Environmental Outlook 1975-2000
Federal Region V

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Environmental Outlook 1975-2000
Federal Region V
Mareia L. Wilson
Laura R. Jones
Thomas F. Wolfinger
W. David McGarry
August 1980
MTR-80W207
Sponsor: Environmental Protection Agency
Contract No.: 68-01-5064
The MITRE Corporation
Metrek Division
1820 Dolley Madison Boulevard                                                                       G>
McLean, Virginia 22102                                                                            O
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                                            ABSTRACT






     The information in this document was presented by the EPA Assistant Administrator  for




Research and Development (ORD) as a briefing to senior staff at the Region V headquarters in




Chicago, Illinois on June 18, 1980.  The briefing opened a day of discussion between ORD and




Region V on the environmental outlook for the region.




     This briefing is organized in two major sections:  pollutant emission trends  and emerging




environmental issues.  Each new subject is introduced by a pair of slides.   The supporting  text




is divided into highlights, caveats and detail.
                                            111

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                                        ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS







     Many individuals contributed to the preparation of this document.  Special acknowledgement




is due to Beth Borko, Steve McBrien, Kris Barrett, Brant Smith and Bob Atkins of The MITRE




Corporation;  John Reuss, Al Humphreys, David Bennett, Charles Oakley and Marjorie Russell of the




Environmental Protection Agency;  and Gary Glass of the Environmental Research Laboratory at




Duluth, Minnesota.
                                                iv

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                                       TABLE OF CONTENTS
                                                                                            PAGE
BRIEFING OUTLINE                                                                             3
EPA's LONG-RANGE RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS                                                   5
AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION TRENDS - NATIONAL AND REGIONAL                                       13
TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS - REGION V                                                23
POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGE TRENDS - NATIONAL AND REGIONAL                       27
TRENDS IN POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES - REGION V                                37
TRENDS IN SOLID WASTE GENERATION FROM POLLUTION CONTROL - REGION V                          43
TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT                                                         49
PRODUCTION TRENDS FOR SELECTED TOXIC CHEMICALS                                              55
TRENDS IN HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION                                                        59
OIL AND HAZARDOUS MATERIAL SPILLS                                                           63
CHEMICAL DEPOSITION                                                                         75
ACID PRECIPITATION - PATTERNS OF EMISSIONS AND pH OF RAIN                                   79
ACID PRECIPITATION - TRENDS IN EMISSIONS AND SENSITIVE AREAS                                81
ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE                                           87
UTILITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION AIR EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS      91
COAL SYNTHETIC FUEL PRODUCTION                                                              91
REGION V SUMMARY                                                                            97
APPENDIX A - BACKGROUND FOR ANALYSIS                                                       A-l
APPENDIX B - METHOD USED TO DERIVE HAZARDOUS WASTE ESTIMATES                               B-l
APPENDIX C - REGION V ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE                    C-l

                                              v

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ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 1975-2000




        FEDERAL REGION V

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The Environmental Outlook
          Region V
   Office of Research and Development
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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                                     BRIEFING OUTLINE
Purpose:        To identify potentially significant environmental problems which could develop
                in Region V between now and 2000.

Background:     Based primarily on the Office of Research and Development's (ORD) Environmental
                Outlook 1980 report prepared by the Office of Strategic Assessment and Special
                Studies.

                Pollutant emissions projections were made by the Strategic Environmental
                Assessment System (SEAS) model and other sources.  All projections presented
                should be treated as approximations based on assumptions.

Coverage:       Air and water pollutants and solid waste generation are discussed with special
                emphasis being given to emerging environmental issues.  Plans for future Envi-
                ronmental Outlook reports are also discussed.

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 The Environmental Outlook
  Studies Add a Long-Range
Perspective to EPA Research
             Planning
                                                                     EPA's Long-Range Research Planning Process
 Science
 Advisory
 Board
 Research
 Committee
 Strategies
1 National
 Academy
 of Sciences

 OSASS
 Environmental
 Outlook
 Report

 Anticipatory
 Research
 Findings
Budget
Planning
Process
                                                                         Research
                                                                         Outlook      Research
                                                                                    Committees
Grants/
Cooperative
Agreements

Contracts

Interagency
Agreements

In-house
Laboratory
Work

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                           EPA's LONG-RANGE RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS

                                           HIGHLIGHTS
•  EPA's long-range research and development planning program was established to support the
   Agency's regulatory mission and prepare it to deal with future environmental problems.

•  The Office of Exploratory Research (OER) is responsible for providing information about en-
   vironmental trends for use in R&D planning.  The Environmental Outlook reports are a key
   input.

•  Research committees are responsible for developing R&D strategies in 13 subject areas.
   These strategies have a major role in EPA's budget process, and thus must reflect a reason-
   ably accurate idea of what the future holds, given existing trends.

•  In developing information about environmental futures, OER must consider the forces of
   change in our society, including population and economic growth, technology, public policy
   and social attitudes, and latent problems.  These forces of change underlie the trends in
   pollutant discharges and overall environmental quality presented in this document.

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                               THE ORD RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS

                                            DETAIL
     The Office of Exploratory Research (OER) is responsible for providing information concern-
ing environmental futures to the R&D planning process.  This input consists of identifying, de-
fining and assessing future environmental trends and problems and conducting exploratory re-
search to meet basic knowledge needs concerning future problems.  Within OER, the Office of
Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS) has primary responsibility for the former and
shares responsibility for the latter with the Office of Research Grants and Centers.

     Specifically, OSASS is responsible for producing reports which:

•  Provide a reasonably comprehensive, integrated overview of the longer-term regional,
   national and global environmental outlook.

•  Expand existing data bases and increase understanding of potentially significant future
   problems.

•  Evaluate concepts, methods, models and environmental controls and policies as they affect
   the environmental future.

     Collectively, these reports are intended to:

•  Provide  a description of alternative future trends and contingencies and an analysis  of
   their environmental consequences, including their public health, public welfare  and policy
   implications.

•  Identify research which should be conducted to support the Agency's regulatory mission  over
   the longer-term future.

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GRD Research Committees are formed around the following subjects:

  —  Mobile source air pollution              -  Drinking water
  -  Gxidants       .                          —  Solid waste
  -  Gaseous and inhalable particulate        -  Chemical testing and assessment
     pollutants                               -  Pesticides
  -  Hazardous air pollutants                 -  Nonionizing radiation
  -  Water quality                            -  Energy
  -  Industrial wastewater
  -  Municipal wastewater, spill
     prevention and ocean disposal

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                            DRIVING FORCES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

                                            DETAIL
•  Population and Economic Growth - The U. S. population will increase by perhaps 45 million
   persons by the year 2000, each of whom will consume resources, and demand a pleasant and
   safe personal environment.  During the same period, economic activity will expand, with at-
   tendant potential for generation of air, water and solid waste pollution.  Maintaining envi-
   ronmental quality in the face of such growth - at affordable cost to society - is a major
   challenge for the next 20 years.

•  Changing Technology - Various factors dictate changes in technology.  In particular, in-
   creasing energy costs are stimulating technological changes in the automobile fleet, in
   industrial processes, and in our daily living and recreational activities.  Changing pollu-
   tion control approaches also will affect environmental quality.  We are steadily improving
   our ability to detect and cope with an expanding list of environmental threats.  The in-
   creasing cost of pollution control is expected to stimulate technology change in the direc-
   tion of new methods that produce less potentially polluting waste.  (The Environmental
   Outlook 1981 section on hazardous wastes examines the potential for process changes in cer-
   tain segments of the organic chemicals industry that could be instituted in response to
   increasing hazardous waste disposal costs.)

 •  Public Policy and Social Attitudes - Strong public support will be needed  to  sustain the
   national effort to maintain environmental quality.  In future years, public support could  be
   threatened by the costs of environmental protection, constraints on energy policy choices,
   and increased government regulation of the private sector.  Public policy  decisions on en-
   ergy will have a great impact on future environmental quality.  Widespread conversion of
   electric utilities and industrial boilers to coal may affect  public health and  the mainte-
   nance of certain ecosystems.  Among potential problems associated with this conversion are
   increased ambient concentrations of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, particulates,
   radionuclides, toxic trace metals and organic compounds.

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Latent Problems - The quality of our environment in future years will also be affected by
unforeseen developments - some of which we may be creating today.  Latent problems are ex-
emplified by the relatively recent realization that hazardous wastes have been dumped with-
out proper safeguards.  We have also become aware of acid precipitation, atmospheric de-
position of toxic substances, and C02 build-up in the atmosphere.  Undoubtedly, there are
problems we do not yet recognize.

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                    Air Pollutant Trends
                    Water Pollutant Trends
                    Solid Waste Generation Trends
                 Selected Special Topics for Region V
                         Threats to Human Health
                           • Toxic Substances
                           • Hazardous Wastes and Spills

                         Threats to Ecosystems
                           • Chemical Deposition


                         Environmental Policy Dilemmas
                           • Energy Demand
                           • Fuel Substitution
                           • Synthetic Fuels
11

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                             National Trends in Major
                              Air Pollutant Emissions
Fraction of     19.8
 1975 Nel  7.7
                                                       Abated
                                                       Nel Emissions
                                                       Other
                                                       Transportation
                                                       Industrial Combustion
                                                       Electric Utilities
                                                       Construction Materials
                                 Regional Perspective
                            Air Pollutant Emission Trends
                                                                                                                       NO, Increases—
                                                   Particulaies Decrease -
              CoalCombustion^   SO.. NO, Increase- C^lr«tton"lndusU
3,,, NOK Increase—   „,
sal Combustion, -si i     /
Mroleum Refining  r-^
               /     XS
                                                                                                        SOt Decreases-
                                                                                                        Controls on Sulfuric
                                                                                                        Acid Plants
                                                                                                                                                           Participates. SOX. NO,
                                                                                                                                                           Increase - Industrie
                   SO, Increases —
Particulates. SO,.  \ Conversion to CoaK
Decrease- Utilities
                  ' New England.
                      Jfl
                                                                                                                                                                                        SO,. Particulates
                                                                                                                                                                                        Decrease
                                                                        NO, Increases -
                                                                        Utilities
                                                                                                                                                           Combustion
                                                                                                L2

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                       AIR POLLUTANT  EMISSION TRENDS  -  NATIONAL & REGIONAL
                                           HIGHLIGHTS
NATIONAL    •  Significant increases in net emissions would occur only for NOX.  This
               increase is due to growth in electric power generation and industrial com-
               bustion.  Emissions of other air pollutants are expected to remain relatively
               constant or decline between 1975 and 2000.
            •  Particulates:  Major source is the construction materials industry.  Net emis-
               sions projected to decrease slightly as a result of compliance by utilities with
               SIP standards.
            •  SOX:  Major source is coal use by utilities and boilers, which doubles between
               1975 and 2000.  Net SOX emissions, however, are projected to remain relatively
               constant as a result of application of desulfurization techniques.
               HC and CO:  Major source is transportation.  Net emissions projected to decline
               significantly as a result of compliance with regulations.
REGIONAL    •  Regional trends are similar to national trends.  Increases in NOX emissions
               are projected to occur in all regions.
            •  Pollutant emissions are expected to be highest in 2000 in the Southeast, Great
               Lakes, and South Central U.S. (Regions IV, V and VI).

                                     CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS

            •  Air pollutant data are most complete and current for energy technologies, fuel
               combustion and conventional industrial processes.
            •  Scenario assumes no control on stationary sources of NOX; since health impacts
               of exposure are of increasing concern to EPA, this may not be a safe assumption
               for the future.
            •  NOX generation projections are adjusted to reflect emissions with no mobile
               source controls; net NOX emissions reflect beneficial impact of mobile source
               controls.
            •  It is assumed (except in the case of California) that all states will meet
               Federal mobile source standards.  (Region-specific transportation control stan-
               dards not incorporated.)
            •  Future Environmental Outlook reports will be directed in part to Research Com-
               mittee concerns and may include such topics as mobile source air pollution,
               oxidants, hazardous air pollutants and gaseous and inhalable particulates.
                                               13

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                        NATIONAL TRENDS IN MAJOR AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS

                                             DETAIL
Particulates
•  Between 1975 and 2000, total generation of particulates is  projected  to  more
   than double.

•  If full compliance with existing air emission regulations were  achieved,  parti-
   culate emissions would decrease one-third between 1975 and  1985.   Compliance
   with emissions limits established in State Implementation Plans is assumed by
   1982.  Compliance with these limits should have a beneficial impact,  especially
   in the near term.  After 1985,  emissions would increase gradually through 2000,
   to 85 percent of 1975 levels, due to economic growth and increasing fossil fuel
   combustion.

•  Despite increases in total coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial
   boilers, particulate emissions from coal combustion are expected to decline if
   standards are met.

•  The construction materials industry (which includes glass,  cement, sand and
   gravel, and similar sources) is the major source of particulate emissions,
   accounting for approximately 40 percent of total net emissions  in 1975.   This
   is the only industrial source for which particulate emissions in 2000 are pro-
   jected to exceed 1975 levels.

•  Assuming process changes in the steel industry, including conversion to basic
   oxygen and electric arc furnaces, particulate emissions from the steel industry
   are projected to decrease more sharply than emissions from other industries.
Sulfur
Oxides
   The generation of SOX is expected to double between 1975 and 2000.

   Coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial boilers, which in 1975 ac-
   counted for two-thirds of SOX releases, is expected to more than double be-
   tween 1975 and 2000.  However, SOX releases are expected to remain fairly
   constant from 1975 to 2000 as a result of desulfurization techniques.

                              14

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Nitrogen
Oxides
                 Sulfur oxide releases from the copper smelting industry, the third largest
                 SOX source, are expected to decline sharply between 1975 and 1985 through use
                 of control measures (e.g., single and double contact sulfuric acid plants and
                 sulfite-bisulfite stack gas scrubbers).  Between 1985 and 2000, emissions are
                 expected to increase slightly because of higher copper production.
   Electric power generation and motor vehicle transportation are each expected to
   account for about one-third of the NO  generation between 1975 and 2000.
                                                      x

                 Under high economic growth assumptions, growth in fuel use for industrial com-
                 bustion is projected to increase net NOX emissions from that source three-
                 fold between 1975 and 2000.

                 Net emissions of NOV from mobile sources are projected to decline between
                                    A.
                 1975 and 2000, even though transportation activity increases.   The decline is
                 attributed to transportation emission controls.
Hydrocarbons
•  Hydrocarbon emissions,  which contribute to the formation of  oxidants,  are  a
   significant air quality problem.   In 1975, over three-fourths of  the urban
   counties in the United States failed to comply with primary  ambient  air quality
   standards for photochemical oxidants.

•  Automobile and truck transportation accounted for over one-half  the  HC emis-
   sions in 1975, and surface coatings and petroleum refining accounted for an
   additional one-fourth.

