EPA SOS/4-77-DOS EMISSION INVENTORY CAPITAL DISTRICT C NEVA/ YORK 3 AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA IV! AY I B *7 7 FINAL. REPORT U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY REGION II AIR BRANCH: BfyViROMIVICrVTAt. PBOOBAM DIVISION •B FHO«*»AL PLAZA NEW YORK, NBW YORK IOOQ7 ------- EPA-902/4-77-002 May 1977 EMISSION INVENTORY CAPITAL DISTRICT (NEW YORK) AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA by Thomas W. Easterly Capital District Regional Planning Commission Albany, New York 12207 Contract No. 68-02-2314 Project Officer George Kerr Environmental Programs Division Environmental Protection Agency New York, New York 10007 CAPITAL DISTRICT REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION 79 North Pearl Street Albany, New York 12207 ------- TECHNICAL REPORT DATA (Please read Injunctions on the reverse before coni^letinf;! 1 REPORT NO. 2. EPA 90214-77-002 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE EMISSION INVENTORY 3 RECIF 5. REPO CAPITAL DISTRICT (NEW YORK) AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREAS'PERF 7. AUTHOR(S) THOMAS W. EASTERLY, NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL 8 PERF CONSERVATION 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. PRO CAPITAL DISTRICT REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION 79 NORTH PEARL STREET ALBANY, NEW YORK 12207 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY REGION II AIR BRANCH: ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS DIVISIO 26 FEDERAL PLAZA NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10007 11. CON 68- 13. TYP FIN M 14. SPO 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 'lENT'S ACCESSION-NO. RT DATE ORMING ORGANIZATION CODE DRMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO. GRAM ELEMENT NO. TRACT/GRANT NO. 02-2314 E OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED AL MSORING AGENCY CODE 16. ABSTRACT THIS PROJECT PROVIDES A DISAGGREGATED PARTICULATE AND SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSION INVENTORY SUITABLE FOR USE IN BOTH BASE YEAR AND PROJECTION YEAR MODELING REQUIRED FOR THE CAPITA DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA. THE ALLOCATION AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY IS ESSENTIALLY THAT OF VOLUMES 7 AND 13 OF THE GUIDELINES FOR AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS SERIES PUBLISHED BY USEPA. THE PUBLISHED REPORT CONTAINS COUNTY AND AQMA LEVEL ESTIMATES OF RESIDENTIAL AND NON- AUTOMOTIVE TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS FOR THE BASE AND PROJECTION YEARS. IT ALSO IN- CLUDES THE EXPECTED GROWTH OR DECLINE OF COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS. 17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS a. DESCRIPTORS ALBANY- SCHENECTADY-TROY CAPITAL DISTRICT PARTICULATE MATTER SULFUR DIOXIDE AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE EMISSION PROJECTIONS 18 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT AVAILABLE FROM NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMA- TION SERVICE, 5285 PORT ROYAL ROAD, SPRINGFIELD, VIRGINIA 22151 b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDE 19. SECURITY CLASS (This 1 UNCLASSIFIED 20. SECURITY CLASS (This f UNCLASSIFIED D TERMS c. COSATI Field/Group It-port) 21. NO. OF PAGES 51 )age) 22. PRICE EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73) 11 ------- This air pollution report is issued by Region II, Environmental Pro- tection Agency, to assist state and local air pollution control agencies in carrying out their program activities. Copies of this report may be obtained, for a nominal cost, from the National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22151. This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by the Capital District Regional Planning Commission, Albany, New York in fulfillment of Contract No. 68-02-2314. This report has been reviewed by the Air Branch, EPA and approved for publication. Approval does not sig- nify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or com- mercial products constitute endorsement of recommendation for use. iii ------- ABSTRACT This project provides a disaggregated particulate matter and sulfur dioxide emission inventory suitable for use in both base year and projec- tion year modeling required for the Capital District Air Quality Mainten- ance Area. The allocation and projection methodology is essentially that of Volumes 7 and 13 of the Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Plan- ning and Analysis series published by the United States Environmental Pro- tection Agency. The published report contains county and AQMA level estimates of res- idential and non-automotive transportation emissions for the base and pro- jection years. It also includes the expected growth or decline of the com- mercial and industrial emissions. Actual commercial and industrial emis- sions are not contained in this report due to possible changes in the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation base year emission estimates. UTM cell level data is stored in the files of the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. Due to the limited growth projected for the Capital District and the trend towards electric space heating, only the commercial area source emissions are expected to show significant growth over the next 25 years. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 68-02-2314 by the Capital District Regional Planning Commission under the sponsor- ship of the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. This report covers the period May 1, 1976 to May 31, 1977, and work was completed as of May 31, 1977. iv ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ill Abstract Iv List of Charts vi INTRODUCTION 1 GENERAL INFORMATION Cell Identification 1 Data Availability 2 Population and Economic Proj ections 2 RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS 12 Population by UTM Cell 12 Fuel Split Relative Fuel Requirements 16 Other Years 16 Future Year Fuel Splits 17 Future RFR1s 20 Fuel Use 21 COMMERCIAL-INDUSTRIAL-INSTITUTIONAL ALLOCATIONS 25 Employment Data 25 Land Use Count 25 Employment per Cell 25 Point Source Adjustment 26 Allocating Base Year Emissions 28 Projection of Future Emissions 28 Industrial Point Source 28 Industrial Area Sources 30 Commercial Point Source Employment 31 Commercial Area Source Employment 31 Comparison of AQMA to SMSA 32 Future Year Area Source Emissions 32 TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS Public Roadways 33 Airports 33 Railroad Yards 34 Port of Albany 34 INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS 36 INCINERATION EMISSIONS 36 POWERPLANT EMISSIONS 36 APPENDICIES 37 Technical Memo - Small Area Forecast 38 Changes due to Multiple Cell TAZs 46 ------- LIST OF CHARTS Comparison of EDB and CDRPC Population Projections 3 Contents of Program and Data Files Used in This Contract 4 Heating Fuel Types by Year Built, Occupancy, Heating Equipment.... 13 Household Heating Fuel Type by County Portion 1970 16 Average Household Size by County 17 New Electric Heating Customers as % of Total New Electric Customers 19 CDRPC Electric Heat Estimates vs Average NYSE&G and N-M Estimate.. 20 RFR's for New Construction 21 Residential Fuel Use and Emissions by County 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1995 22 Combustion Point Sources Subtracted from AIR45 26 Growth Rate for Each Industrial Point Source 29 Industrial Point Source Employment by Location by Year 30 Changes in Area Source Industrial Employment 30 Comparison of AQMA and SMSA Area Source Employment 32 Schenectady County Airport Aircraft Emissions 33 Albany County Airport Aircraft Emissions 34 Industrial Growth Factors, Capital District AQMA 36 Changes due to Multiple Cell TAZs 46 VI ------- CONTRACT NO. 68-02-2314 EMISSION INVENTORY BY UTM GRID CELL CAPITAL DISTRICT (NEW YORK) AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA INTRODUCTION The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation is required to perform an analysis of the Capital District Air Quality Maintenance Area to insure that the ambient air quality will be maintained at a level that does not violate Federal Standards. Part of this analysis includes diffusion modeling of the Region's air quality with proposed pollution sources in oper- ation. In order to properly perform this diffusion modeling, an inventory of air pollution emissions by UTM Grid Cell is required for the current year and for any future years to be analyzed. The Capital District Regional Planning Commission has generated popula- tion land use and transportation data at the UTM Grid Cell level as part of its ongoing comprehensive planning efforts. The purpose of this contract is to transform CDRPC's data into the emission data required for input to the diffusion model. This is being done for two pollutants: Particulate Matter and Sulfur Dioxide. GENERAL INFORMATION CELL IDENTIFICATION - CDRPC does its computer planning work on the basis of UTM Grid cells. However, CDRPC's numbering system is such that a point to the south west of the Region is (0,0) and all numbers are less than 999, al- lowing a six digit coordinate identification. The first three digit number is the east-west number and the second is north-south. It is a simple mat- ter to convert from CDRPC to UTM, however, as all of CDRPC's raw data is stored by CDRPC ID, all products generated in this contract give the CDRPC coordinate. When the data is combined for modeling, the following adjust- ments should be made: 555 should be added to the first three digits to get UTM Easting; 4692 should be added to the second three digits to get UTM Northing. ------- DATA AVAILABILITY - All computer programs and data files generated under this contract have been delivered to NYSDEC in paper copy form. Addition- ally, machine readable versions have been delivered to NYSDEC through the use of a special CDRPC mass storage file named AIR. AIR. was established by CDRPC and any data to be transferred is read into the AIR. file by CDRPC and used by NYSDEC. Due to the large amount of data generated under this project, DEC has asked CDRPC to store most data on computer tape to be re- trieved, if necessary, at a future date. CDRPC has complied with this re- quest. A list of all programs and data files with a summary of their contents is contained at the end of this GENERAL INFORMATION Section. This informa- tion should allow interested persons to request copies of data elements or programs for inspection as required under 40FR51, section 51.62. A complete dump of all AIR. files is a 6" thick stack of over 2000 pages costing over $80.00 to print. Therefore, due to the limited useful- ness of such a dump, only one copy of most data exists. These copies have all been delivered to NYSDEC, and CDRPC does not intend to print such a dump again. If copies of specific programs or data files are necessary for the review of this work, they will be printed on request. POPULATION AND ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS - When this project was initiated, CDRPC stated its intent to base all projections on CDRPC's Preliminary Regional Development Plan. The projections in the plan were consistent with Office of Planning Services Regional projections. Since that time, the NYS Economic Development Board (EDB) has come up with new population projections (and by implication new economic projections) that result in a 1.3% higher SMSA level population in the year 2000, but a 10% lower AQMA population. A more detailed comparison of the figures is contained at the end of this subsection. CDRPC has not revised its