EPA SOS/4-77-DOS
EMISSION
INVENTORY
CAPITAL DISTRICT
C NEVA/ YORK 3
AIR QUALITY
MAINTENANCE AREA
IV! AY I B *7 7
FINAL. REPORT
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
REGION II
AIR BRANCH: BfyViROMIVICrVTAt. PBOOBAM DIVISION
•B FHO«*»AL PLAZA
NEW YORK, NBW YORK IOOQ7
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EPA-902/4-77-002
May 1977
EMISSION INVENTORY
CAPITAL DISTRICT (NEW YORK) AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
by
Thomas W. Easterly
Capital District Regional Planning Commission
Albany, New York 12207
Contract No. 68-02-2314
Project Officer
George Kerr
Environmental Programs Division
Environmental Protection Agency
New York, New York 10007
CAPITAL DISTRICT REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION
79 North Pearl Street
Albany, New York 12207
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Injunctions on the reverse before coni^letinf;!
1 REPORT NO. 2.
EPA 90214-77-002
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
EMISSION INVENTORY
3 RECIF
5. REPO
CAPITAL DISTRICT (NEW YORK) AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREAS'PERF
7. AUTHOR(S)
THOMAS W. EASTERLY,
NEW YORK STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
8 PERF
CONSERVATION
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. PRO
CAPITAL DISTRICT REGIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION
79 NORTH PEARL STREET
ALBANY, NEW YORK 12207
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY REGION II
AIR BRANCH: ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS DIVISIO
26 FEDERAL PLAZA
NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10007
11. CON
68-
13. TYP
FIN
M 14. SPO
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
'lENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
RT DATE
ORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
DRMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
GRAM ELEMENT NO.
TRACT/GRANT NO.
02-2314
E OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
AL
MSORING AGENCY CODE
16. ABSTRACT
THIS PROJECT PROVIDES A DISAGGREGATED PARTICULATE AND SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSION INVENTORY
SUITABLE FOR USE IN BOTH BASE YEAR AND PROJECTION YEAR MODELING REQUIRED FOR THE CAPITA
DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA. THE ALLOCATION AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY IS
ESSENTIALLY THAT OF VOLUMES 7 AND 13 OF THE GUIDELINES FOR AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE
PLANNING AND ANALYSIS SERIES PUBLISHED BY USEPA.
THE PUBLISHED REPORT CONTAINS COUNTY AND AQMA LEVEL ESTIMATES OF RESIDENTIAL AND NON-
AUTOMOTIVE TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS FOR THE BASE AND PROJECTION YEARS. IT ALSO IN-
CLUDES THE EXPECTED GROWTH OR DECLINE OF COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS.
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
a. DESCRIPTORS
ALBANY- SCHENECTADY-TROY
CAPITAL DISTRICT
PARTICULATE MATTER
SULFUR DIOXIDE
AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE
EMISSION PROJECTIONS
18 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
AVAILABLE FROM NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMA-
TION SERVICE, 5285 PORT ROYAL ROAD,
SPRINGFIELD, VIRGINIA 22151
b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDE
19. SECURITY CLASS (This 1
UNCLASSIFIED
20. SECURITY CLASS (This f
UNCLASSIFIED
D TERMS c. COSATI Field/Group
It-port) 21. NO. OF PAGES
51
)age) 22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
11
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This air pollution report is issued by Region II, Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, to assist state and local air pollution control agencies
in carrying out their program activities. Copies of this report may be
obtained, for a nominal cost, from the National Technical Information
Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22151.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
the Capital District Regional Planning Commission, Albany, New York in
fulfillment of Contract No. 68-02-2314. This report has been reviewed by
the Air Branch, EPA and approved for publication. Approval does not sig-
nify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the
Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or com-
mercial products constitute endorsement of recommendation for use.
iii
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ABSTRACT
This project provides a disaggregated particulate matter and sulfur
dioxide emission inventory suitable for use in both base year and projec-
tion year modeling required for the Capital District Air Quality Mainten-
ance Area. The allocation and projection methodology is essentially that
of Volumes 7 and 13 of the Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Plan-
ning and Analysis series published by the United States Environmental Pro-
tection Agency.
The published report contains county and AQMA level estimates of res-
idential and non-automotive transportation emissions for the base and pro-
jection years. It also includes the expected growth or decline of the com-
mercial and industrial emissions. Actual commercial and industrial emis-
sions are not contained in this report due to possible changes in the New
York State Department of Environmental Conservation base year emission
estimates. UTM cell level data is stored in the files of the New York
State Department of Environmental Conservation.
Due to the limited growth projected for the Capital District and the
trend towards electric space heating, only the commercial area source
emissions are expected to show significant growth over the next 25 years.
This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 68-02-2314
by the Capital District Regional Planning Commission under the sponsor-
ship of the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. This report covers
the period May 1, 1976 to May 31, 1977, and work was completed as of
May 31, 1977.
iv
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword ill
Abstract Iv
List of Charts vi
INTRODUCTION 1
GENERAL INFORMATION
Cell Identification 1
Data Availability 2
Population and Economic Proj ections 2
RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS 12
Population by UTM Cell 12
Fuel Split
Relative Fuel Requirements 16
Other Years 16
Future Year Fuel Splits 17
Future RFR1s 20
Fuel Use 21
COMMERCIAL-INDUSTRIAL-INSTITUTIONAL ALLOCATIONS 25
Employment Data 25
Land Use Count 25
Employment per Cell 25
Point Source Adjustment 26
Allocating Base Year Emissions 28
Projection of Future Emissions 28
Industrial Point Source 28
Industrial Area Sources 30
Commercial Point Source Employment 31
Commercial Area Source Employment 31
Comparison of AQMA to SMSA 32
Future Year Area Source Emissions 32
TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS
Public Roadways 33
Airports 33
Railroad Yards 34
Port of Albany 34
INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS 36
INCINERATION EMISSIONS 36
POWERPLANT EMISSIONS 36
APPENDICIES 37
Technical Memo - Small Area Forecast 38
Changes due to Multiple Cell TAZs 46
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LIST OF CHARTS
Comparison of EDB and CDRPC Population Projections 3
Contents of Program and Data Files Used in This Contract 4
Heating Fuel Types by Year Built, Occupancy, Heating Equipment.... 13
Household Heating Fuel Type by County Portion 1970 16
Average Household Size by County 17
New Electric Heating Customers as % of Total New Electric
Customers 19
CDRPC Electric Heat Estimates vs Average NYSE&G and N-M Estimate.. 20
RFR's for New Construction 21
Residential Fuel Use and Emissions by County 1975, 1980, 1985,
and 1995 22
Combustion Point Sources Subtracted from AIR45 26
Growth Rate for Each Industrial Point Source 29
Industrial Point Source Employment by Location by Year 30
Changes in Area Source Industrial Employment 30
Comparison of AQMA and SMSA Area Source Employment 32
Schenectady County Airport Aircraft Emissions 33
Albany County Airport Aircraft Emissions 34
Industrial Growth Factors, Capital District AQMA 36
Changes due to Multiple Cell TAZs 46
VI
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CONTRACT NO. 68-02-2314
EMISSION INVENTORY BY UTM GRID CELL
CAPITAL DISTRICT (NEW YORK) AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
INTRODUCTION
The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation is required
to perform an analysis of the Capital District Air Quality Maintenance Area
to insure that the ambient air quality will be maintained at a level that
does not violate Federal Standards. Part of this analysis includes diffusion
modeling of the Region's air quality with proposed pollution sources in oper-
ation. In order to properly perform this diffusion modeling, an inventory of
air pollution emissions by UTM Grid Cell is required for the current year and
for any future years to be analyzed.
The Capital District Regional Planning Commission has generated popula-
tion land use and transportation data at the UTM Grid Cell level as part of
its ongoing comprehensive planning efforts. The purpose of this contract is
to transform CDRPC's data into the emission data required for input to the
diffusion model. This is being done for two pollutants: Particulate Matter
and Sulfur Dioxide.
GENERAL INFORMATION
CELL IDENTIFICATION - CDRPC does its computer planning work on the basis of
UTM Grid cells. However, CDRPC's numbering system is such that a point to
the south west of the Region is (0,0) and all numbers are less than 999, al-
lowing a six digit coordinate identification. The first three digit number
is the east-west number and the second is north-south. It is a simple mat-
ter to convert from CDRPC to UTM, however, as all of CDRPC's raw data is
stored by CDRPC ID, all products generated in this contract give the CDRPC
coordinate. When the data is combined for modeling, the following adjust-
ments should be made:
555 should be added to the first three digits to get UTM Easting;
4692 should be added to the second three digits to get UTM Northing.
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DATA AVAILABILITY - All computer programs and data files generated under
this contract have been delivered to NYSDEC in paper copy form. Addition-
ally, machine readable versions have been delivered to NYSDEC through the
use of a special CDRPC mass storage file named AIR. AIR. was established
by CDRPC and any data to be transferred is read into the AIR. file by CDRPC
and used by NYSDEC. Due to the large amount of data generated under this
project, DEC has asked CDRPC to store most data on computer tape to be re-
trieved, if necessary, at a future date. CDRPC has complied with this re-
quest.
A list of all programs and data files with a summary of their contents
is contained at the end of this GENERAL INFORMATION Section. This informa-
tion should allow interested persons to request copies of data elements or
programs for inspection as required under 40FR51, section 51.62.
A complete dump of all AIR. files is a 6" thick stack of over 2000
pages costing over $80.00 to print. Therefore, due to the limited useful-
ness of such a dump, only one copy of most data exists. These copies have
all been delivered to NYSDEC, and CDRPC does not intend to print such a
dump again. If copies of specific programs or data files are necessary for
the review of this work, they will be printed on request.
POPULATION AND ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS - When this project was initiated, CDRPC
stated its intent to base all projections on CDRPC's Preliminary Regional
Development Plan. The projections in the plan were consistent with Office
of Planning Services Regional projections.
Since that time, the NYS Economic Development Board (EDB) has come up
with new population projections (and by implication new economic projections)
that result in a 1.3% higher SMSA level population in the year 2000, but a
10% lower AQMA population. A more detailed comparison of the figures is
contained at the end of this subsection. CDRPC has not revised its Regional
Development Plan to correspond to EDB's projections. However, CDRPC is con-
sulting with its member counties during the plan refinement stage to arrive
at mutually acceptable population projections for the small areas in the
Region.
It is evident that the revised projections will be somewhere between
CDRPC's Plan populations and EDB's projected populations. However, no hard
numbers are available at this time. Therefore, CDRPC did all AQMA projec-
tion work with its Plan socioeconomic projections. It can be expected that
any revised population projections will result in a more dispersed develop-
ment pattern, and thus lower area source contributions to the hot spots.
Based on past experience, New York State can be expected to revise its
projections for the Capital District almost every year. (Since 1974 the
State has changed the Region's year 2000 population from 910,000 to 885,000
to 897,000). It is not practical or useful to redetail all of CDRPC's work
every year based on these marginal changes in the total population. There-
fore, the projections used in this report will be the most up to date ones
available from CDRPC until after the Regional Development Plan consultation
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process is complete, and the Plan is adopted.
