United States Office of EPA 520/1-86-002
Environmental Protection Radiation Programs January 1986
Agency Washington, D.C. 20460
Radiation
&EPA Proposed Standard for
Radon - 222 Emissions from
Tailings
Draft Economic Analysis
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40 CFR Part 61 EPA 520/1-86-002
National Emission Standards
for Hazardous Air Pollutants
PROPOSED STANDARDS FOR RADON-222
EMISSIONS FROM LICENSED URANIUM MILL TAILINGS
DRAFT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
January 1986
Prepared by:
Jack Faucett Associates
5454 Wisconsin Avenue
Suite 1145
Chevy Chase, Maryland 20815
Office of Radiation Programs
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER TITLE PAGE
1 INTRODUCTION 1
2 INDUSTRY PROFILE 3
2.1 SUPPLY 3
2.2 DEMAND 16
2.3 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE ... 23
REFERENCES 46
3 PROFILE OF TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS AT LICENSED
URANIUM MILLS 48
4 FORECASTS OF PRODUCTION, EMPLOYMENT, AND
BASELINE HEALTH EFFECTS 54
4.1 PROJECTIONS OF DOMESTIC URANIUM
PRODUCTION 55
4.2 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS 78
4.3 BASELINE ESTIMATES OF FUTURE RADON-222
EMISSIONS AND FATAL LUNG CANCERS 78
REFERENCES 87
5 ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES FOR MILL TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS 89
5.1 DESCRIPTION OF WORK PRACTICES 89
5.2 WORK PRACTICES FOR EXISTING TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS 93
5.3 WORK PRACTICES FOR NEW TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS 94
REFERENCES 97
6 BENEFITS AND COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES 98
6.1 COST OF ALTERNATIVE PRACTICES 98
6.2 BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES . . 107
6.3 ESTIMATED TOTAL SOCIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS
OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES 112
6.4 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 172
7 ECONOMIC IMPACTS 193
7.1 INCREASED PRODUCTION COST 193
7.2 REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS 198
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LIST OF EXHIBITS
EXHIBIT TITLE PAGE
2-1 TOTAL URANIUM CONCENTRATE PRODUCTION,
1947-1984 5
2-2 PRODUCTION OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE BY
CONVENTIONAL MILLS AND OTHER SOURCES ... 6
2-3 URANIUM MILL CAPACITY 7
2-4 IMPORTS OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE FOR
COMMERCIAL USES 8
2-5 U.S. COMMERCIALLY-OWNED URANIUM INVENTORIES
AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1983 AND 1984 10
2-6 LINEAR APPROXIMATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF
1983 AVERAGE COST OF URANIUM PRODUCTION. . 12
2-7 COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
UNDERGROUND MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-
THICKNESS RATIO OF 76 AND AN ORE GRADE
OF 0.25 PERCENT U3Og 13
2-8 COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
OPEN-PIT MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-THICKNESS
RATIO OF 24 AND AN ORE GRADE OF
0.20 PERCENT U3Og 14
2-9 REASONABLY ASSURED RESOURCES 15
2-10 STATUS OF U.S. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
AS OF JUNE 30, 1985 19
2-11 DELIVERIES OF URANIUM TO DOE ENRICHMENT
PLANTS BY DOMESTIC UTILITIES 20
2-12 EXPORTS OF URANIUM 21
2-13 AVERAGE CONTRACT PRICES AND FLOOR PRICES
OF MARKET PRICE CONTRACTS BY YEAR
OF CONTRACT SIGNING 24
2-14 HISTORICAL NUEXCO EXCHANGE VALUES 25
2-15 PRICES FOR FOREIGN-ORIGIN URANIUM AS
OF JANUARY 1, 1984 26
n
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LIST OF EXHIBITS: (Continued)
EXHIBIT TITLE PAGE
2-16 CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, EMPLOYMENT, AND ACTIVE
MILLS: CONVENTIONAL URANIUM
MILLING INDUSTRY 27
2-17 OPERATING STATUS AND CAPACITY OF LICENSED
CONVENTIONAL URANIUM MILLS AS OF
NOVEMBER 1985 28
2-18 EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.S. URANIUM MILLING
INDUSTRY BY STATE, 1984 30
2-19 URANIUM MILLING ACTIVITY IN THE
STATE OF WYOMING 31
2-20 FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM
INDUSTRY, 1980-1984 34
2-21(a) KERR-MCGEE COPORATION URANIUM OPERATIONS:
FINANCIAL DATA, 1982-1984 38
2-21(b) KERR-MCGEE CORPORATION URANIUM OPERATIONS:
RESERVES, PRODUCTION, PRICES, AND
DELIVERIES, 1980-1984 38
2-22 HOMESTAKE MINING COMPANY
URANIUM OPERATIONS: 1982-1984 39
2-23 RIO ALGOM URANIUM OPERATIONS, 1981-1983 41
2-24 PHELPS DODGE ENERGY OPERATIONS, 1981-1984 ... 42
2-25(a) UNION PACIFIC MINING OPERATIONS:
FINANCIAL INFORMATION, 1981-1984 44
2-25(b) UNION PACIFIC URANIUM RESERVES AND
PRODUCTION 44
3-1 SUMMARY OF URANIUM MILL TAILINGS PILES 49
3-2 SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS UNDER CURRENT
CONDITIONS 51
3-3 SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL FATAL CANCERS
FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS 53
in
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LIST OF EXHIBITS; (Continued)
EXHIBIT TITLE PAGE
4-1 ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF UgOg, 1980-2000 . 56
4-2 PROJECTED ELECTRICITY-GENERATION CAPACITY . . 60
4-3 SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY: 1980-1984 AND
REFERENCE CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE
YEAR 2000 61
4-4 SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY: 1980-1984 AND
ALTERNATIVE-CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE
THE YEAR 2000 62
4-5 POST-2000 PROJECTIONS OF ANNUAL DOMESTIC
PRODUCTION OF UgOg 64
4-6 ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U~O8,
1980-2085 67
4-7 TOTAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF UgOg 68
4-8 DOMESTIC URANIUM RESOURCES 71
4-9 PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
IN 2085 UNDER VARIOUS SCENARIOS 75
4-10 AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN
ELECRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085 77
4-11 AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN PER
CAPITAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085 . . 79
4-12 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS: 1985-2085 80
4-13 NUMBER OF EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS IN USE
AND NEW MILLS/IMPOUNDMENTS OPENED BY PERIOD
FOR THE REFERENCE CASE AND THE ALTERNATE
CASE 84
4-14 ESTIMATED COMMITTED FATAL LUNG CANCERS FROM
RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING AND FUTURE
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS 85
4-15 ESTIMATED FATAL LUNG CANCERS FROM EMISSIONS
OF RADON-222 FROM EXISTING AND FUTURE TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS 86
6-1 ESTIMATED COSTS OF BELOW-GRADE MODEL NEW
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS 99
IV
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LIST OF EXHIBITS: (Continued)
EXHIBIT
6-2
6-3
6-4
6-5
6-6
6-7
6-8
6-9
6-10A
6-1 OB
6-1OC
6-11A
TITLE
PAGE
6-1 IB
6-11C
ESTIMATED COSTS OF PARTIALLY BELOW-GRADE NEW
MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS 100
CONSTRUCTION AND COVER COST STREAM AND
PRESENT VALUE FOR ALTERNATIVE MODEL NEW
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS (BELOW GRADE) 102
COST OF FINAL COVER OPTION ON EXISTING PILES . . 104
COST OF INTERIM COVER OPTIONS ON EXISTING
PILES 106
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM MODEL
NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS 108
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS AND
FATAL CANCERS AVOIDED DUE TO MODEL NEW
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS 109
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FOR EXISTING
TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS GIVEN VARIOUS
COVERS 110
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED YEARLY FATAL CANCERS
FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS FOR
VARIOUS COVERS Ill
ADDED COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS
AFTER FILLING 114
ADDED COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS—PHASED DISPOSAL ... 115
ADDED COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL . 116
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND ADDED CUMULATIVE
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS
AFTER FILLING ,119
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL .
120
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST
OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL 121
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LIST OF EXHIBITS: (Continued)
EXHIBIT
6-12
6-13 A
6-13 B
6-13 C
6-14 A
TITLE
PAGE
6-14B
6-14C
6-15
6-16 A
6-1 6B
6-16 C
6-16D
6-16E
6-16F
PRESENT VALUE COST OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS 122
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS
AFTER FILLING 124
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL ... 125
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS
DISPOSAL 126
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER
FILLING 127
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL 128
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL 129
SUMMARY OF BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS 130
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY
1990 132
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 .... 133
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY
2000 134
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 .... 135
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH
INTERIM COVER 136
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH
INTERIM COVER 137
VI
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LIST OF EXHIBITS: (Continued)
EXHIBIT
6-16G
6-16 H
6-161
6-17A
6-17B
6-17C
6-17D
6-17 E
6-17F
6-17G
6-17H
6-171
6-18
6-19
TITLE
PAGE
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH
INTERIM COVER 138
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH
INTERIM COVER 139
COST OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS 140
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 141
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 142
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 143
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 144
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH ITNERIM COVER . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER . .
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF INTERIM COVER AT
EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
COMPARISON OF THE PRESENT VALUES OF TYPE 1
AND TYPE 2 COSTS AS A FUNCTION OF
THE REAL DISCOUNT RATE
PRESENT VALUE COSTS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS, FOR VARIOUS ALTERNATIVES .
145
146
147
148
149
151
153
vu
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LIST OF EXHIBITS; (Continued)
EXHIBIT TITLE PAGE
6-20A BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1990 154
6-20B BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1995 155
6-20C BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 2000 156
6-20D BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 2005 157
6-2OE BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1990 WITH ITERIM COVER 158
6-20 F BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER 159
6-20G BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER 160
6-20H BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER 161
6-201 BENEFITS OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS 162
6-21A GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 1990 163
6-21B GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 1995 164
6-21C GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 2000 165
6-21D GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 2005 166
viii
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LIST OF EXHIBITS; (Continued)
EXHIBIT TITLE PAGE
6-21E GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER 167
6-21F GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER ... 168
6-21G GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER ... 169
6-21H GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER 170
6-211 GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING
URANIUM MILLS 171
6-22 FATALITIES AVOIDED BY ALTERNATIVE WORK
PRACTICES AT EXISTING MILLS, BY YEAR OF
FINAL STABILIZATION 173
6-23 SUMMARY OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR COSTS
AND BENEFITS 174
6-24A RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANAYSIS FOR
FUTURE MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION 176
6-24B RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR
FUTURE MILLS: 20 YEAR BASELINE 177
6-24C RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR
FUTURE MILLS: PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE
DISPOSAL 178
6-24D RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE
MILLS: RECOVERABLE INTERIM COVER COSTS ... 179
6-25A RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING
MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION 180
6-25B RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT
EXISTING MILLS: 20-YEAR BASELINE 181
6-25C RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT
EXISTING MILLS: PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE
DISPOSAL 182
6-25D RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT
EXISTING MILLS: RECOVERABLE INTERIM
COVER COSTS 183
ix
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
EPA issued environmental standards for nuclear power operations (40 CFR Part 190) in
1977. These standards limit the total radiation dose caused by radionuclide emissions
from facilities that comprise the uranium fuel cycle, including uranium mills and
tailings. However, the dose due to radon-222 was exempted from the standard. At the
time 40 CFR 190 was promulgated, there existed considerable uncertainty about the
public health impact of existing levels of radon-222 as well as uncertainty about the
best method for management of new man-made sources of radon-222. It was decided to
consider radon-222 separately under a subsequent standard.
When EPA promulgated emission standards under the Clean Air Act for radionucKdes
emitted from licensed commercial processing facilities (40 CFR 192) in October of
1983, those NRC facilities previously regulated under 40 CFR 190, such as uranium
mills, were exempted because they were subject to a rule that provided protection
substantially equivalent to that of the Clean Air Act rule. Consequently, radon-222
emissions from operating uranium mills were not included in either of the above rules.
EPA did consider radon-222 emissions from licensed uranium mills when standards (10
CFR 192) were issued under the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act
(UMTRCA) in 1983 for the management of tailings at locations that are licensed by the
NRC or Agreement States under Title II of that law. But the final rule did not limit
radon-222 emissions until after the closure of the facilit" and termination of the mill
operating license except to apply the "as low as reasonably achievable" (ALARA)
principle in establishing management procedures and regulations during operation. EPA
did state, at the time UMTRCA standards were promulgated, that an Advanced Notice
of Proposed Rulemaking would be issued to consider control of radon-222 from tailings
piles during the operational period of an uranium mill.
On October 31, 1984, EPA announced in the Federal Register an Advance Notice of
Proposed Rulemaking to inform interested parties that the Agency is considering
standards for radon-222 emissions for licensed uranium ore processing facilities
(uranium mills) under the Clean Air Act. Subsequently, EPA entered into an agreement
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with the Sierra Club to promulgate these standards by May 1, 1986. This was
formalized by a court stipulation from the United States District Court for the
Northern District of California.
This document presents the findings of an economic analysis of alternative proposed
work practices for controlling radon-222 emissions during the operation of licensed
uranium mills. The report contains separate chapters which discuss the:
• current status of the domestic uranium milling industry;
• current radon-222 emissions and risk estimates;
• baseline forecasts of production, emissions, and health effects in the
absence of the proposed rules;
• descriptions of proposed alternative work practices for controlling radon-
222 emissions from tailings impoundments;
• estimates of the benefits and costs of these alternative work practices;
• the probable economic impacts of the proposed rules; and
• consideration of the financial impacts of the proposed rule on the owners
of existing and future mills, and the consumers of nuclear-generated
electricity.
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CHAPTER 2
INDUSTRY PROFILE
The U.S. uranium milling industry is an integral part of a domestic uranium production
industry that includes companies engaged in uranium exploration, mining, milling, and
downstream activities leading to the production of fuel for nuclear power plants. The
product of uranium milling is uranium concentrate, also referred to as uranium oxide,
yellowcake, or U^Og. Uranium concentrate may be produced either from mined and
milled ore or through alternative sources such as solution mines, heap leaching, mine
water, mill tailings, low-grade stockpiles, and as a byproduct of other activities.
Conventional production from mined and milled ore is the focus of this report. In 1984,
conventional production amounted to 64.4 percent of total U3Og production of 7,450
tons (DOE 85a).
The following pages describe the supply and demand characteristics of the conventional
uranium milling industry. Section 2.1 provides an overview of current and historical
sources of U3Og (domestic production, imports, and inventories) and analyzes the cost
of production. Section 2.2 characterizes the use of uranium by the nuclear power
industry, describes factors influencing demand, and reviews uranium pricing mecha-
nisms. Section 2.3 concludes the chapter with a review of industry structure and
performance, including industry and individual company statistics on capacity, produc-
tion, employment, mill location, and financial performance.
2.1 SUPPLY
2.1.1 Sources of Supply
The uranium used to fuel nuclear reactors is supplied by domestic and foreign
producers; the removal of uranium from utility inventories; and secondary market
transactions such as producer-to-producer sales, utility-to-utility sales and loans, and
utility-to-producer sales. The role of each is described in the following sections.
Production from alternative sources does not produce the mill tailings that are the
object of the proposed regulation. Two of the alternative sources, mine water and heap
leaching, frequently go through the secondary milling circuit but never the primary circuit.
They therefore contribute to the liquid portion of mill tailings but not the solid portion.
The other alternative sources are not milled.
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Domestic Production
Exhibit 2-1 shows trends in domestic uranium production from 1947 to 1984, by state.
Total production was relatively constant at 10,500 to 12,500 tons per year until 1977,
when it began an increase that peaked in 1980 at 21,852 tons. Production has declined
in each year since, reaching only 7,441 tons in 1984 (DOE 85b).
Coinciding with the overall decline in the domestic production industry is a decline in
the share of production represented by conventional mills, as production from other
sources has remained fairly steady. Conventional milling has historically accounted for
over 90 percent of U.S. production. In 1983, the conventional share of production fell
to 70.6 percent, and in 1984 dropped again, to 64.7 percent (Exhibit 2-2). The result has
been severe overcapacity and mill closings (DOE 85a). Milling capacity, which almost
doubled between 1975 and 1980 when the price of uranium was high and optimistic
demand forecasts stimulated investment in milling facilities, once enjoyed a utilization
rate of 94 percent (JFA 85a). In March 1985, capacitv utilization was about 71 percent
at operating mills. The number of operating mills has declined dramatically also, from
20 in 1981 to only two in June 1985 (DOE 85a). Industr^ sources indicate that the two
remaining mills are now operating at less than 50 percent of capacity (DOE 85a).
Uranium mill capacities and utilization levels are fisted in Exhibit 2-3.
Imports
A second source of uranium is the import market. From 1964 to 1976, foreign uranium
was effectively banned from U.S. markets by a law prohibiting the enrichment of
imports for domestic use. This restriction was lifted gradually after 1977, and was
eliminated completely by 1984. As a result, imports grew from zero prior to 1975, to
37.4 percent of U.S. requirements in 1984 (DOE 85a). The primary sources of U.S.
uranium imports are Canada, South Africa, and Australia. In 1983, 66 percent of U.S.
uranium imports were from Canada, 26 percent were from South Africa, and the
remaining eight percent were from various other nations (DOE 84a). Exhibit 2-4 shows
the history of U.S. imports from 1967 through 1984.*
The unusually high 1982 figure of 8,500 tons included a large exchanere transaction
which should be excluded to obtain a more realistic picture of imports. Eliminating this
transaction, 1982 imports were only slightly higher than in 1983.
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EXHIBIT 2-1:
TOTAL URANIUM CONCENTRATE PRODUCTION, 1947-1984
(Short Tons UO)
Year(s)
1947-1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Colorado
29,652
1,423
1,340
1,614
1,678
(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(0
New Mexico
54,301
5,076
5,933
6,192
5,943
5,771
5,305
5,464
4,634
4,951
5,191
6,059
6,779
8,539
7,423
7,751
6,206
3,906
2,830
1,458
Texas
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(0
(c)
(c)
(c)
2,651
3,408
3,141
2,131
1,600
1,310
Utah
28,924
(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
Wyoming
18,449
2,248
2,667
2,873
3,063
3,654
3,487
4,216
5,159
3,767
3,447
4,046
4,990
5,329
5,452
6,036
4,355
2,521
2,630
1,560
Others3
8,380
1,842
1,313
1,689
925
3,480
3,481
3,220
3,442
2,810
2,962
2,642
3,170
4,618
3,210
4,657
5,535
4,876
3,519
3,113
Total
139,706
10,589
11,253
12,368
11,609
12,905
12,273
12,900
13,235
11,528
11,600
12,747
14,939
18,486
18,736
21,852
19,237
13,434
10,579
7,441
Includes, for various years, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and
Washington.
Data were not collected.
'Included in the "Others" category.
Source: DOE 85b
-------
EXHIBIT 2-2;
PRODUCTION OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE
BY CONVENTIONAL MILLS
AND OTHER SOURCES
1974-1984
(Short Tons U3Og)
a
Year
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Saleable U.
Conventional
Production
17,172
16,877
18,903
15,998
10,447
7,760
4,813
tOfl obtained from
Other
Production8
1,315
1,860
2,950
3,239
2,988
2,820
2,628
in situ leaching and
Total
Production
18,486
18,736
21,852
19,237
13,434
10,579
7,441
as a byproduct of other
Conventional
Production
As Percent
Of Total
92.9
90.0
86.5
83.2
77.8
73.3
64.7
processing.
Source: DOE 85b
-------
EXHIBIT 2-3;
URANIUM MILL CAPACITY
(Tons of Ore Per Day)
1981
1982
1983
1984
March 1985
Total
Capacity
54,050
55,050
51,650
48,450
49,450
Operating
Capacity
49,800
33,650
29,250
19,250
11,950
Operating
Capacity
Utilization
Rate
83
74
58
64
71
Total
Capacity
Utilization
Rate
77
45
33
25
18
Source: DOE 85a
-------
EXHIBIT 2-4;
IMPORTS OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE
FOR COMMERCIAL USES
1974-1984
(Short Tons UO)
Year of
Delivery
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Imports
0
700
1,800
2,800
2,600
1,500
1,800
3,300
8,550
4,100
6,250
Source: DOE 85b
-------
Forecasts of import penetration call for the import share to grow through the 1990's.
The Department of Energy projects that without government intervention, between
1990 and 2000 imports will range between 54 and 69 percent of domestic utility
requirements, depending on demand levels. Government action is a real possibility
however. Public Law 97-415 calls for a special study of the uranium industry at any
time that executed contracts or options for source material will result in greater than
37.5 percent of actual or projected domestic uranium requirements for any two-con-
secutive-year period. According to DOE estimates, current import commitments make
up no more than 32 percent of U.S. utility requirements in any year between 1985 and
2000. However, if utilities continue to turn to foreign sources at the rates seen in
recent years, executed contracts for imports will rise above 37.5 percent of require-
ments and possibly trigger Federal intervention (DOE 85a).
Inventories
Utilities hold uranium inventories in order to meet changes in the scheduling of various
stages of the fuel cycle, such as minor delays in deliveries of uranium feed. Uranium
inventories also protect the utilities against disruption of nuclear fuel supplies. The
average "forward coverage" currently desired by domestic utilities (in terms of forward
reactor operating requirements) is 18 months for natural uranium (U3Og) and seven
months for enriched uranium hexafluoride (UFg) (DOE 85a).
Exhibit 2-5 fists inventories of commercially owned natural and enriched uranium held
in the United States as of December 31, 1982, 1983, and 1984. DOE-owned inventories
are not included. The uranium inventory owned by utilities alone at the end of 1984
represented almost five years of forward coverage. Including the 11,950 tons of
inventories held by domestic uranium producers and fuel fabricators would extend the
forward coverage by nine months (DOE 85a).
Secondary Market Transactions
The secondary market for uranium includes producer-to-producer sales, utility-to-
utility sales and loans, and utility-to-producer sales. The secondary market, by
definition, does not increase the supply of uranium, only the alternatives for purchasing
it. As such, secondary transactions can have a significant impact on the demand for
new production and on the year-to-year changes in inventories. The secondary market
-------
EXHIBIT 2-5;
U.S. COMMERCIALLY-OWNED URANIUM INVENTORIES
AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1983 AND 1984
(Short Tons U3Og Equivalent)
1982
Owner Category
Utilities
Suppliers
TOTAL
Natural
49,550
18,550
68,100
Enriched
18,950
350
19,300
1983
Natural
46,600
16,900
63,500
Enriched
32,050
350
32,400
1984
Natural
47,950
11,450
59,400
Enriched
31,800
500
32,300
Source: DOE 85b
10
-------
has been significant in recent years. During 1983, sales of 2,600 tons of U3Og
equivalent were made between domestic utilities and suppliers in the secondary market.
During 1984, this quantity decreased to 850 tons (DOE 85a).
2.1.2 Cost of Production
In 1984, the average cost of producing U3Og from ore mined and milled in the United
States was approximately $35 per pound (JFA 85a). Costs of production vary greatly
among producers, however, ranging from $11.50 to $53.00 (Exhibit 2-6). Exhibits 2-7
and 2-8 fist the 1977 costs of production, by cost element, for sample underground and
open-pit mines. Capital costs for mill construction ranged from $1.99 to $3.98 per ton
of ore processed, equal to 5.3 to 12.5 percent of the cost of production. Mill operating
costs ranged from $5.41 to $10.16 per ton of ore, equal to 15.0 to 31.1 percent of
production cost. Higher costs are generally associated with smaller capacity mines.
The exhibits also show that milling costs are higher for low-grade deposits than for
high-grade deposits, since the amount of ore that must be processed to yield a pound of
U3Og is greater for the former. Since the average grade of ore processed has
decreased (from 0.154 in 1977 to 0.128 percent U3Og in 1983), the share of production
costs accounted for by milling has probably increased (Zi 79).
Reasonably assured resources of uranium in each of 32 countries are listed, by cost
category, in Exhibit 2-9. As the exhibit shows, while the U.S. has 20 percent of the
total reserves, it accounts for only 9 percent of the lower cost reserves (less than $36
per pound). Five countries — Australia, Brazil, Canada, Niger, and South Africa —
have greater reserves in the lower cost category (OECD 83). In 198" Canada and South
Africa accounted for 90 percent of uranium imports (DOE 84a).
The differences in cost of production for the U.S. and other countries can be explained
to a large extent by the grade of ore available in each country. The cost of producing
uranium is largely a function of the grade of the ore in the ore body. Since the U.S.
Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) include uranium in known mineral deposits of such
size, grade, and configuration that it could be recovered within the given production
cost ranges, with currently proven mining and processing technology. Estimates of
tonnage and grade are based on specific sample data, measurements of the deposits, and
knowledge of deposit characteristics. Reasonably Assured Resources have a high
assurance of existence.
11
-------
EXHIBIT 2-6;
LINEAR APPROXIMATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF 1983
AVERAGE COST OF U.S. URANIUM PRODUCTION
55
0 9 Wt32013J0J54045505»f0tf57079*0«590«5ioo
Percent of Present Production Level
Source: DOE 84b
12
-------
EXHIBIT 2-7:
COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
UNDERGROUND MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-THICKNESS RATIO
OF 76 AND AN ORE GRADE OF 0.25 PERCENT U3°8
(in dollars per short ton of ore, in 1977 dollars)
Capacity (Short Tons of Ore Per Day)
Capital Costs
Mine primary development
Mine plant and equipment
Mill construction
Subtotal
Operating Costs
Mining
Hauling
Milling
Subtotal
Total
500
7.99
1.73
3.98
13.70
31.70
1.73
10.16
43.59
57.29
1,000
6.26
1.35
3.24
10.85
27.17
1.73
7.87
36.77
47.62
2,000
5.30
1.06
2.66
9.02
24.90
1.73
6.56
33.19
42.21
3,000
5.01
0.96
2.32
8.29
23.77
1.73
5.90
31.40
39.69
5,000
4.53
0.87
1.99
7.39
22.87
1.73
5.65
30.25
37.64
Source: Zi 79
13
-------
EXHIBIT 2-8:
COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
OPEN-PIT MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-THICKNESS RATIO
OF 24 AND AN ORE GRADE OF 0.20 PERCENT U3°8
(in dollars per short ton of ore, in 1977 dollars)
Capacity (Short Tons of Ore Per Day)
Capital Costs
Mine primary development
Mine plant and equipment
Mill construction
Subtotal
Operating Costs
Mining
Hauling
Milling
Subtotal
Total
500
10.77
0.35
3.98
15.10
5.43
1.41
9.92
16.76
31.86
1,000
9.54
.35
3.24
13.13
5.43
1.41
7.62
14.46
27.59
2,000
9.18
0.35
2.66
12.19
5.43
1.41
6.31
13.15
25.34
3,000
9.09
0.35
2.32
11.76
5.43
1.41
5.65
12.49
24.25
5,000
8.92
0.35
1.99
11.26
5.43
1.41
5.41
12.25
23.51
Source: Zi 79
14
-------
EXHIBIT 2-9;
REASONABLY ASSURED RESOURCES
(1,000 Tons of Uranium)
Data available January 1, 1983
Countries
Algeria6'6
Argentina
Australia
Austria6
Brazil8
Cameroon, Republic of
Canada
Central African Republic8'
Chilea'g
Denmark
Egypt
Finland8
France
Gabon
Germany, Federal Republic of
Greece
India
Italy
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Mexico
Namibia
Niger'0
Peru8
Portugal ,
Somalia '
South Africa
Spain .
Sweden
Turkey8
United States of America
Zaire6'0
TOTAL (rounded)
Less than
26
18.8
314
0
163.3
0
176
18
0
0
0
0
56.2
18.7
0.9
0.4
31.7
2.9
7.7
0
2.9
119
160
0.5
6.7
0
191
15.7
2
2.5
131.3
1.8
1,468
Cost Range
$36/lb $36-$59Ab
4.5
22
0.3
—
0
9
—
2.3
27
0
3.4
11.3
4.7
4.2
0
10.9
—
—
10
16
—
1.5
6.6
122
4.5
37
2.1
275.9
575
Total
26
23.3
336
0.3
163.3
0
185
18
2.3
27
0
3.4
67.5
23.3
5.1
0.4
42.6
2.9
7.7
10
2.9
135
160
0.5
8.2
6.6
313
20.2
39
4.6
407.2
1.8
2,043
aUranium contained in-situ.
Uranium contained in mineable ore.
°OECD (NEA)/IAEA: "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," Paris, 1977.
dOECD(NEA)/IAEA: "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," Paris, 1979.
eOECD(NEA)/IAEA: "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," Paris, 1982.
^Includes 35,000 tons uranium in the Ranstad deposit from which no uranium production
is allowed due to a veto by local authorities for environmental reasons.
g Assigned to cost category by OECD.
Source: OEcn 83
15
-------
has lower grade ore than many other large producing countries, it suffers a disadvan-
tage in costs (JFA 85). A dramatic example of this competitive disadvantage is
provided by comparing the quality of Canadian and U.S. ore. According to a 1984
article in Chemical Week, a ton of Canadian ore yields 40 to 60 pounds of U3Og, while a
ton of U.S. ore yields only four pounds (CW 84).
2.2 DEMAND
Domestic uranium mill operators have two markets for their production: the U.S.
nuclear power industry and exports. The nuclear power industry is by far the more
important of the two. In 1984, 1,100 tons of UgOg were exported, and current
commitments for exports total only 3,850 tons for 1985-2000 (DOE 85a). Military uses,
once the only source of demand for uranium, have been supplied solely by government
stockpiles since 1970 (DOE 84a).
Demand for domestic uranium has declined for the past five years. In 1979, utilities
delivered 15,450 tons of domestic uranium oxide to DOE for enrichment, 42 percent
more than 1983 deliveries. Exports too have declined substantially. In 1979, exports
amounted to 3,100 tons, almost three times as much as in 1984. A number of negative
forces have combined to cause the current depressed state of the industry. Perhaps
most importantly, the growth in electricity generated by nuclear plants and the
expansion of nuclear power capacity has been much slower than had been forecasted in
the mid 1970's due in part to numerous construction delays and cancellations. Second,
as discussed in Section 2.1, imports have begun to play a major role in the U.S. uranium
market. The import restrictions in effect from 1964 to 1977 have undergone a phased
withdrawal, and as of 1985 there are no import limitations. The result has been a
steady increase in uranium imports from nations possessing high grade (and thus low
cost) uranium deposits. Expectations are that a growiner portion of utility requirements
will be supplied by foreign-origin uranium during the second half of this decade (JFA
85).
A third factor contributing to the current downturn in the uranium industry, also
discussed in Section 2.1, is the large inventories being held by both producers and
utilities. Utilities, anticipating a growing need for uranium, entered into long-term
contracts to purchase large amounts of domestically produced uranium. As actual
needs fell short of expected needs due to nuclear power plant construction delays and
cancellations, large inventories began to accumulate. These inventory supplies,
16
-------
currently estimated to cover four to five years of utility requirements, adversely affect
suppliers in two ways. They may extend the downturn in uranium demand for a number
of years by decreasing utility needs to enter new contracts. Also, high interest rates
have increased inventory holding costs, leading some utilities to contribute to current
excess supply by offering inventory stocks for sale on the spot market (JFA 85a).
