Demographic Change and
Environmental Risk:
A Future Perspective
The MITRE Corporation

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Demographic Change and
Environmental Risk:
A Future Perspective
Jan F. Sassaman
JohnE. Singley
Richard K. Travis
January 1981
MTR-80W298
Sponsor: Environmental Protection Agency
Contract No.: EPA-68-01-5064
The MITRE Corporation
Metrek Division
1820 Dolley Madison Boulevard
McLean, Virginia 22102

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                              ABSTRACT
     This paper presents a conceptual framework linking change in
population characteristics in the United States with changes in
vulnerability to pollutants and in tendencies for persons to come in
contact with pollutants.  The relationship between changes in
population distribution and pollution levels is also explored, as is
the relationship between the probability that a pollutant will cause
harm and human vulnerability to and contact with a pollutant.
Demographic trends at the national level and for three regions are
described with respect to demographic variables that may influence
vulnerability to environmental hazards.  Finally, two methods for
analyzing the relationship between demographic variables and the
probability of harm from environmental pollutants at the regional
level are demonstrated, and implications for further research are
drawn.
                                ill

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                     PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS







     This is one of several documents on environmental trends and




future problems produced to support the Environmental Protection




Agency's Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS)




in preparing its annual Environmental Outlook report.  That report




assists the Agency in its long-range research and development role.




     Last year's Environmental Outlook 1980 was an ambitious project,




covering a broad spectrum of issues.  This year, studies like this




one focus on selected issues,  dealing with them in greater depth.




This approach was conceived by Dr.  Irvin L. (Jack) White, formerly




with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and project guidance




was provided by John W. Reuss, OSASS director.




     MITRE staff members who played central roles in the development




of this study included:  Brian Price, program manager; Beth Borko,




project manager; Vivian Aubuchon, editorial support; and Carol




Kulhman, production support.
                                  iv

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                          TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES                                                   vi
LIST OF TABLES                                                   vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                 xi

1.0  INTRODUCTION                                                  1

     1.1  A New Approach                                           3
     1.2  Outlook on Jeopardy                                      9

2.0  ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY                                       11

     2.1  Introduction                                            11
     2.2  Natural Selection and Cultural Evolution                12
     2.3  Relationships of Activity, Attitudes and                19
          Attributes to Environmental Hazards
     2.4  Probability of Harm                                     26

3.0  DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY                31

     3.1  Generalized Implications of National                    31
          Demographic Trends
     3.2  Generalized Implications of Regional                    35
          Demographic Trends

4.0  ENVIRONMENTAL DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS                           43

     4.1  Air Pollution:  An Example of Environmental             44
          Demographic Analysis
     4.2  Probability of Harm from Air Pollutant Hazards          59
     4.3  Conclusion                                              69

APPENDIX   DATA ON POPULATION TRENDS                              71

REFERENCES                                                       119

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                           LIST OF FIGURES


Figure Number                                                   Page

      1          Interactions  Among Functional Societal           20
                 Variables and Environmental  Jeopardy

      2          Census  Divisions  of the  United States             36

      3          National Trends in Net Emissions  of Major        52
                 Air Pollutants by Source,  1975 and  2000

      4          Federal Regions of the United States             53

     A-l         Census  Regions of the United States              78
                               VI

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                           LIST OF TABLES


Table Number                                                    Page

     1          Selected Studies of Health Effects of             46
                Major Air Pollutants

     2          Regional Trends in Major Air Pollution            54
                Emissions

     3          Trends in Net Emissions of Major Air              55
                Pollutants for the Nation and Selected
                Areas

     4          Major Assumptions Affecting Projections of        56
                Future Levels and Distribution of Air
                Pollutant Emissions

     5          Trends in Air Pollution and Population in         60
                the West Central Florida Air Quality Control
                Region

     6          Indices of Air Pollution Inhalation in the        62
                West Central Florida AQCR for the Year 2000

     7          Air Pollution Projections, Salt Lake              66
                County, Utah

     8          Estimates of Mortality Due to Particulate         68
                Emissions, Salt Lake County, Utah

    A-l         U.S. Population Growth Rate                       72

    A-2         Components of U.S. Population Growth              73

    A-3         Age Composition of the U.S. Population            75

    A-4         U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates              76

    A-5         U.S. Employment by Occupation and Sex             77

    A-6         Regional Migration for the U.S. Population        79

    A-7         Regional Population and Rate of Growth            80

    A-8         U.S. Population by Metropolitan and Non-          82
                metropolitan Areas
                                VII

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                           LIST OF TABLES
                             (Continued)
Table Number                                                    Pa§e

    A-9         Population and Growth by Decade:   South           83
                Atlantic Division

    A-10        Components of Population Change by Decade:         85
                South Atlantic Division

    A-ll        Projections of Age Composition of Population      87
                by Decade:   South  Atlantic  Division

    A-12        South Atlantic Division  Population by             89
                Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan  Areas

    A-13        Population,  Labor  Force  and Participation         91
                Rate  by  Sex:   South Atlantic Division

    A-14        Occupation  of Employed Persons:   South             92
                Atlantic Division

    A-15        Industry of Employed Persons:  South              94
                Atlantic Division

    A-16         Population  and Growth by Decade:   Mountain         96
                Division

    A-17         Components  of Population Change by Decade:         98
                Mountain Division

   A-18         Projections  of  Age  Composition of Population     100
                by Decade:   Mountain Division

   A-19         Mountain Division  Population by Metropolitan     102
               and Nonmetropolitan  Areas

   A-20         Population,  Labor  Force  and  Participation        104
               Rate by  Sex:   Mountain Division

   A-21         Occupation of  Employed Persons:   Mountain        105
               Division

   A-22         Industry of Employed  Persons:  Mountain           107
               Division
                               Vlll

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                           LIST OF TABLES
                             (Concluded)
Table Number                                                    Page

    A-23        Population and Growth by Decade:  Middle         108
                Atlantic Division

    A-24        Components of Population Change by Decade:       110
                Middle Atlantic Division

    A-25        Projections of Age Composition of Population     112
                by Decade:  Middle Atlantic Division

    A-26        Middle Atlantic Division Population by           113
                Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas

    A-27        Population, Labor Force and Participation        114
                Rate by Sex:   Middle Atlantic Division

    A-28        Occupation of Employed Persons:  Middle          116
                Atlantic Division

    A-29        Industry of Employed Persons:  Middle            117
                Atlantic Division
                                 IX

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                          EXECUTIVE SUMMARY






    For many societies, cultural change has relied on complex




technology that in turn has resulted in widespread discharges of




harmful materials.  To protect society, government has taken on a




regulatory role to control these discharges.  Today's environmental




regulations are egalitarian in philosophy and application, for the




most part setting de minimus standards at the national or state




level.




     Such a regulatory philosophy implies that different areas of the




country have a commonality of needs, despite the fact that different




geographic areas can have varied populations with different needs.




It can be argued that such differences need not be considered in the




regulatory arena or that it would be too costly and confusing to




consider them.  However, this paper presents a case for investigating




a new approach to environmental regulation, based on the needs of




different geographic areas.  Further, it asserts that future environ-




mental regulations should be fine-tuned to account for regional dif-




ferences in population attributes (such as greater numbers of elderly




in retirement in Florida), in human activities (such as the potential




for occupational contact with dangerous substances in industrial




sectors) or in regional social values.
                                 XI

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 Environmental Jeopardy




      Man, like the rest of the biological world,  is  subject  to  the




 laws of nature and must respond to changes in his environment.   Mod-




 ern man has responded to his environment  in a manner unique  in  the




 animal kingdom.   He has developed the  technological  means  to control




 his environment  in order to temporarily halt the  natural process of




 environmental change to a greater extent  than any other animal  spe-




 cies.   The protection from the vicissitudes of the environment




 afforded modern  man by his technology  has brought with it  a  proba-




 bility of harm from the effluvia of  that  technology—a probability,




 or jeopardy,  that  has become more pervasive as technology  has




 increased in  complexity.




     The effect  of environmental pollution on human  health is a




 function of contact  with environmental hazards and of individual and




 population attributes.   One can only be affected  by  a harmful agent




 such as  an environmental pollutant if  one comes in contact with it




 and is vulnerable  to it.   Vulnerability involves  physiological  con-




 ditions  that  predispose  an individual  to  harm.  These physiological




 conditions are often directly  related  to  age,  sex, genetic variables




 and personal habits  (such  as  smoking or drinking).   An individual's




 tendency to come in  contact with a harmful  agent  in  turn is  related




 to location (with  respect  to  the  distribution  of  the  agent of harm)




and occupation.  For  a group,  probability of harm is  related  to  the




number of persons  and their collective contacts and vulnerabilities.
                                 XII

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The perception of an "acceptable" probability of harm is influenced




by past experience, beliefs, attitudes and values.  Moreover, an




individual is likely to accept a higher probability of harm if




contact with a harmful agent is voluntary rather than involuntary.




Demographic Trends and Environmental Jeopardy




     Changing population patterns in the United States may bring with




them important changes in pollution levels, frequency of contact with




pollutants, vulnerability and probability of harm.  For the nation as




a whole, future trends in employment and residence suggest that peo-




ple will be working and living in environments and localities in




which  they will endure less frequent contact with hazards and lower




pollution levels than they do today.  Workers are choosing relatively




safe occupations and the population is shifting from congested north-




eastern cities to the less polluted South and West.  There is no way




of knowing how long these trends will continue, but the authors




assume they will extend at least to the year 2000.  At the same time,




however, projected trends in average population age suggest the like-




lihood of increasing vulnerability to harm from some pollutants since




the national population is expected, on the average, to grow older.




The overall result of general population trends may be a reduced




probability of harm for the average individual in the United States,




but an increased number of persons succumbing to the effects of




pollutants—both because of absolute population growth and increasing




vulnerability.
                                 Xlll

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      Future  trends  indicate a growing disparity in the demographic




 makeup  of  different  regions.  This disparity will affect the relative




 vulnerability  and number  of persons in contact with hazards in dif-




 ferent  regions.  Therefore, some regional populations may face a




 greater risk of harm from environmental hazards than others.




      Three census divisions are compared to demonstrate different




 projections  of future demographic patterns.  In the South Atlantic




 Census  Division, the national aging trend is exacerbated by continued




 migration  of retirees to  southern states.  The average age, and thus




 the vulnerability, of this growing population is increasing.  This,




 coupled with the rising pollution levels likely to accompany popula-




 tion  growth, will add up  to a greater probability of harm in the




 South Atlantic Division.  The metropolitan areas of the South




 Atlantic division are maintaining their proportionate share of the




 population,  with larger numbers of persons coming in contact with




 increasing pollution and  consequent environmental hazards associated




with urban and industrialized areas.




     The Mountain Census  Division is composed of a population that is




 increasing in  average age at a slower rate than in the South Atlantic




division.  The regional population tends to be less urban than the




country as a whole,  and is expected to experience an increase in both




male and female labor force participation rates.  For the Mountain




division, probability of harm from environmental pollutants seems to




be increasing and is  likely to get worse, especially as energy
                                 xiv

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resources are developed,  spurring  the migration of energy-




intensive industry  to  the region,  and as pollution and population




size  increase in  growing  urban  and industrial areas.




      With an increasing average age, migration from metropolitan




areas and a shift in employment toward non-manufacturing industries,




environmental and occupational risks appear to be declining in the




Middle Atlantic Census Division.   People—especially the elderly—are




moving out of the division, which  should reduce vulnerability to




environmental hazards  in  the Middle Atlantic division.  As in the




nation as a whole,  workers remaining in the region will be in less




jeopardy due to safer  work environments, advances in pollution




control measures  and improved medical care that will benefit their




generation more than their older predecessors.




Environmental Demographic Analysis




      To illustrate  the relationship between population change and




change in environmental and occupational jeopardy, the probability of




harm  associated with projected trends in air emissions is analyzed.




The major air pollutants associated with our industrial-metropolitan




mode  of life have repeatedly been  shown to correlate with various




adverse health effects.  The potential cost to the nation in terms of




mortality and morbidity as a result of air pollution can be consider-




able.  Crocker et al.  (1979) estimated that a 60 percent reduction in




pollution would result in health benefits equal to $59.1 billion in




1978 dollars.
                                 xv

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      Assuming full compliance with existing regulations, only  emis-




 sions of the oxides of sulfur and nitrogen are expected to surpass




 national 1975 levels by 2000.  By the end of the century,  ambient




 levels of particulates and hydrocarbons  are expected to rise toward




 1975 levels as economic growth counteracts improvements realized in




 the 1980s through compliance with regulatory requirements.  The




 carbon monoxide level is expected to decline steadily throughout the




 period.  Similar trends in air emissions are anticipated in the




 Southeast Federal Region.   In general, projections  of air  emissions




 for the Middle Atlantic Federal Region indicate  a trend of relatively




 more improvement than for  the nation as  a whole;  while worsening




 conditions are projected for the Mountain Federal Region.   However,




 despite these trends, overall amounts of net emissions will still be




 greater in the Middle Atlantic region than in the Mountain region by




 the year 2000.




      The potential for human contact with certain pollutants in the




 West Central  Florida Air Quality Control Region  (AQCR) for the  year




 2000 was estimated to demonstrate the use of a simple model based on




 projected proportional changes  in the area population (total popu-




 lation and  subpopulations)  and  in net emissions  for the five major




 pollutants  from  1975  to  2000.   The analysis is offered merely as  an




 illustration and the  reader  is  cautioned that  an  absence of  adequate




data prevented this model from  being precise.  The  elderly subpopu-




lation was singled out for analysis  here,  although  other groups could




be analyzed in the same  fashion.



                                  xvi

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      In  this AQCR, the  subpopulation of persons age 65 and over is




expected to more than double between 1975 and 2000.  This much larger




group of vulnerable elderly persons will face increased emissions of




three air pollutants:   particulates and oxides of nitrogen and sul-




fur.  Population growth and higher pollution levels are expected to




create a threefold increase in probability of harm from these three




pollutants for  the elderly between 1975 and 2000.




      For Salt Lake County, Utah, a second type of analysis was per-




formed based on elasticities relating increases in mortality to




increases in total particulate emissions.  Again, a lack of adequate




data  prevented  the analysis from being precise.  Assuming an elastic-




ity of 0.09 for total mortality for increases in particulate air




emissions, as many as 200 deaths in Salt Lake County in 1995 may be




attributable to a 46 percent increase in particulate emissions in




that year over  1975 levels.




      In  summary, considering the environment and demographic factors




in a kind of analysis that this paper calls "environmental demogra-




phy" can  be valuable to the regulatory arena.  It can indicate where




the greatest benefit in terms of protecting human health and welfare




can be achieved.  Of course, at this time environmental demography is




limited.  We do not fully understand what segments of the population




would suffer the greatest harm from many pollutants.  In addition, we




can't completely grasp  the relationship between some pollutants and




the health of the general population, let alone that of specific
                                xvii

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subpopulations in certain geographic areas.  However, environmental

demographic analyses can give us some indication of where the

greatest potential for detriment to health will be in the future.

Conclusions and Recommendations

     A study of this type is hampered by a lack of appropriate dem-

ographic data.  Subpopulation projections are not disaggregated to

the AQCR or county level; there is no comprehensive theoretical or

empirical basis for much of the analysis (e.g., specific coefficients

of elasticity or coefficients of vulnerability for subpopulations and

various pollutants); and there are no adequate mechanisms to utilize

the results of such analyses in the development and implementation of

environmental protection policies.

     Future work to advance the state of the art should include:

     o  Devising methods to measure regional values, attitudes and
        priorities related to technology's hazards;

     o  Devising methods to determine the comparative priorities  for
        different regions;

     o  Providing more detailed information on the etiology of envi-
        ronmentally related diseases;

     o  Determining the quantitative relationships between concentra-
        tion of environmental hazard and probability of harm for
        various populations;  and

     o  Determining the ability to set standards differentially,
        based on geographic area and population (demographic)
        characteristics.
                               xvm

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 1.0   INTRODUCTION




      As a technological animal, man is as much a product of his tech-




 nology as his technology is a product of him.  Dependence on technol-




 ogy began when our ancestors first shaped a piece of flint into a




 sharp spearhead  to kill game.  However, this first spearhead was,




 both  literally and figuratively, two-edged.  It could injure one of




 our ancestors, either  accidently or intentionally, just as easily as




 it could be used to bring down game.  Thus, with the advent of tech-




 nology was born  the potential for harm to human populations from




 other than natural causes.




      Since the stone age, human evolution has been primarily a phe-




 nomenon of cultural rather than biological change.  For many soci-




 eties, this cultural change has resulted in reliance on an increas-




 ingly complex and pervasive technology.  With this technology has




 come  an increasingly complex and pervasive potential for man-made




 environmental harm to  human populations.  Indeed, in many cases, this




 potential harm is global in scope.  For example, changes in atmo-




 spheric carbon dioxide levels from fossil fuel combustion hold the




 potential for climatic changes (Otway et al. 1975).




      The potential for indirect harm (as from noxious or toxic chemi-




 cals  in the air, water or soil) or direct harm (as from occupational




handling of dangerous chemicals) resulting from technological devel-




opments has become so  pervasive in recent decades that governments




have  increasingly adopted a regulatory role in order to control
                                  1

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proliferation of potentially harmful side effects of technology.   In

the United States,  this regulatory role culminated in passage of  the

National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) (PL 91-190) and  the

formation of the Environmental Protection Agency in 1970.

     Current U.S. environmental regulations can be considered the

first-generation attempt to regulate potential harm to society from

the by-products of  its technology.  These regulations sometimes allow

for regional variations, as is the case with State Implementation

Plans, governing industrial air emissions.  However, the authors

believe that standards and regulations are often based on the implied

assumption that society is uniform in its tolerance to environmental

harm, both psychologically (values and perceptions) and physiologi-

cally (individual biological tolerances).

     The thesis of  this paper is that a second generation of environ-

mental legislation and regulations should consider the U.S. popula-

tion as heterogeneous.  Demographic characteristics, such as age

distribution, employment, income and education, not only differ in

different regions of the country, but also undergo change with time.

For example, the average age of the U.S. population is increasing and

the regional distribution patterns of the elderly are changing with

the migration of retired persons to Sunbelt states such as Florida
 A detailed review of the regulatory role of government is pre-
 sented in Chapter 3 of Environmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Environ-
 mental Protection Agency 1980).

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and Arizona.  Data indicate  that  the elderly are more vulnerable to




certain pollutants than the  population as a whole (Calabrese 1978).




In addition  to demographic factors, environmental legislation and




regulations  should consider  regional variations in values and




perceptions  that  influence tolerances to potential environmental




harm.




      It can  be argued  that demographic variables and attitudes should




not be considered in the regulatory arena.  One might ask why the




healthy, youthful residents  of one area might merit less protection




from  pollutants than the older, more vulnerable residents of another.




One might also say that considering such factors would be too costly




and confusing.  Without attempting to dispute such arguments, this




paper presents a  case  for investigating a new approach to regulation




based on such considerations.




1.1  A New Approach




      1.1.1  Meeting the Challenge




     The challenges facing those  responsible for ensuring the health




and welfare of members of our technological society are numerous and




varied.  A tool that can be  used  to meet the challenge is the study




of the relationships between societal characteristics and the




probability of harm from technology's effluvia—a study or system of




thought that this paper terms "environmental demography."




     These preliminary remarks outline potential uses for data that




might be provided by environmental demography now and in the future.

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 Next,  this paper explores  the  current limits of  the environmental




 demographic approach before  presenting suggestions to correct these




 deficiencies.




      The discoveries of  this exploration are too partial and general




 to be  more than suggestive.  However, the study illustrates the




 potential utility of environmental demography, and provides direc-




 tions  for further work in  the  field.




      1.1.2  Potential Uses of  Environmental Demographic Data




      In general,  environmental demographic data can be used to help




 inform and direct  the processes of developing and implementing envi-




 ronmental protection policies  so as to devise regulatory strategies




 specifically tuned to the needs of those they are supposed to pro-




 tect.   The environmental implications of changes in occupation, loca-




 tion,  age and other  population variables provide a more complete and




 precise  understanding of environmental protection problems than would




 be available without  such considerations.  This understanding affords




 the potential for  better use of the nation's limited resources—




 ensuring  that environmental regulations work toward the allocation of




 resources  with  the least environmental degradation.




     The  limited analysis presented in this paper shows how our per-




 spective  on  the environment can be refined when pollution and pop-




ulation data are combined.  Considered in isolation, expected trends




in some air pollution levels may be interpreted as instances of prog-




ress in environmental protection, and they do represent limited

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improvements.  However,  if  concurrent demographic changes suggested a




greater probability of adverse health effects despite these reduced




pollution levels, one real  limit  of  the process would be laid bare.




Consideration of demographic changes would permit discovery of a popu-




lation's specific protection needs.  Actions can then be proposed and




taken to provide adequate protection, whether through specialized




pollution abatement, health delivery systems, regulations or some




other approach to a specific problem.




     A refined perspective  on protection problems and opportunities




would permit better research and  development strategies, ensuring the




availability of all elements needed  to determine regulatory strate-




gies.  And, in response  to  updated estimates and projections of popu-




lation variables (regularly provided by the Bureau of the Census),




these strategies can be  adjusted  as feasible to keep them responsive




to the population's changing needs.




     An important potential use of environmental demographic data is




its incorporation in public information programs.  It can be argued




that the public has a right to hear and a duty to heed information




that clearly portrays a  potential source of harm associated with a




technological society.