COMPARISON OF CDRPC AND EDB COUNTY LEVEL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
1980
1970
Albany 287000
Rensselaer 153000
Saratoga 122000
Schenectady 161000
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
EDB
293000
160000
169000
158000
296000
164000
191000
157000
299000
168000
214000
159000
301000
175000
259000
162000
10 Year
% Growth
2.1
4.6
38.5
-1.9
1985
1990
2.0
5.0
26.6
0.6
2000
0.7
4.2
21.0
1.9
10 Year
CDRPC %
295500
162800
154700
166000
303700
168400
165500
171400
311900
174100
176200
176800
330000
180000
189000
186000
Growth
3.0
6.4
26.8
3.1
Total
Total
5.5
6.9
13.9
6.5
Total
5.8
3.4
7.3
5.2
Total
Difference %
+ 2500
2800
-14300
+ 8000
- 1000
+ 7700
+ 4400
-25500
+14400
- 1000
+12900
+ 6100
-37800
+17800
- 1000
+29000
+ 5000
-70000
+24000
-12000
0.9
1.8
-11.8
5.0
3.5
1.9
-12.7
5.9
5.1
- .8
-13.7
3.3
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CONTENTS OF PROGRAM AND DATA FILES USED IN THIS CONTRACT
Name
AIR1
AIR2
D - Data
P - Program
D
AIRS
D
AIR4
AIR5
AIR6
D
AIR7
Contents/Function
Sorts through CDRPC File BLDBLK to obtain a list of
the UTM cells in the communities in the AQMA. The
output is AIR2 described below.
A list of 2,143 cells in communities in the AQMA.
The information on each cell is: CDRPC cell coord-
inate, CDRPC TAZ number, CDRPC subregion (not used
in AQMA work), a 4-letter MCD name, and data not
used in AQMA work.
A list of the 401 TAZ's in the AQMA and their cur-
rent and projected populations. Information con-
tained is: CDRPC cell coordinate (for one cell in
each TAZ), CDRPC TAZ number, 1970 census population,
projected 1980, 1990 and 2000 populations.
Uses AIR2 and AIR3 to divide the TAZ population even-
ly among the cells in the TAZ for each year. Output
is AIR6 described below. AIR4 also indicates which
TAZ's from AIR3 are not assigned to any cells so that
the data may be manually edited.
This name was used for many scratch files of non-
permanent information. It contains no data not other-
wise accounted for.
This is the manually edited version of AIR6 contain-
ing all necessary hand corrections. This file con-
tains data for 2141 UTM cells. The data is: cell
coordinate, TAZ number, subregion (not used), 4-
letter name, estimated 1970 cell populated and pro-
jected cell populations for 1980, 1990 and 2000.
Scans a CDRPC copy of the Albany-Schenectady-Troy
SMSA public use sample tape to find 1970 census data
on tenure, heating equipment, year built, number of
units/unit and heating fuel used. This data is stored
in AIR8 described below.
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D - Data
Name P - Program
AIRS D
Contents/Function
A list of 2517 household records from the Albany-
Schenectady-Troy SMSA 1970 census. The data is in
the census code. The decoding information is (in
column order):
Tenure
Heating Equipment
Year Built
Units/Unit
Heating Fuel
0 Owner occupied
1 Coop or condominum
2 Rented for cash
3 No rent
4 Vacant
0 Steam or hotwater
1 Central warm air
2 Electric
3 Floor or wall furnace
4 Space heater with flue
5 Flueless space heater
6 Fireplace or stove
7 No heat
8 Not available
0 1969-1970
1 1965-1968
2 1960-1964
3 1950-1959
4 1940-1949
5 Before 1939
6 Not available
0 Single family detached
1 Single family attached
2 Two family
3 Three or four family
4 Five to nine family
5 Ten to nineteen family
6 Twenty to forty-nine family
7 Over fifty family
8 Mobile home
9 Not available
0 Piped Gas
1 Bottled Gas
2 Electric
3 Fuel Oil
4 Coal
5 Wood
6 Other
7 None
8 Not available
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Name
AIR9
D - Data
P - Program
AIR10
Contents/Function
A statistical package for social science cross-tab-
ulation program to obtain cross tabulation of heat-
ing fuel type with: number of units/unit, year
built, heating equipment and tenure. Also, other
cross-tabulations not used in this analysis. The
output is paper copy only. No machine readable ver-
sion of the output is available.
This data element is a machine readable copy for all
AQMA census tracts of the 1970 data in Table H-2 of
Report PHC(l)-4 Census Tracts Albany-Schenectady-
Troy, N.Y. Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area.
Information contained is: Tract ID, all year round
housing units, single family, 2-family, 3-4 family,
5 to 49 family, 50+ family, built 69-70, built 65-68,
built 60-64, built 60-59, built 40-49, built before
39, steam or hot water, warm air furnace, built-in
electric units, floor, wall or pipeless furnance,
other means or not heated.
AIR11
AIR12
Data element containing tract level heating for type
estimates. See AIR18 for method of generation.
Contains: Tract ID, Gas DU's, Electric DU's, Oil
DU's, Coal DU's, and Wood DU's.
Attached census tract identification to the cell
level population data in AIR6. Stores output as
AIR14.
AIR13
AIR14
AIR15 P
AIR16 P
A list of all 468 CDRPC TAZ's and the census tract
they are in.
A list of the 2141 cells and their estimated 1970
population and projected 1980, 1990 and 2000 popu-
lation. Contains: census tract, cell coordinate,
TAZ, 4-letter name, estimated 1970 population, pro-
jected 1980, 1990 and 2000 populations.
Sums the 1970 populations in AIR14 by census tract
for comparison with census tract figures. This pro-
gram allows hand-editing data to correct for multi-
ple tract cells. The AIR14 currently in the file
is the edited version. Output is AIR 20.
Sums tract level heating fuel estimates (AIR11) to
get AQMA totals for purposes of checking against
SMSA level data. No machine readable output.
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D - Data
Name P - Program
AIR17 D
AIR18
AIR19
AIR20
D
AIR21
AIR22
AIR23 D
AIR24 P
AIR25
Contents/Function
Output is the tract level summation of the disag-
gregated household information in AIR10. Used only
for checking with census tract book data.
Generates tract level heating fuel estimates from
three formulas based on the cross-tabulations in
AIR9 and the tract level data in AIR10. The output
is the average of the three formulas, and is stored
as AIR11.
A later verision of AIR17 - households by tract
for checking purposes.
A summation of the cell level population informa-
tion in AIR14. Gives population by tract for com-
parison with census tract book, also as data for
input to Program AIR22.
A modified output of AIR18. Gives tract name, total
households, and fraction or tract households heated
by gas, electric, oil, coal and wood. Used as input
to Program AIR22.
Computes total households by heating type by cell
for 1970. Method is use AIR20 and AIR21 to get avg.
household size in a tract. Use this figure on 1970
cell level population from AIR14 to get households/
cell. Apply tract level proportions from AIR10 to
this number to get cell level households by heating
fuel type. Output is AIR23.
Output of AIR22, estimation of 1970 residential heat-
ing fuel splits by cell for 1970. Contains: tract,
TAZ, cell ID, 4-letter name, Gas HH, Electric HH,
Oil HH, Coal HH, and Wood HH. It should be noted
that this cell level information is a mathematical
construction, and that the actual numbers for a cell
obtained by survey would likely be different.
A checking program. Sums AIR23 to the AQMA level for
comparison with both the SMSA level data, and that
generated by AIR16.
Operates on AIR14 to obtain projected population
change from 1970 to 1980, 1970 to 1990, and 1970 to
2000 by cell. The output is AIR26. This data was
not used in the submitted AQMA projections.
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D - Data
Name P - Program
AIR26 D
AIR26A D
AIR27 P
AIR28 D
Contents/Function
Output of AIR25. Not used in final projection work.
Contains tract, TAZ, cell ID, 4-letter name, pro-
jected change 1970 to 1980, 1970 to 1990, and 1970
to 2000.
A more sophisticated version of AIR26. AIR26A is
the output of Program AIR27 and is an estimate of
the population for future years that will not be
housed in households existing in 1970. This ac-
counts for both the "new" people from AIR26, and
those that will move from existing households due
to projected declines in household size.
Program that computes population capacity of exist-
ing households in future years due to declining
household sizes and then compares this population
to that predicted for the cell in the future years,
and prints the difference (i.e. the projected popu-
lation needing new households for the future year)
by cell. Output is AIR26A.
Operates on the data in AIR26A to develop predicted
new households by fuel type by cell for 1980, 1990
and 2000. The fuel split is determined by the method
discussed under Future Year Fuel Splits in this re-
prot. Output is AIR28.
For the 2118 cells with projected new households,
gives the tract, TAZ, cell ID, 4-letter name, and
new households for 1980, 1990 and 2000 for oil and
electric heat.
AIR29 P
AIR30 P
AIR31 D
Uses data in AIR28 to find predicted new households
to year 2000 for each minor civil division. A paper
print is obtained. This data is used with informa-
tion on predicted new land use. From CDRPC Regional
Development Plan to obtain new units/acre. This
data is used with the chart on page 10 of this re-
port to obtain future year RFR's for each minor
civil division.
Program that uses the census tract data on units/
unit from AIR10 and data from volume 13 of the
guidelines to calculate RFR's for 1970 for each
census tract. Output is AIR31.
List of tract level RFR's for 1970 computed by AIR30.
Contains: tract, 1970 tract households, Gas RFR,
Oil RFR, Coal RFR.
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D - Data
Name P - Program
AIR32 P
AIR33 D
AIR33P P
AIR34
AIR35
AIR36
AIR37
AIR38
AIR39
Contents/Function
Uses output of AIR28 and computes mid-decade num-
bers to meet contract requirements of data for 1975,
1985, and 1995. Output is AIR33.
New households since 1970 by cell by fuel type for
1975, 1980, 1985, and 1995. Contains: Tract, TAZ,
cell ID, 4-letter name and new electric and new oil
fueled households since 1970 for 1975, 1980, 1985,
and 1995.
Combines 1970 cell level data from AIR23, 1970 RFR
data from AIR31, predicted new households to future
years from AIR33, manually entered future RFR's from
AIR29, and fuel data from Volume 13 to produce out-
puts of fuel consumed for residential heating by
fuel type by cell for the contract years. Outputs
are AIR75 Fuel, AIR80 Fuel, AIR85 Fuel, and AIR95
Fuel. Note: These computations were done using
6,875 degree days.
A utility program that produces triple-spaced paper
copies of each tract, TAZ, cell ID and name combina-
tion. These copies are used for tabulating data
from maps.
A manually produced list of Cell ID's and actual
counts of hectares of commercial, institutional and
industrial land use from CDRPC's 1" to 1 mile 1973
land use map — only for multiple cell TAZ's.
A program to attach the information in AIR35 to a
list of all 2152 cells in the AQMA. Output is AIR37.
A list of TAZ and Cell ID for each cell with count-
ed land use for multiple cell TAZ's,
A program to sort through CDRPC data file TAZLND to
obtain a list of TAZ level measured land uses for
all TAZ's in the AQMA. The output is AIR39,
TAZ level land use in acres for AQMA contains: TAZ,
COMMI, COMM2, INOI, IN02, INST. Land Use for each
TAZ. For purposes of this work, commercial = COMMI
and COMM2, and industrial = INDI and IND2.
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D - Data
Name P - Program
AIR40 P
AIR41 D
AIR42 P
AIR43 P
AIR44 D
AIR44AQMA D
AIR45 D
AIR45AREA D
AIR46EMP D
Contents/Function
This program was to combine the data in AIR37 at
the cell level with that in AIR39 at the TAZ level
to get actual commercial, industrial and institu-
tional land use per cell. It was never successful-
ly completed and was not used in the AQMA analysis.
An incorrect output from AIR40 not used in this
analysis.
Takes CDRPC's 73/74 employment by ID classes by
TAZ and apportions it to cells in a TAZ based upon
the distribution of the corresponding land use as
counted in AIR39. Output is AIR45.
