EPA 902/4-77-001
JANUARY, 1977
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LAND USE INVENTORY
UPDATE AND PROJECTION
UTICA-ROME AIR QUALITY
MAINTENANCE AREA
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Environmental .Protection Agency Region II
Air Branch: Environmental Programs Division
26 Federal Plaza
New York, New York 1OOO7
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
I. REPORT NO.
EPA 902/4-77-001
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSIOI*NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Land Use Inventory Update and Projection
Utica-Rome Air Quality Maintenance Area (AQMA)
5. REPORT DATE
January 1977
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
Stephen S. Olney
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Herkimer-Oneida Counties Comprehensive Planning Prograjn
800 Park Avenue
Utica, Mew York 13501
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-02-2305
12. SPONSO....JG AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Environmental Protection Agency Region II
Air Branch: Environmental Programs Division
26 Federal Plaza
New York. New York 10007
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
The Utica-Rome AQMA consists of 1 4 Mohawk Valley towns and cities in Herkimer and
Oneida Counties, New York. Land uses in the area were inventoried in 1 968 as part of the
Statewide Land Use Matrual Resource Inventory (LUNR) . The present report updates the
1968 inventory to 1975 based upon aerial photo measurements of a sample of kilometer
squares. Urban land uses are projected to 1980, 1985, 1990 and 2000. This information
will be used by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to project
future air quality.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS C. COS AT I Field/Group
Utica-Rome
Air Quality Maintenance
Land Use Inventory
Land Use Projection
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEME_NT
Available from National Technical Information
Service, 5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, Virginia 221 51
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
Unclassified
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
50
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
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EPA 902/4-77-001
LAND USE INVENTORY UPDATE AND PROJECTION
UTICA-ROME AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
By
Herkimer-Oneida Counties Comprehensive Planning Program
800 Park Avenue
Utica, New York 13501
CONTRACT NO. 68-02-2305
FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT
Prepared For
Environmental Protection Agency Region II
Air Branch: Environmental Programs Division
Project Officer: George Kerr
26 Federal Plaza
New York, New York 10007
-------
This air pollution report is issued by Region II, Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, to assist state and local air pollution control agencies
in carrying out their program activities. Copies of this, report may
be obtained, for a nominal cost, from the National Technical Informa-
tion Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22151 .
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
the Herkimer-Oneida Counties Comprehensive Planning Program,
Utica, New York in fulfillment of contract no. 68^02-2305. This re-
port has been reviewed by the Air Branch, EPA and approved for
publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily
reflect the views and policies of the Environmental Protection Agency,
nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute
endorsement of recommendation for use.
Region II Publication No. EPA 9Q2/4-77-001
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
D!'RPOSE 1
NEW YORK STATE'S LAND USE & NATURAL RESOURCES INVENTORY 1
PROJECTED URBAN LAND NEEDS 4
DISTRIBUTION OF NEW RESIDENTIAL LAND 12
COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LAND NEEDS 16
Past Trends 16
Ratio Formula 17
Population 18
Labor Force 18
CORRELATION OF EMPLOYMENT & LAND USE METHODOLOGY 19
Overview 19
Labor Force Projections 19
Labor Force Projections - Verification 21
Employment Projections 21
Employment Projections - Verification 24
Employment by Category 26
LAND USE PROJECTIONS 26
Commercial and Service Land Use Projections 26
Industrial Land Use Projections 28
ANALYSIS AND IMPLICATIONS 31
iii
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LIST OF TABLES
1 Population Projection, Herkimer & Oneida Counties, N.Y 3
2 Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits
Utica-Rome Air Quality Maintenance Area 5
3 Projected Households, Utica-Rome SMSA, 1970-2000 6
4 Projected Population & Households, Herkimer & Oneida Counties . 7
5 Estimated Housing Units 1975 Based on Construction Activity 1970-74 .... 8
6 Kilometer Squares Altered by Land Use Update & Projection
Utica-Rome AQMA 9
7 Housing Density - LUNR Survey in Utica-Rome AQMA 10
8 Urban Land Use Changes 1968-1975, Utica Rome AQMA 11
9 Distribution of Housing Units Among Residential Land Use Classes, 1975
Utica-Rome Air Quality Maintenance Area 14
10 Hectares of New Residential Land Needed Per Five Year Period
Utica-Rome Air Quality Maintenance Area 15
11 Population & Labor Force 1960-2000, Utica-Rome SMSA 20
12 Labor Force as a Percent of Population Verification, Utica-Rome SMSA ... .22
13 Labor Force S Employment 1970-2000, Utica-Rome SMSA 23
14 Employment to Population Ratio Verification 25
15 Employment by Category 1960-2000 27
16 Future Commercial/Service Land Use Requirements 29
17 Future Industrial Land Use Requirements 30
18 Projected Total Urban Land, 1975-2000, Utica-Rome AQMA 32
19 Projected Urban Land Uses, 1975-2000, Utica-Rome AQMA 33
20 Selected Public S Semi-Public Uses, Utica-Rome AQMA 1968 & 1975 34
21 Public Schools in the Utica-Rome AQMA, 1976 35
22 Location of Other Major Land Uses in the Utica-Rome AQMA, 1976 36
23 Point Sources - Particulate Emissions, Utica-Rome AQMA 37
iv
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SUMMARY
The Utica-Rome AQMA consists of 14 Mohawk Valley towns and cities
in Herkimer and Oneida Counties, New York. Land uses in the area
were inventoried in 1968 as part of the Statewide Land Use Natural
Resource Inventory (LUNR) . The present report updates the 1968 in-
ventory to 1975 based upon aerial photo measurements of a sample of
kilometer squares. Urban land uses are projected to 1980, 1985, 1990
and 2000.
The report shows that if the 1970-1974 experience is continued into the
future, in a five-year period 3,545 new housing units will be constructed
in the 14 communities. These will require development of 308 hectares
of land. New commercial and service uses will require 122 hectares.
Industry will require 19 hectares.
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LAND USE INVENTORY UPDATE & PROJECTION
UTICA-ROME AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
PURPOSE
As its part in the development of an Air Quality Maintenance Plan, the Herkimer-
Oneida Counties Comprehensive Planning Program contracted with the Environ-
mental Protection Agency to provide the State of New York Department of Environ-
mental Conservation with a Land Use Inventory of the 14 communities in the AQMA
for 1975, and projections of urban land use in the region to 1980, 1985, 1995, and
2000. The land use inventory consists of an update of the 1968 Land Use and Natu-
ral Resource Inventory carried out on a sampling basis, plus projections of urban
land needs based upon the 1975 Population Projections prepared by the New York
State Economic Development Board. The data compiled in this project was delivered
to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation on April 30, 1976.
It consists of coding sheets. Each coding sheet represents a kilometer square in
the statewide Natural Resources Inventory grid. Coding sheets were provided only
for those kilometer squares in which past land use changes were measured, or those
in which urban development was projected to take place. Land use changes were
recorded by hectare (2.47 acre units) . The first set of coding sheets indicates all
of the significant conversion of rural to urban land which occurred between 1968
and 1975. The second set of coding sheets shows projected conversion for the pro-
jection years 1980, 1985, 1995 and 2000.
The report which follows discusses in further detail the preparation of this informa-
tion and summarizes past and projected land use changes.
NEW YORK STATE'S LAND USE & NATURAL RESOURCES INVENTORY
The land use and natural resources inventory prepared by New York State for the
Utica-Rome area in 1968, was a massive aerial photo interpretation project in which
land areas in various uses were identified and marked on U.S.C.S. 1\ minute sheet
overlays, and so called "point" data was identified and coded by UTM 1 kilometer
grid location. The land use area information was measured and coded to the same
1 kilometer grid. This data was later placed in a computer record so that various
kinds of summaries and analyses could be made.
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- 2 -
In order to provide a land use data base for the Utica-Rome AQMA model, the re-
gional planning program obtained a set of LUNR overlay sheets for all of the ~1\
minute quadrangles needed to cover the AQMA, and a computer printout for each
town and city in the AQMA. The region also obtained the most current NYS DOT
up-dated planimetric 1\ minute sheets corresponding to these overlays. The pro-
gram also obtained 1975 aerial photography of the AQMA at the same scale as the
planimetric maps and overlays. In order to facilitate further analysis of develop-
ing areas, the program also obtained 400 ft./inch photo enlargements for selected
parts of the AQMA.
In order to provide a measure of residential density, a field check of residential
areas measured in the LUNR survey, was carried out and a count made in each
sample area of housing units per hectare for the high density, medium density,
and low density residential categories (Table 7) .
