RESEARCH TRIANGLE INSTITUTE
/RTI
Baseline Technology Assessment
for the Internal Combustion Engine
Final Report
Prepared for
Robert V. Hendriks
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Risk Management Research Laboratory
Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division
Atmospheric Protection Branch
MD-63
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
EPA Contract Number 68-D-99-024
RTI Project Number 7647.002.133.300
March 2001
3040 Cornwallis Road • Post Office Box 12194 • Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709-2194 USA
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EPA Contract Number RTI Project Number
68-D-99-024 7647.002.133.300
Baseline Technology Assessment
for the Internal Combustion Engine
Final Report
March 2001
Prepared for
Robert V. Hendriks
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Risk Management Research Laboratory
Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division
Atmospheric Protection Branch
MD-63
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Prepared by
Melissa Malkin Weber
Keith A. Weitz
Camille H. Archibald
William J. White
Jui-Chen Yang
Joan S. McLean
David W. Coy
Research Triangle Institute
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
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CONTENTS
Section Page
1 Introduction 1-1
1.1 Overall Baseline Assessment Procedure 1-1
1.2 Limitations 1-4
1.2.1 Baseline vs. New Technology Assessment 1-4
1.2.2 Data Availability 1-4
1.2.3 Scope of Assessment 1-5
1.3 Results .' 1-5
1.3.1 Results Regarding the Baseline Technology 1-5
1.3.2 Results Regarding the Process of Conducting the Baseline
Assessment 1-5
1.4 Reference 1-6
2 Specifying the Technology for Assessment of Gasoline-Powered
Internal Combustion Engine 2-1
2.1 Operating Definition of Technology for this Methodology 2-4
2.2 Background on Internal Combustion Engine 2-4
2.2.1 Where is This Technology in Its Adoption? 2-5
2.2.2 Where Does This Technology Reach
into the Existing Economy? 2-5
2.2.3 Alternative Technologies 2-6
2.3 Technology Considerations 2-6
2.3.1 Statement of Desired Outcome 2-6
2.3.2 Definition or Identification of the Technology System 2-6
2.3.2.1 Boundary of the Technology 2-7
2.3.2.2 Associated Technical Requirements 2-9
2.3.2.3 Scale Limitations 2-9
2.3.2.4 Replaces or Modifies What? 2-10
in
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2.3.3 Performance 2-10
2.3.3.1 Operational Efficiency 2-10
2.3.3.2 Temporal and Spacial Limitations 2-10
2.3.3.3 Performance Life 2-10
2.3.3.4 Associated Safety Issues 2-10
2.3.4 Cost 2-11
2.3.5 Development Status 2-12
2.3.5.1 Technology Implementability 2-12
2.3.5.2 Hindrances to Full Use 2-12
2.3.6 Introduction Considerations 2-12
2.3.6.1 Infrastructure Needed to Support the
Technology 2-12
2.3.6.2 Life of Existing Infrastructure 2-12
2.3.6.3 Investment Needs 2-13
2.3.7 Resource Needs 2-13
2.3.7.1 Materials 2-13
2.3.7.2 Production Processes 2-14
2.3.7.3 Disposal 2-14
2.3.8 Links to Other Technologies/Industries 2-15
2.3.8.1 Impact on Other GHG Sources 2-15
2.3.8.2 Co-control Benefits 2-15
2.3.8.3 Ancillary Benefits 2-15
2.3.9 Technology Alternatives 2-15
2.3.9.1 Competing Technologies 2-16
2.3.9.2 Alternative Resource Uses 2-16
2.3.10 Technological Future 2-16
2.4 Next Methodology Steps 2-17
2.5 References 2-18
Environmental Impacts 3-1
3.1 Methodology 3-1
3.1.1 Identify Potential Impacts Using Matrix or Questions 3-1
3.1.2 Identify and Prioritize Corresponding Data Needs 3-2
3.1.3 Gather Information or Identify Gaps '. 3-4
3.1.4 Summarize and Analyze Information (be aware of assumptions) 3-5
3.2 Results 3-5
3.3 References 3-19
3.4 Additional Sources of Information 3-21
IV
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3.4.1 Water 3-21
3.4.2 Air 3-21
3.4.3 Life Cycle Inventory of Steel 3-21
3.4.4 Soil 3-22
3.4.5 Other 3-22
4 Economic Considerations in the Use of Internal Combustion Engine
Powered Automobiles 4-1
4.1 Methodology 4-1
4.1.1 Detailed Method for Defining Data Needs 4-2
4.1.2 Data Related to Models of Technology Adoption 4-2
4.1.3 Data Related to the Technology and the Economic
System 4-11
4.2 Economic Analysis of the Internal Combustion Engine 4-12
4.2.1 Discussion of Demand Issues 4-12
4.2.2 Discussion of Supply Side Issues 4-14
4.2.3 Considerations Related to Gasoline Production and Use .... 4-17
4.3 References 4-19
5 Political, Institutional, and Social Considerations in the Adoption and
Penetration of the Internal Combustion Engine 5-1
5.1 Methodology 5-1
5.2 Political Considerations 5-1
5.2.1 Is Manufacture and Export of Internal Combustion Engines
Part of the Country's Trade Policy Agenda? 5-4
5.2.2 Is this Technology of the Macro or Micro Type? 5-4
5.2.3 Who Are the Stakeholders in the Internal Combustion
Engine Technology? 5-4
5.2.3.1 Producer Stakeholders 5-5
5.2.3.2 Consumer Stakeholders 5-5
5.2.3.3 Environment 5-6
5.2.4 How Are Technologies Linked to Changes in Competitive
Advantage for Various Political Groups? 5-6
5.3 Institutional Considerations Relevant to Internal Combustion Engines 5-6
5.3.1 What Are the Formal Institutions Which Are Invested in
the Baseline Technology Such That They Might Create
Barriers to Adoption/Diffusion of New Technologies? 5-6
5.3.2 What Institutional Factors Can Stall a Technology Project? ... 5-7
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5.3.3 Are There Ways That Within-Institutional Barriers, Such
as the Lack of a Skill Base, Can Be Addressed? 5-8
5.3.4 What Are the Direct and Indirect Influences of Institutions
in Shaping a Technology? 5-8
5.3.5 Who Is (Are) the Implementing Body (Bodies) for the'
Technology? What Does the Decisionmaking Structure
Surrounding the Adoption of the Technology Look Like? 5-8
5.3.6 Does the Implementing Body Have Political Backing for this
Technology? Does It Demonstrate Leadership and
Enforcement Determination? Does It Have Accountability
and Managerial Autonomy? 5-8
5.3.7 What Are the Current Legislatures, Codes, and Standards
Influencing this Technology? What Are the Anticipated
Trends of Current Legislation? 5-8
5.3.8 Who Is (Are) the Financial Institution(s) Involved in
Financing the Technology? 5-9
5.3.9 Are There Any International Treaties, Conventions,
and/or Agreements Influencing this Technology? 5-9
5.3.10 What Is the Role of the NGOs Related to this Technology?
Do They Differ in their Stance on this Technology Effort? ... 5-9
5.4 Social Considerations in the Adoption and Penetration of the
Internal Combustion Engine 5-10
5.4.1 What Is the Relationship Between Population
Demographics and Technology? 5-10
5.4.2 What Are the Individual Psychological Factors Influencing
the Adoption Decision of a New Idea or Product? 5-10
5.4.3 Will Interaction Between Individual Psychology and
Group Psychology Help or Hinder Use of the Technology
by the Public? Are There Cultures and Norms that
Would Influence an Individual's Willingness to Adopt
the Technology? 5-10
5.4.5 Are There Environmental Justice and Equity Issues to
Be Considered? 5-11
5.4.6 Are There Second-Generation Technology Impacts? 5-12
5.5 Summary of Results 5-13
5.6 References 5-14
6 Internal Combustion Engine Baseline Assessment—Putting It All
Together 6-1
6.1 Nature of Assessment Results 6-1
vi
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6.2 Summary of Information from All Sections 6-3
6.2.1 Major Assumptions 6-3
6.2.2 Summary of Major Findings 6-4
6.2.2.1 Economic Results 6-16
6.2.2.2 Environmental Results 6-16
6.2.2.3 Social/Political/Institutional Results 6-18
6.2.3 Comparison and Interelationship of Findings 6-19
6.3 Significant Issues in Conducting a Baseline Technology
Assessment 6-21
6.4 Conclusions Regarding the Process of Conducting the
Technology Assessment 6-22
6.5 References 6-23
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LIST OF FIGURES
Number Page
1-1 Technology Assessment Methodology Conceptual Design 1-2
1-2 Steps Used in Baseline Technology Assessment 1-3
2-1 Summary Illustration of Internal Combustion Engine Study Scope 2-7
6-1 Summary of Examples from Document Sections on Technological,
Environment, Economic, and Political/Institutional/Social
Considerations, How to Compare Them, and When to Reassess or
Conclude with Results 6-2
6-2 Summary Illustration of Internal Combustion Engine Study Scope 6-4
6-3 Waterborne Emissions from Industries Related to Internal Combustion
Engines I 6-17
6-4 Waterborne Emissions from Industries Related to Internal Combustion
Engines n 6-18
6-5 Atmospheric Emissions from Industries Related to Internal
Combustion Engines I 6-19
6-6 Atmospheric Emissions from Industries Related to Internal
Combustion Engines n 6-20
6-7 Solid Waste from Industries Related to Internal Combustion Engines I 6-21
vin
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LIST OF TABLES
Number Page
2-1 Identification and Prioritization of Data Needs for Specifying the
Technology 2-2
2-2 Components Excluded from Internal Combustion Engine Study
Boundaries 2-8
2-3 Geographic Boundaries 2-9
2-4 Typical Materials Composition of Average Internal Combustion
Engine 2-13
2-5 Important Considerations in Specifying a Technology and Sections in
Which They are Addressed in More Detail 2-17
3-1 Potential Environmental Concerns from the Internal Combustion
Engine 3-2
3-2 Environmental Data Needs 3-3
3-3 Results of Environmental Data Collection 3-6
4-1 Economic Data Needs 4-3
5-1 Preliminary List of Data Needs for Section 5 5-2
5-2 Suggested Presentation of Scale Issues for New Technology Compared
to Baseline 5-4
5-3 Major Results Relevant to Comparing Internal Combustion Engine to
New Technologies 5-14
6-1 Major Assumptions Applied in Defining the Baseline Technology 6-5
6-2 Economic Data Collection Results 6-6
6-3 Results of Environmental Data Collection 6-10
6-4 Results from Political/Institutional/Social Considerations
Data Collection 6-15
IX
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
This baseline technology assessment builds on the Methodology for Integrated
Technology Assessment commissioned by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
(hereafter referred to as the Technology Assessment Methodology) (RTI, 2000). Figure 1-1
shows the conceptual design of the model and how its components fit together. For the
current project, Research Triangle Institute (RTI) applied the technology assessment
methodology to the baseline case of the internal combustion engine. This document contains
five sections in addition to the introduction:
• defining the technology,
• environmental impacts,
• economic impacts,
• social/political/institutional impacts, and
• summary (provides the overall assessment based on the preceding sections).
The goal of this baseline assessment is to demonstrate the application of the technology
assessment methodology. Therefore, each section describes the process of conducting the
assessment as well as the results of the assessment.
1.1 Overall Baseline Assessment Procedure
To begin the assessment, we assembled a team of subject experts to compile the
sections on technology definition, environmental, economic, and social/institutional impacts.
We met as a team to discuss the overall project objectives, developed a preliminary scope for
the assessment, and discussed potential data sources and the number of person-hours
available for the work. We used this information to allocate our efforts between the tasks of
collecting data and applying the methodology. Subsequent steps followed the steps
recommended in the methodology. Figure 1-2 illustrates these steps.
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Existing
Conditions
New Technology
Potential Penetration
Penetration = f(cost,
retrofit, institutional
barriers/drivers,
legislative factors, etc.)
Results, Given the
Predicted Level of
Penetration
Economic Results
Environmental Results
Social Results
-> Market Results
Figure 1-1. Technology Assessment Methodology Conceptual Design
Scoped out the technology from a systems approach, creating a diagram showing
components of the technology that would be included and excluded from analysis.
These boundaries are described in Section 3 of this report. Preliminary data
collection was needed to determine the boundaries of the baseline assessment.
Here we relied primarily on the life-cycle assessment literature.
Using the technology boundaries scope definition, we worked through each
substantive section (environmental, economic, social/political/institutional) to
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Identify Assessment
Boundaries & Scope
Identify Data Needs
•Environmental Section
•Economic Section
•Social/Political/lnstitutional
Section
Prioritize Data Needs
Gather Data
Present Data in each
Section
Summarize key
section results into
Final Results Section
Figure 1-2. Steps Used in Baseline Technology Assessment
identify data needs for these areas. The data needs effort was guided by the
matrix or set of guidance questions contained in each relevant section of the
Technology Assessment Methodology.
Each subject area expert prioritized the data needs according to his or her expert
judgment regarding how significant each data area was to the internal combustion
engine technology.
Data was gathered for the scoping, economic, environmental and
social/political/institutional sections. The objective of data gathering was both to
quantify the impacts we expected to see in high-priority data areas and also to
verify our assumptions that the data areas marked as lower priority do indeed have
a lower impact on the economic, environmental, and social/political/institutional
systems.
Subject area experts assembled the substantive sections of the baseline assessment
into the relevant sections (economic, environmental and
social/political/institutional).
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• We summarized key results using the methodology described in Section 7 of the
Technology Assessment Methodology. In this step, results from each section are
summarized and examined for consistency in assumptions, and inconsistencies in
results are examined.
1.2 Limitations
7.2.7 Baseline vs. New Technology Assessment
The Technology Assessment Methodology was developed for examining important
economic, environmental, and political and social impacts that result from using new
technology. As shown in Figure 1-1, an important part of that model is to investigate
potential market penetration or adoption of new technologies. The current task is
substantially different, in that we are looking at an existing technology that has been in use
for more than 100 years, one that is the dominant means of meeting consumers'
transportation needs, and one whose use has influenced most of the basic patterns of our
society, including the location of businesses and residences and the structure of economic
activity. As the work assignment indicated, this assessment was to form a baseline against
which other assessments could be compared.
Examining a new or proposed technology requires making explicit comparisons to the
current situation, and these comparisons drive analysis. For the study of the internal
combustion engine in automobiles, however, the focus of the analysis is the current state.
Therefore, comparison is not a component of the baseline analysis.
7.2.2 Data Availability
Because we were asked to demonstrate the methodology, EPA requested that we not
overexpend resources on data collection. We therefore prioritized our data collection efforts.
For high-priority data, a moderate amount of effort was used in searching out the relevant
information. For medium and low priority data needs, we relied on data that was readily
available to project team members in the RTI corporate library or their own files or was
provided by EPA ORD. Areas for which data needs had been identified, but data were not
readily available, are indicated in this baseline assessment as data gaps.
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7.2.3 Scope of Assessment
When determining the scope of our assessment, we specifically excluded components
of the internal combustion engine that represent less than 2 percent of the weight of a typical
engine. This allowed us to simplify the analysis and focus on the items more likely to have
major impacts. Geographic scope was largely limited to the United States. Again, this
allowed a simpler analysis than if we were to attempt to assess the impacts of the technology
worldwide.
1.3 Results
1.3.1 Results Regarding the Baseline Technology
Results from the baseline assessment are presented in Section 6, where we summarize
assumptions and data found in the individual sections of the technology assessment:
environmental, economic, and social/political/economic. Comparing the findings and the key
assumptions of the economic, environment and social issues did not reveal major conflicts
that needed to be addressed. There was, in fact, significantly less overlap between sections
than initially anticipated, meaning that fewer discrepancies in assumptions needed to be
resolved.
1.3.2 Results Regarding the Process of Conducting the Baseline Assessment
As a demonstration of the technology assessment methodology, this baseline
assessment provided some insight into effective use of the methodology. Our observations
include the following:
• It is important to use a team composed of subject area experts to conduct the
assessment (environmental, economic, and social/political/institutional). This
speeds scoping of the technology, prioritization of data needs, and data collection.
• Regular planned communication between the subject area experts is important to
facilitate data sharing and ensure consistent use of scope and boundaries.
• The technology assessment is an iterative process. Users must be ready to revisit
their data prioritization decisions if the data do not confirm their initial
assumptions.
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1.4 Reference
Research Triangle Institute. 2000. Methodology for Integrated Assessments of Climate
Change Mitigation Technologies. Prepared for U.S. EPA National Risk Management
Research Laboratory. Research Triangle Park, NC: Research Triangle Institute.
1-6
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SECTION 2
SPECIFYING THE TECHNOLOGY FOR ASSESSMENT OF GASOLINE-
POWERED INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE
When conducting a technology assessment, defining the scope and boundaries of the
technology is necessary. In this section we define the component parts of the internal
combustion engine technology. We used the "Specifying the Technology" section of the
Technology Assessment Methodology (RTI, 2000) to identify important data needs for this
section. Major considerations in assessing a technology are shown in Table 2-1. The rows
show a list of major categories within which groups of related characteristics, properties, or
attributes of internal combustion engines can be grouped. The columns address components
related to each consideration. We also used the technology assessment methodology
framework to identify technological innovations that influence continued adoption/use of the
internal combustion engine.
After identifying areas where data are needed to identify the scope and boundaries of
the internal combustion engine technology, we prioritized the data needs. We prioritized
these needs according to expert judgment of how large of an impact each data area would
have on specifying the technology. Table 2-1 shows the data needs that were identified and
how they were prioritized. In the considerations column of the Technology Assessment
Methodology, a number of considerations are listed, such as drawing boundaries of the
assessment, identifying associated technical requirements, recognizing spatial/temporal
limitations, and assessing competing technologies for which we did not need to collect data
because the technology is so well known. These are marked "NA" in the priority column.
Other considerations are not marked as needing data collection because this assessment is a
baseline assessment of a technology that has been widely adopted and is not a pollution
mitigation technology. Therefore, data relating to competing technologies, co-control
benefits, hindrances to full use, and technology implementability were not relevant to the
assessment.
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Table 2-1. Identification and Prioritization of Data Needs for Specifying the Technology
Considerations
Priority"
Characteristic, Property, or Attribute
Definition or identification High
NA
NA
NA
Medium
Performance Medium
NA
NA
N> Medium
Medium
High
NA
NA
Introduction considerations Medium
Medium
NA
Cost
Development status
Boundary(ies) of the technology
Associated technical requirements (any additional technologies that would need to be
developed in order to make this technology feasible)
Scale limitations
Replaces or modifies what
Brief description of automotive internal combustion engine
Operational efficiency of technology
Temporal limitations
Spatial limitations
Performance life: (1) how long does an internal combustion engine live before it needs
to be replaced
Associated safety for each element of the internal combustion engine system (e.g.,
occupational safety, explosions, accidental releases, worker safety, use of internal
combustion engine)
Cost to produce, maintain, dispose of
Technology implementability—conceptual or developed and if so at what scale
Hindrances to full use
Infrastructure needed to support gasoline production/distribution network, 1C engine
production/distribution network
Life of existing infrastructure
Investment needs for technology
(continued)
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Table 2-1. Identification and Prioritization of Data Needs for Specifying the Technology (continued)
Considerations
Resource needs
Priority'
High
High
High
Characteristic, Property, or Attribute
Raw materials: internal combustion engines and gasoline
Production processes: internal combustion engines and gasoline
Disposal: typical disposal/recycle for used internal combustion engines.
