EPA-AA-IMS/81-1
                          Recommendations  Regarding  the
                 Selection of  Idle Emission  Inspection Cutpoints
                     for Inspection and Maintenance  Programs
                                       by
                                Douglas Noddings
                          Inspection/Maintenance Staff
                                  January,  1981
                                     Notice

Technical Reports  do not  necessarily  represent final  EPA decisions or  posi-
tions.  They are  intended  to present technical  analysis  of issues  using  data
which are currently  available.   The  purpose in the release  of  such  reports  is
to facilitate  the  exchange of technical information  and  to inform  the  public
of technical developments  which may form  the  basis for a  final EPA decision,
position or regulatory action.
                      Emission Control Technology Division
                  Office  of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control
                       Office  of Air, Noise, and Radiation
                      U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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Preface

This  report,  which  was developed  as part  of EPA's  Model Program  Guidance,
addresses idle  HC and  CO  cutpoints and  their resulting failure  rates  in  an
Inspection/Maintenance   (I/M)   program.    Recommended   cutpoints   have   been
developed for various desired  failure  rates  both at the  beginning of I/M  and
after a  year  of the program.   The  analysis  applies to I/M programs  beginning
either 1/1/82 or 1/1/83.

The  author  acknowledges David  Hughes of  the  EPA  Inspection  and  Maintenance
Staff, who contributed the  section on 1981 and  later vehicles.

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I.  Background

Careful  attention  should  be  given  when  selecting   idle  emission  standards
(outpoints) as this choice will effect several factors of an  I/M program.   The
cutpoints used will determine how many  vehicles  fail the emission  test  which
in turn will determine  the  cost  or inconvenience to consumers  for maintenance
as well as  the  additional  capacity needed to reinspect  those failed vehicles.
With stricter cutpoints, more vehicles will be maintained and the repairs made
will  result  in  higher emission  reduction  benefits.   There  is  also  some
potential  for cutpoints  to  influence  the  balance  between  hydrocarbon  and
carbon monoxide  reductions.   Not all  I/M  programs  will be in  areas requiring
reductions  of  both  Ozone   and  CO.   Some  programs  may  consider   selecting
cutpoints which  would achieve acceptable emission reduction  benefits for only
one of  these pollutants by  failing  most  or  all vehicles  for  that  pollutant
(e.g.  HC  for ozone)  while  keeping  the  total  number  of failed  vehicles con-
stant.  For all of  these reasons, simply adopting another area's cutpoints  may
not be in the best  interest  of the I/M program  if more effective cutpoints  can
be found to fulfill the program's emission reduction needs.

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II. Discussion

A.  Policy Considerations and Recommendations In Selecting Outpoints

Certain policy  decisions must  first  be made  by each  I/M program before  the
technical problem of  cutpoint  selection can be  dealt with.   It must  be deter-
mined  which groups  of vehicles  will  be  classified  into  the  same  cutpoint
categories  subject to  identical inspection  standards.   The desired fraction of
the vehicles to be failed both overall  and within each  cutpoint category is of
principal importance.   Finally,  it must  be decided  what proportion  of  these
failed  vehicles are  failed for  HC  emissions and/or  CO  emissions.   An  I/M
program could  fail  all vehicles only for HC or only for  CO  or distribute  the
failures in several  ways among both  emissions with  the same overall failure
rate.

These  policy decisions  will affect  the emission  reduction benefits  derived
from I/M.   Clearly there  is a  direct  relationship between the overall failure
rate and the emissions  reduction benefits which will  be achieved.   For a given
failure rate these  benefits will vary  among different emission control  tech-
nologies represented  by different cutpoint  categories.  Whether  vehicles  are
failed  for  HC  or  CO matters  because  different  emission problems  will  be
identified  and  emission  repairs  will  be  performed so  that vehicles will  be
able to pass different cutpoints.

Cutpoint categories may be  defined in terms  of a single vehicle characteristic
or in  terms of  a unique combination of several characteristics.   Characteris-
tics  considered in  different  I/M  programs now in  operation,  include  model
year,  model year groups  based  on  similarities  in  technology, number  of
cylinders, presence of  an air pump or catalyst, and  the make and model of each
vehicle.

