AinomoDiie scrapping Processes
       and
deeds tor Maryland

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Automobile Scrapping Processes and Needs for Maryland
                  A FINAL REPORT ON A SOLID WASTE DEMONSTRATION
            This report (SW-lOd) was prepared for the Maryland State Department of Health
                        by MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY INC.
                  supported in part by a demonstration grant (1-D01-UJ-00187)
                      from the Bureau of Solid Waste Management
      U.S.  DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
                       Public Health Service
                      ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SERVICE
                     Bureau of Solid Waste Management
                                   1970

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    Public Health Service Publication No. 2027
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOG CARD NO. 73-605837


   For sale by the Superintendent of Documents
         U.S. Government Printing Office
            Washington, D.C.   20402
                   Price $1.25

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                   Foreword
     AN ESTIMATED 900 MILLION POUNDS of solid wastes
     of all types are produced in the United States every day.
     What to do with these solid wastes, how to dispose of them
without needlessly endangering public health and welfare, and
how to recover and reuse valuable materials now  discarded are
among the most challenging and perplexing of current national
problems. Because of lack  of suitable planning,  interest, and
public understanding, these problems have reached such propor-
tions that nationwide attention is demanded and  action for the
development of adequate solutions must be taken.
  Intensified action concerning these problems was made pos-
sible by the Solid Waste Disposal Act, Title II of Public Law
89-272, which was signed by the  President on October 20, 1965.
This legislation directs the Secretary of the  Department of
Health, Education, and Welfare to initiate, encourage, and sup-
port a national program aimed at discovering and evaluating
better methods of coping with the solid waste problem.
  The Secretary is authorized:  (1) to conduct  and support re-
search on the nature and scope of the problem, on methods of
more safely  and efficiently collecting and disposing  of solid
wastes, and on techniques for recovering from solid wastes po-
tentially  valuable materials and energy;  (2) to provide training
and financial and technical assistance to local and State agencies
and other organizations in the planning,  development, and con-
duct of solid waste management  programs;  (3) to encourage and
support  projects that may demonstrate  new and  improved
methods  of solid waste collection, handling, and disposal.
  To carry out these responsibilities, the  Bureau of Solid Waste
Management was established. Among the responsibilities with
which the Bureau is charged is that  of providing grant support
for demonstrations relating to the development and application
of new and improved methods of solid waste collection, storage,
processing and ultimate disposal; and also for studies and in-
vestigations that may lead to a demonstration of improved dis-
posal practices, or may provide solutions for regional or national
solid waste disposal problems. Associated with this  is the respon-
sibility of collecting and making  available by appropriate means
the results of, and other information pertaining to, such fed-
erally supported demonstrations,  studies and investigations.

                            Hi

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  This report attacks the problem of automobile disposal using
a systems analysis approach. Although the analysis has been
directed to solving the problem in Maryland, the model can be
applied to other States or regions. The basic components of the
disposal reclaiming cycle are discussed as well as the problems
associated with each. The seven problems  identified would be
expected to exist in locations other than Maryland. The magni-
tude of the seven problems will vary, and the solutions  peculiar
to any location will  be dependent on this magnitude. Hence,
guided by the basic model presented in this report, it should be
possible for those working in  the field to determine the modifica-
tions that would be necessary to solve the problem of  automo-
bile disposal for any location in the United States.

                     —RICHARD D. VAUGHAN, Director
                      Bureau of Solid  Waste Management

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                   Contents
                                                  PAGE
SUMMARY	     /
The Problems, Conclusions, Recommendations  ....     I

SYSTEM DESCRIPTION	    3
The Approach	    3
The Junked Car—Location and Users	    4
The Junked Car
The Abandoned Vehicle
The Impounded Vehicle
The Auto Dismantler
The Scrap Processor
The Scrap User
The Problems in the Cycle	    6

MARYLAND—THE SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM	    9
The Current Situation	    9
The Abandoned and Impounded Vehicle
The Auto Dismantler and Scrap Processor
Projected Vehicle Disposal	   10

MARYLAND—A SOLUTION	   13
Resource Utilization	   13
Technological Developments
The Disposal/Reclaiming Cycle—Solution to the Under-
  Utilized-Resource Problems
Recommended Government Action	   16
Stopping Vehicle Abandonment
Reporting Abandoned Vehicles
Ensuring Proper Disposal of Junked Cars
Laws and Titling Requirements
Solving Aesthetic and Pollution Problems
Police/Industry Cooperation
Contingency Considerations	   21
Subsidizing Scrap
Junkyards of Last  Resort
Level of and Responsibility for Action	   23
The Abandoning of Vehicles
Reporting Abandoned Vehicles
Ensuring Proper Disposal of Junked Cars
Laws and Titling Requirements

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                                                     PAGE
Solving Aesthetic and Pollution Problems
The Systems—Current and Projected: An Integrated
  Overview	    24
The Current Situation
The Projected Situation
The Dynamic Relationships

EXHIBITS
Disposal/Reclaiming Cycle for Junked Cars (Exhibit I) .     4
Problems and Approaches (Exhibit II)	     7
State and County Data—Current and Projected (Exhibit
  III)	    59
New Car Sales—Actual and Projected (Exhibit IV)  ...    60
Vehicle Disposal (Current Flow) (Exhibit V)	    61
Vehicle Dismantling/Processing (Current Flow) (Exhibit
  VI)	    62
Vehicle Disposal (Projected Flow, Incorporating Conclu-
  sions and Recommendations) (Exhibit VII)   ....    63
Vehicle Dismantlng/Processing (Project Flow Incorporat-
  ing Conclusions and Recommendations) (Exhibit VIII)    64
Matrix of Problems/Conclusions/Recommendations
  (Exhibit IX)	28


APPENDICES A THROUGH H
A  County Data	29
B  Cars Entering the Scrap Cycle	33
C  Long-Range Forecasts	41
D  Prices Paid by a Shredder Operator	48
E Excerpt from: Plants for Screening Junkyards, Gravel-
      pits, and Dumps	49
F  Technological Developments in the  Scrap Industry   .  52
G  Used-Tire Reuse	56
H Bibliography	57

TABLES (APPENDIX B)
Fable 1.  Nationwide Scrappage Figures—Actual versus
  Predicted	     36
Table 2.   Maryland Scrappage Figures—Actual versus
  Predicted	     37
Table 3.  Garrett County Scrappage  Figures—Actual
  versus Predicted	     37
Table 4.  Queen  Anne's County Scrappage Figures-
  Actual versus Predicted	     38
Table 5.   Prince George's County Scrappage Figures-
  Actual versus Predicted	     38
Table 6.   Reference Table for Calculating the  Number
  of Vehicles Entering Scrap Cycle in a Given Year  .     39

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                              Summary
    CONSIDERING the abandoning, col-
    lecting, storing, disposing, salvaging,
    and processing of junked cars as an
integrated system, we analyzed each com-
ponent of the system—the Junked Car, the
Abandoned Car, the Impounded Car, the
Auto Dismantler, the Scrap Processor, the
Scrap User—and identified seven problem
areas in the system, each requiring a solu-
tion. Information regarding each compo-
nent of the system was collected from Fed-
eral, State, and local  governments, from
auto dismantlers, steelmakers, and scrap
processors, and  from  other  available
sources,  including  trade  associations,
States other than Maryland, and reports
of other consulting firms. The  magnitude
of the scrap automobile problem in Mary-
land was accessed through the use of a
questionnaire responded to by all the coun-
ties of Maryland and the City of Baltimore,
interviews with State and local officials,
and projections of the future number and
distribution of junked cars in the State.
  Based upon the data collected, alterna-
tive  approaches  to  each  problem  were
evaluated.  In this evaluation, all alterna-
tives, based on both technological changes
in the private sector  and suggested gov-
ernment actions,  were analyzed to deter-
mine the effect of each on all problems and
components of the system. Finally, a set of
conclusions and  recommendations  was
developed.

Problems, Conclusions, Recommendations
  The seven problem areas considered, the
conclusions reached concerning the activi-
ties of the private sector in each area, and
the recommendations for government ac-
tion, have been summarized briefly below.
  Problem 1.  Vehicle abandonment con-
tinues at an alarming rate. Conclusion: No
action by the private sector will result in
significantly reducing the number of ve-
hicles abandoned annually. Recommenda-
tion: The passage of State legislation im-
posing heavy penalties on those who aban-
don  vehicles.  The retrieval of vehicle
registration information will become more
rapid and precise with the implementation
of National Highway Safety Standard
4.4.2, which requires an integrated motor
vehicle registration program, thereby as-
suring the ability to trace ownership.
  Problem 2.  A vast inventory of aban-
doned vehicles requires location and col-
lection. Conclusion: Increasing demand for
vehicle hulks to feed scrap shredders that
will be  operating in Maryland shortly will
result in the collection of some, and per-
haps all, of the current inventory of aban-
doned  vehicles. In  other geographical
areas, the appearance of this method of
processing scrap has resulted in vehicles
being drawn into these operations from as
far as 500 miles. Recommendations: To
supplement this anticipated demand for
vehicle hulks, and to reduce the number of
abandoned vehicles as rapidly as possible
with the least expenditure of public funds,
abandoned and junked vehicles should be
defined as public nuisances and it should
be required that they be reported and re-
moved  to junk dealers or scrap processors;
free dumping areas should be established
in political subdivisions  at which junked
cars may be deposited.

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  Problem 3.  Current laws and titling
requirements restrict vehicle collection and
disposal. Conclusion: No action by the
private sector will alleviate this problem.
Recommendation: Reduce the legal and
titling requirements currently hampering
the collection and disposal of vehicles by
enacting sections (b) through (g) of Senate
Bill No. 16.
  Problem 4.  Auto dismantlers and scrap
processors  present air pollution and aes-
thetic problems. Conclusion:  Industry in-
itiated action to solve these problems has
not been sufficient. Recommendations: Re-
quire screening of all  extant auto dis-
mantlers' and scrap processors' facilities
from  public view;  require each facility to
present a  plan for screening  within 6
months of effective date of legislation. En-
courage counties  and municipalities to
stipulate in master plans the  available lo-
cations for future dismantlers and proces-
sors and provide them with technical as-
sistance. Permit interim controlled open
burning until and subsequent to the open-
ing of scrap shredding operations.
  Problem 5.  There are currently in auto
dismantlers' yards a considerable inven-
tory of vehicle hulks, that is, junked cars
stripped of usable  parts. Conclusion: This
inventory will be reduced  upon the initia-
tion of shredding operations  in the State
of Maryland and  will continue to  be re-
duced as the quality of, and  demand for,
scrap  increases. Recommendation: No gov-
ernment action is required to decrease the
current inventory of vehicle hulks.
  Problem 6.  The quality of scrap pro-
duced  from  auto hulks using  current
methods frequently does not meet the
quality standards of  potential users. Con-
clusion: This problem has been solved by
the development of  the  scrap shredding
process. Sufficient shredding facilities will
be available by  mid-1969 to process all
junk vehicles in the State of Maryland
through at least 1979 based on our pro-
jections. Recommendation: No  govern-
ment action is  required to support or
subsidize the scrap industry.
  Problem 7.   The current  production
methods used by  the steel and foundry
industries do  not  generate sufficient de-
mand  for processed scrap to utilize all
junked cars.  Conclusion: The increasing
use of electric  furnaces and the continuous
casting process  by the foundry and steel
industries, both  of which generate consid-
erable demand for acceptable scrap, will
result  in the eventual utilization of the
total inventory of junked cars  as  a re-
source. Recommendation: No government
action is required to increase the use of
scrap.
  In essence,  then, problems created by
an inadequate demand for processed scrap
and a technologically unacceptable supply
of processed scrap are  being solved by in-
dustry. The aesthetic problems, however,
require government  action.

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              System   Description
      WHEN AN AUTOMOBILE has out-
      lived its usefulness as a transporta-
      tion vehicle, it becomes an aesthetic
problem—but also it becomes a valuable
source of materials. In a sense, it becomes
a mine from which valuable metallic . . .
materials can be obtained. So begins Auto-
mobile  Disposal, A National  Problem,
published in 1967 by the Bureau of Mines.
The problems created by the junked car
as a major component of the bulky solid
wastes being discarded at an ever-increas-
ing rate in our society are the major sub-
jects of this study. It is, moreover, the two
characteristics of the junked car noted in
the above quotation that provide an in-
sight into two types of problems, each of
which requires a distinct approach: first,
those problems related to the junked car
as an aesthetic problem, i.e., as a nuisance
and an eyesore; second, those problems re-
lated to  the junked car as an available, but
not fully utilized, resource.
   Solving those problems in the second
group, the resource-related problems, is of
first importance, since it is only  by ensur-
ing the rapid,  and  profitable, reuse of
these available raw materials that the gal-
loping growth of solid waste accumulations
can be stopped. By drawing more of the
resources into the production cycle, we
can minimally reduce the time from the
discard  of obsolescent material until it is
reusable as a raw material, and, optimally,
reduce the inventory of unprocessed scrap
and the blight resulting from the abandon-
ment of vehicles.
  The aesthetic problems, more noticeable
but  perhaps less significant, are more
tractable to solution by government ac-
tion; however, solutions to aesthetic prob-
lems are likely to be regarded unjustifiably
as a cure, which they are not, rather than
merely as camouflaging of the actual prob-
lem.  It is only by a combination of re-
quired actions for solving the aesthetic
problem and the utilization of potential
resources in the junked car that significant
progress can be attained.

            The Approach
  To better understand the problems cre-
ated by the junked automobile (and other
metallic solid wastes)and to ensure an in-
tegrated approach to the solution of these
problems, systems  analysis techniques
were used to define  and analyze the cur-
rent and projected situation. This approach
clarified the interrelationships between the
problem areas and identified those actions
that could result in  solution of the prob-
lems and those actions that could serve
only to temporarily  alleviate undesirable
conditions. First, a  system flow chart of
the scrap cycle was  prepared in order to
present clearly the distinct activities which
comprise this cycle. Second, the individual
components of this cycle were investigated
and described. Third, the problems related
to the components were identified. Fourth,
data regarding the current  magnitude of
these problems in Maryland were collected
by means of a questionnaire sent to all
counties in Maryland and the City  of Bal-
timore and interviews with government
officials, junk and scrap dealers, and other
interested persons.  Fifth, land use plans
for  the counties of Maryland  were re-
   378-884 O - 70 - 2

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                                o\
         Problem 1
        Abandoning
         by owner
  Problem 5
Large Inventory
  of stripped
 Vehicle Hulks
               Collection and
                Disposal of
            Abandoned Vehicles
' L
i
Problem 6
.ow Quality
Processed
Scrap
                EXHIBIT i.  Disposal/Reclaiming Cycle for Junked Cars.
viewed. Sixth, projections of the future
level of disposed vehicles in Maryland
were made. Seventh, alternative solutions
to each problem were developed. Eighth,
the alternative solutions were evaluated
in light of the data collected and the cur-
rent changing patterns of operation in the
scrap processing and steel making indus-
tries; a set of recommendations was then
developed.

  The Junked Car—Location and Users

  The first step in our analysis was to de-
fine the problem limits by charting the
flow of the vehicle from the time of its
ceasing to be a usable means  of transpor-
tation until the reusable materials it con-
tained were back into the manufacturing
industry.
  Exhibit I,  Disposal/Reclaiming Cycle,
depicts the flow of the vehicle through
this cycle. The six sections that follow cor-
respond to the symbols designated A
through F in Exhibit I and describe briefly
the following component parts of the cycle:
the junked car; the abandoned vehicle;
the impounded vehicle;  the auto dis-
mantler; the scrap processor; the scrap
user.

  The Junked Car.   The junked car en-
ters the scrap cycle when a vehicle owner
decides that he no longer can use a vehicle
as a means of transportation  because it is:
(1) inoperable and the cost  of repair ex-
ceeds its value to him; (2) wrecked; or (3)
because there is no demand by others for
the vehicle an a means of transport.

  When the vehicle owner finds himself in

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this situation, he follows basically one of
four courses of action: (1) he keeps the
vehicle on his property; (2) he abandons
the vehicle on public or private property;
(3) he sells or gives the vehicle to an auto
dismantler or scrap processor; (4) he takes
the vehicle to a dump.
   The Abandoned Vehicle.   Nationally,
according to a survey conducted in 1965
by the Bureau of Mines, approximately 21
percent of the total junked car inventory
was in automobile graveyards, municipal
car pounds, public dumps, held by the
owner on his property, or abandoned on
public  or private property.
   A 1967 report prepared by the  U.S. De-
partment of Commerce, Motor Vehicle
Abandonment, indicated that 10 percent
of the  total number of cars leaving active
service annually were abandoned. The
reasons for abandonment, and the percent-
age of respondents who proffered each, are
as follows: (1) the car broke down and I
left it where it was (30%); (2) it costs too
much to have the car removed (25%); (3)
I don't know where to take the car or
whom  to call (25%); (4) I couldn't find the
title (or) the bank had the title (10%); (5)
other varied reasons (10%).
   The primary causes for  abandonment
are then that, (a) it is the least expensive
and most expeditious way to discard a no
longer wanted item, and (b) no  effective
campaign has been conducted to advise
those who have or will have this problem
of the proper means of disposal.
   Abandoned motor vehicles are normally
in one  or more of the following categories:
deteriorated motor vehicles with little or
no monetary value for resale; unservice-
able vehicles with repair costs that exceed
their value;  and, vehicles which have been
wrecked, misappropriated, or stolen.
   Automobile graveyards are tracts of
land where "abandoned" junked cars have
accumulated. In the main,  these vehicles
do not currently find their way into the
dismantler/scrap  processor/steel producer
cycle. The graveyards, which nationally
represent about 3 percent of junked car
inventory, according to  the Bureau of
Mines' Automobile Disposal, A National
Problem, are principally of four types: (1)
abandoned-auto wrecking yards; (2) auto
dealer's  storage  yards for inoperative
trade-in vehicles; (3) storage areas initi-
ated by the accumulation  of hulks by car
repairing and rebuilding hobbyists and re-
pair groups; (4) farm property used by the
owner for a "crop of junk vehicles."
   The Impounded Vehicle.  When a ve-
hicle is abandoned on public property or
on private property other than that of the
vehicle owner and discovered, either by
observation by government personnel (pri-
marily law enforcement  officers) or by
complaint, the vehicle is impounded in
many instances by the local government
and held in a "car pound."
  After impounding, the subsequent series
of actions is normally followed:  (1) an ef-
fort is made to trace the  vehicle owner-
ship;  (2) the owner, if located, is notified
that his vehicle has been impounded and
allowed time to claim the vehicle upon
payment of towing, and other charges; (3)
if unclaimed, and subsequent to required
title clearance procedures, the vehicle is
normally auctioned.
   Such procedures are common in urban
areas;  vehicles currently  abandoned in
rural areas, however, are not normally im-
pounded and, therefore, continue to blight
the countryside.
   The Auto Dismantler.  The auto dis-
mantler (synonymously, junk dealer) pro-
vides, basically, two services to the com-
munity by: first, accepting worn out,
wrecked, or obsolete vehicles that are no
longer wanted for service as a car, and,
second, supplying used parts for replace-
ment to individuals, automotive repair
shops, and rebuilders.
   The auto dismantler depends for his
continued existence not only upon the sale
of parts, but also on the sale of stripped

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vehicle hulks to scrap processors. A low
price from, and in some instances a charge
to the dismantler by, the scrap dealer
causes the inventory of hulks to accumu-
late in "junk yards." Nationally, auto dis-
mantlers indicate that 23 percent of their
inventory has no further  value as a source
of parts.
   Auto dismantlers are the primary de-
pository, and in many areas currently the
only aceptable depository, for disposing
of junked cars. When the scrap cycle is
operating properly, that is, when the de-
mand for processed scrap  is sufficient to
permit scrap processors to sell their inven-
tories and purchase all available hulks for
processing, junk vehicles flow in and out of
the dismantlers'  yards  at virtually the
same rate; reusable parts are removed
from the vehicle for resale and the residue,
the stripped vehicle hulk, flows  forward
in the cycle to the scrap processor.
   The Scrap Processor.  Fundamentally,
the scrap processor collects scrap, proces-
ses it into the physical forms and grades
 required by customers, and sells it, in
some instances through brokers, to steel
mills and foundaries.
   The scrap processor normally retains
only a small working inventory of vehicle
hulks. A 1965 Bureau of Mines report indi-
cated that, nationally, only 6 percent of
the total junked car inventory was in scrap
processors' yards.  The processors reported
that for every vehicle at their facility at
year's end,  16 had been processed and
sold.
   The Scrap User.  Iron and steel scrap
is used as ferrous  raw material in the iron
and steel industry, including foundaries.
Scrap comprises about half of the metallic
raw material input in  steel and ferrous
castings production, the balance consisting
primarily of pig iron.
   Scrap is used as a metallic raw material
because: (1) it  normally provides adequate
 quality metalics in competition with pri-
 mary sources;  (2)  the price of scrap tends
to be lower than primary materials to
most steel producers, except in periods of
material shortages. The free market sets
prices at levels that make the use of scrap
attractive. This attractiveness, however,
varies among consumers primarily as a re-
sult of varying degrees of production inte-
gration and different types of furnaces;
(3) a large quantity of scrap is produced
by the steel makers themselves as a by-
product of their operations. This scrap is
generally of relatively high quality and of
known composition.
  Briefly, then,  we  have presented an
overview of the components of the Dis-
posal/Reclaiming Cycle.

