GWMI 87-08
ig/wc
international ground water modeling center
          Quality Assurance in Computer Simulations
               of Groundwater Contamination


                  Paul K.M. van der Heijde
       Holcomb Research Institute
         Butler University
        Indianapolis. Indiana 46200
           USA
                  TNO-DGV Institute
                 of Applied Geoscience
                 PO Bo< 285, 26OU *G D«lrt
                  Th« Nethoilands
TK*

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        IGUHC   GROUNDWATER   MODELING   REPRINT
                    Quality Assurance  In Computer  Simulations of
                             Groundwater Contamination
                              Paul  K.M.  van  der  Heijde
                     International  Ground  Water  Modeling  Center
                                      reprint
                    Environmental  Software,  1987,  Vol  2,  No.  1
                                     GWMI  87-08
INTERNATIONAL   GROUND   WATER   MODELING   CENTER
                             Holcomb  Research  Institute
                                 Butler University
                            Indianapolis,  Indiana   46208

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                                                                  Groundwater Contamination: P.K.M. van der Heijde
Quality  Assurance in Computer  Simulations  of
Groundwater Contamination

Paul K.M. van der Heijde
International Ground Water Modelling Center, Holcomb Research Institute, Butler University,
Indianapolis, IN 46208, USA
                                                      ABSTRACT

     In the development of policies  and, regulations for groundwater protection,  In  permitting, and 1n planning monitoring
and remedial actions,  the role of mathematical  models  1s  growing  rapidly.   Because water-resource  management decisions
should be based on technically  and scientifically  sound methods,  quality assurance (QA)  needs to be applied  to groundwater
modeling,  both 1n model  development and  field studies, and should  also play an Important part 1n model  selection.

     Important aspects  of  QA  1n groundwater model  development are peer review, and verification and validation  of  the
computer code and Us underlying theoretical  principles.  This  paper discusses  the role of  review and testing  as part of an
overall QA approach,  and addresses  QA 1n model selection and field application.
Key Words:  groundwater, mathematical models, quality  assurance,

                      INTRODUCTION

     The   science  of  groundwater  flow  and  contaminant
transport   1s   not   yet  an  exact  field   of  knowledge.
Although   the   physical  processes  Involved  obey  known
mathematical  and physical  principles,  exact  aquifer  and
contaminant  characteristics are hard  to obtain  and often
make even  plume  definition  a  difficult  task.   However,
where these characteristics  have been reasonably estab-
lished,  groundwater  models may  provide a  viable,  1f  not
the  only,  method to  predict  contaminant  transport,  to
locate  areas  of  potential  environmental  risk,  and  to
assess possible remediation/corrective actions  |lj.
     Mathematical models  are  used to  help  organize  the
essential   details   of  complex   groundwater  management
problems   so  that   reliable  solutions  are  obtained.
Applications  Include a wide range of  technical, economic,
and  sociopolitical   aspects  of  groundwater   supply  and
protection  |2. 3. 4,  5).
     A groundwater  protection policy based on monitoring
1s by  Us  very nature always reactive,  not preventive;
however,  model-based policies and  regulations can be both
preventive  and  reactive.   Because  adequate on-s1te moni-
toring 1s  not  always  feasible due  to  costs,  available
manpower,  or  site  accessibility,  models  can provide  a
viable and  effective alternative.   An optimal approach to
the  management  of  groundwater  resources   Includes  the
Integrated use of modeling and monitoring strategies.
     The  role of  groundwater-flow  and  contaminant-trans-
port models  1n  the  development  of  policies  and regula-
tions,  1n permitting,  and 1n planning  of monitoring  and
remedial  action, 1s continuing to grow.   Some  of  the prin-
cipal areas where  mathematical models  can now be used  to
assist  In  the  management  of  groundwater protection  pro-
grams are |6):

     •  development of  regulations and policies

     •  planning and design of  corrective actions  and waste
       storage facilities

     •  problem conceptualization and analysis

     •  development of  guidance documents

0266-9838/87/010019-07 $2.00
• 1987 Computational Mechanics Publications
Paper received  on December 8, 1986 Referee: Dr. Paolo Zannetti
model  validation, pollution, model selection

    • design  and  evaluation   of   monitoring  and  data
      collection strategies

    • enforcement

Specifically,  groundwater  modeling  plays  or  can  play  a
role 1n:

    • determining or evaluating the need for  regulation
      of   specific  waste  disposal,   agricultural,   and
      Industrial practices

    • analyzing  policy  Impacts such  as  evaluating  the
      consequences of  setting  regulatory standards  and
      banning rules,  and of dellsting actions

