Characterization .Report

    Analysis  of  Gasohol Fleet Data  to
        Characterize  the Impact of
          Gasohol on  Tailpipe and
           Evaporative  Emissions
                December 1978
           Technical Support Branch
      Mobile Source Enforcement Division
Office of Mobile Source and Noise Enforcement
    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

-------
Summary



     This paper presents an analysis of the data which was
                                 *


developed in consideration of the request from "Gas Plus*



of Nebraska and the Illinois Department of Agriculture for a



waiver of the limitation and prohibition from use of up to



10% ethanol in unleaded fuel.  The document comprises a



description of the test program that generated the data, the

                                                          vv

analyses of the data, and a discussion of results of that



analysis.
                                 «


     Statistical analyses were conducted on the three



regulated tailpipe emissions components (hydrocarbons,



oxides of nitrogen, and carbon monoxide) measured in the



Federal Test Procedure  (FTP) and on evaporative emissions



measured in the Sealed Housing for Evaporative Determination



(SHED) procedure.



     Due to variations  in testing conditions and procedures,



some of the data made available  to EPA were not included  in



the analysis.  In  addition, data on fuel economy, and



unregulated pollutants, are not  relevant to the waiver


                                                  */
request and hence,  summarization  is omitted here. —



     A procedure for review was  applied to the projected



50,000 mile emissions levels  for regulated tailpipe and

                                                       •


evaporative emissions of  each vehicle  by catalyst technology,
 —'  These data will be reported separately

-------
                          -2-


This analysis reveals that it cannot be concluded with
                                  X"
sufficiently high confidence that a 10% ethanol - 90%

gasoline mixture, "Gasohol", will not cause or contribute
                         V       ' '  -
to the failure of more -than 20% of the vehicle fleet
                                           \
represented by the test  vehicles to meet the Federal

emissions standards.

Introduction                                              v.

     Section 211(f)(3) of the Clean Air Act (Act) prohibits,
                                 . •
after September  15, 1978, the distribution in commerce of

any fuel or fuel additive not substantially similar to any

fuel or fuel additive utilized  in the certification of any

model year 1975, or subsequent  model year, vehicle or

engine.  Gasohol is such a fuel.  However, the Administrator

may waive this prohibition if he  determines that  the fuel or

fuel additive, and the emission products thereof, will not

cause or contribute to a failure  of  any emission  control

device or system (over the useful  life of  any vehicle in

which such a device or system is  used) to  meet  its certified

emission standards.

     On June  19, 1978, EPA received  such  a waiver application

from  "Gas Plus"  Inc.  of  Nebraska  and the  Illinois Department

of Agriculture.

-------
                          -3-



     A public hearing on the Gasohol waiver request was held


on September 6, 1978.  At that time, the Ford Motor Company
                                                   --,
presented data which indicated a potential problem with
                                                 
-------
                          -4-


Testing Programs

     The testing programs which provided Gasohol data for
                                                    *
EPA's consideration are described below:

1)  EPA - DOE Gasohol program

     Four emissions test laboratories participated in

a twenty-six vehicle testing program to measure the emis-

sions effect of the addition of 10% ethanol to unleaded

fuel.  EPA provided the following fuels—  to each laboratory:

      1.  Indolene - the standard emissions test fuel

           (40 CFR 86.113-78)

      2.  Indolene mixed with  10% ethanol

      3.  A commercially available  summer grade unleaded

          gasoline

      4.  The above summer  grade gasoline mixed with 10% ethanol

      5.  A gasoline blended with 10% ethanol with Reid

          vapor pressure and volatility characteristics

          similar to Fuel  3.

     The  standard 1978  Federal Test Procedure  (FTP) for

tailpipe  emissions was  followed at  each laboratory.
                                                       *
     The  specific characteristics of  each program  are

listed below:
—'   The fuels specifications are shown in Table 9 and
     Figure 2.

