AC 78-02
Technical Support Report for Regulatory Action
U.S. Aircraft Fleet Projection and
Engine Inventory to Year 2000
by
Richard W. Hunt
February 1978
NOTICE
Technical support reports for regulatory action do not necessarily
represent the final EPA decision on regulatory issues. They are intended
to present a technical analysis of an issue and recommendations resulting
from the assumptions and constraints of that analysis. Agency policy
considerations or data received subsequent to the date of release of
this report may alter the recommendations reached. Readers are cautioned
to seek the latest analysis from EPA before using the information contained
herein.
Standards Development and Support Branch
Emission Control Technology Division
Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control
Office of Air and Waste Management
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
-------
Table of Contents
Introduction . 1
Derivation of the Projection 1
Summary of the Results 5
References 6
Table I, Air Carrier Fleet . 7
Table II, Fleet Table-15 Year Attrition 8
Table III, Fleet Table-20 Year Attrition 14
Table IV, Variables and Assumptions Employed
in the FAA Forecast 20
Table V, Judgmental Assumptions Employed
in the EPA Projection 21
Table VI, Arbitrary Assumptions Employed
in;the EPA projection 22
Table VII, Engine Inventory (15 year attrition rate) 23
Table VIII, Engine Inventory (20 year attrition rate) 24
Table IX, Engine Inventory - No 1984
Standard (15 year attrition rate) 25
Table X, Engine Inventory - No 1984
Standard (20 year attrition rate) 26
-i-
-------
-1-
INTRODUCTION
This report provides a forecast of the number of aircraft gas
turbine engines x-rtiich must comply with the proposed revisions to the EPA
emissions standards. In providing this, it also supplies an aircraft
forecast (useful if engines are changed on a given airframe) and a
general engine forecast (useful if other revisions are proposed). This
information may be used directly to obtain estimates of the total
impact of various standards and implementation dates and, more importantly,
to obtain estimates of the total cost and cost effectiveness of the
standards. In view of the diverse uncertainties in forecasting, the
reader is cautioned to treat this forecast as only a representative
scenario whose accuracy is limited by the quality of the assumptions and
judgments made in its derivation.
Derivation of the Projection
The EPA projection begins with a fleet projection provided by the
FAA, Office of Aviation Policy (Reference 1). This unpublished projection
(Table I) is an expansion in both time and detail of that provided in
Reference 2. This projection gives the net fleet in five year increments
broken down by categories of aircraft (e.g., 3-engine wide-body). This
projection is created by econometric forecasting techniques derived from
established relations between various parameters of economic activity
and air carrier demand. The resulting demand for air service (in terms
of passenger-miles) is converted to a fleet mix of aircraft through
individual forecasts for each carrier with due consideration for the
service patterns, frequencies of service, and profitability of the
carriers. The shortcomings of this forecast for EPA use are fourfold.
First, the forecast does not break do\m the categories (e.g., two-engine
narrow-body) into specific aircraft types (e.g., DC-9). Second, the
fleet is not presented in terms of categories defined by short, medium,
or long haul. These limitations prevent a knowledge of the engine types
in use in the fleet. Third, the forecast is in terms of the net only
and there is no projection of the production and attrition which is
necessary to separate the engines according to the standard complied
with. Fourth, the data are presented in five year increments only, thus
requiring interpolation.
The steps required to convert the FAA forecast into a useful
projection for EPA purposes are discussed below.
(1) Interpolation to Provide Annual Fleet Numbers
For each category, the compounded annual rate of growth between
each five year period is found and applied annually.to the intervening
years. This procedure is abandoned, however, during the period of
start-up for a new category as, for instance, in the two-.eng.ine wide-
body category. In this situation, it is more representative to ascribe
a linear growth between the start-up date and the first FAA fleet
projection. The annual net fleet size by category is presented in line
group 3 of the fleet tables (Tables II and III).
-------
(2) Attrition Rate
Attrition rate is difficult to project and in reality it would
depend upon the profitability of the aircraft type in question, avail-
ability of replacement aircraft, environmental regulations, traffic
demand, depreciation rate, maintenance experience, and the like. Such
an analysis is well beyond the scope, of this report and probably also
beyond analysis anyway.
A crude approximation, but one which is nonetheless based upon one
of the most influential effects, is to relate the attrition rate to the
depreciation. It is common practice among U.S. airlines to write off
an aircraft for tax purposes in 14 years. Thus, once the aircraft is
written off, there are no more tax incentives available and the owner is
more likely to replace it. Furthermore, tax laws strongly encourage
this depreciation rate to be realistic or representative of the value of
the aircraft. Thus, 15 years might be construed as a reasonable aircraft
lifetime in the U.S. fleet.
