IMS-001/FE-l Effects of Inspection and Maintenance Programs on Fuel Economy March 1979 Inspection and Maintenance Staff Emission Control Technology Division Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control Office of Air, Noise, and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ------- Introduction The primary goal of inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs is to improve air quality by reducing emissions from motor vehicles. Many studies have indicated that I/M programs will achieve this goal. In addition several studies have indicated that fuel economy improvement can be expected to occur as a result of maintenance performed on vehicles failing an I/M test. Most studies which have been performed have looked at pre-1975 model year vehicles and have had expert mechanics performing the maintenance work. It is the intention of the present report to consider both the results from past studies and the results from more recent studies in order to provide EPA's best estimates of fuel economy benefit which can be attributed to I/M maintenance. The results of this study are discussed in the body of the report by model year groups, which reflect the level of emission control technology: pre-1975, 1975-80, and 1981+. Attachment 1 provides a short tabular summary of studies which relate to I/M's effect on fuel economy. Attachment 2 provides a bibliography which gives references for most of the studies summarized in Attachment 1 and alluded to in the body of the report. The following section summarizes EPA's best estimates of I/M's effect on. fuel economy. Summary On the basis of past studies on pre-1975 model year cars, EPA has in- dicated that the fuel economy of cars failing an I/M test will likely improve following maintenance. Recently, with the availability of data from Oregon's I/M program and further data and information on catalyst and microprocessor controlled systems, it has become clear that I/M's effect on fuel economy is not as straightforward as was previously thought. All available data on the question of I/M's effect on fuel economy have therefore been studied in order to better quantify what this effect will be. Many past I/M studies have indicated a fuel economy benefit due to such maintenance, and more recent EPA studies have also indicated that a fuel economy benefit is obtained following restorative maintenance performed to manufacturers' specifications by skilled mechanics. However, data from the Portland Study, covering 1972-77 model year cars, show no net gain in fleet average fuel economy due to maintenance performed in response to failing an idle test in Oregon's I/M program. The apparent contradiction between the field data from Portland and these other studies is explainable. The past I/M studies have in most cases included maintenance which was either performed by skilled mechanics or which was (by the study's definition) more extensive than the typical I/M tune-up performed in response to an I/M program. In addition, very few ------- -2- mechanics in the Portland area have been specifically trained in emis- sion-oriented maintenance. This is in contrast to the emission-oriented maintenance to manufacturers' specifications which has been performed in EPA's studies of the effects of restorative maintenance. EPA concludes that the failure to observe a net gain in fuel economy in Portland only implies that any basic, idle test I/M program which is unsupported by an emission-oriented mechanic training program should also be expected to show no net gain in fuel economy. EPA also concludes on the basis of the other studies that a net fuel economy gain due to I/M maintenance is possible for pre-1980 model year cars, if the I/M program is supported by mechanic training. For 1980 model year cars technology will change somewhat from that currently used outside of California. Data on 1975-77 model year California cars have been used to estimate the effect of I/M on 1980 model year Federal cars. (The technologies are expected to be very similar, as are the emission standards.) Even with skilled mechanics performing repairs to manufacturer's specification, no significant fuel economy improvement is seen. This is a somewhat unexpected result which requires further investigation when data on 1980 model year Federal cars are available. For 1981 and later models, fuel economy