Future
Environmental Problems:
An Overview of
Underlying Trends
The MITRE Corporation
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Future
Environmental Problems:
An Overview of Underlying Trends
Marcia L. Wilson
Laura R. Jones
Carol J. Kuhlman
November 1980
MTR-80W355
Sponsor: Environmental Protection Agency
Contract No: EPA 68-01-5064
The MITRE Corporation
Metrek Division
1820 Dolley Madison Boulevard
McLean, Virginia 22102
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ABSTRACT
Recent Environmental Protection Agency studies such as Envi-
ronmental Outlook 1980 have addressed a long list of problems which
may increase in importance in the future. This paper presents an
overview of future trends underlying these problems and proposes an
approach to long-range research planning.
iii
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PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This is one of several documents on environmental trends and
future problems produced to assist the Environmental Protection
Agency's Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS)
in preparing its annual Environmental Outlook report. That report
assists the Agency in its long-range research and development role.
Last year's Environmental Outlook 1980 was an ambitious project,
covering a broad spectrum of issues. This year, studies focus on
selected issues: agriculture, hazardous waste, chemical deposition
and societal trends. This approach was conceived by Dr. Irvin L.
(Jack) White, formerly with the Environmental Protection Agency,
and project guidance was provided by John W. Reuss, OSASS Director.
This paper is a part of the Environmental Outlook 1981 series and
is an overview of future trends with implications for environmental
quality.
MITRE staff members who played central roles in the development
of this study include Brian H. Price, project manager, and Beth L.
Borko, task manager. Carol J. Kuhlman provided production support
and Vivian R. Aubuchon provided editorial support.
iv
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LIST OF FIGURES vi
LIST OF TABLES vii
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
2.0 A FRAMEWORK FOR VIEWING ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS 3
2.1 Approach 3
2.2 Group I Problems 5
2.3 Group II Problems 9
2.4 Group III Problems 12
2.5 Use of the Environmental Problem Framework
for Long-Range Research Planning 16
3.0 AN OVERVIEW OF FUTURE TRENDS 21
3.1 Trends Underlying Group I Problems 21
3.1.1 Carbon Dioxide Buildup 21
3.1.2 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 23
3.1.3 Acid Deposition 24
3.2 Trends Underlying Group II Problems 27
3.2.1 Toxic Substances 27
3.2.2 Pesticides 29
3.2.3 Hazardous Air Pollutants 32
3.2.4 Hazardous Waste 34
3.2.5 Ionizing Radiation 36
3.3 Trends Underlying Group III Problems 38
3.3.1 Nonionizing Radiation 39
3.3.2 Criteria Air Pollutants 39
3.3.3 Point Source Water Pollutants 42
3.3.4 Nonpoint Source Water Pollution 44
3.3.5 Marine Pollution 46
3.3.6 Solid Waste 48
3.3.7 Noise 51
LIST OF ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK STUDIES 53
REFERENCES 57
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Number Page
1 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations,
Range Analysis 22
2 Average pH of Precipitation over the Eastern
United States 25
3 Production of Selected High Volume Organic
Chemicals 28
4 Trends in the Production and Use of Selected
Carcinogenic Substances 33
5 National Trends in Hazardous Waste Generation 35
6 National Trends in Major Air Pollutant
Emissions 41
7 National Trends in Point-Source Water
Pollutant Discharges 43
8 Trends in Ocean Dumping, Excluding Dredged
Material 47
9 Trends in Generation of Oil Shale Wastes 50
VI
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LIST OF TABLES
Table Number Page
— i t-J
1 Group I Environmental Problems and Trends 7
2 Group II Environmental Problems and Trends 11
3 Group III Environmental Problems and Trends 13
4 Pesticide Use in The United States 30
5 Trends in Radiation Dose to U.S. Population 37
from Diagnostic Radiology
vii
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
Our environmental future will be shaped largely by human ac-
tivities. Trends in the major factors that influence environmental
quality—population and economic growth, technological change, pub-
lic policy and attitudes—offer useful clues to future environmental
conditions. Some new environmental concerns have already emerged.
For instance, acid deposition has had substantial adverse effects on
the environment, and it could remain a serious problem in the future.
Others, such as the closely related problem of toxic metals deposi-
tion, are poorly defined and their potential impacts are not under-
stood. With both of these problems, the proper response should be
to direct governmental efforts toward increased understanding and the
development of practicable solutions.
To this end, the Environmental Protection Agency has addressed
emerging environmental problems in recent documents such as Envi-
ronmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980),
regional environmental outlook briefings and background studies per-
formed for the Agency's research planning committees. (A complete
list of these studies can be found at the end of this paper.) The
primary purpose of this paper is to present an overview of future
trends that have implications for environmental quality. It also
presents a framework for viewing environmental problems from a re-
search planning standpoint.
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2.0 A FRAMEWORK FOR VIEWING ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
2.1 Approach
In recent environmental outlook studies, the Environmental Pro-
tection Agency (EPA) has addressed a wide range of long-term problems
that stem from many causes and impact the environment in a multitude
of ways. The current level of understanding of these problems varies
as does the complexity of the solutions. To deal with this diver-
sity, a sample of problems was chosen and organized in a way that
could aid research planning.
A set of variables was selected for evaluating environmental
problems—-variables that can also be used to define appropriate re-
search strategies, since fundamentally similar problems may benefit
from similar research approaches. The variables are geographic
scale, time frame, magnitude of impact, level of scientific under-
standing of causes and effects, and complexity of the solution.
From a long list of problems addressed in environmental out-
look studies, 15 were selected and evaluated on the basis of the
variables. The 15 problems fell naturally into three groups. One
group can be characterized as long-term and potentially global in
scale. The level of technical understanding of the problems in this
group is generally poor, and possible countermeasures seem to be com-
plex, requiring more than simply developing new control technologies.
An example is the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the earth's at-
mosphere as a by-product of combustion, a problem with truly global
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environmental implications and no simple solution. An appropriate
research strategy for this type of problem would be aimed at clari-
fying causes and identifying fruitful mitigation strategies.
A second, well publicized group of problems such as hazardous
wastes and toxic substances are potentially dangerous and are still
not well understood. We are already grappling with these problems,
and projections indicate that they will become even more important
in the future. An appropriate research strategy for these problems
would require developing methods for dealing with hazards created by
past practices (e.g. inadequate disposal of hazardous wastes), and
investigating methods to decrease production and control future re-
leases of harmful substances.
Problems in the third group are relatively well understood.
They degrade environmental quality, but affect human health less
severely than those in the second group. Problems such as emissions
of criteria air pollutants belong in this category. Past research
has concentrated on these problems, and our level of understanding
is respectable. We have developed control technologies to prevent
or mitigate adverse impacts. An appropriate research strategy for
this type of problem could assess the extent to which current control
methods will be adequate in the future.