The kilometer grid and air quality maintenance area boundaries were first marked
on the NYS DOT 1\ minute planimetric sheets covering the AQMA. Then, by map
inspection, staff identified locations where significant land use changes were
known to have taken place since 1968. Such areas were marked for detailed inspec-
tion. These included areas where new commercial or industrial development had
taken place, where new tract housing or apartments had been constructed, or where
urban renewal projects were underway. Using the 1975 aerial photography, these
key areas were examined and the urban land use changes from 1968 to 1975 were
marked on an overlay.. The extent of these changes were then measured and com-
pared with the 1968 LUNR computer printout for each grid square. A new coding
sheet was filled out indicating the change in land use code from 1968 to 1975. A
summary of the changes noted through this process was made on a town basis, and
later used in assigning projected land use changes. Some 70 kilometer squares
were initially updated as a part of this process. In some cases, field checks were
made to determine what new uses were actually in place. This land use update
procedure attempted to identify all locations where significant land use changes
had taken place. Because of time and money limitations, it did not attempt to re-
cord all conversions to urban land in the region. Later, when projected urban
land needs were assigned to kilometer squares, additional kilometer squares were
measured and adjustments made in the 1975 inventory. Table 6 shows, by town,
the location of the 97 kilometer squares updated to 1975 in the course of making
projections, and the 124 kilometer squares included in the projection to 2000.
The projection process is discussed in the section which follows. Following a pro-
jection of urban land uses and their assignment to locations in the AQMA, new cod-
ing sheets were prepared for each kilometer square where changes were'reported.
On single coding sheets, the changes projected for 1980, 1985, 1995 and 20QO were
shown. The projected changes were summarized by town and that summary is in-
cluded in this report. The coding sheets for both the land use update and the pro-
jection were transmitted to NYS DEC April 30, 1976.
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- 3 -
TABLE I
POPULATION PROJECTION, HERKIMER 6ONEIDA COUNTIES, N.Y,
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Herkimer
67.633
68,187
67,715
67,300
66,832
66,101
65,362
Oneida
273,037
269,319
265,747
264,324
264,238
261,933
258,564
SMSA
340,670
337,506
333,462
331,624
331,070
328,034
323,926
Source: NYS Economic Development Board, 1975 (Preliminary)
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PROJECTED URBAN LAND NEEDS
The 1975 projections of the New York State Economic Development Board for the
Utica-Rome SMSA indicate a gradual loss of population through the year 2000.
The 1970 Census reported the population of 340,670 in the Utica-Rome SMSA. Sub-
sequent population estimates have indicated a reduction since that time. The New
York State Department of Health estimated the regional population at 338,800 on
July 1, 1974. The New York State Economic Development Board estimated the re-
gional population at 337,506 in 1975 (Table 1) . The state projections indicate a
reaional reduction to 334,000 in 1980, 332,000 in 1985, 331,000 in 1990, 328,000
in 1995, and 324,000 in 2000.
Such a population trend does not preclude future urbanization and new construc-
tion. For example, during the period when the estimators showed a loss of popula-
tion in the region of 3,164 persons, SMSA building permit records plus estimates
show the creation of 5,153 new housing units (Table 2) . During the same period,
new commercial and industrial land uses were also created. Clearly, much of this
ne.v, construction represents replacement of older residential, commercial and in-
dustrial facilities. Under normal economic conditions such replacement can be
expected to continue even though there is a decline in total regional population.
During the five-years 1970-1974, 4,660 new housing units were authorized by
building permits issued by communities in the Utica-Rome SMSA. The State De-
partment of Commerce has made an allowance for construction in non-permit issu-
ing areas and estimates that 5,153 housing units were constructed in that period.
This new construction took place during a period of high interest rates and slack
economic conditions. These factors plus the estimated regional out-migration of
population suggests that construction during this period can be considered a
minimum level of activity for projection purposes. More favorable economic condi-
tions or a shift in population patterns would result in a much higher level of new
construction.
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TABLE 2
HOUSING UNITS AUTHORIZED BY BUILDING PERMITS
UTICA-ROME AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
Frankfort
Schuyler
Deer fie Id
Floyd
Kirkland
Clinton
Lee
Marcy
New Hartford
NY Mills
Paris
Rome City
Trenton
Town
Village
Town
Village
Town
Village
Village
Town
Holland Patent Village
Utica City
Westmoreland
Whitestown -
TOTAL
Percent of
Oriskany
Whitesboro
Yorkville
1
SMSA
SMSA Estimate 1
1970
21
-
-
-
16
1
-
14
-
3
28
-
546
2
486
22
2
2
2
,145
71.1
,610
1971
18
-
16
-
-
19
2
-
28
205
1
14
-
161
2
383
23
9
4
2
887
80.2
1,106
1972
18
2
9
12
-
18
3
-
7
65
1
5
-
343
2
151
30
11
10
687
79,1
868
1973
25
2
20
-
-
65
4
-
-
54
-
65
-
144
-
69
30
10
2
1
491
64.7
759
1974
20
-
-
-
-
23
1
-
13
41
1
16
-
252
-
163
22
7
-
2
561
69.3
810
Total Percent of AQMA
102)
4)106
45
12
-
157)
n)168
-
62
365)
6)499
128)
-
1,446
6
1,252
127
39)
18)64
7)
3,787
73.5
5,153
2.
1.
0.
4.
1.
13.
38.
0.
33.
3.
1.
100.
8
2
3
4
6
2
2
1
1
4
7
0
Adjusted Allocation
180
91
10
17
45
81
70
483
17
1,186
84
980
116
185
3,545
I
tn
I
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TABLE 3
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLDS, UTICA-ROME SMSA, 1970-2000
County SMSA
Year
1Q70
1975
1980
1985
lyaO
1995
2000
Herkimer
21,406
22,523
23,447
24,321
25,084
25,384
25,600
Oneida
82,080
86,051
90,105
94,431
97,677
99,328
100,667
Total
103,486
108,574
113,552
118,752
122,761
124,712
126,267
Change
-
5,088
4,978
5,200
4,009
1,951
1,555
NYS Economic Development Board, 1976 (preliminary)
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TABLE 4
PROJECTED POPULATION & HOUSEHOLDS, HERKIMER & ONEIDA COUNTIES
Herkimer
Census
1970
75
80
85
90
95
2000
Population
67,633
68,187*
67.715
67,300
66,832
66,101
65,362
Persons/HH
3.12
2.97**
2.86
2.73
2.60
2 55****
2.50****
Households
21,406
22,959***
23,677
24,652
25,704
25,922
26,145
Percent Change
7.3
3.1
4.1
4.3
0.8
0.9
Oneida
Census
1970
75
80
85
90
95
2000
Population
273,037
269,319*
265,747
264,324
264,238
261,933
258,564
Persons/HH
Households
3.16
2.97
2.86**
2.73
2.60
2 55****
2.50****
82,080
90,680***
92,919
96,822
101,630
102,718
103,426
Percent Change
2.5
4.2
5.0
1.1
0.7
Herkimer-Oneida
Census
1970
75
80
85
90
95
2000
Households
103,486
113,639
115,596
121,474
127,334
128,640
129,571
New Households
10,153
2,957
4,878
5,860
1,306
931
*NYS Economic Development Board 1975 Preliminary Projections
**Current Population Reports P-25-607
***Calculated
****Extension of Census Projection
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TABLE 5
ESTIMATED HOUSING UNITS 1975 BASED ON CONSTRl CTION ACTIVITY 197<-74
Frankfort
Schuyler
Deerfield
Floyd
Kirkland
Lee
Marcy
New Hartford
Paris
Rome
Trenton
Utica
Westmoreland
Whites town
AQMA Total
SMSA Total Housing Units
Percent of SMSA
SMSA Total Households
Total Year Round H.U.
AQMA Percent of Year
Round Housing Units**
Total H.U. 1970
1st Count
2,486
877
1,088
1,003
3,437
1,687
1,387
6,553
1,365
14,524
1,435
32,797
1,392
6,662
76,693
112,712
68.0
103,486
109,306
70.2
New H.U.*
1970-74
180
91
12
17
152
81
62
413
17
1,446
84
1,668
127
192
4,542
5,153
5,153
Est. Total
2,666
968
1,100
1,020
3,589
1,768
1,449
6,966
1,382
15,970
1,519
34,465
1,519
6,854
81,235
117,865
114,459
Est. Loss
1% of 1970
25
9
11
10
34
17
14
66
14
(count) 545
14
(count) 1,013
14
67
1,853
2,214
2,180
1975
2,641
959
1,089
1,010
3,555
1,751
1,435
6,900
1,368
15,425
1,505
33,452
1,505
6,787
79,382
115,651
68.6
113,639***
112,279
70.7
Assume Continuation of 1970-74 Level of Construction Activity
*Bui1 ding Permit + Mobile Home Est.