-------
                      -5-
1)  The EPA MVEL tested eleven vehicles; seven with

    oxidation catalysts and four with three-way
                                               •
    catalysts.  FTP'S including the SHED procedure

    were performed on each vehicle.  Some replicate

    tests were conducted as well. Three vehicles tested

    had been included in the earlier Ford Gasohol

    testing program.  Because testing began before the
                                                    X.
    arrival of the fuels specifically procured for

    this program, specification indolene was used

    from laboratory  supplies until the program fuels

    arrived.

2)  The EPA laboratory at the Research Triangle

    Park tested  two  oxidation catalyst vehicles.

    FTP's, including the SHED procedure,  (including

    alcohol measurements) were performed on each
                                       i
    vehicle for  all  five fuels.   Data on evaporative

    emissions  for the 1977 vehicle were not included

    in the analyses  of Gasohol data  because the

    vehicle model year predated the  1978 SHED  standards,

3)  The Department of Energy Research Laboratory

    in Bartlesville, Oklahoma  tested ten vehicles,  six

-------
                           -6-
          with oxidation catalysts and four with three-way
          catalysts.  The FTP performed included the SHED
          procedure on both tailpipe and evaporative emissions
          (including alcohol measurements).

      4)  The Southwest Research Institute, under contract
          to EPA, tested two oxidation catalyst vehicles
          and one three-way catalyst vehicle on the full
          FTP, including the SHED procedure.  Replicate
          tests were performed on fuels 3, 4, and 5 only.
Other sources
      1)  The Ford Motor Company presented test results
          on nine vehicles, five with oxidation catalysts
          and four with three-way catalysts, tested on
          specification indolene and indolene 4- 10% ethanol.
          The 1978 FTP, including the SHED portion, was
          followed for each vehicle.  Additional FTP and SHED
          tests were performed on two of  these vehicles
  -       using EPA fuels  1, 3, and 5.

      2)  General Motors Corporation tested  one three-way
          catalyst vehicle on  its own indolene and  indolene

-------
                        -7-


      with 10% ethanol fuels,  following the 1975 .FTP.

      No evaporative emissions results were provided.—'


  3)   The EPA Mobile Emissions Test Facility and the

      EG&G Laboratory under contract to EPA tested
                                        \     ~*
      three oxidation catalyst vehicles on indolene and

      indolene with 10% ethanol. A modified version of

      the 1978 FTP which did not include evaporative v

      emissions testing was used by the EG&G Laboratory.

      The 1977 FTP (non-evaporative) was performed
      by the Mobile Emissions Test Facility.

  4)   The DOE Bartlesville Laboratory in an earlier

      alcohol fuels program tested two oxidation

      catalyst and two three-way catalyst vehicles

      on indolene and indolene with 10% ethanol added.

      Of these, the two three-way catalyst vehicles

      were retested in the EPA-DOE program and data

      from both test programs were used in the analysis.
Aaditional emission tests by GM on 2 vehicles using
specification indolene, indolene + 10% ethanol and
ad}usted RVP indolene + 10% ethanol were received to
late to incorporate into this analysis.  Directionally,
these data show the same effect reported herein and
will be incorporated into this report.

-------
                          -8-


      5)  Prior to the September 6 hearing, Automotive
                                  ^-
          Testing Laboratories, Denver, Colorado^completed

          a high-altitude alcohol fuels testing program on

          an EPA contract.  Ten vehicles were tested using

          the 1975 FTP on indolene and indolene with 10%

          ethanol. Because the high altitude is expected to

          effect emission levels, results of the program  v

          were reviewed but not included in the analysis of
                                  t
                                 •
          Gasohol data.

    For the purposes of the analysis of the Gasohol data,

the specification indolene and indolene with ethanol fuels

were considered to be  sufficiently similar to be compared

without distinction in this analysis.

