EPA-AA-IMS-81-6
     A Comparison  of MOBILE1 vs. MOBILE2
                     By
                 Phil  Lorang
                Tom Cackette
                 Jay Wallace
    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
     Office of Air,  Noise,  and  Radiation
Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution  Control
    Emission  Control Technology Division
         Ann  Arbor, Michigan  48105

-------
                           A COMPARISON OF MOBILEl
                                 VS.  MOBLILE2
I.    Pre-1981 models - without I/M


II.    1981 and later models - without I/M


III.   Pre-1981 models - with I/M


IV.    1981 and later models - with I/M

-------
I.    Major differences in the emission factors which  ar
-------
II.  How MOBILE2 differs from MOBILE1-

     MOBILE2 operates in a manner similar .to MOBILE1.  MOBILE2 was designed to
     maintain input/output sequences that as much as possible are like the
     previous model.  MOBILE2 has several new options, thus most of the
     differences between MOBILE2 and MOBILE1 are the result of. inclusion of
     additional options.

     A.   Diagnostic Messages - all input data are checked against allowable
          limits

          1.   Errors which terminate the program

               a.   Under all situations where the program terminates, MOBILE2
                    will write out an.appropriate message

               b.   Examples

                    1)    "Value of flag" out of -bounds for flag
                          "name of flag"

                    2)    "Region code" out  of bounds  for  region

          2.   Warnings indicate, MOBILE2 has automatically  changed an input
               parameter  to avoid, inaccurate output  results

               a.   They  do not terminate the program

               b.   Examples

                     1)    "Value of  Speed" Speed  reduced  to  55  mph,  Maximum

                    2)    Equation  "equation number"  zeroes  all idle
                          coefficient  (and  total)  for region="region #",
                          vehicle  type="vehicle  type  :'/",  and
                          pollutant="pollutant  #".

-------
    2.    Options  that  are  obsolete

          a.    Use  of  heavy-duty  power/cid  correction factor.   (However,
               the  MOBILEl information  data requirements are retained to
               maintain  input  compatibility with MOBILE.!.  'If  the flag
               for  this  option is set,  MOBILE2 will ignore all associated
               information).

          b.    Input  of  three  average speeds.   (MOBILEl required under
               one  option the  input of  an average speed for the. three
               different sequences in the FTP.  MOBILE2 no longer
               analyzes  bag  information for the speed correction factor).

     3.    Options that are unavailable  but could easily be reinstated.

          a.    Free format (list-directed) reads

          b.    Unformatted output        "•

C.   Internally MOBILE2 has  the following  diffeneces from MOBILEl

     1.    Maximum number of equations 'is 15 instead  of  10

     2.    Maximua calendar year  for calculated  emission factors  is  2020
          instead of  1995

     3.    More relevant  documentation  in the  program

     A.    Modular design - more  subprograms and block  data

     5.    Size of MOBILE2 about  the  same as MOBILEl

-------
III. KOBILE1 versus MOBILE2 emission factors (graphics)







     A.   LDGV's (Non-methane HC, CO and NOx plots)







          1.   FTP conditions (calendar years 1975 thru 2000)










          2.   Speed affects (5 to 55 mph calendar year 1987)






             i



          3.   Teaperature affects (0" to 100°F calendar year 1987)
     B.   All vehicles combined  (Non-methane KC, CO and NOx plots)







          1.   FTP conditions  (calendar years 1975 thru 2000)










          2.   Speed affects.  (5  to 55 niph calendar year 1987)










          3.   Temperature affects (0° to 100°T calendar year  1987)

-------
     2)    MOBILE2 basic  temperature  correction  factor  equations

     3)    MOBILE2 basic  speed  correction  factor equations

     A)    A set of  composite emission  results for  calendar
          years 1982 and 1987  (individual vehicle  types  and all
          vehicles  combined) versus  speed.  •

     5)    Another  set of composite emission results versus
          temperature.
b.   Tables
     1)   Emission results by vehicle type for several calendar
          years by various combinations of temperature, speed
          and percent of VMT in cold/hot starts.