    • assessing  exposure,  hazard,  damage,   and  health
      risks

    • evaluating reliability,   technical  feasibility  and
      effectiveness,  cost, operation and  maintenance,  and
      other  aspects  of waste-disposal  facility designs
      and of alternative remedial actions

    • providing guidance  1n  siting  of  new facilities  and
      1n permit issuance and petitioning

    • detecting pollutant sources

    • developing aquifer or well-head protection zones

    • assessing   liabilities    such   as   post-closure
      liability for disposal sites

    These  activities  can  be broadly categorized  as either
site-specific or generic modeling efforts,  and these cate-
gories can  be further  subdivided into point-source or non-
point-source  problems.    The  success  of  these modeling
efforts  depends  on the  accuracy and efficiency  with which
the natural  processes controlling the behavior  of ground-
water,  and the chemical and biological species  it trans-
ports,  are  simulated.    The accuracy and efficiency of the
simulations,  1n  turn, depend heavily on the  applicability
of  the  assumptions  and  simplifications   adopted  1n  the
model(s),  on the  availability  of  reliable  data,  and  on
subjective  judgments made by the modeler and management.
     If litigation  1s  Involved, the model  code  Itself and
Its theoretical  foundation  may  become  contested.   There-
                                                             ENVIRONMENTAL SOFTWARE, 1987, Vol 2, No.  1   19

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Groundwater Contamination: P.K.M. van der Heijde
 fore,  adequate guidelines  should  be developed  for  selec-
 tion of  simulation codes  to be  used  under such  circum-
 stances.   Such guidelines  should  cover  code  review,  vali-
 dation,  and  documentation and  should be widely accepted.
      It 1s of  the highest  Importance that  water  resource
 management  decisions  be  based on  the use  of  technically
 and  scientifically  sound  data  collection,  Information
 processing,  and Interpretation methods.   Quality Assurance
 (QA)  provides the  mechanisms  to  ensure  that decisions  are
 based on the best available data and analyses.   This paper
 discusses  QA guidelines applicable  to groundwater  modeling
 and the role  of  QA 1n  the  model selection process.
          QUALITY  ASSURANCE  IN GROUNOWATER MODELING

      Quality   assurance   in groundwater  modeling  is  the
 procedural  and operational  framework  put In place  by  the
 organization  managing the  modeling  study, to assure tech-
 nically  and scientifically  adequate execution  of  all  pro-
 ject tasks Included  in  the study, and to assure  that  all
 modeling-based analysis  is  verifiable  and defensible  [7|.
 QA in groundwater modeling should be applied to both model
 development and  model application and should  be  an Inte-
 gral part  of  all  projects.   The  two major  elements  of
 quality   assurance  are  quality  control  (QC)  and  quality
 assessment.  Quality control refers to the procedures  that
 ensure  the quality of the final  product.   These procedures
 include  the use of appropriate methodology,  adequate vali-
 dation,  and proper usage.
      To  monitor   the  quality  control   procedures  and  to
 evaluate  the  quality of  the  products  of  field  studies,
 quality assessment  1s  applied.   It  consists of  two  ele-
 ments:   auditing  and technical  review.    Audits are  pro-
 cedures designed  to assess  the degree  of  compliance  with
 QA requirements,  commensurate  with the  level  of QA  pre-
 scribed for the project.  Compliance 1s measured  in terms
 of traceability of records,  accountability (approvals  from
 responsible staff),  and fulfillment of  commitments  1n the
 QA plan.  Technical  review consists of  independent evalua-
 tion  of  the  technical  and  scientific  basis of a  project
 and the usefulness of Us  results.
      QA is  the  responsibility  of both  the project  team
 (quality  control  and  Internal  evaluation)  and  the  con-
 tracting  or supervising organization (quality assessment).
 QA should not  drive  or manage the direction of  a  project
 nor  Is  QA  intended  to  be  an  after-the-fact  filing  of
 technical  data.
 tives.   Major elements  of  such a QA plan  are:  (1)  formu-
 lation  of  QA  objectives  and  required  quality  level  1n
 terras  of  validity,  uncertainty,  accuracy,  completeness,
 and  comparability;  (2)  development  of  operational  proce-^
 dures   and  standards  for  performing  adequate  model1r
 studies;  (3)  establishing  a paper trail  for QA activities'
 in  order to  document that standards of  quality  have been
 maintained;  and  (4)  Internal  and  external  auditing  and
 review   procedures.    The  QA  plan  should  also  specify
 Individual responsibilities for achieving these goals.
 Model  Development
      Ideally,  QA should  be  applied  to all codes currently
 1n use and yet-to-be-developed  codes.   Relevant QA proce-
 dures  include  such  aspects  as the  verification  of  the
 mathematical   framework,   field   validation,  benchmarking,
 and  code   comparison.    A  detailed  discussion  of model
 testing and review 1s described  in the second part  of this
 paper.
      QA  for  code   development   and  maintenance  should
 Include complete record-keeping  of  the model development,
 of modifications made In the code, and of  the code-valida-
 tion process.  The paper trail for QA  in model development
 consists of  reports  and files  on the  development  of the
 model.   The reports should  Include a  description  of:

        assumptions
        parameter values and sources
        boundary  and initial conditions
        nature of grid and grid design justification
        changes and  verification of changes  made in code
        actual  input used
        output of model  runs and  Interpretation
        validation (or at  least calibration) of model