Takes CDRPC's year 2000 projected population by
TAZ and 73/74 population by TAZ and calculates the
change in employment by class by TAZ between the
base year and 2000. Output is AIR44.
Projected changes in employment by TAZ between 73/
74 and 2000 by class. Contains: TAZ, change in
industrial, transportation, finance, government,
services, wholesale, retail.
A version of AIR44 summed to two classes - indust-
rial and commercial/inst/government. Contains:
TAZ and change in industrial, commercial for only
area sources.
Cell level 73/74 employment estimates developed by
AIR42. Contains: Cell ID, TAZ, industrial, trans-
portation, finance, government, service, wholesale
and retail estimates by cell.
A version of AIR45 with all employment in the com-
bustion point sources identified in this document
subtracted out manually; also certain adjustments
were made to account for employment in sources
that fell into more than one cell. Contains: Cell
ID, TAZ, area source, industrial, transportation,
finance, government, service, wholesale and retail
employment estimates.
A simplified version of AIR45AREA containing only
the total industrial and commercial area source
employment per cell.
10
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D - Data
Name P - Program
AIR46TOTAL D
AIR46DIFF P
AIR46POINT D
AIR50 P
AIR51
D
AIR75FUEL
AIR80FUEL
AIR85FUEL
AIR95FUEL
AIR55
AIRS 6
AIR57
AIRAUTOCD D
Contents/Function
A simplified version of AIR45 containing only total
industrial and commercial employment by cell.
Subtracts AIR46EMP from AIR46TOTAL to get a list of
point source employments by commercial or industrial
by cell. Output is AIR46POINT.
Output of AIR46DIFF. A list of point source adjust-
ments to AIR46TOTAL (or AIR45) to get AIR46-EMP (or
AIR45 Area).
Computes future year area source commercial and in-
dustrial employment by cell as discussed on pages 20
and 21 of this report. Output is AIR51.
Output of AIR50. Estimated cell level future year
commercial and industrial area source employment.
Contains: Cell ID, TAZ, and industrial and commer-
cial area source employment for 1980, 1985, 1995 and
2000.
Outputs of AIR33P. Gives estimated cell level resi-
dential fuel use for indicated year by fuel type.
Contains: Tract, cell ID, TAZ, 4-letter name, mil-
lion cubic ft. gas, thousand gallons of oil, tons of
coal and tons of wood consumed in the cell for 6,874
degree days.
A list of the DOT TAZ, CDRPC TAZ, cell ID, 4-letter
name and census tract for each cell in the AQMA.
Generated manually from MAPS.
A list of the DOT TAZ and 1975 and 1985 TAZ particu-
late emissions (in lb/24 hours) from N.Y.S. DOT data
for each of the TAZ's in the AQMA.
Allocates the TAZ level particulate emission esti-
mates to the cell level, converts the lb/24 hour
data to tons/year, and estimates sulphur dioxide
emissions as 0.383 of the particulate emissions
(based on Table 3.11-1 of AP-42). Output is AIR75-
85 auto.
Estimated cell level mobile source particulate and
sulphur dioxide emissions for 1975, 1980, 1985, 1995
and 2000. Contains: DOT TAZ, CDRPC TAZ, Cell ID,
4-letter name, census tract, 75 particulates, 75
SQ , 80 particulates, 80SOL, 85 particulates, 85S02>
95 particulates, 95S02> 2000 particulates and 2000
S0~ for each cell.
11
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RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS
As of this date (November 30, 1976) NYSDEC has not been able to provide
CDRPC with county level area source inventories. Therefore, CDRPC has
computed residential emissions entirely from its own data sources and a
modification of the order 3 methodology from Guidelines for Air Quality
Maintenance Planning and Analysis Volume 13: Allocating Projected Emis-
sions to Sub-County Areas. The input data consisted of: the actual 1970,
and projected 1980, 1990 and 2000 populations by Traffic Analysis Zone; a
Traffic Analysis Zone to UTM grid conversion table; the Bureau of the Cen-
sus publication PHC (1)-A Census Tracts, Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.;
the Bureau of the Census Public Use Sample for the Albany-Schenectady-
Troy, N.Y. SMSA; unpublished State of New York Economic Development Board
population and household projections and internal CDRPC data. Each of
these data sources is discussed in detail where appropriate.
POPULATION BY UTM CELL - The first step in the residential emission
procedure was to obtain population by UTM cell for the years required for
AQMA work. This was done using two CDRPC data files and a computer pro-
gram. Data file AIR2 is an AQMA only copy of CDRPC's file BLDBLK listing
the CDRPC coordinate, TAZ number, sub-region, and Minor Civil Division as
well as certain macro level estimates of existing and future development
for each cell. Data file AIR3 is a copy of TAZPOP, developed as TOMPOP
and described in the attached 1975 technical memo #501 Small Area Fore-
cast lists the TAZ number and TAZ level population for the years 1970,
1980, 1990 and 2000. A CDRPC program AIR4 splits the TAZ level popula-
tions to the cell level using the fact that TAZ's were designed to be
homogeneous. Thus, if there are 10 cells in a TAZ, the population of each
cell is simply the TAZ level population divided by 10. The output of this
process is AIR6, a data file containing cell coordinate, TAZ number, and
cell population for 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 for each of the 2152 cells
in the AQMA.
There are a few cells that contain more than one TAZ, yet AIR4 can
match only one TAZ to a cell. The program therefore makes a list of TAZ's
not matched to cells and a hand edit of the data to include the populations
of these TAZ's is required. This edit is done directly on the data in AIR6
and the current version of AIR6 includes all necessary hand changes. A
list of the TAZ's included in the hand changes is in the appendix of this
document.
12
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FUEL SPLIT - The Census of Housing contains data on household heating fuel
use by county and certain cities. It would be inappropriate to apply heat-
ing fuel splits from the city or county level to all cells in the city or
county. Therefore, CDRPC developed a method of estimating heating fuel use
by census tract. Program AIR7 creates a data file (named AIRS) of 2517
households and their heating fuel use, number of units/unit, heating equip-
ment and year built from the Public Use Sample Tape. The public use sample
is a 1% selection of actual 1970 census returns with all name and address
information removed. The reason for creating this file is that number of
units/unit, heating equipment type and year built are all reported at the
census tract level, while heating fuel use is not.
The program AIR9 is an SPSS cross-tabulation of heating fuel type
against each of the other three data types.
The resulting tables were modified to account for areas where pipeline
gas is not available, and the only available gas is the more expensive LP
gas commonly called propane. The areas with no gas available were deter-
mined through discussions with Niagara Mohawk service representative (and
CDRPC Commissioner) Thomas McGrath. The resulting tables are:
HEATING FUEL USED VS YEAR BUILT PIPELINE GAS AVAILABLE
HEATING Built 1969 Built 1965 Built 1960 Built 1950 Built 1940 Before
FUEL and 1970 to 1968 to 1964 to 1959 to 1949 1940
Gas
Electric
Oil
Coal
Wood
43.3%
21.7%
35.0%
0%
0%
58.6%
8.6%
32.8%
0%
0%
57.0%
7.0%
36.1%
0%
0%
36.1%
0.8%
63.1%
0%
0%
33.5%
1.3%
63.5%
1.7%
0%
54.2%
1.0%
44.0%
0.8%
0%
HEATING FUEL VS YEAR BUILT, NO PIPELINE GAS
HEATING
FUEL
LP Gas
Electric
Oil
Coal
Wood
Built 1969
and 1970
40.4%
22.8%
36.8%
0%
0%
Built 1965
to 1968
35.9%
13.3%
50.8%
0%
0%
Built 1960
to 1964
33.3%
10.8%
55.9%
0%
0%
Built 1950
to 1959
33.1%
0.9%
66.0%
0%
0%
Built 1940
to 1949
26.9%
1.4%
69.8%
1.9%
0%
Before
1940
27.2%
1.5%
66.0%
1.2%
4.1%
HEATING FUEL VS OCCUPANCY PIPELINE GAS AVAILABLE
HEATING
FUEL
Gas
Electric
Oil
Coal
Wood
1-Family
42.9%
1.8%
54.7%
0.6%
0%
2-Family
68.0%
1.8%
29.9%
0.4%
0%
3-4 Family
58.6%
4.7%
35.3%
1.4%
0%
13
5-49 Family
42.1%
7.9%
50.0%
1.0%
0%
50+ Family
32.3%
0%
67.4%
0%
0%
-------
HEATING FUEL VS OCCUPANCY, NO PIPELINE GAS
HEATING
FUEL
LP Gas
Electric
Oil
Coal
Wood
1-Family 2-Family 3-4 Family 5-49 Family 50+ Family
28.8%
2.2%
65.4%
0.7%
2.9%
25.8%
4.1%
69.2%
0.9%
0%
34.1%
7.4%
56.3%
2.2%
0%
36.7%
8.5%
53.7%
1.1%
0%
34.4%
0%
65.6%
0%
0%
HEATING FUEL VS HEATING EQUIPMENT, PIPELINE GAS AVAILABLE
HEATING Steam or
FUEL Hot Water
Gas
Electric
Oil
Coal
Wood
42.3%
0%
57.0%
0.7%
0%
Warm Air Electric
52.3%
1.3%
45.9%
0.5%
0%
0%
100.0%
0%
0%
0%
Floor, Wall
or Pipeless
52.2%
0%
43.5%
4.3%
0%
Other
82.3%
0%
17.3%
0.4%
0%
HEATING FUEL VS HEATING EQUIPMENT, NO PIPELINE GAS
HEATING
FUEL
L.P. Gas
Electric
Oil
Coal
Wood
Steam or
Hot Water
14.4%
0%
84.6%
1.0%
0%
Warm Air Electric
23.4%
2.0%
73.8%
0.8%
0%
0%
100.0%
0%
0%
0%
Floor, Wall
or Pipeless
78.4%
0%
19.6%
2.0%
0%
Other
71.5%
0%
16.3%
0.3%
11.9%
The following AQMA towns have no pipeline gas available:
Albany County - Towns of Coeymans, New Scotland and Census Tract 146.05 in
the Town of Guilderland
Rensselaer County - Towns of Poestenkill, Sand Lake, 75% of Schaghticoke,
and 65% of Brunswick
Schenectady County - Town of Princetown, Census Tract 326.0 in the Town of
Rotterdam and Census Tract 325.01 in the Town of Glenville.
Thus, we can determine that while 46.2% of the Region's households heat
with piped gas, only 1.8% of the mobile homes are heated with piped gas.
From the output of AIR9, equations giving the number of dwelling units using
a given heating fuel type can be developed for each of the three data items
reported in the census tract book. Each of these three equations has some
flaw that makes it undesireable to use it alone for generating tract level
heating fuel uses. For example, each equation has one data choice that con-
14
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tains over 50% of the total sample. (These categories are single-family
detached, 54.1%; built before 1939, 56.4%; and steam or hot water heating
equipment, 50.3%).
It was felt by the CDRPC staff that while no single equation was
clearly superior to the other two, all had some strengths, and the heating
fuel types for a tract could reasonably be estimated by taking the average
of the estimates given by each of the three equations. The mechanics in-
volved were to build data file AIR10 containing tract number, total house-
holds, units in structure, year built and heating equipment from the tract
book. Then the program A1R18 was written to predict households by fuel
type for each tract by each method and to take the average of the three
equations. The total output of AIR18 was printed so that it could be man-
ually skimmed for any gross inconsistencies between formulas and the aver-
ages were written as data element AIR11. This process gave households by
fuel type by census tract. For AQMA work this information is required at
the UTM cell level.
