Transport and Fate of Gaseous Pollutants
             Associated with
                  the
         National Energy Program
               Prepared for
The Committee on Health and Ecological Effects
      of Increased Coal Utilization
             November 15, 1977
     By:  A. Paul Altshuller
          Warren Johnson
          John jNader
          Brand Niemann
          D. Bruce Turner
          William Wilson

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                           LIST OF FIGURES

 FIGURES                      TITLE                                     PAGE

 1         Locations of Upper Air leather Observation Stations            4

 2         Wind Direction Frequencies and Most Frequent                   5
             Wind Speed Ranges at 600m for the Summer Season

 3         Schematic Diagram of the Radial Concept of wind                7
             Direction-Extreme Persistence Short Range Dispersion

 4         Schematic Diagram of the Sector Concept of Wind                8
             Direction-Extreme Persistence Long-JRange Transport

 5         Locations of Selected Surface Weather Observation              9
             Stations

 6         Most Frequent Extreme Persistence Wind Sectors at             10
             Selected Locations

 7         Summer Season Prevailing wind Vectors at the Surface          H
             and ifost Frequent Wind Vectors at 600m during
             Extreme Persistence in the Surface Level Winds

 8         Calculated Air Mass Trajectories at 600 Meters above          13
             Ground Initiated on October 2, 1973 (top) and
             October 4, 1963 (bottom) in AQCRs Where Fossil
             Steam Plants Are the Predominant S02 Emission
             Source

 9         Summer Season Distribution of Atmospheric Stagnation          16
             (Four Days or More) 1936-1975

10         Average Tracks of Summer Season Stagnating Anticyclones       17

11         Schematic Diagram Stagnating Anticyclone and Frontal          18
             Systems Associated with Long Range Transport

12         Calculated Air Mass Trajectories at 600 Meters above          20
             Ground (top) and 150 Meters above Ground (bottom)
             Initiated in Counties Where Fossil Steam Plants Are
             the Predominant SOx Emission Source

13         Contours of Low Noontime  (EST) Visibilities Based on          21
             Selected Stations for October 15, 1963 (top) and
             October 19, 1963 (bottom)

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                       LIST OF FIGURES CONTINUED

FIGURES                        TITLES                            PAGES

14        Comparison of SO  "Hot Spot" Counties Under            47
            Scenarios REF-CAR and HCU-CAR in 1985 and
            1995 from the Impact Assessment Model

15        Schematic Diagram of the Teknekron Sector Box          60
            with Source Intensification of S02/MS04
            ADCR Model

16        Sector Box Model Predictions of S02 Locations          62
            Under REF-CAR in 1985

17        Sector Box Model Predictions of S02 Levels             63
            Under HCU-CAR in 1985

18        Sector Box Model Predictions of MS04 Levels            64
            Under REF-CAR in 1985

19        Sector Box Model Predictions of MS04 Levels            65
            Under HCU-CAR in 1985

20        Sector Box Predictions of S02 Levels Under             66
            REF-CAR in 1995

21        Sector Box Model Predictions of SO.. Levels             67
            Under HCU-CAR in 1995
22        Sector Box Model Predictions of MS04  Levels             68
            Under REF-CAR in 1995

23        Sector Box Model Predictions of MS04  Levels             69
            Under HCU-CAR in 1995

24        Sector Box Model Predictions of SOj Levels              71
            Under REF-CAR in 1995 for the Dallas,
            Kansas City, Athens,  Detroit and Washington
            Areas

25        Sector Box Model Predictions of SO2 Levels              72
            Under HCU-CAR in 1995 for the Dallas,
            Kansas City, Athens,  Detroit and Washington
            Areas

26        Sector Box Model Predictions of MSO.  Levels             73
            Under REF-CAR in 1995 for the Dallas,  Kansas
            City, Athens, Detroit and Washington Areas

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                      LIST OF FIGURES CONTINUED

FIGURES                       TITLES

27        Sector Box Model Predictions of hSO,  Levels
            Under HCU-CAR in 1S95 for the Dallas,
            Kansas City, Athens, Detroit and Washington
            Areas

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                         LIST OF TABLES
TABL£S                       TITLE

  1       Most Frequent Upper Air Weather Conditions in the
            Summer Season at 0615 EST at Selected Locations

  2       Mechanisms by Which Sulfur Dioxide is Converted          31
            to Sulfates

  3       Particulate Emission Rate for Various Control            35
            Systems

  4       Data on Particulate, SG^, and 304 Emissions from         39
            Oil- and Coal-Fired Combustion Sources'

  5       Numbers of Industries and Electric Utilities           50-52
            Ordered by FEA/ESECA to Convert to Coal and of
            Counties Highly Probable for the Siting of Coal-
            Fired Plants and the Number of These Used to
            Apportion TAMP (NEP) Emissions

  6       Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities          53
            in Ohio

  7       Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Com-             54
            bustion in Ohio

  8       Estimates of Maximum 24-Hour Concentrations from         57
            a Combustion Source (Oil versus Coal)

  9       Differences in the Maximum S02 and MSO^ Concen-          70
            trations Between the Reference and the High
            Coal Use (NEP) Scenarios in 1985 for 9
            Selected Locations

 10       Differences in the Maximum S02 and MSO. Concen-          75
            trations Between the Reference and High
            Coal Use (NEP) Scenarios in 1995 for 9
            Selected Locations

 11       Differences in the Maximum S0_ and MSO  Concen-          77
            trations under HCU-CAR in 1985 at the Hunt-
            ington and Pittsburgh Locations for Various
            S02 and MSO^ Conversion Rates

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              Transport and Transformation of Gaseous Aerosols
              Committee on Health ana Environmental  Effects  of
                        Increased Coal Utilization
I.  INTRODUCTION

     The National Energy Plan (NEP)  projects the need  for  substantial
increases in coal production and utilization by 1985.   There  is  a strong
commitment of the NEP to protect the environment and insure that pollution
control goals will be attained.   An independent committee  "Committee on
Health and Ecological Effects of Increased Coal Utilization"  has been
established by the Department of Energy to assess whether  the commitment
is adequate to provide protection of public health  and environmental
effects.  Both DOT (Department of Transportation) and  EPA  have substantial
involvements in the issues to be considered.  To aid in meeting  these
objectives, groups of papers have been prepared to  identify areas of
consensus and areas requiring further research.

     The present paper is concerned with the transport and fate  of gaseous
pollutants and their atmospheric reaction products  from coal-fired
facilities.  The physical, meteorological and chemical processes involving
dispersion, transport, transformations and removal  of  these pollutants
form the vital link between the pollutants as emitted  and  their  ultimate
impact on receptors.

     These processes determine the distribution of  pollutants between the
atmosphere and the surfaces of crops, forests, soil, lakes, and  materials
of construction and in a variety of other uses.  The same  processes determine
the airborne concentration and composition of gaseous  and  aerosol products
impacting on the health status of affected populations.

     Increased use of coal will have potentially adverse incremental effects
on a number of regions of the United States where coal is  already used
extensively as a fuel.  It's use in regions where other fuels have previously
been utilized may be anticipated to cause absolute  increases  in  the con-
centrations of the pollutants particularly associated  with burning of coal.
The effects may be on a local scale because of fall out of aerosols or
because of meteorological conditions causing plumes containing the emissions
to reach the ground relatively near the source.  Other meteorological
conditions may lead to movement of the plumes aloft over longer  distances.
Depending on the time interval and atmospheric conditions, substantial
conversions may occur of the originally emitted gaseous pollutants to
other gases or aerosols having increased potential  for adverse effects.

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                                  -2-
Examples are the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid  and other
sulfates or the conversion of nitric oxide to nitrogen dioxide  and to
nitrates.  The opportunities for such conversions are increased when the
emissions occur from tall stacks which should often reduce local effects,
but increase the potential for contributing to effects on a regional scale
because of longer range transport of pollutants.

     Finely divided sulfates are formed during combustion of sulfur-
containing fuels.  Atmospheric chemical reactions are even more important
sources of finely divided sulfates.   The finely divided  sulfates can be
transported for long distances because these particles are much less
readily removed from the atmosphere than sulfur dioxide  or nitrogen
dioxide.

     Sulfates formed during combustion can contribute to ground-level
sulfate concentrations near power plants, particularly under adverse
meteorological conditions.  However, this "locally" formed sulfate is
only an increment to the sulfate also present, but formed in the atmo-
sphere during transport of sulfur dioxide from more distant power plants,
as well as from industrial and urban sources.  Similar considerations
probably also apply to nitrates.

     Sulfates and nitrates are of particular concern in  health  effects,
acid precipitation and corrosion effects when present as acid sulfates
and nitric acid.  Finely divided sulfates in all chemical forms can
contribute significantly to visibility degradation and turbidity.  This
latter effect is of particular concern in the western U.S. where large
coal-fired sources can cause visibility to be reduced substantially.

     The following sections of this report are concerned first  with the
experimental evidence for long range transport of pollutants from sources,
particularly coal-fired sources.  The status of the measurement techniques
available and their use in characterizing the pollutants in the source,
plume and ambient atmosphere are considered.  The laboratory investigations
concerned with the chemical and physical mechanisms by which aerosols are
formed, particularly sulfur-containing aerosols,  is reviewed.   The
experimental studies of the concentrations and composition of the pollutants
as emitted from sources and in the subsequent behavior downwind in plumes
are discussed.  The current status of the various source and air quality
models available for use in predicting the distribution  of pollutant species
is also considered.  In addition, one particular modeling approach is applied
to provide a general indication of the potential impact  of the  NEP upon
air quality in the various geographic subdivisions of the U.S.  Finally, the
conclusions and pertinent recommendations are presented.

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                                  -3-


II.  EVIDENCE OF LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT

     A.  Meteorological Conditions

         There are five basic meteorological conditions that produce long-
range transport of pollutants like sulfates in tne atmosphere, namely:

     (1)  Prevailing winds at the typical altitudes (150m to 600m above
          ground) of steam electric and industrial plant plumes

     (2)  Strong and persistent winds near the ground

     (3)  Spatial correlation between winds at the surface or aloft
          between adjacent observation stations (trajectories)

     (4)  Vertical temperature variations that cause effluent plumes
          to be trapped in a well mixed layer that extends to the
          plume altitude or to be embedded in a stable layer that
          is isolated from the ground.

     (5)  Relative movements of adjacent high and low pressure weather
          systems

     The purpose of this section is to illustrate each of tnese five
basic meteorological conditions especially for a high emission density
region due to steam electric and industrial plants, namely the Ohio
River Basin, and to set the stage for the dispersion modeling approach
which uses one of these five basic conditions in estimating the potential
impact on the NEP upon air quality in 10 selected regions of the country.

     A.I.  Prevailing winds

           The prevailing winds at the typical altitudes of steam electric
and industrial plant plumes are available (Holzworth, 1974) at the 70
locations shown in Figure" 1.  The spacing between adjacent stations is
generally about 200km and the upper air observations are made at 12-hour
intervals.  The wind direction frequencies and most frequent wind speed
ranges at 600m for the summer season in Figure"2 for the Ohio River
Basin show the following significant features:

     (1)  The prevailing  (most frequent) wind direction in the northern
          and southern (Nashville) portions of the basin is westerly
          (toward the east) and the most frequent wind speed range is
          next to the highest (5.1 - 10ms-i);

     (2)  The frequencies of southerly  (toward the north)  winds at
          Salem and Peoria are nearly as great as for the prevailing
          (easterly) direction; and

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                                             -4-




                                                  Figurel

                               Locations of Upper Air Weather Observation Stations
                                                                                  CAR'
,N
    .315
AP
        HON.
                                              iSSM
                                  GRB,
                                                                        ALB,
            FNT.
     .LBF
                  ,OMA
               TOP.
       .DDC
                        .UMN
              .OKC
 .AMA
.MAP
                                                             .PIT
.PI A
                                                  .DAY
                                                        r.HTS
                                  .C50
                                         BNA.
                .FTW
                                                     AHN.
                                             MCM.
                         AYS.
                           .LXC
                                                               .TPA
                iRO
                                                                    MIA,
                                                                    -v
                                                                EYW ^' •'

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                     -5-
                         Flgure2
Wind Direction Frequencies and Most Frequent Wind Speed Ranges
               at 600m for the Summer Season
                                             WIN} SPEED RANGES
                                               0.1 - 2*5 meters/second
                                               126 -5JO meters/second
                                                5.1 - 1 0.0 meters/second
                                              <\QJO meters/second
                                                                     ::..:-£>:: ;.:.:K
                                                                  %0 I02C30405C
                                              WIND DIRECTION FREQUENCIES
                                              length of bar indicates % of time wind
                                              blows towards a given direction.
                                                        100
                                                                          390 Mttw

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                                    -6-
     (3)  The results for the mid-eastern portion of the region
          (Huntington) show the lowest frequencies and speed ranges
          probably due to the blocking effect on the winds aloft by
          the Appalachian Mountains and the frequent air mass stag-
          nation centered over this location.

     The Ohio River Basin region experiences a definite maximum in sulfate
levels during the summer season (Hidy, et al, 1976).   The hignest sulfate
levels in this region are found to the north of the lower Ohio River Basin
(west-central Indiana) and to the northeast of the upper Ohio River Basin
(north-central Pennsylvania) in agreement with these prevailing wind
features (Smith and Niemann, 1977).

     A.2.  Strong-persistent surface level winds

     Strong and persistent winds near the ground have been recognized
recently as being related to local sulfur dioxide (Gorr and Dunlap, 1977) and
regional sulfate (Smith and Niemann, 1977)  air quality problems.  Strong
persistent winds give rise to the concept of radial and sector flows for
long-range transport.  The methodology for deducing radial and sector  type
flows from 5-10 year periods of hourly weather data near ground level
are shown schematically in Figures 3 and 4, respectively (Smith and Niemann,
1977).  Figure 5 shows the locations of selected surface weather observation
stations in the eastern U.S. where this type of generalized persistence
analysis has been applied.  The most frequent directions of persistence
for 6 and 12 hours at these selected locations are shown as 45°  sectors
in Figure 6.  The 45° sector indicates the limit of wind direction variations
during the 6-12 hour period while the air mass stability remained near
neutral and the wind speeds remained within the specified range.  The  sectors
shown are all the same length because it was found that the most frequent
extreme persistence condition was associated with the moderate wind speed
range of 4 - 8ms~l at all locations.  The direction of the most frequent
persistence sectors in the Ohio River Basin are generally to the north
or northeast.  The specifics for the sectors at the 10 locations used  in
dispersion modeling will be discussed later in Section VTI.

     The vertical shear between surface winds during the most frequent
persistence conditions and the winds aloft has been analyzed for 7 upper
air stations in the northeastern U.S. to establish the correction to be
applied to the average speed and direction of the sectors.  Figure 12
shows there is a small shear between the most frequent wind direction
at 600m during extreme persistence in the surface level winds and the  sector
directions in Figure 7 such that any 20 - 30 degree difference on the
clockwise direction exists.  The conditions associated with extreme persistence
in surface winds are those that generally produce good vertical coupling
between the flow at all levels in the lower 500 - 1000m above ground.
Hoixt  (1974) has found that the vertical wind direction shear is smallest
under strong wind conditions and to the west of the center of the high
pressure cell.

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                                   -7-
                              Figure  3

           Schematic Diagram of the Radial  Concept of Wind
        Direction-Extreme  Persistence Short Ranqe Dispersion
16-Point
Wind Direction
Compass

             WNW

Strict Persistence
            •  w
              wsw
                         NNW
NW
                  sw
                             Relaxed Persistence

                             ENE
                                                 ESE
                         ssw
                  SSE
                STRICT PERSISTENCE (22.5° DIRECTION)
  Hours           '

  Observation Period —


  Winds*          -H
Stability
Class
Hours of
Persistence

Hours
Average
Speed x
Hours
Idealized
Trajectory
D DODO DO
0 123* 56
•Direction Wind is Going Toward and Length Proportional to Speed
0 1234 56



                                                                 Teknekron Inc.

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                                                    -8-

                                            Figure 4

                      Schematic  Diaorafn of  the Sector Concept of Wind
                     Direction-Extreme  Persistence Lono-Ranae Transport
jlaxed Persistence
     Sector
      (45°)
        N
Steadily Veering
Wind Direction,
No Turbulence, and
Very Flat Terrain
                                                                   Unsteadily Changing
                                                                   Wind Direction,
                                                                   Turbulence, and
                                                                   Flat Terrain
                                                                   Unsteadily Changing
                                                                   Wind Direction,
                                                                   Turbulence, and
                                                                   Moderately Rough
                                                                   Terrain
                                                                                    Teknekron, Inc.

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                                    -9-
                    Locations of Selected Surface Weather Observation Stations
                                   5SM
       MSP.
           .OSM
         ,MKC
.OKC
                                    .SYR
                                                             ALB
                                  FNT.
                      Mt-
                                                        • IPT
              UT«
   .DFW
                      .PIA
                       ,SPI
         FWA.
                             >lr4O.
                                         .CMH
                 ,DAY
                ,CVG
                           ..PIT
iKN.
                                                ,CRV
5CA?
                                       LOZ
                                     LEX'
                             >AH
                                  SNA

                                  CHA,
                                          .TVS
                                GSO.
                                       VTL
                       .AHN
                                                    CHS
                                MGM •
.AUS
MSY.
                          o    wo
                                    XttA
                                              027.81

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                                     -10-
                                          Figure 6

            Most Frequent Extreme Persistence Wind Sectors at Selected Locations..
Thin-lfne Portion
Direction sector and distance
of extreme persistence
for 6 hours (distance true
to map scale)

Direction sector and distance
of extreme persistence
for 12 hours

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                       -11-
                        Flgure  7
   Summer Setaon Prevailing Wind Vectors of the Surface
Most Frequent Wind Vectors ot 600m during Extreme Persistence
                 in the Surface Level Winds
                 FNT
                        'DAY
                          HTSI

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                                    -12-


     The use of surface weather data to augment upper  air data in long-range
transport analyses is important because the latter is  generally too coarse
in space (200km) and time (12 hours) scales to be adequate for dispersion
modeling of local and sub-regional scale  sulfate episodes.

     A.3.  Trajectories

     When a strong spatial correlation exists between  winds at the surface or
aloft between adjacent observation stations then air mass trajectories can
be constructed with greater confidence than when only  a weak correlation
exists.  Air mass trajectories to simultate the long-range transport of
effluents have been computed by Wendell (1972), Gage,  et  al (1977),  and
many other researchers.

     The most relevant air mass trajectory calculations for the NEP analyses
are those that originate from the major emission source regions of impor-
tance and the 10 sub-regional locations being analyzed in this paper.  In
addition, a spatial correlation analysis  of extreme persistence cases at
adjacent surface stations is also in process and promising initial
results for several sub-regions in the Ohio River Basin have already been
reported (Smith and Niemann, 1977).  For  example, these results show a good
correlation between extreme persistence cases at Huntington and Pittsburgh
with southwesterly winds and between Peoria and Springfield with southerly
winds.

     An example of the air mass trajectories initiated at some of the origins
in in Figure 8.  The calculated air mass  trajectories  at  600 meters above
ground from Air Quality Control Regions (AQCRs) with high S0?  emission densities
where fossil steam plants predominate as  the major SO* emissions source show
generally small horizontal dispersion between sequential  trajectories separated
by 12 hours and show also a southwest-to-northeast path over a 2- to 3-day
period.  In fact, this October 1-4, 1963, period has two cases of extreme
persistence in the southwest-to-northeast sector in surface winds at
Pittsburgh, providing verification of that extreme-persistence sector
under these synoptic conditions.  The trajectories initiated from all the
AQCRs except number 84 (Figure 8, bottom)  show a clockwise "curl around"
with generally small horizontal dispersion between sequential  trajectories
separated by 12 hours.

    A.4.  Vertical temperature variations.

     The vertical temperature variations  that cause effluent plumes to be
trapped in a well mixed layer that extends to the plume altitude or to be
embedded in a stable layer that is isolated from the ground have been
analyzed recently  (Holzworth, 1977; Fisher, 1977).  The most frequent upper
air weather conditions in the summer season in the early  morning at selected
locations in the Ohio River Basin are presented in Table  1. The inversion
height of 251 - 500 meters would generally cause shorter  stack plumes to
be trapped below the elevated inversion layer and taller  stack plumes to
be embedded within the elevated inversion layer.  The  inversion height of

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                             r igure  o

Calculated Air Mass Trajectories at 600 Meters obove Ground Initiated
on October 2.  1963 (top) and October ft, 1963 (bottom) in AQCRs Where
    Fossil Steam Plants Are  the Predominant SO  Emission Source*
   Trajectories, begin at starting point "x" (at A OCR number).  Each
   "O11 and "A"  marks a 12-hour interval, with  "A"  indicating  the
   trajectory beginning at midnight (Greenwich Median Time) and " O "
   the trajectory beginning at noon.

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                                                 .
                                                   TABLE  1

                       MOST FREQUENT UPPER AIR WEATHER  CONDITION*  IN  THE  SUMMER  SEASON

                                      AT 0615 EST AT  SELECTED  LOCATIONS



Station
Buffalo, N.Y.(1J

V
Pittsburgh, PA.(1)

Huntlngton, W.V.{1)

Dayton, OH.*l)

Nashville, TN.{1'

Peoria, IL. '

Salem, IL.{2)

Class
to • 999
A very super adlabatlc


Inversion Base
Height
(meters)
251-500
751-1000

251-500
751-1000
251-500
751-1000
251-500
751-1000
251-500
751-1000
251-500
751-1000
251-500
751-1000


< -1.60


Frequency
(X)
7.9
0.5

3.5
0.2
3.7
0.4
2.0
1.3
4.3
0.4
6.0
0.7
3.9
1.3
\


B super adiabatic -1.21 to -1.60
C near dry adlabatlc -0.81 to -1.20
D near standard atmosphere -0.40 to -0.80
E weak lapse
F weak inversion
F' moderate inversion
6 strong inversion
6' very strong inversion
H extreme inversion
0.00 to -0.40
0.00 to 0.47
+0.48 to +1.14
+1.15 to +2.82
+2.83 to +6.00
>6.00


Most Frequent
Temp. Stability
Below the
Inversion
(stability
class)
E
D

0
C
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
0
O.E


Relative
Class
1
2
3
4

Most Frequent
Relative
Humidity
Below Within
Inversion Inversion
(humidity
2.3
4

3 .
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
3


Humidity
Relative
Humidity
< 40X
40X - 692
70% - 895
>89X

class)
3
3

3
3
3
2
3
2
3
2.3
3
3
3
3






(1)  Source:  Inversion Study Program, National Climatic  Center,  1960-1964,
              Job No. 13105 (G.C. Holzworth, June  18,  1973)

(2)  Source:  Inverstlon Study Program, National Climatic Center,  1972-1976,
              Job No. 16454 (Teknekron, October 12. 1977)
                                                                                                       li

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                                  -15-
751 - 1000 meters would generally cause both shorter  and  taller stack
plumes to be trapped oelow the elevated inversion layer.  Table 1 shows the
frequencies of trapping short stack plumes and embedding  taller stack
plumes are highest at Buffalo and Peoria and are lowest at Dayton.  The
frequencies of trapping both shorter and taller stack plumes are highest
at Dayton and Salem and are lowest at Pittsburgh.  Table  1 also snows that
the most frequent temperature stability below the inversion is near neutral
and that the most frequent relative humidity oelow and  within the inversion
is in the very moist range (greater than 70%)  with a  few  exceptions.
Taller stack plumes in the vicinity of Salem appear to  be embedded in
inversion layers aloft which contain high relative humidities more
often than at the other 6 locations.  These conditions  are thought to be
very effective in promoting the long-range transport-transformation of
SO,, emissions from tall stacks.  (Wilson, et al, 1977)
  A

     A.5.  Movements of large weather systems

     The relative movements of adjacent high and low  pressure systems has
been analyzed recently (Korshover, 1976; Niemann, 1977).  The summer season
distribution of atmospheric stagnation in Figure 9 shows  two areas with the
maximum number of cases centered over Georgia and West  Virginia.  The
Ohio River Basin has experienced about one-half the maximum number of
cases of extended stagnation in the summer season during  the past 40
years than that of Georgia and West Virginia.   In addition to the preferred
areas of extended stagnation, the average tracks of summer season
stagnating anticyclones are very important to long-range  transport analyses.
The average track of these systems in the summer season in Figure 10 is
generally parallel to the Ohio River Valley for the limited sample of cases,
namely those with an absence of fronts and precipitation  during their 4 days
or more lifetime, and tne average track is generally  curved in a clockwise
direction for the full sample of cases.  The stationarity of the high pressure
centers near Pittsburgh for the limited sample of cases is especially noteworthy.

