UNITED STATES - CANADA
   MEMORANDUM OF INTENT
             ON
TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION
 ENGINEERING, COSTS AND EMISSIONS
        INTERIM REPORT
         FEBRUARY 1981

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          This is  an  Interim Report  prepared by  a  U.S./Canada  Work  Group  in
accordance  with   the   Memorandum  of  Intent   on   Transboundary  Air  Pollution
concluded between Canada and the United States on  August 5, 1980.

          This is  one  of  a  set of  four reports  which  represent  an  initial
effort to  draw together currently  available  information  on  transboundary  air
pollution,  with   particular  emphasis  on  acid deposition,   and  to  develop  a
consensus on the nature of the  problem and the measures available to deal  with
it.  While  these  reports  contain some  information and  analyses that should  be
considered  preliminary  in  nature,  they accurately reflect the  current  state  of
knowledge on the issues considered.  Any  portion  of  these  reports  is  subject  to
modification  and  refinement  as peer  review,  further  advances  in  scientific
understanding, or the results of ongoing  assessment  studies become  available.

          More complete reports  on  acid deposition are  expected in  mid  1981 and
early 1982.  Other transboundary air pollution issues will also  be  included  in
these reports.

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                                                            January 15, 1981
David G. Hawkins                                  Raymond M. Robinson
Assistant Administrator                           Assistant Deputy Minister
 for Air, Noise & Radiation                       Environmental  Protection
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency               Service
Washington, D.C.  20460                           Environment Canada
                                                  K1A 1C8
Dear Messrs. Hawkins and Robinson:

     We are pleased to submit the interim report from Work Group 38 for your
submittal to the Coordinating Committee.  I understand that this report will
be reviewed by the Coordinating Committee at its meeting on January 29, 1981.

     The interim report is an initial effort by Work Group 3B to fulfill its
terms of reference.  The more extensive report to follow in May 1981 is
intended to provide information in support of the negotiations as called for
in the Memorandum of Intent.

     With the completion of this report, Work Group 38 is in a good position
to begin activities in Phase II.

                             Sincerely yours,
Kurt W. Riegel                                    Martin E. Rivers
Associate Deputy Assistant                        Director General
 Administrator                                    Air Pollution Control
Office of Environmental Engineering                Directorate
 and Technology CRD-681)                          Environmental Protection
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency               Service
                                                  Environment Canada

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        WORK GROUP 3B
ENGINEERING, COSTS AND EMISSIONS
        INTERIM REPORT
        JANUARY 15, 1981

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PREFACE

           The Emissions, Costs, and Engineering Assessment Subgroup (Work Group 3B)
was established under the MEMORANDUM OF INTENT in order to provide support to the
development of the control element  of  the  bilateral  agreement on  transboundary  air
pollution. Work Group 3B is also charged with  preparing proposed work under the  Applied
Research and Development element of the agreement.
           The purpose of  this Phase I report is  to  respond to the Terms of Reference
identified in the  MEMORANDUM OF  INTENT and to the  tasks set forth  in the group's
approved work plan.  During Phase I, Work Group 3B has devoted its efforts to:
a.   Preparing a work plan for Phase I and Phase II
b.   Identifying control technologies and associated costs for source categories of major
     concern
c.   Reviewing historical emission trends
d.   Determining current emission rates from  the source regions
e.   Projecting future emission rates under varying control and economic conditions
f.   Preparing the Phase I report
           During Phase II, the group will:
a.   Prepare a work plan for Phase III   .
b.   Conduct a  series  of  iterative analyses  in  order  to  evaluate  different pollution
     control scenarios
c.   Prepare the Phase II report
           Due to time  and resource  constraints, it has not been possible to treat  all
emissions and source categories  equally.   Although some  source categories  have been
covered  only lightly, we have attempted to  treat  intensively  those  source categories
thought to be major contributors to transboundary  air pollution problems.  Some work
remains in order to reconcile our results with  those  of the other work groups, especially
Work  Group 2.   During  Phase I,  the emphasis has been placed  on  compiling as  much
information as  possible on the major  precursors  of acid precipitation (i.e., sulphur and
nitrogen  oxides) and the primary sources of these  emissions.  A major effort  will  be
undertaken during Phase II to upgrade the information presented in this document and to
analyze various emission control strategies for the sources of acid deposition.

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                                         11
           The first chapter of this report summarizes the major findings and conclusions
in terms of the major analytical elements:  emissions, technology for control, and costs.
The  remainder of the report is structured to closely follow the Terms of Reference for
Work  Group  3B.   Chapter B  presents  data  and  information  on  emission  control
technologies and associated costs for all major source categories. Chapter C analyzes the
historical emission trends for the United States and Canada while Chapter D presents data
on current emissions  for  the two  countries.   Chapter E projects U.S. and  Canadian
emissions for various source categories through the year 2000.  The final chapter of this
report lays out the future  course of action for Work Group 3B and suggests some future
R&D needs.
           This document is only the Phase I  report and is expected to undergo substantial
revision in  succeeding phases.  In its current form, the report is a good "strawman" for the
Work Group's future efforts, and ultimately in its final form (at the conclusion of Phase II)
will provide the technical basis for negotiations between the United States and Canada for
an agreement covering the  major aspects of transboundary air pollution.

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                                      Ill

TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                                          Page

PREFACE                                                                    i

LIST OF TABLES                                                             vi

LIST OF FIGURES                                                            ix

A.        SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS                          1

A.I       INTRODUCTION                                                     1

A.2       THERMAL POWER - CONTROL TECHNOLOGY SUMMARY                2

A.3       NON-FERROUS SMELTING SUMMARY                                 7

A.4       MOBILE SOURCES SUMMARY                                         8

A.5       INDUSTRIAL, COMMERICAL, RESIDENTIAL FUEL
          COMBUSTION                                                       9

A.6       EMISSIONS SUMMARY                                              12

B.        SOURCE SECTORS OF CONCERN                                    17

B.I       THERMAL POWER                                                  18

B.I.I      Description                                                         18
B.I.2      Control Technologies                                                25
B.I.2.1    Technologies In use                                                  37
B.I.2.2    Available Technologies                                              38
B.I.2.3    Emerging Technologies                                              38
B.I.3      Alternative Production Processes                                      39

B.2       NON-FERROUS SMELTERS                                           40

B.2.1      Description of the Non-Ferrous Smelting Sector                         40
B.2.2      Control Technology                                                  40
B.2.2.1    Control Technology In  Use                                            46
B.2.2.2    Control Technology Available                                         50
B.2.2.3    Emerging Control Technology                                         52
B.2.3      Alternative Production Processes                                      54
B.2.4      Preliminary Cost of Control for Eastern Canadian Smelters                55

B.3       MOBILE SOURCES                                                  57

B.3.1      Description of Sector                                                57
B.3.2      Control Technologies                                                57
B.3.2.1    United States - New Vehicles                                          57
B.3.2.1.1   Light Duty Vehicles                                                 57

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                                      IV

                                                                          Page

B.3.2.1.2   Light Duty Trucks                                                   59
B.3.2.1.3   Heavy Duty Trucks                                                   59
B.3.2.1.4   Cost of U.S. FMVCP                                                  59
B.3.2.2    United States - In Use Vehicles                                        60
B.3.2.2.1   Inspection and Maintenance                                           60
B.3.2.2.2   Transportation Control Measures                                       61
B.3.2.3    Canada - New Vehicles                                               62
B.3.2.4    Canada - In Use Vehicles                                              62

B.4       PETROLEUM REFINING                                              63

B.4.1      Canadian Petroleum Refineries                                        63
B.4.1.1    Production Processes                                                 63
B.4.1.2    Separation                                                          63
B.4.1.3    Conversion                                                          63
B.4.1.4    Treating                                                            63
B.4.1.5    Blending                                                            63
B.4.1.6    Emissions                                                           63
B.4.2      United States Petroleum Refining                                      64

B.5       INDUSTRIAL, RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL
          FUEL  COMBUSTION                                                 65

B.5.1      Industrial Combustion Units                                           65
B.5.2      NOX and SO2 Control Technologies Available                            66
B.5.3      Residential  and Commercial Combustion Units                           66

B.6       INCINERATORS                                                     70

B.7       PULP  AND  PAPER INDUSTRY                                        72

B.7.1      United States Pulp and Paper Industry                                  72
B.7.2      Canadian Pulp and Paper Industry                                      72

C         HISTORICAL EMISSION TRENDS                                      73

C.I       INTRODUCTION                                                     73

C.2       IN THE UNITED STATES                                              74

C.3       IN CANADA                                                        83

D.        PRESENT EMISSION RATES                                           89

D.I       IN THE UNITED STATES                                              89

D.2       IN CANADA                                                       103

E.        PROJECTED EMISSIONS                                             112

E.I       IN THE UNITED STATES                                             112

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                                                                       Page

E.2       IN CANADA                                                     128

E.2.1      Projected Emissions-Thermal Power                                  128
E.2.2      Projected Emissions from Copper-Nickel Smelter
          Complexes                                                       13*
E.2.3      Projected Emissions - Mobile Sources                                 1*2

F.        CONSTRAINTS ON AND BOUNDARIES OF
          ANALYSIS                                                       1*3

G.        RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE APPLIED
          R & D ACTIVITIES                                                1**

APPENDIX 1                                                              1*7

APPENDIX 2                                                              153

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                                 VI

LIST OF TABLES


                                                                 Page

A.2.1     CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES FOR SO2 REDUCTION                   *

A.6.1     CURRENT NATIONWIDE EMISSIONS OF SOX AND NOX
         IN THE U.S. AND CANADA                                     1*

A.6.2     PROJECTED EMISSIONS OF SOX AND NOX IN
         CANADA                                      «             15

A.6.3     SOX PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING COMBINED
         MODELS (UNITED STATES)                                     16

A.6.4     NOX PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING COMBINED
         MODELS (UNITED STATES)                                     16

B.I.I      COMPARISON OF GENERATING CAPACITY MIX,
         BY PROVINCE, 1977 and 1989 (PER CENT)                          19

B.1.2     COMPARISON OF GENERATION MIX, BY PROVINCE,
         1977 and 1989 (PER CENT)                                      20

B.I.3     U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITY GENERATION BY ENERGY
         SOURCE (1979)                                               21

B.1.4     SUMMARY OF CAPACITY AND GENERATION FOR
         FOSSIL-FUEL-FIRED PLANTS BY STATE AND REGION, 1978           23

B.1.5     TYPICAL UNCONTROLLED EMISSIONS OF POLLUTANTS              26

B.2.1      GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF NON-FERROUS SMELTER
         SECTOR - PRESENT CONDITIONS                                41

B.2.2     GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF NON-FERROUS SMELTER
         CONTAMINANT - SO2                                         42

B.2.3     PRIMARY COPPER SMELTERS, 1979 (UNITED STATES)                44

B.2.4     COST OF FIXING SULPHUR AS SULPHURIC  ACID
         FROM SMELTER GASES USING SINGLE CATALYSIS
         ACID PLANT                                                 47

B.2.5     COST OF RECOVERING LIQUID SULPHUR
         DIOXIDE FROM  SMELTER GASES                                48

B.2.6     COPPER/NICKEL SMELTER SO2 CONTROL SYSTEMS                 50

B.2.7     COST OF SULPHUR FIXATION WITH NEUTRALIZATION
         AND GYPSUM IMPOUNDING                                    51

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                                   vu

                                                                    Page

B.3.1     COST OF COMPONENTS IN A THREE-WAY PLUS
         OXIDATION CATALYST SYSTEM                                  58

B.3.2     TOTAL ANNUAL COST OF THE FMVCP IN 1987                       60

C.2.1     SUMMARY OF NATIONWIDE TOTAL EMISSION
         ESTIMATES                                                   75

C.2.2     ESTIMATED NATIONWIDE EMISSIONS, 1940                          76

C.2.3     SOX EMISSIONS                                                 78

C.2.4     HISTORICAL TRENDS IN SO2 EMISSIONS                            79

C.2.5     HISTORICAL TRENDS IN NOX EMISSIONS                            80

C.3.1     HISTORICAL EMISSIONS OF SO2 AND
         NOX - CANADA                                                84

C.3.2     HISTORICAL EMISSIONS OF SO2 AND NOX
         - EASTERN CANADA                                            85

D.I.I     CURRENT (1978) EMISSIONS OF SO2 AND
         NOX - U.S.                                                    91

D.I.2     1978 SO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS BY STATE                            92

D.I.3     1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - UTILITIES                                  93

D.I.4     1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - INDUSTRIAL BOILERS                        95

D.1.5     1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES                      97

D.1.6     1978 U.S. EMISSIONS - TRANSPORTATION                           99

D.1.7     1978 U.S. EMISSIONS - COMMERCIAL/RESIDENTIAL                 100

D.1.8     1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL                     101

D.2.1     CURRENT (1976-1980) EMISSIONS OF SO2
         AND NOX - CANADA                                           104

D.2.2     CURRENT (1976-1980) EMISSIONS OF SO2
         AND NOX - EASTERN CANADA                                  104

D.2.3     S02 EMISSIONS FROM DEFINED CANADIAN SOURCE
         REGIONS - 1976-80 DATA BASE                                  107

D.2.4     SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CANADIAN SO2
         AND NOX EMISSIONS                                           107

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                                 viii

                                                                 Page

D.2.5     SUMMARY OF NATURAL EMISSIONS OF SULPHUR INTO
         THE ATMOSPHERE IN CANADA                                109

D.2.6     SUMMARY OF NATURAL EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN INTO
         THE ATMOSPHERE IN CANADA                                110

E.I.I     NATIONAL SOX PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING
         SEAS MODEL                                               113

E.1.2     NATIONAL NOX PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING SEAS
         MODEL                                                   113

E.I.3     NATIONAL SOX PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING
         COMBINED MODELS                                         11*

E.I.4     NATIONAL NOX PROJECTED EMISSIONS UGING
         COMBINED MODELS                                         11*

E.I.5     ICF SCENARIO RUNS                                        115

E.1.6     SCENARIO DESCRIPTION FOR TRI ANALYSIS                     116

E.I.7     ENERGY CONSUMPTION COMPARISON
         DOE/TRI/ICF                                               118

E.1.8     KEY ASSUMPTIONS                                          119

E.1.9     1990 FORECASTS FOR COMMON SCENARIOS                     120

E.I.10    1990 FORECAST FOR CEUM RUNS                              121

E.I.11    1990 FORECAST FOR USM/AIR TEST RUNS                       122

E.I.12    USM COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES                            123

E.I.13    NATIONAL ANNUAL UTILITY COSTS: 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000          12*

.E.2.1     COMPARISON OF GENERATING CAPACITY MIX,
         BY PROVINCE, 1977 AND 1989 (PERCENT)                        129

E.2.2     COMPARISON OF GENERATION MIX, BY PROVINCE,
         1977 AND 1989 (PERCENT)                                     130

E.2.3     THERMAL POWER - PROJECTED SOX AND NOX EMISSIONS           133

E.2.*     502 EMISSION ESTIMATES BY OPERATION, 1980                   135

E.2.5     PROJECTED SO2 EMISSIONS FROM COPPER-
         NICKEL SMELTER COMPLEXES, ANNUAL  TOTALS AND
         5-YEAR AVERAGES, 1980-2000                                 138

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                                  IX

LIST OF FIGURES


                                                                  Page

A.5.1     FGD CAPITAL COSTS VERSUS UNIT SIZE                           10

A.5.2     FGD ANNUALIZED COSTS VERSUS UNIT SIZE                       11

B.2.1      PRIMARY U.S. NON-FERROUS SMELTING AND
         REFINING LOCATIONS                                         43

B.5.1      FGD CAPITAL COSTS VERSUS UNIT SIZE                           67

B.5.2     FGD ANNUALIZED COSTS VERSUS UNIT SIZE                       68

D.2.1     DEFINED CANADIAN SOURCE REGIONS -
         127 km x 127 km GRID                                         106

E.1.1      NATIONAL UTILITY SULPHUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS
         1980-2000 AS PROJECTED BY USM                               125

E.I.2     PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM BASE CASE NATIONAL
         INVESTOR ELECTRICITY PRICES AS PROJECTED BY USM            126

E.2.1      SO2 EMISSION PROJECTIONS, ANNUAL AVERAGES,
         1980-2000                                                  136

E.2.2     S02 EMISSIONS FROM COPPER-NICKEL SMELTERS,
         ACTUAL AND PROJECTED, FIVE YEAR AVERAGES,
         1950-2000                                                   139

E.2.3     PAST AND PROJECTED SO2 EMISSION DECREASES
         EXPRESSED AS A PERCENTAGE OF PEAK EMISSIONS
         IN 1965-69 (BASED ON SCENARIO II PROJECTION)

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                                         1
A.         SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

A.1        INTRODUCTION

           This is an  interim report by Work Group 3B (Emissions, Costs and Engineering
Assessment)  as  part  of the commitment in fulfillment  of  the requirements of  the
MEMORANDUM OF INTENT signed by the United States and Canada on August 5, 1980.
The  Terms  of  Reference and  the membership for Work Group 3B  can be  found in
Appendix 1 of this report.
           This report reviews, in detail, the technologies (process and control), costs of
application of controls for the  reduction of 5O9 and NO  emissions (for both new  and
                                             ^        J\
retrofit installations;  costs for retrofit installations are generally greater than for new
installations), and emissions  (historical, present and projected) for the  thermal power
industry sector (eastern U.S. and Canada), non-ferrous smelters  (eastern Canada)  and
mobile sources (U.S. and Canada).  These sectors, together with industrial, residential and
commercial fuel combustion, account for  the majority of the SO  and NO  emissions in
                                                             yv        A
the eastern part of North America, and hence are judged to be the most important sources
in the acid precipitation  problem.  A more brief review is carried out  for  petroleum
refining, solid waste incineration and pulp and paper. These sectors are considered to be
of secondary importance to the acid  precipitation problem since their emissions of SO
                                                                                 sv
and NO  are considerably smaller in magnitude than those of the three primary sectors.
Note  that all emissions in Chapter A are in short  tons,  while emissions in subsequent
chapters are partly in  short tons and partly in tonnes (metric).
           Included in this report are recommendations for future  R&D  activities  and
conclusions and recommendations concerning the control of SO  and NO emissions.

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                                         2
A.2        THERMAL POWER - CONTROL TECHNOLOGY SUMMARY

SO  Reduction
           Control of SO- emissions has become a complex problem with several options
available and many factors involved in making the choice between them.  One of the main
problems is that some of the factors are intangible in nature and are therefore difficult to
quantify.
           Sulphur oxide emissions can be reduced by several methods
1)   use of naturally occurring low-sulphur fuel
2)   removal of the sulphur before combustion
3)   reaction with an absorbent during combustion
4)   removal of the sulphur after combustion
           In rating the alternatives for  SO- control,  the  major consideration  is the
degree of control required.  Some processes are capable of a very high removal efficiency
but are expensive;  others cost much less but are  limited to a relatively low  level of
removal efficiency.
           The  following recommendations are made for process  choice at different
required  levels of emission reduction.  It should be noted  that these are only approximate
and  that  site-specific  conditions  could well change  the ranking.  The  rankings are
judgmental in nature, based on a subjective evaluation of factors such as cost, commercial
viability, absorption efficiency, and process reliability. A more quantitative approach to
ranking does not seem feasible in view of all the uncertainties involved.
Removal efficiency level, %                 Process listing
Higher than 90%                           1.    Double alkali
                                          2.    Limestone scrubbing with promoters
                                          3.    Coal gasification (combined  cycle)a
                                          4.    Regenerable scrubbing processes
90%                                      1.    Limestone scrubbing with promoters
                                          2.    Limestone scrubbing
                                          3.    Double alkali
     When and if developed.

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50-90% (high-sulphur coal)
50-90% (low-sulphur coal)
Below 50%
1.   Limestone scrubbing (with physical
     coal cleaning where upper limit on
     SO- emission applies)
2.   Fluidized-bed combustion3
3.   Chemical coal cleaning
i*.   Low-sulphur fuel substitution
     (not a sulphur removal process)
5.   Limestone injected through modified
     burner'3
1.   Spray drier process
2.   Limestone scrubbing
1.   Physical coal cleaning
2.   Blending with low-sulphur coal
aWhen and if developed.
bUnder development.
          Table A.2.1  summarizes  the cost data available for sulfur oxide controls on
thermal power plants.  Physical coal cleaning costs approximately $15 per ton of coal for
high-sulfur coals (i.e., approximately $0.22 per pound of sulfur removal).  (For low-sulfur
coals the price is considerably higher i.e., around $1.88 per pound of sulfur removal).
          The cost for flue gas desulphurization (FGD) ranges between $120 - $200 per
kilowatt  of  installed capacity.  Using  lime  instead of limestone raises the costs.   FGD
recovery processes, such as the dual alkali and Wellman-Lord processes, tend to be more
expensive than  wet scrubbling.  Dry scrubbers cost $120 - $140 per kilowatt of installed
capacity  but the technology is still under development and the cost estimates are rising.
Generally, there is a  wide  range  in  the costs of FGD  systems due  to site-specific
variables.
NO  Reduction
          Several approaches can be used for NO control.  Low-nitrogen fuel is one of
these but is  not as effective as low-sulphur fuel is for SC>2 because part of the NOX comes
from the  combustion air rather than the fuel.  Combustion modification, the most cost-
effective method, is used to some degree. If flue  gas treatment is required, injection of
ammonia to reduce NO  to nitrogen  is  favoured. Use of a catalyst promotes the reaction
                     X

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               Table A.2.1
CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES FOR SO2 REDUCTION
SYSTEM
Wet F.G.D.
Limestone
Lime



Dual
Alkali
Wellman
Lord
Dry Scrubber





Low-Sulphur
Fuel








Physical
Coal Cleaning

PERFORMANCE
Acceptable
Availability
(90% or >)



Acceptable
Availability
Limited experience
so far.
Limited experience
so far.














Effective up to
25% sulphur removal.

COST
Limestone:
$120-$200/kW
Lime:
~$200/kW


Actual
$80-$2<(2/kW
Actual
$259/kW
$120-$140/kW
including
e.s.p., but
rising


Coal
Cost
dependent
very much
on transport
distance Ic.
charges.
Oil
Adds $5 per
barrel
Can add
up to $15
per ton.
APPLICABILITY
All fuels





All fuels

All fuels

Low sulphur
fuels





Coal






Oil

Used for high
pyritic sulphur
coals.
UNCERTAINTY
Cost is a function
of size, sulphur
content, location,
redundancy of equip-
ment, whether ash
removal included.
Limited experience.

Uncertain market for
by-products.
Performance data
sparse.





Incremental costs,
availability of
supplies.




As above.

Coal variability
and expansion of
existing facilities
WASTE DISPOSAL
Preferably oxidized
to gypsum, otherwise
settling problems
in ponds and land-
fill, unless
chemically fixed.
As above.

Potential water
pollution problem.
Lime systems have
minimal problems,
whereas soda-based
units have potential
water pollution
problems.

No problem.








Water pollution
and solid waste
disposal.
PROBLEMS
Waste disposal
because of volumes.
Utilities sceptical
of costs and relia-
bility.

As above.

High Cost.

Waste disposal
involves large
volumes. Opera-
tional difficulties
with variations in
coal characteristics.

Boiler derating,
effects on
precipitator,
transportation,
logistics.




Energy losses,
maintaining quality
control.

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and is preferred over non-catalytic operation.  Various wet scrubbing methods have been

developed but none seems very promising.

           The situation for  NO   is the same as for other pollutants.  The selection of

abatement method  depends on the degree of control required.   A rough  ranking  is as

follows:

Removal efficiency level, %                Process listing

90% or higher                             1.    Catalytic reduction3 with more than
                                               normal amount of catalyst, preceded
                                               by combustion modifications

50-80%                                    1.    As above, with normal amount of
                                               catalyst

                                          2.    Combustion modifications (all types)
                                               followed by  non-catalytic reduction
                                               (ammonia injection without catalyst)

                                          3.    Combustion modifications alone  (for
                                               low part of range so as to minimize
                                               boiler problems)

                                          4.    Low-NOx burners

Below 50%                                1.    Staged combustion

                                          2.    Low-NO  burners
                                                                              h
                                          3.    Gas recirculation (except for coal )
a Technology has not been proven with respect to coal-fired boilers.

b    Used in combination  with others if necessary to achieve the  required reduction

     level.

          The  capital costs  associated  with the- use  of  combustion  modification

techniques for the control of NO emissions from thermal power plants are estimated at:
                              J\


Techniques                      Capital Cost                 NO   Emission Limit
                                                               X
Low Excess Air                  $0                           0.9lb per 106 Btu

Staged Combustion               $2-3/kW                     0.7 Ib per 10$ Btu
(over-fired air)

Low-NOv  Burners                $2-$10/kW                   0.4-0.5 Ib per 10^ Btu

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           The capital cost estimates for NO  control vary considerably  due to site -
specific variables (e.g., boiler type).  The uncertainity in the cost data ranges from -10
percent to +30 percent. Furthermore, the cost of flue gas treatment (FGT) processes for
NO  control have not yet been determined.
   yv

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                                         7
A.3        NON-FERROUS SMELTING SUMMARY

           The process technology in use varies from smelter to smelter.  A majority of
the smelters use the roaster - reverberatory furnace - converter  process which is  not
amenable to a high degree of  $©2  control,  at reasonable cost, owing to the weak  gas
streams produced.  Some copper-nickel smelters utilize more modern process technology,
and in some cases SC^ emissions are controlled. (Level of control varies from smelter to
smelter.)
           The most applicable control technology in use is the production of sulphuric
acid in a contact acid plant. Two constraints limit the use of this control technology:
      weak SO- streams (under 4%  SO-) are not suitable for contact acid plants and a
      number of smelters do not have strong gas streams;
      markets for sulphuric acid are  limited,  and it is possible that not all the acid
      produced could be marketed.
           For any  major SO- control program to succeed it would be necessary to:
      improve or replace existing process technology (with weak SO- streams) with new
      process technology which produces higher-strength SOj streams (suitable  process
      technology is available in the majority of the cases); and
b)    find markets for the sulphuric acid.
           Two other problems areas are identified:
      in  many  smelters, some  weak gas streams  will remain, even  with new  process
      technology, and SO2 emission control technology for weak gas streams in this sector
      is in the early development stages; and
      the choice of smelter processes to handle dirty concentrates is limited, which in
      turn may reduce the level of  $©2 control achievable at smelters handling dirty
      concentrates.
           A preliminary cost estimate has been developed for eastern Canadian copper-
nickel smelters. The estimated cost  of reducing eastern Canadian smelter $©2 emissions
(at capacity operations) from 2.97 million tons per year to 1.30 million  tons per year is
$1.1 billion capital  and $120-$ 150 million  annualized  costs  (includes  both capital  and
incremental operating costs).

-------
           MOBILE SOURCES SUMMARY
           The mobile sources sector is a major source of NO  emissions.  SO  emissions
                                                         A              A
from this sector are small and have  not been considered in the interim report.  Control
technology is available for the control of NO emissions from mobile sources.  The use of
                                          A
the newer NO control technologies is being expanded and NO  regulatory emission limits
             A                                           A
are gradually being reduced for new vehicles.
           NO emissions from "in-use" vehicles are  becoming a major part of the mobile
              A
sources NO   problem and  new programs are addressing this  problem  by  legislating
improved  maintenance requirements for such  vehicles.   These  programs, coupled  with
more stringent new-vehicle NO emission limits, should reduce total NO  emissions  from
                             A                                      A
mobile sources, despite the continuing increase in the total number of vehicles.
           The technology  for  meeting  the  current  automobile  emission  standards
employs the catalyst technology, coupled with a series of electronic and vacuum sensing
devices which detect and control selected  engine operating parameters.  A so-called
three-way catalyst  (incorporating  NO   reduction as well) is being used on many of the
                                   A
1980 production cars.  The  system costs approximately $300 per car.  Including fuel and
maintenance  savings,  the  cost  of the  U.S. Federal  Motor Vehicle  Control Program
(FMVCP) for  cars, trucks, heavy-duty vehicles,  motorcycles, and  aircraft is estimated to
be $6.6 billion by 1987.  The cost of the inspection and maintenance component of this
program is estimated at $400 million annually.

-------
                                          9
A.5  INDUSTRIAL, COMMERCIAL, AND RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION

           Industrial, commercial and residential fuel combustion accounts for approxi-
mately 25  percent of combined U.S.-Canada SO- emissions and approximately 25 percent
of their combined NO  emissions.  The fuel use sector is characterized by a wide diversity
in boiler  sizes  (i.e., from 105  Btu/hr  to greater than  250 x 106  Btu/hr), combustion
systems,  and  fuel  characteristics.    In  addition,  the  technical  expertise  of  the
owner/operator  varies from the homeowner to the skilled technician.  Industrial boilers
are the major concern in this sector.
           Flue gas desulfurization can lower potential sulfur oxide emissions by up to 90
percent.  Fluid bed combustion can achieve a 70-85 percent SO2 reduction at costs which
are competitive with flue gas desulfurization. The dual-alkali wet flue gas desulfurization
process is  the dominant sulfur  oxide  control technology  for industrial boilers.  Sodium
once-through systems  are used in industries  which produce a sodium-containing waste
stream such as pulp  and paper and textile mills (from  de-ionizer recharging).   There are
two commercial installations of the lime spray dryer SO- control process.
           As in utility  boilers,  combustion  modification  is  the  principal method  of
controlling  NO   emissions.    In  California,  several  thermal-NO    (non-catalytic  NO
control) installations have been purchased; however, none is in commercial operation at
this time.  The NO emission limits that are achievable using combustion modification are
                  A
dependent  upon  the fuel type (oil, coal, gas) and firing  method (for coal, pulverized coal,
chain-grate stoker, vibrating-grate stoker, and spreader stoker).
           The cost  of SO* control technology varies as  a function  of boiler  size, load
factor, and fuel sulfur content.  Thus the uncertainty in capital and annual costs can be
large.  The capital costs and operating costs shown in Figures A.5.1 and A.5.2  can be in
error by as much as +40  percent.  The cost of retrofitting industrial boilers is highly
uncertain since space limitations and other restrictions can cause significant variations.
           Control technology for commercial  and  residential boilers has not progressed
as rapidly as for the larger boilers, primarily because of the considerably smaller emission
reduction potential for  this sector.   However, results of research  indicate that some
emission reduction is  economically possible for   commercial  and  residential  boilers.
Precise cost  figures for these boilers are not available,  but preliminary indications are.
that any increase in cost will be greatly offset by the fuel savings and increased thermal
efficiency.