No TAZ boundary crosses a census tract boundary. Therefore, each cen-
sus tract can be viewed as consisting of many TAZ's. Element AIR13 is list
of each TAZ with the number of the tract it is in. Program AIR12 attaches
this information to the adjusted cell level populations from AIR6 and the
aggregate information is stored in AIR14. As with AIR6, problems of lost
tracts occurred in densely developed areas where more than one tract was
located in a single UTM cell. These problems were addressed by manually
editing AIR11 to combine tract data so that each combined tract represented
a minimum of one entire UTM cell. Program AIR15 was used to check element
AIR14 by adding up the TAZ population data to the tract level for compari-
son with the census tract book. Program AIR16 checks element AIR11 by com-
puting total households by heating fuel type for the AQMA for comparison
with SMSA level data. The AQMA is smaller than the SMSA so the totals from
AIR16 should be less than the numbers in the tract book. The output of
AIR11 accounts for 92% of the gas, 91% of the electric, 89% of the oil, 98%
of the coal and 61% of the wood heating fuel in the SMSA.
Program AIR22 takes the information from the adjusted AIR11 and AIR14
and gives each cell a share of the tract households by fuel type propor-
tional to the ratio of the cells population to the total tract population.
This method assumes a constant fuel split in a tract, and as no better in-
formation is available the assumption is necessary. The output of this
program is AIR23 which gives the number of dwelling units using each fuel
type for each UTM cell for 1970.
The results of this process AIR23 contains data on over 2000 cells.
This information is so detailed, it is hard to check it for reasonableness.
Therefore, a program (AIR23ADD) was written to sum this information to the
county level. The results are presented below:
15
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HOUSEHOLDS BY HEATING FUEL TYPE BY COUNTY PORTIONS 1970
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
County
Total Gas Electric Oil Coal Wood
46,562 613 58
21,225 211 78
5,226 41 0
26,646 361 26
99,659 1,226 162
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
AQMA
97,192
42,841
11,382
54,197
205,612
47,609
20,294
5,702
25,930
99,535
2,350
1,033
413
1,234
5,030
RELATIVE FUEL REQUIREMENTS - Volume 13 of the Guidelines goes into great
detail over the fact that multiple unit buildings use less fuel per unit
than do detached single family dwellings. This effect is very important
to the Capital District AQMA as most dwelling units near the "hot spots"
are primarily multiple family units. The units in structure data from the
census tract book was used to arrive at RFR's for gas and oil for each
tract. The only problem in this process is that volume 13 breaks down the
census tract book's 5 to 49 class into three classes (i.e. 5 to 9, 10 to
19, 20 to 49). Data from the public use sample tape was used to determine
a composite RFR for the 5 to 49 unit group for each fuel type. The results
are coal .47, oil .721, gas .672. Program AIR30 uses information in data
file AIR11 and volume 13 of the Guidelines to compute an RFR for each tract
for 1970.
OTHER YEARS - The Process described above gives the data necessary to cal-
culate residential fuel use by UTM cell for 1970. However, the maintenance
analysis contract requires this information for the years 1975, 1980, 1985,
and 1995. As there is no published measured data for 1975 which is compar-
able to the 1970 Census of Housing, and since the years 1980, 1985 and 1995
are in the future, a method of projecting changes since 1970 was developed.
The first step is to subtract the population due to group quarters
from the cell level population contained in AIR14 for 1970, 1980, 1990 and
2000. It would have been desireable to do this for the 1970 work, however,
as the actual count of households per tract (instead of a number computed
from household size and population) was used for that work, the inclusion
of group quarters population in a tract made no difference.
The next step was to obtain estimates of average household sizes for
the future. The New York State Economic Development Board has published
projections of both population and numbers of households by county. Thus
for a given county the average household size in a future year is the pro-
jected population divided by the projected number of households. The re-
sults of this process are:
16
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AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY COUNTY
Year Albany Rensselaer Saratoga Schenectady
1970 3.053 3.255 3.389 3.038
1975 2.900 3.078 3.295 2.891
1980 2.738 2.963 3.130 2.772
1985 2.619 2.828 2.984 2.661
1990 2.513 2.754 2.892 2.607
1995 2.467 2.730 2.788 2.597
2000 2.408 2.651 2.755 2.531
Source: NYS EDB county level projections
The third step was to determine the number of inhabitants projected
to live in a cell that would not be housed in the number of housing units
currently in the cell. For example:
A cell in Albany County has 305 people in 1970, this is 100 housing
units. With declining household size, these same 100 housing units
would be expected to house 274 people in 1980, so 31 people would
need new housing units by 1980 if there was no change in the cells
population. Any changes to the cells total population between 1970
and 1980 would be added to or subtracted from this 31 people to get
the total number of people in the cell requiring new housing.
This work was done by a computer program called L (because of a key-
punch error) and the results — a list of the number of people needing new
housing in 1980, 1990 and 2000 by cell is data file AIR26A. This informa-
tion plus average household size allows us to project new dwelling units
per cell; but for emissions, a fuel split is necessary.
FUTURE YEAR FUEL SPLITS - Given present technology, the number of new
homes with coal or wood heat is significant. Additionally, no new natural
gas hook-ups are presently allowed, and there is no evidence to suggest that
this ban will end. Therefore, almost all new dwellings can be assumed to be
heated with oil or electricity.
The tables of heating fuel type versus year built obtained from the
cross tabulations of AIR9 show that the percentage of new residential dwel-
lings using electric heat has increased dramatically from less than 1% of
units built before 1960 to 22% of units built in 1969 and 1970. If this
trend continues, all new housing units will use electric heat before the
year 2000.
The only available projections of electric vs non-electric (assumed to
be oil) heating are those used by the electric utilities in the load fore-
casting section of their annual 149-b long-range plans submitted to the New
York State Public Service Commission. Their contention is that the easily
useable fuels (i.e. oil and gas) are becoming scarce and expensive, and that
electric utilities are much more able to use dirty fuels such as coal, dang-
17
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EXHIBIT 2 Location of Major Generating Additions
STLAWERENCE
MW(I99I)
OSWEGO 5
850 MW( 1976)
OSWEGO 6
850 MW( 1979)
I LAKE ERIE
850 MW( 1985)
I LAKE ERIE 2
850 MW( 1987)
9 MILE POINT 2
I080MW(I982)
STERLING
MW(I984)
CAYUGA
850MW0982)
PUMPED STORAGE 2
IOOOMW(I982)
GREENE COUNTY
I200MW(I984)
i HOMER CITY 3
325MW(I977)
V
TARGET YEAR OF INSTALLATION
UNIT RATING
MID HUDSON WEST I
1300 MW( 1989) [
MID HUDSON WEST 2 [
1300 MW (1991) 1
(
CORNWALL I-4
IOOOMW (1987)
CORN WALL 5-8
1000 MW( 1988)
MTA FOSSIL
700 MW (1982)
JAMESPORT I
II50MW(I983
JAMESPORT 2
1150 MW (1985
Legend
Pumped Storage Hydro
B on
B Coal
M Nuclear
INDIAN POINT 3
I033MW(I976)
NORTHPORT 4
386MW(I977)
ASTORIA 6
800 MW (1976)
I
820 MW( 1979)
SHOREHAM WEST I
I300MW(I990)
18
-------
erous fuels such as nuclear and hard to tap sources of energy such as hydro
and geothermal. This ability and the scarcity of clean fuels will overcome
the thermodynamic inefficiencies of present electric generation technology
and give electric heat a very large share of the new housing market, and a
reasonable share of the heating plant replacement market. It should be
noted that the 149-b Plans are internally consistent, and that sufficient
new generating capacity is contained in the Plans to meet the projected
loads from all new sources including new electric heating customers. Figure
1 of this report, which is Exhibit 2 of the 1976 149-b Plan, shows the loca-
tion of major generating additions planned through 1990. None are in the
Capital District AQMA.
To estimate the future electric vs non-electric fuel splits, the load
forecast projections of the two electric utilities serving the Capital Dis-
trict AQMA were examined in detail. These two utilities are: the Niagara
Mohawk Power Corporation which serves most of the AQMA, and the New York
State Electric and Gas Corporation.
NIAGARA MOHAWK - the forecasts of future electric heating for the N-M
Service Area is contained in Table 15 "APPLIANCE CONTRIBUTION TO KWH GROWTH"
on pages 216 and 217 of Volume I of the 1976 149-b Plan.
Year
1964
1966
1970
1974
1980
1990
1995
Total
Electric
Customers
944,143
972,864
1,057,280
1,117,457
1,224,900
1,369,700
1,421,500
% of
Customers
With Elec-
tric Heat
0.3
0.5
1.2
2.0
7.3
15.0
17.4
New York State Electric
// of
Customers
With Elec-
tric Heat
2,832
4,864
12,687
22,349
89,418
205,455
247,341
and Gas - '
// of
Customers
Since
1970
# of
New Elec-
tric Heat
Since 1970
// New
Electric
Heat as
% of New
Customers
9,662
76,731
192,768
234,654
60,177
167,620
312,420
364,220
16.06
45.78
61.70
64.43
ing for the NYSE&G Service Area is contained in Table VI. "Annual Satura-
tion of Electrically Heated Dwelling Units" on page 179 of Volume 1 of the
1976 149-b Plan.
Year
1965 456,879 0.43
1970 501,790 2.14
1975 557,000 6.20
1980 617,000 11.76
1985 671,000 19.80
1990 730,000 29.05
1995 780,000 37.44
Examination of these two tables gives the following table;
1,959
10,759
34,531
72,534
132,834
212,034
292,034
55,210
115,210
169,210
228,210
278,210
23,772
61,775
122,075
201,275
281,275
43.06
53.62
72.14
88.10
101.10
19
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EXPECTED % ELECTRIC HEAT IN "NEW" RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
(Since 1970)
Year NYSE&G N - M Actual*
1970 24.28 9.27 (years 66-70) 22%
1975 43.06 16.06 (1974) 30%
1980 53.62 45.78
1985 72.14 Missing Data
1990 88.20 61.70
1995 101.10 64.43
* 1970 Actual from Capital District Public Use Sample Tape, 1975, from
Telephone Survey by Dr. George Kerr, Project Officer, USEPA.
It can be seen that, if the actual numbers are correct, Niagara Mohawk
is consistently underestimating actual new electric heat as a % of new units,
while NYSE&G is consistently overestimating such heating. The average of the
two numbers is, however, very close to the actual.
CDRPC's original estimate of these percentages used in the AQMA analysis
is essentially the average of the NYSE&G and the N-M estimates except for
1990 which is not a year for which data is required under this contract. For
the year 2000, CDRPC held to its 1990 and 1995 estimate of 80%. This can be
expected to be below the average of the NYSE&G and N-M year 2000 estimates if
they follow the same trends as in the past. The table below verifies the
closeness of these CDRPC estimates to the average of the NYSE&G and N-M esti-
mates .
CDRPC ELECTRIC HEAT ESTIMATES VS AVERAGE NYSE&G, N-M ESTIMATE
Year NYSE&G, N-M Average CDRPC
1975 29.56 30
1980 49.70 49
1985 62.94 65
1990 74.95 80
1995 82.77 80
New Dwelling Units/Cell - The program AIR27 takes the additional population
to be housed in a cell for a future year, divides it by the average house-
hold size for that county for the year and gets new housing units per cell
for that year. It then multiplies these cells by the fractions electric
and non-electric to get new dwelling per cell by fuel type for 1980, 1990
and 2000. This data is in file AIR28.
