EPA-AA-IMG-85-6

                   Technical  Report
                Tech IV Credit Model:

            Estimates  for  Emission Factors
   and Inspection and Maintenance Credits for 1981
            and Later  Vehicles for MOBILES
                          by

                 David J. Brzezinski


                     October 1985
                        NOTICE

Technical Reports  do  not necessarily  represent final  EPA
decisions  or  positions.    They  are  intended  to  present
technical  analysis   of   issues   using   data  which   are
currently available.   The purpose  in  the release  of  such
reports  is  to   facilitate  the  exchange   of  technical
information  and   to  inform   the  public   of  technical
developments which may  form  the  basis  for  a final  EPA
decision, position or regulatory action.
                Technical  Support Staff
         Emission Control Technology Division
               Office of Mobile Sources
              Office  of  Air  and Radiation
         U.  S.  Environmental  Protection Agency-

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                       Table of Contents

1.0  Background
2.0  Overview of Method
3.0  Vehicle Sample
           3.1   Estimates for Normal Emitters
           3.2   Estimates for High Emitters
           3.3   Estimates for Super Emitters
           3.4   Combined Deterioration Equations
4.0  Inspection and Maintenance Benefits
           4.1   Short Test Data
           4.2   I/M Short Test Errors of Commission and
                 Omission
           4.3   I/M Short Test Identification Rates
           4..4   Effects of I/M
5.0  The Tech IV Credit Model
References
Figures
Tables
Appendix

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1.0  BACKGROUND

The  Tech  IV Credit  Model  is  used  to  estimate  the  emission
factor equations and  the  effects  of Inspection  and  Maintenance
(I/M)  programs  for  1981  and later  passenger  cars  (Tech  IV)
stored in  the EPA MOBILES  emission factor' model.   MOBILE3  is
used  to  estimate  future  fleetwide emission  -levels  of  highway
mobile sources;

There were two  primary reasons  for the development of  the Tech
IV Credit  Model.   First, the nature  of  the  technology used to
control  emissions  from  1981  and  later  passenger cars  produce
the  random  occurrence  of  vehicles  whose  emissions  are  many
times the average emissions of the  sample would  not  be  properly
accounted  for using  a simple regression through the  existing
data  as  is  done  to  predict  emission  levels for all  pre-1981
model  year passenger  cars  in MOBILE3.   Secondly,  there  was. a
need  to  estimate  the impact of  I/M  programs on the  emission
levels of these vehicles for MOBILES.

MOBILE2,  EPA's  previous model,  also used a modeling process to
estimate the  Tech  IV  emission factorstl]*.    This was  necessary
primarily  because  of  the   lack  of  data  from vehicles  which
resembled  the technology  types  expected to  be commonly  used in
future years at  the  time  MOBILE2 was completed.   The MOBILES
version  of the  Tech  IV Credit Model  makes  use  of the  existing
data  sample  of 1166  1981  and later vehicles.   Each technology
type  is  examined  separately.  The results  are then  combined
into  a  final  model  year  specific   emission  factor  used  in
MOBILES.

The  emission factors  for high-altitude  areas used  in MOBILES
were  also  computed using a model similar to  the model discussed
in  this  report.   A   complete documentation  of  the  differences
between  that model  and this will be  addressed in  a  separate
report.
 *Numbers  in  brackets  refer to  references  listed at  the  end of
 the report.

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                               -2-

2.0  OVERVIEW OF METHOD

The  technology  used   to   meet  the  more  stringent  emission
standards beginning  with the  1981  model  year  is  continuing to
change.   While  many  manufacturers  have   utilized  computer
controls  since  1981,  others  did  not  adopt  them  product-wide
until  more  recently,   especially   in  response  to  the  1984
all-altitude  requirement.    Also,  more  and  more  manufacturers
are  moving  toward  fuel  injection.   An  EPA  contractor  has
estimated the  changes  in technology  over time  into  the  future
based  on  discussions with the major  vehicle  manufacturers [2].
Based  on  these  forecasts it was felt that the Tech  IV  Credit
Model  should  predict  the  emission  levels  of  each  distinct
technology separately and then combine the results  based  on the
fraction  of  the  vehicle fleet predicted  to use each technology
in each model year  group.   In addition,  vehicles  receiving the
CO waiver in  1981  or  1982 would  be treated  separately from
non-waiver vehicles  and the  results  of these  two  groups would
be weighted  together  in those model  years  when  waivers were
issued.

The  MOBILE2  version of  the  Tech  IV  Credit  Model  divided the
sample  into  .two emission  level categories.   This  concept was
retained and expanded in the MOBILES  version.   The most obvious
division  was between   the   majority  of  the vehicles and the
outliers.   Four  vehicles with  extremely  high  hydrocarbon (HC)
and  carbon  monoxide  (CO)   emissions  were   identified   in  the
sample  [3].   These  four   vehicles  are   therefore  treated
separately.   There  remained many vehicles with high  HC  and CO
emission  levels which  could  not be  statistically  identified as
outliers,  but whose  emission levels would likely be affected by
an I/M program.  As  a  result, the remaining  sample  was  divided
into two  groups  representing vehicles with generally acceptable
emissions and those vehicles  with  higher than  normal emission
levels.   Further sections   of  this  report  will  discuss these
divisions in more detail.

The  general  approach of  the Tech IV  Credit  Model  is  to  obtain
statistical  information  about  the  emission  levels  of  each
division by emission standard  and technology  and to predict the
emission  levels  of  that division at  any  specified age measured
by mileage.  All divisions  are then weighted together  based on
the predicted size of each division for each model year group.

The  resultant  emission  level  predictions  when  plotted  versus
mileage  are  nearly  linear.   For   simplicity,   MOBILE3   uses  a
linear  input for the  emission  factor equation.   Therefore,  a
linear equation  is  fit  to   the  emission  levels  versus  mileage
for  each  model  year  group  using  a weighted  regression.   The.
weighting is determined  by  the vehicle mileage contribution of
each age  to  the  vehicle lifetime mileage accumulation.  Further
sections  in this report will  discuss  each of  these processes in
more detail.

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                               -3-

As described  in the following pages,  the  method just described
was  repeated  for   the  overall  FTP  (Federal  Test  Procedure.)
emission  results  and for  each of the  three "bags"  of  the  FTP
separately.  The separate  bag  results are heeded in  MOBILES  to
correctly  adjust  for varying  percentages  of'operation  in  the
modes represented by the three bags.

In order  to  estimate  I/M  credits for  these  vehicles  it  was
assumed  that  the  emission  levels   of  vehicles  after  repair
would, on  average,  resemble the  emissions  of  the division  of
the  sample with acceptable  emissions.   Since  not  all vehicles
with acceptable emission levels would pass their applicable EPA
certification  standards, this  does not assume that all repaired
vehicles will  pass  certification  standards after  repair.   The
estimation  of  the  emissions  of   the fleet  for the  I/M case,
therefore,  resembles the  process  for estimating  the  non-I/M
emissions  except  that  some portion of  the fraction of vehicles
normally assumed to be outliers or in need of maintenance would
instead  be   attributed  to   the  category  of  vehicles  with
acceptable emission levels.

Once  all  of   the  categories  had  been  weighted together,  the
non-I/M case. and  I/M program case for each age  are compared and
the  reduction in  emissions  expressed   as  a  percent.   This
percent reduction in exhaust emissions is stored in MOBILES and
used to  estimate  the reduction in the emission  factors  due to
I/M.   I/M  credits   were   calculated   and  stored  only  for  the
overall FTP, not for individual bags.   Further  sections in this
report will discuss this process in more detail.

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                               -4-  •

3.0  VEHICLE SAMPLE

On  April 19,  1984,  the Emission Factor  Program (EF) data base
included 1380  light-duty  gasoline vehicles  (LDGV)  that had been
built  and certified to the  current Federal NOx-standard of 1.0
grams  per mile" (gm/mi).  This  data set  is  updated relative to
the  data presented  at  the  February 14,  1984  MOBILES workshop.
It  includes an additional 222  data  records  from further testing
as  part of the 1984 Emission  Factor  Program.   The data include
137   1980  model   year  California   cars   certified   to  the
•0.41/9.0/1.0   gm/mi  (HC,  CO  and  NOx)  standard.    These  cars
although representative  of  the  advanced  catalyst technologies
under  consideration are  also  the first cars  made according to
the   tighter   NOx   emission   standard.   These   vehicles  may
represent  more of  a  prototype  technology  unrepresentative .of
current  trends.    They were  too numerous  to  ignore,  but  too
suspect   to  include  without  guestion.  Therefore,   they  were
included where their numbers were needed  most, in the estimates
of the deterioration slopes, but  nowhere else.

Also   included in  the   data  were  five  vehicles  which  were
certified to the California  standards  which did not require the
use  of   a  catalyst.   These  vehicles  do  not  represent  any
technology expected  to be used in the  1981  and later model year
fleet.   These  vehicles were therefore  not used  in  the model.
Seven  vehicles were certified  to  a   2.0  gm/mi  NOx standard.
These  vehicles were granted waivers  which  were still available
to  certain  manufacturers.   These  vehicles  were   left  in  the
analysis  to   account   for   waiver  vehicles.   One  California
vehicle  with  a  problem  in  the  computer   control  module  was
excluded from  the analysis  because the manufacturer claimed to
have eliminated the  potential  for this problem through a design
change.

Visibly  tampered vehicles were excluded from  the analysis.  The
Emission Factor  Program  vehicles were  examined  for emissions
system  tampering.   Not  all  forms of tampering yield  significant
exhaust  emissions  increases.   Tampering of  the air pump system,
catalyst removal,  misfueling  of catalyst  equipped  cars  with
leaded  gasoline  and EGR system disablements  were  considered
reasons  for  removal  from  the data.   There were  87 vehicles  (6%)
identified with such tampering in the  EF program  passenger car
sample.   All 87 tampered  cars were removed from the  sample used
in  the  analysis.   MOBILE3 adjusts the emission  levels predicted
by the Tech IV Credit  Model to  reflect  the emission impact of
tampering separately.

The  total non-tampered  LDGV analysis  data base  includes  1292
records.   Of   these,   126   are  1980  model  year  California
certified cars.    The  California cars were  only  used  in  the
estimate of  the  deterioration slopes.   The vehicles  used in the
analysis are described by model  year,  technology  and emissions
standards  in Table 1 and  Table 2.

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                              -5-

In  general,   the  randomized  EF  selection  procedures  tend  to
minimize   data  clumping   by   technology,   manufacturer   and
mileage,*  but there  is  a probable  correlation between  model
year and  mileage.   As  a  result,  the emission  level  prediction
for deterioration  versus  mileage assumes  that  newer  model year
vehicles  will 'obtain  similar  emission  levels  as  older  model
year vehicles when they reach  similar  mileage  levels.  All  of
the outliers  observed in the sample were 1981 model year cars.

Another   apparent   trend,  the   decreases   in  emissions   in
succeeding years,  is  due  in part to the decreasing mean mileage
associated with  successive model  years.   The  significance  of
these  trends  is  limited  by the lack  of  1982  and  later  model
year vehicles in  the critical  3.4  gm/mi  CO standard case,  a
factor  that  becomes   even more  important  when  the  data  are
further divided  into appropriate catalyst technology categories.

For purposes  of  the  model, all vehicles  in the  sample  which
were  not  judged outliers  were  divided  into two  groups.   The
first   group   represents   vehicles  with   accept .ble  emission
levels.   The second  group  represents  vehicles  with  higher
emission  levels.  The  first group  of  "normal emitting" vehicles
will  subsequently  be  referred  to  in  this  report  simply  as
"Normals".  All  non-outlier vehicles in the sample  not  judged
to  be  Normals  will be referred to  as "Highs".   The outliers
themselves  will be referred  to  as  "Supers".   Each  of  these
emission  level  groups will be  discussed  in  more detail  in the
following sections.

3.1  Estimates for  Normal Emitters

One of  the major reasons  for  dividing   the  sample  into Normals
and Highs  is  to assist in the modeling  of  I/M programs.  In the
model,  any  vehicle  in  the  sample  whose   FTP  emissions  are
greater  than  1.5 gm/mi HC or  20 gm/mi  CO is considered a High
emitter.  This level best  divides  the sample into Normals which
tend  to pass short tests  and Highs which  tend to  fail  short
tests.

There   are   a   total   of  1219   Normal   emitters   among  the
non-tampered  LDGV  sample.  The  emission  levels  of  the Normals
are described in Table 1.   They are distributed by technology
and model  year standards  as shown in Table 2.   On the basis of
preliminary  analyses,  these normal  emitters were  divided into
three  principal  related technology groups:   closed loop (CLLP),
open loop  (OPLP),  and  oxidation catalyst only (Oxid).   Then,
 *Some specially  recruited high mileage cars tend to introduce
 a bi-modality with  respect to mileage.

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bag-by-bag and combined-FTP deterioration  factors  (slopes)  were
determined for each by  means  of linear regression  with  respect
to mileage  using dummy variables  specific  to  technology,  model
year and the CO emission standard.  This procedure  determines a
best fit slope for  each combination of technologies, minimizing
the effects of coincidental technology, model  year  and emission
standard correlations with mileage.   All of the data, including
the  1980  model  year  California  data,   were  used  in  these
regressions.  The  resulting  deterioration  factors    are  listed
in Table 3.

Normal  emitter   zero-mile  intercepts  were  calculated  for  the
various  technology  and  model  year-emission   standard  subcases
using  the  subcase mean  emissions, En/  and mean  mileages,  M,
and the appropriate deterioration factors  (DFn)as follows,

                      ZMn = En  - DFn  * M.

The  1980 model  year California   certified  cars were  excluded
from the  calculation  of zero-mile  intercepts.  This  left  1105
normal  emitting  vehicles upon  which  to  base the  estimates  of
the zero-mile intercepts shown in Table 4.