      In addition,  depending  on  the  level  of QA  required
 the following files may  be retained  (in hard-copy and, '
 higher  levels, 1n digital form):

      •  version of source  code used
      •  verification Input and output
      •  validation input and output
      •  application Input  and output

      If any modifications are made to  the  model  coding for
 a  specific  problem,  the  code should be tested   again; all
 QA  procedures  for  model   development  should  again  be
 applied. Including accurate  record  keeping  and  reporting.
 All new Input and output files should  be saved for  Inspec-
 tion and possible reuse.
      Various  phases of  quality assessment exist  for both
 model  development  and  application.    First,  review  and
 testing 1s performed  by the author, and sometimes by other
 employees   not   Involved  In  the  project, or  by  Invited
 experts from outside  the organization.   Also to  be con-
 sidered 1s the  quality  assessment  by  the organization for
 which  the  project has  been  carried  out.   Again,  three
 levels can be distinguished:  project  or product  review or
 testing by the  project officer  or  project monitor,  by
 technical   experts  within  the   funding   or  controlling
 organization, and by an  external peer  review group.
      Decisions  by  natural  resources  and  environmental
 managers  rest  on  the  quality  of  environmental data  and
 data analysis;  therefore,  program managers  In regulatory
 agencies  should  be  responsible for:  (1) specifying  the
 quality of the  data  required from environmentally related
 measurements   and  for  the  level  of  problem-solving  data
 analysis;  and (2) providing sufficient resources to assure
 an adequate level  of  QA.
      QA procedures should be contained  1n  a  QA plan to be
 developed for  each modeling  study.    The  plan  lists  the
 measures  required to  achieve  prescribed  quality  objec-
Model Application
     QA  in  model  application should address all  facets  of
the model application process:

     • correct  and  clear  formulation  of  problems  to  be
       solved -
     • project description and objectives
     • modeling approach to the project
     • 1s modeling  the best available approach and  if  so,
       is   the   selected1   model   appropriate  and   cost-
       effective?
     • conceptualization    of   system    and    processes,
       Including     hydrogeologic    framework,    boundary
       conditions, stresses, and controls
     • explicit    description     of     assumptions     and
       simplifications
     • data acquisition and Interpretation
     • model  selection,  or  justification for choosing  to
       develop a new model                                ~
     • model  preparation  (parameter selection, data ent
       or reformatting, grldding)
     • the  validity  of  the parameter  values  used  In  the
       model application
     • protocols  for parameter estimation  and model call-
20  ENVIRONMENTAL SOFTWARE, 1987, Vol 2, No. 1

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                                                                      Groundwater Contamination: P.K.M. van der Heijde
        bratlon to provide  guidance,  especially  for sensi-
        tive parameters
      • level of  Information  1n  computer  output  (variables
        and parameters displayed;  formats;  layout)
      • Identification of calibration  goals  and  evaluation
        of how well  they  have  been met
      • sensitivity  analysis
      • postslmulatlon analysis  (Including  verification  of
        reasonablHty   of   results,   interpretation   of
        results,  uncertainty   analysis,  and  the   use  of
        manual or automatic data  processing  techniques,  as
        for contouring)
      • establishment of appropriate   performance  targets
        (e.g., 6-foot head  error  should be  compared with a
        20-foot head  gradient or drawdown,  not with  the
        250-foot aquifer  thickness!);  these  targets should
        recognize  the Units of the data
      • presentation and  documentation  of results
      • evaluation  of how  closely  the  modeling  results
        answer the questions raised by  management

      A major  problem in model  use 1s model  credibility.
 In the selection process special  attention should  be given
 to ensure the  use of qualified models that have undergone
 adequate  review and  testing.