The  cutpoint  categories which  this  report  suggests are  defined  in  terms  of
model year groups based on  similarities in the federal  emission standards they
were  designed  to meet  and/or  emission  control  technologies.  These  suggested
cutpoint categories are pre-1968,  1968-1971,  1972-1974,  1975-1979,  1980,  and
post-1980.   It  is believed that  a more complex structure of cutpoint  cate-
gories does not warrant the necessary additional administrative burden.   Also,
model  year  failure  rates  within  these  model  year  cutpoint  categories  (as
illustrated in  Table  3 and 4,  below) do not  vary much indicating that  finer
model  year  divisions  are  not  necessary .JL/   With  these  model   year  group
cutpoint categories, an I/M program can be  assured  that virtually all  failed
vehicles will exceed federal emission  standards and will benefit from  repair.
I/ MOBILE2  assumes equal failure rates  for  each model year.  Equal  cutpoints
within technology groups with equal failure rates among groups is close  enough
to the  standard assumption that MOBILE2 may  be used.  Widely varying  failure
rates among model year groups require special  analysis.

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Among pre-1981 model year  groups,  it is  suggested  that outpoints be  selected
which  will  result  in  a   failure  rate  of  35%  within  each group.   This  is
considered the most  effective failure rate for  I/M within  reasonable  limits.
This  report  presents  cutpoints  for  a  35%  failure rate  and  also  for  other
reasonable 1/M failure  rates.

In the selection of the ratio of HC  to CO I/M failures,  careful attention must
be paid to several factors.  As mentioned above,  there are many  pairs  of  HC/CO
cutpoints which will  result in the  same total failure rate within a  cutpoint
category.

There are different  approaches  to selecting  the  HC/CO ratio of  I/M  failures.
If  a  specific  pair  of  HC/CO  cutpoints  are  selected  directly,   this   will
determine the HC/CO ratio  of  failures for a given vehicle population  and also
the  total failure  rate.   If  these results are  judged to be  acceptable,  the
cutpoint selection process is completed.  If  not,  further  trial-and-error  is
needed.  There are also two other approaches  which  are more systematic.   One
is to decide  first what  the total failure rate,  the HC-only failure rate,  and
the CO failure rate will be (the total failure rate  is the  sum of the  HC-only
and CO failure rates);  once this  decision is made, actual cutpoints that will
result in this total failure rate  and  ratio  of HC/CO  failures  can systematic-
ally be  selected  for any  given  sample of vehicles'  idle scores.  A  computer
program such as the one contained  in the Appendix of  this  report can be used
for  this  final  step.   The other  systematic  approach  to  selecting  the  HC/CO
ratio of failures  is  to specify  first  an HC/CO  cutpoint relationship,  e.g.,
"HC cutpoint = CO cutpoint x (100  ppm/1%)", and  then specify the desired  total
failure  rate.   Once  these  decisions are. made,  the  unique  pair  of  HC/CO
cutpoints which  satisfy  the  relationship  and  result  in   the  desired  total
failure rate can be found systematically, again using  a computer  program.  EPA
prefers this last approach  to  selecting  the  HC/CO distribution;  the remainder
of this report uses  it.

In selecting  a  specific  recommended  cutpoint  locus  (HC/CO  pairs) for each  of
the model year  groups  listed  earlier  from  the great  number of  alternatives,
several factors were considered.   Changes in  the  percentage of excess FTP  HC
and CO emissions identified in failed  vehicles resulting from moderate shifts
in HC/CO locus  emphasis  are negligible.   Even shifts  to the extreme  cases  of
failing vehicles only for HC or only  for  CO  have little impact as illustrated
in  Figure  1.    Repair  effectiveness,   however,   also  determines   emission
reduction,  so excess FTP emissions identified  is  only  a partial  indication  of
the  relative  emission  reductions  which  would  be observed when  using   such
extreme  HC/CO cutpoint emphasis.   EPA  has  found that  cutpoint  sets  which
emphasize HC  are  accompanied  by  high rates  of  errors  of   commission  (failed
vehicles which meet  federal emission  standards).   Due to  the  resulting  high
rate of errors of commission and the uncertain though  apparently  small  benefit
of extreme HC cutpoint  emphasis,  it is suggested  that  I/M programs avoid  using
extreme HC  emphasis  cutpoint  loci.   Also because  of  uncertain benefits  I/M
programs which  need  HC reduction  benefits should  avoid extreme  CO  emphasis
loci.