improvements due to emission- related maintenance are expected. These improvements are expected to be more substantial than the improvements possible for pre-1980 model year cars, primarily because engine control system failures will often cause the air/fuel mixture to enrichen over all modes of. vehicle operation, not just during idle operation, and thus degrade both fuel economy and emissions. The table below provides EPA's best estimates of fuel economy improvement of failed cars following maintenance. Average Fuel Economy Improvements for Failed Vehicles due to I/M .. , , v Without Emission-Oriented With Emission-Oriented Model Year ,, , . _ . . _, , . _ . . Mechanic Training Mechanic Training pre-1975 0% 3-4% 1975-1979 0% 3-4% 1980 0% ? 1981+ ? 9-30% Discussion; Pre-1975 Model Year Cars By the early 1980s when most I/M programs will be operational, pre-1975 models will account for less than 20% of the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for passenger cars and by 1987 this will be reduced to ------- -3- 3%. Therefore, from the standpoint of I/M, pre-1975 models are rela- tively less important than 1975 and later models in terms of both emission reductions achievable and fuel economy effects. All past studies which have evaluated fuel economy benefit due to I/M for pre-75 models have reported improvements in fuel economy resulting from maintenance. Most of these studies have measured fuel economy during city, as opposed to highway, driving cycles. The city cycle includes more idle operation than the city/highway combination used by EPA to measure typical passenger car fuel economy. In most of these studies, mechanics performing the maintenance had a higher than average level of expertise. As Attachment 1 shows, reported fuel economy im- provements from past studies (studies 6-13) have ranged from 2% to 14%. For past studies which best typify anticipated I/M situations (studies 6, 8, and 10), the range in fuel economy improvements is 2% to 4% for pre-1975 models. In two of these three studies city driving cycles were used to measure fuel economy. In all three studies the maintenance performed'on failed cars was either more extensive than would usually be necessary in a real I/M program or was performed by trained mechanics. EPA's Portland Study, which is now in progress, provides before and after maintenance fuel economy data from a real I/M program.— Analysis of the data on the 1972-74 model year failed cars tested in this program indicates that although maintenance performed on failed vehicles sig- nificantly improves fuel economy during city driving,— the improvement is relatively small. There is no statistically significant effect during a typical city/highway combination of driving. City/highway combined fuel economy changes from 16.8 miles per gallon (MPG) initially to 16.9 MPG on failed cars after maintenance. Although there is no net fuel economy gain or loss for all 1972-74 model year cars in the Portland Study taken together, the worst idle HC and CO emitters in the sample, as identified by Oregon's state inspection test, obtained a substantial fuel economy benefit after maintenance. These 11 cars' fuel economy went from 16.9 MPG before maintenance to 17.9 MPG after maintenance, an improvement of 6%. The results for 1972-74 models are summarized in Table 1. To summarize verbally, for a typical combination of city/highway driving, no net gain or loss in fuel economy for pre-1975 models is observed in Portland. However, on especially high idle emitters the possibility of improved fuel economy after maintenance for failed cars is increased. Also, based on past studies which were designed to evaluate I/M's effect on fuel economy (notably studies 6, 8, and 10 in Attachment 1), it appears that a fuel economy benefit of approximately 3% may occur if an emission- oriented mechanic training program is in place. Very little emission- oriented training of practicing mechanics has occurred in the Portland area to date. — Vehicles are passed or failed according to Oregon's state inspection test (basically an idle test) and failed vehicles are maintained by practicing mechanics in the Portland area. 21 ~~In the statistical sense at the 0.05 level of significance. ------- Table 1 Fuel Kcmiomy Before and After Maintenance— 1972-74 Miidel Vear 1'alled Vehicles In the IWClaud Study Al 1 1972-74 Models 1972 Models 1973 Models 1974 Model H Highest Idle IIC Kml t ters Ulgliuuli Idle CO limlttera N 93 38 26 29 20 20 Before Maintenance 14.48 13.72 13.55 16.73 13.6.3 15.50 After Ma Intenance 14.69 13.74 14.01 19.96 13.89 15.56 Percent Change h I.