     As 1s  the case  with model   development  QA,  all data
files,  source codes, and executable  versions  of computer
software used  1n the modeling study should be  retained for
auditing or postproject  re-use.
                 MODEL REVIEW AND TESTING

     Before a  groundwater  model  1s  used as a planning and
decision-making tool, its  credentials must be established.
Independently   of   its   developers,   through   systematic
testing  and  evaluation  of  the  model's  characteristics.
Code testing  is generally considered to encompass verifi-
cation  and  validation  of  the  model   |8|.   To evaluate
groundwater models  in a  systematic and  consistent manner,
the  International Ground Water Modeling  Center  (IGWMC) has
developed  a  model  review,  verification,   and   validation
procedure   (5).     Generally,   the   review   process   is
qualitative  in nature,  while code  testing results  can  be
evaluated by quantitative performance standards.
Model Review
model.   Such  a  procedure determines whether the  concepts
of  a model adequately  represent  the nature of the  system
under  study,  and  identifies  the   processes  and   actions
pertinent  to  the  model's Intended  use.    The  examination
also  determines  whether  the  equations  representing  the
various  processes  are   valid  within  the  range   of  the
model's  applicability,   whether  these  equations   conform
mathematically to the  intended range of the model's  use,
and  whether  the  selected  solution approach  is  the  most
appropriate.    Finally,  model  examination determines  the
appropriateness   of   the  selected   Initial  and   boundary
conditions  and establishes the applicability range  of  the
model.
      For   complex   models,   detailed  examination   of   the
 implemented  algorithms  is  required  to determine  whether
appropriate numerical  schemes,  1n  the  form of a computer
code, have been adopted to represent  the model  I10|.  This
step  should disclose  any inherent  numerical problems such
as  non-uniqueness   of  the numerical  solution,  Inadequate
definition of  numerical  parameters. Incorrect or nonopti-
mal  values used  for  these  parameters,  numerical   disper-
sion, numerical Instability such as  oscillations or diver-
gent  solution,  and  problems  regarding  conservation  of
mass.
     In  addition,   the  specific  rules  for  proper  appli-
cation of  the model  should  be analyzed from the  perspec-
tive  of  Us  Intended   use.    These  rules  include  data
assignment  according to  node-centered  or  block-centered
grid  structure  for  finite-difference  methods;  size  and
shape  of  elements   1n  integrated  finite-difference  and
finite-element methods;  grid  size  variations; treatment of
singularities  such  as  wells; approach  to vertical  aver-
aging  in  two-dimensional  horizontal  models  or ' layered
three-dimensional  models;   inclusion  of partial  solutions
1n  analytical element; methods;  and treatment of  boundary
conditions.   Consideration is also given to the  ease  with
which  the  mathematical  equations,  the solution  procedures,
and the  final results can  be physically interpreted.
Evaluation of Model Documentation
     Model   documentation  is   evaluated   through   visual
 inspection,    comparison   with   existing   documentation
 standards  and guidelines,  and  through*its use as  a  guide
 in   preparing   for   and  performing   verification   and
 validation runs.
     A complete  review procedure comprises examination of
model   concepts,  governing   equations,   and   algorithms
chosen, as well  as evaluation  of  documentation  and general
ease-of-use,  and examination  of the  computer  coding  (5,
9|.   If the  model  has been  verified  or  validated by  the
author, the  review  procedure  should Include evaluation of
this process.
     To  facilitate  thorough review of the model,  detailed
documentation  of  the model  and its developmental  history
1s  required.    In  addition, to ensure Independent  evalua-
tion  of  the   performed  verification and  validation,  the
computer  code  should be  available or at least  accessible
for  Implementation  on the  reviewer's computer  facilities,
together  with   a  file containing  the original  test  data
used in the code's verification and validation.
     Review  should  be  performed  by  experienced  modelers
knowledgeable   in   theoretical   aspects  of   groundwater
modeling.   Because review 1s rather subjective  1n nature,
selection  of the  reviewers  1s  a  sensitive  and  critical
process.
      Good  documentation  includes  a complete  treatment  of
 the  equations on which  the  model   is  based,  of the under-
 lying assumptions,  of the boundary conditions  that can  be
 Incorporated  1n the model,  of the method used to solve the
 equations,  and of  the limiting conditions  resulting  from
 the  chosen method.   The  documentation  must  also Include a
 user's  manual  containing instructions  for  operating  the
 code and preparing  data files, example  problems complete
 with input and output, programmer's Instructions, computer
 operator's  instructions, and a  report  of the initial  code
 verification.
 Evaluating Ease of  Use
      The data  files provided  by  the  model  developer are
 used to evaluate the operation of  the code and the user's
 guide through  a  test-run process.    In this stage special
 attention   is   given   to   the  rules  and  restrictions
 ("tricks,"   e.g.,   to  overcome  restrictions  in  applic-
 ability) necessary  to operate  the  code,  and to the code's
 ease-of-use aspects (111.
Model Examination
Computer Code Inspection
     Model  examination determines whether anything  funda-
mental was  omitted  1n  the Initial  conceptualization  of  the
     Part of the model review  process  is  the  inspection  of
the computer code.   In this Inspection attention  is  given
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Groundwater Contamination: P.K.M. van der Heijde
 to  the  manner in which modern programming principles have
 been  applied  with respect  to  code structure, optimal use
 of  the  programming  language,  and internal documentation.
 This  step  helps  reveal  undetected  programming  or  logic
 errors, hard to detect 1n verification  runs.
                     MODEL  VERIFICATION

