Demographic Change and
Environmental Risk:
A Future Perspective
The MITRE Corporation
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Demographic Change and
Environmental Risk:
A Future Perspective
Jan F. Sassaman
JohnE. Singley
Richard K. Travis
January 1981
MTR-80W298
Sponsor: Environmental Protection Agency
Contract No.: EPA-68-01-5064
The MITRE Corporation
Metrek Division
1820 Dolley Madison Boulevard
McLean, Virginia 22102
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ABSTRACT
This paper presents a conceptual framework linking change in
population characteristics in the United States with changes in
vulnerability to pollutants and in tendencies for persons to come in
contact with pollutants. The relationship between changes in
population distribution and pollution levels is also explored, as is
the relationship between the probability that a pollutant will cause
harm and human vulnerability to and contact with a pollutant.
Demographic trends at the national level and for three regions are
described with respect to demographic variables that may influence
vulnerability to environmental hazards. Finally, two methods for
analyzing the relationship between demographic variables and the
probability of harm from environmental pollutants at the regional
level are demonstrated, and implications for further research are
drawn.
ill
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PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This is one of several documents on environmental trends and
future problems produced to support the Environmental Protection
Agency's Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS)
in preparing its annual Environmental Outlook report. That report
assists the Agency in its long-range research and development role.
Last year's Environmental Outlook 1980 was an ambitious project,
covering a broad spectrum of issues. This year, studies like this
one focus on selected issues, dealing with them in greater depth.
This approach was conceived by Dr. Irvin L. (Jack) White, formerly
with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and project guidance
was provided by John W. Reuss, OSASS director.
MITRE staff members who played central roles in the development
of this study included: Brian Price, program manager; Beth Borko,
project manager; Vivian Aubuchon, editorial support; and Carol
Kulhman, production support.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES vi
LIST OF TABLES vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xi
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 A New Approach 3
1.2 Outlook on Jeopardy 9
2.0 ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY 11
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 Natural Selection and Cultural Evolution 12
2.3 Relationships of Activity, Attitudes and 19
Attributes to Environmental Hazards
2.4 Probability of Harm 26
3.0 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY 31
3.1 Generalized Implications of National 31
Demographic Trends
3.2 Generalized Implications of Regional 35
Demographic Trends
4.0 ENVIRONMENTAL DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS 43
4.1 Air Pollution: An Example of Environmental 44
Demographic Analysis
4.2 Probability of Harm from Air Pollutant Hazards 59
4.3 Conclusion 69
APPENDIX DATA ON POPULATION TRENDS 71
REFERENCES 119
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Number Page
1 Interactions Among Functional Societal 20
Variables and Environmental Jeopardy
2 Census Divisions of the United States 36
3 National Trends in Net Emissions of Major 52
Air Pollutants by Source, 1975 and 2000
4 Federal Regions of the United States 53
A-l Census Regions of the United States 78
VI
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LIST OF TABLES
Table Number Page
1 Selected Studies of Health Effects of 46
Major Air Pollutants
2 Regional Trends in Major Air Pollution 54
Emissions
3 Trends in Net Emissions of Major Air 55
Pollutants for the Nation and Selected
Areas
4 Major Assumptions Affecting Projections of 56
Future Levels and Distribution of Air
Pollutant Emissions
5 Trends in Air Pollution and Population in 60
the West Central Florida Air Quality Control
Region
6 Indices of Air Pollution Inhalation in the 62
West Central Florida AQCR for the Year 2000
7 Air Pollution Projections, Salt Lake 66
County, Utah
8 Estimates of Mortality Due to Particulate 68
Emissions, Salt Lake County, Utah
A-l U.S. Population Growth Rate 72
A-2 Components of U.S. Population Growth 73
A-3 Age Composition of the U.S. Population 75
A-4 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates 76
A-5 U.S. Employment by Occupation and Sex 77
A-6 Regional Migration for the U.S. Population 79
A-7 Regional Population and Rate of Growth 80
A-8 U.S. Population by Metropolitan and Non- 82
metropolitan Areas
VII
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LIST OF TABLES
(Continued)
Table Number Pa§e
A-9 Population and Growth by Decade: South 83
Atlantic Division
A-10 Components of Population Change by Decade: 85
South Atlantic Division
A-ll Projections of Age Composition of Population 87
by Decade: South Atlantic Division
A-12 South Atlantic Division Population by 89
Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas
A-13 Population, Labor Force and Participation 91
Rate by Sex: South Atlantic Division
A-14 Occupation of Employed Persons: South 92
Atlantic Division
A-15 Industry of Employed Persons: South 94
Atlantic Division
A-16 Population and Growth by Decade: Mountain 96
Division
A-17 Components of Population Change by Decade: 98
Mountain Division
A-18 Projections of Age Composition of Population 100
by Decade: Mountain Division
A-19 Mountain Division Population by Metropolitan 102
and Nonmetropolitan Areas
A-20 Population, Labor Force and Participation 104
Rate by Sex: Mountain Division
A-21 Occupation of Employed Persons: Mountain 105
Division
A-22 Industry of Employed Persons: Mountain 107
Division
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LIST OF TABLES
(Concluded)
Table Number Page
A-23 Population and Growth by Decade: Middle 108
Atlantic Division
A-24 Components of Population Change by Decade: 110
Middle Atlantic Division
A-25 Projections of Age Composition of Population 112
by Decade: Middle Atlantic Division
A-26 Middle Atlantic Division Population by 113
Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas
A-27 Population, Labor Force and Participation 114
Rate by Sex: Middle Atlantic Division
A-28 Occupation of Employed Persons: Middle 116
Atlantic Division
A-29 Industry of Employed Persons: Middle 117
Atlantic Division
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
For many societies, cultural change has relied on complex
technology that in turn has resulted in widespread discharges of
harmful materials. To protect society, government has taken on a
regulatory role to control these discharges. Today's environmental
regulations are egalitarian in philosophy and application, for the
most part setting de minimus standards at the national or state
level.
Such a regulatory philosophy implies that different areas of the
country have a commonality of needs, despite the fact that different
geographic areas can have varied populations with different needs.
It can be argued that such differences need not be considered in the
regulatory arena or that it would be too costly and confusing to
consider them. However, this paper presents a case for investigating
a new approach to environmental regulation, based on the needs of
different geographic areas. Further, it asserts that future environ-
mental regulations should be fine-tuned to account for regional dif-
ferences in population attributes (such as greater numbers of elderly
in retirement in Florida), in human activities (such as the potential
for occupational contact with dangerous substances in industrial
sectors) or in regional social values.
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Environmental Jeopardy
Man, like the rest of the biological world, is subject to the
laws of nature and must respond to changes in his environment. Mod-
ern man has responded to his environment in a manner unique in the
animal kingdom. He has developed the technological means to control
his environment in order to temporarily halt the natural process of
environmental change to a greater extent than any other animal spe-
cies. The protection from the vicissitudes of the environment
afforded modern man by his technology has brought with it a proba-
bility of harm from the effluvia of that technology—a probability,
or jeopardy, that has become more pervasive as technology has
increased in complexity.
The effect of environmental pollution on human health is a
function of contact with environmental hazards and of individual and
population attributes. One can only be affected by a harmful agent
such as an environmental pollutant if one comes in contact with it
and is vulnerable to it. Vulnerability involves physiological con-
ditions that predispose an individual to harm. These physiological
conditions are often directly related to age, sex, genetic variables
and personal habits (such as smoking or drinking). An individual's
tendency to come in contact with a harmful agent in turn is related
to location (with respect to the distribution of the agent of harm)
and occupation. For a group, probability of harm is related to the
number of persons and their collective contacts and vulnerabilities.
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The perception of an "acceptable" probability of harm is influenced
by past experience, beliefs, attitudes and values. Moreover, an
individual is likely to accept a higher probability of harm if
contact with a harmful agent is voluntary rather than involuntary.
Demographic Trends and Environmental Jeopardy
Changing population patterns in the United States may bring with
them important changes in pollution levels, frequency of contact with
pollutants, vulnerability and probability of harm. For the nation as
a whole, future trends in employment and residence suggest that peo-
ple will be working and living in environments and localities in
which they will endure less frequent contact with hazards and lower
pollution levels than they do today. Workers are choosing relatively
safe occupations and the population is shifting from congested north-
eastern cities to the less polluted South and West. There is no way
of knowing how long these trends will continue, but the authors
assume they will extend at least to the year 2000. At the same time,
however, projected trends in average population age suggest the like-
lihood of increasing vulnerability to harm from some pollutants since
the national population is expected, on the average, to grow older.
The overall result of general population trends may be a reduced
probability of harm for the average individual in the United States,
but an increased number of persons succumbing to the effects of
pollutants—both because of absolute population growth and increasing
vulnerability.
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Future trends indicate a growing disparity in the demographic
makeup of different regions. This disparity will affect the relative
vulnerability and number of persons in contact with hazards in dif-
ferent regions. Therefore, some regional populations may face a
greater risk of harm from environmental hazards than others.
Three census divisions are compared to demonstrate different
projections of future demographic patterns. In the South Atlantic
Census Division, the national aging trend is exacerbated by continued
migration of retirees to southern states. The average age, and thus
the vulnerability, of this growing population is increasing. This,
coupled with the rising pollution levels likely to accompany popula-
tion growth, will add up to a greater probability of harm in the
South Atlantic Division. The metropolitan areas of the South
Atlantic division are maintaining their proportionate share of the
population, with larger numbers of persons coming in contact with
increasing pollution and consequent environmental hazards associated
with urban and industrialized areas.
The Mountain Census Division is composed of a population that is
increasing in average age at a slower rate than in the South Atlantic
division. The regional population tends to be less urban than the
country as a whole, and is expected to experience an increase in both
male and female labor force participation rates. For the Mountain
division, probability of harm from environmental pollutants seems to
be increasing and is likely to get worse, especially as energy
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resources are developed, spurring the migration of energy-
intensive industry to the region, and as pollution and population
size increase in growing urban and industrial areas.
With an increasing average age, migration from metropolitan
areas and a shift in employment toward non-manufacturing industries,
environmental and occupational risks appear to be declining in the
Middle Atlantic Census Division. People—especially the elderly—are
moving out of the division, which should reduce vulnerability to
environmental hazards in the Middle Atlantic division. As in the
nation as a whole, workers remaining in the region will be in less
jeopardy due to safer work environments, advances in pollution
control measures and improved medical care that will benefit their
generation more than their older predecessors.
Environmental Demographic Analysis
To illustrate the relationship between population change and
change in environmental and occupational jeopardy, the probability of
harm associated with projected trends in air emissions is analyzed.
The major air pollutants associated with our industrial-metropolitan
mode of life have repeatedly been shown to correlate with various
adverse health effects. The potential cost to the nation in terms of
mortality and morbidity as a result of air pollution can be consider-
able. Crocker et al. (1979) estimated that a 60 percent reduction in
pollution would result in health benefits equal to $59.1 billion in
1978 dollars.
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Assuming full compliance with existing regulations, only emis-
sions of the oxides of sulfur and nitrogen are expected to surpass
national 1975 levels by 2000. By the end of the century, ambient
levels of particulates and hydrocarbons are expected to rise toward
1975 levels as economic growth counteracts improvements realized in
the 1980s through compliance with regulatory requirements. The
carbon monoxide level is expected to decline steadily throughout the
period. Similar trends in air emissions are anticipated in the
Southeast Federal Region. In general, projections of air emissions
for the Middle Atlantic Federal Region indicate a trend of relatively
more improvement than for the nation as a whole; while worsening
conditions are projected for the Mountain Federal Region. However,
despite these trends, overall amounts of net emissions will still be
greater in the Middle Atlantic region than in the Mountain region by
the year 2000.
The potential for human contact with certain pollutants in the
West Central Florida Air Quality Control Region (AQCR) for the year
2000 was estimated to demonstrate the use of a simple model based on
projected proportional changes in the area population (total popu-
lation and subpopulations) and in net emissions for the five major
pollutants from 1975 to 2000. The analysis is offered merely as an
illustration and the reader is cautioned that an absence of adequate
data prevented this model from being precise. The elderly subpopu-
lation was singled out for analysis here, although other groups could
be analyzed in the same fashion.
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In this AQCR, the subpopulation of persons age 65 and over is
expected to more than double between 1975 and 2000. This much larger
group of vulnerable elderly persons will face increased emissions of
three air pollutants: particulates and oxides of nitrogen and sul-
fur. Population growth and higher pollution levels are expected to
create a threefold increase in probability of harm from these three
pollutants for the elderly between 1975 and 2000.
For Salt Lake County, Utah, a second type of analysis was per-
formed based on elasticities relating increases in mortality to
increases in total particulate emissions. Again, a lack of adequate
data prevented the analysis from being precise. Assuming an elastic-
ity of 0.09 for total mortality for increases in particulate air
emissions, as many as 200 deaths in Salt Lake County in 1995 may be
attributable to a 46 percent increase in particulate emissions in
that year over 1975 levels.
In summary, considering the environment and demographic factors
in a kind of analysis that this paper calls "environmental demogra-
phy" can be valuable to the regulatory arena. It can indicate where
the greatest benefit in terms of protecting human health and welfare
can be achieved. Of course, at this time environmental demography is
limited. We do not fully understand what segments of the population
would suffer the greatest harm from many pollutants. In addition, we
can't completely grasp the relationship between some pollutants and
the health of the general population, let alone that of specific
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subpopulations in certain geographic areas. However, environmental
demographic analyses can give us some indication of where the
greatest potential for detriment to health will be in the future.
Conclusions and Recommendations
A study of this type is hampered by a lack of appropriate dem-
ographic data. Subpopulation projections are not disaggregated to
the AQCR or county level; there is no comprehensive theoretical or
empirical basis for much of the analysis (e.g., specific coefficients
of elasticity or coefficients of vulnerability for subpopulations and
various pollutants); and there are no adequate mechanisms to utilize
the results of such analyses in the development and implementation of
environmental protection policies.
Future work to advance the state of the art should include:
o Devising methods to measure regional values, attitudes and
priorities related to technology's hazards;
o Devising methods to determine the comparative priorities for
different regions;
o Providing more detailed information on the etiology of envi-
ronmentally related diseases;
o Determining the quantitative relationships between concentra-
tion of environmental hazard and probability of harm for
various populations; and
o Determining the ability to set standards differentially,
based on geographic area and population (demographic)
characteristics.
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
As a technological animal, man is as much a product of his tech-
nology as his technology is a product of him. Dependence on technol-
ogy began when our ancestors first shaped a piece of flint into a
sharp spearhead to kill game. However, this first spearhead was,
both literally and figuratively, two-edged. It could injure one of
our ancestors, either accidently or intentionally, just as easily as
it could be used to bring down game. Thus, with the advent of tech-
nology was born the potential for harm to human populations from
other than natural causes.
Since the stone age, human evolution has been primarily a phe-
nomenon of cultural rather than biological change. For many soci-
eties, this cultural change has resulted in reliance on an increas-
ingly complex and pervasive technology. With this technology has
come an increasingly complex and pervasive potential for man-made
environmental harm to human populations. Indeed, in many cases, this
potential harm is global in scope. For example, changes in atmo-
spheric carbon dioxide levels from fossil fuel combustion hold the
potential for climatic changes (Otway et al. 1975).
The potential for indirect harm (as from noxious or toxic chemi-
cals in the air, water or soil) or direct harm (as from occupational
handling of dangerous chemicals) resulting from technological devel-
opments has become so pervasive in recent decades that governments
have increasingly adopted a regulatory role in order to control
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proliferation of potentially harmful side effects of technology. In
the United States, this regulatory role culminated in passage of the
National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) (PL 91-190) and the
formation of the Environmental Protection Agency in 1970.
Current U.S. environmental regulations can be considered the
first-generation attempt to regulate potential harm to society from
the by-products of its technology. These regulations sometimes allow
for regional variations, as is the case with State Implementation
Plans, governing industrial air emissions. However, the authors
believe that standards and regulations are often based on the implied
assumption that society is uniform in its tolerance to environmental
harm, both psychologically (values and perceptions) and physiologi-
cally (individual biological tolerances).
The thesis of this paper is that a second generation of environ-
mental legislation and regulations should consider the U.S. popula-
tion as heterogeneous. Demographic characteristics, such as age
distribution, employment, income and education, not only differ in
different regions of the country, but also undergo change with time.
For example, the average age of the U.S. population is increasing and
the regional distribution patterns of the elderly are changing with
the migration of retired persons to Sunbelt states such as Florida
A detailed review of the regulatory role of government is pre-
sented in Chapter 3 of Environmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency 1980).
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and Arizona. Data indicate that the elderly are more vulnerable to
certain pollutants than the population as a whole (Calabrese 1978).
In addition to demographic factors, environmental legislation and
regulations should consider regional variations in values and
perceptions that influence tolerances to potential environmental
harm.
It can be argued that demographic variables and attitudes should
not be considered in the regulatory arena. One might ask why the
healthy, youthful residents of one area might merit less protection
from pollutants than the older, more vulnerable residents of another.
One might also say that considering such factors would be too costly
and confusing. Without attempting to dispute such arguments, this
paper presents a case for investigating a new approach to regulation
based on such considerations.
1.1 A New Approach
1.1.1 Meeting the Challenge
The challenges facing those responsible for ensuring the health
and welfare of members of our technological society are numerous and
varied. A tool that can be used to meet the challenge is the study
of the relationships between societal characteristics and the
probability of harm from technology's effluvia—a study or system of
thought that this paper terms "environmental demography."
These preliminary remarks outline potential uses for data that
might be provided by environmental demography now and in the future.
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Next, this paper explores the current limits of the environmental
demographic approach before presenting suggestions to correct these
deficiencies.
The discoveries of this exploration are too partial and general
to be more than suggestive. However, the study illustrates the
potential utility of environmental demography, and provides direc-
tions for further work in the field.
1.1.2 Potential Uses of Environmental Demographic Data
In general, environmental demographic data can be used to help
inform and direct the processes of developing and implementing envi-
ronmental protection policies so as to devise regulatory strategies
specifically tuned to the needs of those they are supposed to pro-
tect. The environmental implications of changes in occupation, loca-
tion, age and other population variables provide a more complete and
precise understanding of environmental protection problems than would
be available without such considerations. This understanding affords
the potential for better use of the nation's limited resources—
ensuring that environmental regulations work toward the allocation of
resources with the least environmental degradation.
The limited analysis presented in this paper shows how our per-
spective on the environment can be refined when pollution and pop-
ulation data are combined. Considered in isolation, expected trends
in some air pollution levels may be interpreted as instances of prog-
ress in environmental protection, and they do represent limited
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improvements. However, if concurrent demographic changes suggested a
greater probability of adverse health effects despite these reduced
pollution levels, one real limit of the process would be laid bare.
Consideration of demographic changes would permit discovery of a popu-
lation's specific protection needs. Actions can then be proposed and
taken to provide adequate protection, whether through specialized
pollution abatement, health delivery systems, regulations or some
other approach to a specific problem.
A refined perspective on protection problems and opportunities
would permit better research and development strategies, ensuring the
availability of all elements needed to determine regulatory strate-
gies. And, in response to updated estimates and projections of popu-
lation variables (regularly provided by the Bureau of the Census),
these strategies can be adjusted as feasible to keep them responsive
to the population's changing needs.
An important potential use of environmental demographic data is
its incorporation in public information programs. It can be argued
that the public has a right to hear and a duty to heed information
that clearly portrays a potential source of harm associated with a
technological society.
It might seem that such information would be widely ignored.
Many individuals and institutions in our society are driven by eco-
nomic incentives as much as by any other motive. Moreover, many
Americans needlessly subject themselves to harm, as evidenced by
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those who smoke cigarettes. However, many also quit smoking, demon-
strating a desire to avoid harm, and many more could be expected to
avoid environmental hazards if they were alerted to potential health
threats. The ultimate success of attempts to avoid or reduce hazards
would depend in part upon effective communication of a complete pic-
ture of the projected probability of harm, the realistic alterna-
tives, and associated costs and benefits.