Disposal of
Links to other
technologies/industries
Technology alternatives
Technological future
Medium
NA
NA
Medium
NA
NA
wastes from processes used to make internal combustion engines and gasoline
Impact on other greenhouse gas (GHG) sources; to what extent is oil drilling leading to
deforestation (loss of carbon sinks)?
Co-control benefits
Ancillary benefits
Competing technologies
Alternative resource uses
Innovations that could influence adoption
° High importance, medium importance, NA = not a data need.
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We gathered the data identified as important to this section of the report. The focus
of this report is to demonstrate application of the technology assessment methodology;
therefore, we did not conduct on extensive data gathering. We used data that was provided
by EPA or was easily available from RTFs internal library. In addition, for high-priority
data, we spent a reasonable amount of effort attempting to locate data. Where data were not
available, data gaps are identified in the document. These are areas where a full-blown
baseline assessment would need to invest resources in collecting additional data from the
literature or other sources.
In the following sections we present the information related to each section of the
technology assessment methodology. Together, these specify the technology that will be
addressed in the environmental, economic and social/political/institutional sections of this
internal combustion engine assessment report.
2.1 Operating Definition of Technology for this Methodology
o
This technology is the internal combustion engine. The elements of the technology
include extraction and processing of raw materials and, manufacture, use, and disposal of the
engine itself. In addition, gasoline and motor oil production, distribution, use, and disposal
are considered. This definition is explored further in Section 2.3.2.1 Boundaries of the
Technology. It is useful for future assessments to have a functional unit definition of the
technology. Here, the functional unit could be defined as the transportation provided by an
"average" passenger car, typically driven 12,500 miles per year. This mileage value is
consistent with the assumptions used in EPA's National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions
Laboratory (EPA, 2000).
2.2 Background on Internal Combustion Engine
Internal combustion engines produce mechanical power from the chemical energy
contained in the fuel. This chemical energy is released by burning or oxidizing the fuel
inside the engine. The fuel-air mixture before combustion and the burned products after
combustion are the actual working fluids. The work transfers that provide the desired power
output occur directly between these working fluids and the mechanical components of the
engine. In the engine, the piston moves back and forth in a cylinder and transmits power
through a connecting rod and crank mechanism to the drive shaft (Heywood, 1988).
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Internal combustion engines are used primarily in passenger automobiles and light
trucks and in commercial vehicles such as buses, taxicabs, and delivery vans. These vehicles
typically use engines with four to eight cylinders, while small, one- or two-cylinder engines
are used in motorcycles, lawn mowers, and pleasure boats. Large trucks, construction
equipment, farm equipment, and commercial ships almost universally use diesel engines, and
although these also involve internal combustion, they are outside of the scope of the present
work.
The mapping from internal combustion engines to automobiles is one-to-one; one
engine is both necessary and sufficient for an automobile. Although the entire automobile is
built around the internal combustion engine and their historical development is inextricably
entwined, very few parts of the automobile are strictly complementary to the engine. The
passenger compartment, electrical systems, steering and braking systems, and heating and air
conditioning units could easily exist in a vehicle with a different prime mover. Only the
gasoline tank and fuel lines, drive train, engine lubrication and cooling systems, and emission
controls apparatus are completely complementary.
2.2.7 Where is This Technology in Its Adoption?
The automotive internal combustion engine is a mature technology, with nearly 100
percent market penetration in the United States. Americans drive an average of 35 miles
(56 km) per day in private vehicles, the vast majority of which are powered by internal
combustion engines burning gasoline (Volvo, 2000). Sales of automobiles and light trucks
have increased by 3 percent a year, faster than the rate of population growth (Automotive
News, 2000).
2.2.2 Where Does This Technology Reach into the Existing Economy?
A number of complementary economic activities are linked to using the automotive
internal combustion engine. Major areas where the internal combustion engine automobile
reaches into the current economy are
• automotive production (including engine production);
• crude oil extraction, gasoline and motor oil production, distribution, and disposal;
and
• construction of infrastructure for automobiles (roads, parking lots).
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Associated with each of these is raw material production necessary for inputs and
waste handling related to outputs. These are described in more detail in Section 2.3.2.1.
2.2.3 Alternative Technologies
Alternative technologies are technologies that provide an equivalent service to the
baseline technology. In this case, the functional equivalent is the service of moving
individuals from one place to another. These might include "drop in" replacements such as
automobile engines powered by combustible fuels (biofuels, natural gas) or automobiles
powered by hydrogen fuel cells, solar cells, or electric batteries.
Other alternatives are those that provide mobility without individual automobiles,
such as mass transit (busses, streetcars, subways, commuter rail, long distance trains) and
human-powered transit (walking, biking).
2.3 Technology Considerations
In this section, we work through characteristics, properties, and attributes specific to
the internal combustion engine system defined above. These characteristics are summarized
in Table 3-1 of the Technology Assessment Methodology and are described in more detail in
the remaining paragraphs of Section 2.3. Many of these considerations are examined in more
depth in Sections 4, 5, and 6 of the Technology Assessment Methodology.
2.3.1 Statement of Desired Outcome
In applying the RTI technology assessment methodology, a user would define the
desired outcomes for a new technology being assessed (such as "individual transportation,
but with fewer GHG emissions than the internal combustion engine" or "personal mobility
with equivalent convenience as the passenger car, but less cost"). Because this report deals
with a baseline assessment of an established technology, statement of desired outcome does
not apply here.
2.3.2 Definition or Identification of the Technology System
To assess the technology, it is necessary to narrow down the list of technology
considerations first developed in Table 3-1 into a definition of the technology's scope.
Specifically, the user must identify areas that are inside and outside of the assessment's
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scope. The following subsections illustrate the scope that RTI determined to create the
baseline assessment for internal combustion engines.
2.3.2.1 Boundary of the Technology
Each stage presented in the internal combustion engine life cycle (see Figure 2-1)
includes a number of unit processes. Because gasoline and motor oil are also required to
operate an internal combustion engine, the life cycle of gasoline and motor oil also need to be
considered.
Steel
Iron
Aluminum
Engine block
Fuel system
Transmission
Radiator
Exhaust system
Fuel spills
Environmental emissions
Oil/fluid changes
- Engine
- Fuel system
- Transmission
— Battery
— Oil/fluid disposal
Figure 2-1. Summary Illustration of Internal Combustion Engine Study Scope
Certain components of the internal combustion engine system were specifically
excluded from this baseline assessment to prevent unnecessary complexity given the time and
resource constraints of this analysis effort. The excluded components are shown in
Table 2-2. Expert judgment was used in excluding these components. In addition, we
excluded plastic from the analysis because it represents just 2 percent of the weight of a
typical engine and 1 percent of the transmission (Dhingra, 2001). This is a slightly less
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Table 2-2. Components Excluded from Internal Combustion Engine Study Boundaries
Plastic engine and transmission components
Rubber engine and transmission components
Wheels/tires
Battery production
Radiator fluid production
Transmission fluid production
Road building and maintenance
Settlement patterns associated with use of internal combustion engine
stringent cutoff than the common convention in life-cycle analysis practice, which is to
exclude components that are less than 1 percent by weight of the total product.
Note that this baseline facilitates comparison of other types of engines and fuel
sources. The problem could also be fruitfully scoped out addressing the gasoline-powered
engine as a transportation mechanism, in which case we would consider the building of
roads, and comparisons of other technologies would include human-powered transportation
(bicycles, walking), rail systems, as well as development planning issues (growth policies,
zoning issues).
Geographic boundaries for this analysis are shown in Table 2-3. We chose to look at
the United States' use of internal combustion engines in automobiles, but for production of
engines, a significant component of manufacturing occurs in Canada and Mexico; therefore,
production facilities in these countries are included in the scope of the assessment. Crude oil
extraction occurs all over the world, and our assessment reflects this fact.
As a baseline assessment, the temporal boundary for this assessment is present-day
use of internal combustion engine. We do not predict trends or trace the history of the engine
over time.
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Table 2-3. Geographic Boundaries
Major Stage
Substage
Geographic Boundaries
Raw materials production
Engine production
Automobile use
NA
NA
Consumer use of engine
Crude oil extraction
Motor oil production
Gasoline production/distribution
Disposal/recycling
North America
North America
United States
Internationa]
International
International
North America
NA = No substage is applicable.
2.3.2.2 Associated Technical Requirements
For an assessment of a new technology, this section of the report would identify any
new special technical needs associated with the technology. New technical needs might
include the ability to process special wastes that are a by-product of the technology, or a new
type of catalyst needed to make the technology feasible. In the case of a baseline technology,
the associated technical requirements have been already developed.
2.3.2.3 Scale Limitations
For an assessment of a new technology, this section of the report would identify any
scale limitations that the technology must accommodate, such as with compact fluorescent
light bulbs for home use that must fit into the light sockets and fixtures vacated by
incandescent bulbs. In the case of a baseline, the baseline technology largely defines the
scale limitations of any new technology being compared to it. For instance, a new technology
designed to replace the internal combustion engine will likely have to fit into existing
automotive body design. Likewise, any new vehicles are likely to have to fit onto existing
roadways, existing garages, and parking facilities.
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2.3.2.4 Replaces or Modifies What?
In the case of a baseline, this section of the methodology does not apply.
2.3.3 Performance
Performance of a new technology is the measure of how well it functions. In the case
of environmental mitigation technologies, emission reduction goals would be relevant, as
well as other performance features.
2.3.3.1 Operational Efficiency
For a new technology assessment, this section would address how well the technology
addresses the pollution problem that it is designed to address, such as GHG mitigation. For
the baseline performance of the technology, this section does not apply.
2.3.3.2 Temporal and Spacial Limitations
This section in a new technology assessment would address whether the technology is
limited by geography or by time. In the case of the internal combustion engine as scoped out
in Figure 2-1, the technology is limited in the long term because gasoline is derived from a
nonrenewable resource, and the world supply of oil may run out someday.
2.3.3.3 Performance Life
When comparing new technologies to the internal combustion engine, therefore, the
assessor would want to compare how often the technology needed to be replaced in its
performance life. Data were not readily available regarding the functional life of an average
internal combustion engine, although that information might be approximated based on the
length of time a car is owned by a household. In 1995, the automobiles averaged 8.2 years of
age, and one-third of vehicles were at least 10 years or older (DOT, 2000).
2.3.3.4 Associated Safety Issues
Safety issues associated with motor vehicles are used as a surrogate for safety issues
associated with the internal combustion engine. In 1999 the following injuries and fatalities
occurred in the United States (Transportation Indicators, 2000; Traffic Safety Facts 1999,
2001; Pipeline Statistics, 2000):
2-10
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• 41,611 people lost their lives in motor vehicle crashes—an increase of 0.3 percent
from 1998 (41,501 people).
• 3,236,000 people were injured in motor vehicle crashes—an increase of 1.4
percent from 1998 (3,192,000 people).
• Vehicle occupants accounted for 86 percent of traffic fatalities; 14 percent were
pedestrians, bikers, and other nonoccupants.
• The fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles of travel was 1.6.
• The injury rate per 100 million vehicle miles of travel was 121.
• The fatality rate per 100,000 population was 15.26, a decrease of 1 percent from
the 1998 rate of 15.36.
• An average of 114 persons died each day in motor vehicle crashes.
Titenberg notes that the social costs of private automobiles, including safety factors, are
typically not paid by individual drivers but by society as a whole (Titenberg, 2000).
We found statistics for hazardous liquid pipelines, which include petroleum and
petroleum products as well anhydrous ammonia. Accidents attributable to petroleum
associated with the internal combustion engine is a subset of these statistics. In 2000, one
person was killed, four people were injured, and about $92,657,407 of property was damaged
in 104 hazardous liquid pipeline accidents. The major cause for hazardous liquid pipeline
transmission/distribution accidents is outside force damage (U.S. Department of
Transportation, 2000).
Data relating to safety issues associated with raw materials production and disposal
are data gaps in this assessment.
2.3.4 Cost
Major costs associated with the internal combustion engine are explored in Section 4
of this document. They include the following:
• Cost to produce—critical cost components and
• Cost to operate^—energy. The use (driving) stage of automobile dominates the
vehicle's energy consumption profile for its life cycle. Material production and
2-11
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manufacturing phases contribute 13 percent of the energy used in the car's life
cycle (U.S. Car, 2000).
The cost to dispose of the engines after useful life is a data gap.
2.3.5 Development Status
2.3.5.1 Technology Impiementability
The internal combustion engine technology is fully developed.
2.3.5.2 Hindrances to Full Use
This section of the technology assessment methodology does not apply to this
technology, because the internal combustion engine is so widely adopted.
2.3.6 Introduction Considerations
Introducing a new technology may require little change and effort, or it may require
major shifts in environmental, economic, and social areas. In the following section we
present the baseline information that will be used when future technologies are compared to
the internal combustion engine.
2.3.6.1 Infrastructure Needed to Support the Technology
The infrastructure to support the internal combustion engine is fully implemented. It
includes infrastructure for producing/distributing gasoline and motor oil, engine repair shops,
roadways and parking lots.
2.3.6.2 Life of Existing Infrastructure
A data gap in this assessment is understanding the replacement needs of infrastructure
related to the internal combustion engine system. This information would be used when the
internal combustion engine baseline is compared to a new technology. The new technology
will require alternative infrastructure, which may be brought online as infrastructure becomes
obsolete. Infrastructure would include engine production capacity, crude oil exploration, and
gasoline production, for example.
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2.3.6.3 Investment Needs
Some amount of new investment in oil exploration, drilling, refining, and engine
production will be needed to maintain use of internal combustion engines as the dominant
transportation form in the United States. These investment needs would be competing with
investment needs of alternative and new technologies (as well as with other needs of society)
for investment funds.
2.3.7 Resource Needs
This section addresses the resources needed to implement the baseline technology.
2.3.7.7 Materials
A typical materials composition for the automobile internal combustion engine is
shown in Table 2-4.
Table 2-4. Typical Materials Composition of Average Internal Combustion Engine
Component Engine (kg)
Engine Iron
Steel
Aluminum
Plastics
Others
Transmission Iron
Steel
Aluminum
Plastics
Other materials
Weight of Materials (kg)
100
35
40
2
4
10
55
25
1
1
Source: Dhingra, Rajive, University of Tennessee, personal communication with Keith Weitz, Research
Triangle Institute. 2001. Information provided is based on proprietary data that has been combined
into major material categories.
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2.3.7.2 Production Processes
Production processes for petroleum: Crude oil is produced by drilling into porous
rock structures located several thousand feet underground. Once an oil deposit is located,
numerous holes are drilled and lined with steel casting. Some oil is brought to the surface by
natural pressure in the rock structure, but most oil requires some energy to drive pumps that
lift oil to the surface. When the oil is on the surface, it is stored in tanks to await
transportation to a refinery (Franklin, 1998).
Production processes for petroleum refining: A petroleum refinery uses physical
and/or chemical processing technology, especially distillation processes, to separate out pure
product streams. Products besides gasoline include kerosene, aviation fuel, diesel fuel, fuel
oils, lubricating oil, and feedstocks for the petrochemical industry (Franklin, 1998).
Components are separated according to light, middle, and heavy cut components. Motor oil
is derived from the heavy fractions of crude oil.
Production processes for the engine system: We found a data gap regarding major
production processes for the internal combustion engine and associated parts. Ideally, we
would want to describe here the major industrial processes involved in creating the engine,
such as engine formation, assembly, any surface coating operations, etc. The technology
assessment methodology suggests that we would then identify the major environmental
emissions associated with these processes, as well as identifying the facilities likely to
conduct the processes. In the case of the baseline assessment, it is less crucial to identify
these processes, because much of the environmental, economic, and social data that would be
gathered from these processes is already available and does not rely on an underlying
understanding of the production process to access it.
Production processes for raw materials (iron, steel, aluminum) are not described here
for the same reason that we did not invest extensive resources in describing detailed
production processes for the internal combustion engine.
2.3.7.3 Disposal
The disposal stage of this technology includes disposal of wastes from the technology
production processes, the waste generated by the use of the internal combustion engine, and
the components of the engine when they have reached the end of their useful life. Wastes
considered in this assessment are
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• engine block, fuel system, power train;
• battery; and
• oil and fluids.
Sixty-eight percent of solid waste, and 90 percent of metal waste to water are from
manufacturing. Ninety-six percent of automobiles enter the recycling process after their
useful life (U.S. Car, 2000). Specifics of the wastes are addressed in Section 3 of this report.
2.3.8 Links to Other Technologies/Industries
2.3.8.1 Impact on Other GHG Sources
Industries that are directly affected by the various elements of the internal combustion
engine system include all industries directly involved in manufacturing raw materials for the
internal combustion engine, manufacturing the engine itself, as well as those involved in
operating the engine in the use stage.
2.3.8.2 Co-control Benefits
This section does not apply to a baseline assessment, because it is not an
environmental mitigation technology.
2.3.8.3 Ancillary Benefits
Benefits from the internal combustion engine other than co-control include increased
mobility, ease of travel, and certain other social benefits described in more detail in
Section 6.
2.3.9 Technology Alternatives
Current American life is heavily influenced by existing transportation patterns, which
largely depend on transportation in vehicles with internal combustion engines. Two major
ones are land use (sprawl) and social patterns (urban disinvestment). Such patterns can
readily be imagined with other types of engines and a supporting infrastructure (e.g., engines
running on biofuel or natural gas). However other types of engines with shorter distance
ranges (electric, solar) would presumably lead to less spread out land use and therefore
different social patterns.
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2.3.9.1 Competing Technologies
Electric cars are an example of an alternative technology that could eliminate the need
for internal combustion engines in personal transportation. Identifying electric cars as a
potential competing technology does not address the issue of whether they are a better or
worse choice from a climate change perspective (i.e., potential transfer of GHG emissions
from the tailpipe to the power plant), but it indicates the need to investigate its potential
impact on continued dominance of internal combustion engine use. Increased use of mass
transportation would not eliminate the need for internal combustion engines, but it could
potentially reduce their overall usage.
2.3.9.2 Alternative Resource Uses
Alternative uses for the resources now devoted to the internal combustion engine
system include the following:
• Alternative uses for oil drilling sites: biodiversity and forest preservation,
indigenous language preservation, recreation/tourism
• Alternative uses for the fraction of crude oil now converted to gasoline: possible
conversion to other petroleum products
2.3.10 Technological Future
In assessing the potential for adopting a new mitigation technology and the effects of
other developments, the user's thinking should not be constrained to those competing,
alternative, or complementary technologies in existence. Technological innovations could
have a major impact on the decision to implement, or the extent of implementation of, the
mitigation technology. To the extent that these innovations can be conceived and defined to
a degree, their potential impacts can be examined.
Possible futures for transportation technology include
• personalized MagLev transit (e.g., the Sky Tran system) (SkyTran, 2000),
• automated roadways, and
• the Hypercar (Rocky Mountain Institute, 2000).
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2.4 Next Methodology Steps
As described in the Technology Assessment Methodology, next steps in an assessment
examine in detail specific data for environmental, economic, and social/political/institutional
impacts of the technology. Sections 3,4 and 5 of the baseline assessment discusses in detail
the issues brought up in this section. Table 2-5 shows which sections address each
technology characteristic and attribute discussed in the section.