       The Problems in the Cycle

  The seven primary problems in the cycle
are:  (1) the continuing flood of vehicle
abandonments; (2) the vast inventory of
abandoned vehicles which must be located
and recovered; (3) the legal limitations re-
stricting the  recovery  and disposal of
abandoned vehicles; (4) the aesthetic and
pollution problems associated with auto
dismantlers and scrap processors; (5) the
current inventory of stripped hulks in
auto dismantlers' yards due to insufficient
demand by scrap processors; (6) the qual-
ity of processed automotive scrap; (7) the
production methods used currently by the
steel and foundry industries.
  These  problems are depicted by the rec-
tangles numbered 1 through 7 in Exhibit
I, Disposal/Reclaiming Cycle for Junked
Cars.
  Exhibit II, Problems and Aproaches, ex-
pands the description of these seven prob-
lem  areas, relates them to the  system
components, and lists the normally con-
sidered alternative approaches to the solu-
tion of these problems.
  Before we examine that combination of
activities by private enterprise and actions
by government which is most likely to
provide a solution to these problems, we
must first assess the current and projected
status of these problems in Maryland.

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                    EXHIBIT  II. THE PROBLEMS AND APPROACHES
          THE PROBLEMS
 THE SYSTEM
 COMPONENT
                                                               THE ALTERNATIVES
  Abandoned vehicles continue
  to cover the countryside in
  ever-increasing numbers.
  This spreading pall must be
  stopped
  The vehicles already abandoned
  require an integrated system
  of retrieval
              The abandonment of vehicles can be stopped,
              or minimally reduced, by:
                a) Instituting heavy  fines for those who
                   abandon a vehicle
                b) Placing an  artificial  value on a junk
                   vehicle by paying a fee to all who turn
                   in their obsolete auto
                c) Subsidizing  those  who retrieve  aban-
                   doned auto
                d) Penalizing those who create scrap by
ABANDONED         demanding cars which become junk —
   AUTO            taxing new car purchasers
                e) Charging manufacturers who produce
                   items which become obsolete for the
                   "social" costs involved in the retrieval
                   of these items
                f) Informing the public of how and where
                   to dispose of vehicles properly
                g) Licensing all junk  dealers and defining
                   them so that anyone who leaves an
                   "abandoned" vehicle on his property is
                   subject to licensing requirements
3. Current statutes often restrict
   both government and private
   action in obtaining, storing,
   and disposing of junked autos
               Institute state and local legislation to:
                a) Permit  freer  access  to  abandoned
                   vehicles for the purpose of retrieving
                   them
 IMPOUNDED      b) Reduce title clearance requirements
   AUTO         c) Stipulate maximum time allowance for
                   owner to retrieve vehicle
                d) Increase charges to those  who do  not
                   retrieve vehicles immediately
                e) Inform   public  of   locations  where
                   vehicles can be recovered
4.  The auto dismantler's facility:
     a) Is frequently offensive in
       appearance, particularly
       in certain areas, and
     b) Presents a pollution
       problem due primarily to
       the requirement for burn-
       ing vehicles when they are
       to be processed as scrap
       by most current methods

5.  The current inventory of hulks,
   that is vehicles stripped of
   saleable used parts, in auto dis-
   mantlers' yards, is extensive.
   The demand by processors for
   these hulks must be increased
               Require that:
                a) Extant  auto dismantlers facilities be
                   shielded
                b) Future facilities be located away from
                   areas  of  public   congestion  and/or"
                   shielded
   AUTO         c) Effective  pollution control  be imple-
 DISMANTLER         mented
                a) Artificially support the scrap industry
                   to permit them to expand their sales to
                   the scrap users and to purchase more
                   vehicle hulks from the auto dismantler
4. The scrap processor's facility is
  frequently not acceptable
  either in appearance or as a
  safe operation
6. The quality of scrap produced
  by the processors from auto
  hulks is frequently such that it
  is unacceptable to user except
  at extremely low prices
                a) Require  that  scrap processors  shield
                   their facilities in accordance with stand-
                   ards for the zone  in  which they are
                   located
   SCRAP        a) Artificially support the scrap processing
 PROCESSOR         industry so that the price of technically
                   low-quality scrap will be acceptable  to
                   scrap users
                b) Improve the quality of scrap by utilizing
                   more advanced technology  in its pro-
                   duction
  The current methods of produc-
  tion used by scrap users do not,
  at most times, allow them to
  utilize sufficient scrap to clear
  the junk auto hulks from the
  system
                a) Increase the amount of scrap consumed
                   by expanding the use of steel and cast-
SCRAP USERS         ing  production  methods  which  can
  (Mills and          utilize  greater amounts of processed
  Foundries)          scrap
                b) Decrease the price of scrap by artificially
                   supporting the scrap processingindustry

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Maryland—The  Scope  of the Problem
    THE DATA in the following sections
    is  intended  to  provide  a  basis
    against which to assess the results
of the implementation of certain courses
of action, which are expected to follow in
the steel and scrap processing industries,
and which we hope will be established by
the State of Maryland.
  The data in The Current Situation,  was
developed from the responses to our ques-
tionnaire received from government per-
sonnel of all counties of Maryland and the
City of Baltimore, from interviews with
government officials, from interviews with
auto dismantlers and  scrap  processors,
and from land use plans provided to us by
Maryland's political subdivisions.
  The data in Projected Vehicle Disposal,
is the result of the application of a  sta-
tistical model we developed (which  cor-
related historical new car sales with cars
junked in past years with great accuracy)
to projected new car sales.

        The Current Situation

  The Abandoned and Impounded Ve-
hicle.  The Annotated Code of Maryland
currently permits the "disposition of lost,
abandoned and stolen motor vehicles" in
Maryland and specifically in Anne Arun-
del,  Montgomery, and Prince George's
Counties, and incorporated municipalities.
Further, county commissioners are  em-
powered by the State to institute and im-
plement ordinances for impounding  and
disposing of vehicles left on  private prop-
erty. Some political subdivisions have
passed legislation permitting  the impound-
ing of vehicles from both public and private
property, whereas others have ordinances
covering only abandonments on public or
private property; still others have no pol-
icy established in this regard.
  In the State of Maryland, abandoned,
lost, or stolen motor vehicles that are im-
pounded by the Department of Motor Ve-
hicles must be held for  a  period  of 3
months, although in Anne Arundel, Mont-
gomery , and Prince George's Counties, and
in incorporated municipalities,  this time
period is reduced to 30 days.
  If the owner, lien holder, or other per-
son or corporation entitled to the vehicle
cannot be located within the specified time
limit, the vehicle may be disposed of.
However, if the owner of the vehicle does
not claim it, a notice describing the ve-
hicle and the date and place of its sale
must be placed in a local newspaper at
least once a week for the two weeks pre-
ceding the proposed sale date. Also, a
registered notice must be mailed to the
last owner as shown on Department rec-
ords at least ten days prior to the sale.
  A special fund is created from the sale
of these vehicles to cover the expenses of
storing and processing them prior to auc-
tion and the balance of proceeds from the
sale,  after expenses, is held for  1 year by
the responsible government agency for
payment to the vehicle owner if he sub-
mits a claim during that time. If no claim
is  made within a year, this balance is
transferred  to the General Treasury.
  An abandoned vehicle having salvage
value only  may be sold by the property
owner or person having custody  of the ve-

-------
hicle after 30 days. Prior to selling, a cer-
tificate stating the vehicle has salvage
value only must be obtained from the De-
partment of Motor Vehicles or the appro-
priate police  department. Further, the
vehicle owner must be notified that the
abandoned vehicle will be sold unless it is
promptly claimed. In addition, a notice of
sale must be sent, by registered mail, to
the last owner of record  at leastlO days
prior to the sale. A certificate of sale and
certification of salvage value must be ob-
tained  following the sale on forms pre-
scribed  by the  Department  of Motor
Vehicles. This certification constitutes the
certificate of title if the purchaser is an
auto dismantler or scrap processor who in-
tends to destroy the vehicle in question.
The seller is absolved of any liability to
the original owner if the  procedures out-
lined above are followed.
   A survey conducted in  1966 by the Di-
vision of Solid Wastes of the  Maryland
State Department of Health found more
than 51,000 abandoned vehicles in Mary-
land, exclusive of Anne Arundel, Balti-
more, and Frederick Counties. Although
no attempt was made in this study  to
"count" the abandoned vehicles in Mary-
land, data received in response to our
questionnaire indicated an abandonment
rate of approximately  23,000 vehicles an-
nually for the State (Exhibit III).

   The Auto Dismantler and Scrap Proces-
 sor.   State trader's licenses are issued by
 the counties to auto dismantlers and scrap
 processors based on the value of their in-
 ventory and the cost of these licenses var-
 ies from $15 to $800.
    The operation of auto dismantlers is
 governed by zoning ordinances passed by
 certain counties  and municipalities.  In
 some localities, prior approval by a zoning
 commission or certain other agencies is
 required to expand or open new facilities.
 The political subdivisions also vary widely
 in the restrictions placed on the size, fenc-
 ing, and screening from public view, and
the distance from a public highway of
auto dismantlers and scrap processors.
  Air pollution controls are affecting the
scrappage of automobile hulks. Burning of
these hulks in the open in prohibited; how-
ever, in many instances permission to burn
has been granted. This permission has
been granted normally after a review of
the individual operation, taking into con-
sideration the proximity of other industry,
residential areas, and fire hazards.
  Responses to our questionnaire resulted
in the identification of approximately 700
auto dismantlers in the State, with an
estimated current inventory of roughly
160,000  vehicles. Fourteen major scrap
processors were identified; these had either
shears or balers for the preparation of
hulks for sale to mills and foundries. Two
shredders are planned in the State—one to
be located in Baltimore, the other in the
suburbs of the District of Columbia.
  Exhibit III, State and County Data-
Current and Projected, presents a consoli-
dation of the data received from the coun-
ties and the City of Baltimore in response
to our questionnaire. Appendix A, County
Data, is  a compilation of the essential in-
formation received from county officials
and land use master plans. Exhibits III
through  VIII may be found following the
appendices at the end of this book.

       Projected Vehicle Disposal

  To assess future magnitude and distri-
bution of junked  cars  in the State of
Maryland a projection of these vehicles
for the State, its counties, and the City of
Baltimore was made for each year from
1968 through 1979. These estimates ap-
pear on  the lower  half of Exhibit III,
State and County Data—Current and Pro-
jected. The method used  for these projec-
tions,  which is explained in detail in Ap-
pendix B, was to develop  a predictive
statistical model which  could accurately
correlate historical data with the actual
number  of cars leaving active service an-
nually in past years.
                                        10

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  The model finally selected predicted the
number of vehicles leaving active service
annually with extreme accuracy (within
2.5% of the actual for the State of Mary-
land) and was based on the number of new
cars sold in the 20 years preceding the
year for which scrappage data was being
collected.
  Having determined the efficiency of the
model, new  car  sales for the State of
Maryland and its political subdivisions
were projected. This projection, which ap-
pears  in Exhibit IV, New Car Sales—Act-
ual and Projected, was developed  using
the linear least squares regression tech-
nique and was checked against other fore-
casts that had been made of new car sales
(Appendix C). This projection correlated
well with general industry and government
estimates.
  Finally, the predictive model for scrap-
page was applied to the projected new car
sales and resulted in our estimate of fu-
ture annual vehicle scrappage for Mary-
land, its counties, and the city of Balti-
more.
  The projection indicates that the num-
ber of vehicles  annually leaving active
service by 1979 will be close to 200,000, re-
quiring that facilities for processing and
demand for the processed  scrap must
reach this level by that time.
                                        11
   378-864 O - 70 - 3

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               Maryland—A   Solution
  IN the last part of this report, we noted
  that the problems with which we are
  concerned are of basically two types:
First, problems related to  the junk car
as a nuisance and eye-sore, abandoned
singly or in graveyards, or visible to all
who pass in auto dismantlers' and scrap
processors' yards; second, problems re-
lated to the junk car as an available, but
not fully utilized, resource.
  We will first examine, in detail, resource-
related problems since government action
should be directed only toward removing
any residue of problems remaining after
action by the private sector.
  Secondly, we will discuss this residue of
problems and propose government actions
to remove them.

          Resource Utilization

  The purpose  of this section is to assess
the effect of certain recent technological
developments in the scrap processing and
steel producing industries, and to deter-
mine the extent to which current problems
in the Disposal/Reclaiming Cycle will be
resolved by the implementation, in Mary-
land, of these developments.
  Technological Developments.  Certain
recent developments in the steelmaking
and scrap processing industries indicate
that the demand for processed scrap will
increase significantly in the near future
and  that  the supply  will  be improved
technically to a sufficient degree to permit
the inclusion of all junked car hulks in the
scrap cycle. These developments are: (1)
the increase in the percentage of steel pro-
duction by electric furnaces, which use 98
percent scrap; (2) the reduction (halving)
of home scrap by the expanding use of the
continuous casting process; (3) the produc-
tion of technically  better scrap by  the
scrap processor, particularly when using
the shredding process.
  The electric arc furnace uses a high pro-
portion of scrap—about 98 percent of the
charge. This furnace has been accounting
for an increasing share of the steel produc-
tion, rising from 7.7 percent in 1958 to 11.6
percent in 1967, according to the 1968 In-
stitute of Scrap Iron and Steel Yearbook,
and this percentage is predicted by Union
Carbide, a leading manufacturer of elec-
trodes for those furnaces, to rise to 25 per-
cent by 1975.
  The supply of home scrap, which is
scrap originated in the iron and steel in-
dustry and reused there, is being reduced
substantially by a relatively new process
known as continuous casting. It is esti-
mated by the Business and Defense Ser-
vice Administration  (BSDA) U.S. Depart-
ment of Commerce that 18. 5 percent of
new steel will be continuously cast by 1970
and 38.5 percent by 1975.
  Although certain types of steel cannot
be continuously cast at present, the steel
industry expects that the current tech-
nical limitations will be overcome in the
not too distant future.
  The characteristic of this  process, an
essential element in  this study, is its elim-
ination of approximately 50 percent of the
home scrap  produced using conventional
methods. The following table, from the
                                       13

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U.S. Department of Commerce, BSDA,
Office of Metals and Minerals, presents the
differences in raw material requirements
between the conventional method of mak-
ing steel and continuous casting, assuming
the use of the current 45  percent scrap in
steel making.








Gross scrap and pig
iron used 	
Less home scrap....
Net purchased scrap
and pig iron used 	
Less nonrecover-
able losses 	
Finished steel pro-
duced 	

Addenda:
Pur chased Scrap
Used . .
Pig Iron Used 	



By
conven-
tional
method
(tons)


158
(36)

122

(22)
V**" /
100



37
85



By
contin-
uous
method
(tons)


133
(19)

114

(14)
\ j-i i
100



41
73

Contin-
uous
casting
as per-
cent of
conven-
tional
method

84
53

93

64

100



111
86

  Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

  In order to make 100 tons of steel using
traditional methods, 158 tons of raw ma-
terials, scrap and pig iron, are used. Of this
amount, an average of 73 tons is scrap.
Thirty-six tons, however, is home scrap,
that is, scrap resulting from the produc-
tion of steel and  available to the steel
manufacturer for later reuse. This scrap
never leaves the plant and can simply be
recycled. The balance of the scrap used,
an average of 37 tons, is purchased. On the
other hand, using the continuous casting
process, only 60 tons of scrap are required.
But this process reduces home scrap to
only 19 tons and requires the purchase of
41 tons of scrap. The result is an increase
of 4 tons purchased scrap  for 100  tons
of steel produced or an increase in scrap
demanded of 11 percent.
  If continuous casting were substituted
for the conventional methods throughout
the steel industry, however, the decline in
home scrap would make it impossible to
maintain the current domestic steelmak-
ing scrap proportion, because not enough
scrap, both home and purchased, would be
available, even if all metallic wastes were
processed and all scrap exports  diverted
to domestic use. If this should occur, the
most likely result would be an upward
shift of the demand curve for scrap; i.e.,
a higher price per unit for  processed scrap
at each quantity demanded.

   In review, the demand for scrap is rising
with  the expanding use  of electric fur-
naces, and the supply of home scrap is
declining with the continued growth of
continuous casting. These factors com-
bine to indicate an expanding market for
technically acceptable scrap.