For each group of problems, two types of research should be
distinguished: short-range and long-range. Each has its own purpose
and is equally important. As its name suggests, short-range research
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should be designed to respond to immediate needs. This research is
likely to be an extension of present knowledge about a particular
problem, and tends, therefore, to be framed in current thinking.
Long-range research, on the other hand, examines the fundamental
causes of problems and seeks long-term solutions to them.
The distinction between short- and long-range research is illus-
trated by the following example. The problem of increasing emissions
of criteria air pollutants has been dealt with by developing control
technologies to reduce emissions. Short-range research might be con-
cerned with developing improved control technologies. However, this
post-generation control approach does not treat the source of the
problem. Long-range research is necessary to actually solve the prob-
lem. Such research must focus on alternative approaches to reducing
pollutant emissions. Possibilities include developing new processes
which generate less pollution and thereby eliminate the need for con-
trol technologies. Throughout the discussions that follow, we have
attempted to distinguish between short- and long-range research
needs.
Sections 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4 of this paper describe each of the
three groups of problems in detail, showing how the group distinction
can guide the allocation of research emphasis by EPA.
2.2 Group I Problems
The problems in the first group include carbon dioxide buildup
in the atmosphere, stratospheric ozone depletion, and chemical
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deposition. These three problems are described briefly in Table 1,
and in more detail in Section 3.1 of this paper. Group I problems
have the following characteristics:
o Geographic scale is global;
o Time frame is long-term;
o Knowledge of cause and effects is limited;
o Impacts could be severe and irreversible; and
o Possible solutions are complex.
Group I problems deserve special attention in long-range re-
search planning. Global climatic changes, which could result from
increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (C02) concentrations or de-
pleted stratospheric ozone, could have severe impacts on agriculture,
regional hydrology, and energy policy. Depletion of ozone could lead
to a higher worldwide risk of cancer from increased exposure to ultra-
violet radiation. Because these impacts—global climatic change and
increased exposure to nonionizing radiation—are potentially so dev-
astating and irreversible, we are compelled to develop and support a
strong research program to produce solutions that are adequate in the
long-term.
The research strategy for Group I problems should focus on in-
creasing our understanding of fundamental causes and effects. Much
scientific controversy surrounds problems such as CC>2 buildup, ozone
depletion, and chemical deposition. For example, the causes of
rising atmospheric CC>2 levels have not been definitively determined.
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TABLE 1
GROUP I ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AND TRENDS
Problem
Projected Trend
Potential Effects
Carbon Dioxide
Stratospheric Ozone
Chemical Deposition
(Acid Rain)
Increases in atmospheric
carbon dioxide concen-
trations—projections
range from almost no
increase to a sixfold
increase over the next
100 years.
Ozone depletion of about
15 percent if the release
of chlorofluorocarbons
remains at the 1977 rate.
U.S. emissions of nitrogen
oxides (a precursor of
acid rain) increase 40
percent between 1975 and
2000.
U.S. emissions of sulfur
dioxide (a precursor of
acid rain) remain constant
between 1975 and 2000.
Global temperature change
—profound effects on
agriculture, regional
hydrology, and energy
policy.
Increased exposure of the
biosphere to ultraviolet
radiation.
Increased area affected
by acid rain—damage to
aquatic and terrestrial
ecosystems and materials.
Increased area affected by
acid rain—damage to
aquatic and terrestrial
ecosystems and materials.
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Releases from fossil fuel combustion are thought to be the primary
cause: however, widespread deforestation is probably a contributing
factor. Further, the potential impacts of increased C02 concentra-
tions are debatable. It is widely believed that increased CC>2 in
the atmosphere enhances the "greenhouse effect," which results in
rising global temperatures. However, compounding factors (such as
particulate emissions accompanying fossil fuel burning that may
somewhat offset C02 induced global warming) complicate projections.
Thus, additional basic research is needed to determine cause and
effect relationships. Impact studies are also required. Decision
makers must be able to judge the consequences of such problems in
order to justify and implement appropriate control strategies within
national and international arenas.
The solutions to problems such as C02 buildup, ozone depletion,
and chemical deposition are complicated. For example, significantly
reducing future C02 emissions and the precursors of acid deposition
would be technically difficult and enormously costly. The major
source of emissions of these pollutants in the future is projected
to be fossil fuel combustion. Reducing emissions would require de-
velopment of better control technologies, reducing our dependence
on fossil fuels, or both. Developing adequate control technologies
for a pollutant such as C02 does not appear to be easy, and, in
any case, stringent control of C02 emissions and acid deposition
precursors may not be economically feasible. Reducing our use of
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fossil fuels, especially coal, would conflict sharply with current
U.S. energy policy. Of course, reducing U.S. emissions alone would
not be a solution to these global problems. Projections indicate
that the future U.S. contribution to worldwide air pollution will
decline as a percentage of the whole since industrialization of less
developed countries will result in increased air pollutant emissions
from those areas.
Solutions to Group I problems obviously will require the coop-
eration of energy and environmental policy makers, industry, and the
public within the United States and throughout the world. Since
these solutions will undoubtedly require tradeoffs and compromises
among competing interests, it is essential that the scientific facts
be clearly and widely understood.
A complete list of environmental problems which have the char-
acteristics of those in Group I would by no means be limited to C02
buildup, ozone depletion, and chemical deposition. Many other issues
could be added to the list such as worldwide species extinction and
land management, including preservation of natural habitats and
coastal zone areas. Undoubtedly, there are other long-term global
problems we do not yet even recognize.
2.3 Group II Problems
Problems such as toxic substances, hazardous waste, and ionizing
radiation form a second group. Problems in this group, which EPA
has addressed in recent environmental outlook studies, are shown in
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Table 2. A discussion of trends underlying these problems appears in
Section 3.2 of this paper. Group II problems share the following
characteristics:
o They present acute human health threats;
o While regulations have been established to deal with some of
these problems, they may not be adequate, or do not pertain
to problems created by past practices; and
o Solutions may require process changes or materials substitu-
tion.
Research strategies for Group II problems must be two-pronged,
dealing with the immediate health threats (e.g., cleanup of hazard-
ous waste sites), while developing approaches to prevent future harm.
Because these problems have the potential to affect human
health, they require immediate attention. In some cases, this need
has been recognized and action has been taken. For example, through
its hazardous waste site management program, the Environmental Pro-
tection Agency has identified several thousand sites in the United
States that may pose a threat to human health or the environment due
to the presence of hazardous wastes. Although cleanup of selected
sites has begun, cost is a major barrier. In 1980, Congress enacted
legislation establishing a "superfund" to provide money to contain
existing uncontrolled hazardous waste disposal sites. Harmful sub-
stances are also being dealt with in Federal regulations. For ex-
ample, regulations exist to control emissions of hazardous air pol-
lutants and to reduce occupational exposure to toxicants. In some
cases these necessary actions have been taken with less than full
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TABLE 2
GROUP II ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AND TRENDS
Problem
Projected Trend 1975-2000
Possible Effects
Toxic Substances
Pesticides
Hazardous Air
Pollutants
Hazardous Waste
Ionizing Radiation
Strong growth in production
of benzene and several
toxic organics such as
polyvinyl chloride.