     It might seem that  such information would be widely ignored.




Many individuals and institutions in our society are driven by eco-




nomic incentives as much as by any other motive.  Moreover, many




Americans needlessly subject themselves to harm, as evidenced by

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 those who  smoke  cigarettes.   However, many also quit  smoking,  demon-

 strating a desire  to  avoid harm, and many more could  be  expected  to

 avoid environmental hazards  if  they were alerted  to potential  health

 threats.  The ultimate success  of attempts to avoid or reduce  hazards

 would depend in  part  upon effective communication of  a complete pic-

 ture  of  the projected probability of harm, the realistic alterna-

 tives, and associated costs  and benefits.

      1.1.3 Limitations to the  Study and Use of Environmental
            Demography

      At  the present time there  appear to be some  real limits to the

 generation and utilization of environmental demographic  data.  Some

 of  these limits may be readily  corrected, but eradicating others

 could require substantial investments of time and  resources.

      There are three  kinds of limits:

      (1)   Much of  the demographic data needed for  the desired  analy-
           ses is not  readily available;

      (2)   The environmental demographic approach  lacks a comprehen-
           sive and coherent  theoretical or empirical  basis for much
           of the desired analysis; and

      (3)   It is unclear whether adequate institutional mechanisms are
           actually or potentially operative for utilizing the  results
           of such analyses in the development and  implementation  of
           environmental protection policies, plans, programs and
           projects.

 If the potential benefits of this environmental demographic approach

are to be  properly realized, these problems must  be better understood

and their  solutions must be undertaken.

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     This limited analysis deals with the first two of these problems




most directly and the third to a lesser extent.  The third problem of




potentially inadequate institutional mechanisms for utilizing




detailed data, while germane to this paper, is only raised as a philo-




sophical issue.  Section 2 points out that the current-generation




environmental regulatory milieu is essentially an egalitarian one,




attempting to protect all equally, irrespective of individual values,




wishes, health or needs.  A vital change in regulatory philosophy




that considers these values, wishes and needs at a regional level is




necessary to the optimal use of this approach.




     The problems of inadequate data and lack of a basic theoretical




framework are likely to be formidable ones.  Inasmuch as the environ-




mental demographic approach attempts to differentially relate popula-




tion attributes and both environmental and occupational hazards, the




task of formulating the necessary theoretical framework and empirical




data must call upon many areas of the social, health and environmen-




tal sciences.




     Limited demographic data were a major source of difficulty in




this analysis, as is evident in Section 4.  Much of the data needed




to project demographic variables was not readily available for polit-




ical-geographic units below the state level.  Consequently, state




level data were used in place of more precise numbers needed for the




West Central Florida Air Quality Control Region (AQCR).  For the




present purpose of illustration, this substitution is little more

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than an annoyance, but, when definitive results are needed, such

substitutions may not be acceptable.

     1.1.4  Suggestions for Improving Environmental Demographic Study

     Environmental demography incorporates population variables such

as location, occupation, age distribution and attitudes, along with

environmental variables such as pollutant releases to determine the

probability of harm for subpopulations in various regions of the

country.  Many of the corrective measures one might recommend for

making environmental demography a useful tool in environmental pro-

tection processes have been introduced in the preceding discussion of

current limits, including the need for disaggregated demographic

trends.

     The limited analysis presented here demonstrates that the

approach has sufficient potential to warrant further exploration and

development.  But, the next step to be taken is to better define the

near-term, mid-term and long-term implications within agencies

responsible for environmental protection.  Therefore, this report

recommends that such an exploration be undertaken before abandoning

or advancing the approach introduced here.  If this exploration

reveals a sufficient need for and capacity to use knowledge that

could be obtained from environmental demography, then future work

should be undertaken to advance the state of the art, including:

     o  Devising methods to measure regional values, attitudes and
        priorities related to technology's hazards;

     o  Devising methods to determine the comparative priorities for
        different regions;

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     o  Providing more detailed information on the etiology of envi-
        ronmentally-related diseases;

     o  Determining the quantitative relationships between concentra-
        tion of environmental hazard and probability of harm for
        various demographic populations; and

     o  Determining the ability to set standards differentially,
        based on geographic area and population (demographic)
        characteristics.

1.2  Outlook on Jeopardy

     The potential for environmental and occupational harm is prob-

ably on the decline in the United States since pollution control

measures are lowering emissions, the population is shifting from

congested northeastern cities to the less polluted South and West,

and workers are turning to less dangerous occupations.  There is no

way of knowing how long these trends will continue, but the authors

believe they will extend at least to the year 2000.  At the same

time, however, the authors also believe acceptance of harm also

appears to be declining as society's expectations for safety continue

to outrun technology's achievements.  Declining acceptance will be a

primary force contributing to efforts to reduce man's jeopardy, or

probability of harm.  Of course, such efforts would also require a

better understanding of the causes, conditions and consequences of

environmental and occupational hazards.

     This exploratory study represents a preliminary step toward that

understanding.  In a consideration of man-made hazards, the simple

fact that the problem begins and ends with people is an essential

point of departure for further consideration.  This study attempts

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to shed some light on this facet of man's jeopardy through environ-




mental demography.




     Individual behavior, denoted by some occupation and location




changes, may be viewed as an attempt at self preservation.  When




presented with an opportunity, some people act to reduce their expo-




sure to hazards or other undesirable conditions.  This is arguable,




as evidenced by population growth in California where migrants seem




undaunted by the multiple threats of earthquakes, mudslides, brush




fires and flooding.  Nonetheless, some persons relocate to the sub-




urbs, retire early from dangerous jobs or move to the Sunbelt to




avoid hazards.  Without appropriate environmental regulation of tech-




nology, however, hazards will follow population shifts wherever they




go.  The suburbs and the Sunbelt could well become the places to




avoid in the future.
                                 10

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2.0  ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY




2.1  Introduction




     Man evolves and develops in response to the selective pressures




of his environment, whether natural or man-made.  In contemporary




nations such as the United States where technology is a major factor




driving development, people respond to the selective pressures caused




by technology and its by-products as much as, if not more than, they




do to selective pressures of nature.  Nevertheless, the basic prin-




ciple of natural selection remains operant:  those individuals less




adapted to their environment at any given time are less likely to




survive.  In essence, their life expectancy is reduced.




     It is important to emphasize that the environment acts at the




individual level.  Individuals at a selective disadvantage face a




reduced life expectancy.  The effect of the environment on a popula-




tion, then, is a function of the proportion of that population at a




selective disadvantage or, conversely, at a selective advantage.




When speaking of humans and potential harm from environmental haz-




ards, one must realize that the entire population is usually at a




selective disadvantage, although some individuals are more likely to




be affected by a given environmental factor or pollutant due to




inherent attributes such as age or sex, or due to external activities




such as an occupation that involves inhaling cotton dust or handling




dangerous chemicals.




     Rather than discussing individuals being at a selective disad-




vantage with regard to environmental factors, one can consider them



                                 11

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as being vulnerable to environmental pollution, realizing that for




most pollutants, individuals will display a tolerance range that




depends upon physiological and psychological factors.  Besides




individual vulnerability, an important factor is contact with a given




hazard.  The collective probability of harm for a population would




depend on the number of individuals as well as on their collective




vulnerability, and on the duration and intensity of their contact




with a given environmental hazard.




     This section looks briefly at the concepts of both natural and




cultural (or technological) selection and the significance of these




concepts to the behavior of human populations in a technological




environment.  After establishing that human populations are at the




selective mercy of an environment that they have often shaped with




their own technology, it goes on to discuss the characteristics of




populations that determine their collective vulnerability to environ-




mental pollution (e.g., growth rate, age distribution, geographic




distribution).  Finally, it examines the concept of probability of




harm in terms of the way in which it is perceived and the ways in




which conflicting societal values may alter that perception.




2.2  Natural Selection and Cultural Evolution




     Darwin (1859) first formulated a detailed concept of natural




selection as the primary mechanism by which organisms evolve.




Basically,  natural selection occurs in the following way:
                                 12

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     o  For any given species or population of organisms, more indi-
        viduals are born into each generation than the environment
        can support to reproduce the next generation.  Individuals of
        each generation display physical and physiological variabil-
        ity due to genetic differences.

     o  Since the necessities of life are often in limited supply,
        organisms must compete for food, shelter and space to mate
        and raise young.  This competition often takes subtle forms—
        the pregnant female mammal that can nurture her developing
        fetus more efficiently than her sisters is also likely to
        produce stronger, more competitively successful offspring
        for the next generation.

     o  The natural environment is hostile to most organisms.
        Besides having to compete for resources in short supply,
        organisms must outrun or outguess predators or otherwise
        avoid natural extermination before they are able to
        reproduce.  Those individuals of a population or a species
        best adapted to a particular habitat at a particular time
        will be most likely to reproduce the next generation.  They
        will be selected by the forces of nature.

     o  Finally, environments change with time, altering the selec-
        tive forces exerted on organisms, which results in changes in
        the types of genetic variants that are most successful or
        most adapted to the environment.  Hence evolution occurs.

     With some degree of daring in the Victorian era, Darwin (1871)

postulated that the process of natural selection applied to man as

well as to the rest of the biological world.  The concept of natural

selection, particularly as it applied to man, sparked a raging intel-

lectual debate during the latter part of the nineteenth century and

early twentieth century.  Out of this debate emerged several concepts

important to our understanding of how societies have developed and

are still evolving.  Darwin's work gave impetus to the idea that

human societies and cultures interact with the environment just as

individuals do and, if these cultures and societies interact with the

environment, they too may be at its selective mercy.

                                 13

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     Some thinkers extended the original concept of natural selection
to the idea that human cultures are direct products of the environ-
ment in which they have evolved.  In its most rigid form, environ-
mental determinism, this concept holds that there is a direct and
deterministic relationship between environment and culture.  While
the deterministic view may be too narrow and simplistic, the fact
remains that cultures have evolved within, and as part of the fabric
of their environment.  Cultures develop through adaptation to the
selective pressures of a changing environment.
     If human culture interacts with the environment, what has become
of the interaction between the individual and the environment?  It
can be argued that, while individuals do interact directly with their
environment, the technology upon which human culture is based
increasingly protects individuals from nature's harms.  In highly
industrialized societies, individuals are largely shielded from the
vicissitudes of their environment by various technological adapta-
tions.  The probability of harm from parasites is reduced by inno-
vations such as insecticides to control mosquitoes and tsetse flies.
Increased crop yields through genetic engineering, monoculture and
mechanized farming have increased the number of persons who can be
fed from available arable land.  Irrigation has increased the amount
of land available for agricultural use.  Modern medicine has not only
increased human life spans,  but it also has sustained and kept both
biologically and socially productive many individuals who would
otherwise have perished due  to natural selective forces.
                                  14

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     The benefits of modern  technology have  been achieved with nega-




tive effects that are increasingly apparent.   Throughout most of




man's cultural development,  technology's effects (both direct and




indirect) have generally displayed a direct  relationship between the




technology itself and consequent human harm.   Within the last cen-




tury, however, technology has become so complex and pervasive that it




is no longer possible to see direct causal links between single tech-




nologies or groups of technologies and specific environmental harms.




The presence, for instance,  of organic carcinogens in the air and




water results from a plethora of technological activities rather than




one technology or family of  technologies.  In  essence, the environ-




ment has been altered as a result of the activities of technology—




changes in types and levels  of noise, changes  in the chemistry of air




and water, artificial substances in food, changed life-styles, and




improved methods for protection from disease and injury.




     The pervasiveness of technology, its undesirable side products




and the geographic extent of resultant problems have increasingly led




government to assume a regulatory role to protect health and welfare.




The Federal role has evolved since environmental problems transcend




state and regional boundaries (as in air quality degradation that




often cuts across state lines, particularly in urban and industrial-




ized areas),  are related to  interstate commerce (as in the case of




aircraft emissions),  or are  covered under long-standing Federal
                                 15

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legislation such as the Rivers and Harbors Act of 1899.  Some Federal




legislation sets minimum standards, while delegating regulatory




authority to the states.  Under the Clean Water Act of 1977 (PL




95-217), point source discharges are subject to both Federal and




state regulations.  However, states with qualified programs can take




over the permit program of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimina-




tion System (NPDES).  Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (PL




91-604), the Environmental Protection Agency was charged with estab-




lishing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), although




states were left the prerogative of establishing stricter standards




(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980).




     The current generation of regulatory enactments and amendments




has problems such as defining risk and quantifying its "acceptable"




levels (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980).  Environmental




regulations often present conflicts among energy, economic and envi-




ronmental imperatives.  Frequently conflicting with industry's aims,




they can also be complex and lead to increased costs.  For example,




the expense of environmental control technology must be borne by




industry.  This expense, added to rising costs for energy, taxes,




labor and land, may make it impossible for businesses to realize




sufficient profit to continue.  In the older industrialized portions




of the country, businesses requiring major reconstruction to meet




environmental regulations may find it more profitable to relocate to




the Sunbelt where costs are lower for labor, taxes and energy, and
                                 16

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where environmental control requirements may be less stringent.  Such




relocations would have two results.  The local economy losing the




industry would suffer economic losses, including the loss of jobs,




and the area gaining the industry would experience economic gains.




The area losing the industry would experience less pollution while




the area gaining the industry would experience more.




     In most instances, the current environmental regulatory frame-




work has grown by a process of accretion, with regulations promul-




gated and amended as need was perceived either as a result of prolif-




eration of new technology, industrial development of a new region, or




real or apparent causal relationships between technology and environ-




mental hazards.




     This development of environmental regulation by specific




responses to specific perceived problems has resulted in  a com-




plexity in which the regulatory measures themselves may have created




environmental or other problems.  Hence, the use of catalytic con-




verters on new model automobiles to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions




results in the atmospheric formation of sulfuric acid mist. Blamed




for a variety of adverse effects, this pollutant reacts with lime-




stone in buildings to form gypsum, which erodes easily.  It also




damages crops and affects the human respiratory system (The MITRE




Corporation 1980).




     Similarly, the use of unleaded gasoline to reduce lead emissions




requires that refineries use more energy to produce a fuel with a
                                  17

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sufficient octane rating.  Logically, this increased energy use would




contribute to the nation's energy problem, adding to the need for




imported crude oil.




     In an attempt to eliminate or reduce the complexity of environ-




mental regulations while making them more appropriate or responsive




to emerging needs, a second-generation regulatory phase is in order.




This second-generation process could begin with a comprehensive




review of current legislation and regulations to identify and elimi-




nate unnecessary overlap and actual or potential conflicts.  Of




particular importance is the identification of areas where conflict-




ing national goals have led to conflicting environmental legislation




so that goals can be prioritized.  In many cases, different regions




of the country may have different economic and/or environmental




goals, justifying different regulatory emphases.  In addition, as a




result of varied demographic characteristics and values, "acceptable"




levels of a given environmental hazard may vary in different regions




of the country.




     The remaining two subsections of this section discuss relation-




ships between human activity, attitudes and attributes, along with




consequent vulnerabilities to environmental hazards and the influ-




ence of individual and collective perceptions on responses to poten-




tial environmental hazards.
                                 18

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2.3  Relationships of Activity, Attitudes and Attributes with
     Environmental Hazards

     Human social systems involve a series of interactions among

three functional variables:  activities, attitudes and attributes.

These functional variables in turn interact with the environment and

determine individual and collective responses to the environment and

its hazards at any given time.  Figure 1 depicts the interactions

among these functional variables and the environment.  The variables

and their significance are discussed below, followed by a more

extensive discussion of specific population attributes and their role

in interactions between society and the environment.

     2.3.1  Functional Societal Variables

     One's relationship with the environment is a function of where

and how one works, lives and plays (activities); of one's values and

goals (attitudes); and of attributes such as age, sex and education

that determine one's role in society.  Individuals and groups inter-

act with the environment while producing and consuming both goods and

services.  These interactions can result in pollution.  Contact with

this pollution or with other environmental hazards poses a potential

for harm from these hazards.  The probability of harm for individuals

is a result of contact with the hazards of the environment and of

vulnerability to the harm represented by the hazards.  Vulnerability

and the duration and degree of contact with a pollutant will vary,

depending on one's life-style and activities as well as demographic

factors such as age, sex and education.  For example, those who work


                                 19

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                          Population Attributes
                        Determining Vulnerability
• Age
• Sex
• Genetics
                               Location
                               Preexisting Disease
                               Other
 Environmental
   Hazard
• Air Pollutants
• Water
  Pollutants
• Noise"
» Radiation
               Contact
                 with
               Hazard
  Jeopardy
           Human
           Activity

        • Occupation
        • Recreation
        • Habits
        • Other
Intervening
Perceptions
                                i
                             Consequent
                          Probability of Harm
Attitudes

Values
Desires
Education
Other
                                                            T
                                     Perception of
                                      Jeopardy
                            FIGURE 1
INTERACTIONS AMONG FUNCTIONAL SOCIETAL VARIABLES
              AND ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY
                                20

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with asbestos or use certain hair dryers run a greater risk of harm




from asbestos than others who avoid asbestos at work and at home.




Moreover, smokers who inhale asbestos fibers are more vulnerable to




lung damage from asbestos than are nonsmokers.




     The activities of members of a population and population attri-




butes (demographic factors) provide indicators of the population's




tendency to come in contact with hazards and its vulnerability.




Furthermore, by looking at changes in demographic variables, it is




possible to estimate changes in contact with hazards and in the




probability of harm for various populations or subpopulations.




Section 4 demonstrates a methodology for determining quantitatively




how vulnerability and the collective probability of harm change with




change in population patterns.




     In addition to activities and attributes, the attitudes or




values of a society; culture or population can play a strong role in




determining an "acceptable" probability of harm.  For example, some




parts of the country such as northern New England or the Rocky




Mountains have come to represent a last wilderness or semi-wild




frontier in terms of living close to nature without the trappings of




high technology.  As a result of this perception, many individuals




have opted for life in a high quality "clean" environment rather than




for one in more polluted surroundings with greater opportunity for




economic gain.  These individuals will tend to accept a lower proba-




bility of harm from environmental hazards than will individuals who
                                  21

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 have chosen to remain in less pristine areas for economic reasons.




 By the same token, individuals in a highly industrialized sector of




 the country, when faced with a choice between a higher probability of




 harm or a lower employment potential, will probably opt for accepting




 the higher probability of harm.




     Demographic factors, or population attributes, such as popula-




 tion size and density, spatial distribution, and social and economic




 composition, help to determine the productive and consumptive activ-




 ities of populations as well as many of their values or attitudes.




 For example, a large and crowded population, living in an urban cen-




 ter, working at industrial jobs and playing as spectators of stadium




 sports and television programs, will come in contact with different




 levels and kinds of pollutants than will a small and sparse popula-




 tion, living in a small town, working at commercial jobs and playing




 as participants of field and stream sports.  Moreover, if one of




 these two hypothetical populations, on the average, is considerably




 older or smokes and drinks considerably more than the other, its




 vulnerability to some kinds of harm may be greater.




     Vulnerability involves physiological and psychological condi-




 tions that predispose an individual to harm and, as such, it is




 related to demographic and socioeconomic variables that influence




 those conditions.   In the case of physiological conditions, age, sex,




genetic variables  and personal habits are the most prevalent factors




influencing  vulnerability.  Smoking and drinking are the personal
                                 22

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habits most often pointed to as having an influence on vulnerability,




while education, income and marital status have been used as indica-




tors of general health care and resultant condition of health.  The




present state of knowledge about the relationships between population




attributes and vulnerability to environmental harm is not especially




well developed.  Statistical associations of morbidity and mortality




with conditions of environmental degradation have been documented;




however, etiological relationships are not completely understood.




The following subsection summarizes some of what is currently known




about the relationships between population attributes and potential




vulnerability to environmental harm.




     2.3.2  Population Variables and Vulnerability




     Vulnerability to disease, including that caused or prompted by




environmental pollution, tends to vary with population attributes or




variables (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980).  These variables are indica-




tors of conditions that predispose individuals to disease or of a




higher probability of existing disease that may be aggravated by con-




tact with environmental pollution.  Research efforts are beginning to




clarify the relationships between population attributes and vulnera-




bility.




     2.3.2.1  Age.  The incidence and prevalence of heart disease,




lung disease and cancer have all been shown to increase with advanced




age (Miller 1976).  Correlation between age and disease prevalence




does not necessarily imply a direct one-to-one causal relationship,
                                 23

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since increasing age results in increased contact with occupational




and environmental agents of harm and to psychologically stressful




situations.  However, there is also physiological change associated




with the aging process and, in those cases where increased contact




with harmful agents is not a factor and age is directly associated




with vulnerability, pollution may cause or promote disease in older




individuals.  In those cases where the age-disease relationship is a




function of past contact with pollution, continued or renewed contact




may cause, promote or aggravate the disease.




     Developmental stages or life cycle phases are related to age in




that these stages are chronological phenomena.  In some instances,




specific stages are associated with predisposition to certain pollu-




tion or environmentally related diseases.  The prenatal state, for




instance, is associated with greater vulnerability to teratogenic




and/or carcinogenic effects of chemical agents that can pass through




the placental barrier.  Most teratogenic effects are induced during




the first three months of development when the fetus is undergoing




organ formation (National Academy of Sciences 1975).  Physiological




changes associated with puberty tend to correlate with increased vul-




nerability to cancers and with increased sensitivity to nitrogen




oxides (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980).




