EPA-AA-HDV  77-01
            Technical Support Report for Regulatory Action

                            (INTERIM REPORT)

                  Selection of Transient Cycles for
                          Heavy-Duty Engines
                               Tad Wysor
                                  and
                            Chester France
                             November 1977
                                Notice

     Technical support reports for regulatory action do not necessarily
represent the final EPA decision on regulatory issues.   They are intended
to present a technical analysis of an issue and recommendations resulting
from the assumptions and constraints of that analysis.   Agency policy
considerations or data received subsequent to the date  of release of
this report may alter the conclusions reached.  Readers are cautioned to
seek the latest analysis from EPA before using the information contained
herein.
               Standards Development and Support Branch
                 Emission Control Technology Division
             Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control
                  Office of Air and Waste Management
                 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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Foreword



This report presents summary statistics of  those candidate cycles




generated by computer to be representative  of the CAPE-21  data base and




selects one cycle for each category  that is most representative. The




selections are based solely upon  statistical considerations.  Further




evaluations of the candidate cycles  must still be made in terms of the




practical aspects of running the  cycles on  the dynamometer, and in terms




of their physical representativeness of real operation.  The cycles




identified herein are being used  by  EPA as  a basis for developing its




test facilities.  This report  is  being released at this time in response




to numerous requests by organizations considering the development of




transient test facilities to give an indication of the types of cycles




that are expected to be used in future certification procedures.









This report has been labelled  as  an  "interim" report to emphasize the




tenative nature of the selected cycles.  As indicated above, EPA plans




further evaluation of the cycles.  Along these lines, one problem has




already been identified with the  New York non-freeway cycle for gasoline




engines.  It has been shown that  this cycle has excessive high speed




(RPM)  operation.  The problem  has been attributed to one truck contri-




buting bad data to the input data base rather than to the computer cycle




generation procedure.  An addendum has been attached to this report




which  addresses this specific  problem and provides a recommended solution.




EPA has not made a  final determination regarding this "problem" cycle.

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         Selection of Transient Cycles for Heavy-Duty Engines
Summary

     As a product of the heavy-duty engine cycle development effort,
computer-generated engine cycles have been provided by Olson Labs.  Out
of three candidate cycles in each of 8 truck categories, one cycle from
each category was chosen as the most representative of the actual truck
data.  Using the cycle's summary statistics calculated by Olson and the
power and RPM density functions, the cycles in each category were scored.
Table 1 lists the selected five-minute cycles by their designated random
numbers.  A second-by-second listing for each of these selected cycles
is included in Appendix B.

                                Table 1

               Category                                Cycle

          LA  Gas     Non-Freeway                    203887989
              Gas     Freeway                        29664A805
              Diesel  Non-Freeway                    2110248101
              Diesel  Freeway                        1599345415

          NY  Gas     Non-Freeway                    8410263
              Gas     Freeway                        792043535
              Diesel  Non-Freeway                    2114147447
              Diesel  Freeway                        104099549

Background and Introduction

     Since the CAPE-21 truck-usage data has become available, there has
been an effort to generate computer cycles which simulate the real-life
driving patterns.  CAPE-21 refers to an EPA project which was conducted
as a means of acquiring an accurate picture of actual urban truck
operation.  In each of the cities of Los Angeles and New York, forty-
four in use trucks (plus 3 buses in Los Angeles and 4 in New York) were
instrumented to record vehicle and engine data on an approximately
second-by-second basis.   The parameters of interest were vehicle speed,
engine speed, road and traffic conditions, and a load parameter (i.e., a
measure of power, such as manifold vacuum or rack position).  With this
compiled information as a basis, an attempt has been made to synthesize -
via computer — cycles of relatively short duration which simulate the
operating characteristics of the total real-life sample.   The intent is
to make possible in-lab testing which is indeed representative of on-
the-road operation.

     Olson Laboratories has provided candidate cycles — both chassis
and engine cycles — produced from the New York and Los Angeles data.
The selection of the engine cycles is the concern of this particular
report.

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                                 -2-
     Twenty-four computer-generated 5-minute engine cycles were provided,
three in each of the following eight road categories:

          Los Angeles         Gas     Non-Freeway
                              Gas     Freeway
                              Diesel  Non-Freeway
                              Diesel  Freeway

          New York            Gas     Non-Freeway
                              Gas     Freeway
                              Diesel  Non-Freeway
                              Diesel  Freeway

     Although numerous cycles were generated, only a few passed the
screening criteria developed by Malcolm Smith of Olson.   He selected
from these the best three in each category and submitted them as the
candidate cycles.  It was necessary for EPA to choose one candidate
cycle for each category.

     The primary way by which the cycles were compared and rated was
with the Kolgomorov-Smirnov one-sample test, hereafter abbreviated "K-S
test".  The K-S test is a non-parametric statistical test concerned with
the degree of agreement between two distributions.  It determines whether
two distributions can reasonably be thought to have come from the same
population.  Specifically, the candidate cycle cumulative distributions
are compared to the CAPE-21 cumulative distribution (assumed to be the
theoretical distributions).  When compared on an increment-by-increment
basis, there will occur at some point a maximum difference D between the
two distributions.  D can be related to a level of significance, a,
which depends on the size of the sample.  If the maximum difference D
exceeds the critical difference for that sample size at a particular
significance level (a), then the sample does not pass the K-S test and
it must be assumed that the two distributions are dissimilar.  Table 2
relates sample size to significance levels and critical differences.

                                Table 2*
                                     Significance Level a
Sample Size (N)
Over 35
.20
1.07
/IT
.15
1.14
/IF
.10
1.22
/IF
.05
1.36
/IF
.01
1.63
/IF
The computed values are the critical differences for a particular N.  The
smallest critical difference which exceeds the maximum difference D for
the test yields the significance level.
*  from Nonparametric Statistics, Sidney Siegel,  McGraw-Hill, NY, 1956.

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                                 -3-
     In digression, the significance level is the probability of rejecting
a true hypothesis when it is actually true.  In relation to the K-S
test, significance level is the probability of not accepting two distri-
butions as being the same, when in reality they are.  This type of error
is acceptable when comparing two cumulative distributions.  Therefore,
it is desirable to have a large significance level, since this results
in more assurance that the two distributions being compared are really
the same.  For most engineering and statistical applications, significance
levels of .05 or .10 are adequate.

