PL
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EPA/600/9-85/01S
May 1985
PROCEEDINGS:
FIRST ANNUAL ACID DEPOSITION
EMISSIONS INVENTORY SYMPOSIUM
Janes B. Homolya, Compiler
Radian Corporation
900 Perimeter Park
Morrlsvllle, North CarolIna .27560
EPA Contract No. 68-02-3994, Task 005
EPA Project Officer:
J. D. Mobley
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
AIR AND ENERGY ENGINEERING RESEARCH LABORATORY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NC 27711
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
read /*sjsucnons on the reverie before, completing)
BE"ORTNO
EPA/600/9-35/015
3 RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO
J TITLE ANDSUBTlTLE
Proceedings: First Annual Acid Deposition Emissions
Inventory Symposium
& REPORT DATE
Mav 1985
«. PERFORMING ORGANIZATIOf CODE
7 AUTHORlSI
James B. Homolya, Compiler
8 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
9 PERFORMING OROANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Radian Corporation
900 Perimeter Park
Morrisville. North Carolina 27560
10 PROGRAM ELF.MENT NO
11 CONTRACT/GRANT NO
68-02-3994, Task 5
'2 SPONSORING 4GENCV NAME AND ADDfESS
EPA, Office of Research and Development*
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
13. TYPE Of REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Proceedings: 9/34 - 4/85
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA/600/13
is SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES AEERL project officer is J. David Mobley, Mail Drop 61. 919/541-
2612. (*) Cosponsored by U.S. Department of Energy.
" ABSrRACT The proceedings document a 2-day symposium on the progress in implemen-
ting the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) Task Group B's
emission inventory programs. The meeting was intended primarily for government,
academic, and private sector individuals involved in either developing or using at-
mospheric emission inventories for ac.'.d deposition and air quality research. Topics
included the development of emission factors for a wide range of pollutant emissions
and the use of detailed emission inventories for atmospheric transport, transfor-
mation, and deposition modeling. The meeting: 1) provided detailed presentation
and information transfer of the NAPAP emission inventory program; 2) illustrated
and strengthened the relationship between the emission inventory data base and its
users; and 3) compared and contrasted the NAPAP emission inventory with other
on-going emission inventory development programs.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATl 1-wld/CrOUp
Pollution
Precipitation
Acidity
Emission
Inventories
Mathematical Models
Pollution Control
Stationary Sources
Acid Rain
Emission Factors
13B
04B
07D
14G
15E
12 A
3 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release to Public
19 SECURITY CLASS IThu Rrporl)
Unclassified
21 NO OF PAGES
1A7
20 SECURITY CLASS I
Unclassified
23 PRICE
CPA form 1110-1 (»-71)
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NOT ICL
ihis document has been reviewed in accordance with
U.S. i.nvironmental Protection Agency policy and
approved for publication. Mention of trade namos
or commercial products does not constitute endorse-
ment or recommendation for use.
11
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ABSTRACT
A two-day symposium discussing the progress In the Imp IementatIcn
of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program Task Group B
emission Inventory programs was sponsored by the Environmental
Protection Agenc>'s Air and Fnergy Engineering Research Laboratory,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, In cooperation with the EPA
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards and the U.S. Department of
Energy. The meeting was Intended primarily for government, academic,
and private sector individuals Involved In either the development or use
of atmospheric emission Inventories for acid deposition and air quality
research. Topics Included the development of emission factors for a
wide range of pollutant emissions and the use of detailed emission
Inventories for atmospheric transport, transformation, snd deposition
model ing.
The meeting accomplished the following objectives: 1) to provide
detailed presentation and Information transrer of the NAPAP emission
Inventory program; 2) to Illustrate and strengthen the relationship
between the emission inventory data base and Its user; and 3) to conpare
and contrast the NAPAP emission Inventory with other on-going emission
inventory development programs.
iii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT,
SESSION 1: NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITIES.
Mike VaxwelI„ ChaI
Current NAPAP Emission Inventory Activities
J. David Mob ley
Overview of 1980 NAPAP Emission Inventory
Douglas A. Toothman
Ut 1 1 Ity Point Source Emission Inventory.
Edward H. Pechan
Development of Temporal, Spatial, and Volatile Organic Compound
Allocation Factors for the NAPAP Emission Inventory, ...... ........ 22
Frederick M. Sellers
Stationary Source Emission Factor Development.. ................... 28
J. B. Homolya
SESSION 2: NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITIES (continued) ....... 33
Users' Guidelines for Access of the 1980 NAPAP Emissions
Inventory ................... . .......... . ..... . .................... 34
Char les 0. Mann
Historic Emissions of S0_ and NO Since 1900.. .................... ,38
Gerhard Gschwandtner ; ' *
Development of a Monthly Historical Emissions Inventory ........... 47
Duane Knudson
Quality Assurance of the NAPAP Man-Made Emissions Data Base ....... 58
E. C. Trexler, PE
Estimation of Uncertainty Within NAPAP Emission Inventor les. < ..... 65
Carmen Benkovltz
Review of Approaches to VOC Spec lat Ion ....... ...... ............... 71
M. P. Papal (Speaker) and J. C. Dlckerman
NAPAP Emission Inventory Development for FY-85/86 ................. 78
J. David Mob ley
Preceding page blank
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SESSION 3: APPLICATION OF IMISSION I NVEMTOR I E S FOR
SCIENTIFIC PURPOSES 87
Ed Trexler, Chairman
Sulfur Deposition Modeling With the NAPAP Emission Inventory 88
Terry L. Clark
Emission Inventory Applications to Regional Acid Deposition
Mode ling ; 93
Joan H. Novak
The Use of Emission Inventories for Effects StudFes.. 100
Ann M. Bartuska
SESSION 4: RELATED EMISSION INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES 108
Ed Trexler, Chairman
Development of the Canadian Acid Deposition Emission Inventory,... 109
Frank Vena
Emission Inventory RequIrements for Deposition and Regional
Air Quality Model Development: A Summary 114
Steven L. Heisler
Development of the Natural Sources Emissions lnventory 120
Daniel L. Albrltton
SESSION 5: PANEL DISCUSSIONS 125
John Fink, Moderator
APPEND IX: ATTENDEES 1 28
vi
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SESSIOM 1: f'APAP EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITIES
Chairman: ''Ike ''ayw.cll
'J. 5. '^nv 1 ronnenta I Protection Agency CT5-61)
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
°esearch Triangle Park, fC 277H
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C'JPPEUT NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITIES
J. David ''obley
Air and Energy Engineering Desearch Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, MC 27711
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, MC
December 3-4, 1984
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NAPAF- EMISSION INVENTOR ACTIVITIES
by: j. fav i d ''ob I ey
Air and Energy Engineering Nearer, Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
De<.,earch Triangle Park, NC 27711
ABSTRACT
The most exacting requirements, in terns of dIsaggregatIon and
speclation of emission Inventory data wifnln N/PAP, are needed to
support the drvelcpmem and testing of the Eulerian acid deposition
model. The Initial 'iAPAP Task Group P. emission Inventory research
program began with a modific**ion and augmentation of the 1980 NEDS
Inventory to provide outputs suitable for Lagranglan modeling activities
and to support preliminary development of the Eulerian node). Current
activities are directed at assessing available data for formulation of
non-criteria pollutant emission factors, development of the preliminary
!980 NAPAP enlsslon Inventory for Eulerian model use, and development of
estimation methodologies to assess uncertainties of available emission
factors and the 1980 NAPAP emission Inventory.
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CURRENT MAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITIES
INTRODUCTION
In 1980, Congress established the National Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program (NAPAP) to coordinate and expand research relevant to
the proolens posed by acid deposition in the United States. The program
is organized and managed through the Interagency Task Force on Acid
Precipitation (ITFAP) and 10 subordinate task groups coordinating
specific technical areas of research. One of the groups is Task Group E
which is responsible for man-made sources. A major objective of Task
Group 3 is the development and maintenance of detailed 19,°0 and 1984
emission inventories to support acid deposition research and analysis.
The most significant uses of the inventories are for policy analysis and
to support both Eulerian and Lagranglan long-range transport/deposition
models.
DISCUSSION
The i-.x»st exacting requirements, in terms of d i saggregat Ion and
speciatlon of emission inventory data within NAPAP, are needed to
support the development and testing of the Eulerian acid deposition
model. Therefore, the needs of other inventory users, with the exception
of historical analyses, can be satisfied with an inventory that can meet
the requirements of the planned modeling activities. Very detailed
emissions information is needed for development, testing, and appl ication
of atmospheric rrodels. Detailed emissions data can require a substantial
lead time for development. Therefore, the timing of emission Inventory
needs of atmospheric model development is a key driving force in the
emission research strategy. Task Group 3 planning activities address
emission Inventory needs of the NAPAP research program, allocation of
resoons Ib I I Ity fo- planned activities to meet tliase needs, and
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procedures for c, -alitv af.sjr jnc<\ maintenance, artel d i str i but it^ of
enission inventory infcrma^ n;- (Voup B has been conducting d -.-
program to address tne follc/ ng as-essment of priorities in needs:
1. The primary focus of !.v 'ory activities Is. directed to
fulfill the emission nsta Ljase requirements for the
development of an Eulerian acid deposition model. Within tne
EPA's Office of Pesearch and Development, the Environmental
Sciences Research Laboratory has been assigned the lead
responsibility to cevelop an Eulerian nodel for ac . d rain
which will be based on a framework* s iml lar to the Northeast
Regional Oxidant Study (MEROS) Eulerian oxiaant nodel. The
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAFO has been
assigned the task of developing the model framework which
includes a number of chemical transformation modules. The
variety of these modules under development dictates the
specific chemical species required In the emission Inventory
,to drive the model Input. Development of the Eulerian acid
deposition model began in FY-83 with preliminary testing to
begin In HY-85.
2. Lagranglan model development and testing parallels work on the
Eulerian acid deposition model. Inventory requirements to
support Lagrangian models are focused on sulfur dioxide (S0_),
primary sulfate, and the oxides of nitrogen (NO ). Models
being supported by inventory development Include ASTRAP
(developed oy Argonne National Laboratory) and ENAMAP (ut i I ized
by the EPA's Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory).
3. Historical emi ss ion prof i I es are needed to assess long-term
effects of acidic deposition on materials, and aquatic and
terrestrial receptors.
The emission inventory development program within Task Group B
began In FY-82 at a resource level of $85,000. Funded activities
Incl ude'd:
1. Development of sn historical emission inventory data base for
S0_ and NO .
2 x
2. Prel Imlnary. development of primary sulfate emission factors.
3. Assessment planning.
4. Preparation of the initial NAPAP acid deposition emission
inventory implementation plan.
The Initial NAPAP emission Inventory implementation plan outlined a
strategy focused on the development of a NAFAP emission ,nventory for
the 1980 base year to be Initiated In FY-83. The 1980 NEDS (National
Emissions Data System) Inventory was modified and augmented to provide
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outputs suitable for Lagranglan modeling activities and to support
preliminary development of the Eulerian model.
During FY-83 and FY-34, the following program xt'Mtles were
performed:
1. Assessment of available data for the formulation of
non-criteria pollutant emission factors. Detailed assessments
were pr°oared for primary sulfate, ammonia, hydrochI or Ic acid,
and h/drofluoric acid.
2. Source measurement tests to complete emission factor
development for primary sulfate, ammonia, hydrochloric acid,
and hydrofluoric acid. Tests were conducted to fill data gaps
identified in the assessments.
3. Development of the T980 NAPAP emission inventory. The 1980
NAPAP inventory was developed in a phased approach. The
initial development was an interim Inventory produced to
support Lagrangian modeling studies. The data base included
an annual Inventory of SO , NO , and total volatile organic
compounds (VOCs) vor the contiguous U.S. The rJEDS utility
point source inventory was supplanted by ti,e E. Pechan
Associates utility emissions inventory prepared for EPA/DOE.
Area source emissions were aggregated at the county-centroid
level. The second phase in the development and refinement of
the 1980 NAPAP emission inventory has produced a preliminary
inventory for use In Eulerian model development and testing.
The Inventory includes point and area source^ for the
contiguous U.S. grldded to 1/6 latitude by 1/4 longitude areas
for S02, S04, NH^, NO , N02, and 10 VOC photochemical
reactivity classifications. A temporal allocation profile is
provided for a typical summer day.
4. Development of estimation methodologies to assess uncertainties
of available emission factors and the 1980 NAPAP emission
Inventory. As the development, applications, and refinement
of the NAPAP emission Inventories progress, quality assurance
and validation of the data bases are important activities
which serve to both improve and define the value of each
Inventory element.
Figure 1 Illustrates the interrelationship of the various tasks
performed to produce the preliminary 1980 NAPAP emission inventory *or
Eulerian model development and testing. A major elemrnt of the emission
Inventory structure Is the data handling systems support'-'g the required
temporal, spatial, and species resolution for the NAPAP Eulerian acid
deposition model. Since the temporal and spatial resolution requirements
of the acid deposition model are similar to those of the Northeast
Corridor Regional Modeling Projecl (NECRflP), the data handling system
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used In NECRMP, termed the Regional Model Data Handling System (RMDHS),
was adapted for use with the preliminary 1980 Inventory. RMDHS was
modified to fulfill the following Interim emission Inventory
requirements:
• spatial resolution to 48 states (20 km x 20 km grids);
• NECRMP VOC classes, using national species factors;
• NECRMP NO allocation factors for NO and N0»;
• S02;
• primary sulfate;
• ammonia;
• temporal resolution to a single typical summer weekday; and
• four separate time zones resolved to Greenwich Mean Time.
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1980 NAPAP
Emission Inventory
S0, N0, VOC
Preliminary
Hourly Emissions
Profiles
Spatial Source
Allocations
Primary Sulfate 4 NH
Emission Factors
'3 !
Inventory Improvements
and Additions
Preliminary VOC
Speclatlon
1980 NAPAP Acid Deposition
Emission Inventory
S02. SOj, NO, N02, NHj.
10 VOC Photochemical
RXN Classifications
Quarterly Inventory
Output to Users
Annual Report
9/84 Draft
12/34 Final
Tape
Access
Through NCC
Figure 1. Development of the Preliminary 1980 NAPAP Emission
Inventory for Eulerlan Model Use.
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OVERVIEW OF 1980 NAPAP
EMISSION INVENTORY
Douglas A. Toothnan
Engineering-Science
10521 Rosehaven Street
Fairfax, Virginia 22030
Contract No. 68-02-3996
Project Officer: J. David Mobley
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
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OVERVIEW OF 1980 NAPAP
EMISSION INVENTORY
by: D.A. Toothman
Engi neeri ng-Sci ence
Fairfax, Virginia 22030
ABSTRACT
This paper addresses the compilation of a 1980 emission inventory
for use in the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP).
The current inventory (Version 4.0) contains point source data for
50,200 plants with over 201,000 emission points and area source data for
the 3,069 counties in the 48 contiguous states and District of Columbia.
Emissions of S02, NO , VOC, sulfates, ammonia, CO, and particulates are
included in the inventory, but this paper focuses on S02, NO , and VOC
which are of primary interest for acid deposition research. NAPAP
Version 4.0 emissions of S02, NO , and VOC are 27.1, 23.7, and
23.3 million tons per year, respectively. Emissions in the NAPAP data
base are in reasonable agreement with Work Group 3B and Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) emission trends estimates. NAPAP
fuel use data show reasonable agreement with fuel values in DOE's State
Energy Data Report. Version 4.0 of NAPAP represents the best detailed
inventory of emissions on a national scale that has been developed to
date. Nevertheless, additional improvements are planned, focusing on
major point sources. The bulk of future NAPAP resources will be used to
meet the needs of Eulerian modeling activities.
10
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OVERVIEW OF 1980 NAPAP
EMISSION INVENTORY
INTRODUCTION
In 1980, Congress established NAPAP to coordinate and expand research
relevant to the problems posed by acid deposition in and around the
United States. The program is organized and managed through the
Interagency Task Force on Acid Precipitation (ITFAP) and 10 subordinate
task groups coordinating specific technical areas of research. One of
the groups is Task Group B which is responsible for man-made sources. A
major objective of Group B is the development and maintenance of detailed
emission inventories to support acid deposition research and analysis.
The objectives of the effort summarized herein were to develop the
initial 1980 base year emission inventory, evaluate its quality and
comprehensiveness, and identify actions needed for further refinement of
the data base in the future. The project required development of a
central, quality-assured data base of emissions of '-ollutants of interest
for acid deposition research and modeling. The area covered includes
the 48 contiguous states of the U.S. and the District of Columbia.
DISCUSSION
Version 4.0 of the NAPAP data base was developed starting with 1980
"snapshot" information from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's
(EPA's) National Emissions Data System (NEDS). The initial data base
was improved by incorporating the latest available emission factors,
substitution of data from the Northeast Corridor Regional Modeling
Project and other NEDS data more representative of 1980, updating electric
u'-'lity data with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) data compiled by
E.H. Pechan and Associates, cross-checking data with information from
the U.S./Canada Work Group 3B report, and adding county centroid latitude
and longitude for sources with missing or incorrect Universal Transverse
11
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Mercator (UTM) coordinates. The NAPAP data are stored in Emission
Inventory System (EIS) format on the EPA's IBM computer at Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina.
NAPAP data show that S02 emissions are dominated by electric
utilities, primarily from coal-fired generating stations located in the
eastern U.S. For NO , the largest sources are transportation (mostly
highway vehicles), electric utilities, and industrial combustion. For
VOC, emissions result largely from transportation (again primarily
highway vehicles), other industrial processes, and miscellaneous sources
which include organic solvent use not accounted for by point sources,
retail gasoline service stations, and forest wildfires.
The geographic breakdown of S02 emissions in NAPAP indicates that
EPA Regions 4 and 5 are the largest contributors. The eastern 31 states
account for over 82 percent of nationwide S02 emissions. For NO ,
Regions 4, 5, and 6 are the highest emitters, with the eastern 31 states
accounting for about 64 percent of national emissions. Regions 4, 5,
and 6 are also responsible for the greatest amount of VOC emissions.
The eastern 31 states account for 66 percent of the nation's VOC emissions
The relative importance of point versus area source emissions
varies for each of the three pollutants. Point sources contribute over
90 percent of national S02 emissions. For NO . emissions are nearly
evenly distributed. Area sources, on the other hand, emit almost
80 percent of total VOC emissions. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana have
the greatest S02 emissions. Texas, California, and Ohio are the greatest
r<0 emitters, while Texas and California have the greatest VOC emissions.