     The essence of the relative movements of adjacent  high and low
pressure systems with regard to long-range transport  can  be shown
schematically  (Figure 11).  The low pressure systems  with their associated
cold and warm fronts usually overtake the slowly moving high pressure
system from the northwest.  The cold fronts generally have an east-west
or a north-south orientation and either pass through  the  areas of nigh
pressure or are deflected to the northeast.  The high pressure system
generally moves to the southeast, but may move to the northeast especially
when the blocking influence of a tropical cyclone is  present off the mid-
Atlantic coast.  An example of the latter behavior was  present during the
high pressure episode shown previously in Figure 12.  An  especially
iirportant feature associated with this type of blocked  stagnating anti-
cyclone is that the return flow from the eastern side of  the high usually
passes over the southeastern U.S. and may even be re-entrained in the
southerly flow on the back (west) side of the high pressure system.  When
the high pressure cell drifts too far south then this return flow, if it

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                                      -16-
                                F igure  9

             Summer Season Distribution of Atmospheric Stagnation
                       (Four Days or More), 1936-1975
     Contours:     Number of cases of extended stagnation (four days or more)
                  in 40 years in the summer season (June, July, and August).
Source:       J. Korshover, "Climatology of Stagnating Anticyclones East
             of the Rocky Mountains, 1936-1975," NOAA Technical Memoran-
             dum ERL ARL-55 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce,
             March 1976).
                                                                   Teknekronjnc.

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                              -17-

                     Figure 10

Average Tracks of Summer Season Stagnating Anticyclones
                                     Limited Sample of Cases

                                     Full Sample of Cases

                             0 = day; (0) = number of cases averaqeH
                             Example: 1(3) = 1st day, 3 cases averaged
                         Notet  See table I-11 for dates of cases in samples.
                                                       Iff I Teknekron Inc.

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                       -18-
                        Figure 11



Schemotic Oiogrom Stagnating Anticyclone and Frontal Systems

-------
                                    -19-
is well developed, is usually too far south to pass over the southeastern
U.S. and be re-entrained.  When these systems are displaced northward of
the normal positions, the associated long-range transport affects north-
eastern Canada (Yap and Chung, 1977).

     Furthermore, it has been observed (Smith and Hunt,  1977;  and others)
that two main types of weather patterns are associated with rainwater
sulfate episodes as follows:

    (1)   A slow moving active frontal system (cold or warm)  where
          convergence of moist air at low levels usually enhanced by
          mountains produce heavy and prolonged rainfall; and

    (2)   A stagnating anticyclone over a high S02 emission density
          area which eventually moves on thereby allowing the pollutant
          air mass to reach the periphery of the high pressure cell
          where it can be drawn into an active frontal system.

     In the first instance, the ambient sulfate concentrations need only be
average to produce high sulfate concentration in the rainwater levels,
whereas in the second instance only a relatively small amount of rain could
produce high sulfate concentration in the rainwater.

     Finally, another evidence of long-range transport in meteorological
data comes from analyses of conventional visual range observations  at
weather stations  (McCormick and Holzworth, 1976).  The contours of  low
noontime visibilities based on selected stations for October 15 and 19,
1963 (Figure 13)  show the formation of a large area of visioility
degradation over the Upper Ohio River Valley by the second day of the
episode and considerable expansion of the area by October 19,  which
corresponds to the trajectory end points in Figure 12 from the midwestern
AQCRs at 600m.  In addition, the contours of low noontime visibilities
for October 19, 1963, in Figure 13, show a new area of visibility
degradation forming over southern Georgia and Alabama and northern
Florida, which corresponds to the trajectory end points  from the
Upper Ohio River AQCRs at 600m.  A comparison of the trajectories at
the two altitudes in Figure 12 with the large areas of visibility
degradation in Figure 13 strongly suggests that elevated sources such as
fossil steam plants probably contributed more to visibility degradation
via long-range transport than did lower-level sources.  However, the
relative contributions to visibility degradation of elevated and low-
level sources within  the areas of degradation remain to be determined
as do the relative contributions from long-range transport versus local
production in general.

     A.6.  Summary

     The five basic meteorological conditions discussed  above suggest
the following preferred long-range transport paths associated with
adverse dispersion conditions:

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                          -20-
                          Figure 12
Calculated Air Moss Trajectories at 600 Meters above Ground (top)
and 150 Meters above Ground (bottom) Initiated in Counties Where
  Fossil Steam Plants Are the Predominant SO  Emission Source*
                                        "x" is the starting point'
h  Trajectories begin on October 16, 1963.
(at AQCR number).  Each "Q" and "A" marks a 12-hour  interval,
with  "A"  indicating  the  trajectory beginning  at midnight (Green-
wich  Median Time) and"D" the trajectory beginning at noon.

-------
                                                  -21-
                                            Figure  13

               Contours of Low Noontime (EST) Visibilities Based on Selected Stations
                     for October 15, 1963 (top) and October 19, 1963 (bottom)
ontours;indicate 8 and 12 miles
        of visibility
        indicate areas where
        visibility is 6 miles
        or less
                                                                            12.0

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                              -22-
(1)   to the nortn of the lower  Onio River  Basin extending into
     Canada

(2)   to the northeast and to the south of  the upper  Ohio River
     Basin

(3)   to the north of Washington and New York

(4)   to the southwest of Georgia

(5)   to the north and northwest of east-central Texas.

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                                   -23-
    B.  Experimental Evidence — U.S.

        Evidence for long-range transport of sulfates began appearing in
the U.S. literature in 1973.  The large background of sulfates measured
at eastern non-urban locations was attributed to long distance transport
of sulfate formed by atmospheric oxidation of sulfur dioxide (Altshuller,
1973).  Several instances were reported of satellite observations of
industrial plumes visible for 150 km over water (Lyons and Pease, 1973).
An observation of synoptic scale air pollution transport was also reported
(Hall et al, 1973) during which a massive pall of hazy, smokey air drifted
from the Ohio River Valley into the Great Plains.   However, it was generally
felt that such situations were unusual and that plumes, especially over
land, would be sufficiently dispersed by 50 to 100 km as to be undetectable.

     However, a number of studies during 1974 and 1975 led to an increased
interest in the long range transport of pollutants.  Scandinavian scientists
attributed increases of acid rain in their country to long-range transport
of SC>2 and sulfuric acid aerosol from tall utility stacks in England and
western Europe (Bolin, 1971).  In attempting to explain why urban sulfate
levels have stayed generally constant, while S02 concentrations decreased
due to SC>2 control, EPA scientists hypothesized long-range transport of
sulfate from rural power plants with tall stacks (EPA, 1975).   Measure-
ments of light scattering aerosols 50 km southwest of St. Louis indicated
no discernible increase in scattering when the air mass had passed over
St. Louis.  This suggested high regional background rather than an urban
source for light scattering aerosol (Charlson et al, 1974).

     Studies performed as part of EPA's Midwest Interstate Sulfur Transfor-
mation and Transport Program (MISTT) during 1975 and 1976 demonstrated that
on a number of days, power plant and urban plumes could be followed for  300
km by measuring S02, sulfate, ozone or light scattering aerosols flfhite, et al,
1976; Wilson, et al, 1977; Wilson, 1978).  Contributing to such long-range
transport are stable meteorological conditions.

During nighttime, or other periods of low vertical turbulence, plumes
remain cohesive for hundreds of kilometers and can travel long distances and
still give high concentrations when mixed to ground level.  Under certain
conditions, the nocturnal jet, an air stream at about plume height which
moves at about twice the ground wind speed, will form and increase the
distance traveled by the cohesive, nighttime plume (Smith et al, 1978).
During the daytime vertical turbulence mixes plumes throughout the boundary
layer (approximately 1000 meters high) and wind shear (tne change in
wind speed and direction with altitude) increases the horizontal spreading
of plumes.  However, conditions are sometimes such that the wind snear
is low and then plumes will show little horizontal dispersion over a distance
of 200 to 300 kilometers.  Such conditions occurred about one-fourth
of the time during MISTT sampling periods of one month each summer.

     Such long range transport can be very important when one plume is
emitted into another dispersed plume from an upwind source.  The frequency  at
which this "source intensification" occurs in various parts of the northeast

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                                    -24-
United States has been examined in a paper by Gage et al  (1977).  This
phenomena has been shown experimentally to be responsible for very  high
sulfate concentrations.  Sulfate measurements made during the design phase
of SURE (Sulfur Regional Experiment sponsored by the Electric Power Research
Institute) indicated an air pollution episode in West Virginia during which
sulfate levels at Wheeling reached 80 ug/m  (Hidy et al,  1976).  An analysis
using weather maps, visibility profiles, long range trajectories, and
emission inventories was undertaken to determine if the episode was due  to
local sources or long distance transport.  The high concentration occurred
when the air mass had traveled over several high emission regions in
succession but did not occur during similar meteorological conditions
when the air mass had traveled over less polluted regions (Fondario 1977).
Thus, the analysis confirms the importance of long range  transport.

     Other studies have focused on larger scale phenomena.  Under certain
meteorological conditions, such as high-pressure, stagnating anticyclones,
pollutants can build up in regions with dimensions of several hundred
miles.  Satellite imagery and visibility isopleths, prepared from National
Weather Service visibility observations, have been used to examine  these hazy
air masses or "blobs" (Lyons and Husar, 1976).  These "blobs" of polluted
air, which correlate closely with sulfate levels (Husar,  1977), can be
identified as they move over extended distances.  Long range air mass
trajectories have been used to confirm that the blob actually travels
as a cohesive air mass. Inspection of visibility isopleths for June,
July, and August of 1975 revealed six blobs with an average duration
of eight days over various multistate regions of the midwestern and eastern
United States.  During the period June 25 to July 5 an air mass entered
the U.S. over Louisiana and moved north somewhat east of  St. Louis, crossing
the high emission areas TVA and stagnating for several days over the
Ohio River Valley.  It then moved south again over the TVA area, west
across St. Louis, north to St. Paul-Minneapolis, and east across the
Great Lakes.  It then moved south and east causing visibilities of  less
than four miles over Atlanta, Birmingham, and Tallahassee before moving
out to sea (Husar et al, 1976).  A similar situation in which a blob
originating from the Ohio River Valley moved to Miami was observed  in
August of 1976 (Lyons et al, 1978).

     The contribution of local, advected and chemical converted sulfate
during transport was estimated for the eastern U.S. on an annual average
basis (Altshuller, 1976).  Comparisons of urban and non-urban sulfur dioxide,
sulfate and vanadium using sulfur dioxide and vanadium as tracers results in
the association of about 1 ug/m^ with locally formed sulfate. 2 ug/m^ with
advected urban sulfate and the remainder of the 6 to 10 ug/m  of sulfate
with sulfate formed by chemical conversion of S02 during  transport.

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                                 -25-
    C.  Experimental Evidence — Europe

        In 1968, a first detailed analysis of approximately 15  years
of data from the European Air Chemistry Network showed that an  aera
of highly acid precipitation (pH 3-4)  located in the industrial heart
of Europe was steadily expanding.  This finding was of great  concern to
Scandinavians, since it coupled with their own observations that
rivers and lakes in southern Norway and Sweden were becoming  increa-
singly acidic.  This was believed to be causing lower fish population
and reduced forest production in those areas.  It was suspected that
long-range transport of sulfur emissions to Scandinavia from  source
areas in the U.K. and other Western Europe countries was responsible
for this increasing acidity.

     This concern led to the initiation in 1972 of a comprehensive
5-year research program called the "Long Range Transport of Air
Pollutants" (LRTAP) study, which had the goal of determining  the
relative importance of local and distant sources of sulfur compounds
within European countries.  Special attention was focused on  tne
question of precipitation acidity.  The project was sponsored by the
OECD and 11 European countries participated actively.  A leading role
was taken by the Norwegian Institute for Air Research, which  prepared
the recently issued final report of the project (OECD, 1977a, 1977b).
These results have also been summarized by Barnes (1977).  In general,
the study confirmed that airborne sulfur compounds do travel  long distances
(several hundred kilometers or more), and has shown that the  air quality
in any one European country is measurably affected by emissions from
other European countries.

     The LRTAP experimental progaram involved the measurement of sulfur
compounds—both air concentrations and deposition in precipitation—
at a network of 76 ground stations and by aircraft.  In addition,
mathematical dispersion modeling was used to estimate concentrations
and depositions using S02 emissions and meteorological data.

     In general, the measured concentrations and the derived  total
deposition of sulfur compounds were found to be at a maximum  in the
major emission areas and to decline with increasing distance  from
them.  However, certain localized areas (e.g., southern Scandinavia and
Switzerland) have higher total deposition figures than would  be expected
by their distance from the major sources.  This situation is  brought
about by high amounts of wet deposition due to a large amount of terrain-
induced precipitation in these areas.

     It was found that acidity is principally introduced to the precipi-
tation as sulfuric and nitric acid.  A limited number of measurements
showed clearly that the contribution of oxides of nitrogen to the
acidity in precipitation in Northwest Europe is substantial,  and in
some cases as large as that from sulfur oxides.

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                                   -26-
     Several of the participating countries used instrumented aircraft
to obtain data on above-surface concentrations of air pollutants.
Flights were usually made under specific meteorological conditions
and never at night or in clouds.  The results confirmed that under
these conditions, sulfur compounds are normally transported in the
lowest 2 km of the atmosphere, generally witn a peak concentration
a few hundred meters above ground level and a progressive decline
above that height.  The average mixing height under flight conditions
was found to be 1,200-1,300 m, although individual vertical profiles
varied considerably.  The flights also showed that under certain
conditions distinct plumes of pollutants existed several hundred
kilometers downwind of major source areas.

     A sector analysis was performed on the surface measurements.   Using
850 mbar (1,200-1,500m altitude) trajectories, the data were allocated
to six directional arcs and a mean value was calculated.  The results
showed that the sectors with high mean concentrations and/or depositions
were not randomly oriented, but were directed towards the main areas of
emission.  The sector analysis did not, in general, give a clear indication
of which sources give rise to what fraction of the concentrations in a
given sector.  Hence, mathematical modeling was employed in conjunction
with the measured data to give more definitive estimates of interregional
and transnational sulfur exchanges, as well as to obtain a more complete
pattern of concentration and deposition in Europe.

     The resulting overall picture showed a considerable transport  of
sulfur pollutants over the national borders in Europe.  The total
deposition in a given country due to foreign emissions of SCL  was found
to depend on the size and geographical position of the country in
relation to the major emission sources.  From the model estimates
countries were grouped roughly into net receivers or donators of
sulfur pollution.  For 1974, the estimates showed that there were
countries with depositions almost three times their emissions while
others had emissions three times their depositions.  In about half
of the countries in the study, the total deposition estimated for 1974
exceeded the indigenous emissions.  The model results also indicated
that, within Western and Central Europe as a whole, about 50% of the
sulfur emitted is dry deposited and 30% is wet deposited, with the
balance leaving the region.

     The results of the LRTAP study showed clearly that if some European
countries find it desirable to reduce substantially the total deposition
of sulfur within their borders, individual national control programs
can achieve only a limited improvement.  At the same time, these
national programs will result in reductions in pollution received in
other countries.

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                                  -27-
of sulfuric acid aerosol in the light scattering range should form
as the stack emissions cool and condense in the plume the plume
opacity will exceed the in-stack opacity.  Although such differences
have been observed in plumes from some oil-fired facilities,  (W.D.
Conner, 1976) similar effects have not been reported to date  in
plumes from coal-fired facilities.

     Considerable effort has gone into the development and evaluation at
emission sources of continuous monitoring instruments for sulfur  dioxide,
nitric oxide and other gaseous pollutants in combustion sources.  (Nader
1976; Homolya, 1974, 1975; Shen and Stasiuk, 1975;  Rollins, 1977; Herget
and Conner, 1977)  Instruments have been developed  to operate in  extractive,
in situ and remote sensing modes with particular emphasis on  sulfur
dioxide.  A considerable fraction of the effort has been on adapting
continuous monitoring instruments to which samples  are brought through
probes and transport systems.  Appropriate sampling interfaces and con-
ditioning of samples are essential to proper operation of such instruments.
(Homolya, 1975)  In situ instruments also are available which can be directly
mounted in a stack access port. (Nader, 1976; Homolya, 1974,  1975)   Several
operational ground-based remote-sensing techniques  are available  for
measurement of pollutants in plumes. (Herget and Conner, 1977)  This type
of equipment can be used to obtain the flux of pollutant species  in  plumes.
The correlation spectrometer (COSPEC) (Herget and Conner, 1977) 14 has been
used to obtain flux measurements in power plant plumes progressing downwind.

     Instrumented aircraft are used to obtain pollutant profiles  at
various distances downwind in plumes.  Most of the  equipment  used involves
the faster response commercially available continuous ambient air monitors
for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone condensation nuclei, and
meteorological visual range measurements. (Blumenthal et al,  1977) Special
filter procedures have been developed especially to measure particulate sulfur
in aircraft operations.  (Husar et al, 1976; Forest and Newman, 1977)  An
electrical mobility analyzer and optical particle counters also have been
successfully operated in aircraft to obtain aerosol size distributions.
(Blumenthal et al, 1977)

     Ground level sampling for transport and fate studies does not
typically utilize unique techniques compared with other ambient air
monitoring activities.  However, there often is available a high  level
of analytical capability so more complex and advanced techniques  and
instrumentation often are used along with more conventional instrumen-
tation.  Ground level installations also provide the opportunity  for
inter-comparison of interrelated techniques.  Since the rapid response
needs for plume studies do not apply, techniques involving time
integrated samples can be conveniently utilized.  In aircraft opera-
tions the concentration of effort for aerosols has  been on sulfate
or total particulate sulfur, aerosol size distribution and visual
range.  In ground level operations it is possible to analyze  for
acid sulfates, nitrates, ammonium and many elements after particulate
sizing.  A large number of chemical and spectroscopic techniques  have

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                                  -28-
III.  MEASUREMENT AND CHARACTERIZATION

      The measurement of the pollutants produced  by combustion of coal
should take into consideration the impact of the  following aspects on
pollution concentration and composition: (1)  effect of control devices on
flue gases; (2) chemical and physical changes in  flue gases when they are
cooled and diluted initially in the plume;  (3)  chemical and physical
changes as pollutants are dispersed and transported downwind  in  plume;
(4) air quality at ground level when the plume touches the ground.

     Coal-fired sources produce substantial concentrations of sulfur
dioxide, nitric oxide and particulates.  The gaseous pollutants  also
include sulfur trioxide, carbon monoxide, hydrogen chloride,  and organics
including aldehydes. (EPA 1977)  The particulate  fraction also contains
sulfur, aluminum, silicon, iron, potassium and sodium as major
constituents.   (Davison et al, 1974;  Gladney,  et al,  1976)   The trace
elements including sodium, magnesium, phosphorous, titanium,  vanadium,
chromium, manganese, nickel, copper, zinc,  bromine,  cadmium,  tin,
antimony, barium, mercury, lead, arsenic, gallium, thallium,  beryllium,
selenium and cobalt will be considered in another paper.   (Davison et al,
1974; Gladney et al, 1976)  The more abundant elements in the flyash
excepting sulfur are of limited interest.

     In the plume, sulfur trioxide can be converted to sulfuric  acid.
To the extent that the ammonia mixes into the plume varying amounts of
neutralization will occur.  The nitric oxide can  be converted to nitrogen
dioxide in the plume. (Wilson et al, 1977)   This  process occurs  particu-
larly rapidly if sufficient ozone is available to mix effectively
throughout the plume.  Larger particles or liquid aerosols can fall
out of the plume near the stack.

     Sulfur dioxide, sulfuric acid and particulate sulfur have been of
great interest in the emissions from coal-fired facilities.  Sulfur
dioxide and sulfate can be analyzed by EPA method 6 and method 8
determinations.  (Barnes et al, 1977)  It is appropriate to modify
method 6 so that individual fractions containing  probe plug washings,
probe washings, the isopropanol impinger catches  and the impinger
plug washings can be analyzed separately for sulfur dioxide and
sulfate.  (Barnes et al, 1977)  The method 8 sampling can be modified
by use of a fritted glass bubbler to improve collection effeciency
for sulfates at relatively high sampling rates.

     Opacity is a physical characteristic of plumes regulated by opacity
emission standards.  ( Federal Register, 1975)  While opacity  standards
apply to the opacity of plumes, opacity monitoring measurements  are
made in stacks or ducts.  (W.D. Conner, 1976)  In-stack measurements are
made by transmissometers with a folded optical path througn a probe.
Plume opacity also can be measured by a trained observer, lidar  unit or
sun photometer.  (W.D. Conner, 1976)   In-stack and plume opacity  measure-
ments usually agree satisfactorily.  However, if  substantial  amounts

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                                    -29-
been proposed for differentiating sulfate species (Newman,  1977).
However, many of these techniques have a limited capability to
distinguish sulfate species in ambinet air,  cannot be readily quanti-
tated, lack adequate sensitivity, or the procedures are extremely
tedious.  Most of these approaches have received relatively limited
evaluation.  The most impressive efforts have been by Brosset coworkers
using Gran titation (Askue and Brosset, 1975; Brosset et al,  1975).

     Most analytical methods for sulfates are preceded by collection
on filters.  Some filter materials such as glass fiber, particularly
when alkaline convert sulfur dioxide to sulfate.  This1 artifact
although recognized some years ago (Lee and  Wagman, 1977) has been
the subject of much recent laboratory investigations (Meserole et al,
1976; Coutant, 1977) and field sampling projects (Pierson et al, 1976;
Stevens et al, 1977).  Based on both laboratory and ambient air  comparisons,
an artifact of from less than 1 ug/m3 to 4 or 5 ug/m3 can occur  owing
to oxidation of SO to sulfate on the filter  medium.

     An intercomparison study on ambient air particulates in Charleston,
W. Va. using a large number of different samplers and analytical methods
provides results on the variability of sulfate measurements (Camp et al,
1977).  For total sulfates, total sulfur, finely divided sulfate and
finely divided sulfur, the average standard  deviations on a set  of 16
samples was as follows: 16%, 15%, 19% and 11%.  These differences are
reasonably satisfactory considering the diversity of samplers and analytical
techniques used.  When the same type of dichotomous sampler was  used
in triplicate with the same analytical technique, typical concentrations
of total particulate sulfur measured were as follows:  2.3, 2.2, 2.3
ug/m3; 6.1, 5.9, 6.0 ug/m3; 11.3, 11.3, 11.3 ug/m3.

     An integrated measurement system with particle size separation into
coarse and fine fractions on a dichotomous sampler has been coupled to
x-ray fluorescence analysis (EDXRF) for particulate sulfur  and about 20
other elements (Stevens et al, 1977).  After EDXRF, extracted samples can
be analyzed for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium,  and hydrogen ions by use of
ion exchange chromatography, the spectrophotometric-thorin  method, the ion
selective electrode and Gran titration (Stevens et al, 1977). Other anions
such as sulfite if present also can be measured.  Total fine and coarse
fraction mass also can be determined.  An extensive evaluation and research
monitoring program has been conducted using  many of the components of this
system  (Stevens et al, 1977).

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                                  -30-
IV.  LABORATORY RESULTS ON REACTION KINETICS OF SULFUR OXIDES

     In order to understand the formation,  transport and removal of
sulfate it is necessary to understand both  the chemical  reactions leading
to the conversion of S02 to sulfate and to  the aerosol dynamics that
govern the size distribution of the resulting  aerosol particle.  This
research involves laboratory studies of basic  kinetics,  chemical kinetic
model predictions of oxidation rates, smog  chamDer  studies which simulate
atmospheric behavior, and small and large field studies  of atmospheric
phenomena.

Transformation Mechanisms

     The mechanisms by which SO2 is oxidized to sulfates are important
because they determine the rate of formation of sulfate, the influence of
the concentration of SO2 and other species  on  the reaction rate, and, to
some extent, the final form of sulfate.  Atmospheric S02 may be oxidized
in the gas phase to sulfur trioxide (SO ) and  subsequently be converted
to sulfuric acid aerosol, or it may dissolve in aqueous  solution to form
sulfite ions which are then oxidized to sulfate. Subsequent to the oxida-
tion, sulfuric acid or sulfate may interact with other materials to form
other sulfate compounds.  The most important sulfate formation  mechanisms
identified to date are summarized in Table  2.

     A key concern for air pollution control strategy is to  determine
whether S02 conversion is first order or zero  order in SO2.  If the conversion
is first order, then an 80% decrease in S02 emissions could  lead to an 80%
decrease in sulfate.  If, on the other hand, the conversion  is  zero order in
S02 and we assume that at the present time  10% of emitted SO2 is converted
to sulfate, then it could require a 98% reduction in S02 emissions to produce
an 80% reduction in sulfate.  In the latter case it becomes  very important
to determine if there are other pollutants  that influence S02 conversion
and that could be more easily controlled.   For example,  if heavy metal
catalysis is important (Mechanism 5), better fly ash controls to limit
primary aerosol emissions could be used to  reduce sulfate.