*-?' o.i t 3.4- 1.9 ].92/ 0.4- llefore la 1 ntenance 20.89 19.62 20.06 23.77 19.71 22.90 After Maintenance 20.75 19.37 20.04 23.73 19.74 23.18 Percent Change -0.7 -1.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 1 .2 Before Ma Intenance 16.80 15.87 15.87 19.30 15.82 18.14 After Maintenance 16.91 15.81 16.21 19.46 16.04 19.00 Percent Change 0.6 0.4 , 2.1-' 0.8 A . 7 ~" t Idle IIC aml_ CO Km! Itura 14.52 1 5 . 69 H. 1 21.26 21. 7B 2.4 16.93 17.95 6.0 Kuel economy Is measured in mi Jus per gallon. - This change was st.ii:Iailcal.ly significant at the 0.05 level througli the application of a pai red t~tet t. firmips with lesa than 20 vehicles were not iiva luat'ed tor st.it 1st loal significance due to sma 11 sample s lac. ------- -5- 1975-80 Model Year Cars In the early 1980s when most I/M programs will be operational, 1975-80 model year cars will account for 65% of the VMT for passenger cars, and by 1987 will still account for 27%. Therefore the effect of I/M on these vehicles from the standpoint of fuel economy is an important consideration. I/M's effect on fuel economy for 1975-80 model year failed vehicles is estimated from studies of 1975-77 model year cars' data. All studies are relatively recent. Of the available studies, the study which best typifies anticipated I/M situations is EPA's Portland Study. In the Portland Study the change in fuel economy for failed vehicles after maintenance is small and is statistically insignificant. Before and after maintenance combined city/highway fuel economies were 17.9 miles per gallon and 17.8 miles per gallon, respectively. Although 1975-77 model year failed vehicles saw virtually no fuel economy change as a group, the 1977 model year failed vehicles on the average received a statistically significant fuel economy penalty of 3-4% following maintenance. The design of 1977 model year vehicles is very similar to the design of 1975-76 models, except that the control of oxides of nitrogen is more stringent. Thus, there is no obvious reason to expect I/M's effect on fuel economy to be different for the 1977 models. A detailed review of the emissions data, diagnostics, and maintenance reported for these vehicles is now underway and indicates that improper adjustment of ignition timing and improper operation of vacuum advance units in their before maintenance condition may explain some fuel economy penalties following maintenance. As was the case for the 1972-74 models, it was anticipated that the worst idle emitters among the 1975-1977 models might see fuel economy improvements following maintenance. Therefore, the highest idle emitters were identified so that fuel economy effects for this sample could be analyzed. The results of this analysis indicated that those vehicles with the highest idle HC and CO levels received a fuel economy penalty. From a theoretical standpoint, there is no good explanation for this. The Portland Study results discussed above for 1975-77 models are summarized in Table 2. Results from other studies are described in the following paragraphs. In addition to the data from the Portland Study, EPA has analyzed data from its Restorative Maintenance (RM) Programs in an I/M-oriented fashion. The vehicles were screened for passage or failure of the idle test using idle HC and CO standards of 225 ppm and 1.0%, respectively, the standards applied to the majority of 1975 and later model year cars in Oregon's I/M program. FTP emission-oriented maintenance (as opposed to idle emission-oriented maintenance) was performed to manufacturers' specifications ------- Table 2 Fuel Kconomy Uefore and After Maintenance— 1075-77 Model Year Failed Vehicles In the 1'ortland Study All 1975-77 Models 1975 Models 1976 Models 1977 Models Highest Idle HC I'lmltters Highest Idle CO Kinltcers Highest Idle HC and CO Emitters N 111) 30 3d JH 22 22 12 Hef M.I 1 ill 15 14 16 15 14 14 15 ore enanco .55 .96 .21 .53 .92 .85 .40 After Maintenance 15.55 15. 20 16.56 15.01 14.15 1 4 . 98 15.09 Percent Change 0.0 1 . 6 -- 2 2 - -3.3 -5.2 0.9 -2.0 Before Mai ntenance 2 1 . 