Seasonal variations were derived from operating data in the point
source inventory and seasonal factors added to the area source file.
Seasonal variations are less than expected. For S02, the maximum
variation is 3 percentage points, from 24 to 27 percent. The maximum
variation for NO and VOC is only 2 percentage points, from 24 to
26 percent. Emissions of S02 and NO are greatest in winter and lowest
in spring. VOC emissions are the highest in summer and lowest in winter.
Although it is effective plume height that is of greatest interest
to modelers, only stack height data are included in NAPAP. Thus, only
emissions by stack height range could be summarized. These data show
that nearly all VOC emissions (both point and area) are emitted below
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120 feet. Over two-thirds of the total emissions of N0x also are released
below 120 feet. On the other hand, nearly 40 percent of all S02 is
emitted at heights above 480 feet.
County emission densities were calculated and density ranges
summarized to obtain more information on the concentration of emissions.
For S02, counties in the highest emission density range result from
power plants located in the East, primarily in the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes areas. These counties represent only 4 percent of those in the
nation but have 54 percent of the total emissions. For N0x, the counties
in the highest range result from either power plants or highway vehicles.
These counties represent only 3 percent of those in the nation but
contribute 27 percent of the total emissions. For VOC, the counties in
the highest range result from solvent use and highway vehicles. These
counties represent only 2 percent of all counties in the nation but
contribute 29 percent of the total emissions.
A comparison of NAPAP, Trends, and Work Group 3B emissions of S02
and NO shows reasonable agreement. NAPAP total S02 emissions are
greater than Work Group 3B by 3 percent and than Trends by 5.5 perc.-r.t.
NAPAP and Work Group 38/Trends emissions compare well for all categories
except non-utility combustion. NAPAP total NC. ^missions are greater
than Work Group 3B by 11.8 percent and greet/- than Trends by 4 percent.
The greatest difference between NAPAP and >*.,I-A oroup 3B occurs for the
electric utility category. The differences o.-jtween NAPAP and Trends
occur for the electric utility, non-utility combustion, and transportion
categories. Some of the variation for utilities is a result of fuel
differences, but most is likely to be caused by different emission
factors and control efficiencies. The non-utility combustion cateaory
variation occurs for the same reasons as the variation in the utility
category except that the non-utility category may be more affected by
fuel differences. The transportation category variation occurs because
more detailed traffic data, available only on a nationwide basis, are
used in developing the Trends estimate.
1J
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CONCLUSIONS
Version 4.0 of NAPAP represents a detailed inventory of emissions
on a national scale for the 1980 base year. Over 80 percent of the
NAPAP emissions truly represent 1980. Over 90 percent are in the range
from 1978 to 1981. Many of these large emitting facilities are electric
utility plants and nonferrous smelters for which extensive quality
assurance efforts have already been performed. About 80 percent of
point source S02 and NO emissions occur at sources with complete stack
data and valid DIM coordinates.
Future resources -/ill be used to try to improve NAPAP to meet the
needs of Eulerian modeling activities. Additional quality assurance
efforts are planned for the 1980 data base focusing on major point
sources. Additional pollutants not now in NAPAP, speciation of VOC and
NO emissions, hourly temporal resolution of emissions, and spatial
resolution of data into small grid zones covering the entire U.S. will
be required. Other activities include incorporation of emission data
for Canada into NAPAP, coordination with Task Group A to include natural
emission sources into NAPAP, and a statistical evaluation of the
uncertainty of NAPAP emission estimates.
REFERENCES
1. ''National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1982."
EPA-450/4-83-024. (February 1984).
2. "Emissions, Costs, and Engineering Assessments." Work Group 3B,
U.S./Canada Memorandum of Intent on Transboundary Air Pollution.
(June 1982).
14
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UTILITY POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY
Edward H. Pechan
E. H. Pechan and Associates, Inc.
Springfield, Virginia 22151
Contract No. 68-02-4070
Project Officer: Paul Schwengels
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
15
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UTILITY POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY
by: Paul Schwengels
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
ABSTRACT
Estimates of 1973-1982 annual S02 emissions from electric utility
plants are presented in this paper. Results are based on analyses of
plant level data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy on consumption
and quality of fuels burned. Emissions are estimated from known
information about fuel consumption, sulfur content, ash content, and
control equipment. Results show that these reductions were due to the
use of lower sulfur coals and to the operation of flue gas desulfurization
equipment.
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UTILITY POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY
INTRODUCTION
In the United States, the electric utility industry is responsible
for approximately two-thirds of S0x emissions (where S0x is expressed as
S02). Therefore, it follows that much of the interest in the acid rain
debate has focused on electric utilities. A number of researchers in
the field are likely to have ah interest in knowing how utility emissions
have behaved in the last decade.
This paper provides detailed and definitive information on annual
S02 emissions from generating plants operated by the electric utility
industry over the period 1973 through 1982. To produce these emission
estimates, a detailed data base at the individual plant level of detail
was used. For this paper, annual S02 emission estimates are presented
at the State level. More detailed information (e.g., plant level
emissions) is available from the authors.
The utility data base used to develop the S02 emission estimates
presented in this paper is also being used as part of the NAPAP Acid
Deposition Emission Inventory.
DISCUSSION
A variety of sources were employed to develop the data base used in
this study. Results are based on the authors' analyses of primary data
collected and automated by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy
Information Administration (EIA). These analyses included all
fossil-fueled units, both steam and nonsteam. Data were merged to
create a file containing a single record for each plant with all data
elements of interest. The definition of a plant used for this analysis
is identical to that used by Of" in the assignment of plant codes. That
is, data from units at a single site were aggregated even if these units
17
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were operated bv different utilities. In addition, facilities owned by
an industrial user were excluded even if they exist at a site that is
also producing electricity for public distribution.
Primary data sources for this work include Federal Power
Commission (FPC) Forms 4 and 423,1 and the EPA's Utility Flue Gas
2
Desulfurization (FGD) Survey. FPC Form 4 (wh";^, in 1983 was renumbered
and is now called Form EIA 759) is used to survey all generating electric
utilities. This form reports the consumption and stocks of coal and
other fuels at each plant; respondents account for 100 percent of total
electric utility generation. FPC Form 423 surveys all fossil-fueled
plants with a total generating capacity of 25 MW or more and reports the
cost and quality (sulfur content) of fuels delivered to a plant.
EPA's Utility FGD Survey supplies current data on operating and
planned domestic utility FGO systems. It summarizes information
contributed by the utility industry, system and equipment suppliers,
system designers, research organizations, and regulatory agencies. The
survey includes data on system design, fuel characteristics, operating
history, and actual system performance.
Emissions were calculated using information on fuels used for
generating electricity (supplied by FPC Form 4) and fuel sulfur content
(supplied by FPC Form 423). For those cases in which fuel quality data
were not provided, State average sulfur content values were used. (The
quantities of fuels for which sulfur contents were not available was
small over tiie entire study period - between 1 and 1.5 percent of coal
use was not accounted for; the comparable figures for oil were slightly
,' i
higher.)
Sulfur dioxide emission calculations were straightforward. For
coal, the quantity of fuel burned was multiplied by twice the sulfur
content (1 ton of sulfur burned will produce approximately 2 tons of
S02). For coal-fired plants, an S02 ash retention value of between
5 and 25 percent was assumed based on coal quality. For bituminous
coals (as defined by heating value), a 5 percent ash retention was used.
Fifteen percent was assumed for subbituminous coal, and 25 percent for
lignite. For oil and gas-fired plants, standard EPA emission factors
and calculation methods were employed.
18
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Emission reductions resulting from S02 scrubbing systems were also
taken into account. For each plant with S02 scrubbing, a total equivalent
net edacity of "S02 free" generation was based on the capacity scrubbed,
date of commercial operation, and S02 removal rate. The total
uncontrolled S02 emissions for the plant were then adjusted to account
for removal of scrubbed S02.
CONCLUSIONS
Table 1 presents estimates produced in the present analysis of
utility S02 emissions during the 1973~1982 period. Table 1 shows that
total U.S. S02 emissions from electric utilities decreased 16 percent
from 1973 to 1982 - from almost 19.3 million tons to 16.2 million tons.
At the same time, the total heating value of the fuels used increased by
10 percent. Coal, oil, and gas used increased by 19 percent from 1973
to 1980, but decreased between 1980 and 1982. The reduction in S02
emissions while fuel use was generally increasing is due both to the use
of lower sulfur coals and to the operation of FGD equipment.
The decrease in emissions occurred during a period with significant.
changes in the mix of fuels and in electric generation. Use of oil as a
fuel for electricity generation has declined dramatically from
560 million barrels in 1973 to 250 million in 1982. The decline from
1978, the year before oil prices doubled, is even more dramatic - 1978
oil usage was nearly 640 million barrels.
Coal use in electricity generation has continued to climb, with an
increase of more than 44 percent in the 1973 to 1982 period. Natural
gas usd decreased during the mid-1970's because of lack of availability,
and increased in the 1979 to 1981 period as supplies became more abundant.
Its use decreased again in 1982 because prices climbed due to decontrol.
These natural gas usage changes had minimal effect on S02 emissions,
however.
Coal-fired units are the dominant source of S02 among utilities.
The percentage of total utility S02 emissions due to coal burning has
remained relatively constant at approximately 90 percent. This has
occurred despite the increase in the quantity of coal burned relative to
other fuels. Reasons for this behavior include the overall decline of
19
-------
sulfur content in coal and the increase in the number of coal-fired
units equipped with FGD systems. The average sulfur content of coal
declined by 36 percent between 1973 and 1982. During thii same period,
the average heating value of coals delivered to utilities declined by
5 percent. Even though the use of lower heating value western coals
increased over this period, the majority of the large overall decrease
in average coal sulfur content is not due to extensive use of western
coals. Close examination of Table 1 shows that almost all of the utility
S02 emissions decrease occurred in the eastern States (all States east
of the Mississippi River plus one tier of States west of the Mississippi
River).
REFERENCES
i. "Quarterly Coal Report, July - September 1983." DOE/EIA-0121
(83/3Q) Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Washington, D.C. (December 1983).
2. "Flue Gas Heculfurization Information System, Data Base User's
Manual." PEDCo Environmental, Inc. Cincinnati, Ohio. (March
1981).
3. "Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Third Edition."
AP-42 (including Supplements 1-14) Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, Environmental Protection Agency. Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina. (1983).
20
-------
1. Utility SO2 Emissions from 1973 to 1982 (1000 Tons per Year)
State
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Ttjxas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
846. B
12.2
19.9
21.9
120.9
47.3
52.2
57.8
20.9
748.3
445.3
29.6
0.0
1,618.6
1,519.5
226.6
56.4
1,350.3
16.2
35.7
204.6
119.6
1,107.8
277.9
78.5
955.0
10.8
47.8
31.1
56.2
122.8
83. J
534.3
440.8
49.6
2,584.8
0.4
0.0
1,624.0
7.7
163.6
3.8
1,139.4
56.2
10.8
1.1
276.6
37.7
972.8
509.0
50.2
815.4
13.1
38.2
21.7
104.3
43.6
58.3
69.2
16.3
725.4
525.5
30.8
0.0
1,598.9
1,378.8
170.3
62.5
1,407.7
17.3
29.2
239.0
118.4
1,064.8
222.0
118.6
95i.7
12.1
22.8
32.2
55.0
165.4
85.8
594.0
449.7
52.7
2,649.0
1.4
0.1
1,442.1
7.2
157.0
3.3
1,107.2
54.5
12.1
0.7
261.5
33.0
1,071.6
497.4
52.1
735
13
52
16
123
59
32
62
7
656
464
26
0
1,423
1,463
186
100
1,360
11
20
191
109
1,011
205
132
1,075
13
23
32
59
107
76
538
373
41
2,710
0
0
1,435
4
139
21
1,030
84
19
0
209
34
1,029
467
59
.9
.0
.4
.7
.3
.2
.3
.0
.0
.4
.1
.0
f\
.6
.8
.3
.6
.5
.9
.1
.7
.6
.6
.6
.6
.6
.2
.7
.7
.3
.5
.2
.1
.9
.5
.4
.3
.0
.9
.1
.6
.4
.3
.8
.8
.3
.1
.8
.7
.8
.0
704.9
12.8
68.5
38.3
151 .7
S7.9
25.2
60.9
7.2
673.2
499.1
40.1
0.0
1,428.8
1,443.1
217.8
121.1
1,512.3
32.9
13.0
218.2
159.6
887.6
230.6
154.1
1,179.4
16.8
27.4
33.6
50.5
113.2
87.1
512.8
410.2
58.7
2,749.8
0.3
0.0
1,432.0
3.0
162.2
33.9
1,228.3
117.3
12.8
0.4
224.9
37.0
1,010.4
469.7
80.9
735.3
12.4
78.3
54.3
156.2
78.5
23.5
59.2
12.6
657.8
581.2
42.7
0.0
1,367.0
1,457.6
23u.O
138.9
1,356.5
58.5
9.9
198.0
160.4
905.1
230.5
198.0
1,201 .9
22.8
31 .4
35.6
59.4
128.4
103.7
548.8
427.2
65.2
2,686.1
3.1
0.3
1,381.1
3.6
194.4
30.2
1,257.6
143.3
32.2
0.4
233.0
53.9
1,001.4
514J7
97.7
530.6
7.7
59.5
58.9
107.6
76.6
26.0
55.6
10.4
5<»5.1
616.2
38.4
0.0
1,292.9
1,351.2
263.7
159.3
1,210.0
63.8
8.7
220.5
258.9
806.9
190.3
208.7
1,013.6
21.8
37.9
38.6
52.3
115.3
81.4
520.0
396.4
71.6
2,462.6
13.0
0.1
1,322.7
3.4
192.9
32.4
1,033.1
179.8
29,9
0.3
223.9
69.8
895.5
471.7
95.7
521.3
12.2
81.4
40.6
108.0
77.4
27.4
61.1
6.7
658.7
666.1
46.1
0.0
1,167.7
1,536.9
230.8
142.3
1,130.0
39.6
10.9
205.2
264.5
741.0
163.6
166.1
1,076.2
22.9
38.8
47.0
78.9
105.1
76.7
508.1
379.5
82.2
2,514.5
19.5
0.9
1,4X5.1
2.8
191.1
27.9
893.1
221.7
30.4
0.4
203.2
79.3
955.9
496.3
111.1
543.1
11.7
87.5
26.6
77.9
77.5
32.1
52.5
4.6
725.9
736.7
41.6
0.0
1,125.6
1,539.6
231.3
150.1
1,007.6
24.8
16.3
223.2
275.5
565.4
177.4
129.2
1,140.5
23.4
49.5
39.5
80.5
110.2
84.6
480.3
435.4
82.5
2,171.6
37.7
3.3
1,466.1
5.2
211.1
28.6
933.7
302.8
22.1
0.5
163.7
69.4
944.2
485.7
120.9
554.9
12.3
111.9
43.7
.50.8
71.6
30.2
69.8
2.6
753.9
843.7
23.6
0.0
1,001.2
1,447.3
193.0
151.1
1,028.8
22.0
13.4
197.2
264.9
598.7
150.3
99.6
1,09\ .2
21.6
43.0
42.4
68.0
103.6
74.7
524.7
444 .8
74.6
2,179.1
56.0
6.8
1,296.8
b.O
231.5
22.1
875.9
312.3
25.3
0.2
140.5
61.7
944.4
397.8
119.9
407.9
11. J
109.2
49.8
20.8
78.6
46.4
57.0
0.8
648.5
787.9
22.9
0.0
1,037.8
1,291 .9
189.2
140.8
935.5
30.5
12.6
203.0
262.2
588.9
128.1
99.4
1,093.8
15.8
36.7
58.8
60.1
96.0
92.4
469.8
409.7
89.9
2,120.9
72.2
3.4
1,261.7
3.1
197.2
31.0
629.0
356.5
24.7
0.4
123.0
49.7
885.7
361 .8
110.9
United States
18,805.1 10,661.7 18,055.2 1 8 , 821 . 4 19 , 070 . 8 17, 591. 2 17,
-------
DEVELOPMENT OF TEMPORAL, SPATIAL, AND
VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND ALLOCATION FACTORS
FOR THE NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY
Frederick M. Sellars
CCA/Technology Division
Bedford, Massachusetts 01730
Contract No. 68-02-39S7
Project Officer: J. David Mobley
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
22
-------
DEVELOPMENT OF TEMPORAL, SPATIAL, AND
VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND ALLOCATION FACTORS
FOR THE NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY
by: Frederick M. Sellars
GCA/Technology Division
Bedford, Massachusetts 01730
ABSTRACT
The Eulerian acid deposition model being developed for use in the
National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) will require more
resolved emission data than are available in the NAPAP emission inventory.
The NAPAP emission inventory, which separately covers annual emissions
from point and countywide area sources, had to be apportioned to reflect
hourly emissions with area source emissions assigned to grid squares.
Hourly emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) then had to be
allocated into photochemical reactivity classes, and nitrogen oxide (NO )
emissions separated into NO and N02. This paper describes the processes,
assumptions, and data sources used in developing the NAPAP temporal,
spatial, and species allocation factors.
23
-------
DEVELOPMENT OF TEMPORAL, SPATIAL, AND
VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND ALLOCATION FACTORS
FOR THE NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY
INTRODUCTION
The most extensive use of the NAPAP emissions inventory will be to
support the Eulerian acid deposition model currently under development.
The NAPAP inventory, compiled using EPA's Emission Inventory System (EIS),
contains annual emissions from point and area sources. Area sources are
compiled on a county total basis, while point source data are compiled
for individual sources. Emission totals in the NAPAP inventory for VOC
and NO actually represent composites of various individual species. To
support the Eulerian model, further temporal, spatial, and pecies
resolution is required.
GCA utilized the Regional Model Data Handling System (RMDHS) to
resolve the NAPAP inventory for use as a Eulerian model input tape.
RMDHS calculated hourly emission totals of NO , S02, SO^, NH3, and VOC,
allocated VOC and NO into photochemical reactivity classes, separated
out major point sources, and assigned minor point sources and area
sources to grid cells. The major inputs that enabled RMDHS to generate
the Eulerian modeler's tape from the NAPAP annual emission inventory
were temporal, spatial, and pollutant species allocation factors, whose
development is described below.