Since there are  no  outliers  with regards  to oxides  of  nitrogen
(NOx)  emissions   and  since   I/M  programs  are  not  assumed  to
result  in  repairs  that significantly  affect  NOx,   all  vehicles
in the sample are  considered  Normal  emitters with  regards  to
NOx  emissions.    The  NOx  emission  zero  mile  intercepts  for
Normals therefore are based  on  the total  non-tampered sample of
1166 vehicles.   Also,  the  following  discussions  of Highs  and
Supers, therefore, do not apply to NOx emissions.

3.2  Estimates for High Emitters               •

High  emitters are  defined  here   as  those light-duty  vehicles
that either  have FTP-HC  emissions greater  than 1.5 gm/mi  or
have FTP-CO  emissions greater  than  20 gm/mi  and which  are not
outliers.   These vehicles tend to fail  the  I/M   short  tests.
They are not  otherwise  special  and other  choices for FTP cutoff
levels  have been shown  to  yield essentially equal  estimates  of
emissions deterioration when  used  in  the  model.  The particular
cutpoints  used  were  chosen  such that  the  majority  of  all
vehicles failing the  I/M short tests would be  considered High
emitting  vehicles for  purposes  of  the  model..   There  is  no
comparable  group  for  NOx  since  all  vehicles are  considered
Normal  emitters  for NOx emissions.

The  proportion  of High-emitters observed  in   the sample  is not
uniform but rather  increases  with  increasing  mileage.  Overall,
the data would be fit by the following linear  regression:

                  Wh = -0.00973 + 0.027597 * M

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                              -7-

The equation  becomes  positive at  3,500 miles,  a small  offset
from the  origin which is not significant.   The  equation equals
0.128 (12.8%) at 50,000 and 0.266 (26.6%)  at  100,000  miles.   As
explained below, this  single  overall  linear fit was not used in
the model.

The 57 High  emitters  are distributed by technology,  model  year
and  emission  standard  as  shown  in  Table  2.    They are  not
equally  distributed  by  technology,   and  therefore,  separate
estimates  of  Wh  for  the High-Emitters   have  been  made  for
closed-loop  carbureted (CLLP/Carb),   closed-loop  fuel  injected
(CLLP/FI), open-loop  3-way catalyst  (OPLP) and  pure oxidation
catalyst (Oxid) cars.

The closed-loop fuel-injection  category of cars  is  especially
important because  it  is  projected to  dominate sales  by 1986.
However, there  were only 122  of  them in the  sample  at the time
of  this  analysis.   Therefore for purposes of  determining  the
emission  levels and  other characteristics of  CLLP/FI  Highs,
this  category  has  been  augmented  by  including  as  CLLP/FI
equivalents,   any  CLLP/Carb  (Normal  or  High)  whose  emission
failure was not due to carburetor problems.

We  have  assumed for purposes of the model that the proportion
of  High  emitters will  increase  in  a piece-wise  linear fashion
from the  origin.   There is reason to suspect that beyond 50,000
miles,  the  "useful"  life of passenger cars  for  certification
purposes,  that  the rate of increase  in  the  number of  High
emitters will  increase.   This increase  would be due  to  loss of
warranty  coverage  and  general  poor  maintenance given  to  used
cars  by  owners.    Therefore,  the  model   assumes  that  beyond
50,000 miles the rate of  increase of the Highs will double.

The model  uses a  two-stage equation to predict  the proportion
of  vehicles  in a  fleet  which will have  high emissions.    The
equation  expresses the proportion as  a linear  function  of  the
average odometer mileage  of the  vehicles.   It has two segments
to  accomodate  the  assumed change in the rate of increase of the
occurrence of High emitters as the vehicles age.   The following
assumptions are used.

     -There  are no High emitters at zero miles,  but vehicles
     start to become High emitters as soon  as they are driven.

     -The  boundary,  or  "kink",  between   the  segments  should
     occur at  50,000  miles.   This  assumption is based  on  the
     .common definition of the "useful life" of a vehicle.

     -The slope of the segment  which follows the  kink  is twice
     that  of the  first  segment.   This assumption reflects  the
     increased  wear  and possibly less  diligent  maintenance of
     older  vehicles,   which  would  cause   than  to become  High
     emitters at an increased rate.

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                              -8-

With these assumptions in place, the function is as follows:

     f(x) = ox       (x _< 5)

     f(x) = 2ox-5    (x > 5)

where:
     f(x)  is the proportion of high emitters in the fleet at
           mileage level, x.

     x     is the odometer mileage ( x 10k miles).

     a     is the slope of the first segment.

Note  that  only  one  value,  a,  is  needed  to  complete  the
function.  The  least-sguares method was  used to find a value of
a which  allows the function  to best  describe  the behavior  of
each technology subset in  the  sample.   The method was applied
as follows:

     E     is the error  term,  in this case  it  is  a function of
           a.

     i     denotes an individual vehicle in the set.

     Y     is  a variable which  indicates  the  emission category
           of vehicle  i.  Y = l if  emissions  are "high",  0 if
           emissions are normal.

     b     denotes  the -  group  of  vehicles  with  mileages  less
           than or egual to 50,000 (x £ 5).

     c     denotes the group  of vehicles  with  .mileages greater
           than 50,000 (x > 5) .

The eguation for the error would be as follows:

       E* = I(fUi) - Yi)2

                                  - 5a - Y4 ) 2
To  find  the value  of  a where E2  (and,  thus,  the error  E)  is
minimized,  the  value  which  causes  the  derivative,  dEz/da,
to-be zero must be found.

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                              -9-
   dE2/da = ^(axj  - Y^Xi  + I2(2axt  - 5a - Yt)(2xt- 5)
            5                c

                     lXl  + al(2x4  - 5)2  - lY1(2x1  - 5)
Then, solving for the slope a,

                   iX! + lY1(2xi - 5)
        a =
                                - 5)
The  slope of  the  equation,  a,  was then  determined  for  each
technology subset  of  the  sample.   The  resultant  0  to  50,000
mile slopes are listed below.

          Wh  = 0.0250 *. M             for CLLP/Carb
             = 0.0193 * M             for CLLP/FI
             = 0.0401 * M             for OPLP/Carb
             =0.0                    for Oxid

The  High  emitter  emission  level magnitudes   (ZMh)  are  the
bag-by-bag High  emitter  emission means  for each of  the four
technology categories.  These emission levels  are not assumed
to  increase  with increasing age.  The  number  of  vehicles  in
this  emission  category  is  assumed  to  increase  with  age  as
described  above.   The High  emitter  magnitudes  are  listed  in
Table 5.

The estimates for High emitter  emission  levels do not include
the 1980 model year California certified vehicles.

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                              -10-

3.3  Estimates for Super Emitters

There were  four  outliers identified  in the sample. [3]   All  of
these Super emitters  were  closed-loop carbureted vehicles.  Two
of these vehicles  had emission problems which- might  also occur
on closed-loop fuel-injected  vehicles  and therefore  were used
to simulate the emission levels of fuel-injected Super emitters.

Since  only  four  Super  emitters  were  observed  in  a  total
closed-loop  carbureted and  fuel-injected  vehicle  sample,  the
following  equation  best  describes  the  occurrence  of  Super
emitters.

          Number of Supers = W,C*MC*NC + Wsf*Mf*Nf = 4

     Where:       W«c = Rate of carbureted Supers
                 W«r = Rate of fuel-injected Supers
                 Mc  = Mean mileage of carbureted vehicles
                 Mf  = Mean mileage of fuel-injected vehicles
                 Nc  = Number of carbureted vehicles
                 Nf  = Number of fuel-injected vehicles

     And for this sample:

                 Mc = 22,092 miles
                 Mf = 18,293 miles
                 Nc = 656 vehicles
                 Nf = 122 vehicles

Although  all  four  observed  Super  emitters  were  carbureted
vehicles, the  sample  of  fuel-injected vehicles  is  small enough
so that  it  is not surprising  that  no fuel-injected Supers were
observed.   Further,  since  only two  of  the  four  malfunctions
observed  in the  Supers  could have  occurred on fuel-injected
vehicles,  the  observed  rate  of  Supers  among  fuel-injected
vehicles  would  be expected  to  be  less  than   for  carbureted
vehicles.  It was assumed that the  rate  of  occurrence of Supers
for  fuel-injected  vehicles  is  half  the  rate   for  carbureted
vehicles.

                          2*wsf = Wsc

If  we  then  solve  the  previous  equation  for  the  rate  of
occurrence   of  fuel-injected  Super  emitters,   we   get  the
following equation.

           W,f = 4 / ( 2*Ne*Me + Nf *Mf )
           W,f = 4 / ( 2*656*2.2092 + 122*1.8293  )
           W»f = 0.0012814 / 10,000 miles
           Wsc = 2*W,r = 0.0025628 / 10,000 miles

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                              -11-

The  rate  of  occurrence  of  Supers  is  assumed  to  increase
linearly with mileage starting at the  origin.   Unlike the High.
emitters, the rate  of  increase is not assumed to change beyond
50,000 miles.
                                              f
The  Super emitter  emission  level   magnitudes   (ZMS)  are  the
bag-by-bag  Super  emitter  emission  means  for  each  of  the
technology  categories.   As   with   the  High   emitters,   the
emission  levels  of the Super  emitters  are  assumed not  to
increase  with   age.    The  Super   emitter   emission   level
magnitudes are listed in Table 5.

3.4  Combined Deterioration Equations

As  indicated previously, the estimates  of  the rate at which
vehicle  emissions  increase  is a weighted sum  of  the separate
emission contributions of Normal, High and Super emitters,

     E =  (l-Wh-Ws)(ZMn+DFn*M) + WhZMh + WSZMS.

As  an  illustration, the combined FTP-CO  emissions of 1981 and
later,  3.4   gm/mi  CO-standard,  closed-loop  carbureted,  3-way
catalyst     with    oxidation    catalyst    (CLLP/OX3W/Carb),
non-tampered, light-duty vehicles are calculated to be:

     CO = (1 -  .0250M -  .002563M)(1.948 + .6459M)

               +  .0250(39.137)M  + .002563 (193.23)M

     CO = 1.948 + 2.0666M - 0.0178M2  (gm/mi)

This  equals  7.00  gm/mi  at  25,000   miles and  11.83  gm/mi  at
50,000  miles.    In  the model  the rate at which High emitters
occur  doubles   at   50,000  miles.   Beyond   50,000   miles,  Wh
becomes   0.0499*M   for  this  case   and   the  FTP  CO emission
equation  becomes:

     CO = -2.3403 +  3.0046M - 0.003389M2  (gm/mi)

FTP CO then  equals  11.83 gm/mi at 50,000  miles, 18.28 gm/mi at
75,000 miles, and 24.31 gm/mi at 100,000  miles.

A set  of emission levels are calculated  for  each  technology in
each model year using  the  appropriate  quadratic equations for
each  mileage  corresponding  to  the  model   year  anniversary.
These  emission  .levels  combine   the  emission   levels  of  the
Normal,  High and Super emitters in  each  technology group.  The
emission  levels of  the  technology groups  are  then weighted
together  at  each  anniversary mileage  by the  fraction of the
model  year   equipped with  each  technology.    These   technology
projections  are  described in  Table  6.

-------
                              -12-

The  combined  emission  levels  at  each  model year  anniversary
define  the  predicted  emission  levels  of  the  model.   For.
MOBILES, a  linear  Least Square  Regression is then  fit to the
predicted  emission  levels,  weighted by  the  vehicle  mileage
contribution  of  each  model  year anniversary  to the  vehicle
lifetime mileage accumulation.

Figure  1  shows  an  example  of a linear  fit  to  the  predicted
emission levels.   This  best  linear fit  is the equation used by
MOBILE3 to predict non-tampered emission levels.

-------
                              -13-

4.0  INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE BENEFITS

Inspection  and  Maintenance  (I/M)  short  tests  of  vehicle
exhaust emission  concentrations  are simple tests  that  can be
performed  cheaply and  in  a minimum  amount  of  time.   These
tests  include  an  idle  test  and a  two-speed  test  either
unloaded or loaded using  a  dynamometer.   The I/M  short tests
are  much  more  likely  to fail  Super   and  High  emitters  than
they are to fail Normal emitting vehicles.  This  fact is used
in   I/M   programs  to  identify   vehicles  which  most  need
maintenance and most contribute to the emissions  of the fleet
in excess of certification standards.

As  in  MOBILE2,  MOBILES uses  a modeling approach  to estimate
the  impact  of I/M on  vehicle  emissions  [4].   Actual  in-use
data of  the effects  on emission levels of  typical repairs as
a  result  of an operating  I/M program were not  available at
the  time  MOBILES was  released.   As  a  result,  many  of  the
assumptions used  in  the model  are based  on experience  with
vehicle owner behavior  in  I/M programs and laboratory repairs
of  1981 and later model year LDGVs.  When  new  information is
collected,  the  assumptions can  be  substituted  by observed
effects.   For  now,  the model  represents  EPA1 s  best estimate
of  the effects   of  I/M on  the emissions  of 1981  and later
model year LDGVs.

The  remainder  of this  section  deals  with  the  application of
three  typical  I/M  short tests  to the  EF non-tampered  LDGV
sample.  The three tests are:

            1)  Idle Test
            2)  2500/Idle Test
            3)  Loaded/Idle Test

4.1  Short  Test Data

The   Emission    Factor   Program   (EF)    sample   used   for
determination  of  I/M  program  credits  contains   1166  non-
tampered  light  duty vehicles  (LDGV).  The data  exclude  the
California  certified  vehicles.   Of  these,  668   (57%)  had
measured  FTP  HC  and FTP  CO emissions  less than  or  equal to
those  at  which  they  were certified (0.41 gm/mi for HC  and 3.4
or   7.0   gm/mi,  for   CO)   and   498   (43%)   exceeded  their
certification  standards for  either HC or  CO emissions.   The
FTP  HC and  CO emission and mileage means  for  the Normal, High
and  Super  emitters  among these  FTP  passes  and FTP failures
are  listed  in the following table.