     2.3.2.2  Sex.  Differences in vulnerability due to sex may be a




result of one or more of many aspects of sexual differences, includ-




ing:  variations in personal habits such as drinking or smoking,
                                 24

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differences in occupational exposure and internal biochemical differ-




ences as a result of a different hormone balance.  Representing a




larger share of  those who work directly with dangerous chemicals,




males could logically be expected  to come in contact with such occu-




pational hazards more frequently than females.  For females, estrogen




may influence the development of breast, ovarian, and uterine cancer,




while, on the other hand, its presence may raise an individual's tol-




erance level for certain carcinogens (Hushon and Ghovanlou  1980).  In




the past, males  have contracted lung cancer more frequently than




females because  of a greater tendency to smoke cigarettes, although




females have been closing this gap.




     2.3.2.3  Genetic Factors.  High levels of vulnerability to var-




ious diseases have been demonstrated to correlate with genetic inher-




itance.  However, in studies based on family groups, common disease




vulnerability may be due to inherited factors, a common contact with




an environmental harm, or both.  Nevertheless, inheritance of disease




vulnerability has been established, although the specific interaction




of environmental factors is not usually known (Anderson 1975, Hushon




and Ghovanlou 1980).  A number of  precancerous and cancerous condi-




tions have been shown to be related to heredity (Lynch and Kaplan




1974).  In addition to cancer, diseases such as diabetes mellitus,




anemias, allergies and asthmas to  which one is genetically predis-




posed may also result in a predisposition to the effects of chemical




pollutants (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980).
                                  25

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      2.3.2.4  Personal Habits.  Dietary patterns and the use of




 tobacco, drugs and alcohol are personal habits that tend to be asso-




 ciated with vulnerability to disease and to the effects of environ-




 mental pollutants.  Tobacco smoking has been shown to be related to




 lung  cancer, chronic bronchitis, emphysema and coronary heart disease




 (Hammond 1975).  There is also a synergistic relationship between




 smoking and inhaling asbestos and possibly other airborne particles




 and fibers.  Alcohol consumption appears to be related to cancers of




 the stomach, liver and rectum, and acts synergistically with smoking




 to promote or cause cancers of the larynx, oropharynx, oral cavity




 and esophagus.  In addition, alcohol consumption may increase vulner-




 ability to organic solvent poisoning and may contribute to nutri-




 tional deficiency which in turn may increase the risk of environ-




 mentally related cancers.




 2.4   Probability of Harm




      Man's perception of the probability that he will be harmed plays




 a vital role in determining what may be an acceptable level of an




 environmental hazard.  The environmental regulatory milieu discussed




 earlier represents an institutionalized system to control the prob-




 ability of harm for the populace.  Implicit in this body of regula-




 tions is the assumption that the government has decided on acceptable




 level for certain pollutants.  However, regulations are established




 through a complex process involving judgments about the relative




benefits  and costs of various innovations and activities of
                                 26

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technology—costs  in terms of environmental hazards and benefits in

terms of economics, convenience and  so forth, with both being mea-

sured ultimately in terms of the quality of life.

     This paper attempts to provide  both a theoretical framework and

a methodological basis for the promulgation of a second-generation

body of environmental legislation that fine-tunes our current regula-

tory apparatus to  take into account  the different needs, vulnerabil-

ities, tendencies  to come in contact with pollutants and values of

people in different parts of the country in determining an acceptable

probability of harm.

     2.4.1  Relationships Between Probability of Harm,
            Vulnerability and Contact with a Harmful Agent

     Probability of harm is a complex concept that attempts to cap-

ture an even more  complex reality.   The kinds of harms involved are

numerous and varied and not all are  caused or promoted by technol-

ogy.  The levels of harm that can befall a population can be acute or

chronic and range  from minor problems to death.

     One population may be willing to accept a higher probability of

harm than another.  An important determining factor is whether con-

tact with a hazard is voluntary.  For a given level of perceived

benefit, a greater probability of harm is likely to be accepted if

contact with a hazard is voluntary rather than involuntary.  There

are numerous other considerations, including knowledge or ignorance

of a harmful agent.
                                  27

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     2.4.2  Probability of Harm:  Perceptions and Acceptability

     Human societies have faced a certain probability of harm from

environmental hazards since our first ancestor was consciously aware

of the potential dangers and benefits of his technology and his

environment.  For much of man's evolution, he faced mostly natural

environmental harms—primarily earthquakes, storms, tidal waves and

diseases.  The proliferation of technology brought with it new

sources of harm which have become increasingly prevalent and perva-

sive within the past century with increases in the role and complex-

ity of technology.

     Individual and group perceptions will determine to a large

extent what will be permitted as an acceptable probability of harm.

Such perceptions depend on a variety of internal and external factors

such as age, sex, ethnic background, experience, frequency of contact

with a given substance or event, knowledge and availability of infor-

mation.  Perceptions may conflict with reality (Velimirovic 1975).

An example of the differences in perception is given by Otway et al.

(1975) in a hypothetical comparison between an activity with an acci-

dent probability of 1 per year with 1 fatality per accident, and an

activity with 1 million fatalities per accident but an accident prob-

ability of 1 in 1 million years.  Statistically, both situations have

the same probability of harm since they result on the average in one

fatality per year.  However, due to various intervening factors

including level of occurrence, societal perceptions of the two situa-

tions would differ greatly.
                                 28

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     For the purposes of this study, some generalizations about prob-




ability of harm proposed by Velimirovic (1975) are germane.  Man is




basically conservative and will try to avoid danger associated with




the new and unknown, yet will submit to danger to maintain the status




quo.  When prestige is gained from technological advances, man is




willing to be placed in jeopardy to achieve social gratification.




Man's concern for an issue, and hence his perception of the probabil-




ity that he will be harmed, is a function of distance, time and fre-




quency.  Finally, voluntary contact with a harmful agent is generally




tolerated more readily than if contact were involuntary, although the




existence of some level of control over the outcome of the involun-




tary tends to increase acceptance.




     Overall, there is a paucity of knowledge regarding behavior




responses and attitudes toward probability of harm from environmental




hazards.  Further research into the areas suggested by Velimirovic




(1975) would provide more knowledge from a behavioral viewpoint.




Much of what is currently known is reviewed by Rowe (1975), Slovic et




al. (1975) and Otway et al. (1975), as well as Velimirovic (1975).
                                  29

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3.0  DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY




     The general discussion of the relationships between probability




of harm, vulnerability and contact with a harmful agent presented in




the preceding section suggests that changing population patterns and




trends in the United States may result in important changes in pollu-




tion, contact, vulnerability and jeopardy.  Demographic factors hav-




ing the clearest implications for environmental harm are occupation,




location and age.




     This section examines demographic trends and their environmental




implications at the national level and for three regions of the coun-




try.  Detailed population data presented in the Appendix serve as a




basis for the observations presented.  The conclusions reached here




are based on recent trends and projections.  The trends could change,




which would affect the validity of the conclusions.  For example,




population projections for the South do not consider the recent




influx of Cuban refugees, who may be younger and heartier than the




retirees who have been flocking to the Sunbelt.  For this reason, any




mechanism to utilize demographic data in the regulatory process




should allow for frequent updates with new projections.




3.1  Generalized Implications of National Demographic Trends




     For the nation as a whole, the authors believe projected trends




in employment and residence suggest that people will work and live in




environments that now offer lower pollution levels than do the local-




ities from which shifts will occur.  Projected trends in population
                                 31

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age distribution, however, suggest the likelihood of a lower  toler-

ance for certain pollutants since the national population is

expected, on the average, to grow older.*  The resultant compound

implication appears to be a reduced probability of harm for the

population as a whole since many older retirees will tend to move  to

Sunbelt states.**  Despite their increased vulnerability, the

elderly will incur less exposure to environmental harm there  since

lower emissions are projected.

     National trends in employment suggest that the proportion of

workers engaged in potentially hazardous employment such as farm and

blue-collar jobs is decreasing.**   This may be offset, however,

by an absolute increase in the size of the work force due to  popula-

tion increases.  Trends in residence parallel those for employment,

with people moving to regions with less potential hazard or to rural

or suburban localities where environmental hazards are less.  The

relative proportion of persons living in the more polluted industria-

lized regions of the country such as the Northeast and the Midwest is

decreasing.  The number residing in the more polluted metropolitan

areas is also decreasing as more people move to suburban and  rural

areas.      Finally, many of those escaping the polluted
   *See Appendix, Table A-3.
  **See Appendix, Table A-6.
 ***See Appendix, Table A-5.
****See Appendix, Table A-8.
                                  32

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industrialized and urban areas represent the more vulnerable elderly

and young, as retired workers move to the Sunbelt and young dependent

children move to the suburbs.

     The trend toward an older population carries with it a mixed but

mostly less favorable set of implications.  On the one hand, fewer

women are having children and family size is decreasing, resulting in

a shrinking proportion of children under age 5 with resultant reduced

potential for genetic and somatic harm from environmental hazards for

this group compared to what it might have been.  On the other hand,

as the average age of the population increases  due to increasing

longevity, more men and women enter the range of greater vulnera-

bility to many of the harms associated with environmental pollution.

     These general population trends seem to imply an overall reduc-

tion in the probability of harm for individuals in the United States

as a result of reduced exposure.  However, as a result of a projected

population increase   and projected increased average age of the

population, the total number of persons harmed by pollutants may

increase.

     In addition, it has been pointed out earlier and it will be

emphasized in the regional data and projections in the Appendix, that

the population of the United States will continue to display hetero-

geneity with regard to demographic factors affecting vulnerability to
 *See Appendix, Table A-3.
**See Appendix, Table A-l.
                                 33

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harm from environmental hazards and contact with those hazards.




Therefore, some individuals may face a greater probability of harm




than others.




     To be specific, the incidence of pollution-related illnesses




should tend to increase among the growing numbers of older, more




vulnerable persons, especially those older individuals who remain in




the more industrial and urban areas of the nation.  On the other




hand, illness rates should be expected to proportionately decrease




among the increasing numbers of people, both young and old, who flee




from industrialized areas to the relatively less polluted areas of




the country.  In the final analysis, those who do not escape the




environmental degradation of the factory and the city will, as now,




suffer the greater probability of harm from environmental hazard.




And, as now, this group can be expected to include a disproportionate




percentage of the economically and educationally disadvantaged—the




poor, those with less education, those in blue-collar and urban-




oriented service jobs, and those in basic and heavy industry.




     In summary, younger men and women in the work force probably




face a lower probability of harm than did previous generations.  On




the average, they have safer jobs and surroundings.  Moreover, they




will enjoy advances in pollution control measures and health care




that benefit their generation more than their older predecessors.




The younger workers are in better health and are less vulnerable to




environmental hazards because of their generation as well as their




age.




                                 34

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3.2  Generalized Implications of Regional Demographic Trends



     Although national and regional analyses provide a broad perspec-



tive on the implications of demographic trends for potential harm, an



environmental hazard is often a more localized phenomenon.  There-



fore, three census divisions have been selected to represent varying



regional trends.



     The three census divisions selected for analysis in this section



are the Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic and Mountain divisions.  The



Middle Atlantic division statistics reflect a low population growth



resulting from declining industrial activity of the Northeast.  The



South Atlantic and Mountain divisions represent areas of rapid pop-


                 &
ulation increase.   Factors underlying the growth of these divi-



sions differ, creating significant variation in the changing popula-



tion composition and in associated implications for the probability



of harm from environmental hazards.  Specifically, growth in the



South Atlantic division has been generally attributed to the Sunbelt



phenomenon—the migration of people to areas of milder climate for



retirement and recreation.  The Mountain division, however, is gain-



ing population as a result of resource development in response to



critical national energy needs.



     3.2.1  South Atlantic Census Division



     In the South Atlantic Census Division, the national trend in age



composition is amplified by an influx of increasing numbers of
 See Appendix, Tables A-9 and A-16.



                                  35

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                                                                             New
                                                                           England
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1972.
                                     FIGURE2
                     CENSUS DIVISIONS OF THE UNITED STATES

-------
retirees.   The national trend of a proportional increase in sub-

urban and rural residence is muted, and the occupational trend of

proportionally fewer employees in hazardous occupations is only

partially echoed.**  While there is a comparative shift away from

blue-collar manufacturing employment in this region of the country, a

larger percentage of working age men and women are participating in

the labor force.     Manufacturing is growing more rapidly in the

South Atlantic division than in the nation.  While the probability of

harm from environmental hazards may be lower in the South Atlantic

division than in such areas as the Middle Atlantic division, this

probability will increase through the year 2000.

     Outside of the workplace, the potential for harm associated with

environmental exposure is probably increasing in the South Atlantic

division.  Certainly the age, and probably with age the vulnera-

bility, of this growing population is increasing.****  Moreover,

the metropolitan areas of the South Atlantic division are maintaining
                                   JL ^u JL Jm Jg
their 1970 share of the population.       Larger numbers of persons

will come in contact with pollution and consequent hazards that are

likely to be associated with the growing urban and industrial areas
    *See Appendix, Tables A-10 and A-ll.
   **See Appendix, Tables A-12 and A-15.
  ***See Appendix, Tables A-14 (occupation) and A-13 (labor force
     by sex).
 ****See Appendix, Table A-ll.
*****See Appendix, Table A-12.
                                  37

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of this region and a comparatively greater number of these persons




will be age 65 and over.




     These patterns of employment and age are particularly evident in




Florida, where population and industry are growing at about two to




three times the national rates and the proportion of elderly in the




population is approaching twice that for the nation as a whole.  Fur-




thermore, while the proportion of the population living in metropol-




itan areas has dropped slightly in recent years, in Florida the




proportion of metropolitan residents is 20 percent higher than in the




rest of the country.  The basic implication of these trends is clear:




the probability of harm from environmental hazards appears to be




increasing in Florida where there is an expanding elderly population.




     3.2.2  Mountain Census Division




     Trends in occupation, location and age in the Mountain Census




Division are similar to those of the South Atlantic division, except




that the average age is not rising as fast as it is in the South




Atlantic division.  In fact, the proportion of elderly persons in the




Mountain division is less than in the nation as a whole.*  As with




the South Atlantic division, the Mountain division has not experi-




enced the degree of population shift to nonmetropolitan residences




that is being demonstrated in the nation as a whole.  However, the
*See Appendix, Table A-18, as compared with Table A-3.
                                  38

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proportion of its population  living  in metropolitan areas over the

past decade is  9 percent lower  than  in the nation as a whole.*

     The Mountain division  is experiencing increases in both male and

female labor force participation rates, contrary to the decline in

the male rate occurring nationally,  and in recent years manufacturing

industries in the region have grown  at about three times the national

rate.    The implications for the probability of harm associated

with occupational hazard and  exposure are similar in the rapidly

growing South Atlantic and  Mountain  divisions.

     For both the South Atlantic and Mountain divisions, jeopardy

seems to be increasing and  the  situation is likely to get worse,

especially in the mountain  states, as more and more energy resources

are developed and energy-intensive industry moves to the region.  The

probability of harm from environmental hazards both inside and

outside of the work place is likely  to increase as pollution and the

number of persons subjected to  pollutants increase in growing urban

and industrial areas.

     3.2.3  Middle Atlantic Census Division

     The Middle Atlantic Census Division has an aging population that

is moving away from metropolitan areas and its employment base is

shifting from manufacturing industries.     As appears to be the
  *See Appendix, Table A-19, as compared with Table A-8.
 **See Appendix, Tables A-20 (labor force by sex) and A-22
    (industry).
***See Appendix, Tables A-25 (age), A-26 (shift from metropolitan
    areas) and A-29 (industry).

                                 39

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case for the nation as a whole, the probability of harm from environ-


mental and occupational hazards may be on the decline in the Middle

Atlantic division.  The trend of increased participation in the labor

force echoes those in the South Atlantic and Mountain divisions, with

the male participation rate increasing somewhat and the female rate


jumping from 33.1 percent in 1960 to 49.7 percent in 1976.*  How-

ever, workers are likely to face fewer occupational hazards since the

proportion of jobs in manufacturing has decreased, along with the

absolute number of workers at these kinds of jobs.**  While manu-

facturing employment in the nation increased by about 8 percent

between 1972 and 1978, it shrank by nearly 13 percent between 1970

and 1976 in the Middle Atlantic division.  Even with these opposite

changes, however, the division still had a larger proportion of its

workers employed in manufacturing.   While occupational contact with

harmful substances may be declining, it is still probably higher than

in the nation as a whole.

     The same is the case for environmental contact associated with

residence in the Middle Atlantic division.  While the region experi-

enced a relative and absolute decline in metropolitan residency in

the 1970s,  the proportion of the total population living in metropol-

itan areas  was about 20 percent higher in the division than in the

nation.***
  *See Appendix, Table A-27.
 **See Appendix, Table A-29.
Jf JL *U
   See Appendix, Table A-26.
                                 40

-------
     With people—especially the elderly—moving from the Middle




Atlantic division to other areas, vulnerability to environmental




hazards should decrease there.  As with the nation as a whole,




workers and others who remain in the division will be in less




jeopardy due to the lower pollution levels made possible with new




control measures and advances in general health care that will




benefit their generation more than their predecessors.
                                  41

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4.0  ENVIRONMENTAL DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

     Recent projections of future environmental trends indicate that,

by the year 2000, particulate emissions are expected to be compar-

able in the states of Pennsylvania and Florida due to improvement

in Pennsylvania and deterioration in Florida, compared with 1975

levels.*  Concurrent projections of population trends indicate

that, while the age 65 and over populations of these two states were

roughly the same in 1975, by 2000 the elderly population of Pennsyl-

vania will have increased only slightly and that of Florida will have

more than doubled (U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b).

     Evidence indicates that the elderly are more sensitive to air

pollutants than the general population (Calabrese 1978).  If one also

accepts emissions as a surrogate for air quality, one might expect a

greater incidence of particulate-related health problems in Florida

than in Pennsylvania by 2000 as a partial consequence of Florida's

larger elderly population.  This simplistic argument excludes consid-

eration of factors such as climate and previous exposure.  Neverthe-

less, it does suggest that when demographic changes are considered in

conjunction with pollutant emission trends, a more precise picture of

future environmental protection needs will emerge than when pollutant

data alone are considered.
*Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980 High Growth
 Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
 (SEAS) produced for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1980).
                                 43

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     This paper has a dual purpose:   to examine the changing rela-

tionships of populations to technology and the environment;  and to

explore the potential role of demographic trends as a viable factor

in planning for the environmental future.  As part of this explora-

tion, a conceptual framework has been presented linking technologi-

cal development and consequent environmental degradation to social

factors such as human activities; attitudes and values; and attri-

butes such as age, location, health,  genetics and habits.   In this

section, the elderly subpopulation is singled out to illustrate the

way in which relationships between environmental factors and demo-

graphic trends might be used to provide input to the development of

environmental policies.

4.1  Air Pollution:  An Example of Environmental Demographic
     Analysis

     The discussions in Sections 2 and 3 of general implications

associated with population changes explored the variables of contact

with harmful agents and vulnerability without reference to particular

kinds of hazards.  To specifically illustrate the relationships

between population change and change  in probability of harm, air pol-

lution is explored in the following discussion.

     This section provides general background information on major

air pollutants and their adverse health effects, discusses the gen-

eral implications and presents a discussion of projected air pol-

lution trends emphasizing changes in net emissions expected at the

national level and in each of the three census divisions discussed in


                                 44

-------
Section 3.  Section 4.2 contains specific examples of methodologies




for quantitatively relating demographic factors to the probability of




harm from environmental hazards for a specific locality.  For the




Tampa-St. Petersburg area, a probabilistic methodology is used to




predict contact with harmful agents.  For Salt Lake County, Utah, an




econometric methodology is used to relate empirical projections in




mortality that can be attributed to projected changes in pollutants.




     The two methodologies are offered as illustrations—not as




precise measures of relationships between pollution levels and demo-




graphic characteristics in the areas analyzed.  Problems of inade-




quate data and an incomplete understanding of the relationships




between pollutants and health, mentioned above, prevent precision in




environmental demography at this time.




     4.1.1  Health Effects of Major Air Pollutants




     Several major air pollutants are recognized as having adverse




health effects, as summarized in Table 1.  The cost to the nation of




the health effects of air pollution have been investigated by a num-




ber of authors and reviewed extensively by Freeman (1979) and by




Linnerooth (1975).  Crocker et al. (1979) estimated, for instance,




that a pollution reduction of 60 percent would result in health bene-




fits equivalent to $59.1 billion in 1978 dollars.  Other estimates,




cited by Crocker et al. (1979), assumed less pollution reduction and




lower dollar savings.
                                 45

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                                                   TABLE  1

                              SELECTED STUDIES  OF  HEALTH  EFFECTS
                                      OF  MAJOR AIR  POLLUTANTS
     Pollutants
                                 Target
                               Population
     Covariates
   Participates,           U.S. SMSAs3
     sulfates
   Sulfur dioxide
  Sulfur dioxide
  Particulates,
    sulfur dioxide
  Sulfur dioxide
  Particulates
                         Chicago, Denver,
                           Philadelphia,  St.
                           Louis, Washington,
                           D.C.