**Seasonal Dwellings are not a significant number in the AQMA
***Projected, See Table 4
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- 9 -
TABLE 6
KILOMETER SQUARES ALTERED BY LANQ USE UPDATE 6 PROJECTION
UTICA-ROME AQMA
LAND AREA IN KILOMETER SQUARES
Community
Frankfort
Schuyler
Floyd
Kirkland
Lee
Marcy
New Hartford (T)
Paris
Rome
Trenton
Utica
Westmoreland
Whites town
TOTAL AQMA
Total
(LUNR)
97
101
91
85
117
86
64
80
196
115
44
113
68
1,252
Update
To 1975
3
4
0
5
6
7
20
0
17
2
11
4
11
97
Prpjection
To 2000
6
4
3
7
8
16
18
0
19
6
10
13
11
124
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- 10 -
TABLE 7
HOUSING DENSITY
LUNR SURVEY IN UTICA-ROME AIR QUALITY M flNTENANCE AREA
Th° following are Field Counts of Sample Hectares in the Uticg Area
LUNR Residential Density
U.S.G.S. Quadrangle
UTICA WEST
UTICA EAST
AVERAGE
RH(High)
(14
(37
(25
(36
(21
(28
(26
(35
(30
28
30
RM (Medium)
10
10
11
10
12
10.6
11
RL(Low)
6
H
H
4
5
4.6
5
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- 11 -
TABLE 8
URBAN LAND USE CHANGES 1968-1975
UTICA-ROME AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT AREA
Area In Hectares Percent
1968 1975 Change
RESIDENTIAL
DENSITY- HIGH RH 1,444 1,561 8.1
MEDIUM RM 3,331 3,439 3.3
LOW RL 2,952 3,042 3.0
STRIP RS 258 258 0
RURAL HAMLET RR 513 513 0
ESTATES* RE 24 24 0
COMMERCIAL
CBD CU 178 162 -0.9
SHOPPING CENTER CC 68 127 86.8
COMMERCIAL STRIP CS 822 963 17.2
RESORT* CR 25 25 0
MANUFACTURING
LIGHT IL 208 260 25.0
HEAVY IH 467 455 -2.6
OUTDOOR RECREATION OR 1,488 1,608
PUBLIC P 3,477 3,707
TOTAL 15,255 16,144 5.9
*This category is not shown in the projection
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- 12 -
The Bureau of the Census and the State Economic Development Board both note a
trend toward smaller household size which tends to maintain a higher demand for
housing units. This trend was reflected in the 1976 Economic Development Board
projection of household formation in the region (Table 3) .
A separate projection of households results from dividing projected population by
household size projected by the Census Bureau (Table 4) . Both projections show
substantial household formation through 1990 followed by a sharp decline in growth
through 2000.
Inspection of both household projections supports the reasonableness of assuming a
market of approximately 1,000 new housing units per year. To simplify assumptions
of land absorption this is extended to 2000. Naturally, this market estimate would
be adjusted upward if future projections indicate population growth in the, region.
In order to translate housing construction activity into land use, the residential
land uses reported in the LUNR survey were updated with the aid of 1975 aerial
photography and the change in residential land use noted on a community basis.
This was done by measuring some 97 kilometer squares where changes were known to
have taken place. In the course of assigning projected growth this sample was ex-
panded to 124 kilometer squares (Table 6) . Hectares in each residential category
in each community were translated to housing units on the basis of a sample field
check of housing units per hectare in each category. The housing units jn each
land use category were then restated as percentages of the total estimated housing
units. The estimated new housing construction for each community was assigned
to residential categories on a basis of the percentage of housing unjts in each
category existing in 1975.
For projection purposes it was assumed that 5,000 housing units would be construct-
ed in the region in each five-year period. The new construction was assigned tp
communities on the basis of recorded activity in the 1969-74 period. During that
period 74% of new construction took place in the 14 core communities which comprise
the Utica-Rome Air Quality Management Area. The balance occurred in the Mohawk
Valley communities and outlying parts of the SMSA. Permit records for the Air
Quality Management Area were adjusted for non-reporting and for the establish-
ment of several large mobile home parks. The adjusted housing construction figu-
res for the years 1970-1974 were used as a basis for estimating land use changes
during the projection periods. The total housing units were divided into density
categories and these, in turn, were converted to hectares of new residential land.
This calculation is presented in Tables 9 and 10.
DISTRIBUTION OF NEW RESIDENTIAL LAND
The calculation of residential land increase by town was further assigned to loca-
tions within the towns on the basis of the land use goals, objectives apd policies.
-------
- 13 -
Assignments were made to areas with soil suitable to residential construction with
priority being given to those locations presently served or accessible to public
water and sewer facilities. The assignments reflect the existing pattern of residen-
tial density and the proposals contained in the local master plans. Following these
considerations, probable conversion of land from an open land use category to re-
sidential was indicated on a LUNR map overlay with a one kilometer grid. Land
use changes in each kilometer square were coded for inclusion in the Air Quality
model for Utica-Rome.
-------
TABLE 9
DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING UNITS AMONG RESIDENTIAL LAND USE CLASSES, 1975
UTJCA-ROME AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
1975 LUNR Update (Preliminary)
Mobile
Hectares Homes
RH RM RL RS MH
Estimated Housing Units
RH RM RL RS
Units per Hectare
30 11 52
Total Est. 1975HU
From Land Area
Percent of Est. Housing Units
RH RM RL RS
Frankfort
Schuyler
Deerfield
Floyd
Kirkland
Lee
Marcy
New Hartford
Paris
Rome
Trenton
ilttca
Westmoreland
Whitestown
10
25
1
17
14
9
8
71
10
406
15
872
1
71
75
20
195
22
255
125
67
687
46
663
0
707
4
529
261
74
142
245
192
114
379
514
108
282
205
115
185
206
7 150
2 375
12 -
6 -
1
11
29 -
28 -
14 -
70 -
34 -
8 -
20 -
16 -
300
750
30
510
420
270
240
2,130
300
12,180
450
26,160
30
2,130
825
220
2,145
242
2,805
1,375
737
7,557
506
7,293
0
7,777
44
5,819
1,305
370
710
1,225
960
570
1,895
2,570
540
1,410
1,025
575
925
1,030
14
4
29
12
2
22
58
56
28
140
68
16
40
32
2,444
1,344
2,909
1,989
4,187
2,237
2,930
12,313
1,374
21,023
1,543
34,528
1,039
9,011
12.3
55.8
1.0
25.6
1.5**
12.1
8.2
17.3
21.8
58.0
29.2
75.7
2.9
2.9
33.8
16.4
73.7
12.2
6.0**
61.4
25.2
61.4
36.8
34.7
0
22.6
4.2
64.6
53.4
27.5
24.4
61.6
2.0**
25.5
64.7
20.9
39.3
6.7
66.4
1.7
89.0
11.4
0.5
0.3
0.9
0.6
5.0**
1.0
1.9
0.4
2.1
0.6
4.4
0
3.9
0.4
Tota! Air Quality
Maintenance
Area 3,530 3,395 3,022 258
*Based on Field Check of Smaple Hectares (Table 7}
**Assumption used in calcuteting growth assignment
45,900 37,345 15,110 516
98,871
46.4 37.8 15.3 0.5
-------
TABLE 10
HECTARES OF NEW RESIDENTIAL LAND NEEDED PER FIVE YEAR PERIOD
UTICA-ROME AQMA
Housing Units
Assignment to Land Use Classes
Projected New Construction (Distribution from Table 9)
Five Years RH RM RL RS
Frankfort
Schuyler
Deerfield
Floyd
Kirkland
Lee
Marcy
New Hartford
Paris
Rome
Trenton
Utica
Westmoreland
Whites town
180
91
10
17
45
81
70
483
17
1,186
84
980
116
185
22
51
1
4
7
10
6
84
4
688
24
742
3
44
61
15
7
2
27
50
18
297
6
411
0
221
5
120
96
25
2
10
9
20
45
100
7
79
56
17
103
21
1
0
1
1
2
1
1
2
0
8
4
0
5
0
Conversion to Hectares of
RH RM RL
1
2
0
0
2
0
0
3
0
23
1
25
0
1
6
1
1
0
3
5
2
27
1
37
0
20
0
11
19
5
0
2
2
4
9
20
1
16
11
3
21
4
Land
RS
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
2
1
2
1
Total Air Quality
Maintenance Area
3/545
1,690
1,240
590
26
58
114
117
19
U1
I
-------
- 16 -
COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LAND NEEDS
Projecting commercial and industrial land needs is a difficult problem in the face of
a projected decline in regional population. In addition to the problem of a depressed
economy, there is the matter of under-utilization of existing commercial and indus-
trial facilities. Alternate methods for projecting commercial and industrial land
needs include extrapolation of past trends, use of a ratio of commercial and indus-
trial land to total urban land, and a ratio of commercial and industrial land to popu-
Past Trends
Projecting past trends of land consumption for commercial/industrial purposes is
perhaps the most traditional land use forecasting technique. Its mechanics are
quite simple: a table showing the number of acres developed as commercial or in-
dustrial is prepared, the figures are then aggregated to show total new acres de-
veloped by year or by some other block of time, then future projections are made
by adding the number of acres developed per year multiplied by the number of
years in the forecast period.