Future RFR's - The CDRPC preliminary Regional Development Plan gives the
expected additional acres of residential development for each Minor Civil
Division through the year 2000. Program AIR29 finds the total additional
dwelling units per Minor Civil Division through the year 2000. The RFR for
20
-------
new development in a Minor Civil Division is determined by dividing new
housing units in an MCD by new residential land and comparing the result-
ing density to the following RFR list developed by CDRPC from the RFR's
for dwelling type in Volume 13 of the Guidelines:
New Units/Acre
Up to 7
7 to 20
20 to 49
Over 50
RFR
1.0
0.9
[0.9-(.011*(units/acre-20))]
.51
Assumed Housing Type
Single Family
2 to 4 Family
5 to 49 Family
Over 50 Family
Thus each city and town has a single RFR for future development.
These numbers were calculated manually from the output of AIR29.
Years 1975, 1985, 1995 - CDRPC has not made detailed projections to the
five year level. Whenever information is needed for these mid-decade
years, it is found by interpolation from the projection years surrounding
it. In this case, it was assumed that at the cell level the number of new
dwelling units for a mid-decade year could be considered the linear average
of the two end points of its decade. Thus new growth to 1975 is 50% of new
growth to 1980. This assumption seems superior to making many assumptions
concerning varying rates of population growth, household formation, etc.
Program AIR32 uses this assumption along with the fuel type assumptions
listed earlier to yield new oil and electrically heated homes by cell for
1975, 1980, 1985, 1990 and 1995. This data is stored as AIR33.
As with AIR23, the data in AIR33 is not easily understood at the cell
level. Therefore, the following table of AIR33 summed to the county level
was generated by a program called AIR33ADD.
NEW HOUSEHOLDS SINCE 1970 BY FUEL TYPE BY COUNTY
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
COUNTY
1975 1980 1985 1995
Oil Electric Oil Electric Oil Electric Oil Electric
Albany 4649
Rensselaer 2524
Saratoga 1547
Schenectady 1907
AQMA TOTALS 10627
1871 6673
1064 3794
637 2247
782 2743
4354 15457
6431 7396
3453 3842
2152 2298
2624 3401
14660 16937
13658 7048 28186
7285 3404 13619
4271 2072 8374
6346 3382 13544
31560 15906 63723
FUEL USE - Residential fuel use can be generated for each cell using fuel
use factors from Volume 13 of the Guidelines and in the case of wood APTD-
1135. For a single family dwelling, these factors are:
Coal 2.38 Ib./DD
Oil .157 gal/DD
Gas 26.6 ft. /DD
Wood 3.4 Ib./DD
DD = Degree Days
21
-------
For the Capital District AQMA, DD = 7,462, so for single-family dwell-
ings, the average annual fuel requirements are:
Coal 8.88 Tons/year
Oil 1.17 x 10 ftGal/year
Gas 0.199 x 10 Ft /year
Wood 12.7 Tons/Year
3
Thus the fuel use for a cell for 1970 for oil = (1.08 x 10 gal) *
(number of oil heat dwellings from AIR23) * (RFR for tract from AIR31).
And, additional oil fuel use in future years is: (1.08 x 10 gal) * (num-
ber of additional oil heat dwellings from AIR33) * (RFR for MCD from out-
put of AIR29). In this manner the fuel use per grid cell by type of fuel
for each target year can be estimated. These calculations are done by
program AIR33P which has been run for the contract years 1975, 1980, 1985,
and 1995. The outputs are stored as AIR75FUEL, AIR80FUEL, AIR85FUEL, and
AIR95FUEL. Each of these data elements contains the census tract, CDRPC
coordinate, TAZ, MCD, MCF of gas, 1000 gallons of oil, tons of coal, and
tons of wood consumed for each of the 2152 cells in the AQMA for the indi-
cated year.
These fuel elements are difficult to understand at the cell level.
Therefore, a program called FUELADD was written. This program sums the
fuel elements by county, and calculates the emissions using AD-42 emission
factors.
1975 RESIDENTIAL FUEL USE BY COUNTY
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
COUNTY MCF M/ T°NS T°NS
GAS OIL COAL WOOD
Albany 8,525 55,157 4,789 737
Rensselaer 3,708 25,986 1,681 991
Saratoga 1,077 7.440 335 0
Schenectady 4,901 31,156 2,870 330
AQMA TOTAL 18,211 119,741 9,675 2,058
1975 RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS BY COUNTY (TONS)
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
COUNTY
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
AQMA TOTAL
G a
PART.
43
19
5
25
92
s
so.
2
3
1
0
1
5
0
PART.
69
32
9
39
149
i 1
SO
/
1175
554
158
664
2551
C o
PART.
24
8
2
14
48
a 1
SO,
/
144
50
10
86
290
Woo
PART.
4
5
0
2
11
d
SO,
z.
1
1
0
0
2
Tot
PART.
140
64
16
80
300
a 1
SO,
/_
1323
606
168
751
2848
22
-------
1980 RESIDENTIAL FUEL USE BY COUNTY
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
COUNTY
M/CF
GAS
M/GAL
OIL
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
AQMA TOTAL
8,525
3,708
1,077
4,901
18,211
57,333
27,324
8,156
32,052
124,865
TONS
COAL
4,789
1,681
335
2,870
9,675
TONS
WOOD
737
991
0
300
2,058
1980 RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS BY COUNTY
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
COUNTY
GAS
Part SO,
OIL
Part SO,
COAL
Part SO,
WOOD
TOTAL
Part SO Part SO
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
AQMA TOTAL
43
19
5
25
92
3
1
0
1
-
72
34
10
40
156
1221
582
174
683
2660
24
8
2
14
48
144
50
10
86
290
4
5
0
2
11
1
1
0
0
2
143
66
17
81
307
1369
634
184
770
2957
COUNTY
1985 RESIDENTIAL FUEL USE BY COUNTY
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
M/CF
GAS
M/GAL
OIL
TONS
COAL
TONS
WOOD
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
AQMA TOTAL
8,525
3,708
1,077
4,901
18,211
58,119
27,390
8,209
32,767
126,485
4,789
1,681
335
2,870
9,675
737
991
0
300
2,058
COUNTY
1985 RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS BY COUNTY
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
GAS OIL COAL WOOD TOTAL
Part SO,
Part
SO,
Part
SO,
Part SO,, Part SO,
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
AQMA TOTAL
43
19
5
25
92
3
1
0
1
5
73
34
10
41
158
1238
583
175
689
2694
24
8
2
14
48
144
50
10
86
290
4
5
0
2
11
1
1
0
0
2
144
66
17
82
309
1386
635
185
785
2991
23
-------
COUNTY
1995 RESIDENTIAL FUEL USE BY COUNTY
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
M/SF
GAS
M/GAL
OIL
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
AQMA TOTAL
8,525
3,708
1,077
4,901
18,211
57,752
26,941
7,980
32,749
125,422
TONS
COAL
4,789
1,681
335
2,870
9,675
TONS
WOOD
737
991
0
330
2,058
1995 RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS BY COUNTY
CAPITAL DISTRICT AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREA
COUNTY
GAS
Part. SO,
COAL
WOOD
TOTAL
Part.
S02 Part. S02 Part. SO
Albany
Rensselaer
Saratoga
Schenectady
AQMA TOTAL
43
19
5
25
92
3
1
0
1
5
72
34
10
41
157
1230
574
170
698
2672
24
8
2
14
48
144
50
10
86
290
4
5
0
2
11
1
1
0
0
2
143
66
17
82
308
1378
626
180
785
2969
The following emission factors current through Supplement 6 of AP-42 were
used:
FUEL
Coal (Anthricite)
Oil (#2)
Gas
Wood
lOLb/Ton Coal
2.5Lb/MGal
lOLb/1000 MCF
10 LB/1000 MCF
S02 "S" IS
36S Lb/Ton Coal 1.7
142S Ib/MGal 0.3
0.6Lb/1000 MCF
1.5LB/Ton Wood
These data files fulfill the workplan requirements for residential emis-
sions as detailed in the June 18, 1975 work plan.
24
-------
COMMERCIAL - INDUSTRIAL - INSTITUTIONAL ALLOCATIONS
There is no reliable way to generate fuel use estimates for these
classes from the bottom-up using published information as there is for
the residential class. Therefore, SMSA level area emissions are to be
allocated to grid squares using the appropriate type of employment.
Obviously, the employment must be adjusted for any point sources so that
cells containing point sources are not also allocated area emissions for
the employment covered by the point source.
EMPLOYMENT DATA - CDRPC has employment data by category by TAZ as
described in the attached 1975 Memo #501 Small Area Forecast. The first
step was to organize the data in the existing file for AQMA use. A re-
cent NYS DEC decision is to compute all non-residential area sources as
industrial or commercial - institutional - government (hereafter called
commercial for convenience). Industrial employment corresponds to CDRPC
employment Group 3 or manufacturing (SIC's 19-39), while commercial em-
ployment corresponds to CDRPC groups 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 (SIC's 40-50,
52-67, 70-86, 89-93 and 99) it should also include a part of CDRPC group
1; however, due to the small size of this group, its exclusion should not
affect the allocations.
LAND USE COUNT - Although TAZ's are chosen to be homogeneous; due to
the very limited geographical extent of these uses, (Commercial 0.7%,
Industrial 0.6%, and institutional 1.1% of regional land) it would be
inaccurate to allocate a TAZ's employment evenly among the cells in the
TAZ. Therefore, a manual count of industrial, commercial and institu-
tional land use per cell for the AQMA from a 1" to 1 mile land use map
was undertaken. The land was counted in hectares so the count for a cell
was also the percent of the cell with that land use type. The results of
this count are coded in AIR37 which gives the TAZ, cell ID, and percent
commercial, institutional and industrial for each of the 2152 cells in the
AQMA.
EMPLOYMENT PER CELL - Computer program AIR42 allocated existing em-
ployment by TAZ to cells based upon the land use counts in hectares for
cells within the TAZ. Land use measurements are not perfect (many parcels
of land are mixed use, but coded only as one use); therefore, in some TAZs
there were no cells with land uses corresponding to the type of employment
in the TAZ. In this case, the program allocated the employment evenly be-
tween the cells in the TAZ. The output of this process is AIR45, a list
of employment by appropriate group for each of the 2152 cells in the AQMA.
25
-------
POINT SOURCE ADJUSTMENT - Data file AIR45 gives total employment by
group by cell. As mentioned in the introduction to this section, employ-
ment associated with point sources must be subtracted out before this in-
formation is useful for area emission allocation. The employment associ-
ated with the greater than 10-ton year combustion point sources in the
following table was manually subtracted out of file AIR45 and the result
stored as AIR45AREA.
COMBUSTION POINT SOURCES SUBTRACTED FROM AIR45
FACILITY
LOG NO.
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010300
010300
010300
011800
011800
011800
011800
012200
012200
012200
012200
012200
0307
0014
0452
0427
0033
0429
0428
0506
0362
0490
0518
0451
0477
0489
0306
0512
0450
0364
0422
0416
0449
0516
0368
0471
0261
0332
0466
0345
0185
0305
0463
0298
0401
0333
0437
0457
0514
0458
NAME
Agway Inc. Port of Albany
Albany Felt Company
Albany Garage
Alumni Quadrangle
Barvoets Associates Corp
Bd. of Educ.Sch.Dist.Alb.
Campus Power Plant OGS
Cirilio Bros.Petrol-Alb.
College of St. Rose
DeWitt Clinton
Downtown Campus
Grand City Container
Home Savings Bank Bldg.
Hotel Wellington
Killip Services Co. Inc.
LaSalle School
Mack Trucks
Memorial Hospital
N.Y.S. Dept.of Mental Hyg.
NYS Dept. of Health
Pacific Molasses
Sheridan Steam PI
St. Peters Hosp
Star Textile
Tobin Packing
US VA Administration
Abram Lansing School
Cohoes Memorial Hospital
Mohawk Paper Mills, Inc.
