PL
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                                          EPA/600/9-85/01S
                                          May  1985
               PROCEEDINGS:

     FIRST ANNUAL ACID DEPOSITION

    EMISSIONS INVENTORY SYMPOSIUM
          Janes B.  Homolya,  Compiler
              Radian Corporation
              900 Perimeter  Park
      Morrlsvllle,  North  CarolIna  .27560
     EPA Contract No.  68-02-3994,  Task  005
            EPA Project Officer:

                 J.  D.  Mobley
Air and Energy Engineering  Research  Laboratory
     U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency
 Research  Triangle Park,  North  Carolina  27711
 AIR AND ENERGY ENGINEERING RESEARCH LABORATORY
      OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
     U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
       RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NC 27711

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                                 TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                               read /*sjsucnons on the reverie before, completing)
  BE"ORTNO
   EPA/600/9-35/015
                                                        3 RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO
 J TITLE ANDSUBTlTLE
 Proceedings: First Annual Acid Deposition Emissions
  Inventory Symposium
                                                       & REPORT DATE
                                                        Mav 1985
                                                       «. PERFORMING ORGANIZATIOf CODE
 7 AUTHORlSI

 James B.  Homolya,  Compiler
                                                        8 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
9 PERFORMING OROANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
 Radian Corporation
 900 Perimeter Park
 Morrisville. North  Carolina  27560
                                                        10 PROGRAM ELF.MENT NO
                                                        11 CONTRACT/GRANT NO
                                                        68-02-3994,  Task 5
 '2 SPONSORING 4GENCV NAME AND ADDfESS
 EPA,  Office of Research and Development*
 Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
 Research Triangle  Park, NC 27711
                                                       13. TYPE Of REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                                                       Proceedings: 9/34 - 4/85
                                                       14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
                                                         EPA/600/13
 is SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES AEERL project officer is J.  David Mobley,  Mail Drop 61.  919/541-
 2612. (*)  Cosponsored by U.S. Department of Energy.
 " ABSrRACT The proceedings document a 2-day symposium on the progress in implemen-
 ting the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program  (NAPAP) Task Group B's
 emission inventory programs. The meeting was intended primarily for government,
 academic, and  private sector individuals involved in either developing or using at-
 mospheric emission inventories for ac.'.d deposition  and air quality research.  Topics
 included  the development of emission factors for a wide range of pollutant emissions
 and the use  of  detailed emission inventories for atmospheric transport, transfor-
 mation, and deposition modeling. The meeting:  1) provided detailed presentation
 and information transfer of the  NAPAP  emission inventory program; 2) illustrated
 and strengthened the relationship between the emission inventory data  base  and its
 users;  and 3) compared and contrasted the NAPAP emission inventory with  other
 on-going emission  inventory development  programs.
                              KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                 DESCRIPTORS
                                           b IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                                                                    c.  COSATl 1-wld/CrOUp
 Pollution
 Precipitation
 Acidity
 Emission
 Inventories
 Mathematical Models
                                           Pollution Control
                                           Stationary Sources
                                           Acid Rain
                                           Emission Factors
13B
04B
07D
14G
15E
12 A
 3 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT

 Release to Public
                                           19 SECURITY CLASS IThu Rrporl)
                                           Unclassified
21 NO OF PAGES
   1A7
                                           20 SECURITY CLASS I
                                           Unclassified
                                                                    23 PRICE
CPA form 1110-1 (»-71)

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                      NOT ICL
ihis document has been reviewed in accordance with
U.S. i.nvironmental Protection Agency policy and
approved for publication.   Mention of trade namos
or commercial products does not constitute endorse-
ment or recommendation for use.
                      11

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                                ABSTRACT

     A two-day  symposium  discussing  the progress  In the Imp IementatIcn
of the  National  Acid  Precipitation  Assessment Program  Task  Group B
emission  Inventory  programs  was  sponsored  by  the  Environmental
Protection Agenc>'s  Air  and Fnergy  Engineering  Research  Laboratory,
Research Triangle  Park,  North  Carolina,  In  cooperation with the  EPA
Office of Air Quality Planning  and Standards and the U.S.  Department of
Energy.  The  meeting  was  Intended primarily for government,  academic,
and private sector individuals  Involved  In either the development or use
of atmospheric emission  Inventories  for  acid  deposition  and air  quality
research.  Topics  Included  the  development of emission  factors  for a
wide range of pollutant emissions and  the use of  detailed  emission
Inventories for  atmospheric  transport,  transformation,  snd deposition
model ing.
     The meeting accomplished the  following  objectives:   1)  to provide
detailed presentation  and  Information transrer of  the  NAPAP  emission
Inventory program; 2)  to  Illustrate   and  strengthen the relationship
between the emission  inventory  data base and Its user;  and  3)  to conpare
and contrast  the NAPAP emission  Inventory  with other on-going emission
inventory development programs.
                                     iii

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                            TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT,
SESSION  1:  NAPAP EMISSION  INVENTORY ACTIVITIES.
     Mike VaxwelI„ ChaI
Current NAPAP Emission  Inventory Activities
     J. David Mob ley
Overview of  1980 NAPAP Emission  Inventory
     Douglas A. Toothman
Ut 1 1 Ity Point  Source Emission  Inventory.
      Edward H. Pechan
Development of Temporal, Spatial, and Volatile Organic Compound
Allocation Factors  for the NAPAP Emission  Inventory, ...... ........   22
     Frederick M. Sellers

Stationary Source Emission Factor Development.. ...................   28
     J. B. Homolya

SESSION 2:  NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITIES (continued) .......   33

Users' Guidelines for Access of the 1980 NAPAP Emissions
Inventory ................... . .......... . ..... . ....................   34
     Char les 0. Mann

Historic Emissions of S0_ and NO  Since 1900.. ....................  ,38
     Gerhard Gschwandtner     ; ' *

Development of a Monthly Historical  Emissions Inventory ...........   47
     Duane Knudson

Quality Assurance of the NAPAP Man-Made Emissions Data Base .......   58
     E. C. Trexler,  PE

Estimation of  Uncertainty Within NAPAP Emission Inventor les. < .....   65
     Carmen Benkovltz

Review of  Approaches to VOC Spec lat Ion ....... ...... ...............   71
     M. P. Papal  (Speaker)  and J.  C.  Dlckerman

NAPAP Emission  Inventory  Development  for FY-85/86 .................   78
     J. David  Mob ley
       Preceding page blank

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SESSION 3:  APPLICATION OF IMISSION I NVEMTOR I E S FOR
            SCIENTIFIC PURPOSES	  87
     Ed Trexler, Chairman

Sulfur Deposition Modeling With the NAPAP Emission Inventory	  88
     Terry L. Clark

Emission  Inventory Applications to Regional  Acid Deposition
Mode ling	;	  93
     Joan H. Novak

The Use of Emission Inventories for Effects StudFes..	 100
     Ann M. Bartuska

SESSION 4:  RELATED EMISSION INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES	 108
     Ed Trexler, Chairman

Development of the Canadian Acid Deposition Emission Inventory,... 109
     Frank Vena

Emission  Inventory RequIrements for Deposition and Regional
Air Quality Model Development:   A Summary	 114
     Steven L. Heisler

Development of the Natural Sources Emissions lnventory	 120
     Daniel L. Albrltton

SESSION 5:  PANEL DISCUSSIONS	 125
     John Fink, Moderator

APPEND IX:  ATTENDEES	 1 28
                                    vi

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          SESSIOM  1:   f'APAP  EMISSION  INVENTORY ACTIVITIES

Chairman:   ''Ike ''ayw.cll
            'J. 5. '^nv 1 ronnenta I Protection  Agency CT5-61)
            Air and Energy Engineering  Research Laboratory
            °esearch Triangle Park, fC   277H

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       C'JPPEUT NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITIES

                     J. David ''obley
     Air and Energy Engineering Desearch Laboratory
          U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
            Research Triangle Park, MC  27711
                     Presented at:



First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                       Raleigh, MC



                   December 3-4, 1984

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                       NAPAF- EMISSION  INVENTOR ACTIVITIES
                     by:  j. fav i d ''ob I ey
                          Air and Energy Engineering Nearer, Laboratory
                          U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                          De<.,earch Triangle Park, NC  27711
                                ABSTRACT

     The most exacting requirements, in terns of dIsaggregatIon and
speclation of emission Inventory data wifnln N/PAP,  are needed to
support the drvelcpmem and testing of  the Eulerian  acid deposition
model.  The Initial 'iAPAP Task Group P.  emission Inventory research
program began with a modific**ion and augmentation of the 1980 NEDS
Inventory to provide outputs suitable for Lagranglan modeling activities
and to support preliminary development  of the Eulerian node).  Current
activities are directed at assessing available data  for formulation of
non-criteria pollutant emission  factors,  development of the preliminary
!980 NAPAP enlsslon Inventory for  Eulerian model use, and development of
estimation methodologies  to assess uncertainties of  available emission
factors and the 1980 NAPAP emission Inventory.

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               CURRENT MAPAP EMISSION  INVENTORY ACTIVITIES
                               INTRODUCTION

      In  1980, Congress established the National Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program  (NAPAP) to coordinate and expand research relevant to
the proolens posed  by acid deposition  in the United States.  The program
is organized and managed through the Interagency Task Force on Acid
Precipitation (ITFAP) and 10 subordinate task groups coordinating
specific technical  areas of research.  One of the groups  is Task Group E
which  is responsible for man-made sources.  A major objective of Task
Group  3  is the development and maintenance of detailed 19,°0 and 1984
emission  inventories to support acid deposition research and analysis.
The most significant uses of the inventories are for policy analysis and
to support both Eulerian and Lagranglan long-range transport/deposition
models.

                               DISCUSSION
     The i-.x»st exacting requirements,  in terms of d i saggregat Ion and
speciatlon of emission inventory data within NAPAP, are needed to
support the development and testing of the Eulerian acid deposition
model.  Therefore, the needs of other inventory users, with the exception
of historical analyses, can be satisfied with an inventory that can meet
the requirements of the planned modeling activities.  Very detailed
emissions  information  is needed for development, testing, and appl ication
of atmospheric rrodels.  Detailed emissions data can require a substantial
lead time  for development.  Therefore, the timing of emission Inventory
needs of atmospheric model development is a key driving force in the
emission research strategy.  Task Group 3 planning activities address
emission Inventory needs of the NAPAP research program, allocation of
resoons Ib I  I Ity fo- planned activities to meet tliase needs, and

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 procedures  for c, -alitv af.sjr jnc<\ maintenance, artel d i str i but it^ of
 enission  inventory  infcrma^ n;-   (Voup B has been conducting d  -.-
 program to address  tne follc/  ng as-essment of priorities  in needs:

       1.   The primary focus of  !.v   'ory activities  Is. directed to
           fulfill the emission nsta Ljase requirements for the
           development of an Eulerian acid deposition model.  Within tne
           EPA's Office of Pesearch and Development, the Environmental
           Sciences  Research Laboratory has been assigned the lead
           responsibility to cevelop an Eulerian nodel for ac . d rain
           which will be based on a framework* s iml lar to the Northeast
           Regional  Oxidant Study (MEROS) Eulerian oxiaant nodel.  The
           National  Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAFO has been
           assigned  the task of developing the model framework which
           includes  a number of chemical  transformation modules.  The
           variety of these modules under development dictates the
           specific chemical  species required In the emission Inventory
           ,to drive the model  Input.  Development of the Eulerian acid
           deposition model  began in FY-83 with preliminary testing to
           begin In HY-85.

      2.   Lagranglan model  development and testing parallels work on the
           Eulerian acid  deposition model.  Inventory requirements to
           support Lagrangian  models are  focused on sulfur dioxide (S0_),
           primary sulfate,  and the oxides of nitrogen (NO ).  Models
           being supported by  inventory development Include ASTRAP
           (developed oy  Argonne  National  Laboratory)  and ENAMAP (ut i I ized
           by  the EPA's Environmental  Sciences Research Laboratory).

      3.   Historical emi ss ion  prof i I es are needed to assess long-term
           effects of acidic deposition on materials,  and aquatic and
           terrestrial  receptors.

      The  emission  inventory development  program within Task Group B

 began In  FY-82  at  a  resource  level  of  $85,000.   Funded activities
 Incl ude'd:

      1.    Development  of  sn historical emission inventory data  base for
           S0_ and  NO .
            2        x

      2.    Prel Imlnary. development of primary  sulfate  emission factors.

      3.    Assessment planning.

      4.    Preparation of the initial NAPAP  acid deposition emission
           inventory  implementation  plan.

The  Initial NAPAP emission Inventory implementation  plan  outlined a

strategy focused on  the development of a  NAFAP  emission  ,nventory for

the 1980 base year to be  Initiated  In FY-83.  The  1980 NEDS (National

Emissions  Data System) Inventory was modified and  augmented  to  provide

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outputs suitable for Lagranglan modeling activities and to support

preliminary development of the Eulerian model.

     During FY-83 and FY-34, the  following program  xt'Mtles were

performed:
     1.   Assessment of available data  for the  formulation of
          non-criteria pollutant emission factors.  Detailed assessments
          were pr°oared for primary sulfate, ammonia, hydrochI or Ic acid,
          and h/drofluoric acid.

     2.   Source measurement tests to complete  emission factor
          development for primary sulfate, ammonia, hydrochloric acid,
          and hydrofluoric acid.  Tests were conducted to fill  data gaps
           identified  in the assessments.

     3.   Development of the T980 NAPAP emission  inventory.  The 1980
          NAPAP  inventory was  developed  in a phased approach.  The
           initial  development  was an  interim Inventory produced to
          support  Lagrangian modeling studies.  The data base  included
          an annual  Inventory  of SO , NO  , and  total volatile organic
          compounds  (VOCs) vor the contiguous U.S.  The rJEDS utility
          point  source  inventory was supplanted by ti,e E. Pechan
          Associates utility emissions  inventory  prepared for EPA/DOE.
          Area source emissions were aggregated at the county-centroid
           level.   The second phase in the development and refinement  of
          the 1980 NAPAP emission inventory has produced a preliminary
           inventory  for use In Eulerian model development and testing.
          The Inventory includes point  and area source^ for the
          contiguous U.S. grldded to 1/6  latitude by 1/4 longitude areas
          for S02, S04, NH^, NO , N02,  and 10 VOC photochemical
          reactivity classifications.   A temporal allocation profile  is
          provided for a typical summer day.

     4.   Development of estimation methodologies to assess uncertainties
          of available emission factors and the 1980 NAPAP emission
          Inventory.  As the development, applications, and refinement
          of the NAPAP emission Inventories progress, quality assurance
          and validation of the data bases are  important activities
          which serve to both  improve and define the value of each
          Inventory element.

     Figure 1 Illustrates the  interrelationship of the various tasks

performed to produce the preliminary 1980 NAPAP emission inventory *or

Eulerian model  development and testing.  A major elemrnt of the emission

Inventory structure  Is the data handling systems  support'-'g the required

temporal, spatial, and species resolution for the NAPAP Eulerian acid

deposition model.  Since the temporal  and spatial resolution requirements

of the acid deposition model  are similar to those of the Northeast

Corridor Regional  Modeling Projecl (NECRflP), the  data handling system

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used In NECRMP, termed the Regional  Model  Data Handling System (RMDHS),
was adapted for use with the preliminary 1980 Inventory.  RMDHS was
modified to fulfill the following Interim  emission Inventory
requirements:
     •    spatial  resolution to 48 states  (20 km x 20 km grids);
     •    NECRMP VOC classes,  using  national  species  factors;
     •    NECRMP NO  allocation factors  for  NO and N0»;
     •    S02;
     •     primary  sulfate;
     •     ammonia;
     •     temporal  resolution to a single typical  summer weekday;  and
     •     four  separate time zones resolved to Greenwich Mean Time.

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                                     1980 NAPAP
                                 Emission  Inventory

                                    S0, N0, VOC
   Preliminary
Hourly  Emissions
    Profiles
 Spatial Source
   Allocations
        Primary Sulfate 4 NH
         Emission Factors
'3  !
                                Inventory Improvements
                                    and Additions
          Preliminary VOC
            Speclatlon
                             1980 NAPAP Acid Deposition
                                Emission  Inventory

                               S02. SOj, NO, N02, NHj.
                                10 VOC Photochemical
                                RXN  Classifications
                                Quarterly Inventory
                                  Output to Users
                                    Annual  Report
                                      9/84  Draft
                                     12/34  Final
                                                            Tape
Access
Through NCC
  Figure  1.   Development of the Preliminary 1980 NAPAP  Emission

                  Inventory for Eulerlan Model  Use.

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                 OVERVIEW OF 1980 NAPAP

                    EMISSION INVENTORY
                   Douglas A. Toothnan
                   Engineering-Science
                 10521 Rosehaven Street
                 Fairfax, Virginia 22030
                 Contract No.  68-02-3996

            Project Officer:   J.  David Mobley
                      Presented at:


First Annual  Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                 Raleigh,  North Carolina

                   December 3-4,  1984

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                         OVERVIEW OF 1980 NAPAP
                           EMISSION INVENTORY
                           by:  D.A. Toothman
                                Engi neeri ng-Sci ence
                                Fairfax, Virginia 22030
                                ABSTRACT

     This paper addresses the compilation of a 1980 emission inventory
for use in the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP).
The current  inventory  (Version 4.0) contains point source data for
50,200 plants with over 201,000 emission points and area source data for
the 3,069 counties in  the 48 contiguous states and District of Columbia.
Emissions of S02, NO  , VOC, sulfates, ammonia, CO, and particulates are
included in  the inventory, but this paper focuses on S02, NO , and VOC
which are of primary  interest for acid deposition research.   NAPAP
Version 4.0  emissions  of S02, NO , and VOC are 27.1, 23.7, and
23.3 million tons per year, respectively.   Emissions in the NAPAP data
base are in  reasonable agreement with Work Group 3B and Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) emission trends estimates.   NAPAP
fuel use data show reasonable agreement with fuel values in DOE's State
Energy Data  Report.   Version 4.0 of NAPAP represents the best detailed
inventory of emissions on a national scale that has been developed to
date.   Nevertheless, additional improvements are planned, focusing on
major point  sources.   The bulk of future NAPAP resources will be used to
meet the needs of Eulerian modeling activities.
                                     10

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                          OVERVIEW OF  1980  NAPAP
                            EMISSION  INVENTORY
                               INTRODUCTION

      In 1980, Congress established NAPAP to  coordinate  and  expand  research
 relevant to the problems  posed by acid  deposition  in  and  around  the
 United States.   The program is organized and managed  through  the
 Interagency Task Force on Acid Precipitation (ITFAP)  and  10 subordinate
 task groups coordinating  specific technical  areas  of  research.   One of
 the groups is Task Group  B which  is  responsible for man-made  sources.   A
 major objective of Group  B is  the development and  maintenance of detailed
 emission inventories to support acid  deposition research  and  analysis.
      The objectives of the effort summarized herein were  to develop the
 initial  1980 base  year emission inventory, evaluate its quality  and
 comprehensiveness,  and identify actions needed for further  refinement  of
 the data base in the future.   The project  required development of  a
 central, quality-assured  data  base of emissions of '-ollutants of interest
 for acid deposition research and  modeling.    The area  covered  includes
 the 48  contiguous  states  of the U.S.   and the District of  Columbia.