                         U.S. SMSAs
                         U.S. SMSAs;  male,
                           white,  over 65
                         New York City
  Smoke shade,            New York City
    sulfur dioxide
  Smoke shade,            New York City
    sulfur dioxide
                         New York Metro-
                           politan region
                         Buffalo,  N.Y.
Population, popu-
  lation density,
  age, race, income
Weather, day of the
  week
Temperature,  precip-
  itation,  humidity,
  age, race,  sex,
  socioeconomic
  factors

Various climatic,
  demographic,  and
  socioeconomic
  factors

Weather
Weather,  day of
  the week
Temperature,
  epidemics,  disas-
  ters,  holidays,
  days of the week,
  time trends

Age,  sex, race,
  income
A 10 percent  reduction in minimum bi-
  weekly sulfate and mean biweekly par-
  ticulates associated with 0.91 percent
  reduction in  mortality

A decrease of 0.092 ppm in the mean con-
  centration  of sulfur dioxide associated
  with a decrease of 63 deaths per day
  (Chicago)

Sulfur dioxide  found significant in
  explaining  mortality rates
Found significant association between  sul-
  fates and  mortality from arterioscler-
  otic heart disease and cancer of
  respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts

Found significant association between  sul-
  fur dioxide and particulate levels and
  mortality  from respiratory and heart
  disease

Found association of daily mortality with
  sulfur dioxide stronger than with any
  weather variable

Between 18.12 and 36.76 excess deaths  per,
  day associated with air pollution; 80
  percent of effect ascribed to smoke
  shade, 20  percent to sulfur dioxide

Found association between sulfur dioxide
  levels and residual mortality
                                                                         Mortality from chronic  respiratory disease
                                                                           found twice as high at  high as at low
                                                                           particulate levels
aStandard Metropolitan Statistical  Area.
                                                       46

-------
TABLE 1 (Continued)
Pollutants



Particulates

Particulates,
soiling, dust,
sulfur dioxide,
sulfation


Particulates ,
soiling, dust,
sulfur dioxide,
sulfation


Particulates ,
sulfur dioxide,
sulfation
Particulates ,
sulfur dioxide

Soiling


Particulates ,
sulfation

Nitrogen dioxide


Nitrogen dioxide


Nitrogen dioxide


Target
Population
Buffalo N.Y.


Buffalo, N.Y.

Nashville, Tenn.





Nashville, Tenn.





Nashville, Tenn.


Los Angeles, Calif.


Allegheny County
(Pittsburgh)

Berlin, N.H. , and
Chilliweek, B.C.

Chattanooga, Tenn. ,
school children

Chattanooga, Tenn. ,
school children

Parents of
Chattanooga, Tenn. ,
school children
Covariates

Age, sex,

Age, sex, race ,
income

Age , sex, race ,
income




Age, sex, race,
income




Age, sex, race,


Weather


Weather, day of
the week

Smoking


Smoking , socio-
economic factors

Years of exposure


Smoking, age,
sex, race

Results

cancer found twice as high at high as
at low particulate levels
Found association between particulate
disease, and cirrhosis of the liver
Found association between soiling and
sulfur dioxide and total morbidity and
cardiovascular disease morbidity;
association between sulfation, dust-
fall, and particulates and cardio-
vascular disease in females
Found association between particulates
and cardiovascular mortality In
females; association between soiling
and sulfation and mortality from
respiratory disease, but not lung
cancer
Found association between pollutant levels
esophagus, stomach and bladder, but not
lung cancer
Found significant association between pol-
lutant levels and disease-specific hos-
pital admissions and lengths of stay
Doubling of soiling index associated with
22-percent increase in admissions for
respiratory emergency
Found association between particulate
and sulfation levels and Incidence of
chronic respiratory disease
Rates of acute respiratory illness found
higher In areas with high nitrogen
dioxide levels
Found association between exposure to
nitrogen dioxide and incidence of
bronchitis
No association found between nitrogen
dioxide and chronic bronchitis

        47

-------
                                                               TABLE  1  (Concluded)
                     Pollutants
        Target
      Population
                                                                         Covariates
                                                                                                             Results
                  Nitrogen dioxide
                  Photochemical
                    oxidants
                  Photochemical
                    oxidants
                  Carbon monoxide
U.S. SMSAs, white
  males and females
  over 65
School children in
  Los Angeles, Calif.
Student nurses in
  Los Angeles, Calif.
                                          Los Angeles County
Weather, socio-
  economic factors
Not provided
Nitrogen dioxide,
  carbon monoxide,
  temperature

Oxidants, tempera-
  ture
00
Mortality from hypertensive  heart  disease
  increased by about 200 per 100,000;
  lung cancer increased by 50 percent  for
  males, and 130 percent for females upon
  increasing nitrogen dioxide levels from
  0.03 to 0.08 ppm

Found no significant association between
  oxidant levels and school  absenteeism
  due to respiratory illness

Developed thresholds for several health
  symptoms
                                                  Found significant  association  between
                                                    daily mortality  and  carbon monoxide,
                                                    but not oxidants
                  Carbon monoxide
                                          Not provided
                          Not provided
                        Found association between carbon  monoxide
                          and angina and intermittent
                          claudication
                  Non-specific
                    air pollution
                  Benzo-a-pyrene
                  Oxidants,
                    nitrogen dioxide,
                    carbon monoxide
Students at seven
  California
  universities
U.S. and 19 other
  countries
                                          California
Climatic and
  socioeconomic
  variables, holi-
  days ,  chronic
  conditions

Not provided
                          Not provided
Found association between air pollution
  and excess incidence of respiratory
  illness
An increase of 1 microgram per 1,000 cubic
  meters in concentration of benzo-a-
  pyrene was associated with 5 percent
  increase in mortality from lung cancer

Developed a series of dose-effect func-
  tions on the basis of expert opinions
                  Source:   Adapted from Hershaft et al. 1976.

-------
     An examination of the principal sources of major air pollutants




suggests that they are inherent in our industrial-metropolitan life-




style and in our cultural dependence upon fossil resources for energy




and raw feedstocks.  It can be expected that persons most closely




associated with industrial activity or metropolitan areas will inhale




the greatest quantity of air pollutants and consequently suffer the




greatest probability of harm.




     4.1.2  General Health Implications




     Danger to human health associated with air pollution appears to




be declining for the population as a whole since air pollution is




being abated and populations are migrating from the most polluted




areas.  Although vulnerability to air pollutants is increasing as the




average age of the population increases, greater sensitivity may be




more than compensated for by reduced inhalation of pollutants as




people migrate from polluted areas and experience less occupational




contact with hazardous fumes.




     On the regional level, some areas will experience increases in




air pollution as a result of population increases.  With recent




declines in fertility and birth rates, regional population growth has




increasingly become a function of interregional migration, with the




result that many persons in the faster growing regions once lived in




regions with larger populations and higher air pollution levels.  For




the individual, the increasing levels of air pollution in the growing




regions represent relatively less hazard.  A majority of individuals
                                 49

-------
there are better off in spite of worsening conditions because many of




them moved there from areas of relatively greater air pollution.




This decrease in personal jeopardy, however, does not extend to those




individuals born and raised in growing regions where worsening condi-




tions promise relatively more hazard.




     The long-time residents of regions with worsening conditions may




find those changes undesirable and unacceptable, especially since




many of them were attracted to the region by clean air when they




moved there from a more polluted region 10 or 20 years ago.  These




early migrants, their offspring and other native-born residents




expect cleaner air.  Similarly, recent migrants to these regions will




also expect cleaner air.  The fact that the air is cleaner than that




which they breathed in the past in another region will only bolster




their expectations and cause them to perceive and evaluate worsening




conditions more negatively.   Despite relatively less environmental




danger than would have been experienced, the remaining hazard may be




judged to be less acceptable.




     4.1.3  National and Regional Air Pollution Trends




     4.1.3.1  National Trends.  Between 1975 and 2000, projections of




net emissions of major air pollutants, assuming full compliance with




existing regulations, indicate increases in the oxides of nitrogen




and sulfur and decreases in particulates, hydrocarbons and carbon
                                 50

-------
monoxide as illustrated in Figure 3.*  However, for Federal regions

(pictured in Figure 4 and distinct from the census divisions dis-

cussed above), the pattern will be one of inter-regional hetero-

geneity as shown in Table 2.  The regions in which air pollution is

expected to increase are those experiencing growth in industry and/or

population (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980).  For example,

projected industrial and population growth in the South and West in

2000 can be expected to result in increased air pollutant emission

levels compared to 1975 levels.

     4.1.3.2  Trends in Air Pollution in Selected Areas.  Projected

changes in emissions for the five major air pollutants are summarized

in Table 3 for the nation and for selected Federal regions.  These

and related data were introduced above and are discussed in detail in

Chapter 4 of Environmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Environmental Protec-

tion Agency 1980).  The principal assumptions determining the pro-

jected trends are summarized in Table 4.

     Under the assumption of full compliance with existing regula-

tions, only the net emissions of the oxides of sulfur and nitrogen

are expected to surpass 1975 levels by the year 2000 at the national

level.  However, by 2000, particulates and hydrocarbons are expected

to rise from lows achieved earlier in the period, while carbon

monoxide is expected to decline steadily throughout the period.
*Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980 High Growth
 Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
 (SEAS) produced for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1980).
                                 51

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   1.5
c
g
CO
co
'E
UJ
o
c
o
   1.0
.5
             I Other
             ]Chemicals and Allied Products
             jConstruction Materials
             ^Transportation
             | Industrial Combustion
             I Petroleum Refining
             I Electric Utilities
            1975  2000

            Particulates
                     1975  2000
                       Sulfur
                       Oxides
                                       1975  2000
                                         Nitrogen
                                         Oxides
1975  2000
  Hydro-
 Carbons
1975  2000

  Carbon
 Monoxide
      Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1979.
                                   FIGURES
           NATIONAL TRENDS IN NET EMISSIONS OF MAJOR
                      AIR POLLUTANTS BY SOURCE
                               1975 AND 2000
                                      52

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                                                                                         New England
U>
                                                                            New York-
                                                                            New Jersey
                                                        Puerto Rico
    Federal Regions
  I. New England
  II. New York-New Jersey
  I. Middle Atlantic
 IV. Southeast
  V. Great Lakes
 VI. South Central
VII. Central
VIII. Mountain
 IX. West
  X. Northwest
      Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980.  Virgin Islands
                                                     FIGURE4
                                   FEDERAL REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES

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                                                  TABLE  2

                                             REGIONAL TRENDS
                                  IN  MAJOR AIR  POLLUTION  EMISSIONS
Pollutant
                         Regional  Trends
                                                                Cause
                                           Implications
Particulates       Decline  in  emissions in
                     Federal Regions  II, III,
                     and  V, reduction in
                     Region VII.
                   Slow increase  in  Federal
                     Regions  I, VI,  VII,  IX,
                     and X.
Sulfur Oxides      Decrease  in  Federal Regions
                     II,  III, V,  and  IX.
                   Increase  in  Federal  Regions
                     I,  IV,  VI,  VII,  VIII,
                     and X.
Nitrogen           Increase  in  all  Federal
  Oxides             regions.


Hydrocarbons       Decrease  in  all  Federal
                     regions.

Carbon             Decrease  in  all  Federal
  Monoxide           regions.
Implementation of  control devices     Decrease in potential  of
  on electric utility  and industrial    photochemical  smog and
  boilers.                              health-related effects.

Implementation of  control tech-
  nologies  which reduce  the amount
  of dust created  by the construc-
  tion materials industry.
Increased use of coal  in  the
  electric utility industry tends
  to offset air pollution control
  technologies•

A limited increase in  the number
  of coal-burning facilities  and
  increased compliance with air
  pollution regulations.

Increased number of electric
  utilities and industrial boilers
  burning coal as a source of fuel
  will tend to offset  air pollution
  control requirements.

Increased burning of coal and oil
  by industry.
Compliance with transportation
  emission standards.

Compliance with transportation
  emission standards.
Increase  in  potential for
  atmospheric  acid  rain,
  photochemical  smog and
  health-related effects.

Decrease  in  localized
  respiratory  ailments.
Increase in potential  for
  atmospheric acid rain  and
  localized respiratory
  ailments.
Increase in the potential
  for atmospheric acid rain
  and photochemical smog.

Decrease in the formation
  of photochemical smog.

Reduction in the occurrence
  of short-term health prob-
  lems (such as nausea,
  headaches, dizziness).
Source:  Adapted from U.S.  Environmental Protection  Agency  1980.

-------
Ln
                                                                 TABLE 3

                                       TRENDS IN NET EMISSIONS  OF MAJOR AIR POLLUTANTS
                                                FOR THE  NATION AND SELECTED AREAS
Particulates

United States
Percent of Basea
Percent of Totalb
Middle Atlantic Region
Percent of Base
Percent of Total
Southeast Region
Percent of Base
Percent of Total
West Central Florida AQCR
Percent of Base
Percent of Total
Mountain Region
Percent of Base
Percent of Total
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
17.6
100.0
22.3
100.0
0.3
100.0
3.4
1985
61.0
100.0
40.1
12.2
60.9
21.1
110.7
0.6
93.1
4.4
2000
85.4
100.0
49.8
10.3
97.9
25.4
137.6
0.5
138.3
5.6
Sulfur Oxides
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
14.8
100.0
21.5
100.0
1.7
100.0
2.0
1985
91.2
100.0
83.3
13.7
96.4
22.9
133.2
2.4
137.7
3.0
2000
105.7
100.0
92.7
13.1
107.0
22.0
136.5
2.1
188.5
3.5
Nitrogen Oxides
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
11.8
100.0
16.7
100.0
0.8
100.0
2.7
1985
120.6
100.0
106.3
10.2
118.0
16.4
143.2
0.9
197.9
4.0
2000
142.5
100.0
125.3
10.2
143.3
17.0
174.3
1.0
293.3
5.3
Hydrocarbons
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
10.4
100.0
14.1
100.0
0.7
100.0
3.0
1985
71.8
100.0
63.2
9.3
72.2
14.3
73.0
0.7
79.9
3.1
2000
74.7
100.0
61.9
7.9
74.2
13.9
79.0
0.7
90.3
4.0
Carbon Monoxide
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
10.7
100.0
17.0
100.0
0.8
100.0
3.3
1985
71.7
100.0
67.5
10.2
71.6
16.9
70.6
0.8
74.1
3.4
2000
56.4
100.0
45.7
8.7
55.0
16.5
57.1
0.8
49.6
2.9
       aThe base is the quantity emitted in 1975.
            total is the quantity for the nation.
        Source:
               Based on data provided in Environmental  Outlook 1980 High Growth Scenario  runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment  System (SEAS)
               produced for the U.S. Environmental protection Agency (1980).

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                                  TABLE 4

       MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS  AFFECTING PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE LEVELS
              AND DISTRIBUTION OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
     Major Assumptions
                  Description
 Substitution of coal for
  oil and gas
Rate at which existing
  electric utilities  are
  phased out and replaced
  by new facilities
Effect of economic  growth
  or transportation
  activity
Energy development  and
  population and  industrial
  shifts
Emissions from fuel combustion (essentially
  coal burning) are a significant portion of
  particulate, sulfur oxides and nitrogen
  oxides emissions from human activities.
  Thus, increased use of coal as a utility and
  boiler fuel will tend to offset environmen-
  tal improvements from implementation of
  environmental controls.

Under current State Implementation Plan
  requirements, older electric utilities
  (existing before 1976) are generally
  permitted much higher pollutant releases per
  unit of electricity generated than new
  facilities.  To simulate the effect of
  slower economic growth on the availability
  of investment capital for plant expansion,
  the rate at which older facilities are
  replaced is lower in the Low Growth Scenario
  than in the High.

Low economic growth, high oil prices and
  shifts among transportation modes tend to
  reduce transportation activity and the emis-
                                 sions from vehicular travel (e.g., NO.
                                 hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide).
                                       x>
Energy development in the West and South-
  west,  along with a gradual shift in popu-
  lation and industrial activity to the Sun-
  belt,  will affect regional distribution of
  emissions over time.
Source:   Adapted  from  U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency 1980.
                                     56

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Particulate emissions are expected to climb from roughly 60 percent

of 1975 levels in 1985 to 85 percent of 1975 levels by 2000.*

     These general national projections are reflected in the three

selected Federal regions as well.  Projected trends for Federal

Region IV (Southeast) closely approximate those for the nation,

although emissions of particulates are expected to rise in the region

to very near their 1975 levels by 2000 after declining to about 60

percent of the 1975 levels in 1985.  The Middle Atlantic and Mountain

Federal regions afford a study in contrasts.  For instance, while the

Middle Atlantic Federal Region is projected to show more improvement

than the nation as a whole, relative change in the Mountain Federal

Region reflects projected worsening conditions.  After an initial

drop, particulate emissions in the Mountain Federal Region are pro-

jected to rise to nearly 140 percent of 1975 levels by 2000; emission

levels of sulfur oxides are expected to show no intermediate improve-

ment, but to rise steadily to about 190 percent of 1975 levels by

2000; nitrogen oxides emission levels are projected to nearly triple

by 2000; and emissions of hydrocarbons, although indicating improve-

ment, are projected to return to 90 percent of 1975 levels by

2000.   Although the main emphasis of this study, and hence the

foregoing analysis, involves trends, or changes in emissions through

the year 2000, the relative magnitude of the emissions in these two
*Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980, High Growth
 Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
 (SEAS) produced for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
 (1980).                          57

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regions should be pointed out.  Even after improvements in the Middle




Atlantic Federal Region and a decline in conditions in the Mountain




Federal Region, overall amounts of net emissions in the Middle




Atlantic Federal Region will still be greater than in the Mountain




Federal Region.




     The contrasting regional trends reflect demographic and economic




growth patterns expected in the Middle Atlantic and Mountain regions




in the next two decades.  State Implementation Plans (SIPs) are cur-




rently in force in some Middle Atlantic states, while the western




states (including those in the Mountain Federal Region) are mostly




regulated by generally more stringent New Source Performance Stan-




dards (NSPS).  If it were not for this difference, projected air




pollutant emissions trends for the Mountain Federal Region would be




higher than they are.




     The foregoing discussion emphasizes the disparity between




regional trends in air emissions, indicating a need to study rela-




tively small geographic areas to ascertain potential effects on a




population.  Moreover, demographic heterogeneity, discussed earlier,




justifies studying even smaller areas to gain as homogeneous a sample




as possible when determining the probability of harm from air emis-




sion hazards for the population.  Specific examples of analyses of




the interaction of air emission projections and demographic factors




follow,  one at the Air Quality Control Region (AQCR) level (West Cen-




tral Florida) and one at the county level (Salt Lake County, Utah).
                                  58

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4.2  Probability of Harm From Air Pollutant Hazards

     4.2.1  Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida, Area

     The basic assumptions in the methodology demonstrated in this

section are that:

     o  One can examine changes in jeopardy in a probabilistic manner
        in which increased population and increased air emissions
        both result in an increased probability of harm; and

     o  An increase in the number of vulnerable individuals or in
        individual vulnerability will also result in an increased
        probability of harm for the population as a whole.

To estimate a change in the probability of harm for a population, one

can obtain the product of the ratios of predicted values to baseline

values for hazard, the absolute or proportional population at risk

and, if available, some measure of vulnerability.

     Table 5 presents projected proportional changes in net emissions

over 1975 levels for 1985 and 2000 for the five major pollutants in

the West Central Florida AQCR.  Projected emissions for this AQCR

were presented in Table 3.  Table 5 presents projected proportional

changes in the total population for the AQCR for these two years com-

pared to 1975, and statewide projections for changes in subpopula-

tions under age 5 and age 65 and over (for lack of regional data).

In considering the year 2000, emissions of particulates, sulfur

oxides and nitrogen oxides are projected to increase over 1975 lev-

els; emissions of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide are expected to

decrease compared to 1975 levels; and the total population of the

AQCR is expected to increase, with the state's age 65 and over sub-

population doubling in 2000 compared to 1975.  The ratios for the

                                 59

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                                 TABLE 5

              TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTION AND POPULATION IN THE
             WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AIR QUALITY CONTROL REGION
                                        Proportion of 1975 Value ina

                                       1985b                    2000b
Net Air Emissions0
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Population Variables'^
All Persons
Under 5 years6
65 Years and Over6

1.1
1.3
1.4
0.7
0.7

1.3
1.3
1.5

1.4
1.4
1.7
0.8
0.6

1.7
1.4
2.1
aThe 1975 value = 1.0.
^Proportions based on projected value for 1985 or 2000 divided by value
 in 1975.
CSEAS data (see Table 3).
dU.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b.
eState level data.
                                  60

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year 2000 are used to calculate the Indices presented in Table 6.




These indices are simply the compound product of changes in projected




emissions for each of the five major pollutants and projected changes




in total population and subpopulations (under age 5 and age 65 and




over) from 1975 through 2000.  These indices account only for pro-




jected changes in pollutant inhalation at the population and subpopu-




lation level during this time period.  Since a single individual




represents unity, the change in inhalation at the individual level is




represented by the projected change in emissions for any given pollu-




tant.  In order to more accurately determine the actual probability




of harm at the population or individual level, one would have to con-




sider vulnerability to account for differing probabilities of either




morbidity or mortality (or both) for each population or subgroup




(e.g., total population, elderly, children, smokers, alcohol drink-




ers) for each pollutant.