-------
                            10
      4OOO
      3OOO
   in
   .2
   "o

   "o
«  2000
ID
0
u
5
'5.
O
      1OOO
               Wellman-Lord
                                              Double Alkali
                    Limestone
                                           Sodium Throwaway
                                                               _L
                      29.3         58.6         87.9
                      (10O)         (2OO)         (300)
                          Size in MWt (106Btu/hr)
                                                          117.2
                                                          (400)
FIGURE A.5.1
              F6D CAPITAL COSTS VERSUS  UNIT SIZE
                     (3.5% S coal, 9O% removal)
Source:  Technical  Assessment Report  for  Industrial Boiler Applications:
         Flue Gas Desulfurization
         Industrial Environmental Laboratory;  USA E.P.A.
         November 1979

-------
                              11
        20oor
        1500
     2
     a
     "o
     n
     O
     §  10OO
     u
     •o
     a
     3
     C
     C
         50O
                                                               Dual Alkali
                                                                 Sodium Throwaway
                        29.3          58.6          87.9
                       (100)         (200)        (300)
                           Size in MWt (1O6 Btu/hr)
                                              117.2
                                              (400)
FIGURE A.5.2.
FQD ANNUALIZED COSTS VERSUS UNIT SIZE
         (3.5% S coal, 9O% removal)
Source:  Technical Assessment Report for Industrial Boiler Applications:
         Flue Gas Desulfurization
         Industrial  Environmental Laboratory; USA E.P.A.
         November 1979

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                                         12
A.6  EMISSIONS SUMMARY

           Historical,  present, and  projected emissions of the  main acid precipitation
precursor pollutants in both Canada and the United States are assessed.  The data have
been accumulated in a variety of formats and are presented in this interim report in the
form of tables and figures, on  the basis of the sectors of the economy of most concern at
this  time, at the state,  regional,  provincial and national  levels, and on  a grid  array.
Confidence  limits are put  on some of  the data, seasonal variations  for  some  of the
emissions are assessed,  and  an  insight into natural  sources of emissions is  provided.
Projected emissions are analyzed according to a variety of control scenarios.
           Emissions of SO- in the  eastern U.S.  rose from close to  12 million tons in 1950
to about 25 million tons in 1965 before essentially stabilizing at that level up to the year
1978.  In eastern Canada SO- emissions in 1979 were about 4.5 million tons,  the same
level as in 1955, after having peaked in 1965 at close to 6 million tons.  The southeast and
midwest states  shared the bulk of the increase  in  U.S.   emissions.   In Canada the
fluctuation was largely due to  significant changes in the copper-nickel smelting industry.
           NO  emissions in the eastern U.S. increased significantly in all areas over the
              A
1950-78 period.  The steady increase ranged from about a factor of two in the northeast
to over three in the south.   Emissions  which were at a level of  7 million tons in 1950
reached more than 19 million  tons in 1978.  In eastern Canada NO emissions have also
                                                                A
been rising significantly but from a level of less than  0.5 million tons in  1955 to a little
less than  1.5 million tons in 1977.   In eastern North America as a whole  the important
increases  in  NO   emissions are attributed  to power plant and transportation  activities.
During the 1976-80 period, yearly $©2 emissions in eastern North America (i.e.,  both U.S.
and Canada) have amounted to close to 29  million  tons.  The ratio of U.S.  to  Canadian
SO 2 emissions in the east is 5.5 to 1.
           Thermal power plants are the primary source and contribute about 60% of the
combined U.S.-Canada nationwide  emissions.  The second  most important  category of
emission  sources, at about 25% of the combined nationwide emissions,  is  that  which
includes industrial, commercial, and residential fuel combustion.  Then at about 10% are
the emissions of SO-  from non-ferrous smelters.   The primary  contributor to present
domestic SO^ emissions differs in the U.S. and Canada.  In the U.S. about  two-thirds of
total domestic emissions come from power plants, while in Canada  about 40% come from
non-ferrous smelters. About 20 million tons of $©2 comes from  American power  plants,

-------
                                         13
about 2 million tons of SO- comes from Canadian non-ferrous smelters. About 15% of the
SO7 generated in Canada comes from thermal power plants.
           In the next two decades, U.S. SO- emissions from power plants are projected
to remain roughly constant (in fact, recent evidence suggests they may even decline).  In
Canada,  SO  emissions from  thermal power plants are expected to increase from 0.8
           A
million tons (1980) to 1.* millions tons (2000) unless controls are instituted  for thermal
power  plants.   With  controls,  Canadian SO-  emissions from  thermal power plants  could
decrease.
           In eastern  North America  present  NO  emissions amount yearly to almost
                                               A.
21 million tons.  The  ratio of U.S. to Canadian emissions in the east is roughly  15 to 1, and
close to half of the combined emissions come  from the transportation sector.  One quarter
of combined U.S.-Canada NO  emissions are contributed by power plants and another
quarter  by  other   combustion  processes  (industrial,   commercial,  residential   fuel
combustion).
           With respect to NO  discharges from power generating stations, an increase  of
about 50% is projected by the year 2000 from  U.S. units.  In Canada, uncontrolled  NO
                                                                                  X
tonnage is expected to rise from 330 kilotons per year to 700 kilotons by the end of  2000.
If lax controls were applied, to the same new and existing stations as considered above for
SO- reductions, emissions would decline  by about 80 kilotons or 15%. If strict controls
were added, the reduction would be to 150 kilotons or 77%.
           Transportation sector emissions in  the U.S. in the next 15-20 years are not
expected to vary significantly from their  present levels because of larger  numbers  of
lower-emitting  vehicles,  unless projected automobile regulations are relaxed.  In Canada,
in  the  absence  of further control action at  either  the design or in-use levels,   NO
emissions in 1990 are projected to be 30 to 50% greater than present levels.  If, however,
more stringent  new-vehicle emission standards were adopted with the 1985 models,  then
NO  emissions  in 1990 would  be about 20% less than 1980 levels.  In both countries the
   J\
tampering rate  might be reduced by an  inspection program on in-use vehicles.
           Projected  $©2 emissions from Canadian copper-nickel smelting complexes  to
the year 2000 indicate at worst the same level  as in 1980, i.e., less than  2.0  million tons
per year, and at best a level  of 0.8 million tons.  The level  attained will depend on the
implementation of additional environmental control and technological improvements.  In
the U.S. the  $©2 emissions come from  copper smelters located  in western  and south-
western  states  and  are  therefore  unlikely to  play  a  significant role  in the eastern
North America  acid precipitation issue.

-------
                                         14
           SO2 emissions from industrial, commercial and residential fuel combustion are
projected to increase about 50 percent in the U.S. over the next two decades (i.e., from
7.3 million tons in 1980 to 10.9 millions tons in 2000).  NO  emissions from these sources
will also increase significantly (i.e., from  7.1 million tons in 1980 to 9.1 millions tons by
the year  2000).  In Canada,  SO9 and  NO  emissions  from industrial,  commercial  and
                               £m         A
residential fuel combustion will also increase but not significantly.  For $©2 emissions,
the increase is from 1.1 million tons to 1.2 million tons (10 percent); for NO , the increase
is from 0.6 million tons to 0.7 million tons (20 percent).
           Present  SOX and NOX emissions data for the  U.S. and Canada are presented in
Table A.6.1.  Projected  SOX and NOX emissions for the U.S. and Canada are presented in
Tables A.6.2 to A.6.4.  These projections are based on "status quo" considerations and do
not include any major emission reduction resulting  from significant  control measures of
the acid precipitation program.

TABLE A.6.1    CURRENT NATIONWIDE EMISSIONS OF SOV  AND NOV IN THE U.S.
                                 -                       A         J\
                AND CANADA (106 tons)
U.S.A. (1980 Estimated) Canada 1979*

Utilities
Industrial Boilers/
Process Heaters/
Residential/Commercial
Non-ferrous Smelters
Transportation
Iron Ore Processing
Other
TOTAL
N0x
6.2
7.1
0.0
9.0
-
-
22.3
S0x
19.5
7.3
2.0
.9
-
-
29.7
N0x
0.3
0.6
0.0
1.1
-
0.2
2.2
S0x
0.8
1.1
2.2
0.1
0.2
0.9
5.3
Total
NOX
6.5
7.7
0.0
10.1
-
0.2
24.5

S0x
20.3
8.4
4.2
1.0
0.2
0.9
35.0
* Inco, Sudbury at 1980 emission rate.

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                                  15




TABLE A.6.2   PRO3ECTED EMISSIONS OF SOx AND NOx IN CANADA (10$ tons)


NOx TRENDS
Utility Boiler
Industrial, Residential
and Commercial
Fuel Combustion
Non-ferrous Smelters (Cu/Ni)
Transportation
Other
TOTAL
SO TRENDS
A
Utility Boiler
Industrial, Residential
and Commercial
Fuel Combustion
Non-ferrous Smelters (Cu/Ni)
Transportation
Iron Ore Processing
Other
TOTAL
Year
1980

0.3
0.6
-
1.1
0.2
2.5
0.8
1.1
2.2
0.1
0.2
0.9
5.3
Source: Data Analysis Division, Air
Canada
Note: Based on a "status

1985

0.4
0.6
-
1.3
0.2
2.5
1.1
1.1
2.0
0.1
0.2
0.9
5.4
Pollution Control

1990

0.6
0.7
-
1.5
0.2
3.0
1.2
1.2
2.0
0.1
0.2
0.9
5.6
Directorate,

1995

0.6
0.7
-
1.6
0.2
3.1
1.3
1.2
2.0
0.1
0.2
0.9
5.7
Environment

2000

0.7
0.7
-
1.8
0.2
3.4
1.4
1.2
2.0
0.1
0.2
0.9
5.8

quo" scenario.

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                                      16

TABLE A.6.3    SOx PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING COMBINED MODELS (UNITED

               STATES) (106 tons)

Utility Boiler
Industrial
Boiler/Process Heat
Non-ferrous Smelters
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
TOTAL
1980
19.5
5.9
2.0
1.*
0.9
29.7
1985
17.9
5.7
0.77 .
1.*
0.9
26.7
1990
18.6
6.8
0.60
1.2
0.9
28.1
1995
19.0
8.6
0.56
0.9
0.9
30.0
2000
18.5
10.3
0.52
0.6
0.9
30.8
Source:    These emissions estimates based on 1980 trends but projected with % change
          of models (utility - TRI; industrial ICF; RES/COM - SEAS; Transportation Ann
          Arbor), NF Smelters from an actual unit-by-unit survey.


TABLE A.6.4   NOx PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING COMBINED MODELS (UNITED

              STATES) (106 tons)

Utility Boiler
Industrial
Boiler/Process Heat
Non-ferrous Smelters
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
TOTAL
Source: These emissions
1980
6.2
6.2
0.0
0.9
9.0
22.3
estimates based
1985
6.8
6.5
0.0
0.9
8.3
22.5
on 1980
1990
7.6
6.9
0.0
0.8
8.6
23.9
trends but proiec
1995
8.4
7.6
0.0
0.8
9.4
26.2
ted with % cl
2000
9.2
8.4
0.0
0.7
10.2
28.5
lanee
          of models (utility - TRI; industrial ICF; RES/COM - SEAS; Transportation Ann
          Arbor), NF Smelters from an actual unit-by-unit survey.

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                                         17
B.         SOURCE SECTORS OF CONCERN

           This chapter describes the industry sectors that are major sources of SO  and
                                                                               A
NO , and the control technologies that are either currently available or will be in the near
future.  The emission sources discussed are thermal power plants (fossil fuels), non-ferrous
smelters, mobile sources (transportation), pulp and paper, petroleum refining, industrial,
residential and commercial fuel combustion and incinerators. Other sectors, such as iron
ore processing plants, will be addressed in a subsequent report.
           Each sector is  described in terms of the production processes and capacities
and SO  and NO  emissions. This is followed by discussions of the control technologies in
      X        A
use, available  or emerging for each industry  sector.   The  control  technologies are
analyzed  in  terms of  performance,  cost,  applicability, technical  uncertainty  and
associated  problems.    Alternative  production  processes are  also  discussed  where
applicable.

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                                         18
B.I        THERMAL POWER

B.I.I      DESCRIPTION
The Canadian Sector
           Canada's electrical generating  capacity is expected to increase substantially
by  1990,  exceeding  1977  capacity by  over 60  percent (1).   This expansion  will be
noticeable in all three major  types of generation:   hydroelectric,  nuclear, and conven-
tional thermal.  Hydroelectric power will maintain its  leading role  in the  utility sector,
nuclear power will  grow by a factor of three, while thermal generation will increase to a
somewhat lesser degree, by about 50%.
           Conventional steam-electric  capacity, at 19 184 megawatts (MW)  in  1977, is
expected to increase  to approximately 28 900 MW by the end of 1989 (1).   All announced
steam-unit additions  by 1990 will  be  coal-fired.  This  added coal-burning capacity will
cause annual coal consumption to increase by 127 percent, from about 21 000 kilotonnes in
1977  to approximately  48 000 kilotonnes  in  1989.    The  majority of the  steam-unit
additions fall in the provinces of Alberta  and  British Columbia.
           Table B.I.I shows each province's percentage distribution of installed capacity
by generation type  for both 1977 and 1989.  The type categories are standard:  coal, oil,
gas,  nuclear, hydro, gas turbine, and internal combustion.
           The breakdowns for 1977 are  from the  reports of installed capacity; those for
1989 are from the schedule of expansion plans.  The  1989 distributions do not ,include the
effects  of any capacity penalties due to pollution control devices and therefore represent
the distributions that would occur in the case involving no active pollution control.  The
changes in the distributions due to the imposition of pollution control penalties  are not
great.
           In Table B.I.2 the generation mix by province is presented  for  the two years
1977 and  1989.   Note that  Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan, Alberta,  and British  Columbia
substantially  increase  the   share   of  their  generation  from   coal   units.     In
     Statistics Canada, Electric Power Statistics, vol. 1, Annual Electric Power Survey of
     Capability and Load  -  1979-1983 Forecast, 57-204 Annual  (Ottawa,  Ont.:   Manu-
     facturing and Primary Industries Division, Energy and  Minerals Section,  September
     1979); Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Electric Power in Canada - 1979
     (Canada:   Electrical  Section - Energy Policy Sector, 1980);  "Canada -Still Planning
     for a Strong 1980," Electrical World 1980 Statistical Report, 5 March 1980.

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TABLE B.I.I
                      19

COMPARISON OF GENERATING CAPACITY MIX, BY PROVINCE, 1977
and 1989 (PERCENT)
Province
P.E.I.
1977
1989
Nfld.
1977
1989
N.S.
1977
1989
N.B.
1977
1989
Que.
1977
1989
Ont.
1977
1989
Man.
1977
1989
Sask.
1977
1989
Alta.
1977
1989
B.C.
1977
1989
NATIONAL
1977
1989
Coal

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

22.70
47.66

6.22
10.53

0.00
0.00

34.20
29.80

12.67
10.10

45.28
65.10

58.69
75.07

0.00
14.37

18.82
19.74
Oil

57.89
57.89

4.54
6.31

51.37
28.88

60.63
40.26

4.28
1.60

9.08
6.06

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

7.84
4.56
Gas

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

5.22
3.49

0.00
0.00

19.15
12.21

19.71
12.51

12.64
6.70

5.30
3.14
Nuclear

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
20.16

1.39
1.69

17.61
37.82

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

6.37
12.16
Hydro

0.00
0.00

92.01
90.05

11.14
15.15

31.81
28.16

92.66
85.03

31.74
21.38

86.00
88.84

28.04
17.89

16.10
8.66

82.13
75.72

58.40
54.80
Turbine

35.96
35.96

2.48
2.72

14.73
8.28

1.11
0.74

1.21
11.39

2.11
1.41

0.76
0.61

7.43
4.74

4.69
3.32

4.02
2.57

2.78
5.28
Internal
Combustion

6.14
6.14

0.96
0.92

0.07
0.04

0.24
0.16

0.46
0.29

0.05
0.03

0.57
0.46

0.10
0.06

0.81
0.43

1.20
0.64

0.47
0.31

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                                  20

TABLE B.1.2    COMPARISON OF GENERATION MIX, BY PROVINCE, 1977 and 1989
             (PERCENT)
Province
P.E.I.
1977
1989
Nfld.
1977
1989
N.S.
1977
1989
N.B.
1977
1989
Que.
1977
1989
Ont.
1977
1989
Man.
1977
1989
Sask.
1977
1989
Alta.
1977
1989
B.C.
1977
1989
Coal

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

10.40
49.48

7.56
10.04

0.00
0.00

18.90
12.19

5.50
3.41

55.72
71.05

61.51
81.94

0.00
7.28

Oil

66.84
43.36

0.67
0.82

58.64
8.51

33.48
10.97

0.00
0.00

0.98
0.62

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

Gas

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.23
0.14

0.00
0.00

0.79
4.32

11.07
5.82

0.51
0.23

Nuclear

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
21.98

0.37
0.49

28.47
54.18

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

Hydro

0.00
0.00

99.19
99.05

19.14
33.47

57.99
56.94

99.55
99.05

51.33
32.80

94.40
96.53

43.17
24.40

27.12
12.08

99.21
92.35

Turbine

32.37
48.97

0.07
0.07

11.81
8.54

0.94
0.04

0.04
0.44

0.09
0.06

0.03
0.02

0.30
0.17

0.21
0.12

0.16
0.09

Internal
Combustion

0.79
7.66

0.07
0.06

0.01
0.01

0.03
0.02

0.04
0.03

0.01
0.00

0.06
0.04

0.01
0.06

0.09
0.04

0.12
0.05


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                                         21
Quebec,  Manitoba, Newfoundland and British Columbia, hydro generation maintains its
dominant role, accounting  for  well over 90 percent of generation in each of these
provinces in both 1977 and 1989. Because of the expected rise in the price of gas and oil,
the  utilization of  steam units  based on these  fuels  may  fall considerably  in some
provinces.
The U.S. Sector
           Electric utility generation  in the  U.S. by energy source is summarized for the
year 1979 in Table B.I.3. Roughly 50 percent of the electricity generated in 1979  was
supplied  by coal-fired units.  The remaining 50 percent was supplied by oil, natural  gas,
hydro and nuclear in roughly equal proportions.  Total U.S. electric generation in 1979 was
2 248 billion kilowatt-hours,  an increase of roughly 2 percent over the preceding year (1).

TABLE B.I.3    U.S.  ELECTRIC UTILITY GENERATION BY ENERGY SOURCE
                (1979)
Energy Source
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Geothermal and Other*
Total
Generation
(billion kilowatt-hours)
1 075
304
330
280
255
4
2 248
% of Total
Generation
47.8
13.5
14.7
12.5
11.3
0.2

Source: Reference 1.
*Includes production from plants that consume wood, refuse, and other vegetable fuels.

           Production of electricity by coal-fired units in the U.S. has been  steadily
increasing  since  1960*.  Coal use in the utility sector has more than doubled since
1964 (1).  The total amount of coal delivered to electric utility plants  in the  first  six
months of 1980 was 295.4 million tons (2).  Over 60 percent of this coal went to 11 states:
*With the exception of 1978, when coal use was roughly 1 percent less than in 1977.

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                                          22
Ohio (26.1),*, Texas (22.0), Pennsylvania (20.9), Illinois (19.1), Indiana (18.2), West Virginia
(15.4), Tennessee (13.2), Kentucky (12.0),  North Carolina  (11.2),  Michigan  (11.1),  and
Missouri (10.8) (2).  Through a combination  of policy initiatives instituted by the Federal
government, coal use in the U.S. utility sector is expected to increase substantially over
the next few years.

UTILITY GENERATION BY REGION

           U.S. utility  capacity and generating rate for fossil-fuel-fired power plants in
1978  is  summarized by  state  and region  in Table B.I.4.   The percentage change in
generating  rate  (1977  vs. 1978) and  percentage generation  by fuel is also shown in
Table B.I.4.  From this table it is evident that the greatest quantities of  coal used in the
utility sector are in the following regions (in decreasing order): east north central, south
Atlantic, east south central, west north Central, and middle  Atlantic states.  U.S. totals
listed  at the bottom of Table B.I.4 show  that coal constitutes  61.2 percent of total
electric  generation in fossil-fuel-fired  plants (3) (47.8 percent when nuclear, hydro,  and
geothermal are considered).
           Electric generation  by fossil-fuel plants is broken down by state and region in
Table B.I.4 for areas of the country close to the U.S./Canadian border.  From this it  can
be seen  that the greatest  amount  of  coal  use  occurs in the  following  states**:  Ohio
(103.2), Pennsylvania (83.2), Illinois (63.4), and Indiana (59.5) (3).   In each of these states,
coal accounted for  more than 80 percent of the electricity generated in 1978.
* Numbers in brackets are million tons delivered to utility plants in each state.
** The numbers in brackets are thousand megawatt-hours of coal-fired electric
  generation.

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TABLE B.1.4
                      23

SUMMARY OF CAPACITY AND GENERATION FOR FOSSIL-FUEL-
FIRED PLANTS BY STATE AND REGION, 1978 (3)
Fossil Generation

State/Region*
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Vermont
New England
Total
New Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
Mid-Atlantic
Total
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio
Wisconsin
East North
Central Total
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
N. Dakota
S. Dakota
West North
Central Total
South Atlantic
Total
East South
Central Total
West South
Central Total
Mountain
State Total
Pacific
State Total
United States
Total
Capacity
(MW)
3 506
717
6 437
1 052
2<42
30

11 984
5 967
17 613
23 013

46 593
21 059
15 043
13 982
23 858
6 251

80 193
4 299
5 903
4 682
10 982
1 541
1 636
546

29 589

72 478

38 002

69 515

21 618

23 445

393,417

(1000 MW-H)
11 537
930
30 095
3 840
551
14

46 967
21 093
62 206
97 767

181 066
71 696
61 407
58 709
105 021
22 204

319 037
14 812
22 938
19 424
43 520
5 911
8 814
2 838

118 257

302 322

156 694

272 627

100 001

94 955

1,591,930
(% Change
Year Ago)
+4.4
+29.3
+4.0
-4.6
-1.1
-72.5

+3.6
-3.7
-3.3
+1.8

-0.7
+2.5
-1.7
+5.8
-2.9
-3.8

0
+8.0
+ 18.0
-6.3
-2.3
+2.2
+6.4
+ 15.3

+2.9

+0.2

-1.5

+7.4

-5.1

-22.2

-0.7

Coal
0
0
0
50.5
0
64.3

4.1
26.2
22.3
85.1

56.7
88.4
96.9
80.6
98.3
96.7

92.4
96.2
54.1
97.0
95.1
78.9
99.7
97.8

87.2

67.6

89.9

13.8

82.0

6.5

61.2

Oil
100
100
99.6
49.5
100
21.4

95.6
73.5
77.6
14.9

43.2
9.5
2.7
17.6
1.6
2.0

6.6
0.5
9.2
2.9
1.3
7.8
0.3
2.1

3.3

27.7

7.5

9.5

4.5

62.6

21.0

Gas
0
0
0.4
0
0
14.3

0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2

0
2.1
0.4
1.8
0.1
1.3

1.0
3.4
36.6
0.1
3.6
13.4
0
0

9.5

4.7

2.5

76.7

13.5

30.8

17.9
^Regions closest to the U.S./Canadian border are broken out by state
Source: Reference 3.

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REFERENCES
1.    DOE's  Energy Information Administration, "Annual  Report to Congress,  1979",
     Volume Two, Report No. DOE/EIA-0173(79)/2.

2.    DOE's  Energy Information Administration, "Energy Data Report:  Coal Distribution,
     January-June 1980", Report No. DOE/EIA-0125(80/2Q), October 20, 1980.

3.    National  Coal Association, "Steam  Electric Plant Factors, 1979",  National Coal
     Association, 1130 Seventeenth St., Washington, D.C., 20036.

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                                        25
B.1.2      CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES

TECHNOLOGIES FOR CONTROLLING EMISSIONS FROM THERMAL GENERATING
STATIONS
           The emphasis in controlling  emissions from fossil-fuel-fired power plants is
shifting somewhat from local considerations to regional concerns regarding problems such
as acid rain, visibility, and respirable  particulates.   In view of this, a reassessment of
abatement methods is needed, aimed at determining which of  the  processes are  most
capable of accomplishing the degree of control needed from the regional viewpoint,  from
the standpoints of both control efficiency and cost effectiveness.
           In general, the optimum process for  controlling a given pollutant depends on
the degree of control required.  Processes that reduce emissions to an extreme degree are
quite expensive and are usually not implemented unless the high efficiency is considered
to be essential. On the other hand, techniques that cost less are not normally capable of a
high degree of control.
           The pollutants of concern are  sulphur oxides (SO- and SO,), nitrogen oxides
(NO and NO2> generally referred to as NO ), and solid material carried in the gas stream
(ash from  the fuel,  unburned carbon,  and other  non-gaseous particles—all generally
referred to as "particulate matter"). Most of these come from the fuel itself, by reaction
of sulphur and nitrogen compounds with oxygen supplied by the combustion air, and by
burning out the combustible compounds leaving the ash as small  solid  particles.  In
addition, some NO  is formed by reaction of nitrogen and oxygen in the combustion air.
                X
           The amounts of  such pollutants vary with  type of  fuel, design and size of
boiler, and capacity factor.  Typical data are given in Table B.I.5  for a 500 MW  unit.
Although the tonnages listed are  high, the concentrations in the flue gas are quite low
because of the very large flue gas volume, which is composed  mainly of carbon dioxide
and water vapor; the 500 MW  boiler  in Table B.I.5  would produce about 60 000 tons of
flue gas per day, at full power; at 60% capacity factor, this is equivalent to 13 million
tons of flue gas per year.
           The large amounts  of  pollutants evolved have led to regulations for reducing
emissions.  As might  be expected from Table B.I.5, the main emphasis in the past has
been on particulate matter, where coal is the fuel, because of the large amount involved;
devices to collect and remove particulates from the  gas stream  have been  required for a
long time.  Since 1971, sulphur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions have been regulated in
the U.S..  In Canada, recommendations  for emission  controls have been submitted to the
provinces.

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                                         26
TABLE B.1.5         TYPICAL UNCONTROLLED EMISSIONS OF POLLUTANTS3
Fuel
Natural gas
Oil (1.0% sulphur)
Coal
Low-sulphur (0.7%)
High-sulphur (4.0%)
a 500 MW boiler,
Pollutant (tons per year)
Sulphur oxides
-b
15000

15000
88000
60% load factor. Levels givei

Nitrogen oxides
4000
4800

8 200
8200
n are fairly typia

Particulates
-b
1 100

110 000
110 000
al; in practice they
     vary over a wide range. Coal burned, about 1.1 million tons/year.
b    Natural gas normally contains very little sulphur or ash.

Emphasis on nitrogen oxide control is just beginning, mainly in congested areas such as in
Japan and southern California in the United States.
           Sulphur oxides and particulates are removed from  the gas stream by a variety
of devices. (Sulphur oxide emissions can  also be reduced by using low-sulphur fuel.)  For
nitrogen oxides, the general practice has  been to reduce emissions by altering combustion
conditions  in  the boiler in  such a  way as to reduce NO   formation.  Since this is only
partially effective, there has been  some use in Japan of  devices to remove NO  from the
gas.
Emission Rates
           In this sector, emission  rates are routinely stated in terms relating to the heat
input to the  boilers.   The  range  of emissions  for the  three pollutants  varies widely,
depending on the fuel characteristics and  the boiler design.
S02                          Canada                         0    - 13  lb/106 Btu
                              U.S.                            0    -  8  lb/106 Btu
NOV                          Canada/U.S.                    0.5  - 1.0 lb/106 Btu
                                                                             6
Particulates*                  Canada/U.S.                    0.03 - 3.0 lb/10  Btu
*As presently controlled.

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                                          27
Sulphur Dioxide controls can be broadly classified as follows:
      Physical Coal Cleaning
      Flue Gas Desulphurization
      Low-Sulphur Fuel
      Fuel Desulphurization -  Oil
                           -  Coal
Nitrogen Oxides controls can be classified as:
      Burner Modification
      Boiler Design and Operation
      Flue Gas Treatment
Particulate control is achieved as follows:
      Cyclonic cleaning
      Electrostatic Precipitator
      Baghouse
Definitions
"In use" technologies are those that have been demonstrated on a commercial scale and
for which orders have subsequently been  placed.  "Available"  technologies are those that
have  been demonstrated  but not yet  installed or ordered  to any significant  extent.
"Emerging" technologies are those in the  research and development stages that have been
developed to the pilot-scale level.
A)         Sulphur Dioxide Control
           In the  past, the main approach to sulphur oxide control in  countries  such as
Japan and the U.S. has been the use of naturally occurring low-sulphur  fuel.  This is still
the practice  in Japan, but in the U.S. the recently enacted federal regulations now require
a reduction in uncontrolled emissions for all new boilers burning oil or coal — and pressure
is growing to require such reduction for existing units.  Several approaches can be used to
attain the reduction, including fuel  blending, fuel desulphurization, coal cleaning, coal
conversion, desulphurization during combustion, and flue gas desulphurization (FGD).
a)          Physical Coal Cleaning
           For coal, part of the sulphur can be removed at relatively low cost by physical
methods, that is, the coal is  subjected to  a treatment based on gravity differences to

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                                         28
separate the crushed material. Since the heavier fractions contain much of the sulphur,
some 10-30% of the sulphur can  be removed fairly easily depending on the  sulphur
characteristics, among other things.  A variety of methods  are used, including washing,
shaking and mineral concentration methods.
          If more than 10-30% removal of the  sulphur  is required, physical cleaning
becomes expensive.   It  can be  combined with  other  methods  to advantage  if an
intermediate degree of removal is acceptable and if the original pyrite sulphur content is
extremely high.  For 90% and higher removal of sulphur in the fuel,  (10% or less  left in
the coal), as now required in the U.S. for new  plants,  other methods are more  cost
effective.
          Cost:   Physical  coal  cleaning is probably the most cost-effective method
available for reducing SO2 emissions if a high degree of reduction is not required.  A  TVA
study shows a cost of $0.22 per  Ib of sulphur removed for  cleaning and $0.237 per Ib for
limestone scrubbing  (2000 MW, 3.5% S  coal, 29-32% removal  by cleaning, and 85% by
FGD).  Within the limits of accuracy of  the  estimates, the  costs are thus about the same.
There are certain more or  less intangible  benefits to cleaning, however,  that are  not
counted in this comparison,  and  that should make cleaning the clear choice if 10-30%
removal is acceptable.
          For lower-sulphur coals, the cost of cleaning increases rapidly  with decrease in
coal sulphur content. For example, at 0.7%  sulphur, the cost  per Ib  of sulphur removed is
$1.88, as compared to $0.89 for FGD.
b)        Chemical Desulphurization of Coal
          A large amount  of experimental effort has been expended  on methods for
desulphurizing coal by chemical  means.  The process  types vary widely, from simple
leaching by  chemical  solutions to  methods  that  involve dissolution of the coal  and
reconstitution of the solids.   The last  of these, generally called Solvent Refined Coal
(SRC), borders on a coal conversion process  and is usually classed as such.  However, it is
also a process for cleaning the coal of ash  and sulphur  and producing a  clean solid fuel
with characteristics much like the original coal but with much reduced polluting potential.
          Although much development  work on chemical  coal cleaning  (CCC) has been
carried  out,  there is  as yet no commercial use.  SRC, sometimes called a synthetic fuel, is
probably the closest to commercializaton.  One module of  a  commercial-size plant is to
be funded by the U.S. DOE, with final designs due by mid-1980 and start-up planned for

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                                        29
The developers plan to  expand the facility to commercial size and have it operating by
1990; the capacity will be 30 000 tons per day (five 6 000 tpd modules).
           All  the  other  CCC methods are  only  at the bench or  pilot-plant scale of
development.
           Process  Evaluation; Chemical coal cleaning has the same problem as physical
cleaning—difficulty in getting a high  degree  of removal without incurring high cost.
Although most of the chemical cleaning methods will do better than physical cleaning
processes  in  removing both pyritic and organic sulphur, especially the latter, overall
removal is  usually considered  to be in the range of 60 to 75%. SRC does better than the
others because the hydrogenation promotes sulphur removal; the  process  probably  can
make 85%  removal  at a cost competitive with wet scrubbing, but 90% or higher removal
of sulphur is a difficult objective.
           Cost;  Because of  the chemical steps involved, chemical coal cleaning costs
considerably more than  physical cleaning methods.  The  cost per Ib of  sulphur removed
ranges from $0.253  to $0.44.  In contrast, the estimated cost for FGD, which was assumed
to remove 85% of the SCU as compared to 59 to 73% for the CCC processes, is estimated
at $0.237 per Ib of sulphur.
           Various cost  estimates have been published for SRC.  EPRI estimates indicate
a cost of about $4.50 per million Btu for SRC,  which corresponds to about $113 per ton of
Eastern coal (at 12 500 Btu/lb).  This is considerably higher than the levels estimated for
use of raw  coal plus scrubbing, which are $25  to $30 per ton for  the  coal and $10 to  $15
per ton for the scrubbing. However, SRC has several advantages such as low ash content
that give other savings, thus making the cost comparison quite complicated. At the best,
the process does  not  seem likely to be competitive with  flue gas  scrubbing at 90%  and
higher removal requirement.
           Reliability;  It should be noted that the cost comparison between CCC  and
FGD is affected in  a  major way by how  the reliability problem is handled.  CCC can be
considered  completely reliable to the  power  plant  operator  on  the  basis that the CCC
plant  will  maintain  a  stockpile of product to assure an uninterrupted supply.   For FGD,
however, full  reliability cannot be assumed and in fact has  not been attained in most
operating systems.  The same  criticism applies of course to all other components of  the
power train, from fuel input to the generator output.