The focus of the remainder of this section is on total U.S. demand for uranium, not just
on demand for domestic production or production from conventional mills. The first
subsection details historical uses of uranium. The concluding subsection provides a
brief description of uranium prices and pricing mechanisms.
2.2.1 Uranium Uses
Military Applications
In the early 1950's, the U.S. government's need for uranium for defense uses far
exceeded the world's production capability. A federally funded production incentives
program was then instituted. The incentives program was so effective that the
government phased it out in the 1960's and terminated its purchase program in 1970.
The government still has sufficient stockpiles to meet military requirements well into
the future.
Though Federal consumption data are not available to the public, apparent consumption
can be estimated from analysis of changes in stockpiles. Stocks held by the Department
of Energy between 1982 and 1984 were as follows:
Thousand Short Tons of U3Og Equivalent
Natural Uranium
20.30
20.50
20.50
Enriched Uranium
57.45
58.10
59.20
Total Uranium
77.75
78.60
79.20
January 1, 1984
January 1, 1983
January 1, 1982
Inventory drawdown equaled 600 short tons in 1982, and 850 short tons in 1983. As the
government is not believed either to buy or sell uranium currently, inventory drawdown
is assumed equal to government consumption (DOE 84a).
17
-------
Nuclear Power Plants
Since 1971, utilities, which use uranium as fuel for nuclear power plants, have been
virtually the only source of demand for current uranium production. Commercial
generation of nuclear powered electricity began in 1957 with the operation of the first
central station reactor at Shippingport, Pennsylvania. At the end of 1983, 80 nuclear
reactors were licensed to operate in the United States, totalling 64.4 gigawatts of
generating capacity (DOE 84c)
Demand for uranium by utilities may be directly linked to the fuel requirements of
currently operating or planned nuclear power plants. The status of U.S. nuclear power
plants as of June 30, 1985 is shown in Exhibit 2-10. Because of the long lead times
associated with the ordering, construction and permitting of nuclear power plants it is
extremely unlikely that any additional orders for new nuclear plants will result in
operable capacity before 1996 (DOE 85c).
Historical consumption data for utilities are not available. The closest approximation is
statistics on deliveries by utilities of uranium to DOE enrichment plants. Deliveries for
1977 to 1984 are listed in Exhibit 2-11.
Exports
Exports of uranium by producers have declined in every year since 1979. In 1984, at
1,100 tons of UgOg, they were at their lowest level since 1976. Current commitments
for exports total only 4,400 tons for 1985-2000 (DOE 85b). Exports for the years
1967-1984 are shown in Exhibit 2-12.
2.2.2 Pricing
Two basic types of pricing arrangements dominate the procurement of
uranium: contract pricing and market pricing. In procurements with contract pricing,
prices and their escalation factors, if any, are determined when the contract is signed.
In procurements with market pricing, the price is commonly determined just before
delivery and is based on the market price prevailing at that time. Some market price
contracts contain a floor price, set at the time the contracts is signed, that serves as a
minimum on the eventual settled price. Pricing arrangements that cannot be classified
18
-------
EXHIBIT 2-10;
STATUS OF U.S. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
AS OF JUNE 30, 1985
Status
Operable
Totar
In Construction Pipeline
Canceled, With Extension of Construction
Permit Requested
Total
Total
Number
of
Reactors
86
5
91
4
26
7
1
38
2
131
Net Design
Capacity
(GWe)
71. la
6.0
77.0
4.1
29.7
7.3
1.1
42.2
2.2
121.4
alncludes Three Mile Island 1 (819 MWe), which has an operating license but remained in
an extended shutdown mode at publication time. Three Mile Island 2, Dresden 1, and
Humboldt Bay are not included.
Total capacity may not equal sum of components, due to independent rounding.
Source: DOE 85c
19
-------
EXHIBIT 2-11:
DELIVERIES OF URANIUM TO DOE ENRICHMENT PLANTS
BY DOMESTIC UTILITIES
Year
1977 ....
1978 ....
1979 ....
1980 ....
1981 ....
1982 ....
1983 ....
1984 ....
j
(
U.S.
Origin
. . . . 14,250
. . . . 11,950
. . . . 15,450
. . . . 11,150
. . . . 10,050
. . . . 13,550
. . . . 10,850
. . . . 8,400
Amount Delivered
iShort Tons U3Og)
Foreign
Origin
700
750
1,600
1,200
1,150
3,000
2,200
5,750
Total
14,950
12,700
17,050
12,350
11,200
16,550
13,050
14 150
Sources: DOE 84a, DOE 85b
20
-------
EXHIBIT 2-12;
EXPORTS OF URANIUM
a
(Thousand Short Tons of U3Og)
Historical Exports
Year
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Total
Exports
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
3.10
1.65
1.10
Producer
Exports
0.7
0.8
0.5
2.1
0.2
0.1
0.6
1.5
0.5
0.6
2.0
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.2
2.2
N.A.
N.A.
aTotal exports include exports by utilities, producers and other suppliers (reactor
manufacturers and fuel fabricators). Data for exports by utilities and other suppliers
were not collected prior to 1982.
N.A. = Not Available.
Sources:
DOE 84a, DOE 85a
21
-------
as either market or contract pricing are grouped in a third category. This "other"
category refers primarily to supply arrangements wherein the buyer has direct control
of a uranium property. Among 1983 deliveries of uranium, 41 percent used contract
pricing, 55 percent used market pricing, and four percent used "other" pricing
arrangements (DOE 84a).
The concept of market pricing is probably the most complex of the three types. While
it is common to refer to a "market" or "spot" price for uranium, there is actually no
centralized spot or futures market. Contracts are negotiated either between a
producer and a utility, through a middleman such as a nuclear power plant manu-
facturer, or through a broker. The price commonly referred to as the "spot price" for
uranium is a price published by the Nuclear Exchange Corporation (NUEXCO), the
principal uranium broker. This price, which NUEXCO calls the uranium "exchange
value" is a monthly estimate of the price at which transactions for immediate delivery
could have been concluded as of the last day of the month (DOE 83).
Historical Prices and Pricing Mechanisms
Prior to 1968, prices were largely determined by the Atomic Energy Commission. In
the early years of the commercial uranium market, 1968 through 1973, the price of
uranium declined and remained low despite conditions of excess long term demand.
Beginning in 1973 the price of uranium jumped due to immediate industry requirements,
a surge in long term contracting due in part to changes in procedures for enrichment
service contracts, and other factors.
At the same time, the terms under which long-term contracts were priced began to
change. Until 1973 contracting was typically under fixed price contracts with inflation
provisions. However, in 1973 producers resisted signing fixed price contracts because,
due to production cost increases, they were losing money on previous fixed price
contracts and because they anticipated price rises in the future. In 1974, when uranium
became a seller's market, market price contracts became increasingly popular. These
contracts were written to guarantee the producer a base rate-of-return on investment.
In a short time, market price contracts became the norm.
In 1979-1980, the sellers' market for uranium ended and the uranium market witnessed a
sharp decline in prices due to postponements and cancellations of nuclear reactors, the
22
-------
build-up of uranium inventories at utilities, and growing competition from low-priced
imported uranium. A sharp decline in the nominal price of uranium began in 1980,
dropping from over $40 per pound of UoOg at the end of 1979 to $23.50 per pound by
August 1981. In real terms (adjusted for inflation) the price had actually begun
dropping in 1976. The price in August 1981 in constant dollars was half of what it had
been in 1976. The price has continued to drop slowly from 1980 through 1984 (DOE 83).
Historical average contract prices and floor prices of market price contracts are
provided in Exhibit 2-13. Historical NUEXCO exchange values, or "spot prices" are
listed in Exhibit 2-14.
Prices of Foreign-Origin Uranium
Prices of imported uranium are substantially lower than domestic prices. The average
price paid for 1983 deliveries of imported uranium was $26.16 per pound of UgOg,
approximately one-third less than the amount paid for domestic-origin uranium (DOE
84a). Exhibit 2-15 shows the weighted average price paid by domestic customers for
1981 to 1983 deliveries of foreign-origin uranium and projected prices for 1984
deliveries.
2.3 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE
The number of firms participating in the domestic uranium milling industry has declined
in recent years. In 1977, there were 26 companies that owned active uranium mills. In
1983, the number had fallen to 11, and by June 1985, there were only 2 (DOE 84b; PEI
85a). The contraction of the industry can also be seen in trends in employment and
capital expenditures (Exhibit 2-16). Capital expenditures in 1984 were only $4 million,
compared to $287 miUion in 1979 (1984 doUars) (DOE 85a; DOE 84a). Employment in
1984 was a low 987 person-years, compared to 3236 person-years in 1979 (DOE 85b;
DOE 80).
2.3.1 Mill Capacity and Output
Mining and milling production data for individual companies are collected by DOE but
are not available to the public. However, some aggregate data are published. During
1984, the top 4 firms accounted for 55 percent of mill output, and the top 8 for 87
percent (DOE 85a). Mill capacities by firm and mill are listed in Exhibit 2-17.
23
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EXHIBIT 2-13:
AVERAGE CONTRACT PRICES AND FLOOR PRICES
OF MARKET
BY YEAR OF
PRICE CONTRACTS
CONTRACT SIGNING
(January 1984 Dollars Per Pound of U3Og)
Year Of
Signing
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Average
Contract
Price
41.72
63.33
50.30
43.70
34.81
40.74
22.36
28.36
29.56
Average
Floor
Price
43.10
60.68
55.39
51.22
43.25
47.25
23.84
NR
26.00
Combined Average
Contract and
Floor Pricea
42.47
61.01
53.76
45.56
35.18
43.11
22.73
28.36
29.03
a
Prices are weighted averages.
NR = None reported.
Source: DOE 84a
24
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EXHIBIT 2-14;
HISTORICAL NUEXCO EXCHANGE VALUES
(Nominal Dollars Per Pound of U30g)
Nominal Dollars Per
Pound of UgOg
Year As of December 31
1968 5.50
1969 6.20
1970 6.15
1971 5.95
1972 5.95
1973 7.00
1974 15.00
1975 35.00
1976 41.00
1977 43.00
1978 43.25
1979 40.75
1980 27.00
1981 23.50
1982 20.25
Source: PNL 84
25
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EXHIBIT 2-15;
PRICES FOR FOREIGN-ORIGIN URANIUM
AS OF JANUARY 1, 1984
Quantity-Weighted Percentage
Average Price Per Amount Of Total
Pound of UoOg of UoOg Import Delivery
Year (Year-of-Delivery Dollars) (Thousand Short Tons) Commitments Sampled
1981 32.90 2.20 67
1982 31.05 2.00 53
1983 26.16 4.10 100
1984 27.39 3.25 70
Sources: DOE 84a, DOE 82
26
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EXHIBIT 2-16:
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, EMPLOYMENT, AND ACTIVE MILLS:
CONVENTIONAL URANIUM MILLING INDUSTRY
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Capital Expenditures
(million constant 1984 $)
281
307
68
12
3
4
Employment
(Person-Years)
3>236
3,251
2,367
1,956
1,518
987
Active Number of Mills
At Year-End
N/A
N/A
20
14
12
8
Production
(Short Tons)
16,877
18,903
15,998
10,447
7,760
4,813
N/A = not available
Sources: DOE 85a, DOE 85b, DOE 80
-------
EXHIBIT 2-17;
OPERATING STATUS AND CAPACITY OF LICENSED CONVENTIONAL
to
oo
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Washington
Wyoming
TOTAL
URANIUM
Facility
Canon City
Uravan
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater
Ambrosia
Grants
White Mesa
Lisbon
Moab
Shootaring Canyon
Ford
Sherwood
Sweetwater
Gas Hills
Shirley Basin
Bear Creek
Gas Hills
Split Rock
MILLS AS OF NOVEMBER
Owner
Cotter Corp.
UMETCO/Union Carbide
Sohio/Kennecott
United Nuclear
Anaconda
Kerr-McGee
Homestake
UMETCO/Union Carbode
Rio Algom
Atlas
Plateau Resources
Dawn Mining
Western Nuclear
Minerals Exploration
Pathfinder
Pathfinder
Rock Mt. Energy
UMETCO/Union Carbide
Western Nuclear
1985(a)
Operating
Status(b)
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Active^
Activev '
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby,*
Active^'
Standby
Standby
Standby
3 Active
17 Standby
Capacity
(tons/day)(c)
1200
1300
1650
4000
6000
7000
3400
2000
750
1400
800
600
2000
3000
2500
1800
2000
1400
1700
(a)
Data obtained from conversations with agreement states, NRC representatives, and mill operators. Does not include mills
licensed but not constructed.
Active mills are currently processing ore and producing yellowcake. Standby mills are not currently processing but are
capable of restarting.
(c)
Processing capacity in tons of ore per day.
^Current contract will allow operating for 12-18 months.
^e'Likely to go to standby status soon.
Source: PEI 85.
-------
A wide variety of companies are represented within the uranium industry. In the
industry's early years, holdings were dominated by independent mining and exploration
companies. Since then, mergers, acquisitions, and the entry of conglomerates have
considerably altered industry structure. During the 1970's the oil embargo and
optimistic forecasts of future nuclear power capacity made entry into the uranium
market attractive to oil companies and utilities. Of the 17 companies that owned mills
in 1984, ten were subsidiaries of oil companies, utilities, or large chemical companies;
one was a subsidiary of a transportation company; and six were mining corporations.
For the most part, uranium activities are a small part of the owners' business. This
influences the long-term outlook for the stability of the industry since large, diversified
companies are likely to have the financial resources to weather the current downturn in
the market if they expect a return to profitability.
2.3.2 Employment Analysis
Department of Energy estimates of employment in the uranium milling industry in 1984
are listed in Exhibit 2-18. Additional detail at the State level was obtained through
discussions with staff of the departments of mining or natural resources in the States
with uranium mills. This is provided in the following paragraphs.
Historically, New Mexico and Wyoming have been the nation's leading producers of
uranium and have jointly been responsible for an estimated 70 to 75 percent of total
uranium concentrate production. Following the peak production period of 1981 and
1982, and since the onset of the production decline in the latter part of 1982, it is
estimated that approximately 7000 jobs have been lost in New Mexico as production fell
from 253 million tons in 1982 to 36 miUion in 1984 (NM 85).1
Exhibit 2-19 contains a description of uranium milling activity in the State of Wyoming.
It reveals that there were seven uranium mine-mill complexes and one uranium mill in
1980 collectively employing 2451 people. In 1981, there were seven mills and mine-mill
complexes employing 1361 people. In 1984, data were available for five mine-mill
Employment and output estimates provided by State sources may not agree with those
provided by the U.S. Department of Energy and presented elsewhere in this report, due
to differences in data collection procedures.
29
-------
EXHIBIT 2-18;
EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.S URANIUM MILLING INDUSTRY
BY STATE. 1984
State Person-Years Expended
Colorado 215
Wyoming 310
Arizona, New Mexico, 462
Texas, Utah, Washington
TOTAL 987
Source: DOE 85b
30
-------
EXHIBIT 2-19;
URANIUM MILLING ACTIVITY IN THE STATE OF WYOMING
Mane of
Operator
Bear Creek
Uranium Co.
Federal
American
Partners
Mame of Mine County and PedlOei
Location
Beer Creek Natrona IJurr.ee Uranium
Mine Mine and Mill
Complex
MlUng Fremont Uranium Mill
Plant - Engineering
and
Exploration
Mo. of Bmployeei Production (Tone)
1110 I'll 1IM 1110 1(11 1IM
158 til 110 IM.OOO «5,000 44I.4M
100 115 " 500 411,192
Mineral* Sweetwater
EjEploretion Uranium
Corporation Project
Bwertweler Open Pit Uranium
Mne end Mill
l»5,5«5 1,016,141
PatMlnoer Uick McMlne Fremont
Mlnei end McMill
Corporation
Pathfinder Shirley BaMn Carbon
Wnei Mine
Corporation
Petro- Petronlee Carbon
troriei tromca
Company Une end Mill
weetern Mcmtoeh Fremont
Hucleer Pit
toe.
Woitem BpBt Rock Fremont
Nuclear Mill
Qetty OU Petro Carbon
Company tronlo Mill
Total:
'Milled'
and
Mined
and
Hilled*
(torn)
Totali
Hox>f
Employee.
engaged
In 'mining
andmTJnr
Open Pit Urerdum 411 107 Tl MeMiU McMill McHill-
Mlne and Mill 1H.416 I1»,5IO tit, 174
McMlne - yellow
(31,113 cake
Open Pit Uranium 156 403 141 1,086 446,348 15,116
Mine, Mill and yellow
Maintenance oake
Stop
Open Pit Uranium 915 - 44 1, Til, IIS — 175,101
Mne and Mill yelkjw
oake
Open Pit Uranium 11 — 111,706 — —
Mine and Mill
Open Pit Uranium 136 147 11 566,102 106,511 0
Mnei end Mill
Uranium Mil — 69 — — 465,565
9,171,950 9, 110, (47 1,1U,(57
1451 1161 454
Percentage Change 1MO-M
Total:
•Mllle Wromlm State fcanector of Mlneei 1IM, INI aad 1M4
31
-------
complexes and one mill, and only four of these operations recorded any output.
Employment was down to 454 workers. Thus, from 1981 to 1984, the total number of
individuals employed at mills and mine-mill complexes declined by 81 percent and
production declined by approximately 6 percent (WY 80, 81, and 84).
In the State of Washington, before 1982 there were two mine-mill complexes: Midnight
mines (owned and operated by Dawn Mining Company) and the Sherwood Mine (owned by
Western Nuclear, a subsidiary of Phelps Dodge Corporation). In 1981, Dawn employed
50 workers, and in 1982 it employed 42. In 1981, Sherwood employed 45 workers, while
in 1982 it employed 14 miners plus 98 maintenance workers. Both mine-mill complexes
are currently inactive and unemployment (estimated at 40 percent from 1982 to 1983)
was estimated to be as high as 80 percent (WA 85).
In Colorado, there were 508 mineral industry operations in 1980, 100 of which were
engaged in the production of uranium. By 1985 however, there were only two mines or
mine/mill complexes: Centennial and Schwartzwalder. In 1980, the uranium industry
employed approximately 1594 individuals (Nugent 80), whereas it is estimated that the
two operations now employ about 200 people (Co 85).
In Texas, there were until recently, three mills: the Conquista Project (Conoco), Ray
Point (Exxon) and the Panna Maria complex (Chevron). The Conquista complex, it is
estimated, employed over 500 people during its peak period from 1979 to 1980, and the
Panna Maria complex about 250 people during its peak period from 1981 to 1983. The
Conquista Project and Ray Point have now been decommissioned. The Panna Maria
complex maintains a skeleton staff of seven to eight people (TX 85).
2.3.3 Community Impact Analysis
The impact of trends in uranium milling on small communities dependent on uranium
milling facilities tends to vary depending on the location of the mines; the importance
of uranium mining and milling to the state; and the nature of the workforce. Texas and
Washington are on opposite sides of the dependency spectrum, and therefore serve as
interesting case studies.
In the state of Washington, the uranium facilities are located primarily in the Spokane
Indian Reservation. Mining soon became the main economic activity as the mining
companies were under contractual obligation to draw 51 percent of their labor force
32
-------
from the Incfian community. When the two Washington mine-mill complexes, Midnight
Mines and Sherwood Mines, closed in 1983-1984, the unemployment rate rose to about
80 percent. This is perhaps partly attributable to the absence of any other mining
activity on the reservation which might have absorbed some of the displaced workers.
This high unemployment rate also suggests limited mobilitv on the part of miners and
workers. Thus, in the case of Washington it would seem that the employment effects
were concentrated, and felt largely by the Indian community which served as the
principal source of labor for uranium mining and milling within the state (WA 85).
In Texas, in contrast, the community impacts of the uranium industry are less
significant. Most uranium industry employees were originally farmers and ranchers,
maintaining and upgrading their properties during the lifetime of their mining careers.
Moreover, they were mostly a commuting workforce so there was no residual pool of
unemployed persons in the vicinity of the mines once the decline in employment took
place in the 1980's. There were no uranium mining communities as such in the State of
Texas which were dependent on the mining and production of uranium for their
subsistence. Moreover, many workers were absorbed by the booming petroleum and
lignite industries (TX 85).
In the case of both Colorado and Utah, the ability to absorb unemployed uranium
workers is limited. In Colorado this has been due to the depressed state of the mining
industry in general within the state (CO 85). In New Mexico, where uranium mining and
milling are considered an important economic activity, there were areas of concen-
trated impact - such as Gallup, the Laguna Pueblo area and the Navajo Indian
Reservation. The wide scale reduction in employment observed in recent years, the
reduction in sales and sales tax revenues, the loss of severance payments, a significant
amount of out-migration to Nevada and several other states, and a concomitant
reduction in income tax revenue have combined to make the impact significant and
state-wide as opposed to community-specific (NM 85).
2.3.4 Financial Analysis
Selected financial data for the domestic uranium industrv for 1980 to 1984 are shown in
Exhibit 2-20. The data cover a subset of firms (the same firms for all years) that
represent over 80 percent of the assets in the industry in each year. The firms included
are those for which uranium operations could be separated from other aspects of the
organization's business, and for which an acceptable level of consistency in financial
33
-------
EXHIBIT 2-20;
FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM INDUSTRY, 1980-1984 — (Continued)
(Million Dollars)
oa
1980 1981 1982
Income Statement
Operating Revenues 999.3 1,067.5 888.9
Operating Income (Loss) 4.5 62.1 (43.5)
Net Income (Loss) (11.0) 40.8 (15.9)
Source and Use of Funds Statement
Net Income (Loss) (11.0) 40.8 (15.9)
Depreciation, Depletion,
and Amortization 138.2 170.8 225.3
Deferred Taxes 38.3 22.7 (22.6)
Debt and Equity 275.0 296.4 352.8
Other Sources 263.3 98.1 118.6
Total Sources 703.6 628.8 658.2
Capital Expenditures (Property,
Plant, and Equipment) 464.1 297.3 122.2
Debt Repayment 28.4 167.9 93.1
Other Uses 155.9 101.7 354.2
Total Uses 648.4 566.9 569.5
Change in Working Capital 55.4 61.9 88.7
Balance Sheet
Current Assets (Less Inventory). ... 249.2 220.9 253.2
Inventory 255.5 331.0 381.4
Net PP&E 2,065.0 2,293.7 2,106.1
Other Noncurrent Assets 350.4 263.4 431.8
Total Assets 2,920.1 3,109.0 3,172.5
Current Liabilities 246.0 221.8 193.4
Deferred Liabilities 1,378.1 1,542.2 1,441.4
Total Liabilities 1,624.1 1,764.0 1,634.8
Equity 1,296.0 1,345.0 1,537.7
Total Liabilities and Equity 2,920.1 3,109.0 3,172.5
1983
767.
73.
37.8
152.5
1.5
21.4
174.2
387.4
61.5
53.4
234.7
349.6
37.8
,5
7
261.
292.
1,546.9
553.8
2,654.9
147.5
1,544.6
1,692.1
962.8
2,654.9
1984
525.8
(10.0)
(205.5)
37.8 (205.5)
97.4
(65.6)
16.5
441.1
283.9
29.1
72.5
109.2
210.8
73.1
393.2
356.6
1,351.0
351.7
2,452.5
304.9
1,321.4
1,626.3
826.2
2,452.5
-------
EXHIBIT 2-20;
FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM INDUSTRY, 1980-1984
(Million Dollars) — (Continued)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
Ratios (percent)
Rates of Return
Net Income to Total Asstes -0.4 1.3 -0.5 1.4 -8.4
Net Income to Total Equity -0.8 3.0 -1.0 3.9 -24.9
Net Income to
Net Investment in Place -0.5 1.8 -0.8 2.4 -15.2
Fund Flow Measures
Additions to PP&E to
Total Sources of Funds 65.9 47.3 18.6 15.9 10.3
Leverage Measures
Deferred Liabilities to
Total Equity 106.3 114.7 93.7 160.4 159.9
Deferred Liabilities to
Total Assets 47.2 49.6 45.4 58.2 53.9
Liquidity Measures
Current Ratio 2.1 2.5 3.3 3.8 2.5
Liquidity Ratio 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.3
Source: DOE 85a
-------
reporting practices was available for all years. Financial data on the milling industry
alone are not available.
As shown in the exhibit, net income accruing to the uranium industry was positive in
only two years, 1981 and 1983. The returns on assets (net income divided by total
assets) in these years were 1.3 and 1.4 percent respectively, and aggregate net earnings
totalled $78.6 million. In 1980, 1982 and 1984, the returns on assets were -0.4, -0.5,
and -8.4 percent, and aggregate net losses reached $232.4 million. The loss in 1984
alone was $205.5 million on revenues of $525.8 million. Thus, the aggregate loss for the
five years was $153.8 million. Compared to the rest of the economy, the uranium
industry's situation appears even worse: for the period 1980-1984, the annual growth in
after-tax corporate profits for the total domestic economy averaged 19.3 percent.
The industry's financial picture in 1984 stemmed largely from the need for restructuring
of its asset base in response to the continuing decline in the market for uranium. Many
uranium properties and facilities were written down in 1984 to reflect the present value
of the revenues from contracted future deliveries of uranium. During 1984, an amount
well in excess of $200 million was charged against income in the writedown process.
The adjustment will permit most to be more competitive in the future (DOE 85a).
Company-specific information on uranium production, revenues, profits, and plans is
provided in the following paragraphs.
Kerr-McGee Corporation
Kerr-McGee has been a major domestic uranium producer since it first entered the
industry in 1952. In October of 1983, the company split its uranium operations into two
divisions, Quivira Mining Company and Sequoyah Fuels Corporation. Quivira became
the uranium mining and milling subsidiary, operating two mining complexes and
processing the ore at the nation's largest (7000 ton per day) mill, in Grants, New
Mexico. Sequoyah Fuels operates a facility in Oklahoma that is one of only two plants
in the U.S. that converts tLOg into uranium hexafluoride (UFfi) and also produces
uranium concentrate from solution mining in Wyoming.
In January 1985, Kerr-McGee placed its mines and mill on standby. The uranium
operations, which have been for sale for some time, have been written down in value in
36
-------
Kerr-McGee's financial statements, by $42 milfion after taxes, to the present value of
existing contracts. Contractual commitments will be met through inventory and mine-
water recovery techniques (AR 84a, AR 83a). Statistics on Kerr-McGee's uranium
operations are provided in Exhibit 2-21.
Homestake Mining Company
Homestake Mining Company owns two conventional uranium mines and a 3400 ton per
day mill in Grants, New Mexico. During 1984, production of uranium was reduced to
the minimum level at which satisfactory unit costs could be maintained. Mine
production was confined to one mine operating on a five-day-week schedule for ten
months of the year. Uranium concentrate was also recovered from solution mining and
ion-exchange. In 1984, uranium accounted for 18 percent of the company's revenues,
and a disproportionate 31 percent of operating earnings, for a return on operations of 34
percent. The high return for the vear is attributed to existing contracts which provide
for sale prices above current spot prices and production costs. In 1982 and 1983, in
comparison, the returns on uranium operations were 24 and 19 percent, respectively.
Operating returns for all Homestake operations during 1982-1984 were 23, 26 and 20
percent, respectively.
During 1985, the company suspended its conventional mining and milEn^ operations and
expanded its uranium leaching facilities. Uranium earnings are expected to continue to
decline in the next two years with the expiration of existing sales contracts (AR 84b).
Financial information for Homestake's uranium operations is presented in Exhibit 2-22.
Rio Algom
Rio Algom is a Canadian corporation engaged in the mining of a wide variety of
materials, including copper, steel, and uranium. In 1983, uranium operations accounted
for 38 percent of corporate revenue, but most (94 percent) was from Canadian
production. In the United States, the company owns two uranium mines and a 750 ton
per day mill in La Sal, Utah.
In 1983, the company produced 167 tons of uranium oxide from its Utah mines, and
delivered 150 tons under a new contract secured for the years 1983-1986. The mines
operated at approximately 50 percent of capacity in 1983, while the mill operated at
37
-------
EXHIBIT 2-21(a):
KERR-MCGEE CORPORATION
URANIUM OPERATIONS:
FINANCIAL DATA, 1982-1984
1
(million $)
1984
Sales
Operating Income
Assets
Depreciation, Depletion
Capital Expenditures
$
($
$
$
$
90
67)
182
14
1
1983
$
($
$
$
$
115
6)
288
15
4
$
$
$
$
$
1982
153
20
313
16
7
EXHIBIT 2-21(b);
KERR-MCGEE CORPORATION
URANIUM OPERATIONS;
RESERVES, PRODUCTION, PRICES, AND DELIVERIES, 1980-19841
Reserves (demonstrated, 1000 tons)
Ore Milled (1000 tons)
Production (U3Og, 1000 pounds)
Average Market Price/lb of U3Og
UgOg Delivered (1000 pounds)
1984
98,236
531
1,890
$30. 282
1,228
1983
100,589
700
2,330
$ 27.29
2,708
1982
102,551
N/A
4,181
$ 28.12
3,942
1981
105,894
N/A
5,042
$ 28.12
5,354
1980
114,116
N/A
5,627
, $• 28.61
6,751
Includes both data for both Quivira Mining Company and Sequoyah Fuels Corporation.
2
Current year sales prices are not representative since they are primarily related to prior year
fixed price contracts.
N/A = not available
Sources: AR 84a, AR 83a
38
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EXHIBIT 2-22;
HOMESTAKE MINING COMPANY URANIUM OPERATIONS
1982-1984
Revenues (millions)
Operating Income (millions)
Sales of UgOg (million pounds)
Sales Price Per Pound of U3Og
Depreciation, Depletion, and
Amortization (millions)
Additions to Property, Plant, and
Equipment (millions)
Identifiable Assets (millions)
1984
$ 57.9
$ 19.6
1.130
$ 51.21
$ 4.4
$ .7
$ 66.9
1983
$ 58.6
$ 11.4
1.130
$ 49.76
$ 14.3
$ 0.0
$ 73.0
1982
$ 63.7
$ 15.6
N/A
$ 46.15
$ 20.0
$ 1.0
$ 80.8
Prices based on long-term contracts which expire in 1986 and 1987.
N/A = not available.
Source: AR 84b
39
-------
capacity due to a significant amount of toll milling (AR 83b). The company closed one
mine in early 1985, and may soon place its mill on standby (PEI 85a).
Selected financial statistics on Rio Algom uranium operations are presented in Exhibit
2-23.
Plateau Resources Limited
Plateau Resources, a wholly owned subsidiary of Consumers Power Co., was organized
in 1976 to acquire, explore, and develop properties for the mining, milling, and sale of
uranium. All operations were suspended in 1984 because of depressed demand and
assets were written down by about $46 million after taxes, to an estimated net
realizable value of approximately $55 million. There is no assurance that the amount
will ever be realized however. The company's 800 ton per day mill at Ticaboo, Utah,
which was constructed in 1980 and 1981, has never been active (AR 84c).
Western Nuclear
Western Nuclear, a subsidiary of Phelps Dodge Corporation, owns two mine and mill
complexes, one in Wyoming and one in Washington. The capacities of its mills are 1700
and 2000 tons per day, respectively. The Wyoming mill has been on standby since the
early 1980's, and decommissioning is anticipated. The Washington complex operated
intermittently from 1981 through 1984. In late 1984, Phelps Dodge wrote off its entire
"Energy" operation, of which Western Nuclear is a major part. While the company
believes that nuclear power will ultimately have an important role in satisfying the
nation's energy needs, Phelps Dodge has suffered other financial losses that made it
necessary to dispose of operations that have uncertain prospects for near-term
profitability. Contracts to deliver 400 tons of uranium oxide in 1984 and 422 tons in
1985 were expected to be fulfilled primarily with purchases from the spot market
instead of new production. Exhibit 2-24 provides data on Phelps Dodge's U3Og
production and ore reserves, plus financial information on Phelps Dodge's "Energy"
operations, which include a gas and oil subsidiary in addition to uranium operations (AR
83c, AR 84d).