•  Hydrocarbon releases are expected to decline substantially between 1975 and
   1985, then to remain relatively constant from 1985 to 2000.   These trends  re-
   flect projected reductions in emissions from transportation  sources  resulting
   from compliance with present mobile source abatement requirements.
                                             15

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              •  The petroleum industry is the only major source of HC emissions that  is  projected
                 to generate more pollutants  in 2000 than in  1975.

              •  Because emission standards are more stringent  for  automobiles than for trucks,
                 reductions in HC emission levels are projected to  be greater in the more
                 urbanized eastern half of the country,  where the ratio of  automobile  to  truck
                 travel is the highest.

Carbon        •  Although less than 10 percent of global atmospheric CO results from human
Monoxide         activity, as much as 98 percent of CO in urban areas results from human
                 sources, especially automobile travel.

              •  Current air quality standards regulate  CO emissions.

              •  Pollution control devices, engine design improvements, and the use of mass
                 transit alternatives to personal auto travel are expected  to reduce auto emis-
                 sions of CO more than two-thirds from 1975 to  2000.  Truck emissions  of  CO,
                 which are less strictly regulated, are  expected to decline by only one-third
                 between 1975 and 2000.

              •  Carbon monoxide emissions from all sources are expected to be cut in half from
                 1975 to 2000 primarily because of reduced transportation emissions.
                                            16

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                        REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS

                                             DETAIL
Region I      •  Emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX are projected to increase slightly,
                 while emissions of CO and HC are expected to decline significantly between 1975
                 and 2000.

              •  Net emissions of SOX are projected to increase by about 20 percent between
                 1975 and 2000, because of greater use of coal by electric utilities.  This is
                 partly due to assumed compliance with the fuel substitution requirements
                 enacted under the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974.
                 (ESECA has expired, but legislated coal coversion is continuing under the 1978
                 Fuel Use Act.)

              •  Despite the relatively slow economic growth assumed for the northeastern por-
                 tion of the United States, total NOX generation and net emissions would still
                 continue to increase in this region.  NOX emissions are expected to increase
                 more slowly than the national average of 140 percent.

              •  Emissions of particulates, SOX, NOX and HC in 2000 are projected to be
                 lower in Region I than in any other region.   Emissions were low in 1975 and
                 little growth is expected during the projection period.  Region I has lower
                 population and economic activity levels than most other regions.


Region II     •  Emissions of all air pollutants are projected to remain constant or decrease
                 between 1975 and 2000.

              •  NOX emissions are expected to remain constant in Region II, in contrast to
                 the trend in most other regions.

              •  Air pollutant emissions are projected to be low in 2000 in Region II compared
                 to other regions.
                                            17

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Region  III     •  Emissions of all air pollutants except NOX are projected to decline between
                 1975 and 2000.

               •  Despite the relatively slow economic growth assumed for the northeastern por-
                 tion of the United States, generation and emissions of NOX would increase
                 about 25 percent in this region, compared to a national average of 40 percent.

               •  Air pollutant emissions in Region III are projected to be higher than in most
                 other regions in 2000.


Region  IV      •  Emissions of all air pollutants, except NOX, are projected to decline between
                 1975 and 2000.  Despite projected declines, Region IV is expected to receive
                 high loadings of air pollutants in 2000.

               •  NOX emissions are projected to increase at a rate comparable to the national
                 average.  Region IV is expected to receive the second highest regional
                 emissions of NOX in 2000.

               •  The pulp and paper industry, which has no CO controls, is expected to cause
                 increases in local CO emissions in parts of Region IV, however, total CO emis-
                 sions would decrease 45 percent.


Region V      •  Emissions of all air pollutants except NOX are projected to decline between
                 1975 and 2000.  Despite reductions, Region V is projected to receive the high-
                 est regional emissions of SOX, HC and CO in 2000.  Emissions of particulates
                 and NOX are projected to be the second highest regionally in 2000.

              •  The projected increase in NOX emissions in Region V is much less than that
                 projected for the nation as a whole.

              •  Particulate emissions are expected to be 50 percent lower in 2000 than in 1975
                 as a result of compliance with standards and slow economic growth.


                                              18

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              •  SOX releases are projected to decline by 30 percent between 1975 and 2000
                 due to compliance by utilities.

              •  Increased CO emissions from the steel industry will be evident in this region,
                 due to a greater utilization of basic oxygen furnaces (in place of open hearth
                 furnaces).


Region VI     •  Emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX are projected to increase between
                 1975 and 2000, while emissions of HC and CO are projected to decline.

              •  Particulate emissions are expected to increase substantially because of growth
                 in aluminum production and widespread substitution of low-Btu coal for other
                 fuels.

              •  SOX releases in this region are projected to triple between 1975 and 2000
                 because of rapid increases in use of coal by electric utilities and industrial
                 combustors.

              •  NOX emissions are projected to increase more rapidly than the national aver-
                 age.  In 2000, Region VI is expected to receive the highest regional dis-
                 charges.

              •  The pulp and paper industry, which has no CO controls, is expected to increase
                 its local CO emissions in this region.

              •  Region VI is expected to receive some of the highest loadings of air pollutants
                 of any region in 2000.


Region VII    •  Greater use of coal by electric utilities and other industrial sources would
                 lead to increased emissions of SOX and NOX between 1975 and 2000.  Emis-
                 sions of other air pollutants are projected to decline.

              •  Air pollutant emissions in Region VII are projected to be moderate in 2000,
                 compared to other regions.


                                                19

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 Region VIII    •   Emissions  of  participates, SOX and NOX are projected to increase between
                  1975  and 2000.   Compared to other regions, emissions of these pollutants would
                  be moderate in Region VIII in 2000.  Emissions of HC and CO are projected to
                  decline during the forecast period.  Emissions of these two pollutants would be
                  comparatively low in 2000.

               •   NOX emissions are projected to nearly triple as a result of increased indus-
                  trial  and  electric utility combustion of coal.  Region VIII is expected to
                  experience the largest regional increase in NOX emissions.

               •   Although net  HC  emissions are projected to decrease between 1975 and 2000 in
                  all regions,  the decrease is expected to be slower in Region VIII because of
                  increases  in  emissions from industrial sources, most notably petroleum refining
                  and storage.


Region  IX      •   Emissions  of  particulates and NOX are projected to increase slightly between
                  1975 and 2000, while emissions of other air pollutants decline.

               •   Projected  particulate emissions in Region IX do not follow the national trend
                  of significant decreases between 1975 and 2000.

               •   The projected decline of SOX emissions in this region would result primarily
                  from implementation of single and double contact sulfuric acid plants and other
                  SOX control methods.  Region IX is one of three regions in which SOX re-
                  leases are projected to decline significantly between 1975 and 2000.

               •   Air pollutant emissions in Region IX are projected to be moderate in 2000, com-
                  pared to other regions.


Region X       •   Emissions of  all air pollutants except HC and CO are projected to increase be-
                  tween 1975 and 2000.  However, air pollutant emissions are expected to be low
                  in 2000 in Region X, compared to other regions.


                                               20

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•  Emissions of particulates would increase due to releases from the construction
   materials industry.

•  Increases in the level of oil refining and utility combustion of coal  would
   lead to increases in emissions of SOX and NOX between 1975 and 2000.
                                 21

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Trends in Major Air Pollutant Emissions
               Region V
                       ] Abated
                    Net Emissions
                       Other
                       Construction Materials
                       Electric Utilities


                       Steel
                               1975 2000
                             Hydrocarbons
 19752000
 Carbon
Monoxide
                                                  Region V Summary
                                                     Air Pollutants
                                                                        •  Major Sources 1975-2000 are
                                                                          Utilities, Transportation, Construction
                                                                          Materials.

                                                                        •  NOX Increases— Coal-Fired
                                                                          Utilities and Industrial Combustion.

                                                                        •  Particulates Decrease Sharply Due
                                                                          to Slow Economic Growth,
                                                                          Compliance by Utilities.

                                                                        •  SO.., HC, CO Decrease.
                                                             22

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                               TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
                                            REGION V

                                           HIGHLIGHTS
•  The only air pollutant projected to increase between 1975 and 2000 in this region is NOX.
   This increase is due to growth in energy use with the major source being coal combustion.
   All other air pollutant emissions are expected to decline.

•  Despite projected decreases, Region V is projected to have the highest regional discharges of
   SOX, HC and CO in 2000.  Discharges of particulates and NOX are projected to be the
   second highest, regionally.

•  Particulates  Major sources are the construction materials industry and electric utilities.

•  SOX           Major source is electric utilities.

•  NOX           Major sources are coal combustion and transportation.

•  HC and CO     Major source is transportation.

                                    CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS

•  The scenario considered here assumes virtually no control on stationary NOX sources.  The
   latest NSPS standards for electric utilities are not incorporated in these projections.
   Therefore, these projections may not accurately reflect the regulatory picture in 2000.

•  All states are assumed to meet Federal mobile source emission standards in this scenario.
   However, individual state transportation control plans (TCPs) may differ from this norm
   (region-specific TCP standards have not been incorporated into the projections).

•  The actual air quality impacts of the emission trends identified here are highly dependent on
   patterns of long-range pollutant transport that are not currently accounted for in SEAS.
   System development is underway to achieve this capability.
                                               23

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                                TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS

                                            REGION V

                                             DETAIL
 Participates   •  Total generation of particulates is projected to increase by about  70 percent
                 between 1975 and 2000.

               •  Net  emissions of particulates are projected to decline approximately 50 percent
                 between 1975 and 2000 as a result of decreased emissions  from coal-fired utili-
                 ties and the construction materials industry.  The percent reduction in emis-
                 sions is greater in Region V than for the nation as a whole.

               •  The  construction materials industry, which includes glass, cement,  sand, and
                 gravel, is the major source of particulate emissions, accounting for 30 to 40
                 percent of regional emissions throughout the projection period.   Electric
                 utilities accounted for about 30 percent of 1975 emissions and are expected to
                 account for about 15 percent of emissions in 2000.


Sulfur         •  Total generation of SOX is projected to increase by 60 percent between 1975
Oxides           and 2000.

               •  Net emissions of SOX are projected to decline by about 30 percent by 1985.
                 No increase in emissions is projected between 1985 and 2000.  Combustion of
                 coal is by far the largest source of SOX emissions, accounting for about 90
                 percent of regional emissions in 1975 and 80 percent in 2000.


Nitrogen      •  Total generation of NOX is projected to increase by about 20 percent between
Oxides           1975 and 2000.

              •  Net emissions of NOX are projected to parallel trends in total generation,
                 increasing about 15 percent between 1975 and 2000.  This increase in emissions
                 is comparable to the national average.  Electric utilities  and transportation
                 accounted for more than three-fourths of NOX emissions in 1975 and are
                 projected to account for about 60 percent of emissions in 2000.


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Hydrocarbons and    •  Total generation of HC and CO is projected to increase slightly between
Carbon Monoxide        1975 and 2000.

                    •  Net emissions of HC and CO are projected to decline by about 40 percent
                       between 1975 and 2000.  Automobile and truck travel are expected to
                       account for about half the emissions throughout the projection period.
                       The decline in emissions is attributed to compliance with mobile source
                       emission limits.
                                            25

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                   National Trends in Point-Source
                     Water Pollutant Discharges
                   96.8
                                          Net Emissions
                                          Other
                                          Chemicals
                                          Electric Utilities
                                          Petroleum Refining & Storage
                                          Pulp and Paper
                                          Municipal Sewage
  1975 2000
  Biochemical
Oxygen Demand
1975 2000
Phosphorus
1975 2000
Oil & Grease
                                                                               Regional Perspective
                                                                Point Source Water Pollutant Discharge Trends
                                              Dissolved Solids Increase-
                                              Utilities. Oil and Grease
                                              Increases—Alaskan Oil -
                                                            Dissolved Solids Increase-
                                                            Utilities, Chemicals.
                                                            Nutrients  Increase-
                                                            Municipal  Sewage.
                                                                                                                                                        Dissolved Solids Increase-
                                                                                                                                                        Utilities, Chemicals-
                                                                                                  Dissolved Solids
                                                                                                  Increase-
                                                                                                  Energy Production
                                                                                                  Dissolved Solids Increase
                                                                                                  Utilities, Chemicals
                                                                                                                        Dissolved Solids
                                                                                                                        Increase-
                                                                                                                        Energy Production
                                                                                                                                                                          Dissolved Solids
                                                                                                                                                                          Increase—Utilities
                                                                                                                                                      Dissolved Solids
                                                                                                                                                      Increase—Chemicals
                                                                                        26

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                                           HIGHLIGHTS
            •  With the exception of dissolved solids, discharges of all point-source water pol-
               lutants are projected to remain relatively constant or decrease between 1975 and
               2000.
            •  BOD:  Major source is municipal wastewater treatment facilities.
            •  Suspended Solids:  Major source is municipal wastewater treatment facilities.
NATIONAL       Discharges from bauxite refining and the pulp and paper industry decrease
               dramatically despite major projected growth in these industries.
            •  Dissolved Solids:  Major source is coal-fired and nuclear-fueled electric
               utilities.  The organic chemicals industry is an important source in 2000.
            •  Nitrogen and Phosphorus:  Major source is municipal wastewater treatment facili-
               ties.  Treatment improvements are not sufficient to counteract population growth.
            •  Oil and Grease:  The petroleum and organic chemicals industries are major
               sources.
REGIONAL
Regional trends are similar to national trends.  Large increases in dissolved
solids are expected in all regions as a result of increased electrical genera-
tion capacity.
Discharges of all pollutants are expected to be highest in 2000 in the Middle
Atlantic, Southeast, Great Lakes and South Central U.S. (Regions III, IV, V, and
VI).

                      CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS


The results presented represent point-source discharges by industrial and munic-
ipal sources; although most major polluting industries have been included, recent
changes in industrial composition may not be reflected.
The dissolved solids estimate does not include discharges from municipal waste-
water treatment facilities.
The imposition of BAT standards on industrial effluents is assumed to lag two
years behind the 1983 deadline set in the 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control
Act (FWPCA).
If compliance schedules change or if final BCT limitations deviate from esti-
mated BAT standards, projections would differ.
Projections do not include non-point source discharges.  Water pollution from
non-point sources is estimated to greatly exceed the discharges from point
sources.
                                               27

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                   NATIONAL TRENDS IN POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES

                                             DETAIL
 Biochemical
 Oxygen
 Demand
•  The total generation of BOD by point sources is  projected  to  increase about 65
   percent between 1975 and 2000 due to population  and economic  growth.

•  Net discharges of BOD are projected to decrease  by about 30 percent between
   1975 and 2000 due to compliance with effluent limitations  guidelines  by indus-
   trial and municipal point sources.

