IMPACT OF STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLANS ON
FOSSIL FUELS AVAILABILITY AND SZOUIREMENTS
May 17, 1972
(Revised July 1972)
Notice
This document is a preliminary draft.
It has not been formally released by EPA
and should not at this stage be construed
to represent Agency policy. It is being
circulated for comment on its technical
accuracy and policy implications.
DRAFT
-------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I INTRODUCTION
SUMMARY
SECTION II
SECTION III
SECTION IV
SECTION V
SECTION VI
APPENDIX A
APPROACH
SUMMARY OF SULFUR REGULATIONS
AVAILABILITY/REQUIREMENTS PROJECTIONS
COAL
OIL
GAS
FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEMS
RECAPITULATION OF OPTIONS ABOVE PROJECTED
BASELINES
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
STRATEGY ANALYSIS
PROCEDURE
DESCRIPTION OF STRATEGIES
IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL LOW-IMPACT
STRATEGIES
Potential Low-Impact Strategy A
Potential Low-Impact Strategy B
Potential Low-Impact Strategy C
IMPLICATIONS OF POTENTIAL LOW-IMPACT
STRATEGIES
MODIFICATIONS TO LOW-IMPACT STRATEGIES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
COSTS
DETAILED ANALYSES OF ST!UTEGIES
Page
iv
v
1
7
13
17
23
26
32
38
39
40
45
45
45
46
49
52
55
55
56
57
58
58
61
iii
-------
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
1 COAL STATE SULFUR REGULATIONS 18
2 RESIDUAL OIL STATE SULFUR REGULATIONS 19
3 STATES SERVED BY MAIN COAL PRODUCTION REGIONS 28
4 COAL AVAILABILITY/REQUIREMENTS AT SIP (1975) 29
5 1975 COAL AVAILABILITY AND REQUIREMENTS AT SIPS 30
6 1975 COAL DEFICITS AFTER TRANSFERS AND BLENDING 31
7 1975 OIL DEFICITS AFTER TRANSFERS AND BLENDING
BY PAD 34
8 1975 OIL AVAILABILITY/REQUIREMENTS AT SIPS 35
9 OIL AVAILABILITY/REQUIREMENTS AT SIP (1975) 36
10 1975 OIL AVAILABILITY (BASELINE AND OPTIONS) AND
REQUIREMENTS 37
11 1975 COAL DEFICITS AFTER TRANSFERS AND BLENDING 51
IV
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
I SIP SULFUR CONTENT LIMITATIONS FROM REGULATIONS
AS USED IN PROJECTIONS 21
II 1970 CONSUMPTION (STATIONARY SOURCES) 24
III SUMMARY OF AVAILABILITY AND REQUIREMENTS
(STATIONARY SOURCES) 25
IV 1975 REQUIREMENTS AND AVAILABILITY FOR COAL
MEETING SIP REGULATIONS 27
V 1975 REQUIREMENTS AND AVAILABILITY FOR OIL MEETING
SIP REGULATIONS 33
VI SUPPLY/DEMAND OF FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEMS 41
VII RANGE OF STRATEGIES 42
VIII SUMMARY OF STRATEGIES 47
IX SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE LOW-IMPACT STRATEGIES 53
X PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF INCREMENTAL CLEAN FUEL
COSTS 60
A-l STRATEGY ONE (1977) 63
A-2 STRATEGY TWO (1975) 64
A-3 STRATEGY THREE (1975) 65
A-4 STRATEGY FOUR (1975) 66
A-5 STRATEGY FIVE (1975) APPLY SIPs ONLY TO PRIORITY I
AND II SOURCES 67
A-6 STRATEGY SIX (1975) APPLY SIPs ONLY TO PRIORITY I
SOURCES 68
A-7 STRATEGY VII - POSSIBLE LOW-IMPACT STRATEGY A - 1975 69
A-8 STRATEGY VIII - POSSIBLE LOW-IMPACT STRATEGY B .- 1975 70
A-9 STRATEGY IX - POSSIBLE LOW-IMPACT STRATEGY C - 1975 71
-------
SECTION T
INTRODUCTION
This report presents preliminar}' results of a study of the impact
on the nation's fuel resources of stationary-source fossil fuels com-
bustion regulations contained in State Implementation Plans (SIPs). It
is being performed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with
contractor support from The MITRE Corporation. Assistance and techni-
cal support also are being provided by members of the Interagency Task
Force on State Implementation Plans and by their respective organiza-
tions. This study is part of an overall analysis of the impact of SIPs
on the nation's economy, transportation, fuel resources, and society.
It is being conducted in parallel with a detailed evaluation of the
acceptability under the law of each state plan as submitted.
The key questions to be answered are:
(1) What are technically feasible strategies which will provide
the fossil fuel requirements for (a) the aggregated SIPs and
(b) achievement of Federal ambient air quality standards?
(2) What are the costs and impacts of these strategies?
(3) What are the preferred strategies, and what actions are re-
quired to implement them?
This report is concerned with answers to the first of these ques-
tions and with an initial assessment of cost and impact of possible
strategies. Subsequent reports will present a more detailed analysis
of cost, impact, and actions necessary to implement preferred strategies.
-------
The results of analyses performed to identify fuel shortages and the
potential for acquiring additional fuel also are summarized in this
report. A detailed discussion of these analyses is relegated to sup-
porting documentation.
The study approach is to (1) identify potential shortages of
fuels that can meet SIP regulations, (2) investigate strategies which
might eliminate these shortages consistent with SIP regulations and/or
the ambient air quality standards, (3) identify actions required to
implement each strategy, and (4) evaluate the impact of alternative
strategies based on criteria such as cost, environment, employment,
required government policy, national security, foreign trade, and bal-
ance of payments.
The Clean Air Amendments of 1970 provide for the setting of
national primary and secondary ambient air quality standards. EPA has
set standards for six pollutants, and State Implementation Plans were
required to be submitted to EPA on January 30, 1972, to provide for the
achievement of primary and secondary air quality standards for these
pollutants. EPA must approve or disapprove each portion of each plan
by May 30, 1972, or must promulgate by July 30 (or later if prescribed
by EPA) acceptable plans or portions of plans for states which have
failed to revise their plans as required to meet the provisions of the
law.
Primary standards must be achieved within three years of plan
approval but EPA may grant, if requested and justified by the state,
Rosenberg, L. S., et__al. Availability and Requirements of Stationary-
Source Fossil Fuels - 1.975 and 197'/" , MTR-6221.
2
-------
a two-year extension. A further one-year extension likewise may be
granted for specific sources or classes of sources. SIPs for secondary
standards may be submitted under specified conditions up to 18 months
after the May 30 deadline, and must specify a reasonable time at which
secondary standards will be attained.
From the above, primary standards must be attained in the 1975-
1977 time period, although specific sources, or classes of sources,
could be exempt until 1978.
Fossil fuel combustion is a significant, contributor to emissions of
three of the six pollutants for which ambient air quality standards have
been set. These are particulates, nitrogen oxides (NO ), and sulfur
X
oxides (SO ). The contribution by weight of stationary-source fuel com-
X
bustion to emissions of these pollutants in 1967 was 42 percent, 43
percent, and 73 percent, respectively.
The technology for control of particulates is well advanced, and
state-of-the-art control systems provide high collection efficiencies
with current fuels. Thus, the particulate standard should have little
effect on fuel requirements. NO control technology is less advanced,
and control systems and techniques are not yet available which can be
applied to all existing stationary sources to reduce emissions to satis-
factory levels. For new installations, however, coal, oil, and gas-fired
boilers are available which will meet emission control standards for
NO . It is anticipated that the initial strategy for NO control will
A X
be based primarily on transportation controls (transportation contributes
-------
47 percent of NO emissions) and reductions resulting from enforcement
of new source standards. The control of NO emission levels from sta-
X
tionary sources therefore is not expected to have a great impact on
the fuels market, and is not considered in this study.
The control of SO emissions from fuel combustion at stationary
x
sources is much more critical since about 75 percent of the national
emissions of SO are from these sources. Therefore, a large part of
x
any reduction in SO must be achieved through control of fuel combus-
J x
tion. The control strategy specified by the states is to limit for
each fuel type the maximum sulfur content allowed consistent with attain-
ment of ambient air quality standards. Alternatively, control systems,
primarily flue ga.s desulfurization, can be used with high-sulfur fuels
in large boilers to attain the same objective. However, the projected
availability of flue gas desulfurization systems will restrict the use
of this option in the 1975-1977 time period. The primary means of
meeting regulations, therefore, is to shift to low-sulfur fuels. This
approach has the most severe impact on coal. The sulfur content of
coals used by the utilities industry, the largest user of coal, aver-
ages about 2.5 percent. The sulfur content specified by most states
is less than 1 percent. The total requirement for coal used by sta-
tionary sources in 1975 is estimated to be 592 million tons, based on
the assumption that present coal users do not switch to other fuels.
The mismatch of availability and requirements due to sulfur regulations
is projected to create a potential shortage of over 300 million tons
-------
of low-sulfur coal in 1975, again assuming no switching to other fuel
and no use of flue gas desulfurization.
Section II presents a summary of study results including an eval-
uation of alternative strategies. The approach used in conducting the
study is contained in Section III. A summary of state-by-state fuel
sulfur content regulations is presented in Section IV. A summary of
requirement and availability projections is presented in Section V, and
the analyses of alternative strategies are contained in Section VI.
-------
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY
LEFT BLANK
-------
SECTION II
SUMMARY
This analysis demonstrates that the deficits of low-sulfur fuels
created by the requirements of the aggregated State Implementation
Plans can be eliminated by a number of technically feasible strategies.
These strategies require large increases in oil imports, and would
cause relatively large adverse impacts on the nation's economy, bal-
ance of payments, and national security. The least costly and lowest
impact strategies developed to date entail the modification of SIPs in
2
seven to ten states, primarily in the midwest. These states have
major shortages in the amount of low-sulfur coal required in 1975 under
proposed SIP regulations. Their shortages comprise about 90 percept of
the total projected low-sulfur coal deficit of the nation. Modifica-
tions of SIP sulfur regulations which are envisioned will permit the
continued use of present sources of coal in regions which do not require
low-sulfur fuel to meet SO ambient air quality standards.
x i j-
Nine strategies analyzed to date are described in this report.
