AC77-02
            Technical Support Repprt for Regulatory Action
         Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Proposed Revisions
                in the Exhaust Emission Standards for
              New and In-Use Gas Turbine Aircraft Engines
                     Based on Industry Submittals
                                  by

                           Richard S. Wilcox
                             Richard Hunt
                             December 1977
                                NOTICE

Technical support reports for regulatory action do not necessarily
represent the final EPA decision on regulatory issues.  They are intended
to present a technical analysis of an issue and recommendations resulting
from the assumptions and constraints of that analysis.  Agency policy
considerations or data received subsequent to the date of release of this
report may altey th$ recommendations reached.  Readers are cautioned to
seek the latest analysis from EPA before using the information contained
herein.
               Standards Development and Support Branch
                 Emission Control Technology Division
             Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control
                  Office of Air and Waste Management
                 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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                          TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction	1

Methodology	3

Discussion	  ....  .8

Conclusions  	  ......  25

References	26

Appendix A
Appendix B


Appendix C



Appendix D


Appendix E
.Aircraft Turbine Engine Manufacturer's
Cost Submittals	,	A-l

Derivation of Emissions Reduction Over
an Engine's Lifetime	.  . B-l
Derivation of the Incremental Engine
Costs Associated with the Proposed
Standards	
C-l
Derivation of Fuel Savings Associated
with the Proposed Standards	D-l

Fleet Projection and Engine Inventory ....  . E-l

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                                  -1-
                             INTRQDUCTION









     This report contains a cost-effectiveness analysis of the proposed




revisions in exhaust emission standards for new and infuse aircraft gas




turbine engines using information supplied by engine manufacturers.  The




resulting cost-benefit ratios may be compared with those of other aircraft




and non-aircraft pollution abatement control strategies in order to




determine the most cost effective means of achieving the National Ambient




Air Quality Standards (42 CFR §420).









     The control strategies analyzed are:









     1.   Control of newly manufactured gas turbine engines in 1981 for




     HC and CO only;









     2.   Retrofit of in-use gas turbine engines in 1985 for HC and CO




     only (to the same levels as in #1); and









     3.   Control of newly manufactured gas turbine engines in 1984 for




     HC, CO, and NOx.









     The la,ck of detailed data available for study has made a rigorous




analysis impossible.  The cost information received thus far is incomplete




and poorly documented; therefore, it is impossible to determine the




validity of the data submitted (Appendix A).

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                                   -2-
Furthermore,  the very nature of  the study necessitates using assumptions

and projections in an attempt to ascertain future facts.   No matter how

carefully considered, these forecasts  will be subject to  error and

interpretation.




     Within the constraints described  above,  the  cost-effectiveness

figures generated by this analysis  represent  EPA's best estimate of the
     ^
costs imposed by the control strategies  under consideration based on

industry submittals.




     In this  analysis, the JT8D  is  assumed to be  out of production by

1984.  However, shortly after finalization of the report, the EPA learned

that production of this engine would continue and, in fact, a growth

version of the engine was planned.   This new  information  along with

EPA's independent cost estimate  of  the proposed standards will be addressed

in a subsequent report.

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                                    —3—
                              METHODOLOGY









     The procedure used in this analysis consisted of determining the




cost increment and the total reduction in fleet exhaust emissions for




each control strategy.  A portion of the total cost was then applied




to each individual pollutant.  The resulting HC, CO, and NOx cost-




effectiveness factors are defined in terms of dollars spent per ton of pollutant




saved ($/Ton).  A discussion of each part of the methodology is presented in




the following sections.  The undiscounted lifetime costs (zero discount




rate), expressed in 1976 dollars, are used throughout this analysis.









Emissions Reduction









     The pollution abatement brought about by the use of a low-emission




version of an engine is computed by finding the net reduction




per landing-takeoff (LTO) cycle and multiplying that figure by an




estimate of the total LTO cycles that engine will experience during its




useful life (References 1 and 2).









     A complete discussion and table of the emission performances for the




engines affected "by the proposed regulations are presented in Appendix B.
Cost
     The incremental cost of each control strategy is conveniently




separated into four major components:  non-recurring, manufacturing,




operating, and maintenance.  In most instances, the amounts of each cost

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                                  -4-
component were supplied by gas turbine engine manufacturers (References




3, 4, and 5).  When the costs associated with a specific engine were not




identified, estimates based on other engines produced by the same




manufacturer or a similar model from a different manufacturer were used.









     Non-recurring.  This cost component is composed of several elements:




design, development, certification,  and initial production.  These funds




represent the corporate investment associated with the application of demon-




strated technology to specific engine families and must be recovered in




the engine selling price.  Not included are the research and development




(R&D) costs of initial design and engine demonstration which were funded




through U.S. Government contract and Independent Research and Development




(IR & D) money.









     Manufacturing.  The cost of manufacturing refers only to the increment




in engine selling price as a consequence of the increased complexity or




more expensive materials found in a low-emission engine.   This burden is




generally attributed to the combustor and fuel supply system,  but may




include increased costs to manufacture the pressure casing and equipment




bay.









     Appendix C contains a discussion and table of the non-recurring




costs and unit costs, which reflect  the manufacturing expenses, asso-




ciated with the various control strategies.









     Operating.  In this analysis,  the operating cost is  defined as the




increment in fuel consumption between regulated and non-regulated

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                                -5-
engines.  No performance penalties  (such as a loss of thrust) are


expected from the use of low-emission technology.





     The incremental fuel use is discussed and calculated in Appendix D.





     Maintenance.  Although generally considered an operating expense,


maintenance cost is segregated in this study because it includes subject


areas for which no estimates are available, or elements which are too


abstract to define with any certainty.  These expenses, typically incurred


by the air carriers, are excluded from this analysis.





Fleet Projection





     Having obtained the emissions reduction and cost of control for


each engine model, it is necessary to average them over the fleet in
                                                                     \

order to obtain overall figures.  Three fleets are of interest:  (1) the


fleet of pre-1981 aircraft which is subject to the 1985 Retrofit Standard,
                                                            1

(2) the 1981 to 1984 aircraft fleet which is subject to the 1981 NME-


Standard; and (3) the 1984 and beyond fleet of new aircraft which


is subject to the 1984 NME Standard.





     The projection used to obtain each fleet mix is based on EPA TSR


AC76-03, (Reference 6).  In addition to this, certain further assumptions


had to be made, e.g., that the 3 engine wide body fleet (given in the


projection) consists of equal numbers of each candidate aircraft.  These

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                                -6-
assumptions along with a summary of the fleet projection from TSR AC76-

03 that is relevant to this analysis are given in Appendix E.



Cost Apportionment



     The costing methodology employed in this analysis is consistent

with that used for automobile emission control strategies (Reference 7),

For the 1981 NME and 1985 Retrofit Standards which control only HC and

CO, no quantitative approach to cost application exists since the same

technology controls both species.   For this reason,  the cost of control

is divided equally between the two pollutants.