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                                         30

c)         Desulphurization of Oil
           Oil  desulphurization  is  a well-developed  technology,  used widely in  several
countries.  The method has been  used extensively in Japan to reduce SC>2 emissions.
           The residual sulphur in the treated oil is usually in the order of 0.2 to 0.5% but
a higher degree of desulphurization is feasible.  The situation is similar to coal cleaning in
that the cost  increases with the  degree of desulphurizaton.   Japanese data show an
increase  from  $16/kL to $27/kL when  increasing from 70%  to 97% sulphur removal,
compared  to  an equivalent increase  from  $16 to  $19 for  a similar  improvement in
efficiency for flue gas desulphurization.
d)         Flue Gas Desulphurization — Dry Processes
           One of the newer developments is injection of a lime slurry into a spray drier
concurrently with the flue gas.  The lime reacts with the SO- to form a dry, solid product
that is collected downstream in an electrostatic  precipitator or fabric  filter (usually
called a baghouse). The main advantages are relative simplicity of equipment, production
of a dry waste material rather than a wet sludge, lower energy requirement, and possibly
lower maintenance and better   reliability.   The  drawbacks  are need for  lime (more
expensive that limestone) and difficulty  in getting a  high degree of removal.  The latter
effectively limits the  process to  low-sulphur coal.
           Only pilot plant data are  available but  enthusiasm  for the process  has led
utilities to contract for several  installations in the U.S.  There is some indication from
bidding situations that the process does not have as much cost advantage as expected.
           Cost;  Published cost estimates indicate a  lower cost for the  spray  drier
process, in the order of 15% or so. Basin Electric, for example, estimated the capital cost
at Antelope  Valley to be $129/kW (including particulate removal)  for a  dry system as
compared to $145/kW for  wet scrubbing (limestone). At Laramie  River, the estimates
were $100/kW and $121/kW, respectively.  The capital costs of dry processes at this time
are uncertain. Because of the relative simplicity there may be some cost advantage.
           Operating  cost  depends mainly on  what is assumed for operating labor and
maintenance plus the  amount of  lime required and the price margin over limestone.  TVA
estimates show lower  direct costs (including absorbent) for wet scrubbing but when items
such as overhead and  capital charges (which depend on capital cost) are added, the annual
revenue required may  be less for dry processes than  for wet systems.

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                                         31

e)         Flue Gas Desulphurization — Wet Scrubbing
           Scrubbing the flue  gas with a limestone slurry has become the  basic FGD
process.  It has been available commercially for over 10 years,  limestone is the least
expensive sulphur absorbent available, and no competitive process has been demonstrated
to be  more  cost  effective.   The main  drawbacks  have been  corrosion/erosion in  the
scrubbers,  unreliability of the  very large slurry circulation pumps, and production of  a
wet, difficult-to-handle sludge. Moreover, there has been  in the past some trouble with
system availability, particularly with high-sulphur coal.
           Progress has been made in  all these areas but the problems in some plants are
still  not completely resolved.  Small amounts of promoters such as magnesium or adipic
acid are sometimes added to the reagent; tests  have shown these to be often effective in
raising SO* removal efficiency. Spare equipment is being generally installed as a means
of ensuring reliability.
           There is a wide range in capital costs owing to site-specific considerations,
and to variation in the bids from different vendors.  Lime has some operating advantages
over limestone and is sometimes used.
           Lime-limestone scrubbing is widely  used in all  areas — Japan, the U.S.,  and
West Germany — where SO- emission reduction is required.  In the U.S.,  the  capacity
currently operating  on utility  boilers  is over  19 000 MW and 53 000 MW more  is under
construction or planned.  It is  estimated that nearly 160 000 MW will be in  operation by
1990.
           One of the scrubbing process variations is the so-called "double alkali" process.
The  advantages of the process are very  high  removal  efficiency and  better  scrubber
operation because of the clear solution, avoiding scaling of the scrubber internals.
           Sludge Disposal
           Lime-limestone scrubbing produces waste  solids  (mainly calcium sulphite) with
very undesirable properties —  difficult to dewater and incapable of  supporting much
weight  when   placed  in  the  waste   disposal  area.    Moreover,  potential leaching of
constituents is regarded by environmental agencies as a serious problem.
           Dewatering and strength can be improved to a considerable extent by forced
oxidation —  bubbling air through the scrubber  slurry to oxidize calcium  sulphite to
calcium sulphate (gypsum), a material  that precipitates as large crystals easier to dewater
and  stronger  when placed in a waste pond or  landfill.   There is  a current trend to
specifying  forced oxidation when purchasing scrubber systems.

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                                         32
           The leaching problem is vague and  ill-defined.  Calcium sulphite and sulphate
are relatively innocuous but regulatory authorities express concern about the leaching of
metal  compounds (selenium,  arsenic, mercury,  and others) from  the residual  fly  ash
collected in the scrubber and present in the sludge.
f)         Flue Gas Desulphurization — Recovery Processes
           Recovery of the SO2 in power plant flue  gases as a useful material has been a
research goal for several  decades.  Numerous companies have seen this as  a promising
business venture  and have expended  large sums" in  development.  Various agencies  and
institutes have also  taken  part, including TVA, EPA, DOE, and EPRI in the U.S., Bergbau
Forschung in Germany, and various groups in Japan.
           The results of all this  work have not been very promising. In Japan there are
only four installations on utility boilers, totalling a  little over 500 MW.  There are  also
about 25 units on industrial boilers and  other industrial operations with a total gas  flow
equivalent to about 2 500 MW.  In the U.S., two utilities have installed recovery processes
on a commercial basis; the total capacity is about 2 500 MW.
           Process Description; There are dozens of recovery processes, in various stages
of development.   Only the more significant ones will be summarized.
     Wellman-Lord.  The gas is scrubbed with sodium sulphite solution and the resulting
     sodium sulphite-bisulphite heated to evolve  a rich stream of SO2, convertible either
     to sulphuric acid or elemental sulphur.  The process is used by New Mexico Public
     Service and NIPSCO in the U.S., and by Chubu Electric in Japan.
     Magnesia scrubbing (Chemico, United Engineers).  The gas is scrubbed with MgO
     slurry  to form Mg(HSO3)2 which is then  treated  with MgO to precipitate  MgSOy
     The sulphite  is  dried, calcined to evolve a  rich stream of SO2,  and the  SO2
     converted to sulphuric acid.  Philadelphia Electric is  installing the process at two
     stations and TVA plans an installation at the Johnsonville station.
     Rockwell.   Sodium sulphite produced  in a spray drying process is reduced to sodium
     sulphide in a furnace and the resulting melt treated with water and carbon  dioxide
     to evolve a rich stream of H2S, convertible to sulphur by the Glaus  process.  The
     method has  the advantage that coal can be  used as the reducing agent whereas  the
     other methods  require either natural gas or expensive activated carbon.  The  process
     is being tested  in a 100 MW facility at Niagara Mohawk's Huntley station.

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                                        33
           Cost;   A major  drawback  to recovery processes is relatively high cost.
Complicated process flowsheets,  absorbent  losses, and  high  energy requirements all
contribute to a high cost level.
           One of the items contributing to high cost  is the energy requirement.  The
following levels have been reported.
Process
Wellman-Lord (sulphur as product)
Magnesia scrubbing
Limestone scrubbing
                                 Energy requirement, % of boiler
                                 energy input with no control
                                 12-25
                                 5-10
                                 1.5-3
g)
Coal Gasification (Combined Cycle)
           Another approach is production of low Btu gas by coal gasification, removing
ash and sulphur, and burning the clean gas in a combined-cycle operation (use of a gas
turbine and boiler in series to improve energy utilization).  In this case, the increase in
energy  efficiency is the major  objective in addition to  desuiphurization,  and  thereby
complicates estimation of the  sulphur removal  cost.   Most  estimates show  a cost
reduction of 15% or so by the combined cycle route (based on cost per kW-h),  compared to
a conventional boiler with  FGD,  but commercialization is probably 15 to 20  years away.
Moreover, the cost of new processes tends to go up as development work progresses.
h)         Fluidized-Bed Combustion
           The  most  promising  method  in  emerging  technology  is fluidized-bed
combustion.  In the fluid-bed process, air  blown up through  a bed  of  fine coal  and
limestone  burns  the  coal  in  a  suspended  state  and produces steam in  water tubes
submerged in the bed.  The limestone absorbs  the SOj.   Capital cost for SO2 removal
should be low because no separate reactor is needed. The main drawback is  difficulty in
reaching a high level of SO2 removal without using an inordinate amount of limestone and
hence much increased waste production. To get 90% removal, some two to four times as
much limestone is required compared to limestone wet scrubbing.
           Estimation of sulphur control cost for fluidized-bed combustion is  complicated
by the fact that reduced boiler cost is an objective as well as sulphur removal. Proponent
estimates generally show a saving of 10 to 15% per kW-h as compared to a conventional
power plant equipped with wet scrubbing; others show the two about even.  Commercializ-
ation for use in power plants is probably 10 to 20 years away.

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                                         34

           Cost Factors;  Like coal gasification, most cost estimates for FBC show some
10 to 15% lower cost as compared to a conventional system fitted with FGD.  Most such
estimates have been published by proponents; in more recent cost comparisons by TVA, it
was  concluded that  although FBC  (atmospheric  and  pressurized  operation)  shows a
potential saving of  9 to  14% "when uncertainties are included,  the  estimated cost of
electricity for the three alternatives is so close that all are considered to be within the
competitive range for further consideration."
           It should  be noted  that the  FBC approach  was  favored by some of  the
assumptions in the TVA study,  mainly the higher energy  efficiency  for FBC and  the
relatively high energy penalties  assigned  to  conventional systems  plus FGD.     For
example, it was assumed that atmospheric FBC has an energy efficiency of 35.8% as
compared to 31.8% for conventional boilers.  In contrast, a British study shows 36.6% for
FBC and 37.1% for conventional  boilers.  The comparative  cost of FBC and conventional
operation cannot be calculated accurately at the present time.
           Process Choice;  The recommendations in the  following table are made for
process choice at different required levels of emission reduction.  It should be noted that
these are only approximate and  that  site-specific  conditions could  well  change  the
ranking.   The rankings are judgmental in nature, based on a  subjective evaluation of
factors such as cost, commercial viability, control efficiency, and process reliability.
Removal efficiency level, %                   Process listing
Higher than 90%                              1. Double alkali
                                             2. Limestone scrubbing
                                               with promoters
                                             3. Coal gasification (combined cycle)a
                                             4. Recovery processes
90%                                         1. Limestone scrubbing
                                               with promoters
                                             2. Limestone scrubbing
                                             3. Double alkali
50-90% (high-sulphur coal)                     1. Limestone scrubbing, (with
                                               physical coal cleaning where
                                               upper  limit on SC>2 emissions
                                               applies)

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                                          35
                                              2.  Fluidized bed
                                                combustion3
                                              3.  Chemical coal
                                                cleaning
                                              4.  Low-sulphur  fuel substitution
                                                (not a sulphur removal process)
                                              5.  Limestone injection through
                                                modified burner'3
 50-90% (low-sulphur coal)                     1.  Spray drier process
                                              2.  Limestone scrubbing
 Below 50%                                   1. Physical coal cleaning (highly
                                                variable effectiveness due to
                                                coal properties)
                                              2.  Blending with low-sulphur coal
 aWhen and if developed.
  Ranking due to current status of development.

B)          Nitrogen Oxide (Ncy Control
            The  alternatives  for nitrogen oxide control are boiler operation  changes,
 combustion equipment modifications  to  reduce  NO   formation, and flue gas treatment
                                                 A
 (FGT) to remove it from  the gas. Boiler operation changes introduce hazards especially
 with  coal,  and  are not  popular.   Combustion equipment  modification  is  much less
 expensive than  FGT, and is  used both in the U.S.  and  Japan.  In  situations where the
 regulations  have become so stringent that combustion  modification is not  capable  of
 achieving the required emission reduction, flue  gas  treatment is employed.  It  has been
 used on full-scale Japanese oil-fired units, and is being evaluated at pilot scale on U.S.
 coal-fired boilers.
 a)         Combustion Modifications; In the U.S. and Canada, combustion modification
 (CM) is the most common  method of NO  reduction.  NO  can be reduced by injecting the
                                      X              X
 combustion air in two stages, normally by reducing air flow to the burner and injecting the
 remainder through "overfire" air ports in the side of  the boiler.  "Low-NO " burners that
 accomplish staged conditions within the burner flame have also been developed.
            Staged combustion is the most cost effective of the methods but normally only
 reduces emission by 15-25%.  Gas recirculation is more expensive  but is quite effective
 for gas or oil, giving an emission reduction up to 50%. Low-NO  burners are effective and
                                                           s\
 are often used in Japan in combination with the standard type of staged combustion and
 with gas recirculation.  Combustion  modification has given  very  low NO  emissions in

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                                         36
Japanese  tests, 100 ppm  with coal and 50 ppm with oil  ~  a reduction  of 75 to 80%
compared to  uncontrolled emissions.   However,  an advanced degree of  combustion
modification can cause slagging in the boiler and corrosion of heat transfer surfaces.
           Typical emission limits  achievable using combustion modification techniques
and their associated capital costs are:
                Low Excess Air       0.9 Ib NOX/106 Btu         $0.
                Staged Combustion   0.7  "                     $2-3/kW
                Low-NOv Burner     0.4-0.5"                   $2-10/kW
                       A
           Emissions are  based  on  coal-fired  units  emitting   1.0 lb/106 Btu  when
uncontrolled.
           Since NOX emissions are complex functions of boiler design and operation, and
also  fuel characteristics,  emissions vary widely, (e.g., for wall-fired units,  the range is
generally  0.7  to  1.3 Ib NOX  per million Btu input).  This wide range of  uncontrolled
emissions leads to uncertainty on controlled emission rates when combustion modification
is employed.
           The capital  costs  are dependent in part on site-specific variables, and the
accuracy of the costs quoted is not better than -10% to +30%.
b)          Flue Gas Treatment;  The leading method is  injection of gaseous ammonia to
reduce NO   to harmless nitrogen.  Operation without a catalyst  requires very  high
temperature and removal  is limited to about 35  - 40%.  With a catalyst, 90% or higher is
feasible but 80% gives much less operating difficulty and  may be the  upper practicable
limit for high-sulphur coal.
c)          Process Choice;  The situation is similar to that for other pollutants — process
choice depends on the degree of control required.
     removal efficiency level,  %              Process ranking
                                            ^" •• •""•• ™^
90% or higher                                1.  Catalytic  reduction*  with more  than
                                                the  normal amount of  catalyst,  pre-
                                                ceded by combustion modifications
50-80%                                        1.    Catalytic  reduction  with a normal
                                                   amount of catalyst
                                              2.    Combustion   modification    (all
                                                   types)  followed by non-catalytic
                                                   reduction  (ammonia injection with-
                                                   out catalyst)
* This technology has not been proven on coal-fired boilers.

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                                          37
                                              3.    Combustion modification alone (for
                                                    low part of range so as to minimize
                                                    boiler problems)
                                              4.    Low-NOx burners'3
Below 30%                                    1.    Staged combustion3
                                                       _             *s
                                              2.    Low-NO. burners
                                              3.    Gas   recirculation   (except   for
                                                    coal)a
 Used in combination with others if necessary to achieve the required reduction level.
 Under development.
C)         Paniculate Matter Control
a)         Precipitation and Filtration;  Electrostatic precipitation is the basic method in
the power generation industry for removing particulates originating  as ash  in the fuel.
However, there is a trend toward using fabric filters (baghouses) in the U.S. as a means of
attaining the very stringent emission standard adopted  recently for new boilers.
b)         Wet Scrubbing;   The limited ability of wet scrubbers to remove very fine
particulates makes their  use questionable to meet the new regulations in the  U.S., an
unfortunate situation because scrubbers can remove the bulk of the coarse particulates at
very low cost.  In a new development, a wet precipitator after  the scrubber removes the
fine particulates.
c)         Process Choice;  For the current new source performance standards in the U.S.
(0.03 lb/10  Btu), baghouses are probably superior  for low-sulphur coal because the ash
does not  precipitate easily.   For high-sulphur  fuel,  the  situation is not clear;  more
experience with baghouses is needed.  For a standard such as 0.1 lb/106 Btu, precipitators
are more cost effective.
B.I.2.1          Technologies in Use
SO2 Reduction
a)   Physical coal cleaning
b)   Blending with low-sulphur fuel

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                                         38
c)    Oil desulphurization
d)    Flue gas desulphurization
NOX Reduction
a)    Flue gas recirculation (FGR) (gas-fired units)
b)    Low excess air
c)    Staged combustion
B.I.2.2          Available Technologies (see definition in B.I.2)
SO2 Reduction
a)    Magnesium oxide scrubbing remains to be demonstrated on a full-scale power station
      with an acceptable degree of reliability. Anticipated costs are likely to be higher
      than limestone, though experience is extremely limited.
b)    Lime/limestone scrubbing with chemical promoters, e.g.,  adipic acid.
Nitrogen Oxide Reduction
a)    Low-NO  burners
b)    Flue gas treatment (FGT)
Performance of NOX Reduction Techniques
           FGR is used now for superheat control and has some beneficial effects on NO
                                                                                   ]\
reduction.  Generally, it is evidently not a favored technique. Its costs are indeterminate.
Low excess  air may be applicable and costs nothing, but operators may resist it because of
safety problems with  pulverized  coal. Staged combustion is available  but possibly may
cause corrosion problems.
           Low-NO  burners are available  at $l-10/kW, depending on size  and ease of
replacement of existing burners.
B.I.2.3          Emerging Technologies
SO2 Reduction
a)    Fluidized-bed combustion
b)    Fuel gasification
c)    Gasification with combined cycle operation
d)    Pressurized fluidized-bed combustion
e)    Coal liquefaction, direct (SRCI and SRCII) and indirect (e.g., SASOL)
f)    Limestone injection with multi-stage burner, (LIMB process)

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                                        39

NOX Reduction
a)   Ammonia injection
b)   Advanced low-NO  burners
          Second generation  low-NO   coal  burners, projected  to  be  capable  of
emission of 0.2-0.3 Ib per million Btu, will  soon begin commercial demonstration.  It is
projected  that these advanced lowrNO  burners may be commercially available in the
1983-85 period.
          Flue  gas treatment processes have been evaluated at pilot scale for  coal
applications in Japan and the U.S. The results of the  pilot-scale testing have shown that
the long-term NO  removal may be affected by the nature of the fly ash. More effort to
                yv
evaluate the impact of coal and fly ash  type on the performance of flue gas treatment
processes is needed.

B.1.3      ALTERNATIVE PRODUCTION PROCESSES
1.   Hydro
2.   Nuclear
3.   Magnetohydrodynamics
4.   Tidal Power
5.   Solar Power
6.   Wind
          The last four in this group are not thought likely to make any significant
contribution to commercial electric power production capacity in the next twenty years,
except in special circumstances for very limited markets.

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B.2        NON-FERROUS SMELTERS

B.2.1      Description of the Non-Ferrous Smelting Sector
Canada
           The large smelter sources of 862 in Canada are estimated to emit about 2.7
million  tonnes  per year when  operating at  full capacity.   In  1980,  the emissions  are
estimated to be only 2 million tonnes largely because of below capacity operations related
to depressed metal markets.  A brief presentation of smelter statistics is  given in Tables
B.2.1 and  B.2.2.    Two zinc smelters (CEZ  at Valleyfield,  Quebec  and Texas  Gulf at
Timmins, Ontario) and a lead smelter (Brunswick Mining and Smelting at Belledune, N.B.)
already control 85 to 90% of their sulphur input, and as a  result  are not considered major
emissions sources of SO2 for the purpose of this study.
United States
           In the United States, two distinct situations exist regarding sulphur emissions
from non-ferrous metals production.  There are  16 copper smelters, 6 lead  smelters, and 8
zinc smelters (some  of which  have recently closed  or are  expected to  close).   In  the
eastern U.S., there are four primary zinc smelters  and  two primary copper smelters.
These smelters have low SO- emissions because of the nature of the production processes
and  controls employed and are not included  as major emission  sources of SO-   for  the
purpose of  this study.  The major non-ferrous smelting capacity  is located in the western
U.S. with the largest concentration in the Arizona-New Mexico area (see Figure B.2.1  and
Table B.2.3).  It is not known whether these sources contribute to the eastern acid rain
problem.
B.2.2      Control Technology
Introduction
           Non-ferrous smelters are, in principle, amenable to SO- emission control using
technologies that are available.  Acid plants and liquid  SO- production  are considered
proven and, in most cases, affordable control approaches for strong SO- off-gas streams.
The  major issue here involves the availability of affordable technology for control of weak
stream SO- emissions. There are three approaches to solving the weak SO- problem:
           flue gas scrubbing

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TABLE B.2.1
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF NON-FERROUS SMELTER SECTOR - PRESENT
CONDITIONS
Smelter
Location
Processed Used
Capacity
SO- Emission Rates
Hudson Bay Mining
and Smelting Co.
Limited
INCO Limited
INCO Limited
Falconbridge Nickel
Mines Limited
Noranda Mines
Limited, Home
Division
Noranda Mines
Limited, Gaspe
Division
Flin Flon,
Manitoba
Thompson,
Manitoba
Copper Cliff,
Ontario
Sudbury,
Ontario
Noranda,
Quebec
Murdochville,
Quebec
Cu-roasting (multiple hearth
roasters), reverberatory
furnace smelting, converting,
anode casting

Zn-roasting (multiple-hearth
roasters), electrowinning

Ni-roasting (fluid-bed roast-
ers), electric furnace smelt-
ing, converting, refining

Ni-roasting (multiple-hearth
roasters), reverberatory
furnace smelting, converting,
refining

Cu-flash smelting, convert-
ing, refining
Iron Ore Processing-pyrrhotite
roasting (fluid-bed roast-
ers), leaching, sintering

Ni/Cu-roasting (fluid-bed
roasters) electric furnace
smelting, converting

Cu-green charged reverbera-
tory furnace smelting, con-
verting - Noranda continuous
smelting furnace - anode Cu
shipped to CCR, Montreal

Cu-roasting (fluid bed-roast-
ers), reverberatory furnace
smelting, converting, anode
furnace
ISO tonnes blister
Cu per day
230 tonnes refined
Zn per day

130 tonnes refined
Ni per day
430 tonnes Ni per
day in various
forms
                                                                   400 tonnes per day
                                                                   refined copper
2200 tonnes per
day iron ore, 20
tonnes per day Ni

130 tonnes per day
Ni, 70 tonnes per
day Cu

540 tonnes per day
Cu
230 tonnes anode
Cu per day
Current Manitoba
control order 800
tonnes per day average
monthly mean
Current Manitoba
control order 1130
tonnes per day
Current legislation
limits emission to
2270 tonnes per day

230 tonnes per day
under current
legislation

420 tonnes per day
under current
control order

1570 tonnes per
day
230 tonnes per day

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TABLE B.2.2    GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF NON-FERROUS SMELTER CONTAINMENT - SO-
Smelter
Hudson Bay Mining
and Smelting Co.
Limited
INCO Limited
INCO Limited
Location
Flin Flon,
Manitoba
Thompson,
Manitoba
Copper Cliff,
Ontario
Sulphur Containment Process
None installed
None installed
Liquid sulphur dioxide produced from
copper flash furnace in copper-nickel
smelter
SO2 Containment %
Nil
Nil
365 tonnes per day 1 1
INCO Limited
Falconbridge Nickel
Mines Limited

Noranda Mines Limited,
Home Division

Noranda Mines Limited,
Gaspe Division
Copper Cliff,
Ontario
Sudbury,
Ontario

Noranda
Quebec

Murdochville
Quebec
Sulphuric acid produced in contact
acid plants from the iron ore
recovery plant

Sulphurc acid produced in contact
acid plant from fluid-bed roasters

None installed
Sulphuric acid produced in contact
acid plant from fluid-bed roasters
1600 tonnes per day    85



525 tonnes per day     65


Nil


330 tonnes per day     60
1 Percent SO- contained (sulphur contained to total sulphur input)

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                            I          i
                               WIOMIHC    I
                      •T--J          i
                                                       i.-r:^
                   \J        !          !	1         i
                    \        ;          !  *  i   OUAH:--^___^:
                  -<._.  
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TABLE B.2.3
PRIMARY COPPER SMELTERS, 1979 (United States)
Company
                Location
Annual capacity3 (tonnes)
The Anaconda Company
ASARCO, Incorporated
Cities Service Company
Inspiration Consolidated
Copper Company
Kennecott Copper Corporation
Magma Copper Company
Phelps Dodge Corporation
Copper Range Company
TOTAL
                Anaconda, Montana
                El Paso, Texas
                Hayden, Arizona
                Tacoma, Washington
                Copperhill, Tennessee
                Miami, Arizona

                Garfield, Utah
                Hayden, Arizona
                Hurley, New Mexico
                McGill, Nevada
                San Manuel, Arizona
                Ajo, Arizona
                Douglas, Arizona
                Hidalgo, New Mexico
                Morenci, Arizona
                White Pine, Michigan
       180 000
       10* 000
       163 000
        91 000
        20 000
       136 000

       25k 000
        73 000
        73 000
        45 000
       181 000
        64 000
       115 000
       127 000
       161 000
        82 000

     1 869 000
a    Production of "blister" copper (99 percent Cu)
b    Operations at this plant and the associated refinery at Great Falls, Montana were
     discontinued in December, 1980

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           upgrading roaster and reverberatory furnace operations to produce a strong
           SO2 gas stream for acid plant control
           alternative process technology  which results in strong SO~  §as  streams for
           acid plant control or elimination of SOj formation.
           In  considering any approach,  it is of paramount  importance to consider the
unique nature  of each smelter. This uniqueness factor is determined by the nature of the
ore concentrates and the metallurgy required to successfully treat these  concentrates. It
is these aspects that govern the  selection of a metallurgical process for metal winning,
and, in turn,  the degree of sulphur containment.  Each  smelter requires an individual
technical and economic assessment of feasibility.
           In  the selection  of the production and control processes the following factors
must be considered and evaluated:
a)    amenability to SO- control
b)    applicability of the production process to the concentrates to be treated (continuous
     smelting not applicable to concentrates with high lead or arsenic contents)
c)    energy consumption, including the types and qualities of  the energy used
d)    capital and operating costs
e)    amenability to improved industrial hygiene conditions
f)    flexibility to changing conditions such as fluctuating levels of production, changes in
     composition of concentrates, etc.
g)    creation and controllability of environmental problems whether air pollution, water
     pollution or solid waste disposal
h)    recovery of primary metals  and by-products
           The control process for SO- emissions must be evaluated against  the factors
listed above, and must also include costs for pollution by-products disposal, whether as a
marketable or throwaway by-product.

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                                         46
B.2.2.1     Control Techology In Use
           The most common control method  in use is conversion of SO- to marketable
sulphuric acid.  The cost of fixing sulphur in this way is shown in Table B.2.4.
           The fixing of  sulphur as  marketable liquid sulphur dioxide is also  practised.
The cost is shown in  Table B.2.5.
           Both  processes  require  a  continuously-flowing  gas of  at  least  4% SC^.
Therefore they are not normally applicable to gases from reverberatory furnaces or multi-
hearth roasters.  Gases from Fierce-Smith converters can be treated in this  way provided
that they can be scheduled to produce a fairly continuous stream or that a relatively large
continuous higher concentration stream  is available for mixing with the converter gases.
Tight-fitting, water-cooled hoods would also have to be provided for the converter off-
gases.
           The cost  of retrofitting  smelter strong gas streams with an acid plant would be
similar to that  for new smelters except for the changes to existing  metallurgical process
equipment (e.g., revision to converter hoods as mentioned above).
Uncertainty of data base
           The non-ferrous  smelter capacities and the maximum SO2 emission rates  are
based on validated data and  the uncertainty factor would be  about + 5%.   The costs of
control  technologies do vary  from  smelter to  smelter depending on location of smelter
(i.e.,  geographical remoteness), smelter configuration, age  of smelter,  availability  and
cost of  services and materials such as electrical power, fuel, chemicals, etc.   Thus  the
uncertainty of the capital and operating costs  is greater and  is estimated  at  + 20%  for
capital costs and + 15% for operating costs.
           Factors such as varying  interest rates, monetary exchange rates  and non-
technical constraints will further increase the cost uncertainties.
(i)    Problems including waste disposal and energy aspects
           A key problem that has to be  addressed in any control action with regard to an
existing non-ferrous  smelter, and in some cases a new  smelter, is the compatibility of  the
actual mineral  concentrate  to be smelted with the choice of smelting process and  the
control  technology.    The ideal, which  can sometimes be achieved,  is  a completely
contained or continuous smelting  process which produces  a reasonably steady flow of
concentrated SC^. The use of this  ideal is currently limited to a few special cases where
the level of trace elements (such as lead and arsenic) does not require a batch  converter
processing stage.