These are summarized below:
(1) Four strategies were based on the assumption that all SIP
sulfur regulations would be enforced as proposed. Varying
quantities of additional low-sulfur fuel and flue gas desul-
furization systems were assumed in accordance with results
Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Tennessee,
Indiana, and possibly Alabama, Georgia, and New York.
-------
of prior studies. One strategy assumed implementation was
delayed from 1975 to 1977.
The strategy which assumed implementation in 1975 and
the most likely incremental increases in low-sulfur fuel and
the utilization of flue gas desulfurization systems would
require 740 million additional barrels of imported oil per
year. Most of this is required to replace coal deficiencies
in. the ten states previously identified. The value of these
oil imports is approximately $3 billion per year.
(2) Two strategies were based on the nationwide deferment of
sulfur regulations in Air Quality Control Regions (AQCRs)
which have low ambient air SO pollution levels. The federal
Jl
SO ambient air quality primary (health-related) standard is
jC
3
80 micrograms per cubic meter (yg/m ), and the secondary
3
(welfare) standard is 60 yg/m . Deferment of regulations was
considered only for Priority III AQCRs (< 60 yg/'m ) iu one
strategy and for both Priority III and Priority II (60-100
yg/m ) AQCRs in the second strategy. The first of these
strategies reduced required new oil imports from 740 million
barrels to 55 million barrels. Deferment of regulations in
Priority II AQCRs reduced new oil imports to 152 million
barrels.
The potential value of modifying SIPs was demonstrated
by these strategies. It was determined that most of these
benefits were derived from the seven to ten states which have
8
-------
the greatest coal deficiencies. Concentration only on these
states would yield most of the benefits and eliminate the
need for all states to restructure their plans. The next
strategies therefore assumed that SIPs would be modified
in no more than ten states.
(3) The remaining three strategies discussed are based on modi-
fication of SIPs in nine and ten states only. Potential
reductions in low-sulfur fuel requirements may be achieved
by the following modifications:
(a) Priority III AQCRs - Since SO ambient air quality for
A
these AQCRs is 60 yg/m or less, the regulations in these
regions may be deferred without violating either the
primary or secondary ambient air quality standards.
(b) Priority II AQCRs - Application of regulations in prior-
ity II AQCRs which have a present ambient air quality less
than 80 ug/m may be deferred. This assumes only primary
standards will be met and achievement of secondary stan-
dards will be deferred. The Clean Air Amendments of 1970
specify only that secondary standards must be met by a
"reasonable" time, but specify no date. Priority II AQCRs
3
span the ambient air quality range of 60-100 yg/m . In
those which now exceed the 80 yg/m standard, emission
limits for selected sources, generally located in non-
urban areas, might be decontrolled or revised if they do
-------
not contribute significantly to ambient air pollution
levels above the primary standard.
(c) Priority I and IA AQCRs - The ambient air pollution
levels in these AQCRs now exceed the primary standard.
Requirements for low-sulfur fuel can be reduced, however,
by deferring or by revising emission limits for sources
(again, generally located in nonurban areas) which do
not contribute significantly to ambient air pollution
levels.
Based on preliminary estimates of low-sulfur fuel savings, the
application of these strategies in ten states would reduce the amount
of additional oil imports to nearly zero if the availability of seme
additional gas is assumed, or to 150 to 250 million barrels of oil
assuming no additional gas.
While additional analysis must be done, it appears that strategies
such as these which involve modification of sulfur regulations for
selected SIPs will result in minimum impact and lowest implementation
costs consistent with the achievement of ambient air quality.
Future analyses to be accomplished include the development of
better estimates of low-sulfur fuel requirements based on studies of
S°x emissions and sources located in critical states and AQCRs. The
strategies shown illustrate the magnitude of low-sulfur fuel savings
which can be achieved but more exact estimates are needed before re-
vised SIP sulfur regulations can be developed.
10
-------
Preliminary costs developed for each strategy are presented in
Section VI, Technical Discussion. These provide a measure of the
economic impact of alternative strategies, but do not consider many
key cost elements such as cost differentials between oil and coal
delivered to midwest consumers and the cost of plant modifications
necessary to switch from coal to oil. More detailed cost analyses
now are in progress and will be presented in a subsequent report.
11
-------
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY
LEFT BLANK
12
-------
SECTION III
APPROACH
Of major concern in assessing the impact of SIPs for achieving
ambient air quality standards on fossil fuel resources is the effect of
stationary-source sulfur oxide regulations. As previously noted (see
Introduction), the effect of particulates and NO regulations on fuels
A
utilization is not expected to be significant and, therefore, has not
been evaluated in this study. Primary emphasis was placed on the 1975-
1977 time period since the law provides that controls must be estab-
lished by this time, although specified sources or classes of sources
may be exempt until 1978 and waivers temporarily exempting individual
sources for an additional time period may be granted if justified.
The first phase of the study was to establish a firm baseline for
the' supply and utilization of present fuels. The baseline year selected
was 1970, the latest year for which adequate data was available. Avail-
ability and requirements data was developed by state, type fuel (distil-
late and residual oil, coal, gas), and sulfur content. Requirements
were further segregated into residential/commerical, industrial, and
utilities sectors.
The 1970 baseline data then was used to develop baseline projec-
tions to 1975 and 1977 using appropriate growth factors. Projections
for fuel requirements for utilities were based on information concern-
ing present and planned power plants as given in "Steam Electric Power
Plant Factors, 1971." The type of fuel demanded by utilities was
13
-------
derived from FPC data. For the other two sectors, the requirements for
each type of fuel were projected using state-by-state population growth
factors. This is referred to as the "no switching" case.
It is important to note that the baseline no-switching requirements
projections are not comparable on a fuel-by-fuel basis with other esti-
mates. The total energy demand is comparable, however, as is shown in the
separate availability/requirements paper.
Baseline availability projections by sulfur content were made for
each fuel to 1975 and 1977. The essential assumption for these projec-
tions was that no new pressure for increased availability would be
applied solely as a result of SIP demand for low-sulfur fuel. Avail-
ability projections for each fuel are discussed in detail in Section IV
of this paper.
The next step in the study was to obtain from the State Implemen-
tation Plans the state-by-state sulfur regulations for each fuel. The
regulations then were applied to the 1975 and 1977 baseline requirements
projections to determine the new requirement for each low-sulfur fuel.
The revised projected fuels requirements were then compared with
the projected fuels availability to determine the magnitude of resultant
shortages and overages. Separate analyses then were made to estimate
projected incremental availability and costs resulting from various op-
tions to increase the availability of low-sulfur fuels above projected
baselines. These analyses, which are documented in supporting option
papers, also considered actions required in order to utilize these
14
-------
options, environmental impacts, balance of payments impacts, national
security impacts, and other factors. An analysis of the projected
availability of flue gas desulfurization systems was also conducted.
The above data then was used to develop several alternative stra-
tegies to meet fuel requirements as constrained by current SIPs and/or
ambient air quality standards, These strategies were then evaluated
with respect to cost, environmental impact, actions needed, and other
criteria.
15
-------
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY
LEFT BLANK
16
-------
SECTION IV
SUMMARY OF SULFUR REGULATIONS
The primary strategies used to control sulfur oxide emissions are
to limit the sulfur content of the fuel or to limit the SO emitted at
the stack.
Figure 1 indicates the distribution of State Implementation Plan
standards for coal regulations. This figure provides a good overview of
the regulations but is not completely accurate, since some states have
separate regulations for selected Air Quality Control Regions within
the state. A detailed summary of all AQCR sulfur regulations is pro-
vided in a separate report. For those states which have different
regulations for different AQCRs, it was determined that a population-
weighted average could be used in computations for the state without
compromising the results.
Reference to Figure I shows that about half the states (24) have
sulfur standards for coal with smlfur content less than 0.67-lb. sul-
fur/10 3TU. By comparison, in 1969 the average sulfur content for
coal burned in steam-electric plants, which used about 75 percent of
the coal, was 2.1-lb. sulfur/10 BTU. The new source performance stan-
dard for coal requires emissions of less than 0.6-lb. sulfur/10 BTU.
Figure 2 indicates the distribution of state sulfur standards for
oil. Eight states limit sulfur content to under 0.28-lb. sulfur/10
BTU, and another 19 place limits between 0.33- and 0.56-lb. sulfur/106
BTU. In 1969, the average sulfur content of oil burned in steam-electric
17
-------
FIGURE 1
COAL
STATE SULFUR REGULATIONS
25-1
20-
UJ
ca
10-
5 -
24
21
4
2
<0.8% 0.8-1.6% 1.6-2.5% >2.5%
(<.67 Ib (.67-1.33 LB (1.33-2.0G LB (>2.03 LB
S/106 BTU) S/10C BTU) S/106 BTU) S/iQb BTU)
SULFUR CONTENT RANGES
-------
FIGURE 2
RESIDUAL OIL
STATE SULFUR REGULATIONS
201
CO
10-
VO
5-
8
19
18
5
0.0-0.5% 0.6-1.0% 1.0-2.0% 2.0%
(G.O-.28 LB (.33-. 55 LB (.61-1.11LB (>1.11 LB
S/106 BTU) S/106 BTU) S/IO^ ETU) S/106 BTU)
SULFUR CONTENT RANGES
-------
plants was 0.93-lb. sulfur/10 BTU. The new source performance standard
for oil requires emissions of less than 0.4-lb. sulfur/10 BTU.
The sulfur limitations used in developing the requirements analysed
in this study are shown in Table I. As previously noted, the regula-
tions listed for some states are composites of several AQCRs within the
state.
20
-------
EMISSION LIMITATIONS
FUKL COSTKMT LIMITATIONS
POUNDS SO, MO6 BTU
CO
»-^
f-t
O
\^
H
u
w
a
(*!
