Demographic Change and Environmental Risk: A Future Perspective The MITRE Corporation ------- Demographic Change and Environmental Risk: A Future Perspective Jan F. Sassaman JohnE. Singley Richard K. Travis January 1981 MTR-80W298 Sponsor: Environmental Protection Agency Contract No.: EPA-68-01-5064 The MITRE Corporation Metrek Division 1820 Dolley Madison Boulevard McLean, Virginia 22102 ------- ABSTRACT This paper presents a conceptual framework linking change in population characteristics in the United States with changes in vulnerability to pollutants and in tendencies for persons to come in contact with pollutants. The relationship between changes in population distribution and pollution levels is also explored, as is the relationship between the probability that a pollutant will cause harm and human vulnerability to and contact with a pollutant. Demographic trends at the national level and for three regions are described with respect to demographic variables that may influence vulnerability to environmental hazards. Finally, two methods for analyzing the relationship between demographic variables and the probability of harm from environmental pollutants at the regional level are demonstrated, and implications for further research are drawn. ill ------- PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This is one of several documents on environmental trends and future problems produced to support the Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS) in preparing its annual Environmental Outlook report. That report assists the Agency in its long-range research and development role. Last year's Environmental Outlook 1980 was an ambitious project, covering a broad spectrum of issues. This year, studies like this one focus on selected issues, dealing with them in greater depth. This approach was conceived by Dr. Irvin L. (Jack) White, formerly with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and project guidance was provided by John W. Reuss, OSASS director. MITRE staff members who played central roles in the development of this study included: Brian Price, program manager; Beth Borko, project manager; Vivian Aubuchon, editorial support; and Carol Kulhman, production support. iv ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES vi LIST OF TABLES vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xi 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 A New Approach 3 1.2 Outlook on Jeopardy 9 2.0 ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY 11 2.1 Introduction 11 2.2 Natural Selection and Cultural Evolution 12 2.3 Relationships of Activity, Attitudes and 19 Attributes to Environmental Hazards 2.4 Probability of Harm 26 3.0 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY 31 3.1 Generalized Implications of National 31 Demographic Trends 3.2 Generalized Implications of Regional 35 Demographic Trends 4.0 ENVIRONMENTAL DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS 43 4.1 Air Pollution: An Example of Environmental 44 Demographic Analysis 4.2 Probability of Harm from Air Pollutant Hazards 59 4.3 Conclusion 69 APPENDIX DATA ON POPULATION TRENDS 71 REFERENCES 119 ------- LIST OF FIGURES Figure Number Page 1 Interactions Among Functional Societal 20 Variables and Environmental Jeopardy 2 Census Divisions of the United States 36 3 National Trends in Net Emissions of Major 52 Air Pollutants by Source, 1975 and 2000 4 Federal Regions of the United States 53 A-l Census Regions of the United States 78 VI ------- LIST OF TABLES Table Number Page 1 Selected Studies of Health Effects of 46 Major Air Pollutants 2 Regional Trends in Major Air Pollution 54 Emissions 3 Trends in Net Emissions of Major Air 55 Pollutants for the Nation and Selected Areas 4 Major Assumptions Affecting Projections of 56 Future Levels and Distribution of Air Pollutant Emissions 5 Trends in Air Pollution and Population in 60 the West Central Florida Air Quality Control Region 6 Indices of Air Pollution Inhalation in the 62 West Central Florida AQCR for the Year 2000 7 Air Pollution Projections, Salt Lake 66 County, Utah 8 Estimates of Mortality Due to Particulate 68 Emissions, Salt Lake County, Utah A-l U.S. Population Growth Rate 72 A-2 Components of U.S. Population Growth 73 A-3 Age Composition of the U.S. Population 75 A-4 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates 76 A-5 U.S. Employment by Occupation and Sex 77 A-6 Regional Migration for the U.S. Population 79 A-7 Regional Population and Rate of Growth 80 A-8 U.S. Population by Metropolitan and Non- 82 metropolitan Areas VII ------- LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Table Number Pa§e A-9 Population and Growth by Decade: South 83 Atlantic Division A-10 Components of Population Change by Decade: 85 South Atlantic Division A-ll Projections of Age Composition of Population 87 by Decade: South Atlantic Division A-12 South Atlantic Division Population by 89 Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas A-13 Population, Labor Force and Participation 91 Rate by Sex: South Atlantic Division A-14 Occupation of Employed Persons: South 92 Atlantic Division A-15 Industry of Employed Persons: South 94 Atlantic Division A-16 Population and Growth by Decade: Mountain 96 Division A-17 Components of Population Change by Decade: 98 Mountain Division A-18 Projections of Age Composition of Population 100 by Decade: Mountain Division A-19 Mountain Division Population by Metropolitan 102 and Nonmetropolitan Areas A-20 Population, Labor Force and Participation 104 Rate by Sex: Mountain Division A-21 Occupation of Employed Persons: Mountain 105 Division A-22 Industry of Employed Persons: Mountain 107 Division Vlll ------- LIST OF TABLES (Concluded) Table Number Page A-23 Population and Growth by Decade: Middle 108 Atlantic Division A-24 Components of Population Change by Decade: 110 Middle Atlantic Division A-25 Projections of Age Composition of Population 112 by Decade: Middle Atlantic Division A-26 Middle Atlantic Division Population by 113 Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas A-27 Population, Labor Force and Participation 114 Rate by Sex: Middle Atlantic Division A-28 Occupation of Employed Persons: Middle 116 Atlantic Division A-29 Industry of Employed Persons: Middle 117 Atlantic Division IX ------- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For many societies, cultural change has relied on complex technology that in turn has resulted in widespread discharges of harmful materials. To protect society, government has taken on a regulatory role to control these discharges. Today's environmental regulations are egalitarian in philosophy and application, for the most part setting de minimus standards at the national or state level. Such a regulatory philosophy implies that different areas of the country have a commonality of needs, despite the fact that different geographic areas can have varied populations with different needs. It can be argued that such differences need not be considered in the regulatory arena or that it would be too costly and confusing to consider them. However, this paper presents a case for investigating a new approach to environmental regulation, based on the needs of different geographic areas. Further, it asserts that future environ- mental regulations should be fine-tuned to account for regional dif- ferences in population attributes (such as greater numbers of elderly in retirement in Florida), in human activities (such as the potential for occupational contact with dangerous substances in industrial sectors) or in regional social values. XI ------- Environmental Jeopardy Man, like the rest of the biological world, is subject to the laws of nature and must respond to changes in his environment. Mod- ern man has responded to his environment in a manner unique in the animal kingdom. He has developed the technological means to control his environment in order to temporarily halt the natural process of environmental change to a greater extent than any other animal spe- cies. The protection from the vicissitudes of the environment afforded modern man by his technology has brought with it a proba- bility of harm from the effluvia of that technology—a probability, or jeopardy, that has become more pervasive as technology has increased in complexity. The effect of environmental pollution on human health is a function of contact with environmental hazards and of individual and population attributes. One can only be affected by a harmful agent such as an environmental pollutant if one comes in contact with it and is vulnerable to it. Vulnerability involves physiological con- ditions that predispose an individual to harm. These physiological conditions are often directly related to age, sex, genetic variables and personal habits (such as smoking or drinking). An individual's tendency to come in contact with a harmful agent in turn is related to location (with respect to the distribution of the agent of harm) and occupation. For a group, probability of harm is related to the number of persons and their collective contacts and vulnerabilities. XII ------- The perception of an "acceptable" probability of harm is influenced by past experience, beliefs, attitudes and values. Moreover, an individual is likely to accept a higher probability of harm if contact with a harmful agent is voluntary rather than involuntary. Demographic Trends and Environmental Jeopardy Changing population patterns in the United States may bring with them important changes in pollution levels, frequency of contact with pollutants, vulnerability and probability of harm. For the nation as a whole, future trends in employment and residence suggest that peo- ple will be working and living in environments and localities in which they will endure less frequent contact with hazards and lower pollution levels than they do today. Workers are choosing relatively safe occupations and the population is shifting from congested north- eastern cities to the less polluted South and West. There is no way of knowing how long these trends will continue, but the authors assume they will extend at least to the year 2000. At the same time, however, projected trends in average population age suggest the like- lihood of increasing vulnerability to harm from some pollutants since the national population is expected, on the average, to grow older. The overall result of general population trends may be a reduced probability of harm for the average individual in the United States, but an increased number of persons succumbing to the effects of pollutants—both because of absolute population growth and increasing vulnerability. Xlll ------- Future trends indicate a growing disparity in the demographic makeup of different regions. This disparity will affect the relative vulnerability and number of persons in contact with hazards in dif- ferent regions. Therefore, some regional populations may face a greater risk of harm from environmental hazards than others. Three census divisions are compared to demonstrate different projections of future demographic patterns. In the South Atlantic Census Division, the national aging trend is exacerbated by continued migration of retirees to southern states. The average age, and thus the vulnerability, of this growing population is increasing. This, coupled with the rising pollution levels likely to accompany popula- tion growth, will add up to a greater probability of harm in the South Atlantic Division. The metropolitan areas of the South Atlantic division are maintaining their proportionate share of the population, with larger numbers of persons coming in contact with increasing pollution and consequent environmental hazards associated with urban and industrialized areas. The Mountain Census Division is composed of a population that is increasing in average age at a slower rate than in the South Atlantic division. The regional population tends to be less urban than the country as a whole, and is expected to experience an increase in both male and female labor force participation rates. For the Mountain division, probability of harm from environmental pollutants seems to be increasing and is likely to get worse, especially as energy xiv ------- resources are developed, spurring the migration of energy- intensive industry to the region, and as pollution and population size increase in growing urban and industrial areas. With an increasing average age, migration from metropolitan areas and a shift in employment toward non-manufacturing industries, environmental and occupational risks appear to be declining in the Middle Atlantic Census Division. People—especially the elderly—are moving out of the division, which should reduce vulnerability to environmental hazards in the Middle Atlantic division. As in the nation as a whole, workers remaining in the region will be in less jeopardy due to safer work environments, advances in pollution control measures and improved medical care that will benefit their generation more than their older predecessors. Environmental Demographic Analysis To illustrate the relationship between population change and change in environmental and occupational jeopardy, the probability of harm associated with projected trends in air emissions is analyzed. The major air pollutants associated with our industrial-metropolitan mode of life have repeatedly been shown to correlate with various adverse health effects. The potential cost to the nation in terms of mortality and morbidity as a result of air pollution can be consider- able. Crocker et al. (1979) estimated that a 60 percent reduction in pollution would result in health benefits equal to $59.1 billion in 1978 dollars. xv ------- Assuming full compliance with existing regulations, only emis- sions of the oxides of sulfur and nitrogen are expected to surpass national 1975 levels by 2000. By the end of the century, ambient levels of particulates and hydrocarbons are expected to rise toward 1975 levels as economic growth counteracts improvements realized in the 1980s through compliance with regulatory requirements. The carbon monoxide level is expected to decline steadily throughout the period. Similar trends in air emissions are anticipated in the Southeast Federal Region. In general, projections of air emissions for the Middle Atlantic Federal Region indicate a trend of relatively more improvement than for the nation as a whole; while worsening conditions are projected for the Mountain Federal Region. However, despite these trends, overall amounts of net emissions will still be greater in the Middle Atlantic region than in the Mountain region by the year 2000. The potential for human contact with certain pollutants in the West Central Florida Air Quality Control Region (AQCR) for the year 2000 was estimated to demonstrate the use of a simple model based on projected proportional changes in the area population (total popu- lation and subpopulations) and in net emissions for the five major pollutants from 1975 to 2000. The analysis is offered merely as an illustration and the reader is cautioned that an absence of adequate data prevented this model from being precise. The elderly subpopu- lation was singled out for analysis here, although other groups could be analyzed in the same fashion. xvi ------- In this AQCR, the subpopulation of persons age 65 and over is expected to more than double between 1975 and 2000. This much larger group of vulnerable elderly persons will face increased emissions of three air pollutants: particulates and oxides of nitrogen and sul- fur. Population growth and higher pollution levels are expected to create a threefold increase in probability of harm from these three pollutants for the elderly between 1975 and 2000. For Salt Lake County, Utah, a second type of analysis was per- formed based on elasticities relating increases in mortality to increases in total particulate emissions. Again, a lack of adequate data prevented the analysis from being precise. Assuming an elastic- ity of 0.09 for total mortality for increases in particulate air emissions, as many as 200 deaths in Salt Lake County in 1995 may be attributable to a 46 percent increase in particulate emissions in that year over 1975 levels. In summary, considering the environment and demographic factors in a kind of analysis that this paper calls "environmental demogra- phy" can be valuable to the regulatory arena. It can indicate where the greatest benefit in terms of protecting human health and welfare can be achieved. Of course, at this time environmental demography is limited. We do not fully understand what segments of the population would suffer the greatest harm from many pollutants. In addition, we can't completely grasp the relationship between some pollutants and the health of the general population, let alone that of specific xvii ------- subpopulations in certain geographic areas. However, environmental demographic analyses can give us some indication of where the greatest potential for detriment to health will be in the future. Conclusions and Recommendations A study of this type is hampered by a lack of appropriate dem- ographic data. Subpopulation projections are not disaggregated to the AQCR or county level; there is no comprehensive theoretical or empirical basis for much of the analysis (e.g., specific coefficients of elasticity or coefficients of vulnerability for subpopulations and various pollutants); and there are no adequate mechanisms to utilize the results of such analyses in the development and implementation of environmental protection policies. Future work to advance the state of the art should include: o Devising methods to measure regional values, attitudes and priorities related to technology's hazards; o Devising methods to determine the comparative priorities for different regions; o Providing more detailed information on the etiology of envi- ronmentally related diseases; o Determining the quantitative relationships between concentra- tion of environmental hazard and probability of harm for various populations; and o Determining the ability to set standards differentially, based on geographic area and population (demographic) characteristics. xvm ------- 1.0 INTRODUCTION As a technological animal, man is as much a product of his tech- nology as his technology is a product of him. Dependence on technol- ogy began when our ancestors first shaped a piece of flint into a sharp spearhead to kill game. However, this first spearhead was, both literally and figuratively, two-edged. It could injure one of our ancestors, either accidently or intentionally, just as easily as it could be used to bring down game. Thus, with the advent of tech- nology was born the potential for harm to human populations from other than natural causes. Since the stone age, human evolution has been primarily a phe- nomenon of cultural rather than biological change. For many soci- eties, this cultural change has resulted in reliance on an increas- ingly complex and pervasive technology. With this technology has come an increasingly complex and pervasive potential for man-made environmental harm to human populations. Indeed, in many cases, this potential harm is global in scope. For example, changes in atmo- spheric carbon dioxide levels from fossil fuel combustion hold the potential for climatic changes (Otway et al. 1975). The potential for indirect harm (as from noxious or toxic chemi- cals in the air, water or soil) or direct harm (as from occupational handling of dangerous chemicals) resulting from technological devel- opments has become so pervasive in recent decades that governments have increasingly adopted a regulatory role in order to control 1 ------- proliferation of potentially harmful side effects of technology. In the United States, this regulatory role culminated in passage of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) (PL 91-190) and the formation of the Environmental Protection Agency in 1970. Current U.S. environmental regulations can be considered the first-generation attempt to regulate potential harm to society from the by-products of its technology. These regulations sometimes allow for regional variations, as is the case with State Implementation Plans, governing industrial air emissions. However, the authors believe that standards and regulations are often based on the implied assumption that society is uniform in its tolerance to environmental harm, both psychologically (values and perceptions) and physiologi- cally (individual biological tolerances). The thesis of this paper is that a second generation of environ- mental legislation and regulations should consider the U.S. popula- tion as heterogeneous. Demographic characteristics, such as age distribution, employment, income and education, not only differ in different regions of the country, but also undergo change with time. For example, the average age of the U.S. population is increasing and the regional distribution patterns of the elderly are changing with the migration of retired persons to Sunbelt states such as Florida A detailed review of the regulatory role of government is pre- sented in Chapter 3 of Environmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Environ- mental Protection Agency 1980). ------- and Arizona. Data indicate that the elderly are more vulnerable to certain pollutants than the population as a whole (Calabrese 1978). In addition to demographic factors, environmental legislation and regulations should consider regional variations in values and perceptions that influence tolerances to potential environmental harm. It can be argued that demographic variables and attitudes should not be considered in the regulatory arena. One might ask why the healthy, youthful residents of one area might merit less protection from pollutants than the older, more vulnerable residents of another. One might also say that considering such factors would be too costly and confusing. Without attempting to dispute such arguments, this paper presents a case for investigating a new approach to regulation based on such considerations. 