     Mechanisms 1 and 2 are first order in  S02 and  in sunlight.  Mechanism 2
also depends on the composition of the background air because this will
influence the concentration of reactive species such as  OH,  H02, and CH302.
Mechanisms 3, 4, 5, and 6 may be near zero  order in S02, but depend strongly
on the concentration of ammonia, oxidants,  soluble  catalytic metal ions,
or particulate surface area.  Mechanisms 3, 4, and  5 will be important only
when liquid droplets can exist, i.e., under conditions of high  water vapor
content and high relative humidity.

Reaction Rates

     A number of recent studies of the reaction rates of both gas and liquid
phase reactions were summarized and reviewed at the International Symposium
on Sulfates in the Atmosphere (ISSA) held in Dubrovnik,  Yugoslavia, September

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            TABLE 2.   MECHANISMS BY WHICH SULFUR DIOXIDE IS CONVERTED TO SULFATES
         Mechanism
     Overall reaction
                                         Factors on which
                                         sulfate formation
                                         primarily depends
1.  Direct photooxidation
    through electronic
    excitation.
S02
     sunlight, oxygen
                    >
       water vapor
Sulfur dioxide concentration,
sunlight intensity.
2.  Indirect photo
    oxidation or  photo-
    chemical ly induced
    oxidation.
2.   Air oxidation in
    liquid droplets.
4.  Catalyzed oxidation
    in liquid droplets.
SO,
SO.
                                    smog, sunlight
       water vapor
    hydroxyl radical (OH)
      HO ~, CH 43 Radicals

        liquid water
                                           oxygen
                                                 > NHj
    oxygen, liquid water   •_
SO 2 - >•  804
     heavy metal ions
                                    Sulfur dioxide concentration,
                                    sunlight intensity,  OH,  HO2
                                    CHj02 concentration.
                                    Ammonia concentration.
                                     Concentration of heavy metal
                                     (Fe,  V,  Mn)  ions or  carbon
                                     particles.
                                                                                i
                                                                               GO
    Oxidation in liquid
    droplets by strong
    oxidants.
                                      ozone
SO-
                         SO"
        H2°2
 Ozone or hydrogen peroxide
 concentration.
    Catalyzed oxidation on
    dry surfaces.
SO-
       oxygen, water
    	*•
     fly ash, carbon or
      other particles
 Particle concentration and
 surface area.

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                                   -32-
1977.  During the ISSA workshop, further discussions led to substantial
agreement on what is known and what additional questions most urgently
need to be answered.

     The direct photooxidation of S02 by way of electronically excited
states of S02, mechanism 1, is relatively unimportant for most conditions
that occur within the troposphere (Calvert et al,  1978).

     The indirect photooxidation, mechanism 2, is  a major mechanism for
the conversion of SC>2 to sulfate in the troposphere.  Early smog chamber
studies showed that SC>2 was converted to sulfate somewhat faster when
irradiated in the presence of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides (up to 5%
per hour in an auto exhaust/air mixture) then when irradiated in "clean" air
(1 to 2% per hour in charcoal filtered air).  However, the presence of SC»2
had only a minor influence on the gross parameters of the smog reactions
such as the rate and quantity of N02 and ozone formation (Wilson et al, 1972)
More recently smog chamber experiments with improved instrumentation have
been conducted to determine the relationship between SC^ oxidation and the
gaseous precursors common in polluted air (Miller, 1978).  A mixture of
seventeen non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC), which simulates the ambient urban
atmosphere, was used with NC^ and SOo.  The oxidation of SO^ to sulfate
aerosol was found to be first order in SC^.   Tne maximum rate of oxidation
was strongly related to the initial NMHC/NC^ ratios, but over the six hour
irradiation period, the conversion of SO  to aerosol was only weakly related
to the initial NMHC/NC^ ratio.  For constant NMHC/NC^ ratios, S02 conversion
was independent of NMHC/MO^ concentrations.   Typical SCfy oxidation rates for
polluted air ranged from 2% to 8% per hour but the high rates were sustained
for only a few hours.  Outdoor smog chamber studies, in which S02 was added
to St. Louis urban air, also gave conversion rates in this range.  S02 half-
lives of 1 to 2 days are predicted from these experiments in accordance with
half-lives derived from kinetic simulations of photochemical smog and from
tropospheric measurements.

     Smog chamber measurements with carefully purified air indicate that it
is possible to obtain conversion rates of less than one percent per hour.
However, pollutant concentrations typical of clean background air are
sufficient to give a conversion rate of 1 to 2% per hour (Kocmond et al.,
1975).

     An evaluation has been made of the existing kinetic data related to
the elementary homogeneous reactions of S02 within the troposphere (Calvert
et al., 1978; Eggelton, 1978).  During the last decade laboratory and
field evidence has been obtained which indicates that the gas phase
oxidation of S02 is a significant path for the formation of sulfate in
the atmosphere.  Among the most important reactions are those of SO2
with OH, HO2, and 01302 free radicals.  Reactions  involving RCHOO,
CHjO, and 0  (3P) are of lesser importance.  The direct photooxidation
or S02 is not important.  The radicals and atoms are produced in the
      -hydrocarbon-sunlight photochemical cycle and are found in polluted

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                                  -33-
urban air, "clean" rural air, and in stack gas plumes.   Rate
constants for most of the important reactions have been measured,
with general agreement among reported values.   Of fundamental
importance to the confirmation and improvement of present homogeneous
reaction mechanisms of SO, oxidation is the direct observation of the
reactive transients (OH, H02, CH302, etc.)  within the various
atmospheres.

     Computer simulations for typical urban mixtures of pollutants
indicate an S02 oxidation rate of about 2-4% per hour for a sunny
summer day, in good agreement with atmospheric measurements of 1-5%
per hour.  Computer simulations also suggest that in clean air,  the
S02 oxidation rates are somewhat slower than in the urban environ-
ment.  The present level of understanding of homogeneous SC^ oxida-
tion justified incorporation in model calculations of rate expressions
beyond simple first order, linear dependence on SO  concentration.

     The conversion of S02 to sulfate in liquid droplets was also extensively
discussed at the ISSA meeting.  Experiments have been made on both bulk and
dispersed systems.  Eight experimental studies of mechanism 3, the uncatalyzed
conversion of SC^ to sulfate by dissolved oxygen in liquid droplets, were
analyzed.  Six independent studies found that this reaction was  unimportant
in the troposphere.  However, two other groups obtained rate constants
approximately two orders of magnitude larger.   If these are correct, this
mechanism could be significant.  Additional studies are needed to resolve
this discrepancy.  Such studies are difficult because traces of  organic
pollutants in the water will greatly reduce the reaction rate while traces
of catalysts can substantially increase the reaction rate.  The  only role
that ammonia appears to play is to reduce the pH of the droplet  and thus
permit more SO^ to be dissolved into the solution.

     Mechanism 4, in which the oxidation of S02 by dissolved oxygen is
catalyzed by transition metal ions, has also received considerable study.
This mechanism may be important for high concentrations of ions  (10~5 molar)
which may occur in urban plumes or smogs but probably will not occur in
background rural air.  However, one study has reported  that when two transi-
tion metal ions are present in solution the reaction rates are perhaps an
order of magnitude higher than for the same concentration of a single ion.
This synergistic interaction requires further study. There are  two different
situations in which this mechanism might be important.   In clouds the droplets
will be relatively dilute.  However, in other situations where the droplets
result from the deliquescence or hygroscopicity of ambient aerosols highly
concentrated solutions will occur.  Further studies are needed to determine
the composition and concentrations of dissolved species in both  cloud water
droplets and liquid urban aerosols.

     A third type of liquid phase mechanism involves the solution of strong
oxidants such as ozone or hydrogen peroxide into a liquid droplet containing
dissolved S02.  Two studies of the reaction of ozone give rate constants
varying by a factor of 10.  If the higher rate constant is correct, background
ozone concentrations of 50 ppb would lead to significant conversion of S02 to

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                                  -33-
urban air, "clean" rural air,  and in stack gas plumes.  Rate
constants for most of the important reactions have been measured,
with general agreement among reported values.  Of fundamental
importance to the confirmation and improvement of present homogeneous
reaction mechanisms of SOo oxidation is the direct observation of the
reactive transients (OH, H02,  CH302, etc.) within the various
atmospheres.

     Computer simulations for  typical urban mixtures of pollutants
indicate an S02 oxidation rate of about 2-4%  per hour for a sunny
summer day, in good agreement  with atmospheric measurements of 1-5%
per hour.  Computer simulations also suggest  that in clean air, the
S02 oxidation rates are somewhat slower than  in the urban environ-
ment.  The present level of understanding of  homogeneous SO., oxida-
tion justified incorporation in model calculations of rate expressions
beyond simple first order, linear dependence  on SO  concentration.

     The conversion of S02 to  sulfate in liquid droplets was also extensively
discussed at the ISSA meeting.  Experiments have been made on both bulk and
dispersed systems.  Eight experimental studies of mechanism 3, the uncatalyzed
conversion of SC^ to sulfate by dissolved oxygen in liquid droplets, were
analyzed.  Six independent studies found that this reaction was unimportant
in the troposphere.  However,  two other groups obtained rate constants
approximately two orders of magnitude larger.  If these are correct, this
mechanism could be significant.  Additional studies are needed to resolve
this discrepancy.  Such studies are difficult because traces of organic
pollutants in the water will greatly reduce the reaction rate while traces
of catalysts can substantially increase the reaction rate.  The only role
that ammonia appears to play is to reduce the pH of the droplet and thus
permit more S0^> to be dissolved into the solution.

     Mechanism 4, in which the oxidation of S02 by dissolved oxygen is
catalyzed by transition metal  ions, has also  received considerable study.
This mechanism may be important for high concentrations of ions  (10~5 molar)
which may occur in urban plumes or smogs but  probably will not occur in
background rural air.  However, one study has reported that when two transi-
tion metal ions are present in solution the reaction rates are perhaps an
order of magnitude higher than for the same concentration of a single ion.
This synergistic interaction requires further study.  There are two different
situations in which this mechanism might be important.  In clouds the droplets
will be relatively dilute.  However, in other situations where the droplets
result from the deliquescence  or hygroscopicity of ambient aerosols highly
concentrated solutions will occur.  Further studies are needed to determine
the composition and concentrations of dissolved species in both cloud water
droplets and liquid urban aerosols.

     A third type of liquid phase mechanism involves the solution of strong
oxidants such as ozone or hydrogen peroxide into a liquid droplet containing
dissolved S02.  Two studies of the reaction of ozone give rate constants
varying by a factor of 10.  If the higher rate constant is correct, background
ozone concentrations of 50 ppb would lead to  significant conversion of S02 to

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                                 -34-
sulfate in liquid droplets.  Further  studies  are needed to determine the
correct reaction rate.  The reaction  of hydrogen peroxide is faster than
that of ozone.  The one measurement reported  indicates that hydrogen peroxide
at an ambient concentration level of  1 ppb would yield significant conversion
rates.  It therefore becomes important to  be  able to make direct measurements
of the hydrogen peroxide concentration in  the troposphere  (Beilke and Grabenhorst,
1978; Hegg and Hobbs, 1978).  Recent  studies  suggest that carbon particles,
formed during all combustion processes/ if dispersed in liquid droplets
could also catalyze the conversion of S02  to  sulfate (Novakov, 1977).

     The catalytic oxidation of SO, to sulfate on dry surfaces appears to be
controlled by the number of absorption sites  and therefore depends on the
surface area of the particle.  It appears  that once S02 is absorbed it is
slowly converted to sulfate and stays on the  surface so that only a limited
amount of sulfate can be formed by this mechanism  (Judeikis et al, 1977).

     There has been considerable discussion of the relative importance of gas
phase and liquid phase reactions in the total conversion of SO  to sulfate.
It is clear that the homogeneous photochemical mechanisms, first order in
S02, are sufficient to account for a  substantial conversion of S02 to sulfate.
Therefore any control mechanism to reduce  sulfate formation will have to include
reduction in S02 emissions.  The liquid phase reactions are not as well under-
stood.  However, there is some qualitative evidence that the liquid phase
reaction does occur and may indeed under certain circumstances be much faster
than the homogeneous conversion.  It  is observed experimentally that when
very high ambient concentrations of sulfate are found, they are usually associated
with clouds or high relative humidity. This type of conversion might be reduced
by control of precursors or reactants other than S0_.  Further studies are
needed to define the contribution and specific mechanisms involved in the
liquid phase reaction mechanism.

Aerosol Dynamics

     In order to predict the rate of  removal  of aerosol particles by dry
deposition, the amount and location of particles deposited in the lung, and
the effect of aerosols on visibility, weather and climate, it is necessary
to understand the processes governing the  formation and growth of aerosol
particles and their changes in size with changes in relative humidity.

     Studies (Whitby, 1976; 197?) over the past 5 years of the size distri-
bution of particles in both sulfate aerosols  and general atmospheric aerosols
nave led to important changes in our  understanding of the behavior of aerosols
such as sulfates in the ambient atmosphere.   There are three principal modes
(particle-size ranges).  Particles in the  Aitken nuclei mode, <0.08 um
diameter, are formed by condensation  of vapors produced either by high
temperatures or chemical processes.  The accumulation mode, which includes
particles from 0.08 to 2.0 um in diameter, is formed by coagulation of

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                                    -35-
particles in the nuclei mode and by growth of particles  in the nuclei mode
through condensation of vapors onto the particles.  Coarse particles, >2.0
urn are formed by mechanical processes such as grinding or ruboing—for
example soil, street dust/ and rubber tire wear—and by  evaporation of
liquid droplets.  Accumulation mode particles do not continue to grow into
coarse particles, however, because the more  abundant small particles have
a higher gas-aerosol collision rate and dominate the condensational growth
process.  Sulfates formed by the conversion  of SC^ are found in the accumu-
lation mode; MgS04 from sea salt, Na2S04 from paper pulping, and CaS04 from
gypsum are found in the coarse particle mode.

     The processes governing aerosol dynamics are understood qualitatively
and some effort has been made to interpret aerosol dynamics in smog chamber
studies (Friedlander 1978).  Models of aerosol dynamics  have been developed but
these need to be tested quantitatively with  chamber and  ambient data  (Miksad
et alr 1978).  The aerosol growth laws predict different aerosol sizes for the
different reaction mechanism.  If the model  is confirmed, tnese differences
could be used to determine whether growth is by condensation of vapors
formed by homogeneous gas phase reactions, reaction in liquid droplets,
or absorption on particle surfaces.

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                                     -36-
V.  FIELD INVESTIGATIONS

    A.  Direct Emissions

        Emissions from combustion sources are characterized in terms
of particulate matter and gases.  The physical and chemical properties
of these emissions include:  organic and inorganic particulate matter
and gases, particles of varying size distribution, and particulate
matter with optical properties and trace element content.   Measurements
have been conducted to quantify and to characterize emissions that
result from different operating conditions.   Operations that potentially
impact in a significant manner on the emission and that are being
addressed in various field studies are:  emission control  systems,
excess oxygen for combustion, combustion modification, type of fossil-
fuel (gas, lignite coal, and oil), and the sulfur and trace metal
concent in the fuel.  Coal utilization will involve fuel switching,
mainly from gas and oil to coal.  A selected but limited number of
field studies have been conducted to date to measure and characterize
emissions from combustion sources under different operating conditions.
The data resulting from such studies will provide insight  on the impact
on emissions as a result of fuel switching from oil to coal, particu-
larly for various levels of sulfur content.

Characterization of Emissions

        Data characterizing emissions from coal-fired sources, are
presented with emphasis on particulatejnass loading, particle size
distribution, particle composition, S04, SO-, NO , and polynuclear
organic matter (POM).

Particulate - Mass emission rates for particulate matter have been
measured for a number of combustion sources with three different
types of particulate control equipment (Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, 1977).  The range of emissions for the various control
systems were as shown in Table 3.

                               Table 3

Control System          Particulate Emission Rate (LBS/million BTU input)

Electrostatic                           0.01 to 0.26
  Precipitators
Baghouses                               0.0014 to 0.1
Venturi Scrubbers                       0.019 to 0.19 (used with FGD controls)

Particle Size Distribution - Both monomodal and bimodal size distributions
have been reported for emissions from coal-fired combustion sources
with and without electrostatic precipitators (Littman et al, 1977; Gooch
and Marchant, 1977; Nichols and McCain, 1975).  Monomodal  peaks appear
in the 1 to 10 urn range.  It is probable that the use of an impactor

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                                    -37-
without calibration of the upper stages failed to provide adequate data
to resolve a second peak (Nichols and McCain,  1975).   An impactor
with calibrated upper stages gave a bimodal distribution with a
peak in the submicron range (0.7 um) and another peak at 5 urn (Gooch,
and Marchant, 1977).  Additional data for emissions from industrial
and utility boilers showed bimodal distributions for  all five sources
measured.  Again, the upper size peak was in the 1 to 10 um range and
the lower size peak was in the 0.1 to 1.0 um range (Littman et al, 1977).

Electrostatic precipitators (ESP)  have a collection efficiency curve as
a function of particle size that shows a minimum in the U.I to 1 um size
range (Abbott and Drehmel, 1976).   In effect,  an ESP  can tend to smooth
out an incoming biinoaal distribution, especially if the minimum in the
distribution coincides with the peak penetration of the ESP.   The
percent penetration is increased witn a decrease in the sulfur content
of the coal (Abbott and Drehmel, 1976).

Field studies on coal of particulate emissions downstream of
conventional venturi scrubbers on coal-fired boilers  have shown
efficient (98%) collection of large particles  down to about
2 um.  The efficiency arops of rapidly, to 90% at 1 um and about
10% at 0.3 um  (Calvert et al, lb»74).

Baghouses are very efficient particulate control devices, having
efficiencies in excess of 98% for particles down to and less than
0.3 um (Harris and Turner, 1973; MeKenna, 1974).

Particle Composition - Field studies have characterized particulate
composition on oulk samples (Bennett and Xnapp, 1976; Ragaini and
Ondov, 1976; Henry et al, 1976) and on size-fractionated samples
(Ragaini and Ondov, 1976; Gladney et al, 1976; Block  and Ondov,  1976).
As many as 41 elements have been measured in the flyash (Block and
Ondov, 1976).  The concentration distributions for all 13 elements
discussed showed bimodel distribution with a distinct minima in the
region 0.31% included Si, Al, Na, K, Ca, Fe,  C, and 3.  Trace
elements >0.01% included ing, Ti, Ni, Cr, Mn, Ba, Cu,  and Sr (Henry
et al, 1976).

Variations in reported values on relative concentrations in bulk
sample measurements and on size distribution of specific elements
can be attributed to a number of factors.  These include:  different
sensitivities in the analytical techniques used, i.e., neutron
activation, x-ray fluorescence, emission spectroscopy, and atomic
absorption; different size-fractionating capabilities in various
types of sampling procedures and equipment used; differences in
sample preparation procedures; and variation in the combustion sources,
control equipment, and coal composition.

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                                   -38-
Polynuclear organic material (POM)  measurements were conducted  on
emissions from 3 large coal-fired power plants (Jones et al,  1977).
Total POM concentration was in the  range of 28 to 30 ng/Jto3;  and
the BAP fraction was 0.2 to 0.3 ng/Nm3.

Nitrogen Oxides (NQx) - Studies have been made on the control of
nitrogen oxides emissions by combustion modifications (Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards, 1976; Cato et al, 1976; Schmidt
et al, 1976) and the impact on emissions for large coal-fired steam
generators  ( 200 MW output) and for smaller industrial boilers.
For the large utility boilers, the  toOx emissions under normal operating
conditions  (4 to 7.3% ©2) range from 0.56 to 0.65 LBS/million BTU
input (Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, 1976).   Witn
combustion modifications the range  of emissions is 0.25 to 0.66,
depending upon the reduced level of combustion air (2 to 5% 02),
burner design, and configuration of firing in the boiler.   Reductions
of 30 to 5U% in NOX emissions from industrial boilers have been
achieved (Cato et al, 1976).  Ccrobustion modification can be  made
on both utility and industrial boilers without significant impact
on concurrent emissions of  (HC, CO, S02) gaseous pollutants (Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards, 1976; Cato et al, 1976).
However, measurements made of fine  particulate emissions showed
that NOX control caused an increase of particles in the submicron
size range  (Cato et al, 1976; Schmidt et al, 1^76)  and the presence
of caroonaceous particles  (predominating in the sizes <0.4 un)  as
compared to the normal combustion condition (Schmidt et al, Iy76).
The reduction in IsiOx emissions from industrial boilers was accompanied
by an increase in particulate loading of 5 to 50% (Cato et al,  1976).

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) - Field studies conducted on combustion  sources
that burned low (1.5%) and high (4.2%) sulfur coal gave a range of S02
emissions of 2.1 to 6.7 LB/million BTU input (ESRL, 1977a).  These
sources had ESP particulate control but no SO2 controls.  Data  are
being collected currently on sources with S02 controls and burning
coals of various sulfur content.

Sulfate - Sulfur trioxide  (SO^) - Sulfuric acid (^04), and  sulfate
compounds are measured in combustion source emissions as total  water
soluble sulfates (TWSS)  (Barnes et al, 1976).  Field studies  on
coal-fired boilers without S02 controls but witn ESP particulate
control substantiate that emissions of TWSS are in the range  of
1 to 2% of the sulfur in the fuel  (Homolya et al, 1976; IERL, 1*77)
as presented in the emissions handbook  (US EPA, 1975).  The ESP
control reduces the TWS3 emissions oy a factor of about 2 (Homolya
et al, 1976).  A few measurements of emissions downstream of  wet
scrubbers for S02 control show qualitatively that TWSS penetrate
these controls (ESRL, 1977; Bachtel, 1977).  More studies are needed
to establish quantitatively the impact of S02 control on TOSS emissions.
Use of high sulfur fuel on the basis that flue gas desulfurization

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                                 -39-
 (FGD) will keep S02 emissions within bounds may,  in effect,  permit
a significant increase in TWS3 emissions, proportionate to the
increase of the sulfur in the fuel.

Visible Emissions - Emission standards on visible emissions are 20%
opacity on plumes from coal-fired power plants (Federal Register,
1971).  The presence of sulfuric acid (ri2SC>4)  in the gas phase at
stack gas temperatures has no impact on in-stack opacity measurements
but it may impact on plume opacity as it condenses at ambient temperatures.
In oil-fired combustion sources, the impact of H2S04 in plume opacity
is significant (23% to 54% in tne plume versus 13% in the stack)  (Conner,
1976).  In sources burning low sulfur coal (>2.5%3)  and having
electrostatic precipitators, plume and stack opacity measurements
have not shown significant differences.  Measurements are currently
underway on sources burning high sulfur coal (>3%S)  with ESP control
and on similar sources with wet scrubbers.  The impact of H2S04 on
plume opacity is affected by the relative concentration of other
particulate matter which is a function of the ash content of the
fuel and the presence and efficiency of any particulate control system.

Impact on Emissions with Fuel Switching to Coal

     Results of recent field studies with emphasis on SOx emissions from oil-
and coal-fired combustion sources  (HEW, 196:4)  are summarized in Table 4.
Low particulate, S02, and 804 emission rates are associated generally
with low sulfur fuel and similarly, high emission rates for  high sulfur
fuels.  Switching from low sulfur oil (1.2%) to coal of about the  same
sulfur level (^1.5%) shows about a factor of 6 increase in the p§rticulate
emission rate, a factor of about 3 in S02, and about the same 304  emission
rate.  Switching from high sulfur oil (2.b%) with high vanadium content
to high sulfur coal (4.2%) shows the same particulate emission rates
 (0.17), about a factor of 2 increase in SC^, and a slight decrease in 304.

                           Table 4

            Data on Particulate, S02, and SOT Emissions from
                 Oil- and Coal-Fired Combustion Sources

       Fuel                              Emissions

                            ^articulate
                              Matter          S02       S04        Remarks

        S(%)     V(ppm)
Oil   1.2-2.5    10-50      0.014-0.17      0.77-2.5  0.02-0.33 No part,  or  SO
                                                                    control
Coal  1.5-4.2    10-35      0.019-0.17      2.1—6.7  0.03-0.25 Part, control but
                                                                  no S02 control

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                                  -40-
Data on coal-fired sources with S02  controls  are needed  to provide a
more complete picture on Table 4.  Also,  the  limited amount of data
in Table 4 at this time provides more of  a qualitative indication than
a comprenensive quantitative measure.  The variations in operating
parameters ate not adequately represented to  indicate the effect of
switching under optimum conditions for each type of fuel.