     The set of vehicles, then, whose  emissions values were

analyzed consisted of  26 oxidation catalyst and  12 three-way

catalyst vehicles.  Of these,  14 oxidation catalyst and 8

three-way catalyst vehicles were tested on all five fuels on
              i
both the exhaust and evaporative emissions portions of the

Federal Test Procedure.  Appendix  1  contains a list of each

test vehicle whose emissions  were  included in  the Gasohol data

base.

     For many vehicles, repetitive tests were  run on  each

fuel to establish more reliable  estimates  of the average

-------
                      -9-
emissions performance for the vehicle.  For some vehicles
more repetative tests were run on the exhaust emissions
portion than on the evaporative emissions portion of the
                                                    • •
test.
Summarization of T)ata
     The average emission level for each pollutant for
each vehicle and test fuel is shown in Appendix 2.  The
list is separated by catalyst technology (oxidation catalyst
vehicles and three-way  catalyst vehicles). It should be
noted that the summaries for vehicles which were tested by two
laboratories include data from both laboratories.
     Overall average emission levels by fuel and
pollutant were computed for each catalyst technology
from the vehicle averages.  They appear in Tables 1 and 2.
     Comparision of average results of fuels 1 and 2
and of fuels 3 and 4 indicates that average CO values
decreased while average NOx and evaporative emissions rose
with the use of alcohol in the fuel for both technology
groups.  The results on exhaust hydrocarbons (HC) were
mixed, however.  Average HC emissions values decreased with
the use of both alcohol fuels  (fuels  2 and 4} for oxidation
catalyst vehicles  but  decreased between fuels 1  and 2 and
increased between  fuels 3  and  4 for three-way catalyst*
vehicles.

-------
                      -10-


     The significance of each of the above observations

was tested using one-sided sign tests, comparing a base

fuel and an alcohol fuel.  The base fuel/alcohol fuel
                                  f
                                 *
pairs considered were:

       a)'  Fuel 1  (base) vs. Fuel 2 (alcohol)

       b)  Fuel 3  (base) vs. Fuel A (alcohol)

In each test for each pollutant the null hypothesis was

that the median emission level for that pollutant was
                                                          v
the same for both  base  and alcohol fuels.  The alternative

hypothesis for both HC  and CD was that the median emissions
                                  •
                                  *
level for the alcohol fuel was lower than that of the
                                      *
base fuel.  The alternative hypothesis for NOx and evaporative

emissions was that the  median level was higher for the

alcohol fuel than  that  of the base fuel.

     Emissions levels on each base fuel were  compared to

emissions levels on  its alcohol  fuel counterpart for each

vehicle tested on  both  fuels.  From this comparison, the

number of vehicles which manifested an increase

in average emissions between  fuels was obtained.

     If there were no real difference in any  emissions

level attributable to a difference in fuels,  the expected

proportion of  instances in which an increase  between fuels

would occur  for  any  pollutant would be 0.5.   A

-------
                         -11-




large proportion of observed increases in emission levels



for a pollutant would indicate an adverse effect of the



alcohol fuel.  By a similar argument, a small proportion of
                                                     •


increases in emission levels between fuels for a pollutant



would indicate a decrease in the emissions of the alcohol fuel,



Tables 3 and 4 summarize the results of these tests by



catalyst technology comparing fuels 1 and 2 and fuels 3 and



4.  As predicted by the comparision of average emissions

                                                         V

for fuels 1 and 2, HC and CO emissions decreased signifi-



cantly and NOx and evaporative looses increased significantly



for oxidation catalyst vehicles.



     For three-way catalyst vehicles, the comparison of



fuels 1 and 2 showed a significant decrease in CO and
                                                        •


a significant increase in evaporative emissions.  The



results of the comparision of fuels 3 and 4 were similar but



indicated only significant decreases  in CO and increases in



evaporative emissions  for both catalyst technology groups.—



     Though emission levels for  pollutants differed



significantly between  base fuels and  their alcohol mixture



counterparts, the  difference  between  emissions levels  for



fuels 1 and 3 was  as remarkable.   Table 5 displays the
—'  Evaporative emissions are unaffected by exhaust


    (catalyst)  technology.

