Environmental Outlook 1975-2000 Federal Region V ------- Environmental Outlook 1975-2000 Federal Region V Mareia L. Wilson Laura R. Jones Thomas F. Wolfinger W. David McGarry August 1980 MTR-80W207 Sponsor: Environmental Protection Agency Contract No.: 68-01-5064 The MITRE Corporation Metrek Division 1820 Dolley Madison Boulevard G> McLean, Virginia 22102 O o » 00 o h-> I' 00 ------- ABSTRACT The information in this document was presented by the EPA Assistant Administrator for Research and Development (ORD) as a briefing to senior staff at the Region V headquarters in Chicago, Illinois on June 18, 1980. The briefing opened a day of discussion between ORD and Region V on the environmental outlook for the region. This briefing is organized in two major sections: pollutant emission trends and emerging environmental issues. Each new subject is introduced by a pair of slides. The supporting text is divided into highlights, caveats and detail. 111 ------- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many individuals contributed to the preparation of this document. Special acknowledgement is due to Beth Borko, Steve McBrien, Kris Barrett, Brant Smith and Bob Atkins of The MITRE Corporation; John Reuss, Al Humphreys, David Bennett, Charles Oakley and Marjorie Russell of the Environmental Protection Agency; and Gary Glass of the Environmental Research Laboratory at Duluth, Minnesota. iv ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE BRIEFING OUTLINE 3 EPA's LONG-RANGE RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS 5 AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION TRENDS - NATIONAL AND REGIONAL 13 TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS - REGION V 23 POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGE TRENDS - NATIONAL AND REGIONAL 27 TRENDS IN POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES - REGION V 37 TRENDS IN SOLID WASTE GENERATION FROM POLLUTION CONTROL - REGION V 43 TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT 49 PRODUCTION TRENDS FOR SELECTED TOXIC CHEMICALS 55 TRENDS IN HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION 59 OIL AND HAZARDOUS MATERIAL SPILLS 63 CHEMICAL DEPOSITION 75 ACID PRECIPITATION - PATTERNS OF EMISSIONS AND pH OF RAIN 79 ACID PRECIPITATION - TRENDS IN EMISSIONS AND SENSITIVE AREAS 81 ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE 87 UTILITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION AIR EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS 91 COAL SYNTHETIC FUEL PRODUCTION 91 REGION V SUMMARY 97 APPENDIX A - BACKGROUND FOR ANALYSIS A-l APPENDIX B - METHOD USED TO DERIVE HAZARDOUS WASTE ESTIMATES B-l APPENDIX C - REGION V ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE C-l v ------- ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 1975-2000 FEDERAL REGION V ------- The Environmental Outlook Region V Office of Research and Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ------- BRIEFING OUTLINE Purpose: To identify potentially significant environmental problems which could develop in Region V between now and 2000. Background: Based primarily on the Office of Research and Development's (ORD) Environmental Outlook 1980 report prepared by the Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies. Pollutant emissions projections were made by the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) model and other sources. All projections presented should be treated as approximations based on assumptions. Coverage: Air and water pollutants and solid waste generation are discussed with special emphasis being given to emerging environmental issues. Plans for future Envi- ronmental Outlook reports are also discussed. ------- The Environmental Outlook Studies Add a Long-Range Perspective to EPA Research Planning EPA's Long-Range Research Planning Process Science Advisory Board Research Committee Strategies 1 National Academy of Sciences OSASS Environmental Outlook Report Anticipatory Research Findings Budget Planning Process Research Outlook Research Committees Grants/ Cooperative Agreements Contracts Interagency Agreements In-house Laboratory Work ------- EPA's LONG-RANGE RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS HIGHLIGHTS EPA's long-range research and development planning program was established to support the Agency's regulatory mission and prepare it to deal with future environmental problems. The Office of Exploratory Research (OER) is responsible for providing information about en- vironmental trends for use in R&D planning. The Environmental Outlook reports are a key input. Research committees are responsible for developing R&D strategies in 13 subject areas. These strategies have a major role in EPA's budget process, and thus must reflect a reason- ably accurate idea of what the future holds, given existing trends. In developing information about environmental futures, OER must consider the forces of change in our society, including population and economic growth, technology, public policy and social attitudes, and latent problems. These forces of change underlie the trends in pollutant discharges and overall environmental quality presented in this document. ------- THE ORD RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS DETAIL The Office of Exploratory Research (OER) is responsible for providing information concern- ing environmental futures to the R&D planning process. This input consists of identifying, de- fining and assessing future environmental trends and problems and conducting exploratory re- search to meet basic knowledge needs concerning future problems. Within OER, the Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS) has primary responsibility for the former and shares responsibility for the latter with the Office of Research Grants and Centers. Specifically, OSASS is responsible for producing reports which: Provide a reasonably comprehensive, integrated overview of the longer-term regional, national and global environmental outlook. Expand existing data bases and increase understanding of potentially significant future problems. Evaluate concepts, methods, models and environmental controls and policies as they affect the environmental future. Collectively, these reports are intended to: Provide a description of alternative future trends and contingencies and an analysis of their environmental consequences, including their public health, public welfare and policy implications. Identify research which should be conducted to support the Agency's regulatory mission over the longer-term future. ------- GRD Research Committees are formed around the following subjects: Mobile source air pollution - Drinking water - Gxidants . Solid waste - Gaseous and inhalable particulate - Chemical testing and assessment pollutants - Pesticides - Hazardous air pollutants - Nonionizing radiation - Water quality - Energy - Industrial wastewater - Municipal wastewater, spill prevention and ocean disposal ------- DRIVING FORCES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE DETAIL Population and Economic Growth - The U. S. population will increase by perhaps 45 million persons by the year 2000, each of whom will consume resources, and demand a pleasant and safe personal environment. During the same period, economic activity will expand, with at- tendant potential for generation of air, water and solid waste pollution. Maintaining envi- ronmental quality in the face of such growth - at affordable cost to society - is a major challenge for the next 20 years. Changing Technology - Various factors dictate changes in technology. In particular, in- creasing energy costs are stimulating technological changes in the automobile fleet, in industrial processes, and in our daily living and recreational activities. Changing pollu- tion control approaches also will affect environmental quality. We are steadily improving our ability to detect and cope with an expanding list of environmental threats. The in- creasing cost of pollution control is expected to stimulate technology change in the direc- tion of new methods that produce less potentially polluting waste. (The Environmental Outlook 1981 section on hazardous wastes examines the potential for process changes in cer- tain segments of the organic chemicals industry that could be instituted in response to increasing hazardous waste disposal costs.) Public Policy and Social Attitudes - Strong public support will be needed to sustain the national effort to maintain environmental quality. In future years, public support could be threatened by the costs of environmental protection, constraints on energy policy choices, and increased government regulation of the private sector. Public policy decisions on en- ergy will have a great impact on future environmental quality. Widespread conversion of electric utilities and industrial boilers to coal may affect public health and the mainte- nance of certain ecosystems. Among potential problems associated with this conversion are increased ambient concentrations of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, particulates, radionuclides, toxic trace metals and organic compounds. ------- Latent Problems - The quality of our environment in future years will also be affected by unforeseen developments - some of which we may be creating today. Latent problems are ex- emplified by the relatively recent realization that hazardous wastes have been dumped with- out proper safeguards. We have also become aware of acid precipitation, atmospheric de- position of toxic substances, and C02 build-up in the atmosphere. Undoubtedly, there are problems we do not yet recognize. ------- Air Pollutant Trends Water Pollutant Trends Solid Waste Generation Trends Selected Special Topics for Region V Threats to Human Health Toxic Substances Hazardous Wastes and Spills Threats to Ecosystems Chemical Deposition Environmental Policy Dilemmas Energy Demand Fuel Substitution Synthetic Fuels 11 ------- National Trends in Major Air Pollutant Emissions Fraction of 19.8 1975 Nel 7.7 Abated Nel Emissions Other Transportation Industrial Combustion Electric Utilities Construction Materials Regional Perspective Air Pollutant Emission Trends NO, Increases Particulaies Decrease - CoalCombustion^ SO.. NO, Increase- C^lr«tton"lndusU 3,,, NOK Increase , sal Combustion, -si i / Mroleum Refining r-^ / XS SOt Decreases- Controls on Sulfuric Acid Plants Participates. SOX. NO, Increase - Industrie SO, Increases Particulates. SO,. \ Conversion to CoaK Decrease- Utilities ' New England. Jfl SO,. Particulates Decrease NO, Increases - Utilities Combustion L2 ------- AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION TRENDS - NATIONAL & REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS NATIONAL Significant increases in net emissions would occur only for NOX. This increase is due to growth in electric power generation and industrial com- bustion. Emissions of other air pollutants are expected to remain relatively constant or decline between 1975 and 2000. Particulates: Major source is the construction materials industry. Net emis- sions projected to decrease slightly as a result of compliance by utilities with SIP standards. SOX: Major source is coal use by utilities and boilers, which doubles between 1975 and 2000. Net SOX emissions, however, are projected to remain relatively constant as a result of application of desulfurization techniques. HC and CO: Major source is transportation. Net emissions projected to decline significantly as a result of compliance with regulations. REGIONAL Regional trends are similar to national trends. Increases in NOX emissions are projected to occur in all regions. Pollutant emissions are expected to be highest in 2000 in the Southeast, Great Lakes, and South Central U.S. (Regions IV, V and VI). CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS Air pollutant data are most complete and current for energy technologies, fuel combustion and conventional industrial processes. Scenario assumes no control on stationary sources of NOX; since health impacts of exposure are of increasing concern to EPA, this may not be a safe assumption for the future. NOX generation projections are adjusted to reflect emissions with no mobile source controls; net NOX emissions reflect beneficial impact of mobile source controls. It is assumed (except in the case of California) that all states will meet Federal mobile source standards. (Region-specific transportation control stan- dards not incorporated.) Future Environmental Outlook reports will be directed in part to Research Com- mittee concerns and may include such topics as mobile source air pollution, oxidants, hazardous air pollutants and gaseous and inhalable particulates. 13 ------- NATIONAL TRENDS IN MAJOR AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS DETAIL Particulates Between 1975 and 2000, total generation of particulates is projected to more than double. If full compliance with existing air emission regulations were achieved, parti- culate emissions would decrease one-third between 1975 and 1985. Compliance with emissions limits established in State Implementation Plans is assumed by 1982. Compliance with these limits should have a beneficial impact, especially in the near term. After 1985, emissions would increase gradually through 2000, to 85 percent of 1975 levels, due to economic growth and increasing fossil fuel combustion. Despite increases in total coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial boilers, particulate emissions from coal combustion are expected to decline if standards are met. The construction materials industry (which includes glass, cement, sand and gravel, and similar sources) is the major source of particulate emissions, accounting for approximately 40 percent of total net emissions in 1975. This is the only industrial source for which particulate emissions in 2000 are pro- jected to exceed 1975 levels. Assuming process changes in the steel industry, including conversion to basic oxygen and electric arc furnaces, particulate emissions from the steel industry are projected to decrease more sharply than emissions from other industries. Sulfur Oxides The generation of SOX is expected to double between 1975 and 2000. Coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial boilers, which in 1975 ac- counted for two-thirds of SOX releases, is expected to more than double be- tween 1975 and 2000. However, SOX releases are expected to remain fairly constant from 1975 to 2000 as a result of desulfurization techniques. 