90 21.27 22.70 21.78 20.88 20.81 21.54 After Ma Intenance 21.51 21.36 22.46 20.80 19.70 20.23 20.36 Percent Change -1.8 0.4 -1.1 -4.5 - -5.7^ -2.8 -5.5 Before Ma InCenance 17.88 17.26 18.61 17.83 17.12 17.05 17.67 After Ma 1 ntenance 17.76 17.47 18.78 17.16 16.20 16.96 17.08 Percent Change -0.7 1.2 '•'/ 0.9 , -3.7^ -5.4 -0.5 -3.3 [•'ML:! tii:i»nomy la measured In nil lea per gallon. ~ This cluuii'e was slat Utiiui 11 y yigul ficaiU. at ilie O.U3 level through Lhe u|i|)l leiit ion of a pa.tcud L-I ear. Croups with less than 20 vehicles wei'u not eva I uut ed t'or si.at 1 si' K:a I a I^nl f icance tine tu sma I 1. sample si/,e . ------- -7- in progressive steps by skilled mechanics. For the I/M analysis, the "after maintenance" fuel economy was taken at the maintenance step where the idle standards would be met regardless of whether further maintenance was actually performed .in the RM sequence. The observed fuel economy improvement was significant in the statistical sense. Fuel economy improved from 15.6 MPG to 16.2 MPG, or approximately 4%. These data, which are summarized in Tables 3 and 4, suggest that up to a 4% im- provement in fuel economy is possible with an emission-oriented mechanic training program in place. The California Air Resources Board (GARB) tested 150 1975-77 model year cars in its Light Duty Vehicle Surveillance Testing Program (LDVSP-II). Because of more stringent emission standards for California vehicles, these vehicles also closely represent non-California cars which will be sold in the 49 states in model year 1980. Of the vehicles tested by GARB, 31 failed the proposed California idle test standards of 50 ppm HC and 0.5% CO. Following an I/M-type repair to manufacturer's specifications by skilled GARB mechanics, fuel economy improved 1.8%, but this improvement was not significant in the statistical sense. Applying the 0.5% CO and 50 ppm HC idle test standards to the sample of 100 1975-76 model year California cars tested in EPA's Restorative Maintenance Program in San Francisco, 14 vehicles were failed initially and met the standards following maintenance. An average combined city/highway fuel 'economy of 13.22 MPG before maintenance and 13.20 MPG after maintenance was observed on these vehicles. This result corroborates the GARB result of no fuel economy improvement for 1980 model year Federal cars. Since emission control technology is not expected to change dramatically in 1980, this result is somewhat puzzling and requires further investigation once 1980 model year Federal car data become available. ------- Urban 13.39 14.10 5.3^ Highway 19.40 19.69 1>5!/ Combined 15.56 16.17 3.9^ -8- Table 3 Fuel Economy Before and After Maintenance 1975-76'Model Year Federal Failed Vehicles Tasted in EPA's Restorative Maintenance Program— (97 Cars) Before Maintenance After Maintenance Percent Change — Harmonic means are used to calculate mean fuel economy, which is presented in miles per gallon. 21 — This change was statistically significant at the 0.05 level through the application of a paired t-test. Groups with less than 20 vehicles were not evaluated for statistical significance due to small sample size. Table 4 Fuel Economy Before and After Maintenance Eleven 1977 Model Year Failed Vehicles Tested in EPA's Restorative Maintenance Program- Before Maintenance After Maintenance Percent Change — Harmonic means are used to calculate mean fuel economy, which is presented in miles per gallon. 21 — This change was statistically significant at the 0.05 level through the application of a paired t-test. Groups with less than 20 vehicles were not evaluated for statistical significance due to small sample size. Urban 13.71 14.39 5.0^ Highway 18.58 19.05 2.5 Combined 15.54 16.17 4.1-^' ------- -9- It appears that 1975-80 model year cars' fuel economy, on the average, is unaffected by I/M if minimal maintenance is performed strictly in response to an idle test failure. However, EPA concludes on the basis of RM data that a strong emission-oriented mechanic training program could result in fuel economy improvements for 1975-79 model year failed vehicles, estimated at up to 4%. EPA refrains from making a conclusion with respect to 1980 models until data on 1980 model year Federal cars become available. Post-1980 Model Year Cars The majority of I/M failures of current technology (1975-80) vehicles results from the improper adjustment of the carburetor idle air-fuel mixture. The