United States       Off ice of        May 1984
           Environmental Protection    Radiation Programs     EPA 520/1-84-015
           Agency         Washington, D.C. 20460



           Radiation
vxEPA     An Estimation of the
           Daily Food Intake Based on
           Data from the 1977-1978
           USDA Nationwid  :
           Consumption Survey



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   AN ESTIMATION OF TEE DAILY FOOD INTAKE BASED ON DATA
FROM THE 1977-1978 USDA NATIONWIDE FOOD CONSUMPTION SURVEY
                   Christopher B.  Nelson
                       You-yen Yang
                         May 1984
               Office of Radiation Programs
           U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                  Washington, D.C. 20460

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                               FOREWORD
     The Office of Radiation Programs carries out a national program to
evaluate the exposure of man to ionizing and nonionizing radiation and
to develop guidance, standards, and criteria for the protection of
public health and the quality of the environment.

     This report describes a more refined methodology than heretofore
used for estimating the daily food intake as food utilization factors
in the assessment of environmental radionuclide intake by individuals
through food consumption.

     Readers are encouraged to bring to our attention any questions
encountered in this report.  Any comments and suggestions are also
welcome.  These comments should be directed to Christopher B. Nelson,
Bioeffects Analysis Branch, Analysis and Support Division,  Office of
Radiation Programs (ANR-461C), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Washington, D.C. 20460.
                                    Len L.  Sjoblom, UJirector
                                   Office of Radiation Programs

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                          ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
     Numerous people helped in the preparation of this report,
but particular acknowledgement is  due  to  Drs.  Eleanor  M.  Pao and
Kathryn H. Fleming of USDA for their assistance and support  relative
to the USDA study and to Mary  Anne Culliton  of EPA for her editorial
contributions.

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                                Contents




Foreword	iii




Summary	......«••••   1




I.  Introduction 	   2




II.  Survey Design 	   2




III.  Food Classifications	   3




IV. Data Analyses	   5




V.  Analytical Results 	   5




VI.  Conclusions	10




References	15
                              APPENDICES




Appendix A—The USDA 1977-78 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey




Appendix B—Statistical Analysis

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         An Estimation of the Daily Food Intake Based on Data
      from the 1977-1978 USDA Nationwide Food Consumption Survey
                         Christopher B.  Nelson
                             You-yen Yang

                 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                     Office of Radiation Programs
Summary
     A Nationwide Food Consumption Survey was conducted by the
U.S. Department of Agriculture in 1977-78 to investigate the food
intake of various selected segments of the U.S. population and to
identify changes in U.S. food intake patterns.  EPA has used data from
this survey to determine the average daily total intake of different
food items.  This daily average can be used to assess radionuclide
intake by persons in various geographic categories within the United
States.

     Through analytical processes, we were able to estimate the daily
intake of each food subclass, not only for the U.S. population as a
whole, but also for subpopulations classified according to their
geographical (census) characteristics.  We also computed the standard
error of each estimate for statistical inference.  These estimates are
weighted mean values of the daily intake and are adjusted for the age
and sex distribution of the 1969-71 U.S. stationary population, region,
division, primary sampling unit (PSU), and season.

     All food items in the survey were grouped into 8 main classes
which were further divided into 22 subclasses.  We analyzed the data
for these classes and subclasses to determine which factors in the
statistical model (Appendix B) had significant effects on food intake.

     Region was the most important factor.  It significantly affected
intake of practically all food subclasses.  Liquid food, as opposed to
solid food, accounted for most of the differences among regions.
Urbanization (and the interaction of urbanization and geographic
division) played a trivial role in food intake.  While season had
practically no significant effects on solid food intake, it affected
beverage, tap water, and soup intake significantly.

     Different studies on caloric intake for the U.S. population were
compared and shown to be consistent with each other.  The estimated
mean caloric intake in this study is 1863 kcal, which is about 84% of
the Recommended Dietary Allowances (RDA).  This does not necessarily
indicate either low bias in either the USDA survey or the EPA analysis.

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I.  Introduction

     To assess the radionuclide intake by humans through food intake,
we need estimates of the daily food intake of different food items.
Historically, a series of ad hoc values for average and maximum food
intakes has been used.  These values are generally the result of a
subjective interpretation of data reported in nutrition or marketing
studies; Rupp's reports (Rupp, 1980A-B) are good examples.   None of
these reports, however, include significance tests for reported class
effects or confidence intervals for estimated parameters.

     EPA's study has used the data from the U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA) 1977-78 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey (NFCS)
(see Appendix A for more information about the Survey) to  estimate the
daily intake of different food classes which will be used  for the
assessment of environmental radionuclide intake through food consump-
tion.  We have also performed statistical analyses and computed the
standard error of each estimate for statistical inference.

     The USDA survey objectives included investigating the  dietary
intake of various segments of the U.S. population, determining the
adequacy of diets as compared to the Recommended Dietary Allowances,
and determining any changes in food intake patterns.  Because EPA s
objective was different, we had difficulties with the survey design,
food classifications, and in applying the data to our statistical
analysis.  To overcome these problems, we reorganized the  original data
files so that we could classify food items according to the
characteristics of radionuclide transport and thus be able  to analyze
the data for our purposes.

     In this report, we use the term "daily intake" to mean "average
daily total intake."  We will present statistical findings,  interpret
their significance, and give the estimated mean daily intake of food
classes per caput.  This is the first of a series of reports concerning
statistical analyses of the NFCS data.  We discuss some geographical
effects on food intake in this report.
II.  Survey Design

     In the Nationwide Food Consumption Survey (see Appendix A),  the
sampling unit was a household.   For each household  there  were two parts
to the survey:  the household part investigated the quantities and
sources of foodstuffs  used  in the  preparation  of meals  served in  the
household, while the individual part surveyed  the intakes of individual
household members at each eating occasion over a three-day period.  The
data for the individual part of the survey were analyzed  for this
report.  Since members of the same household would  usually be eating
substantially from the same food supply and would often have similar
eating patterns, we could not expect data for  members  of  the same
household to be independent.  Furthermore, the households in each
segment of at least 100 households within a primary sampling unit (PSU)

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were allocated to four different quarterly samples—no samplings were
performed for each season, and the households selected for the study
were not statistically independent.  For these reasons,  we did not  use
the mean squares of "individual" or "household" as an estimate of
variance of sampling error for hypothesis testing in the analysis of
variance.  We used, instead, the mean square of the PSU, or precisely,
PSU nested in region, division, and urbanization, as an estimate of the
variance of sampling error for the analysis.  Thus, the analytical
results we obtained are somewhat conservative.