Decline in atmospheric
residuals of lead.
Decline in levels of
heavy metals (cadmium,
lead, mercury) dis-
solved in water.
Little change in level
of pesticide use. Sub-
stitution of organo-
phosphates for chlo-
rinated insecticides.
Increase in production
and use of carcinogenic
substances such as
radionuclides, poly-
cyclic organic matter,
and asbestos.
Identification of abandoned
disposal sites that
present a health hazard.
Doubling in annual
generation.
Increase in total person-
rem dose from medical
diagnostic procedures.
Increased nuclear waste
generation.
Increased potential for
exposure (primarily
occupational) and asso-
ciated health effects.
Reduced potential for
exposure.
Decreasing organochlorine
residues in food and
human tissues. Increase
in toxic effects asso-
ciated with organophos-
pha te s.
Increased potential for
exposure and associated
health effects.
Increased potential for
exposure and associated
health effects.
Increased potential for
exposure.
Increased potential for
exposure.
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knowledge of specific causes and effects. Consequently, considerable
investment in research is still required.
Long-range research into Group II problems should have a preven-
tive rather than a reactive orientation, leaving correction of imme-
diate hazards to short-term intensive research and agency action.
Such research should be aimed primarily at reducing production of
hazardous and toxic substances rather than simply developing control
technologies or management practices such as disposal methods. Cur-
rent trends suggest that the generation of hazardous substances will
at least double between 1975 and 2000. This increase in waste gen-
eration will create disposal problems regardless of the techniques
developed. It makes better sense in the long run to find ways to
curtail the increase in waste generation through process changes or
materials substitution. Given adequate information, EPA can exert
control on Group II problems at their source, either directly,
through its regulatory mandate, or indirectly, through cooperation
with other agencies of government.
2.4 Group III Problems
Problems such as emissions of air and water pollutants, solid
waste generation, and noise form a third group of problems. Listed
in Table 3, Group III problems share the following characteristics:
o Geographic scale is local;
o Impacts can range from slight to severe, but are generally
reversible; and
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TABLE 3
GROUP III ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AND TRENDS
Problem
Projected Trend 1975-2000
Potential Effects
Nonionizing
Radiation
Criteria Air
Pollutants (Not
Including Lead)
Conventional Point -
Source Water
Pollutants
Nonpoint Source
Water Pollution
Marine Pollution
Increase in number of
sources.
Increases in generation of
all pollutants. Constant
or declining emissions of
all pollutants except
nitrogen oxides.
Increases in generation of
all pollutants. Constant
or declining emissions of
all pollutants except dis-
solved s'olids.
Slight (15 to 20 percent)
increase in urban runoff,
increases in agricultural
runoff.
Decrease in ocean dumping
and discharge.
Increase in pollution
from oil spills.
Some evidence for behav-
ioral effects at low
exposure levels. Heat-
induced effects at high
exposure levels
Improved local air
quality.
Improved local water
quality.
Degradation of water
quality.
Reduced pollution of
marine and coastal
ecosystems.
Damage to marine and
coastal ecosystems.
Solid Waste
Moderate (25 to 30 percent) Increased disposal
increases in generation of requirements.
municipal and industrial
solid wastes.
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TABLE 3 (Concluded)
Problem
Projected Trend 1975-2000
Potential Effects
Noise
Doubling in generation of
mining and related
wastes.
Significant increases in
generation of solid
wastes from pollution
control.
Rise in community back-
ground noise levels.
Increased land dis-
turbance and dis-
posal requirements.
Increased disposal re-
quirements. Possible
hazardous waste prob-
lem.
May affect health,
learning, and work
efficiency.
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o Some mitigating measures are already available for dealing
with them.
The problems in Group III are not new. We have been faced with
them for some time and have developed methods to deal with them in
the near term. For example, scrubbers can remove sulfur dioxide from
some stack gases and industrial wastewater can be treated to remove
suspended solids.
Projections for 1975 to 2000 indicate that the generation of air
and water pollutants will increase as the economy grows. However,
actual emissions of most pollutants are projected to decline over
this period, as compliance with increasingly stringent environmental
regulations is achieved.
Emissions projections may be encouraging, but the post-
generation control approach to reducing pollutant emissions is only
a stopgap measure. Pollutant control devices generally have limited
effectiveness within an acceptable cost range; if production contin-
ues to increase, emissions will also increase despite controls. For
some major pollutants, such as sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides, we
stand at or near the point of reevaluation of appropriate regulatory
and control approaches. As in the case of Group II problems, basic
changes in production processes may be needed in the long run. In
addition, sludges from abated air and water pollutants present a
different, but no less difficult set of pollution problems.
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A logical research approach to Group III problems should be
directed toward developing methods to break the link between in-
creased economic activity and increased pollution generation.
The problems shown in Table 3 include those that EPA has ad-
dressed in recent environmental outlook studies, although the list
is not by any means exhaustive. Similar problems can be classed
with these and could profit from the same basic research approaches.
2.5 Use of the Environmental Problem Framework for Long-Range
Research Planning
Consideration of long-term trends is now an integral part of EPA
research planning, and is a particular responsibility of the Office
of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS). The environ-
mental outlook reports and related studies sponsored by OSASS over
the past two years have identified a long list of important trends,
many of which are discussed in this paper.
Dealing with this list—and finding a systematic way to identify
other problems that may belong on a list of environmental problems—
is a continuing methodological challenge. To develop this capabil-
ity, the following is needed:
1. A consistent way to distinguish short-range from long-range
research needs.
2. A method to separate problems that are best suited to a
long-range research approach from problems that may demand
short-range research priority.
3. A means of identifying other environmental problems that
may develop in future years, or that may exist unrecognized
today.
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Meeting these needs would help distinguish long-range research
from short-range research and help in the process of foreseeing and
forestalling serious environmental problems.
This paper has addressed these needs in a preliminary way.
Long-range research was distinguished from immediate, short-range
research in Section 2.1. Long-range research attacks the fundamental
causes of a problem, with the goal of defining basic social, eco-
nomic, legal, or technological changes that can exert control at the
problem's source. Short-range research typically seeks technical
fixes for problems that result from current practices, or effective
methods to mitigate the impacts of past practices such as uncon-
trolled hazardous waste dumping.