1.1.3 Limitations to the Study and Use of Environmental
Demography
At the present time there appear to be some real limits to the
generation and utilization of environmental demographic data. Some
of these limits may be readily corrected, but eradicating others
could require substantial investments of time and resources.
There are three kinds of limits:
(1) Much of the demographic data needed for the desired analy-
ses is not readily available;
(2) The environmental demographic approach lacks a comprehen-
sive and coherent theoretical or empirical basis for much
of the desired analysis; and
(3) It is unclear whether adequate institutional mechanisms are
actually or potentially operative for utilizing the results
of such analyses in the development and implementation of
environmental protection policies, plans, programs and
projects.
If the potential benefits of this environmental demographic approach
are to be properly realized, these problems must be better understood
and their solutions must be undertaken.
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This limited analysis deals with the first two of these problems
most directly and the third to a lesser extent. The third problem of
potentially inadequate institutional mechanisms for utilizing
detailed data, while germane to this paper, is only raised as a philo-
sophical issue. Section 2 points out that the current-generation
environmental regulatory milieu is essentially an egalitarian one,
attempting to protect all equally, irrespective of individual values,
wishes, health or needs. A vital change in regulatory philosophy
that considers these values, wishes and needs at a regional level is
necessary to the optimal use of this approach.
The problems of inadequate data and lack of a basic theoretical
framework are likely to be formidable ones. Inasmuch as the environ-
mental demographic approach attempts to differentially relate popula-
tion attributes and both environmental and occupational hazards, the
task of formulating the necessary theoretical framework and empirical
data must call upon many areas of the social, health and environmen-
tal sciences.
Limited demographic data were a major source of difficulty in
this analysis, as is evident in Section 4. Much of the data needed
to project demographic variables was not readily available for polit-
ical-geographic units below the state level. Consequently, state
level data were used in place of more precise numbers needed for the
West Central Florida Air Quality Control Region (AQCR). For the
present purpose of illustration, this substitution is little more
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than an annoyance, but, when definitive results are needed, such
substitutions may not be acceptable.
1.1.4 Suggestions for Improving Environmental Demographic Study
Environmental demography incorporates population variables such
as location, occupation, age distribution and attitudes, along with
environmental variables such as pollutant releases to determine the
probability of harm for subpopulations in various regions of the
country. Many of the corrective measures one might recommend for
making environmental demography a useful tool in environmental pro-
tection processes have been introduced in the preceding discussion of
current limits, including the need for disaggregated demographic
trends.
The limited analysis presented here demonstrates that the
approach has sufficient potential to warrant further exploration and
development. But, the next step to be taken is to better define the
near-term, mid-term and long-term implications within agencies
responsible for environmental protection. Therefore, this report
recommends that such an exploration be undertaken before abandoning
or advancing the approach introduced here. If this exploration
reveals a sufficient need for and capacity to use knowledge that
could be obtained from environmental demography, then future work
should be undertaken to advance the state of the art, including:
o Devising methods to measure regional values, attitudes and
priorities related to technology's hazards;
o Devising methods to determine the comparative priorities for
different regions;
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o Providing more detailed information on the etiology of envi-
ronmentally-related diseases;
o Determining the quantitative relationships between concentra-
tion of environmental hazard and probability of harm for
various demographic populations; and
o Determining the ability to set standards differentially,
based on geographic area and population (demographic)
characteristics.
1.2 Outlook on Jeopardy
The potential for environmental and occupational harm is prob-
ably on the decline in the United States since pollution control
measures are lowering emissions, the population is shifting from
congested northeastern cities to the less polluted South and West,
and workers are turning to less dangerous occupations. There is no
way of knowing how long these trends will continue, but the authors
believe they will extend at least to the year 2000. At the same
time, however, the authors also believe acceptance of harm also
appears to be declining as society's expectations for safety continue
to outrun technology's achievements. Declining acceptance will be a
primary force contributing to efforts to reduce man's jeopardy, or
probability of harm. Of course, such efforts would also require a
better understanding of the causes, conditions and consequences of
environmental and occupational hazards.
This exploratory study represents a preliminary step toward that
understanding. In a consideration of man-made hazards, the simple
fact that the problem begins and ends with people is an essential
point of departure for further consideration. This study attempts
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to shed some light on this facet of man's jeopardy through environ-
mental demography.
Individual behavior, denoted by some occupation and location
changes, may be viewed as an attempt at self preservation. When
presented with an opportunity, some people act to reduce their expo-
sure to hazards or other undesirable conditions. This is arguable,
as evidenced by population growth in California where migrants seem
undaunted by the multiple threats of earthquakes, mudslides, brush
fires and flooding. Nonetheless, some persons relocate to the sub-
urbs, retire early from dangerous jobs or move to the Sunbelt to
avoid hazards. Without appropriate environmental regulation of tech-
nology, however, hazards will follow population shifts wherever they
go. The suburbs and the Sunbelt could well become the places to
avoid in the future.
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2.0 ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY
2.1 Introduction
Man evolves and develops in response to the selective pressures
of his environment, whether natural or man-made. In contemporary
nations such as the United States where technology is a major factor
driving development, people respond to the selective pressures caused
by technology and its by-products as much as, if not more than, they
do to selective pressures of nature. Nevertheless, the basic prin-
ciple of natural selection remains operant: those individuals less
adapted to their environment at any given time are less likely to
survive. In essence, their life expectancy is reduced.
It is important to emphasize that the environment acts at the
individual level. Individuals at a selective disadvantage face a
reduced life expectancy. The effect of the environment on a popula-
tion, then, is a function of the proportion of that population at a
selective disadvantage or, conversely, at a selective advantage.
When speaking of humans and potential harm from environmental haz-
ards, one must realize that the entire population is usually at a
selective disadvantage, although some individuals are more likely to
be affected by a given environmental factor or pollutant due to
inherent attributes such as age or sex, or due to external activities
such as an occupation that involves inhaling cotton dust or handling
dangerous chemicals.
Rather than discussing individuals being at a selective disad-
vantage with regard to environmental factors, one can consider them
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as being vulnerable to environmental pollution, realizing that for
most pollutants, individuals will display a tolerance range that
depends upon physiological and psychological factors. Besides
individual vulnerability, an important factor is contact with a given
hazard. The collective probability of harm for a population would
depend on the number of individuals as well as on their collective
vulnerability, and on the duration and intensity of their contact
with a given environmental hazard.
This section looks briefly at the concepts of both natural and
cultural (or technological) selection and the significance of these
concepts to the behavior of human populations in a technological
environment. After establishing that human populations are at the
selective mercy of an environment that they have often shaped with
their own technology, it goes on to discuss the characteristics of
populations that determine their collective vulnerability to environ-
mental pollution (e.g., growth rate, age distribution, geographic
distribution). Finally, it examines the concept of probability of
harm in terms of the way in which it is perceived and the ways in
which conflicting societal values may alter that perception.
2.2 Natural Selection and Cultural Evolution
Darwin (1859) first formulated a detailed concept of natural
selection as the primary mechanism by which organisms evolve.
Basically, natural selection occurs in the following way:
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o For any given species or population of organisms, more indi-
viduals are born into each generation than the environment
can support to reproduce the next generation. Individuals of
each generation display physical and physiological variabil-
ity due to genetic differences.
o Since the necessities of life are often in limited supply,
organisms must compete for food, shelter and space to mate
and raise young. This competition often takes subtle forms—
the pregnant female mammal that can nurture her developing
fetus more efficiently than her sisters is also likely to
produce stronger, more competitively successful offspring
for the next generation.
o The natural environment is hostile to most organisms.
Besides having to compete for resources in short supply,
organisms must outrun or outguess predators or otherwise
avoid natural extermination before they are able to
reproduce. Those individuals of a population or a species
best adapted to a particular habitat at a particular time
will be most likely to reproduce the next generation. They
will be selected by the forces of nature.
o Finally, environments change with time, altering the selec-
tive forces exerted on organisms, which results in changes in
the types of genetic variants that are most successful or
most adapted to the environment. Hence evolution occurs.
With some degree of daring in the Victorian era, Darwin (1871)
postulated that the process of natural selection applied to man as
well as to the rest of the biological world. The concept of natural
selection, particularly as it applied to man, sparked a raging intel-
lectual debate during the latter part of the nineteenth century and
early twentieth century. Out of this debate emerged several concepts
important to our understanding of how societies have developed and
are still evolving. Darwin's work gave impetus to the idea that
human societies and cultures interact with the environment just as
individuals do and, if these cultures and societies interact with the
environment, they too may be at its selective mercy.
13
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Some thinkers extended the original concept of natural selection
to the idea that human cultures are direct products of the environ-
ment in which they have evolved. In its most rigid form, environ-
mental determinism, this concept holds that there is a direct and
deterministic relationship between environment and culture. While
the deterministic view may be too narrow and simplistic, the fact
remains that cultures have evolved within, and as part of the fabric
of their environment. Cultures develop through adaptation to the
selective pressures of a changing environment.
If human culture interacts with the environment, what has become
of the interaction between the individual and the environment? It
can be argued that, while individuals do interact directly with their
environment, the technology upon which human culture is based
increasingly protects individuals from nature's harms. In highly
industrialized societies, individuals are largely shielded from the
vicissitudes of their environment by various technological adapta-
tions. The probability of harm from parasites is reduced by inno-
vations such as insecticides to control mosquitoes and tsetse flies.
Increased crop yields through genetic engineering, monoculture and
mechanized farming have increased the number of persons who can be
fed from available arable land. Irrigation has increased the amount
of land available for agricultural use. Modern medicine has not only
increased human life spans, but it also has sustained and kept both
biologically and socially productive many individuals who would
otherwise have perished due to natural selective forces.
14
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The benefits of modern technology have been achieved with nega-
tive effects that are increasingly apparent. Throughout most of
man's cultural development, technology's effects (both direct and
indirect) have generally displayed a direct relationship between the
technology itself and consequent human harm. Within the last cen-
tury, however, technology has become so complex and pervasive that it
is no longer possible to see direct causal links between single tech-
nologies or groups of technologies and specific environmental harms.
The presence, for instance, of organic carcinogens in the air and
water results from a plethora of technological activities rather than
one technology or family of technologies. In essence, the environ-
ment has been altered as a result of the activities of technology—
changes in types and levels of noise, changes in the chemistry of air
and water, artificial substances in food, changed life-styles, and
improved methods for protection from disease and injury.
The pervasiveness of technology, its undesirable side products
and the geographic extent of resultant problems have increasingly led
government to assume a regulatory role to protect health and welfare.
The Federal role has evolved since environmental problems transcend
state and regional boundaries (as in air quality degradation that
often cuts across state lines, particularly in urban and industrial-
ized areas), are related to interstate commerce (as in the case of
aircraft emissions), or are covered under long-standing Federal
15
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legislation such as the Rivers and Harbors Act of 1899. Some Federal
legislation sets minimum standards, while delegating regulatory
authority to the states. Under the Clean Water Act of 1977 (PL
95-217), point source discharges are subject to both Federal and
state regulations. However, states with qualified programs can take
over the permit program of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimina-
tion System (NPDES). Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (PL
91-604), the Environmental Protection Agency was charged with estab-
lishing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), although
states were left the prerogative of establishing stricter standards
(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980).
The current generation of regulatory enactments and amendments
has problems such as defining risk and quantifying its "acceptable"
levels (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980). Environmental
regulations often present conflicts among energy, economic and envi-
ronmental imperatives. Frequently conflicting with industry's aims,
they can also be complex and lead to increased costs. For example,
the expense of environmental control technology must be borne by
industry. This expense, added to rising costs for energy, taxes,
labor and land, may make it impossible for businesses to realize
sufficient profit to continue. In the older industrialized portions
of the country, businesses requiring major reconstruction to meet
environmental regulations may find it more profitable to relocate to
the Sunbelt where costs are lower for labor, taxes and energy, and
16
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where environmental control requirements may be less stringent. Such
relocations would have two results. The local economy losing the
industry would suffer economic losses, including the loss of jobs,
and the area gaining the industry would experience economic gains.
The area losing the industry would experience less pollution while
the area gaining the industry would experience more.
In most instances, the current environmental regulatory frame-
work has grown by a process of accretion, with regulations promul-
gated and amended as need was perceived either as a result of prolif-
eration of new technology, industrial development of a new region, or
real or apparent causal relationships between technology and environ-
mental hazards.
This development of environmental regulation by specific
responses to specific perceived problems has resulted in a com-
plexity in which the regulatory measures themselves may have created
environmental or other problems. Hence, the use of catalytic con-
verters on new model automobiles to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions
results in the atmospheric formation of sulfuric acid mist. Blamed
for a variety of adverse effects, this pollutant reacts with lime-
stone in buildings to form gypsum, which erodes easily. It also
damages crops and affects the human respiratory system (The MITRE
Corporation 1980).
Similarly, the use of unleaded gasoline to reduce lead emissions
requires that refineries use more energy to produce a fuel with a
17
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sufficient octane rating. Logically, this increased energy use would
contribute to the nation's energy problem, adding to the need for
imported crude oil.
In an attempt to eliminate or reduce the complexity of environ-
mental regulations while making them more appropriate or responsive
to emerging needs, a second-generation regulatory phase is in order.
This second-generation process could begin with a comprehensive
review of current legislation and regulations to identify and elimi-
nate unnecessary overlap and actual or potential conflicts. Of
particular importance is the identification of areas where conflict-
ing national goals have led to conflicting environmental legislation
so that goals can be prioritized. In many cases, different regions
of the country may have different economic and/or environmental
goals, justifying different regulatory emphases. In addition, as a
result of varied demographic characteristics and values, "acceptable"
levels of a given environmental hazard may vary in different regions
of the country.
The remaining two subsections of this section discuss relation-
ships between human activity, attitudes and attributes, along with
consequent vulnerabilities to environmental hazards and the influ-
ence of individual and collective perceptions on responses to poten-
tial environmental hazards.
18
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2.3 Relationships of Activity, Attitudes and Attributes with
Environmental Hazards
Human social systems involve a series of interactions among
three functional variables: activities, attitudes and attributes.
These functional variables in turn interact with the environment and
determine individual and collective responses to the environment and
its hazards at any given time. Figure 1 depicts the interactions
among these functional variables and the environment. The variables
and their significance are discussed below, followed by a more
extensive discussion of specific population attributes and their role
in interactions between society and the environment.
2.3.1 Functional Societal Variables
One's relationship with the environment is a function of where
and how one works, lives and plays (activities); of one's values and
goals (attitudes); and of attributes such as age, sex and education
that determine one's role in society. Individuals and groups inter-
act with the environment while producing and consuming both goods and
services. These interactions can result in pollution. Contact with
this pollution or with other environmental hazards poses a potential
for harm from these hazards. The probability of harm for individuals
is a result of contact with the hazards of the environment and of
vulnerability to the harm represented by the hazards. Vulnerability
and the duration and degree of contact with a pollutant will vary,
depending on one's life-style and activities as well as demographic
factors such as age, sex and education. For example, those who work
19
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Population Attributes
Determining Vulnerability
• Age
• Sex
• Genetics
Location
Preexisting Disease
Other
Environmental
Hazard
• Air Pollutants
• Water
Pollutants
• Noise"
» Radiation
Contact
with
Hazard
Jeopardy
Human
Activity
• Occupation
• Recreation
• Habits
• Other
Intervening
Perceptions
i
Consequent
Probability of Harm
Attitudes
Values
Desires
Education
Other
T
Perception of
Jeopardy
FIGURE 1
INTERACTIONS AMONG FUNCTIONAL SOCIETAL VARIABLES
AND ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY
20
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with asbestos or use certain hair dryers run a greater risk of harm
from asbestos than others who avoid asbestos at work and at home.
Moreover, smokers who inhale asbestos fibers are more vulnerable to
lung damage from asbestos than are nonsmokers.
The activities of members of a population and population attri-
butes (demographic factors) provide indicators of the population's
tendency to come in contact with hazards and its vulnerability.
Furthermore, by looking at changes in demographic variables, it is
possible to estimate changes in contact with hazards and in the
probability of harm for various populations or subpopulations.
Section 4 demonstrates a methodology for determining quantitatively
how vulnerability and the collective probability of harm change with
change in population patterns.
In addition to activities and attributes, the attitudes or
values of a society; culture or population can play a strong role in
determining an "acceptable" probability of harm. For example, some
parts of the country such as northern New England or the Rocky
Mountains have come to represent a last wilderness or semi-wild
frontier in terms of living close to nature without the trappings of
high technology. As a result of this perception, many individuals
have opted for life in a high quality "clean" environment rather than
for one in more polluted surroundings with greater opportunity for
economic gain. These individuals will tend to accept a lower proba-
bility of harm from environmental hazards than will individuals who
21
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have chosen to remain in less pristine areas for economic reasons.
By the same token, individuals in a highly industrialized sector of
the country, when faced with a choice between a higher probability of
harm or a lower employment potential, will probably opt for accepting
the higher probability of harm.
Demographic factors, or population attributes, such as popula-
tion size and density, spatial distribution, and social and economic
composition, help to determine the productive and consumptive activ-
ities of populations as well as many of their values or attitudes.
For example, a large and crowded population, living in an urban cen-
ter, working at industrial jobs and playing as spectators of stadium
sports and television programs, will come in contact with different
levels and kinds of pollutants than will a small and sparse popula-
tion, living in a small town, working at commercial jobs and playing
as participants of field and stream sports. Moreover, if one of
these two hypothetical populations, on the average, is considerably
older or smokes and drinks considerably more than the other, its
vulnerability to some kinds of harm may be greater.
Vulnerability involves physiological and psychological condi-
tions that predispose an individual to harm and, as such, it is
related to demographic and socioeconomic variables that influence
those conditions. In the case of physiological conditions, age, sex,
genetic variables and personal habits are the most prevalent factors
influencing vulnerability. Smoking and drinking are the personal
22
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habits most often pointed to as having an influence on vulnerability,
while education, income and marital status have been used as indica-
tors of general health care and resultant condition of health. The
present state of knowledge about the relationships between population
attributes and vulnerability to environmental harm is not especially
well developed. Statistical associations of morbidity and mortality
with conditions of environmental degradation have been documented;
however, etiological relationships are not completely understood.
The following subsection summarizes some of what is currently known
about the relationships between population attributes and potential
vulnerability to environmental harm.
2.3.2 Population Variables and Vulnerability
Vulnerability to disease, including that caused or prompted by
environmental pollution, tends to vary with population attributes or
variables (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980). These variables are indica-
tors of conditions that predispose individuals to disease or of a
higher probability of existing disease that may be aggravated by con-
tact with environmental pollution. Research efforts are beginning to
clarify the relationships between population attributes and vulnera-
bility.
2.3.2.1 Age. The incidence and prevalence of heart disease,
lung disease and cancer have all been shown to increase with advanced
age (Miller 1976). Correlation between age and disease prevalence
does not necessarily imply a direct one-to-one causal relationship,
23
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since increasing age results in increased contact with occupational
and environmental agents of harm and to psychologically stressful
situations. However, there is also physiological change associated
with the aging process and, in those cases where increased contact
with harmful agents is not a factor and age is directly associated
with vulnerability, pollution may cause or promote disease in older
individuals. In those cases where the age-disease relationship is a
function of past contact with pollution, continued or renewed contact
may cause, promote or aggravate the disease.
Developmental stages or life cycle phases are related to age in
that these stages are chronological phenomena. In some instances,
specific stages are associated with predisposition to certain pollu-
tion or environmentally related diseases. The prenatal state, for
instance, is associated with greater vulnerability to teratogenic
and/or carcinogenic effects of chemical agents that can pass through
the placental barrier. Most teratogenic effects are induced during
the first three months of development when the fetus is undergoing
organ formation (National Academy of Sciences 1975). Physiological
changes associated with puberty tend to correlate with increased vul-
nerability to cancers and with increased sensitivity to nitrogen
oxides (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980).