14 ------- Nitrogen Oxides Sulfur oxide releases from the copper smelting industry, the third largest SOX source, are expected to decline sharply between 1975 and 1985 through use of control measures (e.g., single and double contact sulfuric acid plants and sulfite-bisulfite stack gas scrubbers). Between 1985 and 2000, emissions are expected to increase slightly because of higher copper production. Electric power generation and motor vehicle transportation are each expected to account for about one-third of the NO generation between 1975 and 2000. x Under high economic growth assumptions, growth in fuel use for industrial com- bustion is projected to increase net NOX emissions from that source three- fold between 1975 and 2000. Net emissions of NOV from mobile sources are projected to decline between A. 1975 and 2000, even though transportation activity increases. The decline is attributed to transportation emission controls. Hydrocarbons Hydrocarbon emissions, which contribute to the formation of oxidants, are a significant air quality problem. In 1975, over three-fourths of the urban counties in the United States failed to comply with primary ambient air quality standards for photochemical oxidants. Automobile and truck transportation accounted for over one-half the HC emis- sions in 1975, and surface coatings and petroleum refining accounted for an additional one-fourth. Hydrocarbon releases are expected to decline substantially between 1975 and 1985, then to remain relatively constant from 1985 to 2000. These trends re- flect projected reductions in emissions from transportation sources resulting from compliance with present mobile source abatement requirements. 15 ------- The petroleum industry is the only major source of HC emissions that is projected to generate more pollutants in 2000 than in 1975. Because emission standards are more stringent for automobiles than for trucks, reductions in HC emission levels are projected to be greater in the more urbanized eastern half of the country, where the ratio of automobile to truck travel is the highest. Carbon Although less than 10 percent of global atmospheric CO results from human Monoxide activity, as much as 98 percent of CO in urban areas results from human sources, especially automobile travel. Current air quality standards regulate CO emissions. Pollution control devices, engine design improvements, and the use of mass transit alternatives to personal auto travel are expected to reduce auto emis- sions of CO more than two-thirds from 1975 to 2000. Truck emissions of CO, which are less strictly regulated, are expected to decline by only one-third between 1975 and 2000. Carbon monoxide emissions from all sources are expected to be cut in half from 1975 to 2000 primarily because of reduced transportation emissions. 16 ------- REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS DETAIL Region I Emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX are projected to increase slightly, while emissions of CO and HC are expected to decline significantly between 1975 and 2000. Net emissions of SOX are projected to increase by about 20 percent between 1975 and 2000, because of greater use of coal by electric utilities. This is partly due to assumed compliance with the fuel substitution requirements enacted under the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974. (ESECA has expired, but legislated coal coversion is continuing under the 1978 Fuel Use Act.) Despite the relatively slow economic growth assumed for the northeastern por- tion of the United States, total NOX generation and net emissions would still continue to increase in this region. NOX emissions are expected to increase more slowly than the national average of 140 percent. Emissions of particulates, SOX, NOX and HC in 2000 are projected to be lower in Region I than in any other region. Emissions were low in 1975 and little growth is expected during the projection period. Region I has lower population and economic activity levels than most other regions. Region II Emissions of all air pollutants are projected to remain constant or decrease between 1975 and 2000. NOX emissions are expected to remain constant in Region II, in contrast to the trend in most other regions. Air pollutant emissions are projected to be low in 2000 in Region II compared to other regions. 17 ------- Region III Emissions of all air pollutants except NOX are projected to decline between 1975 and 2000. Despite the relatively slow economic growth assumed for the northeastern por- tion of the United States, generation and emissions of NOX would increase about 25 percent in this region, compared to a national average of 40 percent. Air pollutant emissions in Region III are projected to be higher than in most other regions in 2000. Region IV Emissions of all air pollutants, except NOX, are projected to decline between 1975 and 2000. Despite projected declines, Region IV is expected to receive high loadings of air pollutants in 2000. NOX emissions are projected to increase at a rate comparable to the national average. Region IV is expected to receive the second highest regional emissions of NOX in 2000. The pulp and paper industry, which has no CO controls, is expected to cause increases in local CO emissions in parts of Region IV, however, total CO emis- sions would decrease 45 percent. Region V Emissions of all air pollutants except NOX are projected to decline between 1975 and 2000. Despite reductions, Region V is projected to receive the high- est regional emissions of SOX, HC and CO in 2000. Emissions of particulates and NOX are projected to be the second highest regionally in 2000. The projected increase in NOX emissions in Region V is much less than that projected for the nation as a whole. Particulate emissions are expected to be 50 percent lower in 2000 than in 1975 as a result of compliance with standards and slow economic growth. 18 ------- SOX releases are projected to decline by 30 percent between 1975 and 2000 due to compliance by utilities. Increased CO emissions from the steel industry will be evident in this region, due to a greater utilization of basic oxygen furnaces (in place of open hearth furnaces). Region VI Emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX are projected to increase between 1975 and 2000, while emissions of HC and CO are projected to decline. Particulate emissions are expected to increase substantially because of growth in aluminum production and widespread substitution of low-Btu coal for other fuels. SOX releases in this region are projected to triple between 1975 and 2000 because of rapid increases in use of coal by electric utilities and industrial combustors. NOX emissions are projected to increase more rapidly than the national aver- age. In 2000, Region VI is expected to receive the highest regional dis- charges. The pulp and paper industry, which has no CO controls, is expected to increase its local CO emissions in this region. Region VI is expected to receive some of the highest loadings of air pollutants of any region in 2000. Region VII Greater use of coal by electric utilities and other industrial sources would lead to increased emissions of SOX and NOX between 1975 and 2000. Emis- sions of other air pollutants are projected to decline. Air pollutant emissions in Region VII are projected to be moderate in 2000, compared to other regions. 19 ------- Region VIII Emissions of participates, SOX and NOX are projected to increase between 1975 and 2000. Compared to other regions, emissions of these pollutants would be moderate in Region VIII in 2000. Emissions of HC and CO are projected to decline during the forecast period. Emissions of these two pollutants would be comparatively low in 2000. NOX emissions are projected to nearly triple as a result of increased indus- trial and electric utility combustion of coal. Region VIII is expected to experience the largest regional increase in NOX emissions. Although net HC emissions are projected to decrease between 1975 and 2000 in all regions, the decrease is expected to be slower in Region VIII because of increases in emissions from industrial sources, most notably petroleum refining and storage. Region IX Emissions of particulates and NOX are projected to increase slightly between 1975 and 2000, while emissions of other air pollutants decline. Projected particulate emissions in Region IX do not follow the national trend of significant decreases between 1975 and 2000. The projected decline of SOX emissions in this region would result primarily from implementation of single and double contact sulfuric acid plants and other SOX control methods. Region IX is one of three regions in which SOX re- leases are projected to decline significantly between 1975 and 2000. Air pollutant emissions in Region IX are projected to be moderate in 2000, com- pared to other regions. Region X Emissions of all air pollutants except HC and CO are projected to increase be- tween 1975 and 2000. However, air pollutant emissions are expected to be low in 2000 in Region X, compared to other regions. 20 ------- Emissions of particulates would increase due to releases from the construction materials industry. Increases in the level of oil refining and utility combustion of coal would lead to increases in emissions of SOX and NOX between 1975 and 2000. 21 ------- Trends in Major Air Pollutant Emissions Region V ] Abated Net Emissions Other Construction Materials Electric Utilities Steel 1975 2000 Hydrocarbons 19752000 Carbon Monoxide Region V Summary Air Pollutants Major Sources 1975-2000 are Utilities, Transportation, Construction Materials. NOX Increases Coal-Fired Utilities and Industrial Combustion. Particulates Decrease Sharply Due to Slow Economic Growth, Compliance by Utilities. SO.., HC, CO Decrease. 22 ------- TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS REGION V HIGHLIGHTS The only air pollutant projected to increase between 1975 and 2000 in this region is NOX. This increase is due to growth in energy use with the major source being coal combustion. All other air pollutant emissions are expected to decline. Despite projected decreases, Region V is projected to have the highest regional discharges of SOX, HC and CO in 2000. Discharges of particulates and NOX are projected to be the second highest, regionally. Particulates Major sources are the construction materials industry and electric utilities. SOX Major source is electric utilities. NOX Major sources are coal combustion and transportation. HC and CO Major source is transportation. CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS The scenario considered here assumes virtually no control on stationary NOX sources. The latest NSPS standards for electric utilities are not incorporated in these projections. Therefore, these projections may not accurately reflect the regulatory picture in 2000. All states are assumed to meet Federal mobile source emission standards in this scenario. However, individual state transportation control plans (TCPs) may differ from this norm (region-specific TCP standards have not been incorporated into the projections). The actual air quality impacts of the emission trends identified here are highly dependent on patterns of long-range pollutant transport that are not currently accounted for in SEAS. System development is underway to achieve this capability. 23 ------- TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS REGION V DETAIL Participates Total generation of particulates is projected to increase by about 70 percent between 1975 and 2000. Net emissions of particulates are projected to decline approximately 50 percent between 1975 and 2000 as a result of decreased emissions from coal-fired utili- ties and the construction materials industry. The percent reduction in emis- sions is greater in Region V than for the nation as a whole. The construction materials industry, which includes glass, cement, sand, and gravel, is the major source of particulate emissions, accounting for 30 to 40 percent of regional emissions throughout the projection period. Electric utilities accounted for about 30 percent of 1975 emissions and are expected to account for about 15 percent of emissions in 2000. Sulfur Total generation of SOX is projected to increase by 60 percent between 1975 Oxides and 2000. Net emissions of SOX are projected to decline by about 30 percent by 1985. No increase in emissions is projected between 1985 and 2000. Combustion of coal is by far the largest source of SOX emissions, accounting for about 90 percent of regional emissions in 1975 and 80 percent in 2000. Nitrogen Total generation of NOX is projected to increase by about 20 percent between Oxides 1975 and 2000. Net emissions of NOX are projected to parallel trends in total generation, increasing about 15 percent between 1975 and 2000. This increase in emissions is comparable to the national average. Electric utilities and transportation accounted for more than three-fourths of NOX emissions in 1975 and are projected to account for about 60 percent of emissions in 2000. 24 ------- Hydrocarbons and Total generation of HC and CO is projected to increase slightly between Carbon Monoxide 1975 and 2000. Net emissions of HC and CO are projected to decline by about 40 percent between 1975 and 2000. Automobile and truck travel are expected to account for about half the emissions throughout the projection period. The decline in emissions is attributed to compliance with mobile source emission limits. 25 ------- National Trends in Point-Source Water Pollutant Discharges 96.8 Net Emissions Other Chemicals Electric Utilities Petroleum Refining & Storage Pulp and Paper Municipal Sewage 1975 2000 Biochemical Oxygen Demand 1975 2000 Phosphorus 1975 2000 Oil & Grease Regional Perspective Point Source Water Pollutant Discharge Trends Dissolved Solids Increase- Utilities. Oil and Grease IncreasesAlaskan Oil - Dissolved Solids Increase- Utilities, Chemicals. Nutrients Increase- Municipal Sewage. Dissolved Solids Increase- Utilities, Chemicals- Dissolved Solids Increase- Energy Production Dissolved Solids Increase Utilities, Chemicals Dissolved Solids Increase- Energy Production Dissolved Solids IncreaseUtilities Dissolved Solids IncreaseChemicals 26 ------- HIGHLIGHTS With the exception of dissolved solids, discharges of all point-source water pol- lutants are projected to remain relatively constant or decrease between 1975 and 2000. BOD: Major source is municipal wastewater treatment facilities. Suspended Solids: Major source is municipal wastewater treatment facilities. NATIONAL Discharges from bauxite refining and the pulp and paper industry decrease dramatically despite major projected growth in these industries. Dissolved Solids: Major source is coal-fired and nuclear-fueled electric utilities. The organic chemicals industry is an important source in 2000. Nitrogen and Phosphorus: Major source is municipal wastewater treatment facili- ties. Treatment improvements are not sufficient to counteract population growth. Oil and Grease: The petroleum and organic chemicals industries are major sources. REGIONAL Regional trends are similar to national trends. Large increases in dissolved solids are expected in all regions as a result of increased electrical genera- tion capacity. Discharges of all pollutants are expected to be highest in 2000 in the Middle Atlantic, Southeast, Great Lakes and South Central U.S. (Regions III, IV, V, and VI). CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS The results presented represent point-source discharges by industrial and munic- ipal sources; although most major polluting industries have been included, recent changes in industrial composition may not be reflected. The dissolved solids estimate does not include discharges from municipal waste- water treatment facilities. The imposition of BAT standards on industrial effluents is assumed to lag two years behind the 1983 deadline set in the 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA). If compliance schedules change or if final BCT limitations deviate from esti- mated BAT standards, projections would differ. Projections do not include non-point source discharges. Water pollution from non-point sources is estimated to greatly exceed the discharges from point sources. 