     The 1984 NME Standard regulates NOx in addition to HC and CO.

Since the allowable levels for HC and CO are the same as 1981 NME, the

same cost of control is assigned to these two pollutants for 1984 NME

and any additional burden is attributed to NOx control.



Cost-Effectiveness



     The cost effectiveness for each of the proposed standards is

calculated by first finding the total cost as follows:



     Total Cost =
            Total        +  Total selling  +      Total fuel          (1)
     non-recurring costs   price increment   consumption increment    /

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                                — 7—
     For the 1981 NME and 1985 Retrofit Standards, 50 percent of the

total cost is applied to the total reduction in each pollutant which yields

the final cost-effectiveness ratio.
     Cost effectiveness	50% of equation 1	
     for pollutant A      Total reduction in pollutant A                ^
     For the 1984 NME Standard, the cost-effectiveness ratio for HC and CO

is the same as that found in Equation 2 for the 1981 NME Standard.  These

ratios are then used to determine the NOx cost^effectiveness ratio in the

following manner:



     HC allocation = (Total reduction in HC) (Eq. 2 for HC)             (3)



     CO allocation = (Total reduction in CO) (Eq. 2 for CO)             (4)



     NOx allocation =? Eq. 1 for 1984 NME -  (Eq. 3 + Eq. 4)              (5)
     Cost effectiveness _  	  Eq. 5	                        ( .
     for NOx            ~ Total reduction in NOx

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                               -8-







                              DISCUSSION









EMISSION REDUCTIONS









     The exhaust emission reductions are calculated over a 15 year




period to approximate the corporate  accounting lifetime.  This interval




is somewhat arbitrary because the rigorous maintenance schedule of an




aircraft turbine engine essentially  precludes its ever being discarded.




Since the engine's service life is practically limitless,  the exhaust




reductions are also.  In this respect aircraft engines differ from other




mobile sources, such as automobile engines, which have rather definite




useful lives.









     It should be noted that because of limitations in the 1984 NME fleet




forecast, only a 10 year production  period is accounted for.  Since the




production runs of engines in compliance with this standard are expected




to be greater than 10 years, this limitation causes the total emission




reductions to be under estimated.









     Tables 1, 2, and 3 summarize the lifetime reductions  in gaseous




exhaust emissions for each engine as well as the  total reduction for




each fleet affected by the 1981 NME,  1985 Retrofit,  and 1984 NME Standards,




respectively.









     By comparing the total lifetime reductions in each of the tables,




the significance of the pollution abatement brought  about  by the 1985

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                                  -9-
                            Table 1

                Reductions in Gaseous Emissions
             Resulting from the 1981 NME Standards

                                                      Total
             Tons/Engine/Lifetime3 In-Service   Tons/Lifetime (000)
Model
JT8D-rl7
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22
RB211-524
TOTAL
HC
70
146
72
87
125
42
386
351

CO
204
264
242
174
207
205
447
472

Engines
76
140
140
100
100
732
52
52
1388
HC
5.3
20.4
10.1
8.7
12.5
30.7
20.1
18.3
126.1
CO
15.5
37.0
33,9
17.4
20.7
150.1
23.2
24.5
322.3
See Appendix B.
See Appendix E.

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                                   -10-
                             Table  2

                  Reductions  in Gaseous Emissions
             Resulting  from the 1985 Retrofit Standard
                                                        Total
               Tons/Engine/Lifetime   In-Service   Tons/Lifetime (000)
Model
JT8D-17
JT9D-7
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22
TOTAL
HC
47
97 -
58
83
42C
257

CO
136
176
116
138
205°
298

Engines
3399
804
358
358
78
358
5355
HC
159.8
78.0
20.8
29.7
3.3
92.0
383.6
CO
462.3
141.5
41.5
49.4
16.0
106.7
817.4
 Retrofitted engine lifetime  is 10 years since most engines  have  already
 expended some of  their  useful life.  See Appendix B.

 See Appendix E.
"Most of these  engines will  be new, therefore, the full  15 year  lifetime
 value is used.

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                                    -11-
                              Table 3

                  Reductions in Gaseous Emissions
               Resulting from the 1984 NME Standards
                                                        Total
               Tons/Engine/Lifetime  In-Service   Tons/Lifetime (000)
Model
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56C
RB211-22B
RB211-524
' TOTAL
HC
140
53
87
122
42
386
338

CO
220
195
195
225
205
447
446

NOx
121
63
87
97.5
26
55
95

Engines
892
892
554
554
3030
277
277
6476
HC
124.9
47.3
48.2
67.6
127.3
106.9
93.6
615.8
CO
196.2
173.9
108.0
124.7
621.2
123.8
123.5
1471.3
NOx
107.9
56.2
48.2
54.0
78.8
15.2
26.3
386.6
  See Appendix B.


  Normalized to 10 years production (2x5 years production).   See Appendix E.


C JTlOD's burden included.

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                               -12-
retrofit is apparent.   Furthermore,  the number of JT8D engines is so




large that its contribution to the total lifetime reduction of the




retrofitted fleet is approximately 40 percent for EC and 60 percent for




CO (Table 2).









     The JT10D was omitted in the 1981 NME and 1985 retrofit fleets




(Tables 1 and 2).  The engine's production design has not been finalized




and no companion airframe exists at  this time.   For these reasons, it is




unlikely that JT10D engines will be  produced  under the above standards.









     The JT10D is expected to hold a significant share of the market in




compliance with the 1984 NME Standard.  However, the EPAP values and




rated thrust of the engine are unknown;  therefore, these values were




arbitrarily considered to be equivalent to those for the CFM56, an




engine of similar size.  For this reason,  the JT10D is included in the




CFM56 values used in Table 3.









     The retrofit projection (Table  2) omits  the JT9D-70 since very few




of these will be in the fleet.   The  impact of its exclusion is negligible,
COST
     Within this section,  engine costs  and  operating costs are discussed.




Engine costs are separated into non-recurring  and recurring categories.




Recurring costs are represented by  (1)  the  selling price increment




engine which reflects increments in the manufacturing complexity and

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                                    -13-
hardware costs.  Neither the selling price increment nor the retrofit




unit cost include pro-rated non-recurring expenses.









Engine Costs









     The quantification of future costs is difficult, and when combined




with the incomplete and undocumented cost estimates submitted by the




engine manufacturers, conclusions must be accepted with caution.




Furthermore, the results of this section should be regarded only as




accounting for a significant share of the impact brought about by the




proposed standards.









     Some important cost elements are excluded in this analysis.  NOx




control schemes  (category 3) may initially degrade the durability of the




combustor. and various high pressure turbine parts below contemporary levels,




causing higher operating costs from increases in parts and service, and




increased engine removal rates.  Although the technology has been defined,




its application  to specific engine families remains.  Until more hardware




is finalized, the quantification of any maintenance increment imposed on




the airline industry is tenuous at best; therefore, this type of expense




is not considered in the cost-effectiveness calculations.









