0.008
0.009
0.004
0.004
0.029
0.003
0.006
0.006
0.000
0,002
0.017
0.006
0.022
0.010
0.005
0.006
0.049
0.016
0.023
0.002
0.005
0.004
0.050
0.006
0.018
0.008
0.003
0.003
0.038
0.008
0.023
o.on
0.005
0.006
0.053
0.007
0.018
0.009
0.000
0.004
0.038
0.008
0.027
0.010
0.006
0.007
0.058
0.034
0.028
0.002
0.005
0.005
0.074
0.009
0.024
0.009
0.003
0.004
0.049
0.009
0.029
o.on
0.005
0.007
0.061
0.009
0.024
0.009
0.000
0.004
0.046
0.010
0.035
0.010
0.006
0.008
0.069
0.024
0.036
0.002
0.005
0.005
0.072
0.012
0.035
0.010
0.004
0.004
0.065
0.012
0.037
0.011
0.006
0.008
0.074
0.012
0.035
0.010
0.000
0.004
0.061
-------
Table E-7.
Base Year and Projected Aircraft Emissions for San Francisco Bay Area Civilian Airports
(Page 3 of 4)
Airport
Livermore
Total
Sonoma
County
Total
Aircraft THC (Tons/Day)
Class 1971 1975 1977 1980 1971
CO (Tons/Day)
1975 1977 1980
NOX (Tons/Day)
1971 1975 1977 1980
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
0.007
0.007
0.082
0.356
0.002
0.454
0.003
0.003
0.038
0.145
0.001
0.190
0.015
0.020
0.107
0.513
0.003
0.658
0.007
0.009
0.046
0.223
0.002
0.287
0.018
0.024
0.107
0.523
0.003
0.675
0.010
0.014
0.054
0.262
0.002
0.342
0.018
0.025
0.100
0.502
0.003
0.648
0.008
0.011
0.050
0.222
0.002
0.293
0.033
0.021
2.492
2.726
0.019
5.291
0.013
0.008
1.164
1.083
0.007
2.275
0.070
0.059
3.264
3.925
0.030
7.348
0.030
0.024
1.420
1.668
0.012
3.154
0.083
0.072
3.240
4.007
0.031
7.433
0.044
0.036
1.641
1.960
0.016
3.697
0.089
0.078
3.040
3.844
0.034
7.085
0.036
0.031
1.536
1.657
0.013
3.273
0.003
0.008
0.008
0.004
0.003
0.026
0.001
0.003
0.004
0.001
0.001
0.010
0.006
0.022
0.010
0.006
0.005
0.049
0.002
0.009
0.005
0.002
0.002
0.020
0.008
0.028
0.010
0.006
0.005
0.057
0.003
0.014
0.006
C.002
0.002
0.027
0.010
0.035
0.010
0.006
0.006
0.067
0.-003
0.013
0.005
0.001
0.002
0.024
-------
Table E-7.
(Page'foVS)
f°r * Francisco Bay Area Civilian Airports
m
PO
tv>
Airport
Reid-
Hill view
Total
Others
Total
Aircraft
Class
5
6
7
8
9
5
6
7
8
9
1971
0.007
0.007
0.062
0.307
0.001
0.384
0.047
0.030
0.277
1.222
0.006
1.582
THC Tons/Day)
1975 1977
0.0162
0.0210
0.0893
0.4851
0.0017
0.6133
0.1025
0.1035
0.5318
2.5173
0.0134
3.2685
0.0200
0.0266
0.0905
0.5096
0.0020
0.6487
0.2308
0.1890
0.7202
3.5560
0.0219
4.7179
1980
0.021
0.027
0.091
0.497
0.002
0.638
0.284
0.236
0.867
4.408
0.026
5.821
1971
0.028
0.019
1.883
2.292
0.016
4.238
0.206
0.085
8.440
9.124
0.065
17.920
CO (Tons/Day)
1975 1977
0.0647
0.0570
2.7115
3.6214
0.0275
6.4821
0.4491
0.2933
16.2048
18.7954
0.1450
35.8876
0.0800
0.0722
2.7492
3.8047
0.0317
6.7378
1.0115
0.5355
21.9440
26.5508
0.2373
50.2791
1980
0.087
0.075
2.749
3.713
0.033
6.657
1.304
0.703
26.426
32.912
0.298
61.643
1971
0.003
0.007
0.007
0.003
0.003
0.023
0.021
0.033
0.028
0.012
o.on
0.105
NOX (Tons/Day)
1975 1977
0.0069
0.0210
0.0101
0.0047
0.0052
0.0479
0.0458
0.1139
0.0538
0.0247
0.0245
0.2627
0.0086
0.0266
0.0102
0.0050
0.0059
0.0563
0.1031
0.2079
0.0730
0.0349
0.0402
0.4591
1980
0.011
0.031
0.011
0.005
0.007
0.065
0.169
0.350
0.101
0.051
0.064
0.735
TOTAL - ALL AIRPORTS 29.91 33.58 33.21 33.09 102.8 144.5 170.0 184.1
10.88 17.84 22.30 30.34
-------
3. MILITARY AIR BASES i ;
There are five military air bases in the San Francisco Bay Area.
These bases are shown in'Table E-8, along with the respective number of
operations in 1970. A military aircraft operation is defined as either a
landing or a takeoff; thus, to derive a figure for Landing Takeoff (LTO)
cycles, each value in Table E-8 is divided by two.
The LTO cycles are listed in Table E-9 for both military and civilian
operations at each base. Although the operations data used was actually for
the year 1970, it was assumed that no significant changes in military or civil
ian operations occurred between 1970 and the base year for this area, 1971.
Estimated LTO cycle growth is shown on the table for military and civilian
operations at each base. All these values, except one set, have been
assumed to be zero because of the uncertainty in predicting operations
changes at military bases. The one exception is Hamilton Air Force Base,
where the military aircraft operations have been estimated to decrease
50% in 1975 compared to operations in 1971. The basis for this decrease
is that Hamilton will phase out Air Force fighter plane operations and
convert completely to reserve operations, which made up about 20% of the
operations in 1971(E-7).
The distribution of operations by aircraft class at each base is also
shown on Table E-9, in terms of fractions of the military and civilian LTO
cycles for each year indicated. Civilian operations are estimated to be in
all cases single-engine general aviation piston planes (E-7, E-8). The
distributions at all bases, except Hamilton, are assumed to remain the same
in future years as they were in 1971. At Hamilton, the future distri-
butions reflect the increased reserve operations, which involve primarily
helicopters and C-130's.