     2)   Emission results by different vehicle types for
          several calendar years by various combinations of air
          conditioning, extra load and trailer towing usage
          patterns.

-------
               MOBILE! VS. MOBILE2: LDGV CO
100
 1975
1980
1985        1990
 CRLENDRR TERR
1995
2000

-------
                 MOBILE1 VS.  HOBILE2:  LDGV NON-MTH  HC
  10
   8
I
o
                                            Calendar Year 1987
                                            	MOBILE2
                                                MOBILE1
             10   \S   20   25   30   35   U 0   45   50   55   60
                            SPEED  fMI/HR)

-------
    MOBILE1 VS.  MOBILES:  LDGV NOX
                                   Calender Year 1987
                                   	MOBILE2
                                      MOBILE1
10   15   20   25   30   35   40
               SPEED  (HI/HR)
45   50  .55   60

-------
                MOBILE1 V5. MOBILE2:  LDGV  CO
100
 90
 80
 70
 60
 50
\
k \
 30
 20
  10
   0
       \
         \
       \
             \
                   \
                                          Calendar Year 1987

                                         	MOBILE2
                                             MOBILE1
         10    20     30     40    50    60    70    80    90   100
                 RMBIENT  TEMPERRTURE  (DEC FflHR)

-------
                 MOBILE1 VS. MOBILES:  RLL NON-KTH HC
  30
  25 .
  20
o
z: 1 0
   0
  1975
                                         MOBILE1

                                         MOBILE2
1980
1985       1990
 CRLENDRR  TERR
1995
2000

-------
                 Cosparison of MOBILE1 and MOBILE2 (Fleetwide)
                       (Start I/M 1/1/83, Evaluate 1/1/880
                                 Base Credit (%)        With Training (%)
       Stringency (%)               Ml.    *M2    '          Ml    *M2

            10       •               21     31              37     32
            20             '         24     35 '             44     35
EC          30     '                 28     37              48     38
            40                      30     39              51     4-0
            50                .      31     39              55     40.

            10   '             '18     28              41     30
            20                      25     33              49     36
CO          30                      29     36              54     40 .
        -    40                   .   33     38          ..57     42'
            50          -     •       36     40   '           58     42
* Uses sisple idle test/50% identification rate for 1981+ vehicles.

-------
           HOBILE2
   • 15o Mechanic Training
      Start I/M 1/1/83
       Evaluate 1/1/88 •
1987 I/M Benefits.(Fleetvide)
1981 Identification Rate
Pre-1981
Stringency


0
10
20
30
40 '
50

0
(no test)

EC CO
o • o
18 . 14
22 20
25 23
27 25
• 27 26
1
50%
(sisple idle)

HC _CO
'12 14
31 28 •
35 33
37 36 .
39 38
39 40
987 I/M Benefits
702
(2 speed idle)
(2 mode loaded)
EC CO
15 19 '
33 34
37 39
40 42
41 44
41 ' 46
(Sub-Fleet Basis)
Pre-1981 ';.--•

Stringency
10
20
20
40
50 .'





EC
32
39
43
46
46





CO
27
37
43
47
50
Contribution to

Pre-1'981
1981 +
Identification
Rate
50%
70%
90%


Non-I/M Inventory
HC CO
58%- 53%
42% ' 47%
90%
(3 stage idle)

EC ' CO
17 25
. . 36 40
40 45
42 48
44 50
44 ' 52

•1981+ • .

HC CO
29 29
35 41
41 53





'

-------
           MOBILE2
Incremental Benefits Due to MT


Pre-1981
Stringency

10
20
30
40
50


Stringency
10
20
' 30
40
50



Start I/M 1/1/83
Evaluate 1/1/88
1987 I/M Benefits (Fleetvide)
1981+ Identification Rate
0 ' 50% 70%
(no test) (sircple idle) (2 speed idle)
(2 aode loaded)
HC _CO HC CO EC GO
13 1-2 1 2
12 0 3 ' 1 3
13-1 4 '1 4
1 '3 ' 1 4 2 41
121 2 2 2
1987 I/M Benefits (Sub-Fleet Basis)
Pre-1981
Identification
HC CO P^te
•"•'O 4 - . 50%
05 70%
26 90%
2 6
24. • .
Contribution to Non-I/M Inventory
EC _CO
Pre-1981 - 58% 53%
1981+ ' 42% . 47%