This paper has used the distinction between short- and long-
range research to separate the list of long-term problems into three
groups. This categorization points to an appropriate distribution
of long-range research emphases. Specifically, Group I problems are
most appropriately dealt with through long-range research; Group II
problems require immediate short-range research attention, with a
large measure of long-range research to guide the transition from
stopgap measures to permanent solutions; Group III problems seem to
demand the least long-range research emphasis, since adequate con-
trols appear to be in place. The function of long-range research
in this case is to determine whether today's adequate controls will
still be adequate after several decades of economic growth and tech-
nological change.
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Finally, the shared characteristics of problems classed in each
of these categories suggest other, similar problems that may require
long-range research. For example, a common characteristic of the
acid precipitation and carbon dioxide problems—their intimate con-
nection with U.S. energy policy—suggests that the decisions we make
in the next few decades about the kind and quantity of fuel we burn
may have other environmental ramifications, such as release of toxic
and hazardous pollutants, creation of enormous amounts of solid
waste, and physical and biological damage to the American countryside
through increased coal mining.
As in the case of chemical deposition, energy policy decisions
can also have indirect, but no less important, environmental impli-
cations. The U.S. energy policy that seeks to reduce our dependence
on foreign sources of oil promises increased coal combustion, which
has negative implications for the environment. The same policy is
leading by degrees to the full decontrol of all domestic oil prices.
Major changes which may affect the environment are also occurring
in industry. We have recently seen the organic chemicals industry,
a major source of hazardous wastes, start to shift from petroleum-
based feedstocks toward coal-based feedstocks, and to alter its.
processes where necessary to accommodate the feedstock change. The
hazardous waste implications of such shifts are just now coming under
investigation.
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Still more indirect ramifications of energy policy decisions
could be distinguished through long-range research. For example,
the increasing cost of oil-based fuels to American industry is
certain to induce a variety of process changes over the next few
decades. What will be the nature of such shifts among the most
polluting industries? Will the result be to diminish or increase
environmental hazards?
The approach described above provides a foundation for devel-
oping an agenda for long-range research that places emphasis where
most appropriate, and that complements and guides the short-range
research program already in place within the Office of Research and
Development.
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3.0 AN OVERVIEW OF FUTURE TRENDS
3.1 Trends Underlying Group I Problems
Trends underlying selected Group I problems—carbon dioxide
buildup, stratospheric ozone depletion, and acid deposition—are
summarized in this section. The trend projections presented here are
taken from Environmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency 1980).
3.1.1 Carbon Dioxide Buildup
The carbon dioxide content of the earth's atmosphere has in-
creased by about 15 percent in the last 100 years. Projections of
C02 concentrations over the next century vary widely—ranging from
almost no change to nearly a sixfold increase as shown in Figure 1
(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980). Increased atmospheric
C02 is a concern because it could lead to global temperature in-
creases.
Fossil fuel combustion will likely be the largest future con-
tributor to increased levels of atmospheric CC^. The current world-
wide rate of emissions is 5 to 6 gigatons (GT) of carbon per year.
This rate could reach 46 GT in the year 2030 under a high energy sup-
ply scenario, and 12 GT in a low energy scenario (U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency 1980). Under both scenarios, the contribution
from combustion of coal would increase to 40 to 60 percent of total
CC>2 released by fossil fuel combustion by the year 2030. The U.S.
contribution to world (X>2 release is projected to decline from the
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6.0
£ 5.0
(B
_J
"ns
2 4.0
c
'CD
CL
3.0
c
g
o
2 2.0
u_
1.0
I
I
I
High Growth
Pessimistic
High Growth
Optimistic
Low Growth
Pessimistic
Low Growth
Optimistic
1980 2000 2020, 2040 2060
Year
Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980.
Note:
texf reflects inconsistency in source
FIGURE 1
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS
RANGE ANALYSIS
22
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present 28 percent to only 8 percent. This changing percentage
reflects a slowdown in the growth of U.S. energy use in comparison to
the rest of the world, especially developing countries.
Increased concentrations of C02 in the atmosphere could pro-
foundly and irreversibly alter global climate. Regional climate
shifts could reduce the capacity of major world food supply regions
to feed mankind, leading to disruption of international food markets,
food shortages, or rationing. Other possible effects include changes
in regional hydrology and rising sea levels due to polar ice melt.
Coastal development, recreation, agriculture, water intensive energy
and industrial facilities, and resident populations could be affected
on an almost unimaginable scale.
3.1.2 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
Small concentrations of ozone in the stratosphere provide vital
protection for the entire biosphere, including man, from the sun's
ultraviolet radiation. Concern has arisen that man's activities,
primarily releases of chlorofluorocarbon gases, are contributing to
the destruction of ozone.
Trends in chlorofluorocarbon releases and other factors affect-
ing ozone can be used to gauge trends in stratospheric ozone deple-
tion. Despite efforts by the United States and member countries of
the European Economic Community to reduce chlorofluorocarbon emis-
sions (Brennan 1979, National Academy of Sciences 1979, Gribben
1979), existing concentrations of these compounds will continue to
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deplete ozone for decades. In fact, even if chlorofluorocarbon
emissions stopped today, it could take 50 years before natural pro-
cesses would remove even half the stratospheric chlorofluorocarbons
(Panofsky 1979).
A recent study by the National Academy of Sciences (1979)
concluded that the release of chlorofluorocarbons at the current
(1977) rate will ultimately result in a 16.5 percent decrease in
ozone concentrations. Additional confirmation of this trend comes
from British studies which concluded that depletions could range
from 11 to 16 percent (Morgan 1980). Increased incidence of
ultraviolet radiation (from ozone depletion) could result in reduced
agricultural productivity, increased incidence of cancer in humans
and other animals, and adverse effects on some marine life forms.
Climatic effects such as global warming are also predicted.
3.1.3 Acid Deposition
Acid deposition is a major environmental problem in both North
America and Europe. In the United States, acid deposition was first
documented in the Northeast. In the last 20 years, the area measur-
ably affected by acid deposition (pH of precipitation less than 5.6)
has spread to include most states east of the Mississippi River.
This trend is illustrated in Figure 2.
Emission trends for the two main contributors to acid deposi-
tion, sulfur oxides (SOX) and nitrogen oxides (NOX), give some
indication of future patterns. Nationally, little change in SOX
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1955-1956
1972-1973
5.60
4.70
Source: Adapted from Likens 1976.
FIGURE2
AVERAGE pH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES
25
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emissions is projected over the next 20 years. Nitrogen oxides emis-
sions, however, are projected to increase by about 40 percent (U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency 1980). Although sulfates were the
main contributors to precipitation acidity in the northeastern United
States during the late 1950s, nitrates have become increasingly im-
portant contributors. Thus, given the trends in precursor emissions,
the problem of acid deposition can be expected to continue if not
worsen.