2.3.2.2 Sex. Differences in vulnerability due to sex may be a
result of one or more of many aspects of sexual differences, includ-
ing: variations in personal habits such as drinking or smoking,
24
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differences in occupational exposure and internal biochemical differ-
ences as a result of a different hormone balance. Representing a
larger share of those who work directly with dangerous chemicals,
males could logically be expected to come in contact with such occu-
pational hazards more frequently than females. For females, estrogen
may influence the development of breast, ovarian, and uterine cancer,
while, on the other hand, its presence may raise an individual's tol-
erance level for certain carcinogens (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980). In
the past, males have contracted lung cancer more frequently than
females because of a greater tendency to smoke cigarettes, although
females have been closing this gap.
2.3.2.3 Genetic Factors. High levels of vulnerability to var-
ious diseases have been demonstrated to correlate with genetic inher-
itance. However, in studies based on family groups, common disease
vulnerability may be due to inherited factors, a common contact with
an environmental harm, or both. Nevertheless, inheritance of disease
vulnerability has been established, although the specific interaction
of environmental factors is not usually known (Anderson 1975, Hushon
and Ghovanlou 1980). A number of precancerous and cancerous condi-
tions have been shown to be related to heredity (Lynch and Kaplan
1974). In addition to cancer, diseases such as diabetes mellitus,
anemias, allergies and asthmas to which one is genetically predis-
posed may also result in a predisposition to the effects of chemical
pollutants (Hushon and Ghovanlou 1980).
25
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2.3.2.4 Personal Habits. Dietary patterns and the use of
tobacco, drugs and alcohol are personal habits that tend to be asso-
ciated with vulnerability to disease and to the effects of environ-
mental pollutants. Tobacco smoking has been shown to be related to
lung cancer, chronic bronchitis, emphysema and coronary heart disease
(Hammond 1975). There is also a synergistic relationship between
smoking and inhaling asbestos and possibly other airborne particles
and fibers. Alcohol consumption appears to be related to cancers of
the stomach, liver and rectum, and acts synergistically with smoking
to promote or cause cancers of the larynx, oropharynx, oral cavity
and esophagus. In addition, alcohol consumption may increase vulner-
ability to organic solvent poisoning and may contribute to nutri-
tional deficiency which in turn may increase the risk of environ-
mentally related cancers.
2.4 Probability of Harm
Man's perception of the probability that he will be harmed plays
a vital role in determining what may be an acceptable level of an
environmental hazard. The environmental regulatory milieu discussed
earlier represents an institutionalized system to control the prob-
ability of harm for the populace. Implicit in this body of regula-
tions is the assumption that the government has decided on acceptable
level for certain pollutants. However, regulations are established
through a complex process involving judgments about the relative
benefits and costs of various innovations and activities of
26
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technology—costs in terms of environmental hazards and benefits in
terms of economics, convenience and so forth, with both being mea-
sured ultimately in terms of the quality of life.
This paper attempts to provide both a theoretical framework and
a methodological basis for the promulgation of a second-generation
body of environmental legislation that fine-tunes our current regula-
tory apparatus to take into account the different needs, vulnerabil-
ities, tendencies to come in contact with pollutants and values of
people in different parts of the country in determining an acceptable
probability of harm.
2.4.1 Relationships Between Probability of Harm,
Vulnerability and Contact with a Harmful Agent
Probability of harm is a complex concept that attempts to cap-
ture an even more complex reality. The kinds of harms involved are
numerous and varied and not all are caused or promoted by technol-
ogy. The levels of harm that can befall a population can be acute or
chronic and range from minor problems to death.
One population may be willing to accept a higher probability of
harm than another. An important determining factor is whether con-
tact with a hazard is voluntary. For a given level of perceived
benefit, a greater probability of harm is likely to be accepted if
contact with a hazard is voluntary rather than involuntary. There
are numerous other considerations, including knowledge or ignorance
of a harmful agent.
27
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2.4.2 Probability of Harm: Perceptions and Acceptability
Human societies have faced a certain probability of harm from
environmental hazards since our first ancestor was consciously aware
of the potential dangers and benefits of his technology and his
environment. For much of man's evolution, he faced mostly natural
environmental harms—primarily earthquakes, storms, tidal waves and
diseases. The proliferation of technology brought with it new
sources of harm which have become increasingly prevalent and perva-
sive within the past century with increases in the role and complex-
ity of technology.
Individual and group perceptions will determine to a large
extent what will be permitted as an acceptable probability of harm.
Such perceptions depend on a variety of internal and external factors
such as age, sex, ethnic background, experience, frequency of contact
with a given substance or event, knowledge and availability of infor-
mation. Perceptions may conflict with reality (Velimirovic 1975).
An example of the differences in perception is given by Otway et al.
(1975) in a hypothetical comparison between an activity with an acci-
dent probability of 1 per year with 1 fatality per accident, and an
activity with 1 million fatalities per accident but an accident prob-
ability of 1 in 1 million years. Statistically, both situations have
the same probability of harm since they result on the average in one
fatality per year. However, due to various intervening factors
including level of occurrence, societal perceptions of the two situa-
tions would differ greatly.
28
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For the purposes of this study, some generalizations about prob-
ability of harm proposed by Velimirovic (1975) are germane. Man is
basically conservative and will try to avoid danger associated with
the new and unknown, yet will submit to danger to maintain the status
quo. When prestige is gained from technological advances, man is
willing to be placed in jeopardy to achieve social gratification.
Man's concern for an issue, and hence his perception of the probabil-
ity that he will be harmed, is a function of distance, time and fre-
quency. Finally, voluntary contact with a harmful agent is generally
tolerated more readily than if contact were involuntary, although the
existence of some level of control over the outcome of the involun-
tary tends to increase acceptance.
Overall, there is a paucity of knowledge regarding behavior
responses and attitudes toward probability of harm from environmental
hazards. Further research into the areas suggested by Velimirovic
(1975) would provide more knowledge from a behavioral viewpoint.
Much of what is currently known is reviewed by Rowe (1975), Slovic et
al. (1975) and Otway et al. (1975), as well as Velimirovic (1975).
29
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3.0 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL JEOPARDY
The general discussion of the relationships between probability
of harm, vulnerability and contact with a harmful agent presented in
the preceding section suggests that changing population patterns and
trends in the United States may result in important changes in pollu-
tion, contact, vulnerability and jeopardy. Demographic factors hav-
ing the clearest implications for environmental harm are occupation,
location and age.
This section examines demographic trends and their environmental
implications at the national level and for three regions of the coun-
try. Detailed population data presented in the Appendix serve as a
basis for the observations presented. The conclusions reached here
are based on recent trends and projections. The trends could change,
which would affect the validity of the conclusions. For example,
population projections for the South do not consider the recent
influx of Cuban refugees, who may be younger and heartier than the
retirees who have been flocking to the Sunbelt. For this reason, any
mechanism to utilize demographic data in the regulatory process
should allow for frequent updates with new projections.
3.1 Generalized Implications of National Demographic Trends
For the nation as a whole, the authors believe projected trends
in employment and residence suggest that people will work and live in
environments that now offer lower pollution levels than do the local-
ities from which shifts will occur. Projected trends in population
31
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age distribution, however, suggest the likelihood of a lower toler-
ance for certain pollutants since the national population is
expected, on the average, to grow older.* The resultant compound
implication appears to be a reduced probability of harm for the
population as a whole since many older retirees will tend to move to
Sunbelt states.** Despite their increased vulnerability, the
elderly will incur less exposure to environmental harm there since
lower emissions are projected.
National trends in employment suggest that the proportion of
workers engaged in potentially hazardous employment such as farm and
blue-collar jobs is decreasing.** This may be offset, however,
by an absolute increase in the size of the work force due to popula-
tion increases. Trends in residence parallel those for employment,
with people moving to regions with less potential hazard or to rural
or suburban localities where environmental hazards are less. The
relative proportion of persons living in the more polluted industria-
lized regions of the country such as the Northeast and the Midwest is
decreasing. The number residing in the more polluted metropolitan
areas is also decreasing as more people move to suburban and rural
areas. Finally, many of those escaping the polluted
*See Appendix, Table A-3.
**See Appendix, Table A-6.
***See Appendix, Table A-5.
****See Appendix, Table A-8.
32
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industrialized and urban areas represent the more vulnerable elderly
and young, as retired workers move to the Sunbelt and young dependent
children move to the suburbs.
The trend toward an older population carries with it a mixed but
mostly less favorable set of implications. On the one hand, fewer
women are having children and family size is decreasing, resulting in
a shrinking proportion of children under age 5 with resultant reduced
potential for genetic and somatic harm from environmental hazards for
this group compared to what it might have been. On the other hand,
as the average age of the population increases due to increasing
longevity, more men and women enter the range of greater vulnera-
bility to many of the harms associated with environmental pollution.
These general population trends seem to imply an overall reduc-
tion in the probability of harm for individuals in the United States
as a result of reduced exposure. However, as a result of a projected
population increase and projected increased average age of the
population, the total number of persons harmed by pollutants may
increase.
In addition, it has been pointed out earlier and it will be
emphasized in the regional data and projections in the Appendix, that
the population of the United States will continue to display hetero-
geneity with regard to demographic factors affecting vulnerability to
*See Appendix, Table A-3.
**See Appendix, Table A-l.
33
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harm from environmental hazards and contact with those hazards.
Therefore, some individuals may face a greater probability of harm
than others.
To be specific, the incidence of pollution-related illnesses
should tend to increase among the growing numbers of older, more
vulnerable persons, especially those older individuals who remain in
the more industrial and urban areas of the nation. On the other
hand, illness rates should be expected to proportionately decrease
among the increasing numbers of people, both young and old, who flee
from industrialized areas to the relatively less polluted areas of
the country. In the final analysis, those who do not escape the
environmental degradation of the factory and the city will, as now,
suffer the greater probability of harm from environmental hazard.
And, as now, this group can be expected to include a disproportionate
percentage of the economically and educationally disadvantaged—the
poor, those with less education, those in blue-collar and urban-
oriented service jobs, and those in basic and heavy industry.
In summary, younger men and women in the work force probably
face a lower probability of harm than did previous generations. On
the average, they have safer jobs and surroundings. Moreover, they
will enjoy advances in pollution control measures and health care
that benefit their generation more than their older predecessors.
The younger workers are in better health and are less vulnerable to
environmental hazards because of their generation as well as their
age.
34
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3.2 Generalized Implications of Regional Demographic Trends
Although national and regional analyses provide a broad perspec-
tive on the implications of demographic trends for potential harm, an
environmental hazard is often a more localized phenomenon. There-
fore, three census divisions have been selected to represent varying
regional trends.
The three census divisions selected for analysis in this section
are the Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic and Mountain divisions. The
Middle Atlantic division statistics reflect a low population growth
resulting from declining industrial activity of the Northeast. The
South Atlantic and Mountain divisions represent areas of rapid pop-
&
ulation increase. Factors underlying the growth of these divi-
sions differ, creating significant variation in the changing popula-
tion composition and in associated implications for the probability
of harm from environmental hazards. Specifically, growth in the
South Atlantic division has been generally attributed to the Sunbelt
phenomenon—the migration of people to areas of milder climate for
retirement and recreation. The Mountain division, however, is gain-
ing population as a result of resource development in response to
critical national energy needs.
3.2.1 South Atlantic Census Division
In the South Atlantic Census Division, the national trend in age
composition is amplified by an influx of increasing numbers of
See Appendix, Tables A-9 and A-16.
35
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New
England
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1972.
FIGURE2
CENSUS DIVISIONS OF THE UNITED STATES
-------
retirees. The national trend of a proportional increase in sub-
urban and rural residence is muted, and the occupational trend of
proportionally fewer employees in hazardous occupations is only
partially echoed.** While there is a comparative shift away from
blue-collar manufacturing employment in this region of the country, a
larger percentage of working age men and women are participating in
the labor force. Manufacturing is growing more rapidly in the
South Atlantic division than in the nation. While the probability of
harm from environmental hazards may be lower in the South Atlantic
division than in such areas as the Middle Atlantic division, this
probability will increase through the year 2000.
Outside of the workplace, the potential for harm associated with
environmental exposure is probably increasing in the South Atlantic
division. Certainly the age, and probably with age the vulnera-
bility, of this growing population is increasing.**** Moreover,
the metropolitan areas of the South Atlantic division are maintaining
JL ^u JL Jm Jg
their 1970 share of the population. Larger numbers of persons
will come in contact with pollution and consequent hazards that are
likely to be associated with the growing urban and industrial areas
*See Appendix, Tables A-10 and A-ll.
**See Appendix, Tables A-12 and A-15.
***See Appendix, Tables A-14 (occupation) and A-13 (labor force
by sex).
****See Appendix, Table A-ll.
*****See Appendix, Table A-12.
37
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of this region and a comparatively greater number of these persons
will be age 65 and over.
These patterns of employment and age are particularly evident in
Florida, where population and industry are growing at about two to
three times the national rates and the proportion of elderly in the
population is approaching twice that for the nation as a whole. Fur-
thermore, while the proportion of the population living in metropol-
itan areas has dropped slightly in recent years, in Florida the
proportion of metropolitan residents is 20 percent higher than in the
rest of the country. The basic implication of these trends is clear:
the probability of harm from environmental hazards appears to be
increasing in Florida where there is an expanding elderly population.
3.2.2 Mountain Census Division
Trends in occupation, location and age in the Mountain Census
Division are similar to those of the South Atlantic division, except
that the average age is not rising as fast as it is in the South
Atlantic division. In fact, the proportion of elderly persons in the
Mountain division is less than in the nation as a whole.* As with
the South Atlantic division, the Mountain division has not experi-
enced the degree of population shift to nonmetropolitan residences
that is being demonstrated in the nation as a whole. However, the
*See Appendix, Table A-18, as compared with Table A-3.
38
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proportion of its population living in metropolitan areas over the
past decade is 9 percent lower than in the nation as a whole.*
The Mountain division is experiencing increases in both male and
female labor force participation rates, contrary to the decline in
the male rate occurring nationally, and in recent years manufacturing
industries in the region have grown at about three times the national
rate. The implications for the probability of harm associated
with occupational hazard and exposure are similar in the rapidly
growing South Atlantic and Mountain divisions.
For both the South Atlantic and Mountain divisions, jeopardy
seems to be increasing and the situation is likely to get worse,
especially in the mountain states, as more and more energy resources
are developed and energy-intensive industry moves to the region. The
probability of harm from environmental hazards both inside and
outside of the work place is likely to increase as pollution and the
number of persons subjected to pollutants increase in growing urban
and industrial areas.
3.2.3 Middle Atlantic Census Division
The Middle Atlantic Census Division has an aging population that
is moving away from metropolitan areas and its employment base is
shifting from manufacturing industries. As appears to be the
*See Appendix, Table A-19, as compared with Table A-8.
**See Appendix, Tables A-20 (labor force by sex) and A-22
(industry).
***See Appendix, Tables A-25 (age), A-26 (shift from metropolitan
areas) and A-29 (industry).
39
-------
case for the nation as a whole, the probability of harm from environ-
mental and occupational hazards may be on the decline in the Middle
Atlantic division. The trend of increased participation in the labor
force echoes those in the South Atlantic and Mountain divisions, with
the male participation rate increasing somewhat and the female rate
jumping from 33.1 percent in 1960 to 49.7 percent in 1976.* How-
ever, workers are likely to face fewer occupational hazards since the
proportion of jobs in manufacturing has decreased, along with the
absolute number of workers at these kinds of jobs.** While manu-
facturing employment in the nation increased by about 8 percent
between 1972 and 1978, it shrank by nearly 13 percent between 1970
and 1976 in the Middle Atlantic division. Even with these opposite
changes, however, the division still had a larger proportion of its
workers employed in manufacturing. While occupational contact with
harmful substances may be declining, it is still probably higher than
in the nation as a whole.
The same is the case for environmental contact associated with
residence in the Middle Atlantic division. While the region experi-
enced a relative and absolute decline in metropolitan residency in
the 1970s, the proportion of the total population living in metropol-
itan areas was about 20 percent higher in the division than in the
nation.***
*See Appendix, Table A-27.
**See Appendix, Table A-29.
Jf JL *U
See Appendix, Table A-26.
40
-------
With people—especially the elderly—moving from the Middle
Atlantic division to other areas, vulnerability to environmental
hazards should decrease there. As with the nation as a whole,
workers and others who remain in the division will be in less
jeopardy due to the lower pollution levels made possible with new
control measures and advances in general health care that will
benefit their generation more than their predecessors.
41
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4.0 ENVIRONMENTAL DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Recent projections of future environmental trends indicate that,
by the year 2000, particulate emissions are expected to be compar-
able in the states of Pennsylvania and Florida due to improvement
in Pennsylvania and deterioration in Florida, compared with 1975
levels.* Concurrent projections of population trends indicate
that, while the age 65 and over populations of these two states were
roughly the same in 1975, by 2000 the elderly population of Pennsyl-
vania will have increased only slightly and that of Florida will have
more than doubled (U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b).
Evidence indicates that the elderly are more sensitive to air
pollutants than the general population (Calabrese 1978). If one also
accepts emissions as a surrogate for air quality, one might expect a
greater incidence of particulate-related health problems in Florida
than in Pennsylvania by 2000 as a partial consequence of Florida's
larger elderly population. This simplistic argument excludes consid-
eration of factors such as climate and previous exposure. Neverthe-
less, it does suggest that when demographic changes are considered in
conjunction with pollutant emission trends, a more precise picture of
future environmental protection needs will emerge than when pollutant
data alone are considered.
*Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980 High Growth
Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS) produced for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1980).
43
-------
This paper has a dual purpose: to examine the changing rela-
tionships of populations to technology and the environment; and to
explore the potential role of demographic trends as a viable factor
in planning for the environmental future. As part of this explora-
tion, a conceptual framework has been presented linking technologi-
cal development and consequent environmental degradation to social
factors such as human activities; attitudes and values; and attri-
butes such as age, location, health, genetics and habits. In this
section, the elderly subpopulation is singled out to illustrate the
way in which relationships between environmental factors and demo-
graphic trends might be used to provide input to the development of
environmental policies.
4.1 Air Pollution: An Example of Environmental Demographic
Analysis
The discussions in Sections 2 and 3 of general implications
associated with population changes explored the variables of contact
with harmful agents and vulnerability without reference to particular
kinds of hazards. To specifically illustrate the relationships
between population change and change in probability of harm, air pol-
lution is explored in the following discussion.
This section provides general background information on major
air pollutants and their adverse health effects, discusses the gen-
eral implications and presents a discussion of projected air pol-
lution trends emphasizing changes in net emissions expected at the
national level and in each of the three census divisions discussed in
44
-------
Section 3. Section 4.2 contains specific examples of methodologies
for quantitatively relating demographic factors to the probability of
harm from environmental hazards for a specific locality. For the
Tampa-St. Petersburg area, a probabilistic methodology is used to
predict contact with harmful agents. For Salt Lake County, Utah, an
econometric methodology is used to relate empirical projections in
mortality that can be attributed to projected changes in pollutants.
The two methodologies are offered as illustrations—not as
precise measures of relationships between pollution levels and demo-
graphic characteristics in the areas analyzed. Problems of inade-
quate data and an incomplete understanding of the relationships
between pollutants and health, mentioned above, prevent precision in
environmental demography at this time.
4.1.1 Health Effects of Major Air Pollutants
Several major air pollutants are recognized as having adverse
health effects, as summarized in Table 1. The cost to the nation of
the health effects of air pollution have been investigated by a num-
ber of authors and reviewed extensively by Freeman (1979) and by
Linnerooth (1975). Crocker et al. (1979) estimated, for instance,
that a pollution reduction of 60 percent would result in health bene-
fits equivalent to $59.1 billion in 1978 dollars. Other estimates,
cited by Crocker et al. (1979), assumed less pollution reduction and
lower dollar savings.
45
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TABLE 1
SELECTED STUDIES OF HEALTH EFFECTS
OF MAJOR AIR POLLUTANTS
Pollutants
Target
Population
Covariates
Participates, U.S. SMSAs3
sulfates
Sulfur dioxide
Sulfur dioxide
Particulates,
sulfur dioxide
Sulfur dioxide
Particulates
Chicago, Denver,
Philadelphia, St.