"Toll milling" is the processing of ore from another company's mines on a contract
basis.
40
-------
EXHIBIT 2-23;
RIO ALGOM URANIUM OPERATIONS, 1981-1983
Million $
Revenues
Operating Income
Capital Expenditures
Assets
Depreciation, Amortization
TT O
Tons U3U8
Total Production
Canadian Production
U.S. Production
1983
297.6
76.1
87.8
752.9
29.9
3,400
3,233
167
1982
281.7
60.3
13.7
427.8
28.1
3,550
NA
NA
1981
281.9
69.2
17.3
372.1
30.7
3,900
NA
NA
Source: AR 83b
41
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EXHIBIT 2-24;
PHELPS DODGE ENERGY OPERATIONS, 198l-1984a
1984b 1983 1982 1981
Million $
Revenues na 25.4 34.8 89.5
Operating Income na (10.8) (17.3) 10.3
Capital Expenditures na 1.6 5.3 9.8
Assets na 156.5 154.2 168.8
Depreciation, Amortization na 5.3 3.4 7.7
Physical Quantities
U3Og Production (Tons) na 303 250 631
Ore Reserves (1000 Tons) na 15,700 15,400 15,400
na = not available
aPhelps-Dodge uranium operations are conducted through its subsidiary Western Nuclear.
Uranium operations are included in the "Energy" business segment in the annual reports.
Also in this segment is a gas and oil exploration subsidiary, but the annual report states
that the energy segment consists principally of uranium operations.
The company wrote off its entire investment in Energy operations in the fourth quarter
of 1984.
Sources: AR 83c, AR 84d.
42
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Rocky Mountain Enertry
Rocky Mountain Energy, a subsidiary of Union Pacific Corporation, owns a mine and
mill complex in Powder River Basin, Wyoming. In 1984, the company shipped 271 tons
of uranium oxide to Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric.
Because Union Pacific expects new opportunities for producers of U,Og, uranium
exploration operations have continued, primarily in an area of northern Arizona where
high grade deposits are known to exist (AR 84e). The 2000 ton per day mill was inactive
in 1985, however, and decommissioning is anticipated (PEI 85a).
Financial statistics for Union Pacific's mining operations, which include large coal and
soda ash activities in addition to uranium, are provided in Exhibit 2-25a. Information on
reserves and production is presented in Exhibit 2-25b.
Other Producers
The above companies were the only producers publishing detailed information on
uranium operations. Limited information pertaining to other mill operators obtained,
either through annual reports or industry sources, follows:
• The Cotter Corporation, a subsidiary of Commonwealth Edison Co., owns
three underground mines and a 1200 ton per day mill at Canon City,
Colorado. The mill and two of the mines have been on standby since
January 1985. As of December 31, 1984, Commonwealth Edison reported
assets of $212,135,000 in uranium related property, equipment, and
activities (AR 84f).
• Union Carbide owns several uranium mines and three uranium mills in
Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah. Maximum rated capacities of the mills are
1300, 1400, and 2000 tons per day. The company reported in its most
recent annual report that its uranium mines and mills operated below
capacity in 1984, although at higher rates than in 1983 (AR 84g). As of
September 1985, all three mills were on standby, but the largest mill, at
White Mesa, Utah, was reopened in October to meet a contract (PEI 85a).
• Kennecott, a subsidiary of Standard Oil of Ohio, owns a 1650 ton per day
mill at Cebolleta, New Mexico. The mill has been inactive since the early
1980's (DOE 85a).
43
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EXHIBIT 2-25(a):
UNION PACIFIC MINING OPERATIONS;
FINANCIAL INFORMATION, 1981-1984
Million $
Revenues
Operating Income
Capital Expenditures
Assets
Depreciation, Amortization
1984
168.0
63.0
1.0
288.0
5.0
1983
189.0
67.0
18.0
303.0
7.0
1982
165.4
48.2
11.0
322.8
8.6
1981
179.1
48.6
12.0
326.6
3.0
EXHIBIT 2-25(b);
UNION PACIFIC
URANIUM RESERVES AND PRODUCTION
(1000 pounds of UO)
Reserves
Undeveloped
Interest in joint venture
Leased Properties
Production
19841
1,553
2,897
648
233
1983
2,846
4,524
648
287
1982
2,846
5,698
943
395
1981
2,846
6,019
943
525
1980
2,852
5,506
626
360
1984 reserves were adjusted downward by 34 percent to reflect future market
prospects.
Sources: AR 84e, AR 83d
44
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United Nuclear Corporation, a subsidiary of UNC Resources, Inc., has
historically been a major producer of uranium. However, since 1983 all
the company's mines have been on standby due to depressed market
conditions, as has its 4000 ton per day mill at Gallup, New Mexico. The
company has been filling its contract commitments with uranium pur-
chased from outside sources. Plans for 1985 call for complete elimination
of uranium operations (AR 84h).
Anaconda, a subsidiary of Atlantic Richfield Co., owns a 6000 ton per day
uranium mill at Grants, New Mexico. The mill has been on standby since
1982 (DOE 85a).
Chevron Chemical Company, a subsidiary of Chevron Corporation, owns a
2600 ton per day mill at Hobson, Texas. The mill was active thru 1984 but
in 1985 began only grinding alkaline rock to neutralize its tailings pool
(PEI 85a). The company expects that, although prices are now depressed,
uranium will be profitable in the future. Plans are underway to test
commercial production of uranium at Mt. Taylor, New Mexico in 1985 (AR
84i).
Atlas Corporation owns four underground uranium mines and a 1400 ton
per day mill located in Moab, Utah. The mill operated at least part of the
year through 1984, but as of June 1985 was inactive (DOE 85a, JFA 85b).
Dawn Mining is a joint operation of Newmont Mining Corporation of New
York and Midnight Mining Company of Spokane, Washington. The
company owns a 600 ton per day miD near Ford, Washington. The mill has
been inactive since 1982 (DOE 85a, JFA 85b).
Pathfinder Mines owns five uranium mines and two uranium mills in
Wyoming. Both mills operated through 1984. As of October 1985, the
2500 ton per day mill at Gas Hills was on standby, but the 1800 ton per
day facility at Shirley Basin was active (PEI 85a, JFA 85b).
Minerals Exploration, a subsidiary of Union Oil, owns a 3000 ton per day
mill near Red Desert, Wyoming. The mill has been on standby since 1983
(DOE 85a, JFA 85b).
45
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REFERENCES
AR 84a-i Annual Reports for 1984 for Kerr-McGee Corporation, Homestake Mining
Company, Consumers Power Co., Phelps Dodge Corporation, Union
Pacific Corporation, Commonwealth Edison Co., Union Carbide, UNC
Resources, Inc., and Chevron Corporation.
AR 83a-c Annual Reports for 1983 for Kerr-McGee Corporation, Rio Algom Corpo-
ration, Phelps Dodge Corporation, and Union Pacific Corporation.
CO 85 Personal communication, Colorado Department of Natural Resources,
Division of Mines, December 1985.
CW 84 "For Uranium Producers, Far-Off Silver Linings," Chemical Week, April
11, 1984.
DOE 80 Department of Energy, Statistical Data of the Uranium Industry. GJO-
100 (80), 1980.
DOE 82 Department of Energy, Survey of United States Uranium Marketing
Activity. DOE/NE-001311, July 1982.
DOE 83 Department of Energy, World Uranium Supply and Demand; Impact of
Federal Policies. DOE/EIA-0387 (83), March 1983.
DOE 84a Department of Energy, Survey of United States Uranium Marketing
Activity 1983. DOE/EIA-0403 (83), August 1984.
DOE 84b Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry;
1983 Viability Assessment. Pre-publication release, December 1984.
DOE 84c Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear Power 1984; Prospects for
the United States and the World. DOE/EIA-0438 (84), November 1984.
DOE 85a Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry;
1984 Viability Assessment. DOE/EIS-0477, September 1985.
46
-------
REFERENCES — (continued)
DOE 85b Department of Energy, Uranium Industry Annual 1984.
0478(84), October 1985.
DOE/EIA-
DOE 85c Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear Power; Prospects for the
United States and the World. DOE/EIA-0438 (85), September 1985.
JFA 85a Jack Faucett Associates, Economic Profile of the Uranium Mining
Industry. Prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, January
1985.
JFA 85b Jack Faucett Associates, communications with uranium mill operators and
parent companies, June-October 1985.
NM 85 Personal communication, Energy and Minerals Department, Mine
Inspection Bureau, State of New Mexico, December 1985.
Nugent 80 Nugent, J.W., "A Summary of Mineral Industry Activities in Colorado,
1980: Part E, Metal-Nonmental." Colorado Department of natural
Resources, Division of Mines.
OECD 83 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Uranium;
Resources, Production, and Demand. Paris, December 1983.
PEI 85a PEI Associates, oral communication, August-October 1985.
PNL 84 Battelle-Pacific Northwest Laboratories, U.S. Uranium Mining Industry;
Background Information on Economics and Emissions, PNL-5035, March
1984.
TX 85
Personal communication, Texas Railroad Commission, State of Texas,
December 1985.
WY 80,81, Wyoming State Inspector of Mines, 1980, 1981, and 1984 annual reports.
and 84
WA 85 Personal communication, Department of Natural Resources, Division of
Geology and Earth Resources, State of Washington, December 1985.
Zi 79
Zimmerman, Charles F., Uranium Resources on Federal Lands.
Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1979.
47
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CHAPTER 3
PROFILE OF TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
AT LICENSED URANIUM MILLS
This chapter provides a profile of the status of existing tailings impoundments. The list
includes only those impoundments at existing licensed uranium mills. Impoundments at
mills which are currently decommissioned are not included. The information presented
in this chapter was developed as part of the Background Information Document
prepared for this regulation by PEI Associates, Inc. Data was collected by contacting
mill owners, through site visits, and aerial photographs. Information is provided on
forty-three existing impoundments of which thirty-eight are actual tailings impound-
ments and five represent evaporation ponds.
Exhibit 3-1 provides summary information on the characteristics and areas of the
existing impoundments. The first column of the exhibit provides information on the
type of pile. A type one impoundment is one enclosed by dams and dikes (embankments)
constructed with sand tailings. A type two impoundment is one constructed using
earthen embankments. Type three impoundments are those constructed below grade.
Most existing tailings piles are of type two. The use of sand tailings for embankments
(type one) has been discouraged for some time and is no longer permitted. Only five
below-grade piles (at three sites) have been constructed as of this date.
The second column of Exhibit 3-1 provides the status of existing impoundments. Piles
of status "C" are those that are at capacity. Status "S" piles are on standby and status
"A" piles are currently active.
The areas of the existing impoundments are also given in Exhibit 3-1. Areas are given
in total and for ponded, wet and dry areas. The areas are important because only dry
areas are assumed to have substantial emissions of radon-222. The final column of
Exhibit 3-1 provides the average radium-226 content of the tailings. These data are
also used in the calculation of radon-222 emissions.
Exhibit 3-2 provides the emissions of radon-222 in kCi/year given current water
conditions. Current emissions are calculated using a flux factor of 1 pCi radon-222 per
2
m per second for 1 pCi radium-226 per gram concentration for dry tailings areas, and a
48
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EXHIBIT 3-1
SUMMARY OF URANIUM MILL TAILINGS PILES
Site/ Pile
a/
Type of
Pile
b/
Status
Sla (acres)
Total I Ponded 1 Wet 1 Dry
Average
Ra-226
(oCI/o)
Colorado
Cotter Oorp.
Primary
Secondary
Umetoo
P1te1&2
Pile 3
Sludge pile
Evap. pond
2
2
1
1
1
1
S
C
c
C
c
c
84
31
66
32
20
17
77
1
0
0
0
0
3
1
4
3
1
2
A
30
62
29
19
15
780
780
480
480
480
480
Mew Mexico
Sohlo
l-Bar
United Nuclear
Churchrock
Anaoondo
Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. ponds
Kerr-McQee
Qulvlra 1
Quwlra 2a
Qulvlre 2b
QuMre 2c
Evap. ponds
Horn estate
Horoestake 1
Homestake 2
Texas
Chevron
Panna Maria
Utah
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
S
S
S
C
C
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
C
128
148
239
47
24
162
269
105
28
30
372
205
44
28
7
0
0
0
97
14
10
0
0
268
63
4
55
76
0
0
0
17
64
35
3
4
10
33
0
45
65
239
47
24
48
191
60
25
26
95
109
36
500
290
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
385
385
124
68
20
36
196
Umetco
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
3
3
3
S
S
S
48
61
53
7
10
39
7
6
0
34
45
14
350
350
350
49
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EXHIBIT 3-1 (Cont.)
SUMMARY OF URANIUM Mill I/MUtteS PIUS
Site/ Pile
a/
Type of
Pile
b/
Status
Size (acres)
Total 1 Ponded 1 Wet 1 Dry
Average
Re-226
(DC1/Q)
RtoAlgom
Rlol
Rio 2
Atlas
Moat)
Plateau Res
Shooter Ing
Washington
Dawn Mining
Ford 1,2 ,3
Ford 4
Western Nuclear
Sherwood
Evap. pond
Wyoming
Pathfinder
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Western Nuclear
Split Rxlc
Umetoo
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leech pad
Evap ponds
Rocky Mountain Energy
Bear Creek
Pathfinder
Shirley Basin
Minerals Exp.
Sweetwater
2
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
A
A
S
S
C
S
S
S
S
C
S
S
S
C
S
S
S
S
A
S
44
32
147
7
95
28
94
16
124
54
22
89
156
151
25
22
20
121
261
37
4
12
54
2
0
17
18
16
2
2
19
73
94
0
2
0
20
45
179
30
2
5
4
1
0
0
7
0
3
12
2
4
19
0
9
0
0
23
22
0
38
15
90
1 1
95
11
70
0
119
40
2
11
43
151
14
22
0
53
60
7
560
560
540
280
850
850
200
200
420
420
420
420
430
310
310
310
310
420
540
280
TOTALS
3882 1282 457 2140
of impoundment: 1 «
-------
EXHIBIT 3-2;
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Texas
Utah
Washington
Wyoming
U.S. TOTAL
Company
Name
Cotter Corp
Umetco
Sohio
United Nuclear
Anaconda
Kerr-McGee
Homestake
Chevron
Umetco
Rio Algom
Atlas
Plateau Res.
Dawn Mining
Western Nuclear
Pathfinder
Western Nuclear
Umetco
Rock Mt. Energy
Pathfinder
Minerals Exp.
Pile
Name
Primary
Secondary
Pile 1&2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Quivira 1
Quivira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Panna Maria
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Rio 1
Rio 2
Moab
Shootaring
Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Split Rock
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Bear Creek
Shirley Basin
Sweetwater
kCi/y
0.4
3.0
3.8
1.8
1.2
0.9
2.9
2.4
18.9
3.7
1.9
3.8
15.1
4.7
2.0
2.1
7.5
5.4
1.8
0.9
1.5
2.0
0.6
2.7
1.1
6.2
0.0
10.3
0.0
1.8
0.0
6.4
2.1
0.1
0.6
2.4
6.0
0.6
0.9
0.0
2.8
4.1
0.2
137
51
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flux of zero for ponded and wet areas. Emissions at existing impoundments range from
zero to 18.9 kCi/year.
Exhibit 3-3 summarizes the estimated fatal cancers which will result from existing
tailings impoundments under current water-cover conditions. The estimated fatal
cancers are calculated using emissions estimates discussed above and the EPA-AIRDOS
computer code which uses a dispersion model and local site-specific population
_3
estimates. A factor of 1.2 x 10 fatal cancers per kCi released is used to generate
national health effects estimates. This estimate was derived from Table 3-1 of EPA
document number 520/1-83-008-1. Estimated committed total cancers from existing
tailings impoundments range from zero to 0.4 fatalities per year.
52
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EXHIBIT 3-3;
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL FATAL CANCERS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Texas
Utah
Washington
Wyoming
U.S. TOTAL
Company Pile
Name Name
Cotter Corp Primary
Secondary
Umetco Pile 1&2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
Sohio L-Bar
United Nuclear Churchrock
Anaconda Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Kerr-McGee Quivira 1
Quivira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Chevron Panna Maria
Umetco White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Rio Algom Rio 1
Rio 2
Atlas Moab
Plateau Res. Shootaring
Dawn Mining Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Western Nuclear Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Pathfinder Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Western Nuclear Split Rock
Umetco E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Rock Mt. Energy Bear Creek
Pathfinder Shirley Basin
Minerals Exp. Sweetwater
Committed
Cancers
Per Year
.01
.09
.07
.03
.02
.02
.08
.05
.4
.09
.04
.02
.3
.08
.04
.04
.1
.1
.05
.04
.02
.03
.008
.04
.02
.1
.0
.2
.0
.03
.0
.08
.03
.001
.007
.03
.07
.007
.01
.0
.04
.05
.002
2.45
53
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CHAPTER 4
FUTURE URANIUM MILLING INDUSTRY ACTIVITY
The initial chapters of this report have described how the uranium milling industry has
developed over the past two decades, and where it stands today. The presentation
chronicles the large swings in production levels and capital investment and discusses the
volatile nature of the industry. In order to measure the potential environmental
damage that would be caused by this industry in the absence of regulation and to
estimate the added cost of new regulations affecting this industry, it is necessary to
develop a profile of how the industry will develop in the future.
Any projection of future production levels and work practices for the uranium milling
industry are highly uncertain due to the political nature of the product, defense
implications of domestic uranium production, public sensitivity to nuclear related
activities, abundant low-cost foreign supplies of uranium and the general difficulty of
developing forecasts for a long enough term to capture the full dynamics of this
industry as well as the related mill waste disposal process. Despite these and other
uncertainties, the future profile of this industry must be constructed in order to
understand the potential impacts of various regulatory alternatives.
In this chapter a baseline or reference case for the future of this industry is developed.
In order to establish a long enough time frame to capture mill and tailings impoundment
life cycles, the reference case includes all final cover costs and life cycle emissions
from existing impoundments and from those future impoundments that begin operation
over the next 100 years. Assumptions are developed on the future activity of existing
mills, the design and operating characteristics of newly constructed mills, the expected
life cycle of all mills and tailings impoundments, the emissions and fatal lung cancers
from existing and future mill sites, and the cost of achieving final stabilization of these
impoundments.
The following sections present the elements of this baseline. In the subsequent analysis
of alternative regulatory activities (Chapter 6), each of the key assumptions made in
order to develop this baseline are tested to determine their importance in the analysis
of regulatory alternatives.
54
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4.1 PROJECTIONS OF DOMESTIC URANIUM PRODUCTION
In this section, two sets of projections are developed of total domestic uranium
production and of domestic production from conventional sources for use in subsequent
analyses. The projections are developed for the 101-year time period 1985-2085 and
consist of two components: near-term projections, through the year 2000; and long-
term scenarios, covering 2001-2085. The long-term components are referred to as
"scenarios" to emphasize the relatively conjectural nature of any set of projections for
such an extended timeframe. These scenarios presume that, during the next 100 years,
there is no technological breakthrough which permits either a cessation in the
construction of new uranium-fueled nuclear power plants or a vast reduction in the
uranium requirements for nuclear power (as would result from the development of a
breeder reactor).
The two sets of projections consist of one set of moderately low projections and one set
of moderately high projections. For the purposes of subsequent analyses, these two sets
will be referred to as the "reference" case and the "alternate" case, respectively,
though these names are not intended to imply any difference in the perceived
reasonableness of the two sets of projections.
4.1.1 Near-Term Projections
Total domestic production of U^Og and domestic production from conventional uranium
sources for 1980-1984 are shown in tabular form in Exhibit 4-1 along with reference-
case and alternate-case projections of these two categories of production for the period
1985-2000. The projections of total domestic production during 1990-2000 are taken
from recently published DOE low-demand and middle-demand projections for domestic
production under free market conditions (DOE 85c, pp. 147-148). Projected 1985
production shown in the exhibit has been adjusted from the DOE projections, developed
in early 1985, to reflect the latest available information on mill operations. This
Only two mills (Rio Algom and Pathfinder/Shirley Basin) have operated the entire year.
Three mills (Chevron, Cotter and Petrotomics) were operating at the beginning of 1985,
but closed during the first half of the year, while one mill (UMETCO/White Mesa)
reopened in October.
55
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EXHIBIT 4-1;
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF
, 1980-2000
(Short Tons)
Reference Case
Total Conventional
Alternate Case
Total Conventional
19&0
1981
1982
1983
198ft
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
21,852
19.237
13,ftlft
10,579
7.ftftl
ft. 350
ft. 350
ft. 300
ft. 300
ft. 350
ft. 350
ft. 350
4.6OO
ft. 950
5.250
5.ft50
5.750
6,050
6,300
6,ft50
6,550
18,600
15,100
10,119
7.ft7ft
ft. 618
1.800
1,800
1.850
1.850
1.900
1.900
1,900
2.10O
2.450
2.650
2.800
3.000
3.200
S.ftOO
3.500
3.600
21.852
19.237
IS.ftlft
10,579
7.ftftl
ft. 350
ft,ft50
ft. 550
ft. 750
ft. 950
5.150
5.300
5.350
5.050
5.100
5.750
6,650
7.550
8.150
8. ft50
8. 600
18.600
15.100
10.119
7,ft7ft
ft. 618
1.8OO
1.900
2.000
2,200
2.ftOO
2, 600
2.700
2.750
2,550
2.600
3.100
3.800
ft, 500
ft. 950
5.150
5.250
Sources: 19&0-198ft and total production in 1990-200O:
DOE 85c. pp. lft7-lftS;
1985-1989: see text.
56
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information indicates that mill output in 1985 is likely to be only about 1800 short tons
(down from 4618 tons in 1984). To be consistent with this sharp reduction in
conventional production, we estimate total domestic production in 1985 to be 4350 tons
(800 tons below the DOE figure developed earlier this year). Our reference-case
projections for 1986-1989 were obtained by assuming a slight dip in production to 4300
tons (in 1987 and 1988) followed by a return to 4350 tons, which is DOE's low-demand
projection for 1990. Our alternate-case projections for 1986-1989 were obtained by
assuming a gradual increase from the 1985 level to the 1990 value (5150 tons) obtained
from DOE's middle-demand projections.
Even before our downward adjustments for the 1985-1989 period, DOE's projections of
domestic uranium production were 30 to 50 percent lower than their previous
projections (DOE 84b, pp. 157-158). These substantial reductions in projected domestic
production are due both to a reduction in projected domestic U,0g requirements and to
an increase in the portion of these requirements expected to be met through imports.
The reduction in domestic requirements is due to eight reactor cancellations in 1984
and early 1985, an assumed gradual improvement in the enrichment tails assay (from
0.26 percent in 1985 to 0.20 percent in 2000), and an assumed gradual increase in fuel
burnup levels (to 30 percent above 1983 levels). As a result of imports and drawdowns
from currently high inventory levels, domestic production is projected to provide less
than 40 percent of annual U,Og requirements throughout the 1985-2000 period and less
than 30 percent during much of this period.
Annual domestic U3Og production peaked at 21,852 tons (after milling) in 1980 and
then declined by 66 percent, to 7441 tons in 1984. This decline is projected to continue,
to 4350 tons in 1985 and, in our reference case, to 4300 tons in 1987 and 1988. Annual
domestic U3Og production from conventional mining soures (i.e., from milling of ore
obtained from underground or open-pit mining) has fallen even more steeply than
overall production: by 75 percent, from about 18,600 tons in 1980 to 4618 tons in 1984.
As a result, the percentage of U,Og obtained from conventional sources has declined
from 85 percent in 1980 to 62 percent in 1984.
The reason for the relatively steeper decline in production from conventional sources is
that nonconventional U3Og producers tend to have lower marginal costs of production
All U3Og production data presented in this chapter is after milling and excludes U3Og
which is not recovered from the ores in milling. In recent years, the milling recovery
rate has been between 95 and 97 percent.
57
57
-------
than conventional producers, and so production from nonconventional sources tends to
be less affected by the recent decline in uranium prices. Indeed, production from the
largest category of nonconventional sources, byproduct production, is virtually indepen-
dent of uranium prices (and has actually risen from about 1300 tons in 1981 to about
1650 tons in 1984). The primary source of byproduct UgOg is wet-process production of
phosphoric acid; other sources are copper waste dumps (a source which can be affected
by uranium prices) and beryllium ores. The second significant nonconventional source is
in situ leaching, which yielded about 2100 tons of U3Og in 1981 and about 1000 tons in
1984. Other less important sources include mine water and heap leaching; 255 tons of
U0O0 were obtained from these sources in 1984.
o o
The projections of domestic tLOg production from conventional sources shown in
Exhibit 4-1 were derived by JFA from the projections of total production by assuming
that conventional sources would continue to be more affected by changes in the market
than unconventional sources. Accordingly, conventional production is projected to
decline from 4618 tons in 1984 (62 percent of total production) to 1800 tons in 1985 (41
percent of total production) before beginning to increase gradually in both total volume
and percentage of production.
The low-demand and middle-demand DOE projections of domestic U3Og production
through the year 2000 are the only recently published projections of domestic uranium
production. These projections are based on a unit-by-unit review of nuclear power
plants that are now operating or under construction. Under DOE's middle-demand case,
nuclear generating capacity is expected to increase from 71 GWe in 1984 to 117 GWe in
1993, and then to decline slightly to 116 GWe in the year 2000. Under the low-demand
case, DOE estimates that about 10 GWe of new capacity currently on order will be
canceled, resulting in a peak capacity of 107.5 GWe in 1992 followed by a slight decline
to 106.4 GWe in the year 2000. Both sets of projections assume no reactors which have
not already been ordered will come on-line by the year 2000, and the low-demand
uranium production projections further assume no new orders through 2010.
Short-term and long-term projections of United States uranium production capability
have also been published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop-
ment in 1983 (OECD 83, pp. 316 and 318). These projections show production capability
rising from 10,300 metric tonnes in 1984 to 14,000-18,700 tonnes in 1995 and 9400-
20,000 tonnes in 2005. Presuming that production during the short-term would be
limited by capability and not by demand (as actually appears to be the case), OECD
projects that resource depletion will result in a substantial decline in production
capability after 2005, falling to 2500-3700 tonnes in 2025.
58
-------
The two sets of projections of nuclear generating capacity underlying DOE'S uranium
production are shown graphically in Exhibit 4-2, along with three sets of DOE
projections of total generating capacity through 1995 (which is as far as currently
available DOE projections of total generating capacity go). DOE also has developed a
high set of projections of nuclear generating capacity (but not of uranium production);
the high projections differ only slightly from the middle projections and are not shown
in the exhibit. The three sets of total generating capacity projections shown in Exhibit
4-2 represent three of the five sets of such projections developed by DOE; the
remaining projections, which presume either higher or lower real increases in fuel
prices in the post-1990 period, have been omitted from the exhibit to avoid clutter. All
DOE projections of total generating capacity incorporate the middle-case projections of
nuclear generating capacity.
The Exhibit 4-1 historic data and reference-case projections for total domestic uranium
production and domestic production from conventional sources are shown graphically in
Exhibit 4-3. The latter exhibit also shows historic data and projections of total
enrichment feed deliveries, net change in U,Og inventories, and net imports. With the
exception of 1985-1989 net imports, these last three series are taken from DOE's low-
demand projections (DOE 85c, pp. 148, 150 and 152); the level of net imports shown in
the exhibit for 1985-1989 are slightly higher than DOE's low-demand projections
because of our downward adjustment of total domestic production.
Exhibit 4-4 shows plots of corresponding values for our alternate-case projections of
domestic uranium production and for projections of total enrichment feed deliveries,
net change in U,Og inventories, and net imports obtained from DOE's middle-demand
projections of these quantities (DOE 85c, pp. 147, 149 and 151) in the same fashion as
the plots in Exhibit 4-3. The middle-demand projections of total enrichment feed
deliveries for 1985-1994 were obtained by DOE directly from utility estimates of feed
deliveries. DOE also developed their own projections of enrichment feed deliveries for
1985-2000, but used these projections only for developing production estimates for
1995-2000. The DOE projections for 1985-1994 show less year-to-year fluctuation and
are generally somewhat lower than the utility estimates (which are the ones shown in
Exhibit 4-4).
59
-------
EXHIBIT 4-2;
PROJECTED ELECTRICITY-GENERATION CAPACITY
GWe
80(h
700
600-
500 -
400- •
300- •
200- •
100--
Electric Utility Capacity —
Low, Medium and High Economic Growth Cases
Nuclear Power Generation Capacity
— Low and Medium Cases
1985 199019952000
Sources: DOE 85a, pp. 215, 235 and 255; and DOE 85c, pp. 28-29.
60
-------
EXHIBIT 4-3;
SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY;
1980-1984 AND REFERENCE CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE YEAR 2000
r\
Oc
t
00
II
Wr-
Total Demand
(Utility Enrichment Feed Deliveries)
Total Supply
Net
Inventory
Reduction
Net Imports
Total Domestic
Production
Nonconventional Production
Conventional
Production
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Sources: Exhibit 3.1 and DOE 85c, pp. 148, 150 and 152.
61
-------
EXHIBIT 4-4;
SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY;
1980-1984 AND ALTERNATIVE-CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE YEAR 2000
r\
B I
CD
0[
i-o
00
II
26-
24-
22-
20
18
16
H
12
10
8
6-
4-
2-
Total Demand
(Utility Enrichment Feed Deliveries)
Net
Inventory
Reduction
Total Supply
Net Imports
Total Domestic
Production
Nonconventional Production
Conventional Production
1
I I I
III!
1 I I
I 1 I
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
Sources: Exhibit 3.1 and DOE 85c, pp. 147, 149 and 151.
62
-------
The increase in enrichment feed deliveries shown in Exhibit 4-4 for the 1997-2000
period reflect DOE's middle-demand case assumption that nuclear generating capacity
will begin to increase significantly in 2001. Although this assumption may not be
appropriate, it does not appear to have a significant effect on DOE's projections of
domestic UgOg production during this time period, and so DOE's projections were
accepted for this time period without modification.
4.1.2 Long-Term Scenarios
In this section, long-term scenarios of total domestic production of tLOg and of
domestic production from conventional uranium sources are presented and discussed.
The discussion includes a comparison of total domestic uranium production under the
two scenarios during 1985-2085 to estimated domestic resources and a discussion of the
relationship of projected domestic uranium production in 2085 to the implications for
electricity generated in that year from this source and from other sources.
The Scenarios
Reference-case and alternate-case scenarios of total domestic production of tLOg and
of domestic production from conventional uranium sources for 2000-2085 are shown in
tabular form in Exhibit 4-5. The two scenarios of total production were obtained by
assuming annual growth rates of 1.4 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, during the
first twenty years of this period and then a gradual reduction of four percent per year
in the growth rates for the remainder of the period. It can be seen from the exhibit
that, by 2085, annual uranium production under both scenarios will have nearly leveled
off. The projected production levels of 11,961 and 28,499 tons in 2085 under the two
scenarios may be compared to actual production of 21,900 tons in 1980, when the
historic peak in production was set.
