c/EPA
             United States
             Environmental Protection
             Agency
             Administration And
             Resources Management
             (PM-225)
A Preliminary Analysis
of the Public Costs of
Environmental Protection:
1981-
                                    Printed on Recycled Paper

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A Preliminary Analysis of the Public Costs of
Environmental  Protection:  1981-2000.
Assistant Administrator's Foreword

   Not long ago, America was facing a crisis. Our skies were clouded with black
industrial smoke, our waterways fouled by wastes and chemical residue, our land
defaced by uncontrolled litter, and our wildlife and drinking water poisoned by
harmful pesticides. Slowly, Americans began to realize that the landscape and natural
resources which sustain them were being degraded. The Environmental Protection
Agency was created in 1970 to respond to this crisis.

   Without a doubt, our nation has taken giant strides since then. We now enjoy
healthier air and cleaner water in many places. These gains have come at a price.
Government, industry, and individuals have spent hundreds of billions on environ-
mental protection. And while our investment in facilities and equipment has been
heavy, and there has been significant improvement in environmental conditions, our
needs continue to grow. Widespread public support for environmental progress is
prompting increases in services and facilities particularly at the local level.

   Many factors exacerbate this situation. Fiscal constraints hamper government's
ability to finance additional investments. Many environmental facilities need to be
repaired, replaced, or modernized. Environmental demands are competing for public
resources with other services such as education, health, fire, and police protection.

   In the following report, EPA compares actual and projected public sector costs of
complying with federal environmental  regulations to financial resources currently
available to federal, state, and local governments. The report examines actual costs
between 1981 and 1987 and estimates costs to the year 2000. It is one of a series of EPA
studies examining the financial impacts of environmental programs.

   Perhaps the most important finding in this report is the projection of significant
differences between the future cost of environmental services and the funds currently
expended to provide them. The differences indicate that an important new environ-
mental challenge is emerging.

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   This finding also indicates that traditional roles performed by the public sector to
finance environmental services are changing. Society's failure to react to changes in
government responsibilities and seek alternative technical and financial solutions may
result in a shortage of resources necessary to meet all our needs. Just as this nation did
twenty years ago, we must explore innovative solutions to a difficult problem. We need
to tap the experience and expertise of all our sectors, not just in government, but also
in the private sector. After all, everyone benefits from the conservation of natural
resources.

   As EPA prepares to celebrate its 20th anniversary, the Agency is taking time to
reflect on what we have accomplished and what we must plan in the future. This report
is part of our forward thinking. By analyzing past trends and estimating future patterns,
A Preliminary Analysis of the Public Costs of Environmental Protection: 1981-2000
identifies issues which require our attention now and well into the next decade.
                                                       Charles
                                                         Printed on Recycled Paper

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A Preliminary Analysis of the Public Costs of Environmental Protection: 1981-2000
Table  of Contents
Executive Summary

   Purpose of the Study                                               i
   What Costs are Examined?                                          i
   Overall Spending will Increase                                      ii
   EPA Expenditures will Decline                                      ii
   State Costs are Projected to Grow                                    ii
   Local Share of Spending will Increase                                ii
   Local Demands for Capital could Double (1981-2000)                   iii
   Household Costs may Increase Dramatically                           iii
   Where do we go from here?                                        iii

Assumptions for Projections                                      iv

Chapter 1 - Overview: The Cost of Environmental Protection     1

   The Cost of Current Environmental Regulations and Services              1
      Expenditure Trends by Environmental Program                      3
      Environmental Expenditures by Level of Government                 6
   Additional Local Costs of New Regulations                            9
   Total Local Expenditures by Media for the Year 2000                    12

Chapter 2 - Impact of Spending for Environmental
Protection on  Capital Markets                                    15

   Capital Requirements of Environmental Regulations                     15
   Substitution of Local for Federal Capital                              19
   Financing Local Environmental Facilities                              19
   Impact on Capital Formation                                        22

Chapter 3 - Impact of Environmental
Spending on Households                                         27

   Household Costs of Environmental Programs                           29
   Household Payments by City Size to Maintain Current Levels of
      of Environmental Quality                                       29
   Household Payments for New Regulations                             29
   Household Payments for Environmental Programs
      Compared to Income                                           39
   Household Payments by Program                                    3 \

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Chapter 4 - Conclusions                                       35

Appendix 1 - Methodology                                    39

   Definition of Expenditures                                      39
   Which Environmental Services, Regulations, and Sectors are Included?     39
   Calculating Expenditures to Maintain Current Levels of
      Environmental Quality                                      40
   Calculating Local Environmental Costs Associated with
      New Regulations                                           42
   How Future Costs were Derived                                  42

Appendix 2 - List of Environmental Regulations Applicable
to Local Governments But Not Included in the Cost Estimates   45

Appendix 3 - Tables of Data                                   47

Appendix 4 - Differences in Methodology and Content
Between the Municipal Sector Study and This Report           57

Appendix 5 - Average Annual Household User Charges for
Environmental Services in 1987 (1988 Dollars)                  59

Appendix 6 - Sources of Data for Figures Used in Reports       61

End Notes                                                   63

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A Preliminary Analysis of the Public Costs of Environmental Protection: 1981-2000
Executive  Summary
   Since the early 1970s, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
has overseen a national mandate to restore and protect our water, land, and
air resources. In this massive undertaking, EPA has relied heavily on state
and local governments to help administer programs and to expend resources
to comply with requirements. However, the expanded programs and tight-
ened controls of the environmental legislation enacted in the 1980s challenge
our ability to pay for future environmental needs.

Purpose of the Study

   This study documents the costs of environmental protection for EPA, the
states, and local governments and uses these data to:

• Examine differences between current  expenditures  and future costs of
   environmental protection;

• Assess trends in the distribution of costs among EPA, the states, and local
   governments;

• Identify the cost impact of environmental policies on local governments,
   capital markets, and households.

What Costs are Examined?

   This report examines the public costs of environmental protection over
the period 1981-1987 and projects them to the year 2000. These projections are
estimates of the future costs of maintaining existing environmental stan-
dards, assuming the same level of quality as in 1987. In addition, the report
examines the local costs of selected new environmental regulations and
programs that local governments will bear in the future.

   While investments in environmental quality yield substantial benefits,
this report focuses solely on the costs of providing environmental services.
For this reason, no attempt is made to place a value on such benefits as
reduced incidence of disease and  death, improved fishing and shellfish
yields, expanded recreational opportunities, and strengthened local econo-
mies.

   The report complements the work of the Municipal Sector Study recently
completed by EPA.1 The Sector Study examined the future costs of 22 new en-
vironmental regulations and their impacts on municipalities. Both studies
will serve as building blocks for the Agency's upcoming "Cost of A Clean En-
vironment" report.2

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                  Overall Spending will Increase
                     In 1987, EPA, the states, and local governments spent about $40 billion for
                  environmental protection. If recent trends continue, they will need to spend
                  approximately $61 billion annually by the year 2000.
                     Spending trends reveal two potential cost gaps. The first, about $15.6
                  billion a year by the year 2000, is the amount of EPA, state and local govern-
                  ment spending needed, in addition to 1987 expenditures, to maintain 1987
                  levels of environmental quality. The second, $5.3 billion a year by the year
                  2000, is the amount of local government spending needed to comply with
                  selected new environmental regulations examined in this study.
                     Together these gaps represent a difference of nearly $21 billion between
                  what governments spent in 1987 and what we project they will need to spend
                  by 2000 for environmental protection. The gap could narrow if we are more
                  efficient in meeting environmental goals. However, these estimates are also
                  conservative in that they do not include the costs to EPA and the states of new
                  regulations, the costs associated with future Congressional mandates, and
                  the growing number of new state and local environmental  mandates.

                  EPA Expenditures will Decline

                     EPA expenditures are projected to decline by about one-third, from $6.3
                  billion in 1981 to $4.3 billion in 2000. EPA's share of spending on the environ-
                  ment is projected to drop from 13 percent to 8 percent between 1987 and 2000.
                  This drop is due largely to the Congressionally mandated phasing-out of
                  EPA grants to build wastewater treatment plants.

                  State Costs are Projected to Grow

                     Although relatively little is known about future state outlays for environ-
                  mental programs, a recent EPA study projects that in 1995 the states will need
                  an additional $309 million to administer drinking water and wastewater pro-
                  grams. The study's analysis suggests that by the year 2000, the states will
                  need to spend more than twice the amount spent in 1987 to administer water
                  programs.3 State administrative costs could triple by 2000 if air and solid
                  waste programs impose similar demands.

                  Local Share of Spending will Increase

                     Local spending is projected to increase significantly by the turn of the
                  century. In 1981, local spending was about $26 billion, or 76 percent of the
                  public share of environmental costs. By the year 2000, localities are expected
                  to spend over $48 billion just to maintain 1987 levels of environmental qual-
                  ity and are projected to bear  87 percent of public costs for environmental
                  protection.
11

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Local Demands for Capital could Double (1981-2000)

   A key issue in examining the impact of environmental spending on capi-
tal markets is the ability of local governments to support higher levels of
capital formation. We project that annual local demands for capital to main-
tain current levels of environmental quality could double from about $8
billion in 1981 to over $16 billion in 2000. Additional demands for capital
imposed by new regulations could add more than $3 billion a year by 2000.
Preliminary EPA analysis indicates that increased levels of capital formation
may be difficult for many small and medium-size cities.4

Household Costs may Increase Dramatically

   The annual cost of environmental programs for the average household is
projected to increase by 54 percent from $419 in 1987 to $647 in 2000. Over the
same  period, however, household costs for small cities  are expected to
increase more dramatically. In cities with fewer than 500 people, costs could
more than double, from $670 in 1987 to $1,580 in 2000.
   The financial impact of environmental costs on households can be exam-
ined by measuring costs as a percentage of household income. The results
show a significant impact on households in small cities (less than 500 popu-
lation), for whom expenditures are expected to increase from 2.8 percent to
5.6 percent of household income between 1987 and 2000.  On average, the
impact is much less for households in  all other city size  categories, with
projected increases of about 0.2 percent to 0.7 percent of household income
by the year 2000.

Where do we go from here?
   The growing costs of environmental protection require a re-examination
of how the nation finances and pays for such investments. The difference be-
tween current and future needs and current spending clearly calls for more
innovative approaches, especially at the local level. We need to take a fresh
look at our requirements as well as the financing and management options
available to meet them.
   EPA has developed a number of new initiatives to help address these
challenges. These include pollution prevention, public-private partnerships
and other types of alternative financing, and technology development and
transfer. The Agency has designed these initiatives to support state and local
efforts to meet their environmental responsibilities. A theme common to
these initiatives, is that they seek to involve and tap all available resources,
both public and private in working to this goal.
                                                                in

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                     Assumptions for  Projections


                         The report projects expenditures to the year 2000. All cost figures in the report (past or
                     projected) are presented in 1988 dollars unless otherwise noted.