     Because of our different objectives, we encountered the following
problems:

     1)  The protocol (USDA, 1981) for the spring quarter was
     different from that for the remaining quarters.  In the
     spring quarter, every member in a sampled household was
     interviewed, but in the remaining quarters, all persons
     younger than 19 and one-half of all persons 19 and older
     were interviewed, i.e., a part of the household was
     sub sampled.  If there was only one person in the
     household, he or she was interviewed with certainty.

     2)  The protocol reads: "In order to provide seasonal
     information, the sample design called for identification
     of  four independent interpenetrating samples to be
     implemented in consecutive quarters of data collection, "
     i.e., households in each area segment were allocated to
     four quarterly samples.  While this sampling procedure
     would be more economical than a random sample, it is very
     doubtful that these four quarterly samples would indeed be
     independent as stated in the protocol, because the samples
     were drawn systematically from the same area segment.

     3)  Because part of the data was collected through
     recollection, the data could be low-biased.
 III.  Food Classifications

     Because concentrations of radionuclides in foods can vary widely,
we classified foods by categories for which we can measure or calculate
concentrations of radioactivity and which we know comprise significant
dietary intake.  We divided foods into eight classes; in turn, each
class was divided into subclasses as shown in Table 1 below.

     For example, we classified produce into three subclasses:  leafy
vegetables, produce exposed to the atmosphere, and protected produce.
Leafy vegetables, such as lettuce, have a broad flat leaf surface for
direct interception of atmospherically deposited material.  The edible
portion of the plants primarily consists of leaves and stems.  Exposed
produce, tomatoes for example, also intercepts atmospherically
deposited material, but surface areas (for exposure) are typically

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smaller than those of leafy vegetables.   Edible  parts  are  usually
reproductive organs which accumulate additional  radionuclides  through
soil uptake to a smaller extent  than vegetative  parts.   Protected
produce, such as potatoes, are not directly, exposed to atmospherically
deposited material.  Edible portions are  principally reproductive  or
storage organs which either grow underground or  are protected  by pods,
shells or nonedible peels.  The  accumulation of  radionuclides  takes
place through uptake of radionuclides from soil  or transfer from
nonedible portions.

     Similar considerations were extended to other classifications of
foods so that each classification is pertinent to  specific radionuclide
pathways.

     Every food item in the NFCS was assigned a  7-digit code (USDA,
1979A).  The first three digits  represent food groups;  the last  four
are associated with ingredients  added to, or the preparation of, the
food items.  The following illustrates this coding system  for  the  first
two digits.

     First digit = major food groups.
       1 = milk and milk products,
       2 = meat, poultry, fish,  and mixtures,
       3 = eggs, mixtures, substitutes,
       etc.

     First and second digits = major food subgroups.
       11 = milk and milk drinks,
       12 = cream and cream substitutes,
       13 = milk desserts,
       14 = cheeses,
       21 = beef,
       22 = pork,
       23 = lamb,  veal, game, other carcass meat,
       24 = poultry;
       etc.

     We classified all 3,735 food items in the survey  into our eight
major classes; each class again was divided into two to four
subclasses.  There were many occasions where the appropriate
classification was not clear.  To classify them, we made a judgment
based on the objectives of the study and  the characteristics of the
food items under consideration.   Reconstituted milk, for example,  could
be classified as other dairy products or  as water-based drinks.  We
considered the item from a radiological assessment perspective:  what
were the ingredients of the food items and what  was the most important
ingredient; had it been processed or stored for  some time  before it was
served?  After making those considerations, we classified  reconstituted
milk into the other dairy products subclass.

     Stew, for another example,  consists  of meat,  vegetables,  starch,
water, and unspecified items.  We considered the meat  to be the most

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 significant  ingredient  and  identified  the meat in the stew by using the
 USDA coding  system.  We separated bread and filling  for sandwiches,
 including hamburgers, hot dogs,  submarines, and tortillas.  All 3,735
 food items in  the  survey data  file were classified as shown in Table 1.

     Because there are  so many varieties of vegetables and fruits, the
 following indicate important produce belonging to each subclass.

     Leafy vegetables:    cabbage, cauliflower, broccoli,
                          celery, lettuce, spinach.

     Exposed produce:     apples, pears, berries, cucumber,
                          squash, grapes, peaches, apricots,
                          plums, prunes, string beans, pea
                          pods,  tomatoes.

     Protected produce:   carrots, beets, turnips, parsnips,
                          citrus fruits, sweet corn, legumes
                          (peas, beans, etc.), melons,
                          onions, potatoes.

     Other produce:       Unspecified  vegetables or  fruits
                          and  mixtures of vegetables or
                          fruits.
 IV-   Data Analyses

      USDA recorded  the  information on food intake for every eating
 occasion during  the  three-day survey period.  Since the objective of
 the EPA study was to estimate the daily intake of food classes and
 subclasses  for each  sampled  individual, we added the quantities of a
 food  subclass or class  consumed on each occasion throughout the day,
 then  took an average over the number of days the individual had
 participated in  the  survey.

      If an  individual had participated two days, for example, the
 average daily total  would be obtained by dividing the total quantity by
 two for that food subclass or class.  Most of the survey data had a
 complete three-day set  of observations (93%), very few had a one-day
 (5%)  or a two-day (2%)  set.  A total of 30,770 persons participated in
 the survey.  Given the  high  proportion of individuals with three-day
 sets  of observations, we chose not to weight the observations on the
 basis of the numbers of days of data (see Appendix B for more
 information).
V.  Analytical Results

     The general linear models procedure, GLM, in the Statistical
Analysis System (1979), commonly known as SAS, was used to analyze the
data.  The results of analysis of variance are given in Table 2.