A growing body of evidence suggests that acid deposition may
have substantial adverse effects on the environment: acidification
of lakes, rivers, and ground waters, with resultant damage to the
aquatic ecosystem; acidification and demineralization of soils; re-
duction of forest productivity; damage to crops; and deterioration
of materials. Declines in fish populations have been documented in
lakes in North America and Europe where acidity has increased. Be-
sides harming aquatic life, acidification may also influence heavy
metal concentrations in lakes.
A closely related concern is the deposition of toxic metals
and organic compounds on land and water. The prevalence and signifi-
cance of this deposition are barely under investigation at this time.
Studies performed in support of Environmental Outlook 1981 (Keitz
1980, Keitz et al. 1980, Fitter 1980) address this issue.
26
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3.2 Trends Underlying Group II Problems
Trends underlying five Group II problems—toxic substances,
pesticides, hazardous air pollutants, hazardous waste, and ionizing
radiation—are summarized in this section. The trend projections
presented here are taken from Environmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency 1980), Hazardous Air Pollutants Trends
for Research Outlook 1981 (Krupnak 1980), and Pesticide Trends for
Research Outlook 1981 (Bodden 1980).
3.2.1 Toxic Substances
Many toxic materials are emitted during the manufacture and use
of chemicals. Trends in the potential for human exposure to toxic
chemicals have been studied by examining production trends in the
chemicals industry. Two categories of toxic substances are discussed
here: organic chemicals and heavy metals.
Historical data and projected trends in production of benzene
(a carcinogen) and several organic chemicals closely tied to the pro-
duction of the polymer polyvinyl chloride (a toxicant and carcinogen)
are shown in Figure 3. Production of these chemicals has shown.
strong growth in the past and this pattern is projected to continue
over the next 20 years (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980).
Regulatory efforts are underway to reduce the potential for exposure,
however. EPA promulgated vinyl chloride standards under Section 112
of the Clean Air Act (PL 88-206), and has prepared health effects and
27
-------
35
30
25
-------
exposure assessments on benzene. Regulating industrial exposure is
not as difficult as regulating exposure of the general population.
Discharges of some heavy metals into air and water are expected
to decline over the next 20 years as a result of regulatory action by
EPA. Mercury has been designated as a hazardous air pollutant under
Section 112 of the Clean Air Act, and as a priority pollutant under
Section 307 of the Clean Water Act. Lead is classified as a criteria
air pollutant under Section 108 of the Clean Air Act. Emissions of
lead to air have declined dramatically with the elimination of tetra-
ethyl lead in fuels for new domestic automobiles.
The environmental outlook for toxic substances will remain
incomplete as well as unclear until improved toxicity testing and
risk assessment methods have been developed for the hazards posed by
thousands of chemicals yet to be tested.
3.2.2 Pesticides*
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported record highs
for both production and sales of pesticides in the United States in
1978 (Fowler 1980). Total production in 1978 for synthetic organic
pesticides was over 1.4 billion pounds and sales reached $3.34 bil-
lion. Total domestic pesticide use is projected to increase roughly
5 percent between 1978 and 1990 as shown in Table 4.
*In this context, the term pesticides refers to insecticides,
fungicides, rodenticides, and herbicides as provided for under
the Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act (PL 92-516).
29
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TABLE 4
PESTICIDE USE IN THE UNITED STATES
(Millions of Pounds of Active Ingredient)
Type
1978 1985 1990
Farm Domestic Farm Domestic Farm Domestic
Herbicides
Insecticides
Fungicides
Total
430
266
42
738
580
450
105
1,135
482
207
49
738
651
350
125
1,126
511
215
53
779
690
363
137
1,190
Source: Adapted from Bodden 1980.
30
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About 60 percent of national herbicide use was on farms in 1978.
The USDA estimates that herbicide use on farms will increase about
20 percent between 1978 and 1990 (Fowler 1980, Fox 1978). If higher
energy prices encourage minimum tillage methods for crop production,
greater quantities of herbicides may be required for weed control.
About two-thirds of herbicide use on farms is expected to be related
to corn and soybean production by 1990.
Insecticide use has increased at an annual rate of about 1 per-
cent (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980). This trend re-
flects stable acreages in crops and emphasis upon lower insecticide
usage or controlled application. The market share held by organo-
phosphates appears to be increasing, while that of chlorinated pes-
ticides is decreasing. Restrictions on chlorinated pesticides (DDT,
Aldrin/Dieldrin, and 2,4-D) have been largely responsible for this
shift. The USDA projects that agricultural insecticide use will de-
crease slightly between 1978 and 1990 (Bodden 1980). The potential
adverse effects on humans, animals, and nontarget species will remain
a large and complex problem.
Development of biological controls is an attractive alternative
to using chemicals for some pests. These programs are not suffi-
ciently developed, however, to cause a decrease in chemical pesticide
use in the near future.
31
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3.2.3 Hazardous Air Pollutants
Hazardous air pollutants are generated by activities such as the
synthesis of chemical materials, the mining and processing of raw
materials, and the manufacture, use, and diposal of chemical prod-
ucts. Future trends in emissions of hazardous air pollutants can be
inferred from trends in these activities.
Trends in several activity levels suggest an increased potential
for exposure to hazardous air pollutants in the future as shown in
Figure 4 (Krupnak 1980). The incineration of solid waste by munic-
ipal and dedicated facilities is expected to double between 1975 and
2000. The combustion of solid waste is a major source of polycyclic
organic matter, which is carcinogenic. The amount of uranium mined
and processed may increase by seven to eight times, heightening the
potential for exposure to radionuclides. Production of formaldehyde
in the United States in 2000 is expected to be 3.6 times the 1975
level. The amount of asbestos mined in the nation is expected to
increase about 70 percent over this time period (Krupnak 1980).
The control and abatement of hazardous air pollutant emissions
is a major EPA mandate. So far, EPA has identified 632 substances
as potentially hazardous air pollutants and has set National Emission
Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) for mercury, asbes-
tos, beryllium, and vinyl chloride. Benzene and radionuclides have
recently been declared hazardous air pollutants and are progressing
32
-------
Solid Waste Incinerated
Uranium Mined and Processed
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
•i. .....*
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Formaldehyde Produced
10
= 5
15,000
3
CT
LU
3 10,000
m
'o
c
o
= 5,000
....t
1975 1980
1985 1990
Year
1995 2000
Asbestos Mined
O
.c
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Source: Adapted from Krupnak 1980.
50
40
30
20
10
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
FIGURE4
TRENDS IN THE PRODUCTION AND USE OF
SELECTED CARCINOGENIC SUBSTANCES
33
-------
through the regulatory decision making process. Currently, airborne
carcinogens are being given top priority.