-------
                              -14-

            FTP  HC and CO Emission and Mileage Means:
                 FTP passes versus FTP failures
                      FTP Passes         FTP Failures
                       Normals    Normals /  Highs /  Supers'

Sample Size              668         437  /    57  /    4

HC (grn/mi)             0.260       0.551  /  2.256 / 14.132
CO (gfn/mi)             2.851       6.713  / 37.087 / 193.23

Mileage(lOK)          1.4662      3.1048  / 4.8110 / 2.8157


The  Idle Test  tailpipe  emission levels  were  gathered  mainly
from  the   second   idle   in  neutral  of  the   four-mode  test
procedure.   In this  procedure  the  vehicle  is  tested at  curb
idle, with the idle speed held at 2500 rpm,  at  curb idle  again,
and finally  at curb idle with the vehicle transmission in drive
with  the brake on for  vehicles with automatic transmissions.
The  second   idle  measured  in this  procedure best  simulates  a
preconditioned idle test procedure.

The 2500/Idle  Test data for  this analysis were derived  mainly
from  the same four-mode   test  procedure.   In  this  case  the
emissions sampled  at  2500  rpm  and from  the   second  idle  in
neutral  are used.  Vehicles  must pass  both the 2500  rpm mode
and the  idle mode of this test.

The Loaded/Idle Test  data  for  this  analysis were  derived from
the  loaded  two-mode test  procedure.  Vehicles  must pass  both
the loaded high speed mode at 30 mph and idle mode in neutral.

Restart  test  procedure results  were substituted for the above
four-mode test data for all  vehicles manufactured  by  the Ford
Motor Company in the sample with restart procedure  results.   In
addition,  there  were  22  vehicles   in   the  sample for  which
neither  four-mode  test,  restart  test  nor loaded two-mode  test
data  were  available  and  for  these cars   the idle  emission
readings  taken   during   the   engine   parameter   check  were
substituted.

4.2   I/M Short Test Errors of Commission and Omission

Errors of  commission are vehicles which  fail an I/M short test
but which do not exceed  their  certification  standards  for HC or
CO emissions.  Errors  of  Omission-are vehicles  which  pass  the
I/M  short  test but which  exceed their  certification  standards
either for HC or CO emissions or both.

-------
                              -15-

I/M short  test  results for  vehicles  that had passed  or  failed
their FTP  criteria were  examined to  determine   the  errors  of
commission and omission, Ec and E0.

Table 7  lists the numbers  of  true failures and  passes  and the
number  of  false  failures  (errors  of  commission)  and  passes
(errors of omission)  for  each of the three I/M  short  tests and
for  the three  sets  of test  stringency  criteria (CO  and  HC
outpoints)  used in the model.

The number of correctly identified FTP  failures  increases with
increasing test  stringency.   About twice  as  many FTP  failures
fail  the  0.5%/100ppm  (CO  concentration/HC concentration)  test
criteria  as   fail  the  3.0%/300ppm cutpoints.   Similarly,  the
Loaded/Idle   Test   identifies   more   FTP  failures   than  the
2500/Idle Test which  in turn identifies more FTP  failures than
the basic Idle Test.

For a typical test,  the  Idle Test with  l.2%/220ppm  cutpoints,
57%  of  the  cars  are  correctly passed  and  3.1%  are  correctly
failed.  In  addition, this  test falsely passes  38%  (errors of
omission)  and falsely fails about  0.2% (errors  of  commission)
of  these  cars.   This  last category  is  of  special  interest.
Both  the  2500/Idle  test  and  the  Loaded/Idle  Test  have  more
errors  of  commission than the  Idle Test  does.   The Loaded/Idle
Test, however,  except for the  tightest cutpoints, has  a lower
error  of  commission  rate  than  the  2500/Idle Test.   Thus,  the
Loaded/Idle  Test  not only  appears  to  be both  more  stringent,
but more selective than the more easily used 2500/Idle Test.

4.3   I/M Short Test Identification Rates

The raw  I/M  failure rates  are easily calculated for each of the
various  I/M  short  tests  by   simply  dividing  the  number  of
failures  by   the  sample  size.   The  I/M short  tests,  however,
tend  to identify the highest emitters  in  each  group.   The model
for  the 1981 and  newer  vehicles, therefore, uses a  measure of
the  total  emissions  of the  vehicles  identified  by  the  short
test  to  quantify  the  impact   of  I/M.    The  short test  FTP
emission identification  rate (IDR)  tends to be  larger  than the
simple  failure  rate  and   can  be  different  for  HC  and  CO
emissions.   In the MOB1LE2 version of the 1981  and newer model
year  model,   the  IDR  was   determined  as  a  fraction of  only
emissions  in  excess of certification standards.

Table 8 is  a  listing for  each  I/M  short test  result  (pass or
fail)  of  the number  of  cars,  HC and  CO emission  means,  and
effective  identification   rates  by   emission  category.   The
effective  identification  rate   is  determined  by  computing the
total emissions identified by a particular combination of short
test  type  and short test cutpoint pair and dividing that amount
by  the  total emissions  observed in that  emission category for
the  sample.   The effective  identification rates  for HC  and CO
emission are  listed in Table 9.

-------
                              -16-

When the three tests are compared, the  Loaded/Idle  Test and the
2500/Idle Test  effective identification rates  are  greater than
those of the Idle Test in all cases.  Among  the  three levels of
test  stringency,   as  might   be  expected,   the  0.5%/100  ppm
criteria are  more effective, and  the 3.0%/300ppm  criteria are
least effective.

4.4  Effects of I/M

The model assumes  that when a High or Super emitting vehicle is
repaired to pass the I/M short test,  the emission  levels of the
repaired  vehicles  will,  on  average,   resemble  the  emission
levels of Normal  emitting  vehicles at  the same mileage.   As  a
result,  the  I/M  process is modeled  as reducing the  number of
High and Super  emitters  and  thereby increasing the  number .of
Normal  emitting  vehicles.   For  each  test  type   and cutpoint
combination  I/M  test  scenario,  the  IDR  rate  represents  the
fraction of  High  and Super  emitters  which  revert  to  Normal
emitting levels.   At each  inspection point  in  the  model  year
lifetime measured  in  mileage,  the   number  of  High  and  Super
emitting vehicles  is  reduced   by the  appropriate  IDR.    The
emission levels  with the reduced  number of  Highs  and Supers is
then calculated  and compared to the  non-I/M case  to determine
the I/M benefits  for that  scenario as a fraction of the non-I/M
case.

There are separate  IDR's for  HC and  CO emissions,  but the same
IDR's are used  for  all  technology types.   After the initial I/M
inspection,  the  IDR reduction  is  only  applied  to  the increase
in  the  number of High emitters since  the  last  I/M inspection.
The  IDR  for  Super  emitters  is   applied to  the total  number of
Super emitters in each inspection  cycle.

Since the model  only reduces  the  increase in the number of High
emitters since  the  last inspection,  there is always  a growing
fraction of  vehicles which I/M  is assumed never to detect.  It
is  rationalized  that if the  particular emission problem  which
caused the  vehicle to become a  High  emitter cannot be detected
at  the  first I/M  inspection,  then it  is  reasonable  to assume
that  the vehicle may  never be  detected  by the I/M program by
subseguent I/M inspections.  An  example of this  type of problem
would be  a  choke maladjustment, which  might cause  high overall
emission levels,  but might not  be   detected  by  a  short  test
performed on  a  fully warmed  engine.   This  assumption causes  a
portion  of  the  High emitting  vehicles to  always   remain  High
emitters and reduces the  overall assumed effectiveness  of I/M
programs.

Between  the  inspection  cycles  the   number  of  High  and   Super
emitters is  assumed to  increase.   However,  the effects  of I/M
are assumed  to  have destabilized  the normal  rate  of  increase.
Since  the  I/M  repairs  result  in a  larger  number  of  Normal

-------
                              -17-

emitting vehicles than would  be  expected in the absence  of  the
I/M program,  there  is assumed to be  a  greater  probability that
Normal emitting vehicles will become  High emitters proportional
to the  larger number of Normal emitters.  The  rate of increase
in Super emitting vehicles is assumed to be unaffected.

                                 Number of Normals After I/M
New Increase Rate = Basic Rate *
                                 Number of Normals Without I/M

The model assumes that I/M has no effect  on  the emission levels
of  Normal emitting  vehicles.   Some effect  might be  expected
since some fraction of Normal emitting vehicles  do  fail  the I/M
short  tests.    In  this  model,  however,   no  benefit  is  assumed
from I/M repairs on Normal emitting vehicles.

The above process  of  adjusting the number of Normal, High,  and
Super vehicles  is  performed  for each technology within  a model
year group and  new emission levels for the model year group at
its anniversary points.   The I/M benefits are then computed for
each model year group separately  by comparison to the  non-I/M
case for  that model year group.  The model  does not  report the
I/M benefits, for  each technology  in  each model year.   The I/M
benefits  are  computed from the predicted FTP  emission levels
before the levels are linearized.

-------
                              -18-

5.0  THE TECH IV CREDIT MODEL

The Appendix contains a listing of the  software  used to model
the emissions  and I/M effects  for  1981 and  later  model year
passenger cars  (LDGV).  The  listing  is  not the  version which
generated the  I/M credits contained in the  original  release
of MOBILES..  That version  contained  some coding  errors which
have been  identified and  corrected.   The errors only affect
the  use  of  short  tests  other  than  the  Idle  Test  using
cutpoints  other  than 1.2%  idle  CO  and  220  ppm idle  HC.
Alternate   I/M   credits   for   MOBILE3   reflecting   these
corrections are available  from  the  Technical  Support Staff in
Ann Arbor [(313) 668-4367].

The Tech  IV  Credit Model  was  designed to evaluate programs
which  inspect  vehicles once  a year  (annually).   The model,
however, has code which  allows  it to evaluate programs which
inspect vehicles  every other year  (biennially).  All  of  the
assumptions described in  this  report  apply  to   the biennial
option.   The  only  difference  is  the  extended  period  of
increase in the occurrence of High and  Super  emitters  between
inspections for the biennial  case.

MOBILES  uses   the results  of  the  Tech  IV  Credit Model  to
predict the reduction in the basic emission rates of 1981  and
newer  model  year  LDGV  for  I/M  scenarios.   In  addition,
MOBILES  assumes that  the presence  of  an  I/M   program  will
deter  tampering  of  emission control devices  and improper  use
of leaded fuel in catalyst vehicles.  The  resultant reduction
in  the fleet  emission . levels  predicted by  MOBILES  for  I/M
programs combine  the  effects of  the reduction  in  the basic
emission levels  directly attributable  to the I/M repairs  and
the  deterrence  value   of   the  program  on -tampering  and
misfueling.   The effect  of I/M  programs on the basic emission
levels  for pre-1981  model year LDGV in MOBILE2  is described
in  another  report  [5].    The   assumptions  used  for pre-1981
vehicles  in  MOBILES  are  nearly  identical  to those  used  in
MOBILE2,  having  been  updated  only   to  reflect  different
mileage accrual rates.

-------
                              -19-

                          References

1.    EPA  Inspection  and  Maintenance  Staff,  "Derivation  of
     1981 and  Later  Light-Duty  Vehicle Emission Factors  for
     Low-Altitude,  Non-California Areas".     EPA-AA-IMS/80-8,
     November 1980.

2.    Energy  and  Environmental  Analysis,   Inc.,   Report   of
     preliminary results  of Work  Assignment No.  35 Task  5,
     ."Forecasts  of   Emission  Control  Technology  1983-1990",
     for  EPA Contract  No.  68-01-6558  to  Phil  Lorang  dated
     November 28, 1983.

3.    Ed  LeBaron,  EPA Technical  Support Staff.   Memo to  Phil
     Lorang, EPA-TSS dated September 13, 1984.

4.    Dave  Hughes,    EPA   Inspection  and  Maintenance  Staff,
     "Derivation  of  I/M  Benefits  for  Post-1980  Light-Duty
     Vehicles   for   Low-Altitude,    Non-California   Areas".
     EPA-AA-IMS/81-2, Revised March 1981.

5.    James Rutherford,  EPA  Inspection  and  Maintenance  Staff,
     "Derivation  of  I/M  Benefits  for  Pre-1981  Light  Duty
     Vehicles   for   Low-Altitude,    Non-California   Areas".
     EPA-AA-IMS-82-3, June 1982.