90%
(3 stage idle)
EC _CO
0 2
0 2
1 3
1 3
I 2
1981 +

EC CO
0 0
0 0







-------
                hOBILEl  VS.  MOB1LE2: RLL  NOX
 30
  25
  20

x
o
  10
                                         MOBILE1


                                         MOBILE2
   0

  1975
1980
1985       1990

 CRLENDRR
1995
2000

-------
                  MOBILE1  VS.  MOBILE2:  RLL NON-HTH HC
  10
   9 .
   8
21
O


-o  -5
01
                \
                  \
Calender Year 1987
	MOBILE2
     MOBILE1
    0     5    10    15    20    25   30   35   40   4-5. 50.  55    60
                            SPEED  (MI/HR)

-------
                 MOBILE1  VS.  MOBILES: RLL  NOX
                                                Calendar Year 1987

                                               	MOBILE2
                                                   MOBILE 1-
X
o
            10    15   20    25    30   35   li 0
                           SPEED  (Ml/HP,)
45   50
55
SO

-------
                 HOBILE1  VS.  MOBILES:  RLL  CO
100
                                             Calendar Year 1987
 90 .
 80 .
 70
 60
 50
 140
 30
 20
 10
  0
•MOBILE2
MOBILEl
   0    5   10   15   20   25   30   35    40    45  '  50   55..  60
                           SPEED  (MI/HR)

-------
                 MOBILE1  VS.  MOBILES:  RLL  NON-HTH  HC
  10
   8
u  5 _
0
                                              Calendar Year 1987

                                              	M03ILE2
                                                 MOBILE1
                                                          I
     0     10    20    30    UO    50    60    70     80    90   100
                  RHBIENT TEHPERRTURE  (DEC  FRHR)

-------
                  MOBILE1 VS.  MOBILES: RLL  CO
  100
   90 .
   80
   70
   60
   50
o
0  U-0
   30
      \
       \
         \
   20 .
   10 .
    0
              \
 Calendar Year 1987

	MOBILE2
    >50BILE1
      0     10     20    30    40    50    60    "70    80   - 90   100
                   RMB IE NT  TEMPEBRTURE  (DEC FRHR)

-------
                MOBILE1 .VS.  MOBILES:  RLl NOX
                                              Calendar Year 1987

                                            	MOBILE2
                                                 MOBILE1
X
o
         10    20    30    UO    50    60    70    80
                 RMBIENT  TEMPERRTURE  (DEC FRHR)
SO
100

-------
                MOBILE1  VS. HOBILE2:  RLL CO
100
 90
                                              Calendar Year 1987
                            	MOBILE2
                              MOBILE1
      0
   30    MO    50    60
RMBIEHT  TEMPERRTURE  iDEG FfiHR)
                                              70    80  ,30   100

-------
  hOBILE-1  VS. MOBILES:  RLL  NOX
                                   Calendar \'ear 1987

                                 	MOBILE2
                                      MOBILE1
                                                                   1	^,_ ,. - ~ HT"']!!"''- -
20     30    140     50    60     70    80
   RMBIENT TEMPERRTURE  (DEC  FRHR)
90   100

-------
           AOi-t
  REGISTRATION MIX AND ANNUAL
    MILEAGE ACCUMULATION FOR
     LOW ALTITUDE 49-STATE
3HT DUTY GASOLINE-POWERED VEHICLES

 MODEL     .              ANNUAL
 YEAR    REGISTRATION    MILES
INDEX**      MI-X*      TRAVELED*
   1        0.072       14400.
   2        0.101       13900.
   3    •    0.092       13400.
   4        0.071       12800. '
   5        0.092       12300.
   6        0.103       11800.
   7        0;089       11200.
   8        0.071       10700.
   9        0.066       10200.
  10        0.059        9600.
  11        0.048        9100.
 ' 12        0.035  '  -    8600.
  13        0.030        8000.
  14        0.023        7500.
  15        0.015        7000.
  16        0.010        6400.
  17        0.005        5900.
  18    •    0.003        5400.
  19        0.002        4900.
  20+  •     0.015        4300.
DEFAULT  INFORMATION  THAT MAY  BE  ALTERED"BY .THB'MOSILE2'
USER WITH  INFORMATION  ABOUT THE  LOCAL  AREA.