                                DISCUSSION

      Version  4.0 of  the NAPAP  data base was  developed starting with 1980
 "snapshot"  information  from the U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency's
 (EPA's)  National Emissions Data System  (NEDS).   The initial data base
 was  improved  by  incorporating  the  latest available emission factors,
 substitution  of data from  the  Northeast Corridor Regional Modeling
 Project and other NEDS data more  representative of 1980,  updating  electric
 u'-'lity data with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) data  compiled by
 E.H. Pechan and Associates, cross-checking data with  information from
the U.S./Canada Work Group 3B report, and  adding county centroid latitude
and longitude for sources  with missing or  incorrect Universal  Transverse
                                  11

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Mercator (UTM) coordinates.  The NAPAP data are stored in Emission
Inventory System (EIS) format on the EPA's IBM computer at Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina.
     NAPAP data show that S02 emissions are dominated by electric
utilities, primarily from coal-fired generating stations located in the
eastern U.S.  For NO , the largest sources are transportation (mostly
highway vehicles), electric utilities, and industrial combustion.  For
VOC, emissions result largely from transportation (again primarily
highway vehicles), other industrial processes, and miscellaneous sources
which include organic solvent use not accounted for by point sources,
retail gasoline service stations, and forest wildfires.
     The geographic breakdown of S02 emissions in NAPAP indicates that
EPA Regions 4 and 5 are the largest contributors.   The eastern 31 states
account for over 82 percent of nationwide S02 emissions.   For NO ,
Regions 4, 5, and 6 are the highest emitters, with the eastern 31 states
accounting for about 64 percent of national emissions.  Regions 4, 5,
and 6 are also responsible for the greatest amount of VOC emissions.
The eastern 31 states account for 66 percent of the nation's VOC emissions
     The relative importance of point versus area source emissions
varies for each of the three pollutants.   Point sources contribute over
90 percent of national S02 emissions.   For NO .  emissions are nearly
evenly distributed.   Area sources, on the other hand, emit almost
80 percent of total  VOC emissions.  Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana have
the greatest S02 emissions.  Texas, California,  and Ohio are the greatest
r<0  emitters, while Texas and California have the greatest VOC emissions.
     Seasonal variations were derived from operating data in the point
source inventory and seasonal factors added to the area source file.
Seasonal  variations  are less than expected.  For S02, the maximum
variation is 3 percentage points, from 24 to 27 percent.   The maximum
variation for NO  and VOC is only 2 percentage points, from 24 to
26 percent.   Emissions of S02 and NO  are greatest in winter and lowest
in spring.   VOC emissions are the highest in summer and lowest in winter.
     Although it is  effective plume height that is of greatest interest
to modelers, only stack height data are included in NAPAP.   Thus, only
emissions by stack height range could be summarized.   These data show
that nearly all VOC  emissions (both point and area) are emitted below
                                  12

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 120 feet.   Over two-thirds  of  the  total  emissions  of  N0x  also are released
 below 120  feet.   On the  other  hand,  nearly  40  percent of  all  S02  is
 emitted at heights  above 480 feet.
      County emission densities  were  calculated and density  ranges
 summarized to obtain more information  on  the concentration  of emissions.
 For S02,  counties in the highest emission density  range result from
 power plants located in  the East,  primarily in the Ohio Valley and Great
 Lakes areas.   These counties represent only 4  percent of  those in the
 nation but have 54  percent  of  the  total  emissions.  For N0x,  the  counties
 in the highest range result from either power  plants  or highway vehicles.
 These counties represent only  3 percent  of  those in the nation but
 contribute 27 percent of the total emissions.   For VOC, the counties  in
 the highest range result from  solvent  use and  highway vehicles.   These
 counties  represent  only  2 percent  of all counties  in  the  nation but
 contribute 29 percent of the total emissions.
      A comparison of NAPAP, Trends,  and Work Group 3B emissions of S02
 and NO  shows reasonable agreement.  NAPAP  total S02  emissions are
 greater than  Work Group  3B  by 3 percent and than Trends by  5.5 perc.-r.t.
 NAPAP and  Work Group 38/Trends emissions compare well  for all  categories
 except non-utility  combustion.   NAPAP  total NC. ^missions are greater
 than Work  Group  3B  by  11.8  percent and greet/-   than Trends  by 4 percent.
 The greatest  difference  between NAPAP  and >*.,I-A  oroup  3B occurs for the
 electric utility  category.  The differences o.-jtween NAPAP and Trends
 occur for  the  electric utility, non-utility combustion, and transportion
 categories.   Some of the  variation for utilities is a  result  of fuel
 differences, but most  is  likely to be caused by different emission
 factors and control  efficiencies.   The non-utility  combustion cateaory
 variation occurs for the same  reasons as the variation in the utility
 category except that the non-utility category  may  be  more affected by
 fuel differences.  The transportation category variation occurs because
more detailed traffic data,  available only on  a nationwide  basis,  are
used in developing the Trends  estimate.
                                 1J

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                               CONCLUSIONS

     Version 4.0 of NAPAP represents a detailed inventory of emissions
on a national scale for the 1980 base year.  Over 80 percent of the
NAPAP emissions truly represent 1980.  Over 90 percent are in the range
from 1978 to 1981.  Many of these large emitting facilities are electric
utility plants and nonferrous smelters for which extensive quality
assurance efforts have already been performed.  About 80 percent of
point source S02 and NO  emissions occur at sources with complete stack
data and valid DIM coordinates.
     Future resources -/ill be used to try to improve NAPAP to meet the
needs of Eulerian modeling activities.  Additional quality assurance
efforts are planned for the 1980 data base focusing on major point
sources.  Additional pollutants not now in NAPAP, speciation of VOC and
NO  emissions, hourly temporal resolution of emissions, and spatial
resolution of data into small grid zones covering the entire U.S.  will
be required.  Other activities include incorporation of emission data
for Canada into NAPAP, coordination with Task Group A to include natural
emission sources into NAPAP, and a statistical evaluation of the
uncertainty of NAPAP emission estimates.

                               REFERENCES
1.    ''National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1982."
     EPA-450/4-83-024.  (February 1984).
2.    "Emissions, Costs, and Engineering Assessments."  Work Group 3B,
     U.S./Canada Memorandum of Intent on Transboundary Air Pollution.
     (June 1982).
                                  14

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         UTILITY POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY
                    Edward H.  Pechan
            E. H. Pechan and Associates, Inc.
               Springfield, Virginia 22151
                 Contract No.  68-02-4070

            Project Officer:   Paul  Schwengels
                      Presented at:
First Annual  Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                 Raleigh,  North Carolina

                   December 3-4,  1984
                            15

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                 UTILITY POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY
                          by:  Paul Schwengels
                               Office of Research and Development
                               U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                               Washington, D.C. 20460
                                ABSTRACT

     Estimates of 1973-1982 annual S02 emissions from electric utility
plants are presented in this paper.  Results are based on analyses of
plant level data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy on consumption
and quality of fuels burned.  Emissions are estimated from known
information about fuel consumption, sulfur content, ash content, and
control  equipment.   Results show that these reductions were due to the
use of lower sulfur coals and to the operation of flue gas desulfurization
equipment.
                                    16

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                  UTILITY POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY
                              INTRODUCTION

      In  the  United  States, the electric utility industry  is  responsible
 for  approximately two-thirds of S0x emissions (where S0x  is  expressed  as
 S02).  Therefore, it  follows that much of the interest in the acid  rain
 debate has focused  on electric utilities.   A number of researchers  in
 the  field are  likely  to have ah interest in knowing how utility emissions
 have behaved in the last decade.
      This paper provides detailed and definitive information on annual
 S02  emissions  from  generating plants operated by the electric utility
 industry over  the period 1973 through 1982.   To produce these emission
 estimates, a detailed data base at the individual plant level of detail
 was  used.  For this paper, annual S02 emission estimates are presented
 at the State level.   More detailed information (e.g., plant  level
 emissions) is  available from the authors.
      The utility  data base used to develop the S02 emission  estimates
 presented in this paper is also being used as part of the NAPAP Acid
 Deposition Emission Inventory.

                               DISCUSSION

     A variety of sources were employed to develop the data  base used  in
 this study.   Results are based on the authors'  analyses of primary  data
 collected and automated by the U.S.  Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy
 Information Administration (EIA).   These analyses included all
 fossil-fueled units, both steam and nonsteam.   Data were merged to
create a  file containing a single record for each plant with all data
elements  of  interest.   The definition of a plant used for this analysis
is identical  to that used by  Of"  in the assignment of plant  codes.  That
is,  data  from units  at a single  site  were  aggregated even if these  units
                                  17

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were operated bv different utilities.  In addition, facilities owned by
an industrial user were excluded even if they exist at a site that is
also producing electricity for public distribution.
     Primary data sources for this work include Federal Power
Commission (FPC) Forms 4 and 423,1 and the EPA's Utility Flue Gas
                             2
Desulfurization (FGD) Survey.   FPC  Form 4 (wh";^,  in 1983 was renumbered
and is now called Form EIA 759) is used to survey  all generating electric
utilities.   This form reports the consumption and  stocks of coal and
other fuels at each plant; respondents account for 100 percent of total
electric utility generation.   FPC Form 423 surveys all fossil-fueled
plants with a total generating capacity of 25 MW or more and reports the
cost and quality (sulfur content) of fuels delivered to a plant.
     EPA's Utility FGD Survey supplies current data on operating and
planned domestic utility FGO systems.  It summarizes information
contributed by the utility industry, system and equipment suppliers,
system designers, research organizations, and regulatory agencies.   The
survey includes data on system design, fuel characteristics, operating
history, and actual system performance.
     Emissions were calculated using information on fuels used for
generating electricity (supplied by  FPC Form 4) and fuel sulfur content
(supplied by FPC Form 423).   For those cases in which fuel quality data
were not provided, State average sulfur content values were used.   (The
quantities of fuels for which sulfur contents were not available was
small over tiie entire study period - between 1 and 1.5 percent of coal
use was not accounted for; the comparable figures  for oil were slightly
                                                                ,' i
higher.)
     Sulfur dioxide emission calculations were straightforward.   For
coal, the quantity of fuel burned was multiplied by twice the sulfur
content (1 ton of sulfur burned will produce approximately 2 tons of
S02).  For coal-fired plants, an S02 ash retention value of between
5 and 25 percent was assumed based on coal quality.  For bituminous
coals (as defined by heating value), a 5 percent ash retention was used.
Fifteen percent was assumed for subbituminous coal, and 25 percent for
lignite.   For oil and gas-fired plants,  standard EPA emission factors
and calculation methods were employed.
                                  18

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     Emission reductions resulting from S02 scrubbing systems were also
taken into account.   For each plant with S02 scrubbing, a total equivalent
net edacity of "S02 free" generation was based on the capacity scrubbed,
date of commercial operation, and S02 removal  rate.   The total
uncontrolled S02 emissions for the plant were  then adjusted to account
for removal of scrubbed S02.

                               CONCLUSIONS

     Table 1 presents estimates produced in the present analysis of
utility S02 emissions during the 1973~1982 period.  Table 1 shows that
total U.S. S02 emissions from electric utilities decreased 16 percent
from 1973 to 1982 - from almost 19.3 million tons to 16.2 million tons.
At the same time, the total heating value of the fuels used increased by
10 percent.  Coal, oil, and gas used increased by 19 percent from 1973
to 1980, but decreased between 1980 and 1982.   The reduction in S02
emissions while fuel use was generally increasing is due both to the use
of lower sulfur coals and to the operation of  FGD equipment.
     The decrease in emissions occurred during a period with significant.
changes in the mix of fuels and in electric generation.  Use of oil as a
fuel for electricity generation has declined dramatically   from
560 million barrels in 1973 to 250 million in  1982.   The decline from
1978, the year before oil prices doubled, is even more dramatic - 1978
oil usage was nearly 640 million barrels.
     Coal use in electricity generation has continued to climb, with an
increase of more than 44 percent in the 1973 to 1982 period.   Natural
gas usd decreased during the mid-1970's because of lack of availability,
and increased in the 1979 to 1981 period as supplies became more abundant.
Its use decreased again in 1982 because prices climbed due to decontrol.
These natural gas usage changes had minimal effect on S02 emissions,
however.
     Coal-fired units are the dominant source  of S02 among utilities.
The percentage of total  utility S02 emissions  due to coal burning has
remained relatively constant  at approximately  90 percent.  This has
occurred despite the increase in the quantity  of coal burned relative to
other fuels.   Reasons for this behavior include the overall decline of
                                 19

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sulfur content in coal and the increase in the number of coal-fired
units equipped with FGD systems.   The average sulfur content of coal
declined by 36 percent between 1973 and 1982.  During thii same period,
the average heating value of coals delivered to utilities declined by
5 percent.   Even though the use of lower heating value western coals
increased over this period, the majority of the large overall decrease
in average coal sulfur content is not due to extensive use of western
coals.  Close examination of Table 1 shows that almost all of the utility
S02 emissions decrease occurred in the eastern States (all States east
of the Mississippi River plus one tier of States west of the Mississippi
River).

                               REFERENCES
i.   "Quarterly Coal Report, July - September 1983."  DOE/EIA-0121
     (83/3Q) Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
     Washington, D.C.   (December 1983).
2.   "Flue Gas Heculfurization Information System, Data Base User's
     Manual."  PEDCo Environmental, Inc.  Cincinnati, Ohio.   (March
     1981).
3.   "Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Third Edition."
     AP-42 (including Supplements 1-14) Office of Air Quality Planning
     and Standards, Environmental Protection Agency.  Research Triangle
     Park, North Carolina.   (1983).
                                  20

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       1.  Utility SO2 Emissions from 1973 to 1982 (1000 Tons per Year)
        State
                          1973
                                  1974
                                           1975
                                                    1976
                                                            1977
                                                                     1978
                                                                             1979
                                                                                      1980
                                                                                              1981
                                                                                                       1982
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Ttjxas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
846. B
12.2
19.9
21.9
120.9
47.3
52.2
57.8
20.9
748.3
445.3
29.6
0.0
1,618.6
1,519.5
226.6
56.4
1,350.3
16.2
35.7
204.6
119.6
1,107.8
277.9
78.5
955.0
10.8
47.8
31.1
56.2
122.8
83. J
534.3
440.8
49.6
2,584.8
0.4
0.0
1,624.0
7.7
163.6
3.8
1,139.4
56.2
10.8
1.1
276.6
37.7
972.8
509.0
50.2
815.4
13.1
38.2
21.7
104.3
43.6
58.3
69.2
16.3
725.4
525.5
30.8
0.0
1,598.9
1,378.8
170.3
62.5
1,407.7
17.3
29.2
239.0
118.4
1,064.8
222.0
118.6
95i.7
12.1
22.8
32.2
55.0
165.4
85.8
594.0
449.7
52.7
2,649.0
1.4
0.1
1,442.1
7.2
157.0
3.3
1,107.2
54.5
12.1
0.7
261.5
33.0
1,071.6
497.4
52.1
735
13
52
16
123
59
32
62
7
656
464
26
0
1,423
1,463
186
100
1,360
11
20
191
109
1,011
205
132
1,075
13
23
32
59
107
76
538
373
41
2,710
0
0
1,435
4
139
21
1,030
84
19
0
209
34
1,029
467
59
.9
.0
.4
.7
.3
.2
.3
.0
.0
.4
.1
.0
f\
.6
.8
.3
.6
.5
.9
.1
.7
.6
.6
.6
.6
.6
.2
.7
.7
.3
.5
.2
.1
.9
.5
.4
.3
.0
.9
.1
.6
.4
.3
.8
.8
.3
.1
.8
.7
.8
.0
704.9
12.8
68.5
38.3
151 .7
S7.9
25.2
60.9
7.2
673.2
499.1
40.1
0.0
1,428.8
1,443.1
217.8
121.1
1,512.3
32.9
13.0
218.2
159.6
887.6
230.6
154.1
1,179.4
16.8
27.4
33.6
50.5
113.2
87.1
512.8
410.2
58.7
2,749.8
0.3
0.0
1,432.0
3.0
162.2
33.9
1,228.3
117.3
12.8
0.4
224.9
37.0
1,010.4
469.7
80.9
735.3
12.4
78.3
54.3
156.2
78.5
23.5
59.2
12.6
657.8
581.2
42.7
0.0
1,367.0
1,457.6
23u.O
138.9
1,356.5
58.5
9.9
198.0
160.4
905.1
230.5
198.0
1,201 .9
22.8
31 .4
35.6
59.4
128.4
103.7
548.8
427.2
65.2
2,686.1
3.1
0.3
1,381.1
3.6
194.4
30.2
1,257.6
143.3
32.2
0.4
233.0
53.9
1,001.4
514J7
97.7
530.6
7.7
59.5
58.9
107.6
76.6
26.0
55.6
10.4
5<»5.1
616.2
38.4
0.0
1,292.9
1,351.2
263.7
159.3
1,210.0
63.8
8.7
220.5
258.9
806.9
190.3
208.7
1,013.6
21.8
37.9
38.6
52.3
115.3
81.4
520.0
396.4
71.6
2,462.6
13.0
0.1
1,322.7
3.4
192.9
32.4
1,033.1
179.8
29,9
0.3
223.9
69.8
895.5
471.7
95.7
521.3
12.2
81.4
40.6
108.0
77.4
27.4
61.1
6.7
658.7
666.1
46.1
0.0
1,167.7
1,536.9
230.8
142.3
1,130.0
39.6
10.9
205.2
264.5
741.0
163.6
166.1
1,076.2
22.9
38.8
47.0
78.9
105.1
76.7
508.1
379.5
82.2
2,514.5
19.5
0.9
1,4X5.1
2.8
191.1
27.9
893.1
221.7
30.4
0.4
203.2
79.3
955.9
496.3
111.1
543.1
11.7
87.5
26.6
77.9
77.5
32.1
52.5
4.6
725.9
736.7
41.6
0.0
1,125.6
1,539.6
231.3
150.1
1,007.6
24.8
16.3
223.2
275.5
565.4
177.4
129.2
1,140.5
23.4
49.5
39.5
80.5
110.2
84.6
480.3
435.4
82.5
2,171.6
37.7
3.3
1,466.1
5.2
211.1
28.6
933.7
302.8
22.1
0.5
163.7
69.4
944.2
485.7
120.9
554.9
12.3
111.9
43.7
.50.8
71.6
30.2
69.8
2.6
753.9
843.7
23.6
0.0
1,001.2
1,447.3
193.0
151.1
1,028.8
22.0
13.4
197.2
264.9
598.7
150.3
99.6
1,09\ .2
21.6
43.0
42.4
68.0
103.6
74.7
524.7
444 .8
74.6
2,179.1
56.0
6.8
1,296.8
b.O
231.5
22.1
875.9
312.3
25.3
0.2
140.5
61.7
944.4
397.8
119.9
407.9
11. J
109.2
49.8
20.8
78.6
46.4
57.0
0.8
648.5
787.9
22.9
0.0
1,037.8
1,291 .9
189.2
140.8
935.5
30.5
12.6
203.0
262.2
588.9
128.1
99.4
1,093.8
15.8
36.7
58.8
60.1
96.0
92.4
469.8
409.7
89.9
2,120.9
72.2
3.4
1,261.7
3.1
197.2
31.0
629.0
356.5
24.7
0.4
123.0
49.7
885.7
361 .8
110.9
United States
                      18,805.1 10,661.7 18,055.2 1 8 , 821 . 4 19 , 070 . 8  17, 591. 2 17,
-------
          DEVELOPMENT OF TEMPORAL, SPATIAL, AND
      VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND ALLOCATION FACTORS
            FOR THE NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY
                  Frederick M. Sellars
                 CCA/Technology Division
              Bedford, Massachusetts 01730
                 Contract No. 68-02-39S7
            Project Officer:  J. David Mobley
                      Presented at:

First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
                 Raleigh, North Carolina
                   December 3-4, 1984
                            22

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                  DEVELOPMENT OF TEMPORAL,  SPATIAL,  AND
              VOLATILE  ORGANIC  COMPOUND ALLOCATION  FACTORS
                    FOR THE  NAPAP  EMISSION  INVENTORY
                        by:  Frederick M. Sellars
                            GCA/Technology Division
                            Bedford, Massachusetts  01730
                                ABSTRACT

     The Eulerian acid  deposition  model being  developed  for  use  in the
National Acid Precipitation  Assessment  Program (NAPAP) will  require more
resolved emission data  than  are  available  in the  NAPAP emission  inventory.
The NAPAP emission inventory,  which  separately covers annual  emissions
from point and countywide  area sources, had to be apportioned to reflect
hourly emissions  with area source  emissions assigned  to  grid  squares.
Hourly emissions  of volatile organic  compounds (VOC)  then  had to be
allocated into photochemical  reactivity classes,  and  nitrogen oxide (NO )
emissions separated into NO  and  N02.  This paper  describes the processes,
assumptions,  and  data sources  used in developing  the  NAPAP temporal,
spatial, and  species allocation  factors.
                                   23

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                  DEVELOPMENT OF TEMPORAL, SPATIAL, AND
              VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND ALLOCATION FACTORS
                    FOR THE NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY
                              INTRODUCTION
     The most extensive use of the NAPAP emissions inventory will be to
support the Eulerian acid deposition model currently under development.
The NAPAP inventory, compiled using EPA's Emission Inventory System (EIS),
contains annual emissions from point and area sources.   Area sources are
compiled on a county total basis, while point source data are compiled
for individual sources.  Emission totals in the NAPAP inventory for VOC
and NO  actually represent composites of various individual species.  To
support the Eulerian model, further temporal, spatial,  and  pecies
resolution is required.
     GCA utilized the  Regional Model Data Handling System (RMDHS) to
resolve the NAPAP inventory for use as a Eulerian model input tape.
RMDHS calculated hourly emission totals of NO , S02, SO^, NH3, and VOC,
allocated VOC and NO   into photochemical reactivity classes, separated
out major point sources, and assigned minor point sources and area
sources to grid cells.  The major inputs that enabled RMDHS to generate
the Eulerian modeler's tape from the NAPAP annual emission inventory
were temporal, spatial, and pollutant species allocation factors, whose
development is described below.