OH
a
M
O
w
to
y i
ff
CO
3.0-C
~2.0-R
1.8-C
1.3-C
1.0-R
1.25-R
0.3-R
0.3-C
0.65-C
l.l-C
2.7-C
0.7-C
1.6-C
2.5-R
1.6-C
1.0-R
2.1-C
2.7-C
0.9-C
0.9-C
l.S-R
1.0-R
l.O-C
0.9-C
1.5-R
0.7-C
0.5-R
1.0-R
3.S-R
2.0-B
li ana ttujrvLuri
A'Tcfor* Fi'Jeral
S BY wr.lCIIT
Coal
0.7-C
0.5-C
0.7-C
0.8-C
0.7-C
0.5-C
0.5-R
1.0-R
0.5-R
0.8-C
0.8-C
0.7-C*
0.7-R
0.8-C
0.7-C
>3.0-C
1.9-C
0.7-C
2.0-C
1.5-R
1.0-R
0.3-R
0.5-R
1.5-R
>3.0-C
2.0-R
0.9-C
0.8-C
1.0-R
1.35-C
0.2-R
0.18-C
0.65-C
1.0-R
1.4-:
0.55-C
0.7-C
1.0-R
1.2-C
1.0-R
1.4-C
1.5-C
0.55-C
1.4-C
l.O-C
1.0-R
0.7-C
1.4-C
2.0-S
0.7-C
0.5-R
1.0-R
3.5-R
:.o-c
ti tlic. ruguLacloti
rt-yulut ions were
EHUIV.\LFH|hlN
POUNDS
OU
0.50
0.50
0.72
0.72
0.28
0.50
0.28
0.56
0.28
0.39
0.39
0.28
0.17
0.39
0.61
0.72
1.50
0.39
1.50
0.83
0.28
0.28
0.39
0.83
1.67
1.11
1.00
0.72
0.56
0.69
0.17
0.17
0.36
0.61
1.50
0.39
0.89
1.39
0.89
0.56
1.17
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.83
0.39
0.28
O.SO
1.94
L.ll
W.IH t.ikcn
asuumcd.
S/10 11 LU
Co ill
0.58
0.42
0.58
0.67
0.58
0.42
0.42
0.83
0.42
0.67
0.67
0.58
0.58
0.67
0.58
2.50
1.58
0.58
1.67
1.25
0.83
0.25.
0.42
' 1.25
2.50
1.67
0.75
0.67
0.83
1.12
0.17
0.15
0.54
0.83
1.17
0.46
0.58
0.33
1.00
0.83
1.17
1.25'
0.46
1.17
0.83
0.83
0.58
1.17
1.67
0.58
0.42
0.83
2.92
1.67
L rum
21
-------
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY
LEFT BLANK
22
-------
SECTION V
AVAILABILITY/REQUIREMENTS PROJECTIONS
Projections of availability and requirements for coal, oil, gas,
and flue gas desulfurization systems in 1975 and 1977 are summarized
in this Ejection. The procedures used in developing these projections
were described in Section III, Approach. Detailed discussions and
data are provided in separate papers on availability/requirements and
options for clean energy.
The 1970 national fossil fuels consumption for stationary sources
is shown in Table II. Separate consumption figures are shown for the
three user sectors - steam-electric., industrial, and commerical/resi-
dential. The total energy consumed by stationary sources is about 60
percent of the U.S. energy consumption, with the remainder primarily in
transportation. In 1970, energy from coal provided 25 percent of total
requirements for stationary sources. About 20 percent was derived from
oil and 55 percent from natural gas. The utilization of coal is of
particular importance. In 1970, 77 percent was used by steam-electric
plants, 20 percent by industry, and 3 percent by commercial/residential
users. Thus, strategies designed to eliminate the impact of the low-
sulfur coal shortage could have significant effect on the nation's
steam-electric power plants.
Our projections of national availability and requirements for coal,
oil, and gas in 1975 and 1977 are summarized in Table III.
23
-------
TABLE II
1970 CONSUMPTION
(STATIONARY SOURCES)
STEAM ELECTRIC
INDUSTRIAL
COMM. RES ID.
TOTALS
% OF TOTAL BTU
COAL
106 TONS
327.90
82.17
13.85
423.92
1015 BTU
7.71
1.93
.33
9.97
%
77.3
19.4
3.3
100.0
25.4
OIL
106 BBLS
325.03
228.26
708.72
1262.01
I015 BTU
2.03
1.43
4.43
7.89
%
25.7
18.1
56.2
100.0
20.1
GAS
1012FT3**
3.92
10.66*
6.81
21.39
1015 BTU
3.92
10.66
6.81
21. .9
%
18.3
49.8
31.9
100.0
54.5
BTU TOTALS
).015 BTU
13.66
14.02 .
.11.57
39.25
% OF TOTAL
34.8
35.7
29.5
100.0
100.0
Includes amounts classified as "non steam electric Interruptible" and "other"
which includes gas company usage and unaccounted for losses, transmission mainline
fuel, and use not classified. This is estimated to be 4.65 y.
Equivalent voluca at 1000 BTU per cubic foot.
-------
TABLE III
SUMMARY OF AVAILABILITY AND REQUIREMENTS
STATIONARY SOURCES
COAL
( 1 u6 tonal
i.il.
( Hi6 barrels)
, A
(l'.i12 ft3)
1970
CONSUMPTION
424
1,262
21.4
1975
REQUIRED
AT JIP
5922
1.439
25.2
AVAILABLE
AT SIP1
2683
1,048
24.8
DEFICIT
AT SIP
324
391
0.4
AVAILABLE
AT ALL
SULXUR
LEV1CLS
38C3
1,726
24.8
HIGH
SULFUR
SURPLUS
(ABOVE
sri-)
318
678
O5
1977
REQUIRED
AT SIP
615
1,505
25.7
AVAILABLE
AT SI?1
290
1,144
DEFICIT
AT SIP
'325
361
24.3 1 '. 1.4
AVAILABLE
AT ALL
SULFUR
LEVELS'
675
1,945
24.3
- HIGH
SULFUR
VURPLUS.
(ABOVE
'STPT
385
801
0*
Includes reasonable blending and transfer.
Excludes power plant retirements estimated at 7,000 Mw of installed capacity.
Includes 25 x 10 tons currently under development In eastern elope Rocky Mountain states.
Assumes no sultchlng to gaa from other fuels (see dlacusslon in Section III, Approach).
Sulfur content in gas is negligible.
-------
COAL
Table IV summarizes the projected national and regional 1975
requirements and availability of coal meeting SIP sulfur regulations.
The geographic area covered by each of the three regions (east, central,
and west) is shown in Figure 3. The total requirement for coal, as-
suming no switching to oil or gas, is 592 million tons. The availabil-
ity of coal meeting SIP requirements is 268 million tons, leaving a
deficit of 324 million tons. A comparison of coal requirements and
availabilities meeting SIP regulations is shown on Figure 4 plotted as
a function of coal sulfur content. It is seen that the shortage is
entirely under 0.6-lb. sulfur/10 BTU.
As seen from Figure 5, the projected supply of coal under 0.6-lb.
sulfur/10 BTU available in 1975 and utilized by all regions is only 73.5
million tons, including an additional 25 million tons of coal (see
Table IV, footnote 2) from mines on the eastern slopes of the Rocky
Mountains available for shipment to the Central United States. Figure
5 also shows that the full use of options for increasing the low-sulfur
coal supply can result in an increase of 45 million tons of low-sulfur
coal by 1975. This, added to the 263 from baseline, provides a possi-
ble total of 313 million tons of acceptable coal, still leaving a
deficit of 279 million tons. A state-by-state breakdown of coal defi-
cits is shown in Figure 6.
26
-------
TABLE IV
1975 REQUIREMENTS AND AVAILABILITY FOR COAL MEETING SIP REGULATIONS
(IN 106 TONS)
Eastern Coal
Region
Central Coal
Region
Western Coal
Region
TOTALS
PRODUCTION
< 0.6 BARRELS
S/BTU MEETING
REQUIREMENTS
28
0.5
452
73.5
BLEND
AND
TRANSFER
TO MEET
. DEMAND
57
231
(25)1
55
COAL ABOVE
0.6 LB.
S/106 BTU
THAT MEETS
REOUCREMENTS
89
38.5
12
139.5
TOTAL
AVAILABLE
AT SIP
174
62
32
268
REQUIREMENT
AT SIP
276
270
46
592
DEFICIT
102
208
14
324
It is estimated that on the average, 25 x 10 tons of better grade coal shipped from Montana/
Wyoming to the Central region will be the BTU equivalent of 23 x 10 tons of Central coal.
Includes 25 million tons of coal mined In Montana/Wyoming specifically for export to Central
region.
-------
NJ
00
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
INTERIOR REGION
*V»
-------
SO
600 -
500 -
./> 400 _
o
i
o
300 _
2CO _
ICO -
If
f!
tj
592
CUMULATIVE DFFICIT AT SIP BY S'JLFUR
COiiTENT WITH BLEIiD & TRAi.SFLR
324
r
.2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2,2 2.4 2.6 .2.3 3.0
L3 S/10G BTU
3.6
FIGURE 4
-------
- BASELINE
AVAILABILITY
268 Y, 106
1975
REQUIREMENT
AT REVJLATIGNS
X!
*Sl
^OPTIONS
^ 45 X 106 "
RA<;FI IMF
DEFICIT
324 Y. 106
-H
o
COAL BELOW
.6 LB/106 BTU
MEETING
REQUIREMENTS
>f r K.