-------
                     Figure 1.
       Regression Fit to The Composite
     1981 Model Year CO Emission Levels
  35
»
6
CO
OT
C
O
•i—»
to
CO
6
W. 10
O
O
  30-
   25-
   20-
   15-
DL,
EH

fc
   5-
                                       Legend

                                        Regression
                                      O Emission Levels
       I-1  Till  II  111  I  II  III
     0  1 23  4 5  6  7 8  9  10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

         Vehicle Mileage In 10,000 Mile Increments

-------
                 TABLE 1

      FTP Emission and Mileage Means
by Model Year and Certification Standards
MYR-Stds(HC/CO/NOx)

1981-.41/7.0/0.7
Normals
Highs
All
1981-. 41/3. 4/1.0
Normals
Highs
Supers
All
1982-. 41/3. 4/1.0
Normals
1983-. 41/3. 4/1.0
Normals
Highs
All
1981-. 41/7. 0/1.0
Normals
Highs
Supers
All
1982-. 41/7. 0/1.0
Normals
1981-. 41/7. 0/2.0
Normals
1982-. 41/7. 0/2.0
Normals
1980-. 41/9. 0/1.0
Normals
Highs
All
1980-1983 Myrs.
Normals
Highs
Supers
All
1981-1983 Myrs.
Normals
Highs
Supers
'All
Sample
Size

196
4
200

372
25
3
400

30

47
1
48

346
27
1
374

107

6

1

114
12
126

1219
69
4
1292

1 105
57
4
1166
HC
(qm/mi)

0.319
1.618
0.345

0.375
2.778
15.327
0.637

0.265

0.299
2.080
0.336

0.452
1.873
10.550
0.582

0.295

0.327

0.320

0.346
1 .363
0.443

0.372
2. 101
14.132
0.507

0.375
2.256
14. 132
0.514
CO
(gm/mi)

3.94
39.51
4.65

3.68
42.98
172.69
7.40

2.59

3.14
8.89
3.26

5.90
32.31
254.87
8.47

3.77

4.13

3.30

4.95
37.05
8.00

4.43
37.08
193.23
6.76

4.38
37.09
193.23
6.63
NOx
(qm/mi)



0.584




0.800

0.607



0.731




0.845

•0.698

1.360

1.800



0.831




0.771




0.764
Mileage
(10k-mi)

1.0775
2.3644
1.1032

2.7741
5.7758
2.7296
2.9614
*
0.6965

1.4653
3.5198
1.5081

2.5986
4.3279
3.0738
2.7247

0.8003

2.9857

0.6041

1.7577
2.9421
1.8705

2.0809
4.4860
2.8157
2.2116

2.1142
4.8110
2.8157
2.2484

-------
                                 TABLE 2

           Distribution of Non-Tampered Light-Duty Vehicles
           by Technology, Model Year and Emission Standards


Model Year      1981  1982  1983  1981  1981  1981  1982  1982  1980
HC Std.
CO Std.
NO Std.
Normal-Emitters
CLLP/OX3W/Carb
CLLP/ 3WC/Carb
CLLP/OX3W/FI
CLLP/ 3WC/FI
OPLP/OX3W/Carb
OPLP/ 3WC/Carb
OPLP/Oxid/Carb
OPLP/None/Carb
All Normals
High-Emitters
CLLP/OX3W/Carb
CLLP/ 3WC/Carb
CLLP/OX3W/FI
CLLP/ 3WC/FI
OPL?/OX3W/Carb"
OPLP/ 3WC/Carb
OPLP/Oxid/Carb
All Highs
Suoer-Emitters
CLLP/OX3W/Carb
All Vehicles
.41
3.4 .
1.0

165
34
3
16
58
3
93
—
172

14
3
-
-
8
-
—
25.

3
400
.41
3.4
1.0

4
3
-
7
2
3
1 1
—
30

_
-
-
-
-
-
—
0

-
30
.41
3.4
1.0

5
-
9
25
8
-
-
—
47

_
-
1
-
-
-
—
T

-
48
.41
7.0
0.7

55
63
8
13
28
5
24
—
T96

2
1
--
1
-
-
—
?

-
200
.41
7.0
1.0

110
126
8
-
63
4
35
- —
"346

6
1 1
-
. -
10
-
—
21

1
374
.41
7.0
2.0

«
5
-
-
-
-
1
—
6

_
-
-
-.
-
-
—
0

-
6
.41
7.0
1.0

35
9
3
28
28
-
4
—
T0~7

...
.
-
-
-
-
—
0

-
107
.41 .41
7.0 9.0
2.0 1.0

10
1 48
2
11
6
2
30
5
T TT4

2
' - 7
-
- -
-
1
2
o TI

-
1 126


All

384
289
33
100
193
17
198
5
T2T9

24
22
1
1
18
1
2
19

4
1292

-------
                        TABLE 3

 Normal-Emitter Deterioration Factors for Non-Tampered
    Light-Duty Vehicles by Bag and Technology Group
                   Deterioration Factors (gm/mi/10k-miles)
                  	by Technology Type	
FTP (All)

   HC
   CO
   NOx

FTP Bag  1

  • HC1
   C01
   N01

FTP Bag  2

   HC2
   C02
   N02

FTP Bag  3

   HC3
   C03
   NO 3
                  CLLP/3W
0.04998
0.6459
0.09534
0.11907
1.6554
0.09324
0.03304
0.3777
0.08205
0.03067
0.3988
0.12259
                 OPLP/3W
0.04507
0.1713
0.07692
0.08728
0.7530
0.06917
0.02780
0.0000
0.07539
0.04670
0.2001
0.08572
               Oxidation
0.02681
0.4638
0.01821
0.09240
1.4863
0.00121
0.00911
0.2053
0.02323
0.01129
0. 1824
0.02156

-------
                               TABLE 4

                Normal Emitter  Zero-Mile Intercepts
                 for  Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles
                                Zero-Mile  Intercepts  (gm/mi)
  Technology

  Model  Years
  CO Standard

   FTP HC
   FTP CO
   FTP NOx

  Bag 1  HC
  Bag 1  CO
  Bag 1  NOx

  Bag 2  HC
  Bag 2  CO
  Bag 2  NOx

  Bag 3  HC
  Bag 3  CO
  Bag 3  NOx
  Technology

  Model Years
  CO Standard

   FTP HC
   FTP CO
   FTP NOx

  Bag 1 HC
  Bag 1 CO
  Bag 1 NOx

  Bag 2 HC
  Bag 2 CO
  Bag 2 NOx

  Bag 3 HC
  Bag 3 CO
  Bag 3 NOx
Closed-Loop
1981 +
3.4
0.2260
1.948
0.5328
0.5271
5.550
1.0096
0.1117
0.612
0.3870
0.2127
1.748
0.5170
1981
7.0
0.3056
3.201
0.6942
0.8780
10.927
1.0788
0.1056
0.535
0.5310
0.2521
2.405
0.7127
Open-Loop 3-Way
1981 +
3.4
0.3229
2.823
0.5626
0.6930
7.665
0.8423
0. 1803
0.542
0.4506
0.3136
3.199
0.5628
1981
7.0
0.3700
5.775
0.4101
0.5573
9.568
0.7819
0.2705
3.535
0.2722
0.4175
6.827
0.3909
OX3W*
1982+
7.0
0.2513
2.994
0.6717
0.7141
10.092
1.0926
0.0951
0.475
0.5108
0.1959
2.392
0.6573
Catalyst
1982+
7.0
0.3435
4.395
0.6933
0.5744
10.212
0.8957
0.2319
1.821
0.6504
0.3795
4.836
0.6231
Closed-Loop 3WC*
1981 +
3.4
0.2260
1.948
0.5328
0.5271
5.550
1.0096
0.1117
0.612
0.3870
0.2127
1.748
0.5170
Ox
1981 +
3.4
0.2768
2.507
0.7592
0.7663
6.867
1 .0717
0. 1195
1 .001
0.5935
0.2087
2.070
0.8380
1981
7.0
0.3048
4.277
0.5433
0.7798
10.925
1.1605
0.1370
2.133
0.3938
0.2621
3.302
0.3597
1982+
7.0
0.2041
2.824
0.5510
0.6145
6.710
1.0958
0.0771
1.654
0.3864
0.1333
2.091
0'.4203
idation Catalyst
1981
7.0
0.2220
3.398
0.6735
0.5366
11 .870
1.0702
0.1178
0.722
0.4874
0.1786
2.048
0.7283
1982+
7.0
0.1801
2.787
0.6658
0.5011
9.454
1.0896
0.0967
1 . 125
0.4115
0.1034
0.958
0.8221
*Includes both carbureted and fuel injected vehicles.

-------
                           TABLE 5

        Mean Emission Levels of High and Super Emitters
                           Mean Emission Levels (qm/mi)
Closed-Loop Carb

   FTP

  Bag 1
  Bag 2
  Bag 3

Clos.ed-Loop FI

   FTP

  Bag 1
 . Bag 2
  Bag 3

Open-Loop 3-Way

   FTP

  Bag 1
  Bag 2
  Bag 3
                      High Emitters
                       HC       CO
2.2997 / 39.137

4.6408 / 61.181
1.7954 / 35.503
1.4857 / 29.354
2.3556 / 38.212

4.2419 / 53.030
1.9737 / 36.496
1.6574 / 30.292
2.2556 / 34.607

3.6050 / 50.422
1.7850 / 30.528
2.1094 / 30.361
                        Super Emitters
                          HC       CO
14.132  / 193.23

30.937  / 181.02
10.867  / 210.72
 7.508  / 169.22
10.560  / 191.72

 8.090  / 170.45
12.645  / 215.45
 8.460  / 162.55
Note: There were no Super emitters observed in the OPLP 3-Way
      category sample. No High or Super emitters were observed
      in the Oxidation Catalyst category sample.

-------
                          TABLE 6

          Technology Distribution by Model Year


                      Projected Fleet Percentage (%)
Model Years              1981    -            1982
CO Standard           3.4     7.0         3.4     7.0
Technology

CLLP/OX3W/Carb       23.1    15.1         3.6    32.7
CLLP/ 3WC/Carb        4.5    18.1         3.8    12.7
CLLP/OX3W/FI          1.0     1.9         1.4     2.3
CLLP/ 3WC/FI          2.3     4.2         5.6     9.0
OPLP 3-Way            7.6     7.5         2.3    12.8
OPLP Oxidation       10.3     4.4        10.1     3.7

Percentage           48.8    51.2        26.8    TO


Model Years       1983   1984  1985-1986  1987-1989   1990+
Technology
CLLP/OX3W/Carb
CLLP/ 3WC/Carb
CLLP/OX3W/FI
CLLP/ 3WC/FI
OPLP 3-Way
OPLP Oxidation
45.3
2.1
27.6
13.1
11.9
43.4
11.9
40.0
4.7
23.5
11.1
61.0
4.4
11.2
8.5
79.5
0.8
4.0
6.2
88.8
1.0

-------
  ICO/IHC
 Cutpoints

Idle Test
                       TABLE 7

Combined Sample I/M Short Test Failure Rate Summary

                  Pass Short Test        Fail Short Test
Emission
Category
                Pass FTP   Fail FTP
Pass FTP  Fail FTP
0.5%/100ppm   Normal
              High
              Super
              All

1.2%/220ppm   Normal
              High
              Super
              All

3.0%/300ppm   Normal
              High
              Super
              All

2500/Idle Test

0.5%/100ppm   Normal
              High
              Super
              All

1.2%/220ppm   Normal
              High
              Super
              All

3.0%/300ppm   Normal
              High
              Super
              All

Loaded/Idle Test

0.5%/100ppm   Normal
              High
              Super
              All

1.2%/220ppm   Normal
              High
              Super
              All

3.0%/300ppm   Normal
              High
              Super
              All
                 661        411        7         26
                             32        -         25
                              1        -          3
                 661 (57%)  444 (38%)  7 (0.6%)  54 (4.6%)

                 666        421        2         16
                             40        -         17
                              1        -          3
                 666 (57%)  462 (40%)  2 (0.2%)  36 (3.1%)

                 666        432        25
                             47        -         10
                              1        -          3
                 666 (57%)  480 (41%)  2 (0.2%)  18 (1.5%)
                 648
                      401        20        36
                       25         -        32
                        1         -         3
           •648  (56%)  427 (37%)  20 (1.7%) 71 (6.1%)
                 656
                      414        12        23
                       34         -        23
                        1         -         3
           656  (56%)  449 (39%)  12 (1.0%) 49 (4.2%)

           662        431        6          6
                       43        -         14
                        1        -          3
           662  (57%)  475 (41%)  6 (0.5%)  23 (2.0%)
                 647
                      383        21        54
                        16         -        41
                       ' 1         -         3
           647  (55%)  400  (34%)  21 (1.8%) 98  (8.4%)

           659        419        9         18
                        28        -         29
                        1        -          3
           659  (57%)  448  (38%)  9  (0.8%)  50  (4.3%)

           664        429        4          8
                        39        -         18
                        1        -          3
           664  (57%)  469  (40%)  4  (0.3%)  29  (2.5%)

-------
                       TABLE 8

Mean Emission Levels of High and Super Emitter Vehicles
              Failing I/M Short Tests
                         Mean Emissions
                         Emissions
                         Identified
ICO/IHC Sample
Cutpoints Size
All Hiqhs
Fail Idle Test
0.5%/100ppm
1.2%/220ppm
3.0%/300ppm
2500/Idle Test
0.5%/100ppm
1.2%/220ppm
3.0%/300ppm
Loaded/Idle Test
0.5%/100ppm
1.2%/220ppm
3.0%/300ppm
57
25
17
10
32
23
14
41
. 29
18
(qm/mi)
HC
2.2558
2.6492
2.8659
2.8770
2.5834
2.8191
3.0564
2.3315
2.5383
2.8333
CO
37.086
46.232
55.949
59.796
48.378
57.501
64.024
43.158-
51.922
57.057
(IDR)
HC
0.515
0.379
0.224
0.643
. 0.504
0.333
0.743
0.572.
' 0.397
CO
0.547
0.450
0.283
0.732
0.626
0.424
0.837
0.712
0.486
All Supers

Failing All
I/M Short Tests

Carbureted

Fuel-Injected*
      14.132  193.23
3     10.557  212.77

2     10.560  191.72
0.560  0.826

1.000  1.000
* Only two of the Super emitters were judged as possible
  for fuel-injected vehicles.

-------
         APPENDIX
  Tech IV Credit Model
Software Program Listing

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THIS IS THE APPENDIX 4 PROGRAM DEVELOPED FOR
MOBILES


THIS PROGRAM CALCULATES I/M BENEFITS FOR THE POST- 1980 FLEET.
EITHER ANNUAL AND BIENNIAL

A* SIX TECHS **

** SEVEN MODEL YEAR GROUPS **

(UPDATED 8/23/84)



ESTABLISH VARIABLES.


BI - 1 : 1/3/5 SCHEDULE.
BI = 2 : 2/4/6 SCHEDULE.
BI = 3 : ANNUAL SCHEDULE.

STD - 1 : 1981 MODEL YEAR 4 : 1984 7 : 1990+
STD = 2 : 1982 5 : 1985-6
STD = 3 : 1983 6 : 1987-9

INTEGER BI,BY,P,B,T,IDR,LAST,YR,AGE1ST,IAGE,NAGE,STD,IY,STP,INCR
INTEGER IYR,IP,IB,IT,D,II,JJ,KK,LL,J
REAL KINK

"KINK" IS THE KINK IN THE HIGH EMISSION DETERIORATION RATE
AFTER 50,000 MILES. IF KINK=1, THERE IS NO KINK.
IF KINK=2, THE DETERIORATION RATE DOUBLES AFTER 50K MILES.