                         Because of the long timeframe, uncertainties exist about what environmental regula-
                     tions will be implemented and the cost of their implementation. Moreover, rules under de-
                     velopment may change prior to final promulgation, resulting in costs different from the
                     original projections.  Because of these uncertainties, we made a number of assumptions
                     about the future costs of existing and new regulations. Readers should keep the following
                     assumptions in mind:


                     Existing Regulations

                     •  Future costs were estimated by regressing five years of historical trends against time.
                         Future costs were projected for each medium.5

                     •  If historical data did not reveal a definitive trend, a flat spending pattern was projected
                         based on the last year of actual data.

                     •  Projections assume the current level of compliance. If compliance levels change, costs
                         may be affected by changed levels of investment in pollution abatement and control.

                     •  Estimated costs for drinking water and solid waste cover the delivery of services as well
                         as assurance of quality.  For example, drinking water costs include those to upgrade
                         pipes and pumps as well as costs to meet regulatory requirements.


                     New Legislation

                     •  Estimated local costs are derived from preliminary analysis for Regulatory Impact
                         Analyses prepared for EPA program offices. (No comparable information is available
                         on EPA and state costs for new regulations.)

                     •  Demands for capital due to new regulations are shown in a lump sum in the year the
                         capital will first be needed, or spread equally over a short timeframe. This assumption
                         was made because of timing uncertainties associated with regulatory implementation
                         and subsequent needs for capital.
                         Data collection, projections, analyses and graphical interpretations were conducted by
                     Apogee Research Inc. Estimates of the costs of all new regulations were provided by the
                     Environmental Law Institute. Editing, layout, and final preparation for printing this report
                     were conducted by American Management Systems, Inc.
IV

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 1
Overview: The Cost of
Environmental  Protection
   Since the early 1970s, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has
overseen the national mandate to restore and protect water, land, and air
resources.  Carrying out this mandate has proven expensive for all levels of
government.

   Faced with escalating environmental protection costs in competition with
the fiscal pressures attributable to other public programs, governments may
be limited in their ability to finance all the environmental protection activities
anticipated by Congress. The largest problems lie with local governments that
have low economies of scale in providing environmental services and limited
ability to raise large amounts of capital.

   Under Congress' statutory direction, the EPA has expended considerable
resources to develop the components of broad national programs, including
minimum national standards for environmental quality, permit systems, en-
forcement procedures, and remediation protocols.  By offering grants and
other forms of assistance, EPA has encouraged states to help implement our
national programs. Most states, however, also have committed their own re-
sources  to administer the basic programs and others  that reach beyond
minimum  federal standards. Despite federal and state  grants to localities,
local governments that provide drinking water, wastewater, and solid waste
management services have contributed much of the cost to build capital facili-
ties and almost all of the cost to operate and maintain them.

   This chapter provides an overview of environmental expenditures from
1981  to 2000, both to maintain current levels of environmental quality and to
meet standards associated with new regulations. Expenditures are examined
by program and by sector.6

The Cost of Current Environmental Regulations and Services

   In 1987, EPA, states, and local governments spent an estimated $40 billion
for environmental protection (see Figure 1). If recent trends continue, environ-
mental expenditures by all levels of government are expected to increase to
$55.6 billion in the year 2000 just to maintain current levels of environmental
quality.  Extending current trends assumes, of course, that recent levels of
compliance and rates of capital expansion and replacement remain steady
throughout the projection period.

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                        Figure 1
Public* Expenditures to  Maintain  Current (1987)
          Levels of Environmental Quality
  56

  54

  52 h

  50

  48

  46

  44

  42

  40

  38

  36

  34 P
    In Billions of 1988 Dollars
  32
Actual
Projected
            1987 Level of Spending
           J	i	L
                            i  i	i  i
   '81  '83  '85 '87  '89  '91  '93  '95  '97  '99

               FISCAL YEAR
              * EPA, State and Local Government
$15.6 Billion
  Additional
EPA, State and
    Local
 Government
 Spending to
   Maintain
Current Levels
     of
Environmental
   Quality.
Source: See Appendix 6

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   The capital portion of these expenditure estimates may be low if, as some
experts argue, future spending will have to be higher to recover from the
effects of deferred maintenance and rehabilitation. For this report, we as-
sumed that rehabilitation and maintenance of capital plants would be under-
taken at the same rate as in recent years.7 If spending for maintenance and
rehabilitation has indeed been inadequate in the past, then incorporating the
historical trend of capital outlays in the forecast of future costs embodies the
assumption that the backlog of infrastructure rehabilitation needs will con-
tinue to grow. Capital expenditure estimates are particularly important for
drinking water and water quality because of the large amount of capital plants
associated with these services.

Expenditure Trends by Environmental Program

   With the exception of the air quality program, expenditures to maintain
current levels of environmental quality have steadily increased in the 1980s
and are expected to continue to do so in the 1990s (see Figure 2).8 Rapid growth
in spending for  "other" environmental programs is attributable largely to
steady increases in Superfund program activities.9 Spending in some pro-
grams, however, will increase more substantially than in others (see Figure 3).
Spending for drinking water and solid waste programs will increase as a per-
centage of total spending;  water quality expenditures will decrease  as a
percentage of the total.

   Water Quality. In 1981, governments devoted roughly $16 billion a year, or
46 percent of all environmental expenditures, to restore the quality of surface
and ground water. Most of the $16 billion was used to build  and operate
municipal wastewater treatment plants, In the 1990s, increases in national
spending for water quality are not expected to keep pace with rates of growth
in other environmental programs. Thus, compared to its 46 percent share in
1981, water quality expenditures could drop to a 36 percent share of environ-
mental expenditures by the  year 2000. Future water quality expenditures to
maintain current levels of water quality will be dominated by the costs of
building new or upgrading existing facilities to provide secondary treatment
as required in the Clean Water Act (CWA). EPA estimated in 1988 that $83.5
billion in  capital expenditures would be required to bring all municipal
wastewater treatment facilities into compliance with minimum national stan-
dards.10

   Drinking Water. In 1981, $12 billion, or 35 percent of all environmental ex-
penditures, were spent on drinking water. These expenditures are expected
to nearly double to $22 billion a year by 2000 and to account for 40 percent of
total environmental expenditures.  Much of this increase is attributable to
capital replacement and expansion.

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                        Figure 2
 Public* Expenditures to Maintain Current (1987)
         Levels  of Environmental Quality
     In Billions of 1988 Dollars
   60
   50
   40
   30
   20
   10
    0
              Actual  i Projected
                                SOLID WASTE
WATER QUALITY
                   DRINKING WATER
    '81   '83  '85  '87  '89   '91  '93  '95   '97   '99


Source: See Appendix 6
 * EPA, State and Local Government
  Includes Costs to Deliver Services

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                      Figure 3
   Distribution of  Public* Expenditures
    to  Maintain Current  (1987)  Levels
          of Environmental  Quality
      Air 3%
Water Quality 46%
Drinking Water 35%



   Others 2%


  Solid Waste 14%
                                     1981
                                  $35 Billion
      Air 2%
Water Quality 41%
                   Drinking Water 38%
                     Others 4%
 Solid Waste 15%
                                     1987
                                  $40  Billion
     Air 3%
Water Quality 46%
 Drinking Water 40%





   Others 7%


 Solid Waste 15%
                                      2000
$55 Billion
      * EPA, State and Local Governments in 1988 Dollars
        Includes Costs to Deliver Services
                                      Source: See Appendix 6

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   Solid Waste. Garbage collection and the construction and operation of solid
waste management units (mostly landfills) accounted for $5 billion to $6
billion a year (or 14 percent of environmental expenditures by governments)
in 1981. The low priority of solid waste management relative to other local
environmental services is due, in part, to the shifting of resources from regu-
lation of solid to hazardous waste, with passage of the Resource Conservation
and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA). EPA was authorized in Subtitle D of RCRA
to provide financial and technical assistance to the states and local govern-
ments to develop solid waste management plans. However, federal funds for
Subtitle D were not appropriated after 1980.

   Costs will escalate in the 1990s, so that by the year 2000, solid waste spend-
ing could  account for  15 percent of environmental expenditures. It is likely
that  these estimates are conservative,  given the extent of the solid waste
disposal problem in the United States. Approximately 450,000 tons of waste
are being generated every day, 80 percent of which are being disposed of in
landfills that are rapidly reaching the end of their capacity.11 Increased siting
problems are leading to much higher  disposal costs. It takes four to five years
to implement plans for a sanitary landfill, and demand far exceeds supply of
these facilities. On average, disposal costs in 1987 were four times the cost in
1977, having increased from $3 or $4 per ton in 1977 to $20 or more in 1987.
Waste-to-energy facilities and incinerators are increasingly favored by local
governments for solid waste management. However, they are more expensive
to build and operate, and face siting problems similar to those of landfills.

   Air Quality. Government costs to administer air quality control programs
accounted for 3% of all environmental expenditures in 1981. However, by the
year 2000, solid waste expenditures are estimated to be four times those for air
quality programs. In the absence of renewed programs or changes in recent
rates of compliance, air quality spending is artificially projected  as  flat
through the turn of the century.

Environmental Expenditures by Level of Government

   The future cost of maintaining current levels of environmental quality (the
shaded area shown on Figure 1) falls  unevenly on different levels of govern-
ment, with municipalities expected  to underwrite a growing  share in the
future. While EPA expenditures are  expected to decline by a third between
1981 and 2000, local spending could almost double (see Figure 4).

   EPA. EPA expenditures to maintain current programs are expected to
decline from $6.3 billion a year in 1981 to $4.3 billion a year in 2000. This drop
—from 18 per cent of national environmental expenditures in 1981 to less than
8 percent in 2000 — is attributable largely to the phasing-out of federal grants

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                         Figure 4
 Public Expenditures by Level of Government to Maintain
      Current (1987)  Levels of Environmental Quality

       In Billions  of 1988 Dollars
  20 H
  10
   0
      '81  '83  '85  '87  '89  '91   '93  '95  '97  '99

Local
State
                                          EPA
Source: See Appendix 6

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                    to build wastewater treatment plants. EPA's Construction Grants program
                    will decline from the $1.2 billion appropriated in 1989 and projected for 1990
                    to zero in 1991.  Federal grants to help capitalize state wastewater treatment
                    revolving loan funds will peak at $2.4 billion in 1991 and decline to zero by
                    1995. There is no comparable federal assistance program in solid waste, and
                    none anticipated within EPA or the Congress.   EPA grants  to states to
                    administer the Safe Drinking Water Act have declined by 27 percent in real
                    terms, from a high of about $56 million in 1979 to an estimated $41 million in
                    1989.