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                         Figure 1
FTP
EXCESS
EMISSIONS
                EXCESS  FTP EMISSIONS IDENTIFIED
                flT CONSTflNT FfllLURE RflTE UITH
                DIFFERENT HC/CO  OUTPOINT EMPHPSIS
           C035
                                                          C020
         I-
      Fail Vehicles
      Only for CO
                    IDLE HC/CO OUTPOINT EMPHflSIS
Fail Vehicles
Only for HC

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EPA recommends two specific HC/CO cutpoint loci for pre-1981 vehicles,  one  for
pre-1968 vehicles  and the  other  for 1968-1980 vehicles.   Suggested loci  are
listed in Table 1 and  illustrated in Figure  2.   These  loci are believed  to  be
reasonable, moderate,  and  administratively convenient.  They are  suitable  for
I/M programs  needing  HC only  or  both HC  and CO reductions.   Advice  for  I/M
programs requiring only  CO reductions will  follow  this report.   I/M benefits
predicted by MOBILE2 are based upon  these  loci.  Special help is available  for
states who  wish to depart  significantly  from them.   The  207(b)  standards  of
220 ppm HC  and  1.2%  CO are recommended  for  use  in all  I/M programs for  1981
and later model year vehicles.
\J Excess  FTP emissions, are  defined to be emissions  above the FTP  standard.
The  percent  identified in  the fraction  of  all  excess  FTP  emissions  in  the
vehicle fleet which are accounted for by vehicles failing  the  short  test.   The
percentage of excess  emissions  identified  is  a  rough  indicator  of   likely
emission reductions possible.   If only  a  small proportion of  the  fleet  excess
emissions  are  identified  there  is  probably not  much potential  for emission
reductions.

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                     Table 1

Suggested HC/CO Cutpoint Loci (Pairs)  For  Pre-1981
               Model Year Vehicles
                    Model Year
Pre-1968
HC (ppm)
200
225
250
275
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
1400
1467
1533
1600
CO (%)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
1968-1980
HC (ppm)
200
225
250
275
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
CO (%)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0

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              Figure 2
      EPfl  RECOMMENDED HC/CO CUTPOINT LOCUS

11.0

10.0

 9.0

 8.0

 7.0



 5.0

 4.0

 3.0

 2.0

 1.0

 0.0
  I
         (300. .3.)
      (200. , 1.1
           _L
                    (800..8.)
(1000. .10.)
                                          (1600.. 10. J
                                          ..8.51
                                       MYB 1968  -
                                       1980
                                       «YR PRE  68
    J	!
J	I
0  200  400  600   800  1000 1200 1400 1600  1800  2000
 100   300   500   700  900  1100  1300  1500 1700 1900
                     HC  (PPM)

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                                       10
B.  Technical Problems in Selecting Initial Outpoints (Pre-1981 Vehicles)

Once  a  locus  of  possible  HC/CO  cutpoints  is  selected,  selecting  specific
cutpoints for initial  use  in an I/M program  is simply  a matter of  estimating
the  failure rates  that  will  result  from  different possible  cutpoints  and
choosing the cutpoints  that  produce  the desired  failure rate.  Estimating  the
failure  rate  resulting from  a set of  cutpoints  requires  attention to  an  I/M
program's unique  attributes.   Consideration of  the geographic  location  and
starting date of the program are both important.

The same cutpoints  may yield  substantially  different failure rates depending
on  the geographic location  of the I/M  program.   EPA samples indicate  varia-
tions  in failure  rate of  as much as  5 percent  when identical cutpoints  are
applied  in  different  states.   Altitude,  fleet  composition  and  local  main-
tenance habits  could  be contributing  factors  to this variation.   The use  of
local  data  therefore  is  probably better for failure  rate  estimation than data
collected in  other areas,  provided enough  local data  is collected  to keep
sampling error at an acceptable  level.   Table  2 gives sample  sizes  appropriate
for sampling one  model year  group with varying  tolerances, confidence  levels
and estimated  model year  group failure  rates.  For exampl.e,  an I/M  program
which desires an accuracy of +2% with  95%  confidence  for each model  year group
failure rate estimate  and  is interested in failure  rates  of 35 percent  should
sample  2185 vehicles  per  model year  group   in its  cutpoint  strategy  (10925
total  if,  as is  recommended,  five  model year groups  are used  for  pre-1981
vehicles).   The data  from  this sample  should be  preserved  in  the  form of  one
record for  each vehicle, the  record should consist  of the  HC  and CO  scores  and
the model year or model year group.
                                    Table  2
                            Appropriate Sample Sizes
                    for Estimating Failure  Rates at Different
                       Levels of Confidence and Tolerance
Confidence
Level—
95%


99%



Failure
Rate
20%
25%
30%
35% '
20%
25%
30%
' 35%

+_ 1%
6147
7203
8068
8740
10618
12443
13936
15097
Tolerance
+ 2%
1537
1801
2017
2185
2655
3111
3484
3775

± 5%
246
289
323
350
425
498
558
604

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                                       11
The  best  data to use  when estimating the  failure  rate  in  an I/M  program  is
data  from  the operating program itself.   However, to  select initial outpoints
it may  be desired to  obtain these estimates before  the actual program  is  in
place.  Two possible ways  of collecting useful  data  are a pilot program (e.g.,
shopping  center  testing)   and  a  mandatory  inspection/voluntary  maintenance
phase.jY   A  strong possibility of recruiting or  sampling bias in  the former
makes the  latter preferable.  For  either option,  though,  test  accuracy must  be
assured  by  good  quality   control.   Otherwise  the   sample  estimates  may  be
meaningless.