DISCUSSION
Temporal Allocation Factor Development
RMDHS apportioned the NAPAP annual emission totals into hourly
totals for a typical summer weekday by applying the NAPAP temporal
allocation factors, a series of fractional multipliers, to the EIS
emission file. First, a seasonal fraction is applied to determine
24
-------
quarterly emissions for the summer season. Next, a daily fraction is
applied which apportions the seasonal total to a daily total for a
typical weekday:
daily fraction = (13 weeks/season) (number of operating days/week)
Similarly, hourly totals ara calculated by multiplying the daily totals
by one of 24 hourly fractions representing an entire diurnal pattern.
For example, if all of a plant's emissions occur during an 8 a.m. to
5 p.m. workday, the hourly fraction for each of thesa hours would be:
hourly fraction = 7; . . , 7-3— = 0.111
J 9 operating hours/day
The hourly fraction for the 15 hours of nonoperation would, of course,
be zero.
RMDHS can generate default temporal factors based on operating
rates contained in EIS point source records or uniform emission
distributions for area sources if no patterns are supplied. Therefore,
primary emphasis was placed on developing temporal factors for the
54 NAPAP area source categories. Since the temporal distribution of
emissions most often directly reflects the temporal patterns of the
activities that cause the emissions, related categories were grouped
together.
GCA developed temporal factors based on literature and data sources
published by.the U.S. Department of Energy, Department of Transportation,
Civil Aeronautics Board, National Weather Service, and Bureau of the
Census. Also examined were previousy compiled regional-scale inventories
such as the Northeast Corridor Regional Modeling Project (NECRMP). the
Regional Air Pollution Study (RAPS), and the Sulfate Regional
Experiment (SURE), and inventories developed by several States in support
of their State implementation plans (SIP's).
Since the NAPAP study area spans four time zones, temporal factors
were standardized to reflect Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). This was
accomplished by creating four separate, time-zone-specific temporal
factor files, each with local time adjusted to reflect GMT, and processing
the EIS data accordingly. Thus, hourly emissions in the Eulerian model
input tape reflect GMT.
25
-------
Spatial Allocation Factor Development
Spatial allocation factors were developed to apportion NAPAP area
source emissions from counties to individual grid cells. The NAPAP grid
system is comprised of 37,440 grid cells (156 rows, 240 columns^
approximately 20 x 20 km, extending from 65° to 125° west longitude and
from 25° to 51° north latitude.
Each spatial allocation factor assigns a portion of a particular
county's area source emissions to a specific grid cell. Generally,
since the actual subcounty distribution of area source emissions is
unknown, emissions are assumed to be distributed according to the known
distribution of some surrogate indicator (e.g., population).
The objective in NAPAP was to develop as many surrogate values as
possible for each county to allow maximum flexibility in assigning
county level area source emissions to specific grid cells. The surrogate
indicators used in NAPAP include housing and population counts, total
land area, and 10 land use classifications. Once the distribution of
the surrogate indicators was known, county level area source emissions
were spatially distributed by matching area source emission categories
to the most appropriate surrogate indicators.
Housing and population surrogates were derived from the 1980 Census
by assigning housing units and population counts to grid cells based on
the latitude and longitude of the centroid of each enumeration district.
Land use surrogates were derived using Landsat land use percentages for
each grid cell and grid/county relationships in the following algorithm:
(AC.)(A .)
SPAFCT, -
where:
SPAFCTpj.- = the spatial allocation factor for county C, land use
type S, and grid i;
A-. = the portion of county C that falls within grid i;
AC- = the portion of grid i with land use type S; and
n = the total number of grids covering county C.
26
-------
The final step in defining spatial allocation factors was development
of the surrogate factor selection file, which assigns each of the 54 NAPAP
area source categories to the most appropriate surrogate indicator.
Species Allocation Factor Development
The NAPAP emission inventory includes annual emission rates for NO^
and VOC. The Eulerian acid deposition model requires disaggregation of
VOC emissions into photochemical reactivity classes and separation of
NO into NO and N02. There are numerous possible VOC speciation schemes
based on different modeling chemistries. To provide the flexibility of
developing and testing a number of reactivity schemes in NAPAP, it was
decided to provide a general species listing for NAPAP point and area
source classes, which in turn could be adapted to fit any particular
modeling requirements. This objective was achieved by coding a set of
"species profiles," each of which provides a typical list of VOC's for a
given process. Each specie is defined by its SAROAD code, molecular
weight, and weight percent of total VOC emissions.
A separate SCC Index File was created to link the emission inventory
emissions classes (referenced by SCC) to the most appropriate species
profiles. Finally, a photochemical class assignment file assigns each
VOC specie (referenced by SAROAD code) to the appropriate reactivity
class. This approach was taken to provide flexibility in establishing
SCC-profile-reactive class relationships.
27
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STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT
J.B. Homolya
Radian Corporation
P.O. Box 13000, Progress Center
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
Contract No. 68-02-3174
Project Officer: J. David Mob ley
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Irventory Symposium
Raleigh, NC
December 3-4, 1984
28
-------
STATIONARY SOIRCE EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT
by: J.B. Hanoiya
Rad Ian Corporation
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
ABSTRACT
The Eulerlan atmospheric model under development for acid
deposition analyses requires emission data bases of certain chemical
species which &ct as direct acidic emissions to the atmosphere,
scavengers of primary or secondary acids In the atmosphere, or catalysts
In atmospheric transformation processes. Most of the chemical compounds
or classes of compounds needed for Input Into the model chemical
transformation/deposition modules are non-criteria pollutants. Limited
Information is available concerning emission factors for most species.
This paper presents a discussion of the NAPAP Task Group B emission
factor development project to assess and develop emission factors for
ammonia, primary sulfate, alkaline dust, and specific organic compounds.
29
-------
STATIONARY SOURCE EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT
INTRODUCTION
The National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) was
established by Congress In 1980 to coordinate and expand research on
problems posed by acid deposition In and around the United States. The
Interagency Task Force on Acid Precipitation manages the program by
coordinating the activities of 10 task groups having the specific
technical responsibilities. Task Group B (Man-Made Sources) Is charged
with providing a complete and accurate United States and Canadian
Inventory of emissions from man-made sources thought to be important In
acId-deposIt Ion processes. Two distinct types of Inventory development
programs are required to address the research and assessment needs
within NAPAP:
• Detahed, mult [component point and area source disaggregated
inventories for defined annual base years to support the
development and testing of atmospheric transport and
transformation models +o predict acid deposition; and
• Retrospective Inventory summaries of acidic and acid-precursor
emissions over the past 80 years to support historical analyses
of material damage and to aid In developing policy assessments.
DISCUSSION
The Eulerlan atmospheric model under development for acid
deposition analyses requires emission data bases of certain chemical
species which act as direct acidic emissions to the atmosphere,
scavangers of primary or secondary acids In tha atmosphere, or catalysts
In atmospheric transformation processes. The preliminary 1980 NAPAP
emission Inventory for Eulerlan model use contains point and area source
emissions for:
1. sulfur dioxide (S02),
2. primary sulfate (S0.=),
30
-------
3. nitric oxide (NO),
4. nitrogen dioxide (NCL),
5. ammonia (NH,), and
6. volatile organic compounds (VOC) di-aggregated according to 10
photocliomlcal reactivity classes.
With the exception of S0~, the remaining species within the inventory
are either non-criteria pollutants or criteria pdlutants whIch have
been further disaggregated. For example, the oxides of nitrogen. (NO^)
and VOC speclation factors were developeo under the Northeast Corridor
Regional Modeling Program (NECRMP). Each VOC Is defined by Its SAROAD
code, molecular weight, and weight percent of total emissions. These
profiles are Independent of any reactivity scheme, and may be manipulated
by the modeler into any reactivity classification. The NO and N0_
allocation factors were also contained within NECRMP at tne point and
area source classification code (SCO level and were subsequently
Incorporated into the preliminary 1980 Inventory.
An assessment was prepared to review available SO = emissions data.
Adequate data exist for coal- and oil-fired utility sources operating
without flue gas scrubbers. Emission factors for these sources were
calculated and incorporated Into the NAPAP Inventory. United data were
available for other fossll-fuei-fIred combustion sources, and qualitative
emission factors were formulated. Many remaining SCCs lacked any
measurement data and only "best estimates" of SO = emission factors
could be provided.
A similar assessment study was prepared for NH, emissions. Major
sources of NH^ Include I ivestock wastes, coal combustion, ammonium
nitrate manufacture, anhydrous ammonia fertilizer application, petroleum
refineries, urea manufacture, coke manufacture, and ammonium phosphate
manufacture. Emission factors were calculated based upon available
data.
31
-------
The final 1980 NAPAP emission Inventory will contain 23 chemical
species or components:
1. Sulfur dioxide 13. Aromatlcs
2. Primary sulfate 14. Aldehydes
3. Nitric oxide 15. Formaldehyde
4. Nitrogen dioxide 16. Organic acids
5. Amrnonia 17. Formic acid
6. Carbon monoxide 18. Propane
7. Total VOC 19. Butane
8. Methane 20. Benzene
9. Alkanes 21. Acetic acid
10. Alkenes 22. Alkaline dust
11. Propylene 23. Total partlculates
12. Ethylene
Specific organic compounds or classes of compounds have been requested
by the National Center of Atmospheric Research (MCAR), who has the
responsibility for development and Integration of specific chemical
modules within tl>e Eulerian model development program. Therefore, the
emission factor development and formulation activities over tfie next
2 years will focus on the organic compound and alkaline dust emission
factor development as the highest priority needs. Assessments of
available data Mill be prepared with recommendation for the condi-ct of
emission factor testing where necessary to develop data for important
SCCs lacking Information. In addition, an analysis of existing
continuous emission monitoring (CEM) data for SO and NO will be
3 2 x
conducted to verify the representativeness of NAPAP emission factors for
major utility and Industrial point sources.
32
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SESSION 2: MAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY ACTIVITIES (continued)
Chairman: John Bosch, Chief
National Air Data Branch
U.S. En> Tonmental Protection Agency (F.D-14)
Office of Air Duality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
33
-------
USERS' GUIDELINES FOR ACCESS OF THE
1980 NAPAP EMISSIONS INVENTORY
Charles 0. Mann
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Monitoring and Data Analysis Division
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
34
-------
USERS' GUIDELINES FOR ACCESS OF THE
1980 NAPAP EMISSIONS INVENTORY
INTRODUCTION
An interim 1980 NAPAP emissions inventory data base is stored in
the Emissions Inventory System (EIS) formats for point and area sources
on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) IBM computer at Research
Triangle Park, NC. The NAPAP data were developed starting with
information from the EPA's National Emissions Data System (NEDS). These
data have been improved by incorporating the latest available emission
factors, substitution of data from the Northeast Corridor Regional
Modeling Project and other more representative of 1980 NEDS data,
cross-checking the electric utility data with the U.S. Department of
Energy (DOE) data compiled by E.H. Pechan and Associates, cross-checking
data with information from the U.S./Canada Work Group 3B report, and
adding county centroid latitude and longitude for sources with missing
or incorrect Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates. The
current data are preliminary and not suitable for defining 1980 emissions.
Any use of the data should note the preliminary nature of the information.
Revisions and additions to the data will be made based on information to
be received from some States, and other changes will result from ongoing
NAPAP data improvement activities.
Currently, NAPAP reports annual emissions of S02, NO , VOC,
participates, CO, primary sulfates, and ammonia. Additional pollutants
are to be added in the future per NAPAP FY '85 and FY '86 program plans.
Since NAPAP emission inventory development activities began in
1983, a number of standard versions of the inventory has been made
available to users. A summary status report, covering the data in
standard version 3.0 (data in NAPAP as of May 1984), has been produced
and distributed. In the future, updated standard versions of the NAPAP
inventory will be made available to users.
35
-------
To obtain NAPAP data, requestors may address their requests to:
Mr. Charles 0. Mann
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (MD-14)
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
(Phone 919/541-5694, FTS 629-5694)
NAPAP data can be provided either as computer files on magnetic tape
(standard EIS/PS and EIS/AS master file formats) or in a number of
standard hardcopy formats. Normally, magnetic tape files will be provided
as 9-track, EBCDIC characters, nonlabeled, 6250 bpi density unless the
requestor specifies otherwise. The magnetic tapes contain data for
individual point and area source records in standard EIS format. The
entire file may be provided or only selected records retrieved by the
standard EIS retrieval language. Requestors who want to obtain data on
magnetic tape should forward their own tapes on which to write the
selected data.
There are a number of standard format hardcopy reports that can
also be provided. These reports may be created using the EIS retrieval
language as well. A partial list of the report formats that are available
is:
• EIS/PS detailed masterfile listing,
• EIS/PS condensed masterfile listing,.
• EIS/PS emission summary by geographic area,
• EIS/PS emission summary by SCC,
• EIS/PS rank-ordered listing of emissions by plant/point,
• EIS/AS detailed masterfile listing, and
• EIS quick look report (one line listing of user-specified data
items; available for both point and area source data).
(Examples of these report formats will be presented.)
Requests for NAPAP data that can be satisfied by any of these
standard reports will be processed by the OAQPS National Air D^ta Branch
as expeditiously as possible. Computer accounts have been established
to cover the cost of computer resources, so there will not be any charge
to the data requestor. Requests that cannot be satisfied by a standard
format reporv may instead be completed by providing a magnetic tape file
36
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to the requestor who will be responsible for development of his own
software to process the data. Alternatively, requests from within the
NAPAP user community that require development of special software or job
control language to complete will be considered on a case-by-case basis.
All such requests must be approved by the NAPAP emission inventory
project manager (David Mobley, IERL-RTP) who will decide whether Task
Group B contract resources can be committed to completion of such
nonstandard data requests.
Since some of the data in the NAPAP point source file originated at
State agencies who submitted the data to NEDS, the EPA is obligated to
honor claims of confidentiality for these data indicated by the States.
Data items that may be claimed as confidential include annual operating
rate, maximum design rate, boiler capacity, emission estimation method
code, and percent space heat. These data will be blanked out on reports
or files that are provided to requestors who are not authorized to
receive confidential data. Only Federal employees and contractors
performing work for the Federal government are authorized to receive
confidential data. These personnel must submit in writing a statement
that they will use the data only for government-related work and will
not release the data to anyone else.
In the future, NAPAP retrieval and reporting capabilities may be
expanded to include more standard report formats and computer graphics
capabilities. Availability of these new capabilities is dependent upon
the level of resources that will be available in FY '85 and FY '36.
37
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HISTORIC EMISSIONS OF S02 AND N0x SINCE 1900
G. Gschwandtner
PES, Incorporated
Contract No. 68-02-3511
Project Officer: J. David Mobley
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
38
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HISTORIC EMISSIONS OF S02 AND N0x SINCE 1900
by: G. Gschwandtner
PES, Incorporated
ABSTRACT
Historic emissions of sulfur dioxide (S02) and nitrogen oxides (N0x)
were estimated for Task Group B, Man-made Sources, of the National Acid
Precipitation Assessment Program for each State of the conterminous
United States. Historic emissions were estimated by individual source
category on the State level from 1900 to 1980 for every fifth year and
for 1978. The source categories included power plants, industrial
boilers, industrial processes, commercial and residential heaters,
natural gas pipelines, highway vehicles, off-highway dies.el engines, and
all other anthropogenic sources. These emissions were calculated from
salient statistics indicative of fuel consumption or industrial output,1
estimations of average statev/ide fuel properties, and estimations of
emission factors specific to each source category over time. The emission
estimates were then aggregated to show the estimated emission trends by
state, region, and all States combined.
This paper summarizes the estimated historic emission trends on a
state, regional, and national scale. The trends are presented by source
category and by major fuel type. The emission estimates allow temporal
and regional trend comparisons between S02 and NO emissions and chemical
and biological effect trends being derived in other studies. They
provide a basis for assessing pollutant damage, for studying trends in
stream chemistry and deposition monitoring data, and for evaluating
proposed mitigation and control strategies.
39
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HISTORIC EMISSIONS OF S02 AND NO SINCE 1900
INTRODUCTION
Sulfur dioxide (S02) and nitrogen oxides (NO ) are considered
primary precursors of acidic precipitation. The anthropogenic emissions
of these pollutants are suspected causes of many biological and chemical
effects observed in recent years. Understanding th^ historic emission
trends is important to understanding the development of acid-precipitation-
related problems and causes of observed environmental effects.
Annual quantities of emissions of S02 and NO are presented for
each of the conterminous 48 states, including the District of Columbia.
Emissions of each pollutant were estimated by source category for every
fifth year from 1900 to 1980 and for 1978. Total state emissions were
interpolated for the other years based on national consumption levels of
fuels. Five-year intervals from 1900 to 1980 were selected to provide
an indication of the emission trends sufficient for most effects studies
and to develop a methodology that could be applied to all other years.
The state level was selected because it provides the most complete and
consistent body of information on an historic basis and collectively
covers all geographic regions of the country.
DISCUSSION
Average emission rates for each study year were estimated for
individual source categories for each state. The source categories are
listed in Figure 1 according to the type of fuel consumed. These
categories represent all types of boilers, furnaces, engines, processes,
and other man-mada emission sources. The basic steps involved in
calculating state emissions are:
40
-------
I.
Figure 1. Overall trend in S02 emissions from 1900 to 1980 for
the United States by year and by fuel type.
41
-------
1. obtain state level information on fuel use;
2. allocate fuel quantity used by each source category;
3. develop source category emission factors;
4. determine fuel sulfur content by state for each category; and
5. calculate emissions, after emission controls.
The actual procedure varied somewhat depending on th? usefulness
and availability of information. It can generally be described in more
detail for two time periods: 1) 1950 to 1980, and 2) 1900 to 1945.
For each source category, the annual fuel consumption (FC) was
multiplied by a representative emission factor (EF) for each pollutant.
For S02 , the emission factor was scaled by the average statewide sulfur
content values (S) of the particular fuel. The calculation procedure
can generally be expressed as:
S02 Emission = FC. . . x Ef,n x S. . .
1 > J t * iu2 ' > J >
(1)
N0x Emission = FC.>j>kx EF^ (2)
where:
i = study year,
j = source category, and
k = state.
While these equations generally describe the approach, variations
occurred depending on the nature of the source category and available
information. For a complete discussion of the specific methodology for
each source category, the EPA Project Officer may be contacted for
additional descriptions which may ue available. This presentation
focuses primarily on the results obtained to-date.
Figures 1 through 4 show the estimated trend in emissions of each
pollutant from 1900 to 1980. The estimated trend is shown on the national
level (the result of aggregating all state emission estimates), on the
regional level, and on the state level for selected states. Total
estimated emissions are further divided according to major source and
42
-------
no.