Table 2-5. Important Considerations in Specifying a Technology and Sections in Which
They are Addressed in More Detail
Characteristic, Property or Attribute Relevant
Consideration Sections of Assessment Report
Section
Performance
Cost
Development status
Operational efficiency
Temporal limitations
Spatial limitations
Performance life
Associated safety
Cost to produce—critical cost component(s)
Cost to operate—energy, utilities, special
requirements
Cost to maintain—component life, downtime
Technology implementability—conceptual or
developed and if so at what scale
Hindrances to full use
Introduction considerations Infrastructure needed to support
Investment needs
Resource needs
Technological future
Materials
Production processes
Disposal
Alternative resource uses
Innovations that could influence adoption
Economic
Economic
Economic
Economic
Economic, social
Social, economic
Environment, economic
Economic
Environment, economic
Environment, economic
Environment
Economic
Social
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2.5 References
Automotive News. 2000.
Dhingra, Rajive, University of Tennessee, personal communication with Keith Weitz,
Research Triangle Institute. 2001. Information provided is based on proprietary data
which has been combined into major material categories.
Franklin Associates, Ltd. 1998. Energy Requirements and Environmental Emissions for
Fuel Consumption.
Heywood, John B. 1988. Internal Combustion Engine Fundamentals. McGraw-Hill, Inc.
Research Triangle Institute. 2000. Methodology for Integrated Assessments of Climate
Change Mitigation Technologies. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, National Risk Management Research Laboratory. Research Triangle Park,
NC: Research Triangle Institute.
Rocky Mountain Institute, . Accessed on January 3, 2001.
SkyTran. . Accessed on January 3, 2001.
Titenberg, Tom. 2000. Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, Fifth Edition.
Reading Massachusetts: Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
U.S. Car. . Accessed on December 2000.
U.S. Department of Transportation. 1995 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey.
. Accessed on December 15,
2000.
U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).
Transportation Indicators—Safety.
. Accessed on December 15,
2000.
U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
'Traffic Safety Facts 1999." .
Accessed on January 8, 2001.
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U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of Pipeline Safety, Research and Special Programs
Administration. Pipeline Statistics, . Accessed on
December 15,2000.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2000. . Accessed on December 14,
2000.
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SECTION 3
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
This section summarizes the methods used in completing the environmental section
of the technology assessment and results from that section. The four main steps in the
methodology to analyze the environmental impacts from an internal combustion engine are
• identifying potential impacts using matrix or questions,
• identifying and prioritizing corresponding data needs,
• gathering information or identify gaps, and
• summarizing and analyzing information (be aware of assumptions).
The discussion of assessment methods is organized by these four steps; the results section is
organized by environmental media.
3.1 Methodology
3.1.1 Identify Potential Impacts Using Matrix or Questions
For the environmental section, the matrix presented in Section 4 of the Technology
Assessment Methodology was used to identify impacts in each medium related to the internal
combustion engine, including issues involving raw material and engine production; oil
extraction, production, and distribution associated with automobile use; and the
disposal/recycling of the engine and parts. Refer to Figure 2-1 in Section 2 for a description
of the technology scope used in this assessment. Table 3-1 lists the categories of potential
concern or areas of investigation associated with the internal combustion engine. The list
was generated using the environmental assessment matrix.
For example, water impacts for surface water and groundwater are listed. Water
impacts mainly deal with the manufacture of fuel and engines, rather than the use and
disposal phases. However, there can be emissions from stormwater runoff resulting from
automobile use and disposal. Raw material production, engine production, and automobile
3-1
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Table 3-1. Potential Environmental Concerns from the Internal Combustion Engine
Potential Media Concerns
1. Water
Surface Waters
Drinking water quality/volume
Other designated uses (quality/volume)
Sediment contamination
Surface water runoff
Groundwater
Contaminant infiltration
Water table recharge/discharge
2. Air
GHGs
Ozone precursors
Volatile organc compounds (VOCs)
Hazardous air pollutants (HAPs)
Other criteria pollutants (e.g., SOX, NO,, PM)
Haze/visibility
Acid precipitation
Radio nuclides
Accidental releases
3. Soil
Soil contamination
4. Biota
Species diversity (plant and animal)
Sensitive species (plants, animals)
5.
Federally protected or state-listed species
Protected natural areas (e.g., parks, wilderness areas)
Other
Noise
Odors
View sheds
Aesthetic values
use can emit every type of air emission listed in the environmental matrix. Soil
contamination, which can stem from oil extraction and processing, or deposition of air
emissions from automobile use, is also noted. In the biota section, species diversity and land
issues are related to raw material production, engine production, as well as crude oil
extraction and production.
3.7.2 Identify and Prioritize Corresponding Data Needs
Table 3-2 provides further detail about the potential impacts in each area of concern
and outlines the data needed to evaluate those impacts. The data needs and priorities for each
of the areas of concern are included. Using expert judgment, we prioritized concerns
according to the likelihood of impact or seriousness of impact, as well as other issues. For
example, air emissions associated with the raw material production of steel and iron, along
with oil extraction and processing and the operation of automobiles combined, will be a
likely and significant impact. On the other hand, soil contamination from automobile use has
3-2
-------
Table 3-2. Environmental Data Needs
Priority
Potential Media Concerns
Water
Surface waters
Drinking water quality/volume, other designated uses (quality/volume), sediment contamination
• Water consumption volumes for industrial processes related to internal combustion
engines"
• Surface water discharge volumes and range of contaminant concentrations
• Geographic distribution of industries associated with internal combustion engines
• Description of waste management practices for industrial processes related to internal
combustion engines to determine potential contaminant runoff into surface water bodies
Surface water runoff
• Estimates of storm water runoff contamination from extraction and transportation of fuel,
vehicle gas and engine oil leaks, or other fluids from an automobile's disposal/recycle stage
Groundwater
Contaminant infiltration
• Description of waste management practices for industrial processes related to internal
combustion engines to determine potential contaminant runoff into groundwater
• Storage tank leaks at gas stations or other internal combustion engine facilities
Water table recharge/discharge
• Data on use of groundwater in industrial processes related to internal combustion engines
Air
High
High
Medium
Medium
High
Low
Medium
Low
High
Low
High
Low
Low
• Air emissions inventory for industrial processes related to internal combustion engines (air
toxics, criteria pollutants, GHG emissions, and all other air emissions that apply)
• Air emissions inventory for gas distribution pipelines (air toxics and criteria pollutants)
• Air emissions inventory for mobile sources (air toxics, criteria pollutants, GHG emissions,
and all other air emissions that apply)
• Air emissions inventory for automobiles in the disposal/recycle stage
• Locations of O3 and NO, nonattainment areas
Soil
Soil contamination
Low • Deposition of air pollutants to soil
Low • Soil contamination from automobiles in the disposal/recycle stage
Low • Soil contamination from raw material production and internal combustion engine
production
(continued)
3-3
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Table 3-2. Environmental Data Needs (continued)
Priority
Potential Media Concerns
Biota
Species diversity (plant and animal), sensitive species (plants, animals), federally protected or
state-listed species
Low • Information on the impacts of air pollutants on aquatic organisms
Low • Threatened and endangered species inventories in regions with concentrations of industrial
processes related to internal combustion engines
Protected natural areas (e.g., parks, wilderness areas)
Low • Information on traffic frequency and road proximity
Other
Noise, odors
Medium • Data on individual engine noise
Medium • Data on traffic noise in various settings
View sheds, aesthetic values
Low • Contribution to haze/visibility impacts
Medium Solid waste/disposal issues
The phrase "industrial processes related to internal combustion engines" refers to the industry sectors and
stages depicted in Figure 2-1, including crude oil extraction, motor oil and gasoline production, motor oil and
gasoline distribution, raw materials production, engine production, automobile use, and disposal/recycling.
declined with the use of unleaded fuels. Data for soil contamination from raw material
production and internal combustion engine production would also be sparse or uncertain, so
this impact was given a low priority.
3.1.3 Gather Information or Identify Gaps
Once the data needs were identified, we searched for information, starting with high
priority impacts. In a few cases, gaps were identified where more information was needed to
determine the relevant information or to actually retrieve the information. When a data gap is
identified in the results, it means that data were not readily available for this particular
analysis only, given the time frame and priorities. A more extensive assessment could
involve looking at additional resources, which may reveal additional data.
3-4
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3.1.4 Summarize and Analyze Information (be aware of assumptions)
When summarizing the information, data used will most likely come from a wide
variety of sources and therefore will be quite diverse. Data will range from qualitative to
quantitative and will not always be reported in comparable units. Units for various sets of
information include parts per million, pounds, and grams. In some cases converting units
would be possible; in other cases, conversion is not possible.
In addition, different studies will cover different scopes. For example, studies may
cover a certain list of pollutants and leave other pollutants out. For these reasons, it is critical
to note the unit of measurement and the scope of the study.
3.2 Results
Determining potential environmental impacts in this exercise was limited to readily
available sources. Within this framework, the results found are summarized in Table 3-3,
which lists the data need and a description of the data. Please note that emissions from
metals production, including steel and aluminum, focus on virgin materials rather than
recycled material.
The data presented here have not been normalized into equivalent units because of
time and resource constraints. Next steps for comparing these emissions to other
technologies would include
• more exact definition of an average engine's transportation function (introduced
on page 2-4 of this report)
• conversion of all emissions data to equivalent units based on the defined function.
3-5
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Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection
Data Need
Description of Data
Water
Surface Waters
Drinking water quality/volume,
other designated uses (quality/
volume), sediment contamination
• Water consumption volumes
for industrial processes related
to internal combustion engines'
Surface water discharge
volumes and range of
contaminant concentrations
For industry information related to engine production we assume that
most engines/engine parts are made of iron, steel, or aluminum
Producing 1kg of gasoline consumes 0.14 liters of water (Life Cycle
Inventory of Steel)
Water consumption volumes for raw material production of iron, engine
production, and industries associated with automobile use were not
found
Water emissions data were found for the production of gasoline, but not
for other industrial processes related to internal combustion engines
Water Emissions from Total Precombustion Fuel Use and Fuel-
Related Emissions for the Production of 1,000 Gallons of Gasoline:"
Waterborne Emissions
Acid
Metal ion
Dissolved solids
Suspended solids
Biological oxygen demand (BOD)
Chemical oxygen demand (COD)
Phenol
Oil
Sulfuric acid
Iron
Ammonia
Chromium
Lead
Zinc
Chlorides
Sodium
Calcium
Sulfates
Manganese
Fluorides
Nitrates
Phosphates
Amount (pounds)
1.2X10'7
0.0024
23.9
0.60
0.025
.34
7.9 x ID'6
0.42
0.0059
0.014
7.6 x 10-4
0.0011
2.0 x lO'7
3.7 x 10"4
1.09
1.4X10-4
7.6 x 10's
0.88
0.0078
3.5 x lO'4
3.3 x 10'5
0.0030
(continued)
3-6
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Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need Description of Data
Water Emissions from Total Precombustion Fuel Use and Fuel-
Related Emissions for the Production of 1,000 Gallons of Gasoline:1*
(continued)
Waterborne Emissions
Boron
Other organics
Chromates
Cyanide
Mercury
Cadmium
Amount (pounds)
0.024
0.072
8.3 x 10'5
1.6xlO-«
8.4 x 10'8
0.0011
Data for Production of 1 Ton
Waterborne Emissions
Dissolved solids
Suspended solids
Oil
Ammonia
Phosphate
Data for Production of 1 Ton
Waterborne Emissions
Acid
Ammonia
Ammonium ion
BOD
Boron
Cadmium
Calcium
Calcium ion
Chloride
Chloride ion
Chromates
Chromium
COD
Cyanide
Detergent
Dissolved chlorine
of Primary Steel:'
Amount (pounds)
1.73x10
6.54 x 10°
2.10 xlO-2
1.23x10-'
1.73X10'3
of Primary Aluminum Sheet/Coil:"
Amount (pounds)
0.2500011
0.0098
0.0021
0.29
0.52
0.0051
0.0022
0.023
5.17
0.089
0.00128
0.0051034
2.7
0.0012075
0.0013
0.00044
(continued)
3-7
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Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need
Description of Data
Geographic distribution of
industries associated with
internal combustion engines
Data for Production of 1 Ton of Primary Aluminum Sheet/Coil:d
(continued)
Waterborne Emissions
Dissolved organics
Dissolved solids
Fluorides
Hydrocarbons
Iron
Lead
Magnesium ion
Manganese
Mercury
Metal ion
Nickel
Nitrates
Nitrogen
Oil
Other organics
Phenol
Phosphates
Sodium
Sodium ion
Sulfate ion
Sulfates
Sulfides
Sulfur
Sulfuric acid
Suspended solids
Vinyl chloride monomer
Zinc
Amount (pounds)
"0.056
115.07
0.14
0.000032
0.695
0.0000729
0.0044
0.4
0.00000629
0.423
0.00000015
0.00437
0.0065
2.15
0.42
0.000874
0.066027
0.0041
7.89
7.08
5.23
0.00002
0.0012
0.13
10.8
0.00000006
0.001823
The U.S. Census Bureau has a manufacturing-industry series for several
industry sectors. Some sectors of note for this assessment are 3241
Petroleum Refineries, 3336 Other Engine Equipment Manufacturing,
and 3363 Gasoline Engine and Engine Parts Manufacturing. For each
sector a report lists the number of facilities in each state, total number
of employees, value of shipments, and lists of products. Because this is
a medium priority, the reports were not downloaded and analyzed,
although they could be in a full assessment for the appropriate Standard
Industrial Classification (SIC) codes (U.S. Department of Commerce,
2000a, b, c)
(continued)
3-8
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Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need
Description of Data
• Description of waste Data gap
management practices for
industrial processes related to
internal combustion engines to
determine potential
contaminant runoff into
surface water bodies
Surface water runoff:
• Estimates of storm water
runoff contamination from
vehicle gas and engine oil
leaks or other fluids from an
automobile's disposal/recycle
stage
Groundwater
Contaminant infiltration:
• Description of waste
management practices for
industrial processes related to
internal combustion engines to
determine potential
contaminant runoff into
groundwater
• Storage tank leaks at gas Data gap
stations or other internal
combustion engine facilities
Water table recharge/discharge: Data gap
• Data on use of groundwater in
industrial processes related to
internal combustion engines
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a website called National
Highway Runoff Water Quality Data and Methodology Synthesis,
which contains an extensive bibliography of highway runoff projects by
state. However, the website does not appear to contain any national or
regional estimates that would be useful to determine surface water
runoff at the national level (USGS, 2000)
Data gap
(continued)
3-9
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Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need
Description of Data
Air
Air emissions inventory for
industrial processes related to
internal combustion engines
Total Precombustion Fuel Use and Fuel
Production of 1,000 Gallons of Gasoline
Atmospheric Emissions
Particulates
Nitrogen oxides
Hydrocarbons (other than
methane)
Sulfur oxide
Carbon monoxide
Fossil carbon dioxide
Nonfossil carbon dioxide
Formaldehyde
Other aldehydes
Other organics
Ammonia
Lead
Methane
Kerosene
Chlorine
Hydrochloric acid
Hydrogen fluoride
Metals
Antimony
Arsenic
Beryllium
Cadmium
Chrominum
Cobalt
Manganese
Mercury
Nickel
Selenium
Acreolin
Nitrous oxide
Benzene
Related Emissions for the
,b
Amount (pounds)
1.05
7.22
5.16
20.8
5.42
2,239
5.20
l.SxlO'5
0.15
0.26
0.0019
1.1 x 10-4
3.45
8.9 x 10'5
4.0 x 10'5
0.020
0.0028
0.0021
3.2 x 10-5
6.7 x 105
4.7 x 10'6
l.OxlO-4
7.6 x 10'5
9.2 x 10'5
9.1xlO'5
2.2 x 10'5
0.0014
6.2 x 10'5
4.0 x 10'6
0.0024
0.3 x 10'5
(continued)
3-10
-------
Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need Description of Data
Total Precombustion Fuel Use and Fuel Related Emissions for the
Production of 1,000 Gallons of Gasoline:6 (continued)
Atmospheric Emissions Amount (pounds)
Perchloroethylene 3.9 x 10'6
Trichloroethylene 3.8 x 10'6
Methylene chloride 1.8 x 10'5
Carbon tetrachloride 1.6 x 10~5
Phenols 1.0 xlO"4
Nahthalene 6.0 x 10'6
Dioxins 2.2 x lO'11
n-nitrodimethylamine 8.4 x 10'7
Radionuclides 7.4 x 10"5
Data for Production of 1 Ton of Primary Basic Oxygen Furnace
Steel:'
Atmospheric Emissions Amount (pounds)
Particulates (total) 2.63 x 10'
Nitrogen oxides 5.52 x 10
Hydrocarbons (non CH4) 1.22 x 10'
Sulfur oxides 1.02x10'
Carbon monoxide 3.71 x 101
CO2 (biomass) 0.00 x 10
CO2 (non biomass) 3.64 x 103
Lead 2.26 x 10"»
Methane 4.62 x 10
Hydrochloric acid 1.36x IP'1
Iron production for engine parts generates air emissions, which result
from different production processes. The processes include mold and
core production; the melting process; and casting, cooling and finishing.
In the stage of mold and core production, the major pollutants are
particulates, VOCs, and carbon monoxides. The melting process emits
fumes, organic compounds (including VOCs), carbon monoxides, sulfur
oxides as well as particulates and dust, which includes calcium oxides,
iron oxides, magnesium oxides, manganese oxides, silicon dioxides,
zinc oxides, lead, and cadmium. As for the process of pouring, casting,
cooling and finishing, particulates are the primary pollutants (AWMA,
1992).
(continued)
3-11
-------
Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need
Data for Production of
Description of Data
1 Ton of Primary AIuminum/Sheet/Coil:d
Atmospheric Emissions Amount (pounds)
Acreolin
Aldehydes
Ammonia
Antimony
Arsenic
Benzene
Beryllium
Cadmium
Carbon monoxide
Carbon tetrachloride
CFC/HCFC
Chlorine
Chlorine
Chromium
Cobalt
COS
Dioxins
Fluorine
Formaldehyde
Fossil carbon dioxide
Hydrocarbons
Hydrochloric acid
Hydrogen cyanide
Hydrogen fluoride
Kerosene
Lead
Manganese
Mercury
Metals
Methane
Methylene chloride
Naphthalene
Nickel
Nitrogen oxides
Nitrous oxide
N-Nitrosodimethlamine
Other organics
0.00018
0.43
0.078
0.00022
0.00072
0.00019
0.000071
0.00054
159.1
0.00024
0.25
0.036
0.91
0.00097
0.0006
2.33
9.7 x 10-10
0.039
0.0008
22,655
35.45
4.8
0.077
1.45
0.0026
0.00042
0.0016
0.00057
0.6119
39.13
0.00074
0.000012
0.0079
102.07
0.1044
0.000038
1.16
(continued)
3-12
-------
Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need
Description of Data
Air emissions inventory for
gas distribution pipelines
Air emissions inventory for
mobile sources
Data for Production of 1 Ton of Primary Aluminum/Sheet/Coil:
.d
Atmospheric Emissions
"PAH "
Particulates
Perchloroethylene
PFC
Phenols
Radionuclides
Selenium
Sulfur oxides
Sulfuric acid
Trichloroethylene
The Department of Transportation's Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS)
implements the Department's national regulatory program to ensure the
safe transportation of natural gas, petroleum, and other hazardous materials
by pipeline. The annual pipeline statistics on distribution/transmission
mileage totals and accidents are available at .