-------
                   -12-




results of sign tests performed comparing emissions data


derived using these two fuels.  These tests indicated highly


significant increases in emissions levels for all pollutants


and evaporative losses for oxidation catalyst vehicles and
                                              ^^  r  ^jf  —

highly significant increases  in NOx emissions in three-way
                                            n     *•

catalyst vehicles in going from fuel 1 to fuel 3.


     Estimates of the ratio of average emission levels


for the following fuel combinations were calculated to    s


assess the relative directional (Table 6):
                                  *

       .Fuel  2 and Fuel 1

       .Fuel  4 and Fuel 3

       .Fuel  3 and Fuel 1


Each fuel to  fuel ratio was computed using  overall averages


for vehicles  on which both fuels  were tested.


Method of Review


     A statistical method of  review was  established to


determine whether the applicant had demonstrated that Gasohol


would not cause or contribute to  the failure  of  any vehicle to


meet emission standards during  its useful  life.  This


method of review was  designed as  a one-sided  sign  test


and evaluates compliance  using  projected


50,000 mile  emissions levels.  The statistical  method


assumes  that  the difference  in emission  levels  between  two

-------
                         -13-


fuels for a vehicle either remains constant or becomes
                                  x-
larger over the useful life of the vehicle.

     Because 50,000 mile test data were not available for

any test vehicle, projected 50,000 mile emission levels for

each nondevelopmental test vehicle were obtained by using

average back-to-back FTP results  and 50,000 mile certifi-

cation data.

     The sign test portion of the method of review was
                                  • *
designed to assure with 90% confidence that the sign test

would be failed if 20% or more of the vehicle fleet represented

by the sample fleet were to fail  to meet Federal emission

standards for the fuel comparison considered.

     Figure 1 depicts the risk of failing  the method of

review versus the true fleet failure rate  for various

sample sizes. It  is clear from the figure  that for small

sample sizes the risk of failing  the criterion is high for

low fleet failure rates but decreases when sample fleet size

is increased.

     The method of review was evaluated for the following

three fuel  comparisons:

                  a) Fuel 1 with  Fuel 2

                  b) Fuel 3 with  Fuel 4

                  c) Fuel 1 with  Fuel 3

-------
                      -14-
The first two comparisons were selected to assess the effect

of ethanol as a fuel additive; the third was chosen to assess

the effect of the  commercially available summer grade gasoline
                                                    *

fuel compared to the indolene test fuel.
          i
     Statistical procedures for each fuel comparison were
                                             >*«.   _^
applied as follows:  50,000 mile emissions levels for each

test vehicle were  obtained from certification records for

                 */
the test vehicle.—' Projected 50,000 mile emissions levels
                                                          v

for a test vehicle were  computed by adding the difference

between average emission levels for the two fuels to its

50,000 mile certification values.  These projected values

were then compared to  the emission standards. A failure was

scored when the projected value of any pollutant  exceeded
                                                       •

the emission standard  for the vehicle. Table 7 shows the

results of this analysis.  Total failures for each pollutant

were then compared to  the critical values computed for the

corresponding  number of  observations.  If the number of

failures  equalled  or exceeded the  critical value  (c) for  any

pollutant, the  criterion was  failed.  Table 8 lists critical

values by sample  size  (total  number of observations)

for the standard  of review criterion.
 */
 —'   The  certification test results used were from the '
     emission data vehicle of the same description as
     the  test vehicles.