1.1 A New Approach 1.1.1 Meeting the Challenge The challenges facing those responsible for ensuring the health and welfare of members of our technological society are numerous and varied. A tool that can be used to meet the challenge is the study of the relationships between societal characteristics and the probability of harm from technology's effluvia—a study or system of thought that this paper terms "environmental demography." These preliminary remarks outline potential uses for data that might be provided by environmental demography now and in the future. ------- Next, this paper explores the current limits of the environmental demographic approach before presenting suggestions to correct these deficiencies. The discoveries of this exploration are too partial and general to be more than suggestive. However, the study illustrates the potential utility of environmental demography, and provides direc- tions for further work in the field. 1.1.2 Potential Uses of Environmental Demographic Data In general, environmental demographic data can be used to help inform and direct the processes of developing and implementing envi- ronmental protection policies so as to devise regulatory strategies specifically tuned to the needs of those they are supposed to pro- tect. The environmental implications of changes in occupation, loca- tion, age and other population variables provide a more complete and precise understanding of environmental protection problems than would be available without such considerations. This understanding affords the potential for better use of the nation's limited resources— ensuring that environmental regulations work toward the allocation of resources with the least environmental degradation. The limited analysis presented in this paper shows how our per- spective on the environment can be refined when pollution and pop- ulation data are combined. Considered in isolation, expected trends in some air pollution levels may be interpreted as instances of prog- ress in environmental protection, and they do represent limited ------- improvements. However, if concurrent demographic changes suggested a greater probability of adverse health effects despite these reduced pollution levels, one real limit of the process would be laid bare. Consideration of demographic changes would permit discovery of a popu- lation's specific protection needs. Actions can then be proposed and taken to provide adequate protection, whether through specialized pollution abatement, health delivery systems, regulations or some other approach to a specific problem. A refined perspective on protection problems and opportunities would permit better research and development strategies, ensuring the availability of all elements needed to determine regulatory strate- gies. And, in response to updated estimates and projections of popu- lation variables (regularly provided by the Bureau of the Census), these strategies can be adjusted as feasible to keep them responsive to the population's changing needs. An important potential use of environmental demographic data is its incorporation in public information programs. It can be argued that the public has a right to hear and a duty to heed information that clearly portrays a potential source of harm associated with a technological society. It might seem that such information would be widely ignored. Many individuals and institutions in our society are driven by eco- nomic incentives as much as by any other motive. Moreover, many Americans needlessly subject themselves to harm, as evidenced by ------- those who smoke cigarettes. However, many also quit smoking, demon- strating a desire to avoid harm, and many more could be expected to avoid environmental hazards if they were alerted to potential health threats. The ultimate success of attempts to avoid or reduce hazards would depend in part upon effective communication of a complete pic- ture of the projected probability of harm, the realistic alterna- tives, and associated costs and benefits. 1.1.3 Limitations to the Study and Use of Environmental Demography At the present time there appear to be some real limits to the generation and utilization of environmental demographic data. Some of these limits may be readily corrected, but eradicating others could require substantial investments of time and resources. There are three kinds of limits: (1) Much of the demographic data needed for the desired analy- ses is not readily available; (2) The environmental demographic approach lacks a comprehen- sive and coherent theoretical or empirical basis for much of the desired analysis; and (3) It is unclear whether adequate institutional mechanisms are actually or potentially operative for utilizing the results of such analyses in the development and implementation of environmental protection policies, plans, programs and projects. If the potential benefits of this environmental demographic approach are to be properly realized, these problems must be better understood and their solutions must be undertaken. ------- This limited analysis deals with the first two of these problems most directly and the third to a lesser extent. The third problem of potentially inadequate institutional mechanisms for utilizing detailed data, while germane to this paper, is only raised as a philo- sophical issue. Section 2 points out that the current-generation environmental regulatory milieu is essentially an egalitarian one, attempting to protect all equally, irrespective of individual values, wishes, health or needs. A vital change in regulatory philosophy that considers these values, wishes and needs at a regional level is necessary to the optimal use of this approach. The problems of inadequate data and lack of a basic theoretical framework are likely to be formidable ones. Inasmuch as the environ- mental demographic approach attempts to differentially relate popula- tion attributes and both environmental and occupational hazards, the task of formulating the necessary theoretical framework and empirical data must call upon many areas of the social, health and environmen- tal sciences. Limited demographic data were a major source of difficulty in this analysis, as is evident in Section 4. Much of the data needed to project demographic variables was not readily available for polit- ical-geographic units below the state level. Consequently, state level data were used in place of more precise numbers needed for the West Central Florida Air Quality Control Region (AQCR). For the present purpose of illustration, this substitution is little more ------- than an annoyance, but, when definitive results are needed, such substitutions may not be acceptable. 1.1.4 Suggestions for Improving Environmental Demographic Study Environmental demography incorporates population variables such as location, occupation, age distribution and attitudes, along with environmental variables such as pollutant releases to determine the probability of harm for subpopulations in various regions of the country. Many of the corrective measures one might recommend for making environmental demography a useful tool in environmental pro- tection processes have been introduced in the preceding discussion of current limits, including the need for disaggregated demographic trends. The limited analysis presented here demonstrates that the approach has sufficient potential to warrant further exploration and development. But, the next step to be taken is to better define the near-term, mid-term and long-term implications within agencies responsible for environmental protection. Therefore, this report recommends that such an exploration be undertaken before abandoning or advancing the approach introduced here. If this exploration reveals a sufficient need for and capacity to use knowledge that could be obtained from environmental demography, then future work should be undertaken to advance the state of the art, including: o Devising methods to measure regional values, attitudes and priorities related to technology's hazards; o Devising methods to determine the comparative priorities for different regions; ------- o Providing more detailed information on the etiology of envi- ronmentally-related diseases; o Determining the quantitative relationships between concentra- tion of environmental hazard and probability of harm for various demographic populations; and o Determining the ability to set standards differentially, based on geographic area and population (demographic) characteristics. 1.2 Outlook on Jeopardy The potential for environmental and occupational harm is prob- ably on the decline in the United States since pollution control measures are lowering emissions, the population is shifting from congested northeastern cities to the less polluted South and West, and workers are turning to less dangerous occupations. There is no way of knowing how long these trends will continue, but the authors believe they will extend at least to the year 2000. At the same time, however, the authors also believe acceptance of harm also appears to be declining as society's expectations for safety continue to outrun technology's achievements. Declining acceptance will be a primary force contributing to efforts to reduce man's jeopardy, or probability of harm. Of course, such efforts would also require a better understanding of the causes, conditions and consequences of environmental and occupational hazards. This exploratory study represents a preliminary step toward that understanding. In a consideration of man-made hazards, the simple fact that the problem begins and ends with people is an essential point of departure for further consideration. This study attempts ------- to shed some light on this facet of man's jeopardy through environ- mental demography. Individual behavior, denoted by some occupation and location changes, may be viewed as an attempt at self preservation. When presented with an opportunity, some people act to reduce their expo- sure to hazards or other undesirable conditions. This is arguable, as evidenced by population growth in California where migrants seem undaunted by the multiple threats of earthquakes, mudslides, brush fires and flooding. Nonetheless, some persons relocate to the sub- urbs, retire early from dangerous jobs or move to the Sunbelt to avoid hazards. Without appropriate environmental regulation of tech- nology, however, hazards will follow population shifts wherever they go. The suburbs and the Sunbelt could well become the places to avoid in the future. 10 ------- 2.0 ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY 2.1 Introduction Man evolves and develops in response to the selective pressures of his environment, whether natural or man-made. In contemporary nations such as the United States where technology is a major factor driving development, people respond to the selective pressures caused by technology and its by-products as much as, if not more than, they do to selective pressures of nature. Nevertheless, the basic prin- ciple of natural selection remains operant: those individuals less adapted to their environment at any given time are less likely to survive. In essence, their life expectancy is reduced. It is important to emphasize that the environment acts at the individual level. Individuals at a selective disadvantage face a reduced life expectancy. The effect of the environment on a popula- tion, then, is a function of the proportion of that population at a selective disadvantage or, conversely, at a selective advantage. When speaking of humans and potential harm from environmental haz- ards, one must realize that the entire population is usually at a selective disadvantage, although some individuals are more likely to be affected by a given environmental factor or pollutant due to inherent attributes such as age or sex, or due to external activities such as an occupation that involves inhaling cotton dust or handling dangerous chemicals. Rather than discussing individuals being at a selective disad- vantage with regard to environmental factors, one can consider them 11 ------- as being vulnerable to environmental pollution, realizing that for most pollutants, individuals will display a tolerance range that depends upon physiological and psychological factors. Besides individual vulnerability, an important factor is contact with a given hazard. The collective probability of harm for a population would depend on the number of individuals as well as on their collective vulnerability, and on the duration and intensity of their contact with a given environmental hazard. This section looks briefly at the concepts of both natural and cultural (or technological) selection and the significance of these concepts to the behavior of human populations in a technological environment. After establishing that human populations are at the selective mercy of an environment that they have often shaped with their own technology, it goes on to discuss the characteristics of populations that determine their collective vulnerability to environ- mental pollution (e.g., growth rate, age distribution, geographic distribution). Finally, it examines the concept of probability of harm in terms of the way in which it is perceived and the ways in which conflicting societal values may alter that perception. 2.2 Natural Selection and Cultural Evolution Darwin (1859) first formulated a detailed concept of natural selection as the primary mechanism by which organisms evolve. Basically, natural selection occurs in the following way: 12 ------- o For any given species or population of organisms, more indi- viduals are born into each generation than the environment can support to reproduce the next generation. Individuals of each generation display physical and physiological variabil- ity due to genetic differences. o Since the necessities of life are often in limited supply, organisms must compete for food, shelter and space to mate and raise young. This competition often takes subtle forms— the pregnant female mammal that can nurture her developing fetus more efficiently than her sisters is also likely to produce stronger, more competitively successful offspring for the next generation. o The natural environment is hostile to most organisms. Besides having to compete for resources in short supply, organisms must outrun or outguess predators or otherwise avoid natural extermination before they are able to reproduce. Those individuals of a population or a species best adapted to a particular habitat at a particular time will be most likely to reproduce the next generation. They will be selected by the forces of nature. o Finally, environments change with time, altering the selec- tive forces exerted on organisms, which results in changes in the types of genetic variants that are most successful or most adapted to the environment. Hence evolution occurs. With some degree of daring in the Victorian era, Darwin (1871) postulated that the process of natural selection applied to man as well as to the rest of the biological world. The concept of natural selection, particularly as it applied to man, sparked a raging intel- lectual debate during the latter part of the nineteenth century and early twentieth century. Out of this debate emerged several concepts important to our understanding of how societies have developed and are still evolving. Darwin's work gave impetus to the idea that human societies and cultures interact with the environment just as individuals do and, if these cultures and societies interact with the environment, they too may be at its selective mercy. 13 ------- Some thinkers extended the original concept of natural selection to the idea that human cultures are direct products of the environ- ment in which they have evolved. In its most rigid form, environ- mental determinism, this concept holds that there is a direct and deterministic relationship between environment and culture. While the deterministic view may be too narrow and simplistic, the fact remains that cultures have evolved within, and as part of the fabric of their environment. Cultures develop through adaptation to the selective pressures of a changing environment. If human culture interacts with the environment, what has become of the interaction between the individual and the environment? It can be argued that, while individuals do interact directly with their environment, the technology upon which human culture is based increasingly protects individuals from nature's harms. In highly industrialized societies, individuals are largely shielded from the vicissitudes of their environment by various technological adapta- tions. The probability of harm from parasites is reduced by inno- vations such as insecticides to control mosquitoes and tsetse flies. Increased crop yields through genetic engineering, monoculture and mechanized farming have increased the number of persons who can be fed from available arable land. Irrigation has increased the amount of land available for agricultural use. Modern medicine has not only increased human life spans, but it also has sustained and kept both biologically and socially productive many individuals who would otherwise have perished due to natural selective forces. 14 ------- The benefits of modern technology have been achieved with nega- tive effects that are increasingly apparent. Throughout most of man's cultural development, technology's effects (both direct and indirect) have generally displayed a direct relationship between the technology itself and consequent human harm. Within the last cen- tury, however, technology has become so complex and pervasive that it is no longer possible to see direct causal links between single tech- nologies or groups of technologies and specific environmental harms. The presence, for instance, of organic carcinogens in the air and water results from a plethora of technological activities rather than one technology or family of technologies. In essence, the environ- ment has been altered as a result of the activities of technology— changes in types and levels of noise, changes in the chemistry of air and water, artificial substances in food, changed life-styles, and improved methods for protection from disease and injury. The pervasiveness of technology, its undesirable side products and the geographic extent of resultant problems have increasingly led government to assume a regulatory role to protect health and welfare. The Federal role has evolved since environmental problems transcend state and regional boundaries (as in air quality degradation that often cuts across state lines, particularly in urban and industrial- ized areas), are related to interstate commerce (as in the case of aircraft emissions), or are covered under long-standing Federal 15 ------- legislation such as the Rivers and Harbors Act of 1899. Some Federal legislation sets minimum standards, while delegating regulatory authority to the states. Under the Clean Water Act of 1977 (PL 95-217), point source discharges are subject to both Federal and state regulations. However, states with qualified programs can take over the permit program of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimina- tion System (NPDES). Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (PL 91-604), the Environmental Protection Agency was charged with estab- lishing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), although states were left the prerogative of establishing stricter standards (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980). The current generation of regulatory enactments and amendments has problems such as defining risk and quantifying its "acceptable" levels (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980). Environmental regulations often present conflicts among energy, economic and envi- ronmental imperatives. Frequently conflicting with industry's aims, they can also be complex and lead to increased costs. For example, the expense of environmental control technology must be borne by industry. This expense, added to rising costs for energy, taxes, labor and land, may make it impossible for businesses to realize sufficient profit to continue. In the older industrialized portions of the country, businesses requiring major reconstruction to meet environmental regulations may find it more profitable to relocate to the Sunbelt where costs are lower for labor, taxes and energy, and 16 ------- where environmental control requirements may be less stringent. Such relocations would have two results. The local economy losing the industry would suffer economic losses, including the loss of jobs, and the area gaining the industry would experience economic gains. The area losing the industry would experience less pollution while the area gaining the industry would experience more. In most instances, the current environmental regulatory frame- work has grown by a process of accretion, with regulations promul- gated and amended as need was perceived either as a result of prolif- eration of new technology, industrial development of a new region, or real or apparent causal relationships between technology and environ- mental hazards. This development of environmental regulation by specific responses to specific perceived problems has resulted in a com- plexity in which the regulatory measures themselves may have created environmental or other problems. Hence, the use of catalytic con- verters on new model automobiles to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions results in the atmospheric formation of sulfuric acid mist. Blamed for a variety of adverse effects, this pollutant reacts with lime- stone in buildings to form gypsum, which erodes easily. It also damages crops and affects the human respiratory system (The MITRE Corporation 1980). Similarly, the use of unleaded gasoline to reduce lead emissions requires that refineries use more energy to produce a fuel with a 17 ------- sufficient octane rating. Logically, this increased energy use would contribute to the nation's energy problem, adding to the need for imported crude oil. In an attempt to eliminate or reduce the complexity of environ- mental regulations while making them more appropriate or responsive to emerging needs, a second-generation regulatory phase is in order. This second-generation process could begin with a comprehensive review of current legislation and regulations to identify and elimi- nate unnecessary overlap and actual or potential conflicts. Of particular importance is the identification of areas where conflict- ing national goals have led to conflicting environmental legislation so that goals can be prioritized. In many cases, different regions of the country may have different economic and/or environmental goals, justifying different regulatory emphases. In addition, as a result of varied demographic characteristics and values, "acceptable" levels of a given environmental hazard may vary in different regions of the country. The remaining two subsections of this section discuss relation- ships between human activity, attitudes and attributes, along with consequent vulnerabilities to environmental hazards and the influ- ence of individual and collective perceptions on responses to poten- tial environmental hazards. 