Regional Development Plan to correspond to EDB's projections. However, CDRPC is con- sulting with its member counties during the plan refinement stage to arrive at mutually acceptable population projections for the small areas in the Region. It is evident that the revised projections will be somewhere between CDRPC's Plan populations and EDB's projected populations. However, no hard numbers are available at this time. Therefore, CDRPC did all AQMA projec- tion work with its Plan socioeconomic projections. It can be expected that any revised population projections will result in a more dispersed develop- ment pattern, and thus lower area source contributions to the hot spots. Based on past experience, New York State can be expected to revise its projections for the Capital District almost every year. (Since 1974 the State has changed the Region's year 2000 population from 910,000 to 885,000 to 897,000). It is not practical or useful to redetail all of CDRPC's work every year based on these marginal changes in the total population. There- fore, the projections used in this report will be the most up to date ones available from CDRPC until after the Regional Development Plan consultation ------- process is complete, and the Plan is adopted. COMPARISON OF CDRPC AND EDB COUNTY LEVEL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 1980 1970 Albany 287000 Rensselaer 153000 Saratoga 122000 Schenectady 161000 Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady EDB 293000 160000 169000 158000 296000 164000 191000 157000 299000 168000 214000 159000 301000 175000 259000 162000 10 Year % Growth 2.1 4.6 38.5 -1.9 1985 1990 2.0 5.0 26.6 0.6 2000 0.7 4.2 21.0 1.9 10 Year CDRPC % 295500 162800 154700 166000 303700 168400 165500 171400 311900 174100 176200 176800 330000 180000 189000 186000 Growth 3.0 6.4 26.8 3.1 Total Total 5.5 6.9 13.9 6.5 Total 5.8 3.4 7.3 5.2 Total Difference % + 2500 2800 -14300 + 8000 - 1000 + 7700 + 4400 -25500 +14400 - 1000 +12900 + 6100 -37800 +17800 - 1000 +29000 + 5000 -70000 +24000 -12000 0.9 1.8 -11.8 5.0 3.5 1.9 -12.7 5.9 5.1 - .8 -13.7 3.3 ------- CONTENTS OF PROGRAM AND DATA FILES USED IN THIS CONTRACT Name AIR1 AIR2 D - Data P - Program D AIRS D AIR4 AIR5 AIR6 D AIR7 Contents/Function Sorts through CDRPC File BLDBLK to obtain a list of the UTM cells in the communities in the AQMA. The output is AIR2 described below. A list of 2,143 cells in communities in the AQMA. The information on each cell is: CDRPC cell coord- inate, CDRPC TAZ number, CDRPC subregion (not used in AQMA work), a 4-letter MCD name, and data not used in AQMA work. A list of the 401 TAZ's in the AQMA and their cur- rent and projected populations. Information con- tained is: CDRPC cell coordinate (for one cell in each TAZ), CDRPC TAZ number, 1970 census population, projected 1980, 1990 and 2000 populations. Uses AIR2 and AIR3 to divide the TAZ population even- ly among the cells in the TAZ for each year. Output is AIR6 described below. AIR4 also indicates which TAZ's from AIR3 are not assigned to any cells so that the data may be manually edited. This name was used for many scratch files of non- permanent information. It contains no data not other- wise accounted for. This is the manually edited version of AIR6 contain- ing all necessary hand corrections. This file con- tains data for 2141 UTM cells. The data is: cell coordinate, TAZ number, subregion (not used), 4- letter name, estimated 1970 cell populated and pro- jected cell populations for 1980, 1990 and 2000. Scans a CDRPC copy of the Albany-Schenectady-Troy SMSA public use sample tape to find 1970 census data on tenure, heating equipment, year built, number of units/unit and heating fuel used. This data is stored in AIR8 described below. ------- D - Data Name P - Program AIRS D Contents/Function A list of 2517 household records from the Albany- Schenectady-Troy SMSA 1970 census. The data is in the census code. The decoding information is (in column order): Tenure Heating Equipment Year Built Units/Unit Heating Fuel 0 Owner occupied 1 Coop or condominum 2 Rented for cash 3 No rent 4 Vacant 0 Steam or hotwater 1 Central warm air 2 Electric 3 Floor or wall furnace 4 Space heater with flue 5 Flueless space heater 6 Fireplace or stove 7 No heat 8 Not available 0 1969-1970 1 1965-1968 2 1960-1964 3 1950-1959 4 1940-1949 5 Before 1939 6 Not available 0 Single family detached 1 Single family attached 2 Two family 3 Three or four family 4 Five to nine family 5 Ten to nineteen family 6 Twenty to forty-nine family 7 Over fifty family 8 Mobile home 9 Not available 0 Piped Gas 1 Bottled Gas 2 Electric 3 Fuel Oil 4 Coal 5 Wood 6 Other 7 None 8 Not available ------- Name AIR9 D - Data P - Program AIR10 Contents/Function A statistical package for social science cross-tab- ulation program to obtain cross tabulation of heat- ing fuel type with: number of units/unit, year built, heating equipment and tenure. Also, other cross-tabulations not used in this analysis. The output is paper copy only. No machine readable ver- sion of the output is available. This data element is a machine readable copy for all AQMA census tracts of the 1970 data in Table H-2 of Report PHC(l)-4 Census Tracts Albany-Schenectady- Troy, N.Y. Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area. Information contained is: Tract ID, all year round housing units, single family, 2-family, 3-4 family, 5 to 49 family, 50+ family, built 69-70, built 65-68, built 60-64, built 60-59, built 40-49, built before 39, steam or hot water, warm air furnace, built-in electric units, floor, wall or pipeless furnance, other means or not heated. AIR11 AIR12 Data element containing tract level heating for type estimates. See AIR18 for method of generation. Contains: Tract ID, Gas DU's, Electric DU's, Oil DU's, Coal DU's, and Wood DU's. Attached census tract identification to the cell level population data in AIR6. Stores output as AIR14. AIR13 AIR14 AIR15 P AIR16 P A list of all 468 CDRPC TAZ's and the census tract they are in. A list of the 2141 cells and their estimated 1970 population and projected 1980, 1990 and 2000 popu- lation. Contains: census tract, cell coordinate, TAZ, 4-letter name, estimated 1970 population, pro- jected 1980, 1990 and 2000 populations. Sums the 1970 populations in AIR14 by census tract for comparison with census tract figures. This pro- gram allows hand-editing data to correct for multi- ple tract cells. The AIR14 currently in the file is the edited version. Output is AIR 20. Sums tract level heating fuel estimates (AIR11) to get AQMA totals for purposes of checking against SMSA level data. No machine readable output. ------- D - Data Name P - Program AIR17 D AIR18 AIR19 AIR20 D AIR21 AIR22 AIR23 D AIR24 P AIR25 Contents/Function Output is the tract level summation of the disag- gregated household information in AIR10. Used only for checking with census tract book data. Generates tract level heating fuel estimates from three formulas based on the cross-tabulations in AIR9 and the tract level data in AIR10. The output is the average of the three formulas, and is stored as AIR11. A later verision of AIR17 - households by tract for checking purposes. A summation of the cell level population informa- tion in AIR14. Gives population by tract for com- parison with census tract book, also as data for input to Program AIR22. A modified output of AIR18. Gives tract name, total households, and fraction or tract households heated by gas, electric, oil, coal and wood. Used as input to Program AIR22. Computes total households by heating type by cell for 1970. Method is use AIR20 and AIR21 to get avg. household size in a tract. Use this figure on 1970 cell level population from AIR14 to get households/ cell. Apply tract level proportions from AIR10 to this number to get cell level households by heating fuel type. Output is AIR23. Output of AIR22, estimation of 1970 residential heat- ing fuel splits by cell for 1970. Contains: tract, TAZ, cell ID, 4-letter name, Gas HH, Electric HH, Oil HH, Coal HH, and Wood HH. It should be noted that this cell level information is a mathematical construction, and that the actual numbers for a cell obtained by survey would likely be different. A checking program. Sums AIR23 to the AQMA level for comparison with both the SMSA level data, and that generated by AIR16. Operates on AIR14 to obtain projected population change from 1970 to 1980, 1970 to 1990, and 1970 to 2000 by cell. The output is AIR26. This data was not used in the submitted AQMA projections. ------- D - Data Name P - Program AIR26 D AIR26A D AIR27 P AIR28 D Contents/Function Output of AIR25. Not used in final projection work. Contains tract, TAZ, cell ID, 4-letter name, pro- jected change 1970 to 1980, 1970 to 1990, and 1970 to 2000. A more sophisticated version of AIR26. AIR26A is the output of Program AIR27 and is an estimate of the population for future years that will not be housed in households existing in 1970. This ac- counts for both the "new" people from AIR26, and those that will move from existing households due to projected declines in household size. Program that computes population capacity of exist- ing households in future years due to declining household sizes and then compares this population to that predicted for the cell in the future years, and prints the difference (i.e. the projected popu- lation needing new households for the future year) by cell. Output is AIR26A. Operates on the data in AIR26A to develop predicted new households by fuel type by cell for 1980, 1990 and 2000. The fuel split is determined by the method discussed under Future Year Fuel Splits in this re- prot. Output is AIR28. For the 2118 cells with projected new households, gives the tract, TAZ, cell ID, 4-letter name, and new households for 1980, 1990 and 2000 for oil and electric heat. AIR29 P AIR30 P AIR31 D Uses data in AIR28 to find predicted new households to year 2000 for each minor civil division. A paper print is obtained. This data is used with informa- tion on predicted new land use. From CDRPC Regional Development Plan to obtain new units/acre. This data is used with the chart on page 10 of this re- port to obtain future year RFR's for each minor civil division. Program that uses the census tract data on units/ unit from AIR10 and data from volume 13 of the guidelines to calculate RFR's for 1970 for each census tract. Output is AIR31. List of tract level RFR's for 1970 computed by AIR30. Contains: tract, 1970 tract households, Gas RFR, Oil RFR, Coal RFR. ------- D - Data Name P - Program AIR32 P AIR33 D AIR33P P AIR34 AIR35 AIR36 AIR37 AIR38 AIR39 Contents/Function Uses output of AIR28 and computes mid-decade num- bers to meet contract requirements of data for 1975, 1985, and 1995. Output is AIR33. New households since 1970 by cell by fuel type for 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1995. Contains: Tract, TAZ, cell ID, 4-letter name and new electric and new oil fueled households since 1970 for 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1995. Combines 1970 cell level data from AIR23, 1970 RFR data from AIR31, predicted new households to future years from AIR33, manually entered future RFR's from AIR29, and fuel data from Volume 13 to produce out- puts of fuel consumed for residential heating by fuel type by cell for the contract years. Outputs are AIR75 Fuel, AIR80 Fuel, AIR85 Fuel, and AIR95 Fuel. Note: These computations were done using 6,875 degree days. A utility program that produces triple-spaced paper copies of each tract, TAZ, cell ID and name combina- tion. These copies are used for tabulating data from maps. A manually produced list of Cell ID's and actual counts of hectares of