The primary advantages to this method are its simplicity and the reliability of the
data base. Its major drawback is that the projections derived from it are accurate
only insofar as the future reflects past trends. In the qase of the Utica-Rome SMSA
there is an additional drawback in that the past trends themselves are conflicting.
In recent years the region has experienced a fair amount of non-residential site
preparation and construction. Significant public investments have been made in
developing fully serviced sites* for non-residential use. Existing industrial parks
have been expanded and new ones created through the offices of the Herkimer and
Oneida County Governments, the Oneida County Industrial Development Corpora-
tion and the Herkimer County Area Development Corporation. The staff of the
Herkimer-Oneida Counties Comprehensive Planning Program has assisted the two
area industrial development organizations in identifying and analyzing potential
non-residential sites for inclusion in the region's portfolio of marketable non-re-
sidential locations. In commercial development the year 1975 alone experienced
the opening of the 200,000 square foot Riverside Mall. If the trends established by
these activities were projected into the future then the requirements for non-resi-
dential land would be substantial.
On the other hand, unemployment statistics from the New York State pepartment of
Labor** show that the SMSA unemployment rate has risen from 5.5% in 1970 to 10.5^
in 1975. Just in the month of December, 1975, the region lost in excess, of 2,000
*Fully serviced sites, as used in this report, refers to either specific parcels or
larger industrial park areas where public water & sewer services are available.
**See Table 13 on page 23
-------
- 17 -
jobs due to plant closings and lay-offs. The large gain in commercial land was off-
set by the closing of three large shopping centers, mostly due to the new competi-
tion from the Riverside Mall, and at present there are no prospective retail tenants
for this vacant space. Clearly, then, a straight line projection of past trends in
non-residential land development would be misleading if applied to the Utica-Rome
SMSA.
Ratio Formula
Another traditional method of forecasting future non-residential land use require-
ments is to utilize a ratio based on some larger geographic area. In this methodo-
logy a larger area for which existing and future land use statistics have been pre-
pared is chosen. The amount of land which has been developed for non-residen-
tial purposes is then calculated for the study area and for the larger area. Deve-
lopment within the study area is then expressed as a percent of land development
in the larger area. Future land use requirements for the study area are then cal-
culated by applying that percentage to the future projected land use requirements
in the larger area.
There are two drawbacks to using this methodology for the Utica-Rome SMSA. The
first is the unavailability of land use statistics. The only state-wide inventory of
land use is the LUNR Survey which was completed in 1968. Various planning agen-
cies representing different areas of the state have prepared their own surveys or
updated the LUNR study, but the years in which the updates were completed do not
correspond ampng the regions. The HOCCPP, for instance, completed its own land
use survey in 1965 predating the LUNR inventory. Further the regional land use
surveys which do exist used different criteria in classifying land use. As a result
there are no two years of compatable data available from which to derive the Herki-
mer-Oneida region's share of non-residential development.
The other drawback is that, to be meaningful, there must be a relationship between
development in the study area and in the larger region. Projecting a study area
development pace as part of a larger region's can only be successful if both areas
are responding to similar stimuli. If they are not, then a gain or loss in land use
in the larger region will not lead to a similar gain nor loss in the study area where
the economic activities studied might represent an insignificant Use of land.
The Herkimer-Oneida region is not logically part of any larger region unless the
scale is increased to include all of Upstate New York. The SMSA is physically iso-
lated and its employment base is in the service and ancilliary production categor-
ies. Although market forces in terms of state-wide employment trends are reflected
here, land use forces including development pace are not. Further, the region's
employment base is traditionally the first to feel a recession and the last to recover.
A ratio formula, then, is not appropriate for forecasting future commercial/indus-
trial development in this region.
-------
- 18 -
Population
Population projections have frequently been used to project non-residential land re-
quirements. Generally such projections either compare land use surveys with con-
temporary population data or utilize existing standards for non-residential land re-
quirements in acres necessary to support certain populations. The relationships
between industrial and commercial land use and population are then forecasted at
future population levels.
There are two weak links in these methodologies. First, their accuracy is depen-
dent of the accuracy of the population projections. Also, there is a tacet assump-
tion that population and the number of acres devoted to non-residential uses will
be related in some fashion or other, and that this relationship will be static or at
least susceptable to statistical analysis so that a projection equation may be drawn.
The Herkimer-Oneida Counties Comprehensive Planning Program prepared a set of
population projections in 1972. Prior to their publication in the report Population
(HOCCPP, 1972) the NYS Office of Planning Services released a set of population
projections for the whole state and its civil divisions. State policy dictated that the
HOCCPP alter its report to use the Office of Planning Services projections even
though they differed significantly from the ones prepared by HOCCPP. In November
1975 the NYS Economic Development Board released a new set of population projec-
tions. These were significantly different from the 1972 projections and, in fact,
called for a steady decline in the Utica-Rome SMSA's population through the year
2000. Given these changing population projections it is difficult to justify a land
use projection based on them.
The second weak link is the assumption that gross population, or population by age
group, is related in some measurable manner to non-residential land use. Given
the changing characteristics of the region's population (shifts in age groupings,
changes in number of households and household size) and the changing nature of
the workforce (the entrance of a number of spouses, the present emphasis on
"work-study" programs by local colleges) it appears that any such relationship
drawn today would be very exposed to a future change in this area thus rendering
the projections invalid.
Labor Force
The methodology finally selected was to correlate future land use requirements
with projections of the labor force. It was felt that sufficient data existed to pro-
ject the labor force at differing population levels and that, by assuming arbitrary
levels of unemployment, realistic figures for future employment levels could be
derived. Employment, in turn, could be converted into future land use require-
ments on the assumption that, even though the size and composition of the work
-------
- 19 -
force may change over time, the design and construction of commercial and indus-
trial buildings would not change appreciably and their employment/acre relation-
ship would remain valid throughout the forecast period.
CORRELATION OF EMPLOYMENT AND LAND USE METHODOLOGY
Overview
The following section contains a step by step description of this methodology and
traces the land use projections as they were developed. The results were verified
at two places during the process so that accuracy could be evaluated, The verifi-
cation procedures are also explained.
Labor Force Projections
Table 11 contains the projections of labor force through the year 2000. It was de-
rived by calculating the 1960 and 1970 labor force as a percent of total regional
population. This was seen to increase by 3.41% during the 10-year interval. It
was assumed for planning purposes that this change would remain static through-
out the forecast period primarily because it contains an allowance for labor force
increases due to changing family size and families with working spouses. As with
all projections its reliability becomes more suspect as the time period lengthens.
-------
- 20 -
TABLE 11
POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE 1960-2000
UTICA-ROME SMSA
Labor Force*
119,987
135,172
139,678
143,689
148,551
153,948
158,129
161,671
*1960 and 1970 from U.S. Census; 14 and 15 year old cohorts subtracted from
1960; 1975-2000 straight line projection
Year
1=60
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Population
330,771
340,670
337,506
333,462
331,624
331,070
328,034
323,926
% of Population
36.27
39.68
41.385
43.09
44.795
46.5
48.205
49.91
-------
- 21 -
Labor Force Projections - Verification
In the absence of projections for future labor force prepared by an outside agency,
these projections had to be verified by inference rather than by comparison. To do
this the NYS Economic Development Board's population projections were broken
down into two groups: total population and population aged 20-64. This 20-64 age
group generally corresponds with the labor force age groups. Table 12 lists these
figures and calculates the 20-64 age group as a percent of total population. It was
felt that if this group increased as a percent of total population even though the
total population was decreasing, then the prior assumption that the labor force it-
self was increasing as a percent of population would be verified. Table 11 shows
that there is an increasing pattern even though this does not hold true for 1990 and
1995. For planning purposes the prior assumption was verified.
Employment Projections
Table 13 converts the future labor force figures into future employment. This was
done by applying the appropriate unemployment rate to the total labor force. The
figures for unemployment during 1970-1975 were supplied by the NYS Department
of Labor. Although not totally consistent they do indicate a high level of unemploy-
ment peaking in 1975 at 10.5%. Future unemployment rates were calculated by
assuming a drop in unemployment of 1 % every five years. This long-term gradual
reduction in unemployment is consistent with the long-term employment outlook for
the Utica-Rome SMSA.