•  Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the major point  source of BOD, ac-
   counting for about 50 percent of net discharges  in 1975.   By  2000,  this propor-
   tion is expected to increase to 85 percent.   BOD removal requirements for
   municipal facilities are assumed to be less  stringent than those imposed on
   industry.

•  The pulp and paper industry is projected to  be a large source of BOD in 1975
   and 2000.  A process shift and improvement in removal efficiencies  expected
   during the projection period should decrease BOD loadings  from the  pulp and
   paper industry.

•  The proportion of total generation of BOD accounted for by municipal wastewater
   treatment plants decreases between 1975 and  2000.  But the proportion of net
   discharges attributable to municipal facilities  is expected to increase over
   the period because removal requirements for  municipal facilities are assumed to
   be less stringent than those imposed on industry.
Suspended     •  The total generation of suspended solids by point sources is projected to
Solids           triple between 1975 and 2000 due to population and economic growth.

              •  Net discharges are expected to decrease sharply due to compliance with effluent
                 limitations guidelines by industrial and municipal point sources.
                                           28

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              •  The coal preparation industry would remain, by far, the largest generator of
                 suspended solids throughout the projection period.  However, virtually all is
                 abated.

              •  The largest discharges of suspended solids in 1975 were from municipal waste-
                 water treatment plants, the aluminum, and pulp and paper industries.   Together
                 these sources accounted for about 65 percent of total discharges.  By 2000,
                 these industries are expected to achieve a high level of pollutant control,
                 reducing discharges to very low levels.  Municipal treatment plants are
                 projected to achieve a lower level of control than industry by 2000,  and are
                 expected to account for about three-fourths of net discharges in that year.


Dissolved     •  The generation of dissolved solids by point sources is expected to double
Solids           between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth conditions.

              •  Net discharges are also expected to double over the projection period;  little
                 abatement of dissolved solids is anticipated.

              •  Although water quality criteria for dissolved solids exist, there are no
                 national effluent guidelines.  Control of dissolved solids typically  occurs
                 coincidentally in the control of other pollutants.

              •  Electric utilities are the largest sources of dissolved solids discharges
                 throughout the projection period.  In 2000, coal-fired and nuclear-fueled
                 utilities are expected to account for about 60 percent of all dissolved solids
                 discharges.

              •  An important industrial source of dissolved solids is the chemicals industry.
                 The organic chemicals industry accounts for about 15 percent of total dis-
                 charges throughout the projection period.  The inorganic chemicals industry  is
                 the largest generator of dissolved solids; however, much of this is abated in
                 the control of other pollutants.

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               •   Coal mining and preparation is a large energy-related source of dissolved
                  solids.

Nitrogen       •   The generation of nitrogen compounds by point sources is expected to increase
                  by about one-third between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth assump-
                  tions.

               •   Net discharges are expected to increase slightly during this period.  Removal
                  of other pollutants by industrial and municipal sources is expected to remove
                  some nitrogen from wastewaters coincidentally.  Nitrogen effluent limitations
                  imposed on facilities which discharge into water quality limited receiving
                  waters also decrease discharges.  These two factors, coincidental removal and
                  nitrogen effluent limitations, offset the effect of economic growth.

               •   Municipal wastewater treatment plants are expected to be the major point source
                  of nitrogen throughout the projection period.  Net discharge trends follow
                  total generation trends because treatment to remove nitrogen is not assumed to
                  be adopted on a widespread basis.  More sophisticated treatment requiring chem-
                  ical or additional biological processes is needed to remove significant quanti-
                  ties of nitrogen from municipal sewage wastewaters.

              •   The meat processing industry was a major industrial nitrogen discharger in
                  1975.  However, coincidental removal of nitrogen is expected to considerably
                  reduce the relative importance of this industry over the projection period.


Phosphorus    •  The generation of phosphorus compounds by point sources is projected to
                  increase slightly and net discharges to decline slightly under high economic
                 growth conditions between 1975 and 2000.  The decline in net discharges is
                  attributable to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by industrial
                  and municipal sources.
                                               30

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              •  Municipal wastewater treatment is, by far, the most significant point source of
                 phosphorus, accounting for about 85 percent of total net discharges in 1975 and
                 95 percent in 2000.  Discharges from municipal plants decrease despite in-
                 creases in municipal waste loads.  The reduction in net discharges is attrib-
                 utable to two factors:  the coincidental removal of phosphorus in secondary
                 treatment and the lower phosphate concentrations in sewage.

              •  Nationally, industry is not a major source of phosphorus.


Oil and       •  The oil and grease pollutant category includes thousands of  organic compounds.
Grease           It is a concern because of toxicity to aquatic organisms, biochemical oxygen
                 demand, and capacity to foul shorelines and beaches.

              •  The generation of oil and grease as a pollutant is expected  to increase about
                 60 percent between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth  conditions.  Net
                 discharges are expected to decline about 30 percent during this period.

              •  The meat processing industry is expected to generate the most oil and grease
                 throughout the 1975 and 2000 period, but the major net discharger is expected
                 to be the petroleum industry.  Oil and grease compounds discharged by this
                 industry are potentially more harmful than natural oil and grease from meat
                 processing.
                                           31

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                    REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGE  TRENDS

                                             DETAIL
Region I     •  Discharges of BOD, suspended solids, nitrogen,  phosphorus,  and oil and grease
                are projected to decrease between 1975 and 2000.   Dissolved solids discharges
                would double due primarily to increases in generation capacity by nuclear
                facilities.

             •  Discharges of point-source water pollutants are projected to be low in 2000 in
                Region I, compared to other regions.


Region II    •  Dissolved solids discharges are projected to nearly double due to increased
                nuclear generation capacity, and chemical production.

             •  Discharges of nutrients also increase slightly, whereas in most regions
                nutrients decline.  The increase may be a result of the Federal Construction
                Grants Program.  Large amounts of nutrients in wastewaters from homes that were
                previously unsewered would be treated by municipal facilities under this program.

             •  Discharges of BOD, suspended solids and oil and grease are projected to de-
                crease by 2000.

             •  Point-source water pollutant discharges are projected to be moderate in Region
                II in 2000, compared to other regions.

Region III   •  An expected near doubling in discharges of dissolved solids is attributed  to
                increases in electricity generation and coal mining activities.
                                            32

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             •  Discharges of other water pollutants would decrease or remain constant between
                1975 and 2000.

             •  Point-source discharges of BOD, suspended and dissolved solids and oil and grease
                would be high in 2000 in Region III, compared to other regions.   Discharges of
                nutrients would be moderate.


Region IV    •  Dissolved solids discharges are expected to more than double due to increased
                electricity generation by coal-fired and nuclear-fueled utilities.  The highest
                regional dissolved solids discharges in 2000 are expected to occur in Region IV.

             •  The Southeast is also projected to receive the highest regional nitrogen and
                phosphorus discharges in 2000.  Municipal wastewater treatment facilities are
                the largest point source of nutrients.

             •  Discharges of BOD, suspended solids and oil and grease are projected to de-
                cline by 2000.  Discharges of these pollutants will nevertheless be
                comparatively high in Region IV.
Region V
Discharges in 2000 are lower than discharges in 1975 for most pollutants.   Sus-
pended solids and oil and grease discharges decline dramatically.   Only dis-
solved solids discharges are projected to increase due to coal-fired and
nuclear-fueled utilities.
             •  Despite projected declines, Region V is projected to have the highest regional
                BOD and suspended solids discharges in 2000.  Discharges of dissolved solids and
                nitrogen are projected to be the second highest, regionally in 2000.
Region VI
Discharges of dissolved solids would more than double between 1975 and 2000  due
to increased production of chemicals coupled with only marginal improvements in
wastewater treatment for dissolved solids.
                                             33

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             •  Discharges of BOD, suspended solids and oil and grease  are  expected to remain
                relatively constant or decline over the projection period.

             •  Region VI is projected to receive the highest regional  oil  and grease loadings
                in 2000.  The primary source of these loadings is the petroleum industry.
                Nutrient loadings would also be high compared to other  regions.

Region VII   •  Discharges of all pollutants except dissolved solids are expected to remain re-
                latively constant or decrease between 1975 and 2000.  Suspended solids and oil
                and grease discharges are expected to be the lowest, regionally, in 2000.
                Discharges of other water pollutants would also be low.
Region VIII
•  Discharges of dissolved solids are expected to nearly double between 1975 and
   2000 due to energy production activities  such as coal mining and electricity
   generation.  Nitrogen discharges would also increase.

•  BOD, suspended solids, phosphorus, and oil and grease discharges are projected
   to decrease.  Region VIII would receive comparatively low loadings of water
   pollutants from point-sources in 2000.  Loadings were also low in 1975.
Region IX    •  Dissolved solids discharges are expected to more than triple over the projection
                period due to increased generation capacity and chemicals production.  Nitrogen
                discharges also would increase.

             •  BOD, suspended solids and phosphorus discharges are expected to decline during
                the forecast period.

             •  Compared to other regions, Region IX would receive moderate discharges of water
                pollutants from point sources in 2000.
                                             34

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Region X     •  Dissolved solids discharges are expected to more than quadruple between 1975 and
                2000 due to increased electricity generation by coal-fired and nuclear-fueled
                utilities.  However, Region X would still have the lowest regional discharges of
                dissolved solids in 2000.

             •  Discharges of nutrients are also expected to be the lowest of all regions in 2000.

             •  Region X is expected to experience the most notable increases in discharges of
                oil and grease (450 percent) due to development of Alaskan oil.  By 2000, dis-
                charges of this pollutant would be moderate compared to other regions.
                                             35

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  Trends in Point-Source
Water Pollutant Discharges
        Region V
30.62
               Net Discharges
                  Olher
                  Municipal Sewag
                  Pulp S, Paper
                  Electric Utilities
                  Sleel
                                   1975 2000

                                   Oil & Grease
                                                                                    Region V Summary
                                                                                      Water Pollutants
                                                               Major Sources 1975-2000 are
                                                               Municipal Treatment Facilities
                                                               and Electric Utilities.

                                                               Dissolved Solids Increase—
                                                               Coal-Fired Electric Utilities.

                                                               BOD, Suspended Solids, Nitrogen,
                                                               Phosphorus and Oil and Grease Decrease.
                                                    $6

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                                           HIGHLIGHTS
   Discharges of all point-source water pollutants except dissolved solids are expected to
   decrease.  A projected increase of 65 percent in discharges of dissolved solids is attributed
   to increased electric power generation.

   Despite projected decreases, Region V is projected to have the highest regional discharges of
   BOD, suspended solids, nitrogen and oil and grease in 2000.
   BOD

   Suspended
   Solids
•  Dissolved
   Solids

•  Nitrogen and
   Phosphorus

•  Oil and
   Grease
Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the largest source.

Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the largest source.  The steel
industry is a large contributor in 1975; however its contribution to the
total in 2000 is insignificant.

Major source is energy production - coal mining and preparation and
utilities.  The chemicals industry is also a major contributor.

Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the major source.
Releases from crude petroleum import operations and the chemicals industry
are the major sources in 2000.  The steel industry accounts for 75 percent
of discharges in 1975, however its contribution drops to 5 percent by 2000.
The anticipated shift away from open hearth steelmaking would curtail net
discharges.

                CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS
   The data presented represent .point-source discharges of water  pollutants from industrial and
   municipal sources.  Although most major polluting industries have been  included, recent changes
   in industrial composition may not be reflected.  The vast majority  of Region V  is  expected  to
   be served by advanced municipal treatment plants by 2000  (U.S.  Environmental Protection
   Agency, 1976 Needs Survey;  Cost Estimates for Construction of Publicly-Owned Wastewater
   Treatment Facilities, Washington, D.C., 1977).

   Trends in dissolved solid releases depend on assumptions  of utility growth  in Region V and  on
   the inclusion of cooling tower blowdown as a point-source discharge.
                                              37

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                       TRENDS IN POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
                                            REGION V

                                             DETAIL
Biochemical
Oxygen
Demand
•  The total generation of BOD by point sources in Region V is  projected to
   increase about 70 percent between 1975 and  2000 due  to population and economic
   growth.

•  Net discharges of BOD are projected to decrease by about 30  percent  between
   1975 and 2000 due to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by indus-
   trial and municipal point sources.

•  Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the major  point source of  BOD,  ac-
   counting for about 60 percent of net discharges in 1975.  By 2000,  this propor-
   tion is expected to increase to 75 percent.   BOD removal requirements for
   municipal facilities are assumed to be less  stringent than those imposed on
   industry.

•  The pulp and paper industry is projected to  be the major industrial source of
   BOD between 1975 and 2000.   A process shift  and improvement  in removal effi-
   ciencies expected during this time period should decrease BOD loadings from
   industry.
Suspended     •  The total generation of suspended solids by point sources in Region V is pro-
Solids           jected to increase by 150 percent between 1975 and 2000 due to population and
                 economic growth.

              •  Net discharges are expected to decrease sharply due to compliance with effluent
                 limitations guidelines by industrial and municipal point sources.
                                            38

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              •  The coal preparation industry would remain, by far, the largest generator of
                 suspended solids throughout the projection period.  However, virtually all is
                 abated^

              •  The largest net discharges of suspended solids in 1975 were from municipal
                 wastewater treatment plants, the steel industry, and the pulp and paper indus-
                 try.  Together these sources accounted for about three-fourths of net dis-
                 charges.  By 2000, the industries are expected to achieve a high level of pol-
                 lutant control, reducing discharges to very low levels.  Municipal treatment
                 plants are projected to achieve a lower level of control than industry by 2000,
                 and are expected to account for about three-fourths of total discharges in that
                 year.


Dissolved     •  The total generation of dissolved solids by point sources in Region V is
Solids           expected to nearly double between 1975 and 2000.

              •  Net discharges are expected to increase by about 65 percent over the projection
                 period.  Little abatement of dissolved solids is anticipated.

              •  Although water quality criteria for dissolved solids exist, there are no ef-
                 fluent guidelines.  Some control of dissolved solids typically occurs
                 coincidentally in the control of other pollutants.

              •  Electric utilities are the largest source of dissolved solids discharges
                 throughout the projection period.  In 2000, coal-fired and nuclear-fueled
                 utilities are expected to account for about 70 percent of all dissolved solids
                 discharges.

              •  Coal mining and preparation is another large energy-related source of dissolved
                 solids in Region V.

              •  An important industrial source of dissolved solids is the chemicals industry
                 which accounts for about 10 percent of net discharges throughout the projection
                 period.
                                               39

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Nitrogen      •  The total generation of nitrogen compounds in Region V is  expected  to  increase
                 by about 30 percent between 1975 and 2000.

              •  Net discharge levels in 2000 are expected  to  be  comparable  to  those  in 1975.
                 Removal of other pollutants from wastewater by industrial  and  municipal sources
                 is expected to remove some nitrogen coincidentally.   Nitrogen  effluent
                 limitations imposed on facilities which discharge into water quality limited
                 receiving waters also decreases discharges.  These two factors,  coincidental
                 removal and nitrogen effluent limitations, offset the effect of  economic
                 growth.