KINK=2.0
• BI - 3

COMMON/INPUT/SHO , SSO , GH , GS , ESO , DS , ENOO , DN , EHO , DH
COMMON/FRC/FRAC
COMMON/REG/EWOC (20,2,3,5,9), EWC (20,2,3,5,9)
COMMON/TECH/EWO (20 , 2 , 5 , 6 , 9) , EW (20 , 2 , 5 , 6 , 9)
COMMON/BENE/ CA (20 , 20 , 2 , 5) , CZ (20 , 20 , 2 , 5) , CWO (20,2,5), INT
COMMON/BAG/ZML2 (5,7,3), DET2 (5,7, 3).
COMMON/ODOM/RATE,MILE,SRATE,MDIF
COMMON/MACC/JMILE
COMMON/IMS/INSP,FINSP,STD,IDR,IY,T,B
COMMON/BASE/EN , EH , ES , HIGH , SUPER , WN

LOGICAL INSP
LOGICAL FINSP(3)

REAL SRATE (2,2), RATE (9,2), MILE (20)
REAL SUMX(2) ,SUMXX(2),SUMY(2) ,SUMXY(2)
REAL HIGH (20 , 2) , INT (2,5,6), SUPER (20 , 2)
REAL GHI,GH2,GH3
REAL SHO(2,5,6) ,SSO(2,5,6) ,GH(2,5,6) ,GS(2,5,6)

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REAL ESO(2,5,6) ,ENO(2,5,6) ,EHO(2,5,6) ,ENOO(2,5,6, 3)
REAL DS(2,5,6), DN(2,5,6), DH(2,5,6)
REAL EWO,EW,FRAC(6,9)
REAL MDIF(20)
REAL ES (20, 2), EN (20, 2) ,EH(20,2)
REAL WN(20,2) ,WNO(2,5, 5) ,DWN(2,5,5) ,ENZ(20,2) ,ENA(20,2)
REAL SZ(20,9,5) ,SA(20,9,5) ,HZ(20,9,5) ,HA(20,9,5)
REAL NZ(20,9,5),NA(20,9,5),SS,SH,SN

RATE IS THE EFFECTIVE IDENTIFICATION RATE OF HIGHS
FOR EACH TEST/CUTPOINT COMBO AND BY POLLUTANT

CALCULATE MILEAGE BETWEEN EACH ONE YEAR INTERVAL

MDIF(1) - MILE(1)

DO 10 YR=2,20
MDIF(YR) = MILE(YR) - KILE(YR-I)
CONTINUE

FIRST LOOP IS IDR

IDR TEST CUTPOINTS (HC/CO)
1 IDLE .5/100
2 IDLE 1.2/220
3 IDLE 3.0/300
4 2500/IDLE .5/100
5 2500/IDLE 1.2/220
6 2500/IDLE 3.0/300
7 LOADED .5/100
8 LOADED 1.2/220
9 LOADED • 3.0/300

DO 600 STD=1,7
DO 600 IDR=1,9



THIS NEXT LOOP IS FOR 19.81 & 1982 MODEL YEAR GROUPS
SO THAT THE PROGRAM WILL LOOP FOR 3.4 AND 7.0

INCR-1
STP=1
IF (STD.NE. 1) GO TO 30
INCR=1
STP=2
GO TO 40
IF (STD.NE. 2) GO TO 40
INCR=2
STP-3

DO 440 IY-1,STP,INCR


THIS IS THE FIRST PART OF THE MOBILES. APPENDIX4
MODEL. THIS PART WILL CALCULATE THE RELATIVE SIZE
OF THE FLEET AND OTHER BASIC NON-I/M PARAMETERS.

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.RETRIEVE THE CORRECT DATA FOR NORMALS FROM BLOCK DATA
DEPENDING UPON MODEL YEAR AND 3.4/7.0 LOOP

LL = 1
IF(STD.EQ.1.AND.IY.EQ.1) LL=1
IF(STD.EQ. 1.AND.IY.EQ.2) LL=2
IF(STD.EQ.2.AND.IY.EQ.2) LL=3

DO 50 11=1,2
DO 50 JJ-1,5
DO 50 KK=1,6
ENO(II,JJ,KK) - ENOO(II,JJ,KK,LL)
CONTINUE


.THE NEXT LOOP IS BY TECHNOLOGY

TECH = 1 OXIDATION/3-WAY CATALYST, CLOSED-LOOP, CARBURATED.
TECH = 2 3-WAY CATALYST, CLOSED-LOOP, CARBURATED.
TECH = 3 OXIDATION/3-WAY CATALYST, CLOSED-LOOP, FUEL INJECTED
TECH = 4 3-WAY CATALYST, CLOSED-LOOP, FUEL INJECTED.
TECH = 5 3-WAY CATALYST, OPEN-LOOP, ALL
TECH = 6 OXIDATION CATALYST, ALL

DO 420 T=1,6


.LOOP BY BAG (1=FTP; 2=BAG1; 3=BAG2; 4=BAG3 ; 5=BAGGED IDLE)

DO 4 1 0 B= 1 , 4

.CALCULATE CATAGORY SIZE AT ZERO MILE POINTS


DO 100 P=1,2
SS = SSO(P,B,T)
SH = SHO(P,B,T)
SN = 1.0 - SS - SH

.CALCULATE FLEET ZERO' MILE EMISSIONS

INT(P.B.T) = SS * ESO(P,B,T)
* + SH * EHO(P,B,T)
* + SN * ENO(P,B,T)
CONTINUE

.CALCULATE EMISSION LEVELS
FOR EACH CATAGORY BY VEHICLE AGE

DO 120 YR-1,20

DO 110 P-1,2

.SET NON-I/M EMISSION LEVELS FOR THE CATEGORIES.

ES(YR,P) - ESO(P,B,T) + ( DS(P,B,T) * MILE(YR).)

-------
                                                                             Page 4
175           EH(YR,P) = EHO(P,B,T) +  ( DH(P,B,T) * MILE(YR) )
176           EN(YR,P) = ENO(P,B,T) +  ( DN(P,B,T) * MILE(YR) )
177     CC
178     CC	SET WITH-I/M LEVELS FOR  "NORMALS"
179     CC
180           WN(YR,P) = ENO(P,B,T) +  ( DN(P,B,T) * MILE(YR) )
181     CC
182     CC	COMPUTE NUMBER OF "HIGH" EMITTERS WITHOUT INSPECTION PROGRAK.
183     CC
184           HIGH(YR.P) = SHO(P,B,T)  + GH(P,B,T) * MILE(YR)
185     CC            '
186     CC	THIS CODE "KINKS" THE INCREASE IN "HIGH" EMITTERS
187     CC    AFTER 50,000 MILES.
188     CC
189           IF(KILE(YR-1).GT.5.0)
T90          * HIGH(YR,P)=HIGH(YR-1,P)-i-KINK*GH(P,B,T)*MDIF(YR)
191     CC
192     CC	THIS ASSUMES LINEAR INCREASE IN NUMBER OF "SUPER" EMITTERS
193     CC
194           SUPER(YR.P) = SSO(P,B,T) + GS(P,B,T) * MILE(YR)
195     CC
196     CC	COMPUTE WITHOUT-I/M SIZES OF CATAGORIES
197     CC
198           SH - HIGH(YR.P)
199           SS = SUPER(YR.P)
200           SN = 1.0 - SS - SH
201     CC                                                 .
202     CC	COMPUTE WITHOUT-I/M COMPOSITE EMISSION LEVELS.
203     CC
204           CWO(YR,P,B) = ss * ES(YR,P)
205          *           + SH * EH(YR,P)
206          *           + SN * EN(YR,P)
207     CC                     •                                .
208       110 CONTINUE
209     CC
210       120 CONTINUE
211     CC
212           CALL IMSUB(BI.KINK)
213  .         CALL BENEFT(T,B,IDR,BI) .
214     CC
215       410 CONTINUE
216     CC
217       420 CONTINUE
218     CC
219           CALL MUSCH(STD,IY,IDR)
220     CC
221       440 CONTINUE
222     CC
223           IF(IDR.GT.I) GO TO 600
224           CALL BAGF(STD)
225     CC
226       600 CONTINUE
227     CC
228     CC...CALCULATE NOX EMISSIONS
229     CC
230           CALL NOXEF
231     CC
232     CC...WRITE OUT TABLES

-------
                                                                             Page  5
233     CC
234           CALL OUTPUT
235     CC
236            STOP
237          'END

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SUBROUTINE. IMSUB(BI ,KINK)

IN THIS SECTION THE NUMBER OF "HIGHS" AND "SUPERS"
REMAINING AFTER I/M IS DETERMINED AND I/M EMISSION
LEVELS ARE CALCULATED FOR THE "SAWTEETH".

COMMON /ODOM/RATE , MILE , SRATE , MDIF
COMMON/MACC/JMILE
COMMON/IMS/INSP,FINSP,STD,IDR,IY,T,B
COMMON/BASE/EN , EH , ES , H I GH , SUPER , WN
COMMON/BENE/ CA(20, 20,2, 5) ,CZ(20,20,2, 5) ,CWO(20,2,5) , INT
COMMON/INPUT/SHO,SSO,GH,GS,ESO,DS,ENOO,DN,EHO,DH

LOGICAL INSP,FINSP(3)
INTEGER AGE1ST,BY,P,BI,STD,IDR,IY,T,B,YR

REAL KINK
REAL EN (20, 2) ,EH(20,2) ,ES(20,2) ,WN(20,2)
REAL HIGH (20 , 2) , SUPER (20,2)
REAL SHO (2 , 5 , 6) , SSO (2 ,-5 , 6) , GH (2 , 5 , 6) , GS (2 , 5 , 6)
REAL ENOO(2,5,6,3),DN(2,5,6)
REAL EHO(2,5,6),DH(2,5,6)
REAL ESO(2,5,6),DS(2,5,6)
REAL MILE(20) .RATE (9, 2) ,SRATE(2,2) ,MDIF(20)
.REAL NZ(20,9,5),NA(20,9,5)
REAL HZ(20,9,5),HA(20,9,5)
REAL SZ(20,9,5),SA(20,9,5)
REAL ENZ (20 , 2) , ENA (20 , 2)

..INSP USED TO DETERMINE IF AN INSPECTION OCCURS THAT YEAR.

INSP = FINSP(BI)
AGE 1ST = 1

VARIABLE 'BY' REPRESENTS YEARS SINCE PROGRAM START
VARIABLE 'YR1 REPRESENTS AGE OF VEHICLE

DO 290 BY- 1,1 9

YR = AGE1ST + BY - 1

DO 280 P=1,2

CATEGORY SIZES BEFORE AND AFTER INSPECTION

HZ = SIZE OF "HIGH" CATAGORY BEFORE INSPECTION
HA = SIZE OF "HIGH" CATAGORY AFTER INSPECTION

SZ = SIZE OF "SUPER" CATAGORY BEFORE INSPECTION
SA = SIZE OF "SUPER" CATAGORY AFTER INSPECTION

SIDR = SRATE(P,1)
IF(T.GT.2) SIDR = SRATE(P,2)

IF( BY.GT.1 ) GO TO 130

	 THE FIRST INSPECTION YEAR

-------
                                                                               Page  7
 295      CC
 296            HZ(YR,IDR,P)  = HIGH(YR.P)
 297            HA(YR,IDR,P)  = HIGH(YR.P) * ( 1.0 - RATE(lDR.P) )
 298            IF(.NOT.INSP)  HA(YR,IDR,P) = HZ(YR,IDR,P)
 299      CC
 300            SZ(YR,IDR,P)  = SUPER(YR,P)
 301            SA(YR,IDR,P)  = SUPER(YR.P) * ( 1.0 - SIDR )
 302            IF(.NOT.INSP)  SA(YR,IDR,P) = SZ(YR,IDR,P)
•303      CC
 304            IF( YR.EQ.1 )  GO TO 130
 305      CC
 306              CA(AGE1ST,YR-1,P,B)  = CWO(YR-1,P,B)
 307      CC
 308      CC...LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURENCE AND GROWTH OF "HIGH" CATEGORY.
 309      CC
 310      CC   GHI = GROWTH RATE OF "HIGH" CATAGORY AFTER I/M  REPAIRS
 3 1 1      CC
 312        130 GROWTH - GH(P,B,T)
 313            IF (MILE(YR-1).GT.5.0)  GROWTH=KINK*GH(P,B,T)
 314      CC
 315            GHI = GROWTH
 316           *    * (1.0-HA(YR,IDR,P)-SA(YR,IDR,P))
 317           *    / (1.0-HIGH(YR,P)-SUPER(YR.P))
 318      CC
 319      CC....COMPUTE NUMBER OF "HIGH" EMITTERS IN THE NEXT'YEAR.
 320      CC
 321            HZ(YR+1,IDR,P) = HA(YR,IDR,P) +  GHI * MDIF(YR+1)
 322            IF(HZ(YR+1,IDR,P).GT.HIGH(YR+1,P)) HZ(YR+1,IDR,P)=HIGH(YR+1,P)
 323      CC
 324            HA(YR+1,IDR,P) = HIGH(YR-M ,P) *  (l.O - RATE(lDR.P))
 325.          IF(INSP.AND.BI.NE.3) HA(YR+1, IDR.P) = HZ(YR-M ,.IDR,P)   •
 326      CC
 327      CC	COMPUTE NUMBER OF "SUPER"  EMITTERS IN THE NEXT YEAR.
 328      CC    GROWTH RATE OF SUPERS AFTER I/M  IS SAKE  AS  WITHOUT I/M.
 329      CC
 330            SZ(YR+1,IDR,P) = SA(YR,IDR,P) +  GS (P,B,T)*KDIF(YR+1)
 331            SA(YR+1,IDR,P) = SUPER(YR.P) *  ( 1.0 - SIDR )
 332            IF(INSP.AND.BI.NE.3) SA(YR+1,IDR.P) = SZ(YR+1,IDR.P)
 333      CC
 334    .  CC	"NORMAL" CATEGORY SIZE BEFORE AND AFTER  INSPECTION
 335      CC
 336            NZ(YR,IDR,P) = 1.00 - SZ(YR,IDR,P) - HZ(YR,IDR,P)
 337            NA(YR,IDR,P) = 1.00 - SA(YR,IDR,P) - HA(YR,IDR,P)
 338      CC
 339      CC	COMPUTE EMISSIONS BEFORE AND AFTER I/K. FOR  "NORMALS"
 340      CC    ASSUMES THAT WITH I/M NORMALS WILL PRODUCE  EMISSION REDUCTIONS.
 341      CC
 342            IF(.NOT.INSP.AND.BY.EQ.1)  GOTO  140
 343            IF(INSP.AND.BY.LE.2) GO  TO 150
 344.           GO TO 160
 345      CC
 346  .      140  ENZ(YR.P)  = EN(YR,P)
 347            ENA(YR.P)  = EN(YR,P)
 348            GO TO 180