     Each cycle was compared with the input data in two ways by means of
K-S tests (as detailed below).  In this manner the acceptability of the
particular cycle could be rated.

Selection Procedure

     The procedure for selecting a best of the three candidates in each
truck category involved ranking the cycles according to three main
criteria:  1) The overall summary statistics for each cycle, 2) the
agreement of the distribution functions (for power and RPM) with the
input data, as screened by the K-S test, and 3) a visual rating of the
density plots.  In most cases a clear choice for each category could be
made according to these criteria.

     A table of Summary Statistics was provided by Olson for each candi-
date cycle; they reflect several ways in which the cycle parameters were
compared to those of the input.  Olson was able to compile the massive
road data into a matrix relating observed initial and final values for
both engine speed and power.  It is from this matrix that the numerous
cycles were generated (out of which the three best cycles in each cate-
gory were "filtered").  The cycles themselves were, for testing purposes,
converted to initial/final RPM and power matrices, and various portions
of the matrix were tested for similarity with the corresponding portions
of the input matrix.

     The screening test was accomplished by arranging the rows of several
sectors of both the cycle matrix and the input matrix into cumulative
distribution functions.   The K-S test as described above could then be
applied to the distributions, and the summary statistics present the
significance levels at which the cycle passed (or failed).  Table 3 shows
that tests were done on the matrix as a whole, on the diagonal of the
matrix, and on the upper and lower portions (above and below the diagonal).

     It can also be seen from Table 3 that several other parameters were
tabulated in the statistics — for the input as well as for each candidate
cycle.  The fraction of occurrence which the cycle matrix exhibits in
the upper, lower, diagonal (less idle),  and idle (RPM and power both
equal zero) portions are tabulated in the "CYCLE PERCENTAGES" column of
Table 3.  Also, the percentages of the cycle that the engine speed or

-------
                                  -4-
                       KEY TO TABLES 3 AND 4
K-S Significance Levels:      M    Total Matrix
                              D    Matrix Diagonal
                              V    Portion Above Diag. (upper)
                              L    Portion Below Diag. (lower)

RPM and Power Percentages:    A    Percent Acceleration
                              D    Percent Deceleration
                              C    Percent Cruise
                              Z    Percent Zero
                              M    Percent Motoring (power only)

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TABLE 3
Significance
Level
LA
GAS Input
NON 85063489
FWY 2038877989
2113161687
GAS Input
FWY 1256706477
1223400511
296644805
DSL Input
NON 2110248101
FWY 2124416999
279615
DSL Input
FWY 1599345415
1109958927
1041454501
M

.14
.15
.11

.01
.01
.20

.80
.13
.10

.43
.14
.16
D

.22
.74
.45

.15
.01
.15

1.0
.39
.93

.17
.15
.38
U

.20
.94
.83

.01
.20
.20

.55
.50
.26

.76
.75
.42
L

.47
.32
.93

.15
.05
.20

.22
.13
.39

.59
.56
.58
U
31
35
31
28
29
30
32
28
30
28
29
28
36
37
34
37
Cycle
Percentages
L
28
24
29
28
29
30
28
28
26
29
29
28
35
36
29
26
D
16
18
14
16
40
38
38
41
10
10
10
9
27
24
35
35
Idle
25
23
26
29
2
2
2
2
35
34
31
34
2
2.3
2.2
2.3
Mean
KPM
26
27
27
24
63
61
64
64
43
43
45
45
84
83
83
82
RPM
Percentages
A
25
31
27
21
19
24
23
22
26
26
27
25
26
27
25
26
D
22
18
23
21
18
23
19
16
22
24
27
27
24
25
26
28
C
24
26
22
23
60
51
57
60
14
13
13
14
48
46
48
44
Z
29
25
29
36
3
2
2
2
38
37
33
35
2
2
2
3
Mean
Power
31
38
33
32
63
75
67
68
22
26
21
20
54
56
64
51
Power
Percentages
A
16
16
15
16
17
15
21
14
14
12
13
15
22
22
20
22
D
18
19
18
18
18
15
18
18
15
14
14
15
22
23
18
18
C
24
36
29
23
55
59
49
59
13
18
12
16
38
41
44
42
M
14
6
11
14
7
8
8
7
22
21
31
21
16
12
15
14
z
29
24
27
29
3
4
3
2
35
34
31
34
3
3
3*1,
3'
NY
GAS Input
NON 8410263
FWY 2189178847
2140599455
GAS Input
FWY 792043535
229633293
202045271
DSL Input
NON 2114147447
FWY 5618007
2145368549
DSL Input
FWY 81204277
76964269
104099549

.41
.13
.18

.13
.036
.087

.35
.28
.18

.15
.42
.32

.72
.67
.55

.72
.61
.21

.99
.42
1.0

.16
.43
.09

.35
.12
.20

.57
.14
.59

.13
.81
.13

.06
.56
.35

.65
.61
.24

.43
.098
.27

.41
.53
.12

.15
.54
.22
23
23
26
20
33
33
31
32
21
19
19
23
32
35
31
32
23
22
18
21
31
31
37
31
21
21
21
22
32
31
25
31
14
12
9
10
26
24
22
26
7
6
6
8
17
12
22
12
40
41
46
49
10
12
10
11
51
55
53
48
19
22
22
25
13
12
13
13
48
50
50
50
20
20
19
19
53
54
53
52
18
19
20
16
23
25
23
28
17
14
15
19
25
28
25
26
17
17
13
18
21
17
29
24
16
15
17
17
25
24
20
23
17
10
14
14
45
46
38
36
8
8
6
5
25
23
30
23
47
54
53
52
12
12
10
11
58
63
63
58
24
25
25
28
19
20
16
16
50
48
48
58
16
16
14
19
42
48
50
41
14
14
13
11
19
18
19
16
13
12
12
12
17
20
12
18
14
16
15
10
20
24
20
17
12
12
11
12
17
20
U
14
12
12
11
32
31
25
34
12
14
10
15
26
30
if
16
17
12
17
18
13
25
21
11
8
14
12
20
8
a
42
42
48
51
11
13
11
11
51
55
54
48
20
23
H