It might further be argued that the financial climate of the
airlines combined with the high price of replacement aircraft weighs
against the rapid retirement of in-use aircraft. A possible alternative
to the 15 year useful life is a 20 year useful life. A- longer figure.
might be argued-, Bu-t after 20 years there, would typically, be 60,.000-
70,000 hours on the airframe and maintenance costs would be climbing
dramatically.
In summary, then, two attrition rates are considered, 15 years and
20 years, and are assumed to apply to all aircraft categories and types
with one exception. The category of 4-engine narrow-body aircraft
consists of the B707 family (including the B720) and the DC-8 family.
For the time frame of interest neither of these aircraft will be produced
for the U.S. fleet. Hence, the FAA forecast for this category and the
interpolation procedure discussed in (1) define uniquely the attrition
rate. This is the rate used for this category and roughly approximates
a 20 year life per aircraft.
The attrition of each category is presented in line group 2 of the
fleet tables, which include two scenarios, the 15 year lifetime (Table
II) and the 20 year lifetime (Table III).
(3) Production Rate
The annual production in each category is found simply by the
addition of that year's attrition and the net increase of. that category
in the fleet between the year in question and the next, and is presented
in line group 1 of the fleet tables.
(4) Assignment of Fleet by Standards Complied With
The composition of the fleet by the standards with which it complies
will change from year to year as older aircraft are phased out and newer
-------
-3-
ones, meeting different standards, are added. Both the attrition line
and the production line are subdivided according to the standard met.
The standards to be met are those which will be proposed as revisions to
the existing standards first promulgated in 1973, specifically,
a. 1981, HC and CO standards for newly manufactured engines,
b. 1984, NOx standard for newly manufactured engines in addition
to those of (a),
c. 1985, HC and CO standards for in-use engines.
The net-in-fleet line is likewise subdivided according to the
standard met (line group 3), giving for each year the summation of all
the production minus all the attrition of aircraft in that category
meeting each standard. A separate division for the retrofit rule (c) is
not provided as the numbers can readily be taken from the pre-standards
line for the year in question.
(5) Assignment of Fleet by Aircraft and Engine Type
At this stage, the projection supplies information on the numbers
of aircraft by category (e.g., 4 engine wide body) and by standard met
(e.g.;,.1981 newly.manufactured engines). As yet, though, the specific
aircraft types and more importantly the specific engines are not known.
Finding this requires a number of assumptions, some based upon informed
judgment, others made arbitrarily.
Certain assumptions bearing upon the issue were made in the FAA's
original forecastand are presented in Table IV. Since the FAA forecast
was made, however, the airlines and the airframe manufacturers have
further refined their thoughts on the next generation of aircraft. As
a consequence, an independent assessment was made. That resulted in the
assumptions set forth in Table V. Some comment is necessary.
(a) Certain types of aircraft are not included (e.g., DC-10-40)
because their contribution insofar as engine mix is concerned
is expected to be small. The effect of engine changes among
aircraft is to a large degree self conpensating anyway.
(b) The totally new aircraft which will appear are the Twin DC-10,
the L1011-600, and the 2 and 3 engined versions of the B7S7
(essentially a narrow-body aircraft). The DC-X, B7X7, B7N7,'
and the A200 will not appear as the market would become excessively
fragmented.
(c) Totally new aircraft will be brought into production in 1984.
This date is unlikely to be correct precisely, but is expected
to adequately reflect the situation.
-------
-4-
(d) The remaining new aircraft will be growth or modified versions
of existing types specifically the L1011-500, DC-9-S80, and
the B737-200. Excessive fragmentation will prevent any more
significant entries.
(e) The growth or modified aircraft will be brought into production
in 1981. This is again a rough approximation to the real
timetable.
(f) The introduction of the B7S7 will eliminate the B727 from
production as they are basically competing aircraft.
Finally, there must be a number of arbitrary assumptions made, the
issues at stake not being amenable to judgment at this time. These are
presented in Table VI. In brief, these assumptions relate to the
engines being utilized by the various aircraft types and to the distribution
of types within each class. The major points are:
(a) Assignment of specific engines to specific airframes in most
cases (e.g., JT9D with the B747).
This reflects the general situation that a single engine
dominates in a given aircraft type. The error is to a degree
self compensating.- The major exception to this philosophy is
the B7S7 wherei-n it- was- assumed that all three likely candidates
would be used; this reflects the high degree of uncertainty
involved; -
(b) Before 1981, the L1011 and DC-10 families are represented
exclusively by the L1011-100 and DC-10-10.
This simply approximates for convenience the actual case
in which these aircraft dominates the pre-standards segment of
that category.
(c) Retrofit of the 4-engine narrow-body aircraft with the CFM56
and the JT8D-209 equally.