                        State Governments. The Bureau of the Census estimates that state outlays to
                    administer environmental programs, comply with them where applicable,
                    and provide assistance to localities for their compliance, have grown slowly
                    from just under $2 billion a year in 1981 to about $2.1 billion in 1987. The
                    Census data are roughly comparable to the results of a recent survey of state
                    environmental expenditures that reported 1986 state outlays of $1.9 billion for
                    air pollution, drinking water, hazardous waste, indoor air pollution, marine
                    and coastal initiatives, pesticides, solid waste, and water quality.12 If current
                    trends continue, state  environmental expenditures could reach $2.6 billion a
                    year in 2000. This represents a decrease in the share of total public sector en-
                    vironmental expenditures accounted for by states, from 6 percent in 1981 to 5
                    percent in 2000. However, this study does not take into account the growing
                    demands the states face in responding to new water quality and drinking
                    water legislation. A recent EPA study found that state environmental depart-
                    ments as a whole will have a shortfall of $309 million in 1995 alone to admini-
                    ster water programs.13

                        From 1982 to 1986, EPA  grants to states funded 47 percent of state  air
                    quality control programs, 38 percent of water quality programs, and 54
                    percent of hazardous and solid waste control programs.14 The remainder of
                    state program budgets are financed by fees, dedicated taxes, and general tax
                    revenues. Of particular note, is the fact that grants to states have generally
                    declined in real dollars as state program costs have increased, the net result
                    being a precipitous drop in the proportion of state environmental budgets
                    covered by EPA grants over the period (see Table 1).

                        Local Governments. Annual environmental expenditures by local govern-
                    ments are expected to nearly double by the year 2000, assuming there will be
                    no effort to raise standards to improve environmental quality beyond current
                    levels. If environmental standards are enforced, local capital expenditures
                    will also have to double to compensate for scheduled reductions in federal
                    grants. Operating expenses paid entirely by localities also are growing due to
                    the use of more advanced chemical and energy-intensive treatment technolo-
                    gies. In 1981, localities spent about $26 billion (76 percent) of the public share
                    of environmental costs to comply with federal mandates (see Figure 5).  By
8

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                             Table 1
       State Budgets and EPA Grants to States for Air, Water,
                  and Hazardous Waste Programs

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Total State Budgets
(in millions of 1987 dollars)
Air
$210
$213
$206
$202
$213
Water a
$23
$274
$296
$326
$336
Hazardous
Waste b
$64
$76
$110
$146
$169
EPA Grants as a Percentage
of State Environmental Budgets
Air
49%
45%
46%
48%
46%
Water a
49%
38%
35%
34%
33%
Hazardous
Waste b
76%
66%
47%
41%
40%
 Source:   Congressional Budget Office, Environmental Federalism:  Allocating Responsibilities for
        Environmental Protection, Staff Working Paper (September 1988).


 " Includes water quality programs; some drinking water programs may be excluded.

  Includes both hazardous and solid waste programs.
1987, these communities were spending $33 billion and the local share had
grown to more than 82 percent. By the year 2000, localities are projected to
spend over $48 billion and bear more than 87 percent of the public cost of
environmental programs just to maintain current standards.

Additional Local Costs of New Regulations

   The costs to local governments associated with new regulations are pro-
jected to reach $5.3 billion by the year 2000 (see Figure 6).15 The report assumes
that costs of municipal waste combustion air standards, $2.5 billion, would be
incurred in 1992, resulting in a large peak in that year. A more likely scenario
is that these costs will be more evenly distributed over several years.

   The $5.3 billion is conservative, reflecting only a portion of the costs of
federal environmental regulations that will take effect over the next five to ten
years. It does not include any programs envisioned by Congress beyond 1987,
and none of the growing  number of new state or local environmental man-
dates.

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                        FIGURE 5
      Percentage of Public  Expenditures by Level of
       Government to Maintain Current (1987) Level
               of Environmental Quality
      LOCAL 76%
                  STATE 6%

                     EPA 18%
           1981
                              Total Spending
                                 $35 Billion
      LOCAL 82%
                                    1987
     Total Spending
        $40 Billion
     LOCAL 87%
                     STATE 5%

                      EPA 8%
           2000
Total Estimated Spending
        $55 Billion
  Source: See Appendix 6
10

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                     FIGURE 6
 Local Government  Expenditures
    In Billions of 1988 Dollars
                      1987 Level of Spending
                                        $5.3 Billion

                                       Additional Local
                                         Spending to
                                         Comply with
                                        New Standards
                                       $15.8 Billion
                                       Additional Local
                                        Spending to
                                       Maintain Current
                                       Level of Quality
   '81  '83  '85  '87 '89  '91  '93 '95  '97  '99
Source:  See Appendix 6
                                                    11

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                    Water Quality

                       Local costs of new water quality regulations will average $2.6 billion per
                    year in the 1990s (see Figure 7). Most of these new costs are for building new
                    or upgrading existing facilities to meet the secondary treatment requirements
                    of the Clean Water Act. EPA estimated in 1988 that $83.5 billion would be
                    required to bring all municipal wastewater treatment facilities into compli-
                    ance with minimum national standards.16

                    Drinking Water

                    Because the program initiated by the 1986 Amendments to the Safe Drinking
                    Water Act (SOWA) has been slow getting started, the costs of these new regu-
                    lations will be relatively low in the early 1990s, averaging $36 million a year.
                    By 1994, however, costs are projected to jump to $539 million as the capital
                    costs associated with these regulations start to be incurred. For the rest of the
                    1990's, annual costs will average $830 million, dropping to  $500 million by
                    2000.

                    Solid Waste

                       New regulations included in the study significantly increase estimated
                    solid waste expenditures.  In 1992, for example, costs associated with  new
                    regulations are estimated at $3 billion, almost half of the $7 billion spent to
                    maintain current environmental standards. This large increase is mostly due
                    to capital costs associated with municipal waste combustion air standards. It
                    is assumed that all of these municipal waste combustion capital costs, $2.5 bil-
                    lion, will be incurred in 1992. For the rest of the 1990s, costs of new regulations
                    are about $1.2 billion each year.

                       Local solid waste management is a likely focus of Congress in the 1990s and
                    the potential for costly new regulations is great. Concerns about hazardous
                    residue from the incineration of municipal solid waste have already led Con-
                    gress to consider regulating municipal ash as a hazardous waste. Potential
                    costs for local governments would be very high. Also, the outcome of EPA's
                    investigation of regulatory alternatives to control air emissions from munici-
                    pal waste combustion will be an important determinant of future costs to local
                    governments for disposal of solid waste.

                    Total Local Expenditures by Media for the Year 2000

                       Adding the local costs of new regulations to the costs of maintaining cur-
                    rent levels of environmental quality results in a small change in the proportion
                    spent for each environmental program between 1987 and 2000 (see Table 2).
12

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                              Figure 7
Local Government  Expenditures  by  Media
     DRINKING WATER
   In Bllllont of 1988 Dollar!
  20 -
  16
      Actual
            Projected
           1987 LEVEL OF SPENDING
                            > $0.6 Billion
                             $6.9 Billion
WATER  QUALITY
                                    In Blllloni of 1088 Dollar!
  '81 '83 '86 '87 '89 '91 '93 '96  '97 '99
       SOLID WASTE
   In Blllloni of 1988 Dollar!
  20
  10
       Actual
           Projected
                                                              $3.0 Billion
                                                              $6.7 Billion
                                   '81  '83 '86 '87 '89 '91 '93 '96 '97
                                                        Additional Local
                                                       Spending to Comply
                                                           with N ew
                                                         Environ me n tal
                                                           Standards
                            \ $1.4 Billion

                            } $2.2 Billion
   •81 '83  '86 '87  '89 '91  '93 '96  '97 '99
                  Additional Local
                Government Spending
                 to Maintain Current
                     Level of
                   Environmental
                     Quality
                                 Source:  See Appendix 6
                                                                        13

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                    The most important shift between 1987 and 2000 is the 4 percent increase in
                    water quality expenditures from 35 to 39 percent of total expenditures and a
                    corresponding 4 percent reduction in the percentage that is expended for
                    drinking water, from 45 to 41 percent.  This change is due primarily to the
                    increased local costs of financing wastewater treatment facilities as federal
                    grants are phased out. This reflects the fact that while local spending on water
                    quality is increasing, the total public sector spending for water quality is
                    estimated to decrease by 5 percent between 1987 and 2000 (from 41 percent to
                    36 percent). The percentage increase for other programs is largely due to costs
                    imposed by new regulations examined in this study (Underground Storage
                    Tanks Standards, Asbestos in Schools, and SARA Title IE Requirements).

Table 2
Summary of Local Government Environmental Expenditures by Media
(In Billions of 1988 dollars)
Program
Water Quality
Drinking Water
Solid Waste a
Others
Total Local Spending
1987
$11.4
$14.8
$6.1
$0.3
$32.6
Percentage
of Total
35.0 %
45.4%
18.7%
0.9%
100.0%
2000 b
$21.1
$22.2
$9.7
$0.7
$53.7
Percentage
of Total
39.3%
41.4%
18.0%
1.3%
100.0%
Percentage
Increase 1987
-2000
85%
50%
59%
133%
65%
Source: Apogee Research from U.S. Bureau of the Census and data prepared in 1988 by the
Environmental Law Institute from EPA Regulatory Impact Analyses.
Includes costs to deliver services.
Cost of maintaining 1987 levels of environmental quality plus costs of new regulations.

14

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2
Impact  of Spending for
Environmental Protection
on Capital Markets
   This chapter examines the impact on capital markets of the financing needs
of local governments. The focus is on local governments because of the
dramatic increase in local demands  for capital for environmental services
relative to other sectors and because of the availability of local cost estimates
for implementing new regulations. The capital markets view is an important
one when examining local costs because localities rely on municipal bonds to
finance environmental facilities. Increasing local demands for capital signal
proportional increases in demand for new bond issues.

Capital Requirements of Environmental Regulations

   Capital formation by EPA, states, and local governments to maintain cur-
rent levels of environmental  quality is expected  to fluctuate between $13
billion and $20 billion a year between 1987 and the year 2000 (see Figure 8). If
recent trends continue, by the year 2000 most of the demand for capital to
maintain current programs will be accounted for by local governments. Local
demands for capital are estimated to increase from $9.5 billion a year in 1987
to $16.5 billion a year in 2000 (see Figure 9). State demands for capital are
expected to remain stable over the  same  period  and are relatively small,
averaging about $680 million per year.

   Estimated local capital costs of new regulations add an average of $3 billion
a year to local capital needs associated with current environmental regula-
tions. As a result, localities are likely to have capital needs of nearly $19 billion
a year by 2000 (see Figure 9).