18 ------- 2.3 Relationships of Activity, Attitudes and Attributes with Environmental Hazards Human social systems involve a series of interactions among three functional variables: activities, attitudes and attributes. These functional variables in turn interact with the environment and determine individual and collective responses to the environment and its hazards at any given time. Figure 1 depicts the interactions among these functional variables and the environment. The variables and their significance are discussed below, followed by a more extensive discussion of specific population attributes and their role in interactions between society and the environment. 2.3.1 Functional Societal Variables One's relationship with the environment is a function of where and how one works, lives and plays (activities); of one's values and goals (attitudes); and of attributes such as age, sex and education that determine one's role in society. Individuals and groups inter- act with the environment while producing and consuming both goods and services. These interactions can result in pollution. Contact with this pollution or with other environmental hazards poses a potential for harm from these hazards. The probability of harm for individuals is a result of contact with the hazards of the environment and of vulnerability to the harm represented by the hazards. Vulnerability and the duration and degree of contact with a pollutant will vary, depending on one's life-style and activities as well as demographic factors such as age, sex and education. For example, those who work 19 ------- Population Attributes Determining Vulnerability • Age • Sex • Genetics Location Preexisting Disease Other Environmental Hazard • Air Pollutants • Water Pollutants • Noise" » Radiation Contact with Hazard Jeopardy Human Activity • Occupation • Recreation • Habits • Other Intervening Perceptions i Consequent Probability of Harm Attitudes Values Desires Education Other T Perception of Jeopardy FIGURE 1 INTERACTIONS AMONG FUNCTIONAL SOCIETAL VARIABLES AND ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY 20 ------- with asbestos or use certain hair dryers run a greater risk of harm from asbestos than others who avoid asbestos at work and at home. Moreover, smokers who inhale asbestos fibers are more vulnerable to lung damage from asbestos than are nonsmokers. The activities of members of a population and population attri- butes (demographic factors) provide indicators of the population's tendency to come in contact with hazards and its vulnerability. Furthermore, by looking at changes in demographic variables, it is possible to estimate changes in contact with hazards and in the probability of harm for various populations or subpopulations. Section 4 demonstrates a methodology for determining quantitatively how vulnerability and the collective probability of harm change with change in population patterns. In addition to activities and attributes, the attitudes or values of a society; culture or population can play a strong role in determining an "acceptable" probability of harm. For example, some parts of the country such as northern New England or the Rocky Mountains have come to represent a last wilderness or semi-wild frontier in terms of living close to nature without the trappings of high technology. As a result of this perception, many individuals have opted for life in a high quality "clean" environment rather than for one in more polluted surroundings with greater opportunity for economic gain. These individuals will tend to accept a lower proba- bility of harm from environmental hazards than will individuals who 21 ------- have chosen to remain in less pristine areas for economic reasons. By the same token, individuals in a highly industrialized sector of the country, when faced with a choice between a higher probability of harm or a lower employment potential, will probably opt for accepting the higher probability of harm. Demographic factors, or population attributes, such as popula- tion size and density, spatial distribution, and social and economic composition, help to determine the productive and consumptive activ- ities of populations as well as many of their values or attitudes. For example, a large and crowded population, living in an urban cen- ter, working at industrial jobs and playing as spectators of stadium sports and television programs, will come in contact with different levels and kinds of pollutants than will a small and sparse popula- tion, living in a small town, working at commercial jobs and playing as participants of field and stream sports. Moreover, if one of these two hypothetical populations, on the average, is considerably older or smokes and drinks considerably more than the other, its vulnerability to some kinds of harm may be greater. Vulnerability involves physiological and psychological condi- tions that predispose an individual to harm and, as such, it is related to demographic and socioeconomic variables that influence those conditions. In the case of physiological conditions, age, sex, genetic variables and personal habits are the most prevalent factors influencing vulnerability. Smoking and drinking are the personal 22 ------- habits most often pointed to as having an influence on vulnerability, while education, income and marital status have been used as indica- tors of general health care and resultant condition of health. The present state of knowledge about the relationships between population attributes and vulnerability to environmental harm is not especially well developed. Statistical associations of morbidity and mortality with conditions of environmental degradation have been documented; however, etiological relationships are not completely understood. The following subsection summarizes some of what is currently known about the relationships between population attributes and potential vulnerability to environmental harm. 2.3.2 Population Variables and Vulnerability Vulnerability to disease, including that caused or prompted by environmental pollution, tends to vary with population attributes or variables (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980). These variables are indica- tors of conditions that predispose individuals to disease or of a higher probability of existing disease that may be aggravated by con- tact with environmental pollution. Research efforts are beginning to clarify the relationships between population attributes and vulnera- bility. 2.3.2.1 Age. The incidence and prevalence of heart disease, lung disease and cancer have all been shown to increase with advanced age (Miller 1976). Correlation between age and disease prevalence does not necessarily imply a direct one-to-one causal relationship, 23 ------- since increasing age results in increased contact with occupational and environmental agents of harm and to psychologically stressful situations. However, there is also physiological change associated with the aging process and, in those cases where increased contact with harmful agents is not a factor and age is directly associated with vulnerability, pollution may cause or promote disease in older individuals. In those cases where the age-disease relationship is a function of past contact with pollution, continued or renewed contact may cause, promote or aggravate the disease. Developmental stages or life cycle phases are related to age in that these stages are chronological phenomena. In some instances, specific stages are associated with predisposition to certain pollu- tion or environmentally related diseases. The prenatal state, for instance, is associated with greater vulnerability to teratogenic and/or carcinogenic effects of chemical agents that can pass through the placental barrier. Most teratogenic effects are induced during the first three months of development when the fetus is undergoing organ formation (National Academy of Sciences 1975). Physiological changes associated with puberty tend to correlate with increased vul- nerability to cancers and with increased sensitivity to nitrogen oxides (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980). 2.3.2.2 Sex. Differences in vulnerability due to sex may be a result of one or more of many aspects of sexual differences, includ- ing: variations in personal habits such as drinking or smoking, 24 ------- differences in occupational exposure and internal biochemical differ- ences as a result of a different hormone balance. Representing a larger share of those who work directly with dangerous chemicals, males could logically be expected to come in contact with such occu- pational hazards more frequently than females. For females, estrogen may influence the development of breast, ovarian, and uterine cancer, while, on the other hand, its presence may raise an individual's tol- erance level for certain carcinogens (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980). In the past, males have contracted lung cancer more frequently than females because of a greater tendency to smoke cigarettes, although females have been closing this gap. 2.3.2.3 Genetic Factors. High levels of vulnerability to var- ious diseases have been demonstrated to correlate with genetic inher- itance. However, in studies based on family groups, common disease vulnerability may be due to inherited factors, a common contact with an environmental harm, or both. Nevertheless, inheritance of disease vulnerability has been established, although the specific interaction of environmental factors is not usually known (Anderson 1975, Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980). A number of precancerous and cancerous condi- tions have been shown to be related to heredity (Lynch and Kaplan 1974). In addition to cancer, diseases such as diabetes mellitus, anemias, allergies and asthmas to which one is genetically predis- posed may also result in a predisposition to the effects of chemical pollutants (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980). 25 ------- 2.3.2.4 Personal Habits. Dietary patterns and the use of tobacco, drugs and alcohol are personal habits that tend to be asso- ciated with vulnerability to disease and to the effects of environ- mental pollutants. Tobacco smoking has been shown to be related to lung cancer, chronic bronchitis, emphysema and coronary heart disease (Hammond 1975). There is also a synergistic relationship between smoking and inhaling asbestos and possibly other airborne particles and fibers. Alcohol consumption appears to be related to cancers of the stomach, liver and rectum, and acts synergistically with smoking to promote or cause cancers of the larynx, oropharynx, oral cavity and esophagus. In addition, alcohol consumption may increase vulner- ability to organic solvent poisoning and may contribute to nutri- tional deficiency which in turn may increase the risk of environ- mentally related cancers. 2.4 Probability of Harm Man's perception of the probability that he will be harmed plays a vital role in determining what may be an acceptable level of an environmental hazard. The environmental regulatory milieu discussed earlier represents an institutionalized system to control the prob- ability of harm for the populace. Implicit in this body of regula- tions is the assumption that the government has decided on acceptable level for certain pollutants. However, regulations are established through a complex process involving judgments about the relative benefits and costs of various innovations and activities of 26 ------- technology—costs in terms of environmental hazards and benefits in terms of economics, convenience and so forth, with both being mea- sured ultimately in terms of the quality of life. This paper attempts to provide both a theoretical framework and a methodological basis for the promulgation of a second-generation body of environmental legislation that fine-tunes our current regula- tory apparatus to take into account the different needs, vulnerabil- ities, tendencies to come in contact with pollutants and values of people in different parts of the country in determining an acceptable probability of harm. 2.4.1 Relationships Between Probability of Harm, Vulnerability and Contact with a Harmful Agent Probability of harm is a complex concept that attempts to cap- ture an even more complex reality. The kinds of harms involved are numerous and varied and not all are caused or promoted by technol- ogy. The levels of harm that can befall a population can be acute or chronic and range from minor problems to death. One population may be willing to accept a higher probability of harm than another. An important determining factor is whether con- tact with a hazard is voluntary. For a given level of perceived benefit, a greater probability of harm is likely to be accepted if contact with a hazard is voluntary rather than involuntary. There are numerous other considerations, including knowledge or ignorance of a harmful agent. 27 ------- 2.4.2 Probability of Harm: Perceptions and Acceptability Human societies have faced a certain probability of harm from environmental hazards since our first ancestor was consciously aware of the potential dangers and benefits of his technology and his environment. For much of man's evolution, he faced mostly natural environmental harms—primarily earthquakes, storms, tidal waves and diseases. The proliferation of technology brought with it new sources of harm which have become increasingly prevalent and perva- sive within the past century with increases in the role and complex- ity of technology. Individual and group perceptions will determine to a large extent what will be permitted as an acceptable probability of harm. Such perceptions depend on a variety of internal and external factors such as age, sex, ethnic background, experience, frequency of contact with a given substance or event, knowledge and availability of infor- mation. Perceptions may conflict with reality (Velimirovic 1975). An example of the differences in perception is given by Otway et al. (1975) in a hypothetical comparison between an activity with an acci- dent probability of 1 per year with 1 fatality per accident, and an activity with 1 million fatalities per accident but an accident prob- ability of 1 in 1 million years. Statistically, both situations have the same probability of harm since they result on the average in one fatality per year. However, due to various intervening factors including level of occurrence, societal perceptions of the two situa- tions would differ greatly. 28 ------- For the purposes of this study, some generalizations about prob- ability of harm proposed by Velimirovic (1975) are germane. Man is basically conservative and will try to avoid danger associated with the new and unknown, yet will submit to danger to maintain the status quo. When prestige is gained from technological advances, man is willing to be placed in jeopardy to achieve social gratification. Man's concern for an issue, and hence his perception of the probabil- ity that he will be harmed, is a function of distance, time and fre- quency. Finally, voluntary contact with a harmful agent is generally tolerated more readily than if contact were involuntary, although the existence of some level of control over the outcome of the involun- tary tends to increase acceptance. Overall, there is a paucity of knowledge regarding behavior responses and attitudes toward probability of harm from environmental hazards. Further research into the areas suggested by Velimirovic (1975) would provide more knowledge from a behavioral viewpoint. Much of what is currently known is reviewed by Rowe (1975), Slovic et al. (1975) and Otway et al. (1975), as well as Velimirovic (1975). 29 ------- 3.0 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY The general discussion of the relationships between probability of harm, vulnerability and contact with a harmful agent presented in the preceding section suggests that changing population patterns and trends in the United States may result in important changes in pollu- tion, contact, vulnerability and jeopardy. Demographic factors hav- ing the clearest implications for environmental harm are occupation, location and age. This section examines demographic trends and their environmental implications at the national level and for three regions of the coun- try. Detailed population data presented in the Appendix serve as a basis for the observations presented. The conclusions reached here are based on recent trends and projections. The trends could change, which would affect the validity of the conclusions. For example, population projections for the South do not consider the recent influx of Cuban refugees, who may be younger and heartier than the retirees who have been flocking to the Sunbelt. For this reason, any mechanism to utilize demographic data in the regulatory process should allow for frequent updates with new projections. 3.1 Generalized Implications of National Demographic Trends For the nation as a whole, the authors believe projected trends in employment and residence suggest that people will work and live in environments that now offer lower pollution levels than do the local- ities from which shifts will occur. Projected trends in population 31 ------- age distribution, however, suggest the likelihood of a lower toler- ance for certain pollutants since the national population is expected, on the average, to grow older.* The resultant compound implication appears to be a reduced probability of harm for the population as a whole since many older retirees will tend to move to Sunbelt states.** Despite their increased vulnerability, the elderly will incur less exposure to environmental harm there since lower emissions are projected. National trends in employment suggest that the proportion of workers engaged in potentially hazardous employment such as farm and blue-collar jobs is decreasing.** This may be offset, however, by an absolute increase in the size of the work force due to popula- tion increases. Trends in residence parallel those for employment, with people moving to regions with less potential hazard or to rural or suburban localities where environmental hazards are less. The relative proportion of persons living in the more polluted industria- lized regions of the country such as the Northeast and the Midwest is decreasing. The number residing in the more polluted metropolitan areas is also decreasing as more people move to suburban and rural areas. Finally, many of those escaping the polluted *See Appendix, Table A-3. **See Appendix, Table A-6. ***See Appendix, Table A-5. ****See Appendix, Table A-8. 32 ------- industrialized and urban areas represent the more vulnerable elderly and young, as retired workers move to the Sunbelt and young dependent children move to the suburbs. The trend toward an older population carries with it a mixed but mostly less favorable set of implications. On the one hand, fewer women are having children and family size is decreasing, resulting in a shrinking proportion of children under age 5 with resultant reduced potential for genetic and somatic harm from environmental hazards for this group compared to what it might have been. On the other hand, as the average age of the population increases due to increasing longevity, more men and women enter the range of greater vulnera- bility to many of the harms associated with environmental pollution. These general population trends seem to imply an overall reduc- tion in the probability of harm for individuals in the United States as a result of reduced exposure. However, as a result of a projected population increase and projected increased average age of the population, the total number of persons harmed by pollutants may increase. In addition, it has been pointed out earlier and it will be emphasized in the regional data and projections in the Appendix, that the population of the United States will continue to display hetero- geneity with regard to demographic factors affecting vulnerability to *See Appendix, Table A-3. **See Appendix, Table A-l. 33 ------- harm from environmental hazards and contact with those hazards. Therefore, some individuals may face a greater probability of harm than others. To be specific, the incidence of pollution-related illnesses should tend to increase among the growing numbers of older, more vulnerable persons, especially those older individuals who remain in the more industrial and urban areas of the nation. On the other hand, illness rates should be expected to proportionately decrease among the increasing numbers of people, both young and old, who flee from industrialized areas to the relatively less polluted areas of the country. In the final analysis, those who do not escape the environmental degradation of the factory and the city will, as now, suffer the greater probability of harm from environmental hazard. And, as now, this group can be expected to include a disproportionate percentage of the economically and educationally disadvantaged—the poor, those with less education, those in blue-collar and urban- oriented service jobs, and those in basic and heavy industry. In summary, younger men and women in the work force probably face a lower probability of harm than did previous generations. On the average, they have safer jobs and surroundings. Moreover, they will enjoy advances in pollution control measures and health care that benefit their generation more than their older predecessors. The younger workers are in better health and are less vulnerable to environmental hazards because of their generation as well as their age. 34 ------- 3.2 Generalized Implications of Regional Demographic Trends Although national and regional analyses provide a broad perspec- tive on the implications of demographic trends for potential harm, an environmental hazard is often a more localized phenomenon. There- fore, three census divisions have been selected to represent varying regional trends. The three census divisions selected for analysis in this section are the Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic and Mountain divisions. The Middle Atlantic division statistics reflect a low population growth resulting from declining industrial activity of the Northeast. The South Atlantic and Mountain divisions represent areas of rapid pop- & ulation increase. Factors underlying the growth of these divi- sions differ, creating significant variation in the changing popula- tion composition and in associated implications for the probability of harm from environmental hazards. Specifically, growth in the South Atlantic division has been generally attributed to the Sunbelt phenomenon—the migration of people to areas of milder climate for retirement and recreation. The Mountain division, however, is gain- ing population as a result of resource development in response to critical national energy needs. 