\
tfftl
nousim
UKIIIC 31II11 ItS
Figure 2. Overall trend in S02 emissions from 190U to 1980 for
the United States by year and by source category.
43
-------
on-
Figure 3. 0-erall trend in NO emissions from 1900 to 1980 for
the United States by year and by fuel type.
44
-------
no.
01*1
flflllKS
;S uousrm
tuuiic ma 1 1 us
I.
Figure 4. Overall trend in NO emissions from 1900 to 1980 for
tt-e United States b$ year and by source category.
45
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fuel categories to show the role of historic emitter groups, the effect
of fuel switching, the effect of technological changes, and (recently)
the effect of fuel mixing and S02 controls.
CONCLUSIONS
The historic emission estimates presented are consistent in the
estimating methodology used. They provide a basis for studying the
relationship between emissions in the past and observed environmental
effects including tree-ring growth patterns, material damage, and acidic
deposition. The emission quantities shown in this presentation should
be considered the best available estimates at this time, but it should
be remembered that, as work in this area continues, more refined estimates
may be made.
The historic emission estimates show a definite trend in terns of
the total nation. State emission trends vary significantly depending on
the state's location and geographic size, population, industries, and
other factors. NO emissions appear to have been increasing almost
steadily in all states, while S02 emissions appear to have decreased,
most recently since around 1970.
46
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DEVELOPMENT. OF A MONTHLY HISTORICAL
EMISSIONS INVENTORY
Duane Knudson.
Energy and Environmenta.l Systems Division
Argunne National Laboratory
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
47
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DEVELOPMENT OF A MONTHLY HISTORICAL
EMISSIONS INVENTORY
by: Duane Knudson
Energy and Environmental Systems Division
Argonne National Laboratory
ABSTRACT
As atmospheric transport and deposition modeling capabilities
increase and monitoring data are accumulated, it becomes desirable to
also refine emissions inventories. One such refinement is the application
of monthly fuel use and industrial production data to define the
intra-annual variability of emissions. This is the general approach
being taken to portion the 1980 NAPAP S02 emissions to monthly values.
Tne data bases for disaggregating annual emissions are Energy
Information Administration. Form 759 (formerly Form 4) for electric
utilities; the Quarterly Coal Report for coal use by industrial and
commercial/institutional sources; Federal Reserve Board (FRB) monthly
industrial production indices for industrial processes; industry-specific
fuel use and FRB monthly production indices for oil and gas use by
industrial boilers; and heating degree-day accumulation for space heating
for all fuels. Monthly S02 inventories are being prepared for utility
and nonutility sectors for the period 1975 to 1983. This paper presents
1980 monthly S02 emissions for New York and West Virginia for the subject
sectors.
48
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DEVELOPMENT OF A MONTHLY HISTORICAL
EMISSIONS INVENTORY
INTRODUCTION
Atmospheric deposition patterns are largely determined by
meteorological conditions and precursor emissions. The variability of
meteorological conditions controlling acidic deposition has been
recognized, with the consequence that several years of meteorological
data are Leing readied for model analysis. To complement these data,
monthly emissions inventories of S02 and NO for the period 1975 through
1983 are being prepared. These inventories are designed to reflect
actual intra-annual and yearly emissions variability, and when used with
the actual meteorological data in model simulations will eliminate some
unnecessary assumptions.
The methodology used to portion the annual values is the focus of
this paper. Review of the method will deal first with S02 emissions
from electric utilities, next with application of 3. number of data bases
to portioning annual S02 emissions from industrial (process and
combustion) institutional/commercial and residential source categories,
and finally for computation of monthly NO emissions (yet to be
undertaken). State total monthly S02 emissions will be presented for
New York and West Virginia, a^ 3xamples of the type of results obtained.
DISCUSSION
The 1980 NAPAP emission inventory (Version 3) was used as a starting
point to define State total S02 emissions by 6-digit SCC class. The
following paragraphs present methodology and pertinent data bases for
computing monthly S02 emissions for thr utility sector and specific SCC
classes. Data bases used for portioning annual nonutility S02 emissions,
discussed in the succeeding paragraphs, are listed in Table 1 for
respective SCC's.
49
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Table 1 Data Sourc«a for Estimation of Nomitiltty Monthly SO2
Emission Fractions for NAPAP Source Categories
en
o
SCO Code
Description
Data Source or Approach for Estimating Monthly Fractions
POINT SOURCES
102001
102002
102003
102004
102005
102006
102007
102008
103001
103002
103003
103004
103005
103006
103007
103008
105001
105002
202001
203001
Industrial
External
Combustion
Boilers
Commercial/
Institutional
External
Combustion
Boilers
Ext. Combust*
Ext. Combust.
Int. Combust.
Int. Combust.
Anthracite
Bituminous
Lignite
Resid. Oil
Dist. Oil
Nat. Gas
Process Gas
Coke
Anthracite
Bituminous
Lignite
Resid. Oil
Dist. Oil
Nat. Gas
Process Gas
Coke
Space Htr - Industrial
Space Htr - Com/Inst.
Dist. Oil - Industrial
Dist. Oil - Com/Inst.
Quarterly Coal Report
Quarterly Coal Report
Quarterly Coal Report
Adjusted FRB monthly
Adjusted FRB monthly
Adjusted FRB monthly
Adjusted FRB monthly
Adjusted FRB monthly
Quarterly Coal Report
Quarterly Coal Report
Quarterly Coal Report
Unresolved
Unresolved
Unresolved
Unresolved
Unresolved
Local Cllmatologlcal
Local Cllmatologlcal
Unresolved
Unresolved
- 1981
- 1981
- 1981
production Indices
production Indices
production Indices
production Indices
production Indices
- 1931
- 1981
- 1981
Data - Heating Degree Day Accumulation
Data - Heating Degree Day Accumulation
301 Industrial chemicals: sulfurlc
acid, plastics, organic chemicals,
explosives, carbon black,
printing Ink
302 Food product processing
FRB monthly production Indices for SIC 2819:
chemicals
FRB monthly production Indices for SIC 209:
preparat ton
inorganic
miscellaneous food
-------
Table 1 Continued
SCC Code
Description
Data Source or Approach for Estimating Monthly Fractions
303 Primary Metal: Coke manufacturing,
ateel production, copper smelters,
zinc, and other primary metals
304 Secondary smelting: aluminum,
copper, lead, etc.
305 Mineral Products: glass, fiber-
glass, gypsum products, cement,
brick, pottery
390 In-Process fuel use
306 Petroleum refining
307 Wood and paper products (Including
Kraft pulping)
310 Crude oil and natural gas extraction
(i eluding gas sweetening)
AREA SOURCES
90100101
102
103
104
105
106
Residential
Combustion
Anthracite coal
Bituminous coal
Distillate oil
Residual oil
Natural gas
Wood
FRB monthly production Indices for SIC 331; haste steel, coking,
and milt production
FRB monthly production indices for SIC 333-6, 9; nonferrouo
metalcj
FRB monthly production indices for SIC 102-5, 108, 109; non-
ferrous ores: 326-9; concrete and miscellaneous clay: 3151;
brick: 324; cement
Same as SCC 305
FRB monthly production indices for SIC 291-9; petroleum refining
FRB monthly production indices for SIC 261-263; pulp and paper
FRB monthly production indices for SIC 131; crude oil and
natural gas extraction
Same as
Same as
Same as
Same as
Same as
Same as
SCC 105002
SCC 105002
SCC 105002
SCC 105002
SCC 105002
SCC 105002
-------
Table 1 Continued
en
ro
SCC Code
90100207
208
209
210
211
90100313
314
315
316
317
318
320
90200121
90200122
90200123
Description
Commercial/ Anthracite coal
Institutional Bitumi.ious coal
Combustion Distillate oil
Residual oil
Natural gas
Industrial Anthracite coal
Bituminous coal
Coke
Distillate oil
Residual oil
Natural gas
Process gas
Residential Incineration
Industrial Incineration
Commercial/ Institutional
Data Source or Approach for Estimating Monthly Fractions
Same as SCC 103001
Same as SCC 103002
Same as SCC 103005
Same as SCC 103004
Same as SCC 103006
Same as SCC 102001
Same ao SCC 102002
Same as SCC 102008
Same as SCC 102005
Same as SCC 102004
Same as SCC 102006
Same as SCC 102007
Divide annual values by 12.
Divide annual values by 12.
Divide annual values by 12.
Incineration
903
Transportation-related
Unresolved
-------
For the utility sector, annual emissions were those developed by
E. H. Pechan and Associates for the years 1975 through 1982, with 1983
utility emissions computed by Argonne using Pechan's approach.
Portioning annual emissions to monthly values relied on fuel consumption
data presented in EIA Form 759. Form 759 provides information on the
quantity of fuel consumed. Fuel quality information is available only
for fuel delivered (from Form 423). This discrepancy necessitates the
assumption that the quality of fuel consumed in a given month is
approximated by the annual average quality of that type of fuel. The
implication of this assumption on monthly emissions estimates is being
investigated.
Annugl coal combustion emissions from industrial and
commercial/institutional boilers (SCC classes 102001-102003 and
103001-103003) were adjusted using quarterly coal consumption data from
o
1981. The 1981 data are the first year of available data for coal
consumption. Monthly fractions were derived from the quarterly data by
dividing by three.
Annual emissions from oil, natural gas, process gas, and coke
combustion in industrial boilers (SCC's 102004-102008) were apportioned
to monthly values using fractions based on State-specific annual
industrial fuel consumption and monthly industrial production data.
Since the NAPAP inventory does not differentiate fuel combustion in
industrial boilers by industry, State fuel use by 2-digit SIC industrial
classification was used to determine weighting factors for use with the
monthly Federal Reserve Board (FRB) production indices. Annual industrial
fuel consumption, for use in weighting the monthly production indices,
was for SIC classes 20, 26, 28, 29, 32, and 33. State-level industrial
fuel use statistics are compiled by the Commerce Department and reported
in the Annual Survey of Manufactures Fuels and Electric Energy Consumed.3
The weighting factors adjust the monthly production fractions for the
identified SIC classes by the relative amount of fuel consumed and
specific industrial class in each State. The monthly FRB production
indices are compiled by the Commerce Department based on output of
specific industrial classes.
53
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The computation of monthly emissions for space heating in industrial
and commercial/institutional sectors follows the NEDS/NAPAP methodology.
That methodology holds 25 percent of the annual State S02 emissions
constant and apportions the other 75 percent on a seasonal basis using
heating degree day accumulation. A difference in this methodology was
to apportion to monthly values. A representative station for heating
degree day accumulation was selected for each region.
State total annual S02 emissions for industrial processes (SCC's 301,
302, 3C3, 304, 305, 306, 307, 310, and 390) were apportioned to monthly
values through use of appropriate national average monthly FRB production
indices.
Relevant data on which to base a derivation of monthly emissions
for commercial/institutional boilers burning oil, gas, and coke
(SCC 103004-103008) and internal combustion for industrial and
commercial/institutional sectors (SCC's 202001 and 203001) have not been
found. Two options being considered for commercial/institutional boilers
are to use the coal-derived monthly fractions for the entire category or
simply to divide the oil, gas, and coke-related emissions by twelve.
Tentative plans for treating internal combustion of distillate oil in
the industrial and commercial/institutional sectors are to divide the
annual emissions by twelve to get monthly values.
Computation of monthly emissions for area sources of residential,
commercial/institutional, and industrial fuel combustion follows the
methodology taken for corresponding point source categories. Annual
emissions from residential, commercial/institutional, and industrial
incineration were disaggregated to monthly values by dividing the annual
estimates by twelve.
Two major assumptions must be made to allow the use of 1980-specific
monthly fractions for computations of monthly emissions for the other
years in the analysis. First, it must be assumed that relative monthly
activity in the specific categories is constant throughout the period of
interest (1975-1983). The second assumption is that relative industrial
activity amor^ the States remains constant for the same period. Given
these assumptions, the procedure for computing monthly emissions for the
subject SCC classes for the non-1980 years uses the national totals
presented in th report "National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates,
54
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1974-1982"5 to adjust the 1980 SCC-specific emissions for each year.
Relative changes to national emissions for each SCC are applied equally
to each State to compute year-specific State total S02 emissions. The
monthly apportioning then proceeds according to the process used for 1980.
The use of the same monthly fractions for all years in the analysis
means that such influences on emissions as industry-wide strikes are not
reflected in the monthly emissions data. Conversely, any anomalies
specific to 1980 are propagated through the entire period. This is not
strictly acceptable, but is a reasonable preliminary approximation
considering budgetary and schedule constraints. It is planned to
reevaluate this assumption later, and, if appropriate data are available>
compute year-specific monthly fractions for years other than 1980.
Results of application of the monthly portioning are presented in
Table 2 for New York and West Virginia. Monthly emissions estimates for
individual source classification codes have been consolidated into
source category totals. As previoulsy mentioned, satisfactory information
for portioning of annual S02 emissions from commercial and institutional
fuel combustion has not been discovered. Annual emissions for this
source category are thus assumed to be uniformly distributed throughout
the year. The other source category presenting some problems is the
potpourri of area sources. In some States, emissions from transportation-
related activities can contribute substantially to total area source
emissions. To date, however, project efforts have focused on stationary
sources, necessitating an assumption of uniformly distributed transpor-
tation S02 emissions.
The monthly variability of utility emissions is the major controlling
influence on monthly S02 emissions for New York and West Virginia, which
is the situation for most Eastern U.S. States. The combined contribution
of nonutility sectors in New York has the potential to significantly
influence monthly emissions. However, the monthly variability of SOo
emissions from these categories is small. This suggests, although it
does not prove, that simplifying assumptions for nonutility source
categories may be acceptable. Work continues on these questions.
55
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Table 2 Preliminary Estimates of 1980 Monthly SO2 Emissions
For Nev York And West Virginia (Short tons)
New York
Jan
Feb
Mar
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Total
Utility
49050 40800 43180 41550 34550 38430 41550 43660 36360 34520
Industrial Fuel Combustion 16247 16493 16704 16470 16080 16050 15030 15646 16201 16005
Commercial/institutional
Fuel Combustion 5963 5963 5963 5963 5963 5963 5963 5963 5963 5963
Industrial Processes 2757 2736 2774 2678 25>7 2422 2315 2409 2471 2599
Area Sources 5939 5939 5668 5126 4584 4381 4313 4381 4584 4855
34500 45360 483520
15904 15356 192186
5963 5963 71556
2674 264A 30996
5397 5939 61106
Total
West Virginia
Utility
J Industrial Fuel Combustion
Commercial/Institutional
Fuel Combustion
Industrial. Processes
Area Sources
79956 71931 74289 71787 63694 67246 69171 72059 65579 63942 64438 75262 838364
80170 65420 73230 67120 62420 68440
8457 8478 8514 6904 6798 6758
70
4773
1542
70
4913
1411
70
5211
1367
70
5055
1015
70
4522
817
70
4174
729
88620 88890 79030 80820
6907 6938 6986 7040
70
3705
707
70
3115
707
70
4090
773
70
4432
102'4
84580 100070
7091 7071
938820
87942
70 70 840
4804 4794 5358J
1235 1520 12852
Total
95012 80292 883<*2 80164 74627 80171 100009 99720 90949 93386 97780 113525 1094042
-------
CONCLUSIONS
Several data bases were accessed to provide information for
portioning State total annual S02 emissions to monthly values. The data
can generally be characterized as fuel use and activity indicators.
REFERENCES
1. Pechan, E. H. and J. H. Wilson, Jr. "Estimates of 1973-1982 Annual
Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Electric Utilities.," JAPCA Vol. 34,
No. 10, pp. 1075-1078. (October 1984).
2. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,
Office of Coal, Nuclear Electric, and Alternate Fuels. Quarterly
Coal Report. DOE/EIA-0/21 (82/1Q), (82/2Q), (82/3Q), (82/4Q).
3. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1980 Annual
Survey of Manufactures Fuels and Electric Energy Consumed.
M80(AS)-4.2. (Issued October 1982).
4. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of
Research and Statistics. "Industrial Production Indexes, 1980."
(September 1981).
5. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards. "National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates 1940-1982."
EPA-450/4-83-024. (February 1984).
57
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QUALITY ASSURANCE OF THE
NAPAP MAN-MADE EMISSIONS DATA BASE
E. C. Trexler, PE
Man-Made Sources Task Group (TG-B)
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Planning and Environment
Office of Fossil Energy
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
58
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QUALITY ASSURANCE OF THE
NAPAP MAN-MADE EMISSIONS DATA BASE
INTRODUCTION
The pursuit of quality in the creation of man-made emissions data
bases brings with it the need for unique approaches. While these
approaches are applied within the. principals of traditional quality
assurance practices, it must be recognized up front that we must pursue
our objectives without the benefit of significant absolute standards
against which we can measure the quality of our product. The generation
of our product, as previously discussed, is primarily a matter of building
from a framework of test data a highly disaggregated data base through
the application of estimates and assumptions. It follows then that
quality must be pursued as a constructive direction and not as a quanti-
tative objective. The direction we have chosen provides the framework
for iterative improvement through visibility and review. Coupled with
this is a program of accuracy assessment. By making our assumptions and
results visible, we are trying to encourage constructive feedback which
will lead to a more accurate product. By pursuing a program of accuracy
assessment, we will be providing the cons'jmers of our data our best
assessment of its true accuracy at the time.
DISCUSSION
Review/Reconciliation
Our review program can perhaps be best understood by making reference
to Figure 1. This figure is a simplification of the review/reconciliation
procedure put in place last December for the review of Task Group B
emissions data bases prior to their release for use. A similar procedure
was also established for the Task Group B Model Set/Data Base. It is
significant to note that these procedures are end product review
procedures and are applied in addition to the normal quality control
practices followed in the development of the data.
59
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KICURE I
REVIEW/RECONCILIATION FLOW D1ACRAM
EMISSIONS INVENTORY
VALIDATION BODY
-------
Referring now to Figure 1, it can be seen that the major participants
in the procedure are the Data Base Manager, the internal Review Panel,
the External Reviewers, a Validation Body (if needed), and the Task
Group B Chairman. The major products are the Data Base being reviewed,
and a Data Compendium. The Internal Review Panel members are generally
persons who have not been involved directly in the creation of the
product under review.
Procedural action begins with the Data Base Manager who, when he
believes his data base is ready for release, assembles a Data Compendium
succinctly describing the content, important rationale and summarized
output from the data base and arranges for access to the Data Base
computer tapes. This data is then received by the Internal Review Panel
where it undergoes reviews and perhaps some modification.