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Table 1.   Classification of the  Food Items  in the  NFCS
              into Major Classes and Subclasses
 Major Class
                                    Subclass
  Dairy products
  Eggs
  Meats
  Fish
  Produce
  Grains
  Beverages
  Miscellaneous
Fresh cow's milk,
Other dairy products (dry milk,
 butter, cheese, etc.).

Fresh eggs,
Other egg products (powdered
 eggs and other prepared
 egg products).

Beef, veal,
Pork,
Poultry (chicken, duck,
 other birds),
Other meats (game, organ
 meats, meat mixtures,
 etc.).

Fin fish,
Shellfish,
Other seafood (mixtures and
 unspecified fish products).

Leafy vegetables,
Exposed produce,
Protected produce,
Other produce (unspecified
 vegetables or fruits; mix-
 tures of vegetables or fruits).

Breads, pasta,  cakes, etc.,
Cereals,
Other grains (wheat, rice,
 raw millet, raw rye, etc.).

Tap water,
Water-based drinks
 (coffee, tea, etc.),
Soups,
Other drinks (soft drinks,
 fruitades, alcoholic drinks).

No subclasses  (chocolate,
 sugar,  salad  dressings, etc.).

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     The F statistics given in Table 2 can be expressed by:

                           F = MS(A)/MS(PSU),

where MS(A) and MS(PSU) are the mean squares of A and PSU,  respectively.
 A" represents any factor under hypothesis testing, such as  region,
division nested in region, or urbanization nested in region.   The test
statistic, under the null hypothesis, has an F-distribution  with
degrees of freedom f^ and fpsu>  i«e.« F(f^, fpsiP'   ^or a §iven
level of significance, say a,  when

                    MS (A)/MS ( PSU) ^ Fln]i(fA, fpSu>>

we reject the null hypothesis and declare that the test result is
(statistically) significant at the a level.

     For simplicity, when we mention division, urbanization,  or season,
we will mean division nested in region, urbanization nested  in region,
and so on.  Note that  since the quantities of other egg products and
other fish products consumed were negligibly small, less than one
gram/day, we have excluded them from the statistical analysis.

     Census region and geographical division (see Appendix A)
significantly affected food intake.  Urbanization,  interaction of
division and urbanization are relatively unimportant on food  intake.
Season had practically no effect on solid food intake, but  it
significantly affected beverages, tap water, and soup intake.

     The intake of two major food classes, dairy products and
beverages, varied significantly by both region and  geographical
division (Table 2); for other food subclasses, it varied significantly
only by region or division.  Table 2 also shows that food intake
patterns of food subclasses were overwhelmingly regional.  In all but
three subclasses, leafy vegetables, other grain products and  other
beverages, significant regional effects were detected.  When hypothesis
tests were performed for the major classes, significant effects could
appear or disappear compared with the results obtained for  subclasses.
For example, all four subclasses of meats showed significant  effects
for region yet the class meats did not show a significant effect for
region.  Conversely, only one of the four subclasses of beverages
showed a significant effect for geographical division yet beverages  as
a whole showed a significant effect for geographical division.  This is
because the aggregation can cause effects to be magnified or
diminished.  A few significant results were detected for season,
urbanization, and the  interaction of urbanization and geographical
division.

     The estimated mean daily intake, weighted by age, sex,  region,
division, PSU, and season, are given in Table 3.  The values  given in

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          Table 2.  Analysis of Variance by Food Class and Subclasses
                      (F values for sources of variation)
Source of variation
Food class or
Subclass
Degrees of Freedom
DAIRY PRODUCTS
Fresh cow1 s milk
Other
EGGS
MEATS
Beef & veal
Pork
Poultry
Other
FISH
Fin fish
Shellfish
PRODUCE
Leafy
Exposed
Protected
Other
GRAIN
Breads
Cereals
Other
BEVERAGES
Tap water
Water based
Soups
Other
MISCELLANEOUS

Region
(3)
1 7 . 40**
11.54**
22.68**
17.97**
1.59
7.12**
8.75**
8.57**
14.63**
6.23**
4.12**
3.65*
1.19
1.03
7.32**
5.10**
8.63**
0.43
7.90**
2.86*
2.57
17.21**
30.91**
3.32*
9.80**
1.26
9.14**
Division
(5)
3.91**
4.38**
1.00
1.79
2.42*
5.17**
1.61
.97
1.42
2.14
2.03
1.32
3.99**
3.07*
4.22**
3.28**
1.69
2.47*
2.27
1.14
3.51**
3.85**
7.93**
.61
.94
1.89
2.31
Urbani-
zation
(8)
1.94
1.76
1.69
2.07*
1.15
1.18
.71
1.87
2.86**
.78
.65
.87
.47
2.64*
1.00
.96
1.12
.67
1.17
.38
1.67
.30
1.57
2.27*
1.07
3.34**
3.89**
Division
Urbani-
zation
(10)
.82
.83
.90
1.34
1.07
.76
1.21
1.40
1.86
1.06
1.00
1.08
.25
.86
.87
.42
2.08*
.67
1.86
.57
1.44
.81
2.55**
1.66
.98
.51
1.51
Season
(12)
1.29
1.67
.42
.45
.42
.66
.56
.53
.71
.57
.61
.93
1.35
1.08
7 . 09**
.42
1.33
1.20
1.84
.81
.12
2.33*
2.04*
.63
4.51**
1.18
.54
Sampli-
ing
Error
(gram)
(84)
807.3
753.7
179.4
75.7
252.3
176.0
85.7
115.9
66.1
81.5
67.5
35.3
538.0
116.8
232.4
348.6
43.2
451.5
218.9
194.3
259.0
2098.5
1513.0
1034.0
186.0
724.6
107.7
Notes:   *:   .01 <  P <  .05
P < .01.