                               DISCUSSION

Temporal Allocation Factor Development
     RMDHS apportioned the NAPAP annual emission totals into hourly
totals for a typical summer weekday by applying the NAPAP temporal
allocation factors,  a series of fractional multipliers, to the EIS
emission file.   First, a seasonal fraction is applied to determine
                                  24

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 quarterly  emissions for the summer season.  Next,  a  daily  fraction is
 applied which apportions the seasonal total to a daily  total  for a
 typical weekday:

    daily fraction = (13 weeks/season) (number of operating  days/week)
 Similarly,  hourly totals ara calculated by multiplying  the  daily totals
 by one of  24 hourly fractions representing an entire diurnal  pattern.
 For example, if  all of a plant's emissions occur during an  8  a.m.  to
 5  p.m. workday,  the hourly fraction for each of thesa hours would  be:

             hourly fraction = 7;	  .  .   ,	7-3— =  0.111
                  J            9 operating hours/day
 The hourly fraction for the 15 hours of nonoperation would, of  course,
 be zero.
      RMDHS can generate default temporal factors based  on operating
 rates contained  in EIS point source records or uniform  emission
 distributions for area sources if no patterns are supplied.   Therefore,
 primary emphasis was placed on developing temporal  factors for  the
 54 NAPAP area source categories.   Since the temporal distribution  of
 emissions  most often directly reflects the temporal patterns  of  the
 activities  that  cause the emissions, related categories were  grouped
 together.
     GCA developed temporal factors based on literature and data sources
 published  by.the U.S.  Department of Energy, Department of Transportation,
 Civil Aeronautics Board, National  Weather Service,  and Bureau of the
 Census.   Also examined were previousy compiled regional-scale inventories
 such as the Northeast Corridor Regional  Modeling Project (NECRMP). the
 Regional  Air Pollution Study (RAPS), and the Sulfate Regional
 Experiment  (SURE), and inventories developed by several  States in support
 of their State implementation plans (SIP's).
     Since the NAPAP study area spans four time zones,  temporal factors
were standardized to reflect Greenwich Mean Time (GMT).   This  was
accomplished by creating four separate,  time-zone-specific temporal
factor files,  each with local  time adjusted to reflect GMT,  and processing
the EIS  data accordingly.   Thus,  hourly  emissions  in the Eulerian model
input tape  reflect GMT.
                                  25

-------
Spatial Allocation Factor Development
     Spatial allocation factors were developed to apportion NAPAP area
source emissions from counties to individual grid cells.  The NAPAP grid
system is comprised of 37,440 grid cells (156 rows, 240 columns^
approximately 20 x 20 km, extending from 65° to 125° west longitude and
from 25° to 51° north latitude.
     Each spatial allocation factor assigns a portion of a particular
county's area source emissions to a specific grid cell.  Generally,
since the actual subcounty distribution of area source emissions is
unknown, emissions are assumed to be distributed according to the known
distribution of some surrogate indicator (e.g., population).
     The objective in NAPAP was to develop as many surrogate values as
possible for each county to allow maximum flexibility in assigning
county level area source emissions to specific grid cells.  The surrogate
indicators  used in NAPAP include housing and population counts, total
land area,  and 10 land use classifications.  Once the distribution of
the surrogate indicators was known, county level area source emissions
were spatially distributed by matching area source emission categories
to the most appropriate surrogate indicators.
     Housing and population surrogates were derived from the 1980 Census
by assigning housing units and population counts to grid cells based on
the latitude and longitude of the centroid of each enumeration district.
Land use surrogates were derived using Landsat land use percentages for
each grid cell and grid/county relationships in the following algorithm:

                                      (AC.)(A  .)
                        SPAFCT,   -
where:
        SPAFCTpj.- = the spatial allocation factor for county C, land use
                    type S, and grid i;
              A-. = the portion of county C that falls within grid i;
              AC- = the portion of grid i with land use type S; and
                n = the total number of grids covering county C.
                                  26

-------
     The final  step  in  defining  spatial  allocation factors was development
of the surrogate  factor selection  file,  which  assigns each of the 54 NAPAP
area source categories  to  the  most appropriate surrogate indicator.
Species Allocation Factor  Development
     The NAPAP  emission inventory  includes  annual  emission rates for NO^
and VOC.  The Eulerian  acid  deposition model requires disaggregation of
VOC emissions into photochemical reactivity classes and separation of
NO  into NO and N02.   There  are  numerous possible  VOC speciation schemes
based on different modeling  chemistries.  To provide the flexibility of
developing and  testing  a number  of reactivity  schemes in NAPAP, it was
decided to provide a general  species listing for NAPAP point and area
source classes, which in turn  could be adapted to  fit any particular
modeling requirements.   This  objective was  achieved by coding a set of
"species profiles,"  each of  which  provides  a typical  list of VOC's for a
given process.   Each specie  is defined by its  SAROAD code,  molecular
weight, and weight percent of  total VOC  emissions.
     A separate SCC  Index  File was created  to  link the emission inventory
emissions classes (referenced  by SCC) to the most  appropriate species
profiles.   Finally,  a photochemical class assignment file assigns each
VOC specie (referenced  by  SAROAD code) to the  appropriate reactivity
class.  This approach was  taken  to provide  flexibility in establishing
SCC-profile-reactive class relationships.
                                 27

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      STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT

                      J.B. Homolya
                   Radian Corporation
             P.O. Box 13000, Progress Center
            Research Triangle Park, NC  27709
                 Contract No. 68-02-3174

            Project Officer:  J. David Mob ley
                     Presented at:



First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Irventory Symposium

                       Raleigh, NC



                   December 3-4, 1984
                            28

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              STATIONARY  SOIRCE  EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT
                         by:   J.B.  Hanoiya
                              Rad Ian Corporation
                              Research  Triangle Park,  NC   27709
                                ABSTRACT

     The Eulerlan atmospheric  model  under  development  for  acid
deposition analyses requires emission  data bases  of certain  chemical
species which &ct as direct acidic  emissions  to the atmosphere,
scavengers of primary or secondary  acids  In the atmosphere,  or  catalysts
In atmospheric transformation  processes.   Most  of the  chemical  compounds
or classes of compounds needed for  Input  Into the model  chemical
transformation/deposition modules are  non-criteria pollutants.   Limited
Information  is available concerning emission  factors for most species.
This paper presents a discussion of the NAPAP Task Group B emission
factor development project to  assess and  develop  emission  factors for
ammonia, primary sulfate, alkaline  dust,  and  specific  organic compounds.
                                    29

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              STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT
                               INTRODUCTION

     The National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) was
established by Congress  In  1980 to coordinate and expand research on
problems posed by acid deposition  In and around the United States.  The
Interagency Task Force on Acid Precipitation manages the program by
coordinating the activities of 10 task groups having the specific
technical responsibilities.  Task Group B (Man-Made Sources)  Is charged
with providing a complete and  accurate United States and Canadian
Inventory of emissions from man-made sources thought to be  important In
acId-deposIt Ion  processes.  Two distinct types of Inventory development
programs are required to address the research and assessment needs
within NAPAP:
     •    Detahed, mult [component point and area source disaggregated
          inventories for defined annual base years to support the
          development and testing of atmospheric transport and
          transformation models +o predict acid deposition; and
     •    Retrospective  Inventory summaries of acidic and acid-precursor
          emissions over the past 80 years to support historical analyses
          of material damage and to aid In developing policy assessments.
                               DISCUSSION

     The Eulerlan atmospheric  model under development for acid
deposition analyses requires emission data bases of certain chemical
species which act as direct acidic emissions to the atmosphere,
scavangers of primary or secondary acids In tha atmosphere, or catalysts
In atmospheric transformation  processes.  The preliminary 1980 NAPAP
emission Inventory for Eulerlan model use contains point and area source
emissions for:
     1.   sulfur dioxide (S02),
     2.   primary sulfate (S0.=),
                                    30

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     3.   nitric oxide (NO),
     4.   nitrogen dioxide (NCL),
     5.   ammonia (NH,),  and
     6.   volatile organic compounds (VOC)  di-aggregated according to 10
          photocliomlcal  reactivity classes.
With the exception of S0~, the remaining species within the inventory
are either non-criteria  pollutants or criteria pdlutants whIch have
been further disaggregated.  For example,  the oxides of nitrogen. (NO^)
and VOC speclation factors were developeo  under the Northeast Corridor
Regional Modeling Program (NECRMP).  Each  VOC Is defined by Its SAROAD
code, molecular weight,  and weight percent of total  emissions.  These
profiles are Independent  of any reactivity scheme,  and may be manipulated
by the modeler into any  reactivity classification.   The NO and N0_
allocation factors were  also contained within NECRMP at tne point and
area source classification code (SCO level  and were subsequently
Incorporated into the preliminary 1980 Inventory.
     An assessment was prepared to review  available SO = emissions data.
Adequate data exist for  coal- and oil-fired utility sources operating
without flue gas scrubbers.  Emission factors for these sources were
calculated and incorporated Into the NAPAP Inventory.  United data were
available for other fossll-fuei-fIred combustion sources, and qualitative
emission factors were formulated.   Many remaining SCCs lacked any
measurement data and only "best estimates" of SO =  emission factors
could be provided.
     A similar assessment study was prepared for NH, emissions.  Major
sources of NH^ Include I ivestock wastes, coal  combustion, ammonium
nitrate manufacture, anhydrous ammonia fertilizer application, petroleum
refineries, urea manufacture,  coke manufacture, and ammonium phosphate
manufacture.  Emission factors were calculated based upon available
data.
                                     31

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     The final 1980 NAPAP emission Inventory will contain 23 chemical
species or components:
     1.   Sulfur dioxide                     13.   Aromatlcs
     2.   Primary sulfate                    14.   Aldehydes
     3.   Nitric oxide                       15.   Formaldehyde
     4.   Nitrogen dioxide                   16.   Organic acids
     5.   Amrnonia                            17.   Formic acid
     6.   Carbon monoxide                    18.   Propane
     7.   Total VOC                          19.   Butane
     8.   Methane                            20.   Benzene
     9.   Alkanes                            21.   Acetic acid
    10.   Alkenes                            22.   Alkaline dust
    11.   Propylene                          23.   Total  partlculates
    12.   Ethylene
Specific organic compounds or classes of compounds have been requested
by the National Center of Atmospheric Research  (MCAR), who has the
responsibility for development and Integration of specific chemical
modules within tl>e Eulerian model development program.  Therefore, the
emission factor development and formulation activities over tfie next
2 years will  focus on the organic compound and alkaline dust emission
factor development as the highest priority needs.  Assessments of
available data Mill be prepared with recommendation for the condi-ct of
emission factor testing where necessary to develop data for important
SCCs lacking  Information.  In addition, an analysis of existing
continuous emission monitoring (CEM)  data for SO  and NO  will be
                             3                  2       x
conducted to  verify the representativeness of NAPAP emission factors for
major utility and  Industrial  point sources.
                                   32

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SESSION 2:  MAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITIES (continued)

Chairman:   John Bosch,  Chief
            National Air Data Branch
            U.S. En> Tonmental Protection Agency (F.D-14)
            Office of Air Duality Planning and Standards
            Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
                                   33

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           USERS' GUIDELINES FOR ACCESS OF THE

             1980 NAPAP EMISSIONS INVENTORY
                     Charles 0.  Mann
          U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
      Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
          Monitoring and Data Analysis Division
                      Presented at:


First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                 Raleigh, North Carolina

                   December 3-4, 1984
                             34

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                   USERS'  GUIDELINES  FOR ACCESS  OF  THE
                     1980  NAPAP  EMISSIONS  INVENTORY
                              INTRODUCTION

     An interim 1980 NAPAP emissions  inventory data base is  stored in
the Emissions Inventory System (EIS)  formats  for point  and area sources
on the U.S.  Environmental  Protection  Agency  (EPA)  IBM computer at Research
Triangle Park,  NC.   The NAPAP  data  were  developed starting with
information from the EPA's National  Emissions Data  System (NEDS).   These
data have been  improved by incorporating the  latest available emission
factors, substitution of data  from  the Northeast Corridor Regional
Modeling Project and other more  representative of 1980  NEDS  data,
cross-checking  the  electric utility data with the U.S.  Department of
Energy (DOE) data compiled by  E.H.  Pechan  and Associates, cross-checking
data with information from the U.S./Canada Work  Group 3B report,  and
adding county centroid latitude  and longitude for sources with missing
or incorrect Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates.   The
current data are preliminary and not  suitable for defining 1980 emissions.
Any use of the  data should note  the preliminary  nature  of the information.
Revisions and additions to the data will be  made based  on information to
be received from some States,  and other  changes  will  result from ongoing
NAPAP data improvement activities.
     Currently, NAPAP reports  annual  emissions of S02,  NO ,  VOC,
participates, CO, primary sulfates,  and  ammonia.  Additional pollutants
are to be added in  the future  per NAPAP  FY '85 and FY '86 program plans.
     Since NAPAP emission inventory development  activities began in
1983, a number  of standard versions of the inventory has been made
available to users.   A summary status report, covering  the data in
standard version 3.0 (data in  NAPAP as of  May 1984),  has been produced
and distributed.   In the future, updated standard versions of the NAPAP
inventory will  be made available to users.
                                   35

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     To obtain  NAPAP  data,  requestors may  address their  requests to:
                            Mr.  Charles 0.  Mann
                            U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency (MD-14)
                            Research Triangle  Park, North Carolina 27711
                            (Phone  919/541-5694, FTS 629-5694)
NAPAP data  can  be  provided  either  as computer files on magnetic tape
(standard EIS/PS and  EIS/AS master file  formats) or in a number of
standard hardcopy  formats.   Normally, magnetic tape files will be provided
as  9-track,  EBCDIC characters,  nonlabeled, 6250 bpi density unless the
requestor specifies otherwise.   The magnetic  tapes contain data for
individual  point and  area source records in standard EIS format.  The
entire file  may be provided or  only selected  records retrieved by the
standard EIS retrieval  language.   Requestors who want to obtain data on
magnetic tape should  forward their own tapes on which to write the
selected data.
     There  are  a number  of  standard format hardcopy reports that can
also be provided.   These reports may be  created using the EIS retrieval
language as  well.   A  partial  list  of the report formats that are available
is:
     •    EIS/PS detailed masterfile listing,
     •    EIS/PS condensed  masterfile listing,.
     •    EIS/PS emission summary  by geographic area,
     •    EIS/PS emission summary  by SCC,
     •    EIS/PS rank-ordered listing of emissions by plant/point,
     •    EIS/AS detailed masterfile listing, and
     •    EIS quick look report  (one line  listing of user-specified data
          items; available  for  both point  and area source data).
(Examples of  these  report formats  will be  presented.)
     Requests for  NAPAP  data that  can be satisfied by any of these
standard reports will  be processed by the OAQPS National Air D^ta Branch
as expeditiously as possible.   Computer accounts have been established
to cover the  cost  of computer resources, so there will not be any charge
to the data requestor.   Requests that cannot be satisfied by a standard
format reporv may  instead be completed by providing a magnetic tape file
                                   36

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to the requestor who will  be responsible for development of his own
software to process  the data.   Alternatively,  requests from within the
NAPAP user community that  require development of special software or job
control language to  complete will be considered on a case-by-case basis.
All such requests must be  approved by the NAPAP emission inventory
project manager (David Mobley,  IERL-RTP) who will  decide whether Task
Group B contract resources can  be committed to completion of such
nonstandard data requests.
     Since some of the data in  the NAPAP point source file originated at
State agencies who submitted the data to NEDS, the EPA is obligated to
honor claims of confidentiality for these data indicated by the States.
Data items that may  be claimed  as confidential include annual operating
rate, maximum design rate, boiler capacity, emission estimation method
code, and percent space heat.   These data will be  blanked out on reports
or files that are provided to requestors who are not authorized to
receive confidential data.   Only Federal employees and contractors
performing work for  the Federal government are authorized to receive
confidential data.   These  personnel must submit in writing a statement
that they will use the data only for government-related work and will
not release the data to anyone  else.
     In the future,  NAPAP  retrieval and reporting  capabilities may be
expanded to include  more standard report formats and computer graphics
capabilities.   Availability of  these new capabilities is dependent upon
the level of resources that will be available  in FY '85 and FY '36.
                                  37

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      HISTORIC EMISSIONS OF S02 AND N0x SINCE 1900
                     G. Gschwandtner
                    PES, Incorporated
                 Contract No. 68-02-3511
            Project Officer:  J. David Mobley
                      Presented at:

First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
                 Raleigh, North Carolina
                   December 3-4, 1984
                             38

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             HISTORIC EMISSIONS OF S02 AND N0x  SINCE  1900
                         by:  G. Gschwandtner
                              PES, Incorporated
                                ABSTRACT

     Historic emissions of sulfur dioxide  (S02)  and nitrogen oxides (N0x)
were estimated for Task Group B,  Man-made  Sources,  of the National Acid
Precipitation Assessment Program for each  State  of  the conterminous
United States.  Historic emissions were estimated by individual source
category on the State level  from 1900 to  1980 for every fifth year and
for 1978.   The source categories included  power  plants, industrial
boilers, industrial processes, commercial  and residential heaters,
natural gas pipelines, highway vehicles,  off-highway dies.el engines, and
all other anthropogenic sources.   These emissions were calculated from
salient statistics indicative of fuel consumption or industrial output,1
estimations of average statev/ide fuel properties, and estimations of
emission factors specific to each source  category over time.  The emission
estimates were then aggregated to show the estimated emission trends by
state, region, and all States combined.
     This paper summarizes the estimated historic emission trends on a
state, regional, and national scale.  The trends are presented by source
category and by major fuel type.   The emission estimates allow temporal
and regional trend comparisons between S02 and NO  emissions and  chemical
and biological effect trends being derived in other studies.  They
provide a basis for assessing pollutant damage,  for studying trends in
stream chemistry and deposition monitoring data, and for evaluating
proposed mitigation and control strategies.
                                     39

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              HISTORIC EMISSIONS OF S02 AND NO  SINCE 1900
                              INTRODUCTION
     Sulfur dioxide (S02) and nitrogen oxides (NO ) are considered
primary precursors of acidic precipitation.  The anthropogenic emissions
of these pollutants are  suspected causes of many biological and chemical
effects observed  in recent years.  Understanding th^ historic emission
trends is  important to understanding the development of acid-precipitation-
related problems  and causes of observed environmental effects.
     Annual quantities of emissions of S02 and NO  are presented for
each of the conterminous 48 states, including the District of Columbia.
Emissions  of each pollutant were estimated by source category for every
fifth year from 1900 to  1980 and for 1978.  Total state emissions were
interpolated for  the other years based on national consumption levels of
fuels.  Five-year intervals from 1900 to 1980 were selected to provide
an indication of  the emission trends sufficient for most effects studies
and to develop a  methodology that could be applied to all other years.
The state  level was selected because it provides the most complete and
consistent body of information on an historic basis and collectively
covers all geographic regions of the country.

                               DISCUSSION

     Average emission rates for each study year were estimated for
individual source categories for each state.  The source categories are
listed in Figure  1 according to the type of fuel consumed.  These
categories represent all types of boilers, furnaces, engines, processes,
and other man-mada emission sources.   The basic steps involved in
calculating state emissions are:
                                    40

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 I.
Figure 1.   Overall trend in S02 emissions from 1900 to 1980  for
           the United States by year and by fuel type.
                              41

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     1.   obtain state level information on fuel use;
     2.   allocate fuel quantity used by each source category;
     3.   develop source category emission factors;
     4.   determine fuel sulfur content by state for each category; and
     5.   calculate emissions, after emission controls.
     The actual procedure varied somewhat depending on th? usefulness
and availability of information.  It can generally be described in more
detail for two time periods:  1) 1950 to 1980, and 2) 1900 to 1945.
     For each source category, the annual fuel consumption (FC) was
multiplied by a representative emission factor (EF) for each pollutant.
For S02 , the emission factor was scaled by the average statewide sulfur
content values (S) of the particular fuel.  The calculation procedure
can generally be expressed  as:
S02 Emission = FC.  .  .  x Ef,n x S.  .  .
                 1 > J t *     iu2   ' > J >
                                                                     (1)
                 N0x  Emission =  FC.>j>kx EF^                      (2)

where:
       i =  study year,
       j =  source category, and
       k =  state.
     While these equations generally describe the approach, variations
occurred depending on the nature of the source category and available
information.  For a complete discussion of the specific methodology for
each source category, the EPA Project Officer may be contacted for
additional descriptions which may ue available.  This presentation
focuses primarily on the results obtained to-date.
     Figures 1 through 4 show the estimated trend in emissions of each
pollutant from 1900 to 1980.   The estimated trend is shown on the national
level  (the result of aggregating all state emission estimates), on the
regional level, and on the state level for selected states.  Total
estimated emissions are further divided according to major source and
                                  42

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no.
                                                     \
                                                             tfftl
                                                              nousim
                                                              UKIIIC 31II11 ItS
Figure  2.   Overall  trend in S02 emissions from 190U  to 1980 for
            the  United States by year and by source category.
                               43

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 on-
Figure 3.   0-erall trend in NO  emissions from 1900 to 1980 for
           the United States by year and by fuel type.
                              44

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no.
                                                              01*1
                                                              flflllKS

                                                            ;S uousrm


                                                              tuuiic ma 1 1 us
 I.
  Figure 4.  Overall  trend in NO  emissions from  1900 to 1980 for
             tt-e  United States b$ year and by  source  category.
                                 45

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fuel categories to show the role of historic emitter groups, the effect
of fuel switching, the effect of technological changes, and (recently)
the effect of fuel mixing and S02 controls.