27 ------- NATIONAL TRENDS IN POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES DETAIL Biochemical Oxygen Demand The total generation of BOD by point sources is projected to increase about 65 percent between 1975 and 2000 due to population and economic growth. Net discharges of BOD are projected to decrease by about 30 percent between 1975 and 2000 due to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by indus- trial and municipal point sources. Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the major point source of BOD, ac- counting for about 50 percent of net discharges in 1975. By 2000, this propor- tion is expected to increase to 85 percent. BOD removal requirements for municipal facilities are assumed to be less stringent than those imposed on industry. The pulp and paper industry is projected to be a large source of BOD in 1975 and 2000. A process shift and improvement in removal efficiencies expected during the projection period should decrease BOD loadings from the pulp and paper industry. The proportion of total generation of BOD accounted for by municipal wastewater treatment plants decreases between 1975 and 2000. But the proportion of net discharges attributable to municipal facilities is expected to increase over the period because removal requirements for municipal facilities are assumed to be less stringent than those imposed on industry. Suspended The total generation of suspended solids by point sources is projected to Solids triple between 1975 and 2000 due to population and economic growth. Net discharges are expected to decrease sharply due to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by industrial and municipal point sources. 28 ------- The coal preparation industry would remain, by far, the largest generator of suspended solids throughout the projection period. However, virtually all is abated. The largest discharges of suspended solids in 1975 were from municipal waste- water treatment plants, the aluminum, and pulp and paper industries. Together these sources accounted for about 65 percent of total discharges. By 2000, these industries are expected to achieve a high level of pollutant control, reducing discharges to very low levels. Municipal treatment plants are projected to achieve a lower level of control than industry by 2000, and are expected to account for about three-fourths of net discharges in that year. Dissolved The generation of dissolved solids by point sources is expected to double Solids between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth conditions. Net discharges are also expected to double over the projection period; little abatement of dissolved solids is anticipated. Although water quality criteria for dissolved solids exist, there are no national effluent guidelines. Control of dissolved solids typically occurs coincidentally in the control of other pollutants. Electric utilities are the largest sources of dissolved solids discharges throughout the projection period. In 2000, coal-fired and nuclear-fueled utilities are expected to account for about 60 percent of all dissolved solids discharges. An important industrial source of dissolved solids is the chemicals industry. The organic chemicals industry accounts for about 15 percent of total dis- charges throughout the projection period. The inorganic chemicals industry is the largest generator of dissolved solids; however, much of this is abated in the control of other pollutants. ------- Coal mining and preparation is a large energy-related source of dissolved solids. Nitrogen The generation of nitrogen compounds by point sources is expected to increase by about one-third between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth assump- tions. Net discharges are expected to increase slightly during this period. Removal of other pollutants by industrial and municipal sources is expected to remove some nitrogen from wastewaters coincidentally. Nitrogen effluent limitations imposed on facilities which discharge into water quality limited receiving waters also decrease discharges. These two factors, coincidental removal and nitrogen effluent limitations, offset the effect of economic growth. Municipal wastewater treatment plants are expected to be the major point source of nitrogen throughout the projection period. Net discharge trends follow total generation trends because treatment to remove nitrogen is not assumed to be adopted on a widespread basis. More sophisticated treatment requiring chem- ical or additional biological processes is needed to remove significant quanti- ties of nitrogen from municipal sewage wastewaters. The meat processing industry was a major industrial nitrogen discharger in 1975. However, coincidental removal of nitrogen is expected to considerably reduce the relative importance of this industry over the projection period. Phosphorus The generation of phosphorus compounds by point sources is projected to increase slightly and net discharges to decline slightly under high economic growth conditions between 1975 and 2000. The decline in net discharges is attributable to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by industrial and municipal sources. 30 ------- Municipal wastewater treatment is, by far, the most significant point source of phosphorus, accounting for about 85 percent of total net discharges in 1975 and 95 percent in 2000. Discharges from municipal plants decrease despite in- creases in municipal waste loads. The reduction in net discharges is attrib- utable to two factors: the coincidental removal of phosphorus in secondary treatment and the lower phosphate concentrations in sewage. Nationally, industry is not a major source of phosphorus. Oil and The oil and grease pollutant category includes thousands of organic compounds. Grease It is a concern because of toxicity to aquatic organisms, biochemical oxygen demand, and capacity to foul shorelines and beaches. The generation of oil and grease as a pollutant is expected to increase about 60 percent between 1975 and 2000 under high economic growth conditions. Net discharges are expected to decline about 30 percent during this period. The meat processing industry is expected to generate the most oil and grease throughout the 1975 and 2000 period, but the major net discharger is expected to be the petroleum industry. Oil and grease compounds discharged by this industry are potentially more harmful than natural oil and grease from meat processing. 31 ------- REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGE TRENDS DETAIL Region I Discharges of BOD, suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus, and oil and grease are projected to decrease between 1975 and 2000. Dissolved solids discharges would double due primarily to increases in generation capacity by nuclear facilities. Discharges of point-source water pollutants are projected to be low in 2000 in Region I, compared to other regions. Region II Dissolved solids discharges are projected to nearly double due to increased nuclear generation capacity, and chemical production. Discharges of nutrients also increase slightly, whereas in most regions nutrients decline. The increase may be a result of the Federal Construction Grants Program. Large amounts of nutrients in wastewaters from homes that were previously unsewered would be treated by municipal facilities under this program. Discharges of BOD, suspended solids and oil and grease are projected to de- crease by 2000. Point-source water pollutant discharges are projected to be moderate in Region II in 2000, compared to other regions. Region III An expected near doubling in discharges of dissolved solids is attributed to increases in electricity generation and coal mining activities. 32 ------- Discharges of other water pollutants would decrease or remain constant between 1975 and 2000. Point-source discharges of BOD, suspended and dissolved solids and oil and grease would be high in 2000 in Region III, compared to other regions. Discharges of nutrients would be moderate. Region IV Dissolved solids discharges are expected to more than double due to increased electricity generation by coal-fired and nuclear-fueled utilities. The highest regional dissolved solids discharges in 2000 are expected to occur in Region IV. The Southeast is also projected to receive the highest regional nitrogen and phosphorus discharges in 2000. Municipal wastewater treatment facilities are the largest point source of nutrients. Discharges of BOD, suspended solids and oil and grease are projected to de- cline by 2000. Discharges of these pollutants will nevertheless be comparatively high in Region IV. Region V Discharges in 2000 are lower than discharges in 1975 for most pollutants. Sus- pended solids and oil and grease discharges decline dramatically. Only dis- solved solids discharges are projected to increase due to coal-fired and nuclear-fueled utilities. Despite projected declines, Region V is projected to have the highest regional BOD and suspended solids discharges in 2000. Discharges of dissolved solids and nitrogen are projected to be the second highest, regionally in 2000. Region VI Discharges of dissolved solids would more than double between 1975 and 2000 due to increased production of chemicals coupled with only marginal improvements in wastewater treatment for dissolved solids. 33 ------- Discharges of BOD, suspended solids and oil and grease are expected to remain relatively constant or decline over the projection period. Region VI is projected to receive the highest regional oil and grease loadings in 2000. The primary source of these loadings is the petroleum industry. Nutrient loadings would also be high compared to other regions. Region VII Discharges of all pollutants except dissolved solids are expected to remain re- latively constant or decrease between 1975 and 2000. Suspended solids and oil and grease discharges are expected to be the lowest, regionally, in 2000. Discharges of other water pollutants would also be low. Region VIII Discharges of dissolved solids are expected to nearly double between 1975 and 2000 due to energy production activities such as coal mining and electricity generation. Nitrogen discharges would also increase. BOD, suspended solids, phosphorus, and oil and grease discharges are projected to decrease. Region VIII would receive comparatively low loadings of water pollutants from point-sources in 2000. Loadings were also low in 1975. Region IX Dissolved solids discharges are expected to more than triple over the projection period due to increased generation capacity and chemicals production. Nitrogen discharges also would increase. BOD, suspended solids and phosphorus discharges are expected to decline during the forecast period. Compared to other regions, Region IX would receive moderate discharges of water pollutants from point sources in 2000. 34 ------- Region X Dissolved solids discharges are expected to more than quadruple between 1975 and 2000 due to increased electricity generation by coal-fired and nuclear-fueled utilities. However, Region X would still have the lowest regional discharges of dissolved solids in 2000. Discharges of nutrients are also expected to be the lowest of all regions in 2000. Region X is expected to experience the most notable increases in discharges of oil and grease (450 percent) due to development of Alaskan oil. By 2000, dis- charges of this pollutant would be moderate compared to other regions. 35 ------- Trends in Point-Source Water Pollutant Discharges Region V 30.62 Net Discharges Olher Municipal Sewag Pulp S, Paper Electric Utilities Sleel 1975 2000 Oil & Grease Region V Summary Water Pollutants Major Sources 1975-2000 are Municipal Treatment Facilities and Electric Utilities. Dissolved Solids Increase Coal-Fired Electric Utilities. BOD, Suspended Solids, Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Oil and Grease Decrease. $6 ------- HIGHLIGHTS Discharges of all point-source water pollutants except dissolved solids are expected to decrease. A projected increase of 65 percent in discharges of dissolved solids is attributed to increased electric power generation. Despite projected decreases, Region V is projected to have the highest regional discharges of BOD, suspended solids, nitrogen and oil and grease in 2000. BOD Suspended Solids Dissolved Solids Nitrogen and Phosphorus Oil and Grease Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the largest source. Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the largest source. The steel industry is a large contributor in 1975; however its contribution to the total in 2000 is insignificant. Major source is energy production - coal mining and preparation and utilities. The chemicals industry is also a major contributor. Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the major source. Releases from crude petroleum import operations and the chemicals industry are the major sources in 2000. The steel industry accounts for 75 percent of discharges in 1975, however its contribution drops to 5 percent by 2000. The anticipated shift away from open hearth steelmaking would curtail net discharges. CAVEATS AND ASSUMPTIONS The data presented represent .point-source discharges of water pollutants from industrial and municipal sources. Although most major polluting industries have been included, recent changes in industrial composition may not be reflected. The vast majority of Region V is expected to be served by advanced municipal treatment plants by 2000 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1976 Needs Survey; Cost Estimates for Construction of Publicly-Owned Wastewater Treatment Facilities, Washington, D.C., 1977). Trends in dissolved solid releases depend on assumptions of utility growth in Region V and on the inclusion of cooling tower blowdown as a point-source discharge. 37 ------- TRENDS IN POINT-SOURCE WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES REGION V DETAIL Biochemical Oxygen Demand The total generation of BOD by point sources in Region V is projected to increase about 70 percent between 1975 and 2000 due to population and economic growth. Net discharges of BOD are projected to decrease by about 30 percent between 1975 and 2000 due to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by indus- trial and municipal point sources. Municipal wastewater treatment plants are the major point source of BOD, ac- counting for about 60 percent of net discharges in 1975. By 2000, this propor- tion is expected to increase to 75 percent. BOD removal requirements for municipal facilities are assumed to be less stringent than those imposed on industry. The pulp and paper industry is projected to be the major industrial source of BOD between 1975 and 2000. A process shift and improvement in removal effi- ciencies expected during this time period should decrease BOD loadings from industry. Suspended The total generation of suspended solids by point sources in Region V is pro- Solids jected to increase by 150 percent between 1975 and 2000 due to population and economic growth. Net discharges are expected to decrease sharply due to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by industrial and municipal point sources. 