   And the new shredding process provides
a  solution to the problem of technically
unacceptable scrap. This  new process, as
used by the largest scrap  shredding firm,
shreds automotive scrap into small pieces,
from 1/2 inch to 8 inches in  length and
width. The  process  next magnetically
takes out much of the nonferrous mater-
ials. The shredded ferrous scrap  is then
heated in order to melt or burn off some
of the remaining nonferrous  metals and
other materials.  This hot shredded ma-
terial then moves through  a rolling process
which compresses it and breaks loose ad-
ditional contaminants. The  material is
then passed  over a second magnetic sep-
arator. The resultant material is shredded
scrap.
   Perhaps the best measure of the tech-
nical acceptability of shredded  scrap is the
fact that it is reported as selling at appre-
ciably higher prices than No. 1 heavy
melting scrap, which normally sells for
about 30 percent more than No. 2 bundles,
the traditional processed form of a junk
auto hulk. (Appendix D presents a list of
prices currently paid by a shredder in
Massachusetts for vehicle  hulks). Further
this method of processing eliminates the
                                       14

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problem of open burning. Finally, the
combination of a high quality product
with an acceptable price has resulted in
large shredding plants reaching out as far
as 500  miles to  find enough cars for
processing.
  An early appearance of shredders was
in Southern California, and, currently, no
junked car  problem exists in  the areas
reached by these operations,  which in-
clude most of California and the western
parts of Nevada and Arizona. Most aban-
doned cars have been removed from the
countryside and auto dismantlers  have a
ready market for their stripped hulks; this
was accomplished with no subsidy of any
kind.
  The closest shredder to Maryland cur-
rently in operation is in Philadelphia. It is
owned by Pollock-Abrams Company and
has a 200,000-ton-per-year processing ca-
pacity,  which amounts to approximately
650 cars per working day. The process
used by Pollock-Abrams is similar  to that
described above, except that there is no
heating (or burning) of the scrap. Cur-
rently the plant attracts vehicles  from a
60 mile radius, including the northern part
of Maryland. Cars are brought  in by auto
wreckers who are paid $11 to $13 per car
hulk, which is  considerably higher than
the average price paid by scrap  processors
using other  methods.
  Pollock-Abrams Company has a shred-
ding facility planned for the Baltimore
area.  The planned capacity is the same as
their Philadelphia operation—200,000 tons
annually. On  November  4,  1968,  Mr.
Abrams estimated that the Baltimore fa-
cility would be in operation in 8 months
time—in July 1969. A second shredder, in
Prince George's County, with a capacity
of 25,000 vehicles annually is planned for
installation by Joseph Smith  and Sons,
Inc., in  Kenilworth,  Maryland, a suburb
of the District of Columbia.  A third shred-
der, also with an annual capacity  of 25,-
000 vehicles, is planned for installation by
the Alexandria Scrap Corp., Alexandria,
Virginia. These three shredders, together
with the shredder currently in operation
in Philadelphia, provide more than suffi-
cient capacity to process both the  current
vehicle hulk inventory in Maryland, and
all projected junked cars through 1979,
and to process these hulks to meet the
quality requirements of the steel industry.
  In Maryland, therefore, the wider use of
the shredding technique—now, merely a
matter of time—will make processed auto-
motive scrap acceptable in its  entirety to
the expanding scrap user market and will
thus eliminate the accumulation of stripped
junk auto carcasses.
  The Disposal/Reclaiming Cycle—Solu-
tion to the Under-Utilized-Resource Prob-
lems.   To relate these observations, then,
to the seven problem areas identified in
the first section of this report,  the follow-
ing results are anticipated: First, Problem
1—Vehicle abandoning continues at an in-
creasing rate. Solution: The expected in-
crease in the value of junked cars will re-
sult in little or no change in the number
of vehicles abandoned, although more will
be retrieved subsequent to abandonment
as the value of the junked car rises. There-
fore, government action, as indicated in
the following section, is required  to solve
this problem. Second, Problem 2—There is
a vast current inventory of abandoned ve-
hicles which cover the countryside. Solu-
tion: The increasing demand for processed
scrap and the development of shredders
in Maryland will result in the retrieval of
at lease some, and perhaps all, of the cur-
rent inventory of abandoned vehicles. This
forecast  is based on the results achieved
in other  geographical regions subsequent
to the initiation  of shredding  as the pri-
mary method of scrap processing. In these
areas, including California, Missouri, Tex-
as, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and  Massachu-
setts, plants have attracted vehicles from
as far as 500 miles.  And new,  more eco-
nomical techniques of transporting junked
cars have been developed to make these
distances feasible; cars are flattened and
                                        15

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loaded 20 and more on large trucks. The
value of auto hulks has risen markedly in
the areas served by these shredders and
hulks  move readily  into these plants
rather than remain  in auto  wrecking
yards, auto graveyards, or singly aban-
doned. Third, Problem 3—Currently, State
laws and titling requirements unnecessar-
ily restrict both the collection and dis-
posal of abandoned and junked vehicles.
Solution: Government action, as described
later, is required to solve this problem.
Fourth,  Problem  4a—The auto disman-
tlers' and scrap processors' facilities are not
aesthetically acceptable. Solution: No im-
provement in this situation will result from
the technical improvements in scrap proc-
essing or the increasing demand for proc-
essed  scrap. Government action is re-
quired to solve this problem. Problem 4b—
Air pollution is caused by the burning of
vehicle hulks—a required preprocessing for
the traditional  methods of automotive
scrap preparation. Solution: The shred-
ding process will eliminate this problem
and State legislation has already been
passed which prohibits  open   burning.
Fifth, Problem 5—The current  inventory
of hulks, that is, vehicles stripped of sale-
able used parts, in auto dismantlers' yards
is extensive. Solution: This inventory will
be reduced upon  the initiation of the
shredding operations and will continue to
be reduced as the demand for and quality
of scrap improves. Sixth, Problem 6—The
quality of scrap produced from auto hulks
is often not acceptable to the  steel and
foundry industries.  The traditional meth-
od of processing automotive scrap, that is;
the compression of burned vehicle hulks
into No. 2 bundles, often results in un-
desirable  quantities  of nonferrous ma-
terials remaining  in  the  end  product.
Solution: This problem has been solved
technically  by the development of the
scrap shredding process. And, in Mary-
land, sufficient shredding capacity to proc-
ess all vehicle hulks will be  available
shortly. Seventh, Problem 7—The current
methods of production used by the steel
and foundry industries do not create suf-
ficient demand for processed scrap to al-
low all automobile  hulks to enter the
scrap  system. Solution: The increasing use
of electric furnaces  and the continuous
casting process, both of which will create
considerable additional demand for scrap,
will result in the dissipation and disap-
pearance of this problem.
  In summary, then, the demand-related
problems are expected to be solved due to
the development of better scrap process-
ing methods and an increase in  the de-
mand for scrap. On  the other hand, the
problems related to the junked car as a
nuisance and an eyesore will only be solved
by appropriate government action.

   Recommended Government Action

  The problems in the junked car cycle
which require government action for solu-
tion are:
  1. The abandoning of vehicles
  2. The locating and collecting of aban-
doned vehicles
  3. The restriction of vehicle collection
and disposal resulting from extant State
laws and titling requirements
  4. The aesthetic and pollution problems
created by auto dismantlers and scrap
processors.
  In  order to assure solution of these
problems, integrated government action is
required to:
  1. Stop vehicle abandoning
  2.  Require reporting of abandoned ve-
hicles
  3.  Ensure proper disposal of worn-out
or inoperable vehicles
  4.  Permit easier collection and disposal
of vehicles
  5.  Solve aesthetic and pollution prob-
lems.
  Stopping Vehicle Abandonment.  The
best method for halting the continuing
flood  of abandoned vehicles is the imposi-
tion of heavy  penalties on those  who
                                        16

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abandon them. A fine of up to $200.00, as
was proposed in Senate  Bill No. 16, is
recommended. It is only by the legislation
of such penalties that the impetus re-
quired to motivate vehicle owners to dis-
pose properly of unwanted vehicles can be
developed. In effect, such legislation will
say to the vehicle owner that proper dis-
posal of a vehicle is the least expensive
method for ridding himself of it.
  The traditional argument against this
approach has been that the cost of finding
the vehicle owner was excessive; and this
is true since records were kept in such a
way as to make quick retrieval of the re-
quired information difficult. However, the
National  Highway  Safety  Standards,
issued June 27, 1967, require that the indi-
vidual States establish an integrated
Motor Vehicle Registration record system.
  Specifically, Highway Safety Program
Standard 4.4.2 requires that: Each State
shall have a motor vehicle registration
program, which  shall provide for rapid
identification of each vehicle and its own-
er; and shall make available pertinent
data for accident research and safety pro-
gram development.

     I. The program shall  be such  that
every vehicle operated on public highways
is registered and the following information
is readily available for each vehicle:
        Make
        Model year
        Idetification number (rather than
       motor number)
        Type of body
       License plate number
       Name of current owner
        Current address of owner
        Registered  gross laden weight of
        every commercial vehicle.

     II. Each program shall have a rec-
ords system that provides at least the
following services:
       Rapid entry of new  data into the
       records or data system
       Controls to eliminate unnecessary
       or unreasonable delay in obtaining
       data
       Rapid audio or visual response
       upon receipt at the records sta-
       tion of any priority request for
       status of vehicle possession au-
       thorization
       Data available for statistical com-
       pilation as needed by authorized
       sources
       Identification  and  ownership of
       vehicle sought for enforcement or
       other operation needs

    III. This program shall be periodically
evaluated by  the State, and the National
Highway Safety Bureau shall be provided
with an evaluation summary.
  With the availability of these records,
the tracing of vehicle ownership will be-
come significantly easier and the imposi-
tion of fines  for  vehicle  abandonment
could serve as a deterrent.
  In Maryland,  compliance with  this
standard is near completion. The requisite
data has been collected and formated for
computer input. The task yet remaining
is the actual inputing of the data.
  A second  argument often proffered
against such  a policy is that those  who
abandon vehicles can least afford to be
penalized (as  a matter of fact, the expense
involved in moving a junk car is frequent-
ly great). However, it must be remem-
bered that with the development of shred-
ders for processing scrap and the expected
increase in the demand for this more tech-
nically  acceptable scrap  by mills  and
foundaries, the value of auto carcasses   't-
will increase and,  if the  experience in
other locales is duplicated here, the de-
mand for  junk  cars will  be such  that
the owners of these vehicles will be able
to dispose of them at little or no cost.
Therefore, the effective date for legisla-
tion instituting penalties for vehicle aban-
donment should be held in abeyance until
the shredding operations are open.
                                        17

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   Reporting Abandoned Vehicles.  Not
 only must the flow of vehicle abandon-
 ments be stopped, but also the extant in-
 ventory of abandoned vehicles must be
 located and collected. In order to assure
 that such vehicles are reported, an aban-
 doned vehicle should be declared a public
 nuisance and its removel from public or
 private property to auto dismantlers and
 scrap processors required. In the event
 that vehicles on private property do not
 belong to the owner of that property, the
 property owner must have the resposibil-
 ty for reporting the presence of such ve-
 hicles and requesting their removal by the
 police.
   When the abandoned vehicle belongs to
 the  property owner, responsibility for re-
 moving the vehicle or having it removed
 belongs to the owner. In all instances, the
 failure to report  and/or  dispose  of a
 junked car should be a violation of law
 and result in a heavy  fine (suggested
 $100.00).
   In order that legislation could be ef-
 fected to require the reporting and removal
 of motor vehicles, the following definition
 of an abandoned motor vehicle is recom-
 mended:
       "Abandoned  Motor  Vehicle"
     means a motor vehicle that is in-
     operable, is over 8 years old, and
     is left unattended on public prop-
     erty for more than 48 hours; or a
     motor vehicle that is inoperable,
     is not validly licensed, and is left
     unattended on pubic or private
    property  over 48  hours; or a
     motor vehicle that has remained
     illegally on public property for a
     period of more  than 48 hours; or
     a motor vehicle that has remained
     on private property without the
     consent of the owner or person in
     control of the property for more
     than 48 hours.
  Under such a definition, a vehicle would
be considered abandoned even if it were on
the owner's property simply because it
was inoperable and not validly licensed. It
would be the responsibility of the vehicle
owner therefore either to license the vehi-
cle, to remove it, or have it removed.
  An exception to such a provision should
be provided for those who repair vehicles
as hobbyists or who have a vehicle they
are using for spare parts.  It is recom-
mended, therefore, that vehicles used for
parts still be reported but that a 6-month
exemption certificate be available to the
owner of the vehicle upon his stipulation
that the vehicle is being used as a source
of parts or awaiting repair. In no instance
should such exemptions be given for any
more than  two  vehicles  to any  one
individual.
  The owner of property shall be liable to
fine when any vehicle that fits the defini-
tion of abandoned, as provided above, is
discovered by the police on his property
unless he has reported the vehicle if he
does not own the vehicle or unless he has
obtained an  exemption certificate if he does
own  the  vehicle. It is further recom-
mended that after discovery of such vehi-
cles, the police provide a warning to the
property owner, and require that he take
action within seven (7) days or be fined.

   Ensuring Proper Disposal of Junked
Cars. The  two recommendations  made
above, the legislation of penalties for aban-
doning vehicles and for failing to report or
dispose of abandoned vehicles, are designed
to force the proper disposal of motor vehi-
cles. It is necessary, therefore, both to pro-
vide a proper method for vehicle disposal
and to publicize it.
   It is recommended that the following
procedure for vehicle disposal be imple-
mented: vehicle owners have the first re-
sponsibility to dispose of their unwanted
vehicles; this disposal should be accom-
plished  in one of two  ways; either the
vehicle  owner shall contact an  auto
wrecker to have his vehicle taken away,  or
the vehicle owner shall take his vehicle to*
central collection points provided for the
purpose of accepting worn-out vehicles. If
                                       18

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the vehicle owner is unable to take his un-
wanted vehicle to a free dumping area and
has contacted an auto wrecker who has re-
fused to accept his vehicle, the owner shall
contact the  police, who  shall have the
vehicle removed.
   A central collection point or free dump-
ing area should be provided by each county
and incorporated municipality and its loca-
tion well publicized. The  costs to the po-
litical subdivision of identifying and locat-
ing abandoner would  be  saved in every
instance in which the would;be  abandoner
brought in his own vehicle. Moreover, these
areas would proivde a reasonable alterna-
tiev to potential abandoners who  would
face a stiff penalty for vehicle abandon-
ment.
   In the event  the vehicle owner can
neither take his vehicle to a central col-
lection point,  nor contact  an auto wrecker
who  will  pick up his vehicle, the  owner
shall contact the police to have  his vehicle
removed.  Upon  request  for vehicle re-
moval, the police shall mail to the vehicle
owner a form  which will be completed and
returned  to the local police department.
This form should include the  make and
model of  vehicle to be collected, its loca-
tion, its  ownership (if known), and the
name of the auto wrecker  who was con-
tacted  and who  refused  to pick  up the
vehicle.
   Upon receipt of the completed form, the
police will pick up the vehicle using its
own personnel, equipment, and facilities
or will hire persons, equipment, and facili-
ties for the purpose of collecting and stor-
ing these vehicles.
   Laws and Titling Requirements.  The
imposition of penalties for abandoning ve-
hicles and for failing to report and/or re-
move abandoned vehicles, together with
the availability of central collection or free
dumping  yards for vehicle disposal and
the design and publicizing of an approved
and acceptable method for vehicle disposal
will all help to expedite the flow of junked
and abandoned vehicles back into the eco-
nomic cycle.

  Further legislation, however, is required
to ensure ease of impounding and dispos-
ing of vehicles. Many low value abandoned
and junked vehicles do not return to the
economic cycle because of titling require-
ments  or other provisions  of State  law
which impose costly and time consuming
requirements on motor vehicle sales and
transfers. The problem is that these laws
treat all  motor vehicles as if they were of
sufficient worth to warrant an owner to
incur these  costs.  However,  almost all
abandoned and junked autos have a very
low value. Since, basically, titling require-
ments are designed to  protect an owner's
interest in  substantial property, and yet
when that  property is a  motor vehicle it
loses its substantial character, it is desir-
able that the state exclude, under care-
fully  prescribed conditions,  low  value
abandoned motor vehicles from the nor-
mal  resale  titling requirements.  Some
States have already taken legislative action
in recognition of this need by passing sta-
tutes which, while continuing to protect
the interests of vehicle owners, also allow
public impounding and make a few excep-
tions to titling law. They have, thereby,
provided a means for surer and more expe-
ditious movement of  junked  and  aban-
doned motor vehicles  into the economic
cycle.

  Provisions to revise titling requirements
were incorporated in Maryland Senate Bill
No. 16, introduced January 17, 1968, and
these provisions [sections (b) through  (g)]
were based on recommended legislation
proposed by  the Committee of State Offi-
cials  on Suggested Legislation of  the
Council of State Governments. We recom-
mend that these provisions of Senate Bill
No. 16 be enacted as  they were written
with the possible exception of the require-
ment for sale of the vehicle at public auc-
tion; a potential change  to this provision
is discussed below.
                                        19
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   Solving Aesthetic and Pollution Prob-
lems.  The aesthetic and pollution prob-
lems created by  auto dismantlers and
scrap processors can be solved either by
the free action of these industries or by
legislation which requires that, in order
to continue in operation, firms in these in-
dustries meet specific criteria. Although
certain actions have been initiated by in-
dustry toward solution of the aesthetic
problem, particularly by beautification of
facilities (the most successful of which has
been Project Green/Screen sponsored by
the  Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel,
Inc.), a  drive along  most of our major
highways adjoining  metropolitan areas
clearly exhibits the scope of the problem
as it still exists. In order,  therefore, both
to ensure compliance with the Highway
Beautification Act and to remove these
scars from our environment, it is recom-
mended that the State adopt legislation
requiring: licensing of all auto dismantlers
and scrap processors;  screening of all auto
dismantlers' and scrap processors' facilities.
   Licensing of these facilities would pro-
vide the State with a record of the popula-
tion of firms engaged in these industries.
Further,  a  prerequisite  to  obtaining  a
license should be the meeting of screening
requirements.
   The following screening provisions are
recommended: all auto dismantlers' and
scrap processors' facilities must be shielded
or screened; such shielding or screening
shall be accomplished only after approval
of a shielding plan  prepared by the facility
owner and  submitted to a  responsible
State, county, or municipal officer to be
designated; the plans for shielding of each
facility shall be presented to the respon-
sible government representative within six
months subsequent to the  effective date of
the enabling legislation; within six months
of the approval of a shielding plan, the
facility owner shall have completed the
screening of his facility when he is using
screening other than trees or shrubs; in
the event he is using trees or shrubs, he
shall  complete his screening within six
months of the date of approval of his plan,
or as soon thereafter as the plants he has
selected become available, in which in-
stance a schedule must be determined and
presented to the responsible government
representative for approval.
  In the event an auto dismantler or scrap
processor fails to comply with these shield-
ing requirements he should be subject to
the loss of his license and  a fine of not
more  than $1,000.00, or by imprisonment
for not more than 5 years, or by both such
fine and imprisonment.
  In assessing the best methods for screen-
ing these facilities, we contacted; among
others, the deputy director of the National
Arboretum, and the Arnold Arboretum of
Harvard University for advice regarding
ornamentals to shield junked autos from
the public view.
   The Deputy Director of the  National
Arboretum recommended the Cryptomeria
japonica (Empress tree). In this latitude
the cryptomeria grows at the rate of ap-
proximately 5 to 6 feet a year. It is a very
bushy, pine-like tree with short needles,
but it absolutely shields things from view.
A tree approximately 8 years  old was
about 40 ft high and about 10 to  12 ft in
diameter at the base,  while one approxi-
mately 15 years old was perhaps 60 or 70
ft high and about 20 ft in diameter at the
base.  The diameter refers to the diameter
of the foliage. As anti-intrusion protection,
in lieu of the chain link fence, he recom-
mended the Gerbers julianne (Barberry).
This  particular  barberry  is very hardy
and has sharp thorns approximately one
and one half inches long. It grows into an
impenetrable hedge. As an alternate, one
might consider  the  Poncirus  trifoliate
(hardy orange). This bush also has thorns
approximately an inch  to an inch and one-
half long, but the specimen we saw did not
seem  to  be as effective a  screen as the
barberry.
   An excerpt from Arnoldra, a publica-
tion of the Arnold Arboretum,  Harvard
                                        20

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University, containing a further discussion
of plants suitable for screening junkyards
is presented in Appendix E.

  The air pollution problem caused by the
open burning of vehicles cannot be solved
immediately, but can  be abated. Until
scrap shredders are installed and operat-
ing in the State of Maryland, it  will be
necessary for auto dismantlers and scrap
processors to continue burning vehicles.
We, therefore,  recommend that interim
controlled open burning be permitted only
when the  air is  sufficiently unstable to en-
sure the dissipation of pollutants into the
atmosphere.

   Specifically,  we recommend: that open
burning of vehicles be permitted only after
the passage of  a cold front or if the lapse
rate is at least  a negative 3 degrees F per
1,000 ft of altitude; this meteorological con-
dition will result in an adequate dispersal of
pollutants; that a regulation to this effect
be implemented by the State Department
of Health; that the meteorologist in En-
vironmental Health Services determine
when open burning is permissible and have
prime responsibility for informing the auto
dismantlers and scrap processors of the
times when they may burn; that the radio
communications net currently used by the
auto dismantlers for finding demanded re-
placement parts can be used for the rapid
dissemination of the requisite meteorolog-
ical reports.

   We do  not believe that the imposition
of such a regulation will  be  harmful  to
these  industries  since:  cold fronts  pass
through Maryland on an average of 3 to 4
days,  and seldom more  than 10  days
apart, and conditions are such that burn-
ing could be permitted for  24  hours  or
more at each passage.

  Police/Industry Cooperation.  In Laws
and Titling Requirements, above, we sug-
gested that the requirement for sale of
impounded vehicles at  public  auction
might be  dropped. This recommendation
is based on the fact that it would be help-
ful if the police of the local political juris-
dictions  could develop  agreements with
the auto wreckers in their locale to pick
up all abandoned and junked vehicles re-
ported by the populace. These agreements
would provide that the consenting auto
wreckers would collect all vehicles of which
they were informed by the police.

   In return for providing this service,
dealers who signed such agreements would
be the only ones eligible to purchase any
unclaimed  vehicles  impounded by  the
police. Further, all vehicles delivered to
free dumping areas would be available to
participating dealers. Those dealers who
refused to sign such an agreement would
not be eligible to purchase or collect any
vehicles through the police or from the
free  dumping areas. In effect, exclusion
from certain privileges would be based on
noncooperation.