--*THE INDICES  REFER'TO  THE  MOST RECENT  MODEL  YEAR
  VEHICLES  IN  ANY  GIVEN CALENDAR  YEAR.   INDEX 1  REFERENCE:
  THE NEWEST MODEL  YEAR VEHICLES  AND  INDEX  20+  REFERENCES
  THE OLDEST MODEL  YEAR VEHICLES.
                   DATE:  NOVEMBER  26,  1980

-------
DATE: NOVEMBER 26, 1980
            TADLE 1.1.0
      FLEET SALES FRACTION* FOR
        LOW ALTITUDE 49-STATE
LIGHT DUTY GASOLINE-POWERED VEHICLES

       MODEL
       YEARS           FRACTION
      PRE-1975          1.000
       1975             0.990
       1976             0.997
       1977             0.995
       1970             0.991
       1979             0.972
       1900             0.966
       1901             0.953
       1902             0.925
       1903             0.911
       1904             0.905
       1905             0.806
       1906             0.062
       1907             0.035
       1900             0.824
       .1909             0.013
       1990             0.803
       1991+            0.000

  THE ESTIMATED FRACTION OF THE LIGHT-DUTY
  VEHICLE FLEET WHICH IS GASOLINE-POWERED.
                    DATE:  NOVEMBER 26,  1900

-------
               TABLE 1.1.9
          CUMULATIVE MILEAGE FOR
          LOW ALTITUDE 48-STATE
   LIGHT  DUTY GASOLINE-POWERED VEHICLES

   MODEL  YEAR         JANUARY 1 FLEET
     INDEX*          CUMULATIVE MILEAGE
        1                    1800.
        2                   10784.
        3                   24809.
        4                   38331.
        5                   51284.
        B                   63709.
        7                   75631.
        8       .            86984.
        9       ^            97809.
       10                  108131.
       11                  117884.
       12                  127109.
       13                ' •135631.
       14                  143964.
       15                  151609.
       16                  1587 St.
       17         •         165284.
       18           -      171309.
       19                  176833.
       20+                181855.
*THE INDICES REFER TO THE MOST RECENT I/.ODEL YEAR
 VEHICLES IN ANY GIVEN1 CALENDAR YEAR.  INDE-X  1 REFERENCES
 THE NEWEST MODEL YEAR VEHICLES AND  INDEX 20+ REFERENCES
 THE OLDEST MODEL YEAR VEHICLES.
                   DATE: NOVEMBER 26,  1980

-------
                                 TABLL  1.1.10
                EXAMPLE TRAVEL  WEIGHTING  FACTOR  CALCULATION FOR
                             LOW  ALTITUDE  ^9-STATE
                      LIGHT  DUTY  GASOLINE-POWERED VEHICLES
                                JANUARY I,  1985
MODEL (A) (B) '
YEAR FLEET SALES
INDEX* REGISTRATION' FRACTION1
1
2
3
k
5
6
7
8
9
10
n
12
13
H
• 15
16
17
18
13
20+

0.021*
0. 101
0.032
0.071
0.092
0.103
0.089
0.071
0.066
0.059
0.01*8
0.035
0.030
0.023
o . o • 5
0.010
0.005
0.003
0.002
0.015