              •  Municipal wastewater treatment plants are  expected to be the major  point-
                 source discharger of nitrogen throughout the projection period.   Net discharge
                 trends follow total generation trends because treatment to remove nitrogen is
                 not assumed to be adopted on a widespread  basis.  More sophisticated treatment
                 requiring chemical or additional biological processes is needed  to  remove sig-
                 nificant quantities of nitrogen from municipal sewage wastewaters.

              •  The meat products processing industry was  a major industrial nitrogen dis-
                 charger in 1975.  However, coincidental removal of nitrogen is expected to con-
                 siderably reduce the relative importance of this industry over the  projection
                 period •


Phosphorus    •  The total generation of phosphorus compounds is projected to increase slightly
                 and net discharges to decline about 35 percent between 1975 and  2000.  The de-
                 cline in net discharges is attributable to compliance with effluent limitations
                 guidelines by industrial and municipal sources.

              •  Municipal wastewater treatment is, by far, the most significant point source of
                 phosphorus, accounting for about 85 percent of total net discharges in 1975 and
                 95 percent in 2000.  Discharges from municipal plants decrease despite increa-
                 ses in municipal waste loads.  The reduction in net discharges is attributable
                 to two factors:  the coincidental removal  of phosphorus in secondary treatment
                 and decreased use of phosphate detergents.
                                               40

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Oil and       •  The oil and grease pollutant category includes thousands of organic compounds.
Grease           It is a concern because of toxicity to aquatic organisms, biochemical oxygen
                 demand, and capacity to foul shorelines and beaches.

              •  The total generation of oil and grease as a pollutant is expected to increase
                 about 50 percent between 1975 and 2000 in Region V.  Net discharges are ex-
                 pected to decline about 80 percent during this period.

              •  The petroleum and the chemicals industries are the major dischargers of oil and
                 grease in 2000.  Major industrial sources of oil and grease in 1975 are the
                 steel and meat products processing industries.  By 2000, the contribution of
                 the steel industry to total.discharges is small.  The anticipated shift away
                 from open hearth steelmaking and assumed compliance with effluent limitations
                 would curtail net discharges.
Municipal
Wastewater
Treatment
Population in Region V is expected to grow from about 45 million in 1975 to
about 50 million in 2000, an increase of 10 percent.

Over 75 percent of the population was served by municipal wastewater treatment
plants in 1975; about 35 percent was secondary or advanced treatment.

By 2000, over 95 percent of the population in Region V is expected be be served
by municipal treatment plants.  Nearly all of the plants will be secondary or
advanced.  Almost three-quarters of the population is expected to be served by
tertiary plants.
                                               41

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Trends in Solid Waste Generation from Pollution Control
                        Region V
        Other
        Cement
       , Asphalt
     Hfl Steel
        Industrial Combustion	

     ~^-; Coal-Fired Utilities

NOTE: The projections presented here include
    Solid wastes from pollution control only.
       19752000  1975 2000  1975 2000
    Noncombustible Industrial  Municipal
      Solid Waste    Sludge Sewage Sludge
                                                                                                       Region V Summary
                                                                                             Solid Waste from Pollution Control
                                                                                  Major Source of NCSW and Industrial
                                                                                  Sludge in 2000 Is Coal-Fired Utilities.
                                                                                  Sewage Sludge Generated by
                                                                                  Municipal Facilities.

                                                                                  NCSW, Industrial Sludge and Municipal
                                                                                  Sewage Sludge Increase.
                                                                     42

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                    TRENDS IN SOLID WASTE GENERATION FROM POLLUTION CONTROL
                                            REGION V

                                           HIGHLIGHTS
•  The solid waste generated through abatement of air and water pollutants is expected to
   increase between 1975 and 2000 in Region V.

•  Coal combustion, municipal wastewater treatment, and the steel industry are the major sources
   of solid waste.

•  Generation of industrial sludge is projected to increase nearly nine-fold between 1975 and
   2000.

•  Generation of noncombustible solid waste is projected to double between 1975 and 2000.

•  Generation of municipal sewage sludge is projected to increase by about 50 percent between
   1975 and 2000.

•  Some of the wastes generated, particularly those included as industrial sludge, may be clas-
   sified under the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) as hazardous wastes.

                                            CAVEATS


•  Projections are limited to solid wastes generated by removal of air and water pollutants.

•  Projections are based on dry tons.

•  Industrial sludge projection does not include solid wastes from industrial wastewater
   treatment.

•  All SOX scrubbers are nonregenerable.
                                            43

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                     NATIONAL PROJECTIONS OF ANNUAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION
                                     (106 Tons Per Year)
Type of Waste
Industrial
Municipal
Mining
Secondary
Silvicultural
Animal
Demolition
1975
14
138
2,300
95
169
2,000
90
2000
20
220
5,800 - 7,300
350
276
2,700
150**
  Secondary solid wastes are solid wastes from pollution control
**1990 Estimate

Source:  Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Outlook 1980, EPA 600/8-80-003,
         Washington, D.C., December 1979.  (Draft)
                                             44

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                    TRENDS IN SOLID WASTE GENERATION FROM POLLUTION CONTROL
                                            REGION V

                                             DETAIL
Noncombustible
Solid
Waste
•  Annual generation of noncombustible solid waste  in Region V is expected
   to double between 1975 and 2000.   This growth rate is much lower than the
   national growth rate.

•  The major source of noncombustible solid waste is coal-fired electric util-
   ities.  By 2000, new and converted utilities account for 60 percent of gen-
   eration.

•  The construction materials industry is the major non-energy contributor to
   noncombustible solid waste generation, accounting for 15 percent of the
   total in 1975 and 2000.
Industrial
Sludge
   Annual industrial sludge generation in Region V is expected to increase
   almost 9-fold between 1975 and 2000.   This growth rate is less than the
   national rate.

   In 1975, the major sources were the asphalt and steel industries.  In 2000,
   the major source is expected to be new coal-fired utilities (combustion re-
   siduals and secondary sludges from pollution control devices).
Municipal
Sewage Sludge
   As a result of projected population growth and improved treatment, municipal
   sewage sludge generation is expected to increase by about 50 percent over
   the 1975 level by 2000, a growth rate nearly matching that of the nation as
   a whole.
 Captured particulates and bottom ash from combustion processes  and captured dust from numer-
 ous production activities.

                                           45

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                     Air Pollutant Trends
                     Water Pollutant Trends
                     Solid Waste Generation Trends
                  Selected Special Topics for Region V
                          Threats to Human Health
                           • Toxic Substances
                           • Hazardous Wastes and Spills

                          Threats to Ecosystems
                           • Chemical Deposition


                          Environmental Policy Dilemmas
                           • Energy Demand
                           • Fuel Substitution
                           • Synthetic Fuels
47

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        Toxic Substances
• Exposure can occur through everyday activities
• Effects can be acute or remain latent for decades

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                              TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT

                                           HIGHLIGHTS
INTRODUCTION


•  This series of slides presents:  evidence of widespread exposure to toxics; trends in
   production of some toxic chemicals; trends in hazardous wastes generation; and a brief
   description of ORD efforts in the area of emergency spill control.

•  Exposure to toxic substances is a frequent occurrence to which no one is immune.

•  The principal hazard to most people appears to be from chronic exposures, the effects result-
   ing from prolonged or repeated exposures to chemical agents in the environment.  Some occupa-
   tional situations or accidents result in acute toxic effects,  which may lead to impairment
   of bodily function or death.
                                              49

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                        Pesticides in Mothers' Milk
                                   Mid-1970's
Compound
DDE
DDT
Dieldrin
Heptachlor epoxide
Oxychlordane
(3-BHC
PCBs
Number
Positive
(Percent)
100
99
81
64
63
87
30b
Mean of
Positive
(ug/kg fat)a
3,521
529
164
91
96
183
2,076
Maximum
(ug/kg fat)
214,167
34,369
123,000
2,050
5,700
9,217
12,600

b99 percent detectable PCBs: (30 percent ^1,100 ug per kilogram of fat;
 1,038 women).
Source: Adapted from Ames, B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemicals
      Causing Mutations and Cancers," Science, Vol. 204,1979, pp. 582-593.
        ChJorinated Hydrocarbon Residues in Human Fata
                                 Mid-1970's
Compound
PCB
Hexachlorobenzene
• BHC (Lindane)
Oxychlordane
Trans-nonachlor
Heptachlor epoxide
Dieldrin
p,p'-DDE
o.p'-DDT
p,p'-TDE
p,p'-DDT
Amount""
(ug/kg Wet Weight)
907
62
65
55
65
43
69
2,095
31
6
439
Percentage of Samples
Containing Residues
100
100
88
97
99
100
100
100
63
26
100
aAverage of 168 Canadian Samples: Most are carcinogens.
bValues are means.
Source: Adapted from Ames, B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemicals
      Causing Mutations and Cancers," Science, Vol. 201, 1979, p. 587.
                                                                                              50

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                           TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT

                                        HIGHLIGHTS
Benzene, a known carcinogen, is found in many household items  including  denatured alcohol,
carburetor cleaner, rubber cement for patch kits,  and arts and craft supplies.

Individuals living near roads and highways may face up to nine times the normal risk of de-
veloping cancer due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons  emitted  by  automobiles.

2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), an acknowledged toxicant,  is a common contaminant
in certain widely-used pesticides; e.g., 2,4,5-T and Silvex.   This chemical  has been shown to
be toxic at exposure levels as low as 500 parts per trillion (monkeys) and carcinogenic at
exposure levels as low as 5 parts per trillion (rats).

In general, environmentally-related cancers do not become evident  for  15 to  40  years after
exposure.  However, the latency period can be as short as 2 years  or as  long as 50 years.

Increases in smoking have been reflected in increases in the incidence of lung  cancer 20 to
25 years later.

The table on the left shows that significant amounts of many  toxic substances,  some  of which
are carcinogens, have been found in human milk. The table on  the right  shows that residues of
toxics have also been found in human body fat.  A high percentage  of samples contain
detectable residues of toxic substances.
                                            51

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                              TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT

                                             DETAIL
Exposure Pathways

•  Exposure to toxic substances is a commonplace occurrence.  Toxic substances are present in:

   - air
   - water
   - food
   - materials

•  Individuals come in contact with toxics in many places:

   - work
   - home
   - recreation

•  The Hudson River is contaminated with numerous toxic substances including PCBs, benzene,
   xylene, cyclohexane, tetrahydrofuran, toluene and chloroform.  These substances pose a health
   threat to the 150,000 people in upstate New York who drink treated river watert and are harm-
   ful to aquatic life.  The Great Lakes are also contaminated with many toxic substances such
   as PCBs.
                                            52

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Effects of Exposure

•  Toxic effects may remain latent for decades or can be instantly obvious.

•  A study conducted by Reznik et_ al., attempts to establish a link between a research chemist's
   exposure to BIS (chloromethyl) ether and his death twelve years later from a pulmonary
   adenocarcinoma (Reznik, G. , et al.  "Lung Cancer Following Exposure to BIS (chloromethyl)
   ether:  A Case Report."  J. Environ. Pathol. Toxicol.,  1 (1),  105-111, 1978.)

•  Toxic substances and human exposure is addressed in three different ways in this briefing:

   - toxic chemicals production
   - hazardous waste
   - oil and hazardous substances spills

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 Selected Trends in
Chemical Production
     1968-2000
                   Millions
                   of Tons
                             20.0
                             18.0
                             14.0
                             10.0
                                          Chlorine/BTXAroma|)cs
                                             32'V	
Vinyl Chloride
Ethylene Dichloride
                                                                Benzene
                                                                Acrylonitrile
                            Year 1970 19751978  1985
                                   Historical  Projected
                                                             2000
                                                     Chemical Production in Region V
Industry
1972 SIC Code
2865
2869
286947
2879
2892
2812
2813
2816
2819
Name
Cyclic Crudes and
Intermediates
Industrial Organic
Chemicals NEC3
Technical Pesticides
(Production and Formulation)
Explosives
Alkalines and Chlorine
Industrial Gases
Inorganic Pigments
Industrial Inorganic
Chemicals NECa
Percent of National
Total in Region

11
5

14
24
14
28
5
11
                                                                                                       'NEC = Not Elsewhere Classified.
                                                                                      54

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                         PRODUCTION TRENDS FOR SELECTED: TOXIC  CHEMICALS

                                              HIGHLIGHTS
•  Production and use  of chemicals has  increased dramatically since  1950.   Aggregated chemical
   industry production figures may indicate potential  exposure to toxics in the environment.

•  Based  on industry figures for six  selected toxic  chemicals, production of toxics  has shown
   strong growth in the past and is expected to continue this pattern.   Vinyl chloride has been
   the  subject of considerable regulatory action.  Benzene and acrylonitrile have been identi-
   fied by EPA as priority pollutants.

•  A large portion of  national production in several chemical industries is located  in Region V:
   technical pesticides, explosives,  alkalines and chlorine, and industrial gases.

•  Several products of the above industries have been  classified as  priority pollutants,  includ-
   ing  lindane, chlordane, and dinitrotoluene.

                                     Chemical Production in Region V
SIC
2865
2869
28694X
2879
2892
2812
2813
2816
2819
Industry
Cyclic Crudes and
In termediatea
Industrial Organic
Chemic-als NEC
and Technical Organic Pest
Controls (Pesticides)
Explosives
Alkalines and Chlorine
Industrial Gases
Inorganic Pigments
Industrial Inorganics
Percent of National
Production (Tons)
Selected Products in Region Va
Benzene, Ethylene Dichloride
Chlorobenzene, Phenol
Acrylonitrile. Chloroform
Ch 1 o rome thane
Biachloromethylether .
Chlordane,* Lindane, Endrin*
Nitroglycerin, Dinitrotoluene*
Chlorine
Acetylene, Helium

Hydrofluoric acid, Chromates
11
5
14
24
14
28
5
11
              ^Compound on Section 311 Clean Water Act Priority Pollutants List.
              "Based-on 1972 Census of Manufactures data.

              "The product-ion of pigments involves the use of many toxic metals including such priority
               pollutants  as chromium,, zinc, mercury, and selenium.
                                                 55

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                         PRODUCTION TRENDS FOR SELECTED TOXIC CHEMICALS

                                             DETAIL
•  Trends in the production of six chemicals are discussed

      chlorine
   -  BTX aromatics
      ethylene dichloride
   -  vinyl chloride
   -  benzene
   -  acrylonitrile

These chemicals were chosen for discussion because they are major feedstocks or intermediates in
the production of toxic chemicals and are toxic themselves.  These chemicals are used as
indicators of trends in the production of toxics.