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TABLE B.2.4
                       47

COST OF FIXING SULPHUR AS SULPHURIC ACID FROM SMELTER GASES
USING SINGLE CATALYSIS ACID PLANT (EPS 3-AP-79-8)
                ($ CAN. June, 1979)
Basis for Estimates
Production: t/day 100% HjSO^
Gases:
Continuous smelter gas, i.e., from
roaster, flash furnace, % SO2
Variable gas, i.e., from converters,
%so2
CAPITAL COST ($, June 1979 cost level)
Single catalysis sulphuric acid plant
Contingency @ 25%
Auxiliary equipment and services
Total Capital Cost
PRODUCTION COST ($/t HjSO^)
Operating Cost:
Supervision
Operating labour
Utilities 3
Operating supplies
Maintenance^
Indirect cost
Subtotal
Contingency (§10%
Total operating cost
Capital Charges:
Amortization and Interest (§ 15 years
and 10%/yr
Total Production Cost
Continuous
Gas only
530

12
-
11 880 000
2 970 000
1 485 000
16 335 000


0.54
1.06
1.61
0.28
2.89
0.71
7.09
0.71
7.80

11.51
19.31
Variable
Gas only
530

_
5-8
19 499 000
4 875 000
2 437 000
26 811 000


0.54
1.06
2.86
0.28
4.74
0.71
10.19
1.02
11.21

18.88
30.09
Continuous Gas Base Load
with Variable Gases
530

12
5-8
14 799 000
3 700 000
1 850 000
20 349 000


0.54
1.06
2.01
0.28
3.59
0.71
8.19
0.82
9.01

14.33
23.34
1 070

12
5-8
22 363 000
5 591 000
2 795 000
30 749 000


0.26
0.60
1.97
0.28
2.73
0.37
6.21
0.62
6.83

10.82
17.65
1.    Includes engineering and construction overhead costs.
2.    Includes natural gas, water and electric power.
3.    Includes limestone for weak acid neutralization and other operating supplies.
4.    @ 3.3%/year of total capital cost.
5.    Includes property taxes, insurance, legal and technical counsel, etc.
t = tonne

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TABLE B.2.5         COST OF RECOVERING LIQUID SULPHUR DIOXIDE FROM SMELTER
                    GASES (EPS-3 AP-79-8)
                                    ($ CAN. 3une, 1979)


                            Chemical Absorption Process          Physical Recovery Process
Basis For Estimates           (Asarco's Dimethyl Aniline Process)    (Compression & Refrigeration)

Production:

160 t/day liquid SO-, corresponding to 56 000 t annually (assuming 350 operating days)

Gas processed:

smelter gases with 12% SO2, cleaned in hot electrostatic precipitator

CAPITAL COST ($June 1979 cost level)

Liquid SO- plant1             7 103 000                          6 314  000
Contingency @ 25%           1 778 000                          1 578  000

Total Capital Cost            8 881 000                          7 892  000

PRODUCTION COST          $/t SO2                             $/t SO2

Operating cost

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Supervision 0.75
Operating labour 3.45
Utilities* , 9.85
Operating supplies 3.83
Maintenance _ 7.13
Indirect costs 1.36
Royalties 0.63
Subtotal 27.00
Contingency (§10% 2.70
Total Operating Cost 29.70
Capital Charges
Amortization <5c interest
@ 15 years and 10%/year 20.43
Total Production Cost 50.13
Includes engineering and construction overhead costs.
Includes steam, water and electric power.
Includes chemicals and other operating supplies.
@ 4.6%/year of total capital cost.
Includes property taxes, insurance, legal and technical counsel, etc.
Royalties payable for proprietary process.
0.75
3.45
9.04
0.98
6.34
1.36
21.92
2.19
24.11
18.15
42.26

t = tonne

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           The majority of the non-ferrous smelters currently controlling SO- emissions
produce sulphuric acid as a by-product.  It is anticipated that this trend will continue for
some time.  The disposal of the by-product sulphuric acid is likely to be a problem where
a) the smelter is remote from sulphuric acid markets or b) existing sulphuric acid markets
are already supplied with lower cost acid.  In these cases the smelter acid  can only be
marketed, at  a  loss,  which increases with the distance from market and  the  cost of
competing acid.  Non-market constraints such as international trade agreements, lack of
adequate transportation  facilities, etc., may  prevent sale of acid in  some  areas.   The
marketing of the acid may impose costs on the smelter which increase  the cost of control
to a point where smelter closure is considered.
           A related problem is the high cost and environmental problems associated with
the neutralization of  acid  which cannot be  marketed  because  of high  cost or  other
reasons.  The  costs and environmental factors depend largely on the availability and cost
of a reasonable  source of limestone (not  always close  to smelter).  The  environmental
problems of disposal of the neutralized acid are similar to those for  the thermal power
wastes.
           Another factor in marketing smelter sulphuric acid is that the demand cycle
for sulphuric acid may not coincide with the demand cycle for metals, raising  the  issue of
the disposal of acid, that is excess to market demand  at a time when metal demand is
high.
           Another waste disposal problem concerns the sludge produced  in the cleaning
of the SC^-containing gases for acid production. This sludge often  contains toxic metals
which can create environmental problems if disposal measures are  inadequate.
Energy Consumption
           Energy consumption by SC^ control technology in use varies from smelter to
smelter.  The  increase in energy  consumption due to sulphuric acid production is partly
dependent on  the strength of the SO2 streams (the higher the  SO2 concentration,  the
lower the energy requirement) but is a small part of total smelter energy consumption.
           Where  new smelting processes are used to  produce a gas amenable  to SO-
control in an  acid  plant, a net reduction in  energy consumption  usually results.   For
example, replacement  of a multi-hearth roaster - reverberatory furnace operation with a
flash  furnace  can lead to a net energy reduction  of up  to 65% of the roaster smelting
system (including the acid plant energy increase).

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                                         50

B.2.2.2     Control Technology Available
           The control technology discussed in Section B.2.2.1 (sulphuric acid and liquid
sulphur dioxide plants) can be considered as available control  technology for either new
smelters or for retrofitting existing smelters.  A summary of  Cu/Ni smelter SO2 control
systems is given in Table B.2.6.
           For those  plants where it  is not practical or economical to  market sulphuric
acid because of remote location or market saturation, the cost of acid neutralization and
gypsum  impounding must be added. The operating costs for total fixation of the sulphur in
smelter gases are shown in Table B.2.7.
           Technology for fixing sulphur as elemental sulphur is also available. However,
it  is much  more expensive ($129/tonne sulphur)  than producing either sulphuric acid or
liquid SO2.  A relatively concentrated SO- stream  of  low oxygen content is  required
together with substantial quantities of reductant. Therefore it is not  applicable to most
existing smelter gas streams.

TABLE B.2.7     COST OF SULPHUR FIXATION  WITH NEUTRALIZATION AND
                GYPSUM IMPOUNDING OF H,SO,. STREAM
                (EPS-3 AP-79-8) ($ CAN. Junef 1979)

                                                $/Tonne Sulphur Fixed
                                                Double               Single
                                                Catalysis              Catalysis
All Gases to Sulphuric Acid and Acid Neutralization
(1)   540 t/day H2SO^                           169                   164
(2)   1 100 t/day H2SO^                          144                   140
Liquid SO2> Acid Production and Acid Neutralization
(1)   160 t/day SO2 and                          158-  163             155   -160
     540 t/day H2SO^ to neutralization
Elemental Sulphur, Acid Production, and Acid Neutralization
(1)   270 t/day elemental sulphur and
     540 t/day H2$O^ to neutralization           155                   152
NOTE:     Liquid SO2 and elemental sulphur are  produced from high-grade continuous gas
           streams.   Lower-grade variable converter  gases are  processed  to sulphuric
           acid, which is neutralized and impounded.

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TABLE B.2.6 COPPER/NICKEL SMELTER SO2 CONTROL SYSTEMS
Smelter Process

Technology Cost
Multi-hearth roaster, Med.
reverb., converter
Multi-hearth roaster, Med.
reverb., converter
Fluid-bed roaster, Med.
reverb., converter
Fluid-bed roaster, Med.
reverb., converter

Fluid-bed roaster, Med.
reverb., converter


Fluid-bed roaster, High
electric furnace,
converter
Fluid-bed roaster, High
electric furnace,
converter

Direct furnace Low
smelting, con-
verter (Inco,
Outokumpu, Noranda)
Direct furnace Low
smelting, con-
verter (Inco,
Outokumpu, Noranda)

Technology
Availability
High

High

High

High


High



High


High



High1



High



Continuous Low+ Med.
smelting
(Mitsubishi,
Noranda)
Hydrometallurgy High

1 Unknown
2 Can be used only for



Low3



Energy
Consumption
High

High

High

High


High



Very
High

Very
High


Low



Low



Low



High to
Very High

SO2Control System

Technology
Non-regenerative
FGD
Regenerative
FGD + Acid
Acid plant on roaster

Acid plant on roaster
& non-regenerative FGD
on weak gas streams
Acid plant on roaster
& regenerative FGD on
weak gas streams & acid
plant
Acid plant on roaster,
electric furnace,
converter
Acid plant on roaster,
electric furnace, con-
verter plus FGD system
on weak gas streams
Acid plant on flash
furnace ic converter


Acid plant on flash
furnace plus FGD
system on weak gas
streams
Acid plant



?



SO,
Control %
To 85%

To 85%

To 45%

To 90%


To 90%



To 90%


To 95%



To 90%



To 95%



To 98%



To 99.5%



Availability Operating Energy
Cost Technology Reliability Consumption
High Low Low High

High Low Low High

Low High High Low

High Low Low High


High Low Low High



Low High High Low-
Med.

Med. Med. Med. Med.



Low High High Low



Med. Med. Med. Med.



Low High High Low



? ? ? ?




By-Product
Sulphur compound for
waste disposal
Sulphuric acid

Sulphuric acid

Sulphuric acid and
sulphur compound for
waste disposal
Sulphuric acid



Sulphuric acid


Sulphuric acid and
sulphur compound for
waste disposal

Sulphuric acid



Sulphuric acid and
sulphur compound for
waste disposal

Sulphuric acid



Elemental sulphur


clean copper concentrates.
3    Problems with precious metals recovery, limited operating experience; could be considered for some special cases
Source:  Background document in preparation

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                                         52
           The  uncertainties  in  the  data  base  are  similar  to  those  discussed  in
Section B.2.2.1  except that  the capital cost  uncertainty is  estimated at + 25% and the
operating cost uncertainty is  estimated at no greater than + 30%.
           By-product disposal problems are basically the same  as  in those discussed  in
Section B.2.2.1 since the technologies used are the same.  The only exception is that the
problems are likely to be more frequent since the presently controlled smelters  may have
already captured  much of the existing  sulphuric acid market.  If  elemental sulphur  is
produced, the disposal problems are minimal, even if the sulphur has to be stockpiled.
           The energy consumption is similar to that discussed in Section 2.2.1  except  in
the case of elemental sulphur production, which is an energy-intensive process.
B.2.2.3     Emerging Control Technology
           As previously  mentioned, the most common  mode of collecting  SOj in the
smelting industry is to use a  sulphuric acid plant.  The gases from fluid-bed roasters and
converters  (sometimes) are high enough in  SO- concentration for direct processing in a
conventional acid plant.  This is the lowest-cost approach  and recovers  a usable by-
product. However, the 0.5 to 1.5% SO- average concentration in reverberatory furnace
off-gas  is not sufficiently high for direct processing of the gas in  a conventional sulphuric
acid  plant.   For  this  reason,  flue gas  desulphurization  (FGD) systems  have  been
incorporated at a few smelters under  specific conditions.  They  may be classified as
regenerative and non-regenerative; the former produces $©2  as a more concentrated gas,
and the latter generally converts it to a throwaway by-product.
           The non-regenerative systems essentially neutralize the  SO- and place it in a
stable form which can be disposed of with minimal adverse effects on the environment.
Most  regenerative systems absorb the SO- and then regenerate it as a more concentrated
stream  which can then be used to make either liquid SO-, sulphuric acid, or  sulphur.   In
those cases  where the sulphuric acid market is such that  additional production is not
saleable, the non-regenerative systems would seem to be the logical choice for controlling
SO- from the smelter reverberatory furnace.  In those cases  where a usable by-product is
desired, then several  possible concentration systems have been  proven feasible at full-
scale  operations on reverberatory furnace off-gases.  The costs, however,  are  very high
and each retrofit system  must  be  considered on an  individual  basis.   Of  the  non-
regenerative throwaway systems, the one that has received the most use for collecting
SO2  is  the lime/limestone gypsum  system.    Of  all  the  potential  regenerative
(concentration)  systems that have  been considered,  the metallurgical gas  experience

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                                         53
has been  with  the  MgO, ammonia and the cold  water adsorption systems.  The citrate
process has operated on a pilot-plant scale.
           Each of the FGD scrubbing systems has seen application at only one smelter;
the MgO  and lime/limestone at the Onahoma smelter in Japan,  ammonia at Cominco,
Canada, dual alkali at Afton,  Canada and cold water at Boliden, Sweden.   Flakt  and
Boliden are jointly developing a citrate system for smelter weak SC>2 which is in the pilot
stage.    Currently  the state-of-the-art  is such that FGD  by wet  scrubbing  can  be
accomplished, but there are significant financial and technical risks in  the  selection,
design  and application  of such systems  owing to lack of extensive pilot  experience on
various types of concentrates.  Because of the nature of the scrubbing processes, energy
consumption will generally be substantial and disposal of waste products will often create
environmental problems. Work underway will provide background information for  these
aspects.
           The costs (capital and  operating) for  these systems are  being developed  and
will be available for inclusion at a later date.

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                                         54
B.2.3      ALTERNATIVE PRODUCTION PROCESSES

Processes that Provide Gases More Amenable for SO2 Control
           Many existing  smelters have  equipment such as multiple-hearth roasters and
reverberatory furnaces  which produce gases too  low in SO-  for  direct  processing to
sulphuric acid.  The multiple-hearth roasters can  be  replaced by fluid-bed roasters, and
thus up to  45% of the sulphur can be produced in  an  SO2 concentration high enough for
sulphuric acid production.  An even greater improvement can  be achieved by replacing
both multiple-hearth  roasters  and reverberatory furnaces by flash  smelting units which
can produce 60% or more of  the sulphur as high-strength SO2 gas.
           Conventional converting in most smelters is a batch  operation that produces a
gas stream of variable SO2 content which is difficult to process into sulphur by-products.
Continuous smelting processes such  as the  Mitsubishi process  and  the Noranda  process
produce a continuous  high-strength gas.  However, these processes have been proven only
for certain "clean" copper concentrates.
Processes That Eliminate SO2 Formation
           Hydrometallurgical  processing  of  nickel  sulphide  concentrates  has  been
practised by one Canadian company for 20 years and the hydrometallurgical processing of
copper and zinc concentrates  are in various  stages of research and development. While
these processes do not produce SO2 gas, they have not been widely used owing to  factors
including high costs, problems  with recovery of precious metals, high energy consumption
and lack of adequate development.
Processes that Reduce Sulphur Input to the Metallurgical Processes
           In some cases,  it  is  possible to modify the ore benefication processes to reject
a greater amount of sulphide minerals than normal. This is practised, for example, in the
nickel industry where part of the pyrrhotite is rejected in  the milling  and concentration
stage thus  reducing the sulphur  to metal ratio of the concentrate entering the smelter.
Some metal values (including  nickel, cobalt, platinum, etc.) are lost  with the rejected
pyrrhotite, and a compromise is made between metal values lost  and sulphur rejected.

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                                         55
B.2.4      PRELIMINARY COST OF CONTROLS FOR EASTERN CANADIAN SMELTERS

           Preliminary costs have been developed for one level of SO2 emission control
for eastern Canadian non-ferrous  smelters.   The  exact level varies  from  smelter to
smelter  depending on the present level  of control, concentrate  characteristics  and
production processes. The costs are based on preliminary estimates. Current work under-
way will provide  more accurate costs for control to this  level and also  will provide cost
estimates for more stringent levels of control.
           The costs include  modifications and/or improvements  to existing  operations,
replacement of some production process unit operations,  modifications to flues and flue
gas  cleaning  facilities,   sulphuric  acid plants, sulphuric acid  storage,  handling  and
transportation facilities and sulphuric acid disposal.  No control of weak gas streams is
included at this time.
           The estimated capital cost to reduce SO- emissions (at smelter capacity) from
2.7 million  tonnes per year to  1.17 million tonnes per year (a 57% reduction) is $1.1
billion.  The net increase  in annualized costs is estimated at $120 to $150 million. (Note:
includes major changes at four smelters and  minor changes at two smelters).
           The net increase in annualized costs is equivalent to 15<: to 20£ per  Ib of nickel
and 5£ to 8£ per Ib of copper.
           A number of factors may change these costs as a result of further work under-
way.  The costs  of  acid  sale/disposal may be low  for the remote smelters  it may  be
necessary to neutralize some of the acid produced, etc.
           The above costs include those identified in the preliminary feasibility study
which was carried out for the  Inco copper-nickel  smelter at Sudbury, Ont. The estimated
cost at  capacity operations for a reduction of SOo emissions from  1.1* million tonnes per
year to 0.41 million tonnes per year (6*%) was $480 million.  This reduction was based on
the installation of sulphuric acid plants and major process changes. The estimated net
increase in annualized costs was $60 to $65 million (includes capital and operating costs).

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                                        56

REFERENCES
1.   Environment Canada, Air Pollution Control Directorate, A Study of Sulphur Con-
     tainment Technology in the Non-Ferrous  Metallurgical Industry, Report EPS 3-AP-
     79-8 (April 1980).

2.   Weisenberg, I.J., et al., Feasibility of Primary Copper Smelter Weak Sulphur Dioxide
     Stream Control, EPA-600/2-80-152, 3uly 1980.

3.   Environment Canada,  Air Pollution  Control  Directorate,  The  Nickel Industry,
     background paper prepared for United Nations Environment Program (draft revised
     October 1980).

4.   Environment Canada, Air Pollution Control Directorate, Air Pollution Emissions and
     Control Technology:    Copper Smelting Industry  (draft report  in  preparation,
     December 1980).

5.   Environment Canada, Air Pollution Control Directorate, A Preliminary Assessment
     of Feasible  SO^ Emission Reductions and  Costs at INCO Copper-Nickel Smelter,
     Sudbury, Ontario (May 1980).

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                                         57
B.3        MOBILE SOURCES

B.3.1      Description of Sector
           In the transportation sector gasoline and diesel-powered road vehicles account
for about 70% of NO  emissions while a further 20% comes from non-highway applications
of gasoline and diesel  engines.  Thus, with  federal design emission standards in  both
countries for such vehicles (and/or  engines), over 90% of the NO  emission inventory is
already subject to controls of varying stringency at the new vehicle/engine level.
           Emissions of SO  from mobile sources are negligible (about 1.5% of man-made
emissions).
B.3.2      CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES
B.3.2.1     United States - New Vehicles
           In the United States, tailpipe emission standards  are in effect for a  variety of
light- and heavy-duty  vehicles, including motorcycles and airplanes.
           In examining emissions of  any  pollutant from road vehicles one can  divide the
subject neatly into two  parts:  the design performance of vehicles, usually covered under
new vehicle/engine emission regulations, and the actual emissions performance of vehicles
in consumers' hands, including both the amount and kind of use each vehicle sees.
B.3.2.1.1   Light-Duty Vehicles
           Current emission standards are in effect for light-duty vehicles (LDV's) which
require a 90% reduction in hydrocarbons (HC) and  carbon  monoxide (CO), and  a  75%
reduction in nitrogen oxides (NO ) as compared to 1970 model passenger cars.
                              J\
           There have been a series of emission control devices on passenger cars since
the 1960's; however, beginning with the 1972 production models, emission  control devices
began  to bring  about significant reductions in  air pollutants.  In  1975, the  catalytic
converter was introduced on a large scale and has since become the  primary system for
controlling HC and CO.  The technology for meeting  the  current automobile emission
standards employs the catalyst technology coupled with  a series of electronic and vacuum
sensing devices  which detect and control selected engine operating parameters.  A so-
called  three-way catalyst (incorporating NO   reduction  as well) is being used on many of
                                         A
the 1980 production cars.

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                                        58
          All the federal emission standards apply only to new production cars.  Because
the standards themselves have changed over time, and because it takes 8 to 10 years for
an effective turnover of the vehicle fleet, it will still be a number of years  before the
total potential of the federal emission standards for LDV's can be fully realized.
          Table B.3.1 provides a breakdown of the cost of the individual components of a
typical  three-way catalyst.  As  can be  seen,  the system  (which controls all three
pollutants) is estimated  to cost about $300 per car.  The catalyst is expected to continue
to be the primary  emission control technology for  the foreseeable future.
TABLE B.3.1
COST OF COMPONENTS IN A THREE-WAY PLUS OXIDATION
CATALYST SYSTEM
Component
Throttle position sensor
PCV valve
HEI (less breaker point distributor)
TVS (spark)
Electric choke
EFE
EGR (backpressure)
TVS (EGR)
Stainless steel exhaust pipe
(less steel pipe)
Air injection system
Air switching system
Feedback carburetor
(less open loop carburetor)
Three-way plus oxidation
catalyst
ECU
Oj sensor
FUO temperature sensor
Inlet air temperature sensor
Engine speed sensor
Crank angle position sensor
EGR pintle position sensor
Evaporative system
TOTAL
Source: Lingren, LeRoy H. (Rath and
Cost (1979$)
Minimum
$ -
1.1
7.7
-
1.1
4.4
7.7
-

9.9
33.0
2.2

8.8

172.7
33.0
3.3
-
-
-
-
-
11.0
$295.9
Strong, Inc.).
Maximum
$ 2.2
1.1
7.7
2.2
1.1
4.4
7.7
2.2

9.9
33.0
2.2

8.8

172.7
33.0
3.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
11.0
$313.5
March 1978. "Cost
               Estimation for Emission Control Related Components/Systems and  Cost
               Methodology Description." EPA-460/3-78-002.

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                                        59
B.3.2.1.2        Light-Duty Trucks
           Because light-duty trucks (LDT's) perform different functions than passenger
cars, it is difficult to achieve the same level of emission reduction even though the same
engines are  interchangeably  used  in  many cases.   Consequently,  the  U.S. emission
standards for LTD's are  somewhat  less stringent than  corresponding  standards  for
passenger cars.  For comparison, emission standards (in grams/mile) for model year 1981
LDT's and LDV's are listed below:

                           HC              CO                   NOV
                             • -                 -                      x
LDV's (1981)                0.*               3.*                  1.0
LDT's (1981)                1.7              18.0                  2.3
LDT's (1983)                0.8              10.0                  2.3 (possibly 1.2)

Generally, the same basic technology is used  for both LDT's and LDV's.  However, some of
the electronic sensors or such add-on systems as  the air pump may not be required. The
cost of the control system will be very similar to that previously presented for LDV's.
B.3.2.1.3        Heavy-Duty Trucks
           Heavy-duty trucks  are usually divided into  two categories, gasoline-powered
and diesel-powered.  Control technology for  both  categories is available. The Clean Air
Act Amendments of  1970  require that  standards be established  in the U.S. which will
provide a 90%, 90%, and 75% reduction in HC, CO, and NOX as compared to that produced
in 1973.   For HC and CO,  the technology is available  to  achieve these  reductions;
however,  the  availability  of  technology for achieving the  required  reduction in NOX,
particularly for the diesel engine, is questionable.
B.3.2.1.*   Cost of U.S. FMVCP
           Table B.3.2 provides a summary of the estimated  annualized cost  of  the
FMVCP in 1987.  The table includes cost savings  as the result of reductions in fuel and
maintenance which resulted from the installation of more sophisticated engine controls to
meet the stringent emission standards mandated by the FMVCP.

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                                        60
TABLE B.3.2
TOTAL ANNUAL COST OF THE FMVCP IN 1987 (1979$ X 106)
Type of Vehicle
                                    Annual Cost of Control
Passenger Cars (LDV's)
     Hardware
     Fuel economy
     Unleaded gasoline cost
     Operating and maintenance
     Altitude controls
     Sub-total
Light-Duty Trucks (LDT's)
     Hardware
     Fuel economy
     Unleaded gasoline cost
     Operating and maintenance
     Altitude controls
     Sub-total
Heavy-Duty Trucks (HDV's)
     All costs
Motorcycles
     All costs
Aircraft
     All costs
TOTAL COST
                                            $6006
                                            (5130)a
                                             2199
                                            (1917)
                                              834
                                             1992
                                             2220
                                                0
                                             1062
                                                0
                                              300
                                             3582


                                              862


                                               92


                                            	92
                                            $6620
a Negative costs

B.3.2.2    United States - In-Use Vehicles
B.3.2.2.1  Inspection and Maintenance
          Although the FMVCP has achieved significant emission reductions, the overall
performance of the program has  been somewhat less than desired.  This is because the

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                                         61
control systems have historically exhibited a high rate of deterioration, primarily due to
owner or mechanic tampering in an attempt to improve driveability. There have also been
indications that the use of leaded gasoline  in about  10% of automobiles equipped with
catalytic  converters  has  reduced the overall effectiveness of  the  FMVCP since lead
destroys the capability of the catalyst to perform its function.
           To ensure that the control systems continue to function as designed, a number
of major  urban areas have adopted or plan to adopt a system of frequently inspecting
automobiles, and requiring proper maintenance on those vehicles that fail to meet the
emission standards.  Such programs automatically incorporate an allowance for deterior-
ation which is dependent upon vehicle age and is taken into account during the inspection.
This system is frequently referred to as Inspection and Maintenance (I&M) and is required
by the Clean  Air  Act Amendments of 1977  to be implemented in all areas that  cannot
meet the national ambient air quality standards by 1982.
           The  effectiveness  of  an I&M  program  is  dependent upon many factors,
including  the  degree of  stringency, the  frequency  of  inspections,  the training  of
inspectors, etc. However, an effective I&M program can provide between  10% and 25%
more  emission  reduction  for   HC  and CO  than possible  through  the  FMVCP only.
Reductions for NO  through I&M are somewhat lower but  generally an estimated 5% to
                  A
10% improvement  is  possible.
           Inspection costs run between $5 and  $10 per  car  and the repair cost  have
averaged  just under  $30 for each car  that failed the inspection.  Generally, systems in
operation  at  the  current  time have  been  designed around a 30%  failure rate.  The
annualized cost of an I&M program to meet current U.S. air  quality standards by 1987 is
estimated to be around $400 million.  Potential fuel  savings as a result of maintaining
proper tuning of the cars may reduce this cost to approximately $250 million.
B.3.2.2.2   Transportation Control Measures
           If  emission reductions beyond those  achievable  with  tailpipe standards  are
required, transportation measures can be used.  These measures involve a host of possible
alternatives ranging  from  simple cost-saving programs such as carpooling to extensive
major rerouting of traffic, gasoline  rationing or mass transit systems.  Because  of the
variety of options, it is difficult to estimate the cost of such programs. However, there
are indications that the simple and inexpensive options do offer some emission reduction
potential  (maybe 5%).  Generally, these less expensive options also offer some form of
fuel savings.

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                                         62
B.3.2.3     Canada - New Vehicles
           In  Canada  new  light-duty  vehicles are  currently  subject  to an  emission
standard for NO  of 3.1 grams per mile (gpm).  Many of the vehicles, however, meet the
               A
U.S.  standard of 2 gpm for the late 70's models and, from  1981  on, 1 gpm.  Thus the
weighted average design emission level would be about 5 gpm until 1973,  2.8 gpm to  1980
and 2.3  gpm thereafter. The current 3.1 gpm standard is under review and the decision on
the emission standard for 1985 and later models is expected within 18 months.
B.3.2.*     Canada - In-Use Vehicles
           The actual NO  emissions from vehicles in consumers' hands are affected by a
                        A
large variety of factors including ambient temperature, individual driving style, state-of-
tune of the  vehicle,  mode of  operation,  and,  recently  discovered to  be  of major
importance, direct tampering with NO  emission controls.
                                   A
           Investigations  into  tampering  with EGR  valves have indicated  that  the
tampering rate may well be as high as 30% rather than the 5 to 10% previously estimated.
Thus, we are no longer  satisfied that our  emissions model is  accurate. With that caveat
our current estimate is that the average (whole fleet) emissions were in the neighborhood
of 4.5 gpm until  1975,  about 3.5 from then  until 1980 and, in the absence of further
investigation/control on the tampering rate, about 3 gpm thereafter.
           A  national  guideline (I/M)  for the control  of  excess emissions and  fuel
consumption  by in-use  vehicles will soon be promulgated.   It advocates a "phase-in"
approach, starting with new vehicles and using very stringent  standards  that would be
equivalent to a 75% failure rate on the U.S. program discussed in B.3.2.2.1.  As a  result a
mature  program is expected to reduce CO emissions by 40 to 50%, HC emissions by 20%
and fuel consumption by 3 to 5% on the subject fleet.  The dollar value of the gasoline
savings  will exceed the total societal cost of the program.

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                                          63
B.*        PETROLEUM REFINING

B.4.1      Canadian Petroleum Refineries
           Location;   There are 33 operating refineries located across Canada, with k in
the Maritimes, 7 in Quebec, 8 in Ontario, 1 in the Northwest Territories and 13 in Western
Canada.
B.4.1.1     Production Processes
           Refineries  differ in their processing layout, depending on their capacity, type
of crude oil processed, complexity of the processes involved, product  specifications, and
product requirements.  Generally,  the following processes are used in  petroleum refining
after washing crude oil with water for salt removal (desalting).
B.4.1.2     Separation
(a)    Atmospheric distillation, to separate light and/or heavy oil fractions
(b)    Vacuum distillation,to separate heavy oil fraction into gas-oil, lube-oil, and residue
B.4.1.3     Conversion
(a)    Catalytic cracking
(b)    Catalytic naptha reforming
(c)    Light hydrocarbon processing
      (i)    polymerization
      (ii)   alkylation
(d)    Isomerization
(e)    Coking
      (i)  Delayed
      (ii) Fluid-bed
(g)    Desulphurization of fuel oils
(h)    Sulphur recovery by Claus Process
B.*.1.4     Treating;   removal of r^S and mercaptans from light hydrocarbons  by amine
and chemical treatment (sodium plumbite or copper chloride).
B.4.1.5     Blending; Blending of base stock to meet the applicable specifications.
B.4.1.6          Emissions;     Annual   emissions   for   this    industry   sector   are
263 OOP tonnes/year SC   (92 000  from refining  processes;  171 OQQ   from combustion

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                                          64
processes) and  45 800 tonnes/year  NO   (4 400  from  refining processes, 41 400  from
                                      A
combustion processes).  These emissions result from refinery process heaters and boilers,
sulphur recovery plants, fluid catalytic cracking units, incinerators and flares.
           Available technologies could be installed to substantially reduce SC^ emissions
from  fluid catalytic cracking  (FCC) regenerators and sulphur plants on existing plants.
Emissions could also be reduced  significantly if the refineries switched  to low-sulphur
fuels in the refinery fuel system.
           This industry sector is not presently being rigorously addressed. However, as
strategy  options are developed, several major metropolitan areas that contain refineries
could be  involved, necessitating a further assessment of this sector.
B.4.2       United States Petroleum Refineries
           In  terms of  total  mass  emissions of  SO   and NO , petroleum  refineries
                                                    A         J\
contribute a relatively small percentage of the total U.S.  emissions of  these pollutants.
Specifically,  refineries contribute 3.9% of  the  SO  emissions and  0.85% of  the NO
                                                  A                                 A
emissions. Geographically, a majority of the U.S. refinery capacity is in the  Gulf Coast
and West Coast areas of the United States, but a significant portion is in  the north central
(2.4 x 106  BPD,  14%) and  northeastern (1.8 x 106  BPD,  10%)  parts  of  the  country.
Existing  fuel gas  and  sulfur plant regulations, anticipated regulations  for sulfur oxides
from  FCC units  and  anticipated  regulations for  industrial boilers  indicate that any
increased refinery capacity will have the minimum emissions of SO   and NO .
                                                               A        A
           No detailed assessment has been  published on  the contributions of SO  and
                                                                                A
NO  emissions resulting from refinery fuels used in process heaters and boilers.
   A
           No grass-roots refinery capacity is expected  to be added  in  the near future.
However, an indeterminate amount of refinery upgrading which includes FCC capacity is
expected to be added over the  next few years.  This upgrading may increase or decrease
SO and  NO  emissions depending on the extent to which  new controlled processes replace
   A        A
old uncontrolled ones.  There is no study available at this  time that predicts what  refinery
emissions will be as a result of the anticipated upgrading.