Louis, Washington,
D.C.
U.S. SMSAs
U.S. SMSAs; male,
white, over 65
New York City
Smoke shade, New York City
sulfur dioxide
Smoke shade, New York City
sulfur dioxide
New York Metro-
politan region
Buffalo, N.Y.
Population, popu-
lation density,
age, race, income
Weather, day of the
week
Temperature, precip-
itation, humidity,
age, race, sex,
socioeconomic
factors
Various climatic,
demographic, and
socioeconomic
factors
Weather
Weather, day of
the week
Temperature,
epidemics, disas-
ters, holidays,
days of the week,
time trends
Age, sex, race,
income
A 10 percent reduction in minimum bi-
weekly sulfate and mean biweekly par-
ticulates associated with 0.91 percent
reduction in mortality
A decrease of 0.092 ppm in the mean con-
centration of sulfur dioxide associated
with a decrease of 63 deaths per day
(Chicago)
Sulfur dioxide found significant in
explaining mortality rates
Found significant association between sul-
fates and mortality from arterioscler-
otic heart disease and cancer of
respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts
Found significant association between sul-
fur dioxide and particulate levels and
mortality from respiratory and heart
disease
Found association of daily mortality with
sulfur dioxide stronger than with any
weather variable
Between 18.12 and 36.76 excess deaths per,
day associated with air pollution; 80
percent of effect ascribed to smoke
shade, 20 percent to sulfur dioxide
Found association between sulfur dioxide
levels and residual mortality
Mortality from chronic respiratory disease
found twice as high at high as at low
particulate levels
aStandard Metropolitan Statistical Area.
46
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TABLE 1 (Continued)
Pollutants
Particulates
Particulates,
soiling, dust,
sulfur dioxide,
sulfation
Particulates ,
soiling, dust,
sulfur dioxide,
sulfation
Particulates ,
sulfur dioxide,
sulfation
Particulates ,
sulfur dioxide
Soiling
Particulates ,
sulfation
Nitrogen dioxide
Nitrogen dioxide
Nitrogen dioxide
Target
Population
Buffalo N.Y.
Buffalo, N.Y.
Nashville, Tenn.
Nashville, Tenn.
Nashville, Tenn.
Los Angeles, Calif.
Allegheny County
(Pittsburgh)
Berlin, N.H. , and
Chilliweek, B.C.
Chattanooga, Tenn. ,
school children
Chattanooga, Tenn. ,
school children
Parents of
Chattanooga, Tenn. ,
school children
Covariates
Age, sex,
Age, sex, race ,
income
Age , sex, race ,
income
Age, sex, race,
income
Age, sex, race,
Weather
Weather, day of
the week
Smoking
Smoking , socio-
economic factors
Years of exposure
Smoking, age,
sex, race
Results
cancer found twice as high at high as
at low particulate levels
Found association between particulate
disease, and cirrhosis of the liver
Found association between soiling and
sulfur dioxide and total morbidity and
cardiovascular disease morbidity;
association between sulfation, dust-
fall, and particulates and cardio-
vascular disease in females
Found association between particulates
and cardiovascular mortality In
females; association between soiling
and sulfation and mortality from
respiratory disease, but not lung
cancer
Found association between pollutant levels
esophagus, stomach and bladder, but not
lung cancer
Found significant association between pol-
lutant levels and disease-specific hos-
pital admissions and lengths of stay
Doubling of soiling index associated with
22-percent increase in admissions for
respiratory emergency
Found association between particulate
and sulfation levels and Incidence of
chronic respiratory disease
Rates of acute respiratory illness found
higher In areas with high nitrogen
dioxide levels
Found association between exposure to
nitrogen dioxide and incidence of
bronchitis
No association found between nitrogen
dioxide and chronic bronchitis
47
-------
TABLE 1 (Concluded)
Pollutants
Target
Population
Covariates
Results
Nitrogen dioxide
Photochemical
oxidants
Photochemical
oxidants
Carbon monoxide
U.S. SMSAs, white
males and females
over 65
School children in
Los Angeles, Calif.
Student nurses in
Los Angeles, Calif.
Los Angeles County
Weather, socio-
economic factors
Not provided
Nitrogen dioxide,
carbon monoxide,
temperature
Oxidants, tempera-
ture
00
Mortality from hypertensive heart disease
increased by about 200 per 100,000;
lung cancer increased by 50 percent for
males, and 130 percent for females upon
increasing nitrogen dioxide levels from
0.03 to 0.08 ppm
Found no significant association between
oxidant levels and school absenteeism
due to respiratory illness
Developed thresholds for several health
symptoms
Found significant association between
daily mortality and carbon monoxide,
but not oxidants
Carbon monoxide
Not provided
Not provided
Found association between carbon monoxide
and angina and intermittent
claudication
Non-specific
air pollution
Benzo-a-pyrene
Oxidants,
nitrogen dioxide,
carbon monoxide
Students at seven
California
universities
U.S. and 19 other
countries
California
Climatic and
socioeconomic
variables, holi-
days , chronic
conditions
Not provided
Not provided
Found association between air pollution
and excess incidence of respiratory
illness
An increase of 1 microgram per 1,000 cubic
meters in concentration of benzo-a-
pyrene was associated with 5 percent
increase in mortality from lung cancer
Developed a series of dose-effect func-
tions on the basis of expert opinions
Source: Adapted from Hershaft et al. 1976.
-------
An examination of the principal sources of major air pollutants
suggests that they are inherent in our industrial-metropolitan life-
style and in our cultural dependence upon fossil resources for energy
and raw feedstocks. It can be expected that persons most closely
associated with industrial activity or metropolitan areas will inhale
the greatest quantity of air pollutants and consequently suffer the
greatest probability of harm.
4.1.2 General Health Implications
Danger to human health associated with air pollution appears to
be declining for the population as a whole since air pollution is
being abated and populations are migrating from the most polluted
areas. Although vulnerability to air pollutants is increasing as the
average age of the population increases, greater sensitivity may be
more than compensated for by reduced inhalation of pollutants as
people migrate from polluted areas and experience less occupational
contact with hazardous fumes.
On the regional level, some areas will experience increases in
air pollution as a result of population increases. With recent
declines in fertility and birth rates, regional population growth has
increasingly become a function of interregional migration, with the
result that many persons in the faster growing regions once lived in
regions with larger populations and higher air pollution levels. For
the individual, the increasing levels of air pollution in the growing
regions represent relatively less hazard. A majority of individuals
49
-------
there are better off in spite of worsening conditions because many of
them moved there from areas of relatively greater air pollution.
This decrease in personal jeopardy, however, does not extend to those
individuals born and raised in growing regions where worsening condi-
tions promise relatively more hazard.
The long-time residents of regions with worsening conditions may
find those changes undesirable and unacceptable, especially since
many of them were attracted to the region by clean air when they
moved there from a more polluted region 10 or 20 years ago. These
early migrants, their offspring and other native-born residents
expect cleaner air. Similarly, recent migrants to these regions will
also expect cleaner air. The fact that the air is cleaner than that
which they breathed in the past in another region will only bolster
their expectations and cause them to perceive and evaluate worsening
conditions more negatively. Despite relatively less environmental
danger than would have been experienced, the remaining hazard may be
judged to be less acceptable.
4.1.3 National and Regional Air Pollution Trends
4.1.3.1 National Trends. Between 1975 and 2000, projections of
net emissions of major air pollutants, assuming full compliance with
existing regulations, indicate increases in the oxides of nitrogen
and sulfur and decreases in particulates, hydrocarbons and carbon
50
-------
monoxide as illustrated in Figure 3.* However, for Federal regions
(pictured in Figure 4 and distinct from the census divisions dis-
cussed above), the pattern will be one of inter-regional hetero-
geneity as shown in Table 2. The regions in which air pollution is
expected to increase are those experiencing growth in industry and/or
population (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980). For example,
projected industrial and population growth in the South and West in
2000 can be expected to result in increased air pollutant emission
levels compared to 1975 levels.
4.1.3.2 Trends in Air Pollution in Selected Areas. Projected
changes in emissions for the five major air pollutants are summarized
in Table 3 for the nation and for selected Federal regions. These
and related data were introduced above and are discussed in detail in
Chapter 4 of Environmental Outlook 1980 (U.S. Environmental Protec-
tion Agency 1980). The principal assumptions determining the pro-
jected trends are summarized in Table 4.
Under the assumption of full compliance with existing regula-
tions, only the net emissions of the oxides of sulfur and nitrogen
are expected to surpass 1975 levels by the year 2000 at the national
level. However, by 2000, particulates and hydrocarbons are expected
to rise from lows achieved earlier in the period, while carbon
monoxide is expected to decline steadily throughout the period.
*Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980 High Growth
Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS) produced for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1980).
51
-------
1.5
c
g
CO
co
'E
UJ
o
c
o
1.0
.5
I Other
]Chemicals and Allied Products
jConstruction Materials
^Transportation
| Industrial Combustion
I Petroleum Refining
I Electric Utilities
1975 2000
Particulates
1975 2000
Sulfur
Oxides
1975 2000
Nitrogen
Oxides
1975 2000
Hydro-
Carbons
1975 2000
Carbon
Monoxide
Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1979.
FIGURES
NATIONAL TRENDS IN NET EMISSIONS OF MAJOR
AIR POLLUTANTS BY SOURCE
1975 AND 2000
52
-------
New England
U>
New York-
New Jersey
Puerto Rico
Federal Regions
I. New England
II. New York-New Jersey
I. Middle Atlantic
IV. Southeast
V. Great Lakes
VI. South Central
VII. Central
VIII. Mountain
IX. West
X. Northwest
Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980. Virgin Islands
FIGURE4
FEDERAL REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES
-------
TABLE 2
REGIONAL TRENDS
IN MAJOR AIR POLLUTION EMISSIONS
Pollutant
Regional Trends
Cause
Implications
Particulates Decline in emissions in
Federal Regions II, III,
and V, reduction in
Region VII.
Slow increase in Federal
Regions I, VI, VII, IX,
and X.
Sulfur Oxides Decrease in Federal Regions
II, III, V, and IX.
Increase in Federal Regions
I, IV, VI, VII, VIII,
and X.
Nitrogen Increase in all Federal
Oxides regions.
Hydrocarbons Decrease in all Federal
regions.
Carbon Decrease in all Federal
Monoxide regions.
Implementation of control devices Decrease in potential of
on electric utility and industrial photochemical smog and
boilers. health-related effects.
Implementation of control tech-
nologies which reduce the amount
of dust created by the construc-
tion materials industry.
Increased use of coal in the
electric utility industry tends
to offset air pollution control
technologies•
A limited increase in the number
of coal-burning facilities and
increased compliance with air
pollution regulations.
Increased number of electric
utilities and industrial boilers
burning coal as a source of fuel
will tend to offset air pollution
control requirements.
Increased burning of coal and oil
by industry.
Compliance with transportation
emission standards.
Compliance with transportation
emission standards.
Increase in potential for
atmospheric acid rain,
photochemical smog and
health-related effects.
Decrease in localized
respiratory ailments.
Increase in potential for
atmospheric acid rain and
localized respiratory
ailments.
Increase in the potential
for atmospheric acid rain
and photochemical smog.
Decrease in the formation
of photochemical smog.
Reduction in the occurrence
of short-term health prob-
lems (such as nausea,
headaches, dizziness).
Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980.
-------
Ln
TABLE 3
TRENDS IN NET EMISSIONS OF MAJOR AIR POLLUTANTS
FOR THE NATION AND SELECTED AREAS
Particulates
United States
Percent of Basea
Percent of Totalb
Middle Atlantic Region
Percent of Base
Percent of Total
Southeast Region
Percent of Base
Percent of Total
West Central Florida AQCR
Percent of Base
Percent of Total
Mountain Region
Percent of Base
Percent of Total
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
17.6
100.0
22.3
100.0
0.3
100.0
3.4
1985
61.0
100.0
40.1
12.2
60.9
21.1
110.7
0.6
93.1
4.4
2000
85.4
100.0
49.8
10.3
97.9
25.4
137.6
0.5
138.3
5.6
Sulfur Oxides
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
14.8
100.0
21.5
100.0
1.7
100.0
2.0
1985
91.2
100.0
83.3
13.7
96.4
22.9
133.2
2.4
137.7
3.0
2000
105.7
100.0
92.7
13.1
107.0
22.0
136.5
2.1
188.5
3.5
Nitrogen Oxides
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
11.8
100.0
16.7
100.0
0.8
100.0
2.7
1985
120.6
100.0
106.3
10.2
118.0
16.4
143.2
0.9
197.9
4.0
2000
142.5
100.0
125.3
10.2
143.3
17.0
174.3
1.0
293.3
5.3
Hydrocarbons
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
10.4
100.0
14.1
100.0
0.7
100.0
3.0
1985
71.8
100.0
63.2
9.3
72.2
14.3
73.0
0.7
79.9
3.1
2000
74.7
100.0
61.9
7.9
74.2
13.9
79.0
0.7
90.3
4.0
Carbon Monoxide
1975
100.0
100.0
100.0
10.7
100.0
17.0
100.0
0.8
100.0
3.3
1985
71.7
100.0
67.5
10.2
71.6
16.9
70.6
0.8
74.1
3.4
2000
56.4
100.0
45.7
8.7
55.0
16.5
57.1
0.8
49.6
2.9
aThe base is the quantity emitted in 1975.
total is the quantity for the nation.
Source:
Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980 High Growth Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS)
produced for the U.S. Environmental protection Agency (1980).
-------
TABLE 4
MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS AFFECTING PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE LEVELS
AND DISTRIBUTION OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
Major Assumptions
Description
Substitution of coal for
oil and gas
Rate at which existing
electric utilities are
phased out and replaced
by new facilities
Effect of economic growth
or transportation
activity
Energy development and
population and industrial
shifts
Emissions from fuel combustion (essentially
coal burning) are a significant portion of
particulate, sulfur oxides and nitrogen
oxides emissions from human activities.
Thus, increased use of coal as a utility and
boiler fuel will tend to offset environmen-
tal improvements from implementation of
environmental controls.
Under current State Implementation Plan
requirements, older electric utilities
(existing before 1976) are generally
permitted much higher pollutant releases per
unit of electricity generated than new
facilities. To simulate the effect of
slower economic growth on the availability
of investment capital for plant expansion,
the rate at which older facilities are
replaced is lower in the Low Growth Scenario
than in the High.
Low economic growth, high oil prices and
shifts among transportation modes tend to
reduce transportation activity and the emis-
sions from vehicular travel (e.g., NO.
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide).
x>
Energy development in the West and South-
west, along with a gradual shift in popu-
lation and industrial activity to the Sun-
belt, will affect regional distribution of
emissions over time.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1980.
56
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Particulate emissions are expected to climb from roughly 60 percent
of 1975 levels in 1985 to 85 percent of 1975 levels by 2000.*
These general national projections are reflected in the three
selected Federal regions as well. Projected trends for Federal
Region IV (Southeast) closely approximate those for the nation,
although emissions of particulates are expected to rise in the region
to very near their 1975 levels by 2000 after declining to about 60
percent of the 1975 levels in 1985. The Middle Atlantic and Mountain
Federal regions afford a study in contrasts. For instance, while the
Middle Atlantic Federal Region is projected to show more improvement
than the nation as a whole, relative change in the Mountain Federal
Region reflects projected worsening conditions. After an initial
drop, particulate emissions in the Mountain Federal Region are pro-
jected to rise to nearly 140 percent of 1975 levels by 2000; emission
levels of sulfur oxides are expected to show no intermediate improve-
ment, but to rise steadily to about 190 percent of 1975 levels by
2000; nitrogen oxides emission levels are projected to nearly triple
by 2000; and emissions of hydrocarbons, although indicating improve-
ment, are projected to return to 90 percent of 1975 levels by
2000. Although the main emphasis of this study, and hence the
foregoing analysis, involves trends, or changes in emissions through
the year 2000, the relative magnitude of the emissions in these two
*Based on data provided in Environmental Outlook 1980, High Growth
Scenario runs of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System
(SEAS) produced for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(1980). 57
-------
regions should be pointed out. Even after improvements in the Middle
Atlantic Federal Region and a decline in conditions in the Mountain
Federal Region, overall amounts of net emissions in the Middle
Atlantic Federal Region will still be greater than in the Mountain
Federal Region.
The contrasting regional trends reflect demographic and economic
growth patterns expected in the Middle Atlantic and Mountain regions
in the next two decades. State Implementation Plans (SIPs) are cur-
rently in force in some Middle Atlantic states, while the western
states (including those in the Mountain Federal Region) are mostly
regulated by generally more stringent New Source Performance Stan-
dards (NSPS). If it were not for this difference, projected air
pollutant emissions trends for the Mountain Federal Region would be
higher than they are.
The foregoing discussion emphasizes the disparity between
regional trends in air emissions, indicating a need to study rela-
tively small geographic areas to ascertain potential effects on a
population. Moreover, demographic heterogeneity, discussed earlier,
justifies studying even smaller areas to gain as homogeneous a sample
as possible when determining the probability of harm from air emis-
sion hazards for the population. Specific examples of analyses of
the interaction of air emission projections and demographic factors
follow, one at the Air Quality Control Region (AQCR) level (West Cen-
tral Florida) and one at the county level (Salt Lake County, Utah).
58
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4.2 Probability of Harm From Air Pollutant Hazards
4.2.1 Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida, Area
The basic assumptions in the methodology demonstrated in this
section are that:
o One can examine changes in jeopardy in a probabilistic manner
in which increased population and increased air emissions
both result in an increased probability of harm; and
o An increase in the number of vulnerable individuals or in
individual vulnerability will also result in an increased
probability of harm for the population as a whole.
To estimate a change in the probability of harm for a population, one
can obtain the product of the ratios of predicted values to baseline
values for hazard, the absolute or proportional population at risk
and, if available, some measure of vulnerability.
Table 5 presents projected proportional changes in net emissions
over 1975 levels for 1985 and 2000 for the five major pollutants in
the West Central Florida AQCR. Projected emissions for this AQCR
were presented in Table 3. Table 5 presents projected proportional
changes in the total population for the AQCR for these two years com-
pared to 1975, and statewide projections for changes in subpopula-
tions under age 5 and age 65 and over (for lack of regional data).
In considering the year 2000, emissions of particulates, sulfur
oxides and nitrogen oxides are projected to increase over 1975 lev-
els; emissions of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide are expected to
decrease compared to 1975 levels; and the total population of the
AQCR is expected to increase, with the state's age 65 and over sub-
population doubling in 2000 compared to 1975. The ratios for the
59
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TABLE 5
TRENDS IN AIR POLLUTION AND POPULATION IN THE
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AIR QUALITY CONTROL REGION
Proportion of 1975 Value ina
1985b 2000b
Net Air Emissions0
Particulates
Sulfur Oxides
Nitrogen Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Population Variables'^
All Persons
Under 5 years6
65 Years and Over6
1.1
1.3
1.4
0.7
0.7
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.7
0.8
0.6
1.7
1.4
2.1
aThe 1975 value = 1.0.
^Proportions based on projected value for 1985 or 2000 divided by value
in 1975.
CSEAS data (see Table 3).
dU.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b.
eState level data.
60
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year 2000 are used to calculate the Indices presented in Table 6.
These indices are simply the compound product of changes in projected
emissions for each of the five major pollutants and projected changes
in total population and subpopulations (under age 5 and age 65 and
over) from 1975 through 2000. These indices account only for pro-
jected changes in pollutant inhalation at the population and subpopu-
lation level during this time period. Since a single individual
represents unity, the change in inhalation at the individual level is
represented by the projected change in emissions for any given pollu-
tant. In order to more accurately determine the actual probability
of harm at the population or individual level, one would have to con-
sider vulnerability to account for differing probabilities of either
morbidity or mortality (or both) for each population or subgroup
(e.g., total population, elderly, children, smokers, alcohol drink-
ers) for each pollutant.