-------
- 22 -
TABLE 12
LABOR FORCE AS A PERCENT OF POPULATION VERIFICATION
UTICA-ROME SMSA
Year
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Total Population
340,670
337,506
333,462
331,624
331,070
328,034
323,926
Population Aged 20-64
174,421
182,466
187,820
190,543
189,204
186,771
188,322
Percent
51.20
54.06
56.32
57.46
57.15
56.99
58.14
Verified for planning purposes because it shows a continuing increase in the labor
force population age groups as a percent of total population.
-------
- 23 -
TABLE 13
LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT 1970-2000
UTICA-ROME SMSA
Year
1970*
(1970)**
1971*
1972
1973
1974
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Labor Force
125,796
(135,172)
127,260
128,734
122,767
127,200
129,220
133,717
138,242
143,264
147,155
150,451
Unemployment Rate
5.5%
(5.53%)
9.2%
10.4%
6.3%
6.7%
10.5%
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
Employment
118,871
(127,696)
115,513
115,302
115,017
117,978
115,703
121,014
126,491
132,519
137,590
142,176
*1970-1975 NYS Department of Labor
**U.S. Census
-------
The future employment levels shown have the advantage of being derived from a
flexible system. As the future becomes the past and actual unemployment figures
are published for future years, the unemployment projections in the report may be
modified using this same methodology. In this manner any false assumptions con-
tained in this report may easily be corrected.
Employment Projections - Verification
The employment projections were verified by running comparisons with two inde-
pendently prepared sets of employment projections. In eaqh case future employ-
ment was calcualted as a percent of future population. It was felt that verification
from two outside sources was necessary because, even through a number of pro-
jections of this sort have been made, each projection has been derived from a dif-
ferent data base. The population figures in particular are different in each data
base. Also, the reliability of the future employment figure is extremely important
because it was used as the final basis for the land use projections. Any error in
future employment, including any error in the assumed future unemployment rate,
would render the land use projections invalid.
The verification process is shown in Table 14. For each set of data the projected
SMSA employment figure was divided by the future population and expressed as a
percent. The first set of data is the figures contained in this report. Columns (2),
(3) and (4) are the population projections prepared in 1975 by the NYS Economic
Development Board, the employment projections from Table 13 of this report, and
the percent of total population represented by employment.
The second set of data was abstracted from Table 1 of the 1972-E QBERS Projec-
tions, Economic Activuty in the U.S., Volume 5, Standard Metropolitan Statis-
tical Areas published in April 1974 as a joint project of the U .S. Departments of
Commerce and Agriculture. This set is presented in columns (5), (6) and (7).
The final set of data used two sources. The 1980 employment projection came from
MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS: Interim Projections, New York State 1968-1980
published by the NYS Department of Labor. 1980 was the last projection year in
the report. This report in turn was based on the 1972 preliminary population pro-
jections which at that time were being prepared by the NYS Office of Planning
Services. Column 8, therefore, is the 1980 population projection according to the
NYS OPS (1972 version) and column 9 is from the NYS DOL.
The coarse figures without decimal places show the long-term correlation with the
U.S. Departments of Commerce and Agriculture figures and therefore verify the
long-term employment trend. More exact percentages are included for 1980 be-
cause this was the only projection year for which three figures could be derived
and compared. It was felt that their difference? were insignificant and that the
employment projections were verified.
-------
TABLE 14
EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO VERIFICATION
Year
1980
Source: HOCCPP
Pop
Emp Emp - Pop
1970 340,670 118,871 34.9%
333,462 121,014
1985 331,620 126,491
1990 331,070 132,519
2000 323,926 142,176
36.3%
38.1%
40.0%
43.9%
Source: OBERS
Pop
Emp Emp - Pop
38%
42.279%
347,200 147,600 42%
351,100 150,200 43%
341,019 128,609
343,200 145,100
355,900 158,400
45%
Source: NYS DOL I OPS
Pop
Emp Emp - Pop
352,668 135,400 38.393%
NJ
Ul
-------
-26 -
Employment by Category
In order to arrive at separate figures for future land needed for commercial versus
industrial uses based on employment, the employment figures themselves had to be
divided into categories. For the purposes of this report only three categories were
used. The first was military, primarily armed forces personnel and government
service employees working at Criffiss Air Force Base. The second category was in-
dustrial. This included only the Manufacturing and Durable Goods categories from
me U.S. Census. The last category included everything else. It is important to
realize this when using these land use projections. Commercial, office, sales, ser-
vice and numerous other types of workers are included so the figures under the
heading "Commercial and Service" apply to a great deal more than just offices and
stores.
Table 15 presents the data on employment by category. The relative shift toward
Commercial and Service employment and away from Industrial is seen not only in
the two census years, it is also reflected in the region's current planning for emp-
loyment growth. The two types of employment which are expected to make the most
dramatic gains in the near future are service industries and tourism. The overall
shift from Industrial to Commercial and Service is not dramatic even though it i$ a
continuing trend. Throughout the twenty-five year forecast period the percent of
all employed workers in the Commercial and Service classification rises only 4.47%.
Military employment has been held at a constant figure of 8,000. The implications
of any great disruption in Griffiss employment (either upward or downward) are
too great to be addressed in this report. Military employment does change as a
percent of total employment even though the number of Military employees is static.
This is because the total number of employed persons changes from year to year.
As the base figure for total employment shifts, the percent of that base represented
by 8,000 Military and Government Service Employee workers will change.
LAND USE PROJECTIONS
The preceeding sections of this report have developed a methodology for establish-
ing future employment in three large categories. The methodology is based on
readily available data and, should any significant changes in the region's economic
situation occur, the resulting new data may be inserted into the methodology with
minimal disruption to the process. This should be done periodically to insure the
projections' accuracy and also to keep the projections current.
Commercial and Service Land Use Projections
Projecting land use requirements on the basis of employment requires a computa-
tion of the relationship between that land use and the number of people it employs,
-------
- 27 -
TABLE 15
EMPLOYMENT BY CATEGORY 1960-2000
Ye
(1)
1960
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Total
Employed :
(2)
120,
118,
115,
121,
126,
132,
137,
142,
650 :
871 :
703 :
014 :
491
519 :
590 :
176 : :
Military
Number
(3)
8,000
8,000
8,000
8,000
8,000
8,000
8,000
8,000
Percent
Remainder
Industrial
: Number
% of 4
(4) (5)
6.63
6.73
6.91
6.61
6.32
6.03
5.81
5.63
112,
110,
107,
113,
118,
124,
129,
134,
650
871
703
014
491
519
590
176
: 45,
: 42,
:40,
' =41.
: 42,
: 43,
: 43,
: 44,
033
342
162
137
064
096
685
037
39.98
38.19
37.29
36.40
35.50
34.61
33.71
32.82
Commercial /Service
Number
(6)
67,617
68,529
67,541
71,877
76,427
81,423
85,905
90,139
% of 4
60.02
61.81
62.17
63.60
64,50
65.39
66,29
67.18
-------
- 28 -
Historically Commercial and Service employment in the Utica-Rome SMSA has em-
ployed fewer people per acre of land use than has Industrial employment. This is
primarily due to the compact, multi-story configuration of many of the region's in-
dustrial buildings. Current trends toward single-story industrial plants occupy-
ing larger land areas than their multi-story counterparts will gradually decrease
this descrepency.
Commercial and Service employment in Herkimer-Oneida Counties has been calcu-
lated at 14.41 jobs per acre. In other words, the land area occupied by Commer-
c\c.l ^nd Service uses is equal to total Commercial and Service employees divided
by 14.41. Table 16 lists future land use requirements based on this standard.
Column (2) contains the figures developed in Table 15 while column (3) is emp-
loyment divided by 14.41.
Column (4). New Land Use, is a comparison between forecast years. It should be
noted that New Land Requirements in Acres for 1975 is 0. Because a mathematical
formula was used to convert employees to land use in acres, and because the num-
ber of employees dropped between the base year and 1975, the formula automati-
cally registered a decrease in Commercial and Service land requirements in 1975.
Obviously this does not mean that the buildings occupying this surplus land were
demolished, but some of them were vacated such as the W.T. Grant stores and
Westons. In the region's urban centers in particular, the upper floors of office
and commercial buildings are no longer occupied even though there are still stores
on the ground floors. Also, many Commercial and Service employers have reduced
their employees without reducing their work space. Because of the substpntial
potential for increasing employment within land areas already in commercial use,
a limited amount of the new space was assigned to new, undeveloped land. As
employment begins to rise in the future the initial surge will see employees being
rehired back into existing stores and offices and the reopening of some of the re-
gion's vacant Commercial and Service buildings. New construction will also take
place but it will only house a portion of the increasing number of employed persons.
Column (4), New Land Use, is a cumulative total. The projections, therefore, call
for the reopening of presently unoccupied Commercial and Service space plus the
development of new space, some of which will be in urban renewal areas, some in
existing commercial areas and some on open land. If this was all on open land, it
would absorb 301 acres by 1980. Identification of new commercial areas on the map
is limited to showing extension of existing centers. No new centers are shown.