BLENDING AND
TRANSFERS
INCLUDING
25 X 10^ TONS
or ROCKY
MOUNTAIN COAL
LXI'Ukil.!) TO
CENTRAL
REGION
* r r .. ^
4 L)J v
COAL ABOVE .6 LB S/105
BTU MEETING REQUIREMENTS
i
>-<
LU
LU
_ J
LU
r
1
1
' o
1 >-
1 i
uj |C_> o;
13 ,<_) CO
U;J 1 1 J UJ
'~ 1^ °
A /
73.5
128.5
268
313
5S2 X 1
TONS
FIGURE 5
1975 COAL AVAILABILITY AND REQUIREMENTS AT SIPS
-------
AL \ GA
12.49 1 13.02
FIGURE 6
1975 COAL DEFICITS AFi'liR TRANSFERS AND BLENDING
(106 TONS)
-------
OIL
Table III summarizes the projected 1975 and 1977 availability and
requirements of fuel oils meeting SIP sulfur regulations. The total
requirement for oil is 1,439 x 10 barrels in 1975 with an availability
at SIP regulation of 1,048 x 10 barrels. The resultant projected de-
ficit in low-sulfur oil is 391 x 10 barrels in 1975. The 1977 situa-
tion, shown in the same table, results in a projected low-sulfur oil
deficit of 361 x 10 barrels.
Table V summarizes the projected 1975 requirements, availability,
and deficits of oil meeting SIP sulfur regulations by PAD district.
These deficits are shown on a state-by-state basis in Figure 7 , from
which it can be seen that the main problem area is the Eastern United
States, with a deficit of 375 x 10 barrels of low-sulfur oil.
The distributions of availability and requirements of fuel oil by
sulfur content, shown in Figures 8 and 9, indicate that the main
shortage exists in the low-sulfur residual oils with sulfur content at
or below 0.5 percent by weight, whereas Figure 10 indicates that the
full exercising of options car. increase the availability of oil that
meets SIPs by as much as 1,548 x 10 barrels. It should also be noted
that in 1975 a projected 678 x 10 barrels of oil with sulfur content
above that allowed by SIPs will be available for desulfurization and
use. This amount is one component of the increased low-sulfur content
3
PAD districts are the five Petroleum Administration for Defense
Districts defined by the Office of-Emergency Preparedness.
32
-------
TABLE V
1975 REQUIREMENTS AND AVAILABILITY FOR OIL MEETING
SIP REGULATIONS (IN 1Q6 BBLS)
PAD I
PAD II
PAD III
FAD IV
PAD V
TOTAL
U.S.
AVAILABILITY AT
ALL S LEVELS
1250.7
316.5
27.9
24.2
111.3
1730.6
REQUIREMENTS AT
SIP REGULATIONS
1064.9
240.3
21.4
13.6
93.3
1438.5
AVAIL. AT REGS
AFTER TRANSFERS
652.9
236.4
21.4
18.6
73.8
1022.6
AVAIL. AT REGS AFTER
TRANSFER & BLENDING
689.9
240.3
21.4
18.6
77.3
1047.5
DEFICIT AT REGS
AFTER TRANSFER &
BLENDING
-375
0
0
0
- 16
-391
-------
LO
CD PAD I
r~\ PAD ii
PAD in
PAD iv
PAD V
ource: Bureau of Mines
FIGURE 7
1975 OIL DEFICITS AFTER TRANSFERS AND BLENDING
BY PAD (106 BARRELS)
-------
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 .2 .4 .6 -8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4
% S BY WEIGHT
AVAILABILITY OF DISTILLATE AND RESIDUAL OILS BEFORE BLENDING.
REQUIREMENTS AT SIP.
FIGURE 8
1975 OIL AVAILABILITY/REQUIREMENTS AT SIPS
-------
2000
1800
1600
_,KOO
t
o
31200
C-l
c.j
'?_> 1000
UJ
~ 800
I
400
200
0
.2
1440
CU.'.LILATIVE DEFICIT AT SIP DY SULFUR CONTENT
K'iTH.ELc;:D!i;: & TRANSFER
1050
1
.4
1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - \ - 1 - r
.6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
% S BY l-.'EIGHT
FIGURE 9
OIL AVAILABILITY/REQUIRC'.ENTS AT SIP (1975)
-------
BASELINE
1048 X 105
OPTIONS-
1,548 x I0e
REQUIREMENTS AT
REGULATIONS
BASELINE AVAILABILITY WITHIN
SIP REQUIREMENTS INCLUDING
BLEND IKG AND TRANSFER
"-J 1048 l^
HIGH SULFUR OIL
WITHIN
BASELINE AVAILABLE FOR
DESULFURIZAT
two
-1
ION
< 287 >
^
INCREASED IMPORTS OF
LOW SULFUR OIL
4 n-in K
^j o/u ^J
1048
1439
1726
2506
BBLS X 106
FIGURE 10
19/5 OIL AVAILABILITY (BASELINE AND OPTIONS) AND REQUIREMENTS
-------
oil available due to exercising all oil options, the other component
being increased importing of low-sulfur oil. This latter option can
also involve: importing and desulfurizing additional high-sulfur oil;
4
importing, refining, and desulfurizing additional crude oil; or both.
This puts oil into the role of the swing fuel which can alleviate the
shortages of other low-sulfur fuels.
GAS
The projected availability and requirements for gas in 1975 and
1977 are also shown in Table III. In 1975, a baseline no-switching
12
deficit of 0.4 x 10 cubic feet (0.4 TCP) is projected, while in 1977
the projected deficit is 1.4 TCF.
There are several options available for increasing the availabil-
ity of gas over this baseline. Collectively, in 1975 they have the
maximum potential of increasing the 1975 no-switching baseline gas
availability by about one-seventh. However, it is unlikely that all
of the tabulated increments will be realized. The likely maximum
potential of the individual options is projected as shown in the fol-
lowing table.
Note again that all of these increments will not be realized. In
addition, offshore drilling, not included in the table, is required
just to achieve the baseline. Also, it is possible that a better util-
ization of this clean fuel could be achieved if gas supplies were
redistributed.
4
Throughout this text, low-sulfur imports refers to all of these
techniques.
See gas options paper for assumptions behind these numbers.
38
-------
INDIVIDUAL MAXIMUM POTENTIAL OF OPTION
(1012 cubic feet)
1975 1977
Price Incentive to Producers 0.8 2.5
Increased Pipeline Imports 1.3 0.8
Synthetic Natural Gas 0.6 1.2
Liquified Natural Gas 0.7 1.0
Nuclear Stimulation 0.2 0.4
Maximum Collective Potential 3.6 5.9
FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION SYSTEMS
Removal of SO by flue gas desulfurization is a feasible and often
X
a cost-effective option for both reducing the demand for low-sulfur
fuels and allowing the use of available high-sulfur fuels. At least 20
steam-electric plants have already committed a total of over $200 mil-
lion for flue gas desulfurization systems with many systems scheduled
for start-up in the 1972-1973 time period. These plants represant
about 2 percent of the 1970 total installed fossil fuel generating
capacity.
The 1975 potential market in megawatts (Mw) (for coal-fired
facilities only) is 115,000 Mw to 130,000 Mw, or between 35 and 40 per-
cent of projected 1975 fossil fuel steam-electric installed capacity.
Supply estimates indicate a producer capability, expressed in
terms of power plant installed capacity, of 11,000 Mw to 15,000 Mw per
year in the 1972-1975 period. A minimum of two years is required from
39
-------
placement of order to installation and attainment of operational sta-
tus. The combination of supply and demand estimates (Table VI) indi-
cates the total capacity of power plants with flue gas desulfurization
systems will be approximately 15,000 Mw by 1975 and 47,000 Mw by 1977.
Availability is demand limited through 1973 and supply limited from
1974-1979.
RECAPITULATION OF OPTIONS ABOVE PROJECTED BASELINES
Options for increasing the availability of low-sulfur fuels and
flue gas desulfurization systems establish the bounds on the additional
resources over baseline available for deployment in the strategies to
achieve ambient air quality standards to be examined in the next sec-
tion of this study. It has already been clearly established that at
baseline in both 1975 and 1977, as a result of the SIP regulations of
fuel sulfur content, each fuel exhibits a short fall of low-sulfur
content fuel availability with respect to requirements as follows:
SHORT FALL AT BASELINE CONDITIONS
1975 1977
Coal (10 tors)- 324 325
Oil (10 barrels) 391 361
Gas (1012 ft3) 0.4 1.4
The bounds on additional resources over baseline due to exercising
the options discussed in previous sections are. summarized in Table VII.
It should be noted that in one strategy we do depart from these resource
40
-------
TABLE VI
SUPPLY/DEMAND OF FLUE GAS DESULFURIZATION
SYSTEMS
(103 Mw)
YEAR
PRE-1972
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
ORDERS 1 AVAILABILITY
MAXIMUM
SUPPLY
YEAR
OF ORDER
11
11
15
17
20
23
26
30
35
ESTIMATED
ORDERS FROM
UTILITIES
INDUSTRY
5
5
5
15
17
20
23
26
30
35
DATE SYSTEMS BECOME
OPERATIONAL
PER YEAR CUMULATIVE
1 1
1 2
1 3
6 9
6 15
15 30
17 47
20 67
23 90
26 116
MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL
NEED
115-130
160
41
-------
TABLE VII
RANGE OF STRATEGIES
Baseline and Incremental Availability above Baseline of
Strategic Resources due to Options
Coal Within SIP Requirements (10 tons)
Mechanical Desulfurization
Accelerated Mining in Eastern U.S.
New Mine Openings
Oil Within SIP Requirements (10 barrels)
Desulfurize High-Sulfur Oil in Baseline
Additional Low-Sulfur Imports
Gas (1012 ft3)
Price Incentives
Pipeline Imports (Canada)
Synthetic Natural Gas
Liquified Gas Imports
Flue Gas Desulfurization* (Mw equivalent)
1975
OPTIONS
45
15
15
15
1,548
678
870
1.5
15,000
BASELINE
268
1,048
24.8
0
1977
OPTIONS
60
20
20
20
1,671
801
870
2.0
47,000
BASELINE
290
1,144
24.3
0
*An excursion to 126,000 Mw equivalent is analyzed in one strategy.
