United States        Office of          EPA 520/1-86-002
             Environmental Protection     Radiation Programs       January 1986
             Agency          Washington, D.C. 20460
             Radiation
&EPA       Proposed Standard for
             Radon - 222 Emissions from

             Tailings

             Draft Economic Analysis

-------
40 CFR Part 61                                                EPA 520/1-86-002
National Emission Standards
for Hazardous Air Pollutants
                    PROPOSED STANDARDS FOR RADON-222
              EMISSIONS FROM LICENSED URANIUM MILL TAILINGS

                         DRAFT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
                                 January 1986
                                  Prepared by:
                            Jack Faucett Associates
                             5454 Wisconsin Avenue
                                   Suite 1145
                          Chevy Chase, Maryland 20815
                          Office of Radiation Programs
                      U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                            Washington, D.C.  20460

-------
                         TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER      TITLE                                           PAGE

    1          INTRODUCTION	    1

    2          INDUSTRY PROFILE	    3

              2.1  SUPPLY	    3
              2.2  DEMAND	   16
              2.3  INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE  ...   23
              REFERENCES	   46

    3          PROFILE OF TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS AT LICENSED
                URANIUM MILLS	   48

    4          FORECASTS OF PRODUCTION, EMPLOYMENT, AND
                BASELINE HEALTH EFFECTS	   54

              4.1  PROJECTIONS OF DOMESTIC URANIUM
                   PRODUCTION	   55
              4.2  EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS	   78
              4.3  BASELINE ESTIMATES OF FUTURE RADON-222
                   EMISSIONS AND FATAL LUNG CANCERS	   78
              REFERENCES	   87

    5          ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES FOR MILL TAILINGS
                IMPOUNDMENTS	   89

              5.1  DESCRIPTION OF WORK PRACTICES	   89
              5.2  WORK PRACTICES FOR EXISTING TAILINGS
                   IMPOUNDMENTS	   93
              5.3  WORK PRACTICES FOR NEW TAILINGS
                   IMPOUNDMENTS	   94
              REFERENCES	   97

    6          BENEFITS AND COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
                PRACTICES	   98

              6.1  COST OF ALTERNATIVE PRACTICES	   98
              6.2  BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES  .  .  107
              6.3  ESTIMATED TOTAL SOCIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS
                   OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES	112
              6.4  SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS	172

    7          ECONOMIC IMPACTS	  193

              7.1  INCREASED PRODUCTION COST	193
              7.2  REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS	198

-------
                           LIST OF EXHIBITS
EXHIBIT     TITLE                                           PAGE

  2-1        TOTAL URANIUM CONCENTRATE PRODUCTION,
                1947-1984 	   5
  2-2         PRODUCTION OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE BY
                CONVENTIONAL MILLS AND OTHER SOURCES ...   6

  2-3         URANIUM MILL CAPACITY	   7

  2-4         IMPORTS OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE FOR
                COMMERCIAL USES	   8

  2-5         U.S. COMMERCIALLY-OWNED URANIUM INVENTORIES
                AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1983 AND 1984	10

  2-6         LINEAR APPROXIMATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF
                1983 AVERAGE COST OF URANIUM PRODUCTION.  .   12

  2-7         COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
                UNDERGROUND MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-
                THICKNESS RATIO OF 76 AND AN ORE GRADE
                OF 0.25 PERCENT U3Og	   13

  2-8         COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
                OPEN-PIT MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-THICKNESS
                RATIO OF 24 AND AN ORE GRADE OF
                0.20 PERCENT U3Og	   14

  2-9         REASONABLY ASSURED  RESOURCES	15

  2-10         STATUS OF U.S. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
                AS OF JUNE 30, 1985	19

  2-11         DELIVERIES OF URANIUM TO DOE ENRICHMENT
                PLANTS BY DOMESTIC UTILITIES	20

  2-12         EXPORTS OF URANIUM	21

  2-13         AVERAGE CONTRACT PRICES AND FLOOR PRICES
                OF MARKET PRICE CONTRACTS BY YEAR
                OF CONTRACT SIGNING	   24

  2-14         HISTORICAL NUEXCO EXCHANGE VALUES	25

  2-15         PRICES FOR FOREIGN-ORIGIN URANIUM AS
                OF JANUARY 1, 1984	26
                                  n

-------
                       LIST OF EXHIBITS: (Continued)

EXHIBIT      TITLE                                             PAGE

 2-16         CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, EMPLOYMENT, AND ACTIVE
                 MILLS:  CONVENTIONAL URANIUM
                 MILLING INDUSTRY	    27

 2-17         OPERATING STATUS AND CAPACITY OF LICENSED
                 CONVENTIONAL URANIUM MILLS AS OF
                 NOVEMBER 1985	    28

 2-18         EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.S. URANIUM MILLING
                 INDUSTRY BY STATE, 1984	    30

 2-19         URANIUM MILLING ACTIVITY IN THE
                 STATE OF WYOMING	    31

 2-20         FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM
                 INDUSTRY, 1980-1984	    34

 2-21(a)      KERR-MCGEE COPORATION URANIUM OPERATIONS:
                 FINANCIAL DATA, 1982-1984	    38

 2-21(b)      KERR-MCGEE CORPORATION URANIUM OPERATIONS:
                 RESERVES, PRODUCTION, PRICES, AND
                 DELIVERIES, 1980-1984	    38

 2-22         HOMESTAKE MINING COMPANY
                 URANIUM OPERATIONS: 1982-1984	    39

 2-23         RIO ALGOM URANIUM OPERATIONS, 1981-1983	    41

 2-24         PHELPS DODGE ENERGY OPERATIONS, 1981-1984  ...    42

 2-25(a)      UNION PACIFIC MINING OPERATIONS:
                 FINANCIAL INFORMATION, 1981-1984	    44

 2-25(b)      UNION PACIFIC URANIUM RESERVES AND
                 PRODUCTION	    44

  3-1         SUMMARY OF URANIUM MILL TAILINGS PILES	    49

  3-2         SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING
                 TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS UNDER CURRENT
                 CONDITIONS	    51

  3-3         SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL FATAL CANCERS
                 FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
                 UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS	    53
                                   in

-------
                      LIST OF EXHIBITS; (Continued)


EXHIBIT      TITLE                                            PAGE

  4-1         ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF UgOg, 1980-2000 .    56

  4-2         PROJECTED ELECTRICITY-GENERATION CAPACITY  . .    60

  4-3         SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY: 1980-1984 AND
              REFERENCE CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE
              YEAR 2000	    61

  4-4         SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY: 1980-1984 AND
              ALTERNATIVE-CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE
              THE YEAR 2000	    62

  4-5         POST-2000 PROJECTIONS OF ANNUAL DOMESTIC
              PRODUCTION OF UgOg	    64

  4-6         ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U~O8,
              1980-2085		    67

  4-7         TOTAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF UgOg	    68

  4-8         DOMESTIC URANIUM RESOURCES	    71

  4-9         PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
              IN 2085 UNDER VARIOUS SCENARIOS	    75

  4-10        AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN
              ELECRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085	    77

  4-11        AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN PER
              CAPITAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085  . .    79

  4-12        EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS:  1985-2085	    80

  4-13        NUMBER OF EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS IN USE
              AND NEW MILLS/IMPOUNDMENTS OPENED BY PERIOD
              FOR THE REFERENCE CASE AND THE ALTERNATE
              CASE	    84

  4-14        ESTIMATED COMMITTED FATAL LUNG CANCERS FROM
              RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING AND FUTURE
              TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS	    85

  4-15        ESTIMATED FATAL LUNG CANCERS FROM EMISSIONS
              OF RADON-222 FROM EXISTING AND FUTURE TAILINGS
              IMPOUNDMENTS	    86

  6-1         ESTIMATED COSTS OF BELOW-GRADE MODEL NEW
              TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS	    99
                                  IV

-------
                      LIST OF EXHIBITS: (Continued)
EXHIBIT

  6-2


  6-3



  6-4

  6-5


  6-6


  6-7



  6-8



  6-9



  6-10A



  6-1 OB


  6-1OC


  6-11A
TITLE
PAGE
  6-1 IB
  6-11C
ESTIMATED COSTS OF PARTIALLY BELOW-GRADE NEW
  MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS	100

CONSTRUCTION AND COVER COST STREAM AND
  PRESENT VALUE FOR ALTERNATIVE MODEL NEW
  TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS (BELOW GRADE)	102

COST OF FINAL COVER OPTION ON EXISTING PILES  . .  104

COST OF INTERIM COVER OPTIONS ON EXISTING
  PILES	  106

SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM MODEL
  NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS	108

SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS AND
  FATAL CANCERS AVOIDED DUE TO MODEL NEW
  TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS	  109

SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FOR EXISTING
  TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS GIVEN VARIOUS
  COVERS	110

SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED YEARLY FATAL CANCERS
  FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS FOR
  VARIOUS COVERS	  Ill

ADDED COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
  FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS
  AFTER FILLING	114

ADDED COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
  FUTURE URANIUM MILLS—PHASED DISPOSAL  ...  115

ADDED COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
  FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL .  116

GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND ADDED CUMULATIVE
  COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
  FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS
  AFTER FILLING	,119
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED
  COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
  AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL .
                                                             120
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST
  OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
  URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL	121

-------
                      LIST OF EXHIBITS: (Continued)
EXHIBIT

  6-12


  6-13 A



  6-13 B


  6-13 C



  6-14 A
TITLE
PAGE
  6-14B



  6-14C



  6-15


  6-16 A



  6-1 6B


  6-16 C



  6-16D


  6-16E



  6-16F
PRESENT VALUE COST OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
  PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS	    122

BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
  FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS
  AFTER FILLING	    124

BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
  FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL  ...    125

BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
  FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS
  DISPOSAL	    126

GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
  AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
  URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER
  FILLING	    127

GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
  AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
  URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL	    128

GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF
  AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT FUTURE
  URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL	    129

SUMMARY OF BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK
  PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS	    130

COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
  IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY
  1990	    132

COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
  MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 ....    133

COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
  IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY
  2000	    134

COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
  MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 ....    135

COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
  MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH
  INTERIM COVER	    136

COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
  MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH
  INTERIM COVER	    137
                                  VI

-------
                       LIST OF EXHIBITS: (Continued)
EXHIBIT

  6-16G



  6-16 H



  6-161


  6-17A



  6-17B



  6-17C



  6-17D



  6-17 E



  6-17F



  6-17G



  6-17H



  6-171


  6-18



  6-19
TITLE
PAGE
COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
  MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH
  INTERIM COVER	  138

COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUND-
  MENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH
  INTERIM COVER	  139

COST OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING URANIUM
  MILLS	  140

GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
  STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
  URANIUM MILLS BY 1990	  141

GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
  STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
  URANIUM MILLS BY 1995	  142

GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
  STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
  URANIUM MILLS BY 2000	  143

GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
  STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
  URANIUM MILLS BY 2005	  144
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
  STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
  URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER . .

GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
  STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
  URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH ITNERIM COVER . .

GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
  STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
  URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER . .

GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL
  STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
  URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER . .

GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF INTERIM COVER AT
  EXISTING URANIUM MILLS	
COMPARISON OF THE PRESENT VALUES OF TYPE 1
  AND TYPE 2 COSTS AS A FUNCTION OF
  THE REAL DISCOUNT RATE	
PRESENT VALUE COSTS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
  STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
  URANIUM MILLS, FOR VARIOUS ALTERNATIVES .
145
146
147
148
149
151
                                                                153
                                  vu

-------
                      LIST OF EXHIBITS; (Continued)

EXHIBIT      TITLE                                             PAGE

  6-20A       BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
              IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
              BY 1990	154

  6-20B       BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
              IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
              BY 1995	    155

  6-20C       BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
              IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
              BY 2000	    156

  6-20D       BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
              IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
              BY 2005	   157

  6-2OE       BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
              IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
              BY 1990 WITH ITERIM COVER	158

  6-20 F      BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
              IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
              BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER	159

  6-20G       BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
              IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
              BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER	   160

  6-20H       BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
              IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
              BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER	161

  6-201       BENEFITS OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING
              URANIUM MILLS	162

  6-21A       GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
              ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
              MILLS BY 1990	163

  6-21B       GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
              ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
              MILLS BY 1995	   164

  6-21C       GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
              ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING  URANIUM
              MILLS BY 2000	   165

  6-21D       GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
              ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
              MILLS BY 2005	   166

                                  viii

-------
                      LIST OF EXHIBITS; (Continued)

EXHIBIT      TITLE                                            PAGE

  6-21E       GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
               ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
               MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER	167

  6-21F       GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
               STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
               URANIUM  MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER  ...  168

  6-21G       GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
               STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING
               URANIUM  MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER  ...  169

  6-21H       GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILI-
               ZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM
               MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER	170

  6-211       GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING
               URANIUM  MILLS	  171

  6-22        FATALITIES  AVOIDED BY ALTERNATIVE WORK
               PRACTICES AT EXISTING MILLS, BY YEAR OF
               FINAL STABILIZATION	  173

  6-23        SUMMARY OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR  COSTS
               AND BENEFITS	  174

  6-24A       RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANAYSIS FOR
               FUTURE MILLS:  HIGH PRODUCTION	  176

  6-24B       RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR
               FUTURE MILLS:  20 YEAR BASELINE	  177

  6-24C       RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR
               FUTURE MILLS:  PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE
               DISPOSAL	  178

  6-24D       RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE
               MILLS:  RECOVERABLE INTERIM COVER COSTS  ...  179

  6-25A       RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING
               MILLS:  HIGH PRODUCTION	  180

  6-25B       RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT
               EXISTING MILLS:  20-YEAR BASELINE	  181

  6-25C       RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT
               EXISTING MILLS:  PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE
               DISPOSAL	  182

  6-25D       RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT
               EXISTING MILLS:  RECOVERABLE INTERIM
               COVER COSTS	  183

                                  ix

-------
                                   CHAPTER 1

                                 INTRODUCTION

EPA issued environmental standards for nuclear power operations (40 CFR Part 190) in
1977.  These standards limit the total radiation dose caused by radionuclide emissions
from  facilities that comprise  the uranium fuel cycle,  including uranium  mills and
tailings. However, the dose due to radon-222 was exempted from the standard. At the
time  40 CFR 190 was promulgated, there existed considerable uncertainty about the
public health impact of existing levels of radon-222 as well as uncertainty about the
best method for management of new man-made sources of radon-222. It was decided to
consider radon-222 separately under a subsequent standard.

When EPA promulgated emission standards under the Clean Air Act for radionucKdes
emitted from licensed commercial processing facilities  (40 CFR 192) in  October of
1983, those NRC facilities previously  regulated under 40 CFR  190, such as uranium
mills,  were  exempted  because  they were subject to a rule that provided protection
substantially equivalent to that of the  Clean  Air Act rule.   Consequently, radon-222
emissions from operating uranium mills were not included in either of the above rules.

EPA did consider radon-222 emissions from licensed uranium  mills when standards (10
CFR  192) were issued  under  the  Uranium  Mill Tailings  Radiation  Control Act
(UMTRCA) in 1983 for the  management of tailings at locations that are licensed by the
NRC  or Agreement States  under Title II of that law.  But the final rule did not  limit
radon-222 emissions until after the closure of  the facilit" and termination of the mill
operating license except  to  apply the "as low as reasonably achievable"  (ALARA)
principle in establishing management procedures and regulations during operation.  EPA
did state, at the time UMTRCA standards were promulgated, that an Advanced Notice
of Proposed Rulemaking would  be issued to consider control of radon-222 from tailings
piles during the operational period of an uranium mill.

On October  31, 1984,  EPA announced  in  the Federal Register an  Advance Notice of
Proposed  Rulemaking to inform  interested parties  that the Agency is  considering
standards for  radon-222  emissions  for licensed  uranium ore  processing  facilities
(uranium mills) under the Clean  Air Act. Subsequently, EPA entered into an agreement

-------
with the  Sierra  Club  to  promulgate  these standards  by May  1,  1986.   This  was
formalized by  a court  stipulation from  the  United States District  Court  for the
Northern District of California.

This document presents the findings of an  economic analysis of alternative proposed
work practices for controlling radon-222  emissions during the  operation of  licensed
uranium mills.  The report contains separate  chapters which discuss the:

       •      current status of the domestic uranium milling industry;

       •      current radon-222 emissions and risk estimates;

       •      baseline  forecasts of production,  emissions, and health  effects in the
             absence of the proposed rules;

       •      descriptions of proposed alternative work practices for controlling radon-
             222 emissions from tailings impoundments;

       •      estimates of the benefits and costs of these alternative work practices;

       •      the probable economic impacts of the proposed rules; and

       •      consideration of the financial impacts of the proposed rule on the owners
             of existing and  future mills,  and the  consumers  of nuclear-generated
             electricity.

-------
                                    CHAPTER 2

                                INDUSTRY PROFILE

The U.S. uranium milling industry is an integral part of a domestic uranium production
industry that  includes companies engaged in uranium  exploration, mining, milling, and
downstream activities leading to the production of fuel for nuclear power plants.  The
product of uranium  milling is uranium  concentrate, also referred to as uranium oxide,
yellowcake, or U^Og.  Uranium concentrate may  be  produced either from mined and
milled ore or  through alternative sources such as  solution mines, heap leaching,  mine
water,  mill  tailings,  low-grade  stockpiles, and as a  byproduct of other activities.
Conventional  production from mined and milled ore is the focus of this report.  In 1984,
conventional  production amounted to 64.4 percent of total U3Og production of 7,450
tons (DOE 85a).

The following pages describe the supply and demand characteristics of the conventional
uranium milling  industry.   Section 2.1 provides an overview of current  and historical
sources of U3Og (domestic production, imports, and inventories) and  analyzes the cost
of  production.   Section 2.2 characterizes the use of uranium  by the nuclear power
industry,  describes  factors influencing demand, and  reviews uranium pricing mecha-
nisms.   Section  2.3  concludes  the chapter with a review of industry  structure  and
performance,  including industry and individual company statistics on  capacity, produc-
tion, employment, mill location, and financial performance.

                                   2.1  SUPPLY

                               2.1.1 Sources of Supply

The uranium  used  to fuel nuclear  reactors  is  supplied  by domestic and  foreign
producers; the removal of uranium  from utility  inventories; and secondary market
transactions such as producer-to-producer sales, utility-to-utility sales and loans,  and
utility-to-producer sales. The role of each is described in the following sections.
Production from alternative sources does  not  produce the mill  tailings  that are  the
object of the proposed regulation. Two of the alternative sources, mine water and heap
leaching, frequently go through the secondary milling circuit but never the primary circuit.
They therefore contribute to the liquid portion of mill tailings but not the  solid portion.
The other alternative sources are not milled.

-------
                               Domestic Production

 Exhibit 2-1 shows trends in domestic uranium production from 1947 to 1984, by state.
 Total production was relatively constant at  10,500 to 12,500 tons per year until  1977,
 when it began an increase that peaked in 1980 at 21,852 tons.  Production has declined
 in each year since, reaching only 7,441 tons in 1984 (DOE 85b).

 Coinciding with the overall decline in the domestic production industry is a  decline in
 the  share of production represented by conventional mills, as  production from  other
 sources has remained fairly steady. Conventional milling has historically accounted for
 over 90 percent of U.S. production.  In 1983, the conventional share of production  fell
 to 70.6 percent, and in 1984 dropped again, to 64.7 percent (Exhibit 2-2). The result has
 been severe overcapacity and mill closings (DOE 85a).  Milling capacity, which almost
 doubled  between 1975  and 1980 when the price of uranium was  high and optimistic
 demand forecasts stimulated investment in milling facilities, once enjoyed a utilization
 rate of 94 percent (JFA 85a). In March 1985, capacitv utilization was about 71 percent
 at operating mills.  The number of operating mills has declined dramatically also, from
 20 in 1981 to only  two in June 1985 (DOE 85a).  Industr^ sources indicate that  the two
 remaining mills are now operating at less  than 50 percent of capacity (DOE  85a).
 Uranium mill capacities and utilization levels are fisted in Exhibit 2-3.

                                     Imports

 A second source of uranium is the import market. From 1964 to 1976, foreign uranium
 was  effectively banned from U.S.  markets by a law prohibiting the enrichment of
 imports for domestic use.   This restriction was lifted gradually after 1977, and was
 eliminated completely by 1984.  As a  result, imports grew from zero prior to 1975, to
 37.4 percent of U.S. requirements in  1984  (DOE 85a).   The primary sources of U.S.
 uranium imports are Canada, South Africa, and Australia. In 1983, 66 percent of U.S.
 uranium  imports were  from  Canada,  26 percent were  from South  Africa, and  the
 remaining eight  percent were from  various other nations (DOE 84a). Exhibit 2-4 shows
 the history of U.S. imports from 1967 through 1984.*
The unusually high 1982  figure of 8,500 tons included a large  exchanere transaction
which should be excluded to obtain a more realistic picture of imports.  Eliminating this
transaction, 1982 imports were only slightly higher than in 1983.

-------
                                           EXHIBIT 2-1:
                    TOTAL URANIUM CONCENTRATE PRODUCTION, 1947-1984
                                         (Short Tons UO)
Year(s)
1947-1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Colorado
29,652
1,423
1,340
1,614
1,678
(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(0
New Mexico
54,301
5,076
5,933
6,192
5,943
5,771
5,305
5,464
4,634
4,951
5,191
6,059
6,779
8,539
7,423
7,751
6,206
3,906
2,830
1,458
Texas
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(b)
(0
(c)
(c)
(c)
2,651
3,408
3,141
2,131
1,600
1,310
Utah
28,924
(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(0
(c)
(c)
Wyoming
18,449
2,248
2,667
2,873
3,063
3,654
3,487
4,216
5,159
3,767
3,447
4,046
4,990
5,329
5,452
6,036
4,355
2,521
2,630
1,560
Others3
8,380
1,842
1,313
1,689
925
3,480
3,481
3,220
3,442
2,810
2,962
2,642
3,170
4,618
3,210
4,657
5,535
4,876
3,519
3,113
Total
139,706
10,589
11,253
12,368
11,609
12,905
12,273
12,900
13,235
11,528
11,600
12,747
14,939
18,486
18,736
21,852
19,237
13,434
10,579
7,441
 Includes, for various  years, Arizona, Colorado, Florida,  Louisiana, South Dakota,  Texas,  Utah,  and
 Washington.
 Data were not collected.
'Included in  the "Others" category.
 Source:  DOE 85b

-------
                                 EXHIBIT 2-2;
                    PRODUCTION OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE
                           BY CONVENTIONAL MILLS
                             AND OTHER SOURCES
                                  1974-1984
                               (Short Tons U3Og)
a



Year
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Saleable U.


Conventional
Production
17,172
16,877
18,903
15,998
10,447
7,760
4,813
tOfl obtained from


Other
Production8
1,315
1,860
2,950
3,239
2,988
2,820
2,628
in situ leaching and


Total
Production
18,486
18,736
21,852
19,237
13,434
10,579
7,441
as a byproduct of other
Conventional
Production
As Percent
Of Total
92.9
90.0
86.5
83.2
77.8
73.3
64.7
processing.
 Source: DOE 85b

-------
                                 EXHIBIT 2-3;
                          URANIUM MILL CAPACITY
                             (Tons of Ore Per Day)
1981
1982
1983
1984
March 1985
Total
Capacity
54,050
55,050
51,650
48,450
49,450
Operating
Capacity
49,800
33,650
29,250
19,250
11,950
Operating
Capacity
Utilization
Rate
83
74
58
64
71
Total
Capacity
Utilization
Rate
77
45
33
25
18
Source:  DOE 85a

-------
                               EXHIBIT 2-4;
                   IMPORTS OF URANIUM CONCENTRATE
                          FOR COMMERCIAL USES
                                 1974-1984
                             (Short Tons UO)
Year of
Delivery
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Imports
0
700
1,800
2,800
2,600
1,500
1,800
3,300
8,550
4,100
6,250
Source: DOE 85b

-------
Forecasts of import penetration call for the import share to grow through the 1990's.
The  Department  of Energy projects that without government intervention,  between
1990  and 2000 imports  will range between  54 and  69 percent of domestic utility
requirements, depending on demand levels.   Government action  is a real  possibility
however.  Public Law  97-415 calls for a special study of the uranium industry at any
time that executed contracts or options  for source  material will result in greater than
37.5 percent of actual or projected domestic uranium  requirements for any two-con-
secutive-year period. According to DOE estimates, current import commitments make
up no more  than  32 percent of U.S. utility requirements in any year between 1985 and
2000.  However,  if utilities continue to turn  to foreign  sources at the rates seen in
recent years, executed contracts for imports will rise  above 37.5 percent of require-
ments and possibly trigger Federal intervention (DOE 85a).

                                   Inventories

Utilities hold uranium inventories in order to meet changes in the scheduling of various
stages of the fuel cycle, such as minor delays in deliveries of uranium feed.  Uranium
inventories  also protect the  utilities against disruption of nuclear fuel supplies.   The
average "forward coverage" currently desired by domestic utilities (in terms of forward
reactor operating requirements) is 18  months for  natural uranium  (U3Og)  and  seven
months for enriched uranium hexafluoride (UFg) (DOE 85a).

Exhibit 2-5  fists inventories of commercially owned natural and enriched uranium held
in the United States as of December 31,  1982, 1983, and 1984.  DOE-owned inventories
are not included.  The uranium inventory owned by utilities alone at the end of 1984
represented  almost  five years of forward coverage.   Including the  11,950 tons of
inventories  held by domestic uranium producers and fuel fabricators would extend the
forward coverage by nine months (DOE 85a).

                          Secondary Market Transactions

The  secondary market  for uranium  includes producer-to-producer sales, utility-to-
utility sales and loans,  and  utility-to-producer sales.  The  secondary market, by
definition, does not increase the supply of uranium, only the alternatives  for purchasing
it.  As such, secondary transactions can  have  a significant impact on the demand  for
new production and on the year-to-year  changes in inventories.  The secondary market

-------
                                EXHIBIT 2-5;
             U.S. COMMERCIALLY-OWNED URANIUM INVENTORIES
                     AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1983 AND 1984
                         (Short Tons U3Og Equivalent)
1982
Owner Category
Utilities
Suppliers
TOTAL
Natural
49,550
18,550
68,100
Enriched
18,950
350
19,300
1983
Natural
46,600
16,900
63,500
Enriched
32,050
350
32,400
1984
Natural
47,950
11,450
59,400
Enriched
31,800
500
32,300
Source: DOE 85b
                                  10

-------
has been  significant in recent years.   During  1983,  sales of  2,600  tons  of  U3Og
equivalent were made between domestic utilities and suppliers in the secondary market.
During 1984, this quantity decreased to 850 tons (DOE 85a).

                             2.1.2 Cost of Production

In 1984, the average cost of producing U3Og from ore mined and milled in the United
States was approximately $35 per  pound (JFA 85a).  Costs of production  vary greatly
among producers, however, ranging from $11.50 to $53.00 (Exhibit  2-6).  Exhibits 2-7
and 2-8 fist the 1977 costs of production, by cost  element, for sample underground and
open-pit mines. Capital costs for  mill construction ranged from $1.99 to $3.98 per ton
of ore processed, equal to 5.3 to 12.5 percent of the cost of production.  Mill operating
costs ranged from  $5.41 to  $10.16 per  ton of ore, equal to  15.0 to 31.1 percent of
production cost.  Higher costs are generally associated  with smaller capacity mines.
The  exhibits  also show that milling costs are higher for low-grade deposits than for
high-grade deposits, since the amount of ore that must be processed to yield a pound of
U3Og  is  greater for  the  former.  Since the average  grade of  ore  processed has
decreased (from 0.154 in 1977 to 0.128 percent U3Og in 1983), the share of production
costs accounted for by milling has probably increased (Zi 79).

Reasonably assured resources  of  uranium in  each of 32  countries are  listed, by cost
category, in Exhibit 2-9.  As the  exhibit shows,  while the U.S. has  20  percent of the
total reserves,  it accounts  for only 9 percent of the lower cost reserves (less than $36
per pound).  Five  countries  — Australia,  Brazil, Canada, Niger,  and South Africa —
have greater reserves in the lower cost category (OECD 83). In 198"  Canada and South
Africa accounted for 90 percent of uranium imports (DOE 84a).

The differences in cost of production for the U.S. and other countries can  be explained
to a large extent by the grade of ore available in each country. The cost  of producing
uranium is largely a function of the grade of  the ore in the ore body.   Since the U.S.
Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) include uranium in known mineral deposits of such
size, grade, and configuration that it could be recovered within the  given production
cost ranges,  with currently proven mining and processing technology.   Estimates of
tonnage and grade are based on specific sample data, measurements of  the deposits, and
knowledge  of deposit  characteristics.   Reasonably Assured  Resources have a  high
assurance of existence.
                                    11

-------
                            EXHIBIT 2-6;

         LINEAR APPROXIMATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF 1983

             AVERAGE COST OF U.S. URANIUM PRODUCTION
55
   0  9  Wt32013J0J54045505»f0tf57079*0«590«5ioo
                    Percent of Present Production Level
     Source: DOE 84b
                               12

-------
                                 EXHIBIT 2-7:
COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
UNDERGROUND MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-THICKNESS RATIO
OF 76 AND AN ORE GRADE OF 0.25 PERCENT U3°8
(in dollars per short ton of ore, in 1977 dollars)
Capacity (Short Tons of Ore Per Day)

Capital Costs
Mine primary development
Mine plant and equipment
Mill construction
Subtotal
Operating Costs
Mining
Hauling
Milling
Subtotal
Total
500

7.99
1.73
3.98
13.70

31.70
1.73
10.16
43.59
57.29
1,000

6.26
1.35
3.24
10.85

27.17
1.73
7.87
36.77
47.62
2,000

5.30
1.06
2.66
9.02

24.90
1.73
6.56
33.19
42.21
3,000

5.01
0.96
2.32
8.29

23.77
1.73
5.90
31.40
39.69
5,000

4.53
0.87
1.99
7.39

22.87
1.73
5.65
30.25
37.64
Source: Zi 79
                                  13

-------
                                 EXHIBIT 2-8:
COST ESTIMATES FOR URANIUM PRODUCTION FROM
OPEN-PIT MINES WITH A DEPTH-TO-THICKNESS RATIO
OF 24 AND AN ORE GRADE OF 0.20 PERCENT U3°8
(in dollars per short ton of ore, in 1977 dollars)
Capacity (Short Tons of Ore Per Day)

Capital Costs
Mine primary development
Mine plant and equipment
Mill construction
Subtotal
Operating Costs
Mining
Hauling
Milling
Subtotal
Total
500

10.77
0.35
3.98
15.10

5.43
1.41
9.92
16.76
31.86
1,000

9.54
.35
3.24
13.13

5.43
1.41
7.62
14.46
27.59
2,000

9.18
0.35
2.66
12.19

5.43
1.41
6.31
13.15
25.34
3,000

9.09
0.35
2.32
11.76

5.43
1.41
5.65
12.49
24.25
5,000

8.92
0.35
1.99
11.26

5.43
1.41
5.41
12.25
23.51
Source:  Zi 79
                                 14

-------
                                  EXHIBIT 2-9;
                       REASONABLY ASSURED RESOURCES
                              (1,000  Tons of Uranium)
                           Data available January 1, 1983

Countries
Algeria6'6
Argentina
Australia
Austria6
Brazil8
Cameroon, Republic of
Canada
Central African Republic8'
Chilea'g
Denmark
Egypt
Finland8
France
Gabon
Germany, Federal Republic of
Greece
India
Italy
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Mexico
Namibia
Niger'0
Peru8
Portugal ,
Somalia '
South Africa
Spain .
Sweden
Turkey8
United States of America
Zaire6'0
TOTAL (rounded)

Less than
26
18.8
314
0
163.3
0
176
18
0
0
0
0
56.2
18.7
0.9
0.4
31.7
2.9
7.7
0
2.9
119
160
0.5
6.7
0
191
15.7
2
2.5
131.3
1.8
1,468
Cost Range
$36/lb $36-$59Ab
	 	
4.5
22
0.3
—
0
9
—
2.3
27
0
3.4
11.3
4.7
4.2
0
10.9
—
—
10
16
—
1.5
6.6
122
4.5
37
2.1
275.9
575

Total
26
23.3
336
0.3
163.3
0
185
18
2.3
27
0
3.4
67.5
23.3
5.1
0.4
42.6
2.9
7.7
10
2.9
135
160
0.5
8.2
6.6
313
20.2
39
4.6
407.2
1.8
2,043
aUranium contained in-situ.
 Uranium contained in mineable ore.
°OECD (NEA)/IAEA:  "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," Paris, 1977.
dOECD(NEA)/IAEA: "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," Paris, 1979.
eOECD(NEA)/IAEA: "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," Paris, 1982.
^Includes 35,000 tons  uranium in the Ranstad deposit from  which no uranium production
 is allowed due to a veto by local authorities for environmental reasons.
g Assigned to cost category by OECD.
 Source:    OEcn 83
15

-------
 has lower grade ore than many other large producing countries, it suffers a disadvan-
 tage  in  costs (JFA 85).   A dramatic  example  of  this competitive disadvantage is
 provided by comparing the quality of  Canadian and U.S.  ore.  According to a  1984
 article in Chemical Week, a ton of Canadian ore yields 40 to 60 pounds of U3Og, while a
 ton of U.S. ore yields only four pounds (CW 84).

                                  2.2   DEMAND

 Domestic uranium mill operators have two markets for  their production:  the U.S.
 nuclear power industry and exports.  The nuclear power industry  is by far the more
 important  of the  two.  In  1984, 1,100 tons  of UgOg were exported, and current
 commitments for exports total only 3,850 tons for 1985-2000 (DOE  85a). Military uses,
 once the only source of demand for uranium, have been supplied solely by government
 stockpiles since  1970 (DOE 84a).

 Demand for domestic  uranium  has declined for  the  past five  years. In 1979, utilities
 delivered 15,450 tons  of domestic uranium  oxide to DOE for  enrichment,  42 percent
 more than 1983 deliveries.  Exports too have declined substantially.  In 1979, exports
 amounted to 3,100 tons, almost three  times  as much  as in 1984.  A  number of negative
 forces have  combined  to cause  the current depressed state of the industry.  Perhaps
 most importantly, the growth  in electricity generated by  nuclear plants  and  the
 expansion of nuclear power capacity has been much slower than had been forecasted in
 the mid 1970's due in part to numerous construction delays  and cancellations.  Second,
 as discussed in Section  2.1, imports have begun to play a major role in the U.S. uranium
 market.  The import restrictions in effect from 1964 to 1977 have  undergone  a phased
 withdrawal, and as of  1985 there are no import limitations.   The result has been a
 steady increase  in uranium imports from nations possessing high grade (and  thus  low
 cost) uranium deposits. Expectations are that a growiner portion of utility requirements
 will  be supplied  by foreign-origin uranium during the second half of this decade (JFA
 85).

 A third  factor  contributing to the  current downturn  in  the uranium  industry, also
 discussed in  Section 2.1, is the  large inventories being held  by both producers and
 utilities.  Utilities, anticipating a growing  need for uranium,  entered into long-term
 contracts to purchase  large amounts of domestically produced uranium.   As actual
needs fell short of expected needs due to nuclear power  plant  construction delays and
 cancellations, large inventories  began   to  accumulate.    These inventory supplies,

                                      16

-------
currently estimated to cover four to five years of utility requirements, adversely affect
suppliers in two ways.  They may extend the downturn in uranium demand for a number
of years by decreasing utility needs to enter new contracts.  Also, high interest rates
have increased inventory holding costs, leading some utilities to contribute  to current
excess supply by offering inventory stocks for sale on the spot market (JFA 85a).