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                                    -41-
V.  FIELD INVESTIGATIONS

    B.  Plume Transport

        Introduction - Sulfate aerosols have been implicated in a
variety of adverse ecological and human health effects.   The known
adverse health effects of sulfur dioxide (S02)  led to the control
of this pollutant (HEW, 1969).  However, reductions in urban S02 emissions
and concentrations, which were produced by the mandatory use of
low-sulfur fuels, were not accompanied by a proportional decrease in
urban sulfate (EPA, 1975).  This observation may be explained by the
transformation-transport theory.  Reductions in urban S02 emissions
have been accompanied by increases in rural S02 emissions from  new
power plants located outside cities.  Sulfur dioxide from these power
plants may be transformed to sulfate in the atmosphere and transported
over long distances to urban areas.  Interest by the U.S.E.P.A. in
the transformation-transport theory led to a major expansion of existing
studies by establishing Project MISTT (Midwest Interstate Sulfur
Transformation and Transport).  The technical approacn of Project
MISTT is to study the transformations of S02 to sulfate  in polluted
air masses undergoing transport.  The intent is to measure pertinent
cnemical and meteorological parameters with sufficient accuracy so
that they may be used with physical and mathematical models to  derive
rate parameters which characterize tne transrormation processes.
This research should also give insight into transformation mechanisms and
serve as a guide for related laboratory studies.  Both power plant and
urban plumes are being studied.

Plume Studies

     Information on the rate of conversion of S02 to suflate in power
plant plumes was needed to quantify the contributions of power  plants
to atmospheric sulfates.  A critical review of plume studies (Wilson
et al, 1977) revealed no reliable information on conversion rates, and
only two studies provided information on the amount of S02 converted to
sulfate.  To obtain a better understanding of the physical and  chemical
processes occurring in power plant plumes, extensive studies involving
three-dimensional mapping of large plumes were carried out in the
St. Louis area as part of the Project MISTT.

Flume Mapping Program

     Two instrumented aircraft, an instrumented van, and three  mobile
single-theodolite pilot-balloon units were used in a coordinated
measurement program.  The primary sampling platform was  a single-engine
aircraft equipped to continuously monitor (1)  gaseous pollutants
(03, NO, NOX, S02), (2) three aerosol parameters (condensation-nuclei
count, light-scattering coefficient, and aerosol charge  acceptance),
(3) several meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity,
dew point, and turbulent dissipation), and (4)  navigational parameters.

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                                   -42-
Particulate sulfur samples were collected by a sequential  filter-tape
sampler equipped with a respirable-particle size separator (Husar et al,
1976).  An optical counter and an electrical-mobility analyzer provided
details of the in situ particle-size distribution of grab  samples
(White et al, 1976).  The flight pattern of the primary aircraft was
designed to enable characterization of the plume at discrete distances
downwind from the source.  At each distance, horizontal traverses
were made in the plume perpendicular to the plume axis at  three
or more elevations.  These were supplemented by vertical spirals
inside and outside the plume.  The instruments continuously monitored
the distribution of pollutants along each pass.  From the  three-
dimensional pollutant concentration field obtained in this manner,
together with the vertical profiles of wind velocity measured every
half-hour by the three pilot baloon units, the horizontal  flow
rates of pollutants at each downwind distance were directly calculated.
From the change in flow rate with distance, it is possible to calculate
transformation and removal rates for individual pollutants (Husar et al,
1978).

Plume Study Techniques

     One of the most important advances has been the realization that a
plume measurement must be treated as a multi-dimensional problem.  In
addition to the extent of the plume in the horizontal and  vertical
direction and the downwind distance, we must consider time as a fourth
dimension.  We must be concerned not only with the time at which the
plume is measured, but also the time at which the plume was emitted and
the subsequent history of the plume.  For example, it may  have been a
cohesive plume prior to measurement or it may have been hignly diluted
witn background air; it may have been isolated above the mixing layer
or it may have been well mixed to the ground; it may have  traveled at
night, under cloud cover, or in bright sunlight.  Much of  the early work
on plumes has yielded misleading values oecause the measurements were
made only in cohesive plumes early in the morning or late  in the evening.

     The EPA plume studies differed from earlier ones in that  (1) more
gas and aerosol parameters were measured, (2) horizontal and vertical
profiles were measured,  (3) data were interpreted in terms of mass
flows instead of concentration ratios, (4)  the background  air mixing
with the plume was characterized, (5) the chemical composition and
size distribution of the aerosols in the plume were determined, and
(6) measurements were made at the same distance downwind as the plume
shape and structure changed with changes in meteorological conditions.

     The use of mass flow rate measurements, in addition to SOVsulfate
ratio measurements, permits a determination of the loss of SC>2 oy ground
deposition.  This technique makes it possible to determine rates during
periods when the plume is well mixed to the ground and the SOVsulfate
ratio measurements alone would yield erroneously nigh rates.  The
development of a sulfate analytical technique with sufficient sensitivity
for a measurement integrated over one pass througn a plume made possible

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                                     -43-
the calculation of sulfate mass flows.   On the basis of  size distribution
profiles, aerosol volume flows were calculated and the results compared.
The coirparisons gave insight into the type of reaction mechanism.

Scientific Results

     The Urban Plume.  The techniques just described were used to map
the three-dimensional flow of aerosols and trace gases in power plant
plumes and in the air leaving the St. Louis area.   It  was found tnat
under certain summer, daytime, meteorological conditions, the aggregate
pollutant emissions from metropolitan St.  Louis often  formed a cohesive,
well-defined "urban plume" downwind of the city.  (Husar  et  al, 1976;
White et al, 1976).  As shown in Figure 1  the 18 July  1975  urban plume
was mapped to 180 km northeast of St. Louis.  Flow rates within the
mixing layer are shown in Figure 2 for  0^, sulfate, and  light scattering
aerosols.  The width of the plume, approximately 40 km,  did not change
much along the 150-km-distance over whicn  it was obtained.  The a.iiount
of plume spreading is less than predicted  and is probably controlled
by the amount of wind shear within the well-mixed layer.  It appears
likely that the elevated ozone concentrations in this  plume and the
reduced visibility caused by the plume were exported well beyond 180 km.

     During a number of experiments in 1974 and 1975,  tne St. Louis
plume was observed to significantly degrade the air quality of
communities more than 200 km from the city.  The most  conspicuous
components of the St. Louis plume 50 km or more downwind of the city
were the reaction products formed along the way.   Unlike the primary
pollutants NO and S02, ozone and light-scattering aerosols  attained
their maximum concentrations well downwind of St.  Louis  and their
flow rates increased with distance from the city.

Power Plant Plumes

     A small amount of conversion of S02 to sulfate appears to result
from adsorption of S02 onto plume particulate matter.  The  amount depends
on surface area and ceases as soon as active adsorption  sites are covered
or the liquid coating becomes acidic (Judeikis, 1977).  For plumes from
modern power plants with efficient particle removal equipment this
amounts to the order of 1% of the S02 emitted (Newman  et al, 1975).  Further
reaction of S02 in the cohesive plume is inhibited because  the particles
are too acidic to dissolve more S02 and w"0x is preferentially oxidized
to aK>2-  A3 the plume disperses, 03 in the background  air mixes into
the plume and converts the NOX to N02.   The background air  may also bring
in NH  to neutralize acid droplets.  In the dispersed  plume therefore
both gas and liquid pnase reactions may begin to convert S02 to sulfate.
In the power plant plumes which have been  completely analyzed, the
rate of conversion was 1/2% per hour or less at night  and in early
morning and late evening (Husar et al,  1978; Durham et al,  1977).
During the middle of the day, however,  plume conversion  rates increase

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                                   -44-
to as hign as 5% hour^(Kusar et al,  1978).   Since ooth dispersion
and photochemically-generated radicals (OH,  H02/  R02)  increase
with sunlight intensity it is not possible to Definitely state
whether gas phase or liquid phase reactions  were  rate  controlling.
However, condensation nuclei counts  and aerosol size distribution
profiles suggest tnat the major pathway is a homogeneous reaction,
first order in S02/ and probably involving the OH, H02,  and f£>2
radicals.  The reaction rate certainly depends on sunlight intensity
and appears to also depend on water  vapor concentration, background
ozone levels, and the extent to which the plume has mixed with
background air.  The pollutant profiles, in  both  power plant and
urban plumes, resemble those observed in chamber  studies and suggest
that the current chemical kinetic models can be used to  calculate
sulfate formation.

     Heterogeneous reactions may be  important at  night,  in clouds, or
other conditions during which high water vapor content and high relative
humidity may lead to the existence of liquid droplets.  Attempts to
make nighttime measurements during the summer of  1975  were frustrated
by difficulties in locating the plume.  The  use of lidar during the
summer of 1976 made it possible to locate the plume but  usually dry
conditions led to nighttime relative humidities substantially lower than
normal.  Therefore, the data analyzed to date does not allow any
conclusions regarding heterogeneous  reactions. There  are, however,
several qualitative indications suggesting that under  proper conditions
heterogeneous reactions may be important and may  lead  to rates  signifi-
cantly greater than the 5% per hour  maximum  found for  homogeneous
reactions.  The key parameters governing heterogeneous reactions, in
addition to high relative humidities and high water vapor content, are
thought to be ozone and ammonia concentrations, concentrations  of
catalytic species in aerosol form, and the extent of mixing with background
air.

Transport Distances

     The time and distance over which an air mass maintains its integrity
depends on its initial size and the  meteorological conditions.  Power
plant and urban plumes have been tracked for 300  km.  These plumes
maintain their integrity and hign pollutant  concentrations for  much longer
times and farther distances than originally  expected.  During stable
nighttime conditions, the cohesive plume is  frequently caught in a
nocturnal jet which carries it along at as much as twice the normal
wind speed.  Gaussian plume models are satisfactory for  the first few
10's of km, but beyond that wind shear seems to play the dominant role in
determining dilution.  In urban plumes, wind shear is  clearly the
determining factor.

-------
                                   -45-
Models

     Models, of several levels of complexity,  have been developed  for
calculating secondary pollutant concentrations in power plant and  urban
plumes.  These include a multi-step chemical kinetic model  and a
reacting plume model with relatively simple mixing parameters but
with provisions for aerosol formation,  coagulation, and growth.  In
addition, a model has been developed using a sulfate formation rate
that is a function of sunlight intensity and that has more  sophisticated
meteorological terms including multi-layers for vertical  diffusion
and dry deposition.

Future work

     The present study has concentrated mainly on sulfate,  ozone and
light scattering.  Plans call for extending the EPA plume studies  to
include measurements of organics, and nitrate aerosols  and  vapors  such
as nitric acid.  To determine the importance of heterogeneous reactions,
more work is needed under conditions of high relative humidity and high
water vapor content, which are conducive to heterogeneous reactions.  In
general more information is needed to provide better statistics on the
parameters that influence reaction rates in power plant and urban  plumes.

Summary

     Power plant and urban plumes have  been sampled out to  300 km  from their
sources.  Sampling at these distances revealed that sulfate, generated
from SO2 in power plant plumes, "and ozone, generated from hydrocarbons
and nitrogen oxides in urban plumes, may be transported at  least hundreds
of km and may cause air pollution episodes far from the source of  pollution.
Air pollution, caused by secondary pollutants, such as  sulfates and ozone,
cannot be controlled by the government  entity where the air pollution
impact actually occurs.  Therefore, current concepts of air quality
control regions must be revised to take into account the  long range
transport of secondary pollutants.

-------
                                 -46-
VI.  EFFECT OF HEP OM SOURCE EMISSIONS

     The purpose of this section is to analyze the potential effect of NEP
on the magnitude and location of emissions from both steam electric and
industrial plants in the eastern U.S.  and to develop the emissions inputs
to the regional dispersion modeling in Section VII.   The effects  of NEP
on other source categories and on the  western U.S. is not  analyzed in this
paper.  However, since the effect of NEP on the western states may be signifi-
cant (EBRD, 1977) it seems very important to extend  this analysis to include
that region in the near future.

     Projections of the magnitude and  locations of steam electric plant
emissions have been made as part of the Integrated Technology Assessment
of Electric Utility Energy Systems conducted by Teknektron, Inc., for the
EPA Office of Energy, Minerals, and Industry for a range of potential energy
and environmental control policies (Smith, 19/7).  These emission projec-
tions nave been analyzed as part of the Air Quality  Impact Assessment
Model (AQIAM) of the tne ITA (Niemann, 1977).  In that  analysis,  it
was found to be convenient and appropriate for long-range  transport
analyses to aggregate the emissions over individual  steam  electric units
in each county and designate the county as a "hot spot" if those  aggregate
SO 2 emissions were greater than 5 x 10~7kg/yr.

     A comparison of S02 "hot spots" projected the AQIAM under a  reference
and a high coal use energy policy and  under environmental  controls
mandated by the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments is presented in Figure 14,
which shows the following significant  features:

    (1)   The hignest density of "hot spots" under both  scenarios  and
         both years is in the Upper Ohio River Basin;

    (2)   Ten "hot spots" which dissapear after 1985  under  both
         scenarios are generally scattered around the eastern U.S.
         except for the St. Louis area where two such hot  spots are
         found; and

    (3)   Eight other "hot spots" which appear in different combinations
         of scenarios and years are also scattered around  the eastern U.S.

     The ITA high coal use scenario is nearly the same  as  the NEP at this
date except for a slight difference in the assumed growth  rates from 1975
to 1985 and a more significant difference in assumed growth rates from
1985 - 2000.  In addition, the publically owned utilities  and the states
of Nebraska and Tennessee were omitted in the version of the AQIAM used
here.  The NEP growth rates (EPA version) and the missing  utilities and
states have been incorporated in an improved version of the IAM as part
of the New Source Performance Standard Review project being conducted
for EPA by Teknekron.  When the new IAM runs become  available they will
be processed in the AQIAM and used to  replace the results  in Figure 20.

-------
                     -47-
                         Figurel4

                         >f Count ie

end HCU-CAR in 1985 ond 1995 from the Impoct Assessment Model
Comparison of SO.. "Hot Spor Counties Under Scenarios REF-CAR
                                 U7.AKJO.
                                                  Counties with high SO. emissions
                                                  (£5 x I07 Kg) under;
                                                 •  Both scenarios in both years

                                                 A  Both scenarios in  1985 only

                                                 *  Only one year of one scenario
                                                    or all years except HCU-CAR
                                                    1995	            	
                                                 TVA plants*
                                                 •  >I,500V,W

                                                 »  800-1,500 MW
                                                  Included because the first-year
                                                  ITA data base did not include
                                                  TVA or publicly-owned utilities.  [

-------
                                  -48-
     Unfortunately, there is currently no IAM for the industrial sector—
that is, there is no model capable of predicting the magnitude and locations of
industrial plant emissions using the same basic "from the individual unit
up" methodology of the electric utility ITA.  However, future industrial-
source emissions have been projected using the EPA/ERDA Technology Assessment
Modeling Program (TAMP) (ERDA, 1977) for the NEP scanario.  No formal
descriptions or analysis of these TAMP outputs are currently available,
so their use here is considered preliminary.  TAMP provides only a very
limited amount of disaggregation of tne nationwide emission projections,
namely just for the Federal regions and individual states.  The methodology
used to disaggregate the state-level TAMP industrial emissions to the
county level for use in preliminary air quality impact analyses has been
described previously (Smith and Niemann, 1977).  Briefly, the ITA county
siting weights for future steam electric plants were used at first guess
as to the locations of new coal fired industrial plants.

     tore direct information on coal conversion for both industrial and
steam electric plants can be gleaned from the orders published by the
Federal Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act (ESECA)  of 1974.
The recent FEA/ESECA orders (Federal Energy News, 1977)  and the analysis
of cnanges in emissions for about 60 plants (PEDCO, 1975 - 1976)  have
been incorporated in this analysis.

     A summary of the FEA/ESECA information and the ITA county siting
weights used to apportion the TAMP (NEP) emissions is presented in
Table 3.  Generally, the state TAMP emissions were divided,by the total
number of highly probable siting weights for all fuel types plus the number
of FEA/ESECA plant orders unless specific emissions for tne latter were
availaole.  In that case, these specific conversions or new plant
emissions were subtracted from the TAMP and LAM emissions before dividing
by the numoer of county siting weights plus the number of FEA/ESECA
plant orders for which specific plant emissions were unavailable at
the time of this paper.

     It is of interest to compare the emissions from TAMP, NEDS,  and the
IAM since the dispersion model calculations in Section III are most
sensitive to the emissions inputs.
/
     The comparisons of emissions in the state of Ohio for electric
utilities and industrial comoustion are presented in Tables 4 and 5,
respectively.  The comparisons in Table 4 show that generally all the
similar or nearly similar categories of electric utility emissions
compare quite well for both sulfur dioxide and particulates.

     The comparisons in Table 5 show that generally the similar or nearly
similar categories of industrial combustion emissions are different by
about a factor of 2 or both pollutants.  Similarly, there are a considerable
number of significant disagreements in the majority of the other  states in
Appendix A.

-------
                                  -49-
     The reasons for these discrepancies in the emissions data from
TAMP, NEDS, and IAM are currently being investigated  and will be
discussed in a latter version of this paper.

-------
                                          Table 5
Numbers of Industries and Electric Utilities Ordered by FEA/ESECA to Convert to Coal  and of Counties
Highly Probable for
the Siting of Coal-Fired Plants and the Number of These Used to Apportion TAMP (NEP) Emissions
Number of Highly Probable
Siting Counties by Fuel
•
State
Abbrev-
iation
AL
AR
> CT
DE
FL
GA
IL
IN
IA
. KS
KY
LA
ME
MD



Coal Only
13
10
0
3
8
11
15
17
18
10
18
15
3
6


Mlnemouth
Coal Only
0
1
0
0
0
0
11
0
1
0
2
0
0
1
Both Coal
and
Mlnemouth
Coal
2
0
0
0
0
0
10
5
2
0
0
0
0
1
FEA/ESECA Orders
to Major Industries


Existing
Industries
0
1
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
Industries
To Be
Constructed
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
Total Number of
Highly Probable
Siting Counties
and FEA/ESECA
Industrial
Orders Used To
To Apportion
Industrial TAMP
(NEP) Emissions
19
12
0
4
8
12
48
27
23
10
20
18
3
9
FEA/ESECA Orders
to Electric Utilities
Orders of
6/30/75 .
and
6/30/77
1
0
2
1
1
2
1
0
6
4
0
0
0
4


Potential
, Orders ,
0
1
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1

-------
                                                     Table 5 (Continued)
in
Numbers of Industries and Electric Utilities Ordered by FEA/ESECA to Convert to Coal
Highly Probable for
and of Counties
the Siting of Coal -Fired Plants and the Number of These Used to Apportion TAMP (NEP) Emissions
Number of Highly Probable
Siting Counties by Fuel
«
State
Abbrev-
iation
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
NE
Nil
NJ
NY
NC
OH
OK
PA
RI
SC



Coal Only
1
18
11
6
20
19
2
5
9
15
17
12
15
0
11


Mlnemouth
Coal Only
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
6
0
0
Both Coal
and
Mlnemouth
Coal
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
D
4
0
0
/
FEA/ESECA Orders
to Major Industries


Existing
Industries
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1

Industries
To Be
Constructed
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
2
0
1
Total Number of
Highly Probable
Siting Counties
and FEA/ESECA
Industrial
Orders Used To
To Apportion
Industrial TAMP
(NEP) Emissions
1
19
12
6
23
19
2
5
9
17
25
13
31
0
13
FEA/ESECA Orders
to Electric Utilities
Orders of
6/30/75
and
..fi/30/77
2
1
0
0
4
2
1
2
3
1
0
0
1
0
0
•
Potential
. flrdprs .
4
0
1
0
0
1
0
8
6
0
0
1
3
1
1

-------
                                                    Table 5 (Continued)
          Numbers  of Industries and Electric Utilities Ordered by FEA/ESECA to Convert  to  Coal and of Counties
fN
Highly Probable for
the Siting of Coal-Fired
Number of Highly Probable
Siting Counties by Fuel


.



State
Abbrev-
iation
, TM
' TX
VT
VA
WV
Ml








Coal Only
34
33
2
9
3
10







Minemouth
Coal Only
1
0
0
0
. 9
0





Both Coal
and
Minemouth
Coal
0
1
0
0
4
0
Plants and the Number of These Used to Apportion TAMP (NEP) Emissions
FEA/ESECA Orders
to Major Industries







Existing
Industries
0
0
0
4
1
0






Industries
To Be
Constructed
1
1
0
0
0
0
Total Number of
Highly Probable
Siting Counties
and FEA/ESECA
Industrial
Orders Used To
To Apportion
Industrial TAMP
(NEP) Emissions
36
36
2
13
21
10
FEA/ESECA
Orders
to Electric Utilities





Orders of
6/30/75 .
and
. 6/30/77 ,
0
p
0
3
0
1







Potential
Orders .
0
0
0
. 2
0
0

-------
                                   -53-
                             Table 6

          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                             in Ohio
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP - NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
1.82 x I09
1.65 x I09
1.31 x I09
1.83 x I09
1.90 x I09
1.93 x I09
1.54 x I09
1.46 x I09
1.30 x I09
1.47 x I09
1.30 x I09
(kg/yr*)
TSP
3.59 x I08
8.99 x I07
7.11 x I07
3.27 x I08
3.87 x I08
3.70 x I08
4.51 x I07
4.83 x I07
4.91 x I07
5.06 x I07
5.80 x I07
I tan: 907.18 kg
                                                               >R Teknekron, Inc.

-------
                                    -54-
                                 Table 7
            Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                                 in Ohio ,
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO-
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            A.81 x  10°
            6.28 x  I05
            8.54 x  I05
              2.29 x  I05
              6.12 x  I04
              6.24 x  I04
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            8.36 x  10-
            8.58 x  I0f
               1.08 x  !0C
               1.08 x  10*
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

-------
                                    -55-
VII.  SOURCE AIR QUALITY RELATIONS

      A.  Short-Range Relations

          In considering the short-range (within 20 km of the source)
impact from combustion sources, the direct emission of pollutants is of
concern rather than the formation of secondary pollutants.  Considering
the direct emission of sulfur dioxide, national ambient air quality
standards exist for both the annual average (80 ug m  )  and 24-hour
maximum not to be exceeded more than once per year (365 ug m~3).   For
moderate (stacks 50 to 100 m. high) to large (stacks greater than
100 m.) combustion sources, the 24-hour standard is generally the one
that is the most difficult to meet.

     Air quality dispersion models of the Gaussian type (assume  time
averaged plume concentrations to be distributed normally, Gaussian,
bell-shaped, in the crosswind and vertical) can be used to estimate
ground level concentrations of directly emitted pollutants for
various meteorological conditions.  The magnitude of the maximum
concentration and the distance to the maximum can usually be determined
quite well.

     Estimates from a dispersion model (Turner et al., 1976)  indicate
that for combustion sources with stacks in the vicinity of 70-100 meters,
the highest 24-hour concentrations seem to occur for days with a  high
wind direction persistence (not much wind direction variation),
with moderate wind speeds, 4-10 meters per second, and neutral
to slightly unstaole atmospheric stability (related to turbulence
level).  For combustion sources with stacks in the vicinity of
200 meters, the highest 24-hour concentrations seem to occur with
two or three hours with wind from nearly the same direction, with
light wind speeds, 1.0 to 2.0 meters per second and with moderately
to extremely unstable conditions.

     Concentrations are directly proportional to emission rates.   Thus
if emissions are reduced by 50%, concentrations are decreased by  50%
if other things are equal.  An example is a fuel containing half  the
pollutant of that in a previously used fuel.  However, changes in
amount of fuel fired will alter the effluent volume flow altering
plume rise.  Because of this plume rise factor, calculations have
indicated only small changes in maximum hourly concentrations in
spite of rather large changes in emissions due to fuel rate changes
(Irin and Cope, 1977).

     The impact of direct emissions of sulfates from combustion
sources may be estimated using dispersion models in the same way
that the impact of sulfur dioxide can be estimated.  This assumes
that the sulfates are fine particulates or liquid droplets (less
than 20 urn).

-------
                                  -56-
     Tne areas of short-range impact for the 24-hour averaging
time will generally be in the vicinity of 1 to 2U km from the
source.  Due to meteorological variation the area of impact will
shift location from day to day.  Conversion of fuel type at a
source will cause areas of impact under given meteorological
conditions to expand or contract dependent upon change in
emissions.  Establishment of new combustion sources must con-
sider that additional new areas of short-range impact will
result.

     Although greater utilization of coal is likely to occur at new
combustion facilities ratner than conversion at old facilities, it
may be of interest to take information from an actual facility, that
previously burned coal and presently burned residual oil of Venezuelan
origin, and make estimates of 24-hour S02 and directly emitted sulfate
for adverse meteorological conditions (representative of once a year).
The source is in a river valley and therefore has some terrain
complications.  For these estimates a similar source is assumed to
exist in gently rolling terrain with no topographical complications.

     The engineering information on the source is shown in Table 7.1
along with the projected concentration estimates.  The engineering
information is qualified by superscripts to indicate whether information
was obtained by stack sampling, from the owner of the source, from
engineering estimates, or speculative assumption.  Note that because
of the heat content, 65% more coal by weight tnan oil is burned for
the same electricity.