-------
                        -15-


     Application of the method of review was done separately

by catalyst technology.   Evaporative emissions results were

examined in the aggregate.
                                     f  s*
     Evaluation of the scores summarized in Table 7 using

critical values In Table  8  resulted  in the failure -of the
                                       % —-•— —ru»  — »s.i»j^-. •-»
                                            —  - ^<-*-o '~
method of review by fuels containing alcohol compared to

indolene and  the summer  grade commercial fuel compared to

indolene.
                                                         t.
     Specifically, comparison of  fuels 1 and 2 resulted in

a failure of  the  criteria on evaporative losses  across both

catalyst technologies, on NOx for oxidation catalyst vehicles,
                                   V
and on HC for three-way  catalyst  vehicles.  Comparison of

fuels 3 and 4 yielded the same results, with the exception

that failures occurred for  both HC  and CO for  three-way

vehicles.  The  fuel  1 to fuel 3  comparison, however, resulted
                     *

in the largest  number of projected  failures.   In that

instance, the criteria was  failed on evaporative

emissions for both  technologies,  on all  three  tailpipe

emissions for oxidation catalyst  vehicles,  and on HC  for

three-way catalyst  vehicles.

Conclusions

     The  statistical analyses  performed  on the Gasohol  data

indicate  that the use of ethanol in 10%  concentration in

-------
                         -16-

unleaded fuel has a statistically significant, adverse
effect on emissions.  Carbon monoxide emissions decrease and
evaporative emissions increase consistently both for oxidation
catalyst and three-way catalyst vehicles.  Furthermore,
application of the method of review shows that the data
fails to demonstrate that the use of 10% ethanol as a fuel
additive will not cause or contribute to the failure of any
vehicles to meet emission standards.

-------
 Table 1 Average Emissions Levels by Pollutant by Fuel for
            Oxidation Catalyst Vehicles
    ALL PROGRAMS  -  OX CATALYSTS
    OVERALL  AVERAGES
    FUEL *  "-      1
    VARIANCE
    NO OSS1

    OVERALL  AVERAGES
    FUEL           2
    VARIANCE
    NO DBS1

    OVERALL  AVERAGES
    FUEL           3
    VARIANCE '
    NO OSS1'

    OVERALL  AVERAGES
    FUEL           4
    VARIANCE
    NO DBS1"

    OVERALL  AVERAGES
    FUEL           5
    VARIANCE
    NO DBS 1"
-  HC2 .  CO
0.795  8.771
0.485 41.754
  24.    24.

   HC     CO
0.665  5.326
0.268 13.866
  23.  * 23.

   HC   .  CO
0.826  9.953
0,387 49.693
  19,    19.

   HC     CO
0,653  6,705
0.102 13.985
  17.    '17.

   HC     CO
0.808  7.307
0.273 29.45
-------
Table 2 Average Emissions Levels by Pollutant by Fuel for
       All Three-way Catalyst Vehicles
   ALL  PROGRAMS • 3-WAY CATALYSTS
   OVERALL AVERAGES
   FUEL          1
   VARIANCE
   NO tJBS1

   OVERALL AVERAGES
   FUEL "         2
   VARIANCE
   NO OBS1

   OVERALL AVERAGES
   FUEL *         3
   VARIANCE
   NO OSS1"

   OVERALL AVERAGES
   FUEL          4
   VARIANCE
   NO 08S1

   OVERALL AVERAGES
   FUEL          5
   VARIANCE
   NO OBS1
   HC-*    CO    NOX*4  EVAPJ
0.338  4.864  0,666  2*194
0.011 12.426 -0,093  0.776
  11.    11.    11.     e»

   HC     CO    NOX   EVAP
0.317  3.919  0.724  3..219'
0.008  6,005  0,099  U385-
  11.    11.    11*     6*
   HC     CO
0.370  5.696
0.027 16.040
   9.     9.