This website provides accident summary statistics by either cause or
commodity regarding the numbers of pipeline operation accidents,
fatalities, injuries, property damages, and barrels lost (DOT, 2000)
Annual Emissions and Fuel Consumption for an "Average" Passenger
Car*
Amount (pounds)
OT43 ™
65.8
0.00017
0.8
0.00045
0.0030 Ci
0.0014
199.5
0.0045
0.00017
Pollutant Problem
Consumption
Amount
Pollution or
Miles* Fuel5
Hydrocarbons urban
ozone (smog) and air
toxics
Carbon monoxide
poisonous gas
Nitrogen oxides urban
ozone (smog) and acid
rain
Carbon dioxide global
warming
Gasoline imported oil
2.9 grams/mile 12,500 80 Ibs of HC
22 grams/mile 12,500 606 Ibs of CO
1.5 grams/mile 12,500 41 Ibs of NO,
0.8 pound/mile 12,500 10,000 Ibs of
C02
0.04 gallon/mile 12,500 550 gallons
gasoline
(continued)
3-13
-------
Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need
Description of Data
Annual Emissions and Fuel Consumption for an "Average" Passenger
Car* (continued)
Air emissions inventory for
automobiles in the
disposal/recycle stage
Locations of O3 and NO,
nonattainment areas
' These values are averages. Individual vehicles may travel more or fewer
miles and may emit more or less pollution per mile than indicated here.
Emission factors and pollution/fuel consumption totals may differ
slightly from original sources due to rounding.
f The emission factors used here come from standard EPA emission
models. They assume an "average," properly maintained car or truck on
the road in 1997, operating on typical gasoline on a summer day (72 to
96°F). Emissions may be higher in very hot or very cold weather.
* Average annual mileage source: EPA emissions model MOBILES.
5 Fuel consumption is based on average in-use passenger car fuel economy
of 22.5 miles per gallon and average in-use light truck fuel economy of
15.3 miles per gallon.
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. January 19, 2001.
"Annual Emissions and Fuel Consumption for an "Average
Passenger Car." EPA 420-F-97-037. National Vehicle and Fuel
Emissions Laboratory, .
Data gap
The National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1998
(http://www.epa.gov/oar/aqtrnd98/chapter4.pdf) contains a chapter about
nonattainment areas for criteria pollutants with a national map showing the
location of non-attainment areas. The chapter contains references to two
websites with nonattainment information
(http://www.epa.gov/airs/nonattn.html and http://www.epa.gov/oar/
oaqps/greenbk/). In short, there are no nonattainment areas for nitrogen
dioxide, and 31 for ozone, including several areas in California, and cities
in Texas, New York, New Jersey, etc. (EPA, 2000c)
Soil
Soil contamination: Data gap
• Deposition of air pollutants
to soil
• Soil contamination from Data gap
automobiles in the
disposal/recycle stage
(continued)
3-14
-------
Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need
Description of Data
Soil contamination from
raw material production and
internal combustion engine
production
Biota
Species diversity (plant and
animal), sensitive species
(plants, animals), federally
protected or state-listed
species:
• Information on the impacts
of air pollutants on aquatic
organisms
Data gap
The ECOTOXicology database is a source for locating single chemical
toxicity data for aquatic life, terrestrial plants, and wildlife. ECOTOX
integrates three toxicology effects databases: AQUIRE (aquatic life),
PHYTOTOX (terrestrial plants), and TERRETOX (terrestrial wildlife).
These databases were created by EPA, ORD, and the National Health and
Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Mid-Continent
Ecology Division.
ECOTOX gives different types of adverse effects that certain chemicals
cause and the concentrations at which the effects occur. While data for
toxic air pollutants would most likely be included, the criteria pollutants
might not be included.
However, ecological data generally do not include data for concentrations
in air because inhalation is not considered an important exposure pathway
for wildlife compared to eating and drinking; the data will consist of
concentrations in soil, plants, water, for example. TOXNET will have this
type of data for humans, and it will include air concentrations and
inhalation effects for humans.
Impacts on human health from automobile use emissions, including
paniculate matter, ozone, and other air emissions have been studied.
Paniculate matter from internal combustion engines is a significant health
issue that should be noted as a pan of this assessment.
One study determined that paniculate matter is related to the risk of
pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses in children and that the fine
fraction may be the most toxic (Illabaca et al., 1999). Another report
explains EPA's strategy for assessing the effects of ozone exposure on
morbidity. The three central questions in the strategy involve the
relationship of short-term ambient ozone exposure to acute respiratory
illness, the relationship of recurrent exposure to chronic respiratory
disease, and the relationship of recurrent exposure to development of acute
respiratory illness (McDonnell, Zenick, and Hayes, 1993).
(continued)
3-15
-------
Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need
Descriptio'n of Data
• Threatened and endangered
species inventories in
regions with concentrations
of industrial processes
related to internal
combustion engines
Protected natural areas (e.g.,
parks, wilderness areas):
• Information on traffic
frequency and road
proximity
Other
Noise, odors:
• Data on individual engine
noise
• Data on traffic noise in
various settings
View sheds, aesthetic values:
• Contribution to
haze/visibility impacts
A database of endangered and threatened species and their location by
county and state can be downloaded from this website. Data from this
website could be used to assess the geographic location of endangered or
threatened species in relation to gasoline or engine part production,
although establishing direct connections between the gasoline and engine
production would require additional research (EPA, 2000b).
While data were not found on traffic frequency in protected natural areas, a
map of roadless areas in the U.S. is available at
http://www.roadless.fs.fed.us/maps.usmap2.shtml. This map could be
overlayed on a map of protected areas to determine proximity of roads.
geographic information systems (GIS) applications could efficiently handle
this type of analysis, which was beyond the scope of this assessment
(USDA, 2000).
One model estimated that the cost of motor vehicle noise in the U.S. in
1991 ranged from $100 million to $40 billion per year. The base case
estimate is $3 billion. Noise is problematic because it disturbs sleep,
disrupts activities, and hinders work. Noise can also affect the value of
homes, so an econometric or hedonic model was used to produce the
estimates (Delucchi, 1998).
Data gap
Data gap
(continued)
3-16
-------
Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Need Description of Data
Solid waste/disposal issues Data for Production of 1 Ton of Primary Basic Oxygen Furnace Steel:
8.07 x 102 pounds of unspecified solid waste were reported (AISI, 1999)
Data for Production of 1 Ton of Primary Aluminum Sheet/Coil:
Solid Wastes
Ash
Environmental abatement
Municipal
Process
Pounds
2,425
707
389
5,528
° The phrase "industrial processes related to internal combustion engines" refers to the industry sectors and
stages depicted in Figure 3-1, including crude oil extraction, motor oil and gasoline production, motor oil and
gasoline distribution, raw materials production, engine production, automobile use, and disposal/recycling.
b Franklin Associates, Ltd. 1998. Energy Requirements and Environmental Emissions for Fuel Consumption.
c American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1999. Life Cycle Inventory of Steel. Developed for U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in Draft Report entitled "Life Cycle Inventory Data Sets for
Material Production of Aluminum, Glass, Paper, Plastic, and Steel" prepared by Research Triangle Institute.
d Aluminum Association, The. 1998. Life Cycle Inventory Report for the North American Aluminum Industry.
Prepared by Roy F. Weston, Inc. November, in Draft Report entitled "Life Cycle Inventory Data Sets for
Material Production of Aluminum, Glass, Paper, Plastic, and Steel" prepared by Research Triangle Institute.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1999. "Life Cycle Inventory of Steel." Prepared for the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in draft report entitled Life Cycle Inventory Data Sets for
Material Production of Aluminum, Glass, Paper, Plastic, and Steel. Research Triangle Park, NC:
Research Triangle Institute.
Air and Waste Management Association (AWMA). 1992. Air Pollution Engineering Manual,
Anthony J. Buonicore, and Wayne T. Davis, eds. New York: AWMA.
Delucchi, Mark, and Shi-Ling Hsu. 1998. "The External Damage Cost of Noise Emitted from Motor
Vehicles." Journal of Transportation and Statistics October: 1-24.
.
Illabaca, Mauricio, Ignacio Olaeta, Elizabeth Campos, Jeannette Villaire, Martha Maria Tellez-Rojo,
and Isabelle Romieu. 1999. "Association between Levels of Fine Particulate and Emergency Visits
for Pneumonia and other Respiratory Illnesses among Children in Santiago, Chile." Journal of the
Air and Waste Management Association (49):PM-154-163.
3-17
-------
Table 3-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
McDonnell, William F, Harold Zenick and Carl G. Hayes. 1993. "U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency's Ozone Epidemiology Research Program: A Strategy for Assessing the Effects of Ambient
Ozone Exposure upon Morbidity in Exposed Populations." Air & Waste 43:950-954.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. 2000a. Census of Manufacturing—Industry Series:
Gasoline Engine and Engine Parts Manufacturing. EC97M-3363B.
.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. 2000b. Census of Manufacturing—Industry Series:
Other Engine Equipment Manufacturing. EC97M-3336D.
.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. 2000c. Census of Manufacturing—Industry Series:
Petroleum Refineries. EC97M-3241A. .
U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). 2000.
Transportation Statistics Annual Report 1998—Chapter 5. .
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2000a. ECOTOX Database System.
.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Pesticide Programs. 2000b. "Endangered Species
Protection Program Databases." .
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 2000c. National Air Quality and Emissions Trends
Report, 1998. EPA 454/R-00-003. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 2000. "Roadless Area Conversation—Data used for
the draft of Environmental Impact Statement (EIA)." .
U.S. Geological Survey and the Federal Highway Administration. "National Highway Runoff Water
Quality Data and Methodology Synthesis." .
3-18
-------
3.3 References
Air and Waste Management Association (AWMA). 1992. Air Pollution Engineering
Manual, Anthony J. Buonicore, and Wayne T. Davis, eds. New York: AWMA.
Aluminum Association. 1998. "Life Cycle Inventory Report for the North American
Aluminum Industry." Prepared for Roy F. Weston, Inc. in draft report entitled Life
Cycle Inventory Data Sets for Material Production of Aluminum, Glass, Paper,
Plastic, and Steel. Research Triangle Park, NC: Research Triangle Institute.
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). 1999. "Life Cycle Inventory of Steel." Prepared
for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in draft report entitled Life Cycle
Inventory Data Sets for Material Production of Aluminum, Glass, Paper, Plastic, and
Steel. Research Triangle Park, NC: Research Triangle Institute.
Delucchi, Mark, and Shi-Ling Hsu. 1998. "The External Damage Cost of Noise Emitted
from Motor Vehicles." Journal of Transportation and Statistics October: 1-24.
.
Franklin Associates, Ltd. 1998. Energy Requirements and Environmental Emissions for
Fuel Consumption.
Illabaca, Mauricio, Ignacio Olaeta, Elizabeth Campos, Jeannette Villaire, Martha Maria
Tellez-Rojo, and Isabelle Romieu. 1999. "Association between Levels of Fine
Paniculate and Emergency Visits for Pneumonia and other Respiratory Dlnesses
among Children in Santiago, Chile." Journal of the Air and Waste Management
Association (49):PM-154-163.
McDonnell, William F., Harold Zenick, and Carl G. Hayes. July 1993. "U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency's Ozone Epidemiology Research Program: A
Strategy for Assessing the Effects of Ambient Ozone Exposure upon Morbidity in
Exposed Populations." Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association
(43):950-954.
Research Triangle Institute. August 2000. Methodology for Integrated Assessments of
Climate Change Mitigation Technologies. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, National Risk Management Research Laboratory. Research
Triangle Park, NC: Research Triangle Institute.
3-19
-------
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 2000. "Roadless Area Conversation—Data
used for the draft of Environmental Impact Statement (EIA)."
.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. 2000. Census of Manufacturing—Industry
Series: Petroleum Refineries. EC97M-3241A.
..
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. 2000. Census of Manufacturing—Industry
Series: Other Engine Equipment Manufacturing. EC97M-3336D.
.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. 2000. Census of Manufacturing—Industry
Series: Gasoline Engine and Engine Parts Manufacturing. EC97M-3363B.
.
U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of Pipeline Safety, Research and Special Programs
Administration. 2000. OPS Information System, .
Accessed December 15, 2000.
U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). 2000.
Transportation Statistics Annual Report 1998—Chapter 5.
.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1998, Table A-l: National Air
Quality Trends Statistics for Criteria Pollutants, 1989-1991.
.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2000. ECOTOX Database System.
.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Pesticide Programs. 2000. "Endangered
Species Protection Program Databases." .
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. January 19, 2001. "Annual Emissions and Fuel
Consumption for an "Average Passenger Car." EPA 420-F-97-037. National Vehicle
and Fuel Emissions Laboratory, .
3-20
-------
U.S. Geological Survey and the Federal Highway Administration. "National Highway
Runoff Water Quality Data and Methodology Synthesis."
.
3.4 Additional Sources of Information
3.4.1 Water
Aluminum Association, Inc. 1998. Life Cycle Inventory Report for the North American
Aluminum Industry.
3.4.2 Air
Aluminum Association, Inc. 1998. Life Cycle Inventory Report for the North American
Aluminum Industry.
Franklin Associates, Ltd. 1998. Energy Requirements and Environmental Emissions for
Fuel Consumption.
3.4.3 Life Cycle Inventory of Steel
Cadle, Steven H., Robert A. Gorse, Jr., Brent K. Bailey, and Douglas R. Lawson. 2000.
"Real-World Vehicle Emissions: A summary of the Ninth Coordinating research
Council On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop." Journal of the Air and Waste
Management Association (50):278.
Delucchi, Mark, and Shi-Ling Hsu. 1998. 'The External Damage Cost of Noise Emitted
from Motor Vehicles." Journal of Transportation and Statistics October: 1-24.
.
"Emissions—Conventional Vehicles" folder (such as Mobile sources critical review: 1998
NARSTO assessment, etc.)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1998—Chapter 4: Criteria
Pollutants—Nonattainment Areas and Appendix A: Data tables.
.
Winston Harrington. 1996. Fuel Economy and Motor Vehicle Emissions. Resources for the
Future. Discussion Paper 96-28.
3-21
-------
3.4.4 Soil
Aluminum Association, Inc. 1998. Life Cycle Inventory Report for the North American
Aluminum Industry.
3.4.5 Other
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1998—Chapter 6: Visibility
Trends, .
3-22
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SECTION 4
ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS IN THE USE OF INTERNAL COMBUSTION
ENGINE POWERED AUTOMOBILES
This economics section includes both a description of the use of the technology
assessment methodology developed previously and the results of the assessment for internal
combustion engines for automobiles. Section 4.1 describes how the methodology document
was used to shape the data-gathering needs for the current assessment. The basic economic
questions were those anticipated by the methodology document, although the unique nature
of the technology studied led to some changes in the detailed procedure. Section 4.2 presents
the conclusions of this data-gathering exercise, beginning with the ultimate driver of this
economic process, consumer demand for transportation services.
4.1 Methodology
The technology assessment methodology was developed to examine impacts from the
emergence and adoption of a new technology. As discussed in Section 2 of this document,
the methodology needs to be substantially modified for use in a baseline assessment of a
dominant existing technology. In this case, we must describe the economic "footprint" of the
technology now in existence and implicitly evaluate hypothetical states in which one or more
new technologies are considered as replacements for the existing goods and services. For this
reason, there will be no discussion here of the adoption and diffusion considerations from
Section 4.2 of the methodology document. The basic economic questions posed in Section
4.3 will be used, with some modifications, for the present study.
When examining the firms that produce engines and related components, the critical
questions involve marginal and fixed costs; potential for cost reductions driven by learning
curve or scale economies; and the nature of competition among the producers and their
suppliers of materials, labor, and other factor inputs. On the consumer demand side,
consumer needs for transportation services produce a demand for automobiles, which in turn
creates a demand for engines, drive trains, and other components. Key factors in assessing
demand include consumers' willingness to pay for the services, the availability and price of
4-1
-------
substitutes, and any psychic or nonmonetary benefits received as a by-product of the
consumption of the good in question.
4.1.1 Detailed Method for Defining Data Needs
Once the scope and limitations of the current study were established, we developed a
list of questions on the supply and demand factors noted above. The questions in Section
5.3.1 of the Technology Assessment Methodology were used to identify data needs relative to
supply and production, and those of Section 5.3.2 provided guidance on intermediate and
final consumer demand questions. The resulting items were incorporated into an economic
data needs checklist, which appears here as Table 4-1.
As with the technical information discussed in Section 3 of this report, economic
questions were assigned a priority of high, medium, or low, depending on how important the
data would be in shaping the resulting analysis. A fair amount of judgment was required in
making this determination, involving both economic and technical knowledge, but well
within the capabilities of the project team. Items assigned the highest priority were those
deemed necessary; a data gap in one of these areas would lead to an incomplete or flawed
analysis. Questions to which an intermediate priority was given were likely to provide
information that would produce a more thorough or robust report. For these first two
categories, a reasonable amount of effort was expended in searching out relevant information,
despite the limitations on time and effort imposed by this project. The lowest priority was
reserved for items considered optional for our current purposes, to be included only if data
were readily available.
The last two columns of the economic data table were added during the research
phase of this study. An initial screening of available resources yielded likely sources of
information, which were included in the third column. As data were gathered, we
summarized it in the last column, and the data source information was updated to include
those actually referenced.
4.1.2 Data Related to Models of Technology Adoption
The questions presented in Section 5.2 of the Technology Assessment Methodology
were not applicable for this baseline assessment.