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Significance
Level
LA M
GAS 85063489 2
NON 2038877989 1
2113161687 3
GAS 1256706477 2
FWY 1223400511 2

DSL 2110248101 1
NON 2124416999 2
FWY 279615 3
DSL 1599345415 1
FWY '1109958927 3
1091454501 2

NY

NON 2109178847 3
FWY 2140599455 2
GAS 792043535 1
FWY 229633293 3
202045271 2
DSL 2114147447 1
NON 5618007 2
FWY 2145368549 3
DSL 81204277 3
FWY 76964269 1
104099549 2
D
3
1

1
2

1
3
2
2
3
1



2
3
1
2
3
2
3
1
2
1
3
U
3
1

2
1

1
2
3
1
2
3



3
2
2
3
1
2
1
2
3
1
2
L
2
3

2
3

2
3
1
1
3
2



2
3
1
3
2
2
1
3
3
1
2
U
2
1

1
2

2
1
2
1
2
1



2
2
1
3
2
1
1
1
3
2
1
Cycle-
TABLE 4
Percentages
L
3
2

1
1

2
2
1
1
2
3



3
2
I
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
D
2
2

2
2

1
1
2
1
2
2



3
2
2
3
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
Idle
2
1

1
1

1
2
1
2
1
2



2
3
3
1
2
3
1
2
1
1
2
Mean
RPM
1
1

2
1

1
2
2
1
1
2



3
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
RPM
Percentages
A
3
1

3
2
i

1
2
2
2
2
1



2
2
2
1
3
2
1
1
3
1
2
D
2
1

3
1
0

1
2
2
1
2
3



3
2
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
3
2
C
2
2

3
2
i

2
2
1
2
1
3



1
1
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
1
Z
2
1

1
1
i

1
3
2
1
1
2



2
1
1
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
Mean
Power
3
2

3
1

3
1
2
1
3
2



3
2
1
1
2
1
2
3
2
3
1
Power
Percentages
A
1
2

1
3
•>

2
1
1
1
2
1



2
3
2
1
3
1
1
1
2
3
1
D
2
1

3
2
i

2
2
1
1
2
2



1
3
3
1
2
1
2
1
3
2
1
C
3
2

1
2
i

3
1
2
1
3
2



1
2
1
3
2
1
1
2
3
2
1
M
3
2

2
2
i

1
2
1
3
1
2



2
1
2
3
1
2
2
1
3
1
2
Z
3
2

2
1

1
2
1
1
1
1



2
3
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
Total
Scores
44
29
31
44
41
97

29
36
32
25
37
37


9A
42
40
30
40
35
29
28
33
39
30
31
Overall
Ranking
3
1
2
3
2

1
3
2
1
2
2
I
o\
i

3
2
1
3
2
2
1
3
3
1
2

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                                  -7-
power was increasing (ACCEL.)» decreasing (DECEL.), remaining constant
(CRUISE), or at zero percent of its absolute reference (ZERO) appear
under the RPM- and POWER PERCENTAGES.  It will be noted that a fifth
parameter is included under the POWER PERCENTAGES — "motoring" occurs
when the engine is producing negative power (when coasting downhill
against the engine, for example).  Finally, the mean RPM and Power are
tabulated.  The summary statistics, then, present the characteristics of
the cycle which the generation process was designed to key upon.  It is
expected that a reasonable correlation would exist in these areas with
respect to the input data (as is indeed the case).

     Returning to the selection procedure, the candidates were ranked
according to their summary statistics.  Table A gives the 1-2-3 scoring
that was given each cycle for each of the parameters of Table 3 (1 =
best, 3 = worst).  The highest significance levels were ranked first,
whereas the other parameters were compared to input values with the
closest match scoring highest.  The total scores for the cycles reflect
a general ranking within each category; the cycle scoring the fewest
points will be favored over the other contenders in this aspect of the
selection process, as reflected by the final rankings for each category.
This does not necessarily mean the best overall cycle is picked, but
certainly some indication of how well the cycle fared with regard to
these particular parameters is obtained.  This scoring procedure is not
flawless — all parameters are weighted equally, for example — so a
cycle which scores a close second could be easily chosen if other selection
criteria favor it.

     As a second criterion on which to base the selection of the cycles,
a K-S test was performed on the cumulative distribution functions.  This
was a way of getting a feel for the quality of the RPM and power density
functions, considered important because percent operation at, say, full
power or at a certain engine speed can dramatically influence emissions.
The RPM density functions were plotted in increments of 6% and those for
power in increments of 10%*.  By summing the frequency percentages
incrementally, the cumulative distributions were produced.  Then these
cycle distributions could be compared increment-by-increment with the
respective input distributions (derived for the same increments).   The
result of this process was a K-S significance level for both the RPM and
power distribution functions for each cycle.  Hence another means of
ranking the three candidiates in each category was provided.  Table 5
presents the K-S results and a general scoring within each category; a
sample K-S test is included in Appendix A.  Again,  the higher the significance
level the better.

     It may be unclear exactly why a cycle can score well on Olson's
K-S criteria and yet display a poor density function.   One reason is
simply that the generation process was not designed to simulate the
density function — just the initial/final matrix.   Also, the length of
* v vm* •   A f  j u       RPM - RPM)  Idle
* % RPM is defined here as	
                           RPM)rated - RPM)idle

  %'Power is the percent of the maximum power at  the  RPM in  question.