     Considering the physical height of the source is 108 meters, a
24-hour scenario of hourly meteorological conditions was selected from
those presented oy Turner, et al (1976).  This period (Day 20)  has
moderate winds (3.1 to 6.2 meters per second), quite persistent
wind direction varying only from 230 degrees to 310 degrees, and
stability ranging from moderately unstable (Pasquill 3)  in the day-
time to moderately stable (Pasquill F) for one nighttime hour.

     It was apparent from the meteorological data that receptor
locations centered around an azimuth of 290 degrees from the source
would be appropriate.  Models from the source of receptors, were
used to evaluate the distance to maximum concentration for
different meteorological conditions.  (Table 8 gives the source
characteristics and the results of the dispersion modeling performed
to estimate the maximum 24-hour concentration).  These concentra-
tion estimates from the dispersion model are considered accurate
to within a factor or two.  Note that cooler stack temperatures
with lower plume, associated with 80% control of the sulfur dioxide
emissions with flue gas desulfurization results in a 75% decrease
in 24-hour ground level sulfur dioxide.

-------
                                    -57-
Table 8.   Estimates of Maximum 24-Hour Concentrations from a
           Combustion Source (Oil versus Coal)



Production of Electricity, MW
Fuel Firing Rate, Kg/sec
Fuel Sulfur Content
by Weight, %
Fuel Heat Content, BTU/lb
EMISSION RATES, g/sec
S0?
c.
Sulfate
STACK PARAMETERS:
Height, m.
Diameter, m.
Exit Gas Velocity, m/sec
Effluent Gas Volume -
Flow, m /sec
Effluent Gas
Temperature, K
Estimated Max. 24-HR
• Concentration
(Adverse Meteorology)
of Directly Emitted -
Sulfur Dioxide, yg/m
Estimated Max. 24-HR
Concentration
(Adverse Meteorology)
of Directly Emitted 3
Sul fates, yg/m
Estimated Distance to
Maximum Concentration, Km.
OIL FIRED


100b
6.3b
L
1.6b
18572C
3
1953
a
8a

108b
4b
10. 5C

132C

453C

28j
tf
(14-55)k


1.2j
1,
(0.6-2.4)k


2.25
COAL FIRED
Without FGD

100C
10. 4C
i
2.7b'e
12383°
**
498a
afm
y >3

108b
4b
16. 2C

204C

433b

58J
^
(29-116)*


1.1J
i.
(0.6-2.2)*


2.75
With Flue Gas
Desulfurization (FGD)
100C
10. 4C

,./ 'e
12383°
(80% control )d
100 .
(20% control )a
8

108b
4b
14. 8C

186C

395d'h

14j
i.
(7-28)K


,.,
i.
(0.5-2.2)K


2.25
a Based on stack sampling.
b From owner of source.
c From engineering estimate
d Assumption
e 10% of fuel sulfur in ash, therefore 90% of fuel sulfur
available for conversion to S02 or Sulfate.
g Measured conversion of 0.5% - z.5% of fuel
sulfur to sulfate, assumed 1.25% converted.
h' 38°K (100°F) drop assumed with FGD.
j Dispersion estimate accurate within a factor of two.
k Factor of two range of answer

-------
                                  -58-
     The estimated 24-hour S02 concentration contriDutions  from
this one source for all three situations ranging from 7  to  116
ugnT3 are well below the primary national amoient air quality
standard of 365 ugm~3.  However, influences from other local
sources or the general pollutant levels in the air mass  have  not
been considered.  Concentration estimates of sulfur  dioxide
for other sources will vary considerably dependent upon  all of
the following:  stack height, stack gas temperature, amount of
fuel fired, sulfur content of the fuel, and efficiency of any
desulfurization equipment.

-------
                                    -59-
       B.  Regional Impacts *

           Teknekron's previous integrated analyses of emission,
air quality, and meteorological data suggested that an extension
of the sector-box model approach orginally used on the congressionally
directed analysis entitled Air Quality and Stationary Source Emission
Control (North and Merkhofer, 1975) would be appropriate for this
initial evalation of NEP.  Teknekron's improvements in the basis
sector-box model — for example, the provision for treating multiple
sources — have been described elsewhere (Gage, et al 1977); and a
schematic diagram of the new model is provided in Figure 22.  This
"sector-box model with source intensification" (SBSI) applies at
distances after emissions from individual sources have been well
mixed horizontally and vertically by the stronger winds and near-neutral
stability conditions associated with the most frequent extreme-persistence
conditions under the relaxed criteria.

           The direction and width of the extreme persistence sectors
are used to specify the emission sources downwind which should be in-
cluded and the rate of horizontal diffusion of each emission sources
within the sector.  This extensive use of meteorological data to infer
diffusion parameters for longer range transport is considered superior
to the other techniques currently used in trajectory and grid type
models (Hanna, 1977).  The conversion and removal chemistry in the SBSI
is assumed to be linear and is specified in a manner similar to that
in current trajectory and grid models (C.F. Wendell, Powell, and Drake,
1977).  The SBSI model inputs selected were as follows:

(1)  Mixing height was 1000 m and the transport speed was 7.1 ms~l.
(2)  The rate of conversion of S02 to MSC>4 was 2 percent per hour, and
the rates of dry deposition of SC>2 and MSC>4 were 1 cms"1 and 0.1 ons~l,
repectively.
(3)  Sector width 22.5 degrees.
(4)  The short range cutoff was made at 1 hour of travel time or ap-
proximately 25 km
(5)  The long range cutoff was made at 12 hours of travel time for approxi-
mately 300 km for 6 of the locations and at 18 hours of travel time or
approximately 450 km for Athens, Kansas City and Pittsburg.

           The source emission information for the over 200 counties
under the most frequent wind persistence sectors at the 9 locations
required over 2000 input cards to the SBSI model.  These model predic-
tions should generally be divided in half to produce conservative 24-
hour SCh and MSC>4 concentrations since the wind conditions used in the
SBSI model generally only persist for 12 hours.  Research in progress
at Teknekron indicates that persistence results from conventional
surface level weather data probably provide lower bound estimates of
   The estimates in this section are presently being checked in
   light of the acquisition of additional data bases that have
   recently become available.

-------
                                            -60-
                                       Figure  15

                   Schematic Diagram of the  Teknekron Sector Box
               with Source Intensification  of SO,/MSO>, ADCR Model
     Horizontal View
 Origin
 of Extreme
 Persistence Sector
                       C Hours
                   Origin
                 of Individual
                Point Sources
                                       10 or 12 Hours
18 or 20 Hours
     Side View
                                                                       Rain
                                                                        1 i  • •   —2
                                                                       ' ' '  ' !   Concentration
                                                                               Concentration
                                                  Dry   MSO  Dry  Wet
                                              Deposition Deposition Deposition  Deposition
Tall Stack Source
ADCR  Adv»ctlon Diffusion.Conv«r»ion And
                                                                               Teknekron, Inc.

-------
                                     -61-
the frequency and duration of extreme wind persistence when compared to
those obtained from true hourly average winds measured on tall towers.
In addition, these model predictions should be viewed as estimates of the
SCu and MSO^ levels above those levels produced by other sources upwind
of the sector origin and from urban and areas sources within the sectors.

           The sector-box model predictions were displayed using a 3-
dimensional plotting routine developed jointly by Teknekron and the
Lawrence Berkely Laboratory (Univeristy of California).  The sector-
box model predictions of SCL and MS04 levels under REF-CAR and HCU-CAR
in 1985 for the 5 outlying locations (Dallas, Kansas City, Athens, Detroit,
and Washington) are presented in Figures 16-19.

           Similarly, the sector-box model predictions of SCU and MS04
levels under REF-CAR and HCU-CAR in 1985 for the four other locations
(Peoria-Springfield, Huntington, Pittsburg, and New York) are presented
in Figures 20-23.  These figures show generally the same maximum con-
centration levels under the different scenarios for the two respective
pollutants.  However, the distribution of concentrations within the sectors
show some differences between the two scenarios for SCU at Athens and
Washington.

           The differences in maximum SCU and MSO, concentrations between
the reference and the high coal use (NEP) scenarios in 1985 for the 9
selected locations are presented in Table 9.  The only differences which
appear to be significant are those for the New York location.  The large
SC>2 concentration predicted for the Huntington sector under REF-CAR
is due to the influence of one large SCU emission source whose influence
is much less under the HCU-CAR scenario.

           The sector-box model predictions of SO? and MS04 levels under
REF-CAR and HUC-CAR in 1995 for the 5 outlying locations are presented
in Figures 24-29.  These figures also show generally the same maximum
concentrations under the different scenarios for the two respective
pollutant.  However, the distribution of concentrations within the
sectors show some differences between the two scenarios for SCU at Athens
and Washington again.

           The differences in maximum SCU and MS04 concentrations between
the reference and the high coal use (NEP) scenarios in 1995 for 5 of the
9 selected locations are presented in Table 10.  The maximum SCVj concen-
trations under REF-CAR are greater than those under HCU-CAR at the Athens
and Washington locations while the maximum under REF-CAR at the other 3
locations are either equal to or less than the maximum under HCU-CAR.
The maximum MSO  levels under the two scenarios are the same or nearly
the same at these 5 locations.

           Since one of the most important input parameters to the SBSI
model is the SC^ to MS04 conversion rate, it is of considerable interest

-------
f
                                                         Figure 16

                            Sector Box Model Predictions of S00 Levels under REF-CAR 1n  1985
                                                                                                                100
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                            Figure 17


Sector Box Model Predictions of $00 Levels under  HCU-CAR In 1985
100
                                                                                   •JO

                                                                                        •u


                                                                                        o
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-------
                                                       Figure  18


                           Sector  Box Model  Predictions of MSO^ Levels  under REF-CAR 1n 1985

                                                                                                                   r-

                                                                                                                   u
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f
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                                                           Figure 19

                             Sector Box Model Predictions of MSO^ Levels  under HCU-CAR In 1985
10
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                                                          Figure 20
                            Sector Box Model Predictions  of SOo Levels under REF-CAR 1n 1995
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                                                           Figure  21


                              Sector Box Model  Predictions of S00 Levels under  HCU-CAR 1n 1995
                                                                                                                    103
                  -*— -  • i j i-*-• ^ iiui * *- 4_ *^- —V I 4 ~r-V

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                                                         Figure 22
                            Sector Box Model Predictions  of MS04 Levels under REF-CAR 1n  1995
                                                                                                                      a»
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I
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                             Figure 23


Sector Box  Model  Predictions  of MSO, Levels under HCU-CAR In  1995
                                                                                                                   VI

                                                                                                                   if.

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-------
                              -70-
                          Table 9

    Differences in the Maximum SO? and MS04 Concentrations
 Between the Reference and the High Coal Use  (NEP) Scenarios
              in 1985 for 9 Selected Locations
Scenario
Area
Maximum Concentrations

SQ2 (ug/m3 )     MS04 (ug/m3 )
REF-CAR Dallas, TX
Kansas City, MO
Athens, GA
Detroit, MI
Washington, D.C.
Peoria-Springfield, IL.
Hunt ing ton, WV
Pittsburg, PA
New York, NY
HCU-CAR Dallas, TX
Kansas City, MO
Athens, GA
Detroit, MI
Washington, D.C.
Peoria-Springfield, IL
Hungtington, WV
Pittsburg, PA
New York, NY
11
14
53
22
22
36
112
55
30
11
14
53
22
21
36
55
55
41
1
1
6
3
2
5
7
7
4
1
1
5
3
2
5
7
7
6

-------
                                                                 24
                           Sector Box Model Predictions of  SO.,  Levels under REF-CAR In 1995  .
                           for the Dallas. Kansas City, Athens, Detroit and Washington Areas
100
 3L
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 sr,
 CO
 7L
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-------
                                                 FIGURES
                         Sector Box Model Predictions of S02 Levels under HCU-CAR  In 1995

                         for the Dallas. Kansas City. Athens. Detroit and Washington Areas
i 03
             •f&iUMlUKiitii.
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                            FI

Sector Box Model Predictions of
                                                               Levels under REF-CAR In 1995
                          for the Dallas.  Kansas  City.  Athens.  Detroit and Washington Areas
                                                                                                                   L.

                                                                                                                   .U
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-------
                                                                27
                            Sector Box Model Predictions of MS04 levels under HCU-CAR In 1995

                            for the Dallas. Kansas City. Athens. Detroit and Washington Areas
                                                                                                              !•)
an
3L
H
Jt'
ID
c -j
i'C
JM
U

I'D
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If
l'4
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u
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^.
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«A
e.
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-------
                             -75-
                        Table 10
  Differences in the Maximum SCX» and MS04 Concentrations
 Between the Reference and High Coal Use (NEP) Scenarios
            in 1995 for 9 Selected locations
Scenario
HCU-CAR
  Area
Maximum Concentrations

S02 (ug/m 3)     MS04 (ug/m3)
REF-CAR Dallas, TX
Kansas City, MO
Athens, GA
Detroit, MI
Washington, D.C.
8
13
43
19
26
1
2
5
3
2
Peoria-Springfield, IL.

Huntginton, W

Pittsburg, PA

New York, NY

Dallas, TX

Kansas City, MO

Athens, GA

Detroit, MI

Washington, D.C.

Peoria-Springfield, IL.

Huntington, WV

Pittsburg, PA

New York, NY
         9

        13

        39

        23

        18
1

2

4

3

2

-------
                                  -76-
to examine the sensitivity of the predictions to expected variations in
the conversion rate.  The variations in conversion rate could be the
result of changes in solar radiation, background air quality, humidity,
etc.

           The differences in the maximum S02 and MSO^ concentrations
under HCU-CAR in 1985 at the Huntington and Pittsburg locations for
various S02 to MS04 conversion rates are presented in Table 11.  It may
be seen that the maximum SO  concentrations are influenced insignifi-
cantly while an 8-fold increase in rate from 0.5% to 4% per hour
results in a 7-fold increase in sulfate concentrations.  This essential
propertionalily between rate and sulfate increases occurs because of
the initial assumption of first order chemistry.  Additional sen-
sitivity analyses and comparisons to other models and data are presented
in Appendix B.

           The SBSI calculations using steam electric emissions that reflect
even stricter controls than under the Clean Air Act Revisions and using
industrial plant emissions scaled down to reflect similar stricter controls
on new industrial plants are currently in process.

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                                  -77-
                        Table 11

     Differences in the Maximum SC>2 and MS04 Concentrations
     under HCU-CAR in 1985 at the Huntington and Pittsburg
      locations for Various SC>2 to MS04 Conversion Pates
Conversion

Rate (%/hour)
Location
Maximum Concentrations

S02 (ug/m3)     MS04 (ug/m3)
0.5

1.0

2.0

4.0

Huntington, WV
Pittsburg, PA
Huntington, W
Pittsburg, PA
Huntington, WV
Pittsburg, PA
Huntington, W
Pittsburg, PA
57
56
56
56
55
55
52
53
2
2
4
4
7
7
14
14

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                                    -78-
VIII.  ACIDITY IN PRECIPITATION

       This section is concerned with the deposition of pollutants with
precipitation, the composition of precipitation samples and relation-
ships to sources of emission.  The environmental effects of acid pre-
cipitation are considered in a separate paper on that subject.

     The acidity in precipitation has increased substantially over
the last two decades (NisDet, 1975; Likens,  1976).   The area impacted
also has increased over this period (Nisbet, 1975;  Likens,  1976).  The
lowest pH values are reported in the Northeastern United States particu-
larly at sites in the mid-Atlantic states and lower New England (Nisbit,
1975).  The geographic profiles for the regions of  lower pH measurements
resemble in some respects the profile for sulfate concentrations in  the
United States (Trajonis, 1975).

     The chemical species measured in precipitation by tne  several
networks operational in the United States include sulfate,  nitrate,
chloride, fluoride, phosphate, ammonium, calcium, sodium, magnesium,
potassium, aluminum, iron, other trace metals and organic acids
(Ziegler, 1977).  However, it appears that the strong acids, sulfuric
acid and nitric acid, account for almost all of the free acidity (pK)
on a regional basis (Likens, 1976; Galloway et al,  1976).  Hydrochloric
acia may contribute to acidity in precipitation downwind of sources  burning
high chlorine content coals but not on a regional scale (Nisbit, 1975;
Likens, 1976).

     Deposition of acid sulfate species in precipitation occurs because
of oxidation of sulfur dioxide to sulfate in water  droplets as  well  as
from washout by rain or snow of acid sulfate aerosols and nitric acid.l
The former processes are likely to be slow except in highly contaminated
atmospheres where concentrations of the ammonia, and soluble iron and
manganese species can be high (Barrie et al, 1974).  The rates  predicted
for conversion of sulfur dioxide in droplets are show (0.2% hour"-'-), so
extended periods of oxidation appear to be necessary for in-cloud processes
to be important in sulfur dioxide oxidation (Barrie et al,  1S74).  Yet
another possibility is oxidation of sulfur dioxide  by oxygen and ozone
in water droplets particularly during nighttime (Hegg and Hobbs, 1977)
One important source of the ozone is the atmospheric pnotooxiaation
reactions to be discussed next.

     Homogeneous processes of oxidation of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric
acid in the presence organic vapors, nitrogen oxides and sunlight are
effective processes for oxidation of sulfur dioxide with theoretical
rates of up to at least 4% per hour possible (Calvert et al, 1977).
Nitric acid also is formed from these homogeneous photooxidation reactions.
Gay and Bufalini,  (1971; Spicer and Wilier, 1976).   The removal of a
water soluble vapor such as nitric acid by washout  should be quite
effective.  Acid sulfate can be emitted directly from coal  and
oil-fired sources  (Homolya, 1976) and thus can be wasnout downwind of
either urban sources or large point combustion sources.  Therefore,

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                                  -79-
both direct emissions of acid sulfates and secondary formation
by hemogeneous and heterogeneous atmospheric reactions of sulfuric
acid and nitric acid in plumes downwind of sources can provide
strong acids in precipitation.

     Acid precipitation in the nortneastern United States can be  associated
with washout of acids from air following trajectories through the midwestern
states and on to the mid-Atlantic-New England areas several  days  later.
Some trajectory analyses indicate that rainfall associated with trajectories
passing the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys north to the Great  Lakes arriving
in upper New Stork State 1-2 days later was more acidic than  the rainfall
associated with trajectories crossing from areas further  southwest (Nisbet,
1975).  Such results would be consistent with the large,  increasing
emissions of sulfur oxide and nitrogen oxides from tall stacks associated
with the multitude of large coal-fired facilities in the  midwest
ultimately contributing to acid precipitation in the northeast.

     The relative contribution of acid sulfates and nitric acid reported
are in the ratio of about 3 to 2 (Likens, 1976; Galloway  et  al, 1976).
In comparison, the ratio of nitrogen oxide to sulfur oxides  in
emissions from coal-fired facilities reported for a number of individual
midwestern AQCR^s range from 2:1 to 8:1 with most of the  ratios between
3:1 and 6:1 (EPA, 1974).  Variability is such that ratios will be expected
if the relative proportions of different types of combustion units (EPA,
1976) varied among AQCFfs.  The smaller ratio of the sulfuric to  nitric
acid in precipitation may well relate to differences in tne  rates of
formation and removal of nitric acid compared to acid sulfates.   That
is, nitric acid may be formed and removed more effectively than sulfuric
acid.  The contribution of nitric acid to precipitation also has  increased
relative to tnat of sulfuric acid during the last 20 years (Nisbet, 1975;
Likens, 1976; Ziegler, 1977).  This increase in aqueous nitrate levels
appears to correlate better than do aqueous sulfate levels with decreased
pH in precipitation during this period (Ziegler, 1977).

     A procedure for relating increases in acidity in precipitation to
changes in emissions has been proposed (Nisbet, 1975). The  approach
involves a large number of assumptions which can be briefly  summarized
as follows:  (a) the total amount of sulfates and nitrates deposited in
precipitation will vary in proportion to tall stack emissions of  SO  and
NO ,  (b) the proportion of acid will remain at about one-quarter  of total
sulfates and nitrates, but if emissions increase substantially the
neutralizing capacity in the atmosphere may be exhausted, so all  additional
sulfates and nitrates produced would be in the form of strong acid, (c)
the geographical distribution of sources in the eastern U.S. would not
shift significantly enough in the future to effect long-range downwind
precipitation removal,  (d) changes in the stack heights for  emission and
use of control systems will not affect the fractions of emitted sulfur
dioxide and nitrogen oxide ultimately converted to acids  (Nisbet, 1975).

-------
                                  -80-
     The results are most sensitive to the assumption on the proportion
of sulfate and nitrate in strong acid form (Nisbet, 1975).   If the
fraction of strong acid remained about constant, each 1% increase
in emissions would lead to about a 1% increase in acid in precipitation.
However, if neutralization capacity snould be exnausted, each 1%
increase in emissions could lead to about a 4% increase in  acid in
precipitation over the base case.  The increases to a good  approximation
are for tall stack emissions but include contributions from all fossil
fuels.  However, increments in fossil fuel capacity from 1977 or
for the source regions of concern are about 9U% coal-fired  (National
Coal Association, 1976).  Several studies have been made on the downwind
effects of individual power plants on acidity in precipitation (Hales
et al, 1971; Granat and Rodhe, 1973; Hogstrom, 1973; Li and Landsberg,
1975).  The results are not consistent in that some of the  work
indicates only a small fraction of the sulfur removed by precipitation
while other work indicates substantial losses.  These differences may
be explained at least in part by differences in rainfall rates (Li and
Landsberg, 1975).  Rapid depletion of acidic components can occur in
heavy showers as experienced in one of the studies, but not for low rain-
fall rates (Li and Landsberg, 197b).  It also is possible that tfie sub-
stantially varying amounts of directly formed particulate acid
sulfate were emitted from the several sources investigated  because
of differences in fuels and operating conditions.  If so, the concentration,
composition and particle size distribution might ftave varied sufficiently
to contribute to differences in precipitation profiles downwind.

     More effort is needed on analysis of samples from individual preci-
pitation events over a broader geographical area.  Local impacts need
to be better differentiated from regional scale effects. If the
neutralization capacity of the atmosphere for acid sulfates and nitric
acid in the eastern United States is marginal or if it varies with
season or meteorological trajectories over varying terrains, these
variations need to be understood.  They contribute about a  four-fold
uncertainty to the estimate of the relationship between source emissions
and acidity in precipitations.  Much more extensive results are needed
also on the effects of precipitation immediately downwind of large
.coal-fired facilities.

     Assessment of the emission levels (Mitre, 1977; Teknekron 1975)
of sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides for 19d5 and 2000 compared to 1975
suggests much larger increments in nitrogen oxides than sulfur oxides.
This result underscores the need to better understand the chemical
transformation of nitrogen oxides to nitrates and the role  of nitrates
in acid precipitation.

     Finally, it should be emphasized that dry deposition processes also
are important in the transfer of pollutants to the surfaces of plants,
soil and water.  In terms of some types of effects the impact of dry
deposition may be as important as precipitation.  Therefore, it is
critical that the separate and combined effects of precipitation and
dry deposition be understood.

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                                  -81-
IX.  ADLQUACY OF CURRENT DATA BASES FOR ATMOSPHERIC DISTRIBUTION

     A.  Present Data Collection Efforts

         Throughout the Eastern U.S., EPRI's SURE Program has fielded
54 stations aimed at measuring sulfate.  While this network will be
the source of much aata on sulfates over its three-year life, all
stations measure only total suspended particulate sulfate, except
nine multi-instrument stations which measure fractionated particulate
matter; hence information on fine particulates is based on inference.
Also, spatial resolution is fairly gross and the network, except
for the nine highly instrumented stations, operates for approximately
one month each quarter.

     ESRL Stations;  In tne Rocky Mountain States and Northern Great
Plains, £PA1s Energy/Environment Program has resulted in 76 stations
which analyze TSP for sulfate/nitrate.  Again, spatial resolution is
gross, but in this area the large distances between sources and
lack of complex sources tend to offset the problem.  Again, fine
particulate information is by inference.  However, fine particulate
monitors and visibility measurement devices will be fielded, under
currently requested supplementary funding.  Six fine particulate
test sites are operational in the Southwest under this study.  About
20 other samplers are in use in tne eastern United States.

     Present efforts will not be able to supply definitive, concrete
data on the regional distributions of secondary fine particulates
across the U.S.  Such a data base is a requirement for a rational
multi-regional pollution control strategy associated with any
National energy plan.

     *  See Attachment

     B.  Changes in Pollutant Distribution Associated with NEP

         Given the above discussion of the atmospheric transformation,
transport and fate of gaseous pollutants from coal combustion and
given that the NEP will markedly increase such emissions even with
improved control technology, it is certain that the NEP will result
in increased atmospheric levels of secondary aerosols (sulfuric
and nitric acid) and fine particulate (sulfur, nitrogen and organic
compounds).  This will be manifested as reduced visibility, broader
ecological impacts due to acid rain and more numerous and more
severe cases of deleterious health effects.