   HC     CO
0.413  5.269
0,023 13.909
   
-------
                                   TABLE 3

        Sign Test Statistics 'and Confidence Levels For Comparison of
       Median Emission Levels of Vehicles Tested on Fuel 1 and Fuel 2
Oxidation Catalyst
    Vehicles

1) Increases/Observations
2) Confidence Level of
   Increase/Decrease
  HC
7/23
95.34
 CO
3/23
99.98
 (D)
 NOr
17/23
98.27
 (I)
 EVA?
14/17
99.36
 (I)
Three—Way Catalyst
    Vehicles

1) Increases /Observations
2) Confidence Level  of
   Increase/Decrease
  HC
4/11
72.56
 (D)
 CO
2/11
96.73
 tt>)
 NOx
8/11
88.67
 (I)
    ^
8/8
99.61
 (I)
                                    TABLE  4

                                                                       ••
         Sign Test  Statistics and Confidence Levels For Comparison of
        Median  Emissions Levels of Vehicles  Tested  on Fuel 3 and Fuel 4
Oxidation  Catalyst
    Vehicles

1) Increases/Observations
2) Confidence  Level of
   Increase/Deerease
    HC
 6/17
 83.38
   (D)
    CO
   1/17
   99.99
    (D)
   NOz
   10/17
   •68.55
    (I)
Three-Way  Catalyst
    Vehicles

1)  Increases/Observations
2)  Confidence Level of
    Increase/Decrease
    HC
   3/9
  74.61
   (D)
    CO
    2/9
   91.02
    (D)
   NChc
    4/9
   50.00
    (I)
    EVA?
    7/8
   96.48
    (I)

-------
                                   TABLE 5
         Sign Test Statistics and Confidence Levels For Comparison of
        Median Emissions Levels of Vehicles Tested on Fuel 1 and Fuel 3
Oxidation Catalyst
    Vehicles

1) Increases/Observations
2) Confidence Level of
   Increase/Decrease
        •
Three-Way Catalyst •
    Vehicles

1) Increases/Observations
2) Confidence Level of
   Increase/Decrease
                           CO
                            CO
                      TJOx
                      SOx
                     EVA?
13/17
97.55
(I)
13/17
97.55
(I)
15/17
99.88
CD
13/16
98.94
(I)
                     EVAP
5/8
63.67
(I) '
4/8
36.33
(I)
7/8
96.48
(I)
5/7
77.34
(I)
                                    TABLE  6

            Estimated Ratio of Hean Emissions Levels for Vehicles
               Operated on Different Fuels by Catalyst Technology
                        by Pollutant by Fuel Comoanson
Technology
'uel/Fuel
HC
CO
EVA?
Oxidation Catalyst


Three-Way Catalyst


2/1
4/3
3/1
2/1
4/3
3/1
0.835
0.768
1.083
0.937
1.116
1.101
0.633
0.632
1.115
0.806
0.925
1.066
1.120
1.105
1.151
1.087
1.086
1.109
1.521
1.603
1.507
1.467
1.426
1.268

-------
                                        Table 7

                               Method of Review Analysis

                                   (f failures/total I)
                                                   •


                                COMPARING FUELS 1 & 2
                                                             HC
CO
NOx
EVAP
All
All
All
Programs
Programs
Programs
(oxidation & three-way)
(oxidation catalysts only)
(three-way catalysts only)
1/28
0/22
[1/6]
0/28
0/22
0/6
2/28
[2/22]
0/6
13/21
[3/17
0/4
COMPARING FUELS 364
All
AU
All
Programs
Programs
Programs
(oxidation & three-way)
(oxidation catalysts only)
(three-way catalysts only)
1/23
0/17
H/6]
1/23
0/17
H/6]
[3/23]
[3/17]
0/6
[5/21
15/16
0/5
COMPARING FUELS 1 & 3
i
All
All
All
Programs
Programs
Programs
(oxidation & three-way)
(oxidation catalysts only)
(three-way catalysts only)
[4/22J
[2/17]
2/5
W/22}
[4/17]
0/5
14/22J
[4/17]
0/5
[5/20
[5/16
0/4
Brackets indicate failure with respect to the method of review

