Office of Transportation EPA420-S-04-002
and Air Quality April 2004
Light-Duty Automotive
Technology and
Fuel Economy Trends:
1975 Through 2004
Executive Summary
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EPA420-S-04-002
April 2004
Light-Duty
1975 Through
Karl H. Hellman
Robert M. Heavenrich
Advanced Technology Division
Office of Transportation and Air Quality
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
NOTICE
This Technical Report does not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions.
It is intended to present technical analysis of issues using data that are currently available.
The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate an exchange of
technical information and to inform the public of technical developments.
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Introduction
This report summarizes key fuel economy and technology usage trends related to model
year 1975 through 2004 light-duty vehicles sold in the United States. Light-duty vehicles are
those vehicles that EPA classifies as cars or light-duty trucks (sport utility vehicles, vans, and
pickup trucks with less than 8,500 pounds gross vehicle weight ratings).
Model year 2004 light-duty vehicles are estimated to average 20.8 miles per gallon (mpg).
The MY2004 average is within the 20.6 to 20.9 mpg range that has occurred for the past eight
years, but six percent below the 1987-88 peak of 22.1 mpg.
Since 1975, the fuel economy of the combined car and light truck fleet has moved
through four phases:
1. a rapid increase from 1975 continuing to the mid-1980s,
b. a slow increase extending into the late 1980s,
c. a gradual decline from then until the late 1990s, and
d. a period of relatively constant fuel economy since then.
The fuel economy values in this report are adjusted, based on 'real world' estimates
provided by the Federal government to consumers, and are about 15 percent lower than the fuel
economy values used by manufacturers and the Department of Transportation (DOT) for
compliance with the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program.
For model year 2004, light trucks are projected to account for 48 percent of all light-duty
vehicles. After over two decades of steady growth, the market share for light trucks has been
about half of the overall light-duty vehicle market since 2002. Most of this growth in the light
truck market has been led by the increase in the popularity of sport utility vehicles (SUVs), which
now account for more than one fourth of all new light-duty vehicles.
Model year 2004 light-duty vehicles are estimated to be heavier and more powerful than
in 2003. This continues a twenty-plus year trend of increasing vehicle weight and power due to
ongoing technological innovations commercialized by vehicle manufacturers in response to
consumer demands.
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Importance of Fuel Economy
Fuel economy continues to be a major area of public and policy interest for several
reasons, including:
1. Fuel economy is directly related to energy security because light-duty vehicles
account for approximately 40 percent of all U.S. oil consumption and much of this
oil is imported.
2. Fuel economy is directly related to the cost of fueling a vehicle and is of great
interest when oil and gasoline prices rise.
3. Fuel economy is directly related to emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide. Light-duty vehicles contribute about 20 percent of all U.S. carbon
dioxide emissions.
Characteristics of Light-Duty Vehicles for Three Model Years
(numbers are sales-weighted averages)
1975 1987 2004
Adjusted Fuel Economy (mpg) 13.1 22.1 20.8
Weight (pounds) 4060 3220 4066
Horsepower 137 118 208
0 to 60 Time (seconds) 14.1 13.1 10.0
Percent Truck Sales 19% 28% 48%
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Highlight #1: Fuel Economy Has Been Relatively Constant For Several Years.
After a decade of decline from 1988 to 1997, fuel economy has been constant for several
years. The average fuel economy for all model year 2004 light-duty vehicles is estimated
to be 20.8 mpg- 6 percent lower than thepeakvalue of 22.1 mpg achieved in 1987-88.
Average model year 2004 fuel economy is 24.6 mpg for cars and 17.9 mpg for light
trucks.
Since 1975, the fuel economy of the combined car and light truck fleet has moved
through several phases: (1) a rapid increase from 1975 to the mid-1980s, (2) a slow increase
extending into the late 1980s, (3) a decline from the peak in the late 1980s, and (4) since then a
period of relatively constant overall fleet fuel economy. Viewing new cars and trucks separately,
the three-year moving average fuel economy for cars has increased 1.0 mpg since 1991, but that
for trucks has been relatively constant.
Adjusted Fuel Economy by Model Year
(Three-Year Moving Average)
MPG
30
25
20
15
10
Cars
Trucks
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Model Year
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Highlight #2: Trucks Represent About Half of New Vehicle Sales.
Sales of light trucks, which include sport utility vehicles (SUVs), vans, and pickup trucks
are now projected to make up 48 percent of the U.S. light-duty vehicle market — more
than twice their market share in 1984.