D & H Loco Repair Shop
St. Patrick Sch
Watervliet Arsenal
Watervliet H.S.
Bethlehem Central School Dist
Bethlehem Central School
Elsmere Elem
Feura Bush Filtration Plant
Hamagrael
26
EMPLOYMENT
TYPE
I
I
C
C
I
C
C
I
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
I
C
C
C
I
C
C
I
I
C
C
C
I
C
C
C
C
it C
C
C
C
C
ALSO OVER
25 TONS/YEAR
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
-------
012200
012200
012401
012401
012401
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012601
012603
012603
012603
012800
012801
012801
013000
013089
013400
013400
381400
381400
381400
381400
381700
381700
381700
381700
381700
381700
381700
381700
382400
383200
384400
421500
421500
421500
421500
421500
421500
421500
421500
0129
0455
0040
0122
0439
0339
0080
0425
0369
0393
0395
0388
0391
0353
0432
0433
0434
0461
0436
0467
0500
0285
0126
0117
0151
0509
0335
0460
0459
0042
0067
0190
0153
0167
0025
0192
0201
0202
0210
0169
0186
0122
0226
0235
0172
0161
0162
0188
0190
0197
0089
0213
No
SI
At
Co
Ra
Al
Co
Ho:
N.
N.
N.
N.
N.
S.
S.
S.
S.
St
S.
Me
Mo
Wi
Be
Fo
Ma
Gu
Gr
Vo
Vo
GA
Hu
Va
Wl
Bl
Ch
Cl
En
En
En
Sa:
St
St
Va
Br
Am
As
Co
Ju
Li
Ni
Sc
Sc
Noryl Products Sec I
Slingerlands Elem C
Atlantic Cement Co. Inc. I
Coeymans Rlty Co., Inc. I
Ravena Coeymans Selkirk Sch C
Albany County Nursing Home C
Coated Abrasive & Tape Div I
Homart Development Co. C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Sch Dist //I C
Colonie Sch Dist C
Colonie Sch Dist C
Colonie Sch Dist C
Agnes School C
Colonie Sch Dist //I C
Menands School C
Montgomery Ward C
Williams Press I
Bendix Friction Mat Div 1
Ford Motor Co. 1
Manning Paper Co. I
Guilderland Central Sch C
Griffen Lab C
Voorheesville Elem Sch C
Voorheesville High Sch C
orp I
Huyck Felt I
Van Renss Sch C
William Barnet & Son I
Bio-Environ Eng Div (RPI) C
Chevron Asphalt C
Cluett Peabody & Co., Inc. I
Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C
Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C
Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C
Samaritan Hospital C
St. Marys Hospital C
Sterling Winthrop Res Ins Di I
Van Rensselaer Manor C
Brown Co. I
American Coat Apron Laundry C
Associated Linen Services Inc C
Coyne Ind Laundry C
Judicial Building C
Linton High School C
Niskayuna School Dist C
Schenectady Chemicals I
Schenectady Chemicals I
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
27
-------
012200
012200
012401
012401
012401
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012600
012601
012603
012603
012603
012800
012801
012801
013000
013089
013400
013400
381400
381400
381400
381400
381700
381700
381700
381700
381700
381700
381700
381700
382400
383200
384400
421500
421500
421500
421500
421500
421500
421500
421500
0129
0455
0040
0122
0439
0339
0080
0425
0369
0393
0395
0388
0391
0353
0432
0433
0434
0461
0436
0467
0500
0285
0126
0117
0151
0509
0335
0460
0459
0042
0067
0190
0153
0167
0025
0192
0201
0202
0210
0169
0186
0122
0226
0235
0172
0161
0162
0188
0190
0197
0089
0213
No
SI
At
Co
Ra
Al
Co
Ho
N.
N.
N.
N.
N.
S.
S.
S.
S.
St
S.
Me
Mo
Wi
Be
Fo
Ma
Gu
Gr
Vo
Vo
GA
Hu
Va
Wl
Bi
Ch
Cl
En
En
En
Ba-
St
St
Va
Br
Am
As
Co
Ju
Li
Ni
Sc
Sc
Noryl Products Sec I
Slingerlands Elem C
Atlantic Cement Co. Inc. I
Coeymans Rlty Co., Inc. I
Ravena Coeymans Selkirk Sch C
Albany County Nursing Home C
Coated Abrasive & Tape Div I
Homart Development Co. C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Central Sch C
Colonie Sch Dist //I C
Colonie Sch Dist C
Colonie Sch Dist C
Colonie Sch Dist C
Agnes School C
Colonie Sch Dist //I C
Menands School C
Montgomery Ward C
Williams Press I
Bendix Friction Mat Div 1
Ford Motor Co. 1
Manning Paper Co. I
Guilderland Central Sch C
Griffen Lab C
Voorheesville Elem Sch C
Voorheesville High Sch C
orp I
Huyck Felt I
Van Renss Sch C
William Barnet & Son I
Bio-Environ Eng Div (RPI) C
Chevron Asphalt C
Cluett Peabody & Co., Inc. I
Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C
Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C
Enlarged City Sch Dist-Troy C
Samaritan Hospital C
St. Marys Hospital C
Sterling Winthrop Res Ins Di I
Van Rensselaer Manor C
Brown Co. I
American Coat Apron Laundry C
Associated Linen Services Inc C
Coyne Ind Laundry C
Judicial Building C
Linton High School C
Niskayuna School Dist C
Schenectady Chemicals I
Schenectady Chemicals I
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
27
-------
421500
421500
421500
421500
422201
422201
422289
422400
422400
422400
422800
422800
422800
422800
422800
422800
422800
412400
412400
412400
412400
415489
0195
0193
0177
0036
0019
0187
0135
0020
0168
0155
0107
0179
0173
0174
0175
0204
0090
0132
0130
0126
0131
0124
Service Linen Supply Inc C
St. Clares Hosp C
Trustees Union College C
General Electric Co I
GSA Depot c
Sr High School c
Glenridge Hosp c
Consolidated Diesel Elec Co. I
Dept of Mental Hygiene C
General Elec Res & Devel C
Campbell Plastics Inc I
Draper School c
Mohonasen Central Sch C
Mohonasen Central Sch C
Mohonasen Central School C
Schalmont HS C
Schenectady Chemicals Inc I
Karigon-Orenda Elem C
Middle School A C
Schenendehowa Cent Sch C
Skano-Tesago Elem Sch C
Silicone Prod Dept I
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
ALLOCATING BASE YEAR EMISSIONS - Once the employment associated with
all point sources is subtracted out, the SMSA contains a total of 29,053
area source industrial employees. Thus the share of industrial area emis-
sions for a cell in the AQMA = cell ind emp/SMSA ind emp. Similarly, for
commercial, there are 150,865 area commercial employees in the SMSA and
thus the share of area commercial emissions for a cell in the AQMA = cell
com emp/SMSA com emp. In order to facilitate the necessary calculations,
the data file AIR46EMP was generated from AIR45AREA. AIR46EMP is simply a
list of the total industrial and commercial area employment per cell for
1974. The problems associated with multiple TAZ cells in the residential
work also existed in this commercial industrial work, and AIR46EMP was manu-
ally edited to include these other employees.
PROJECTION OF FUTURE EMISSIONS - Future year emissions were calculated
from base year emissions and growth (or decline) factors. In lieu of soph-
isticated technological analysis, the assumption was made that emissions
per employee remains constant over time. The result of this assumption is
that for each point and area source, future emissions can be estimated from
base year emissions if future employment is known. In order to make maximum
use of existing data, the apportionment of future emissions was done in
three steps.
INDUSTRIAL POINT SOURCE: The SIC number is known for each point source.
CDRPC's Technical Report 500-4 Population, Income and Employment Forecasts
for the Capital District Region gives regionwide employment by sector for
future years (Table 16 on page 41). These sectors were converted to SIC
groups and the growth or decline rate for each SIC group to future years
was computed. Next, it was assumed that each individual point source in-
-------
dustry had the same growth or decline rate as that industry has on a
regional basis. The result is a series of growth factors listed below.
Note that as 1995 employment was not listed on Table 16, it is found by
linear interpolation from projections of 1990 and 2000 employment.
GROWTH RATE FOR EACH INDUSTRIAL POINT SOURCE
LOG
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010100
010300
012200
012401
012401
012600
012603
012800
012801
012801
381400
381400
381400
381700
382400
384400
415489
421550
421500
421500
422400
422800
422800
FAG
0307
0014
0033
0506
0450
0449
0471
0261
0185
0129
0122
0040
0080
0467
0126
0117
0151
0042
0153
0067
0192
0122
0235
0124
0089
0213
0036
0020
0107
0090
NAME
Agway Inc Port of Albany
Albany Felt Company
Barvoets Associates Corp
Cirilio Bros. Petrol
Mack Trucks
Pacific Molasses
Star Textile
Tobin Packing
Mohawk Paper Mills
Noryl Products Sec
Coeymans Rlty Co.
Atlantic Cement
Coated Abrasive & Tape Di
Williams Press
Bendix Friction Mat.Div
Ford Motor Company
Manning Paper
GAF Corp
William Barnet & Co
Huyck Felt
Cluett Peabody & Co
Sterling Winthrop Res.Ins
Brown Company
Silicone Prod Dept.
Schenectady Chemicals
Schenectady Chemicals
General Electric
Consolidated Diesel
Campbell Plastics
Schenectady Chemicals
1980
1985
1995
2000
.7931
.8226
1.0204
1.0566
.9333
.7931
.8266
.7931
1.0238
1.0566
.7931
1.0417
1.0417
1.0204
1.0417
.9333
1.0238
1.0566
.8226
.8226
1.0238
1.0566
1.0238
1.0566
1.0566
1.0566
1.0000
.9333
.9400
1.0566
.6345
.7177
1.0612
1.1321
.8666
.6345
.7177
.6345
1.0476
1.1321
.6345
1.0694
1.0694
1.0612
1.0694
.8666
1.0476
1.1321
.7177
.7177
1.0476
1.1321
1.0476
1.1321
1.1321
1.1321
1.0104
.8666
.9000
1.1321
.4310
.5847
1.1531
1.2677
.8666
.4310
.5847
.4310
1.0833
1.2677
.4310
1.1111
1.1111
1.1531
1.1111
.8666
1.0833
1.2677
.5847
.5847
1.0833
1.2677
1.0833
1.2677
1.2677
1.2677
1.0312
.8666
.7700
1.2677
.3448
.5323
1.2041
1.3325
.8666
.3448
.5323
.3448
1.0952
1.3325
.3488
1.1250
1.1250
1.2041
1.1250
.8666
1.0952
1.3325
.5323
.5323
1.0952
1.3325
1.0952
1.3325
1.3325
1.3325
1.0417
.8666
.7000
1.3325
Applying the factors shown above to the base year employment for each
company results in a projection of the total AQMA point source employment
growing from 28,062 in 1975 to 28,997 in the year 2000. This is counter to
the trend for all industries and indicates that these industries will con-
tribute a greater air pollution load than would be suspected from an exam-
ination of total industrial employment. In order to estimate area source
employment, it is also necessary to consider industrial point sources in-
side of the SMSA but outside of the AQMA. An identical process was fol-
lowed and the following summarizes the results.