The focus of the remainder of this section is on total U.S. demand for uranium, not just
on demand for domestic production or production  from conventional mills.  The  first
subsection details historical uses of uranium.  The concluding subsection provides a
brief description of uranium prices and pricing mechanisms.

                                2.2.1  Uranium Uses

                                Military Applications

In the  early  1950's, the U.S. government's  need  for uranium  for  defense uses  far
exceeded the world's production  capability.  A federally funded production  incentives
program  was then  instituted.   The  incentives program was  so effective that the
government phased it out in the 1960's and terminated  its purchase program in 1970.
The government still has sufficient stockpiles to meet military  requirements well into
the future.

Though Federal consumption data are not available  to  the public, apparent consumption
can be estimated from analysis of changes in stockpiles. Stocks held by the Department
of Energy between 1982 and 1984 were as follows:

                                 Thousand Short Tons of U3Og  Equivalent
Natural Uranium
20.30
20.50
20.50
Enriched Uranium
57.45
58.10
59.20
Total Uranium
77.75
78.60
79.20
   January 1, 1984
   January 1, 1983
   January 1, 1982

Inventory drawdown equaled 600 short tons in 1982, and 850 short tons in 1983. As the
government is not believed either to buy or sell uranium currently, inventory drawdown
is assumed equal to government consumption (DOE 84a).
                                        17

-------
                                Nuclear Power Plants

 Since  1971,  utilities,  which use uranium  as fuel  for nuclear power plants, have been
 virtually the only source of demand  for  current uranium  production.   Commercial
 generation of nuclear powered electricity began in 1957 with the operation of the first
 central station  reactor at Shippingport, Pennsylvania.  At the end of 1983,  80 nuclear
 reactors  were  licensed to operate in the  United States, totalling 64.4 gigawatts of
 generating capacity (DOE 84c)

 Demand  for uranium  by utilities may be directly linked  to  the  fuel requirements of
 currently operating or planned nuclear power plants.  The status of  U.S. nuclear power
 plants as of June  30, 1985 is shown in Exhibit 2-10.   Because of the long  lead times
 associated with the ordering, construction and  permitting of nuclear power plants it is
 extremely unlikely that any additional  orders for  new  nuclear  plants will result in
 operable capacity before 1996 (DOE 85c).

 Historical consumption data for utilities are not available.  The closest approximation is
 statistics on deliveries by utilities of uranium to DOE enrichment plants. Deliveries for
 1977 to 1984 are listed in Exhibit 2-11.

                                      Exports

 Exports  of uranium by producers have declined in every year since 1979.  In 1984, at
 1,100 tons of UgOg, they were at their lowest level since 1976. Current commitments
 for  exports  total  only 4,400 tons for 1985-2000  (DOE 85b).  Exports for the years
 1967-1984 are shown in Exhibit 2-12.

                                   2.2.2 Pricing

 Two   basic   types   of   pricing   arrangements    dominate   the   procurement   of
 uranium:  contract pricing and market pricing.   In  procurements with contract pricing,
prices and their escalation factors, if any, are  determined when the contract is signed.
In procurements with  market pricing, the price is  commonly determined just before
delivery  and  is based on the market price prevailing at that  time.  Some market price
contracts contain a floor price, set at  the time  the contracts is signed, that serves as a
minimum  on  the eventual settled price.  Pricing arrangements that cannot be classified

                                       18

-------
                                  EXHIBIT 2-10;

                    STATUS OF U.S. NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

                              AS OF JUNE 30, 1985
Status
Operable

Totar 	
In Construction Pipeline


Canceled, With Extension of Construction
Permit Requested 	
Total 	

Total 	

Number
of
Reactors
86
5
91
4
26
7
1
38
2
131
Net Design
Capacity
(GWe)
71. la
6.0
77.0
4.1
29.7
7.3
1.1
42.2
2.2
121.4
alncludes Three Mile Island 1 (819 MWe), which has an operating license but remained in
 an extended shutdown mode at publication time. Three Mile Island 2, Dresden 1, and
 Humboldt Bay are not included.

 Total capacity may not equal sum of components, due to independent rounding.

 Source:  DOE 85c
                                  19

-------
                              EXHIBIT 2-11:
           DELIVERIES OF URANIUM TO DOE ENRICHMENT PLANTS
                         BY DOMESTIC UTILITIES

Year
1977 ....
1978 ....
1979 ....
1980 ....
1981 ....
1982 ....
1983 ....
1984 ....

j
(
U.S.
Origin
. . . . 14,250
. . . . 11,950
. . . . 15,450
. . . . 11,150
. . . . 10,050
. . . . 13,550
. . . . 10,850
. . . . 8,400

Amount Delivered
iShort Tons U3Og)
Foreign
Origin
700
750
1,600
1,200
1,150
3,000
2,200
5,750


Total
14,950
12,700
17,050
12,350
11,200
16,550
13,050
14 150

Sources: DOE 84a, DOE 85b
                              20

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 2-12;

                              EXPORTS OF URANIUM
                                        a
                            (Thousand Short Tons of U3Og)
                                    Historical Exports

Year
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Total
Exports
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
3.10
1.65
1.10
Producer
Exports
0.7
0.8
0.5
2.1
0.2
0.1
0.6
1.5
0.5
0.6
2.0
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.2
2.2
N.A.
N.A.
aTotal exports  include  exports  by  utilities,  producers and  other suppliers  (reactor
 manufacturers and fuel fabricators).  Data for exports by  utilities and other suppliers
 were not collected prior to 1982.

 N.A. = Not Available.
 Sources:
DOE 84a, DOE 85a
                                        21

-------
 as  either market or contract pricing are grouped  in a third category.   This  "other"
 category refers primarily to supply arrangements wherein  the buyer has direct  control
 of  a uranium property.  Among  1983  deliveries  of  uranium,  41 percent used contract
 pricing,  55  percent used  market pricing,  and  four percent  used  "other"  pricing
 arrangements (DOE 84a).

 The concept of market pricing is probably the most  complex of the three types. While
 it is common to refer to a  "market" or "spot" price for uranium, there is actually no
 centralized  spot  or futures market.   Contracts  are  negotiated  either between  a
 producer and a utility, through  a middleman such  as a  nuclear power  plant manu-
 facturer, or through a broker. The price commonly referred to as the "spot price" for
 uranium  is  a price  published by  the  Nuclear Exchange  Corporation (NUEXCO), the
 principal uranium broker.   This  price, which NUEXCO calls the uranium "exchange
 value" is a monthly estimate of the price  at which transactions for immediate delivery
 could have been concluded as of the last day of the month (DOE 83).

                      Historical Prices and Pricing  Mechanisms

 Prior to 1968, prices were  largely determined by the Atomic Energy Commission. In
 the early years of the commercial uranium  market, 1968 through 1973,  the price of
 uranium  declined  and remained  low  despite conditions of excess long term demand.
 Beginning in 1973 the price of uranium  jumped due to immediate industry requirements,
 a surge in long term contracting due  in part to  changes in procedures for enrichment
 service contracts, and other factors.

 At  the same  time,  the terms under which long-term contracts were priced began to
 change.  Until 1973 contracting was typically under fixed price contracts with inflation
 provisions.  However, in 1973 producers resisted  signing fixed price contracts because,
 due to production cost increases, they  were losing money on previous  fixed price
 contracts and because they anticipated price rises in the future. In 1974, when uranium
 became a seller's market, market price contracts became  increasingly popular.  These
 contracts were written  to guarantee the producer a  base rate-of-return on investment.
 In a short time, market price contracts became the norm.

 In 1979-1980, the sellers' market for uranium ended and the uranium market witnessed a
sharp decline in prices due to postponements and  cancellations of nuclear reactors, the
                                        22

-------
build-up of uranium  inventories at utilities, and growing  competition from low-priced
imported uranium.   A sharp  decline in the nominal price of uranium began in  1980,
dropping from over $40 per pound of UoOg at the end of 1979 to $23.50 per pound by
August  1981.   In  real terms  (adjusted  for  inflation)  the  price had actually begun
dropping in 1976.  The price  in August 1981 in constant dollars was half of what it had
been in 1976. The price has continued to drop slowly from 1980 through 1984 (DOE 83).
Historical average  contract  prices  and  floor  prices of  market  price contracts are
provided in Exhibit 2-13.   Historical NUEXCO exchange values,  or "spot prices" are
listed in Exhibit 2-14.

                          Prices of Foreign-Origin Uranium

Prices of imported uranium are substantially lower than domestic prices.  The average
price paid for 1983  deliveries  of imported  uranium was  $26.16 per pound of UgOg,
approximately one-third less  than the  amount paid for  domestic-origin uranium (DOE
84a). Exhibit  2-15 shows  the weighted average price paid by domestic customers for
1981  to 1983  deliveries   of foreign-origin  uranium and projected prices for  1984
deliveries.

                2.3  INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND  PERFORMANCE

The number of firms participating in the domestic uranium milling industry has declined
in recent years.  In 1977, there  were  26 companies that owned active uranium mills. In
1983, the number had  fallen  to 11, and by June 1985, there  were only 2 (DOE 84b; PEI
85a). The contraction of  the industry can also be seen in  trends in employment and
capital expenditures (Exhibit  2-16).  Capital expenditures  in 1984 were only $4 million,
compared to $287  miUion  in  1979 (1984 doUars) (DOE 85a; DOE 84a).  Employment in
1984  was a  low 987 person-years, compared to 3236 person-years in 1979 (DOE 85b;
DOE 80).

                          2.3.1 Mill Capacity and Output

Mining and milling production data for individual companies are collected  by DOE but
are not  available to  the public.  However, some aggregate data are  published.  During
1984, the top 4 firms accounted for 55  percent  of  mill output, and the  top  8 for 87
percent (DOE 85a). Mill capacities by firm and mill are listed in Exhibit 2-17.
                                       23

-------
                                  EXHIBIT 2-13:
AVERAGE CONTRACT PRICES AND FLOOR PRICES

OF MARKET
BY YEAR OF
PRICE CONTRACTS
CONTRACT SIGNING

(January 1984 Dollars Per Pound of U3Og)
Year Of
Signing
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Average
Contract
Price
41.72
63.33
50.30
43.70
34.81
40.74
22.36
28.36
29.56
Average
Floor
Price
43.10
60.68
55.39
51.22
43.25
47.25
23.84
NR
26.00
Combined Average
Contract and
Floor Pricea
42.47
61.01
53.76
45.56
35.18
43.11
22.73
28.36
29.03
a
 Prices are weighted averages.
 NR = None reported.
 Source:  DOE 84a
                                    24

-------
                               EXHIBIT 2-14;

                 HISTORICAL NUEXCO EXCHANGE VALUES

                     (Nominal Dollars Per Pound of U30g)
                                      Nominal Dollars Per
                                         Pound of UgOg
                  Year                  As of December 31

                  1968                         5.50

                  1969                         6.20

                  1970                         6.15

                  1971                         5.95

                  1972                         5.95

                  1973                         7.00

                  1974                        15.00

                  1975                        35.00

                  1976                        41.00

                  1977                        43.00

                  1978                        43.25

                  1979                        40.75

                  1980                        27.00

                  1981                        23.50

                  1982                        20.25


Source: PNL 84
                                25

-------
                                EXHIBIT 2-15;
                   PRICES FOR FOREIGN-ORIGIN URANIUM
                           AS OF JANUARY 1, 1984
            Quantity-Weighted                                       Percentage
             Average Price Per               Amount                  Of Total
              Pound of UoOg                 of UoOg               Import Delivery
Year    (Year-of-Delivery Dollars)      (Thousand Short Tons)         Commitments Sampled

1981              32.90                      2.20                          67
1982              31.05                      2.00                          53
1983              26.16                      4.10                         100
1984              27.39                      3.25                          70

Sources:   DOE 84a, DOE 82
                                      26

-------
                                             EXHIBIT 2-16:
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, EMPLOYMENT, AND ACTIVE MILLS:
CONVENTIONAL URANIUM MILLING INDUSTRY

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

Capital Expenditures
(million constant 1984 $)
281
307
68
12
3
4

Employment
(Person-Years)
3>236
3,251
2,367
1,956
1,518
987

Active Number of Mills
At Year-End
N/A
N/A
20
14
12
8

Production
(Short Tons)
16,877
18,903
15,998
10,447
7,760
4,813
N/A = not available



Sources:  DOE 85a, DOE 85b, DOE 80

-------
                                                           EXHIBIT 2-17;


                                 OPERATING STATUS AND CAPACITY OF LICENSED CONVENTIONAL
to
oo



State
Colorado

New Mexico




Utah



Washington

Wyoming





TOTAL

URANIUM


Facility
Canon City
Uravan
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater
Ambrosia
Grants
White Mesa
Lisbon
Moab
Shootaring Canyon
Ford
Sherwood
Sweetwater
Gas Hills
Shirley Basin
Bear Creek
Gas Hills
Split Rock


MILLS AS OF NOVEMBER


Owner
Cotter Corp.
UMETCO/Union Carbide
Sohio/Kennecott
United Nuclear
Anaconda
Kerr-McGee
Homestake
UMETCO/Union Carbode
Rio Algom
Atlas
Plateau Resources
Dawn Mining
Western Nuclear
Minerals Exploration
Pathfinder
Pathfinder
Rock Mt. Energy
UMETCO/Union Carbide
Western Nuclear


1985(a)

Operating
Status(b)
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Active^
Activev '
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby
Standby,*
Active^'
Standby
Standby
Standby
3 Active
17 Standby


Capacity
(tons/day)(c)
1200
1300
1650
4000
6000
7000
3400
2000
750
1400
800
600
2000
3000
2500
1800
2000
1400
1700


       (a)
         Data obtained from conversations with agreement states, NRC representatives, and mill operators. Does not include mills

         licensed but not constructed.


         Active mills are currently processing ore and producing yellowcake. Standby mills are not currently processing but are

         capable of restarting.

       (c)
         Processing capacity in tons of ore per day.


       ^Current contract will allow operating for 12-18 months.


       ^e'Likely to go to standby status soon.


         Source:  PEI 85.

-------
 A wide variety  of companies  are represented within the uranium  industry.  In the
 industry's early years, holdings  were dominated by independent  mining and exploration
 companies.  Since then, mergers, acquisitions, and the entry of conglomerates  have
 considerably altered  industry  structure.   During  the  1970's  the  oil embargo  and
 optimistic forecasts of future  nuclear power  capacity  made  entry  into  the uranium
 market attractive to oil companies and utilities. Of the 17 companies that owned  mills
 in 1984, ten were subsidiaries of oil companies, utilities, or large chemical companies;
 one  was a subsidiary of a transportation company;  and six were mining corporations.
 For  the most part, uranium activities are a small part of the owners' business.  This
 influences the long-term outlook for the stability of the industry since large, diversified
 companies are  likely to have the financial resources  to weather the current downturn in
 the market if they  expect a return to profitability.

                             2.3.2  Employment Analysis

 Department of Energy estimates of employment in the uranium milling industry in  1984
 are listed  in Exhibit 2-18.  Additional detail at the State  level was  obtained through
 discussions with  staff of the departments of mining or natural resources in the  States
 with uranium mills.  This is provided in the following paragraphs.

 Historically, New  Mexico  and  Wyoming have  been the  nation's leading producers of
 uranium and have jointly been responsible for an estimated 70 to 75 percent of total
 uranium concentrate production.  Following the peak production period of 1981 and
 1982, and since the onset  of  the production decline in the latter part  of  1982,  it is
 estimated that approximately 7000 jobs have been lost in New Mexico as production fell
 from 253 million  tons in  1982 to 36 miUion in 1984 (NM 85).1

 Exhibit 2-19 contains a description of uranium milling activity in the State of Wyoming.
 It reveals that there were seven uranium mine-mill complexes  and one uranium mill in
 1980 collectively employing 2451 people. In 1981, there were seven mills and mine-mill
complexes  employing  1361  people.  In 1984, data  were  available for  five  mine-mill
Employment and output estimates provided by State sources may not agree with those
provided by the U.S. Department of Energy and presented elsewhere in this report, due
to differences in data collection procedures.
                                       29

-------
                               EXHIBIT 2-18;
            EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.S URANIUM MILLING INDUSTRY
                              BY STATE. 1984
            	State	        Person-Years Expended
            Colorado                              215
            Wyoming                              310
            Arizona, New Mexico,                   462
             Texas, Utah, Washington
                TOTAL                          987
Source: DOE 85b
                                 30

-------
                                             EXHIBIT 2-19;
          URANIUM MILLING  ACTIVITY IN THE STATE OF  WYOMING
Mane of
Operator
Bear Creek
Uranium Co.

Federal
American
Partners

Mame of Mine County and PedlOei
Location
Beer Creek Natrona IJurr.ee Uranium
Mine Mine and Mill
Complex
MlUng Fremont Uranium Mill
Plant - Engineering
and
Exploration
Mo. of Bmployeei Production (Tone)
1110 I'll 1IM 1110 1(11 1IM
158 til 110 IM.OOO «5,000 44I.4M


100 115 " 500 411,192



 Mineral*      Sweetwater
 EjEploretion    Uranium
 Corporation   Project
Bwertweler  Open Pit Uranium
           Mne end Mill
                                                                            l»5,5«5  1,016,141
PatMlnoer Uick McMlne Fremont
Mlnei end McMill
Corporation
Pathfinder Shirley BaMn Carbon
Wnei Mine
Corporation
Petro- Petronlee Carbon
troriei tromca
Company Une end Mill
weetern Mcmtoeh Fremont
Hucleer Pit
toe.
Woitem BpBt Rock Fremont
Nuclear Mill
Qetty OU Petro Carbon
Company tronlo Mill
Total:
'Milled'
and
Mined
and
Hilled*
(torn)
Totali
Hox>f
Employee.
engaged
In 'mining
andmTJnr
Open Pit Urerdum 411 107 Tl MeMiU McMill McHill-
Mlne and Mill 1H.416 I1»,5IO tit, 174
McMlne - yellow
(31,113 cake
Open Pit Uranium 156 403 141 1,086 446,348 15,116
Mine, Mill and yellow
Maintenance oake
Stop
Open Pit Uranium 915 - 44 1, Til, IIS — 175,101
Mne and Mill yelkjw
oake
Open Pit Uranium 11 — 111,706 — —
Mine and Mill
Open Pit Uranium 136 147 11 566,102 106,511 0
Mnei end Mill
Uranium Mil — 69 — — 465,565
9,171,950 9, 110, (47 1,1U,(57
1451 1161 454
Percentage Change 1MO-M
Total:
•Mllle   Wromlm State fcanector of Mlneei 1IM, INI aad 1M4
                                              31

-------
complexes  and one  mill, and  only four of  these  operations recorded  any output.
Employment was down to 454 workers.  Thus, from 1981 to 1984, the total number of
individuals employed  at mills  and  mine-mill complexes declined by 81  percent  and
production declined by approximately 6 percent (WY 80, 81, and 84).

In the State of Washington, before 1982 there were two mine-mill complexes:  Midnight
mines (owned and operated by Dawn  Mining Company) and the Sherwood Mine (owned by
Western  Nuclear, a subsidiary of  Phelps Dodge Corporation). In 1981, Dawn employed
50 workers, and in 1982  it employed 42.  In 1981, Sherwood employed 45 workers, while
in 1982 it employed 14 miners plus 98 maintenance workers.  Both mine-mill complexes
are currently inactive and unemployment (estimated at 40 percent from 1982 to 1983)
was estimated to be as high as 80 percent (WA 85).

In Colorado, there were 508 mineral  industry operations in 1980, 100 of which were
engaged  in the production of uranium. By 1985 however, there were only two mines or
mine/mill complexes: Centennial and Schwartzwalder.  In 1980, the uranium industry
employed approximately 1594 individuals (Nugent 80), whereas it is estimated that the
two operations now employ about 200 people (Co 85).

In Texas, there were until recently, three mills:  the Conquista Project (Conoco),  Ray
Point (Exxon)  and  the Panna Maria  complex (Chevron).   The Conquista complex,  it is
estimated, employed over 500 people during its peak period from 1979 to 1980, and the
Panna Maria complex about  250 people during its peak period from 1981 to 1983.  The
Conquista Project and  Ray  Point have  now been decommissioned.   The Panna Maria
complex  maintains a skeleton staff of seven to eight people (TX 85).

                         2.3.3 Community Impact Analysis

The impact of trends in uranium  milling on small communities dependent on uranium
milling facilities tends to vary depending on the location  of the mines; the importance
of uranium mining and milling to the state; and the nature of the workforce. Texas and
Washington are on opposite sides  of the  dependency spectrum, and therefore  serve as
interesting case studies.

In the state of Washington, the uranium facilities are located primarily in  the Spokane
Indian Reservation. Mining  soon  became  the  main economic  activity as the mining
companies were under contractual obligation to  draw 51 percent of  their labor force
                                       32

-------
from the Incfian community.  When the two Washington  mine-mill complexes, Midnight
Mines and Sherwood Mines, closed in  1983-1984, the unemployment rate rose to about
80 percent.  This is perhaps partly attributable  to  the absence of any  other  mining
activity on the reservation which  might have absorbed some of the displaced workers.
This high unemployment rate also  suggests limited mobilitv on the  part of miners and
workers. Thus, in the  case of Washington it would seem that the employment effects
were  concentrated,  and felt  largely by the  Indian community which served  as the
principal source of labor for uranium mining and milling within the state (WA 85).

In Texas,  in  contrast,  the  community impacts  of the  uranium industry  are less
significant.  Most uranium industry employees were originally  farmers and ranchers,
maintaining and upgrading their properties  during the lifetime of their mining careers.
Moreover, they were mostly a commuting workforce so  there was  no residual pool of
unemployed persons in the vicinity of the mines once the decline in employment took
place in the 1980's. There were no uranium mining communities as such in  the State of
Texas  which  were dependent  on  the mining and production  of  uranium  for their
subsistence.  Moreover,  many workers were absorbed by  the booming petroleum and
lignite industries (TX 85).

In the case of both  Colorado and Utah,  the  ability to absorb unemployed uranium
workers is limited.  In  Colorado this has been due  to the depressed state of the  mining
industry in general within the state (CO 85). In New Mexico, where uranium mining and
milling are considered an important economic activity, there were areas of concen-
trated impact - such as Gallup, the Laguna Pueblo area and  the Navajo  Indian
Reservation.  The wide scale  reduction in  employment  observed in recent years, the
reduction in sales and  sales tax revenues, the loss of severance payments, a significant
amount of out-migration to  Nevada and  several  other  states,  and a  concomitant
reduction in income tax revenue  have combined  to make  the impact significant and
state-wide as opposed to community-specific (NM 85).

                             2.3.4  Financial Analysis

Selected  financial data for the domestic uranium industrv for 1980 to 1984 are shown in
Exhibit 2-20.  The data  cover a subset of firms  (the same firms  for all years) that
represent over 80 percent of the assets in the industry in  each year.  The firms included
are those for which uranium operations could be separated  from other aspects of the
organization's  business, and for which an acceptable level of consistency in financial

                                     33

-------
                                                      EXHIBIT 2-20;
                  FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM INDUSTRY, 1980-1984 — (Continued)

                                                     (Million Dollars)
oa
                                           1980       1981        1982
Income Statement
  Operating Revenues	       999.3    1,067.5      888.9
  Operating Income (Loss)	         4.5       62.1      (43.5)
  Net Income (Loss)	       (11.0)      40.8      (15.9)
Source and Use of Funds Statement
  Net Income (Loss)	       (11.0)      40.8      (15.9)
  Depreciation, Depletion,
    and Amortization	       138.2      170.8      225.3
  Deferred Taxes	        38.3       22.7      (22.6)
  Debt and Equity	       275.0      296.4      352.8
  Other Sources	       263.3       98.1      118.6
    Total Sources	       703.6      628.8      658.2
Capital Expenditures (Property,
  Plant, and Equipment)	       464.1      297.3      122.2
  Debt Repayment	        28.4      167.9       93.1
  Other Uses  	       155.9      101.7      354.2
    Total Uses	       648.4      566.9      569.5
  Change in Working Capital	        55.4       61.9       88.7
Balance Sheet
  Current Assets (Less Inventory).  ...       249.2      220.9      253.2
  Inventory    	       255.5      331.0      381.4
  Net PP&E   	     2,065.0    2,293.7    2,106.1
  Other Noncurrent Assets	       350.4      263.4      431.8
    Total Assets	     2,920.1    3,109.0    3,172.5
  Current Liabilities	       246.0      221.8      193.4
  Deferred Liabilities	     1,378.1    1,542.2    1,441.4
    Total Liabilities	     1,624.1    1,764.0    1,634.8
  Equity	     1,296.0    1,345.0    1,537.7
    Total Liabilities and Equity	     2,920.1    3,109.0    3,172.5
                                                                                        1983
                                                                                         767.
                                                                                          73.
                                                                                          37.8
  152.5
    1.5
   21.4
  174.2
  387.4


   61.5
   53.4
  234.7
  349.6
   37.8
                                                                                             ,5
                                                                                             7
  261.
  292.
1,546.9
  553.8
2,654.9
  147.5
1,544.6
1,692.1
  962.8
2,654.9
           1984


            525.8
            (10.0)
           (205.5)
                                                                                          37.8    (205.5)
   97.4
  (65.6)
   16.5
  441.1
  283.9


   29.1
   72.5
  109.2
  210.8
   73.1


  393.2
  356.6
1,351.0
  351.7
2,452.5
  304.9
1,321.4
1,626.3
  826.2
2,452.5

-------
                                          EXHIBIT 2-20;

             FINANCIAL STATISTICS OF THE DOMESTIC URANIUM INDUSTRY, 1980-1984

                                   (Million Dollars) — (Continued)


                                            1980       1981       1982       1983       1984
Ratios (percent)
  Rates of Return
    Net Income to Total Asstes	        -0.4        1.3        -0.5        1.4      -8.4
    Net Income to Total Equity	        -0.8        3.0        -1.0        3.9     -24.9
    Net Income to
      Net Investment in Place	        -0.5        1.8        -0.8        2.4     -15.2
  Fund Flow Measures
    Additions to PP&E to
      Total Sources of Funds	        65.9       47.3        18.6       15.9      10.3
  Leverage Measures
    Deferred Liabilities to
      Total Equity	       106.3      114.7        93.7      160.4     159.9
    Deferred Liabilities to
      Total Assets	        47.2       49.6        45.4       58.2      53.9
  Liquidity Measures
    Current Ratio	         2.1        2.5         3.3        3.8       2.5
    Liquidity Ratio	         1.0        1.0         1.3        1.8       1.3
  Source: DOE 85a

-------
reporting practices was available for all years.  Financial data on the milling industry
alone are not available.

As shown in  the  exhibit,  net  income accruing to the uranium industry was positive  in
only two years, 1981 and 1983.  The returns on assets  (net income divided  by  total
assets) in these years were 1.3 and  1.4 percent respectively, and aggregate net earnings
totalled $78.6 million.  In 1980, 1982  and 1984, the  returns on assets were  -0.4, -0.5,
and  -8.4 percent, and aggregate net losses reached  $232.4  million.   The loss in 1984
alone was $205.5  million on revenues of $525.8 million. Thus, the aggregate loss for the
five years was $153.8  million.  Compared to the rest  of the economy, the uranium
industry's situation appears even worse: for the period 1980-1984, the annual growth  in
after-tax corporate profits for the total domestic economy averaged 19.3 percent.

The industry's financial picture in 1984 stemmed largely from the need for restructuring
of its asset base  in response to the  continuing decline in the market for uranium.  Many
uranium properties and facilities were written down in 1984 to reflect the present value
of the revenues from contracted future deliveries of  uranium.  During 1984,  an amount
well in excess of $200  million was charged against income in  the writedown process.
The adjustment will permit most to be more competitive in the future (DOE 85a).

Company-specific information on uranium production, revenues, profits, and plans  is
provided in the following paragraphs.

                              Kerr-McGee Corporation

Kerr-McGee  has  been a  major domestic uranium producer since  it  first entered the
industry in 1952.   In October of 1983, the company split its uranium operations into two
divisions,  Quivira Mining  Company and Sequoyah Fuels Corporation.  Quivira became
the  uranium  mining and milling  subsidiary, operating  two  mining  complexes  and
processing the ore at  the nation's  largest (7000 ton per day) mill, in  Grants,  New
Mexico.  Sequoyah Fuels  operates a facility in Oklahoma  that is one of only  two plants
in the U.S. that  converts tLOg into uranium hexafluoride  (UFfi) and also produces
uranium concentrate from solution mining in Wyoming.

In January 1985,  Kerr-McGee placed its  mines and mill on  standby.   The  uranium
operations, which have been for sale for some time, have been written down in value  in
                                        36

-------
Kerr-McGee's financial statements, by $42 milfion after taxes, to the present value of
existing contracts.  Contractual commitments will be met through inventory and mine-
water recovery  techniques (AR  84a,  AR 83a).   Statistics on Kerr-McGee's uranium
operations are provided in Exhibit 2-21.

                            Homestake Mining Company

Homestake Mining Company owns two conventional uranium mines and  a  3400 ton per
day mill in Grants, New Mexico.  During 1984,  production of uranium was reduced to
the  minimum  level at which satisfactory unit costs  could be  maintained.   Mine
production  was confined to one  mine operating on a five-day-week schedule for ten
months of the year.  Uranium concentrate was also recovered from solution mining and
ion-exchange.  In 1984, uranium  accounted for 18 percent of the  company's  revenues,
and a disproportionate 31 percent of operating earnings, for a return on operations of 34
percent. The high return for  the vear is attributed to existing contracts which provide
for sale prices  above current spot prices and production costs.  In 1982  and 1983, in
comparison, the returns on uranium operations  were  24  and 19 percent,  respectively.
Operating returns  for all Homestake operations  during 1982-1984 were 23,  26 and 20
percent, respectively.
During 1985, the company suspended its conventional mining and milEn^ operations and
expanded its uranium leaching facilities. Uranium earnings are expected to continue to
decline in the next two years with the expiration of existing sales contracts (AR 84b).
Financial information for Homestake's uranium operations is presented in Exhibit 2-22.

                                    Rio Algom

Rio  Algom  is a  Canadian corporation engaged in the mining of a wide variety of
materials, including copper, steel, and uranium.  In 1983, uranium operations accounted
for  38  percent  of corporate  revenue, but  most  (94  percent) was  from  Canadian
production.  In the United States, the  company owns two uranium mines and a 750 ton
per day mill in La Sal, Utah.

In 1983, the company  produced 167 tons of  uranium oxide from its Utah mines, and
delivered 150 tons under a new contract secured for the years 1983-1986. The mines
operated at approximately 50 percent of capacity in 1983, while the mill operated at
                                      37

-------
EXHIBIT 2-21(a):
KERR-MCGEE CORPORATION
URANIUM OPERATIONS:
FINANCIAL DATA, 1982-1984
1


(million $)
1984
Sales
Operating Income
Assets
Depreciation, Depletion
Capital Expenditures
$
($
$
$
$
90
67)
182
14
1
1983
$
($
$
$
$
115
6)
288
15
4
$
$
$
$
$
1982
153
20
313
16
7
                                  EXHIBIT 2-21(b);

                           KERR-MCGEE CORPORATION

                              URANIUM OPERATIONS;

            RESERVES, PRODUCTION, PRICES, AND DELIVERIES, 1980-19841

Reserves (demonstrated, 1000 tons)
Ore Milled (1000 tons)
Production (U3Og, 1000 pounds)
Average Market Price/lb of U3Og
UgOg Delivered (1000 pounds)
1984
98,236
531
1,890
$30. 282
1,228
1983
100,589
700
2,330
$ 27.29
2,708
1982
102,551
N/A
4,181
$ 28.12
3,942
1981
105,894
N/A
5,042
$ 28.12
5,354
1980
114,116
N/A
5,627
, $• 28.61
6,751
 Includes both data for both Quivira Mining Company and Sequoyah Fuels Corporation.
2
 Current year sales prices are not representative since they are primarily related to prior year
 fixed price contracts.


 N/A = not available


 Sources: AR 84a, AR 83a
                                   38

-------
                                EXHIBIT 2-22;
            HOMESTAKE MINING COMPANY URANIUM OPERATIONS
                                  1982-1984
Revenues (millions)
Operating Income (millions)
Sales of UgOg (million pounds)
Sales Price Per Pound of U3Og
Depreciation, Depletion, and
Amortization (millions)
Additions to Property, Plant, and
Equipment (millions)
Identifiable Assets (millions)
1984
$ 57.9
$ 19.6
1.130
$ 51.21
$ 4.4
$ .7
$ 66.9
1983
$ 58.6
$ 11.4
1.130
$ 49.76
$ 14.3
$ 0.0
$ 73.0
1982
$ 63.7
$ 15.6
N/A
$ 46.15
$ 20.0
$ 1.0
$ 80.8
Prices based on long-term contracts which expire in 1986 and 1987.
N/A = not available.
Source:  AR 84b
                                   39

-------
capacity due to a significant amount of toll milling (AR 83b).   The company closed one
mine in early 1985, and may soon place its mill on standby (PEI 85a).

Selected financial statistics on  Rio  Algom uranium  operations are presented in Exhibit
2-23.

                             Plateau Resources Limited

Plateau Resources, a wholly owned  subsidiary of Consumers Power  Co., was organized
in 1976 to acquire, explore, and develop  properties for the mining, milling, and sale of
uranium.   All  operations  were suspended in 1984  because of depressed demand and
assets were written down by  about  $46 million  after  taxes,  to  an  estimated net
realizable value of approximately $55 million.  There is no assurance that the amount
will ever be realized however.  The company's 800 ton per day mill at Ticaboo, Utah,
which was constructed in 1980 and 1981,  has never been active (AR 84c).

                                  Western Nuclear

Western Nuclear,  a subsidiary  of Phelps Dodge Corporation, owns  two mine  and mill
complexes, one in  Wyoming and  one in Washington.  The capacities of its mills are 1700
and 2000 tons per day, respectively. The  Wyoming mill has been on standby since the
early 1980's, and decommissioning is anticipated.   The  Washington complex operated
intermittently from 1981 through 1984.  In late 1984, Phelps Dodge wrote off its entire
"Energy" operation, of which Western Nuclear is a major part.  While  the company
believes that nuclear power will ultimately have an important role  in satisfying the
nation's energy needs, Phelps Dodge has suffered other financial losses  that  made  it
necessary  to dispose of  operations  that have  uncertain prospects for  near-term
profitability.  Contracts to deliver 400 tons of uranium  oxide in  1984 and  422 tons in
1985  were expected to  be fulfilled primarily with  purchases  from the spot  market
instead of  new production.   Exhibit 2-24  provides data on  Phelps Dodge's U3Og
production and  ore reserves, plus  financial  information on  Phelps Dodge's "Energy"
operations, which include a gas and oil subsidiary in addition to uranium operations (AR
83c, AR 84d).
"Toll  milling" is  the processing  of ore  from another company's  mines on a contract
basis.