     Other expenses to the airlines and airframe manufacturers such as




the development and installation costs to incorporate low-emission engines




into existing airframe designs are also unaccounted for since the magnitude




of this change is unknown.  It should be noted, however, that the implementation




date of the 1985 retrofit was chosen to minimize installation costs by

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                                  -14-
allowing sufficient lead time for  incorporating  low-emission engine




parts into existing maintenance schedules.









     Similarily, elements which may offset  some  of the costs associated




with the proposed standards are excluded from consideration.









     1.  The aromatic content of jet fuel has been escalating in recent




     years and the use of high-aromatic shale and  coal derived fuels in




     the future is almost certain.   Conventional technology combustors




     cannot cope with these fuels:   combustion becomes smokey and increases




     in flame luminosity cause combustor cooling problems.   Category 3




     technology combustors avoid these problems  since they are lean




     burning and, therefore, operate at cooler temperatures.  Moreover,




     higher aromatic fuels are expected to  be lower in price.









     2.  The application of non-recurring expenses in this analysis




     artifically inflates the final cost-effectiveness figures.   In




     reality this money will be amortized over a greater number  of




     engines since (1) engines used by airlines  not operating within the




     U.S. are not included and (2)  the 1984 NME  section considers only




     the engines produced in the first 10 years.









     3.  The effects of the learning curve  reduce  production costs as




     experience accumulates.









     4.  As technology progresses,  maintenance problems will be  solved




     by re-establishing or improving component durability levels.

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                                     -15-
     5.  The economic value of the physical, biological, and medical




     consequences of lower pollutant concentrations are not estimated.









     To derive a more accurate estimate of the total selling price




increment, a 20 percent increase in the in-service fleet numbers (Appendix




E) is used to develop cost information.  These extra units reflect the




spare parts inventory of the airlines.









     The costs associated with the 1981 NME, 1985 Retrofit, and 1984 NME




Standards are summarized in Tables 4, 5, and 6, respectively.  The




differences between engine families are attributed to engine size and




combustor complexity.  No additonal R & D is required for the 1985




retrofit because the same hardware is used to meet the 1981 NME Standard.









Operating Costs









     The only operating expense identified as a consequence of the




control schemes is the increment in fuel consumption between regulated




and non-regulated engines.  To meet the proposed standards, one of the




design points will be an improvement in the combustion efficiency at idle




from approximately 95 percent to essentially 100 percent, resulting in




a 5 percent decrease in the idle specific fuel consumption (SFC) for most




engines (Reference 8).  The JT8D is an exception; its smokeless combustor




is already better than average.   Therefore, a 1 percent improvement is




allowed for this engine.

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                                  -16-
                              Table 4

                 The Costs Associated with  the 1981
             NME Standard  (Category 1 and 2 Technology)
TOTAL
                      (In thousands of dollars)
             Non-Recurring
 Model           Costs
            Selling Price
           Increment/Engine
 Total     Selling Price
Engines  Increment/Family
JT8D
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22B
RB211-524
15,000
16,000
24,000
8,000
8,000
8,000
10,000
10,000
13
50
70
10
10
10
3
3
91
168
168
125
125
878
62
62
1,183
8,400
11,760
1,250
1,250
8,780
186
186
99,000
              32.995
 See Appendix C.

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                                    -17-
                                Table 5

         The Costs Associated with the 1985 Retrofit Standard
                     (Category 1 and 2 Technology)
TOTAL
                       (In thousands of dollars)

Model
JT8D
JT9D-7
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22B
Retrofit
Unit Cost
25
90
90
90
60
31
Total
Engines
4079
965
430
430
94
430
Retrofit
Cost/Family
101,975
86,850
38,700
38,700
5,640
13,330
285,195
  See Appendix C.

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                                    -18-
                                Table 6

            The Costs Associated with the 1984 NME Standard
                        (Category 3 Technology)
                       (In thousands of dollars)

Modela
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22
RB211-524
JT10D
Non-Re cur ring
Costs
70,000
100,000
30,000
40,000
40,000
55,000
55,000
50,000
Selling Price0
Increment /Engine
190
190
70
70
50
130
130
120
Total
Engines
1070
1070
665
665
1818
332
332
1818
Selling Price
Increment /Family
203,300
203,300
46,550
46,550
90,900
43,150
43,150
218,200
TOTAL
440,000
895,100
   JT8D is assumed to be out of production and replaced by CFM56.
   See Appendix C.

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                                     -19-
     The General Electric engines produced in compliance with the proposed




1981 NME and 1985 Retrofit Standards will experience a net increase in




idle SFC.  The use of sector burning (category 1) by these engines




causes a 10 percent decrease in component efficiency, which coupled with




the 5 percent benefit in combustion efficiency, yields a 5 percent




overall penalty in idle SFC.









     The fuel consumption increments associated with the 1981 NME, 1985




Retrofit, and 1984 NME Standards are summarized in Tables 7, 8^and 9,




respectively, in 1976 dollars.









     The penalty associated with the GE engines is significant for the




1981 NME and 1985 retrofit fleets (Table 7 and 8).  However, as shown in




Table 8, the large reduction in fuel consumption for the JT8D engine




family offsets the GE penalty and provides an overall fuel savings for




the 1985 retrofit fleet.  The fuel savings are more pronounced for the




1984 NME fleet.  The use of category 3 technology provides a 5% reduction




in idle SFC for all engine families.









Cost Effectiveness









     The overall cost effectiveness for each of the standards under




consideration is presented in Table 10.  Cost-effectiveness figures are




not presented for specific engine families because the data lacked




sufficient detail to produce meaningful results.









     As shown in Table 10, requiring the 1985 retrofit in conjunction

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                                  -20-
                             Table  7

            The Fuel Consumption Increment Associated
                     with  the 1981  NME Fleet
In-Service
Model Engines
JT8D
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM-56
RB211-22
RB211-524
TOTAL
76
140
140
104
104
732
52
52

$ Saved/Engine
(x 10~J)
9
27
26
-20
-20
-23
31
31

$ Saved/Family
(x 10~b)
0.7
3.8
3.6
-2.1
-2.1
-16.8
1.6
1.6
-9.7
See Appendix E.
See Appendix D.

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                                    -21-
                                Table 8

              The Fuel Consumption Increment Associated
                     with the 1985 Retrofit Fleet
Model
In-Service
  Engines
$ Saved/Engine
   (x IP""3)
$ Saved/Family
   (x 10"b)
JT8D
JT9D-7
CF6-6
GF6-50
CFM-56
RB2211-22
TOTAL
3399
804
358
358
78
358

6
18
-20
-20
-23
21

20.4
14.5
- 4.7
- 4.7
- 1.8
7.5
31.2
  See Appendix E.
  See Appendix D.