     The  objective  of  the the  verification  process   1s
 twofold:  (1)  to  check the  accuracy  of the  computational
 algorithms  used  to solve the governing equations, and  (2)
 to assure that the computer code 1s fully operational.
     To  check  the code  for correct coding of  theoretical
principles  and  for major programming errors  ("bugs"),  the
code  is  run using problems  for  which an analytical  solu-
tion  exists.   This  stage  is also used  to  evaluate  the
sensitivity  of  the code to  grid design,  to various  domi-
nant  processes,  and  to  a wide   selection  of  parameter
values 19,  12, 13. 14|.
     Although  testing  numerical  computer  codes  by com-
paring  results  for simplified  situations  with  those  of
analytical  models  does  not  guarantee  a  fully  debugged
code,  a  we 11-selected  set  of problems ensures  that the
code's main program and  most of  Its  subroutines.  Including
all  of  the frequently called  ones,  are being used  in the
testing.   In  the  three-level  test procedure developed by
the  International   Ground Water  Modeling  Center  (IGWMC),
this type of testing Is referred to as level I 115).
     Hypothetical   problems   are ^used  to  test   special
 features   that  cannot  be  handled  by  simple  close-form
 solutions,  as  in  testing  irregular  boundary  conditions  and
 certain  heterogeneous  and anisotropfc  aquifer  properties;
 this is  the  IGWMC  level II testing.
      For  both  level  I  and  level  II  testing,  sensitivity
 analysis  is  applied to further  evaluate  code  characteris-
 tics.
                      MODEL VALIDATION

     Model  validation or  field validation  is  defined as
the  comparison  of model  results with numerical data  Inde-
pendently  derived  from  laboratory  experiments  or obser-
vations  of  the environment  |10|.   Complete model  valida-
tion  requires testing over  the full  range of conditions
for  which  the model is designed.  Model development  Is an
evolutionary  process  responding to  new research  results,
developments  in  technology,  and changes  1n user  require-
ments.   Model review and  validation needs to follow  this
dynamic  process  and should  be applied each time  the  model
Is modified.
     The objective of model  validation  is  to determine  how
well   the  model's  theoretical  foundation  describes   the
actual  system behavior  in  terms of  the  "degree  of  correla-
tion"  between  model  calculations  and actual measured data
for   the   cause-and-effect   responses  of   the   system.
Obviously, a comparison with  field  data  is  required.  Such
a  comparison may  take either  of  two  forms.    One form,
calibration,  is sometimes  considered the  weaker  form of
validation  insofar as  it tests  the ability of  the code
(and the model)  to fit  the field  data,  with adjustments of
the  physical  parameters |13|.  Some  researchers prefer to
classify calibration as a  form of verification  rather than
a form  of validation.
     The  other  form of  validation  1s that of  prediction.
This  is a  test of  the  model's ability  to  fit the  field
 data  with no  adjustments  of the physical  parameters.   In
 principle,  this  is  the  correct  approach  to  validation.
 However,  unavailability and inaccuracy of field data often
 prevent  such a rigid  approach-.   Typically, a  part of the
 field  data 1s designated as calibration  data,  and a cali-
 brated site-model  1s  obtained  through  reasonable adjust-
 ment  of  parameter values.   Another  part  of the field data
 is  designated  as  validation  data;  the  calibrated  site
 model  is  used in  a  predictive  mode to  simulate similar
 data  for  comparison.   The quality of such  a test  Is there-
 fore  determined by the  extent to which  the  site model is
 "stressed beyond"  the  calibration  data on  which  It  1s
 based  |13|.   In the IGWMC testing procedure, this  approach
 is  referred  to  as level  III  testing.
      For many types  of  groundwater  models,  a complete set
 of test problems and  adequate  data  sets for the described
 testing  procedure  1s  not  yet  available.    Therefore,
 testing of  such models  is generally  limited  to extended
 verification,  using existing analytical  solutions,  and to
 code 1ntercompar1son.
      Whether a model Is valid for a particular application
 can be assessed  by performance criteria, sometimes called
 validation  or  acceptance  criteria.    If various  uses  1n
 planning   and  decision  making  are   foreseen,  different
 performance criteria  might be  defined.    The  user should
 then  carefully  check  the  validity of the model  for the
 Intended  use.
      Three levels of validity can be distinguished  |10|:

      (1)  Statistical   Validity:      using    statistical
           measures to  check  agreement  between  two differ-
           ent  distributions,  the  calculated  one  and the
           measured one;  validity  is  established by  using
           an    appropriate    performance   or     validity
           criterion.