commercial, institutional and industrial land use from CDRPC's 1" to 1 mile 1973 land use map — only for multiple cell TAZ's. A program to attach the information in AIR35 to a list of all 2152 cells in the AQMA. Output is AIR37. A list of TAZ and Cell ID for each cell with count- ed land use for multiple cell TAZ's, A program to sort through CDRPC data file TAZLND to obtain a list of TAZ level measured land uses for all TAZ's in the AQMA. The output is AIR39, TAZ level land use in acres for AQMA contains: TAZ, COMMI, COMM2, INOI, IN02, INST. Land Use for each TAZ. For purposes of this work, commercial = COMMI and COMM2, and industrial = INDI and IND2. ------- D - Data Name P - Program AIR40 P AIR41 D AIR42 P AIR43 P AIR44 D AIR44AQMA D AIR45 D AIR45AREA D AIR46EMP D Contents/Function This program was to combine the data in AIR37 at the cell level with that in AIR39 at the TAZ level to get actual commercial, industrial and institu- tional land use per cell. It was never successful- ly completed and was not used in the AQMA analysis. An incorrect output from AIR40 not used in this analysis. Takes CDRPC's 73/74 employment by ID classes by TAZ and apportions it to cells in a TAZ based upon the distribution of the corresponding land use as counted in AIR39. Output is AIR45. Takes CDRPC's year 2000 projected population by TAZ and 73/74 population by TAZ and calculates the change in employment by class by TAZ between the base year and 2000. Output is AIR44. Projected changes in employment by TAZ between 73/ 74 and 2000 by class. Contains: TAZ, change in industrial, transportation, finance, government, services, wholesale, retail. A version of AIR44 summed to two classes - indust- rial and commercial/inst/government. Contains: TAZ and change in industrial, commercial for only area sources. Cell level 73/74 employment estimates developed by AIR42. Contains: Cell ID, TAZ, industrial, trans- portation, finance, government, service, wholesale and retail estimates by cell. A version of AIR45 with all employment in the com- bustion point sources identified in this document subtracted out manually; also certain adjustments were made to account for employment in sources that fell into more than one cell. Contains: Cell ID, TAZ, area source, industrial, transportation, finance, government, service, wholesale and retail employment estimates. A simplified version of AIR45AREA containing only the total industrial and commercial area source employment per cell. 10 ------- D - Data Name P - Program AIR46TOTAL D AIR46DIFF P AIR46POINT D AIR50 P AIR51 D AIR75FUEL AIR80FUEL AIR85FUEL AIR95FUEL AIR55 AIRS 6 AIR57 AIRAUTOCD D Contents/Function A simplified version of AIR45 containing only total industrial and commercial employment by cell. Subtracts AIR46EMP from AIR46TOTAL to get a list of point source employments by commercial or industrial by cell. Output is AIR46POINT. Output of AIR46DIFF. A list of point source adjust- ments to AIR46TOTAL (or AIR45) to get AIR46-EMP (or AIR45 Area). Computes future year area source commercial and in- dustrial employment by cell as discussed on pages 20 and 21 of this report. Output is AIR51. Output of AIR50. Estimated cell level future year commercial and industrial area source employment. Contains: Cell ID, TAZ, and industrial and commer- cial area source employment for 1980, 1985, 1995 and 2000. Outputs of AIR33P. Gives estimated cell level resi- dential fuel use for indicated year by fuel type. Contains: Tract, cell ID, TAZ, 4-letter name, mil- lion cubic ft. gas, thousand gallons of oil, tons of coal and tons of wood consumed in the cell for 6,874 degree days. A list of the DOT TAZ, CDRPC TAZ, cell ID, 4-letter name and census tract for each cell in the AQMA. Generated manually from MAPS. A list of the DOT TAZ and 1975 and 1985 TAZ particu- late emissions (in lb/24 hours) from N.Y.S. DOT data for each of the TAZ's in the AQMA. Allocates the TAZ level particulate emission esti- mates to the cell level, converts the lb/24 hour data to tons/year, and estimates sulphur dioxide emissions as 0.383 of the particulate emissions (based on Table 3.11-1 of AP-42). Output is AIR75- 85 auto. Estimated cell level mobile source particulate and sulphur dioxide emissions for 1975, 1980, 1985, 1995 and 2000. Contains: DOT TAZ, CDRPC TAZ, Cell ID, 4-letter name, census tract, 75 particulates, 75 SQ , 80 particulates, 80SOL, 85 particulates, 85S02> 95 particulates, 95S02> 2000 particulates and 2000 S0~ for each cell. 11 ------- RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS As of this date (November 30, 1976) NYSDEC has not been able to provide CDRPC with county level area source inventories. Therefore, CDRPC has computed residential emissions entirely from its own data sources and a modification of the order 3 methodology from Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis Volume 13: Allocating Projected Emis- sions to Sub-County Areas. The input data consisted of: the actual 1970, and projected 1980, 1990 and 2000 populations by Traffic Analysis Zone; a Traffic Analysis Zone to UTM grid conversion table; the Bureau of the Cen- sus publication PHC (1)-A Census Tracts, Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.; the Bureau of the Census Public Use Sample for the Albany-Schenectady- Troy, N.Y. SMSA; unpublished State of New York Economic Development Board population and household projections and internal CDRPC data. Each of these data sources is discussed in detail where appropriate. POPULATION BY UTM CELL - The first step in the residential emission procedure was to obtain population by UTM cell for the years required for AQMA work. This was done using two CDRPC data files and a computer pro- gram. Data file AIR2 is an AQMA only copy of CDRPC's file BLDBLK listing the CDRPC coordinate, TAZ number, sub-region, and Minor Civil Division as well as certain macro level estimates of existing and future development for each cell. Data file AIR3 is a copy of TAZPOP, developed as TOMPOP and described in the attached 1975 technical memo #501 Small Area Fore- cast lists the TAZ number and TAZ level population for the years 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000. A CDRPC program AIR4 splits the TAZ level popula- tions to the cell level using the fact that TAZ's were designed to be homogeneous. Thus, if there are 10 cells in a TAZ, the population of each cell is simply the TAZ level population divided by 10. The output of this process is AIR6, a data file containing cell coordinate, TAZ number, and cell population for 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 for each of the 2152 cells in the AQMA. There are a few cells that contain more than one TAZ, yet AIR4 can match only one TAZ to a cell. The program therefore makes a list of TAZ's not matched to cells and a hand edit of the data to include the populations of these TAZ's is required. This edit is done directly on the data in AIR6 and the current version of AIR6 includes all necessary hand changes. A list of the TAZ's included in the hand changes is in the appendix of this document. 12 ------- FUEL SPLIT - The Census of Housing contains data on household heating fuel use by county and certain cities. It would be inappropriate to apply heat- ing fuel splits from the city or county level to all cells in the city or county. Therefore, CDRPC developed a method of estimating heating fuel use by census tract. Program AIR7 creates a data file (named AIRS) of 2517 households and their heating fuel use, number of units/unit, heating equip- ment and year built from the Public Use Sample Tape. The public use sample is a 1% selection of actual 1970 census returns with all name and address information removed. The reason for creating this file is that number of units/unit, heating equipment type and year built are all reported at the census tract level, while heating fuel use is not. The program AIR9 is an SPSS cross-tabulation of heating fuel type against each of the other three data types. The resulting tables were modified to account for areas where pipeline gas is not available, and the only available gas is the more expensive LP gas commonly called propane. The areas with no gas available were deter- mined through discussions with Niagara Mohawk service representative (and CDRPC Commissioner) Thomas McGrath. The resulting tables are: HEATING FUEL USED VS YEAR BUILT PIPELINE GAS AVAILABLE HEATING Built 1969 Built 1965 Built 1960 Built 1950 Built 1940 Before FUEL and 1970 to 1968 to 1964 to 1959 to 1949 1940 Gas Electric Oil Coal Wood 43.3% 21.7% 35.0% 0% 0% 58.6% 8.6% 32.8% 0% 0% 57.0% 7.0% 36.1% 0% 0% 36.1% 0.8% 63.1% 0% 0% 33.5% 1.3% 63.5% 1.7% 0% 54.2% 1.0% 44.0% 0.8% 0% HEATING FUEL VS YEAR BUILT, NO PIPELINE GAS HEATING FUEL LP Gas Electric Oil Coal Wood Built 1969 and 1970 40.4% 22.8% 36.8% 0% 0% Built 1965 to 1968 35.9% 13.3% 50.8% 0% 0% Built 1960 to 1964 33.3% 10.8% 55.9% 0% 0% Built 1950 to 1959 33.1% 0.9% 66.0% 0% 0% Built 1940 to 1949 26.9% 1.4% 69.8% 1.9% 0% Before 1940 27.2% 1.5% 66.0% 1.2% 4.1% HEATING FUEL VS OCCUPANCY PIPELINE GAS AVAILABLE HEATING FUEL Gas Electric Oil Coal Wood 1-Family 42.9% 1.8% 54.7% 0.6% 0% 2-Family 68.0% 1.8% 29.9% 0.4% 0% 3-4 Family 58.6% 4.7% 35.3% 1.4% 0% 13 5-49 Family 42.1% 7.9% 50.0% 1.0% 0% 50+ Family 32.3% 0% 67.4% 0% 0% ------- HEATING FUEL VS OCCUPANCY, NO PIPELINE GAS HEATING FUEL LP Gas Electric Oil Coal Wood 1-Family 2-Family 3-4 Family 5-49 Family 50+ Family 28.8% 2.2% 65.4% 0.7% 2.9% 25.8% 4.1% 69.2% 0.9% 0% 34.1% 7.4% 56.3% 2.2% 0% 36.7% 8.5% 53.7% 1.1% 0% 34.4% 0% 65.6% 0% 0% HEATING FUEL VS HEATING EQUIPMENT, PIPELINE GAS AVAILABLE HEATING Steam or FUEL Hot Water Gas Electric Oil Coal Wood 42.3% 0% 57.0% 0.7% 0% Warm Air Electric 52.3% 1.3% 45.9% 0.5% 0% 0% 100.0% 0% 0% 0% Floor, Wall or Pipeless 52.2% 0% 43.5% 4.3% 0% Other 82.3% 0% 17.3% 0.4% 0% HEATING FUEL VS HEATING EQUIPMENT, NO PIPELINE GAS HEATING FUEL L.P. Gas Electric Oil Coal Wood Steam or Hot Water 14.4% 0% 84.6% 1.0% 0% Warm Air Electric 23.4% 2.0% 73.8% 0.8% 0% 0% 100.0% 0% 0% 0% Floor, Wall or Pipeless 78.4% 0% 19.6% 2.0% 0% Other 71.5% 0% 16.3% 0.3% 11.9% The following AQMA towns have no pipeline gas available: Albany County - Towns of Coeymans, New Scotland and Census Tract 146.05 in the Town of Guilderland Rensselaer County - Towns of Poestenkill, Sand Lake, 75% of Schaghticoke, and 65% of Brunswick Schenectady County - Town of Princetown, Census Tract 326.0 in the Town of Rotterdam and Census Tract 325.01 in the Town of Glenville. Thus, we can determine that while 46.2% of the Region's households heat with piped gas, only 1.8% of the mobile homes are heated with piped gas. From the output of AIR9, equations giving the number of dwelling units using a given heating fuel type can be developed for each of the three data items reported in the census tract book. Each of these three equations has some flaw that makes it undesireable to use it alone for generating tract level heating fuel uses. For example, each equation has one data choice that con- 14 ------- tains over 50% of the total sample. (These categories are single-family detached, 54.1%; built before 1939, 56.4%; and steam or hot water heating equipment, 50.3%). It was felt by the CDRPC staff that while no single equation was clearly superior to the other two, all had some strengths, and the heating fuel types for a tract could reasonably be estimated by taking the average of the estimates given by each of the three equations. The mechanics in- volved were to build data file AIR10 containing tract number, total house- holds, units in structure, year built and heating equipment from the tract book. Then the program A1R18 was written to predict households by fuel