This reflects the great uncertainty at this time. It is
quite possible that both will indeed be used.
(d) Equal numbers of competing aircraft within each category.
It is not possible to weigh at this point the competitive
advantages of each type over the others and the consequent
numerical balance of each. Equal numbers of competing types
within each category are therefore assumed as representing a
reasonable balance.
-------
-5-
Summary of the Results
It is now possible to use Table II or III to forecast the number of
engines that must comply with each standard. The assumptions of Tables
V and VI applied to Table II or III (these assumptions have been repeated
on Tables II and III as footnotes for convenience) provide the necessary
conversion from aircraft category to engine inventory. The 1981 newly
manufactured engine totals can be taken from the middle of line group 3
in the Tables for the year 1984 (i.e., at the completion of the production
run of engines subjected to the 1981 standards). The 1985 Retrofit
totals are found in the first of line group 3 for the year 1985. The
exception to this is the 4-engine narrow-body category, wherein the
retrofit involves the use of newly manufactured engines and is therefore
found in the second and third rows of line group 3 (Table II (c) or III
(c)).
The 1984 newly manufactured engine standards present a more difficult
situation for the period of compliance and hence the number of engines
involved is indefinite. For the purposes of estimating cost effectiveness,
it is postulated that a reasonable number of engines to consider is that
over which the R&D, certification, and initial tooling costs (i.e., the
fixed costs) would be amortized. Beyond this number, the cost would be
reduced and the cost effectiveness increased unless, of course, those
engine types are replaced by newly certificated engines for which the
fixed costs would then be repeated. It is assumed here that the write-
off period of the fixed costs constitutes 15 years of production (i.e.,
nearly to the end of the century). It may be argued that this is an
unduly long period inasmuch as most of the engines in question were
originally configured in the 1960's. Nonetheless, the high cost of
development, the refinement of technology, and the timing of new technology
(e.g., the NASA Energy Efficient Engine Program) suggests that the
production of present engines and their derivatives will be assured for
a long time. Thus, 15 years will be assumed.
Tables VII and VIII present the projection of the engine inventory
for the two assumed attrition rates (15 and 20 years). These are only
the engines that are "on the wing". In addition, there will be an
inventory of spares amounting to 15-20% of those in actual use.
In view of the questions regarding the utility of the proposed NOx
standard, it is also worthwhile to investigate the effect of eliminating
the NOx (1984) standard. This elimination results in the 1981 standard
being indefinite in duration and thus the 15 year amortization of fixed
costs would apply to it. Table IX and X show the engine inventory in
this case, again for "the two assumed attrition rates.
Engine inventories of other postulated standards can be derived by
simple modification of Tables II and III. The total annual production,
attrition, and net-in-fleet figures are the same, however, different
dates for implementation would require adjustments to the subdivisions
(groupings by standards met). This is readily done once the specifics
of the proposed standards are known.
-------
-6-
References
1. "Air Carrier Fleet", Unpublished forecast, FAA, 1977.
2. "FAA Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1978-1989", FAA-AVP-77-32,
September, 1977.
-------
7
Table I
AIR CARRIER FLEET
1977
(as of January 1)
1980 1985 1990
2000
Wide Body Jet
4 Engine
3 Engine
2 Engine
Standard Jet
4 Engine
3 Engine
2 Engine
Turbo Pro£
4 Engine
2 Engine
Piston
4 Engine
1 & 2 Engine
106
202
0
487
823
536
69
178
37
63
138
232
32
437
923
631
51
160
18
45
241
463
135
202
913
825
31
130
0
29
302
704
259
179
832
831
18
77
0 .
18
552
1019
569
40
600
950
10
25
0
0
Total
2501
2667
2969
3220
3765
-------
Table II - (a)
FLEET TABLE - 15 Year Attrition
Category: 2 Engine Narrow Body
Production
Pre-Standarc
1981 NME
158 4 NME
Attrition
Pre-Standarc
1581 NME
3.984 NME
'77
30
.
iXot in FleeQ'536
|pre-Standarq536
I i
1931 NME
1984 NME
'78
i
32
566
'566
'79
33
598
598
'^80
35
0
0
631
631
.
'81
0
85
49
666
666
0
.'.82
88
-
702
617
85
.183
90
0
-
741
568
173
'84
^nT^r^
0
92
-
782
519
263
0
'V
50
-
825
470
92
! Q £
^QO
50
8?, 6
421
142
-187,
50
.
8?, 7
372
192
I Q Q
50
8?. 8
323
242
ya.
:
51
-
8? 9
274
292
'9Q
60
49
831
225
343
'91
57
46
842
176
403
'92
42
30
853
130
'93
44
32
865
100
i
46 Oj 502
'94
45
33
877
68
546
'95
46
35
0
889
35
591
'96
98
0
85
900
0
263
637
'97
LOO
88
913
178
735
'98
102
90
0
925
90
835
'9?