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                                 -22-
                             Table  9

            The Fuel Consumption  Increment Associated
                     with  the  1984  NME Fleet
Model
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM-56C
RB211-22
RB211-524
TOTAL
In-Service
Engines
892
892
554
554
3030
277
277

$ Saved /Engine
(x 10"J)
27
26
20
20
23
31
31

$ Saved /Family
(x 10~&)
24.1
23.2
11.1
11.1
69.7
8.6
8.6
156.4
See Appendix E.
See Appendix D.
Includes JT10D burden.

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                                    -23-






with the 1981 NME Standard is more cost effective than the 1981 NME




Standard alone.









     The cost effectiveness of controlling aircraft turbine engines for




HC in 1981 and 1985, and NOx in 1984 is considered to be comparable with




that of other sources under consideration (Table 11).

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                                    -24-
                               Table 10

                The Overall Cost-Effectiveness of the
                 Standards Under Consideration ($/Ton)
          Pollutant

             HC

             CO

             NOx
1981 NME

  560

  220
1985 Retrofit
in addition to
  1981 NME

     390

     170
1984 NME

  560a

  220a

 1316
  The HC and CO values are the same as for 1981 NME.
                               Table 11

               The Overall Cost-Effectiveness of Other
            Control Strategies Under Consideration ($/Ton)
     Strategy                         HC

Stationary Engines (75% control)
LDV (1.0 g/mile)
Utility Boilers (90% control)
LDV (0.4 g/mile)

Gasoline Handling, Stage 1           100^
Gasoline Handling, Stage 2           700^
LDV (0.41 g.mile)                     470*
LDV (IM)                             420J;
Neighborhood Dry Cleaners            770
                                    N0xc

                                    340
                                    450
                                   1200
                                   2300
  Reference 7.
  Reference 9.

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                                   -25-
                              CONCLUSIONS









     The cost-effectiveness information generated in this report is




based on a limited amount of data and lacked sufficient detail  to allow




a rigorous analysis.  Within this constraint, the cost-effectiveness




figures are considered to be a reasonable approximation of the  control




costs as a consequence of the standards under consideration based on




industry submittals.









     The costs of controlling HC and CO to the levels prescribed by the




1981 NME Standard are similar to other control strategies and in combination




with the 1985 Retrofit Standard, they are more cost-effective.  The




price of NOx control under the 1984 NME Standard is considered  to be




comparable to other proposed control strategies for mobile and  stationary




sources.









     A fuel consumption penalty is associated with the 1981 standard,




although when combined with the 1985 retrofit an overall reduction in




fuel usage is expected.  A very substantial fuel savings is expected




from engines in compliance with the 1984 standard.

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                                  -26-
                             REFERENCES

1.   Aviation Week and Space Technology.  1977. Operating  and  Cost  Data
     747, DC-10,  and L-1011~second  quarter,  1977.   107(13)46-47.

2.   Aviation Week and Space Technology.  1976. Operating  and  cost  data—
     727, 737, DC-9, BAG 111—aircraft  in passenger  service—year  1976.
     106(24)(48-49).

3.   Pascal, D.D., Pratt and Whitney Aircraft. 1976. Letter of  26  February
     1976 to E.O.  Stork, EPA.

4.   Bahr, D.W.,  General Electric. 1976.  Letter of 22 April 1976  to
     G. Kittredge, EPA.

5.   Rolls Royce  Ltd. 1976. Additional  comments prepared  at request of
     the Environmental Protection Agency.  DP279 Addendum 1.

6.   Hunt, R. 1976. SST emissions projection. Environmental Protection
     Agency AC 76-03.

7.   Department of Transportation, Interagency Task  Force on  Motor
     Vehicle Goals Beyond 1980.  1976. Air quality, noise  and  health.

8.   Hunt, R. and E. Danielson.  1976. Aircraft technology assessment—
     status of the gas turbine program.   Environmental Protection  Agency.

9.   Angus, R.M.  1977. Draft economic energy  impact  assessment  for
     alternatives to national air quality standards  for photochemical
     oxidants. EPA Internal Report.

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                                    A-l
                              APPENDIX A

                        Aircraft Turbine Engine
                    Manufacturer's Cost Submittals
     The pertinent portions of the manufacturer's  submittals  are pre-
sented as follows:

          Manufacturer                            Page

     Pratt and Whitney Aircraft                 A-2  and A-3
     Division of United Technologies

     General Electric Aircraft                  A-4  and A-5
     Engine Group

     Rolls-Royce  (1971) Limited                 A-6  and A-7

-------
 ,•» WHITNEY AIRCRAFT
'                                -        A-2
                                   ATTACHMENT A

                      5 YEAR LOW EMISSIONS EFFORT SUMMARY

    Tabulated below are the expenditures in thousands of dollars for both visible and invisible
    exhaust emissions reduction efforts for the period 1971 through 1975 by category in then
    year dollars.

JT3D/TF33
JT3/J57,
JT4/J75
JT8D
JT9D
FT9
JT10D
JT12/J60
TF30
J52
Technology
Contracts
Proposals
Emissions R&D
Work for Other
Div.
Industrial Power
1971
289.7
204.9
148.6
30.4
	
	
11.0
89.2
299.5
208.1
61.9
290.3
	
538.0
1972
131.9
257.2
70.2
172.9
	
	
3.4
136.0
150.9
225.0
117.4
790.6
181.5
2,423.6
1973
772.4
302.5
90.2
49.9
	
148.4
0.5
16.8
80.6
896.2
107.4
1,066.2
155.0
2,143.1
1974
673.6
786.1
38.3
202.0
	
103.8
	
3.0
, 	
783.3
223.3
2,504.9
21.8
1,203.4
1975
313.4
24.8
740.7
2,537.0
46.9
331.2
	
.' 	
	
1,677.7
261.6
2,798.6
	 .
2,579.5
Total
2,181.0
1,575.5
1,088.0
2,992.2
46.9
583.4
14.9
245.0
531.0
3,790.3
771.6
7,450.6
358.3
8,887.6
    Total          2,171.6  4,660.6   5,829.2     6,543.5     11,311.4    30,516.3

    The source of the funding is as follows:

                          Government contracts         $  5,794,100
                          Independent Research
                          and Development              24,722,200
                              Total                   $30,516,300
    •


                                  PAGE NO.  1

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«TT A WHITN6V AIRCRAFT
                                            A-3
                                      ATTACHMENT B


                       LOW EMISSION BURNER PRICING INFORMATION

      MODIFIED CURRENT BURNER

      The pricing information given below must be considered as "rough order of magnitude" esti-
      mates only, and is in no way to be construed as forming any commitment on the part of
      Pratt & Whitney Aircraft  for use as a basis for the establishment or negotiation of actual prices.
      The cost of development  must be recovered over the number of engines in which the hardware
      is installed. In the case of the JT8D where no retrofit is planned, and the JT9D-70 where
      there are relatively few engines in the field the development cost increment will be significant.