     The locations of the initial measurements would be in the area
of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, extending eventually to most of the
Eastern half of the U.S.; and in the Northern Great Plains and Rocky
Mountain States.  These are areas which will radically increase coal
combustion capacity under any coal-based NEP.

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                                     -82-
     In the Northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain States utility
capacity is planned to treole during the next eight years.   In the
Ohio River Valley utility capacity will also increase significantly
in 10-15 years.

     C.  Aerosol Analysis Requirements

         The secondary pollutants in question are fine particulate
matter analyzed for sulfur, nitrogen and organic compounds  as well  as
sulfuric acid and nitric acid aerosols with associated measurements
of visibility reduction and acid rainfall being taken as is appro-
priate to various "regional" situations.

     Also, research measurements of radical intermediates from non-
coal combustion sources should be measured where source distribution
and meteorology indicate that these can be important in enhancing the
transformation of primary coal emissions into secondary aerosol and
fine particulates.  Associated meteorological measurements  (humidity,
temperature, etc.) and solar flux will be maae.

     Spatial distribution of measurements would ideally be  less than
a few hundred kilometers apart to give adequate spatial resolution
of regional fine particulate levels downwind of source groupings while
stations would be more densely situated near clusters of sources.

     Temporal resolution in the secondary pollutant measurements
acquired must be sufficient to define daily and seasonal variations
as well as intermediate variations (on the order of a few days)
associated with changing weather patterns.  A three-hour averaged
measurement should suffice for daily resolution for study of transport
of pollutants.

     *  See Attachment.

     D.  Relationship of an Expanded Aerosol Data Base to NEP

         The establishment at this point in time of such a  scientifically
validated data base is a prerequisite to unambiguously determining:

     1)  the geographical distribution of secondary pollution levels
associated with existing coal combustion,

     2)  the alterations and trends in the distribution of  secondary
pollution levels due to the changes in the geographical pattern of
coal combustion due to new sources and to associated increased primary
pollutants resulting from NEP.

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                                    -83-
                         RECOMMENDATIGNS

1.  The siting decisions for large coal burning  facilities should take
    into account potential sulfate pollution owing to long range
    transformation and transport.

2.  The potential pollution problems  resulting from long range transport
    transcend the boundaries of existing  air quality control regions.
    Attention should be given to the  creation of an institutional mechanism
    for integrating siting and control decisions to minimize tne pollution
    impacts of regional transport.

3.  In view of the many gaps that  still exist in our ability to understand
    and predict the impact of the  NEP on  ground  level sulfate concentrations,
    visibility, and acidity in rainfall,  an air  monitoring network should
    be established to record air quality  changes over time and
    to signal any anticipated untoward impacts.

4.  Because of the particular importance  of acid sulfates and nitric acid
    in causing nealth effects, acid precipitation effects and materials
    damage much more extensive baseline measurements are needed for these
    particular species along with  other sulfates and nitrates.  Such base-
    line measurements also are essential  to air  quality model validations.

5.  It is essential that health and welfare effects studies' incorporate
    the most advanced measurement  systems for evaluating pollutant dosages
    of sulfate and nitrate species as soon as these techniques are adequately
    verified.

6.  Improved rapid response instrumentation is needed for sulfates and
    nitrates particularly instruments for aircraft measurement of plume
    characteristics.

7.  The potential for neutralization  of acid species by ammonia as a
    function of season, location and  meteorological conditions is poorly
    understood.  Since the proportion of  sulfates and nitrates in acid
    form is critical selected baseline measurements also are essential on
    neutralization phenomena. -The study  of this phenomenon should
    be one element of a coordinated research program to deal with the
    problem of acidity in rainfall.

8.  The measurements of the rates  of  conversion  of sulfur dioxide to sulfate
    are limited to data as functions  of season of year/ geographical location
    and various environmental parameters. An intensified program of research
    is needed over the next several years to insure that this parameter is
    available for regional air quality simulation models for sulfates.

9.  Current regional air quality simulation models usually do not contain
    mechanistic submodels.  They are  not  able to predict effects of varying
    precursor concentration or neutralization effects.  Development of such
    improved models should keep pace  with the acquisition of the baseline
    data.
                                                                              c

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                                   -84-
10.  Studies snoula be carried out to assess the significance of tne
     FGD-total water soluble sulfates relationship to  insure that such
     second order effects that may exist can be properly factored into
     sulfate transport predictions.

-------
                                  -85-
                           CONCLUSIONS
     Source Controls will keep the short range impacts of gaseous
and aerosol pollution below the levels of ambient air quality standards.
Likewise sulfate emissions from individual sources will not  by  themselves
create an air quality problem.  Problems of short range impacts can be
avoided by judicious local setting controls that can be justified on
the basis of ambient air quality standards.

     Sulfates in the emissions from sources can be transported  hundreds
of kilometers.  Sulfate emissions from diverse sources can as a result
of long range transport be superimposed on each other to create episodes
of air pollution far from the contributing sources.

     Emissions from large coal-fired facilities present the  risk of
degrading visibility particularly in relatively pristine areas  in
the west.

     Increase emissions of sulfates and nitrates could, depending
upon as yet determined chemistry and meteorology of  the atmosphere,
increase the problem of acidity in rainfall in selected areas of the
country.

     Laboratory studies have indicated that the photochemical
conversion of SC>2 to sulfates is a first order homogeneous reaction
in S02 and these rates are consistent with rates observed in plumes.

     Existing monitoring data is inadequate to provide a base line
from which future changes regional air quality owing to long range
transport can be evaluated.

-------
                          References  - Section  II

 1.  Altshuller, A.P., Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide and Sulfate.  Distri-
     bution of Concentration at Urban and Non-urban Sites in United
     States.  Environ. Sci.  Technol.  1_,  709-12, 1973.

 2.  Altshuller, A.P., Regional Transport and Transformation of Sulfur
     Dioxide to Sulfates in the U.S.  APCA Journal, Vol. 26, No. 4, April
     1976.

 3.  Charlson, R.J.,  A.H. Vanderpol,  D.S. Covert, A.P. Waggoner and N.C.
     Ahlquist. H SO /(NH )  SO  Background Aerosol:  Optical Detection in
     the St. Louis Region.   Atmospneric  Environment, j3, 1257-1267, 1974.

 4.  Barnes, R.A., 1977:  Sulphur  Deposit Account.  Nature, 268, 14 July
     1977.

 5.  Position Paper on Regulation  of  Atmospheric Sulfates.  EPA-45U/2-75-007,
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C.
     1975.  108 pp.

 6.  Fondario, D. Case History of  a High Sulfate Air Pollution Episode.
     MA Thesis, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C. 1977.

 7.  Gage, S.J., L.F. Smith, P. Cukor, and B.L. Nieman.  Long Range
     Transport of SO  /MSO  from the U.S. EPA/Teknekron Integrated Tech-
     nology Assessment of Electric Utility Energy Systems.  Atmospheric
     Environment, 1977.

 8.  Hall, P.P. Jr.,  C.E. Duchon,  L.G. Lee and  R.R. Hagon.  Long-range
     Transport of Air Pollution:  A case study, August 1970.  Monthly
     Weather Review 101, 404-411,  1973.

 9.  Hidy, G.M., E.Y. Tong,  P.K. Mueller and C. Hakkarinen.  Airborne
     Sulfate Occurrences and Acre-metric  Variables in Regions of the United
     States.  Presented before tne Environmental Chemistry Division,
     American Chemical Society, New York, NY, April 4-9, 1S76.

10.  Husar, R.B., D.E. Patterson,  C.C. Paley and N.V. Gillani.  Ozone in
     Hazy Air Masses.  International  Conference on Photochemical Oxidant
     Pollution and Its Control. EPA-600/3-77-001a, pp. 275-8282, 1977.

11.  Husar, R.B., N.V. Gillani, J.D.  Husar and  D.E. Patterson.  A Study of
     Long Range Transport from Visibility Observations, Trajectory
     Analysis and Local Air Pollution Monitoring Data.  In:  Proceedings
     of the Seventh International  Technical Meeting on Air Pollution
     Modeling and Its Application, September 1976, Airlie House, VA.
     Report No. 51, NATO Committee on the Challenges to Modern Society.

12.  Lyons, W.A. and  R.B. Husar.  SMS/ODES Visible Images Detect a
     Syneptic - Scale Air Pollution Episode,  Modern Weather Review 1G4,
     1623-1626, 1976.

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13.  Lyons, w.A. and S.R. Pease.   Detection of ^articulate Air  Pollution
     Plumes from Major Point Sources Using EKTS-1  Imagery.  Bulletin of
     American I'ieteorological Society 54,  1163-1170,  1^73.

14.  OECD, 1977a:  The OECD Program on Long-Range  Transport  of  Air
     Pollutants—Summary Report.   Organization for Economic  Cooperation
     and Development, Paris, 1977.

15.  OECD, 1977b:  The OECD Program on Long-Range  Transport  of  Air
     Pollutants—Measurements and Findings.  Organization  for Economic
     Cooperation and Development, Paris,  1977.

16.  White, W.H., J.A. Anderson,  D.L. Blumenthal,  R.B.  Husar, N.v.
     Gillani, J .D. Husar and W.E. Wilson, Jr.  Formation and Transport
     of Secondary Air Pollutants:  Ozone  and Aerosols in the St. Louis
     Urban Plume.  Science 194:187-189, 1976.

17.  Wilson, W.E., Jr.  Sulfates  in the Atmosphere:   A Progress Report
     on Project MISTT (Midwest Interstate Sulfur Transformation and
     Transport).  Atmospheric Environment, 1978.

18.  Wilson, W.E., R.J.  Charlson, R.B. Husar, K.T. Whitby  and D. Blumenthal.
     Sulfates in the Atmosphere.   A Progress Report  on Project  MISTT
     (Midwest Interstate Sulfur Transformation and Transport).  EPA
     Report No. 600/7-77-021, U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency,
     Research Triangle Park, ri.C.  1977.  30 pp.

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                         References  - Section III
 1.  U.S. EPA Supplement No.  6  for Compilation of Air Pollution Emission
     Factors, Second Edition, OAWM, OAQPS, April, 1977, RTP, N.C.

 2.  R. L. Davison, D.F.S.  Natusch, J. R. Wallace, C. A. Evans, Jr., "Trace
     Elements in Flyash, Dependence of Concentration on Particle Size",
     Environmental Science  and  Technology 8y 1107  (1974).

 3.  E. S. Gladney, J.  A. Small, G. E. Gordan, W. H. Zoller, Composition and
     Size Distribution  of In-stack Particulate Material at a Coal-Fired
     Power Plant.  Atm. Environ. 10,  1081-77  (1976).

 4.  W. E. Wilson, R. J. Charlson, R. 6. Husar, K. T. whitby, D. Blumenthal,
     "Sulfates in the Atmosphere", ESRL, ORD, EPA, EPA-600/7-77-021, March,
     1977, RTP, N.C.

 5.  H. B. Barnes, C. R. Fortune, J.  3. Homolya, "An Evaluation of Measurement
     Methodology for the Characterization of Gaseous Sulfur Emissions from
     Combustion Sources", Presented at the Fourth National Conference on
     Energy and the Environment, Oct. 4-7, 1976, Cincinnati, Ohio.

 6.  H. B. Barnes, J. B. Homolya, C.  R. Fortune, "Characterization of Sulfur
     Oxide Emissions from an  Oil-Fired Power Plant in Louisiana", Unpublished
     Report, 1977.  Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory, RTP, N.C.

 7.  Federal Register,  Vol. 40, No. 194:46240-46271, October 6, 1975.

 8.  W. D. Conner, "A Comparison Between in-Stack and Plume Opacity Measure-
     ments at Oil-Fired Power Plants".  Presented at the Fourth National
     Conference on Energy and the Environment."  Oct 4-7, 1976, Cincinnati,
     Ohio.

 9.  J. S. Nader, "Source Monitoring", Chapter 15 in Air Pollution, Vol. Ill
     (Ed. A. C. Stern)  Third  Edition, Academic Press, 1976.

10.  J. B. Homolya, "A  Review of Available Techniques for Coupling Gaseous
     Pollutant Monitors to  Emission Sources, Chapter 13 in Analytical Methods
     Applied to Air Pollution (Eds. R. K. Stevens and W. F. Herget), Ann
     Arbor Puol., Ann Arbor,  Michigan, 1974.

11.  T. T. Shen and W.  N. Stasiuk, Performance Characteristics of Stack
     Monitoring Instruments for Oxides of Nitrogen, J. Air Poll. Control Assoc.
     25, 44  (1975)

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12.  J. B. Homolya, "Current Technology for Continuous Monitoring of
     Gaseous Emissions", J.  Air Poll.  Control Assoc.  25, 809  (1975).

13.  R. Rollins, "A Continuous Monitoring  System for  Sulfur Dioxide
     Mass Emissions from Stationary Sources", Presented at the 70th Annual
     Meeting of the Air Pollution Control  Association, Toronto, June
     20-24, 1977.

14.  W. P. Herget and rf. D.  Conner, "Instrumental Sensing of Stationary
     Source Emissions", Environ. Scj..  Technol.  11,  962  (1977).

15.  D. L. Blumenthal, J. A. Ogren, J. A.  Anderson, "Airborne Sampling
     System for Project MISTT".  Paper 78, Preprint Vol. II.  International
     Symposium on Sulfur in the Atmosphere, Sept. 7-14, 1977, Dubronik,
     Yugoslavia.

16.  J. D. Husar, R. B. riusar, E. S. Marcias, W. E. Wilson, J. L. Durham,
     W. K. Shepherd, and J.  A. Anderson, "Particulate Sulfur Analysis;
     Application to Nighttime Resolution Aircraft Sampling in Plumes",
     Atm. Environ, 10, 591  (1976).

17.  J. Forest and L. Newman, Further  Studies on the  Oxidation of Sulfur
     Dioxide in Coal-Fired Power Plant Plumes,  Atm. Environ. 11, 465  (1977).

18.  L. Newman, "Techniques for Determining the Chemical Composition of
     Aerosol Sulfur Compounds."  Preprint  Vol.  1, Papers, Presented at the
     International Sumposium on Sulfur in  the Atmosphere.  Sept. 7-14, 1977,
     Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia.

19.  C. Askue and C. Brosset, "Determination of Strong Acid in Precipitation,
     Lake-Water Particles Observed  at  the  Swedish West Coast. Atm. Environ.
     9, 631 (1975).

20.  C. Brosset, K. Andresson and M. Fern, "The Nature and Possible Origin
     of Acid Particles Observed at  the Swedish  West Coast.  Atm. Environ. 9_,
     631  (1975).

21.  R.E. Lee, Jr. and J. Wagman, "A Sampling Anomaly in the Determination
     of Atmospheric Sulfate Concentration."  J. Am. Ind. Hyg. 27, 266  (1966).

22.  F.B. Meserole, K. Schwitzgebel, B.F.  Jones, C.M. Thompson and
     F.G. Mesich, "Sulfur Dioxide Interferences in  the Measurement of
     Ambient Particulate Sulfate."   EPRI 262, Jan.  1976.

23.  R.W. Coutant, "Effect of Environmental Variables on Collection of
     Atmospheric Sulfate."  Environ. Sci.  Technol.  U_, 873  (1977).

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24.  W.R. Pierson, W.H.  Haimerle, W.w.  Bracnaczek,  "Sulfate Formed by
     Interaction of SO  with Filters and Aerosol Deposits."  Anal.
     Chem.  48, 1808 (1976).

25.  R.K. Stevens, T.G.  Dzubay,  G.  Russwurn and D.  Rickel, "Sampling
     and Analysis of Atmospheric Sulfates  and Related Species."
     Preprint Vol., Paper 4, Presented  at  the International Symposium
     on Sulfur in the Atmosphere, Sept. 7-14, 1977, Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia.

26.  D.C. Camp, R.K. Stevens, T.G.  Dzubay, B.W. Loo and Coworkers,
     Workshop on Intercomparison of Aerosol Sampling and Analysis
     Methods for Sulfur  adn Trace Metals.  Sponsored by E3RL, EPA,
     Research Triangle Park, N.C.,  Nov. 2-3, 1977.

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                      References - Section  IV
 1.  Beilke, S. and G. Gravenhorst.   Heterogeneous SO  Oxidation  in the
     Droplet Phase.  Atmospheric Environment,  1977.

 2.  Calvert, J.G., Fu Su, J.W.  Bottenheim,  and O.P. Strausz.  Mech-
     anism of the Homogeneous Oxidation of Sulfur Dioxide  in the
     Troposphere.  Atmospheric Environment,  1977.

 3.  Eggleton, A.E.J.  Homogeneous Oxidation of Sulfur Compounds  in
     the Atmosphere.  Atmospheric Environment, 19677.

 4.  Friedlander, S.K.  The Dynamics  of Sulfate Containing Aerosols.
     Atmospheric Environment, 1977.

 5.  Hegg, D.A. and P.V. Hobos.   Oxidation of  Sulfur Dioxide in Aqueous
     Systems with Particular Reference to the  Atmosphere.  Atmospheric
     Environment, 1977.

 6.  Judeikis, H.S., T.B. Stewart, A.G. Wren and J.E. Foster.  The
     role of Solid-Gas Interactions  in Air Pollution.  EPA Report No.
     600/3-77-132,  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
     Triangle Park, N.C. 1977.  69 pp.

 7.  Kocmond, W.C., D.B. Kittleson, J.Y.  Yang  and K.L. Demerjian.  Study
     of Aerosol Formation in Photochemical Air Pollution.  EPA Report
     No. 650/3-75-007, 1975.

 8.  Miksad, R.W.,  K.K. DeBower  and J.R.  Brock. A Chemically Reactive
     Power Plant Plume Model. To be  published in Atmospheric  Environment.

 9.  Miller, D.F.  Precursor Effects  on SO   Oxidation.  Atmospheric
     Environment, 1977.

10.  Novakov, T., S.G. Chang and A.B. Harker.  Sulfates as Pollution
     Particulates:   Catalytic Formation on Carbon  (Soot) Particles.
     Science 186, 259-261, 1974.

11.  Whitby, K.T.  The Physical  Characteristics of Sulfur  Aerosols.
     Atmospheric Environment, 1977.

12.  Whitby, K.T.  Electrical Measurements of  Aerosols.  Fine  Particles:
     Aerosol Generation, Measurement, Sampling, and Analysis  (B.Y.H. Liu,
     ed.), pp. 581-624.  Academic Press,  N.Y.  1S76.

13.  Wilson, W.E.,  A. Levy and D. Wimmer. A Study of Sulfur Dioxide in
     Photochemical Smog, II.  The Effect  of  SO on Formation of
     Oxidant.  J. APCA 22, 311-320, 1972.

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                              References - Section V

 1.  Draft report in preparation.   "Standard Support and Environmental
     Impact Statement - An Investigation of the Best Systems of Emission
     Reduction for Particulate Matter from Large Coal-Fired Steam
     Generators," OAQPS, EPA,  Research Triangle Park, N.C.  October 1977.

 2.  Littman, F. E., Griscom,  R. W.,  and Wang, H. "Regional Air Pollution
     Study - Sulfur Compounds  and  Particulate Size Distribution Inventory,"
     EPA-600/4-77-017, April 1977.

 3.  Gooch, J. B., and Marchant, C. H.,  Jr., "Particulate Collection
     Efficiency Measurements on an Electrostatic Precipitator Installed
     on a Coal-Fired Utility Boiler," EPA-600/2-77-011, January 1977.

 4.  Nichols, G., and McCain,  J.,  "Particulate Collection Efficiency
     Measurements on Three Electrostatic Precipitators," EPA-600/2-75-056,
     October 1975.

 5.  Abbott, J. H., and Drehmel, D. C.,  "Emission Control:  Control of
     Fine Particulate Emissions,"   Chemical Engineering Proceedings.
     47-51, December 1976.

 6.  Calvert, S., Jhaveri, N.  C.,  and Yung, S., "Fine Particle Scrubber
     Performance Tests,"  EPA-650/2-74-OS3, NTIS Report PB-240-749/AS,
     September 1974.

 7.  Harris, D. B., and Turber, J. H., "Particulate  Measurement Around
     an Anthracite Steam Generator Baghouse," IERL Report, November 1973.

 8.  McKenna, J. D.r "Applying Fabric Filtration to  Coal-Fired Industrial
     Boilers," EPA-650/2-74-058, NTIS Report No. PB-237-117/AS, July 1974.

 9.  Bennett, R. L., and Knapp, K. T., "Chemical Characterization of
     Particulate Emissions From Oil-Fired Power Plants," pp. 5U1-506,
     Proceedings of the Furth  National Conference on Energy and the
     Environment, October 1976, Cincinnati, Ohio, AIChE, Dayton, Ohio.

10.  Ragaini, R. C., and Ondov, J. M., "Trace Contaminants from Coal-
     Fired Power Plants," Proceedings of International Conference on
     Environmental Sensing and Assessment, Las Vegas, Nevada, 1976.

11.  Henry, W. M., Jakobsen, R. J., and  Hillenbrand, L. J., 3rd Monthly
     Technical Progress Report on  "Investigation and Feasibility Study
     of Methods for Identification and Measurement of Inorganic Compounds
     Emitted as Particulates from  Sources Using or Processing Fossil
     Fuels," EPA Contract No.  68-02-2296 with Battelle Memorial Institute,
     July 1976.

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 12.  Gladney,  E.  S.,  Small, J. A., Gordon, G. E., and Zoller, W. H.,
      "Coraposition and Size Distribution of In-Stack Particulate Material
      at a Coal-Fired  Power Plant," Atmos. Environ. 1£, 1071-1077, 1976.

 13.  Block, C.,  and Ondov, J. M., "Trace Contaminants from Coal-Fired
      Power Plants," Proceedings of International Conference on Environ-
      mental Sensing and Assessment, Las Vegas, Nevada, 1976.

 14.  Jones, P. W., Wilkinson, J. E., and Strup, P. E., 10th and 12th
      Monthly Progress Reports on "Measurement of POM and Other Hazardous
      Organic Materials in Stack Gases," EPA Contract No. 68-02-2457 with
      Battelle Memorial Institute, August and October 1977.

 15.  Internal Report, "Standard Support and Environmental Impact State-
      ment - An Investigation of the Best Systems of Emission Reduction
      for Nitrogen Oxides from Large Coal-Fired Steam Generators," OAQPS,
      EPA, Research Triangle Park, N.C., October 1976.

 16.  Cato, G.  A., Muzio, L. J., and Hall, R. E., "Influence of Combustion
      Modifications on Pollutant Emissions from Industrial Boilers,"
      pp. IV-163-218,  in Proceedings of the Stationary Source Combustion
      Sumposium,  Vol.  IV, Field Testing and Surveys  (Bowen, J. S., and
      Hall, R.  E., Eds.), EPA-60U/2-76-152C, June 1976.

 17.  Schmidt, E.  W.,  Gieseke, J. A., and Allen, J. M., "Size Distribution
      of Fine Particulate Emissions from a Coal-Fired Power Plant," Atmos.
      Environ.  10, 1065-1069, 1976.

17a.  Unpublished data, ESRL, EPA, Research Triangle Park, N.C., 10/24/77.

 18.  Barnes, H.  M., Fortune, C. R., Homolya, J. B., and Cheney, J. L.
      "An Examination  of Measurement Methods for the Characterization of
      Gaseous Sulfur Emissions from Combustion Sources," pp. 484-489,
      Proceedings of the 4th National Conference on Energy and the Environ-
      ment, AIChE, Dayton, Ohio, 1976.

 19.  Homolya,  J.  B.,  Barnes, H. M., and Fortune, C. R., "A Characterization
      of the Gaseous Sulfur Emissions from Coal- and Oil-Fired Boilers,"
      pp. 440-494, Proceedings of the Fourth National Conference on Energy
      and the Environment, October 1976, Cincinnati, Ohio, AIChE, Dayton,
      Ohio.

19a.  Draft report, "Field Testing:  Applications of Combustion Modifications
      to Control  Pollutant Emissions from Power Generation Combustion Systems,"
      IERL, EPA,  Research Triangle Park, N.C., October 1977.

 20.  Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, 2nd Ed., AP-42, U.S.
      Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C.,
      March 1975.

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21.  Internal Memo.   "Emissions of SO  and H SO  from Pulverized-Coal
     Combustion Incorporating a Wet-Limestone  Scrubber,"  October 13,
     1977, ESRL, EPA, Research Triangle Park,  N.C.   .

22.  Bechtel Corp.,  Monthly Progress Report for Period February 1,
     1977 - February 28, 1977, on EPA Contract 68-02-1814,  "EPA Alkali
     Scrubbing Test Facility, TVA Shawnee  Power Plant, Paducah, Kentucky,
     April 1977.