-------
bounds. This takes place in the strategy that considers a flue gas
cleaning intensive strategy in which the 1975 maximum potential demand
for such systems is assumed to be met by supply. The purpose of that
strategy is to scope the magnitude of admittedly technologically in-
feasible flue gas cleaning resources required and the resultant conse-
quences for minimizing disruptive impacts. In establishing these
bounds we recognise that maximum collective potentials of all gas
options considered were 3.6 TCF in 1975 and 5.9 TCP in 1977- Our
judgment, in an admittedly highly uncertain area, leads us to believe
that outer bounds of 1.5 and 2.0 TCF in 1975 and 1977, respectively,
are appropriate.
43
-------
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY
LEFT BLANK
-------
SECTION VI
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
In previous sections of this study we have established the magni-
tude of baseline low-sulfur fuel deficits projected to arise in 1975
and 1977 as a result of enforcement of the State Implementation Plans.
We have also established the bounds on the amount of additional low-
sulfur fuels and flue gas cleaning systems that could be made available
by exercising a variety of options. In this section, we examine a
number of strategies for meeting SIP requirements and/or achieving
ambient air quality standards by utilizing the resources made available
by these options.
STRATEGY ANALYSIS
Each strategy is analyzed in a systematic fashion that progres-
sively eliminates components of the baseline deficits by successive
allocation of resources made available by the options. Each strategy
differs in three types of parameters. Two parameters are defined by
the choice of the year in which the SIP regulations will be enforced
and the choice of target states and/or AQCRs considered. The third
type of parameter describes the amounts of additional resources made
available by those options exercised for the particular strategy.
PROCEDURE
The sequence followed in analyzing each strategy is as follows:
(1) State the parameters describing the nature of the strategy
45
-------
and the incremental amount of additional coal, gas, and flue
gas desulfurization equipment made available by the options
exercised in the strategy.
(2) Offset the existing coal deficits at baseline by allocating
available flue gas desulfurization systems to new coal power
plants constructed after 1970.
(3) If all postulated flue gas desulfurization resources are not
exhausted, apply remaining available systems to retrofit up
to 70 percent of older coal-fired plants.
(4) If a surplus of gas exists, allocate it to reduce the coal
deficit.
(5) The high-sulfur surplus oil within the baseline can be desul-
furized. Allocate the desulfurized oil to oil deficits.
(6) If desulfurized oil is still available, allocate it to
remaining coal deficit.
(7) If either coal, oil, or gas deficits remain, import additional
low-sulfur oil to fill the deficits.
Thus, this approach relies upon oil as the swing fuel to fill any defi-
cits remaining after .all postulated availability of coal, gas, and flue
gas cleaning systems produced by the options is exhausted.
DESCRIPTION OF STRATEGIES
We first consider four strategies which will meet each state's SIP
fuel requirements. A summary of these strategies is presented in Table
VIII. Detailed analyses supporting this summary are contained in
Appendix A.
46
-------
TABLE VIII
SUMMARY OF STRATEGIES
STRATEGY NUMBER
PARAMETERS
YEAR
GAS (TCP)
CLEAN COAL (106 tons)
SO CONTROL (Mw)
TARGET
COAL (106 tons)
Requirement at SIP Regulations
Reduction due to Tailored SI?
Application
Availability at SIP Regulations
Deficit 'at SIP Regulations
Deficit after Options
Deficit after SOX Control
Deficit after Gas Switching
Oil Required (106 barrels)
CAS '(1012 ft3)
Requirement at SIP Rep.ul.itlons
Availability at Sli1 ?.... -ulations
Deficit at SIP Regulations
Deficit after Options
Available for Switching
Oil Required (106 barrels)
OIL (106 barrels)
Requirement at SIP Regulations
Reduction due to Tailored SIP
Application
Availability at SIP Regulations
Deficit at SI? Regulations
High-Sulfur Surplus
ADDITIONAL OIL IMPORTS NEEDED
AVAILABLE OIL IN BASELINE NOT
NEEDED
1
1977
2
45
45,000
States
2
1975
0
45
15,000
States
3
1975
0
0
126,000
States
4
.1975
0
0
0
States
615
1,505
592
592
592
1975
0
45
15,000
AQCRs I,
IA, II
592
1,439
1,439
1,439
1,4-39
1975
0
45
15,000
AQCRs I,
IA
592
0
290
325
280
167
142
563
0
268
324
279
241
241
964
0
268
324
324
6
6
24
0
268
324
324
324
324
1,296
47
268
277
232
194
194
776
147
268
177
132
94
94
376
25.7
24.3
1.4
0.6
0.6
0
25.2
24.8
0.4
0'.4
0
64
25.2
24.8
0.4
0.4
. 0
64
25.2
24.8
0.4
0.4
0
64
25.2
24.8
0.4
0.4
0
64
25.2
24.8
0.4
0.4
0
64
1,439
0
1,144
361
801
128
0
0
1,048
391.
678
740
0
0
1,048
391
678
0
199
0
1,048
391
678
1,070
0
159
1,048
232
519
552
0
259
1,048
132
419
152
0
47
-------
In the first strategy, enforcement of SIP regulations is delayed
until 1977 and full use is made of gas, coal, and flue gas desulfuri-
zation options available in 1977- An additional 128 million barrels
of low-sulfur oil is imported per year in order to meet requirements
at SIP.
In the second strategy, SEP fuel requirements are met in all states
in 1975 through the allocation of coal and flue gas desulfurization
resources and by importing an additional 740 million barrels of low-
sulfur oil per year.
In strategy three, SIP requirements are met in all states in 1975
by exercising only the flue gas desulfurization option. This is pre-
sented in order to gauge the impact of using the maximum amount of flue
gas control equipment that could be utilized in 1975. However, this is
technically infeasible. Should such a condition be feasible, however,
199 million barrels of baseline oil imports would not be required.
Strategy four is the last of the series of strategies considered
which meets SIP requirements in all states. In this 1975 strategy, no
options are exercised other than desulfurizing available high-sulfur
oil in the baseline. A total increase of low-sulfur imports of 1,070
million barrels is required to meet SIP requirements.
Strategy five considers the effects of applying the SIP regulations
to only the Priority I, IA, and II AQCRs in 1975 while simultaneously
using the full 1975 incremental availability of coal and flue gas de-
sulfurization options. In this fashion, it is expected that primary
48
-------
and secondary ambient air quality standards can be met, since Priority
III AQCRs are already achieving both primary and secondary SO stan-
X
dards. Thus, by applying SIP regulations to I, IA, and II AQCRs, the
requirement for coal within SIP (for all AQCRs) is reduced by about 8
percent, and oil required within SIP (for all AQCRs) is reduced by about
11 percent. This strategy results in the desulfurization of all avail-
able high-sulfur oil within the baseline plus requirements for an addi-
tional 552 -.-aillion barrels of low-sulfur oil imports above the baseline.
In strategy six, the same approach is used as in strategy five
except that emphasis is given to .applying SIP regulations to Priority I
and IA AQCRs only. Thus, requirements for coal within SIP are reduced
by about 25 percent, and requirements for oil within SIP are reduced by
about 18 percent. Priority III AQCRs already meet primary and secondary
SO standards. It is also known that many Priority II AQCRs already
X
meet primary standards. Thus, it is expected that this type of stra-
tegy, when further refined to additionally apply SIP regulations to
Priority II AQCRs currently above the primary standard, will result in
achievement of primary ambient air quality standards. This strategy
requires the importation of an additional 152 million barrels of low-
sulfur oil above the baseline.
IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL LOW-IMPACT STRATEGIES
The above six cases examined strategies for (1) meeting SIP re-
quirements in all states and (2) achieving primary ambient .air quality
standards in all AQCRs in 1975 by a nationwide selective application of
49
-------
SIPs to those AQCRs currently above the primary standard. The analy-
ses of these strategies have allowed us to more precisely identify the
nature of the major problem associated with achieving ambient air qual-
ity standards by 1975. We have already seen that the deficit of coal
within SIP regulations is the heart of the problem. In Figure 11, we
isolate the state-by-state contribution to the coal deficit. We can
see that a limited number of states in the industrial heartland of the
country contribute the preponderance of this deficit. If New York and
New Jersey are not considered at this time, since they are not expected
to encounter any great difficulties in switching to low-sulfur oil im-
4
ports, then the problem focuses on up to nine states which account for
277 million tons, or 85 percent, of the total nationwide deficit. This
is another way of stating that these nine states currently consume the
major share of high-sulfur coal which will not meet SIP regulations in
1975. Unlike New York and New Jersey, the seven states (exclusive of
Georgia and Alabama) do not have easy access to low-sulfur fuel oil for
switching from coal, and - also unlike New York and New Jersey - few
operating boilers have installed dual fuel capability. Even if the
entire clean energy deficit could be eliminated by switching from coal
to low-sulfur oil, there could be severe disruptions in other sectors
of the region's economy.
With the problem more specifically identified, the objective
becomes one of finding those strategies which resuJt in lesser disruption
4~
Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Tennessee,
plus Georgia and Alabama.
50
-------
Ul
.11
FIGURE 11
1975 COAL DEFICITS AFl'ER TRANSFERS AND BLENDING
(106 TONS)
-------
than the previously considered strategies and simultaneously allow
the maximum feasible use of available high-sulfur coal, while at the
same time meet primary ambient air quality standards with minimum ac-
ceptable delays. We have called such strategies potential low-impact
strategies and have analyzed three such strategies as indicative of
the general direction to be pursued in performing more detailed AOCR-
by-AQCR analyses.