38 ------- The coal preparation industry would remain, by far, the largest generator of suspended solids throughout the projection period. However, virtually all is abated^ The largest net discharges of suspended solids in 1975 were from municipal wastewater treatment plants, the steel industry, and the pulp and paper indus- try. Together these sources accounted for about three-fourths of net dis- charges. By 2000, the industries are expected to achieve a high level of pol- lutant control, reducing discharges to very low levels. Municipal treatment plants are projected to achieve a lower level of control than industry by 2000, and are expected to account for about three-fourths of total discharges in that year. Dissolved The total generation of dissolved solids by point sources in Region V is Solids expected to nearly double between 1975 and 2000. Net discharges are expected to increase by about 65 percent over the projection period. Little abatement of dissolved solids is anticipated. Although water quality criteria for dissolved solids exist, there are no ef- fluent guidelines. Some control of dissolved solids typically occurs coincidentally in the control of other pollutants. Electric utilities are the largest source of dissolved solids discharges throughout the projection period. In 2000, coal-fired and nuclear-fueled utilities are expected to account for about 70 percent of all dissolved solids discharges. Coal mining and preparation is another large energy-related source of dissolved solids in Region V. An important industrial source of dissolved solids is the chemicals industry which accounts for about 10 percent of net discharges throughout the projection period. 39 ------- Nitrogen The total generation of nitrogen compounds in Region V is expected to increase by about 30 percent between 1975 and 2000. Net discharge levels in 2000 are expected to be comparable to those in 1975. Removal of other pollutants from wastewater by industrial and municipal sources is expected to remove some nitrogen coincidentally. Nitrogen effluent limitations imposed on facilities which discharge into water quality limited receiving waters also decreases discharges. These two factors, coincidental removal and nitrogen effluent limitations, offset the effect of economic growth. Municipal wastewater treatment plants are expected to be the major point- source discharger of nitrogen throughout the projection period. Net discharge trends follow total generation trends because treatment to remove nitrogen is not assumed to be adopted on a widespread basis. More sophisticated treatment requiring chemical or additional biological processes is needed to remove sig- nificant quantities of nitrogen from municipal sewage wastewaters. The meat products processing industry was a major industrial nitrogen dis- charger in 1975. However, coincidental removal of nitrogen is expected to con- siderably reduce the relative importance of this industry over the projection period Phosphorus The total generation of phosphorus compounds is projected to increase slightly and net discharges to decline about 35 percent between 1975 and 2000. The de- cline in net discharges is attributable to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by industrial and municipal sources. Municipal wastewater treatment is, by far, the most significant point source of phosphorus, accounting for about 85 percent of total net discharges in 1975 and 95 percent in 2000. Discharges from municipal plants decrease despite increa- ses in municipal waste loads. The reduction in net discharges is attributable to two factors: the coincidental removal of phosphorus in secondary treatment and decreased use of phosphate detergents. 40 ------- Oil and The oil and grease pollutant category includes thousands of organic compounds. Grease It is a concern because of toxicity to aquatic organisms, biochemical oxygen demand, and capacity to foul shorelines and beaches. The total generation of oil and grease as a pollutant is expected to increase about 50 percent between 1975 and 2000 in Region V. Net discharges are ex- pected to decline about 80 percent during this period. The petroleum and the chemicals industries are the major dischargers of oil and grease in 2000. Major industrial sources of oil and grease in 1975 are the steel and meat products processing industries. By 2000, the contribution of the steel industry to total.discharges is small. The anticipated shift away from open hearth steelmaking and assumed compliance with effluent limitations would curtail net discharges. Municipal Wastewater Treatment Population in Region V is expected to grow from about 45 million in 1975 to about 50 million in 2000, an increase of 10 percent. Over 75 percent of the population was served by municipal wastewater treatment plants in 1975; about 35 percent was secondary or advanced treatment. By 2000, over 95 percent of the population in Region V is expected be be served by municipal treatment plants. Nearly all of the plants will be secondary or advanced. Almost three-quarters of the population is expected to be served by tertiary plants. 41 ------- Trends in Solid Waste Generation from Pollution Control Region V Other Cement , Asphalt Hfl Steel Industrial Combustion ~^-; Coal-Fired Utilities NOTE: The projections presented here include Solid wastes from pollution control only. 19752000 1975 2000 1975 2000 Noncombustible Industrial Municipal Solid Waste Sludge Sewage Sludge Region V Summary Solid Waste from Pollution Control Major Source of NCSW and Industrial Sludge in 2000 Is Coal-Fired Utilities. Sewage Sludge Generated by Municipal Facilities. NCSW, Industrial Sludge and Municipal Sewage Sludge Increase. 42 ------- TRENDS IN SOLID WASTE GENERATION FROM POLLUTION CONTROL REGION V HIGHLIGHTS The solid waste generated through abatement of air and water pollutants is expected to increase between 1975 and 2000 in Region V. Coal combustion, municipal wastewater treatment, and the steel industry are the major sources of solid waste. Generation of industrial sludge is projected to increase nearly nine-fold between 1975 and 2000. Generation of noncombustible solid waste is projected to double between 1975 and 2000. Generation of municipal sewage sludge is projected to increase by about 50 percent between 1975 and 2000. Some of the wastes generated, particularly those included as industrial sludge, may be clas- sified under the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) as hazardous wastes. CAVEATS Projections are limited to solid wastes generated by removal of air and water pollutants. Projections are based on dry tons. Industrial sludge projection does not include solid wastes from industrial wastewater treatment. All SOX scrubbers are nonregenerable. 43 ------- NATIONAL PROJECTIONS OF ANNUAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION (106 Tons Per Year) Type of Waste Industrial Municipal Mining Secondary Silvicultural Animal Demolition 1975 14 138 2,300 95 169 2,000 90 2000 20 220 5,800 - 7,300 350 276 2,700 150** Secondary solid wastes are solid wastes from pollution control **1990 Estimate Source: Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Outlook 1980, EPA 600/8-80-003, Washington, D.C., December 1979. (Draft) 44 ------- TRENDS IN SOLID WASTE GENERATION FROM POLLUTION CONTROL REGION V DETAIL Noncombustible Solid Waste Annual generation of noncombustible solid waste in Region V is expected to double between 1975 and 2000. This growth rate is much lower than the national growth rate. The major source of noncombustible solid waste is coal-fired electric util- ities. By 2000, new and converted utilities account for 60 percent of gen- eration. The construction materials industry is the major non-energy contributor to noncombustible solid waste generation, accounting for 15 percent of the total in 1975 and 2000. Industrial Sludge Annual industrial sludge generation in Region V is expected to increase almost 9-fold between 1975 and 2000. This growth rate is less than the national rate. In 1975, the major sources were the asphalt and steel industries. In 2000, the major source is expected to be new coal-fired utilities (combustion re- siduals and secondary sludges from pollution control devices). Municipal Sewage Sludge As a result of projected population growth and improved treatment, municipal sewage sludge generation is expected to increase by about 50 percent over the 1975 level by 2000, a growth rate nearly matching that of the nation as a whole. Captured particulates and bottom ash from combustion processes and captured dust from numer- ous production activities. 45 ------- Air Pollutant Trends Water Pollutant Trends Solid Waste Generation Trends Selected Special Topics for Region V Threats to Human Health Toxic Substances Hazardous Wastes and Spills Threats to Ecosystems Chemical Deposition Environmental Policy Dilemmas Energy Demand Fuel Substitution Synthetic Fuels 47 ------- Toxic Substances Exposure can occur through everyday activities Effects can be acute or remain latent for decades ------- TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT HIGHLIGHTS INTRODUCTION This series of slides presents: evidence of widespread exposure to toxics; trends in production of some toxic chemicals; trends in hazardous wastes generation; and a brief description of ORD efforts in the area of emergency spill control. Exposure to toxic substances is a frequent occurrence to which no one is immune. The principal hazard to most people appears to be from chronic exposures, the effects result- ing from prolonged or repeated exposures to chemical agents in the environment. Some occupa- tional situations or accidents result in acute toxic effects, which may lead to impairment of bodily function or death. 49 ------- Pesticides in Mothers' Milk Mid-1970's Compound DDE DDT Dieldrin Heptachlor epoxide Oxychlordane (3-BHC PCBs Number Positive (Percent) 100 99 81 64 63 87 30b Mean of Positive (ug/kg fat)a 3,521 529 164 91 96 183 2,076 Maximum (ug/kg fat) 214,167 34,369 123,000 2,050 5,700 9,217 12,600 b99 percent detectable PCBs: (30 percent ^1,100 ug per kilogram of fat; 1,038 women). Source: Adapted from Ames, B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemicals Causing Mutations and Cancers," Science, Vol. 204,1979, pp. 582-593. ChJorinated Hydrocarbon Residues in Human Fata Mid-1970's Compound PCB Hexachlorobenzene BHC (Lindane) Oxychlordane Trans-nonachlor Heptachlor epoxide Dieldrin p,p'-DDE o.p'-DDT p,p'-TDE p,p'-DDT Amount"" (ug/kg Wet Weight) 907 62 65 55 65 43 69 2,095 31 6 439 Percentage of Samples Containing Residues 100 100 88 97 99 100 100 100 63 26 100 aAverage of 168 Canadian Samples: Most are carcinogens. bValues are means. Source: Adapted from Ames, B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemicals Causing Mutations and Cancers," Science, Vol. 201, 1979, p. 587. 50 ------- TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT HIGHLIGHTS Benzene, a known carcinogen, is found in many household items including denatured alcohol, carburetor cleaner, rubber cement for patch kits, and arts and craft supplies. Individuals living near roads and highways may face up to nine times the normal risk of de- veloping cancer due to exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted by automobiles. 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), an acknowledged toxicant, is a common contaminant in certain widely-used pesticides; e.g., 2,4,5-T and Silvex. This chemical has been shown to be toxic at exposure levels as low as 500 parts per trillion (monkeys) and carcinogenic at exposure levels as low as 5 parts per trillion (rats). In general, environmentally-related cancers do not become evident for 15 to 40 years after exposure. However, the latency period can be as short as 2 years or as long as 50 years. Increases in smoking have been reflected in increases in the incidence of lung cancer 20 to 25 years later. The table on the left shows that significant amounts of many toxic substances, some of which are carcinogens, have been found in human milk. The table on the right shows that residues of toxics have also been found in human body fat. A high percentage of samples contain detectable residues of toxic substances. 51 ------- TOXIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ENVIRONMENT DETAIL Exposure Pathways Exposure to toxic substances is a commonplace occurrence. Toxic substances are present in: - air - water - food - materials Individuals come in contact with toxics in many places: - work - home - recreation The Hudson River is contaminated with numerous toxic substances including PCBs, benzene, xylene, cyclohexane, tetrahydrofuran, toluene and chloroform. These substances pose a health threat to the 150,000 people in upstate New York who drink treated river watert and are harm- ful to aquatic life. The Great Lakes are also contaminated with many toxic substances such as PCBs. 52 ------- Effects of Exposure Toxic effects may remain latent for decades or can be instantly obvious. A study conducted by Reznik et_ al., attempts to establish a link between a research chemist's exposure to BIS (chloromethyl) ether and his death twelve years later from a pulmonary adenocarcinoma (Reznik, G. , et al. "Lung Cancer Following Exposure to BIS (chloromethyl) ether: A Case Report." J. Environ. Pathol. Toxicol., 1 (1), 105-111, 1978.) Toxic substances and human exposure is addressed in three different ways in this briefing: - toxic chemicals production - hazardous waste - oil and hazardous substances spills ------- Selected Trends in Chemical Production 1968-2000 Millions of Tons 20.0 18.0 14.0 10.0 Chlorine/BTXAroma|)cs 32'V Vinyl Chloride Ethylene Dichloride Benzene Acrylonitrile Year 1970 19751978 1985 Historical Projected 2000 Chemical Production in Region V Industry 1972 SIC Code 2865 2869 286947 2879 2892 2812 2813 2816 2819 Name Cyclic Crudes and Intermediates Industrial Organic Chemicals NEC3 Technical Pesticides (Production and Formulation) Explosives Alkalines and Chlorine Industrial Gases Inorganic Pigments Industrial Inorganic Chemicals NECa Percent of National Total in Region 11 5 14 24 14 28 5 11 'NEC = Not Elsewhere Classified. 