The emissions in tons/day of total hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide,
oxides of nitrogen for each aircraft class at each base are shown in
Table E-10. The values in this table are calculated as follows:
emissions _ EPA emission 2Jlnes°Jn number of LTO distribution
per class - factor x ai?craft in x cycles for the x factor for
the class Class the class
E-23
-------
Table E-8. Aircraft Operations at Military Air Bases
in the San Francisco Bay Area (Reference E-9)
Air Base
Al ameda
Oakland, Ca.
Crows Landing
Oakland, Ca.
Moffett
Mountain View,
Ca.
Hamilton
San Francisco,
Ca.
Travis
Fairfield, Ca.
Operator
Navy
Navy
Navy
Air Force
Air Force
Number of
Operations3
Military
42,655
21 ,436
34,939
39,978
76,020
Aircraft
in 1970
Civilian
14,756
766
6,445
18,906
13,535
A Military Aircraft Operation is defined as either a landing or a
takeoff.
E-24
-------
Table E-9. Distribution and Growth of Aircraft Activity at Military Air Bases
in the San Francisco Bay Area
ro
tn
Air Base
Alameda
Crows Landing
Moffett
Hamilton
Travis
Operations
Type
Military
Civilian
Military
Civi-lian
Military
Civilian
Military
Civilian
Military
Total Estimated Growth, as
LTD Fraction Increase of
(1970) Total 1971 LTD
1975 1977 1980
21,332 000
7,378 000
10,718 0 0 0
383 0 00
17,470 000
3,222 000
19,989 -.50 -.50 -.50
9,453 000
38,010 0 00
Aircraft Aircraft
Class Type
11
7
11
7
4
11
7
9
10
11
7
11
1
A-3
Single
Trainer
Single
P-3
A-7
Single
HH3
HH53
C-130
F-106
Thunderbirds
ETC
Single
C-141
C-5
Number
of
Engines
2
1
1
1
4
1
1
2
4
1.5
1
4
4
Estimated Distribution as
Fraction of LTO Cycles of
Indicated Year
1971
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.10
0.80
1.00
0.70
0.30
1975
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0
1.00
0.70
0.30
1977
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0
1.00
0.70
0.30
1980
1.00
1.00
1.00.
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0
1.00
0.70
0.30
Civilian
6,768
Single
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Sources: U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy Representatives, Los Angeles, California.
-------
Table E-10. Aircraft Emissions From Military Air Bases in the San Francisco Bay Area
Aircraft Emissions (Tons/Day)
THC
1971
0.5802
0.0002
0.1457
0.0002
1.387
0.1188
0.0017
0.0014
0.0147
0.1631
0.0051
1 .4477
0.7623
0.0037
1975
0.5802
0.0002
0,1457
0.0002
1.387
0.1188
0.0017
0.0071
0.0739
0
0.0051
1 .4477
0.7623
0.0037
1977
0.5802
0.0002
0.1457
0.0002
1.387
0.1188
0.0017
0.0071
0.0739
0
0.0051
1 .4477
0.7623
0.0037
1980
0.5802
0.0002
0.1457
0.0002
1.387
0.1188
0.0017
0.0071
0.0739
0
0.0051
1 .4477
0.7623
0.0037
1971
0.8822
0.1232
0.2216
0.0063
0.3159
0.1807
0.0539
0.0156
0.0312
0.2481
0.1579
2.2015
2.9242
0.1130
CO
1975
0.8822
0.1232
0.2216
0.0063
0.3159
0.1807
0.0539
0.0780
0.1561
0
0.1579
2.2015
2.9242
0.1130
1977
0.8822
0.1232
0.2216
0.0063
0.3159
0.1807
0.0539
0.0780
0.1561
0
0.1579
2.2015
2.9242
0.1130
1980.
0.8822
0.1232
0.2216
0.0063
0.3159
0.1807
0.0539
0.0780
0.1561
0
0.1579
2.2015
2.9242
0.1130
1971
0.1922
0.0004
0.0482
0.0000
0.1196
0.0394
0.0002
0.0002
0.0120
0.054
0.0006
0.4796
1.9619
0.0004
u\j
1975
0.1922
0.0004
0.0482
0.0000
0.1196
0.0394
0.0002
0.0078
0.0602
0
0.0006
0.4796
1.9619
0.0004
X
1977
0.1922
0.0004
0.0482
0.0000
0.1196
0.0394
0.0002
0.0078
0.0602
0
0.0006
0.4796
1.9619
0.0004
1980
0.1922
0.0004'
0.0482
0.0000
0.1196
0.0394
0.0002
0.0078
0.0602
0
0.0006
0.4796
1.9619
0.0004
4.63 4.53 4.53 4.53 7.48 7.41 7.41 7.41 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91
-------
4. REFERENCES
E-l. EPA, "Aircraft," Revision to AP-42, 1973.
E-2. Private communication with Mr. Robert Sampson, EPA, Ann Arbor,
Michigan, May 1973.
E-3. EPA, Federal Register. December 1972.
E-4. Bay Area Air Pollution Control District, "Aviation Effect
on Air Quality," Regional Airport Systems Study, February 1971.
E-5. "ABAC Technical Memorandum 11-1," December 17, 1970.
E-6. Systems Analysis and Research Corporation, "BASAR Aviation
Forecast," Cambridge, Los Angeles, New York, Washington,
May 1970.
E-7. Private communication with U. S. Air Force Representative,
Los Angeles, California, May 1973.
E-8. Private communication with U. S. Navy Representative, Los
Angeles, California, May 1973.
E-9. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration,
Military Air Traffic Activity Report. Calendar Year 1970.
E-27
-------
APPENDIX F
AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS CONTROL
In this appendix are presented the data and calculations used to
estimate the emission reductions to be expected from modification of
ground operations at the major airports in the San Francisco Bay Area.
The taxi-idle procedure will be modified by reducing the number of engines
used by multi-engines turbine aircraft and by increasing the thrust
setting at which they operate. San Francisco International (SFO),
Oakland International (North and South) (OAK) and San Jose International
(SJC) are dealt with separately in this appendix, and the total aircraft
emissions reductions for the Bay Area are summarized at the end.
1. SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Table F-l shows the projected Landing Takeoff (LTO) cycles for each
combination of aircraft class and engine number. It will be necessary
to calculate for each combination the emissions to be expected in 1975,
1977, and 1980 from the current or "standard" method used for the taxi-
idle mode and to compare these estimated emissions with the expected
emissions from the modified method hypothesized for taxi-idle. The
procedure used to develop these estimates is nearly the same for each
of the three airports; San Francisco International will be discussed in
detail, and the other two will be presented in a parallel manner but will
be discussed more briefly.
The modal emission factors designated by EPA will be used to
translate the LTO data into emissions estimates. However, these factors
must be first modified to reflect the reductions due to the burner can
retrofit program planned for the three-year period from 1975 through
1977. This program is discussed more fully in Appendix E. These
reductions are presented in Table F-2.