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Table 3.  Mean and Standard Error for the Daily Intake of
        Food  Class  and  Subclass  Region  (in grams)
Food class/
Subclass
DAIRY PRODUCTS
Fresh cow's milk
Other
EGGS
MEATS
Beef & veal
Pork
Poultry
Other
FISH
Fin fish
Shellfish
PRODUCE
Leafy
Exposed
Protected
Other
GRAIN
Breads
Cereals
Other
BEVERAGES
Tap water
Water based
Soups
Other
MISCELLANEOUS
U.S.
Population
308.6+5.3
253.5+4.9
55.1+1.2
26.9+ .5
172.2+1.6
87.6+1.1
28.2+ .6
31.3+ .8
25.1+ .4
17.5+ .5
14.7+ .4
2.6_+ .2
282.6+3.5
39.2+ .8
86.0+1.5
150.4+2.3
7.0+ .3
200.0+3.0
147.3+1.4
29.9+1.3
22.9+1.7
1434. +13. 7
662.5+9.9
457.1+6.7
45.9+1.2
269.9+4.7
34.6+ .7
Region
Northeast
318.6+10.4
256.1+9.7
62.5+2.3
23.8+1.0
169.9+3.3
82.3+2.3
28.8+1.1
31.7+1.5
27.1+_ .9
20.5+ 1.1
16.7+ .9
3.6+ .5
270.6+6.9
38.1+1.5
88.5+3.0
137.2+4.5
6.9+ .6
203.5+5.8
153.1+2.8
24.6+2.5
25.9+_3.3
1288. +27.0
520.9+19.5
418.5+13.3
52.2+ 2.4
297.2+ 9.4
31.4+ 1.4
North
Central
336.1_+10.0
279.7+9.4
56.5+2.2
23.5+ .9
176.9+3.1
92.9+2.2
29.6+1.1
26.6+1.4
27.8+, .8
14.7+1.0
13.1+ .8
1.5+ .4
282.4+6.7
37.1+1.5
87.8+2.9
150.1+4.3
7.3+ .5
192.8+5.6
150.9+2.7
28.7+2.4
13.3+3.2
1448. +26.0
659.8+18.8
476.0+12.8
48.9+ 2.3
264.5+ 9.0
37.0+ 1.3
South
253.6+8.4
211.0+7.8
42.6+1.9
31.0+ .8
171.9+2.6
84.0+1.8
30.1+ .9
36.5+1.2
21.3+ .7
17.0+ .8
14.2+ .7
2.6+ .4
280.7+5.6
38.4+1.2
76.9+2.4
160.1+3.6
5.4+ .4
202.2+4.7
143.9+2.3
34.6+2.0
23.7+2.7
1513. +21. 8
748.5+15.7
470.5+10.7
36.8+ 1.9
258. 1+ 7.5
32.3+ 1.1
West
348.1+12.3
283.5+11.5
64.6+2.7
29.1+1.2
168.6+3.9
92.9+2.7
22.1+1.3
28.9+1.8
24.7+1.0
18.5+1.2
15.2+1.0
2.8+ .5
303.1+8.2
45.3+1.8
95.5+3.6
152.5+5.3
9.8+ .7
202.6+6.9
139.5+3.3
30.9+3.0
32.1+4.0
1480. +32.1
714.4+23.1
458.2+15.8
48.1+ 2.9
260.6+11.1
39.2+ 1.6

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the second column,  U.S.  Population,  of Table 3,  are the expectation  of
the 1969-71 U.S. stationary population.   It is interesting to note that
the estimated standard error is  small  compared to the correspond-
ing mean, although we have used  a conservative sampling error in the
statistical analyses.  The age and sex distribution assumed is that  of
the 1969-71 U.S. stationary population (see Appendix B).


VI.  Conclusions

     Of the effects tested by analysis of variance, the regional factor
is by far the most important. Except  for leafy  vegetables,  other grain
products, and other beverages,  it significantly affects the intake of
all food items under consideration.  Food intake patterns  are diverse
as one can see in Table 3.  The  division factor is the second most
important.  It directly affects  the  intake of fresh cow's  milk,  beef
and veal, leafy vegetables, exposed produce, protected produce,  other
grain products, and tap water.   Urbanization and the interaction
between division and urbanization do not significantly affect food
intake.  Almost no significant  seasonal  changes  in solid food intake
were detected.

     All food subclasses can be  classified as liquid or solid foods
(Table 4).  Of the total daily  intake  per caput  (2478 grams),  68% (1689
grams) is liquid and 32% (789 grams) is  solid, or the ratio of liquid
foods consumed to solid foods is approximately 2 to 1.   The total solid
food intake is fairly constant  across  the regions whereas  the liquid
food intake has a wider range of variation.   Overall intake is greatest
in the West and least in the Northeast region.

     When the regional intake is normalized by the national population
intake for each major class and  subclass, most regions are within ±  10%
of the national levels.   (Table  5 indicates the  exceptions.)

     The intake of shellfish in  the Northeast region is 38% above the
national average, while in North Central it is 42% below.   The intake
of other grains in the West is  40% above the national average; in North
Central it was 42% below the national  average.  One may notice that  the
quantities of these two subclasses are small (see Table 3).   It  is
interesting to note that only one subclass (pork) is more  than 10%
below the national average in the West,  while there were five such
subclasses in the South.

     We have attempted to compare our  findings to those of USDA (Pao,
et al., 1982) and those of Rupp  (Rupp, 1980).   It is very  difficult  to
make direct comparisons among these three sets of results.  The USDA
report presents average intakes  per  day  and per  eating occasion by sex
and age.  These averages are for individuals actually consuming the
given food items; therefore, the values  in the report are  often  quite
different from the customary averages  for the entire U.S.  population.
                                  10

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              Table 4.  Average Total Daily Food Intake
                         by Region (in grams)
Region
Food type
Solid food
Liquid food*
TOTAL
Northeast
782
1545
2327
North
Central
784
1729
2513
South
111
1725
2502
West
825
1765
2590
U.S.
Population
789
1689
2478
     *Including fresh cow's milk.
          Table  5.  Exceptions to National Average Levels of
                         Food Intake by Region
Northeast
Other dairy
products
Fish*
Fin fish
North Central
More Than 110% of
Fresh cow's milk
Other meats
South
National Average
Eggs*
Poultry
Cereals
Tap Water
West
Dairy
products*
Fresh cow's
milk
Other dairy
products
Shellfish