      (2)  Deviative  Validity:     if  not  enough data are
           available    for    statistical    validation,   a
           deviation  coefficient  D  can  be  established,
           e.g.,

                0 = l(x-y)/x|100X

           where  x  =  predicted   value  and y  =  measured
           value.     The  deviation   coefficient  might   be
           expressed  as  a  summation  of  relative devla-'
           tions.   If ED  is a deviattve validity criterion
           supplied  by subjective  judgment,  a   model can
           considered to be valid 1f  D  < ED.

      (3)  Qualitative Validity:  using a qualitative  scale
           for   validity   levels  representing   subjective
           judgment:  e.g.,  excellent,   good,  fair,   poor,
           unacceptable.    Qualitative   validity is   often
           established through visual inspection  of graphic
           representations of  calculated  and measured  data
           116).

      The  aforementioned  tests  apply to  single variables
 and  determine  Iocal-or-s1ngle variable validity;  if  more
 than  one  variable  is  present  in  the  model,   the   model
 should  also  be  checked  for   global  validity   and  for
 validity  consistency  [10|.     For   a  model  with  several
 variables to be globally valid,  all  the calculated outputs
 should  pass  validity tests.   Validity  consistency refers
 to  the  variation  of  validity  among  calculations having
 different Input or comparison data sets.  A model  might.be
 judged  valid under  one  data  set but not  under  another,
 even  within  the range of conditions for which the  model
 has been  designed  or  is  supposedly  applicable.   Validity
 consistency can be evaluated periodically  when models have
 seen repeated use.
     Often,  the  data  used  for  field validation  are  not
collected directly from  the  field but are processed  In  an
earlier  study.   Therefore,  they are  subject to  inaccur-
acies,  loss  of  information,  Interpretive  bias,  loss  of
22  ENVIRONMENTAL SOFTWARE, 1987, Vol 2, No. 1

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                                                                      Groundwater Contamination: P.K.M. van der Heijde
precision,   and   transmission   and   processing   errors,
resulting  In a general degradation of the data.
     As  noted  earlier,  for  many  types  of  groundwater
models  no  field  data  sets  are  available  to  execute  a
complete validation.   One  approach  sometimes  taken  Is  that
of  code  Intercomparlson, where a newly developed model  1s
compared with existing  models  designed  to solve the  same
type  of problems  as  the  new  model.    If the  simulation
results  from  the  new  code  do  not deviate  significantly
from  those  obtained with the existing code,  a  relative  or
comparative  validity 1s established.   It  1s obvious  that
as  soon as  adequate data sets  become available,  all  the
Involved models should  be validated with those data.
      Further  development  of databases for field validation
 of  solute  transport  models  1s necessary.   This 1s also the
 case  for  many  other types  of  groundwater'models.   These
 research   databases  should  represent  a  wide  variety  of
 hydrogeologlcal  situations  and should  reflect  the  various
 types  of   flow,  transport,  and  deformation  mechanisms
 present 1n the  field.   The databases  should  also  contain
 extensive  Information on hydrogeological, soil,  geochemi-
 cal,  and  cl1matolog1cal characteristics.   WHh the  devel-
 opment  of such  databases   and  the  adoption  of  standard
 model-testing and  validation procedures, the  reliability
 of  models used  1n  field  applications  can  be  Improved
 considerably.
 Validation Scenarios
      Often,  various  approaches to  field  validation of  a
 model  are  viable.     Therefore,  the  validation  process
 should start with defining validation scenarios.   Planning
 and  conducting   field  validation  should   include   the
 following steps |17|:

      (1)   Define  data  needs  for validation and  select  an
           available  data  set  or  arrange  for  a site  to
           study.

      (2)   Assess  the  data  quality  in  terms   of accuracy
           (measurement      errors),      precision,     and
           completeness.

      (3)   Define  model  performance or acceptance  criteria.

      (4)   Develop strategy for  sensitivity analysis.