54 ------- PRODUCTION TRENDS FOR SELECTED: TOXIC CHEMICALS HIGHLIGHTS Production and use of chemicals has increased dramatically since 1950. Aggregated chemical industry production figures may indicate potential exposure to toxics in the environment. Based on industry figures for six selected toxic chemicals, production of toxics has shown strong growth in the past and is expected to continue this pattern. Vinyl chloride has been the subject of considerable regulatory action. Benzene and acrylonitrile have been identi- fied by EPA as priority pollutants. A large portion of national production in several chemical industries is located in Region V: technical pesticides, explosives, alkalines and chlorine, and industrial gases. Several products of the above industries have been classified as priority pollutants, includ- ing lindane, chlordane, and dinitrotoluene. Chemical Production in Region V SIC 2865 2869 28694X 2879 2892 2812 2813 2816 2819 Industry Cyclic Crudes and In termediatea Industrial Organic Chemic-als NEC and Technical Organic Pest Controls (Pesticides) Explosives Alkalines and Chlorine Industrial Gases Inorganic Pigments Industrial Inorganics Percent of National Production (Tons) Selected Products in Region Va Benzene, Ethylene Dichloride Chlorobenzene, Phenol Acrylonitrile. Chloroform Ch 1 o rome thane Biachloromethylether . Chlordane,* Lindane, Endrin* Nitroglycerin, Dinitrotoluene* Chlorine Acetylene, Helium Hydrofluoric acid, Chromates 11 5 14 24 14 28 5 11 ^Compound on Section 311 Clean Water Act Priority Pollutants List. "Based-on 1972 Census of Manufactures data. "The product-ion of pigments involves the use of many toxic metals including such priority pollutants as chromium,, zinc, mercury, and selenium. 55 ------- PRODUCTION TRENDS FOR SELECTED TOXIC CHEMICALS DETAIL Trends in the production of six chemicals are discussed chlorine - BTX aromatics ethylene dichloride - vinyl chloride - benzene - acrylonitrile These chemicals were chosen for discussion because they are major feedstocks or intermediates in the production of toxic chemicals and are toxic themselves. These chemicals are used as indicators of trends in the production of toxics. Chlorine - Annual production has increased at a rate of about 2.6 percent per year between 1968 and 1978 according to industry figures. - This rate of growth is expected to increase to nearly 5.0 percent per year between 1978 and 2000. Chlorine is an essential feedstock in the production of chlorinated organic compounds, the bulk of which are toxic and/or carcinogenic. BTX Aromatics - BTX aromatics (Benzene, Toluene, Xylene) are major feedstocks in the production of organic chemicals. - The historic growth rate of almost 5 percent per year (1968-1978) is expected to decline to about 4 percent per year in the period 1978-2000. 56 ------- Vinyl Chloride - Vinyl chloride is a known toxicant and carcinogen. Production of this chemical increased at an annual rate of nearly 9 percent between 1968 and 1978. Production of vinyl chloride is expected to increase at an annual rate of over 7 percent between 1978 and 2000. Ethylene Bichloride (1,2-dichloroethane) - Ethylene dichloride production is expected to grow at a rate of 5.0 percent per year between 1978 and 2000. This growth is slower than the over 8 percent per year growth exhibited between 1968 and 1978. - Ethylene dichloride has been identified under Section 307 of the Clean Water Act as a priority pollutant and is an intermediate in the production of vinyl chloride and other chemicals. Benzene - Annual production of benzene is expected to grow at a rate of about 4 percent per year between 1978 and 2000, continuing the pattern set between 1968 and 1978. - Benzene, a known carcinogen, is a major chemical feedstock and has been identified in air samples taken in and around the Love Canal dumpsite. Acrylonitrile - Acrylonitrile production grew at a rate of over 5 percent per year between 1968 and 1978. Significantly slower growth is expected between 1978 and 2000. - Acrylonitrile, also a priority pollutant, is a major chemical intermediate. 57 ------- Hazardous Wastes Past Disposal Practices Secure Olher Landlills Adequate (2%) Methods (2%) Other Inadequate Methods (2%) Uncontrolled Incineration (10%) "X Non-Secur Landfills (30%) \ Controlled - Incineration (6%) Unllned Surface - Impoundments (48%) Inadequate Method ' Adequate Method Fraction of 1975 Total 2.5 2.0 1.0 - National Trends in Hazardous Waste Generation Industries (SIC Code) Other Paper and Allied Products (26) Primary Metals (33) Machinery (except Electrical) (35) Chemicals and Allied Products (28) 1965 1970 1975 1985 2000 58 ------- HIGHLIGHTS Past Inadequate disposal of hazardous wastes has caused air, water and land con- Disposal tamination and severe health problems. EPA estimates that only about 10 percent of hazardous wastes have been disposed of properly. Future Final regulations under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) to Generation control hazardous wastes are currently being promulgated. The cost to industry of implementing the regulations has been estimated by EPA at about $510 million annually. Nationally, hazardous waste generation is expected to double between 1975 and 2000. The chemicals and allied products industry is expected to be the major industry generating hazardous wastes throughout the projection period. Hazardous Waste Site Enforcement and Response System - Immediate EPA response to the hazardous waste site problem. - Regional records of all reported sites, whether known to present a hazard or not. Of 5,540 sites logged through April 30, 1980, 661 sites are located in Region V. - Supported by $10 million in site investigation contracts and $1 million in sample analysis contracts. CAVEATS These projections do not include hazardous wastes from households, hospitals, coal-fired utilities, or industrial wastewater treatment. The projections presented here are based on 1975 hazardous waste generation estimates. Pro- jections for other years were made using earnings projections for each Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code and the 1975 base estimates. Detail of methodology is presented in Appendix B. The projections for future years do not take into account any changes in production processes or recycling that may arise because of the RCRA regulations. Such effects are the subject of a chapter of Environmental Outlook 1981, in preparation. 59 ------- TRENDS IN HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION DETAIL Trends Annual national hazardous waste generation is estimated to have increased 30 percent between 1965 and 1975. This is equivalent to an average annual growth rate of nearly 3 percent. Most of this growth occurred between 1965 and 1970. Annual hazardous waste generation is expected to more than double in the period 1975 to 2000. This is an expected annual growth rate of about 3.5 percent. The growth in annual generation is expected to be much faster in the period 1985-2000 than in the period 1975-1985. Annual generation of hazardous wastes in Region V is expected to more than double between 1975 and 2000, roughly tracking the national trend. Sources The chemicals and allied products industry is estimated to be the major source of hazardous wastes in all projection years. Three other industries, machinery, primary metals, and paper and allied products, are also estimated to be significant sources in all years, according to these estimates. In Region V, the three major generating industries in 1975 were the chemicals and allied products industry (about 8 million wet tons), the primary metals industry (about 2 million wet tons), and the machinery industry (about 2 million wet tons). These three industries are expected to remain the major generating industries throughout the projection period. Inadequate Disposal According to EPA estimates, about 90 percent of hazardous wastes have been disposed of inade- quately, despite the fact that numerous techniques exist to reduce the volume of hazardous wastes and/or insure their safe disposal. Among these are: - secure landfills - controlled incineration 60 ------- - controlled deep well injection - biological/chemical treatment - waste exchanges/resource recovery Hazardous wastes disposed of inadequately in the past are a critical problem now. There may be a considerable time delay between the disposal of a hazardous waste and its impact on human health and the environment. Location As of April 30, 1980, EPA has entered a total of 5,540 sites into the Hazardous Waste Site Tracking System. Of these, 1,044 have been inspected, 120 tentative dispositions made, and 19 suits filed.* The States have filed an additional 46 suits. EPA and the State of California have jointly filed a suit against Hooker Chemical Company concerning Hooker's Lathrop, California site. Some 661 sites from Region V have been entered into the tracking system. Of these sites, 189 have been inspected. Suits have been filed on 6 of the sites. Future Disposal Subtitle C of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) provides for the identi- fication of hazardous wastes, institution of a system to track wastes through their life cy- cle, and establishment of a permit system. Final regulations are being promulgated now. The cost of RCRA to industry has been estimated by EPA to be $510 million annually. The Great Lakes Basin Plan contains a section on hazardous materials with more than 30 recommendations, including the following - state facility siting boards - common manifest system - waste exchanges - guidelines for establishing site liability ''EPA filed 2 additional suits between 5/1/80 and 5/16/80. 61 ------- ORD Emergency Spill Response Program Objectives Demonstrate Spill Control Technologies and Techniques Identify Safe Ultimate Disposal Methods Program Areas Prevention Notification and Response Control and Removal Ultimate Disposal Fate and Effects Restoration 62 ------- HIGHLIGHTS Approximately 15,000 spills occur annually in the U.S. Between October 1977 and September 1979 over 470 hazardous materials spills were reported to the Region V office. Current estimates for Region V: 1,000 to 1,200 oil and hazardous materials spills per year (many spills go unreported) - about 20 percent are hazardous material spills Eleven significant spills occurred in Region V between 1979 and 1980 (to date): - Seymour, Indiana Hamilton, Ohio Deerfield, Ohio NOTE: The determination that a spill is significant is made at EPA Headquarters based on the quantity of the spill, extent of property damage, potential for human health impair- ment, and the extent of response required. The left-hand photograph is of clean-up operations at the Deerfield, Ohio site. The major objectives of the EPA Emergency Spill Response Program are: 1) to demonstrate technology and techniques for protecting the water, land and air from accidental releases, and 2) to identify environmentally sound methods for the disposal of contaminated wastes associated with cleanup operations. These objectives are being pursued in six areas of emergency spill R&D: - prevention - notification and response - control and removal - ultimate disposal - fate and effects - restoration 63 ------- OIL AND HAZARDOUS MATERIAL SPILLS DETAIL Spills of oil and hazardous substances occur as a result of - accidents - equipment malfunction - human error - deliberate discharge Results of spills - extensive property damage - personal injury or death from fire and explosion - potential chronic effects, like birth defects or cancer, from exposure to toxic substances - contamination of water supplies - destruction of food supplies - contamination of recreational areas Approximately 15,000 spills occur annually in the United States. Over 3000 hazardous materials incidents were reported to EPA regional offices between October 1977 and September 1979. Most of these incidents were spills of oil or hazardous substances. Materials spilled ranged from PCB to alcohol; quantities ranged from less than one pint to millions of gallons. In the October 1977 to September 1979 period over 470 hazardous material spills were reported to the Region V office. Region V estimates that between 1,000 and 1,200 occur in the region annually. About 20 percent of the spills are of hazardous materials. Eleven significant spills in Region V were reported to EPA in 1979 and 1980 (to date). The determination that a spill is "significant" is made at EPA Headquarters based on the quan- tity of the spill, extent of property damage, potential for human health impairment, and the extent of response required. 64 ------- SIGNIFICANT SPILLS IN REGION V REPORTED TO EPA 1979 - 1980 (To Date) Location Date Incident Brooklyn Center, MN 1/08/79 Pesticide plant fire Brownsburg, IN Inkster, MI Wadsworth, OH *Deerfield, OH Millfield, OH St. Cloud, MN Chicago, IL Momence, IL Indianapolis, IN *Seymour, IN *Hamilton, OH 1/16/79 Broken pipeline valve 3/06/79 Unknown 3/17/79 Vandalized storage tanks 9/14/79 Dumpsite runoff 1/13/80 Train derailment 1/14/80 Pipeline fracture 2/14/80 Pipe leak 2/15/80 Train derailment 2/25/80 Storage tank leak 3/28/80 Chemical explosion, runoff continuing Potential spill condition Material/Volume Aatrex/20,000 gal. Atrazine SOW/3,500 Ibs. Various other chemicals Oil/at least 20,000 gal. Oil/at least 50,000 gal. NR 2 oil/13,000 gal. MEK, toluene, latex, oils and Mirex Toluene diisocyanate/20 tank cars Crude oil/200,000 gal. Sulfuric acid/700 gal. Ammonium phosphate/50 tons NR 2 oil/65,000 gal. Many hazardous substances/ quantities unknown Various chemicals, polymers, solvents, etc./20,000 drums 'Summary of this spill provided. 65 ------- SPILL SUMMARY SEYMOUR, INDIANA Name of Company: Seymour Recycling Materials Involved: 50,000 barrels of various chemicals (phenolic materials and benzene) both leaking and intact, plus several large storage tanks. At least 25 Section 311 hazardous substances detected in stream outside north fence of the property. Area of this site is about 13 acres. Threat: The stream outside the north fence of the recycling plant is a tributary to the east fork of the White River, which flows to the Wabash River, which merges into the Ohio River. Actions Taken: The on-site coordinator hired a contractor under Section 311 and is taking the following actions: identifying materials in drums, - classifying materials by chemical family, redrumming, - consolidating drums, - activated carbon treatments, - grading to control surface runoff. Current Cost: Estimated at $500K under Section 311. Current Status: Cleanup effort is estimated to take about two weeks. 66 ------- SPILL SUMMARY DEERFIELD, OHIO Name of Company: Summit National Liquid Services Materials Involved: Several thousand leaking barrels, a 300,000 gallon cracked and leaking con- crete storage tank and other storage vessels. These containers are used to store wastes including acetone, MEK, toluene, latex, oils and Mirex. Area of this site is about 11 acres. Threat: Residents live within 200 feet of this site. The site presents a fire hazard as well as a possible source of soil and groundwater contamination. Contamination of local drinking water reservoir is also possible. Actions Taken: Site has been closed since 1978 by order of Ohio EPA. Cleanup actions are currently underway. Cost: Cleanup and abatement costs estimated at over 2 million dollars. 