The determination of vulnerability is an important issue and a
complex task—important because it is a key factor and complex
because, for any given population group and pollutant, the relation-
ship between vulnerability and contact with a pollutant may be non-
linear. Atkins et al. (1980) wrote that there could be two kinds of
non-linearity. Obviously, increased pollution levels may cause
increasing damage, as expressed in the formula, D = F (P^, SE),
where D is a measure of mortality, P is a vector of pollution param-
eters and SE is a vector of various socio-economic parameters that
61
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TABLE 6
INDICES OF AIR POLLUTION INHALATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AQCR FOR THE YEAR 2000
Air Pollutant (1975 = 1.0*)
Population
at Risk
Particulates
Sulfur
Oxides
Nitrogen
Oxides
Hydrocarbons
Carbon
Monoxide
All Persons 2.4
Under 5 Years 2.0
65 Years and Over 2.9
2.4
2.0
2.9
2.9
2.4
3.6
1.4
1.1
1.7
1.0
0.8
1.3
alnhalation indices were calculated as a product of population or subpopulation and net air
emissions for the (year 2000):(year 1975) ratios from Table 5. These indices take into
account only changes in population or subpopulation size and changes in air pollutant emis-
sions and are thus comparative measures only.
-------
would relate to vulnerability. Moreover, they wrote that the effects
of one pollutant may be exacerbated or attenuated by the presence of
another. In addition, there may be thresholds, above or below which
vulnerability is not affected by changes in the quantity of pollu-
tants inhaled. The indices in Table 6 should be interpreted with
these caveats in mind.
The data reported in Table 5 suggest dramatic population changes
in the West Central Florida AQCR during the remainder of this centu-
ry. The subpopulation of persons age 65 and over is likely to double
by the year 2000, while total population is expected to increase by a
factor of 1.7- Due to projected increases in particulates and in
oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, all groups examined will be subject to
higher levels of these pollutants in 2000 compared to 1975. In addi-
tion, population growth will increase the number of persons inhaling
the substances. With the high influx of older migrants to Florida
and with the increasing age of the population as a whole, inhalation
of these pollutants will increase more for the elderly than for other
portions of the population examined. Little change is expected
through 2000 in the quantity of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide
inhaled by the overall population and the under age 5 subpopulation.
The elderly population is expected to experience relatively little
change in exposure to carbon monoxide, but an increased exposure to
hydrocarbons in 2000 compared to 1975.
63
-------
The compounded probability of harm associated with population
growth is an important societal trend, whether for a subpopulation or
a total regional population. As the number of persons who inhale and
are vulnerable to a pollutant increases, even where the pollution
level does not, there should be greater impetus for environmental
protection. Society and its affected members bear the costs of ill
health. In situations where larger numbers of elderly persons are
subjected to larger amounts of air pollution, as is the projected
trend in this AQCR, the costs to society and to these older victims
will be especially great due to their sensitivity to the harm and
public responsibility for their care. In cases such as these, it may
be particularly beneficial to apply tighter controls to major sources
of hazardous pollutants.
4.2.2 Salt Lake County, Utah
The previous subsection illustrated a way to estimate changes in
quantities of pollutants inhaled by populations and subpopulations in
the Tampa-St. Petersburg area. Given indices of subpopulation vul-
nerabilities to pollution-caused harm, the methodology could be
extended to estimate potential changes in probability of harm for
these subpopulations. A simplistic methodology to predict potential
mortality or morbidity would require empirical data on mortality or
morbidity rates, some measure of pollution and socioeconomic varia-
bles. These factors would be regressed on each other to obtain
elasticity measures by which one can correlate amounts of change in
64
-------
mortality or morbidity with specific amounts of change in a given
pollution variable. Freeman (1979) reviewed the current literature
on the correlations between air pollution and both mortality and
morbidity, presenting a detailed evaluation of attempts to derive
elasticity measures to relate these factors.
This subsection demonstrates the applicability of empirically
derived elasticity measures relating mortality to projected air pol-
lution trends in a specific geographic area. Salt Lake County, Utah,
was chosen for this example as a representative urban county in the
Mountain Federal Region and Census Division. The county population
is expected to increase by 52 percent over 1975 levels by 1995 (Salt
Lake County Council of Governments 1977). Significant growth in
industry, commerce and agriculture is expected, along with resultant
increases in major air pollutants (Table 7).
Lave and Seskin (1970) reported an elasticity of 0.09 for total
death rates as a function of changes in particulates (suspended par-
ticulates and sulfate particles). This elasticity means that for a 1
percent increase in particulates, one can predict a 0.09 percent
increase in total mortality. The merits and problems of this partic-
ular elasticity estimate, along with others for subpopulations
(infant death rate, neonatal death rate, fetal death rate), are pre-
sented by Freeman (1979) and are not at issue here since this sub-
section serves only to illustrate a potential method of analysis.
Estimates of statewide death rates for Utah, derived for 1975 from
65
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TABLE 7
AIR POLLUTION PROJECTIONS
SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH
Projected Emissions
(Thousands of Tons)
Pollutant
Sulfur Oxides
Carbon Monoxide
Nitrogen Oxides
Particulates
Hydrocarbons
1975
363
283
48
201
37
1995
467
416
73
294
59
Percent
Increase
29
47
52
46
59
Source: Adapted from Salt Lake County Council of Governments 1977.
-------
Bureau of the Census data (U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b)
are used as a surrogate for that year's Salt Lake County death
rate. As indicated in Table 8, mortality for the total population
of Salt Lake County due to particulates in 1995 would be predicted to
increase by 4.17 percent over 1975 levels, representing approximately
200 deaths.
The above analysis offers a crude estimate to demonstrate a
methodology and to indicate areas where more detailed information is
needed. For instance, regional and subregional pollutant emission
projections and population projections for subgroups that may be
particularly vulnerable to pollution (e.g., very young, very old,
smokers) are needed in more disaggregated form than is generally
available. The elasticities as reviewed by Freeman (1979) represent
only the beginning of understanding the relationships between air
pollution and both mortality and morbidity. Elasticities expressing
these relationships for specific sensitive groups and expressing the
potentially synergistic relationships between two or more pol-
lutants need to be further understood and refined. Detailed data on
population trends, disaggregated to county, AQCR and subpopulation
levels, as well as similarly disaggregated emission projections and
*April 1970 to July 1980: 78,000 deaths projected for Utah.
Assuming a constant number of annual deaths, there would have been
7,800 deaths in 1975. Utah population is expected to grow from
1.059 million in 1970 to 1.321 million in 1980. Assuming a linear
growth rate during this period, the 1975 population would have been
1.190 million. The estimated 1975 death rate would then be 6.55 per
1,000 population.
67
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TABLE 8
ESTIMATES OF MORTALITY DUE TO PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH
Parameters
Population (Thousands)3
Particulates (Thousands of Tons)3
Total Death Rate (per Thousand)15
1975
522.0
201.0
6.55
1995
791.0
294.0
6.82°
Percent
Change
+ 51.5
+ 46.3
+ 4.17C
00 Death Rate Attributed to Increase
in particulate Emissions: 1975
to 1995 (per 1,000) 0.0 0.27
Deaths attributable to increased particulate emissions (compared to
1975) in 1995 = 0.27 deaths per 1,000 population x 791,000
population = 214 deaths
aFrom Salt Lake County Council of Governments 1977.
^Calculated from Bureau of the Census Data (U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a,
1979b).
cAssumes 1 percent increase in particulate emissions results in 0.09 percent
increase in total mortality (Lave and Seskin 1970).
-------
elasticities, would permit more precise models of the pollution
impact on various segments of the population for consideration in
fine-tuning future regulations.
4.3 Conclusion
Section 4.2 presented two somewhat related methodologies to
quantitatively predict the potential for harm from pollution hazards
in the environment. While the methodologies may lack absolute pre-
cision, they can be used in a comparative manner to show relative
differences in the probability of harm resulting from different
hazards or pollution levels, or to demonstrate differences in the
probability of harm from the same hazards or pollution levels,
encountered by different population subgroups. With further devel-
opment, the methodologies could contribute to major policy delibera-
tions. This process can be valuable to the regulatory arena because
it can indicate where the greatest benefits, in terms of protecting
human health and welfare, can be achieved with minimal regulatory
constraints. In addition, it can give some indication of where the
greatest potential for detriments to health will be in the future.
69
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APPENDIX
DATA ON POPULATION TRENDS
Two sets of data are presented in this Appendix to support the
foregoing analyses. The first part of the Appendix contains national
level data on population size, spatial distribution, age distribution
and employment. These data are presented to provide a national pro-
file of population patterns and trends with environmental risk impli-
cations. The second part of the Appendix consists of similar data
for the three census divisions examined in the paper (South Atlantic,
Middle Atlantic and Mountain divisions) disaggregated to the state
level. Each set of data in the following sections is preceded by
significant highlights of population patterns and trends.
A.1 National Patterns and Trends
A.1.1 Population Gro-frth (Tables A-l and A-2)
o One of the most significant population trends in the United
States since the middle of the 1960s has been the slowing
growth rate. This has been attributed primarily to a decline
in the birth rate rather than to any major change in the
death rate or immigration.
o Total population is projected to reach approximately 263 mil-
lion by the turn of the century and to continue rising to
about 312 million by 2040, assuming a fertility rate of
2.1.*
*Census Bureau projections are based on fertility rates ranging
from 1.7 to 2.7- Projections based on a 2.1 rate were selected for
use here, based on personal communication with a Bureau staff member
who said actual population growth has most closely tracked this set
of projections in recent years. Future change in population growth
would justify using a different set of the Bureau's frequently
updated projections.
71
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TABLE A-l
U.S. POPULATION GROWTH RATE
Year
1790
1840
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Population
(Millions)
3.9
17.1
63.1
76.1
92.4
106.5
123.1
132.6
152.3
180.7
204.9
222.8
245.1
262.5
278.8
294.0
304.3
312.0
Average Annual Rate
of Change
(Percent)
3.0
2.65
1.88
1.94
1.42
1.46
0.74
1.38
1.71
1.26
0.84
0.95
0.69
0.60
0.53
0.34
0.25
Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility
rate.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce
1977.
72
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TABLE A-2
COMPONENTS OF U.S. POPULATION GROWTH
(Thousands)
Year
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Net
Changea
1,128
853
1,221
1,462
2,486
2,925
2,901
2,315
2,227
1,582
2,155
2,284
2,068
1,706
1,550
Birthsb
2,618
2,377
2,570
2,873
3,645
4,128
4,307
3,801
3,739
3,232
3,926
4,172
4,072
3,832
3,792
Deaths0
1,419
1,421
1,432
1,549
1,468
1,537
1,708
1,830
1,927
2,050
2,171
2,288
2,404
2,526
2,642
Net Civilian
Immigration
113
-2
77
162
299
337
327
373
438
400
400
400
400
400
400
Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility
rate.
alncludes estimates of overseas admissions into and
discharges from the armed forces and the error of
closure between censuses.
^Adjusted for underregistration through March 1970.
cDeaths occurring in the United States plus esti-
mated deaths occurring in the armed forces abroad
except for 1930 through 1939 when the estimates are
for the resident population of the conterminous United
States only. Infant deaths adjusted for underregis-
tration through March 1960.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce
1977.
73
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A. 1.2 Age Structure (Table A-3)
o Projections indicate an aging trend for the national popula-
tion. While the percent of population under age 5 is
expected to remain about the same, the percent 65 and over
will increase significantly until it levels off at approxi-
mately 18 percent in 2030. This compares to the 1970 level
of about 9.8 percent.
A. 1.3 Labor Force (Tables A-4 and A-5)
o Female participation in the labor force has been increasing
significantly in all age categories. This is in contrast to
male participation which has declined for those age 45 and
over. The influx of women into the work force began with
those beyond childbearing age, followed by younger married
women without children. More recently, many women with
school-age children have entered the labor market.
o There has been a general shift away from farm related employ-
ment toward professional and administrative jobs. Females
are capturing a larger share of these professional positions
than in the past and they are entering the traditionally male
dominated industries of mining, construction and manufac-
turing .
A.1.4 Regional Growth and Migration (Tables A-6 and A-7)
o Although population growth in the nation is expected to
remain low for some time, there will be significant regional
variations in growth, with some census regions growing more
rapidly than others. Specifically, the South and West are
expected to grow more rapidly than the Northeast and North
Central census regions. (The census regions, as distinct
from census divisions discussed in Section 3, are pictured in
Figure A-l).
o The average annual rate of growth between 1975 and 2000 is
projected to be highest in the South Census Region, followed
by the West. The lowest growth rate is expected in the
Northeast Census Region.
o Growth in the South and West is attributed mainly to the Sun-
belt phenomenon. In addition, the West will experience
growth related to energy resource development.
o Net migration is a key factor in the variation of regional
growth patterns. Between 1970 and 1975, the South and West
74
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TABLE A-3
AGE COMPOSITION OF THE U.S. POPULATION
Year
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Median Age
22.9
24.1
25.3
26.5
29.0
30.2
29.5
28.1
30.2
32.8
35.5
36.6
37.0
38.0
37.8
37.8
0-17
40.3
38.0
37.3
34.9
30.5
31.1
35.8
34.0
27.9
26.6
26.5
24.6
24.6
24.1
24.0
24.3
Percent of Population
18-64 65
55.6
57.7
58.1
59.7
62.7
60.8
55.0
56.2
60.9
61.1
61.3
62.8
59.8
57.5
58.2
58.2
and Over
4.1
4.3
4.6
5.4
6.8
8.2
9.2
9.8
11.2
12.3
12.2
12.7
15.6
18.3
17.8
17.6
Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate.
Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: Adapted from U.S. House of Representatives 1978.
75
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TABLE A-4
U.S. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES
Female Participation Rate
(Percent)
Age Group 1947 1977
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and over
44.9
32.0
36.3
32.7
24.3
8.1
65.0
49.0
59.2
55.4
41.3
8.3
Male Participation Rate
(Percent)
Age Group 1947 1977
45-54 95.5 91.1
55-64 89.6 74.0
65 and over 47.8 19.7
Note: Based on total labor force.
Source: Adapted from Sternlieb 1978.
76
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TABLE A-5
U.S. EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION AND SEX
Employment
(Millions)
1972
Occupation
White-Collar Workers
Professional, Technical and
Kindred
Managers and Administrators,
Except Farm
Sales Workers
Clerical and Kindred Workers
Blue-Collar Workers
Craft and Kindred Workers
Operatives, Except Transport
Transport Equipment Operatives
Laborers, Except Farm
Farm Workers
Farmers and Farm Managers
Farm Laborers and Supervisors
Service Workers
Service Workers, Except
Private Household
Private Household Workers
All Occupations
Male
20.18
6.96
6.62
3.13
3.47
23.80
10.42
6.35
3.08
3.95
2.53
1.59
0.94
4.13
4.09
0.03
50.63
Female
18.92
4.50
1.41
2.23
10.78
4.78
0.38
3.99
0.13
0.27
0.54
0.10
0.44
6.84
5.43
1.40
31.07
1978
Male
22.63
8.16
7.74
3.29
3.44
25.77
11.69
6.55
3.28
4.24
2.29
1.35
0.94
4.80
4.78
0.03
55.49
Female
24.57
6.08
2.36
2.66
13.46
5.77
0.70
4.32
0.26
0.49
0.51
0.13
0.38
8.04
6.90
1.14
38.88
Note: Civilian noninstitutional population. Apparent data discrepancies due to
rounding.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1978.
77
-------
00
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1972.
FIGURE A-1
CENSUS REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES
-------
TABLE A-6
REGIONAL MIGRATION FOR THE U.S. POPULATION
Percent of Those Who Moved Between Regions
by Region of Destination, 1975-1978
Region of Origin
U.S. Migrants
Northeast
North Central
South
West
Total
Elderly U.S. Migrantsb
Northeast
North Central
South
West
Total
Total Number
of Migrants3
1975-1978
(Thousands)
5,134
7,593
9,282
6,125
28,134
295
309
317
255
1,176
Approximate Number
Who Moved Between
Regions
1975-1978
1,576.14
2,171.6
1,865.68
1,525.13
7,146.04
112.99
88.07
52.94
47.94
302.23
Northeast
—
11.4
23.8
12.0
12.3
—
6.8
32.1
12.5
9.6
North Central
17.7
—
37.8
32.7
20.8
7.1
—
43.4
35.4
15.9
South
57.3
52.6
—
55.3
40.3
77.0
46.6
—
52.1
50.7
West
25.0
36.3
38.4
—
26.6
15.9
46.6
24.5
—
23.7
— Represents zero or rounds to zero
aAll persons age 3 or over who moved across at least a county line.
^Migrants age 65 or over.
Source: Adapted from Biggar 1979.
-------
TABLE A-7
REGIONAL POPULATION AND RATE OF GROWTH
Population
(Millions)
Region
Northeast
New England
Middle Atlantic
North Central
East North Central
West North Central
South
South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central
West
Mountain
Pacific
U.S. Total
1975
49.5
12.2
37.3
57.6
40.9
16.7
68.0
33.7
13.5
20.9
37.9
9.6
28.3
213.0
2000
53.2
14.4
38.7
63.3
44.4
18.9
92.4
47.9
16.7
27.8
51.0
14.7
36.3
259.9
Percent of
1975
23.3
5.7
17.5
27.1
19.2
7.8
31.9
15.8
6.3
9.8
17.8
4.5
13.3
100.0
Population
2000
20.5
5.6
14.9
24.4
17.1
7.3
35.6
18.5
6.4
10.7
19.6
5.7
14.0
100.0
Average Annual
Rate of Change
(Percent)
1975 to 2000
0.3
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.5
1.2
1.4
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.7
0.9
0.8
Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate. Discrepancies between this table
and Table A-l due to data differences in the source.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b.
80
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gained population at the expense of the Northeast and North
Central census regions.
A.1.5 Local Migration (Table A-8)
o In addition to these general regional variations, there have
been significant changes in urban/rural population shifts.
The movement from rural to metropolitan areas that predomin-
ated during the 1960s has undergone a noticeable reversal
resulting in what has generally been referred to as the
"rural renaissance."
o The average annual rate of change between 1970 and 1978 was
higher for nonmetropolitan areas (1.4 percent) than metro-
politan areas (0.5 percent). The number of persons living
in central cities actually declined during that time period.
A. 2 Division Profiles
Population profiles are presented in this Appendix for the South
Atlantic, Middle Atlantic and Mountain divisions to provide back-
ground for the comparative discussion that was presented in Section
3. Brief highlights of the data are followed by detailed tabulations
for each region.
A.2.1 South Atlantic Census Division
A.2.1.1 Population Growth (Table A-9)
o Population is expected to more than double in the South
Atlantic Census Division during the last half of this
century, rising from approximately 21 million in 1950 to
almost 50 million by the year 2000.
o The division's rate of growth will slow slightly from
19.1 percent during the 1970s to 16.9 and 12.2 percent for
the 1980s and 1990s, respectively.
o Florida is expected to experience the largest increase in
population, reaching over 14 million by the end of the cen-
tury. This compares to about 2.8 million in 1950 and
approximately 4.6 million today. The annual rate of growth
will decline from the current decade's 27.1 percent to 17.9
percent between 1990 and the year 2000.
81
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TABLE A-8
U.S. POPULATION BY METROPOLITAN
AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS
Population
(Millions)
Area
Metropolitan Areas
In Central Cities
Outside Central Cities
Nonmetropolitan Areas
Total
1970
137.1
62.9
74.2
62.8
199.8
1978
143.0
59.7
83.3
70.4
213.5
Population
Change
(Millions)
1970-1978
6.0
-3.2
9.1
7.7
13.6
Percent
Change
1960-1970
16.6
6.5
26.7
6.8
13.3
1970-1978
4.4
-5.0
12.3
12.2
6.8
Average
Percent
1960-1970
1.5
0.6
2.4
0.7
1.3
Annual
Change
1970-1978
0.5
-0.6
1.5
1.4
0.8
Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1978.