                                                    '	1976 Dollars	
                                              JT8D           JT9D-7           JT9D-70

       Production price increment for modified
        low emission burners w/o specific
        development                           $13,000         $50,000          $70,000

       JT9D retrofit kit price w/o specific
        development                            — -           $90,000          $115,000

       Development cost                        $15,000,000     $16,000,000      $24,000,000
      ADVANCED STAGED BURNER

      Estimates of the development cost and a price for the JT9D advanced.staged burner for the
      JT9D are an order of magnitude cruder than the above estimates for modified current burners.

      The development of this burner for incorporation in production engines in the 1984 time
      period is estimated to cost up to 100 million (1976) dollars.  This assumes this concept can
      be developed to meet all the operational  and reliability criteria of a commercial engine burner,
      which is still a question at this time.  The production engine price increment for this burner
      is estimated to be  190,000 (1976) dollars exclusive of the development cost increment.
                                      PACE NO.

-------
       GENERAL^ ELECTRIC
                                              A-4
Mr. George Kittfedge
April 22, 1976
Page 5
        Estimated Costs Of Incorporating Gaseous Pollutant Emissions Control
Features Into Operational Engines

        Detailed and precise estimates of the costs associated with incorporating
gaseous pollutant emissions control  capabilities into our CFG or CFM56 engines
are not presently available.  Such detailed estimates cannot be made at this
time, because the full extent of the changes needed in these engines to meet
th6 applicable standards are not fully known as yet.

        In the statement we presented at the public hearings, we recommended
that the gaseous pollutant emissions standards applicable to engines already
in production or in development be modified to permit the use of current tech-
nology combustors.  As is discussed in our statement, we believe current tech-
nology combustors can be developed and modified to meet or approach the presently
defined standards for carbon monoxide and unburned hydrocarbons emissions, but
cannot be made to meet the presently defined standards for oxides of nitrogen
emissions.
        Based on the assumed use of modified versions of current technology
combustors, the following are preliminary estimates of the costs involved in
the case of our two CF6 engine families:

                                                 Approximate Costs For
                                                 Each CF6 Engine Family
                                                 (In 1976 Dollars)
    Design, Development, Qualification
    And  Initial Production Costs

    Added Price Per Production Engine -
    For  Newly Manufactured Engines
    (Excluding Pro-rated Design,
    Development, Qualification And
    Initial Production Costs)

    Unit Engine Price To Retrofit
    (During Overhaul) Existing Engines
    (Excluding Pro-rated Design,
    Development, Qualification And
    Initial Production Costs)
$8,000,000
$   10,000
$   90,000
                                                              Continued on Page  6

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      GENERAL^ ELECTRIC                 A-5
Mr. George Kittredge
April 22, 1976
Page 6
These estimated costs and prices are based on the assumed use of both sector
burning at idle and combustor dome design modifications to attain reduced carbon
monoxide and unburned hydrocarbons emissions levels.

        As is discussed in the statement we presented at the hearings and in our
accompanying report submittal, we believe that consideration of the use of an
advanced technology combustor design concept, such as the Double Annular Dome
combustor design concept we are currently developing in the NASA Experimental
Clean Combustor Program, in existing production or development engines is not
appropriate at this time.  However, for comparative purposes only, the following
are some very preliminary estimates of the costs of incorporating such an
advanced technology combustor design concept into our CF6 engines:

                                                 Approximate Costs For
                                                 Each CFG Engine Family
                                                 (In 1976 Dollars)

    Design, Development, Qualification               $32,000,000 to
    And Initial Production Costs                     $40,000,000
    (Excluding NASA Experimental Clean
    Combustor Program Funding)

    Added Price Per Production Engine -              $    70,000 to
    For Newly Manufactured Engines                      • 100,000
    (Excluding Pro-rated Design,
    Development, Qualification And
    Initial Production Costs)

These latter estimates are based on the use of the Double Annular Dome Combustor
design concept in its present form and, of course, are based on the assumption
that this advanced combustor design approach is found to be generally satis-
factory in the forthcoming demonstrator engine tests.
       We trust this information will be useful in your assessments of the
presently defined and proposed gaseous pollutant emissions standards.   If you
have any questions or comments on any of this information, or any contained in
our previously submitted statement and report,  please do not hesitate  to contact
me.
Very truly yours
                                                    truly
                                                    rr.
                                               D.  W.  Dahr,  Manager
                                               Advanced Combustion &
cr                                             Emissions Control Technology
Attachments

-------
                            A-6
Cost of Incorporating New  Coobustors - Large Engines
4.1   Introduction
      The prices quoted  in the  main Rolls-Royce  response to the
      EPA Public Hearings  of 27/28 January 1976  (DP 279) were derived
      assuming a worldwide application.  This  is considered
      realistic as far as  newly manufactured large  engines are
      concerned since Rolls-Royce would  want to  maintain only one
      production standard.  This would not apply, however, to new
      hardware renuired  for retrospective  fitment to  in-service
      engines - since only US operators  would  be renuired to purchase
      the new reduced pollution combustcrs and water  injection kits.

      The prices are derived from the estimated  manufacturing unit
      cost plus the recovery of the  associated non-recurring costs.

4.2   Newly Manufactured Engines
      It is assumed that the new combustor will  be  a  modified version
      of the existing design.  Therefore its unit manufacturing cost
      will be only slightly greater than the  existing version.  The
      majority of the additional costs,  however, are  non-recurring
      and are largely associated with  recovering the  engineering
      programme expenditure.  Thus  the  increase  in price for each
      engine incorporating the improved corabustor is  mainly dictat&d
      by the projected sales for these  engines.   On the other hand
      if water injection is required,  this represents a major acidities
      to the engine equipment and  thus  also to the  unit pries.  Again
      the price per engine will vary depending on the projected sales.

      The extra price per engine assuming fitment to the engines  of US
      operators only, is shown for comparison with  those based on
     , world wide application in the table below at  1976 rates:
RB211 Engines
Worldwide Market
(quoted in DP 279)
US Only
Now Combustor Alone
#10,000
#22,000
New Combustor plus
Water Injection
Equipment
#54,000
#72,000

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                          A-7
4.3   Retrospective Application
4.3.1   Replacement within a 4 Year Period
        Rolls-Royce confirms that it could produce new combustors
        and water injection equipment at a rate which should enable
        the operators of its engines in the USA to replace existing
        RB211 liners by the reduced pollution combustor within the
        four year period to 1985.  The investigations which have
        been carried out have shown, however, that it will not be
        possible to rework the existing liners to the configuration
        of the new combustor.  Hence costs have beei* calculated on
        the basis that new combustors -vill be purchased.  Note also
        that no allowance has been made in the prices quoted for
        stripping and rebuilding the engine specially to fit the new
        combustor or for loss of revenue to the operator caused by
        the unscheduled removal of the engine should this be required
        to meet the retrofit programme schedule.

        The predicted price  per engine for the retrofit parts,
        calculated on the above assumptions,  is shown in the table
        below:
RB211 Engines
US Market only
Worldwide
(quoted in DP 279)
New Combustor Alone
#47,000
£37,000
New Combustor plus
Water Injection
Equipment
#98,000
#82,000
        It  should be noted that the true cost of retrofit action to
        the airline operators would in effect be greater than the
        values specified.  No attempt has been made to assess the
        write off value of the existing combustor hardware which should
        bo  ino.l.mleri in  any estimate of the real cost of a four year
        replacement programme.