F-l
-------
Table F-l . Projected Commercial Air Carrier LTO Cycles
at San Francisco International Airport (Reference E-l)
LTO (1. thousands) _
Class Per Plane 1975 197?a 1980
1 4 6.0 7.52 9.8
1 3 33.4 41.0 52.3
2 4 66.4 65.6 64.4
3 2 21.4 20.6 ig 3
3 3 42.8 43.8 45'4
Interpolated from 1975 and 1980 data.
Table F-2. Reductions Due to Class 2 Burner Can Retrofit
1975a 1977a 1978a
THC 6% 33* 39*
CO 1.5% 7.7% 9.3%
aAs percent of base year emissions
F-2
-------
Another modification results from the fact that emission factors will
be reduced between 1978 and 1980 due to the Federal program for new turbine
aircraft engines, which takes effect with all engines produced after
1 January 1979. This program is discussed in more detail in Appendix E.
The relationship between 1978 and 1980 modal emission factors is as
follows:
where
EF
80
EF
EF
L
R
G
80
78
= EF
78
2
(+ 6)
modal emission factor to be used for 1980 emissions
modal emission factor used for 1978 emissions
estimated life of turbine aircraft engine = 15 years
reduction in emissions due to new engine emission standards
growth in LTO from 1978 to 1980 for the aircraft combination
The values for R are discussed in Appendix E and are 0.70 for THC, and
0.60 for CO. The growth values are also discussed in Appendix E and,
for San Francisco International, are:
Class 1:
Class 2:
Class 3:
G = 0.17
G = -0.02
G = 0.01
The modal emission factors for the standard taxi-idle method are
shown in Table F-3.
Table F-3.
Standard Taxi-Idle Emission Factors
(Units: LB/Engine/Hr) (Reference E-2)
1975
1977
1978
1980
THC
CO
THC
CO
THC
CO
THC
CO
1
2
27.3 102
92.7 107
6.99 33.4
27.3 102
87.1 105
6.99 33.4
27.3 102
53.1 95.2
6.99 33.4
26.2 101
47.8 86.6
6.4 31.1
Smokeless JT8D; Emission Factors include reductions due to burner can
retrofit.
F-3
-------
Standard taxi-idle emissions were calculated as follows:
Taxi-idle Time in Number of
= emission X taxi-idle X LTD X engines per
factor mode plane
The time in the taxi-idle mode is 26 minutes ( E-2) for each of the
three classes. Estimates for standard taxi-idle emissions for 1975, 1977
and 1980 are shown in Table F-4 for each class-engine combination.
Table F-4. Standard Taxi-Idle Emissions - SFQ
(Units: Tons/Day)
Number of 1Q7I- 1Q77 lqfln
Aircraft Engines Per 1975 1977 198°
Class Plane THC CO THC CO THC CO
1
1
2
3
3
4
3
4
2
3
.3859
1.6113
14.5028
.1762
.5287
1.442
6.0202
16.7406
.8420
2.5261
.4837
1.9779
13.4626
.1696
.5410
1.807
7.3901
16.2293
.8106
2.5852
.6050
2.4214
7.2530
.1455
.5135
2.3321
9.3345
13.1404
.7071
2.4951
To calculate the emission reduction per engine due to the higher thrust
setting, Figure F-l was assumed to be typical ( E-3) of turbine engines
used on aircraft in Classes 1, 2, and 3. According to this curve, the
emission reductions which result from reducing the number of engines from
four to two or from two to one (i.e., doubling the thrust per operating
engine) correspond to points A and C for CO and B and D for THC. Thus,
the percent reductions are as follows, reading data points from the curve:
For THC, 90 - 38 CQqf
g0 = 58%
Cn rn 109 - 70 «
For CO, = 37%
F-4
-------
Normal Taxi-idle
120 -
,Mod1fied Taxi -idle - i Number of Engines
i Modified Taxi -idle - y Number of Engines
100
80
at
r: 60
10
If}
40
20
20 40
Percent Thrust
60
Figure F-l. Hydrocarbon and Carbon Monoxide Emissions
From a Typical Aircraft Turbine Engine (JT3D)
(Reference E-3)
F-5
-------
Reducing the number of operating engines from three to one corresponds
to moving from points A to E for CO and B to F for THC. Thus,
For THC,
90 - 26
~~9l5
= 71%
For CO,
109 - 62
109
= 43%
Table F-5 shows the development of modal emission factors for the modified
taxi-idle mode, using these percent reductions per operating engine. In
Table F-6, the effects of the higher thrust setting aid the reduction in
number of operating engines are combined in the estimates for emissions
for aircraft operating in this mode. These emissions were calcualted as
follows:
Modified taxi-
idle emissions
Modified
taxi-idle
emission
factor
Time in
taxi-idle
mode
X LTO X
Number of
engines used
for modified
taxi-idle
The time in the taxi-idle mode is assumed to be the same as in standard
taxi-idle -- 26 minutes.
Table F-7 shows the difference in emissions between the standard
taxi-idle and the modified taxi-idle at San Francisco International Airport.
F-6
-------
Table F-5. Development of Modified Taxi-Idle Emission Factors - SFO
No.
No. Engines
Reduction Per
Engine Due to
Modified Taxi-idle Emission Factors
Aircraft
Class
1
1
2
3
3
Engines
Per Plane
4
3
4
2
3
For Mod.
Taxi-idle
2
1
2
1
1
Mod. Taxi-idle0
THC
58%
71%
58%
58%
71%
CO
37%
43%
37%
37%
43%
1975
THC
11.466
7.917
38.934
2.936
2.027
CO
64.26
58.14
67.41
21.042
19.038
11
7
36
2
2
1977
THC
.466 64
.917 58
.582 66
.936 21
.027 19
CO
.26
.14
.15
.042
.038
1
THC
11.00
7.917
20.076
2.688
U856
980
CO
63.0
58.14
54.558
19.593
17.727
From Figure F-l.
Table F-6. Modified Taxi-Idle Emissions - SFO
No.
Aircraft Engines
Class Per Plane
1
1
2
3
3
4
3
4
2
3
1975
THC
.0810
.1557
3.0456
.0370
.0511
CO
.4542
1.124
5.2731
.2652
.4800
1977
THC
.1016
.1912
2.8271
.0356
.0523
CO
.5693
1.3800
5.1122
.2553
.4912
1980
THC
.1270
.2439
1.5231
.0306
.0496
CO
.7273
1.7911
4.1415
.2227
.4741
Time in Taxi-idle Mode = 26 Min., all 3 classes (Reference E-2).