29
-------
INDUSTRIAL POINT SOURCE EMPLOYMENT BY LOCATION BY YEAR
ALBANY-SCHENECTADY-TROY SMSA
Inside AQMA
Outside AQMA
SMSA TOTAL
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
28,062
2,108
30,170
27,869
2,071
29,940
28,011
2,039
30,050
28,687
2,030
30,717
28,997
2,006
31,003
INDUSTRIAL AREA SOURCES: CDRPC data file EMPLOYMENT70 was subtracted
from file EMPZONE200-R to give the projected change in employment by TAZ
for each employment group between 1970 and 2000. This data was compressed
into the commercial-industrial breakdown and limited to AQMA TAZs. Addi-
tionally, the corrections necessary to adjust for multiple TAZ cells were
made. Next, the changes in point source employment developed above were
added to or subtracted from the appropriate TAZs. The output of this
largely manual process is a data element AIR44AQMA which contains the pro-
jected changes in area source industrial and commercial employment for
each TAZ in the AQMA through the year 2000. Total industrial employment
is given in Table 15 of CDRPC report 500-4 referenced above. Total point
source employment is given above, thus the total area source industrial
employment for each contract year can be computed.
CHANGES IN AREA SOURCE INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT
Total Ind Emp
Point Source
Area Source
Area Source Change
Since 1975
% of Total Change
ge
1975
57,115
28,062
29,053
0
1980
55,710
27,869
27,841
-1,212
1985
54,975
28,011
26,964
-2,089
1995
54,953
28,687
26,266
-2,787
2000
55,020
28,997
26,023
-3,030
0
40.00
68.94
91.98
100.00
If each cell in a TAZ is assumed to change the same percentage and
direction as each other cell in the TAZ (a reasonable assumption due to
the homogenity of a TAZ), then the cell level employment in a future
year can be computed as follows:
Additional
Future Year
Cell Empl.
and
Future Year
Cell Emp.
(Base Year Cell Emp) (TAZ Employment)
*
(Base Year TAZ Emp) (Chg.to Yr.2000)
;% 2000 chg. to
future year)
Base year cell emp + additional future year cell emp.
Program AIR50 does this calucation for each of the 2152 cells in the
AQMA for each projection year. The output is stored as AIR51.
30
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COMMERCIAL POINT SOURCE EMPLOYMENT: The commercial class of employ-
ment is projected to grow by almost 100% by the year 2000. Yet, individ-
ual point sources (schools, hospitals, shopping centers, etc.) should
experience no additional heating loads, and the trend is towards most
commercial employment locating in area type of sources. Therefore, it
was decided to project all commercial point sources at the same level
throughout the contract period. That is, no growth or decline in employ-
ment or emissions.
The above decision was made after examining trends in commercial con-
struction. From the list of point sources, it can be seen that the most
recently constructed commercial point source (over 25 tons/year) is Colonie
Center (Homart Development Company) constructed in 1965. Such recent com-
mercial ventures as Northway Mall and Mohawk Mall, office buildings such
as the new Federal Building, the 855 Central Avenue complex, Executive
Park and 50 Wolf Road, and even hospitals such as Leonard are all area
sources due to the use of gas, distillate oil, or electric heat, or due to
their size. These facilities are as big as anything expected to be built
in the Region over the projection period. Therefore, the above assumption
that there will be no new commercial point sources appears valid.
COMMERCIAL AREA SOURCE EMPLOYMENT: Data file AIR44AQMA also includes
the total change in commercial employment for each TAZ from the base year
to 2000. The assumption that commercial point source employment is con-
stant throughout the contract period means that no adjustments in AIR44-
AQMA are necessary to account for any changes in point source employment.
Therefore, the generation of future year cell level area source commercial
employment estimates is:
Future year = (Base year) (Cell Emp ) A future }
Cell Emp (Cell Emp ) (Chg. to 2000) & 3 '
The % 2000 change to future year is computed as follows using informa-
tion from Tables 16 and 17 of CDRPC's Report 500-4.
1975 1980 1985 1995 2000
Total Commercial 215,050 240,300 262,850 303,159 322,000
Employment
Point Source 64,185 64,185 64,185 64,185 64,185
Employment
Area Source 150,865 176,115 198,665 238,974 257,815
Employment
Change Since 1975 0 25,250 47,800 88,109 106,950
% of Yr.2000 Chg. 0 23.61 44.69 82.38 100.00
These calculations were also done by program AIR50 and the results are
stored in AIR51.
31
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COMPARISON OF AQMA TO SMSA - Programs TEST, TEST44 and TEST46 are
used to obtain AQMA level summations of the data in files AIR51, AIR44-
AQMA and AIR46EMP respectively. The outputs of these programs can be
used to make comparisons between the AQMA and the SMSA. While these
comparisons are not needed for any maintenance analysis, they are in-
teresting and do serve to illustrate the reasonableness of the outputs
of the sequence of programs described above. The following table con-
tains these comparisons.
COMPARISONS OF AQMA AND SMSA AREA SOURCE EMPLOYMENT
1975 1980 1985 1995 2000
AQMA Commercial 130,127 149,226 166,272 196,725 211,029
SMSA Commercial 150,865 176,115 198,665 238,974 257,815
AQMA aa a % of
SMSA 86.25 84.73 83.69 82.13 81.85
AQMA Industrial 20,155 19,753 19,461 19,237 19,148
SMSA Industrial 29,053 27,841 26,964 26,266 26,023
AQMA as a % of
SMSA 69.41 70.95 72.17 73.24 73.58
FUTURE YEAR AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS - CDRPC was originally to use the
figures derived above to allocate given area source totals to the cell
level. However, NYSDEC has been unable to provide the necessary indust-
rial and commercial area source totals. Therefore, NYSDEC will have to
use the data in AIR46EMP and AIR51 to allocate area source emissions.
The specific procedure is to take the 1975 SMSA level commercial area
source emissions and divide it by the 1975 SMSA level commercial area
source employment (150,865). The resulting number is the area source
commercial emissions per employee. This number is simply multiplied by
the number of commercial employees in each cell for the year desired.
This last number is obtained from AIR46EMP for 1975 and from AIR51 for
1980, 1985, 1995 and 2000.
Industrial area source emissions are similarly found by dividing the
SMSA level 1975 emissions by 29,053 and using the resulting emissions
per industrial area source employee with the appropriate count of area
source industrial employees per cell.
In view of the lack of SMSA level area source commercial and indust-
rial emission estimates for the base year, CDRPC feels that data files
AIR46EMP and AIR51 complete the requirements of the contract with respect
to commercial and industrial space heating emissions.
32
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TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS
Auto and truck traffic on public roadways accounts for the vast major-
ity of transportation related emissions. However, small amounts of emis-
sions are concentrated at certain airports, railroad yards and the Port of
Albany.
PUBLIC ROADWAYS - CDRPC obtained the NYS Department of Transportation's
air pollution emission runs for 1975, 1985 and 2000 from the Capital Dis-
trict Transportation Committee. These runs give the emissions for each
Traffic Analysis Zone for particulates but not SO . A major problem with
the data is that the TAZs used for these runs are different from those cur-
rently used for planning purposes by CDRPC and CDTC. Therefore, it was
necessary to obtain a map of these zones and determine what DOT TAZ each
AQMA cell was in. This information is stored as AIR55 which contains DOT
TAZ, CDRPC TAZ, cell ID, census tract and MCD for each cell in the AQMA.
Data element AIR56 contains the DOT emission data for 1975 and 1985 for
each DOT TAZ.
Program AIR57 allocates the particulate emissions to UTM cell, assum-
ing that within a TAZ the emissions are evenly distributed. The program
also estimates S0« emissions as .3833 of particulate emissions based on
Table 3.1.1-1 of AP-42. Interpolation of this data to 1980 and 1995 was
done by straight line projections of the emissions from NYS DOT. The out-
put of this process is a data element called AIRAUTOCD.
AIRPORTS - CDRPC report 200-3 Schenectady County Airport Environs Study
contains estimates for aircraft emissions from the Schenectady County Air-
port (CDRPC cells 032051 and 032052) for 1970 and 1990. The limited growth
projected for the Schenectady Airport indicates that a straight line pro-
jection through these years is reasonable. Therefore, the following emis-
sions should be loaded into the airport's cells.
SCHENECTADY COUNTY AIRPORT AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS (TONS/YEAR)
1975 1980 1985 1995 2000
Particulates 3.18 3.95 4.73 6.28 7.05
S02 2.62 2.66 2.70 2.78 2.82
For the Albany County Airport (CDRPC cells 042040, 042041 and 043040)
emissions estimates were prepared using projected operations and fleet mix
data prepared as part of the Albany County Masterplan work now underway by
Parsons Brinkerhoff Quade and Douglas (PBQ&D), and emission factors from
33
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AP-42. xt should ba noted that as the masterplan study is still underway
some estimates of the future facilities to be available at the airport had
to be made, and that the emissions estimates to be prepared as a part of
the masterplan study might be different than those estimated by CDRPC. It
is expected that in any differences due to facility constraints, CDRPC's
estimates would be higher than PBQ&D's.
ALBANY COUNTY AIRPORT AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS (TONS/YEAR)
1975 1980 1985 1995
Particulates 21.28 23.53 25.99 38.70
S02 22.96 25.43 28.77 46.25
There are six other general aviation airports in the AQMA. They are
characterized by short (less than 3,000 feet) often unpaved runways and
cater to single engine piston aircraft. If it is assumed that each of
these airports has 1000 LTO's or 2000 operations a year, the air pollution
emissions based on AP-42 would be 20 Ibs. of particulates and 14 Ibs. of
SO-. Therefore, emissions from these airports were not included in the
allocation.
RAILROAD YARDS - CDRPC is unable to obtain the railroad fuel use data
necessary to estimate railroad emissions. However, NYS DEC has estimated
railroad emissions for Albany, Rensselaer and Schenectady Counties. CDRPC
has chosen to allocate these emissions as follows:
ALBANY COUNTY - to the switching yard at Selkirk, CDRPC cells 040018 and
041017. TOTAL EMISSIONS 23.6 Tons Particulates, 53.8 Tons SO .
RENSSELAER COUNTY - to the Amtrack facilities in Rensselaer, CDRPC cell
048029. Total Particulates 2.5 Tons, Total SO,-,, 5.7 Tons.
SCHENECTADY COUNTY - to the Rotterdam Depot, CDRPC cell 027044. Total
Particulates 1.2 Tons, Total SO , 2.8 Tons.
Due to changing Federal and State policy towards railroads, it is
difficult to project future railroad emissions. Therefore, CDRPC feels
that NYS DEC's base year estimates should be used for future contract
years until other data becomes available.
PORT OF ALBANY - The Port of Albany is a deep water Port with a channel
depth of thirty feet. In 1974, there were 120 reported vessel calls. Us-
ing the assumptions on Page 5-23 of USEPA Document APTD-1135 Guide for
Compiling a Comprehensive Emission Inventory of a three-day stay and 660
gallons of residual oil per day, the annual fuel consumption is 3 days X
660 gal/day X 120 ships = 237,600 gallons.
Using the emission factor from Table 3.2, 3-1 of AP-42 for S02 of 27
lb/1000 gal, annual emissions are 6,415.2 Ibs. or 3.2 tons.
34
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For particulates, the emission factor is 1.04 Ib/hour so 120 ships
X 3 days/ship X 24 hours/day X 1.04 Ib/hour = 8,986 Ibs. or 4.5 tons/
year.
The Port is located in CDRPC cells 047027, 046026 and 046025. There-
fore, the vessel emissions in the Port for each of these cells is 1/3 of
the total, or 1.5 tons particulates, 1.1 tons S0?.