The next step in the procedure takes place when the panel decides
the data base is ready for external review. Copies of the Data Compendium,
and information on access to the Data Base tape, are sent out to all
known interested parties with an invitation to review and comment.
Comments received by the panel and discussions are made with regard
to changes or future reviews. The panel might r.hoose to involve a
Validation Body in further re"iew. When satistied with the reviews, the
panel forwards its recommendations to the Task Group B Chairman with
regard to release of the data base along with its rationale.
Final release is made by the Task Group B Chairman.
Accuracy Assessment
Our accuracy assessment program should be recognized as a modest
step forward in estimating the accuracy of our end product, but obviously
limited in terms of real emissions data against which to measure true
accuracy. Our objectivs is to provide an uncertainty or precision value
to coincide with each emission value coming from the emissions data
base. This will be achieved oy the construction and interconnection of
an Uncertainty Data Base such that the call for a report of an emissions
vs^.'e engages the Uncertainty Data Base in which resides predetermined
values of uncertainty based on the resolution, source type and emissions
species being reported. The construction of the Uncertainty Data Basa
will be accomplished through the use of "Expert Teams" who will judge
61
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the precision with which we know such things as operating habits, fuel
quality, feed qualities and the emitting community as well as the normal
assessments of activity level, emission factors and control efficiency.
The interconnection of the Uncertainty Data Base is seen in Figure 2
The kinds of factors which will be judged for each speci/resolution cell
will include those listed in Figure 3.
Further information on the uncertainty data base will be provided
in the next presentation by Carmen Benkovitz.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, it should be recognized that the Quality Assurance
Program, like the data base work it serves, is in a relatively early
stage in its development. Its objectives at this time are to make mod?s
and general improvements. The approach being taken follows the general
guidelines of quality assurance in terms of high reporting levels,
avoidance of conflicts of interests and visibility. It relies a great
deal on stimulating corrective feedback, from external reviewers. It
could benefit greatly from increased measurement and feedback whereby
estimated emissions are compared with true measurements.
62
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FIGURE 2
UNCtRIALNTY ESTIMATES, EMISSION DATA BASE
01
co
EMISSIONS VALUES
AND
TEMPORAL PROFILES
UNCERTAINTY DATA BASE
- UNCERTAINTY PERCENTAGES
BY EMISSION CLASS
EMISSIONS REPORTS
- VALUES
- UNCERTAINTY PERCENTAGES
-------
Ch
-c.
UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATES. EMISSIONS DATA BASE
FACTORS WHICH AFFECT ACCURACY OF ESTIMATES
DEVIATIONS ON:
(G) • EMISSION FACTORS: AVAILABILITY, ACCURACY, DEVIATION, VARIABLES
(A) t FUEL/FEEDj QUANTITY DEVIATIONS FROM ASSUMED VALUE
A • FUEL QUALITY; S, N CONTENT DEVIATIONS
B • ASSUMED IDENTIFY OF EMITTERS OR SOURCES
c • INLET AIR TEMP. RELATIVE TO ASSUMED VALUE \
D • EXCESS AIR RELATIVE TO ASSUMED VALUE
E • PRODUCTION ACTIVITY; QUANTITY DEVIATIONS FROM ASSUMED VALUE
F • OPERATING PROFILES; RELATIVE TO ASSUMED VALUE
H • CLIMATIC VALUES; RELATIVE TO ASSUMED VALUE
j t VMT/POPULATION
K • POPULATION
L • FAR/POPULATION
M • OTHER
(RE) • CONTROL TECHNOLOGY EFFECTIVENESS
-------
ESTIMATION OF W CERTAINTY WITHIN
NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORIES
Carmen Benkovitz
Atmospheric Sciences Division
Department of Applied Science
Brookhaven National Laboratory
Upton, New York 11973
EPA Interagency Agreement No. DW930122-01
Project Officer: J. David Mobley
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
65
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ESTIMATION OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN
NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORIES
by: Carmen Benkovitz
Atmospheric Sciences Division
Department of Applied Science
Brookhaven National Laboratory
Upton, New York 11973
ABSTRACT
A major goal of Task Group Bis the development and maintenance of
detailed inventories of anthropogenic emissions in support of acid
deposition research. The acid deposition emission inventory plan,
prepared as one of the EPA contributions to Task Group B, identifies the
need for emission inventories of current base years to support both
assessment activities and the development, evaluation, and use of long
range transport and transformation models. The uncertainty estimates of
emission data are an integral part of the inventory. The objective of
this project is to develop the methodologies needed to evaluate the
uncertainties associated with the emission data as presented in the 1980
base year NAPAP emission inventory and to implement a prototype system
to calculate these uncertainties.
66
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ESTIMATION OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN
NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORIES
INTRODUCTION
The NAPAP emission inv:ntory was based on the National Emissions
Data System (NEDS) currently operated by the Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards (OAQPS) of the EPA (National Air Data Branch,
1983). NEDS provided the basic data from which all other levels of
aggregation or disaggregation will be calculated. The basic NEDS data
are statistical averaged parameters which allow the calculation of
yearly emissions of the five criteria pollutants (particulates, S02,
NO , VOC, and CO) on an individual source/proctss basis for point sources
and on a county level for area sources. Current plans call for the
application of spatial, temporal, and species disaggregation algorithms
which will be based on disaggregation factors (or modifications thereof)
developed for the Northeast Corridor Regional Modeling Project (NECRMP).
Higher levels of aggregation will be calculated as sums of the NEDS
data.
Calculation of the uncertainty of the emissions values will be
based on the statistical formulas expressing the variance of a function
based on the expected values and variances of the parameters used to
calculate the function. Application of these techniques will start with
the algorithms used to calculate the yearly emission values and will be
extended to include currently known algorithms for spatial and temporal
aggregation and for spatial, temporal, and species disaggregation as
applicable.
DISCUSSION
The statistical formulas to be used are those expressing the variance
of a function based on the expected values and the variances of the
parameters used to calculate thd function. For N independent parameters
67
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N
and a function of the form x= 2. U. , the variance is given by:
k=l
N
V(x) = I V(U, ) (1)
k=l K
N
For a function of the form x = 0 U., the variance is given by:
k=l K
N N
v(x) = n {[E
-------
5. Preliminary Evaluation of Acidic Deposition Assessment
Uncertainties, project conducted by Argonne National
Laboratory (ANL) under contract to the U.S. Department of
Energy, November 1982 (preliminary report).
All these projects have based their calculations on the statistical
formulas for error propagation as derived for "small" values of the
errors; i.e., the Taylor series expansion included only the first
derivatives of the function. Some of the error values used in subsequent
calculations have been as high as 80 to 90 percent of the mean. For
this size errors, the exact equations derived in this project represent
more accurate solutions.
Acquisition of Required Data
Information currently available in the NAPAP emission inventory
includes data on yearly emissions of point sources at the individual
source level and on yearly emissions of area sources at the county/
category level. Parameters used to calculate emission values include
emission factors, fuel, process or activity rates, ash or sulfur content
of fuels (if appropriate), and efficiency of control equipment for the
appropriate point sources or category adjustment factors for area sources,
The development of the variance values for emission estimates or
for the parameters needed for the calculation of the emission values is
not within the scope of this project. Thece values are to be developed
by subsequent projects.
Spatial, temporal, and speciation calculations are scheduled to be
implemented as add-on systems to the basic NAPAP data. Disaggregation
factors that were developed for other emission inventory projects are
being studied and adapted for use in the NAPAP inventory. Estimation of
the variances of all disaggregation factors is being included as part of
the output from these projects.
Implementation
The final task of this project addresses the design and
implementation of the basic framework of computer software needed to
calculate uncertainties associated with yearly emission values for both
point, and area sources. The conceptual design is independent of the
software system used to s-jpport the NAPAP inventory; the design and
implementation of the software modules will allow portability between
computer systems and will be as independent as possible of the current
NAPAP inventory software system.
69
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Uncertainty values associated with each parameter used in calculating
emission values are expected to be applicable for whole "classes" of
these parameters rather than just to individual sources. To avoid
needless repetition of data (with the associated increase in storage
costs and the ever present danger at update times), a file with
uncertainty "profiles" will be designed. This file will contain all the
variance information needed to calculate the uncertainty value associated
with the yearly emissions of a point source or an area source category.
Each uncertainty profile will be identified by a unique code; at retrieval
time the appropriate uncertainty profiles can be referenced to allow th
-------
REVIEW OP APPROACHES TO VOC SPECIATION
M. P. Papal
J. C. Dickerman
Radian Corporation
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27703
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
71
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REVIEW OF APPROACHES TO VOC SPECIATION
by: M. P. Papal
J. C. Dicker-man
Radian Corporation
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
ABSTRACT
This paper presents the results of a study that was conducted to
evaluate the various approaches that have been used by atmospheric
scientists to speciate VOC emissions. A wide diversity exists in
speciation approaches amongst studies completed to data due primarily to
the requirements of the atmospheric model being used. Recommendations
are that full speciation be encouraged in future program efforts to
provide the flexibility and accuracy required to accommodate the more
sophisticated models and mechanisms, and to provide data for air toxic
assessments.
72
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REVIEW OF APPROACHES TO VOC SPECIAT IN
INTRODUCTION
The Reagan Administration has established an Interagency Task Force
to investigate technical and policy issues associated with the formation
,and mitigation of acid ^.-ecipitation. One of the concerns of this task
force is the emission of volatile organic compounds (VOC), which are
thought to participate in atmospheric reactions with nitrogen and sulfur
compounds resulting in the formation of acid precipitation. VOC's are
also known to contribute substantially to photochemical reactions that
produce ozone.
Although wide agreement exists on the importance of VOC in these
reactions, opinions differ markedly on the approach tc speciation for
VOC. Researchers hav^ performed modeling and monitoring studies using
data bases with different degrees of speciation. The objective of this
paper is to identify and review these studies and approaches, and to
provide the Department of Energy (DOE) with pvul.iminary recommendations
on the type of approach or approaches to be used for future VOC programs.
DISCUSSION
The purposes of this study are to (1) identify the .various approaches
to VOC speciation used currently by atmospheric scientists, (2) describe
the rationale for each spociation approach, and (3) evaluate what degree
of speciation will be required for future photochemical and acid
precipitation modeling and monitoring programs.
To fulfill the first two objectives, six studies were examined in
this paper including:
* the Northeast Regional Study (NEROS and NECRMP),
* the Houston Area Oxidant Study (HAOS),
73
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• the EPRI/ERT VOC emissions inventory data base,
• Harris County (Houston, TX) VOC emissions inventory,
• Harris County Monitoring Study, and
• a modeling study supporting a Louisiana State implementation
plan for ozone.
These studies focusud primarily on photochemical modeling to establish
the dependence of ozone formation on VOC emissions. Although these
studies do not directly address acid precipitation formation, they were
selected for review because models and mechanisms specific to acid
precipitation formation and VOC are in the early stages of development.
Further, many of the VOC speciation issues are common to those encountered
for ozone formation.
The better known chemical mechanisms included in atmospheric models
were also reviewed. These mechanisms include:
• Dodge;
• Demerjian;
• California Institute of Technology (CIT);
• Carbon Bond III (CB III);
• Atkinson, Lloyd, and Winges; and
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
These mechanisms were reviewed to evaluate the different speciation
requirements of each.
Review of the six studies and the six chemical mechanisms revealed
that a great diversity exists in the requirements for speciation in the
current ozone and acid precipitation models and mechanisms. Table 1
cjmmarizes each study, the speciation scheme, and the rationale for
selecting this scheme. With respect to the chemical mechanisms, the
speciation requirements vary from two specific VOC species and one VOC
class in the simplest mechanism to 12 VOC species and classes in the
most sophisticated mechanism. The VOC species and classes used in each
chemical mechanism are selected by a modeler to reflect his understanding
of the atmospheric chemistry involved.
74
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Table 1. SUMMARY OF VOC SPECIATION APPROACHES AND RATIONALE
Study
VOC Species Classes
Rationale
NEROS
HAOS
EPRI/ERT
Harris County Emissions
Inventory
Harris County Ambient
Monitoring Program
Louisiana SIP
Modeling Study
Approximately 150 individual
species
Detailed speciatiou grouped
into seven classes
10 species classes
133 individual species
38 individual species
monitored continuously
100 individual species in
C2-C10 monitored discretely
Detailed speciation grouped
into five classes
Dictated by the number of
individual species contained in the
speciation profiles from each point
and area source
Driven by photochemical model
requirements
Driven by input requirements for
the Atkinson, Lloyd, Winges
chemical mechanism
Dictated by the number of
individual species contained in the
speciation profiles for each source
Limits of analytical techniques and
cost
Driven by input requirements for
the Carbon Bond III chemical
mechanism
Notes: NEROS - Northeast Regional Oxidant Study
HAOS - Houston Area Oxidant Study
EPRI/ERT - Electric Power Research Institute/Environmental Research and Technology, Inc.
data base
-------
A second factor that has influenced VOC speciation approaches is
the development of more specific analytical methods. In the past, some
classes of VOC (e.g., paraffins, olefins, aromatics) could be directly
measured by colorimetric methods. These are no longer widely used,
however, since more accurate techniques that analyze specific VOC species
are now available. Such techniques include gas chromatography with
flame ionization/photoionization detectors or gas chromatography with
mass spectrometry confirmation. As a result, the input requirements for
a photochemical or acid precipitation model are satisfied by grouping
the individual VOC species into the necessary reactivity classes. Thus,
for most modeling studies, full speciation usually precedes rather than
follows the development of reactivity classes.
Where the regional VOC species data are unavailable to photochemical
modelers, government agencies, or others interested in VOC emissions
the source most widely used to estimate these data is the VOC Species
Data Manual published by the EPA and developed by KVB, Inc. This manual
contains speciation profiles or a large number of VOC-emitting source
types. If the mass of total hydrocarbon is available for a source, the
relative fractions of individual VOC species (or reactivity classes) ara
given by the speciation profile. It should be noted, however, that
although the manual is the best available source for speciation data, it
has several broad data gaps as well as inaccuracies that result from a
lack of actual sampling data. In many cases, no sampling data at all
are available; in these instances, literature values and engineering
judgment are used, leading to inherent uncertainties in the speciation
profile.
CONCLUSIONS
Based on the results of this study, full speciation should be
pursued for future VOC monitoring and modeling programs. This preliminary
recommendation is based on four factors.
1. Currently available analytical methods suggest individual
speciation over the older, less accurate methods for directly
measuring VOC classes. Data from the older methods on such
classes would likely satisfy input requirements for only the
simplest chemical mechanisms.
76
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2. The broad diversity in the requirements for speciation in the
current set of ozone and acid precipitation mechanisms strongly
suggests that full speciation be used. Identifying exact
species gives the flexibility of being able to use the data
with a variety of mechanisms.
3. As ozone and acid precipitation models evolve, the need for
full speciation will increase to accommodate the more
sophisticated models and mechanisms.
4. Although not directly associated with acid precipitation,
toxic air pollutant assessments are possible if full speciation
is utilized in ambient air monitoring and source sampling
programs.
These conclusions are corroborated by the increasing trend toward full
speciation in most studies performed by most atmospheric scientists and
modelers.
It should also be noted that the number of VOC species that are
actually rneasurec' in a monitoring program will be constrained by the
available budget and the ultimate use of the data. Therefore, the
thousands of VOC species that could potentially be measured must be
prioritized into a scheme that is consistent with the available budget
and the technical requirements of the program.
77
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NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT FOR FY-85/86
J. David Mob ley
Air and energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Fnvironmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NO 27711
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, NC
December 3-4, 1984
70
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NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY nEVELOPf.^fT FOR FY-85/86
by: J. Davtd Mob ley
Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
ABSTRACT
The major Inventory development activities of the National Acid
Precipitation Assessment Program Task Group B for FY-85/86 are designed
to fulfill the emission data base requirements for the development of an
Eulerlan acid deposition model. A data handling system will be
developed to provide the necessary spatial, temporal; and species
resolution of the Inventory. Planned quality assurance activities will
focus on establishing a QA expert team for review of the Inventory
development. Emission factor developments will Include VOC allocation
factors and an assessment of the use of continuous en.lsslon monitoring
data for SO. and NO as a measure of comparison with the temporal
allocation algorithms Integrated In the Inventory data system.
79
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NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT FOR FY-85/86
INTRODUCTION
In 1980, Congress established the National Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program (NAPAP) to coordinate and expand research relevant to
the problems posed by acid deposition In and around the United States.
The program Is organized and managed through the Interagency Task Force
on Acid Precipitation (ITFAP) and 10 subordinate task groups coordinating
specific technical areas of research. One of these 10 groups Is Task
Group B, Man-Made Sources, chaired by a representative of the Office of
Fossil Energy, Department of Energy. The task group Includes members
representing the Environmental Protection Agency, the Tennessee Valley
Authority, and the National Laboratory Consortium. The major objectives
of Task Croup B are:
1. Provide an accurate and complete Inventory of emissions from
man-made sources believed to be Important In acid deposition
processes. The Inventories are to be provided with adequate
geographic, temporal, and sectoral resolution.
2. Provide models which predict how acidic and acid-precursor
emissions ma/ be altered by factors such as economic growth,
fuel supply, emissions regulations, and control techniques.
These models * I I I have the capability to permit the
calculation of alternative control strategies.
The specific objectives of the Task Group B emission Inventory
Implementation program are:
1. Support the 1985 assessment to be performed by the ITFAP.
2. Provide the necessary Inventory refinements and resolution for
the ITFAP 1987 and 1989 assessments.
3. Supoort tli<5 emission inventory needs for the Eulerlan model
deveiopmenf and validation programs.
80
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DISCUSSION
The primary focus of FY-85/86 Inventory activities Is directed to
fulfill the emissions data base requirements for the development of an
Eulerian acid deposition model. Within the EPA's Office of Research and
Development, the Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory has been
assigned the lead responsibility to develop an Eulerian model for acid
rain which Mill be based on a framework similar to the Northeast Regional
Oxldant Study (NEROS) Eulerian oxldant model. The National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has been assigned the task of developing the
model framework which Includes a number of chemical transformation
modules. The variety of these modules under development dictates the
specific chemical species required in the emission Inventory to drive
the model Input. Development of the Eulerian acid deposition model
began In FY-83, with preliminary testing to begin In FY-85.
A major element of the emission Inventory structure Is the data
handling systems supporting the required temporal, spatial, and species
resolution for the NAPAP Eulerian acid deposition model. Since the
temporal and spatial resolution requirements of the acid deposition
model are similar to those of the Northeast Corridor Regional Modeling
Project (NECRMP), the data handling system used In NECRMP, termsd the
Regional Model Data Handling System (RMDHS), was adapted for use with
the prelImlnary 1980 inventory.