The annual growth rates of 1.4 and 2.8 percent in total domestic uranium prduction used
during 2000-2020 are identical to the average annual growth rates obtained during this
period in DOE's 1984 low-case and middle-case projections of installed nuclear capacity
(DOE 84a, p. 19) and lower than the corresponding 1.5 and 3.9 percent growth rates
63
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EXHIBIT 4-5;
POST-2000 PROJECTIONS OF
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U,00
o o
(Short Tons)
Reference Case
Total Conventional
Alternate Case
Total Conventional
2000
2005
2010
2O15
2O20
2O25
2O30
2035
2O40
2O45
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2O80
2085
6.550
7.022
7.527
8.069
8.650
9.223
9.720
10, ma
10.505
10.808
11,062
11,274
11.450
11.595
11.715
11.813
11.894
11.961
3.600
3.954
4,333
4.739
5.175
5.605
6.052
6.434
6.758
7.031
7,260
7.451
7.609
7.739
7.847
7,936
8.009
8.069
8,600
9.873
11,335
13,014
14.940
16,974
18,839
20.514
21.992
23,278
24.382
25.322
26. 116
26.782
27.338
27.800
28.183
28.499
5.250
6,205
7,301
8,560
10.0O5
11.530
13.209
14.717
16.047
17.204
18,198
19.044
19.759
20,358
20,859
21,274
21,619
21,903
64
-------
obtained in the 1985 DOE projections (DOE 85b, p.22). It should be observed, however,
that our growth rates represent growth in domestic production of uranium and not
installed nuclear capacity, and so our two scenarios do not necessarily correspond to 1.4
and 2.8 percent growth rates in nuclear capacity. Factors which might cause nuclear
capacity to grow at a different rate than domestic uranium production include: a
change in the percentage of uranium imported (from the 61 percent and 67 percent
levels projected in the year 2000); improved reactor efficiency or enrichment-plant
efficiency; the use of higher fuel burnup levels; and spent-fuel reprocessing.
Considering these factors, as well as constraints on resource availability (discussed in
the following subsection), it is our belief that the 1.4 and 2.8 percent rates of increase
in domestic uranium production are appropriate for use in a moderately low scenario
and a moderately high scenario, respectively.
In addition to the DOE low-case and middle-case projections of installed nuclear
capacity discussed above, DOE has developed projections for a high case and a no-new-
orders case. DOE's 1984 and 1985 high-case projections have average annual growth
rates during 2000-2020 of 5.2 and 5.9 percent, respectively. During the same period, as
The higher growth rates obtained in the 1985 DOE projections appear to result from an
inconsistent set of parameter modifications made by DOE between the 1984 and 1985
runs of the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES). This system (DOE
85b, pp. 90-95) requires several user-specified parameter values, including the growth
rate in real aggregate energy prices and the rate at which the nuclear share of
electrical generation approaches in exogenously specified asymptote.
Continued softness in the price of fossil fuels makes it likely that energy price
increases during the 2000-2020 time period will be lower than previously expected, and
that the eventual shift to nuclear energy will be slower than previously expected.
Accordingly, between the 1984 and 1985 WINES runs, DOE reduced the values assigned
to both the real energy-price growth rate and the rate at which the nuclear share of
electrical generation approaches its asymptote. The first of these changes results in a
substantial increase in projected energy consumption, electricity consumption, and
nuclear power generated; while the second change tends to slow or, if large enough, to
reverse the increase in nuclear power generated (at least during 2000-2020). It appears
likely that if real growth in fossil-fuel prices remains moderate, as now forecast, the
rate at which the nuclear share of electrical generation increases will be substantially
lower than assumed by DOE in the 1985 WINES run. We believe that, if a better
representation of the rate at which the nuclear share of electrical generation grows
during 2000-2020 had been used in the 1985 WINES run, the system would have produced
nuclear generating capacity growth rates which are similar to or lower than those
produced in the 1984 WINES runs.
65
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a result of retirements, the no-new-orders case shows a sharp 60 GWe drop in installed
nuclear capacity, starting from 109 GWe or 106 GWe (in the 1984 and 1985 reports,
respectively) (DOE 84a, pp. 19 and 21; DOE 85b, pp. 22 and 24). DOE's projections of
nuclear generation and installed nuclear capacity extend only as far as 2020. These
projections and the OECD projections of uranium-production capability (OECD 83,
discussed in an earlier footnote) are the only projections we have been able to find
which extend beyond the year 2000 and which relate to uranium production or nuclear
generation.
The projections of domestic production from conventional sources shown in Exhibit 4-5
were obtained by assuming that nonconventional sources would account for 25 percent
of the increase in total production through the year 2025 and ten percent of the
increase in subsequent years. By way of comparison,, reduction in production from
nonconventional sources accounted for about ten percent of the decline in production
during 1980-1984. Increases in production from nonconventional sources are expected
to be provided primarily from byproduct production and, as a result of continuing
technological advances, from in situ leaching.
The primary source of byproduct production of UgOg is from wet-process production of
phosphoric acid. At a selling price of about $60 per pound (in 1985 dollars), potential
UoOg production from this source would currently be about 6000 tons (De 79); though,
as a result of depletion of phosphate resources, this potential is expected to decline
over time, to 5000 tons in 2000, 4600 tons in 2025, and presumably to lower values in
subsequent years. Since prices are only expected to recover to about $50 per pound by
the end of the century (DOE 85c, pp. 143-144), production from this source is likely to
remain below maximum potential until well into the next century. The post-2025
decline assumed in the nonconventional-production growth rate reflects an expected
gradual decline in phosphate-byproducts UgOg production ater the maximum potential
production rate is attained.
Historic and projected total and conventional domestic uranium production for the
1980-2085 period, from Exhibits 4-1 and 4-5, are shown graphically in Exhibit 4-6.
Exhibit 4-7 shows total production by five-year period and for the fuU 100-year period:
1986-2085.
66
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EXHIBIT 4-6;
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF
, 1980-2085
r\
,-0c
I- o
00
II
0)1-
Alternate Case
Conventional
Reference Case
Conventional
I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I ! I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I M M I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Year
67
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EXHIBIT 4-7;
TOTAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U,00
o o
(Short Tons)
Reference Case
Total Conventional
Alternate Case
Total Conventional
1986 -
1991 -
1996 -
2001 -
2O06 -
2011 -
2016 -
2021 -
2026 -
2031 -
2036 -
2041 -
2O46 -
2051 -
2056 -
2061 -
2066 -
2071 -
2076 -
2081 -
90
95
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
21.650
24.600
31.100
34.15r
36.61O
39.245
42.071
45.001
47,635
49.899
51.827
53.455
54.821
55.962
56.910
57.695
58.343
58.877
59.316
59.677
9.300
11.900
16.700
19.051
20.895
22,872
24.990
27. 188
29.392
31.430
33.164
34.630
35.859
36.886
37.739
38.445
39.029
39.509
39.905
40. 229
23.850
26.550
39.400
46.750
53.672
61,618
70.742
80.862
90.537
99.300
107.085
113.893
119.772
124.794
129.049
132,628
135.621
138.113
140.179
141.887
11.100
13.700
23.650
29.062
34.254
40,214
47.056
54.646
62,754
70.640
77.646
83.774
89.064
93.585
97.414
100,635
103.329
105.571
107.431
108.968
1986-2085 938.846 589.113
1.876.300 1.354.491
68
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Discussion
This section compares our scenarios for domestic production of U,Og, presented above,
to total domestic uranium resources and discusses the relationship of the projections to
total electricity generation.
Domestic Uranium Resources
The projections of domestic UgOg production shown in Exhibit 4-7 (above) indicate that
between 0.9 and 1.9 million tons of U^Og will be produced domestically over the next
100 years. Over this time period, perhaps 200,000 to 300,000 tons may be obtained as a
byproduct of mining of other minerals, with the remainder obtained from domestic
mining of UgOg. A discussion of the potential for byproduct production of UoOg is
presented below, followed by a discussion of the extent of other domestic U3Og
resources.
Byproduct Production
The most significant domestic source of byproduct uranium is phosphate mining and
processing. As indicated above, a 1979 DOE study (De 79) estimated that, by 1985,
6000 tons of U,Og could be produced annually as a byproduct of wet-process production
of phosphoric acid at a selling price of $40 per pound (1979 dollars), but that such
production would decline gradually to 4600 tons by 2025. Presumably, potential
production from this source will continue to decline after 2025. Since the average
contract price for UoOfi is now only about $23 per pound (in current dollars) and is not
expected to reach the required level until after the end of the century (DOE 85c, pp.
143-144), current production from this source is only about one-fourth of the indicated
potential and is likely to remain below this potential for some time. However, over the
full 100-year period, a substantial amount of U3Og is likely to be obtained from this
source, perhaps as much as 200,000 tons in the reference-case scenario and 300,000 tons
in the alternate-case scenario. In addition, over this time frame, there may be some
potential for a technological breakthrough which would make it economically feasible
to obtain byproduct U,Og from phosphate rock which is used for purposes other than
the production of phosphoric acid.
69
-------
Other potential sources of byproduct uranium are: copper waste dumps; the red mud
obtained when alumina is removed from bauxite; and the beryllium ores of west-central
Utah. A modest amount of U3Og is currently being obtained from copper produced in
Utah and Arizona, and DOE estimated in 1980 (DOE 80, p. 117) that 500 to 1000 tons of
byproduct UQO0 could be obtained annually from copper ores. DOE also estimated at
o o
that time that a few hundred tons per year of byproduct U3Og could be obtained from
red mud and that 17 tons per year would be obtained from beryllium ores when an
already installed circuit to recover uranium is put into operation.
Other Domestic Resources
The top half of Exhibit 4-8 shows DOE estimates of the total "endowment" of domestic
UoOg resources. The "endowment" is defined as all U3Og contained in deposits
containing at least 0.01 percent (100 ppm) of UgOg. The resource estimates shown in
the top half of this exhibit are grouped by resource category and by "forward cost of
recovery". The four resource categories used in the DOE publication which is the
primary source (DOE 84c) for the information in the exhibit are those used by the
International Atomic Energy Agency and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency:
• Reasonably Assured Resources refers to uranium in known mineral
deposits which could be recovered within given production cost ranges
using currently proven technology (and corresponds to DOE's Reserves
category).
• Estimated Additional Resources Category I refers to additional uranium
expected to occur in extensions of well-explored deposits and in other
deposits in which geological continuity has been established.
• Estimated Additional Resources Category II refers to additional uranium
expected to occur in deposits believed to exist in well-defined geological
trends or areas of mineralization with known deposits. (The two cate-
gories of Estimated Additional Resources, together, correspond to DOE's
Probable Potential Resources category.)
• Speculative Resources refers to uranium which is thought to exist, mostly
on the basis of indirect evidence and geological extrapolations (and
corresponds to DOE's Possible Potential and Speculative Potential
Resource categories).
70
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EXHIBIT 4-8;
DOMESTIC URANIUM RESOURCES
Endowment
(thousands of short tons of U,Og)
Resource Category
Forward Cost of Recovery
$ 0 - $30/lb
$31 - $60/lb.
$51 - 100/lb.
Total of Above
Over $100Ab.
Total
Reasonably
Assured
180
390
315
885
Estimated
Category I
42
72
100
214
Additional
Category II
630
440
605
1675
Speculative
540
460
620
1620
Total
1392
1362
1640
4394
30563
7450'
Other Significant (but low-grade) Resources
Marine Phosphorites 4 million tons
Chattanooga Shale
Gassaway Member 5 million tons (55-70 ppm)
Dowelltown Member no info.
Seawater
5 billion tons (3-4 ppb)
Sources
DOE 84c, pp. 24-26, except as noted.
JDOE 80, pp. 116-118.
Estimated from data in above sources. See text.
-------
The "forward cost of recovery" of uranium resources represents estimates of most
future costs of mining, processing and marketing UgOg, exclusive of return on capital.
These estimates include the costs of transportation, environmental and waste manage-
ment, construction of new operating units and maintenance of all operating units,
future exploration and development costs, and appropriate indirect costs such as those
for office overhead, taxes and royalties.
The top half of Exhibit 4-8 shows estimates of all UgOg resources having a forward cost
of recovery of no more than $100 per pound (1983 estimates) grouped by resource
category plus one additional estimate of resources in the endowment having a cost of
recovery of over $100 per pound. This latter estimate was derived by taking a set of
1980 estimates (DOE 80, pp. 33-113) of the total endowment in DOE's Probable,
Possible and Speculative Potential Resource categories and subtracting Exhibit 4-8
estimates of the quantity of reserves in these three categories having forward costs of
recovery no greater than $100 per pound. This procedure corrects for changes in
estimated forward cost of recovery between the 1980 and 1984 sources, but it does not
correct for any additions or deletions which may have occurred to estimated resources
in the three categories.
In addition to estimated U^Og resources in the endowment, there are some large lower
grade UgOg resources. The most significant of these are Chattanooga Shale deposits,
seawater, and the marine phosphorites from which (as discussed in the preceding
subsection) UgOg is currently being obtained as a byproduct of phosphoric acid
production. It is estimated that the Gassaway Member of Chattanooga Shale is 55 to 70
ppm UoOg and contains about 5 million tons of UoOg (as well as larger amounts of
vanadium, ammonia, sulfur and oil) (MSR 78); the Dowelltown Member lies beneath the
Gassaway Member and is about the same thickness (fifteen feet) but is not further
described in the DOE source (DOE 80, p. 116).
Seawater represents a huge, very low-grade source of uranium, averaging 3 to 4 parts
per billion and containing perhaps five billion tons of U,Og. Using very optimistic
assumptions, the cost of recovery using current technology has been estimated to be
As indicated above, DOE's Probable, Possible and Speculative Potential Resource
categories correspond, as a group, to the two Estimated Additional Resource categories
and the Speculative Resource category used in Exhibit 5.
72
-------
$1400 per pound of UgOg, though a Massachusetts Institute of Technology study
suggests that improved technology could reduce the cost to $300 per pound, and possibly
to $100 or less per pound (Ca 79 and Ro 79).
If, as suggested in the preceding subsection, about 200 to 300 thousand tons of U,Og
will be obtained over the next 100 years as a byproduct of other mining activities, the
reference-case scenario previously presented in Exhibit 3.7 would require that about
700,000 tons of U^Og be obtained from other domestic sources, and the alternate-case
scenario would require that about 1.6 million tons be obtained from these sources. A
relatively insignificant portion of this UoOg could be obtained from existing tailings
piles. (DOE has estimated that, as of January 1, 1980, about 9500 tons could be
obtained from active and inactive tailings piles at a forward cost of $100 per pound or
less (DOE 80, p.119). Hence, the scenarios indicate that about 0.7 or 1.6 million tons of
U,Og will be obtained over the next 100 years from the domestic resources summarized
in Exhibit 4-8.
Exhibit 4-8 (above) indicates that, excluding speculative resources, there are estimated
to be 852,000 tons of UoOg with a forward cost of recovery of no more than $30 per
pound, and 1.75 million tons with a forward cost of recovery of no more than $60 per
pound. Assuming an average UQOQ recovery rate of about 90 percent for all domestic
1
mining over the next 100 years, production of 700,000 tons would nearly deplete the
resources with a forward cost of recovery of less than $30 per pound; and production of
1.6 million tons might require the mining of at least some of the ore with a forward
cost of recovery of over $60 per pound (depending on the actual extent of our domestic
resources and our ability to find them within the next 100 years).
Both scenarios would also result in a significant increase in the price of UoOg from its
present level of $23 per pound to the $35-$80 per pound range (in 1983 dollars) by
2085. These indicated real price increases are quite modest, since DOE is currently
projecting contract prices of about $40 per pound (1985 dollars) in the latter half of the
next decade (DOE 85c, pp. 143-144).
The recovery rate in 1983 was actually 96.7 percent (DOE 84c, p. 20); however, it is
assumed that this rate will decline with the declining grade of ore being mined.
2It should be noted that, since the "forward cost of recovery" does not include return on
capital, the selling price of U3Og will normally be higher than the forward cost of
recovery.
73
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Total Electricity Generation
Corresponding to each of the domestic U3Og production scenarios for 2085 are a range
of possible projections of total electricity consumption. One end of this range
represents the situation in which nearly all electricity is obtained from conventional
fission (i.e., from UOQ(-) and uranium imports continue to be limited. In this situation,
ZoD
perhaps as much as one quarter of all electricity is derived from conventional fission of
domestically produced uranium. The percentage of electricity may be lower than this
as a result of greater use of imported uranium or as a result of greater use of
electricity from alternative sources; e.g., coal or solar. (In developing our scenarios,
we have assumed that there would be no technological breakthrough which permits
either a cessation or a substantial reduction in the construction of new uranium-fueled
nuclear power plants. Under various assumptions, the percentage of electricity derived
from conventional fission of domestically produced uranium might be as low as two
percent (or lower if any significant technological breakthrough occurs).
A range of projections of total electricity consumption in 2085 is presented in Exhibit
4-9. The projections correspond to the previously presented reference-case and
alternate-case scenarios for domestic U^Og production under the assumptions that 2, 5,
10 or 25 percent of electricity is derived from domestic uranium sources. The
projections presume that 31 million KWh (net) of electricity are generated per ton of
U3Og (DOE 84d, pp. 76-77), and thus they presume that there is no significant increase
in reactor or enrichment-plant efficiency; to the extent that such efficiency improve-
ments may occur, the projections in Exhibit 3.9 should be revised upwards.
The projections shown in Exhibit 4-9 indicate that between 1.5 and 17.7 trillion KWh of
electricity will be produced in 2085. The more extreme values in this range, however,
represent relatively unlikely combinations of scenarios. A high percentage of elec-
tricity from domestic U235 sources, for example, would mean a relatively high reliance
on domestic uranium and would probably result in sufficient increases in uranium prices
to warrant use of higher-cost domestic uranium resources, as would occur under the
alternate-case scenario. Conversely a low percentage of electricity from domestic
U235 sources would mean more effective competition from other fuel sources (imported
uranium, coal, etc.) and possibly the development of new electricity sources (e.g.,
fusion or the breeder reactor, though, by assumption, the development of these new
-------
EXHIBIT 4-9;
PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
IN 2085 UNDER VARIOUS SCENARIOS
(trillions of KWh, net)
Percent of
Electricity from
Domestic U-235
25%
10%
5%
Approximate Number
of 1 GWe Units
Supported by
Domestic U-235
Domestic U,Og Production Scenario
Reference Case
1.5
Alternate Case
3.7
7.4
3.5
8.8
17.7
(*)
60
150
N.B. These projections presume current reactor and enrichment-feed technology
(See text).
(*) The most likely projections are those inside the box.
-------
sources would not result in a significant reduction in the number of U235 power plants
during the 100-year time period); under these circumstances, uranium prices would rise
less and we would be less likely to tap the higher-cost resources which would be used
under the alternate-case scenario.
In the light of the above discussion, the most likely projections of 2085 electricity
consumption are those shown in the diagonal box in Exhibit 4-9. These projections
suggest that between 3.5 and 8.8 trillion KWh of electricity will be consumed in 2085 (in
comparison to the 2.3 trillion KWh consumed in 1984 (DOE 85d, p.77)).
In addition to the projections of electricity consumption, Exhibit 4-9 also shows the
approximate number of one GWe nuclear power-plant units which would be supported by
domestically produced U2oc under each of the uranium-production scenarios (assuming
a 66 percent average utilization rate). Approximately 60 units would be supported
under the reference-case scenario and 150 units under the alternate-case scenario. It
should be observed that a substantial (but undetermined) number of additional units
would be supported by imported
Projected average annual rates of change in electricity consumption were obtained
from the Exhibit 4-9 projections for 2085 and from DOE's projection of 2.32 trillion
KWh for 1985 (DOE 85a, p. 214). The results are presented in Exhibit 4-10. These
results range from an average decline of 0.4 percent per year to an average increase of
2.1 percent per year. For the most likely scenarios (those in the diagonal box), modest
increases of 0.4 to 1.3 percent per year are indicated.
It is also possible to express the rates of change in electricity consumption on a per
capita basis using any of several projections of population growth. The U.S. Bureau of
the Census has recently published three series of population projections for the United
States through the year 2080 (Cen 84). The middle series shows population growing
from 232 million in 1982 to an essentially static 311 million in 2080. The lowest series
shows population peaking at 263 million in 2017 and declining to 191 million in 2080; and
the highest series shows population climbing to 531 million in 2080 (and increasing at a
0.7 percent annual rate during the last five years of this time period).
Using the middle series population projections, the United States population will rise
from 232 million in 1982 to about 311 million in 2085. The average annual rate of
76
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EXHIBIT 4-10;
AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE
IN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085
Percent
Electricity from
Domestic U-235
25%
10%
5%
Domestic U,Og Production Scenario
Reference Case
-0.4
+0.5
+1.2
Alternate Case
+0.4
+1.3
+2.1
(*)
(*) The most likely projections are those inside the box.
77
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population increase over this time period is 0.285 percent (though the actual rate of
increase is initially much higher and declines to zero by the end of the period). Using
this population series yields the projected average annual per capita rates of change in
electricity consumption shown in Exhibit 4-11. These figures are just 0.285 percent
smaller than the corresponding figures shown in Exhibit 4-10, and they range from a 0.7
percent annual decline to a 1.8 percent annual increase. For the most likely scenarios
(those in the diagonal box), modest average annual increases of 0.1 to 1.1 percent are
projected in per capita electricity consumption.
4.2 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Exhibit 4-12 lists employment projections from 1985 to 2085 for the uranium milling
industry. Projections are provided for the reference case and alternate case described
earlier in this chapter. The reference case shows employment growing steadily from
1991 to 2085 after a relatively stagnant period from 1985 to 1991. The alternate case
shows employment growing through 1992, declining steadily in 1993 and resuming
growth thereafter.
The projections were developed in the following manner. Output-per-person-year was
used as a measure of productivity. Data for this variable were obtained by dividing
total annual uranium concentrate production from 1967 to 1984 by each year's total
employment measured in person years, then averaging the results for the period (DOE
85e). The resulting productivity factor, 6.88 short tons per person-year, was then
divided into the production forecasts summarized in Exhibit 4-7, "Total Domestic
Production of U3Og: 1984-2085." Average historical productivity was considered
suitable for use in projecting future employment because no technological changes in
uranium processing that might affect mill productivity are expected.
4.3 DEVELOPMENT OF THE BASELINE
Chapter 3 presented data on the status of all existing impoundments. Many of the mills
where these impoundments are located have been operating for over 25 years and have
only limited remaining useful life. The acid-leach milling process utilized in this
industry is a hostile environment for most machinery. While no definitive data are
available on the expected remaining useful lives of the existing mills, it is assumed for
this analisis that none of these facilities would be able to operate economically after
the year 2000. Thus new mills and impoundments would have to be constructed on
current mill sites or on new sites to meet the production scenarios developed in Section
78
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EXHIBIT 4-11;
AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE
IN PER CAPITA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085
Percent of
Electricity from
Domestic U-235
Domestic U,Og Production Scenario
Reference Case
Alternate Case
25%
10%
5%
-0.7
+0.2
+0.9
+0.1
+1.1
+1.8
'(*)
(*) The most likely projections are those inside the box.
79
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EXHIBIT 4-12;
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS; 1985-2085
(Person-Years)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2O01
2002
2O03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2O17
2018
2O19
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2O33
2036
Reference
Case
262
262
269
269
276
276
276
305
356
385
407
436
465
494
509
523
533
543
554
564
575
585
596
607
618
630
641
653
665
677
689
701
714
726
739
752
765
778
791
803
815
828
842
855
867
880
891
903
914
925
Alternate
Case
262
276
291
320
349
378
392
4OO
371
378
451
552
654
719
749
763
789
816
844
873
902
932
963
995
1028
1061
1096
1131
1168
12O6
1244
1284
1325
1367
1410
1454
1500
1545
1589
1633
1676
1727
1776
1825
1873
1920
1966
2O11
2055
2097
-------
EXHIBIT 4-12;
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS; 1985-2085 — (Continued)
(Person-Years)
2035
2036
2037
2O38
2O39
2010
2041
2042
20(13
2044
2O45
2046
2O4?
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2O63
2064
2O65
2066
2067
2068
2069
207O
2O71
2072
2O73
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2O&O
2O81
2O82
2O83
2084
208$
Reference
Case
935
945
955
964
974
982
991
999
1007
1015
1022
1029
1036
1043
1049
1055
1061
1067
1072
1078
1083
1088
1093
1097
1102
1106
1110
1114
1118
1121
1125
1128
1132
1135
1138
1141
1143
1146
1149
1151
1153
1156
1158
1160
1162
1164
1166
1168
1170
1171
1173
Alternate
Case
2139
2180
2220
2258
2296
2332
2368
2403
2436
2469
2501
2531
2561
2590
2618
2645
2671
2697
2721
2745
2768
2790
2812
2833
2853
2872
2891
2909
2926
2943
2959
2975
2990
3004
3018
3032
3045
3057
3069
3081
3092
3103
3113
3123
3133
3142
3151
3160
3168
3176
3184
-------
4.1 above. In actuality, many of those mills will cease being economic production
options well before 2000 and some, with extensive maintenance and partial rebuilding
may well be economic after 2000.
While many configurations of mills are possible for future facilities, this report utilizes
the NRC model mill and impoundment for all future new mills. The model mill is
thoroughly described in the Background Information Document. This model mill is
consistent with the model mill utilized in previous analysis of final stabilization
standards under other ORP and NRC rulemakings.
When a licensed mill is not operating, it is considered to be on standby. Licensing
authorities may require that a limited dust cover (usually about one foot of earth) be
placed on the tailings piles to prevent extensive blowing of dry tailings during standby
periods. Radon emission levels may not be substantially effected by this limited cover.
In the past, mills have remained on standby for long periods to time. Today, only 2 of
the 27 licensed mills are operating, the balance are on standby or preparing for
decommissioning. When a mill owner decides to terminate an operating license, the
decommissioning of the mill and final stabilization of the tailings impoundments will
occur. For the purpose of the baseline it is assumed that a period of 45 years after
ceasing operation occurs before stabilization. While the period of 5 years of wet
tailings and 40 years of dry tailings appears consistent with current practices, a
sensitivity run with only 20 years of dry tailings is presented in subsequent analysis.
Section 4.1 develops two future production scenarios, a reference case developed from
the DOE low production scenario and an alternate case developed from the DOE mid-
production case. These forecasts are very similar between now and the year 2020 as
they are based on the stock of nuclear power plants in operation or currently nearing
completion. The basic difference in the forecasts is the expected cancellations of
plants currently on order and the time period before new orders are again placed. Such
assumptions are purely speculative. Substantial variance in these forecasts could easily
be supported through adjustments in these assumptions. Both cases imply that nuclear
power will continue to provide a substantial portion of our future electric generation
needs. The low case provides for utilization of all existing facilities in 2010. These
new new orders will replace existing nuclear capacity and add additional nuclear
capacity over time. This scenario was selected as the reference case as a conservative
judgement about the future of nuclear power. The alternate case with a greater shift
82
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to nuclear power in the future provides a sensitivity to the conservative assumption
about the future of nuclear power.
Given the assumption about the expected useful life of existing mills and impoundments
and a 15 year operating life for new model mills, the specific number of mills required
to meet the reference and alternate case production scenarios can be developed.
Exhibit 4-13 presents the number of existing and new mills operating and coming on line
by five year period for the next 100 years. Mills operating from 1985-2000 are all
existing mills and, by assumption, they are all replaced by new mills in 2000. It should
be noted that it requires eight and eleven new model mills for the reference and
alternate cases to replace the capacity of the existing mills that stopped operation in
2000. As the operating life of a model mill is fixed at 15 years, this results in an
artificial periodic capacity replcement cycle for this new year 2000 capacity that
repeats every 15 years through year 2085.
Given the reference case production forecast presented in Section 4.1 above and the
estimates of emissions for existing impoundments in Chapter 3, the development of a
profile of the expected fatal lung cancer for current and future impoundments can be
developed. Using emissions data on existing impoundments and estimates of emissions
of model impoundments for future sites, Exhibit 4-14 presents expected future cancers
by type of impoundment and region of impact over the next 100 years. Exhibit 4-15
identifies the state in which the emissions occur for existing impoundments. Total fatal
cancers shown in these exhibits are a result of the emissions from all existing
impoundments or those constructed over the next 100 years. The period post-1985 is
the emissions and fatal lung cancers from impoundments constructed in or prior to 1985
and still operating or on standby after 2085 awaiting final stabilization.
83
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EXHIBIT 4-13;
NUMBER OF EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS IN USE AND NEW MILLS/IMPOUNDMENTS
OPENED BY PERIOD FOR THE REFERENCE CASE(*) AND THE ALTERNATE CASE(**)
Reference Case Alternate Case
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
(*) Reference
(**) Alternate
In Use
4
4
3
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
17
17
17
Case: Low
Case: High
Opened
8
1
1
9
2
2
10
2
3
10
3
3
11
3
3
11
3
Production
Production
In Use
4
4
3
11
13
15
18
21
23
26
28
30
32
34
35
36
37
37
38
39
Opened
11
2
2
14
5
4
17
7
6
19
9
7
20
10
7
21
11
84
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oo
en
EXHIBIT 4-14i
ESTIMATED COMMITTED FATAL LUNO CANCERS FROM RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM
EXISTING AND FUTURE TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
Location of
Impoundment
Existing Impoundments
Local Effects
0-5 kilometers
5-80 kilometers
Total Local
National Effects
Total Effects
New Impoundments
Local Effects
0-5 kilometers
5-80 kilometers
Total Local
National Effects
Total Effects
All Impoundments
Local Effects
0-5 kilometers
5-80 kilometers
Total Local
National Effects
Total Effects
1985-2005
3
30
33
50
81
.02
.2
.2
.4
.6
3
30
30
50
82
2006-2025
4
30
34
60
92
.3
3
3
5
8
4
30
40
60
101
TIME
2026-2045
1
10
11
22
34
1
10
10
20
30
3
20
20
40
65
PERIOD COMMITTED
2046-2065
.1
1
1
2
3
3
20
20
40
60
3
20
20
40
62
2066-2085
1
1
1
2
3
3
20
30
50
80
3
30
30
50
78
Post 2085b
6
40
50
90
137
6
40
50
90
137
Total*
9
TO
7t
136
214
14
101
114
1»8
311
JJ
171
193
333
526
Mlvidual Items may not add to total due to rounding.
Fatal lung cancers from piles uncovered In 2085 until they reach final cover.