3.2.1 South Atlantic Census Division In the South Atlantic Census Division, the national trend in age composition is amplified by an influx of increasing numbers of See Appendix, Tables A-9 and A-16. 35 ------- New England Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1972. FIGURE2 CENSUS DIVISIONS OF THE UNITED STATES ------- retirees. The national trend of a proportional increase in sub- urban and rural residence is muted, and the occupational trend of proportionally fewer employees in hazardous occupations is only partially echoed.** While there is a comparative shift away from blue-collar manufacturing employment in this region of the country, a larger percentage of working age men and women are participating in the labor force. Manufacturing is growing more rapidly in the South Atlantic division than in the nation. While the probability of harm from environmental hazards may be lower in the South Atlantic division than in such areas as the Middle Atlantic division, this probability will increase through the year 2000. Outside of the workplace, the potential for harm associated with environmental exposure is probably increasing in the South Atlantic division. Certainly the age, and probably with age the vulnera- bility, of this growing population is increasing.**** Moreover, the metropolitan areas of the South Atlantic division are maintaining JL ^u JL Jm Jg their 1970 share of the population. Larger numbers of persons will come in contact with pollution and consequent hazards that are likely to be associated with the growing urban and industrial areas *See Appendix, Tables A-10 and A-ll. **See Appendix, Tables A-12 and A-15. ***See Appendix, Tables A-14 (occupation) and A-13 (labor force by sex). ****See Appendix, Table A-ll. *****See Appendix, Table A-12. 37 ------- of this region and a comparatively greater number of these persons will be age 65 and over. These patterns of employment and age are particularly evident in Florida, where population and industry are growing at about two to three times the national rates and the proportion of elderly in the population is approaching twice that for the nation as a whole. Fur- thermore, while the proportion of the population living in metropol- itan areas has dropped slightly in recent years, in Florida the proportion of metropolitan residents is 20 percent higher than in the rest of the country. The basic implication of these trends is clear: the probability of harm from environmental hazards appears to be increasing in Florida where there is an expanding elderly population. 3.2.2 Mountain Census Division Trends in occupation, location and age in the Mountain Census Division are similar to those of the South Atlantic division, except that the average age is not rising as fast as it is in the South Atlantic division. In fact, the proportion of elderly persons in the Mountain division is less than in the nation as a whole.* As with the South Atlantic division, the Mountain division has not experi- enced the degree of population shift to nonmetropolitan residences that is being demonstrated in the nation as a whole. However, the *See Appendix, Table A-18, as compared with Table A-3. 38 ------- proportion of its population living in metropolitan areas over the past decade is 9 percent lower than in the nation as a whole.* The Mountain division is experiencing increases in both male and female labor force participation rates, contrary to the decline in the male rate occurring nationally, and in recent years manufacturing industries in the region have grown at about three times the national rate. The implications for the probability of harm associated with occupational hazard and exposure are similar in the rapidly growing South Atlantic and Mountain divisions. For both the South Atlantic and Mountain divisions, jeopardy seems to be increasing and the situation is likely to get worse, especially in the mountain states, as more and more energy resources are developed and energy-intensive industry moves to the region. The probability of harm from environmental hazards both inside and outside of the work place is likely to increase as pollution and the number of persons subjected to pollutants increase in growing urban and industrial areas. 3.2.3 Middle Atlantic Census Division The Middle Atlantic Census Division has an aging population that is moving away from metropolitan areas and its employment base is shifting from manufacturing industries. As appears to be the *See Appendix, Table A-19, as compared with Table A-8. **See Appendix, Tables A-20 (labor force by sex) and A-22 (industry). ***See Appendix, Tables A-25 (age), A-26 (shift from metropolitan areas) and A-29 (industry). 39 ------- case for the nation as a whole, the probability of harm from environ- mental and occupational hazards may be on the decline in the Middle Atlantic division. The trend of increased participation in the labor force echoes those in the South Atlantic and Mountain divisions, with the male participation rate increasing somewhat and the female rate jumping from 33.1 percent in 1960 to 49.7 percent in 1976.* How- ever, workers are likely to face fewer occupational hazards since the proportion of jobs in manufacturing has decreased, along with the absolute number of workers at these kinds of jobs.** While manu- facturing employment in the nation increased by about 8 percent between 1972 and 1978, it shrank by nearly 13 percent between 1970 and 1976 in the Middle Atlantic division. Even with these opposite changes, however, the division still had a larger proportion of its workers employed in manufacturing. While occupational contact with harmful substances may be declining, it is still probably higher than in the nation as a whole. The same is the case for environmental contact associated with residence in the Middle Atlantic division. While the region experi- enced a relative and absolute decline in metropolitan residency in the 1970s, the proportion of the total population living in metropol- itan areas was about 20 percent higher in the division than in the nation.*** *See Appendix, Table A-27. **See Appendix, Table A-29. Jf JL *U See Appendix, Table A-26. 40 ------- With people—especially the elderly—moving from the Middle Atlantic division to other areas, vulnerability to environmental hazards should decrease there. As with the nation as a whole, workers and others who remain in the division will be in less jeopardy due to the lower pollution levels made possible with new control measures and advances in general health care that will benefit their generation more than their predecessors. 41 ------- 4.0 ENVIRONMENTAL DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Recent projections of future environmental trends indicate that, by the year 2000, particulate emissions are expected to be compar- able in the states of Pennsylvania and Florida due to improvement in Pennsylvania and deterioration in Florida, compared with 1975 levels.* Concurrent projections of population trends indicate that, while the age 65 and over populations of these two states were roughly the same in 1975, by 2000 the elderly population of Pennsyl- vania will have increased only slightly and that of Florida will have more than doubled (U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b). Evidence indicates that the elderly are more sensitive to air pollutants than the general population (Calabrese 1978). If one also accepts emissions as a surrogate for air quality, one might expect a greater incidence of particulate-related health problems in Florida than in Pennsylvania by 2000 as a partial consequence of Florida's larger elderly population. This simplistic argument excludes consid- eration of factors such as climate and previous exposure. Neverthe- less, it does suggest that when demographic changes are considered in conjunction with pollutant emission trends, a more precise picture of future environmental protection needs will emerge than when pollutant data alone are considered. *Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980 High Growth Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) produced for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1980). 43 ------- This paper has a dual purpose: to examine the changing rela- tionships of populations to technology and the environment; and to explore the potential role of demographic trends as a viable factor in planning for the environmental future. As part of this explora- tion, a conceptual framework has been presented linking technologi- cal development and consequent environmental degradation to social factors such as human activities; attitudes and values; and attri- butes such as age, location, health, genetics and habits. In this section, the elderly subpopulation is singled out to illustrate the way in which relationships between environmental factors and demo- graphic trends might be used to provide input to the development of environmental policies. 4.1 Air Pollution: An Example of Environmental Demographic Analysis The discussions in Sections 2 and 3 of general implications associated with population changes explored the variables of contact with harmful agents and vulnerability without reference to particular kinds of hazards. To specifically illustrate the relationships between population change and change in probability of harm, air pol- lution is explored in the following discussion. This section provides general background information on major air pollutants and their adverse health effects, discusses the gen- eral implications and presents a discussion of projected air pol- lution trends emphasizing changes in net emissions expected at the national level and in each of the three census divisions discussed in 44 ------- Section 3. Section 4.2 contains specific examples of methodologies for quantitatively relating demographic factors to the probability of harm from environmental hazards for a specific locality. For the Tampa-St. Petersburg area, a probabilistic methodology is used to predict contact with harmful agents. For Salt Lake County, Utah, an econometric methodology is used to relate empirical projections in mortality that can be attributed to projected changes in pollutants. The two methodologies are offered as illustrations—not as precise measures of relationships between pollution levels and demo- graphic characteristics in the areas analyzed. Problems of inade- quate data and an incomplete understanding of the relationships between pollutants and health, mentioned above, prevent precision in environmental demography at this time. 4.1.1 Health Effects of Major Air Pollutants Several major air pollutants are recognized as having adverse health effects, as summarized in Table 1. The cost to the nation of the health effects of air pollution have been investigated by a num- ber of authors and reviewed extensively by Freeman (1979) and by Linnerooth (1975). Crocker et al. (1979) estimated, for instance, that a pollution reduction of 60 percent would result in health bene- fits equivalent to $59.1 billion in 1978 dollars. Other estimates, cited by Crocker et al. (1979), assumed less pollution reduction and lower dollar savings. 45 ------- TABLE 1 SELECTED STUDIES OF HEALTH EFFECTS OF MAJOR AIR POLLUTANTS Pollutants Target Population Covariates Participates, U.S. SMSAs3 sulfates Sulfur dioxide Sulfur dioxide Particulates, sulfur dioxide Sulfur dioxide Particulates Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Washington, D.C. U.S. SMSAs U.S. SMSAs; male, white, over 65 New York City Smoke shade, New York City sulfur dioxide Smoke shade, New York City sulfur dioxide New York Metro- politan region Buffalo, N.Y. Population, popu- lation density, age, race, income Weather, day of the week Temperature, precip- itation, humidity, age, race, sex, socioeconomic factors Various climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors Weather Weather, day of the week Temperature, epidemics, disas- ters, holidays, days of the week, time trends Age, sex, race, income A 10 percent reduction in minimum bi- weekly sulfate and mean biweekly par- ticulates associated with 0.91 percent reduction in mortality A decrease of 0.092 ppm in the mean con- centration of sulfur dioxide associated with a decrease of 63 deaths per day (Chicago) Sulfur dioxide found significant in explaining mortality rates Found significant association between sul- fates and mortality from arterioscler- otic heart disease and cancer of respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts Found significant association between sul- fur dioxide and particulate levels and mortality from respiratory and heart disease Found association of daily mortality with sulfur dioxide stronger than with any weather variable Between 18.12 and 36.76 excess deaths per, day associated with air pollution; 80 percent of effect ascribed to smoke shade, 20 percent to sulfur dioxide Found association between sulfur dioxide levels and residual mortality Mortality from chronic respiratory disease found twice as high at high as at low particulate levels aStandard Metropolitan Statistical Area. 46 ------- TABLE 1 (Continued) Pollutants Particulates Particulates, soiling, dust, sulfur dioxide, sulfation Particulates , soiling, dust, sulfur dioxide, sulfation Particulates , sulfur dioxide, sulfation Particulates , sulfur dioxide Soiling Particulates , sulfation Nitrogen dioxide Nitrogen dioxide Nitrogen dioxide Target Population Buffalo N.Y. Buffalo, N.Y. Nashville, Tenn. Nashville, Tenn. Nashville, Tenn. Los Angeles, Calif. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) Berlin, N.H. , and Chilliweek, B.C. Chattanooga, Tenn. , school children Chattanooga, Tenn. , school children Parents of Chattanooga, Tenn. , school children Covariates Age, sex, Age, sex, race , income Age , sex, race , income Age, sex, race, income Age, sex, race, Weather Weather, day of the week Smoking Smoking , socio- economic factors Years of exposure Smoking, age, sex, race Results cancer found twice as high at high as at low particulate levels Found association between particulate disease, and cirrhosis of the liver Found association between soiling and sulfur dioxide and total morbidity and cardiovascular disease morbidity; association between sulfation, dust- fall, and particulates and cardio- vascular disease in females Found association between particulates and cardiovascular mortality In females; association between soiling and sulfation and mortality from respiratory disease, but not lung cancer Found association between pollutant levels esophagus, stomach and bladder, but not lung cancer Found significant association between pol- lutant levels and disease-specific hos- pital admissions and lengths of stay Doubling of soiling index associated with 22-percent increase in admissions for respiratory emergency Found association between particulate and sulfation levels and Incidence of chronic respiratory disease Rates of acute respiratory illness found higher In areas with high nitrogen dioxide levels Found association between exposure to nitrogen dioxide and incidence of bronchitis No association found between nitrogen dioxide and chronic bronchitis 47 ------- TABLE 1 (Concluded) Pollutants Target Population Covariates Results Nitrogen dioxide Photochemical oxidants Photochemical oxidants Carbon monoxide U.S. SMSAs, white males and females over 65 School children in Los Angeles, Calif. Student nurses in Los Angeles, Calif. Los Angeles County Weather, socio- economic factors Not provided Nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, temperature Oxidants, tempera- ture 00 Mortality from hypertensive heart disease increased by about 200 per 100,000; lung cancer increased by 50 percent for males, and 130 percent for females upon increasing nitrogen dioxide levels from 0.03 to 0.08 ppm Found no significant association between oxidant levels and school absenteeism due to respiratory illness Developed thresholds for several health symptoms Found significant association between daily mortality and carbon monoxide, but not oxidants Carbon monoxide Not provided Not provided Found association between carbon monoxide and angina and intermittent claudication Non-specific air pollution Benzo-a-pyrene Oxidants, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide Students at seven California universities U.S. and 19 other countries California Climatic and socioeconomic variables, holi- days , chronic conditions Not provided Not provided Found association between air pollution and excess incidence of respiratory illness An increase of 1 microgram per 1,000 cubic meters in concentration of benzo-a- pyrene was associated with 5 percent increase in mortality from lung cancer Developed a series of dose-effect func- tions on the basis of expert opinions Source: Adapted from Hershaft et al. 1976. ------- An examination of the principal sources of major air pollutants suggests that they are inherent in our industrial-metropolitan life- style and in our cultural dependence upon fossil resources for energy and raw feedstocks. It can be expected that persons most closely associated with industrial activity or metropolitan areas will inhale the greatest quantity of air pollutants and consequently suffer the greatest probability of harm. 4.1.2 General Health Implications Danger to human health associated with air pollution appears to be declining for the population as a whole since air pollution is being abated and populations are migrating from the most polluted areas. Although vulnerability to air pollutants is increasing as the average age of the population increases, greater sensitivity may be more than compensated for by reduced inhalation of pollutants as people migrate from polluted areas and experience less occupational contact with hazardous fumes. On the regional level, some areas will experience increases in air pollution as a result of population increases. With recent declines in fertility and birth rates, regional population growth has increasingly become a function of interregional migration, with the result that many persons in the faster growing regions once lived in regions with larger populations and higher air pollution levels. For the individual, the increasing levels of air pollution in the growing regions represent relatively less hazard. A majority of individuals 49 ------- there are better off in spite of worsening conditions because many of them moved there from areas of relatively greater air pollution. This decrease in personal jeopardy, however, does not extend to those individuals born and raised in growing regions where worsening condi- tions promise relatively more hazard. The long-time residents of regions with worsening conditions may find those changes undesirable and unacceptable, especially since many of them were attracted to the region by clean air when they moved there from a more polluted region 10 or 20 years ago. These early migrants, their offspring and other native-born residents expect cleaner air. Similarly, recent migrants to these regions will also expect cleaner air. The fact that the air is cleaner than that which they breathed in the past in another region will only bolster their expectations and cause them to perceive and evaluate worsening conditions more negatively. Despite relatively less environmental danger than would have been experienced, the remaining hazard may be judged to be less acceptable. 4.1.3 National and Regional Air Pollution Trends 4.1.3.1 National Trends. Between 1975 and 2000, projections of net emissions of major air pollutants, assuming full compliance with existing regulations, indicate increases in the oxides of nitrogen and sulfur and decreases in particulates, hydrocarbons and carbon 50 ------- monoxide as illustrated in Figure 3.* However, for Federal regions (pictured in Figure 4 and distinct from the census divisions dis- cussed above), the pattern will be one of inter-regional hetero- geneity as shown in Table 2. The regions in which air pollution is expected to increase are those experiencing growth in industry and/or population (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980). For example, projected industrial and population growth in the South and West in 2000 can be expected to result in increased air pollutant emission levels compared to 1975 levels. 