In order to meet FY-85 and FY-86 NAPAP emission Inventory
requirements, substantial mod If IcaMons to RMDHS would be needed,
IncludIng:
• VOC species resolution Into specific chemical classes,
• Additional inorganic pollutant species,
• Derivation of alkal Ine dust emissions,
• Integration of Canadian emission Inventory, and
• Integration of natural source emission Inventory.
Table 1 Is a summary of planned tasks for the development of acid
deposition emission Inventories for atmospheric modeling and historical
emission profiles during the FY-85 and FY-86 tlmeframe. In parentheses
after each task Is a program code Identifier consistent with the FY.-86
Interagency Budget Proposal for Task Group B.
81
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Table 1. ACID DEPOSITION EMISSION INVENTORY TASKS
1. NAPAP emission inventory for 1980 and 1904 (or 1985) base years.
A. Develop spatial/temporal allocation system ('31-19b).
B. Generate inventory report and improve software (Bl-19a).
C. Develop and apply 1984 S02/N0x allocation factors (B]-13a).
D. Integrate Canadian and natural source inventories (Bl-16).
E. Update annual data base (Bl-31).
2. Quality assurance and inventory review/certification.
A. Document QA/QC of S02/N0 inventory (Bl-18a).
B. Third party review and certify inventory (Ul-18b).
C. State review 1984 S02/N0x inventory (Bl-18c).
D. QA-expert team review inventory (Bl-20).
?. Emission factor development and formulation.
A. Develop and apply VOC allocation factors (Bl-14).
B. Develop allocation factors for S04, NH3, and alkaline dust
emissions (Bl-15).
C. Conduct emission factor tests (Bl-22).
D. Develop fuel use/emitter characteristics (B1-C1).
E. Analyze existing CEM data (Bl-13b).
4. Historical emissions inventories.
A. Increase accuracy of S02/N0 inventory (81-17a).
B. Develop special historic inventories (Bl-17b).
C. Develop monthly S02/N0 emission data base (Bl-23).
82
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-------
Data Handling
snt«i
(B1-1C6)
hourly E»1jitom
I>rof1l«»
(§1-196)
Spatial Sourc*
Allocation*
(11-13*)
(11-19.)
±
1. Afldyn
OK Data (§1-136)
2. OA/OC (11-lSa)
UnctrUlnty
UHwU»
(11-20)
!• ^JtftooOiOfly AflB
SoftMTI
2. Eirltilon Fictan
3. 0* Cipart Uata
I960 M*««
EBISSIW I*VOlTD«t
S0|. NO.
10 rOC Ptratocntvlca)
Inuqnti
Clrud1«n [ivtntory
(§1-16)
Ficton
(81-15)
(B1-Z2)
Tntl
1980 NEDS FHn
CO, Total PirtlCuUtM
WC Allocation Fwton
(I1-.U)
I960
KID BfWSlTIOl ERISS10H IHVOTTWT
CO
7. Total VOC
I.
9. AlkaMt
10. AlkMM*
11. FroeyHn*
12. Ct*rl«M
13.
14.
IS.
1*. Ora»1c AclM
17. Fotwte Acid
18. Frepan*
19. lutifM
21. Acetic Acid
22. AlUlIm Dint
23. Total Fartlculatn
Output to IH«n
(I1-19*)
Acent
iCC
Annual Haport (ll-lta)
9/8S Drift
12/«
Figure 1. FY-85 activities in developing the final
1980 NAPAP emission inventory.
84
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Hourly Emission
Prof11ts
(Bl-19b)
Spatial Sourco
Allocations
(81-13*)
Editing and
Validation
Annual
81-31)
1.
2.
3,
4.
5.
Comparative
Assessments
Analyze
CEM Data (Bl-13b)
Fuel Use Emitter
Characteristics
(81-21)
3rd Party Review
OA/OC (Bl-18a)
State Certification
(Bl-18c)
Uncertainty Estimates
1.
2.
3.
(81-20)
Hetnodology and
Software
Emission Factors
QA Expert Terns
Legend
198S NEDS Flics
SO,. NO , CO, VOC, Particulars
EIS/PS
ns/As
Inventory Improvements
and Additions
Integrate
Canadian Ir/entory
(81- (6)
Emission
Factors
(81-15)
Verification
Tests
(81-22)
\i
Natural Sourcw
Invititory
19»5 MM* A<1d Dtoosltlon
Efl1«t1on Inventory
(Includes 23 pollutant
sp«c1ts)
VOC Allocetlon Factors
(81-14)
Quarterly Inventory
Output to Users
(81-19a)
Tape
Access
Through »CC
Annual Report (Bl-19a)
9/M Draft
12/86 Final
Annual Data
— — under Consideration
Planned
Figure 2. FY-86 activities in developing the 1985 NAPAP
emission inventory.
85
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•the formulation of detailed allocation 'actors for SO NO^. and all VOC
species required for the Eulerlan model. Intensive QA/QC of tne
Inventory will be provided through both third party review of the data
base and specific state review of the S0«/N0 Inventory components. In
addition, the CEM data evaluation will be Intensified In FY-86 pending
assessment of the results from the Initial FY-85 program applied to the
1980 NAPAP emission Inventory.
86
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SESSION 3: APPLICATION OF EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR SCIENTIFIC PURPOSES
Chairman: Ed Trexler
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Planning and Environment
Mall Stop FE-13, Room B-120
Washington, D.C. 20545
87
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SULFUR DEPOSITION MODELING WITH THE NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY
Terry L. Clark
Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
88
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SULFUR DEPOSITION MODELING WITH THE NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY
INTRODUCTION
The Environmental Protection Agency and Environment Canada are
coordinating the International Sulfur Deposition Model Evaluation (ISDME)
as an extension of an earlier model evaluation effort. One goal of the
current study is to assess model performance and credibility via
statistical evaluation of the 1980 seasonal and annual model results
from as many as 15 Lagrangian and two Eulerian regional-scale sulfur
2
deposition models.
The evaluation year of 1980 was selected on the basis of the
significant increase in the number of operational precipitation chemistry
monitoring sites in eastern North America during that year and the
availability of suitable U.S. and Canadian S02 emission inventories for
that year 3'4
Before any air pollution model can be applied, point and area
source emissions data from an appropriate inventory must be aggregated
or processed, usually via a model "preprocessor," to create a more
compatible input data file. In an evaluation study involving a group of
models, it is essential that on; processing algorithm be used to avoid
extraneous differences between .nodel results. Therefore, a uniform
processing algorithm was developed and applied by Benkovitz to create
four sets of seasonal and annual emission grids, any one of which would
be compatible with the ISDME models.
NAPAP Emission Data Processing
Essentially, ISDME data processing involved extracting appropriate
inventory elements (Table 1), apportioning S02 emissions to grid cells,
and creating model input data grids with configuration required by the
ISDME models. Spatial resolution of these grid configurations ranged
from 70 to 127 km.
90
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Table 1 ELEMENTS OF THE NAPAP EMISSION INVENTORY
APPROPRIATE TO REGIONAL-SCALE SULFUR DEPOSITION MODELING
Element Name Reason For* Need
State Code Source Identieication
County Code Source Identification
Plant Code Source Idenlification
NEDS Point Code Source Identification
Date of Record Uncertainty Assessment
SCC Code Emission Apportionment
SIC Code Emission Apportionment
Point Source Location Emission Apportionment
Percentage Annual Throughput Emission Apportionment
Normal Operating Rate Emission Apportionment
Annual S02 Point Source Emission Rate Emission Apportionment
Annual S02 Area Source Emission Rate Emission Apportionment
Points With Common Stack Emission Apportionment
For point sources, as a means of data quality assurance, the
inventory source coordinates were screened to determine if indeed the
source was located within the designated county. When the coordinates
were missing or the inventory source coordinates were located outside a
quadrangle whose perimeter was at least % degree latitude/longitude from
any point along the county border, the county centroid coordinates were
substituted as a correction. For some states, county centroids were
used for over half the point sources (e.g., Iowa, Kansas, Michigan,
Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Wisconsin). These point
source location adjustments have been incorporated into subsequent
versions of the NAPAP inventory by Engineering Science.
After the source location was established, an annually averaged,
effective stack height was computed for each point source using the
inventory stack parameters and climatological atmospheric stability
data. Frequently, the set of stack parameters was incomplete so national
average stack parameters for the appropriate SIC were substituted.
91
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Next, the seasonal S02 emission rates we^e determined from percentage
annual throughput data and allocated to the proper layer (0-200, 201-500,
and above 500 m) of the grid cells containing the source. Seasons were
defined thusly: winter December, January, and February, and so forth.
Area source emissions, which were available only on a county basis,
were apportioned to grid cells according to the apportionment of 1970
county population based on U.S. Census Bureau data. Emissions from area
sources were assumed to be injected in the 0-200 m layer
Uoon completion of the point and area source emissions data
processing, a quality assurance program was implemented. As a result,
for each grid cell, the sum of the seasonal emissions equalled the
annual emissions. In addition, the distribution of ISDME annual emissions
1 4
compared very well with that of the MOI emission inventory
CONCLUSIONS
As a result of the ISDME emission data processing effort, Lagrangian
and Eulerian sulfur deposition modelers have at their disposal 1980
seasonal and annual 3-layer S02 point source and 1-layer S02 area source
emissions grids for North America. Four different gi^d configurations,
ranging in resolution from ?0 to 127 km, are available.
REFERENCES
1. U.S./Canadian Memorandum of Intent on Transboundary Air Pollution,
Atmospheric Sciences and Analysis Work Group 2, Phase III Final
Report. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, D.C.
(1983).
2. Clark, T L., D. H. Coventry, C. M. Benkovitz, E. C. Voldner, and
M. Olson. The International Sulfur Deposition Model Evaluation,
Phase I, North American Evaluation, Volume I. To be published.
3. Engineering Science. Development of the NAPAP Emission Inventory
for the 1980 Base Year U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Contract No. '3-02-3509. (June 1984).
4. U.S./Canadian Memorandum of Intent on Transboundary Air Pollution
Emissions, Costs and Engineering Assessment Work Group 2, Phase III
Final Report. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington,
D.C. (1982).
5. Benkovitz, C. _M_. Prjvate communication.
92
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EMISSION INVENTORY APPLICATIONS TO
REGIONAL ACID DEPOSITION MODELING
Joan H- Novak
Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental1 Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
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EMISSION INVENTORY APPLICATIONS TO
REGIONAL ACID DEPOSITION MODELING
by. Joan H. Novak
Atmospheric Sciences Research Laboratory
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
ABSTRACT
A comprehensive Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) is being
developed ard a simpler fast-turn-around "engineering" model(s) (EM; is
being designed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part
of the NatiDnal Ac'd Precipitation Assessment °r,ogram (NAPAP). This
paper describes how potential assessment appl ica :ions anj research
guestions affect those model designs and the subsequent emission
inventory regui rements. Finally, a recommendation ;s m^.de for the EPA
to consolidate inventory development efforts to produce an agency
emission inventory applicable to the wide soectrum of models and
applications throughout the EPA.
94
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[MISSION INVENTOR/ AC-l't I f A TIONS TO
REGIONAL ACID DtPOSIIION MODELING
INTRODUCTION
The scope and complexities of the arid rain issue in the United
States present modelers with conflicting requirements. The models are
expected to be accurate and scientifica ly credible as well as easy to
use for assessment purooses. Task Group C nf NAPAP Atmospheric
Processes is responsible for coordinating the model development and
research efforts. The primary model development activities are being
performed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in
Boulder, Colorado. These activities include the development of 3
comprehensive Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and a simpler
fast-turn-around "engineering" mode'(s) These models have great
potential to provide information needed to achieve many of the major
goals of NAPAP- l
• understand the basic cnemical and physical processes related
to acid depos i t i on,
» assess the severity of acid deposition effects,
t determine the causes of acid deposition,
• assess the relative importance of different causes of acid
depos i t i on,
• assess the effects of man's activities on acid deposition, and
• determine effective control strategies.
DISCUSSION
The purpose of this discussion is to present an overview of the
current modeling approach with special emphasis on emission inventory
reguirements. The scientific community agrees that a rigorous treatment
of processes relevant to acid deposition is essential for credible
95
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result^. Thus, the RADM will include a comnrehensive description of all
the major physical and chemical processes currently known to effect acid
deposition. However, incorporation of this level of detail on a regional
scale extends the model execution time beyond what is considered
reasonable to address the policy and assessment questions, theie require
calculation of long term averages with sufficient speed to permit
extensive experimentation with alernative solution strategies.
The EM, therefore, is being specfically designed to address the
policy and assessment applications. This model will incorporate condensed
representations of several simple nonlinear physical and chemical
processes contained in the RADM and consequently will require a relatively
short execution time. The credibility of the CM can, at a minimum, be
evaluated by comparison with the more accurate RADM results.
T 9
Recent reviews1' have shown that a three dimensional Eulerian
framework is the most feasible general approach for toth RADM and EM.
This decision has significant impact on spatial resolution requirements
of emission?. The current RADM domain covers the entire continental
United States and southern Canada. Theoretical considerations suggest a
20 x 20 km2 grid resolution, however, due to computer time and space
limitations, a compromise of 80 x 80 km2 grid spacinn was chosen. A
larger grid size may give substantial inaccuracies. Major point source
emitters and many urban areas, nevertheless, must be treated individually
to determine the impact of specific sources and to correct for the
effact of chemical a.id physical phenomena on a subgrid scale. Within a
grid cell, inhomgeneities may exist in emissions, chemical reaction
types and rates, deposition, and transport phenomena. Development of an
independent module to calculate correction factors for each grid due to
these inhomogeneities is being planned. Thus, a 20 x 20 km2 grid
resolution for area emissions is required to adequately parameterize the
effect of subgrid scale emission patterns. The RADM has up to 15 vertical
layers and can incorporate emissions into each of these layers. Most
models assume emissions at the surface with instantaneous mixing aloft.
Multiple levels or emissions should have a definite accuracy advantage,
especially near the source.
-------
The RACM, because of its size and complexity, is typically executed
ir, an episodic mode for a 2 to 3 day period. Annual or long term averages
can be approximated by the weighted average of representative episodic
model results. The RADM typically requires hourly emissions for these
episodic applications. A representative weekday/weekend diurnal pattern
for each season is adequate to produce the required temporal variation
of emissions.
A comprehensive chemical reaction scheme detailed enough to handle
nonlinearities resulting from sulfur, nitrogen oxide and ozone chemistry,
and cloud chemistry in both the gaseous and aqueous phases is necessary
to achieve many of the major objectives of NAPAP An emissions inventory
is being developed which ic capable of addressing the above i.ssues on
the required temporal and spatial time scales. It j/i 11 include:
• major acid precursors (S02, NO );
• sulfate aerosols because of their contribution to the total
sulfur budget ;
• volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide because of
their importance in the oxidation process;
• reactive hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides because of their
role in oxidant production;
0 direct sources of ac;d species such as organic acids, and
hydrochloric and hydrofluoric acid whose vapors are incorporated
into clouds and precipitation;
• coarse aerosols ('2.5 pm) and particles important to acid
formati on;
• amronia for its role as a buffering agent in cloud chemistry;
• other buffering aerosol species such as alkaline dust;
t aerosol components key to catalytic conversion in agueous
reactions (soot, iron, manganese);
• naturally emitted precursors to acid rain such as reduced
sulfur spec i es; and
• other naturally emitted species related to acid or oxidant
formation.
97
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In contrast, emission requirements for the EM are less stringent.
The model domain remains the same as RADM, however, grid resolution may
be reduced. The EM will have only three to five verticle levels P~id
each specific version would treat only one family of Lhemical species.
Parameterization of transformation and deposition processes would include
simplifications of the nonlinear chemistry based on knowledge gained
2
from RADM executions and observation data. Therefore, emission species
requirements and, in fact, all other emission requirements, are easily
satisfied by the RADM emissions data set.
CONCLUSIONS
The goals of the NAPAP are too broad to rely on a singular solution.
This brief overview of the atmospheric modeling approach illustrates the
conflicting demands of the research and assessment applications and
their implications for emissions inventory development. The inventory
developers must provide an emissions data base at a level of resolution
that meets the most stringent requirements, and yet be flexible enough
to transform those base emissions into appropriate spatial, temporal,
and species resolutions to satisfy the full spectrum of needs of the
scientific and assessment/policy communities. They must also be able to
provide estimates of uncertainty associated with the emissions.
Finally, acid rain is only one of the many air pollution problems
facing the EPA today. Modeling assessment of other problems such as
ozone, sulfate, visibility, particulate, etc. have many of the same
basic emission inventory requirements even though differences do exist.
I recommend that the EPA integrate emission inventory development
activities to provide an agency inventory that will satisfy the various
emission requirements of current and anticipated modeling and assessment
programs.
98
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REFERENCES
1.
2.
3.
National Center for Atmospheric Research. Regional Acid Deposition:
Models and Physical Processes. IJ..S. En-; i ronrnpnta; Protection
Agency Interagency Agreement No. DW49930144-01-2 (April 1984).
National Center for Atmospheric Research Summary
on Acid Deposition Policy and Assessment Variables
Approaches. Boulder, Colorado. (October 1-5,
of the Workshop
and Mode 1i ng
1984).
Middleton, P Data Peguirements and Analysis for the NCAR Regional
Acid Deposition Model. (October 1984).
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THE USE OF EMISSION INVENTORIES
FOR EFFECTS STUDIES
Ann M. EUrtuskd
Wi i 1 i air R Al sop
.Acid Deposition Program
North Carolina State l/nwersity
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Oeposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raieigh, North Carolir.i
December 3-4, 1%4
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THE USE OF EMISSION INVENTORIES
FOR EFFECTS STUDIES
by: Ann M. Bartuska
Wi11iam R. Alsop
Acid Deposition Program
North Carolina State University
ABSTRACT
Understanding effects of atmospheric deposition on terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems requires that we understand how systems are responding
present'/ when compared to past response. Effects should be coupled to
deposition wherever possible; however, deposition data are incomplete
both spatially and temporally. Attempts to identify, for example,
changes overtime in deposition of S04-2 and/or H ions are confounded by
differing methods of collecting rainfall' (e.g., bulk vs. wet-only, event
vs. weekly or monthly, etc.) and techniques for measuring analysis of
precipitation chemistry. The lack of evidence for a strong nonlinearity
in the relationship between emissions and deposition in eastern North
America suggests that nonlinearity is probably not significant for
annual average deposition in eastern North America (National Research
Council, 1983). When used with appropriate consideration for the
uncertainties involved, this conclusion provides a powerful research
tool as the emissions data base is much more complete than either
historical or '•egional deposition data base?.. The relationship of S02
emissions on a State-wide or regional basis to changing tree ring
chemistry and water quality is discussed as examples of the potential
role of emissions inventories in ecosystem assessment.