-------
                                -8-
                                Table 5
     Category




LA   Gas     Non-Freeway









             Freeway
     Diesel  Non-Freeway
             Freeway
NY   Gas
Non-Freeway
             Freeway
     Diesel  Non-Freeway
             Freeway
—  indicates cycle did not pass at .01 level.
K-S Significance Level
Cycle
850-
203-
2113-
296-
125-
122-
2110-
212-
279-
159-
109-
110-
841-
210-
214-
792-
229-
202-
2114-
2145-
561-
812-
769-
104-
RPM
.20
.20
.10
.20
.01
.01
.20
.10
.15
.20
.15
.20
.20
.20
.20
.15
.01
.01
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
.20
POWER

.20
.20
__
—
.01
.20
.01
.20
.01
.20
— —
.20
.01
—
.10
—
—
.20
.20
.10
	
—
.15
Ranking
3
1
2
2
3
1
1
3
2
2
1
3
1
2
3
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
1

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                                  -9-
the 5-minute cycles is sufficiently short that it is difficult for the
computer to sample the entire population (as represented by the input
matrix), and this may also affect the frequency of occurrence of various
RPM and power values.  However, since the generation process tends
toward cycles with good mean RPM and power correlation with the input
(See Table 3), there is reason to expect that, for the most part, the
generated cycles will have reasonable density functions (and this is
generally the case).

     The third criterion by which the cycles were rated was simply a
visual comparison of the power and RPM density plots for the various
candidates to their respective input density plots.  Agreement with the
input depended on the general shape of the density function and the
location of the peaks and valleys.  Because of its obvious lack of
precision, this factor in the selection process was generally weighted
less heavily than the other two.  Again the cycles in each category have
been given a ranking (Table 6) according to this visual test.  It must
be clarified here that a numerical ranking in this case is of only
limited significance.  The two previous selection criteria have at least
a partial quantative value; the scoring by visual inspection of the
density plots, however, is necessarily more subjective.  The reader is
warned against assuming that the 1-2-3 scoring implies some rigid
numerical significance in this third phase of the selection procedure.
(For the sake of reference, the power and RPM density functions for the
selected cycles as presented in Figures 1-16; the remaining plots are
found in Appendix C.)

     Table 7 is a summary of the rankings of each candidate cycle based
on each of the three criteria as well as a final ranking within each
category.  Again, the ranking is only a qualitative guage of the cycles'
quality since the relative weighting of each criterion is not reflected.
The verbal discussion of the cycle selections presented below gives a
clearer view of the factors involved in each decision.

Discussion

     What follows is a brief rationale for each cycle selection.  The
chosen cycles, which are listed in Table 1, are denoted by the first
three digits of their random number.  The summary statistics (Tables 3
and 4), the K-S results (Table 5), and the density functions (Figures
1-16 and Appendix C) should be helpful.

     LA Gas Non-Freeway:  Cycle 203- has the best statistics, of the
candidates for this category, but cycle 211- is a close second.   The
deciding factor was the K-S test on the density function,  which showed
a better RPM correlation with the input for #203-.  The visual check
reflected the superior RPM density curve, and //203- was chosen.

-------
60 --
50 --
40 -
30  ' '
20 •-
10 - •
                                                                                    L.A. Gas Non-Freeway
                                                                                        203887989
      Figure 1

L.A. Gas Non-Freeway
      203887989

Key: 	 Cycle
     	 Input
                                                                                                              o
                                                                                       I I  I  I  I  I I  I  I  |  I I  |  I
    -20-14-8  -2   4  10  16 2228  34  40  46  52  58  64  70 76  82  88   94100106112118124130136142148154
                                                         RPM

-------
60  -•
                                                                                     L.A. Gas  Freeway
                                                                                         296644805
50  - •
      Figure 2

L.A. Gas Freeway
      296644805

Key: 	 Cycle
     	 Input
40  - -
 30  -
 20  • •
 10 . .
    -20 -14 -8  -
*•— ^^^_.^** V*^^~*MH
0 16 22 28 34
•WI^M
40


46


52

58
»«•
I
64

70
	

76


82


88 94 100 106 112
                                                                                             I  t I I I  I  I > I I  I
                                                         RPM

-------
60  •'
50  -•
40  --
30  ..
20  -.
10  --
                                      L.A.  Diesel Non-Freeway
                                            2110248101
      Figure 3

L.A. Diesel Non-Freeway
     2110248101

Key: 	 Cycle
     	 Input
                                                                                                              N5
                                                                                                              I
                                 i1
               4-
•4-
                                                                                       I I I  I  I  I I  I  III
-20-14-3  -2  4  10  16  22  28  34  40 46  52  58 64  70  76  82  88   94  100106112118124130136142148154
                                                        RPM

-------
60 - -
50 . .
40 - -
30  . .
20 - -
10  .-
                                      L.A. Diesel Freeway
                                           1599345415
      Figure 4

 L.A.  Diesel Freeway
     1599345415

Key: 	 Cycle
     	 Input
                                                                                I rri  i i i i  i  i i i  i  i i i  i
    -20-14-8   -2  4   10 16  22  28 34  40  46  52  58 64  70 76  82  88  94 100106 112118124130136142148 154
                                                       RPM

-------
60 --
50 -
40 - -
30 - -
20 - -
10 ..
                                                                                 N.Y. Gas Non-Freeway

                                                                                      8410263
                       Figure 5



                 N.Y. Gas Non-Freeway

                        8410263



                 Key: 	 Cycle

                      	 Input
                                                                                                              •e-
                                                                                                              i
    -20 -14  -8   -2
                                                                  I I  I  I  I  I I  I  I  I  I  I I
10  16  22  28 34  40  46  52  58  64  70  76  82  88  94  100  10.6112118124 130136142148154

-------
60  .
50  --
40  - -
 30 . .
 20 - -
 10 . _
                                                                               N.Y.  Gas Freeway
                                                                                  792043535
      Figure 6

  N.Y. Gas Freeway
      792043535

Key: 	 Cycle
     	 Input
                                                                                                               Ui
                                                                                                               i
















• «•» •





— — —
"* •* — *








»~ w





•»— > —










	





••••^•4





» •»





• •> «»






.- -.






••*-••
"* ^ ""^ .. ^
— 1— L_M— — .