   Moreover, as operating expenses grow, local governments could be forced
to rely more heavily on borrowed funds to finance their capital needs. Annual
operating and maintenance expenditures are expected to increase by 52 per-
cent, from about $23 billion in 1987 to $35 billion in 2000 (see Figure 10). This
rate of increase in operating expenditures, 3.6 percent a year, is almost three
times the rate of population growth expected over this period. New environ-
mental programs will add another 10 to 20 percent to these totals.
                                                              15

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                     Figure 8
        Capital  Expenditures
EPA, STATES AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS
      In Billions of 1988 Dollars
  25
Actual  i Projected
     '81  '83  '85  '87  '89  '91  '93  '95  '97  '99

                       Local Capital Expenditures to
                       Comply with New Regulations
Source: See Appendix 6
                       EPA, State and Local Expenditures
                       to Maintain Current (1987) Level of
                       Environmental Quality

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                       Figure 9

        Capital  Expenditures
           Local Governments Only
       In Billions of 1988 Dollars
              Actual  : Projected
     '81  '83  '85 '87  '89  '91  '93  '95  '97  '99
           Capital Expenditures to Comply with New Regulations
           Capital Expenditures to Maintain Current (1987)
           Level of Environmental Quality
Source:  See Appendix 6
                                                   17

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                     Figure 10
   Capital  and  O  &  M Expenditures*
           of  Local  Governments
       In Billions of 1988 Dollars
      '81   '83  '85  '87  '89   '91  '93  '95  '97   '99
  * Includes Expenditures to Maintain Current (1987)
   Environmental Quality and to Comply  with New Regulations
                                  Source: See  Appendix 6
18

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Substitution of Local for Federal Capital

   Local demands for capital are projected to increase by 97 percent between
1987 and 2000. Concurrently, EPA's capital grants for local environmental
services are scheduled to end by 1995 (see Figure 11). To a large extent, the
substitution of local for federal capital results from the phasing-out of EPA
construction grants for wastewater treatment facilities. Capital grants  are
expected to decline from $4.5 billion in 1981 to zero when grants to capitalize
state wastewater treatment revolving funds expire in 1994.

Financing Local Environmental Facilities

   Because of a variation in intergovernmental roles, wastewater treatment
facilities are currently financed differently than either water supply or solid
waste management facilities. The federal role in financing wastewater treat-
ment facilities is much more significant than in the other two areas.

Wastewater Treatment

   In the 1980s, municipal bonds have increasingly substituted for declining
federal grants in financing wastewater treatment plants. Averaging $3.9
billion a year, federal grants financed roughly half of all wastewater facilities
from 1980 to 1984. Municipal bonds provided another $2.3 billion a year in
capital, on average.  However, the ratio of grant-to-bond dollars fell signifi-
cantly, from 2.93 in 1980 to 0.56 in 1988 (see Table 3). State assistance, private
loans, retained earnings, and private equity made up the remaining sources of
wastewater capital.

   Federal support for wastewater treatment will approach zero by  1994.
EPA's Construction Grants program, the largest source of federal aid to build
wastewater treatment plants, ends after 1991.17 Beginning in 1989, federal
grants will help capitalize  state revolving loan funds (SRFs) in place of
construction grants, but they expire in 1994. The federal role in financing
wastewater treatment plants will be reduced to small, targeted programs. In
many states, even if SRF payments are reinvested or leveraged, SRF programs
are not expected to meet financing needs.18  Even with the SRF program in
place, some 20 states will face a combined  financing need of nearly  $57
billion.19
                                                                   19

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                    Figure 11
      Comparison  of EPA* and Local
    Government Capital  Expenditures
      In Billions of 1988 Dollars
    25
    20
    15
    10
     0
               Actual i Projected »
             1
      '81  '83  '85 '87  '89  '91  '93  '95 '97  '99
              EPA Capital
   Local Capital
  Source: See Appendix 6
* Construction Grants
20

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Table 3
Estimated Sources of Capital Used to Finance Municipal









Wastewater Treatment Works (current dollars)
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
Average
Federal
Grants'
$4,720
$4,293
$4,113
$3,416
$2,969
$2,900
$3,113
$2,920
$2,514
$3,440
Municipal
Bonds
$1,610
$1,620
$2,870
$2,410
$3,150
$7,007
$6,823
$4,517
$4,498
$3,834
Ratio of
Grants/Bonds
2.93
2.65
1.43
1.42
0.94
0.41
0.46
0.65
0.56
0.90
Source: Published and unpublished data supplied by the Bureau of the Census and The Public
Securities Association.









3 Includes EPA Construction Grants, Farmers Home Administration Sewer Grants;
Department of Housing and Urban Development Community Development Block Grants
(sewer uses); and Economic Development Administration Grants (sewer uses).
   Moreover, municipalities in many of these and other states face escalating
operating expenses, tending to put upward pressure on user fees which, on the
margin, will make capital financing more difficult. In I960, for example, the
average local operating cost per person served by a central sewer system was
$17.67 a year. At the beginning of EP A's Construction Grants program in 1972,
these costs were $19.35 a year. By 1984, they had grown to $41.61 per person.
Per capita operating costs should  continue to grow as more sophisticated
energy and chemical-intensive treatment processes come on-line, particularly
in small communities with limited economies of scale. Higher operating
expenses can reduce the ability of  localities to  issue debt for capital invest-
ments, especially in areas where the average annual income is low.
                                                                  21

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                    Water Supply

                       While water supply capital needs ($4 to $5 billion a year in the 1980s) are
                    equivalent to those of the nation's wastewater treatment plants, water supply
                    systems have received almost no federal assistance. Traditionally, municipal
                    systems have financed capital needs via a mix of tax exempt municipal bonds
                    (about 60 percent); retained earnings (20 to 30 percent); state and federal grants
                    (5 to 10 percent); and other sources such as private loans, special tax assess-
                    ments, and private equity (5 to 10 percent). Larger water systems tend to rely
                    more heavily on bonds than do smaller ones, which generally rely on private
                    bank loans to finance capital needs.

                    Solid Waste Management

                       There is no federal aid for local solid waste management. Local govern-
                    ments spend about $700 million a year for capital improvements. The litera-
                    ture is far less revealing on the financing of solid waste facilities than on
                    financing for wastewater management and water supply. The few reports that
                    address the issue agree that municipal bonds provide the majority of invest-
                    ment capital for publicly-owned waste management facilities.20 Like water
                    and wastewater plants, however, some publicly-owned facilities finance
                    capital improvements with retained earnings, private bank loans, or private
                    equity.

                    Impact on Capital Formation

                       The impact of capital demands for environmental services on local capital
                    formation can be examined from two perspectives: the ability of the market to
                    respond to the capital demands, and the ability of local governments to raise
                    capital. Assuming that the market will respond if the price of capital can be
                    met, the key issue is municipal ability to support capital formation.

                       Whereas private companies often pass along the costs of capital to consum-
                    ers by adjusting the price of goods and services, local governments are more
                    limited in their ability to meet capital needs. Frequently, elected officials face
                    political difficulties in raising taxes  or fees,  or legal constraints  on  their
                    authority to raise revenues imposed by statutes, regulations, or state consti-
                    tutions. In other cases, local resources may be inadequate to support large
                    amounts of debt. This is often true for small municipalities having relatively
                    high fixed costs of issuing bonds, limited revenue bases and no economies of
                    scale. If capital-intensive facilities are forced on these and other cities, the cost
                    of increased capital formation could crowd out other investments.
22

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Can the Capital Markets Respond?

   By the year 2000, municipalities will need to issue approximately $18.7
billion in bonds for wastewater, drinking water and solid waste projects.
Compared to the volume of bonds issued to finance these projects in the 1980's-
from $4.5 to $9 billion a year - this change in volume, roughly twice the current
rate, would not be unusual.

In water supply, for example,  meeting  the capital needs of the 1986 Safe
Drinking Water Act will require an estimated $0.5 billion to $1.0 billion a year
in new capital financing over the period 1994 to 2000. This would represent a
25 to  35 percent increase over the  current volume of water supply bonds-
fluctuations well within the range in volume for such bonds between 1977 and
1985.

In addition, debt issued for environmental purposes is a small percentage of
the total debt issued by state and local governments (see Table 4). Debt issued
for water and sewer projects was only 14 percent of state and local debt in 1960
and 1970 and declined to 9 percent by 1987.

Limitations on Municipal Capital  Financing

   The overall volume of bonds necessary to meet new capital requirements
is not unmanageable from the perspective of market expansion.  However,
large  capital  demands associated with environmental services often  cause
large  peaks in capital needs that  can crowd out other  investments.  For
example, San Diego has a total outstanding debt of about $1.3 billion but is
faced with a cost of $800 million for an ocean outfall (conveyance of treated
wastewater to the ocean).  If financed  by long-term debt, the cost of the
conveyance would represent a 61 percent increase in the city's total outstand-
ing debt. The large capital demands for  this project would limit the amount
of debt the city could issue for other purposes.

Moreover, the ability of some cities, especially small ones, to issue new debt
is limited and most of the nation's environmental systems are in small
communities. Approximately 90 percent  of all community water systems
serve fewer than 3,300  residents;  88 percent of all wastewater treatment
systems handle less than 1 million gallons per day; and most of the solid waste
landfills in the nation serve communities under 10,000.21
                                                                  23

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Table 4




Water/Sewer Debt as Percentage of Total State and Local Debt
(billions of 1988 dollars)
Year
1960
1970
1980
1987
Water/Sewer
Debt
$4.57
$8.14
$4.49
$9.17
Total State &
Local Debt
$31.67
$59.02
$60.91
$105.83
Water/Sewer as
Percent of Total
14%
14%
7%
9%
Source: Apogee Research from data compiled by the Public Securities Association.




                       Because they are not well known, small communities do not have estab-
                    lished credit ratings, forcing them to seek generally higher-cost commercial
                    loans to finance capital expansion. When they are able to issue bonds publicly,
                    small denominations often bear a high cost of capital for two reasons: because
                    the fixed costs (e.g., legal fees and underwriters fees) are more burdensome
                    when spread over a small base, and because the credit markets generally
                    demand a premium to compensate the risks of lending money to small com-
                    munities with a less certain ability to repay principal and interest.

                       The EPA recently completed a study that examines  the ability of different
                    sized cities to raise capital for environmental programs through the bond
                    market.22  If the increases in debt service attributable to either the capital
                    demands of all new drinking water regulations or new water quality regula-
                    tions were limited to 1 percent of gross household income (about a doubling
                    in current user fees), EPA estimates that 26 percent of all cities under 2,500
                    persons (nearly 7,000 cities and towns) could have trouble issuing revenue
                    bonds. Fewer than 10 percent of cities with populations between 2,500 and
                    250,000 would have similar problems. Eleven percent of cities with popula-
                    tions of more than  250,000 would have trouble issuing new revenue-backed
                    debt.
24

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  Even if municipalities were willing to offset user fees with general revenues
and their full taxing powers were brought to bear on the issuance of general
obligation bonds to support new environmental initiatives, most small cities
would be no better off. In contrast, medium and larger cities would benefit
significantly.  While about 21 percent of all small cities would still face
difficulties issuing new bonds, the proportion of medium and large cities
expected to have trouble in the capital markets would decline to 3 percent and
0 percent, respectively.