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THE USE OF EMISSION INVENTORIES
FOR EFFECTS STUDIES
INTRODUCTION
Evaluation of emissions on a State-wide, regional, and national
level is a major research activity for determining trends and patterns
of acidic deposition. Direct effects of emissions on ecosystems are not
as much a concern within current research programs as the transport and
transformation of emissions and the subsequent deposition of substances
on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. However, deposition data bases
are incomplete with regard to various components, specifically dry
deposition and iretals. If a consistent relationship between emissions
and deposition can be defined, then researchers can use emissions data
as a surrogate for deposition to describe spatial and temporal trends in
ecosystem response. The remainder of tnis paper will discuss specific
examples of ecosystem research where emissions inventories are appropriate
DISCUSSION
Trends in Aquatic Chemistry
Acid deposition effects were first brought to the attention of the
scientific community when Adirondack lake waters were reported to have
decreased in pH to levels deleterious to fish. As research in aquatic
pcosystems has expanded, we are not only trying to measure responses to
present deposition levels but also evaluating current responses in
terms of historical levels of deposition. Changes in lake or stream
chemistry reflect the amount of modification imposed on deposition by
the terrestrial ecosystem. Changes in deposition quality may be
immediately reflected by changes in aquatic chemistry (direct response),
or the effects observed currently may be the result of long term inputs
of acidic or acidifying compound? (delayed response). The chemical
characteristics of very few systems are known prior to 1975/1980. Thus,
102
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trend analyses of lake and stream chemistry remain a dominant theme in
aquatic ecosystem research both from the standpoint of evaluating the
historical record and being able to predict responses at changing
deposition rates.
As historical deposition data for many regions of concern are not
available, the relationship between trends in emissions and changes in
surface water chemistry is of particular interest1. Two recent reports
have evaluated the relationship between these data: 1) Hendrey, et al.
(1983) developed the ACID data base to examine regional response, and
2) Smith and Alexander used the USGS benchmark stations coupled with
State-wide S02 emissions for site-specific trends in stream chemistry.
The USGS sites have an advantage1 over ACID sites because sampling and
analytical methods have been consistent over the 10-15 year record, data
are quality assured, and the watersheds have experienced little or no
changes in land use. Thus, although Smith and Alexander (1983) had data
for fewer sites (47 in the U.S.), the data and trend analyses for any
given site are probably more reliable.
A comparison of emissions, deposition, and w^ter quality trends for
several southern States is presented in Table 1. North Carolina and
Virginia stream sulfate concentration follows the emissions pattern;
however, inconsistencies in the other States make generalizations
difficult. Predicting future response in other aquatic systems may be
possible as long as land use history is considered. Because of the many
potentially confounding factors, detection of trends from atmospheric
pollution is best accomplished through consideration of streams with
negligible upstream disturbance.
Forest Response
Recent concern over the impact of atmospheric deposition on forested
ecosystems has increased as reports of forest decline from Germany and
from the Appalachian Mountains of the U.S. increase. Causal mechanisms
for forest decline have not been identified although many hypotheses
have been proposed. Because trees are long-liv.J and respond to many
environmental changes, recent declines must be put in a historical
context in order to evaluate the role of anthropogenic pollutants.
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Table 1. Caqwl soa of treads In S Missions. S deposition, and sulfate concentrations In surface waters.
suu
DC
»A
CA
11
sc
TV
1955
0.89
1.3?
0.48
2.20
0.62
1.98
I960
0.84
1.47
0.52
2.60
0.66
3J1
- S Ealssloni Density*
1965
1.10
1.76
0.88
3.88
0.72
3.18
1970
1.80
1.98
1.14
5.75
1.12
4.24
1975
1.77
1.48
1.90
5.80
1.12
6.02
\
1980 Increase 1953*
1.84
1.24
2.36
5.02
1.66
4.74
107 0.56
0
392
128
168 0.53
140
19540
0.36
1.63
0.55
0.98
0.41
Sulfur Depot Itlon
19S5b
0.71
2.22
0.88
1.72
1.05
1.44
1963C 1979d I9a0d
0.78 0.86* 0.79«
0.88 .88
1.05
1.04
1.55
Sulftte Trend
In Surface Hater*
Hendrey
I981d (t ,1 ,
0.68* MS
1.13 +*
1.01 ++
MS
1.00 ++
1.13 +
S»1th tnd
Alexander
+
.
MS
++
*
b Jord»j| «t tl. 1959; bulk depotItloA MUuraMntl
c tlBtull tad FIther 1966; MOdlVled faulk deposition •etMreaenU. tee dlscuision In text
d H40P BO/iltorlng sit**; w*t only iMasurtfMnts
• 4it» *ver«B*d for sites only In e«stern Mortii Carolina In order to be comparable to the Gwbell and Fisher (1966) Mnltorlng network
* foslthe tread significant at p - 0.0$; ++ positive trend significant at p • 0.01
- Negative tread significant at p - 0.05
HS Hot significant
-------
Tree response over time can be assessed through an analysis of
long-term growth patterns by measuring annual ring widths. Changes in
this dendrochronologic record can be statistically analyzed and compared
to changes in stand history, climate, and air pollution. However, this
comparison assumes an adequate record exists. While long-term climato-
logic data are available for correlation, the sarce is not true for
atmospheric deposition. Several studies are using available emissions
data as an indicator of local or regional air quality. Assuming that
certain metals can be used as tracers of emissions, trends in the
concentration of metals in tree rings can be used to track air quality
conditions. Baes and Mclaughlin (1984) have shown a good correlation
between S02 emissions and Fe content in tree rings (Figure 1). Similar
trends for metals mobilized by acidification (e.g., aluminum) may aid in
our understand.ng of forest response to acid deposition on a regional
scale where local source emissions are not implicated.
105
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o
CTl
D)
•^»
D)
z
O
DC
h-
Z
LU
O
Z
o
o
>-
DC
Q
Z
o
DC
6.0
3.0
0.0
S02
IRON
8.0
4.0
0.0
1890 1910
1930 1950
YEAR WOOD FORMED
1970
1990
Figure 1. Iron concentration in short-leaf pine tree rings at Cades Cove, Tennessee and
estimated SO,-, emissions from within 900 km of Cades Cove (adapted from Baes
and Mclaughlin 1984)
w
m
to
O
z
<•-«
o
CD
H
m
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EMISSION INVENTORY REOIJ I RE.MEMTS IN SUPPORT OF ACID
DEPOSITION ASSESSMENTS AND POL I'CY. DEVELOPMENT
by
Chuck Elk ins
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
401 M Street, S.1V.
Washington, D.C.. 20460
(Unable to attend; abstract and paper were not submitted)
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SESSION 4: RELATED EMISSION INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES
Chairman: Ed Trexier
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Planning and Environment
Mai I Stop FE-13, Boom B-120
'.,'ashlncton, D.C, 20545
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DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CANADIAN ACID DEPOSITION EMISSION INVENTORY
Frank Vena
Environmental Protection Service
Environment Canada
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, N.C.
December 3-4, 1984
109
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ABSTRACT
An overview of Canadian activities to develop emission inventories
for the acid deposition program is presented. Initial efforts emphasized the
development of emission inventories of acid-causing pollutants to assess the
importance of emission sources in the long range transport of air pollutants.
The information obtained was also used in simple atmospheric models simulating
the transport, transformation and deposition, predominantly of 502-
Currently Canada is developing: a) comprehensive inventories of defined
temporal and spatial resolution to input to more complex modn"is that predict
acid deposition and oxidant concentrations; b) an emission forecasting model
incorporating all major emission sources. We are also maintaining a current
inventory on the major sources of S02-
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INTRODUCTION
The principle objective of the Canadian Long Range Transport of Air
Pollutants (LRTAP) program is to obtain reductions in emissions contributing to
the long range transport of air pollutants in order to reduce environmental
loadings to levels which ecosystems can tolerate. In support of this
objective, considerable Canadian effort has been put into establishing emission
inventories. Such inventories are needed: :
(1) as input to atmospheric models to establish the relationships between
emissions and ambient concentrations and deposition rates;
(2) to assess the relative importance of emission sources for various
pollutants; and,
(3) in order to project the impact of changes in emissions of existing
sources, coupled with contributions that new sources will be making.
The discussion to follow will centre largely on the emission
inventory activities that support atmospheric modelling.
DISCUSSION
Environment Canada has carried out emission inventories of the common
pollutants every two years in cooperation with the provincial agencies since
1970. This includes a detailed emission inventory for S02 used as input to
the atmospheric models that were examined under the United States-Canada
Memorandum of Intent on Transboundary Air Pollution. The information compiled
for point sources includes geographical location, SIC/SCC codes, stack para-
meter data, process data, emission factors, control equipment efficiencies, and
annual emission values. Area sources can be resolved spatially to a 127 km
111
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grid and the file includes information on SIC codes, base quantity data, emis-
sion factors and annual emission values. The information is maintained in the
National Emissions Inventory System.
These inventories are being maintained and expanded to include- other
pollutants relevant to both acid deposition and oxidants to support the
development and testing of an Eulerian atmospheric model in Canada. (The
province of Qrlario, Environment Canada and the Federal Republic of Germany are
co-sponsoring the development of this irodel.) The pollutant species
inventoried for the base year 1980 include SO?, 504, Nf)x, speciated
VOC's, MH3 and particulate matter (alkaline fraction identified separately).
Inventories quantifying the contribution from natural sources of these
pollutant species have been compiled based on generally sparse literature data
and consequently can only be considered as order of magnitude estimates.
Testing and validation of the Eulerian model necessitates that
emission inventories be resolved spatially to a 127 km grid and temporally to
provide diurnal, weekday and weekend variations in emissions. The model will
initially be tested against field observations taken during August 1980. Work
is currently underway in cooperation with provincial agencies to develop
three-hourly profiles for the major point sources in Eastern Canada of S02,
NOXf VOC's and TSP for that time period; typical diurnal, weekday, weekend
and seasonal emission profiles are being developed for area sources for the
base year 1980. Standard procedures for reporting uncertainties in these
inventories will also be examined. This work is scheduled to be completed by
March 1985. The development of a 1984 baseline inventory to support the
analysis of abatement strategies will begin in FY 85/86 and is scheduled for
completion in FY 86/87.
In addition to the inventory activities supporting the modelling
program, other inventory projects are also being done. Future emissions may
increase due to the installation of new sources or an increase in Industrial
production or they may decrease due to a lagging economy. It is important that
112
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these changes be estimated as they may affect concentrations and depositions.
Environment Canada is currently developing an emission forecasting model which
accounts for the major emission sources. The work is being done in collabora-
tion with Statistics Canada who, through their Socio-Economic Resource Frame-
work (SERF) model, can. provide the economic forecasts to drive t'le emissions
database at Environment Canada. This work is scheduled to be completed in FY
85/36. Cans;h is committed to decreasing Eastern Canadian emissions to 2300 kt
SOj by 1994. On-going periodic emission inventories of the major sources of
S02 are being maintained in order to monitor our progress in achieving this
comrni ttient.
CONCLUSION
The Canadian emission inventory activities in support of the LRTAP
program have been summarized. A substantial part of the current and future
effort will be devoted to supplying the data needs of the Eulerian model. Once
this model is operational, the processes that govern the atmospheric transport,
transformation and deposition of pollutants should be better understood. In
this way the Eulerian model can be used to improve the simpler LRT models that
are used to generate annual and seasonal source-receptor relationships and
which are more practical for assessing abatement strategy options.
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EMISSION INVENTORY REQUIREMENTS
FOR DEPOSITION AND REGIONAL AIR QUALITY
MODEL DEVELOPMENT: A SUMMARY
Steven L. Heisler
Environmental Research and Technology, Inc.
696 Virginia Road
Concord, Massachusetts 01742
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
114
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EMISSION INVENTORY REQUIREMENTS
FOR DEPOSITION AND REGIONAL AIR QUALITY
MODEL DEVELOPMENT: A SUMMARY
by: Steven L. Heisler
Environmental Research and Technology, Inc.
696 Virginia Road
Concord, Massachusetts 01/42
ABSTRACT
Although several regional and national emissions inventories have
been prepared, none of them fulfill all of the requirements for
deposition and air quality modeling. They are limited with regard tc
contemporaneity of data, pollutants included, spatial and temporal
resolution, or data reliability. In order to try to overcome those
limitations, a project is underway to develop procedures to produce
inventories suitable for modeling air quality and deposition in the
contiguous United States and Canada during 1982. The inventory includes
total emitted particulate matter, alkaline particulate matter, primary
sulfate, sulfur dioxide, nitric ox'ide, nitrogen dioxide, ammonia, and
hydrocarbons classified by photochemical reactivity. The nominal spatial
resolution is 100 meters for point sources and one-quarter degree
longitude by one-sixth degree latitude for area sources. Average emission
rates during each of the eight 3-hour time periods of a day have been
estimated for weekdays and weekends in each season. Traceability of the
data to their origin has been maintained during the development to
enable differences between the inventory and other inventories to be
resolved. This traceability also allows the inventory to be updated to
other time periods without major new developmental efforts.
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EMISSION INVENTORY REQUIREMENTS
FOR DEPOSITION AND REGIONAL AIR QUALITY
MODEL DEVELOPMENT: A SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
•••'••cise, accurate emission inventories a^e of great importance in
L ,ively evaluating air quality control strategies. Source-oriented
.,~c 'se pollutant emission rates and atmospheric dispersion charac-
teristics to calculate source contributions at receptors. The precision
and accuracy of those calculations can be no better than those of the
emission information.
Regional and national emission inventories have been prepared for
many parts of the United States and Canada. The most comprehensive
inventories include the National Emissions D?ta System (NEEDS), and
inventories developed for the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE), the
Hultistate Atmospheric Power Production Pollution Study (MAP3S), the
Northeast Corridor Regional Modeling Program (NECRMP), The Memorandum of
Intent on Transboundary Air Pollution (MOI), and the National Acid
Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). None of these existing
inventories completely fulfill all of the needs for regional deposition
and air quality modeling. As recognized by their compilers, each is
limited with respect to contemporaneity of the data, chemical substances
included, jpatial resolution, temporal resolution, or data reliability.
To improve upon the situation, the Electric Power Research
Institute (EPRI) is sponsoring a project to develop and apply procedures
for the compilation of emissions inventories for 1982 for the contiguous
United States and southeastern Canada.
116
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DISCUSSION
The inventory compilation procedures for the project are intended
to satisfy several major requirements in the following areas:
Materials: Total emitted particulate matter, primary sulfate,
alkaline particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, nitric oxide, nitrogen
dioxide, ammonia, and hydrocarbons classified according to photochemical
reactivity.
Time Period: The most recently available point source inventories
are being obtained from NEDS and State agencies. Because some data in
those inventories are older than 1982, State agencies and emitting
facilities are being contacted to obtain mpre recent data for 200 major
point sources of nitrogen and sulfur oxide. Approximately two-thirds of
the point source data is expected to pertain to 1982. The 1982 NEDS
area source inventory is also being used.
Spatial Resolution: Point source locations are nominally resolved
to 100 meters. Area source emissions are estimated by county. To
provide higher geographic resolution, factors are being developed to
allocate country emissions to elements of a one-quarter degree longitude
by one-sixth degree latitude grid system. The factors are based upon
the fraction of county geographic area that falls in each grid element.
Also included are data needed to calculate point source emission injection
height (stark height, diameter, flow rate, and temperature). The nominal
resolution for stack height is 1 foot.
Temporal Resolution: NEDS and State point source inventories
contain annual emission rates. Seasonal, weekly, and daily operating
schedules in those inventories are used to calculate average diurnal
emissions (eight 3-hour time periods) for weekdays and weekends during
each season. The NEDS area source inventory does not include operating
schedules. Therefore, operating schedules for each area source category
are being developed to calculate emissions with the same resolution as
point sources. For example, 1982 heating degree days in each county
during each season are used to calculate average seasonal emission rates
for residential fuel use. :
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Missing Values: Data for some point sources in the NEDS and State
inventories are not complete. Facilities and State agencies are being
contacted to obtain most missing data for 200 plants. When possible,
typical values are being inserted for missing location (city or county
centroid), exhaust flow rate (based upon operating rate and engineering
practice), exhaust temperature (based upon type of process and emission
control device), control device removal efficiency (based upon type of
control device), and fuel sulfur and ash content (based upon type of
fuel) for other point sources.
Erroneous Data: A series of 90 tests is applied to data for each
point source emission point to identify suspect values. The tests
compare values to normal ranges and check the consistency among different
quantities. The values tested include exhcust parameters, locations,
control efficiencies, operating rates, and reported emission rates.
Most suspect data are being corrected for 200 major plants through
contacts with State agencies and plant operators. Test results are
recorded in the inventory to evaluate data accuracy.
Data Precision: Point source emission rate precisions are being
estimated by applying propogation-of-errors methods to the calculations
and measurements used to determine them.
Data Source Documentation: The origin of each value is recorded in
the inventory. When a value is changed, the origin of the new value is
recorded, and a record of the change is automatically produced. Because
this information is maintained, comparisons can be made with other
inventories, and differences resulting from different sources of
information can be resolved.
Data Retention: All information used to compile the inventory has
been retained in it. This allows it to be improved in two ways. Firstly,
data older than 1982 can be identified and replaced with 1982 data as
they become available. Secondly, procedures used to calculate various
quantities in the inventory, such as diurnal emissions from annual
emissions, can be changed when better procedures are developed. The
revised procedures can then be applied to the data to recalculate those
quantities.
118
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DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATURAL SOURCES EMISSIONS INVENTORY
Daniel L. Albritton
Aeronomy Laboratory
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Boulder, Colorado 80303
Presented at:
First Annual Acid Deposition Emission Inventory Symposium
Raleigh, North Carolina
December 3-4, 1984
120
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DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATURAL SOURCES EMISSIONS INVENTORY
by: Daniel'L. Albritton
Aeronomy Laboratory
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
Boulder, Colorado 80303
ABSTRACT
Both natural and man-made sources influence precipitation acidity.
The former have been considered generally to be small, but the
uncertainties in these natural source strength estimates are very large.