-------
                                  B-l
                              APPENDIX B

      Derivation of Emissions Reduction over an Engine's Lifetime
     The regulated EPAP values used to derive the exhaust emission
reductions per engine reflect the actual levels achievable based on
current test results.  By using these values instead of the more con-
servative approach of limiting the EPAPs to the maximum allowable levels
permitted by the regulation,  a more realistic simulation of the actual
decrease in air pollutants at major air carrier terminals is accomplished.

     In a few instances where the demonstrated EPAPs were above the
maximum permissable levels, they were adjusted to meet the standard.
This is consistent with the fact that all engines must comply with the
regulation or they will not be certified.  Where no data were available
and no reasonable basis for estimating the engine's emissions existed,
EPAP values which conformed to the standard were assigned.

     The useful life of a new engine is considered to be 15 years.  A retro-
fitted engine has already been in service, therefore, it is assumed to
have 10 years of the normal 15 year lifetime remaining.  The retrofitted
CFM56 is an exception; it is a new engine without an existing application.
This means the CFM56 engines in commercial service before 1981 will be
practically brand new, hence, the full 15 year lifetime is used.

     The retrofitted RB211 engines are likely to be almost entirely of
the dash 22 variety.  The dash 524 makes up a relatively small share of
the total population at this time and is expected to remain a minor
element of the RB211 fleet produced prior to 1981 (the engines subject
to the retrofit rule).  For simplicity, it is assumed that the RB211
retrofit fleet is exclusively composed of the dash 22.

     The pounds of pollutant reduced per engine during each LTO cycle
is computed by using the following equation:
     Net Reduction of Pollutant A =
          [EPAP (A)      i  ,. j - EPAP (A)     .  ^  ,]  (Impulse/1000)         (1)
                  unregulated          regulated      K


     Where impulse power is defined as:


     (Pounds of Rated Thrust) Z   n   [(% Power   ,  )(Hours  ,  )]          (2)
                               cycle         mode       mode


     The tons of pollutant saved over the lifetime of an engine is
determined in the subsequent equation:


     Lifetime net reduction of Pollutant A =
          (Equation 1) (//LTOs/year) (useful life)/2000 Ibs/T              (3)

-------
                                  B-2
where the useful life is the total number of years in service.

     The exhaust emission reductions for each engine affected by
the standards under consideration are summarized in Tables B-l, B-2
and B-3.

-------
                                                Table B-l

                         Exhaust Emissions Reduction per Engine Resulting from the
                                   1981 NME Standard (Category 1 and 2)
Useful life for new engines is 15 years.


Adjusted to meet standard.


No data; baseline emissions were estimated
on the basis of the RB211-22B.
                                                                                                          Tons
Pounds
Engine Thrust
Model (000)
JT8D-17
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22
RB211-524
16
46.2
51.2
38.9
49.9
22.2
42
50
Impulse
1456
4598
4655
3016
3867
1764
3502
4442
LTOs/yr
2455
900
900
1200
1050
2455
1300
1300
EPAP
(Unregulated)
HC CO
3.1
10.4
2.4
3.4
4.3
1.4
12.0
8.6°
12.8
10.4
9.7
10.0
10.8
10.6
17.4
14. 6C
EPAP
(Regulated)
HC CO
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.5
5.2"
1.9
2.0
3.6
4.0
4.3b
4.3b
3.7
Pounds
Net Reduction/LTO
HC
3.8
21.6
10.7
9.7
15.9
2.3
39.6
36.0
CO
12.4
39.1
35.8
19.3
26.3
11.1
45.9
48.4
Lifetime Net
Reduction/Unit
HC
69.7
145.9
72.3
86.9
124.9
42.2
385.8
350.8
CO
203.8
263.9
241.9
173.7
207.1
204.6
447.3
471.9
                                                   B-3

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                                                  Table B-2

                           Exhaust  Emissions  Reduction per Engine Resulting from the
                                   1984  NME Standard  (Category 3 Technology)
                                                                                                         Tons,
Engine
Model
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22
RB211-524
Pounds
Thrust
(000)
46.2
51.2
38.9
49.9
22.2
42
50
EPAP
(Unregulated)
Impulse
4598
4655
3016
3867
1764
3502
4442
LTOs/yr
900 .
900
1200
1050
2455
1300
1300
HC
4.8
2.4
3.4
4.3
1.4
12.0
8.66
CO
10.4
9.7
10.0
10.8
10.6
17.4
14. 6S
NOx
6.5
5.8
7.2
7.7
4.8
5.6
6.26
EPAP
(Regulated)
HC
0.3
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.7d
0.8f
CO
3.3
3.5
2.8
3.4
4.3°
4.3d
4.3f
NOx
2.6
3.8
4.0
4.5°
4.0
4.0d
4.0f
Pounds
Net Reduction/LTO
HC
20.7
7.9
9.7
15.5
2.3
39.6
34.6
CO
32.6
28.9
21.7
28.6
11.1
45.9
45.8
NOx
17.9
9.3
9.7
12.4
1.4
5.6
9.8
Lifetime Net
Reduction/Unit
HC
139.7
53.4
86.9
122.1
42.2
385.8
337.8
CO
220.4
194.8
195.4
225.3
204.6
447.3
446.1
NOx
121.0
62.8
86.9
97.5
26.0
54.6
95.3
  JT8D  is  assumed  to  be  out  of  production and  replaced  by the CFM56.

  Useful  life  for  new engines is 15  years.

"Adjusted  to meet  standard.


  No data;  HC  and  CO  levels  are the  same as 1981 NME
  (Category 1  and  2)  and the NOx level is equal to the  standard.

i
  No data;  baseline emissions were estimated on the basis
  of the  RB211-22B.


  No data;  HC,  CO.,  and NOx levels are  equal to the standard.
                                                      B-4

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                                               Table B-3

                         Exhaust Emissions Reduction per Engine Resulting from the
                           1985 Retrofit Standard (Category 1 and 2 Technology)
Retrofitted engine lifetime is 10 years since most
engines have already expended some of their useful life.


Adjusted to meet standard.