Other grains

Soups
Other beverages
Leafy
 vegetables
Exposed
 produce
Other produce
Other grains
Miscellaneous
                   Less Than 90% of National Average
Eggs*
Cereals
Beverages*
Tap water




Eggs*
Poultry
Fish*
Fin fish
Shellfish
Other grains


Dairy products*
Fresh cow's
milk
Other dairy
products
Exposed produce
Other produce
Soups
Pork







    *Major class.
                                   11

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           Table 6.   A Comparison of Studies  by  Rupp  and  EPA
                (Mean daily intake per caput, in grams)
                                Rupp
     Food class              (Over 18 yrs)                (All ages)


Dairy products                   306                         309
Meats                            258                         172
Produce                          438                         283
Grains                            97                         200
Fluid                           1351*                      1388**
*0ther than soups and fresh cow's milk.
**0ther than fresh cow's milk,  but including  soups
     Rupp's results, which are averages over a population,  were
obtained through a review of the literature  and personal
communications.  Because Rupp's results are  similar to ours,  we
summarize them in Table 6 for important major classes.  One may note
that the averages given by Rupp are for those individuals  over 18.
These values would normally be expected to be greater  than  those for
all ages.  There are considerable differences in intakes of meats,
produce, and grains.

     A difficult question to resolve in studies such as this  is the
possibility of bias.  We recognize that even though study participants
may have conscientiously recorded their best estimates of  their
intakes, the potential for recall bias  clearly exists.  Individuals may
forget items they have eaten or systematically underestimate  intake
quantities.  To our knowledge, no study has  been performed  to assess
this effect.

     One way to evaluate dietary intakes is  to compare the resultant
caloric intake with the food energy needs of the corresponding class  of
individuals.  Zach, et al., have taken  this  approach and have concluded
that "... the USNRC77 diets for maximum and average  adults  and teens
fall well short of the expected caloric intake rates"  (Zach,  1983).
Their standard for comparison is primarily the dietary standard for
Canada.  We have estimated the daily caloric intake for an average U.S.
individual using the caloric factors in Table 7.

     These factors (col. 2) are based on caloric data  reported in
(USDA, 1979B).  The resultant daily food intake for an average
individual is 1853 kcal.  For comparison, we have calculated  the
average food energy intake for the Health and Nutrition Examination
Survey. 1971-74 (HANES)(USDHEW, 1979),  the Nationwide  Food Intake
Survey-1977 (NFCS) (USDA, 1984), and the 1980 National Academy of
Sciences Recommended Daily Allowances (USDA, 1980).
                                  12

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                 Table 7.   Caloric  Factors  and  Food  Energy
Food Class
Milk
Other dairy products
Eggs
Beef
Pork
Poultry
Other meat products
Fin fish
Shellfish
Produce
Grains
Water based beverages
Soups
Other beverages
Caloric Factor
(kcal/gram)
0.61
1.76
1.60
2.85
2.87
1.85
2.43
1.90
0.95
0.81
3.42
0.0074
0.42
0.40
Daily Intake
(gram)
253.5
55.1
26.9
87.6
28.2
31.3
25.1
14.7
2.6
282.6
200.0
457.1
45.9
269.9
Food Energy
(kcal)
155
97
43
250
81
58
61
28
2
229
684
3
19
108
   Miscellaneous

       Total
1.00
34.6
  35

1853
     Since our estimate is for an average individual in the 1970 stationary
population, we have weighted the values according to age and sex in the  same
way for each set of data.  HANES considers only ages 1 through 74.   We have
adjusted the value to all ages by presuming that the ratio  of these two  values
would be the same for HANES as for NFCS (1897:1849).  The results of this
comparison are summarized in Table 8.

     Caloric intakes in 1970s declined somewhat compared with those in the
1960s (USDA, 1980).  The HANES result is consistent with this observation.   In
documenting HANES, USDHEW notes: "The recommended dietary allowances are
designed to guide dietitians in formulating diets for the maintenance of good
nutrition in healthy persons.  They allow for some margin above what is  really
needed by most individuals, with the objective of maintaining good  health"
(USDHEW, 1979).  It is interesting to note that the dietary standard for
Canada (Zach,  1983),  2150-5350 kcal for adult males and 1750-4400 kcal for
adult females, appears to be greater than for the United States, perhaps
                                  13

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              Table 8.  Comparisons of Caloric Intakes of the
                             U.S.  Population
                             RDA*
HANES
NFCS
EPA
Year
kcal/day
Relative to RDA
1980
2194
"
1971-74
1925
0.88
1977-78
1849
0.84
1977-78
1853
0.84
        *Recommended Dietary Allowances  (see text).
refecting a somewhat colder climate  than the  U.S.  average.  We  conclude
that our result, 84% of the RDA,  does not necessarily indicate  either
low bias or inadequate nutrient  intakes-

     Based upon the comparisons  of different  dietary  parameters with
the studies discussed above, we  conclude  that  it is appropriate to use
these estimated means of daily food  intake as  food utilization  factors
in the assessment of environmental radionuclide intake by individuals.
                                  14

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                               REFERENCES
USDA, (1979A), U.S. Department of Agriculture.  Coding Manual to Handle
     Data from Nationwide Survey of Individuals.  Spring 1977-78.
     Vols. I & II.  National Technical  Information Service, Springfield,
     Va.

USDA, (1979B), U.S. Department of Agriculture.  Food Composition Data
     Values.  CFE(Adm.)-347.  Science and Education Administration,
     Consumer and Food Economics Institute.

USDA, (1980), U.S. Department of Agriculture.  Food and Nutrient Intakes
     of  Individuals in 1 Day in the United States, Spring 1977.  Nation-
     wide Food Consumption Survey 1977-1978, Preliminary Report NO. 2.
     Science and Education Administration, Consumer and Food Economics
     Institute.

USDA, (1981), U.S. Department of Agriculture.  Basic Sample Design.
     Personal communication from Brucy Gray.