 349      CC                          .          .
 350        150  ENZ(YR.P)  - EN(YR,P)
 351            ENA(YR.P)  = WN(YR,P)

-------
                                                                              Page 8
 352            GO  TO  180
 353      CC
 354       160   ENZ(YR.P)  =  ENA(YR-1,P)  +  DN(P,B,T)  * MDIF(YR)
 355            ENA(YR.P)  =  WN(YR,P)                         "
 356      CC                                                    '
 357       180   CONTINUE  '
 358      CC
 359      CC
•360    .  CC	COMPOSITE  EMISSIONS  BEFORE AND  AFTER INSPECTION.
 361      CC
 362      CC
 363            CZ(AGE1ST,YR,P,B)  =  SZ(YR,IDR,P)*ES(YR,P)
 364           *                  +  NZ(YR,IDR,P)*ENZ(YR,P)
 365           *                  +  HZ(YR,IDR,P)*EH(YR,P)
 366            CA(AGE1ST,YR,P,B)  =  SA(YR,IDR.P)*ES(YR,P)
 367           *                  +  NA(YR,IDR,P)*ENA(YR,P)
 368           *                  +  HA(YR,IDR,P)*EH(YR,P)
 369            IF(.NOT.INSP)  CA(AGE1ST,YR.P.B)  =  CZ(AGE1ST,YR.P.B)
 370      CC
 371      CC
 372      CC	EMISSIONS  AT THE 20TH  YEAR (BOUNDARY CONDITION).
 373      CC
 374      CC
 375            IF(YR.GT.t)  GO TO 280
 376            G20 =  KINK * GH(P,B,T)
 377           *    *  (1.0-HA(19,IDR,P)-SA(19,IDR,P))
 378           *    /  (1.0-HIGH(19,P)-SUPER(19,P))
 379            HZ(20,IDR,P)  = HA(l9,IDR,p)  + G20  *  MDIF(20)
 380            SZ(20,IDR,P)  = SA(19,IDR,P)  + GS(P,B,T)  * KDIF(20)
 381            NZ(20,IDR,P)  = 1.0 - SZ(20,IDR,P)  -  HZ(20,IDR,P)
 382      CC                                                      -
 383            CZ(AGE1ST,20,P,B)  =  SZ(20,IDR,P)*ES(20,P)
 384           *                  +  NZ(20,IDR,P)*EN(20,P)
 385           *                 • +  HZ (20, IDR, P)''-EH (20,P)
 386      CC
 387        280 CONTINUE
 388      CC
 389            IF(BI.NE.3)  INSP = .NOT.  INSP
 390      CC
 391   .     290 CONTINUE
 392      CC
 393        999 RETURN
 394            END

-------
                                                                              Page 9
395            SUBROUTINE BENEFT(T,B,IDR.Bl)
.395     CC
397     CC
398     CC     THIS  SECTION CALCULATES REDUCTIONS BY COMPARING EMISSIONS
399     CC     WITH  AND WITHOUT I/K ON JANUARY 1ST DATES .
400.    CC    'SINCE MODEL YEAR INTRODUCTION IS ON OCTOBER 1ST.,  THIS
401     CC     REQUIRES A 75/25 STAGGERING.
402     CC
403     CC
404   .         COKKON/BENE/ CA(20,20,2,5),CZ(20,20,2,5),CWO(20,2,5),INT
405            COMKON/TECH/ EWO(20,2,5,6,9),EW(20,2,5,6,9)
406     CC             '

407            REAL  EWO,EW,INT(2,5,6)
408            INTEGER AGE1ST,BY,P,B,T,IDR.BI,YR.LAST
409     CC
410     CC
411            AGE1ST = 1
412     CC
413            DO 350 BY=1,19
414              YR  «• AGE1ST + BY - 1
415            DO 350  P-1,2
416     CC
417            IF(AGE1ST.GT.1) GO TO 310
418            IF(YR.GT.l) GO TO 300
419     CC
420             EW(1,P,B,T,IDR) = .75*(.625*CZ(AGE1ST,1,P,B) + .375*INT(P,B,T))
421           *         + .25*(.875*CA(AGE1ST,1,P,B) + .125*CZ(AGE1ST,2,P,B) )
422             EWO(l,P,B,T,IDR) = .15* (.625*CWO(1 ,P,B)  + .375*INT(P,B,T))
423           *   '       + .25*(.875*CWO(l,P,B) + .125*CWO(2,P,B))
424.    C      GO TO 340
425             GO TO 350
426     CC
427        300  EW(YR,P,B,T,IDR)- = . 75* (. 625*CZ (AGE1ST, YR,P,B)  .
428           *             + .375*CA(AGE1ST,YR-1,P,B) )
429           *       '      + .25*(.875*CA(AGE1ST,YR,P,B)
430           *             + .125*CZ(AGE1ST,YR+1,P,B) )
431             GO TO 330
432     CC
433   .     310 GO TO (300,7,8,7,8,7,8,7,8,7,8,7,8,7,8,7,8,7,8,7).AGE1ST
434     CC
435          7 IF(BI.EQ.l) IAGE = AGE1ST + 1
436            IF(BI.EQ.I) NAGE = AGE1ST - 1
437            IF(BI.EQ.2) IAGE = AGE 1ST - 1
438            IF(BI.EQ.2) NAGE = AGE 1ST - 1
439            GO TO 320
440     CC
441          8 IF(BI.EQ.t) IAGE = AGE1ST
442            IF(BI.EQ.l) NAGE - AGE1ST
443            IF(BI.EQ.2) IAGE - AGE1ST
444            IF(BI.EQ.2) NAGE = AGE 1ST - 2
445  .   CC
446        320 IF(BI.EQ.3) IAGE = AGE1ST
447            IF(BI.EQ.3) NAGE - AGE1ST - 1
448     CC
449             EW(YR,P,B,T,IDR) = .75A(.625*CZ(NAGE,YR.P.B)
450           *          *  .375*CA(NAGE,YR-1,P,B)) + .25Vr(.875*CA(lAGE, YR,P,B)
451   •        *           + .125*CZ(IAGE,YR+1,P,B))

-------
                                                                              Page 10
 452     CC
 453       330  EWO(YR,P,B,T,IDR)  = .75*(.625*CWO(YR,P,B)  + .375*CWO(YR-1,P,B»
 454          *           + .25 *(.875*CWO(YR,P,B)  + .125*CWO(YR+1,P,B»
 455     CC                        .                        '
 455     CC
 457       350 CONTINUE
 458     CC
 459     CC
• 460           RETURN
 461           END

-------
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CC


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CC
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CC

CC

SUBROUTINE MUSCH(STD, IY, IDR)

THIS SECTION COMBINES EMISSION STANDARD CATEGORIES AND
TECHNOLOGIES INTO MODEL YEAR EMISSION LEVELS.

COMMON/REG/EWOC (20 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 9) , EWC (20 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 9)
COMMON/TECH/EWO (20 , 2 , 5 , 6 , 9) , EW (20 , 2 , 5 , 6 , 9)
COMMON/FRC/FRAC
COMMON/OUT/RED (19,2,7,3,3), ZMLC (5,7,3), DETC (5,7,3)

REAL EWO;EW,OC(6) ,WC(6),FRAC(6,9)
INTEGER ICUTS,ITEST,IDR,B,IP,IT,IYR,IY,STD,D

DEFINITIONS:

EWOC : WITHOUT I/M EMISSION LEVELS
EWC : WITH I/M EMISSION LEVELS
RED : REDUCTION IN EMISSIONS DUE TO I/M

ITEST = 1 IDLE TEST
2 IDLE/2500
3 LOADED/ IDLE

ICUTS =1 0.52 ICO / 100 PPM IHC
2 1.22 ICO / 220 PPM IHC
3 3.02 ICO / 300 PPM IHC

...DECODE IDR INTO CUTPOINT AND TEST TYPES

ITEST = 1
ICUTS = IDR
IF(IDR.GT.3) ITEST=2
IF(IDR.GT.6) ITEST=3
IF(IDR.GT.3) ICUTS=IDR-3
IF (IDR. GT. 6) ICUTS=IDR-6

...D IS USED FOR RETRIEVING TECHNOLOGY FRACTIONS (FRAC)

D - STD +2
IF (STD.EQ.1.AND.IY.EQ. 1) D-1
IF (STD.EQ.1.AND.IY.EQ.2) D=2
IF (STD.EQ.2.AND.IY.EQ. 1) D=3
IF. (STD.EQ.2.AND.IY.EQ.2) D=4


. . . LOOP BY BAG

DO 200 B=1,4

...COMBINE TECHNOLOGIES FOR EACH POLLUTANT AND YEAR

DO 130 IYR=1, 19
DO 130 IP=1,2

DO 120 IT- 1,6

OC(IT)- FRAC(IT,D)/100.0 * EWO(lYR, IP, B, IT, IDF
Page 11

-------
                                                                              Page  12
519                  WC(IT)= FRAC(IT.D)/100.0  *  EW(lYR,IP,B,IT,IDR)
520     CC
521       120       CONTINUE
522     CC
                                                              f
523              EWOC(IYR,IP,IY,B,IDR)  -  OC(l)+OC(2)+OC(3)+OC(4)+OC(5)+OC(6)
524              EWC(IYR,IP,IY,B,IDR)   =  WC(l)+WC(2)+WC(3)+WC(4)+WC(5)+WC(6)
525     CC
526     '  130  CONTINUE
527     CC
528     CC...COMBINE 3.4 AND 7.0 SCENARIOS FOR 81  &  82  MODEL  YEAR
529     CC
530           IF(D.GE.S)           GO TO  160
531           IF(D.EQ.2.0R.D.EQ.4) GO TO  140
532              •                  GO TO  200
533     CC
534       140 DO 150 IP=1,2
535           DO 150 IYR-1,19
536            EWOC(IYR,IP,IY,B,IDR)=EWOC(IYR,IP,IY,B,IDR)+EWOC(IYR,IP,1,B,IDR)
537            EWC(IYR,IP,IY,B,IDR)=EWC(IYR,IP,IY,B,IDR)+EWC(IYR,IP,1,B,IDR)
538       150 CONTINUE
539     CC
540     CC	CALCULATE NON-I/M REGRESSION
541     CC
542       160 CALL REGR(lY,IDR,B,STD)
543     CC
544     CC	CALCULATE I/M REDUCTION
545     CC
546           IF(B.NE.l) GO TO 200
547           DO 170 IP=1,2
548.          DO 170 IYR=1,19
549           RED(IYR,IP,STD,ICUTS,ITEST) =  (  EWOC(lYR,IP,IY,1,IDR)
550          *                            -    EWC(IYR,IP,IY,1.IDR)  )
551          *                 -I    EWOC(IYR,IP,IY, 1 ,.IDR)
552       170 CONTINUE
553     CC
554       200 CONTINUE
555     CC
556           RETURN
557   .        END

-------
Page 13
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CC
cc...
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cc




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cc
60
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. cc


cc


cc
V^^m« • • •
cc


cc

cc
cc...
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cc
SUBROUTINE REGR(IY, IDR.B.STD)

.THIS SUBROUTINE CALCULATES WEIGHTED REGRESSION EQUATION
FOR THE EMISSION FACTOR LINES

COMMON/REG/EWOC (20 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 9) , EWC (20 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 9)
COMMON/BAG/ZML2 (5,7,3), DET2 (5,7,3)
COMMON /ODOM /RATE , MILE , SRATE , MDIF
COMMON /WRG/WGT
COMMON/MACC/JMILE

REAL JMILE(19) ,WGT(20)
REAL SUMX, SUMY, SUM 1,SUM2,XBAR, YEAR
REAL MILE(20) ,RATE(9,2) ,SRATE(2,2) ,MDIF(20)
REAL ZML1,DET1

INTEGER B,IDR,IY,T,STD

IF(IDR.GT. 1) GO TO 999

DO 100 IP-1,2

SUMX =0.0
SUMY =0.0
SUMXY = 0.0
SUMXX = 0.0

DO 60 IYR=1,19

EM = EWOC(IYR,IP,IY,B,.IDR)

SUMX = SUMX + ( WGT(IYR) * JMILE(lYR) )
SUMY = SUMY + (• WGT(IYR) * EM )
SUMXY = SUMXY + ( WGT(IYR) * JMILE(lYR) * EK )
SUMXX = SUMXX + ( WGT(IYR) * (JMILE(lYR) **2) )

CONTINUE


SUM1 = SUMXY - SUMX * SUMY
SUM2 = SUMXX - SUMX**2

DET1 = SUM1 / SUK2
ZML1 = SUMY - DET1 * SUMX

.ORDINARY REGRESSION

ZML2(B,STD,IP) - ZML1
DET2(B,STD,IP) = DET1

IF(ZML2(B,STD,IP) .GE.0.0) GOTO 100

.REGRESSION FIXED THRU ZERO

ZML2(B,STD,IP) = 0.0 .
DET2(B,STD,IP) = SUMXY / SUMXX


-------
                                                                            Page  14
615       100 CONTINUE
616     CC
617       999 RETURN
618           END                                         '