                               CONCLUSIONS

     The historic emission estimates presented are consistent in the
estimating methodology used.  They provide a basis for studying the
relationship between emissions in the past and observed environmental
effects including tree-ring growth patterns, material damage, and acidic
deposition.  The emission quantities shown in this presentation should
be  considered the best available estimates at this time, but it should
be  remembered that, as work in this area continues, more refined estimates
may be made.
     The historic emission estimates show a definite trend in terns of
the total  nation.  State emission trends vary significantly depending on
the state's  location and geographic size, population, industries, and
other  factors.  NO  emissions appear to have been increasing almost
steadily in  all states, while S02 emissions appear to have decreased,
most recently since around 1970.
                                  46

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           DEVELOPMENT. OF A MONTHLY HISTORICAL
                   EMISSIONS INVENTORY
                      Duane Knudson.
        Energy and Environmenta.l  Systems Division
               Argunne National  Laboratory
                      Presented at:

First Annual  Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
                 Raleigh,  North Carolina
                   December 3-4,  1984
                           47

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                   DEVELOPMENT OF A MONTHLY HISTORICAL
                           EMISSIONS INVENTORY
                           by:  Duane Knudson
                                Energy and Environmental Systems Division
                                Argonne National Laboratory
                                ABSTRACT

     As atmospheric transport and deposition modeling capabilities
increase and monitoring data are accumulated, it becomes desirable to
also refine emissions inventories.   One such refinement is the application
of monthly fuel use and industrial  production data to define the
intra-annual variability of emissions.  This is the general approach
being taken to portion the 1980 NAPAP S02 emissions to monthly values.
Tne data bases for disaggregating annual emissions are Energy
Information Administration. Form 759 (formerly Form 4) for electric
utilities; the Quarterly Coal Report for coal use by industrial and
commercial/institutional sources; Federal Reserve Board (FRB) monthly
industrial production indices for industrial processes; industry-specific
fuel use and FRB monthly production indices for oil and gas use by
industrial boilers; and heating degree-day accumulation for space heating
for all  fuels.   Monthly S02 inventories are being prepared for utility
and nonutility sectors for the period 1975 to 1983.  This paper presents
1980 monthly S02 emissions for New York and West Virginia for the subject
sectors.
                                   48

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                   DEVELOPMENT  OF A MONTHLY  HISTORICAL
                           EMISSIONS  INVENTORY
                              INTRODUCTION

     Atmospheric  deposition patterns  are  largely  determined by
meteorological  conditions  and  precursor emissions.   The variability of
meteorological  conditions  controlling acidic deposition has been
recognized,  with  the consequence  that several years  of  meteorological
data are Leing  readied for model  analysis.   To  complement these data,
monthly emissions inventories  of  S02  and  NO   for  the period 1975 through
1983 are being  prepared.   These inventories  are designed to reflect
actual intra-annual and yearly emissions  variability, and when used with
the actual meteorological  data in model simulations  will eliminate some
unnecessary assumptions.
     The methodology used  to portion  the  annual values  is the focus of
this paper.   Review of the method will deal  first with  S02 emissions
from electric utilities,  next with  application  of 3.  number of data bases
to portioning annual S02  emissions  from industrial  (process and
combustion) institutional/commercial  and  residential source categories,
and finally for computation of monthly NO  emissions (yet to be
undertaken).   State total  monthly S02 emissions will be presented for
New York and West Virginia, a^ 3xamples of  the  type  of  results obtained.

                               DISCUSSION

     The 1980 NAPAP emission inventory (Version 3) was  used as a starting
point to define State total S02 emissions by 6-digit SCC class.  The
following paragraphs present methodology  and pertinent  data bases for
computing monthly S02 emissions for thr utility sector  and specific SCC
classes.  Data  bases used  for portioning  annual nonutility S02 emissions,
discussed in the  succeeding paragraphs, are listed in Table 1 for
respective SCC's.

                                   49

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                              Table 1   Data Sourc«a  for Estimation  of  Nomitiltty Monthly  SO2
                              Emission  Fractions  for NAPAP Source Categories
en
o
SCO Code
Description
Data Source or Approach for Estimating Monthly Fractions
POINT SOURCES
102001
102002
102003
102004
102005
102006
102007
102008
103001
103002
103003
103004
103005
103006
103007
103008
105001
105002
202001
203001
Industrial

External

Combustion

Boilers

Commercial/
Institutional
External

Combustion

Boilers

Ext. Combust*
Ext. Combust.
Int. Combust.
Int. Combust.
Anthracite
Bituminous
Lignite
Resid. Oil
Dist. Oil
Nat. Gas
Process Gas
Coke
Anthracite
Bituminous
Lignite
Resid. Oil
Dist. Oil
Nat. Gas
Process Gas
Coke
Space Htr - Industrial
Space Htr - Com/Inst.
Dist. Oil - Industrial
Dist. Oil - Com/Inst.
Quarterly Coal Report
Quarterly Coal Report
Quarterly Coal Report
Adjusted FRB monthly
Adjusted FRB monthly
Adjusted FRB monthly
Adjusted FRB monthly
Adjusted FRB monthly
Quarterly Coal Report
Quarterly Coal Report
Quarterly Coal Report
Unresolved
Unresolved
Unresolved
Unresolved
Unresolved
Local Cllmatologlcal
Local Cllmatologlcal
Unresolved
Unresolved
- 1981
- 1981
- 1981
production Indices
production Indices
production Indices
production Indices
production Indices
- 1931
- 1981
- 1981





Data - Heating Degree Day Accumulation
Data - Heating Degree Day Accumulation


     301       Industrial chemicals:  sulfurlc
               acid, plastics, organic chemicals,
               explosives, carbon black,
               printing Ink

     302       Food product processing
FRB monthly production Indices for SIC 2819:
chemicals
FRB monthly production Indices for SIC 209:
preparat ton
 inorganic
miscellaneous food

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 Table 1 Continued
 SCC Code
           Description
                             Data Source or Approach for Estimating Monthly Fractions
  303       Primary Metal:   Coke manufacturing,
            ateel production,  copper smelters,
            zinc, and other primary  metals

  304       Secondary smelting:   aluminum,
            copper, lead, etc.

  305       Mineral Products:  glass,  fiber-
            glass,  gypsum products,  cement,
            brick,  pottery

  390       In-Process fuel use

  306       Petroleum refining

  307        Wood  and  paper  products  (Including
            Kraft pulping)

  310        Crude oil  and natural gas  extraction
            (i eluding gas  sweetening)
AREA SOURCES
90100101
     102
     103
     104
     105
     106
Residential
Combustion
Anthracite coal
Bituminous coal
Distillate oil
Residual oil
Natural gas
Wood
                                       FRB monthly production Indices for SIC 331; haste steel, coking,
                                       and milt production
                                       FRB monthly production indices for SIC 333-6, 9; nonferrouo
                                       metalcj

                                       FRB monthly production indices for SIC 102-5, 108, 109; non-
                                       ferrous ores:  326-9; concrete and miscellaneous clay:  3151;
                                       brick:  324; cement

                                       Same as SCC 305

                                       FRB monthly production indices for SIC 291-9; petroleum refining

                                       FRB monthly production indices for SIC 261-263; pulp  and  paper
                                       FRB monthly production indices for SIC  131;  crude  oil  and
                                       natural gas extraction
Same as
Same as
Same as
Same as
Same as
Same as
SCC 105002
SCC 105002
SCC 105002
SCC 105002
SCC 105002
SCC 105002

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    Table 1 Continued
en
ro
SCC Code
90100207
208
209
210
211
90100313
314
315
316
317
318
320
90200121
90200122
90200123
Description
Commercial/ Anthracite coal
Institutional Bitumi.ious coal
Combustion Distillate oil
Residual oil
Natural gas
Industrial Anthracite coal
Bituminous coal
Coke
Distillate oil
Residual oil
Natural gas
Process gas
Residential Incineration
Industrial Incineration
Commercial/ Institutional
Data Source or Approach for Estimating Monthly Fractions
Same as SCC 103001
Same as SCC 103002
Same as SCC 103005
Same as SCC 103004
Same as SCC 103006
Same as SCC 102001
Same ao SCC 102002
Same as SCC 102008
Same as SCC 102005
Same as SCC 102004
Same as SCC 102006
Same as SCC 102007
Divide annual values by 12.
Divide annual values by 12.
Divide annual values by 12.
                  Incineration
     903
Transportation-related
Unresolved

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     For  the utility sector,  annual  emissions were those developed by
E.  H.  Pechan and Associates  for  the  years  1975 through 1982, with 1983
utility emissions computed by Argonne  using Pechan's approach.
Portioning annual emissions  to monthly values relied on fuel consumption
data presented in EIA Form 759.   Form  759  provides information on the
quantity of fuel consumed.   Fuel  quality information is available only
for fuel  delivered (from Form 423).  This  discrepancy necessitates the
assumption that the quality  of fuel  consumed in a given month is
approximated by the annual average quality of that type of fuel.  The
implication of this assumption on monthly  emissions estimates is being
investigated.
     Annugl coal combustion  emissions  from industrial and
commercial/institutional boilers (SCC  classes 102001-102003 and
103001-103003) were adjusted using quarterly coal consumption data from
     o
1981.    The 1981 data are the first  year of available data for coal
consumption.  Monthly fractions  were derived from the quarterly data by
dividing by three.
     Annual emissions from oil,  natural gas, process gas, and coke
combustion in industrial boilers (SCC's 102004-102008) were apportioned
to monthly values using fractions based on State-specific annual
industrial fuel consumption  and  monthly industrial production data.
Since the NAPAP inventory does not differentiate fuel combustion in
industrial boilers by industry,  State  fuel use by 2-digit SIC industrial
classification was used to determine weighting factors for use with the
monthly Federal Reserve Board (FRB)  production indices.   Annual industrial
fuel consumption, for use in weighting the monthly production indices,
was for SIC classes 20, 26,  28,  29,  32, and 33.   State-level industrial
fuel use statistics are compiled by  the Commerce Department and reported
in the Annual  Survey of Manufactures Fuels and Electric Energy Consumed.3
The weighting factors adjust the monthly production fractions for the
identified SIC classes by the relative amount of fuel consumed and
specific industrial class in each State.   The monthly FRB production
indices are compiled by the  Commerce Department based on output of
specific industrial classes.
                                53

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     The computation of monthly emissions for space heating in industrial
and commercial/institutional sectors follows the NEDS/NAPAP methodology.
That methodology holds 25 percent of the annual State S02 emissions
constant and apportions the other 75 percent on a seasonal basis using
heating degree day accumulation.  A difference in this methodology was
to apportion to monthly values.  A representative station for heating
degree day accumulation was selected for each region.
     State total annual S02 emissions for industrial processes (SCC's 301,
302, 3C3, 304, 305, 306, 307,  310, and 390) were apportioned to monthly
values through use of appropriate national average monthly FRB production
indices.
     Relevant data on which to base a derivation of monthly emissions
for commercial/institutional boilers burning oil, gas, and coke
(SCC 103004-103008) and internal combustion for industrial and
commercial/institutional sectors (SCC's 202001 and 203001) have not been
found.  Two options being considered for commercial/institutional boilers
are to use the coal-derived monthly fractions for the entire category or
simply to divide the oil, gas, and coke-related emissions by twelve.
Tentative plans for treating internal combustion of distillate oil in
the industrial and commercial/institutional sectors are to divide the
annual emissions by twelve to  get monthly values.
     Computation of monthly emissions for area sources of residential,
commercial/institutional, and  industrial fuel combustion follows the
methodology taken for corresponding point source categories.  Annual
emissions from residential, commercial/institutional, and industrial
incineration were disaggregated to monthly values by dividing the annual
estimates by twelve.
     Two major assumptions must be made to allow the use of 1980-specific
monthly fractions for computations of monthly emissions for the other
years in the analysis.   First, it must be assumed that relative monthly
activity in the specific categories is constant throughout the period of
interest (1975-1983).   The second assumption is that relative industrial
activity amor^ the States remains constant for the same period.  Given
these assumptions, the procedure for computing monthly emissions for the
subject SCC classes for the non-1980 years uses the national totals
presented in th report "National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates,
                                 54

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1974-1982"5 to adjust the  1980  SCC-specific  emissions for each year.
Relative changes to national  emissions  for each SCC are applied equally
to each State to compute year-specific  State total  S02 emissions.   The
monthly apportioning then  proceeds  according to the process used for 1980.
     The use of the same monthly fractions for all  years in the analysis
means that such influences on emissions as industry-wide strikes are not
reflected in the monthly emissions  data.   Conversely, any anomalies
specific to 1980 are propagated through the  entire  period.   This is not
strictly acceptable, but is a reasonable preliminary approximation
considering budgetary and  schedule  constraints.   It is planned to
reevaluate this assumption later, and,  if appropriate data are available>
compute year-specific monthly fractions for  years other than 1980.
     Results of application of the  monthly portioning are presented in
Table 2 for New York and West Virginia.  Monthly emissions estimates for
individual source classification codes  have  been consolidated into
source category totals.  As previoulsy  mentioned, satisfactory information
for portioning of annual S02  emissions  from  commercial and institutional
fuel combustion has not been  discovered.   Annual emissions for this
source category are thus assumed to be  uniformly distributed throughout
the year.   The other source category presenting some problems is the
potpourri of area sources.  In some States,  emissions from transportation-
related activities can contribute substantially to  total area source
emissions.  To date, however, project efforts have  focused on stationary
sources, necessitating an  assumption of uniformly distributed transpor-
tation S02 emissions.
     The monthly variability  of utility emissions is the major controlling
influence on monthly S02 emissions  for  New York and West Virginia,  which
is the situation for most  Eastern U.S.  States.   The combined contribution
of nonutility sectors in New  York has the potential  to significantly
influence monthly emissions.   However,  the monthly  variability of SOo
emissions from these categories is  small.  This suggests, although it
does not prove, that simplifying assumptions for nonutility source
categories may be acceptable.  Work continues on these questions.
                                 55

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                           Table 2  Preliminary Estimates  of  1980 Monthly  SO2  Emissions
                            For Nev York And West Virginia (Short tons)
 New York
                                Jan
        Feb
       Mar
                                                            May
                     Jun
                     Jul
                      Aug    Sep
                                                         Oct
                                                                         Nov
                                                                 Dec
                                                                  Total
   Utility
49050  40800  43180  41550  34550  38430   41550  43660  36360  34520
   Industrial Fuel Combustion  16247  16493  16704  16470  16080  16050   15030  15646  16201  16005
   Commercial/institutional
      Fuel  Combustion           5963   5963   5963   5963   5963   5963    5963   5963   5963   5963
   Industrial Processes         2757   2736   2774   2678   25>7   2422    2315   2409   2471   2599
   Area Sources                 5939   5939   5668   5126   4584   4381    4313   4381   4584   4855
                                                                34500   45360   483520
                                                                15904   15356   192186

                                                                 5963    5963    71556
                                                                 2674    264A    30996
                                                                 5397    5939    61106
   Total

 West Virginia

   Utility
J  Industrial Fuel Combustion
   Commercial/Institutional
      Fuel Combustion
   Industrial. Processes
   Area Sources
79956  71931  74289  71787  63694  67246   69171  72059  65579  63942   64438   75262   838364
80170  65420  73230  67120  62420  68440
 8457   8478   8514   6904   6798   6758
   70
 4773
 1542
  70
4913
1411
  70
5211
1367
  70
5055
1015
  70
4522
 817
  70
4174
 729
                                   88620  88890  79030  80820
                                    6907   6938   6986   7040
  70
3705
 707
  70
3115
 707
  70
4090
 773
  70
4432
102'4
                                                         84580  100070
                                                          7091    7071
                                                                  938820
                                                                   87942
  70     70       840
4804   4794     5358J
1235   1520     12852
   Total
95012  80292  883<*2  80164  74627  80171  100009  99720  90949  93386   97780  113525  1094042

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                               CONCLUSIONS
     Several data bases were accessed to provide information for
portioning State total  annual  S02 emissions to monthly values.  The data
can generally be characterized as fuel use and activity indicators.
                               REFERENCES
1.    Pechan, E.  H.  and J.  H.  Wilson,  Jr.   "Estimates of 1973-1982 Annual
     Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Electric Utilities.,"  JAPCA Vol. 34,
     No.  10, pp.  1075-1078.   (October 1984).

2.    U.S. Department of Energy,  Energy Information Administration,
     Office of Coal, Nuclear Electric, and Alternate Fuels.  Quarterly
     Coal Report.  DOE/EIA-0/21  (82/1Q),  (82/2Q), (82/3Q), (82/4Q).

3.    U.S. Department of Commerce,  Bureau  of the Census.   1980 Annual
     Survey of Manufactures Fuels  and Electric Energy Consumed.
     M80(AS)-4.2.  (Issued October 1982).

4.    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of
     Research and Statistics.   "Industrial Production Indexes, 1980."
     (September 1981).

5.    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning
     and Standards.   "National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates 1940-1982."
     EPA-450/4-83-024.   (February  1984).
                                  57

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                QUALITY ASSURANCE OF THE

           NAPAP MAN-MADE EMISSIONS DATA BASE
                    E.  C.  Trexler, PE
           Man-Made Sources Task Group (TG-B)
                U.S.  Department of Energy
           Office of Planning and Environment
                 Office of Fossil Energy
                      Presented at:


First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                 Raleigh, North Carolina

                   December 3-4, 1984
                          58

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                        QUALITY  ASSURANCE  OF  THE
                   NAPAP MAN-MADE  EMISSIONS DATA  BASE
                              INTRODUCTION

     The pursuit of quality  in the creation of  man-made  emissions data
bases brings with it the need  for  unique approaches.   While these
approaches are applied within  the.  principals  of traditional quality
assurance practices, it must be  recognized up front  that we must pursue
our objectives without the benefit of  significant absolute standards
against which we can measure the quality of our product.   The generation
of our product, as previously  discussed, is primarily  a  matter of building
from a framework of test data  a  highly disaggregated data base through
the application of estimates and assumptions.   It follows then that
quality must be pursued as a constructive  direction  and  not as a quanti-
tative objective.  The direction we have chosen provides the framework
for iterative improvement through  visibility  and  review.   Coupled with
this is a program of accuracy  assessment.  By making our assumptions and
results visible, we are trying to  encourage constructive feedback which
will lead to a more accurate product.   By  pursuing a program of accuracy
assessment, we will be providing the cons'jmers  of our  data our best
assessment of its true accuracy  at the time.

                              DISCUSSION

Review/Reconciliation
     Our review program can  perhaps be best understood by making reference
to Figure 1.  This figure is a simplification of  the review/reconciliation
procedure put in place last  December for the  review of Task Group B
emissions data bases prior to  their release for use.   A similar procedure
was also established for the Task  Group B  Model Set/Data Base.  It is
significant to note that these procedures  are end product review
procedures and are applied in  addition to  the normal quality control
practices followed in the development of the  data.
                               59

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                                                                        KICURE I

                                                          REVIEW/RECONCILIATION  FLOW D1ACRAM

                                                                   EMISSIONS  INVENTORY
             VALIDATION BODY 
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     Referring now to Figure  1,  it can be seen that the major participants
in the procedure are the Data Base Manager,  the internal Review Panel,
the External  Reviewers,  a Validation  Body (if needed),  and the Task
Group B Chairman.   The major  products are the Data Base being reviewed,
and a Data Compendium.   The Internal  Review  Panel  members are generally
persons who have not been involved directly  in the creation of the
product under review.
     Procedural action begins with the Data  Base Manager who, when he
believes his  data base is ready  for release,  assembles  a Data Compendium
succinctly describing the content, important rationale  and summarized
output from the data base and arranges for access  to the Data Base
computer tapes.  This data is then received  by the Internal Review Panel
where it undergoes reviews and perhaps some  modification.
     The next step in the procedure takes place when the panel decides
the data base is ready for external review.   Copies of  the Data Compendium,
and information on access to  the Data Base tape, are sent out to all
known interested parties with an invitation  to review and comment.
     Comments received by the panel and discussions are made with regard
to changes or future reviews.  The panel  might r.hoose to involve a
Validation Body in further re"iew.  When  satistied with the reviews, the
panel forwards its recommendations to the Task Group B  Chairman with
regard to release of the data base along  with its  rationale.
     Final release is made by the Task Group B Chairman.
Accuracy Assessment
     Our accuracy assessment  program should  be recognized as a modest
step forward  in estimating the accuracy of our end product, but obviously
limited in terms of real emissions data against which to measure true
accuracy.   Our objectivs is to provide an uncertainty or precision value
to coincide with each emission value coming  from the emissions data
base.  This will be achieved  oy  the construction and interconnection of
an Uncertainty Data Base such that the call  for a  report of an emissions
vs^.'e engages the Uncertainty Data Base in which resides predetermined
values of uncertainty based on the resolution, source type and emissions
species being reported.   The  construction of the Uncertainty Data Basa
will be accomplished through  the use of "Expert Teams"  who will judge
                                 61

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the precision with which we know such things as operating habits, fuel
quality, feed qualities and the emitting community as well as the normal
assessments of activity level, emission factors and control efficiency.
     The interconnection of the Uncertainty Data Base is seen in Figure 2
The kinds of factors which will be judged for each speci/resolution cell
will include those listed in Figure 3.
     Further information on the uncertainty data base will be provided
in the next presentation by Carmen Benkovitz.