Potential Low-Impact Strategy A
In this 1975 strategy, we concentrate our attention on the nine
states mentioned above. First, we consider applying SIP SOX regula-
tions to all Priority I and IA AQCRs in the nation and to all Priority
II and III AQCRs not in the nine states. Within these nine states, SIP
regulations are applied to all oil-burning sources but to no coal-burning
sources in Priority II and III AQCRs until 1978. As in strategy six,
we recognize that this strategy moves in the direction of nationwide
achievement of ambient air quality standards by 1975. In a more re-
fined AQCR-by-AQCR analysis, Priority II AQCRs above the primary stan-
dard would also be subject to SIP regulations in 1975. This phased and
tailored application of SIP requirements reduces the deficit of coal
within SIP by 80 million tons in 1975. In addition, potential low-
impact strategy A makes use of options yielding 45 million tons of coal
within SIP and 15,000 Mw of flue gas desulfurization systems. The
resources from these options are applied to the nine states under con-
sideration. The results of this strategy are summarized in Table IX,
52
-------
TABLE IX
SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE LOW-IMPACT STRATEGIES
PARAMETERS
YE^R
GAS
CLEAN COAL
FLUE GAS CONTROL
TARGET
(106TONS)
COAL DEFICIENCY (BASELINE)
ADDITIONAL LOW S. COAL
FLUE GAS CONTROL
REVISE SIPs
PRIORITY III
PRIORITY II
PRIORITY I, la
REMAINING DEFICIENCY
SWITCH TO GAS
SWITCH TO OIL
REMAINING COAL DEFICIENCY
GAS DEFICIENCY (BASELINE)(TCF)
LOW S OIL DEFICIENCY (BASELINE)
(10b BBLS)
7
75
0.
45X106 TONS
15,000 Mw
I, la AQCR'S IN 9
STATES ALL AQCR'S IN
OTHER STATES
9 STATES
277
45
38
RO
114
-
114
0
0.1
0
OTHER
47
0
0
-
-
-
47
-
47
0
0.3
391
TOTAL
324
45
33
161
-
161
(644X106
BBLS YR)
o
0.4
391
8
75
1.5 TCF
45X106 TONS
15,000
!w
I, la AQCR'S IN 10
STATES ALL AQCR'S IN
OTHER STATES
ESTATES'
288
45
33
40
60
-
105
45
59
0
0.1 .1
103
OTIIEU
36
0
0
-
-
-
36
-
35
0
0.3
288
TOT/V-
224
45
*i <-v
Oo
40
60
0
141
46
(1.1TCF)
95
(380X106
BBLS YR)
0
0.4
391
9
75
1.15 TCF
45X1C6 TONS
15,000 Hw
I, la AQCR'S AFFECTING
NF.TP.O. AREAS IN 10
STATES. ALL PQCR'S
IN OT!-:£R STATES
lOS'i/YTESl OTHER
288
45
33
40
60
60.
45
31
14
0
0.1
103
TOTAL
36
0
0
-
-
-
36
0
36
0
0.3
288
324
45
38
40
60
60
81
31
(.75TCF)
50
(2COX105
BBLS YR)
0
0.4
391
NINE STATES ARE MICHIGAN, OHIO, ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN, INDIANA, KENTUCKY, TENNESSEE, ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
TEN STATES - NEW YORK ADDED
-------
TABLE IX (CONTINUED)
SUMMARY OF POSSIBLE LOW-IMPACT STRATEGIES
RECAP
PARAMETERS
GAS (ABOVE BASELINE - TCF/YR)
OIL IMPORTS (ABOVE PROJECTED
NORMAL 6.5'V GROUTH RATE)
(106 BBL/YR)
OIL DESULFURIZED (EXCLUDING
OIL IMPORTS ABOVE)
(106 BBLS/YR
AVAILABLE MAXIMUM
GAS (TCF/YR)
OIL IMPORTS (106 BBL/YR)
OIL DESULFUKIZED (106 BBL/YR)
COAL UTILIZATION (106 TONS/YR)
iitETINb SI:Js (BASELINE)
ADDITIONAL LOW S COAL
USABLE HIGH S COAL
MECH DESUL.
FLUE GAS CONTROL
REVISE SIPs
TOTAL COAL USED
7
0
421
678
0
870X106 BBLS
678X106 BBLS
263
30
298
15
33
r»r»
CU
133
431
8
1.5
92
678
1.5 TCF
870X1Q6 BBLS
673X106 BBLS
263
30
298
15
38
100
153
45T
9
1 .15
(87)
591
1.15 TCF
870X106 BBLS
673X106 BBLS
263
on
ju
298
15
38
1GO
213
5TT
-------
and a detailed analysis of this strategy is contained in Table A-7 of
Appendix A. An additional 421 million barrels of oil above the base-
line must be imported, of which 373 million barrels must be imported
into these nine states.
Potential Low-Impact Strategy B
In strategy B, we use the same approach as in A except that New
York is added as a target state to be treated as the nine states and,
in addition, we consider the use of gas options to the extent that
options yield an additional 1.5 TCF in 1975.
Table IX depicts the results of this strategy (for detailed analy-
sis, see Table A-8, Appendix A). As a result of this strategy, an
additional 92 million barrels of oil must be imported above the
baseline.
!
Potential Low-Impact Strategy C
Strategy C duplicates strategy B except that 1.15 TCF of gas is
considered to be made available by gas options in 1975. In addition,
in the ten states the application of SIP regulations in Priority I and
IA areas is confined to sources affecting ambient air quality in major
metropolitan areas. "This latter factor contributes approximately
another 60-million-ton reduction in the coal deficit at SIP. This
low-impact strategy requires no oil imports over baseline and, in fact,
diminishes the needed amount of oil imported within baseline by 87
million barrels.
55
-------
It should be noted that strategies two and four resulted in a
projected surplus of high-sulfur coal of up to 318 million tons in 1975.
Low-impact strategies A, B, and C reduce this surplus to 200, 180, and
120 million tons, respectively. This surplus is a measure of the po-
tential dislocation to the coal industry.
IMPLICATIONS OF POTENTIAL LOW-IMPACT STRATEGIES
The tailored low-impact strategies considered recognize several
key factors. First, the majority of the coal deficit is confined to
relatively few states; therefore, focusing actions upon these states
is likely to yield significant results. Second, Priority III AQCRs
and many Priority II AQCRs are already achieving primary ambient air
quality standards. Allocating scarce resources to these AQCRs, in
lieu of allocations to AQCRs already above primary health-related
standards, would tend to increase the difficulty and impact of nation-
wide achievement of primary standards in 1975.
This tailored approach also decreases the impact on the coal in-
dustry of achieving air quality standards. Of course, projected
"surplus" high-sulfur coal is coal that would not be mined. Adjust-
ments to this decrease in high-sulfur coal demand are expected to take
place during the period until 1975 by shrinkage in the growth rate of
the required labor force. Preliminary analysis indicates that some
degree of unemployment, of the order of 5,000 to 10,000 miners currently
employed in the East, will result; whereas an increase in current em-
ployment levels, of the order of 4,000 to 8,000 miners, will be required
56
-------
in the West. In the East, normal attrition and retirement over
the period to 1975 will reduce the amount of actual unemployment.
These magnitudes are to be compared with 1970 employment levels of
140,000 miners, of whom 113,000 were employed in the East. This
problem is also diminished by a current shortage of miners in the
Eastern and Central U.S. coal fields.
Of the 1975 strategies considered, the potential low-impact
strategies require considerably less oil importation above baseline
than the technologically feasible strategies to achieve SIP require-
ments (strategies two and four). The greatest amount of oil imports
required in the low-impact approaches considered was 421 million
barrels. In the latter two low-impact strategies, availability of
additional gas decreased oil imports to 92 million barrels in strategy
B and actually cut into baseline imports by 87 million barrels in
strategy C.
MODIFICATIONS TO LOW-IMPACT STRATEGIES
The approach of these low-impact strategies is being continued at
an AQCR-by-AQCR level. Further extension to AQCRs in other than the
ten states concentrated on is also in progress. Throughout, the
approach of achieving at least primary ambient air quality standards
by 1975 is stressed in accordance with the Clean Air Amendments of
1970.
57
-------
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
It is difficult to assess precisely the net environmental impact
of exercising these low-impact strategies. Normal growth without re-
gard to SIPs would have required increases in imports and, therefore,
increased possibilities of oil spills. Construction of refineries,
albeit to a lesser degree, would likewise have been required in any
case. Converting to oil, on the positive side, would mean a lessening
of the adverse environmental impact associated with both strip and deep
coal mining. The effect of post-1975 application of SIPs in Priority
II and III AQCRs in the states with the main problem could mean some
degradation of ambient air quality in those AQCRs if new industry is
allowed to enter or consumers burn lower quality fuels.
COSTS
Preliminary estimates of costs have been computed in order to pro-
vide an indication of the economic impact of each strategy. These
preliminary costs are of two types.
First, estimated incremental investment costs are costs associated
with creating capital facilities to supply clean fuels above the base-
line fuel availability. Included in these capital costs are: flue gas
desulfurization systems computed at $40 per kilowatt of installed capa-
city; desulfurization facilities of $125 million per plant (each plant
sized at 36 million barrels per year); and capital costs of coal op-
tions at $4 per ton of production capacity. No capital costs are in-
cluded which may be associated with additional importation of low-sulfur
58
-------
oil above the baseline; nor are capital costs included which are asso-
ciated with increases in gas production above the baseline.
Incremental clean fuel costs passed forward to consumers are also
computed (i.e., , premium costs of fuels required above the baseline ex-
clusive of the base price of such fuels). Not included are costs of
conversion from one fuel to another, differentials in unit costs of
fuels switched, or differences in operation arid maintenance costs
resulting from fuel switching. No costs passed forward are included
for increased gas availabilities. These unit costs passed forward are
computed based on: $3 per ton of coal used above baseline, $3 per ton
of coal used in plants equipped with flue gas desulfurization systems,
and $0.80 per barrel of desulfurized oil and imported oil.
These costs are presented in Table 10 for each strategy.
Considerable refinement of this costing approach is underway and
will be reported on in later papers.
59
-------
TABLE X
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF INCREMENTAL CLEAN FUEL COSTS*
(IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
STRATEGY
POTENTIAL LOW-
IMPACT STRATEGY
A B (
Investment
o Costs. Passed Forward per Year
4.7
1.2
3.2
1.4
6.8
1.3
2.4
1.4
2.7
1.1
2.2
0.7
3.1
1.1
3.1
0.86
2.8
0.73
*See text for specific costs excluded and definition of terms.