	 __ n^a
      -20 -14 -8  -2   4   10  16  22 28  34  40  46  52 58  64  70  76  82 88  94 100 106 112 118 124 130 136142 148154

                                                         RPM

-------
60 --
                                                                             N.Y. Diesel Non-Freeway
                                                                                   2114147447
50--
                                             Figure 7

                                      N.Y. Diesel Non-Freeway
                                            2114147447

                                       Key: 	 Cycle
                                            	 Input
40 --
30 --
20 _.
10 --
    -20-14-8
                                                                                               I |  I  i  I I  I  I  I
                   4  10  16  22  28  34  40  46 52  5864  70 76  82  88  94  100106112118124130136142148154
                                                       RPM

-------
60 --
50 . .
40 - -
30 . .
20 -•
10
                                                                              N.Y.  Diesel Freeway
                                                                                    104099549
      Figure 8

 N.Y. Diesel Freeway
      104099549

Key: 	 Cycle
     	 Input
                                                                                          rht-M-l-H-i-i  I
    -20-14-8  -2   4   10  16 2228  34  40 46  52 58  64  70  76  82  88 94  100106112118124130136142148154
                                                       RPM

-------
60  -
                                                             L.A.  Gas  Non-Freeway
                                                                  203887989
50 - '
                     Figure 9

               L.A. Gas Non-Freeway
                     203887989

               Key: 	 Cycle
                    	 Input
40 - -
30 --
 20 --
 10 --
                                                                                                               oo
                                                                                                               I
      Motoring   0*
     (Negatives)
10**
20
30
40       50

 % Power
60
                                                                          *

                                                                          ft*
  70


0 £ % < 5

5 < % < 15
80
90
                                                                                  100

-------
60 4
50 4
40 4
30  4
 20  4
 10  -l-
                                              L.A. Gas Freeway
                                                 296644805
      Figure 10

  L.A. Gas Freeway
      296644805

Key: 	 Cycle
     	 Input
                                                                                                                 v£>



•»->-.*-.•.-.



1
Mo tor in
(Negativ
-





.^-._«__ --

g 0*
es)






.*_ .w — — -

10**








20





	

1
30








40
% Pow




~*



50
er



_ — . _ _ Ml



I
60







1
70


-
- — 	 	




80








90
	







100
                                                                          *  0 <_ % < 5

                                                                          ** 5 < % < 15

-------
60  --
                                         L.A. Diesel Non-Freeway
                                               2110248101
50  ' -
40  ••
       Figure 11

L.A. Diesel Non-Freeway
      2110248101

 Key: 	 Cycle
      	 Input
% 30 -
20 -
10 -

i
'
Motoring 0*
(Negatives)
i
ho
o

	 1 r^ 	 3--— ' 1 	 	
i i i i ill ililiii'
10** 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% Power
                                                                      *   0 <_ % < 5

                                                                      **  5 < % < 15

-------
60 +
50 +
40 +
'30 +
 lot
                                            L.A.  Diesel Freeway
                                                1599345415
      Figure 12

 L.A. Diesel Freeway
     1599345415

Key: 	 Cycle
     	 Input
                                                                                                                I
                                                                                                                to
                                                              +
      Motoring    0*
     (Negatives)
10**     20       30       40       50

                            % Power
                               60
                                                                       *  0 <_
                                                                       ** 5 <
                                                                                 70
                                      % < 5
                                      % < 15
80
90
100

-------
    60  --
                                                                                        N.Y.  Gas  Non-Freeway

                                                                                               8410263
    50  -•
                     Figure 13


               N.Y.  Gas Non-Freeway
                      8410263
    40  "
%   30  --
    20  -•
    10  --
                      +
                                             Key:
                          Cycle
                          Input
                                                                                                                    i
                                                                                                                    NJ
                                                                                                                    tv>
                                                                                                                    1
                            •+•
           Motoring   0*
          (Negatives)
10**
20
30       40       50


          % Power
60
70
80
90
100
                                                                           * -0 ^ % < 5

                                                                           **  5 < % < 15

-------
60 -'
                                                              N.Y.  Gas Freeway
                                                                 792043535
50  - -
                     Figure 14


                 N.Y. Gas Freeway

                     792043535


               Key: 	 Cycle
                    	 Input
40  ' '
 30  • -
                                                                                                                i
                                                                                                                NJ
                                                                                                                U>
                                                                                                                I
 20 - -
 10
         •4-
       Motoring   0*

      (Negatives)
10**
20
30
40       50


 % Power
                                                                        60
                                                        70
                                                       80
                                                        90
                                                       100
                                                                         **
                                                   0 <_

                                                   5 <
                                               < 5

                                               < 15

-------
60  -'
50  -•
40  "
 30  --
 20  ••
 10
                                                           N.Y.  Diesel Non-Freeway
                                                                 2114147447
                     Figure 15

              N.Y.  Diesel Non-Freeway
                    2114147447

               Key: 	 Cycle
                    	 Input
                                                                                                                i
                                                                                                                NJ
       Motoring   0*
      (Negatives)
10**
20
30
                                                      40
                                     50
                                    60
                                                       % Power
    70



0 <_ % < 5

5 < % < 15
                                                                                          80
90
100

-------
60  •
50   '
 30   ' '
 20
 10
                    Figure 16

               N.Y. Diesel Freeway
                    104099549

              Key: 	 Cycle
                   	 Input
                                                       •4-
                                                           N.Y.  Diesel Freeway
                                                                104099549
                                                                                                                ro
                                                                                                                i_n
                                                                                                                I
       Motoring    0*
      (Negatives)
10**     20       30       40       50

                            % Power
                                                                         60
                                                                         *
                                                                         **
                                                 0
                                                 5
70
 < 5
 < 15
80
90
100

-------
                              -26-
                                Table 6
     Category




LA   Gas     Non-Freeway









             Freeway









     Diesel  Non-Freeway









             Freeway











NY   Gas     Non-Freeway









             Freeway











     Diesel  Non-Freeway









             Freeway
n Visual
Cycle
850-
203-
2113-
296-
125-
122-
2110-
212-
279-
159-
109-
110-
841-
210-
214-
792-
229-
202-
2114-
2145-
561-
812-
769-
104-
Inspection of Plots
Ranking
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
3
2
1
1
2
2
3
1

-------
                                     -27-
                                     Table 7
                      Ranking Summary and Final Rankings
     Category
LA   Gas     Non-Freeway
             Freeway
     Diesel  Non-Freeway
             Freeway
850-
203-
2113-