3.2.4 Hazardous Waste
Annual hazardous waste generation is expected to more than
double between 1975 and 2000 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
1980). The rate of growth is expected to be highest in the last 15
years of this period. The chemicals and allied products industry
is by far the largest source of hazardous waste. In 1975, this in-
dustry accounted for more than 50 percent of the total. This trend
is expected to continue as shown in Figure 5.
According to estimates, only about 10 percent of hazardous waste
generated in the past has been disposed of properly (Maugh 1979).
Inadequate waste disposal has already had significant adverse human
health impacts in some areas. Preliminary health statistics of
residents of the Love Canal area in Niagara Falls, New York, show
higher than normal incidences of miscarriage, birth defects, and
liver damage. EPA has identified thousands of other sites which may
present threats to human health due to the presence of hazardous
wastes. Cleanup of some of these sites has begun; however, cost is a
major barrier.
In the future, hazardous waste management will be governed by
Subtitle C of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) of
1979 (PL 94-580). This subtitle of the act provides for the identi-
fication of hazardous wastes, institution of a system to track wastes
34
-------
to
2.5
2.0
c
o
0)
c
CD
u
to
r-
cn
c
g
o
CO
1.0
N\\x
i'i!i|i!
oo ;«
w&
i.-.-V.-V.\
Other
Paper and Allied Products
Primary Metals
Machinery (Except Electrical)
Chemicals and Allied Products
^
m&
1965
Source: Adapted from Wilson el al. 1980.
1970
1975
Year
1985
'o o~o
000
•° °?°od
2000
FIGURES
NATIONAL TRENDS IN HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION
-------
through their life cycle, and establishment of a permit system.
Final regulations are being promulgated now. Obtaining suitable
sites for disposal is expected to present the most difficult, long-
term problem. Many communities do not want hazardous waste disposal
facilities within their boundaries. Restrictions on locating facil-
ities in areas that present a danger to the integrity of the facility
(e.g. active fault zones) or in which the facility presents a danger
to the environment (e.g., wetlands) will add to the problem of siting
facilities.
Some opportunities for reducing future hazardous waste genera-
tion by one segment of the organic chemicals industry are discussed
in another study (Watson et al. 1980) performed in support of Envi-
ronmental Outlook 1981.
3.2.5 Ionizing Radiation
Medical diagnostic procedures are the largest artificial source
of exposure to ionizing radiation for the general public. As shown
in Table 5, population dose from diagnostic radiology is projected
to increase by about 25 percent between 1975 and 2000 (U.S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency 1980). However, efforts by the medical
community to reduce exposure through elimination of unnecessary ex-
aminations and reduction in dose per examination may mitigate this
trend. The American Cancer Society has, for example, recommended
eliminating chest x-rays for the detection of lung cancer.
36
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TABLE 5
TRENDS IN RADIATION DOSE TO U.S. POPULATION
FROM DIAGNOSTIC RADIOLOGY
Population Genetically Significant
Year (Millions) Dose (Million Person-rems)
1960 183 11.1
1964 192 11.7
1970 205 14.7
1975 213 15.3
1985 234 16.8
2000 262 18.8
Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency 1980.
37
-------
Nuclear energy activities provide a small part of the radiation
exposure of the general population, in normal operations. A major
environmental concern in nuclear energy use is radioactive waste dis-
posal. Future reliance on nuclear energy is unclear partly because
of safety factors. Therefore, the amount of waste which will be
generated is also uncertain.
Ionizing radiation can have several types of effects on the
population, including direct health effects and effects on genetics,
growth and development and the environment. The consequences of
whole body acute exposure to high doses of radiation are known;
however, the health effects of low-level radiation are the subject
of scientific controversy. Effects from low-level exposure do not
appear immediately and may take years to develop. The genetic ef-
fects of ionizing radiation are gene mutations and chromosome aber-
rations. The growth and development of a fetus or juvenile may be
affected by exposure to high levels of ionizing radiation, which can
induce microcephaly (reduced head circumference) and mental retarda-
tion.
3.3 Trends Underlying Group III Problems
Trends underlying seven Group III problems—nonionizing ra-
diation, criteria air pollutants, point source water pollutants,
nonpoint source water pollution, marine pollution, solid waste,
and noise—are summarized in this section. The trend projections
38
-------
presented here are taken from Environmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, 1980).
3.3.1 Nonionizing Radiation
Microwaves, radiowaves, and electromagnetic fields at power
line frequencies, as well as other forms of nonionizing radiation,
are widely present in our environment. Since World War II, the use
of nonionizing radiation has increased tremendously for a variety of
purposes, including communication systems, navigation, broadcasting,
radar, industrial processes, consumer products, and medical appli-
cations. Sales trends in the electronics industry show about a 15
percent annual increase and this trend is expected to continue.
The most immediate and obvious effects upon the human body from
exposure to microwave and radiowave radiation may be induced heating.
At frequencies between 30 MHz and 300 MHz, radiation can penetrate
the skin and raise the temperature of subsurface tissues, membranes,
and organs. Exposure to low levels of nonionizing radiation is
suspected to cause behavioral effects and is under investigation.
3.3.2 Criteria Air Pollutants
The generation of criteria air pollutants (particulates, nitro-
gen oxides, sulfur oxides, hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide) is
projected to increase between 1975 and 2000 under high economic
growth conditions (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980).
*Lead and photochemical oxidants are criteria air pollutants; how-
ever they are not included in the projections.
39
-------
However, assuming full compliance with existing pollution control
regulations, actual emissions of some pollutants, such as particu-
lates, hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO), are expected to
be reduced significantly. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX) are
projected to increase and sulfur oxides (SOX) emissions are pro-
jected to remain relatively constant over this time period. These
trends are shown in Figure 6.
Coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial boilers is
expected to more than double between 1975 and 2000. NOX emissions
from stationary combustion sources are expected to increase drama-
tically because current technology for their control is limited.
However, these increases are expected to be partially offset by
declining automobile emissions. Despite a large projected increase
in fossil fuel combustion, emissions of SOX are projected to remain
relatively constant as a result of application of flue gas desulfur-
ization techniques.
Another important source of air pollutant emissions is transpor-
tation. This source accounted for more than one-half of HC emissions
in 1975 and about 90 percent of CO emissions. Although the amount
of transportation activity is projected to increase between 1975 and
2000, emissions of NOX, HC, and CO from mobile sources are expected
to decline substantially as a result of compliance with pollution
abatement requirements.
40
-------
3.0
0>
z
lf>
o
c
o
'•5 2.0
1.0
19.8
7.7
Abated
Emissions
Other
Transportation
Industrial Combustion
Electric Utilities
Construction Materials
i,i i i i ii;:i:as:::::i:a
i1!' Vi1!1
.l| 1.1.1 jllli I ad
00
1975 2000
Particulates
Source: Adapted from Wilson et a/. 1980.