; lOf
0
92
937
0
937
'00
9,5.0
950
* As of January 1.
Before 1981: JT8D-17
1981 - 1983: JT8D-209, CFM56
1984 and after: JT8D-209, CFM56
CF6-32/ JT1QD., RB211-535
(1)
(2)
i
oo
i
(3)
-------
Table II (b)
FLEET TABLE - 15 Year Attrition
Category: 3 Engine Narrow Body
Year
Production
Pre-Star.dard
i
1931 NME
198-'+ NME
i
.Attrition
i
If'rc-Standarc
i , - -
i'JS.l N>iE
Ll?84 NME
r*:-T&*ii»ra*-»f*tt*K2*saocrcrji*'
Net in Flp.r.t
'77
32
.JtUZUJM
-
0
-------
Table II - (c)
FLEET TABLE - 15 Year Attrition
A.Jngi*lg...N.g.rrow Body
Year
'Produce ion
Pre-Standard
1981 NME'
1934 NME
'Actrif.ion
1
'Prij-Standarc
'
;I981 NME
i
;.1.934 NME
'77
" «*<*! i
kiU^^UGT'
17
'Set in Fle.atfi78
iPre-Standarc
j
J1981 NME
I
19 8 4 F.-1E
1 j
i78
1
'78
.7?i:.soL'.ai
i
cmar**
17
470
470
16
'.tSfOauet.
453
453
i
t
47
(50)
47
'82
(50)
47
.1ST .84
(51)
47
437! 390 343296
437
390
o
293
50
196
100
(B
(51)
47
249
98
151
0
'85
etrc
(I
0
202
0
.
51
'86
fit!
.etrc
; o
202
-iaz
>fit;
3
202
.151
LSI,
^
10
199
148
'n8,9r
10
'
189
138
.
!9P,
14
179
128
12L
.121
I
t
14
165
114
14
151
100
...1.93
14
137
86
'9J'95
14
123
72
.
14
1Q9
58
'96
'
14
95
44
'97
14
81
30
J.9,8
'14
67
16
,',.99
13
53
2
51
""I
f,qp...
i
40
0
40
(1)
(2)
(3)
o
i
* As of January 1.
Before retrofit: JT3D
After retrofit: CFM56}. JT8D-209
-------
Table II - (d)
FLEET TABLE - 15 Year Attrition
C.nr.c-norv: 2
<
Year
Production
Pr -'-Standard
1981 NME
. ' ' '
[1984 NME
£. =rr-uui.-^ssr-.-»i4Ata5r:.^r*.
At f.rition
"
Pre-Standarc
;19S1 N'ME
1984 NME
Net in Fleet
i
Pre-Standarc
1981 NME
1984 NME
.Eng
Izi
6
...il'l.VB-
n
0
ine
, VW.-I V-1-V
'78
i
13
iXaW w-V
6.
6
'
Wide Body
'79J'8n
13j20
I
,
""~*-
-,
19
19
0
32
32
'8J
0
20
52
52
0
'82
21
72
-
20
'83
21
0
"**-*
iai
0
±
"
93 1114
- i
41
62
0
1
'.95
19
itfr-MCMi..!
135
-
21
~--^-~-
'8,5
21
f_M^M_--Tl_
154
-
40
'87
-*J3..i
25
f^lMTff
175
-
61
_ - ^ar* '
' 89
t n.nxi.1,11
'99.
1
i
i
27
200
-
86
1 1
i
32
'-"-"'-'!
227
-
113
190_
21
259
-
145
r*«ii«KM^t
i£L
1 23
'"*"*"
0
280
166
' *^*t ..i*.
IQO
^-^*-
31
^. HM»i*jJ-
6
303
52
189
12.?
AO
13
328
46
220
i
JjKi
41
13
355
33
'95
Jl
. 20
0
383
20
i
260
301
'96
54
. L*f, «.'*»!
0
20
415
0
62
353
'97
[
58
21
449
42
407
'98
61
21
486
21
465
- ,_ ±_- -* -
'9?
i 64
0
21
526
0
526
'00
)
i
i
i i^Mn I**
56S
56S
(1)
(2)
(3)
* As cf January 1.
Before 1984: CF6-50
1984 and after: CF6-50, RB211-524
-------
Table II - (e)
FLEET TABLE -15 Year Attrition
Category: 3 Engine Wide Body
! Year
r
IProduction
I
Pre-Star.dard
J1981 NME
i
1984 NME
t
jAttritlon
jPre-Standarc
1981 NME
' " T -" / V"\ E'
iu.-jo4 N.-iE
'77
10
'78| '79
10
««n
.