                               CONCLUSION

     In conclusion, it should be recognized that the Quality Assurance
Program, like the data base work it serves, is in a relatively early
stage  in its development.  Its objectives at this time are to make mod?s
and general improvements.  The approach being taken follows the general
guidelines of quality assurance in terms of high reporting levels,
avoidance of conflicts of interests and visibility.   It relies a great
deal on stimulating corrective feedback, from external reviewers.  It
could  benefit greatly from increased measurement and feedback whereby
estimated emissions are compared with true measurements.
                                   62

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                                              FIGURE 2
                             UNCtRIALNTY ESTIMATES, EMISSION DATA BASE
01
co
                     EMISSIONS VALUES
                           AND
                     TEMPORAL PROFILES
                   UNCERTAINTY DATA BASE
                   -  UNCERTAINTY PERCENTAGES
                     BY  EMISSION CLASS
EMISSIONS REPORTS
- VALUES
- UNCERTAINTY PERCENTAGES

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Ch
-c.
              UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATES. EMISSIONS DATA BASE

              FACTORS WHICH AFFECT ACCURACY OF ESTIMATES

DEVIATIONS ON:

   (G)   •  EMISSION FACTORS:  AVAILABILITY, ACCURACY, DEVIATION, VARIABLES
   (A)   t  FUEL/FEEDj QUANTITY DEVIATIONS FROM ASSUMED VALUE
    A    •  FUEL QUALITY; S, N CONTENT DEVIATIONS
    B    •  ASSUMED IDENTIFY OF EMITTERS OR SOURCES
    c    •  INLET AIR TEMP. RELATIVE TO ASSUMED VALUE                                       \
    D    •  EXCESS AIR RELATIVE TO ASSUMED VALUE
    E    •  PRODUCTION ACTIVITY; QUANTITY DEVIATIONS FROM ASSUMED VALUE
    F    •  OPERATING PROFILES; RELATIVE TO ASSUMED VALUE
    H    •  CLIMATIC VALUES; RELATIVE TO ASSUMED VALUE
    j    t  VMT/POPULATION
    K    •  POPULATION
    L    •  FAR/POPULATION
    M    •  OTHER
   (RE)  •  CONTROL TECHNOLOGY EFFECTIVENESS

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            ESTIMATION OF W CERTAINTY WITHIN

               NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORIES
                    Carmen Benkovitz
              Atmospheric Sciences  Division
              Department of Applied Science
             Brookhaven National  Laboratory
                  Upton, New York 11973
        EPA Interagency Agreement No.  DW930122-01

            Project Officer:   J.  David Mobley
                      Presented at:


First Annual  Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                 Raleigh,  North Carolina

                   December 3-4,  1984
                            65

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                    ESTIMATION OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN
                       NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORIES
                          by:   Carmen Benkovitz
                               Atmospheric Sciences Division
                               Department of Applied Science
                               Brookhaven National Laboratory
                               Upton, New York 11973
                                ABSTRACT

     A major goal of Task Group Bis the development and maintenance of
detailed inventories of anthropogenic emissions in support of acid
deposition research.  The acid deposition emission inventory plan,
prepared as one of the EPA contributions to Task Group B, identifies the
need for emission inventories of current base years to support both
assessment activities and the development, evaluation, and use of long
range transport and transformation models.  The uncertainty estimates of
emission data are an integral part of the inventory.   The objective of
this project is to develop the methodologies needed to evaluate the
uncertainties associated with the emission data as presented in the 1980
base year NAPAP emission inventory and to implement a prototype system
to calculate these uncertainties.
                                   66

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                    ESTIMATION  OF  UNCERTAINTY  WITHIN
                       NAPAP  EMISSION  INVENTORIES
                              INTRODUCTION

     The NAPAP emission inv:ntory  was  based  on the  National  Emissions
Data System (NEDS) currently  operated  by  the Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards (OAQPS)  of  the  EPA (National Air Data Branch,
1983).   NEDS provided the basic data from which all other levels of
aggregation or disaggregation will  be  calculated.   The basic NEDS data
are statistical averaged parameters which allow the calculation of
yearly emissions of the five  criteria  pollutants (particulates, S02,
NO , VOC, and CO) on an individual  source/proctss basis for point sources
and on a county level for area sources.   Current plans call  for the
application of spatial, temporal,  and  species  disaggregation algorithms
which will be based on disaggregation  factors  (or modifications thereof)
developed for the Northeast Corridor Regional  Modeling Project (NECRMP).
Higher levels of aggregation  will  be calculated as  sums of the NEDS
data.
     Calculation of the uncertainty of the  emissions values will be
based on the statistical formulas  expressing the variance of a function
based on the expected values  and variances  of  the parameters used to
calculate the function.  Application of these  techniques will  start with
the algorithms used to calculate the yearly  emission values and will be
extended to include currently known algorithms for  spatial and temporal
aggregation and for spatial,  temporal, and  species  disaggregation as
applicable.

                               DISCUSSION

     The statistical formulas to be used  are those  expressing the variance
of a function based on the expected values  and the  variances of the
parameters used to calculate  thd function.   For N independent parameters
                                 67

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                               N
and a function of the form x=  2.  U.  , the variance is given by:
                              k=l

                                    N
                            V(x) =  I  V(U, )                         (1)
                                   k=l    K

                                N
For a function of the form x =  0  U., the variance is given by:
                               k=l   K

                      N                        N
              v(x) =  n  {[E
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     5.    Preliminary Evaluation  of  Acidic  Deposition  Assessment
          Uncertainties,  project  conducted  by  Argonne  National
          Laboratory (ANL)  under  contract to the  U.S.  Department of
          Energy,  November  1982  (preliminary report).
     All  these projects have  based their calculations  on the statistical
formulas  for error propagation as derived for  "small"  values of the
errors;  i.e., the  Taylor series  expansion included  only the first
derivatives of the function.   Some of  the error values used in  subsequent
calculations have  been as high as 80 to 90  percent  of  the mean.   For
this size errors,  the exact equations  derived  in  this  project represent
more accurate solutions.
Acquisition of Required Data
     Information currently  available in the NAPAP emission inventory
includes  data on yearly emissions of point  sources  at  the individual
source level and on yearly  emissions of area sources at the county/
category  level.   Parameters used  to  calculate  emission values include
emission  factors,  fuel, process  or activity rates,  ash or sulfur content
of fuels  (if appropriate),  and efficiency of control equipment  for the
appropriate point  sources or  category  adjustment  factors for area sources,
     The  development of the variance values for emission estimates or
for the parameters needed for the calculation  of  the emission values is
not within the scope of this  project.  Thece values are to be developed
by subsequent projects.
     Spatial, temporal, and speciation calculations are scheduled to be
implemented as add-on systems to  the basic  NAPAP  data.   Disaggregation
factors that were  developed for other  emission inventory projects are
being studied and  adapted for use in the NAPAP inventory.   Estimation of
the variances of all disaggregation  factors is being  included as part of
the output from these projects.
Implementation
     The  final task of this project  addresses  the design and
implementation of  the basic framework  of computer software needed to
calculate uncertainties associated with yearly emission values  for both
point, and area sources.  The  conceptual design is independent of the
software  system used to s-jpport the  NAPAP inventory; the design and
implementation of  the software modules will allow portability between
computer  systems and will be  as  independent as possible of the  current
NAPAP inventory software system.
                                  69

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     Uncertainty values associated with each parameter used in calculating
emission values are expected to be applicable for whole "classes" of
these parameters rather than just to individual sources.   To avoid
needless repetition of data (with the associated increase in storage
costs and the ever present danger at update times), a file with
uncertainty "profiles" will be designed.  This file will  contain all the
variance information needed to calculate the uncertainty value associated
with the yearly emissions of a point source or an area source category.
Each uncertainty profile will be identified by a unique code; at retrieval
time the appropriate uncertainty profiles can be referenced to allow th
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         REVIEW OP APPROACHES TO VOC SPECIATION
                       M.  P.  Papal
                     J.  C.  Dickerman
                   Radian Corporation
      Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27703
                      Presented at:


First Annual  Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
                 Raleigh,  North Carolina
                   December 3-4,  1984
                           71

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                 REVIEW OF APPROACHES TO VOC SPECIATION
                            by:   M.  P.  Papal
                                 J.  C.  Dicker-man
                                 Radian Corporation
                                 Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
                                ABSTRACT

     This paper presents the results of a study that was conducted to
evaluate the various approaches that have been used by atmospheric
scientists to speciate VOC emissions.   A wide diversity exists in
speciation approaches amongst studies  completed to data due primarily to
the requirements of the atmospheric model being used.   Recommendations
are that full speciation be encouraged in future program efforts to
provide the flexibility and accuracy required to accommodate the more
sophisticated models and mechanisms, and to provide data for air toxic
assessments.
                                   72

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                 REVIEW OF APPROACHES TO VOC SPECIAT IN
                              INTRODUCTION

     The Reagan Administration has established an Interagency Task Force
to investigate technical and policy issues associated with the formation
,and mitigation of acid ^.-ecipitation.  One of the concerns of this task
force is the emission of volatile organic compounds (VOC), which are
thought to participate in atmospheric reactions with nitrogen and sulfur
compounds resulting in the formation of acid precipitation.  VOC's are
also known to contribute substantially to photochemical reactions that
produce ozone.
     Although wide agreement exists on the importance of VOC in these
reactions, opinions differ markedly on the approach tc speciation for
VOC.  Researchers hav^ performed modeling and monitoring studies using
data bases with different degrees of speciation.  The objective of this
paper is to identify and review these studies and approaches, and to
provide the Department of Energy (DOE) with pvul.iminary recommendations
on the type of approach or approaches to be used for future VOC programs.

                               DISCUSSION

     The purposes of this study are to (1) identify the .various approaches
to VOC speciation used currently by atmospheric scientists, (2) describe
the rationale for each spociation approach, and (3) evaluate what degree
of speciation will be required for future photochemical and acid
precipitation modeling and monitoring programs.
     To fulfill the first two objectives, six studies were examined in
this paper including:
     *    the Northeast Regional Study (NEROS and NECRMP),
     *    the Houston Area Oxidant Study (HAOS),
                                  73

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     •    the EPRI/ERT VOC emissions inventory data base,
     •    Harris County (Houston, TX) VOC emissions inventory,
     •    Harris County Monitoring Study, and
     •    a modeling study supporting a Louisiana State implementation
          plan for ozone.
These studies focusud primarily on photochemical modeling to establish
the dependence of ozone formation on VOC emissions.  Although these
studies do not directly address acid precipitation formation, they were
selected for review because models and mechanisms specific to acid
precipitation formation and VOC are in the early stages of development.
Further, many of the VOC speciation issues are common to those encountered
for ozone formation.
     The better known chemical mechanisms included in atmospheric models
were also reviewed.  These mechanisms include:
     •    Dodge;
     •    Demerjian;
     •    California Institute of Technology  (CIT);
     •    Carbon Bond III (CB III);
     •    Atkinson, Lloyd, and Winges; and
     •    National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
These mechanisms were reviewed to evaluate the different speciation
requirements of each.
     Review of the six studies and the six chemical mechanisms revealed
that a great diversity exists in the requirements for speciation in the
current ozone and acid precipitation models and mechanisms.  Table 1
cjmmarizes each study, the speciation scheme, and the rationale for
selecting this scheme.   With respect to the chemical mechanisms, the
speciation requirements vary from two specific VOC species and one VOC
class in the simplest mechanism to 12 VOC species and classes in the
most sophisticated mechanism.   The VOC species and classes used in each
chemical  mechanism are selected by a modeler  to reflect his understanding
of the atmospheric chemistry involved.
                                  74

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                    Table 1.  SUMMARY OF VOC SPECIATION APPROACHES AND RATIONALE
       Study
    VOC Species Classes
            Rationale
 NEROS
HAOS
EPRI/ERT
Harris County Emissions
Inventory
Harris County Ambient
Monitoring Program
Louisiana SIP
Modeling Study
Approximately 150 individual
species
Detailed speciatiou grouped
into seven classes

10 species classes
133 individual species
38 individual species
monitored continuously

100 individual species in
C2-C10 monitored discretely

Detailed speciation grouped
into five classes
Dictated by the number of
individual species contained in the
speciation profiles from each point
and area source

Driven by photochemical model
requirements

Driven by input requirements for
the Atkinson, Lloyd, Winges
chemical mechanism

Dictated by the number of
individual species contained in the
speciation profiles for each source

Limits of analytical techniques and
cost
Driven by input requirements  for
the Carbon Bond III chemical
mechanism
Notes:   NEROS    - Northeast Regional Oxidant Study
        HAOS     - Houston Area Oxidant Study
        EPRI/ERT - Electric Power Research Institute/Environmental Research and Technology,  Inc.
                   data base

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     A second factor that has influenced VOC speciation approaches is
the development of more specific analytical methods.  In the past, some
classes of VOC (e.g., paraffins, olefins, aromatics) could be directly
measured by colorimetric methods.  These are no longer widely used,
however, since more accurate techniques that analyze specific VOC species
are now available.  Such techniques include gas chromatography with
flame ionization/photoionization detectors or gas chromatography with
mass spectrometry confirmation.  As a result, the input requirements for
a photochemical or acid precipitation model are satisfied by grouping
the individual VOC species  into the necessary reactivity classes.  Thus,
for most modeling studies,  full speciation usually precedes rather than
follows the development of  reactivity classes.
     Where the regional VOC species data are unavailable to photochemical
modelers, government agencies, or others interested in VOC emissions
the source most widely used to estimate these data is the VOC Species
Data Manual published by the EPA and developed by KVB, Inc.  This manual
contains speciation profiles or a large number of VOC-emitting source
types.  If the mass of total hydrocarbon is available for a source, the
relative fractions of individual VOC species (or reactivity classes) ara
given by the speciation profile.  It should be noted, however, that
although the manual is the best available source for speciation data, it
has several broad data gaps as well as inaccuracies that result from a
lack of actual sampling data.   In many cases, no sampling data at all
are available; in these instances, literature values and engineering
judgment are used, leading to inherent uncertainties in the speciation
profile.

                               CONCLUSIONS

     Based on the results of this study, full speciation should be
pursued for future VOC monitoring and modeling programs.   This preliminary
recommendation is based on four factors.
     1.    Currently available analytical methods suggest individual
          speciation over the older, less accurate methods for directly
          measuring VOC classes.   Data from the older methods on such
          classes would likely satisfy input requirements for only the
          simplest chemical mechanisms.
                                  76

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     2.   The broad diversity in the requirements for speciation in the
          current set of ozone and acid precipitation mechanisms strongly
          suggests that full  speciation be used.   Identifying exact
          species gives the flexibility of being able to use the data
          with a variety of mechanisms.

     3.   As ozone and acid precipitation models evolve, the need for
          full speciation will increase to accommodate the more
          sophisticated models and mechanisms.

     4.   Although not directly associated with acid precipitation,
          toxic air pollutant assessments are possible if full  speciation
          is utilized in ambient air monitoring and source sampling
          programs.

These conclusions are corroborated by the increasing trend toward full

speciation in most studies performed by most atmospheric scientists and
modelers.

     It should also be noted  that the number of VOC species that are
actually rneasurec' in a monitoring program will  be constrained by the

available budget and the ultimate use of the data.   Therefore,  the

thousands of VOC species that could potentially be measured must be

prioritized into a scheme that is consistent with the available budget
and the technical requirements of the program.
                                 77

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    NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT FOR FY-85/86

                     J. David Mob ley
     Air and energy Engineering Research Laboratory
          U.S. Fnvironmental Protection Agency
            Research Triangle Park, NO  27711
                     Presented at:



First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                       Raleigh, NC



                   December 3-4,  1984
                            70

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            NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY nEVELOPf.^fT FOR FY-85/86
                    by:   J.  Davtd Mob ley
                         Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
                         U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency
                         Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
                                ABSTRACT

     The major Inventory development activities of the National  Acid
Precipitation Assessment Program Task Group B for FY-85/86 are designed
to fulfill  the emission data base requirements for the development of an
Eulerlan acid deposition model.   A data handling system will  be
developed to provide the necessary spatial, temporal;  and species
resolution of the Inventory.  Planned quality assurance activities will
focus on establishing a QA expert team for review of the Inventory
development.  Emission factor developments will  Include VOC allocation
factors and an assessment of the use of continuous en.lsslon monitoring
data for SO. and NO  as a measure of comparison with the temporal
allocation algorithms Integrated In the Inventory data system.
                                    79

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            NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT FOR FY-85/86

                              INTRODUCTION

     In 1980, Congress established the National Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program (NAPAP) to coordinate and expand research relevant to
the problems posed by acid deposition In and around the United States.
The program  Is organized and managed through the Interagency Task Force
on Acid Precipitation (ITFAP) and 10 subordinate task groups coordinating
specific technical areas of research.  One of these 10 groups Is Task
Group B, Man-Made Sources, chaired by a representative of the Office of
Fossil Energy, Department of Energy.  The task group Includes members
representing the Environmental Protection Agency, the Tennessee Valley
Authority, and the National Laboratory Consortium.   The major objectives
of Task Croup B are:
     1.   Provide an accurate and complete Inventory of emissions from
          man-made sources believed to be Important In acid deposition
          processes.  The  Inventories are to be provided with adequate
          geographic, temporal, and sectoral  resolution.
     2.   Provide models which predict how acidic and acid-precursor
          emissions ma/ be altered by factors such as economic growth,
          fuel supply, emissions regulations, and control techniques.
          These models * I I I have the capability to permit the
          calculation of alternative control  strategies.
     The specific objectives of the Task Group B emission Inventory
Implementation program are:
     1.   Support the 1985 assessment to be performed by the ITFAP.
     2.   Provide the necessary Inventory refinements and resolution for
          the ITFAP 1987 and 1989 assessments.
     3.   Supoort tli<5 emission inventory needs for the Eulerlan model
          deveiopmenf and  validation programs.
                                    80

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                               DISCUSSION
     The primary focus of FY-85/86 Inventory activities Is directed to
fulfill  the emissions data base requirements for the development of an
Eulerian acid deposition model.  Within the EPA's Office of Research and
Development, the Environmental  Sciences Research Laboratory has been
assigned the lead responsibility to develop an Eulerian model  for acid
rain which Mill  be based on a framework similar to the Northeast Regional
Oxldant Study (NEROS) Eulerian  oxldant model.  The National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has been assigned the task of developing the
model framework  which Includes  a number of chemical  transformation
modules.  The variety of these  modules under development dictates the
specific chemical species required in the emission Inventory to drive
the model Input.  Development of the Eulerian acid deposition model
began In FY-83,  with preliminary testing to begin In FY-85.
     A major element of the emission Inventory structure Is the data
handling systems supporting the required temporal, spatial, and species
resolution for the NAPAP Eulerian acid deposition model.  Since the
temporal and spatial resolution requirements of the acid deposition
model are similar to those of the Northeast Corridor Regional  Modeling
Project (NECRMP), the data handling system used In NECRMP,  termsd the
Regional Model Data Handling System (RMDHS), was adapted for use with
the prelImlnary  1980 inventory.
     In order to meet FY-85 and FY-86 NAPAP emission Inventory
requirements, substantial mod If IcaMons to RMDHS would be needed,
IncludIng:
     •    VOC species resolution Into specific chemical classes,
     •    Additional inorganic  pollutant species,
     •    Derivation of alkal Ine dust emissions,
     •    Integration of Canadian emission Inventory, and
     •    Integration of natural  source emission  Inventory.
     Table 1 Is  a summary of planned tasks for the development of acid
deposition emission Inventories for atmospheric modeling and historical
emission profiles during the FY-85 and FY-86 tlmeframe.  In parentheses
after each task  Is a program code Identifier consistent with the FY.-86
Interagency Budget Proposal for Task Group B.
                                   81

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            Table 1.  ACID DEPOSITION EMISSION  INVENTORY TASKS



1.    NAPAP emission inventory for 1980 and 1904  (or  1985)  base years.

     A.    Develop spatial/temporal allocation system ('31-19b).

     B.    Generate  inventory report and  improve  software (Bl-19a).

     C.    Develop and apply 1984 S02/N0x allocation  factors  (B]-13a).

     D.    Integrate Canadian and natural source  inventories  (Bl-16).

     E.    Update annual data base (Bl-31).

2.    Quality assurance and inventory review/certification.

     A.    Document  QA/QC of S02/N0  inventory (Bl-18a).

     B.    Third party review and certify inventory (Ul-18b).

     C.    State review 1984 S02/N0x inventory (Bl-18c).

     D.    QA-expert team review inventory (Bl-20).

?.    Emission  factor development and formulation.