-------
Table 8  Sample Sizes and Critical Values for Application
         of the Standard of Review with Probability of
         Failure Equal to 90% for a Fleet Failure Rate  of 20%
         Sanple Size      Critical Value (c)    Exact Risk of Failure
                                               fox Fleet Failure Rate
                                                    of .20

             10                   1 ~                ,893
             11                   1                  .914'
             12                   1                  .931
             13                   1                  .945
             14                   1                  .956
             15                   1                  .965
             16                   2                  '.859
             17                   2                  .882
             18                   2                  .901-
             19                   2                  .917
             20                   2                  .931
             21                   2                  .942
             22                   2                  .952
             23                   3                  .867
             24                   3                  .886
             25                   3                  .902
             26                   3                  .916
             27                   3                  .928
             28                   3                  .939
             29                   3                  .948
             30                   4                  .877
             31                   4                  .893
             32                   4                  .907
             33                   4                  .919
             34                   4                  .930
             35                   4                  .939

             40                   5                  .924

             45                   6                  .910

             50                   7                  .897

            100                  16                  .920

-------
TABLE 9 - FUEL  SPECIFICATIONS  FOR GASOHOI, TESTING  PROGRAM
Fuel
1
2
3

4

5
* •
1978 DOC
Winter Avg

1977 MVMA
Winter Avg
1975 MVMA
Summer Avg
1978 DOE
Summer Avg

RON
96.5
90.9
92.3

94.8

96.4
V
92.9


92.6

92.1

92.9
Key
MON RVP
88.
90.
82.

84.

00.

03.


84.2

84.1

83.9
to
7 9.0
1 9.6
6 10.0

2 10.9

6 10.0
•
9 12.5
I

12.2

10.1

9.0
Fuels
% 160 °F
20
32
25

42

30

36


36

30

27

Aromatics
20.5
25.7
29.0

20.9

34.6




29.5

20.9

31.2

Olefins Saturates
0.4 71.1
0.6 73.7
17.2 53.0
it
16i6 ''54.5
i
17.6 57.8




0.0 62.6
•
5.8 . 65.2
• t
6.0 62iB
*

S. G.
.7397
.7440
.7487

.7526

.7686

.7354


.7356

.7402
. '
.7416

            1 - Indolene Type
            2 - Indolene Type/10% Ethanol mix
            3 - llowell Northern Summer Grade
            4 - Fuel 3/10% Ethnnol mix
            5 - Dlended Summer Grade and 10% (volume),Bthanol to resemble
                Fuel 3 with respect to IWP and distillation curve.

-------
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      id
N=aoo
C=»16
                                                                          Legend

                                                                N  »  Sample Size
                                                                C  «  Critical Value (fail standard of  review
                                                                    if C or more out of N observations
                                                                    fail certification standards at projected
                                                                    50,000 mile emissions levels)
-t
                                     f-
                                        -I-
                          -I-
•f-
          ca.tzi      at. i      ta.a     ta.ra      ra.H      ca.s      ca.s     c*.*7
                            Fleet Proportion Failing Certification Standatds
                                                                             GJ.Q
    Figure  1   Probability of Failing the Standard of Review for Different Sample Slees  and Critical
               Values  versus the True Proportion in  the  Fleet Failing .Certification Standards

-------
                         FUELS FOR GASOHOL
                           TEST PROGRAM
                       DISTILLATION CORVES
  450 4-
  400*  4-
  350  -L
  300  4-
e:
  25°
Ca
s
u
&*  .
  200
  150  f
  100
    u
    e
    I
IBP   10
                   20
                          "PERCENT EVAPORATED

-------
                              Test Vehicle Description
                                      Appendix 1
                Model    Vehicle
Source          Year       ID