-------
Table F-7. Reductions in Taxi-Idle Emissions Due to Modified Taxi-Idle
at San Francisco International (Units: Tons/Day)
No.
Engines
Aircraft Per 1975 1977 1980
Class
1
1
2
3
3
Totals
Plane
4
3
4
2
3
THC
.3049
1.4556
11.4572
.1392
.4776
13.8
CO
.9878
4.8962
11.4675
.5768
2.0461
20.0
THC
.3821
1.7867
10.6355
.1340
.4887
13.4
CO
1.2387
6.0101
11.1171
.5553
2.0940
21.0
THC
.4780
2.1775
5.7299
.1149
.4639
.9.0
CO
1.6048
7.5434
8.9989
.4844
2.0210
20.6
2. OAKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (NORTH AND SOUTH)
The effectiveness of modified ground operations at Oakland Inter-
national was analyzed exactly the same way as San Francisco International,
with the exception that the time in the taxi-idle mode was assumed to be
13 minutes rather than 26 minutes for each class. The reason for this is
that Oakland does not have enough passenger departures to be classified as
a large air traffic hub or a "Class A" airport as designated by EPA ( E-4).
One criterion for this EPA-proposed classification is that an airport have
at least one million enplaned passengers per year. A similar criterion
seems also to have been used for the designation of a typical large airport
for which time-in-mode data was developed by EPA ( E-2). Thus, since
Oakland International has approximately half the number of enplaned
passengers as the criterion specified ( E-5), it seems likely ( E-6) that
the time-in-mode for taxi-idle at Oakland would be approximately half the
time-in-mode at a typical large airport.
Tables F-8 through F-ll show data calculated for the Oakland Interna-
tional Airport.
F-8
-------
No.
Aircraft Engines
Table F-8. Standard Taxi-Idle Emissions - OAK
(Units: Tons/Day)
1975 1977
1980
Class
1
1
2
2
3
Aircraft
Class
1
1
2
2
3
Per Plane
4
3
4
3
3
No.
Engines
Per Plane
4
3
4
3
3
Table F-9.
No.
Engines
For Mod.
Taxi -idle
2
1
2
1
1
THC
.0438
.1814
1.6423
.3968
.0598
CO
.1637
.6777
1.8957
.4580
.2859
Development of Modi
Reduction
Engine Due
Mod. Taxi-
THC
58%
71%
58%
71%
71%
Per
to
idlea
CO
37%
43%
37%
43%
43%
THC
.0847
.3440
2.1542
.5002
.0881
fied Taxi -Idle Emi
Modified
1975
THC CO
11.466 64.26
7.917 58.14
38.934 67.41
2.027 19.038
2.027 19.038
CO
.3166
1.2853
2.5969
.6030
.4212
ssion Factors - OAK
Taxi-Idle Emission
(Ib/Enaine/Hr)
1977
THC CO
11.466 64.26
7.917 58.14
36.582 66.15
2.027 19.038
2.027 19.038
THC
.1496
.6020
1.8382
.4138
.1285
Factors
1980
THC
12.579
8.686
21.899
1.995
1.995
CO
.5873
2.364
3.4240
.7708
.6391
CO
69.155
62.569
61.186
19.50
19.5
From Figure F-l
-------
Table F-10. Modified Taxi-Idle Emissions - OAK
(Units: Tons/Day)
No.
Engines
Aircraft Per
1975
1977
1980
Class
1
1
2
2
3
Plane
4
3
4
3
3
THC
.0092
.05260
.68978
.00868
.01735
CO
.05158
.38627
1.1943
.08149
.16299
THC
.01779
.09976
.90475
.01164
.02556
CO
.09971
.73261
1.6360
.10934
.24006
THC
.03365
.18707
.77205
.01583
.03727
CO
.18501
1.3475
2.1571
.15477
.36432
Table F-ll. Reductions In Taxi-Idle Emissions Due to
Modified Taxi-Idle - OAK (Units: Tons/Day)
Aircraft
Class
1
1
2
. 2
3
Totals
No.
Engines
Per
Plane
4
3
4
3
3
1975
THC
.0346
.1288
.9525
.3881
.0425
1.5 1
CO
.1121
.2914
.7014
,3765
.1329
.6
1977
THC
CO
.0669 .2169
.2442 .5527
1.2495 .9609
.4886 .4937
.0625 .1811
2.1 2.4
1980
THC
.1160
.4149
1.0662
.3980
.0912
2.1
CO
.4023
1.0165
1.2669
.6160
.2748
3.6
3. SAN JOSE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
The same calculation procedure was used for San Jose as was used for
San Francisco and Oakland airports. The time-in-mode for taxi-idle was
estimated to be 13 minutes, using similar reasoning to that described for
Oakland. These data are presented in Tables F-12 through F-15.
F-10
-------
Table F-12.
No.
Aircraft Engines
1975
Standard Taxi-Idle Emissions - SJC
(Units: Tons/Day)
1977
1980
Class
1
1
2
3
3
Per Plane
4
3
4
3
2
Table F-13.
Aircraft
Class
1
1
2
3
3
No.
Engines
Per Plane
4
3
4
3
2
No.
Engines
For Mod.
Taxi -idle
2
1
2
1
1
THC
.11848
. 1 2903
.86526
.04239
.01413
CO
.44268
.48210
.99874
.20254
.06751
THC
.11069
.94656
1.3205
.06072
.01845
Development of Modified Taxi -Idle Emi
Reduction
Engine Due
Mod. Taxi-
THC
58%
71%
58%
71%
58%
Per
to
idlea
CO THC
37% 11.466
43% 7.917
37% 38.93
43% 2.027
37% 2.936
Modified
1975
CO
64.260
58.14
67.41
19.038
21.042
CO
.41357
.88415
1.5918
.29011
.08817
ssion Factors - SJC
Taxi-Idle Emission
(Lb/Engine/Hr)
1977
THC CO
11.466 64.260
7.917 58.14
36.582 66.150
2.027 19.038
2.936 21.042
THC
.10078
.40520
1.2385
.08366
.02365
Factors
THC
11.872
8.059
21.764
1.989
2.881
CO
.39515
1.5887
2.3030
.41150
.11632
1980
CO
68.645
62.107
60.707
19.426
21.470
From Figure F-l
-------
Table F-14.
Modified Taxi-Idle Emissions - SJC
(Units: Tons/Day)
No.