0.886
0.905
0.911
0.325
0-953
0.366
o.S-72
0.991
0.395
0.9S7
0.938
1 .000
1 .000
1 .000
1 .000
. 1 .000
1 .000
1 .000
1 .000
1 .000
S'JMl:
(C=A*B/SUM1)
VEHICLE TYPE ,
(A*B) REGISTRATION
0.021
0.091
0.081*
0.065
0.087
0.099
0.086
.0.0/1
0.066
0.059
0.0^8
0.035'
0.030
0.023
0.015
C.010
0.005
0.003
0.002
0.015
0.515
0.023
0 . 1 00
0.092
• 0.072
0.095
0.108
0.03;
0.077
0.072
O.Ooi*
0.052
0.038
0.033
0.025
0.016
0.01 1.
0.006
0.003
0;002
0.016

(D)
*,NNUAL MILEAGE
ACCUMULATION
ui40o.
U275.
13775.
13250.
12675-
12175.
11650. •
11075.
10575.
10050.
3^75-
8375.
8^50.
7S75-
7375-
6850.
6275.
5775-
5275-
' V750.
- SUM2:
(C*D/S'JM2)
TRAVEL
(CAD) FRACTIONS
335.3
1^25.3
1263-7
•9^8.8
1209.8
1313. ^
1053.5
8514.14
758.2
6^7-5
14914.2
3^*2.5
277-2
156.0 •
121 .0
7A.1
37-7
15-8
3-3
75-8
11507-9
0.029
0.121*
0.110
0.082
0.105
0.115
0.036
0.071*
0.066
0.056
0.01*3
0.030
0.021*
• 0.017
0.011
0.006
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.007

ftTH'E INDICES.REFER TO THE MOST RECENT MODEL YEAR
VEHICLES  IK ANY GIVEN1 CALENDAR YEAR.  IN'DEX 1 REFERENCES
THE NEWEST. MODEL YEAR VEHICLES AND  INDEX 20+ REFERENCES
THE OLDEST MODEL YEAR VEHICLES.
WHERE
  A
  B
  D
      =• REGISTRATION MIX FROM TABLE  1.1.7, NEWEST MODEL YEAR  ADJUSTED TO JAN 1
      = FLEET SALES FRACTION FROM TABLE  1.1.8
      = SALES WEIGHTED ANNUAL MILEAGE ACCUMULATION1  RATE FROM  TABLE  1.1-7,
        ADJUSTED TO JANUARY 1 .
D (1)   = ANNUAL Ml LES (1)
D(MYI)= .25* (ANNUAL MILES (MY I)) + . 75* (ANNUAL Ml LES (MY I - 1) )  ,  MYi=2	20+
                   DATE:  NOVEMBER  26,  1980

-------
                   A COMPARISON OF MOBILE1 to M03ILE2
1981 and Later Models - Without I/M

° Both analyses used  a  similar methodology in that  they  divided  the  fleet
  into different categories of vehicles.   The categories  are  delineated on
  the basis  of vehicle  operating condition.  The emissions performance of
  each category  of vehicles is  described by an  equation which  describes
  the emissions  produced  by  the vehicles  in a  category over tiroe.  The
  categories are then weighted  together to give  fleet emission factors.

0 The analyses  differ significantly,  however,  in that they  delinate very
  different categories of- vehicles.

c MOBILE1,  although  a good estimate  at the  time it was produced  (1978),
  was based on some assumptions that have  since proven wrong.   It was also
  based  on very limited data (9 Volvos).

0 MOBILE2  incorporates  new  assumptions,  based   on. the  best  information
  currently  on  hand,  and  is  based  on  a sizeable data 'base  obtained from
  representative "New Technology" vehicles actually  on the road.

    - (92)  1980 California X-Body's
    - (97)  1979 Ford 351 CID engine family
    - (29)  Miscellaneous Foreign and Domestic Fuel-Injected  vehicles (1979)

0 The major  phenomenon  observed in  the data," and  subsequently modeled in
  M02ILZ2,   was  the  presence  of  a  small  group  of  vehicles  which had
  suffered a  loss  o-f computer  control of  the  engine and were  thereafter
  producing  average  emissions  12*00%  of the  CO  standard  and  over  900% of
  the RC standard.   These vehicles were  low mileage  vehicles,  and even
  though they  made up only 5%  of the  fleet's population, they contributed
  50% of the  fleet's  overall  CO emissions' and  over 35%  of the  fleet's KC
  emissions.