type for each tract by each method and to take the average of the three equations. The total output of AIR18 was printed so that it could be man- ually skimmed for any gross inconsistencies between formulas and the aver- ages were written as data element AIR11. This process gave households by fuel type by census tract. For AQMA work this information is required at the UTM cell level. No TAZ boundary crosses a census tract boundary. Therefore, each cen- sus tract can be viewed as consisting of many TAZ's. Element AIR13 is list of each TAZ with the number of the tract it is in. Program AIR12 attaches this information to the adjusted cell level populations from AIR6 and the aggregate information is stored in AIR14. As with AIR6, problems of lost tracts occurred in densely developed areas where more than one tract was located in a single UTM cell. These problems were addressed by manually editing AIR11 to combine tract data so that each combined tract represented a minimum of one entire UTM cell. Program AIR15 was used to check element AIR14 by adding up the TAZ population data to the tract level for compari- son with the census tract book. Program AIR16 checks element AIR11 by com- puting total households by heating fuel type for the AQMA for comparison with SMSA level data. The AQMA is smaller than the SMSA so the totals from AIR16 should be less than the numbers in the tract book. The output of AIR11 accounts for 92% of the gas, 91% of the electric, 89% of the oil, 98% of the coal and 61% of the wood heating fuel in the SMSA. Program AIR22 takes the information from the adjusted AIR11 and AIR14 and gives each cell a share of the tract households by fuel type propor- tional to the ratio of the cells population to the total tract population. This method assumes a constant fuel split in a tract, and as no better in- formation is available the assumption is necessary. The output of this program is AIR23 which gives the number of dwelling units using each fuel type for each UTM cell for 1970. The results of this process AIR23 contains data on over 2000 cells. This information is so detailed, it is hard to check it for reasonableness. Therefore, a program (AIR23ADD) was written to sum this information to the county level. The results are presented below: 15 ------- HOUSEHOLDS BY HEATING FUEL TYPE BY COUNTY PORTIONS 1970 CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA County Total Gas Electric Oil Coal Wood 46,562 613 58 21,225 211 78 5,226 41 0 26,646 361 26 99,659 1,226 162 Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady AQMA 97,192 42,841 11,382 54,197 205,612 47,609 20,294 5,702 25,930 99,535 2,350 1,033 413 1,234 5,030 RELATIVE FUEL REQUIREMENTS - Volume 13 of the Guidelines goes into great detail over the fact that multiple unit buildings use less fuel per unit than do detached single family dwellings. This effect is very important to the Capital District AQMA as most dwelling units near the "hot spots" are primarily multiple family units. The units in structure data from the census tract book was used to arrive at RFR's for gas and oil for each tract. The only problem in this process is that volume 13 breaks down the census tract book's 5 to 49 class into three classes (i.e. 5 to 9, 10 to 19, 20 to 49). Data from the public use sample tape was used to determine a composite RFR for the 5 to 49 unit group for each fuel type. The results are coal .47, oil .721, gas .672. Program AIR30 uses information in data file AIR11 and volume 13 of the Guidelines to compute an RFR for each tract for 1970. OTHER YEARS - The Process described above gives the data necessary to cal- culate residential fuel use by UTM cell for 1970. However, the maintenance analysis contract requires this information for the years 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1995. As there is no published measured data for 1975 which is compar- able to the 1970 Census of Housing, and since the years 1980, 1985 and 1995 are in the future, a method of projecting changes since 1970 was developed. The first step is to subtract the population due to group quarters from the cell level population contained in AIR14 for 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000. It would have been desireable to do this for the 1970 work, however, as the actual count of households per tract (instead of a number computed from household size and population) was used for that work, the inclusion of group quarters population in a tract made no difference. The next step was to obtain estimates of average household sizes for the future. The New York State Economic Development Board has published projections of both population and numbers of households by county. Thus for a given county the average household size in a future year is the pro- jected population divided by the projected number of households. The re- sults of this process are: 16 ------- AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY COUNTY Year Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady 1970 3.053 3.255 3.389 3.038 1975 2.900 3.078 3.295 2.891 1980 2.738 2.963 3.130 2.772 1985 2.619 2.828 2.984 2.661 1990 2.513 2.754 2.892 2.607 1995 2.467 2.730 2.788 2.597 2000 2.408 2.651 2.755 2.531 Source: NYS EDB county level projections The third step was to determine the number of inhabitants projected to live in a cell that would not be housed in the number of housing units currently in the cell. For example: A cell in Albany County has 305 people in 1970, this is 100 housing units. With declining household size, these same 100 housing units would be expected to house 274 people in 1980, so 31 people would need new housing units by 1980 if there was no change in the cells population. Any changes to the cells total population between 1970 and 1980 would be added to or subtracted from this 31 people to get the total number of people in the cell requiring new housing. This work was done by a computer program called L (because of a key- punch error) and the results — a list of the number of people needing new housing in 1980, 1990 and 2000 by cell is data file AIR26A. This informa- tion plus average household size allows us to project new dwelling units per cell; but for emissions, a fuel split is necessary. FUTURE YEAR FUEL SPLITS - Given present technology, the number of new homes with coal or wood heat is significant. Additionally, no new natural gas hook-ups are presently allowed, and there is no evidence to suggest that this ban will end. Therefore, almost all new dwellings can be assumed to be heated with oil or electricity. The tables of heating fuel type versus year built obtained from the cross tabulations of AIR9 show that the percentage of new residential dwel- lings using electric heat has increased dramatically from less than 1% of units built before 1960 to 22% of units built in 1969 and 1970. If this trend continues, all new housing units will use electric heat before the year 2000. The only available projections of electric vs non-electric (assumed to be oil) heating are those used by the electric utilities in the load fore- casting section of their annual 149-b long-range plans submitted to the New York State Public Service Commission. Their contention is that the easily useable fuels (i.e. oil and gas) are becoming scarce and expensive, and that electric utilities are much more able to use dirty fuels such as coal, dang- 17 ------- EXHIBIT 2 Location of Major Generating Additions STLAWERENCE MW(I99I) OSWEGO 5 850 MW( 1976) OSWEGO 6 850 MW( 1979) I LAKE ERIE 850 MW( 1985) I LAKE ERIE 2 850 MW( 1987) 9 MILE POINT 2 I080MW(I982) STERLING MW(I984) CAYUGA 850MW0982) PUMPED STORAGE 2 IOOOMW(I982) GREENE COUNTY I200MW(I984) i HOMER CITY 3 325MW(I977) V TARGET YEAR OF INSTALLATION UNIT RATING MID HUDSON WEST I 1300 MW( 1989) [ MID HUDSON WEST 2 [ 1300 MW (1991) 1 ( CORNWALL I-4 IOOOMW (1987) CORN WALL 5-8 1000 MW( 1988) MTA FOSSIL 700 MW (1982) JAMESPORT I II50MW(I983 JAMESPORT 2 1150 MW (1985 Legend Pumped Storage Hydro B on B Coal M Nuclear INDIAN POINT 3 I033MW(I976) NORTHPORT 4 386MW(I977) ASTORIA 6 800 MW (1976) I 820 MW( 1979) SHOREHAM WEST I I300MW(I990) 18 ------- erous fuels such as nuclear and hard to tap sources of energy such as hydro and geothermal. This ability and the scarcity of clean fuels will overcome the thermodynamic inefficiencies of present electric generation technology and give electric heat a very large share of the new housing market, and a reasonable share of the heating plant replacement market. It should be noted that the 149-b Plans are internally consistent, and that sufficient new generating capacity is contained in the Plans to meet the projected loads from all new sources including new electric heating customers. Figure 1 of this report, which is Exhibit 2 of the 1976 149-b Plan, shows the loca- tion of major generating additions planned through 1990. None are in the Capital District AQMA. To estimate the future electric vs non-electric fuel splits, the load forecast projections of the two electric utilities serving the Capital Dis- trict AQMA were examined in detail. These two utilities are: the Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation which serves most of the AQMA, and the New York State Electric and Gas Corporation. NIAGARA MOHAWK - the forecasts of future electric heating for the N-M Service Area is contained in Table 15 "APPLIANCE CONTRIBUTION TO KWH GROWTH" on pages 216 and 217 of Volume I of the 1976 149-b Plan. Year 1964 1966 1970 1974 1980 1990 1995 Total Electric Customers 944,143 972,864 1,057,280 1,117,457 1,224,900 1,369,700 1,421,500 % of Customers With Elec- tric Heat 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.0 7.3 15.0 17.4 New York State Electric // of Customers With Elec- tric Heat 2,832 4,864 12,687 22,349 89,418 205,455 247,341 and Gas - ' // of Customers Since 1970 # of New Elec- tric Heat Since 1970 // New Electric Heat as % of New Customers 9,662 76,731 192,768 234,654 60,177 167,620 312,420 364,220 16.06 45.78 61.70 64.43 ing for the NYSE&G Service Area is contained in Table VI. "Annual Satura- tion of Electrically Heated Dwelling Units" on page 179 of Volume 1 of the 1976 149-b Plan. Year 1965 456,879 0.43 1970 501,790 2.14 1975 557,000 6.20 1980 617,000 11.76 1985 671,000 19.80 1990 730,000 29.05 1995 780,000 37.44 Examination of these two tables gives the following table; 1,959 10,759 34,531 72,534 132,834 212,034 292,034 55,210 115,210 169,210 228,210 278,210 23,772 61,775 122,075 201,275 281,275 43.06 53.62 72.14 88.10 101.10 19 ------- EXPECTED % ELECTRIC HEAT IN "NEW" RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION (Since 1970) Year NYSE&G N - M Actual* 1970 24.28 9.27 (years 66-70) 22% 1975 43.06 16.06 (1974) 30% 1980 53.62 45.78 1985 72.14 Missing Data 1990 88.20 61.70 1995 101.10 64.43 * 1970 Actual from Capital District Public Use Sample Tape, 1975, from Telephone Survey by Dr. George Kerr, Project Officer, USEPA. It can be seen that, if the actual numbers are correct, Niagara Mohawk is consistently underestimating actual new electric heat as a % of new units, while NYSE&G is consistently overestimating such heating. The average of the two numbers is, however, very close to the actual. CDRPC's original estimate of these percentages used in the AQMA analysis is essentially the average of the NYSE&G and the N-M estimates except for 1990 which is not a year for which data is required under this contract. For the year 2000, CDRPC held to its 1990 and 1995 estimate of 80%. This can be expected to be below the average of the NYSE&G and N-M year 2000 estimates if they follow the same trends as in the past. The table below verifies the closeness of these CDRPC estimates to