      (5)   Perform  validation   runs  and   compare   model
           performance     with    established    acceptance
           criteria.
Sensitivity Analysis
     An   Important   characteristic   of  a  model   is   Its
sensitivity  to variations  or uncertainty  in  input para-
meters.    Sensitivity  analysis  defines  quantitatively or
sem1quant1tatively the dependence of a selected model  per-
formance  assessment  measure (or an  Intermediate  variable)
on a specific  parameter  or  set of parameters 118].  Model
sensitivity  can  be  expressed  as  the  relative  rate of
change of  selected output caused by a  unit change in  the
Input.    If the change in the input  causes a large change
1n  the  output,   the  model   is  sensitive  to  that Input.
Sensitivity analysis is  used to identify  those parameters
most Influential  in determining  the  accuracy and  precision
of model  predictions.    This Information is of  Importance
to  the user,  as  he  must establish  required accuracy  and
precision  1n  the  model  application  as  a function of  data
quantity  and  quality 117).    In  this context the use of a
sensitivity Index as described by Hoffman  and Gardner  [19)
1s  of  Interest.   It  should be noted that  1f  models  are
coupled,  as  in multimedia  transport of  contaminants,  the
propagation  of  errors  and  the Increase  in  uncertainty
through  the  subsequent   simulations must  be  analyzed as
part of the sensitivity  analysis.
                       MODEL SELECTION

      Using  models  to  analyze  alternative  solutions   to
 groundwater  problems  requires a  number  of  steps, each  of
 which  should be  taken  conscientiously  and  reviewed  care-
 fully.   After the  decision to use  an  existing model  has
 been  made,  the selection process  is Initiated.   As  model
 credibility  is  a  major  problem in  model  use,  special
 attention  should  be  given  in  the  selection  process   to
 ensure  the  use  of qualified  models that  have  undergone
 adequate  review  and  testing.    Selecting  an  appropriate
 model 1s crucial to the success of a modeling project.
      Model selection  1s  the  process  of  matching  a  detailed
 description  of   the   modeling   needs   with   well-defined,
 quality-assured  characteristics  of existing  models,  while
 taking  into  account  the objectives of  the  study and  the
 limitations  1n the personnel  and material  resources  of  the
 modeling  team.    In  selecting an  appropriate model, both
 the model  requirements  and  the characteristics of  existing
 models  must  be   carefully  analyzed.    Major elements   in
 evaluating  modeling   needs  are:    (1)   formulation  of  the
 management problems to  be solved and the level of  analysis
 sought;  (2)  description  of  the system under  study; and  (3)
 analysis   of  the  constraints   in   human   and   material
 resources  available   for the study.    Model  selection   is
 partly  quantitative  and partly qualitative.  Many subjec-
 tive  decisions  must  be made,  often  because  there  are
 Insufficient data in  the selection stage  of  the  project to
 establish  the  Importance of  certain  characteristics  of  the
 system to  be modeled.
      Definition of  modeling  needs is based on  the  manage-
 ment  problem  at  hand,  questions  asked by  planners  and
 decision makers,  and on the understanding of the  physical
 system, including the  pertinent  processes, boundary condi-
 tions, and  system  stresses.   The major  criteria in selec-
 ting  a model  are:   (1)  that  the model  Is  suited   for  the
 Intended use;  (2)  that the model is thoroughly tested  and
 validated  for the  Intended use;  and  (3) that the  model
 code and documentation are complete and user-friendly.
      Regardless  of  whether   problem-solving   performance
 standards are  set, management-oriented  criteria  need  to  be
 developed for  evaluating and  accepting  models.   Such  a  set
 of scientific  criteria should  include:

      • trade-offs  between   costs  of  running  a  model  and
        accuracy
      • profile  of  model  user and  definition  of  required
        user-friendliness
      • accessibility   1n   terms   of   effort,   cost,   and
        restrictions
      • acceptable temporal   and spatial  scale  and level of
        aggregation

      If different  problems must  be  solved, more than one
 model might  be  needed  or   a  model  might be used  1n more
 than one capacity.   In such cases,  the model requirements
 for each of  the  problems  posed have to be clearly defined
 at  the  outset  of  the  selection process.   To  a certain
 extent this  is also true  for  modeling  the  same system  in
 different stages of the project.   Growing understanding of
 the system and  data  availability might lead to  a need for
 a succession of  models of  increasing complexity.  In such
 cases, flexibility  of  the model or model  package  might
 become an important selection criterion.
     It  should be  realized that  a  perfect  match  rarely
exists   between   desired  characteristics  and  those   of
available  models.   Many  of  the   selection  criteria  are
subjective  or weakly  justified.    If a  match  is  hard  to
obtain,  reassessment  of  these criteria and their  relative
weight  1n  the selection  process  is necessary.    Hence,
model selection 1s very much an iterative process.
     In   standardizing   model   selection,   three   major
approaches  are  employed  in  characterizing the  validation
of  numerical  models.     In  one,   the   model   is   tested
                                                                 ENVIRONMENTAL SOFTWARE,  1987, Vol 2, No. 1   23