•  Chlorine

   -  Annual production has increased at a rate of about 2.6 percent per year between 1968 and
      1978 according to industry figures.

   -  This rate of growth is expected to increase to nearly 5.0 percent per year between 1978
      and 2000.

      Chlorine is an essential feedstock in the production of chlorinated organic compounds,
      the bulk of which are toxic and/or carcinogenic.

•  BTX Aromatics

   -  BTX aromatics (Benzene, Toluene, Xylene) are major feedstocks in the production of organic
      chemicals.

   -  The historic growth rate of almost 5 percent per year (1968-1978) is expected to decline
      to about 4 percent per year in the period 1978-2000.


                                             56

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•  Vinyl Chloride

   -  Vinyl chloride is a known toxicant and  carcinogen.   Production of  this  chemical
      increased at an annual rate of nearly 9 percent  between 1968  and 1978.

      Production of vinyl chloride  is expected to increase at an annual rate of  over  7  percent
      between 1978 and 2000.

•  Ethylene Bichloride (1,2-dichloroethane)

   -  Ethylene dichloride production is expected to grow  at a rate  of 5.0 percent per  year
      between 1978 and 2000.  This growth is  slower than  the over 8 percent per year growth
      exhibited between 1968 and 1978.

   -  Ethylene dichloride has been identified under Section 307  of  the Clean  Water Act as a
      priority pollutant and is an intermediate in the production of vinyl chloride and  other
      chemicals.

•  Benzene

   -  Annual production of benzene is expected to grow at a rate of about 4 percent per  year
      between 1978 and 2000, continuing the pattern set between 1968 and 1978.

   -  Benzene, a known carcinogen, is a major chemical feedstock and has been identified in air
      samples taken in and around the Love Canal dumpsite.

•  Acrylonitrile

   -  Acrylonitrile production grew at a rate of over  5 percent per year between  1968  and 1978.
      Significantly slower growth is expected between  1978  and 2000.

   -  Acrylonitrile, also a priority pollutant, is a major  chemical intermediate.
                                               57

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                               Hazardous Wastes
                            Past Disposal Practices
                     Secure
              Olher   Landlills
             Adequate   (2%)
             Methods
               (2%)
Other Inadequate
   Methods
    (2%)
    Uncontrolled Incineration
          (10%)
"X
                      Non-Secur
                       Landfills
                        (30%)
         \
 Controlled
- Incineration
   (6%)
                                                              Unllned Surface
                                                             - Impoundments
                                                                 (48%)
                                                                   Inadequate Method
                                                                  ' Adequate Method
                                                                        Fraction of
                                                                        1975 Total
                                                                            2.5  	
                                                                            2.0
                                                                                                        1.0  -
                                                                                         National Trends in Hazardous Waste Generation
                                                                         Industries (SIC Code)
                                                                                Other
                                                                                Paper and Allied Products (26)
                                                                                Primary Metals (33)
                                                                                Machinery (except Electrical) (35)
                                                                                Chemicals and Allied Products (28)
                                                                                                                     1965
                                                                                                                                  1970
                                                                                                                                               1975
                                                                                                                                                           1985
                                                                                                                                                                        2000
                                                                                           58

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                                           HIGHLIGHTS
Past         •  Inadequate disposal of hazardous wastes has caused air,  water and land con-
Disposal        tamination and severe health problems.   EPA estimates that only about 10 percent
                of hazardous wastes have been disposed of properly.

Future       •  Final regulations under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) to
Generation      control hazardous wastes are currently being promulgated.   The cost to industry
                of implementing the regulations has been estimated by EPA at about $510 million
                annually.

             •  Nationally, hazardous waste generation is expected to double between 1975 and
                2000.

             •  The chemicals and allied products industry is expected to  be the major industry
                generating hazardous wastes throughout the projection period.

             •  Hazardous Waste Site Enforcement and Response System

                -  Immediate EPA response to the hazardous waste site problem.
                -  Regional records of all reported sites, whether known to present a hazard or
                   not.  Of 5,540 sites logged through April 30, 1980,  661 sites are located in
                   Region V.
                -  Supported by $10 million in site investigation contracts and $1 million in
                   sample analysis contracts.

                                            CAVEATS

•  These projections do not include hazardous wastes from households, hospitals, coal-fired
   utilities, or industrial wastewater treatment.

•  The projections presented here are based on 1975 hazardous waste generation estimates.   Pro-
   jections for other years were made using earnings projections for each  Standard Industrial
   Classification (SIC) code and the 1975 base estimates.  Detail of methodology is presented in
   Appendix B.

•  The projections for future years do not take into account any changes in production processes
   or recycling that may arise because of the RCRA regulations.   Such effects are the subject of
   a chapter of Environmental Outlook 1981, in preparation.
                                               59

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                              TRENDS IN HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION

                                             DETAIL
Trends

•  Annual national hazardous waste generation is estimated to have increased 30 percent between
   1965 and 1975.  This is equivalent to an average annual growth rate  of  nearly 3  percent.
   Most of this growth occurred between 1965 and 1970.

•  Annual hazardous waste generation is expected to more than double in the period  1975 to  2000.
   This is an expected annual growth rate of about 3.5  percent.   The growth in annual  generation
   is expected to be much faster in the period 1985-2000 than in the period 1975-1985.

•  Annual generation of hazardous wastes in Region V is expected to more than double between
   1975 and 2000, roughly tracking the national trend.

Sources

•  The chemicals and allied products industry is estimated to be the major source of hazardous
   wastes in all projection years.

•  Three other industries, machinery, primary metals, and paper and allied products, are also
   estimated to be significant sources in all years, according to these estimates.

•  In Region V, the three major generating industries in 1975 were the  chemicals and allied
   products industry (about 8 million wet tons), the primary metals industry (about 2  million
   wet tons),  and the machinery industry (about 2 million wet tons).  These three industries are
   expected to remain the major generating industries throughout the projection period.

Inadequate Disposal

•  According to EPA estimates, about 90 percent of hazardous wastes have been disposed of inade-
   quately,  despite the fact that numerous techniques exist to reduce the volume of hazardous
   wastes and/or insure their safe disposal.  Among these are:

   -  secure landfills
   -  controlled incineration

                                             60

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   -  controlled deep well injection
   -  biological/chemical treatment
   -  waste exchanges/resource recovery

•  Hazardous wastes disposed of inadequately in the past are a critical problem now.  There may
   be a considerable time delay between the disposal of a hazardous waste and its impact on
   human health and the environment.

Location

•  As of April 30, 1980, EPA has entered a total of 5,540 sites into the Hazardous Waste Site
   Tracking System.  Of these, 1,044 have been inspected, 120 tentative dispositions made, and
   19 suits filed.*  The States have filed an additional 46 suits.  EPA and the State of
   California have jointly filed a suit against Hooker Chemical Company concerning Hooker's
   Lathrop, California site.

•  Some 661 sites from Region V have been entered into the tracking system.  Of these sites, 189
   have been inspected.  Suits have been filed on 6 of the sites.

Future Disposal

•  Subtitle C of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) provides for the identi-
   fication of hazardous wastes, institution of a system to track wastes through their life cy-
   cle, and establishment of a permit system.  Final regulations are being promulgated now.

•  The cost of RCRA to industry has been estimated by EPA to be $510 million annually.

•  The Great Lakes Basin Plan contains a section on hazardous materials with more than 30
   recommendations, including the following

   -  state facility siting boards
   -  common manifest system
   -  waste exchanges
   -  guidelines for establishing site liability
''EPA filed 2 additional suits between 5/1/80 and 5/16/80.

                                             61

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      ORD Emergency Spill Response Program
             Objectives


         Demonstrate Spill
         Control Technologies and
         Techniques
         Identify Safe Ultimate
         Disposal Methods
 Program Areas


Prevention
Notification and Response
Control and Removal
Ultimate Disposal
Fate and Effects
Restoration
62

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                                        HIGHLIGHTS
Approximately 15,000 spills occur annually in the U.S.

Between October 1977 and September 1979 over 470 hazardous materials spills were reported to
the Region V office.

Current estimates for Region V:

    1,000 to 1,200 oil and hazardous materials spills per year (many spills go unreported)
-   about 20 percent are hazardous material spills

Eleven significant spills occurred in Region V between 1979 and 1980 (to date):

-   Seymour, Indiana
    Hamilton, Ohio
    Deerfield, Ohio

NOTE:  The determination that a spill is significant is made at EPA Headquarters based on the
       quantity of the spill, extent of property damage, potential for human health impair-
       ment, and the extent of response required.

The left-hand photograph is of clean-up operations at the Deerfield, Ohio site.

The major objectives of the EPA Emergency Spill Response Program are:

1)  to demonstrate technology and techniques for protecting the water,  land and air from
    accidental releases, and

2)  to identify environmentally sound methods for the disposal of contaminated wastes
    associated with cleanup operations.

These objectives are being pursued in six areas of emergency spill R&D:

-   prevention
-   notification and response
-   control and removal
-   ultimate disposal
-   fate and effects
-   restoration
                                           63

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                               OIL AND HAZARDOUS MATERIAL SPILLS

                                             DETAIL
 •   Spills of oil and hazardous substances occur as a result of

    -  accidents
    -  equipment malfunction
    -  human error
    -  deliberate discharge

 •   Results of spills

    -  extensive property damage
    -  personal injury or death from fire and explosion
    -  potential chronic effects, like birth defects or cancer, from exposure to toxic substances
    -  contamination of water supplies
    -  destruction of food supplies
    -  contamination of recreational areas

 •   Approximately 15,000 spills occur annually in the United States.

 •   Over 3000 hazardous materials incidents were reported to EPA regional offices between October
    1977 and September 1979.  Most of these incidents were spills of oil or hazardous substances.

 •   Materials spilled ranged from PCB to alcohol; quantities ranged from less than one pint to
    millions of gallons.

 •   In the October 1977 to September 1979 period over 470 hazardous material spills were reported
    to the Region V office.

•   Region V estimates that between 1,000 and 1,200 occur in the region annually.  About 20
    percent of the spills are of hazardous materials.

•   Eleven significant spills in Region V were reported to EPA in 1979 and 1980  (to date).  The
    determination that a spill is "significant" is made at EPA Headquarters based on the quan-
    tity of the spill, extent of property damage, potential for human health impairment, and the
    extent of response required.

                                            64

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                         SIGNIFICANT SPILLS IN REGION V REPORTED TO EPA
                                     1979 - 1980 (To Date)
     Location
 Date
Incident
 Brooklyn Center, MN    1/08/79    Pesticide plant fire
 Brownsburg, IN
 Inkster, MI
 Wadsworth, OH
*Deerfield, OH

 Millfield, OH

 St. Cloud, MN
 Chicago, IL
 Momence, IL
 Indianapolis, IN
*Seymour, IN

*Hamilton, OH
 1/16/79    Broken pipeline valve
 3/06/79    Unknown
 3/17/79    Vandalized storage tanks
 9/14/79    Dumpsite runoff

 1/13/80    Train derailment

 1/14/80    Pipeline fracture
 2/14/80    Pipe leak
 2/15/80    Train derailment
 2/25/80    Storage tank leak
 3/28/80    Chemical explosion,  runoff

continuing  Potential spill condition
         Material/Volume

Aatrex/20,000 gal.
Atrazine SOW/3,500 Ibs.
Various other chemicals
Oil/at least 20,000 gal.
Oil/at least 50,000 gal.
NR 2 oil/13,000 gal.
MEK, toluene, latex, oils
and Mirex
Toluene diisocyanate/20 tank
cars
Crude oil/200,000 gal.
Sulfuric acid/700 gal.
Ammonium phosphate/50 tons
NR 2 oil/65,000 gal.
Many hazardous substances/
quantities unknown
Various chemicals, polymers,
solvents, etc./20,000 drums
 'Summary of this spill provided.
                                               65

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                                         SPILL SUMMARY

                                        SEYMOUR, INDIANA


Name of Company:  Seymour Recycling

Materials Involved:  50,000 barrels of various chemicals (phenolic materials and benzene) both
                     leaking and intact, plus several large storage tanks.  At least 25 Section
                     311 hazardous substances detected in stream outside north fence of the
                     property.  Area of this site is about 13 acres.

Threat:  The stream outside the north fence of the recycling plant is a tributary to the east
         fork of the White River, which flows to the Wabash River, which merges into the Ohio
         River.

Actions Taken:  The on-site coordinator hired a contractor under Section 311 and is taking the
                following actions:

        identifying materials in drums,
     -  classifying materials by chemical family,
     —  redrumming,
     -  consolidating drums,
     -  activated carbon treatments,
     -  grading to control surface runoff.

Current Cost:  Estimated at $500K under Section 311.

Current Status:  Cleanup effort is estimated to take about two weeks.
                                           66

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                                         SPILL SUMMARY

                                        DEERFIELD,  OHIO


Name of Company:  Summit National Liquid Services

Materials Involved:   Several thousand leaking barrels, a 300,000 gallon cracked and leaking con-
                     crete storage tank and other storage vessels.   These containers  are used to
                     store wastes including acetone,  MEK, toluene,  latex, oils  and Mirex.   Area
                     of this site is about 11 acres.

Threat:  Residents live within 200 feet of this site.  The site presents a fire hazard as  well
         as a possible source of soil and groundwater contamination.   Contamination of local
         drinking water reservoir is also possible.

Actions Taken:  Site has been closed since 1978 by  order of Ohio EPA.   Cleanup  actions are
                currently underway.

Cost:  Cleanup and abatement costs estimated at over  2 million dollars.
                                            67

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                                         SPILL SUMMARY

                                         HAMILTON,  OHIO


Name of Company:  Chemdyne, Inc.

Materials Involved:  20,000 drums of various chemicals, polymers,  solvents,  etc,

Threat:  Chemdyne, Inc. is located in downtown Hamilton, about 1,000 yards from a power plant.
         There was great concern over the disposal  of 17 drums labeled "Nitrocellulose," which
         is potentially explosive when in an unstable state.

Actions Taken:  About 50 drums were moved to gain access to the 17 potentially explosive drums,
                After an initial treatment with a solvent to stabilize the nitrocellulose, one
                drum exploded, with no injuries occurring.   Further sampling revealed only the
                presence of calcium hypochlorite, no nitrocellulose.

Current Cost:  104 Environmental Energy Fund Ceiling stands at $22K.

Current Status:  Response actions to mitigate immediate emergency are completed.

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                              ORD EMERGENCY SPILL RESPONSE PROGRAM

                                             DETAIL
Prevention

•  Determine causes of past spills and feasibility and cost effectiveness of spill prevention.

   -  develop safety technology and protocols for impoundment areas, plants, loading sites and
      storage facilities.

      coordinate effort with DOT to improve transportation safety and reduce accidents.