   In order  to permit the entering into
such  agreements by  police and auto
wreckers under the general police power,
the public auction provision as stated in
Senate  Bill  No.  16  would  have  to be
dropped and the police given the power to
invite only cooperating wreckers to vehicle
auctions.
       Contingency Considerations

   We anticipate that the combination of
industry activities and government actions
discussed  in  Resource  Utilization and
Recommended Government Action, above,
will  result in the solution  of the  seven
problems distinguished in the Disposal/
Reclaiming Cycle.  This  solution  is,  of
course, predicated on our forecasts  of the
future availability of scrap shredders and
increasing demand for technically accept-
able scrap resulting from the increased use
of electric furnaces and  the continuous
casting process. We feel, therefore, that  no
action by the government exceeding those
described above would be  desirable.
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  If, in future years, government action is
necessary in the actual collection and proc-
essing of junked cars or in the creation of
demand for scrap, and any actions in these
areas would be premature at this time or
for the next few years, there are two basic
alternative courses of action which govern-
ment can follow: first, artificially support-
ing the demand for scrap by subsidizing
the scrap industry, or second, entering into
the dismantling and scrap processing in-
dustries to supplement the market suffi-
ciently to clear it  of unwanted junked
vehicles.

  Subsidizing Scrap.   It has often been
suggested that subsidies should be used to
encourage the consumption of scrap. Sub-
sidies should always be considered undesir-
able because of economic and administra-
tive problems inherent in their use, and
should be considered only as  a last resort.
As has been shown, the difficulties con-
cerning the consumption of the unused
auto hulks promises to be resolved in the
near future, under a free market system,
as a result of the expansion of shredding
and increased demand for scrap. There-
fore, it appears premature to consider sub-
sidizing the scrap industry or its users at
this point in time.
   If, however, it becomes necessary to
subsidize the industry in future years, and
this decision can only be made after a re-
view of the effect of  shredding on the cur-
rent  situation, the  optimal method for
subsidization would appear to be the fol-
lowing: Impose a $10 charge on each new
vehicle sold in the State to be paid by the
vehicle purchaser; impose a $10 charge on
each vehicle registering in the State from
out of State;  place these monies into an
escrow fund; pay $10 from this fund to a
scrap processor for each hulk purchased
or accepted; limit the inventory a scrap
processor may hold.
  The imposition of a $10 charge on only
new cars or cars entering the State results
in less of a  bookkeeping difficulty  than
would exist if an attempt were made to
impose such a fee on all registered vehi-
cles. Since the number of vehicles leaving
service annually is substantially less than
the combined number of new cars sold in
the State plus vehicles entering the State,
the fees received would be more than ade-
quate to cover expenses, including those
for administering such a program, and re-
sidual funds could be applied to deficits in-
curred  in  the collection of  abandoned
vehicles.
  The payment of this subsidy or "bonus"
would serve to clear the economy of junked
vehicles since:  the subsidy would reduce
scrap processors costs substantially; some
of this  cost saving  would be passed to
scrap users since  only  by a lowering of
prices would demand be increased enough
to reduce processors  inventories and allow
the scrap processor to receive more vehi-
cles and thereby collect further subsidiza-
tion and increase his profits; a further por-
tion of this subsidy would be passed back
to the junk dealer since the hulks would be
worth more to the scrap processor than
formerly; the junk dealers would accept
junked cars more readily since their value
to him would increase as the value  of the
hulk increased; more abandoned vehicles
from a wider radius would be recovered
due to their increase  in value; the tempta-
tion to abandon vehicles would be reduced
as the value of the vehicle was increased.
   However, no  such action  is recom-
mended at the current time.

   Junkyards  of Last Resort.   A second
approach, and, if accumulating metallic
solid wastes becomes an acute problem, we
believe a more advisable approach  would
be the establishment of "junkyards of last
resort." These facilities would be govern-
ment owned and operated and their pri-
mary purpose would  be to supplement the
existing dismantling and processing  indus-
tries in order to clear the economy  of un-*
wanted vehicle hulks and other metallic
solid wastes.
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   We believe the establishment of these
facilities is preferable to subsidization of
industry in the unlikely event that either
will be required. The most pertinent rea-
sons for favoring this method of absorbing
undemanded junked vehicles into the eco-
nomic flow are:  the difficulties mentioned
above with the administration of subsidies;
the danger inherent in  providing a method
whereby an industry will be supported if
it fails to operate in a desirable manner;
the potential and likely reaction of indus-
try to the possibility of being supported in
the event that they do not solve this prob-
lem would  be to continue operation at cur-
rent levels in anticipation of future gov-
ernment support; if this occurs, then the
suggestion of possible future action  (subsi-
dizing) will result in the later necessity of
government  subsidization; such facilities
could provide a place of employment for
handicapped  persons, school dropouts, and
job corps personnel,  and thereby provide a
desirable social service.

   Government  facilities required to pro-
vide this service would be: scrap shredding
facilities  with sufficient capacity to process
residual  balances of metallic solid  wastes
remaining after private industry process-
ing; auto  dismantling and parts storage
facilities in each county; portable vehicle
flatteners and flat bed  trucks for transport
of vehicle hulks  to shredder(s).

   A preliminary attempt was made to de-
scribe more specifically the size and loca-
tion of the  requisite  facilities; however,
since we feel that the  ramifications of the
recent technological developments in the
steelmaking  and scrap processing indus-
tries are going to be extensive, design cri-
teria and cost analyses for needed facilities
made at  this  time would be no more than
guesses.  Prior to any such detailed anal-
ysis, it will be necessary to assess the re-
sults of scrap shredding and an adequate
analysis will require the operation of such
facilities for, we feel,  a minimum  of two
years.  Only  then will it  be  possible to
assess the  magnitude  of  any  residual
problems.

  Level of and Responsibility for Action

  The following paragraphs are  designed
to serve as a brief review of the problems
and the conclusions we have reached and
to indicate the level of government which
would have responsibility for action with
the enactment of legislation incorporating
the above recommendations.
   The A bandoning of Vehicles.  We have
recommended the imposition of  heavy
fines  for  vehicle abandonment.  Legisla-
tion is required at the State level to make
such penalties Statewide and effective. We
are in agreement with the provisions of
Senate Bill No.  16 regarding these penal-
ties. Enforcement of antiabandonment pro-
visions would be  accomplished  by local
police and courts using records available
from the  State Department of  Motor
Vehicles.
  Reporting  Abandoned  Vehicles.  We
have recommended that an abandoned ve-
hicle be defined by law as a public nui-
sance and the reporting and/or removal of
such vehicles be required, with penalties
for noncompliance. Such  a provision
should be incorporated in the same legisla-
tion as the antiabandoning provision out-
lined above.
  Ensuring  Proper Disposal of Junked
Cars.   Free dumping areas cannot be leg-
islated and the establishment, therefore, of
such facilities is a responsibility of local
political jurisdictions. Incorporated in the
same legislation as the antiabandoning and
reporting provisions recommended above
should be  a requirement  that  vehicle
owners contact at least one auto wrecker
before requesting removal of a vehicle by
police.
  Laws and Titling Requirements.  We
recommend that the provisions contained
in sections (b) through (g) of Senate Bill
No. 16 be enacted as written with the ex-
                                        23

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ception of the requirement for the sale of
vehicles at public auction. In place of this
provision we recommend that the police
departments of local political jurisdictions
be permitted to dispose of vehicles as they
wish.
  Solving Aesthetic and Pollution Prob-
lems.  We recommend that separate legis-
lation be written requiring the licensing of
auto dismantlers and scrap processors and
that as a prerequisite to operating  such
facilities a screening requirement be im-
posed, to include: a 6-month period after
the effective date during  which plans for
screening  must be developed  and pre-
sented; a 6 month period thereafter dur-
ing which screening must be accomplished;
a  requirement that  all future facilities
meet screening requirements prior to li-
censing; no legislation  concerning pollution
is required since laws  currently on the
books appear  adequate.  We do  recom-
mend, however,  the  regulation of open
burning to meet the following stipulations:
burning be permitted only after the pas-
sage of a cold front or if the lapse rate is
at least a negative 3 degrees F per 1,000 ft
altitude;  the  meteorologist in  Environ-
mental Health Services be responsible for
determining when such burning is allow-
able; that a regulation to this effect be
developed  by the State  Department  of
Health.

   The Systems—Current and Projected:
         An Integrated Overview
   This study  began  with  a description
of the junked  car,  what  happened  to it,
and the problems  that resulted  from a
systems approach. That  is, we  denned
the  boundaries or limits of our  system to
include the flow of the vehicle from  its
ceasing to be useful as a mode of transpor-
tation until the salvable materials it con-
tained were used (or could be used) by the
industries for  which they were raw ma-
terials. We then  defined the components
of this system and the problems  in its cur-
rent operation. Each component  and prob-
lem was analyzed, conclusions were drawn,
and recommendations were made to pro-
vide a solution to these problems. In pre-
vious sections, the problems, conclusions,
and recommendations have been considered
individually. This section is composed of
a systhesis of our conclusions  and recom-
mendations to estimate their integrated
effect on the operation of the junked car
disposal/reclaiming cycle. Four flow charts
are presented: Al (Exhibit V)—a modified
decision logic flow chart of activities com-
prising  the  disposal  and  collection  of
junked vehicles as they currently occur;
A2 (Exhibit VI)—a modified decision logic
flow chart of the operations of vehicle dis-
mantlers and scrap processors as they cur-
rently occur; Bl  (Exhibit VII)—a modified
decision logic flow chart of the activities
comprising the disposal and collection of
junked vehicles as they will occur incorpo-
rating our conclusions and recommenda-
tions;  B2  (Exhibit  VIII)-a  modified
decision logic flow chart of the operations
of vehicle dismantlers and scrap processors
as they will occur incorporating our rec-
ommendations and conclusions.
  The flow charts have been delimited to
include  those  activities and  decisions
which are related to the problems as they
currently exist.

  On both pairs of flow charts  (Al and A2
describing the extant situation, and Bl
and  Bl and B2 depicting the  anticipated
results of the recommended actions), 15
points in the flow have been designated by
circled numbers;  these points are the same
on each pair of charts and are discussed
briefly below.
   These have been selected to delineate,
statically, points in the flow where signifi-
cant changes are anticipated contingent
upon implementation of our recommenda-
tions.
   We will  first discuss, briefly, the  15
selected  in  flow charts  Al and A2—the*
current situation. We  will then analyze
the  same  15 points in  the  flow after
                                        24

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implementation of the proposed recom-
mendations. Finally, we will discuss one of
our conclusions in the dynamic situation,
in other words, we will trace the effect of
a single change through the entire flow to
describe the effect of this change on all
parts of the system.

The Current Situation.  The following 15
paragraphs relate to the 15 symbols in
flow charts Al and A2 (Exhibits V and VI)
accompanied  by the circled  numbers 1
through 15.
   © Know Proper Disposal Method?
As indicated earlier in this report, one of
the prime causes of vehicle abandonment
is the ignorance of vehicle owners regard-
ing the proper methods of vehicle disposal.
   © Cost of Proper  Disposal Excessive?
A vehicle owner is likely to consider any
costs which he incurs in disposing of a ve-
hicle to be excessive; these costs include
money expended, inconvenience, time lost.
In such an atmosphere, vehicle abandon-
ment is flourishing and will continue to
do so.
   © Junked Car on  Owner's Property
Since the owner did  not properly dispose
of the vehicle and since the police cannot
retrieve such vehicles, these vehicles re-
main abandoned.
   © Junked  Car  on  Other Private
     Property
If the property owner complains to police
about vehicle(s) abandoned on his prop-
erty, they are retrieved. However, from the
accumulation of junked cars on private
property, especially  farmlands and other
areas of low-population density, it is ap-
parent that frequently no such complaints
are forthcoming.
   © Junked Cars  on Public Property
Vehicles abandoned on public property are
retrieved by police or their agents after
discovery or complaint. Most vehicle re-
trievals are currently from public property.
   © Collection of Vehicles by Police
Conditions under, and methods by, which
vehicles are  retrieved vary greatly, and
the cost to citizens is high.
   © Trace Vehicle Ownership
A  manual system of  ownership record-
keeping makes information retrieval a slow
and tedious process.
   © Sale  of  Impounded  Vehicles  at
     Auction
Such sales are the rule and tend to reduce
the number of vehicles that would be re-
trieved by wreckers since the vehicles are
here available already collected at a cen-
tral point and, therefore, transportation
costs can be reduced.
   © Junk Dealer Accept Junked Car?
Frequently, due primarily to the low value
of vehicle hulks, auto dismantlers refuse  to
pick up or purchase junked cars.
   ® Junkyard Inventories
Inventories of junk vehicles are unsightly
and junk yards are normally located ad-
jacent  to transportation routes and open
to public scrutiny.
   © Demand for Hulks?
The demand for stripped hulks is a func-
tion of the demand for processed scrap.
Lack of demand results in stripped hulks
remaining in junkyard inventories.
   @ Burning of Vehicles Required?
Current methods of scrap processing re-
quire  that vehicle hulks  be cleaned by
burning.
   @ Scrapyard Inventory
The functions performed by scrap proces-
sors  result in their facilities being un-
sightly when not adequately screened.
   @ Demand for Processed Scrap?
When  demand for processed scrap is in-
sufficient, vehicle hulks remain in scrap-
yard inventories and purchases from auto
dismantlers and others are reduced.
   © Accepted by User?
When processed scrap is technically unac-
ceptable to scrap users, either the users do
not purchase it, or they refuse to accept
shipments which fail to meet  quality
specifications.

The Projected Situation.  The following
15 paragraphs relate to the 15 symbols in
flow charts Bl and  B2 accompanied by
the circled numbers 1 through 15, and the
                                       25

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hexagonal figures, indicating conclusions
and recommendations, related to each.
   ©  Know Proper Disposal Method?
Publicity of proposed method for proper
vehicle disposal combined with fines for
vehicle abandonment would eliminate this
cause of vehicle abandonment.
   ©  Cost of Disposal Excessive?
The imposition of heavy fines for vehicle
disposal,  together with the provision of
free vehicle dumping  areas as an alterna-
tive means of disposing of vehicles, would
ensure that improper disposal (abandon-
ment) of a vehicle  is  the  highest  cost
alternative open to vehicle owners, thereby
making abandonment the excessive cost
alternative.
   ©  Junked Car on  Vehicle  Owner's
     Property
The definition of an abandoned  auto as a
public nuisance and the requirement to re-
port and/or dispose of these vehicles or
face heavy penalties would ensure the re-
turn of these vehicles to  the economic flow.
   ©  Vehicle Abandoned on Other Private
      Property
The definition of an abandoned vehicle as
a public nuisance and the requirement that
such  vehicles be  reported  by  property
owners would ensure  that abandoned ve-
hicles would be located and could be col-
lected. The number of vehicles abandoned
on private property would decline signifi-
cantly with the imposition of heavy fines
for abandonment.
   ©  Vehicles  Abandoned  on  Public
      Property
The imposition of heavy fines for vehicle
abandonments will significantly reduce the
number of vehicles abandoned on public
property.
   © Vehicle Retrieval by Police or Agent
The  development of  Police/Industry
Agreements together  with the increasing
value off junked  vehicles due to improved
scrap processing techniques and increasing
demand for processed scrap will result in
the retrieval of a  larger percentage of a
reduced number of abandoned vehicles.
  © Trace Vehicle Ownership
The imposition of fines for abandonment
will reduce the number of vehicle abandon-
ments. The implementation  of  Federal
Highway Safety Standard 4.4.2 will pro-
vide an integrated and  accessible informa-
tion retrieval  system for  tracing vehicle
ownership,  and  reduced  titling require-
ments  will  permit  earlier  disposal  of
vehicles.  .
  © Sale of Impounded Vehicles
Reduced titling requirements will ensure
greater ease of vehicle disposal and the
implementation of police/industry agree-
ments, together with the increasing value
of junked vehicles, will result in higher
values of impounded vehicles and less ve-
hicles which will require impounding.
  © Junk Dealer Accept?
The combination of the increasing value
of junked  vehicles and  police/industry
agreements will ensure the flow of junked
vehicles back into the economic cycle.
  @ Junk Vehicle Inventory
Screening requirements  would hide un-
sightly  collections of  junked cars from
public view and the increasing demand for
scrap will  result  in a reduction  of the
junked car inventory.
  © Demand for Hulks?
The combination of increased quality scrap
produced by the shredding  method and the
exxpanding use of electric furnaces and the
continuous casting process will result in an
expanding demand for vehicle hulks by
scrap processing.
  © Require Burning?
Shredding  vehicle hulks  eliminates the
necessity of burning the hulks as a neces-
sary scrap preprocessing step.
  © Scrap Yard Inventory
As with junk yards, the scrap processor's
facility will be hidden from public view by
requiring the screening or shielding of such
facilities.
  @ Demand  for Processed Scrap?
The demand for  processed scrap will in;
crease due to: better quality processed
scrap produced by the  shredding method;
                                       26

-------
increased use of electric furnaces in steel
and casting production;  expanding use of
the continuous casting process by the steel
industry.
  '© Scrap Acceptable to Users?
The shredding process creates processed
scrap technically superior to that produced
by other methods and ensures that this
scrap meetes user requirements.
  Each of the 15 points  of difficulty indi-
cated in Charts Al and A2, which depict
the current  situation, will, as has  been
shown, be favorably effected by the imple-
mentation of the conclusions and recom-
mendations presented herein.
  Finally, we wish to present dynamically
the interrelationships between all problem
areas and all conclusions and recommen-
dations.
  Dynamic Relationships.  A matrix of
problems and the recommendations and
conclusions relating to each is presented as
Exhibit IX. The interrelationships which
will be affected by the conclusions drawn
and recommendations made are indicated
by  X's. Note that all components of the
matrix relate either directly or indirectly
to all other components. For example, re-
viewing Problem 2 as shown in Exhibit IX,
Excessive Cost of Disposal, it is clear that
a number of matrix elements affect the
cost of disposal: The development of a
proper method of disposal to inform the
populace of how to rid themselves of an
unwanted vehicle—ignorance of the alter-
natives open to a vehicle owner  can and
does lead to the selection of improper or
costly vehicle disposal alternatives. The
provision of free vehicle dumping areas pro-
vides  an  alternative to abandonment,
costly to the taxpayer, and to other forms
of disposal. The establishment of a fine to
penalize vehicle abandoners assigns a high
cost to  abandonment and makes proper
disposal a lesser cost and, therefore, a de-
sirable alternative. The definition of an
abandoned vehicle as a public nuisance
and the establishment of heavy penalties
for improper disposal makes the abandon-
ment of a vehicle on one's own property a
costly alternative, and, therefore, makes
proper disposal a comparatively lesser cost
alternative. Police/Industry Agreements
provide both a method whereby more ve-
hicles can be collected for less cost and, in
effect, a central information clearinghouse
for vehicle locations. Integrated, and auto-
mated,  Department  of  Motor Vehicle
records provide a basis  for quicker and
more accurate checks of titling records,
faster location of owners of abandoned ve-
hicles, and  easier title  clearance;  these
factors combine to reduce the cost of lo-
cating abandoners and reduce the time
and  costs incurred  when holding  im-
pounded vehicles. The increasing demand
for scrap resulting from the expanding use
of both electric furnaces and continuous
casting and from the higher quality of
shredded scrap results in a higher price
for processed scrap due to an upward shift
in the demand curve which leads to  a
higher value  for junked cars since  the
hulks have an  increased value. This in
turn will result in more junked cars being
collected and/or bought by junk dealers,
thereby reducing the number of potentially
abandoned vehicles or, stated differently,
providing a more attractive least cost al-
ternative for vehicle disposal. Thus we can
see that the problem of excessive costs is
diminished considerably by the interaction
of numerous conclusions and recommenda-
tions.
   The same kind of analysis can be per-
formed for each horizontal and vertical
column of the matrix and was performed
during the completion of this study.
                                        27

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to
00
Conclusions/
^" "~-*^^^_ Recommendations
7^ — -~_^.^
Problems ~"~~— «^_^_
1. Know Proper Disposal
Methods ?
2. Cost of Disposal
Excessive
3. Vehicle Abandoned on
Owner's Property
4. Vehicle Abandoned on
Other Private Property
5. Vehicle Abandoned on
Public Property
6. Vehicle Collection
7. Trace Vehicle Ownership
8* Sale of Impounded
Vehicles
9. Junk Dealer Accept?
10. Junk Yard Inventory
11. Demand for Stripped
Hulks ?
12. Burning Required?
13. Scrap Yard Inventory
14. Demand for Processed
Scrap
15. Scrap Acceptable to
Users

A.