4-2
-------
Table 4-1. Economic Data Needs
Priority Data Needs
Data Source
Data Results'
Engines and Drive Trains—Supply
Medium Who they are: which Automotive News—Market Data Book
High
companies make
engines, transmissions,
and related components
How many plants they
have, including
locations
pp. 113-122
Corporate websites:
• http://www.gmpowertrain.com/
about/locations.htm
• http://www.media.ford.com/
company/plantcfm
• http://us.media.daimlerchrysler.com
• http://www.ohio.honda.com/
manufacturing/facilities/index.asp
• http://www.toyota.com/ html/
about/operations/manufacturing/
manu location/index.html
Automakers: GM, Ford, DaimlerChrysler, Honda, Toyota
Engines: Dana, Cummins
Pistons: TRW
Turbochargers: AlliedSignal
Castings: Harvard, SPX, Internet Nemak, Grede Foundries
Parts: AisinWorld, Freudenberg, T&N
Spark plugs: Cooper
Engine Plants:
GM (11) = MI (5), OH (1), NY (1), TN (1), Ontario (1),
Mexico (2)
Ford (8) = MI (2), OH (3), Ontario (2), Mexico (1)
DaimlerChrysler (3) = MI (2), WI (1)
Honda (1) = OH (1)
Toyota (2) = KY(1),WV(1)
Transmission Plants:
GM (7) = MI (3), OH (1), TN (1), Ontario (1),
Mexico (1)
Ford (4) = MI (2), OH (2)
DaimlerChrysler (3) = MI (1), OH (1), IN (1)
Honda (2) = OH (1), NC (1)
Toyota (1) = WV(1)
Castings Plants:
GM (7) = MI (2), NY (1), OH (1), IN (1), TN (1),
Mexico (1)
Ford (7) = MI (2), OH (2), Ontario (3)
DaimlerChrysler (3) = IN (2), Ontario (1)
Honda (1) = OH (1)
Toyota (1) = MO (1)
Parts, exhaust, cooling systems locations omitted
(continued)
-------
Table 4-1. Economic Data Needs (continued)
Priority Data Needs
Data Source
Data Results'
Low What they make
besides engines
Medium What products are
complementary
Automotive News—Market Data Book
pp. 113-122
Low What research are they Company websites
doing on other types of
engines/cars
Note for RH column:
bold indicates future
italics indicates concept or demo car
Other auto components, truck, or motorcycle parts
1. Emission, exhaust systems: Arvin, Benteler, Calsonic,
AP Parts
2. Fuel systems: Visteon, Federal-Mogul, ABC Group,
Walbro, Solvay
3. Cooling systems: Valeo, Edhlin, Bundy, Eagle-Picher,
Behr
4. Transmissions: Thyssen Budd, BorgWarner, New
Venture Gear, MascoTech, Krupp Hoesch, ZF Group,
Honda Trans., Simpson, American Showa, NSK
5. Filter media
6. Coolants and fluids
7. Gasoline
8. Belts and hoses
9. Service and repair providers (e.g., Midas, Aamco, Jiffy
Lube)
10. Gasoline retailers
Ford: Selling vehicles with electric (Ranger), hybrid
(Escape), propane (F-series), natural gas (Crown Vic,
F-150), ethanol (Taurus, Explorer); will offer fuel cell in
2002 (Think)
GM: Introduced vehicles with fuel cells (Precept, EVI),
hydrogen (Zafira, HydroGen /), hybrid (GMT 800),
ethanol (S-10)
Chrysler: electric (EPIC), fuel cells (Citaro bus), hydrogen
(NECAR, Jeep)
(continued)
-------
Table 4-1. Economic Data Needs (continued)
Priority
Medium
High
Data Needs
Is the industry
competitive
How they are
manufactured: what
are resource
requirements, such as
raw materials, labor,
electricity, capital
assets
Data Source
http://www.census.gov/mcd/mancen/
download/mc92cr.sum
97 Economic Census
EC97M-3361A
EC97M-3361B
EC97M- 3363B
EC97M-3363G
EC97M-3363A
EC97M-3363K
Data Results"
Concentration Data from 1992 Economic
SIC Description
# of Establishments
Value
C4
C8
HHI
Value
Pur Mat
Cap Inv
Empl
Enrg Use
3711 Autos
398
$152 B
84%
91%
2,676
Automobiles
$385 B
$242 B
1.0 MM
$14.6B
26.7B kWh
Census:
3714 Parts
2,714
$75 B
48%
57%
943
Power Trains
$67 B
$41 B
250 K
$4. IB
9.1BkWh
Low Who provides inputs—
imports/exports prices
of inputs
Low Price of inputs
Low Is supply of inputs
reliable/competitive
30 percent of material cost for autos is power train,
comprising 22 percent of value of auto production; of PT
materials, 40 percent of cost is iron and steel, 10 percent is
nonferrous (mostly aluminum)
Almost all inputs are domestically produced; parts and
components are competitive, raw metals producers may have
market power. (This is true for engines and autos as a
whole)
Steel and aluminum fluctuate, others are stable to declining
Yes, except for specialized inputs, and perhaps for metals
(continued)
-------
Table 4-1. Economic Data Needs (continued)
Priority Data Needs
Data Source
Data Results"
Medium What other industries
compete for inputs
Low How big are the plants
regarding efficient
scale
Medium How has technology
for production changed
over time
High What are start-up costs
for setting up a new
plant
High Economy-wide effects:
is this an important
industry to the
economy—based on
sales and employment
N/A What about industries
that it supplies
Medium Are there substantial
imports/exports
associated with inputs
Automotive News—articles by Lindsay
Chappell on 5/1/00 and 12/4/00; Toyota
website
1997 Economic Census M98(AS)-1
Metals—most manufacturing sectors; machined and
fabricated parts— trucks, buses, ships, airplanes,
construction machinery, stationary engines
We must assume, with a mature industry, that plants are at
efficient scale
Continuous improvement mode, with costs stable, little
dramatic change
Honda new engine/assembly plant $400MM; GM new
engine plant S500MM; Honda Anna engine plant $ IB;
Toyota $584MM engine plant, $316MM transmission plant
Total value $385 B 10% of all manufacturing
Employment 1MM 6% of all manufacturing
Cap spending 26.7 B
Power trains = 1.7% of U.S. manufacturing value
Not if the scope is defined to include all of North America.
In gasoline production, of course, more than one-half of
petroleum is imported.
Engines and Power Trains—Demand
Medium Business: which Automotive News—Market Data Book
companies buy engines pp. 35, 37
Ford, GM, Chrysler, BMW, Mazda (Autoalliance), Honda,
Mitsubishi, Nissan, Nummi, Subaru, Toyota, VW, AM
General ("Hummer"), Mercedes
New car engines are supplied by the manufacturer
(continued)
-------
Table 4-1. Economic Data Needs (continued)
Priority
Low
Data Needs
How many engines
they buy — over a
period of time
Data Source Data Results"
Automotive News — Market Data Book
pp. 26-7 U.S. and North American Car and
Production (millions of units)
U.S.
Cars
92-OOav 5.9
99-Olav 5.6
Total NA 92-00
Total NA 99-01
Light Truck
North North
U.S. American American
Trucks Cars Trucks
5.9
7.3
8.3
8.2
16.0
17.4
7.7
9.2
Low
f- Medium
High
Low
Medium
What are engines for
What other types of
engines compete with
internal combustion
What are the
advantages of internal
combustion engines —
characteristics of
engines
How are engines used
by car manufacturers —
with or without special
equipment
What equipment on
cars/trucks specialized
for internal combustion
engines
1:1 mapping to auto, light trucks
Current mass market—diesel
Current specialized or future—electric, hybrid, hydrogen
Safe, reliable, well-established supply, huge investment in
human capital for production, maintenance
With application-specific capital
Drive trains, fuel, cooling, exhaust systems, filters
(continued)
-------
Table 4-1. Economic Data Needs (continued)
Priority Data Needs
Data Source
Data Results*
Medium Consumers: do
consumers buy engines
directly/indirectly
High What is the demand for
automobiles, engines,
transportation
U.S. Department of Transportation,
Summary of Travel Trends, 1999.
U.S. Department of Transportation,
Transportation Indicators, November,
2000.
Engines, transmissions—bought indirectly by mechanics as
replacements. Parts, including exhaust systems and filters,
are bought by consumers and mechanics.
1995 data: Table 23 (1999)
Total vehicle miles: 2.1 trillion
Percent of miles commuting: 31 %
1995 data: Figure 10 (1999)
Percent usually driving alone: 79.6%
Percent usually car-pool: 11.1%
Percent public transit: 5.1%
Percent others: 4.2 %
Expenditures on Transportation (2000, p.30) 1996 dollars
Medium Info about car Automotive News — Market Data Book
purchases for 2000 — accessed online at
http://www.autonews.com
Vehicles
Ql 1992 55 B
Ql 1995 62 B
Ql 2000 85B
North
Sales American Car
1995 7.0
1996 7.1
1997 6.9
1998 6.8
1999 7.0
2000 6.9
Ave 7.0
Transportation Services
41 B
SOB
62 B
Import Car
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.8
2.1
1.6
Of trucks, 91percent made in North American, 8
JP for 1999 and 2000
Sales increasing 3 percent per
1 percent per year
year vs population
Truck
6.1
6.6
6.9
7.4
8.2
8.4
7.3
percent in
increase.
(continued)
-------
Table 4-1. Economic Data Needs (continued)
Priority Data Needs
Data Source
Data Results'
Low What are
use/maintenance costs
Low What services are
required to support use
of cars/engines (service
stations/insurance)
Medium Available
complementary/
substitute products—
complementary; public
transport: substitute
High Price elasticity of
demand for
transportation
Medium Gasoline: who they
are, including sales and
employment
High What they produce—
gasoline, other
products, by-products
from refinery process
U.S. EPA, 1992
U.S. EPA, 1994
http://www.census.gov/prod/ec97/
97m3241a.,pdf, p. 7
http://www.census.gov/prod/ec97/
97m3241a.pdf, pp. 7, 12-13
Data gap
Gasoline stations, service and repair providers, vocational
training
Substitutes
For automobiles: trucks, RVs, motorcycles, bicycles,
public transit (bus, rail, subway), carpooling?
For 1C engines: diesel, new techs
For gasoline: ethanol
Transportation <-0.1
Motor vehicles -0.1
Petroleum refining -0.5
244 est. owned by 123 companies
inc. TX (49), CA ( 31), LA (25), PA (17), IL (13). 65K
employees
Concentration ratios:
4C = 30%, 8C = 49%, HHI = 414
S158B total value; $30B value added, $128B materials value
Gasoline—$77B or 49%; jet fuel—$14B (9%); other
lights—$30B (19%); heavy fuels, asphalt, and grease—$8B
(5%); liquefied gas—$8B (5%); other—$14B (13%)
(continued)
-------
Table 4-1. Economic Data Needs (continued)
Priority Data Needs
Data Source
Data Results'
High % of imports
Low Distribution networks
Medium Prices of gasoline
Low Types of gasoline
available
1997 EC Census EC97M-3241 A, p. 13 50.1 percent of total crude petroleum—$48B in 1997
www.api.org/industry/marketing/
markbasic.htm
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/aer/
From refineries, through pipelines (170K miles total), in
trucks or barges, to 1,300 storage tank farms, eventually to
180,000 stations
Half of all gasoline is marketed by 7,850 independent firms,
the remainder by integrated oil corporations
1995-99 ave price all = $1.20/gal
regular = $ 1.15, prem = $ 1.35
20% of gasoline sold is premium
In energy terms, gasoline cost = $9-10/MMBtu
Regular and premium unleaded, oxygenated, leaded (not in
U.S.)
± " Bold indicates future; italics indicates concept or demo car.
o
Sources: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). September 30, 1992. Economic Impact and Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis for
the Gasoline Distribution (Stage I) NESHAP-Draft Report for Proposal.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). April 1994. Economic Impact Analysis of the Aerospace Coatings and Solvents
NESHAP. Final Draft.
-------
4.1.3 Data Related to the Technology and the Economic System
The questions and issues raised in Section 5.3 of the Technology Assessment
Methodology document were relevant and adaptable for this assessment. Although most of
the data results are discussed here in Section 4.2, a few comments are in order as a conclusion
to this methodology section. Adequate data were found for all of the items assigned a high
priority, as well as for most of those in the intermediate classification. A couple of items
found to be inapplicable during the data collection process itself were coded NA. As with
many research tasks, the quantity of data gathered was uneven; vast amounts of information
were found for areas of marginal importance, while some critical questions produced only a
few scraps of data.
One of these critical economic questions yielding only a small amount of data was an
estimate of price elasticity of demand for transportation services, automobiles, and gasoline.
As discussed further below, these values tell us how consumer demand responds to changes
in price that will likely occur with substitution of a new technology for the old. If the
measured elasticities are high in absolute value, consumers will reduce purchases
significantly following a small increase in price and will presumably substitute other goods
and services for the one that has become more expensive. A regulatory restriction or tax on
this technology will have only a small impact on consumer satisfaction and social welfare.
If, on the other hand, the price elasticity is low in absolute terms, consumers will
continue to demand almost the same quantity of the good or service, even in the face of a
large price increase. The welfare consequences of imposing a punitive tax or mandating the
use of a higher-priced technology will be dramatic. Lacking any good substitutes and
unwilling to reduce consumption to offset the price increase, consumers will choose to divert
funds from other consumption goods to pay for the more expensive product. Social welfare
will fall as consumers must re-balance their budgets and purchase less of the other goods and
services in their consumption basket. From a technology policy perspective, therefore,
mandating the adoption of a new technology for meeting inelastically demanded consumer
needs is only optimal if the cost of the new technology will result in prices equivalent to that
experienced currently.
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4.2 Economic Analysis of the Internal Combustion Engine
4.2.1 Discussion of Demand Issues
When making decisions about purchasing and using automobiles and their engines,
consumers are considering the best way to meet an underlying demand for transportation
services. Although there are certainly psychological benefits from the driving experience,
brand image, and special features, the basic reason people own automobiles is to move
themselves from place to place. The quantity of transportation services demanded depends
on long-term decisions about employment, residence, and lifestyle, and some short-term taste
parameters like leisure choices. Personal consumption expenses on transportation services
have increased 4 to 5 percent per year in the United States over the past 8 years, much faster
than the rate of population growth (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2000).
Demand can be divided into at least three distinct service needs: commuting, local
nonwork transport, and vacation travel. These should be separated because their responses to
technology choices and price signals (i.e., their demand elasticities) are likely to be different
for these three needs.
1. Commuting—Commuting makes up 31 percent of passenger-vehicle miles; only
about 5 percent of workers report using public transportation, and 11 percent
claim they usually carpool (U.S. Department of Transportation, 1999). The
limited available data suggest that demand is very price and income inelastic in
the short and medium runs; the measured short-term price elasticity is -0.1. This
indicates that a 1 percent price rise will lead to only a 0.1 percent decrease in the
quantity demanded. Substitution with mass transit may be possible for a subset of
commuters, but despite many cost-benefit analyses that suggest public transit or
carpooling is optimal, most people have revealed a preference for their present
mode of travel. Evidently, these analyses are missing some important benefits,
perhaps nonpecuniary or psychological.
2. Local nonwork—The distinction between this category and leisure travel was not
available in the sources referenced. This demand is likely to be price inelastic in
the short run, but more elastic in the long run as consumers have an opportunity to
change the structure of their activities. In this case, however, public transport and
carpooling do not offer good substitutes. Travel patterns are not routine, a mutual
coincidence of needs that would allow carpooling is unlikely, and most
destinations are poorly served by public means. Consumers reveal their
4-12
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preferences by their actions, which suggest that substitution is unlikely at almost
any price.
3. Leisure travel—Consumers' demand for leisure travel is likely to be more price
elastic than the other two categories, both in the short and long run, although no
specific data were found for this study. Interestingly enough, consumers' ability
to substitute other forms of transport (air, water, train) for automobile use has
been hindered in past supply shocks by the parallel movements in prices of all
forms of travel. Petroleum-induced price rises affected air, rail, bus, and private
car travel simultaneously, resulting in a small negative quantity adjustment along
an underlying (unobservable) demand curve.
Given a demand for transportation services and preferences about forms of travel,
consumers then express a derived demand for automobiles. Over the past 5 years, sales of
automobiles and light trucks have increased by 3 percent per year, faster than the rate of
population growth, but not as fast as constant-dollar expenditures on transportation
(Automotive News, 2000). This suggests that consumers are also increasing spending per
automobile, both by driving each car more miles and by changing the mix to more expensive
automobiles. To a first order of approximation, the mapping from transportation demand to
automobile demand is 1:1 (i.e., everyone who needs transportation expresses a derived
demand for a car). As expected, demand elasticities for automobile purchases have been
measured at about -0.1.
Demand for internal combustion gasoline engines is derived from that of automobiles,
with one engine required per vehicle. This ratio is somewhat reduced by the use of diesel and
alternative fuel vehicles, but these numbers are quite small because of significant
disadvantages in the cost-performance tradeoff. On the other hand, some engines are
purchased as replacements for those that fail in service or are damaged by misuse or accident.
It is likely that these two effects, one that would raise the ratio and one that would lower it,
result in a proportion quite close to 1:1. For this reason, the price elasticity of demand for
internal combustion engines is likely to be -0.1 as well.
Engines, transmissions, and associated components are purchased indirectly by
consumers as an integral part of a new automobile. Although engine performance is an
important feature of the car's overall value proposition, seldom is that the only criterion for
purchase. Quantitative data were not gathered for this study on the importance of engine
characteristics in the purchase decision. Replacements for engine and power train products
4-13
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are also bought indirectly, most often by mechanics who provide service and maintenance for
automobiles in use. Shorter-lived parts, such as exhaust components and filters, are
purchased directly by consumers, as well as by maintenance personnel.
A number of complementary goods and services are required to support the use of
automobiles, and consumer demand for those items is strongly affected by that of the
underlying transportation service needs. These include fuel and lubricants, service and repair
providers, automotive insurance, and vocational training programs. The most important of
these is the purchase of gasoline and oil; recent data show annual expenditures of $130
billion in constant dollars (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2000). Although detailed
information on usage and maintenance costs was not found, aggregate statistics suggest that
the 100 million U.S. households spent almost 10 percent of their $34,000 average income on
motor vehicle purchases, and an additional 5 percent on gasoline and oil (U.S. Department of
Transportation, 2000). These figures approach the 17 percent of income spent on food.
4.2.2 Discussion of Supply Side Issues
To meet the varied consumer needs detailed above, a complex and well-established
automobile supply chain has developed over the past 100 years. The U.S. auto industry is
dominated by three large domestic automakers—Ford, General Motors, and
DaimlerChrysler—but also includes plants of foreign-owned Honda, Toyota, Mazda, Subaru,
Isuzu, BMW, Nissan, and Mitsubishi. In addition, the U.S. car market is served by a number
of importers, including Volkswagen, Volvo, Renault, Fiat, Hyundai, and Kia. The
automakers manufacture a number of key components in-house, including engines and
transmissions, and rely on thousands of suppliers to provide parts, subassemblies, and some
complete component systems.
The impact of this industry on the U.S. economy is considerable. According to the
1997 Economic Census, the motor vehicle sector, NAICS codes 3361 and 3363, made
products worth $385 billion and employed 1.0 million workers. Its activities account for 10
percent of the value of manufacturers and 6 percent of manufacturing employment. Capital
investment of $14.6 billion was recorded in 1997, and consumption of energy was measured
at 26.7 billion kWh. Engine and drive train production comprises a significant share of these
totals, with a value of production of $67 billion and employing 250,000 workers. Roughly 30
percent of the materials cost for an automobile is represented by engine and drive train
4-14
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components; this equates to 22 percent of the value of the finished vehicle (U.S. Department
of Commerce, 1998,1999).
For the Big-3 automakers, almost all inputs are produced in North America. Prices of
steel and aluminum fluctuate with trends in the commodities markets but are stable in the
long run. Parts and components prices are stable to declining, as technical improvements,
learning effects, and vigorous competition reduces unit costs over time. The supply of almost
all inputs is highly reliable, but with tens of thousands of individual parts, supply
interruptions can and do occur. Many other industries compete with the auto sector for
inputs, especially for sheet steel and raw aluminum. Machined and fabricated parts are
shared with producers of trucks, buses, ships, airplanes, construction machinery, large pumps
and motors, and stationary engines.
The technology for producing automobiles can be characterized as mature. Although
new components and features are frequently introduced, the automakers and most suppliers
are in continual improvement mode, with little dramatic change. In this case of long-
established supply chains and stable technology, economists assume that plants are operating
at efficient scale, with few opportunities for significant unrealized economies.