296-
125-
122-

2110-
212-
279-

159-
109-
110-

Summary
Statistics
(Table 4)
3
1
2
1
3
2
1
3
2
1
2
2
Distri-
bution
K-S Test
(Table 5)
3
1
2
2
3
1
1
3
2
2
1
3
Visual
Ranking
of Plots
(Table 6)
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
3
2
1
1
1



Scores
8
3
6
4
8
5
3
9
6
4
4
6


Final
Ranking
3
1*
2
1*
3
2
1*
3
2
1*
1
2
NY   Gas     Non-Freeway
             Freeway
841-
210-
214-

792-
229-
202-
1
3
2
1
3
2
1
2
3
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
3
2
3
6
7
3
8
6
1*
2
3
1*
3
2
     Diesel  Non-Freeway
             Freeway
2114-
2145-
561-

812-
769-
104-
2
3
1
3
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
3
1
4
5
5
7
6
4
1*
2
2
3
2
1*
*  Indicates the chosen cycle in each category.

-------
                              -28-
     LA Gas Freeway;  The summary statistics heavily favor  cycle  296-,
but this cycle fails the density K-S test for power.  However,  the  other
candidates also did poorly; and since the K-S difference which  failed
the power density function is relatively low for #296- * and  the  RPM
test was passed easily, it seemed to be the best choice.  Further,
comparison of the input and cycle density plots for #296- shows no
massive divergence, although there is slightly more operation in  the
higher power range than might be desirable.

     LA Diesel Non-Freeway:  Of the three candidates, cycles  211- and
279- are in contention as regards the statistics, with #211-  favored on
the basis of its high score in the overall matrix K-S significance  level
(.80).  As far as the density K-S correlations are concerned, the chosen
cycle 211- is better, as borne out by the density plots themselves  (211-
shows smoother functions).

     LA .Diesel Freeway:  The statistics clearly favor cycle 159-, espe-
cially with the high overall matrix significance level.  Cycle  109-,
however, scored better on the density K-S test, and visual  comparison
also showed that both cycles were in contention with respect  to density.
The final choice of 159- reflects the greater weight given  to the summary
statistics, although cycle 109- would not have been an unreasonable
choice.

     NY Gas Non-Freeway:  There can be little doubt that cycle  841- is
the best choice for this category; both the summary statistics  and  the
density K-S test strongly favor this cycle.  The visual check supports
the choice as well.

     NY Gas Freeway:  Again, this choice was not difficult.   The best
statistics are found for cycle 792-, and it is the only cycle to pass
the power density K-S test.  The density plots — especially  those  de-
picting RPM— further bear out this selection.

     NY Diesel Non-Freeway:  The scoring of the summary statistics
showed cycles 211- and 561- to be very close contenders, with #214- a
close third.  Since all three passed the density K-S test rather nicely,
the decision was not clear-cut.  Cycle 561- is not as good  as the others
according to the power K-S test, and #214- is lacking in summary sta-
tistics; hence the choice was #211-.  The density plots were  so similar
that the visual test was of little help.

     NY Diesel Freeway:  In contention here, by the statistics, are
cycles 769- and 104-, perhaps with a slight advantage toward  the former.
However, only #104- passed both the power and RPM K-S tests.  Since the
density plots for #769 show an excessive amount of operation  in the
higher power ranges, cycle 104- becomes the reasonable choice.
*  Critical difference was .085 at a = .01, maximum difference for cycle
was  .105.

-------
                               -29-
Conclusions

     The table below shows .the selected cycle for each category;  the
cycles are denoted by their random number designations.
               Category
          LA
Gas
Gas
Diesel
Diesel
Non-Freeway
Freeway
Non-Freeway
Freeway
          NY
Gas     Non-Freeway
Gas     Freeway
Diesel  Non-Freeway
Diesel  Freeway
203887989
296644805
2110248101
1599345415

8410263
792043535
2114147447
104099549
Second-by-second listings for these cycles may be found in the Appendix.

     These cycles are judged to be the most representative of the CAPE-21
data base.  The selections are made based upon statistical considerations
only.  Further evaluation of the candidate cycles must still be made in
terms of the practical aspects of running the cycles on the dynamometer.
                                                                    r. v

-------
                                 -30-
APPENDIX  A

Sample K-S test on density function
                 LA Gas Non-Freeway - Cycle 2038877989
                                  RPM

                 	% RPM	
Increment of     Cumulative Distr.    Cumulative Distr.
  % RPM          Function (Input)     Function (Cycle)    K-S Difference

   -20                   0                   00
   -14                 .001                  0                   0
   - 8                 .003                .003                  0
   - 2                 .317                .309                .008
     4                 .368                .346                .022
    10                 .424                .388                .036
    16                 .478                .439                .039*
    22                 .540                .504                .036
    28                 .606                .605                .001
    34                 .672                .667                .005
    40                 .733                .729                .004
    46                 .788                .802               -.014
    52                 .834                .867               -.033
    58                 .872                .875               -.003
    64                 .903                .906               -.003
    70                 .930                .931               -.001
    76                 .951                .948               -.003
    82                 .968                .954                .014
    88                 .982                .971                .011
    94                 .990                .985                .005
   100                 .944                .988                .006
   106                 .995                .988                .007
   112                 .996                .988                .008
   118                 .996                .988                .008
   124                 .996                .988                .008

The * indicates the maximum difference incurred in the test — .039.
The sample size (number of records) for this cycle is 356;  so, by Table
2, the critical difference for a significance level of .20  is .057.
Thus the cycle passes this RPM test at the high .20 level.

-------
             -31-
       APPENDIX  B






Second-by-Second Listings




   of Selected Cycles

-------
00?-718
  0.
  1.
  2.
  3.
  4.
  5.
  6.
  7.
  8.
  9.
 10.
 11.
 12.
 13.
 14.
 15.
 16.
 17.
 1Q.
 19.
 20.
 21.
 22.
 21.
 24.
 25.
 26.
 27.
 20.
 29.
 30.
 11.
 32.
 33.
 34.
 35.
 36.
 37.

 I'll
 40.