X

X
X
X

X
X

X









B.

x

X
X
X

X
X

X









C

x

X

X

X
X


X








D.

x

X
X
X


X


X








F.



X
X
X

X
X

X
X









F.












X



x



G.



X

X

X

X
X









H.

X



X

X

X
X
X









1.



X







X
X

X

X


X

J.



X










X

X



K.



X




X

X
X
X

X





L
















X


X
M.















X





N.















X
X
x

X

0.
















X
x

X

p.
















X
x

X
            Legend



A. Develop Proper Disposal Method



B. Free Dumping Areas



C. Fine for Abandoning



0. Public Nuisance



E.  Police/Industry Agreements



f.  Screening Requirements



G. Integrated DMV Records



H. Reduced Titling Requirements



I.  Increasing Scrap Demand



J.  Higher Dollar Value of Scrap



K. Higher Dollar Value of Hulks



L Better Quality Scrap



M. Interim Controlled Burning



N. Shredding Process



0. Increasing Continuous Casting



P. Increasing Electric Furnaces
                                                EXHIBIT IX.   Matrix of Problems/Conclusions/Recommendations.

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           Appendix  A.   County   Data
  The information presented in this Ap-
pendix  was  obtained  primarily  from
county officials and county land use plans.
Where  data  was  obtained  from other
sources, that source is indicated.

           Allegany County

  Allegany County has six dumps and two
landfill  disposal sites, the latter of which
are sanitary landfills. These are run co-
operatively by the City of Cumberland,
the County and State Health Department.
These landfills are worked-out strip mine
sites. All disposal operations, public and
private, must use approved sanitary land-
fill or incinerator methods of disposal.
  There are 16 licensed junk yard oper-
ators of significant size in the  county. Half
of these are near the Pennsylvania and
West Virginia lines. There are also some
small part-time operators who salvage from
five to ten automobiles per  month. The
total county inventory of junked vehicles is
approximately 6,500 vehicles. The Alle-
gany County Comprehensive Master Plan
(1965) specifically treats automobile grave-
yards and auto wrecking yards. The Plan
proposes to control automobile graveyards.
There are regulations pertaining to auto
graveyards and  junk yards  in the new
County Zoning Ordinance: the yards must
be  out  of  public sight  and  enclosed or
screened. It is also suggested  that they be
limited to the industrial districts. The ma-
jority of the county, which is zoned agri-
cultural, can be used for auto wrecking
yards with  special approval.
  There are an estimated 150 cars per year
abandoned in Allegany County.
         Anne Arundel County

   There are nine refuse disposal sites in
the county—two are city sanitary landfills
(Annapolis), and seven are private dumps.
There are nineteen large junk yards and
approximately a hundred  smaller junk
yards (averaging four or five  vehicles each)
containing a total county junk yard inven-
tory of 3,000 vehicles. There are an esti-
mated 25 to 50 abandonments per year.
   Anne  Arundel County held a public
hearing on a proposed bill on Junk and
Salvage Yards  on  Monday, October  7,
1968. The  Bill deals with licensing, loca-
tion requirements, operation, enforcement,
and allowable exceptions to these provi-
sions.
            Baltimore City
  There are two privately operated dumps
and two city operated sanitary landfills.
There are 36 licensed junk yards in Balti-
more, and 2,800 to 3,000 abandoned auto-
mobiles are handled annually by the Police
Department. Abandonments are increasing
at about 10 percent per year.  These ve-
hicles are estimated to be only 40 percent
of the total abandonment.
  The present impounding yard is 2.4
acres and is severely overtaxed. One cause
for the congestion is the necessity for keep-
ing the cars until the titles clear. A new
yard of 15-20 acres is scheduled to be put
in use shortly.
  Last summer an antiburning ordinance
was put into effect in the city. This will
affect the junk yards operations adversely,
since local scrap processors currently re-
quire burned vehicle hulks.
                                      29

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           Baltimore County

  Baltimore County has four county sites
which are sanitary landfills. There are 32
vehicle junk yards by count, although it
is estimated that there are 50 or more.
There are 36,640 vehicles in junk yards by
count; it is estimated that there are ac-
tually 50,000 to 60,000.
  Police department records show 410 cars
abandoned from July 1, 1967 to June 1,
1968.

            Calvert County

  Calvert  County leases land for four
dumps. Maintenance of these dumps is
provided on a contract basis  with the
property owner. There are no solid waste
dumps and no junk yards as such in the
county. Garages, auto agencies, etc., make
arrangements for junk vehicle disposal.
There are  four yards  operated as junk
yards which include an estimated total of
400 cars.
  The estimated abandonment rate is 20
cars per year.

            Caroline County

  There  is  one sanitary landfill in the
planning stage and four existing public
dumps. Twelve junk yards of a total of
15 or 16 are licensed. There is a total in-
ventory of approximately 1,000 vehicles in
these junk yards.
  There  was a recent public hearing on a
junk ordinance which had an effective date
of October 1.  This ordinance required
screening of junk yards within 6 months
of the effective date.
  The annual abandonment rate is esti-
mated at 100 vehicles.

            Carroll County

  There are three city dumps and four
county sanitary landfills in Carroll County.
There are 31 vehicle junk yards with an
inventory of approximately 45,000 vehicles.
It is estimated that about 800 vehicles are
abandoned annually in the county. Many
abandoned cars away from the highways
have been observed from the air.

             Cecil County

  There are three city dumps and four
county dumps in Cecil County. These are
fairly  evenly  spread  throughout  the
county.
  There are 24 junk yards holding 2,540
vehicles in the county. These are primarily
in the northern half of the county.
  There are an estimated 1,000 cars aban-
doned in the county per year.

            Charles County

  There is one county dump in Charles
County.
  There are four large and 20 small junk
yards  in  the  county, whose inventory
totals 4,000 junk automobiles. The County
Comprehensive Plan notes a "widespread
incidence of junked and abandoned cars
throughout the county." There are an esti-
mated 1,000 cars per year  abandoned in
Charles County. Many of these abandoned
cars are from Washington, D.C.

           Dorchester County

  There is an estimated total of six city
and two county dumps. The county does
not own dumps but maintains them. The
dumps are fairly well distributed in the
county.
  There is one licensed junk dealer in the
county. There are also about 10 junk yards
holding 25  or  more  cars  and 20 to 25
smaller yards holding 15 cars or fewer. The
junk yards are fairly well spread  through-
out the county. Estimates of county in-
ventory of junked cars vary from 700 to
3,000 vehicles. Estimates of number of ve-
hicles abandoned annually  vary from 100
to 600.
  The county's Report on Refuse  Collec-
tion and Disposal cites abandoned  cars as
an  increasing problem. It also discounts
                                       30

-------
the use of landfills as depositories for the
vehicles and it recommends an interim
measure of storing vehicles at future land-
fill sites to await further handling and dis-
posal. The report also recommends inter-
county and possible interstate cooperation
in this  area.  According  to this report,
handling of abandoned vehicles "has be-
come a burden of the government."

            Frederick County

   Frederick County  has two city dumps
(one of which is under litigation by oppo-
nents) and one county dump. There are
also at least  six private  dumps—two  of
 which  are inside  the  Frederick  city
limits—engaged in  open  burning. There
are thirteen vehicle  junk yards holding
25 junk autos or more with a total county
inventory of 7,055 junk vehicles. 250 ve-
hicles are abandoned annually.

             Garrett County

   There are four dumps under county con-
trol  and operated  at county  expense.
There are old auto bodies in one dump
near  Oakland. There are six  municipal
dumps, one of which uses open burning.
It is planned to use abandoned strip mines
as landfills in two municipalities. There are
two private dumps in the county. Addi-
tional  county  sanitary  landfills  are
planned.
   There is no zoning in the county. A junk
yard ordinance exists, but it is difficult  to
enforce. There are three or four operating
junk yards and a minimum of ten  auto
graveyards containing 2,000 junked autos,
plus  at  least 1,000  vehicles   scattered
throughout the county.
   The estimated annual abandonment is
100 to 200 cars.

            Harford  County

  Harford County has three city dumps
and seven county dumps. These are dis-
tributed throughout the county. There are
19 junk  yards  and the junk yards' inven-
tory is 15,000 vehicles. There are an esti-
mated 3,000 vehicles abandoned annually.
  Most of the junk yards are along Route
40 in the southern part of the county.

            Howard County

  There are two county landfills in How-
ard County and  ten vehicle junk yards
with  a total inventory of 750  vehicles.
Seventy-five vehicles are abandoned in the
county per year. The  Howard County
General Plan recommends the initiation of
rehabilitation program areas along Route
1. The junk yards are in the vicinity of
the major routes  through the county, i.e.,
Routes 1 and 40.

              Kent County

   There are five  county dumps and one
city dump in Kent County, and one vehicle
junk yard in the center of Chestertown. No
estimate of annual vehicle abandonment
was available.

          Montgomery County

  There is one county site in Montgomery
County including an incinerator and a san-
itary land fill. There are three junk yards
located near the center of the county. The
total county inventory of junk cars is esti-
mated at 800. The annual  abandonment
estimate for the county is 1,800 cars.

         Prince Georges County

  There  are two city and two county
dumps and four  city operated sanitary
landfills in Prince Georges County. The
dumps are located principally in the north-
ern part of the county. Potential sanitary
landfill sites are adequate for future devel-
opment according to a Solid  Waste Dis-
posal Study.
  There is an estimated minimum  of 100
junk yards in the county—spread through-
out the county, although generally away
from Washington. An auto wrecker esti-
mates that there  are 25,000 cars in junk
                                       31

-------
yards in the county. The Department of
Licenses and Permits estimated 6,000 cars
are abandoned every year.

             Queen Anne's

  There are six county dumps dispersed
throughout the county.
  The county's  Comprehensive Master
Plan shows a total of 14 auto graveyards
and junk yards. Telephone conversations
with county personnel yielded a figure of
six junk  yards plus a number, perhaps
50, of service stations which serve as junk
yards. The  Master Plan notes that the
auto graveyards "are scattered generally
through the county, but mostly along the
railroad lines or main  highways." The
Plan  allows  zoning "General Industry
Areas" for such industries as junk and
scrap in several places throughout the
county. There are 2,420 acres proposed to
be zoned for this purpose.

           St. Mary's County

  There are  11  county  dumps in St.
Mary's County, and 200 acres of deep ra-
vines used for dumping cars; these are not
entirely  satisfactory,  as they provide
breeding areas for snakes, rodents, and
insects.
  There are 21 vehicle junk yards in the
county—owned by garages—with an esti-
mated 1,000 to 1,500 junked car inventory.
There are many complaints about the
junk yards. Some have vehicles piled three
high, creating an eyesore and a hazard.
  There are 500 cars abandoned per year
in the county.

           Somerset County

   Somerset County has one city dump
and six county dumps.
  There are 13 vehicle junk yards with 20
or more autos. The estimated total county
inventory of vehicles in junk yards is 3,000.
  An estimated 200 cars are abandoned
per year in Somerset County.
            Talbot County

  Talbot County has three dumps on rec-
ord. The City  of Easton operates a sani-
tary landfill and accepts refuse from ad-
joining county areas.
  There are four vehicle junk yards on
record with a record  inventory of 500
vehicles.
  The official  count for annual abandon-
ment of vehicles is 100, although one esti-
mator suggested  200  was  closer  to an
accurate figure.

          Washington County

  There are seven city sites, mostly land-
fills, and three county dumps in Washing-
ton County. Information on these dumps
is included in a report entitled Refuse Col-
lection  and Disposal in   Washington
County, Maryland.
  The junk yard inventory is 4,890 cars.
This information comes from a report
which was the result of a class project of
the Conservation of National Resources
Class of the Hagerstown Junior College in
1968.
  This report gives the following informa-
tion:  There is a  major scrap processor
(Maryland Pipe and Metal) in Hagerstown.
It has a shear  that can process 110 to 125
burned cars a  day. Since open burning is
now illegal, the company is considering
building an incinerator. The firm tries to
stockpile vehicles, as supply rate is uneven,
and draws junked  cars from a 50-mile
radius.

  There are good markets:
  •  Motor  blocks go  to  foundaries in
    Pennsylvania
  •  Copper goes to Middle Atlantic state
    refineries
  •  No. 2 bundled scrap goes to steel mills
    in Baltimore and Pittsburgh or are
    exported through  the port of Balti-
    more

Autos come to Hagerstown from West
Virginia, Pennsylvania, and  Virginia.
                                       32

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There is continuing buildup of single aban-
doned cars and multi-car concentrations
on private property.
  A junk dealer in Hagerstown estimated
that the annual abandonment rate in the
county was 350-400 cars. A recent city
police survey in Hagerstown showed 200
vehicles in alleys, on corner lots, etc.

          Wicomico County

  There are two city sites, including an
incinerator and eight county dumps in the
county.
  There are six junk yards—mostly in the
eastern part of the county. The  total
county junk yard inventory is approxi-
mately 1,800 cars.
  An estimated 100 cars are abandoned
annually in Wicomico County.

           Worcester County

  Worcester County has three city and
five county dumps.
  There are five vehicle junk yards with
an  estimated total inventory of 1,500
junked cars.
  The Comprehensive Master Plan in-
cludes suggestions for a comprehensive
zoning ordinance which will control or
eliminate automobile graveyards. There
are 49 acres devoted to auto graveyards
and junk yards in the county.
  Five hundred cars are abandoned each
year in Worcester County.
      Appendix   B.   Cars   Entering  the
                          Scrap   Cycle
   Before analyzing the alternative solu-
tions to the problems created by the in-
creasing number of junked cars introduced
into the scrap cycle annually, a data base
(consisting of actual and estimated num-
bers of junked cars in the Nation, Mary-
land, and its political subdivisions) was
collected. Using these data, a statistical
model  was developed which  correlated
well with historical scrappage of vehicles.
This model was based on the sales of ve-
hicles in previous years.
   To forecast  the future number of ve-
hicles entering the scrap cycle, the sales
of vehicles in Maryland and its political
subdivisions were forecast; using this data,
the predictive model was applied, resulting
in a projection of future junked cars in the
State.
    Statistical Model for Predicting
           Number of Cars
   Entering the Scrap  Cycle Annually

  The authors (MTI) developed a mathe-
 matical predictive model that very closely
 predicts the number of scrap automobiles
 nationally, in the State of Maryland, and,
 with somewhat less accuracy, for each
 separate county in the State of Maryland.
 It appears that the predictive method de-
 veloped  may  be highly  useful to scrap
 dealers who are considering making capital
 investments in such items as shredders
 and other disposal equipment.
  While the statistical methods used are
 relatively simple, the  important fact is
 that the method used appears to provide
 useful answers.  The statistical methods

-------
are discussed in some detail in this pre-
sentation; however, a simplified method of
using these  statistics is  also  presented.
The simplified method requires only that
the user determine the number of new
cars registered in the jurisdiction in the
geographical area in question over the
past 15 to 20 years. Each of these numbers
is then multiplied by a factor that is tab-
ulated, and  the results are summed to
give the best prediction for the number of
cars to enter the scrap cycle in that geo-
graphic area during the following years.
  MTI gratefully acknowledges the assist-
ance of Mr.  Wilfred H. Shields, Jr., many
other officials of the State of Maryland,
the Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, the
National Automobile Manufacturers As-
sociation, and  other persons  who  were
kind enough to assist in providing data for
this study.
  The Problem.   The problem consists of
finding a method of predicting, for any
given year,  the number of  automobiles
likely to be scrapped during that year.
There were  many data available that one
might consider could be used to make such
a prediction. These data were as follows:
(1) The number of cars entering the scrap
cycle annually (available from the Amer-
ican Automobile Manufacturers Associa-
tion). (2)  The number of factory car sales
(available from the American Automobile
Manufacturers Association).  (3) The num-
ber of automobiles exported per year and
the number  imported per year (available
from the U.S. Department of Commerce).
(4) The number of automobiles registered
in the State of Maryland for  each year
(available from the Department of Motor
Vehicles, State  of  Maryland). (5)  The
number of new cars sold in the State of
Maryland per year (available from the
Maryland Automobile Dealers Associa-
tion). (6)  The number of new automobiles
sold in each county per year  (available
from the Maryland Automobile Dealers
Association). (7) The number of cars reg-
istered in each county per year (available
from the Department of Motor Vehicles,
State of Maryland).
   No data were available from the Auto
Dismantlers of the State of Maryland re-
garding the number of cars actually enter-
ing the scrap cycle annually.
   Other factors that we thought might in-
fluence the scrap cycle included the effect
of production  slowdown during  World
War II, variations in the economic cycle,
number of used cars imported into a State,
automobile taxation policy, the value of
scrap,  and other variables that might in-
fluence individuals either to dispose  of cars
prematurely or to retain them for an ab-
normally long period.
   Technical Approach.  Before attempt-
ing a multivariant analysis involving all
of the  possible influences on the number
of cars entering the scrap cycle annually,
we decided to determine if simple methods
could provide estimates accurate to better
than 5 or 10 percent; as we believed that
such accuracy would be sufficient. To de-
termine whether a simple analysis might
provide meaningful data to the above ac-
curacy, we did the following.
   We hypothesized a probability density
function of the survival of new automo-
biles:
                   2   _J1
             f(t)= — e "*
                  iry

               O =£ £=£ + 00
where:
   y — mean life in years
  M=time in years since manufacture.

It is to be noted that this expression has
the same form as the normal probability
function, and it is a convenient approxima-
tion since the normal function is tabulated.
   Using data consisting of the number of
new cars introduced into the United States
each year, and operating on these numbers
by the assumed standard distribution, we
listed the probable number of cars  pro-
duced in any given year that might be
                                       34

-------
scrapped in any other year.  We did this
for several distributions—using values for
y of 6.4, 7.6 and 8 years.

   We determined the number of cars that
were predicted to be scrapped year-by-year
based solely on the number  of new cars
produced during previous years.

   We compared the predictive results for
the three  values y  (mean life) with the
number of cars actually entering the scrap
cycle.

   The result on a nationwide basis en-
couraged us to apply the same method to
the State  of Maryland. Here a difficulty
arose because  data were  not available
from any source regarding the actual num-
ber of cars scrapped in any given year.
To determine the  best estimate of the
number of cars actually scrapped in any
given year, we took the number  of cars
registered during the previous year, added
this number to the number of new cars
registered during the year in question, and
subtracted from this sum the  number of
cars registered during the given year. This
determination is, of course,  not strictly
accurate,  as it makes the tacit assumption
that operating used cars do  not enter or
leave the  State.

   We then compared the calculated num-
ber of vehicles scrapped by year with the
number predicted by our statistical formu-
lation.  The  results were sufficiently en-
couraging to cause us to follow the same
procedure in three representative counties
of Maryland. To facilitate calculations of
the fraction of cars produced in a given
year that would be scrapped in another
year, we used the following formulation:
where:
P=the probability of a car lasting exactly
    i years
 £=time in years since manufacture
y=mean life in years.
  Using nationwide data, a computer pro-
gram was written to determine the num-
ber of cars scrapped in the last 10 scrap
years for y equal to 7.2, 7.6, and 8 years.
It was found that a mean life  (y) of 8
years yielded the best  fit to the actual
scrappage data on a nationwide basis for
the past 10 scrap years.
  However, a mean life of 7.6 years pro-
vides a much better fit for the past 5 scrap
years. The data seem to be suggesting that
people in recent times tend to retain their
automobile for, perhaps, half a year less
than they did a decade ago.
  Three technical points about our formu-
lation might  be argued: (1) The choice of
the distribution. It might well be argued
that another distribution would be more
appropriate, and, indeed, another distribu-
tion could be determined directly by using
the following formulation:
where:

P(N-i) = t}\e probability of a car lasting
exactly N minus i years
Mi = the number of cars manufactured in
the year i.