4.1.3.2 Trends in Air Pollution in Selected Areas. Projected changes in emissions for the five major air pollutants are summarized in Table 3 for the nation and for selected Federal regions. These and related data were introduced above and are discussed in detail in Chapter 4 of Environmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Environmental Protec- tion Agency 1980). The principal assumptions determining the pro- jected trends are summarized in Table 4. Under the assumption of full compliance with existing regula- tions, only the net emissions of the oxides of sulfur and nitrogen are expected to surpass 1975 levels by the year 2000 at the national level. However, by 2000, particulates and hydrocarbons are expected to rise from lows achieved earlier in the period, while carbon monoxide is expected to decline steadily throughout the period. *Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980 High Growth Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) produced for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1980). 51 ------- 1.5 c g CO co 'E UJ o c o 1.0 .5 I Other ]Chemicals and Allied Products jConstruction Materials ^Transportation | Industrial Combustion I Petroleum Refining I Electric Utilities 1975 2000 Particulates 1975 2000 Sulfur Oxides 1975 2000 Nitrogen Oxides 1975 2000 Hydro- Carbons 1975 2000 Carbon Monoxide Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1979. FIGURES NATIONAL TRENDS IN NET EMISSIONS OF MAJOR AIR POLLUTANTS BY SOURCE 1975 AND 2000 52 ------- New England U> New York- New Jersey Puerto Rico Federal Regions I. New England II. New York-New Jersey I. Middle Atlantic IV. Southeast V. Great Lakes VI. South Central VII. Central VIII. Mountain IX. West X. Northwest Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980. Virgin Islands FIGURE4 FEDERAL REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES ------- TABLE 2 REGIONAL TRENDS IN MAJOR AIR POLLUTION EMISSIONS Pollutant Regional Trends Cause Implications Particulates Decline in emissions in Federal Regions II, III, and V, reduction in Region VII. Slow increase in Federal Regions I, VI, VII, IX, and X. Sulfur Oxides Decrease in Federal Regions II, III, V, and IX. Increase in Federal Regions I, IV, VI, VII, VIII, and X. Nitrogen Increase in all Federal Oxides regions. Hydrocarbons Decrease in all Federal regions. Carbon Decrease in all Federal Monoxide regions. Implementation of control devices Decrease in potential of on electric utility and industrial photochemical smog and boilers. health-related effects. Implementation of control tech- nologies which reduce the amount of dust created by the construc- tion materials industry. Increased use of coal in the electric utility industry tends to offset air pollution control technologies• A limited increase in the number of coal-burning facilities and increased compliance with air pollution regulations. Increased number of electric utilities and industrial boilers burning coal as a source of fuel will tend to offset air pollution control requirements. Increased burning of coal and oil by industry. Compliance with transportation emission standards. Compliance with transportation emission standards. Increase in potential for atmospheric acid rain, photochemical smog and health-related effects. Decrease in localized respiratory ailments. Increase in potential for atmospheric acid rain and localized respiratory ailments. Increase in the potential for atmospheric acid rain and photochemical smog. Decrease in the formation of photochemical smog. Reduction in the occurrence of short-term health prob- lems (such as nausea, headaches, dizziness). Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980. ------- Ln TABLE 3 TRENDS IN NET EMISSIONS OF MAJOR AIR POLLUTANTS FOR THE NATION AND SELECTED AREAS Particulates United States Percent of Basea Percent of Totalb Middle Atlantic Region Percent of Base Percent of Total Southeast Region Percent of Base Percent of Total West Central Florida AQCR Percent of Base Percent of Total Mountain Region Percent of Base Percent of Total 1975 100.0 100.0 100.0 17.6 100.0 22.3 100.0 0.3 100.0 3.4 1985 61.0 100.0 40.1 12.2 60.9 21.1 110.7 0.6 93.1 4.4 2000 85.4 100.0 49.8 10.3 97.9 25.4 137.6 0.5 138.3 5.6 Sulfur Oxides 1975 100.0 100.0 100.0 14.8 100.0 21.5 100.0 1.7 100.0 2.0 1985 91.2 100.0 83.3 13.7 96.4 22.9 133.2 2.4 137.7 3.0 2000 105.7 100.0 92.7 13.1 107.0 22.0 136.5 2.1 188.5 3.5 Nitrogen Oxides 1975 100.0 100.0 100.0 11.8 100.0 16.7 100.0 0.8 100.0 2.7 1985 120.6 100.0 106.3 10.2 118.0 16.4 143.2 0.9 197.9 4.0 2000 142.5 100.0 125.3 10.2 143.3 17.0 174.3 1.0 293.3 5.3 Hydrocarbons 1975 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.4 100.0 14.1 100.0 0.7 100.0 3.0 1985 71.8 100.0 63.2 9.3 72.2 14.3 73.0 0.7 79.9 3.1 2000 74.7 100.0 61.9 7.9 74.2 13.9 79.0 0.7 90.3 4.0 Carbon Monoxide 1975 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.7 100.0 17.0 100.0 0.8 100.0 3.3 1985 71.7 100.0 67.5 10.2 71.6 16.9 70.6 0.8 74.1 3.4 2000 56.4 100.0 45.7 8.7 55.0 16.5 57.1 0.8 49.6 2.9 aThe base is the quantity emitted in 1975. total is the quantity for the nation. Source: Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980 High Growth Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) produced for the U.S. Environmental protection Agency (1980). ------- TABLE 4 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS AFFECTING PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE LEVELS AND DISTRIBUTION OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS Major Assumptions Description Substitution of coal for oil and gas Rate at which existing electric utilities are phased out and replaced by new facilities Effect of economic growth or transportation activity Energy development and population and industrial shifts Emissions from fuel combustion (essentially coal burning) are a significant portion of particulate, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides emissions from human activities. Thus, increased use of coal as a utility and boiler fuel will tend to offset environmen- tal improvements from implementation of environmental controls. Under current State Implementation Plan requirements, older electric utilities (existing before 1976) are generally permitted much higher pollutant releases per unit of electricity generated than new facilities. To simulate the effect of slower economic growth on the availability of investment capital for plant expansion, the rate at which older facilities are replaced is lower in the Low Growth Scenario than in the High. Low economic growth, high oil prices and shifts among transportation modes tend to reduce transportation activity and the emis- sions from vehicular travel (e.g., NO. hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide). x> Energy development in the West and South- west, along with a gradual shift in popu- lation and industrial activity to the Sun- belt, will affect regional distribution of emissions over time. Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980. 56 ------- Particulate emissions are expected to climb from roughly 60 percent of 1975 levels in 1985 to 85 percent of 1975 levels by 2000.* These general national projections are reflected in the three selected Federal regions as well. Projected trends for Federal Region IV (Southeast) closely approximate those for the nation, although emissions of particulates are expected to rise in the region to very near their 1975 levels by 2000 after declining to about 60 percent of the 1975 levels in 1985. The Middle Atlantic and Mountain Federal regions afford a study in contrasts. For instance, while the Middle Atlantic Federal Region is projected to show more improvement than the nation as a whole, relative change in the Mountain Federal Region reflects projected worsening conditions. After an initial drop, particulate emissions in the Mountain Federal Region are pro- jected to rise to nearly 140 percent of 1975 levels by 2000; emission levels of sulfur oxides are expected to show no intermediate improve- ment, but to rise steadily to about 190 percent of 1975 levels by 2000; nitrogen oxides emission levels are projected to nearly triple by 2000; and emissions of hydrocarbons, although indicating improve- ment, are projected to return to 90 percent of 1975 levels by 2000. Although the main emphasis of this study, and hence the foregoing analysis, involves trends, or changes in emissions through the year 2000, the relative magnitude of the emissions in these two *Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980, High Growth Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) produced for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1980). 57 ------- regions should be pointed out. Even after improvements in the Middle Atlantic Federal Region and a decline in conditions in the Mountain Federal Region, overall amounts of net emissions in the Middle Atlantic Federal Region will still be greater than in the Mountain Federal Region. The contrasting regional trends reflect demographic and economic growth patterns expected in the Middle Atlantic and Mountain regions in the next two decades. State Implementation Plans (SIPs) are cur- rently in force in some Middle Atlantic states, while the western states (including those in the Mountain Federal Region) are mostly regulated by generally more stringent New Source Performance Stan- dards (NSPS). If it were not for this difference, projected air pollutant emissions trends for the Mountain Federal Region would be higher than they are. The foregoing discussion emphasizes the disparity between regional trends in air emissions, indicating a need to study rela- tively small geographic areas to ascertain potential effects on a population. Moreover, demographic heterogeneity, discussed earlier, justifies studying even smaller areas to gain as homogeneous a sample as possible when determining the probability of harm from air emis- sion hazards for the population. Specific examples of analyses of the interaction of air emission projections and demographic factors follow, one at the Air Quality Control Region (AQCR) level (West Cen- tral Florida) and one at the county level (Salt Lake County, Utah). 58 ------- 4.2 Probability of Harm From Air Pollutant Hazards 4.2.1 Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida, Area The basic assumptions in the methodology demonstrated in this section are that: o One can examine changes in jeopardy in a probabilistic manner in which increased population and increased air emissions both result in an increased probability of harm; and o An increase in the number of vulnerable individuals or in individual vulnerability will also result in an increased probability of harm for the population as a whole. To estimate a change in the probability of harm for a population, one can obtain the product of the ratios of predicted values to baseline values for hazard, the absolute or proportional population at risk and, if available, some measure of vulnerability. Table 5 presents projected proportional changes in net emissions over 1975 levels for 1985 and 2000 for the five major pollutants in the West Central Florida AQCR. Projected emissions for this AQCR were presented in Table 3. Table 5 presents projected proportional changes in the total population for the AQCR for these two years com- pared to 1975, and statewide projections for changes in subpopula- tions under age 5 and age 65 and over (for lack of regional data). In considering the year 2000, emissions of particulates, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides are projected to increase over 1975 lev- els; emissions of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide are expected to decrease compared to 1975 levels; and the total population of the AQCR is expected to increase, with the state's age 65 and over sub- population doubling in 2000 compared to 1975. The ratios for the 59 ------- TABLE 5 TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTION AND POPULATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AIR QUALITY CONTROL REGION Proportion of 1975 Value ina 1985b 2000b Net Air Emissions0 Particulates Sulfur Oxides Nitrogen Oxides Hydrocarbons Carbon Monoxide Population Variables'^ All Persons Under 5 years6 65 Years and Over6 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.6 1.7 1.4 2.1 aThe 1975 value = 1.0. ^Proportions based on projected value for 1985 or 2000 divided by value in 1975. CSEAS data (see Table 3). dU.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b. eState level data. 60 ------- year 2000 are used to calculate the Indices presented in Table 6. These indices are simply the compound product of changes in projected emissions for each of the five major pollutants and projected changes in total population and subpopulations (under age 5 and age 65 and over) from 1975 through 2000. These indices account only for pro- jected changes in pollutant inhalation at the population and subpopu- lation level during this time period. Since a single individual represents unity, the change in inhalation at the individual level is represented by the projected change in emissions for any given pollu- tant. In order to more accurately determine the actual probability of harm at the population or individual level, one would have to con- sider vulnerability to account for differing probabilities of either morbidity or mortality (or both) for each population or subgroup (e.g., total population, elderly, children, smokers, alcohol drink- ers) for each pollutant. The determination of vulnerability is an important issue and a complex task—important because it is a key factor and complex because, for any given population group and pollutant, the relation- ship between vulnerability and contact with a pollutant may be non- linear. Atkins et al. (1980) wrote that there could be two kinds of non-linearity. Obviously, increased pollution levels may cause increasing damage, as expressed in the formula, D = F (P^, SE), where D is a measure of mortality, P is a vector of pollution param- eters and SE is a vector of various socio-economic parameters that 61 ------- TABLE 6 INDICES OF AIR POLLUTION INHALATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AQCR FOR THE YEAR 2000 Air Pollutant (1975 = 1.0*) Population at Risk Particulates Sulfur Oxides Nitrogen Oxides Hydrocarbons Carbon Monoxide All Persons 2.4 Under 5 Years 2.0 65 Years and Over 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.9 2.9 2.4 3.6 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.3 alnhalation indices were calculated as a product of population or subpopulation and net air emissions for the (year 2000):(year 1975) ratios from Table 5. These indices take into account only changes in population or subpopulation size and changes in air pollutant emis- sions and are thus comparative measures only. ------- would relate to vulnerability. Moreover, they wrote that the effects of one pollutant may be exacerbated or attenuated by the presence of another. In addition, there may be thresholds, above or below which vulnerability is not affected by changes in the quantity of pollu- tants inhaled. The indices in Table 6 should be interpreted with these caveats in mind. The data reported in Table 5 suggest dramatic population changes in the West Central Florida AQCR during the remainder of this centu- ry. The subpopulation of persons age 65 and over is likely to double by the year 2000, while total population is expected to increase by a factor of 1.7- Due to projected increases in particulates and in oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, all groups examined will be subject to higher levels of these pollutants in 2000 compared to 1975. In addi- tion, population growth will increase the number of persons inhaling the substances. With the high influx of older migrants to Florida and with the increasing age of the population as a whole, inhalation of these pollutants will increase more for the elderly than for other portions of the population examined. Little change is expected through 2000 in the quantity of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide inhaled by the overall population and the under age 5 subpopulation. The elderly population is expected to experience relatively little change in exposure to carbon monoxide, but an increased exposure to hydrocarbons in 2000 compared to 1975. 63 ------- The compounded probability of harm associated with population growth is an important societal trend, whether for a subpopulation or a total regional population. As the number of persons who inhale and are vulnerable to a pollutant increases, even where the pollution level does not, there should be greater impetus for environmental protection. Society and its affected members bear the costs of ill health. In situations where larger numbers of elderly persons are subjected to larger amounts of air pollution, as is the projected trend in this AQCR, the costs to society and to these older victims will be especially great due to their sensitivity to the harm and public responsibility for their care. In cases such as these, it may be particularly beneficial to apply tighter controls to major sources of hazardous pollutants. 4.2.2 Salt Lake County, Utah The previous subsection illustrated a way to estimate changes in quantities of pollutants inhaled by populations and subpopulations in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area. Given indices of subpopulation vul- nerabilities to pollution-caused harm, the methodology could be extended to estimate potential changes in probability of harm for these subpopulations. A simplistic methodology to predict potential mortality or morbidity would require empirical data on mortality or morbidity rates, some measure of pollution and socioeconomic varia- bles. These factors would be regressed on each other to obtain elasticity measures by which one can correlate amounts of change in 64 ------- mortality or morbidity with specific amounts of change in a given pollution variable. Freeman (1979) reviewed the current literature on the correlations between air pollution and both mortality and morbidity, presenting a detailed evaluation of attempts to derive elasticity measures to relate these factors. This subsection demonstrates the applicability of empirically derived elasticity measures relating mortality to projected air pol- lution trends in a specific geographic area. Salt Lake County, Utah, was chosen for this example as a representative urban county in the Mountain Federal Region and Census Division. The county population is expected to increase by 52 percent over 1975 levels by 1995 (Salt Lake County Council of Governments 1977). Significant growth in industry, commerce and agriculture is expected, along with resultant increases in major air pollutants (Table 7). Lave and Seskin (1970) reported an elasticity of 0.09 for total death rates as a function of changes in particulates (suspended par- ticulates and sulfate particles). This elasticity means that for a 1 percent increase in particulates, one can predict a 0.09 percent increase in total mortality. The merits and problems of this partic- ular elasticity estimate, along with others for subpopulations (infant death rate, neonatal death rate, fetal death rate), are pre- sented by Freeman (1979) and are not at issue here since this sub- section serves only to illustrate a potential method of analysis. Estimates of statewide death rates for Utah, derived for 1975 from 65 ------- TABLE 7 AIR POLLUTION PROJECTIONS SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH Projected Emissions (Thousands of Tons) Pollutant Sulfur Oxides Carbon Monoxide Nitrogen Oxides Particulates Hydrocarbons 1975 363 283 48 201 37 1995 467 416 73 294 59 Percent Increase 29 47 52 46 59 Source: Adapted from Salt Lake County Council of Governments 1977. ------- Bureau of the Census data (U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b) are used as a surrogate for that year's Salt Lake County death rate. As indicated in Table 8, mortality for the total population of Salt Lake County due to particulates in 1995 would be predicted to increase by 4.17 percent over 1975 levels, representing approximately 200 deaths. The above analysis offers a crude estimate to demonstrate a methodology and to indicate areas where more detailed information is needed. For instance, regional and subregional pollutant emission projections and population projections for subgroups that may be particularly vulnerable to pollution (e.g., very young, very old, smokers) are needed in more disaggregated form than is generally available. The elasticities as reviewed by Freeman (1979) represent only the beginning of understanding the relationships between air pollution and both mortality and morbidity. Elasticities expressing these relationships for specific sensitive groups and expressing the potentially synergistic relationships between two or more pol- lutants need to be further understood and refined. Detailed data on population trends, disaggregated to county, AQCR and subpopulation levels, as well as similarly disaggregated emission projections and *April 1970 to July 1980: 78,000 deaths projected for Utah. Assuming a constant number of annual deaths, there would have been 7,800 deaths in 1975. Utah population is expected to grow from 1.059 million in 1970 to 1.321 million in 1980. Assuming a linear growth rate during this period, the 1975 population would have been 1.190 million. The estimated 1975 death rate would then be 6.55 per 1,000 population. 67 ------- TABLE 8 ESTIMATES OF MORTALITY DUE TO PARTICULATE EMISSIONS SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH Parameters Population (Thousands)3 Particulates (Thousands of Tons)3 Total Death Rate (per Thousand)15 1975 522.0 201.0 6.55 1995 791.0 294.0 6.82° Percent Change + 51.5 + 46.3 + 4.17C 00 Death Rate Attributed to Increase in particulate Emissions: 1975 to 1995 (per 1,000) 0.0 0.27 Deaths attributable to increased particulate emissions (compared to 1975) in 1995 = 0.27 deaths per 1,000 population x 791,000 population = 214 deaths aFrom Salt Lake County Council of Governments 1977. ^Calculated from Bureau of the Census Data (U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b). cAssumes 1 percent increase in particulate emissions results in 0.09 percent increase in total mortality (Lave and Seskin 1970). ------- elasticities, would permit more precise models of the pollution impact on various segments of the population for consideration in fine-tuning future regulations. 