USDA, (1984), U.S. Department of Agriculture.  Food Intakes:
     Individuals in 48 States, Year 1977-78.  Nationwide Food
     Consumption Survey 1977-78, Report  1-1.   Human Nutrition
     Information Service.

USDHEW,  (1979).  Caloric and Selected Nutrient Values for Persons 1-74
     Years of Age:  First Health and Nutrition Examination Survey,
     United States, 1971-1974.  Office of Health Research, Statistics,
     and Technology; National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Depart-
     ment of Health, Education, and Welfare.

Pao, Eleanor M., Kathryn H. Fleming, Patricia M. Guenther, and Sharon J.
     Mickle, (1982).  "Foods Commonly Eaten by Individuals:  Amount Per
     Day and Per Eating Occasion."  U.S. Department  f Agriculture, Home
     Economics Research Report, No. 44.

Rupp, E. M., (1980A).  "Age Dependent Values of Dieta   Intake for
     Assessing Human Exposure to Environmental Pollut .its," Health
     Physics 9, 151-63.

Rupp, E. M., Forest L. Miller, C. F. Baes, III, (1980B).  "Some Results
     of Recent Survey of Fish and Shellfish Consumption by Age and
     Region of U. S. Residents," Ibid,  165-75.

SAS, (1979).  SAS User's Guide, 1979 Edition, pp 244-263.  SAS Institute
     Inc.,  Raleigh, N. C.

Zach R. and Mayoh, K.R., (1983).  "Caloric Contents of Diets for
     Environmental Assessment Models:  A Necessary Condition."  Health
     Physics Vol. 45, No. 3, 786-789.
                                   15

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                    APPENDIX A




THE USDA 1977-78 NATIONWIDE FOOD CONSUMPTION SURVEY

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                                APPENDIX A

           THE USDA 1977-78 NATIONWIDE FOOD CONSUMPTION SURVEY



A.1  Design of the USDA Natiowide Food Consumption Survey

     The basic sample design of the USDA Nationwide Food Consumption
Survey (NFCS) is a multistage, stratified design covering a universe of
all private households in the conterminous United States.  This basic
sampling design consists of four stages  (USDA, 1981):  stratification,
formation and selection of primary sampling units (PSU), selection of
area segments within PSUs, and sampling of housing units.

A.1.1.  Stratification

     The basic design consists of three  levels of stratification:
     First Level:  Census Region

     The conterminous United States, including the District of Columbia,
was divided into four census regions:  Northeast, North Central, South,
and West.  The following is the geographic grouping of states used by the
Bureau of Census (1970):
     Census Region   Geographic Division

     Northeast       New England
                     Middle Atlantic
     North Central   East North Central
                     West North Central
      State

Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont,
Connecticut, Rhode Island.

New York, New Jersey,
Pennsylvania.

Ohio, Illinois, Indiana,
Wisconsin, Michigan.

Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri,
North Dakota, South Dakota,
Nebraska, Kansas.
                                   A-l

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     South           South Atlantic          Maryland,  Delaware,  District of
                                            Columbia,  Virginia,  West Virginia,
                                            North Carolina,  South Carolina,
                                            Georgia,  Florida.

                     East South Central      Kentucky,  Tennessee,  Alabama,
                                            Mississippi.

                     West South Central      Arkansas,  Louisiana,  Texas,
                                            Oklahoma.

     West            Mountain               Montana,  Idaho,  Wyoming, Utah,
                                            Colorado,  New Mexico, Arizona,
                                            Nevada.

                     Pacific                Washington,  Oregon,  California.
     The states within each of these divisions  are,  for the most part,
fairly homogeneous in physical characteristics  as  well  as  in the
characteristics of their population, economic,  and social  conditions;  on
the other hand, each division differs more or less sharply from most
others in these respects.

     Second Level:  Urbanization

     Each housing unit was classified by urbanization as:  central
city—in the central city of a standard metropolitan statistical area
(SMSA); suburban—within an SMSA,  but not in the central city;  or
nonmetropolitan—not within an SMSA.

     A standard metropolitan statistical area consists  of  one or more
entire counties, economically and  socially integrated,  that have a large
population nucleus.  The definition of an SMSA involves two considera-
tions; first, a city or cities of  specified population  to  constitute the
central city and to identify the county in which it  is  located as the
central county; second, economic and social relationships  with contiguous
counties which are metropolitan in character, so that the  periphery of
the specific metropolitan area may be determined.   Standard metropolitan
statistical areas may cross state  lines to include qualified contiguous
counties (Shryock, et al., 1976).

     Third Level:  Sampling Stratum

     The third level of stratification groups census units with like
geographic divisions and urbanization to produce sampling  strata.  One
hundred fourteen (114) (Table A-l) strata were formed incorporating all
housing units in the entire conterminous United States.  The average
stratum size is approximately 600,000 housing units.
                                   A-2

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  Table  A-l.   Number  of  Strata in the  Nationwide  Food  Consumption  Survey
                  by Region,  Division, and Urbanization
Region
Northeast

North
Central
South


West

Division Central
City
New England
Middle Atlantic
East North Central
West North Central
South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
2
8
8
2
4
2
4
2
6
Sub-
urban
3
9
8
2
6
1
2
1
7
Nonraetro-
politan
2
4
6
5
7
4
5
2
2
Total
7
21
22
9
17
7
11
5
15
TOTAL
    38
39
37
114
A.1.2.  Formation and Selection of PSUs

     Every stratum was divided into one or more primary sampling units,
or PSUs, formed from cities, parts of cities, or counties, containing at
least 10,000 housing units each.  One PSU per stratum was randomly
selected according to the following probablistic scheme:
          Pii =
i = 1,2,...,  114;
i = l?      \t • •
J   1 » ^ > • • • j  K-l >
                                                               (A.I)
where
     p^^ = the probability of the jth PSU in the ith stratum being
             chosen,
     nj; = number of housing units in the jth PSU in the ith stratum,
      k£ = number of PSU in the ith stratum,
      N.: = total number of housing units in the ith stratum.