-------
APPENDIX A
DETAILED ANALYSES OF STRATEGIES
61
-------
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY
LEFT BLANK
62
-------
TABLE A-I
STRATEGY ONE (1977)
Increased Availability after Exorcising Options: GJS - 2 x 1012 ft3. Oil within SIPs 1,670 ciIHlon barrels,
Coal within SIPs - 45 million tons, SO Control - 45 x 10 Mw (113 million totis Coal Equivalent)
BEFORE EXERCISING OPTIONS
Requirements at SIP
Availability at SIP
Deficit at SIP
Availability above SIP
INCREMENTAL AVAILABILITY WITHIN
SIPs DUI TO OPTIONS
DEFICIT (SURPLUS) AFTER OPTIONS
ACTION
Kew Construction SO (Coal
Only) X
Availability
Regaining Deficit
High-Sulfur Surplus
SO Retrofits
x
Remaining Deficit
Allocate Gas to Coal Deficit
Availability
Remaining Deficit
(Surplus)
Allocate Desulfurized High-
Sulfur Surplus
Availability
Remaining Deficit
(Surplus)
Allocate Low-Sulfur Import
Oil
Availabllity-
Reaainlng Deficit
INCREMENTAL IMPORTS NEEDED*
OIL DESULFURIZED
COAL
(millions of tons)
615
290
325
385
45
280
113
167
272
167
25
142
uo
3.7
32
0
on,
(aillJlons of barrels)
1,505
1,144
361
£01
801 d
870 LSI
(441) d
441 d
0
128 LSI
0
128 LS-;
801 d
CAS (TCF)
25.7
24.2
1.4
.2.0
(0.6)
0.6
0
0
0
S0x CONTROLS
45,000 Mw - 113 x 10b
tons
45 x 103 Mw
0
0
0
0
0
*Total available - 870 oillion barrels.
(d * High-Sulfur Oil within Baseline Doauliurizcd, LSI " Lcw-3ulfur Oil Imports above Baseline)
63
-------
TABLE A-2
STRATEGY TWO (1975)
Increased Availability alter Exercising Options: Gas 0, Oil within SIPs 1,548 million barrels (678 d + 870 LSI)
SO Control 15,000 Mv (33 million tons Coal Equivalent), Coal within SIPs 45 million tons
BEFORE EXERCISING OPTIONS
Requirements at SIP
Availability at SIP
Deficit at SIP
Availability above SIP
INCREMENTAL AVAILABILITY WITHIN
SIPs DUE TO OPTIONS
DEFICIT (SURPLUS) AFTER OPTIONS
ACTION
Hew Construction SO (Coal
Only) x
Availability
Remaining Deficit
High-Sulfur Surplus
SO Retrofits
Remaining Deficit
Allocate Desulfurized High-
Sulfur Oil to Coal
Availability
Remaining DeficlC
Allocate LSI to Coal and Gaa
Availability
Remaining Deficit
INCREMENTAL IMPORTS NEEDED*
. OIL DESULFL'RIZED
COAL
(millions of tons)
5S>2
2i58
324
318
45
279
38
241
230
noac available
241
72
169
169
0
OIL
(millions of barrels)
1,439
1,048
391
678
678 d
876 LSI
(287) d
287 d
0
740 LSI
0
740 LSI
6?8 d
GAS (TCF)
23.2
24.8
0.4
0
0.4
.0.4
0
S0x CONTROLS
15,000 Mw -
38 x 106 tons
.-15,000 Mw
0
0
0
0
Total available - 870 million barrels.
(d High-Sulfur Oil within Baseline Desulfurlzed, LSI Low-Sulfur Oil laports above Basallne)
64
-------
TABLE A-3
STRATEGY THREE (1975)
Complete SO Control (Very Intensive). Increased Availability after Exercising
Options: Gas 0, Oil within SIPs 1,548 million barrels
(as in Strategy Two), Unlimited SO Control
BEFORE EXERCISING OPTIONS
Requirements at SIP
Availability at SIP
Deficit at SIP
Availability above SIP
INCREMENTAL AVAILABILITY WITHIN
SIPs DUE TO OPTIONS
DEFICIT (SURPLUS) AFTER OPTIONS
ACTION
New Construction and Retrofit
SO Control
Availability
Remaining Deficit
High-Sulfur Surplus
.Allocate Des'ulfurized High-
Sulfur Oil Surplus to Coal
Availability
Remaining Deficit
INCREMENTAL IMPORTS*
OIL DESULFURIZED**
COAL
(trillions of tons)
592
268
324
318
0
324
318
6
0
6
0
OIL
(mi lllons .of barrels)
1,439
1,048
391
673
678 d
870 LSI
(287) d
,
88 d
0
0 LSI
479 d
CAS (TCF)
25.2
24.8
0.4
0
0.4
0.4
0
SO CONTROLS
X(Mw)
126,000 -
318 x 106 tons
126,000
0
0
. *Total available -. 870 million barrels.
**Total available -r 678 million barrels.
(d - High-Sulfur Oil within Baseline Desulfurized, LSI Low-Sulfur Oil Imports above Baseline)
65
-------
TABLE A- <,
STRATEGY FOUR (1975)
Increased Availability after ExerclstnR Options: Gas 0, Coal - 0,
Oil - 1,548 million barrels (as In Strategy Two), SO^ Control - 0
BEFORE EXERCISING OPTIONS
Requirements at SIP
Availability at SIP
Deficit at SIP
Availability above SIP
INCREMENTAL AVAILABILITY WITHIN
SIPS DUE TO C7TIOXS
DEFICIT (SURPLUS) AFTER OPTIONS
ACTION
Allocate Desulfurizecl High
Oil Surplus
Availability
Remaining Deficit
.High-Sulfur Surplus
Allocate LSI to Coal Burners
Availability
Remaining Deficit
Import Additional Low-Sulfur
Oil to Cover Coal Deficit
(34 million tons) and Gas
Deficit (64 Billion barrels) .
Availability
Retaining Deficit
OIL DESULRJE.TZED
INCREMENTAL IMPORTS NEEDED*
COAL
(millions of tons)
592
268
324
318
0
324
72
252
318
218
34
34
0
OIL
(millions CM' bnrruls)
1,439
1,048
391
678
678 d
870 LSI
(287) d
287 d
0
870 LSI
0
200 LSI
200
678 d
1,070 '-SI
GAS (TCF)
25.2
24.8
0.4
0
0.4
0.4
0
S0x CONTROLS
None
Available
*Total available - 870 million barrels.
(d High-Sulfur Oil within Baseline Desulfurized, LSI - Low-Sulfur Oil Imports above Baseline)
66
-------
TABLE A-5
STRATEGY V (1975)
APPLY SIPs ONLY TO PRIORITY I, IA, AND II SOURCES
Increased Availability attcr Exorcising Options: CAS 0, Oil within SIPs 1,548 million barrels (as
in Strategy Two), Coal within SIPs 45 million tons, SO Control 15 Hw
BEFORE EXERCISING OPTIONS
Requirement at SIP
Requirement above SIF
Availability at SIP
Availability above SIP
Deficit at SIP
Surplus above SIP
INCREMENTAL AVAILABILITY WITHIN
SIPS DUE TO OPTIONS
DEFICIT (SURPLUS) AFTER OPTIONS
ACTION
Nsw Construction SO Control
Availability
Remaining Deficit
High-Sulfur Surplus
Allocate Des.ulfurlzed High-
Sulfur Oil to Coal Burners
Availability
Remaining DeficlC
Allocate LSI to Coal Burners
and Gas Burners
Availability
Remaining Deficit
OIL DESULFURIZED
INCREMENTAL IMPORTS NEEDED *
COAL
(millions of tons)
545
W
268
318
277
271
45
232
38
194
233
72
122
122
0
OIL
'(- 11 Ions of barrels)
1,280
159
1,048
678
232
519'
519 d
870 LSI
(287) d
287 d
0
552 LSI
0
519 d
532 LSI
CAS (TCF)
25.2
24.8
0.4
0
0.4
0.4
0
SO CONTROLS
X(Mw)
15,000 -
38 x 105 tons
15,000
0
0
0
Total available - 870 million barrels.
(d High-Sulfur Oil within Bas2line Desulfurized, LSI - Low-Sulfur Oil Imports above Baseline)
67
-------
TABLE A-6
STRATIFY SIX (1975)
APPLY SIFa ONLY TO PRIORITY I AND IA SOURCES
Increased Availability after Exercising Options: Cjs 0, Oil within SIFs 1,548 million barrels (as
in Strategy Two), Coal within SIPs 45 cillion tons, SO Control 15,000 llw
BEFORE EXERCISING OPTIONS
Requirement at SIP
Requirement above SIP
Availability at SIP
Availability above SIP
Deficit, at SIP
Deficit above SIP
INCREMENTAL AVAILABILITY WITHIN
SIPs DUE TO OPTIONS
DEFICIT (SURPLUS) 'AFTER OPTIONS
ACTION
New Construction SO Control
Availability
Remaining Deficit
High-Sulfur Surplus
Allocate Desulfurized High-
Sulfur Oil to Coal Burners
Availability
Remaining Deficit
Allocate Imported Low-Sulfur
Oil to Coal and Gas Burners
Availability
Remaining Deficit
INCREMENTAL IMPORTS NEEDED *
OIL DESULFURIZED
COAL
(nillijns of tons)
445
.X47
268
318
177
171
45
132
38
94
133
72
22
22
0
OIL
(rulltons of barrels)
1,180
259
1,048
678
132
419
419 d
870 LSI
(287) d
287 d
0
152 LSI
0
152 LSI
419 d
CAS (TCF)
25.2
24.8
0.4
0
0.4
0.4
0
SO CONTROL
15,000
15,000
0
0
0
*Total available - 870 million barrels.
(d High-Sulfur Oil within Baseline Dcsulfurized, LSI - Low-Sulfur Oil Imports above Baseline)
63
-------
TADLE A - 7
STRATEGY VII - POSSIBLE LOW IMPACT STRATEGY A - 1975
Decontrol Coal Burning Power Plants in Priority II and III AQCR's In 9 High Coal Deficit States (Michigan. Indiana.