The research of the Natural Sources Task Group is addressing these
uncertainties by new instrument development, technique intercomparison,
and additional measurements. As a result of these efforts, a large part
of the existing body of data on biogenic sulfur emissions must be revised
upward. New measurements in the summer of 1985 will test the laboratory-
determined correction factors. Lightning appears to be a negligible
source of nitrate to the northeast, based on an estimate of the global
lightning-produced nitrate deposition patterns that have been established
by data from remote areas. Airborne dust from unpaved roads appears to
be a significant source of neutralizing material and hence needs to be
better quantified. Further work is also required before the roles of
biogenic nitrogen and ammonia in acid precipitation can be considered to
be established.
121
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DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATURAL SOURCES EMISSIONS INVENTOR/
INTRODUCTION
It is well known that both natural and man-made sources release
chemical species that can modify acidic deposition. If a controlled
reduction in man-made emissions were to occur, natural sources will
continue to contribute to acidic deposition. As a result, the benefits
that would be anticipated from such a controlled reduction could be
erroneously optimistic vf natural sources make a significant contribution
to the present total acidic budget. Therefore, the research of the
Natural Sources Task Group of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment
crogram is focused on one key policy question:
Are the natural emissions of acid precursors and alkaline
materials significant relative to man-made emissions?
The natural emissions that are most relevant to precipitation
acidity are those of sulfur, nitrogen, and alkaline materials. These
sources have several general characteristics that sh=ipe the approach
required to define their significance. First, there is great variety:
e.g., terrestrial and oceanic biogenic activity, lightning, and airborne
soil and water aerosols. Second, the sources can have large spatial
extent and temporal variations. Third, while broadly distributed, the
fluxes are generally low at a given site, thereby requiring state-of-
the-art measurements. Consequently, the research projects of the Natural
Sources Task Group have involved survey searches to identify the major
sources, rigorous laboratory and field assessments of the reliability of
existing data sets, instrument and technique development, and additional
fiald measurements.
122
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DISCUSSION
Since the source identification, measurement technique and
reliability, and the extent of existing data vary considerably for the
various species, the approach has been different for each,
Sulfur
Natural sulfur emissions from terrestrial and tidal areas have been
studied rather extensively by several investigators, most notably in the
SURE study in the U.S. southeast. The Task Group research focuses on an
assessment of the reliability of that data set. Current improved
standards, preconcentration techniques, and sampling methods are being
compared to those used in the SURE study and are resulting in an upper
revision of those earlier flux values. These revisions will be checked
by side-by-side measurements in the southeast in the summer of 1935.
The influx of sulfur species from oceanic sources is being examined
in two ways. First, direct measurements of the production of sulfur-
containing species have been made in nutrient-rich oceanic areas. These
provide estimates of the source potential. Secondly, the influx of
airborne sulfur species into the southeast from the Gulf is being examined
directly. The first study was in the summer of 1984 and the next will
be in 1985.
Nitrogen
The major sources of natural nitrogen compounds appear to be biogenic
emissions from soils and production by lightning, both of which are only
crudely known, largely due to lack of measurement methods. Thus, the
Task Group has focused on the development of sensitive instruments and
flux-measurement techniques applicable to biogenic nitrogen emissions.
The field trials of two methods - box and gradient - will occur in the
summer of 1985. For lightning, the approach has been to develop an
estimate that is independent of the current one, which has relied on
estimates of production per stroke and stroke frequency. The Task Group
has examined the deposition of nitrate in extremely remote oceanic
areas, where lightning is likely to be the only source, and has determined
a global , tghtning-produced nitrate deposition pattern. For the U.S.,
this independent estimate supports the earlier assessment, that this
source is a minor contribution to east-coast nitrate deposition.
123
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Alkaline Aerosols
So little is known about the potential of alkaline aerosols to
neutralize acidity in precipitation that the present Task Group activity
has been to try to better define the problem. For example, an assessment
has been made of the potential contribution of dust from unpaved roads
to airborne alkalinity. The data suggest that such material, as well as
that from tilled fields, is a significant regional source and hence must
be bette ,uantified. Lastly, ammonia emissions are being addressed by
the Task Group. With the initial goal of identifying major sources,
ammonia measurement techniques are being developed and tested.
CONCLUSIONS
Biogenic sulfur emissions are likely to be larger than original^
thought, based on intercomparisons of new techniques with those used in
the earlier investigations. Further lab tests and field measurements in
1985 will establish the revised emission values. Ocean-to-land influx
of sulfur compounds appears to be small, but a recheck is scheduled in
1985. Lightning contributes negligibly to northeastern nitrate. Biogenic
nitrogen emissions remain poorly quantified and an assessment must await
additional field measurements. Dust from unpaved roads is a significant
source of airborne alkaline materials and deserved better quantification.
124
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SESSION 5: PANEL DISCUSSIONS
Moderator: John Fink, Chief
Request and Information Section
.National Air Data Branch (Ml-14)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
125
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PANEL DISCUSSIONS
EMISSION INVENTORY APPLICATIONS
Joan Novak, EPA
EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT
Jirr Homolya, Radian Corporation
HISTORICAL EMISSION INVENTORIES
Gerhard Gschwandtner, Pacific Environmental Services
QUALITY ASrURANCE AND ESTIMATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
Carre,i Benkovitz, Brookhaven National Laboratory
126
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APPEIOIX
ATTENDEES
127
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1ST ANNUAL ACID DEPOSITION EMISSIONS INVENTORY SYMPOSIUM
LIST OF ATTENDEES
Betty Abramson
U.S. EnvfronmentaI Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mai I Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5694
Dr. Daniel L. Albritton
Aeronomy Laboratory/NOAA/ERL
U.S. Department of Commerce
325 Broadway, R/E/AL6
Boulder, CO 80303
303/497-5785
Thomas C. A I I en
N,C. Division of Environmental Management
P.O. Box 27687
Raleigh, NC 27611
919/733-7015
Wi I Iiam R. Alsop
North Carolina State University
Acid Deposition Program
1509 Varsity Or ive
Raleigh, NC 27606
919/737-3520
Dr. David G. Arey
Southern Illinois University
Department of Geography SIU-C
Carbondale, IL 62901
618/536-3375
Richard S. Artz
NOAA/AIr Resources Laboratory
8060 13th St., Room 929B, Gramax Bldg.
Silver Spring, MD 20910
301/427-7295
Thomas R. Ballou
Environmental Protection Agency, Region II
26 Federal Plaza, Room 1005
New York, NY 10278
212/264-2517
Syd Barton
Ontario Research Foundation
Shertden Park Research Community
MIssIsseuga, Ontario, Canada L5K 1B3
416/822-4111
128
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Dr. Ann Bartuska, Program Coordinator
Acid Deposition Program
North Carolina State University
1509 Varsity Drive
Raleigh, NC 27606
919/737-3520
Dr. P.V. Bates
University of British Columbia
Department of Medicine
2211 Westbrook Mai I
Vancouver, Canada V6T1W5
604/228-'139
Carmen Benkovitz
Brcokhaven National Laboratory
Building 51
Upton, NY 11973
516/282-4.^5
Christopher Ber. sen
UtII ity Data Institute
2011 I Street, N.W. #700
Washington, D.C. 20006
202/466-3660 •
John Bosch, Chief
National Air Data Branch
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mai I Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5582
Laurel J. Carlson
Massachusetts Department of Environmental
DualIty Eng ineer Ing
1 Winter Street
Boston, MA 02108
617/292-5773-
Terry L., Clark
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Mai I Drop 80
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-3372
Dr. Charles Comlskey, Director
Quantitative Environmental Analysis Division
Science Applications International Corp.
800 Oak Ridge Turnpike
Oak Ridge, TN 37830
615/482-9031
129
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Dr. Ursula M. CowgI I I
The Dow Chemical Company
2030 WH Dow Center
Midland, Ml 48640
517/636-1735
Dr. Ellis Cowl Ing
School of Forest Resources
North Carolina State University
Box 8001
Raleigh, NC 27695-8001
919/737-2883
Jim DeMocker, ANR-443
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air, Noise, and Radiation
401 M Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C.. 20460
202/382-5580
J1m Dickerman
Radian Corporation
P.O. Box 13000
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
919/541-9100
David Dunbar
PEI Associates, Inc.
505 S. Duke Street, Suite 503
Durham, NC 27701
919/688-6338
John Fink, Chief
Request and Information Section
National Air Data Branch
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Mall Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5694
Phi I ip Galvln
New York State Department of
Environmental Consarvatlon
50 Wolf Road
Albany, NY 12233
518/457-0809
WllI!am GiI I
Texas Air Control Board
6330 Highway 290 E.
Austin, TX 78723
512/451-5711
130
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Daryl Grassick
Massachusetts Department of Environmental
Qua! Ity EngIneerIng
1 Winter Street
Boston, MA 02108
617/292-5594
Gerhard Gschwandtner
Pacific. Environmental Services, Inc.
1905 Chapel HI I I Road
Durham, NC 27707
919/493-3536
J. Wick Havens, Chief
Air Quality Analysis Section
Pennsylvania Department of Environmental
Resources, Air Quality Control
P.O. Box 2063, Fulton Building, IS.tti Floor
200 North Third Street
Harrisburg, PA 17120 ,
717/787-4310
Steve Helsler
Environment?! Research and Technology
696 Virgin I a Road
Concord, MA 01742
617/489-3750
David D. Herlong
Carolina Power & Light Co.
HEEC Rt. 1, Box 327
New Hi I I, NC 27562
919/362-3285
David Ho I den
National 'Acid Precipitation
Assessment Program
722 Jackson Place, NW
Washington, D.C. 20506
202/395-5773
Ben D. Holt
Argonne National Laboratory
Bldg. 205 - CMT, 9700 S. Cass Ave.
Argonne, IL 60439
312/972-4347
James B. Homo!ya
Radian Corporation
P.O. Box 13000
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
131
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Bob Honea
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
P.O. Box X
Oak Ridge, TN 37830
615/574-5932
H.J. Huldy
Division for Technology for Society TNO
P.O. Box 217
2600 AE DELFT
Nether lands
Victoria L. HuI I
Edison Electric Institute
1111 19th Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20036
202/828-0831
Fu-Tien Jenq
University of North Carolina
at Chapel Ml I I
M-6 Kingswood Apts.
Chapel Hill, NC 27514
Terrence Juchnowski
New Jersey Department of
Environmental Protection
CN027
Trenton, NJ 08625
609/292-5612
Brian G. Katz
U.S. Geological Survey
208 Carroll Bldg., 8600 LaSalle Rd.
Towson, MD 21204
301/828 -1535
Robert C. Kaufman
f'etro Washington Council of Governments
1875 Eye St., NW, Suite 200
Washington, D.C. 20006
Stephen Kiel
Maryland Air Management Administration
201 W. Preston Slreet
Balti.rore, MD 21201
301/383-3245
Sue KImbrough
U.S. Env ironrrental Protection Agency
f€AD-NADB
Mai I Drop 14
Research Trtangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5694
132
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WllI em J. Kolstee
Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning
and En i Ironment
P.O. Box 450
Leldendam, Netherlands 2260MB
Duane Knudson
Argonne National Laboratory
EES-Bldgt 362, 9700 S. Cass Avenue
Argonne, IL 60439
312/972-5102
Richard Larsen
U.S. Department of Energy
376 Hudson Street
New York, NY 10014
212/620-3524
Phil Ip Lapat
Newmont Services
Box 310
Danbury, CT 06810
Barbara Ley
Ontario Min.Istry of the Environment
880 Bay Street
Toronto, Ontario
Canada M5S 178
416/965-5068
Robert A. Lott
Tennessee VaI ley Authority
449 Multipurpose Bui I'd Ing
Muscle Shoals, AL 35660
205/386-2033
Gerald W. Lowery
SAIC
1710 Goodrldge Drive
McLean, VA 22102
703/821-4555
Tom Lukow
Department of Energy
P.O. Box 880, Collins Ferry Road
Morgantown, WVA 26505
304/291-4540
Arch A. MacQueen
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Air Management Technology Branch (MD-14)
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5585
133
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Charles 0. Mann
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mai I Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5694
Ronald J. Marnlclo
Carnegie-Meilon University/Center for
Energy and Environmental Studies
Scalfe Hall 318/Frew Street/SchenIey Park
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
412/578-3873
E.L. Martinez
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mall Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5585
ChrIs Mason
TRC Environmental Consultants, inc.
800 Connecticut Boulevard
East Hartford, CT
203/289-8631
Mike MaxwelI
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Industrial Environmental Research Laboratory
Mail Drop 61
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-3091
Stephen V. McBrien
Th.e MITRE Corporation
1820 Do I ley Madison Boulevard
NfcLean, VA 22102
703/883-7685
Gordon Mclnnes
Warren Spring Laboratory
Department of Trade & Industry
Gunnels Wood Road
Stevenage, Hertfordshire
England SG12BX
(0438) 313388
Robert MIssen
Pacific Power & Light
920 SW Sixth Avenue
Portland, OR 97204
505/243-7048
134
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J. David Mob ley
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Industrial Environmental Research Laboratory
Mai I Drop 61
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-2612
Erie Mosher
Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources
P.O. Box 7921
Madison, Wl 53707
608/266-3010
Joan Novak
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory
MalP Drop 80
Research Triangle Park, iC 27711
919/541-4545
WIII lam OlIver
Systems Applications, Inc.
101 Lucas Valley Road
San Rafael, CA 94903
415/472-4011
Richard J. Olson
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
P.O. Box X, Bldg. 1505
Oak Ridge, T.N 37831
615/524-7819
Richard H. Osa
WI scons In Electric Power Company
231 W. Michigan - TSB3A
Milwaukee, W! 53203
414/277-2159
Marc Papal
Radian Corporation
7655 Old Sprlnghouse Road
McLean, VA 22102
703/734-2600
Diana M. Parker
Kentucky Department of Environmental Protection
Division of Air Pollution Control
18 Rellly Rd., Ft. Boon Plaza
Frankfort, KY 40601
502/564-3382
135
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William W. Parks, Division Director
State Air Pollution Control Board
9th St. Office Bldg., Room 801
Richmond, VA 23219
804/768-5474
Dr. Farn Parungo
NOAA/ERL
R/E 2
Boulder, CO 80303
303/497-6460
Edward H. Pechan
E.H. Pechan A Associates, Inc.
5537 Hempstead Way
Springfield, VA 22151
703/642-1120
Steve Perry
North Carol In a NRCD
Division of Environmental Management
P.O. Box 27687
Raleigh, NC 27611
919/733-7015
Roger Pfaff
EPA Region IV
345 Court I and Street
Atlanta, GA 30365
404/881-7654
David PowelI
Battelle Northwest
2400 Stevens
Rlchland, WA 99352
509/375-3388
John M. Pratapas
Gas Research Institute
8600 W. L/yn Mawr Ave.
Chicago, IL 60631
312/399-8301
Brian H. Price
The MITRE Corporation
1820 Dolley Madison Boulevard
McLean, VA 22102
703/883-7648
136
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Frances R. Prosser
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region IX
215 Fremont Street
San Francisco, CA 94105
415/974-7656
NevlIle Reid
Concord Scientific Corp.
2 TIppett Road
Downsvlew
Ontario, Canada M3H 2V2
416/630-6331
John F. R Ichards
Duke Un iversity
Department of History
6727 College Station
Durham, NC 27709
919/684-3966
Judah L. Rose
ICF, Inc.
1850 K Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20902
202/862-1100
Pam Saunders
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
NADB/MD-14
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5694
Dr. V.K. Saxena
'North Carolina Stale University
Department ofi Marine, Earth &
Atmospheric Sciences
Box 8208
Raleigh, NC 27695
919/737-2210
Ralph Scott
Department of Energy
P.O. Box 880, Col I Ins Ferry Road
Morgantown, WVA 26505
304/291-4540
Thomas A. SelIga
Ohio State University
2015 Nell Avenue
Columbus, OH 43210
614/427-076'!
137
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Frederick M. Se!lars
GCA/Technoiogy Division
213 BurlIngton Road
Bedford, MA 01730
617/275-5444
JIm Serne
Pacific Environmental Services
1905 Chapel HI I I Road
Durham, NC 27707
919/493-3536
Roderick Shaw
Atmospheric Environment Service
4905 Duffer In Street
Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4
416/66^-4885
Sarah J. Simon
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
JFK Federal Bui Id ing/ATS 2311
Boston, MA 02203
617/223-4861
Betty Sorrel I
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Off'ce of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mai I Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5582
J. Richard S_/ulen
Technical £ Management Services, Inc.
P.O. Box 321
Narberth, PA 19072
215/667-0230
James Souther I and
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mall Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5575
Laurence S. Spelgel
Southern Company Services
P.O. Box 2625
Birmingham, AL 35202
205/877-7279
138
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Jake Summers
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Mall Drop 14
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
919/541-5694
Michael F. Szabo
PEI Associates, Inc.
11499 Chester Road
Cincinnati, OH 45246
513/782-4829
Douglas Toothman
Engineering Science
10521 Rosehaven Street
Fairfax, VA 22030
703/591-7575
Ed Trexler
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Planning and Environment
Mall Stop FE-13, Room B-120
Washington, D.C. 20545
703/353-2683
Virginia P. Tucker
Lee County Schools System
P.O. Box 2275
Sanford, NC
919/775-3350
C. Veldt
Division of Technology for Society TNO
P.O. Box 342
7300 AH APELDOORN
The Netherlands
Frank Vena, Chief
Pollution Data Analysis Division
Environment Canada
Place VIcent Massey, 12th Floor
Ottawa, Ontario
Canada K1A 1C8
Eva C. Voldner
Atmospheric Environment Service
4905 Duffer In St.
Downsvlew, Ontario
416/667-4788
139
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Ronnle Watk!nr
Alabama Department of Environmental
Management - Air Division
1751 Federal Drive
Montgomery, AL 36130
205/271-7361
Joel J. Watson
JRB Associates
8404 Glenwcod Avenue
Raleigh, NC 27612
919/782-8235
Boris Weisrmn
MEP Co.
7050 Woodbine Av-nue
Markharn, Ontar io
Canada L3R 4G8
Arthur S. Werner
GCA/Technology Division
500 Eastown Drive
Chapel Mil I, NC 27514
919/489-6550
Thomas F. WolfInger
The MITRE Corouration
1820 Do I ley '-lad I son Boulevard
McLean, VA 22102
703/883-7661
Dave Yap
Air Resources Branch
Environment Ontario
880 Bay Street
Toronto, Ontario
Canada
4^6/965-5068
140
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