0 MOBILE2•  delineated  a  category  mace  up  of these  kinds of  vehicles  and
  named   it   the  "Primary"  category.    The  size   of  the   Primary  category,
  (i.e.   the   incidence  of  vehicles  with  a  loss of computer  control)  is
  expected to  increase  as  the  fleet ages.  This  assumption  of an increas-
  ing incidence is  based  partly  on  limited data  of  higher  mileage  New
  Technology vehicles  (the Volvos)  as well as  on the engineering argument
  that the  system  will  continue to fail and  not  be repaired as components
  age and  as vehicle  owners have  less desire to correctly  maintain their
  vehicle.    Tampering and  improper  maintenance  will also contribute to  the
  incidence of this phenomenon.

0 Graph's  1-3  illustrate   the  concepts  discussed   above.   Note that  the
  misfueling  phenomenon   is  also  modeled   by   delineating   a  "Misfueling
  category  (a  static 8% of  the  fleet).   The remainder  of  the vehicles  in
  the   fleet  are   represented   by  the   Secondary  category:  generally
  well-maintained  vehicles and- vehicles with  a  problem which does not lead
  to  the Primary category  (i.e.,  does not lead to  a full,loss of computer
  control).

-------
    0 A  similar  approach  was  used   for  tfOx.    The   significant   phenomena
      accounted for were EGR  failure,  raisiueling,  and the NOx effects  of  what
      happens when a vehicle enters the HC/CO  Prinary category.

HI Pre 1981 Models With -I/M

0   A simulation program was  used  at EPA  to develop I/M benefits in  MOBILE2 as
    was done for MOBILE1.

0   The  simulation  tracks  a  fleet  of  cars  by model  year through 19 years  of
    experience with specified I/M.programs.   Percent  benefits to be  applied to
    emissions factors are  produced in a form usable by MOBILE2.

°,   M03ILZ2  contains  the  fixed benefits  which  are indexed by  stringency,  age
    of vehicles,  age  at first inspection, pollutant,  technology,  and presence
    or absence of mechanic training.

0   Both simulations started with samples of cars from Emission Factors.

•c   More cars were available  for MOBILE2 simulation

                         MOBILE1     •     •      MOBILE2

         Tech I      180 model years 1973-74    2678 model years 1968-74
         Tech II     587 model year 1975        2456 model years 1975-79

0  >iCBILEl  assumed  all  cars entered I/M  program  at one year of age.  MOBILE2
   considers age of vehicle when I/M starts.

0  M03ILE1  and  MOBILE2 both determine  cutpoints  at  initial  inspection  to
   obtain  desired  failure  rate and  keep  same cutpoints  year  to year  allowing
   failure,  rate to vary.

 6  MOBILE1  treats HC  and  CO completely independently.  In MOBILE2, both FTP HC
   and • CO  are affected by  any repair  and  relationships  between  FTP  and  idle
   include  both HC and  CO for predictive  purposes.

 0  MOBTLEl  (without  MT)  assumes  after  maintenance  idle  score  is equal- to
   cutpoint   if   specific  pollutant   was   failed.   MOBILE2  predicts  after
   maintenance  mean  idle   score   from  mean  mileage  and  both  HC  and  CO
   cutpoints.   Prediction  is based  on analysis of  data  from Portland  and New
   Jersey I/M programs.

0  MOBILE1  predicts  after  maintenance  FTP  from  cutpoint by  specific pollu-
   tant.   Prediction  based on data from cars which  were not  actually in I/M
   program.   MOBILE2 predicts  after  maintenance  mean FTP from mean  mileage,
   mean  idle scores (both HC and  CO)  and idle  test  failure  mode.   Prediction'
   based  on analysis of  Portland  Study  data from cars after actual I/M  field
   repairs.                                                      '        ' •  .