  But these calculations account for only the capital demands imposed by new
regulations. The ability of many cities (regardless of size) to support new bonds
to cover total capital needs by the year 2000 — capital replacement plus the
demands of new programs — worsens the outlook presented above.
                                                                   25

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3
Impact of Environmental
Spending on  Households
   As municipalities are the primary providers of environmental services/
local government responses to increasing costs of these services will deter-
mine, to a large extent, the impact on households. There are three ways local
governments may respond (see Figure 12). Local budgets could accommodate
increased demand for resources by increasing own-source revenues through
(l)higher user charges or taxes (2)increasing the efficiency of current pro-
grams, or (3)shifts to environmental services from spending in other budget
areas. Second, local governments could seek alternative sources of finance,
either through federal and state assistance or by involving private companies
in the finance and provision of environmental services. Finally, local govern-
ments could choose not to accommodate the higher costs of environmental
services, which might lead to noncompliance or reduced quality or quantity
of service.

   Meeting the increasing costs of environmental services with local revenues
means that households and businesses must pay for regulations financed at
the municipal level through increased user charges, increased general taxes,
or reduced levels of services in competing municipal programs. The house-
hold effects of environmental spending are calculated assuming all capital
facilities are financed with long-term bonds backed by user fees. Under these
assumptions, lump-sum capital outlays are amortized, with the annualized
payments to capital added to operating and maintenance outlays each year.
The result is divided by the number of households served to provide an
estimate of the household resources necessary to pay for environmental
services. After recalculating to take out costs paid by industrial and commer-
cial facilities, the estimates reflect increases in direct costs for average house-
holds.23

   To the degree that costs to private companies are passed on to consumers
in the form of increased prices for goods and services, household costs will
increase. However, environmental compliance costs typically constitute only
a small portion of the total cost of production. Therefore, resulting price
increases will not have a significant effect on consumption of a product or
service.
                                                                27

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                             Figure 12
   Local  Government Responses to Increasing
         Costs  of  Environmental  Protection
   Increasing Local
   Costs of Environ-
   mental Protection
                   Local Budgets
                   Accommodate
                     Increased
                     Need for
                     Resources
Search for
Non-Local
Sources of
 Finance
                    Local Budgets
                      do not
                    Accommodate
                     New Need
                    for Resources
                                   Local Resources
                                    Stay Level
                                                  Reduce Spending In
                                                  Other Budget Areas
I ncreased
Efficiency
                                   Local Resources
                                     Increase
Higher
User
Charges
Higher
Taxes
M ore
Debt
                                   Federal & State
                                     Assistance
                                      Private
                                    Involvement
                                   Noncompliance
                                   Reduce Quantity
                                    or Quality of
                                      Service
28

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Household Costs of Environmental Programs

   If current trends continue, the average household will spend $647 a year by
the year 2000 for environmental services including drinking water, wastewa-
ter treatment, and solid waste management (see Table 5). This is 54 percent
more than the average household payment for such services in 1987. The
largest increment, $599 dollars a year in 2000, is  attributable to simply
maintaining the current level of environmental and service standards. The
average annual cost of complying with new regulations is estimated to be an
additional $48.24

Household Payments by City Size to Maintain Current Levels of
Environmental Quality

   Implementing current environmental programs will have more profound
effects for households in smaller cities than in larger ones. Small cities face
limited economies of scale in the provision of environmental services and
generally higher costs of capital. These two effects combined tend to drive up
the price of environmental protection for small cities.

   As a result, households in the smallest cities are expected to pay substan-
tially more than those in large and medium-sized cities through the turn of the
century. Household costs are expected to increase by about 88 percent, from
$670 in 1987 to $1,263 in 2000 in the smallest cities (less than 500 population).
Household payments to maintain current programs in medium-sized cities
(populations from 50,000 to 100,000) will increase by 38 percent, on average
from $373 in 1987 to $515 in 2000. Household costs in large cities (populations
in excess of 500,000) will increase by 36 percent, from $393 in 1987 to $533 in
2000.

Household Payments for New Regulations

   The cost of new regulations must be added to the large increases in house-
hold costs of current programs. Households in cities with populations below
500 will pay an additional $317 a year to comply with new regulations in 2000.
For the largest cities, new regulations will cost the average household $93
more each year by 2000. Households in medium-sized cities, with populations
of 10,000 to 50,000 and 50,000 to 100,000, are faced with additional costs of $24
each year.
                                                                 29

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Table 5
Average Annual Household Payments for Environmental Services









for a Sample of 8,032 Cities, Towns, and Townships (1988 Dollars)
City Size

500 or less
500 - 2,500
2,500 - 10,000
10,000 - 50, 000
50,000 - 100,000
100,000 - 250,000
250,000 - 500,000
500,000 or more
Population
Weighted
Average
Average
Payments
in 1987

$670
$473
$433
$444
$373
$291
$335
$393
$419
Additional
payments to
maintain current
levels of
environmental
quality in 2000
$593
$223
$143
$197
$142
$111
$126
$140
$180
Additional
payments to
comply with new
environmental and
service standards
in 2000
$317
$67
$29
$24
$24
$34
$68
$93
$48
Total Estimated
household
payments for
environmental
protection in 2000
$1,580
$763
$605
$665
$539
$436
$529
$626
$647
Source: Apogee Research, from U.S. Bureau of Census, 1986 Survey of Community Water Systems,
and data compiled by the Environmental Law Institute from EPA Regulatory Impact
Analyses.









                    Household Payments for Environmental Programs Compared to
                    Income

                      The difference in costs between households based on city size is even more
                    dramatic when examined as a percentage of household income (see Table 6).
                    For the smallest cities, with lower household income and higher costs per
                    household, the cost of environmental protection as a percentage of household
                    income will increase from 2.8 percent in 1987 to 5.6  percent in 2000.  For
                    medium-sized cities the percentage is expected to change slightly during the
                    period 1987 to 2000, from 1.0 to 1.2 percent, and in large cities, to change from
                    1.1 to 1.5 per cent.
30

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   Estimates of costs as a percentage of household income may be conserva-
tive because, to the extent that companies pass through environmental costs
to consumers, household income will be reduced.  As a result, the costs of
environmental protection as a percentage of household income could be
higher.

Household Payments by Program

   Household costs of each environmental program, including those to main-
tain levels of environmental quality and to comply with new regulations in the
year 2000, differ by city size category (see Table 7). Households in smaller cities
will pay comparatively more than households in either large or medium-sized
cities. Pending wastewater improvements along with the additional future
costs of maintaining current levels of environmental quality will cost the
average household in cities of 500 or less about $259 a year by 2000, when all
regulatory programs are assumed to be on-line. Drinking water regulations
will add another $366 a year and solid waste regulations another $218. This
adds up to $910 for households in small cities, in addition to the baseline
amount of $670.

   Households in medium-sized cities (50,000 to 100,000) are expected to pay
less than a third  of  the amount paid by  households in small cities for
wastewater treatment, 17 percent of that paid for drinking water, and only 9
percent of the amount spent for solid waste. This is in addition to the baseline
amount of $373 that is about half that of small cities  ($670). The largest cities
(500,000 and above) are also expected to pay sums comparably much less than
the smallest ones. Wastewater treatment and solid waste show decreasing
economies of scale with the result that households in large cities will pay more
for these services than those in medium-sized cities. However, household
costs are much less than in the smallest cities. Households in large cities will
pay 56 percent of the amount paid for wastewater treatment in small cities and
18 percent of that paid for solid waste. As drinking water shows increasing
economies of scale, households in large cities will only pay 11 percent  of
household costs in small cities. This is in addition to a baseline of $393, that is
only 59 percent of the 1987 cost for households in small cities.

Water Quality

   Wastewater treatment is the highest cost service for households in most
city sizes. Costs are estimated to be particularly high for households in the
smallest cities, where substantial investments are necessary to bring wastewa-
ter treatment facilities into compliance with minimum national standards.
                                                                 31

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Table 6
Cost of Environmental Protection Per Household as Percentage of Household
Income, By City Size (1988 Dollars)








1987 2000
City Size
500 or less
500 - 2,500
2,500 - 10,000
10,000 - 50, 000
50,000 - 100,000
100,000 - 250,000
250,000 - 500,000
500,000 or more
Population
Weighted
Average
Average
-leasehold Cost
of
Environmental
Programs
$670
$473
$433
$444
$373
$291
$335
$393
$419
Average
Household
Income
$24,277
$26,361
$30,546
$31,685
$37,189
$33,769
$31,943
$34,756
$31,617
Cost as a
Percentage of
Household
Income
2.8%
1.8%
1.4%
1.4%
1.0%
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.3%
Average
Household
Cost of
Environmental
Programs a
$1,580
$763
$605
$665
$539
$436
$529
$626
$647
Average
Household
Income
$28,357
$30,792
$35,680
$37,010
$43,440
$39,445
$37,312
$40,597
$36,931
Cost as a
Percentage
Household
Income
5.6%
2.5%
1.7%
1.8%
1.2%
1.1%
1.4%
1.5%
1.8%
Source: Apogee Research, from U.S. Bureau of Census, 1986 Survey of Community Water Systems,
and data compiled in 1988 by the Environmental Law Institute from EPA Regulatory Impact
Analyses.








Includes exists of maintaining current levels of environmental quality plus costs of complying
with new regulations.
                    Drinking Water

                       The largest cost to households in small cities in the year 2000 is estimated
                    to be for drinking water programs. About 95 percent of the total estimated
                    costs of drinking water programs in 2000 is associated with current Safe
                    Drinking Water Act programs and the provision of adequate quantities of
                    water.
32

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Table 7








Increase in Annual Household User Charges in 2000 to Maintain Existing Levels
of Environmental Quality and To Comply with New Regulations (in 1988 Dollars)
Municipality
Size
Category
500 or less
500 - 2,500
2,500 - 10,000
10,000 - 50, 000
50,000 - 100,000
100,000 - 250,000
250,000 - 500,000
500,000 or more
Average
Payment
in 1987a
$670
$473
$433
$444
$373
$291
$335
$393
Additional Fees By Program in the Year 2000
Wastewater
Treatment
$259
$174
$85
$124
$77
$63
$114
$146
Drinking
Water
$366
$59
$59
$71
$64
$63
$43
$42
Solid
Waste
$218
$43
$19
$19
$20
$14
$33
$40
Other
$67
$14
$9
$7
$5
$5
$4
$5
Total
Additional
Fees
$910
$290
$172
$221
$166
$145
$194
$233
Source: Apogee Research, from U.S. Bureau of Census, 1986 Survey of Community Water Systems,
and data compiled in 1988 by the Environmental Law Institute from EPA Regulatory Impact
Analyses.








See Appendix 5 for average 1987 payments by media.
Solid Waste

   Household expenditures for solid waste show a trend similar to that for the
other environmental services, with households in the smallest cities expected
to pay more than 5 times the amount paid by households in larger cities. For
the larger size categories, estimated household costs of solid waste programs
show reverse economies of scale. This is due to the amount of quality and
quantity-related costs included in total solid waste expenditures. There are
limited economies of scale in providing greater quantities  of solid waste
                                                                  33

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                     services. Costs of maintaining existing levels of environmental quality, that
                     are mostly quantity-related, constitute the majority of total costs in cities larger
                     than 2,500. Thus, for the most part, larger cities do not benefit from economies
                     of scale normally associated with environmental service provision in medium-
                     size cities.
34

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4
Conclusions
   The purpose of this study was to document the public costs of environ-
mental protection for EPA, the states, and local governments and to use the
data to examine the changes, distribution, and the impact of these environ-
mental costs. Within the context of existing research parameters and specified
methodology, the study successfully documents these costs for the period
1981-1987 and projects them to the year 2000.