   We know SN and Mi for some 23 years.
Therefore, we could form a set of 23 simul-
taneous linear equations and solve for the
P(N-i). In the alternate, we would make the
reasonable assumption that no car enters
the scrap cycle beyond an age of 20 years,
form three different sets of 20 simultane-
ous linear equations, and solve for Ps us-
ing what would then amount essentially
to three different sets of data. We did not
do so because it is apparent that World
War II had a major effect  on the scrap
cycle of automobiles, and we believe that
only inthe present decade has the effect
of World War II, and, possibly the Korean
War, ceased to have significant effects on
the number of cars scrapped. In other
words, we are interested in recent history
as  opposed to ancient  history—which was
                                        35

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                                    TABLE 1
            NATIONWIDE SCRAPPAGE FIGURES— ACTUAL VERSUS PREDICTED
Scrap year
1957 	
1958
1959 	
1960
1961 	
1962 	

1963 	
1964
1965 	
1966 	
1967

Total ...

Actual no.
scrapped
... 3,700,000
3 600 000
... 4,600,000
4,200,000
... 4,400,000
... 4,700,000

... 5,300,000
5,500,000
... 6,000,000
... 6,300,000
6,600,000

... 29,700,000

Predicted number scrapped
2/ = 7.2
4,065,591
4,381,959
4,517,438
4,761,155
5,050,895
5,209,577
5,456,171
5,747,278
6,024,826
6,430,631
6,751,584
30,410,490
Difference
-365,591
-781,959
+ 82,562
-561,155
-650,895
-509,577
-156,171
-247,278
-24,826
-130,631
-151,584
-710,490
2/ = 7.6
3,923,291
4,238,788
4,383,504
4,635,061
4,931,748
5,098,936
5,354,190
5,648,006
5,930,526
6,335,270
6,655,888
29,923,880
Difference
-223,291
-638,788
+ 216,496
-435,061
-531,748
-398,936
-54,190
- 148,006
-69,474
-35,270
-55,888
-362,828
» = 8
3,663,792
3,952,650
4,082,545
4,303,860
4,579,541
4,731,304
4,972,430
5,244,667
5,507,985
5,889,590
6,194,419
27,809,091
Difference
+ 36,208
-352,650
+ 517,455
-103,860
-179,541
-31,304
+ 327,570
+ 255,333
+ 492,015
+ 410,410
+ 405,581
+ 1,890,909
certainly affected by major  national
events. (2) The formulation used tacitly
assumes that no cars produced in a given
year will be scrapped during that year.
This assumption is clearly invalid, as a
certain number of cars produced in a given
year will certainly encounter severe acci-
dents and be scrapped during the very
year in which they are introduced into the
cycle.  However, the purpose of developing
this model was to make predictions for
the future,  and, for that reason, the use-
fulness of the model  would be greatly in-
hibited if it would be necessary to con-
sider say, on a month-to-month basis, the
new cars introduced into the cycle during
any given scrap year. The usefulness of
any predictive model is, of course, greatly
compromised if it does not permit one to
peer into the future.  (3) Additionally, we
should note that, by evaluating the def-
inite integral in increments of exactly 1
year, we make the tacit assumption that
all cars in a given scrap year are scrapped
at the beginning of the scrap year,  and
that all cars produced in a preceding year
are introduced into the cycle at midyear.
The net effect is that these tacit assump-
tions tend to wipe  out the error made by
considering that no cars produced during
a given year are scrapped in that year.
In  any event, as will be shown,  the
method that we have developed works in
predicting, on a nationwide, State, and
county basis, the number of cars which
will likely be scrapped in each of the last
5 years.
  The distribution used in this project is
equivalent to one half of the normal dis-
tribution. If it is desired to evaluate the
fraction  of cars scrapped for  values of
mean life (y) and time (t) other than those
shown in this report, a table of areas of
the normal curve can be used.  The usual
table of areas in one half of a normal curve
can be used by entering with

                                   and
multiplying the table value by two.
  It could well be argued that the normal
distribution results in an unreal prediction
regarding relatively new cars. For example,
using the normal distribution and a mean
life of 8 years, the distribution assumes
that some 8 percent of the cars produced
during a given year will be scrapped dur-
ing the following year— a figure clearly too
high. However, the fact that the normal
distribution fits the data better than any
other distribution tried, suggests that the
very existence of a number of new cars
may force other older cars to be retired—
perhaps  prematurely. Use of the normal
distribution tends to take into account
this forcing function that may cause tKe
public to retire used cars at an accelerated
rate because of the existence of new cars.
                                       36

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Despite the fact that the normal distribu-
tion so closely predicts the actual scrap-
page of the past 5 years, we have  tried
other distributions, specifically the Poisson
and the Gamma. Neither of these distribu-
tions provides as good a data fit as does the
normal distribution.
  Using the probability function that was
used for this project  (if the cars have a
mean life of 7.6 years), a car would have
a 50 percent probability of surviving be-
yond 6.5 years.
  It is noted that we have been discussing
the number of cars entering the scrap
cycle annually. The number actually re-
duced to scrap and sold to steel mills has
      not been estimated. Certainly, the lag be-
      tween the time a hulk enters the cycle
      until it is reduced to scrap depends heav-
      ily on the economics of the local situation.
      In areas with shredders, there is  ample
      evidence that the hulk inventory is not
      increasing as  rapidly as it is for  areas
      without shredders.
        Results.   The results of our nationwide
      prediction are given in Table 1 for values
      of y of 7.2, 7.6, and 8 years. It will be
      noted at once that the data for a value of
      7.6 years match within 2 percent the act-
      ual number of cars scrapped during the
      last 5  years. Table  2  depicts  the  same
      data for the State of Maryland for a value
                                     TABLE 2
             MARYLAND SCRAPPAGE FIGURES—ACTUAL VERSUS PREDICTED
Scrap yea
1957
1958 	
1959 	 	
1960
1961 	
1962 	
1963 	
1964 .
1965
1966
1967 	

Best
estimate of
scrapped
	 60,200
	 10,470
	 50,964
	 85,455
	 54,038
	 62,826
	 86,358
	 92,510
129,861
115,559


Predicted number scrapped
0 = 7.2 Difference
58,704
64,154
67,494
71,911
77,301
81,872
87,624
94,919
102,698
111,734
119,982 .

+ 1,496
-53,684
-16,530
+ 13,544
-23,263
-19,046
-1,256
-2,409
+ 27,163
+ 3,825

0 = 7.6 Difference
56,590
61,976
65,371
69,846
75,289
79,895
85,685
92,904
100,603
109,525
117,656 ..

+ 3,610
-51,506
-14,407
+ 15,609
-21,151
-17,069
+ 673
-394
+ 29,258
+ 6,034

      Total.
748,241    818,411    -70,160
797,684
-49,343
                                     TABLE 3
            GARRETT COUNTY SCRAPPAGE FIGURES—ACTUAL VERSUS PREDICTED
Scrap year
1957 	
1958 	
1959 	
1960
1961 .. . 	
1962 	
1963 . . 	
1964 	
1965 	
1966 	
1967 	

Total 	

Best
estimate of
actual no.
scrapped
	 351
	 277
	 20
	 407
	 546
	 214
	 234
	 230
	 397
	 653
	 786

	 4,115

Predicted number scrapped
0 = 7.2
321
347
353
361
374
378
387
403
421
447
470
4,262
Difference
+ 30
-70
-333
+ 45
+ 172
-164
-153
-173
-24
+ 206
+ 316
-148
0 = 7.6
310
335
343
351
366
371
380
398
416
442
465
4,177
Difference
+ 40
-58
-323
+ 56
+ 180
-157
-146
-168
-19
+ 211
+ 321
-63
37

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                                    TABLE 4
       QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTY SCRAPPAGE FIGURES—ACTUAL VERSUS PREDICTED
Scrap year
1957 	
1958
1959 	
1960
1961 	
1962
1963 	
1964
1965
1966 	
1967

Total 	

Best
estimate of
actual no.
scrapped
	 372
	 210
	 266
	 275
	 310
	 240
	 307
	 405
	 270
	 431
	 413

	 3,499

Predicted number scrapped
2/=7.2
284
308
317
333
352
362
376
398
414
436
456
4,036
Difference
+ 88
-98
-51
-58
-42
-122
-69
+ 7
-144
u
-43
-537
2, = 7.6
310
335
343
351
366
371
380
398
416
442
465
4,177
Difference
+ 62
-125
-77
-76
-56
-131
-71
+ 7
-146
-11
-52
-676
of 7.2 years and for a value of 7.6 years.
The actual number of cars scrapped in
the State of Maryland was not available
from industry sources. We, therefore,
made the best estimate of the number
scrapped in any one of the past years by
adding to the registrations of the previous
year the new cars sold in the State of
Maryland during the given year. Clearly,
these calculations are  based on the as-
sumption that there is no net influx or
egress of operable used cars during the
year in question. This appeared to be the
case for the  State of Maryland, because
a value of 7.6 years very closely predicts
the number of cars calculated to have
been scrapped in the past 5 years. Tables
3, 4, and 5 present the same sort of data
for  three representative counties of the
State of Maryland: Garrett, Queen Anne,
and Prince George's.
  Simplified Method of Using the Statis-
tics.  MTI has programmed this predic-
tive model on a digital computer, and we
are in a position to provide predictive
services for those who wish  to obtain
them from us. Our computer program is
such that it is capable of taking into ac-
count local historical variances to provide
a highly accurate estimate of scrap auto-
mobile generation in future years.  How-
ever, we believed it desirable to provide
                                   TABLE 5
       PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY SCRAPPAGE FIGURES—ACTUAL VERSUS PREDICTED
Scrap year
1957 	
1958 	
1959 	
1960 	
1961 	
1962 	
1963 	
1964 	
1965 	
1966 	
1967 	

Total 	

Best
estimate of
scrapped
5 303
	 4558
	 2794
	 6 634
10 087
	 8 547
9 273
11 295
13 310
17 734
16 853

106,388

Predicted number scrapped
y=7.2 Difference
6,125
6,846
7,428
8,224
9,239
10,218
11,460
13,007
14,858
16,965
18,971
123,341
-822
-2,288
-4,634
-1,590
+ 848
-1,671
-2,187
-1,712
-1,548
+ 769
-2,118
-16,953
2/ = 7.6 Difference
5,880
6,585
7,158
7,945
8,947
9,910
11,128
12,639
14,444
16,498
18,547
119,681
-577
-2,027
-4,364
-1,311
+ 1,140
-1,363
-1,855
-1,344
1 134
+ 1,236
-1,694
-13,293
38

-------
an approximate method that can be used
by anyone with access to an adding ma-
chine (Table 6). This table is based on a
value of y of 7.6 years. To use Table 6,
proceed as follows: (1) Enter on the top
the scrap year for which a prediction is
to be made. Enter in column 1 the years,
beginning at the top with the year pre-
ceding the scrap year. Enter in column 2
the number of new cars registered in the
geographical area in question, beginning
at the top of the table with the new cars
introduced the year immediately prior to
the year in question. (2) Multiply each of
               the numbers in column 2 by the factor
               given in column 3 and enter the results in
               column 4. The sum of the numbers in col-
               umn 4 is the number of cars predicted to
               enter the scrap cycle in the year written
               on the top of the page.  To determine the
               probable number of new cars to be en-
               tered for ears that have not yet occurred.
               plot the number of new cars introduced
               into the cycle  against time as shown
               in Figure 1. Extend the curve to future
               years and pick off the probable number of
               cars that will be introduced in the cycle
               in future years.
                                    TABLE 6
            REFERENCE TABLE FOR CALCULATING THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES
                      ENTERING SCRAP CYCLE IN A GIVEN YEAR
            Sales year
                                               B
                                  AxB =
No. new cars
 introduced
   Fraction of
vehicles produced
in sales year and
scrapped in 19"n"
 Product equals
 the no. vehicles
  produced in
 "sales year &
scrapped in 19n"
19"n-l" A(n-l) .084 C(n-l)
19"n-2" A(n-2) .083 C(n-2)
19"n-3" A(n-3) .081 C(n-3)
19"n-4"
19"n-5"
19"n-6"
19"n-7"
19"n-8"
19"n-9"
19"n-10"
19"n-ll"
19"n-12"
19"n-13"
19"n-14"
19"n-15"
19"n-16"
19"n-17"
19"n-18"
19"n-19"
.078
.075
.071
.066
.061
.056
.051
.046
.040
.035
.031
.026
.022
.019
.015
.013
















19"n-20" A(n-20) .010 C(n-20)
                        Total no. vehicles scrapped in 19"n" =
                                       39

-------
Vehicle Sales in Maryland—A Projection

  Introduction.  Subsequent to checking
the model against actual scrappage data,
a forecast of future car sales in Maryland
and its political subdivisions was made.
The primary purpose of this projection
was to provide a basis to which the model
described above could be aplied in de-
termining the future number and distri-
bution of junked cars in Maryland.

  The Technical Approach.  Prior to
projecting new car sales for Maryland and
its political subdivisions, historical sales
data was collected for all the counties of
Maryland,  the city of Baltimore, and the
State of  Maryland. Next, forecasts of fu-
ture auto sales made by other organiza-
tions were  examined. Prior to developing
a sophisticated model for projecting fu-
ture sales,  several straightforward tech-
niques  were  employed  to determine
whether  or not projections made on these
bases would provide future sales estimates
in line with general expectations concern-
ing the new car market.


  The linear least squares method for de-
veloping trend lines  was selected to pro-
ject future  car sales since: (1) The result-
ant data  correlated with projections made
by other organizations. (2) The method
is straightforward and avoids the hazards
of compounding errors present in a more
sophisticated model  while implicitely in-
corporating factors  that create  demand
for new automobiles (such as greater per
capita income, population growth, increas-
ing mobility and leisure time) since past
increases in motor vehicle sales have re-
sulted from the growth trend present in
these variables.
  A least squares regression equation of
the form
                       Q(X-X)
where:
y=the actual number of vehicles sold in
   year X
y=the average (mean) number of vehicles
   sold in the years considered
X=am actual year in the sample
X=ihe median year in the sample used.
  The resultant  trend curve upon solu-
tion of the above equation is of the form
Y—a0 + aX
where:
 y=the number of cars sold in year X
X — the year for which the  projection is
    made
a0 — a calculated constant
al —the annual incremental increase in ve-
   hicle sales.
  Using this formulation, projections for
vehicle sales in Maryland and its political
subdivisions presented on the following
pages were developed. Actual car sales for
1947 through 1967 provided that base data
for these projections. The resultant pro-
jections are  presented in Exhibit IV in the
text.
       Projection of Junked Cars
   Entering the Scrap Cycle  Annually
       From  1968 Through  1979
  By applying the predictive  model de-
scribed earlier to the new car sales forecasts
above, projections of the number of junked
cars entering  the scrap cycle from 1968
through 1979 were made for the State  and
counties of Maryland and the city of Bal-
timore. The projections, by year, are pre-
sented in Exhibit III  in the  text. The
projected number  of vehicles to be scrapped
in Maryland in the year 1979 is 193,543, an
increase of nearly 80,000 over the estimated
115,559 vehicles scrapped in 1967.
                                        40

-------
  Appendix  C.  Long-Range Forecasts
Any year now, we will break through the 10,000,000-
car-year barrier. By the late 1970's, we will show no
particular elation over a 13,000,000-year.
LEE A. IACOCCA
Executive Vice President
North American Automotive
  Operations

Ford Motor Company
Press release (10-14-68)
By 1975, we expect to have more than 118 million
motor vehicles, and the total should exceed 130 mil-
lion by 1980. The Nation will need well over 8 mil-
lion automobiles and more than 1.5 million trucks
and buses in each of the next few years. By 1976,
we will need over 10 million automobiles plus 2 mil-
lion trucks and buses each year. By 1980, we'll have
a total motor vehicle market in excess of 13 million
vehicles a year.

In 1985, when the U.S. population will be about 265
million persons, some 144 million motor vehicles will
be on the move, traveling 1.5 trillion miles a year.
This compares  with today's 100 million vehicles
traveling 960 billion miles annually.

The trucking industry in 1980 will show 24 million
trucks, 3 million new trucks  per year, intercity
freight revenues of $24 billion, and 738 billion inter-
city ton-miles of freight service.

Passenger car sales outside the United States and
Canada of 13,500,000 units a year by 1976 are fore-
seen—a number that would have been astounding
just a few years ago. Such sales would represent a
48 percent increase over the number of passenger
cars sold in 1967, and a growth rate higher than that
expected for the auto industry in the United States
and Canada over the same period.

                                    41
E. M. COPE
Chief, Highway Statistics Divison
U.S. Department of Transporta-
  tion
(9-11-68)
Steelways
(9-68)
American Trucking Association
Transportation and Trucking in
1980
(8-68)

ROBERT STEVENSON
Executve Vice President
Overseas Automotive and Tractor
  Operations
Ford Motor Company
Press release (4-2-68)

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                            PERCENT OWNERSHIP IN 1975
Household income (in 1967 dol
Under $3,000 	
$3 000 to $5 000 	
$5 000 to $7 500 	
$7 500 to $10 000
$10 000 to $15 000
$15 000 and over 	

Total 	

liv"1* Tnfnl
Age of household head
Under
35
	 7.7
	 11.2
	 20.2
	 22.6
	 24.8
	 13.5

	 100.0

1.3
3.0
7.9
8.9
7.7
1.9
30.7
35-44
0.6
1.4
3.5
4.6
6.3
3.7
20.1
45-54 55-64 65 and
over
1.0
1.6
3.2
4.4
6.3
4.7
21.2
1.4
2.0
3.1
3.5
3.4
3.2
16.6
3.4
3.2
2.5
1.2
1.1
*
11.4
  *Percentage insignificant.

     It is estimated that in the midseventies, 81 percent of the nation's households will
own at least one car, and over a third of these, two or more. This will add up to about 80
million family cars on the road in 1975. The number of automobiles owned by the nation's
families has increased at an average annual rate of over 3.5 percent thus far in the 1960's,
but the pace is expected to decelerate to about 3.0 percent between now and the mid-
1970's.
Source: The Conference Board Record, March 1968.
Foreign-car sales in the United States will more than
double present volume to reach 14 percent of the
market by 1975. Import car sales would reach a mil-
lion by 1970 and go on to 1.6 million by 1975, com-
pared with the peak of 773,200 in 1967.

      Statistical Department
      Automobile Manufacturers Association
      April 22, 1968
M. S. MCLAUGHLIN
Vice President
Ford Motor Company
Detroit Daily Press (1-17-68)
Motor vehicle registrations now stand at 94 million,
but are expected to increase 38 percent during the
next 13 years, reaching 130 million by 1980. During
20 years after that, they are projected to 182 mil-
lion, another 40 percent increase.
  Travel projections are even more spectacular with
vehicle miles increasing 45 percent by 1980, and an-
other 49 percent between 1980 and 2000.
J. O. MATTSON
President
Automotive Safety Foundation
Press release (11-13-67)
By the beginning of the next decade, we look for
new car sales to reach the neighborhood of 10 mil-
lion units a year.  We expect to see new car sales of
13 million before 1980. The majority of travel in the
ROBERT ANDERSON
Vice President
Chrysler Corporation
The Evening Star (8-25-67)
                                        42

-------
cities will be by car, and the majority of goods will
be delivered by truck by 1980, when auto and truck
sales will total 15.3 million units.
Vehicle registration in the last 2 decades has almost
tripled, increasing from slightly over 34 million in
1947 to today's 94 million. By 1975, our vehicle pop-
ulation will be nearly 120 million.
LOWELL K. BRIDWELL
Federal Highway Administrator
U.S. Department of Transporta-
  tion
Press release (6-26-67)
The industry continues to look forward to a 10-mil-
lion car year by 1975. The share of new car sales to
families owning two or more automobiles increased
from 31 percent in  1960 to 43 percent in 1965, and
is expected to reach 54 percent by 1970.
VIRGIL E. BOYD
President
Chrysler Corporation
Press release (6-14-67)
The basic auto market in 1970 will run to approxi-
mately 9,500,000 new cars (including imports). That's
only 200,000 more than the 9,300,000 new cars actu-
ally sold in the United States in 1965. In the early
1970's, unit demand will quicken largely because all
those extra cars sold in the mid-1960's will begin to
wear  out. The market  in 1975  will  amount to
11,500,000 new cars.