-------
   MOBILE1  fleet FTP deterioration  following maintenance  is  parallel  to nonl/M
   case.   In MOBILE2,  fleet FTP deteriorates  so as to  reach non-I/M  case  at
   fixed  mileage   increicent.'  -The  mileage  increment   was  determined . through
   analysis  of  Portland  Study data  from  cars  after '  actual  I/H repairs.   In
   general,  M03ILE2  reflects a greater  rate  of 'deterioration  following  main-
   tenance .
                    Mileage Increment  to Reach Non-I/M Case
                                  .  (MOBILE2)

                                            HC        CO.

               Tech I (pre 1975)           7,400    40,000
               Tech II (1975-79)   •        27,000   57,200

0  M03ILE1 assumes idle HC deteriorates as  an exact function of  FTP  HC.   Idle-
   CO function of  FTP  CO.   Relationships  based  on  data  from non-I/M  cars.   In
   MOBILE2,  each  idle  emission is  a  function of FTP  HC,  FT? CO, mileage  and
   C3D  plus  random  variation.   These  relationships  based  on  analysis  of
   Portland  Study data.                 '                      • -

0  In MOBILE!, mechanic  training  yields  after maintenance FTP levels equal to
   new car  standards.(unless  already  below standards).   In  MOBILE2,  these  FT?
   levels are  a  function  of  mileage  based  on  Portland  Mechanic  Training
   Study.  Levels are equal to  or slightly  below levels  already  being achieved
   in Portland  without  training (due  to  Portland's tight idle  outpoints)  and
   generally  above  new  car  standards.    Difference   between   trained  and
   untrained  levels after  re.pairs  will  be  larger  in  programs with  looser
   outpoints.

It 1981 and Later Models - With I/M

    0 MOBILE!1s  I/M  benefits  for the  1981-and-later  fleet were  based  on data
      from  a group  of  1975-76 California vehicles.   These vehicles represented
      the most  advanced  technology' vehicles  for which data  were available at
      the time_ .MOBILE1  was  d_eveloped.   Tney  were   not,  however,  Three-Way
      catalyst vehicles (i.e.  they were not really  representative).

    0 MOBILE2's  I/M  benefits  for _CO  are  based  on  the  ability of  the various
      I/M short  tests  to identify Primary  category vehicles.   HC benefits are
      based   on  the  identification  of  Primary   category  vehicles' and  the
      identification of vehicles with s.evere ignition and misfire problems.

    0 These  benefits are calculated  using  the  same  model  used  to  determine
      emission  factors without  I/M.  That  is,  a percentage  of the vehicles in
      the Primary category are  assumed to  be  identified  in an I/M program,
      repaired,  and thereafter  to  adopt  the emissions  performance  of  either
      the Secondary or Misfueling categories.

-------
°'The  benefits   associated  with   the'  identification  of  vehicles  with
  ignition/misfire  problems  are  modeled  by  lowering,  the   slope  of  the
  emission factor equations which  describe  the  HC emissions  performance of
  the various categories of the fleet.

0 The percentage  of Primary category  vehicles  identified by  an I/M program
  is  mainly   a  function  of  which I/M  test  is  used  amd   secondarily  a
  function of what  cutpoint  is  used.   That is,  some  tests  are  assumed to
  be  more  capable  of  identifying  Primary  category  vehicles  and  are
  therefore assigned more  benefit  if  they  are  used (e.g. 2500 rpm/Idle vs.
  Idle).

e The percentage  of Primary  category vehicles  identified  by a  given I/M
  short  test  is  known  as the  Identification  Rate.    The   Identification
  Sates  developed for  the various  short tests are based  on data from the
  Priaary  category . vehicles  found among  th-e  representative  in-use fleet
  described earlier.                                   -

0 The Identification  Rate therefore replaces Stringency Factor  as the key
  variable for  1981-and-later vehicles.

0 Actual  I/M  failure  rates of  lS81-and-later  vehicles  are  expected to be
  EO higher than  10 percent in  the  first year  of an I/M program  started on
  Jaauary  1,  19'83.   The  failure  rate  should  be lower  in  all  subsequent
  vesrs.