Findings

   The study found that the public costs of maintaining current (1987)
environmental quality will grow from $40 billion a year in 1987 to more than
$55 billion in 2000. Another $5.3 billion a year will be required by local govern-
ments alone in 2000 to comply with the 22 new environmental regulations also
examined in the study.

   Detailed analysis of the data also reveals significant potential cost impacts
on local governments and households. These impacts include:

• The local share of public environmental spending is projected to rise from
   76 percent to 87 percent during 1981-2000.

• Local  demand for capital is projected to double during that same period.

• Average household costs for environmental services are projected to
   increase by 54 percent, with much larger increases occurring in small com-
   munities.

   These findings represent an important step in examining the current and
future cost implications of the expanded programs and tightened environ-
mental standards that the American people are demanding. They suggest the
need for  a continuing re-examination of how the nation finances environ-
mental protection.

Study Qualifications

   EPA recognizes the importance of continuing to obtain and refine informa-
tion on the costs of implementing environmental regulations in all program
areas. Accordingly, the Agency is following up on this study with the report
Cost of A Clean Environment that will document private sector/industry costs

                                                                 35

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                    as well as all governmental costs for existing and new regulations. This report
                    is required pursuant to the Clean Air and Water Acts and will serve to further
                    our understanding of the environmental resource needs facing EPA and the
                    nation.

                        Because this cost study was meant to be an initial effort, it is important that
                    the findings be viewed as preliminary in nature and considered within the
                    context of a number of qualifications (also see Appendix 1). These include:

                    •  The study limits the scope of its analysis by basing projections of future en-
                        vironmental costs on the 1987 level of environmental quality. Actual com-
                        pliance levels will most likely differ from this level and vary by program.

                    •  No provision is made for changes in existing programs or for new regula-
                        tions other than the 22 listed. Such changes will occur, but cannot be ade-
                        quately predicted. And, costs for them cannot be uniformly or accurately
                        determined.

                    •  Documented and projected costs to maintain current standards in the areas
                        of drinking water and solid waste include costs for the delivery of the
                        services.

                        Notwithstanding any limitations, the study provides a valid initial reading
                    of the fact that governments, particularly local ones,  will face significant
                    environmental management and financing challenges in the years ahead. This
                    requires immediate attention and action if we are to successfully meet envi-
                    ronmental mandates.

                    Next Steps

                        Recognizing that the costs of environmental protection are growing and
                    that they call for innovative approaches to financing environmental programs
                    and activities, EPA has developed a number of Agency-wide initiatives to help
                    address the environmental and resource challenges, promote greater coopera-
                    tion with state and local governments, and encourage the use of innovative
                    technologies. These include:

                    •  Pollution Prevention - This initiative promotes an integrated environ-
                        mental approach stressing the prevention of pollution through techniques
                        such as waste minimization and recycling.
36

-------
•  Public-Private Partnerships - These partnerships exist when the public and
   private sectors share responsibility for providing environmental services.
   EPA is focusing on promoting and establishing partnerships in drinking
   water, wastewater treatment and solid waste at the local level.

•  Alternative Financing - This initiative assists various government entities
   in discovering and using funding mechanisms other than general appro-
   priations or federal grants to raise revenues. The Agency's new Environ-
   mental Financial Advisory Board is an integral part of this effort.

•  Technology Development - As part of EPA's support role in providing
   states and localities with the tools needed to implement required pro-
   grams, this initiative strives to reduce compliance costs via the develop-
   ment of cleanup technologies that are more effective and efficient.

•  Technology Transfer - Technology transfer seeks improved environmen tal
   results by creating a climate that fosters cooperative approaches to solving
   problems, building knowledge and skills, and expanding the use of
   technology transfer through technical assistance training and focused
   information dissemination.

   With all levels of government and the private sector working together on
these and other environmental initiatives, the nation can begin to address the
significant emerging challenges identified in this  report.
                                                                   37

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Appendix 1
Methodology
   This study documents recent EPA, state and local government expendi-
tures for environmental protection and projects future costs to the year 2000.
Costs to local governments associated with new regulations are added to the
EPA, state and local costs of maintaining current levels of environmental
quality for all current programs in order to examine the growing gap between
current expenditures and future costs of environmental protection. In turn,
trends in the distribution of costs among EPA, the states, and local govern-
ments are assessed. Finally, the impacts of environmental policies on local
governments, capital markets, and households are analyzed.

   Trends in the expenditures of local governments and impacts at the local
level are examined in more detail than for other levels of government because
more local data are available at this time.25

Definition of Expenditures

   The terms expenditures, spending, and  outlays are used interchangeably
in this report. They follow the definition of expenditures used by the Bureau
of the Census. Capital expenditures include acquisitions of depreciable plants
and equipment, replacement, and expansion as well  as expenditures for
construction in progress. Research and development spending is excluded.

   Operating and maintenance expenditures account for the purchase of
materials, parts, supplies, fuel, and power; upkeep or leasing of equipment;
direct labor; and purchased contract services. Depreciation of  plants and
equipment are excluded, as are the costs of financing capital equipment.

   This report examines two kinds of expenditures: (l)federal, state, and local
spending to maintain the current levels of environmental quality and (2) local
spending to comply with new regulations.

Which Environmental  Services, Regulations, and  Sectors are
Included?

   The following is an explanation of the environmental expenditures in-
cluded and sectors for which data are available. Expenditures to maintain
current levels of environmental quality are more comprehensive because cost
estimates for new regulations are available only for local governments.

                                                                39

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                    Calculating Expenditures to Maintain Current Levels of
                    Environmental Quality

                    A. Environmental Services

                       •  Wastewater Treatment - expenditures pursuant to the Clean Water Act,
                          including those for construction, management, and operation of facili-
                          ties to monitor and control municipal and industrial wastewater

                       •  Drinking Water - expenditures pursuant to the Safe Drinking Water Act
                          plus those to supply adequate quantities of potable water

                       •  Solid Waste - expenditures pursuant to Subtitle D of the Resource Con-
                          servation and Recovery Act (RCRA) plus those for solid waste collec-
                          tion, transportation, and disposal services

                       •  Hazardous Waste - other expenditures pursuant to RCRA

                       •  Superfund - expenditures pursuant to the  Comprehensive Environ-
                          mental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA)

                       •  Air Quality - expenditures pursuant to the Clean Air Act

                       •  Toxic Substances - expenditures pursuant to the Toxic Substances Con-
                          trol Act (TSCA)

                       •  Pesticides - expenditures pursuant to the Federal Insecticide, Fungi-
                          cide,  and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA)

                       •  Energy - expenditures pursuant to the Energy Security Act

                       In addition, the study covers several EPA program areas administered
                    independently of these programs, including management and support, radia-
                    tion, interdisciplinary, and the Leaking Underground Storage Tanks Trust
                    Fund.

                    B. Sectors

                       Expenditures to maintain current levels of environmental quality include
                    those by EPA, the  states, and local governments, as currently available in
                    public budgets and national aggregate statistics. Although a major effort was
                    made  to include most  of the relevant costs, some gaps  in the data were
40

-------
unavoidable. Expenditures that are included in this study and those that we
were not able to gather at this time are summarized below by sector.

   Federal. At the federal level, this study includes only programs managed
by the EPA, although other federal agencies administer similar programs.
EPA expenditures by program area were derived from the Agency's annual
budget justification documents.26

   State Governments. The Bureau of the Census collects the only consistent
data on state expenditures to administer air, drinking water, and wastewater
treatment programs. They are reproduced in this study as produced and
labeled by the Census Bureau. Expenditures for leaking underground storage
tanks and hazardous waste programs were estimated from the requirements
to match federal grants. For each of these program areas, it is impossible to
distinguish among the various types of state expenditures, such as program
administration, assistance to local governments, compliance, and intergov-
ernmental coordination. At this time, we are unable to gather consistent time-
series data on state expenditures  for solid waste, Superfund, or hazardous
waste programs.

   Local Governments. Local expenditures are also reproduced from Census
reports, although the figures for intergovernmental grants to localities have
been  removed in this study, leaving only local spending from their own
sources. Expenditures are included for drinking water, wastewater treatment,
and solid waste management services. While local expenditures for other pro-
grams are not reported to the Bureau of the Census in separate categories, they
may be reported under one of the above categories.

   Local capital and operating expenditures for drinking water and solid
waste management cover both the delivery of adequate quantities of services
(water flows to meet all demands; adequate garbage removal and disposal)
and the assurance of mandated quality of services (maximum concentration of
pollutants in potable water; testing and containment in landfills). To be fair in
a comparison of the effects of future regulations, one might argue that the
appropriate baseline is  quality expenditures, exclusive of those to deliver
adequate quantities. While arguably appropriate, the data were not suffi-
ciently detailed to separate expenditures for quantity from those for quality of
service. Therefore, in projecting the cost of maintaining current programs,
both of these components were included.
                                                                  41

-------
                    Calculating Local Environmental Costs Associated
                    with New Regulations

                       In this report, costs of new regulations include only those for local govern-
                    ments. The new regulations considered in the study are associated with local
                    wastewater treatment, drinking water, and solid waste programs. In addition,
                    estimates of costs are provided for several other regulations that are independ-
                    ent of these program areas. In total, costs were estimated for 22 new regula-
                    tions  (see Table 8).

                       The estimated local costs of new regulations were derived from Regulatory
                    Impact Analyses (RIAs) prepared for EPA program offices in 1988. These es-
                    timates are conservative for a number of reasons. First, of the 37 pending
                    regulations impacting local governments, only 22 had sufficiently precise cost
                    estimates for inclusion in this study.27  Second, when RIAs estimate capital
                    costs, they generally include only the installed cost of plants and equipment.
                    When these investments are financed with municipal or industrial bonds or
                    loans, transaction costs can add 20 percent or more to capital cost estimates.
                    Moreover, this study cannot account for several regulations that are currently
                    under development pursuant to federal environmental statutes reauthorized
                    in the mid-1980s.28 Also, major programs will be reauthorized in the next few
                    years including RCRA and the Clean Air Act. New costs associated with these
                    programs could be significant. Finally, this study does not incorporate the cost
                    of new state environmental regulations that would impose costs in addition to
                    those attributable to federal regulations.

                    How Future Costs were Derived

                    Current Regulations

                       The future costs of maintaining current levels of environmental quality
                    were  estimated for each program area and level of government by regressing
                    five years of historical spending trends  against time. The projections assume
                    that factors contributing to recent spending trends will continue to do so in the
                    future. Such factors include population growth, implementation of current
                    policies, rates of compliance, replacement  of current capital facilities, and
                    budget cutbacks. Significant changes in any of these factors could have an
                    important effect on costs. For example, rates of compliance are related to
                    enforcement efforts. If enforcement activities increase, then costs would be
42

-------
expected to increase as a result of higher rates of compliance. The projections
for both current and new regulations factor in an inflation rate and are
expressed in 1988 dollars.