Most of the engines will be new, therefore, the
full 15 year lifetime value is used.
                                                                                                           Tons
Engine
Model
JT8D-17
JT9D-7
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22
Pounds
Thrust
(000)
16
46.2
38.9
49.9
22.2
42
Impulse
1456
4598
3016
3867
1764
3502
LTOs/yr
2455
900
1200
1050
2455
1300
EPAP
(Unregulated)
HC CO
3.1
4.8
3.4
4.3
1.4
12.0
12.8
10.4
10.0
10.8
10.6
17.4
EPAP
(Regulated)
HC CO
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.7
5.2b
1.9
3.6
4.0
4.3b
4.3b
Pounds
Net Reduction/LTO
HC
3.8
21.6
9.7
15.9
2.3
39.6
CO
12.4
39.1
19.3
26.3
11.1
45.9
Lifetime Net
Reduction/Unit
HC CO
46.5 135.8
97.3
57.9
83.3
42.2°
257.2
175.9
115.8
138.1
204.6°
298.2
                                                   B-5

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                                    C-l
                              APPENDIX C

              Derivation of the Incremental Engine Costs
                Associated with the Proposed Standards
     The cost increments considered in this section are the main deter-
minants of selling price:  non-recurring costs, the increment in new
engine selling price because of increased complexity or more expensive
materials, and the parts cost of a retrofit kit.  These costs represent
the expenses and corporate profits which must be recovered by the engine
manufacturers.

     The incomplete cost estimates submitted by the manufacturers make
the use of several assumptions necessary.  The assumptions used tp
complete the 1981 NME and 1985 retrofit estimates are:

     1.   The JT8D retrofit unit cost was estimated based on
          experience with the smoke retrofit and assuming the
          only necessary change would be new fuel nozzles and
          minor modifications to the combustor liner; and

     2.   The CFM56 selling price increment and retrofit unit
          cost, as well as the R&D cost for the two RB211 dash
          numbers were estimated by comparing the engine simi-
          larities and degree of complexity with the CF6 engine
          families.

     3.   The manufacturer's submittal regarding the selling price
          increment and retrofit unit cost for the two RB211 engines
          included pro-rated non-recurring costs, therefore, these
          costs were re-evaluated to exclude this burden.

     The 1984 NME estimates were completed using the following assumptions:

     1.   The R&D for the JT9D-7 was reduced from the manu-
          facturers estimate of $100 million to $70 million
          because of a mutual benefit between similar engine
          families (as with the CF6 families);

     2.   The CF6-6 value for R&D represents the lower end
          of GE's estimate and the CF6-50 R&D represents
          the high end;

     3.   The R&D cost for the CFM56 is considered to be
          the same as the CF6-50; the incremental selling
          price is less since the engine is smaller;

-------
                                    C-2
     A.   The values for the two RB211 dash numbers were
          arbitrarily computed by averaging the JT9D-7
          and CF6-50 expenses; and

     5.   The JT10D values were estimated by comparing the
          similarities and degree of complexity with
          the JT9D-7 and CFM56.

Tables C-l and C-2 summarize the cost Information used In this study.

-------
                                   C-3
                            Table C-l

            Cost Increment Associated with 1981 NME and
       1985 Retrofit Standards (Category 1 and 2 Technology)
                     (In thousands of dollars)
Model
Non-Recurring
    Costs
JT8D
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22B
RB211-52A
15,000
16,000
24,000
8,000
8,000
8,000
io,oooa
io,oooa
Selling Price
Increment/Unit

     13
     50
     70
     10
     10
     ioa
Retrofit
Unit Cost

   25a
   90
  115
   90
   90
   60a
   31a
     TOTAL
    99,000
  Estimated.
                            Table  C-2

         Cost Increment Associated with 1984 NME Standards
                      (Category 3 Technology)

                     (In thousands of dollars)
          Model
           Non-Recurring
               Costs
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22
RB211-524
JT10D
70,000a
100,000
30,000a
40,000a
40,000a
55,000a
55,000a
50,000a
          Selling Price
          Increment/Unit

               190
               190
                70
                70
                50a
               130a
               130a
               120a
               TOTAL
             440 x 10
  Estimated.

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                                  D-l
                              APPENDIX D

                Derivation of Fuel Savings Associated
                      with the Proposed Standards
     In order to meet the standards under consideration, most manufacturers
will improve the combustion efficiency of their engines at idle power
from approximately 95 percent to essentially 100 percent.  This results
in a 5 percent improvement in idle fuel consumption for most engines.

     The General Electric engines complying with the 1981 NME and 1985
Retrofit Standards will experience a net increase in idle specific fuel
consumption (SFC) .  The use of sector burning (category 1) by these
engines causes a 10 percent decrease in component efficiency, which
coupled with the 5 percent benefit in combustion efficiency as described
above, yields a 5 percent overall penalty in idle SFC.  The 1984 newly
manufactured GE engines will use category 3 technology; accordingly,
they will be subject only to the 5 percent benefit in combustion efficiency.

     The useful life of new engines is 15 years.  Retrofitted engines
have a 10 year useful life with the exception of the CFM56, a new engine,
which has a useful life of 15 years.

     The gallons of fuel saved over an engine's useful life are calcu-
lated using the following equation:


     (//LTOs/yr) (useful lif e) (Mf Idle) (26/60) (+0. 05) / (6.7)           (1)


where:    1.  useful life is the number of years the engine will be in
              service;

          2.  M- Idle is the fuel flow in pounds per hour;

          3.  26/60 is the time in idle mode defined by EPA;

          4.  4^ 0.05 is the percent fuel benefit or penalty; and

          5.  6.7 is the weight of jet fuel in pounds per gallon.


          The dollar value of the fuel saved is found by:


                          (Equation 1)($0.33)                          (2)


where $0.33, including tax, represents a nominal value for jet fuel in
1976.

-------
                                  D-2
     The lifetime savings for each engine affected by the proposed
standards are given in Tables D-l and D-2.

-------
                                   D-3
                              Table  D-l

                       o
               Lifetime  Idle  Fuel Savings per Engine
                   (1981  NME and 1984 NME  Standard)
Engine
JT8D-17b
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22B
RB211-524
M- Idle
(Ibs/hr)
1150
1850
1800
1060
1210
600°
1475
1500C
LTOs/yr
2455
900
900
1200
1050
2455
1300
1300
Gallons
Saved (000)
27
81
79
±62d
±62d
±71d
93
95
Dollars
Saved (000)
9
27
26
+ 20'
+ 20
+ 23
31
31








 15 year useful life.


 1 percent improvement only  (smokeless  combustor  already better than
 average).


"Estimated by authors.


 GE engines experience a 5 percent  increase  in  idle  SFC  under the
 1981 NME Standard and a 5 percent  improvement  under the 1984 NME
 Standard.
"At $0.33 per gallon.

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                                   D-4
                              Table D-2
                       a
               Lifetime  Idle Fuel Savings per Engine
                      (1985  Retrofit Standard)
Engine
JT8Db
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22B
RB211-524
M Idle
(Ibs/yr)
1150
1850
1800
1060
1210
600°
1475
1500°
LTOs/yr
2455
900
900
1200
1050
2455
1300
1300
Gallons
Saved (000)
18
54
53
-42d
-42d
-71d
62
64
Dollars
Saved (000)
6
18
17
-13
-13
-23
21
21








 10 year useful life for all retrofitted engines  except  the  CFM56  which
 has a useful life of 15 years.

 1 percent improvement only (smokeless combustor  already better than
 average).

Q
 Estimated by authors.


 GE engines experience a 5 percent increase in fuel consumption when
 using stage combustion at idle.
'At $0.33 per gallon.