-------
 128"
  isa
^  £8
                               RICH rR!LU?l£
                               RISJ'USLED
                                                             JL
           S      2:86eS      43588     63383   .  82-388   .  182869
             16889     38898     55899  -..-.  78392     58888   .
                                                                              ••

-------
    HJSfUZLED
	 DTHE3

-------
                 INCREASE IN RICH  FRILURES  HiTH RGE
 100
in
uj 80
  60
o

c
Ul
o
s
Ul
0.
20
                                          NO I/H
                 20000     UOOOO      60000
                               MJLERGE
                                              80000    100000

-------
    HOBILE1 YS MOBILE2i XREDUCTIONS FROM 1/1/88 NO I/H LEVELS
 80
 75
 70
 65
 60
 55
o
-45
535
  25
  20
  15
  10
   5
   0
PPIOGRRM STRRTUP 1/1/83
       HC
PRE-1981 MODEL TERRS
                              MOBILE2-HT
                                    HOBILE2-NO HT
        HOBILE1-MT
MOB I LEI -NO  MT

       10
            20
    30
STRINCENCT
50

-------
    MOBILE1 VS MOB1LE2I ^REDUCTIONS  FROH  1/1/88  HO  I/M  LEVELS
 80
 75 L
 70
 55
 SO
 55
 50
PROCRRM STRRTUP 1/1/83
       CO
PRE-1981 MODEL TERRS
£35
 25
 20
 15
 10
   5
   0
                         MOB I LE 1 -MT
                                -NO MT
       10
                        SO
                    STRINCENCT
50

-------
    KOB1LE1 YS HOBILE2» ^REDUCTIONS FROM 1/1/88 HO I/M LEVELS
 80
 75
 70
 65
 60
 55
z50
o
-US
  35
  25
  20
  15
  10
   5
   0
PROGRflH STRRTUP 1/1/83
      HC
   1981* MODEL  TERRS
,l>'--'
                 KOBILE1-MT
                                 MOB1LE2-2-SPEED UNLORDED
                 HOBILE2-1DLE JEST
                 KOBILE1-HO MT
       10
   20
    30
STRIHGENCT

-------
    MOBILE! YS MOBILE2i ^REDUCTIONS FROM 1/1/88 HO  I/M  LEVELS
 80
 75
 65
 60
 55
  25
  20
  15
                 PROGRRM STRRTUP 1/1/83
 70 •••                  CO
19B1* MODEL TERRS
                         ILE1-MT
^._                   HOBILEE-2-SPEED UNLORDED
Uj93
C30
X
  MOBILES-IDLE TEST.
                      MOBILE1-NO  MT
  10
   5
       10            20           30           40           50
                            STRINGENCT

-------
   K06ILE1 V3 MDBILE21  ^REDUCTIONS FROM 1/1/88 HO I/M LEVELS
80
75
70
85
60
55
50
         5TRBTUP  1/1/83
        HC
   TOTflL FLEET
(TECH  IY«2-SPEED  IDLE)
                  .1**'
                              LE1-HT

                          MOBILE2-MT
                          ^====gs^
                          HOBILE2-HO MT
                               MOBILEl-lfD «T
20
15
10
 5
 0
     10
             20
    30
3TBIHOEHCT
50

-------
    MOBILE1 YS MDBILE2i XREDUCTIONS  FROM  1/1/88  NO  I/H LEVELS
 80
 75
 70
 85
 BO
 55
 50
£35
 25
 20
 15
 10
   5
   0
PROGRRH STRRTUP 1/1/83
       CO
   TOTflL  FLEET
  (TECH IVt 2-SPEED IDLE)
                                      MOBILE1-MT
                                             HOBILE1-NO HT
       10
            20
    30
STRINCENCT
50

-------
 100
H  80


•o
BS
e:
o
   60
£  20
co
             I/M REDUCES THE NUMBER OF PRIMARY CATEGORY VEHICLES
                     NO  J/H

                     J/H
                   20000      UOOOO      SOOOO

                                   MJLERGE
                                                      80000
100000

-------
60



70



60
40
20



10



 0
                               .  ,  .< ,< A A '*•/>.•*>.*.
                           /\/\/VVVv *****
HO I/M

I/M
                    6    8   10   12   U

                     MILEROE  C/10.000J
                 16
18   20

-------