•  Develop spill prevention techniques and equipment

      level gages
      transfer lines
   -  couplings
      seals
   -  revised oil spill prevention regulations

•  Improve current surveillance and analysis capabilities

      supports all areas of spill response
      assists in contingency planning
   -  assists in analysis of final restoration

•  The above R&D is directed at providing the program offices with technical information for
   promulgating guidelines for establishing a "standard of care."
                                           69

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Notification and Response

•  Protection of response personnel

•  Spill identification and detection

•  Impact prediction

      air
   -  surface and groundwater
   -  land

•  First Priority:  Continued development of personal protective equipment and safety devices
   for spill response personnel

•  Equal Priority:  Preparation of emergency action manual -  situation assessment

   -  identification and detection
   -  confinement
   -  control of air pollution

•  Longer term areas

   -  computer modeling of spill plume movement
   -  development and demonstration of field kits and flowthrough spill alarm systems

Control and Removal

•  Develop and demonstrate control and cleanup equipment and guidelines for acceptable cleanup
   operations.

      focus on., simple equipment which is rapidly deployable for temporary containment
                                           70

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•  Develop and demonstrate technologies for on-site purification, recovery, and separation of
   removed substances from treatment agents and inert materials

   -  directly enhances cost effectiveness of cleanup
      decreases dangers of transport of spill material

•  Develop guidelines and techniques for shoreline protection and restoration

•  Develop and demonstrate techniques for the control of volatile substances (particularly air
   pollution control)

      preparation of emergency manuals
   -  supplement currently available manuals

•  Operation of the Oil and Hazardous Materials Simulated Environmental Test Tank (OHMSETT)

   -  test equipment and techniques
   -  currently testing chemical and biological control agents

Ultimate Disposal

•  Develop or adopt technology for disposing of all non-reuseable contaminated  waste  and site
   debris

•  Program geared to developing novel procedures for

   -  converting refractory organics to C02, water, salts,  etc.
   -  immobilizing toxic constituents
      sophisticated degradative application of microorganisms and nutrients

Fate and Effects

•  Determine ecological effects of acute discharges of hazardous  substances
                                            71

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Restoration

•  Assist  in providing guidelines for assessing the extent of and remedying the damage of a
   hazardous spill without major disruptions of the surrounding ecosystems.

•  Develop and field test experimental techniques and equipment designed to accelerate recovery
   of spill damaged waters and soils through microbial degradation.

Emergency  Spill Equipment Developed By ORD

   Mobile  Physical/Chemical Treatment System
   Cyclic  Colorimeter
   Hazardous Materials Detection Kit
   Organo-phosphate Pesticide Detection and Warning System
   Foam Dike System
   Dynamic Inclined Plane Skimming System
   Acoustic Emission Earth Dam Spill Alert Device
   Mobile Chemical Laboratory
   Spill Assessment Laboratory
   Safety/Decontamination/Office Trailer
   Mobile  Stream Diversion System
   Mobile Froth Flotation System
   Pump/Collection Bag System
   Gelling Agent System
   Spill Alarm System
   Enviro-pod Aerial Monitoring and Surveillance
   Water Jet Boom System

Key Accomplishments

•  Development of standard laboratory testing procedures which will provide information on the
   environmental behavior of chemicals.

•  Development of a mobile system for the high pressure injection of neutralizing chemicals  into
   soil.  This system is an alternative to excavating large volumes of contaminated soil  that
   would require further treatment or disposal.


                                            72

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•  Publication of "Hazardous Materials Spill Monitoring Safety Handbook and Chemical Hazard
   Guide," a document which describes safety precautions,  first aid,  and hazards  from 655
   chemicals.

•  Studies of five indirect acting carcinogens which may be useful in characterizing exposure
   and risk from individual carcinogenic substances.
                                            73

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        Chemical Deposition
 Pollutants we release into the atmosphere
eventually return to the earth—threatening
       the balance of natural systems

• Acid precipitation
• Toxic metals, neutralizing agents, other pollutants
• Interactions after deposition
                                                                         Formation and Deposition of Acidic
                                                                          Organic and Toxic Components
 NO.	~HNO3

^TT,\T^, . Wet and Dry ......
<••..'••'••.:'••''.'••''•. Deposition   .

                  Agricultural Land
                                                                                                     Man
                                                                                        Drinking Water
                                                     74

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                                      CHEMICAL DEPOSITION

                                           HIGHLIGHTS
•  Precipitation acidity apparently results from combustion-produced gases S02 and NOX being
   oxidized to ^804 and HN03, respectively, in the atmosphere.  The acids produced are
   then deposited, wet and dry, on land and water.

•  At present, sulfur and nitrogen are major contributors to the chemical deposition problem.
   Nationally, sulfur emissions are expected to level off throughout the 1980s,  while nitrogen
   emissions continue to increase.  Nitrogen compounds should thus become more important in
   total contribution to the chemical deposition problem.

•  Other substances deposited in precipitation may include toxic metals and organic compounds,
   neutralizing compounds and radioactive particles.  This aspect of chemical deposition is
   receiving further attention as part of Environmental Outlook 1981.

•  Acid deposition has had substantial adverse effects on the environment, including acidifica-
   tion of lakes, rivers, and streams, with measurable damage to aquatic ecosystems.

•  No existing U.S. environmental regulations directly address the acid precipitation problem;
   however, a criteria document on particulates and sulfur oxides is currently being updated by
   EPA's Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office.

•  The goal of EPA's Acid Rain Research Program is to develop an understanding of the mechanisms
   and effects of acid deposition.  To meet this objective,  EPA has outlined objectives for
   monitoring, and for studying atmospheric processes and environmental effects.
                                              75

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                                   CHEMICAL DEPOSITION

                                          DETAIL
Projections suggest increasing acidity of precipitation over the northeastern U.S.   Emissions
of sulfur oxides, the predominant contributor, are expected to level off throughout  the
1980s; however, nitrogen oxides emissions continue to increase.   Recent studies  have shown an
increasingly important contribution from NOX.

Emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels are relatively enriched with several  trace ele-
ments which are potentially toxic to humans.  There is concern that increased use of coal for
energy production will increase atmospheric concentrations of harmful trace elements.  These
trace elements may also act as catalytic agents for reactions among pollutant gases  in the
air.  Atmospheric deposition has been cited by the Great Lakes Basin Commission  as  a signifi-
cant source of toxics in the Great Lakes.

Organic compounds, many of which are well known pollutants, also have significant roles in
other atmospheric chemistry cycles.  Organic compounds are one of the principal  sources of
oxygen for oxidation of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere.  The nitrogen oxide cycle  and the
ozone/oxidant cycles also involve organic compounds as major sources of oxygen.   The exact
chemistry of these reactions is, at present, not understood.

Several substances reduce the acidity of the atmosphere and of wet and dry chemical deposi-
tion.  Some of these neutralizing substances are man-made, but for the most part neutrali-
zers arise from natural sources.  Natural resources of neutralization compounds  include
ammonia gases,  marine aerosols and fugitive dust from naturally alkaline soil.  These sub-
stances may react with acid components in the air, but their actual chemical components and
reactions need further study.
                                        76

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•  The goal of EPA's Acid Rain Research Program is to develop a basic understanding of the
   source-receptor relationships of acid deposition and determine the cost associated with acid
   deposition effects.  This will enable EPA to determine the need for and type of measures to
   control and/or counteract the damages from atmospheric acid deposition.

•  To meet this goal, EPA is establishing objectives in areas of:

   -  monitoring
   -  atmospheric processes
      environmental effects
                                               77

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Concentrations of Sulfur Dioxide
        Emissions in 1975
                          • Heavy Concentrations
                          A Moderate Concentrations
   Increased Acidity in Precipitation
Over Natural H* Concentration (pH 5.7)
          Great Lakes Basin

           Multiple of Natural H ' Concentration
               <10X
               10 25X
               >25X
                                                                               ILLINOIS

                                                                                      I  INDIANA
                                                                                                                     PENNSYLVANIA
                                                          78

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                   ACID PRECIPITATION - PATTERNS OF EMISSIONS AND pH OF RAIN

                                           HIGHLIGHTS
Historical  •  The left-hand map shows the pattern of emissions of sulfur dioxide in the U.S. in
Emissions      1975.  The plots indicate the areas where emissions are concentrated because of
Patterns       the activity of utilities and industry.  The dots, indicate areas where emissions
               were heavy (50-100 kilotons).  Triangles indicate areas where emissions were mod-
               erate (1-10 kilotons).  The Great Lakes Region contains areas where emission den-
               sities are among the highest in the nation.

            •  The map was constructed using data obtained  by Brookhaven National Laboratory,
               and appeared in Likens, G.E. £t_ _al., "Acid Rain."  Scientific American, 241 (4):
               43-51, 1979.


pH of Rain  •  The right-hand map shows areas of increased  acidity of precipitation over natural
               concentration.  According to the Great Lakes Science Advisory Board, the Great
               Lakes watershed is receiving precipitation which contains 5 to 40 times more acid
               than precipitation under natural conditions  (pH 5.7).   Acidification is greatest
               near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.  It is likely that emissions from highly indus-
               trialized areas to the south and west are carried by prevailing winds to the Lake
               Erie/Lake Ontario area and cause increased acidity of precipitation.

            •  The map was constructed using data from the  Canadian Network for Sampling Precip-
               itation (CANSAP) (1977).  The map appeared in Great Lakes Science Advisory Board,
               Annual Report to the International Joint Commission, July 1979.

            *  The Atmospheric Pollutants Loading Study was established to estimate total pol-
               lutant loadings to the Great Lakes.  The study is being directed by the EPA Cen-
               tral Regional Laboratory in cooperation with the State of Michigan Department of
               Natural Resources, the Grosse lie Laboratory, and the EPA Office of Research and
               Development.  The monitoring network consists of 37 sampling sites.  Some 30
               parameters are analyzed including organic and inorganic compounds and metals.
                                               79

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                   Generalized NO,, SO- Emissions Trends
_ — — High NO,. SO, Emissions in 1975 and 2'

^^^™ Rapid Increase in NO,. SO, Emissions
      between 1975 and 2000
                                                                                                         Areas Highly Sensitive To Acid Precipitation

                                                                                                        1 Sensitivity based on bedrock type     SSSS Study area
                                                                                 SO

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                  ACID PRECIPITATION - TRENDS IN EMISSIONS AND SENSITIVE AREAS

                                           HIGHLIGHTS
Trends     •  Emissions of precursors (SOX, NOX) are expected to remain high in Region V
  in          between 1975 and 2000.  Region V is expected to receive the highest regional emis-
Emissions     sions of SOX, and the second highest emissions of NOX in 2000.  On the basis
              of these trends, acidification of precipitation can be expected to continue.
           •  Because of prevailing wind patterns, emissions of precursors in Region V could af-
              fect air quality in nearby regions of the U.S. and Canada.  The New York Depart-
              ment of Environmental Conservation contends that sulfur oxides emitted in the Ohio
              River Valley are a major contributor to acid rain problems in the Adirondack
              Mountains.


Sensitive  •  The Acid Rain Research Program at EPA's Duluth Laboratory is designed to assess
Areas         acid deposition rates and effects in Precambrian bedrock areas of the northern
              Great Lakes states.

           •  The right-hand map shows areas where lakes studied by the EPA Duluth Laboratory
              are located in relation to areas predicted to have high sensitivity to acid pre-
              cipitation.  Three-fourths of the lakes sampled were determined to be susceptible
              to acidification.
                                             81

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                                       ACID PRECIPITATION
                                            REGION V

                                             DETAIL
•  Region V contains areas where SOX and NOX emission densities are among the highest in
   the nation.  Ohio has the largest total annual S02 emission rate of any state.   Sulfur
   dioxide emission patterns on the source map are based on data obtained by Brookhaven National
   Laboratory.

•  According to the Great Lakes Science Advisory Board, all parts of the Great Lakes watershed
   are receiving precipitation which contains 5 to 40 times more acid than precipitation under
   natural conditions (pH 5.7).  This conclusion (and corresponding map) is based  on data
   collected during 1977 by the Canadian Network for Sampling Precipitation (CANSAP).  This
   network operates 50-75 stations, 25-30 of which are located in the Great Lakes  Basin.  The
   stations monitor pH of bulk precipitation.  The map was constructed using average annual pH
   values.

•  Emissions of precursors (SOX, NOX) are expected to remain high in Region V between 1975
   and 2000.  Region V is projected to have the highest regional SOX emissions, and the second
   highest regional emissions of NOX in 2000.  Precursor emission projections are  from the
   Strategic Environmental Assessment System, High Growth Scenario.

•  Monitoring the composition of precipitation is a facet of EPA's Acid Rain Research Program.
   Several monitoring networks are active in Region V, including:

   -  Atmospheric Pollutants Loading Study
   -  National Atmospheric Deposition Project (NADP)
   -  World Meterorological Organization (WHO), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
      tion (NOAA),  and EPA network
   -  Multi-State Atmospheric Power Production Pollution Study (MAP3S)
                                               82

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•  The Acid Rain Research Program at EPA's Environmental Research Laboratory at Duluth, Min-
   nesota is designed to assess acid deposition rates and effects in Precambrian bedrock areas
   of the northern Great Lakes states.  The major objective of the program is to provide proto-
   cols for determining the susceptible resources and their tolerances to atmospheric deposi-
   tion.  These protocols will be suitable for assisting in decision making on power plant
   siting, control of existing sources, and establishment of regulatory standards.

•  EPA's Duluth lab is now monitoring the pH of lakes in Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
   Studies have shown that about three-fourths of the lakes sampled in the Great Lakes watershed
   are susceptible or potentially susceptible to acidification using the calcite saturation
   index as an approximate classification scheme.

•  Several other acid rain studies are underway in the Great Lakes Region:

   -  Argonne National Laboratory is monitoring and evaluating the effects of acid rain and dry
      deposition on the Great Lakes.

      EPA's Laboratory at Duluth is studying how toxic elements released from soils and
      sediments affect aquatic ecosystems.

   -  An EPA project is planned to sample air masses from the Ohio Valley to determine how pol-
      lutants accumulate and change as the air moves east.
                                           83

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      Environmental Policy Dilemmas
Future energy choices will have implications
         for environmental quality

             • Energy Demand
             • Fuel Substitution
             • Synthetic Fuels

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                                  ENERGY  ISSUES  IN REGION  V

                                           HIGHLIGHTS
•  This series of slides presents information on trends in energy demand, environmental impli-
   cations of fuel substitution, and projected use of synthetic.fuels in Region V.