proper adjustment reduces the fuel used at idle, however idle fuel usage is only a small portion of the fuel used during typical vehicle operation. Thus, maintenance specific to the idle system usually results in a small improvement to fuel economy in everyday driving. This is reflected in the fuel economy changes presented in the sections above on pre-1981 model year cars in the Portland Study. Beginning in 1981 there will be two types of changes in emission control systems. Some smaller cars will retain essentially their current systems, but their manufacturers will limit the adjustable range of the idle air/fuel mixture. EPA hopes this will reduce the frequency of improper carburetor adjustments among these vehicles. If it does, idle mixture maintenance in I/M programs and the small improvement it gives in fuel economy will also be less frequent for these cars. The second type of change will affect the remaining smaller cars and virtually all larger cars (excepting those which convert to Diesel engines). These cars will also have reduced adjustability, but more importantly they will have new emission control systems. In addition, the new emission control systems will commonly incorporate three-way catalysts with feedback carburetion which will, through the input from an oxygen sensor in the exhaust, select the proper air-fuel mixture for all operating conditions, including idle. Failure of the oxygen sensor, the mini-computer, and many of its other input signals, will likely cause the carburetor to supply much more fuel than is required for best fuel economy and emissions at operating conditions such as acceleration and cruise, as well as at idle. Maintenance performed on these systems can thus be expected to increase fuel economy much more than with current technology cars. EPA has tested several vehicles which are equipped with feedback carburetion systems. These data .are summarized in Table 5. It is anticipated that these vehicles will be representative of 1981 and later production Federal vehicles (1980 and later in California). The results, although based on only a few vehicles, indicate about a 9 to 30 percent potential improvement in fuel economy when repairs to the engine control system are made. The fleetwide fuel savings cannot be estimated until exper- ience with the frequency of failures and improper maintenance is obtained. ------- Table 5 Repaired Vehicle Fuel Economy Benefit 1, Expected for 1981 and Later Model Year Vehicles — Fuel Economy Fuel Economy „, Vehicle Description before Maintenance after Maintenance— Percent Change 1 1978 Pontiac Sunbird 21.6 MPG -( 25.4 MPG 17.6% 2 1978 Ford Pinto 21.9 MPG -1 24.6 MPG 12.3% 3 1978 Pontiac Sunbird 19.9 MPG - 23.6 MPG 18.6% 4 1978 Pontiac Sunbird 18.9 MPG - 20.6 MPG 9.0% 5 1978 Ford Pinto 21.3 MPG-'' 24.2 MPG 13.6% 6 1979 Mercury Marquis 13.4 MPG - 17.4 MPG 29.9% 7 1981 GM prototype -/ 16.2 MPG-'' 18.6 MPG 14.8% S i — Each vehicle was tested first in tuned-up condition, and then with the failure modes noted below. Testing was performed by EPA, except as noted. 2/ — In tuned-up condition except with oxygen sensor disconnected; combined city/highway fuel economy. The oxygen sensor is a maintainable item, requiring periodic replacement. -r In tuned-up condition; combined city/highway fuel economy. 4/ — In the "before maintenance" test, the vehicle was in a tunedup condition except that the "limited operating strategy," which can occur following failure of the on-board computer, was in effect. — Testing was performed by GM. Data are preliminary. — In the "before maintenance" test, the vehicle was in a tuned-up condition except that the carburetor was operating as rich as possible. This mode closely approximates that which would be caused by a disconnected oxygen sensor. ------- Attachment 1 Study Summary of Studies on Fuel Economy^ _Be_nefJ t__p_ue to_ Inspection and Maintenance . Screening Test Used Level of Mechanic Relevance to Sample L' to Determine Failure Skll 1/Tralnlng !' t/M .V I. EPA's rortlnml Study 2. l/M-Orlcntcd Analysis of EPA's RM 76 Program 3. 