* Nat in FleciJ202J212
Pre-Standart
1331 NME
'
11984 NME
1
10
222
i
202J212 J222
i
'8n
34
0
...,...' 8 2.!..' 8 3
0
40
'
1
1
232J266
232
266
j
0
45
306
52
0
351
i
40 1 85
'84
0
60
403
-
137
0
'85
40
.
0
463
-
60
'86.
61
17
503
266
l&tf&l-
85
37
547
249
'-
89
37
i
,
94
37
i
I
i
595
212
i
i
1000.61
246
647
175
335
'90
64
37
704
138
ICM
64
37
731
101
I
429J493
-. . . -T.-.I
'97
39
10
758
. 64
557
'93' '94
39
10
787
54
596
. 41
10
816
44
_ - -
~ **":
'95
66
34
0
847
34
635J676
unOTi 1 1
'96
73
0
40
879
0
137.
742
'97
79
45
912
97
815
'98
88
52
946
52
894
'?9
97
0
60
9fi?
0
982
00
i
019.,
L019
(1)
(2)
(3)
' As of January 1.
Before 1981: RB211-22B and CF6-6
1981 and after: RB211-22B, RB211-524, CF6-6, CF6-50
ro
I
-------
Table II - (f)
FLEET TABLE - 15 Year Attrition
Category: 4 Engine Wide Body
Year
i
'Product ior.
Pre-Standard
1981 NME
i
1984 NME
2L
10
Attrition 1
Pre-Star.dard
i
11981 KME
i
(
J1984 NME
Met in Fleet
Pre-Standarc
1981 NM2
1984 NME
106
106
78! '79
i
i
10
.
.
116
116
12
126
126
'So! '81
16
0
1
0
18
.
. ,^
..'82
21
! '.83' 84 I1 85
i
23
0
138 154J 172JL93
138
154
0
-
18
-
39
0
25
0
216
-
62
0
26
15
'86
27
15
241 J252
154
25
139.
51
'87
27
15
'.88
28
15
264J276
124
78
109
105
',.8.9.
28
15
289
94
133
,90r
34
15
302
79
' 91
36
16
321
64
161J195
'9.2
21
10
341
48
231
.',.9.3
32
10
362
38
252
36
12
384
28
284
42
16
0
408
16
320
'96
45
0
18
434
0
62
362
',97
59
21
461
44
407
'98
54
23
0
489
23
466
.'99
57
0
25
52C
0
52C
',op.,.
552
552
(1)
(2)
(3)
''' As of January 1.
Before 1981: JT9D-7
1981 and after: JT9D-7, JT9D-70
-------
Table III - (a)
FLEET TABLE - 20 Year Attrition
Engine Narrow Body
Year
Production
, . , .. .
Pre-Standarc
1981 NME
>
t
1 - *'j.'4 X^'E
I
Attrition
I
! Pre-Standarc
t
t
t
|:.9?1 NME
I
1^4 NME
* !"c: in Fleet
y *"--*
'77
30
..-iiii^:.
JMtDfc-
Hfi
j
'Prr.-Standarc! r-,f
" n " "* ^*\ * 17
-LVOj. iW'lIj
!
19 84 NME
(
'78j '79
32
V«2C«i-JJt.'
w.1»t&ir.
566
566
33
uvk-WMfl**
j"^mȣZT
598
'
598
.'.80
35
0
'81
0
36
(
.
'82
39
B^OTaor. . .
6311666 702
631
_J
666
0
36
'8^'8A
41
0
741
75
0
43
782
_
116
0
'S5
1
0
325
43
jrai.H.-wim.
'86
50
4S
826
666
44
'
'87
50
-
827
617
94
'88
^-.Ujy. <^i
50
-
828
568
',S9
,*-. ,.
i
51
-p
829
519
.
I
144 194
',9Q,
60
-
831
470
245
PI
60
-
842
421
305
'92
61
-
853
372
'93J '94
61
-
86!
322
365 426
61
-
877
274
487
'95
60
49
889
225
548
'96
59
46
900
176
608
'97
42
30
913
130
667
'98
44
32
925
100
709
9?
46
33
937
68
753
'00
35
950
35
799
(1)
(2)
(3)
* As of January
Before 1981:
1981 - 1983:
1984 and after:
JT8D-17
JT8D-209, CFM56
JT8D-209, CFM56
CF6-32, JT10D, RB211-535
-------
fable III - (b)
FLEET TABLE - 20 Year Attrition
Category: 3 Engine Narrow Body
L~J^r_ ^
I'7-odnction
Pre-Standarc
!"