     A.    Develop and apply VOC allocation factors (Bl-14).

     B.    Develop allocation factors for S04, NH3, and  alkaline  dust
          emissions (Bl-15).

     C.    Conduct emission factor tests  (Bl-22).

     D.    Develop fuel use/emitter characteristics (B1-C1).

     E.    Analyze existing CEM data (Bl-13b).

4.    Historical emissions inventories.


     A.    Increase accuracy of S02/N0  inventory  (81-17a).

     B.    Develop special historic inventories  (Bl-17b).


     C.    Develop monthly S02/N0  emission data  base (Bl-23).
                                    82

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-------
   Data Handling
      snt«i
     (B1-1C6)
 hourly E»1jitom
     I>rof1l«»
     (§1-196)
  Spatial Sourc*
    Allocation*
     (11-13*)
     (11-19.)
        ±
1.   Afldyn
    OK Data (§1-136)

2.   OA/OC  (11-lSa)
    UnctrUlnty
     UHwU»
      (11-20)
!•  ^JtftooOiOfly AflB
    SoftMTI

2.   Eirltilon Fictan

3.   0* Cipart Uata
                                        I960 M*««

                                   EBISSIW  I*VOlTD«t
                                       S0|.  NO.

                              10 rOC Ptratocntvlca)
                                                                            Inuqnti
                                                                      Clrud1«n [ivtntory
                                                                            (§1-16)
                                                                                Ficton
                                                                            (81-15)
                                                                            (B1-Z2)
                                                                                  Tntl
                                                                        1980 NEDS FHn
                                                                    CO, Total PirtlCuUtM
                                                                     WC Allocation Fwton
                                                                            (I1-.U)
                        I960
                                  KID BfWSlTIOl ERISS10H IHVOTTWT
                  CO
               7.  Total VOC
               I.
                              9.  AlkaMt
                             10.  AlkMM*

                             11.  FroeyHn*

                             12.  Ct*rl«M
                             13.
                             14.

                             IS.
                             1*.  Ora»1c AclM
17.   Fotwte Acid
18.   Frepan*
19.   lutifM


21.   Acetic Acid
22.   AlUlIm Dint
23.   Total  Fartlculatn
                                     Output to IH«n
                                         (I1-19*)
                                                               Acent
                                                                      iCC
                                  Annual Haport (ll-lta)

                                       9/8S Drift
                                       12/«
       Figure  1.   FY-85 activities in developing the  final
                      1980  NAPAP  emission inventory.
                                             84

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    Hourly  Emission
        Prof11ts
        (Bl-19b)
     Spatial Sourco
       Allocations
        (81-13*)
       Editing and
        Validation
Annual
                81-31)
  1.

  2.
3,

4.
5.
Comparative
Assessments
Analyze
CEM Data  (Bl-13b)
Fuel Use  Emitter
Characteristics
(81-21)
3rd Party Review
      OA/OC  (Bl-18a)
      State Certification
      (Bl-18c)
Uncertainty Estimates
1.
2.
3.
(81-20)
Hetnodology and
Software
Emission Factors
QA Expert Terns
Legend
                                          198S NEDS  Flics

                                  SO,. NO , CO, VOC,  Particulars
                                              EIS/PS
                                              ns/As
                                     Inventory Improvements
                                         and Additions
                                                                                Integrate
                                                                            Canadian  Ir/entory
                                                                                  (81- (6)
                                                                            Emission
                                                                             Factors
                                                                              (81-15)
                                                                                Verification
                                                                                    Tests
                                                                                   (81-22)
                                                                         \i
                                                                             Natural  Sourcw
                                                                                 Invititory
                                   19»5 MM* A<1d Dtoosltlon
                                      Efl1«t1on  Inventory

                                     (Includes 23 pollutant
                                     sp«c1ts)
                                                                           VOC Allocetlon Factors
                                                                                   (81-14)
                                        Quarterly  Inventory
                                          Output to Users
                                             (81-19a)
                                                                Tape
                                                              Access
                                                               Through »CC
                                       Annual Report (Bl-19a)
                                            9/M Draft
                                           12/86 Final
                                            Annual Data
            — — under Consideration
            	 Planned
            Figure  2.   FY-86  activities  in developing  the  1985 NAPAP
                                    emission  inventory.
                                               85

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•the formulation of detailed allocation 'actors for SO   NO^. and all VOC
species required for the Eulerlan model.   Intensive QA/QC of tne
Inventory will be provided through both third party review of the data
base and specific state review of the S0«/N0  Inventory components.  In
addition, the CEM data evaluation will be  Intensified  In FY-86 pending
assessment of the results from the  Initial FY-85 program applied to the
1980 NAPAP emission  Inventory.
                                     86

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SESSION 3:  APPLICATION OF EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR SCIENTIFIC PURPOSES

Chairman:   Ed Trexler
            U.S.  Department of  Energy
            Office of Planning  and Environment
            Mall  Stop FE-13,  Room B-120
            Washington, D.C.   20545
                                      87

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SULFUR DEPOSITION MODELING WITH THE NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY
                       Terry L.  Clark
          Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory
            U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
        Research Triangle Park,  North Carolina 27711
                        Presented at:


  First Annual  Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
                   Raleigh,  North Carolina
                     December 3-4,  1984
                              88

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      SULFUR DEPOSITION MODELING WITH THE NAPAP EMISSION  INVENTORY
                               INTRODUCTION

     The Environmental Protection Agency and Environment  Canada are
coordinating the  International  Sulfur Deposition Model Evaluation (ISDME)
as an extension of  an  earlier  model evaluation effort.    One goal of the
current  study  is  to assess  model performance and credibility via
statistical evaluation of  the  1980  seasonal and annual model results
from as  many as 15  Lagrangian  and two Eulerian regional-scale sulfur
                  2
deposition  models.
     The evaluation year of 1980 was selected on the basis of the
significant increase in the number  of operational precipitation chemistry
monitoring  sites  in eastern North America during that year and the
availability of suitable U.S.  and Canadian S02 emission inventories for
that year 3'4
     Before any air pollution  model can be applied, point and area
source emissions  data  from  an  appropriate inventory must  be aggregated
or processed,  usually  via a  model "preprocessor," to create a more
compatible  input  data  file.  In an  evaluation study involving a group of
models,  it  is  essential that on; processing algorithm be  used to avoid
extraneous  differences between .nodel results.   Therefore, a uniform
processing  algorithm was developed  and applied by Benkovitz  to create
four sets of seasonal  and annual emission grids, any one  of which would
be compatible with  the ISDME models.
NAPAP Emission Data  Processing
     Essentially,  ISDME data processing involved extracting appropriate
inventory elements  (Table 1),  apportioning S02 emissions  to grid cells,
and creating model  input data  grids with configuration required by the
ISDME models.   Spatial resolution of these grid configurations ranged
from 70 to 127 km.
                                   90

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           Table 1   ELEMENTS  OF  THE  NAPAP  EMISSION  INVENTORY
        APPROPRIATE TO REGIONAL-SCALE  SULFUR  DEPOSITION  MODELING
               Element Name                         Reason  For*  Need

  State Code                                     Source  Identieication
  County Code                                    Source  Identification
  Plant Code                                     Source  Idenlification
  NEDS Point Code                                Source  Identification
  Date of Record                                 Uncertainty  Assessment
  SCC Code                                       Emission Apportionment
  SIC Code                                       Emission Apportionment
  Point Source Location                          Emission Apportionment
  Percentage Annual  Throughput                   Emission Apportionment
  Normal Operating Rate                          Emission Apportionment
  Annual S02 Point Source Emission  Rate           Emission Apportionment
  Annual S02 Area Source Emission Rate            Emission Apportionment
  Points With Common Stack                       Emission Apportionment
     For point sources,  as a means  of  data  quality  assurance,  the
inventory source coordinates were screened  to  determine  if  indeed  the
source was located within the designated  county.  When  the  coordinates
were missing or the inventory source coordinates  were  located  outside a
quadrangle whose perimeter was at least % degree  latitude/longitude from
any point along the county border,  the county  centroid  coordinates were
substituted as a correction.   For some states,  county  centroids  were
used for over half the point sources (e.g.,  Iowa, Kansas, Michigan,
Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina, and  Wisconsin).   These point
source location adjustments have been  incorporated  into  subsequent
versions of the NAPAP inventory by  Engineering Science.
     After the source location was  established, an  annually averaged,
effective stack height was computed for each point  source using  the
inventory stack parameters and climatological  atmospheric stability
data.   Frequently, the set of stack parameters was  incomplete  so national
average stack parameters for the appropriate SIC  were  substituted.

                                   91

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      Next,  the  seasonal  S02  emission rates  we^e determined  from percentage
 annual  throughput  data  and allocated to the proper layer (0-200,  201-500,
 and  above  500 m) of  the  grid cells  containing the source.   Seasons  were
 defined thusly:  winter    December,  January,  and February,  and  so forth.
      Area  source emissions,  which were available only  on a  county basis,
 were apportioned to  grid cells  according to the apportionment of  1970
 county  population  based  on U.S.  Census Bureau data.   Emissions  from area
 sources were assumed to  be injected in the  0-200 m layer
      Uoon  completion of  the  point and area  source emissions  data
 processing,  a  quality assurance program was implemented.  As a  result,
 for  each grid  cell,  the  sum  of  the  seasonal emissions  equalled  the
 annual  emissions.   In addition, the distribution of  ISDME annual  emissions
                                                            1 4
 compared very  well  with  that of the MOI emission inventory

                                CONCLUSIONS

      As a  result  of  the  ISDME emission data processing effort,  Lagrangian
 and  Eulerian sulfur  deposition  modelers have  at  their  disposal  1980
 seasonal and annual  3-layer  S02 point source  and 1-layer S02 area source
 emissions  grids for  North America.   Four different gi^d  configurations,
 ranging in resolution from ?0 to 127 km,  are  available.

                                REFERENCES
 1.    U.S./Canadian Memorandum of  Intent on Transboundary  Air  Pollution,
      Atmospheric  Sciences  and Analysis Work Group  2,  Phase  III  Final
      Report.   U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency.   Washington,  D.C.
      (1983).
 2.    Clark, T  L., D. H. Coventry, C. M. Benkovitz,  E.  C. Voldner,  and
      M. Olson.  The  International Sulfur Deposition  Model Evaluation,
      Phase  I,  North  American Evaluation, Volume  I.   To  be published.
 3.    Engineering  Science.  Development of the NAPAP  Emission  Inventory
      for the 1980 Base Year   U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency
      Contract  No. '3-02-3509.   (June 1984).
4.   U.S./Canadian Memorandum of  Intent on Transboundary  Air  Pollution
     Emissions, Costs and  Engineering Assessment Work Group 2,  Phase  III
      Final  Report.   U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency.  Washington,
     D.C.    (1982).
5.   Benkovitz, C. _M_.  Prjvate  communication.

                                   92

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           EMISSION INVENTORY APPLICATIONS TO

            REGIONAL ACID DEPOSITION MODELING
                      Joan H-  Novak
        Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory
          U.S.  Environmental1 Protection Agency
      Research Triangle Park,  North Carolina 27711
                      Presented at:
First Annual  Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                 Raleigh,  North Carolina

                   December 3-4,  1984
                           93

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                   EMISSION INVENTORY APPLICATIONS TO
                    REGIONAL ACID DEPOSITION MODELING
                           by.   Joan H.  Novak
                                Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory
                                U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                                Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
                                ABSTRACT

     A comprehensive Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) is being
developed ard a simpler fast-turn-around "engineering" model(s) (EM; is
being designed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part
of the NatiDnal Ac'd Precipitation Assessment °r,ogram (NAPAP).   This
paper describes how potential assessment appl ica :ions anj research
guestions affect those model designs and the subsequent emission
inventory regui rements.   Finally,  a recommendation ;s m^.de for the EPA
to consolidate inventory development efforts to produce an agency
emission inventory applicable to the wide soectrum of models and
applications throughout the EPA.
                                    94

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                   [MISSION INVENTOR/ AC-l't I f A TIONS TO
                    REGIONAL ACID DtPOSIIION MODELING
                              INTRODUCTION
     The scope and complexities of the arid rain issue in the United
States present modelers with conflicting requirements.   The models are
expected to be accurate and scientifica ly credible as well as easy to
use for assessment purooses.   Task Group C nf NAPAP   Atmospheric
Processes   is responsible for coordinating the model  development and
research efforts.   The primary model  development activities are being
performed at the National  Center for  Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in
Boulder, Colorado.   These  activities  include the development of 3
comprehensive Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and a simpler
fast-turn-around "engineering" mode'(s)   These models have great
potential to provide information needed to achieve many of the major
goals of NAPAP- l
     •    understand the basic cnemical and physical  processes related
          to acid depos i t i on,
     »    assess the severity  of acid deposition effects,
     t    determine the causes of acid deposition,
     •    assess the relative  importance of different causes of acid
          depos i t i on,
     •    assess the effects of man's activities on acid deposition, and
     •    determine effective  control strategies.

                               DISCUSSION

     The purpose of this discussion is to present an overview of the
current modeling approach  with special emphasis on emission inventory
reguirements.   The scientific  community agrees that a rigorous treatment
of processes relevant  to acid  deposition is essential for credible

                                 95

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result^.   Thus, the RADM will  include a  comnrehensive description of all
the major  physical and chemical processes  currently  known  to effect acid
deposition.  However,  incorporation of  this  level  of detail on a regional
scale extends  the model execution  time  beyond what  is considered
reasonable  to  address  the  policy and assessment  questions,  theie require
calculation of  long term averages  with  sufficient  speed  to  permit
extensive  experimentation  with  alernative  solution  strategies.
      The  EM, therefore, is  being specfically designed to address the
policy  and assessment  applications.  This  model  will incorporate condensed
representations of several  simple  nonlinear  physical and chemical
processes  contained  in the RADM and consequently will require a relatively
short execution time.  The credibility  of  the CM can, at a  minimum, be
evaluated  by comparison with  the more accurate  RADM  results.
                    T  9
      Recent reviews1'  have shown  that  a three  dimensional  Eulerian
framework  is the  most  feasible  general  approach  for  toth RADM and EM.
This  decision  has  significant impact on spatial  resolution  requirements
of  emission?.   The current RADM domain  covers the  entire continental
United  States  and  southern Canada.  Theoretical  considerations suggest a
20  x  20 km2 grid  resolution,  however, due  to computer time  and space
 limitations, a compromise  of  80 x  80 km2 grid spacinn was  chosen.  A
 larger  grid size  may  give  substantial inaccuracies.  Major  point source
emitters  and many  urban areas,  nevertheless, must  be treated  individually
 to  determine the  impact of  specific sources  and  to correct  for the
effact  of  chemical a.id physical phenomena  on a  subgrid scale.  Within a
grid  cell,  inhomgeneities  may exist in  emissions,  chemical  reaction
types and  rates, deposition,  and transport phenomena.  Development of an
independent module to  calculate correction factors  for each grid due to
these inhomogeneities  is being  planned.   Thus, a 20  x 20 km2 grid
resolution  for area emissions is required  to adequately parameterize the
effect  of  subgrid scale emission patterns.  The  RADM has up to 15 vertical
layers  and can  incorporate  emissions into  each of  these  layers.   Most
models  assume emissions at  the  surface with  instantaneous mixing aloft.
Multiple levels or emissions  should have a definite  accuracy advantage,
especially near the source.

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     The RACM,  because of its size and complexity,  is typically executed
ir, an episodic  mode for a 2 to 3 day period.   Annual  or long term averages
can be approximated by the weighted average of representative episodic
model results.   The RADM typically requires hourly  emissions for these
episodic applications.   A representative weekday/weekend diurnal pattern
for each season is adequate to produce the required temporal variation
of emissions.
     A comprehensive chemical reaction scheme detailed enough to handle
nonlinearities  resulting from sulfur,  nitrogen oxide  and ozone chemistry,
and cloud chemistry in both the gaseous and aqueous phases is necessary
to achieve many of the major objectives of NAPAP   An emissions inventory
is being developed which ic capable of addressing the above i.ssues on
the required temporal  and spatial  time scales.   It  j/i 11 include:
     •    major acid precursors (S02,  NO );
     •    sulfate aerosols because of  their contribution to the total
          sulfur budget ;
     •    volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide because of
          their importance in the  oxidation process;
     •    reactive hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides because of their
          role  in oxidant production;
     0    direct sources of ac;d species such as organic acids, and
          hydrochloric and hydrofluoric acid whose  vapors are incorporated
          into  clouds  and precipitation;
     •    coarse aerosols ('2.5 pm) and particles important to acid
          formati on;
     •    amronia for  its role as  a buffering agent in cloud chemistry;
     •    other buffering aerosol  species such as alkaline dust;
     t    aerosol  components key to catalytic conversion in agueous
          reactions (soot, iron, manganese);
     •    naturally emitted precursors to acid rain such as reduced
          sulfur spec i es; and
     •    other naturally emitted  species related to  acid or oxidant
          formation.
                                  97

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     In contrast, emission requirements  for  the  EM  are  less  stringent.
The model domain remains the same as RADM, however, grid  resolution may
be reduced.   The EM will have only three  to  five verticle  levels  P~id
each specific version would treat only one family of  Lhemical  species.
Parameterization of transformation and deposition processes  would  include
simplifications of the  nonlinear chemistry based on knowledge  gained
                                          2
from RADM executions and observation data.    Therefore, emission  species
requirements and, in fact, all  other emission  requirements,  are easily
satisfied by the RADM emissions data set.