Industrial Land Use Projections
Table 17, Future Industrial Land Use Requirements, was prepared in the same man-
ner as Table 16. Once again the descrepency between employment during the base
-------
- 29 -
TABLE 16
FUTURE COMMERCIAL/SERVICE LAND USE REQUIREMENTS
Land Required**
Year
(D
Base Year*
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Employment
(2)
68,529
67,541
71,877
76,427
81,423
85,905
90,139
Acres
(3)
4,755
4,686
4,987
5,303
5,650
5,961
6,255
Hectares
1,925
1,897
2,019
2,147
2,287
2,413
2,532
New Land Use
Acres
(4)
-
o****
301
617
964
1,275
1,569
Hectares
-
0
122
250
39Q
515
635
*1968 LUNR and 1970 Census
**@ 14.41 jobs/acre
***Cumulative Totals
****See explanation in preceeding section
-------
- 30 -
TABLE 17
FUTURE INDUSTRIAL LAND USE REQUIREMENTS
Land Required**
New Land Use***
Year
(1)
Base Year*
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2QOO:
Employment
(2)
42,342
40,162
41,137
42,064
43,096
43,685
44,037
Acres
(3)
2,086
1,978
2,026
2,072
2,123
2,152
2,169
Hectares
845
801
820
839
860
871
878
Acres
(4)
-
Q****
HQ**f
94
145
174
181
Hectares
-
-
f** 19
38
59
70
77
*1968 LUNR and 1970 Census
**@ 20.30 jobs/acre
***Cumulative Totals
****See Explanation in Narrative
*****Explained in Narrative; 1980 = 1/3 of surplus; 1985 on = cumulative total
-------
- 31 -
year and 1975 indicates a surplus of Industrial land in 1975. Most of this is due to
the drop in employment, i.e. plant closings, layoffs and elimination of midnight
shifts and, while industrial land supply currently exceeds useage, the long-term
gain in employment will see plant reopenings and call-backs.
Column (4), New Land Use, has been calculated differently th)an it was in Table
16. Here it was not assumed that most of the existing unoccupied industrial space
would be occupied in the future. As mentioned previously much of the region's
industrial space is in older buildings which are inappropriate to current industrial
construction standards and processes. Some of these older buildings have already
been converted from true industry to warehousing, wholesaling and education
uses. It is expected that more of this conversion will occur in the future and that
some of this vacant industrial space will never be reoccupied by industry. There-
fore the figure in column (4) for 1980 is plus 48 acres even though 1980 employment
is below base year employment. The figure 48 represents one-third of the new
land use demand between 1975 and 1980. In other words two-thirds of the increase
in employment between 1975 and 1980 would be workers returning to existing
structures, the last third represents new construction. From 1980 to 2000 it was
assumed that all new employment would occupy new industrial space. Almost all
of this new construction is expected to take place in the region's industrial parks
because they have been planned and zoned for industrial use, are being actively
marketed, and the utility services required by industry are either on the sites al-
ready or located in close proximity to them.
ANALYSIS AND IMPLICATIONS
The results of these analyses show a continuing modest growth in the region's non-
residential land uses. They indicate that rising employment in the short-term wi||
not result in comparable increases in land useage. As previously explained, this
is because of the region's existing supply of unoccupied and underoccupied non-
residential structures. The relationship between employment and non-residential
development will become more consistent in the long-term as existing buildings
approach full utilization and obsolete buildings are either converted to other uses
or phased out completely.
Land development in the Commercial and Service category is expected to overshadow
Industrial land development. Clearly this is a reflection of the shift in the region's
economy from industrial to service and tourism employment which is currently tak-
ing place, and which is expected to continue.
-------
TABLE 18
PROJECTED TOTAL URBAN LAND, 1975-2000, UTICA-ROME AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
Frankfort
Schuyler
Deerfield
Floyd
Kirk land
Lee
Marcy
New Hartford
Paris
Rome
Trenton
Utica
Westmoreland
Whitestown
Utica-Rome AQMA 134,200
TOTAL
LAND
9,700
10,100
8,500
9,100
8,500
11,700
8,600
6,400
8,000
19,600
11,500
4,400
11,300
6,800
34,200
1975
629
217
504
403
742
531
919
1,894
371
4,379
463
3,056
442
1,511
16,061
URBAN
1980
694
221
505
407
746
542
940
1,908
371
4,445
477
3,090
467
1,540
16,35?
LAND (HECTARES)
1985
744
235
510
409
750
572
953
1,951
371
4,520
492
3,110
497
1,573
16,687
1995
814
252
511
417
774
603
986
2,014
371
4,666
518
3,135
550
1 ,683
17,294
2000
847
265
513
420
785
624
1,003
2,106
371
4,838
530
3,136
571
1,689
17,698
PERCENT URBAN
1975
6.48
2.15
5.93
4.43
8.73
4.54
10.69
29.59
4.64
22.34
4.03
69.45
3.91
22.22
11.97
1980
7.15
2.19
5.94
4.47
8.78
4.63
10.93
29.81
4.64
22.68
4.15
70.23
4.13
22.65
12.19
1985
7
2
6
4
8
4
11
30
4
23
4
70
4
23
12
.67
.33
.00
.49
.82
.89
.08
.48
.64
.06
.28
.68
.40
.13
.43
1995
8.39
2.50
6.01
4.58
9.11
5.15
11.47
31.47
4.64
23.81
4.50
71.25
4.87
24.75
12.89
2000
8.73
2.62
6.04
4.62
9.24
5.33
11.66
32.91
4.64
24.68
4.61
71.27
5.05
24.84
13. 1Q
U)
to
-------
TABLE 19
- 33 -
PROJECTED URBAN LAND USES, 1975-2001, DTICA ROME AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
AREA IN HECTARES
ONEIDA COUNTY
DEERFIELD
KIRKLAND
ONEIDA COUNTY
LEE
MARCY
NEW HARTFORD
PARIS
TRENTON
ONEIDA COUNTY
UTICA
WESTMORELAND
WHITESTOWN
YEAR
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1935
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1'975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
-HIGH
10
10
10
10
10
25
25
25
29
36
1
1
1
1
1
17
17
17
17
17
14
14
14
14
14
23
23
26
26
26
8
8
8
8
8
78
84
88
94
97
;o
10
10
10
10
416
431
455
484
526
15
16
17
18
19
872
883
904
914
914
1
1
1
1
1
71
72
73
72
75
MEDIUM
75
79
87
97
104
20
20
23
23
23
211
212
214
215
217
22
22
22
22
22
255
257
259
264
264
126
132
145
163
169
75
81
83
83
83
687
690
713
758
804
46
46
46
46
46
666
678
713
786
910
0
0
0
0
0
717
739
747
769
770
10
17
21
25
25
529
539
550
586
595
LOW
261
230
304
345
368
78
81
83
96
102
142
142
145
145
145
245
249
251
259
262
192
194
106
211
223
114
119
131
140
154
379
387
397
416
427
525
532
552
580
626
108
108
108
108
108
282
300
308
343
349
205
218
232
257
268
120
121
124
127
127
185
201
237
298
319
206
210
218
229
234
STRIP
7
7
10
14
17
2
2
6
6
6
12
12
12
12
12
6
6
6
6
6
1
1
1
5
5
11
11
11
13
13
29
30
31
31
31
28
28
28
28
28
14
14
14
14
14
70
74
78
84
84
34
34
34
34
34
8
8
8
8
8
20
22
24
28
28
16
16
16
16
16
RURAL HAMLET
27
27
27
27
27.