     The determination of vulnerability is an important issue and a




complex task—important because it is a key factor and complex




because, for any given population group and pollutant, the relation-




ship between vulnerability and contact with a pollutant may be non-




linear.  Atkins et al. (1980) wrote that there could be two kinds of




non-linearity.  Obviously, increased pollution levels may cause




increasing damage, as expressed in the formula, D = F (P^, SE),




where D is a measure of mortality, P is a vector of pollution param-




eters and SE is a vector of various socio-economic parameters that






                                  61

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                                            TABLE 6

                     INDICES OF AIR POLLUTION INHALATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL
                                FLORIDA AQCR FOR THE YEAR 2000
                                           Air Pollutant (1975 = 1.0*)
Population
at Risk
Particulates
Sulfur
Oxides
Nitrogen
Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon
Monoxide
All Persons              2.4
  Under 5 Years          2.0
  65 Years and Over      2.9
2.4
2.0
2.9
2.9
2.4
3.6
1.4
1.1
1.7
1.0
0.8
1.3
alnhalation indices were calculated as a product of population or subpopulation and net air
 emissions for the (year 2000):(year 1975) ratios from Table 5.  These indices take into
 account only changes in population or subpopulation size and changes in air pollutant  emis-
 sions and are thus comparative measures only.

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would relate to vulnerability.  Moreover, they wrote that the effects




of one pollutant may be exacerbated or attenuated by the presence of




another.  In addition, there may be thresholds, above or below which




vulnerability is not affected by changes in the quantity of pollu-




tants inhaled.  The indices in Table 6 should be interpreted with




these caveats in mind.




     The data reported in Table 5 suggest dramatic population changes




in the West Central Florida AQCR during the remainder of this centu-




ry.  The subpopulation of persons age 65 and over is likely to double




by the year 2000, while total population is expected to increase by a




factor of 1.7-  Due to projected increases in particulates and in




oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, all groups examined will be subject to




higher levels of these pollutants in 2000 compared to 1975.  In addi-




tion, population growth will increase the number of persons inhaling




the substances.  With the high influx of older migrants to Florida




and with the increasing age of the population as a whole, inhalation




of these pollutants will increase more for the elderly than for other




portions of the population examined.  Little change is expected




through 2000 in the quantity of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide




inhaled by the overall population and the under age 5 subpopulation.




The elderly population is expected to experience relatively little




change in exposure to carbon monoxide, but an increased exposure to




hydrocarbons in 2000 compared to 1975.
                                  63

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     The compounded probability of harm associated with population




growth is an important societal trend, whether for a subpopulation or




a total regional population.  As the number of persons who inhale and




are vulnerable to a pollutant increases, even where the pollution




level does not, there should be greater impetus for environmental




protection.  Society and its affected members bear the costs of ill




health.  In situations where larger numbers of elderly persons are




subjected to larger amounts of air pollution, as is the projected




trend in this AQCR, the costs to society and to these older victims




will be especially great due to their sensitivity to the harm and




public responsibility for their care.  In cases such as these, it may




be particularly beneficial to apply tighter controls to major sources




of hazardous pollutants.




     4.2.2  Salt Lake County, Utah




     The previous subsection illustrated a way to estimate changes in




quantities of pollutants inhaled by populations and subpopulations in




the Tampa-St. Petersburg area.  Given indices of subpopulation vul-




nerabilities to pollution-caused harm, the methodology could be




extended to estimate potential changes in probability of harm for




these subpopulations.  A simplistic methodology to predict potential




mortality or morbidity would require empirical data on mortality or




morbidity rates, some measure of pollution and socioeconomic varia-




bles.  These factors would be regressed on each other to obtain




elasticity measures by which one can correlate amounts of change in
                                 64

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mortality or morbidity with specific amounts of change in a given




pollution variable.  Freeman (1979) reviewed the current literature




on the correlations between air pollution and both mortality and




morbidity, presenting a detailed evaluation of attempts to derive




elasticity measures to relate these factors.




     This subsection demonstrates the applicability of empirically




derived elasticity measures relating mortality to projected air pol-




lution trends in a specific geographic area.  Salt Lake County, Utah,




was chosen for this example as a representative urban county in the




Mountain Federal Region and Census Division.  The county population




is expected to increase by 52 percent over 1975 levels by 1995 (Salt




Lake County Council of Governments 1977).  Significant growth in




industry, commerce and agriculture is expected, along with resultant




increases in major air pollutants (Table 7).




     Lave and Seskin (1970) reported an elasticity of 0.09 for total




death rates as a function of changes in particulates (suspended par-




ticulates and sulfate particles).  This elasticity means that for a 1




percent increase in particulates, one can predict a 0.09 percent




increase in total mortality.  The merits and problems of this partic-




ular elasticity estimate, along with others for subpopulations




(infant death rate, neonatal death rate, fetal death rate), are pre-




sented by Freeman (1979) and are not at issue here since this sub-




section serves only to illustrate a potential method of analysis.




Estimates of statewide death rates for Utah, derived for 1975 from
                                  65

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                                       TABLE 7

                              AIR POLLUTION PROJECTIONS
                               SALT LAKE  COUNTY, UTAH
                         Projected Emissions
                         (Thousands of Tons)
Pollutant
Sulfur Oxides
Carbon Monoxide
Nitrogen Oxides
Particulates
Hydrocarbons
1975
363
283
48
201
37
1995
467
416
73
294
59
Percent
Increase
29
47
52
46
59
Source:  Adapted from Salt Lake County Council of  Governments  1977.

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Bureau of the Census data (U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b)

are used as a surrogate for that year's Salt Lake County death

rate.   As indicated in Table 8, mortality for the total population

of Salt Lake County due to particulates in 1995 would be predicted to

increase by 4.17 percent over 1975 levels, representing approximately

200 deaths.

     The above analysis offers a crude estimate to demonstrate a

methodology and to indicate areas where more detailed information is

needed.  For instance, regional and subregional pollutant emission

projections and population projections for subgroups that may be

particularly vulnerable to pollution (e.g., very young, very old,

smokers) are needed in more disaggregated form than is generally

available.  The elasticities as reviewed by Freeman (1979) represent

only the beginning of understanding the relationships between air

pollution and both mortality and morbidity.  Elasticities expressing

these relationships for specific sensitive groups and expressing the

potentially synergistic relationships between two or more pol-

lutants need to be further understood and refined.  Detailed data on

population trends, disaggregated to county, AQCR and subpopulation

levels, as well as similarly disaggregated emission projections and
*April 1970 to July 1980:  78,000 deaths projected for Utah.
 Assuming a constant number of annual deaths, there would have been
 7,800 deaths in 1975.  Utah population is expected to grow from
 1.059 million in 1970 to 1.321 million in 1980.  Assuming a linear
 growth rate during this period, the 1975 population would have been
 1.190 million.  The estimated 1975 death rate would then be 6.55 per
 1,000 population.

                                  67

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                                                TABLE  8

                          ESTIMATES  OF MORTALITY DUE TO  PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
                                        SALT  LAKE COUNTY,  UTAH
Parameters
Population (Thousands)3
Particulates (Thousands of Tons)3
Total Death Rate (per Thousand)15
1975
522.0
201.0
6.55
1995
791.0
294.0
6.82°
Percent
Change
+ 51.5
+ 46.3
+ 4.17C
00       Death Rate Attributed  to  Increase
          in particulate Emissions:   1975
          to 1995 (per  1,000)                   0.0           0.27
        Deaths attributable to increased particulate  emissions  (compared  to
          1975) in 1995 = 0.27 deaths per  1,000 population x  791,000
          population = 214 deaths
        aFrom Salt Lake County Council of  Governments  1977.
        ^Calculated from Bureau of the Census  Data  (U.S.  Department  of  Commerce  1979a,
         1979b).
        cAssumes 1 percent increase in particulate  emissions results in 0.09  percent
         increase in total mortality  (Lave and Seskin  1970).

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elasticities, would permit more precise models of the pollution




impact on various segments of the population for consideration in




fine-tuning future regulations.




4.3  Conclusion




     Section 4.2 presented two somewhat related methodologies to




quantitatively predict the potential for harm from pollution hazards




in the environment.  While the methodologies may lack absolute pre-




cision, they can be used in a comparative manner to show relative




differences in the probability of harm resulting from different




hazards or pollution levels, or to demonstrate differences in the




probability of harm from the same hazards or pollution levels,




encountered by different population subgroups.  With further devel-




opment, the methodologies could contribute to major policy delibera-




tions.  This process can be valuable to the regulatory arena because




it can indicate where the greatest benefits, in terms of protecting




human health and welfare, can be achieved with minimal regulatory




constraints.  In addition, it can give some indication of where the




greatest potential for detriments to health will be in the future.
                                 69

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                              APPENDIX
                     DATA ON POPULATION TRENDS
     Two sets of data are presented in this Appendix to support the

foregoing analyses.  The first part of the Appendix contains national

level data on population size, spatial distribution, age distribution

and employment.  These data are presented to provide a national pro-

file of population patterns and trends with environmental risk impli-

cations.  The second part of the Appendix consists of similar data

for the three census divisions examined in the paper (South Atlantic,

Middle Atlantic and Mountain divisions) disaggregated to the state

level.  Each set of data in the following sections is preceded by

significant highlights of population patterns and trends.

A.1  National Patterns and Trends

     A.1.1  Population Gro-frth (Tables A-l and A-2)

     o  One of the most significant population trends in the United
        States since the middle of the 1960s has been the slowing
        growth rate.  This has been attributed primarily to a decline
        in the birth rate rather than to any major change in the
        death rate or immigration.

     o  Total population is projected to reach approximately 263 mil-
        lion by the turn of the century and to continue rising to
        about 312 million by 2040, assuming a fertility rate of
        2.1.*
*Census Bureau projections are based on fertility rates ranging
 from 1.7 to 2.7-  Projections based on a 2.1 rate were selected for
 use here, based on personal communication with a Bureau staff member
 who said actual population growth has most closely tracked this set
 of projections in recent years.  Future change in population growth
 would justify using a different set of the Bureau's frequently
 updated projections.
                                 71

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                    TABLE A-l

           U.S. POPULATION GROWTH RATE
Year
1790
1840
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Population
(Millions)
3.9
17.1
63.1
76.1
92.4
106.5
123.1
132.6
152.3
180.7
204.9
222.8
245.1
262.5
278.8
294.0
304.3
312.0
Average Annual Rate
of Change
(Percent)

3.0
2.65
1.88
1.94
1.42
1.46
0.74
1.38
1.71
1.26
0.84
0.95
0.69
0.60
0.53
0.34
0.25
Note:  Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility
       rate.

Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce
         1977.
                        72

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                      TABLE A-2

         COMPONENTS OF U.S. POPULATION GROWTH
                     (Thousands)
Year
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Net
Changea
1,128
853
1,221
1,462
2,486
2,925
2,901
2,315
2,227
1,582
2,155
2,284
2,068
1,706
1,550
Birthsb
2,618
2,377
2,570
2,873
3,645
4,128
4,307
3,801
3,739
3,232
3,926
4,172
4,072
3,832
3,792
Deaths0
1,419
1,421
1,432
1,549
1,468
1,537
1,708
1,830
1,927
2,050
2,171
2,288
2,404
2,526
2,642
Net Civilian
Immigration
113
-2
77
162
299
337
327
373
438
400
400
400
400
400
400
Note:  Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility
       rate.

alncludes estimates of overseas admissions into and
 discharges from the armed forces and the error of
 closure between censuses.
^Adjusted for underregistration through March 1970.
cDeaths occurring in the United States plus esti-
 mated deaths occurring in the armed forces abroad
 except for 1930 through 1939 when the estimates are
 for the resident population of the conterminous United
 States only.  Infant deaths adjusted for underregis-
 tration through March 1960.

Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce
         1977.
                          73

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A. 1.2  Age Structure (Table A-3)

o  Projections indicate an aging trend for the national popula-
   tion.  While the percent of population under age 5 is
   expected to remain about the same, the percent 65 and over
   will increase significantly until it levels off at approxi-
   mately 18 percent in 2030.  This compares to the 1970 level
   of about 9.8 percent.

A. 1.3  Labor Force (Tables A-4 and A-5)

o  Female participation in the labor force has been increasing
   significantly in all age categories.  This is in contrast to
   male participation which has declined for those age 45 and
   over.  The influx of women into the work force began with
   those beyond childbearing age, followed by younger married
   women without children.  More recently, many women with
   school-age children have entered the labor market.

o  There has been a general shift away from farm related employ-
   ment toward professional and administrative jobs.  Females
   are capturing a larger share of these professional positions
   than in the past and they are entering the traditionally male
   dominated industries of mining, construction and manufac-
   turing .

A.1.4  Regional Growth and Migration (Tables A-6 and A-7)

o  Although population growth in the nation is expected to
   remain low for some time, there will be significant regional
   variations in growth, with some census regions growing more
   rapidly than others.  Specifically, the South and West are
   expected to grow more rapidly than the Northeast and North
   Central census regions.  (The census regions, as distinct
   from census divisions discussed in Section 3, are pictured in
   Figure A-l).

o  The average annual rate of growth between 1975 and 2000 is
   projected to be highest in the South Census Region, followed
   by the West.  The lowest growth rate is expected in the
   Northeast Census Region.

o  Growth in the South and West is attributed mainly to the Sun-
   belt phenomenon.  In addition, the West will experience
   growth related to energy resource development.

o  Net migration is a key factor in the variation of regional
   growth patterns.  Between 1970 and 1975, the South and West
                            74

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                           TABLE A-3

             AGE COMPOSITION OF THE U.S. POPULATION
Year
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Median Age
22.9
24.1
25.3
26.5
29.0
30.2
29.5
28.1
30.2
32.8
35.5
36.6
37.0
38.0
37.8
37.8

0-17
40.3
38.0
37.3
34.9
30.5
31.1
35.8
34.0
27.9
26.6
26.5
24.6
24.6
24.1
24.0
24.3
Percent of Population
18-64 65
55.6
57.7
58.1
59.7
62.7
60.8
55.0
56.2
60.9
61.1
61.3
62.8
59.8
57.5
58.2
58.2

and Over
4.1
4.3
4.6
5.4
6.8
8.2
9.2
9.8
11.2
12.3
12.2
12.7
15.6
18.3
17.8
17.6
Note:  Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate.
       Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

Source:  Adapted from U.S. House of Representatives  1978.
                                75

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                       TABLE A-4

          U.S. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES
                            Female Participation Rate
                        	(Percent)	

   Age Group               1947                 1977
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and over
44.9
32.0
36.3
32.7
24.3
8.1
65.0
49.0
59.2
55.4
41.3
8.3
                             Male Participation Rate
                                    (Percent)

   Age Group               1947                1977
   45-54                   95.5                91.1
   55-64                   89.6                74.0
   65 and over             47.8                19.7
Note:  Based on total labor force.

Source:  Adapted from Sternlieb 1978.
                           76

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                                   TABLE A-5

                   U.S.  EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION AND  SEX
Employment
(Millions)
1972
Occupation
White-Collar Workers
Professional, Technical and
Kindred
Managers and Administrators,
Except Farm
Sales Workers
Clerical and Kindred Workers
Blue-Collar Workers
Craft and Kindred Workers
Operatives, Except Transport
Transport Equipment Operatives
Laborers, Except Farm
Farm Workers
Farmers and Farm Managers
Farm Laborers and Supervisors
Service Workers
Service Workers, Except
Private Household
Private Household Workers
All Occupations
Male
20.18
6.96
6.62
3.13
3.47
23.80
10.42
6.35
3.08
3.95
2.53
1.59
0.94
4.13
4.09
0.03
50.63
Female
18.92
4.50
1.41
2.23
10.78
4.78
0.38
3.99
0.13
0.27
0.54
0.10
0.44
6.84
5.43
1.40
31.07
1978
Male
22.63
8.16
7.74
3.29
3.44
25.77
11.69
6.55
3.28
4.24
2.29
1.35
0.94
4.80
4.78
0.03
55.49
Female
24.57
6.08
2.36
2.66
13.46
5.77
0.70
4.32
0.26
0.49
0.51
0.13
0.38
8.04
6.90
1.14
38.88
Note:   Civilian noninstitutional population.  Apparent data discrepancies  due to
       rounding.

Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of  Commerce 1978.
                                       77

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00
      Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1972.
                                                 FIGURE A-1
                                  CENSUS REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES

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                                                TABLE  A-6

                            REGIONAL MIGRATION FOR  THE U.S. POPULATION
Percent of Those Who Moved Between Regions
by Region of Destination, 1975-1978


Region of Origin
U.S. Migrants
Northeast
North Central
South
West
Total
Elderly U.S. Migrantsb
Northeast
North Central
South
West
Total
Total Number
of Migrants3
1975-1978
(Thousands)

5,134
7,593
9,282
6,125
28,134

295
309
317
255
1,176
Approximate Number
Who Moved Between
Regions
1975-1978

1,576.14
2,171.6
1,865.68
1,525.13
7,146.04

112.99
88.07
52.94
47.94
302.23


Northeast

—
11.4
23.8
12.0
12.3

—
6.8
32.1
12.5
9.6


North Central

17.7
—
37.8
32.7
20.8

7.1
—
43.4
35.4
15.9


South

57.3
52.6
—
55.3
40.3

77.0
46.6
—
52.1
50.7


West

25.0
36.3
38.4
—
26.6

15.9
46.6
24.5
—
23.7
— Represents zero or rounds to zero
aAll persons age 3 or over who moved across at  least a county  line.
^Migrants age 65 or over.

Source:  Adapted from Biggar 1979.

-------
                                    TABLE  A-7

                   REGIONAL POPULATION  AND  RATE OF GROWTH
Population
(Millions)
Region
Northeast
New England
Middle Atlantic
North Central
East North Central
West North Central
South
South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central
West
Mountain
Pacific
U.S. Total
1975
49.5
12.2
37.3
57.6
40.9
16.7
68.0
33.7
13.5
20.9
37.9
9.6
28.3
213.0
2000
53.2
14.4
38.7
63.3
44.4
18.9
92.4
47.9
16.7
27.8
51.0
14.7
36.3
259.9
Percent of
1975
23.3
5.7
17.5
27.1
19.2
7.8
31.9
15.8
6.3
9.8
17.8
4.5
13.3
100.0
Population
2000
20.5
5.6
14.9
24.4
17.1
7.3
35.6
18.5
6.4
10.7
19.6
5.7
14.0
100.0
Average Annual
Rate of Change
(Percent)
1975 to 2000
0.3
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.5
1.2
1.4
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.7
0.9
0.8
Note:  Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate.  Discrepancies between  this table
      and Table A-l due to data  differences in  the source.

Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b.
                                        80

-------
        gained population at the expense of the Northeast and North
        Central census regions.

     A.1.5  Local Migration (Table A-8)

     o  In addition to these general regional variations, there have
        been significant changes in urban/rural population shifts.
        The movement from rural to metropolitan areas that predomin-
        ated during the 1960s has undergone a noticeable reversal
        resulting in what has generally been referred to as the
        "rural renaissance."

     o  The average annual rate of change between 1970 and 1978 was
        higher for nonmetropolitan areas (1.4 percent) than metro-
        politan areas (0.5 percent).  The number of persons living
        in central cities actually declined during that time period.

A. 2  Division Profiles

     Population profiles are presented in this Appendix for the South

Atlantic,  Middle Atlantic and Mountain divisions to provide back-

ground for the comparative discussion that was presented in Section

3.  Brief  highlights of the data are followed by detailed tabulations

for each region.

     A.2.1  South Atlantic Census Division

     A.2.1.1  Population Growth (Table A-9)

     o  Population is expected to more than double in the South
        Atlantic Census Division during the last half of this
        century, rising from approximately 21 million in 1950 to
        almost 50 million by the year 2000.

     o  The division's rate of growth will slow slightly from
        19.1 percent during the 1970s to 16.9 and 12.2 percent for
        the 1980s and 1990s, respectively.

     o  Florida is expected to experience the largest increase in
        population, reaching over 14 million by the end of the cen-
        tury.  This compares to about 2.8 million in 1950 and
        approximately 4.6 million today.  The annual rate of growth
        will decline from the current decade's 27.1 percent to 17.9
        percent between 1990 and the year 2000.

                                  81

-------
                                                 TABLE  A-8

                                     U.S. POPULATION BY  METROPOLITAN
                                        AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS
Population
(Millions)
Area
Metropolitan Areas
In Central Cities
Outside Central Cities
Nonmetropolitan Areas
Total
1970
137.1
62.9
74.2
62.8
199.8
1978
143.0
59.7
83.3
70.4
213.5
Population
Change
(Millions)
1970-1978
6.0
-3.2
9.1
7.7
13.6
Percent
Change
1960-1970
16.6
6.5
26.7
6.8
13.3
1970-1978
4.4
-5.0
12.3
12.2
6.8
Average
Percent
1960-1970
1.5
0.6
2.4
0.7
1.3
Annual
Change
1970-1978
0.5
-0.6
1.5
1.4
0.8
Note:  Figures  may not add to totals due to rounding.
Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1978.