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                                  E-l



                              APPENDIX E

                 Fleet Projection and Engine Inventory


     There are three aircraft fleets of interest,  each associated with
one of the three dates of the standards:  1981 (NME, HC, CO), 1984 (NME,
NOx), and 1985 (Retrofit of pre-1981 engines to 1981 levels).  These
fleets are obtained from an aircraft projection (Reference 1) which is
described in terms of airframe classification (e.g., 3 engine wide body)
and production rate.  With certain simplifying assumptions, the numbers
of each kind of engine affected by the standards are found from the
fleet information.

     Table E-l through E-5 are amended versions of the original projection.
The significant alterations are:

     1.  Elimination of an early introduction date for engines complying
     with the NCE (newly certified engine) standards.   The progress of
     the NASA Quiet Clean Experimental Combustor Program and others
     suggest that there will be no newly certified engines prior to
     1990;

     2.  Delay in production of the new three engine super stretched
     body aircraft (i.e., B7N7, B7X7) until 1981;  and

     3.  Change of the dates which divide the fleet into the smaller
     segments subject to the different standards to reflect the newly
     proposed standards.

     Utilization of these tables is achieved by examining the "Net
in Fleet" row at the appropriate date.  In particular:

          Rule                     Date and Standard

     1985 Retrofit                 1985, (No Std)
     1981 NME                      1984, (NME-1981)
     1984 NME                      1989, (NME-1984)

     The 1985 Retrofit is self explanatory, but the others may not be.
The 1981 NME Standard is in effect for only three  years, until January 1,
1984, at which time it is replaced.  Thus, to enumerate that fleet, the
1984 date is chosen, when all affected engines are built.  The 1984 NME
Standard is indefinite in duration so for the purposes of calculation,
it is postulated that the non-recurring costs will be written off in
10 years of production.  However, inasmuch as the  projection does not go
to 1994, only 5 years are taken (1989) and that number doubled.

     Certain simplifying assumptions are also required.  The first has
already been mentioned:  a 10 year projection to 1994 is found by

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                                   E-2
doubling the 5 year projection to 1989.  The second is that each airframe
classification is associated with a specific engine or engines repre-
sentative of that class.  While certainly artificial, it is impossible
to predict with any certainty the number of alternate engines which may
be used in any airframe class.  The error is to a degree self compensating
since each time a given engine is replaced by an alternate in some
application, it may become an alternate for another engine in another
application.  The engine designations for the airframe classes are:

     1.  2 engine narrow body:  JT8D through 1983, CFM56 thereafter;

     2.  3 engine narrow body:  JT8D;

     3.  3 engine super stretched:  CFM56;

     4.  3 engine wide body:  CF6, RB211; and

     5.  4 engine wide body:  JT9D.

     For the 3 engine wide body classification, there are basically
three aircraft:  the DC-10-10, DC-10-30, and L1011.  These aircraft use
the CF6-6, CF6-50, and RB211, respectively.  It is assumed, arbitrarily,
that the fleet of this type is divided equally among those airframes
and, therefore, also among those engines.  As necessary, the RB211 and
JT9D families are assumed to be represented equally by their various
models.

     In summary, the engine inventories are given in Table E-6.

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                                                  Table E-l


Type:  2 engine narrow body

Year          1979    1980    1981    1982    1983    1984    1985    1986    1987    1988    1989    1990
Production
(No std) 37 32 0
(NME) 0 0 19
Attrition
(No std) 045
Net in' Fleet*
(No std) 684 721 749
(NME-1981) 000
(NME-1984) 0 0 0
00000000
14 5 14 16 16 76 76 76
4 7 20 20 20 80 80 80
744 740 733 713 693 673 593 513 433
19 33 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
00 0 14 30 46 122 198 274
* As of January 1

JT8D through 1983
CFM56 thereafter
                                                      E-3

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                                           Table E-2

Type: 3 engine narrow body

  Year    1979   1980    1981   1982    1983   1984    1985   1986    1987   1988    1989   1990

Production

(No std)
(NME)        00       00       00       00       00       0


Attrition

(No std)     5     22      63     48      23     20      32     32      32     92      92


Net in Fleet*
(No std)   840    835     813    750     702    679     659    627     595    563     471     379
(NME)               0       00       00       00       00       00
* As of January 1

JT8D
                                                 E-4

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Type: 3 engine super stretched body




  Year    1979   1980    1981   1982
                                           Table E-3
1983   1984
1985   1986
1987   1988
1989   1990
Production
(No std) 0
(NME) 0
Attrition
(No std)
Net in Fleet*
(No std) ,0
(NME-1981) 0
(NME-1984) 0

0
0



0
0
0

0
77

0

0
0
0

0
83

0

0
77
0

0
84

0

0
160
0

0
83

0

0
244
0

0
78

0

0
244
83

0
68

0

0
244
161

0 0
55 89

0 0

0 0
244 244
229 284

0
102

0

0
244
373






0
244
475
* As of January 1




Production starts 1980




CFM56 or JT10D
                                              E-5

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                                           Table E-4




Type: 3 engine wide body




  Year    1979   1980    1981   1982    1983   1984     1985    1986     1987   1988    1989   1990
Production
(No std) 22
(NME) 0
Attrition
(No std) 0
Net in Fleet*
(No std) 305
(NME-1981) 0
(NME-1984) 0

31
0

0

327
0
0

0
31

0

358
0
0

0
33

0

358
31
0

0
40

0

358
64
0

0
42

0

358
104
0

0
47

0

358
104
42

0
51

0

358
104
89

0
56

0

358
104
140

0
61

0

358
104
196

0
97

30

358
104
277






328
104
374
* As of January 1




CF6 or RB211
                                               E-6

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                                           Table E-5




Type: 4 engine wide body




  Year    1979   1980    1981   1982    1983   1984    1985   1986    1987    1988     1989    1990
Production
(No std) 17
(NME) 0
Attrition
(No std) 0
Net in Fleet*
(No std) 164
(NME- 1981) 0
(NME-1984) 0

20
0.

0

181
0
0

0
20

0

201
0
0

0
21

0

201
20
0

0
29

0

201
41
0

0
32

0

201
70
0

0
36

0

201
70
32

0 0
40 45

0 0

201 201
70 70
68 108

0
70

20

201
70
153

0
76

20

181
70
223






161
7®
299
* As of January 1




JT9D
                                               E-7

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       E-8








Table E-6




      STANDARD
Engine
JT8D-17
JT9D-7
JT9D-70
JT10D
CF6-6
CF6-50
CFM56
RB211-22B
RB211-524
1985 Retrofit
3399
804
0
0
358
358
78
358
0
1981 NME
76
140
0
0
104
104
732
52
52
1984 NME
0
892
892
1515
554
554
1515
277
277

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                                 E-9



                             REFERENCES

                             (APPENDIX E)
1.   Hunt, R.  1976.  SST emissions projection.  Environmental Protection
     Agency, AC 76-03.

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