67 ------- SPILL SUMMARY HAMILTON, OHIO Name of Company: Chemdyne, Inc. Materials Involved: 20,000 drums of various chemicals, polymers, solvents, etc, Threat: Chemdyne, Inc. is located in downtown Hamilton, about 1,000 yards from a power plant. There was great concern over the disposal of 17 drums labeled "Nitrocellulose," which is potentially explosive when in an unstable state. Actions Taken: About 50 drums were moved to gain access to the 17 potentially explosive drums, After an initial treatment with a solvent to stabilize the nitrocellulose, one drum exploded, with no injuries occurring. Further sampling revealed only the presence of calcium hypochlorite, no nitrocellulose. Current Cost: 104 Environmental Energy Fund Ceiling stands at $22K. Current Status: Response actions to mitigate immediate emergency are completed. ------- ORD EMERGENCY SPILL RESPONSE PROGRAM DETAIL Prevention Determine causes of past spills and feasibility and cost effectiveness of spill prevention. - develop safety technology and protocols for impoundment areas, plants, loading sites and storage facilities. coordinate effort with DOT to improve transportation safety and reduce accidents. Develop spill prevention techniques and equipment level gages transfer lines - couplings seals - revised oil spill prevention regulations Improve current surveillance and analysis capabilities supports all areas of spill response assists in contingency planning - assists in analysis of final restoration The above R&D is directed at providing the program offices with technical information for promulgating guidelines for establishing a "standard of care." 69 ------- Notification and Response Protection of response personnel Spill identification and detection Impact prediction air - surface and groundwater - land First Priority: Continued development of personal protective equipment and safety devices for spill response personnel Equal Priority: Preparation of emergency action manual - situation assessment - identification and detection - confinement - control of air pollution Longer term areas - computer modeling of spill plume movement - development and demonstration of field kits and flowthrough spill alarm systems Control and Removal Develop and demonstrate control and cleanup equipment and guidelines for acceptable cleanup operations. focus on., simple equipment which is rapidly deployable for temporary containment 70 ------- Develop and demonstrate technologies for on-site purification, recovery, and separation of removed substances from treatment agents and inert materials - directly enhances cost effectiveness of cleanup decreases dangers of transport of spill material Develop guidelines and techniques for shoreline protection and restoration Develop and demonstrate techniques for the control of volatile substances (particularly air pollution control) preparation of emergency manuals - supplement currently available manuals Operation of the Oil and Hazardous Materials Simulated Environmental Test Tank (OHMSETT) - test equipment and techniques - currently testing chemical and biological control agents Ultimate Disposal Develop or adopt technology for disposing of all non-reuseable contaminated waste and site debris Program geared to developing novel procedures for - converting refractory organics to C02, water, salts, etc. - immobilizing toxic constituents sophisticated degradative application of microorganisms and nutrients Fate and Effects Determine ecological effects of acute discharges of hazardous substances 71 ------- Restoration Assist in providing guidelines for assessing the extent of and remedying the damage of a hazardous spill without major disruptions of the surrounding ecosystems. Develop and field test experimental techniques and equipment designed to accelerate recovery of spill damaged waters and soils through microbial degradation. Emergency Spill Equipment Developed By ORD Mobile Physical/Chemical Treatment System Cyclic Colorimeter Hazardous Materials Detection Kit Organo-phosphate Pesticide Detection and Warning System Foam Dike System Dynamic Inclined Plane Skimming System Acoustic Emission Earth Dam Spill Alert Device Mobile Chemical Laboratory Spill Assessment Laboratory Safety/Decontamination/Office Trailer Mobile Stream Diversion System Mobile Froth Flotation System Pump/Collection Bag System Gelling Agent System Spill Alarm System Enviro-pod Aerial Monitoring and Surveillance Water Jet Boom System Key Accomplishments Development of standard laboratory testing procedures which will provide information on the environmental behavior of chemicals. Development of a mobile system for the high pressure injection of neutralizing chemicals into soil. This system is an alternative to excavating large volumes of contaminated soil that would require further treatment or disposal. 72 ------- Publication of "Hazardous Materials Spill Monitoring Safety Handbook and Chemical Hazard Guide," a document which describes safety precautions, first aid, and hazards from 655 chemicals. Studies of five indirect acting carcinogens which may be useful in characterizing exposure and risk from individual carcinogenic substances. 73 ------- Chemical Deposition Pollutants we release into the atmosphere eventually return to the earththreatening the balance of natural systems Acid precipitation Toxic metals, neutralizing agents, other pollutants Interactions after deposition Formation and Deposition of Acidic Organic and Toxic Components NO. ~HNO3 ^TT,\T^, . Wet and Dry ...... <..''.:'''.'''. Deposition . Agricultural Land Man Drinking Water 74 ------- CHEMICAL DEPOSITION HIGHLIGHTS Precipitation acidity apparently results from combustion-produced gases S02 and NOX being oxidized to ^804 and HN03, respectively, in the atmosphere. The acids produced are then deposited, wet and dry, on land and water. At present, sulfur and nitrogen are major contributors to the chemical deposition problem. Nationally, sulfur emissions are expected to level off throughout the 1980s, while nitrogen emissions continue to increase. Nitrogen compounds should thus become more important in total contribution to the chemical deposition problem. Other substances deposited in precipitation may include toxic metals and organic compounds, neutralizing compounds and radioactive particles. This aspect of chemical deposition is receiving further attention as part of Environmental Outlook 1981. Acid deposition has had substantial adverse effects on the environment, including acidifica- tion of lakes, rivers, and streams, with measurable damage to aquatic ecosystems. No existing U.S. environmental regulations directly address the acid precipitation problem; however, a criteria document on particulates and sulfur oxides is currently being updated by EPA's Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office. The goal of EPA's Acid Rain Research Program is to develop an understanding of the mechanisms and effects of acid deposition. To meet this objective, EPA has outlined objectives for monitoring, and for studying atmospheric processes and environmental effects. 75 ------- CHEMICAL DEPOSITION DETAIL Projections suggest increasing acidity of precipitation over the northeastern U.S. Emissions of sulfur oxides, the predominant contributor, are expected to level off throughout the 1980s; however, nitrogen oxides emissions continue to increase. Recent studies have shown an increasingly important contribution from NOX. Emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels are relatively enriched with several trace ele- ments which are potentially toxic to humans. There is concern that increased use of coal for energy production will increase atmospheric concentrations of harmful trace elements. These trace elements may also act as catalytic agents for reactions among pollutant gases in the air. Atmospheric deposition has been cited by the Great Lakes Basin Commission as a signifi- cant source of toxics in the Great Lakes. Organic compounds, many of which are well known pollutants, also have significant roles in other atmospheric chemistry cycles. Organic compounds are one of the principal sources of oxygen for oxidation of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere. The nitrogen oxide cycle and the ozone/oxidant cycles also involve organic compounds as major sources of oxygen. The exact chemistry of these reactions is, at present, not understood. Several substances reduce the acidity of the atmosphere and of wet and dry chemical deposi- tion. Some of these neutralizing substances are man-made, but for the most part neutrali- zers arise from natural sources. Natural resources of neutralization compounds include ammonia gases, marine aerosols and fugitive dust from naturally alkaline soil. These sub- stances may react with acid components in the air, but their actual chemical components and reactions need further study. 76 ------- The goal of EPA's Acid Rain Research Program is to develop a basic understanding of the source-receptor relationships of acid deposition and determine the cost associated with acid deposition effects. This will enable EPA to determine the need for and type of measures to control and/or counteract the damages from atmospheric acid deposition. To meet this goal, EPA is establishing objectives in areas of: - monitoring - atmospheric processes environmental effects 77 ------- Concentrations of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in 1975 Heavy Concentrations A Moderate Concentrations Increased Acidity in Precipitation Over Natural H* Concentration (pH 5.7) Great Lakes Basin Multiple of Natural H ' Concentration <10X 10 25X >25X ILLINOIS I INDIANA PENNSYLVANIA 78 ------- ACID PRECIPITATION - PATTERNS OF EMISSIONS AND pH OF RAIN HIGHLIGHTS Historical The left-hand map shows the pattern of emissions of sulfur dioxide in the U.S. in Emissions 1975. The plots indicate the areas where emissions are concentrated because of Patterns the activity of utilities and industry. The dots, indicate areas where emissions were heavy (50-100 kilotons). Triangles indicate areas where emissions were mod- erate (1-10 kilotons). The Great Lakes Region contains areas where emission den- sities are among the highest in the nation. The map was constructed using data obtained by Brookhaven National Laboratory, and appeared in Likens, G.E. £t_ _al., "Acid Rain." Scientific American, 241 (4): 43-51, 1979. pH of Rain The right-hand map shows areas of increased acidity of precipitation over natural concentration. According to the Great Lakes Science Advisory Board, the Great Lakes watershed is receiving precipitation which contains 5 to 40 times more acid than precipitation under natural conditions (pH 5.7). Acidification is greatest near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. It is likely that emissions from highly indus- trialized areas to the south and west are carried by prevailing winds to the Lake Erie/Lake Ontario area and cause increased acidity of precipitation. The map was constructed using data from the Canadian Network for Sampling Precip- itation (CANSAP) (1977). The map appeared in Great Lakes Science Advisory Board, Annual Report to the International Joint Commission, July 1979. * The Atmospheric Pollutants Loading Study was established to estimate total pol- lutant loadings to the Great Lakes. The study is being directed by the EPA Cen- tral Regional Laboratory in cooperation with the State of Michigan Department of Natural Resources, the Grosse lie Laboratory, and the EPA Office of Research and Development. The monitoring network consists of 37 sampling sites. Some 30 parameters are analyzed including organic and inorganic compounds and metals. 79 ------- Generalized NO,, SO- Emissions Trends _ High NO,. SO, Emissions in 1975 and 2' ^^^ Rapid Increase in NO,. SO, Emissions between 1975 and 2000 Areas Highly Sensitive To Acid Precipitation 1 Sensitivity based on bedrock type SSSS Study area SO ------- ACID PRECIPITATION - TRENDS IN EMISSIONS AND SENSITIVE AREAS HIGHLIGHTS Trends Emissions of precursors (SOX, NOX) are expected to remain high in Region V in between 1975 and 2000. Region V is expected to receive the highest regional emis- Emissions sions of SOX, and the second highest emissions of NOX in 2000. On the basis of these trends, acidification of precipitation can be expected to continue. Because of prevailing wind patterns, emissions of precursors in Region V could af- fect air quality in nearby regions of the U.S. and Canada. The New York Depart- ment of Environmental Conservation contends that sulfur oxides emitted in the Ohio River Valley are a major contributor to acid rain problems in the Adirondack Mountains. Sensitive The Acid Rain Research Program at EPA's Duluth Laboratory is designed to assess Areas acid deposition rates and effects in Precambrian bedrock areas of the northern Great Lakes states. The right-hand map shows areas where lakes studied by the EPA Duluth Laboratory are located in relation to areas predicted to have high sensitivity to acid pre- cipitation. Three-fourths of the lakes sampled were determined to be susceptible to acidification. 81 ------- ACID PRECIPITATION REGION V DETAIL Region V contains areas where SOX and NOX emission densities are among the highest in the nation. Ohio has the largest total annual S02 emission rate of any state. Sulfur dioxide emission patterns on the source map are based on data obtained by Brookhaven National Laboratory. According to the Great Lakes Science Advisory Board, all parts of the Great Lakes watershed are receiving precipitation which contains 5 to 40 times more acid than precipitation under natural conditions (pH 5.7). This conclusion (and corresponding map) is based on data collected during 1977 by the Canadian Network for Sampling Precipitation (CANSAP). This network operates 50-75 stations, 25-30 of which are located in the Great Lakes Basin. The stations monitor pH of bulk precipitation. The map was constructed using average annual pH values. Emissions of precursors (SOX, NOX) are expected to remain high in Region V between 1975 and 2000. Region V is projected to have the highest regional SOX emissions, and the second highest regional emissions of NOX in 2000. Precursor emission projections are from the Strategic Environmental Assessment System, High Growth Scenario. Monitoring the composition of precipitation is a facet of EPA's Acid Rain Research Program. Several monitoring networks are active in Region V, including: - Atmospheric Pollutants Loading Study - National Atmospheric Deposition Project (NADP) - World Meterorological Organization (WHO), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion (NOAA), and EPA network - Multi-State Atmospheric Power Production Pollution Study (MAP3S) 82 ------- The Acid Rain Research Program at EPA's Environmental Research Laboratory at Duluth, Min- nesota is designed to assess acid deposition rates and effects in Precambrian bedrock areas of the northern Great Lakes states. The major objective of the program is to provide proto- cols for determining the susceptible resources and their tolerances to atmospheric deposi- tion. These protocols will be suitable for assisting in decision making on power plant siting, control of existing sources, and establishment of regulatory standards. EPA's Duluth lab is now monitoring the pH of lakes in Northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Studies have shown that about three-fourths of the lakes sampled in the Great Lakes watershed are susceptible or potentially susceptible to acidification using the calcite saturation index as an approximate classification scheme. Several other acid rain studies are underway in the Great Lakes Region: - Argonne National Laboratory is monitoring and evaluating the effects of acid rain and dry deposition on the Great Lakes. EPA's Laboratory at Duluth is studying how toxic elements released from soils and sediments affect aquatic ecosystems. - An EPA project is planned to sample air masses from the Ohio Valley to determine how pol- lutants accumulate and change as the air moves east. 83 ------- Environmental Policy Dilemmas Future energy choices will have implications for environmental quality Energy Demand Fuel Substitution Synthetic Fuels ------- ENERGY ISSUES IN REGION V HIGHLIGHTS This series of slides presents information on trends in energy demand, environmental impli- cations of fuel substitution, and projected use of synthetic.fuels in Region V. The photograph on the right shows the HYGAS pilot plant located in Chicago, Illinois. This was the world's first large-scale facility to produce pipeline-quality gas from coal. The HYGAS process involves hydrogasification of coal to produce methane, which is eventually de- livered at pipeline pressure. The process itself, as well as the clean-burning product gas, ideally have minimal effects on the environmental surroundings. A commercial plant design based on the HYGAS process is being prepared. 