1975
2000
1975
2000
Sulfur
Oxides
Nitrogen
Oxides
1975 2000
Hydrocarbons
1975
2000
Carbon
Monoxide
FIGURES
NATIONAL TRENDS IN MAJOR AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
-------
The construction materials industry (which includes the glass,
cement, sand and gravel, and similar industries) is the major direct
source of particulate emissions. Despite increased levels of produc-
tion in this industry, actual emissions of particulates are projected
to decline by about 30 percent by 2000 as a result of air pollution
control efforts.
3.3.3 Point Source Water Pollutants
Generation of six water pollutants (biochemical oxygen demand,
suspended solids, dissolved solids, nitrogen, phosphorus, and oil
and grease) by point sources is projected to increase between 1975
and 2000 under high economic growth conditions (U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency 1980). Compliance by municipal wastewater treat-
ment facilities and industries with the Federal Water Pollution Con-
trol Act Amendments of 1972 (PL 92-500) is expected to reduce actual
discharges of all these pollutants except dissolved solids and
nitrogen. These trends are shown in Figure 7.
Municipal wastewater treatment facilities are the primary source
of discharges of biochemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, nitro-
gen, and phosphorus. Increased generation of pollutants from this
source is attributed to population growth and greater centralization
of sewage treatment. However, with the exception of nitrogen, dis-
charges of pollutants from these facilities are projected to decline
Nitrogen and phosphorus refer to total nitrogen and total phos-
phorus as defined in EPA testing protocols.
42
-------
CO
1975 2000
Biochemical
Oxygen Demand
Source: Adapted from Jones et at. 1980.
1975
2000
Suspended
Solids
1975 2000
Dissolved
Solids
1975 2000
Nitrogen
1975 2000
Phosphorus
1975 2000
Oil & Grease
FIGURE/
NATIONAL TRENDS IN POINT SOURCE
WATER POLLUTANT DISCHARGES
-------
significantly by 2000. Total discharges of nitrogen are projected to
increase by about 10 percent.
Energy-related industries are also important sources of water
pollutants. Electric utilities are major sources of dissolved sol-
ids. Discharges of dissolved solids are projected to double between
1975 and 2000 as a result of increased electrical generation by coal-
and nuclear-fueled utilities (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
1980). No control of dissolved solids from utilities is expected.
Although the major generator of oil and grease is the meat prod-
ucts industry, a high level of control of this pollutant is expected.
The major source of discharges is petroleum refining and storage (in-
cluding transporation). An overall decline in total oil and grease
discharges of 30 percent is projected between 1975 and 2000 (U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency 1980).
3.3.4 Nonpoint Source Water Pollution
Water pollution from nonpoint sources is estimated to affect
about 90 percent of the drainage basins in the United States. Pol-
lutant discharges from nonpoint sources greatly exceed the discharges
from point sources. Two major sources of nonpoint pollution are
agricultural runoff and urban runoff.
Agricultural activities are the most widespread cause of non-
point source pollution in the United States, affecting two-thirds of
all drainage basins. In the absence of improved and more widespread
use of conservation practices, national annual discharges of most
44
-------
agricultural pollutants (including sediment, nutrients, and pesti-
cides) are projected to increase between 1975 and 2000 (U.S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency 1980). The distribution of agricultural
pollutant discharges varies among regions, mainly because of differ-
ences in crop production and precipitation patterns. The Southeast,
Great Lakes and Central regions generate more than three-fourths of
the pollutant releases from agricultural land.
Urban rainfall runoff has been cited as a cause of degraded
water quality in populous areas and includes almost all types of
pollutants. Suspended sediments and toxic substances (particularly
heavy metals) cause the most harm. Discharges from urban sources
(including combined sewer overflow, storm sewered runoff, and un-
sewered stormwater runoff) in the absence of control are projected to
increase by about 20 percent between 1975 and 2000 (U.S. Environmen-
tal Protection Agency 1980). This increase is attributed to popula-
tion growth. The regional distribution of urban pollutant discharges
varies because of population density, types of urban land use, pre-
cipitation patterns, and areas served by different types of sewer
systems. The Great Lakes Region is expected to generate about 25
percent of the national urban runoff pollutant load in 2000. The New
York-New Jersey and Southeast regions are also expected to generate
large amounts.
45
-------
3.3.5 Marine Pollution
Pollution of the marine environment from ocean dumping and
discharge is expected to decrease significantly during the next 20
years. However, marine pollution due to oil spills is expected to
increase during this period.
Three major categories of waste materials are presently being
dumped into U.S. coastal waters: sewage sludge, industrial waste,
and dredged materials. The quantity of these materials that was
dumped reached a peak in 1973 and 1974, and has declined as shown
in Figure 8. This declining trend is expected to continue over the
next 20 years due to the anticipated effectiveness of environmental
regulations such as the Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries
Act of 1972 (PL 92-532).*
The projected increase in pollution from oil spills is primarily
due to increases in offshore oil and gas production and transporta-
tion of oil by tankers. The rate of oil spills from these sources is
not expected to vary significantly from the historical trend; rather
it is the increase in activity and therefore increased opportunities
for accidents that lead to a forecast of increased marine pollution
from oil spills.
The environmental effects of ocean discharges include the wash-
ing ashore of garbage and grease, and the introduction of toxic
Unless new disposal methods or uses are discovered and/or required
for dredged materials, the practice of dumping these materials will
probably continue at present levels.
46
-------
12
10
c
o
o 6
tn
I 4
1950
1960
1980
1990
1970
Year
Note: Quantities from 1949 to 1968 are five year averages. Projections are based on regulatory
schedules, see text.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980.
FIGURES
TRENDS IN OCEAN DUMPING, EXCLUDING DREDGED MATERIAL
47
-------
organic chemicals and heavy metals into the marine environment. Oil
spills have both immediate and long-term effects. Although the most
obvious effects are oily beaches and devastated fisheries, the sub-
lethal effects may be more important, and are currently receiving
research emphasis.
3.3.6 Solid Waste
The United States generates some 4 billion tons of solid waste
every year, according to EPA's Office of Solid Waste. Industrial
and municipal wastes contribute about 10 percent, agricultural wastes
about 10 percent, and mining wastes about 75 percent.
Moderate increases in industrial and municipal generation of
solid waste are projected for the 1975 to 1990 period, assuming
continuation of past and current trends in recycling, materials sub-
stitution, and economic growth (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
1980). Industrial solid waste is primarily ferrous metals or wood;
municipal solid waste is primarily paper, yard, or food wastes. The
majority of these wastes are disposed of on land, however, numerous
options are either available or under study to aid in municipal and
industrial solid waste reduction and recycling as alternatives to
land disposal.