23.  Standards of Performance for New Sources, "U.S.  Environmental
     Protection Agency, Fed. Register 36_,  24876 (1971)

24.  Conner, W. D.,  "A Comparison Between  IN-Stack and Plume Opacity
     Measurements at Oil-Fired Power Plants,"  pp. 478-483,  Proceedings
     of the Fourth National Conference on  Energy and  tne Environment,
     October 1976, Cincinnati, Ohio, AIChE, Dayton, Ohio.

25.  Air Quality Criteria for Sulfur Oxides.   Publication No. AP-50, U.S.
     Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Public Health Service,
     Washington, D.C., 1969.

26.  Position Paper  on Regulation of Atmospheric Sulfates.  EPA-450/2-75-
     007  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park,
     N.C. 1975.

27.  Wilson, W.E., R.J. Charlson, R.B. Husar,  K.T. Whitby and D. Blumenthal.
     Sulfates in the Atmosphere.  A Progress Report on Project MISTT
     (Midwest Interstate Sulfur Transformation and Transport).  EPA
     Report No. 600/7-77-021, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Research Triangle Park, N.C., 1977.

28.  Husar, R.B., N.V. Gillani, J.D. Husar and D.E. Patterson.  A
     Study of Long Range Transport from Visibility Observations, Trajec-
     tory Analysis and Local Air Pollution Monitoring Data.  In:  Pro-
     ceedings of the Seventh International Technical  Meeting on Air
     Pollution Modeling and Its Application, September 1976, Airlie House,
     VA.  Report No. 51, NATO Committee on the Challenges to Modern
     Society.

29.  White, W.H., J.A. Anderson, D.L. Blumenthal, R.B. Husar, N.V.
     Gillani, J.D. Husar and W.E. Wilson,  Jr.   Formation and Transport
     of Secondary Air Pollutants:  Ozone and Aerosols in the St. Louis
     Urban Plume.  Science 194:187-189, 1976.

30.  Husar, R.B., D.E. Patterson, J.D. Husar,  N.V. Gillani  and W.E.
     Wilson, Jr.  Sulfur Budget of a Power Plant Plume.  Atmospheric
     Environment, 1978.

31.  Judeikis, H.S., T.B. Stewart, A.G. Wren and J.E. Foster.  The Role
     of Solid-Gas Interactions in Air Pollution.  EPA Report No. 600/3-77-
     132, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C.
     1977.  69 pp.

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32.  Newman, L., J. Forrest and 3. Manowitz.  The Application of An
     Isotopic Ratio Technique to  the Study of the Atmospheric Oxidation
     of Sulfur Dioxide in the Plume  From a Coal Fired Power Plant.
     Atmos. Environ.,  9:969, 1975.

33.  Durham, J.L., W.E.  Wilson, V.P.  Aneja, J.H. Overton Jr., D.L.
     Blumenthal, J.S.  Anderson, S. Frisella, W. Dannevik, L. Hull and
     R. Woodford.  Sulfate Aerosol Formation Rate in an Oil Fired
     Power Plant Plume.   Presented at the  83rd American Institute of
     Chemical Engineers  National  Meeting,  Houston, Texas, 20-24 March,
     1977.

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                        INFERENCES - SECTION VII

 1.  Atinospneric Environment Service/Environmental  Protection Service,
     Preliminary Report of the Intensive Sulfate  Study - August  1976
     Downsview, Ontario, Canada, March 1977, 88 pp.

 2.  Bauman, R.D., 1977:  Private Communication,  October 13,  1977.

 3.  Federal Energy News, 1977:  "FEAxs Coal Utilization Office  Issues
     Notices to Industrial Plant," May 9, E-77-159, and "FEA  Issues
     Prohibition and Constructive Orders," June 30, E-77-212.

 4.  Fisher, R.W. (1977) Summaries of the climatological structure of the
     near-surface atmosphere, Paper in the Proceedings of  the Joint Conference
     on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology,  Salt Lake  City, Utah,
     Novemoer 28 - Decemoer 2, 1977, 8 pp.

 5.  Gage, S. J., L.F. Smith, P.M. Cukor, and B.L.  Nieraann,  (1977) Long-range
     transport of SO /MSO  from the U.S. EPA/Teknekron Integrated Technology
     Assessment of Electric Utility Energy Systems, Paper  presented at  the
     International Symposium on Sulfur in the Atmosphere,  September 7-14,
     1977, Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia, 40 pp.

 6.  Gorr, W.L. and R.W. Bunlap (1977)  Characterization of steady wind
     incidents for air quality management, Atmos. Environ., 11,  59-64.

 7.  Hanna, S.R.  (1977):  Meeting Review — Third Symposium on Atmospheric
     Turbulence, Diffusion, and Air Quality, 19-22  October, 1976, Bulletin
     Amer.  Meteorological Soc., ^8, 3, 242-244.

 8.  Hidy, G.M., et al.  (1976) Design of the Sulfate Regional Experiment
     (SURE)  (ly76), Vol. 1, Supporting Data and Analysis,  and Vol. Ill,
     Appendices, EPRI EC-125, Environmental REsearch and Technology,
     Inc., Westlake Village, California.

 9.  Hoixt, L.R.  (1974) Planetary boundary layer  winds in  baroclinic
     conditions, J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1003-1020.

10.  Holzworth, G.C.  (1974) Summaries of the lower  few kilometers of
     rawinsonde and radiosonde observations in tne  United  States, Paper
     presented at the Climatology Conference and  Workshop  of  the
     American Meteorological Society, Asheville,  N.C., 8-11 October 1974.

11.  Holzworth, G.C.  (1977) Climatic data on estimated effective chemney
     heights in the United States, Paper in the Proceedings of the Joint
     Conference on Applications of Air Pollution  Meteorology,  Salt Lake
     City, Utah, November 28 - December 2, 1977,  8  pp.

12.  Irwin, John S., and Cope, Alen M., 1977: Dispersion  Estimate Sug-
     gestion No. 5.  Some of the Factors to be considered  in  establishing
     the maximum concentrations from elevated buoyant point sources.
     Environmental Applications Branch, Meteorology and Assessment
     Division, ESRL, U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency, Research
     Triangle Park, N.C.  27711.

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13.  Korshover, J. (1976)  Climatology of the stagnating anticyclones east of
     tne Rocky Mountains,  1936-1975, NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL AEL-
     55, U.S. Department of Commerce, Silver Spring, Mot.,  26 pp.

14.  LaFleur, R.J. and D.M. Whelpdale (1977)  Spatial distribution of sulfates
     over Eastern Canada during August 1976, Paper presented at the 7Uth
     Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association, Toronto,
     Ontario, Canada, 20-24 June 1977.

15.  Likens, G.E., "Chemistry of precipitation in the Central Finger Lakes
     Region," Technical Report 50 (Ithaca, N.Y.:  Cornell  University
     Water Resources and Marine Sciences Center, Octooer 1972.

16.  Likens, G.E., "Acid Precipitation," Chemical and Engineering News, 22
     November 1976, pp 29-44.

17.  McCormick, R.A.  and G.C. riolzworth, 1976:  Air Pollution Climatology,
     Chapter 12 in Air Pollution 3rd Edition, edited by A.C. Stern,
     Academic Press,  New YorK, 643-700.

18.  McMahon, J.A., P.J. Denison, and R. Fleming (1976)  A  long-distance air
     pollution transportation model incorporating washout  and dry
     deposition components, Atmospheric Environment, 10, 751-761.

19.  Niemann, B.L. (1977)  An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric
     Utility Energy Systems, Part 1-Long-Range Transport,  Draft First
     Year Report, EPA Contract No. 68-01-1921, Teknekron,  Inc., Berkeley,
     California  323  pp.

20   iSiisbet, I.  (1975) Air Quality and Stationary Source Emission Control,
     Chapter 7:  Sulfates ana acidity in Precipitation:  Their Relation-
     ship to Emissions and Regional Transport of Sulfur  Oxides, U.S.
     Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.  pp 276-312.

21.  North, D.W. and  M.W.  Merkhofer (1975) Air Quality and Stationary Source
     Emission Control, Chapter 13:  Analysis of Alternative emission
     control strategies, U.S. Government Printing Office,  Washington,
     D.C., pp 540-711.

22.  PEDCO  (1975-1976) Evaluation of the feasibility of  total conversion to
     coal firing, Reports prepared for the U.S. EPA Strategies and Air
     Standards Division, Pollutant Strategies Branch, Research Triangle
     Park, N.C.

23.  Smith, F.B. and  R.D.  Hunt (1977)  Meteorological aspects of pollution over
     long distances,  Paper presented at the International  Symposium on
     Sulfur in the Atmosphere, Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia, 7-14 September 1977.

-------
24.  Smith, L.F. (1977)   Electric Utility Energy Systems ITA,  Proceedings  of
     the 2nd National Conference on the Interaagency Energy/Environmental
     R&B Program, June 7-7, 1977, Washington,  D.C.,  sponsored  by the
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  (to be published).

25.  Smith, L.F. and B.L. Niemann (1977)  The Onio River  Basin  Energy Study:
     The future of air resources and other factors affecting energy
     development, Paper to be presented at the Third International
     Conference on Environmental Problems of the Extractive Industries,
     Dayton, Ohio, November 29 - December 1, 1977, 68 pp.

26.  Tong, E.Y., G. Battel, and R.B. Batchelder (1977) Case studies of
     atmospheric sulfate distribution over the eastern United  States,
     Paper presented at the Fifteenth Purdue Air Quality Conference,
     November 8-9, 1976, Indianapolis, In.

27.  Tong, E.Y. and S.A. De Pietro, lb»77:  Sampling  frequencies for determining
     long-term average concentrations of atmospheric particulate sulfate,
     J. Air Poll. Cont.  Assoc., 2T7, 1003-lUll.

28.  Turner, D. Bruce, and Burke, Adrian D., 1973:  Users Guide to  the
     Interactive Versions of Three Point Source Dispersion Programs:
     PTMAX, PIDIS, and PTMTP.  Unpublished manuscript.   Meteorology and
     Assessment Division, ESRL, U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency,
     Research Triangle Park, N.C.  27711.

29.  Turner, D. Bruce; Novae, Joan Hrenko; and Godfrey,  Susan  M., 1976:
     Types of days that are associated with maximum  24-hour calculated
     SO  communications from single power plants. Preprint volume  for
     Third symposium on Atmospheric Turbulence, Diffusion, and Air
     Quality.  October 26-29, 1976, Raleigh, N.C., Published by American
     Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts.

30.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Position  Paper on Regulation
     of Atmospheric Sulfates (1975) EPA-450/275-007, Research  Triangle
     Park, N.C., 108 pp.

31.  Wendell, L.L.  (1972) Mesoscale wind fields and  transport  estimates
     determined from a network of wind towers.  Monthly  weather Review,
     100, 565-578.

32.  Wendell, L.L., D.C. Powell, and R.L. Drake,  (1976)  A regional  model for
     computing deposition and ground level air concentrations  of SO  and
     sulfates from elevated and ground sources, Paper presented at  the
     American Meteorological Society Symposium on Atmospheric
     Turbulence, Diffusion, and Air Quality, Raleigh, N.C., 19-22
     October, pp 318-324

33.  Wilson, W.E., R.J. Charlson, R.B. Husar,  K.T. Whitby and  D. Blumenthal
     (1977) Sulfates in the Atmosphere;  A Progress  Report on  Project
     M1STT  (Midwest Interstate Sulfur Transformation and Transport)  EPA-
     6uO/7-77-U21, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  Research
     '.triangle Park, N.C., 29 pp.

-------
34.  Yap,  D. and Y.S.  Chung (1977)  Relationship of ozone to meteorological
     conditions in southern Ontario,  Paper  presented  at the 7Uth annual
     Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association, Toronto, Ontario,
     Canada, 20-24 June 1977.

-------
                      Reference - Section VIII
 1.  I. Nisbet, Chapter 7.  "Sulfates and Acidity in Precipitation:  Their
     Relationsnip to Emissions and Regional Transport of  Sulfur Oxides"
     in Air Quality and Stationary Source Emission Control, prepared by
     Commission on Natural Resources, NAS/NCE/NRC for Committee on Public
     Works, United States Senate, Serial No. 94-4, Maren  1975.

 2.  G. E. Likens, "Acid Precipitation,"  Chemical and Engineering News
     Special Report, November 22, 1976.

 3.  J. Trajonis, Chapter 6.  "The Relationship of Sulfur Oxide Emissions to
     Sulfur Dioxide and Sulfate Air Quality" in Air Quality and Stationary
     Source Emission Control, Prepared by Commission on Natural Resources,
     NAS/NCE/NRC for Committee on Public Works, United States Senate,
     Serial No. 94-4, March 1975.

 4.  E. N. Ziegler, "Precipitation Composition:  Northeastern United States,"
     Advances in Environmental Science and Engineering, Vol.  1, 1977,
     Gordon and Breach Science Publ.

 5.  J. N. Galloway, G. E. Likens, E. S. Edgerton, Acid Precipitation  in the
     Northeastern United States:  pH and Acidity.  Science 194, 722-4  (1976).

 6.  L. Barrie, S. Beilke, H. W. Georgii, "SO  Removal by Cloud and Fog Drops
     as Affected Ammonia and Heavy Metals" in Precipitation Scavenging (1973),
     Coord. R. G. Semonin and R. W. Beadle.  Proceedings  of Symposium,
     Champaign, 111., October 14-18, 1974.  Published by  Technical Information
     Center, ERDA.

 7.  D. A. Hegg and P. V. Hobbs, Oxidation of Sulfur Dioxide  in Aqueous
     Systems with Particular Reference to the Atmosphere," Preprint Vol. 1,
     Paper 14, International Symposium.

 8.  J. G. Calvert, F. Su, J. W. Bottenheim, 0. P. Strausz, "Mechanism of the
     Homogeneous Oxidation of Sulfur Dioxide in the Troposphere."  Preprint
     Vol. 1, Paper II, International Symposium on Sulfur  in the Atmosphere,
     September 7-14, 1977, Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia.

 9.  J. B. Homolya, H. ft. Barnes, C. R.  Furtune, "A Characterization of
     the Gaseous Sulfur Emissions from Coal and Oil-Fired Boilers," Presented
     at the Fourth National Conference on Energy and the  Environment,  Oct.
     4-7, Iy76, Cincinnati, Ohio.

10.  B. W. Gay and J. J. Bufalini, "Nitric Acid and the Nitrogen Balance
     of Irradiated Hydrocarbons in the Presence of Oxides of  Nitrogen,"
     Environ. Sci. Technol. 5_, 422 (1971).

11.  C. W. Spicer and F. F. Miller, "Nitrogen Balance in  Smog Chamber  Studies,"
     J. Air Poll. Control. Assoc. 26, 45-50 (1976).

-------
12.  U.S. EPA 1972 National Emissions Report,  EPA-450/2-74-012, June 1974.

13.  U.S. EPA Supplement No. 6 to Compilation  of Air  Pollution Emission
     Factors, Second Edition, April 1976,  OAWM OAQPS, Research Triangle Park,
     N.C.

14.  Steam Electric Plant Factors - 1976 National Coal Assoc., Washington, D.C.

15.  J. M. Hales, J. M. Throp, and M. A. Wolf, Theory and  Field Measurements
     of Sulfur Dioxide Washout from an Elevated  Plume.  Conf. on Air Pollut.
     Meteorol.  Preprint Collect.  Am. Meteorol. Soc. Boston  63-64  (1971).

16.  L. Granat and H. Rodhe, "A Study of Fall-out by  Precipitation Around
     an Oil-fired Power Plant." Atm. Environ,  1_, 781-92  (1973).

17.  U. Hogstrom, "Residence Time of Sulfurous Air Pollutants from a Local
     Source During Precipitation," Ambio j2,  37-41 (1973).

18.  T. Li and H. E. Landsberg, Rainwater  pH Close to a Major Power Plant.
     Atm. Environ. 9, 81-88 (1975).

19.  Annual Environmental Analysis Report  to ERDA, Mitre Report, MTR-7626,
     Volume 1, Sept. 1977.

20.  Teknekron, Inc.  "An Integrated Technology  Assessment of Electric
     Utility Energy Systems."  Vol. I, The Assessment and  Vol. II,
     Components of the Impact Assessment Model,  First Year Report,
     Prepared for OEMI, ORD, U.S. EPA, Contract  No. 68-01-1921, 1975.

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                  Appendix A
Tabulations of NEDS, TAMP, and IAM Emissions
 for States in the Eastern Half of the U.S.
                                                    5R Teknekron, Inc.

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The purpose of this appendix is to provide tabulations of the emissions from
the National Emissions Data System (NEDS) (EPA, 1974 and 1976), the Technology
Assessment Modeling Program (TAMP) (ERDA, 1977), and the Impact Assessment
Model (IAM) (Niemann, 1977), for each of the 35 states in the eastern half
of the U.S. that were used in this analysis of the National  Energy Plan (NEP).
EPA (1974 and 1976) has indicated that the emissions for some states have not
been validated or are incomplete.  The NEDS industrial combustion emissions
include both those from industrial fuel and industrial process in order to be
consistent with the TAMP emissions.  The TAMP emission projections under
the NEP are based on the assumed growth rates in peak and average energy
demand as follows:
     (1)   1975 - 1985  -  5.81% per year
   -  (2)   1985 - 2000. -  3.36% per year ..  .. . .         ,...;.

The IAM emissions projections under the Reference (REF) and High Coal Use
(HCU) scenarios with Clean Air Act Revision  (CAR) environmental controls
are based on the assumed growth rates in peak and average energy demand as
as follows:
     (1)   1975 - 1985  -  5.4% per year
     (2)   1985 - 2000  -  5.4% per year
Utilities in the states of Tennessee and Nebraska were omitted along with all
publically owned utilities in the other eastern states in the initial runs
of the IAM used here.                             .,
                                                                     Teknekron, Inc

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                                References


Annual Environmental Analysis Report to ERDA, Mitre Report, MTR-7626, Volume 1,
September, 1977, 91 pp.

Niemann, B.L., 1977:  An Integrated Technology Assessment of Electric Utility
Energy Systems, Volume III, Air Quality Impact Model and Results, Part 1 -
Long-Range Transport, Draft First Year Report, EPA Contract No. 68-01-1921,
Teknekron, Inc., Berkeley, California, 323 pp.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1974: 1972 National Emissions Report,
450-74-012, National Emissions Data System of the Aerometric and Emissions
Reporting System, Office of Air and Waste Management, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, National Air Data Branch, Monitoring and Data Analysis
Division, Research Triangle Park, N.C., 422 pp.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1976:  1973 National Emissions Report,
450/2-76-007, National Emissions Data System of the Aeroraetric and Emissions
Reporting System, Office of Air and Waste Management, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, National Air Data Branch, Monitoring and Data Analysis
Division, Research Triangle Park, N.C., 422 pp.
                                                                     Teknekron. Inc.

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                                           DRAFT
       Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                    in Alabama
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
- . 1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
5.55 x I08
5.57 x I08
4.91 x I08
6.14 x JO8
6.14 x I08
1.86 x I08
' I.68xl08
1.66 x 108
1.59 x I08
1.66 x I08
1.57 x I08
(kg/yr*)
TSP
2.71 x I08
3.87 x I07
3.39 x I07
5.41 x I08
5.41 x I08
4.16 x I07
8.59 x I06
1.01 x I07
1.99 x I07
1.01 x I07
1.99 x I07
I ton =907.18 kg
                                               I Teknekron, Inc.

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          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Arkansas
t


Pollutant
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
. 1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
so2
9.43 x
8.38 x
1.51 x
1.55 x
4.91 x
0
8.74 x
9.18 x
8.67 x
9.18 x
8.70 x

I06
I07
I08
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07

(kg/yr*)
TSP
4.29 x
6.87 x
1.30 x
1.31 x
2.86 x
0
. 2.l5x
3.62 x
7.96 x
3.62 x
8.01 x



I05
.0*
I07
.0*
,0*
I06
I06
10*
I06
I06
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   Teknekron, Inc.

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        Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                        in Connecticut
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
,1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REP-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
1.42 x I08
5.88 x I07
4.20 x I07
1.01 x I08
I.Of x I08
3.75 x I07
2.91 x I07
4.68 x I07
4.47 x I07
4.47 x I07
3.94 x I07
(kg/yr*)
TSP
. 9.52 x I06
4.33 x I06
3.25 x I06
8.70 x I06
8.70 x I06
3.54 x I06
2.74 x I06
4.41 x I06
4.22 x I06
5.56 x I06
6.36 x I06
ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                Teknekron, Inc.

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          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                          in Delaware
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
1.05 x I08
1.26 x I08
1.20 x I08
6.84 x I07
2.78 x I07
3.77 x I07
2.57 x I07
2.22 x I07
2.44 x I07
2.19 x I07
1.59 x I07
(kg/yr»)
TSP
1.17 x I07
8.78 x I06
8.58 x I06
1.20 x I06
1.28 x I06
7.94 x I06
2.53 x I06
2.21 x I06
2.50 x I06
2.16 x I06
1.83 x I06
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                 Teknekron, Inc

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Florida

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
I AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995



Pollutant
so2
5.66
5.03
4.29
7.09
8,36
3.49
3.37
4.30
4.64
3.99
3.36
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x JO8
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08

(kg/yr»)
TSP
2.71 x
2.08 x
2.07 x
4.48 x
5.12 x
5.77 x
1.87 x
3.11 x
4.19 x
3.33 x
5.93 x



I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron  Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities

Data Source
TAMP
NEDS
1AM


in Georgia

Scenario Year
NEP 1975
1985
2000
1972
1973
REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995



Pollutant
so2
2.51
3.97
3.76
3.37
3.37
6.33
7.73
7.53
6.74
7.52
6.27
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
.x I08
x I08
x I08

(kg/yr*)
TSP
8.74 x
5.26 x
4.64 x
5.42 x
5.33 x
9.78 x
4.64 x
4.90 x
5.19 x
4.90 x
4.98 x



I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I07
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                 j Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Illinois

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995



Pollutant
so2
1.26
1.08
8.58
1.40
1.81
9.24
1.02
1.00
9.86
1.00
9.96
x I09
x I09
x I08
x 10*
x I09
x I08
x I09
x I09
x I08
x I09
x I08

(kg/yr*)
TSP
2.12 x
6.10 x
4.86 x
2.26 x
2.10 x
2.71 x
2.18 x
2.66 x
4.75 x
2.66 x
5.07 x



I08
I07
I07
I08
.O8
I08
I07
«07
107
I07
.O7
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

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          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Indiana

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REP-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995



Pollutant
so2
1.12
9.98
8.05
1.32
1.45
2.23
2.90
2.98
3.79
2.97
3.98
x I09
x I08
x I08
x I09
x 109
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08


-------
        Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Iowa

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995

Pollutant
so2
2.01 x I08
2.75 x I08
2.26 x I08
1.93 x I08
2.16 x I08
2.03 x I08
3.04 * I08
2.79 x I08
1.99 x I08
2.79 x I08
1.99 x I08

(kg/yr*)
TSP
6.90 x
2.87 x
2.29 x
4.19 x
1.13 x
4.07 x
4.75 x
4.35 x
3.10 x
4.35 x
3.10 x



I07
I07
I07
m7
108
m7
I07
107
I07
107
«07
ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                Teknekron, Inc.

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                                                   :AFT
       Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Kansas

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
I960
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995

Pollutant
so2
2.17 x I07
1.53 x I08
1.50 x I08
2.24 x I07
2.23 x I07
5.28 x I07
1.10 x I08
1.01 x I08
9.30 x I07
1.01 x I08
9.27 x I07

(kg/yr*)
TSP
6.89 x
1.21 x
1.12 x
6.29 x
5.95 x
1.86 x
2.74 x
2.54 x
5.33 x
. 2.55 x
5.33 x



I06
I07
107
10*
.O6
«07
I06
I0<
I06
I06
.O6
ton = 907.18 kg
                                                      Teknekron, Inc.

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          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                           in Kentucky
Data Source • Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973 .
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
9.53 x I08
1.01 x I09
9.04 x I08
1.09 x I09
1.34 x I09
2.26 x 108
2.68 x I08
2.86 x I08
3.08 x I08
2.86 x I08
3.09 x I08
(kg/yr*)
TSP
1.16 x I08
4.94 x I07
4.67 x I07
1.48 x I08
1.53 x I08
5.14 x I07
2.18 x I07
2.51 x I07
3.32 x I07
2.51 x I07
3.32 x I07
I ton .= 907 J8 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

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          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Louisiana

Data Source Scenario Year
i
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995

Pollutant
so2
2.02 x I06
1.22 x I08
2.30 x I08
9.16 x 10*
1.44 x I08
9.10 x I07
1.84 x I08
1.43 x I08
1.29 x I08
1.42 x I08
1.22 x I08

(kg/yr*)
TSP
4.13 x
1.05 x
2.00 x
3.17 x
1.44 x
1.42 x
3.06 x
5.26 x
1.49 x
5.25 x
1.99 x



105
I07
I07
.0*
.O7
.0*
.O6
.O6
107
10*
I07
I ton =907.18 kg
                                                               >j< Teknekron, Inc.