-------
                                                       TABLE A-9


                                          POPULATION AND  GROWTH BY DECADE:
                                               SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION
CO
u>
South Atlantic Population
Division 1950
Delaware
Maryland
District of
Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
Note: Population
^Figures for 1980
the United States
318
2,343
802
3,319
2,006
4,062
2,117
3,445
2,771
21,182
Percent Percent
Change Population Change Population
1950-60 1960 1960-70 1970
40.5
32.3
-4.8
19.5
-7.2
12.2
12.5
14.5
78.7
22.6
forecast assumes z 2.
were taken
, 1979.
from Table
446 22.8
3,101 26.5 3
764 -1.0
3,967 17.2 4
1,860 -6.2 1
4,556 11.5 5
2,383 8.7 2
3,943 16.4 4
"4,952 37.1 6
25,972 18.1 30
1 fertility rate and 1970
1 in Current Population

bFigures were taken from Table 3 in Current Population Reports,
548
,922
757
,648
,744
,082
,591
,590
,789
,671
to 1975
Reports ,
No. 796.
Percent Percent
Change Population Change
1970-80 1980a 1980-90
9.5
11.0
-9.5
14.8
5.7
13.9
16.7
15.5
41.5
19.1
migration
No. 796;
600
4,353
685
5,334
1,844
5,790
3,025
5,302
9,607
36,540
trends.
1950 to
8.5
13.2
-5.0
14.7
7.0
13.5
15.5
15.7
27.1
16.9
Average Annual
Percent Rate of Change
Population Change Population 1975-2000°
1990 1990-2000 2000 (Percent)
651
4,928
651
6,117
1,973
6,573
3,494
6,133
12,207
42,727
5.8
10.3
-3.7
10.6
5.2
9.9
11.4
11.5
17.9
12.2
Apparent data discrepancies due
1970 are from
Tables 10 and
13 in
689
5,436
627
6,768
2,076
7,226
3,893
6,840
14,394
47,949
to rounding.
Statistical

6.9
11.0
-5.2
12.1
5.7
11.2
12.8
12.9
21.1

Abstract of

      Source:  U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a,  1979b.

-------
o  Maryland and Delaware ranked second and third, respectively,
   in rate of growth until 1970.  Growth is expected to slow in
   these two states for the remainder of the century, however,
   and all of the southern states of the division will overtake
   those two in growth rate between now and the year 2000.

o  District of Columbia statistics reflect a decline in popula-
   tion in every decade with the largest decrease of 9.5 percent
   occurring between 1970 and 1980.  The only other jurisdiction
   that lost population was West Virginia in the 1950s and
   1960s.

o  Average annual rates of change between 1975 and 2000 range
   from minus 5.2 percent in the District of Columbia to plus
   21.1 percent in Florida.

A.2.1.2  Components of Growth (Table A-10)

o  Population growth in the division was primarily a result of
   natural increase (births minus deaths) during the 1960s.
   Since that time, however, growth attributed to positive net
   migration has exceeded natural increase.

o  Net migration will continue to be the predominant growth com-
   ponent throughout the century even though the positive rate
   is projected to decrease slightly.

o  The number of deaths is projected to increase in each decade
   between 1960 and the year 2000, and to range from about 1.3
   million in the 1960s to a high of approximately 4.7 million
   between 1990 and 2000.

o  Population growth in Florida can be attributed primarily to
   positive net migration in every decade that far exceeds the
   rate in any other state.

o  Deaths are expected to slightly exceed births in Florida dur-
   ing the 1990s.  Total population will continue to increase,
   however, since positive net migration will amount to approx-
   imately 2.2 million people.

o  A declining population is expected in every decade in the Dis-
   trict of Columbia between 1960 and the year 2000 since nega-
   tive net migration exceeds natural increase.

o  Net migration in West Virginia, North Carolina and South
   Carolina will be positive throughout the remainder of the
   century after a negative rate during the 1960s.

                            84

-------
00
                                                                      TABLE  A-10

                                               COMPONENTS  OF POPULATION  CHANGE  BY  DECADE:
                                                            SOUTH  ATLANTIC  DIVISION

South Atlantic
Division
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
April 1,
Births

109
740
182
909
339
1,032
573
975
1,107
5,965
1960-April 1, 1970a
Deaths

45
303
89
369
190
412
216
379
596
2,598
Net Mig.c

38
385
-100
141
-265
-94
-149
51
1,326
1,332
April 1
Births

92.6
612.3
114.8
793.6
289.6
906.8
511.7
900.4
1,192.8
5,414.6
., 1970- July 1, 1980b
Deaths

50.8
343.7
81.5
420.1
202.7
481.3
247.2
440.8
904.3
3,172.4
Net Mig.

9.7
160.1
-105.2
309.0
13.0
280.5
169.3
254.2
2,527.3
3,617.9
July 1
Births

108.4
764.9
106.5
969.5
303.8
1,019.0
576.5
1,041.5
1,590.6
6,480.7
[, 1980- July 1, 1990
Deaths

56.5
393.2
71.5
488.8
210.3
559.3
288.1
497.3
1,279.4
3,840.4
Net Mig.

-0.5
203.5
-68.8
302.2
34.9
323.1
181.1
287.4
2,284.5
3,547.4
July
Births

101.9
764.2
97.2
969.1
280.4
997.5
560.6
1,036.3
1,686.4
6,489.6
1, 1990- July 1, 2000
Deaths

64.5
459.9
69.6
584.4
228.6
665.8
346.3
578.9
1,712.0
4,706.0
Net Mig.

0.8
204.5
-55.4
270.8
51.4
321.6
184.7
249.0
2,212.5
3,439.9
           Note:   Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.


           aData  from Table  12 in Statistical Abstract of the United  States,  1979.
           ^Data  computed from Table 4 in Current Population Repojrts^ No. 796.  Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and  1970 to  1975 migration trends.
           cComprises both net immigration from abroad and net interdivlsional or interstate migration according to the area shown.   Includes movements of persons
            in the armed forces.

           Source:  Adapted  from U.S. Department of Commerce I979b,  1979c.

-------
A.2.1.3  Age Composition (Table A-ll)

o  Division statistics generally reflect an aging population
   with the percentage of total population under age 5 declining
   slightly from a high of 8.4 percent in 1970 to 6.5 percent in
   the year 2000.

o  Elderly persons will comprise an increasing proportion of the
   division's population, reaching a high of 13.5 percent in
   2000.  This compares to a low of 9.4 percent in 1970.

o  Florida has the highest proportion of elderly of any state in
   the division.  The percentage of total population age 65 and
   over increases every decade and ranges from 14.5 percent in
   1970 to 19.3 percent in the year 2000.

o  In absolute numbers, the elderly population in Florida
   reaches approximately 2.8 million in the year 2000.  This
   compares with 1 million elderly in the state in 1970.

o  The proportion of total population age 65 and over in
   Maryland and the District of Columbia remains relatively
   constant over time.

o  Statistics for all other states reflect percentage increases
   in elderly population in every decade between 1970 and 2000,
   but increases are considerably less than in Florida.

A. 2.1.4  Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Population (Table A-12)

o  Population increased in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan
   areas of the division between 1960 and 1977.

o  Metropolitan areas experienced more rapid growth during the
   1960s than they did between 1970 and 1977.

o  Conversely, nonmetropolitan areas grew faster between 1970
   and 1977 than they did during the previous decade.

o  Florida recorded the highest gain in both metropolitan and
   nonmetropolitan areas with increases of 3.1 million and
   500,000, respectively, between 1960 and 1977.

o  West Virginia's population declined in metropolitan and non-
   metropolitan areas in the 1960s, but increased slightly in
   both kinds of areas between 1970 and 1977.
                            86

-------
                                                TABLE A-ll

                               PROJECTIONS OF AGE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION
                                   BY DECADE:  SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION
00
South Atlantic
Division
1970
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
1980
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
Under
Number

48.5
344.6
59.8
391.7
138.3
437.5
235.8
421.9
501.6
2,579.7

44.1
298.0
45.5
377.0
131.2
422.3
238.8
420.5
607.3
2,584.7
5 Years
Percent of
Total

8.8
8.8
7.9
8.4
7.9
8.6
9.1
9.2
7.4
8.4

7.3
6.9
6.6
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.9
7.9
6.3
7.1
5-14
Number

117.0
298.0
128.8
930.4
335.7
1,016.7
552.3
952.0
1,250.1
5,581.0

91.9
644.1
95.6
801.4
282.5
907.5
501.9
886.0
1,297.0
5,507.9
Years
Percent of
Total

21.3
7.6
17.0
20.0
19.2
20.0
21.3
20.8
18.4
18.2

15.3
14.8
14.0
15.0
15.3
15.7
16.6
16.7
13.5
15.1
15-64
Number

339.0
2,896.1
497.8
2,962.2
1,076.5
3,218.2
1,612.8
2,848.6
4,054.2
19,505.4

406.6
3,020.3
470.9
3,655.5
1,198.9
3,878.2
2,009.0
3,500.8
6,036.4
24,177.4
Years
Percent of
Total

61.8
73.8
65.8
63.7
61.7
63.3
62.3
62.1
59.7
63.6

67.8
69.4
68.3
68.5
65.0
67.0
66.4
66.0
62.8
66.2
65 Years
Number

43.6
385.2
70.3
367.1
193.7
412.0
189.9
365.4
985.5
3,012.7

57.0
390.2
72.8
500.0
231.5
582.3
275.0
494.5
1,666.5
4,269.8
and Over
Percent of
Total

7.9.
9.8
9.2
7.9
11.1
8.1
7.3
8.0
14.5
9.4

9.5
9.0
10.6
9.4
12.6
10.1
9.1
9.3
17.3
11.7
Total

548.1
3,923.9
756.7
4,651.4
1,744.2
5,084.4
2,590.8
4,587.9
6,791.4
30,678.1

599.6
4,352.6
684.8
5,333.9
1,844.1
5,790.3
3,024.7
5,301.8
9,607.2
36,539.8

-------
                                                        TABLE A-ll  (Concluded)
00
00
South Atlantic
Division
1990
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
2000
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
Under
Number

53.7
385.2
46.8
476.9
147.0
504.2
283.6
513.7
814.8
3,225.9

48.6
366.0
42.3
452.7
132.9
478.1
267.8
493.0
815.3
3,096.7
5 Years
Percent of
Total

8.2
7.8
7.2
7.8
7.5
7.7
8.1
8.4
6.7
7.5

7.0
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.4
6.6
6.9
7.2
5.7
6.5
5-14
Number

96.9
710.2
83.5
871.2
286.2
953.1
538.3
958.7
1,547.5
6,045.6

105.7
812.3
81.1
981.6
299.8
1,042.4
585.0
1,064.6
1,818.6
6,791.1
Years
Percent of
Total

14.9
14.4
12.8
14.2
14.5
14.5
15.4
15.6
12.7
14.1

15.3
14.9
12.9
14.5
14.4
14.4
15.0
15.6
12.6
14.2
15-64
Number

427.4
3,329.5
449.0
4,106.6
1,269.1
4,361.3
2,305.1
4,049.2
7,505.8
27,803.0

454.4
3,703.4
437.5
4,583.0
1,360.2
4,846.1
2,615.5
4,590.8
8,984.4
31,575.3
Years
Percent of
Total

65.6
67.6
69.0
67.1
64.3
66.4
66.0
66.0
61.5
65.1

65.9
68.1
69.8
67.7
65.5
67.1
67.2
67.1
62.4
65.8
65 Years
Number

73.1
502.8
71.7
662.0
270.3
754.4
367.2
611.8
2,338.8
5,652.1

80.7
554.6
66.2
750.9
282.8
859.7
424.9
691.4
2,775.5
6,486.7
and Over
Percent of
Total

11.2
10.2
11.0
10.8
13.7
11.5
10.5
10.0
19.2
13.2

11.7
10.2
10.6
11.1
13.6
11.9
10.9
10.1
19.3
13.5
Total

651.1
4,927.7
651.0
6,116.7
1,972.6
6,573.0
3,494.2
6,133.4
12,206.9
42,726.6

689.4
5,436.3
627.1
6,768.2
2,075.7
7,226.3
3,893.2
6,839.8
14,393.8
47,949.8
        Note:  Population forecast assumes  a 2.1 fertility  rate and 1970 to  1975 migration trends.


        Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce  1979b.

-------
                                                     TABLE A-12

                                        SOUTH ATLANTIC  DIVISION POPULATION
                                   BY  METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS
00
Metropolitan
South Atlantic
Division
Delaware
Maryland
Percent
Change
a
1960 1960-70
0
2
.3
.6
District of Columbia 0.8
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
	 Represents zero
Note: Apparent data
a April
bJuly
2
0
1
1
2
4
15
or rounds
.4
.7
.9
.0
.0
.2
.9
to zero.
discrepancies due




25.5
29.9
-1.0
26.9
-2.6
22.2
18.4
26.6
39.1
26.9

to rounding.


a
1970
0.4
3.4
0.8
3.1
0.7
2.3
1.2
2.6
5.9
20.2




Percent
Change
1970-77
3.3
4.6
-9.5
8.9
0.9
9.1
13.6
10.4
23.6
11.9




b
1977
0.4
3.5
0.7
3.3
0.7
2.5
1.4
2.9
7.3
22.6




a
1960
0.1
0.5
0
1.5
1.2
2.7
1.3
1.9
0.7
10.0




Nonmetropolitan
Percent
Change
1960-70
16.
9.
—
3.
-8.
4.
1.
5.
25.
4.




9
6
-
0
4
2
3
2
8
4




a
1970
0.2
0.6
0
1.6
1.1
2.8
1.4
2.0
0.9
10.4




Percent
Change
1970-77
13.2
10.6
	
11.1
9.5
8.0
8.9
9.2
31.7
11.2




t
1977
0.2
0.6
0
1.7
1.2
3.0
1.5
2.2
1.2
11.6




         Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979c.

-------
A.2.1.5  Labor Force Participation (Table A-13)

o  The female labor force of the division increased by 3.3 mil-
   lion workers between 1960 and 1976 compared to a male labor
   force gain of 2.6 million over the same time period.

o  Female participation increased rapidly, with the rate rising
   from 35.8 percent in 1960 to over 50 percent in 1976.  Male
   participation increased more slowly, rising from 70.4 percent
   to 76.1 percent for those years.

o  West Virginia had the lowest labor force participation rates
   for both males and females throughout the time period.

o  The District of Columbia experienced significantly higher
   female participation rates than any of the states, exceeding
   the 50 percent level since 1960.

o  Florida's participation rates for both males and females were
   lower than those of the division in general throughout the
   time period.

o  This was also true for Virginia in 1960 and 1970,  but rates
   in that state exceeded regional levels in 1976.

o  With the exception of Florida, Virginia and West Virginia,
   all states recorded higher male and female participation
   rates than the division in general.

A.2.1.6  Employment by Occupation (Table A-14)

o  Gains in the percent of total employment by occupational
   categories between 1970 and 1976 were highest for  managers
   and administrators, followed by the professional and tech-
   nical category.

o  Percentage declines were recorded in the division for oper-
   ation, sales, craft and farm workers for those same years.

o  Managers and administrators gained in the percent  of total
   employment in all states except Delaware.

o  Conversely,  percentage declines were recorded in all states
   for sales workers, craft workers and operations between 1970
   and 1976.

o  The professional and technical category declined as a per-
   centage of the total only in Delaware and West Virginia.


                            90

-------
                                       TABLE  A-13

              POPULATION,  LABOR  FORCE  AND PARTICIPATION RATE
                      BY  SEX:   SOUTH  ATLANTIC  DIVISION
                             Population3
                                                  Labor Force"
                                         Participation Kate
                                              (Percent)
South Atlantic
Division
1960
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
Male

0.1
1.0
0.3
1.4
0.6
1.5
0.8
1.3
1.7
8.8
Female

0.2
1.1
0.3
1.4
0.7
1.6
0.8
1.4
1.8
9.2
Male

0.1
0.8
0.2
0.9
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.9
1.2
6.1
Female

0.1
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.6
3.3
Male

75.5
75.4
73.2
68.2
67.8
71.2
71.7
71.7
68.0
70.4
Female

36.1
36.0
51.8
33.8
24.2
37.4
38.2
37.5
34.7
35.8
  1970
  Delaware                  0.2       0.2
  Maryland                  1.3       1.4
  District of  Columbia       0.2       0.3
  Virginia                  1.6       1.6
  West Virginia              0.6       0.6
  North Carolina             1.7       1.8
  South Carolina             0.8       0.9
  Georgia                   1.5       1.6
  Florida                   2.3       2.6

    Division Total          10.2      11.1
                     0.4
                     1.0
                     0.2
                     1.1
                     0.4
                     1.2
                     0.6
                     1.1
                     7.1
                                                         0.1
                                                         0.6
                                                         0.2
                                                         0.7
                                                         0.2
                                                         0.8
                                                         0.4
                                                         0.7
                                                         1.0

                                                         4.7
                     76.8
                     75.7
                     70.9
                     67.9
                     66.7
                     71.3
                     69.6
                     72.6
                     65.2

                     69.8
                       43.1
                       44.2
                       55.9
                       42.1
                       29.4
                       46.4
                       45.2
                       44.6
                       39.0

                       42.6
1976
Delaware
Maryland
District of  Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida

  Division Total
0.2
1.4
0.2
1.6
0.6
1.8
0.9
1.6
3.0
                           11.4
                                      0.2
                                      1.5
                                      0.3
                                      1.9
                                      0.7
                                      2.1
                                      1.0
                                      1.8
                                      3.4

                                     13.0
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.3
0.5
1.5
0.7
1.2
2.0

8.7
0.1
0.8
0.2
1.0
0.3
1.1
0.5
1.0
1.6
                               6.6
80.2
82.8
75.0
79.6
72.0
79.2
79.6
76.4
68.6

76.1
50.2
53.9
58.8
52.6
38.0
55.3
51.6
51.9
45.9

50.5
Note:   Figures may not add to totals  due  to rounding.  Discrepancies between this  table and
       Table  A-14 due to discrepancies  in the source.

aPersons  age  14 and over for 1960;  age  16 and over for 1970 and  1976.
bCivilian labor force.

Source:   Adapted from U.S. Department of  Commerce 1979a.
                                            91

-------
                                          TABLE A-14

                            OCCUPATION  OF EMPLOYED  PERSONS:
                                 SOUTH ATLANTIC  DIVISION


Total Employed
(Thousands)
by Occupation

and Kindred Workers
Managers and Adminis-
Sales Workers
Clerical Workers
Craft and Kindred Workers
Operatives, Including
Transport
Farm Workers
Service Workers

Total Employed
(Thousands)
by Occupation
Professional, Technical
and Kindred Workers
Managers and Adminis-
Sales Workers
Clerical Workers
Craft and Kindred Workers
Transport
Laborers, Except Farm
Farm Workers
Service Workers
South
1970
11,461


14.0

6.9
17.1
14.2

Atlantic
1976
14,048


14.9

5.9
17.3
12.9

18.4 16.1
3.1 2.8
12.9
West
1970
550


12.5

6.1
14.0
17.4
21.6
6.2
1.6
12.8
13.8
Virginia
1976
679


11.8

5.5
13.9
17.1
18.5
7.8
1.8
13.6
Delaw
1970
221


18.3

6.6
17.9
14.6

15.9
2.1
12.5
are
1976
242


17.8

5.4
17.4
12.8

13.2
1.7
14.9
North Carolina
1970
i,984


11.0

6.0
14.0
14.5
26.3
5.0
4.6
11.0
1976
2,432


11.8

5.0
14.2
12.9
23.6
6.3
3.9
13.3
Maryla
1970
1,539


18.9

7.0
21.2
13.7

13.4
1.4
11.7
nd
1976
i,826


19.9

5.5
20.5
11.9

11.5
0.9
13.2
South Carolina
1970
955


11.5

6.0
12.7
15.2
26.1
5.5
3.6
12.3
1976
i,156


11.5

5.8
14.1
15.0
23.2
5.9
3.6
11.2
District of
1970
335


19.1

3.6
28.5
7.2

8.9
0.3
21.0
Ceor
1970
1,747


12.0

6.9
16.4
13.9
20.9
5.2
3.6
12.8
Columbia
1976
308


23.2

2.9
27.4
7.1

6.5
0.6
18.7
gia
1976
2,033


14.1

6.4
16.7
11.5
17.6
5.7
3.4
13.4
Virglt
1970
1,714


16.0

6.5
17.9
14.2

17.2
2.7
12.1
Flor
1970
2,426


13.8

8.7
17.9
14.5
12.3
5.2
3.2
15.0
lia
1976
2,133


17.0

5.0
17.4
13.9

14.4
3.2
13.4
Ida
1976
3,238


14.3

7.4
18.9
12.8
11. 1
5.0
2.5
15.3
Note:  Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.


Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce  1979a.

-------
o  Clerical workers gained in percent of total in the southern
   states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and
   Florida, but declined in the remaining states over the
   period.

A.2.1.7  Employment by Industry (Table A-15)

o  The most significant gain in percent of total employment by
   an industrial category in the division was made by the pro-
   fessional and related services category, followed by whole-
   sale and retail trade between 1970 and 1976.

o  Finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) as well as business
   and repair services recorded gains in the states, while all
   other industrial categories declined during the six-year time
   period.

o  In all South Atlantic Division states except West Virginia,
   the percent of total employed in professional and related
   services rose between 1970 and 1976.

o  While employment in wholesale and retail trade increased in
   the division as a whole, Maryland, Virginia and the District
   of Columbia each experienced a decline in that category's
   percent of total employment.

o  Agriculture, forestry and fisheries declined in Virginia,
   West Virginia and South Carolina, while increasing in the
   region in general.

o  The business and repair services category increased its share
   of total employment in every state except Delaware between
   1970 and 1976.