.I?!
 13.
 10.
 15.
 46.
 47.
 41.
A%t\
;'o.o
0.0
0.0
0-0
0.0
o.'o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.15
2.00
0.22
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
c.o
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.33
16.22
24.00
21.00
1'I.Ofi
11.00
17.17
9.04
1.09
C.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

°/o
• PWJER.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.17
10.00
10.00
10.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 :
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o.o • .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
n.07
10.00
17.22
20.00
20.17
31.9-1
jfi.in
24. 91
13.31
10.00
MOTCEINS
HOTORT1IG
NOTORIHG
MOTORING
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
• '
$£ov
50.
51.
52.
S3.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64..
65.
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
70.
79.
80.
81.
82.
fl3.
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
89.
90. .
91.
92.
93.
91.
95.
96.
97.
98.
99.

D PPM
0.0
0.0
0.37
2.60
6.00
11.91
15.63
11.26
46.26
44.56
36.00
27.51
23.52
24.00
26.29
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.18
10.00
40.67
41.02
40.00
41.61
12.00
16.00
49.
160.
161.
162.
163.
164.
165.
166.
167.
168.
169.
. 170.
171.
172.
173.
174.
175.
176.
177.
178.
179.
130.
181.
182.
103.
184.
185.
106.
187.
180.
189.
190.
191.
192.
193.
194.
195.
196.
197.
198.
199.

) 0VK
. 0.0
0.0
0.0 .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
. 0.0
0.26
. 16.60
45.32
43.00
40.69
35.12
28.18
28.26
30.00
30.00
.10.00
34.54
, 36.00
36.43
43.84
50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00
17.97
.15.30
30.68
27.02
26.00
26.00
20.24
14.00
13.45
9.40
10.72
15.50
19.62
20.25
25.76
35.02
42.14
44.00
45.70
51.99
50.00
51.29

.. AWL
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.70
31. B3
29.78
10.00
10.00
10.00
19.70
47.45
30.00
30.00
30.00 .
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
24.56
20.00
-999.99
-999.99
-999.99
-999.99
-999.99
-999.99
-999.99
-999.99
-999.99
18.27
52.99
81.81
97.48
100.00 .
100,00
100.00
100.00
94.65
90.00
90.00
60.00
60.00
63.22
c ••• •
                                                                         i
                                                                        OJ
                                                                        ro
                                                                         I

-------
*203 03?

200.
201.
202.
203.
201.
205.
206.
207.
208.
209.
210.
211.
212.
213.
211.
215.
216.
217.
218.
219.
220.
221.
22?.
223. •
221.
225.
226.
227.
229.
229.
230.
231.
232.
233.
23'4.
2)5.
236.
237.
238.
239.
210.
711.
212.
213.
211.
215.
216.
217.
218.
219.
> g^
51.96
56.00
62.35
71.61
76.22
78.00
78.00
55.93
38.52
31.12
36.1 1
38.81
12.71
11.00
19.16
52.00
32.05
25.69
21.00
21.00
20.21
10. 16
8.00
10.20
13.51
18.00
20.28
22.00
23.77
28.08
30.00
32.85
32.86
31.37
36.00
51.77
60.57
61.00
64.91
75.8.3
82.00
85.72
86.17
89.19
90.00
91.12
92.00
93.71
89.29
66.00
trfy
/O
70.00
70.00
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82.14
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102.88
106.00
109.18
111.91
82.00
79.33
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(tomx.
0.0
0.0
0.0
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0.0
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100.00
100.00
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94.64
83.07
88.51
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MOTORING
MOTORING
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sen.
100.
101.
102.
103.
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.
i 116.
i 117.
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i 119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
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136.
137.
138.
139.
140.
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78.35
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81.06
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76.86
74.11
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70.58
79.00
80.29
80.54
78.23
78.45
84.36
72.16
79.10
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74.04
68.02
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49.17
70.00
69.46
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HOTORING
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1.45
17.30
11.13
19.55
24.16
80.00
74.83
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HOTORING
2.38
17.76
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HOTOHING
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61.93
63.00
39.85
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10.40
1.37
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151.
152.
153.
154.
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162.
163.
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166.
167.
168.
169.
170.
171.
172.
173.
174.
175.
176.
177.
178.
179.
180.
181.
182.
183.
184.
185.
186.
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55.94
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88.81
90.00
105.48
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90.87
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63.25
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200.
201.
232.
203.
204.
215.
206.
207.
218.
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211.
212.
213.
214.
215.
216.
217.
218.
219.
270.
221.
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224.
225.
226.
227.
229.
229.
230.
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I
250.
251.
252.
253.
254.
255.
256.
257.
258.
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266.
267.
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r^
0.
1.
2.
3.
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7.
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9.
10.
11.
12.
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14.
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23.
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50.
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22.19
39.62
48.80
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31.34
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100.
101.
102.
101.
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
129.
130.
111.
132.
133.
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141.
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84.52
82.21
79.89
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HOTOBIBS
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6.31
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27.36
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38.44
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36.23
47.86
59.41
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sez
150.
151.
152.
153.
154.
155.
156.
157.
158.
159.
160.
161.
162.
163.
164.
165.
166.
167.
168.
169.
170.
171.
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173.
174.
175.
176.
177.
178.
179.
180.
181.
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184.
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103.94
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104.00
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100.80
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101.40
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78.00
77.45
71.67
67.18
66.50
71.43
74.13
75.56
74.75
77.07
79.38
80.00
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82.33
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42.19
42.33
40.00
38.37
12.83
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7.37
19.74
11.83
26.81
49.96
60.00
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44.83
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0.23
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28.96
80.00
87.48
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92.20
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2.)
>a:
200.
201.
212.
203.
201.
205.
206.
207.
209.
209.
210.
211.
212.
213.
214.
215.
216.
217.
218.
219.
220.
221.
222.
223.
224.
275.
226.
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228.
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r *r
84.00
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81.47
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102.91
104.00
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104.00
106.00
106.00
106.00
104.89
104.00
104.00
104.00
103.63