                                        40

-------
                                EXHIBIT 2-23;
                RIO ALGOM URANIUM OPERATIONS, 1981-1983

Million $
Revenues
Operating Income
Capital Expenditures
Assets
Depreciation, Amortization
TT O
Tons U3U8
Total Production
Canadian Production
U.S. Production
1983

297.6
76.1
87.8
752.9
29.9


3,400
3,233
167
1982

281.7
60.3
13.7
427.8
28.1


3,550
NA
NA
1981

281.9
69.2
17.3
372.1
30.7


3,900
NA
NA
Source:  AR 83b
                                  41

-------
                                   EXHIBIT 2-24;
                 PHELPS DODGE ENERGY OPERATIONS, 198l-1984a
                                    1984b       1983         1982        1981
             Million $
    Revenues                       na            25.4          34.8       89.5
    Operating Income                na           (10.8)        (17.3)      10.3
    Capital Expenditures             na             1.6           5.3        9.8
    Assets                          na           156.5         154.2      168.8
    Depreciation, Amortization       na             5.3           3.4        7.7

         Physical Quantities
    U3Og Production (Tons)          na           303           250         631

    Ore Reserves (1000 Tons)         na          15,700        15,400      15,400

 na = not available
aPhelps-Dodge uranium operations are conducted through its subsidiary Western Nuclear.
 Uranium operations are included in the "Energy" business segment in the annual reports.
 Also in this segment is a gas and oil exploration subsidiary, but the annual report states
 that the energy segment consists principally of uranium operations.
 The company wrote off its entire investment in Energy operations in the fourth quarter
 of 1984.
 Sources:  AR 83c,  AR 84d.
                                    42

-------
                              Rocky Mountain Enertry

Rocky Mountain Energy, a subsidiary of Union Pacific  Corporation, owns a  mine and
mill complex in Powder River Basin, Wyoming.  In  1984, the company shipped 271 tons
of uranium oxide to  Southern  California  Edison  and  San  Diego  Gas  and  Electric.
Because  Union Pacific expects new opportunities for producers of  U,Og, uranium
exploration operations have continued, primarily in an area of northern Arizona where
high grade  deposits are known to exist (AR 84e). The 2000 ton per day mill was inactive
in 1985, however, and decommissioning is anticipated (PEI 85a).

Financial statistics for Union Pacific's mining operations, which include large coal and
soda ash activities in addition to uranium, are provided in Exhibit 2-25a.  Information on
reserves and production is presented in Exhibit 2-25b.

                                 Other Producers

The above companies  were the  only  producers  publishing detailed  information  on
uranium  operations.  Limited information pertaining to  other mill operators obtained,
either through annual reports or industry sources, follows:

      •      The Cotter Corporation, a subsidiary of Commonwealth Edison Co., owns
             three underground mines  and  a 1200 ton per  day  mill  at Canon City,
             Colorado.  The mill and  two  of the  mines have  been on standby since
             January 1985. As of December 31, 1984, Commonwealth  Edison reported
             assets  of $212,135,000 in  uranium  related  property, equipment,  and
             activities (AR 84f).

      •      Union Carbide owns several uranium mines  and three uranium mills in
             Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah.  Maximum rated capacities of the mills are
             1300, 1400,  and 2000 tons per day.   The company reported in its most
             recent  annual report that its  uranium  mines and mills  operated below
             capacity in 1984, although at higher rates than in 1983 (AR 84g).  As of
             September 1985, all three  mills were on standby, but the largest mill, at
             White Mesa, Utah, was reopened in October to meet a contract (PEI 85a).

      •      Kennecott, a subsidiary of Standard Oil  of Ohio, owns a 1650 ton per day
             mill at Cebolleta, New Mexico.  The  mill has been inactive since the early
             1980's (DOE 85a).
                                      43

-------
                               EXHIBIT 2-25(a):
                     UNION PACIFIC MINING OPERATIONS;
                     FINANCIAL INFORMATION, 1981-1984
Million $
Revenues
Operating Income
Capital Expenditures
Assets
Depreciation, Amortization
1984
168.0
63.0
1.0
288.0
5.0
1983
189.0
67.0
18.0
303.0
7.0
1982
165.4
48.2
11.0
322.8
8.6
1981
179.1
48.6
12.0
326.6
3.0
                               EXHIBIT 2-25(b);
                               UNION PACIFIC
                    URANIUM RESERVES AND PRODUCTION
                             (1000 pounds of UO)

Reserves
Undeveloped
Interest in joint venture
Leased Properties
Production

19841

1,553
2,897
648
233
1983

2,846
4,524
648
287
1982

2,846
5,698
943
395
1981

2,846
6,019
943
525
1980

2,852
5,506
626
360
1984 reserves were  adjusted  downward  by 34  percent  to reflect  future market
prospects.
Sources:  AR 84e, AR 83d
                                 44

-------
United  Nuclear  Corporation, a  subsidiary of UNC  Resources,  Inc.,  has
historically been a major producer of uranium.  However, since 1983 all
the  company's mines  have been  on standby due  to depressed market
conditions, as has its 4000  ton per day mill at Gallup, New Mexico.  The
company has  been  filling  its  contract  commitments  with uranium pur-
chased from outside sources.  Plans for 1985 call for complete elimination
of uranium operations (AR 84h).

Anaconda, a subsidiary of Atlantic Richfield Co., owns a 6000 ton per day
uranium mill at Grants, New Mexico.  The mill has been on standby since
1982 (DOE 85a).

Chevron Chemical Company, a subsidiary of Chevron Corporation, owns a
2600 ton per day mill at Hobson,  Texas.  The mill was active thru  1984 but
in 1985 began only grinding alkaline rock to neutralize its tailings pool
(PEI 85a).  The company expects that, although prices are now depressed,
uranium will  be profitable in the future.  Plans  are underway to test
commercial production of uranium at Mt. Taylor, New Mexico in 1985 (AR
84i).

Atlas Corporation owns four  underground uranium mines and a  1400 ton
per day mill located in  Moab, Utah.  The mill operated at least part of the
year through  1984, but  as of June 1985 was inactive (DOE 85a, JFA 85b).

Dawn Mining is a joint operation of Newmont Mining Corporation of New
York and  Midnight  Mining  Company  of Spokane,  Washington.   The
company owns a 600 ton per day miD near Ford, Washington.  The mill has
been inactive since 1982 (DOE 85a, JFA  85b).

Pathfinder  Mines  owns five  uranium  mines  and  two uranium  mills in
Wyoming.   Both mills  operated through 1984.  As of October 1985, the
2500 ton per day mill  at Gas Hills was  on standby, but the 1800 ton per
day facility at Shirley Basin was active (PEI 85a, JFA 85b).

Minerals Exploration, a subsidiary of Union Oil, owns a 3000 ton per day
mill near Red Desert, Wyoming.  The mill has been on standby since 1983
(DOE 85a, JFA 85b).
                          45

-------
                                 REFERENCES

AR 84a-i    Annual Reports for 1984 for Kerr-McGee Corporation, Homestake Mining
            Company,  Consumers  Power  Co.,  Phelps  Dodge  Corporation,  Union
            Pacific  Corporation,  Commonwealth  Edison  Co., Union  Carbide,  UNC
            Resources, Inc., and Chevron Corporation.

AR 83a-c    Annual Reports for 1983 for Kerr-McGee Corporation, Rio Algom Corpo-
            ration, Phelps Dodge Corporation, and Union Pacific Corporation.

CO 85       Personal communication,  Colorado  Department  of  Natural Resources,
            Division of Mines, December 1985.

CW 84      "For Uranium  Producers, Far-Off Silver Linings," Chemical Week,  April
            11, 1984.

DOE 80     Department of Energy, Statistical Data of the Uranium Industry.  GJO-
            100 (80), 1980.

DOE 82     Department of  Energy,  Survey of  United States  Uranium  Marketing
            Activity.  DOE/NE-001311, July 1982.

DOE 83     Department of Energy, World Uranium Supply and Demand;  Impact of
            Federal Policies.  DOE/EIA-0387 (83), March 1983.

DOE 84a    Department of  Energy,  Survey of  United States  Uranium  Marketing
            Activity 1983. DOE/EIA-0403 (83), August  1984.

DOE 84b    Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry;
            1983 Viability  Assessment.  Pre-publication release, December 1984.

DOE 84c    Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear  Power  1984; Prospects for
            the United States and the World. DOE/EIA-0438 (84), November 1984.

DOE 85a    Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry;
            1984 Viability  Assessment.  DOE/EIS-0477,  September 1985.

                                      46

-------
                           REFERENCES — (continued)
DOE 85b     Department  of  Energy,  Uranium  Industry  Annual  1984.
             0478(84), October 1985.
                                                          DOE/EIA-
DOE 85c     Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear Power;  Prospects for the
             United States and the World.  DOE/EIA-0438 (85), September 1985.

JFA 85a     Jack Faucett  Associates,  Economic  Profile  of  the  Uranium  Mining
             Industry.  Prepared  for U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency,  January
             1985.

JFA 85b     Jack Faucett Associates, communications with uranium mill operators and
             parent companies, June-October 1985.

NM 85       Personal  communication,  Energy  and  Minerals  Department,  Mine
             Inspection Bureau, State of New Mexico, December  1985.

Nugent  80    Nugent,  J.W., "A Summary of  Mineral Industry Activities in Colorado,
             1980:   Part E,  Metal-Nonmental."   Colorado  Department  of  natural
             Resources, Division of Mines.

OECD 83     Organization  for  Economic Cooperation  and  Development, Uranium;
             Resources, Production, and Demand.  Paris, December 1983.

PEI 85a      PEI Associates, oral communication, August-October 1985.

PNL 84       Battelle-Pacific Northwest Laboratories, U.S. Uranium  Mining Industry;
             Background  Information on  Economics and Emissions, PNL-5035, March
             1984.
TX 85
Personal communication,  Texas  Railroad  Commission, State of Texas,
December 1985.
WY 80,81,   Wyoming State Inspector of Mines, 1980, 1981, and 1984 annual reports.
  and 84
WA 85      Personal communication,  Department of Natural Resources,  Division of
            Geology and Earth Resources, State of Washington, December 1985.
Zi 79
Zimmerman,   Charles   F.,  Uranium   Resources  on  Federal  Lands.
Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1979.
                          47

-------
                                   CHAPTER 3

                     PROFILE OF TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
                          AT LICENSED URANIUM MILLS

This chapter provides a  profile of the status of existing tailings impoundments.  The list
includes only those impoundments at existing licensed uranium mills.  Impoundments at
mills which are currently decommissioned are not included.  The information presented
in this  chapter was developed as  part  of the  Background  Information Document
prepared for  this regulation by PEI Associates, Inc.  Data was collected by contacting
mill owners,  through site visits, and aerial photographs.  Information is  provided on
forty-three existing  impoundments of which thirty-eight are  actual tailings impound-
ments and five represent evaporation ponds.

Exhibit  3-1 provides summary  information  on  the  characteristics and areas of  the
existing impoundments.   The first column of the exhibit provides information on  the
type of pile.  A type  one impoundment is one enclosed by dams  and dikes (embankments)
constructed with sand  tailings.   A  type  two impoundment is one  constructed  using
earthen embankments.  Type three impoundments are those constructed below grade.
Most existing tailings piles are of type two.  The use of sand tailings for embankments
(type one)  has been  discouraged for some time and is  no longer permitted.  Only five
below-grade piles (at three sites) have been constructed as of this date.

The  second column of Exhibit 3-1  provides the  status of existing impoundments.  Piles
of status "C" are those that are at capacity.  Status "S" piles are on standby and status
"A" piles are currently active.

The  areas of the existing  impoundments are also given in Exhibit 3-1.  Areas are  given
in total and for ponded,  wet and dry areas.  The areas are important because only dry
areas are assumed to have substantial emissions of radon-222.  The final column of
Exhibit 3-1 provides  the average radium-226 content of  the tailings.  These data are
also  used in the calculation of radon-222 emissions.

Exhibit  3-2 provides the emissions of radon-222  in  kCi/year given  current water
conditions.  Current  emissions are calculated using a flux factor of 1 pCi radon-222 per
  2
m per second for 1 pCi radium-226 per gram concentration for dry tailings areas,  and a
                                        48

-------
                         EXHIBIT 3-1
              SUMMARY OF URANIUM MILL TAILINGS PILES
Site/ Pile
a/
Type of
Pile
b/
Status
Sla (acres)
Total I Ponded 1 Wet 1 Dry
Average
Ra-226
(oCI/o)
Colorado
Cotter Oorp.
Primary
Secondary
Umetoo
P1te1&2
Pile 3
Sludge pile
Evap. pond

2
2

1
1
1
1

S
C

c
C
c
c

84
31

66
32
20
17

77
1

0
0
0
0

3
1

4
3
1
2

A
30

62
29
19
15

780
780

480
480
480
480
Mew Mexico
Sohlo
     l-Bar
United Nuclear
     Churchrock
Anaoondo
     Bluewater 1
     Bluewater 2
     Bluewater 3
     Evap. ponds
Kerr-McQee
     Qulvlra 1
     Quwlra 2a
     Qulvlre 2b
     QuMre 2c
     Evap. ponds
Horn estate
     Horoestake 1
     Homestake 2

Texas	
Chevron
     Panna Maria

Utah
1

2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
S
S
S
C
C
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
C
128
148
239
47
24
162
269
105
28
30
372
205
44
28
7
0
0
0
97
14
10
0
0
268
63
4
55
76
0
0
0
17
64
35
3
4
10
33
0
45
65
239
47
24
48
191
60
25
26
95
109
36
500
290
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
385
385
124
68
20
36
196
Umetco
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa

3
3
3

S
S
S

48
61
53

7
10
39

7
6
0

34
45
14

350
350
350
                             49

-------
                   EXHIBIT 3-1 (Cont.)
          SUMMARY OF URANIUM Mill I/MUtteS PIUS
Site/ Pile
a/
Type of
Pile
b/
Status
Size (acres)
Total 1 Ponded 1 Wet 1 Dry
Average
Re-226
(DC1/Q)
RtoAlgom
Rlol
Rio 2
Atlas
Moat)
Plateau Res
Shooter Ing
Washington
Dawn Mining
Ford 1,2 ,3
Ford 4
Western Nuclear
Sherwood
Evap. pond
Wyoming
Pathfinder
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Western Nuclear
Split Rxlc
Umetoo
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leech pad
Evap ponds
Rocky Mountain Energy
Bear Creek
Pathfinder
Shirley Basin
Minerals Exp.
Sweetwater

2
2

1

2


2
3

2
2


2
2
2
2

2

2
3
2
2

2

2

2

A
A

S

S


C
S

S
S


S
C
S
S

S

C
S
S
S

S

A

S

44
32

147

7


95
28

94
16


124
54
22
89

156

151
25
22
20

121

261

37

4
12

54

2


0
17

18
16


2
2
19
73

94

0
2
0
20

45

179

30

2
5

4

1


0
0

7
0


3
12
2
4

19

0
9
0
0

23

22

0

38
15

90

1 1


95
11

70
0


119
40
2
11

43

151
14
22
0

53

60

7

560
560

540

280


850
850

200
200


420
420
420
420

430

310
310
310
310

420

540

280
TOTALS
                            3882   1282    457    2140
of impoundment: 1 « 
-------
                              EXHIBIT 3-2;
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
                      UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS

State
Colorado





New Mexico












Texas
Utah






Washington



Wyoming











U.S. TOTAL
Company
Name
Cotter Corp

Umetco



Sohio
United Nuclear
Anaconda



Kerr-McGee




Homestake

Chevron
Umetco


Rio Algom

Atlas
Plateau Res.
Dawn Mining

Western Nuclear

Pathfinder



Western Nuclear
Umetco



Rock Mt. Energy
Pathfinder
Minerals Exp.

Pile
Name
Primary
Secondary
Pile 1&2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Quivira 1
Quivira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Panna Maria
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Rio 1
Rio 2
Moab
Shootaring
Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Split Rock
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Bear Creek
Shirley Basin
Sweetwater


kCi/y
0.4
3.0
3.8
1.8
1.2
0.9
2.9
2.4
18.9
3.7
1.9
3.8
15.1
4.7
2.0
2.1
7.5
5.4
1.8
0.9
1.5
2.0
0.6
2.7
1.1
6.2
0.0
10.3
0.0
1.8
0.0
6.4
2.1
0.1
0.6
2.4
6.0
0.6
0.9
0.0
2.8
4.1
0.2
137
                                   51

-------
flux of zero for ponded and wet areas.  Emissions at existing impoundments range from
zero to 18.9 kCi/year.

Exhibit  3-3 summarizes the  estimated fatal cancers which will result  from existing
tailings  impoundments under current water-cover  conditions.   The estimated  fatal
cancers are calculated using emissions estimates discussed above and the EPA-AIRDOS
computer  code  which uses  a  dispersion model and  local  site-specific  population
                               _3
estimates.   A factor of 1.2 x 10   fatal cancers per kCi released is used to generate
national health effects estimates.  This estimate was derived from  Table 3-1 of EPA
document  number  520/1-83-008-1.  Estimated committed total cancers  from existing
tailings impoundments range from zero to  0.4 fatalities per year.
                                   52

-------
                             EXHIBIT 3-3;
SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL FATAL CANCERS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS
IMPOUNDMENTS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS
State
Colorado





New Mexico












Texas
Utah






Washington



Wyoming











U.S. TOTAL
Company Pile
Name Name
Cotter Corp Primary
Secondary
Umetco Pile 1&2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
Sohio L-Bar
United Nuclear Churchrock
Anaconda Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Kerr-McGee Quivira 1
Quivira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Chevron Panna Maria
Umetco White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Rio Algom Rio 1
Rio 2
Atlas Moab
Plateau Res. Shootaring
Dawn Mining Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Western Nuclear Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Pathfinder Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Western Nuclear Split Rock
Umetco E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Rock Mt. Energy Bear Creek
Pathfinder Shirley Basin
Minerals Exp. Sweetwater

Committed
Cancers
Per Year
.01
.09
.07
.03
.02
.02
.08
.05
.4
.09
.04
.02
.3
.08
.04
.04
.1
.1
.05
.04
.02
.03
.008
.04
.02
.1
.0
.2
.0
.03
.0
.08
.03
.001
.007
.03
.07
.007
.01
.0
.04
.05
.002
2.45
                                 53

-------
                                    CHAPTER 4

                 FUTURE URANIUM MILLING INDUSTRY ACTIVITY

The initial chapters of this report have described how the uranium milling industry has
developed over  the past  two decades, and  where it stands  today.   The presentation
chronicles the large swings in production levels and capital investment and discusses the
volatile nature  of the industry.   In order to  measure  the potential  environmental
damage that would be caused  by this industry in  the  absence of regulation and to
estimate the added cost of new regulations affecting this industry, it is necessary to
develop a profile of how the industry  will develop in the future.

Any projection of future  production levels and work practices for the uranium  milling
industry are highly uncertain  due  to  the  political nature of  the  product,  defense
implications  of domestic uranium production, public sensitivity  to  nuclear related
activities, abundant low-cost foreign supplies  of uranium and the general difficulty of
developing forecasts for  a long enough term to  capture the  full dynamics of this
industry as  well as the related mill  waste disposal  process.  Despite these and other
uncertainties, the  future profile of this industry  must be constructed in  order  to
understand the potential impacts of various regulatory alternatives.

In this chapter a baseline  or reference case for the future of  this industry is developed.
In order to establish a long enough time frame  to capture mill and tailings impoundment
life cycles,  the reference case  includes all  final cover costs and life cycle emissions
from  existing impoundments and from  those future  impoundments that begin operation
over the next 100 years.  Assumptions are developed on the future activity of existing
mills, the design and operating characteristics of newly constructed mills, the expected
life cycle of all mills  and tailings impoundments, the emissions  and fatal lung cancers
from  existing and future mill sites, and the cost of achieving  final stabilization of these
impoundments.

The following sections present the elements  of this baseline.  In the subsequent analysis
of alternative regulatory  activities (Chapter 6), each of the key assumptions made in
order to develop this baseline are tested to determine their importance  in the analysis
of regulatory alternatives.
                                         54

-------
             4.1  PROJECTIONS OF DOMESTIC URANIUM PRODUCTION

In  this section,  two  sets  of projections  are  developed of  total domestic  uranium
production and of domestic production from conventional sources for use in subsequent
analyses.   The projections are developed for the 101-year time period  1985-2085 and
consist of two components:   near-term  projections, through the year 2000; and long-
term scenarios,  covering  2001-2085.   The long-term  components  are  referred to as
"scenarios" to emphasize the relatively conjectural nature of any set of projections for
such an extended timeframe.  These scenarios presume that, during  the next 100 years,
there  is  no technological breakthrough  which  permits either  a  cessation  in  the
construction of new  uranium-fueled  nuclear power plants or  a vast reduction in the
uranium requirements for  nuclear power (as would result from the development  of a
breeder reactor).

The two sets of projections consist of one set of moderately low projections and one set
of moderately high projections.  For the purposes of subsequent  analyses,  these two sets
will be referred  to as the  "reference" case and the "alternate" case, respectively,
though these  names  are  not  intended  to imply any  difference  in  the  perceived
reasonableness of the two sets of projections.

                            4.1.1 Near-Term Projections

Total domestic production  of  U^Og and domestic production from conventional uranium
sources for 1980-1984 are  shown in tabular form  in Exhibit 4-1 along with reference-
case and alternate-case projections of these two categories of production for the period
1985-2000.  The  projections of  total domestic production during 1990-2000 are taken
from recently published DOE low-demand and middle-demand projections for domestic
production under free  market  conditions  (DOE  85c, pp. 147-148).  Projected 1985
production shown in the exhibit has been adjusted  from the DOE projections, developed
in early 1985,  to reflect  the latest available information on mill operations.   This
Only two mills (Rio Algom and Pathfinder/Shirley Basin) have operated the entire year.
Three mills (Chevron, Cotter and Petrotomics) were operating at the beginning of 1985,
but closed during the first half of the year, while one mill (UMETCO/White Mesa)
reopened in October.
                                          55

-------
                 EXHIBIT 4-1;
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF
                                         , 1980-2000
                       (Short Tons)
             Reference Case
            Total  Conventional
                               Alternate Case
                              Total  Conventional
19&0
1981
1982
1983
198ft
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
21,852
19.237
13,ftlft
10,579
7.ftftl
ft. 350
ft. 350
ft. 300
ft. 300
ft. 350
ft. 350
ft. 350
4.6OO
ft. 950
5.250
5.ft50
5.750
6,050
6,300
6,ft50
6,550
18,600
15,100
10,119
7.ft7ft
ft. 618
1.800
1,800
1.850
1.850
1.900
1.900
1,900
2.10O
2.450
2.650
2.800
3.000
3.200
S.ftOO
3.500
3.600
21.852
19.237
IS.ftlft
10,579
7.ftftl
ft. 350
ft,ft50
ft. 550
ft. 750
ft. 950
5.150
5.300
5.350
5.050
5.100
5.750
6,650
7.550
8.150
8. ft50
8. 600
18.600
15.100
10.119
7,ft7ft
ft. 618
1.8OO
1.900
2.000
2,200
2.ftOO
2, 600
2.700
2.750
2,550
2.600
3.100
3.800
ft, 500
ft. 950
5.150
5.250
Sources: 19&0-198ft  and total production in  1990-200O:
                  DOE  85c.  pp.  lft7-lftS;
         1985-1989:  see text.
                        56

-------
information indicates that mill output in 1985 is likely to be only about 1800 short tons
(down  from  4618 tons  in  1984).   To  be consistent with  this sharp  reduction  in
conventional production, we estimate total domestic production in 1985 to be 4350 tons
(800 tons below  the  DOE figure developed earlier  this year).   Our reference-case
projections for 1986-1989 were obtained by assuming a slight  dip in production to 4300
tons (in 1987 and 1988) followed  by a return to  4350  tons, which is DOE's low-demand
projection  for  1990.   Our  alternate-case projections  for 1986-1989 were obtained by
assuming a gradual increase from the 1985 level to the 1990 value (5150 tons) obtained
from DOE's middle-demand projections.

Even before  our downward adjustments for the  1985-1989 period, DOE's projections of
domestic  uranium  production were  30  to  50 percent  lower  than  their  previous
projections (DOE 84b, pp. 157-158).  These substantial reductions  in projected domestic
production are due both to a reduction in projected domestic U,0g requirements and to
an  increase in  the portion  of these requirements expected to be  met through imports.
The reduction in domestic requirements is due  to  eight reactor  cancellations in 1984
and early 1985, an assumed  gradual improvement in  the enrichment tails assay (from
0.26 percent in 1985 to 0.20  percent in 2000), and an assumed gradual increase  in fuel
burnup levels (to 30 percent above 1983 levels).  As a result of imports and  drawdowns
from currently high  inventory levels, domestic production  is projected to provide less
than 40 percent of annual U,Og requirements throughout the 1985-2000 period and less
than 30 percent during much of this period.

Annual  domestic U3Og production peaked at 21,852  tons (after  milling)  in 1980 and
then declined by 66 percent, to 7441 tons in 1984. This decline is projected to continue,
to 4350 tons in 1985 and, in our reference case,  to 4300 tons in 1987 and 1988.  Annual
domestic  U3Og production from  conventional mining soures (i.e., from milling of ore
obtained from  underground  or open-pit  mining)  has fallen  even  more  steeply than
overall production: by 75 percent, from about 18,600 tons in 1980 to 4618  tons in 1984.
As  a result,  the percentage  of U,Og obtained from conventional sources has declined
from 85 percent in 1980 to 62 percent in 1984.

The reason for  the relatively steeper decline in production from conventional sources is
that nonconventional U3Og producers tend to have lower marginal costs of production
All U3Og production data presented in this chapter is after milling and excludes U3Og
which is not recovered from the ores in milling.  In recent years, the milling recovery
rate has been between 95 and 97 percent.
57
                                       57

-------
than conventional producers, and so production from nonconventional sources tends to
be less affected by  the recent decline in uranium prices. Indeed, production from the
largest category of  nonconventional sources, byproduct production, is virtually indepen-
dent of uranium prices (and has actually risen from about 1300 tons in  1981  to about
1650 tons in 1984).  The primary source of byproduct UgOg is wet-process production of
phosphoric acid; other sources are copper waste dumps (a source which can be affected
by uranium prices) and beryllium ores. The second significant nonconventional source is
in situ leaching, which yielded about 2100 tons of U3Og in 1981 and  about 1000  tons in
1984.  Other less important sources  include mine water  and heap leaching; 255  tons of
U0O0 were obtained from these sources in 1984.
  o o

The  projections of domestic tLOg  production from conventional sources shown in
Exhibit 4-1 were derived by JFA from the projections of total production by assuming
that conventional sources would continue to be more affected by  changes in the  market
than unconventional sources.  Accordingly,  conventional  production  is projected  to
decline from 4618 tons in 1984 (62 percent of total  production) to 1800 tons in 1985 (41
percent of total production) before beginning to increase  gradually in both total volume
and percentage of production.

The  low-demand and middle-demand  DOE projections of domestic U3Og  production
through the  year 2000 are the only recently published projections  of domestic uranium
production.    These projections are based on a unit-by-unit review of  nuclear power
plants that are now  operating or under construction.  Under DOE's  middle-demand case,
nuclear generating capacity is expected to increase from 71 GWe  in 1984 to 117 GWe in
1993, and then to decline slightly to  116 GWe in the year 2000. Under the low-demand
case, DOE estimates that  about 10 GWe  of new capacity  currently on order  will be
canceled, resulting in a peak capacity of 107.5  GWe  in 1992 followed  by a slight decline
to 106.4 GWe in the year 2000.  Both sets of projections assume no reactors which have
not already  been ordered will come on-line by  the  year 2000,  and the low-demand
uranium production  projections further assume no new orders through 2010.
Short-term and long-term  projections of United States uranium  production capability
have also been published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop-
ment in 1983 (OECD 83, pp. 316 and 318). These projections show production capability
rising from 10,300 metric  tonnes in 1984 to 14,000-18,700 tonnes in 1995 and  9400-
20,000 tonnes in  2005.  Presuming that production during  the  short-term  would  be
limited by  capability and not  by  demand (as actually appears to be  the case), OECD
projects  that resource depletion will  result in a  substantial  decline  in production
capability after 2005, falling to 2500-3700 tonnes in 2025.
                                       58

-------
The two sets of projections of nuclear generating capacity underlying  DOE'S uranium
production are  shown  graphically  in  Exhibit  4-2,  along  with  three sets  of  DOE
projections of  total generating capacity  through  1995 (which is as far  as currently
available DOE projections of total generating capacity go).  DOE also has developed a
high set of projections of nuclear generating capacity (but not of uranium production);
the high projections differ only slightly from the middle projections and are not shown
in the exhibit.  The three sets  of total generating capacity projections shown in Exhibit
4-2 represent  three  of the  five  sets  of such projections developed by  DOE; the
remaining projections,  which  presume either higher or lower real increases in  fuel
prices in the post-1990 period,  have been omitted from the exhibit  to avoid clutter. All
DOE projections of total generating capacity incorporate the middle-case projections of
nuclear generating capacity.

The Exhibit  4-1 historic data and reference-case projections for total domestic uranium
production and domestic production from conventional sources are shown graphically in
Exhibit 4-3.    The latter  exhibit  also shows historic data  and  projections  of  total
enrichment feed deliveries,  net change in U,Og inventories,  and net imports. With the
exception of 1985-1989 net imports,  these last  three series are taken from DOE's low-
demand projections (DOE 85c,  pp. 148, 150 and  152);  the level of net imports shown in
the  exhibit  for  1985-1989  are  slightly higher than  DOE's low-demand  projections
because of our downward adjustment of total domestic production.

Exhibit 4-4  shows plots of  corresponding values for  our alternate-case projections of
domestic uranium production and for projections of  total enrichment feed  deliveries,
net change in U,Og inventories, and net imports obtained from DOE's middle-demand
projections of these quantities (DOE  85c, pp. 147, 149 and 151) in the same fashion as
the plots in  Exhibit  4-3.   The middle-demand projections of  total enrichment  feed
deliveries for 1985-1994 were obtained by DOE directly from utility estimates of feed
deliveries.  DOE also developed their own projections of enrichment feed deliveries for
1985-2000, but used  these  projections only  for developing production estimates for
1995-2000.  The DOE projections for 1985-1994 show less year-to-year fluctuation and
are generally somewhat lower  than the utility estimates (which are the ones shown in
Exhibit 4-4).
                                      59

-------
                      EXHIBIT 4-2;

    PROJECTED ELECTRICITY-GENERATION CAPACITY
 GWe
 80(h
 700
 600-
 500 -
 400- •
 300- •
 200- •
 100--
                 Electric Utility Capacity —
                   Low, Medium and High Economic Growth Cases
                 Nuclear Power Generation Capacity
                   — Low and Medium Cases
        1985           199019952000

Sources: DOE 85a, pp. 215, 235 and 255; and DOE 85c, pp. 28-29.

                          60

-------
                                     EXHIBIT 4-3;
                           SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY;
       1980-1984 AND REFERENCE CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE YEAR 2000
 r\
Oc
t
00
II
Wr-
                                     Total Demand
                                     (Utility Enrichment Feed Deliveries)
                                                             Total  Supply
Net
Inventory
Reduction
                                      Net Imports
                                                      Total Domestic
                                                      Production
                              Nonconventional Production
                             Conventional
                Production
        1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
                                       Year
   Sources: Exhibit 3.1 and DOE 85c, pp. 148, 150 and 152.
                                   61

-------
                                  EXHIBIT 4-4;

                         SOURCES OF URANIUM SUPPLY;

    1980-1984 AND ALTERNATIVE-CASE PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE YEAR 2000
 r\
B I
CD
0[
i-o
00
II
26-


24-


22-


20


18


16


H


12


10


 8
       6-
       4-
       2-
                                      Total Demand
                          (Utility Enrichment Feed Deliveries)
                                             Net
                                          Inventory
                                          Reduction
                                                       Total Supply
                                      Net Imports
                                                    Total Domestic
                                                    Production
                            Nonconventional Production
                            Conventional Production

                                       1
                 I   I   I
                              III!
                                                 1    I   I
                                                              I   1   I
                         1985
                                   1990
1995
                                     Year
2000
  Sources: Exhibit 3.1 and DOE 85c, pp. 147, 149 and 151.
                                      62

-------
The  increase  in  enrichment feed  deliveries  shown in Exhibit 4-4 for the 1997-2000
period reflect DOE's middle-demand case assumption  that nuclear generating  capacity
will  begin  to  increase  significantly in  2001.   Although this  assumption may not be
appropriate, it does not appear to  have a  significant effect on  DOE's projections of
domestic  UgOg production during  this time  period,  and  so  DOE's projections  were
accepted for this time period without modification.

                             4.1.2  Long-Term Scenarios

In this section,  long-term  scenarios of total domestic production of  tLOg and of
domestic production  from conventional  uranium sources  are presented and discussed.
The  discussion includes a comparison of total domestic uranium  production under the
two scenarios  during 1985-2085 to estimated domestic  resources and a discussion of the
relationship of projected domestic uranium production in 2085 to the  implications for
electricity generated in that year from this source and from other sources.

                                   The Scenarios

Reference-case and alternate-case scenarios of total domestic production of tLOg and
of domestic production  from conventional uranium sources  for 2000-2085 are shown in
tabular form  in Exhibit 4-5.  The  two scenarios of total production were obtained by
assuming annual growth rates of 1.4 percent and  2.8 percent, respectively, during the
first twenty years of this period and then a gradual reduction of four percent  per year
in the growth  rates  for the remainder of the  period.  It can be seen from  the exhibit
that, by 2085, annual uranium production under both scenarios will have nearly leveled
off.  The projected production levels of 11,961 and 28,499 tons in 2085 under  the two
scenarios  may be compared to  actual  production of  21,900 tons in  1980, when the
historic peak in production was set.

The annual growth rates of 1.4 and  2.8 percent in total domestic uranium prduction used
during 2000-2020 are identical to the average annual growth rates obtained during this
period in DOE's 1984 low-case and  middle-case projections of installed nuclear capacity
(DOE 84a,  p.  19) and lower than the corresponding 1.5 and 3.9 percent growth rates
                                      63

-------
             EXHIBIT 4-5;
      POST-2000 PROJECTIONS OF
ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U,00
                                 o  o
             (Short Tons)
   Reference Case
  Total Conventional
 Alternate Case
Total Conventional
2000
2005
2010
2O15
2O20
2O25
2O30
2035
2O40
2O45
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2O80
2085
6.550
7.022
7.527
8.069
8.650
9.223
9.720
10, ma
10.505
10.808
11,062
11,274
11.450
11.595
11.715
11.813
11.894
11.961
3.600
3.954
4,333
4.739
5.175
5.605
6.052
6.434
6.758
7.031
7,260
7.451
7.609
7.739
7.847
7,936
8.009
8.069
8,600
9.873
11,335
13,014
14.940
16,974
18,839
20.514
21.992
23,278
24.382
25.322
26. 116
26.782
27.338
27.800
28.183
28.499
5.250
6,205
7,301
8,560
10.0O5
11.530
13.209
14.717
16.047
17.204
18,198
19.044
19.759
20,358
20,859
21,274
21,619
21,903
             64

-------
obtained in the 1985 DOE projections  (DOE 85b, p.22). It should be observed, however,
that our growth  rates represent growth in domestic production of uranium  and not
installed nuclear  capacity, and so our two scenarios do not necessarily correspond to 1.4
and 2.8 percent growth rates in nuclear capacity.  Factors which might cause nuclear
capacity to grow at a different rate than domestic uranium production include:  a
change  in the percentage  of  uranium imported (from the  61  percent  and 67 percent
levels  projected  in  the  year 2000);  improved reactor efficiency or enrichment-plant
efficiency;  the  use of   higher  fuel burnup  levels;  and  spent-fuel  reprocessing.
Considering these factors, as well as constraints on resource availability  (discussed  in
the following subsection), it is our belief that the 1.4 and 2.8 percent rates of increase
in domestic uranium production  are  appropriate for use  in a moderately  low scenario
and a moderately high scenario, respectively.