-------
                                                                               Page 15
 619            SUBROUTINE BAGF(STD)
 620      CC
 621      CC   THIS SUBROUTINE CALCULATES BAG FRACTIONS
 622      CC
 623            COMMON/BAG/ZML2(5,7,3),DET2(5,7,3)
 624           'COMMON/OUT/RED(19,2,7,3,3),ZMLC(5,7,3),DETC(5,7,3)
 625      CC
 626            INTEGER STD
-627            REAL BAGF(3)/0.206, 0.521, 0.273/
 628            REAL ZMLF(2,4),DETF(2,4)
 629      CC
 630            DO 50 IP=1,2
 631      CC
 632            ZHLF(IP,1) - 0.0
 633            DETF(IP,1) " 0.0
 634      CC
 635            DO 50 IBAG=2,4
 636      CC
 637            ZKLF(IP,IBAG) = ZML2(IBAG.STD,IP)
 638            DETF(IP,IBAG) = DET2(IBAG.STD,IP)

 639      CC
 640            ZMLF(IP,1) - ZMLF(IP,1) + ZML2(IBAG,STD,IP)  * BAGF(lBAG-l)
 641            DETF(IP,1) = DETF(IP,1) + DET2(IBAG.STD,IP)  * BAGF(lBAG-l)
 642      CC
 643         50 CONTINUE
 644      CC
 645      CC
 646            DO 60 IP-1,2
 647            DO 60 IBAG=1,4
 648.    CC                                                   .        -
 649            ZMLC(IBAG.STD,IP) = ZKLF(IP,IBAG)  / ZMLF(IP,l)
 650            DETC(IBAG,STD,IP) = DETF (IP, IBAG).  / ZMLF (!?, 1)
 651      CC
 652         60 CONTINUE
 653      CC
 654            RETURN
 655            END

-------
Page 16
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SUBROUTINE NOXEF
CC
CC.
CC
CC
CC
CC
CC
CC
CC
CC
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CC
CC
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CC
CC
CC
CC
CC
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..THIS ROUTINE CALCULATES NOX VALUES


•MYG = 1
HYG - 2
MYG = 3
MYG = 4
MYG = 5
MYG - 6
MYG = 7
MYG - 8
MYG - 9

STD - 1
STD = 2
STD = 3

BAG = 1
BAG = 2
BAG = 3
BAG = 4
BAG = 5

TECH = 1
TECH = 2
TECH = 3
TECH = 4
TECH = 5
TECH = 6



1981 MYR (7.0 CO STD)
1981 MYR (3.4 CO STD)
1982 MYR (7.0 CO STD)
1982 MYR (3.4 CO STD)
1983 MYR
1984 MYR
1985-1986 MYRS
1987-1989 MYRS
1990 & LATER MYRS

1981+ MYR / 3.4 CO STANDARD
1981 MYR / 7.0 CO STANDARD
1982 MYR / 7.0 CO STANDARD

COMPOSITE FTP
COLD START BAG 1
TRANSIENT BAG 2
HOT START BAG 3
BAGGED IDLE

OXIDATION/3-WAY CATALYST, CLOSED-LOOP, CARBURATED.
3-WAY CATALYST, CLOSED-LOOP, CARBURATED.
OXIDATION/3-WAY CATALYST, CLOSED- LOOP, FUEL INJECTED
3-WAY CATALYST, CLOSED-LOOP, FUEL INJECTED.
3-WAY CATALYST, OPEN-LOOP, ALL
OXIDATION. CATALYST, ALL

COKKON/BAG/ZML2 (5,7,3), DET2 (5,7,3)
COMMON/FRC/FRAC .
CC


INTEGER STD, AGE, BAG, TECH, MYG, MYR
REAL MDIF (20) , FRAC (6 , 9)
REAL ZKL1 (5, 12),DET1 (5,12)
LOGICAL*4 LAB2 (5) / ' FTP ' ,




CC
CC.
CC
*
*
*
*

' BAG 1 ' ,
1 BAG2 ' ,
'BAG3' ,
'BAGI'/

...NOX REGRESSION ZERO-MILE LEVELS : ZML (BAG, TECH, STD)


REAL ZML(5,6,3) /
CC
CC
CC


1981+ 3.4 CO STANDARD


* 0.5328, 1.0096, 0.3870, 0.5170, 0.0,
* 0.5328, 1.0096, 0.3870, 0.5170, 0.0,
* 0.5328, 1.0096, 0.3870, 0.5170, 0.0,
* 0.5328, 1.0096, 0.3870, 0.5170, 0.0,
* 0.5626, 0.8423, 0.4506, 0.5628, 0.0,
* 0.7592, 1.0717, 0.5935, 0.8380, 0.0,
CC



-------
Page 17
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1981 7.0 CO STANDARD

* 0.6942, 1.0788, 0.5310, 0.7127, 0.0,
* 0.5433, 1.1605, 0,3938, 0.3597, 0.0,
* 0.6942, 1.0788, 0.5310, 0.7127, 0.0,
* 0.5433, 1.1605, 0.3938, 0.3597, 0.0,
* 0.4101, 0.7819, 0.2722, 0.3909, 0.0,
* 0.6735, 1.0702, 0.4874, 0.7283, 0.0,

1982 7.0 CO STANDARD

* 0.6717, 1.0926, 0.5108, 0.6573, 0.0,
* 0.5510, 1.0958, 0.3864, 0.4203, 0.0,
* 0.6717, 1.0926, 0.5108, 0.6573, 0.0,
* 0.5510, 1.0958, 0.3864, 0.4203, 0.0,
* 0.6933, 0.8957, 0.6504, 0.6231, 0.0,
* 0.6658, 1.0896, 0.4115, 0.8221, O.O/

...NOX REGRESSION DETERIORATION RATES : DET (BAG, TECH)

REAL DET(5,6) / 0.09534, 0.09324, 0.08205, 0.12259, 0.0,
* 0.09534, 0.09324, 0.08205, 0.12259, 0.0,
* 0.09534, 0.09324, 0.08205, 0.12259, 0.0,
* 0.09534, 0.09324, 0.08205, 0.12259, 0.0,
* 0.07692, 0.06917, 0.07539, 0.08572, 0.0,
* 0.01821, 0.00121, 0.02323, 0.02156, O.O/

...WEIGHT LINEAR REGRESSIONS

DO 50 BAG- 1 , 4
DO 40 MYG=1,9

ZKL1 (BAG.KYG) = 0.0
DET1 (BAG, MYG) = O-.O

STD = 1
IF(KYG.EQ.2) STD=2
IF(KYG.EQ.4) STD=3

DO 40 TECH=1,6

ZHL 1 (BAG , KYG) = ZML 1 (BAG , MYG) +ZML (BAG , TECH , STD) *FRAC (TECH , MYG) / 1 00 .
DET 1 (BAG , MYG) = DET 1 (BAG , KYG) +DET (BAG , TECH) *FRAC (TECH , MYG) / 1 00 .

40 CONTINUE

ZKL1(BAG,10) = ZML1(BAG,1) + ZML1(BAG,2)
DET1(BAG,10) = DET1(BAG,1) + DET1(BAG,2)
ZML1(BAG,11) = ZML1(BAG,3) + ZML 1 (BAG, 4)
DET1(BAG,11) - DET1(BAG,3) + DET1(BAG,4)

50 CONTINUE

DO 60 BAG-1,4

ZKL2(BAG,1,3) - ZML1(BAG,10)
ZML2(BAG,2,3) - ZML1(BAG,11)

-------
770
771
772
773
774
775
776
777
778
779
780
781
782
783
784
785
786
787
788
789
790
CC
CC

CC

CC
C
60
ZXL2(BAG,3,3)
ZKL2(BAG,4,3)
ZKL2(BAG,5,3)
ZXL2(BAG,6,3)
ZKL2(BAG,7,3)
DET2(BAG,1,3)
DET2(BAG,2,3)
DET2(BAG,3,3)
DET2(BAG,4,3)
DET2(BAG,5,3)
DET2(BAG;6,3)
DET2(BAG,7,3)
CONTINUE
CALL NOXBF
RETURN
END
- ZML1(BAG,5)
= ZML1 (BAG, 6)
= ZML1 (BAG, 7)
= ZML1 (BAG, 8)
= ZML1 (BAG, 9)
= DET1 (BAG, 10)
= DET1 (BAG, 11)
- DET1 (BAG, 5)
= DET1 (BAG, 6)
- DET1 (BAG, 7)
= DET1 (BAG, 8)
- DET1 (BAG, 9)




                                                                              Page 18

-------
                                                                              Page 19
791           SUBROUTINE NOXBF
792     CC
793     CC   THIS SUBROUTINE CALCULATES BAG  FRACTIONS
794     CC
795           COKMON/BAG/ZML2(5,7,3),DET2(5,7,3)
796           COMMON/OUT/RED(19,2,7,3,3),ZMLC(5,7,3),DETC(5,7,3)
797     CC
798           INTEGER STD
799           REAL BAGF(3)/O.206, 0.521,  0.273/
800           REAL ZMLF(4),DETF(4)
801     CC
802           DO 90 STD=1,7
803     CC
804           ZMLF(1) = 0.0
805           DETF(1) =0.0
806     CC
807           DO 50 IBAG=2,4
808     CC
809           ZMLF(IBAG) = ZML2(IBAG,STD,3)
810           DETF(IBAG) = DET2(iBAG,sTD,3)
811     CC
812           ZMLF(l) = ZMLF(1) + ZKL2(IBAG.STD,3)  * BAGF(lBAG-l)

813           DETFd) = DETF(l) + DET2 (IBAG.STD, 3)  * BAGF(lBAG-l)
814     CC
815        50 CONTINUE
816     CC
817     CC
818           DO 60 IBAG-1,4
819     CC
820           ZMLC(IBAG.STD,3)  = ZMLF(IBAG)  / ZMLF(l)
821           DETC(IBAG.STD,3)  = DETF(lBAG)  / ZMLF(l)
822     CC
823        50 CONTINUE
824     CC
625        90 CONTINUE
826     CC
827      '     RETURN
828           END

-------
                                                                             Page 20
829           SUBROUTINE OUTPUT
830     CC
831           COMMON/OUT/RED(19,2,7,3,3),ZMLC(5,7,3),DETC(5,7,3)
832           COMMON/BAG/ZML2(5,7,3),DET2(5,7,3)
833     CC
834       '    INTEGER ITEST.ICUTS.STD,IP,IBY,IBAG
835           LOGICAL*4 LAB1(3)/'  HC',1  CO1,' NOX'/
836           LOGICAL*4 LAB2(5)/'FTP ',
837          *                   'BAG11,
838          *                   'BAG21,
839          *                   'BAG31,
840          *        '           'BAGI'/
841           LOGICAL*4 LAB3(7)/'81   ',
842          *                   '82   ',
843          *   •                '83   ',
844          *                   ' 84   ' ,
845          *                   '8586',
846          *  .                 '8789',
847          *                   '90+ '/
848     CC
849           N1 -  1
850           N3 =  3
851     CC
852     CC	WRITE OUT TABLE HEADINGS
853     CC
854           WRITE(7,100) N3
855           DO 10 ITEST=1,3
856           DO 10 ICUTS=1,3
857           DO 10 STD-M.7
858           DO 10 IP-1,2
859           WRITE(7,200)  (RED(IBY,IP.STD,ICUTS,ITSST),IBY=1,19)   -
860         10 CONTINUE
861     CC
862           WRITE(8,100) N1  •                                .
863           DO 20 IP=1,3
864           WRITE(8,500)
865           DO 20 STD=1,7
866           DO 20 IBAG=1,1
867           WRITE(8,300) LAB3(STD),LAB2(IBAG),LAB1(IP) ,
868  .        *  ZML2(IBAG.STD,IP),DET2 (IBAG.STD,IP) ,
869          *  ZKL2(IBAG,STD,IP),DET2(IBAG.STD,IP)
870         20 CONTINUE

871     CC
872           WRITE(9,100) N1
873           DO 30 IP=1,3
874           WRITE(9,500)
875           DO 30 STD=1,7
876           WRITE(9,400) LAB3(STD),LAB1(IP),
877          *(ZMLC(IBAG,STD,IP),DETC(IBAG.STD,IP),IBAG=2,4),
878          *  ZMLC(1,STD,IP),DETC(1,STD,IP)
879         30 CONTINUE
880     CC
881       100 FORMAT(I1,7,'  **',/,
882          *' **  1981 &  LATER LOW-ALTITUDE  ',
883      •*/,'**')
884       200 FORMAT(19F4.3)
885       300 FORMAT('  19',A4,' EF EQUATION :  ',2A4,'=I,

-------
                                                                              Page 21
886          *F6.2,' +  ',F6.2,1 * MILES/100001.3X.2F12.5)
887       400 FORMAT('  19'.2A4.8F7.3)
888       500 FORMAT('-')
889     CC
890           RETURN
891           END

-------
                                                                 Page  22
892
893
894
895
896
897
898
899
900
901
902
903
904
905
906
907
908
909
910
911
912
913
914
915
916
917
918
919
920
921
922
923
924
S25
926
927
928
929
930
931
932
933
934
935
936
937
938
939
940
941
942
943
944
945
946
947
948

CC
CC
CC.
CC






CC
CC.
CC

CC
CC
CC


CC


CC


CC


CC


CC


CC

CC
CC
CC


CC


CC


CC


CC


CC


   BLOCK DATA
.BLOCK DATA WITH TECH IV INPUT (UPDATED 4/14/84)
                                                 f
 ' COMMON/INPUT/SHO,SSO,GH,GS,ESO,DS,ENOO,DN,EHO,DH
  COKKON/FRC/FRAC
  COMKON/ODOM/RATE,MILE,SRATE,MDIF
  CCMMON/MACC/JMILE
  COMMON/IMS/INSP,FINSP,STD,IDR,IY,T,B
  COMKON/WRG/WGT