Annual generation of mining-related wastes is expected to at
least double by 2000 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980).
Aside from coal, which generates more than all other mining indus-
tries combined, the four major industry sources are copper, iron ore,
48
-------
uranium, and phosphate rock. Currently, mining wastes are disposed
of on adjacent land or by backfilling, practices which have the po-
tential to result in adverse effects on the environment and health.
Oil shale mining and retorting could generate as much as 1.5
billion tons of solid waste in 2000 under a scenario which assumes
a high level of oil shale exploitation as shown in Figure 9 (U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency 1980). Annual mining-related solid
waste generation would increase by 25 percent between 1975 and 2000.
The disposal of oil shale-related wastes is a problem because of the
potential for leaching of toxic compounds.
Secondary solid wastes are pollutants removed from gaseous and
liquid wastestreams and include noncombustible solid waste, indus-
trial sludges, and municipal sewage sludge. The generation of these
wastes is expected to increase dramatically over the next several
decades as air and water pollution control measures become more ef-
fective (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980). Present dis-
posal methods generally involve some form of treatment and eventual
removal to a holding pond or landfill. However, the leachate from
disposal sites of many of these wastes may contain toxic and other-
wise dangerous compounds and elements such as arsenic, cadmium, and
lead. Some of these waste materials may be declared hazardous under
the provisions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act.
49
-------
1,000i
900
800
TJ
Q)
0>
c
-------
3.3.7 Noise
Community noise levels are rising: millions of Americans are now
subjected to daily noise levels beyond those deemed consistent with
protection of the public health and welfare. Assuming continued popu-
lation and economic growth, the number of noise generating activities
will also increase. However, with adequate regulation and improved
noise control technologies, such increases need not translate into
higher noise levels.
Environmental noise can be classified as transportation noise
(air traffic and surface traffic), occupational or industrial noise,
and community and household background noise. In each area, the po-
tential exists for decreasing noise exposure in the future. Present
aircraft noise certification rules and those proposed by EPA for
1980 and 1985 are expected to reduce exposure. In the workplace, new
technologies and work practices, fuller compliance with current Occu-
pational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) noise exposure stan-
dards, and possible adoption of more stringent standards are expected
to decrease exposure. Existing and proposed EPA regulations should
have a moderating influence on a trend toward using heavier, noisier
equipment at construction sites.
Considerable research has been done on nonauditory health ef-
fects of noise; however, to date no human illness other than hearing
loss is known to be directly caused by noise. Nevertheless, studies
consistently and clearly associate noise with physiological and
51
-------
psychological stress diseases such as heart disease and high blood
pressure. Noise may affect a child's ability to learn and an adult's
work efficiency. It can disrupt sleep and possibly degrade health
and performance generally.
52
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LIST OF ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK STUDIES
Environmental Outlook 1980 Studies
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1980. Environmental Out-
look 1980. EPA-600/8-80-003. Washington, B.C.: U.S. Government
Printing Office.
Regional Environmental Outlook Studies
The MITRE Corporation. 1980. Environmental Outlook 1975-2000,
Region II. WP-80W00505.
Jones, L.R., Wilson, M.L., Wolfinger, T.F., and McGarry, W.D.
1980. Environmental Outlook 1975-2000, Region III. MTR-80W218.
McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
The MITRE Corporation. 1979. Trends in Releases of Major Envi-
ronmental Pollutants, 1975-2000, Region IV.
Wilson, M.L., Jones, L.R., Wolfinger, T.F., and McGarry, W.D.
1980. Environmental Outlook 1975-2000, Region V. MTR-80W207.
McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
The MITRE Corporation. 1980. Environmental Outlook 1975-2000,
Region VI. WP-80W00503.
Research Outlook 1981 Studies
Bodden, M.D. 1980. Pesticide Trends for Research Outlook 1981.
Draft, WP-80W00623. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
Bodden, M.D. 1980. Drinking Water Trends for Research Outlook
1981. Draft, WP-80W00658. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
Bodden, M.D. 1980. Nonioriizing Radiation Trends for Research
Outlook 1981. Draft, WP-80W00708. McLean, Va.: The MITRE
Corporation.
Hershaft, A. 1980. Municipal Wastewater Trends for Research
Outlook 1981. Draft, WP-80W00645. McLean, Va.: The MITRE
Corporation.
Hershaft, A. 1980. Water Quality Trends for Research Outlook
1981. Draft, WP-80W00747. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
53
-------
Krupnak, L. 1980. Oxidant Trends for Research Outlook 1981.
Draft, WP-80W00616. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
Krupnak, L. 1980. Sulfur Oxides and Particulate Matter Trends
for Research Outlook 1981. Draft, WP-80W00664. McLean, Va.:
The MITRE Corporation.
Krupnak, L. 1980. Hazardous Air Pollutants Trends for Research
Outlook 1981. Draft, WP-80W00713. McLean, Va.: The MITRE
Corporation.
Schultz, D.A. 1980. Solid Waste Trends for Research Outlook
1981. Draft, WP-80W00614. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
Schultz, D.A. 1980. Mobile Source Trends for Research Outlook
1981. Draft, WP-80W00697. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
Schultz, D.A. 1980. Energy Trends for Research Outlook 1981.
Draft, WP-80W00707. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
Watson, J.W. 1980. Industrial Wastewater Trends for Research
Outlook 1981. Draft, WP-80W00622.McLean, Va.:The MITRE
Corporation.
Watson, J.W. 1980. Chemical Testing and Assessment Trends for
Research Outlook 1981~Draft, WP-80W00746.McLean, Va.:The
MITRE Corporation.
Watson, J.W., Goldfarb, A.S., and Aubuchon, V.R. 1980. Waste
Generation in the Organic Chemicals Industry: A Future Perspec-
tive.MTR-80W229.McLean, Va.:The MITRE Corporation.
Conner, R.K., Travis, R.K., and Trudeau, P.N. 1980. Selected
Trends in American Agriculture; A Future Perspective. MTR-
80W228. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
Sassaman, J.F., Singley, J.E., and Travis, R.K. 1980. Demo-
graphic Changes and Environmental Risk; A Future Perspective.
MTR-80W298. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
Wilson, M.L., Jones, L.R., and Kuhlman, C.J. 1980. Future En-
vironmental Problems; An Overview of Underlying Trends. MTR-
80W288.McLean, Va.:The MITRE Corporation.
Keitz, E.L., Slaughter, J. , and Wisniewski, J. 1980. Wet and
Dry Deposition of Atmospheric Pollutants. WP-80W00391.McLean,
Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
54
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Keitz, E.L. 1980. Atmospheric Cycles of Cadmium and Lead Chemi-
cals. WP-80W00825. McLean, Va.:The MITRE Corporation.
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Department Approval:
MITRE Project Approval:
U*.
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