In addition  to the  DOE  low-case  and middle-case  projections of installed nuclear
capacity discussed above, DOE has developed projections  for a high case and a no-new-
orders case.   DOE's 1984  and 1985  high-case projections have average annual growth
rates during 2000-2020 of 5.2 and 5.9  percent, respectively.  During the  same period, as
The higher growth rates obtained in the 1985 DOE projections appear to result from an
inconsistent set of parameter modifications made by DOE between the 1984  and 1985
runs of the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES).  This system (DOE
85b, pp. 90-95) requires several user-specified parameter values,  including the growth
rate in  real aggregate energy prices  and the rate  at which  the nuclear  share of
electrical generation approaches in exogenously specified asymptote.

Continued  softness  in the  price  of  fossil fuels  makes  it likely that energy price
increases during the 2000-2020 time period will be lower than previously expected, and
that the eventual  shift to  nuclear energy will be slower than  previously expected.
Accordingly, between  the 1984 and 1985 WINES runs, DOE reduced the values assigned
to both the real energy-price growth rate and the  rate at which  the nuclear share of
electrical generation approaches its asymptote.  The first of these changes results in a
substantial  increase in  projected  energy  consumption, electricity consumption,  and
nuclear power generated; while the second change tends to slow or, if large enough, to
reverse the increase in nuclear power generated (at least during 2000-2020).  It appears
likely that if real growth in fossil-fuel  prices  remains  moderate, as now forecast, the
rate at  which the nuclear share of electrical generation increases  will  be  substantially
lower than assumed by DOE in the  1985 WINES run.   We believe that, if a better
representation of the  rate at which the nuclear share  of electrical generation grows
during  2000-2020 had been used in the 1985 WINES run, the system would have produced
nuclear generating capacity growth rates  which are  similar  to  or lower than those
produced in the 1984 WINES runs.
                                     65

-------
a result of retirements, the no-new-orders case shows a sharp 60 GWe drop in installed
nuclear capacity, starting  from 109 GWe or 106 GWe (in the 1984 and  1985  reports,
respectively) (DOE 84a, pp. 19 and 21;  DOE 85b, pp. 22 and 24).  DOE's projections of
nuclear generation and installed nuclear capacity extend only as far as  2020.   These
projections  and the OECD projections of uranium-production capability (OECD 83,
discussed  in an earlier footnote) are the only projections we have been  able  to  find
which  extend beyond the year 2000 and which relate to uranium production or  nuclear
generation.

The projections of domestic production  from conventional sources shown in Exhibit 4-5
were obtained by assuming that nonconventional sources would account for 25 percent
of the increase  in  total production through  the year 2025 and  ten  percent  of the
increase in  subsequent  years.  By  way of  comparison,, reduction  in production from
nonconventional sources accounted for  about ten percent of the decline  in production
during 1980-1984.  Increases in production from nonconventional sources  are expected
to be  provided  primarily  from byproduct  production  and, as a  result of  continuing
technological advances, from in situ leaching.

The primary source of  byproduct production of UgOg is from wet-process  production of
phosphoric acid.  At a selling price of about $60 per pound (in 1985 dollars), potential
UoOg production from  this source would currently be  about 6000 tons (De 79); though,
as a result of depletion of phosphate resources, this potential is expected  to  decline
over time, to 5000 tons in 2000, 4600 tons in 2025, and presumably to  lower values in
subsequent years.  Since prices are only expected to recover to about $50 per pound by
the end of the century (DOE 85c, pp. 143-144), production from this source is likely to
remain below maximum potential  until well into the next century.  The  post-2025
decline assumed  in the nonconventional-production growth rate reflects  an expected
gradual decline in phosphate-byproducts UgOg  production ater the  maximum potential
production rate is attained.

Historic and projected total  and  conventional domestic uranium  production  for  the
1980-2085 period, from Exhibits 4-1 and  4-5, are shown graphically  in  Exhibit 4-6.
Exhibit 4-7 shows total production by five-year period and for the fuU 100-year  period:
1986-2085.
                                     66

-------
                    EXHIBIT 4-6;

ANNUAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF
                                                           , 1980-2085
 r\
,-0c
I- o
00
II
0)1-
                                                          Alternate Case



                                                      Conventional
                                                  Reference Case
                                                     Conventional
                      I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I ! I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I M M I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I
         1980          2000          2020         2040         2060          2080
                                         Year
                                       67

-------
                       EXHIBIT 4-7;
            TOTAL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF U,00
                                          o o
                        (Short Tons)
              Reference Case
            Total  Conventional
     Alternate Case
   Total  Conventional
1986 -
1991 -
1996 -
2001 -
2O06 -
2011 -
2016 -
2021 -
2026 -
2031 -
2036 -
2041 -
2O46 -
2051 -
2056 -
2061 -
2066 -
2071 -
2076 -
2081 -
90
95
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
21.650
24.600
31.100
34.15r
36.61O
39.245
42.071
45.001
47,635
49.899
51.827
53.455
54.821
55.962
56.910
57.695
58.343
58.877
59.316
59.677
9.300
11.900
16.700
19.051
20.895
22,872
24.990
27. 188
29.392
31.430
33.164
34.630
35.859
36.886
37.739
38.445
39.029
39.509
39.905
40. 229
23.850
26.550
39.400
46.750
53.672
61,618
70.742
80.862
90.537
99.300
107.085
113.893
119.772
124.794
129.049
132,628
135.621
138.113
140.179
141.887
11.100
13.700
23.650
29.062
34.254
40,214
47.056
54.646
62,754
70.640
77.646
83.774
89.064
93.585
97.414
100,635
103.329
105.571
107.431
108.968
1986-2085  938.846   589.113
1.876.300 1.354.491
                         68

-------
                                    Discussion

This section compares our scenarios for domestic production of U,Og, presented above,
to total domestic uranium resources and discusses the relationship of  the projections to
total electricity generation.

Domestic Uranium Resources

The  projections of domestic UgOg production shown in Exhibit 4-7 (above) indicate that
between 0.9 and 1.9 million tons of U^Og will  be produced domestically over the next
100 years.  Over this time period, perhaps 200,000 to 300,000 tons may be obtained as a
byproduct of mining of other  minerals, with  the  remainder  obtained  from domestic
mining of UgOg.  A discussion of the  potential for byproduct  production of UoOg is
presented below,  followed  by a  discussion  of the extent of  other domestic  U3Og
resources.

Byproduct Production

The  most significant domestic source of byproduct uranium  is phosphate mining and
processing.  As  indicated above, a 1979 DOE  study (De 79) estimated that, by  1985,
6000 tons of U,Og could be produced annually as a byproduct of wet-process production
of phosphoric  acid at a selling price of  $40 per  pound (1979 dollars), but  that such
production  would  decline  gradually to  4600  tons by 2025.   Presumably, potential
production  from this source will  continue to  decline  after 2025.  Since the average
contract price for UoOfi is now only about $23 per  pound (in current dollars) and is not
expected to reach the required level until after the end of the  century (DOE 85c, pp.
143-144), current production from this source is only about one-fourth of the indicated
potential and is likely to remain below this potential for some  time.  However, over the
full  100-year period, a substantial amount of U3Og is likely to be obtained  from this
source, perhaps as much as 200,000 tons in the reference-case scenario and 300,000 tons
in the alternate-case scenario.  In addition, over this time  frame, there may be some
potential for a technological breakthrough which would make it  economically feasible
to obtain byproduct  U,Og from phosphate  rock which is used for purposes other than
the production of phosphoric acid.
                                      69

-------
Other potential sources of byproduct uranium are:  copper waste dumps; the red mud
obtained when alumina is removed from bauxite;  and the beryllium ores of west-central
Utah.  A modest amount of U3Og is currently being obtained from copper produced in
Utah and Arizona, and DOE estimated in 1980 (DOE 80, p. 117) that 500 to 1000 tons of
byproduct UQO0 could  be obtained annually from copper ores.  DOE also estimated at
            o  o
that time that a few hundred tons per year of byproduct U3Og could be  obtained from
red mud and that  17 tons per year would  be obtained from beryllium  ores when an
already installed circuit to recover uranium is put into operation.

Other Domestic Resources

The top half of Exhibit 4-8 shows DOE estimates of the total "endowment" of domestic
UoOg resources.   The  "endowment" is  defined as  all U3Og contained  in deposits
containing at least 0.01 percent (100 ppm) of UgOg.  The resource estimates shown in
the top half of this exhibit are grouped by resource category and by  "forward cost of
recovery".   The four resource categories used  in the DOE publication which is the
primary source (DOE 84c) for the  information  in the exhibit  are those used by the
International Atomic Energy Agency and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency:

      •     Reasonably  Assured  Resources refers to  uranium  in  known  mineral
             deposits which could be recovered within given  production cost ranges
             using currently proven technology  (and corresponds  to DOE's Reserves
             category).

      •     Estimated Additional Resources Category I refers to additional uranium
             expected to occur in  extensions of well-explored deposits and in other
             deposits in which geological continuity has been established.

      •     Estimated Additional Resources Category II refers to additional uranium
             expected to occur in deposits believed to exist in well-defined geological
             trends or areas of mineralization  with  known deposits.  (The  two cate-
             gories of Estimated Additional Resources, together, correspond to DOE's
             Probable Potential Resources category.)

      •     Speculative Resources refers to uranium which is thought to exist, mostly
             on  the basis of  indirect  evidence and geological  extrapolations (and
             corresponds to  DOE's  Possible   Potential   and  Speculative  Potential
             Resource categories).
                                        70

-------
                                                   EXHIBIT 4-8;
                                        DOMESTIC URANIUM RESOURCES
                                                  Endowment
                                         (thousands of short tons of U,Og)
                                                        Resource Category
     Forward Cost of Recovery
     $ 0 - $30/lb
     $31 - $60/lb.
     $51 - 100/lb.
      Total of Above
     Over $100Ab.
      Total
Reasonably
Assured
180
390
315
885

Estimated
Category I
42
72
100
214

Additional
Category II
630
440
605
1675

Speculative
540
460
620
1620

Total
1392
1362
1640
4394
30563
                                       7450'
                                    Other Significant (but low-grade) Resources
                                    Marine Phosphorites        4 million tons
                                    Chattanooga Shale
                                         Gassaway Member    5 million tons (55-70 ppm)
                                         Dowelltown  Member   no info.
                                    Seawater
5 billion tons (3-4 ppb)
 Sources
 DOE 84c, pp. 24-26, except as noted.
JDOE 80, pp. 116-118.
 Estimated from data in above sources.  See text.

-------
The "forward  cost  of  recovery" of uranium resources represents estimates of most
future costs of mining, processing and marketing UgOg, exclusive of return on capital.
These estimates include the costs of transportation, environmental and waste manage-
ment, construction  of new  operating  units and  maintenance  of  all  operating units,
future exploration and development costs, and appropriate indirect costs such as those
for office overhead, taxes and royalties.

The top half of Exhibit 4-8 shows estimates of all UgOg resources having a forward cost
of recovery of no more than $100  per  pound (1983 estimates) grouped  by  resource
category plus  one additional estimate of resources in the endowment having a cost of
recovery of over $100  per pound.  This latter estimate  was derived by taking a set of
1980 estimates (DOE 80, pp.  33-113) of the  total endowment  in  DOE's Probable,
Possible  and Speculative  Potential Resource categories  and subtracting  Exhibit  4-8
estimates of the quantity  of reserves in these three categories  having forward costs of
recovery  no greater than $100 per pound.  This procedure corrects  for  changes in
estimated forward cost of recovery between the 1980 and 1984  sources, but it does not
correct  for any additions or  deletions which may have occurred to  estimated resources
in the three categories.

In addition to  estimated U^Og resources in the endowment, there are some large lower
grade UgOg resources.  The most significant of  these are Chattanooga Shale deposits,
seawater, and the  marine  phosphorites from  which (as discussed in the preceding
subsection)  UgOg is  currently  being  obtained as  a byproduct  of  phosphoric  acid
production.  It is estimated that the Gassaway Member of Chattanooga  Shale is 55 to 70
ppm  UoOg and contains about  5 million  tons of  UoOg  (as well as larger  amounts of
vanadium, ammonia, sulfur and oil)  (MSR 78); the Dowelltown Member  lies  beneath the
Gassaway Member and is about  the same  thickness (fifteen feet) but is  not further
described in the DOE source  (DOE 80, p. 116).

Seawater  represents a  huge, very low-grade source of uranium, averaging  3 to 4 parts
per billion and containing perhaps  five billion tons of U,Og.   Using very optimistic
assumptions, the cost of recovery using  current technology has been estimated to be
As  indicated  above,  DOE's  Probable,  Possible and Speculative  Potential  Resource
categories correspond, as a group, to the two Estimated Additional  Resource categories
and the Speculative Resource category used in Exhibit 5.
                                      72

-------
 $1400  per pound  of UgOg,  though a  Massachusetts Institute of  Technology study
 suggests that improved technology could reduce the cost to $300 per pound, and possibly
 to $100 or less per pound (Ca 79 and Ro 79).

 If, as suggested in the  preceding subsection, about 200 to 300 thousand tons of U,Og
 will be obtained over the next 100 years as a byproduct of other mining activities, the
 reference-case scenario previously  presented in Exhibit  3.7  would require that about
 700,000 tons of U^Og be obtained from other domestic sources, and the alternate-case
 scenario  would require  that about  1.6 million tons be obtained from these sources.  A
 relatively insignificant  portion of this  UoOg could  be obtained from existing tailings
 piles.  (DOE has  estimated  that,  as of January 1,  1980, about  9500 tons could be
 obtained from active and inactive tailings piles at a forward cost of $100 per pound or
 less (DOE 80, p.119). Hence,  the scenarios indicate  that about 0.7 or 1.6 million tons of
 U,Og will be obtained over the next 100 years from the domestic resources summarized
 in Exhibit 4-8.

 Exhibit 4-8 (above) indicates that, excluding speculative resources, there are estimated
 to be 852,000 tons of UoOg with a  forward  cost of recovery  of no more than $30 per
 pound, and 1.75 million tons with a forward cost of recovery of no more than $60 per
 pound. Assuming an average  UQOQ recovery rate of about 90 percent for all domestic
                                1
 mining over the next 100 years,  production of 700,000 tons  would nearly deplete the
 resources with a forward cost  of recovery of less than $30 per pound; and production of
 1.6 million tons might  require the mining of at least some of the ore with a forward
 cost of recovery of over $60 per pound  (depending on the actual extent of our domestic
 resources and our ability to find them within the next 100 years).

 Both scenarios would also result in a significant increase in the price of UoOg from its
 present level of $23 per pound to  the $35-$80 per pound  range (in 1983 dollars)  by
 2085.  These indicated  real price increases are quite modest,  since DOE is currently
 projecting contract prices of about $40 per pound (1985 dollars) in the  latter half of the
 next decade (DOE  85c, pp. 143-144).
 The recovery rate in 1983 was actually 96.7 percent (DOE 84c, p. 20); however, it is
 assumed that this rate will decline with the declining grade of ore being mined.
2It should be noted that, since the "forward cost of recovery" does not  include return on
 capital, the selling price of U3Og will normally be higher than the forward cost of
 recovery.
                                         73

-------
Total Electricity Generation

Corresponding to each of the domestic U3Og production scenarios for 2085 are a range
of possible projections  of total electricity consumption.    One  end of  this  range
represents the  situation in which nearly all electricity is obtained from conventional
fission (i.e., from UOQ(-) and uranium imports continue to be limited.  In this situation,
                   ZoD
perhaps as much as one quarter of all electricity is derived from conventional fission of
domestically produced uranium.  The percentage of electricity may be  lower than this
as a  result of  greater  use of  imported  uranium  or  as a result of  greater  use  of
electricity from alternative sources; e.g.,  coal or solar.  (In developing our  scenarios,
we have  assumed that there  would be no  technological breakthrough which  permits
either a cessation or a substantial reduction  in the construction of new  uranium-fueled
nuclear power plants.  Under various assumptions, the percentage of electricity derived
from  conventional fission  of domestically produced uranium  might be as low as two
percent (or lower if any significant technological breakthrough  occurs).

A range of projections of total electricity consumption in 2085 is presented  in Exhibit
4-9.    The  projections correspond  to  the  previously presented reference-case and
alternate-case scenarios for domestic U^Og production under the assumptions that 2, 5,
10 or 25  percent  of electricity is  derived from  domestic  uranium sources.  The
projections presume that  31 million KWh (net) of electricity are  generated per ton  of
U3Og (DOE 84d, pp. 76-77), and thus they  presume that there is no significant increase
in reactor or enrichment-plant efficiency; to the extent that such efficiency improve-
ments may occur, the projections in  Exhibit 3.9 should be revised upwards.

The projections shown in Exhibit 4-9 indicate that between 1.5 and 17.7 trillion KWh  of
electricity will be produced in 2085.  The  more extreme values in this range, however,
represent relatively unlikely combinations of scenarios.   A high percentage of elec-
tricity from domestic U235 sources, for example, would mean a relatively high reliance
on domestic uranium and would probably result in sufficient increases in uranium prices
to warrant use  of higher-cost domestic uranium  resources, as would occur  under the
alternate-case scenario.   Conversely  a low  percentage of electricity  from domestic
U235  sources would mean more effective competition from other fuel sources (imported
uranium,  coal,  etc.) and  possibly the development  of new electricity sources (e.g.,
fusion or  the breeder  reactor, though,  by assumption, the development of these new

-------
                                 EXHIBIT 4-9;

             PROJECTIONS OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

                     IN 2085 UNDER VARIOUS SCENARIOS

                             (trillions of KWh, net)
Percent of
Electricity from
Domestic U-235
   25%
   10%
    5%
Approximate Number
of 1 GWe Units
Supported by
Domestic U-235
   Domestic U,Og Production Scenario
Reference Case
      1.5
Alternate Case
      3.7
      7.4
     3.5
     8.8
     17.7
                                                                    (*)
      60
     150
N.B.    These projections presume  current reactor and enrichment-feed technology

        (See text).

(*)      The most likely projections are those inside the box.

-------
sources would not result in a significant reduction in the number of U235 power plants
during the 100-year time period); under  these circumstances, uranium prices would rise
less  and we would  be less likely to tap  the higher-cost resources which would be used
under the alternate-case scenario.

In the light  of the above  discussion, the most likely projections of 2085  electricity
consumption  are those shown in the diagonal box  in  Exhibit 4-9.  These  projections
suggest that between 3.5 and  8.8 trillion KWh of electricity will be consumed in 2085 (in
comparison to the 2.3 trillion  KWh consumed in 1984 (DOE 85d, p.77)).

In addition to  the  projections of electricity consumption,  Exhibit 4-9 also shows the
approximate number of one GWe nuclear power-plant units which would be supported by
domestically produced  U2oc under each of the uranium-production scenarios (assuming
a 66 percent  average  utilization  rate).  Approximately 60 units would  be supported
under the reference-case scenario  and  150 units under the alternate-case scenario.  It
should be  observed that a substantial  (but undetermined) number of additional units
would be supported by imported
Projected average annual rates of change  in  electricity  consumption  were obtained
from  the  Exhibit  4-9 projections  for 2085 and  from DOE's projection of 2.32  trillion
KWh  for  1985 (DOE 85a, p.  214).  The results are  presented  in Exhibit 4-10.   These
results range from an average decline of 0.4 percent per year to an average increase of
2.1 percent per year.  For the most likely scenarios (those in the diagonal box),  modest
increases  of 0.4 to 1.3 percent per year are indicated.

It is also  possible to express the  rates of change in electricity consumption on a per
capita basis using any of several projections of population growth.  The U.S. Bureau of
the Census has recently published three series of population projections  for the United
States through the year 2080 (Cen  84).  The middle series shows  population growing
from  232  million in 1982 to an essentially static 311  million in 2080.  The lowest series
shows population peaking at 263 million in 2017 and declining to 191 million in 2080; and
the highest series shows population climbing to  531 million in 2080 (and increasing at a
0.7 percent annual rate  during the  last five years of this time period).

Using the middle series population  projections,  the  United States population will  rise
from  232  million in 1982 to about 311 million in 2085.  The  average annual rate of
                                      76

-------
                                EXHIBIT 4-10;

                  AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE

                  IN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085
Percent
Electricity from
Domestic U-235
   25%
   10%
    5%
                              Domestic U,Og Production Scenario
Reference Case
     -0.4
     +0.5
     +1.2
Alternate Case
     +0.4
     +1.3
    +2.1
                                                                    (*)
(*)      The most likely projections are those inside the box.
                                        77

-------
population  increase over this  time period is 0.285 percent (though the  actual rate of
increase is initially much higher and declines to zero by the end of the period).  Using
this population series yields the projected average annual per  capita rates of change in
electricity consumption shown in  Exhibit 4-11.   These figures are just 0.285 percent
smaller than the corresponding figures shown in  Exhibit 4-10, and they range from a 0.7
percent annual decline to a 1.8 percent annual increase. For the most likely  scenarios
(those  in the diagonal box),  modest average annual increases of 0.1 to 1.1 percent are
projected in per capita electricity consumption.

                        4.2  EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

Exhibit 4-12  lists  employment projections from 1985 to 2085 for  the uranium  milling
industry.  Projections are provided for the reference case and alternate case described
earlier in  this  chapter. The reference case shows employment growing steadily from
1991 to 2085 after a relatively stagnant period from 1985 to 1991.  The alternate case
shows  employment growing  through  1992,  declining steadily in  1993  and  resuming
growth thereafter.

The projections were developed in the following manner.  Output-per-person-year was
used as a measure of productivity.  Data for this variable were obtained by dividing
total annual  uranium concentrate production from  1967 to 1984  by each year's total
employment measured in person years, then averaging the results for the period (DOE
85e).   The resulting  productivity factor, 6.88  short tons  per person-year, was then
divided into  the production forecasts summarized in Exhibit  4-7,  "Total Domestic
Production of  U3Og:   1984-2085."   Average  historical productivity was considered
suitable for use in projecting  future employment because  no  technological changes in
uranium processing that might affect mill productivity are expected.

                      4.3  DEVELOPMENT OF  THE BASELINE

Chapter 3 presented data on the status of all existing impoundments.  Many of the mills
where  these impoundments are located have been operating for over 25 years  and have
only limited remaining useful life.   The  acid-leach milling process utilized  in  this
industry is a hostile environment  for  most  machinery.  While no  definitive  data are
available on the expected remaining useful lives of the  existing mills, it is assumed for
this analisis that none of these facilities would  be able to operate economically after
the year 2000.  Thus  new mills and impoundments would have  to be constructed on
current mill sites or on new sites to meet the production scenarios developed in Section
                                       78

-------
                                 EXHIBIT 4-11;

                  AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE

            IN PER CAPITA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, 1985-2085
Percent of
Electricity from
Domestic U-235
                             Domestic U,Og Production Scenario
Reference Case
Alternate Case
   25%
   10%
    5%
     -0.7
     +0.2
     +0.9
     +0.1
     +1.1
     +1.8
                                                                   '(*)
(*)       The most likely projections are those inside the box.
                                     79

-------
                    EXHIBIT 4-12;
         EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS; 1985-2085
                    (Person-Years)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2O01
2002
2O03
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2O17
2018
2O19
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2O33
2036
Reference
   Case

   262
   262
   269
   269
   276
   276
   276
   305
   356
   385
   407
   436
   465
   494
   509
   523
   533
   543
   554
   564
   575
   585
   596
   607
   618
   630
   641
   653
   665
   677
   689
   701
   714
   726
   739
   752
   765
   778
   791
   803
   815
   828
   842
   855
   867
   880
   891
   903
   914
   925
Alternate
   Case

   262
   276
   291
   320
   349
   378
   392
   4OO
   371
   378
   451
   552
   654
   719
   749
   763
   789
   816
   844
   873
   902
   932
   963
   995
  1028
  1061
  1096
  1131
  1168
  12O6
  1244
  1284
  1325
  1367
  1410
  1454
  1500
  1545
  1589
  1633
  1676
  1727
  1776
  1825
  1873
  1920
  1966
  2O11
  2055
  2097

-------
                     EXHIBIT 4-12;
     EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS; 1985-2085 — (Continued)
                     (Person-Years)
2035
2036
2037
2O38
2O39
2010
2041
2042
20(13
2044
2O45
2046
2O4?
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2O63
2064
2O65
2066
2067
2068
2069
207O
2O71
2072
2O73
2074
2075
2076
2077
2078
2079
2O&O
2O81
2O82
2O83
2084
208$
Reference

  Case

   935
   945
   955
   964
   974
   982
   991
   999
 1007
 1015
 1022
 1029
 1036
 1043
 1049
 1055
 1061
 1067
 1072
 1078
 1083
 1088
 1093
 1097
 1102
 1106
 1110
 1114
 1118
 1121
 1125
 1128
 1132
 1135
 1138
 1141
 1143
 1146
 1149
 1151
 1153
 1156
 1158
 1160
 1162
 1164
 1166
 1168
 1170
 1171
 1173
Alternate

  Case

  2139
  2180
  2220
  2258
  2296
  2332
  2368
  2403
  2436
  2469
  2501
  2531
  2561
  2590
  2618
  2645
  2671
  2697
  2721
  2745
  2768
  2790
  2812
  2833
  2853
  2872
  2891
  2909
  2926
  2943
  2959
  2975
  2990
  3004
  3018
  3032
  3045
  3057
  3069
  3081
  3092
  3103
  3113
  3123
  3133
  3142
  3151
  3160
  3168
  3176
  3184

-------
4.1  above.  In actuality,  many  of those mills  will cease being economic  production
options  well before 2000 and some, with extensive  maintenance and partial rebuilding
may well be economic after 2000.

While many configurations of mills are possible for future facilities, this report  utilizes
the NRC  model mill and  impoundment for all  future new mills.   The model mill is
thoroughly described in the Background Information  Document.   This model mill is
consistent  with the  model  mill utilized  in  previous analysis of  final  stabilization
standards  under other ORP and NRC rulemakings.

When a licensed mill is not operating,  it  is considered  to be on standby.   Licensing
authorities may require that a limited dust cover (usually about one foot of earth) be
placed on  the  tailings piles to prevent extensive blowing  of dry tailings during standby
periods.  Radon emission levels may not be substantially  effected by this limited cover.
In the past, mills have remained  on standby for long periods to time.  Today, only 2 of
the  27  licensed  mills  are operating, the balance are  on standby or preparing  for
decommissioning.  When a mill owner decides to terminate an operating license, the
decommissioning of  the mill and final stabilization of the tailings  impoundments will
occur.  For the purpose of the baseline it  is assumed  that a  period  of 45 years after
ceasing operation occurs  before stabilization.   While the period  of  5 years  of  wet
tailings and  40 years  of  dry  tailings appears  consistent with  current  practices, a
sensitivity run with only 20 years of dry tailings is presented in subsequent analysis.

Section 4.1 develops two future production  scenarios, a reference case developed  from
the DOE low production scenario and an alternate  case developed from the  DOE mid-
production case.  These forecasts are very similar  between now and the year 2020 as
they are based on the  stock of nuclear  power plants in operation or currently  nearing
completion.  The  basic difference in the  forecasts is the expected cancellations of
plants currently on order and the time period before new orders are again placed.  Such
assumptions are purely  speculative.  Substantial variance in these forecasts could easily
be supported through adjustments in these assumptions.   Both  cases  imply  that  nuclear
power  will continue  to provide  a substantial portion of  our future electric  generation
needs.  The low case provides for utilization of all existing facilities  in 2010.  These
new new   orders will  replace existing  nuclear capacity  and add  additional  nuclear
capacity over time.  This scenario was selected as the reference case as a conservative
judgement about the future of nuclear power.  The alternate  case with a  greater shift

                                     82

-------
to nuclear power  in the future provides a sensitivity to the conservative assumption
about the future of nuclear power.

Given the assumption about the expected useful life of existing mills and impoundments
and a 15 year operating life for new model mills, the specific number of mills required
to meet  the reference  and alternate case  production  scenarios can be developed.
Exhibit  4-13 presents the number of existing and new mills operating and coming on line
by five year period for  the next 100 years.   Mills  operating from 1985-2000 are all
existing mills and, by assumption,  they are all replaced by new mills in 2000.  It should
be noted that it  requires eight and eleven  new  model mills  for the reference and
alternate cases to replace  the  capacity of the existing mills that stopped operation in
2000.   As the  operating life of a model mill is  fixed at 15 years, this results in an
artificial  periodic capacity replcement  cycle for this new year  2000 capacity that
repeats every 15 years through  year 2085.

Given the reference case production forecast presented  in Section 4.1 above and the
estimates of emissions for existing impoundments in Chapter 3,  the development of a
profile  of the expected fatal lung cancer for  current and future impoundments can be
developed.  Using emissions data on existing impoundments and estimates of  emissions
of model  impoundments for future sites, Exhibit 4-14 presents expected future cancers
by type of impoundment and region of impact over the  next 100 years.   Exhibit 4-15
identifies the state in which the emissions occur for existing impoundments. Total fatal
cancers  shown in  these  exhibits are  a result of  the  emissions  from  all existing
impoundments or those constructed over the  next 100 years.  The period post-1985 is
the emissions and fatal lung cancers from impoundments constructed in or prior to 1985
and still operating or on standby after 2085 awaiting final stabilization.
                                       83

-------
                                 EXHIBIT 4-13;
NUMBER OF EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS IN USE AND NEW MILLS/IMPOUNDMENTS
   OPENED BY PERIOD FOR THE REFERENCE CASE(*) AND THE ALTERNATE CASE(**)
                      Reference Case              Alternate Case
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
(*) Reference
(**) Alternate
In Use
4
4
3
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
17
17
17
17
17
Case: Low
Case: High
Opened



8
1
1
9
2
2
10
2
3
10
3
3
11
3
3
11
3
Production
Production
In Use
4
4
3
11
13
15
18
21
23
26
28
30
32
34
35
36
37
37
38
39


Opened



11
2
2
14
5
4
17
7
6
19
9
7
20
10
7
21
11


                                        84

-------
oo
en
                                                                            EXHIBIT 4-14i

                                            ESTIMATED COMMITTED FATAL LUNO CANCERS FROM RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM
EXISTING AND FUTURE TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS

Location of
Impoundment
Existing Impoundments
Local Effects
0-5 kilometers
5-80 kilometers
Total Local
National Effects
Total Effects
New Impoundments
Local Effects
0-5 kilometers
5-80 kilometers
Total Local
National Effects
Total Effects
All Impoundments
Local Effects
0-5 kilometers
5-80 kilometers
Total Local
National Effects
Total Effects

1985-2005


3
30
33
50
81

.02
.2
.2
.4
.6

3
30
30
50
82

2006-2025


4
30
34
60
92

.3
3
3
5
8

4
30
40
60
101
TIME
2026-2045


1
10
11
22
34

1
10
10
20
30

3
20
20
40
65
PERIOD COMMITTED
2046-2065


.1
1
1
2
3

3
20
20
40
60

3
20
20
40
62
2066-2085


1
1
1
2
3

3
20
30
50
80

3
30
30
50
78
Post 2085b








6
40
50
90
137

6
40
50
90
137
Total*


9
TO
7t
136
214

14
101
114
1»8
311

JJ
171
193
333
526
          Mlvidual Items may not add to total due to rounding.
          Fatal lung cancers from piles uncovered In 2085 until they reach final cover.

-------
                                                                          EXHIBIT 4-15i

              ESTIMATED FATAL LUNQ CANCERS FROM EMISSIONS OF RADON-222 FROM EXISTING AND FUTURE TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS, BY STATE OP ORIGIN
                                                                                   TIME PERIOD COMMITTED
CO
O>
Location of
Impoundment
BX18TING IMPOUNDMENTS
Colorado
0-80 km
National
Total
New Mexico
0-80 km
National
Total
Texas
6-80 km
National
Total
Utah
0-80 km
National
Total
Washington
0-80 km
National
Total
Wyoming
0-80 km
National
Total
Total Existing Impoundments
New Impoundments
0-80 km
National
Total
Total All Impoundments

1986-2005


3
3
6

20
27
47

2
.7
2

1
5
6

3
4
7

.7
11
12
81

.2
.4
.6
82

2006-2025


5
5
10

22
30
51

2
.7
3

1
7
7

3
4
7

.9
14
15
93

3
5
8
101

2026-2045


4
3
7

7
10
17

.6
.2
.8

.5
2
3

.3
.5
.8

.4
6
6
34

11
20
31
65

2046-2065


.2
.2
.3

.6
.8
1

.2
.07
.3

.06
2
.3

.09
.1
.2

.04
.7
.7
3

22
37
59
62

2066-2085 Post 2085a


.2
.2
.3

.6
.8
1

.2
.07
.3

.06
.2
.3

.09
.1
.2

.04
.7
.7
3

27 50
47 87
78 137
84 137

Total


—
—
24

_
—
117

^^ _
_
8

r 	
	
17

	
r -
15

_
	
34
214

^^
i 	
311
S26
       *Patal lung cancers from piles uncovered in 2085 until they reach final cover

       ''todlvldual Items may not add to total due to rounding.

-------
                                 REFERENCES
Ca 79       M.H. Campbell, et. al., Extraction of Uranium from Seawater;  Chemical
            Process and Plant  Design  Feasibility Study, U.S. Department of Energy,
            GJBX-36(79), 1989, as reported in DOE 80, p.117.

Cen 84      U.S. Bureau of the Census, Projections  of the Population of the United
            States, by Age, Sex, and Race; 1983 to 2080, Current Population Reports,
            Series P-25, No. 952, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1984.

De 79       R.H. De Voto and D.N. Stevens,  eds., Uraniferous Phosphate Resources
            and  Technology  and  Economics of Uranium  Recovery from  Phosphate
            Resources, U.S. Department of Energy, GJBX-110(79), two volumes, 1979,
            as reported in DOE 80, pp. 116-117.

DOE 80     U.S. Department  of Energy, An Assessment Report on  Uranium in the
            United States of America,  GJO-111(80), October 1980.

DOE 84a    U.S. Department of Energy, Commercial  Nuclear Power; 1984, DOE/EIA-
            0438 (1984), November 1984.

DOE 84b    U.S. Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry
            — 1983 Viability Assessment, DOE/S-033, December 1984.

DOE 84c    U.S. Department  of Energy, United States Uranium Mining and  Milling
            Industry — A Comprehensive Review, DOE/S-0028, May 1984.

DOE 84d    U.S. Department of  Energy,  World  Nuclear Fuel cycle Requirements —
            1984, DOE/EIA-0436(84), November 1984.

DOE 85a    U.S. Department   of  Energy,  Annual Energy Outlook  1984,  DOE/EIA-
            0383(84), January 1985.
                                          87

-------
DOE 85b    U.S. Department of Energy, Commercial Nuclear  Power;  Prospects for
            the United States and the World, DOE/EIA-0438(85), September 1985.

DOE 85c    U.S.  Department  of  Energy,  Domestic Uranium Mining  and Milling
            Industry — 1984 Viability Assessment, DOE/EIA-0477, September 1985.

DOE 85d    U.S.  Department  of Energy,  Monthly  Energy  Review —  April  1985,
            DOE/EIA-0035(85/04), July 1985.

DOE 85e    U.S. Department of  Energy, Uranium  Industry Annual  1984, DOE/EIA-
            0478(84), October 1985.

MSR 78     Mountain States Research and Development  and PRC Toups Corporation,
            Engineering Assessment and Feasibility  Study of the Chattanooga Shale as
            a Future Source of Uranium,  U.S.  Department  of Energy,  GJBX-4(79),
            1978, as reported in DOE 80, p.116.

OECD 83    OECD  Nuclear  Agency   and  International  Atomic  Energy  Agency,
            Uranium;  Resources, Production and Demand,  Organisation for Economic
            Co-operation and Development, December 1983.