  Because sales were drab in the late 1950's and the
first 2 years of the 1960's, the basic scrappage rate,
which is now 6 million, will increase slowly over the
next few years to 6.7 million in 1970.  Later on, be-
cause the mid-1960's were big new-car years, scrap-
page  will increase more quickly to 8.2 million in
1975.  First time purchase of cars by households are
projected to total 1,200,000 in 1970 and 1,350,000 in
1975.  Two-car demand should add 1,100,000 autos
to the market in 1970 and 1,400,000 in 1975.
Fortune
(6-1-67)
Despite fluctuations, we expect that U.S. demand
will reach a level of almost 12 million cars by 1976.
Factors that will bring about the increased demand
are: (1) The car-buying population (people age 18
and older) will increase by 22 million or 17.5 percent
ARJAY MILLER
President
Ford Motor Company
Press release (5-18-67)
                                        43

-------
in the next 10 years. (2) A greater percentage in-
crease is expected in the number of families earning
$10,000 and over. From 12.2 million families in 1966,
the number is expected to reach 24.2 million by
1976.
Despite the current sales decline, the automotive in-
dustry will have a 10-million car year by 1970 and a
12-million car year by 1975. Truck sales should hit
1.8 million by 1970 and 2 million by the mid-1970's.
JOHN J. RICCARDO
Group Vice President
Chrysler Corporation
Detroit News (4-11-67)
A 10-million-car year can't be far off, and a 12 mil-
lion-year is in sight within a decade.
L. B. SMITH
President
A. O. Smith Corporation
Automotive News (3-20-67)

1963 	
1964 	
1965 	
1966E 	
1967E
1968E
1969E 	
1970E 	

Cars in use
Jan. 1
(million)
	 59.66
	 61.90
	 64.26
	 67.58
70.53
72 78
	 75.78
	 79.28

New cars
registered
year
(million)
7.56
8.07
9.31
9.20
8.00
9.25
10.50
12.50

Cars
scrapped
during year
(million)
5.32
5.71
E*6.00
6.25
5.75
6.25
7.00
8.00

  *E, estimated. Source: Robert W. Baird and Company.
In 1965, we had record automobile sales of 9.3 mil-
lion. With projections of substantially higher in-
comes and larger number of households, it would
not be surprising if new car purchases exceed 13
million in 1975. Purchases of parts and accessories
should also show a very sharp rise. Total purchases
of autos and parts are projected to increase more
than 70 percent by 1975 .
ALEXANDER B. TROWBRIDGE
Acting Secretary of Commerce
U.S. Department of Commerce
Press release (2-6-67)
The same powerful forces that have created the
steadily growing demand for cars over the past 5
years will continue to operate in the years ahead.
These forces include the steady growth of the popu-
lation and the addition each year of millions of po-
LYNN TOWNSEND
Chairman
Chrysler Corporation
Press release (12-16-66)
                                       44

-------
tential new customers, the rise in personal income,
and the increasing reliance upon the automobile for
personal transportation. In the early 1970's, we ex-
pect these forces to create a yearly demand ranging
between 9 and 12 million new cars.

U.S. car sales are projected to increase at a com-
pound rate of 3.4 percent a year—to normal levels
of about 10 million car sales a year by 1970, and
11.5 million by 1975. Dollar sales of new cars, at con-
stant car prices, will increase at a  compound rate of
4.6 percent a year. In comparable terms, Ford pro-
jects growth in truck sales of more than 5 percent a
year. Unit car sales abroad will grow at a compound
rate of 6 percent a year for the next 5 years taper-
ing to about 4.5 percent in the 5 years thereafter.

By the end of 1965 there were 75  million passenger
cars on our streets, and the number is increasing by
close to 3 million vehicles each year. This means the
car population will total 84 million passenger cars by
the end of the 1960's.
   Replacement of cars already on the road is now
in excess of 6 million a year, and should amount to
about 6.9 million scrapped in  1969.
   By the end of the decade, nearly 7 million new
cars will be sold for replacement. New customers
entering the market and families  with one car add-
ing a second (annual sales of 9 million cars) becomes
a new  base for projection.
HENRY FORD, II
Chairman
Ford Motor Company
Press release (12-2-66)
ROY ABERNETHY
President
American Motors Corp.
Detroit News (11-27-66)
 There are 80 million cars and trucks on American
 roads today and 116 million expected within 10 years.
The market value for automotive replacements parts
for cars, trucks, buses, and trailers at retail in 1965
was $9 billion. Estimates place the value at $11.5 bil-
lion by 1970 and $14.7 billion by 1975.
  The U.S. Economics Corporation estimates that
85 percent of 1970 auto models will have automatic
transmissions, compared with 81 percent in 1965; 70
percent will have power steering, compared with 60
percent last year. For power brakes, the figures are
73 percent in 1965, compared with 83 percent in 1970.
Total cars will have risen from 61.3 million in 1965
to 74.2 million by 1970.
ARJAY MILLER
President
Ford Motor Company
Detroit News (11-27-66)

Printers' Ink (10-14-66)
                                        45

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               MOTOR VEHICLE  PRODUCTION
                       (in thousands)

Passenger cars 	
Trucks ..
Buses

Total 	

1970
	 9,400
	 1,510
35

	 10,945

1975
10,600
1,960
40

12,600

1980
12,200
2,340
45

14,485

  Source: Battelle Memorial Institute, "Michigan Manpower Study,
Phase I."
The expected deceleration in the 1967 auto market
fits into the long-term outlook. Reasonably optimistic
assumptions for 1970 indicate a market for about 10
million units, or only 7 percent above 9.3 million
units in 1965, including imports.
  Factors affecting the growth in car ownership and
the pattern of replacement are: A modest recession
in 1967, followed by a return to prosperity in 1968
to 1970. A rise in the percent of households owning
cars (from 80.6 percent at the beginning of 1966 to
almost 84 percent by the beginning of 1971). Rapid
growth in the number of upper-middle and upper
income families boosting multiple car ownership. A
slow scrappage rate over the next 5 years, however,
a marked gain should again occur in the early 1970's.
SOCIETY NATIONAL BANK OP
 CLEVELAND
Steel (8-15-66)
There is little prospect of any substantial rise above
a new car market of 9 or 9.5 million for the next few
years. Replacement demand required 6 million units,
rising toward 7. Over 1  million additional cars are
needed to provide transportation for the growing
number of households, an additional million will go
to satisfy the needs of increasingly richer house-
holds. This will provide a basic demand for new cars
of 9.5 million by 1970.
DANIEL B. SUITS
Professor of Economics
University of Michigan
Challenge, May-June 1966
 Averaging the up years with the down industry sales
 are projected to increase at a trend rate of 3.4 per-
 cent a year. This would mean normal levels of about
 10 million cars by 1970, and about 11.5 million
 by 1975.  Sales  (including imports)  in  1966 were
 projected  at  9 million cars, second highest in
 history. Unit growth outside the United States for
 the coming 5 years was projected at 6 percent a
HENRY FORD, II, Chairman
ARJAY MILLER, President
J. EDWARD LUNDY, Vice President,
  Finance
Ford Motor Company
Press release (5-25-66)
                                       46

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year, tapering to 4 percent in the 5 years thereafter.
By 1975, they projected that more than a third of
the families will have two or more cars, compared
to a quarter of all families today. Worldwide, about
170 million cars and trucks are now in use, and well
over 200 million will be in use by 1970.
                                             1965
       1975
Motor vehicle registrations (millions):
    Passenger cars	
    Trucks and buses	
 75
 15
         Total	
Ratio of persons per motor vehicle:
    All persons	
    Persons 15-74 years old	
Vehicle miles (billions)	
Motor fuel consumption (billions of gallons).
Motor vehicle demand 1966-1975 (millions):
    Passenger cars:
       For replacement	
       For increase in registrations	
 90

 2.2
 1.4
870
 70
 68
 22
            Total	
    Trucks and buses, total.
 90
 14
  97
  19
 116

  1.9
  1.3
1,165
  93
Source: A Look Through The Windshield, E. M. Cope, Chief, Highway
Statistics Division, Office of Planning, Bureau of Public Roads, Address
to the North American Gasoline Tax Conference, Denver,  Colorado,
August 30, 1965.
Well over 13 million vehicles will be sold in 1975 in
the United States. This would compare  with about
10.9 million sold in 1965. He said 1975 sales in Can-
ada are expected to top 1 million units compared
to 800,000 in 1965. Overseas sales are expected to
be upwards of 16 million units  in 1975, compared
to about 10.8 million units in 1965.
      FREDERIC G. DONNER
      Chairman
      General Motors Corp.
      Press release (5-20-66)
                                           By 1970   By 1975
U.S. population (million) 	
Number of families (million) 	
New drivers — age 16 (million) 	
Intercity freight-ton miles (trillion) 	
Cars in use (million) 	
Cars will travel (billion miles) 	
Trucks and buses in use (million) 	
Car production (million) 	
Car scrappage (million) 	
Non-U.S. car output (million) 	
U.S. truck output (million) 	
213.
54.
4.
2.1
86.
790.
19.4
10.5
8.4
14.5
1.9
230.
63.
4.3
2.4
99.
902.
23.6
12.5
10.0
19.0
2.3
Source: Wards Automotive Reports, July 25, 1966.
                                          47

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    Appendix   D.       Prices   Paid  by a
   Massachusetts   Shredder  Operator
Clean burned autobodies with frames, springs, rear ends, and front ends  $14.00/net ton.
attached.
   Motors, transmissions, and fuel tanks must be removed.

Clean unburned autobodies with frames, springs, rear ends, and front ends  $14.00/net ton.
attached.
   Motors transmissions, fuel tanks, seats, cushions and tires must be removed.
   (Glass, headliners, doorpanels, and floormats may remain in the body.)

Clean burned autobodies with or without frames	  $11.00/net ton.
   Motors, transmissions, and fuel tanks must be removed.

Cleaned unburned autobodies with or without frames	  $11.00/net ton.
   Motors, transmissions, fuel tanks, seats, cushions and tires must be removed.
   (Glass, headliners, doorpanels, and floormats may remain in the body.)

Porcelain:  washing machines.  Hot  water heaters with jackets, stoves, and  $13.00/net ton.
refrigerators.
   All sealed units must be removed.

Mixed sheet iron	  $13.00/net ton.
   Must be free of cable, BX cable, balls and rolls of wire and straps, terneplate,
   new galvanized, silicon and tin coated materials. Gas tanks, paint cans, and
   closed containers are not acceptable.

Prepared no. 2 steel	  $19.00/net ton.
   Truck undercarriages, shafting, bars, large pipe and gears, ordnance material,
   and all closed containers must be excluded.

Unprepared no. 2 steel—maximum length 12 ft	  $15.00/net ton.
   May include whole car frames, front and rear ends, and oversized no. 2 scrap.
                                     48

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         Appendix  E.   Excerpt  From:
    Plants  for  Screening  Junkyards,
              Gravelpits  and  Dumps
                 Arnoldra, Harvard University, November 1965
  "Make America Beautiful" is a phrase
which, fortunately, is being given much at-
tention now. Three million dollars have
just been appropriated by Congress for con-
trol of outdoor  advertising and a like
amount has been appropriated for "con-
trolling junkyards along the highways."
This is the very thing for which many a
civic-minded group has been fighting dur-
ing the past decade. It would not be amiss
to take  a hard  look at some  of our
town dumps, and state-owned gravel pits
also, with the idea of planting trees and
shrubs to screen them from public view.
  Public-spirited  groups could well be ac-
tive in planting, for it would add  materi-
ally to the appearance of the countryside,
especially as viewed by the passing motor-
ist. Along  the major highways  around
Boston's perimeter, several dumps, which
are conspicuously unshielded, come to
mind. This is a condition too often repeated
in many  communities  throughout the
country.
  The sites of these depositories have un-
doubtedly been selected because the land
is poor or unwanted. Also, it is impractical
to expect that, if a highly ornamental
planting were made  in such places, it
would be  maintained. The realistic ap-
proach is  to admit that these areas are
necessary, that they cannot be moved at
this point, and that no individual or group
will give the time or money to mow lawns,
or care for extensive flower beds and or-
nate plantings, year in and year out.
  However, there might be those inter-
ested enough  to make an initial planting
of rugged, fast-growing trees and shrubs;
that is, plants which, once established,
have a good  record for  taking care of
themselves without much additional at-
tention. True, such plants might not be
the best ornamentals available, but the
chances are that the soil would not be the
best either. This bulletin is being written
with the hope that some action, by some
group, somewhere, may be taken in hiding
these places from public view with plant-
ings of comparatively inexpensive screens
of "low maintenance" trees and shrubs.
  These plants should be given the  best
possible attention at planting time with
good soil, water, and mulching. It is  par-
ticularly necessary that the plants be
checked and watered carefully during the
first 2  years of the planting, even period-
ically, where  needed. Arrangements and
funds for doing this should be the respon-
sibility of the planning organization, and
funds should  be provided for this at the
start of the project. Many a good, well-
                                   49

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conceived planting has failed because this
was not done at the start.

  Of the plants suggested in the following
lists, the fastest growing trees are the pop-
lars, willows, elms, and the Douglas-fir, in
that order.  Of the  shrubs, the  fastest
growing are the Forsythia,  Japanese Tree
Lilac, Sweet Mock-orange and Japanese
Rose. In addition, and probably the fast-
est growing  of all the shrubs suggested
here for making a quick screen, is the new
Rhamnus frangula "Columnaris", the Tall-
hedge Buckthorn. Using plants 2-3 feet
          high, a 12-foot hedge can result in five
          years in good soil. Plants should be placed
          3-4  feet apart  to make  a  solid  screen.
          They bear  berries  (red,  turning black)
          throughout the summer and are most at-
          tractive to birds. The ability of this plant
          to grow well and fast, its freedom  from
          serious pests, its narrow and very dense
          habit (not  much over 4  feet  wide), its
          glossy foliage, and the ease with which it
          is transplanted, all combine to make  it an
          ideal, quick-growing screen, well suited to
          shield dumps and gravel pits from the
          public view.
                     SCREENING TREES FOR DRY, SANDY SOILS
  Acer negundo
  Ailanthus altissima
  Betula populifolia
  Fraxinus pennsylvanica lanceolata
  Madura pomifera
 *Pinus banksiana
  Populas alba
  Sassafras albidum
  Sophora japonica
  Ulmus pumila
   Box-elder
   Tree of Heaven
   Gray Birch
   Green Ash
   Osage-prange
   Jack Pine
   White Poplar
   Sassafras
   Japanese Pagoda Tree
   Siberian Elm
                                                                     Hardiness
Ht.
60'
60'
30'
60'
60'
75'
90'
60'
75'
75'
Zone
2
4
3-4
2
5
2
3
4
4
4
E
E
B
E

B
E
B

E
  > = Evergreen   E = Easy to move    B = Must be moved carefully with a ball of soil
                  SCREENING SHRUBS FOR DRY AND SANDY SOILS
                                                                     Hardiness
  Acer ginnala
  Berberis thunbergii
  Caragana arborescens
  Comptonia peregrina
  Elaeagnus angustifolia
  Hamamelis virginiana
 *Juniperus communis
 *Juniperus virginiana
  Kolkwitzia amabilis
  Ligustrum amurense
  Lvcium halimifolium
  Myrica pennsylvanica
  Physocarpus opulifolius
  Prunus maritima
  Rhamnus frangula
  Rhus aromatica
  Rhus copallina
  Rhus glabra
  Rhus typhina
  Rosa rugosa
  Viburnum lentago
 * = Evergreen    E = Easy to move
   Amur Maple
   Japanese Barberry
   Siberian Pea-tree
   Sweet Fern
   Russian Olive
   Common Witch-hazel
   Common Juniper
   Red-cedar
   Beauty-bush
   Amur Privet
   Common Matrimonyvine
   Bayberry
   Eastern Ninebark
   Beach Plum
   Alder Buckthorn
   Fragrant Sumac
   Shining Sumac
   Smooth Sumac
   Staghorn Sumac
   Rugosa Rose
   Nannyberry
Ht.
20'
7'
18'
4'
20'
15'
3-30'
10-90'
10'
15'
5'
9'
9'
6'
18'
3'
30'
9-15'
30'
6'
30'
Zone
2
4
2
2
2
4
2
2
4
3
4
2
2
3
2
3
4
2
3
2
2

E
E
B
B
E
B
B
E
E
E
B
E
B
E

B
B
B
E

B = Must be moved carefully with a ball of soil
                                         50

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                       SCREENING TREES FOR NORMAL SOILS
                                                                       Hardiness
 Acer plata7ioid.es
 Catalpa speciosa
 Cercidiphyllum japonicum
*Juniperus chinensis
 Morus alba
*Picea abies
*Picea pungens
*Pinus resinosa
*Pinus strobus
 Populus nigra 'Italica'
*Pseudotsuga menziesii
 Quercus borealis
 Quercus palustris
 Salix alba Tristis'
 Salix babylonica
 Salix X blanda

 Salix X elegantissima
*Thuja occidentalis
 Tilia cordata
*Thuja occidentalis
 Ulmus parvifolia
 Viburnum pr-unifolium
 Viburnum sieboldii
Norway Maple
Northern Catalpa
Katsura Tree
Chinese Juniper
White Mulberry
Norway Spruce
Colorado Spruce
Red Pine
Eastern White Pine
Lombardy Poplar
Douglas-fir
Red Oak
Pin Oak
Golden Weeping Willow
Babylon Weeping Willow
Wisconsin or Niobe Weeping
  Willow
Thurlow Weeping Willow
American Arbor-vitae
Little-leaf Linden
Canada Hemlock
Chinese Elm
Blackhaw
Siebold Viburnum
Ht,
90'
90'
60-100'
60'
45'
150'
100'
75'
100-150'
90'
100-300'
75'
75'
75'
30'
40'
40'
60'
90'
90'
50'
15'
30'
Zone
3
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
3
2
4-6
4
4
2
6
4
4
2
3
3
5
3
4
E
E

B

B
B
B
B
E
B


E
E
E
E
B

B

B
B
' = Evergreen    E = Easy to move    B = Must be moved carefully with a ball of soil
                       SCREENING SHRUBS FOR NORMAL  SOILS
                                                                        Hardiness
 Cornus mas
 Forsythia X intermedia
 Lonicera maackii podocarpa
 Philadelphus  coronarius
 Rhamnus frangula 'Columnaris'
 Rosa multiflora
 Rosa setigera
 Spiraea X vanhouttei
 Syringa amurensis japonica
 Syringa X chinensis
 Syringa josikaea
 Syringa X prestoniae
 Syringa vulgaris
 Taxus cuspidata
Cornelian Cherry
Border Forsythia
Amur Honeysuckle var.
Sweet Mock-orange
Tallhedge Buckthorn
Jananese Rose
Prairie Rose
Vanhoutte Spiraea
Japanese Tree Lilac
Chinese  Lilac
Hungarian Lilac
Preston  Lilac
Common Lilac
Japanese Yew
Ht.
24'
9'
15'
9'
12'
10'
15'
6'
30'
15'
12'
9'
20'
50'
Zone
4
5
4
4
2
5
4
4
4
5
2
2
3
4
E
E
E
E
E
B
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
B
* = Evergreen    E = Easy to move    B = Must be moved carefully with a ball of soil
                                           51