-------
EXHIBIT 4-15i
ESTIMATED FATAL LUNQ CANCERS FROM EMISSIONS OF RADON-222 FROM EXISTING AND FUTURE TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS, BY STATE OP ORIGIN
TIME PERIOD COMMITTED
CO
O>
Location of
Impoundment
BX18TING IMPOUNDMENTS
Colorado
0-80 km
National
Total
New Mexico
0-80 km
National
Total
Texas
6-80 km
National
Total
Utah
0-80 km
National
Total
Washington
0-80 km
National
Total
Wyoming
0-80 km
National
Total
Total Existing Impoundments
New Impoundments
0-80 km
National
Total
Total All Impoundments
1986-2005
3
3
6
20
27
47
2
.7
2
1
5
6
3
4
7
.7
11
12
81
.2
.4
.6
82
2006-2025
5
5
10
22
30
51
2
.7
3
1
7
7
3
4
7
.9
14
15
93
3
5
8
101
2026-2045
4
3
7
7
10
17
.6
.2
.8
.5
2
3
.3
.5
.8
.4
6
6
34
11
20
31
65
2046-2065
.2
.2
.3
.6
.8
1
.2
.07
.3
.06
2
.3
.09
.1
.2
.04
.7
.7
3
22
37
59
62
2066-2085 Post 2085a
.2
.2
.3
.6
.8
1
.2
.07
.3
.06
.2
.3
.09
.1
.2
.04
.7
.7
3
27 50
47 87
78 137
84 137
Total
—
—
24
_
—
117
^^ _
_
8
r
17
r -
15
_
34
214
^^
i
311
S26
*Patal lung cancers from piles uncovered in 2085 until they reach final cover
''todlvldual Items may not add to total due to rounding.
-------
REFERENCES
Ca 79 M.H. Campbell, et. al., Extraction of Uranium from Seawater; Chemical
Process and Plant Design Feasibility Study, U.S. Department of Energy,
GJBX-36(79), 1989, as reported in DOE 80, p.117.
Cen 84 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Projections of the Population of the United
States, by Age, Sex, and Race; 1983 to 2080, Current Population Reports,
Series P-25, No. 952, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1984.
De 79 R.H. De Voto and D.N. Stevens, eds., Uraniferous Phosphate Resources
and Technology and Economics of Uranium Recovery from Phosphate
Resources, U.S. Department of Energy, GJBX-110(79), two volumes, 1979,
as reported in DOE 80, pp. 116-117.
DOE 80 U.S. Department of Energy, An Assessment Report on Uranium in the
United States of America, GJO-111(80), October 1980.
DOE 84a U.S. Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear Power; 1984, DOE/EIA-
0438 (1984), November 1984.
DOE 84b U.S. Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry
— 1983 Viability Assessment, DOE/S-033, December 1984.
DOE 84c U.S. Department of Energy, United States Uranium Mining and Milling
Industry — A Comprehensive Review, DOE/S-0028, May 1984.
DOE 84d U.S. Department of Energy, World Nuclear Fuel cycle Requirements —
1984, DOE/EIA-0436(84), November 1984.
DOE 85a U.S. Department of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook 1984, DOE/EIA-
0383(84), January 1985.
87
-------
DOE 85b U.S. Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear Power; Prospects for
the United States and the World, DOE/EIA-0438(85), September 1985.
DOE 85c U.S. Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling
Industry — 1984 Viability Assessment, DOE/EIA-0477, September 1985.
DOE 85d U.S. Department of Energy, Monthly Energy Review — April 1985,
DOE/EIA-0035(85/04), July 1985.
DOE 85e U.S. Department of Energy, Uranium Industry Annual 1984, DOE/EIA-
0478(84), October 1985.
MSR 78 Mountain States Research and Development and PRC Toups Corporation,
Engineering Assessment and Feasibility Study of the Chattanooga Shale as
a Future Source of Uranium, U.S. Department of Energy, GJBX-4(79),
1978, as reported in DOE 80, p.116.
OECD 83 OECD Nuclear Agency and International Atomic Energy Agency,
Uranium; Resources, Production and Demand, Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development, December 1983.
Rod 79 M.R. Rodman, et.al., Extraction of Uranium from Seawater; Evaluation
of Uranium Resources and Plant Siting, GJBX-35(79), 1979, as reported in
DOE 80, p.117.
88
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CHAPTER 5:
ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES FOR MILL TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
The reduction of radon-222 emissions from licensed uranium mills is most effectively
accomplished by managing the tailings impoundments because radon-222 emissions from
the milling circuit are relatively small and are not readily controlled. For mills which
are not operating and are on a standby basis, nearly all the radon-222 emissions come
from the tailings disposal area.
In this chapter the control techniques available for reducing radon emissions at mill
tailings impoundments are discussed. This is followed by a detailed discussion of
controls for existing impoundments and impoundments to be constructed in the future.
5.1 DESCRIPTION OF WORK PRACTICES
Radon emissions from uranium mill tailings can be reduced by minimizing or covering
tailings dry beach areas. Dry beach can be minimized by keeping the tailings covered
with fluids. Earth or synthetic material can be used in cases where fluid cover is not
practical. For new tailings impoundments, staged or phased disposal of the tailings or
de water ing and covering are also ways of limiting the area of exposed tailings.
Extraction of radium from the tailings, chemical fixation, and sintering of tailings as a
means of reducing radon emissions have also been explored, but have not been applied
on a large scale and appear too costly for general application (NRC80). The
applicability and effectiveness of control techniques are, for the most part, dependent
upon the design of the mill tailings impoundments and the mill's operating schedule.
Thus, the control techniques can be broadly classified as applicable to — 1) existing
tailings impoundments at existing uranium mills, and 2) new tailings impoundments at
either new or existing uranium mills.
5.1.1 Earth Cover
Covering the dried beach area with dirt is an effective method for reducing radon-222
emissions and is being used at inactive tailings impoundments. The depth of soil
required for a given amount of control varies with the type of earth and the tailings
radon-222 exhalation rate.
89
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Earth cover is useful in decreasing radon-222 emissions because it detains radon-222
long enough that it will decay in the cover. A rapid decrease in radon-222 emissions is
initially achieved by applying almost any type of earth. The high-moisture content
earths provide greater radon-222 emission reduction because of their smaller diffusion
coefficient.
In practice, earthen cover designs must take into account uncertainties in the measured
values of the specific cover materials used, the tailings to be covered, and predicted
long-term values of equilibrium moisture content for the specific location. The
uncertainty in predicting reductions in radon-222 flux increases rapidly as the required
radon-222 emission limit is reduced.
The cost of adding earth covers varies widely with location of the tailings impound-
ment, its layout, availability of earth, the topography of the disposal site, its
surroundings, and hauling distance. Another factor affecting costs of cover material is
its ease of excavation. In general, the more difficult the excavation, the more
elaborate and expensive the equipment and the higher the cost. The availability of
materials such as clay or sand will also affect costs. If the necessary materials are not
available locally they must be purchased and/or hauled and costs could increase
significantly.
5.1.2 Water Cover
Maintaining a water cover over the tailings reduces radon-222 emissions. The degree of
radon-222 control increases with the depth of the water and decreases with the radium -
226 content of the water. Factors affecting this practice include the mill water
recirculation rate (if any), evaporation and precipitation rates, pile construction and
slope, phreatic levels and precipitation rates, pile construction and slope, groundwater
contamination, and dike or dam stability. Some above-ground tailings piles minimize
the depth of water in the pond to reduce seepage and possible groundwater contami-
nation by draining the water through an overflow pipe to a separate lined evaporation
pond.
The diffusion coefficient of water is very low (about one thousandth that of a 9 percent
moisture content soil) and water is thus an effective barrier for radon-222. In shallow
areas, however, radon-222 release is increased by thermal gradients and wave motion
and emissions approach those of saturated tailings. Increased radium-226 content in the
water reduces its effectiveness in controlling radon-222 since it releases radon-222.
For a water depth less than 1 meter, the radon flux is similar to saturated bare tailings.
90
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If a tailings impoundment is initially designed and built to maintain a water cover, there
is no added cost for this form of radon-222 control. Continued monitoring is required to
determine if there is any seepage through the dam or sides, and groundwater samples
may be required peridocially as a check for contamination from seepage. However, if
the tailings impoundment is not designed to maintain a water cover, this form of work
practice may be undesirable as it may cause groundwater contamination. For the
purpose of this analysis saturated and ponded areas are assumed to have negligible
emissions.
5.1.3 Water Spraying
Water (or tailings liquid) sprays can be used to maintain a higher level of moisture in
the tailings beach areas. This reduces fugitive dust emissions and may reduce the loss
of radon-222 from the tailings. The effectiveness of this method, however, varies with
the moisture content of the tailings. The radon-222 emanation coefficient initially
increases with increasing moisture content up to about 5-10 percent moisture by weight
and then remains fairly constant. Thus, if water is applied to a very dry beach area,
radon-222 emissions would initially increase until the emanation becomes constant.
Increased moisture after that point decreases diffusion and thus decreases radon-222
emissions (St 82). Over longer periods of time, an overall radon-222 reduction of 20
percent has been estimated (NRC80). The overall feasibility of wetting to achieve
significant radon-222 reductions is questionable, especially in arid regions, since large
quantities of liquid are required to maintain high moisture levels.
5.1.4 Synthetic Covers
Synthetic material such as a polyethylene sheet can also reduce radon-222 emissions if
carefully placed and sealed on dry beach areas. Covering could be used on portions of
the tailings area on a temporary basis and then removed or covered with fresh tailings.
Such a barrier would also, at least temporarily, aid in the control of radon-222 if a soil
cover material is applied. The overall effectiveness of synthetic covers is not known
since leaks occur around the edges and at seams and breaks. Synthetic covers have a
limited life, especially in dry, sunny, windy areas and will not provide a long-term
barrier to radon-222. Chemical stabilization sprays that form coatings on the dry
tailings are effective for controlling dust, but are not too useful for suppressing radon-
222 since an impermeable cover is not obtained.
91
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5.1.5 Thermal Stabilization
Thermal stabilization is a process in which tailings are sintered at high temperatures.
The Los Alamos National Laboratory has conducted a series of tests on tailings from
four different inactive mill sites (Dr81). The results showed that thermal stabilization
was effective in preventing the release (emanation) of radon from tailings. The authors
note that before thermal stabilization can be considered as a practical disposal method,
information is needed on the following: (1) the long-term stability of the sintered
material; (2) the interactions of the tailings and the refractory materials lining a kiln;
(3) the gaseous and particulate emissions produced during sintering of tailings; and (4)
revised engineering and economic analysis as more information is developed.
Since gamma radiation is still present, protection against the misuse of sintered tailings
is required. While the potential health risk from external gamma radiation is not as
great as that from the radon decay products, it can produce unacceptably high exposure
levels in and around occupied buildings. Also, the potential for groundwater contami-
nation may require the use of liners in a disposal area.
5.1.6 Chemical Processing
The Los Alamos National Laboratory has also studied various chemical processes to
extract thorium-230 and radium-226 from the tailings, along with other minerals
(Wm81). After removal from the tailings, the thorium and radium can be concentrated
and fixed in a matrix such as asphalt or concrete. This greatly reduces the volume of
these hazardous materials and allows disposal with a higher degree of isolation that
economically achievable with tailings.
The major question regarding chemical extraction is whether it reduces the thorium and
radium values in the stripped tailings to safe levels. If processing efficiencies of 80
percent to 90 percent were attained, radium concentrations in tailings would still be in
the 30 to 60 pCi/g range. Thus, careful disposal of the stripped tailings would still be
required to prevent misuse. Another disadvantage of chemical processing is the cost,
although some of the costs might be recovered from the sale of other minerals
recovered in the processing (Th81).
92
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5.1.7 Soil Cement Covers
A mixture of soil and Portland cement, called soil cement, is widely used for stabilizing
and conditioning soils (PC79). The aggregate sizes of tailings appear suitable for soil
cement, which is relatively tough, withstands freeze/thaw cycles, and has a compres-
sive strength of 300 to 800 psi. When combined in a disposal system with a 1-meter
earth cover over it, soil (tailings) cement would likely provide reasonable resistance to
erosion and intrusion, substantially reduce radon releases, and shield against penetrating
radiation. Its costs are expected to be comparable to those of thick earth covers. The
long-term performance of soil cement is unknown, especially as tailings piles shift or
subside with age. Also, soil cement cracks at intervals when placed over large surface
areas. The importance of this cracking on the effectiveness of soil cement has not been
evaluated, but is expected to be small.
5.1.8 Deep-Mine Disposal
Disposal of tailings in worked-out deep mines offers several advantages and disad-
vantages compared to surface disposal options. The probability of intrusion into and
misuse of tailings in a deep mine is much less than that achievable with surface
disposal. Radon releases to the atmosphere would be eliminated, for practical purposes,
as would erosion and external radiation. Overall, this method is costly, provides a
relatively high level of protection from 85 percent of the radioactivity in the tailings,
but provides little protection from the remaining radioactivity and toxic materials
unless additional controls are used.
5.2 WORK PRACTICES FOR EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
At licensed mills, tailings impoundments may have reached capacity or be unused during
standby periods. To reduce radon-222 emissions, impoundments that will not be used
again could be covered with earthen material prior to mill decommissioning. For mills
that are on standby, a cover (soil or synthetic material) could be applied to dry-beach
areas and, in some cases, water cover could be maintained to reduce emissions.
The reduction of radon-222 emissions from active tailings impoundments depends on the
specific characteristics of the milling process and the impoundment. These charac-
93
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teristics include: layout and dike construction, dike height and stability, phreatic level
and permeability, type of milling process (acidic or alkali), plant water balance, pond
evaporation rates, and availability of suitable earth cover material. Operating factors
such as expected production rate, length and number of standby periods, pond capacity,
and expected mill life also affect the controls that could be selected.
At active impoundments, only those portions that are not to be used further could be
covered. Which portion and how much of the tailings area to cover is a function of
anticipated mill life and quantity of tailings, size of tailings pile, and level of tailings
(percent of capacity). In addition, a source of cover material must be obtained and a
technique must be developed for hauling, dumping, spreading and compacting the soil
onto the beach area. The limited access to the tailings area and the stability of the
dike may affect the size of the equipment that can be used to transport and spread the
cover material. Additional soil may have to be added to the dam or embankments to
decrease their slope and increase stability. Metal gratings or timbers may be required
to distribute vehicle wheel loads on the dike or dried beach area to facilitate the use of
earth moving equipment.
For existing tailings impoundments water cover is assumed not to be a feasible radon-
222 control strategy. The feasibility of water cover is limited because of the high
likelihood of groundwater contamination and dike stability and seepage. Also, during
extended standby periods maintaining the water cover will be difficult, especially in
arid areas. If water cover is to be practiced, the impoundment should be lined and
constructed to allow at least a 1-meter depth water cover with an overflow pipe leading
to an adjacent evaporation pond and/or recycling to the mill. To use water cover,
sufficient freeboard must be maintained to prevent overflow iand ground water
monitoring may be required.
5.3 WORK PRACTICES FOR NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
Tailings impoundments to be constructed in the future must, at minimum, meet current
Federal standards for prevention of groundwater contamination and airborne particulate
emissions. This baseline tailings impoundment will have synthetic or clay liners, will
probably be built below or partially below grade and have earthen dams or embankments
to facilitate decommissioning. A means for dewatering the tailings after the area is
fuU should also be incorporated. This conventional design allows the maintenance of a
94
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water cover over the tailings during the milling and standby periods thus maintaining a
very low level of radon-222 emissions. Dewatering of the tailings can be accelerated
using wells and or built-in drains. A clay or synthetic liner is placed along the sides and
bottom. Cover material may be added after the impoundment has reached capacity or
is not going to be used further and the tailings have dried. For the baseline model new
impoundment it is assumed that final cover will be added forty years after the tailings
have dried. Sensitivity to the assumption of the forty year dry period is evaluated in
the sensitivity analysis contained in Chapter 6. Three alternatives to the work
practices assumed in this baseline model new tailings impoundment are evaluated in this
analysis. These alternatives are discussed in the following sections.
5.3.1 Single Cell Impoundment With Immediate Cover
The first alternative work practice for new impoundments which was evaluated
consisted of the construction of the baseline single cell tailings impoundment with the
sole change being a requirement that the final cover is applied to the exposed tailings
as soon as they have dried. It is assumed that the tailings will be completely dried five
years after the impoundment has reached capacity. Because the baseline impoundment
requires a means for de water ing the tailings, five years is a reasonable time period for
drying.
5.3.2 Phased Disposal
The second alternative work practice which was evaluated for model new tailings
impoundments was phased disposal. In phased or multiple cell disposal, the tailings
impoundment area is partitioned into cells which are used independently of other cells.
After a cell has been filled, it can be dewatered and covered, and another cell used.
Tailings are pumped to one initial cell until it is full. Tailings are then pumped to a
newly constructed second cell and the former cell is dewatered and then left to dry.
After the first cell drys, it is covered with earth obtained from the construction of a
third cell. This process is continued sequentially. This system minimizes emissions at a
given time since a cell can be covered after use without interfering with operation as
opposed to the case of a single cell. Standby periods do not present a problem and
construction of new cells can easily be postponed. Less total surface area is thus
exposed at any one time. When the tailings impoundment has reached capacity, the
entire area is graded and eventually covered with soil to meet Federal requirements.
95
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Phased disposal is effective in reducing radon-222 emissions since tailings are initially
covered with water and finally with earth. Only during a drying-out period of about 5
years for each cell are there any radon-222 emissions from a relatively small area.
During mill standby periods, a water cover could be maintained on the operational cell.
For extended standby periods, the cell could be dewatered and a dirt or synthetic cover
applied.
5.3.3 Continuous Disposal
The third alternative work practice, continuous disposal, is based on the fact that
water can be removed from the tailings slurry prior to disposal. The relatively dry
dewatered (25 to 30% moisture) tailings can then be dumped and covered with soil
almost immediately. No extended drying phase is required and very little additional
work would be required during final closure per Federal requirements. Additionally,
ground water problems are minimized. To implement a dewatering system would
require added planning, design, and modification of current designs. Acid-based
leaching processes do not generally recycle water, and additional holding ponds with
ancillary piping and pumping systems would be required to handle the liquid removed
from the tailings. Using trucks or conveyor systems to transport the tailings to disposal
areas might also be more costly than slurry pumping. Thus, although tailings are more
easily managed after dewatering, this practice would have to be carefully considered on
a site-specific basis.
Various filtering systems such as rotary vacuum and belt filters are available and could
be adapted to a tailings dewatering system. Experimental studies would probably be
required for a specific ore to determine the filter media and dewatering properties of
the sand and slime fractions. Modifications to the typical mill ore grinding circuit may
be required to allow efficient dewatering and to prevent filter plugging or blinding.
Corrosion-resistant materials would be required in any tailings dewatering system due
to the highly corrosive solutions which must be handled. Continuous tailings dewatering
is not practiced at any uranium mills in the United States, but it was proposed at
several sites in the Southwestern and Eastern United States (Ma83). Tailings de-
watering systems have been used successfully at nonferrous ore beneficiation mills in
the United States and Canada (Ro78).
96
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REFERENCES
Dr81
Ma83
NRC80
Ro78
Ro81
St82
Th81
Wm81
Dreesen D.R., Williams J.M., and Cokal E. J., Thermal Stabilization of
Uranium Mill Tailings, in: Proceedings of the Fourth Symposium on
Uranimum Mill Tailings Management, Fort Collins, Colorado, October
1981.
Marline Uranium Corp. and Union Carbide Corp. An evaluation of
Uranium Development in Pittsylvania County, Virginia. October 15, 1983.
Section E.3.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Final Generic Environmental Impact
Statement on Uranium Milling, NUREG-0706, September 1980.
Robinsky, E.I., Tailing disposal by the Thickened Discharge Method for
Improved Economy and Environmental Control, in: Volume 2, Proceedings
of the Second International Tailing Symposium, Denver, Colorado, May
1978.
Rogers V. C., and Nielson K. K., A. Handbook for the Determination of
Radon-222 Attenuation Through Cover Materials, NUREG/CR-2340,
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C., December 1981.
Strong K.P. and Levins D. M., Effect of Moisture Content on Radon
Emanation from Uranium Ore and Tailings, Health Physics, 42, 27-32,
January 1982.
Thode, E.F. and Dreesen D.R., Technico-Economic Analysis of Uranium
Mill Tailings Conditioning Alternatives, in: Proceedings of the Fourth
Symposium on Uranium Mill Tailings Management, Fort Collins, Colorado,
October 1981.
Williams J.M., Cokal E. J., and Dreesen D. R., Removal of Radioactivity
and Mineral Values from Uranium Mill Tailings, in: Proceedings of the
Fourth Symposium on Uranium Mill Tailings Management, For Collins,
Colorado, October 1981.
97
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CHAPTER 6;
BENEFITS AND COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
This chapter provides an overview of the benefits and costs of the alternative work
practices introduced in the preceding chapter. Costs are estimated as the sum of direct
and indirect costs. Direct costs are based on conventional engineering estimates for
excavation, hauling, grading, etc. Indirect costs, which are estimated as 32 percent of
direct costs, are assumed to include the costs of engineering design, permit costs,
subcontractor's fees, and a contingency. Benefits are provided in terms of levels (or
reductions in levels) of emissions and total cancers which result from the various work
practices.
The costs of the various alternative work practices are discussed in the first section of
the chapter while the benefits are discussed separately in the second section. Within
each section work practices applicable to new model tailings impoundments are
discussed first and work practices employed at existing tailings impoundments are
discussed second. Total costs and benefits under various regulatory alternatives given
the reference case assumptions are presented in the third section. Sensitivity of the
estimated total costs and benefits to changes in the reference case set of assumptions
is examined in the final section of this chapter.
6.1 COST OF ALTERNATIVE PRACTICES
6.1.1 New Model Tailings Impoundments
The estimated costs of the three alternative types of model new tailings impoundments
(single cell, phased disposal, and continuous disposal) for below-grade and partially-
below-grade design are provided in Exhibits 6-1 and 6-2. Below grade model new tailings
impoundments were evaluate in this analysis because they are recommended under
current Federal regulations. All costs are given in 1985 dollars. Estimates are given
separately for each direct cost component (i.e., excavation). An indirect cost
component, estimated as 32 percent of direct cost is added in to provide total cost.
Direct costs at all three types of new model impoundments include components for
excavation, synthetic liners, grading 3 meters of cover, and 0.5 meters of gravel cap.
The single cell and phased disposal impoundments also include costs for a drainage
system. The continuous disposal impoundment does not require a drainage system as
the tailings are dry prior to being placed in the impoundment. In addition, the phased
98
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EXHIBIT 6-1
ESTIMATED COSTS OF BELOW-GRADE MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS^/
(Millions of 1985 Dollars)
Item
Excavation
Synthetic liner
(30 mil)
Grading
Drainage system
Cover(3 m)
Gravel cap
(0.5 m)
Evaporation pond
Vacuum filter
Subtotal direct
cost
Indirect cost-
Total cost
Single Cell
Impoundment
21.51
3.03
0.40
0.40
4.05
1.92
-
-
31.31
10.02
41.33
Phased
Each Cell
3.68
0.57
0.07
0.07
0.76
0.37
0.52
-
6.04
1.93
7.97
Disposal
All Cells-7
22.08
3.40
0.45
0.40
4.57
2.21
3.09
-
36.20
11.58
47.78
Continuous
Disposal
22.75
3.82
0.51
-
5.15
2.54
4.80
1.46
41.03
13.13
54.16
a/Below-grade impoundments are constructed so that the top of the final cover is at
grade.
-'Indirect costs including design, engineering, management, planning contingencies, etc.
are estimated to be 32 percent of direct costs.
-Six cells of 20 acres are assumed.
99
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EXHIBIT 6-2
ESTIMATED COSTS OF PARTIALLY BELOW-GRADE MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS^
(Millions of 1985 Dollars)
Item
Excavation
Synthetic liner
Single Cell
Impoundment
8.14
3.03
Phased
Each Cell
1.28
0.57
disposal
All Cells-7
7.70
3.40
Continuous
Disposal
8.14
3.03
(30 mil)
Grading
Drainage system
Dam construction
Cover (3 m)
Rip-rap on slopes
(0.5 m)
Gravel cap
(0.5 m)
Evaporation pond
Vacuum filter
Subtotal direct
cost
Indirect cost-
Total cost
0.40
0.40
2.75
4.05
1.74
0.07
0.07
1.27
0.76
0.32
1.99
22.5
7.21
29.7
0.39
0.52
5.25
1.68
6.93
0.45
0.40
7.61
4.57
1.91
0.40
-
2.75
4.05
1.74
2.34
3.09
31.47
10.07
41.54
1.99
4.80
1.46
28.36
9.08
37.44
a/
- Partially below-grade impoundments are constructed so that tailings are half below and
half above grade. Slopes of dams are 5:1 (h.v.). Earth for dam construction and cover
is taken from impoundment excavation and borrow-pits when necessary.
- Indirect costs including design, engineering, management, planning contingencies, etc.
are estimated to be 32 percent of direct costs.
c/
- Six cells of 20 acres are assumed.
100
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and continuous impoundments include an evaporation pond cost component and the
continuous impoundment a vacuum filter cost component.
The phased and continuous disposal practices b'mit airborne radon-222 emisions by
reducing the area of exposed dry tailings during operations and by providing the
opportunity for covering substantial portions of the tailings earlier than would occur
using current disposal practices. The total real resource cost for the proposed work
practices are somewhat higher than for traditional methods of disposal, and these costs
are expended more uniformly over the operating life of the impoundments. By
comparison, the current large impoundment method of disposal requires large up-front
costs for excavation and large rear-end costs for final stabilization. Estimated real
1985 dollar costs for below grade disposal at the model new impoundment are shown in
Exhibit 6-3. In this e hibit, costs for each technology are separated into five-year
periods, with period 1 beginning in the current year. The impoundment is active during
periods 1, 2 and 3. Period 4 represents a 5-year drying period for single cell and phased
disposal. The fifth period is required for final stabilization. Real resource cost streams
for each alternative were estimated for entirely below-grade impoundments. The
present value columns of the exhibit show the sum (undiscounted) and the present value
of the cost streams using a 5 percent or 10 percent real rate of discount. For purposes
of calculating the present values, all costs were treated as occurring at the beginning of
the appropriate 5-year period; i.e., period 1 costs are treated as current costs and
period 5 costs are incurred 20 years from the present time. Undiscounted costs for
phased and continuous disposal exceed costs for the single cell impoundment method.
However the present values calculated at a 5 percent real discount rate show that
phased disposal is slightly less expensive than the single cell impoundment which is
chosen to be the baseline. At a 10 percent real discount rate, phased disposal is
significantly less expensive than the baseline. Continuous disposal, which costs
approximately $13 million more than the baseline impoundment with no discount, is only
$1.5 million more expensive at a 10 percent real discount rate.
This reduction in cost difference between the recommended and traditional disposal
methods at higher rates of discount is due to the delay in the timing of large
expenditures for excavation when a phased or continuous method of disposal is
employed. The effect is markedly more pronounced for entirely below-grade impound-
101
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Alternatives
EXHIBIT 6-3
CONSTRUCTION AND COVER COST STREAM AND PRESENT VALUE FOR ALTERNATIVE
MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS (BELOW-GRADE)-/
(Millions of 1985 Dollars)
Construction
and Cover Cost by Operating Period
Years from Start of Operations
Present Value of-7
Construction and Cover
Cost at Various Discount Rates
Discount
Single Cell
Impoundment
Phased
Disposal
Continuous
Disposal
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24
33.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.88
12.96 14.45 15.95 2.98 1.49
18.04 18.04 18.04 0.00 0.00
0% 5% 10%
41.33 36.42 34.62
47.84 36.07 29.02
54.13 43.26 36.21
a/ A limited amount of operation and maintenance cost would also be anticipated during impoundment
life but these costs are small, when compared with construction and cover costs.
b/ Costs are assumed to occur at beginning of five-year period.
-------
ments, since in this case the baseline impoundment has a higher share of front-loaded
excavation costs than in the partially below-grade case. Further refinement of the cost
stream to annual expenditures would further reduce the differences in present value
cost.
6.1.2 Existing Tailings Impoundments
For existing tailing impoundments two work- practices were evaluated: final cover and
interim cover. Water management or water cover was not evaluated because most
existing piles were not of proper design for this work practice. Most notable is the lack
of liners at all but three of the existing impoundments. Use of water management in
the absence of liners would most likely result in unacceptable groundwater contamina-
tion risks.
The cost of a final cover was evaluated for each existing tailings impoundment, with
the exception of evaporation ponds. Tailings in the evaporation ponds are assumed to
be excavated and move to one of the primary tailings piles at the site. Final cover is
assumed to be a dirt covering of the depth required to reduce emissions to 20
2
pCi/m -sec.
Exhibit 6-4 provides the cost of final cover for each existing tailings pile in 1985
dollars. For each pile, Exhibit 6-4 provides background information on the type of pile,
status of the pile, total acres in the pile, and depth of final cover required to meet the
2
standard of 20 pCi/m -sec. Direct costs for final cover are presented separately for
gradine slopes, covering the pile to the specified depth, placing gravel and rip-rap to
prevent errosion, tampering etc., reclaiming borrow pits, excavating evaporation ponds
(for evaporation ponds only). Indirect costs are estimated at 32 percent of direct costs
and are added to direct costs to provide total cost.
In addition, an interim cover of one meter depth was evaluated using various
assumptions concerning which areas of the piles (i.e. dry versus wet areas) would be
covered. Interim cover is assumed to be a simple one meter dirt cover whose cost
varies in direct portion to the area of the pile which is to be covered. The cost of
interim cover includes components for excavation, hauling, etc. expressed in terms of a
cost per unit of area. A factor of 32 percent for indirect costs is included. The total
costs of the alternative interim cover strategies are shown in Exhibit 6-5 in 1985
103
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EXHIBIT 6-4
COSTS OF FINAL COVER OPTION ON EXISTING PILES ($M.1985)
a/ b/
Site/ Pile
Type
of
Statue
of
Pi*
Total
area.ec
Depth
of final
cover .m
Grabs 1 Cover to j Gravel*
slopes |20DC1/m2si rlo-rao
Reclaim
borrow pit
Excavate
evaooonds
Total
direct 1 Indirect I Total
cost lcosts.32Sl cost
Colorado
Cotter Corp.
Primary
Secondary
Umetco
Pile 1*2
Pile 3
Sludge pile
Evap. pond
NOT n« too
Sohto
L-Bar
Untied Nuclear
Churchrock
Anaconda
Blueweter 1
8luewatar2
BluewaterS
Evap. ponds
Kerr-McGee
Oulvtra 1
Quivtra 2a
Oulvtra 2b
Ouivtra 2c
Evap. ponds
Homestake
Homestakel
Homestake 2
Texas
Chevron
Pan na Mar la
Utah
Umetco
White Mesa
White Mesa
white Meae
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
it
2
2
3
3
3
$
C
C
C
C
C
s
s
s
C
C
s
s
s
s
s
s
5
C
s
s
5
5
84
31
66
32
20
17
128
148
239
47
24
162
269
105
28
30
372
205
44
124
48
61
53
3.8
3.8
3.3 1.88
3.3 0.82
3.3 0.1
3.4 0.46
2.8 0.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6 0.85
3.6 0.53
3.6 0.01
3.6 0.01
3.1 1.4
3.1
2.4
3.0
3.0
3.0
9.12
3.37
15.40
6.04
1.88
14.50
13.40
24.32
4.78
2.44
34.30
12.74
2.85
3.05
36.50
3.86
8.39
4.07
5.17
4.50
1.47
0.54
8.33
3.18
0.35
4.43
4.72
4.18
0.82
0.42
10.20
3.88
0.49
0.52
18.36
0.77
2.17
0.84
1.07
0.93
0.40
0.17
0.65
0.28
0.11
0.61
0.57
0.98
0.23
0.13
1.35
0.54
0.15
0.16
1.43
0.19
0.38
0.20
0.25
0.22
0.48
4.59
10.54
10.99
4.08
26.26
10.32
2.44
0.48
20.00
19.19
29.48
5.84
2.99
4.59
46.70
17.69
3.50
3.75
10.54
57.69
4.8Z
3.52
1.31
8.40
3.30
0.78
0.15
6.40
6.14
9.43
1.87
0.96
1.47
14.94
5.66
1.12
1.20
3.37
18.46
1.54
14.51
5.39
34.66
13.62
3.22
0.64
26.40
25.33
38.91
7.70
3.95
6.06
61.64
2335
4.62
4.95
13.91
76 IS
6.36
10.93 3.50 14.43
5.11
6.49
5.64
1.64
2.08
1.81
6.75
8.56
7.45
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CJl
EXHIBIT 6-4(cont.)