Rod 79      M.R.  Rodman, et.al., Extraction of Uranium from  Seawater;  Evaluation
            of Uranium Resources and Plant Siting,  GJBX-35(79), 1979, as reported in
            DOE 80, p.117.
                                    88

-------
                                   CHAPTER 5:

      ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES FOR MILL TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS

The reduction of radon-222 emissions from licensed  uranium mills is most effectively
accomplished by managing the tailings impoundments because radon-222 emissions  from
the milling circuit are relatively small and are not readily controlled.  For mills which
are not operating and are on a standby basis, nearly  all the radon-222 emissions come
from the tailings disposal area.

In this  chapter  the  control techniques available for reducing radon emissions  at mill
tailings impoundments are  discussed.  This is followed by  a  detailed  discussion  of
controls for existing impoundments and impoundments to be constructed in the future.

                     5.1  DESCRIPTION OF WORK PRACTICES

Radon emissions from uranium mill  tailings can be reduced by minimizing or covering
tailings dry beach areas.  Dry beach can be minimized  by keeping the tailings covered
with fluids. Earth or synthetic material can be used in cases where fluid cover is not
practical.  For new tailings  impoundments, staged or  phased  disposal of the tailings or
de water ing  and covering  are also  ways of  limiting  the  area of  exposed tailings.
Extraction of  radium from the tailings, chemical fixation, and sintering of tailings as a
means of reducing radon emissions have also been explored,  but have not been applied
on  a large scale and appear too   costly for general application  (NRC80).   The
applicability and effectiveness of control techniques  are, for  the most part, dependent
upon the  design of the mill tailings impoundments and the  mill's operating schedule.
Thus, the control techniques can be broadly classified as applicable to — 1) existing
tailings impoundments at  existing uranium mills, and 2) new tailings impoundments at
either new or existing uranium mills.

                                 5.1.1 Earth Cover

Covering  the dried beach  area with  dirt is an effective method for reducing radon-222
emissions and is being used at  inactive  tailings  impoundments.   The depth  of soil
required for a given amount of control varies with the type of earth and the tailings
radon-222 exhalation rate.
                                         89

-------
Earth cover  is useful in  decreasing radon-222 emissions because it detains radon-222
long enough that it will decay in the cover.  A rapid decrease in radon-222 emissions is
initially achieved by applying almost any  type of earth.  The high-moisture  content
earths provide greater radon-222 emission reduction because of their smaller diffusion
coefficient.

In practice, earthen cover designs must take into account uncertainties in the measured
values of  the specific cover materials used, the  tailings  to be covered, and  predicted
long-term  values of equilibrium moisture  content  for  the specific location.   The
uncertainty in predicting  reductions in radon-222 flux increases rapidly as the required
radon-222 emission limit is reduced.

The cost  of  adding earth covers varies widely with location of the tailings  impound-
ment,  its  layout,  availability  of earth,  the topography  of the   disposal  site,  its
surroundings, and hauling distance. Another factor affecting costs of cover material is
its ease of  excavation.   In general, the  more difficult  the  excavation, the  more
elaborate  and expensive  the equipment and  the higher the cost.  The availability of
materials  such as clay or sand will also affect costs. If the necessary materials are not
available  locally they  must  be purchased and/or hauled  and    costs could  increase
significantly.

                                 5.1.2  Water Cover

Maintaining a water cover over the tailings reduces radon-222 emissions. The degree of
radon-222 control increases with the depth of the  water  and  decreases with  the radium -
226 content of  the  water.  Factors affecting  this  practice  include the mill water
recirculation rate (if any), evaporation  and precipitation rates,  pile construction and
slope, phreatic levels and precipitation rates,  pile construction and  slope, groundwater
contamination, and dike or dam stability.  Some above-ground tailings piles  minimize
the depth of water in the  pond to reduce  seepage and possible groundwater contami-
nation by  draining  the water through an overflow pipe to a separate lined  evaporation
pond.

The diffusion coefficient  of water is very low  (about one thousandth that of a  9  percent
moisture content soil) and water is thus an effective barrier for radon-222.  In  shallow
areas, however, radon-222  release is increased by  thermal  gradients and wave motion
and emissions approach those of saturated tailings. Increased radium-226 content in the
water reduces  its  effectiveness in controlling radon-222 since it releases radon-222.
For a water depth less than 1 meter, the radon flux is similar to saturated bare tailings.
                                         90

-------
If a tailings impoundment is initially designed and built to maintain a water cover, there
is no added cost for this form of radon-222 control.  Continued monitoring is required to
determine if there is  any seepage through the dam or sides, and groundwater samples
may be required peridocially as a check for contamination from seepage.  However,  if
the tailings  impoundment is not  designed to maintain a water cover, this form of work
practice may be  undesirable as  it may cause  groundwater contamination.   For  the
purpose of  this analysis  saturated and ponded areas are assumed  to  have negligible
emissions.

                                5.1.3  Water Spraying

Water (or tailings liquid) sprays can be used to maintain  a higher level of moisture in
the tailings  beach areas.  This reduces  fugitive dust emissions and may  reduce the loss
of radon-222 from the tailings.  The effectiveness of this method, however, varies with
the  moisture  content of the tailings.   The radon-222  emanation coefficient initially
increases with increasing moisture content up to about 5-10 percent moisture by weight
and  then remains fairly constant. Thus, if water is applied  to a very dry beach area,
radon-222 emissions  would initially  increase  until  the emanation becomes constant.
Increased moisture after that  point  decreases diffusion and  thus  decreases  radon-222
emissions (St 82).  Over longer periods of  time, an overall radon-222 reduction of 20
percent has  been estimated (NRC80).  The overall feasibility of wetting to achieve
significant radon-222 reductions is questionable, especially in arid regions, since large
quantities of liquid are required to maintain high moisture levels.

                               5.1.4 Synthetic Covers

Synthetic material such as a polyethylene sheet can also reduce radon-222 emissions if
carefully placed and sealed on dry beach areas.  Covering  could be used on portions of
the tailings  area on a temporary basis and then removed or covered with fresh tailings.
Such a barrier would also,  at least temporarily, aid in the control of  radon-222 if a soil
cover material is applied.  The overall effectiveness of synthetic covers is not known
since leaks occur around the edges and at seams and breaks.  Synthetic covers have  a
limited life, especially in dry, sunny,  windy  areas  and will not provide  a  long-term
barrier  to radon-222.   Chemical stabilization sprays  that form coatings on the  dry
tailings are  effective for controlling dust, but  are not too  useful for  suppressing radon-
222 since an impermeable cover is not obtained.
                                         91

-------
                             5.1.5  Thermal Stabilization

Thermal stabilization  is a process in which tailings are sintered at  high temperatures.
The Los Alamos National Laboratory has conducted a series of  tests on tailings from
four different inactive mill sites (Dr81).  The results showed that thermal stabilization
was effective in preventing the release (emanation) of radon from tailings.  The authors
note that before thermal stabilization can be considered as a practical disposal method,
information is  needed on  the following:  (1) the  long-term stability of  the  sintered
material; (2) the interactions of the tailings and the refractory materials  lining  a kiln;
(3) the gaseous and particulate  emissions produced during sintering  of tailings; and (4)
revised engineering and economic analysis as more information is developed.

Since gamma radiation is still present, protection against the misuse  of sintered tailings
is required.  While the potential  health risk from external gamma  radiation is  not as
great as that from the radon decay products, it can produce unacceptably high exposure
levels in and around occupied buildings.  Also, the potential  for groundwater contami-
nation may require the use of liners in a disposal area.

                             5.1.6 Chemical Processing

The  Los Alamos National Laboratory has also studied various chemical  processes to
extract  thorium-230  and  radium-226 from the  tailings,  along with  other minerals
(Wm81). After removal from the tailings, the thorium and radium can be concentrated
and fixed in a matrix such as asphalt or concrete.  This greatly reduces the  volume of
these hazardous  materials and  allows disposal  with a higher degree of isolation that
economically achievable with tailings.

The major question regarding chemical extraction is whether it  reduces the thorium and
radium  values in the  stripped tailings to safe levels.  If processing efficiencies of 80
percent to 90 percent were attained, radium concentrations in  tailings would still be in
the 30 to 60 pCi/g range.  Thus, careful disposal of the stripped  tailings would still be
required to  prevent misuse.   Another disadvantage of  chemical processing is the cost,
although some of  the costs might be  recovered  from  the  sale  of  other minerals
recovered in the processing (Th81).
                                         92

-------
                              5.1.7  Soil Cement Covers

 A mixture of soil and Portland cement, called soil cement, is widely used for stabilizing
 and conditioning soils (PC79). The aggregate sizes of tailings appear suitable for soil
 cement, which is relatively tough, withstands freeze/thaw cycles, and has a compres-
 sive strength of  300 to 800 psi.   When combined  in a disposal system  with a 1-meter
 earth cover  over it, soil (tailings)  cement would likely provide reasonable resistance to
 erosion and intrusion, substantially reduce radon releases, and shield against penetrating
 radiation.  Its costs are expected to be comparable to those of thick earth covers.  The
 long-term  performance of soil cement is  unknown, especially as tailings piles shift or
 subside with age.  Also, soil cement cracks at intervals when placed over large surface
 areas.  The importance of this cracking on the effectiveness of soil cement has not been
 evaluated, but is expected to be small.

                              5.1.8 Deep-Mine Disposal

 Disposal of  tailings in worked-out deep  mines offers  several  advantages and disad-
 vantages compared to surface disposal options.   The probability of intrusion into and
 misuse  of tailings  in a  deep mine is much less than that  achievable with surface
 disposal.  Radon releases to the atmosphere would be eliminated, for practical purposes,
 as  would erosion and external radiation.  Overall, this method is  costly, provides  a
 relatively high level of protection  from 85 percent of the radioactivity in  the tailings,
 but  provides little protection from the  remaining radioactivity  and toxic materials
 unless additional controls are used.

         5.2 WORK PRACTICES FOR  EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS

 At licensed mills, tailings impoundments may have  reached capacity or be unused during
 standby periods.   To reduce radon-222  emissions,  impoundments that will  not be  used
 again could be covered with earthen material prior to mill  decommissioning. For mills
 that are on standby, a cover (soil or synthetic material) could be applied to dry-beach
 areas and, in some cases, water cover could be maintained to reduce emissions.

 The reduction of radon-222 emissions from active tailings impoundments depends on the
specific characteristics of  the milling process and the impoundment.   These charac-
                                        93

-------
 teristics include: layout and dike construction, dike height and stability, phreatic level
and permeability, type of milling process (acidic or alkali),  plant water balance, pond
evaporation rates, and availability of suitable earth cover material.  Operating factors
such as expected production rate, length and number of standby periods, pond capacity,
and expected mill life also affect the controls that could be selected.

At active impoundments, only those portions that are not to be used further  could be
covered.  Which portion and  how much of the  tailings  area  to cover  is a function of
anticipated mill life and quantity of tailings, size of tailings pile, and  level of tailings
(percent of capacity).  In addition, a source of  cover material must  be obtained and a
technique must  be developed  for hauling, dumping,  spreading and compacting the soil
onto the beach  area.  The limited access to the tailings area and the stability of the
dike may affect the size of the equipment  that can be used to transport and spread the
cover  material. Additional soil may have to be added to the dam or embankments to
decrease their slope and increase stability.  Metal gratings or timbers may be  required
to distribute vehicle wheel loads on the dike or dried beach area to facilitate the use of
earth moving equipment.

For existing tailings impoundments water cover is assumed not to be a feasible radon-
222 control strategy.  The  feasibility of water cover  is limited because  of  the high
likelihood of groundwater contamination and dike stability and seepage.  Also,  during
extended standby periods maintaining the  water cover will  be  difficult, especially in
arid areas.  If  water cover  is to be practiced, the impoundment  should be lined and
constructed to allow at least a 1-meter depth water cover with an overflow pipe leading
to an  adjacent  evaporation pond and/or recycling to the mill.  To use water  cover,
sufficient freeboard  must  be maintained  to  prevent  overflow  iand ground  water
monitoring may be required.

           5.3  WORK PRACTICES FOR NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS

Tailings impoundments to be constructed in the  future must, at minimum, meet current
Federal standards for prevention of groundwater contamination and airborne particulate
emissions.  This baseline tailings impoundment  will have synthetic or  clay liners, will
probably be built below or partially below grade and have earthen dams or embankments
to facilitate decommissioning.  A means for dewatering the tailings after the area is
fuU should also be incorporated.  This conventional design allows the maintenance of a

                                       94

-------
water cover over  the tailings during the milling and standby periods thus maintaining a
very low level of  radon-222 emissions.  Dewatering of the tailings can be accelerated
using wells and or built-in drains. A clay or synthetic liner is placed along the sides and
bottom.  Cover material may be added after the impoundment has reached capacity or
is not going to be  used further and the tailings have dried.  For the baseline model new
impoundment  it is assumed that final cover will be added forty years after the tailings
have dried.  Sensitivity to  the assumption of the forty year dry period is evaluated in
the  sensitivity analysis contained  in  Chapter  6.    Three alternatives to  the  work
practices assumed in this baseline model new tailings impoundment are evaluated in this
analysis. These alternatives are discussed in the following sections.

                5.3.1  Single Cell Impoundment With Immediate Cover

The first alternative  work  practice  for  new  impoundments  which  was  evaluated
consisted of the construction of the baseline single cell tailings impoundment with the
sole change being a requirement that the final cover is applied to the exposed tailings
as soon as they have dried.  It is assumed that the tailings will be completely dried five
years after the impoundment has reached capacity.  Because the baseline impoundment
requires  a means for de water ing the  tailings, five years is a reasonable time period for
drying.

                                5.3.2 Phased Disposal

The second alternative work practice which was evaluated for model  new tailings
impoundments was phased  disposal.  In phased or multiple cell disposal,  the tailings
impoundment  area is partitioned into cells which are used independently of other cells.
After a cell has been filled, it can  be dewatered and covered, and  another  cell used.
Tailings  are pumped to one initial cell until  it is full.  Tailings are then pumped to a
newly constructed second cell and the  former cell is dewatered and then  left to dry.
After the first cell  drys,  it  is covered with earth obtained from the construction of a
third cell. This process is continued sequentially.  This system minimizes emissions at a
given time since a cell can be covered after  use  without interfering with operation as
opposed  to the case of a single  cell.  Standby periods do  not present a  problem and
construction  of new cells  can  easily be postponed.  Less total surface area is thus
exposed  at any one  time.   When  the tailings impoundment has reached  capacity, the
entire area is graded and eventually covered with soil to meet Federal requirements.
                                   95

-------
Phased disposal is effective  in reducing radon-222 emissions since tailings are initially
covered with water and finally with earth.  Only during a drying-out period  of about 5
years for each  cell are there any  radon-222 emissions from  a relatively small area.
During mill standby periods,  a water cover could be maintained on the operational cell.
For extended standby periods, the cell could be dewatered and a dirt or synthetic cover
applied.

                             5.3.3 Continuous  Disposal

The  third alternative work  practice, continuous disposal,  is  based on the  fact that
water can be  removed from the tailings slurry  prior to disposal.   The relatively dry
dewatered  (25 to 30% moisture) tailings can then  be dumped and covered with soil
almost immediately.   No extended  drying phase is required and very little additional
work would be  required during final closure per Federal requirements.   Additionally,
ground water  problems  are  minimized.   To  implement a dewatering system  would
require  added  planning,  design,  and  modification  of  current designs.   Acid-based
leaching  processes do not generally recycle water, and additional holding ponds with
ancillary piping and pumping systems would  be  required to handle the liquid removed
from the tailings.  Using trucks or conveyor systems to transport the tailings to disposal
areas might also be more costly than slurry pumping.  Thus, although tailings are more
easily managed after dewatering, this practice would have to be carefully considered on
a site-specific basis.

Various filtering systems such as rotary vacuum  and belt filters are available and could
be adapted to  a tailings dewatering system.   Experimental studies would probably be
required  for a  specific ore to determine  the  filter media and dewatering properties  of
the sand  and slime fractions.  Modifications to the typical mill  ore grinding circuit may
be required to  allow efficient  dewatering and  to prevent  filter  plugging or blinding.
Corrosion-resistant materials would be required  in any  tailings dewatering system due
to the highly corrosive solutions which must be handled.  Continuous tailings dewatering
is  not practiced at any uranium  mills in the United  States,  but  it was  proposed  at
several  sites  in the  Southwestern  and  Eastern United States (Ma83).   Tailings de-
watering systems have been  used successfully at nonferrous ore beneficiation mills  in
the United States and Canada (Ro78).
                                        96

-------
                                  REFERENCES
Dr81
Ma83



NRC80


Ro78
Ro81
St82
Th81
Wm81
Dreesen  D.R., Williams J.M.,  and Cokal E. J., Thermal  Stabilization of
Uranium  Mill  Tailings,  in:  Proceedings  of  the  Fourth Symposium  on
Uranimum  Mill  Tailings Management, Fort  Collins,  Colorado, October
1981.

Marline  Uranium  Corp. and  Union Carbide  Corp.   An evaluation  of
Uranium  Development in Pittsylvania County,  Virginia. October 15, 1983.
Section E.3.

Nuclear  Regulatory  Commission,  Final  Generic  Environmental Impact
Statement on Uranium Milling, NUREG-0706, September 1980.

Robinsky, E.I., Tailing disposal by the Thickened Discharge Method for
Improved Economy and Environmental Control, in:  Volume 2, Proceedings
of the Second International Tailing  Symposium, Denver, Colorado, May
1978.

Rogers V. C.,  and Nielson  K.  K., A. Handbook for the Determination of
Radon-222  Attenuation Through Cover  Materials,  NUREG/CR-2340,
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C., December 1981.

Strong K.P. and Levins D. M.,  Effect of Moisture  Content  on  Radon
Emanation  from  Uranium  Ore  and Tailings,  Health  Physics, 42,  27-32,
January 1982.

Thode, E.F. and  Dreesen D.R., Technico-Economic  Analysis of Uranium
Mill  Tailings Conditioning  Alternatives, in:   Proceedings of the Fourth
Symposium on  Uranium Mill Tailings Management, Fort Collins, Colorado,
October  1981.

Williams  J.M., Cokal E. J., and Dreesen D. R., Removal of Radioactivity
and Mineral Values from Uranium Mill Tailings, in:  Proceedings of the
Fourth Symposium on  Uranium  Mill Tailings  Management,  For Collins,
Colorado, October 1981.
                                      97

-------
                                   CHAPTER 6;

            BENEFITS AND COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES

This chapter provides an overview of the  benefits and costs of the alternative work
practices introduced in the preceding chapter. Costs are estimated as the sum of direct
and indirect costs.  Direct costs are  based  on  conventional  engineering estimates for
excavation, hauling, grading, etc.  Indirect costs, which are estimated as 32 percent of
direct costs, are  assumed to include  the costs of engineering design, permit costs,
subcontractor's fees, and  a contingency.  Benefits  are provided  in terms of levels (or
reductions  in levels) of emissions and  total cancers which result  from the various work
practices.

The costs of the various alternative work practices are discussed in the  first section of
the chapter while the benefits are  discussed separately in the second section.  Within
each  section work practices  applicable  to new  model  tailings impoundments  are
discussed  first and  work practices employed  at existing  tailings impoundments  are
discussed second.  Total costs and  benefits under various regulatory  alternatives given
the reference case assumptions  are presented in the  third  section.   Sensitivity of  the
estimated total costs and benefits  to changes in the reference case set  of assumptions
is examined in the final section of this  chapter.

                     6.1 COST OF ALTERNATIVE PRACTICES

                       6.1.1  New Model Tailings Impoundments

The estimated costs of  the three alternative  types of model new  tailings impoundments
(single cell, phased  disposal, and continuous disposal) for  below-grade  and partially-
below-grade design are  provided in  Exhibits 6-1 and  6-2. Below grade model new tailings
impoundments were evaluate in this  analysis because they  are recommended  under
current Federal regulations.  All costs are given in 1985 dollars. Estimates are given
separately   for each direct  cost   component  (i.e., excavation).    An   indirect  cost
component, estimated as 32 percent  of direct cost is added in  to provide total  cost.
Direct costs at  all  three types  of new model impoundments include components  for
excavation, synthetic liners,  grading 3  meters of cover, and 0.5  meters of gravel cap.
The single  cell and phased disposal impoundments also include  costs for a drainage
system.  The continuous disposal impoundment  does not require a drainage system as
the tailings  are dry prior to being placed in the impoundment. In addition, the phased

                                     98

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 6-1


   ESTIMATED COSTS OF BELOW-GRADE MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS^/

                               (Millions of 1985 Dollars)
Item
Excavation
Synthetic liner
(30 mil)
Grading
Drainage system
Cover(3 m)
Gravel cap
(0.5 m)
Evaporation pond
Vacuum filter
Subtotal direct
cost
Indirect cost-
Total cost
Single Cell
Impoundment
21.51
3.03

0.40
0.40
4.05
1.92

-
-
31.31

10.02
41.33
Phased
Each Cell
3.68
0.57

0.07
0.07
0.76
0.37

0.52
-
6.04

1.93
7.97
Disposal
All Cells-7
22.08
3.40

0.45
0.40
4.57
2.21

3.09
-
36.20

11.58
47.78
Continuous
Disposal
22.75
3.82

0.51
-
5.15
2.54

4.80
1.46
41.03

13.13
54.16
a/Below-grade impoundments are constructed so that the top of the final cover is at
  grade.
-'Indirect costs including design, engineering, management, planning contingencies, etc.
  are estimated to be 32 percent of direct costs.
-Six cells of 20 acres are assumed.
                                        99

-------
                                       EXHIBIT 6-2
ESTIMATED COSTS OF PARTIALLY BELOW-GRADE MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS^
                                 (Millions of 1985 Dollars)
Item
Excavation
Synthetic liner
Single Cell
Impoundment
8.14
3.03
Phased
Each Cell
1.28
0.57
disposal
All Cells-7
7.70
3.40
Continuous
Disposal
8.14
3.03
           (30 mil)
     Grading
     Drainage system
     Dam construction
     Cover (3 m)
     Rip-rap on slopes
           (0.5 m)
     Gravel cap
           (0.5 m)
     Evaporation pond
     Vacuum filter
     Subtotal direct
           cost
     Indirect cost-
     Total cost
0.40
0.40
2.75
4.05
1.74
0.07
0.07
1.27
0.76
0.32
 1.99
22.5

 7.21
29.7
0.39

0.52

5.25

1.68
6.93
0.45
0.40
7.61
4.57
1.91
0.40
-
2.75
4.05
1.74
 2.34

 3.09

31.47

10.07
41.54
 1.99

 4.80
 1.46
28.36

 9.08
37.44
   a/
   - Partially below-grade impoundments are constructed so that tailings are half below and
    half above grade.  Slopes of dams are 5:1 (h.v.).  Earth for dam construction and cover
    is taken from impoundment excavation and borrow-pits when necessary.
   - Indirect costs including design, engineering,  management, planning contingencies,  etc.
    are estimated to be 32 percent of direct costs.
   c/
   - Six cells of 20 acres are assumed.
                                        100

-------
and  continuous  impoundments include an  evaporation  pond cost component and  the
continuous impoundment a vacuum filter cost component.

The  phased and continuous disposal  practices  b'mit airborne radon-222 emisions by
reducing the  area of exposed  dry tailings during  operations and by  providing  the
opportunity for  covering substantial portions of the tailings earlier than would occur
using current  disposal practices.  The total real resource cost for the proposed work
practices are somewhat higher than for traditional methods of disposal, and these costs
are  expended more  uniformly  over  the  operating life  of the  impoundments.   By
comparison, the current large impoundment method  of disposal requires  large up-front
costs for excavation and large rear-end costs for  final stabilization.  Estimated  real
1985 dollar costs for below grade disposal at the model new impoundment are shown in
Exhibit 6-3.  In this e hibit, costs for each technology are separated  into five-year
periods,  with period 1 beginning in  the current year.  The impoundment is active during
periods 1, 2 and  3.  Period 4 represents a 5-year drying period for single cell and phased
disposal. The fifth period is required for final stabilization.  Real resource cost streams
for each alternative  were estimated  for  entirely below-grade  impoundments.   The
present value  columns of the exhibit show the sum  (undiscounted)  and the present value
of the cost streams using a 5 percent or 10 percent real  rate of discount.  For purposes
of calculating the present values, all costs were treated as occurring at  the beginning of
the appropriate  5-year period; i.e., period  1 costs are treated as  current costs  and
period 5 costs are incurred 20 years from  the present  time.  Undiscounted costs  for
phased and continuous disposal exceed costs for the single cell impoundment method.
However the  present values  calculated at  a  5  percent real discount rate show that
phased disposal  is  slightly  less expensive than the single cell impoundment  which is
chosen  to  be  the baseline.   At a  10 percent real discount  rate,  phased disposal is
significantly less  expensive  than   the  baseline.   Continuous disposal, which costs
approximately $13 million  more than the baseline impoundment with no  discount, is only
$1.5 million more expensive at a 10 percent real discount rate.

This reduction in  cost difference between  the recommended and traditional disposal
methods at higher  rates  of  discount is  due to  the delay  in  the timing  of large
expenditures for  excavation  when a phased or  continuous  method  of disposal  is
employed.  The effect is markedly more pronounced for  entirely below-grade impound-
                                     101

-------
Alternatives
                                                   EXHIBIT 6-3
                CONSTRUCTION AND COVER COST STREAM AND PRESENT VALUE FOR ALTERNATIVE
                             MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS (BELOW-GRADE)-/
                 (Millions of 1985 Dollars)

          Construction
and Cover Cost by Operating Period
 Years from Start of Operations
      Present Value of-7
   Construction and Cover
Cost at Various  Discount Rates
         Discount

Single Cell
Impoundment
Phased
Disposal
Continuous
Disposal
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24

33.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.88

12.96 14.45 15.95 2.98 1.49

18.04 18.04 18.04 0.00 0.00
0% 5% 10%

41.33 36.42 34.62

47.84 36.07 29.02

54.13 43.26 36.21
a/    A limited amount of operation and maintenance cost would also be anticipated during impoundment
      life but these costs are small, when compared with construction and cover costs.
b/    Costs are assumed to occur at beginning of five-year period.

-------
ments, since in  this case the baseline impoundment has a higher share of front-loaded
excavation costs than in the partially below-grade case.  Further refinement of the cost
stream  to  annual  expenditures would further reduce the differences in  present value
cost.

                        6.1.2  Existing Tailings Impoundments

For existing tailing impoundments two work- practices were evaluated:  final cover and
interim cover.  Water  management or  water cover  was not evaluated because most
existing piles  were not  of proper design for this work practice.  Most notable is the lack
of liners at all but three of  the  existing impoundments.  Use of water management in
the absence of liners would  most likely  result in unacceptable groundwater contamina-
tion risks.

The cost of a final cover was evaluated for each existing tailings impoundment, with
the exception of evaporation ponds. Tailings in the evaporation ponds are assumed to
be excavated  and  move to one of the primary tailings piles at the site. Final cover is
assumed to be  a  dirt  covering of the  depth required to reduce emissions to  20
      2
pCi/m -sec.

Exhibit 6-4 provides the cost of final  cover for each  existing  tailings  pile in 1985
dollars. For each pile, Exhibit 6-4 provides background information on the type of pile,
status of the pile, total acres in  the pile, and depth of final cover  required to  meet the
                     2
standard of 20 pCi/m  -sec.  Direct costs for final cover are presented separately for
gradine slopes, covering the pile to the  specified depth, placing gravel and rip-rap to
prevent errosion, tampering etc., reclaiming borrow pits, excavating evaporation ponds
(for evaporation ponds only).  Indirect costs are estimated at 32 percent of direct costs
and are added to direct costs to provide total cost.

In  addition,   an  interim cover   of one  meter  depth  was evaluated using various
assumptions concerning  which areas of  the piles (i.e. dry versus wet areas)  would  be
covered.  Interim cover is  assumed to  be a simple one meter dirt  cover whose cost
varies in direct portion to the area of the pile which is to  be covered.   The cost of
interim cover  includes components for excavation, hauling, etc. expressed in terms of a
cost per unit of area.  A factor of 32 percent for indirect costs is included.  The total
costs  of the  alternative interim cover  strategies  are  shown  in  Exhibit  6-5 in 1985
                                      103

-------
                            EXHIBIT 6-4

  COSTS OF FINAL COVER OPTION ON EXISTING PILES ($M.1985)
a/   b/
Site/ Pile
Type
of
Statue
of
Pi*
Total
area.ec
Depth
of final
cover .m
Grabs 1 Cover to j Gravel*
slopes |20DC1/m2si rlo-rao
Reclaim
borrow pit
Excavate
evaooonds
Total
direct 1 Indirect I Total
cost lcosts.32Sl cost
Colorado
Cotter Corp.
Primary
Secondary
Umetco
Pile 1*2
Pile 3
Sludge pile
Evap. pond
NOT n« too
Sohto
L-Bar
Untied Nuclear
Churchrock
Anaconda
Blueweter 1
8luewatar2
BluewaterS
Evap. ponds
Kerr-McGee
Oulvtra 1
Quivtra 2a
Oulvtra 2b
Ouivtra 2c
Evap. ponds
Homestake
Homestakel
Homestake 2
Texas
Chevron
Pan na Mar la
Utah
Umetco
White Mesa
White Mesa
white Meae


2
2

1
1
1
1


1

1

2
2
2
2

1
1
1
1
2

it
2


2


3
3
3


$
C

C
C
C
C


s

s

s
C
C
s

s
s
s
s
s

5
C


s


s
5
5


84
31

66
32
20
17


128

148

239
47
24
162

269
105
28
30
372

205
44


124


48
61
53


3.8
3.8

3.3 1.88
3.3 0.82
3.3 0.1



3.4 0.46

2.8 0.5

3.6
3.6
3.6


3.6 0.85
3.6 0.53
3.6 0.01
3.6 0.01


3.1 1.4
3.1


2.4


3.0
3.0
3.0


9.12
3.37

15.40
6.04
1.88



14.50

13.40

24.32
4.78
2.44


34.30
12.74
2.85
3.05


36.50
3.86


8.39


4.07
5.17
4.50


1.47
0.54

8.33
3.18
0.35



4.43

4.72

4.18
0.82
0.42


10.20
3.88
0.49
0.52


18.36
0.77


2.17


0.84
1.07
0.93


0.40
0.17

0.65
0.28
0.11



0.61

0.57

0.98
0.23
0.13


1.35
0.54
0.15
0.16


1.43
0.19


0.38


0.20
0.25
0.22
                                                   0.48
                                                   4.59
                                                   10.54
10.99
4.08
26.26
10.32
2.44
0.48
20.00
19.19
29.48
5.84
2.99
4.59
46.70
17.69
3.50
3.75
10.54
57.69
4.8Z
3.52
1.31
8.40
3.30
0.78
0.15
6.40
6.14
9.43
1.87
0.96
1.47
14.94
5.66
1.12
1.20
3.37
18.46
1.54
14.51
5.39
34.66
13.62
3.22
0.64
26.40
25.33
38.91
7.70
3.95
6.06
61.64
2335
4.62
4.95
13.91
76 IS
6.36
                                                          10.93    3.50   14.43
                                                          5.11
                                                          6.49
                                                          5.64
1.64
2.08
1.81
6.75
8.56
7.45

-------
CJl
                                                                     EXHIBIT 6-4(cont.)

                                        COSTS OF FINAL COVER OPTIONS ON EXISTING PILES ($M.1985)
                                        a/     b/

Site/ Pile

Type
of
piH
Status
or
otto

Total
are. ac
Depth
of final
cover jn

OradB 1 Cover to 1 Gravel*! Reclaim
slooes 120 oC1/m2si rlo-raa 1 borrow olt
Excavate
evao ponds
Total
direct 1 Indirect 1 Total
cost lootts.32>l cost
RuAlgom
Rtol
Rto2
Atlas
hood
Plateau Res
Shootarlng
Washington
Dawn Mining
Ford 1 ,2.3
Ford 4
Western Nuclear
Sherwood
tvap. pond
Wvonliw
Pathfinder
Gas Him 1
Gas Hills 2
Cos Hills 3
Gas Him 4
Wostarn Nuclear
Split Rock
Umetoo
E. Gas Hllte
A-9 Pit
Leach pad
Evappond)

2
2

1

2


2
3

2
2


2
2
2
2

2

2
3
2
2

A
A

5

S


C
5

$
5


S
C
S
$

$

C
S
S
S

44
32

147

7


95
26

94
16


124
54
22
89

156

151
25
22
20

3.5
3.5

3.4

2.8


39
3.9

2.4



3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2

3.2

2.9
2.9
2.9


4.34
3.16

1.1 24.10

0.55


10.56
3.11

6.41



11.19
4.87
1.98
8.03

14.18

12.26
2.03
1.79


0.77
0.56

10.29

0.12


1.66
0.49

1.64



2.17
0.94
0.38
1.56

2.73

2.64
0.44
0.38


0.21
0.16

1.00

0.04


0.46
0.16

0.30



0.48
0.23
0.11
0.36

0.60

0.53
0.1 1
0.10


5.33
3.88

36.49

0.71


12.68
3.76

8.35
0.45 0.45


13.64
6.05
2.48
9.95

17.51

15.43
2.58
2.27
0.57 0.57

1.70
1.24

11.66

0.23


4.06
1.20

2.67
0.15


4.43
1.94
0.79
3.18

5.60

494
0.83
0.73
0.16

7.03
5.13

48.17

0.94


16.73
497

11.03
0.60


18.27
799
3.26
13.13

23.11

20.37
341
3.00
0.75
Rocky Mountain Energy
Bear Creek
Pathfinder
Shirley Basin
Minerals Exp.
Sweatwater
TOTALS
2

2

2

S

A

*

121

261

37
3602
3.2

3.4

28

10.92

25.49

2.89
7.7 359
2.12

4.56

0.65
102
0.47

1.02

0.15
16
13.51

31.08

3.69
17 500
4.32

9.94

1.18
160
17.83

41.02

467
660
                           Note:    Dams  constructed  of  tailings are graded to a 5h: Iv slope, 0.45m of gravel is applied  to  the  tops of all
                                   impoundments and 0.45m of rip-rap is applied to the slopes of dams constructed of tailings.  Cover material is
                                   excavated on site, borrow pit is  reclaimed.   Evaporation  ponds are excavated  and material placed on tailings
                                   impoundment before cover.


                         - Type of Impoundment:  1 = dam constructed of coarse tailings; 2 = earthen dam; 3 = below grade.

                         - Statin of impoundment: A = active; S = standby (will be used when operations resume); C = filled to capacity (will not be
                           used again).

-------
                                     EXHIBIT 6-5:

                 COST OF INTERIM COVER OPTIONS ON EXISTING PILES
(Millions
Company
State Name
Colorado Cotter Corp.