85 ------- Energy Demand by Consumption Sector Region V 1975 2000 Transportation 26% Residential 13% Commercial 12% Total = 12 Quads Total = 17 Quads Energy Demand by Fuel Type Region V 1975 2000 Electricity 12% Gas 32% Electricity 23% Total = 12 Quads Total = 17 Quads 86 ------- HIGHLIGHTS End-use demand for energy in Region V is projected to increase about 40 percent between 1975 and 2000. The corresponding national increase is 60 percent. Region V is already a highly industrialized, heavily populated area and significant economic or population growth is not anticipated during this period. While in 1975 energy demand in Region V represented about 23 percent of national energy demand, in 2000, it is projected that this region will account for 20 percent of the national total. In Region V the transportation sector consumes the largest proportion of energy, both in 1975 and 2000. The demand for electricity is projected to increase by 50 percent in Region V during the pro- jection period. This is the largest increase of any sector. By 2000, 23 percent of total regional demand is projected to be met by electricity. This growth is partially due to decreasing use of gas in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The increased demand for fuel in residential and commercial sectors is expected to be met largely by electric power generation. Oil is the primary fuel consumed to meet non-electric end-use demand in Region V, both in 1975 (43 percent) and 2000 (45 percent). Gas also supplies a substantial portion of the de- mand, although its proportion declines from 32 percent in 1975 to 20 percent in 2000. These two primary fuels are produced in small quantities within the region and must therefore be imported. By 2000, approximately 40 percent of the non-electric energy consumed in Region V will be imported into the region. Although large reserves of coal exist in Region V, coal consumption satisfied only 13 per- cent of non-electric energy demand in 1975, and is projected to satisfy about 11 percent in 2000. Coal is the major fuel used by utilities to produce electricity in Region V throughout the projection period, providing over 70 percent of the fuel supply. Nuclear generation of elec- tricity increases from 17 to 28 percent of total fuel supply between 1975 and 2000. Gas and oil account for less than 10 percent of fuel supplied to utilities. CAVEATS Energy demand is defined as end-use by the consuming sectors. Electricity cannot be readily disaggregated by consuming sector, (residential, commercial, industrial) using the current SEAS system. 87 ------- ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE DETAIL National end-use energy demand in 1975 was estimated to be 53 quads. This demand is projected to increase to 85 quads by 2000. Region V demand increases from 12 to 17 quads between 1975 and 2000. In 1975, oil was the primary fuel consumed in Region V. The transportation sector was the largest consumer. By ZOOO, oil is expected to continue as the primary end-use fuel, provid- ing over 45 percent of end-use demand. The transportation sector would continue as the major consumer of oil; however, the industrial sector would increase its use of oil five-fold. (Energy demand by fuel type and consuming sector is presented in Appendix C.) Regional energy demand by the residential sector is projected to decrease slightly by 2000. This is due primarily to a gradual substitution of electricity for gas, oil, and coal for space heating and cooling. Commercial energy demand is projected to increase by one-third in Region V between 1975 and 2000. An increase in energy demand of 0.5 quads by the asphalt industry accounts for this increase. While Region V industrial combustion demand is projected to increase by nearly 50 percent by 2000, this is less than half the projected national increase. The use of natural gas declines by almost 25 percent in Region V, but oil and coal combustion more than offsets this decline and increases by 150 percent. Other industrial (industrial feedstocks of oil and gas, coking coal) demand does not change between 1975 and 2000. The consumption of natural gas is projected to decline by 15 percent between 1975 and 2000 in Region V. Decreases are projected in the residential, commercial, industrial and utility sectors. Nuclear generation in Region Vis projected to increase four-fold by 2000. Nuclear plants are projected to produce over 27 percent of electricity in the region by 2000. 88 ------- Coal use, excluding utility coal combustion, is projected to increase by 15 percent in Region V by 2000. However, its contribution to total regional demand decreases from 13 percent to 11 percent. Substantial growth in electricity generation is projected in Region Vfrom 1.4 quads in 1975 to 3.8 quads in 2000. Part of this increase will be due to reduced demand by the residential sector for primary fuels such as coal, oil and gas. Residential energy use is expected to gradually shift from these fuels to electricity for heating and cooling. Electric utilities rely heavily on coal as the primary combustion fuel. In 1975 coal combus- tion provided nearly 75 percent of electricity generation in Region V. In 2000, the proportion decreases slightly to 71 percent because of a large increase in the amount of nuclear generation. Although Region V is a coal exporter, nearly 50 percent of energy consumed in the region is imported. Some gas is imported from Canada. Oil, gas and uranium are imported from other regions. By 2000, the amount of imported energy should be moderately lower, due to the re- duced use of gas by industrial combustors. Residential consumption of oil and gas should also be lower in 2000 due to a gradual shift to electricity (mainly coal-generated elec- tricity) and a slight amount of solar energy use. Utility plans for phasing out gas and oil-fired utilities or adding nuclear and coal utili- ties are subject to change due to the regulatory and economic environment. In Region V, only a small portion of electrical generation in 1975 was supplied by oil and gas combustors. 89 ------- Air Pollutant Emissions Under Alternative Fuel Mix Assumptions Region V Fraction of 1975 Emissions 1.5 1975 Emissions 2000 Emissions with Fuel Switching ' 2000 Emissions with 197S Fuel Mix 1975 2000 Nitrogen Oxides Coal Synthetic Fuel Production in 2000 2 10 Energy Production in1015Btu's National Production Region V Production Higri-Btu Low-Btu Coal Gasification Gasification Liquefaction 90 ------- UTILITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION AIR EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS HIGHLIGHTS Nationally, the fuel switching scenario assumes a substantial substitution of coal and nuclear fuels for oil and gas by 2000. In most regions, oil and gas were the primary fuels used by utilities and industry in 1975. However, in Region V, coal was already the primary fuel source for utilities, and the secondary fuel source for industrial combustors. There- fore, the fuel switching scenario is expected to have a minor effect on fuel use (and emis- sions) in Region V. Net emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX in 2000 are projected to be comparable in the 1975 fuel mix scenario and the fuel switching scenario in Region V. Emissions from electric utilities and industrial combustors are affected by fuel mix assumptions, however, they offset each other. Under the fuel switching scenario, air pollutant emissions from utilities are lower than they would be under the 1975 fuel mix scenario. However, emissions from industrial combustion are higher under the fuel switching scenario, offsetting any decreases achieved by utilities. COAL SYNTHETIC FUEL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS By 2000, approximately 20 percent of national coal synthetic liquid and gaseous fuel is pro- jected to be produced in Pvegion V. The region is a likely area for synthetic fuel develop- ment because it has both abundant coal resources and markets for the fuels. Under the high growth scenario assumptions about half of the synthetic fuel would be produced by liquefaction processes in Region V. Low-Btu gasifiers would provide about one third of production. Four full-scale low-Btu gasifiers and one high-Btu demonstration facility are presently in operation in Region V. Because the amount of coal used for producing synthetic fuels is projected to be small (less than 15 percent of both national and regional coal supply after cleaning and transport), the effect on air pollutant emissions is expected to be minor for both the nation and Region V. CAVEATS Low-Btu gasification includes both low-Btu gas (120-180 Btu/scf) and medium-Btu gas (250-350 Btu/scf). High-Btu gas (1000 Btu/scf) can be mixed with natural gas in the pipeline. Fuel use reflects assumed full implementation of coal conversion features of ESECA. (Note: ESECA has expired, but legislated coal conversion is continuing under the 1978 Fuel Use Act.) 91 ------- UTILITY AND INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS UNDER ALTERNATIVE FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS REGION V DETAIL Net emissions of particulates, SOX and NOX from utilities in 2000 are projected to be higher under the 1975 fuel mix scenario than under the fuel switching scenario. The 1975 fuel mix scenario assumes heavy reliance by utilities on coal. In the fuel switching sce- nario, proportionately less coal use and more nuclear fuel use is assumed than in the 1975 fuel mix scenario. Nuclear fuel use generates much less particulates, SOX and NOX than does coal combustion. Air pollutant emissions from industrial combustion in 2000 are projected to be greater under the fuel switching scenario than under the 1975 fuel mix scenario. The former scenario as- sumes decreased contribution of gas by 2000, and an increase in use of coal and oil for com- bustion, (in 2000, gas would be used for over 65 percent of all industrial combustion in the 1975 fuel mix scenario, but for only 30 percent of combustion in the fuel switching sce- nario.) Because coal is not as clean as gas as a fuel, emissions are projected to be higher under a scenario that emphasizes coal use. Net emissions of particulates in 2000 are projected to be 4 percent higher under the fuel switching scenario than under the 1975 fuel mix scenario. Industrial emissions from oil and coal combustion under the fuel switching scenario more than offset the increased emissions from utilities projected under the fuel mix scenario. No scenario differences are projected for SOX emissions. Emission reductions achieved by either utilities or industrial combustion under one scenario are offset by increased emissions from the other source. NOX emissions are projected to be almost 10 percent higher in the 1975 fuel mix scenario than in the fuel switching scenario. Because the 1975 fuel mix scenario assumes more coal combustion, NOX emissions will be higher. NOX emissions are assumed to be uncontrolled. 92 ------- Region V would not have to import as much energy in 2000 under a 1975 fuel mix scenario than under a fuel switching scenario. The situation in Region V is unlike that of the nation as a whole. In Region V the 1975 fuel mix scenario assumes that a higher percentage of total energy supply will be coal than does the fuel switching scenario. The fuel switching sce- nario assumes that nearly 30 percent of regional supply will be uranium by 2000. This fuel is not mined in Region V and therefore must be imported. Coal is assumed to make up over 60 percent of regional energy supply under the 1975 fuel mix scenario. Because enough coal would be mined to meet demand in the region, less fuel would have to be imported into the region in 2000. Much sharper contrasts in emissions between scenarios are expected in Region VI and other areas which do not depend heavily on natural gas and oil for industrial combustion and elec- tricity generation. 93 ------- COAL SYNTHETIC FUEL PRODUCTION REGION V DETAIL Nationally, over 4 quads of energy are projected to be produced from coal synthetic fuels in 2000. Eighteen percent, or 0.8 quads of this energy will be produced in Region V. The combination of available coal resources and proximity to industrial markets, make Region V an attractive area for siting coal synthetic fuel facilities. Coal liquefaction pilot plants are currently operating in the U.S., although not in Region V. A major liquefaction product will be gasoline to be used by automobiles. By the late 1980's, commercial scale liquefaction facilities should be operational, both nationally and in Region V. Low- and medium-Btu gas will be used primarily by industry and utilities for process heat. Large facilities may be constructed which will provide energy for multiple industrial users. Utility applications include introducing the low- or medium-Btu gas into a combined cycle process. High-Btu gas can be used as a substitute for natural gas. It can be delivered in a gas pipe- line and used by residential and commercial sectors in addition to industrial and utility ap- plications. It also can be transported long distances. However, it is more expensive to produce high-Btu gas than low- or medium-Btu gas. Other DOE forecasting models beside SEAS, including FOSSIL2 and the Midterm Energy Fore- casting System (MEFS), were consulted in determining proportional demand for each synthetic fuel type. Regional siting of synthetic fuel facilities is based on both economic and environmental con- siderations. 94 ------- SYNTHETIC FUEL FACILITIES IN REGION V Low-Btu Gasification Medium-Btu Gasification High-Btu Gasification Planned Gasification Plants Location Carey, Ohio Ashtabula, Ohio Saginaw, Michigan Duluth, Minnesota Wood River, Illinois Granite City, Illinois Hammond, Indiana Chicago, Illinois East St. Louis, Illinois Toledo, Ohio Noble County, Ohio Perry County, Ohio Size 3.4 x 109 Btu/day 720 x 106 Btu/day 36 x 106 Btu/day 1.44 x 109 Btu/day 12.5 x 109 Btu/day 4.5 x 109 Btu/day 100-200 x 109 Btu/day 1.5 x 10 Btu/day Status Operating Operating Operating Operating Construction Development Development Operating Source: DOE, Office of Resource Applications, June 1980. 