                                CONCLUSIONS

     The  goals  of the NAPAP are too  broad to rely on  a  singular solution.
This brief  overview of  the atmospheric modeling  approach  illustrates  the
conflicting demands of  the research  and  assessment  applications and
their  implications  for  emissions  inventory development.   The  inventory
developers  must provide an emissions data base at a level  of  resolution
that meets  the  most stringent requirements,  and yet be  flexible enough
to transform those  base emissions into appropriate  spatial,  temporal,
and species resolutions to satisfy the full  spectrum  of needs  of  the
scientific  and  assessment/policy communities.  They must  also  be  able to
provide  estimates of uncertainty associated  with the  emissions.
     Finally, acid rain is only one  of the many  air pollution  problems
facing the  EPA  today.    Modeling assessment of  other problems  such  as
ozone, sulfate, visibility, particulate,  etc.  have many of the same
basic emission  inventory requirements even though differences  do  exist.
I  recommend  that the EPA integrate emission  inventory development
activities  to provide an agency inventory that will satisfy  the various
emission requirements of current and anticipated modeling  and  assessment
programs.
                                   98

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                               REFERENCES
1.
2.
3.
National Center for Atmospheric Research.   Regional Acid Deposition:
Models and Physical Processes.   IJ..S.  En-; i ronrnpnta; Protection
Agency Interagency Agreement No.  DW49930144-01-2   (April  1984).
National Center for Atmospheric Research   Summary
on Acid Deposition Policy and Assessment Variables
Approaches.   Boulder, Colorado.   (October 1-5,
    of the Workshop
    and Mode 1i ng
1984).
Middleton, P   Data Peguirements and Analysis for the NCAR Regional
Acid Deposition Model.   (October 1984).
                                 99

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              THE USE  OF  EMISSION  INVENTORIES

                    FOR  EFFECTS  STUDIES
                      Ann  M.  EUrtuskd
                     Wi i 1 i air  R   Al sop
                 .Acid Deposition  Program
              North  Carolina  State  l/nwersity
                      Presented at:


First Annual Acid Oeposition Emission  Inventory  Symposium

                 Raieigh, North Carolir.i

                   December 3-4, 1%4
                           100

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                     THE  USE  OF  EMISSION  INVENTORIES
                           FOR  EFFECTS  STUDIES
                          by:   Ann  M. Bartuska
                               Wi11iam  R.  Alsop
                               Acid Deposition Program
                               North Carolina State University
                                ABSTRACT

     Understanding effects  of  atmospheric  deposition  on  terrestrial  and
aquatic ecosystems requires that we understand  how systems  are responding
present'/ when compared to  past response.   Effects should be coupled to
deposition wherever possible;  however,  deposition data  are  incomplete
both spatially and temporally.   Attempts  to identify,  for example,
changes overtime in deposition of S04-2  and/or  H   ions  are  confounded by
differing methods of collecting rainfall'  (e.g.,  bulk  vs.  wet-only,  event
vs.  weekly or monthly,  etc.) and techniques for  measuring analysis  of
precipitation chemistry.   The  lack of  evidence  for a  strong nonlinearity
in the relationship between emissions  and  deposition  in  eastern North
America suggests that nonlinearity is  probably  not significant for
annual average deposition in eastern North America (National Research
Council,  1983).   When used  with appropriate consideration for the
uncertainties involved, this conclusion  provides  a powerful research
tool as the emissions data  base is much  more complete than  either
historical or '•egional  deposition data  base?..   The relationship of  S02
emissions on a State-wide or regional  basis to  changing  tree ring
chemistry and water quality is discussed  as examples  of  the potential
role of emissions inventories  in ecosystem assessment.
                                    101

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                      THE USE OF  EMISSION  INVENTORIES
                            FOR EFFECTS  STUDIES
                               INTRODUCTION
      Evaluation of emissions on a State-wide,  regional,  and  national
 level  is a major research activity for  determining  trends  and  patterns
 of acidic deposition.   Direct effects of  emissions  on  ecosystems  are  not
 as much a concern within current research programs  as  the  transport and
 transformation of emissions and the  subsequent  deposition  of substances
 on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.  However,  deposition  data  bases
 are incomplete with regard to various components, specifically  dry
 deposition and iretals.   If a consistent relationship between emissions
 and deposition can be  defined,  then  researchers can use  emissions data
 as a surrogate for deposition to describe spatial and  temporal  trends  in
 ecosystem response.  The remainder of tnis  paper  will  discuss  specific
 examples of ecosystem  research  where emissions  inventories are  appropriate

                                DISCUSSION

 Trends  in  Aquatic  Chemistry
     Acid  deposition effects  were  first brought to  the attention  of the
 scientific  community when  Adirondack lake waters  were  reported  to have
 decreased  in pH  to  levels  deleterious to  fish.  As  research  in  aquatic
 pcosystems  has expanded, we  are  not only  trying to  measure responses  to
 present deposition  levels   but  also evaluating  current responses  in
 terms of historical levels  of deposition.    Changes  in  lake or  stream
 chemistry reflect  the amount  of  modification  imposed on  deposition by
 the terrestrial  ecosystem.   Changes  in deposition quality may  be
 immediately reflected by changes  in aquatic chemistry  (direct  response),
or the effects observed  currently  may be  the  result of long  term  inputs
of acidic or acidifying  compound?  (delayed  response).   The chemical
characteristics  of very  few  systems are known prior to 1975/1980.  Thus,
                                   102

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trend analyses of lake and stream chemistry remain a dominant theme in
aquatic ecosystem research both from the standpoint of evaluating the
historical  record and being able to predict responses at changing
deposition rates.
     As historical deposition data for many regions of concern are not
available,  the relationship between trends in emissions and changes in
surface water chemistry is of particular interest1.   Two recent reports
have evaluated the relationship between these data:   1) Hendrey, et al.
(1983) developed the ACID data base to examine regional response, and
2) Smith and Alexander used the USGS benchmark stations coupled with
State-wide S02 emissions for site-specific trends in stream chemistry.
The USGS sites have an advantage1 over ACID sites because sampling and
analytical  methods have been consistent over the 10-15 year record, data
are quality assured, and the watersheds have experienced little or no
changes in land use.  Thus, although Smith and Alexander (1983) had data
for fewer sites (47 in the U.S.), the data and trend analyses for any
given site are probably more reliable.
     A comparison of emissions, deposition, and w^ter quality trends for
several southern States is presented in Table 1.  North Carolina and
Virginia stream sulfate concentration follows the emissions pattern;
however, inconsistencies in the other States make generalizations
difficult.   Predicting future response in other aquatic systems may be
possible as long as land use history is considered.   Because of the many
potentially confounding factors, detection of trends from atmospheric
pollution is best accomplished through consideration of streams with
negligible upstream disturbance.
Forest Response
     Recent concern over the impact of atmospheric deposition on forested
ecosystems has increased as reports of forest decline from Germany and
from the Appalachian Mountains of the U.S. increase.  Causal mechanisms
for forest decline have not been identified although many hypotheses
have been proposed.   Because trees are long-liv.J and respond to many
environmental changes, recent declines must be put in a historical
context in order to evaluate the role of anthropogenic pollutants.
                                  103

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Table 1.  Caqwl soa of treads In S Missions. S deposition, and sulfate concentrations In surface  waters.
suu


DC
»A
CA
11
sc
TV

1955
0.89
1.3?
0.48
2.20
0.62
1.98

I960
0.84
1.47
0.52
2.60
0.66
3J1
- S Ealssloni Density*

1965
1.10
1.76
0.88
3.88
0.72
3.18

1970
1.80
1.98
1.14
5.75
1.12
4.24

1975
1.77
1.48
1.90
5.80
1.12
6.02

\
1980 Increase 1953*
1.84
1.24
2.36
5.02
1.66
4.74
107 0.56
0
392
128
168 0.53
140

19540
0.36
1.63
0.55
0.98
0.41

Sulfur Depot Itlon

19S5b
0.71
2.22
0.88
1.72
1.05
1.44

1963C 1979d I9a0d
0.78 0.86* 0.79«
0.88 .88
1.05

1.04
1.55
Sulftte Trend
In Surface Hater*
Hendrey
I981d (t ,1 ,
0.68* MS
1.13 +*
1.01 ++
MS
1.00 ++
1.13 +
S»1th tnd
Alexander
+
.
MS

++
*
b Jord»j| «t tl.  1959; bulk depotItloA MUuraMntl
c tlBtull tad FIther 1966; MOdlVled faulk deposition •etMreaenU. tee dlscuision In text
d H40P BO/iltorlng sit**; w*t only iMasurtfMnts
• 4it» *ver«B*d  for sites only In e«stern Mortii Carolina In order to be comparable to the Gwbell  and Fisher (1966)  Mnltorlng network
* foslthe tread significant at p - 0.0$; ++ positive trend significant at  p • 0.01
- Negative tread significant at p - 0.05
HS Hot significant

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     Tree response over time can be assessed through an analysis of
long-term growth patterns by measuring annual  ring widths.   Changes in
this dendrochronologic record can be statistically analyzed and compared
to changes in stand history, climate,  and air  pollution.   However, this
comparison assumes an adequate record  exists.   While long-term climato-
logic data are available for correlation, the  sarce is not true for
atmospheric deposition.   Several studies  are using available emissions
data as an indicator of local or regional air  quality.   Assuming that
certain metals can be used as tracers  of  emissions,  trends  in the
concentration of metals in tree rings  can be used to track  air quality
conditions.   Baes and Mclaughlin (1984)  have shown a good correlation
between S02 emissions and Fe content in  tree rings (Figure  1).   Similar
trends for metals mobilized by acidification (e.g.,  aluminum) may aid in
our understand.ng of forest response to  acid deposition on  a regional
scale where local source emissions  are not implicated.
                                 105

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o
CTl
           D)
           •^»
           D)
           z
           O
DC
h-
Z
LU
O
Z
o
o
>-
DC
Q

Z
o
DC
               6.0
3.0
               0.0
                S02

               IRON
                                                                    8.0
    4.0
                                                                    0.0
                1890      1910
                             1930     1950

                          YEAR WOOD FORMED
                                                1970
1990
           Figure 1.  Iron concentration in short-leaf pine tree rings at Cades Cove, Tennessee and
                    estimated SO,-, emissions from within 900 km of Cades Cove (adapted from Baes
                    and Mclaughlin 1984)
w


m


to
O
z
<•-«

o
 CD

H

m

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   EMISSION INVENTORY REOIJ I RE.MEMTS  IN SUPPORT OF  ACID
      DEPOSITION ASSESSMENTS AND POL I'CY. DEVELOPMENT

                           by

                     Chuck Elk ins
          U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                   401  M Street, S.1V.
                 Washington, D.C..  20460

(Unable to attend; abstract and paper were not  submitted)
                              107

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SESSION 4:   RELATED EMISSION INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES

Chairman:    Ed Trexier
            U.S.  Department of Energy
            Office of Planning and Environment
            Mai I  Stop FE-13, Boom B-120
            '.,'ashlncton,  D.C,  20545
                                    108

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                     DEVELOPMENT OF
     THE CANADIAN ACID DEPOSITION EMISSION INVENTORY
                       Frank Vena
            Environmental  Protection Service
                   Environment Canada
                      Presented  at:

First Annual  Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
                      Raleigh, N.C.
                   December 3-4,  1984
                           109

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                                   ABSTRACT
         An  overview of  Canadian activities  to develop  emission inventories
for  the  acid  deposition program  is presented.   Initial  efforts emphasized  the
development  of emission  inventories  of  acid-causing  pollutants  to  assess  the
importance  of emission sources  in the  long range transport  of air pollutants.
The  information obtained was also  used  in simple atmospheric models simulating
the   transport,   transformation   and   deposition,   predominantly   of   502-
Currently  Canada  is  developing:    a)   comprehensive   inventories of defined
temporal  and  spatial  resolution  to input  to  more  complex modn"is that predict
acid  deposition and  oxidant concentrations;  b)  an  emission  forecasting   model
incorporating all  major emission  sources.  We are  also  maintaining   a current
inventory on  the major sources  of S02-
                                      110

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                                 INTRODUCTION
          The principle objective   of  the  Canadian  Long  Range Transport of Air
Pollutants (LRTAP) program is to obtain reductions in emissions contributing  to
the  long  range  transport of  air pollutants  in  order to  reduce  environmental
loadings  to  levels  which   ecosystems  can   tolerate.    In  support  of  this
objective, considerable Canadian effort has been put into establishing emission
inventories.  Such inventories are needed:   :

     (1)  as input to atmospheric models to establish the relationships between
          emissions and ambient concentrations and deposition rates;
     (2)  to assess  the  relative  importance  of  emission  sources  for various
          pollutants; and,
     (3)  in order  to  project the  impact  of  changes in emissions  of existing
          sources, coupled with contributions  that new sources will  be making.

          The  discussion  to  follow  will  centre  largely  on  the  emission
inventory activities that support atmospheric  modelling.
                                  DISCUSSION
          Environment Canada has carried out emission inventories of the common
pollutants  every  two years  in  cooperation  with the  provincial  agencies since
1970.   This includes a  detailed  emission inventory  for  S02  used as  input to
the  atmospheric  models  that  were  examined  under  the  United  States-Canada
Memorandum  of Intent  on  Transboundary  Air Pollution.   The information compiled
for  point  sources includes  geographical  location,  SIC/SCC codes,  stack para-
meter data, process data, emission factors,  control equipment efficiencies, and
annual emission values.   Area sources can be resolved spatially to a 127 km
                                       111

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grid and the file  includes  information  on  SIC codes, base quantity data,  emis-
sion factors and annual emission  values.   The information is maintained in  the
National Emissions Inventory System.

          These inventories  are  being  maintained and expanded to include-  other
pollutants  relevant  to  both  acid  deposition  and  oxidants  to  support  the
development  and  testing  of an  Eulerian  atmospheric  model   in  Canada.    (The
province of Qrlario, Environment Canada  and  the  Federal Republic  of Germany  are
co-sponsoring  the   development   of  this   irodel.)     The  pollutant   species
inventoried  for   the   base  year  1980   include   SO?,   504,  Nf)x,  speciated
VOC's,  MH3  and particulate  matter  (alkaline  fraction  identified  separately).
Inventories  quantifying  the  contribution   from   natural   sources  of   these
pollutant species  have  been compiled  based on generally sparse literature  data
and consequently can only be considered  as order of  magnitude estimates.

          Testing  and  validation  of   the  Eulerian model   necessitates   that
emission inventories be resolved  spatially to a 127 km  grid and temporally  to
provide diurnal, weekday  and weekend  variations in  emissions.   The model   will
initially be tested  against field  observations taken during  August 1980.   Work
is  currently  underway  in   cooperation  with  provincial   agencies  to   develop
three-hourly profiles  for  the major  point  sources  in  Eastern  Canada  of   S02,
NOXf VOC's  and TSP  for that  time  period;  typical  diurnal,  weekday,   weekend
and seasonal  emission  profiles are  being developed  for  area sources  for  the
base  year  1980.    Standard procedures  for  reporting  uncertainties  in  these
inventories will also  be  examined.   This work is  scheduled  to  be completed  by
March   1985.    The   development  of  a  1984  baseline inventory  to  support  the
analysis of  abatement  strategies  will  begin  in  FY 85/86 and  is scheduled  for
completion in FY 86/87.

          In  addition   to  the inventory  activities  supporting   the  modelling
program, other inventory  projects are also  being  done.   Future emissions  may
increase due to  the installation of new sources or an  increase in  Industrial
production or they may decrease due to a lagging economy.  It is  important that
                                      112

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these  changes  be  estimated as they  may  affect concentrations and  depositions.
Environment Canada  is  currently  developing an emission forecasting model  which
accounts for the major emission  sources.   The work is being done in  collabora-
tion with  Statistics  Canada who, through  their  Socio-Economic Resource  Frame-
work (SERF) model,  can. provide  the  economic  forecasts to  drive t'le  emissions
database at Environment Canada.   This work  is scheduled  to  be completed  in  FY
85/36.  Cans;h is committed to decreasing Eastern  Canadian emissions  to 2300  kt
SOj by  1994.   On-going periodic  emission  inventories of the  major  sources  of
S02 are being maintained  in  order  to monitor our progress  in  achieving  this
comrni ttient.
                                  CONCLUSION
          The  Canadian  emission inventory  activities  in support  of  the LRTAP
program  have  been summarized.   A  substantial part  of  the  current  and  future
effort will be devoted to supplying the data  needs of the Eulerian model.  Once
this model is  operational, the processes that govern the atmospheric transport,
transformation and  deposition of pollutants  should  be  better  understood.    In
this way the Eulerian model  can  be used  to  improve  the simpler LRT models that
are  used to  generate  annual   and  seasonal  source-receptor  relationships   and
which are more practical for assessing abatement strategy options.
                                       113

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             EMISSION INVENTORY REQUIREMENTS

         FOR DEPOSITION AND REGIONAL AIR QUALITY

              MODEL DEVELOPMENT:   A SUMMARY
                    Steven L.  Heisler
       Environmental Research and Technology, Inc.
                    696 Virginia Road
              Concord, Massachusetts 01742
                      Presented at:


First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                 Raleigh, North Carolina

                   December 3-4, 1984
                           114

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                     EMISSION INVENTORY REQUIREMENTS
                 FOR DEPOSITION AND REGIONAL AIR QUALITY
                      MODEL DEVELOPMENT:   A SUMMARY
                         by:   Steven L.  Heisler
                              Environmental Research and Technology, Inc.
                              696 Virginia Road
                              Concord,  Massachusetts 01/42
                                ABSTRACT

     Although several regional  and national  emissions inventories have
been prepared, none of them fulfill  all  of the requirements for
deposition and air quality modeling.   They are limited with regard tc
contemporaneity of data, pollutants  included,  spatial and temporal
resolution, or data reliability.   In order to  try to overcome those
limitations, a project is underway to develop  procedures to produce
inventories suitable for modeling air quality  and deposition in the
contiguous United States and Canada  during 1982.   The inventory includes
total emitted particulate matter, alkaline particulate matter,  primary
sulfate, sulfur dioxide, nitric ox'ide, nitrogen dioxide, ammonia, and
hydrocarbons classified by photochemical reactivity.   The nominal spatial
resolution is 100 meters for point sources and one-quarter degree
longitude by one-sixth degree latitude for area sources.  Average emission
rates during each of the eight  3-hour time periods of a day have been
estimated for weekdays and weekends  in each season.   Traceability of the
data to their origin has been maintained during the development to
enable differences between the  inventory and other inventories  to be
resolved.   This traceability also allows the inventory to be updated to
other time periods without major new developmental efforts.
                                   115

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                     EMISSION INVENTORY REQUIREMENTS
                 FOR DEPOSITION AND REGIONAL AIR QUALITY
                      MODEL DEVELOPMENT:  A SUMMARY
                              INTRODUCTION
     •••'••cise, accurate emission inventories a^e of great importance in
    L    ,ively evaluating air quality control strategies.  Source-oriented
 .,~c    'se pollutant emission rates and atmospheric dispersion charac-
teristics to calculate source contributions at receptors.  The precision
and accuracy of those calculations can be no better than those of the
emission information.
     Regional and national emission inventories have been prepared for
many parts of the United States and Canada.   The most comprehensive
inventories include the National Emissions D?ta System (NEEDS), and
inventories developed for the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE), the
Hultistate Atmospheric Power Production Pollution Study (MAP3S), the
Northeast Corridor Regional Modeling Program (NECRMP), The Memorandum of
Intent on Transboundary Air Pollution (MOI), and the National Acid
Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP).   None of these existing
inventories completely fulfill all of the needs for regional  deposition
and air quality modeling.   As recognized by their compilers,  each is
limited with respect to contemporaneity of the data, chemical substances
included, jpatial resolution, temporal resolution, or data reliability.
     To improve upon the situation, the Electric Power Research
Institute (EPRI) is sponsoring a project to develop and apply procedures
for the compilation of emissions inventories for 1982 for the contiguous
United States and southeastern Canada.
                                  116

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                               DISCUSSION

     The inventory compilation procedures for the project are intended
to satisfy several major requirements in the following areas:
     Materials:   Total  emitted particulate matter,  primary sulfate,
alkaline particulate matter,  sulfur dioxide, nitric oxide, nitrogen
dioxide, ammonia, and hydrocarbons classified according to photochemical
reactivity.
     Time Period:  The  most recently available point source inventories
are being obtained from NEDS  and State agencies.   Because some data in
those inventories are older than 1982, State agencies and emitting
facilities are being contacted to obtain mpre recent data for 200 major
point sources of nitrogen and sulfur oxide.   Approximately two-thirds of
the point source data is expected to pertain to 1982.  The 1982 NEDS
area source inventory is also being used.
     Spatial Resolution:  Point source locations are nominally resolved
to 100 meters.  Area source emissions are estimated by county.   To
provide higher geographic resolution, factors are being developed to
allocate country emissions to elements of a one-quarter degree longitude
by one-sixth degree latitude  grid system.  The factors are based upon
the fraction of county  geographic area that falls in each grid element.
Also included are data  needed to calculate point source emission injection
height (stark height, diameter, flow rate, and temperature).   The nominal
resolution for stack height is 1 foot.
     Temporal Resolution:  NEDS and State point source inventories
contain annual emission rates.  Seasonal, weekly, and daily operating
schedules in those inventories are used to calculate average diurnal
emissions (eight 3-hour time periods) for weekdays and weekends during
each season.  The NEDS  area source inventory does not include operating
schedules.  Therefore,  operating schedules for each area source category
are being developed to  calculate emissions with the same resolution as
point sources.  For example,  1982 heating degree days in each county
during each season are  used to calculate average seasonal emission rates
for residential fuel use.                          :
                                  117

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     Missing Values:  Data for some point sources in the NEDS and State
inventories are not complete.  Facilities and State agencies are being
contacted to obtain most missing data for 200 plants.  When possible,
typical values are being inserted for missing location (city or county
centroid), exhaust flow rate (based upon operating rate and engineering
practice), exhaust temperature (based upon type of process and emission
control device), control device removal efficiency (based upon type of
control device), and fuel sulfur and ash content (based upon type of
fuel) for other point sources.
     Erroneous Data:  A series of 90 tests is applied to data for each
point source emission point to identify suspect values.   The tests
compare values to normal ranges and check the consistency among different
quantities.   The values tested include exhcust parameters, locations,
control efficiencies, operating rates, and reported emission rates.
Most suspect data are being corrected for 200 major plants through
contacts with State agencies and plant operators.   Test results are
recorded in the inventory to evaluate data accuracy.
     Data Precision:  Point source emission rate precisions are being
estimated by applying propogation-of-errors methods to the calculations
and measurements used to determine them.
     Data Source Documentation:  The origin of each value is recorded in
the inventory.  When a value is changed, the origin of the new value is
recorded, and a record of the change is automatically produced.   Because
this information is maintained, comparisons can be made with other
inventories, and differences resulting from different sources of
information can be resolved.
     Data Retention:  All information used to compile the inventory has
been retained in it.  This allows it to be improved in two ways.   Firstly,
data older than 1982 can be identified and replaced with 1982 data as
they become available.   Secondly, procedures used to calculate various
quantities in the inventory, such as diurnal emissions from annual
emissions, can be changed when better procedures are developed.   The
revised procedures can then be applied to the data to recalculate those
quantities.
                                  118