Umetco



New Mexico Sohio
United Nuclear
Anaconda



Kerr-McGee




Homestake

Texas Chevron
Utah Umetco


Rio Algom

Atlas
Plateau Res.
Washington Dawn Mining

Western Nuclear

Wyoming Pathfinder



Western Nuclear
Umetco



Rock Mt. Energy
Pathfinder
Minerals Exp.
U.S. Total-/
of 1985 Dollars)
Pile
Name
Primary
Secondary
Pile 1&2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Quivira 1
Quivira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Panna Maria
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Rio 1
Rio 2
Moab
Shootaring
Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Split Rock
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Bear Creek
Shirley Basin
Sweetwater

Cost
Berm
Area
Only
0.00
0.00
1.68
0.63
0.00
0.00
0.59
0.98
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.43
0.55
0.15
0.15
0.00
3.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.50
of Interim Cover
Berm and
Current Dry
Areas
0.15
1.12
2.32
1.08
0.71
0.55
1.68
2.43
8.94
1.76
0.90
1.80
7.14
2.24
0.94
0.98
3.55
4.08
1.35
1.35
1.27
1.68
0.53
1.43
0.55
3.37
0.04
3.55
0.41
2.61
0.00
4.45
1.49
0.08
0.41
1.61
5.65
0.53
0.82
0.00
1.98
2.24
0.26
80.03
All
Areas-
3.14
1.16
2.47
1.20
0.75
0.63
4.79
5.53
8.94
1.76
0.90
6.06
10.06
3.92
1.04
1.12
13.91
7.67
1.65
4.63
1.80
2.28
1.98
1.65
1.20
5.49
0.26
3.55
1.04
3.51
0.59
4.63
2.02
0.82
3.33
5.83
5.65
0.94
0.82
0.75
4.53
9.75
1.39
145.14
a/  Assumes the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry out.
b/  Totals may not agree due to rounding
                                          106

-------
dollars.  Costs  are given separately for:  (1) covering the berm  area (i.e.  any dam
constructed with tailings); (2) for covering both the berm  area (if any) and other dry
portions of the tailings pile; and (3) for covering the entire pile (assuming that currently
wet areas of the pile have had time to dry).

                6.2 BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES

                       6.2.1 New Model Tailings Impoundments

The  radon-222 emissions from  model new tailings impoundments  are summarized in
Exhibit 6-6.  Operational emissions are given  on a  yearly basis  for the 15 years active
period, the 5 year dry out period, and as an average for the  entire 20 year period.  Post-
operational emissions are also given on a yearly basis for each pile type.  These yearly
emissions are then summed to provide estimates  of total emissions for each pile type
over 20 years, 40 years and 60 years.  Exhibit  6-7 provides the total  number of fatal
cancers which will occur over 20, 40 and 60 years as a result of the radon-222 emissions
estimated in Exhibit 6-6. Exhibit 6-7 also provides the number of fatal cancers which
will  be avoided over  20, 40 and 60 years as a result of using an impoundment strategy
other than a single cell impoundment with no required final cover.

                        6.2.2  Existing Tailings Impoundments

The  radon-222 emission levels given  various work practices were  estimated  for each
existing tailings pile and are presented in an annual basis in Exhibit 6-8.  The resulting
estimated  fatal cancers per  year which will result  from  these emissions were also
calculated and are presented in Exhibit 6-9.  Emissions and fatal cancers are  provided
for current conditions, assuming that the piles have had time to dry,  assuming that a
one meter dirt cover has been placed on tailing sand berms (without drying), assuming
that a one meter  dirt cover has been placed  on all currently dry portions of the piles,
assuming that a one meter interim cover has been placed over the entire pile (assuming
the wet  areas of the piles have  had time to dry), and assuming that the piles have
                                                                   2
received a final cover of depth required to reduce emission to 20 pCi/m  -sec.

It should be  noted that when interim cover is  applied  to  the dry portions of an
impoundment  with wet or ponded  areas, emissions (and fatal cancers)  will rise as  the
currently  wet areas dry.  The emissions (or fatal cancers)  which will be incurred after
                                     107

-------
                                                          EXHIBIT 6-6
o
oo
SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM MODEL



1.
2.

3.

4.




Alternative
Single cell
c/
Impoundment-
Phased
disposal
Continuous
disposal
No action
(single cell
without cover)

a/
Operational Emissions (kCi/y)-
Active Dry Out
Years Years
0-15 16-20 Average
0.8 2.5 1.2
NA NA 0.7-/

NA NA 0.5-/

0.8 2.5 1.2



Post -Operational
a/
Emissions (kCi/y)-
With
Final
Uncovered Cover-
NA 0.3
NA 0.3

NA 0.3

4.2 NA


NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS

Total Emissions (kCi)

20 40 60
years years years
24 30 36
14 20 26

9 15 21

24 110 190


      NA - not applicable
                                                   2
      a/ Emission estimates based on a flux of 1 pCi/m -sec per pCi radium-226 per g tailings and a

         radium-226 concentration of 280 pCi/g
                                    2
      b/ Final cover to meet 20 pCi/m  -sec standard

      c/ Assumes 20% of the impoundment area is dry beach during the 15-year active life, remainder is

         water covered.

      d/ Based on 20-year life, 15-year active, and 5-year dry out.

      e/ Based on

-------
                                                       EXHIBIT 6-7:
                         SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS AND FATAL CANCERS AVOIDED
                                      DUE TO MODEL NEW TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS
                                                                                    a
                                                       Fatal Cancers
                                           20 Years       40 Years
                                                   60 Years
                                                                       Fatal Cancers Avoided
                                        20 Years      40 Years
                                                      60 Years
   No Action    —   Single Cell
                    Impoundment
                    (without final cover)
                         0.5
to
   Alternative 1 —   Single Cell
                    Impoundment
                    (with final cover
                    after 20 years)
                         0.5
             0.6
               0.7
   Alternative 2 —   Phased
                    Disposal
                         0.3
             0.4
               0.5
              0.2
   Alternative 3
Continuous
Disposal
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.3
   Differences may not add due to rounding.

  'Fatal cancers avoided by choosing alternative diposal technology over the conventional single cell impoundment.

-------
                                                                  EXHIBIT 6-8:
                      SUMMARY OF RADON-222 EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS GIVEN VARIOUS COVERS
RADON-222 Emissions (kei/y)


State
Colorado





New Mexico












Texas
Utah






Washington



Wyoming











ANNUAL
U.S. TOTAL

Company
Name
Cotter Corp

Umetco



Sohio
United Nuclear
Anaconda



Kerr-McGee




Homestake

Chevron
Umetco


Rio Algom

Atlas
Plateau Res.
Dawn Mining

Western Nuclear

Pathfinder



Western Nuclear
Umetco



Rock Mt. Energy
Pathfinder
Minerals Exp.



Pile
Name
Primary
Secondary
Pile 1&2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Quivira 1
Qulvira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Panna Maria
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Riol
Rio 2
Moab
Shootaring
Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Split Rock
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Bear Creek
Shirley Basin
Sweetwater



1985
Conditions
0.4
3.0
3.8
1.8
1.2
0.9
2.9
2.4
18.9
3.7
1.9
3.8
15.1
4.7
2.0
2.1
7.5
5.4
1.8
0.9
1.5
2.0
0.6
2.7
1.1
6.2
0.0
10.3
0.0
1.8
0.0
6.4
2.1
0.1
0.6
2.4
6.0
0.6
0.9
0.0
2.8
4.1
0.2

136.6
All
Areas
Dry
With-
out
Covers
8.4
3.1
4.0
2.0
1.2
1.0
8.2
5.5
18.9
3.7
1.9
12.8
21.3
8.3
2.2
2.4
29.4
10.1
2.2
3.1
2.1
2.7
2.4
3.1
2.3
10.1
0.2
10.3
3.0
2.4
0.4
6.6
2.9
1.2
4.8
8.6
6.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
6.5
18.0
1.3

248.6
i
Interim Cover
On Berm
0.4
3.0
2.1
1.2
1.2
0.9
2.3
2.0
18.9
3.7
1.9
3.8
13.2
4.0
1.8
1.9
7.5
2.6
1.8
0.9
1.5
2.0
0.6
2.7
1.1
4.1
0.0
10.3
0.0
1.8
0.0
6.4
2.1
0.1
0.6
2.4
6.0
0.6
0.9
0.0
2.8
4.1
0.2

125.8
1
Interim Cover
On Berm and Dry
0.2
1.1
1.5
0.7
0.4
0.4
1.1
0.9
7.3
1.4
0.7
1.5
5.8
1.8
0.8
0.8
2.9
2.1
0.7
0.3
0.6
0.8
0.2
1.0
0.4
2.4
0.0
4.0
0.5
0.7
0.0
2.4
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.9
2.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
1.1
1.6
0.1

53.1
o
Interim Cover
On All Acres
3.2
1.2
1.5
0.8
0.5
0.4
3.1
2.1
7.3
1.4
0.7
4.9
8.2
3.2
0.8
0.9
11.3
3.9
0.8
1.2
0.8
1.0
0.9
1.2
0.9
3.9
0.1
4.0
1.2
0.9
0.2
2.5
1.1
4.6
1.8
3.3
2.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
2.5
6.9
0.5

103.4
•»
Final
Cover
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
—
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.1
—
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
—
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
	
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.1
	
0.3
0.7
0.1

8.8
Assumes current level of water cover.
Assumes the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry.
Assume* evaporation ponds are moved to main Impoundment at final i

-------
                                                                    EXHIBIT 6-9:

                SUMMARY OF YEARLY ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS FROM EXISTING TAILINGS IMPOUNDMENTS FOR VARIOUS COVERS
ESTIMATED FATAL CANCERS (COMMITTED CANCERS/Y)

State
Colorado





New Mexico












Texas
Utah






Washington



Wyoming











ANNUAL ,
u.s, TOTAL"
Company
Name
Cotter Corp

Umetco



Sohio
United Nucelar
Anaconda



Kerr-McGee




Homestake

Chevron
Umetco


Rio Algom

Atlas
Plateau Res.
Dawn Mining

Western Nuclear

Pathfinder



Western Nuclear
Umetco



Rock Mt. Energy
Pathfinder
Minerals Exp.


Pile
Name
Primary
Secondary
Pile I<5c2
Pile 3
Sludge Pile
Evap. Pond
L-Bar
Churchrock
Bluewater 1
Bluewater 2
Bluewater 3
Evap. Ponds
Quivira 1
Quivira 2a
Quivira 2b
Quivira 2c
Evap. Ponds
Homestake 1
Homestake 2
Panna Maria
White Mesa
White Mesa
White Mesa
Rio 1
Rio 2
Moab
Shootaring
Ford 1,2,3
Ford 4
Sherwood
Evap. Pond
Gas Hills 1
Gas Hills 2
Gas Hills 3
Gas Hills 4
Split Rock
E. Gas Hills
A-9 Pit
Leach Pad
Evap. Ponds
Bear Creek
Shirley Basin
Sweetwater


Current
Conditions
.01
.09
.07
.03
.02
.02
.08
.05
.4
.09
.04
.02
.3
.08
.04
.04
.1
.1
.05
.04
.02
.03
.008
.04
.02
.1
.0
.2
.0
.03
.0
.08
.03
.001
.007
.03
.07
.007
.01
.0
.04
.05
.002

2.45
Dry

.3
.1
.07
.04
.02
.02
.2
.1
.4
.09
.04
.3
.4
.1
.04
.04
.5
.3
.06
.1
.03
.04
.03
.04
.03
.2
.002
.2
.07
.05
.007
.08
.04
.02
.06
.1
.07
.01
.01
.01
.09
.2
.02

4.63
Interim Cover
On Berm
.01
.09
.04
.02
.02
.02
.06
.04
.4
.09
.04
.02
.2
.07
.03
.03
.1
.07
.05
.04
.02
.03
.008
.04
.02
.07
.0
.2
.0
.03
.0
.08
.03
.001
.007
.03
.07
.007
.01
.0
.04
.05
.002

2.19
Interim Cover
On Berm and Dry
.006
.03
.03
.01
.007
.007
.03
.02
.2
.03
.02
.03
.1
.03
.01
.01
.05
.06
.02
.01
.008
.01
.003
.01
.006
.04
.0
.09
.01
.01
.0
.03
.01
.0
.002
.01
.03
.002
.004
.0
.02
.02
.001

0.91
2
Interim Cover
On All Acres
.1
.04
.03
.01
.009
.007
.08
.04
.2
.03
.02
.1
.1
.05
.01
.02
.2
.1
.02
.05
.01
.01
.01
.02
.01
.07
.001
.09
.03
.02
.004
.03
.01
.06
.02
.04
.03
.005
.004
.004
.03
.09
.006

1.82
Final
Cover
.006
.003
.004
.002
.002
	
.008
.008
.01
.002
.002
	
.01
.005
.002
.002
	
.01
.003
.01
.001
.003
.001
.001
.001
.007
.000
.004
.002
.004
	
.004
.001
.001
.002
.005
.005
.001
.001
	
.004
.009
.001

0.15
 Assumes current level of water cover.
o
 Assumes the wet areas of the piles have had time to dry.

 Totals may not agree due to independent rounding.

-------
the wet areas have dried may be calculated by subtracting emissions (or fatal cancers)
under current conditions from these under dry conditions and adding the result to the
emissions (or  total cancers) previously calculated for berm or  berm and  dry interim
cover.

               6.3 ESTIMATED TOTAL SOCIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS
                       OF  ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES

The  work  practices for  disposal  of uranium  mill  tailings described in the  previous
chapter each act to reduce  the future incidence rate of fatal lung cancers  in the  local
regions surrounding today's  mill sites, in the local regions surrounding future mill sites,
and in a very large portion of the nation lying "downwind" of these mill sites due to the
four  day  half-life of  radon-222.  The economic  and  financial  impacts  of  these
recommendations vary significantly, depending on the year selected for conversion to
the recommended practices, since the industry currently  has a large amount of unused
tailings disposal capacity remaining in impoundments which do not comply with the new
requirements.  Adoption of the recommended work practices will also result  in a shift in
the timing of  major expenditures required for excavation of new  impoundments and for
the final stabilization of both new and existing impoundments.  The disparate  patterns
of costs and  avoided fatalities resulting from each possible choice of recommended
work practice and year  of introduction make  it difficult to  compare the  possible
regulatory alternatives without the use of a detailed site-specific  analysis.

For this analysis, the small  number (43) of existing impoundments at currently  licensed
mills permitted analysis of the impact of the possible regulatory alternatives at existing
mills using site-by-site data  on  estimated health effects and unit  costs presented above
in Exhibits 6-8 and 6-9. For future production at new mill sites, cost and emissions data
for the model mill and impoundment discussed in the Background Information Document
were utilized.  These were presented in Exhibit 6-1 and 6-6. In the baseline projections
to 2085 presented in Chapter 4, 85 model new mills and 85 impoundments are expected
to be constructed between  the years 2000 and 2085 under the low domestic  uranium
production scenario.  As  noted  in Section 4.1, the  alternative case of high domestic
production is also a reasonable  forecast. This assumption is addressed in the sensitivity
analysis at the end of this  chapter.  Production  requirements from  now to 2000 are
assumed to be  met with production from  currently existing  mills, all of which are
                                       112

-------
assumed to cease operation by the end of this century.  In this discussion total costs and
benefits estimates are presented separately for existing mills and impoundments and for
the 85 projected new impoundments at future mills.

                      6.3.1  Total Cost Estimates;  Future Mills

The DOE low domestic uranium production forecast led to the projection that 85 new
mills and model new impoundments would be constructed between the years 2000  and
2085.   Characteristics of the model mill and impoundment used  for this analysis are
described in  Background Information Document.  The estimated total cost and present
value cost of the alternative  work practices at the  future model mill were presented in
Exhibits 6-1 through  6-3.  For this analysis cost  data for  the entirely  below-grade
impoundment is used. In a sensitivity analysis at the end of this chapter,  total costs of
the alternative  work practices for  the  partially  below-grade  impoundments  are
examined.

The low production forecast, combined with the assumption that all existing mills cease
operations by the year 2000, leads to the projection that  11 model new mills are brought
on-line  beginning  in  the  year 2001.   Small growth in demand thereafter implies  the
addition of 2 or 3  new mills  in each five year period through the year  2015.  In  the
period beginning with 2016, the original 11 model new mills are retired, in accordance
with the assumed  15-year life for the model future mill.  In this period, 11 additional
model new   mills  must  be constructed  to  replace these retirements, and again an
additional 2 or 3 mills are required to meet the small projected growth in demand.  The
model for future  mills  therefore exhibits  a 15-year periodicity  which  is somewhat
artificial, resulting from the assumption that all existing mills  are  retired by the year
2000. This periodicity will be evident in all results presented in this subsection.

The estimated post-2000  life-cycle cost estimates developed for the alternative  work
practices at  the 85 future impoundments are presented in Exhibits 6-10A, 6-10B, and 6-
10C.  In these exhibits,  total cost by period and cumulative costs are  shown for  the
baseline single-cell impoundment at  the future mills, with  a 40-year dry standby period.
Adoption of the "straw man" assumption that the baseline impoundment will not achieve
final stabilization until  40 years after drying is based on a desire to estimate  the
relative magnitude of costs and benefits for all alternatives. Assuming a shorter period
before final stabilization , e.g., 20 years, results in lower cost and benefits estimates
                                       113

-------
                                   EXHIBIT 6-10A;

                       COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
                               	   		.	     __	i
            AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING

                                 (millions 1985 dollars)
 WKRIOD
 1986-90
 1991-95
 1996-00
 2001-O5
 2006-10
 2011-15
 2016-20
 2021-25
 2026-30
 2031-35
 2036-40
 3041-45
 2046-50
 2051-55
 2056-60
 2O61-65
 2066-70
 2071-75
 2076-80
 2081-85  (*)
 post-2085

TOTAL

PV(ltf)
PV(5X)
PV(IOX)
          baseli
          TOTAL
               0
               O
               O
             268
              33
              33
             301
              67
              67
             334
              67
             10O
             334
             100
             100
            108
            108
            439
            116
            5O4

           3513

           1865
            341
            101
ne
 CUMULATIVE
      O
      0
      O
    268
    301
    334
    636
    702
    769
   1104
   1171
   1271
   1606
   1706
   1806
   2237
   2345
   2454
   2893
   3OO9
   3513
COVER
TOTAL
     O
     0
     0
   268
    33
    33
   301
   130
    75
   342
   138
   116
   350
   179
   116
   392
   179
   124
   187
   158

  3513

  1969
   366
   1O4
IN 5 YEARS
 CUMULATIVE
      O
      O
      O
    268
    301
    334
    636
    765
    840
   1183
   1320
   1437
   1787
   1966
   2082
   2474
   2653
   2777
   3168
   3355
   3513
  added
TOTAL
     0
     O
     O
     0
     O
     O
     O
    63
     8
     8
    71
    16
    16
    79
    16
   -39
    71
    16
   -47
    71
  -347
cost
       VE
    0
    0
    0
    O
    0
    O
    0
   63
   71
   79
  150
  165
  181
  260
  276
  236
  307
  323
  276
  347
    0
                                    1O5
                                     26
                                    3.5
 <*)
Post-2085 costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
                                       114

-------
                                   EXHIBIT 6-10B:
                      COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
                    AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
                                          PHASED DISPOSAL
                                (millions 1985 dollars)
PERIOD
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
20O1-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
3041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
post-2085

TOTAL

PV(1X)
PV(5X)
PV(IOX)
       baseline
       TOTAL   CUMULATIVE
            O       0
            O       O
            O       0
     (*)
 268
  33
  33
 301
  67
  67
 334
  67
 10O
 334
 1OO
 100
 431
 108
 1O8
 439
 116
 504

3513

1865
 341
 1O1
 268
 301
 334
 636
 702
 769
11O4
1171
1271
1606
17O6
1806
2237
2345
2454
2893
3009
3513
PHASED
TOTAL
     O
     0
     O
   1O4
   129
   155
   171
   187
   2O3
   219
   238
   252
   254
   268
   270
   271
   271
   271
   347

  4066

  2218
   363
    87
DISPOSAL
CUMULATIVE
     O
     O
     O
   1O4
   232
   387
   558
   745
   948
  1167
  1388
  1625
  1862
  2114
  2368
  2636
  2906
  3177
  3448
  3719
  4066
                                         added cost
                                       TOTAL  CUMULATIVE
                                            0      0
                                            O      0
   O
-164
  95
 122
-130
 12O
 136
-116
 155
 136
 -97
 153
-163
 161
 163
-168
 155
•157

 553

 353
   0
-164
 -69
  53
 -77
  43
 179
  63
 218
 354
 257
 409
 562
 399
 560
 723
 555
 71O
 553
                                                  -13
(*)
Post-2085 costs  include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
2085 by not covered by that date.  All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
the year 2085.
                                       115

-------
                                      EXHIBIT 6-1 PC;
                        COST OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
                   AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
                                   (millions 1985 doUars)
baseline
PERIOD
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2O21-25
2O26-30
2O31-35
2036-40
3041-45
2O46-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2O81-85
post-2085
TOTAL
0
0
0
268
33
33
301
67
67
334
67
1OO
334
1OO
1OO
431
108
1O8
439
(*) 116
1 504
CUMULATIVE
0
0
0
268
301
334
636
702
769
1104
1171
1271
16O6
1706
1806
2237
2345
2454
2893
3009
3513
CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL added cost
TOTAL
0
0
0
144
163
181
199
217
235
253
253
271
271
289
289
307
307
307
307
307
307
CUMULATIVE
0
0
O
144
307
488
686
903
1138
1390
1643
1914
2185
2474
2763
3070
3377
3684
3991
4298
4605
TOTAL
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
CUMULATIVE
0
0
0
-123
6
153
51
200
368
287
473
643
579
768
957
833
1O31
1230
1098
1289
1092
TOTAL

PV(1X)
PV(5X)
PV(IOX)
3513

1865
 341
 101
4605

2546
 435
 1O9
1092

 681
  95
 8.3
(*)
     Post-2085  costs include all remaining life-cycle costs for impoundments started before
     2085 by not covered by that date. All post-2085 costs are expressed in present value in
     the year 2085.
       116
                                            116

-------
for all alternatives at both new and existing impoundments, however the relative costs
and benefits do not change substantially. (See Section 6.4.)

The  total additional  real resource cost stream  for the alternative work practices are
obtained by subtracting the baseline life-cycle cost stream from  the  life-cycle cost
stream  under the alternative  work practice, yielding the net additional  cost  of the
alternative. This quantity is labeled  in the exhibits as the added cost of the  alternative.
Present values of each cost stream are  shown at the bottom of  each column.  The
present value costs are calculated in 1985  dollars, assuming  that all costs in a five-year
period are expended  at the beginning of  the period.  The added present value cost of
each alternative is small, due to the large time span between the present time and the
beginning of operation of the first new model mills in the year 2000.

The  total life-cycle cost of the single impoundment option, with final cover five years
after filling,  are  identical to the  costs for the  baseline, which  assumes  the same
disposal system but  with  cover 40  years later.   Although total added costs for this
alternative sum to zero over the time frame selected for  analysis, the present values of
the  added cost stream  for this  alternative are positive.    This  reflects the  lost
opportunity value associated with the earlier time of final stabilization.

The  costs for the phased  disposal option  shown in Exhibit 6-1 OB  has  total life-cycle
costs which are approximately 15 percent  higher than for the baseline impoundment.
But a large portion of excavation costs are  incurred later in time for each mill,  due to
the more uniform  pattern of expenses for  the phased disposal shown in Exhibit 6-3.  This
timing advantage  for phased  disposal  reduces  the  difference  in costs when present
values are calculated.  At a 5 percent discount rate, life-cycle costs for phased disposal
are approximately equal to those for the  baseline.  At a  10 percent discount rate,  the
present value cost of phased disposal is less than  that for the baseline.

The total life-cycle costs for the continuous disposal option shown in Exhibit 6-1OC are
higher than for  the  baseline   impoundment.   Continuous  disposal also has a  timing
advantage in the delayed  expenditure of  funds  for excavation  costs.  Hence the  cost
difference  between  continuous disposal  and the baseline  method also decreases  at
higher discount rates. At a 1 percent discount the total  life-cycle cost streams differ
                                     117

-------
by 37 percent; at a 5 percent discount the difference is 28 percent; and at 10 percent,
only 8 percent.

Graphs of the  total added cost streams for each alternative are shown  in Exhibits 6-
11A, 6-11B,  and 6-11C.  These cost streams  exhibit the 15  year periodicity  in  the
pattern of positive added costs and negative added costs shown in each graph. As noted
above, the periodicity is somewhat artificial.  However the graphs clearly show  that
large cost  savings resulting  from delayed excavation  costs are  followed by positive
added costs later during the life-cycle of each new mill. Similar periodicity is evident
in the cumulative cost graphs.

The  present values of the estimated added life-cycle cost streams for each alternative
work practice at future  uranium mills are summarized in Exhibit 6-12.  In this exhibit
the present value  cost  at a  5  percent  and 10 percent  discount rate for the baseline
disposal method are compared to the present value cost of each alternative.  The added
cost for each alternative and the  percent  increase  in present value cost are  also
presented.

                     6.3.2 Total Benefits Estimates: Future Mills

The  estimated benefits  of each  alternative work practice  option at existing  mill sites
are calculated using site-specific health-effects factors  computed using EPA-AIRDOS,
based on the site-specific emissions estimates and local populations.  This procedure is
documented in the Background Information Document and is summarized in Section 6.2
above.   The  benefits estimates  for existing mills are discussed  at the end  of  this
section.  For  future mills, the location  of  future impoundments with respect to local
populations surrounding  the sites not currently known.  For this analysis, health effects
estimates were generated for  the 0-5 kilometer local area and the 5-80 kilometers local
region by using the average number of health effects per curie released at all existing
mill sites for each respective region. This procedure is based  on the assumption  that
future mills will be located  in rural and remote areas as are  the majority of today's
existing mill sites.  National health effects were estimated  using the same  procedure as
for existing mills, also based  on an average number of health effects per curie released.
The above assumptions lead to the following health-effect factors for new mills:

                              -4
       •      0-5 Km: 8.26 x  10   fatal lung cancers per kilocurie,
                                     118

-------
                         EXHIBIT 6-11 A;
  GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
              AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
       JDO
            NEW PILE COSTS-COVER IN FIVE YEARS
                     RVE YEAR TOTALS AND POST-2DB6 TOTAL
       SCO -
       100 -
      -JDO-
      -300 -
                                                       z
      -400 -H	r
         1900
                  2O10       2O3O      206O
                         ENWNO YEAR FDft PERIOD
                                             2O7O
pMt-ZOBS
       900
                        OUMUATW COSTS W PERIOD
      -100 -
                             119

-------
                       EXHIBIT 6-1 IB:
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF

           AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT

       FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL


           NEW PILE COSTS-PHASED DISPOSAL
                  FNE YEAR TOTAL AMD POST-aoM TOTAL
•
I
300 -
300 -


100 -
^oo -
-200 -





1
KXXXXXX





171
7
\\x\x


sXXXXN
OvXXX
vXXXX



1
/ 7
^
^
1




„
y /
1^



I
ra
/
i
[71
y
\xxxx




KXXXXXX
PI
/
^




1


                2010       2O30      20SO

                      EMOMO YEAR FDA PBBOO
                                          2O7O
                      OUMULATNE COSTS BT KROD
    -aoo
       tMO
                2010       2O3O      20SO

                       EMOMO YEU) FDA PEMOO
2070
                              120

-------
                      EXHIBIT 6-11C;
GRAPHS OF ADDED COST AND CUMULATIVE ADDED COST OF
           AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE AT
     FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
         NEW PILE COSTS-CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
                   FIVE WAR TOTALS AND POST-2M6 TOTAL
        1WO
                2O10      2O30      2060
                      ENDMO YEAR FOR PEJBOD
JUU -
200 -

2
* 100-
1
I
• -100 -
8
-200-
-300 -




t




mf/1
\\X\N
XXXXN







I




^ /•
II
i



Tip-, 7
/ / /
flf
a



7;
^/
vXXXX







^




'/
XXXXN





/•
\x\\\







I



/
'/
\\X\N







OvXXXXXX


                                          2O7O
                     OUMULATDC COSTS 91 PfOOD
 I
       1WO
                aoio
                         2030
                           121

-------
                                                    EXHIBIT 6-12;
                               PRESENT VALUE COST OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
                                             AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
                                                (millions of 1985 dollars)

Alternative Work Practice
For New Impoundments
1. Baseline impoundments
covered in 5 years
2. Phased disposal
3. Continuous disposal
Baseline impoundment
covered in 40 years
5 Percent Discount Rate
Cost of
Alternative
366
363
535
341
Added Cost
(%)
26
(7%)
22
(6%)
95
(28%)
—
10 Percent Discount Rate
Cost of
Alternative
104
87
109
101
Added Cost
(%)
3.5
(3%)
-13
(-13%)
8.3
(9%)
—
to
to

-------
                                 3
      •      5-80 Km: 6.13x10   fatal lung cancers per kilocurie, and

                                     _o
      •      Rest of Nation: 1.20 x 10   fatal lung cancers per kilocurie.

Estimated  benefits  for  the alternative work practices at the 85  new  model  mills
projected to be on-line  in the years 2000  to  2085 are presented in Exhibits  6-13A,  6-
13B, and 6-13C.  In these exhibits, baseline fatal lung cancers and avoided lung cancers
for each alternative are shown for the  local,  regional and national regions and in total
for each of the five-year periods.  Total health effects over the 85 year period are
listed at the bottom of each column.   The benefits and cumulative benefits at future
mill sites are graphed for each alternative in Exhibits  6-14A, 6-14B, and 6-14C.

A summary of Exhibits  6-13 is contained in Exhibit 6-15.   Examination of this exhibit
shows that all  three alternative new impoundment work practices result in substantial
benefits  when  compared to the baseline.  The percent of avoided  fatalities for each
region is identical,  due  to  the use  of the health-effects-per-Curie-released factors
discussed above. For each alternative,  the percent of avoided baseline fatal cancers is
between 80 percent and 90 percent.

                      6.3.3  Total Cost  Estimates;  Existing Mills

Estimates of the total cost of the alternatives at existing licensed mill sites are derived
by  comparing  the baseline  disposal  cost stream  with  the cost  stream  required for
disposal  under  each  alternative.  The additional real  resource cost resulting from each
alternative  is obtained by subtracting baseline cost from the cost of the alternative  in
each  time period,  then taking the present value of the stream of  additional costs.
Three types of cost  may be incurred:  opportunity cost associated with moving up the
time of final cover expenses, replacement  costs for disposal in new impoundments, and
interim cover costs  to the extent these costs  are not recoverable at the time of final
stabilization.

For existing impoundments, construction costs are considered as sunk costs, and only
the cost  of final stabilization is considered.  The timing of this cost will be affected  by
the proposed regulations, resulting  in  earlier final  stabilization.  In  our  model,  we
assume that currently  existing Federal regulations will require final  stabilization  of
existing  impoundments within 5 years after the  mill is required to go to new disposal
methods at new impoundments.
                                        123

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 6-13A;
                     BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
            AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING
                                (committed fatal cancers)
                                                         Avoided Fatalities
           baseline
                                     COVER IN  5  YEARS
PERIOD
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
                                   TOTAL
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
                                                                         TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2O11-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2O31-35
2O36-4O
2O41-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
poBt-2085
O.O
O.O
O.O
0.0
O. 0
0.0
0. 1
0. 2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
O.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
O.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
6.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0. 2
0. 2
0.9
1.4
1.6
2.3
2.9
3.2
4.1
4.8
5.1
5.1
5.7
6. O
5.9
6.5
44.6
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
1.7
2.7
3.0
4.5
5.8
6.3
8.0
9.4
10.0
10.0
11.3
11.8
11.6
12.7
87.3
O.O
O. 0
0.0
0.6
0.7
0.8
2.7
4.3
4.8
7.2
9.1
1O. 0
12.7
14.8
15.9
15.8
17.8
18.6
18.4
20.1
137.9
O.O
O. O
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
O. 1
O. 1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.7
5.4
O.O
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
O.O
0.0
1. O
1.1
1.2
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.9
4.2
3.6
4.7
4.9
4.2
5-3
39.8
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. O
O.O
O. O
0.0
1. 9
2.1
2.3
4.4
4.9
5.4
7. 7
8.2
7- 0
9.1
9.6
8.2
1O. 3
77.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3-3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.5
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12. 9
^ •• • 9
16.3
123. 1
TOTAL
 13.6 100.8  197.6
                                   312.0
 11.0  81.2  159.1
                                                                         251.3
                                          124

-------
                                   EXHIBIT 6-13B;
                     BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
                    AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL
                                (committed fatal cancers)
                                                        Avoided Fatalities
          baseline
                                                PHASED DISPOSAL
PERIOD
             REST  OF
O-5KM  5-8OKM NATION
                                   TOTAL
                          REST OF
             0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
                                                                       TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
post-2085
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. O
0.0
0.0
0. 1
0.2
O. 2
0.3
0.4
0.4
O. 6
O. 6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0. 8
O.8
0.9
6.0
0
0
0
O
0
0
0
1
1
2
2
3
4
4
5
5
5
6
5
6
44
.O
.0
.0
.2
.2
.2
.9
.4
.6
• 3
.9
.2
. 1
.8
. 1
. 1
.7
. 0
.9
.5
.6
0.0
0. 0
O.O
0.4
0.4
0.5
1.7
2.7
3.0
4.5
5-8
6.3
8.0
9.4
10.0
10. O
11.3
11. 8
11.6
12.7
87.3
0
O
O
O
O
O
2
4
4
7
9
10
12
14
15
15
17
18
18
20
137
.0
. 0
.0
.6
.7
.8
.7
.3
.8
. 2
. 1
. 0
.7
.8
.9
.8
.8
.6
.4
. l
.9
O.O
O. 0
O. 0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
0. 1
0. 1
0.2
0. 2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0. 6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
5.5
0.0
0. 0
O.O
O. 0
O.O
0. 0
0.5
1. O
1.2
1.7
2.4
2.7
3.3
4.1
4.4
4.2
4.9
5.1
4.8
5.5
40.8
0.
O.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
2.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
8.
8.
8.
9.
10.
9.
1O.
79.
0
0
O
O
1
1
9
1
3
4
7
2
6
0
6
2
6
O
5
7
9
0. 0
0. O
0. 0
0. 1
O. 1
0. 1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7- 5
8.2
10. 3
12.7
13. 6
13- 0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16. 9
126. 1
TOTAL
 13-6 100.8   197.6
312.0
11.7  86.7  169.8
                                                                        268.2
                                          125

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 6-13C;
                     BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
                  AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
                                (committed fatal cancers)
                                                        Avoided Fatalities
           baseline
                                     CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
PERIOD
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
             REST  OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
 13.6  100.8  197.6
312.0
 12.1   89.3  174.9
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-OO
2OO1-05
20O6-1O
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-4O
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
post-2085
0.0
0. 0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0. 1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
O.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
6.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
O.2
0.2
0. 2
0.9
1.4
1.6
2.3
2.9
3.2
4.1
4.8
5.1
5.1
5.7
6.0
5.9
6.5
44.6
0.
0.
0.
O.
0.
0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
8.
9.
10.
10.
11.
11.
11.
12.
87.
0
0
0
4
4
5
7
7
0
5
8
3
0
4
0
O
3
8
6
7
3
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
2.
4.
4.
7.
9.
10.
12.
14.
15.
15.
17.
18.
18.
20.
137.
Q
0
0
6
7
8
7
3
8
2
1
0
7
8
9
8
8
6
4
1
9
0.
0.
0.
O.
O.
O.
O.
0.
0.
O.
O.
0.
0.
0.
0.
O.
0.
0.
0.
0.
5.
0
O
0
0
0
0
1
2
2
3
3
4
5
6
6
6
7
7
7
8
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 1
0.1
0.1
0.6
1. 1
1.3
1.9
2.5
2.8
3.6
4.2
4.5
4.4
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.6
41.1
0.0
0.0
O. 0
0. 1
0.2
0.2
1.3
2. 2
2.5
3.8
5.0
5.4
7.0
8.3
8.9
8.6
9.8
10. 3
9-9
11.0
80.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13-1
14.0
13.7
15-5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
                                                                        276.3
                                         126

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 6-14A;
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
          AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — COVER IN FIVE YEARS AFTER FILLING

                      NEW  PILE BENEFITS-COVER IN FIVE YEARS
                                FIVE YEAR TOTALS AND POST-2006 TOTAL





f
8
I
$
i
8
e
I







iju -
1ZO -
110 -

100 -

90 -

•0 -
70 -
eo -
ao -
4O -
30 -
20 -
1O -















ral^lERRFlL^lE^f/]
WIFTRF?^ ^r^r/i YA\A\AY/\Y/\\A\A
?
\
\
\
\
\
\
^
/
y
^
'/
//
^
/,
/
















O -J-) 	 1 	 1 	 1 	 1 	 ! 	 1 	 1 	 1 	 1 	 1 	 1 	 1 	 • • • | 1 • 	 1 	 [-
1MO 2010 2030 2060 2070 port-2086
. 	 tMMMp YEAR FOR PCMOO
\7~7\ MATMNAL 1\NJ 6-«0 Km U771 O-6 Km
                                  CUMULATIVE BENEFITS BY PERIOD
              I
              8
              c
4OU ~
240 -
220 -
200 -

100 -

14O -
120 -
100-
•0 -
«o -
4O -
20 -
n -









B,Hli||
z?
)
^
fv\\\VsNKX
^
N
>N\\\VOs>|
^
N
S
\
N
\
^
;/
^
k\\\\\\\\
                     leeo
                              2010
                          MkTUNAL
                                      2030
  2O50      2O70

Km      C^l O-« Km
                                            127

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 6-14B:
GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE
                   AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — PHASED DISPOSAL

                        NEW PILE BENEFITS-PHASED  DISPOSAL
                                 RVE YEAR TOTALS AND POST-2086 TOTAL
13O -
120 -
110 -
1OO -
»o -
eo-

70-

eo -
60 -
4O -
3D -
20-
1O -















KjKj(S]K]KjK|K|W
^^r^f^fftff^SU/ustt/fi/U/M/U/YA
T71
\
\
X
X
^.
/

/
y
y
/
/
/,
//
/,
/.
