Engines
Aircraft Per
1975
1977
1980
Class
1
1
2
3
3
Plane
4
3
4
3
3
THC
.04976
.03742
.36337
.01229
.00593
CO
.27889
.27480
.62920
.11545
.04253
THC
.04649
.06863
.55459
.01761
.00775
CO
.26055
.50396
1.0029
.16536
.05554
THC
.04305
.11751
.52015
.02510
.01028
CO
.24895
.90556
1 .4509
.24513
.07659
Table F-15. Reductions in Taxi-Idle Emissions Due to
Modified Taxi-Idle - OAK (Units: Tons/Day)
1977
1980
Class
1
1
2
3
3
Totals
Plane
4
3
4
3
2
THC
.06872
.09161
.50189
.0301
.0082
0.7
CO
.16379
.2073
.36964
.08709
.02498
0.8
THC
.0642
.87793
.76591
.04311
.01070
1.8
CO
.15302
.38019
.5889
.12475
.03263
1.3
THC
.05773
.28769
.71835
.05856
.01337
1.1
CO
.1462
.68314
.8521
.1664
.03973
1.9
4. TOTAL AIRCRAFT EMISSION REDUCTIONS
The reductions to be expected at each airport are listed and summed
in Table F-16. These values are the differences between the estimates
for emissions from the standard taxi-idle procedure and emissions from the
modified taxi-idle procedure.
F-12
-------
Table F-16. Total Emission Reductions Due to Modified Taxi-idle
(Units: Tons/Day)
1975 1977 1980
Airport THC RHC ^JT THC RHC CO THC RHC CO
San Francisco 13.8 12.4 20.0 13.4 12.1 21.0 9.0 8.1 20.6
International
Oakland 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 3.6
International
San Jose 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.9
Municipal
Total 16.0 14.4 22.4 17.3 15.6 24.7 12.2 11.0 26.1
Reductions
Values shown are the differences between the standard taxi-idle
emissions and the modified taxi-idle emissions.
F-13
-------
5. REFERENCES
F-l. Bay Area Air Pollution Control District, "Aviation Effect on
Air Quality," Regional Airport Systems Study, February 1971.
F-2. EPA, "Aircraft," Revision to AP-42, 1973.
F-3. EPA, "Aircraft Emissions: Impact on Air Quality and Feasi-
bility of Control," 1973.
F-4. EPA, "Ground Operation of Aircraft to Control Emissions,"
Federal Register, December 12, 1972.
F-5. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration,
FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, 1970 Edition.
F-6. Private communication with EPA, May 1973.
F-14
-------
APPENDIX G
PUBLIC ATTITUDE SURVEY
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AQCR
Responses from Attitudinal Questionnaires sent to house-
holds in the San Francisco-Oakland metropolitan area in the San
Francisco Bay Air Quality Control Region were comprised of the
following distributions by annual family income and autos per
household.
Annual Number of Percent of
Family Income Respondents Sample
Less than $8, 000 80
$8, 000 to $15,000 167
More than $15, 000 137
Total 384 100.0
Autos Per Household
None 12
One 158
Two 182
Three or more 20
Unknown 12
Total 384 100.0
The locations of the respondents' households were:
San Francisco 85
Oakland 32
Richmond 21
San Mateo 21
Concord 19
Walnut Creek 14
Hayward 12
Other Cities 180
Total 384
Questionnaire responses were tabulated by income level and
car ownership status of each panel member's family. A summary
of the results of the survey follows.
G-1
-------
1. All autos made in 1975 and thereafter will be equipped with emission control devices to reduce ai
. pollution. If in 1975 you owned a car built before that year, how would you feel about a l.iw rc-
guirini; you to put emission control equipment which might cost $125 on your car? ("X" 1JKLOW)
2. How would you feel about this law if the cost was reduced by government subsidy to about $50?
("X" BELOW)
Feplinp Toward Law: 1. Cost $125 2. Cost $50
Very much in favor of Jaw. . 16. 1% 40. 8%
Somewhat in favor of law. . . 18. 3 22. 0
Somewhat against lav/ 22.4 12.8
Very much against law 43.2 24.5
3a. Even cars properly equipped with omission control equipment mij:ht still pollute the air if the cqu
ment war. not properly maintained. How would you fcrl about a law requiring periodic inspection
the emission control system to assure that it was working properly? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in Somewhat in Somewhat Very much
favor of law favor of law against law against law
46.1% 28.3% 11.8% 13.9%
3b. Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, \vhat would you consider a
reasonable cost for the inspection? (WRITE IN AMOUNT)
$ 7.40 Average
3c. Assuming you had to have your car inspected at least once a year, where do you think the inspection
should be made? ("X" ONE ONLY)
At state-operated inspection centers 41. 1%
At city-operated inspection centers 11. 1
At local service stations or garages 42.4
At some other place (Specify): 5.5
G-2
-------
San Francisco
To Me This Plan Is:
4a. Even if .ill autos were equipped with properly maintained
emission control systems, some cities might atill have auto
air pollution problems due lo the large number of cars
cither on the streets at the same time or concentrated in
particular areas. Listed below arc several possible ways
to rednc:-.' pollution under one or both of these conditions.
Please ttll me how you feel about each of these proposals.
("X" ONF: ON EACH LINE) "~~~
Proposal
a. i ;,-.-.! ! rationing 5. 0%
b. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto. 0.8
c. Very high ($200) registration fee per auto
hut only for the second, third, etc. ,
auto 12.4
d. Prohibit traffic and parking in central
business districts 29. 0
e. A tax on all day parking in central busi-
ness districts 21.4
f. A tax on parking in central business dis-
tricts regardless of whether a person
parked only one hour or all day 7.8
g. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways 1.9
h. Tolls on exit ramps of major freeways
and expressways but only when traffic
was heavy 3.7
i. Mandatory car pooling--allowing only
cars carrying at least: three persons
to use freeways during rush hours 14.2
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on major
expressways and streets 43. 7
19.6% 7.7% 15.1%
2.1 4.0 11.0
17.0 4.3 15.4
27.4 10.9 14.4
20. 1 A 11.9 13.8
13.2 12.4 21.0
6.1 8.2 13.3
6.4 9.1 13.1
A
17.4 7.6 15.5
27.6
6.1 10.3
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
G-3
-------
San Francisco
. Which of the proposals listed above would be the most acceptable? (Give Letter;) " '°
D 26.6%
\Vhich would be most unacceptable?
(Give Letter:) B , 50. 1%
. A 29. 0%
QUESTIONS S-f, ASK FOR INFORMATION RELAT">!G TO OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS.
CONSULT THEM, JF NECESSARY, FOR THE ANSWERS.
How often do the various members of your household travel by public transportation? (For ex-
ample, by bus, subway, or commuter train.)
Children
Husband Wife (Over 16 Years Old)
10.7% 8.4% 6.4%
3.4 6.5 2.7
4.8 9.4 1.7
9.6 13.5 3.4
64. 0 61.7 23.5
7.6 0.5 62.4
Three or more times a week .