A.2.2  Mountain Census Division

A.2.2.1  Population Growth (Table A-16)

o  Population in the Mountain Census Division is projected to
   almost triple during the last half of the century, increasing
   from the 1950 level of approximately 5 million to about 14.7
   million in the year 2000.  The rate of increase is expected
   to slow, however, declining from the 29.4 percent of the
   1970s to 20.7 percent in the 1980s and 13.9 percent in the
   1990s.
                             93

-------
          TABLE A-15

INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYED PERSONS
   SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION
South Atlantic

Total Employed
(Thousands)
Percent Distribution
by Industry
Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, Communication
and Public Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance and
Real Estate
Business and Repair Services
Personal, Entertainment and
Recreation Services
Professional and Related
Services
Public Administration
1970
11,461




3.8
0.8
7.2
24.0

6.6
19.3

4.5
2.9

6.8

16.3
7.6
1976
14,048




3.
0.
6.
21.

6.
20.

5.
3.

5.

19.
7.






6
7
4
6

2
3

2
5

9

2
5
Delaware
1970
211




2.6
0.1
7.6
29.6

5.9
19.1

4.4
3.6

5.1

17.3
4.4
1976
242




2.1
	
7.0
26.8

5.8
21.5

4.5
2.5

6.2

18.6
5.0
Maryland
1970
1,539




1.9
0.2
6.6
19.4

6.9
19.1

5.1
3.5

4.7

19.0
13.5
1976
1,826




1.5
0.1
6.2
15.8

6.0
18.9

5.4
4.2

5.4

21.9
14.5
District of
1970
335




0.5
0.1
4.8
4.8

6.2
14.3

5.1
3.8

9.8

23.3
27.1
Columbia
1976
308




0.3
	
3.9
4.5

4.9
14.0

5.5
5.8

7.1

26.9
27.3
Virginia
1970
1,714




3.3
1.0
7.4
22.4

6.7
18.0

4.4
2.6

5.9

16.9
11.4
1976
3,133




3.9
0.4
7.0
20.2

6.8
17.3

4.6
3.0

6.0

19.9
10.7

-------
                                                          TABLE  A-15  (Concluded)
Ui

Total Employed
(Thousands)
Percent Distribution
by Industry
Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, Communication
and Public Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance and
Real Estate
Business and Repair Services
Personal, Entertainment and
Recreation Services
Professional and Related
Services
Public Administration
West
1970
550




2.
8.
7.
23.

7.
19.

2.
2.

15.

17.
4.
Virginia






1
8
3
4

9
1

7
0

5

5
1
1976
679




2.2
9.8
7.3
19.1

7.0
20.1

3.5
2.1

5.7

17.5
5.6
North Carolina
1970
1,984




5.2
0.2
6.7
35.4

5.5
17.5

3.5
2.1

6.0

14.3
3.5
1976
2,432




4.
0.
6.
32.

4.
18.

4.
3.

3.

17.
4.






4
2
0
8

7
8

9
0

9

1
1
South Carolina
1970
955




4.2
0.2
7.4
36.2

4.8
16.7

3.3
2.0

7.1

14.4
3.9
1976
1,156




4.
0.
6.
35.

4.
17.

4.
2.

5.

16.
4.






5
2
2
0

8
3

0
8

1

1
1
1970
1,747




4.
0.
6.
36.

7.
19.

4.
2.

7.

14.
5.
Georgia






3
4
8
2

0
6

6
7

1

6
8
1976
2,033




4.1
0.5
6.0
24.5

6.6
21.3

4.8
3.3

6.1

17.7
5.4
Florida
1970
2,426




4.6
0.4
8.5
13.6

7.7
23.5

6.0
3.8

9.0

16.8
5.6
1976
3,238




3.9
0.2
6.9
12.2

7.1
25.2

6.7
4.1

7.6

20.7
5.3
        	 Represents zero or rounds  to zero.




        Note:  Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.




        Source:  U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.

-------
                                                 TABLE A-16

                                    POPULATION AND  GROWTH BY  DECADE:
                                            MOUNTAIN DIVISION
Mountain Population
Division
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
Note: Population
aFigures for 1980
1950
591
589
291
1,325
681
750
689
160
5,075
Percent Percent
Change Population Change Population
1950-60
14.2
13.3
13.6
32.4
39.6
73.7
29.3
78.2
35.1
forecast assumes a 2.1
were taken from Table
1960 1960-70 1970
675 2.9
667 6.8
330 0.7
1,754 25.8 2
951 6.8 1
1,302 36.0 1
891 18.9 1
285 71.3
6,855 20.8 8
fertility rate and 1970
1 in Current Population
694
713
332
,207
,016
,771
,059
489
,282
to 1975
Reports ,
Average Annual
Percent Percent Percent Rate of Change
Change Population Change Population Change Population 1975-2000b
1970-80
14.0
25.2
22.9
27.9
22.9
45.0
24.7
35.4
29.4
migration
No. 796;
1980a
791
893
408
2,823
1,249
2,568
1,321
662
10,715
trends.
1950 to
1980-90 1990 1990-2000 2000 (Percent)
13.0
18.8
16.2
20.8
17.4
27.0
18.9
20.8
20,7
894
1,061
474
3,409
1,466
3,261
1,571
800
12,936
4.3
12.6
11.2
14.2
11.6
17.2
13.0
13.5
13.9
Apparent data discrepancies due
1970 are from Tables 10 and 13 in
477
1,195
527
3,892
1,636
3,822
1,775
908
14,732
to rounding.
Statistical Abstract
10.6
15.0
13.2
16.5
13.9
20.8
15.2
16.6

of the
United States, 1979.
^Figures were taken from Table 3 in Current Population Reports,
No. 796.







Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c.

-------
o  Arizona is expected to record the most rapid increase of any
   state in the division over the 50-year period, followed by
   Nevada.  The population projected for the year 2000 is more
   than five times the 1950 level for both states.

o  Colorado ranks third in terms of overall population increase
   and is projected to make considerable advances during the
   1980s and 1990s.  Growth during those decades amounts to 20.8
   percent and 14.2 percent, respectively.  This results in
   Colorado ranking second only to Arizona in percent change
   between 1980 and 2000.

o  Colorado, Arizona and Nevada are projected to gain population
   more rapidly than the division as a whole between now and the
   end of the century.

o  Montana statistics reflect the lowest growth rate, followed
   by Wyoming and New Mexico.

A.2.2.2  Components of Growth (Table A-17)

o  Population increases in the division during the 1960s were
   primarily attributed to natural increase (births minus
   deaths).  This trend reversed between 1970 and 1980, however,
  > when positive net migration exceeded natural increase and
   became the dominant factor influencing population growth.

o  Positive net migration is projected to slow between now and
   the end of the century, however, resulting in the trend again
   reversing and natural increase becoming the dominant growth
   factor.

o  Births are expected to stabilize at about 2.2 million in the
   1980s and 1990s, with deaths increasing from just under 1
   million to about 1.2 million over the same time period.

o  Colorado, Arizona and Nevada were the only states in the
   division to record positive net migration in the 1960s.  All
   others experienced negative net migration.  Since 1970, how-
   ever, all states have recorded positive net migration and
   this trend is expected to continue through 2000.

o  Colorado is expected to record the highest number of births
   in every decade between 1960 and the year 2000, while Arizona
   is projected to experience the highest death counts over the
   same time period.
                            97

-------
                                                                TABLE  A-17


                                           COMPONENTS OF POPULATION  CHANGE  BY  DECADE:
                                                           MOUNTAIN DIVISION
CO
Mountain
Division
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
April 1,

Births
144
146
70
401
263
365
245
91
1,724
Note: Figures may not add to
aData from Table 12
^Data computed from
1960-April 1

, 1970a April 1, 1970- July


Deaths Net Mig. Births Deaths
66
58
28
163
68
122
65
31
602
totals due to
in Statistical Abstract
Table 4 In
-58
-42
-39
215
-130
228
-11
144
307 1,
rounding.
of the United
Current Population Reports
124.2 69.5
154.1 67.2
65.3 31.9
422.0 188.5
222.2 84.1
410.8 179.4
289.8 78.0
95.9 45.8
784.3 744.4

States, 1979.
, No. 796. Popu
1, 1980b

Net Mig.
38.6
93.2
42.3
379.8
94.0
560.7
49.4
123.7
1,381.7

lation forec
July 1, 1980- July

Births
147.0
184.6
77.5
552.1
267.2
541.5
339.4
123.3
2,232.6

:ast assumes

Deaths
77.0
81.2
37.1
226.6
108.7
259.0
95.4
65.6
950.6

1, 1990

Net Mig.
33.0
64.2
25.7
261.0
58.4
410.7
6.6
79.3
938.3

a 2.1 fertility rate
July 1,

Births
138.3
178.3
74.2
562.0
254.6
561.1
333.0
124.8
2,226.3

and 1970
1990-July

Deaths
90.8
101.1
45.5
284.0
139.1
350.0
118.3
87.1
1,215.9

1, 2000

Net Mig.
36.2
57.3
24.1
204.3
54.0
349.8
-11.2
70.9
785.4

to 1975 migration
        trends.
       GComprises both net immigration from abroad and net interdivisional or interstate migration according to the area shown.   Includes movements of
        persons in the armed forces.

       Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b,  1979c.

-------
o  Arizona is projected to have the highest positive net migra-
   tion and to follow Colorado closely in number of births in
   every decade.

o  Utah is projected to rank third in the number of births in
   the 1980s and 1990s.  Positive net migration, however, is
   expected to be lower there than in any other state between
   1980 and 1990 and to become negative during the 1990s.

A.2.2.3  Age Composition (Table A-18)

o  Population statistics in the division reflect an aging trend
   with those age 65 and over projected to increase from 8.4
   percent of the total in 1970 to 11.5 percent in the year
   2000.  Over the same time period, the portion under age 5 is
   expected to decline from 9 percent to 7.2 percent.

o  Nevada's elderly comprised the largest share of a state's
   population in 1970 at 6.3 percent, but the state is projected
   to rank second in this regard by 2000.  About 12.8 percent of
   the total state population will be age 65 or over at that
   time.

o  Arizona's population is projected to include a higher per-
   centage of the elderly than any other state in 1980, 1990 and
   2000, while Utah is expected to have the lowest percentage.

o  The under age 5 category is expected to make up a higher per-
   cent of the total population in Utah than in any other state
   for every year recorded.  Nevada statistics reflect the low-
   est percentage in that age group, except in 1970 when Montana
   had the lowest percent.

o  In absolute terms, Arizona is projected to record the great-
   est number of elderly beginning in 1980 and reaching a high
   of 517,000 in 2000.  This would be 13.5 percent of the total
   state population in that year.

A.2.2.4  Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Population (Table A-19)

o  Population increased in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan
   areas of the division between 1960 and 1977.

o  Metropolitan areas increased at a relatively constant rate
   throughout that time period.  Nonmetropolitan areas, however,
   increased more rapidly between 1970 and 1977 than they did
   during the 1960s.
                             99

-------
                                                 TABLE A-18



                                PROJECTIONS OF AGE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION

                                       BY DECADE:  MOUNTAIN DIVISION
o
o
Mountain
Division
1970
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
1980
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
Under
Number

57.1
63.9
28.4
186.6
96.8
.159.1
111.9
43.9
747.7

58.8
73.7
31.1
212.3
104.5
208.4
134.3
48.1
871.2
5 Years
Percent of
Total

8.2
9.0
8.5
8.4
9.5
9.0
10.6
9.0
9.0

7.4
8.3
7.6
7.5
8.4
8.1
10.2
7.3
8.1
5-14
Number

151.0
152.7
70.5
458.6
242.4
380.0
240.9
100.3
1,796.4

122.6
149.2
64.2
428.5
212.8
417.5
250.3
105.8
1,750.9
Years
Percent of
Total

21.7
21.4
21.2
20.8
23.8
21.4
22.7
20.5
21.7

15.5
16.7
15.7
15.2
17.0
16.3
19.0
16.0
16.3
15-64
Number

417.8
429.0
203.4
1,377.3
607.6
1,075.1
629.5
313.7
5,053.4

523.9
577.3
274.2
1,940.7
819.8
1,652.6
830.1
449.0
7,067.6
Years3
Percent of
Total

60.2
60.2
61.2
62.3
59.7
60.6
59.4
64.2
61.0

66.3
64.6
67.2
68.7
65.6
64.4
62.9
67.8
66.0
65 Years
Number

68.5
67.4
30.1
187.1
70.3
161.2
77.0
30.8
692.4

85.4
92.8
38.6
241.4
112.0
289.0
105.8
59.5
1,024.5
and Over
Percent of
Total

9.9
9.5
9.1
8.5
6.9
9.1
7.3
6.3
8.4

10.8
10.4
9.5
8.6
9.0
11.3
8.0
9.0
9.6
Total

694.4
713.0
332.4
2,209.6
1,017.1
1,775.4
1,059.3
488.7
8,289.4

790.7
893.0
408.1
2,822.9
1,249.1
2,567.5
1,320.5
662.4
10,714.2

-------
                                                 TABLE  A-18  (Concluded)
Mountain
Division
1990
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
2000
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
Under
Number

71.7
90.9
38.1
278.9"
129.4
275.3
164.2
62.7
1,111.2

65.2
84.2
35.2
268.7
118.5
269.4
155.3
59.8
1,056.3
5 Years
Percent of
Total

8.0
8.6
8.0
8.2
8.8
8.4
10.5
7.8
8.6

6.7
7.0
6.7
6.9
7.2
7.0
8.8
6.6
7.2
5-14
Number

134.9
169.4
71.0
500.6
238.0
506.2
289.3
119.3
2,028.7

147.9
188.4
78.5
577.3
263.4
588.5
321.0
136.4
2,301.4
Years
Percent of
Total

15.1
16.0
15.0
14.7
16.2
15.5
18.4
14.9
15.7

15.1
15.8
14.9
14.8
16.1
15.4
18.1
15.0
15.6
15-64
Number

579.0
678.1
313.6
2,308.6
940.5
2,053.1
979.7
524.6
8,377.2

645.0
783.1
351.8
2,661.7
1,060.0
2,446.8
1,139.6
595.9
9,683.9
Years3
Percent of
Total

64.8
63.9
66.1
67.7
64.2
63.0
62.4
65.6
64.8

66.0
65.5
66.7
68.4
64.8
64.0
64.2
65.6
65.7
65 Years
Number

108.1
122.2
51.6
321.3
158.1
426.1
137.8
92.9
1,418.1

119.3
139.6
61.6
383.8
193.6
517.0
158.6
116.1
1,689.6
and Over
Percent of
Total

12.1
11.5
10.9
9.4
10.8
13.1
8.8
11.6
11.0

12.2
11.7
11.7
9.9
11.8
13.5
8.9
12.8
11.5
Total

893.7
1,060.6
474.3
3,409.4
1,466.0
3,260.7
1,571.0
799.5
12,935.2

977.4
1,195.3
527.1
3,891.5
1,635.5
3,821.7
1,774.5
908.2
14,731.2
Note:   Population forecast assumes  a  2.1 fertility  rate and 1970  to 1975 migration trends.




aComputed from data in Table 6, Current Population  Report, No.  796.




Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b.

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                                                     TABLE  A-19

                                           MOUNTAIN DIVISION  POPULATION
                                 BY  METROPOLITAN  AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS
Mountain
Division
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
I—1 New Mexico
j^j Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total


Metropolitan
Nonmetropolitan
Percent Change Percent Change
I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b
152
93
1,326
276
929
683
212
3,672
11.0
20.1
34.0
20.6
42.4
23.4
86.2
34.8
169
112
1,776
333
1,323
843
394
4,951
10.3
28.9
X
19.1
20.7
31.8
18.5
31.3
23.4
187
145
X
2,116
402
1,743
1,000
518
6,110
Percent Change Percent Change
I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b
522
574
330
428
675
373
207
74
3,183
0.6
4.7
0.7
1.1
1.4
21.3
4.3
28.4
4.9
525
601
332
433
684
453
216
94
3,338
10.
18.
22.
17.
16.
30.
25.
26.
19.
3
4
1
6
1
8
2
2
2
579
711
406
509
794
592
270
119
3,981
	 Represents zero or rounds to zero.  X = Not appropriate

Note:  Apparent data discrepancies due  to rounding.

aApril
bJuly

Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979c.

-------
o  Nevada recorded the highest percentage change of any state in
   population of both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas
   between 1960 and 1970.  Arizona, however, surpassed Nevada
   between 1970 and 1977 in terms of percent increase, recording
   the highest change.

o  Montana statistics reflect the lowest percentage increase in
   population of all states for both metropolitan and non-
   metropolitan areas throughout the time period.

A. 2.2.5  Labor Force Participation (Table A-20)

o  The female labor force in the division increased by slightly
   more than 1 million workers between 1960 and 1976, compared
   to a male labor force gain of approximately 900,000.

o  The female participation rate rose from 33.1 percent in 1960
   to 49.7 percent in 1976, while male participation increased
   from 74.6 percent to 80.1 percent.

o  New Mexico recorded the lowest participation rates of any
   state for both males and females in 1960 and 1970.  In 1976,
   however, female participation surpassed that of Arizona,
   while male participation remained the lowest of any state.

o  Female participation was higher in Nevada than in any other
   state in the division for all years recorded, reaching 56.1
   percent in 1976.  However, male participation was highest in
   Utah in 1960, Nevada in 1970 and Wyoming in 1976.

o  In 1976, Arizona, Colorado and Wyoming recorded female par-
   ticipation rates higher than the division level of 49.7 per-
   cent.  Rates in all other states were lower than that level.

o  Male participation rates in 1976 were higher than the divi-
   sion rate of 80.1 percent in all states except Montana, New
   Mexico and Arizona.

o  Arizona and New Mexico were the only two states with both
   female and male participation rates below the division levels
   in every year recorded.

A.2.2.6  Employment by Occupation (Table A-21)

o  The largest percentage increase in employment among occupa-
   tion categories in the division between 1970 and  1976 was
   realized by the managers and administration group.
                            103

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                                      TABLE  A-20

              POPULATION,  LABOR FORCE  AND PARTICIPATION RATE
                            BY  SEX:   MOUNTAIN DIVISION
                             Population3
                                                  Labor Forcec
                                          Partlcipation  Rate
                                               (Percent)
Mountain
Division
1960
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
Male

234
226
115
595
305
435
281
105
2,295
Female

225
222
109
617
302
436
290
97
2,297
Male

175
176
90
440
215
314
221
80
1,711
Female

73
71
37
212
91
140
94
40
760
Male

74.8
77.9
78.3
73.9
70.5
72.2
78.6
76.2
74.6
Female

32.4
32.0
33.9
34.4
30.1
32.1
32.4
41.2
33.1
  1970
  Montana
  Idaho
  Wyoming
  Colorado
  New Mexico
  Arizona
  Utah
  Nevada

    Division Total

  1976
  Montana
  Idaho
  Wyoming
  Colorado
  New Mexico
  Arizona
  Utah
  Nevada

    Division Total
  233
  236
  112
  737
  316
  578
  330
  170

2,713
  260
  282
  131
  862
  371
  759
  391
  209

3,265
  238
  243
  114
  779
  336
  617
  351
  165

2,842
  274
  294
  138
  948
  422
  833
  416
  221

3,546
  169
  177
   84
  531
  219
  401
  254
  131

1,966
  208
  232
  109
  713
  281
  577
  322
  173

2,614
   92
   95
   46
  331
  124
  240
  145
   78

1,150
  133
  141
   71
  511
  199
  381
  202
  124

1,762
72.5
75.0
75.0
72.0
69.3
69.4
77.0
77.1
72.5
80.0
82.3
83.2
82.7
75.7
76.0
82.4
82.8

80.1
38,
39.
40.
42.
38
41
47
            36.9
            40.5
48.5
48.0
51.4
53.9
47.2
45.7
48.6
56.1
                                                                                 49.7
Note:   Figures may not add  to  totals due to rounding.  Discrepancies between this table and
       Table A-30 due to discrepancies in the source.

aPersons age 14 and over for  1960; age 16 and over  for 1970 and 1976.
Civilian labor force.

Source:  Adapted from U.S.  Department of Commerce  1979a.
                                           104

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                                                                                  TABLE  A-21

                                                                 OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS:
                                                                           MOUNTAIN  DIVISION
                                                   Mountain
                                                         1976   1970  1976  1970  1976  1970  1976   1970    1976    1970  1976   1970  1976  1970  1976  1970  1976
Total Employed
(Thousands)
Percent Distribution
by Occupation
2,964 4,050 245 319 257 351 123 174 826 1,142 323 437 614 860 379 493 198 274
                         Professional,  Technical
                           and Kindred  Workers      16.6    16.2   14.3  12.6  13.6  13.1  15.3  14.5   17.9    17.2    19.0  18.9   16.6  17.4  17.2  16.8  14.2  12.8

                         Managers and Adminis-
°                         trators, Except Farm      9.7    11.9   10.2  10.7   9.7  U.I  11.3  12.7    9.6    12.2    9.7  11.6   9.6  11.9   9.2  12.0  10.2  13.2
                         Sales Workers              7.0     6.7    6.6   5.7   6.6   6.3   5.6   5.2    7.7     7.2    6.4   6.8   7.8   7.2   7.0   6.3   5.7   5.5

                         Clerical Workers           17.0    18.1   14.3  15. i  13.2  14.8  14.5  15.6   18.6    19.1    16.4  18.9   17.2  19.5  18.5  17.4  16.9  18.6

                         Craft and Kindred
                           Workers                 13.3    13.1   12.7  13.2  12.8  13.1  13.7  14.5   12.5    12.4    13.3  13.4   14.0  12.9  14.5  15.4  13.3  11.0

                         Operatives , Including
                           Transport               12.4    10.5   11.1   9.1  14.3  12.5  12.1  10.4   11.9    10.6    12.2   9.8   13.6  10.5  13.5  11.8   9.2   7.3

                         Laborers, Except Farm       4.4     5.2    4.5   5.7   5.4   6.0   4.0   4.6    4.0     5.1    4.5   5.2   4.8   5.3   4.3   5.5   3.8   3.7

                         Farmworkers               5.0     4.1   11.5  12.3  11.2  11.1   8.9   8.1    3.9     2.9    3.8   2.5   2.9   2.0   3.1   2.2   1.9   1.1

                         Service Workers           14.5    14.2   14.8  15.7  13.2  12.3  14.5  14.5   13.9    13.5    14.7  12.8   13.6  13.4  12.7  12.6  24.7  26.7




                       Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.