1981 KME
.1.984 KME
Attrition
"'re-Stnr.cc.rc'
1981 KME
-
] r; a /. w rr
.1. . y ./r i\ . .11.
Net: in Fleet
'77
r»
.
32
-JiiCM.
'78
.- ^.-,.
33
1 j
I
.
ji-rc-Standar'Wl
'09
fc«*»-^iir*-.
38.
~"
trM.3l.-iti.::
779
419
360
'93
'
39
7,54
356
398
40
63
'
7,30
293
437
.UUMOUJ^
42
65
'96
43
65
'97
11
32
7071 684i 662
230
165
.
477J519
|
100
562
'98
12
33
641
68
573
t J
15
35
»» gia'. -
62C
35
58!
ii HI i»»a>|
'.0.0
0
J
1
600,
0
60C
(1)
(2)
(3)
* As of Januarv 1.
Before 1984: JT8D-17
1984 and after: CF6-32, JT10D, RB211-535
Ul
I
-------
Table III - (c)
FLEET TABLE - 20 Year Attrition
Category: 4
UYear
i Production
jPre-Standard
i
[1981 NME
h
f "
1 3.93 4 NME
/" ~r '^
Attrition
i
SPre-Standnrc:
i '
i 3.981 NME
!
3.954 NME
[>!F:r. -Jn Fleet
Pre~Standarc
I
1981 NHE
1984 NME
Eng
L -"-*
'77
17
487'
487
ine Narrow Body
'78
~~~
17
'79
16
J80.!.'8li. '82
47
(50)
47
j
(50)
47
470 k53 1437 J390 343
470 J453
437
390
0
293
50
"^
(51]
47
296
196
100
^r
(5;;
47^
249
98
151
0
^W^'rt t ^
0
202
0
-
51
i.^.i. . a.^l.tf»nt_J^^^>-IjL,f.-»1»
r86 /^zba.
-
202
-
T
-»~«
3
202
151
10
199
148
'
j___
L8.9.
mn nft»
10
189
138
-
'90
14
179
1
128
-
To
14
165
114
-
' '""' '
.'.92
14
151
100
-
'93
14
137
86
-
- ****-*'
'94
14
123
72
-
'95
14
109
'96
14
95
58 f 44
i
'97
14
81
30
-
'98
14
67
16
-
W^'^ ?**Jg
J.2E
13
53
2
51
tetf^^*^'^
' QQ..,
40
0
40
(1)
(2)
(3)
''' As cf January 1.
Before retrofit: JT3D
After retrofit: CFM56, JT8D-209
-------
Table III - (d)
FLEET TABLE - 20 Year Attrition
.
.If
Category: 2 Engine Wide Body :'
Year
Production
Pre-Scandarc
1981 KME
.1984 NME
Atlrit ion
'
'77
'73; '79
i i
6
/Z..JS-A-*
Pra-Standcirq
i
J:)h.L -^
' r\ O / \T\ TTI
12O-; Khr.
.
MKU^ZA
0
j
rre-Srandartj Q
1
1931 XME
19S4 KME
13
'
' ^ *1 r- f ?*i
6
6
13
--r "--
17
19
i
j
J
,
'SO! '81
J
1
20
0
(yr^j. -
0
20
^JCIA^OU.
32 i 52
I
32 j 52
0
'82
21
-
'
.^^^...
72
-
20
i
'JP
'84 !'*>!'.%
i )
21
0
"t* r *
93
41
0
21
19
i
114
62
135^
0 21
1
21
154
40
'87
25
I
'88,
.
27
I
175
61
200
_
86
L.8.9..
h
32
,.«-» **-
227
!.QQ
'21
"*-"
:.u
23
"*
259 28C
113
i
145
' 00
-<-**'--
25
'
-,
' Q "^
:J -
27
3JQ1J32&
166J189
1
214
""** "~"
28
,^».
32
383
.
241
'96 1 '97
._ ..j
34
0
41 ">
j
269
301
43
6
449
52
335
J_98
53
13
486
46
378
^92
56
13
1PJL
20
I
S26 5fi9^
33
431
20
481
(1)
(2)
(3)
* As of January I.
Before 1984: CF6-50
1984 and after: CF6-50, RB211-524
-------
Table III - (e)
FLEET TABLE - 20 Year Attrition
*
Year
Production
Pre-Standard
1981 NKE
1934 KME
Attrition
^re-Stgndarc
1981 NME
1954 NME
-J^LJ* \rffc^ *y* rfofc t*Ti'fc**'B*' *^T " F**
Net. an FJa«t
?r?.-Standarc
1931 NME
1984 NME
^
'77
j_«. ».__.^
10
«
202
202
i
'78
10
"
212
212
'79
'*' i? i T
10
222
222
'80
34
0
JfyTr.-^fcj
232
481
0
40
,182
45
!