19»0 2010 2030 2050 2O7O pa*-2OBB
ENDMO YEAR FOR PERIOD
\7~7\ NMWNAL TvNJ 6-« Km V77\ O-6 Km
                                   CUMULATIVE: Boons BY PERIOD
                I
                o
                5
                I
260-
240 -
220 -
200 -

ISO -
14O -
120 -

100 -
80 -
«o -
40 -
20 -
0 -









»RlSi
nS^'
^^j^JbAj f\ / S /
^~m^™fy\/(/A// ^ £
!

^
in
"N^
\\XXKXX
/^
',

N
\
XAXXXXX
x
<^
^
\
X
N
X
X
^
x
>/
xxxxxxx
x
X
1000       2010

 CT7I NATIONAL
                                        2030
                                                2060
                                            FDRPERMO
                                           6-60 Km
                                                         2070
                                                         O-« Km
                                             128

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 6-14C;

GRAPHS OF BENEFITS AND CUMULATIVE BENEFITS OF AN ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICE

                 AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS — CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL


                   NEW PILE BENEFITS-CONTINUOUS DISPOSAL
                              FIVE YEAR TOTALS AND POST-2086 TOT*.





•
G
J
i
s
B
1







120 -
110 -
100 -

»o -

•0 -
70 -
•O -
SO -
4O -
30 -
30 -
1O -
O -













M ••
mmKlISlKI^KIW
	 ^rararaHH&ISElHElEl
A
x
x
V
V
\
>

/
/
/
/
/
/.
/
y
'/
















1MO 2O10 2O30 2060 207O po«t-2OBS
„ ENDM3 YEAR FOR PERIOD
l^/l NATMNAL IXNJ 6-«0 Km &ZZH O-6 Km
                                 CUMULATIVE BOCJTTS DT PERIOD
             \
aeo -
240-

220 -

200 -

180 -
ISO -
140 -
120 -

100 -
80 -
«O -
4O -
*o -













sll
mF5lr^01^ ^ ^

1
f
J?
X\\\\NK//x
UL
*\
y^
^
S
^
N
\^
I
/
%
\
\
\
\
\
\

y
/,
/.
/
\\X\\\\\X
LA
    2010


NATIONAL
                                     2O3O
                                   ENOMOYEMt
                                     rou t>-
FDRPEMOO
  Km
   2O7O


CZft 0-6 Km
                                         129

-------
EXHIBIT 6-15:
SUMMARY OF BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES AT FUTURE URANIUM MILLS
0-5 Km
Baseline Avoided
Alternative Fatalities Fatalities
1. Baseline 13.6 11.0
Impound-
ments (cover
in 5 years)
2. Phased 13.6 11.7
Disposal
3. Continuous 13.6 12.1
Disposal
5-80 Km Rest of Nation Total
Percent Baseline Avoided Percent Baseline Avoided Percent Baseline Avoided Percent
Avoided Fatalities Fatalities Avoided Fatalities Fatalities Avoided Fatalities Fatalities Avoided
81% 100.8 81.2 81% 197.6 159.1 81% 312 251.3 81%
86% 100.8 86.7 86% 197.6 169.8 86% 312 268.2 86%
89% 100.8 89.3 89% 197.6 174.9 89% 312 276.3 89%

-------
In the low  production scenario,  only five  domestic  mills are expected to produce
between now and the year 2000.  New tailings disposal capacity must be constructed at
these mills if conversion to the recommended work practice is required before the year
2000. Costs of these replacement impoundments at existing mills were estimated based
on cost data for the recommended work practices at the model new impoundment, as
shown in Exhibit 6-3.

One alternative requires interim cover on the dry areas of exposed tailings at existing
impoundments.  These interim cover costs  are considered  as non-recoverable at  the
time  of  final  stabilization, although a  portion  of  these  costs may be recoverable.
Interim cover costs may be recoverable when the  one meter cover is applied to the  dry
areas of  the pile.  At the time of final cover, only two additional meter  covers must be
added to these areas.  Interim cover on berm areas of existing impoundments may  not
be recoverable because of the need to reshape the sides for final stabilization. For this
reference case analysis,  interim  cover costs are  considered non-recoverable.   A
sensitivity analysis  presented at  the end  of  this  chapter shows  total cost for this
alternative under the  assumption that the interim cover costs are  recoverable at  the
time of final stabilization.

Estimates of  the total  cost  of each alternatives at  existing mills are presented in
Exhibits  6-16A through 6-161.  The costs in  the exhibit are expressed in 1985 dollars,
and  the  total  cost  streams  are separated  into  cost streams for  final stabilization
(cover), replacement of lost capacity, and interim  cover.   Baseline cost streams  are
presented in the left-most columns, estimated cost streams under each  alternative  are
shown in the center  columns,  and the net added cost stream for the alternative in  the
right-most columns.  The present values at the  bottom of each column were calculated
assuming costs are incurred at the beginning of each five year period.   Graphs of  the
total added  cost streams for  each alternative at  existing mills are  shown in Exhibit 6-
17 A through 6-171.

Examination of Exhibits 6-16A through 6-161 shows that the total added cost stream for
final cover sums to zero, when no discount rate is applied.  However, the present  value
cost of final cover  is positive for all discount rates greater than zero.  This  unusual
result stems from the fact that  identical real resource costs  for final  cover occur in

                                         131

-------
                                               EXHIBIT 6-16A;
                   COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                                 AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
                                           (millions 1985 dollars)
ENDING
YEAR
     BASELINE

FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER    KENT  COVER  TOTAL
                             COVER BY 1990

                        FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
                        COVER   KENT  COVER   TOTAL
                                                   ADDED COST

                                              FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
                                              COVER   KENT  COVER  TOTAL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
t>
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
•—"—«•
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL

PV(ll)
PV(5I)
PV001)
  658

  413
   69
    9
0
0
0
658

413
 69
  9
658

626
515
408
199

190
162
138
856

816
677
546
213
446
400
199

190
162
138
0    199

0    403
0    608
0    538
                                                       132

-------
                                              EXHIBIT 6-16B;
                  COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                                AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
                                          (millions 1985 dollars)
ENDING
YEAR
     BASELINE

FINAL REPLACE INTERIlt
COVER   NENT  COVER  TOTAL
     COVER BY  1995

FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER   HENT  COVER   TOTAL
     ADDED COST

FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER   NENT  COVER   TOTAL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
:=:====£::
TOTAL
PV<11)
W(5I)
PV(IOI)
:re=r==s==;
658
413
69
9
=c===z=s:
0
0
0
0
==xsr=i
0
0
0
0
r=r==r:rc=rn
658
413
69
9
£===£=S=====:
658
595
404
254
===""=£:
126
118
90
66
s="===:
0
0
0
0
=="-==" — -!
784
713
494
319
==-—•- — — •
0
182
334
245
•-—-—•
126
118
90
66
----- — —
0
0
0
0
" — — —
126
300
424
311
                                                      133

-------
                                             EXHIBIT 6-16C;
                  COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                                AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
                                          (millions 1985 dollars)
        baseline
                             2000
                             added cost
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE  INTERIM
COVER   HEHT  COVER   TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER   MENT COVER   TOTAL
         FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
         COVER   HENT  COVER   TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
658
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

                             658
                               658
         54
712
54
                                                                                        54
PV(1I)
PV(5I)
PV(lOl)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
566
316
157
49
33
21
0
0
0
615
350
178
153
247
149
49
33
21
0
0
0
202
280
170
                                                  134

-------
                                             EXHIBIT 6-16D;

                 COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                                AT EXISTING URANIUM  MILLS BY 2005
                                          (millions 1985 dollars)
ENDING
YEAR
     BASELINE

FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER   KENT  COVER  TOTAL
                                               COVER BY 2005

                                          FINAL REPLACE  INTERIM
                                          COVER   RENT   COVER   TOTAL
                                                                     ADDED COST

                                                                 FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
                                                                 COVER   HENT   COVER  TOTAL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
658
                               658

                                            658
                                                     658
PV(1I)
PV(5»)
PV(IOI)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
539
248
98
0
0
0
0
0
0
539
248
98
126
179
89
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
179
89
                                                    135

-------
                                             EXHIBIT 6-16E;
                  COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                    AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER
                                          (millions 1985 dollars)
        baseline
                             1990+INTERIN
                                     added cost
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE  INTERIM
COVER   HENT  COVER   TOTAL
         FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
        COVER   HENT COVER    TOTAL
                            FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
                            COVER   HENT  COVER   TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
:r===:
32
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
104
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
72
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
104
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
 658
658
658
199
32
                                                                          199
                                                                        32
                                                          231
PV(ll)
PV(5I)
PV(IOX)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
626
515
408
190
162
138
32
32
32
848
710
578
213
446
400
190
162
138
32
32
32
435
640
570
                                              136

-------
                                            EXHIBIT 6-16F;
                  COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                   AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER
                                         (millions 1985 dollars)
        baseline
                             1995+INTERIM
                                                                  added cast
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE  INTERIM
COVER   HENT  COVER   TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER   HENT COVER   TOTAL
                                                                  FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
                                                                  COVER   HENT  COVER   TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
TOTAL
PVW)
PV(5I)
PVOOX)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
tssssssssss
658
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
413
69
9
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
595
404
254
0
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
118
90
66
32
85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
118
113
99
85
32
158
712
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
901
826
593
404
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
182
334
245
0
72
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
118
90
66
32
85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
118
113
99
85
32
158
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ESSSSJS5S
244
413
523
3%
                                                     137

-------
                                            EXHIBIT 6-16G;
                  COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                    AT  EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER
                                         (millions 1985 dollars)
        baseline.
                             2000+INTERIH
                             added cost
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER   HENT  COVER   TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE  INTERIM
COVER   HENT  COVER   TOTAL
FINAL REPLACE  INTERIM
COVER   KENT  COVER   TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
=======
0
0
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
56
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
54
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
56
658
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
                            658
                              658
        54   119
                                                         831
                                                                  54    119
                                                                                     173
PV(lt)
PV(5I)
PV(IOI)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
566
316
157
49
33
21
115
100
86
730
450
264
153
247
149
49
33
21
115
100
86
317
380
256
                                              138

-------
                                              EXHIBIT 6-16H;
                  COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                    AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER
                                           (millions  1985 dollars)
ENDING
YEAR
     BASELINE

FINAL REPLACE INTERIH
COVER    KENT  COVER  TOTAL
          COVER BY 2005, WITH INTERIH COVER

            FINAL REPLACE INTERIH
            COVER   HENT   COVER   TOTAL
                                     ADDED COST

                                FINAL REPLACE INTERIH
                                COVER   HENT   COVER   TOTAL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
                                                 --.—— ^-—---------------- —
TOTAL
  658
658
N(»)
W(5I)
PV(lOl)
413
69
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
413
69
9
658
129     786
                                            539      0     123    662
                                            248      0     105    353
                                             98      0     88    186
  0

126
179
 89
                                                                             0
                                                                             0
                                                                             0
129     129
                                                            123
                                                            105
                                                             88
                                                     249
                                                     283
                                                     177
                                                      139

-------
                                       EXHIBIT 6-161;
              COST OF INTERIM COVER AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
                                   (millions 1985 dollars)
         kistlite
                                INTERIM ONLY
                                                     added  cost
PERIOD
FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
COVER    HENT  COVER   TOTAL
                     FINAL REPLACE  INTERIM
                     COVER    HENT   COVER
                                    TOTAL
                                         FINAL REPLACE INTERIM
                                         COVER    HENT  COVER
                                                   TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
88
439
7
41
83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL

PV(ll)
PV(5J)
PV(lOl)
  658

  413
   69
    9
0
0
0
0
0
0
658

413
 69
  9
658

413
 69
  9
0    143

0    134
0    110
0    90
800

547
179
 99
0
0
0
0    143

0    134
0    110
0    90
143

134
110
 90
                                             140

-------
                           EXHIBIT 6-17A:
    GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
          IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
                  COSTS  FOR EXISTING  PILES
                            COVER DATE-1 WO
I
ft.

t
8DO ~
700 -
eoo -
eoo -
40O -
30O-
200 -
1OO -
0 -
-1OO -
-200 -
-300-
-4OO -
-6OO -1
1




^
7
y
^
'/
'/





rx
Y/ '/ izj\^
%
^/j

y

90O 2005 2020 2035 206O 2O66 2OBO
                          ENDMO YEAR FDR PERIOD
                               141

-------
                       EXHIBIT 6-17B;
GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
       IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
             COSTS  FOR  EXISTING  PILES
                       COVER DATE-1W6
BOO -
too -
600 -
600 -
4OO-
300-
200-
100 -
-1OO -
-200 -
-300-
-400 -




^
rA
xxxxxx
y
\




/
y
/,
to
—BOO -1 | i i | • • | • • | i • | • i | • i | i
19M) 2006 2020 2036 2060 2O66 2080
                     ENOMO YEAR FDR PERIOD
                            142

-------
                            EXHIBIT 6-17C;

    GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF

           IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
                   COSTS  FOR  EXISTING  PILES
                              COVER DATE-2000
s
I
M
ouu -
700 -
600-
600 -
4OO -
300 -
200 -
100 -
0 -
-1OO J
-200 -
-3OO -
-4OO -
_K(1<1 -



M

//
\
//
y/




YA'/ ^YA
/
//

2

1MO      2OO6     2020     2O36      2O6O


                   ENOMO YEAR FOR PERIOD
                                                    2O66
206O
                                    143

-------
                               EXHIBIT 6-17D;

       GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF

              IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
                  COSTS FOR  EXISTING PILES
                             COMER DA1E-2OO6
W
ft.
80O -
700 -
eoo -
600 -
4OO -
300 -
2OO -
too -
-10O -
-200 -
-300 -
-4OO -









0
/
^
^
^
'/







YA'/ ^Y/
1,
YA
\A

        190O      2OO5     2O2O      2O35     2O5O


                           ENDMG YEAR TOR PERIOD
2O65
2O8O
                                   144

-------
                             EXHIBIT 6-17E;


    GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF


 IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER
8
c
u
L.


fc

in
                   COSTS FOR EXISTING  PILES

                           COVER DATE-1990 + INTERIM
ouu -
700 -
600 -
500 -
4OO -
300 -
200 -
1UO ™
o -
-100 -
-200 -
-300 -
-4OO -








X
7\
//
//
//
//
^
/;






r?i
L/J A t/IIX|
I

         1990     2OO5      2020      2O35      2060


                            ENDING YEAR FOR PERIOD
2O65
2080
                              145

-------
                           EXHIBIT 6-17F;
   GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER
                  COSTS FOR EXISTING  PILES
                          COVER DATE-1995 + INTERIM
ouu -
700 -
600 -
^ 600 -
8
• 4OO -
*= 3OO -
£
0 2OO -
£ ,00-
fc o-
M
fe -100-
8 -200-
-3OO -
-4OO -
-600 -








;/
7H /

'/
/
/
/
g
y
/








YA'/ ^YA
t
/
YA

        1990     2005      2020      2035     2O50
                          ENWNO YEAR FOR PERIOD
2065
2080
                                 146

-------
                            EXHIBIT 6-17G;
    GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF
 IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER
u
                   COSTS  FOR  EXISTING PILES
                          COVER bATE-2000 + INTERIM
BOO -
700 -
600 -
6OO -
4OO -
300 -
2DO -
100 -
0 -
-100 -
-200 -
-300 -
-4OO -
win -




\

a/; ^£d
;/
;/
Ld

        1990     2005      2020      2O35     2060
                            ENDMG YEAR FDR PERIOD
206S
2060
                                  147

-------
                           EXHIBIT 6-17H;

   GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF

 IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER
§


1
I
                   COSTS FOR EXISTING  PILES
                          COVER DA7E-200frHNTERIM
ouu -
700-
600 -
600 -
4OO -
300 -
200 -
1OO -
0_
-100 -
-200 -
-300 -
-400 -
-5OO -






^VX _
®
t
y
/,
'/





/
/
/
\A

1990      2OO6     2O20      2O36     2060

                   ENDN6 YEAR FOR PERIOD
                                                   2O66
2O8O
                                 148

-------
s^
I
                             EXHIBIT 6-171;
              GRAPH OF ADDITIONAL COST OF INTERIM COVER
                       AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
                   COSTS  FOR  EXISTING  PILES
                           COVER DATE-INTERIM ONLY
OJU -
190 -
180 -
170 -
160 -
150 -
1*0 -
130 -
120 -
110 -
100 -
90 -
80 -
70 -
60 -
60 -
40 -
30 -
20 -
10 -
O -












1












NXXXXXXXXXN

. i , • • 1 • . 1 • • 1 i . | • • g •
199O 2005 2O20 2035 2060 2065 2060
                           ENDING YEAR FDR PERIOD
                                     149

-------
both the alternative cost stream and the baseline cost stream, with earlier payment of
these costs under the alternative.  As a result, the added cost stream for final cover
contains balancing positive and negative entries.  Costs of final cover may be referred
to as a Type 2 cost of the rule.  A type 2 cost requires no net additional expenditure of
real resources, but the time of expenditure  is affected by the alternative.  The term
"type 2 cost" serves to distinguish these costs from the  cost streams for  replacement
impoundments and interim cover, which are referred  to  as Type  1  costs.  These latter
costs represent additional real resources required under  the alternative which are not
required in the baseline.

The present values of the type 2 cost stream for final cover  measure  the opportunity
cost associated with earlier payment of these  expenses for final cover. The opportunity
cost first increases, going from a 1 percent discount rate to a 5 percent rate.  The
opportunity cost  then  decreases when the discount rate is raised  to 10 percent.   By
comparison, the additional type 1  real resource cost required under the alternatives for
replacement impoundments and interim cover do not occur in the baseline  cost stream.
Both the total cost and present value cost for these type 1 cost items are positive, with
monotonically decreasing present values for larger discount rates.

The disparate behavior of these two categories of costs as a function of  the discount
rate is examined  in Exhibit 6-18, which contains graphs of the present value of a type 1
or type 2 cost payment of $1 at times t = 10  and t = 20 years in the future. The type 1
graphs start at $1 and uniformly decrease along the well-known exponential curve.  The
type 2 cost has a identical avoided cost of -$1 at  a  time 40 years after  the time of
payment. In this  case, the total cost with no discount rate is zero.  At higher discounts,
the  present value first increases then decreases,  with the  maximum present  value
occurring at a real discount rate of less than 5 percent.  At discount rates of greater
than 8 percent, the present value of the avoided cost  payment 40 years later is almost
zero. Hence, at discount rates higher than 8  percent,  the present values of type  1 and
type 2 costs are almost identical.

The distinction between type 1 and type 2 costs of the alternatives serves to separate
the additional real resource costs of this rule from  the opportunity value  of costs for
final stabilization which  are required under  other Federal statutes but which will be
paid earlier as a result of this rule.
                                       150

-------
                       EXHIBIT 6-18;
COMPARISON OF THE PRESENT VALUES OF TYPE 1 AND TYPE 2
    COSTS AS A FUNCTION OF THE REAL DISCOUNT RATE
      PRESENT VALUE OF  TYPES  1  & 2 COSTS
                  REQURE |1 PAYMENT AT t-1O(20) YEARS
*
1
h.
o
u
i
                                   * PV(type 1 co»t)-
                                    PV[C(t)] for C(t)-*1.00
                                   * PV(type 2 ooet)-
                                    PV[C(t)]-PV[C(t-«-dBlta t)]
                                    for defta t—4O y«ar« and
                                    C(t)-C(t+ddto t)-$1.00
                                         16
                                                       20
24
                          DI9COUKT RATE (X)
                           151

-------
The  results presented in Exhibits 6-16 are summarized in Exhibit  6-19.  The summary
table shows the present  value  of the total social costs incurred by  requiring  the
alternative work practices at existing mills.  The present value cost at 5 percent and 10
percent of required expenditures for each cost category and total costs  are shown for
each alternative, where applicable. Alternatives which require final cover before 2005
have costs for replacement capacity,  while the  other  alternatives  do  not  require
replacement of existing disposal capacity under  the assumption that all existing mills
cease operations by the year 2000.

                    6.3.4 Total Benefits Estimates — Existing Mills

The  benefits  of reduced radon-222 emissions resulting from adoption of the  recom-
mended work practices at existing licensed uranium  mills were presented in Exhibit 6-9.
These  benefits occur due to  earlier  final stabilization of existing impoundments  at
current mill sites, and  due  to reduced operating emissions during disposal of  future
tailings generated  at these mills.  The magnitude of the estimated benefits is strongly
affected  by our baseline assumption  that  existing impoundments  will  remain in a
standby status for  40 years  before final stabilization.  A sensitivity analysis using a  20
year baseline assumption is presented at the end of this chapter.

Estimates of  baseline  and avoided fatal lung cancers due to radon-222  emissions  at
existing mills are presented in  Exhibits 6-20A through 6-201 for each alternative date  of
final cover for existing impoundments and for intrim cover only.  The avoided fatalities
are reported in five-year periods for the local area (0-5 kilometers), the local region (5-
80 kilometers), and for the rest of  the  nation.  These estimates were  developed  by
summing  the site-specific health effects  estimates  presented  in Exhibit 6-9, given the
time pattern  of future operations  of existing  mills  implied  by  the  baseline low-
production scenario.

For  alternatives which  require final cover  before  2005, the  early closure of existing
impoundments requires an earlier dry-out period which would not occur in the absence
of this  regulation.  The higher  emissions of these  impoundments while drying cause
negative  benefits  in  the  period preceding  the  date  of  final stabilization.   These
alternatives also require  the  construction  of  additional replacement impoundments,
causing small  negative benefits in the  period after  2045.   These effects  are not
encountered in  the other  alternatives.  The benefits at existing  mills are graphed  in
Exhibits 6-21A through  6-211.
                                          152

-------
                                                            EXHIBIT 6-19;
                                     PRESENT VALUE COSTS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION
                           OF IMPOUNDMENTS AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS, FOR VARIOUS ALTERNATIVES
                                                       (millions of 1985 dollars)
                                                                      Present Value Cost

Alternative
Cover by 1990
With Interim Cover
Cover by 1995
With Interim Cover
Cover by 2000
With Interim Cover
Cover by 2005
With Interim Cover
Interim Cover Only
5 Percent Discount
Type 2a Type lb Type 1
Final
Cover
446
446
334
334
247
247
179
179
NA
Replacement
162
162
90
90
33
33
NA
NA
NA
Interim
NA
32
NA
99
NA
100
NA
105
110
Total
608
640
424
523
280
380
179
283
110
10 Percent Discount
Type 2 Type 1 Type 1
Final
Cover
400
400
245
245
149
149
89
89
NA
Replacement
138
138
66
66
21
21
NA
NA
NA
Interim
NA
32
NA
85
NA
86
NA
88
90
Total -
538
570
311
396
170
256
89
177
90
en
CO
   Type 2 costs represents the time value or the opportunity cost of covering an impoundment sooner than it would have been covered in the
   absence of EPA action.
  JType 1 costs are for replacement of lost capacity at existing impoundments and the noncoverable cost of interim cover.
   Notes:    Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
   NA:      Not applicable.

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 6-20A;
             BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                          AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
                                    (committed fatal cancers)
                                                         Avoided Fatalities
           baseline
                                       1990
PERIOD
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-8OKM  NATION
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-1O
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-ftO
2041-45
2O46-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
O.8
0.2
0.2
O. 2
0.0
O.O
O.O
0.0
0. 0
O.O
0. 0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.7
7-7
7.7
7-7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
1ft. 2
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
12. ft
3.6
3. ft
2. ft
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23. 2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19. ft
5. ft
5.2
ft.l
O. 8
0. 8
0. 8
0.8
O.8
0. 8
0.8
0. 8
-O. 1
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0. 1
0. 1
0.1
0.0
O. O
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0. O
-0.5
6. ft
6.5
6.9
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
O.O
0.0
0.0
O. 0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0. 0
-1.0
12.2
12.7
13.6
1ft. 0
1ft. 0
1ft. 0
1ft. 0
11. 8
3.0
2.8
1.8
-0.1
-O. 1
-O. 1
-O. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-O. 1
-0.1
-1.6
19. ft
19.9
21. ft
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18. ft
ft. 5
ft. 2
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
TOTAL
  8.6   70.1  135.6
21ft.3
  7.1   58.1  112.2
                                                                         177-ft
                                        154

-------
                                   EXHIBIT 6-20B;
            BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                         AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
                               (committed fatal cancers)
                                                        Avoided Fatalities
           baseline
                                      1995
PERIOD
             REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM  NATION
                                    TOTAL
                          REST OF
             0-5KM 5-80KM  NATION
                                                                          TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
l.O
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.7
7.7
7-7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3-4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23. 2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5-4
5.2
4.1
0. 8
0. 8
0.8
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0.0
-0. 1
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0. 8
0. 1
0. 1
0. 1
O. O
0. 0
O. 0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
0. 0
-0.5
6.5
7.0
7.4
7-4
7.4
7-4
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
0. O
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
-1.0
12.7
13- 6
14.0
14.0
14.0
14.0
11. 8
3.0
2.8
1.8
-O. 1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-O. 1
-0. 1
-O. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
0.0
-1.6
20.0
21. 4
22. 3
22. 3
22.3
22. 3
18. 5
4. 5
4.3
3.1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
TOTAL
   8.6  70.1  135.6
214.3
6.3   51.8  100.3
                                                                          158.5
                                          155

-------
                                  EXHIBIT 6-20C;
           BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                        AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
                                                        Avoided Fatalities
           baseline
                                                2000
                        REST  OF
 PERIOD    0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
                      TOTAL
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
8.6  70.1   135.6
                                   214.3
                                     5.6  45-5
                                                               88.4
                                                                        TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
20O6-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-5O
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0. 8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
O.O
0.0
-0.1
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
O.8
0.2
0.1
O.I
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
o.o
-o.4
7.O
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
5.9
1. 3
^ • *^
1. 3
™ • ^/
1. 2
O. O
0.0
O.O
0.0
O. O
o.o
o.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
13.6
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.1
11.9
3. O
• w
2. 8
K. • W
1. 8
-0. 1
-0.1
-O.I
-0.1
— O. 1
W * A
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0. 0
-1.1
21.4
22. 3
22. 3
22. 3
22. 3
18.5
^ w w ^
4C
. 3
A •»
•»• J
39,
. «'
— O 1
w • A
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
— O 1
U • J.
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
                       139.5
                                      156

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 6-2OP;
            BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                          AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
                                (committed fatal cancers)
                                                        Avoided Fatalities
           baseline
                                                 2005
PERIOD
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
             REST  OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
                                                                         TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-ftO
20ftl-ft5
20ft6-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
O. 8
0.9
1. 0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0. 8
0.2
0.2
0.2
O. 0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7-7
7.7
7.7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0. 3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13-3
1ft. 2
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
1ft. 6
12. ft
3.6
3. ft
2. ft
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19. ft
5. ft
5-2
ft.l
O. 8
0.8
O. 8
0. 8
0. 8
0.8
0.8
0. 8
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
O. 8
0. 2
0. 1
0. 1
0.0
O. 0
0. 0
0. 0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
O.O
0.0
7. ft
7. ft
7. ft
7. ft
5.9
l.ft
l.ft
1.3
O. 0
O. 0
0. 0
0. 0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
1ft. 1
1ft. 1
1ft. 1
1ft. 1
11.9
3-1
2.9
1.8
0. 0
O. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
O.O
O. 0
O.O
0.0
0.0
22. ft
22. ft
22. ft
22. ft
18.6
ft. 6
ft. ft
3.3
0.0
O. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL
  8.6   7O.1  135.6
21ft.3
  ft.9  39.5   76.2
                                                                         120. 5
                                          157

-------
                                 EXHIBIT 6-20E;
           BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
              AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER


                                                       Avoided Fatalities
           baseline
                                     1990+INTERIM
PERIOD
TOTAL
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
             REST OF
0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
  8.6  70.1   135.6
214.3
                                                  7.3  59.6   114.7
TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-5O
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1. 0
1.0
0.8
0.2
0.2
0. 2
0. 0
0. 0
O. 0
0. 0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7-7
7.7
7.7
7-7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0. 1
0.8
0.8
0. 8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0. 8
0. 1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
6.4
6.5
6.9
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
1.5
12. 2
12.7
13.6
14.0
14.0
14.0
14. O
11.8
3.0
2.8
1.8
-0.1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
2.6
19.4
19.9
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.4
4.5
4.2
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
                                                             181.6
                                        158

-------
                                EXHIBIT 6-20F;
          BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
             AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER
                                                      Avoided Fatalities
          baseline
                                    1995+INTERIM
PERIOD
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
                                  TOTAL
                         REST OF
             0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
  8.6   70.1  135.6
216.3
7.0  57.1   109-7
                                                                      TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
20/11-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
O.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
O.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
O.O
0.0
0. O
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
5.6
6.8
6.8
7-2
7.7
7-7
7.7
7-7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
0. 8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
O. 0
0.0
0. 0
O.O
O. O
1.5
3.3
6.5
7.0
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
5.9
12.7
13.6
14.0
14. O
14. O
14. 0
11.8
3.0
2.8
1.8
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0. 1
-0.1
4.2
9.6
20.0
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.5
4.5
4.3
3.1
-0. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-O.I
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0. 1
173.8
                                       159

-------
                                  EXHIBIT 6-20G;
           BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
              AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000 WITH INTERIM COVER
                                                       Avoided Fatalities
           baseline
                                     2000+INTERIM
PERIOD
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
             REST OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
                                                                        TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-O5
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1. 0
1.0
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0. 0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7-7
7.7
7-7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
2O.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
O.8
O. 8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.2
0. 1
0.1
0.0
0. 0
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
3.8
3-4
7.0
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
5.9
1.3
1.3
1.2
0. 0
0.0
O. 0
O. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
6.8
6.4
13.6
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.1
11.9
3.0
2.8
1.8
-0.1
-0. 1
-O. 1
-0. 1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
4.2
11. 1
10.2
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18. 5
4.5
4.3
3.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0. 1
-0.1
TOTAL
  8.6  70.1   135.6
214.3
                                                  6.8  54.7   104.7
                                                             166.1
                                        160

-------
                                  EXHIBIT 6-20H:
           BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
               AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER
                              (committed fatal cancers)

                                                       Avoided Fatalities
          baseline
                                     2005+INTERIM
PERIOD
             REST  OF
0-5KM  5-80KM NATION
                                  TOTAL
                          REST OF
             0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
TOTAL
  8.6   70.1   135.6
214.3
6.5  52.5   100.1
                                                                       TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
l.O
1.0
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.6
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.7
7.7
7-7
7.7
6.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
10.8
12.9
13.3
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12.4
3.6
3.4
2.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
17.1
20.5
20.9
22.3
23.2
23.2
23.2
23.2
19.4
5.4
5.2
4.1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
O.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.2
0. 1
0. 1
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
1.5
3.8
3.8
3.9
7.4
7.4
7.4
7-4
5.9
1.4
1.4
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
6.8
7.0
7.6
14.1
14.1
14.1
14.1
11.9
3.1
2.9
1.8
0. 0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.2
11.1
11. 3
12.0
22. 4
22. 4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O
0.0
O.O
0.0
159.1
                                        161

-------
                               EXHIBIT 6-201;
                        BENEFITS OF INTERIM COVER
                        AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
                                                    Avoided Fatalities
           base 1 ine
                                               INTERIM ONLY
PERIOD
O-5KM
      REST  OF
5-80KM NATION
                                  TOTAL
1986-90
1991-95
1996-OO
2001-05
2OO6-10
2011-15
2O 16-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
204 1 -45
2046-50
205 1 -55
2O56-60
2061-65
2O66-70
207 1 -75
2076-80
2081-85
0-7
0.8
0-8
0-9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0-8
0-2
0-2
0-2
O-O
O-O
o.o
o.o
O-O
O-O
O-O
o.o
5-6
6-8
6-8
7-2
7-7
7.7
7-7
7-7
6-2
1-6
1 .6
1.5
0.3
0-3
0-3
0.3
0-3
O-3
0-3
O-3
10-8
12-9
13.3
14-2
14.6
14.6
14.6
14.6
12-4
3.6
3-4
2-4
0 • 5
0-5
0-5
O.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0-5
17-1
20 • 5
2O • 9
22 • 3
23-2
23-2
23-2
23.2
19-4
5-4
5-2
4. 1
0-8
0-8
0-8
0 • 8
O-8
0-8
0.8
0-8
                                                  REST OF
                                     0-5KM 5-80KM NATION
                                                                       TOTAL
0-2
0-5
0-5
0-5
0-6
0-6
0-6
O-6
0.5
0-1
0-1
0-1
0 • 0
0-0
0-0
0-0
0-0
o.o
0-0
0-0
1.5
3.8
3.8
3-9
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
3.8
0.9
0.9
O.8
O • 0
O-O
0-0
o.o
o.o
O-O
o.o
o.o
2.5
6-8
7.0
7.6
8.7
8-7
8.7
8-7
7.4
2.0
1 .8
1-2
0-0
o.o
0-0
0-0
o.o
o.o
0-0
o.o
4.2
11.1
11 .3
12-0
13-9
13-9
13.9
13-9
11 .6
2-9
2-8
2.1
0-0
0-0
o.o
o.o
0-0
o.o
0-0
0-0
                                                               : = = = = = = == = = = =
 TOTAL
   8-6   70-1   135.6
                                   214.3
                                        4.7  37-9
                                                                71-0
                                                       113.6
                                     162

-------
                          EXHIBIT 6-21A;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
                AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990
 i
 8
 e
           BENEFITS  BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=1990
                             FIVE YEAR TOTALS
22 -
2O -
18-
16-
14 -
12 -
10 -
8-
6 -
4 -
2 -



I
1

!
m
vXXXXXXXXXXXX^/X/yXX
R
i
m
v\X\XX\XX\XX\^/////X
ra
v\XXX\XX\XXXXN//////X

I
v ^

1771 >«TIONAL
                                 2036
2050
                                        2065
2080
                               YEAR FDR PERIOD
                               6-80 Km
     1777X 0-6 Km
                                163

-------
                        EXHIBIT 6-21B;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
               AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995
          BENEFITS  BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=1995
                           FWE YEAR TOTALS
24 -
22 -
20 -
18 -
P 16 -
5 14 ~
1 "~
£ 10 -
g -
1 .-
4 -
2 -


I
m
\

///////&
\XX\XX\\\X\XXs
'///
'///////
vXX\X\X\X\X\X\
y/j
'//////,
\X\\X\\\\\XXXN


\
\\\\\\\\\\\N

11$
M
«.I<*I1*I<«I*«II*I«II1
199O 2005 2O2O 2O35 2O60 2O65 20BO
ENDJNO YEAR FOR PERIOD
[771 NATIONAL TXNJ 5-80 Km X777X O-5 Km
                             164

-------
                         EXHIBIT 6-21C;

GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS

                AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2000
 u
  9
  I
           BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER  YEAR=2000
                             FTVE YEAR TOTALS
z* -
22 -

20 -
18 -
16 -
14 -
12 -
10 -
8 -
6 -
4 -
2 -






«*
1
/

v<
, s
X/////KXXXXXXXXXXXX
/
m
\
\
/
m
\(
X////yK\X\\\\\XXXXX
/
m
\
XXXXX/KXXXXXXXXXXXX
/


I
/

'/I ' ^\
/ / /
/ / /
hid
         1990
20O5
                         2020
2O35
2O50
2065
2080
         [771 NATIONAL
              YEAR FOR PERIOD
               5-80 Km
                 0-5 Km
                                 165

-------
                        EXHIBIT 6-2ID;

GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS

                AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005
 8
 fi
 I
          BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=2005
                           FNE YEAR TOTALS
24 -
22 -
20 -

18 -
16 -
14 -
12 -
1O -
8 -

6 -

4 -
2 -
0 -









^

Y///A
NXXXX
/
'/
/
/
\x\xx
X
X
i
^
/
/
/
\
X
X
1
^
/
/

vXXXX
X
X
////A
xxxxx
y
/
/

kxxxx


I
^
/.
/,
/
XXXXN





3n
i • • i • • i • • i • • i • • i • • , .
1900 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080
            WkTONAL
YEAR FOR PERIOD
 6-8O Km
0-6 Km
                              166

-------
                          EXHIBIT 6-2IE;


GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS


        AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1990 WITH INTERIM COVER
I

e
9
      BENEFITS  BY PERIOD-COVER YEAR=1990+INT.