The domination of production, assembly, and marketing of automobiles by three firms
for more than 30 years has prompted economists to describe the industry as a classic
oligopoly. By any measure of market structure, the finished automobile sector is highly
concentrated: the most recent four-firm concentration ratio is 84 percent, the eight-firm
number is 91 percent, and the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index (HHI) is 2,676 (U.S. Department
of Commerce, 1992). The motor vehicle parts sector is much less concentrated, with an
eight-firm concentration of 57 percent and an HHI of 943. For perspective, a perfectly
competitive industry would have an HHI of 0; a monopoly market would have an HHI of
10,000.
Concentration has historically been a concern to policy makers and economists due to
the belief that firms in highly concentrated industries may enjoy a large degree of market
power and thus be able to set prices above socially efficient levels. More controversial is the
contention of a thread in the industrial organization literature, which suggests that firms with
market power are less likely to adopt new technology that has the potential to erode their
current profits. Both of these results require not only inelastic consumer demand and a lack
of substitutes, but also the ability to exclude new entrants from the market. The large start-up
4-15
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costs for new automotive facilities create the potential for barriers to entry, which could allow
firms to maintain this market power. For example, Honda recently spent $400 million on a
new integrated engine and automobile production plant and has invested almost $1 billion in
its large engine plant; Toyota is investing $900 million in a new engine and transmission
facility. It would take a great deal of additional economic research, however, to produce
empirical data to support a conclusion that the automotive industry's structure has negatively
affected the adoption of new technology, especially in light of the competitiveness of both the
global market and the supply chain for parts and components.
Moving upstream to the production of engines and drive trains themselves provides
additional insights into the factors that affect the current study. Each of the automakers
makes its own engines, transmissions, and castings, which are the most important and costly
components of the power train. The three U.S.-based automakers, along with Honda and
Toyota, produce these components in North America, while the remaining firms import them
from elsewhere in the world. Details of their facilities appear in the economic data needs
table from the first part of this section, along with information on producers of other parts
and complementary goods.
These key plants are heavily concentrated in the Great Lakes area, with the largest
share in Michigan, Ohio, and Ontario. Nine engine plants, six transmission facilities, and
four castings plants are located in Michigan, for a total of 19; Ohio is home to 14 plants, and
Ontario hosts eight. A list of parts and components suppliers would show a similar clustering
of locations within 200 to 300 miles of Detroit, the center of the North American automotive
universe. These plants are almost totally dependent on business from automobiles and light
trucks, with a few also supporting motorcycle, heavy truck, bus, RV, and/or construction
equipment production. Any analysis of the economic impacts of new automotive power
generation technology would have to include the inevitable dislocation and loss to the Great
Lakes region.
In fact, the huge investment in plant and equipment could form a powerful barrier to
adoption and diffusion of new technologies. Much of the capital embodied in the engine,
transmission, castings, and parts plants is specific to internal combustion technology; it may
have far less value in any alternate use. When faced with the threat of obsolescence and
shutdown, owners of these fixed assets will reduce prices below their total average cost.
They will continue to produce as long as they can cover their variable (out-of-pocket) costs,
4-16
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correctly considering their depreciation and other fixed costs to be sunk. For the replacement
technology to be fully adopted in this environment, its total unit cost must fall below the
variable costs of the defender technology.
In the face of this potential threat of obsolescence, and stimulated by actual and
potential regulatory requirements, the large automakers are actively pursuing development of
new engine technologies. Ford is currently selling vehicles featuring electricity, natural gas,
propane, and ethanol as power sources and will soon begin selling fuel cell and hybrid
automobiles. General Motors is currently marketing an ethanol-burning S-10 and a
hydrogen-fueled Zafira and has produced concept cars that use fuel cell and hybrid engines.
DaimlerChrysler has begun marketing a bus run by fuel cells and will shortly introduce
electric and hydrogen-burning vehicles. As stated in Section 4.2.1, the future market success
of these new technologies depends on reducing costs to the point that the cost-performance
tradeoff is equivalent to the bulk of the automobiles now being purchased.
4.2.3 Considerations Related to Gasoline Production and Use
Many of these same issues are relevant in considering supply of gasoline and oil, the
most important complementary goods to internal combustion engine automobiles. The
development of exploration, processing, and distribution of petroleum products throughout
the 20th century was driven by the power needs of cars, trucks, tractors, and other motor
vehicles. Today, crude petroleum is produced and sold in a world market, and its continued
supply is one of the most important strategic factors for our government. Almost exactly half
of the petroleum consumed in the United States is imported; purchases totaled $48 billion in
1997 (U.S. Department of Commerce, 1999).
Petroleum is refined into gasoline and other components at 244 refineries across the
country, owned by 123 companies. There is a geographic concentration near domestic crude
sources in Texas, with 49 facilities, and Louisiana, with 25 units. The remainder of the
industry is spread out in rough proximity to population: other states with large numbers of
refineries include California (31), Pennsylvania (17), and Illinois (13). The structure of the
sector is highly competitive, with an eight-firm concentration ratio of 49 percent and an HHI
of 414. There should be few concerns in this industry with monopolization or with any
resulting welfare-reducing or technology-hindering behaviors.
4-17
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In terms of overall economic impact, this sector's importance depends on the measure
used to evaluate it. Total shipment value of $158 billion comprises 4 percent of all
manufacturing, but most of the sales value is in purchased materials. Refining's value added
of $30 billion is only 1.5 percent of the comparable total for the United States as a whole, and
its 65,000 employees make up less than half of 1 percent of the country's manufacturing
workers. Extraction and production of domestic crude both employs more people and adds
more value than refining.
Crude petroleum is chemically cracked in a refinery, followed by separation into light,
middle, and heavy-cut components. Although gasoline is one of many products made in this
process, it is by far the most important. Its sales value of $77 billion is half of total refinery
value, which also includes jet fuel (9 percent); other light components (19 percent), heavy
fuels, asphalt, and grease (5 percent); and liquefied gas (5 percent). Motor oil is derived from
the heavy fractions of petroleum and comprises a small portion of total value.
Once gasoline leaves the refinery, it enters a large and complex distribution system,
finally arriving at 180,000 gasoline stations across the country. The distribution system
includes 170,000 miles of pipeline, 1,300 storage tank farms, and numerous trucks and
barges. Half of all gasoline is handled by large integrated producers, such as Texaco and
Exxon, while the remaining product is marketed by 7,850 independent firms (American
Petroleum Institute, 2001). Gasoline marketing and retailing are among the most competitive
businesses in the country, with little or no ability of independent firms to control prices or
make significant profits.
Prices of gasoline are very closely related to the underlying cost of crude oil, with
large fluctuations resulting from global economic and supply conditions. As one would
expect with a nonrenewable resource, the long-term trend is for rising real prices; the most
recent average prices per gallon for all grades is $1.20. About 20 percent of all gasoline sold
is premium, with a 1995-1999 average price of $1.35 (U.S. Department of Energy, 2000). In
addition to varying octane grades, retailers in certain areas of the country are required to sell
oxygenated or reformulated gasoline, which is produced at only a small number of refineries.
Evaluating the threat to the petroleum industry from a potential replacement of the
internal combustion engine is too complicated to be considered in detail here, but a few
issues would certainly arise. Refineries, like most chemical processes, operate cost-
effectively only at very high rates of capacity; as a result, they either run flat out or shut
4-18
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down. Faced with declining demand for gasoline, the industry's supply would be reduced in
steps, as each unneeded refinery closed. Large swings in prices could be expected as
temporary imbalances in market equilibrium were experienced. As gasoline, jet fuel, diesel
fuel, asphalt, and liquid petroleum gas are all co-products, a loss of demand for gasoline
would negatively affect supply for all of these products as well. With only an imperfect
ability to change the product mix in refineries, prices of these co-products would likely rise as
they were forced to bear more of the costs of operation. Finally, reduction or elimination of
markets for gasoline would create closures in domestic petroleum extraction and production,
gasoline marketing and distribution, and retailing. The extent of these latter effects would be
highly dependent on the nature of the substitute technology, and whether it required a
consumable fuel source (such as methanol or hydrogen) that would be retailed in a manner
similar to gasoline.
4.3 References
American Petroleum Institute. 2001. . As accessed on
January 11,2001.
Automotive News. 1997. Automotive News Market Data Book—7997. Detroit: Grain
Communications.
Automotive News. 2000. Automotive News Market Data Book—2000.
. As accessed on January 8,2001.
Chappell, Lindsay. May 1,2000. "Honda Sees Earlier Output." Automotive News.
. As accessed on January 8,2001.
Chappell, Lindsay. December 4, 2000. "No Idle Time for Engine Planners." Automotive
News, . As accessed on January 8, 2001.
DaimlerChrysler—Media Home—Fact Sheets. 2001. . As accessed on January 11, 2001.
Ford Media Site—2000 Plant Guide. 2001. . As accessed on January 11, 2001.
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Honda of America—Manufacturing Facilities. 2001. . Accessed on January 11,2001.
Research Triangle Institute (RTI). August 2000. Methodology for Integrated Assessments of
Climate Change Mitigation Technologies. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, National Risk Management Research Laboratory. Research
Triangle Park, NC: Research Triangle Institute.
Toyota—About Toyota—Operations—Manufacturing Locations. 2001.
As accessed on January
11,2001.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. Economic Census 1992, Concentration
Ratios in Manufacturing. MC92-S-2. . As accessed on December 11, 2000.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. 1998. Economic Census 1997, Statistics for
Industry Groups and Industries. M98(AS)-1. Washington: U.S. Department of
Commerce, . As accessed on
December 11,2000.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. 1999. Economic Census 1997,
Manufacturing Industry Series 3241A, 3361 A, 3361B, 3363B, 3363G, 3363A, 3363K.
Washington: U.S. Department of Commerce, . As accessed on December 11, 2000.
U.S. Department of Energy. September 2000. Annual Energy Review. Washington: U.S.
Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, . As access on January 11, 2001.
U.S. Department of Transportation. December, 1999. Summary of Travel Trends: 1995
Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey. U.S. Department of Transportation,
Federal Highway Administration, . As accessed on December 15, 2000.
U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. November 2000.
Transportation Indicators, . As accessed on
December 15, 2000.
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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). September 30, 1992. Economic Impact and
Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis for the Gasoline Distribution (Stage I)
NESHAP-Draft Report for Proposal.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). April 1994. Economic Impact Analysis of the
Aerospace Coatings and Solvents NESHAP, Final Draft.
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SECTION 5
POLITICAL, INSTITUTIONAL, AND SOCIAL CONSIDERATIONS IN THE
ADOPTION AND PENETRATION OF THE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE
5.1 Methodology
This section of the baseline internal combustion engine assessment discusses the
political, institutional, and social considerations. We began the assessment by examining the
questions in the summary table from the Technology Assessment Methodology (RTI, 2000).
Each of these questions was considered a data need and ranked according to how relevant or
important it might be to the baseline assessment. This list of data needs is shown in Table
5-1. Based on the list, data were collected from available sources, and data gaps were
identified. We summarized the information and entered it in the relevant sections of
Section 5. During that process, other data needs became apparent, and we returned to our
data sources to identify further information. We summarize data collected and data gaps that
were found.
5.2 Political Considerations
Certain political considerations that would be relevant to discussion of how likely a
new technology is to be adopted are not relevant to this baseline assessment. These include
the following questions:
• Is adoption of the technology likely to be affected by the current administration's
general stance toward the environmental problem the technology is designed to
address?
• Is this technology part of a country's national security agenda (e.g., reducing
reliance on imported oil)?
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Table 5-1. Preliminary List of Data Needs for Section 5
Priority'
Generalized Questions
Internal Combustion Engine Baseline Assessment Data
Needs
to
Medium What is the current political system's stance toward global
climate change and mitigation technology?
Medium Is the technology part of the country's national security
agenda?
Medium Is development of the technology part of the country's trade
policy agenda?
NA What is the scale of the technology-macro, micro, or
efficiency improving?
Medium Who are the stakeholders?
High
High
NA
NA
NA
NA
Who will be the beneficiaries of the technology? Who
stands to be hurt by adoption of the technology?
What is the extent of benefit or hurt to the respective
political groups?
Is the country in which the technology would be
implemented industrialized or developing?
What direct or indirect institutional influences may speed or
slow adoption?
What current codes and standards would influence this
technology, what are anticipated trends of legislation?
Are there barriers to technology adoption/diffusion due to
formal institutions?
Who is(are) the likely implementing body(s)?
What congressional actions have been taken to promote/hinder
climate change mitigation?
What presidential actions have been taken for same?
What do national energy and national security policies say about
gasoline? Is reduction in gasoline use part of the strategy?
Is export of internal combustion engines part of U.S. trade
priorities? Is export of internal combustion pollution control
devices part of U.S. trade priorities?
What nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are involved in
gasoline/motor transport policy?
What auto lobbying bodies are there?
Morbidity and mortality rates associated with automobile
pollution
Economic damage to forests from smog
What percent of the smog is car related vs. power
plants/industrial sources?
(continued)
-------
Table 5-1. Preliminary List of Data Needs for Section 5 (continued)
Priority3
Generalized Questions
Internal Combustion Engine Baseline Assessment Data
Needs
NA
NA
Medium
Medium
High
NA
High
What is the decisionmaking structure?
Does the implementing body have political backing, does it
demonstrate leadership, and enforcement determination, does
it have accountability and managerial autonomy?
What institution(s) would likely finance the technology?
Are there international treaties, conventions, or agreements
influencing technology adoption/dispersion?
What is the relationship between population demographics
and the technology?
What factors influence an individual's willingness to adopt a
new technology?
Will interaction between individual psychology and group
psychology help or hinder technology implementation?
Are there cultures or norms that could influence an
individual's willingness to adopt the technology?
Are there environmental justice or equity issues to be
considered?
Which government, nonprofit, or private bodies are doing
research on improving internal combustion engines?
Do any treaties influence U.S.' ability to restrict imports of
internal combustion engines?
What are the trends of car ownership per capita?
What is distribution of low income/minority populations
around refineries vs. elsewhere?
Impact of oil drilling on indigenous peoples (number of tribes
displaced; level of violence associate with unwanted drilling)
Percent of U.S. minority/low income people whose well water
is affected by leaky gas stations vs. affluent communities
Incidence of transportation-related asthma in minority/poor
communities vs. wealthy ones
Are there second generation technology impacts?
High importance, medium importance, NA = not applicable to baseline assessment.
-------
5.2.7 Is Manufacture and Export of Internal Combustion Engines Part of the Country's
Trade Policy Agenda?
This area is a data gap in our information gathering. The objective of having this
information is to figure out whether the manufacture and export of the internal combustion
engine technology (likely in the form of entire automobiles) is receiving federal support as
part of national trade policy. This federal support will affect the likely support available for
future technologies that modify or replace the internal combustion engines.
5.2.2 Is this Technology of the Macro or Micro Type?
The scale of a technology (centralized/large or decentralized/small) impacts a
technology's ease of widespread adoption. For purposes of the baseline technology, the scale
is relevant to comparison with new technologies. The internal combustion engine is a micro
technology itself yet requires a large scope of supportive infrastructures such as roads and
parking lots. Motor oil and gasoline also require a large scope of supportive infrastructure,
such as pipelines, refineries, and gas stations. Possible presentation for assessment of
supporting infrastructure needed for a new micro-scale technology compared to the baseline
might be as shown in Table 5-2.
Table 5-2. Suggested Presentation of Scale Issues for New Technology Compared to
Baseline
Type of Required
Infrastructure to Support Baseline Internal Combustion
Micro-Scale Technology Engine New Technology
Power source Pipelines, refineries, and gas ??
stations
Specialized storage Parking lots, garages ??
Other Road network ??
5.2.3 Who Are the Stakeholders in the Internal Combustion Engine Technology?
Stakeholders include the following:
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• manufacturing firms and their suppliers (producers of the technology and inputs to
the technology shown in Figure 3-1);
• labor unions (e.g., United Auto Workers Union);
• environmental NGOs (e.g., Sierra Club); and
• consumers (low-income older-car drivers, drivers of newer vehicles).
Further clarification of stakeholders is found by examining the groups who will be the
main beneficiary of the technology. The technology assessment methodology categorizes the
beneficiaries of a technology as three general types of stakeholders: the producer, the
consumer, and the environment. This baseline information is expected to help assessors of
new technology identify potential sources of opposition and support (as well as perhaps to
conceive compensatory policy measures for potential losers to accompany any new
technology implementation). Further detail about these stakeholder groups is presented in the
remainder of this subsection.
5.2.3.1 Producer Stakeholders
Producer stakeholders include producers of the inputs to the technology, producers of
goods and services complementary to the technology, employees (current, displaced, and
potential new hires), capital owners of various production facilities, and stockholders of
producer companies. As described in Section 4 (Economics), some producer stakeholders
have been venturing into development of new engine technologies to ensure that they are not
made obsolete with changing technology. However, the automotive industry also has a
history of using its political power to prevent threats to their existing product lines (such as
air bags and improved fuel efficiency).
5.2.3.2 Consumer Stakeholders
Consumers who use the internal combustion engine are stakeholders in the
technology. The technology assessment methodology proposes that the change in consumer
welfare from one technology to another is the chief concern to be assessed regarding
consumer stakeholders. An appropriate measure of consumer well-being related to the
internal combustion engine is the per-mile cost of travel. Currently, federal guidelines for
milage reimbursement estimate the cost of use for a personal car as averaging 34.5 cents per
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mile. This does not take into account the cost of owning the vehicle (capital cost plus interest
for vehicles that are financed).
5.2.3.3 Environment
The impacts of the internal combustion engine on the "environmental stakeholder"
would be measured by the environmental pollutants and other impacts discussed in Section 3
of this document.
5.2.4 How Are Technologies Linked to Changes in Competitive Advantage for Various
Political Groups?
For the baseline assessment, change in competitive advantage is not an issue, because
we are looking at a relatively static system. For assessments of technologies that will be
compared to the baseline of the internal combustion engine, the assessor should work through
the list of stakeholders and beneficiaries presented above and estimate the likely change each
group would see in its measure of well-being.
5.3 Institutional Considerations Relevant to Internal Combustion Engines
Institutions are norms, beliefs, and practices that influence human behavior, practice,
and expectations shared by every member of the society. Institutions exist to reduce
information costs and transaction costs incurred during each economic or political exchange
between individuals and markets, and between individuals and the state (e.g., their
representatives or elected officials). In providing the baseline description of the internal
combustion engine technology, we identified the way the technology relates to formal
institutions. The remainder of this subsection discusses these relationships. Informal
institutions such as cultures, norms, preferences, and expectations are addressed in
Section 5.4.3.
5.3.7 What Are the Formal Institutions Which Are Invested in the Baseline Technology
Such That They Might Create Barriers to Adoption/Diffusion of New
Technologies?
Institutional barriers to technologies can exist for three different reasons. An
institution might construct barriers if it feels its well-being is threatened by a new technology.
Existing institutions that might be sufficiently invested in the internal combustion engine to
erect barriers to new technologies include federal and state departments of transportation.
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These departments often identify their missions as building roads to accommodate increased
traffic of internal combustion engine vehicles (relevant if the new technology were oriented
towards reducing the number of cars on the road, or if the new technology were competing
for funds from transportation budgets).
Institutions are often potential receptacles of new technologies themselves. The
internal combustion engine is relatively entrenched as a transportation technology used by
U.S. institutions. For instance, while some state and federal vehicle fleets use natural gas or
electric cars, by far the majority of government fleets are conventional internal combustion
engines.