_J-
266
1
232| 266
0
306
-
40
i
Jjy
52
0
351
85
'94
0
60
403-
. .
137
o
',85
40
463
_
60
.'.8.6 (.1871:8.8. l'.85.
44
503
-
100
1
48
547
-
144
'
52
595
-
192
i
i
57
647
244
'9Q
:
27
0
704
-
301
'91
44
17
731
266
328
'9?
66
37
758
249
372
'93
(*«**£.
66
37
787
212
438
'94
68
37
816
175
504
'95
69
37
847
138
!
572
'96
70
37
879
101
641
,:.97
44
10
912
64
711
.'?8
.46
10
946
54
75!
.'.,9?
47
10
982
44
801
'PP.,,
1
34:
101?
34
848
(1)
(2)
(3)
oo
* As of January 1
Before 1981: RB211-22B and CF6-6
1981 and after; RB211-22B, RB211-524, CF6-6, CF6-50
-------
Table III - (f,
FLEET TABLE - 20 Year Attrition
Category: 4 Engine Wide Body
Year
Production
Pre- Standard
t
1.1981 NME
i
1934 NME
1 Attrition
i
jPre-Sr.andarc
i
jlvSl NME
i
t
'77
10
rscitue
, i
|1984 NME
* bet in Fleotp-06
lF'ra-Staridarql_06
l
!
11931 NME
1
i
J19S4 SME
'78
10
116
116.
'79
12
126
126
«n
16
0
'81
0
18
-
.*-«».»*-
138[L54
138
J
154
0
.18.2].. '83
21
__ .
- ar"' '
f f tm tiW*1
L72
18
23
0
lUr^f-fffur
193
-
39
'84
0
25
216
62
0
'8S
11
»«*«* »^ -
241
25
'Rfi
12
1--
252
-
36
'87
12
.
264
'
48
'A*
13
276
60
t- :
f O Q
13
0
189
i
73
L2SL
34
15
302
154
86
IS1
35
.
-
321
139
120
57
36
-
341
124
'93
37
-
362
109
1
155
191
'94
39
"**1*^* "
-
384
94
228
'95
41
'96
43
:
" 's ""
i
i
15
408
79
267
16
;
434
64
308
'97
38
10 .
461
48
351
,'98
41
10
48S
o c
38S
99
44
12
520
28
430
'00,,
16
552
16
474
(1)
(2)
(3)
* As of January 1.
Before 1981: JT9D-7
1981 and after: JT9D-7, JT9D-70
-------
-20-
Table IV
VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYED
IN THE FAA FORECAST
Variable
Revenue Passenger miles
Average seating capacity
Average stage-length
Aircraft Type
- Two-engine
- Three-engine
- Four-engine
Passenger Load Factor
Assumptions
Economic assumptions are the same
as those used in the air carrier
demand model (Reference 2).
Average seating capacity will increase
by about 4 seats per year as air
carriers attempt to reduce the cost
per seat-mile by purchasing more wide-
body aircraft and adding seats to
the existing fleet.
Average stage-length will increase
by about 3 miles per year.
Continued introduction of DC-9 and
737 (both new and purchased from
truck carriers) into local service
carrier fleets.
Replacement of remaining turboprops
with twin engine standard-body
aircraft in late 1970s.
Introduction of a new wide-body
aircraft in early 1980s.
Continued introduction of wide-body
aircraft and 727-200.
Introduction of new aircraft in early
1980s with seating capacity between
727-200 and wide-body aircraft.
Appearance of stretch versions of
present wide-body aircraft in the
mid-1980s.
Continued retirement of nonfan and
older fan-jet aircraft.
Continued introduction of present
wide-body aircraft.
A gradual increase in the load-factor
from the present 55 percent to 58
percent by the early 1980s and then
remaining at this level through the
forecast period.
-------
-21-
Table V
JUDGMENTAL ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYED IN EPA PROJECTION
Aircraft
Category Assumption
4 Engine Wide Body B747 family exclusively
3 Engine Wide Body L1011-100,-200,-500
DC-10-10,-30
2 Engine Wide Body A300 B1,-B2 (after 1978)
Twin DC-10 (after 1984)
L1011-600 (after 1984)
4 Engine Narrow Body B707, B720
~ '- DC-8
3 Engine Narrow Body B727-200 (up to 1984)
B7S7, 3 engine (after 1984)
2 Engine Narrow Body DC-9-30
B737-200
DC-9-S80 (after 1981)
B737-300 (after 1981)
B7S7, 2 engine (after 1984)
-------
-22-
Table VI
ARBITRARY ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYED IN EPA PROJECTION
Aircraft
Category
4 Engine Wide Body
Assumptions
(1) JT9D engines dedicated exclusively to the
B747 fleet.