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                        Appendix   F.
       Technological  Developments
               in  the  Scrap   Industry
  The following is the text of a presenta-
tion by I. Proler, Proler Steel Corporation,
the  largest firm in the scrap shredding
business, delivered in October 1964 to the
ISIS-sponsored meetings of the National
Conference on Auto Salvage.
  I am here to discuss with you the bal-
ing, shearing, and shredding methods of
preparing the  scrapped automobile for
steel mill or foundry consumption, and the
ultimate rolling of it into finished steel
plates and shapes  for  fabrication into con-
sumer items.
  First, I will go back 25 to 30 years when
the only method of salvaging scrap from
an abandoned or a scrapped automobile
was to chop  up or torch the body into
pieces small enough to be baled in a small
hydraulic baler.
  This end product was known as a No. 2
bundle. The understructure of the auto-
mobile was cut by acetylene torch or small
alligator shear into 5- by IVz-ft. pieces or
smaller, known in the trade as No. 2 heavy
melting steel. Both of these items were
consumed in open hearth furnaces.
  The No. 2 bundles  were approximately
30 by 24 by 24 in. or smaller. However,
they contained the contaminants of paint,
wood, nonferrous metal attachments, and
so forth.  The  understructure contained
copper gasoline tubing as well as the cop-
per wiring attachments.
  While No. 2 bundles and No. 2 heavy
melting steel were consumed by the steel
mills when steel demand was high, in most
cases,  they  had to  be diluted  with hot
metal from the mill's blast furnace to keep
the residual copper  and other nonferrous
contaminants to a minimum, and to meet
the ultimate specifications of the finished
steel product.
  As the years progressed, the hydraulic
balers became larger, and  the alligator
shears, in some cases, were replaced by the
larger  hydraulic guillotine shears. Now the
the balers were able to consume an entire
automobile,  with or without the under-
structure. The hydraulic shears were able
to take  an  entire car, compress it and
shear it into a scrap item known in the
trade today as automobile slabs, or sheared
auto scrap.
  These methods, while they increased the
number of automobiles that could be proc-
essed, still did not eliminate the contam-
inants while the steelmakers were restricted
to higher and more rigid specifications for
their finished products. This scrap could
only find a home when it was attractively
priced and when steel production reached
a point when it  was practical to consume
the scrap in a bath with the necessary hot
metal, generated by the blast furnace, to
produce an  ingot which could then  be
rolled into a satisfactory steel product.
                                    52

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  During this  period, Proler Steel -Cor-
poration operated the largest baling press
in the world in Houston, Texas. This giant
could consume and hydraulically compress
two automobiles at one time, in 1V& to 2
minutes. By this method, I might add, a
tremendous number of automobiles went
into finished bales. Yet, there were many
times when these bales had to be accumu-
lated and held in inventory until steel mill
buyers found this item attractive for their
mill, or steel production was high enough
to absorb this  product, or perhaps until it
could  be exported  to  friendly  foreign
nations.
  (At this point, a film  was shown which
was narrated by Mr. Proler.)
  In this first scene, a  grapple picks up the
automobile from an accumulation of auto-
mobiles in the scrap processor's yard. The
entire auto minus the radiator, the motor,
and the tires  will  be  dropped into a hy-
draulic press and will be compressed into a
No. 2 bundle.
  This scene shows an automobile being
lifted by a  crane  into  a large hydraulic
guillotine shear. This auto, with the under-
structure, will be compressed and  then
sheared into a product known an automo-
bile slabs or sheared auto scrap, as I men-
tioned before. These shears can, I imagine,
shear perhaps 20 or 25  cars an hour. You
will note in the shearing device that the
contaminants are torn loose and fall to the
ground as the finished shear product is
moved down the conveyor and loaded into
cars.
  The  next scene shows the  Prolerizer
plant  in Kansas  City,  Missouri, where
whole  automobiles are moved in from the
rural and  surrounding areas by trailer
trucks, by wreckers'  trucks, and by indi-
vidual owners. The cars come in from an
area 250 to 300 miles from the plant. At
the  Proler  plant  in Houston,  cars are
shipped  in  by railroad from 500  to 600
miles away. Some cars are flattened and
stacked on  flat-bed trailers, 25 to  30 to a
load. Some autos are burned before they
come in, some are not.
  The auto is loaded onto the conveyor of
the Prolerizer to begin its preparation as
Prolerized steel. The scrap moves on a 200-
ft conveyor that is fed by two, sometimes
three, cranes. In this process, automobiles,
washing machines, refrigerators, and sim-
ilar articles are moved through a furnace
to eliminate lead, solder, and other con-
taminants.
  The  Prolerizer is a gigantic mill that
consumes and reduces  these items into
small bits. After the first step has been
completed, the refining process begins.
Some contaminants still remain.  In the
first magnetic separation,  some  are  re-
moved because the ferrous material ad-
heres  to the magnet. It is then carried
away for further processing.
   Rubber from the doors,  the porcelain,
the dirt, and the undercoating all are poi-
son to steel mills. We are eliminating these
materials in the Prolerizing process. This
unwanted material moves by conveyor into
a hopper for use as landfill. The nonferrous
scrap produced by this method is recovered.
   The  finished product is high-quality
scrap. The contaminants and the nonfer-
rous material has been eliminated, and the
end product  is a clean and  dense scrap
widely consumed by domestic and foreign
steel mills and foundries.
   In the latter part of 1956 and through-
out 1957, the research and development-
engineering department of the Proler Steel
Corporation worked  to devise a method
whereby contaminants could be eliminated
from wrecked or abandoned  automobiles
and converted into a product for steel mills
and foundries. It had to be a product of
high quality and low enough in residual
elements so that the consumers could  use
it steadily in their furnaces to make an
ingot or finished product within the speci-
fications  required by metallurgists and
their customers and which could be fab-
ricated  into automobiles, household appli-
                                        53

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ances, construction materials, and other
items.
  It was our feeling that if we could re-
turn the auto, the refrigerator, and the
stove back to the steel that it was before
it was made into those products, we could
have a good, clean, high-quality grade of
scrap. We  have done this at Proler. Al-
though we operated the  largest  baling
press in the world at the time, we made it
obsolete with  the development of our
Prolerizer plant.
  This new type scrap  has been copy-
righted under the name of Prolerized steel
scrap, and this method is covered by U.S.
Patent  No. 2,943,930 issued June 5, 1960.
On August 29,  1961, a reissue patent, No.
25,034, was issued that strengthens the ex-
istent patent  process and the product
made by the process.
  Prolerized scrap is a homogeneous type
heavy metal scrap, chemically pure and
physically dense. This material will weigh
approximately 80 to 90 Ibs. per cubic ft.,
and we have had some material that Pro-
lerized as high as 105 Ibs. per cubic ft.
  This material can and is being moved by
electromagnets, conveyors, and grapples.
It is small and dense enough to be stored
in a hopper. It can and is being consumed
in all types of cast iron and steelmaking
facilities.
  I would like to quote, if I may, from Mr.
R. L. Gray, past chairman of the board of
Armco Steel Corporation, who, after mak-
ing an inspection of our plant in Houston,
stated, "The Prolerized process to me rep-
resents the greatest contribution to the
steel industry ever made by the suppliers
of scrap metal."
  At the present time, there are four Prol-
erizer plants   operating  in  the United
States. Besides the plant in Houston, we
operate the Prolerized Steel Corporation
with our associates, I. J. Cohen and Com-
pany in Kansas City. A plant is  operated
in Los Angeles in association with Hugo
Neu  Company.  Our newest plant, the
Prolerized  Chicago  Corporation, began
operation in the latter part of 1963 in con-
junction and association with the M. S.
Kaplan Company.
   These plants can consume and process
two autos per minute, or 800 to 1,000 autos
a day. Two or  three additional plants of
this type are now in the planning stage,
and will be erected in the eastern part of
the country. One or two more will be put
up in the midwest and there will be a plant
in the San  Francisco Bay area in the near
future.
   Prolerized steel  has been tested and
melted by  most of the major steelmakers
in the country. Mills such as Armco, La-
Clede Steel, Northwestern Steel and Wire,
and numerous  other consumers through-
out the country, as well as steelmakers in
Europe and the Far East, commonly refer
to this item as a "steelmaker's dream" be-
cause it is so versatile in their steelmaking
procedures.
   All of the Prolerizer plants that have
been constructed have met with all of the
air pollution, smoke, and dust require-
ments of the metropolitan communities  in
which they operate. This has been accom-
plished by  the construction of special and
elaborate equipment to curb possible pol-
lution conditions.
   The Department of Air Pollution  of
Chicago stated, "Our observation leads us
to the conclusion that the Prolerizer has
provided a significant contribution to the
alleviation of a  major problem of air pollu-
tion which confronts Chicago and other
major cities. All potential sources of air
pollution in the Prolerizer organization are
controlled  by passing the exhaust gasses
through an elaborate type of control de-
vice. This insures to the greatest possible
extent that no gasses or other air pollu-
tion is projected into the  air during the
Prolerizer operation."
   Prolerized scrap is not made by a single
machine, but a series of machines and de-
vices including  air pollution control equip-
ment, constituting a fully integrated plant.
The cost of an  installation of this type is
                                       54

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upwards of $2 million, according to the
location. Prior to the development of this
process, auto wreckers and scrap operators
could only move scrap  automobiles when-
ever the market was economically sound.
With the advent of the Prolerizer, a con-
stant market is available for the end prod-
uct. Consequently, a fair price is paid to
the  auto  wreckers, or individuals who
scrap abandoned automobiles.
  While these plants are located in metro-
politan areas, the price paid for cars draws
them from a 250 to 300 mile radius of the
plant. Some rail shipments are  moved
within  a 500  to 600  mile radius of the
plant.
  I might add that seldom has a scrap op-
erator been acclaimed  by  the auto wreck-
ing industry for his part in auto salvaging.
The confirmed feeling  of the wreckers to-
ward the Prolerizer coming into their area
is one of gratitude, for  they benefit as well
as the community as a  whole.
   We have developed a way of continu-
ously disposing of the older vehicles that
have been a risk and a problem to the en-
tire community. By providing a steady
market for the cars and by disintegrating
the vehicle into choice scrap,  we have
greatly assisted the wrecker, as well as per-
formed a  community  service.  The  old
dumps are  being cleaned. Old automobiles
that usually provide rodent harborage as
well as constitute a fire hazard have been
eliminated.
  In closing, I would like to state that the
symptoms  of  the  problem that we face
have  been  diagnosed  by ourselves and
members of the Institute. We feel that we
have the necessary tools and knowhow to
cure this malady. Through the ingenuity
of this industry, and the construction of
future Prolerizer plants through the coun-
try, I firmly believe that this cancer that
has plagued the communities of this coun-
try will definitely be cured.
                                       55

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      Appendix   G.      Used-Tire  Reuse
   One of the most serious problems result-
 ing from the increasing number of vehicles
 traveling our roadways is the accumula-
" tion of used tires for which no satisfactory
 method of reuse or disposal has been im-
 plemented. The demand for used rubber is
 not sufficient to consume more than a frac-
 tion of the used tire inventory. Disposal of
 tires at sanitary land fill sites has not been
 successful since the tires rise to the surface
 due to air pockets. Because of the difficul-
 ties associated with disposal of tires, most
 dumps are charging very high prices per
 ton to accept them.
   Recent research conducted by the Coal
 Research Center of the  U.S. Bureau  of
 Mines in Pittsburgh, using an idea origin-
 ally conceived  by scientists of  the Fire-
 stone Tire & Rubber Company, has shown
 promising results as a potential solution to
 the problem of accumulating used tires.
   Large quantities of chemicals, oil liquids,
 gas, and tar have been obtained from dis-
carded tires by heating them in a closed
vessel. Tires are fed into the reactor and,
as they are heated, they break down. High
Btu gas for heat  and power is obtained
and the liquids are distilled into valuable
chemicals.
  A series of tests at 500 °C produced 140
gal of liquid oils and 1,500 cubic ft of gas
per ton of tires. The gas is comparable in
heating value to natural gas. The chem-
icals obtained from the tires are similar to
those produced from coal carbonization
(the heating of coal without air), includ-
ing benzene, toluene, xylene, and naphthas.
  These tests indicate that the solution to
the problem of discarded tires may  be
solved in the future. Firestone is currently
looking at the economic feasibility of proc-
essing tires in this  manner.
  Until this process is proven economically
feasible, continuing investigation is  re-
quired to determine the feasibility of other
methods for breaking tires.
                                      56

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         Appendix   H.   Bibliography
1. [Gilbertson, W. E., R. J. Black, L. E.
    Crane, and P. L. Davis.] Solid waste
    handling  in Metropolitan  areas.
    Public Health Service Publication
    No. 1554. Washington, U.S. Govern-
    ment Printing Office, 1966. 41 p.
2. Maryland   State  Department  of
    Health, Environmental Health Serv-
    ices, Division of Solid Wastes. Solid
    waste disposal in  Maryland: a five-
    year, ten-point program. Aug. 1966.
3. Baltimore  City Health Department.
    Air  Polution—open  burning  ordi-
    nance No. 1062. June 1967.
4. Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, Inc.
    1968 yearbook.  1968.
5. National Conference on Auto Salvage
    sponsored by Institute of Scrap Iron
    and Steel. Proceedings  of the Na-
    tional Conference on Auto Salvage.
    Oct. 1964.
6. Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, Inc.
    Green/screen.
7. U.S. Department  of Commerce, Busi-
    ness and Defense Services Adminis-
    tration.  Iron and steel  scrap con-
    sumption problems. Mar. 1966.
 8. U.S. Bureau of Mines. Automobile dis-
     posal,  a national problem;  case
     studies of factors that influence the
     accumulation of automobile scrap.
     1967.
 9. Hudson, L. D., and Crawford, Murphy
     and Tilly, Inc. Definition of major
     problems of waste pollution control
     in Illinois  auto salvage  industry.
     Mar. 1968.
10. State of California. Vehicle code. 1967.
11. Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus
     Laboratories.  The  removal  and
     utilization of junked automobiles in
     eastern Kentucky. Mar. 1967.
12. Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, Inc.
     Specifications  for Iron and  steel
     scrap. Jan. 1968.
13. Department of Motor Vehicles, State
     Maryland.  General motor  vehicle
     laws. 1967.
14. Storey, W. S. Natural resources . . .
     man-made. Institute of Scrap Iron
     and Steel. Jan.  1966.
15. Lownie, H. W., Jr. Two directions for
     scrap. Battelle Memorial Institute.
     Jan. 1965.
                                    57
                                                  U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1970 OF —37«-M4

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                                                                                     EXHIBIT V.   A 1-Vehicle Disposal Current Flow
                                                                                                                                                                             ACTIVITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                       PROBLEM
ON VEHICLE k^
OWNER'S   r^
PROPERTY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 SCRAP
                                                                                                                                                                                                              I   YARD
                                                                                                                                                                                                              *   INVENTORY


                                                                                                                                                                                                               K       X
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 61

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                      EXHIBIT VI.   A2—Vehicle Dismantling/Processing Current Flow
JUNK
VEHICLE
                              ABANDONED
                              VEHICLE
 , JUNK VEHICLE ,
J INVENTORY
                           AESTHETICALLY
                           UNACCEPTABLE
                                                                                                                       J.EGEND
                                                                                                           ACTIVITY
                                                                                                                                  PROBLEM
                                                                                                                                      ENTITY
                                                                                                                                               62

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                     EXHIBIT VII.   Bl-Vehicle Disposal (Projected Flow, Conclusons and
                          Incorporating Recommendations)
                                                                                                                                 /DEDUCED   V
                                                                                                                                / LEGAL AND   \
                                                                                                                                V  TITLING      /
                                                                                                                                YREQUIREMENT^
                                                                                                                 INTEGRATED
                                                                                                                 DMV RECORDS
                                                                                                                 UNDER HIGHWAY
                                                                                                                 SAFETY STANDARD
                                                                                                                 4.4.2.
                            MOTOR
                        I    VEHICLES
                                                                TO NEW OWNER
                                                                AS A MEANS OF
                                                                TRANSPORTATION
VEHICLE
TO BE
DISCARDED
                                                                                                   UUVERNMENT
                                                                                                  / OWNED
                                                                                                   COLLECTION
                                                                                                    POINT
                                                                 TO
                                                                 FREE
                                                                 DISPOSAL ARE A
                                                                                                                                    VEHICLE
                                                                                                                                    CLAIMED?
                            EVE LOP AMD
                           PUBLICIZE
                          PROPER DBPOSA
                           METHOD
                                                                                                      JUNK YARD
                                                                                                      INVENTORY
KNOW
PROPER
DISPOSAL
 ETHOD
                                                                  ro AUTO
                                                                  DISMANTLER
                                                                                                                                       HARGE
                                                                                                                                     OWNER COSTS
                                                                                                                                     PLUS FINE
                                                                                                  INCREASING
                                                                                                  DEMAND DUE TO
                                                                                                  INCREASING
                                                                                                  DEMAND FOR
                                                                                                  SCRAP
                            INE VEHICLE
                          ABANDONERS
                           UP TO
                            S200.00
 OST
OF
DISPOSAL
EXCESSIVE
                             ROVIDE FRE
                            VEHICLE
                            DUMPING
                            AREAS
                                                                                                   SCRAP YARD
                                                                                                   INVENTORY
                                                                               POLICE/
                                                                               INDUSTRY
                                                                              AGREEMENTS
        ABANDON
        VEHICLE?
                           IS
                           DISPOSAL
                           POSSIBLE?
                                                                                                                                               JUNK YARD
                                                                                                                                               INVENTORY
                                                                                               VEHICLE
                                                                                               RETRIEVAL
                                                                                               BY POLICE
                                                                                               OR AGENT
                 ABANDONED
                 VEHICLE A
                 PUBLIC NUISANCE
               MUST BE REPORTED
               AND/OR DISPOSED
               FINE UP TO S100.00
               ON VEHICLE
               OWNER'S
               PROPERTY
                                                                             FINE
                                                                             OWNERS OF
                                                                             ABANDONED
                                                                              VEHICLES
                                                                                                                            ON PUBLIC
                                                                                                                            PROPERTY
ON OTHER
PRIVATE
PROPERTY
                                                                                                                                                         FINE VEHICLE
                                                                                                                                                         ABANDONERS
                                                                                                                                                         UP TO
                                                                                                                                                         $200.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                /X
                                                                                                                                                                                                            / 01
                                                                                                                                                                                                            V
                                                                                                                                                                                                              V
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ONCLUSION '
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  OR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  RECOMMEND-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   .TION	/
                                                                                                          POLICE/    \
                                                                                                          INDUSTRY     ^o^Y
                                                                                                          AGREEMENTS J      I



                                                                                                                            I     0

                                                                                                                             I
                                                                                                          ^^^^^^  SELL VEHICLES
                                                                                                          """"~^^  TO     ;
                                                                                                                      COOPERATING
\

1 }

TO AUTO
DISMANTLER

i

r

TO
SCRAP
PROCESSOR
                                                                                                                                                                                             I
                                                                                                                                                                                          SCRAP YARD
                                                                                                                                                                                          INVENTORY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 63

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                                               EXHIBIT VIII.   B2— Vehicle Dismantling/Processing (Projected Flow,
                                                   Incorporating Conclusions and Recommendations)
                 JUNK
                 VEHICLE
                                                             GROWTH OF
                                                             CONTINUOUS CASTING
                                                             PROCESS CAUSES
                                                             INCREASING DEMAND
                                                             FOR SCRAf
                                            POLICE/
                                            INDUSTRY
                                           AGREEMENTS
                                            REQUIRE   \
                                            SCREENING \
                                                                       HREDDING
                                                                       PRODUCES
                                                                       BETTER QUA
                                                                       SCRAP
                                                                                                                                      SHREDDERS
                                                                                                                                      PRODUCE  '
                                                                                                                                      BETTER
                                                                                                                                      QUALITY SCRAP
                                                                                                                               SHREDDERS
                                                                                                                               REQUIRE
                                                                                                                               NO
                                                                                                                               R1IRN NG
                                                                                 EXPANDING USE
                                                                                 OF ELECTRIC
                                                                                 FTJRNACES INCREASES
                                                                                 DEMAND FOR i
                                                                                 SCRAP
                                                                                                                                                                                                             ACTIVITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PROBLEM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CONCLUSION

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    RECOMMENDATION
                                                                                                                                              ENTITY
INCREASING
DEMAND CAUSED
BY EXPANSION OF
CONTINUOUS
CASTING AND
ELECTRIC FURNACES
Q.

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