r **
59.58
76.36
80.00
70.49
90.00
82.66
90.00
90.00
75.24
78.96
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80.00
83.68
79.50
70.00
61.60
50.03
60.00
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69.39
73.73
70.00
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90.00 .
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31.99
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250.
251.
252.
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255.
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262.
263.
264.
265.
266.
267.
268.
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276.
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287.
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100.62
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97.22
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92.98
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90.79
88.08
86.23
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87.14
84.02
82.51
82.00
82.12
83.13
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84.26
86.62
84.31
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79.35
75.36
73.05
70.73
68.42
47.15
35.79
32.95
29.16
16.47
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5.01
10.00
HOTOHING
MOTORING
HOTORING
HOTORIIIG
HOTORING
HOTOBING
5.18
HOTORING
HOTORING
HOTORING
HOTORING
6.35
12.98
10.00
10.00
10.00
10.00
14.89
13.54
42.12
40.40
30.00
32.75
44.32
50.00
50.00
50.00
40.00
35.64
20.00
51.95
66.21
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9.96
1.61
19.56
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3.35
HOTORIHG
8.95
10.00
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257.
25B.
259.
260.
261.
262.
263.
26U.
265.
266.
267.
268.
269.
270.
271.
272.
273.
2714.
275.
276.
277.
278.
279.
280.
281.
212.
2«3.
2PU.
235.
286.
237.
288.
219.
290.
291.
292.
293.
29W.
295.
296.

90.00
80.00
82.00
81.00
81.32
85.26
82.11
83. «8
80.57
82.00
70.59
78.00
81 .67
80.15
82.146
83.22
82.00
72.17
714. 8H
53.87
5U.61
148.66
K6.09
31.67
13.15
21.52
26.00
26.00
214.27
19.614
19.149
23.61
2M.78
14.69
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
- -


80:00
3«.89
MOTOBItG
MOTORING
MOTORING
BOTORING
BOTORIHQ
HOTORING
KOTOSING
HOTORING
nOTORING
NOTOBING
27.69
20.00
14.55
10.00
10.00
10.00
8.26
NOTCHING
HOTORING
HOTORING
HOTORING
HOTORING
10TORING
"4.51
HOTORING
HOTORING
HOTORING
HOTORING
HOTORING
HOTOR1NG
HOTORING
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 .
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0




-------
          -48-
   APPENDIX  C







  Density Plots




       for




Unselected Cycles

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              -81-
         Addendum to
"Selection of Transient  Cycles
    for Heavy-Duty Engines"
         November 1977

-------
                                 -82-
     The preceeding basic report was originally intended to deal with
only the statistical aspects of the transient engine cycles.  No attempt
was made to assess their physical or practical characteristics nor to
justify the selections on the basis of these considerations.  Assuming
a valid data base, there is no reason to question the "drivability" of
any candidate cycles.

     Upon subsequent inspection, however, EPA has found that one category,
N.Y. Gas Freeway, shows an unrealistic amount of high speed operation
at abnormally high speeds (in the chosen cycle, #7920-, this amounted
to some 26 seconds of sustained operation above 100% rated RPM, reaching
a maximum of 150%).  Since the candidate cycles for this category all
matched the input to some extent, it appeared that the data base might
be flawed.  Indeed, when the CAPE-21 data for the New York trucks were
reviewed, one truck was identified as having an inordinate amount
of operation above 100% rated RPM, nearly 40% of its total operation.  This
single truck (number 09) also comprised a substantial portion (12.3%) of
the NY gasoline freeway data.  Something more than 83% of the total
operation above 100% rated RPM in this category was contributed by this
truck.  Also, this truck accounted for nearly 100% of the operation above
116% rated RPM.

     The offending truck appears to have exhibited the excessive speeds
because of an error in the RPM normalization process.  The absolute RPM
values originally recorded may have easily been reasonable; but the
large number of normalized values (see footnote p. 7 of the report) in
excess of 100% indicate that the rated RPM was misidentified for this
particular truck.  In any case, the RPM data for the truck is tainted
and its presence in the input can be expected to have had some undesirable
effects.

     As a remedy to the situation, EPA has decided to delete from cycle
7920-the portion which exceeds a percent RPM value of 100, i.e., the
cycle will merely be shortened by the 26 seconds of "overspeed" opera-
tion (see attachment).  The effects which this action will necessarily
have on the cycle are addressed below.

     Expressed concisely, the presence of data from truck 09 compromises
the representativeness of any cycle generated from the NY Gas Freeway data
base.  On the other hand, it cannot be assumed that the correlation to
the road data has been lost.  What is known is that in the higher speed
range (over 116% RPM), all of the operation is due to Truck 09, and
nothing is compromised by taking this operation out.  Also along these
lines, the corresponding power values in the deleted segment were derived
as well from the Truck 09 data (by virtue of the cycle generation procedure)

     However, Truck 09 also understandably exhibited operation in the
sub-100% RPM range, and the percent RPM values here too will be unrea-
sonably high.  This effect is of somewhat less magnitude than that in
the high ranges (where Truck 09 is 100% of the data), but to what extent
the 8% of the data which Truck 09 represents in the lower ranges affects

-------
                                 -83-
this cycle in unclear.  Also, because of the removal of power as well as
RPM values from the cycle, the power density function will be somewhat
altered (although this change is not radical).

     Finally, EPA has done no statistical testing of the quality of the
modified cycle; actually, such a check is meaningless because the input
with which the cycle would be compared is itself no longer valid.  The
matrix from which the cycles were generated will change if Truck 09 is
deleted, but the complexity of the matrix would make any determination
of how it is altered an enormous task of questionable value.
                                                     s
     The revised cycle does compromise the representativeness of this
category's road data; despite this, it is felt that at the very least the
cycle is certainly more representative than the original version.  The
range of speed is more reasonable, and when its limitations are recog-
nized, the cycle is an adequate substitute.

     Truck 09 also had some non-freeway operation comprising 6.9% of the
total NY Gas Non-Freeway data.  Hence, the quality of the cycle chosen
for this category, #841-, is diminished somewhat.  It is felt, however,
that the contribution of truck 09 to the non-freeway data is not sufficient
to require modification or replacement of cycle 841-, and it remains as
it appears in the main report.

-------
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