A. 1.3.  Selection of Area Segments within PSUs

     Each selected PSU was a.     d into small clusters of housing units
called area segments.  The i     ts, designed to contain 100 or more
housing units, were based o      1970 Census and usually consisted of one
or more city blocks in urba    jas and a part of a Census Enumeration
District elsewhere.  From all PSUs, 2550 segments were randomly selected
                                   A-3

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with the number of segments in a PSU being proportional to the size of
the stratum in which the PSU was located.   The probability that
individual segments were drawn in a PSU was proportional to the ratio of
the number of units in the segments to the total number of units in the
PSU.  There was one exception.  Three strata,  New York City, Chicago, and
Los Angeles County, each with size well in excess of 600,000,  were
selected with certainty.  Each of these was defined as two PSUs.
Sampling from these three strata was done  directly without further
stratification by area segment.

A.1.4.  Sampling of Housing Units

     All 2550 area segments were prelisted to  determine the number of
occupied housing units.  Then, the national increase or decrease in the
number of housing units from 1970 to 1977  was  estimated.  This
information, along with estimates of occupancy and completion  rates,
permitted sampling rpf:i>t, co be calculated for the area segments that
would yield a total ot 3750 households per quarter.

     For the first two quarters, an average sampling ratio of  2.3
households per segment was used.  The housing  units  were ordered within
their respective segments.  For each quarter,  a sample was systematically
selected from each segment without replacement after a random  start.  By
the end of the second quarter, the estimated completion rate had been
adjusted, and an average sampling ratio of 2.86 households per segment
was used for the last two quarters.  Note  that once the segments were
chosen,  different households would be sampled  from the same segments for
each season.
A.2.  Household and Individual Survey

     The Nationwide Food Consumption Survey consisted of two parts:
household and individual.

     Household Survey

     For every sampled household,  the eligible respondent was the person
who usually planned and prepared the meals  in the  seven  days before  the
interview.  He or she was asked to keep dietary records, such as grocery
shopping lists and receipts,  menus,  and labels from canned and packaged
foods used for the meals.   The information, in part, included:

          -number of meals eaten during the past 7 days  by each
          household member—from home supplies, not from home
          supplies,

          -number of meals and refreshments served at home to
          nonhousehold members during the past 7 days—number,
          type, sex, age of consumers,
                                   A-4

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          -household food consumption during the past 7
          days—description of food, form, quantity, and money
          values, etc.

          Individual Survey

     Individuals from the sampled household were asked, as in the 7-day
household survey, to keep records of their food intake.  However, this
survey was different from the household part in many respects:

     -this was a 3-day instead of a 1-day survey.  It included a
     one-day recall (yesterday), and a 2-day record (today and
     tomorrow) of food intake.

     -in the spring quarter, every member of a sampled household was
     interviewed, but in the remaining quarters, all persons younger
     than 19, and one-half of all persons 19 and older were inter-
     viewed.  If there was only one person in the household, he or she
     was included with certainty.

     -food intake records were kept for all foods and beverages
     consumed.

     The food intake information included:

     -for each eating/drinking occasion, whether food was consumed at
     or away from home,  information was collected for each item as to
     when, with whom, in what quantity and from what source.  For
     away-from-home food, data on type of service and cost were also
     collected.

     -intake of water.
                                    A-5

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                              REFERENCES
USDA (1981).  U.S. Department of Agriculture.   Basic Sample Design.
     Personal communication with Brucy Gray.

Department of Commerce, (1970).   "Pocket data  book,  U.S.A.  1970."

Shryock, H. S. and J. S. Siegel  and Associates (1976).  "The Methods
     and Materials of Demography," Academic Press.   New York.
                                   A-6

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     APPENDIX B




STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

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                               APPENDIX B

                          STATISTICAL  ANALYSIS
B.I.  Statistical Model

     The data collected by USDA in this survey were very extensive.
Many individuals were interviewed regarding their food intake; each was
asked many questions.  The data consisted of numerous variables and
factors for a large number of people.  For example, in addition to
questions related to food consumption, there were 21 variables.  Of
these, seven, for the purpose of the EPA1 s study, might be contributing
factors of food consumption.  We attempted to discern whether there
were any relationships between these factors and food intake by fitting
a linear model to food intake incorporating these factors.

     Data of this type must be subjected to careful preliminary
examination before trying to fit a model involving many factors with
several levels.  A model that would normally have main effects could
also include many high order interactions.  As a result, the model
could be very lengthy and complex.  Before including a possible
interaction we considered its practical significance and also the
practicability of incorporating large numbers of (main) factors and
interactions into the analysis.

     After considering the design of the survey and the objective of
our study, we adopted the following statistical model:


y. . ,     = M +R. + D., . , + U, , . v +DU,., + S ,. ,
•'ijklmpqr        i    j(i)    kU)     jkd)    Id)
                + P  (. .. •. + Sex  + A  + (Sex * A)   + e . ., .         (B.l)
                   rndjk;      p    q            pq    ijklmpqr


where :
          = t'ie f°o<* intake of the rth individual in the qth age group
            of pth sex (male: p = 1; female: p = 2) in the m(ijk)th PSU and in
            the 1th season;

       R^ = the ith census region, i = 1,2,3,4;

    D-(J) = the jth geographic division in the ith census region,
            j = l,2,...,n£ (since there are a total of 9 divisions,
            Z i»i = 9);
                                   B-l

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    Uk(i) = tne ktn urbanization  in  the  ith  region, k  -  1,2,3;

  DUjk(i) = the interaction effect of the  jth division with the
            kth urbanization in the  ith  region;

    £>l(i) = the 1th season in the region i,  1 =  1,2,3,4;
  Pm(ijk)  = the mth PSU in the ^-th regi°n>  tne  Jth division and  in
            the kth urbanization,
m
              = l,2,...,Tiik (since  there  are  111  PSUs ,  Z  T^ =  111);
     Sex  = male (p = 1)  or  female  (p  =  2)

       A  = the qth age group,  q  =  1,2,..., 10.

eijklmpqr = the random error associated  with yijkimnpqr.