One or two times a week
Once a. month
Once every three months ....
Never , . .
No household member
G-4
-------
c rate c.ich houccliold member's reason for using public transportation. (Rate the moot
t.int;ru.ison "1", the next moit important "2", the next "3", etc. If a household mcmbci
5c.
Please
import.int; , , .
never use's public transportation, "X" the "never use" box at the bottom of the list.)
Please rate each household member's reasons for traveling by auto. Follow the same procedure
as in Question 5b. (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER 5cJ
a..
b.
c.
d.
0.
f.
B-
h.
i.
j-
k.
1.
m.
Reasons
Cheaper
Faster
More comfortable . .
Safer for passenger.
Less congested
More available
More flexible (I can
come and go as
I please)
More relaxing (able
to read while
traveling)
Need car during the
(Jay
I do not have a
driver's license . .
Car is not available
when I need it ....
Other (Specify):
Never use ("X" Box)
5b. Public Transportation
Husband Wife
Children
(Over 16
Years Old)
1 1 1
597
476
6 10 2
229
852
9 8 10
'
348
Not Applicable
10 6 5
734
Negligible Response
225/329 220/369
67/112
5c. Auto Transportati
Chihh
(Over
Husband Wife Years
6 6
3 3
5 5
8 8
7 7
2 1
1 2
Not Applicable
4 4
Not Applicable
Not Applicable
Only transportation
15/329 19/369
7
2
5
8
6
3
1
4
avail
24/1
G-5
-------
San Francisco
Again, consulting other members of your household, please rate in order of effectiveness which items
below you fed would be most effective in encouraging the use of public transporation. (Rate the most
effective itrm a "1", the next most effective "2", the next "3", etc.)
Items;
Cleaner and newer vehicles. .
!'aster travel .
Air-conditioned vehicles ....
More frequent service .......
Lower fares
Parking facilities at stops or
stations
Shelters against bad weather
at stops or stations
Better security to assure
personal safety
More conveniently located
stops and stations
Other (Specify):
Children
Husband Wife (Over 16 Years Old)
8
1
2
1
2
9
1
2
Negligible
6-6
-------
San Francisco
(a. How would you or other household members feol about traveling to and from work in a ear pool?
("X" ONE ONLY)
Very interested 16.4%
Somewhat interested 25. 3
Not at all interested 34. 7
Already in car pool 8. 9
Do not travel to and from
work by car 14. 5
6b. If it became necessary to restrict the number of cars on expressways and streets in order to
reduce pollution and car pools became necessary, how difficult do you think it would be to get
into one an existing one or organize one amongst your friends, neighbors and/or work associates.
("X" ONE ONLY)
Extremely difficult 33. 6%
Very difficult 14. 9
Somewhat difficult 25. 5
Somewhat easy 12. 2
Very easy 4. 6
Extremely easy 1.4
Already in car pool 7. 9
G-7
-------
San Francisco
One of tl>e major cause* of areas of high pollution ia traffic
congestion. Pollution could be reduced if traffic congestion
and stop-and-go traffic was reduced. Listed below are
several ideas for reducing traffic congestion. Please tell
me how effective you think each of these ideas would be in
reducing congestion and pollution. ("X" ONE BOX FOR
EACH IDEA)
Idea:
a. Prohibit parking, loading snd unloading
on busy streets
b. Increase the number of one-way streets ....
c. Establish reversible lanes on busy streets
to be used during rush hours
d. Prohibit turns at busy intersections during
rush hours .
e. Widen major streets
f. Widen major streets at intersections only . .
g. Provide pedestrian underpasses and/or
overpasses .
h. improve timing of traffic signals
i. Increase the number and frequency of
radio traffic reports
j. Turn some existing lanes into "bus only"
and "car pool only" lanes on express-
ways and busy streets
Your ideas (Please List):
8.9%
22.7
24. 8 40. 6
0*.
54.7
34.9
5.8
47.0A
60.3
.34.6
43.0
35.3
38.5
34. 1
19.1
43.3 38.0
Prohibit parking in central business district
Restrict truck deliveries to nighttime or off-peak hours
Improve traffic law enforcement
Tax suburban cars entering central business district
Provide bicycle lanes
8.5
16.5
42.6
11.3
1.9%
5.0
17.7 16.9
2.2
5.6
1*. 3
12.7 1.7
5.0 0.6
27.9 1.7
7.4
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
G-8
-------
San Francisco
Since traffic congestion is most severe at times when people arc going to or coming from work,
one alternative for reducing congestion would be to have people start and stop work at different
times of the day. That is, some people would start work at 5:00 AM and quit at 2:00 PM. others
would work from 7:00 AM to 4:00 PM. others from 10:00 AM to 7:00 PM, etc. How do you feel about
this idea? ("X" ONE ONLY)
Very much in favor 39. 6%
Somewhat in favor 28. 7
Indifferent 14. 1
Somewhat opposed 9. 8
Very much opposed 7. 7
To Me This Plan Is:
Along with the air pollution problem, the country
may also be faced with a gasoline shortage. The
following methods have been suggested as ways
to both combat air pollution and conserve gaso-
line. How do you feel about each of these pro-
posals? ("X" ONE ON EACH LINE)
Proposal
a. Gasoline rationing with drivers being
allowed to purchase during a year:
about 90 percent of the fuel now used . 20. 3%
b. about 80 percent of the fuel now used . 5.4
c. about 2/3 of the fuel now used. . 8. 4
d. I An "Emissions" or "Smog" tax based on
the number of miles driven during a
year:
at $10 per thousand miles 6. 1
e. at $15 per thousand miles 3. 5
f. Doubling the price of gasoline and using
the additional revenue to improve mass
transit 6. 2
A- Indicates the weighted mean for each answer.
25. 1%
25.5
10.8
11
6
,6
,4
14.
18,
15,
12.
11.
2%
1
28.4%
18.6
16.3
14.2
30.
46.
8.1
8.4 12.2
2
2
65.0
Please record the model year of each car owned in your household. (WRITE IN BELOW
UNDER IQa)
Please estimate the number of miles each car was driven in the last year.
(WRITE IN NUMBER OF MILES UNDER lOb BELOW)
G-9
-------
San Francisco
10c. For each car, please estimate what percentage of last year's mileage w?3 accounted for by
driving outside your local metropolitan area. (For example, vacation, buoinese trips,
short weekend trips, etc.) (WRITE IN BELOW UNDER IQc)
10a IQb IQc
Last Year's Percentage of Mileage
Model Year Mileage Outside Local Area
I r.-l-M-TM-T-l -I __ ___-
Car #1 1968 11,370 29
Car #2 1968 9,320 26
Car #3
Car //4
1967
1965
8, 130
3,790
21
20
10d. 'low many licensed drivers arc there in your household? (WRITE IN)
Number of Licensed Drivers: 1.91 Average
10c. If better public transportation were available, would you consider disposing of any of the
cars you own?