Ann Arbor1      1979     NOOOl
Ann Arbor1      1978     N0002
Ann Arbor1      1978     N0003
Ann Arbor       1979     N0004
Ann Arbor       1978     N0005
Ann Arbor       1970     N0006
Ann Arbor       1978     N0007
Ann Arbor       1977     N0008
Ann Arbor       1978     N0009
Ann Arbor       1979     NOOIO
Ann Arbor       1978     N0011
RTF2            1977     RMUST
RTF             1979     RLTDI
Bartlesville    1976     BOXC1
Dartlesville    1977     DOXC2
Bartlesville    1977     BOOOl
Bartlesville    1978     B0002
Bartlesville    1978     B0003
Bartlesville    1978     B0004
Bartlesville    1978     B0005
Bartlesville    1978     B0006
Bartlesville    1978     B0007
Bartlesville    1970     B0008
Bartlesville    1978     B0009
Bartlesville    1978     B0010
SWRIJ           1978     SSAAB
SWRI            1978     SCHEU
SWRI            1978     SMUST
\\
 Make/Model

Ford Thunderbird
Ford Bobcat
Ford Maverick
Ford Pinto
Pontiac Sunbird
Chrysler Omni
Plymouth Salon
Chevrolet Impala
Buick Regal I
Toyota Corolla
Buick Regal II
Ford Mustang
Ford LTD II
Chevrolet Impala
Pontiac Astre
Volvo 242
Ford Pinto
AMC Gremlin
Buick Century
Oldsmobile Delta
Ford Futura
Buick Skyhawk
Pontiac Sunbird
Plymouth Salon
Plymouth Horizon
Saab 99GL
Chevrolet Malibu
Ford Mustang
                    88
  Cal./Fed.
Configuration•

 Developmental
 California
 Federal
 Federal
 California
 Federal
 Federal
 Federal
 Federal
 Federal
 California
 Federal
 Federal
 Federal
 Federal
 California
 California
 Federal
 Federal ' j '.
 Federal ,' ».,
 Federal . "'
 California
 California
 Federal  , {>
 Federal
 California
 California
 Federal
 Catalyst

 Three-way
 Three-way
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Three-way
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Three-way
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Three-way
 Three-way
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
; Three-way
, Three-way
 Oxidation
 Oxidation
 Three-way
 Oxidation
 Oxidation

-------
                             Test Vehicle Description (cont.)
                                                               Appendix  1

Source
*
Ford
Ford1
Ford
Ford
Ford
Ford .
Ford1
Ford
Ford1
EG&G
EGfiG
EG&G
General Motors
Model
Year

1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1978
1979
1978
1978
1978
1978
Vehicle
ID
i
F0001
F0002
F0003
F0004
F0005
F0006
F0007
F0008
F0009
EMERC
EAMCO
ETOYO
GSUNB
                                     Make/Model

                                    Ford Fiesta
                                    Ford Bobcat
                                    Ford Fairmont
                                    Ford Granada
                                    Ford Developmental
                                    Ford Developmental
                                    Ford Maverick
                                    Ford Light Duty Truck
                                    Ford Thunderbird
                                    Mercury Monarch
                                    AMC Concorde
                                    Toyota
                                    Pontiac Sunbird
                                                    Cal./Fed.
                                                  Configuration

                                                   California  '
                                                   California
                                                   Federal
                                                   California
                                                   Developmental
                                                   Developmental
                                                   Federal
                                                   Federal
                                                   Developmental
                                                   Federal
                                                   Federal
                                                   Federal
                                                   California
                                                                    Catalyst

                                                                    Oxidation
                                                                    Three-way
                                                                    Oxidation
                                                                    Oxidation
                                                                    Three-way
                                                                    Three-way-
                                                                    Oxidation
                                                                    Oxidation
                                                                    Three-way
                                                                    Oxidation
                                                                    Oxidation
                                                                    Oxidation
                                                                    Three-way
Notes:
i
2
3
This vehicle was tested by both EPA - Ann Arbor and Ford Motor Company
RTF  -  Research Triangle Park
SWRI  -  Southwest Research Institute

-------
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