Market imperfection barriers refer to those that result from inequitable access to
capital and information, obsolete and restrictive regulations, and/or split incentives.1 This
category of institutional barriers is called market imperfection barriers. Data gaps in this
baseline related to market imperfection barriers include information regarding whether
restrictive regulations favor the internal combustion engine (such as rules within tax codes or
federal/state procurement regulations).
Agencies often experience technological lock-ins and path dependence that prevent
them from adopting the newest technology. Technological lock-ins data that were
unavailable for this baseline would be related to the information described above in market
imperfections: are there rules or regulations that prescribe or strongly favor the internal
combustion engine? Such rules can prevent institutional adoption of future alternative
technologies.
5.3.2 What Institutional Factors Can Stall a Technology Project?
This section relates to assessment of whether a new technology project has sufficient
institutional support to become viable. Institutional factors relating to the baseline
technology assessment include institutional factors that promote the internal combustion
engine. These include low gasoline prices, not reflecting the environmental costs of using
'in the case of rental housing, for instance, the owners would have disincentives to retrofit the apartments with
energy-saving technologies (unless they can charge higher rents, which is difficult in a competitive
market), whereas the renters would enjoy lower energy bills, which would result if such technologies were
installed, hence the split incentive.
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gasoline, which could work against greener technologies since the incentives to reduce
gasoline use or seek substitutes for gasoline are curtailed.
5.3.3 Are There Ways That Within-Institutional Barriers, Such as the Lack of a Skill
Base, Can Be Addressed?
The development of a particular project will not be possible unless an adequate skill
base exists or can be developed. In the case of the baseline technology, the skill base to use
the internal combustion engine is readily available, thus skills are not an issue for the
baseline.
5.3.4 What Are the Direct and Indirect Influences of Institutions in Shaping a
Technology?
This section of the technology assessment methodology guides the user in identifying
how institutional influences on a new technology will affect likely adoption of that
technology. In the case of the baseline internal combustion engine technology, adoption has
already occurred. Therefore, this section of the methodology is not relevant to the baseline.
5.3.5 Who Is (Are) the Implementing Body (Bodies) for the Technology? What Does the
Decisionmaking Structure Surrounding the Adoption of the Technology Look
Like?
Like Section 5.3.5, above, this section of the technology assessment methodology
guides the user in identifying how a factor (decision-making structure of implementing
bodies) impacts the likely adoption of a new technology. As above, adoption has already
occurred. Therefore, this section of the methodology is not relevant to the baseline.
5.3.6 Does the Implementing Body Have Political Backing for this Technology? Does It
Demonstrate Leadership and Enforcement Determination? Does It Have
Accountability and Managerial Autonomy?
This section is not relevant to the baseline assessment but should be considered in
comparing a new technology to the baseline.
5.3.7 What Are the Current Legislatures, Codes, and Standards Influencing this
Technology? What Are the Anticipated Trends of Current Legislation ?
For a new technology, tracing the rules, regulations, codes, and standards that directly
and indirectly affect a project can help the assessor understand the regulatory context in
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which the new technology must be introduced. Mapping out the direct and indirect rules and
regulations surrounding a project would inform the assessor of the limiting and supporting
factors surrounding the design and implementation of the pilot. The assessor can then
determine whether it is possible and, if so, how to handle the obstructing factors and use the
supporting factors. Identifying these rules is not necessary for the baseline assessment,
because the internal combustion engine has gained near 100 percent market penetration.
5.3,8 Who Is (Are) the Financial Institution^) Involved in Financing the Technology?
Current financing for the internal combustion engine is primarily private sector and
operates within the existing capital system. Some state and local government subsidies are
found for locating and operating new engine production facilities, for which states often
compete by offering tax breaks and other favorable treatment. Indirect subsidies existing for
the supporting infrastructure of the internal engine technology, primarily in the form of an
extensive roadway system financed by taxpayer money. Other indirect subsidies are seen in
the externalities of the internal combustion engine that are not borne by the drivers.
5.3.9 Are There Any International Treaties, Conventions, and/or Agreements
Influencing this Technology?
Certain international treaties, conventions, and agreements are more specific and
aggressive in prescribing technological solutions than others. For instance, the IPCC has set
target dates for stabilizing CO2 emissions for its signatory countries. Treaties prescribing
reductions in COX emissions have faced a hostile reception in the U.S. Congress and seem
unlikely to be available to influence adoption of new technologies in the near future.
5.3.10 What Is the Role of the NGOs Related to this Technology? Do They Differ in their
Stance on this Technology Effort?
An NGO is any nonprofit, voluntary citizens' group that is organized on a local,
national, or international level. Environmental NGOs over the years have become more
powerful in influencing public policies. Environmental NGOs such as Greenpeace and
consumer interest advocates like PERGs have become important watchdogs and
spokespersons for environmental and consumer well-being, interests not represented by a
price tag and therefore "nontradeable" on the market unlike other goods and services. Two
notable U.S. NGOs whose missions are particularly relevant to assessment of new technology
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compared to the internal combustion engine are Rocky Mountain Institute, a think-tank and
alternative technology promoter, and the Sierra Club and other anti-sprawl advocates.
5.4 Social Considerations in the Adoption and Penetration of the Internal
Combustion Engine
Social considerations relative to the baseline technology are illustrated through the
following subsections.
5.4.1 What Is the Relationship Between Population Demographics and Technology?
We found a data gap in our available information regarding the relationship between
population demographics and the baseline assessment. Useful information here would be the
percentage of the U.S. population that owns internal combustion engine automobiles and
trends in automobile ownership over the last 5 or 10 years. Alternately, it might be possible
to obtain market studies regarding car ownership done by automotive trade associations.
Note that in this baseline, the effects of population composition (socioeconomic makeup and
age structure) would be embedded in these statistics, whereas for a new technology, the
assessor might need to collect specific information about population composition and predict
its likely effect on technology adoption.
5.4.2 What Are the Individual Psychological Factors Influencing the Adoption Decision
of a New Idea or Product?
In social psychology, perceived risk for a product is based on an individual's
integrated evaluation of the financial, physical safety, and psychological demands (learning
and effort required to use the product). Although the internal combustion engine is not low-
cost, and its use carries risks to the driver's physical safety, it is so widely adopted in U.S.
culture that most individuals would consider it a low-risk product. New technologies that
modify or substitute for the internal combustion engine will face barriers to the extent that
typical users evaluate the new technology differently from the baseline in terms of financial
risk, physical safety, and psychological demands.
5.4.3 Will Interaction Between Individual Psychology and Group Psychology Help or
Hinder Use of the Technology by the Public? Are There Cultures and Norms that
Would Influence an Individual's Willingness to Adopt the Technology?
As mentioned earlier, technology adoption for the baseline technology is nearly 100
percent; therefore, it is assumed that the individual/group psychology interactions have not
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hindered the baseline technology in its current state. Likewise, the cultures and norms that
create incentives and disincentives for people to adopt a certain attitude are can be assumed
to have either created a positive attitude towards the internal combustion engine or at least
not hindered its adoption.
Some cultural factors and norms related to the internal combustion engine that will
impact future assessment of new technologies include the following:
• expectations of convenience in transportation fueling, personal mobility, and
repair services;
• marketing-driven preferences in automobiles (currently towards larger, heavier
sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks and minivans); and
• cultural perceptions surrounding automobiles (such as the association of powerful
internal combustion engines with "macho" characteristics).
5.4.5 Are There Environmental Justice and Equity Issues to Be Considered?
Environmental justice issues are implicated for several system elements of the
internal combustion engine that are described in this technology assessment: crude oil
extraction, gasoline and motor oil production, gasoline distribution, automobile use and
disposal/recycling. Crude oil production leads to degradation of lands historically used by
indigenous tribes and negatively affects their ability to preserve their culture, language, and
lifestyle (Rainforest Action Network, 2000). Specific data that would be helpful to the
baseline assessment would be the number of tribes displaced, number of languages lost, and
any metric reflecting level of violence associated with oil drilling.
Petroleum refining is associated with disproportionate exposure to air toxics in
communities living near refineries (National Oil Refinery Network, 2000). In this assessment
we'have a data gap regarding the quantities of toxics. Once this baseline information is
procured, a useful presentation of the information for assessment purposed might be a table
listing out tons of various toxics releases emitted by the petroleum refining sector. A second
data presentation element might consist of a map showing the concentration of oil refineries
overlaid on low-wealth areas of the United States.
Environmental justice issues relative to gasoline distribution are also a data gap in this
baseline assessment. The data that the full baseline would include relates to whether leaks
from underground gasoline storage tanks disproportionately affects low-income or nonwhite
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communities. Useful metrics might include the percentage of low-income or nonwhite area
drinking water supplies affected by gas tank leaks as compared to wealthier or majority-white
areas.
In the use stage of the internal combustion engine, environmental justice data relate to
whether exposure to health risks from automotive air pollution is disproportionately
distributed by race/ethnicity or income. For the baseline assessment, we had access to data
regarding ozone exposures as distributed by race and income. The internal combustion
engine is not the only source of ozone pollution, but it is a major contributor. A study of
ozone exposure in the South Coast Air Basin of California found that on average, residents of
low-income areas may be suffering higher ozone exposures than higher income area residents
(Korc, 1996). Other air pollutants from the internal combustion engine are listed in
Section 4. Data gaps in this assessment include whether exposures to these other pollutants
are also disproportionately distributed. An alternative metric regarding distribution of
diseases correlated with these pollutants might be found in the public health literature.
In the disposal stage of the internal combustion engine system as it relates to
environmental justice there is a data gap in the baseline assessment regarding whether
environmental or human health harms are disproportionately distributed from disposal of the
engine/fuel system/transmission, battery, and oil/fluids. Specific pollutants associated with
disposal are described in Section 3.0.
5.4.6 Are There Second-Generation Technology Impacts?
Second generation impacts refer to the long-term and cumulative impact of
technologies that have the potential to not only change individual lifestyles for the adopters
but also the social-economic composition. The baseline internal combustion engine
technology, for instance, has been strongly influenced by existing U.S. transportation patterns
with positive results such as increased personal mobility and increased choices in where
individuals are able to work, live, and recreate. The technology has also had negative long-
term impacts such as overconsumption of land (sprawl) and social patterns like urban
disinvestment. Such patterns can readily be imagined with other types of engines and a
supporting infrastructure (e.g., engines running on biofuel or natural gas). However other
types of engines with shorter distance ranges (electric, solar) would presumably lead to a less
spread out land use and therefore different social and land use patterns.
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5.5 Summary of Results
The major areas of information gathered from this section of the technology
assessment methodology fall into two categories:
• political/institutional/social considerations that affect likely adoption of any new
technology and
• considerations relating to the social desirability of the technology.
For the baseline assessment, we know that adoption of the technology is nearly 100 percent;
therefore, there is no need to assess potential barriers to adoption. However, we did identify
factors that promote widespread use of the internal combustion engine. These factors will
affect the adoption of any new technology that is developed to replace or modify the internal
combustion engine. Of all the factors identified, we identified those that seem the most
important. Criteria in choosing the most important ones were
• large impact in number of individuals/institutions affected and
• relates to major EPA policy goals.
Table 5-3 shows the most important results relating to factors that will affect any new
technology that is designed to replace or modify the internal combustion engine system. The
major results of this section relating to desirability of the internal combustion engine are
found in the area of environmental justice. Specifically, negative impacts of the internal
combustion engine system (as defined in Figure 3-1) are disproportionately borne by low-
income and nonwhite communities. Environmental justice is considered a major EPA policy
goal and is federally mandated pursuant to Executive Order 12898, Federal Actions to
Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations.
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Table 5-3. Major Results Relevant to Comparing Internal Combustion Engine to New
Technologies
Report Section Characteristic,
Number Property, or Attribute
Details of Results
5.1.2
5.1.5; 5.1.6;
5.2.1; 6.2.11
5.2.9
5.3.4
5.3.5
Scale/infrastructure
Stakeholders and
institutions with stake in
the internal combustion
engine
Financial institutions
Cultural factors
Environmental justice
Internal combustion engine requires large scope of
supportive infrastructure
Broad range of stakeholders invested in continued
dominance of internal combustion engines. Some NGO
stakeholders opposed to same.
Various subsidies available to engine production. Indirect
subsidies provided for infrastructure and in externalities
not borne by drivers of internal combustion engines.
Cultural expectations regarding transportation largely
shaped by characteristics of the internal combustion
engine
Raw materials production: impacts on indigenous tribes
(oil extraction); inequitable distribution of air toxics
exposure (gasoline refining); Use stage: inequitable
distribution of health impacts of ozone pollution.
5.6 References
Executive Order 12898. Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority
Populations and Low-income Populations. 1994.
. Accessed January 16,
2001.
Korc, Marcelo. 1996. "A Socioeconomic Assessment of Human Exposure to Ozone in the
South Coast Air Basin of California." Journal of the American Air & Waste
Management Association 46:547-557.
National Oil Refinery Network. 2000. .
Rainforest Action Network. 2000. Indigenous Communities at the Edge.
.
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Research Triangle Institute. August 2000. Methodology for Integrated Assessments of
Climate Change Mitigation Technologies. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, National Risk Management Research Laboratory. Research
Triangle Park, NC: Research Triangle Institute.
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SECTION 6
INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE BASELINE
ASSESSMENT—PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
6.1 Nature of Assessment Results
Technology assessment is an attempt to understand what factors influence whether a
new technology gets adopted and predict and understand what the effects of a technology will
be if it is implemented. While an assessment may yield a report as a product, the fact that the
assessment generates predictions with varying levels of uncertainty suggests a need for the
assessment to be an on-going process. Assessments are a process or way of thinking about
technology that allows the assessor to make predictions of effects rather than conclusions
about effects. The predictions may be improved (uncertainty reduced) by more in-depth
inquiry or by revelation of facts as technology development actually occurs.
The assessment results presented in this document cover a broad range of
technological, environmental, economic, and human effects that will, if evaluated, provide
insights to numerous issues in each area. Because this particular assessment includes a
baseline, some of the factors relevant when evaluating new technologies are not applicable to
the internal combustion engine, since it is already widely adopted and several effects are
well-documented. The results are a mix of qualitative and quantitative information. In most
cases, quantitative data was sought most extensively for high-priority effects. Qualitative
information is provided where quantitative information is unavailable for high-priority
effects. The assessment is meant to be an iterative approach, so additional data can be sought
based on the results of this assessment.
Sections 2 through 5 of this baseline technology assessment report provide data about
various characteristics, considerations, and attributes of the internal combustion engine. In
this section of the report we combine the information from the separate sections to create an
overall picture of the technology. Figure 6-1 illustrates the model set out in the Technology
Assessment Methodology for combining results from each section, comparing the findings,
and producing assessment results. In the case of the baseline assessment, some components
6-1
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1
Summarize Findings
• Results (barriers and opportunities)
• Likelihood of Outcome
• Need More Information or Red Flag
• Key Assumptions
• Notes
Further Research
Prioritize Research
Educate Public
1
Compare
Results
Consistency
Key Assumptions
Consistency
Critical to Success
Overall Adoption Rate
Assessment
Results
Figure 6-1. Summary of Examples from Document Sections on Technological,
Environment, Economic, and Political/Institutional/Social Considerations, How to
Compare Them, and When to Reassess or Conclude with Results
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were not used, because of the nature of the baseline. Specifically, likelihood of outcome is
known for the internal combustion engine, so we did not conduct uncertainty analysis. The
steps for future research, prioritization of research, and education of the public are likewise
not relevant to the baseline.
In the remainder of Section 6, we summarize assumptions and findings from Sections
2 through 5, discuss significant issues in conducting a baseline technology assessment, and
present conclusions.
6.2 Summary of Information from All Sections
Sections 2 through 5 of this baseline technology assessment report provide data about
various characteristics, considerations, and attributes of the internal combustion engine. In
this section of the report we combine the information from the separate sections to create an
overall picture of the technology. Figure 6-1 illustrates the model we followed in combining
the results from each section, comparing the findings, and producing assessment results.
6.2.7 Major Assumptions
In this baseline report several assumptions affect the resultant picture of the internal
combustion engine. Many of these assumptions are embedded in the technology scope
defined in the specifying the technology section and Figure 6-2. See Table 2-2 for
components excluded from internal combustion engine study boundaries. The result of the
assessment could be quite different if the initial assumptions covered an expanded scope. For
example, wheels/tires, battery production, and road building were not covered in this
assessment. Including wheels/tires, battery production, and road building in an assessment
could change the areas of high-priority data needs. Road building, for instance, is likely to
have a significant effect on biota and would thus elevate biota to a high-priority data need,
whereas under the current scope, biota seemed unlikely to be significantly affected by the
baseline technology.
Table 6-1 shows the major assumptions that we used when determining the economic,
environmental, and social impacts.
Some technology characteristics were not precisely defined in this assessment due to
time frame and data limitations. For instance, a detailed description of the internal
combustion engine was not available. However, materials used in a typical engine was an
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Steel
Iron
Aluminum
Engine block
Fuel system
Transmission
Radiator
Exhaust system
Fuel spills
Environmental emissions
Oil/fluid changes
- Engine
- Fuel system
- Transmission
— Battery
— Oil/fluid disposal
Figure 6-2. Summary Illustration of Internal Combustion Engine Study Scope
appropriate replacement for a detailed engine description. Another technology characteristic
that was not addressed in this assessment dealt with the typical disposal and recycling
methods for internal combustion engines. In a future assessment, defining disposal more
precisely in the section on specifying the technology could lead to better environmental or
economic data collection about emissions and costs associated with disposal.
Experts had to make additional assumptions as they completed sections assessing the
environment, economics, and political/social/institutional characteristics of the internal
combustion engine. Those assumptions are listed in Tables 6-2,6-3, and 6-4 in the key
assumptions column.
6.2.2 Summary of Major Findings
Tables 6-2,6-3, and 6-4 summarize the significant results from each section.
Although all impacts are important, here we highlight the findings of potential major
significance. Here, we include all information regarding data needs that were ranked "high
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Table 6-1. Major Assumptions Applied in Defining the Baseline Technology
Internal Combustion Engine
Technology Characteristic
Major Assumption
Boundary of the technology
Adoption
Alternatives to this technology
Geographic boundaries to
assessment
Cost to produce, operate,
maintain
Engine and transmission only. Raw materials, manufacture, use,
disposal; auxiliary components (gasoline, motor oil production,
distribution, use, disposal) (see Figure 6-2)
Nearly 100 percent adoption
Other combustion technologies or other transportation technologies.
North America for engine production; United States for gasoline and
motor oil production; worldwide for crude oil extraction; United States
for disposal/recycling; United States for use stage
Expenditures on Transportation ($1996)
Vehicles
Transportation Services
Ql 1992
Ql 1995
Q12000
$55 billion
$62 billion
$85 billion
$41 billion
$50 billion
$62 billion
(For additional cost information, see Table 6-2)
Resource needs Average materials used in typical engine: iron (100kg), steel (35 kg),
aluminum (40 kg).
Associated safety 1999 fatality rate = 1.6 per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and
injury rate of 121 per 100 million VMT
Fatality rate = 15.26 per 100,000 population
priority" in the individual sections, as well as some that were originally ranked "medium
priority," but when the data gathering was conducted to verify that ranking, it was discovered
that the characteristic or property had greater impact than initially assumed. As described in
the preceding sections, data needs were prioritized using expert judgment regarding the likely
magnitude and severity of impact of the technology characteristic on the technology. See
Tables 3-1,4-1, and 5-1 for review of the data needs priorities.