Growth in the light truck market has been led recently by the increase in the market share
of SUVs. The SUV market share increased by more than a factor often, from less than two
percent of the overall new light-duty vehicle market in 1975, to over 25 percent of the market
now. Over the same period, the market share for vans increased by about three percent, while that
for pickups remained relatively constant. Between 1975 and 2004, market share for new
passenger cars and station wagons decreased from 81 to 52 percent. For model year 2004, cars
are estimated to average 24.6 mpg, vans 20.0 mpg, SUVs 17.9 mpg, and pickups 17.0 mpg. The
increased market share of light trucks, which in recent years have averaged more than six mpg
less than cars, accounted for much of the decline in fuel economy of the overall new light-duty
vehicle fleet from 1988 to 1997.
Sales Fraction by Vehicle Type
(Three-Year Moving Average)
100%
80%
60%
Market Share
40%
20%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Model Year
IV
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Highlight #3: As a Result of Technological Innovation, Vehicle Weight Has Increased and
Performance Has Improved While Fuel Economy Has Remained Constant.
Manufacturers continue to apply technological innovations to the new light-duty vehicle
fleet to increase light-duty vehicle weight and acceleration performance in response to
consumer demands. EPA estimates that had the new 2004 light-duty vehicle fleet had the
same distribution of performance and the same distribution of weight as in 1987, it could
have achieved about 20 percent higher fuel economy.
Technologies-such as engines with more valves and more sophisticated fuel injection
systems, and transmissions with lockup torque converters and extra gears-continue to penetrate
the new light-duty vehicle fleet. The trend has clearly been to apply these new technologies to
accommodate increases in average new vehicle weight, power, and performance while
maintaining a constant level of fuel economy. This is reflected by heavier average vehicle weight,
rising average horsepower, and faster average 0 to 60 mile-per-hour acceleration time.
Weight and Performance
(Three Year Moving Average)
4500
Weight (Ibs.
0 to 60 Time (sec.)
4000
3500
3000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Model Year
V
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Important Notes With Respect to the Data Used in This Report
Unless otherwise indicated, the fuel economy values in this report are based on laboratory
data and have been adjusted downward by about 15 percent, so that this data is equivalent to the
real world estimates provided to consumers on new vehicle labels, in the EPA/DOE Fuel
Economy Guide, and in EPA's Green Vehicle Guide. These adjusted fuel economy values are
significantly lower than those used for compliance with CAFE standards as, in addition to the 15
percent downward adjustment for real world driving, they also exclude credits for alternative fuel
capability and test procedure changes that are included in the CAFE data reported by the DOT.
The data presented in this report were tabulated on a model year basis, but several of the
figures in this report use three-year moving averages which effectively smooth the trends, and
these three-year moving averages are tabulated at their midpoint. For example, the midpoint for
model years 2002, 2003, and 2004 is model year 2003. All average fuel economy values were
calculated using harmonic, rather than arithmetic averaging.
The source database used to generate the tables and graphs in this report for all years,
other than MY2003, was frozen in October 2003. When comparing data in this report with those
in previous reports in this series, please note that revisions are made in the data for some recent
model years for which more complete and accurate sales and fuel economy have become
available.
Through model year 2002, the fuel economy, vehicle characteristics, and sales data used
for this report were obtained from the most complete databases used for CAFE standards and
"gas guzzler" compliance purposes.
Where available, the model year 2003 data in this report is based on CAFE compliance
data submitted to EPA by March 31, 2004. For those MY2003 cases for which compliance data
was yet not available, EPA used data that included confidential sales projections submitted to the
Agency by the automotive manufacturers, but updated the sales data to take into account
information reported in trade publications.
For model year 2004, EPA has exclusively used confidential projected sales data that the
auto companies are required to submit to the Agency.
Over the last five years, the final fuel economy values have varied from 0.1 mpg lower to
0.3 mpg higher compared to the original estimates based exclusively on projected sales.
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For More Information
Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 through 2004 (EPA420-R-
O4-001) is available electronically on the Office of Transportation and Air Quality's (OTAQ)
Web site at:
www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm
Printed copies are available from the OTAQ library at:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Transportation and Air Quality Library
2000 Traverwood Drive
Ann Arbor, MI 48105
(734)214-4311
A copy of the Fuel Economy Guide giving city and highway fuel economy data for individual
models is available at:
www. fueleconomy. gov
or by calling the U.S. Department of Energy's National Alternative Fuels Hotline at (800) 423-
1363.
EPA's Green Vehicle Guide provides information about the air pollution emissions and fuel
economy performance of individual models is available on EPA's web site at:
www.epa.gov/greenvehicles
For information about the Department of Transportation (DOT) Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFE) program, including a program overview, related rulemaking activities,
research, and summaries of individual manufacturers' fuel economy performance since 1978, see:
www.nhtsa.dot.gov/cars/rules/cafe/index.htm
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