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                                         65
B.5        INDUSTRIAL, RESIDENTIAL, COMMERCIAL FUEL COMBUSTION

           Sulphur  and nitrogen oxide emissions  from non-utility  fuel  combustion in
Canada are about 1.1 million tons and 600 000 tons per year respectively.  For the United
States, these sources account for some 7.3 million tons of SO2 emissions and 7.1 million
tons of NO  emissions.These numbers  include those emissions already identified  in the
           J\
fuel combustion portion of the larger industrial sectors.  The vast majority of these
emissions are associated with heavy and light oil combustion and as a result are mainly
confined to the larger urban and industrial areas.
           Control  technology in this sector is  size specific, with flue gas desulphuri-
zation and low-NO   combustion modifications  applicable to  the  larger-sized combustion
units of the industrial sector.   Control technology in  the  commercial and residential
sector has not progressed as rapidly as with  the  larger boilers, primarily because of the
smaller emission reduction potential.  However, it is known that  some emission  reduction
is economically possible in the commercial and residential sectors.
           Oil desulphurization to  reduce SO- emissions is a well-developed technology
although no facilities exist in Canada. Residual (heavy) oil can be readily desulphurized to
0.5%S and light oils to 0.3%S.  The cost varies with the type of crude  oil and  increases
with the degree of desulphurization.
           The main role for desulphurized oil with respect to the acid deposition problem
would be to reduce area emissions from large urban areas.
B.5.1      Industrial Combustion Units
           As in the utility boiler  sector, a  variety of control strategies can be used to
reduce sulphur oxide emissions. These strategies include  low-sulphur fuel, wet or dry flue
gas desulphurization and fluid-bed combustion. Low-sulphur coal and hydro desulphuriza-
tion of fuel oil can be used to reduce SO  emissions to about 1.2 lb/10  Btu and 0.2 lb/10
Btu, respectively.   Although flue gas desulphurization can lower potential sulphur oxide
emissions by up to 90%, there are no  units in operation at present in Canada.   Fluid-bed
combustion can  achieve  a 70-85%  SO7 reduction and about  a 70%  reduction in NO  at
                                    £                                           A
operating costs competitive  with flue gas desulphurization. The capital cost of  the fluid-
bed boiler will exceed that of a conventional coal combustion system.
           Combustion modification is the principal method of controlling NO emissions.
The  NO  emission limits achievable using combustion modification are dependent upon the
       A

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                                          66
fuel type (oil, coal, gas) and firing method.  Studies are presently being done to delineate
the optimum methods available.
           The  cost  of retrofitting  industrial  boilers is highly  uncertain since space
limitations and other restrictions can cause significant variations.
B.5.2      NOX and SO2 Control Technologies Available
           The dual-alkali wet flue desulphurization process is the dominant sulphur oxide
control technology for industrial boilers.   Sodium  once-through systems are used  in
industries which produce a sodium-containing waste stream such as  pulp and paper and
textile mills (from de-ionizer recharging).  There are two commercial installations of the
lime spray dryer SO2  control  process.  The cost of SO2  control technology  varies  as a
function of boiler  size, load factor,  and fuel sulphur content. Thus the uncertainty  in
capital and annual costs can be large.  The capital costs and operating costs shown  in
Figures B.5.1 and B.5.2 can be in error by as much as +40 percent.
           Frequent operating  or other scheduled shutdowns in  some industries could
create problems in the operating reliability of some control processes.  The disposal  of
scrubber sludge also presents a problem.
           Field trials  are underway on retrofitting a coal-fuel unit to the low-NO  firing
                                                                              A
mode through burner modifications.  Although these are being performed in a utility unit,
the technology is expected to  be available to the larger-sized industrial coal-fired units.
Feasibility studies and modification scheduling are being conducted for the retrofitting  of
an  industrial  coal-fired  unit  to  Limestone  Injection/Multi-stage  Burners  for  the
simultaneous reduction of  SO, and NO . This field trial is being performed on a military
                            £*        A
base in New Brunswick and is expected to demonstrate this technology further, for use in
the large industrial and utility boiler sector.
           The  construction of  a fluidized bed  combustion unit  is  scheduled  for early
spring 1981.  The operation  of  this  unit will provide  data on reliability,  costs  and
performance of  simultaneous  sulphur and nitrogen oxide control from high-ash, high-
sulphur coals in addition to other coals presently available  in eastern Canada.
B.5.3      Residential and Commercial Combustion Units
           Control technology in these sectors has not progressed as rapidly as for the
larger boilers, primarily because of the considerably smaller emission reduction potential
for this sector.   However, research  has estimated  that some  emission reduction  is
economically possible for commercial and residential boilers.

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                                    67
                 400Or
                 3OOO
              "5
              •D
              "o
              c
              «  2OOO
              (0
              0
              U
              5
              "5.
              a
              o
                 1OOO
                          Wellman-Lord
                                          Double Alkali
               Limestone
                                                       Sodium Throwaway
                                 29.3          58.6         87.9
                                 (100)         (200)         (300)
                                     Size in MWt (1O6Btu/hr)
                                                         117.2
                                                         (400)
         FIGURE  B.5.1.
             FGD CAPITAL COSTS  VERSUS UNIT SIZE
                    (3.5% S coal, 9O% removal)
Source:
Technical Assessment Report for Industrial Boiler Applications:
Flue Gas Desulfurization
Industrial Environmental Laboratory; U.S. E.P.A., November 1979

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                                      68
               2OOOr
               1500
            o
            •o
            n
            O
            u

            •o
            ID
            N

            "3
            3
            C
            C
               1OOO
                50O
                                                                        Dual Alkali
                                                                           Sodium Throwaway
                               29.3          58.6          87.9
                              (100)         (200)         (300)

                                   Size in MWf (1O8 Btu/hr)
                                                        117.2
                                                        (400)
      FIGURE B.5.2.
        F6D  ANNUALIZED COSTS VERSUS UNIT SIZE

                 (3.5% S coal. 9O%  removal)
Source:
Technical Assessment Report for Industrial Boiler Applications:
Flue Gas Desuifurization
Industrial Environmental Laboratory; U.S. E.P.A., November 1979

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                                         69
           Research by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has shown that proper
maintenance and operation of existing commercial and residential  heating units are the
most economical means of  reducing emissions from these sources.   Such practices also
provide fuel savings which can potentially offset maintenance cost.   Education  of owners
and  operators  is the best means of achieving  the desired  maintenance and  operating
practices.
           In a recent study of home heating units, it was found that by identifying and
replacing untuneable units and by tuning the  remaining units, smoke could be reduced by
50%, CO  by 81%, HC by 90% and filterable particulate by 24%.   A recent EPA study
indicates that by proper design of residential heating systems, it is possible to  achieve a
65% reduction in NO   emissions, and at the  same time,  to reach a steady state thermal
                   yv
efficiency  of 70  to 80%.   The  fuel  reduction potential was found to approximate  20
percent. The prototype version of the system has been field-tested, and the above results
are from this test.
           Cost figures for this system are not  available, but  indications are that any
increase in cost will be greatly offset  by the  fuel  savings  and increased thermal
efficiency.

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                                         70
B.6        INCINERATORS
Canada

           Municipal incinerators emit  significant amounts of particulate matter, and
lesser  amounts  of  sulphur  dioxide  and  nitrogen oxides to the  atmosphere.   A  large
municipal incinerator (1000 tonnes per day), for example, emits 550 tonnes per year (tpy)
of particulates, 300 tpy of sulphur dioxide, and 350 tpy of nitrogen oxides (1). Emissions
per tonne  of material incinerated  tend to be  equivalent or less than other types of
controlled incineration such as controlled air incinerators or sewage sludge incinerators.
           Control  techniques for  particulate  emissions  from  incinerators  are fairly
advanced; however, little, if anything, has been done to reduce sulphur dioxide or nitrogen
oxide emissions. Given the relatively low concentration of sulphur in municipal refuse and
the low  operating  temperature  of  municipal incinerators  and  consequently low NO
production compared  to fossil-fuel combustion,  it  would be  impractical  to  achieve
significant reduction in these emissions.  The  EPA control  techniques document  for
nitrogen  oxides suggests alternative disposal methods (e.g., landfill) as the only practical
control technique for nitrogen oxides from incineration.
           Emissions of SO- and NO   from  incineration in Canada are  3 245 tpy and
                           £        A
5 094 tpy respectively.  Large incinerators are located in Quebec City, Montreal, Toronto
and Hamilton.   The emissions of SO- and NO   are a small part of overall Canadian
                                    £        A
emissions,  and incineration  is not  considered to  be of significance in the acid  rain
problem.
           There are no hazardous waste incinerators operating in Canada.
U.S. Solid and Hazardous Waste
           As a generalization, much of the municipal solid waste incineration is centered
in the  Great  Lakes  and New England areas while hazardous waste incineration is  limited
by comparison but is likely to be more ubiquitous.
           Estimated emissions of NO  from solid  waste disposal in the  U.S.  indicate a
decrease from  about 0.6 million  tpy in  1968  (AP-84), to  0.3 million tpy in  1970, to a
current level of about 0.1 million tpy (draft criteria document for NO , 6/79) because of a
                                                                 A
reduction in the amount of waste burned. Air pollution control systems currently  applied
to such incinerators or  those likely to be required in the future do not generally  remove
appreciable amounts of  SO  and NO  .
                         **       J\

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                                       71

REFERENCES
1.    EPA Publication AP-42,  "Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors", third
     edition, August 1977.

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                                         72
B.7        PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY

B.7.1      United States Pulp and Paper Industry
           It is estimated that total SO  and NO  emissions from process operations are
                                      A        A
approximately 157 000 and 45 000 tonnes per  year respectively  from about 400 mills. The
combustion of fossil fuels for the  production of  additional  steam and power in this
industry sector contributes an additional 720 000 and 180 000 tonnes per year of SO and
NO  respectively.  There are no other significant acid rain  precursor emissions or direct
   A
acidic emissions from this industry sector. Since this industry  is not expected to undergo
major expansions during the balance of this  century, its relatively  minor contribution to
the total transboundary air pollution  problem  is unlikely to be altered.
           As regards the geographical distribution of pulp and paper facilities, about one
third are located in the  northeastern region, about one  quarter are in  the  Pacific
northwest, and the balance are  widely dispersed.   The low gross emissions of  SO ,
                                                                                   A
together with the wide geographic distribution of the mills  and the expectation that  no
significant expansion of this industry will occur, indicate that  transboundary transport of
acid rain precursor emissions from the pulp and paper industry is of secondary importance.
B.7.2      Canadian Pulp and Paper  Industry
           It is estimated that total SO  and NO  emissions from process operations are
                                      A        A
approximately  88000 and  13000 tonnes  per year  respectively from  114  mills.   The
combustion of fossil fuels for the  production of  additional  steam and power in this
industry sector contributes an additional 144 000 and 45 000 tonnes per year of SO  and
                                                                                yv
NOx respectively.  These emissions are split roughly 80/20  between eastern  Canada and
British Columbia.   It  is anticipated  that  a  current federal-provincial modernization
program  will reduce existing emissions. Similiar to the U.S.,  no significant expansion of
production capacity is anticipated in  the near term.  These factors indicate, as  in the
U.S., that transboundary transport  of acid  rain precursor  emissions from the pulp and
paper industry is of secondary importance.

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                                        73
C          HISTORICAL EMISSION TRENDS

C.1        INTRODUCTION

           The primary objective in developing historicai emission trends is to recreate
the emission situation of several decades ago so that such data can be used in atmospheric
models to provide an insight into sulphur deposition rates  for those periods. These rates
can then  be compared to current deposition  rates for  an  indication of the  rate  of
degradation of the environment with time.
           Factors other than strict fluctuations in the magnitude of  acid precipitation
precursor emissions,  however, have also played a role in changes in deposition rates with
time and these should not be overlooked.  For example, concurrent with increases in SO-
and NO emissions over the past 40 years has been a substantial increase (by a factor of
       X
five) in the stack height for utility  sources.  Also, SO2 emissions from  coal burning have
changed in most regions from a wintertime peak to a summertime peak in emission rate.
The importance of such factors has not been well determined at this time.

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C.2        IN THE UNITED STATES

           Methodology: Emission calculations for the United States have been made on a
broad national scale as well as on a  much more refined scale.  Similar methodologies have
been employed in making these calculations.
           Historically, data  records on emissions and  emission  rates have  been main-
tained only since the early  1970's. Consequently, in order to recreate such emissions, it is
necessary  to use  other  information.   One  of the  most accepted  approaches  to
retrospectively calculating emissions is to employ fuel use data.  Records on these data
are available and provide an  indication of how various type fuels  have been consumed by
different type sources.  Knowing the emission rates of various sources, the sulfur content
of the fuel, and  the type of emission controls on a particular type source, it is possible to
estimate the  emissions of various source categories.
           Data Uncertainty:  It is extremely difficult to provide an accurate estimate of
the data uncertainty in making the  above calculations. Generally, the fuel use data on a
national scale are quite accurate. However, as one attempts to extrapolate fuel use to a
particular type,  some errors  of uncertain magnitude enter.  Moreover,  records on the
chemical analysis of the fuel were not maintained until the 1960s  and therefore one must
make assumptions for such  important factors as sulfur content of the fuel used.
           Generally,  it is felt that the emission estimates for the utility sector are
probably within 25% accuracy for the post-1965 years; however, no accuracy figures are
available for  the pre-1965 estimates.
           No attempt has been made to assess the accuracy of the calculations for other
sources, except  to examine the  general trends exhibited to determine areas where the
trends are well outside of what might be expected.
           National Trends in Emissions: Table C.2.1   provides    a  summary   of  the
emissions of various air pollutants in the United States between  the years 1940 and  1976.
The data in the  table are the estimated total emissions  throughout the United States for
the year of record indicated.   Additional information on the total national emissions from
various  sources along with  an expanded discussion of the procedures for calculating these
emissions can be found  in the  publication  "National Air  Pollutant Emission Estimates
1940-1976", EPA-450/1-78-003, July 1978, available  through the Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle  Park, N.C. 27711.   Table C.2.2
provides an indication of the information contained in  the above references.

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                                  75



TABLE C.2.1   SUMMARY OF NATIONWIDE TOTAL EMISSION ESTIMATES
Units of
measurement
106 tons
per year









10 tonnes
per year









Year
mo
1950
1960
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1940
1950
1960
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
S0x
21.9
24.5
24.1
32.1
30.8
31.7
32.7
30.9
28.5
29.9
19.5
22.0
21.4
29.1
27.9
28.8
29.7
28.2
25.7
26.9
TSP
27.5
29.1
28.3
24.8
23.4
22.3
21.8
19.2
16.0
14.9
24.8
26.2
25.6
22.6
21.4
20.3
19.9
17.5
14.4
13.4
CO
86.7
96.6
111.0
109.9
110.2
112.3
108.2
100.7
95.3
96.6
78.3
87.0
100.0
99.8
100.2
102.0
98.3
91.5
85.9
87.2
HC
19.0
23.5
31.2
32.9
32.1
32.8
32.7
31.6
29.1
30.9
17.0
21.2
28.0
29.7
29.3
29.7
29.8
28.6
26.2
27.9
NOX
6.7
9.0
11.5
22.3
23.3
24.3
25.1
24.7
24.4
25.4
6.0
8.1
10.5
20.4
21.3
22.2
22.9
22.6
22.2
23.0

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                                         76
TABLE C.2.2    ESTIMATED NATIONWIDE EMISSIONS, 1940e
Units of
measurement
106 tons
per year


























Source
Transportation
Highway vehicles
Non-highway vehicles
Stationary fuel combustion
Electric utilities
Industrial
Residential, commercial,
institutional
Industrial processes
Chemicals
Petroleum refining
Metals
Mineral products
Oil and gas production
and marketing
Industrial organic
solvent use
Other processes
Solid waste
Miscellaneous
Forest wildfires and
managed burning
Agricultural burning
Coal refuse burning
Structural fires
Miscellaneous organic
solvent use
Total
S0x
0.7
0.0
0.7
16.8
2.9
9.3

4.6
3.9
0.1
0.2
3.2
0.2

0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5

0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0

0.0
21.9
TSP
0.5
0.2
0.3
9.6
2.0
6.2

1.4
11.0
0.4
0.0
3.7
4.4

0.0

0.0
2.5
0.6
5.8

3.8
1.6
0.4
0.0

0.0
27.5
CO
29.0
26.3
2.7
3.7
0.0
0.3

3.4
7.2
4.4
0.2
2.3
0.0

0.0

0.0
0.3
4.3
42.5

32.1
9.1
1.2
0.1

0.0
86.7
HC
6.0
5.4
0.6
0.8
0.0
0.3

0.5
3.5
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0

1.2

0.1
0.1
0.9
7.8

5.5
1.9
0.2
0.0

0.2
19.0
NOX
1.8
1.5
0.3
3.5
0.6
1.9

1.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0

0.0

0.0
0.0
0.1
1.2

0.9
0.2
0.1
0.0

0.0
6.7
     A value of zero indicates emissions of less than 50 000 tons per year.

          Historical Emission Trends on Regional Scale.  To examine  emission  trends on
a regional basis in the  United States, a data file has been constructed which also  uses
historical fuel use  figures to calculate emissions of  SO9 and NO from various categories
                                                   £        J\
of sources. The basic file contains emissions at the individual state level for the following
source categories:

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                                         77

           Electric Utilities
           Industrial
           Commercial/Residential
           Pipelines
           Highway Vehicles
              Gasoline-Powered
              Diesel-Powered
           Miscellaneous
           Railroads
           Vessels
           Misc. Off-Highway Mobile
           Chemicals
           Primary Metals
           Mineral Products
           Petroleum Refineries
           Others
The  file currently contains data for  33 eastern states plus  the  District of Columbia.
Years on record for the file are 1950, 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, and 1978.
           For the electric utility sector,  all power plants greater than 25 megawatts
have been  identified and located by the appropriate county within each state for each
year of record. Emissions of SO2 and NO  have been  determined for each year for all
such power plants.  Consequently,  it is possible to  identify power  plant emissions on a
county-by-county level for each year of record for all 33 states. The file identifies each
power plant by name, size, county location, and SO, and NO  emissions from coal, oil, and
                                               £»        X
natural gas consumption.  The file also contains fuel use  information and has some limited
data on stack height.
           To  distribute the non-power plant  emissions  to a  county level,  work  is
underway using historical  census data to assign the statewide emissions  to the county
level.  The technique  to be used is to apportion the emissions to the county base on a
historical population basis.  The  Brookhaven National Laboratory is currently conducting
this work.
           As an example of the information from this file, a sample state and county are
outlined below in Table C.2.3:

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                                         78
TABLE C.2.3    SOV EMISSIONS (x 103 tons)
State of Kentucky
Non-PP
Power Plant
Total
County of Jefferson, Ky
Power Plant
Canal
Cane Run
Mill Creek
Paddy's Run
Waterside
Total PP
1950
34.5
28.6
637T
1950
1.9
7.4
0.9
10.2
1955
153.6
251.2
404.8
1955
1.5
3.0
10.4
0.8
15.7
1960
262.3
368.8
631.1
1960
11.4
9.4
20.8
1965
310.7
603.3
914.0
1965
17.0
4.1
21.1
1970
198.4
1082.5
1280.9
1970
27.1
3.5
30.6
1975
117.7
1349.1
1466.8
1975
22.4
17.8
0.7
40.9
1978
108.8
1221.2
1330.0
1978
19.1
21.0
2.3
42.4
Non-Power Plant - Jefferson County, Ky
Information not on - file
           To assist in examining the historical emission trends on a regional scale, tables
have been  prepared  in which  the  states are grouped according to the appropriate EPA
regional offices (Regions I through V).  Trends in SO  and NO  emissions for each state
                                                 yv        A
along with  a summary for each grouping of the states (by regional office) are shown in the
following tables (Tables C.2.4 and C.2.5).  .  To some extent, the regional office grouping
can be  used to examine trends in  the following broad geographical areas of the country:
           Regions I and  II  -    Northeast
           Region III       -    Mid-Atlantic
           Region IV       -    Southeast
           Region V        -    Midwest
           In the northeast, SO  emissions appear to have decreased  by about  40%.from
1955 to 1978.  While the  trend may be real, it  should be noted that the data for 1950 and
1955   are   less   reliable   than  for   the  more  recent   years.     Part  of  this

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                                  79
TABLE C.2.4
HISTORICAL TRENDS IN SO2 EMISSIONS
x 103 tons
State

Conn.
Maine
Mass.
New Hamp.
Rhode Island
TOTAL

New York
New Jersey
TOTAL

Delaware
D.C.
Maryland
Penn.
Virginia
West Va.
TOTAL

Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Mississippi
Kentucky
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
TOTAL
1950

130.3
37.8
906.4
73.3
67.7
1215.5

847.0
* 1308. 8
*2155.8

105.4
32.4
398.9
* 970.2
157.2
243.5
*1907.6

139.5
225.5
119.9
46.9
113.1
306.1
44.5
97.3
1092.8
1955

139.1
45.6
956.7
89.7
80.2
1311.3

1126.0
*1486.2
*2612.20

136.0
31.0
515.5
2138.4
277 A
617.8
3716.1

522.7
350.5
163.6
43.3
404.8
347.4
84.3
369.2
2285.8
1960
EPA-
241.6
70.2
374.6
29.1
87.3
802.8
EPA-
1427.4
482.6
1965
REGION I
457.6
97.0
443.2
41.2
41.2
1080.2
REGION II
1645.4
623.4
1910.00 2268.8
EPA-
196.1
38.5
518.2
2362.2
171.4
529.7
3816.1
EPA-
613.5
341.1
198.2
41.1
631.1
232.4
115.9
731.2
2904.5
REGION III
217.8
47.9
588.1
2546.8
188.1
776.8
4365.5
REGION IV
892.3
501.6
303.0
44.6
914.0
294.4
121.7
771.5
3843.1
1970

317.3
82.0
584.4
95.9
60.1
1139.1

1455.0
590.2
2045.2

223.4
78.0
467.7
2245.7
475.2
979.7
4469.7

979.1
862.3
410.4
79.4
1280.9
533.2
185.4
988.1
5318.8
1975

191.0
67.8
362.2
75.4
24.3
720.7

1079.0
341.0
1420.0

193.6
27.1
322.3
2130.8
381.0
1220.0
4274.8

986.5
827.9
571.4
193.0
1466.8
500.5
202.3
1141.9
5890.3
1978

112
66
402.2
67.8
19.7
667.7

1041.1
323.7
1364.8

188.2
17.6
357.3
1900.0
359.9
1049.5
3872.5

762.1
685.9
707.0
264.3
1330.0
562.3
288.6
1162.8
5763.0

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                                   80



TABLE C.2.4    HISTORICAL TRENDS IN SO2 EMISSIONS (Cont'd.)
x 103 tons
State
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1978
EPA - REGION V
Illinois
Indiana
Mich.
Minn.
Ohio
Wise.
TOTAL

Arkansas
Iowa
Louisiana
Missouri
Texas
* 869.8
533.1
519.2
504.5
* 885.0
217.2
*3528.8

41.0
173.2
233.0
715.7
1011.7
2172.1
1174.2
702.7
536.4
2344.9
304.2
7234.5

36.7
258.0
261.2
*2155.1
1073.8
2452.9
1840.8
1085.5
391.8
2933.2
604.0
9308.2
OTHER
26.1
364.5
219.4
582.6
900.0
2791.4
2180.3
1521.7
419.8
3181.2
703.8
10798.2
STATES
29.9
440.8
268.7
674.9
1074.3
2506.5
1941.5
1520.9
450.7
3125.2
322.3
9867.1

37.0
370.2
318.0
1107.3
1136.8
1950.6
1980.0
1450.6
382.3
3271.2
166.6
9201.3

68.6
314.0
295.1
1174.3
1123.8
1747.2
1848.2
1117.8
379.0
3115.3
663.6
8871.1

121.6
385.0
359.0
1307.7
1244.8
*Questionable data
TABLE C.2.5    HISTORICAL TRENDS IN NO  EMISSIONS
x 103 tons
State
Conn.
Maine
Mass.
New Hamp.
Rhode Island
TOTAL
New York
New Jersey
TOTAL
1950
85
44
164
18
33
346
493
281
775

.7
.6
.2
.2
.5
.2
.6
.5
.1
1955
100
46
195
22
32
397
. 606
319
925

.0
.7
.0
.6
.9
.2
.5
.1
.6
1960
EPA
152
49
254
31
45
"332
EPA
767
362
1129
1965
- REGION I
.6 169.
.1 60.
.9 303.
.1 39.
.2 36.
.9 608.
- REGION II
.0 919.
.7 439.
.7 1358.

0
2
4
7
4
7
1
1
2
1970
202.0
75.8
359.9
63.7
55.2
1000.3
538.3
1538.3
1975
182.
72.
340.
67.
44.
"7077
869.
462.
1331.

0
7
2
5
9
3
3
0
3
1978
183.0
76.7
364.3
66.9
42.4
733.3
908.9
494.4
1403.3

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                                     81




TABLE C.2.5   HISTORICAL TRENDS IN NOv EMISSIONS (Cont'd.)
                                       A
x 103 tons
State

Delaware
D.C.
Maryland
Penn.
Va.
West Va.
TOTAL
1950

19.8
30.8
108.9
479.1
183.8
118.9
941.3
1955

30.1
34.3
138.5
693.2
228.0
217.4
1341.5
1960
EPA-
51.2
35.0
222.9
1020.2
259.9
225.0
1814.2
1965
REGION III
61.1
38.1
292.5
1143.1
361.8
322.3
2218.9
1970

71.9
58.3*
298.8
1089.2
433.5
346.9
2298.6
1975

65.2
36.5
294.9
1093.1
420.8
470.8
2381.3
1978

70.6
33.5
313.9
1120.7
435.2
462.4
2436.3
EPA- REGION IV
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
N.C.
s.c.
Tenn.
TOTAL

Illinois
Indiana
Mich.
Minn.
Ohio
Wise.
TOTAL
172.6
206.8
170.8
145.4
97.1
192.0
87.4
164.9
1237.0

600.1
296.6
318.3
164.7
498.2
196.5
2074.4
367.0
263.4
198.9
208.0
80.8
210.7
125.4
232.7
1686.9

890.4
447.2
382.9
187.6
771.5
215.4
2895.0
308.6
321.5
226.9
279.1
151.2
290.0
150.2
335.9
2063.5
EPA-
895.9
584.9
587.3
240.1
960.5
296.6
3565.3
448.3
420.8
296.7
377.6
196.4
376.2
178.2
380.3
2674.5
REGION V
1063.7
555.2
746.4
275.5
1082.3
367.4
4090.5
416.1
552.1
398.1
497.2
304.5
546.4
237.3
467.1
3418.8

1119.8
576.4
846.6
331.3
1165.1
455.0
4494.2
580.8
733.2
520.5
567.3
243.5
568.0
253.7
615.5
4082.5

1129.1
631.7
840.7
370.0
1221.0
445.7
4638.2
473.0
777.4
548.8
563.0
272.8
591.0
300.2
592.9
4119.1

1129.9
600.6
843.1
399.6
1277.1
473.2
4723.5
OTHER STATES
Arkansas
Iowa
Louisiana
Missouri
Texas
112.6
167.2
283.5
198.1
876.5
122.9
203.6
330.2
251.0
933.1
115.9
216.4
535.8
294.6
1658.0
147.6
248.1
760.1
339.1
2044.6
193.2
309.6
1016.9
424.6
2551.3
171.4
308.8
1072.0
593.6
2833.9
217.9
321.0
1593.7
563.0
3309.5
*Questionable data

-------
                                         82
apparent decrease may be due to errors in the data; however, it should be noted that a
38% reduction in SO  emissions in the northeast also is observed between 1965 and 1978.
                   A
Therefore, SO   emissions appear to have  been significantly  reduced in  the northeast
             A
during the past  28 years.
           Contrary to the apparent reduction in SO  emissions noted in  the northeast,
the states in Region III (mid-Atlantic) have generally maintained about the same level of
SO  emissions.  There appears to have been a small steady increase  between 1955 and
1970, and a small but steady decline between 1970 and 1978.
           The southeastern states  exhibit a sharp increase in SO  emissions between
                                                                A
1950 and 1978 with the data suggesting that this increase may be as high as three to five-
fold.
           In the midwest (Region V), there appears to have  been a  significant  steady
increase in SO  emissions between 1955 and 1965 and a steady decline  in these emissions
since 1965.  Levels today are about 25% higher than in 1955 in this area  of the country.
           The  states of Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas have exhibited a
steady increase in SO- emissions since 1950.  NO  emissions in Arkansas  and Iowa  appear
to have  doubled since  1955, while Louisiana and Missouri appear to have  experienced a
greater  than 50% increase and Texas about 24%.
           All the areas examined exhibit significant increases in NO  emissions over the
time period studied. This increase ranges from about a factor of two in the northeast  to
over three  in the south.  The trends also  indicate  that NO  emissions have increased
                                                          A
steadily and did not peak in the mid-1960's as did SO2 emissions.