4.3 Conclusion Section 4.2 presented two somewhat related methodologies to quantitatively predict the potential for harm from pollution hazards in the environment. While the methodologies may lack absolute pre- cision, they can be used in a comparative manner to show relative differences in the probability of harm resulting from different hazards or pollution levels, or to demonstrate differences in the probability of harm from the same hazards or pollution levels, encountered by different population subgroups. With further devel- opment, the methodologies could contribute to major policy delibera- tions. This process can be valuable to the regulatory arena because it can indicate where the greatest benefits, in terms of protecting human health and welfare, can be achieved with minimal regulatory constraints. In addition, it can give some indication of where the greatest potential for detriments to health will be in the future. 69 ------- APPENDIX DATA ON POPULATION TRENDS Two sets of data are presented in this Appendix to support the foregoing analyses. The first part of the Appendix contains national level data on population size, spatial distribution, age distribution and employment. These data are presented to provide a national pro- file of population patterns and trends with environmental risk impli- cations. The second part of the Appendix consists of similar data for the three census divisions examined in the paper (South Atlantic, Middle Atlantic and Mountain divisions) disaggregated to the state level. Each set of data in the following sections is preceded by significant highlights of population patterns and trends. A.1 National Patterns and Trends A.1.1 Population Gro-frth (Tables A-l and A-2) o One of the most significant population trends in the United States since the middle of the 1960s has been the slowing growth rate. This has been attributed primarily to a decline in the birth rate rather than to any major change in the death rate or immigration. o Total population is projected to reach approximately 263 mil- lion by the turn of the century and to continue rising to about 312 million by 2040, assuming a fertility rate of 2.1.* *Census Bureau projections are based on fertility rates ranging from 1.7 to 2.7- Projections based on a 2.1 rate were selected for use here, based on personal communication with a Bureau staff member who said actual population growth has most closely tracked this set of projections in recent years. Future change in population growth would justify using a different set of the Bureau's frequently updated projections. 71 ------- TABLE A-l U.S. POPULATION GROWTH RATE Year 1790 1840 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Population (Millions) 3.9 17.1 63.1 76.1 92.4 106.5 123.1 132.6 152.3 180.7 204.9 222.8 245.1 262.5 278.8 294.0 304.3 312.0 Average Annual Rate of Change (Percent) 3.0 2.65 1.88 1.94 1.42 1.46 0.74 1.38 1.71 1.26 0.84 0.95 0.69 0.60 0.53 0.34 0.25 Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1977. 72 ------- TABLE A-2 COMPONENTS OF U.S. POPULATION GROWTH (Thousands) Year 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Net Changea 1,128 853 1,221 1,462 2,486 2,925 2,901 2,315 2,227 1,582 2,155 2,284 2,068 1,706 1,550 Birthsb 2,618 2,377 2,570 2,873 3,645 4,128 4,307 3,801 3,739 3,232 3,926 4,172 4,072 3,832 3,792 Deaths0 1,419 1,421 1,432 1,549 1,468 1,537 1,708 1,830 1,927 2,050 2,171 2,288 2,404 2,526 2,642 Net Civilian Immigration 113 -2 77 162 299 337 327 373 438 400 400 400 400 400 400 Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate. alncludes estimates of overseas admissions into and discharges from the armed forces and the error of closure between censuses. ^Adjusted for underregistration through March 1970. cDeaths occurring in the United States plus esti- mated deaths occurring in the armed forces abroad except for 1930 through 1939 when the estimates are for the resident population of the conterminous United States only. Infant deaths adjusted for underregis- tration through March 1960. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1977. 73 ------- A. 1.2 Age Structure (Table A-3) o Projections indicate an aging trend for the national popula- tion. While the percent of population under age 5 is expected to remain about the same, the percent 65 and over will increase significantly until it levels off at approxi- mately 18 percent in 2030. This compares to the 1970 level of about 9.8 percent. A. 1.3 Labor Force (Tables A-4 and A-5) o Female participation in the labor force has been increasing significantly in all age categories. This is in contrast to male participation which has declined for those age 45 and over. The influx of women into the work force began with those beyond childbearing age, followed by younger married women without children. More recently, many women with school-age children have entered the labor market. o There has been a general shift away from farm related employ- ment toward professional and administrative jobs. Females are capturing a larger share of these professional positions than in the past and they are entering the traditionally male dominated industries of mining, construction and manufac- turing . A.1.4 Regional Growth and Migration (Tables A-6 and A-7) o Although population growth in the nation is expected to remain low for some time, there will be significant regional variations in growth, with some census regions growing more rapidly than others. Specifically, the South and West are expected to grow more rapidly than the Northeast and North Central census regions. (The census regions, as distinct from census divisions discussed in Section 3, are pictured in Figure A-l). o The average annual rate of growth between 1975 and 2000 is projected to be highest in the South Census Region, followed by the West. The lowest growth rate is expected in the Northeast Census Region. o Growth in the South and West is attributed mainly to the Sun- belt phenomenon. In addition, the West will experience growth related to energy resource development. o Net migration is a key factor in the variation of regional growth patterns. Between 1970 and 1975, the South and West 74 ------- TABLE A-3 AGE COMPOSITION OF THE U.S. POPULATION Year 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Median Age 22.9 24.1 25.3 26.5 29.0 30.2 29.5 28.1 30.2 32.8 35.5 36.6 37.0 38.0 37.8 37.8 0-17 40.3 38.0 37.3 34.9 30.5 31.1 35.8 34.0 27.9 26.6 26.5 24.6 24.6 24.1 24.0 24.3 Percent of Population 18-64 65 55.6 57.7 58.1 59.7 62.7 60.8 55.0 56.2 60.9 61.1 61.3 62.8 59.8 57.5 58.2 58.2 and Over 4.1 4.3 4.6 5.4 6.8 8.2 9.2 9.8 11.2 12.3 12.2 12.7 15.6 18.3 17.8 17.6 Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate. Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. Source: Adapted from U.S. House of Representatives 1978. 75 ------- TABLE A-4 U.S. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES Female Participation Rate (Percent) Age Group 1947 1977 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and over 44.9 32.0 36.3 32.7 24.3 8.1 65.0 49.0 59.2 55.4 41.3 8.3 Male Participation Rate (Percent) Age Group 1947 1977 45-54 95.5 91.1 55-64 89.6 74.0 65 and over 47.8 19.7 Note: Based on total labor force. Source: Adapted from Sternlieb 1978. 76 ------- TABLE A-5 U.S. EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION AND SEX Employment (Millions) 1972 Occupation White-Collar Workers Professional, Technical and Kindred Managers and Administrators, Except Farm Sales Workers Clerical and Kindred Workers Blue-Collar Workers Craft and Kindred Workers Operatives, Except Transport Transport Equipment Operatives Laborers, Except Farm Farm Workers Farmers and Farm Managers Farm Laborers and Supervisors Service Workers Service Workers, Except Private Household Private Household Workers All Occupations Male 20.18 6.96 6.62 3.13 3.47 23.80 10.42 6.35 3.08 3.95 2.53 1.59 0.94 4.13 4.09 0.03 50.63 Female 18.92 4.50 1.41 2.23 10.78 4.78 0.38 3.99 0.13 0.27 0.54 0.10 0.44 6.84 5.43 1.40 31.07 1978 Male 22.63 8.16 7.74 3.29 3.44 25.77 11.69 6.55 3.28 4.24 2.29 1.35 0.94 4.80 4.78 0.03 55.49 Female 24.57 6.08 2.36 2.66 13.46 5.77 0.70 4.32 0.26 0.49 0.51 0.13 0.38 8.04 6.90 1.14 38.88 Note: Civilian noninstitutional population. Apparent data discrepancies due to rounding. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1978. 77 ------- 00 Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1972. FIGURE A-1 CENSUS REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES ------- TABLE A-6 REGIONAL MIGRATION FOR THE U.S. POPULATION Percent of Those Who Moved Between Regions by Region of Destination, 1975-1978 Region of Origin U.S. Migrants Northeast North Central South West Total Elderly U.S. Migrantsb Northeast North Central South West Total Total Number of Migrants3 1975-1978 (Thousands) 5,134 7,593 9,282 6,125 28,134 295 309 317 255 1,176 Approximate Number Who Moved Between Regions 1975-1978 1,576.14 2,171.6 1,865.68 1,525.13 7,146.04 112.99 88.07 52.94 47.94 302.23 Northeast — 11.4 23.8 12.0 12.3 — 6.8 32.1 12.5 9.6 North Central 17.7 — 37.8 32.7 20.8 7.1 — 43.4 35.4 15.9 South 57.3 52.6 — 55.3 40.3 77.0 46.6 — 52.1 50.7 West 25.0 36.3 38.4 — 26.6 15.9 46.6 24.5 — 23.7 — Represents zero or rounds to zero aAll persons age 3 or over who moved across at least a county line. ^Migrants age 65 or over. Source: Adapted from Biggar 1979. ------- TABLE A-7 REGIONAL POPULATION AND RATE OF GROWTH Population (Millions) Region Northeast New England Middle Atlantic North Central East North Central West North Central South South Atlantic East South Central West South Central West Mountain Pacific U.S. Total 1975 49.5 12.2 37.3 57.6 40.9 16.7 68.0 33.7 13.5 20.9 37.9 9.6 28.3 213.0 2000 53.2 14.4 38.7 63.3 44.4 18.9 92.4 47.9 16.7 27.8 51.0 14.7 36.3 259.9 Percent of 1975 23.3 5.7 17.5 27.1 19.2 7.8 31.9 15.8 6.3 9.8 17.8 4.5 13.3 100.0 Population 2000 20.5 5.6 14.9 24.4 17.1 7.3 35.6 18.5 6.4 10.7 19.6 5.7 14.0 100.0 Average Annual Rate of Change (Percent) 1975 to 2000 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.7 0.9 0.8 Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate. Discrepancies between this table and Table A-l due to data differences in the source. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b. 80 ------- gained population at the expense of the Northeast and North Central census regions. A.1.5 Local Migration (Table A-8) o In addition to these general regional variations, there have been significant changes in urban/rural population shifts. The movement from rural to metropolitan areas that predomin- ated during the 1960s has undergone a noticeable reversal resulting in what has generally been referred to as the "rural renaissance." o The average annual rate of change between 1970 and 1978 was higher for nonmetropolitan areas (1.4 percent) than metro- politan areas (0.5 percent). The number of persons living in central cities actually declined during that time period. A. 2 Division Profiles Population profiles are presented in this Appendix for the South Atlantic, Middle Atlantic and Mountain divisions to provide back- ground for the comparative discussion that was presented in Section 3. Brief highlights of the data are followed by detailed tabulations for each region. A.2.1 South Atlantic Census Division A.2.1.1 Population Growth (Table A-9) o Population is expected to more than double in the South Atlantic Census Division during the last half of this century, rising from approximately 21 million in 1950 to almost 50 million by the year 2000. o The division's rate of growth will slow slightly from 19.1 percent during the 1970s to 16.9 and 12.2 percent for the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. o Florida is expected to experience the largest increase in population, reaching over 14 million by the end of the cen- tury. This compares to about 2.8 million in 1950 and approximately 4.6 million today. The annual rate of growth will decline from the current decade's 27.1 percent to 17.9 percent between 1990 and the year 2000. 81 ------- TABLE A-8 U.S. POPULATION BY METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS Population (Millions) Area Metropolitan Areas In Central Cities Outside Central Cities Nonmetropolitan Areas Total 1970 137.1 62.9 74.2 62.8 199.8 1978 143.0 59.7 83.3 70.4 213.5 Population Change (Millions) 1970-1978 6.0 -3.2 9.1 7.7 13.6 Percent Change 1960-1970 16.6 6.5 26.7 6.8 13.3 1970-1978 4.4 -5.0 12.3 12.2 6.8 Average Percent 1960-1970 1.5 0.6 2.4 0.7 1.3 Annual Change 1970-1978 0.5 -0.6 1.5 1.4 0.8 Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1978. ------- TABLE A-9 POPULATION AND GROWTH BY DECADE: SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION CO u> South Atlantic Population Division 1950 Delaware Maryland District of Columbia Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Division Total Note: Population ^Figures for 1980 the United States 318 2,343 802 3,319 2,006 4,062 2,117 3,445 2,771 21,182 Percent Percent Change Population Change Population 1950-60 1960 1960-70 1970 40.5 32.3 -4.8 19.5 -7.2 12.2 12.5 14.5 78.7 22.6 forecast assumes z 2. were taken , 1979. from Table 446 22.8 3,101 26.5 3 764 -1.0 3,967 17.2 4 1,860 -6.2 1 4,556 11.5 5 2,383 8.7 2 3,943 16.4 4 "4,952 37.1 6 25,972 18.1 30 1 fertility rate and 1970 1 in Current Population bFigures were taken from Table 3 in Current Population Reports, 548 ,922 757 ,648 ,744 ,082 ,591 ,590 ,789 ,671 to 1975 Reports , No. 796. Percent Percent Change Population Change 1970-80 1980a 1980-90 9.5 11.0 -9.5 14.8 5.7 13.9 16.7 15.5 41.5 19.1 migration No. 796; 600 4,353 685 5,334 1,844 5,790 3,025 5,302 9,607 36,540 trends. 1950 to 8.5 13.2 -5.0 14.7 7.0 13.5 15.5 15.7 27.1 16.9 Average Annual Percent Rate of Change Population Change Population 1975-2000° 1990 1990-2000 2000 (Percent) 651 4,928 651 6,117 1,973 6,573 3,494 6,133 12,207 42,727 5.8 10.3 -3.7 10.6 5.2 9.9 11.4 11.5 17.9 12.2 Apparent data discrepancies due 1970 are from Tables 10 and 13 in 689 5,436 627 6,768 2,076 7,226 3,893 6,840 14,394 47,949 to rounding. Statistical 6.9 11.0 -5.2 12.1 5.7 11.2 12.8 12.9 21.1 Abstract of Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b. ------- o Maryland and Delaware ranked second and third, respectively, in rate of growth until 1970. Growth is expected to slow in these two states for the remainder of the century, however, and all of the southern states of the division will overtake those two in growth rate between now and the year 2000. o District of Columbia statistics reflect a decline in popula- tion in every decade with the largest decrease of 9.5 percent occurring between 1970 and 1980. The only other jurisdiction that lost population was West Virginia in the 1950s and 1960s. o Average annual rates of change between 1975 and 2000 range from minus 5.2 percent in the District of Columbia to plus 21.1 percent in Florida. A.2.1.2 Components of Growth (Table A-10) o Population growth in the division was primarily a result of natural increase (births minus deaths) during the 1960s. Since that time, however, growth attributed to positive net migration has exceeded natural increase. o Net migration will continue to be the predominant growth com- ponent throughout the century even though the positive rate is projected to decrease slightly. o The number of deaths is projected to increase in each decade between 1960 and the year 2000, and to range from about 1.3 million in the 1960s to a high of approximately 4.7 million between 1990 and 2000. o Population growth in Florida can be attributed primarily to positive net migration in every decade that far exceeds the rate in any other state. o Deaths are expected to slightly exceed births in Florida dur- ing the 1990s. Total population will continue to increase, however, since positive net migration will amount to approx- imately 2.2 million people. o A declining population is expected in every decade in the Dis- trict of Columbia between 1960 and the year 2000 since nega- tive net migration exceeds natural increase. o Net migration in West Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina will be positive throughout the remainder of the century after a negative rate during the 1960s. 84 ------- 00 TABLE A-10 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE BY DECADE: SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION South Atlantic Division Delaware Maryland District of Columbia Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Division Total April 1, Births 109 740 182 909 339 1,032 573 975 1,107 5,965 1960-April 1, 1970a Deaths 45 303 89 369 190 412 216 379 596 2,598 Net Mig.c 38 385 -100 141 -265 -94 -149 51 1,326 1,332 April 1 Births 92.6 612.3 114.8 793.6 289.6 906.8 511.7 900.4 1,192.8 5,414.6 ., 1970- July 1, 1980b Deaths 50.8 343.7 81.5 420.1 202.7 481.3 247.2 440.8 904.3 3,172.4 Net Mig. 9.7 160.1 -105.2 309.0 13.0 280.5 169.3 254.2 2,527.3 3,617.9 July 1 Births 108.4 764.9 106.5 969.5 303.8 1,019.0 576.5 1,041.5 1,590.6 6,480.7 [, 1980- July 1, 1990 Deaths 56.5 393.2 71.5 488.8 210.3 559.3 288.1 497.3 1,279.4 3,840.4 Net Mig. -0.5 203.5 -68.8 302.2 34.9 323.1 181.1 287.4 2,284.5 3,547.4 July Births 101.9 764.2 97.2 969.1 280.4 997.5 560.6 1,036.3 1,686.4 6,489.6 1, 1990- July 1, 2000 Deaths 64.5 459.9 69.6 584.4 228.6 665.8 346.3 578.9 1,712.0 4,706.0 Net Mig. 0.8 204.5 -55.4 270.8 51.4 321.6 184.7 249.0 2,212.5 3,439.9 Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. aData from Table 12 in Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1979. ^Data computed from Table 4 in Current Population Repojrts^ No. 796. Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends. cComprises both net immigration from abroad and net interdivlsional or interstate migration according to the area shown. Includes movements of persons in the armed forces. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce I979b, 1979c. ------- A.2.1.3 Age Composition (Table A-ll) o Division statistics generally reflect an aging population with the percentage of total population under age 5 declining slightly from a high of 8.4 percent in 1970 to 6.5 percent in the year 2000. o Elderly persons will comprise an increasing proportion of the division's population, reaching a high of 13.5 percent in 2000. This compares to a low of 9.4 percent in 1970. o Florida has the highest proportion of elderly of any state in the division. The percentage of total population age 65 and over increases every decade and ranges from 14.5 percent in 1970 to 19.3 percent in the year 2000. o In absolute numbers, the elderly population in Florida reaches approximately 2.8 million in the year 2000. This compares with 1 million elderly in the state in 1970. o The proportion of total population age 65 and over in Maryland and the District of Columbia remains relatively constant over time. o Statistics for all other states reflect percentage increases in elderly population in every decade between 1970 and 2000, but increases are considerably less than in Florida. A. 2.1.4 Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Population (Table A-12) o Population increased in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of the division between 1960 and 1977. o Metropolitan areas experienced more rapid growth during the 1960s than they did between 1970 and 1977. o Conversely, nonmetropolitan areas grew faster between 1970 and 1977 than they did during the previous decade. o Florida recorded the highest gain in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas with increases of 3.1 million and 500,000, respectively, between 1960 and 1977. o West Virginia's population declined in metropolitan and non- metropolitan areas in the 1960s, but increased slightly in both kinds of areas between 1970 and 1977. 86 ------- TABLE A-ll PROJECTIONS OF AGE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION BY DECADE: SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION 00 South Atlantic Division 1970 Delaware Maryland District of Columbia Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Division Total 1980 Delaware Maryland District of Columbia Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Division Total Under Number 48.5 344.6 59.8 391.7 138.3 437.5 235.8 421.9 501.6 2,579.7 44.1 298.0 45.5 377.0 131.2 422.3 238.8 420.5 607.3 2,584.7 5 Years Percent of Total 8.8 8.8 7.9 8.4 7.9 8.6 9.1 9.2 7.4 8.4 7.3 6.9 6.6 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.9 7.9 6.3 7.1 5-14 Number 117.0 298.0 128.8 930.4 335.7 1,016.7 552.3 952.0 1,250.1 5,581.0 91.9 644.1 95.6 801.4 282.5 907.5 501.9 886.0 1,297.0 5,507.9 Years Percent of Total 21.3 7.6 17.0 20.0 19.2 20.0 21.3 20.8 18.4 18.2 15.3 14.8 14.0 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.6 16.7 13.5 15.1 15-64 Number 339.0 2,896.1 497.8 2,962.2 1,076.5 3,218.2 1,612.8 2,848.6 4,054.2 19,505.4 406.6 3,020.3 470.9 3,655.5 1,198.9 3,878.2 2,009.0 3,500.8 6,036.4 24,177.4 Years Percent of Total 61.8 73.8 65.8 63.7 61.7 63.3 62.3 62.1 59.7 63.6 67.8 69.4 68.3 68.5 65.0 67.0 66.4 66.0 62.8 66.2 65 Years Number 43.6 385.2 70.3 367.1 193.7 412.0 189.9 365.4 985.5 3,012.7 57.0 390.2 72.8 500.0 231.5 582.3 275.0 494.5 1,666.5 4,269.8 and Over Percent of Total 7.9. 