                            FNE YEAR TOTALS
     24
22 -




20 -




16 -




16 -



14 -




12 -




10 -




 8 -




 6 -




 4 -



 2 -



 O



-2





1


        1990
           2005
2020
2035
2060
                                                2065
                                                   2060
       177] NATIONAL
                         YEAR FOR PERIOD

                          6-60 Km
                     VTA 0-6 Km
                               167

-------
                         EXHIBIT 6-2IF;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
       AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 1995 WITH INTERIM COVER
       BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER  YEAR=1995+INT.
                            FIVE YEAR TOTALS
kJ
e
Q
I
22 -
20 -
18 -
16 -
14 -
12 -
10 -
 8 -
 6 -
 4
 2 H
     -2

\


I



        1 990
                2005
            NATIONAL
                  2020     2O35     2050      2065
                        YEAR FOR PERIOD     	
                         6-8O Km         C553 0-5 Km
                                                        2080
                             168

-------
EXHIBIT 6-21G;
GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL
AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY
STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS
2000 WITH INTERIM COVER
BENEFITS BY PERIOD-COVER 2000 +INTERIM
FIVE YEAR TOTALS
22 -
20 -
18 -
g 16 -
\ 14 ~
0
AVOIDED TATAL
J N * 0> 0» O N
I I I 1 1 1




I
li

i •
1990
T77\


I
y//////§.
/

n
^
/
\
n
Y/////J\
/
xx\xxxxxxx\\
m
w//////.
/
xx\xxx\x\x\\
n
1
/
'/


^
^s
\




i I > i 1 i i




y/,

1









1





1
20O5 2020 2O35
1 1 1 • 1 1 • 1 •





2050 2O65 2060
ENDING YEAR FOR PERIOD
V /\ NATIONAL rV\J 6-80 Km
V//A 0-5 Km
     169

-------
                         EXHIBIT 6-21H;


GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF ACHIEVING FINAL STABILIZATION OF IMPOUNDMENTS


       AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS BY 2005 WITH INTERIM COVER
 u
 I

 I
 e
 c
        BENEFITS  BY  PERIOD-COVER  2005  -HNTERIM
                            FIVE YEAR TOTALS
X* -
22 -
20 -
18-
16 -

14 -

12 -
^o -
6 -
6 -
4 -
2 -
a -







1








!
I
k\\\\\\\VX/XH
Fl
O
^
\
\
2
/
^^ss^^sss>
Fl
\
^
\
\
\
/
\
'',
^
o
^

^v
x1
s
^
Fl
x
^
\
\
\
/
/


g
o
O1
X
^s
j





III
19&0
        17~7\
                 2006
2O20
2035
2060
2066
2080
                      YEAR FOR PERIOD
                      6-80 Km
                     U77X 0-6 Km
                               170

-------
               EXHIBIT 6-211;
   GRAPH OF BENEFITS OF INTERIM COVER
        AT EXISTING URANIUM MILLS
BENEFITS  BY  PERIOD-INTERIM  ONLY
                 FNE YEAR TOTALS
z* -
22 -
20 -
18 -
£ 16 -
O
1 «-
1 1 1 1 1 1 1

-------
Exhibit 6-22 summarizes the estimated benefits of  each alternative.  In  this exhibit,
avoided fatalities in the local regional, and national  categories are compared for each
alternative.   Siemificant  reductions  in baseline fatal  cancer incidence  rates  are
achievable by requiring the recommended  work practices at all existing and future
uranium  mills, beginning now or at some  near  time  in  the  future.  The percent of
baseline  fatal cancers avoided by the alternatives ranges  from 53 percent for interim
cover only to 86 percent for cover by 1990 with interim cover.

                            6.4 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

The  estimated costs and benefits of the alternative work practices presented in the
previous  sections  were  calculated  for existing  and future mills based  on a  set  of
assumptions which collectively form the reference case. These assumptions include the
low demand forecast which affects  the number  of mills in operation, the most likely
baseline  future  status of  impoundments at these  mills, the design type  of  future
impoundments (whether above or below grade), the recoverability of interim cover costs
at the time of  final stabilization,  and  the  severity of health effects resulting from
radon-222 emissions from these impoundments.   In this section, the sensitivity  of  the
reference case cost and benefit estimates to a change in  each of these assumptions is
examined.  The total cost estimates presented in Section  6.3 under  the reference case
set of assumptions are sensitive to changes in the number  of operating  mills,  the
assumed  40-year dry standby status  of impoundments in the absence of these r'les,  the
design type assumed  for the impoundment, and the degree of recoverability of interim
cover costs.  (The present value costs  are also sensitive to the assumed discount rate.
All results in the previous section were presented at a 5% and 10% real discount rate.
This convention will be continued  in  the sensitivity analysis.)   The  estimated total
benefits  are sensitive to the number  of  operating mills and the baseline  40-year  dry
standby  period  assumption.   Additionally,  the  estimated benefits  are  sensitive  to
changes in the number of fatal lung  cancers expected from the radon-222 releases. The
sensitivity analyses conducted in this section are summarized in Exhibit 6-23.

The  sensitivity analyses are conducted by varying one assumption, while holding  the
other assumptions at the reference case value. This procedure  measures the sensitivity
of the estimated cost and benefit to changes in  each assumption individually, and does
                                    172

-------
                                              EXHIBIT 6-22;
                         FATALITIES AVOIDED BY ALTERNATIVE WORK PRACTICES
                          AT EXISTING MILLS, BY YEAR OF FINAL STABILIZATION
Alternative
Cover by 1990
With Interim Cover
Cover by 1995
With Interim Cover
Cover by 2000
With Interim Cover
Cover by 2005
With Interim Cover
Interim Cover Only
Baseline Fatalities
0-5 Km
Avoided
Fatalities
7
7
6
7
6
7
5
7
5
9
Percent
Avoided
78%
78%
67%
78%
67%
78%
56%
78%
56%

5-80 Km
Avoided
Fatalities
58
61
52
58
46
55
40
53
38
70
Percent
Avoided
83%
87%
74%
83%
66%
79%
57%
76%
54%

Rest of Nation
Avoided
Fatalities
112
117
100
111
89
106
76
100
71
136
Percent
Avoided
82%
86%
74%
82%
65%
78%
56%
74%
52%

Total
Avoided
Fatalities
177
185
158
176
141
168
121
159
114
214
Percent
Avoided
83%
86%
74%
82%
66%
79%
57%
74%
53%

Note: Detail may not add to totals due to independent rounding.

-------
                      EXHIBIT 6-23;
SUMMARY OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES FOR COSTS AND BENEFITS

Type of Assumption
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Level of production
Dry standby period
before final cover
in baseline
Design type
Recoverability
of interim cover
costs
Health effects
factor
Reference Case
Alternative Assumptions
Costs
Low production (a) High production
40 years (b) 20 years
Below grade (c) Partially below grade
Non-recoverable (d) Recoverable
700 fatal cancers/
million-person-WLM
N/A
Benefits
(a) High production
(b) 20 years
N/A
N/A
(c) 250 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
(d) 1000 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM

-------
not generate  estimates for all possible combinations of values for the entire set of
assumptions.  The latter procedure is unmanageable due to the large number of possible
combinations  which can be constructed  by considering all variations of each assumption
simultaneously.

            6.4.1  Sensitivity of Estimated Costs to Alternative Assumptions

Estimated total costs presented  in  Section  6.3  for existing and future  mills were
developed under the  reference  case set of assumptions  shown  in  Exhibit 6-23.   A
summary  of the estimated total costs for future mills was presented in Exhibit 6-12, for
each alternative work practice.   A summary of estimated total costs at existing mills
was presented in  Exhibit 6-19, for each of nine alternatives.  The sensitivity analysis
presents results for five of these alternatives:  cover by 1990,  cover by 1995, cover by
2005, cover by  2005 with interim cover, and  interim  cover only.  The  summary total
cost tables for new and existing mills are recalculated in this sensitivity  analysisfor
each of these five alternatives, under  each of  the  revised cost assumptions shown in
Exhibit 6-23.

The revised summary total cost tables  for future  mills are shown in Exhibits 6-24A, 6-
24B, 6-24C and 6-24D for the high production, 20-year baseline, partially below grade,
and recoverable interim cost assumptions, respectively. Exhibits 6-25A, 6-25B,  6-25C,
and 6-25D contain the revised summary total cost estimates for  existing mills, under
the same  four variations  of  the reference case assumptions which affect the cost
estimates.

           6.4.2 Sensitivity of Estimated Benefits to Alternative Assumptions

Benefits resulting from the alternative  work  practices were presented  in Section 6.3.
These  estimates were derived using  the reference  case set  of assumptions shown in
Exhibit 6-23.  A summary of estimated  total benefits of the alternative  work practices
at future  mills was presented in Exhibit  6-15. A  summary of estimated total benefits at
existing  mills  was presented in  Exhibit 6-22, for each of nine alternatives.   Recal-
culations  of the estimated total  benefits for  the  sensitivitv  analysis  of  these five
alternatives were based on the  revised assumptions  affecting benefits,  as shown in
Exhibit 6-23.
                                         175

-------
                                                              EXHIBIT 6-24(A):
-a
o>
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS: HIGH PRODUCTION
(millions 1985 dollars)
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
PV(1%)
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
Reference
Case(*)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
0
105
26
3.5
Alternative
Case(**)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
87
16
16
110
39
32
133
55
-39
133
55
-55
118
-700
0
210
44
5.3
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
553
353
22
-13
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-225
118
163
-193
154
222
165
201
268
-134
232
317
-186
235
338
-209
210
-213
1135
695
38
-21
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
1092
681
95
8.3
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-169
167
203
-143
211
281
-99
271
341
-57
312
397
-105
317
418
-126
296
-295
2225
1336
161
12.8
(*) Reference Case: Low Production
(**) Alternative Case: High Production

-------
EXHIBIT 6-24(B):
RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
PV(1%)
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
Single Cell -
Reference
Case(*)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
0
105
26
3.5
ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS:
(millions of 1985 dollars)
- Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal
Alternative
Case(**)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
-47
8
71
-55
8
63
-55
8
63
-212
0
58
19
3.0
(*) Reference Case: 40 years baseline dry
(**) Alternative Case: 20 year baseline dry
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
553
353
22
-13
period
period
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
73
-104
143
82
-115
153
92
-112
147
-23
553
306
15
-14

20 YEAR BASELINE
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
1092
681
95
8.3

Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
107
-71
180
117
-76
190
127
-76
182
-63
1092
634
88
7.9


-------
                                                        EXHIBIT 6-24(C);

                RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS;  PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE DISPOSAL

                                                     (million of 1985 dollars)
oo
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years

Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
Reference
Case(*)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
Alternative
Case(**)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
82
10
10
92
20
20
102
21
-51
92
21
-61
92
-451
Phased
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
Disposal
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-75
86
113
-28
121
135
-6
153
145
12
159
161
-64
165
167
-70
156
-322
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-55
93
105
-37
110
123
-19
135
128
-7
141
141
-83
143
143
-94
133
-445
             TOTAL
             PV(5%)
             PV(10%)
  0

105
 26
3.5
  0

136
 33
4.5
553

353
 22
-13
1010

 677
 105
  13
1092

 681
  95
 8.3
656

520
100
 17
             (*)    Reference Case: Entirely below grade disposal
             (**)   Alternative Case: Partially below grade disposal

-------
                                                           EXHIBIT 6-24(P);

                 RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR FUTURE MILLS; RECOVERABLE INTERIM COVER COSTS

                                                        (millions of 1985 dollars)
<£>


Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
Single Cell -
Reference
Case(*)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
Cover in 5 Years
Alternative
Case(**)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
63
8
8
71
16
16
79
16
-39
71
16
-47
71
-347
Phased
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
Disposal
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-164
95
122
-130
120
136
-116
155
136
-97
152
153
-163
161
163
-168
155
-157
Continuous
Reference
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
Disposal
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
-123
129
147
-102
150
168
-82
186
171
-64
189
189
-124
199
199
-132
191
-197
               TOTAL
               PV(5%)
               PV(10%)
  0

105
 26
3.5
  0

105
 26
3.5
553

353
 22
-13
553

353
 22
-13
               (*)    Reference Case: Non-recovrable interim cover costs
               (**)   Alternative Case: Recoverable interim cover costs
1010

 681
  95
 8.3
1010

 681
  95
 8.3

-------
                                                                           EXHIBIT 6-25(A);

                                             RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS:  HIGH PRODUCTION
oo
(millions 1985 dollars)


Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
PV(1%)
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
Cover
Reference
Case(»)
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
199
403
608
538
by 1990
Alternative
Case(*»)
72
729
72
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-412
-7
-41
-109
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
247
427
621
545
Cover
Reference
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
300
424
311
by 1995
Alternative
Case
0
72
729
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-412
-7
-41
-109
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
175
325
437
318
Cover
Reference
Case
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
179
89
by 2005
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
0
657
0
0
0
-88
-412
-7
-41
-109
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
134
180
90
Cover by^
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
129
249
283
177
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
32
81
2
10
657
0
0
0
-88
-412
-7
-41
-109
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
125
242
282
175
Interim
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
142
134
110
90
Only
Alternative
Case
32
81
2
10
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
142
134
108
88
               (*)    Reference Case:  Low Production
               (•*)   Alternative Case:  High Production

-------
                                                                            EXHIBIT 6-25(B):
                                              RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS;  20-YEAR BASELINE
                                                                           (million 1985 dollars)
00


Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
Cover
Reference
Case(»)
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 1990
Alternative
Case(*»)
72
729
54
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover
Reference
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 1995
Alternative
Case
0
72
712
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-82
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover
Reference
Case
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 2005
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
0
570
-439
-7
-41
-82
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover by
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
570
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Interim
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Only
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
                   TOTAL
                                 199
                                            199
                                                         126
                                                                     126
                                                                                                         129
                                                                                                                      129
                                                                                                                                  142
                                                                                                                                              142
PV(1%) 403 312 300
PV(5%) 608 494 424
PV(10%) 538 489 311
(*) Reference Case: 40 year baseline dry period
(*•) Alternative Case: 20 year baseline dry period
209
310
262


126
179
89


35
64
40


249
283
177


158
169
129


134
110
90


134
110
90



-------
                                                                               EXHIB1T6-25(C):
                                        RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS; PARTIALLY BELOW GRADE DISPOSAL
                                                                             (millions 1985 dollars)
                               Cover by 1990
Cover by 1995
Cover by 2005
Cover by 2005 + Interim
Interim Only
00
to

Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
PV(1%)
PV(5%)
PV(10%)
Reference
Case(»)
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
199
403
608
538
(•) Reference Case:
<*•} Alternative Case:
Alternative
Case(»«)
50
707
37
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
137
344
558
495
Reference
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
300
424
311
Alternative
Case
0
50
694
0
8
8
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
87
264
397
290
Reference
Case
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
179
89
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
0
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
179
89
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
129
249
283
177
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
129
249
283
177
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0

0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
142
134
110
90
Alternative
Case
32
81
2
10
18
0
0
0
0

0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
142
134
108
88
Entirely below grade disposal
Partially below
grade disposal








-------
                                                                            EXHIBIT 6-25(D):
                                      RESULTS OF COST SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS;  RECOVERABLE INTERIM COVER COSTS
                                                                          (millions 1985 dollars)
00


Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
Cover
Reference
Case
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 1990
Alternative
Case
72
730
54
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover
Reference
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 1995
Alternative
Case
0
72
712
0
0
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover
Reference
Case
0
0
0
0
650
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
by 2005
Alternative
Case
0
0
0
0
650
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cover by
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
658
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
741
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
528
0
0
0
-88
-439
-7
-41
-83
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Interim
Reference
Case
32
85
2
10
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Only
Alternative
Case
32
85
2
10
-5
-97
-2
-10
-14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
               TOTAL
                             199
                                        199
                                                     126
                                                                126
                                                                                                    129
                                                                                                                            142
PV(1%) 403 403 300
PV(5%) 608 608 424
PV(10%) 538 538 311
300
424
311
126
179
89
126
179
89
249
283
177
143
235
158
134
110
90
25
70
78
(•) Reference Case: Non-recoverable interim cover costs
(•*) Alternative Case: Recoverable iterim cover costs








-------
The revised summary total benefits tables for future mills are shown in Exhibits 6-26A,
6-16B, 6-26C, and 6-26D for the  high production, 20-year baseline,  and the revised
health-effects factors of 250 and  1000 fatal cancers per million-person-WLM, respec-
tively. Revised total benefits tables for existing mills are presented in Exhibits 6-27A,
6-27B, 6-27C, and 6-27D.
                                      184

-------
                                              EXHIBIT 6-26(A):
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
Single Cell -
Reference
Case(*)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.8
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12.9
16.3
123.1
251.3
Cover in 5 Years
Alternative
Case(**)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.1
4.8
5.5
10.7
12.5
14.0
20.3
22.9
21.0
27.3
29.9
27.3
32.8
242.0
476.0
FUTURE MILLS:
(avoided fatal cancers)
Phased Disposal
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
8.2
10.3
12.7
13.6
13.0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16.9
126.1
268.2
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.3
2.9
3.4
5.2
7.5
8.6
10.9
13.8
15.3
15.6
18.5
19.9
19.7
22.1
249.0
510.4
HIGH PRODUCTION
Continuous
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13.1
14.0
13.7
15.5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
276.3
Disposal
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
2.8
5.1
5.9
9.2
12.5
14.2
18.4
22.7
25.1
26.0
30.2
32.4
32.5
36.0
252.0
527.0
(*)     Reference Case: Low Production
(**)    Alternative Case: High Production

-------
CO
                                                         EXHIBIT 6-26(B);
                        RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY  ANALYSIS AT FUTURE MILLS:  20 YEAR BASELINE
                            Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years
(avoided fatal cancers)
          Phased Disposal
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Period Case(*)
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.8
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12.9
16.3
123.1
251.3
Alternative Reference
Case(**) Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
4.8
5.2
8.5
5.9
6.3
9.2
6.7
7.0
10.0
45.1
125.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
8.2
10.3
12.7
13.6
13.0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16.9
126.1
268.2
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
5.3
7.0
9.0
6.6
8.1
9.9
7.3
9.1
10.6
48.1
142.6
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13.1
14.0
13.7
15.5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
276.3
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
5.6
7.7
9.4
7.0
8.9
10.3
7.8
9.8
11.0
49.1
150.6
(*) Reference Case: 40 year baseline dry period
(**) Alternative Case: 20 year baseline dry period

-------
                                                            EXHIBIT 6-26(C):
oo
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT FUTURE MILLS: 250 FATAL CANCERS/MILLION-PERSON-WLM
Single Cell -
Reference
Period Case(*)
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.5
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12.9
16.3
123.1
251.3
(avoided fatal cancers)
Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal
Alternative
Case(**)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.5
2.8
3.1
4.4
4.6
4.0
5.2
5.5
4.6
5.9
44.3
90.5
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
8.2
10.3
12.7
13.6
13.0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16.9
126.1
268.2
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
1.2
1.3
1.9
2.7
3.0
3.7
4.6
4.9
4.7
5.4
5.7
5.4
5.8
45.4
96.6
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13.1
14.0
13.7
15.5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
276.3
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.7
1.3
1.4
2.2
2.8
3.1
4.0
4.7
5.0
4.9
5.6
5.9
5.7
6.3
45.8
99.5
(*) Reference Case: 700 fatal cancers/million-person- WLM
(**) Alternative Case: 250 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM

-------
                                                      EXHIBIT 6-26(D):
00
oo
RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT FUTURE MILLS: 1000 FATAL
(avoided fatal cancers)
Single Cell - Cover in 5 Years Phased Disposal
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Post-2085
TOTAL
Reference
Case(*)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
3.3
3.7
7.0
7.8
8.5
12.2
12.9
11.1
14.4
15.2
12.9
16.3
123.1
251.3
Alternative
Case(**)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.3
4.7
5.3
10.7
11.2
12.2
17.5
18.5
15.9
20.6
21.7
18.5
23.3
176.0
359.4
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.5
3.2
3.6
5.4
7.5
8.2
10.3
12.7
13.6
13.0
15.1
15.8
15.0
16.9
126.1
268.2
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.2
4.6
5.2
7.7
10.7
11.7
14.7
18.2
19.5
18.6
21.6
22.6
21.5
24.2
180.3
383.5
CANCERS/MILLION-PERSON-WLM
Continuous Disposal
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
r0.3
0.3
2.0
3.5
3.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
11.0
13.1
14.0
13.7
15.5
16.3
15.7
17.4
127.1
276.3
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
2.9
5.0
5.6
8.6
11.2
12.3
15.7
18.7
20.0
19.6
22.2
23.3
22.5
24.9
181.8
395.1
        (*)    Reference Case: 700 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
        (**)   Alternative Case: 1000 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM

-------
                                                                                EXHIBIT 6-27(A);
                                              RESULTS OP BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLSi  HIGH PRODUCTION
                                                                             (avoided fatal cancers)
                               Cover by 1990
Cover by 1995
Cover by 2005
Cover by 2005 + Interim
Interim Only
oo
to
Reference Alternative
Period Case(*) Case(»«)
1986-90 -1.6 -1.
1991-95 19.4 18.
1996-00 19.9 19.
2001-05 21.4 20.
2006-10 22.3 22.
2011-15 22.3 22.
3016-20 22.3 22.
2021-25 22.3 22.
2026-30 18.4 18.
2031-35 4.5 5.
2036-40 4.2 5.
2041-45 3.
2046-50 -0.
2051-55 -0.
2056-60 -0.
2061-65 -0.
2066-70 -0.
2071-75 -0.
2076-80 -0.
2081-85 -0.
TOTAL 177
I 4.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
.4 177
9
7
1
9
2
2
2
2
4
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.9
Reference
Case
0.0
-1.6
20.0
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.5
4.5
4.3
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
158.5
Alternative
Case
0.0
-1.7
19.4
21.1
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.5
5.7
5. 5
4.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
159.7
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
120.5
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.5
5.7
5.5
4.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
123.7
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.3
12.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
159.1
Alternative
Case
4
10
10
11
22
22
22
22
18
5
5
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.2
.5
.7
,
.
'
m
.
.6
.7
.4
.3
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
160.5
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.2
12.0
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
11.6
2.9
2.8
2.1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
113.6
Alternative
Case
4.2
10.5
10.7
11.4
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
11.6
3.6
3.5
2.8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
113.9
              (•)    Reference Case:  Low Production
              (••)   Alternative Case:  High Production

-------
                                                                             EXHIBIT 6-27(B);
                                             RESULTS OP BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLSi 20 YEAR BASELINE
                                                                           (avoided fatal cancers)
                              Cover by 1990
Cover by 1995
Cover by 2005
Cover by 2005 * Interim
Interim Only

-------
                                                                EXHIBIT 6-27(C);

                    RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS; 250 FATAL CANCERS/MILL.ION-PERSON-WLM

                                                              (avoided fatal cancers)
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-40
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-60
2081-65
Cover
Reference
Case(»)
-1.6
19.4
19.9
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.4
4.5
4.2
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
by 1990
Alternative
Case<*«)
-0.6
7.0
7.2
7.7
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.6
1.6
1.5
1.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Cover by
Reference
Case
0.0
-1.6
20.0
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.5
4.5
4.3
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
1995
Alternative
Case
0.0
-0.6
7.2
7.7
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
6.7
1.6
1.6
1.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Cover by
2005
Reference Alternative
Case Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.1
6.7
1.7
1.6
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Cover by
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.3
12.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
1.5
4.0
4.1
4.3
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.1
6.7
1.7
1.6
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Interim
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.2
12.0
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
11.6
2.9
2.8
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Only
Alternative
Case
1.5
4.0
4.0
4.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.1
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
TOTAL
177.4
                         63.9
158.5
58.6
120.5
43.4
                                                  159.1
                                                                                        57.3
(•)    Reference Case: 700 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
(••)   Alternative Case: 250 fatal cancers/million-person-WLM
                                                                                                                   113.6
                                                                                                                               40.7

-------
                                                                              EXHIBIT 6-27(D);
                                 RESULTS OF BENEFITS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AT EXISTING MILLS; 1000 FATAL CANCERS/M1LL1ON-PERSON-WLM
                                                                           (avoided fatal cancers)
CO
to
Period
1986-90
1991-95
1996-00
2001-05
2006-10
2011-15
2016-20
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2041-45
2046-50
2051-55
2056-60
2061-65
2066-70
2071-75
2076-80
2081-85
Cover
Reference
Case<«)
-1.6
19.4
19.9
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.4
4.5
4.2
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
by 1990
Alternative
Case(»»)
-2.3
27.7
28.5
30.6
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
26.3
6.4
6.0
4.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Cover
Reference
Case
0.0
-1.6
20.0
21.4
22.3
22.3
22.3
22.3
18.5
4.5
4.3
3.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
by 1995
Alternative
Case
0.0
-2.3
28.6
30.6
31.9
31.9
31.9
31.9
26.5
6.4
6.2
4.4
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Cover
Reference
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
by 2005
Alternative
Case
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
26.6
6.6
6.3
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Cover by
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.3
12.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
18.6
4.6
4.4
3.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2005 + Interim
Alternative
Case
6.0
'15.9
16.2
17.2
32.0
32.0
32.0
32.0
26.6
6.6
6.3
4.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Interim
Reference
Case
4.2
11.1
11.2
12.0
13.9
13.9
13.9
13.9
11.6
2.9
2.8
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Only
Alternative
Case
6.0
15.9
16.0
17.2
19.9
19.9
19.9
19.9
16.6
4.1
4.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
              TOTAL
                           177.4
253.7
                                                     158.5
                                                                226.7
                                      120.5
172.3
159.1
                          227,5
              (•)    Reference Case: 700 fatal cancers/milllon-person-WLM
              (••)   Alternative Case: 1000 fatal eancers/miUion-person-WLM
                                                                                         113.6
                                                    162.4

-------
                                    CHAPTER 7

                               ECONOMIC IMPACTS

Any regulatory alternative will  increase the cost of domestically produced ILOQ.  The
                                                                         0  O
amount of this impact will depend on the regulation selected.   If it were determined
that the 1984 present value of the additional cost  for future and existing disposal was
$630 million at a 10 percent discount rate, the impact on consumers and investors could
be evaluated.  This  figure is  about 10 percent higher than  any of the cost estimates
presented in Chapter 6.  In this chapter we will evaluate the effect of such a regulatory
cost.  The impact of any of the alternative regulations from Chapter 6 will be smaller
and can be  scaled from the impacts calculated here.  If the  U.S. Uranium Industry
created a annuity payment  to cover the added cost of  this  regulation,  the payments
required per year would be $151  million in each year for 5 years, or $93 million for each
year for 10 years. In this chapter  the impact of these cost increases on investors  in this
industry or purchasers of electricity are presented.

                       7.1  INCREASED PRODUCTION COST

The added production cost resulting from the regulation  may, or may not, be passed on
to the consumers of U0OQ (electric utilities). If the added cost is translated into  higher
                    o  o
prices for U9O0, then the consumers of electric power will ultimately be charged  higher
           O  o
rates,  particularly those customers  of utilities  with  a high  reliance  on  nuclear
generating  capacity.   If  the  U.S. uranium  milling industry is unable to pass  on the
disposal costs internalized by this  regulation as a result of downward pressure on UgOg
prices from  foreign competition or other factors then the added costs will ultimately be
paid by  the investors in firms in the uranium mining and milling industry.

No attempt  is made here to specify the supply and demand curves for U3Og, rather two
extreme situations are considered. The  first case is based on the assumption that the
uranium mills are unable  to pass any of the costs of the regulation on in higher UgOg
prices,  and the second case is based on the assumption that the uranium  mills are able
to recover  all increased cost of the disposal through  increased U«Og prices.  This
presentation is designed to  present two extreme possibilities for which the range of
                                           193

-------
impacts will bracket the likely impacts.  In  fact, some  of these costs will surely find
their way into the rate base of utilities  with  nuclear generating capacity. In addition,
since some owners of these existing impoundments are no longer operating nor do they
ever intend to operate in this industry  in the future,  their cost for disposal must be
borne by the investors in these firms.

It is assumed in the first case that no portion  of the cost of the regulation can be passed
on to the buyer of U,Og.  Selected average  financial statistics  for 1980-84 from the
domestic  uranium industry (see Chapter  2  for  details)  are  presented in Exhibit  7-1.
These data are compared to the  present value cost impacts of the regulation and to the
required annuity payment to am mortize  these costs over five or ten years.  The 1980-84
period  is one in which the industry was contracting and experiencing substantial losses
due to excess production capacity.  The present value cost of the regulation would be
about four times the industry  losses over this  period. It is equal to about 20 percent of
the book value of industry assets and about 40 percent of industry liabilities.  The ten
year annuity payment would require about a 6 percent annual increase in liabilities for
10 years to internalize the environmental control costs.

In the second case it is assumed that the uranium industry is able to recover the entire
increase in tailings disposal cost by charging higher UgOg prices.  This increased input
cost to electric utilities will ultimately be added to the rate  base and paid by electric
power consumers.

The revenue earned by the utility industry for generating 2.4 trillion  kilowatthours of
electricity in 1984 was 142.31 billion dollars.  The 1984 present value of the regulation
(630 million) is less  than 1 percent (.44%) of the U.S. total electric power revenue for
the same year.  Exhibit 7-2 is a presentation  of the relationship of the regulatory cost
to power generation.

The increased cost of total generation reflects a change in the average cost per unit for
the nation.   The regional impacts will vary from this  mean,  based  in part, on the
dependence on nuclear power by region  as shown in Exhibit 7-3.  The ERGOT Region,
for example, with no nuclear generating capacity would probably feel no effect  from
the cost of the regulation in higher electricity prices, and other regions, like MAIN and
SERC, would suffer the greatest affects. As for a specific customer or community, the
                                            194

-------
                                                            EXHIBIT 7-1:

-------
                                    EXHIBIT 7-2:

                       IMPACTS ON ELECTRIC POWER COST
 1984a Generation
 Million Kilowatthours

 Dollars of Utility Revenue Per
 Million Kilowattahours

 Dollars of Present Value of
 Added Cost of Disposal Per
 Million Kilowatthours

 Dollars of Annual Cost of
 5 Year Annuity Per
 Million Kilowatthours

 Dollars of Annual Cost
 of 10 Year Annuity Per
 Million Kilowatthours
    Total
Electric Power
   Industry

    2,416000


      58,903


         261



          63



          38
   Nuclear
Electric Power
     Only

     327,000


   4,351,000


        1926



         462



         284
a
 DOE 85b.

 Note:   Present value cost is assumed  to  be $630 million  1984 dollars.   Five year
         annuity payment is $151 million per year and ten year annuity payment is $93
         million per year.
                                        196

-------
a
 DOE 85b.
                                     EXHIBIT 7-3;
                   ELECTRICAL GENERATION BY NERC REGION 1984
                                               a
   Region

 ECAR
 ERGOT
 MAAC
 MAIN
 MAPP(U.S.)
 NPCC(U.S.)
 SERC
 SPP
 WSCC(U.S.)
Total Generation
    (GWH)
   421,281
   174,958
   166,806
   170,940
   107,346
   189,871
   491,724
   218,646
   464,018
Nuclear Generation
     (GWH)	
     23,175

     34,040
     46,323
     17,127
     44,973
   126,774
     10,973
     24,248
    Percent of
Total From  Nuclear
       5.5

      20.4
      27.1
      16.0
      23.7
      25.8
       5.0
       5.2
                                     197

-------
level  of  impact is  dependent upon the percent of generation from  nuclear  that their
particular electrical utility utilizes.  For example, Commonwealth Edison of Illinois and
Duke  Power of North  Carolina  have two  of the highest percentage  of  power from
nuclear sources, so their customers would be more severely impacted than customers in
other utilities.

                    7.2 REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS

The  Regulatory  Flexibility  Act (RFA) requires regulators  to  determine whether
proposed regulations would have a significant economic impact on a substantial number
of small  businesses or other  small entities.  If such impacts exist,  they  are required to
consider  specific alternative regulatory structures to minimize the small entity impacts
without  compromising the objective  of the statute under which the rule is enacted.
Alternatives specified  for  consideration  by  the   RFA   are  tiering   regulations,
performance rather than design standards, and small firm exemptions.

Most  firms that own  uranium mills  are divisions or  subsidiaries of major  U.S.  and
international corporations (See section 2.3 above). Many  of  these uranium mining  and
milling operations are parts of larger diversified mining firms that are engaged in many
raw  materials  industries  and  uranium  represents   only a small  portion  of  their
operations.   Others are owned by major oil companies  or  by electric utilities  who
engaged  in  vertical integration during the 1960's and 1970's.  In  1977 there were 26
companies operating uranium mills and at the start of 1986  only two were operating.
The future of this industry suggests that only one or two of these existing facilities  will
ever operate again.  It is also expected that  the high level of financial risk and capital
requirements will continue to attract  only large diversified firms and electric utilities
to this industry. Thus, no significant impact on small businesses  is expected.
                                      198

-------
                                  REFERENCES
DOE 85a    Department of Energy, Domestic Uranium  Mining  and Milling Industry;
            1984 Viability Assessment.  DOE/EIS-0477, September 1985.

DOE 85b    Department of  Energy, Electric Power Annual 1984.  DOE/EIA-0348(84),
            August 1985.
                                    199
                          986-151-096:1*251*6

-------