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                                            DRAFT
       Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Maine

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
\
I AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995

Pollutant
so2
3.48 x !07
2.08 x I07
1.44 x I07
3.40 x I07
3.40 x I07
4.29 x \Q6
5.14 x I06
1.43 x I04
9.67 x I06
1.43 x I04
5.43 x I06

(kg/yr*)
TSP
1.04 x
5.95 x
4.37 x
2.68 x
2.68 x
1.09 x
3.18 x
8.96 x
6.04 x
8.96 x
1.16 x



I05
I04
10*
I05
I05
I05
I05
I02
I05
I02
I06
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                               Teknekron, Inc.

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          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Maryland

s_
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
.1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995



Pollutant
so2
1.87
1.89
1.61
2.65
1.85
2.01
1.70
2.04
2.48
1.75
1.64
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x 108
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08

(kg/yr*)
TSP
2.13 x
9.16 x
8.59 x
5.91 x
2.96 x
3.33 x
9.98 x
1.38 x
2.07 x
1.78 x
2.67 x



I07
I06
I06
107
107
I07
I06
.o7
107
107
107
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  iTeknekron, Inc.

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          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                         in Massachusetts
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
2.13 x I08
1.95 x I08
1.36 x I08
2.89 x I08
2.02 x I08
1.08 x I08
1.45 x I08
1.07 x I08
1.34 x I08
1.12 x I08
. 1.20 x I08
(kg/yr»)
TSP
1.10 x I07
1.20 x I07
8.11 x I06
1.73 x I07
1.98 x I07
5.04 x I06
7.06 x I06
5.21 x 10*
7.23 x !06
6.29 x I06
1.69 x 107
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                 >J( Teknekron, Inc.

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          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Michigan

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995



Pollutant
so2
8.36
7.61
6.28
9.34
9.16
2.84
3.27
3.31
2.68
3.29
3.05
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08

(kg/yr*)
TSP
1.76 x
7.35 x
5.91 x
1.13 x
1.23 x
2.25 x
1.27 x
1.70 x
1.59 x
1.75 x
2.35 x



I08
«07
I07
I08
I08
m8
I07
.o7
I07
•o7
m7
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

-------
               Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                               in Minnesota
                                                   Pollutant (kg/yr»)
Data Source
Scenario
Year
so
      I ton = 907.18 kg
TSP
TAMP
NEDS
1AM


NEP 1975
1985
2000
1972
1973
REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
1.72 x I08
2.28 x I08
1.96 x I08
1.87 x I08
1.96 x I08
4.20 x I07
7.43 x I07
5.55 x I07
5.58 x I07
5.55 x I07
5.58 x I07
6.98 x I07
3.42 x I07
2.78 x I07
3.92 x I07
2.12 x I07
3.30 x I07
2.68 x I06
4.44 x I06
6.53 x I06
4.44 x I06
6.53 x I06
                                                                   5R Teknekron, Inc.

-------
                                            DRAFT
      Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                   in Mississippi
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
2.54 x I07
9.71 x I07
1.16 x I08
4.36 x I06
4.36 x I06
2.18 x I08
2.66 x I08
2.15 x I08
1.87 x I08
2.15 x I08
1.87 x 108
(kg/yr*)
TSP
3.03 x I06
7.76 x I06
8.73 x I06
1.33 x I06
1.08 x I06
2.02 x I07
1.16 x I07
1.18 x I07
1.64 x I07
1.18 x 107
1.64 x I07
ton = 907.18 kg
                                                 Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Missouri
•
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995



Pollutant
so2
7.38
8.25
6.51
8.27
7.88
3.11
4.16
3.93
3.95
3.93
3.94
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08

(kg/yr»)
TSP
3.96 x
2.30 x
1.90 x
2.88 x
2.88 x
1.1-8 x
8.03 x
1.05 x
2.35 x
1.05 x
2.35 x



I07
I07
.o7
I07
I07
I08
I06
I07
I07
I07
I07
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                 I Teknekron, Inc.

-------
               Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                                in Nebraska
                                                   Pollutant (kg/yr*)
Data Source
             Scenario
Year
SO.
TSP
TAMP


NEDS

1AM**





NEP 1975 3.43 x I07
1985 9.52 x I07
2000 8.87 x I07
1972 3.64 x I07
1973 2.74 x I07
REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
8.75 x I06
7.40 x I06
6.66 x 10*
1.32 x I07
5.77 x 10*
_
—
_
—
_
—
#*
I ton = 907.18  kg

Nebraska was not  included in Teknekron's first-year JTA data base.  Thus,
no 1AM emissions are available for comparison.
                                                                       Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in New Hampshire

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995

Pollutant
so2
6.17 x I07
1.02 x I08
7.46 x I07
5.50 x I07
5.51 x I07
5.08 x I07
4.37 x I06
2.13 x I07
2.17 x I07
2.13 x I07
2.15 x I07

(kg/yr*)
TSP
2.25 x
4.82 x
3.23 x
8.55 x
8.55 x
8.45 x
3.51 x
1.50 x
1.43 x
1.50 x
1.42 x



.O6
I06
.0*
I05
I05
.0*
I05
106
10*
I06
I06
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in New Jersey

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995



Pollutant
so2
2.49
5.22
4.54
2.51
2.47
1.53
5.60
5.34
4.83
5,40
4.89
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I07
x I07
x I07
x I07
x I07
x I07

(kg/yr»)
TSP
4.05 x
3.52 x
2.96 x
1.47 x
1.51 x
5.63 x
7.15 x
6.74 x
5.94 x
7.02 x
6.22 x



I07
.O7
.O7
m7
I07
I07
»o6
m6
m6
m6
I06
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                          in New York
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
6.02 x I08
4.84 x I08
3.63 x I08
0
4.06 x I08
4.35 x I08
4.85 x I08
4.11 x I08
3.45 x I08
3.92 x I08
3.10 x I08
(kg/yr»)
TSP
6.29 x I07
1.71 x I07
1.31 x I07
0
8.73 x I07
5.39 x I07
2.42 x I07
2.41 x I07
2.51 x I07
2.51 x I07
2.62 x I07
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                 Teknekron, Inc.

-------
        Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in North Carolina





Pollutant
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995




(kg/yr*)
so2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
2
1
2
2
.86
.81
.99
.13
.65
.53
.23
.74
.93
.59
.15
x
x
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
I08
I08
I08
I08
I08
I08
I08
.O8
I08
.O8
I08
1
3
2
I
I
8
2
2
1
2
2
TSP
.85 x
.32 x
.81 x
.32 x
.09 x
.92 x
.66 x
.49 x
.95 x
.53 x
.47 x

10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10

8
7
7
8
8
7
7
7
7
I07
I07
ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Ohio

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995



Pollutant
so2
1.82
1.65
1.31
1.83
1.90
1.93
1.54
1.46
1.30
1.47
1.30
x I09
x I09
x I09
x I09
x I09
x I09
x I09
x I09
x I09
x I09
x I09

(kg/yr*)
TSP
3.59 x
8.99 x
7.11 x
3.27 x
3.87 x
3.70 x
4.51 x
4.83 x
4.91 x
5.06 x
5.80 x



I08
I07
I07
I08
I08
I08
I07
I07
«07
I07
I07
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities

Data Source • Scenario
TAMP NEP
NEDS
1AM REF-BAU
REF-CAR
HCU-CAR
in Oklahoma

Year
1975
1985
2000
1972
1973
1975
1980
1985
1995
1985
1995

Pollutant
so2 •
2.62 x I05
1.48 x I08
2.79 x I08
9.16 x I04
8.80 x I04
0
2.62 x I05
6.97 x I07
1.19 x I08
6.97 x I07
1.38 x I08

(kg/yr*)
TSP
2.60 x
1.26 x
2.43 x
1.68 x
1.05 x
0
5.14 x
9.69 x
1.77 x
9.69 x
2.04 x

-

I05
I07,
I07
I0fi
«f
I03
10*
,07
I06
I07
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   Teknekron, Jnc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in Pennsylvania
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
1.38 x I09
1.37 x I09
1.12 x I09
1.88 x I09
2.05 x I09
8.05 x I08
7.01 x I08
6.23 x I08
6.08 x I08
6.31 x I08
6.63 x I08
(kg/yr*)
TSP
3,05 x
1.36 x
1.10 x
2.27 x
2.54 x
1.51 x
4.78 x
4.45 x
6.19 x
4.66 x
7.55 x


«08
I08
»08
I08
«08
I08
I07
I07
I07
I07
«07
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                         in Rhode Island
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
1.51 x I07
5.83 x I06
4.06 x I06
2.14 x I07
1.42 x I07
3.66 x I06
3.67 x I06
1.04 x I07
1.73 x I07
5.38 x I06
l.ll x I07
(kg/yr»)
TSP
1.79 x I05
1.03 x I05
7.36 x I04
4.24 x I05
4.66 x I05
1.71 x I05
1.72 x I05
6.47 x I05
1.08 x I06
1.28 x I06
2.02 x I06
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

-------
             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                              in Minnesota
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            7.32 x  10
            I.06 x  10-
            1.49 x  I0!
              2.42  x  10"
              3.90  x  I0~
              5.51  x  I03
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
             1.17 x  10"
             6.70 x  10*
               1.64 x  10-
               1.25 x  I0!
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                    Teknekron, Inc.

-------
             Comporison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                              in Mississippi
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            7.48 x  10
            3.83 x  10
            7.31 x  10
              2.92  x IOJ
              5.36  x I03
              4.39  x I03
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            4.10 x  10*
            4.16 x  I04
               1.60 x 10-
               1.60 x I0f
     i  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                    I Teknekron, Inc.

-------
             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                               in Missouri
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO-
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
             1.00 x  10'
             1.53 x  I0!
             2.66 x  10"
              3.75 x  10
              2.18 x  10*
              2.22 x  10*
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            2.73 x  10-
            2.65 x  I0f
               1.04 x  10^
               2.32 x  I05
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                    Teknekron, Inc.

-------
             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                               in Nebraska
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
               SO.
                     TSP
   TAMP
  NEP
   NEDS
1975
1985
2000

1972
1973
7.73 x IOJ
1.48 x I04
3.87 x I04

9.96 x I03
1.25 x I04
                              3.02 x 10;
                              2.12 x I0:
                              1.96 x 10"
                                            8.08 x  10
                                            2.80 x  10"
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   i Teknekron, Inc.

-------
            Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                            in New Hampshire
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
              1975
              1985
              2000
            8.90 x IOJ
            9.77 x I03
            9.03 x I03
               1.75 x  IOJ
               1.06 x  I03
              8.40 x  I02
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            1.13 x  I0f
            1.13 x  10*
              3.89 x  10
              2.52 x  I0
       ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   Teknekron, Inc.

-------
             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                              in New Jersey
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/xr*)
   SO.
   TSP
   TAMP
  NEP
1975
1985
2000
7.66,x 10
4.96 x 10*
7.98 x 10*
1.13 x 10^
1.79 x 10*
1.14 x 10*
   NEDS
               J972
               1973
             1.16 x  10-
             9.93 x  10*
                  3.75 x 10
                  3.80 x 10*
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   I Teknekron, Inc.

-------
        Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion

Data Source
TAMP
NEDS
in New York

Scenario Year
NEP 1975
1985
2000
1972
1973

Pollutant
so2
2.13 x I05
4.28 x I05
4.94 x I05
0
2.87 x I05

(tons/yr*)
TSP
7.52 x 1
6.64 x 1
6.14 x 1
0
2.32 x 1



Q4
ft
ft
O4
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                Teknekron, Inc.

-------
            Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                            in North Carolina
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO,
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            9.86 x  10"
            2.18 x  I0f
            2.67 x  I0f
              3.09  x 10
              2.78  x IO
              2.36  x 10
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
             1.29 x  10°
             I.09 x  I05
              3.07  x 10"
              2.71  x I0f
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                     Teknekron, Inc.

-------
            Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                                 in Ohio
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                Pollutant  (tons/yr*)
   SO.
   TSP
   TAMP
  NEP
1975
1985
2000
4.81 x I03
6.28 x I05
8.54 x I05
2.29 x 10-
6.12 x 10*
6.24 x 10*
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            8.36 x  10°
            8.58 x  I05
                  1.08 x I0e
                  1.08 x 10*
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

-------
            Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                              in Oklahoma
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                Pollutant  (tons/yr*)
   SO.
   TSP
   TAMP
  NEP
1975
1985
2000
7.25 x 10*
8.46 x 10*
I.13 x I0!
3.28 x 10
1.46 x
9.98 x I0
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            1.29 x  10-
            9.03 x  10*
                  7.55 x 10
                  I.01  x I0
     I  ton =907.18 kg
                                                                58 Teknekron, Inc.

-------
             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                             in Pennsylvania
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
   SO.
   TSP
   TAMP
  NEP
1975
1985
2000
4.27 x 10-
7.07 x I0!
9.65 x I0!
1.71 x 10-
7.69 x 10*
7.85 x 10*
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            5.55 x  10°
            5.33 x  I05
                  I.II  x IOC
                  4.66  x tO"
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comporison of Emissions from Electric Utilities

Data Source
TAMP
NEDS
1AM


in Vermont

Scenario Year
NEP 1975
1985
2000
1972
1973
REF-BAU 1975
I960
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995

Pollutant
so2
1.92 x I06
4.03 x I06
2.88 x 10*
6.33 x I05
6.33 x I05
3.76 x I04
0
0
0
0
0

(kg/yr»)
TSP
1.51 x I06
3.61 x I05
2.47 x I05
1 .04 x I06
1.04 x I06
1.76 x I03
0
0
0
0
0
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  , Teknekron, Inc.

-------
         Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                           in Virginia
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
Pollutant
so2
3.08 x I08
2.32 x I08
1.71 x I08
2.64 x I08
2.31 x I08
2.45 x I08
2.37 x I08
1.90 x I08
1.34 x I08
1.16 x I08
I. 10 x I08
(kg/yr»)
TSP
6.13 x I07
1.05 x 107
7.98 x I06
8.74 x I07
8.36 x I07
2.89 x I07
8.16 x I06
1.09 x I07
1.31 x I07
1.28 x I07
1.62 x I07
ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   Teknekron, Inc.

-------
          Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
in West Virginia

Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
1AM REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995


Si
5.41
5.58
4.87
6.50
7.87
3.72
4.32
3.86
3.81
3.71
4.28

Pollutant
O
x I08
x I08
x 10 >
x I08
x I08
x I08
x 108
x I08
x I08
x I08
x I08

(kg/yr»)
TSP
8.75 x
2.39 x
2.31 x
2.00 x
2.35 x
1.13 x
1.15 x
1.03 x
2.74 x
1.18 x
4.23 x



I07
I07
I07
.O8
«08
I08
107
I07
.O7
I07
I07
I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                  Teknekron, Inc.

-------
               Comparison of Emissions from Electric Utilities
                                in Wisconsin
                                                    Pollutant  (kg/yr*)
Data Source
Scenario
Year
SO.
      I ton = 907.18 kg
TSP
TAMP
NEDS
1AM


NEP 1975
1985
2000
1972
1973
REF-BAU 1975
1980
REF-CAR 1985
1995
HCU-CAR 1985
1995
4.90 x I08
5.95 x I08
4.88 x I08
4.63 x I08
4.71 x I08
4.42 x I08
5.12 x I08
4.44 x I08
3.48 x I08
4.44 x I08
2.81 x I08
1. 11 x I08
4.05 x 107
3.30 x I07
1.51 x 108
1.43 x I08
7.97 x I07
2.53 x I07
2.41 x I07
2.02 x I07
2.41 x I07
1.78 x I07
                                                                        Teknekron, Inc.

-------
                                                       DRAFT
           Comporison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                            in Alabama
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                           Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
  TAMP
             1975
             1985
             2000
           2.40 x  10°
           3.06 x  I05
           3.56 x  I05
             8.09 x  10'
             2.25 x  10*
             2.02 x  10*
   NEDS
             1972
             1973
           2.48 x  10-
           2.53 x  I05
             6.31 x  10-
             4.98 x  I0f
     I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                         5R Teknekron, Inc.

-------
                                                           DRAFT
           Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                            in Arkansas
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                            Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
  TAMP
             1975
             1985
             2000
           7.30 x 10"
           5.17 x 10*
           5.39 x 10*
             2.98 x  10-
             1.39 x  10*
             9.37 x  I03
   NEDS
             1972
             1973
           1.77 x 10"
           5.33 x 10*
             1.28 x  10-
             1.06 x  10-
     I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                             Teknekron, Inc.

-------
             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                              in Connecticut
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
   SO.
   TSP
   TAMP
  NEP
1975
1985
2000
2.64 x 10
1.82 x 10*
1.70 x 10*
4.38 x 10-
3.96 x 103
2.72 x I03
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            9.20 x
            9.20 x  I0
                  9.71  x 10;
                  9.70 x IO*
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                    Teknekron, Inc.

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            Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                              in Delaware
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                Pollutant  (tons/yr*)
SO.
                                 TSP
   TAMP
  NEP
   NEDS
1975
1985
2000

1972
1973
             1.39 x  10"
            2.83 x  10*
            4.89 x  10*
                                            1.36 x I0
               1.72 x  10-
               2.53 x  I03
               2.82 x  I0:
                           1.45 x  I05        2.20 x
                                            2.09 x 10
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   , Teknekron, Inc.

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             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                                in Florida
                                                  Pollutant (tons/yr*)
Data Source
Scenario
Year
SO.
TSP

TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
/•
4.18 x I04
1.16 x I05
1.67 x I05
q
6.52 x IOJ
1.43 x I04
1.27 x I04
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
             1.64 x 10-
            2.13 x I0f
               1.06 x 10'
               l.ll x I0f
     I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                      Teknekron, Inc.

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             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                               in Georgia
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            5.66 x
            1.58 x  IC
            2.02 x  I0
               1.24 x  10
               1.97 x  10^
               1.69 x  10^
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
             1.04 x  I03
             1.03 x  I05
              3.22  x  ID'
              2.30  x  I0!
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                    i Teknekron, Inc

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             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                                in Illinois
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            2.40 x  IOJ
            3.57 x  I05
            5.41 x  I05
               7.98 x
               2.96 x
               3.32 x
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            3.12 x  10-
            4.07 x  I0£
               7.08 x 10'
               4.98 x I0f
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   Teknekron, Inc.

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                                                       DRAFT
           Comparison of Emissions from industrial Combustion
                            in Indiana
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                            Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
  TAMP
             1975
             1985
             2000
           3.84 x  I05
           4.68 x  I05
           5.70 x  I05
             1.24 x  10-
             8.35 x  I0(
             8.66 x  !(/
   NEDS
             1972
             1973
           6.04 x  10-
           4.62 x  I0f
             4.12 x  10-
             2.42 x  I05
     I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                         )R Teknekron, Inc.

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            Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                                 in iowa
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            2.33 x  10'
            4.37 x  10*
             1.05 x  10-
              8.87 x  10-
               1.02 x  \
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                                                           DRAFT
           Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                            in Kansas
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                           Pollutant (tons/yr*)
   SO.
   TSP
  TAMP
  NEP
1975
1985
2000
1.81 x  10*
3.30 x  I04
6.94 x  I04
5.81  x  IOJ
4.72  x  I03
4.80  x  I03
   NEDS
             1972
             1973
           3.67 x  10"
           3.67 x  10*
                3.35 x 10-
                1.57 x 10-
     I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                             Teknekron, Inc.

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                                                          DRAFT
           Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                           in Kentucky
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                            Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO,
                   TSP
  TAMP
   NEDS
             1975
             1985
             2000

             1972
             1973
           8.99 x
1.35 x  10-
1.87 x  I0f

5.35 x  10*
8.35 x  10*
             3.72 x  10*
             2.06 x  I04
             1.90 x  I04
                           3.71 x I05
                           3.07 x I05
     I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                            Teknekron, Inc.

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             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                               in Louisiana
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
   SO.
   TSP
   TAMP
  NEP
   NEDS
1975
1985
2000

1972
1973
8.96 x IO-3
1.59 x I05
1.75 x I05
                           1.46 x I05
                           3.51  x I05
4.24 x 10"
2.68 x \0L
1.74 x 10*
                  3.79 x 10-
                  3.62 x 10-
     I  ton =907.18 kg
                                                                    Teknekron, Inc.

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             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                                in Maine
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            2.26 x  10*
            7.11 x  10;
            6.23 x  I0:
              2.65 x  IOJ
              7.19 x  I02
              5.06 x  I02
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            8.53 x  10"
            8.66 x  10*
               3.61  x 10"
               3.86  x 10*
     I  ton =907.18 kg
                                                                    Teknekron, Inc.

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             Comparison of Emissions from industrial Combustion
                               in MarylanH
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            9.94 x  IOH
            9.68 x  I04
             1.55 x  I05
              3.83 x  10"
               1.69 x  10*
               1.74 x  10*
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
             I.II x  10*
             8.54 x  10*
              4.35  x  10-
              4.60  x  10*
     I  ton =907.18 kg
                                                                    Teknekron, Inc.

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             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                            in Massachusetts
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
   SO.
TSP
   TAMP
   NEDS
1975
1985
2000

1972
1973
2.84 x 10"
3.39 x 10*
2.87 x 10*

7.60 x 10*
7.10 x 10*
                                            4.53 x  10;
                                            4.19 x  10*
                                            2.84 x  10-
                                            2.13 x  I04
                                            2.28 x  I04
     I  ton-907.18 kg
                                                                   Teknekron, Inc.

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             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                               in Michigan
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
   NEDS
               1975
               1985
               2000

               1972
               1973
            3.07 x  10°
            4.64 x  I05
            £.61 x  I05
                                            3.13 x  10-
               1.15 x  10-
               6.97 x,IO*
               7.24 x  10*
            4.15 x  I05        3.18 x I05
                              4.07 x 10-
          s 907.18 kg
                                                                    Teknekron, Inc.

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                                                          DRAFT
           Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                           in Minnesota
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                           Pollutant (tons/yr*)
   SO.
   TSP
  TAMP
  NEP
   NEDS
1975
1985
2000

1972
1973
7.32 x  IOH
1.06 x  I05
1.49 x  I05

1.17 x  I05
6.70 x  I04
2.42 x  IOH
3.90 x  I03
5.51 x  I03
                                        1.64 x 10-
                                        1.25 x I0f
     I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                            Teknekron, Inc.

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                                                             DRAFT
           Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                           in Mississippi
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                            Pollutant (tons/yr*)
   SO.
   TSP
  TAMP
  NEP
1975
1985
2000
7.48 x  10*
3.83 x  10*
7.31 x  10*
2.92 x  IOJ
5.36 x  I03
4.39 x  I03
   NEDS
             1972
             1973
           4.10 x
           4.16 x
                1.60 x  10-
                1.60 x  10-
     I ton = 907.18 kg
                                                             Teknekron, Inc.

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        Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                           in Missouri
Data Source Scenario Year
TAMP NEP 1975
1985
2000
NEDS - 1972
1973
Pollutant
so2
1.00 x I05
1 .53 x I05
2.66 x I05
2.73 x I05
2.65 x I05
(tons/yr*)
TSP
3.75 x I04
2.18 x I04
2.22 x I04
1.04 x I05
' 2.32 x I05
I ton r 907.18 kg
                                                                 Teknekron, Inc.

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             Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                               in Nebraska
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
   SO.
   TSP
   TAMP
  NEP
1975
1985
2000
7.73 x 10-
I.48 x 10*
3.87 x 10*
3.02 x I03
2.12 x I03
1.96 x I03
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            9.96 x  10"
            1.25 x  10*
                  8.08 x 10"
                  2.80 x I0!
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                    Teknekron, Inc.

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            Comparison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                            in New Hampshire
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            8.90 x 10°
            9.77 x I03
            9.03 x I03
               1.75 x  IOJ
               1.06 x  I03
              8.40 x  I02
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
            1.13 x
            1.13 x
              3.89 x  I0
              2.52 x  I0
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                5R Teknekron, Inc.

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             Comporison of Emissions from Industrial Combustion
                              in New Jersey
Data Source
Scenario
Year
                                                 Pollutant (tons/yr*)
SO.
TSP
   TAMP
               1975
               1985
               2000
            7,66x  10
            4.96 x  10
            7.98 x  10
               1.13 x  10^
               1.79 x  10*
               1.14 x  10*
   NEDS
               1972
               1973
             1.16 x  10-
             9.93 x  10*
              3.75 x  10
              3.80 x  10*
     I  ton = 907.18 kg
                                                                   i Teknekron, Inc.

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