95 ------- Region V Summary Air, Water Pollutants Decrease. Solid and Hazardous Waste Generation Increases. Major PollutersUtilities, Transportation, Municipal Treatment Facilities, Primary Metals, Machinery, Chemicals. Emissions of Acid Rain Precursors (NOX, SOX) Will Remain High. Existing Hazardous Waste Sites and Other Latent Problems Will Demand Major EPA Attention for Years to Come. Major Industrial Zones Region V NOTE: These zones Include such Industries as the chemicals, primary metals, and fabricated metals products sectors (SIC codes 28, 33 and 34 respectively). 96 ------- REGION V SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS Of the air and water pollutants projected, significant increases would occur only for NOX and dissolved solids between 1975 and 2000. These increases, are attributed to growth in use of coal for electric power generation and industrial combustion. Control technologies for NOX and dissolved solids are assumed to be limited. Annual hazardous waste generation is expected to double between 1975 and 2000. A large por- tion of national production of certain chemicals occurs in Region V. Many of the chemicals are toxic and are classified as priority pollutants under the Clean Water Act. Significant increases in the acidity of precipitation have been reported in Region V. Emis- sions of acid rain precursors (NOX, SOX) are expected to remain high throughout the pro- jection period. Emissions in Region V could contribute to acid rain problems in nearby regions of the U.S. and Canada. While the briefing has focused on future trends in environmental emissions, long-term impacts of past industrial practices cannot be ignored. Important industries in Region V whose past practices will greatly influence future environmental quality include primary metals produc- tion, fabricated metal products, and chemicals production. Past and continuing releases of heavy metals, acids, and persistent chemicals from these industries are of major concern. 97 ------- REGION V SUMMARY DETAIL Emissions of NOX are projected to increase by 15 percent due to growth in electrical power generation and industrial combustion. Emissions of all other air pollutants are projected to remain relatively constant or decline. Compliance by utilities and boilers with SIP, NSPS and revised NSPS standards reduces particulate and SOX emissions. Compliance by mobile sources with emissions regulations decreases HC and CO emissions. Discharges of dissolved solids are projected to increase by about 65 percent due to coal- fired electric utilities. Discharges of all other point-source water pollutants are projected to decline due to compliance by industries and municipal sources with the effluent limitations guidelines of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, as amended. Generation of solid waste which results from pollution control is expected to increase as air and water pollutant emission regulations become more stringent. Nationally, hazardous waste generation is expected to double between 1975 and 2000. Some of this generation is likely to occur in Region V since a large portion of national production of certain chemicals occurs in the region. The Great Lakes Basin is receiving rain which is five to forty times normal acidity (pH 5.7). Many areas within the basin are susceptible to acid precipitation because the soils have poor buffering capacity. Trends in emissions of acid rain precursors give an indication of future pH trends. NOX emissions are expected to increase by 15 percent in Region V between 1975 and 2000. SOX emissions are expected to decline by 30 percent in the region during this time period. Despite the decline in SOX emissions, Region V is projected to have the highest regional SOX emissions. NOX emissions are projected to be the second highest, regionally. 98 ------- Incidents such as Love Canal have shown that protecting human health and the quality of the environment requires more than simply control of future pollutant discharges. Past industry practices may be important contributors to future environmental problems. Region V has historically been a center for primary metals production and chemicals production. Of particular interest in Region V are: iron, steel, zinc, and other nonferrous metals chemicals - fabricated metals products These industries are important both from the viewpoint of the quantity of production in Region V (See Table) and the hazard associated with the industry products. Releases of numerous toxic metals are associated with primary metals manufacture and fabricated metal products: - arsenic - chromium - cadmium - lead - mercury The chemicals industry has released quantities of various persistent substances many of which are dangerous: - nylon - chromates - arsenic - organochlorine insecticides (DDT, aldrin/dieldrin) Toxic substances releases are also associated with the fabricated metal products industry (essentially the electroplating industry). 99 ------- - chromium - iron - zinc cyanide Areas of concern for these industries include almost all.of the major industrial centers in Region V Ch ic ago - Detroit Indianapolis - Minneapolis/St. Paul Each industry is rather evenly distributed among these industrial centers. 100 ------- INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY IN REGION V Industry Iron and Steel Copper Lead Zinc Aluminum Other Primary Nonferrous Other Nonferrous Rolling & Drawing Nonferrous Wire Drawing Nonferrous Forging & Casting TOTAL Primary Metals SIC (1967) 331, 332, 3391, 3399 3331, 334, 3351, 3362 3332 3333 3334, 3352, 3361 3339 3356 3357 3369, 3392 33 Percent of 1975 National Production in Region Va' 46 25 5 10 24 9 38 19 52 37 Industrial Chemicals Fertilizers Pesticides & Agricultural Chemicals Misc. Chemical Products Plastic Materials & Resins Synthetic Rubber Cellulosic Fibers Noncellulosic Fibers Drugs Cleaning and Toilet Products Paints TOTAL Chemicals 281 2871 2879 286 2821 2822 2823 2824 283 284 285 28 Fabricated Metal Products Metal Cans Metal Barrels, Drums, and Pails Plumbing and Heating Equipment Structural Metal Products Screw Machine Products Metal Stampings Cutlery, Hand Tools, and Hardware Misc. Fabricated Wire Products Valves, Pipe and Fittings Other Fabricated Metal Products (includes electroplating) TOTAL Percent of constant dollar output 3411 3491 3431, 3432, 3433 3441, 3442, 3443, 3444, 3446, 3449 345 3461 3421, 3423, 3425, 3429 3481 3494, 3498 3471, 3479, 3492, 3493 3496, 3497, 3499 34 101 19 16 6 34 15 19 2 33 33 42 23 35 39 41 27 49 63 38 40 35 42 39 ------- APPENDIX A BACKGROUND FOR ANALYSIS A-l ------- BACKGROUND FOR ANALYSIS General Information on Projections Projections derived primarily from the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) model. 25-year forecast period, 1975-2000. High economic growth scenario. Information presented represents general trends based on assumptions rather than specific projections of the future. SEAS data are most complete and current for energy technologies, industrial combustion and industrial processes. o The SEAS analysis is based on pollutant generation projections in the following source categories: - Airstationary and mobile source emissions Pollutant Definitions Gross: Present in raw wastestream; process changes are reflected here. Net: Released to environment. Abated: Removed from raw wastestream; assuming compliance with environmental regulations. Abated pollutants are by definition equal to the difference between gross and net. Primary: Generated as a direct result of the production process. Secondary: Generated as a result of pollution abatement activities. - Waterindustrial and municipal point-source discharges - Solid wastegenerated by control of point-source pollution - Hazardous wastegenerated by industrial activity Contracter support for this effort was provided by The MITRE Corporation/ Metrek Division. A-2 ------- ASSUMPTIONS Energy Assumptions Increase in domestic oil production. Decline in natural gas production in continental U.S. Near tripling of coal production by 2000. Industrial shift from gas to oil, coal and electricity Economic and Demographic Assumptions Assumed GNP (Billions of 1972 Dollars) 1975 1,141 2000 2,735 Annual Growth Rate 3.5% National Population (Millions) 1975 213 Annual Growth Rate 2000 262 0.8% Total U.S. Energy Consumption in Quads 1975 2000 73 124 NOTE: Based on SEAS High Growth Scenario in the Environmental Outlook 1980 report. Assumes full implementation of fuel switching provi- sions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act (ESECA). A-3 ------- Environmental Regulation Assumptions SOURCE AIR: EXISTING SOURCES - Pre-1975 - Conversions to coal under ESECA NEW SOURCES - Post-1975 - Post-1981 Industrial Boilers - Post-1984 Electric Utilities MOBILE SOURCES - Automobiles - Trucks WATER: INDIVIDUAL INDUSTRY AND MUNICIPAL TREATMENT FACILITY LIMITATIONS REGULATION SIP Standards (Full Compliance by 1985) NSPS Revised NSPS Revised NSPS Emissions limits Emissions factors BPT (Full Compliance by 1979) BAT (Full Compliance by 1985) (BCT not assumed) ORIGIN Clean Air Act (CAA) 1970 Amendments to CAA 1977 Amendments to CAA 1977 Amendments to CAA 1977 Amendments to CAA EPA, March 1978 Federal Water Pollution Control Act A-4 ------- APPENDIX B METHOD USED TO DERIVE HAZARDOUS WASTE ESTIMATES B-l ------- APPENDIX METHOD USED TO DERIVE HAZARDOUS WASTE ESTIMATES A two step procedure was used to derive estimates for hazardous waste generation. The first step was to estimate 1975 generation in the Nation for selected industries. The second step was to both backcast and forecast generation for selected years based on the 1975 esti- mates. These procedures are outlined in detail in the following paragraphs. Derivation of 1975 Hazardous Waste Generation Estimates The draft environmental impact statement for Subtitle C of RCRA^ contains hazardous waste generation factors for nineteen industries represented by two-digit SIC codes. These factors are in terms of tons of waste per employee per year. Using employment data from Department of f\ Labor documents^ and these generation factors, estimates of hazardous waste generation by the nineteen industries were calculated for the United States. These industry estimates were then aggregated to form national generation estimates. The following example illustrates this pro- cedure. Ex. SIC Code 28 - Chemicals and Allied Products Generation Factor - 37.17 tons per employee per year Total Employment in SIC 28 in 1975: 1,012,500 Hazardous Waste Generation in SIC 28 in 1975: 37,17 x 1.0125 x 106 = 37.6 x 106 Tons per year ^-Subtitle C, Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, Draft Environmental Impact State- ment.United States Environmental Protection Agency,January 1979.(particularly Chapter 6 and Appendix H.) 2Employment and Earnings, States and Areas 1939-1975 and "Employment and Earnings" reported in Employment and Training Report to the President, 1978. United States Department of Labor. B-2 ------- Derivation of Hazardous Waste Generation Estimates in Selected Other Years Once the 1975 estimates were derived, a suitable indicator of growth in generation has to be determined. The best indicator, theoretically, would be the product output of individual industries. However the data currently available do not support the use of this indicator since, to be useful, projections would have to be made at a more disaggregate level than two- digit SIC code. Employment was also discarded as an indicator since it was felt that employment would be a misleading indicator of economic activity, and hence hazardous waste generation, due to productivity changes that may occur in the future. The indicator used was industry earnings since it was felt that this would be the best available indicator of economic activity at the level of aggregation used. Earnings estimates are available for 1965 through 2000 from OBERS^ by OBERS manufacturing sectors. These sectors were translated directly to the two-digit SIC codes. The trend in earn- ings between the year in question and 1975 was calculated for each SIC code and applied to the 1975 hazardous waste generation for each SIC code to calculate the hazardous waste generation for that year. The individual industry estimates were then aggregated to form national generation esti- mates, both total and by industry. The following example illustrates the method used: Ex. SIC Code 28 - Chemicals and Allied Products Hazardous Waste Generation in 1975: 37.6 x 10" Tons per year Earnings in 1975 SIC Code 28 - OBERS Sector 84500 (Billions of 1967 $): 10.97 Earnings in 2000 SIC Code 28 - OBERS Sector 84500 (Billions of 1967 $): 25.29 Hazardous Waste Generation in 2000: 37.6 x 106 Tons x 25.29 = 86.68 x 106 Tons 10.97 ^Office of Business and Economic Research (OBERS) Department of Commerce. Data tape - BWT. OBERSTAT. V2RO. B-3 ------- Error Potential There is considerable potential for error in these projections. Causes of possible error in the derivation of the generation coefficients is discussed in some detail in the RCRA-EIS cited earlier. Furthermore, the use of earnings as a growth indicator for hazardous waste gen- eration could introduce error since constant dollar earnings are not necessarily linearly re- lated to product output. Also, the coefficients used are national average coefficients and do not account for regional variation or waste generation due to, for example, production process differences. Finally, the forecasts do not account for the hazardous wastes generated in indus- trial wastewater treatment facilities. As mentioned in the discussion of solid wastes, esti- mates of generation of this type of solid waste are not available at this time. Because of this exclusion these projections probably understate generation in the years after 1975. In spite of these difficulties, these projections are a reasonable "first cut" at this problem. The increase in generation of 3.3 percent per year projected in the nation is fairly close to the growth in industrial solid waste generation projected by EPA (about 3 percent per year)." Further, the 1975 national total of 59.6 million tons of hazardous wastes is approxi- mately 16 percent of the 1975 industrial solid waste generation estimated by EPA. This is close to the 10-15 percent range that EPA estimates for hazardous wastes. B-4 ------- APPENDIX C REGION V ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE C-l ------- REGION V ENERGY DEMAND BY CONSUMPTION SECTOR AND FUEL TYPE (QUADS) COAL OIL GAS NUCLEAR SOLAR/OTHER TOTAL 1975 TRANSPORTATION 2000 1975 RESIDENTIAL 2000 1975 COMMERCIAL 2000 1975 INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION 2000 1975 OTHER INDUSTRIAL 2000 1975 ELECTRIC UTILITIES 2000 1975 TOTAL 2000 0 0 A * * .2 .6 1.1 .9 .5 1.1 2.7 2.7 4.6 3.6 4.4 .7 .7 .6 1.1 .2 1.1 .2 .4 .1 * 5.4 7.7 0 0 1.7 1.5 .8 .6 1.5 1.1 A .3 A 0 4.1 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .3 1.1 .3 1.1 0 0 0 .1 0 .1 0 0 0 0 A A 0 .2 3.6 4.4 2.5 2.4 1.4 2.0 2 .3 3.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 3.8 12.5 17.1 * value is less than 0.1 quad. It was not possible to break down Region V electricity demand by consuming sector. C-2 ------- Department Approval :^ MITRF Project Approval: ------- |