35
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INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS
Industrial heating emissions are discussed in the section entitled
Commercial-Industrial-Institutional Allocations. Base year industrial
process emissions are all contained in DEC's AIR100 Emission Inventory
File. For future years, these process emissions should be adjusted by
the following growth factors based on 2-digit SIC groups. (Source
Table 16 of CDRPC Report 5-0-4)
INDUSTRIAL GROWTH FACTORS, CAPITAL DISTRICT AQMA
SIC
1975
1980
1985
1995
2000
20
22
24
27
28, 29
21,23,25,26
30
33
34
35
36
37
31,32,38,39
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
.7931
.8226
.9212
1.0204
1.0566
1.0238
.9400
.8750
.9530
1.1837
.8085
.9333
1.0417
.6345
.7177
.6788
1.0612
1.1321
1.0476
.9000
.7000
.9444
1.3061
.7021
.8666
1.0694
.4310
.5847
.5546
1.1531
1.2677
1.0833
.7700
.5250
.9037
1.4592
.5851
.8666
1.1111
.3448
.5323
.5091
1.2041
1.3325
1.0952
.7000
.4500
.8889
1.5306
.5319
.8666
1.1250
INCINERATION EMISSIONS
Incineration emissions are also contained in DEC's AIR100 Emission
Inventory File. There is no reason to expect significant changes in
incineration emissions over the projection period. Therefore, the data
in DEC's AIR100 File should be used for the base and projection years.
POWERPLANT EMISSIONS
The only non-hydro powerplant in the AQMA is Niagara Mohawk's Glen-
mont facility. Its emissions are included in DEC's Point Source File,
and the Facility is expected to remain in operation at its current
level throughout the projection period. Therefore, DEC's data should be
used for the base and projection years.
36
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APPENDICES
37
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CDRPC PROJECT MEMORANDUM
DATE: JUNE 1975
TYPE OF REPORT: TECHNICAL MEMO
PROJECT TITLE:
SMALL AREA FORECAST
PROJECT NO.:
501
FUNDING SOURCE
CONTRACT NO.:
"701" Program
(CPA-NY-02-00-1039)
CONTRACT PERIOD: October 1, 1974 - June 30, 1975
Capital District Regional Planning Commission
Executive Park Tower
Stuyvesant Plaza
Albany, New York 12203
38
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Capital District Regional June, 1975
Planning Commission
SMALL AREA FORECASTS
PURPOSE: The purpose of this project is to create 1970, 1980, 1990
and 2000 population and 1970 and 2000 employment (by SIC group) data
bases by small areas that are consistent with the large area pro-
jections in CDRPC's preliminary Regional Development Plan, a Consul-
tation Document. These data files are to be stored in CDRPC's
computer facilities for use in future projects.
SMALL AREA: The first task was the choice of an appropriate "small
area". Ideally, this would be a neighborhood no larger than a 1 km
by 1 km UTM grid cell. Data at this level could be aggregated to
any desired level for use. However, neighborhoods usually do not
have well defined boundaries. Additionally, the smallest level
for which substantial base year (1970 or 1973) data is available is
the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ). TAZ's have the desirable traits
of being smaller than any other common statistical unit (e.g. minor
civil division or census tract), having boundaries that do not
cross the boundaries of other common statistical units, having a
degree of homogony in a given TAZ (i.e. approximating artificial
neighborhoods) and of being smaller than a 1 km by 1 km UTM grid
cell in urban areas. In view of these traits, the availability of
population, land use and some employment data by TAZ for the base
year and the fact that the limited scope of this project precluded
generation of substantial amounts of new data, the TAZ was chosen
as the small area.
39
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POPULATION: The 1970 population for each TAZ was obtained by adding
up the census populations of each block within the TAZ. This work
was part of that completed as the background for the RDP, and was
not part of this project. The changes between 1970 and the year
2000 for each Minor Civil Division (MCD) were calculated from RDP
projections. The apportionment of the MCD level changes to TAZ's
was conducted as follows:
The Regional Building Block year 2000 Preliminary Regional
Development Plan (the preparation of which is described in CDRPC
Technical Report 100-1 Methodology for the Preparation of Regional
Development Plan Alternatives) was utilized to find the portion
of the expected change for an MCD that a particular TAZ was expected
to receive. The Taz was then allocated this portion of the MCD's
1970 to 2000 population change. This quantity was identified as
"CHGPOP" (change in population). The use of this proportioning
method and CHGPOP rather than the absolute population changes
predicted for each TAZ was necessary because the limited number of
quantized change possibilities presently allowed by the building
blocks resulted in the plan both over and underestimating the year
2000 populations of the different MCD's. However, although the
absolute numbers of population change indicated by the building
blocks are not correct, the relative proportion of change and type
of change for each TAZ are correct. Thus the use of the propor-
tion of change for each TAZ by MCD gives a close estimate of the
expected year 2000 population by TAZ.
40
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To find the 1980 and 1990 populations of each TAZ, the rates
of population change for each decade for each of the five sub-
regions described in the RDP was determined. The appropriate rate
was then applied to the CHGPOP for each TAZ for each decade and
the 1980 and 1990 populations obtained. This was completed using
the computer program POPJOY attached in the appendix. As indicated
in POPJOY, a slight modification of this approach was utilized
for the Central Cities Subregion. This is because the Central
Cities as a group are expected to lose population between 1970
and 1980, then they are expected to gain population after 1980.
However, some TAZ's which are presently overcrowded or in the way
of redevelopment, are expected to lose population between 1970 and
2000. Applying the negative growth rate for the Central Cities
group to these TAZ's would result in them gaining population be-
tween 1970 and 1980. This is not likely to happen, so the 1980
population for each TAZ in the Central Cities Subregion was deter-
mined by multiplying the ratio of the Central Cities 1980 popula-
tion to its 1970 population by each TAZ's 1970 population. The
Central Cities 1990 TAZ populations were estimated in the same
way as those of the other groups.
The output of this process is a computer element named TOMPOP
containing the census tract, TAZ number, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000
populations and subregional group number for each TAZ. A copy of
the information in this file is in the appendix of this document.
EMPLOYMENT: At the beginning of this project, CDRPC had no employ-
ment information by TAZ. Initial attempts to create such a file
included running multiple linear regressions of MCD level land use
41
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against MCD level employment. While the correlations obtained
were statistically quite good (R-Square - .96, or 96% of the var-
iation in employment was explained by land use), they were not
useful as the best predictor of employment at the MCD level was
high density residential. Additionally, the constant was a negative
number (-147). When the resulting equation was applied to the land
use data, many rural towns came out with negative employments.
Many modifications to the original regression were tried including
doing separate regressions for each subregion and eliminating residen-
tial land use as an independent variable. In no case was a good reg-
ression obtained that did not result in many TAZ's with negative employment
The search for an alternative employment file resulted in
CDRPC Borrowing the Capital District Transportation Committee's
file of employment by TAZ by 9 employment groups:
Industrial Groups SIC Components
1 Agriculture, forestry 01-09, 10-14
mining
2 Construction 15-17
3 Manufacturing 19-39
4 Transportation, Communication 40-42, 44-49
Utilities
5 Finance, Insurance 60-67
6 Services 70, 72-73, 75-76, 78-82
84, 86, 88-89
7 Government 91-94, 99
8 Wholesale 50, 52
9 Retail 53, 59
-------
This data was not complete. Some of the omissions were: Self-
employed people, farmers, small post offices, some employers of less
than 25 people, certain school districts, etc. Additionally, the
data came with the following conditions:
The file will be returned when CDRPC has completed its analysis.
No permanent copies of the file will be made.
None of the file information will be released or published
without NYSDOT approval.
The file was corrected for omissions as follows. The first step
was to allocate the self-employed people and unpaid family members.
The 1970 census contained information on the number of self-employed
persons and unpaid family members by census tract of residence. Since
many of these people work at home or in adjacent offices, it was as-
sumed that the number of self-employed people and unpaid family mem-
bers working in a tract was the same as the number living in the tract.
These people were allocated to the TAZ's in each tract on the basis
of the population of each tract.
The second step was to allocate farmers according to the amount
of agricultural land in each tract. The number of farmers to be al-
located was obtained by subtracting the agriculture, mining and for-
estry employment on the CDTC file from the 1970 agriculture and
mining employment from CDRPC Technical Report 500-4, Population,
Income and Employment Forecasts for the Capital District Region.
The employment for each school in the omitted school districts
were then added to the appropriate TAZ. These employment figures
were obtained from CDRPC Technical Report 500-1 School Districts
in the Capital District Region.
Having no information on the specific location and number of
employees of any other omissions, the following allocation method
was utilized. 43
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A) The total file employment for each municipality was
obtained by adding up each TAZ in each municipality. This
was compared to the MCD level figures in the RDP appendix
and the number of employees not reported for each munici-
pality was noted.
B) The total file employment by each of the nine industry
groups was computed by addition of each employment group
for every TAZ. The 1973 employment by industry was ob-
tained by interpolating between the 1970 and 1980 employ-
ment figures in CDRPC Technical Report 500-4 Population. .
. . The interpolation was done so that the total of the
employments by industry equaled the total of the employ-
ments by MCD or 291,630.
C) A computer program was devised which printed out the
number of employees per acre of land use for each TAZ and
indicated when there was land use with no employment assoc-
iated with it. The ratios used were:
Commercial employment to commerical land use
Service+government+fincance employment to institutional land use
Manufacturing employment to manufacturing land use
Transportation, Communication employment to transportation land
D) The average uncounted employment per acre of unused
land for each type of land use was calculated and this
information combined with the total numbers of uncounted
employees by group and uncounted employment by MCD was
used along with land use information including CDRPC Tech-
nical Report 500-2 Shopping Center and Office Building
Development in the Capital District Region to manually
allocate employment to each TAZ so that the municipal
totals and industry group totals for the Region were main-
tained.
The output of this process was a listing of employment by in-
dustry group by TAZ that was consistent with all known data. A
sample page of this output with the TAZ and Census Tract identifi-
cation removed as per our confidentiality agreement with NYSDOT is
in the appendix to this document.
For the year 2000, CDRPC has MCD level employment projections
and Regional level industry group employment projections as well
as UTM grid cell building block change information. In this case
"CHGEMP" (change in employment) was calculated for each industry
44
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and each MCD. The building block changes were apportioned to each
TAZ in an MCD as in the population work. Once this was completed,
the Regional employment by industry group in the file was computed by
addition of the number in each TAZ and differences between the
industry totals from CDRPC Technical Report 500-4 Population. . .
and those in the projected file were rectified by a manual correction
process that maintained the correct MCD level employment totals.
There are no MCD level employment projections for 1980 or 1990.
These will be developed from the 1970 and 2000 employment files
generated by this project.
45
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CHANGES DUE TO MULTIPLE CELL TAZ's
TAZ IS INCLUDED IN TAZ
TAZ IS INCLUDED IN TAZ
10002
10010
10011
10012
10020
10030
10031
10040
10041
10042
10043
10044
10045
10050
10053
10060
10061
10062
10110
10111
10112
10130
10131
10150
10171
10172
10210
10310
10392
10703
10704
11006
11100
11104
10000
10000
10000
10000
10013
10032
10032
10051
10051
10120
10051
10120
10051
10051
10051
10001
10001
10070
10055
10120
10151
10132
10132
10055
10170
10137
10203
10306
10391
10701
10700
11000
11101
11107
11105
20010
20011
20013
20031
20051
20060
20070
20074
40001
40010
40020
40031
40034
40035
40036
40041
40042
40043
40050
40051
40060
40061
40062
40063
40065
40066
40067
40071
40091
40092
40093
41010
11107
20012
20012
20012
20032
20033
20030
20071
20075
40000
40000
40000
40021
40033
40033
40032
40040
40040
40040
40040
40052
40040
40040
40064
40064
40064
40064
40064
40073
40094
40094
40094
41011
46
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