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TABLE A-9
POPULATION AND GROWTH BY DECADE:
SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION
CO
u>
South Atlantic Population
Division 1950
Delaware
Maryland
District of
Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
Note: Population
^Figures for 1980
the United States
318
2,343
802
3,319
2,006
4,062
2,117
3,445
2,771
21,182
Percent Percent
Change Population Change Population
1950-60 1960 1960-70 1970
40.5
32.3
-4.8
19.5
-7.2
12.2
12.5
14.5
78.7
22.6
forecast assumes z 2.
were taken
, 1979.
from Table
446 22.8
3,101 26.5 3
764 -1.0
3,967 17.2 4
1,860 -6.2 1
4,556 11.5 5
2,383 8.7 2
3,943 16.4 4
"4,952 37.1 6
25,972 18.1 30
1 fertility rate and 1970
1 in Current Population
bFigures were taken from Table 3 in Current Population Reports,
548
,922
757
,648
,744
,082
,591
,590
,789
,671
to 1975
Reports ,
No. 796.
Percent Percent
Change Population Change
1970-80 1980a 1980-90
9.5
11.0
-9.5
14.8
5.7
13.9
16.7
15.5
41.5
19.1
migration
No. 796;
600
4,353
685
5,334
1,844
5,790
3,025
5,302
9,607
36,540
trends.
1950 to
8.5
13.2
-5.0
14.7
7.0
13.5
15.5
15.7
27.1
16.9
Average Annual
Percent Rate of Change
Population Change Population 1975-2000°
1990 1990-2000 2000 (Percent)
651
4,928
651
6,117
1,973
6,573
3,494
6,133
12,207
42,727
5.8
10.3
-3.7
10.6
5.2
9.9
11.4
11.5
17.9
12.2
Apparent data discrepancies due
1970 are from
Tables 10 and
13 in
689
5,436
627
6,768
2,076
7,226
3,893
6,840
14,394
47,949
to rounding.
Statistical
6.9
11.0
-5.2
12.1
5.7
11.2
12.8
12.9
21.1
Abstract of
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a, 1979b.
-------
o Maryland and Delaware ranked second and third, respectively,
in rate of growth until 1970. Growth is expected to slow in
these two states for the remainder of the century, however,
and all of the southern states of the division will overtake
those two in growth rate between now and the year 2000.
o District of Columbia statistics reflect a decline in popula-
tion in every decade with the largest decrease of 9.5 percent
occurring between 1970 and 1980. The only other jurisdiction
that lost population was West Virginia in the 1950s and
1960s.
o Average annual rates of change between 1975 and 2000 range
from minus 5.2 percent in the District of Columbia to plus
21.1 percent in Florida.
A.2.1.2 Components of Growth (Table A-10)
o Population growth in the division was primarily a result of
natural increase (births minus deaths) during the 1960s.
Since that time, however, growth attributed to positive net
migration has exceeded natural increase.
o Net migration will continue to be the predominant growth com-
ponent throughout the century even though the positive rate
is projected to decrease slightly.
o The number of deaths is projected to increase in each decade
between 1960 and the year 2000, and to range from about 1.3
million in the 1960s to a high of approximately 4.7 million
between 1990 and 2000.
o Population growth in Florida can be attributed primarily to
positive net migration in every decade that far exceeds the
rate in any other state.
o Deaths are expected to slightly exceed births in Florida dur-
ing the 1990s. Total population will continue to increase,
however, since positive net migration will amount to approx-
imately 2.2 million people.
o A declining population is expected in every decade in the Dis-
trict of Columbia between 1960 and the year 2000 since nega-
tive net migration exceeds natural increase.
o Net migration in West Virginia, North Carolina and South
Carolina will be positive throughout the remainder of the
century after a negative rate during the 1960s.
84
-------
00
TABLE A-10
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE BY DECADE:
SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION
South Atlantic
Division
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
April 1,
Births
109
740
182
909
339
1,032
573
975
1,107
5,965
1960-April 1, 1970a
Deaths
45
303
89
369
190
412
216
379
596
2,598
Net Mig.c
38
385
-100
141
-265
-94
-149
51
1,326
1,332
April 1
Births
92.6
612.3
114.8
793.6
289.6
906.8
511.7
900.4
1,192.8
5,414.6
., 1970- July 1, 1980b
Deaths
50.8
343.7
81.5
420.1
202.7
481.3
247.2
440.8
904.3
3,172.4
Net Mig.
9.7
160.1
-105.2
309.0
13.0
280.5
169.3
254.2
2,527.3
3,617.9
July 1
Births
108.4
764.9
106.5
969.5
303.8
1,019.0
576.5
1,041.5
1,590.6
6,480.7
[, 1980- July 1, 1990
Deaths
56.5
393.2
71.5
488.8
210.3
559.3
288.1
497.3
1,279.4
3,840.4
Net Mig.
-0.5
203.5
-68.8
302.2
34.9
323.1
181.1
287.4
2,284.5
3,547.4
July
Births
101.9
764.2
97.2
969.1
280.4
997.5
560.6
1,036.3
1,686.4
6,489.6
1, 1990- July 1, 2000
Deaths
64.5
459.9
69.6
584.4
228.6
665.8
346.3
578.9
1,712.0
4,706.0
Net Mig.
0.8
204.5
-55.4
270.8
51.4
321.6
184.7
249.0
2,212.5
3,439.9
Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.
aData from Table 12 in Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1979.
^Data computed from Table 4 in Current Population Repojrts^ No. 796. Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends.
cComprises both net immigration from abroad and net interdivlsional or interstate migration according to the area shown. Includes movements of persons
in the armed forces.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce I979b, 1979c.
-------
A.2.1.3 Age Composition (Table A-ll)
o Division statistics generally reflect an aging population
with the percentage of total population under age 5 declining
slightly from a high of 8.4 percent in 1970 to 6.5 percent in
the year 2000.
o Elderly persons will comprise an increasing proportion of the
division's population, reaching a high of 13.5 percent in
2000. This compares to a low of 9.4 percent in 1970.
o Florida has the highest proportion of elderly of any state in
the division. The percentage of total population age 65 and
over increases every decade and ranges from 14.5 percent in
1970 to 19.3 percent in the year 2000.
o In absolute numbers, the elderly population in Florida
reaches approximately 2.8 million in the year 2000. This
compares with 1 million elderly in the state in 1970.
o The proportion of total population age 65 and over in
Maryland and the District of Columbia remains relatively
constant over time.
o Statistics for all other states reflect percentage increases
in elderly population in every decade between 1970 and 2000,
but increases are considerably less than in Florida.
A. 2.1.4 Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Population (Table A-12)
o Population increased in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan
areas of the division between 1960 and 1977.
o Metropolitan areas experienced more rapid growth during the
1960s than they did between 1970 and 1977.
o Conversely, nonmetropolitan areas grew faster between 1970
and 1977 than they did during the previous decade.
o Florida recorded the highest gain in both metropolitan and
nonmetropolitan areas with increases of 3.1 million and
500,000, respectively, between 1960 and 1977.
o West Virginia's population declined in metropolitan and non-
metropolitan areas in the 1960s, but increased slightly in
both kinds of areas between 1970 and 1977.
86
-------
TABLE A-ll
PROJECTIONS OF AGE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION
BY DECADE: SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION
00
South Atlantic
Division
1970
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
1980
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
Under
Number
48.5
344.6
59.8
391.7
138.3
437.5
235.8
421.9
501.6
2,579.7
44.1
298.0
45.5
377.0
131.2
422.3
238.8
420.5
607.3
2,584.7
5 Years
Percent of
Total
8.8
8.8
7.9
8.4
7.9
8.6
9.1
9.2
7.4
8.4
7.3
6.9
6.6
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.9
7.9
6.3
7.1
5-14
Number
117.0
298.0
128.8
930.4
335.7
1,016.7
552.3
952.0
1,250.1
5,581.0
91.9
644.1
95.6
801.4
282.5
907.5
501.9
886.0
1,297.0
5,507.9
Years
Percent of
Total
21.3
7.6
17.0
20.0
19.2
20.0
21.3
20.8
18.4
18.2
15.3
14.8
14.0
15.0
15.3
15.7
16.6
16.7
13.5
15.1
15-64
Number
339.0
2,896.1
497.8
2,962.2
1,076.5
3,218.2
1,612.8
2,848.6
4,054.2
19,505.4
406.6
3,020.3
470.9
3,655.5
1,198.9
3,878.2
2,009.0
3,500.8
6,036.4
24,177.4
Years
Percent of
Total
61.8
73.8
65.8
63.7
61.7
63.3
62.3
62.1
59.7
63.6
67.8
69.4
68.3
68.5
65.0
67.0
66.4
66.0
62.8
66.2
65 Years
Number
43.6
385.2
70.3
367.1
193.7
412.0
189.9
365.4
985.5
3,012.7
57.0
390.2
72.8
500.0
231.5
582.3
275.0
494.5
1,666.5
4,269.8
and Over
Percent of
Total
7.9.
9.8
9.2
7.9
11.1
8.1
7.3
8.0
14.5
9.4
9.5
9.0
10.6
9.4
12.6
10.1
9.1
9.3
17.3
11.7
Total
548.1
3,923.9
756.7
4,651.4
1,744.2
5,084.4
2,590.8
4,587.9
6,791.4
30,678.1
599.6
4,352.6
684.8
5,333.9
1,844.1
5,790.3
3,024.7
5,301.8
9,607.2
36,539.8
-------
TABLE A-ll (Concluded)
00
00
South Atlantic
Division
1990
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
2000
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
Under
Number
53.7
385.2
46.8
476.9
147.0
504.2
283.6
513.7
814.8
3,225.9
48.6
366.0
42.3
452.7
132.9
478.1
267.8
493.0
815.3
3,096.7
5 Years
Percent of
Total
8.2
7.8
7.2
7.8
7.5
7.7
8.1
8.4
6.7
7.5
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.4
6.6
6.9
7.2
5.7
6.5
5-14
Number
96.9
710.2
83.5
871.2
286.2
953.1
538.3
958.7
1,547.5
6,045.6
105.7
812.3
81.1
981.6
299.8
1,042.4
585.0
1,064.6
1,818.6
6,791.1
Years
Percent of
Total
14.9
14.4
12.8
14.2
14.5
14.5
15.4
15.6
12.7
14.1
15.3
14.9
12.9
14.5
14.4
14.4
15.0
15.6
12.6
14.2
15-64
Number
427.4
3,329.5
449.0
4,106.6
1,269.1
4,361.3
2,305.1
4,049.2
7,505.8
27,803.0
454.4
3,703.4
437.5
4,583.0
1,360.2
4,846.1
2,615.5
4,590.8
8,984.4
31,575.3
Years
Percent of
Total
65.6
67.6
69.0
67.1
64.3
66.4
66.0
66.0
61.5
65.1
65.9
68.1
69.8
67.7
65.5
67.1
67.2
67.1
62.4
65.8
65 Years
Number
73.1
502.8
71.7
662.0
270.3
754.4
367.2
611.8
2,338.8
5,652.1
80.7
554.6
66.2
750.9
282.8
859.7
424.9
691.4
2,775.5
6,486.7
and Over
Percent of
Total
11.2
10.2
11.0
10.8
13.7
11.5
10.5
10.0
19.2
13.2
11.7
10.2
10.6
11.1
13.6
11.9
10.9
10.1
19.3
13.5
Total
651.1
4,927.7
651.0
6,116.7
1,972.6
6,573.0
3,494.2
6,133.4
12,206.9
42,726.6
689.4
5,436.3
627.1
6,768.2
2,075.7
7,226.3
3,893.2
6,839.8
14,393.8
47,949.8
Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b.
-------
TABLE A-12
SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION POPULATION
BY METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS
00
Metropolitan
South Atlantic
Division
Delaware
Maryland
Percent
Change
a
1960 1960-70
0
2
.3
.6
District of Columbia 0.8
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
Represents zero
Note: Apparent data
a April
bJuly
2
0
1
1
2
4
15
or rounds
.4
.7
.9
.0
.0
.2
.9
to zero.
discrepancies due
25.5
29.9
-1.0
26.9
-2.6
22.2
18.4
26.6
39.1
26.9
to rounding.
a
1970
0.4
3.4
0.8
3.1
0.7
2.3
1.2
2.6
5.9
20.2
Percent
Change
1970-77
3.3
4.6
-9.5
8.9
0.9
9.1
13.6
10.4
23.6
11.9
b
1977
0.4
3.5
0.7
3.3
0.7
2.5
1.4
2.9
7.3
22.6
a
1960
0.1
0.5
0
1.5
1.2
2.7
1.3
1.9
0.7
10.0
Nonmetropolitan
Percent
Change
1960-70
16.
9.
—
3.
-8.
4.
1.
5.
25.
4.
9
6
-
0
4
2
3
2
8
4
a
1970
0.2
0.6
0
1.6
1.1
2.8
1.4
2.0
0.9
10.4
Percent
Change
1970-77
13.2
10.6
11.1
9.5
8.0
8.9
9.2
31.7
11.2
t
1977
0.2
0.6
0
1.7
1.2
3.0
1.5
2.2
1.2
11.6
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979c.
-------
A.2.1.5 Labor Force Participation (Table A-13)
o The female labor force of the division increased by 3.3 mil-
lion workers between 1960 and 1976 compared to a male labor
force gain of 2.6 million over the same time period.
o Female participation increased rapidly, with the rate rising
from 35.8 percent in 1960 to over 50 percent in 1976. Male
participation increased more slowly, rising from 70.4 percent
to 76.1 percent for those years.
o West Virginia had the lowest labor force participation rates
for both males and females throughout the time period.
o The District of Columbia experienced significantly higher
female participation rates than any of the states, exceeding
the 50 percent level since 1960.
o Florida's participation rates for both males and females were
lower than those of the division in general throughout the
time period.
o This was also true for Virginia in 1960 and 1970, but rates
in that state exceeded regional levels in 1976.
o With the exception of Florida, Virginia and West Virginia,
all states recorded higher male and female participation
rates than the division in general.
A.2.1.6 Employment by Occupation (Table A-14)
o Gains in the percent of total employment by occupational
categories between 1970 and 1976 were highest for managers
and administrators, followed by the professional and tech-
nical category.
o Percentage declines were recorded in the division for oper-
ation, sales, craft and farm workers for those same years.
o Managers and administrators gained in the percent of total
employment in all states except Delaware.
o Conversely, percentage declines were recorded in all states
for sales workers, craft workers and operations between 1970
and 1976.
o The professional and technical category declined as a per-
centage of the total only in Delaware and West Virginia.
90
-------
TABLE A-13
POPULATION, LABOR FORCE AND PARTICIPATION RATE
BY SEX: SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION
Population3
Labor Force"
Participation Kate
(Percent)
South Atlantic
Division
1960
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
Male
0.1
1.0
0.3
1.4
0.6
1.5
0.8
1.3
1.7
8.8
Female
0.2
1.1
0.3
1.4
0.7
1.6
0.8
1.4
1.8
9.2
Male
0.1
0.8
0.2
0.9
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.9
1.2
6.1
Female
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.6
3.3
Male
75.5
75.4
73.2
68.2
67.8
71.2
71.7
71.7
68.0
70.4
Female
36.1
36.0
51.8
33.8
24.2
37.4
38.2
37.5
34.7
35.8
1970
Delaware 0.2 0.2
Maryland 1.3 1.4
District of Columbia 0.2 0.3
Virginia 1.6 1.6
West Virginia 0.6 0.6
North Carolina 1.7 1.8
South Carolina 0.8 0.9
Georgia 1.5 1.6
Florida 2.3 2.6
Division Total 10.2 11.1
0.4
1.0
0.2
1.1
0.4
1.2
0.6
1.1
7.1
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.7
0.2
0.8
0.4
0.7
1.0
4.7
76.8
75.7
70.9
67.9
66.7
71.3
69.6
72.6
65.2
69.8
43.1
44.2
55.9
42.1
29.4
46.4
45.2
44.6
39.0
42.6
1976
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Virginia
West Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Division Total
0.2
1.4
0.2
1.6
0.6
1.8
0.9
1.6
3.0
11.4
0.2
1.5
0.3
1.9
0.7
2.1
1.0
1.8
3.4
13.0
0.2
1.1
0.2
1.3
0.5
1.5
0.7
1.2
2.0
8.7
0.1
0.8
0.2
1.0
0.3
1.1
0.5
1.0
1.6
6.6
80.2
82.8
75.0
79.6
72.0
79.2
79.6
76.4
68.6
76.1
50.2
53.9
58.8
52.6
38.0
55.3
51.6
51.9
45.9
50.5
Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. Discrepancies between this table and
Table A-14 due to discrepancies in the source.
aPersons age 14 and over for 1960; age 16 and over for 1970 and 1976.
bCivilian labor force.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.
91
-------
TABLE A-14
OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS:
SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION
Total Employed
(Thousands)
by Occupation
and Kindred Workers
Managers and Adminis-
Sales Workers
Clerical Workers
Craft and Kindred Workers
Operatives, Including
Transport
Farm Workers
Service Workers
Total Employed
(Thousands)
by Occupation
Professional, Technical
and Kindred Workers
Managers and Adminis-
Sales Workers
Clerical Workers
Craft and Kindred Workers
Transport
Laborers, Except Farm
Farm Workers
Service Workers
South
1970
11,461
14.0
6.9
17.1
14.2
Atlantic
1976
14,048
14.9
5.9
17.3
12.9
18.4 16.1
3.1 2.8
12.9
West
1970
550
12.5
6.1
14.0
17.4
21.6
6.2
1.6
12.8
13.8
Virginia
1976
679
11.8
5.5
13.9
17.1
18.5
7.8
1.8
13.6
Delaw
1970
221
18.3
6.6
17.9
14.6
15.9
2.1
12.5
are
1976
242
17.8
5.4
17.4
12.8
13.2
1.7
14.9
North Carolina
1970
i,984
11.0
6.0
14.0
14.5
26.3
5.0
4.6
11.0
1976
2,432
11.8
5.0
14.2
12.9
23.6
6.3
3.9
13.3
Maryla
1970
1,539
18.9
7.0
21.2
13.7
13.4
1.4
11.7
nd
1976
i,826
19.9
5.5
20.5
11.9
11.5
0.9
13.2
South Carolina
1970
955
11.5
6.0
12.7
15.2
26.1
5.5
3.6
12.3
1976
i,156
11.5
5.8
14.1
15.0
23.2
5.9
3.6
11.2
District of
1970
335
19.1
3.6
28.5
7.2
8.9
0.3
21.0
Ceor
1970
1,747
12.0
6.9
16.4
13.9
20.9
5.2
3.6
12.8
Columbia
1976
308
23.2
2.9
27.4
7.1
6.5
0.6
18.7
gia
1976
2,033
14.1
6.4
16.7
11.5
17.6
5.7
3.4
13.4
Virglt
1970
1,714
16.0
6.5
17.9
14.2
17.2
2.7
12.1
Flor
1970
2,426
13.8
8.7
17.9
14.5
12.3
5.2
3.2
15.0
lia
1976
2,133
17.0
5.0
17.4
13.9
14.4
3.2
13.4
Ida
1976
3,238
14.3
7.4
18.9
12.8
11. 1
5.0
2.5
15.3
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.
-------
o Clerical workers gained in percent of total in the southern
states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and
Florida, but declined in the remaining states over the
period.
A.2.1.7 Employment by Industry (Table A-15)
o The most significant gain in percent of total employment by
an industrial category in the division was made by the pro-
fessional and related services category, followed by whole-
sale and retail trade between 1970 and 1976.
o Finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE) as well as business
and repair services recorded gains in the states, while all
other industrial categories declined during the six-year time
period.
o In all South Atlantic Division states except West Virginia,
the percent of total employed in professional and related
services rose between 1970 and 1976.
o While employment in wholesale and retail trade increased in
the division as a whole, Maryland, Virginia and the District
of Columbia each experienced a decline in that category's
percent of total employment.
o Agriculture, forestry and fisheries declined in Virginia,
West Virginia and South Carolina, while increasing in the
region in general.
o The business and repair services category increased its share
of total employment in every state except Delaware between
1970 and 1976.