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                                         83
C.3        IN CANADA
           Data have been developed on historical long-term trends for Canadian sulphur
dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions (1,2).  Information on production and fuel consump-
tion on a provincial basis was obtained from other federal government departments for
the various sectors  investigated.  Supplemental data such as the names of specific plants
operating in  1955  and 1965 were obtained from  internal files and  various  provincial
agencies.  For area type sources, where necessary,  census information specific  to  the
earlier time periods was used.  In many cases, emission factors were applied to the basic
data derived  from these information sources.  The factors used were  either  from U.S.
EPA's data (3), the  same factors adapted to Canadian conditions, or  Canadian factors
developed by Environment  Canada.  Generally, the methodology adopted for developing
emissions for the earlier  years  closely followed that now being utilized  for  current
emissions (4), except that actual  emission data extracted from  plant files were utilized
for all copper-nickel smelter complexes (2), and for some power generating plants (1).
           The years 1955, 1965, and 1976 were chosen to give a fair  representation of
the trends in emissions over the  past three  decades.  The data for 1955 and  1965 were
developed on a national, provincial,  and census division basis for all of Canada  and for
those sectors which, as a whole,  are thought to contribute more than 90 percent of total
emissions of SCU and NO .   The  data for  1976 have been developed in many  formats -
nationally, provincially, on a census division basis, on a 127 km x 127 km grid basis, and on
a major metropolitan area basis - and cover the full spectrum of point and area types of
emission sources (more than 70 sectors of the Canadian economy).
           Total Canadian emissions of SO2  and NO   for each of the years 1955, 1965,
and  1976 are presented in  Table C.3.1  for  the sectors of most concern at  this time.
Table C.3.2 presents the same information  but for  eastern Canada  only.   Total SO2
emissions in  Canada in 1976 were approximately 5.4 million tonnes, compared with 6.2
million tonnes in 1965 and 4.4 million tonnes  in 1955.  This fluctuation was largely due to
significant changes  in  the  emissions from  the copper-nickel  smelting industry which
represented 65%, 62%, and 47% of total SO2 emissions in the years 1955, 1965, and 1976
respectively.   Eastern  Canada has  always  contributed  the larger  portion of national
emissions,  this  share being about  96%, 87%,  and 83% in the years 1955, 1965,  and 1976.
All copper-nickel smelting complexes are located in eastern Canada (including Manitoba).
           Emissions of SO2 from power plants were at a negligible level of less than 0.1
million   tonnes  in  1955  before  increasing  to  0.2  million  tonnes  in   1965   and

-------
TABLE C.3.1
HISTORICAL EMISSIONS OF SO2 AND NOx - CANADA
Emissions (tonnes)
Sector
Cu-Ni smelters
Power plants
Other combustion*
Transportation * *
(gasoline-powered
motor vehicles)
Iron ore processing
Others
TOTAL
1955
so2
2 870 000
52 502
974 360
N/A
(4 687)
109 732
381 423
4 392 704
NOX«>
_
11 155
212 451
N/A
(63 447)
-
17 751
304 804
1965
so2
3 827 000
224 931
671 218
N/A
(9 938)
155 832
1 262 534
6 151 453
NO,'"
_
52 779
192 185
N/A
(208 681)
-
37 262
490 907
1976
so2
2 540 657
614 323
997 139
77 793
(19 469)
175 829
1 018 195
5 423 936
NOX«>
_
206 454
473 317
1 017 936
(506 691)
-
190 327
1 888 034
*    Includes residential, commercial and industrial fuel combustion.
**   Historical data for transportation sectors other than gasoline-powered motor vehicles have not yet been developed for 1955
(1)
     and 1965.
^  '   NO  expressed as NO?.
N/A Nofavailable
                                                                                                                              00
                                                                                                                              4=-

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TABLE C.3.2
               HISTORICAL EMISSIONS OF SO, AND NO  - EASTERN CANADA
                                            £f        A
Emissions (tonnes)
Sector
Cu-Ni smelters
Power plants
Other combustion*
Transportation* *
(gasoline-powered
motor vehicles)
Iron ore processing
Others
TOTAL
(% of the total Canada)
1955
so2
2 870 000
51 236
900 861
N/A
(3 449)
109 732
272 416
it 207 694
(96%)
NOX«>
_
7 870
172 952
N/A
(46 640)
-
11 905
239 367
(79%)
1965
so2
3 827 000
218 128
634 603
N/A
(7 239)
155 832
493 320
5 336 122
(87%)
NOX<"
_
42 485
149 764
N/A
(152 012)
-
27 002
371 263
(76%)
1976
so2
2 540 657
554 417
905 159
52 827
(13 237)
175 829
271 933
4 500 822
(83%)
NOX<'>
_
142 470
280 539
652 737
(347 294)
-
94 763
1 170 509
(62%)
*    Includes residential, commercial and industrial fuel combustion.

**   Historical data for transportation sectors other than gasoline-powered motor vehicles have not yet been developed for 1955
(1)

N/A
     and 1965.
NO expressed as NO-

No^available
                                                                                                                            CO

-------
                                         86
reaching 0.6 million tonnes in 1976.  Close to 90% of this total was emitted within eastern
Canada.
           Sulphur dioxide emissions from the combustion of fuels for industrial, commer-
cial, and residential purposes decreased from 1955 to 1965, largely because of the switch
away from coal  as  the primary fuel,  before increasing and  reaching  in  1976 levels
comparable to those of 1955, i.e., about  1.0 million tonnes, because of greater activity in
the industrial market.  In  1976, about 75% of other combustion  emissions  were from
industrial fuel  combustion sources.   In  1955 and 1965 this contribution was closer  to
two-thirds of the total emissions.  SO* emissions  from transportation sources  in 1976
were about equally due to gasoline-powered  motor vehicles, diesel-powered engines, and
railroads.  Emissions from gasoline-powered  motor vehicles quadrupled from 1955 to the
mid-1970's.
           The iron ore processing sector contributed close to 0.2 million tonnes of SO- in
1976, i.e., about  twice the  level of  1955.   Such  processing  involves the  mining and
beneficiation of the ore by sintering or pelletizing operations to produce a suitable blast
furnace feed.  Other industrial processes, included under "others" in Tables C.3.1 and  2,
saw their SO2 emissions increase from 0.4 million tonnes in 1955 to 1.0 million tonnes in
1976  due  largely to  increased productivity  in  various  sectors  of  the  economy.
Three-quarters of these emissions came from western Canada.
           It is difficult to measure the  uncertainty of the $©2  inventories for 1955 and
1965.   However,  because of  the source of the  data  used to  estimate emissions from
copper-nickel smelter complexes (2),  and the fact that this sector contributes  signifi-
cantly to total emissions, the confidence level of the historical emissions inventory of SO2
is greatly  increased.  An analysis made of  the  1976  inventory has  indicated that the
overall  $©2 inventory for Canada is accurate within + 30% of  the true value at a 75%
confidence level (2).
           A map of eastern Canada divided on the basis of 127 km x 127 km grid cells,
along with an indication of the magnitude of 1976 SC>2  emissions for each cell according
to five ranges of emissions, is presented in Appendix 2.
           Total  emissions  of NO  have increased  significantly,  from a  level of 0.3
                                 yV
million  tonnes in  1955 to 1.9 million  tonnes in 1976, due  largely to  increases in power
plant  and  transportation sector  emissions.    The increase  in  demand  for power and
electricity has  resulted in the building of more power plants, causing NO  emissions  to
reach a level of 0.2 million tonnes in 1976, compared to  much less than 0.05 million tonnes
in 1955, and 0.05 million  tonnes in 1965.  Gasoline-powered motor vehicle NO  emissions

-------
                                         87
were about eight times greater in 1976 than in 1955, and were at an even level with other
transportation source emissions, the majority of which are attributable to diesel-powered
engines.  NO  emissions from other combustion sources have approximately doubled over
the period investigated.
          The distribution of NO  emissions  between  eastern and  western Canada is
                                 yv
more uniform than the distribution of SO2 emissions because of the nature of the sources
involved.  Eastern Canada (including Manitoba) has contributed  79%, 76%, and 62% of
total NO  emissions in 1955, 1965, and 1976 respectively. An uncertainty analysis has not
been carried out for NOx emissions for any of the years of investigation.
          A map  depicting NO  emissions in eastern Canada in  1976 according  to the
                              A
127 km x 127 km grid array is presented in Appendix 2.

-------
REFERENCES (SECTION C.3)


1.   Environment  Canada, Air Pollution Control Directorate,  Data Analysis Division
     (Unpublished Information) (December 1980).

2.   Environment  Canada, Air Pollution Control Directorate,  Copper-Nickel Smelter
     Complexes in Canada, SO0 Emissions (1950-2000), Report EPS 3-AP-80-5 (January
     1981).                   -

3.   EPA Publication  AP-42, "Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors", third
     edition, August 1977.

4.   Environment Canada, Air Pollution Control Directorate, A Nationwide Inventory of
     Emissions of Air Contaminants (1976), Report EPS-3-AP-80-1 (January 1981).

5.   Environment  Canada, Air  Pollution  Control  Directorate,  National Inventory of
     Natural  Sources  and  Emissions of Sulphur Compounds, Report  EPS 3-AP-79-2
     (February 1980).

6.   Environment  Canada, Air  Pollution  Control  Directorate,  National Inventory of
     Natural Sources  and Emissions of Nitrogen Compounds, Report  EPS 3-AP-80-4
     (January 1981).

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                                         89
D.         PRESENT EMISSION RATES

           This chapter provides  estimates of current emissions of SO2 and NOX in both
the United States and Canada.  The data for U.S. emissions are current as of 1978, while
the data  for  Canadian emissions are for various  years.  Canadian SO2  emissions  are
current for 1979 with one major point source current for 1980.  Canadian NOX emissions
are current for  1977.   It is hoped that all emission estimates can be updated to  1979
values for the final version of this report.
D.I        In the United States
           The current emission  rates reported here for the United States are based on
estimates of  actual rates for numerous sectors of the economy.  The values used  in this
summary are  taken from  National Air Pollution Emission Estimates (U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency).  Basically, the methodology for deriving these estimates uses an
inventory of  sources, determination of  fuel  consumption,  and  air pollution emission
factors.
           The inventory  of sources, and associated  fuel consumption rates, were taken
from the National Emissions Data System (NEDS).  The data in NEDS were provided by
state  agencies as  an inventory of sources for each state.   NEDS is constantly being
updated and  the  version  used  here reflects values in the system  for February,  1980.
However, NEDS is  not complete  and some  source categories are  more accurate  than
others.  Estimates of the accuracy of this information are unavailable at this time.
           The emission factors used in developing these emission estimates are from the
U.S. EPA data (1).  The emission  factor is an  average estimate of  the rate at which a
pollutant is released to the atmosphere as a result of some activity, such as combustion or
industrial production, divided  by  the level of that activity.  The emission factors  are
estimates based on  source testing, process material balances, and engineering  appraisals.
As  a  result,  some  emission factors are  more accurate  than  others.  In general,  the
emission factors are more often applied to regional or national emission estimates, as in
this report, than to single source estimates where the inaccuracies would be considerable.
           Total emissions of SO9 and NO  for  1978 are shown in Table D.I.I,  segmented
                              £       J\
for various categories of sources.  Clearly, the largest source category of SO2 emission in
the United States is the utility category.  Utilities account for approximately two-thirds
of the SO2 emissions.  Other stationary  sources contribute nearly  one-third, with  the
remainder  from  transportation  sources.    In  terms  of  total NO   emissions,   the
                                                                   A

-------
                                         90
transportation sector is the primary source, contributing 40%, with utility and industrial
boilers emitting 52%.
           SO2 and  NOX emissions can be disaggregated on a state-by-state basis,  as
shown  in Table D.I.2.  Only 33 states  are represented in the table.   Data for the  15
western states and  Alaska and Hawaii are unavailable  at this  time.  The  values  in
Table D.I.2 represent 80% of the SO2 and 76% of the NOX  emissions for  the entire United
States.
           The emission estimates can be further disaggregated to show  emissions  by
source catagory for each state. Tables D.I.3 through D.I.8 show this information based
on 1977 data.
           Information on natural  sources of sulfur and nitrogen emissions in the United
States is not available at this time.

REFERENCES
1.   EPA  Publication AP-42,  "Compilation of Air  Pollutant Emission Factors", third
     edition, August 1977.

-------
                                   91




TABLE D.I.I    CURRENT (1978) EMISSIONS OF SO2 AND NOX - U.S. (106 tonnes)
Category
Utilities
Industrial Boilers
Industrial Processes
Transportation
Residential/Commercial
Solid Waste Disposal
Miscellaneous
Total
S02(%
17.6
3.2
4.1
0.8
1.3
0.0
0.0
27.0
of total)
(65%)
(12%)
(15%)
(3%)
(5%)
(0%)
(0%)
(100%)
NOX
7.2
4.9
0.8
9.4
0.8
0.1
0.1
23.3
(% of total]
(31%)
(21%)
(3.5%)
(40%)
(3.5%)
(0.5%)
(0.5%)
(100%)

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                                     92



TABLE D.1.2    1978 SO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS BY STATE (103tons)
State
Alabama
Arkansas
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
SO2
762.1
121.6
112.0
188.2
17.6
685.9
707.0
17*7.2
18*8.2
385.0
1330.0
359.0
66.0
357.3
*02.2
1117.8
379.0
26*. 3
1307.7
67.8
323.7
10*1.1
562.3
3115.3
1900.0
19.7
288.6
1162.8
12**. 8
_
359.9
10*9.5
663.6
NOX
*73.0
217.9
183.0
70.6
33.5
777.*
5*8.8
1129.9
600.6
321.0
563.0
1593.7
76.7
313.9
36*. 3
8*3.1
399.6
272.8
563.0
66.9
*9*.*
908.9
591.0
1277.1
1120.7
*2.*
300.2
592.9
3309.5
_
*35.2
*62.*
*73.2
TOTAL                             23957.2               19*20.6



                                   or 21.73 million tonnes   17.62 million tonnes

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                                      93




TABLE D.1.3    1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - UTILITIES (lO* tons)

National*
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
S02
19797
780
2.3
75
50
185
74
51
82
10
757
578
39
0.011
1369
1493
234
125
1526
59
10
228
143
9.2
175
179
1265
24
28
35
92
127
145
508
426
83
2688
3
0
1476
3.6
181
33
1091
249
44
NOX
7.284
213
6.0
136
34
174
75
42
28
8
211
140
21
0.024
602
462
83
146
346
183
3
77
88
230
81
53
315
34
33
87
36
83
118
262
195
48
529
101
0
391
2.6
97
23
229
490
24

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TABLE D.1.3    1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - UTILITIES (103 tons) (Cont'd)

Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
SO2
0.007
259
18
1048
470
129
NOX
0.015
104
51
263
128
99

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                                    95




TABLE D.1.4   1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - INDUSTRIAL BOILERS (1Q3 tons)

National*
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
SO2
3254.7
101
3
3
37
135
7
6
12
4
67
50
11
6
101
154
48
2
43
78
94
31
70
124
47
16
20
10
2
2
16
36
9
198
97
4
325
5
15
520
6
83
0
94
123
14
NOX
1846.4
41
3
4
20
98
3
6
4
2
38
25
2
14
51
123
27
14
17
217
23
21
51
69
21
15
8
6
5
3
3
33
5
52
32
2
125
5
38
84 .
2
33
0
53
232
8

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                                    96



TABLE D.I.4   1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - INDUSTRIAL BOILERS (1Q3 tons) (Cont'd)

Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
SO2
0.6
115
49
89
112
12
NOX
0.5
40
38
97
43
6

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                                   97



TABLE D.I.5    1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES (1Q3 tons)

National*
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
SO2
5636.8
108
0
1132
26
219
19
0.5
31
0
115
29
10
31
126
60
36
46
18
177
14
53
1
133
26
32
141
162
14
286
0.9
67
408
46
35
20
90
92
12
355
0
21
4
60
878
131
NOX
1020.5
24
0.4
4
2
129
4
0.1
3
0
24
12
3
.7
45
29
4
20
9
122
2
16
0
17
4
13
17
4
4
3
0.3
20
7
9
7
0.9
20
12
2
41
0
7
1
15
193
10

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                                     98



TABLE D.1.5    1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES (10^ tons) (Cont'd)

Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
S02
0
24
171
58
41
21
NOX
0
14
23
12
47
5

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                                   99



TABLE D.I.6    1978 U.S. EMISSIONS - TRANSPORTATION (tonnes)

National
Alabama
Arkansas
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
TSP
6 286 087
110 642
63 752
81 687
16 283
15 214
298 590
155 564
286 008
155 893
60 897
90 950
113 812
23 288
113 453
158 713
269 852
103 899
53 514
151 023
21 252
221 443
340 260
143 885
321 708
282 530
28 369
76 807
129 395
455 232
9 794
135 464
17 147
87 749
S0x
955 767
25 892
9 921
6 622
2 823
1 197
30 889
20 212
30 472
18 838
9 805
14 480
43 953
3 727
14 735
10 765
46 761
14 320
12 257
17 041
1 627
27 381
34 575
19 465
36 835
38 405
1 679
9 897
19 505
111 334
1 383
19 047
5 663
13 941
N0x
9 355 943
205 541
128 555
100 103
28 039
17 111
362 730
270 023
398 479
255 218
135 773
189 160
202 170
50 419
152 485
161 017
350 936
198 444
123 978
235 436
29 361
248 805
419 157
284 714
433 805
435 991
29 380
136 873
250 647
704 565
21 363
237 600
69 521
198 364
HC
12 549 131
241 841
144 749
152 975
35 773
24 236
557 336
323 335
518 854
320 855
157 697
204 932
240 994
59 136
207 733
278 951
482 683
254 163
129 197
306 040
41 446
375 900
634 875
334 094
507 312
531 822
53 827
173 858
274 032
897 667
22 453
286 300
51 699
231 296
CO
97 801 165
1 754 292
1 049 778
1 235 652
275 377
202 223
4 269 119
2 430 711
4 112 325
2 519 201
1 218 841
1 508 128
1 754 474
428 545
1 609 040
2 314 969
3 869 142
1 947 578
943 935
2 367 375
330 945
3 069 379
5 114 336
2 477 393
4 582 071
4 196 933
444 384
1 258 446
2 038 819
6 744 339
162 963
2 147 609
326 512
1 657 454
SOURCE:  National Emissions Data System (NEDS).

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                                    100



TABLE D.1.7   1978 U.S. EMISSIONS - COMMERCIAL/RESIDENTIAL (tonnes)

National
Alabama
Arkansas
Connecticut
Delaware
Dist. of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin
TSP
353 760
8 504
4 249
3 202
640
612
65 291
7 298
16 606
12 438
8 324
5 927
5 739
2 719
3 806
7 794
19 415
11 634
6 360
10 158
1 836
10 063
16 216
11 169
21 098
4 473
1 187
7 676
9 366
12 820
1 479
6 786
3 947
11 907
S0x
23 406
407
259
131
53
179
1 126
445
1 186
877
634
398
287
182
257
420
2 508
426
339
429
123
2 074
1 453
865
13 046
1 291
48
390
507
784
95
590
237
995
NOX
100 672
2 314
1 375
686
229
214
1 870
2 646
2 981
3 718
2 134
2 192
1 723
776
1 351
1 501
15 557
2 211
1 831
2 100
505
3 348
4 718
4 106
4 789
1 531
208
2 230
2 601
3 539
444
2 547
1 434
3 208
HC
742 054
18 286
8 417
7 103
1 064
477
9 906
13 833
39 490
25 938
17 083
11 170
11 753
5 579
7 199
17 869
41 699
18 010
13 403
23 533
3 799
12 415
27 866
20 296
45 654
1 832
2 866
16 185
20 165
26 742
2 995
12 661
7 505
23 524
CO
2 152 169
18 285
23 968
20 738
29 089
7 482
28 251
39 126
116 353
75 007
49 374
32 107
33 316
16 072
20 439
52 370
115 990
52 287
38 451
68 831
10 965
33 673
79 280
57 248
132 856
15 499
8 403
46 695
59 487
76 609
8 690
35 788
21 235
67 860
SOURCE: National Emissions Data System (NEDS).

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                                    101




TABLE D.I.8   1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL (1Q3 tons)

National
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
SO2
51
0.*
0.0
0.7
0.5
1.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.6
1.6
0.5
0.2
0.1
1.3
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.9
3.3
0.5
0.6
1.7
2.9
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.1
0.3
2.0
0.3
2.0
0.2
5.3
1.5
0.1
2.4
0.2
0.3
2.3
, 0.1
0.4
0.1
1.4
7.0
0.2
0.1
NOX
138
2.7
0.5
2.2
1.9
5.3
0.8
0.8
0.3
0.6
3.1
3.1
0.4
0.7
3.1
4.2
2.2
1.4
3.0
2.7
2.5
1.7
4.5
16.4
2.3
2.6
2.5
0.7
1.4
2.5
1.5
3.2
0.7
8.4
5.7
0.5
6.7
6.7
1.6
6.3
0.3
2.4
0.7
3.6
5.3
0.5
0.4

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                                    102




TABLE D.1.8   1977 U.S. EMISSIONS - SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL (1Q3 tons) (Cont'd)

Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
SO2
1.0
0.5
0.3
1.*
0.1
NOX
3.1
2.1
1.6
3.9
0.*

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                                         103
D.2        IN CANADA

           The Canadian data base includes estimates of actual emissions for more than
70 sectors of the economy.  The methodology  used to derive these estimates is described
in detail for each of the sectors investigated  in Reference 1.  Basically, for point source
types of emissions, substantial information is extracted from government surveys  made of
individual plants  or installations and often based on stack testing at the source.  In other
cases where such firsthand information is not  available,  and for  area source types of
emissions, the emission  factor  approach is used.   In these  instances,  either U.S. EPA
emission  factors  (2), or these factors corrected for Canadian  conditions,  or emission
factors developed by Environment Canada are utilized.  Information regarding  production
and  fuel  consumption by  the  various  sources  comes  from other federal  government
departments and is supplemented by data from a number of industrial associations.
           On  a   national  basis the  overall  accuracy  of  the current Canadian SO*
emissions inventory is estimated to be + 30% at a 75% confidence level (3). The accuracy
of the information varies widely between each  sector,  and within each sector  investi-
gated; it is far greater for  the major point sources (e.g., Cu-Ni smelters), which together
represent more than half of Canadian emissions, than  for  less significant  sources.  An
uncertainty analysis  has  not  been  carried  out  for  NO   emissions, but as  a  first
approximation, the overall accuracy of the NO  data base is less  than that of  the SO,
                                             J\                                     £
data because the  important contributors of such emissions (e.g., transportation  sources)
are quite different.
           The data base for present emission rates in Canada includes a mixture of data
covering the period 1976 through 1980.  For sulphur dioxide all  area source information
represents 1976 annual emission  rates (1).  Major point sources are at their 1979 annual
emission rates and the most important Canadian copper-nickel smelter complex, repre-
senting fully 20% of eastern Canada emissions, is shown at its 1980 emission  rate (3). On
a  weighted emissions  basis, the aggregated  SO2  data base  closely represents actual
emissions for the  year 1979.
           For nitrogen oxides, all area source  type emissions  are from the  1976 base
year (1).  Major point sources are at their 1979  annual emission rate (3). On a weighted
emission  basis,  the aggregated  Canadian NO  data base probably represents actual
emission rates in  1977.
           Table  D.2.1 gives the total national emissions for SO7  and NO prorated on the
                                                            ff        A
basis of the usual five  categories of emission sources.   Roughly two-thirds  of SO2
emissions in Canada are  contributed  by  industrial processes;  the  other  third  results

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                                      104
TABLE D.2.1    CURRENT (1976-1980) EMISSIONS OF SO2 AND NOx - CANADA

                                Emissions (tonnes)
Category                        SO, (% of total)            NOV(1) (% of total)
                                   £                         A
Industrial processes               3  085 412  (63.4%)            38 213  (2.0%)
Fuel combustion/                 1  698 683  (34.9%)          693 675  (36.5%)
 stationary sources
Transportation                       77 793  (1.6%)         1 017 936  (53.5%)
Solid waste incineration                3 245  (0.1%)             5 094  (0.3%)
Miscellaneous                            -                   147 020  (7.7%)
TOTAL                          4  865 133  (100%)         1 901 938  (100%)
      expressed as NO,.
TABLE D.2.2    CURRENT (1976-1980) EMISSIONS OF SO9 AND NO - EASTERN
               CANADA                            *        X
Emissions (tonnes)
SO2 (% of total)
Cu-Ni smelters
Power plants
Other combustion*
Transportation
(gasoline-powered
motor vehicles)
Iron ore processing
Others
2 021 201
641 638
905 159
52 827
(13 237)
198 480
271 933
(49.4%)
(15.7%)
(22.1%)
(1.3%)
(4.9%)
(6.6%)
NOV(1) (% of total)
J\
.
156 374
280 539
652 737
(347 294)
-
94 763

(13.2%)
(23.7%)
(55.1%)

(8.0%)
TOTAL                          4 091 238                 1 184 413
(% of total Canada)                          (84%)                     (62%)

* Includes residential, commercial and industrial fuel combustion.
(  'NO expressed as NO,.

-------
                                         105
from the combustion of fuels in stationary sources.  This latter category of sources is also
responsible  for about  one-third of the total  NO   emissions in Canada.   Transportation
                                              j\
sources account for more than half of NO  emissions and close to 50% of this is due to the
                                      A
gasoline-powered motor vehicle alone.  From 1976 to 1979-80, there was a reduction of
about 10% in total Canadian SO- emissions which was largely due to a significant drop in
non-ferrous  smelter emissions.
          Table  D.2.2 presents total  emissions for eastern Canada only (east of the
Manitoba-Saskatchewan border) over the  1976-80 period for  the sectors of most concern
at this time. Eastern Canada's emissions  account for close to 85% of total SO2 emissions
and about two-thirds of NOX emissions.   Close to half (49%)  of the SO2 emissions in
eastern Canada are  concentrated in six copper-nickel smelters located in Manitoba,
Ontario and Quebec.  About one quarter of the SO2 emissions result  from the  combustion
of fuels  for  industrial, commercial,  and  residential purposes;  the industrial source
contributes  about 75% of these emissions (1).  Power plants are responsible  for a little
more  than  15% of eastern  Canada SO2  emissions  and close  to three-quarters of  such
emissions come from power plants located in southern Ontario (1,3).   Iron ore  processing,
i.e.,  the  mining  and  beneficiation of ores  by sintering or  pelletizing operations, is
responsible for close to 5% of eastern Canada SO* emissions.
          A large part  (55%) of eastern Canada's NOx emissions is  contributed  by
transportation sources. Here,  gasoline-powered motor vehicles, diesel-powered engines
and railroads contribute about half, one-third, and 10%, respectively of such emissions (1).
The second major sector of NO   emissions in eastern Canada is the combustion of fuels in
industrial, commercial, and residential  applications.  This sector contributes about  one-
quarter of NO  emissions (same contribution as for SO2 emissions);  59% of the sector's
emissions come from industrial fuel combustion sources (1).  This is followed by power
plants, which generate about 13% of eastern Canada's NO  emissions, two-thirds of which
                                                      X
are from southern Ontario installations (1,3).
          The  eastern  Canada  data  are  further  prorated on a   grid  array  of
127 km x  127 km  squares,  which is the basic dimension for the emissions and meteo-
rological data used in the Atmospheric  Environment Service long-range transport model.
Total  (point and area) emissions of SO2 and NO ,  for each  of  the grid  cells in eastern
Canada,  are listed  in  Appendix 2.  Figure D.2.1 and Table D.2.3 present an  aggregated
version of the SO2 data found  in Appendix 2.   Here, the geographical area representing
eastern Canada has  been  divided into  17 defined  source regions, delineated by  the
boundaries of the  127-km grid cells.  These source regions have been defined to represent

-------
             54
26
                                                                                                                     8O
                                                                                                                               O
                                                                                                                               a
          FIGURE D. 2 .1
    DEFINED CANADIAN SOURCE REGIONS - 127 km * 127 km GRID

REGIONS SOURCES CANADIENNES DEFINIES - GRILLE DE 127 km * 127 km

-------
                                    107

TABLE D.2.3   SO2 EMISSIONS FROM DEFINED CANADIAN SOURCE REGIONS -
              1976-80 DATA BASE
Source Region
Flin Flon, Manitoba
Thompson, Manitoba
Manitoba (excluding 1 & 2)
Northern Ontario (excluding 5 & 6)
Wawa, Ontario
Sudbury area, Ontario
Toronto region, Ontario*
Southern Ontario (excluding 7)
Noranda, Quebec
Montreal region, Quebec**
Southern Quebec (excluding 10)
Murdochville, Quebec
Northern Quebec (excluding 9 & 12)
New Brunswick
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
Newfoundland and Labrador
TOTAL
Map Identifier
1
2
3
4
5
6
• 7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
"17

Emissions (tonnes x 10 )
152.2
334.0
27.1
76.6
182.3
1 006.9
245.2*
440.6
540.7
292.5**
96.3
73.1
83.5
199.5
213.8
19.0
54.3
4 037.6
*    Metro-Toronto only   =    207.0  x 10- tonnes
**   Metro-Montreal only  =    261.1  x 10 tonnes


TABLE D.2.4   SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CANADIAN SO, AND NOV EMISSIONS
                                                   £        yv


                            % of annual emissions
                 December-February  March-May June-August  September-November
Category
Industrial processes
Fuel combustion/
stationary sources
Transportation
Incineration
Miscellaneous
so2
27
34

22
25
-
N0x
25
34

24
25
-
so2
25
22

25
25
-
.x
25
22

25
25
21
:S02
23
18

27
25
-
NOX
25
19

26
25
77
so2
25
26

26
25
-
N0x
25
25

25
25
1
Total (weighted)      29       25     24   23   22     28     25        24

-------
                                         108
either major point  sources, areas comprising large metropolitan centres, or significant
geographic portions of provinces.
           Seasonal variations data for use in detailed  air  quality analysis have been
developed for both  SO- and NO  emissions for all contributing sectors (3).  In summary,
emissions are found to  vary  considerably from season to season  for the fuel combustion
sectors, the winter (December - February) emissions being about 85% greater  than the
summer  (3une - August)  emissions.   The other  categories show  little variation; for
example, the  overall winter  emissions from industrial processes are about  15% greater
than the summer emissions. The national summary is presented in Table D.2.4
           Nationwide inventories of natural emissions of sulphur  and nitrogen compounds
into the atmosphere  and an evaluation of  their contribution to the overall sulphur and
nitrogen burden of ambient air have been carried out for Canada (4,5).  Data on estimates
of natural  emissions  were obtained through a  literature  review  of  sulphur and nitrogen
release mechanisms normally associated with biological and other  natural processes.  Such
data  are  relatively  sparse  and in some  cases contradictory,  making some  reported
estimates of source emissions quite speculative. The emission estimates are likely to be
accurate only  to within an order of magnitude.
           The  principal sulphur compound emitted by  biological  processes  into the
atmosphere is hydrogen sulphide.  Others  that  have been  identified include:   carbon
disulphide, carbonyl  sulphide,    dimethyl  disulphide and  methyl mercaptan.   Biogenic
sources include  soils, water  bodies, and vegetation.  Forest fires emit  sulphur dioxide
while sea and lake sprays release sulphates. The total emissions of sulphur from natural
sources in  Canada are estimated at about  500 000 tonnes per year, (i.e., about 20% of
total  anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide).  The greatest natural sulphur emissions
occur  on  the Atlantic  and  Pacific coasts and  in Ontario  and Quebec.   Table D.2.5
summarizes this  information.
           Included in the more important nitrogenous compounds emitted to the atmos-
phere from natural sources are N2O, NO , NH,, and aliphatic amines.  Principal emitting
sources are soils and marine waters for N-O, soils and lightning for NO , soils and animal
wastes for NH.,, and animal wastes for aliphatic amines.   Nitrogen oxides emitted  from
forest fires are  less important.  The total emissions of nitrogen  from natural sources in
Canada are estimated at about 2 100 000 tonnes per year, (i.e., roughly three  and one half
times  the  total anthropogenic emissions of  nitrogen   oxides  (expressed as  NO-)).
Table D.2.6 summarizes  the information on emissions of  natural nitrogen compounds in
Canada.