COSTS OF FINAL COVER OPTIONS ON EXISTING PILES ($M.1985)
a/ b/
Site/ Pile
Type
of
piH
Status
or
otto
Total
are. ac
Depth
of final
cover jn
OradB 1 Cover to 1 Gravel*! Reclaim
slooes 120 oC1/m2si rlo-raa 1 borrow olt
Excavate
evao ponds
Total
direct 1 Indirect 1 Total
cost lootts.32>l cost
RuAlgom
Rtol
Rto2
Atlas
hood
Plateau Res
Shootarlng
Washington
Dawn Mining
Ford 1 ,2.3
Ford 4
Western Nuclear
Sherwood
tvap. pond
Wvonliw
Pathfinder
Gas Him 1
Gas Hills 2
Cos Hills 3
Gas Him 4
Wostarn Nuclear
Split Rock
Umetoo
E. Gas Hllte
A-9 Pit
Leach pad
Evappond)
2
2
1
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
A
A
5
S
C
5
$
5
S
C
S
$
$
C
S
S
S
44
32
147
7
95
26
94
16
124
54
22
89
156
151
25
22
20
3.5
3.5
3.4
2.8
39
3.9
2.4
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.9
4.34
3.16
1.1 24.10
0.55
10.56
3.11
6.41
11.19
4.87
1.98
8.03
14.18
12.26
2.03
1.79
0.77
0.56
10.29
0.12
1.66
0.49
1.64
2.17
0.94
0.38
1.56
2.73
2.64
0.44
0.38
0.21
0.16
1.00
0.04
0.46
0.16
0.30
0.48
0.23
0.11
0.36
0.60
0.53
0.1 1
0.10
5.33
3.88
36.49
0.71
12.68
3.76
8.35
0.45 0.45
13.64
6.05
2.48
9.95
17.51
15.43
2.58
2.27
0.57 0.57
1.70
1.24
11.66
0.23
4.06
1.20
2.67
0.15
4.43
1.94
0.79
3.18
5.60
494
0.83
0.73
0.16
7.03
5.13
48.17
0.94
16.73
497
11.03
0.60
18.27
799
3.26
13.13
23.11
20.37
341
3.00
0.75
Rocky Mountain Energy
Bear Creek
Pathfinder
Shirley Basin
Minerals Exp.
Sweatwater
TOTALS
2
2
2
S
A
*
121
261
37
3602
3.2
3.4
28
10.92
25.49
2.89
7.7 359
2.12
4.56
0.65
102
0.47
1.02
0.15
16
13.51
31.08
3.69
17 500
4.32
9.94
1.18
160
17.83
41.02
467
660
Note: Dams constructed of tailings are graded to a 5h: Iv slope, 0.45m of gravel is applied to the tops of all
impoundments and 0.45m of rip-rap is applied to the slopes of dams constructed of tailings. Cover material is
excavated on site, borrow pit is reclaimed. Evaporation ponds are excavated and material placed on tailings
impoundment before cover.
- Type of Impoundment: 1 = dam constructed of coarse tailings; 2 = earthen dam; 3 = below grade.
- Statin of impoundment: A = active; S = standby (will be used when operations resume); C = filled to capacity (will not be
used again).
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EXHIBIT 6-5:
COST OF INTERIM COVER OPTIONS ON EXISTING PILES
(Millions
Company
State Name
Colorado Cotter Corp.
Umetco
New Mexico Sohio
United Nuclear
Anaconda
Kerr-McGee
Homestake
Texas Chevron
Utah Umetco
Rio Algom
Atlas
Plateau Res.
Washington Dawn Mining
Western Nuclear
Wyoming Pathfinder
Western Nuclear
Umetco
Rock Mt. Energy
Pathfinder
Minerals Exp.
U.S. Total-/
of 1985 Dollars)
Pile
Name
Primary
Secondary
Pile 1&2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Quivira 1
Quivira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Panna Maria
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Rio 1
Rio 2
Moab
Shootaring
Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Split Rock
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Bear Creek
Shirley Basin
Sweetwater
Cost
Berm
Area
Only
0.00
0.00
1.68
0.63
0.00
0.00
0.59
0.98
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.43
0.55
0.15
0.15
0.00
3.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.50
of Interim Cover
Berm and
Current Dry
Areas
0.15
1.12
2.32
1.08
0.71
0.55
1.68
2.43
8.94
1.76
0.90
1.80
7.14
2.24
0.94
0.98
3.55
4.08
1.35
1.35
1.27
1.68
0.53
1.43
0.55
3.37
0.04
3.55
0.41
2.61
0.00
4.45
1.49
0.08
0.41
1.61
5.65
0.53
0.82
0.00
1.98
2.24
0.26
80.03
All
Areas-
3.14
1.16
2.47
1.20
0.75
0.63
4.79
5.53
8.94
1.76
0.90
6.06
10.06
3.92
1.04
1.12
13.91
7.67
1.65
4.63
1.80
2.28
1.98
1.65
1.20
5.49
0.26
3.55
1.04
3.51
0.59
4.63
2.02
0.82
3.33
5.83
5.65
0.94
0.82
0.75
4.53
9.75
1.39
145.14
a/ Assumes the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry out.
b/ Totals may not agree due to rounding
106
-------
dollars. Costs are given separately for: (1) covering the berm area (i.e. any dam
constructed with tailings); (2) for covering both the berm area (if any) and other dry
portions of the tailings pile; and (3) for covering the entire pile (assuming that currently
wet areas of the pile have had time to dry).
6.2 BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
6.2.1 New Model Tailings Impoundments
The radon-222 emissions from model new tailings impoundments are summarized in
Exhibit 6-6. Operational emissions are given on a yearly basis for the 15 years active
period, the 5 year dry out period, and as an average for the entire 20 year period. Post-
operational emissions are also given on a yearly basis for each pile type. These yearly
emissions are then summed to provide estimates of total emissions for each pile type
over 20 years, 40 years and 60 years. Exhibit 6-7 provides the total number of fatal
cancers which will occur over 20, 40 and 60 years as a result of the radon-222 emissions
estimated in Exhibit 6-6. Exhibit 6-7 also provides the number of fatal cancers which
will be avoided over 20, 40 and 60 years as a result of using an impoundment strategy
other than a single cell impoundment with no required final cover.
6.2.2 Existing Tailings Impoundments
The radon-222 emission levels given various work practices were estimated for each
existing tailings pile and are presented in an annual basis in Exhibit 6-8. The resulting
estimated fatal cancers per year which will result from these emissions were also
calculated and are presented in Exhibit 6-9. Emissions and fatal cancers are provided
for current conditions, assuming that the piles have had time to dry, assuming that a
one meter dirt cover has been placed on tailing sand berms (without drying), assuming
that a one meter dirt cover has been placed on all currently dry portions of the piles,
assuming that a one meter interim cover has been placed over the entire pile (assuming
the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry), and assuming that the piles have
2
received a final cover of depth required to reduce emission to 20 pCi/m -sec.
It should be noted that when interim cover is applied to the dry portions of an
impoundment with wet or ponded areas, emissions (and fatal cancers) will rise as the
currently wet areas dry. The emissions (or fatal cancers) which will be incurred after
107
-------
EXHIBIT 6-6
o
oo
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM MODEL
1.
2.
3.
4.
Alternative
Single cell
c/
Impoundment-
Phased
disposal
Continuous
disposal
No action
(single cell
without cover)
a/
Operational Emissions (kCi/y)-
Active Dry Out
Years Years
0-15 16-20 Average
0.8 2.5 1.2
NA NA 0.7-/
NA NA 0.5-/
0.8 2.5 1.2
Post -Operational
a/
Emissions (kCi/y)-
With
Final
Uncovered Cover-
NA 0.3
NA 0.3
NA 0.3
4.2 NA
NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
Total Emissions (kCi)
20 40 60
years years years
24 30 36
14 20 26
9 15 21
24 110 190
NA - not applicable
2
a/ Emission estimates based on a flux of 1 pCi/m -sec per pCi radium-226 per g tailings and a
radium-226 concentration of 280 pCi/g
2
b/ Final cover to meet 20 pCi/m -sec standard
c/ Assumes 20% of the impoundment area is dry beach during the 15-year active life, remainder is
water covered.
d/ Based on 20-year life, 15-year active, and 5-year dry out.
e/ Based on
-------
EXHIBIT 6-7:
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS AND FATAL CANCERS AVOIDED
DUE TO MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
a
Fatal Cancers
20 Years 40 Years
60 Years
Fatal Cancers Avoided
20 Years 40 Years
60 Years
No Action — Single Cell
Impoundment
(without final cover)
0.5
to
Alternative 1 — Single Cell
Impoundment
(with final cover
after 20 years)
0.5
0.6
0.7
Alternative 2 — Phased
Disposal
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.2
Alternative 3
Continuous
Disposal
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.3
Differences may not add due to rounding.
'Fatal cancers avoided by choosing alternative diposal technology over the conventional single cell impoundment.
-------
EXHIBIT 6-8:
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS GIVEN VARIOUS COVERS
RADON-222 Emissions (kei/y)
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Texas
Utah
Washington
Wyoming
ANNUAL
U.S. TOTAL
Company
Name
Cotter Corp
Umetco
Sohio
United Nuclear
Anaconda
Kerr-McGee
Homestake
Chevron
Umetco
Rio Algom
Atlas
Plateau Res.
Dawn Mining
Western Nuclear
Pathfinder
Western Nuclear
Umetco
Rock Mt. Energy
Pathfinder
Minerals Exp.
Pile
Name
Primary
Secondary
Pile 1&2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Quivira 1
Qulvira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Panna Maria
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Riol
Rio 2
Moab
Shootaring
Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Split Rock
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Bear Creek
Shirley Basin
Sweetwater
1985
Conditions
0.4
3.0
3.8
1.8
1.2
0.9
2.9
2.4
18.9
3.7
1.9
3.8
15.1
4.7
2.0
2.1
7.5
5.4
1.8
0.9
1.5
2.0
0.6
2.7
1.1
6.2
0.0
10.3
0.0
1.8
0.0
6.4
2.1
0.1
0.6
2.4
6.0
0.6
0.9
0.0
2.8
4.1
0.2
136.6
All
Areas
Dry
With-
out
Covers
8.4
3.1
4.0
2.0
1.2
1.0
8.2
5.5
18.9
3.7
1.9
12.8
21.3
8.3
2.2
2.4
29.4
10.1
2.2
3.1
2.1
2.7
2.4
3.1
2.3
10.1
0.2
10.3
3.0
2.4
0.4
6.6
2.9
1.2
4.8
8.6
6.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
6.5
18.0
1.3
248.6
i
Interim Cover
On Berm
0.4
3.0
2.1
1.2
1.2
0.9
2.3
2.0
18.9
3.7
1.9
3.8
13.2
4.0
1.8
1.9
7.5
2.6
1.8
0.9
1.5
2.0
0.6
2.7
1.1
4.1
0.0
10.3
0.0
1.8
0.0
6.4
2.1
0.1
0.6
2.4
6.0
0.6
0.9
0.0
2.8
4.1
0.2
125.8
1
Interim Cover
On Berm and Dry
0.2
1.1
1.5
0.7
0.4
0.4
1.1
0.9
7.3
1.4
0.7
1.5
5.8
1.8
0.8
0.8
2.9
2.1
0.7
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.2
1.0
0.4
2.4
0.0
4.0
0.5
0.7
0.0
2.4
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.9
2.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
1.1
1.6
0.1
53.1
o
Interim Cover
On All Acres
3.2
1.2
1.5
0.8
0.5
0.4
3.1
2.1
7.3
1.4
0.7
4.9
8.2
3.2
0.8
0.9
11.3
3.9
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.0
0.9
1.2
0.9
3.9
0.1
4.0
1.2
0.9
0.2
2.5
1.1
4.6
1.8
3.3
2.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
2.5
6.9
0.5
103.4
•»
Final
Cover
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
—
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.1
—
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
—
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.7
0.1
8.8
Assumes current level of water cover.
Assumes the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry.
Assume* evaporation ponds are moved to main Impoundment at final i
-------
EXHIBIT 6-9:
SUMMARY OF YEARLY ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS FOR VARIOUS COVERS
ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS (COMMITTED CANCERS/Y)
State
Colorado
New Mexico
Texas
Utah
Washington
Wyoming
ANNUAL ,
u.s, TOTAL"
Company
Name
Cotter Corp
Umetco
Sohio
United Nucelar
Anaconda
Kerr-McGee
Homestake
Chevron
Umetco
Rio Algom
Atlas
Plateau Res.
Dawn Mining
Western Nuclear
Pathfinder
Western Nuclear
Umetco
Rock Mt. Energy
Pathfinder
Minerals Exp.
Pile
Name
Primary
Secondary
Pile I<5c2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Quivira 1
Quivira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Panna Maria
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Rio 1
Rio 2
Moab
Shootaring
Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Split Rock
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Bear Creek
Shirley Basin
Sweetwater
Current
Conditions
.01
.09
.07
.03
.02
.02
.08
.05
.4
.09
.04
.02
.3
.08
.04
.04
.1
.1
.05
.04
.02
.03
.008
.04
.02
.1
.0
.2
.0
.03
.0
.08
.03
.001
.007
.03
.07
.007
.01
.0
.04
.05
.002
2.45
Dry
.3
.1
.07
.04
.02
.02
.2
.1
.4
.09
.04
.3
.4
.1
.04
.04
.5
.3
.06
.1
.03
.04
.03
.04
.03
.2
.002
.2
.07
.05
.007
.08
.04
.02
.06
.1
.07
.01
.01
.01
.09
.2
.02
4.63
Interim Cover
On Berm
.01
.09
.04
.02
.02
.02
.06
.04
.4
.09
.04
.02
.2
.07
.03
.03
.1
.07
.05
.04
.02
.03
.008
.04
.02
.07
.0
.2
.0
.03
.0
.08
.03
.001
.007
.03
.07
.007
.01
.0
.04
.05
.002
2.19
Interim Cover
On Berm and Dry
.006
.03
.03
.01
.007
.007
.03
.02
.2
.03
.02
.03
.1
.03
.01
.01
.05
.06
.02
.01
.008
.01
.003
.01
.006
.04
.0
.09
.01
.01
.0
.03
.01
.0
.002
.01
.03
.002
.004
.0
.02
.02
.001
0.91
2
Interim Cover
On All Acres
.1
.04
.03
.01
.009
.007
.08
.04
.2
.03
.02
.1
.1
.05
.01
.02
.2
.1
.02
.05
.01
.01
.01
.02
.01
.07
.001
.09
.03
.02
.004
.03
.01
.06
.02
.04
.03
.005
.004
.004
.03
.09
.006
1.82
Final
Cover
.006
.003
.004
.002
.002
.008
.008
.01
.002
.002
.01
.005
.002
.002
.01
.003
.01
.001
.003
.001
.001
.001
.007
.000
.004
.002
.004
.004
.001
.001
.002
.005
.005
.001
.001
.004
.009
.001
0.15
Assumes current level of water cover.
o
Assumes the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry.
Totals may not agree due to independent rounding.
-------
the wet areas have dried may be calculated by subtracting emissions (or fatal cancers)
under current conditions from these under dry conditions and adding the result to the
emissions (or total cancers) previously calculated for berm or berm and dry interim
cover.
6.3 ESTIMATED TOTAL SOCIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS
OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
The work practices for disposal of uranium mill tailings described in the previous
chapter each act to reduce the future incidence rate of fatal lung cancers in the local
regions surrounding today's mill sites, in the local regions surrounding future mill sites,
and in a very large portion of the nation lying "downwind" of these mill sites due to the
four day half-life of radon-222. The economic and financial impacts of these
recommendations vary significantly, depending on the year selected for conversion to
the recommended practices, since the industry currently has a large amount of unused
tailings disposal capacity remaining in impoundments which do not comply with the new
requirements. Adoption of the recommended work practices will also result in a shift in
the timing of major expenditures required for excavation of new impoundments and for
the final stabilization of both new and existing impoundments. The disparate patterns
of costs and avoided fatalities resulting from each possible choice of recommended
work practice and year of introduction make it difficult to compare the possible
regulatory alternatives without the use of a detailed site-specific analysis.
For this analysis, the small number (43) of existing impoundments at currently licensed
mills permitted analysis of the impact of the possible regulatory alternatives at existing
mills using site-by-site data on estimated health effects and unit costs presented above
in Exhibits 6-8 and 6-9. For future production at new mill sites, cost and emissions data
for the model mill and impoundment discussed in the Background Information Document
were utilized. These were presented in Exhibit 6-1 and 6-6. In the baseline projections
to 2085 presented in Chapter 4, 85 model new mills and 85 impoundments are expected
to be constructed between the years 2000 and 2085 under the low domestic uranium
production scenario. As noted in Section 4.1, the alternative case of high domestic
production is also a reasonable forecast. This assumption is addressed in the sensitivity
analysis at the end of this chapter. Production requirements from now to 2000 are
assumed to be met with production from currently existing mills, all of which are
112
-------
assumed to cease operation by the end of this century. In this discussion total costs and
benefits estimates are presented separately for existing mills and impoundments and for
the 85 projected new impoundments at future mills.
6.3.1 Total Cost Estimates; Future Mills
The DOE low domestic uranium production forecast led to the projection that 85 new
mills and model new impoundments would be constructed between the years 2000 and
2085. Characteristics of the model mill and impoundment used for this analysis are
described in Background Information Document. The estimated total cost and present
value cost of the alternative work practices at the future model mill were presented in
Exhibits 6-1 through 6-3. For this analysis cost data for the entirely below-grade
impoundment is used. In a sensitivity analysis at the end of this chapter, total costs of
the alternative work practices for the partially below-grade impoundments are
examined.
The low production forecast, combined with the assumption that all existing mills cease
operations by the year 2000, leads to the projection that 11 model new mills are brought
on-line beginning in the year 2001. Small growth in demand thereafter implies the
addition of 2 or 3 new mills in each five year period through the year 2015. In the
period beginning with 2016, the original 11 model new mills are retired, in accordance
with the assumed 15-year life for the model future mill. In this period, 11 additional
model new mills must be constructed to replace these retirements, and again an
additional 2 or 3 mills are required to meet the small projected growth in demand. The
model for future mills therefore exhibits a 15-year periodicity which is somewhat
artificial, resulting from the assumption that all existing mills are retired by the year
2000. This periodicity will be evident in all results presented in this subsection.
The estimated post-2000 life-cycle cost estimates developed for the alternative work
practices at the 85 future impoundments are presented in Exhibits 6-10A, 6-10B, and 6-
10C. In these exhibits, total cost by period and cumulative costs are shown for the
baseline single-cell impoundment at the future mills, with a 40-year dry standby period.
Adoption of the "straw man" assumption that the baseline impoundment will not achieve
final stabilization until 40 years after drying is based on a desire to estimate the
relative magnitude of costs and benefits for all alternatives. Assuming a shorter period
before final stabilization , e.g., 20 years, results in lower cost and benefits estimates
113
-------
EXHIBIT 6-10A;
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
. __ i
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
(millions 1985 dollars)
WKRIOD
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-O5
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
3041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2O61-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85 (*)
post-2085
TOTAL
PV(ltf)
PV(5X)
PV(IOX)
baseli
TOTAL
0
O
O
268
33
33
301
67
67
334
67
10O
334
100
100
108
108
439
116
5O4
3513
1865
341
101
ne
CUMULATIVE
O
0
O
268
301
334
636
702
769
1104
1171
1271
1606
1706
1806
2237
2345
2454
2893
3OO9
3513
COVER
TOTAL
O
0
0
268
33
33
301
130
75
342
138
116
350
179
116
392
179
124
187
158
3513
1969
366
1O4
IN 5 YEARS
CUMULATIVE
O
O
O
268
301
334
636
765
840
1183
1320
1437
1787
1966
2082
2474
2653
2777
3168
3355
3513
added
TOTAL
0
O
O
0
O
O
O
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
cost
VE
0
0
0
O
0
O
0
63
71
79
150
165
181
260
276
236
307
323
276
347
0
1O5
26
3.5
<*)
Post-2085 costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
114
-------
EXHIBIT 6-10B:
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
PHASED DISPOSAL
(millions 1985 dollars)
PERIOD
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
20O1-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
3041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
post-2085
TOTAL
PV(1X)
PV(5X)
PV(IOX)
baseline
TOTAL CUMULATIVE
O 0
O O
O 0
(*)
268
33
33
301
67
67
334
67
10O
334
1OO
100
431
108
1O8
439
116
504
3513
1865
341
1O1
268
301
334
636
702
769
11O4
1171
1271
1606
17O6
1806
2237
2345
2454
2893
3009
3513
PHASED
TOTAL
O
0
O
1O4
129
155
171
187
2O3
219
238
252
254
268
270
271
271
271
347
4066
2218
363
87
DISPOSAL
CUMULATIVE
O
O
O
1O4
232
387
558
745
948
1167
1388
1625
1862
2114
2368
2636
2906
3177
3448
3719
4066
added cost
TOTAL CUMULATIVE
0 0
O 0
O
-164
95
122
-130
12O
136
-116
155
136
-97
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
•157
553
353
0
-164
-69
53
-77
43
179
63
218
354
257
409
562
399
560
723
555
71O
553
-13
(*)
Post-2085 costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
115
-------
EXHIBIT 6-1 PC;
COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
(millions 1985 doUars)
baseline
PERIOD
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2O21-25
2O26-30
2O31-35
2036-40
3041-45
2O46-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2O81-85
post-2085
TOTAL
0
0
0
268
33
33
301
67
67
334
67
1OO
334
1OO
1OO
431
108
1O8
439
(*) 116
1 504
CUMULATIVE
0
0
0
268
301
334
636
702
769
1104
1171
1271
16O6
1706
1806
2237
2345
2454
2893
3009
3513
CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL added cost
TOTAL
0
0
0
144
163
181
199
217
235
253
253
271
271
289
289
307
307
307
307
307
307
CUMULATIVE
0
0
O
144
307
488
686
903
1138
1390
1643
1914
2185
2474
2763
3070
3377
3684
3991
4298
4605
TOTAL
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
CUMULATIVE
0
0
0
-123
6
153
51
200
368
287
473
643
579
768
957
833
1O31
1230
1098
1289
1092
TOTAL
PV(1X)
PV(5X)
PV(IOX)
3513
1865
341
101
4605
2546
435
1O9
1092
681
95
8.3
(*)
Post-2085 costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
116
116
-------
for all alternatives at both new and existing impoundments, however the relative costs
and benefits do not change substantially. (See Section 6.4.)
The total additional real resource cost stream for the alternative work practices are
obtained by subtracting the baseline life-cycle cost stream from the life-cycle cost
stream under the alternative work practice, yielding the net additional cost of the
alternative. This quantity is labeled in the exhibits as the added cost of the alternative.
Present values of each cost stream are shown at the bottom of each column. The
present value costs are calculated in 1985 dollars, assuming that all costs in a five-year
period are expended at the beginning of the period. The added present value cost of
each alternative is small, due to the large time span between the present time and the
beginning of operation of the first new model mills in the year 2000.
The total life-cycle cost of the single impoundment option, with final cover five years
after filling, are identical to the costs for the baseline, which assumes the same
disposal system but with cover 40 years later. Although total added costs for this
alternative sum to zero over the time frame selected for analysis, the present values of
the added cost stream for this alternative are positive. This reflects the lost
opportunity value associated with the earlier time of final stabilization.
The costs for the phased disposal option shown in Exhibit 6-1 OB has total life-cycle
costs which are approximately 15 percent higher than for the baseline impoundment.
But a large portion of excavation costs are incurred later in time for each mill, due to
the more uniform pattern of expenses for the phased disposal shown in Exhibit 6-3. This
timing advantage for phased disposal reduces the difference in costs when present
values are calculated. At a 5 percent discount rate, life-cycle costs for phased disposal
are approximately equal to those for the baseline. At a 10 percent discount rate, the
present value cost of phased disposal is less than that for the baseline.
The total life-cycle costs for the continuous disposal option shown in Exhibit 6-1OC are
higher than for the baseline impoundment. Continuous disposal also has a timing
advantage in the delayed expenditure of funds for excavation costs. Hence the cost
difference between continuous disposal and the baseline method also decreases at
higher discount rates. At a 1 percent discount the total life-cycle cost streams differ
117
-------
by 37 percent; at a 5 percent discount the difference is 28 percent; and at 10 percent,
only 8 percent.
Graphs of the total added cost streams for each alternative are shown in Exhibits 6-
11A, 6-11B, and 6-11C. These cost streams exhibit the 15 year periodicity in the
pattern of positive added costs and negative added costs shown in each graph. As noted
above, the periodicity is somewhat artificial. However the graphs clearly show that
large cost savings resulting from delayed excavation costs are followed by positive
added costs later during the life-cycle of each new mill. Similar periodicity is evident
in the cumulative cost graphs.
The present values of the estimated added life-cycle cost streams for each alternative
work practice at future uranium mills are summarized in Exhibit 6-12. In this exhibit
the present value cost at a 5 percent and 10 percent discount rate for the baseline
disposal method are compared to the present value cost of each alternative. The added
cost for each alternative and the percent increase in present value cost are also
presented.
6.3.2 Total Benefits Estimates: Future Mills
The estimated benefits of each alternative work practice option at existing mill sites
are calculated using site-specific health-effects factors computed using EPA-AIRDOS,
based on the site-specific emissions estimates and local populations. This procedure is
documented in the Background Information Document and is summarized in Section 6.2
above. The benefits estimates for existing mills are discussed at the end of this
section. For future mills, the location of future impoundments with respect to local
populations surrounding the sites not currently known. For this analysis, health effects
estimates were generated for the 0-5 kilometer local area and the 5-80 kilometers local
region by using the average number of health effects per curie released at all existing
mill sites for each respective region. This procedure is based on the assumption that
future mills will be located in rural and remote areas as are the majority of today's
existing mill sites. National health effects were estimated using the same procedure as
for existing mills, also based on an average number of health effects per curie released.
The above assumptions lead to the following health-effect factors for new mills:
-4
• 0-5 Km: 8.26 x 10 fatal lung cancers per kilocurie,
118
-------
EXHIBIT 6-11 A;
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
JDO
NEW PILE COSTS-COVER IN FIVE YEARS
RVE YEAR TOTALS AND POST-2DB6 TOTAL
SCO -
100 -
-JDO-
-300 -
z
-400 -H r
1900
2O10 2O3O 206O
ENWNO YEAR FDft PERIOD
2O7O
pMt-ZOBS
900
OUMUATW COSTS W PERIOD
-100 -
119
-------
EXHIBIT 6-1 IB:
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL
NEW PILE COSTS-PHASED DISPOSAL
FNE YEAR TOTAL AMD POST-aoM TOTAL
•
I
300 -
300 -
100 -
^oo -
-200 -
1
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EMOMO YEAR FDA PBBOO
2O7O
OUMULATNE COSTS BT KROD
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2010 2O3O 20SO
EMOMO YEU) FDA PEMOO
2070
120
-------
EXHIBIT 6-11C;
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
NEW PILE COSTS-CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
FIVE WAR TOTALS AND POST-2M6 TOTAL
1WO
2O10 2O30 2060
ENDMO YEAR FOR PEJBOD
JUU -
200 -
2
* 100-
1
I
• -100 -
8
-200-
-300 -
t
mf/1
\\X\N
XXXXN
I
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7;
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2O7O
OUMULATDC COSTS 91 PfOOD
I
1WO
aoio
2030
121
-------
EXHIBIT 6-12;
PRESENT VALUE COST OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
(millions of 1985 dollars)
Alternative Work Practice
For New Impoundments
1. Baseline impoundments
covered in 5 years
2. Phased disposal
3. Continuous disposal
Baseline impoundment
covered in 40 years
5 Percent Discount Rate
Cost of
Alternative
366
363
535
341
Added Cost
(%)
26
(7%)
22
(6%)
95
(28%)
—
10 Percent Discount Rate
Cost of
Alternative
104
87
109
101
Added Cost
(%)
3.5
(3%)
-13
(-13%)
8.3
(9%)
—
to
to
-------
3
• 5-80 Km: 6.13x10 fatal lung cancers per kilocurie, and
_o
• Rest of Nation: 1.20 x 10 fatal lung cancers per kilocurie.
Estimated benefits for the alternative work practices at the 85 new model mills
projected to be on-line in the years 2000 to 2085 are presented in Exhibits 6-13A, 6-
13B, and 6-13C. In these exhibits, baseline fatal lung cancers and avoided lung cancers
for each alternative are shown for the local, regional and national regions and in total
for each of the five-year periods. Total health effects over the 85 year period are
listed at the bottom of each column. The benefits and cumulative benefits at future
mill sites are graphed for each alternative in Exhibits 6-14A, 6-14B, and 6-14C.
A summary of Exhibits 6-13 is contained in Exhibit 6-15. Examination of this exhibit
shows that all three alternative new impoundment work practices result in substantial
benefits when compared to the baseline. The percent of avoided fatalities for each
region is identical, due to the use of the health-effects-per-Curie-released factors
discussed above. For each alternative, the percent of avoided baseline fatal cancers is
between 80 percent and 90 percent.
6.3.3 Total Cost Estimates; Existing Mills
Estimates of the total cost of the alternatives at existing licensed mill sites are derived
by comparing the baseline disposal cost stream with the cost stream required for
disposal under each alternative. The additional real resource cost resulting from each
alternative is obtained by subtracting baseline cost from the cost of the alternative in
each time period, then taking the present value of the stream of additional costs.
Three types of cost may be incurred: opportunity cost associated with moving up the
time of final cover expenses, replacement costs for disposal in new impoundments, and
interim cover costs to the extent these costs are not recoverable at the time of final
stabilization.
For existing impoundments, construction costs are considered as sunk costs, and only
the cost of final stabilization is considered. The timing of this cost will be affected by
the proposed regulations, resulting in earlier final stabilization. In our model, we
assume that currently existing Federal regulations will require final stabilization of
existing impoundments within 5 years after the mill is required to go to new disposal
methods at new impoundments.