9.8 9.2 7.9 11.1 8.1 7.3 8.0 14.5 9.4 9.5 9.0 10.6 9.4 12.6 10.1 9.1 9.3 17.3 11.7 Total 548.1 3,923.9 756.7 4,651.4 1,744.2 5,084.4 2,590.8 4,587.9 6,791.4 30,678.1 599.6 4,352.6 684.8 5,333.9 1,844.1 5,790.3 3,024.7 5,301.8 9,607.2 36,539.8 ------- TABLE A-ll (Concluded) 00 00 South Atlantic Division 1990 Delaware Maryland District of Columbia Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Division Total 2000 Delaware Maryland District of Columbia Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Division Total Under Number 53.7 385.2 46.8 476.9 147.0 504.2 283.6 513.7 814.8 3,225.9 48.6 366.0 42.3 452.7 132.9 478.1 267.8 493.0 815.3 3,096.7 5 Years Percent of Total 8.2 7.8 7.2 7.8 7.5 7.7 8.1 8.4 6.7 7.5 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.2 5.7 6.5 5-14 Number 96.9 710.2 83.5 871.2 286.2 953.1 538.3 958.7 1,547.5 6,045.6 105.7 812.3 81.1 981.6 299.8 1,042.4 585.0 1,064.6 1,818.6 6,791.1 Years Percent of Total 14.9 14.4 12.8 14.2 14.5 14.5 15.4 15.6 12.7 14.1 15.3 14.9 12.9 14.5 14.4 14.4 15.0 15.6 12.6 14.2 15-64 Number 427.4 3,329.5 449.0 4,106.6 1,269.1 4,361.3 2,305.1 4,049.2 7,505.8 27,803.0 454.4 3,703.4 437.5 4,583.0 1,360.2 4,846.1 2,615.5 4,590.8 8,984.4 31,575.3 Years Percent of Total 65.6 67.6 69.0 67.1 64.3 66.4 66.0 66.0 61.5 65.1 65.9 68.1 69.8 67.7 65.5 67.1 67.2 67.1 62.4 65.8 65 Years Number 73.1 502.8 71.7 662.0 270.3 754.4 367.2 611.8 2,338.8 5,652.1 80.7 554.6 66.2 750.9 282.8 859.7 424.9 691.4 2,775.5 6,486.7 and Over Percent of Total 11.2 10.2 11.0 10.8 13.7 11.5 10.5 10.0 19.2 13.2 11.7 10.2 10.6 11.1 13.6 11.9 10.9 10.1 19.3 13.5 Total 651.1 4,927.7 651.0 6,116.7 1,972.6 6,573.0 3,494.2 6,133.4 12,206.9 42,726.6 689.4 5,436.3 627.1 6,768.2 2,075.7 7,226.3 3,893.2 6,839.8 14,393.8 47,949.8 Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b. ------- TABLE A-12 SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION POPULATION BY METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS 00 Metropolitan South Atlantic Division Delaware Maryland Percent Change a 1960 1960-70 0 2 .3 .6 District of Columbia 0.8 Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Division Total Represents zero Note: Apparent data a April bJuly 2 0 1 1 2 4 15 or rounds .4 .7 .9 .0 .0 .2 .9 to zero. discrepancies due 25.5 29.9 -1.0 26.9 -2.6 22.2 18.4 26.6 39.1 26.9 to rounding. a 1970 0.4 3.4 0.8 3.1 0.7 2.3 1.2 2.6 5.9 20.2 Percent Change 1970-77 3.3 4.6 -9.5 8.9 0.9 9.1 13.6 10.4 23.6 11.9 b 1977 0.4 3.5 0.7 3.3 0.7 2.5 1.4 2.9 7.3 22.6 a 1960 0.1 0.5 0 1.5 1.2 2.7 1.3 1.9 0.7 10.0 Nonmetropolitan Percent Change 1960-70 16. 9. — 3. -8. 4. 1. 5. 25. 4. 9 6 - 0 4 2 3 2 8 4 a 1970 0.2 0.6 0 1.6 1.1 2.8 1.4 2.0 0.9 10.4 Percent Change 1970-77 13.2 10.6 11.1 9.5 8.0 8.9 9.2 31.7 11.2 t 1977 0.2 0.6 0 1.7 1.2 3.0 1.5 2.2 1.2 11.6 Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979c. ------- A.2.1.5 Labor Force Participation (Table A-13) o The female labor force of the division increased by 3.3 mil- lion workers between 1960 and 1976 compared to a male labor force gain of 2.6 million over the same time period. o Female participation increased rapidly, with the rate rising from 35.8 percent in 1960 to over 50 percent in 1976. Male participation increased more slowly, rising from 70.4 percent to 76.1 percent for those years. o West Virginia had the lowest labor force participation rates for both males and females throughout the time period. o The District of Columbia experienced significantly higher female participation rates than any of the states, exceeding the 50 percent level since 1960. o Florida's participation rates for both males and females were lower than those of the division in general throughout the time period. o This was also true for Virginia in 1960 and 1970, but rates in that state exceeded regional levels in 1976. o With the exception of Florida, Virginia and West Virginia, all states recorded higher male and female participation rates than the division in general. A.2.1.6 Employment by Occupation (Table A-14) o Gains in the percent of total employment by occupational categories between 1970 and 1976 were highest for managers and administrators, followed by the professional and tech- nical category. o Percentage declines were recorded in the division for oper- ation, sales, craft and farm workers for those same years. o Managers and administrators gained in the percent of total employment in all states except Delaware. o Conversely, percentage declines were recorded in all states for sales workers, craft workers and operations between 1970 and 1976. o The professional and technical category declined as a per- centage of the total only in Delaware and West Virginia. 90 ------- TABLE A-13 POPULATION, LABOR FORCE AND PARTICIPATION RATE BY SEX: SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION Population3 Labor Force" Participation Kate (Percent) South Atlantic Division 1960 Delaware Maryland District of Columbia Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Division Total Male 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.4 0.6 1.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 8.8 Female 0.2 1.1 0.3 1.4 0.7 1.6 0.8 1.4 1.8 9.2 Male 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 6.1 Female 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 3.3 Male 75.5 75.4 73.2 68.2 67.8 71.2 71.7 71.7 68.0 70.4 Female 36.1 36.0 51.8 33.8 24.2 37.4 38.2 37.5 34.7 35.8 1970 Delaware 0.2 0.2 Maryland 1.3 1.4 District of Columbia 0.2 0.3 Virginia 1.6 1.6 West Virginia 0.6 0.6 North Carolina 1.7 1.8 South Carolina 0.8 0.9 Georgia 1.5 1.6 Florida 2.3 2.6 Division Total 10.2 11.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.4 1.2 0.6 1.1 7.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.7 1.0 4.7 76.8 75.7 70.9 67.9 66.7 71.3 69.6 72.6 65.2 69.8 43.1 44.2 55.9 42.1 29.4 46.4 45.2 44.6 39.0 42.6 1976 Delaware Maryland District of Columbia Virginia West Virginia North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Florida Division Total 0.2 1.4 0.2 1.6 0.6 1.8 0.9 1.6 3.0 11.4 0.2 1.5 0.3 1.9 0.7 2.1 1.0 1.8 3.4 13.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 1.3 0.5 1.5 0.7 1.2 2.0 8.7 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 6.6 80.2 82.8 75.0 79.6 72.0 79.2 79.6 76.4 68.6 76.1 50.2 53.9 58.8 52.6 38.0 55.3 51.6 51.9 45.9 50.5 Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. Discrepancies between this table and Table A-14 due to discrepancies in the source. aPersons age 14 and over for 1960; age 16 and over for 1970 and 1976. bCivilian labor force. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a. 91 ------- TABLE A-14 OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS: SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION Total Employed (Thousands) by Occupation and Kindred Workers Managers and Adminis- Sales Workers Clerical Workers Craft and Kindred Workers Operatives, Including Transport Farm Workers Service Workers Total Employed (Thousands) by Occupation Professional, Technical and Kindred Workers Managers and Adminis- Sales Workers Clerical Workers Craft and Kindred Workers Transport Laborers, Except Farm Farm Workers Service Workers South 1970 11,461 14.0 6.9 17.1 14.2 Atlantic 1976 14,048 14.9 5.9 17.3 12.9 18.4 16.1 3.1 2.8 12.9 West 1970 550 12.5 6.1 14.0 17.4 21.6 6.2 1.6 12.8 13.8 Virginia 1976 679 11.8 5.5 13.9 17.1 18.5 7.8 1.8 13.6 Delaw 1970 221 18.3 6.6 17.9 14.6 15.9 2.1 12.5 are 1976 242 17.8 5.4 17.4 12.8 13.2 1.7 14.9 North Carolina 1970 i,984 11.0 6.0 14.0 14.5 26.3 5.0 4.6 11.0 1976 2,432 11.8 5.0 14.2 12.9 23.6 6.3 3.9 13.3 Maryla 1970 1,539 18.9 7.0 21.2 13.7 13.4 1.4 11.7 nd 1976 i,826 19.9 5.5 20.5 11.9 11.5 0.9 13.2 South Carolina 1970 955 11.5 6.0 12.7 15.2 26.1 5.5 3.6 12.3 1976 i,156 11.5 5.8 14.1 15.0 23.2 5.9 3.6 11.2 District of 1970 335 19.1 3.6 28.5 7.2 8.9 0.3 21.0 Ceor 1970 1,747 12.0 6.9 16.4 13.9 20.9 5.2 3.6 12.8 Columbia 1976 308 23.2 2.9 27.4 7.1 6.5 0.6 18.7 gia 1976 2,033 14.1 6.4 16.7 11.5 17.6 5.7 3.4 13.4 Virglt 1970 1,714 16.0 6.5 17.9 14.2 17.2 2.7 12.1 Flor 1970 2,426 13.8 8.7 17.9 14.5 12.3 5.2 3.2 15.0 lia 1976 2,133 17.0 5.0 17.4 13.9 14.4 3.2 13.4 Ida 1976 3,238 14.3 7.4 18.9 12.8 11. 1 5.0 2.5 15.3 Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a. ------- o Clerical workers gained in percent of total in the southern states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, but declined in the remaining states over the period. A.2.1.7 Employment by Industry (Table A-15) o The most significant gain in percent of total employment by an industrial category in the division was made by the pro- fessional and related services category, followed by whole- sale and retail trade between 1970 and 1976. o Finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) as well as business and repair services recorded gains in the states, while all other industrial categories declined during the six-year time period. o In all South Atlantic Division states except West Virginia, the percent of total employed in professional and related services rose between 1970 and 1976. o While employment in wholesale and retail trade increased in the division as a whole, Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia each experienced a decline in that category's percent of total employment. o Agriculture, forestry and fisheries declined in Virginia, West Virginia and South Carolina, while increasing in the region in general. o The business and repair services category increased its share of total employment in every state except Delaware between 1970 and 1976. A.2.2 Mountain Census Division A.2.2.1 Population Growth (Table A-16) o Population in the Mountain Census Division is projected to almost triple during the last half of the century, increasing from the 1950 level of approximately 5 million to about 14.7 million in the year 2000. The rate of increase is expected to slow, however, declining from the 29.4 percent of the 1970s to 20.7 percent in the 1980s and 13.9 percent in the 1990s. 93 ------- TABLE A-15 INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYED PERSONS SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION South Atlantic Total Employed (Thousands) Percent Distribution by Industry Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation, Communication and Public Utilities Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Business and Repair Services Personal, Entertainment and Recreation Services Professional and Related Services Public Administration 1970 11,461 3.8 0.8 7.2 24.0 6.6 19.3 4.5 2.9 6.8 16.3 7.6 1976 14,048 3. 0. 6. 21. 6. 20. 5. 3. 5. 19. 7. 6 7 4 6 2 3 2 5 9 2 5 Delaware 1970 211 2.6 0.1 7.6 29.6 5.9 19.1 4.4 3.6 5.1 17.3 4.4 1976 242 2.1 7.0 26.8 5.8 21.5 4.5 2.5 6.2 18.6 5.0 Maryland 1970 1,539 1.9 0.2 6.6 19.4 6.9 19.1 5.1 3.5 4.7 19.0 13.5 1976 1,826 1.5 0.1 6.2 15.8 6.0 18.9 5.4 4.2 5.4 21.9 14.5 District of 1970 335 0.5 0.1 4.8 4.8 6.2 14.3 5.1 3.8 9.8 23.3 27.1 Columbia 1976 308 0.3 3.9 4.5 4.9 14.0 5.5 5.8 7.1 26.9 27.3 Virginia 1970 1,714 3.3 1.0 7.4 22.4 6.7 18.0 4.4 2.6 5.9 16.9 11.4 1976 3,133 3.9 0.4 7.0 20.2 6.8 17.3 4.6 3.0 6.0 19.9 10.7 ------- TABLE A-15 (Concluded) Ui Total Employed (Thousands) Percent Distribution by Industry Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation, Communication and Public Utilities Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Business and Repair Services Personal, Entertainment and Recreation Services Professional and Related Services Public Administration West 1970 550 2. 8. 7. 23. 7. 19. 2. 2. 15. 17. 4. Virginia 1 8 3 4 9 1 7 0 5 5 1 1976 679 2.2 9.8 7.3 19.1 7.0 20.1 3.5 2.1 5.7 17.5 5.6 North Carolina 1970 1,984 5.2 0.2 6.7 35.4 5.5 17.5 3.5 2.1 6.0 14.3 3.5 1976 2,432 4. 0. 6. 32. 4. 18. 4. 3. 3. 17. 4. 4 2 0 8 7 8 9 0 9 1 1 South Carolina 1970 955 4.2 0.2 7.4 36.2 4.8 16.7 3.3 2.0 7.1 14.4 3.9 1976 1,156 4. 0. 6. 35. 4. 17. 4. 2. 5. 16. 4. 5 2 2 0 8 3 0 8 1 1 1 1970 1,747 4. 0. 6. 36. 7. 19. 4. 2. 7. 14. 5. Georgia 3 4 8 2 0 6 6 7 1 6 8 1976 2,033 4.1 0.5 6.0 24.5 6.6 21.3 4.8 3.3 6.1 17.7 5.4 Florida 1970 2,426 4.6 0.4 8.5 13.6 7.7 23.5 6.0 3.8 9.0 16.8 5.6 1976 3,238 3.9 0.2 6.9 12.2 7.1 25.2 6.7 4.1 7.6 20.7 5.3 Represents zero or rounds to zero. Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a. ------- TABLE A-16 POPULATION AND GROWTH BY DECADE: MOUNTAIN DIVISION Mountain Population Division Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total Note: Population aFigures for 1980 1950 591 589 291 1,325 681 750 689 160 5,075 Percent Percent Change Population Change Population 1950-60 14.2 13.3 13.6 32.4 39.6 73.7 29.3 78.2 35.1 forecast assumes a 2.1 were taken from Table 1960 1960-70 1970 675 2.9 667 6.8 330 0.7 1,754 25.8 2 951 6.8 1 1,302 36.0 1 891 18.9 1 285 71.3 6,855 20.8 8 fertility rate and 1970 1 in Current Population 694 713 332 ,207 ,016 ,771 ,059 489 ,282 to 1975 Reports , Average Annual Percent Percent Percent Rate of Change Change Population Change Population Change Population 1975-2000b 1970-80 14.0 25.2 22.9 27.9 22.9 45.0 24.7 35.4 29.4 migration No. 796; 1980a 791 893 408 2,823 1,249 2,568 1,321 662 10,715 trends. 1950 to 1980-90 1990 1990-2000 2000 (Percent) 13.0 18.8 16.2 20.8 17.4 27.0 18.9 20.8 20,7 894 1,061 474 3,409 1,466 3,261 1,571 800 12,936 4.3 12.6 11.2 14.2 11.6 17.2 13.0 13.5 13.9 Apparent data discrepancies due 1970 are from Tables 10 and 13 in 477 1,195 527 3,892 1,636 3,822 1,775 908 14,732 to rounding. Statistical Abstract 10.6 15.0 13.2 16.5 13.9 20.8 15.2 16.6 of the United States, 1979. ^Figures were taken from Table 3 in Current Population Reports, No. 796. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c. ------- o Arizona is expected to record the most rapid increase of any state in the division over the 50-year period, followed by Nevada. The population projected for the year 2000 is more than five times the 1950 level for both states. o Colorado ranks third in terms of overall population increase and is projected to make considerable advances during the 1980s and 1990s. Growth during those decades amounts to 20.8 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively. This results in Colorado ranking second only to Arizona in percent change between 1980 and 2000. o Colorado, Arizona and Nevada are projected to gain population more rapidly than the division as a whole between now and the end of the century. o Montana statistics reflect the lowest growth rate, followed by Wyoming and New Mexico. A.2.2.2 Components of Growth (Table A-17) o Population increases in the division during the 1960s were primarily attributed to natural increase (births minus deaths). This trend reversed between 1970 and 1980, however, > when positive net migration exceeded natural increase and became the dominant factor influencing population growth. o Positive net migration is projected to slow between now and the end of the century, however, resulting in the trend again reversing and natural increase becoming the dominant growth factor. o Births are expected to stabilize at about 2.2 million in the 1980s and 1990s, with deaths increasing from just under 1 million to about 1.2 million over the same time period. o Colorado, Arizona and Nevada were the only states in the division to record positive net migration in the 1960s. All others experienced negative net migration. Since 1970, how- ever, all states have recorded positive net migration and this trend is expected to continue through 2000. o Colorado is expected to record the highest number of births in every decade between 1960 and the year 2000, while Arizona is projected to experience the highest death counts over the same time period. 97 ------- TABLE A-17 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE BY DECADE: MOUNTAIN DIVISION CO Mountain Division Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total April 1, Births 144 146 70 401 263 365 245 91 1,724 Note: Figures may not add to aData from Table 12 ^Data computed from 1960-April 1 , 1970a April 1, 1970- July Deaths Net Mig. Births Deaths 66 58 28 163 68 122 65 31 602 totals due to in Statistical Abstract Table 4 In -58 -42 -39 215 -130 228 -11 144 307 1, rounding. of the United Current Population Reports 124.2 69.5 154.1 67.2 65.3 31.9 422.0 188.5 222.2 84.1 410.8 179.4 289.8 78.0 95.9 45.8 784.3 744.4 States, 1979. , No. 796. Popu 1, 1980b Net Mig. 38.6 93.2 42.3 379.8 94.0 560.7 49.4 123.7 1,381.7 lation forec July 1, 1980- July Births 147.0 184.6 77.5 552.1 267.2 541.5 339.4 123.3 2,232.6 :ast assumes Deaths 77.0 81.2 37.1 226.6 108.7 259.0 95.4 65.6 950.6 1, 1990 Net Mig. 33.0 64.2 25.7 261.0 58.4 410.7 6.6 79.3 938.3 a 2.1 fertility rate July 1, Births 138.3 178.3 74.2 562.0 254.6 561.1 333.0 124.8 2,226.3 and 1970 1990-July Deaths 90.8 101.1 45.5 284.0 139.1 350.0 118.3 87.1 1,215.9 1, 2000 Net Mig. 36.2 57.3 24.1 204.3 54.0 349.8 -11.2 70.9 785.4 to 1975 migration trends. GComprises both net immigration from abroad and net interdivisional or interstate migration according to the area shown. Includes movements of persons in the armed forces. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c. ------- o Arizona is projected to have the highest positive net migra- tion and to follow Colorado closely in number of births in every decade. o Utah is projected to rank third in the number of births in the 1980s and 1990s. Positive net migration, however, is expected to be lower there than in any other state between 1980 and 1990 and to become negative during the 1990s. A.2.2.3 Age Composition (Table A-18) o Population statistics in the division reflect an aging trend with those age 65 and over projected to increase from 8.4 percent of the total in 1970 to 11.5 percent in the year 2000. Over the same time period, the portion under age 5 is expected to decline from 9 percent to 7.2 percent. o Nevada's elderly comprised the largest share of a state's population in 1970 at 6.3 percent, but the state is projected to rank second in this regard by 2000. About 12.8 percent of the total state population will be age 65 or over at that time. o Arizona's population is projected to include a higher per- centage of the elderly than any other state in 1980, 1990 and 2000, while Utah is expected to have the lowest percentage. o The under age 5 category is expected to make up a higher per- cent of the total population in Utah than in any other state for every year recorded. Nevada statistics reflect the low- est percentage in that age group, except in 1970 when Montana had the lowest percent. o In absolute terms, Arizona is projected to record the great- est number of elderly beginning in 1980 and reaching a high of 517,000 in 2000. This would be 13.5 percent of the total state population in that year. A.2.2.4 Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Population (Table A-19) o Population increased in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of the division between 1960 and 1977. o Metropolitan areas increased at a relatively constant rate throughout that time period. Nonmetropolitan areas, however, increased more rapidly between 1970 and 1977 than they did during the 1960s. 99 ------- TABLE A-18 PROJECTIONS OF AGE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION BY DECADE: MOUNTAIN DIVISION o o Mountain Division 1970 Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total 1980 Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total Under Number 57.1 63.9 28.4 186.6 96.8 .159.1 111.9 43.9 747.7 58.8 73.7 31.1 212.3 104.5 208.4 134.3 48.1 871.2 5 Years Percent of Total 8.2 9.0 8.5 8.4 9.5 9.0 10.6 9.0 9.0 7.4 8.3 7.6 7.5 8.4 8.1 10.2 7.3 8.1 5-14 Number 151.0 152.7 70.5 458.6 242.4 380.0 240.9 100.3 1,796.4 122.6 149.2 64.2 428.5 212.8 417.5 250.3 105.8 1,750.9 Years Percent of Total 21.7 21.4 21.2 20.8 23.8 21.4 22.7 20.5 21.7 15.5 16.7 15.7 15.2 17.0 16.3 19.0 16.0 16.3 15-64 Number 417.8 429.0 203.4 1,377.3 607.6 1,075.1 629.5 313.7 5,053.4 523.9 577.3 274.2 1,940.7 819.8 1,652.6 830.1 449.0 7,067.6 Years3 Percent of Total 60.2 60.2 61.2 62.3 59.7 60.6 59.4 64.2 61.0 66.3 64.6 67.2 68.7 65.6 64.4 62.9 67.8 66.0 65 Years Number 68.5 67.4 30.1 187.1 70.3 161.2 77.0 30.8 692.4 85.4 92.8 38.6 241.4 112.0 289.0 105.8 59.5 1,024.5 and Over Percent of Total 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.5 6.9 9.1 7.3 6.3 8.4 10.8 10.4 9.5 8.6 9.0 11.3 8.0 9.0 9.6 Total 694.4 713.0 332.4 2,209.6 1,017.1 1,775.4 1,059.3 488.7 8,289.4 790.7 893.0 408.1 2,822.9 1,249.1 2,567.5 1,320.5 662.4 10,714.2 ------- TABLE A-18 (Concluded) Mountain Division 1990 Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total 2000 Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total Under Number 71.7 90.9 38.1 278.9" 129.4 275.3 164.2 62.7 1,111.2 65.2 84.2 35.2 268.7 118.5 269.4 155.3 59.8 1,056.3 5 Years Percent of Total 8.0 8.6 8.0 8.2 8.8 8.4 10.5 7.8 8.6 6.7 7.0 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.0 8.8 6.6 7.2 5-14 Number 134.9 169.4 71.0 500.6 238.0 506.2 289.3 119.3 2,028.7 147.9 188.4 78.5 577.3 263.4 588.5 321.0 136.4 2,301.4 Years Percent of Total 15.1 16.0 15.0 14.7 16.2 15.5 18.4 14.9 15.7 15.1 15.8 14.9 14.8 16.1 15.4 18.1 15.0 15.6 15-64 Number 579.0 678.1 313.6 2,308.6 940.5 2,053.1 979.7 524.6 8,377.2 645.0 783.1 351.8 2,661.7 1,060.0 2,446.8 1,139.6 595.9 9,683.9 Years3 Percent of Total 64.8 63.9 66.1 67.7 64.2 63.0 62.4 65.6 64.8 66.0 65.5 66.7 68.4 64.8 64.0 64.2 65.6 65.7 65 Years Number 108.1 122.2 51.6 321.3 158.1 426.1 137.8 92.9 1,418.1 119.3 139.6 61.6 383.8 193.6 517.0 158.6 116.1 1,689.6 and Over Percent of Total 12.1 11.5 10.9 9.4 10.8 13.1 8.8 11.6 11.0 12.2 11.7 11.7 9.9 11.8 13.5 8.9 12.8 11.5 Total 893.7 1,060.6 474.3 3,409.4 1,466.0 3,260.7 1,571.0 799.5 12,935.2 977.4 1,195.3 527.1 3,891.5 1,635.5 3,821.7 1,774.5 908.2 14,731.2 Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends. aComputed from data in Table 6, Current Population Report, No. 796. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b. ------- TABLE A-19 MOUNTAIN DIVISION POPULATION BY METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS Mountain Division Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado I—1 New Mexico j^j Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total Metropolitan Nonmetropolitan Percent Change Percent Change I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b 152 93 1,326 276 929 683 212 3,672 11.0 20.1 34.0 20.6 42.4 23.4 86.2 34.8 169 112 1,776 333 1,323 843 394 4,951 10.3 28.9 X 19.1 20.7 31.8 18.5 31.3 23.4 187 145 X 2,116 402 1,743 1,000 518 6,110 Percent Change Percent Change I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b 522 574 330 428 675 373 207 74 3,183 0.6 4.7 0.7 1.1 1.4 21.3 4.3 28.4 4.9 525 601 332 433 684 453 216 94 3,338 10. 18. 22. 17. 16. 30. 25. 26. 19. 