-------
TABLE D.2.5
SUMMARY OF NATURAL EMISSIONS OF SULPHUR INTO THE ATMOSPHERE IN CANADA (tonnes of S per
year)(1T
Biogenic Emissions
Province/Territory Soils Marine
Newfoundland 2 187
Prince Edward Island 72
Nova Scotia 609
New Brunswick 761
Quebec 23 888 36 692**
Ontario 65 672 4 381
Manitoba 47 860
Saskatchewan 17 217
Alberta 31 062
British Columbia 29 515 10 465
Yukon 4 950
Northwest Territories 22 770 92***
Canada 246 563 51 631
Canadian total - 509 406 tonnes
Other Natural Sources*
Lakes
203
-
102
100
1 471
3 543
2 650
2 434
654
810


11 967

Sea Salt
Vegetation SO^
138
200
226
278
1 772 101 200**
2 698
552
1 245
1 016
782 27 300

60 400***
8 907 188 900

Soil Forest
Dust Fires
81

3
5
60
55
203
164
64
500**** 171

194
500 1 000

* Does not include 7 tonnes from lake sulphate.
** Includes Atlantic Provinces and Quebec.
*** Includes Yukon and Northwest Territories.
**** Includes Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.
          All
     figures expressed as
S per year.
get the equivalent SO_ emissions, above
          figures must be multiplied by 2 (for example, total Canadian natural sulphur emissions expressed as
          S02 are 509 406 x 2 = 1 018 812 tonnes).

-------
TABLE D.2.6
SUMMARY OF NATURAL EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN INTO THE ATMOSPHERE IN CANADA
(tonnes of N per year)
Compound Class
Province/Territory
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
British Columbia
Yukon
Northwest Territories
Canada
N20
40 801
9 032
1 279
12 236
168 315
135 070
70 686
69 539
45 614
69 832
18 739
97 759
738 902
N0x
52 484
12 038
1 748
16 300
212 196
165 878
75 917
68 665
39 485
72 108
15 281
91 328
823 428
NH3
1 975
2 981
1 143
4 217
18 044
52 432
61 279
130 740
115 228
99 474
8 389
33 393
529 295
Amines
61
48
62
64
576
974
408
1 900
1 278
550
106
336
6 363
Total
95 321
24 099
4 232
32 817
399 131
354 354
208 290
270 844
201 605
241 964
42 515
222 816
2 097 988

     must be multiplied by 46/14 (for example, total Canadian natural nitrogen emissions expressed as NO9 are
     2 097 988 x 46/14 = 6 893 389 tonnes).                                                         ^

-------
                                        Ill

References (Section D.2)
1.   Environment Canada, Air Pollution Control Directorate, A Nationwide Inventory of
     Emissions of Air Contaminants (1976), Report EPS-3-AP-80-1 (January 1981).

2.   EPA Publication AP-42, "Compilation of  Air  Pollutant Emission Factors",  third
     edition, August 1977.

3.   Environment Canada, Air  Pollution  Control  Directorate, Data Analysis  Division
     (Unpublished Information) (December 1980).

4.   Environment Canada,  Air  Pollution Control Directorate, National Inventory of
     Natural Sources  and Emissions of Sulphur Compounds,  Report EP5-3-AP-79-2
     (February 1980).

5.   Environment Canada,  Air  Pollution Control Directorate, National Inventory of
     Natural Sources  and  Emissions  of Nitrogen  Compounds,  Report EPS-3-AP-80-4
     (January 1981).

-------
                                        112
E          PROJECTED EMISSIONS

           This chapter provides estimates of projected emissions of SO9 and NO  for all
                                                                    £*        j{
sectors of concern in both the United  States and Canada.  Several models and scenarios
are used to depict a range of projected  emissions to the year 1980 and/or 2000.
E.1        IN THE UNITED STATES
           Emissions have been projected by the Department of Energy for  all sectors
using  the  Strategic  Environmental  Assessment  System  (SEAS)  model,  and  by  the
Environmental  Protection Agency  using several  models.    Projected  emissions  are
presented in Tables E.I.I through E.I.4.
           The results from  these  models differ somewhat, as would  be expected,  but
agree on the basic conclusion that electric utilities are, and will remain, the dominant
man-made emitters of both sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in the United States.
           Because of their impact on national emissions, more sophisticated models were
used to evaluate the  impact of various hypothetical emission regulations for power plants.
(1)   Description of Methodologies
           Utility  emissions  were projected using two  models:   the Utility  Simulation
Model  (USM), developed and operated by Teknekron Research, Incorporated (TRI), and the
Coal and Electric  Utilities Model (CEUM) developed and run by ICF Incorporated.  Both
models are capable of projecting future energy use,  by fuel type, for the  electric utility
industry, given a baseline  energy scenario. The models also calculate the cost of emission
controls, emissions and relative cost effectiveness of  control, on a dollar per  tonne of
collected pollutant basis.
           The two models differ in basic design.  CEUM uses representative units which
behave according to  model constraints and optional  economics.  USM begins with a data
base including all  existing power  plant units in the continental U.S.,  and  scales up to
future  demand by  simulating plant additions.  Both models  can simulate the choice of
different coal supply sources and concomitant transportation paths.
           Each model was run to establish a benchmark "base case." This benchmark is
compliance with current  air  pollution regulations in State Implementation Plans (SIPS)
and, for newer plants, compliance with New Source  Performance Standards (NSPS).  The
analyses  were made  of various feasible  pollution control scenarios.   Except for  three
common regulatory scenarios, different scenarios were assessed by each  model, depending
on the strengths of the particular models. Analysis  to date has focused on sulfur dioxide
emissions, although nitrogen oxide emissions will also be evaluated.

-------
                                    113

TABLE E.1.1    NATIONAL SO  PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING SEAS MODEL
              (106 tons)    x

Utility Boiler
Industrial
Boiler/Process Heat
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Other Energy
Transportation
TOTAL
Source: SEAS - NEP III
1975
20.2
3.6
2.1
1.6
0.6
28.1
Scenario, high energy supply.
TABLE E.I. 2 NATIONAL NO PROJECTED EMISSIONS
(106 tons) X

Utility Boiler
Industrial
Boiler/Process Heat
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Other Energy
Transportation
TOTAL
1975
6.3
2.5
-
1.0
8.5
18.3
1985
19.1
5.4
0.8
1.5
0.9
27.7

USING SEAS MODEL
1985
7.8
4.9
-
1.6
7.8
22.1
1990
19.8
5.5
0.8
0.4
1.1
27.6


1990
8.6
3.9
-
1.7
6.5
20.7
Source:    SEAS - NEP III Scenario, high energy supply.

-------
TABLE E.I.3    NATIONAL SO PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING COMBINED MODELS
               (106 tons)     X

Utility Boiler
Industrial
Boiler/Process Heat
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
TOTAL
Source: These emission
1980
19.5
5.9
2.0
1.4
0.9
29.7
estimates
1985
17.9
5.7
0.77
1.4
0.9
26.7
based on 1980
1990
18.6
6.8
0.60
1.2
0.9
28.1
trends but projec
1995
19.0
8.6
0.56
0.9
0.9
30.0
ted with % cl
2000
18.5
10.3
0.52
0.6
0.9
30.8
hange of
          models (utility - TRI; industrial ICF; RES/COM - SEAS; Transportation Ann
          Arbor), NF smelters from an actual unit-by-unit survey.


TABLE E.I.4    NATIONAL NO  PROJECTED EMISSIONS USING COMBINED MODELS
               (106 tons)     x

Utility Boiler
Industrial
Boiler/Process Heat
Non-Ferrous Smelters
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
TOTAL
1980
6.2
6.2
0.0
0.9
9.0
22.3
1985
6.8
6.5
0.0
0.9
8.3
22.5
1990
7.6
6.9
0.0
0.8
8.6
23.9
1995
8.4
7.6
0.0
0.8
9.4
26.2
2000
9.2
8.4
0.0
0.7
10.2
28.5
Source:    These emission estimates based on 1980 trends but projected with % change
          of models (utility - TRI; industrial ICF; RES/COM - SEAS; Transportation Ann
          Arbor), NF smelters from an actual unit-by-unit survey.

-------
                                        115
           The regulatory scenarios modeled by ICF and TRI are presented in Tables E.I.5
and E.I.6.  Baseline energy scenarios are presented in Table E.I.7.  Other key assumptions
are identified in Table E.I.8.

TABLE E.1.5         ICF SCENARIO RUNS

     Run 1 —   Base Case,
     Run 2 —   10 percent rollback of emissions in the 31-state  Acid Rain region,
     Run 3 ~   30 percent rollback of emissions in the 31-state  Acid Rain region,
     Run 4 --   10 percent rollback of emissions in each of the 45 CEUM demand
                regions,
     Run 5 —   30 percent rollback of emissions in each of the 45 CEUM demand
                regions,
     Run 6 ~   4.0 Ib SO.,/10  Btu emission cap, and
                        ^   £
     Run 7 —   2.0 Ib SO2/10  Btu emission cap.
           Results from examination of seventeen hypothetical regulatory scenarios are
presented in Tables E.1.9-E.1.13.  Tables E.I.9 and E.I. 10  present  results  on scenarios
examined by both models. Tables E.I. 11 through E.I. 13 are specific to each model. These
results should be considered  preliminary in nature.  They have not  undergone intensive
review by the sponsoring agencies.
           The results indicate that it is feasible  to obtain reductions in power plant SO-
emissions in excess of 30% without increasing the nationwide average price of electricity
to consumers by more than about 2%.  Significant reductions can be obtained for about
$200-300 per ton of SO2 removed.
           The USM model results indicate that the 30% reduction could be achieved with
an expenditure of less  than  one billion dollars for capital  (compare Table E.I. 13 and
Figure E.I.2 for scenarios S50, SC2 and RMR).  The CEUM model forecasts capital costs
of three to seven billion dollars by 1990 for the same reduction in emissions, depending on
how efficiently the reduction is obtained (see Tables E.I.9 and E.I. 10). The most capital-
intensive approach analyzed, the 2 Ib cap, would cost about $10 billion by 1990, according
to CEUM.
           The total use of  coal does  not appear to be  affected by those  control
strategies considered.  However, some control strategies do appear to reduce the demand

-------
TABLE E.1.6
      SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONS FOR TRI ANALYSIS
Scenario
Regulatory Strategy
Units Affected
BNC


BSC


BSS


set


SC2


S50




RMR
1979 status quo


SIP compliance


Strict SIP compliance


it Ib SO2/rnBtu Cap


2 Ib SO2/mBtu Cap


50% SIP Rollback
50% SIP Rollback and
50% minimum removal
R35
35 year lifetimes for
all fossil-fuel-fired units
all SIP units continue to emit SO- at the rate existing in 1979;
units with planned or operating scrubbers are allowed to do so

all SIP units are required to meet promulgated regulations by 1985;
compliance is determined by annual averaging of specified regulation

all SIP units are required to meet promulgated regulations by 1985;
compliance is determined by state specified periods of averaging time

all SIP units are required to meet promulgated regulations by 1985;
no SIP limit is allowed to exceed 4 Ib per million Btu

all SIP units are required to meet promulgated regulations by 1985;
no SIP limit is allowed to exceed 2 Ib per million Btu

all SIP units greater than or equal to 100 megawatts, on-line beginning
in 1950, are required to comply with their promulgated SIP limit
reduced by 50 percent (none to fall below 0.8 Ib/mBtu); all SIP
units less than 100 megawatts are required to comply with SIP limit

all SIP units greater than or equal to 100 megawatts, on-line beginning
in 1950, are required to comply with their promulgated SIP limit
reduced by 50 percent (none to fall below 0.8 Ib/mBtu), and  remove
a minimum of 50 percent of the potential SO2/mbtu in the coal
entering utility boiler; all SIP units less than TOO megawatts are
required to comply with SIP limit; all oil-fired units meeting the first
criterion meet SIP limits reduced by 50 percent

all fossil-fuel-fired units (oil, gas, coal) are retired at 35 years of
age; baseline SIP compliance required

-------
TABLE E.1.6
      SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONS FOR TRI ANALYSIS (Cont'd)
Scenario
Regulatory Strategy
Units Affected
LED
UCW
CWF
S30
Least Emissions Dispatch
Universal Coal Washing
Coal Washing Floors
30% SIP Rollback
               (AIRTEST model only)
all units are dispatched according to SO-
rather than least operating cost; baselint
required
emission rate classes
SIP compliance
all  SIP units  are required baseline  SIP compliance; if the unit is
complying as of 1979 status quo  - it is still required to use physical
coal cleaning (level 1); if not complying as of 1979 - the unit is allowed
all  compliance  options,  including  fuel-switching,  not  including
scrubbing of raw coal or blending of raw  coal; in all cases, in order for
cleaned coal to  be  chosen -it must  contain at least  a  10-percent
reduction in potential $©2 emissions relative to raw coal

all SIP units are required baseline SIP compliance; all coal above  mine-
state  specified SO2/mBtu floors is required to be cleaned to physical
coal cleaning level 1; coal use and compliance options are the  same as
in the Universal  Coal  Washing scenario, with  the omission of  the
constraint requiring cleaned coal to be 10 percent lower than raw coal
in potential SO2 emissions

all SIP units greater than or equal to 100 megawatts, on-line beginning
in 1950, are required to  comply with  their promulgated SIP limit
reduced by 30 percent (none to fall below 0.8 Ib/mBtu); all SIP
units less than 100 megawatts are required to comply with SIP
RSC
NX7
1979 NSPS compliance
for SIP units

(AIRTEST model only)

0.7 Ib/mBtu NO  limit
(AIRTEST mode? only)
all SIP units greater than or equal to 100 megawatts, on-line beginning
in  1950,  are  required  to   comply  with  the  1979  New  Source
Performance Standards; all SIP units less than 100 megawatts are
required to comply with SIP limit

all SIP units are required SIP compliance and 0.7 Ib/mBtu NO  limit

-------
TABLE E.I.7         ENERGY CONSUMPTION COMPARISON DOE/TRI/ICF/(QUADS)
Fuel
Oil
Gas
Total Oil

-------
                                        119
TABLE E.I.8         KEY ASSUMPTIONS
     Energy projections provided by DOE (attached)
     Utility lifetimes
           ICF  -    « Years for All
           TRI  -    45 Years for Coal
                     40 Years for Gas
                     35 Years for Oil, Nuclear
     UOB plants converted to coal - must comply with existing coal SIP's
     ICF constrained coal use by $2000/kW penalty for all new construction
     Nuclear capacity factor 65% - TRI; 70% - ICF
     SIP and strategy compliance by 1985
     Annual average SIP's (defined by EPA)
     Credit for
                Overcomplying with SIP's
                Sulfur Retention in Ash
     Pollution control costs defined by EPA (with input from DOE)
for relatively high-sulfur coals in northern Appalachia and the midwest in comparison to
the base case.  (See Tables E.1.9, E.I.10, and E.I.12).
           Other model results, not reflected in these national summaries, include:
     Most power plant emissions through 1995 come from existing power plants.  More
     stringent new source requirements will not significantly reduce SO2 emissions.
     Additional SO2 control in the 31 eastern states is about an order of magnitude more
     cost effective than controlling the western states.  However, western coal is of such
     high quality, some strategies (e.g., 4 Ib cap) did not affect the west at all.
     Increasing  the optimization  area reduces nation control costs.   That is, a 30%
     reduction in the  eastern states is about one-third cheaper if state  boundaries  are
     ignored and the least expensive strategy is pursued, instead of obtaining the same
     overall reduction by reducing emissions in each state  by 30%.
     Finally, it should be noted that NO   control  strategies  and combined NO /SO,
                                        A                                    y\   £*
     strategies  will also  be  assessed.   One  strategy  in  particular, use of Limestone

-------
TABLE E.1.9
1990 FORECASTS FOR COMMON SCENARIOS
RUN DESCRIPTION
BASE CASE

SO- Emissions (10 tons/yr)
Annualized Costs ($1980 X 109/yr)
% Change over Base Case
Cost Effectiveness ($/ton removed)
Electricity Rate Increase (%)
Wet FGD (GW)
Dry FGD (GW)
Capacity Penalty (GW)
**Coal Production Changes (10 tons)
Northern Appalachia
Central and Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies and Southwest
Coal Use (1015 Btu/yr)
Total Capital Costs ($1980 X 109)
UMS
18.6
159.6
-
-
-
155.0*

1.8

135.0
151.0
114.0
163.0
73.0
18
NA
CEUM
18.9
110.6
-
-
-
53.0
28.0
2.1

209.0
340.0 '
174.0
260.0
152.0
17
308
4 Ib CAP
USM
16.7
159.9
+0.2
160.0
0.2
159.0*

1.8

-16.0
+21.0
-8.0
-1.0
+5.0
18
NA
CEUM
16.2
111.3
+0.6
254.0
0.4
67.0
27.0
2.2

+ 1.0
+2.0
-17.0
+4.0
+11.0
17
310
2 Ibs CAP
USM
13.0
160.8
+0.8
240.0
0.8
214.0*

2.0

-54.0
+44.0
-19.0
-7.0
+35.0
18
NA
CEUM
11.7
113.0
+0.3
342.0
1.3
78.0
48.0
2.5

-21.0
+33.0
-37.0
-3.0
+ 18.0
17
318
* Both wet and dry scrubbing are included.
** Coal nrnHiirtion rhanpp estimates fnr the I ISM moH*»l arp fr»r 19X5. Th«» ha
-------
TABLE E.1.10
1990 FORECASTS FOR CEUM RUNS
RUN NUMBER

SO2 Emissions (10 tons/yr)
Annualized Costs ($1980 X 109/yr)
% Change over Base Case
Cost Effectiveness ($/ton removed)
Electricity Rate Increase (%)
Wet FGD (GW)
Dry FGD (GW)
Capacity Penalty (GW)
*Coal Production Changes (10 tons)
Northern Appalachia
Central and Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies and Southwest
Rest of West
Coal Use (1015 Btu/yr)
Total Capital Costs ($1980 X 109)
No. 1
Base
18.9
110.6
-
-
-
53.0
28.0
2.1

209.0
340.0
174.0
260.0
152.0
116.0
17.0
308
No. 2
10% ARM
17.2
110.8
0.2%
115.0
0.1
54.0
29.0
2.1

-2.0
+8.0
-15.0
-3.0
+9.0
+ 1.0
17.0
319
No. 3
30% ARM
13.8
111.5
+0.8%
175.0
0.5
61.0
30.0
2.3

-20.0
+27.0
-25.0
-1.0
+ 17.0
+2.0
17.0
311
No. 4
10% Each
17.0
111.8
+ 1.0
628.0
0.6
54.0
31.0
2.1

-7.0
+6.0
-10.0
-4.0
+9.0
0.0
17.0
309
No. 5
30% Each
13.3
114.1
+32.0
618.0
1.9
63.0
52.0
2.4

-17.0
+22.0
-27.0
-5.0
+24.0
-2.0
17.0
316
No. 6
4 Pound
16.2
111.3
+0.6
245.0
0.4
67.0
28.0
2.2

+ 1.0
+2.0
-17.0
+4.0
+11.0
1.0
17.0
310
No. 7
2 Pound
11.7
113.0
+0.3
342.0
1.3
78.0
48.0
2.5

-21.0
+33. 0
-37.0
-3.0
+ 18.0
+2.0
17.0
318
     Coal production change estimates for the USM model are for 1985. The base case production estimate for
     CEUM includes all coal produced including that used by non-utility sources and that exported whereas USM
     estimates only apply to  production required to meet utility steam-coal requirements.  Thus the absolute
     numbers for the base case are not directly comparable.

-------
TABLE E.J.I I       1990 FORECASTS FOR USM/AIRTEST RUNS
RUN IDENTIFICATION

SO2 Emissions (10 tons/yr)
Armualized Costs ($1980 X 109/yr)
% Change over Base Case
Cost Effectiveness ($/ton removed)
Electricity Rate Increase (%)
FGD - Wet & Dry (GW)
Capacity Penalty (GW)
Coal Use (10 15 Btu/yr)
BNC
19.9
159.0
-0.4
-
-0.2
135.0
1.7
18
BSC
18.6
159.6
-
0.0
155.0
1.8
18
BSS
16.5
159.9
+0.2
140.0
0.2
169.0
1.8
18
SC4
16.7
159.9
+0.2
160.0
0.2
159.0
1.8
18
SC2
13.0
160.8
+0.8
210.0
1.1
214.0
2.0
18
S50
14.1
160.7
+0.7
240.0
0.9
220.0
2.0
18
PMR
12.7
161.2
+ 1.0
270.0
1.3
270.0
2.2
18
R35
17.7
163.9
+2.7
480.0
0.7
174.0
2.2
18
LED
16.1
160.4
0.5
320.0
0.6
155.0
1.8
18
UCW
17.3
159.8
O.I
150.0
0.2
151.0
1.8
18
CFW
16.2
NA
-
-
153.0
1.8
18
                                                                                                                           IJ
                                                                                                                           to

-------
TABLE E.I.12       USM COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES (106 tons)
SCENARIO RUNS FOR 1985

Northern Appalachia
Central and Southern Appalachia
Midwest
Western Northern Great Plains
Rockies and Southwest
1980
134
117
116
123
45
BASE
135
151
114
163
73
BNC
+7
-10
+9
+4
-8
BSS
-24
+28
-5
-3
+6
SC4
-16
+21
-8
-1
+5
SC2
-54
+44
-19
-7
+35
550
-42
+42
-12
-9
+ 18
RMR
-43
+47
-6
-15
+ 16
R35
0
+ 1
0
0
0
LED
-2
+7
-11
0
+ 11
UCW
-5
-6
+4
-1
0
CWF
-4
-5
0
-3
0

-------
TABLE E.I.13   NATIONAL ANNUAL UTILITY COSTS:  1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 ($ Billion - 1980)

1985:
Fuel
O&M
Capital
Total
1990:
Fuel
O&M
Capital
Total
1995:
Fuel
O<5cM
Capital
Total
2000:
Fuel
O&M
Capital
Total
BNC

62.0
19.4
49.7
131.1

73.5
24.9
60.5
159.0

82.5
30.2
66.2
178.9

88.9
35.3
76.2
200.3
BSC

62.2
19.5
49.7
131.3

73.7
25.1
60.8
159.6

82.6
30.3
66.4
179.3

89.0
35.4
76.1
200.5
BSS

62.2
19.6
49.9
131.6

73.7
25.2
60.9
159.9

82.6
30.5
66.5
179.6

89.1
35.5
76.2
200.8
SC4

62.3
19.6
49.8
131.6

73.8
25.2
60.9
159.9

82.7
30.4
66.4
179.6

89.2
35.4
76.2
200.8
SC2

62.5
19.9
50.3
132.7

74.2
25.5
61.3
160.8

83.1
30.8
66.7
180.6

89.5
35.8
76.2
201.5
S50

62.3
20.0
50.2
132.5

73.9
25.6
61.3
160.7

82.8
30.8
66.6
180.3

80.2
35.8
76.2
201.3
RMR

62.0
20.5
50.5
133.0

73.6
26.1
61.5
161.2

82.6
31.3
66.7
180.7

80.1
36.3
76.2
201.6
R35

62.2
19.5
50.6
132.2

73.1
25.4
65.5
163.9

80.6
39.9
73.1
184.5

86.5
36.0
82.4
204.8
LED

62.8
19.5
49.9
132. 1

74.4
25.2
60.8
160.4

83.5
30.5
66.4
180.4

90.3
35.7
76.1
202.1
UCW

62.4
19.4
49.7
134.5

74.0
25.0
60.8
159.8

82.9
30.3
66.4
179.6

89.4
35.3
76.2
200.8
                                                                                                                           N>
                                                                                                                           •C-

-------
                     125
oc
<
UJ
 CM
o
20


19


18


17


16


15


14


13


12


11


10


 9


 S


 7


 6


 5


 4


 3


 2


 1
         1980
               1985
1990

YEAR
1995
2000
  FIGUREE.i.iNATIONAL UTILITY SULFUR DIOXIDE EMISSIONS 1980-2000

            AS  PROJECTED BY USM  (MILLION TONS PER YEAR)

-------
                        126
                                                     R35
     + 1.0  -
     -1.0 h
FIGUREE.1.2PERCENTAGE  CHANGE FROM  BASE  CASE  NATIONAL INVESTOR
          ELECTRICITY  PRICES AS PROJECTED BY USM

-------
                                    127
Injection with Modified Burners (LIMB) might yield  reduction of both NO  and SO9
                                                                      A       £
at costs well below those for conventional scrubbers.  However, this technology is in
the developmental stage and would not be available for installation until after 1985.
     A few caveats should accompany any assessment of the model results.
Results are preliminary   findings  and  can  be viewed confidently as  correctly
indicative of qualitative trends.  Their quantitative accuracies have considerable
error margins, due largely  to inexactness of many of the models input data, such as
the energy scenario.
Cost outputs should be used with great caution. They assume a utility will seek to
minimize overall costs  and it  is clear that some utilities do not choose to do this,
but instead  minimize capital expenditures. For example, a utility may choose to use
low-sulfur coal to meet a requirement, even though capital investment in  a scrubber
may be less expensive overall.
Costs  to  break existing  contracts are  not  reflected  in  this  analysis.   This  is
important because of  the great  reliance on cleaned  or low-sulfur coal, which often
requires a change in coal source  for a utility.
Costs for  specific power plants  are expected  to vary markedly (up and down) from
the typical costs modeled in this study.
Artificial constraints on use of low-sulfur coal will increase the overall control cost
of  a given strategy  because  low-sulfur  coal  tends to  be  less  expensive  than
scrubbing.   Such constraints could be imposed to prevent loss of coal demand from
areas  having  predominantly   high-sulfur  cost  (e.g.,  the   midwest,  northern
Appalachia).
The costs for FGD are low.  FGD costs in CEUM  are  only slightly low, but FGD
costs in USM  are significantly  too low.   Additional analyses with more accurate
costs are underway.
Certain costs  may be overstated,  for example, benefits from coal cleaning  from
lower O/M  costs and  transportation costs were not included.   More  generally the
benefits  from  pollution control were  not  considered in  the  cost-effectiveness
measures.

-------
                                         128
E.2        IN CANADA

E.2.1      PROJECTED EMISSIONS - THERMAL POWER

           Canada's electrical generating  capacity is expected to increase substantially
by 1990, exceeding 1977 capacity by over 60 percent.    This expansion will be noticeable
in all three major types of generation:  hydroelectric, nuclear, and conventional thermal.
Hydroelectric power will maintain its leading role in the utility sector, nuclear power will
grow by a factor  of three, and thermal generation  will increase  to a  somewhat lesser
degree.
           Conventional steam electric capacity, which  was 19 200 MW  in  1978,  may
increase to 29 000 MW by the end of 1989.  ' All announced steam-unit additions by 1990
will  be coal-fired. This added coal-burning capacity will cause annual coal consumption to
increase   by  127 percent,   from   21 100 kilo tonnes  in   1977  to   approximately
47 900 kilotonnes in  1989.  The majority of the steam-unit additions are in the provinces
of Alberta and British Columbia.
           Table E.2.1 shows each province's percentage distribution of installed capacity
by generation type for both 1977 and 1989.  The type categories are standard: coal steam,
oil steam, gas steam, nuclear, hydro, gas turbine, and internal combustion.
           The 1989 distributions do not include the effects of  any capacity penalties due
to pollution control devices and therefore  represent the distributions that would occur in
the case involving no active pollution control. The changes in the distributions due to  the
imposition of pollution control penalties are not great.
           In Table E.2.2, the generation mix by province  is presented for the two years
1977 and  1989.   Note  that Nova  Scotia,  Saskatchewan,  Alberta,  and  British Columbia
substantially   increase   their  share   of   generation    from   coal   units.      In
     Statistics Canada,  Electric Power  Statistics, Vol. 1, Annual Electric Power Survey
     of Capability and Load - 1979-1983 Forecast, 57-204 Annual (Ottawa, Ont.: Manu-
     facturing and Primary Industries Division, Energy and Minerals Section, September
     1979); Department of Energy, Mines and Resources, Electric Power in Canada - 1979
     (Canada:  Electrical  Section - Energy Policy Sector, 1980); "Canada -Still  Planning
     for a Strong  1980,"  Electrical World 1980 Statistical  Report, 5 March 1980.