     The geographic division in the nested  classification was obvious;
however, the urbanization and season in  the  nested classification were
not that clear.  Since each census  region covers vast  areas, winter,
for example, in one region may  not  be  same  as in the others.  The same
is true for degree of urbanization.  P (PSU) was treated as a random
factor.  Respondents were divided into 10 age groups by year:  under 1,
1 to 4, 5 to 9, 10 to 14, 15 to 19, 20 to 24, 25 to  29, 30 to 39, 40 to
59, 60 and over.  The random error, e, is assumed to be normally
distributed with mean 0 and variance,  a  .

     One of the assumptions  for the analysis of variance is that y and
e in the model are independent and  normally distributed.  With this and
other conditions, tests of hypothesis  are possible,  and confidence in-
tervals can be derived.  In an analysis  of  variance  we chose the mean
square of "PSU," instead of  "segment," "household,"  or "individual," as
an estimate of the variance of sampling  error.  The  reasons were as
follows :

     1)   Individuals were subsampling units in the  summer, autumn, and
          winter quarters, but  not  in  the spring quarter.

     2)   The intake data of individuals from the same household were
          correlated.

     3)   For each quarter,  the sample of housing units was system-
          atically selected, with a random  start, from each area
          segment without replacement, i.e., the housing units were
          sampled repeatedly from the  same  segment for the different
          quarters.  The housing units from the same segment in the
          different season were not totally independent.
                                   B-2

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     4)   The segments from which the housing units were selected were
          highly clustered.  The segments selected were not randomly
          scattered in the PSU ; therefore,  neighboring segments  were
          correlated .

     Since, as described in A. 1.2, PSUs were randomly selected we have
used the mean square of PSU as an estimate  of the sampling error; the
analytical results we obtained would be somewhat conservative.

     Because the original design was unbalanced, traditional analysis
of variance methods were not applicable.  Instead, we have used  the
general linear model procedures (Searle, 1971).  The model in equation
(B.I) can be rewritten in matrix form:

               I = Xb. + e                                        (B.2)
where :

     Y = an N x 1 vector of observations, y, N is the total number of
     observations in the survey.  N = 30770 in the present case.  If is
     normally distributed with mean Xb_, and variance, a _I, _I is  an
     N x N identity matrix.

     b_ = a p x 1 vector of parameters;  it is the vector of all param-
     eters of the model.

     X = an N x p design matrix, Os and Is throughout the matrix rep-
     resent the incidence of terms of the model among the observations,
     i.e., the incidence of the classifications in which the observa-
     tions lie.

     e_ = an N x 1 vector of random error terms; e_ is normally distrib-
     uted with mean J) and variance a _I.

     Note that X does not have full column rank, neither does X'X.  The
normal equations corresponding to the model can be derived by least
squares, we obtain

               X'jSb0  = X'Y.                                      (B.3)

     Since X'X is not of full rank, X'X has no unique inverse, and the
normal equations (B.3) have no unique solution.  There are many possi-
ble solutions.  To get any of them, we  find a generalized inverse C- of
 t'X, and write
                _                                                  (B.4)

     Define

                H  = GX'X.                                        (B.5)
                                   B-3

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     The b_° in equation (B.4) for a solution to normal equation (B.3)
emphasizes that what is derived by solving equation (B.3) is only a solu-
tion to the equations and not an estimator of b_.  This point cannot be
overemphasized.  In a general discussion of linear models that are not of
full rank, it is essential to realize that what is obtained as a solution
of the normal equations is just a solution and nothing more.  It is mis-
leading and in most cases quite wrong for b_° to be termed an estimator of
b_.  The particular solution obtained for b_° depends entirely on which JS
is used.

     Although b_° is not an estimator of b_, it is, in a practical sense,
closely related to b_.  In order to establish this relationship,  the con-
cept of estimable functions is essential.  A linear function of the para-
meters, q_'b_, is defined as estimable if it is identically equal  to some
linear function of the expected value of the vector of observations
Y_, i.e., for any g_, if there exists a vector t_ such that t/E(Y)  = q_'b_,
then 
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     2)  Seasons

     Each season had the same length of duration,  i.e.,  three months.
Their distribution is, therefore, uniform.

     3)  Age and sex

     We generated distributions of age and  sex based on  the  1969-71
U.S. stationary population (National Center for Health Statistics,
1975,) with age- and sex-specific mortality  rates and a constant male-
to-female birth ratio of 1.051 (Shryock,  et al., 1976).   The  distribu-
tions of the resulting stationary population by age  and  sex  are given
in Table B-l.

     The stationary population was based on the life table technique.
A stationary population is a population whose total  number and distri-
bution by age do not change with time.  The birth  rate remains constant
for a long period of time, and each cohort  of births experiences the
current observed mortality rate throughout  life.   This hypothetical
population provides age weighted values which are  substantially cor-
rected for those effects such as fluctuating birth or migration rates
which affect the age distribution of a population  but not its age-
specific mortality.

     The weighting factors described above  were applied  to Tables A-l
and B-l to estimate the individual means  shown in  Table  3.
    Table B-l.   Percent Distribution  of the Stationary Population
                           by Age and Sex
   Age
 (years)
 Total
 Male
Female
TOTAL

Under 1
1 to 4
5 to 9

10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24

25 to 29
30 to 39
40 to 59

60 and over
100.00

  1.40
  5.53
  6.89

  6.88
  6.86
  6.81

  6.75
 13.34
 24.89

 20.65
48.56

  .72
 2.83
 3.52

 3.51
   50
   46
 3.42
 6.73
12.31

 8.56
 51.44

   .68
  2.70
  3.37
    37
    36
    35
  3.33
  6.61
 12.58
 12.09
                                   B-5

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                             REFERENCES
National Center for Health Statistics, (1975).  "United States Life
Tables, 1969-71", Vol. 1, No. 1.  U.S. Department of Health, Educa-
tion and Welfare.

Searle, S. R., (1971).  "Linear Models," John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
New York.

Shryock, H. S. and J. S. Siegel and Associates, (1976).  "The
Methods and Materials of Demography," Academic Press.  New York.
                                    5-6

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