the average of the NYSE&G and N-M esti- mates . CDRPC ELECTRIC HEAT ESTIMATES VS AVERAGE NYSE&G, N-M ESTIMATE Year NYSE&G, N-M Average CDRPC 1975 29.56 30 1980 49.70 49 1985 62.94 65 1990 74.95 80 1995 82.77 80 New Dwelling Units/Cell - The program AIR27 takes the additional population to be housed in a cell for a future year, divides it by the average house- hold size for that county for the year and gets new housing units per cell for that year. It then multiplies these cells by the fractions electric and non-electric to get new dwelling per cell by fuel type for 1980, 1990 and 2000. This data is in file AIR28. Future RFR's - The CDRPC preliminary Regional Development Plan gives the expected additional acres of residential development for each Minor Civil Division through the year 2000. Program AIR29 finds the total additional dwelling units per Minor Civil Division through the year 2000. The RFR for 20 ------- new development in a Minor Civil Division is determined by dividing new housing units in an MCD by new residential land and comparing the result- ing density to the following RFR list developed by CDRPC from the RFR's for dwelling type in Volume 13 of the Guidelines: New Units/Acre Up to 7 7 to 20 20 to 49 Over 50 RFR 1.0 0.9 [0.9-(.011*(units/acre-20))] .51 Assumed Housing Type Single Family 2 to 4 Family 5 to 49 Family Over 50 Family Thus each city and town has a single RFR for future development. These numbers were calculated manually from the output of AIR29. Years 1975, 1985, 1995 - CDRPC has not made detailed projections to the five year level. Whenever information is needed for these mid-decade years, it is found by interpolation from the projection years surrounding it. In this case, it was assumed that at the cell level the number of new dwelling units for a mid-decade year could be considered the linear average of the two end points of its decade. Thus new growth to 1975 is 50% of new growth to 1980. This assumption seems superior to making many assumptions concerning varying rates of population growth, household formation, etc. Program AIR32 uses this assumption along with the fuel type assumptions listed earlier to yield new oil and electrically heated homes by cell for 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1995. This data is stored as AIR33. As with AIR23, the data in AIR33 is not easily understood at the cell level. Therefore, the following table of AIR33 summed to the county level was generated by a program called AIR33ADD. NEW HOUSEHOLDS SINCE 1970 BY FUEL TYPE BY COUNTY CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA COUNTY 1975 1980 1985 1995 Oil Electric Oil Electric Oil Electric Oil Electric Albany 4649 Rensselaer 2524 Saratoga 1547 Schenectady 1907 AQMA TOTALS 10627 1871 6673 1064 3794 637 2247 782 2743 4354 15457 6431 7396 3453 3842 2152 2298 2624 3401 14660 16937 13658 7048 28186 7285 3404 13619 4271 2072 8374 6346 3382 13544 31560 15906 63723 FUEL USE - Residential fuel use can be generated for each cell using fuel use factors from Volume 13 of the Guidelines and in the case of wood APTD- 1135. For a single family dwelling, these factors are: Coal 2.38 Ib./DD Oil .157 gal/DD Gas 26.6 ft. /DD Wood 3.4 Ib./DD DD = Degree Days 21 ------- For the Capital District AQMA, DD = 7,462, so for single-family dwell- ings, the average annual fuel requirements are: Coal 8.88 Tons/year Oil 1.17 x 10 ftGal/year Gas 0.199 x 10 Ft /year Wood 12.7 Tons/Year 3 Thus the fuel use for a cell for 1970 for oil = (1.08 x 10 gal) * (number of oil heat dwellings from AIR23) * (RFR for tract from AIR31). And, additional oil fuel use in future years is: (1.08 x 10 gal) * (num- ber of additional oil heat dwellings from AIR33) * (RFR for MCD from out- put of AIR29). In this manner the fuel use per grid cell by type of fuel for each target year can be estimated. These calculations are done by program AIR33P which has been run for the contract years 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1995. The outputs are stored as AIR75FUEL, AIR80FUEL, AIR85FUEL, and AIR95FUEL. Each of these data elements contains the census tract, CDRPC coordinate, TAZ, MCD, MCF of gas, 1000 gallons of oil, tons of coal, and tons of wood consumed for each of the 2152 cells in the AQMA for the indi- cated year. These fuel elements are difficult to understand at the cell level. Therefore, a program called FUELADD was written. This program sums the fuel elements by county, and calculates the emissions using AD-42 emission factors. 1975 RESIDENTIAL FUEL USE BY COUNTY CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA COUNTY MCF M/ T°NS T°NS GAS OIL COAL WOOD Albany 8,525 55,157 4,789 737 Rensselaer 3,708 25,986 1,681 991 Saratoga 1,077 7.440 335 0 Schenectady 4,901 31,156 2,870 330 AQMA TOTAL 18,211 119,741 9,675 2,058 1975 RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS BY COUNTY (TONS) CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA COUNTY Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady AQMA TOTAL G a PART. 43 19 5 25 92 s so. 2 3 1 0 1 5 0 PART. 69 32 9 39 149 i 1 SO / 1175 554 158 664 2551 C o PART. 24 8 2 14 48 a 1 SO, / 144 50 10 86 290 Woo PART. 4 5 0 2 11 d SO, z. 1 1 0 0 2 Tot PART. 140 64 16 80 300 a 1 SO, /_ 1323 606 168 751 2848 22 ------- 1980 RESIDENTIAL FUEL USE BY COUNTY CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA COUNTY M/CF GAS M/GAL OIL Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady AQMA TOTAL 8,525 3,708 1,077 4,901 18,211 57,333 27,324 8,156 32,052 124,865 TONS COAL 4,789 1,681 335 2,870 9,675 TONS WOOD 737 991 0 300 2,058 1980 RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS BY COUNTY CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA COUNTY GAS Part SO, OIL Part SO, COAL Part SO, WOOD TOTAL Part SO Part SO Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady AQMA TOTAL 43 19 5 25 92 3 1 0 1 - 72 34 10 40 156 1221 582 174 683 2660 24 8 2 14 48 144 50 10 86 290 4 5 0 2 11 1 1 0 0 2 143 66 17 81 307 1369 634 184 770 2957 COUNTY 1985 RESIDENTIAL FUEL USE BY COUNTY CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA M/CF GAS M/GAL OIL TONS COAL TONS WOOD Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady AQMA TOTAL 8,525 3,708 1,077 4,901 18,211 58,119 27,390 8,209 32,767 126,485 4,789 1,681 335 2,870 9,675 737 991 0 300 2,058 COUNTY 1985 RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS BY COUNTY CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA GAS OIL COAL WOOD TOTAL Part SO, Part SO, Part SO, Part SO,, Part SO, Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady AQMA TOTAL 43 19 5 25 92 3 1 0 1 5 73 34 10 41 158 1238 583 175 689 2694 24 8 2 14 48 144 50 10 86 290 4 5 0 2 11 1 1 0 0 2 144 66 17 82 309 1386 635 185 785 2991 23 ------- COUNTY 1995 RESIDENTIAL FUEL USE BY COUNTY CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA M/SF GAS M/GAL OIL Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady AQMA TOTAL 8,525 3,708 1,077 4,901 18,211 57,752 26,941 7,980 32,749 125,422 TONS COAL 4,789 1,681 335 2,870 9,675 TONS WOOD 737 991 0 330 2,058 1995 RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS BY COUNTY CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA COUNTY GAS Part. SO, COAL WOOD TOTAL Part. S02 Part. S02 Part. SO Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady AQMA TOTAL 43 19 5 25 92 3 1 0 1 5 72 34 10 41 157 1230 574 170 698 2672 24 8 2 14 48 144 50 10 86 290 4 5 0 2 11 1 1 0 0 2 143 66 17 82 308 1378 626 180 785 2969 The following emission factors current through Supplement 6 of AP-42 were used: FUEL Coal (Anthricite) Oil (#2) Gas Wood lOLb/Ton Coal 2.5Lb/MGal lOLb/1000 MCF 10 LB/1000 MCF S02 "S" IS 36S Lb/Ton Coal 1.7 142S Ib/MGal 0.3 0.6Lb/1000 MCF 1.5LB/Ton Wood These data files fulfill the workplan requirements for residential emis- sions as detailed in the June 18, 1975 work plan. 24 ------- COMMERCIAL - INDUSTRIAL - INSTITUTIONAL ALLOCATIONS There is no reliable way to generate fuel use estimates for these classes from the bottom-up using published information as there is for the residential class. Therefore, SMSA level area emissions are to be allocated to grid squares using the appropriate type of employment. Obviously, the employment must be adjusted for any point sources so that cells containing point sources are not also allocated area emissions for the employment covered by the point source. EMPLOYMENT DATA - CDRPC has employment data by category by TAZ as described in the attached 1975 Memo #501 Small Area Forecast. The first step was to organize the data in the existing file for AQMA use. A re- cent NYS DEC decision is to compute all non-residential area sources as industrial or commercial - institutional - government (hereafter called commercial for convenience). Industrial employment corresponds to CDRPC employment Group 3 or manufacturing (SIC's 19-39), while commercial em- ployment corresponds to CDRPC groups 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 (SIC's 40-50, 52-67, 70-86, 89-93 and 99) it should also include a part of CDRPC group 1; however, due to the small size of this group, its exclusion should not affect the allocations. LAND USE COUNT - Although TAZ's are chosen to be homogeneous; due to the very limited geographical extent of these uses, (Commercial 0.7%, Industrial 0.6%, and institutional 1.1% of regional land) it would be inaccurate to allocate a TAZ's employment evenly among the cells in the TAZ. Therefore, a manual count of industrial, commercial and institu- tional land use per cell for the AQMA from a 1" to 1 mile land use map was undertaken. The land was counted in hectares so the count for a cell was also the percent of the cell with that land use type. The results of this count are coded in AIR37 which gives the TAZ, cell ID, and percent commercial, institutional and industrial for each of the 2152 cells in the AQMA. EMPLOYMENT PER CELL - Computer program AIR42 allocated existing em- ployment by TAZ to cells based upon the land use counts in hectares for cells within the TAZ. Land use measurements are not perfect (many parcels of land are mixed use, but coded only as one use); therefore, in some TAZs there were no cells with land uses corresponding to the type of employment in the TAZ. In this case, the program allocated the employment evenly be- tween the cells in the TAZ. The output of this process is AIR45, a list of employment by appropriate group for each of the 2152 cells in the AQMA. 25 ------- POINT SOURCE ADJUSTMENT - Data file AIR45 gives total employment by group by cell. As mentioned in the introduction to this section, employ- ment associated with point sources must be subtracted out before this in- formation is useful for area emission allocation. The employment associ- ated with the greater than 10-ton year combustion point sources in the following table was manually subtracted out of file AIR45 and the result stored as AIR45AREA. COMBUSTION POINT SOURCES SUBTRACTED FROM AIR45 FACILITY LOG NO. 