Kentucky, Ohio, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Alabjna. Georgia, Illinois)
BEFORE REQUIRED AT SIP
EXERCISING AVAIL. AT SIP
OPTIONS OiFICIT AT SIP
HIGH S(SURPLUS)
REVISION OF SIP'S IN 9
STATES, PRIORITY !I & III
DEFERRED
DEFICIT REDUCT.
DEFICIT AT SIP
HIGH S(SURPLUS)
INCREMENTAL AVAILABILITY
WITHIN SIP'S DUE TO OPTIONS
DEFICIT (SURPLUS) AFTER
OPTIONS
WITHIN SIP
ABOVE SIP
ACTIONS:
1. ALLOCATE SOx CONTROLS
AVAILABILITY
REflAIN D AT SIP
REKAIN (SURDLUS)
ABOVE SIP
2. ALLOCATE DESULFURIZED
HIGH SULFUR OIL WITHIN
STATES TO COAL BURNERS
WITHIN STATES
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN DEF. (SURPLUS)
AT SIP
3. REALLOCATE SURPLUS OF
DESULFURIZED HIGH SULFUR
OIL FROM OTHER STATES TO
9 STATES
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN DEF. AFTER SIP
4. ALLOCATE LOW SULFUR IMPORT
OIL TO COAL BURNERS AND
GAS BURNERS
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN DEFICIT AT SIP
SUMMARY
OIL DESULFURIZEO*
LOU SULFUR IMPORTS ABOVE
6.5 % BASELINE**
COAL (106 *OfJS)
NATIONAL [9 STAUS.JJTHER
592
268
324
(318)
60
244
(233)
45
199
(238)
38
161
(200)
62.5
98.5
9.2C
89.25
89.25
0
297
20
277
(262)
80
197
(182)
45
152
(172)
38
114
(144)
15.5-
98.5
9.25
89.25
89.25
0
295
243
47
(56)
0
47
(56)
0
47
(so
0
47
(56)
47
0
0
0
0
0
1
OIL (1Q6 DBL)
NATIONAL
1439
1C43
391
(678)
0
391
(678)
678d
3 STATED OT;;ER
203
203
0
(62)
0
0
(62)
1
62d
870LSI|
(287 )d
250d
(37)
37d
0
421 LSI
0
678d
421LSI
(62)d
62d
0
0
0
373LSI
0
62d
373LSI
1236
S45
391
(616)
0
391
(616)
61 6d
(225)
188d
(37)d
37 d
0
48LSI
0
616d
48LSI
GAS (10li;FT3)
NATIONAL i 9 STAH
25.2
24.8
0.4
0
0
0.4
0
0
0.4
0.4
0
6.1
6.0
0.1
0
0
0.1
0
0
0.1
0.1
0
5 OTKR
19,1
18.8
0.3
0
0
0.3
0
0
o.a
0.3
3
SOx (106 WAITS)
NATIONAL
15 X 103
0
0
0
0
/9 STATfS (OThL-;
15 X 103
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
*678 MBBLS AVAILABLE FOR DESULFURIZATION.
"TOTAL AVAILABLE - 870 MILLION BARRELS
(d * High-Sulfur Oil within Baseline Desulfurized, LSI » Low-Sulfur Oil Imports above Baseline)
69
-------
STRATEGY VII!
TABLE A-8
POSSIBLE LOW-IMPACT STRATEGY B
1975
Control Coal-Surn1ng Power Plants In Priority I and IA AQCRs Only In 10 High-Coal-Deficit States (9 + N.Y.),
AD AQCRs In Other States
BEFORE REQUIRED AT SIP
EXERCISING AVAIL. AT SIP
OPTIONS DEFICIT AT SIP
HIGH S(SURPI.US)
REVISION OF SIP'S I.'J TCN
STATES PRIORITY I CONTROLLED
DEFICIT RELUCT.
DEFICIT AT SIP
HIGH S(SURPLUS)
INCREMENTAL AVAILABILITY
WITHIN SIP DUE TO OPTIONS
DEFICIT (SURPLUS) AFTER
OPTIONS
WITHIN SIP
ABOVE SIP
ACTION
TTAlLOCATE SOX CONTROLS
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN DEFICIT AT SIP
REMAIN (SURPLUS)ABOVE
SIP
2. SWITCH TO GAS
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN DEFICIT AT SIP
3. SWITCH TO DESULFuRIZEO
HIGH SULFUR OIL AVAIL.
WITHIN STATES
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN DEFICIT (SURPLUS)
AT SIP
4. REALLOCATE SURPLUS OF
DESULFURIZEQ OIL FROM
"OTHER STATES" TO TEN
STATES
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN DEFICIT (SURPLUS
AT SIP
5. ALLOCATE LO'.-I SULFUR IMPORT
OIL TO TFN STATES COAL
BURNERS
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN DEFiCIT AT SIP
SUMMARY: OIL DESULFURIZED
LOW SULFUR IMPORTS'
ABOVE 6.5% BASELINE
CC
NATIONAL
592
2o8
324
(313)
100
2uN
(218)
45
179
218
33
141 '
(180)
46
95
65
30
7
23
23
0
M (10G TO
10 STATES
314
26
283
(273)
ICO
1 33
(173)
45
143
173
38
105
(135)
46
59
29
30
7
23
23
0
IS)
OU,:R
2/S
242
36
(45)
0
36
(45)
0
36
45
0
36
(45)
0
36
36
0
0
0
0
0
c
NATIONAL
1430
1043
391
(673)
0
:i9i
d>79)
573d
870LSI
(237'd
259d
(28)
28d
0
92LSI
0
676d
92LSI
IL (10b EL:
10 sr-uLS
470
367
103
(218)
0
103
(218)
218d
(H5)d
TT5d
0
0
0
92LSI
0
218d
92LSi
-S)
OTHER
969
681
283
(460)
0
288
(460)
460d
(172)d
Wd
(28)
28d
0
0
450d
0
G
RATIONAL
25.2
24.8
0.4
0
0
1.5
(1.1)
1 .1
0
0
0
0
AS (10;2 FT
10 STATES
6.9
6. a
n.1
0
0
1.2
(1.1)
1.1
0
0
0
0
J)
OTHfR
18.3
13.0
0.3
0
0
0.3
0
0
0
0
0
0
so
1 NATIONAL
15 X 103
15 X 103
0
0
0
0
0
X ( 106 WAT
10 STATES
15 X 103
15 X TO3
0
0
0
0
0
rs)
1 OTHL--
0
G
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL AVAILABLE - 870 MILLION BARRELS.
(d « High-Sulfur Oil within Baseline Desul fuzzed, LSI » Low-Sulfur Oil Imports above Bisellne)
-------
STRATEGY IX
TABLE A-9
POSSIBLE LOW-IMPACT STRATEGY C
1975
Controls on Coal-Burning Power Plants Affecting Ambient Air Quality in Major Metro Areas in Priority I and IA
AQCRs 1n 10 High-Coal-Deficit States (9 + N.Y.), All AQCRs in Other States
BEFORE REQUIRED AT SIP
EXERCISING AVAIL. AT SIP
OPTIONS DEFICIT AT SIP
HIGH S(SURFLUS)
REVISION OF SIP'S !N TEN
STATES J3) CONTROLS IN
PIRORITY I. II, III AQCR's
DEFICIT RLDUCT.
DEFICIT SIP
HIGH S(SURPLUS)
INCREMENTAL AVAILABILITY
WITHIN SIP'S DUE TO OPTIONS
DEFICIT (SURPLUS) AFTER
OPTIONS
WITHIN SIP
ABOVE SIP
ACTION
.TTALTOCATE SOx CONTROLS
AVAILABILITY'
REMAIN DEF. AT SIP
.REMAIN (SURPLUS)
ABOVE SIP
2. SWITCH TO GAS
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN OEF. AT SIP
3, SWITCH TO DESULFURIZED
HIGH Sl'LFl'R.OIL WITHIN
STATES
AVAILABILITY
REMAIN DEFICIT (SURPLUS)
AT SIP
SUMMARY: OIL DESULFURIZED*
LOW SULFUR IMPORTS**
ABOVE 6.52 BASEL FiE
COAL (106 TONS)
fiATIO.'IALllO STATCS |
532
268
324
(:iia)
160
164
(153)
45
119
(158)
33
81
(120)
31
50
50
0
314
26
2S3
(2?3)
160
128
(113)
45
33
(113)
38
45
(75)
31
K
14
0
OFiTR
273
242
36
(45)
0
(45)
0
36
(45)
0
36
(«)
0
36
36
0
OIL (1C6 BCL) 1 GAS (10'2 FT3)
^TICflAL
1439
1C48
391
(673)
0
391
(67S)
673d
873LS.!
(287 )d
200d '
(87)
591 d
0.
, 10 S'AfE'J JTIiES
470
3G7
103
(213)
0
103
- (218)
218d
(115)d
56d/
(59)
159d>
0
969
631
223
(.150)
0
28C
('£0)
460d
(172 )d
144d,
(23)
432d
0
iNATItCiLj 10 STATES 1 OTHfR
25.2
24.8
0.4
0
0
0.4
0
1.15
C-75)
.75
0
0
6.9
6.8
0.1
0
0
0.1
0
0.85
(.75)
-
.75
0
0
18.3
18.0
0.3
0
0
0.3
0
0.3
0.
0
0
0 ,
SOx HO6 WATTS)
f.'ATIOKAL
15 X 10.3
15 X 103
0
0
0
10 S'-VTES
15 X 103
15 X 103
0
0
0
! ,- - " -
+ " ~ -t
1
1
0
c 1
C
0 !
0
': 678 = TOTAL AVAILABLE FOR DESULFURIZATION.
!|jB70 .=.TOTAL IMPORTS AVAILABLE. .:_. _
(d » High-Sulfur Oil within Easeline Desulfurized, LSI - Low-Sulfur Oil Imports above Baseline)
71
EPA-RTF
------- |