(2) JT9D-7 produced exclusively prior to 1981.
(3) Equal number of JT9D-7 and -70 models produced
after 1981.
3 Engine Wide Body
(1) Equal numbers of L1011-100 and DC-10-10
produced exclusively prior to 1981 (using
RB211-22B and CF6-6, respectively).
(2) Equal numbers of L1011-100, L1011-200 and
500 together, DC-10-10, and DC-10-30 produced
after 1981 (using the RB211-22B, RB211-524,
CF6-6, and CF6-50, respectively).
2 Engine Wide Body
(1) A300 Bl or B2 produced exclusively prior to
1984 (using CF6-50) .
4 Engine Narrow Body
(2) Equal numbers of A300, Twin DC-10, and
produced after 1984 (using in the first two ca>
the CF6-50 and in the last, the RB211-524) .
(1) All aircraft retrofitted with equal numbers
of CFM56 and JT8D-209 engines by 1985 to meet
EPA and FAA environmental standards.
3 Engine Narrow Body
(1) B727-200 produced exclusively to 1984 (JT8D-17).
(2) A three engined version of the B7S7 utilizing
a clipped fan high-bypass engine is produced
exclusively after 1984.
(3) The clipped fan engine is represented by equal
numbers of the CF6-32, JT10D, and RB211-535.
2 Engine Narrow Baody
(1) Prior to 1981, the aircraft are various
models of the DC-9 and B737, and the propulsion
is represented by the JT8D-17 for emissions
purposes.
(2) Between 1981 and 1984, the aircraft produced are
the DC-9-S80 (JT8D-200 series) and B737-300
(CFM56).
(3) After 1984, the production is equally divided
between the short haul (DC-9-S80 and B737-300
in equal numbers) and the short/medium haul
(B7S7, twin engine version powered in equal
numbers by the three clipped fan engines).
The DC-9-S80 is powered by the JT8D-209 and
the B737-300 by the CFM56.
-------
-23-
Table VII
ENGINE INVENTORY
(15 year attrition rate)
Engine
JT8D-17
JT8D-209
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
JT10D
CF6-6 -
CF6-50
CF6-32
CFM56
Standard
1981
549
264
124
124
0
105
226
0
262
1985 Retrofit
2947
302
616
0
0
399
104
0
302
1984*
0
570**
1040
1040
933
738
1437"
933
570**
RB211-22B
RB211-524
RB211-535
102
102
0
399
0
0
738
1085
932
* 15 years of production (to 1999).
** These numbers include 102 engines newly built in 1984 to be retrofitted
onto the B707 and DC-8 fleet for compliance with the 1985 Retrofit
Rule. Although these engines exceed the requirements specified by
the rule, their date of manufacture forces them to comply with the more
stringent standards (see Table II(c)).
-------
-24-
Table VIII
ENGINE INVENTORY
(20 year attrition rate)
Engine
JT8D-17
JT8D-209
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
JT10D
CF6-6
CF6-50
CF6-32
CFM56
RB211-22B
RB211-524
RB211-535
Standard
1981
*o
116
. t
124
124
0
105
226
0
116
192
102 ;
0
1985 Retrofit
3894
302
616
0
0
399
'''' ;- 104
0
302
399
0
0
1984*
0
478**
860
860
837
600
, '1177
836
W8**
600
888
836
* 15 years production (to 1999).
** These numbers include 102 engines newly built in 1984 to be retrofitted
onto the B707 and DC-8 fleet for compliance xvith the 1985 Retrofit
Rule. Although these engines exceed the requirements specified by the
rule, their date of manufacture forces them to comply with the more
stringent standards (see Table lll(c)).
-------
-25-
Table IX
ENGINE INVENTORY
NO 1984 STANDARD
(15 year attrition rate)
Standard
Engine
JT8D-17
JT8D-209
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
JT10D
CF6-6
CF6-50
CF6-32
CFM56
RB211-22B
RB211-524
RB211-535
1981 NME*
549
582
848
848
713
' . ; 660 . .
1254
713
582
660
893
713
1985 Retrofit
2947
404
616
0
0
399
104
0
404
399
0
0
* 15 years production (to 1996)
-------
-26-
Table X
ENGINE INVENTORY
NO 1984 STANDARD
(20 year attrition rate.)
Standard
Engine
JT8D-17
JT8D-209
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
JT10D
CF6-6
CF6-50
CF6-32
CFM56
RB211-22B
RB211-524
RB211-535
1981 HUE*
0
420
740
740
723
588
1106
721
420
582
885
721
1985 Retrofit
2947
404
616
0
0
- 399-
104
0
404
399
0
0
* 15 years production (to 1996)
------- |