3 4 1 6 1 8 2 2 2 579 711 406 509 794 592 270 119 3,981 Represents zero or rounds to zero. X = Not appropriate Note: Apparent data discrepancies due to rounding. aApril bJuly Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979c. ------- o Nevada recorded the highest percentage change of any state in population of both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas between 1960 and 1970. Arizona, however, surpassed Nevada between 1970 and 1977 in terms of percent increase, recording the highest change. o Montana statistics reflect the lowest percentage increase in population of all states for both metropolitan and non- metropolitan areas throughout the time period. A. 2.2.5 Labor Force Participation (Table A-20) o The female labor force in the division increased by slightly more than 1 million workers between 1960 and 1976, compared to a male labor force gain of approximately 900,000. o The female participation rate rose from 33.1 percent in 1960 to 49.7 percent in 1976, while male participation increased from 74.6 percent to 80.1 percent. o New Mexico recorded the lowest participation rates of any state for both males and females in 1960 and 1970. In 1976, however, female participation surpassed that of Arizona, while male participation remained the lowest of any state. o Female participation was higher in Nevada than in any other state in the division for all years recorded, reaching 56.1 percent in 1976. However, male participation was highest in Utah in 1960, Nevada in 1970 and Wyoming in 1976. o In 1976, Arizona, Colorado and Wyoming recorded female par- ticipation rates higher than the division level of 49.7 per- cent. Rates in all other states were lower than that level. o Male participation rates in 1976 were higher than the divi- sion rate of 80.1 percent in all states except Montana, New Mexico and Arizona. o Arizona and New Mexico were the only two states with both female and male participation rates below the division levels in every year recorded. A.2.2.6 Employment by Occupation (Table A-21) o The largest percentage increase in employment among occupa- tion categories in the division between 1970 and 1976 was realized by the managers and administration group. 103 ------- TABLE A-20 POPULATION, LABOR FORCE AND PARTICIPATION RATE BY SEX: MOUNTAIN DIVISION Population3 Labor Forcec Partlcipation Rate (Percent) Mountain Division 1960 Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total Male 234 226 115 595 305 435 281 105 2,295 Female 225 222 109 617 302 436 290 97 2,297 Male 175 176 90 440 215 314 221 80 1,711 Female 73 71 37 212 91 140 94 40 760 Male 74.8 77.9 78.3 73.9 70.5 72.2 78.6 76.2 74.6 Female 32.4 32.0 33.9 34.4 30.1 32.1 32.4 41.2 33.1 1970 Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total 1976 Montana Idaho Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada Division Total 233 236 112 737 316 578 330 170 2,713 260 282 131 862 371 759 391 209 3,265 238 243 114 779 336 617 351 165 2,842 274 294 138 948 422 833 416 221 3,546 169 177 84 531 219 401 254 131 1,966 208 232 109 713 281 577 322 173 2,614 92 95 46 331 124 240 145 78 1,150 133 141 71 511 199 381 202 124 1,762 72.5 75.0 75.0 72.0 69.3 69.4 77.0 77.1 72.5 80.0 82.3 83.2 82.7 75.7 76.0 82.4 82.8 80.1 38, 39. 40. 42. 38 41 47 36.9 40.5 48.5 48.0 51.4 53.9 47.2 45.7 48.6 56.1 49.7 Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. Discrepancies between this table and Table A-30 due to discrepancies in the source. aPersons age 14 and over for 1960; age 16 and over for 1970 and 1976. Civilian labor force. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a. 104 ------- TABLE A-21 OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS: MOUNTAIN DIVISION Mountain 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 Total Employed (Thousands) Percent Distribution by Occupation 2,964 4,050 245 319 257 351 123 174 826 1,142 323 437 614 860 379 493 198 274 Professional, Technical and Kindred Workers 16.6 16.2 14.3 12.6 13.6 13.1 15.3 14.5 17.9 17.2 19.0 18.9 16.6 17.4 17.2 16.8 14.2 12.8 Managers and Adminis- ° trators, Except Farm 9.7 11.9 10.2 10.7 9.7 U.I 11.3 12.7 9.6 12.2 9.7 11.6 9.6 11.9 9.2 12.0 10.2 13.2 Sales Workers 7.0 6.7 6.6 5.7 6.6 6.3 5.6 5.2 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.8 7.2 7.0 6.3 5.7 5.5 Clerical Workers 17.0 18.1 14.3 15. i 13.2 14.8 14.5 15.6 18.6 19.1 16.4 18.9 17.2 19.5 18.5 17.4 16.9 18.6 Craft and Kindred Workers 13.3 13.1 12.7 13.2 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.5 12.5 12.4 13.3 13.4 14.0 12.9 14.5 15.4 13.3 11.0 Operatives , Including Transport 12.4 10.5 11.1 9.1 14.3 12.5 12.1 10.4 11.9 10.6 12.2 9.8 13.6 10.5 13.5 11.8 9.2 7.3 Laborers, Except Farm 4.4 5.2 4.5 5.7 5.4 6.0 4.0 4.6 4.0 5.1 4.5 5.2 4.8 5.3 4.3 5.5 3.8 3.7 Farmworkers 5.0 4.1 11.5 12.3 11.2 11.1 8.9 8.1 3.9 2.9 3.8 2.5 2.9 2.0 3.1 2.2 1.9 1.1 Service Workers 14.5 14.2 14.8 15.7 13.2 12.3 14.5 14.5 13.9 13.5 14.7 12.8 13.6 13.4 12.7 12.6 24.7 26.7 Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a. ------- o Clerical workers recorded the second largest increase during that time period, followed by laborers. All other categor- ies, including professional and technical workers, recorded declines in percent of total employment with operatives declining the most. o Professional and technical workers declined as a percentage of the division total, but the category increased as a per- cent of the total in Arizona between 1970 and 1976. It declined in all other states. o Other changes that reflect opposite trends from that of the division in general are the increase in sales workers in New Mexico, the decrease in clerical workers in Utah and the increase in laborers in Montana. Service workers also increased as a percent of the total employed in Montana and Nevada, while declining in all other states. A.2.2.7 Employment by Industry (Table A-22) o The largest gain in percent of total employment by an indus- trial category in the division between 1970 and 1976 was made by FIRE, followed by wholesale and retail trade. Construc- tion and business and repair services also reflected slight increases during that time period. All other industrial cat- egories recorded declines in percent of total employment. o Mining was the only industrial category that reflected a con- sistent decline throughout the division between 1970 and 1976. It decreased in percent of total employment in every state. o Conversely, FIRE recorded consistent percentage increases, gaining in every state in the division during the same time period. o Business and repair service declined only in New Mexico. This was in contrast to the increasing trend in all other states and the division as a whole. A.2.3 Middle Atlantic Census Division A.2.3.1 Population Growth (Table A-23) o The Middle Atlantic Census Division's population is expected to increase from the 30 million recorded in 1950 to about 38.5 million in 2000. 106 ------- TABLE A-22 INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYED PERSONS: MOUNTAIN DIVISION Mountain Total Employed (Thousands) Percent Distribution by Industry Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Mining Construction Manufacturing 1970 2,964 5.9 2.9 6.8 12.7 1976 4,050 5.5 2.3 7.3 11.5 Montana 1970 1976 245 319 13.4 14.1 2.4 1.9 6.4 6.3 9.6 8.1 Idaho 1970 257 13.0 1.5 6.5 14.7 1976 351 13.6 1.4 7.6 15.0 Wyoming 1970 1976 123 174 10.0 9.2 9.0 8.7 6.9 10.4 6.5 5.2 Colorado 1970 826 4.6 1.7 6.6 14.5 1976 1,142 4.1 1.6 7.3 13.8 New Mexico 1970 323 4.8 5.6 7.4 6.6 1976 437 3.4 3.9 8.7 7.8 Arizona 1970 614 4.0 3.1 7.6 15.7 1976 860 3.4 2.2 5.8 12.7 Utah 1970 1976 379 493 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.4 5.5 8.1 14.6 13.2 Nev2 1970 198 2.4 1.9 8.2 5.1 Ida 1976 274 1.8 0.7 6.6 5.5 Transportation, Communication and Public Utilities Wholesale and Retail Trade Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Business and Repair Services Personal, Entertain- ment and Recreation Services Professional and Related Services Public Administration 7.1 6.5 8.0 8.2 7.1 5.7 8.9 7.5 7.4 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.1 5.1 6.7 7.3 7.8 7.4 21.7 22.6 22.3 21.6 22.7 21.5 20.3 20.2 22.3 23.2 21.0 23.6 21.9 23.5 21.6 22.3 19.1 20.6 4.8 6.3 3.9 4.7 3.9 4.8 3.3 4.0 5.6 7.3 4.1 5.5 5.7 8.3 4.2 5.3 4.2 4.8 3.6 4.1 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.0 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.9 5.3 4.8 3.7 4.9 2.7 3.4 5.2 4.4 7.3 7.3 5.8 6.0 5.5 4.8 6.8 6.4 5.8 6.2 6.7 5.3 6.6 6.4 4.9 5.3 24.5 26.5 19.8 19.2 19.9 19.7 16.5 16.7 19.4 19.7 21.3 19.1 22.7 22.2 19.3 20.3 20.0 19.3 14.2 14.0 7.4 7.3 5.9 6.6 5.1 4.8 6.3 5.8 6.6 7.1 8.9 8.0 6.4 7.4 12.6 10.1 7.3 7.7 Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of'Commerce 1979a. ------- TABLE A-23 POPULATION AND GROWTH BY DECADE: MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION o CO Average Annual Middle Atlantic Division New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Division Total Population 1950 14,830 4,835 10,498 30,164 Percent Change 1950-60 13.2 25.5 7.8 13.3 Population 1960 16,782 6,067 11,319 34,168 Percent Change 1960-70 8.7 18.2 4.2 8.9 Population 1970 18,237 7,168 11,794 37,199 Percent Change 1970-80 -1.9 4.5 0.8 0.2 Population 1980a 17,902 7,492 11,884 37,278 Percent Change 1980-90 0.5 6.9. 2.6 2.5 Population 1990 17,995 8,010 12,191 38,196 Percent Change 1990-2000 -0.2 5.2 1.0 1.3 Population 2000 17,961 8,425 12,317 38,703 Rate of Change 1975-2000b (Percent) -0.3 5.5 1.5 Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends. Apparent data discrepancies due to rounding. aFlgures for 1980 were taken from Table 1 in Current Population Reports, No. 796; 1950 to 1970 are from Tables 10 and 13 In Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1979. ^Figures were taken from Table 3 in Current Population Reports, No. 796. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c. ------- o The highest rate of change occurred in the 1950s, with a 13.3 percent increase, followed by an 8.9 percent increase between 1960 and 1970. o Growth is projected to remain under 3 percent per decade between now and the year 2000, with the population increasing by only about 1.4 million people by the end of the century. o New York experienced a population decline in the 1970s and another slight decrease is expected between 1990 and the year 2000. This would result in an overall decline by the end of the century of about 276,000 people from the peak of 18.2 million reached in 1970. o Pennsylvania has recorded the most stable population of the division in the past, and only slight increases are projected through the remainder of the century. Over the entire 50- year period, the state is expected to experience a population increase of only about 1.8 million people. o New Jersey projections reflect the most rapid growth, with the population expected to increase by approximately 3.6 mil- lion over the 1950 level of about 4.8 million. This would result in a total population of 8.4 million by 2000. o Average annual rates of change between 1975 and 2000 range from minus 0.3 percent in New York to plus 5.5 percent in New Jersey. A.2.3.2 Components of Growth (Table A-24) o Negative net migration is expected for the division in every decade from 1970 to the year 2000. Births are also projected to decline in number from about 6 million in the 1980s to approximately 5.6 million between 1990 and 2000. o All three states recorded negative net migration during the 1970s. This trend is expected to continue in New York and Pennsylvania, with New York projected to have the highest negative rate. However, an opposite trend is expected in New Jersey, with net migration there projected to be positive throughout the remainder of the century. o The number of births per decade is projected to be greater in all states in the 1980s than the number between 1970 and 1980. This trend is expected to be reversed between 1990 and 2000, however, when the number of births in all states will be lower than during the current decade. Deaths will increase slightly over this same time period. 109 ------- TABLE A-24 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE BY DECADE: MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION Middle Atlantic Division New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Division Total April 1, Births 3,361 1,259 2,105 6,725 1960-April 1, 1970a Deaths 1,852 645 1,252 3,749 Net Mig. -51 488 -378 59 April 1, Births 2,614.7 1,046.6 1,679.9 5,341.2 1970-July Deaths 1,867.1 707.8 1,291.2 3,866.1 1, 1980b Net Mig. -1,087.2 -17.9 -305.4 -1,410.5 July 1, Births 2,887.7 1,247.5 1,875.9 6,011.1 1980-July Deaths 1,855.9 772.0 1,335.6 3,963.5 1, 1990 Net Mig. -938.3 42.7 -233.7 -1,129.3 July 1, 1990-July Births 2,677.8 1,199.6 1,694.0 5,571.4 Deaths 1,864.6 852.8 1,407.8 4,125.2 1, 2000 Net Mig. -847.3 68.3 -159.4 -938.4 Note: Comprises both net immigration from abroad and net interdivisional or interstate migration according to the area shown. Includes movements of persons in the armed forces. aData from Table 12 in Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1979. ^Data computed from Table 4 in Current Population Reports, No. 796. Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c. ------- A.2.3.3 Age Composition (Table A-25) o Division population statistics reflect an aging trend. The percent of the total population in the age 65 and over cate- gory is expected to increase every decade, from a low of 10.5 percent in 1970 to a high of 12.8 percent in the year 2000. o The size of the group under age 5 fluctuates over time, but reflects a general declining trend through 2000 when the annual decrease is expected to reach 6.8 percent. This is slightly higher than the current 6.6 percent, but still below the 1970 high of 8.1 percent. o Pennsylvania is projected to experience the largest increase in elderly population, which reaches 13.9 percent of the total in the year 2000. This compares to 10.7 percent in 1970 and the current level of 12.7 percent. The under age 5 population also reaches a lower level in Pennsylvania than in the other two states, dropping to 6.4 percent in 2000. o Projections for New York and New Jersey show percentage increases for the elderly through 1990, but the percent of total population age 65 and over decreases slightly in the year 2000 for both states. A.2.3.4 Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Population (Table A-26) o Metropolitan population in the division increased during the 1960s but declined between 1970 and 1977. o Nonmetropolitan population, however, continued to increase throughout the time period, reaching a high of 5 million in 1977. This compares to 4.3 million in 1960 and 4.6 million in 1970. o All states recorded increases in metropolitan population between 1960 and 1970. Only New Jersey, however, continued this positive trend to 1977. New York and Pennsylvania both experienced declines in metropolitan population after 1970. o Nonmetropolitan population increased in all states from 1960 to 1977. A.2.3.5 Labor Force Participation (Table A-27) o The female labor force in the division increased by 2.4 mil- lion workers between 1960 and 1976, compared to a male gain of about 700,000 over the same time period. Ill ------- TABLE A-25 PROJECTIONS OF AGE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION BY DECADE: MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION Middle Atlantic Division 1970 New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Division Total 1980 New York New Jersey P Pennsylvania N3 Division Total 1990 New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Division Total 2000 New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Division Total Under 5 Years Percent of Numbe r Tot al 1,487.9 589.8 927.1 3,004.8 1,194.5 502.5 781.1 2,478.1 1,408.2 628.7 913.5 2,950.4 1,249.3 573.7 792.3 2,615.3 8.2 8.2 7.8 8.1 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.7 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.8 5-14 Years Numbe r 3,393.5 1,404.5 2,253.7 7,051.7 2,626.7 1,126.8 1,705.0 5,458.5 2,542.0 1,164.7 1,694.0 5,400.7 2,714.9 1,300.4 1,788.6 5,803.9 Percent of Total 18.6 19.6 19.1 18.9 14.7 15.0 14.3 14.6 14.1 14.5 13.9 14.1 15.1 15.4 14.5 15.0 15-64 Years3 Numbe r 11,408.7 4,483.0 7,353.0 23,244.7 11,966.4 5,009.5 7,892.6 24,868.5 11,807.5 5,189.2 7,849.0 24,845.7 11,812.7 5,483.3 8,027.2 25,323.2 Percent of Total 62.5 62.5 62.3 62.5 66.8 66.9 66.4 66.7 65.6 64.8 64.4 65.0 65.8 65.1 65.2 65.4 65 Years and Over Percent of Number Total 1,951.3 693.8 1,267.0 3,912.1 2,114.2 853.3 1,505.4 4,472.9 2,237.7 1,027.6 1,734.2 4,999.5 2,184.4 1,067.9 1,709.4 4,961.7 10.7 9.7 10.7 10.5 11.8 11.4 12.7 12.0 12.4 12.8 14.2 13.1 12.2 12.7 13.9 12.8 Total 18,241.4 7,171.1 11,800.8 37,213.3 17,901.8 7,492.1 11,884. 1 37,278.0 17,995.4 8,010.2 12,190.7 38,196.3 17,961.3 8,425.3 12,317.5 38,704.1 Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends. Discrepancies between this table and Table A-19 due to discrepancies in the source documents. aComputed from data in Table 6, Current Population Report, No. 796. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b. ------- TABLE A-26 MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION POPULATION BY METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS Metropolitan Nonmetropolitan Middle Atlantic Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Division I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b New York 15.0 8.8 16.3 -2.6 15.9 1.8 7.6 1.9 10.7 New Jersey 5.8 16.3 6.8 0.1 6.8 0.3 59.6 0.4 5.8 Pennsylvania 9.1 5.0 9.6 -0.9 4.5 2.2 1.2 2.2 18.8 Division Total 29.9 9.1 32.6 -1.6 32.1 4.3 7.5 4.6 12.3 Note: Apparent data discrepancies due to rounding. aApril. bjuly. 2.1 0.6 2.3 5.0 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 1979c. ------- TABLE A-27 POPULATION, LABOR FORCE AND PARTICIPATION RATE BY SEX: MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION Population3 Middle Atlantic Division 1960 New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Division Total 1970 New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Division Total 1976 New York New Jersey Pennsylvania Division Total Male 5.8 2.1 3.9 11.9 6.0 2.4 3.9 12.3 6.1 2.5 4.0 12.7 Female 6.5 2.3 4.3 13.1 7.0 2.7 4.5 14.1 7.2 2.8 4.6 14.6 Labor Male 4.5 1.6 3.0 9.2 4.5 1.8 3.0 9.3 4.7 2.0 3.1 9.9 Forceb Female 2.4 0.8 1.4 4.6 2.9 1.1 1.7 5.8 3.4 1.4 2.1 7.0 Participation Rate (Percent) Male 77.4 77.5 76.1 77.0 75.1 77.5 75.4 75.7 77.1 79.2 77.2 77.6 Female 36.9 35.5 33.3 35.5 41.3 42.5 39.4 40.9 47.5 49.7 45.4 47.3 Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. Discrepancies between this table and Table A-22 due to discrepancies in the source. aPersons age 14 and over for 1960; age 16 and over for 1970 and 1976. ^Civilian labor force. Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a. ------- o Female participation rose from 35.5 percent in 1960 to 47.3 percent in 1976. At the same time, male participation fluc- tuated from 77.0 percent in 1960, to 75.7 in 1970 and 77.6 in 1976. o New York and Pennsylvania experienced a fluctuating trend in male participation similar to that of the region, while New Jersey recorded a steady rate in the 1960s with a slight rise by 1976. o Female participation, on the other hand, increased in every state between 1960 and 1976. The highest female rate occurred in New Jersey in 1976 when it reached 49.7 percent, up from the 35.5 level of 1960. o Pennsylvania's female participation rate was lower than the division levels in every year recorded. Conversely, New York and New Jersey rates were equal to or greater than division levels throughout the period. A.2.3.6 Employment by Occupation (Table A-28) o Change in the percent of total employment by occupation category in the Middle Atlantic Census Division between 1970 and 1976 was greatest for managers and administrators, followed by professional and technical workers. Both categories increased their shares of total employment. o Laborers, farm workers and service workers also experienced slight percentage gains over the six years. o All other occupation categories declined over that time period, with operatives experiencing the largest decrease. o The only divergence from division trends was in New Jersey where the clerical workers' proportion of total employment remained steady rather than declining as for the division. A.2.3.7 Employment by Industry (Table A-29) o The most significant gain in employment distribution by industrial category in the division was made in professional and related services, which increased in percent of total employment from 18.0 to 21.1 percent between 1970 and 1976. This was followed by wholesale and retail trade, which gained 1 percent of the total over the same time period. 115 ------- TABLE A-28 OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS: MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION Middle Atlantic 1970 1976 Total Employed (Thousands) 14,520 15,111 Percent Distribution by Occupation Professional, Technical and Kindred Workers 15.7 17.5 Managers and Adminis- trators, Except Farm 8.1 10.7 Sales Workers 7.4 6.0 Clerical Workers 20.4 19.7 Craft and Kindred Workers 13.3 12.2 Operatives, Including Transport 17.9 14.8 Laborers, Except Farm 4.0 4.1 Farm Workers 1.0 1.4 Service Workers 12.2 13.6 New York New Jersey Pennsylvania 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 7,124 7,304 2,859 3,054 4,537 4,753 16.7 18.8 16.1 17.9 13.8 15.1 8.5 11.3 8.8 11.8 7.0 9.3 7.5 5.8 7.7 6.6 7.0 5.8 22.4 21.4 20.2 19.5 17.3 17.3 12.2 11.2 13.7 12.4 14.9 13.7 15.1 13.0 18.6 14.5 21.8 17.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.9 4.9 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9 13.0 13.8 10.7 12.2 12.0 14.2 Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a. ------- TABLE A-29 INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYED PERSONS: MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION Middle Atlantic 1970 1976 Total Employed (Thousands) 14,520 15,111 Percent Distribution by Industry Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 1.4 1.8 Mining 0.4 0.4 Construction 5.1 4.7 Manufacturing 28.8 24.1 Transportation, Communication and Public Utilities 7.4 7.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade 19.3 20.3 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 6.2 6.0 Business and Repair Services 3.6 3.9 Personal, Entertain- ment and Recreation Services 4.6 4.8 Professional and Related Services 18.0 21.1 Public Administration 5.2 5.7 New York New Jersey Pennsylvania 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 7,124 7,304 2,859 3,054 4,537 4,753 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.2 4.8 4.1 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.2 24.2 21.4 32.2 25.1 34.0 27.7 8.0 8.0 7.6 7.3 6.4 5.8 19.5 20.3 19.1 20.6 18.9 20.1 7.5 6.6 6.1 6.5 4.2 4.8 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.1 2.8 3.3 5.2 4.9 4.0 4.8 4.2 4.7 19.7 23.2 15.8 18.8 16.7 19.4 5.5 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.7 5.4 Represents zero or rounds to zero. 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