0
0
0
0
0
7
7
7
7
7
21
21
21
21
21
37
37
37
37
37
66
66
66
66
66
14
14
14
14
14
0
0
0
0
0
39
39
39
39
39
103
103
103
103
103
104
104
104
104
104
0
0
0
0
0
80
80
80
80
80
15
15
15
15
15
:BD
11
11
11
11
11
4
4
4
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
12
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
21
21
21
21
2
2
2
2
2
32
32
32
32
32
0
0
0
0
0
75
75
75
75
75
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
5
5
5
SHOPPING
CENTER
0
0
4
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
5
5
5
0
0
0
0
n
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
33
38
38
38
0
0
0
0
0
15
15
15
15
15
0
0
0
0
0
34
54
54
54
54
0
0
0
0
0
15
15
15
15
15
CO'IMERCIAL
STRIP
56
56
56
56
56
50
51
51
51
51
21
21
21
21
21
5
5
5
5
5
40
40
40
40
49
32
32
34
36
37
75
75
75
75
75
122
122
122
120
120
33
33
33
33
33
153
157
152
155
155
32
32
32
32
32
189
189
180
189
189
19
19
23
27
27
127
127
127
127
127
INDUSTRIAL
LIGHT
16
20
31
46
46
3
3
3
3
3
0
0
n
n
T
0
0
0
0
0
,
9
1
2
2
7
7
7
7
7
1
1
11
21
27
8
8
8
8
8
0
0
0
0
0
41
54
63
63
63
4
4
4
4
4
116
116
116
116
116
0
0
0
0
0
62
76
39
153
153
HEAVY
38
38
38
38
38
0
0
')
0
n
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
34
34
34
34
34
51
51
51
51
51
8
8
8
8
8
150
150
150
150
150
0
0
0
0
0
144
144
144
144
144
0
0
0
0
0
30
30
30
30
30
OUTDOOR
RECREATION
107
107
107
107
107
13
13
18
18
18
37
37
37
37
37
43
43
43
43
43
51
51
51
51
51
59
59
59
59
59
127
127
127
127
127
231
229
225
205
202
72
72
72
72
72
305
305
305
305
305
7
7
7
7
7
238
238
238
238
238
84
84
84
84
84
234
234
234
234
223
59
59
59
59
59
22
22
22
22
22
68
68
68
68
63
44
44
44
44
44
129
129
128
128
128
523
523
511
501
501
43
43
43
43
43
201
201
201
201
201
629
694
744
814
847
217
221
235
252
265
504
505
510
511
513
403
407
409
417
43*
742
746
750
774
735
59
59
59
59
59
127
127
127
127
127
231
229
225
205
202
72
72
72
72
72
305
305
305
305
305
7
7
7
7
7
93
93
93
93
93
177
183
183
191
191
105
105
105
111
111
39
39
39
39
39
2146
2146
2146
2146
2146
58
58
58
58
58
531
542
572
603
624
919
940
953
986
1003
1894
1908
1951
2014
2106
371
371
371
371
371
4379
4445
4520
4666
4838
463
477
492
518
530
3056
3090
3110
3135
3136
442
467
497
550
571
1511
1540
1573
1683
1689
-------
-34-
TABLE 20
SELECTED PUBLIC AND SEMI-PUBLIC USES.
1968 and 1975
UT1CA-ROME AQMA
FRANKFORT
SCEUYLER
DEERFIELD
FLOYD
KIRKLAND
LEE
MARCY
NEW HARTFORD
PARIS
ROME
TRENTON
UTICA
WESTMORELAND
WHITESTOWN
Schools Churches Hospitals Military Prison County Home
p-
'68
4
1
1
1
4
3
3
8
3
18
4
21
2
6
1
r75
3
0
0
1
7
2
2
9
2
20
^
3^
2
6
P-
'68
3
4
2
3
9
7
4
10
7
12
8
19
6
8
2
'75
4
2
3
9
7
3
10
7
26
8
77
6
8
j_ n .
P-3
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
3
0
3
0
5
0
0
P-4-
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
4
0
1
0
0
P-ll
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
o^1
P-15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
p
1(2
0
0
0
Q
SOURCES: 1968 LUNR Point Data and 1975 Dlrectpry
1) Onelda County Jail Incorrectly omitted in 1968
2) Onelda County Home closed. Buildings house
County offices and Mohawk Valley Community
College Rome Branch
-------
TABLE 21
- 35 -
rrri K SCHOOLS IN HIE UTICA-ROME AIR QUALITY MAiNTCiANcr. AREA, 1976
."-.advlcks
"Mnton
~rar.kfort
:.,-Iland Patent
^ev Hartford
.*- tori Mils
r.Ovi=y
~se
So-ii- (con't)
Sauquoit
-tic*
'."M tesboro
Vestsoreland
SOCES
VTM Coordinates
479 763
469 770
46S 766
463 766
463 766
484 763
494 763
494 764
436 769
435 788
479 788
479 787
475 785
479 788
473 768
478 767
476 768
476 768
478 767
475 771
476 770
472 778
472 778
463 7«4
4<>5 7"5
465 783
462 783
464 753
463 785
461 785
462 792
456 788
464 787
463 786
464 784
461 794
462 786
462 789
462 786
478 759
479 759
482 770
432 771
432 769
481 770
485 773
478 769
482 774
477 768
479 770
483 773
479 772
478 772
483 770
480 770
482 769
481 770
483 773
477 769
489 770
479 771
4? 3 771
432 775
474 772
478 775
476 777
773 476
474 774
475 774
476 773
477 773
467 773
473 771
School
Chadwlcks
Clark Mills.
Clinton
Clinton
Clinton
Frankfort-
Schuyler
Reese Road
North Side
W. Frankfort
Barneveld
Holland Patent
Holland Patent
Stittville
High School
Clinton Road
Higby Road
Oxford Road
Point School
Weston Road
New York Mills
Mew York mils
Oriskany
Oriskany
Alter
Bell Road
(ClouRh)
Bellamy
Clinton
Columbus
Fort Stanwix
Gansevoprt
Lake Delta
Parmalee
Ridge Mills
Rome Free
Academy
Staley
Stokes
Strough
Turin Road
Dentl
Sauquoit Valley
Sauquoit Valley
Albany Street
Brand egee
Columbus
Conkl^ng
Herkimer
Hughes
Jefferson
Jones
Kemble Street
Kennedy
Kern an
Lincoln
Mary Street
Miller
Proctor
Roosevelt
Seymour
Sunset
D.F.A.
Washington
Uetaore
Deerfield
Harts Hill
Marcy
Marcy
Parkway
Westmoreland
Road
Whitesboro
Whitesboro
Torkville
Westmoreland
Oneida 1
Grades
Served
K-12
K-6
K-l, 4-6
7-9
10-12
9-12
K-6
7-8
K-6
K-6
7-9
K-6
K-6
10-12
K-6
K-6
K-3,9-12
4-6
7-8
K-6
7-12
K-6
7-12
K-6
K-6
K-6
S-6
K-6
K-6
K-6
1-6
K-6
K-6
10-12
7-9
K-6
K-6, 7-9
K-6
K-6
K, 2-5
6-12
K-6
K-8
K-6
K-8
K-6
K-8
K-6
K-6
K-8
7-12
K-8
K-6
K-5
K-6
7-12
K-8
K-6
K-6
9-12
K-6
K-e
K-6
K-6
K-6
10-12
7
K-6
K-6
8-9
K-4
K-12
9-12
Original
Structure
Built
1914
1955
1956
1932
1964
1927
1956
1929
1962
1960
1937
1955
1960
1970
1957
1960
1932
1901
1964
1916
1958
1961
1931
1912
1954
1960
1928
1922
1920
1914
1955
1961
1957
19?6
1957
1957
1951
1955
1969
1953
1932
1896
1911
1957
1924
1960
1925
1957
1935
1880
1965
1916
1895
1901
1955
1935
1893
1922
1922
1917
1892
1900
1964
1953
1958
1967
1953
1968
1922
1936
1922
1941
1975
Additions
Built
'29,'62,'65
1964
1950
1956
1
'52,'54-,'59
1967
'52, '57
1921
1968
1964
'50, '53
1963
1963
1963
1963
'54, '65
'58, '65
1963
'58, '62
'58, '62, '63
1960
'58, '65
'58, '65
1962
1959
1922
1964
'53, '55
'53, '57
'14, '55
'53, '55
1963
1958
1958
'09, '29
'36, '50
1957
'48, '68
1959
'39, '14
1964
1956
1957
1959
1926
1954
1954
'56, '66
Number of
Cl flssrooms
23
15
27
36
29
22
22
9
21
14
29
18
22
24
24
53
IS
22
22
30
28
21
19
'
17
13
3.9
16
37
18
37
16
10
40
30
48
9
7
22
7J.