Yes 10.5%
Maybe 18.0 lOf. How many? (WRITE IN) 1.03 cars
No 71.5 Average of Yes and Maybe
la. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is in your city? ("X'1 ONE BOX
UNDER lla BELOW)
lb. Overall, how serious a problem do you think auto air pollution is nationwide? ("X" ONE BOX
UNDER lib BELOW)
lla. City lib. Nationwide
Very serious problem 22.6% 37.0%
Serious problem 26.3 47.5
Slightly serious problem. . . 42.8 14. 1
No problem at all 8«2 *4
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San Francisco
12. If you have any views or comments regarding any questions or idea, please record
them. .
! I I
Provide safe, cheap, fast and reliable transit
Develop more efficient (better mileage) engines
Factories are the cause of the air pollution problem
Trucks, aircraft, buses and old, improperly maintained
autos are the major polluters
Poor people hit hardest by auto pollution controls
Develop new energy sources
Too many taxes already
Improve gas mileage on new automobiles
Limit auto and/or engine size
Speed up development of pollution-free automobiles
Limit the number of autos
Curtail teenage driving
Encourage use of bicycles--provide bicycle lanes
Provide incentives--such as tax deductions instead of added taxes-
to reduce auto travel (car pools, fewer cars per family, smaller
engines or cars, etc. )
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1 APPENDIX H
, RECENT CALIFORNIA AIR POLLUTION LEGISLATION
This appendix discusses several California air pollution bills which
are up for consideration during the current legislative session. The
status of these bills is presented as of June 14, 1973. Included here.
are the bills comprising the "nine-bill" program which is sponsored by
Assembly Speaker, Bob Moretti. Of the fourteen bills presented, it;
appears that only about six of them stand any chance of becoming law in
their present form.
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Assembly Constitutional Amendment 16 - Motor Vehicle Taxation and Revenues
Foran
This bill authorizes highway revenues to be used for construction
of public transit systems, control of environmental pollution caused
by motor vehicles, and payments of bonds issued for such purposes,
as well as for highway purposes, including enforcement of law thereon
and registration of motor vehicles.
Status: This bill is in the Senate Transportation Committee and will
probably die there.
Assembly Bill 266 - Inspection Maintenance: Passenger Vehicles South
Coast Air Basin
Foran
This act requires the State Air Resources Board to adopt passenger
vehicle emissions test procedures and standards for the South Coast Air
Basin and authorizes the Department of Consumer Affairs to be responsible
for operating inspection and testing stations.
Certificates of compliance will be issued by the Department of
Consumer Affairs when a vehicle meets the adopted emissions standards
and when a standard fee, as determined by the Department, is paid. These
fees will be deposited in the Air Pollution Control Fund. Upon initial
registration or renewals thereafter, the Department of Motor Vehicles will
require a Certificate of Compliance in the South Coast Air Basin.
.Motorcycle owners are exempt.
Status: This bill has been approved by the Assembly Committee on
Transportation, May 30, 1973, and sent to the Assembly Ways and Means
Committee. It will probably die in the Senate.
Assembly Bill 380 - Inspection, Maintenance 1n the SCAB
Deddeh
This bill requires the Department of Consumer Affairs, with the
cooperation of the State Air Resources Board, the Department of the
California Highway Patrol, and the Department of Motor Vehicles, to
plan and operate an experimental annual motor vehicle inspection,
diagnostic, and repair system, which is to be designed for the South
Coast Air Basin. It declares that an effective system of periodic
inspection, maintenance, and consumer education will reduce the level
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of vehicular air pollution, noise emission levels, improve safety, and
provide motorists with objective motor vehicle maintenance information.
Status; This bill was approved by the Assembly Committee on
Transportation, May 30, 1973, and sent to the Assembly Ways and Means
Committee. It will probably be passed by both houses and be signed by
the Governor. It has been endorsed by the Administration.
Assembly Bill 1074 - Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control
Diddeh/Papan/Wood
The State Air Resources Board would be required to establish
standards for accrediting exhaust emission devices which: (1) reduce
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxide emissions from motor
vehicle exhaust to specified levels (hydrocarbons 350 ppm, CO -- 2 per-
cent, nitrogen oxides -- 800 ppm); and (2) achieve a reduction of
hydrocarbon, CO, and NO emissions substantially below the standards for
A
any two pollutants set forth in specified sections of the Health and
Safety Code. If an exhaust emission device meets two out of the three
maximum levels, or if a device substantially reduces the emission of any
two of the three pollutants, the State Air Resources Board may accredit
such a device, provided that the emission level of the third pollutant
is not increased above the level it was before installation of the
device.
The Board is prohibited from requiring the installation of more than
one exhaust emission device or any vehicle even if two or more devices are
accredited. After at least one device is accredited, accreditation
of a device,unless it is as effective as any device previously accre-
dited, is prohibited. It specifies that any subsequent accreditation
of a more effective device shall not affect the accreditation of a
previously accredited device.
Status: This bill is ready for the third reading in the Assembly
Transportation Committee and will probably be passed by the Assembly. If
it passes the Senate, the Governor will probably sign it.
Assembly Bill 1279 - Gasoline Additives
Sieroty
The State Air Resources Board would be authorized, under specified
conditions, to establish standards for composition or chemical or physical
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properties of motor vehicle fuel additives and to adopt regulations
thereon. It authorizes injunctive relief to be brought by the Attorney
General. It imposes various agreement conditions upon any manufacturer
of motor vehicle fuel additive found by the Board to result in significant
and beneficial reduction in emission of air pollution and authorizes the
Board to conduct tests, or to engage independent laboratories to conduct
tests, to establish standards for motor vehicle fuel additives.
Status: This bill has been revised and approved and the Governor will
probably sign-it.
Assembly Bill 2283 - Los Angeles Basinwide APCD
Moretti
This bill creates the Los Angeles Basinwide Air Pollution Control
District to encompass the area of the South Coast Air Basin. It specifies
the duties, functions, and powers of the district, and limits, with respect
to air pollution, the powers of boards of supervisors of counties included
in the district.
It authorizes the district board, by resolution, to impose upon
distributors an additional license fee of 0.1 cent per gallon of
motor vehicle fuel for the privilege of distributing motor vehicle fuel
in the district, with the net revenues transmitted to the district. The
district board would also be authorized to impose a fee on stationary
sources, as defined, of $1 per 100 tons of emission of air contaminants
therefrom. The State Air Resources Board would be authorized to exercise
the powers of the district under specified circumstances.