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010300 010300 010300 011800 011800 011800 011800 012200 012200 012200 012200 012200 0307 0014 0452 0427 0033 0429 0428 0506 0362 0490 0518 0451 0477 0489 0306 0512 0450 0364 0422 0416 0449 0516 0368 0471 0261 0332 0466 0345 0185 0305 0463 0298 0401 0333 0437 0457 0514 0458 NAME Agway Inc. Port of Albany Albany Felt Company Albany Garage Alumni Quadrangle Barvoets Associates Corp Bd. of Educ.Sch.Dist.Alb. Campus Power Plant OGS Cirilio Bros.Petrol-Alb. College of St. Rose DeWitt Clinton Downtown Campus Grand City Container Home Savings Bank Bldg. Hotel Wellington Killip Services Co. Inc. LaSalle School Mack Trucks Memorial Hospital N.Y.S. Dept.of Mental Hyg. NYS Dept. of Health Pacific Molasses Sheridan Steam PI St. Peters Hosp Star Textile Tobin Packing US VA Administration Abram Lansing School Cohoes Memorial Hospital Mohawk Paper Mills, Inc. D & H Loco Repair Shop St. Patrick Sch Watervliet Arsenal Watervliet H.S. Bethlehem Central School Dist Bethlehem Central School Elsmere Elem Feura Bush Filtration Plant Hamagrael 26 EMPLOYMENT TYPE I I C C I C C I C C C C C C C C I C C C I C C I I C C C I C C C C it C C C C C ALSO OVER 25 TONS/YEAR yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes ------- 012200 012200 012401 012401 012401 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012601 012603 012603 012603 012800 012801 012801 013000 013089 013400 013400 381400 381400 381400 381400 381700 381700 381700 381700 381700 381700 381700 381700 382400 383200 384400 421500 421500 421500 421500 421500 421500 421500 421500 0129 0455 0040 0122 0439 0339 0080 0425 0369 0393 0395 0388 0391 0353 0432 0433 0434 0461 0436 0467 0500 0285 0126 0117 0151 0509 0335 0460 0459 0042 0067 0190 0153 0167 0025 0192 0201 0202 0210 0169 0186 0122 0226 0235 0172 0161 0162 0188 0190 0197 0089 0213 No SI At Co Ra Al Co Ho: N. N. N. N. N. S. S. S. S. St S. Me Mo Wi Be Fo Ma Gu Gr Vo Vo GA Hu Va Wl Bl Ch Cl En En En Sa: St St Va Br Am As Co Ju Li Ni Sc Sc Noryl Products Sec I Slingerlands Elem C Atlantic Cement Co. Inc. I Coeymans Rlty Co., Inc. I Ravena Coeymans Selkirk Sch C Albany County Nursing Home C Coated Abrasive & Tape Div I Homart Development Co. C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Sch Dist //I C Colonie Sch Dist C Colonie Sch Dist C Colonie Sch Dist C Agnes School C Colonie Sch Dist //I C Menands School C Montgomery Ward C Williams Press I Bendix Friction Mat Div 1 Ford Motor Co. 1 Manning Paper Co. I Guilderland Central Sch C Griffen Lab C Voorheesville Elem Sch C Voorheesville High Sch C orp I Huyck Felt I Van Renss Sch C William Barnet & Son I Bio-Environ Eng Div (RPI) C Chevron Asphalt C Cluett Peabody & Co., Inc. I Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C Samaritan Hospital C St. Marys Hospital C Sterling Winthrop Res Ins Di I Van Rensselaer Manor C Brown Co. I American Coat Apron Laundry C Associated Linen Services Inc C Coyne Ind Laundry C Judicial Building C Linton High School C Niskayuna School Dist C Schenectady Chemicals I Schenectady Chemicals I yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes 27 ------- 012200 012200 012401 012401 012401 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012600 012601 012603 012603 012603 012800 012801 012801 013000 013089 013400 013400 381400 381400 381400 381400 381700 381700 381700 381700 381700 381700 381700 381700 382400 383200 384400 421500 421500 421500 421500 421500 421500 421500 421500 0129 0455 0040 0122 0439 0339 0080 0425 0369 0393 0395 0388 0391 0353 0432 0433 0434 0461 0436 0467 0500 0285 0126 0117 0151 0509 0335 0460 0459 0042 0067 0190 0153 0167 0025 0192 0201 0202 0210 0169 0186 0122 0226 0235 0172 0161 0162 0188 0190 0197 0089 0213 No SI At Co Ra Al Co Ho N. N. N. N. N. S. S. S. S. St S. Me Mo Wi Be Fo Ma Gu Gr Vo Vo GA Hu Va Wl Bi Ch Cl En En En Ba- St St Va Br Am As Co Ju Li Ni Sc Sc Noryl Products Sec I Slingerlands Elem C Atlantic Cement Co. Inc. I Coeymans Rlty Co., Inc. I Ravena Coeymans Selkirk Sch C Albany County Nursing Home C Coated Abrasive & Tape Div I Homart Development Co. C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Central Sch C Colonie Sch Dist //I C Colonie Sch Dist C Colonie Sch Dist C Colonie Sch Dist C Agnes School C Colonie Sch Dist //I C Menands School C Montgomery Ward C Williams Press I Bendix Friction Mat Div 1 Ford Motor Co. 1 Manning Paper Co. I Guilderland Central Sch C Griffen Lab C Voorheesville Elem Sch C Voorheesville High Sch C orp I Huyck Felt I Van Renss Sch C William Barnet & Son I Bio-Environ Eng Div (RPI) C Chevron Asphalt C Cluett Peabody & Co., Inc. I Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C Samaritan Hospital C St. Marys Hospital C Sterling Winthrop Res Ins Di I Van Rensselaer Manor C Brown Co. I American Coat Apron Laundry C Associated Linen Services Inc C Coyne Ind Laundry C Judicial Building C Linton High School C Niskayuna School Dist C Schenectady Chemicals I Schenectady Chemicals I yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes 27 ------- 421500 421500 421500 421500 422201 422201 422289 422400 422400 422400 422800 422800 422800 422800 422800 422800 422800 412400 412400 412400 412400 415489 0195 0193 0177 0036 0019 0187 0135 0020 0168 0155 0107 0179 0173 0174 0175 0204 0090 0132 0130 0126 0131 0124 Service Linen Supply Inc C St. Clares Hosp C Trustees Union College C General Electric Co I GSA Depot c Sr High School c Glenridge Hosp c Consolidated Diesel Elec Co. I Dept of Mental Hygiene C General Elec Res & Devel C Campbell Plastics Inc I Draper School c Mohonasen Central Sch C Mohonasen Central Sch C Mohonasen Central School C Schalmont HS C Schenectady Chemicals Inc I Karigon-Orenda Elem C Middle School A C Schenendehowa Cent Sch C Skano-Tesago Elem Sch C Silicone Prod Dept I yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes ALLOCATING BASE YEAR EMISSIONS - Once the employment associated with all point sources is subtracted out, the SMSA contains a total of 29,053 area source industrial employees. Thus the share of industrial area emis- sions for a cell in the AQMA = cell ind emp/SMSA ind emp. Similarly, for commercial, there are 150,865 area commercial employees in the SMSA and thus the share of area commercial emissions for a cell in the AQMA = cell com emp/SMSA com emp. In order to facilitate the necessary calculations, the data file AIR46EMP was generated from AIR45AREA. AIR46EMP is simply a list of the total industrial and commercial area employment per cell for 1974. The problems associated with multiple TAZ cells in the residential work also existed in this commercial industrial work, and AIR46EMP was manu- ally edited to include these other employees. PROJECTION OF FUTURE EMISSIONS - Future year emissions were calculated from base year emissions and growth (or decline) factors. In lieu of soph- isticated technological analysis, the assumption was made that emissions per employee remains constant over time. The result of this assumption is that for each point and area source, future emissions can be estimated from base year emissions if future employment is known. In order to make maximum use of existing data, the apportionment of future emissions was done in three steps. INDUSTRIAL POINT SOURCE: The SIC number is known for each point source. CDRPC's Technical Report 500-4 Population, Income and Employment Forecasts for the Capital District Region gives regionwide employment by sector for future years (Table 16 on page 41). These sectors were converted to SIC groups and the growth or decline rate for each SIC group to future years was computed. Next, it was assumed that each individual point source in- ------- dustry had the same growth or decline rate as that industry has on a regional basis. The result is a series of growth factors listed below. Note that as 1995 employment was not listed on Table 16, it is found by linear interpolation from projections of 1990 and 2000 employment. GROWTH RATE FOR EACH INDUSTRIAL POINT SOURCE LOG 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010100 010300 012200 012401 012401 012600 012603 012800 012801 012801 381400 381400 381400 381700 382400 384400 415489 421550 421500 421500 422400 422800 422800 FAG 0307 0014 0033 0506 0450 0449 0471 0261 0185 0129 0122 0040 0080 0467 0126 0117 0151 0042 0153 0067 0192 0122 0235 0124 0089 0213 0036 0020 0107 0090 NAME Agway Inc Port of Albany Albany Felt Company Barvoets Associates Corp Cirilio Bros. Petrol Mack Trucks Pacific Molasses Star Textile Tobin Packing Mohawk Paper Mills Noryl Products Sec Coeymans Rlty Co. Atlantic Cement Coated Abrasive & Tape Di Williams Press Bendix Friction Mat.Div Ford Motor Company Manning Paper GAF Corp William Barnet & Co Huyck Felt Cluett Peabody & Co Sterling Winthrop Res.Ins Brown Company Silicone Prod Dept. Schenectady Chemicals Schenectady Chemicals General Electric Consolidated Diesel Campbell Plastics Schenectady Chemicals 1980 1985 1995 2000 .7931 .8226 1.0204 1.0566 .9333 .7931 .8266 .7931 1.0238 1.0566 .7931 1.0417 1.0417 1.0204 1.0417 .9333 1.0238 1.0566 .8226 .8226 1.0238 1.0566 1.0238 1.0566 1.0566 1.0566 1.0000 .9333 .9400 1.0566 .6345 .7177 1.0612 1.1321 .8666 .6345 .7177 .6345 1.0476 1.1321 .6345 1.0694 1.0694 1.0612 1.0694 .8666 1.0476 1.1321 .7177 .7177 1.0476 1.1321 1.0476 1.1321 1.1321 1.1321 1.0104 .8666 .9000 1.1321 .4310 .5847 1.1531 1.2677 .8666 .4310 .5847 .4310 1.0833 1.2677 .4310 1.1111 1.1111 1.1531 1.1111 .8666 1.0833 1.2677 .5847 .5847 1.0833 1.2677 1.0833 1.2677 1.2677 1.2677 1.0312 .8666 .7700 1.2677 .3448 .5323 1.2041 1.3325 .8666 .3448 .5323 .3448 1.0952 1.3325 .3488 1.1250 1.1250 1.2041 1.1250 .8666 1.0952 1.3325 .5323 .5323 1.0952 1.3325 1.0952 1.3325 1.3325 1.3325 1.0417 .8666 .7000 1.3325 Applying the factors shown above to the base year employment for each company results in a projection of the total AQMA point source employment growing from 28,062 in 1975 to 28,997 in the year 2000. This is counter to the trend for all industries and indicates that these industries will con- tribute a greater air pollution load than would be suspected from an exam- ination of total industrial employment. In order to estimate area source employment, it is also necessary to consider industrial point sources in- side of the SMSA but outside of the AQMA. An identical process was fol- lowed and the following summarizes the results. 29 ------- INDUSTRIAL POINT SOURCE EMPLOYMENT BY LOCATION BY YEAR ALBANY-SCHENECTADY-TROY SMSA Inside AQMA Outside AQMA SMSA TOTAL 1975 1980 1985 1995 2000 28,062 2,108 30,170 27,869 2,071 29,940 28,011 2,039 30,050 28,687 2,030 30,717 28,997 2,006 31,003 INDUSTRIAL AREA SOURCES: CDRPC data file EMPLOYMENT70 was subtracted from file EMPZONE200-R to give the projected change in employment by TAZ for each employment group between 1970 and 2000. This data was compressed into the commercial-industrial breakdown and limited to AQMA TAZs. Addi- tionally, the corrections necessary to adjust for multiple TAZ cells were made. Next, the changes in point source employment developed above were added to or subtracted from the appropriate TAZs. The output of this largely manual process is a data element AIR44AQMA which contains the pro- jected changes in area source industrial and commercial employment for each TAZ in the AQMA through the year 2000. Total industrial employment is given in Table 15 of CDRPC report 500-4 referenced above. Total point source employment is given above, thus the total area source industrial employment for each contract year can be computed. CHANGES IN AREA SOURCE INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT Total Ind Emp Point Source Area Source Area Source Change Since 1975 % of Total Change ge 1975 57,115 28,062 29,053 0 1980 55,710 27,869 27,841 -1,212 1985 54,975 28,011 26,964 -2,089 1995 54,953 28,687 26,266 -2,787 2000 55,020 28,997 26,023 -3,030 0 40.00 68.94 91.98 100.00 If each cell in a TAZ is assumed to change the same percentage and direction as each other cell in the TAZ (a reasonable assumption due to the homogenity of a TAZ), then the cell level employment in a future year can be computed as follows: Additional Future Year Cell Empl. and Future Year Cell Emp. (Base Year Cell Emp) (TAZ Employment) * (Base Year TAZ Emp) (Chg.to Yr.2000) ;% 2000 chg. to future year) Base year cell emp + additional future year cell emp. Program AIR50 does this calucation for each of the 2152 cells in the AQMA for each projection year. The output is stored as AIR51. 