123
-------
EXHIBIT 6-13A;
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
(committed fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
COVER IN 5 YEARS
PERIOD
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2O11-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2O31-35
2O36-4O
2O41-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
poBt-2085
O.O
O.O
O.O
0.0
O. 0
0.0
0. 1
0. 2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
O.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
O.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
6.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0. 2
0. 2
0.9
1.4
1.6
2.3
2.9
3.2
4.1
4.8
5.1
5.1
5.7
6. O
5.9
6.5
44.6
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
1.7
2.7
3.0
4.5
5.8
6.3
8.0
9.4
10.0
10.0
11.3
11.8
11.6
12.7
87.3
O.O
O. 0
0.0
0.6
0.7
0.8
2.7
4.3
4.8
7.2
9.1
1O. 0
12.7
14.8
15.9
15.8
17.8
18.6
18.4
20.1
137.9
O.O
O. O
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
O. 1
O. 1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.7
5.4
O.O
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
O.O
0.0
1. O
1.1
1.2
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.9
4.2
3.6
4.7
4.9
4.2
5-3
39.8
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. O
O.O
O. O
0.0
1. 9
2.1
2.3
4.4
4.9
5.4
7. 7
8.2
7- 0
9.1
9.6
8.2
1O. 3
77.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3-3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.5
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12. 9
^ •• • 9
16.3
123. 1
TOTAL
13.6 100.8 197.6
312.0
11.0 81.2 159.1
251.3
124
-------
EXHIBIT 6-13B;
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL
(committed fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
PHASED DISPOSAL
PERIOD
REST OF
O-5KM 5-8OKM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
post-2085
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. O
0.0
0.0
0. 1
0.2
O. 2
0.3
0.4
0.4
O. 6
O. 6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0. 8
O.8
0.9
6.0
0
0
0
O
0
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
4
4
5
5
5
6
5
6
44
.O
.0
.0
.2
.2
.2
.9
.4
.6
• 3
.9
.2
. 1
.8
. 1
. 1
.7
. 0
.9
.5
.6
0.0
0. 0
O.O
0.4
0.4
0.5
1.7
2.7
3.0
4.5
5-8
6.3
8.0
9.4
10.0
10. O
11.3
11. 8
11.6
12.7
87.3
0
O
O
O
O
O
2
4
4
7
9
10
12
14
15
15
17
18
18
20
137
.0
. 0
.0
.6
.7
.8
.7
.3
.8
. 2
. 1
. 0
.7
.8
.9
.8
.8
.6
.4
. l
.9
O.O
O. 0
O. 0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
0. 1
0. 1
0.2
0. 2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0. 6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
5.5
0.0
0. 0
O.O
O. 0
O.O
0. 0
0.5
1. O
1.2
1.7
2.4
2.7
3.3
4.1
4.4
4.2
4.9
5.1
4.8
5.5
40.8
0.
O.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
2.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
8.
8.
8.
9.
10.
9.
1O.
79.
0
0
O
O
1
1
9
1
3
4
7
2
6
0
6
2
6
O
5
7
9
0. 0
0. O
0. 0
0. 1
O. 1
0. 1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7- 5
8.2
10. 3
12.7
13. 6
13- 0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16. 9
126. 1
TOTAL
13-6 100.8 197.6
312.0
11.7 86.7 169.8
268.2
125
-------
EXHIBIT 6-13C;
BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
(committed fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
PERIOD
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
13.6 100.8 197.6
312.0
12.1 89.3 174.9
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-OO
2OO1-05
20O6-1O
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-4O
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
post-2085
0.0
0. 0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0. 1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
O.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
6.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
O.2
0.2
0. 2
0.9
1.4
1.6
2.3
2.9
3.2
4.1
4.8
5.1
5.1
5.7
6.0
5.9
6.5
44.6
0.
0.
0.
O.
0.
0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
8.
9.
10.
10.
11.
11.
11.
12.
87.
0
0
0
4
4
5
7
7
0
5
8
3
0
4
0
O
3
8
6
7
3
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
2.
4.
4.
7.
9.
10.
12.
14.
15.
15.
17.
18.
18.
20.
137.
Q
0
0
6
7
8
7
3
8
2
1
0
7
8
9
8
8
6
4
1
9
0.
0.
0.
O.
O.
O.
O.
0.
0.
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O.
0.
0.
0.
0.
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0.
5.
0
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0
0
0
0
1
2
2
3
3
4
5
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 1
0.1
0.1
0.6
1. 1
1.3
1.9
2.5
2.8
3.6
4.2
4.5
4.4
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.6
41.1
0.0
0.0
O. 0
0. 1
0.2
0.2
1.3
2. 2
2.5
3.8
5.0
5.4
7.0
8.3
8.9
8.6
9.8
10. 3
9-9
11.0
80.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13-1
14.0
13.7
15-5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
276.3
126
-------
EXHIBIT 6-14A;
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
NEW PILE BENEFITS-COVER IN FIVE YEARS
FIVE YEAR TOTALS AND POST-2006 TOTAL
f
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1MO 2010 2030 2060 2070 port-2086
. tMMMp YEAR FOR PCMOO
\7~7\ MATMNAL 1\NJ 6-«0 Km U771 O-6 Km
CUMULATIVE BENEFITS BY PERIOD
I
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200 -
100 -
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127
-------
EXHIBIT 6-14B:
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL
NEW PILE BENEFITS-PHASED DISPOSAL
RVE YEAR TOTALS AND POST-2086 TOTAL
13O -
120 -
110 -
1OO -
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19»0 2010 2030 2050 2O7O pa*-2OBB
ENDMO YEAR FOR PERIOD
\7~7\ NMWNAL TvNJ 6-« Km V77\ O-6 Km
CUMULATIVE: Boons BY PERIOD
I
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5
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260-
240 -
220 -
200 -
ISO -
14O -
120 -
100 -
80 -
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1000 2010
CT7I NATIONAL
2030
2060
FDRPERMO
6-60 Km
2070
O-« Km
128
-------
EXHIBIT 6-14C;
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
NEW PILE BENEFITS-CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
FIVE YEAR TOTALS AND POST-2086 TOT*.
•
G
J
i
s
B
1
120 -
110 -
100 -
»o -
•0 -
70 -
•O -
SO -
4O -
30 -
30 -
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mmKlISlKI^KIW
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A
x
x
V
V
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/
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y
'/
1MO 2O10 2O30 2060 207O po«t-2OBS
„ ENDM3 YEAR FOR PERIOD
l^/l NATMNAL IXNJ 6-«0 Km &ZZH O-6 Km
CUMULATIVE BOCJTTS DT PERIOD
\
aeo -
240-
220 -
200 -
180 -
ISO -
140 -
120 -
100 -
80 -
«O -
4O -
*o -
sll
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LA
2010
NATIONAL
2O3O
ENOMOYEMt
rou t>-
FDRPEMOO
Km
2O7O
CZft 0-6 Km
129
-------
EXHIBIT 6-15:
SUMMARY OF BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
0-5 Km
Baseline Avoided
Alternative Fatalities Fatalities
1. Baseline 13.6 11.0
Impound-
ments (cover
in 5 years)
2. Phased 13.6 11.7
Disposal
3. Continuous 13.6 12.1
Disposal
5-80 Km Rest of Nation Total
Percent Baseline Avoided Percent Baseline Avoided Percent Baseline Avoided Percent
Avoided Fatalities Fatalities Avoided Fatalities Fatalities Avoided Fatalities Fatalities Avoided
81% 100.8 81.2 81% 197.6 159.1 81% 312 251.3 81%
86% 100.8 86.7 86% 197.6 169.8 86% 312 268.2 86%
89% 100.8 89.3 89% 197.6 174.9 89% 312 276.3 89%
-------
In the low production scenario, only five domestic mills are expected to produce
between now and the year 2000. New tailings disposal capacity must be constructed at
these mills if conversion to the recommended work practice is required before the year
2000. Costs of these replacement impoundments at existing mills were estimated based
on cost data for the recommended work practices at the model new impoundment, as
shown in Exhibit 6-3.
One alternative requires interim cover on the dry areas of exposed tailings at existing
impoundments. These interim cover costs are considered as non-recoverable at the
time of final stabilization, although a portion of these costs may be recoverable.
Interim cover costs may be recoverable when the one meter cover is applied to the dry
areas of the pile. At the time of final cover, only two additional meter covers must be
added to these areas. Interim cover on berm areas of existing impoundments may not
be recoverable because of the need to reshape the sides for final stabilization. For this
reference case analysis, interim cover costs are considered non-recoverable. A
sensitivity analysis presented at the end of this chapter shows total cost for this
alternative under the assumption that the interim cover costs are recoverable at the
time of final stabilization.
Estimates of the total cost of each alternatives at existing mills are presented in
Exhibits 6-16A through 6-161. The costs in the exhibit are expressed in 1985 dollars,
and the total cost streams are separated into cost streams for final stabilization
(cover), replacement of lost capacity, and interim cover. Baseline cost streams are
presented in the left-most columns, estimated cost streams under each alternative are
shown in the center columns, and the net added cost stream for the alternative in the
right-most columns. The present values at the bottom of each column were calculated
assuming costs are incurred at the beginning of each five year period. Graphs of the
total added cost streams for each alternative at existing mills are shown in Exhibit 6-
17 A through 6-171.
Examination of Exhibits 6-16A through 6-161 shows that the total added cost stream for
final cover sums to zero, when no discount rate is applied. However, the present value
cost of final cover is positive for all discount rates greater than zero. This unusual
result stems from the fact that identical real resource costs for final cover occur in
131
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16A;
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
(millions 1985 dollars)
ENDING
YEAR
BASELINE
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER KENT COVER TOTAL
COVER BY 1990
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER KENT COVER TOTAL
ADDED COST
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER KENT COVER TOTAL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
t>
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
•—"—«•
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
PV(ll)
PV(5I)
PV001)
658
413
69
9
0
0
0
658
413
69
9
658
626
515
408
199
190
162
138
856
816
677
546
213
446
400
199
190
162
138
0 199
0 403
0 608
0 538
132
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16B;
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
(millions 1985 dollars)
ENDING
YEAR
BASELINE
FINAL REPLACE INTERIlt
COVER NENT COVER TOTAL
COVER BY 1995
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
ADDED COST
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER NENT COVER TOTAL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
:=:====£::
TOTAL
PV<11)
W(5I)
PV(IOI)
:re=r==s==;
658
413
69
9
=c===z=s:
0
0
0
0
==xsr=i
0
0
0
0
r=r==r:rc=rn
658
413
69
9
£===£=S=====:
658
595
404
254
===""=£:
126
118
90
66
s="===:
0
0
0
0
=="-==" — -!
784
713
494
319
==-—•- — — •
0
182
334
245
•-—-—•
126
118
90
66
----- — —
0
0
0
0
" — — —
126
300
424
311
133
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16C;
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
(millions 1985 dollars)
baseline
2000
added cost
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HEHT COVER TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER MENT COVER TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
658
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
658
54
712
54
54
PV(1I)
PV(5I)
PV(lOl)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
566
316
157
49
33
21
0
0
0
615
350
178
153
247
149
49
33
21
0
0
0
202
280
170
134
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16D;
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
(millions 1985 dollars)
ENDING
YEAR
BASELINE
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER KENT COVER TOTAL
COVER BY 2005
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER RENT COVER TOTAL
ADDED COST
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
658
658
658
658
PV(1I)
PV(5»)
PV(IOI)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
539
248
98
0
0
0
0
0
0
539
248
98
126
179
89
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
179
89
135
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16E;
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER
(millions 1985 dollars)
baseline
1990+INTERIN
added cost
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
:r===:
32
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
104
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
104
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
658
658
658
199
32
199
32
231
PV(ll)
PV(5I)
PV(IOX)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
626
515
408
190
162
138
32
32
32
848
710
578
213
446
400
190
162
138
32
32
32
435
640
570
136
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16F;
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER
(millions 1985 dollars)
baseline
1995+INTERIM
added cast
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
TOTAL
PVW)
PV(5I)
PVOOX)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
tssssssssss
658
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
413
69
9
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
595
404
254
0
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
118
90
66
32
85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
118
113
99
85
32
158
712
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
901
826
593
404
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
182
334
245
0
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
118
90
66
32
85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
118
113
99
85
32
158
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ESSSSJS5S
244
413
523
3%
137
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16G;
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER
(millions 1985 dollars)
baseline.
2000+INTERIH
added cost
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER KENT COVER TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
=======
0
0
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
56
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
56
658
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
658
54 119
831
54 119
173
PV(lt)
PV(5I)
PV(IOI)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
566
316
157
49
33
21
115
100
86
730
450
264
153
247
149
49
33
21
115
100
86
317
380
256
138
-------
EXHIBIT 6-16H;
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER
(millions 1985 dollars)
ENDING
YEAR
BASELINE
FINAL REPLACE INTERIH
COVER KENT COVER TOTAL
COVER BY 2005, WITH INTERIH COVER
FINAL REPLACE INTERIH
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
ADDED COST
FINAL REPLACE INTERIH
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
--.—— ^-—---------------- —
TOTAL
658
658
N(»)
W(5I)
PV(lOl)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
658
129 786
539 0 123 662
248 0 105 353
98 0 88 186
0
126
179
89
0
0
0
129 129
123
105
88
249
283
177
139
-------
EXHIBIT 6-161;
COST OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
(millions 1985 dollars)
kistlite
INTERIM ONLY
added cost
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER
TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER HENT COVER
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
PV(ll)
PV(5J)
PV(lOl)
658
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
413
69
9
658
413
69
9
0 143
0 134
0 110
0 90
800
547
179
99
0
0
0
0 143
0 134
0 110
0 90
143
134
110
90
140
-------
EXHIBIT 6-17A:
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
COSTS FOR EXISTING PILES
COVER DATE-1 WO
I
ft.
t
8DO ~
700 -
eoo -
eoo -
40O -
30O-
200 -
1OO -
0 -
-1OO -
-200 -
-300-
-4OO -
-6OO -1
1
^
7
y
^
'/
'/
rx
Y/ '/ izj\^
%
^/j
y
90O 2005 2020 2035 206O 2O66 2OBO
ENDMO YEAR FDR PERIOD
141
-------
EXHIBIT 6-17B;
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
COSTS FOR EXISTING PILES
COVER DATE-1W6
BOO -
too -
600 -
600 -
4OO-
300-
200-
100 -
-1OO -
-200 -
-300-
-400 -
^
rA
xxxxxx
y
\
/
y
/,
to
—BOO -1 | i i | • • | • • | i • | • i | • i | i
19M) 2006 2020 2036 2060 2O66 2080
ENOMO YEAR FDR PERIOD
142
-------
EXHIBIT 6-17C;
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
COSTS FOR EXISTING PILES
COVER DATE-2000
s
I
M
ouu -
700 -
600-
600 -
4OO -
300 -
200 -
100 -
0 -
-1OO J
-200 -
-3OO -
-4OO -
_K(1<1 -
M
//
\
//
y/
YA'/ ^YA
/
//
2
1MO 2OO6 2020 2O36 2O6O
ENOMO YEAR FOR PERIOD
2O66
206O
143
-------
EXHIBIT 6-17D;
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
COSTS FOR EXISTING PILES
COMER DA1E-2OO6
W
ft.
80O -
700 -
eoo -
600 -
4OO -
300 -
2OO -
too -
-10O -
-200 -
-300 -
-4OO -
0
/
^
^
^
'/
YA'/ ^Y/
1,
YA
\A
190O 2OO5 2O2O 2O35 2O5O
ENDMG YEAR TOR PERIOD
2O65
2O8O
144
-------
EXHIBIT 6-17E;
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER
8
c
u
L.
fc
in
COSTS FOR EXISTING PILES
COVER DATE-1990 + INTERIM
ouu -
700 -
600 -
500 -
4OO -
300 -
200 -
1UO ™
o -
-100 -
-200 -
-300 -
-4OO -
X
7\
//
//
//
//
^
/;
r?i
L/J A t/IIX|
I
1990 2OO5 2020 2O35 2060
ENDING YEAR FOR PERIOD
2O65
2080
145
-------
EXHIBIT 6-17F;
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER
COSTS FOR EXISTING PILES
COVER DATE-1995 + INTERIM
ouu -
700 -
600 -
^ 600 -
8
• 4OO -
*= 3OO -
£
0 2OO -
£ ,00-
fc o-
M
fe -100-
8 -200-
-3OO -
-4OO -
-600 -
;/
7H /
'/
/
/
/
g
y
/
YA'/ ^YA
t
/
YA
1990 2005 2020 2035 2O50
ENWNO YEAR FOR PERIOD
2065
2080
146
-------
EXHIBIT 6-17G;
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER
u
COSTS FOR EXISTING PILES
COVER bATE-2000 + INTERIM
BOO -
700 -
600 -
6OO -
4OO -
300 -
2DO -
100 -
0 -
-100 -
-200 -
-300 -
-4OO -
win -
\
a/; ^£d
;/
;/
Ld
1990 2005 2020 2O35 2060
ENDMG YEAR FDR PERIOD
206S
2060
147
-------
EXHIBIT 6-17H;
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER
§
1
I
COSTS FOR EXISTING PILES
COVER DA7E-200frHNTERIM
ouu -
700-
600 -
600 -
4OO -
300 -
200 -
1OO -
0_
-100 -
-200 -
-300 -
-400 -
-5OO -
^VX _
®
t
y
/,
'/
/
/
/
\A
1990 2OO6 2O20 2O36 2060
ENDN6 YEAR FOR PERIOD
2O66
2O8O
148
-------
s^
I
EXHIBIT 6-171;
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF INTERIM COVER
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
COSTS FOR EXISTING PILES
COVER DATE-INTERIM ONLY
OJU -
190 -
180 -
170 -
160 -
150 -
1*0 -
130 -
120 -
110 -
100 -
90 -
80 -
70 -
60 -
60 -
40 -
30 -
20 -
10 -
O -
1
NXXXXXXXXXN
. i , • • 1 • . 1 • • 1 i . | • • g •
199O 2005 2O20 2035 2060 2065 2060
ENDING YEAR FDR PERIOD
149
-------
both the alternative cost stream and the baseline cost stream, with earlier payment of
these costs under the alternative. As a result, the added cost stream for final cover
contains balancing positive and negative entries. Costs of final cover may be referred
to as a Type 2 cost of the rule. A type 2 cost requires no net additional expenditure of
real resources, but the time of expenditure is affected by the alternative. The term
"type 2 cost" serves to distinguish these costs from the cost streams for replacement
impoundments and interim cover, which are referred to as Type 1 costs. These latter
costs represent additional real resources required under the alternative which are not
required in the baseline.
The present values of the type 2 cost stream for final cover measure the opportunity
cost associated with earlier payment of these expenses for final cover. The opportunity
cost first increases, going from a 1 percent discount rate to a 5 percent rate. The
opportunity cost then decreases when the discount rate is raised to 10 percent. By
comparison, the additional type 1 real resource cost required under the alternatives for
replacement impoundments and interim cover do not occur in the baseline cost stream.
Both the total cost and present value cost for these type 1 cost items are positive, with
monotonically decreasing present values for larger discount rates.
The disparate behavior of these two categories of costs as a function of the discount
rate is examined in Exhibit 6-18, which contains graphs of the present value of a type 1
or type 2 cost payment of $1 at times t = 10 and t = 20 years in the future. The type 1
graphs start at $1 and uniformly decrease along the well-known exponential curve. The
type 2 cost has a identical avoided cost of -$1 at a time 40 years after the time of
payment. In this case, the total cost with no discount rate is zero. At higher discounts,
the present value first increases then decreases, with the maximum present value
occurring at a real discount rate of less than 5 percent. At discount rates of greater
than 8 percent, the present value of the avoided cost payment 40 years later is almost
zero. Hence, at discount rates higher than 8 percent, the present values of type 1 and
type 2 costs are almost identical.
The distinction between type 1 and type 2 costs of the alternatives serves to separate
the additional real resource costs of this rule from the opportunity value of costs for
final stabilization which are required under other Federal statutes but which will be
paid earlier as a result of this rule.
150
-------
EXHIBIT 6-18;
COMPARISON OF THE PRESENT VALUES OF TYPE 1 AND TYPE 2
COSTS AS A FUNCTION OF THE REAL DISCOUNT RATE
PRESENT VALUE OF TYPES 1 & 2 COSTS
REQURE |1 PAYMENT AT t-1O(20) YEARS
*
1
h.
o
u
i
* PV(type 1 co»t)-
PV[C(t)] for C(t)-*1.00
* PV(type 2 ooet)-
PV[C(t)]-PV[C(t-«-dBlta t)]
for defta t—4O y«ar« and
C(t)-C(t+ddto t)-$1.00
16
20
24
DI9COUKT RATE (X)
151
-------
The results presented in Exhibits 6-16 are summarized in Exhibit 6-19. The summary
table shows the present value of the total social costs incurred by requiring the
alternative work practices at existing mills. The present value cost at 5 percent and 10
percent of required expenditures for each cost category and total costs are shown for
each alternative, where applicable. Alternatives which require final cover before 2005
have costs for replacement capacity, while the other alternatives do not require
replacement of existing disposal capacity under the assumption that all existing mills
cease operations by the year 2000.
6.3.4 Total Benefits Estimates — Existing Mills
The benefits of reduced radon-222 emissions resulting from adoption of the recom-
mended work practices at existing licensed uranium mills were presented in Exhibit 6-9.
These benefits occur due to earlier final stabilization of existing impoundments at
current mill sites, and due to reduced operating emissions during disposal of future
tailings generated at these mills. The magnitude of the estimated benefits is strongly
affected by our baseline assumption that existing impoundments will remain in a
standby status for 40 years before final stabilization. A sensitivity analysis using a 20
year baseline assumption is presented at the end of this chapter.
Estimates of baseline and avoided fatal lung cancers due to radon-222 emissions at
existing mills are presented in Exhibits 6-20A through 6-201 for each alternative date of
final cover for existing impoundments and for intrim cover only. The avoided fatalities
are reported in five-year periods for the local area (0-5 kilometers), the local region (5-
80 kilometers), and for the rest of the nation. These estimates were developed by
summing the site-specific health effects estimates presented in Exhibit 6-9, given the
time pattern of future operations of existing mills implied by the baseline low-
production scenario.
For alternatives which require final cover before 2005, the early closure of existing
impoundments requires an earlier dry-out period which would not occur in the absence
of this regulation. The higher emissions of these impoundments while drying cause
negative benefits in the period preceding the date of final stabilization. These
alternatives also require the construction of additional replacement impoundments,
causing small negative benefits in the period after 2045. These effects are not
encountered in the other alternatives. The benefits at existing mills are graphed in
Exhibits 6-21A through 6-211.
152
-------
EXHIBIT 6-19;
PRESENT VALUE COSTS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION
OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS, FOR VARIOUS ALTERNATIVES
(millions of 1985 dollars)
Present Value Cost
Alternative
Cover by 1990
With Interim Cover
Cover by 1995
With Interim Cover
Cover by 2000
With Interim Cover
Cover by 2005
With Interim Cover
Interim Cover Only
5 Percent Discount
Type 2a Type lb Type 1
Final
Cover
446
446
334
334
247
247
179
179
NA
Replacement
162
162
90
90
33
33
NA
NA
NA
Interim
NA
32
NA
99
NA
100
NA
105
110
Total
608
640
424
523
280
380
179
283
110
10 Percent Discount
Type 2 Type 1 Type 1
Final
Cover
400
400
245
245
149
149
89
89
NA
Replacement
138
138
66
66
21
21
NA
NA
NA
Interim
NA
32
NA
85
NA
86
NA
88
90
Total -
538
570
311
396
170
256
89
177
90
en
CO
Type 2 costs represents the time value or the opportunity cost of covering an impoundment sooner than it would have been covered in the
absence of EPA action.
JType 1 costs are for replacement of lost capacity at existing impoundments and the noncoverable cost of interim cover.
Notes: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
NA: Not applicable.
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20A;
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
(committed fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
1990
PERIOD
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-8OKM NATION
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-1O
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-ftO
2041-45
2O46-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
O.8
0.2
0.2
O. 2
0.0
O.O
O.O
0.0
0. 0
O.O
0. 0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.7
7-7
7.7
7-7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
1ft. 2
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
12. ft
3.6
3. ft
2. ft
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23. 2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19. ft
5. ft
5.2
ft.l
O. 8
0. 8
0. 8
0.8
O.8
0. 8
0.8
0. 8
-O. 1
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0. 1
0. 1
0.1
0.0
O. O
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0. O
-0.5
6. ft
6.5
6.9
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
O.O
0.0
0.0
O. 0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0. 0
-1.0
12.2
12.7
13.6
1ft. 0
1ft. 0
1ft. 0
1ft. 0
11. 8
3.0
2.8
1.8
-0.1
-O. 1
-O. 1
-O. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-O. 1
-0.1
-1.6
19. ft
19.9
21. ft
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18. ft
ft. 5
ft. 2
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
TOTAL
8.6 70.1 135.6
21ft.3
7.1 58.1 112.2
177-ft
154
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20B;
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
(committed fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
1995
PERIOD
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
l.O
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.7
7.7
7-7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3-4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23. 2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5-4
5.2
4.1
0. 8
0. 8
0.8
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0.0
-0. 1
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0. 8
0. 1
0. 1
0. 1
O. O
0. 0
O. 0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
0. 0
-0.5
6.5
7.0
7.4
7-4
7.4
7-4
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
0. O
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
-1.0
12.7
13- 6
14.0
14.0
14.0
14.0
11. 8
3.0
2.8
1.8
-O. 1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-O. 1
-0. 1
-O. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
0.0
-1.6
20.0
21. 4
22. 3
22. 3
22.3
22. 3
18. 5
4. 5
4.3
3.1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
TOTAL
8.6 70.1 135.6
214.3
6.3 51.8 100.3
158.5
155
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20C;
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
2000
REST OF
PERIOD 0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
8.6 70.1 135.6
214.3
5.6 45-5
88.4
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
20O6-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-5O
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0. 8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
O.O
0.0
-0.1
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
O.8
0.2
0.1
O.I
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
o.o
-o.4
7.O
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
5.9
1. 3
^ • *^
1. 3
™ • ^/
1. 2
O. O
0.0
O.O
0.0
O. O
o.o
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
13.6
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.1
11.9
3. O
• w
2. 8
K. • W
1. 8
-0. 1
-0.1
-O.I
-0.1
— O. 1
W * A
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0. 0
-1.1
21.4
22. 3
22. 3
22. 3
22. 3
18.5
^ w w ^
4C
. 3
A •»
•»• J
39,
. «'
— O 1
w • A
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
— O 1
U • J.
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
139.5
156
-------
EXHIBIT 6-2OP;
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
(committed fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
2005
PERIOD
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-ftO
20ftl-ft5
20ft6-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
O. 8
0.9
1. 0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0. 8
0.2
0.2
0.2
O. 0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7-7
7.7
7.7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0. 3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13-3
1ft. 2
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
12. ft
3.6
3. ft
2. ft
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19. ft
5. ft
5-2
ft.l
O. 8
0.8
O. 8
0. 8
0. 8
0.8
0.8
0. 8
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
O. 8
0. 2
0. 1
0. 1
0.0
O. 0
0. 0
0. 0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
O.O
0.0
7. ft
7. ft
7. ft
7. ft
5.9
l.ft
l.ft
1.3
O. 0
O. 0
0. 0
0. 0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
1ft. 1
1ft. 1
1ft. 1
1ft. 1
11.9
3-1
2.9
1.8
0. 0
O. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
O.O
O. 0
O.O
0.0
0.0
22. ft
22. ft
22. ft
22. ft
18.6
ft. 6
ft. ft
3.3
0.0
O. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL
8.6 7O.1 135.6
21ft.3
ft.9 39.5 76.2
120. 5
157
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20E;
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
1990+INTERIM
PERIOD
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
8.6 70.1 135.6
214.3
7.3 59.6 114.7
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-5O
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1. 0
1.0
0.8
0.2
0.2
0. 2
0. 0
0. 0
O. 0
0. 0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7-7
7.7
7.7
7-7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0. 1
0.8
0.8
0. 8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0. 8
0. 1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
6.4
6.5
6.9
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
1.5
12. 2
12.7
13.6
14.0
14.0
14.0
14. O
11.8
3.0
2.8
1.8
-0.1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
2.6
19.4
19.9
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.4
4.5
4.2
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
181.6
158
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20F;
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
1995+INTERIM
PERIOD
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
8.6 70.1 135.6
216.3
7.0 57.1 109-7
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
20/11-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
O.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
O.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
O.O
0.0
0. O
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
5.6
6.8
6.8
7-2
7.7
7-7
7.7
7-7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
O. 0
0.0
0. 0
O.O
O. O
1.5
3.3
6.5
7.0
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
5.9
12.7
13.6
14.0
14. O
14. O
14. 0
11.8
3.0
2.8
1.8
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0. 1
-0.1
4.2
9.6
20.0
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.5
4.5
4.3
3.1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-O.I
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0. 1
173.8
159
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20G;
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
2000+INTERIM
PERIOD
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-O5
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1. 0
1.0
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7-7
7.7
7-7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
2O.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
O.8
O. 8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.2
0. 1
0.1
0.0
0. 0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
3.8
3-4
7.0
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
0. 0
0.0
O. 0
O. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
6.8
6.4
13.6
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.1
11.9
3.0
2.8
1.8
-0.1
-0. 1
-O. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
4.2
11. 1
10.2
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18. 5
4.5
4.3
3.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0. 1
-0.1
TOTAL
8.6 70.1 135.6
214.3
6.8 54.7 104.7
166.1
160
-------
EXHIBIT 6-20H:
BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER
(committed fatal cancers)
Avoided Fatalities
baseline
2005+INTERIM
PERIOD
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
8.6 70.1 135.6
214.3
6.5 52.5 100.1
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
l.O
1.0
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.7
7.7
7-7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
O.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.2
0. 1
0. 1
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
1.5
3.8
3.8
3.9
7.4
7.4
7.4
7-4
5.9
1.4
1.4
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
6.8
7.0
7.6
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.1
11.9
3.1
2.9
1.8
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
11.1
11. 3
12.0
22. 4
22. 4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
O.O
0.0
159.1
161
-------
EXHIBIT 6-201;
BENEFITS OF INTERIM COVER
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
Avoided Fatalities
base 1 ine
INTERIM ONLY
PERIOD
O-5KM
REST OF
5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-OO
2001-05
2OO6-10
2011-15
2O 16-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
204 1 -45
2046-50
205 1 -55
2O56-60
2061-65
2O66-70
207 1 -75
2076-80
2081-85
0-7
0.8
0-8
0-9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0-8
0-2
0-2
0-2
O-O
O-O
o.o
o.o
O-O
O-O
O-O
o.o
5-6
6-8
6-8
7-2
7-7
7.7
7-7
7-7
6-2
1-6
1 .6
1.5
0.3
0-3
0-3
0.3
0-3
O-3
0-3
O-3
10-8
12-9
13.3
14-2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12-4
3.6
3-4
2-4
0 • 5
0-5
0-5
O.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0-5
17-1
20 • 5
2O • 9
22 • 3
23-2
23-2
23-2
23.2
19-4
5-4
5-2
4. 1
0-8
0-8
0-8
0 • 8
O-8
0-8
0.8
0-8
REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
0-2
0-5
0-5
0-5
0-6
0-6
0-6
O-6
0.5
0-1
0-1
0-1
0 • 0
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
o.o
0-0
0-0
1.5
3.8
3.8
3-9
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
3.8
0.9
0.9
O.8
O • 0
O-O
0-0
o.o
o.o
O-O
o.o
o.o
2.5
6-8
7.0
7.6
8.7
8-7
8.7
8-7
7.4
2.0
1 .8
1-2
0-0
o.o
0-0
0-0
o.o
o.o
0-0
o.o
4.2
11.1
11 .3
12-0
13-9
13-9
13.9
13-9
11 .6
2-9
2-8
2.1
0-0
0-0
o.o
o.o
0-0
o.o
0-0
0-0
: = = = = = = == = = = =
TOTAL
8-6 70-1 135.6
214.3
4.7 37-9
71-0
113.6
162
-------
EXHIBIT 6-21A;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
i
8
e
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=1990
FIVE YEAR TOTALS
22 -
2O -
18-
16-
14 -
12 -
10 -
8-
6 -
4 -
2 -
I
1
!
m
vXXXXXXXXXXXX^/X/yXX
R
i
m
v\X\XX\XX\XX\^/////X
ra
v\XXX\XX\XXXXN//////X
I
v ^
1771 >«TIONAL
2036
2050
2065
2080
YEAR FDR PERIOD
6-80 Km
1777X 0-6 Km
163
-------
EXHIBIT 6-21B;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=1995
FWE YEAR TOTALS
24 -
22 -
20 -
18 -
P 16 -
5 14 ~
1 "~
£ 10 -
g -
1 .-
4 -
2 -
I
m
\
///////&
\XX\XX\\\X\XXs
'///
'///////
vXX\X\X\X\X\X\
y/j
'//////,
\X\\X\\\\\XXXN
\
\\\\\\\\\\\N
11$
M
«.I<*I1*I<«I*«II*I«II1
199O 2005 2O2O 2O35 2O60 2O65 20BO
ENDJNO YEAR FOR PERIOD
[771 NATIONAL TXNJ 5-80 Km X777X O-5 Km
164
-------
EXHIBIT 6-21C;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
u
9
I
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=2000
FTVE YEAR TOTALS
z* -
22 -
20 -
18 -
16 -
14 -
12 -
10 -
8 -
6 -
4 -
2 -
«*
1
/
v<
, s
X/////KXXXXXXXXXXXX
/
m
\
\
/
m
\(
X////yK\X\\\\\XXXXX
/
m
\
XXXXX/KXXXXXXXXXXXX
/
I
/
'/I ' ^\
/ / /
/ / /
hid
1990
20O5
2020
2O35
2O50
2065
2080
[771 NATIONAL
YEAR FOR PERIOD
5-80 Km
0-5 Km
165
-------
EXHIBIT 6-2ID;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
8
fi
I
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=2005
FNE YEAR TOTALS
24 -
22 -
20 -
18 -
16 -
14 -
12 -
1O -
8 -
6 -
4 -
2 -
0 -
^
Y///A
NXXXX
/
'/
/
/
\x\xx
X
X
i
^
/
/
/
\
X
X
1
^
/
/
vXXXX
X
X
////A
xxxxx
y
/
/
kxxxx
I
^
/.