1/M-Orlented Analysis of El'A's RM77 Program It. EPA's Analysis of Data from CARB's I.DVSP-II 5. El'A's Analysis of Data on 3-Way Catalyst Equipped Vehicles 6. F.PA's Analysis of Data from CARD'S Riverside Program 7. NIITSA 322-Car Study 8. NIITSA 57-Car Study 9. Champion Spark Plug Co. Studies °:i 1972-74 Models I1C 1975-77 Models 97 1975-76 Models II Very Low Mileage '977 Models 31 1975-77 Models Oregon Stole Inspection Trst (30% failure rate) (Idle Test + Brief I'hy.Insp) Idle Test (30% failure rate) Idle Test(25Z failure rate) Idle Tc!ii:(20Z failure rate) 7 Feedback Carburetlon Visual Inspection of Oxygen Vehicles Sensor or Spark Timing 349 1955-74 Models 322 1968-73 Models 57 1969-72 Models Idle Test (3">% failure rnte) Loaded nr Idle Test Loaded Test 310 pre-68 to 1975 Models Extensive Diagnostic Inspection High (mostly pre-75s) 10. CARH Degradation Study 59 1968-74 Models Idle Test C10* failure rate.) mph 11- Private Vehicle Fleet l/M 12. EPA's l/M Information Document(EPA-400/2-78- 001 ) 13. J. Panzer's Model of Fuel Economy Benefit U.S. Postal Service, Emission Tests Baltimore Cty.Trans., & A.T.I. T. fleets Mathem.-itlc.il Model Mathematical Model Idle Tent (varying failure rate) Repaired Vehicles Average Fuel Economy Benefit ''' Average High High High High Average-High Average II 1 gh High High High High High Medium High High Low Low Low Low Low Low 1972-74: 0.67 5/ !975-77:-0.7Z 5/ 1.9Z ?-f 4.02 I/ 5/ 1 . HZ ~ 9Z-10Z--' Pre-71: 3. 1.Z ^J 1971-74: 2.0% />/ 4.7" V 3.5Z \> 1.1. 4Z 5/ 3.,, ?/ 4Z - lOZ - Low 4Z - IOZ .1.1 / I/ All. vehicles described here have undergone m.-t I nt enancc dtic in l:i(lnre <>f srrecnlui*. test. I/ "Average" means that maintenance was performed by mechanics who have not been specially trained In <_n. Unlnn-or I IMIU.M) ma I ill eu.ince tecluil<|ui'.s. "HJgli" means that nvilntcn-ince was performed, usually to maiinfaoturer's specifications, by skilled mechanics or t cc.liiiLcl.tnfl. 3/ Relevance to l/M Is determined on the basis of how well the study's design represents anticipated l/M situations, and also on how well the technology, of fleet of vehicles studied represents the early I980's l/M target populations. 4/ As measured Immediately after ma l.ntcnance ; except as noted. V EPA city/highway combined fuel economy (55Z city driving, 45Z highway driving). bl As measured over the 75 FTP (EPA's city driving cycle). 7/ As reported by vehicle owners. |/ After full tune-up to manufacturer's specification, plus mandatory replacement: of spark plugs. Fuel economy Is measured over a transient: cycle representative of the Toledo metropolitan area's driving patterns. 9/ As measured over the 72 FTP (bag 1 and 2 of the 75 FTP) This assumes that all vehicle stail-ups are from a cold engine condition TO/ No standard test procedure was used to determine fuel economy benefit; not necessarily as measured Immediately after maintenance. ll/ Estimated annual fuel economy benefit. ------- Attachment 2 Bibliography of Studies Related to the Effects of Inspection and Maintenance Programs on Fuel Economy Portland Study Interim Analysis; Observations on Six Months of Vehicle Operation; I/M Staff, Emission Control Technology Division, Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control, U.S. EPA; January 1979. An Evaluation of Restorative Maintenance on Exhaust Emissions from In-Use Automobiles; White, J.T.; SAE Paper 780082; March 1978. Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance - The California Program; Rubenstein, G., Ingels, R., Weis, R., Wong, A.; California Air Resources Board; SAE Paper 760557; June 7-10, 1976. Motor Vehicle Diagnostic Inspection Demonstration Program - Summary Report; Innes, J. and Eder, L.; NHTSA Technical Report, DOT HS-802 760; October 1977. Fuel Economy Improvements through Diagnostic Inspection; Bayler, T. and Eder, L.; NHTSA Technical Report DOT HS-802 284; March 1977. How Passenger Car Maintenance Affects Fuel Economy and Emissions: A Nationwide Survey; Walker, D.L., Boord, J.O., Pigott, J.S., and Sutton, E.R.; Champion Spark Plug Company; SAE Paper 780032; February 27-March 3, 1978. Car Maintenance Around the World; Champion Spark Plug Company; August 1978. Final Report - Degradation Effects on Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission; Olson Laboratories, Inc., Anaheim, California; March 1976. Information Document on Automobile Emission Inspection and Maintenance Programs; Kincannon, B. and Castaline, A., pp. 15-17; EPA-400/2-78-001, February 1978. Fuel Economy Improvements through Emissions Inspection/Maintenance; Panzer, J., Exxon Research and Engineering Company; SAE Paper 760003; February 23-27, 1976. ------- |