New Regulations

   Full compliance is assumed in estimating costs of new regulations. The
costs and timing of new regulations with an impact on local governments were
estimated based on information included in 1988 Regulatory Impact Analyses
(RIAs) prepared for EPA's program offices. Demand for capital attributable to
these regulations is  represented in a lump sum in the year the capital will first
be required, or spread out in equal lumps over a relatively short time. This
method which results in graphs showing erratic changes from year to year was
used because of timing uncertainties associated with regulatory implementa-
tion  and the demand  for  capital. In practice,  regulations will phase in,
imposing smoother demands for capital over a 5 to 10 year compliance period.
                                                                  43

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                                                Table 8
                                 New Regulations That Impose Local Costs
                                      (Included in the Cost Analysis)
                   Regulation
      Status
44
                   A. DRINKING WATER
                      Inorganic Compounds (lOCs)
                      Synthetic Organic Compounds (SOCs)
                      Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)
                      Fluorides
                      Lead and Copper Corrosion Control
                      Lead and Copper MCL
                      Coliform Monitoring
                      Surface Water Treatment Rule: Filtered
                      Surface Water Treatment Rule: Unfiltered
                      Radionuclides
                      Disinfections

                   B. WASTEWATER TREATMENT
                      Secondary Treatment of Municipal
                       Wastewater
                      Pretreatment Requirements
                      Sewage Sludge Disposal-
                       Technical Regulations
                       for Use and Disposal
                      Stormwater Management

                   C. SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL
                      Municipal Landfill Subtitle D
                      Municipal Waste Combusters
                       Air Standards
                      Municipal Waste Combusters
                       Ash Disposal

                   D. MISCELLANEOUS REGULATIONS
                      Underground Storage Tanks
                       Technical Standards
                      Underground Storage Tanks
                       Financial Standards
                      Asbestos in Schools Rule
                      SARA Title IE Requirements
In Development
In Development
Promulgated
Promulgated
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
In Development
In Development
Promulgated

Promulgated
In Development
In Development
Proposed
In Development

In Development
Promulgated

In Development

Promulgated
Promulgated

-------
Appendix 2
List of Environmental  Regulations
Applicable to Local Governments But
Not Included in the Cost Estimates
Regulation Status

A. Drinking Water

  Well-head Protection Plan
  Pesticides in Groundwater
  Disinfection By-products

B. Waste water Treatment

  National Estuary Program
  Wetlands Protection Program - 404(c) permits
  Nonpoint Source Regulations
    Guidance/Mgmt. Plans
  Section 304(1) Toxics in Water Bodies

C. Solid Waste Disposal

  National Contingency Plan - Superfund
    Program
  Low-Level Radiation Waste Standards

D. Miscellaneous Regulations

  Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles
  Gasoline Marketing
  Diesel Fuel Standards
  Revisions to National Ambient Air Quality
    Standards (Ozone, Carbon Monoxide,
    Particulate Matter, Nitrogen Oxides,
    Sulfur Oxides)
  Asbestos in Public Buildings
  Asbestos Ban and Phasedown
In Development
In Development
In Development
In Development
Promulgated
In Development

In Development
In Development

In Development
Promulgated
In Development
In Development
In Development
May be Required
In Development
                                                       45

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Appendix 3
Tables of Data




















Figure 1
Projected EPA, State, and Local Government Expenditures to
Maintain Existing Levels of Environmental Quality Compared to
Current Environmental Expenditures (Millions of 1988 Dollars)
Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Total
$34,608
$33,293
$34,316
$34,765
$36,958
$39,312
$39,749
$41,160
$45,508
$46,478
$50,418
$50,240
$50,115
$49,956
$49,814
$50,957
$52,078
$53,178
$54,258
$55,320
Spending to Maintain Existing
Levels of Environmental
Quality in Addition to Existing
Expenditures (1987)
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$1,411
$5,759
$6,729
$10,669
$10,491
$10,367
$10,207
$10,065
$11,208
$12,329
$13,429
$14,509
$15,571





















                                      47

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Figure 2
EPA, State and Local Government Expenditures to Maintain Current Levels of
Environmental Quality, by Media, 1981-2000
(In Millions of 1988 Dollars)




Year
1981
1987
2000
Air
$887
$896
$867
DW
$12,253
$15,002
$21,906
WQ
$15,647
$16,339
$20,339
SW
••^^•^••^^^^^^^^
$4,984
$6,056
$8,336
Others
$837
$1,456
$3,873
Total
$34,608
$39,749
$55,320





Figure 3
Percentage of EPA, State and Local Government Expenditures
By Environmental Service, to Maintain Current Levels of Environmental Quality,
By Media, 1981-2000




Year
1981
1987
2000
Air
3%
2%
2%
DW
35%
38%
40%
WQ
46%
41%
36%
SW
14%
15%
15%
Others
2%
4%
7%
Total
100
100
100





48

-------
Figure 4
Public Expenditures (Capital and O&M), By Level of Government, to Maintain
Current Levels of Environmental Quality
(In Billions of 1988 Dollars)






Voa-r


1981
1987
2000
EPA

Amount
$6.3
$5.0
$4.3
Percent
Share
18%
13%
8%
STATE

Amount
$2.0
$2.1
$2.6
Percent
Share
6%
5%
5%
LOCAL

Amount
$26.3
$32.6
$48.4
Percent
Share
76%
82%
87%
TOTAL

Amount
$34.6
$39.7
$55.3
Percent
Share
100%
100%
100%







Figure 5
Proportion of Environmental Outlays (Capital and O & M), By Level of
Government, to Maintain Current Levels of Environmental Quality, 1981, 1987,
and 2000 (In Millions of 1988 Dollars)






Voar


1981
1987
2000
EPA

Amount
$6,276
$5,036
$4,293
Percent
Share
18%
13%
8%
STATE

Amount
$1,992
$2,132
$2,602
Percent
Share
6%
5%
5%
LOCAL

Amount
$26,340
$32,581
$48,424
Percent
Share
76%
82%
87%
TOTAL

Amount
$34,608
$39,749
$55,319
Percent
Share
100%
100%
100%







49

-------
Figure 6
Projected Local Government Expenditures to Maintain Current Levels of
Environmental Quality and Comply with New Environmental Standards
(In Millions of 1988 Dollars)

























Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

Current Level
of Local Spending
$26,340
$25,680
$27,677
$28,399
$30,029
$32,036
$32,581
$34,068
$37,933
$38,973
$42,520
$42,857
$43,223
$43,542
$43,859
$44,810
$45,740
$46,652
$47,546
$48,424
Additional Spending
to Maintain Current
Environmental Quality
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$1,487
$5,352
$6,392
$9,939
$10,276
$10,642
$10,961
$11,278
$12,229
$13,159
$14,071
$14,965
$15,843

Additional Spending to
Comply with Standards
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$2,362
$2,986
$3,411
$3,874
$6,985
$4,111
$4,665
$4,815
$4,970
$5,750
$5,542
$6,677
$5,297
























50

-------
                                 Figure 7
Local Government Expenditures to Maintain Current Levels of Environmental
    Quality and to Comply with New Environmental Standards, by Media
            Drinking Water
Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
198S
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
19%
1997
1998
1999
2000
Current
Programs
(1988 $MM)
$12,073
$12,087
$12^47
$12,533
$13,625
$14,873
$14,816
$15,348
$15,879
$16,411
$16,942
$17,474
$18,005
$18,537
$19,068
$19,600
$20,131
$20,663
$21,194
$21,726
New
Programs
(1988 $MM)
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$1
$24
$26
$35
$94
$539
$580
$625
$1,2%
$951
$1,030
$497
Total
(1988 $MM)
$12,073
$12,087
$12,547
$12,533
$13,625
$14,873
$14,816
$15348
$15,880
$16,435
$16,968
$17^09
$18,099
$19,076
$19,648
$20,225
$21,427
$21,614
$22,224
$22,223
              Solid Waste
Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
19%
1997
1998
1999
2000
Current
Programs
(1988 $MM)
$4,948
$5,043
$5,163
$5,384
$5,771
$5,858
$6,050
$6,233
$6,426
$6,617
$6,804
$6,987
$7,166
$7,340
$7,510
$7,675
$7,836
$7,994
$8,150
$8,302
New
Programs
(1988 $MM)
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$357
$3,194
$1,035
$1,069
$1,104
$1,138
$1,172
$1,234
$1,297
$1,361
Total
(1988 $MM)
$4,948
$5,043
$5,163
$5,384
$5,771
$5,858
$6,050
$6,233
$6,426
$6,617
$7,161
$10,181
$8,201
$8,410
$8,614
$8,813
$9,009
$9,228
$9,447
$9,663
Water Quality
Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Current
Programs
(1988 $MM)
$9,086
$8,309
$9,693
$10,169
$10,295
$10,967
$11376
$12,148
$15,288
$15,605
$18,433
$18,054
$17,710
$17322
$16,938
$17,192
$17,429
$17,651
$17,858
$18,052
New
Programs
(1988 $MM)
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$2,052
$1130
$2,266
$2,305
$2,506
$2,499
$2,574
$2,650
$2,725
$2,800
$2,875
$^951
$3,026
Total
(1988 $MM)
$9,086
$8,309
$9,693
$10,169
$10,295
$10,967
$11376
$14,200
$17,418
$17,871
$20,738
$20360
$20,209
$193%
$19388
$19,917
$20,299
$20326
$20,809
$21.078
 Includes costs to deliver services.
                                                                          51

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52




















Figure 8
Total Capital Expenditures by EPA, States and Local Governments, to Maintain
Current levels of Environmental Quality and Local Capital Spending to
Comply with New Regulations, 1981-2000 (In Millions of Dollars)
Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Total Capital Expenditures to
Maintain Current Levels of
Environmental Quality
$13,274
$11,334
$11,399
$11,010
$12,205
$13,468
$12,935
$13,267
$16,433
$16,718
$19,749
$18,640
$17,574
$16,550
$15,567
$15,892
$16,217
$16,541
$16,865
$17,188
Local Capital Costs to Comply
with New Regulations
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$2,199
$2,881
$2,994
$3,313
$5,892
$2,177
$2,617
$2,610
$2,597
$3,209
$2,774
$3,707
$2,110






















-------
Figure 9
Local Capital Expenditures to Maintain Current Levels of Environmental Quality
and to Comply with New Regulations, 1981 2000
(In Millions of 1988 Dollars)






















-\T
Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1985
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Current Capital
Expenditures
$8,374
$6,877
$7,883
$7,853
$8,650
$9,810
$9,547
$10,262
$13,379
$13,689
$16,517
$16,112
$15,728
$15,366
$15,024
$15,337
$15,650
$15,962
$16,275
$16,587
New Capital
Costs
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$2,199
$2,881
$2,994
$3,313
$5,892
$2,177
$2,617
$2,610
$2,597
$3,209
$2,774
$3,707
$2,110
Total
Capital
$8,374
$6,877
$7,883
$7,853
$8,650
$9,810
$9,547
$12,461
$16,260
$16,683
$19,830
$22,004
$17,905
$17,983
$17,634
$17,934
$18,859
$18,736
$19,982
$18,697