In applying the technology assessment methodology to a new technology, the user
would summarize information regarding the likelihood of outcome for the major findings
summarized in Tables 6-2 through 6-4. This would allow selective focus on the more likely
outcomes, or the marking of those questionable results where an uncertainty analysis might
6-5
-------
Table 6-2. Economic Data Collection Results
Data Needs
Data Results
Need More Information
(M) or Red Flag (R)
Key Assumptions on
which Conclusion is
Based
Engines and Drive Trains—Supply
How many plants they
have, including locations
How they are
manufactured: what are
resource requirements, such
as raw materials, labor,
electricity, capital assets
What are start-up costs for
setting up a new plant
25 engine plants, including 9 in Michigan, 5 in
Ohio, 3 in Ontario
17 transmission plants, including 6 in Michigan,
5 in Ohio
19 castings plants, including 4 in Michigan, 4
in Ohio, 4 in Ontario, 3 in Indiana
Parts, exhaust, cooling systems locations omitted
Prod. Value
Purch. Mat.
Employees
Capital Inv.
Energy Use
Autos
$385 B*
$242 B
1.0 mil.
$14.6B
26.7B kWh
Power Trains
$67 B
$41 B
250 K
$4. IB
9.1BkWh
30 percent of material cost for autos is power train,
comprising 22 percent of value of auto production;
of power train materials, 40 percent of cost is iron
and steel, 10 percent is nonferrous (mostly
aluminum)
Some recent investments:
• Combined engine and assembly plant—$400
million
• Large engine plant—$ 1B
• Combined engine and transmission plant—$200
million
(M) This information may
not be representative of all
plants in the industry
Plants have little or no
alternate use if internal
combustion engines
replaced
High startup costs could
increase market power
(continued)
-------
Table 6-2. Economic Data Collection Results (continued)
Data Needs
Data Results
Need More Information
(M) or Red Flag (R)
Key Assumptions on
which Conclusion is
Based
Economy-wide effects: is
this an important industry
to the economy—based on
sales and employment
Are there substantial
imports/exports associated
with inputs
Total value: S385B 10 percent of all manufacturing
Employment: 1 million 6 percent of all
manufacturing
Capital spending: $26.7 billion
Power trains = 1.7 percent of U.S. manufacturing
value
Not for automobiles and power trains. In gasoline
production, more than half of petroleum is imported
Large size of industry
increases risk to U.S.
economy of technology
shift
Scope defined to include
all of North America
Engines and Power Trains—Demand
Business: which
companies buy engines
What are the advantages of
internal combustion
engines—characteristics of
engines
Consumers: do consumers
buy engines directly or
indirectly
What is the demand for
automobiles, engines,
transportation
New car engines and most replacements are supplied
by the automakers themselves
Safe, reliable, well-established supply, huge
investment in human capital for production,
maintenance
Engines, transmissions—bought indirectly by
mechanics as replacements. Parts, including exhaust
systems, filters, are bought by consumers and
mechanics
Total vehicle miles: 2.1 trillion
Percent of miles commuting: 31 %
Driving patterns:
Percent usually driving alone: 79.6%
Percent usually carpool: 11.1%
Percent public transit: 5.1%
Percent others: 4.2%
(M) Some of transportation
services spending is for
freight and does not involve
internal combustion
vehicles. This portion
should be excluded from
the spending data
(continued)
-------
Table 6-2. Economic Data Collection Results (continued)
Data Needs
Data Results
Key Assumptions on
Need More Information which Conclusion is
(M) or Red Flag (R) Based
Expenditures on Transportation 1996 dollars
Information about car
purchases in U.S.
Ql 1992
Ql 1995
Ql 2000
Sales
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Ave
Vehicles
55 B
62 B
85B
North
American Car
7.0
7.1
6.9
6.8
7.0
6.9
7.0
Transportation
Services
41 B
SOB
62 B
Import
Car Truck
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.8
2.1
1.6
6.1
6.6
6.9
7.4
8.2
8.4
7.3
Of trucks, 91 percent made in North America, 8
percent in JP for 1999 and 2000
Sales increasing 3 percent per year vs population
increase 1 percent per year
(continued)
-------
Table 6-2. Economic Data Collection Results (continued)
Data Needs
Data Results
Need More Information
(M) or Red Flag (R)
Key Assumptions on
which Conclusion is
Based
Price elasticity of demand
for transportation
Transportation:
Motor vehicles
Petroleum refining
-0.1
-0.5
(R) This may be the most
critical economic data in
the assessment
Gasoline
Who they are, including
sales and employment
What they produce—
gasoline, other products,
by-products from refinery
process
Percent of imports
244 est. owned by 123 companies
inc. TX (49), CA ( 31), LA (25), PA (17), IL (13).
65K employees
$158B total value; $30B value added, $128B
materials value
Gasoline—$77B or 49 percent; jet fuel—$14B (9
percent); other lights—$30B (19 percent); heavy
fuels, asphalt, and grease—$8B (5 percent);
liquefied gas—$8B (5 percent); other—$14B
(13 percent)
50.1 percent of crude petroleum—$48B in 1997
-------
Table 6-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection
Data Needs
Data Results
Need More Information
(M) or Red Flag (R)
Key Assumptions on
which Conclusion is
Based
ON
»—*
o
Water
Surface Waters:
Drinking water
quality/volume, Other
designated uses
(quality/volume), Sediment
contamination.
• Water consumption
volumes for industrial
processes related to
internal combustion
engines"
• Surface water discharge
volumes and range of
contaminant
concentrations
Producing 1kg of gasoline consumes 0.14 liters of
water (Life Cycle Inventory of Steel)
M
Water consumption volumes for raw material
production of iron, engine production, and industries
associated with automobile use were not found.
See Figures 6-3 and 6-4
Red flag for dissolved
solids and suspended
solids
For industry information
related to engine
production, we assume
that most engines/engine
parts are made of iron,
steel or aluminum
For industry information
related to engine
production, we assume
that most engines/engine
parts are made of iron,
steel or aluminum
Emissions from metals
production, including steel
and aluminum, focuses on
virgin materials rather
than recycled material
(continued)
-------
Table 6-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Needs
Data Results
Need More Information
(M) or Red Flag (R)
Key Assumptions on
which Conclusion is
Based
Surface water runoff
• Estimates of storm water
runoff contamination
from vehicle gas and
engine oil leaks, or other
fluids from an
automobile's disposal/
recycle stage.
The USGS has a website called National Highway
Runoff Water Quality Data and Methodology
Synthesis, which contains an extensive bibliography
of highway runoff projects by state. However, the
website does not appear to contain any national or
regional estimates that would be useful to determine
surface water runoff at the national level
(USGS, 2001)
M
Air
• Air emissions inventory See Figures 6-5 and 6-6
for industrial processes
related to internal
combustion engines
Red flag for carbon
monoxide, fossil carbon
dioxide, sulfur oxides,
nitrogen oxides, and
particulates
For industry information
related to engine
production we assume that
most engines/engine parts
are made of iron, steel or
aluminum
Emissions from metals
production, including steel
and aluminum, focuses on
virgin materials rather
than recycled material
(continued)
-------
Table 6-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Needs
Data Results
Need More Information
(M) or Red Flag (R)
Key Assumptions on
which Conclusion is
Based
Iron production for engine parts generates air
emissions, which result from different production
processes. The processes include mold and core
production, the melting process, and casting, cooling
and finishing. In the stage of mold and core
production, the major pollutants are particulates,
volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and carbon
monoxides. The melting process emits fumes,
organic compounds (including VOCs), carbon
monoxides, sulfur oxides as well as particulates and
dust, which includes calcium oxides, iron oxides,
magnesium oxides, manganese oxides, silicon
dioxides, zinc oxides, lead, and cadmium. As for
the process of pouring, casting, cooling and
finishing, particulates are the primary pollutants
(AWMA, 1992).
Need more quantitative
information about air
emissions from iron
production
(continued)
-------
Table 6-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
Data Needs
Data Results
Need More Information
(M) or Red Flag (R)
Key Assumptions on
which Conclusion is
Based
Air emissions inventory
for mobile sources
Annual Emissions and Fuel Consumption for an
"Average" Passenger Car"
Pollutant
Problem
Hydrocarbons
urban ozone
(smog) and air
toxics
Carbon
monoxide
poisonous gas
Nitrogen oxides
urban ozone
(smog) and acid
rain
Carbon dioxide
global warming
Gasoline
imported oil
Amount11
2.9
grams/mile
22
grams/mile
1.5
grams/mile
0.8
pound/mile
0.04
gallon/mile
Pollution or
Fuel
Miles1 Consumption11
12,500 SOlbsofHC
12,500 6061bsofCO
12.500 411bsofNOx
12,500 1 0,000 Ibs of
C02
12,500 550 gallons
gasoline
(continued)
-------
Table 6-3. Results of Environmental Data Collection (continued)
° These values are averages. Individual vehicles may travel more or fewer miles and may emit more or less pollution per mile than indicated
here. Emission factors and pollution/fuel consumption totals may differ slightly from original sources due to rounding.
b The emission factors used here come from standard EPA emission models. They assume an "average," properly maintained car or truck on the
road in 1997, operating on typical gasoline on a summer day (72 to 96°F). Emissions may be higher in very hot or very cold weather.
c Average annual mileage source: EPA emissions model MOBILES.
d Fuel consumption is based on average in-use passenger car fuel economy of 22.5 miles per gallon and average in-use light truck fuel economy
of 15.3 miles per gallon.
Sources: Air and Waste Management Association (AWMA). 1992. Air Pollution Engineering Manual, Anthony J. Buonicore, and Wayne T.
Davis, eds. New York: AWMA.
U.S. Geological Survey and the Federal Highway Administration. 2001. "National Highway Runoff Water Quality Data and
Methodology Synthesis." .
o\
-------
Table 6-4. Results from Political/Institutional/Social Considerations Data Collection
Characteristic Property or
Attribute
Data Results
Need More
Information (M)
or Red Flag (R)
Key Assumptions
Scale/infrastructure
Stakeholders and institutions
with stake in the internal
combustion engine
Financial institutions
Cultural factors
Environmental justice
Internal combustion engine requires large scope of
supportive infrastructure.
Broad range of stakeholders invested in continued
dominance of internal combustion engines. Some
NGO stakeholders opposed to same.
Various subsidies available to engine production.
Indirect subsidies provided for infrastructure and in
externalities not borne by drivers of internal
combustion engines.
Cultural expectations regarding transportation largely
shaped by characteristics of the internal combustion
engine.
Raw materials production: impacts on indigenous
tribes (oil extraction); inequitable distribution of air
toxics exposure (gasoline refining); Use stage:
inequitable distribution of health impacts of ozone
pollution.
M
Substitute technologies will
use similar infrastructure.
-------
be needed. In the case of the baseline technology, we are not predicting future outcomes;
therefore, this column is not included in the summary.
6.2.2.1 Economic Results
The baseline economic data collection identified information regarding demand for
the technology and supply of the technology. On the demand side, data suggest that
commuting and local nonwork travel have very inelastic demands (i.e., they are not
particularly price sensitive, especially in the short and medium runs). Demand for leisure
travel may be more responsive to price changes.
On the supply side, the economic data show that cars represent 10 percent of all
manufacturing in the United States by value, and 6 percent by employment. Of those values,
the power train represents 22 percent of the value of the automobile. Cars are found to be the
dominant form of personal transportation in the country. Thus, any dramatic shifts in the
technology powering personal transportation has the potential to have major effects on the
U.S. economy. However, many of the companies who currently product automobiles are also
investing in alternatives to the internal combustion engine to be prepared for shifts if they
come.
Table 6-2 summarizes the major economic data that we found.
6.2.2.2 Environmental Results
The environmental assessment of the baseline technology highlights that the major
areas of impact are
• air emissions from steel and aluminum production (raw materials for the internal .
combustion engine),
• surface water discharge for raw materials production, and
• air emissions from the use stage of the technology.
Data gaps, which may themselves include areas of high impact, include
• water used for raw materials production and
• air emissions from iron production.
6-16
-------
In comparing a new technology to the internal combustion engine, the area the new
technology is likely to focus is on mitigating the environmental impacts of these high-priority
areas. In evaluating the new technology, the assessor may find that it has other
environmental impacts. The assessor will then have to evaluate the tradeoffs between the
impacts of the internal combustion engine and the impacts of the new technology. Table 6-2
summarizes the details of the findings.
Figures 6-3 through 6-7 summarize additional environmental data related to internal
combustion engines.
Hydocoborv
Fluor tete
Db*orv«dSoUoi
DbiorvadCkgcrta
Db»otv€dCNortn»
Detergent
COO
Ovorritm
CMoridB-ton
CHortd*
Cdcktnton
Cddum
Boron
BCD
Add
3
:ZD
!*••
M^BiMMM*p>^ii
I
D Aluminum
B Gasoline
• Steel
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1C
Pounds
Figure 6-3. Waterborne Emissions from Industries Related to Internal Combustion
Engines I
6-17
-------
Zinc
wide Monomer
SJhitcAdd
SiJfir
SJfldes
Sockm
PhCM E*KftB
Phenol
OmvOgcrici
MtTOflBn
Nltrtfes
Nkkel
M Ota ton
Mercury
Mcngmne
Mc^eskmton
Lecd
»an
3
=131
=3
=J
1
n Gasoline
• Steel
10
12
14
Pounds
Figure 6-4. Waterborne Emissions from Industries Related to Internal Combustion
Engines II
6.2.2.3 Social/Political/Institutional Results
Data collection for this section indicates a number of major factors that describe the
way the internal combustion engine is entrenched in U.S. society, including a large scope of
existing infrastructure, strong stakeholder positions, indirect subsidies for the technology, and
cultural expectations of transportation that largely are shaped by the internal combustion
engine. This section also highlights a major finding about the desirability of the technology,
in that the benefits and burdens are not equally distributed, and the burdens fall on
populations identified as being of concern under national policies to promote environmental
justice. Table 6-4 summarizes the details of the findings.
6-18
-------
5000
10000
15000
Pounds
20000
25000
30000
Figure 6-5. Atmospheric Emissions from Industries Related to Internal Combustion
Engines I
6.2.3 Comparison and Interelationship of Findings
Comparing the findings and the key assumptions of the economic, environment, and
social issues did not reveal major conflicts that needed to be addressed. There was
significantly less overlap between sections than initially anticipated. However, three issues
bear further discussion:
• Environmental Justice. The distributional aspects of environmental impacts were
not addressed in the environmental section; therefore, the section classifies as low
priority data regarding which regions are in nonattainment with Clean Air Act
requirements for ambient ozone and nitrogen oxides pollution. The
social/political/institutional section, however, identified data suggesting
disproportionate health impacts from ozone. Upon further consideration, we
6-19
-------
SJfulcAdd
sjfucwas
Seteriun
Rodcxudkb
Phenob
RFC
N-Nltra odmrtnlartr*
NttcuCUA
NnrogBnQdda
Nick*
Match
Mwoly
Lacd
Keruem
50
100
150
200
250
Pounds
Figure 6-6. Atmospheric Emissions from Industries Related to Internal Combustion
Engines II
decided that ozone nonattainment areas were not defined at a fine enough level of
resolution to be a useful tool in identifying additional environmental justice
concerns.
Raw Materials. While environmental impacts of iron, steel, and aluminum are
explored in detail in emissions data, the economic impacts of possible change in
demand for these materials are not. This arises because the economics section of
the assessment assumes that if the internal combustion engine were to be
completely replaced by other technology, other markets will absorb the raw
materials. Thus, that replacement of the internal combustion engine would not
itself create a long-term impact to the U.S. iron, steel, and aluminum industries.
However, if a technology assessor were to compare a new technology to the
baseline, she or he would want to compare environmental emissions generated by
6-20
-------
Steel
Gasoline
Aluminum
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Pounds
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Figure 6-7. Solid Waste from Industries Related to Internal Combustion Engines I
raw materials of the new technology to the environmental emissions attributable
to the raw materials of the internal combustion engine.
• Geographic Boundaries. The primary focus of our data gathering and evaluation
is the United States. However, in a two areas, the geographic boundaries were
expanded because of the international nature of the industry. Therefore, we
identified production facilities in all of North America for the economics section
and environmental justice concerns related to oil extraction in various overseas
locations. Nevertheless, the environmental emissions data related to oil extraction
and engine production is based on U.S. emissions.
6.3 Significant Issues in Conducting a Baseline Technology Assessment
In the process of conducting this assessment, we observed two significant issues in
applying the technology assessment methodology to the baseline technology case.
6-21
-------
• The technology assessment methodology asks users to predict the potential market
penetration of a new technology and then to assess likely economic,
environmental, and social results of this level of adoption of the technology.
Prediction of technology adoption is therefore an important step in the
methodology, but in the baseline this step is not demonstrated, because we have
knowledge of the actual level of adoption. Thus, an assessment of a new
technology would be expected to focus less intensively on collecting data and
more intensively on attempting to assess the results resulting from technology
adoption.
• For the baseline technology case, we were able to draw on efforts underway to
develop a full-scale environmental life-cycle assessment that will characterize a
typical passenger automobile. This literature was particularly helpful in assisting
us in developing the scope for our assessment. Future assessments of new
technologies are less likely to have as much life-cycle assessment data to draw on.
6.4 Conclusions Regarding the Process of Conducting the Technology Assessment
As a demonstration of the technology assessment methodology, this baseline
assessment provided some insight into effective use of the methodology. Our observations
include the following:
• To effectively apply the methodology, it was crucial that we had experts in
economics, environmental science, and the social/political/institutional
disciplines. Use of subject area experts promoted efficiency because each person
was familiar with standard data sources in his or her field (such as life-cycle
assessment data and U.S. Census economic data) that speeded data prioritization
and data gathering. In addition, subject area experts are more able to identify data
needs that are likely to be relevant in each subject area.
• It is helpful to include on the assessment team individuals who are familiar with
the technology in question. This facilitates discussion of the assessment scope
and assists the remainder of the team in understanding aspects of the technology.
• The technology assessment is an iterative process. Therefore, regular meetings
and communications between subject area experts were necessary to ensure that
all were aware of the others' data sources, direction of their assessments, and
preliminary results. This was particularly important in writing Section 2. In that
case, we drafted the section and then revised it based on initial data collection
efforts for Sections 3,4, and 5.
6-22
-------
• We assigned one staff member to provide general support for all the subject area
experts. This arrangement facilitated communication between the sections and
ensured that where data sources were relevant to more than one section, the
information was promptly shared.
• In future assessments of new technologies that substitute for the internal
combustion engine, it will be important to maintain consistent scope and
boundaries between the technologies being evaluated and the baseline technology.
For comparative assessments, users want to ensure that they are comparing
equivalent functional units of technology or equivalent services provided.
6.5 References
Air and Waste Management Association (AWMA). 1992. Air Pollution Engineering
Manual, Anthony J. Buonicore, and Wayne T. Davis, eds. New York: AWMA.
U.S. Geological Survey and the Federal Highway Administration. 2001. "National Highway
Runoff Water Quality Data and Methodology Synthesis."
------- |