Status: This bill will be passed by the Assembly and killed in the Senate.
Assembly Bill 2284 - Air Pollution Violation Fine
Moretti
This act changes civi] penalty for certain air pollution violations
for each day in which the violation occurs from not to exceed $500, to
$500 for a first offense, $1,000 for a second offense, $2,000 for a third
offense, $3,000 for a fourth offense, $4,000 for a fifth offense, $5,000
for a sixth offense, and $10,000 for a seventh offense and each succeeding
offense, during a 12-month period.
It makes provisions applicable to a violation of rules and regulations
of the Bay Area Air Pollution Control District and prescribed provisions
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regarding nonvehicular pollution control, including such provisions en-
forced by regional air pollution control districts created under the
Mulford-Carrel 1 Air Resources Act.
Status: This bill is in the Assembly Transportation Committee. It will
be substantially modified by the Senate. The Governor will not sign it
in its present form.
Assembly Bill 2285 - Gasoline Marketing Control
Berman/Morettl
This bill prohibits any person from holding,,or storing any volatile
organic compound having a vapor pressure of 1.5 pounds per square inch
absolute or greater, under actual storage conditions, in any stationary
tank, reservoir, or other container of more than 250 gallons capacity,
unless such tank, reservoir, or other container is either a pressure
tank maintaining working pressures sufficient to prevent hydrocarbon
vapor or gas loss to the atmosphere or is designed and equipped with a
vapor loss control device or system, as prescribed. Pressure tanks may
be equipped with one-way automatic pressure relief valves necessary to
meet any other requirements of law.
Status: This bill will probably be killed in the Senate or be revised
beyond recognition.
Assembly Bill 2286 - Stationary Source Controls
Montoya/Moretti
This bill requires, on January 1 and July 1 of each year, every air
pollution control district to make public a list naming the person
operating, and the location of, each stationary source located within the
district emitting 25 or more tons annually, or in the case of the Bay Area
Air Pollution Control District or such districts located in the San Diego
Air Basin or the South Coast Air Basin, as designated by the State Air
Resources Board, emitting 100 or more tons annually, of specified air
contaminants and stating the amount of each such air contaminant emitted
to at least the nearest 0.1 of a ton. It appropriates an unspecified
amount to the State Controller for allocation and disbursement to local
agencies for costs incurred by them pursuant to this act.
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Status: This bill is in the Assembly Transportation Committee. It will
pass both houses and probably be signed by the Governor.
Assembly Bill 2287 - Listing of Top Ten Stationary Source Categories
IngalIs/Moretti
This bill requires each air pollution control district, in which the
state's ambient air quality standard for a particular air contaminant
has been exceeded during the year in the district, to release and
disseminate to the public a list naming the person operating, and the
location of, the 10 stationary sources located within the district emitting
the greatest amount of the particular air contaminant, if the source emits
25 tons or more annually of the air contaminant. The stationary sources
would be required to be listed in decreasing order of the amount of their
emissions of the air contaminant in tons per day. The list would also
include such sources listed in decreasing order of their emissions in tons
per day of hydrocarbons or reactive hydrocarbons where the state's ambient
air quality standard for oxidant is exceeded.
The bill appropriates an unspecified amount to the State Controller
for allocation and disbursement to local agencies for costs incurred by
them pursuant to this act.
Status: This bill is in the Assembly Ways and Means Committee. It will
probably pass both houses and be signed by the Governor.
Assembly Bill 2288 - Retrofit Devices
IngalIs/Moretti
Requires that the Department of Motor Vehicles, in addition to any
other requirements relating to renewal of registration, require, upon
1975 renewal of registration of every 1966-70 model year motor vehicle
subject to specified provisions of the Vehicle Code, a valid certificate
of compliance from a licensed motor vehicle pollution control device
installation and inspection station indicating that such vehicle is
properly equipped with a motor vehicle pollution control device with
which the vehicle was required, when new, to be equipped, as a condition
of first sale and registration in this state.
Status: This bill is being heard in the Assembly Transportation
Committee. The Governor will probably veto it this year, because it is
felt that the DMV will not, at this time, enforce a certificate of
compliance.
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Senate Bill 479 - Exhaust Test, Tune-Up: Motor Vehicles South Coast A1r
Basin
Blddle and Coombs
Every registered automotive repair dealer 1n the South Coast A1r
Basin would be required to perform specified exhaust emission control
system and device maintenance when he does a tuneup, or any portion
thereof, on a motor vehicle with such a system or device, or both.
This bill requires such maintenance to be performed on all motor
vehicles so equipped that are registered within the basin, except when
the principal garage of the vehicle is located outside of the basin, at
least once in 1974 and in 1975, under a schedule adopted by the Chief of
the Bureau of Automotive Repair, after consultation with the State Air
Resources Board and the Department of the California Highway Patrol.
Status: After first reading, this bill was sent to Senate Committee on
Government Organization. It will probably die in the Assembly.
Senate Bill 549 - Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Devices
Wedworth
This bill requires the Bureau of Automotive Repair, the Department
of the California Highway Patrol, the State Air Resources Board, and all
local law enforcement agencies to enforce specified provisions prohibiting
the installation, sales, offering for sale, or advertisement, of motor
vehicle air pollution control devices which are not certified or accreditet
by the State Air Resources Board. Violation of these provisions and of
specified provisions of the Vehicle Code regarding air pollution control
devices, is a misdemeanor.
An unspecified amount is appropriated from the General Fund to the
State Controller for allocation and disbursement to local agencies for
costs incurred by them pursuant to this act.
Status: The bill is in the Senate Finance Committee. It will
probably pass both houses and be signed.
Senate Bill 675 - Fleet Vehicle Conversion or Specification Type System
Beilenson '.
This bill requires every 1968 to 1973, inclusive, year model fleet
vehicle, as defined, and with specified exception, registered under the
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Vehicle Code and operating within any one or more of the Counties of
Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, Santa Barbara, San Bernardino, and
Ventura, to be equipped with a specified fuel system or other device,
in accordance with a schedule prescribed by the State A1r Resources
Board. Requires that all such vehicles comply no later than December 31,
1974. Makes provision for proof of compliance and certain exemption, and
for the issuance of a windshield sticker.
The Department of Motor Vehicles, on and after January 1, 1975,
would require, upon initial registration, transfer of ownership and
registration, and, upon renewal of registration for the 1975 calendar
year and each calendar year thereafter, of vehicles subject to such
provisions, a valid certificate of compliance from a licensed motor
vehicle pollution control device installation and inspection station
indicating that such vehicle is equipped as required.
Status: This bill was read for the first time and sent to the Senate
Committee on Government Organization. It will probably die in the Senate.
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