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 DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATURAL SOURCES EMISSIONS INVENTORY
                   Daniel L. Albritton
                   Aeronomy Laboratory
     National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
                 Boulder, Colorado 80303
                      Presented at:


First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium

                 Raleigh, North Carolina

                   December 3-4, 1984
                            120

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         DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATURAL SOURCES EMISSIONS INVENTORY
                        by:   Daniel'L.  Albritton
                             Aeronomy Laboratory
                             National Oceanic and Atmospheric
                               Administration
                             Boulder, Colorado 80303
                                ABSTRACT

     Both natural and man-made sources influence precipitation acidity.
The former have been considered generally to be small, but the
uncertainties in these natural source strength estimates are very large.
The research of the Natural Sources Task Group is addressing these
uncertainties by new instrument development, technique intercomparison,
and additional measurements.   As a result of these efforts, a large part
of the existing body of data on biogenic sulfur emissions must be revised
upward.   New measurements in the summer of 1985 will  test the laboratory-
determined correction factors.  Lightning appears to  be a negligible
source of nitrate to the northeast, based on an estimate of the global
lightning-produced nitrate deposition patterns that have been established
by data from remote areas.   Airborne dust from unpaved roads appears to
be a significant source of neutralizing material and  hence needs to be
better quantified.   Further work is also required before the roles of
biogenic nitrogen and ammonia in acid precipitation can be considered to
be established.
                                    121

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         DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATURAL SOURCES  EMISSIONS  INVENTOR/
                              INTRODUCTION

     It is well known that both natural and  man-made sources release
chemical species that can modify acidic deposition.  If a controlled
reduction in man-made emissions were to occur, natural sources will
continue to contribute to acidic deposition.  As a result, the benefits
that would be anticipated from such a controlled reduction could be
erroneously optimistic vf natural sources make a significant contribution
to the present total acidic budget.   Therefore, the research of the
Natural Sources Task Group of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment
crogram is focused on one key policy question:
     Are the natural emissions of acid precursors and alkaline
     materials significant relative to man-made emissions?
     The natural emissions that are most relevant to precipitation
acidity are those of sulfur, nitrogen, and alkaline materials.   These
sources have several general characteristics that sh=ipe the approach
required to define their significance.  First, there is great variety:
e.g., terrestrial and oceanic biogenic activity, lightning, and airborne
soil and water aerosols.   Second, the sources can have large spatial
extent and temporal variations.   Third, while broadly distributed, the
fluxes are generally low at a given site, thereby requiring state-of-
the-art measurements.   Consequently, the research projects of the Natural
Sources Task Group have involved survey searches to identify the major
sources, rigorous laboratory and field assessments of the reliability of
existing data sets, instrument and technique development, and additional
fiald measurements.
                                   122

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                               DISCUSSION

     Since the source identification,  measurement technique and
reliability, and the extent of existing data vary considerably for the
various species, the approach has been different for each,
Sulfur
     Natural sulfur emissions from terrestrial  and tidal  areas have been
studied rather extensively by several  investigators, most notably in the
SURE study in the U.S.  southeast.   The Task Group research focuses on an
assessment of the reliability of that  data set.   Current  improved
standards, preconcentration techniques, and sampling methods are being
compared to those used in the SURE study and are resulting in an upper
revision of those earlier flux values.   These revisions will be checked
by side-by-side measurements in the southeast in the summer of 1935.
     The influx of sulfur species from oceanic  sources is being examined
in two ways.  First, direct measurements of the production of sulfur-
containing species have been made in nutrient-rich oceanic areas.   These
provide estimates of the source potential.   Secondly,  the influx of
airborne sulfur species into the southeast from the Gulf  is being examined
directly.   The first study was in the  summer of 1984 and  the next will
be in 1985.
Nitrogen
     The major sources of natural  nitrogen compounds appear to be biogenic
emissions  from soils and production by lightning, both of which are only
crudely known, largely due to lack of  measurement methods.   Thus,  the
Task Group has focused on the development of sensitive instruments and
flux-measurement techniques applicable to biogenic nitrogen emissions.
The field  trials of two methods - box  and gradient - will occur in the
summer of  1985.   For lightning, the approach has been to  develop an
estimate that is independent of the current one, which has relied on
estimates  of production per stroke and stroke frequency.   The Task Group
has examined the deposition of nitrate in extremely remote oceanic
areas, where lightning is likely to be the only source, and has determined
a global , tghtning-produced nitrate deposition  pattern.  For the U.S.,
this independent estimate supports the earlier  assessment, that this
source is  a minor contribution to east-coast nitrate deposition.
                                 123

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Alkaline Aerosols
     So little is known about the potential of alkaline aerosols to
neutralize acidity in precipitation that the present Task Group activity
has been to try to better define the problem.   For example, an assessment
has been made of the potential contribution of dust from unpaved roads
to airborne alkalinity.   The data suggest that such material, as well as
that from tilled fields, is a significant regional source and hence must
be bette   ,uantified.  Lastly, ammonia emissions are being addressed by
the Task Group.   With the initial goal of identifying major sources,
ammonia measurement techniques are being developed and tested.

                               CONCLUSIONS

     Biogenic sulfur emissions are likely to be larger than original^
thought, based on intercomparisons of new techniques with those used in
the earlier investigations.  Further lab tests and field measurements in
1985 will establish the revised emission values.   Ocean-to-land influx
of sulfur compounds appears to be small, but a recheck is scheduled in
1985.   Lightning contributes negligibly to northeastern nitrate.   Biogenic
nitrogen emissions remain poorly quantified and an assessment must await
additional field measurements.  Dust from unpaved roads is a significant
source of airborne alkaline materials and deserved better quantification.
                                  124

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SESSION 5:  PANEL DISCUSSIONS

Moderator:  John Fink, Chief
            Request and Information Section
           .National Air Data Branch (Ml-14)
            U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
            Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
                                   125

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                            PANEL DISCUSSIONS

EMISSION INVENTORY APPLICATIONS
     Joan Novak,  EPA
EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT
     Jirr Homolya,  Radian Corporation
HISTORICAL  EMISSION INVENTORIES
     Gerhard Gschwandtner, Pacific Environmental  Services
QUALITY ASrURANCE AND ESTIMATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
     Carre,i Benkovitz, Brookhaven National  Laboratory
                                     126

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APPEIOIX




ATTENDEES
     127

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        1ST ANNUAL ACID DEPOSITION EMISSIONS  INVENTORY SYMPOSIUM

                            LIST OF ATTENDEES
Betty Abramson
U.S. EnvfronmentaI  Protection Agency
Office of  Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mai I Drop  14
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-5694

Dr. Daniel L. Albritton
Aeronomy Laboratory/NOAA/ERL
U.S. Department of Commerce
325 Broadway, R/E/AL6
Boulder, CO  80303
303/497-5785

Thomas C.  A I I en
N,C. Division of Environmental Management
P.O. Box 27687
Raleigh, NC  27611
919/733-7015

Wi I Iiam R. Alsop
North Carolina State University
Acid Deposition Program
1509 Varsity Or ive
Raleigh, NC  27606
919/737-3520

Dr. David  G. Arey
Southern  Illinois University
Department of Geography SIU-C
Carbondale,  IL  62901
618/536-3375

Richard S. Artz
NOAA/AIr Resources Laboratory
8060 13th  St., Room 929B, Gramax Bldg.
Silver Spring, MD  20910
301/427-7295

Thomas R.  Ballou
Environmental Protection Agency, Region  II
26 Federal Plaza, Room 1005
New York,  NY  10278
212/264-2517

Syd Barton
Ontario Research Foundation
Shertden Park Research Community
MIssIsseuga, Ontario, Canada  L5K 1B3
416/822-4111

                                     128

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Dr. Ann Bartuska, Program Coordinator
Acid Deposition Program
North Carolina State University
1509 Varsity Drive
Raleigh, NC  27606
919/737-3520

Dr. P.V. Bates
University of British Columbia
Department of Medicine
2211 Westbrook Mai I
Vancouver, Canada  V6T1W5
604/228-'139

Carmen Benkovitz
Brcokhaven National  Laboratory
Building 51
Upton, NY  11973
516/282-4.^5

Christopher Ber.  sen
UtII ity Data  Institute
2011  I Street, N.W.  #700
Washington, D.C.  20006
202/466-3660  •

John Bosch, Chief
National Air Data Branch
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mai I Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-5582

Laurel J. Carlson
Massachusetts Department of Environmental
  DualIty Eng ineer Ing
1 Winter Street
Boston,  MA  02108
617/292-5773-

Terry L., Clark
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Mai I Drop 80
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-3372

Dr. Charles Comlskey, Director
Quantitative Environmental Analysis Division
Science Applications International Corp.
800 Oak  Ridge Turnpike
Oak Ridge, TN  37830
615/482-9031
                                    129

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Dr. Ursula M. CowgI I I
The Dow Chemical Company
2030 WH Dow Center
Midland, Ml  48640
517/636-1735

Dr. Ellis Cowl Ing
School of Forest Resources
North Carolina State University
Box 8001
Raleigh, NC  27695-8001
919/737-2883

Jim DeMocker, ANR-443
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air, Noise,  and Radiation
401 M Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C..  20460
202/382-5580

J1m Dickerman
Radian Corporation
P.O. Box 13000
Research Triangle Park, NC  27709
919/541-9100

David Dunbar
PEI Associates, Inc.
505 S. Duke Street,  Suite 503
Durham, NC  27701
919/688-6338

John Fink, Chief
Request and  Information Section
National Air Data Branch
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Mall Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-5694

Phi I ip Galvln
New York State Department of
   Environmental Consarvatlon
50 Wolf Road
Albany, NY  12233
518/457-0809

WllI!am GiI I
Texas Air Control  Board
6330 Highway 290 E.
Austin, TX  78723
512/451-5711
                                   130

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Daryl Grassick
Massachusetts Department of Environmental
  Qua! Ity EngIneerIng
1  Winter Street
Boston,  MA  02108
617/292-5594

Gerhard Gschwandtner
Pacific. Environmental Services,  Inc.
1905 Chapel HI I I  Road
Durham,  NC  27707
919/493-3536

J. Wick Havens, Chief
Air Quality Analysis Section
Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
  Resources, Air Quality Control
P.O. Box 2063, Fulton Building,  IS.tti Floor
200 North Third Street
Harrisburg, PA  17120 ,
717/787-4310

Steve Helsler
Environment?! Research and Technology
696 Virgin I a Road
Concord, MA  01742
617/489-3750

David D. Herlong
Carolina Power & Light Co.
HEEC Rt. 1, Box 327
New Hi I I, NC  27562
919/362-3285

David Ho I den
National 'Acid Precipitation
  Assessment Program
722 Jackson Place, NW
Washington, D.C.   20506
202/395-5773

Ben D. Holt
Argonne National  Laboratory
Bldg. 205 - CMT,  9700 S. Cass Ave.
Argonne, IL  60439
312/972-4347

James B. Homo!ya
Radian Corporation
P.O. Box 13000
Research Triangle Park, NC  27709
                                    131

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Bob Honea
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
P.O. Box X
Oak Ridge, TN  37830
615/574-5932

H.J. Huldy
Division for Technology for Society TNO
P.O. Box 217
2600 AE DELFT
Nether lands

Victoria L. HuI I
Edison Electric  Institute
1111 19th Street, NW
Washington, D.C.   20036
202/828-0831

Fu-Tien Jenq
University of North Carolina
  at Chapel Ml I I
M-6 Kingswood Apts.
Chapel Hill, NC  27514

Terrence Juchnowski
New Jersey Department of
  Environmental  Protection
CN027
Trenton, NJ  08625
609/292-5612

Brian G. Katz
U.S. Geological  Survey
208 Carroll Bldg., 8600 LaSalle Rd.
Towson, MD  21204
301/828 -1535

Robert C. Kaufman
f'etro Washington Council of Governments
1875 Eye St., NW, Suite 200
Washington, D.C.   20006

Stephen Kiel
Maryland Air Management Administration
201 W. Preston Slreet
Balti.rore, MD  21201
301/383-3245

Sue KImbrough
U.S. Env ironrrental Protection Agency
f€AD-NADB
Mai I Drop  14
Research Trtangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-5694
                                    132

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WllI em J. Kolstee
Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning
  and En i Ironment
P.O.  Box 450
Leldendam,  Netherlands  2260MB

Duane Knudson
Argonne National Laboratory
EES-Bldgt 362, 9700 S. Cass Avenue
Argonne, IL  60439
312/972-5102

Richard Larsen
U.S.  Department of Energy
376 Hudson Street
New York, NY  10014
212/620-3524

Phil  Ip Lapat
Newmont Services
Box 310
Danbury, CT  06810

Barbara Ley
Ontario Min.Istry of the Environment
880 Bay Street
Toronto, Ontario
Canada  M5S 178
416/965-5068

Robert A. Lott
Tennessee VaI ley Authority
449 Multipurpose Bui I'd Ing
Muscle Shoals, AL  35660
205/386-2033

Gerald W. Lowery
SAIC
1710 Goodrldge Drive
McLean, VA  22102
703/821-4555

Tom Lukow
Department of Energy
P.O.  Box 880, Collins  Ferry Road
Morgantown, WVA  26505
304/291-4540

Arch A. MacQueen
U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency
Air Management Technology Branch  (MD-14)
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-5585
                                    133

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Charles 0. Mann
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mai I Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-5694

Ronald J. Marnlclo
Carnegie-Meilon University/Center for
  Energy and Environmental Studies
Scalfe Hall 318/Frew Street/SchenIey Park
Pittsburgh, PA  15213
412/578-3873

E.L. Martinez
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mall Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-5585

ChrIs Mason
TRC Environmental  Consultants, inc.
800 Connecticut Boulevard
East Hartford, CT
203/289-8631

Mike MaxwelI
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Industrial Environmental Research Laboratory
Mail Drop 61
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-3091

Stephen V. McBrien
Th.e MITRE Corporation
1820 Do I ley Madison Boulevard
NfcLean, VA  22102
703/883-7685

Gordon Mclnnes
Warren Spring Laboratory
Department of Trade &  Industry
Gunnels Wood Road
Stevenage, Hertfordshire
England  SG12BX
(0438) 313388

Robert MIssen
Pacific Power & Light
920 SW Sixth Avenue
Portland, OR  97204
505/243-7048
                                    134

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J. David Mob ley
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Industrial  Environmental Research Laboratory
Mai I Drop 61
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-2612

Erie Mosher
Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources
P.O. Box 7921
Madison, Wl  53707
608/266-3010

Joan Novak
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Environmental  Sciences Research Laboratory
MalP Drop 80
Research Triangle Park, iC  27711
919/541-4545

WIII lam OlIver
Systems Applications,  Inc.
101 Lucas Valley Road
San Rafael, CA  94903
415/472-4011

Richard J. Olson
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
P.O. Box X, Bldg. 1505
Oak Ridge, T.N  37831
615/524-7819

Richard H. Osa
WI scons In Electric Power Company
231 W. Michigan - TSB3A
Milwaukee, W!   53203
414/277-2159

Marc Papal
Radian Corporation
7655 Old Sprlnghouse Road
McLean, VA  22102
703/734-2600

Diana M. Parker
Kentucky Department of Environmental Protection
Division of Air Pollution Control
18 Rellly Rd.,  Ft. Boon Plaza
Frankfort,  KY  40601
502/564-3382
                                   135

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William W. Parks, Division Director
State Air Pollution Control Board
9th St. Office Bldg., Room 801
Richmond, VA  23219
804/768-5474

Dr. Farn Parungo
NOAA/ERL
R/E 2
Boulder, CO  80303
303/497-6460

Edward H. Pechan
E.H. Pechan A Associates,  Inc.
5537 Hempstead Way
Springfield, VA  22151
703/642-1120

Steve Perry
North Carol In a NRCD
Division of Environmental  Management
P.O. Box 27687
Raleigh, NC  27611
919/733-7015

Roger Pfaff
EPA Region  IV
345 Court I and Street
Atlanta, GA  30365
404/881-7654

David PowelI
Battelle Northwest
2400 Stevens
Rlchland, WA  99352
509/375-3388

John M. Pratapas
Gas Research  Institute
8600 W. L/yn Mawr Ave.
Chicago,  IL  60631
312/399-8301

Brian H. Price
The MITRE Corporation
1820 Dolley Madison Boulevard
McLean, VA  22102
703/883-7648
                                    136

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Frances R. Prosser
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region IX
215 Fremont Street
San Francisco, CA  94105
415/974-7656

NevlIle Reid
Concord Scientific Corp.
2 TIppett Road
Downsvlew
Ontario,  Canada  M3H 2V2
416/630-6331

John F. R Ichards
Duke Un iversity
Department of History
6727 College Station
Durham, NC  27709
919/684-3966

Judah L.  Rose
ICF, Inc.
1850 K Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C.  20902
202/862-1100

Pam Saunders
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
NADB/MD-14
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-5694

Dr. V.K.  Saxena
'North Carolina Stale University
Department ofi Marine, Earth &
  Atmospheric Sciences
Box 8208
Raleigh,  NC  27695
919/737-2210

Ralph Scott
Department of Energy
P.O. Box 880, Col I Ins Ferry Road
Morgantown, WVA  26505
304/291-4540

Thomas A. SelIga
Ohio State University
2015 Nell Avenue
Columbus, OH  43210
614/427-076'!
                                   137

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Frederick M. Se!lars
GCA/Technoiogy Division
213 BurlIngton Road
Bedford, MA  01730
617/275-5444

JIm Serne
Pacific Environmental Services
1905 Chapel HI I  I Road
Durham, NC  27707
919/493-3536

Roderick Shaw
Atmospheric Environment Service
4905 Duffer In Street
Downsview, Ontario  M3H 5T4
416/66^-4885

Sarah J. Simon
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
JFK Federal Bui  Id  ing/ATS 2311
Boston, MA  02203
617/223-4861

Betty Sorrel I
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Off'ce of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mai I Drop 14
Research Triangle  Park, NC  27711
919/541-5582

J.  Richard S_/ulen
Technical  £ Management Services, Inc.
P.O. Box 321
Narberth,  PA  19072
215/667-0230

James Souther I and
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mall Drop 14
Research Triangle  Park, NC  27711
919/541-5575

Laurence S. Spelgel
Southern Company Services
P.O. Box 2625
Birmingham, AL  35202
205/877-7279
                                    138

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Jake Summers
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mall Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
919/541-5694

Michael F. Szabo
PEI Associates, Inc.
11499 Chester Road
Cincinnati,  OH  45246
513/782-4829

Douglas Toothman
Engineering Science
10521 Rosehaven Street
Fairfax, VA  22030
703/591-7575

Ed Trexler
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Planning and Environment
Mall Stop FE-13, Room B-120
Washington,  D.C.  20545
703/353-2683

Virginia P.  Tucker
Lee County Schools System
P.O. Box 2275
Sanford, NC
919/775-3350

C. Veldt
Division of Technology for Society TNO
P.O. Box 342
7300 AH APELDOORN
The Netherlands

Frank Vena,  Chief
Pollution Data Analysis Division
Environment Canada
Place VIcent Massey, 12th Floor
Ottawa, Ontario
Canada  K1A 1C8

Eva C. Voldner
Atmospheric Environment Service
4905 Duffer In St.
Downsvlew, Ontario
416/667-4788
                                   139

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Ronnle Watk!nr
Alabama Department of Environmental
  Management - Air Division
1751 Federal Drive
Montgomery, AL  36130
205/271-7361

Joel J. Watson
JRB Associates
8404 Glenwcod Avenue
Raleigh, NC  27612
919/782-8235

Boris Weisrmn
MEP Co.
7050 Woodbine Av-nue
Markharn, Ontar io
Canada  L3R 4G8

Arthur S. Werner
GCA/Technology Division
500 Eastown Drive
Chapel Mil I, NC  27514
919/489-6550

Thomas F. WolfInger
The MITRE Corouration
1820 Do I ley '-lad I son Boulevard
McLean, VA  22102
703/883-7661

Dave Yap
Air Resources Branch
Environment Ontario
880 Bay Street
Toronto, Ontario
Canada
4^6/965-5068
                                    140

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Page Intentionally Blank

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