A.2.2 Mountain Census Division
A.2.2.1 Population Growth (Table A-16)
o Population in the Mountain Census Division is projected to
almost triple during the last half of the century, increasing
from the 1950 level of approximately 5 million to about 14.7
million in the year 2000. The rate of increase is expected
to slow, however, declining from the 29.4 percent of the
1970s to 20.7 percent in the 1980s and 13.9 percent in the
1990s.
93
-------
TABLE A-15
INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYED PERSONS
SOUTH ATLANTIC DIVISION
South Atlantic
Total Employed
(Thousands)
Percent Distribution
by Industry
Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, Communication
and Public Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance and
Real Estate
Business and Repair Services
Personal, Entertainment and
Recreation Services
Professional and Related
Services
Public Administration
1970
11,461
3.8
0.8
7.2
24.0
6.6
19.3
4.5
2.9
6.8
16.3
7.6
1976
14,048
3.
0.
6.
21.
6.
20.
5.
3.
5.
19.
7.
6
7
4
6
2
3
2
5
9
2
5
Delaware
1970
211
2.6
0.1
7.6
29.6
5.9
19.1
4.4
3.6
5.1
17.3
4.4
1976
242
2.1
7.0
26.8
5.8
21.5
4.5
2.5
6.2
18.6
5.0
Maryland
1970
1,539
1.9
0.2
6.6
19.4
6.9
19.1
5.1
3.5
4.7
19.0
13.5
1976
1,826
1.5
0.1
6.2
15.8
6.0
18.9
5.4
4.2
5.4
21.9
14.5
District of
1970
335
0.5
0.1
4.8
4.8
6.2
14.3
5.1
3.8
9.8
23.3
27.1
Columbia
1976
308
0.3
3.9
4.5
4.9
14.0
5.5
5.8
7.1
26.9
27.3
Virginia
1970
1,714
3.3
1.0
7.4
22.4
6.7
18.0
4.4
2.6
5.9
16.9
11.4
1976
3,133
3.9
0.4
7.0
20.2
6.8
17.3
4.6
3.0
6.0
19.9
10.7
-------
TABLE A-15 (Concluded)
Ui
Total Employed
(Thousands)
Percent Distribution
by Industry
Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation, Communication
and Public Utilities
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance and
Real Estate
Business and Repair Services
Personal, Entertainment and
Recreation Services
Professional and Related
Services
Public Administration
West
1970
550
2.
8.
7.
23.
7.
19.
2.
2.
15.
17.
4.
Virginia
1
8
3
4
9
1
7
0
5
5
1
1976
679
2.2
9.8
7.3
19.1
7.0
20.1
3.5
2.1
5.7
17.5
5.6
North Carolina
1970
1,984
5.2
0.2
6.7
35.4
5.5
17.5
3.5
2.1
6.0
14.3
3.5
1976
2,432
4.
0.
6.
32.
4.
18.
4.
3.
3.
17.
4.
4
2
0
8
7
8
9
0
9
1
1
South Carolina
1970
955
4.2
0.2
7.4
36.2
4.8
16.7
3.3
2.0
7.1
14.4
3.9
1976
1,156
4.
0.
6.
35.
4.
17.
4.
2.
5.
16.
4.
5
2
2
0
8
3
0
8
1
1
1
1970
1,747
4.
0.
6.
36.
7.
19.
4.
2.
7.
14.
5.
Georgia
3
4
8
2
0
6
6
7
1
6
8
1976
2,033
4.1
0.5
6.0
24.5
6.6
21.3
4.8
3.3
6.1
17.7
5.4
Florida
1970
2,426
4.6
0.4
8.5
13.6
7.7
23.5
6.0
3.8
9.0
16.8
5.6
1976
3,238
3.9
0.2
6.9
12.2
7.1
25.2
6.7
4.1
7.6
20.7
5.3
Represents zero or rounds to zero.
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.
-------
TABLE A-16
POPULATION AND GROWTH BY DECADE:
MOUNTAIN DIVISION
Mountain Population
Division
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
Note: Population
aFigures for 1980
1950
591
589
291
1,325
681
750
689
160
5,075
Percent Percent
Change Population Change Population
1950-60
14.2
13.3
13.6
32.4
39.6
73.7
29.3
78.2
35.1
forecast assumes a 2.1
were taken from Table
1960 1960-70 1970
675 2.9
667 6.8
330 0.7
1,754 25.8 2
951 6.8 1
1,302 36.0 1
891 18.9 1
285 71.3
6,855 20.8 8
fertility rate and 1970
1 in Current Population
694
713
332
,207
,016
,771
,059
489
,282
to 1975
Reports ,
Average Annual
Percent Percent Percent Rate of Change
Change Population Change Population Change Population 1975-2000b
1970-80
14.0
25.2
22.9
27.9
22.9
45.0
24.7
35.4
29.4
migration
No. 796;
1980a
791
893
408
2,823
1,249
2,568
1,321
662
10,715
trends.
1950 to
1980-90 1990 1990-2000 2000 (Percent)
13.0
18.8
16.2
20.8
17.4
27.0
18.9
20.8
20,7
894
1,061
474
3,409
1,466
3,261
1,571
800
12,936
4.3
12.6
11.2
14.2
11.6
17.2
13.0
13.5
13.9
Apparent data discrepancies due
1970 are from Tables 10 and 13 in
477
1,195
527
3,892
1,636
3,822
1,775
908
14,732
to rounding.
Statistical Abstract
10.6
15.0
13.2
16.5
13.9
20.8
15.2
16.6
of the
United States, 1979.
^Figures were taken from Table 3 in Current Population Reports,
No. 796.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c.
-------
o Arizona is expected to record the most rapid increase of any
state in the division over the 50-year period, followed by
Nevada. The population projected for the year 2000 is more
than five times the 1950 level for both states.
o Colorado ranks third in terms of overall population increase
and is projected to make considerable advances during the
1980s and 1990s. Growth during those decades amounts to 20.8
percent and 14.2 percent, respectively. This results in
Colorado ranking second only to Arizona in percent change
between 1980 and 2000.
o Colorado, Arizona and Nevada are projected to gain population
more rapidly than the division as a whole between now and the
end of the century.
o Montana statistics reflect the lowest growth rate, followed
by Wyoming and New Mexico.
A.2.2.2 Components of Growth (Table A-17)
o Population increases in the division during the 1960s were
primarily attributed to natural increase (births minus
deaths). This trend reversed between 1970 and 1980, however,
> when positive net migration exceeded natural increase and
became the dominant factor influencing population growth.
o Positive net migration is projected to slow between now and
the end of the century, however, resulting in the trend again
reversing and natural increase becoming the dominant growth
factor.
o Births are expected to stabilize at about 2.2 million in the
1980s and 1990s, with deaths increasing from just under 1
million to about 1.2 million over the same time period.
o Colorado, Arizona and Nevada were the only states in the
division to record positive net migration in the 1960s. All
others experienced negative net migration. Since 1970, how-
ever, all states have recorded positive net migration and
this trend is expected to continue through 2000.
o Colorado is expected to record the highest number of births
in every decade between 1960 and the year 2000, while Arizona
is projected to experience the highest death counts over the
same time period.
97
-------
TABLE A-17
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE BY DECADE:
MOUNTAIN DIVISION
CO
Mountain
Division
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
April 1,
Births
144
146
70
401
263
365
245
91
1,724
Note: Figures may not add to
aData from Table 12
^Data computed from
1960-April 1
, 1970a April 1, 1970- July
Deaths Net Mig. Births Deaths
66
58
28
163
68
122
65
31
602
totals due to
in Statistical Abstract
Table 4 In
-58
-42
-39
215
-130
228
-11
144
307 1,
rounding.
of the United
Current Population Reports
124.2 69.5
154.1 67.2
65.3 31.9
422.0 188.5
222.2 84.1
410.8 179.4
289.8 78.0
95.9 45.8
784.3 744.4
States, 1979.
, No. 796. Popu
1, 1980b
Net Mig.
38.6
93.2
42.3
379.8
94.0
560.7
49.4
123.7
1,381.7
lation forec
July 1, 1980- July
Births
147.0
184.6
77.5
552.1
267.2
541.5
339.4
123.3
2,232.6
:ast assumes
Deaths
77.0
81.2
37.1
226.6
108.7
259.0
95.4
65.6
950.6
1, 1990
Net Mig.
33.0
64.2
25.7
261.0
58.4
410.7
6.6
79.3
938.3
a 2.1 fertility rate
July 1,
Births
138.3
178.3
74.2
562.0
254.6
561.1
333.0
124.8
2,226.3
and 1970
1990-July
Deaths
90.8
101.1
45.5
284.0
139.1
350.0
118.3
87.1
1,215.9
1, 2000
Net Mig.
36.2
57.3
24.1
204.3
54.0
349.8
-11.2
70.9
785.4
to 1975 migration
trends.
GComprises both net immigration from abroad and net interdivisional or interstate migration according to the area shown. Includes movements of
persons in the armed forces.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c.
-------
o Arizona is projected to have the highest positive net migra-
tion and to follow Colorado closely in number of births in
every decade.
o Utah is projected to rank third in the number of births in
the 1980s and 1990s. Positive net migration, however, is
expected to be lower there than in any other state between
1980 and 1990 and to become negative during the 1990s.
A.2.2.3 Age Composition (Table A-18)
o Population statistics in the division reflect an aging trend
with those age 65 and over projected to increase from 8.4
percent of the total in 1970 to 11.5 percent in the year
2000. Over the same time period, the portion under age 5 is
expected to decline from 9 percent to 7.2 percent.
o Nevada's elderly comprised the largest share of a state's
population in 1970 at 6.3 percent, but the state is projected
to rank second in this regard by 2000. About 12.8 percent of
the total state population will be age 65 or over at that
time.
o Arizona's population is projected to include a higher per-
centage of the elderly than any other state in 1980, 1990 and
2000, while Utah is expected to have the lowest percentage.
o The under age 5 category is expected to make up a higher per-
cent of the total population in Utah than in any other state
for every year recorded. Nevada statistics reflect the low-
est percentage in that age group, except in 1970 when Montana
had the lowest percent.
o In absolute terms, Arizona is projected to record the great-
est number of elderly beginning in 1980 and reaching a high
of 517,000 in 2000. This would be 13.5 percent of the total
state population in that year.
A.2.2.4 Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Population (Table A-19)
o Population increased in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan
areas of the division between 1960 and 1977.
o Metropolitan areas increased at a relatively constant rate
throughout that time period. Nonmetropolitan areas, however,
increased more rapidly between 1970 and 1977 than they did
during the 1960s.
99
-------
TABLE A-18
PROJECTIONS OF AGE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION
BY DECADE: MOUNTAIN DIVISION
o
o
Mountain
Division
1970
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
1980
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
Under
Number
57.1
63.9
28.4
186.6
96.8
.159.1
111.9
43.9
747.7
58.8
73.7
31.1
212.3
104.5
208.4
134.3
48.1
871.2
5 Years
Percent of
Total
8.2
9.0
8.5
8.4
9.5
9.0
10.6
9.0
9.0
7.4
8.3
7.6
7.5
8.4
8.1
10.2
7.3
8.1
5-14
Number
151.0
152.7
70.5
458.6
242.4
380.0
240.9
100.3
1,796.4
122.6
149.2
64.2
428.5
212.8
417.5
250.3
105.8
1,750.9
Years
Percent of
Total
21.7
21.4
21.2
20.8
23.8
21.4
22.7
20.5
21.7
15.5
16.7
15.7
15.2
17.0
16.3
19.0
16.0
16.3
15-64
Number
417.8
429.0
203.4
1,377.3
607.6
1,075.1
629.5
313.7
5,053.4
523.9
577.3
274.2
1,940.7
819.8
1,652.6
830.1
449.0
7,067.6
Years3
Percent of
Total
60.2
60.2
61.2
62.3
59.7
60.6
59.4
64.2
61.0
66.3
64.6
67.2
68.7
65.6
64.4
62.9
67.8
66.0
65 Years
Number
68.5
67.4
30.1
187.1
70.3
161.2
77.0
30.8
692.4
85.4
92.8
38.6
241.4
112.0
289.0
105.8
59.5
1,024.5
and Over
Percent of
Total
9.9
9.5
9.1
8.5
6.9
9.1
7.3
6.3
8.4
10.8
10.4
9.5
8.6
9.0
11.3
8.0
9.0
9.6
Total
694.4
713.0
332.4
2,209.6
1,017.1
1,775.4
1,059.3
488.7
8,289.4
790.7
893.0
408.1
2,822.9
1,249.1
2,567.5
1,320.5
662.4
10,714.2
-------
TABLE A-18 (Concluded)
Mountain
Division
1990
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
2000
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
Under
Number
71.7
90.9
38.1
278.9"
129.4
275.3
164.2
62.7
1,111.2
65.2
84.2
35.2
268.7
118.5
269.4
155.3
59.8
1,056.3
5 Years
Percent of
Total
8.0
8.6
8.0
8.2
8.8
8.4
10.5
7.8
8.6
6.7
7.0
6.7
6.9
7.2
7.0
8.8
6.6
7.2
5-14
Number
134.9
169.4
71.0
500.6
238.0
506.2
289.3
119.3
2,028.7
147.9
188.4
78.5
577.3
263.4
588.5
321.0
136.4
2,301.4
Years
Percent of
Total
15.1
16.0
15.0
14.7
16.2
15.5
18.4
14.9
15.7
15.1
15.8
14.9
14.8
16.1
15.4
18.1
15.0
15.6
15-64
Number
579.0
678.1
313.6
2,308.6
940.5
2,053.1
979.7
524.6
8,377.2
645.0
783.1
351.8
2,661.7
1,060.0
2,446.8
1,139.6
595.9
9,683.9
Years3
Percent of
Total
64.8
63.9
66.1
67.7
64.2
63.0
62.4
65.6
64.8
66.0
65.5
66.7
68.4
64.8
64.0
64.2
65.6
65.7
65 Years
Number
108.1
122.2
51.6
321.3
158.1
426.1
137.8
92.9
1,418.1
119.3
139.6
61.6
383.8
193.6
517.0
158.6
116.1
1,689.6
and Over
Percent of
Total
12.1
11.5
10.9
9.4
10.8
13.1
8.8
11.6
11.0
12.2
11.7
11.7
9.9
11.8
13.5
8.9
12.8
11.5
Total
893.7
1,060.6
474.3
3,409.4
1,466.0
3,260.7
1,571.0
799.5
12,935.2
977.4
1,195.3
527.1
3,891.5
1,635.5
3,821.7
1,774.5
908.2
14,731.2
Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends.
aComputed from data in Table 6, Current Population Report, No. 796.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b.
-------
TABLE A-19
MOUNTAIN DIVISION POPULATION
BY METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS
Mountain
Division
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
I—1 New Mexico
j^j Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
Metropolitan
Nonmetropolitan
Percent Change Percent Change
I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b
152
93
1,326
276
929
683
212
3,672
11.0
20.1
34.0
20.6
42.4
23.4
86.2
34.8
169
112
1,776
333
1,323
843
394
4,951
10.3
28.9
X
19.1
20.7
31.8
18.5
31.3
23.4
187
145
X
2,116
402
1,743
1,000
518
6,110
Percent Change Percent Change
I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b
522
574
330
428
675
373
207
74
3,183
0.6
4.7
0.7
1.1
1.4
21.3
4.3
28.4
4.9
525
601
332
433
684
453
216
94
3,338
10.
18.
22.
17.
16.
30.
25.
26.
19.
3
4
1
6
1
8
2
2
2
579
711
406
509
794
592
270
119
3,981
Represents zero or rounds to zero. X = Not appropriate
Note: Apparent data discrepancies due to rounding.
aApril
bJuly
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979c.
-------
o Nevada recorded the highest percentage change of any state in
population of both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas
between 1960 and 1970. Arizona, however, surpassed Nevada
between 1970 and 1977 in terms of percent increase, recording
the highest change.
o Montana statistics reflect the lowest percentage increase in
population of all states for both metropolitan and non-
metropolitan areas throughout the time period.
A. 2.2.5 Labor Force Participation (Table A-20)
o The female labor force in the division increased by slightly
more than 1 million workers between 1960 and 1976, compared
to a male labor force gain of approximately 900,000.
o The female participation rate rose from 33.1 percent in 1960
to 49.7 percent in 1976, while male participation increased
from 74.6 percent to 80.1 percent.
o New Mexico recorded the lowest participation rates of any
state for both males and females in 1960 and 1970. In 1976,
however, female participation surpassed that of Arizona,
while male participation remained the lowest of any state.
o Female participation was higher in Nevada than in any other
state in the division for all years recorded, reaching 56.1
percent in 1976. However, male participation was highest in
Utah in 1960, Nevada in 1970 and Wyoming in 1976.
o In 1976, Arizona, Colorado and Wyoming recorded female par-
ticipation rates higher than the division level of 49.7 per-
cent. Rates in all other states were lower than that level.
o Male participation rates in 1976 were higher than the divi-
sion rate of 80.1 percent in all states except Montana, New
Mexico and Arizona.
o Arizona and New Mexico were the only two states with both
female and male participation rates below the division levels
in every year recorded.
A.2.2.6 Employment by Occupation (Table A-21)
o The largest percentage increase in employment among occupa-
tion categories in the division between 1970 and 1976 was
realized by the managers and administration group.
103
-------
TABLE A-20
POPULATION, LABOR FORCE AND PARTICIPATION RATE
BY SEX: MOUNTAIN DIVISION
Population3
Labor Forcec
Partlcipation Rate
(Percent)
Mountain
Division
1960
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
Male
234
226
115
595
305
435
281
105
2,295
Female
225
222
109
617
302
436
290
97
2,297
Male
175
176
90
440
215
314
221
80
1,711
Female
73
71
37
212
91
140
94
40
760
Male
74.8
77.9
78.3
73.9
70.5
72.2
78.6
76.2
74.6
Female
32.4
32.0
33.9
34.4
30.1
32.1
32.4
41.2
33.1
1970
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
1976
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Utah
Nevada
Division Total
233
236
112
737
316
578
330
170
2,713
260
282
131
862
371
759
391
209
3,265
238
243
114
779
336
617
351
165
2,842
274
294
138
948
422
833
416
221
3,546
169
177
84
531
219
401
254
131
1,966
208
232
109
713
281
577
322
173
2,614
92
95
46
331
124
240
145
78
1,150
133
141
71
511
199
381
202
124
1,762
72.5
75.0
75.0
72.0
69.3
69.4
77.0
77.1
72.5
80.0
82.3
83.2
82.7
75.7
76.0
82.4
82.8
80.1
38,
39.
40.
42.
38
41
47
36.9
40.5
48.5
48.0
51.4
53.9
47.2
45.7
48.6
56.1
49.7
Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. Discrepancies between this table and
Table A-30 due to discrepancies in the source.
aPersons age 14 and over for 1960; age 16 and over for 1970 and 1976.
Civilian labor force.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.
104
-------
TABLE A-21
OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS:
MOUNTAIN DIVISION
Mountain
1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976
Total Employed
(Thousands)
Percent Distribution
by Occupation
2,964 4,050 245 319 257 351 123 174 826 1,142 323 437 614 860 379 493 198 274
Professional, Technical
and Kindred Workers 16.6 16.2 14.3 12.6 13.6 13.1 15.3 14.5 17.9 17.2 19.0 18.9 16.6 17.4 17.2 16.8 14.2 12.8
Managers and Adminis-
° trators, Except Farm 9.7 11.9 10.2 10.7 9.7 U.I 11.3 12.7 9.6 12.2 9.7 11.6 9.6 11.9 9.2 12.0 10.2 13.2
Sales Workers 7.0 6.7 6.6 5.7 6.6 6.3 5.6 5.2 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.8 7.2 7.0 6.3 5.7 5.5
Clerical Workers 17.0 18.1 14.3 15. i 13.2 14.8 14.5 15.6 18.6 19.1 16.4 18.9 17.2 19.5 18.5 17.4 16.9 18.6
Craft and Kindred
Workers 13.3 13.1 12.7 13.2 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.5 12.5 12.4 13.3 13.4 14.0 12.9 14.5 15.4 13.3 11.0
Operatives , Including
Transport 12.4 10.5 11.1 9.1 14.3 12.5 12.1 10.4 11.9 10.6 12.2 9.8 13.6 10.5 13.5 11.8 9.2 7.3
Laborers, Except Farm 4.4 5.2 4.5 5.7 5.4 6.0 4.0 4.6 4.0 5.1 4.5 5.2 4.8 5.3 4.3 5.5 3.8 3.7
Farmworkers 5.0 4.1 11.5 12.3 11.2 11.1 8.9 8.1 3.9 2.9 3.8 2.5 2.9 2.0 3.1 2.2 1.9 1.1
Service Workers 14.5 14.2 14.8 15.7 13.2 12.3 14.5 14.5 13.9 13.5 14.7 12.8 13.6 13.4 12.7 12.6 24.7 26.7
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.