30 ------- COMMERCIAL POINT SOURCE EMPLOYMENT: The commercial class of employ- ment is projected to grow by almost 100% by the year 2000. Yet, individ- ual point sources (schools, hospitals, shopping centers, etc.) should experience no additional heating loads, and the trend is towards most commercial employment locating in area type of sources. Therefore, it was decided to project all commercial point sources at the same level throughout the contract period. That is, no growth or decline in employ- ment or emissions. The above decision was made after examining trends in commercial con- struction. From the list of point sources, it can be seen that the most recently constructed commercial point source (over 25 tons/year) is Colonie Center (Homart Development Company) constructed in 1965. Such recent com- mercial ventures as Northway Mall and Mohawk Mall, office buildings such as the new Federal Building, the 855 Central Avenue complex, Executive Park and 50 Wolf Road, and even hospitals such as Leonard are all area sources due to the use of gas, distillate oil, or electric heat, or due to their size. These facilities are as big as anything expected to be built in the Region over the projection period. Therefore, the above assumption that there will be no new commercial point sources appears valid. COMMERCIAL AREA SOURCE EMPLOYMENT: Data file AIR44AQMA also includes the total change in commercial employment for each TAZ from the base year to 2000. The assumption that commercial point source employment is con- stant throughout the contract period means that no adjustments in AIR44- AQMA are necessary to account for any changes in point source employment. Therefore, the generation of future year cell level area source commercial employment estimates is: Future year = (Base year) (Cell Emp ) A future } Cell Emp (Cell Emp ) (Chg. to 2000) & 3 ' The % 2000 change to future year is computed as follows using informa- tion from Tables 16 and 17 of CDRPC's Report 500-4. 1975 1980 1985 1995 2000 Total Commercial 215,050 240,300 262,850 303,159 322,000 Employment Point Source 64,185 64,185 64,185 64,185 64,185 Employment Area Source 150,865 176,115 198,665 238,974 257,815 Employment Change Since 1975 0 25,250 47,800 88,109 106,950 % of Yr.2000 Chg. 0 23.61 44.69 82.38 100.00 These calculations were also done by program AIR50 and the results are stored in AIR51. 31 ------- COMPARISON OF AQMA TO SMSA - Programs TEST, TEST44 and TEST46 are used to obtain AQMA level summations of the data in files AIR51, AIR44- AQMA and AIR46EMP respectively. The outputs of these programs can be used to make comparisons between the AQMA and the SMSA. While these comparisons are not needed for any maintenance analysis, they are in- teresting and do serve to illustrate the reasonableness of the outputs of the sequence of programs described above. The following table con- tains these comparisons. COMPARISONS OF AQMA AND SMSA AREA SOURCE EMPLOYMENT 1975 1980 1985 1995 2000 AQMA Commercial 130,127 149,226 166,272 196,725 211,029 SMSA Commercial 150,865 176,115 198,665 238,974 257,815 AQMA aa a % of SMSA 86.25 84.73 83.69 82.13 81.85 AQMA Industrial 20,155 19,753 19,461 19,237 19,148 SMSA Industrial 29,053 27,841 26,964 26,266 26,023 AQMA as a % of SMSA 69.41 70.95 72.17 73.24 73.58 FUTURE YEAR AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS - CDRPC was originally to use the figures derived above to allocate given area source totals to the cell level. However, NYSDEC has been unable to provide the necessary indust- rial and commercial area source totals. Therefore, NYSDEC will have to use the data in AIR46EMP and AIR51 to allocate area source emissions. The specific procedure is to take the 1975 SMSA level commercial area source emissions and divide it by the 1975 SMSA level commercial area source employment (150,865). The resulting number is the area source commercial emissions per employee. This number is simply multiplied by the number of commercial employees in each cell for the year desired. This last number is obtained from AIR46EMP for 1975 and from AIR51 for 1980, 1985, 1995 and 2000. Industrial area source emissions are similarly found by dividing the SMSA level 1975 emissions by 29,053 and using the resulting emissions per industrial area source employee with the appropriate count of area source industrial employees per cell. In view of the lack of SMSA level area source commercial and indust- rial emission estimates for the base year, CDRPC feels that data files AIR46EMP and AIR51 complete the requirements of the contract with respect to commercial and industrial space heating emissions. 32 ------- TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS Auto and truck traffic on public roadways accounts for the vast major- ity of transportation related emissions. However, small amounts of emis- sions are concentrated at certain airports, railroad yards and the Port of Albany. PUBLIC ROADWAYS - CDRPC obtained the NYS Department of Transportation's air pollution emission runs for 1975, 1985 and 2000 from the Capital Dis- trict Transportation Committee. These runs give the emissions for each Traffic Analysis Zone for particulates but not SO . A major problem with the data is that the TAZs used for these runs are different from those cur- rently used for planning purposes by CDRPC and CDTC. Therefore, it was necessary to obtain a map of these zones and determine what DOT TAZ each AQMA cell was in. This information is stored as AIR55 which contains DOT TAZ, CDRPC TAZ, cell ID, census tract and MCD for each cell in the AQMA. Data element AIR56 contains the DOT emission data for 1975 and 1985 for each DOT TAZ. Program AIR57 allocates the particulate emissions to UTM cell, assum- ing that within a TAZ the emissions are evenly distributed. The program also estimates S0« emissions as .3833 of particulate emissions based on Table 3.1.1-1 of AP-42. Interpolation of this data to 1980 and 1995 was done by straight line projections of the emissions from NYS DOT. The out- put of this process is a data element called AIRAUTOCD. AIRPORTS - CDRPC report 200-3 Schenectady County Airport Environs Study contains estimates for aircraft emissions from the Schenectady County Air- port (CDRPC cells 032051 and 032052) for 1970 and 1990. The limited growth projected for the Schenectady Airport indicates that a straight line pro- jection through these years is reasonable. Therefore, the following emis- sions should be loaded into the airport's cells. SCHENECTADY COUNTY AIRPORT AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS (TONS/YEAR) 1975 1980 1985 1995 2000 Particulates 3.18 3.95 4.73 6.28 7.05 S02 2.62 2.66 2.70 2.78 2.82 For the Albany County Airport (CDRPC cells 042040, 042041 and 043040) emissions estimates were prepared using projected operations and fleet mix data prepared as part of the Albany County Masterplan work now underway by Parsons Brinkerhoff Quade and Douglas (PBQ&D), and emission factors from 33 ------- AP-42. xt should ba noted that as the masterplan study is still underway some estimates of the future facilities to be available at the airport had to be made, and that the emissions estimates to be prepared as a part of the masterplan study might be different than those estimated by CDRPC. It is expected that in any differences due to facility constraints, CDRPC's estimates would be higher than PBQ&D's. ALBANY COUNTY AIRPORT AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS (TONS/YEAR) 1975 1980 1985 1995 Particulates 21.28 23.53 25.99 38.70 S02 22.96 25.43 28.77 46.25 There are six other general aviation airports in the AQMA. They are characterized by short (less than 3,000 feet) often unpaved runways and cater to single engine piston aircraft. If it is assumed that each of these airports has 1000 LTO's or 2000 operations a year, the air pollution emissions based on AP-42 would be 20 Ibs. of particulates and 14 Ibs. of SO-. Therefore, emissions from these airports were not included in the allocation. RAILROAD YARDS - CDRPC is unable to obtain the railroad fuel use data necessary to estimate railroad emissions. However, NYS DEC has estimated railroad emissions for Albany, Rensselaer and Schenectady Counties. CDRPC has chosen to allocate these emissions as follows: ALBANY COUNTY - to the switching yard at Selkirk, CDRPC cells 040018 and 041017. TOTAL EMISSIONS 23.6 Tons Particulates, 53.8 Tons SO . RENSSELAER COUNTY - to the Amtrack facilities in Rensselaer, CDRPC cell 048029. Total Particulates 2.5 Tons, Total SO,-,, 5.7 Tons. SCHENECTADY COUNTY - to the Rotterdam Depot, CDRPC cell 027044. Total Particulates 1.2 Tons, Total SO , 2.8 Tons. Due to changing Federal and State policy towards railroads, it is difficult to project future railroad emissions. Therefore, CDRPC feels that NYS DEC's base year estimates should be used for future contract years until other data becomes available. PORT OF ALBANY - The Port of Albany is a deep water Port with a channel depth of thirty feet. In 1974, there were 120 reported vessel calls. Us- ing the assumptions on Page 5-23 of USEPA Document APTD-1135 Guide for Compiling a Comprehensive Emission Inventory of a three-day stay and 660 gallons of residual oil per day, the annual fuel consumption is 3 days X 660 gal/day X 120 ships = 237,600 gallons. Using the emission factor from Table 3.2, 3-1 of AP-42 for S02 of 27 lb/1000 gal, annual emissions are 6,415.2 Ibs. or 3.2 tons. 34 ------- For particulates, the emission factor is 1.04 Ib/hour so 120 ships X 3 days/ship X 24 hours/day X 1.04 Ib/hour = 8,986 Ibs. or 4.5 tons/ year. The Port is located in CDRPC cells 047027, 046026 and 046025. There- fore, the vessel emissions in the Port for each of these cells is 1/3 of the total, or 1.5 tons particulates, 1.1 tons S0?. 35 ------- INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS Industrial heating emissions are discussed in the section entitled Commercial-Industrial-Institutional Allocations. Base year industrial process emissions are all contained in DEC's AIR100 Emission Inventory File. For future years, these process emissions should be adjusted by the following growth factors based on 2-digit SIC groups. (Source Table 16 of CDRPC Report 5-0-4) INDUSTRIAL GROWTH FACTORS, CAPITAL DISTRICT AQMA SIC 1975 1980 1985 1995 2000 20 22 24 27 28, 29 21,23,25,26 30 33 34 35 36 37 31,32,38,39 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 .7931 .8226 .9212 1.0204 1.0566 1.0238 .9400 .8750 .9530 1.1837 .8085 .9333 1.0417 .6345 .7177 .6788 1.0612 1.1321 1.0476 .9000 .7000 .9444 1.3061 .7021 .8666 1.0694 .4310 .5847 .5546 1.1531 1.2677 1.0833 .7700 .5250 .9037 1.4592 .5851 .8666 1.1111 .3448 .5323 .5091 1.2041 1.3325 1.0952 .7000 .4500 .8889 1.5306 .5319 .8666 1.1250 INCINERATION EMISSIONS Incineration emissions are also contained in DEC's AIR100 Emission Inventory File. There is no reason to expect significant changes in incineration emissions over the projection period. Therefore, the data in DEC's AIR100 File should be used for the base and projection years. POWERPLANT EMISSIONS The only non-hydro powerplant in the AQMA is Niagara Mohawk's Glen- mont facility. Its emissions are included in DEC's Point Source File, and the Facility is expected to remain in operation at its current level throughout the projection period. Therefore, DEC's data should be used for the base and projection years. 