•  The photograph on the right shows the HYGAS pilot plant located in Chicago, Illinois.   This
   was the world's first large-scale facility to produce pipeline-quality gas from coal.   The
   HYGAS process involves hydrogasification of coal to produce methane,  which is eventually de-
   livered at pipeline pressure.  The process itself, as well as  the clean-burning product gas,
   ideally have minimal effects on the environmental surroundings.  A commercial plant design
   based on the HYGAS process is being prepared.
                                              85

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      Energy Demand by Consumption Sector
                     Region V
      1975
                                         2000
                                                 Transportation
                                                 26%
                                                    Residential
                                                    13%
                                             Commercial
                                             12%
Total = 12 Quads
                                   Total = 17 Quads
Energy Demand by Fuel Type
         Region V
                                                                                       1975
                                                                                                                          2000
                                                                           Electricity
                                                                           12%
                                                                                                   Gas
                                                                                                   32%
              Electricity
              23%
                                                                                 Total = 12 Quads
                                                                                                                     Total = 17 Quads
                                                                 86

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                                           HIGHLIGHTS
•  End-use demand for energy in Region V is projected to  increase  about  40 percent between 1975
   and 2000.  The corresponding national increase is  60 percent.   Region V is  already a highly
   industrialized, heavily populated area and significant economic or population growth is not
   anticipated during this period.   While in 1975 energy demand in Region V represented about 23
   percent of national energy demand,  in 2000,  it is  projected  that this region will account for
   20 percent of the national total.

•  In Region V the transportation sector consumes the largest proportion of energy, both in 1975
   and 2000.

•  The demand for electricity is projected to increase by 50 percent in  Region V during the pro-
   jection period.  This is the largest increase of any sector. By 2000,  23 percent of total
   regional demand is projected to  be met by electricity.  This growth is partially due to
   decreasing use of gas in residential, commercial,  and  industrial sectors.  The increased
   demand for fuel in residential and commercial sectors  is expected to  be met largely by
   electric power generation.

•  Oil is the primary fuel consumed to meet non-electric  end-use demand  in Region V, both in
   1975 (43 percent) and 2000 (45 percent).  Gas also supplies  a substantial portion of the de-
   mand, although its proportion declines from 32 percent in 1975  to 20  percent in 2000.   These
   two primary fuels are produced in small quantities within the region  and must therefore be
   imported.  By 2000, approximately 40 percent of the non-electric energy consumed in Region V
   will be imported into the region.

•  Although large reserves of coal exist in Region V, coal consumption satisfied only 13  per-
   cent of non-electric energy demand in 1975,  and is projected to satisfy about 11 percent in
   2000.

•  Coal is the major fuel used by utilities to  produce electricity in Region V throughout the
   projection period, providing over 70 percent of the fuel supply.   Nuclear generation of elec-
   tricity increases from 17 to 28 percent of total fuel  supply between  1975 and 2000.  Gas and
   oil account for less than 10 percent of fuel supplied  to utilities.

                                            CAVEATS


•  Energy demand is defined as end-use by the consuming sectors.

•  Electricity cannot be readily disaggregated  by consuming sector,  (residential,  commercial,
   industrial) using the current SEAS system.

                                               87

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                       ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE

                                             DETAIL
•  National end-use energy demand in 1975 was estimated to be 53 quads.   This demand is
   projected to increase to 85 quads by 2000.  Region V demand increases from 12 to 17 quads
   between 1975 and 2000.

•  In 1975, oil was the primary fuel consumed in Region V.  The transportation sector was the
   largest consumer.  By ZOOO, oil is expected to continue as the primary end-use fuel, provid-
   ing over 45 percent of end-use demand.  The transportation sector would continue as the major
   consumer of oil; however, the industrial sector would increase its use of oil five-fold.
   (Energy demand by fuel type and consuming sector is presented in Appendix C.)

•  Regional energy demand by the residential sector is projected to decrease slightly by 2000.
   This is due primarily to a gradual substitution of electricity for gas, oil, and coal for
   space heating and cooling.

•  Commercial energy demand is projected to increase by one-third in Region V between 1975 and
   2000.  An increase in energy demand of 0.5 quads by the asphalt industry accounts for this
   increase.

•  While Region V industrial combustion demand is projected to increase by nearly 50 percent by
   2000, this is less than half the projected national increase.  The use of natural gas
   declines by almost 25 percent in Region V, but oil and coal combustion more than offsets this
   decline and increases by 150 percent.

•  Other industrial (industrial feedstocks of oil and gas, coking coal) demand does not change
   between 1975 and 2000.

•  The consumption of natural gas is projected to decline by 15 percent between 1975 and 2000 in
   Region V.  Decreases are projected in the residential, commercial, industrial and utility
   sectors.

•  Nuclear generation in Region Vis projected to increase four-fold by 2000.  Nuclear plants
   are projected to produce over 27 percent of electricity in the region by 2000.


                                            88

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•  Coal use, excluding utility coal combustion, is projected to increase by 15 percent in Region
   V by 2000.  However, its contribution to total regional demand decreases from 13 percent to
   11 percent.

•  Substantial growth in electricity generation is projected in Region V—from 1.4 quads in 1975
   to 3.8 quads in 2000.  Part of this increase will be due to reduced demand by the residential
   sector for primary fuels such as coal, oil and gas.  Residential energy use is expected to
   gradually shift from these fuels to electricity for heating and cooling.

•  Electric utilities rely heavily on coal as the primary combustion fuel.  In 1975 coal combus-
   tion provided nearly 75 percent of electricity generation in Region V.   In 2000, the
   proportion decreases slightly to 71 percent because of a large increase in the amount of
   nuclear generation.

•  Although Region V is a coal exporter, nearly 50 percent of energy consumed in the region is
   imported.  Some gas is imported from Canada.  Oil, gas and uranium are  imported from other
   regions.  By 2000, the amount of imported energy should be moderately lower,  due to the re-
   duced use of gas by industrial combustors.  Residential consumption of  oil and gas should
   also be lower in 2000 due to a gradual shift to electricity (mainly coal-generated elec-
   tricity) and a slight amount of solar energy use.

•  Utility plans for phasing out gas and oil-fired utilities or adding nuclear and coal utili-
   ties are subject to change due to the regulatory and economic environment.  In Region V, only
   a small portion of electrical generation in 1975 was supplied by oil and gas  combustors.
                                               89

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                     Air Pollutant Emissions
           Under Alternative Fuel Mix Assumptions
                             Region V
  Fraction of
1975 Emissions
    1.5	
1975 Emissions
2000 Emissions with Fuel Switching '
2000 Emissions with 197S Fuel Mix
                                                 1975   2000
                                                   Nitrogen
                                                   Oxides
                                                                                                              Coal Synthetic Fuel Production in 2000
                                                                                                                               2 10
                                                                                            Energy Production
                                                                                            in1015Btu's
National Production

Region V Production
                                                                             Higri-Btu     Low-Btu      Coal
                                                                            Gasification  Gasification  Liquefaction
                                                                                 90

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     UTILITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION AIR EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS
                                           HIGHLIGHTS

•  Nationally, the fuel switching scenario assumes a substantial substitution of coal and
   nuclear fuels for oil and gas by 2000.   In most regions, oil and gas were the primary fuels
   used by utilities and industry in 1975.  However, in Region V, coal was already the primary
   fuel source for utilities, and the secondary fuel source for industrial combustors.  There-
   fore, the fuel switching scenario is expected to have a minor effect on fuel use (and emis-
   sions) in Region V.

•  Net emissions of particulates, SOX and  NOX in 2000 are projected to be comparable in the
   1975 fuel mix scenario and the fuel switching scenario in Region V.  Emissions from electric
   utilities and industrial combustors are affected by fuel mix assumptions, however, they
   offset each other.  Under the fuel switching scenario, air pollutant emissions from utilities
   are lower than they would be under the  1975 fuel mix scenario.  However, emissions from
   industrial combustion are higher under  the fuel switching scenario, offsetting any decreases
   achieved by utilities.

                                 COAL SYNTHETIC FUEL PRODUCTION
                                           HIGHLIGHTS


•  By 2000, approximately 20 percent of national coal synthetic liquid and gaseous fuel is pro-
   jected to be produced in Pvegion V.  The region is a likely area for synthetic fuel develop-
   ment because it has both abundant coal  resources and markets for the fuels.

•  Under the high growth scenario assumptions about half of the synthetic fuel  would be produced
   by liquefaction processes in Region V.   Low-Btu gasifiers would provide about one third of
   production.  Four full-scale low-Btu gasifiers and one high-Btu demonstration facility are
   presently in operation in Region V.

•  Because the amount of coal used for producing synthetic fuels is projected to be small (less
   than 15 percent of both national and regional coal supply after cleaning and transport), the
   effect on air pollutant emissions is expected to be minor for both the nation and Region V.

                                            CAVEATS


•  Low-Btu gasification includes both low-Btu gas (120-180 Btu/scf) and medium-Btu gas (250-350
   Btu/scf).  High-Btu gas (1000 Btu/scf)  can be mixed with natural gas in the  pipeline.

•  Fuel use reflects assumed full implementation of coal conversion features of ESECA.   (Note:
   ESECA has expired, but legislated coal  conversion is continuing under the 1978 Fuel Use Act.)


                                             91

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                   UTILITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
                             UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS

                                            REGION V

                                             DETAIL
•  Net emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX from utilities in 2000 are projected to  be
   higher under the 1975 fuel mix scenario than under the fuel switching scenario.  The 1975
   fuel mix scenario assumes heavy reliance by utilities on coal.   In the fuel switching  sce-
   nario, proportionately less coal use and more nuclear fuel use  is assumed than in the  1975
   fuel mix scenario.  Nuclear fuel use generates much less particulates, SOX and NOX  than
   does coal combustion.

•  Air pollutant emissions from industrial combustion in 2000 are  projected to be greater under
   the fuel switching scenario than under the 1975 fuel mix scenario.  The former scenario as-
   sumes decreased contribution of gas by 2000, and an increase in use of coal and oil for com-
   bustion,  (in 2000, gas would be used for over 65 percent of all industrial combustion in the
   1975 fuel mix scenario, but for only 30 percent of combustion in the fuel switching sce-
   nario.) Because coal is not as clean as gas as a fuel, emissions are projected to be higher
   under a scenario that emphasizes coal use.

•  Net emissions of particulates in 2000 are projected to be 4 percent higher under the fuel
   switching scenario than under the 1975 fuel mix scenario.  Industrial emissions from oil and
   coal combustion under the fuel switching scenario more than offset the increased emissions
   from utilities projected under the fuel mix scenario.

•  No scenario differences are projected for SOX emissions.  Emission reductions achieved by
   either utilities or industrial combustion under one scenario are offset by increased
   emissions from the other source.

•  NOX emissions are projected to be almost 10 percent higher in the 1975 fuel mix scenario
   than in the fuel switching scenario.  Because the 1975 fuel mix scenario assumes more coal
   combustion, NOX emissions will be higher.  NOX emissions are assumed to be uncontrolled.


                                            92

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•  Region V would not have to import as much energy in 2000 under a 1975 fuel mix scenario than
   under a fuel switching scenario.   The situation in Region V is unlike that of the nation as a
   whole.  In Region V the 1975 fuel mix scenario assumes that a higher percentage of total
   energy supply will be coal than does the fuel switching scenario.   The fuel switching sce-
   nario assumes that nearly 30 percent of regional supply will be uranium by 2000.   This fuel
   is not mined in Region V and therefore must be imported.   Coal is  assumed to make up over 60
   percent of regional energy supply under the 1975 fuel mix scenario.   Because enough coal
   would be mined to meet demand in the region, less fuel would have  to be imported  into the
   region in 2000.

•  Much sharper contrasts in emissions between scenarios are expected in Region VI and other
   areas which do not depend heavily on natural gas and oil for industrial combustion and elec-
   tricity generation.
                                           93

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                                 COAL SYNTHETIC FUEL PRODUCTION

                                            REGION V

                                             DETAIL
•  Nationally, over 4 quads of energy are projected to be produced from coal synthetic  fuels in
   2000.  Eighteen percent, or 0.8 quads of this energy will be produced in Region V.

•  The combination of available coal resources and proximity to industrial markets, make Region
   V an attractive area for siting coal synthetic fuel facilities.

•  Coal liquefaction pilot plants are currently operating in the U.S.,  although not in Region V.
   A major liquefaction product will be gasoline to be used by automobiles.  By the late 1980's,
   commercial scale liquefaction facilities should be operational, both nationally and in Region
   V.

•  Low- and medium-Btu gas will be used primarily by industry and utilities for process heat.
   Large facilities may be constructed which will provide energy for multiple industrial users.
   Utility applications include introducing the low- or medium-Btu gas  into a combined cycle
   process.

•  High-Btu gas can be used as a substitute for natural gas.  It can be delivered in a gas pipe-
   line and used by residential and commercial sectors in addition to industrial and utility ap-
   plications.  It also can be transported long distances.  However, it is more expensive to
   produce high-Btu gas than low- or medium-Btu gas.

•  Other DOE forecasting models beside SEAS, including FOSSIL2 and the Midterm Energy Fore-
   casting System (MEFS),  were consulted in determining proportional demand for each synthetic
   fuel type.

•  Regional siting of synthetic fuel facilities is based on both economic and environmental con-
   siderations.


                                            94

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                              SYNTHETIC FUEL FACILITIES IN REGION V
Low-Btu
Gasification
Medium-Btu
Gasification
High-Btu
Gasification
Planned
Gasification
Plants
     Location
Carey, Ohio
Ashtabula, Ohio
Saginaw, Michigan
Duluth, Minnesota
Wood River, Illinois
Granite City, Illinois
Hammond, Indiana

Chicago, Illinois

East St. Louis, Illinois
Toledo, Ohio
Noble County, Ohio
Perry County, Ohio
       Size
3.4  x 109 Btu/day
720  x 106 Btu/day
 36  x 106 Btu/day
1.44 x 109 Btu/day
12.5 x 109 Btu/day
4.5  x 109 Btu/day
100-200 x 109 Btu/day
1.5  x 10  Btu/day
   Status
Operating
Operating
Operating
Operating
Construction
Development
Development

Operating
Source:  DOE, Office of Resource Applications, June 1980.
                                                95

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                 Region V Summary
Air, Water Pollutants Decrease.
Solid and Hazardous Waste Generation Increases.
Major Polluters—Utilities, Transportation, Municipal Treatment
Facilities, Primary Metals, Machinery, Chemicals.
Emissions of Acid Rain Precursors (NOX, SOX) Will Remain High.
Existing Hazardous Waste Sites and Other Latent Problems
Will Demand Major EPA Attention for Years to Come.
                                                                                                     Major Industrial Zones
                                                                                                           Region V
                                                                                      NOTE: These zones Include such Industries as the chemicals, primary
                                                                                          metals, and fabricated metals products sectors (SIC codes 28,
                                                                                          33 and 34 respectively).
                                                                    96

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                                       REGION V SUMMARY

                                           HIGHLIGHTS
•  Of the air and water pollutants projected,  significant increases would occur only for NOX
   and dissolved solids between 1975 and 2000.  These increases, are attributed to growth in use
   of coal for electric power generation and industrial combustion.  Control technologies for
   NOX and dissolved solids are assumed to be  limited.