.MOBILES

  REAL SSO(2,5,6)  /

 SIZE OF THE SUPERS AT ZERO (INTERCEPT)

 * 0.0000,0.0000,   0.0000,0.0000,  0.0000,0.0000,
 * 0.0000,0.0000,   0.0000,0.0000,

 * 0.0000,0.0000,   0.0000,0.0000,  0.0000,0.0000,
 * 0.0000,0.0000,   0.0000,0.0000,

 * 0.0000,0.0000,   0.0000,0.0000,  0.0000,0.0000,
 * 0.0000,0.0000,   0.0000,0.0000,

 * 0.0000,0.0000,   0.0000,0.0000,  0.0000,0.0000,
 * 0.0000,0.0000,   0.0000,0.0000,

 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,   0.000 ,0.000,  0.000 ,0.000,
 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,   0.000 ,0.000,

 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,   .0.000 ,0.000,  0.000 ,0.000,
 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,   0.000 ,0.000 /

  REAL GS(2,5,6) /
 GROWTH OF NUMBER (SIZE)  OF SUPERS (PER 10K MILES)

 * .002563,.002563,   .002563,.002563,  .002563,.002563,
 * .002563,.002563,   .002563,.002563,

 * .002563,.002563,   .002563,.002563,  .002563,.002563,
 * .002563,.002563,   .002563,.002563,

 * .001281,.001281,   .001281,.001281,  .001281,.001281,
 * .001281,.001281,   .001281,.001281,

 * .001281,.001281,   .001281,.001281,  .001281,.001281,
 * .001281,.001281,   .001281,.001281,

 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,  0.000 ,0.000,
 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,

 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,  0.000 ,0.000,
 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000 /

-------
                                                                             Page 23
949     CC
950            REAL SHO(2,5,6)  /
951     CC
952     CC    SIZE OF THE HIGHS AT ZERO (INTERCEPT)
953     CC
954           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,   0.000  ,0.000,
955           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,
956     CC
-957           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,   0.000  ,0.000,
958           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,
959     CC
960           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,   0.000  ,0.000,
961           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,
962     CC
963           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,   0.000  ,0.000,
964           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,
965     CC
966           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,   0.000  ,0.000,
967           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,
968     CC
969           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,   0.000  ,0.000,
970           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000 /
971     CC
972            REAL GH(2,5,6)  /
973     CC
974     CC    GROWTH OF NUMBER (SIZE) OF HIGHS (PER 10K MILES)
975     CC
976           * 0.0250,0.0250,   0.0250,0.0250, 0.0250,0.0250,
977           * 0.0250,0.0250,   0.0250,0.0250,
978     CC
979.          * 0.0250,0.0250,  -0.0250,0.0250, 0.0250,0.0250,
980           * 0.0250,0.0250,   0.0250,0.0250,
931     CC
982           * 0.0193,0.0193,  -0.0193,0.0193, 0.0193,0.0193,
983           * 0.0193,0.0193,   0.0193,0.0193,
984     CC
985           * 0.0193,0.0193,   0.0193,0.0193, 0.0193,0.0193,
986           * 0.0193,0.0193,   0.0193,0.0193,

987   .  CC
988           * 0.0401,0.0401,   0.0401,0.0401, 0.0401,0.0401,
989           * 0.0401,0.0401,   0.0401,0.0401,
990     CC
991           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,   0.000 ,0.000,   0.000  ,0.000,
992           * 0.000 ,0.000 ,   0.000 ,0.000 /
993     CC
994            REAL ESO(2,5,6)/
995     CC
996     CC   EMISSIONS OF THE SUPERS
997.    CC
998           * 14.132,  193.23,  30.937, 181.02,   10.867, 210.72,
999           *  7.508,  169.22,   1.100,  16.007,
1000     CC
1001           * 14.132,  193.23,  30.937, 181.02,   10.867, 210.72,
1002           *  7.508,  169.22,   1.100,  16.007,
1003     CC
1004           * 10.560,  191.72,   8.090, 170.45,   12.645, 215.45,
1005           *  8.460,  162.55,   0.000, 000.00,

-------
                                                                 Page 24
1005
1007
1008
1009
1010
1011
1012
1013
-1014
1015
1016
1017
1018
1019
1020
1021
1022
1023
1024
1025
1026
1027
1028
1029
1030
1031
1032
1033
1034
1035
1036
1037
1038
1039
1040
1041
1042
1043
1044
1045
1046
1047
1048
1049
1050
1051
1052
1053
1054
1055
1056
1057
1058
1059
1060
1061
1062
CC


CC


CC


CC

CC
CC
CC


CC


CC


CC


CC


CC


CC

CC
CC
CC


CC


CC


CC


CC


CC


CC

CC
CC
 * 10.560, 191.72,   8.090, 170.45,  12.645, 215.45,
 *  8.460, 162.55,   0.000, 000.00,

 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,  0.000 ,0.000,
 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,

 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000,  0.000 ,0.000,
 * 0.000 ,0.000 ,  0.000 ,0.000 /

  REAL DS(2,5,6) /

DETERIORATION OF SUPERS (EMISSIONS)

 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000, 0.000,  0.000, 0.000 /

  REAL EHO(2,5,6)/

FOLLOWING IS THE EMISSIONS OF THE HIGHS AT ZERO  (INTERCEPT)

 * 2.2997, 39.137,   4.6408, 61.181,   1.7954,  35.503,
 * 1.4857, 29.354,   0.0000,  0.000,
 * 2.2997, 39.137,   4.6408, 61.181,   1.7954, 35.503,
 * 1.4857, 29.354,   0.0000,  0.000,

 * 2.3556, 38.212,   4.2419, 53.030,   1.9737, 36.496,
 * 1.6574, 30.292,   0.0000,  0.000,

 * 2.3556, 38.212,   4.2419, 53.030,   1.9737, 36.496,
 * 1.6574, 30.292,   0.0000,  0.000,

 * 2.2511, 34.607,   3.6050, 50.422,   1.7850, 30.528,
 * 2.1094, 30.361,   0.0000,  0.000,

 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,   0.000,  0.000,
 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000 /

  REAL  DH(2,5,6)  /

FOLLOWING  IS  THE  DETERIORATION OF THE  EMISSIONS  FOR  HIGHS

-------
                                                                 Page 25
1063
1064
1065
1065
1067
1068
1069
1070
1071
1072
1073
1074
1075
1076
1077
1078
1079
1080
1081
1082
1083
1084
1085
1086
1087
1088
1089
1090
1091
1092
1093.
1094
1095
1095
1097
1098
1099
1100
1 101
1 102
1103
1104
1105
1105
1107
1108
1 109
1 1 10
1111.
1112
1113
1114
1115
1116
1 1 17
1118
1 1 19
CC'


CC


CC


CC


CC


CC


CC
CC
CC

CC
CC
CC






CC
CC
CC






CC
CC
CC






CC

CC
CC
CC
CC


 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,   0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,   0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,   0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,   0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,   0.000, 0.000,
 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,

 * 0.000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000,   0.000, 0.000,
 * 0..000,  0.000,   0.000, 0.000 /

FOLLOWING IS EMISSIONS OF THE NORMALS AT ZERO (INTERCEPT)

  REAL ENOO(2,5,6,3)/

THIS IS THE DATA FOR 3.4 GM/KI CO STANDARD VEHICLES
 *0.2260,1.948,0.
 *0.2260,1.948,0.
 *0.2260,1.948,0.
 *0.2260,1.948,0.
 *0.3229,2.823,0.
 *0.2768,2.507,0,
5271,5.550,0.1117,0.612,0.2127,1.748,0.0,0.0,
5271,5.550,0.1117,0.612,0.2127,1.748,0.0,0.0,
5271,5.550,0.1117,0.612,0.2127,1.748,0.0,0.0,
5271,5.550,0.1117,0.612,0.2127,1.748,0.0,0.0,
6930,7.665,0.1803,0.542,0.3136,3.199,0.0,0.0,
              195,1.001,0.2087,2.070,0.-0,0.0,
                 ,7663,6.857,0

THIS IS THE DATA FOR 1981 7.0 GM/MI CO STANDARD VEHICLES

 *0.3056,3.201,0.8780,10.927,0.1056,0.535,0.2521,2.405,0.0,0.0,
 *0.3048,4.277,0.7798,10.925,0.1370,2.133,0.2521,3.302,0.0,0.0,
 *0.3055,3.201,0.8780,10.927,0.1056,0.535,0.2521,2.405,0.0,0.0,
 *0.3048,4.277,0.7798,10.925,0.1370,2.133,0.2621,3.302,0.0,0.0,
 *0.3700,5.775,0.5573, 9.568,0.2705,3.535,0.4175,6.827,0.0,0.0,
 *0.2220,3.398,0.5366,11.870,0.1178,0.722,0.1786,2.048,0.0,0.0,


THIS IS THE DATA FOR 1982 7.0 GM/MI CO STANDARD VEHICLES

 *0.2513,2.994,0.7141,10.092,0.0951,0.475,0.1959,2.392,0.0,0.0,
 *0.2041,2.824,0.6145, 6.7 10,0.0771 ,.1.654,0. 1333,2.091 ,0.0,0.0,
 *0.2513,2.994,0.7141,10.092,0.0951,0.475,0.1959,2.392,0.0,0.0,
 *0.2041,2.824,0.6145, 6.710,0.0771,1.654,0.1333,2.091,0.0,0.0,
 *0.3435,4.395,0.5744,10.212,0.2319,1.821,0.3795,4.836,0.0,0.0,
 *0.1801,2.787,0.5011, 9.454,0.0967,1.125,0.1034,0.958,0.0,O.O/

  REAL DN(2,5,6) /

FOLLOWING IS THE DETERIORATION OF THE EMISSIONS OF THE NORMALS'
 * 0.04998, 0.6459,
 * 0.03067, 0.3988,
    0." 11907,  1.6554,
    0.00000,  0.0000,
                                       0.03304, 0.3777,

-------
Page 26
1120
1121
1122
1123
1124
1125
1126
1127
-1128
1129
1130
1131
1132
1133
1134
1135
1136
1 137
1138
1139
1140
1 141
1142
1143
1144
1145
1146
1 147
1148
1149
1150.
1151
1152
1 153
1 154
1155
1156
1157
1158
1 159 .
1 160
1161
1162
1 153
1164
1165
1 166
1 167
1168
1169
1170
1171
1172
1173
1174
1175
1176
CC


cc


CC


cc


cc


cc
cc.
cc










cc
cc
cc
cc


cc
cc
cc
cc




cc



cc

cc




cc




* 0.04998, 0.6459, 0.11907, 1.6554, 0.03304, 0.3777,
* 0.03067, 0.3988, 0.00000, 0.0000,

* 0.04998, 0.6459, 0.11907, 1.6554, 0.03304, 0:3111,
* 0.03067, '0.3988, 0.00000, 0.0000,

* 0.04998, 0.6459, 0.11907, 1.6554, 0.03304, 0.3777,
* 0.03067, 0.3988, 0.00000, 0.0000,

* 0.04507, 0.1713, 0.08728, 0.7530, 0.02780, 0.0000,
* 0.04670; 0.200.1, 0.00000, 0.0000,

* 0.02681, 0.4638, 0.09240, 1.4863, 0.0091 1 , 0.2053,
* 0.01129, 0.1824, 0.00000, O.OOOO/

...TECHNOLOGY FRACTIONS : FRAC (TECH.MYG)

REAL FRAC (6,9)/
* 23.1, 4.5, 1.0, 2.3, 7.6, 10.3,
* 15.1, 18.1, 1.9, 4.2, 7.5, 4.4,
'V 3.6, 3.8, 1.4, 5.6, 2.3, 10.1,
* 32.7, 12.7, 2.3, 9.0, 12.8, 3.7,
* 45.3, 2.1, 27.6, 0.0, 13.1, 11.9,
•* 43.4, 11.9, 40.0, 0.0, 4.7, 0.0,
* 23.5, 11.1, 61.0, 0.0, 4.4, 0.0,
* 11.2, 8.5, 79.5, 0.0, 0.8, 0.0,
* 4.0, 6.2, 88.8, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 /

EXCESS EMISSION IDENTIFICATION RATE FOR SUPERS
SRATE(P,CARB/FI) •

REAL SRATE (2,2)/ 0.560, 0.826,
* -1.000, 1.000/

EXCESS EMISSION IDENTIFICATION RATES FOR HIGHS
RATE(IDR.P)

REAL RATE (9, 2) /
* 0.515, 0.379, 0.224,
* 0.643, 0.504, 0.333,
* 0.743, 0.572, 0.397,

* 0.547, 0.450, 0.283,
* 0.732, 0.626, 0.424,
* 0.837, 0.712, 0.486/

LOGICAL FINS? (3)/. TRUE. , .FALSE. ..TRUE./

REAL WGT(20) / 0.037, 0.140, 0.125, 0.111, 0.097,
* 0.086, 0.075, 0.064, 0.056, 0.048,
* 0.040, 0.034, 0.028, 0.022, 0.016,
* 0.011, 0.007, 0.003, 0.000, O.OOO/

REAL MILE (20)/ 1.2818, 2.4920, 3.6347, 4.7136, 5.7323,
* 6.6942, 7.6024, 8.4599* 9.2695,10.0340,
* 10.7558,11.4373,12.0808, 12.6884, 13.2621,

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                                                                              Page 27
1177          *              13.8037/14.3151,14.7979, 15.2538,15.6843/
1178     CC
1179           REAL JMILE(19)/         0.9591,  2.1873,  3.3470,  4.4420,
1180          *                5.4758, 6.4520,  7.3738,  8.2440,  9.0657,
1181          *                9.8415,10.5741,11.2657,11.9188,12.5354,
1182          *         "     13.1176,13.6673,14.1863,14.6764,15.13907
1183     CC
1184            END

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