35
26
12
124
14
21
28
25
26
42
22
28
21
35
8
69
Site
Size
(acres)
15
7
10
22
Enrollment
CaoaclCT
425
480
850
600
600
\
22 -,' 600
12 616
.7
25
20
33
33
27
190
35
25
35,
.8
25
2
40
20
8
1
16
19
1
1
1
3
14
18
10
20
49
16
14
16
10
30
3.9
3
9.2
2.7
14
2.8
9.4
4.3
1.7
43
4.3
1.1
1.8
2.3
28.2
2.5
4.5
.9
6.5
1.5
1.6
26
18
17
40
10
74
2
30
5
45
64
315
588
450
750
540
690
885
740
810
1,600
460
650
530
600
750
400
4SO
54^
540
4R6
486
594
513
2*7
540
540
1,944
1,215
567
1,647
378
850
459
621
325
850
400
850
450
BOO
425
250
950
600
1,050
225
175
550
1,600
800
700
300
2,275
350
500
726
709
740
1,400
450
i
: 726
450
900
227
750
-------
- 36-
TABLE 22
LOCATION OF OTHER MAJOR LAND USES IN THE
IITICA-ROME AQMA, 1976
Parochial Schools
Utica - New Hartford
(P)
Blessed Sacrament
HUlel Day School
Holy Trinity
Notre Dame Hi oh School
uur Lady of Lourdes
Sacred Heart
St. Acmes
St. Anthony's
St. Francis de Sales
St. John the Evangelist
St. Mark's
St. Paul's
St. Peter's
Utica Catholic Academy
Rome
NYS School for the Deaf
Rome Catholic Hiqh School
Rome Catholic Junior Hiqh
St. Peter's
Transfiguration
Frankfort
St. Mary's
1621 St. Aanes
2310 OneIda
1214 Lincoln
Burrstone Road
4 Barton Avenue
Ann f- Ney Avenues
701 Kossuth
1521 Bleecker
301 Genesee^
Pearl St., New Hartford
23 Stanislas, N.Y. Mills
11 Parkway Dr, Whiteshoro
19 Herkimer Road
2527 Genesee
401 Turin
800 Cypress
214 w. Liberty
400 Floyd Ave.
400 S. James
HTM COORDINATES
481 769
478 769
«80 771
477 771
477 769
478 772
482 771
483 771
480 771
476 768
A76 772
476 77"
482 773
477 769
A62 785
163 787
"62 784
463 784
462 783
201 Third Ave., Frankfort 49* 764
Hiqher Education
(P)
Hamilton Colleqe
Kirkland Colleqe
Mohawk Valley Community Colleqe - Utica
- Rome
State University at Utica-Rome
Munson-Williams-Proctor School of Art
Mental Hygiene
(P)
Marcy Psychiatric Center
Dtiea Psychiatric Center
Rome Development Center
Ai rports
(Ta)
Griffiss A1r Force Base
One Ida County Airport
Riverside Airport
Highland Airport
466 766
466 765
482 769
465 785
480 771
475 779
A79 772
460 781
466 786
469 777
478 775
486 762
-------
- 37 -
TABLE 23
UTICA-ROME AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
POINT SOURCES - PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
(ACTUAL EMISSIONS AT LEAST 25 TONS/YEAR)
UTM Grid Location Particulate Land Area
Name E N Emission Hectare
1. Union Fork & Hoe 494.5 764.7 31.17 10
Frankfort
2. Remington Arms 497.5 762.3 185.16 10
Ilion
3. Standard Desk Company 501.4 763.4 489.79 3
Herkimer
4. Caswell Supply Co. Inc. (Feed) 462.7 797.9 25.59 1
Rome
5. Rome Cable 462.0 798.3 82.71 8
Rome
6. Rome Division Revere 464.5 783.8 111.29 38
Rome
7. Rome Manufacturing Co. Div. 465,0 786.0 48.51 3
Rome
8. Aerospace Elec. Sys. Dept. (GE) 476.8 768.3 61.54 , 4.5
Utica
9. Special Metals Corporation 472.1 768.4 51.31 20
New Hartford
10. Kelsey Hayes Company 476.7 774.3 39.50 9
Whitesboro
-------
- 38
MINOR CIVIL DIVISION INDEX
UTICA-ROME AQMA AREAS
WHERE KILOMETER SQUARES MAY BE CONSOLIDATED
U.T.M. GRID
770
760
750
740N
420E
430
-------
- 39 -
EXAMPLE OF LAND USE CODING SHEET
C»v .* \ n t>ni
.-y * '- ' ^y4 i
.*>_j [County (Primary)
i|_«j ji-l.O.U. (Primary) 7T-.»-»» o^ /Yc^
6-7 :V1) 1 -"U'.o
8-9 County (Secondary)
10-11
12-13
\ 0
-
15-16
17-18
ip -no
21-02
25-26
H.C.D. (.Secondary)
Percentage (Secondary)
*
TOTAL ACiTuCULYUHAL LAND AUliA
Ac t i. vo :
Orchard - area
« t j ,
\ Ir.oyru'd - area
Horticulture area .. ;.'-
HV^h-lnlunslty cropland - area
Cropland & crop, , pasture - ar««n
27-28 | Pasture - area
s Inactive:
29-30
31-32
Kx tensive - area
Intensive - area-
Livestock operations:
33
34
Dairy - number
Poultry - number
35 Active farmsteads - number
36-37 Specialty farms - type
38-39
40 -«ll '
42-43
44-45
46-47
48
49
50-51 '
52-53
54-55
56
57
58
59-60
61
62-63
64-65
66-67
68-69
yo-yi
va
73-ya
- area
*
TOTAL KOHESTLAND AHliA
Nonproductive - area
Productive: Mat. stands - area
Plantations - area '
Number of areas t ;>25 acres i
. ^25 acres . d
TOTAL WATER AREA (
Lakes & ponds:
Natural -.area
Artificial - area
Natural - number
Artificial ( <1 acre) - number
Artificial ( >1 acre) - number
Lake & resevoir shoreline - miles
Streams and rivera - order
- miles
- area . ,
*
Vetlands: Shrub swamps - area
Wooded ownmpa « area
Uirine vmtor - area
JTM Grid Ceil No, "
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- 40 -
A±
xT
' j?-3
6
7-8 .
9-10
11-12
13 '
*
11-15 -
16-17
10-19
20-21
22-23
21-25
26-27
28-29
30
31-32
33-31
35-36
37-38
39-10
11-12
13-11
15-16
17-19.
50-52
53
51-55
56-57
58-59
60-61
62-63 i
61
65-66
67-69
70.-71
72
73-7d
7Q
i y
fiO
l«,..n
County (Primary)
M.U.IJ. (Primary)
Covmt'y (Tertiary)
M.C.D. (Tertiary)
Perccntcise (Tertiary)
'
TOTAL RKvSIDiiHTiAL LA.-JU AKEA R
Residential:
Hir.h density ,«1/0 acre) lib
f-'.cd. density (1/8-1/2 acrer J- Hm
Low density '()l/2 acre) Rl
Strip dev. (>1 per 1000') Rs
Rural hamlet ( 1000 pop.) Rr
Cottage ' !
Shoreline devl - area Rk
- miltiS k//
Apartment -buildings - number ffz
Rural non-farm residences - no* Itx
TOTAL Ctoli'igllCIAL, I W DUST. ARiiA C,I
ConiinerciAl: Ux-ban Cu
Shopping centers Co
Strip development Co
Industrial: Light 11
Heavy In
TOTAL OUTDOOR RKCRblATlOrt AREAS > OR
Typus (Primary)
'
Typo o, (Other)'
fOTAL EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRY AREA E
Open mining: .
Active - stone quarries'-. Eq
sand an'd gravel £3
metallic minerals Em
Inactive -.total .area / Ea
Underground mining - type u-*
TOTAL PUi3. & SEHI -PUtl, LA140 AREA P
"ypes
TM Grid Cell llo.
rder or oord in data bank
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NAME
|M».
"jflVIII
<~5
I"8
11-12
13
16
17-18
19-20
21-22
23
2^-25
26-27
28-29
30-31
32-33
36-33
-A'i-45
'
V Y3-78
II
ou
County (Primary)
.M.C.D. (Primary)
County (Quaternary)
M.C.D. (Quaternary)
jPercentage (Quaternary)
1H-15 TOTAL TRANSPORTATION AUK A
!Highway - highest category
! ' - area
1 Railway - typo of facility
- area . /
i
Airport - type of facility
- area
jBargo Canal -type of facility
1 . - area
Marino - por-t area
'- shipyard area
- lock area
Comm, & Util. - type
- area
SLOPE;
0-10^
UTM Orid Cell Not
111
Order of card in data bank
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tASl fiORTH f
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489.00 764.00
-4-9Q (Hi 764 nn
491.00 764.00
'19" co 7ft'i nn
493.00 764.00
4-9 '\ » 0 0 764 00
495.00 764.00
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483.00 763.00
48't 00 763 00
485. UO 763.00
4S6 UO 763 00
487.00 763.00
«f«8 00 7&3 00
489.00 763.00
491. O'J 763.00
4^2 00 763 nO
493.00 763.00
(*V4 (it) 7e,3 nn -
495.00 763.00
UHtf, (jii 7g2»00
485.00 762.00
4B6 00 762 00
487.00 762.00
iffig oo 7&o no
489.00 762.00
«t9n (in 7^2 00
491.00 762.00
492 00 762 00
493.00 762.00
49U.UO 7A2.00- .
487.00 761.00
489.00 761.00
uyn nn 7^1 nn
491.00 761.00
4VO 11 fl 7£.1 nn
493,00 761.00
490.00 760.00
491.00 760.00---
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-------
-V*
EXAMPLE OF UPDATED MAP OVERLAY
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------- |