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Groundwater Contamination: P.K.M. van der Heijde
 according  to  established procedures;  when  accepted,  the
 model  Is  prescribed  In  federal  or state regulations  for
 use 1n cases covered by  those  regulations.   This  approach
 does   not   leave  much  flexibility  for  Incorporating  the
 advances  of recent research and technological  development.
 The second  approach  Includes  the establishment of a  list
 of  groundwater  simulation codes as  "standard" codes  for
 various  generic and site-specific management  purposes.   To
 be  listed,  a code should pass a widely accepted review and
 test  procedure such  as  that  described in a previous  part
 of  this paper.    This  approach  Is  suggested  1n  a  recent
 evaluation  of  the  role of modeling  in the U.S.  Environ-
 mental  Protection  Agency |6|.   It  should  be noted  that
 establishing "standard"  models will not prevent discussion
 of  the appropriateness  of a selected  model  for analysis of
 a specific  problem nor  of its proper use 1n  a particular
 decision-making   process.     In  considering  these   two
 approaches,  questions have been raised such as [6]:

  •  Are  there   legal  liabilities for  setting  up  certain
    models  as acceptable?  (For Instance,  if  an enforcement
    agency  certifies  a  model  for use,  can that agency  no
    longer criticize an  Industry's use of that model?)

  •  Does  certification   squelch   the  development  of   new,
    better models?

  •  What  balance  should  there  be between using the  newer,
    faster  models and  using mature models already  subjected
    to  peer  review?

     A third  approach   is  to prescribe  a  review-and-test
 methodology  in  regulations of  enforcement  agencies,  and
 require  the model development team to  show  that  the  model
 code   satisfies  the  requirements.    This approach  leaves
 room  to update  the codes as  long  as  each version is  ade-
 quately  reviewed  and tested.   An  example 1s  the quality
 assurance  program  for  models  and  computer  codes of  the
 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory  Commission  [20).
extensive  need for  these  models in assessing current  and
potential  water  quality  problems  has  resulted  in  two
groups of  modelers:  (1)  model  developers  who are research-
oriented and who  generally apply models only for*verifica-
tion  and  validation  purposes,  and  (2)  model  users  who
apply models  routinely to  actual  generic or site-specific
groundwater problems.   The  economic consequences  of  model
predictions  and  the  potential   liabilities  incurred  by
their  use  have  brought   quality  .guarantees   and   code
credibility  to the  forefront  as  major   issues  1n ground-
water modeling.   Hence,  quality  assurance (QA)  needs  to be
defined  for  both model  development  and model application.
There  is  a significant  difference between  these  two:  the
first  1s  designed  to  result  1n  a reliable  code,  and  the
second   to interpret  correctly   the  simulation  results.
Both require  stringent QA  procedures to  be  established and
enforced.   As  model credibility  has  become a  major con-
cern,  model   selection should  focus on  those   codes  that
have  undergone adequate  review and  testing.   To further
Increase  the  applicability  of the models,  good  documenta-
tion and user-friendliness of  the computer  coding Involved
should receive proper  attention.
                      ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The  research  described  in this publication has been funded
in   part  by   the  U.S.  Environmental  Protection  Agency
through  Cooperative Agreement 0CR-812603  with  the Holcomb
Research  Institute.    It has  not been  subjected  to  the
Agency   peer  and  policy  review  and  therefore   does  not
necessarily   reflect  the views   of   the  Agency,  and  no
official endorsement should  be Inferred.
      In any case, a general framework of nondlscrlmlnatory
 criteria should be established [6].   These criteria should
 include:

 • publication  and  peer  review  of  the  conceptual  and
   mathematical frame-work

 • full  documentation and visibility  of the assumptions

 • testing  of  the  code according to prescribed methods;
   this  should  Include  verification  (checking the accuracy
   of  the  computational  algorithms  used  to   solve  the
   governing  equations),   and   validation   (checking  the
   ability  of the  theoretical  foundation of the  code to
   describe the actual system behavior)

 • trade   secrets   (unique   algorithms   that    are  not
   described) should not be permitted  if  they might  affect
   the  outcome  of the  simulations;  proprietary codes are
   already protected by the copyright law

     Finally,  as  model  selection  is very closely  related
to system  concep-tualizatlon  and problem solving,  "expert
systems"  integrating  system   conceptualization  and model
selection   on  a   problem-oriented   basis   promise   to  be
valuable tools.
     Further  Information on  groundwater model  selection  Is
presented  1n  [21, 22, 23, 24|.
                          SUMMARY

     During  the  1970s  a  rapidly  Increasing  awareness  of
the threat posed to groundwater resources by human-induced
chemical  and  biological   pollution   has  accelerated  the
development  of  sophisticated  simulation models.    These
models  are  based  on  mathematical   descriptions  of  the
physical,  chemical,   and  biological   processes   that  take
place  in  a  complex  hydrogeologlcal   environment.    The
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