53

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Figure 10
Local Governmental Capital and O&M Expenditures to Maintain Current Levels of
Environmental Quality and to Comply with New Regulations
(In Millions of 1988 Dollars)






















Year
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1985
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Local
Capital
$8,374
$6,877
$7,883
$7,853
$8,650
$9,810
$12,461
$16,260
$16,683
$19,830
$22,004
$17,905
$17,983
$17,634
$17,934
$18,859
$18,736
$19,982
$18,697
Local
O&M
$17,966
$18,803
$19,794
$20,546
$21,379
$23,034
$23,969
$24,659
$25,700
$26,564
$27,838
$29,429
$30,224
$31,040
$31,846
$32,631
$33,459
$34,242
$35,017
Local
Total
$26,340
$25,680
$27,677
$28,399
$30,029
$32,581
$36,430
$40,919
$42,384
$46,394
$49,842
$47,334
$48,207
$48,674
$49,781
$51,490
$52,195
$54,223
$53,714






















54

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                        Figure 11
Comparison of EPA and Local Government Capital Expenditures
                (In Millions of 1988 Dollars)
























Year
-L 1/U.l
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1985
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
EPA

Capital Outlays
$4,511
$4,071
$3,250
$2,848
$3,126
$3,258
$2,967
$2,566
$2,362
$2,325
$2,288
$1,689
$1,108
$545
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Local

Capital Outlays
$8,374
$6,877
$7,883
$7,853
$8,650
$9,810
$9,547
$12,461
$16,260
$16,683
$19,829
$22,004
$17,905
$17,983
$17,635
$17,934
$18,859
$18,736
$19,982
$18,696
























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Appendix 4
Differences in  Methodology and
Content Between the Municipal Sector
Study  and This Report
1. The Municipal Sector Study (MSS) estimates local costs associated with new
regulations assuming that costs of existing environmental regulations remain
constant over the period studied, 1988 to 1996. This report (Cost Report)
incorporates  these data  and, in addition, provides data on expenditures
pursuant to current regulations. For the Cost Report, local expenditures
pursuant to existing regulations are provided for 1981 to 1986 and projected
to the year 2000 to estimate local costs of existing regulations. Tables indicating
costs to municipalities and households in year 2000 include both costs of
maintaining current programs and costs of new regulations.

2. The final years of cost projection differ for the two studies. For the MSS it is
1996 and for the Cost Report it is 2000. While the MSS discusses future costs
for 1996, this report compares 1987 with 2000.

3. All data in the MSS are presented in 1986 dollars and for the Cost Report they
are presented in 1988 dollars.

4. Capital costs were amortized using different methods. The MSS used a 10
percent real rate. The Cost Report assumed a 3 percent real rate.

5. The MSS reports costs in fewer size categories than the Cost Report. The
large expenditures estimated for households in the smallest cities (<500) in the
Cost Report are reduced considerably when averaged across households in
cities with <2,500 people (the smallest size category in the MSS). This is also
true when calculating expenditures as a percentage of household  income.

6. Average costs per household are calculated in the MSS based on a survey of
household user charges for environmental services whereas in the Cost Report
household costs are based on necessary expenditures per household to pro-
vide the services. This difference in methodology results in different cost
estimates because revenues from charges do not necessarily equal expendi-
tures to provide a service. In addition, costs of provision vary between cities
— even  for communities of comparable size. Finally, the use of different
surveys contributes an additional source of variation. The MSS data are based
on survey results gathered specifically for the MSS project. Data in the Cost
Report are based on survey results gathered by the Office of Drinking Water
and the U.S. Census Bureau.
                                                              57

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Appendix 5
Average Annual Household User
Charges for Environmental Services in
1987 (1988 Dollars)









Municipality Size
Category
500 or less
500 - 2,500
2,500-10,000
10,000-50,000
50,000-100,000
100,000 - 250,000
250,000 - 500,000
500,000 or more
Weighted
Average
Drinking
Water
$304
$210
$191
$182
$150
$126
$127
$108
$172
Water
Quality
$304
$213
$174
$184
$143
$106
$92
$100
$164
Solid
Waste
$62
$50
$68
$78
$80
$59
$116
$185
$83
Total
$670
$473
$433
$444
$373
$291
$335
$393
$419
Source: Apogee Research from data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and 1986 Survey of
Community Water Systems, conducted by the Research Triangle Institute for the
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Drinking Water, October 23, 1987.








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Appendix 6
Sources of Data for
Figures Used in Reports
Figures 1 through Figure 5:
Apogee Research projections from the following:

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances (various years); Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Pollution Abatement and Control Expenditures (various
years); Bureau of the Census, Pollution Abatement Cost and Expenditure Survey
(various years); U.S. EPA, Justification of Appropriation Estimates for Committee
on Appropriations (various years).

Figures 6 through Figure 11:
Apogee Research projections from the following:

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Government Finances (various years); Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Pollution Abatement and Control Expenditures  (various
years); Bureau of the Census, Pollution Abatement Cost and Expenditure Survey
(various years); U.S. EPA, Justification of Appropriation Estimates for Committee
on Appropriations (various years); and data prepared by the Environmental
Law Institute from Regulatory Impact Analyses for the water quality and solid
waste programs. Costs of new regulations for the drinking water program are
from the preliminary analysis for the "Estimates of the Total Benefits and Total
Costs Associated with the 1986 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act",
November, 1989.
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End  Notes
Executive Summary
       1    The Municipal Sector Study: Impacts of Environmental Regulations on Municipali-
           ties, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection
           Agency (September 1988). See Appendix 4 for an explanation of the differ-
           ences between the methodology and content of the Sector Study and this
           report.
       2    The Clean Air and Water Acts require that EPA report to Congress every five
           years estimating the costs of carrying out the respective acts. The next report
           will be submitted in 1990.
       3    State Funding Study, Details of State Needs, Funding, Funding Gap, U.S. Environ-
           mental Protection Agency (August 8,1988). Trends in the State Funding Study
           were extended from 1995 to 2000 in order to provide consistent data for this
           report.
       4    EPA, Municipal Sector Study (September 1988).
Assumptions for Projections
       5   Determining and Addressing Critical Environmental and Resource Challenges Facing
           EPA and Society, Draft Report on Current Expendihires for Compliance with
           Federal Mandates. Office of the Comptroller, U.S. Environmental Protection
           Agency, August 22,1988.
Chapter 1
           Appendix 1 describes the methodologies used in estimating future costs.
           National Council on Public Works Improvement, Fragile Foundations: A Report
           on the Nation's Public  Works (February 1988). The National Council on Public
           Works Improvement reported a steady increase in net depreciated capital
           assets from 1960 to 1987 for drinking water and wastewater treatment serv-
           ices, with asset bases increasing by 2.5 percent each year for drinking water
           and by 4.4 percent each year for wastewater treatment. While some of this
           investment is due to higher quantity and levels of service, it is clear that new
           additions to the capital stock have outpaced the depreciation of existing plants
           and equipment.
           The Clean Air Act was last reauthorized in 1976 and most of the regulations
           attributable to the clean air program have had their major cost effects already.
           Congress is now debating a new Clean Air Act, which undoubtedly will
           impose new costs on governments and the private sector. That these costs
           cannot be included in this study probably underestimates the projected
           outlays for air quality control.
           The "other" category also includes the Leaking Underground Storage Tanks
           Program, interdisciplinary studies, administration within EPA, plus EPA
           programs in energy, radiation, pesticides, and toxic substances.

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                               10   1988 Needs Survey Report to Congress: Assessment of Publicly-Owned Was tewater
                                   Treatment Facilities in the United States, USEPA (February 1987).
                               11   R.W. Beck and Associates, The Nation's Public Works: Report on Solid Waste
                                   Management, prepared for the National Council on Public Works Improvement
                                   (May 1987).
                               12   See Council of State Governments, Resource Guide to State Environmental
                                   Management, Lexington, Kentucky (1988).
                               13   State Funding Study, Details of State Needs, Funding, Funding Gap, U.S. Environ-
                                   mental Protection Agency (August 8,1988).
                               14   Congressional Budget Office, Environmental Federalism: Allocating Responsibili-
                                   ties for Environmental Protection, Staff Working Paper (September 1988).
                               15   Estimates were prepared by the Environmental Law Institute from data
                                   abstracted from Regulatory Impact Analyses prepared for EPA's major
                                   pending rules.
                               16   US EPA, op cit, 1988 Need Survey Report to Congress.
                        Chapter 2
                               17   Other Federal aid that can be used for local wastewater treatment works
                                   include Farmers Home Administration water and sewer grants and loans and
                                   Economic Development Administration grants to under-developed regions.
                               18   Some states such as New York plan to meet the shortfall with highly leveraged
                                   SRFs. That is, the original capitalization will be used to secure bonds, raising
                                   up to five times the amount available for loans in the original capitalization
                                   grants.
                               19   For details, see Apogee Research, Inc. The Nation's Public Works: Report on
                                   Wastewater Management, prepared for the National Council on Public Works
                                   Improvement (May 1987).
                               20   See, R.W. Beck and Associates, Report on Solid Waste.
                               21   For details, see Apogee Research, Inc. and Wade  Miller Associates, Inc.,
                                   Problems in Financing and Managing Smaller Publk Works, prepared for the
                                   National Council on Public Works Improvement (September 10,1987).
                               22   EPA, Municipal Sector Study (September 1988).
                        Chapter 3
                               23   See Appendix 4 to this report for an explanation of differences in methodology
                                   between this report and the Municipal Sector Study.
                               24   Cities were divided into the following population-size categories: less than
                                   500; 500 - 2500; 2500 - 10,000; 10,000 - 50,000; 50,000 -100,000; 100,000 - 250,000;
                                   250,000 - 500,000; more than 500,000.
                        Appendix 1
                               2S
                                   EPA is collecting data for the 1990 Report to Congress, The Cost of Clean Air
                                   and Water. In addition to the data provided in the present report, The Cost of
                                   Clean Air and Water will include federal non-EPA expenditures and environ-
                                   mental expenditures by private industry associated with current and new
                                   regulations.
64

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26   The following programs are included: construction grants, state revolving
    fund capitalization grants, water quality, hazardous waste, solid waste,
    Superfund, air quality, drinking water, toxic substances, pesticides, energy,
    radiation, underground storage tanks, management and support, and interdis-
    ciplinary.
27   Appendix 2 to this report presents a list of the pending regulations applicable
    to local governments but not included in the cost analysis.
28   Including the  1984 Hazardous and Solid Waste Amendments to the Resource
    Conservation and Recovery Act (HSWA), the 1986 Superfund amendments
    (SARA), the 1986 Safe Drinking Water Act amendments, and the 1987 amend-
    ments to the Clean Water Act.
                                                                       65

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