/,
/
XXXXN
3n
i • • i • • i • • i • • i • • i • • , .
1900 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080
WkTONAL
YEAR FOR PERIOD
6-8O Km
0-6 Km
166
-------
EXHIBIT 6-2IE;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER
I
e
9
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=1990+INT.
FNE YEAR TOTALS
24
22 -
20 -
16 -
16 -
14 -
12 -
10 -
8 -
6 -
4 -
2 -
O
-2
1
1990
2005
2020
2035
2060
2065
2060
177] NATIONAL
YEAR FOR PERIOD
6-60 Km
VTA 0-6 Km
167
-------
EXHIBIT 6-2IF;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=1995+INT.
FIVE YEAR TOTALS
kJ
e
Q
I
22 -
20 -
18 -
16 -
14 -
12 -
10 -
8 -
6 -
4
2 H
-2
\
I
1 990
2005
NATIONAL
2020 2O35 2050 2065
YEAR FOR PERIOD
6-8O Km C553 0-5 Km
2080
168
-------
EXHIBIT 6-21G;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
2000 WITH INTERIM COVER
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER 2000 +INTERIM
FIVE YEAR TOTALS
22 -
20 -
18 -
g 16 -
\ 14 ~
0
AVOIDED TATAL
J N * 0> 0» O N
I I I 1 1 1
I
li
i •
1990
T77\
I
y//////§.
/
n
^
/
\
n
Y/////J\
/
xx\xxxxxxx\\
m
w//////.
/
xx\xxx\x\x\\
n
1
/
'/
^
^s
\
i I > i 1 i i
y/,
1
1
1
20O5 2020 2O35
1 1 1 • 1 1 • 1 •
2050 2O65 2060
ENDING YEAR FOR PERIOD
V /\ NATIONAL rV\J 6-80 Km
V//A 0-5 Km
169
-------
EXHIBIT 6-21H;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER
u
I
I
e
c
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER 2005 -HNTERIM
FIVE YEAR TOTALS
X* -
22 -
20 -
18-
16 -
14 -
12 -
^o -
6 -
6 -
4 -
2 -
a -
1
!
I
k\\\\\\\VX/XH
Fl
O
^
\
\
2
/
^^ss^^sss>
Fl
\
^
\
\
\
/
\
'',
^
o
^
^v
x1
s
^
Fl
x
^
\
\
\
/
/
g
o
O1
X
^s
j
III
19&0
17~7\
2006
2O20
2035
2060
2066
2080
YEAR FOR PERIOD
6-80 Km
U77X 0-6 Km
170
-------
EXHIBIT 6-211;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF INTERIM COVER
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-INTERIM ONLY
FNE YEAR TOTALS
z* -
22 -
20 -
18 -
£ 16 -
O
1 «-
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-------
Exhibit 6-22 summarizes the estimated benefits of each alternative. In this exhibit,
avoided fatalities in the local regional, and national categories are compared for each
alternative. Siemificant reductions in baseline fatal cancer incidence rates are
achievable by requiring the recommended work practices at all existing and future
uranium mills, beginning now or at some near time in the future. The percent of
baseline fatal cancers avoided by the alternatives ranges from 53 percent for interim
cover only to 86 percent for cover by 1990 with interim cover.
6.4 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
The estimated costs and benefits of the alternative work practices presented in the
previous sections were calculated for existing and future mills based on a set of
assumptions which collectively form the reference case. These assumptions include the
low demand forecast which affects the number of mills in operation, the most likely
baseline future status of impoundments at these mills, the design type of future
impoundments (whether above or below grade), the recoverability of interim cover costs
at the time of final stabilization, and the severity of health effects resulting from
radon-222 emissions from these impoundments. In this section, the sensitivity of the
reference case cost and benefit estimates to a change in each of these assumptions is
examined. The total cost estimates presented in Section 6.3 under the reference case
set of assumptions are sensitive to changes in the number of operating mills, the
assumed 40-year dry standby status of impoundments in the absence of these r'les, the
design type assumed for the impoundment, and the degree of recoverability of interim
cover costs. (The present value costs are also sensitive to the assumed discount rate.
All results in the previous section were presented at a 5% and 10% real discount rate.
This convention will be continued in the sensitivity analysis.) The estimated total
benefits are sensitive to the number of operating mills and the baseline 40-year dry
standby period assumption. Additionally, the estimated benefits are sensitive to
changes in the number of fatal lung cancers expected from the radon-222 releases. The
sensitivity analyses conducted in this section are summarized in Exhibit 6-23.
The sensitivity analyses are conducted by varying one assumption, while holding the
other assumptions at the reference case value. This procedure measures the sensitivity
of the estimated cost and benefit to changes in each assumption individually, and does
172
-------
EXHIBIT 6-22;
FATALITIES AVOIDED BY ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
AT EXISTING MILLS, BY YEAR OF FINAL STABILIZATION
Alternative
Cover by 1990
With Interim Cover
Cover by 1995
With Interim Cover
Cover by 2000
With Interim Cover
Cover by 2005
With Interim Cover
Interim Cover Only
Baseline Fatalities
0-5 Km
Avoided
Fatalities
7
7
6
7
6
7
5
7
5
9
Percent
Avoided
78%
78%
67%
78%
67%
78%
56%
78%
56%
5-80 Km
Avoided
Fatalities
58
61
52
58
46
55
40
53
38
70
Percent
Avoided
83%
87%
74%
83%
66%
79%
57%
76%
54%
Rest of Nation
Avoided
Fatalities
112
117
100
111
89
106
76
100
71
136
Percent
Avoided
82%
86%
74%
82%
65%
78%
56%
74%
52%
Total
Avoided
Fatalities
177
185
158
176
141
168
121
159
114
214
Percent
Avoided
83%
86%
74%
82%
66%
79%
57%
74%
53%
Note: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
-------
EXHIBIT 6-23;
SUMMARY OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR COSTS AND BENEFITS
Type of Assumption
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Level of production
Dry standby period
before final cover
in baseline
Design type
Recoverability
of interim cover
costs
Health effects
factor
Reference Case
Alternative Assumptions
Costs
Low production (a) High production
40 years (b) 20 years
Below grade (c) Partially below grade
Non-recoverable (d) Recoverable
700 fatal cancers/
million-person-WLM
N/A
Benefits
(a) High production
(b) 20 years
N/A
N/A
(c) 250 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
(d) 1000 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
-------
not generate estimates for all possible combinations of values for the entire set of
assumptions. The latter procedure is unmanageable due to the large number of possible
combinations which can be constructed by considering all variations of each assumption
simultaneously.
6.4.1 Sensitivity of Estimated Costs to Alternative Assumptions
Estimated total costs presented in Section 6.3 for existing and future mills were
developed under the reference case set of assumptions shown in Exhibit 6-23. A
summary of the estimated total costs for future mills was presented in Exhibit 6-12, for
each alternative work practice. A summary of estimated total costs at existing mills
was presented in Exhibit 6-19, for each of nine alternatives. The sensitivity analysis
presents results for five of these alternatives: cover by 1990, cover by 1995, cover by
2005, cover by 2005 with interim cover, and interim cover only. The summary total
cost tables for new and existing mills are recalculated in this sensitivity analysisfor
each of these five alternatives, under each of the revised cost assumptions shown in
Exhibit 6-23.
The revised summary total cost tables for future mills are shown in Exhibits 6-24A, 6-
24B, 6-24C and 6-24D for the high production, 20-year baseline, partially below grade,
and recoverable interim cost assumptions, respectively. Exhibits 6-25A, 6-25B, 6-25C,
and 6-25D contain the revised summary total cost estimates for existing mills, under
the same four variations of the reference case assumptions which affect the cost
estimates.
6.4.2 Sensitivity of Estimated Benefits to Alternative Assumptions
Benefits resulting from the alternative work practices were presented in Section 6.3.
These estimates were derived using the reference case set of assumptions shown in
Exhibit 6-23. A summary of estimated total benefits of the alternative work practices
at future mills was presented in Exhibit 6-15. A summary of estimated total benefits at
existing mills was presented in Exhibit 6-22, for each of nine alternatives. Recal-
culations of the estimated total benefits for the sensitivitv analysis of these five
alternatives were based on the revised assumptions affecting benefits, as shown in
Exhibit 6-23.
175
-------
EXHIBIT 6-24(A):
-a
o>
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION
(millions 1985 dollars)
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
PV(1%)
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
Reference
Case(*)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
0
105
26
3.5
Alternative
Case(**)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
87
16
16
110
39
32
133
55
-39
133
55
-55
118
-700
0
210
44
5.3
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
553
353
22
-13
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-225
118
163
-193
154
222
165
201
268
-134
232
317
-186
235
338
-209
210
-213
1135
695
38
-21
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
1092
681
95
8.3
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-169
167
203
-143
211
281
-99
271
341
-57
312
397
-105
317
418
-126
296
-295
2225
1336
161
12.8
(*) Reference Case: Low Production
(**) Alternative Case: High Production
-------
EXHIBIT 6-24(B):
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
PV(1%)
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
Single Cell -
Reference
Case(*)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
0
105
26
3.5
ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS:
(millions of 1985 dollars)
- Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal
Alternative
Case(**)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
-47
8
71
-55
8
63
-55
8
63
-212
0
58
19
3.0
(*) Reference Case: 40 years baseline dry
(**) Alternative Case: 20 year baseline dry
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
553
353
22
-13
period
period
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
73
-104
143
82
-115
153
92
-112
147
-23
553
306
15
-14
20 YEAR BASELINE
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
1092
681
95
8.3
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
107
-71
180
117
-76
190
127
-76
182
-63
1092
634
88
7.9
-------
EXHIBIT 6-24(C);
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS; PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE DISPOSAL
(million of 1985 dollars)
oo
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
Reference
Case(*)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
Alternative
Case(**)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
82
10
10
92
20
20
102
21
-51
92
21
-61
92
-451
Phased
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
Disposal
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-75
86
113
-28
121
135
-6
153
145
12
159
161
-64
165
167
-70
156
-322
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-55
93
105
-37
110
123
-19
135
128
-7
141
141
-83
143
143
-94
133
-445
TOTAL
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
0
105
26
3.5
0
136
33
4.5
553
353
22
-13
1010
677
105
13
1092
681
95
8.3
656
520
100
17
(*) Reference Case: Entirely below grade disposal
(**) Alternative Case: Partially below grade disposal
-------
EXHIBIT 6-24(P);
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS; RECOVERABLE INTERIM COVER COSTS
(millions of 1985 dollars)
<£>
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
Single Cell -
Reference
Case(*)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
Cover in 5 Years
Alternative
Case(**)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
Phased
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
Disposal
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
Continuous
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
Disposal
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
TOTAL
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
0
105
26
3.5
0
105
26
3.5
553
353
22
-13
553
353
22
-13
(*) Reference Case: Non-recovrable interim cover costs
(**) Alternative Case: Recoverable interim cover costs
1010
681
95
8.3
1010
681
95
8.3
-------
EXHIBIT 6-25(A);
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION
oo
(millions 1985 dollars)
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
PV(1%)
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
Cover
Reference
Case(»)
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
199
403
608
538
by 1990
Alternative
Case(*»)
72
729
72
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-412
-7
-41
-109
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
247
427
621
545
Cover
Reference
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
300
424
311
by 1995
Alternative
Case
0
72
729
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-412
-7
-41
-109
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
175
325
437
318
Cover
Reference
Case
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
179
89
by 2005
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
0
657
0
0
0
-88
-412
-7
-41
-109
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
134
180
90
Cover by^
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
129
249
283
177
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
32
81
2
10
657
0
0
0
-88
-412
-7
-41
-109
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
125
242
282
175
Interim
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
142
134
110
90
Only
Alternative
Case
32
81
2
10
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
142
134
108
88
(*) Reference Case: Low Production
(•*) Alternative Case: High Production
-------
EXHIBIT 6-25(B):
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS; 20-YEAR BASELINE
(million 1985 dollars)
00
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
Cover
Reference
Case(»)
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 1990
Alternative
Case(*»)
72
729
54
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover
Reference
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 1995
Alternative
Case
0
72
712
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-82
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover
Reference
Case
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 2005
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
0
570
-439
-7
-41
-82
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover by
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
570
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Interim
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Only
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
199
199
126
126
129
129
142
142
PV(1%) 403 312 300
PV(5%) 608 494 424
PV(10%) 538 489 311
(*) Reference Case: 40 year baseline dry period
(*•) Alternative Case: 20 year baseline dry period
209
310
262
126
179
89
35
64
40
249
283
177
158
169
129
134
110
90
134
110
90
-------
EXHIB1T6-25(C):
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS; PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE DISPOSAL
(millions 1985 dollars)
Cover by 1990
Cover by 1995
Cover by 2005
Cover by 2005 + Interim
Interim Only
00
to
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
PV(1%)
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
Reference
Case(»)
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
199
403
608
538
(•) Reference Case:
<*•} Alternative Case:
Alternative
Case(»«)
50
707
37
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
137
344
558
495
Reference
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
300
424
311
Alternative
Case
0
50
694
0
8
8
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
87
264
397
290
Reference
Case
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
179
89
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
179
89
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
129
249
283
177
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
129
249
283
177
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
142
134
110
90
Alternative
Case
32
81
2
10
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
142
134
108
88
Entirely below grade disposal
Partially below
grade disposal
-------
EXHIBIT 6-25(D):
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS; RECOVERABLE INTERIM COVER COSTS
(millions 1985 dollars)
00
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
Cover
Reference
Case
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 1990
Alternative
Case
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover
Reference
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 1995
Alternative
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover
Reference
Case
0
0
0
0
650
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 2005
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
0
650
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover by
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
741
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
528
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Interim
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Only
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
-5
-97
-2
-10
-14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
199
199
126
126
129
142
PV(1%) 403 403 300
PV(5%) 608 608 424
PV(10%) 538 538 311
300
424
311
126
179
89
126
179
89
249
283
177
143
235
158
134
110
90
25
70
78
(•) Reference Case: Non-recoverable interim cover costs
(•*) Alternative Case: Recoverable iterim cover costs
-------
The revised summary total benefits tables for future mills are shown in Exhibits 6-26A,
6-16B, 6-26C, and 6-26D for the high production, 20-year baseline, and the revised
health-effects factors of 250 and 1000 fatal cancers per million-person-WLM, respec-
tively. Revised total benefits tables for existing mills are presented in Exhibits 6-27A,
6-27B, 6-27C, and 6-27D.
184
-------
EXHIBIT 6-26(A):
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
Single Cell -
Reference
Case(*)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.8
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12.9
16.3
123.1
251.3
Cover in 5 Years
Alternative
Case(**)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.1
4.8
5.5
10.7
12.5
14.0
20.3
22.9
21.0
27.3
29.9
27.3
32.8
242.0
476.0
FUTURE MILLS:
(avoided fatal cancers)
Phased Disposal
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
8.2
10.3
12.7
13.6
13.0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16.9
126.1
268.2
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.3
2.9
3.4
5.2
7.5
8.6
10.9
13.8
15.3
15.6
18.5
19.9
19.7
22.1
249.0
510.4
HIGH PRODUCTION
Continuous
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13.1
14.0
13.7
15.5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
276.3
Disposal
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
2.8
5.1
5.9
9.2
12.5
14.2
18.4
22.7
25.1
26.0
30.2
32.4
32.5
36.0
252.0
527.0
(*) Reference Case: Low Production
(**) Alternative Case: High Production
-------
CO
EXHIBIT 6-26(B);
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT FUTURE MILLS: 20 YEAR BASELINE
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years
(avoided fatal cancers)
Phased Disposal
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Period Case(*)
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.8
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12.9
16.3
123.1
251.3
Alternative Reference
Case(**) Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
4.8
5.2
8.5
5.9
6.3
9.2
6.7
7.0
10.0
45.1
125.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
8.2
10.3
12.7
13.6
13.0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16.9
126.1
268.2
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
5.3
7.0
9.0
6.6
8.1
9.9
7.3
9.1
10.6
48.1
142.6
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13.1
14.0
13.7
15.5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
276.3
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
5.6
7.7
9.4
7.0
8.9
10.3
7.8
9.8
11.0
49.1
150.6
(*) Reference Case: 40 year baseline dry period
(**) Alternative Case: 20 year baseline dry period
-------
EXHIBIT 6-26(C):
oo
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT FUTURE MILLS: 250 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-PERSON-WLM
Single Cell -
Reference
Period Case(*)
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.5
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12.9
16.3
123.1
251.3
(avoided fatal cancers)
Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal
Alternative
Case(**)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.5
2.8
3.1
4.4
4.6
4.0
5.2
5.5
4.6
5.9
44.3
90.5
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
8.2
10.3
12.7
13.6
13.0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16.9
126.1
268.2
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
1.2
1.3
1.9
2.7
3.0
3.7
4.6
4.9
4.7
5.4
5.7
5.4
5.8
45.4
96.6
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13.1
14.0
13.7
15.5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
276.3
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.7
1.3
1.4
2.2
2.8
3.1
4.0
4.7
5.0
4.9
5.6
5.9
5.7
6.3
45.8
99.5
(*) Reference Case: 700 fatal cancers/million-person- WLM
(**) Alternative Case: 250 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
-------
EXHIBIT 6-26(D):
00
oo
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT FUTURE MILLS: 1000 FATAL
(avoided fatal cancers)
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
Reference
Case(*)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.5
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12.9
16.3
123.1
251.3
Alternative
Case(**)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
4.7
5.3
10.7
11.2
12.2
17.5
18.5
15.9
20.6
21.7
18.5
23.3
176.0
359.4
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
8.2
10.3
12.7
13.6
13.0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16.9
126.1
268.2
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.2
4.6
5.2
7.7
10.7
11.7
14.7
18.2
19.5
18.6
21.6
22.6
21.5
24.2
180.3
383.5
CANCERS/MILLION-PERSON-WLM
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
r0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13.1
14.0
13.7
15.5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
276.3
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
2.9
5.0
5.6
8.6
11.2
12.3
15.7
18.7
20.0
19.6
22.2
23.3
22.5
24.9
181.8
395.1
(*) Reference Case: 700 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
(**) Alternative Case: 1000 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
-------
EXHIBIT 6-27(A);
RESULTS OP BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLSi HIGH PRODUCTION
(avoided fatal cancers)
Cover by 1990
Cover by 1995
Cover by 2005
Cover by 2005 + Interim
Interim Only
oo
to
Reference Alternative
Period Case(*) Case(»«)
1986-90 -1.6 -1.
1991-95 19.4 18.
1996-00 19.9 19.
2001-05 21.4 20.
2006-10 22.3 22.
2011-15 22.3 22.
3016-20 22.3 22.
2021-25 22.3 22.
2026-30 18.4 18.
2031-35 4.5 5.
2036-40 4.2 5.
2041-45 3.
2046-50 -0.
2051-55 -0.
2056-60 -0.
2061-65 -0.
2066-70 -0.
2071-75 -0.
2076-80 -0.
2081-85 -0.
TOTAL 177
I 4.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
.4 177
9
7
1
9
2
2
2
2
4
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.9
Reference
Case
0.0
-1.6
20.0
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.5
4.5
4.3
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
158.5
Alternative
Case
0.0
-1.7
19.4
21.1
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.5
5.7
5. 5
4.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
159.7
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
120.5
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.5
5.7
5.5
4.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
123.7
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.3
12.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
159.1
Alternative
Case
4
10
10
11
22
22
22
22
18
5
5
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.2
.5
.7
,
.
'
m
.
.6
.7
.4
.3
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
160.5
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.2
12.0
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
11.6
2.9
2.8
2.1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
113.6
Alternative
Case
4.2
10.5
10.7
11.4
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
11.6
3.6
3.5
2.8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
113.9
(•) Reference Case: Low Production
(••) Alternative Case: High Production
-------
EXHIBIT 6-27(B);
RESULTS OP BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLSi 20 YEAR BASELINE
(avoided fatal cancers)
Cover by 1990
Cover by 1995
Cover by 2005
Cover by 2005 * Interim
Interim Only
-------
EXHIBIT 6-27(C);
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS; 250 FATAL CANCERS/MILL.ION-PERSON-WLM
(avoided fatal cancers)
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-40
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-60
2081-65
Cover
Reference
Case(»)
-1.6
19.4
19.9
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.4
4.5
4.2
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
by 1990
Alternative
Case<*«)
-0.6
7.0
7.2
7.7
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.6
1.6
1.5
1.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Cover by
Reference
Case
0.0
-1.6
20.0
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.5
4.5
4.3
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
1995
Alternative
Case
0.0
-0.6
7.2
7.7
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
6.7
1.6
1.6
1.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Cover by
2005
Reference Alternative
Case Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.1
6.7
1.7
1.6
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Cover by
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.3
12.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
1.5
4.0
4.1
4.3
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.1
6.7
1.7
1.6
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Interim
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.2
12.0
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
11.6
2.9
2.8
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Only
Alternative
Case
1.5
4.0
4.0
4.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.1
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL
177.4
63.9
158.5
58.6
120.5
43.4
159.1
57.3
(•) Reference Case: 700 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
(••) Alternative Case: 250 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
113.6
40.7
-------
EXHIBIT 6-27(D);
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS; 1000 FATAL CANCERS/M1LL1ON-PERSON-WLM
(avoided fatal cancers)
CO
to
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Cover
Reference
Case<«)
-1.6
19.4
19.9
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.4
4.5
4.2
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
by 1990
Alternative
Case(»»)
-2.3
27.7
28.5
30.6
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
26.3
6.4
6.0
4.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Cover
Reference
Case
0.0
-1.6
20.0
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.5
4.5
4.3
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
by 1995
Alternative
Case
0.0
-2.3
28.6
30.6
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
26.5
6.4
6.2
4.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Cover
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
by 2005
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
26.6
6.6
6.3
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Cover by
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.3
12.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
6.0
'15.9
16.2
17.2
32.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
26.6
6.6
6.3
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Interim
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.2
12.0
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
11.6
2.9
2.8
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Only
Alternative
Case
6.0
15.9
16.0
17.2
19.9
19.9
19.9
19.9
16.6
4.1
4.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL
177.4
253.7
158.5
226.7
120.5
172.3
159.1
227,5
(•) Reference Case: 700 fatal cancers/milllon-person-WLM
(••) Alternative Case: 1000 fatal eancers/miUion-person-WLM
113.6
162.4
-------
CHAPTER 7
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Any regulatory alternative will increase the cost of domestically produced ILOQ. The
0 O
amount of this impact will depend on the regulation selected. If it were determined
that the 1984 present value of the additional cost for future and existing disposal was
$630 million at a 10 percent discount rate, the impact on consumers and investors could
be evaluated. This figure is about 10 percent higher than any of the cost estimates
presented in Chapter 6. In this chapter we will evaluate the effect of such a regulatory
cost. The impact of any of the alternative regulations from Chapter 6 will be smaller
and can be scaled from the impacts calculated here. If the U.S. Uranium Industry
created a annuity payment to cover the added cost of this regulation, the payments
required per year would be $151 million in each year for 5 years, or $93 million for each
year for 10 years. In this chapter the impact of these cost increases on investors in this
industry or purchasers of electricity are presented.
7.1 INCREASED PRODUCTION COST
The added production cost resulting from the regulation may, or may not, be passed on
to the consumers of U0OQ (electric utilities). If the added cost is translated into higher
o o
prices for U9O0, then the consumers of electric power will ultimately be charged higher
O o
rates, particularly those customers of utilities with a high reliance on nuclear
generating capacity. If the U.S. uranium milling industry is unable to pass on the
disposal costs internalized by this regulation as a result of downward pressure on UgOg
prices from foreign competition or other factors then the added costs will ultimately be
paid by the investors in firms in the uranium mining and milling industry.
No attempt is made here to specify the supply and demand curves for U3Og, rather two
extreme situations are considered. The first case is based on the assumption that the
uranium mills are unable to pass any of the costs of the regulation on in higher UgOg
prices, and the second case is based on the assumption that the uranium mills are able
to recover all increased cost of the disposal through increased U«Og prices. This
presentation is designed to present two extreme possibilities for which the range of
193
-------
impacts will bracket the likely impacts. In fact, some of these costs will surely find
their way into the rate base of utilities with nuclear generating capacity. In addition,
since some owners of these existing impoundments are no longer operating nor do they
ever intend to operate in this industry in the future, their cost for disposal must be
borne by the investors in these firms.
It is assumed in the first case that no portion of the cost of the regulation can be passed
on to the buyer of U,Og. Selected average financial statistics for 1980-84 from the
domestic uranium industry (see Chapter 2 for details) are presented in Exhibit 7-1.
These data are compared to the present value cost impacts of the regulation and to the
required annuity payment to am mortize these costs over five or ten years. The 1980-84
period is one in which the industry was contracting and experiencing substantial losses
due to excess production capacity. The present value cost of the regulation would be
about four times the industry losses over this period. It is equal to about 20 percent of
the book value of industry assets and about 40 percent of industry liabilities. The ten
year annuity payment would require about a 6 percent annual increase in liabilities for
10 years to internalize the environmental control costs.
In the second case it is assumed that the uranium industry is able to recover the entire
increase in tailings disposal cost by charging higher UgOg prices. This increased input
cost to electric utilities will ultimately be added to the rate base and paid by electric
power consumers.
The revenue earned by the utility industry for generating 2.4 trillion kilowatthours of
electricity in 1984 was 142.31 billion dollars. The 1984 present value of the regulation
(630 million) is less than 1 percent (.44%) of the U.S. total electric power revenue for
the same year. Exhibit 7-2 is a presentation of the relationship of the regulatory cost
to power generation.
The increased cost of total generation reflects a change in the average cost per unit for
the nation. The regional impacts will vary from this mean, based in part, on the
dependence on nuclear power by region as shown in Exhibit 7-3. The ERGOT Region,
for example, with no nuclear generating capacity would probably feel no effect from
the cost of the regulation in higher electricity prices, and other regions, like MAIN and
SERC, would suffer the greatest affects. As for a specific customer or community, the
194
-------
EXHIBIT 7-1:
-------
EXHIBIT 7-2:
IMPACTS ON ELECTRIC POWER COST
1984a Generation
Million Kilowatthours
Dollars of Utility Revenue Per
Million Kilowattahours
Dollars of Present Value of
Added Cost of Disposal Per
Million Kilowatthours
Dollars of Annual Cost of
5 Year Annuity Per
Million Kilowatthours
Dollars of Annual Cost
of 10 Year Annuity Per
Million Kilowatthours
Total
Electric Power
Industry
2,416000
58,903
261
63
38
Nuclear
Electric Power
Only
327,000
4,351,000
1926
462
284
a
DOE 85b.
Note: Present value cost is assumed to be $630 million 1984 dollars. Five year
annuity payment is $151 million per year and ten year annuity payment is $93
million per year.
196
-------
a
DOE 85b.
EXHIBIT 7-3;
ELECTRICAL GENERATION BY NERC REGION 1984
a
Region
ECAR
ERGOT
MAAC
MAIN
MAPP(U.S.)
NPCC(U.S.)
SERC
SPP
WSCC(U.S.)
Total Generation
(GWH)
421,281
174,958
166,806
170,940
107,346
189,871
491,724
218,646
464,018
Nuclear Generation
(GWH)
23,175
34,040
46,323
17,127
44,973
126,774
10,973
24,248
Percent of
Total From Nuclear
5.5
20.4
27.1
16.0
23.7
25.8
5.0
5.2
197
-------
level of impact is dependent upon the percent of generation from nuclear that their
particular electrical utility utilizes. For example, Commonwealth Edison of Illinois and
Duke Power of North Carolina have two of the highest percentage of power from
nuclear sources, so their customers would be more severely impacted than customers in
other utilities.
7.2 REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) requires regulators to determine whether
proposed regulations would have a significant economic impact on a substantial number
of small businesses or other small entities. If such impacts exist, they are required to
consider specific alternative regulatory structures to minimize the small entity impacts
without compromising the objective of the statute under which the rule is enacted.
Alternatives specified for consideration by the RFA are tiering regulations,
performance rather than design standards, and small firm exemptions.
Most firms that own uranium mills are divisions or subsidiaries of major U.S. and
international corporations (See section 2.3 above). Many of these uranium mining and
milling operations are parts of larger diversified mining firms that are engaged in many
raw materials industries and uranium represents only a small portion of their
operations. Others are owned by major oil companies or by electric utilities who
engaged in vertical integration during the 1960's and 1970's. In 1977 there were 26
companies operating uranium mills and at the start of 1986 only two were operating.
The future of this industry suggests that only one or two of these existing facilities will
ever operate again. It is also expected that the high level of financial risk and capital
requirements will continue to attract only large diversified firms and electric utilities
to this industry. Thus, no significant impact on small businesses is expected.
198
-------
REFERENCES
DOE 85a Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry;
1984 Viability Assessment. DOE/EIS-0477, September 1985.
DOE 85b Department of Energy, Electric Power Annual 1984. DOE/EIA-0348(84),
August 1985.
199
986-151-096:1*251*6
------- |