-------
o  Clerical workers recorded the second largest increase during
   that time period, followed by laborers.  All other categor-
   ies, including professional and technical workers, recorded
   declines in percent of total employment with operatives
   declining the most.

o  Professional and technical workers declined as a percentage
   of the division total, but the category increased as a per-
   cent of the total in Arizona between 1970 and 1976.  It
   declined in all other states.

o  Other changes that reflect opposite trends from that of the
   division in general are the increase in sales workers in New
   Mexico, the decrease in clerical workers in Utah and the
   increase in laborers in Montana.  Service workers also
   increased as a percent of the total employed in Montana and
   Nevada, while declining in all other states.

A.2.2.7  Employment by Industry (Table A-22)

o  The largest gain in percent of total employment by an indus-
   trial category in the division between 1970 and 1976 was made
   by FIRE, followed by wholesale and retail trade.  Construc-
   tion and business and repair services also reflected slight
   increases during that time period.  All other industrial cat-
   egories recorded declines in percent of total employment.

o  Mining was the only industrial category that reflected a con-
   sistent decline throughout the division between 1970 and
   1976.  It decreased in percent of total employment in every
   state.

o  Conversely, FIRE recorded consistent percentage increases,
   gaining in every state in the division during the same time
   period.

o  Business and repair service declined only in New Mexico.
   This was in contrast to the increasing trend in all other
   states and the division as a whole.

A.2.3  Middle Atlantic Census Division

A.2.3.1  Population Growth (Table A-23)

o  The Middle Atlantic Census Division's population is expected
   to increase from the 30 million recorded in  1950 to about
   38.5 million in 2000.
                            106

-------
                                                            TABLE  A-22
                                             INDUSTRY  OF EMPLOYED  PERSONS:
                                                      MOUNTAIN DIVISION
Mountain

Total Employed
(Thousands)
Percent Distribution
by Industry
Agriculture, Forestry
and Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
1970
2,964

5.9
2.9
6.8
12.7
1976
4,050

5.5
2.3
7.3
11.5
Montana
1970 1976
245 319

13.4 14.1
2.4 1.9
6.4 6.3
9.6 8.1
Idaho
1970
257

13.0
1.5
6.5
14.7
1976
351

13.6
1.4
7.6
15.0
Wyoming
1970 1976
123 174

10.0 9.2
9.0 8.7
6.9 10.4
6.5 5.2
Colorado
1970
826

4.6
1.7
6.6
14.5
1976
1,142

4.1
1.6
7.3
13.8
New Mexico
1970
323

4.8
5.6
7.4
6.6
1976
437

3.4
3.9
8.7
7.8
Arizona
1970
614

4.0
3.1
7.6
15.7
1976
860

3.4
2.2
5.8
12.7
Utah
1970 1976
379 493

3.8 3.0
3.0 2.4
5.5 8.1
14.6 13.2
Nev2
1970
198

2.4
1.9
8.2
5.1
Ida
1976
274

1.8
0.7
6.6
5.5
  Transportation,
    Communication  and
    Public Utilities

  Wholesale and Retail
    Trade

  Finance, Insurance
    and Real Estate

  Business and
    Repair Services

  Personal, Entertain-
    ment and Recreation
    Services

  Professional and
    Related Services

  Public Administration
 7.1     6.5    8.0   8.2   7.1   5.7    8.9   7.5    7.4     6.5    6.8   6.9   6.1    5.1   6.7    7.3   7.8   7.4


21.7    22.6   22.3  21.6  22.7  21.5   20.3  20.2   22.3    23.2   21.0  23.6  21.9   23.5  21.6   22.3  19.1  20.6


 4.8     6.3    3.9   4.7   3.9   4.8    3.3   4.0    5.6     7.3    4.1   5.5   5.7    8.3   4.2    5.3   4.2   4.8


 3.6     4.1    2.3   2.8   3.5   4.0    2.6   2.9    3.4     3.9    5.3   4.8   3.7    4.9   2.7    3.4   5.2   4.4



 7.3     7.3    5.8   6.0   5.5   4.8    6.8   6.4    5.8     6.2    6.7   5.3   6.6    6.4   4.9    5.3  24.5  26.5


19.8     19.2   19.9  19.7   16.5  16.7   19.4  19.7   21.3    19.1   22.7  22.2  19.3   20.3  20.0   19.3  14.2  14.0

 7.4     7.3    5.9   6.6   5.1   4.8    6.3   5.8    6.6     7.1    8.9   8.0   6.4    7.4  12.6   10.1   7.3   7.7
Note:   Percentages may not add to 100 due  to rounding.

Source:   Adapted from U.S. Department of'Commerce 1979a.

-------
                                                                      TABLE  A-23

                                                      POPULATION AND GROWTH BY  DECADE:
                                                            MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
o
CO
Average Annual
Middle
Atlantic
Division
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total

Population
1950
14,830
4,835
10,498
30,164
Percent
Change
1950-60
13.2
25.5
7.8
13.3

Population
1960
16,782
6,067
11,319
34,168
Percent
Change
1960-70
8.7
18.2
4.2
8.9

Population
1970
18,237
7,168
11,794
37,199
Percent
Change
1970-80
-1.9
4.5
0.8
0.2

Population
1980a
17,902
7,492
11,884
37,278
Percent
Change
1980-90
0.5
6.9.
2.6
2.5

Population
1990
17,995
8,010
12,191
38,196
Percent
Change
1990-2000
-0.2
5.2
1.0
1.3

Population
2000
17,961
8,425
12,317
38,703
Rate of Change
1975-2000b
(Percent)
-0.3
5.5
1.5

          Note:  Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends.  Apparent data discrepancies due to  rounding.

          aFlgures for  1980 were taken from Table 1 in Current Population Reports, No.  796; 1950 to 1970 are from Tables  10 and 13 In Statistical Abstract of the
           United States, 1979.
          ^Figures were taken from Table 3 in Current Population Reports, No. 796.

          Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c.

-------
o  The highest rate of change occurred in the 1950s, with a 13.3
   percent increase, followed by an 8.9 percent increase between
   1960 and 1970.

o  Growth is projected to remain under 3 percent per decade
   between now and the year 2000, with the population increasing
   by only about 1.4 million people by the end of the century.

o  New York experienced a population decline in the 1970s and
   another slight decrease is expected between 1990 and the year
   2000.  This would result in an overall decline by the end of
   the century of about 276,000 people from the peak of 18.2
   million reached in 1970.

o  Pennsylvania has recorded the most stable population of the
   division in the past, and only slight increases are projected
   through the remainder of the century.  Over the entire 50-
   year period, the state is expected to experience a population
   increase of only about 1.8 million people.

o  New Jersey projections reflect the most rapid growth, with
   the population expected to increase by approximately 3.6 mil-
   lion over the 1950 level of about 4.8 million.  This would
   result in a total population of 8.4 million by 2000.

o  Average annual rates of change between 1975 and 2000 range
   from minus 0.3 percent in New York to plus 5.5 percent in
   New Jersey.

A.2.3.2  Components of Growth (Table A-24)

o  Negative net migration is expected for the division in every
   decade from 1970 to the year 2000.  Births are also projected
   to decline in number from about 6 million in the 1980s to
   approximately 5.6 million between 1990 and 2000.

o  All three states recorded negative net migration during the
   1970s.  This trend is expected to continue in New York and
   Pennsylvania, with New York projected to have the highest
   negative rate.  However, an opposite trend is expected in New
   Jersey, with net migration there projected to be positive
   throughout the remainder of the century.

o  The number of births per decade is projected to be greater
   in all states in the 1980s than the number between 1970 and
   1980.  This trend is expected to be reversed between 1990 and
   2000, however, when the number of births in all states will
   be lower than during the current decade.  Deaths will
   increase slightly over this same time period.

                            109

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                                                            TABLE  A-24

                                      COMPONENTS  OF  POPULATION CHANGE  BY  DECADE:
                                                  MIDDLE  ATLANTIC DIVISION
Middle Atlantic
Division
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
April 1,
Births
3,361
1,259
2,105
6,725
1960-April 1, 1970a
Deaths
1,852
645
1,252
3,749
Net Mig.
-51
488
-378
59
April 1,
Births
2,614.7
1,046.6
1,679.9
5,341.2
1970-July
Deaths
1,867.1
707.8
1,291.2
3,866.1
1, 1980b
Net Mig.
-1,087.2
-17.9
-305.4
-1,410.5
July 1,
Births
2,887.7
1,247.5
1,875.9
6,011.1
1980-July
Deaths
1,855.9
772.0
1,335.6
3,963.5
1, 1990
Net Mig.
-938.3
42.7
-233.7
-1,129.3
July 1, 1990-July
Births
2,677.8
1,199.6
1,694.0
5,571.4
Deaths
1,864.6
852.8
1,407.8
4,125.2
1, 2000
Net Mig.
-847.3
68.3
-159.4
-938.4
Note:  Comprises both net  immigration from abroad and net interdivisional or interstate migration according to the area shown.  Includes movements of
      persons  in the armed forces.

aData from Table 12 in Statistical Abstract of  the United States,  1979.
^Data computed  from Table  4 in Current Population Reports, No. 796.  Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970  to 1975 migration
 trends.

Source:  U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c.

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A.2.3.3  Age Composition (Table A-25)

o  Division population statistics reflect an aging trend.  The
   percent of the total population in the age 65 and over cate-
   gory is expected to increase every decade, from a low of 10.5
   percent in 1970 to a high of 12.8 percent in the year 2000.

o  The size of the group under age 5 fluctuates over time, but
   reflects a general declining trend through 2000 when the
   annual decrease is expected to reach 6.8 percent.  This is
   slightly higher than the current 6.6 percent, but still below
   the 1970 high of 8.1 percent.

o  Pennsylvania is projected to experience the largest increase
   in elderly population, which reaches 13.9 percent of the
   total in the year 2000.  This compares to 10.7 percent in
   1970 and the current level of 12.7 percent.  The under age 5
   population also reaches a lower level in Pennsylvania than in
   the other two states, dropping to 6.4 percent in 2000.

o  Projections for New York and New Jersey show percentage
   increases for the elderly through 1990, but the percent of
   total population age 65 and over decreases slightly in the
   year 2000 for both states.

A.2.3.4  Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Population (Table A-26)

o  Metropolitan population in the division increased during the
   1960s but declined between 1970 and 1977.

o  Nonmetropolitan population, however, continued to increase
   throughout the time period, reaching a high of 5 million in
   1977.  This compares to 4.3 million in 1960 and 4.6 million
   in 1970.

o  All states recorded increases in metropolitan population
   between 1960 and 1970.  Only New Jersey, however, continued
   this positive trend to 1977.  New York and Pennsylvania both
   experienced declines in metropolitan population after  1970.

o  Nonmetropolitan population increased in all states from 1960
   to 1977.

A.2.3.5  Labor Force Participation (Table A-27)

o  The female labor force in the division increased by 2.4 mil-
   lion workers between 1960 and 1976, compared to a male gain
   of about 700,000 over the same time period.

                             Ill

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                                                     TABLE A-25

                               PROJECTIONS  OF AGE  COMPOSITION  OF POPULATION
                                    BY  DECADE:   MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
Middle Atlantic
Division
1970
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
1980
New York
New Jersey
P Pennsylvania
N3
Division Total
1990
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
2000
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
Under 5
Years
Percent of
Numbe r Tot al
1,487.9
589.8
927.1
3,004.8
1,194.5
502.5
781.1
2,478.1
1,408.2
628.7
913.5
2,950.4
1,249.3
573.7
792.3
2,615.3
8.2
8.2
7.8
8.1
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.6
7.8
7.8
7.5
7.7
6.9
6.8
6.4
6.8
5-14 Years
Numbe r
3,393.5
1,404.5
2,253.7
7,051.7
2,626.7
1,126.8
1,705.0
5,458.5
2,542.0
1,164.7
1,694.0
5,400.7
2,714.9
1,300.4
1,788.6
5,803.9
Percent of
Total
18.6
19.6
19.1
18.9
14.7
15.0
14.3
14.6
14.1
14.5
13.9
14.1
15.1
15.4
14.5
15.0
15-64 Years3
Numbe r
11,408.7
4,483.0
7,353.0
23,244.7
11,966.4
5,009.5
7,892.6
24,868.5
11,807.5
5,189.2
7,849.0
24,845.7
11,812.7
5,483.3
8,027.2
25,323.2
Percent of
Total
62.5
62.5
62.3
62.5
66.8
66.9
66.4
66.7
65.6
64.8
64.4
65.0
65.8
65.1
65.2
65.4
65 Years and Over
Percent of
Number Total
1,951.3
693.8
1,267.0
3,912.1
2,114.2
853.3
1,505.4
4,472.9
2,237.7
1,027.6
1,734.2
4,999.5
2,184.4
1,067.9
1,709.4
4,961.7
10.7
9.7
10.7
10.5
11.8
11.4
12.7
12.0
12.4
12.8
14.2
13.1
12.2
12.7
13.9
12.8
Total
18,241.4
7,171.1
11,800.8
37,213.3
17,901.8
7,492.1
11,884. 1
37,278.0
17,995.4
8,010.2
12,190.7
38,196.3
17,961.3
8,425.3
12,317.5
38,704.1
Note:  Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration  trends.  Discrepancies between this table  and Table
      A-19 due to discrepancies  in the source  documents.

aComputed from data in Table 6, Current Population Report, No. 796.

Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department  of Commerce 1979b.

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                                              TABLE  A-26

                                MIDDLE  ATLANTIC DIVISION POPULATION
                             BY METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS
Metropolitan Nonmetropolitan
Middle Atlantic Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change
Division I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b
New York 15.0 8.8 16.3 -2.6 15.9 1.8 7.6 1.9 10.7
New Jersey 5.8 16.3 6.8 0.1 6.8 0.3 59.6 0.4 5.8
Pennsylvania 9.1 5.0 9.6 -0.9 4.5 2.2 1.2 2.2 18.8
Division Total 29.9 9.1 32.6 -1.6 32.1 4.3 7.5 4.6 12.3
Note: Apparent data discrepancies due to rounding.
aApril.
bjuly.
2.1
0.6
2.3
5.0


Source:  U.S.  Department of Commerce 1979c.

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                                        TABLE  A-27

                   POPULATION,  LABOR FORCE  AND PARTICIPATION  RATE
                          BY SEX:  MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
Population3
Middle Atlantic
Division
1960
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
1970
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
1976
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
Male
5.8
2.1
3.9
11.9
6.0
2.4
3.9
12.3
6.1
2.5
4.0
12.7
Female
6.5
2.3
4.3
13.1
7.0
2.7
4.5
14.1
7.2
2.8
4.6
14.6
Labor
Male
4.5
1.6
3.0
9.2
4.5
1.8
3.0
9.3
4.7
2.0
3.1
9.9
Forceb
Female
2.4
0.8
1.4
4.6
2.9
1.1
1.7
5.8
3.4
1.4
2.1
7.0
Participation Rate
(Percent)
Male
77.4
77.5
76.1
77.0
75.1
77.5
75.4
75.7
77.1
79.2
77.2
77.6
Female
36.9
35.5
33.3
35.5
41.3
42.5
39.4
40.9
47.5
49.7
45.4
47.3
Note:   Figures may not add to totals  due to rounding.  Discrepancies between this table and Table
       A-22 due to discrepancies in the source.

aPersons age 14 and over for 1960;  age 16 and over for 1970 and 1976.
^Civilian labor force.

Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.

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o  Female participation rose from  35.5 percent in  1960 to 47.3
   percent in  1976.  At the same time, male participation fluc-
   tuated from 77.0 percent in  1960, to 75.7 in  1970 and 77.6 in
   1976.

o  New York and Pennsylvania experienced a fluctuating trend in
   male participation similar to that of the region, while New
   Jersey recorded a steady rate in the 1960s with a slight rise
   by 1976.

o  Female participation, on the other hand, increased in every
   state between 1960 and  1976.  The highest female rate
   occurred in New Jersey  in 1976 when it reached 49.7 percent,
   up from the 35.5 level  of 1960.

o  Pennsylvania's female participation rate was lower than the
   division levels in every year recorded.  Conversely, New York
   and New Jersey rates were equal to or greater than division
   levels throughout the period.

A.2.3.6  Employment by Occupation  (Table A-28)

o  Change in the percent of total employment by occupation
   category in the Middle Atlantic Census Division between
   1970 and 1976 was greatest for managers and administrators,
   followed by professional and technical workers.  Both
   categories  increased their shares of total employment.

o  Laborers, farm workers and service workers also experienced
   slight percentage gains over the six years.

o  All other occupation categories declined over that time
   period, with operatives experiencing the largest decrease.

o  The only divergence from division trends was in New Jersey
   where the clerical workers' proportion of total employment
   remained steady rather than declining as for the division.

A.2.3.7  Employment by Industry (Table A-29)

o  The most significant gain in employment distribution by
   industrial  category in the division was made in professional
   and related services, which increased in percent of total
   employment  from 18.0 to 21.1 percent between 1970 and 1976.
   This was followed by wholesale and retail trade, which gained
   1 percent of the total over the same time period.
                            115

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                                               TABLE  A-28

                                   OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS:
                                       MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
Middle Atlantic
1970 1976
Total Employed
(Thousands) 14,520 15,111
Percent Distribution
by Occupation
Professional, Technical
and Kindred Workers 15.7 17.5
Managers and Adminis-
trators, Except Farm 8.1 10.7
Sales Workers 7.4 6.0
Clerical Workers 20.4 19.7
Craft and Kindred
Workers 13.3 12.2
Operatives, Including
Transport 17.9 14.8
Laborers, Except Farm 4.0 4.1
Farm Workers 1.0 1.4
Service Workers 12.2 13.6
New York New Jersey Pennsylvania
1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976

7,124 7,304 2,859 3,054 4,537 4,753



16.7 18.8 16.1 17.9 13.8 15.1

8.5 11.3 8.8 11.8 7.0 9.3
7.5 5.8 7.7 6.6 7.0 5.8
22.4 21.4 20.2 19.5 17.3 17.3

12.2 11.2 13.7 12.4 14.9 13.7

15.1 13.0 18.6 14.5 21.8 17.8
3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.9 4.9
1.0 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9
13.0 13.8 10.7 12.2 12.0 14.2
Source:  Adapted from U.S.  Department of Commerce 1979a.

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                                              TABLE  A-29

                                  INDUSTRY OF  EMPLOYED  PERSONS:
                                      MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
Middle Atlantic
1970 1976
Total Employed
(Thousands) 14,520 15,111
Percent Distribution
by Industry
Agriculture, Forestry
and Fisheries 1.4 1.8
Mining 0.4 0.4
Construction 5.1 4.7
Manufacturing 28.8 24.1
Transportation,
Communication and
Public Utilities 7.4 7.2
Wholesale and
Retail Trade 19.3 20.3
Finance, Insurance
and Real Estate 6.2 6.0
Business and Repair
Services 3.6 3.9
Personal, Entertain-
ment and Recreation
Services 4.6 4.8
Professional and
Related Services 18.0 21.1
Public Administration 5.2 5.7
New York New Jersey Pennsylvania
1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976

7,124 7,304 2,859 3,054 4,537 4,753



1.3 1.5 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.5
0.2 	 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.2
4.8 4.1 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.2
24.2 21.4 32.2 25.1 34.0 27.7


8.0 8.0 7.6 7.3 6.4 5.8

19.5 20.3 19.1 20.6 18.9 20.1

7.5 6.6 6.1 6.5 4.2 4.8

4.1 4.3 3.9 4.1 2.8 3.3


5.2 4.9 4.0 4.8 4.2 4.7

19.7 23.2 15.8 18.8 16.7 19.4
5.5 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.7 5.4
	Represents zero or rounds to zero.

Note:  Percentages may not add to 100  due to rounding.

Source:  U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.

-------
o  Manufacturing suffered the largest decline, dropping from
   28.8 percent of the total to 24.1 percent over the six-year
   period.  Slight decreases were also experienced in construc-
   tion, transportation and FIRE.

o  All three states reflected changes similar to those of the
   division as a whole, for the most part, with professional and
   related services recording the largest gain and manufacturing
   the greatest decline between 1970 and 1976.

o  Two changes were the reverse of the division trend, however.
   New Jersey and Pennsylvania recorded a decrease in FIRE com-
   pared to a regional increase.  Also, personal entertainment
   and recreation declined in New York while it increased at the
   division level.
                           118

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                                  123

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   Department Approval: x
MITRE Project Approval:

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