•  Annual hazardous waste generation is expected to double between 1975 and 2000.  A large por-
   tion of national production of certain chemicals occurs in Region V.  Many of the chemicals
   are toxic and are classified as priority pollutants under the Clean Water Act.

•  Significant increases in the acidity of precipitation have been reported in Region V.  Emis-
   sions of acid rain precursors (NOX, SOX) are expected to remain high throughout the pro-
   jection period.  Emissions in Region V could contribute to acid rain problems in nearby
   regions of the U.S. and Canada.

•  While the briefing has focused on future trends in environmental emissions, long-term impacts
   of past industrial practices cannot be ignored.  Important industries in Region V whose past
   practices will greatly influence future environmental quality include primary metals produc-
   tion, fabricated metal products, and chemicals production.

•  Past and continuing releases of heavy metals, acids, and persistent chemicals from these
   industries are of major concern.
                                               97

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                                       REGION V SUMMARY

                                            DETAIL
•  Emissions of NOX are projected to increase by 15 percent due to growth in electrical power
   generation and industrial combustion.

•  Emissions of all other air pollutants are projected to remain relatively constant or
   decline.  Compliance by utilities and boilers with SIP, NSPS and revised NSPS standards
   reduces particulate and SOX emissions.  Compliance by mobile sources with emissions
   regulations decreases HC and CO emissions.

•  Discharges of dissolved solids are projected to increase by about 65 percent due to coal-
   fired electric utilities.

•  Discharges of all other point-source water pollutants are projected to decline due to
   compliance by industries and municipal sources with the effluent limitations guidelines of
   the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, as amended.

•  Generation of solid waste which results from pollution control is expected to increase as
   air and water pollutant emission regulations become more stringent.

•  Nationally, hazardous waste generation is expected to double between 1975 and 2000.  Some of
   this generation is likely to occur in Region V since a large portion of national production
   of certain chemicals occurs in the region.

•  The Great Lakes Basin is receiving rain which is five to forty times normal acidity (pH
   5.7).  Many areas within the basin are susceptible to acid precipitation because the soils
   have poor buffering capacity.

•  Trends in emissions of acid rain precursors give an indication of future pH trends.  NOX
   emissions are expected to increase by 15 percent in Region V between 1975 and 2000.  SOX
   emissions are expected to decline by 30 percent in the region during this time period.
   Despite the decline in SOX emissions, Region V is projected to have the highest regional
   SOX emissions.   NOX emissions are projected to be the second highest, regionally.


                                              98

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•  Incidents such as Love Canal have shown that protecting human health and the quality of the
   environment requires more than simply control of future pollutant discharges.  Past industry
   practices may be important contributors to future environmental problems.

•  Region V has historically been a center for primary metals production and chemicals
   production.  Of particular interest in Region V are:

      iron, steel, zinc, and other nonferrous metals
      chemicals
   -  fabricated metals products

These industries are important both from the viewpoint of the quantity of production in Region
V (See Table) and the hazard associated with the industry products.

•  Releases of numerous toxic metals are associated with primary metals manufacture and
   fabricated metal products:

   -  arsenic
   -  chromium
   -  cadmium
   -  lead
   -  mercury

•  The chemicals industry has released quantities of various persistent substances many of
   which are dangerous:

   -  nylon
   -  chromates
   -  arsenic
   -  organochlorine insecticides (DDT, aldrin/dieldrin)

•  Toxic substances releases are also associated with the fabricated metal products industry
   (essentially the electroplating industry).
                                              99

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   -  chromium
   -  iron
   -  zinc
      cyanide

•  Areas of concern for these industries include almost all.of the major industrial centers in
   Region V

      Ch ic ago
   -  Detroit
      Indianapolis
   -  Minneapolis/St.  Paul

   Each industry is rather evenly distributed among these industrial centers.
                                          100

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                                INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY IN REGION V
         Industry

Iron and Steel
Copper
Lead
Zinc
Aluminum
Other Primary Nonferrous
Other Nonferrous Rolling & Drawing
Nonferrous Wire Drawing
Nonferrous Forging & Casting
TOTAL
      Primary Metals

               SIC (1967)

          331, 332, 3391, 3399
          3331, 334, 3351, 3362
          3332
          3333
          3334, 3352, 3361
          3339
          3356
          3357
          3369, 3392
          33
Percent of 1975 National
Production in Region Va'

           46
           25
            5
           10
           24
            9
           38
           19
           52
           37
Industrial Chemicals
Fertilizers
Pesticides & Agricultural Chemicals
Misc. Chemical Products
Plastic Materials & Resins
Synthetic Rubber
Cellulosic Fibers
Noncellulosic Fibers
Drugs
Cleaning and Toilet Products
Paints
TOTAL
       Chemicals

          281
          2871
          2879
          286
          2821
          2822
          2823
          2824
          283
          284
          285
          28

Fabricated Metal Products
Metal Cans
Metal Barrels, Drums, and Pails
Plumbing and Heating Equipment
Structural Metal Products
Screw Machine Products
Metal Stampings
Cutlery, Hand Tools, and Hardware
Misc. Fabricated Wire Products
Valves, Pipe and Fittings
Other Fabricated Metal
  Products  (includes electroplating)
TOTAL
    Percent  of  constant dollar output
          3411
          3491
          3431, 3432,  3433
          3441, 3442,  3443,  3444,  3446,  3449
          345
          3461
          3421, 3423,  3425,  3429
          3481
          3494, 3498
          3471, 3479,  3492,  3493
          3496, 3497,  3499
          34
                                             101
           19
           16
            6
           34
           15
           19

            2
           33
           33
           42
           23
           35
           39
           41
           27
           49
           63
           38
           40
           35
           42

           39

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       APPENDIX A




BACKGROUND FOR ANALYSIS
       A-l

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                                    BACKGROUND FOR ANALYSIS
General Information on Projections

•  Projections derived primarily from
   the Strategic Environmental
   Assessment System (SEAS) model.

•  25-year forecast period, 1975-2000.
   High economic growth scenario.

•  Information presented represents general
   trends based on assumptions rather than
   specific projections of the future.

•  SEAS data are most complete and current
   for energy technologies, industrial
   combustion and industrial processes.

o  The SEAS analysis is based on pollutant
   generation projections in the following
   source categories:

   - Air—stationary and mobile source
     emissions
Pollutant Definitions

    Gross:  Present in raw wastestream;
            process changes are reflected
            here.

      Net:  Released to environment.

   Abated:  Removed from raw wastestream;
            assuming compliance with
            environmental regulations.
            Abated pollutants are by
            definition equal to the
            difference between gross and
            net.

  Primary:  Generated as a direct result
            of the production process.

Secondary:  Generated as a result of
            pollution abatement activities.
   - Water—industrial and municipal
     point-source discharges

   - Solid waste—generated by control
     of point-source pollution

   - Hazardous waste—generated by
     industrial activity

   Contracter support for this effort
   was provided by The MITRE Corporation/
   Metrek Division.
                                              A-2

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                                          ASSUMPTIONS
Energy Assumptions

Increase in domestic oil production.

Decline in natural gas production in
  continental U.S.

Near tripling of coal production by
  2000.

Industrial shift from gas to oil, coal
  and electricity
                  Economic and Demographic Assumptions

                  Assumed GNP (Billions of 1972 Dollars)
                       1975  1,141
                       2000  2,735
Annual Growth Rate
        3.5%
                  National Population (Millions)

                       1975    213    Annual Growth Rate
                       2000    262            0.8%
Total U.S. Energy Consumption in Quads
       1975
       2000
 73
124
 NOTE:  Based on SEAS High Growth Scenario in the
        Environmental Outlook 1980 report.  Assumes
        full implementation of fuel switching provi-
        sions of the Energy Supply and Environmental
        Coordination Act (ESECA).
                                              A-3

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Environmental Regulation Assumptions

      SOURCE

AIR:

  •  EXISTING SOURCES

         - Pre-1975
         - Conversions to coal
           under ESECA

  •  NEW SOURCES

         - Post-1975
         - Post-1981 Industrial
           Boilers
         - Post-1984 Electric
           Utilities

  •  MOBILE SOURCES

         - Automobiles
         - Trucks
WATER:
     INDIVIDUAL INDUSTRY
       AND MUNICIPAL TREATMENT
       FACILITY LIMITATIONS
REGULATION
SIP Standards
(Full Compliance by 1985)
NSPS
Revised NSPS

Revised NSPS
Emissions limits
Emissions factors
BPT
(Full Compliance by 1979)
BAT
(Full Compliance by 1985)
(BCT not assumed)
ORIGIN
Clean Air Act (CAA)
1970 Amendments to CAA
1977 Amendments to CAA

1977 Amendments to CAA
1977 Amendments to CAA
EPA, March 1978
Federal Water Pollution
  Control Act
                                              A-4

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            APPENDIX B

METHOD USED TO DERIVE HAZARDOUS
         WASTE ESTIMATES
             B-l

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                                            APPENDIX

                                     METHOD USED TO DERIVE
                                   HAZARDOUS WASTE ESTIMATES


     A two step procedure was used to derive estimates for hazardous waste generation.  The
first step was to estimate 1975 generation in the Nation for selected industries.  The second
step was to both backcast and forecast generation for selected years based on the 1975 esti-
mates.  These procedures are outlined in detail in the following paragraphs.

Derivation of 1975 Hazardous Waste Generation Estimates

     The draft environmental impact statement for Subtitle C of RCRA^ contains hazardous waste
generation factors for nineteen industries represented by two-digit SIC codes.  These factors
are in terms of tons of waste per employee per year.  Using employment data from Department of
               f\
Labor documents^ and these generation factors, estimates of hazardous waste generation by the
nineteen industries were calculated for the United States.  These industry estimates were then
aggregated to form national generation estimates.  The following example illustrates this pro-
cedure.

     Ex.  SIC Code 28 - Chemicals and Allied Products
          Generation Factor - 37.17 tons per employee per year
          Total Employment in SIC 28 in 1975:  1,012,500
          Hazardous Waste Generation in SIC 28 in 1975:
            37,17 x 1.0125 x 106 = 37.6 x 106 Tons per year
^-Subtitle C, Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, Draft Environmental Impact State-
 ment.United States Environmental Protection Agency,January 1979.(particularly Chapter 6
 and Appendix H.)
2Employment and Earnings, States and Areas 1939-1975 and "Employment and Earnings" reported in
 Employment and Training Report to the President, 1978.  United States Department of Labor.
                                           B-2

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Derivation of Hazardous Waste Generation Estimates in Selected Other Years

     Once the 1975 estimates were derived, a suitable indicator of growth in generation has to
be determined.  The best indicator, theoretically, would be the product output of individual
industries.  However the data currently available do not support the use of this indicator
since, to be useful, projections would have to be made at a more disaggregate level than two-
digit SIC code.  Employment was also discarded as an indicator since it was felt that employment
would be a misleading indicator of economic activity, and hence hazardous waste generation, due
to productivity changes that may occur in the future.  The indicator used was industry earnings
since it was felt that this would be the best available indicator of economic activity at the
level of aggregation used.

     Earnings estimates are available for 1965 through 2000 from OBERS^ by OBERS manufacturing
sectors.  These sectors were translated directly to the two-digit SIC codes.  The trend in earn-
ings between the year in question and 1975 was calculated for each SIC code and applied to the
1975 hazardous waste generation for each SIC code to calculate the hazardous waste generation
for that year.

     The individual industry estimates were then aggregated to form national generation esti-
mates, both total and by industry.  The following example illustrates the method used:

     Ex.  SIC Code  28 - Chemicals and Allied Products

          Hazardous Waste Generation in 1975:  37.6 x 10" Tons per year
          Earnings  in 1975 SIC Code 28 - OBERS Sector 84500 (Billions of 1967 $):   10.97
          Earnings  in 2000 SIC Code 28 - OBERS Sector 84500 (Billions of 1967 $):   25.29
          Hazardous Waste Generation in 2000:  37.6 x 106 Tons x 25.29 = 86.68 x 106 Tons
                                                                 10.97
 ^Office of  Business and Economic Research (OBERS) Department of Commerce.   Data tape - BWT.
  OBERSTAT.  V2RO.


                                           B-3

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Error Potential

     There is considerable potential for error in these projections.  Causes of possible error
in the derivation of the generation coefficients is discussed in some detail in the RCRA-EIS
cited earlier.  Furthermore, the use of earnings as a growth indicator for hazardous waste gen-
eration could introduce error since constant dollar earnings are not necessarily linearly re-
lated to product output.  Also, the coefficients used are national average coefficients and do
not account for regional variation or waste generation due to,  for example, production process
differences.  Finally, the forecasts do not account for the hazardous wastes generated in indus-
trial wastewater treatment facilities.  As mentioned in the discussion of solid wastes, esti-
mates of generation of this type of solid waste are not available at this time.  Because of this
exclusion these projections probably understate generation in the years after 1975.

     In spite of these difficulties, these projections are a reasonable "first cut" at this
problem.  The increase in generation of 3.3 percent per year projected in the nation is fairly
close to the growth in industrial solid waste generation projected by EPA (about 3 percent per
year)."  Further, the 1975 national total of 59.6 million tons of hazardous wastes is approxi-
mately 16 percent of the 1975 industrial solid waste generation estimated by EPA.  This is close
to the 10-15 percent range that EPA estimates for hazardous wastes.
                                           B-4

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              APPENDIX C

REGION V ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION
         SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE
               C-l

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                             REGION V ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION
                                     SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE
                                            (QUADS)
                     COAL
OIL
GAS
NUCLEAR
SOLAR/OTHER
                                                                             TOTAL
          1975
TRANSPORTATION
          2000

          1975
   RESIDENTIAL
          2000

          1975
    COMMERCIAL
          2000

          1975
    INDUSTRIAL
    COMBUSTION
          2000

          1975
         OTHER
    INDUSTRIAL
          2000

          1975
      ELECTRIC
     UTILITIES
          2000

          1975
        TOTAL
          2000
0
0
A
*
*
.2
.6
1.1
.9
.5
1.1
2.7

2.7
4.6
3.6
4.4
.7
.7
.6
1.1
.2
1.1
.2
.4
.1
*

5.4
7.7
0
0
1.7
1.5
.8
.6
1.5
1.1
A
.3
A
0

4.1
3.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.3
1.1

.3
1.1
0
0
0
.1
0
.1
0
0
0
0
A
A

0
.2
3.6
4.4
2.5
2.4
1.4
2.0
2 .3
3.3
1.1
1.2
1.6
3.8

12.5
17.1
               * value is less than 0.1 quad.
               It was not possible to break down Region V electricity demand by consuming sector.
                                              C-2

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   Department Approval :^
MITRF Project Approval:

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