36 ------- APPENDICES 37 ------- CDRPC PROJECT MEMORANDUM DATE: JUNE 1975 TYPE OF REPORT: TECHNICAL MEMO PROJECT TITLE: SMALL AREA FORECAST PROJECT NO.: 501 FUNDING SOURCE CONTRACT NO.: "701" Program (CPA-NY-02-00-1039) CONTRACT PERIOD: October 1, 1974 - June 30, 1975 Capital District Regional Planning Commission Executive Park Tower Stuyvesant Plaza Albany, New York 12203 38 ------- Capital District Regional June, 1975 Planning Commission SMALL AREA FORECASTS PURPOSE: The purpose of this project is to create 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 population and 1970 and 2000 employment (by SIC group) data bases by small areas that are consistent with the large area pro- jections in CDRPC's preliminary Regional Development Plan, a Consul- tation Document. These data files are to be stored in CDRPC's computer facilities for use in future projects. SMALL AREA: The first task was the choice of an appropriate "small area". Ideally, this would be a neighborhood no larger than a 1 km by 1 km UTM grid cell. Data at this level could be aggregated to any desired level for use. However, neighborhoods usually do not have well defined boundaries. Additionally, the smallest level for which substantial base year (1970 or 1973) data is available is the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ). TAZ's have the desirable traits of being smaller than any other common statistical unit (e.g. minor civil division or census tract), having boundaries that do not cross the boundaries of other common statistical units, having a degree of homogony in a given TAZ (i.e. approximating artificial neighborhoods) and of being smaller than a 1 km by 1 km UTM grid cell in urban areas. In view of these traits, the availability of population, land use and some employment data by TAZ for the base year and the fact that the limited scope of this project precluded generation of substantial amounts of new data, the TAZ was chosen as the small area. 39 ------- POPULATION: The 1970 population for each TAZ was obtained by adding up the census populations of each block within the TAZ. This work was part of that completed as the background for the RDP, and was not part of this project. The changes between 1970 and the year 2000 for each Minor Civil Division (MCD) were calculated from RDP projections. The apportionment of the MCD level changes to TAZ's was conducted as follows: The Regional Building Block year 2000 Preliminary Regional Development Plan (the preparation of which is described in CDRPC Technical Report 100-1 Methodology for the Preparation of Regional Development Plan Alternatives) was utilized to find the portion of the expected change for an MCD that a particular TAZ was expected to receive. The Taz was then allocated this portion of the MCD's 1970 to 2000 population change. This quantity was identified as "CHGPOP" (change in population). The use of this proportioning method and CHGPOP rather than the absolute population changes predicted for each TAZ was necessary because the limited number of quantized change possibilities presently allowed by the building blocks resulted in the plan both over and underestimating the year 2000 populations of the different MCD's. However, although the absolute numbers of population change indicated by the building blocks are not correct, the relative proportion of change and type of change for each TAZ are correct. Thus the use of the propor- tion of change for each TAZ by MCD gives a close estimate of the expected year 2000 population by TAZ. 40 ------- To find the 1980 and 1990 populations of each TAZ, the rates of population change for each decade for each of the five sub- regions described in the RDP was determined. The appropriate rate was then applied to the CHGPOP for each TAZ for each decade and the 1980 and 1990 populations obtained. This was completed using the computer program POPJOY attached in the appendix. As indicated in POPJOY, a slight modification of this approach was utilized for the Central Cities Subregion. This is because the Central Cities as a group are expected to lose population between 1970 and 1980, then they are expected to gain population after 1980. However, some TAZ's which are presently overcrowded or in the way of redevelopment, are expected to lose population between 1970 and 2000. Applying the negative growth rate for the Central Cities group to these TAZ's would result in them gaining population be- tween 1970 and 1980. This is not likely to happen, so the 1980 population for each TAZ in the Central Cities Subregion was deter- mined by multiplying the ratio of the Central Cities 1980 popula- tion to its 1970 population by each TAZ's 1970 population. The Central Cities 1990 TAZ populations were estimated in the same way as those of the other groups. The output of this process is a computer element named TOMPOP containing the census tract, TAZ number, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 populations and subregional group number for each TAZ. A copy of the information in this file is in the appendix of this document. EMPLOYMENT: At the beginning of this project, CDRPC had no employ- ment information by TAZ. Initial attempts to create such a file included running multiple linear regressions of MCD level land use 41 ------- against MCD level employment. While the correlations obtained were statistically quite good (R-Square - .96, or 96% of the var- iation in employment was explained by land use), they were not useful as the best predictor of employment at the MCD level was high density residential. Additionally, the constant was a negative number (-147). When the resulting equation was applied to the land use data, many rural towns came out with negative employments. Many modifications to the original regression were tried including doing separate regressions for each subregion and eliminating residen- tial land use as an independent variable. In no case was a good reg- ression obtained that did not result in many TAZ's with negative employment The search for an alternative employment file resulted in CDRPC Borrowing the Capital District Transportation Committee's file of employment by TAZ by 9 employment groups: Industrial Groups SIC Components 1 Agriculture, forestry 01-09, 10-14 mining 2 Construction 15-17 3 Manufacturing 19-39 4 Transportation, Communication 40-42, 44-49 Utilities 5 Finance, Insurance 60-67 6 Services 70, 72-73, 75-76, 78-82 84, 86, 88-89 7 Government 91-94, 99 8 Wholesale 50, 52 9 Retail 53, 59 ------- This data was not complete. Some of the omissions were: Self- employed people, farmers, small post offices, some employers of less than 25 people, certain school districts, etc. Additionally, the data came with the following conditions: The file will be returned when CDRPC has completed its analysis. No permanent copies of the file will be made. None of the file information will be released or published without NYSDOT approval. The file was corrected for omissions as follows. The first step was to allocate the self-employed people and unpaid family members. The 1970 census contained information on the number of self-employed persons and unpaid family members by census tract of residence. Since many of these people work at home or in adjacent offices, it was as- sumed that the number of self-employed people and unpaid family mem- bers working in a tract was the same as the number living in the tract. These people were allocated to the TAZ's in each tract on the basis of the population of each tract. The second step was to allocate farmers according to the amount of agricultural land in each tract. The number of farmers to be al- located was obtained by subtracting the agriculture, mining and for- estry employment on the CDTC file from the 1970 agriculture and mining employment from CDRPC Technical Report 500-4, Population, Income and Employment Forecasts for the Capital District Region. The employment for each school in the omitted school districts were then added to the appropriate TAZ. These employment figures were obtained from CDRPC Technical Report 500-1 School Districts in the Capital District Region. Having no information on the specific location and number of employees of any other omissions, the following allocation method was utilized. 43 ------- A) The total file employment for each municipality was obtained by adding up each TAZ in each municipality. This was compared to the MCD level figures in the RDP appendix and the number of employees not reported for each munici- pality was noted. B) The total file employment by each of the nine industry groups was computed by addition of each employment group for every TAZ. The 1973 employment by industry was ob- tained by interpolating between the 1970 and 1980 employ- ment figures in CDRPC Technical Report 500-4 Population. . . . The interpolation was done so that the total of the employments by industry equaled the total of the employ- ments by MCD or 291,630. C) A computer program was devised which printed out the number of employees per acre of land use for each TAZ and indicated when there was land use with no employment assoc- iated with it. The ratios used were: Commercial employment to commerical land use Service+government+fincance employment to institutional land use Manufacturing employment to manufacturing land use Transportation, Communication employment to transportation land D) The average uncounted employment per acre of unused land for each type of land use was calculated and this information combined with the total numbers of uncounted employees by group and uncounted employment by MCD was used along with land use information including CDRPC Tech- nical Report 500-2 Shopping Center and Office Building Development in the Capital District Region to manually allocate employment to each TAZ so that the municipal totals and industry group totals for the Region were main- tained. The output of this process was a listing of employment by in- dustry group by TAZ that was consistent with all known data. A sample page of this output with the TAZ and Census Tract identifi- cation removed as per our confidentiality agreement with NYSDOT is in the appendix to this document. For the year 2000, CDRPC has MCD level employment projections and Regional level industry group employment projections as well as UTM grid cell building block change information. In this case "CHGEMP" (change in employment) was calculated for each industry 44 ------- and each MCD. The building block changes were apportioned to each TAZ in an MCD as in the population work. Once this was completed, the Regional employment by industry group in the file was computed by addition of the number in each TAZ and differences between the industry totals from CDRPC Technical Report 500-4 Population. . . and those in the projected file were rectified by a manual correction process that maintained the correct MCD level employment totals. There are no MCD level employment projections for 1980 or 1990. These will be developed from the 1970 and 2000 employment files generated by this project. 45 ------- CHANGES DUE TO MULTIPLE CELL TAZ's TAZ IS INCLUDED IN TAZ TAZ IS INCLUDED IN TAZ 10002 10010 10011 10012 10020 10030 10031 10040 10041 10042 10043 10044 10045 10050 10053 10060 10061 10062 10110 10111 10112 10130 10131 10150 10171 10172 10210 10310 10392 10703 10704 11006 11100 11104 10000 10000 10000 10000 10013 10032 10032 10051 10051 10120 10051 10120 10051 10051 10051 10001 10001 10070 10055 10120 10151 10132 10132 10055 10170 10137 10203 10306 10391 10701 10700 11000 11101 11107 11105 20010 20011 20013 20031 20051 20060 20070 20074 40001 40010 40020 40031 40034 40035 40036 40041 40042 40043 40050 40051 40060 40061 40062 40063 40065 40066 40067 40071 40091 40092 40093 41010 11107 20012 20012 20012 20032 20033 20030 20071 20075 40000 40000 40000 40021 40033 40033 40032 40040 40040 40040 40040 40052 40040 40040 40064 40064 40064 40064 40064 40073 40094 40094 40094 41011 46 ------- |