-------
o Clerical workers recorded the second largest increase during
that time period, followed by laborers. All other categor-
ies, including professional and technical workers, recorded
declines in percent of total employment with operatives
declining the most.
o Professional and technical workers declined as a percentage
of the division total, but the category increased as a per-
cent of the total in Arizona between 1970 and 1976. It
declined in all other states.
o Other changes that reflect opposite trends from that of the
division in general are the increase in sales workers in New
Mexico, the decrease in clerical workers in Utah and the
increase in laborers in Montana. Service workers also
increased as a percent of the total employed in Montana and
Nevada, while declining in all other states.
A.2.2.7 Employment by Industry (Table A-22)
o The largest gain in percent of total employment by an indus-
trial category in the division between 1970 and 1976 was made
by FIRE, followed by wholesale and retail trade. Construc-
tion and business and repair services also reflected slight
increases during that time period. All other industrial cat-
egories recorded declines in percent of total employment.
o Mining was the only industrial category that reflected a con-
sistent decline throughout the division between 1970 and
1976. It decreased in percent of total employment in every
state.
o Conversely, FIRE recorded consistent percentage increases,
gaining in every state in the division during the same time
period.
o Business and repair service declined only in New Mexico.
This was in contrast to the increasing trend in all other
states and the division as a whole.
A.2.3 Middle Atlantic Census Division
A.2.3.1 Population Growth (Table A-23)
o The Middle Atlantic Census Division's population is expected
to increase from the 30 million recorded in 1950 to about
38.5 million in 2000.
106
-------
TABLE A-22
INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYED PERSONS:
MOUNTAIN DIVISION
Mountain
Total Employed
(Thousands)
Percent Distribution
by Industry
Agriculture, Forestry
and Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
1970
2,964
5.9
2.9
6.8
12.7
1976
4,050
5.5
2.3
7.3
11.5
Montana
1970 1976
245 319
13.4 14.1
2.4 1.9
6.4 6.3
9.6 8.1
Idaho
1970
257
13.0
1.5
6.5
14.7
1976
351
13.6
1.4
7.6
15.0
Wyoming
1970 1976
123 174
10.0 9.2
9.0 8.7
6.9 10.4
6.5 5.2
Colorado
1970
826
4.6
1.7
6.6
14.5
1976
1,142
4.1
1.6
7.3
13.8
New Mexico
1970
323
4.8
5.6
7.4
6.6
1976
437
3.4
3.9
8.7
7.8
Arizona
1970
614
4.0
3.1
7.6
15.7
1976
860
3.4
2.2
5.8
12.7
Utah
1970 1976
379 493
3.8 3.0
3.0 2.4
5.5 8.1
14.6 13.2
Nev2
1970
198
2.4
1.9
8.2
5.1
Ida
1976
274
1.8
0.7
6.6
5.5
Transportation,
Communication and
Public Utilities
Wholesale and Retail
Trade
Finance, Insurance
and Real Estate
Business and
Repair Services
Personal, Entertain-
ment and Recreation
Services
Professional and
Related Services
Public Administration
7.1 6.5 8.0 8.2 7.1 5.7 8.9 7.5 7.4 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.1 5.1 6.7 7.3 7.8 7.4
21.7 22.6 22.3 21.6 22.7 21.5 20.3 20.2 22.3 23.2 21.0 23.6 21.9 23.5 21.6 22.3 19.1 20.6
4.8 6.3 3.9 4.7 3.9 4.8 3.3 4.0 5.6 7.3 4.1 5.5 5.7 8.3 4.2 5.3 4.2 4.8
3.6 4.1 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.0 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.9 5.3 4.8 3.7 4.9 2.7 3.4 5.2 4.4
7.3 7.3 5.8 6.0 5.5 4.8 6.8 6.4 5.8 6.2 6.7 5.3 6.6 6.4 4.9 5.3 24.5 26.5
19.8 19.2 19.9 19.7 16.5 16.7 19.4 19.7 21.3 19.1 22.7 22.2 19.3 20.3 20.0 19.3 14.2 14.0
7.4 7.3 5.9 6.6 5.1 4.8 6.3 5.8 6.6 7.1 8.9 8.0 6.4 7.4 12.6 10.1 7.3 7.7
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of'Commerce 1979a.
-------
TABLE A-23
POPULATION AND GROWTH BY DECADE:
MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
o
CO
Average Annual
Middle
Atlantic
Division
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
Population
1950
14,830
4,835
10,498
30,164
Percent
Change
1950-60
13.2
25.5
7.8
13.3
Population
1960
16,782
6,067
11,319
34,168
Percent
Change
1960-70
8.7
18.2
4.2
8.9
Population
1970
18,237
7,168
11,794
37,199
Percent
Change
1970-80
-1.9
4.5
0.8
0.2
Population
1980a
17,902
7,492
11,884
37,278
Percent
Change
1980-90
0.5
6.9.
2.6
2.5
Population
1990
17,995
8,010
12,191
38,196
Percent
Change
1990-2000
-0.2
5.2
1.0
1.3
Population
2000
17,961
8,425
12,317
38,703
Rate of Change
1975-2000b
(Percent)
-0.3
5.5
1.5
Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends. Apparent data discrepancies due to rounding.
aFlgures for 1980 were taken from Table 1 in Current Population Reports, No. 796; 1950 to 1970 are from Tables 10 and 13 In Statistical Abstract of the
United States, 1979.
^Figures were taken from Table 3 in Current Population Reports, No. 796.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c.
-------
o The highest rate of change occurred in the 1950s, with a 13.3
percent increase, followed by an 8.9 percent increase between
1960 and 1970.
o Growth is projected to remain under 3 percent per decade
between now and the year 2000, with the population increasing
by only about 1.4 million people by the end of the century.
o New York experienced a population decline in the 1970s and
another slight decrease is expected between 1990 and the year
2000. This would result in an overall decline by the end of
the century of about 276,000 people from the peak of 18.2
million reached in 1970.
o Pennsylvania has recorded the most stable population of the
division in the past, and only slight increases are projected
through the remainder of the century. Over the entire 50-
year period, the state is expected to experience a population
increase of only about 1.8 million people.
o New Jersey projections reflect the most rapid growth, with
the population expected to increase by approximately 3.6 mil-
lion over the 1950 level of about 4.8 million. This would
result in a total population of 8.4 million by 2000.
o Average annual rates of change between 1975 and 2000 range
from minus 0.3 percent in New York to plus 5.5 percent in
New Jersey.
A.2.3.2 Components of Growth (Table A-24)
o Negative net migration is expected for the division in every
decade from 1970 to the year 2000. Births are also projected
to decline in number from about 6 million in the 1980s to
approximately 5.6 million between 1990 and 2000.
o All three states recorded negative net migration during the
1970s. This trend is expected to continue in New York and
Pennsylvania, with New York projected to have the highest
negative rate. However, an opposite trend is expected in New
Jersey, with net migration there projected to be positive
throughout the remainder of the century.
o The number of births per decade is projected to be greater
in all states in the 1980s than the number between 1970 and
1980. This trend is expected to be reversed between 1990 and
2000, however, when the number of births in all states will
be lower than during the current decade. Deaths will
increase slightly over this same time period.
109
-------
TABLE A-24
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE BY DECADE:
MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
Middle Atlantic
Division
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
April 1,
Births
3,361
1,259
2,105
6,725
1960-April 1, 1970a
Deaths
1,852
645
1,252
3,749
Net Mig.
-51
488
-378
59
April 1,
Births
2,614.7
1,046.6
1,679.9
5,341.2
1970-July
Deaths
1,867.1
707.8
1,291.2
3,866.1
1, 1980b
Net Mig.
-1,087.2
-17.9
-305.4
-1,410.5
July 1,
Births
2,887.7
1,247.5
1,875.9
6,011.1
1980-July
Deaths
1,855.9
772.0
1,335.6
3,963.5
1, 1990
Net Mig.
-938.3
42.7
-233.7
-1,129.3
July 1, 1990-July
Births
2,677.8
1,199.6
1,694.0
5,571.4
Deaths
1,864.6
852.8
1,407.8
4,125.2
1, 2000
Net Mig.
-847.3
68.3
-159.4
-938.4
Note: Comprises both net immigration from abroad and net interdivisional or interstate migration according to the area shown. Includes movements of
persons in the armed forces.
aData from Table 12 in Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1979.
^Data computed from Table 4 in Current Population Reports, No. 796. Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration
trends.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b, 1979c.
-------
A.2.3.3 Age Composition (Table A-25)
o Division population statistics reflect an aging trend. The
percent of the total population in the age 65 and over cate-
gory is expected to increase every decade, from a low of 10.5
percent in 1970 to a high of 12.8 percent in the year 2000.
o The size of the group under age 5 fluctuates over time, but
reflects a general declining trend through 2000 when the
annual decrease is expected to reach 6.8 percent. This is
slightly higher than the current 6.6 percent, but still below
the 1970 high of 8.1 percent.
o Pennsylvania is projected to experience the largest increase
in elderly population, which reaches 13.9 percent of the
total in the year 2000. This compares to 10.7 percent in
1970 and the current level of 12.7 percent. The under age 5
population also reaches a lower level in Pennsylvania than in
the other two states, dropping to 6.4 percent in 2000.
o Projections for New York and New Jersey show percentage
increases for the elderly through 1990, but the percent of
total population age 65 and over decreases slightly in the
year 2000 for both states.
A.2.3.4 Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Population (Table A-26)
o Metropolitan population in the division increased during the
1960s but declined between 1970 and 1977.
o Nonmetropolitan population, however, continued to increase
throughout the time period, reaching a high of 5 million in
1977. This compares to 4.3 million in 1960 and 4.6 million
in 1970.
o All states recorded increases in metropolitan population
between 1960 and 1970. Only New Jersey, however, continued
this positive trend to 1977. New York and Pennsylvania both
experienced declines in metropolitan population after 1970.
o Nonmetropolitan population increased in all states from 1960
to 1977.
A.2.3.5 Labor Force Participation (Table A-27)
o The female labor force in the division increased by 2.4 mil-
lion workers between 1960 and 1976, compared to a male gain
of about 700,000 over the same time period.
Ill
-------
TABLE A-25
PROJECTIONS OF AGE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION
BY DECADE: MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
Middle Atlantic
Division
1970
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
1980
New York
New Jersey
P Pennsylvania
N3
Division Total
1990
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
2000
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
Under 5
Years
Percent of
Numbe r Tot al
1,487.9
589.8
927.1
3,004.8
1,194.5
502.5
781.1
2,478.1
1,408.2
628.7
913.5
2,950.4
1,249.3
573.7
792.3
2,615.3
8.2
8.2
7.8
8.1
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.6
7.8
7.8
7.5
7.7
6.9
6.8
6.4
6.8
5-14 Years
Numbe r
3,393.5
1,404.5
2,253.7
7,051.7
2,626.7
1,126.8
1,705.0
5,458.5
2,542.0
1,164.7
1,694.0
5,400.7
2,714.9
1,300.4
1,788.6
5,803.9
Percent of
Total
18.6
19.6
19.1
18.9
14.7
15.0
14.3
14.6
14.1
14.5
13.9
14.1
15.1
15.4
14.5
15.0
15-64 Years3
Numbe r
11,408.7
4,483.0
7,353.0
23,244.7
11,966.4
5,009.5
7,892.6
24,868.5
11,807.5
5,189.2
7,849.0
24,845.7
11,812.7
5,483.3
8,027.2
25,323.2
Percent of
Total
62.5
62.5
62.3
62.5
66.8
66.9
66.4
66.7
65.6
64.8
64.4
65.0
65.8
65.1
65.2
65.4
65 Years and Over
Percent of
Number Total
1,951.3
693.8
1,267.0
3,912.1
2,114.2
853.3
1,505.4
4,472.9
2,237.7
1,027.6
1,734.2
4,999.5
2,184.4
1,067.9
1,709.4
4,961.7
10.7
9.7
10.7
10.5
11.8
11.4
12.7
12.0
12.4
12.8
14.2
13.1
12.2
12.7
13.9
12.8
Total
18,241.4
7,171.1
11,800.8
37,213.3
17,901.8
7,492.1
11,884. 1
37,278.0
17,995.4
8,010.2
12,190.7
38,196.3
17,961.3
8,425.3
12,317.5
38,704.1
Note: Population forecast assumes a 2.1 fertility rate and 1970 to 1975 migration trends. Discrepancies between this table and Table
A-19 due to discrepancies in the source documents.
aComputed from data in Table 6, Current Population Report, No. 796.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979b.
-------
TABLE A-26
MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION POPULATION
BY METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREAS
Metropolitan Nonmetropolitan
Middle Atlantic Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent Change
Division I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b I9603 1960-70 1970a 1970-77 1977b
New York 15.0 8.8 16.3 -2.6 15.9 1.8 7.6 1.9 10.7
New Jersey 5.8 16.3 6.8 0.1 6.8 0.3 59.6 0.4 5.8
Pennsylvania 9.1 5.0 9.6 -0.9 4.5 2.2 1.2 2.2 18.8
Division Total 29.9 9.1 32.6 -1.6 32.1 4.3 7.5 4.6 12.3
Note: Apparent data discrepancies due to rounding.
aApril.
bjuly.
2.1
0.6
2.3
5.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 1979c.
-------
TABLE A-27
POPULATION, LABOR FORCE AND PARTICIPATION RATE
BY SEX: MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
Population3
Middle Atlantic
Division
1960
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
1970
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
1976
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Division Total
Male
5.8
2.1
3.9
11.9
6.0
2.4
3.9
12.3
6.1
2.5
4.0
12.7
Female
6.5
2.3
4.3
13.1
7.0
2.7
4.5
14.1
7.2
2.8
4.6
14.6
Labor
Male
4.5
1.6
3.0
9.2
4.5
1.8
3.0
9.3
4.7
2.0
3.1
9.9
Forceb
Female
2.4
0.8
1.4
4.6
2.9
1.1
1.7
5.8
3.4
1.4
2.1
7.0
Participation Rate
(Percent)
Male
77.4
77.5
76.1
77.0
75.1
77.5
75.4
75.7
77.1
79.2
77.2
77.6
Female
36.9
35.5
33.3
35.5
41.3
42.5
39.4
40.9
47.5
49.7
45.4
47.3
Note: Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. Discrepancies between this table and Table
A-22 due to discrepancies in the source.
aPersons age 14 and over for 1960; age 16 and over for 1970 and 1976.
^Civilian labor force.
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.
-------
o Female participation rose from 35.5 percent in 1960 to 47.3
percent in 1976. At the same time, male participation fluc-
tuated from 77.0 percent in 1960, to 75.7 in 1970 and 77.6 in
1976.
o New York and Pennsylvania experienced a fluctuating trend in
male participation similar to that of the region, while New
Jersey recorded a steady rate in the 1960s with a slight rise
by 1976.
o Female participation, on the other hand, increased in every
state between 1960 and 1976. The highest female rate
occurred in New Jersey in 1976 when it reached 49.7 percent,
up from the 35.5 level of 1960.
o Pennsylvania's female participation rate was lower than the
division levels in every year recorded. Conversely, New York
and New Jersey rates were equal to or greater than division
levels throughout the period.
A.2.3.6 Employment by Occupation (Table A-28)
o Change in the percent of total employment by occupation
category in the Middle Atlantic Census Division between
1970 and 1976 was greatest for managers and administrators,
followed by professional and technical workers. Both
categories increased their shares of total employment.
o Laborers, farm workers and service workers also experienced
slight percentage gains over the six years.
o All other occupation categories declined over that time
period, with operatives experiencing the largest decrease.
o The only divergence from division trends was in New Jersey
where the clerical workers' proportion of total employment
remained steady rather than declining as for the division.
A.2.3.7 Employment by Industry (Table A-29)
o The most significant gain in employment distribution by
industrial category in the division was made in professional
and related services, which increased in percent of total
employment from 18.0 to 21.1 percent between 1970 and 1976.
This was followed by wholesale and retail trade, which gained
1 percent of the total over the same time period.
115
-------
TABLE A-28
OCCUPATION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS:
MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
Middle Atlantic
1970 1976
Total Employed
(Thousands) 14,520 15,111
Percent Distribution
by Occupation
Professional, Technical
and Kindred Workers 15.7 17.5
Managers and Adminis-
trators, Except Farm 8.1 10.7
Sales Workers 7.4 6.0
Clerical Workers 20.4 19.7
Craft and Kindred
Workers 13.3 12.2
Operatives, Including
Transport 17.9 14.8
Laborers, Except Farm 4.0 4.1
Farm Workers 1.0 1.4
Service Workers 12.2 13.6
New York New Jersey Pennsylvania
1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976
7,124 7,304 2,859 3,054 4,537 4,753
16.7 18.8 16.1 17.9 13.8 15.1
8.5 11.3 8.8 11.8 7.0 9.3
7.5 5.8 7.7 6.6 7.0 5.8
22.4 21.4 20.2 19.5 17.3 17.3
12.2 11.2 13.7 12.4 14.9 13.7
15.1 13.0 18.6 14.5 21.8 17.8
3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.9 4.9
1.0 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9
13.0 13.8 10.7 12.2 12.0 14.2
Source: Adapted from U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.
-------
TABLE A-29
INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYED PERSONS:
MIDDLE ATLANTIC DIVISION
Middle Atlantic
1970 1976
Total Employed
(Thousands) 14,520 15,111
Percent Distribution
by Industry
Agriculture, Forestry
and Fisheries 1.4 1.8
Mining 0.4 0.4
Construction 5.1 4.7
Manufacturing 28.8 24.1
Transportation,
Communication and
Public Utilities 7.4 7.2
Wholesale and
Retail Trade 19.3 20.3
Finance, Insurance
and Real Estate 6.2 6.0
Business and Repair
Services 3.6 3.9
Personal, Entertain-
ment and Recreation
Services 4.6 4.8
Professional and
Related Services 18.0 21.1
Public Administration 5.2 5.7
New York New Jersey Pennsylvania
1970 1976 1970 1976 1970 1976
7,124 7,304 2,859 3,054 4,537 4,753
1.3 1.5 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.5
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.2
4.8 4.1 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.2
24.2 21.4 32.2 25.1 34.0 27.7
8.0 8.0 7.6 7.3 6.4 5.8
19.5 20.3 19.1 20.6 18.9 20.1
7.5 6.6 6.1 6.5 4.2 4.8
4.1 4.3 3.9 4.1 2.8 3.3
5.2 4.9 4.0 4.8 4.2 4.7
19.7 23.2 15.8 18.8 16.7 19.4
5.5 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.7 5.4
Represents zero or rounds to zero.
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce 1979a.
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o Manufacturing suffered the largest decline, dropping from
28.8 percent of the total to 24.1 percent over the six-year
period. Slight decreases were also experienced in construc-
tion, transportation and FIRE.
o All three states reflected changes similar to those of the
division as a whole, for the most part, with professional and
related services recording the largest gain and manufacturing
the greatest decline between 1970 and 1976.
o Two changes were the reverse of the division trend, however.
New Jersey and Pennsylvania recorded a decrease in FIRE com-
pared to a regional increase. Also, personal entertainment
and recreation declined in New York while it increased at the
division level.
118
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123
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Department Approval: x
MITRE Project Approval:
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