-------
TABLE E.2.1
                 129

COMPARISON OF GENERATING CAPACITY MIX, BY PROVINCE, 1977
and 1989 (PERCENT)
Province
P.E.I.
1977
1989
Nfld.
1977
1989
N.S.
1977
1989
N.B.
1977
1989
Que.
1977
1989
Ont.
1977
1989
Man.
1977
1989
Sask.
1977
1989
Alta.
1977
1989
B.C.
1977
1989
NATIONAL
1977
1989
Coal

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

22.70
47.66

6.22
10.53

0.00
0.00

34.20
29.80

12.67
10.10

45.28
65.10

58.69
75.07

0.00
14.37

18.82
19.74
Oil

57.89
57.89

4.54
6.31

51.37
28.88

60.63
40.26

4.28
1.60

9.08
6.06

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

7.84
4.56
Gas

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

5.22
3.49

0.00
0.00

19.15
12.21

19.71
12.51

12.64
6.70

5.30
3.14
Nuclear

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
20.16

1.39
1.69

17.61
37.82

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
6.37
12.16
Hydro

0.00
• 0.00

92.01
90.05

11.14
15.15

31.81
28.16

92.66
85.03

31.74
21.38

86.00
88.84

28.04
17.89

16.10
8.66

82.13
75.72

58.40
54.80
Turbine

35.96
35.96

2.48
2.72

14.73
8.28

1.11
0.74

1.21
11.39

2.11
1.41

0.76
0.61

7.43
4.74

4.69
3.32

4.02
2.57

2.78
5.28
Internal
Combustion

6.14
6.14

0.96
0.92

0.07
0.04

0.24
0.16

0.46
0.29

0.05
0.03

0.57
0.46

0.10
0.06

0.81
0.43

1.20
0.64

0.47
0.31

-------
TABLE E.2.2
                 130

COMPARISON OF GENERATION MIX, BY PROVINCE 1977, and 1989
(PERCENT)
Province
P.E.I.
1977
1989
Nfld.
1977
1989
N.S.
1977
1989
N.B.
1977
1989
Que.
1977
1989
Ont.
1977
1989
Man.
1977
1989
Sask.
1977
1989
Alta.
1977
1989
B.C.
1977
1989
Coal

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

10.40
49.48

7.56
10.04

0.00
0.00

18.90
12.19

5.50
3.41

55.72
71.05

61.51
81.94

0.00
7.28
Oil

66.84
43.36

0.67
0.82

58.64
8.51

33.48
10.97

0.00
0.00

0.98
0.62

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
Gas

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.23
0.14

0.00
0.00

0.79
4.32

11.07
5.82

0.51
0.23
Nuclear

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
21.98

0.37
0.49

28.47
54.18

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
Hydro

0.00
0.00

99.19
99.05

19.14
33.47

57.99
56.94

99.55
99.05

51.33
32.80

94.40
96.53

43.17
24.40

27.12
12.08

99.21
92.35
Turbine

32.37
48.97

0.07
0.07

11.81
8.54

0.94
0.04

0.04
0.44

0.09.
0.06

0.03
0.02

0.30
0.17

0.21
0.12

0.16
0.09
Internal
Combustion

0.79
7.66

0.07
0.06

0.01
0.01

0.03
0.02

0.04
0.03

0.01
0.00

0.06
0.04

0.01
0.06

0.09
0.04

0.12
0.05

-------
                                         131
New Brunswick and Ontario, the nuclear share  of generation rises considerably.   In
Newfoundland, Quebec,  Manitoba,  and British Columbia, hydro  generation  maintains  its
dominant role, accounting  for well over  90 percent of generation  in  each of  these
provinces in both 1977 and 1989. Because of the expected rise in the price of gas and oil,
the utilization of steam units using these fuels may fall in some provinces.
           Emissions from Canadian thermal power plants can be viewed as originating in
two major geographic subdivisions:  the east (all provinces east of and including Ontario);
and the west (all provinces west of and including the province of Manitoba).  The eastern
provinces have historically  burned high-sulphur coals.  Nova Scotia and  New Brunswick
have burned locally mined coals, while Ontario has burned  high-sulphur coals from U.S.
Appalachian mines  in West Virginia and Pennsylvania.  Some blending of these coals with
low-sulfur sub-bituminous western Canadian coals is carried  out in  Ontario.  Power plants
in northwestern Ontario burn low-sulphur western coals.  Except for British Columbia, the
western provinces (predominantly Alberta) will probably continue their current practices
of  burning  low-sulphur  sub-bituminous  coals  and lignites mined within  the  region.
British Columbia  will burn lignites.
Present Emissions
           With  the  exception  of  particulate matter, there are no  controls applied  to
emissions from  Canadian  thermal  power  stations,  other than  those  which  occur
fortuitously, i.e., some SO2 is  retained when certain western coal and lignite are burned,
if the fuel ash contains enough calcium or sodium compounds to bind part  of the oxidized
sulphur during combustion.   Similarly,  some boilers utilize flue gas recirculation  as
superheat control, which has a beneficial effect on NO   suppression.
                                                   A
           Thus the emissions of SC>2 an<* particuiate pollutants are ascertained by simple
calculation for each unit in provincial utility systems, given the fuel  tonnage fired, and  its
ash and sulphur content.  The  estimates for NO  are less  realistic, being made by the
application of  a factor to the tonnage of fuel fired to any given boiler.
           The historical data show that nationally in 1976:
           SO2 emissions were some 553 000 tonnes
           NO emissions were about 185 000 tonnes
           Particulate emissions were about 168 000 tonnes

-------
                                          132
Feasible Reductions
           It needs to be accepted that it is not feasible to reduce the present emissions
from all emitters, since many units are old, or under-utilized, or lack the space to install
control equipment, or have no hope of obtaining alternative fuels.
           Future  emissions may increase from their  present  values for  many  existing
units, because  they will be utilized to a  greater degree, or they  could be using fuel of
greater polluting  potential.   The  overall national thermal generating capacity is also
increasing, and the new capacity will fire solid fuel exclusively. In addition, some eastern
oil-fired stations  are  very likely  to be  converted  to  coal, possibly producing  greater
pollution than existed prior to conversion.
           To  calculate the  projected  emissions,  it  has been  necessary  to  make
assumptions for capacity growth and generation  growth in  all provinces for all types of
generation. Further assumptions have had to  be  made on the probable degrees of control
of the various emissions that will be politically acceptable, and technically practicable for
different fuels.  Most important, it  has been assumed that new stations will be controlled
wherever built, but that existing units will only be controlled where they are either large
in themselves, or form part of large stations.
           Table E.2.3 shows what is regarded as  technologically feasible.

-------
                                     133
TABLE E.2.3
THERMAL POWER - PROJECTED SOv AND NOV EMISSIONS
                                A        A
(degree of stringency
varies with fuel)
                       Year
                           S0x
                           kilotonnes/yr
N0x

kilotonnes/yr
"Business as Usual"
(No



"Str
controls)



ingent" Controls
1983
1985
1990
1995
2000
1990
830
940
1050
1160
1280
350
330
373
470
520
570
335

-------
                                        134
E.2.2      PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM COPPER-NICKEL SMELTER COMPLEXES

           A report recently prepared by Environment Canada provides  an insight into
projected levels of SO- emissions  from the Canadian copper/nickel smelting sector (1).
The  projections are based on various assumptions which are considered to be the most
probable for future emissions.  While based on  expert analysis and current information,
they could be considerably altered by several variables.  Historically, strikes, recessions,
market prices, shutdowns, etc.,  have all affected emission levels.  Such variables are
obviously too difficult to predict very far into the future.
           The last decade has reflected the effects of environmental pressures  being
brought to bear on the non-ferrous smelting industry.  Emissions from this  sector have
decreased almost continuously since 1970 and can be attributed to process improvements,
production cutbacks, and the closure of a smelter. Throughout this period, the decrease in
total SO2  emissions  was  augmented  by  increased pyrrhotite  rejection  at the  Inco
(Thompson), Inco  (Sudbury area) and Falconbridge (Sudbury area)  smelters; furthermore,
the expansion of  the acid plants  at Inco's iron ore recovery plant (IORP)  (Sudbury area),
the  addition of acid  plants at  the  Gaspe (Murdochville) and Falconbridge smelters,
coupled  with the  plant modernization  completed at Falconbridge, combined to reduce
emissions even more.   Overall,  SO* emissions  from Canadian copper/nickel smelters
decreased from a level of 3.7 million tonnes in 1970 to 2.5 million tonnes in 1977, or about
32%, while at  the same time nickel  production  decreased by  about  16%  and copper
production increased by close to 5% (1).
           The total emission  levels  for  1978  (1.7 million tonnes) and 1979 (1.6 million
tonnes) were not indicative of what might have been expected on an annual basis because
of a severe 81/2 month strike which spanned both years and which served to artificially
reduce emissions at Inco's complex in the Sudbury area from  approximately 1.14 million
tonnes in 1977 to about 0.54 million tonnes  in each of 1978 and 1979.  However, under a
new  Ontario government regulation, Inco  emissions at  its Copper  Cliff  complex are
restricted to approximately 0.87 million tonnes per year starting in 1980.  This level has
been chosen as the base level assumption to estimate future emissions.
           Based on the historical pattern  of emissions to date (1950-1980) (1), and  on
current economic conditions which indicate  an impending  recession, it  is not appropriate
to project production increases for the near future.  Therefore, based on these facts and
the following assumptions:

-------
                                        135

                a recovery to normal levels of emissions at the Gaspe smelter following
                the six-month strike in 1979,
                a recovery at Inco's  Copper  Cliff smelter to the maximum allowable
                emission level as established by the Ontario government.

the  emission  levels  at  each  smelter in  1980  are  estimated  to be as indicated in
Table E.2.4.  This being the  case, the total  SO2 emissions for this sector would  be
approximately 2.04 million  tonnes in 1980.  These estimates form the base figures for all
subsequent projections.

TABLE E.2.4         SO2  EMISSION ESTIMATES BY OPERATION, 1980

Operation
Noranda - Home
- Gaspe
Falconbridge
Hudson Bay Mining
and Smelting

Million
tonnes
0.54
0.07
0.15

0.19


Operation
Inco- Thompson
- Copper Cliff
- IORP


OVERALL TOTAL
Million
tonnes
0.23
0.80
0.07


2.04
                Scenario I
                The validity of this scenario is dependent upon the existence of a status
quo with respect to production capacity, pollution control and technological innovation
and implementation.  In  essence, this unlikely situation disregards the future short-term
effects of recessions, booms, or labor problems, and the  long-term  effects of pressures
from environmental quarters to improve the existing situation.
           Assuming that emission levels will  remain unchanged throughout  this period
provides a ceiling level for emissions. Therefore, it is projected that the worst case would
be approximately 2.0 million tonnes of SO^ emitted annually from this sector in the  year
2000 (see Figure E.2.1).

-------
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    250O
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$  1250
 10OO
  75O
        1   I    I   I    I    I   T
                                       1   I    I    I   I    I   I    I    I   I    I   I
       1980
                       I    I   I    I   I    I
                                                      I    I   I    I    I
                           1985
199O


YEAR
                                                             1995
                                                                                 SCENARIO I
                                                                                                   a\
                                                                                   SCENARIO III
                                        SCENARIO  II
200O
HGURE E 2 1        S02 EMISSION PROJECTIONS, ANNUAL AVERAGES, 1980-2000

-------
                                         137
                Scenario II
                This scenario denotes the "best case" effect.   It incorporates  changes
attributable to both technological improvements and environmental pressures.  It  assumes
that short-term fluctuations due to recessions, booms, or labor problems will be averaged
out on the long-term basis.
           Based  on expert  analysis, several  changes are  predicted  at the  various
smelters. Generally, the reductions can be attributed directly to conformity with control
orders, process improvements, acid plant construction, and industrial hygiene pressures.
           This scenario  assumes that any  production growth at the various smelters
already in existence will  be  negligible or,  if any occurs, process improvements  would
negate the consequences with respect to emissions.  The Texas Gulf smelter  is the only
one for which capacity increases are forecast, and emissions have been duly increased to
account for this.
           Based  on this  analysis,  five-year averages  of emissions  would decrease
continuously from recent emission levels (1975-1979) of  2.17 million tonnes to 0.87 million
tonnes by the end of the century. This represents an optimistic decrease of 60% without
sacrificing production output (see Figure E.2.1 and Table E.2.5).
                Scenario III
                The third scenario does not provide a projection but rather suggests a
figure somewhere within the  range established by I and II.  It is probably the  most  likely
situation since it accounts for the large amount of uncertainty associated with the other
projections.
           While Scenario I assumes  a pessimistic outlook that  technological improve-
ments and pollution control will not occur or  at least will not be implemented,  Scenario II
assumes  optimistically that improvements will be implemented at all  smelters.  Neither
situation in highly probable. This is evident on examining past performance with respect
to events that should  have (theoretically at least) the highest degree of  probability of
occurrence.  One  would assume that compliance with  control orders would have a high
degree of certainty.  However, economic situations and political pressures dictate not
only changes to the magnitude of the figures  involved, but also the time frames originally
referenced.  Since economic  conditions are  at  best  difficult to predict  and political
pressures, being dependent on expediency, are impossible to forecast,  the  probability of
compliance with any specified time frame or  specific emission level is low.

-------
TABLE E.2.5
                   138
PROJECTED SO-, EMISSIONS FROM COPPER-NICKEL SMELTER
COMPLEXES, ANNUAL TOTALS AND 5-YEAR AVERAGES,
1980 - 2000

Year
Emission
Year
Emission
Year
Emission
Year
Emission

1980
2.04
1985
1.77
1990
1.08
1995
0.87

1981
1.99
1986
1.55
1991
1.08
1996
0.87
Million
tonnes
1982
1.96
1987
1.55
1992
0.87
1997
0.87

1983
1.86
1988
1.23
1993
0.87
1998
0.87

1984
1.86
1989
1.23
1994
0.87
1999
0.87
5-year
averages

1.94

1.47

0.95

0.87
          Thus, Scenario III assumes that some environmental control and technological
improvements will occur in this sector, that production will be near or at  capacity, and
that  the  resulting  emissions  will  be somewhere  between  2.04 million tonnes  and
0.87 million tonnes by the year 2000 (see Figure E.2.1).
          It should be noted that under present conditions the environmental conscience
of society has been aroused by an awareness of the dangers posed by acid rain.  This
arousal  should, in all  probability,  ensure  that  some  action  will be  taken  to  reduce
emissions and hence Scenario III would tend to be in the more optimistic range.
          As indicated in Figure E.2.2, it is anticipated that future emissions will be at
least  lower than in any of  the  previous periods examined.   Should  the most  optimistic
scenario prove valid, emissions by the year 2000 will have decreased approximately 75%
from the peak levels  recorded in the 60's. It is of note that levels have diminished close
to 40%  since the  1960's, so that a goodly portion of the reduction is still to come as
indicated in Figure E.2.3.

-------
(0
    4OOO
    3750 —
              195O-54   1955-59   196O-64   1965-69   197O-74   1975-79   198O-84

                                          FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE PERIOD
                                                   1985-89  199O-94 1995-2OOO
         HGURE E.2.2
SO? EMISSIONS FROM COPPER/NICKEL SMELTERS, ACTUAL
AND PROJECTED, FIVE YEAR AVERAGES, 1950-2000

-------
**\JU\J
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o
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X
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10
O
O
O
Z
O
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5 1000
UJ
04
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-


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-
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-

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58%


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-

75% _
-
-
                       1965-69       1975-79       1985-89

                                 FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE PERIOD
                                             1995-99
riGURE E.2.3
PAST & PROJECTED SO? EMISSION DECREASES EXPRESSED AS
A PERCENTAGE OF PEAK EMISSIONS IN 1965-69 (BASED ON
SCENARIO II PROJECTION)

-------
REFERENCES
1.    Environment Canada, Air  Pollution Control Directorate, Copper-Nickel Smelter
     Complexes  in  Canada,   SO0  Emissions  (1950-2000).  Report   EPS  3-AP-80-5
     (January 1981).

-------
E.2.3     PROJECTED EMISSIONS - MOBILE SOURCES

          Assuming normal growth rates in both numbers of cars (3%) and annual miles
travelled by each  car  (3%)  and  in  the absence of further control action at either the
design or  in-use levels, total NO   emissions from motor vehicles can be projected to
increase by 30 to 50% between 1980 and 1990.
          If more stringent new vehicle emission standards become effective  with the
1985 models, (which will result in catalytic control of NO  with a corresponding reduction
                                                    A
in the number of vehicles fitted  with EGR valves) conceivably the actual emissions could
be reduced (as a weighted  average of the whole fleet) to  the neighborhood of  about
1.3 grams  per  mile in 1990.  Total emissions would then be reduced about  20% from 1980
levels in spite of the assumed increases in  car numbers and mobility.
          In the absence of more stringent new vehicle standards it is conceivable that
the tampering  rate (with EGR valves - discussed elsewhere) might be beneficially affected
by an inspection program on  in-use vehicles.  At the present time, however, we know of no
effective test  procedure let  alone the actual quantitative  benefits on NO  emissions that
might result from such  an inspection program.

-------
F.         CONSTRAINTS ON AND BOUNDARIES OF ANALYSIS

           This interim report addresses the initial concern, acid rain precursor emissions
and sources only.  The information  presented  in this report is predominantly  for  the
eastern part of North America, i.e.  roughly east of  a  north-south line running along  the
Manitoba-Saskatchewan border in Canada and the Mississippi River in the United States.
           A detailed review of the following major sectors is included:
a)   Thermal Power for SO and NO
                          A       A
b)   Non-Ferrous Smelters for SO
                                A
c)   Mobile Sources for NOX
           Other pollutants are  mentioned in these sectors but have not been reviewed in
detail.
           Technology for the control of these  pollutants is reviewed on a general basis
but no  site-specific assessments have been made.
           Costs of control are also reviewed, in general terms,  but no detailed site-
specific assessments have been made.
           A brief review of the following sectors is included:
a)   Petroleum refining for SO  and NO
                             A       A
b)   Industrial,  residential and commercial fuel combustion for SO  and NO
                                                              A       A
c)   Incinerators for SO  and NO
                       A        A
d)   Pulp and paper for SOx and NOX
           No detailed review or assessment of control technology and costs has been
made for these sectors.
           SO  and NO  emissions are presented for all source sectors but no review of
             A        A
control technology or costs has been carried out,  except as listed above.
           Information  on  other pollutants,  such as  photochemical oxidants may be
included in future reports if it  is determined that  they play a  significant role  in  the
transformation of SO  and NO  to acid-causing species.
                    A       A

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G.         RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE APPLIED R & D ACTIVITIES

           A number of future  applied R &  D activities  have been  identified  in this
interim report for  consideration.   Future reports  will address  this activity in greater
detail.
Recommendations
1.   Development of improved lower energy consuming reliable FGD systems for thermal
     power, especially regenerative types.
2.   Process/control technology  development for  the  reduction of SO  emissions from
     non-ferrous weak strength gas streams.
3.   Research on methods, products and markets to reduce cost  and energy consumption
     and improve environmental  acceptability for the disposal of sulphur by-products.
b.   Development of improved control technology for NO .
5.   Development of systems/technology  to accelerate the reduction of NO  emissions
                                                                        A
     from  the existing transportation fleets.
6.   An intensive  R&D  effort  is  required to characterize U.S. and  Canadian  coal
     resources in terms of their "cleanability" and to  develop improved, less expensive
     methods of coal cleaning.
7.   A long-term  commitment  to  develop cleaner less  expensive   methods of  coal
     combustion, such as coal gasification, should be made.
8.   Improved estimates of current United States and Canadian emissions are needed.  In
     particular, total U.S. emissions need refinement  and  disaggreation on a smaller
     geographic  scale than  is currently available.  In addition, research is needed on
     seasonal variations in emissions and on primary emissions of sulfates.
9.   An improved data base on NO  emissions is required.
10.   A long-term demonstration  project on coal-limestone pellets using large stoker-fired
     boilers should be undertaken.
11.   A near-term R&D project to demonstrate the emissions reductions achievable with
     and the  economics of spray dryer FGD processes applied  to high  sulfur coals  is
     required.

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                                         145

12.   A long-term  demonstration  project on  advanced  low  NO   coal burners  using
                                                               A
     pulverized coal should be funded.
13.   Bench scale,  pilot  scale, and  demonstration  scale  projects  are needed  to test
     limestone injection/multistage burner control technology.
14.   Research is needed on advanced  particulate control concepts that will lower the
     capital cost and operating costs associated with  spray dryer SC^ control.
15.   SO- add-on  control for smelters need to be studied, especially alternative acid plant
     configurations.
16.   Innovative technologies for smelting operations need to be tested and demonstrated.

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146

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    1*7
APPENDIX I

-------
1*8

-------
APPENDIX I

1         TERMS OF REFERENCE

          The Terms of Reference contained in the Memorandum of Intent are:
          This Work Group  will provide  support to the development of the "Control"
element of an agreement.  It will also prepare proposals for the "Applied Research and
Development" element of an agreement.
          In carrying out its  work, the Subgroup will:
     identify  control technologies, which are available presently or in the near future,
     and their associated costs;
     review available data bases in order to establish improved historical emission trends
     for defined source  regions;
     determine current  emission rates from defined  source regions;
     project   future emission rates  from  defined source  regions  for most  probable
     economic growth and pollution control conditions;
     project   future emission  rates  resulting from  the  implementation of  proposed
     strategy packages, and  associated  costs of  implementing the proposed strategy
     packages; and
     prepare  proposals  for  the  "Applied  Research and  Development" element of  an
     agreement.
          Work Plans, for this Work Group, have  been submitted to Work Group 3A. The
Work  Plans will be  modified as  directed in Work  Group 3A and to  address problems
identified in this Interim Report.

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                                        150

          U.S. MEMBERS OF WG3B
Kurt W. Riegel (Chairman of WG3B)
Associate Deputy Assistant Administrator
Office of Environmental Engineering and Technology (RD-681)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Lowell Smith
Director, Program Integration and Policy Staff
Office of Environmental Engineering and Technology (RD-7681)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Robert Statnick
Office of Environmental and Engineering and Technology (RD-681)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Bruce Jordan
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Conrad Kleveno
Office of International Activities (A-106)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Robin Porter
Office of Canadian Affairs
U.S. Department of State

Jack Blanchard
Office of Environment and Health
U.S. Department of State

Peter House (Vice Chairman WG3B)
Director
Office of Environmental Assessments
U.S. Department of Energy

Dick Harrington
Morgantown Energy Technology Center
U.S. Department of Energy

Douglas Carter
Regulatory Analysis Division
Office of Environment
U.S. Department of Energy

John Burckle
Industrial Environmental Research laboratory
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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                                        151
          CANADIAN MEMBERS OF WG3B
Chairman



Vice-Chairman



Members

H.A. Bambrough




E.T. Barrow


3., Knight


A. Castel


P.J. Choquette



W. Craigen



T.W. Cross


G. Kowalski


W. Lemmon



P.J. Read


C.L. Warden
M.E. Rivers, Director General
Air Pollution Control Directorate
Environment Canada

L. Lapointe, Directeur
Assainissement de 1'Air
Environnement Quebec
Head of Thermal Power Generation Section
Abatement and Compliance Branch
Air Pollution Control Directorate
Environment Canada

Head, New Technology and Process Evaluation Unit
Air Resources  Branch, Ontario Ministry of Environment

Director of Environment Services Branch
New Brunswick Department of Environment

Director, Program Planning and Evaluation Branch
Ontario Ministry of Environment

Chief, Pollution Data Analysis Division
Air Pollution Control Directorate
Environment Canada

Head, Engineering and Economic Evaluation
Canada Centre for Mineral and Energy Technology
Department of Energy, Mines and Resources

Director, Air Resources Branch
Ontario Ministry of the Environment

Senior Economic Analyst, Economic and Policy Analysis Sector
Department of Energy, Mines and Resources

Chief, Mining,  Mineral and Metallurgical Division
Air Pollution Control Directorate
Environment Canada

Adviser, Supply and Utilization, Energy Policy Sector
Department of Energy, Mines and Resources

Policy Advisor, Metallic Minerals Section
Mineral Resources, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources

-------
                                        152

Liaison

R. Beauiieu           United States Transboundary Relations Division
                     Department of External Affairs

A. Manson            Programme Coordinator, Air Pollution Control Directorate
                     Environment Canada

-------
    153
APPENDIX 2

-------

-------
                                       155

APPENDIX 2

CONTENTS

           Magnitude and Distribution of Eastern Canada SO2 emissions - 1976 data base
           (map)

           Magnitude and Distribution of Eastern Canada NO  emissions - 1976 data base
           (map)                                        x

           Listing of Eastern Canada SO2 emissions on the 127 km x 127 km  grid -1976/80
           data base

           Listing  of  Eastern  Canada NO   emissions on the 127 km x 127 km grid  -
           1976/80 data base

-------
52
        54
                56
                        58
                                                                                                                  BO
           MAGNITUDE AND DISTRIBUTION OF EASTERN CANADA S02 EMISSIONS   1976 DATA BASE ON 127 km * 127 km GRID
   IMPORTANCE ET REPARTITION DES EMISSIONS DE SQ2 DANS L'EST DU CANADA  DONNEES DE 1976 SUR GRILLE DE 127 km x 127 km

-------
              54
                      56
                              58
                                      60
                                               62
                                                       64
                                                               66
                                                                       68
                                                                                        72
                                                                                                74
 46
 42
 38
 36
 34
 32
 30
 28
 \
 2
 2
 3
 2
,3-i

 3
 4
    \
,iv

2

3
2
3
3
                                                             2
                                                             3
                                                            Li-Vft
                                                                Qi
2
3
                                                          COORDONNEE X COORDINATE r
                                                                                                                              42
                                                                                                                              4O
                                                                                                                              38
                                                                                                                              36
                                                                                                                              34
                                                                                                                               32
                                                                                                                              3O
                                                                                                                               28
                                                                                                                                  in
                                                                                                                                  -Nl
      52
                      56
                              58
                                      60
                                               62
                                                       64
                                                               66
                                                                       68
                                                                                7O
                                                                                        72
                                                                                                         76
                                                                                                                 78
       MAGNITUDE AND DISTRIBUTION OF EASTERN CANADA NOX (EXPRESSED AS N02) EMISSIONS  1976 DATA BASE ON  127 km x 127 km GRID
IMPORTANCE ET REPARTITION DES EMISSIONS DE NQX (EXPRIMEES EN N02) DANS L'EST DU CANADA  DONNEES DE 1976 SUR GRILLE DE  127 km * 127 km

-------
                                158



LISTING OF EASTERN CANADA SO2 EMISSIONS ON THE 127 km x 127 km GRID
CANADIAN EMISSIONS DATA - 1976
(PRELIMINARY) (IN TONNES)
(y coord.)
47
46
45
44
43 84
42 152 226
41 522
40 123
39 40 262
38 187 568
37 150 6 073
36 15
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
51 52

SOX (as S02)
THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL ESTIMATES





2 6
2
59 16 334 019 48
13 62 14
10 1 13
49 10 5
167 124 6 10
13 618 4 115 29 240
508 230 1 498 959
866 193







53 54 55 56
(x coord.)





27


1
1
2
1
1
34
937
67






57


-------
159
CANADIAN EMISSIONS DATA - 1976
(PRELIMINARY) (IN TONNES)
(y coord.)
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39 32
38 17
37 92
36 24 8
35 583 581
34. 6 897
33
32
31
30
29
28
58 59

SOX (as SO2)
THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL ESTIMATES











1
1 45
18 1 1
233 227 5 296 398
557 182 264 13 4 873
1 190 33 36
2 765 1 411 1 006 890
79 250
19 593 4 721
200 212 182 485
7 415 4 115 213
60 61 62 63
(x coord.)


1

16





105
90
83
1
133
540 695
1 140
6 060
1 299
35 656
210 026

64


-------
160
CANADIAN EMI:
(PRELIMINARY)
(y coord.)
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
35 1
34 2
33
32
31
30 7
29
28


5SIONS DATA - 1976
(IN TONNES)


16





26

1

1 1
049 78
929 24
11 31
997 2 214
723 20 565
037 14 291


65 66

SOX (as S02)
THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL ESTIMATES



5


10





1
747
226
51
219
7 615
17 442



67




2
4 4

21

321


1 1 289
1 1 46
1 27
3 019 514 875
1 907 27 876 5 750
6 540 46 899 3 263
149 096 15 323 3 147
143 356 8 932



68 69 70
(x coord.)









55
1 507

1 417
4 059
13 017
7 320
1 570





71


-------
161
CANADIAN EMI!
(PRELIMINARY)
(y coord.)
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36 73
35 10
34 16
33 14
32 5
31
30
29
28


5SIONS DATA - 1976
(IN TONNES)





4
10

108


81 241
107 889
229 6 332
963 12 322
549 45 808
539 95 557
288 5 321
88


72 73

S0x (as S02)
THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL







3

493
1
1
44


12 603
12 841
18 882
4 745
134


74









21

1
61


618
6 387 34
31 031 37
68 080




75
(x coord.) .
ESTIMATES







17
50 260
281 299
185 826
5601 5.412
830 657
218
578 107
501
0




76 77










55
94
4 935
363
309








78


-------
                                     162
                                 SOX (as S02)
CANADIAN EMISSIONS DATA - 1976 THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL ESTIMATES
(PRELIMINARY) (IN TONNES)
(y coord.)
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39              25
38           2  188        419
37          11  404     19 870
36           1  949        444
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
                79         80
                                         (x coord.)

-------
                                 163



LISTING OF EASTERN CANADA NOX EMISSIONS ON THE 127 km x 127 km GRID
CANADIAN EMISSIONS DATA - 1976
(PRELIMINARY) (IN TONNES)
(y coord.)
47
45
44
43
42 670
41 1 052
40 1 004
39 204 1 561
38 963 2 846
37 821 10 127
36 88
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
51 52

NOX (as N02)
THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL





618
715
624
355
673
961
40 121
2 257








53
(x




41
413
635 1
748
208
310
857
7 813 1
1 360 1
1







54
coord.)
ESTIMATES



14 7
271
949 625
489 579
543 461
408 40
873 858
237 1 459
678 2 317
500 1 026







55 56





182

55
156
57
23
622
1 031
1 368
1 430
427






57


-------
164
CANADIAN EMISSIONS DATA - 1976
(PRELIMINARY) (IN TONNES)
(y coord.)
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40 9
39 23 18
38 274 25
37 1 330 842
36 1 093 1 261
35 1 831 1 703
34 6 717
33
32
31
30
29
28
58 59

NOX (as NO2)
THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL ESTIMATES








2
5

18
345
316 207 1
1 637 1 288 2 119 1
1 484 1 687 1 403 4
1 626 1 436 1
5 264 3 183 10
200
1 100 9
34 691 93
13 481 7 855
60 61 62
(x coord.)


1

24






18
279
412
841
911
469
764
748
286
019
533
63







1



63
50
162
537
645
3 543
2 397
5 154
4 056
67 084
172 391

64


-------
165
CANADIAN EMISSIONS
(PRELIMINARY) (IN TC
(y coord.)
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36 -
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28


l
15
37
12
76
191
914
2 729
183
2 646
2 623
13 072


65

NOX (as N02)
i DATA - 1976 THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL ESTIMATES
)NNES)


86
191
225
190
187
2 181
34 266
14 938


66


3
17

143
677
345
225
361
6 092
13 616



67


1
3
1
125
191
191
1 488
1 380
4 421
71 366
105 327



68
(x coord.)

33
19
163
125
29
562
10 939
29 720
11 994
6 761



69


3
206
354
144
183
833
4 944
3 051
2 653




70


17
733

1 137
561
7 328
4 407
920





71


-------
166
CANADIAN EMISSIONS
(PRELIMINARY) (IN TC
(y coord.)
47
46
45
44
43 22
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28



483


93
921
4 515
2 668
8 178
2 652
151



72

NOX (as N02)
i DATA - 1976 THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL ESTIMATES
)NNES)
213
674
899
786
19
229
865
3 424
6 720
11 053
19 919
3 297
67


73


311
599
1 877
639
191
106


6 822
7 008
11 303
2 300
71


74



124
899
311
202


563
1 366
11 952
24 161




75
(x coord.)


14
121
485
421
1 388
1 043
243
19 805
11 146





76




374
803
1 497
3 416
1 105

59

0




77





110
3 717
1 280
344








78


-------
                                    167
                                NOV (as NO,)
                                  J\      £~
CANADIAN EMISSIONS DATA - 1976 THROUGH 1980 - ANNUAL ESTIMATES
(PRELIMINARY) (IN TONNES)
(y coord.)
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39             37
38          2 461       294
37          3 942     11 200
36          1 400       448
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
               79        80
                                        (x coord.)

-------