Failure  rates observed  now  for  a given  set  of cutpoints  and vehicles  are
probably  lower than they  will be in the  future.   As  vehicles  age  and  are
driven more  miles they get dirtier.   For this  reason,  a given pair  of  HC/CO
standards  for a given model year will  result  in higher failure  rates  with
time.  Failure rate estimates derived from a current  sample will  be less than
what  will  actually be observed in  a program  beginning  a  couple  years  from
now.  The most recent  data is therefore the  best sample to use when estimating
failure rates.

When  the  actual  I/M program  does  begin,  states  should plan to use  the actual
I/M data to measure the actual failure rate in the initial months.   A  month  or
two  should be sufficient  time  to collect enough data to make  these  measure-
ments.

Once  the  necessary data  has been gathered, estimates  for  the failure  rates
resulting  from various  cutpoints  can be  achieved  using  computer  software
similar to the FORTRAN program attached.  This  program can test  any  cutpoint
pair  input by the user  and return the  resulting failure rate,  or accept  as
input a  desired  failure rate and HC/CO  cutpoint  relationship and  return  the
appropriate cutpoints.   With  data  sets of reasonable sizes,  such  as mentioned
in Table  2,   this  analysis can be managed  on most  computer systems  once  the
data has been transcribed into computer usable form.
JY Either of  these  approaches  may over predict the failure  rate which will be
observed at  the  beginning of  the mandatory maintenance  I/M program.   During
the mandatory maintenance  phase,  some  vehicle  owners  will probably have  their
vehicles maintained anticipating  the emissions  inspection.   No data is  avail-
able to investigate this further.

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                                       12
For  the  benefit of  states  which do  not  have  local data  available,  EPA  has
developed  a  model  to  predict  failure  rates  for  various  cutpoints  in  the
future.I/   Data used  in  creating   this  model  came from  10,450  light  duty
vehicles of all model years  sampled  nationwide  by EPA's I/M Demonstration Vans
during the  past  year,  2,513 1975-1980  model  year vehicles tested  in  Houston,
Phoenix,  St.   Louis,  Chicago  and Washington D.C.  by   EPA's  Emission  Factor
Program between 1975 and  1979,  and  10,656 vehicles of  all  model years  sampled
in New Jersey's  I/M program during the past  year.   The EPA model  accounts for
the  fact that failure  rates will be higher when  I/M programs start than  when
these vehicles were tested.

Tables 3 and  4 present prediced  minimum, maximum, and mean  failure rates  for
all  pre-1981  model year  groups.   Table  3 is  for  programs beginning  1/1/82;
Table 4 for those  starting a year later.  The  minimum  is  the  failure  rate for
the  most  recent and  therefore the  youngest and cleanest model  year in  the
group;  the maximum is  the failure  rate  for the  oldest and  therefore  the
dirtiest model year; and  the mean is  the average for  all  the model years  in
the  group, taking the  national  average registration  distribution  of  model
years within  model year  groups at  the  projected time  into  account.   As  the
tables  show,   there  is  little  variation  in  failure rates  among  model  years
within a model year group, as is usually  desired. This verifies the appropri-
ateness of the model year groupings  chosen.
JY  Details concerning  this model  are  to be  released in  a technical  paper
titled: "Failure  Rates  in  Inspection  and  Maintenance Programs".  Copies will
be  distributed  to  state  I/M  officials  and will  also be  available  from  the
EPA's I/M Staff in Ann Arbor, Michigan (312)668-4367.

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                                                        Table  3

                                        Initial Model-Year Group Failure Rates
                                            Predicted by EPA Outpoint  Model
                                            At I/M Program Start Date 1/1/82
Outpoints
Idle
HC CO
(ppm) (X)
200 1.0
220 1 .2
225 1.5
250 2.0
275 2 .5
300 3.0
350 3.5
400 4 .0
450 4.5
500 5.0
550 5.5
600 6.0
650 6.5
700 7.0
750 7.5
800 8.0
1400 8.5
1600 10.0
Registration
Fraction



Pre-1968
Mini/





90.0
86.6
81.1
75.4
69.8
65.0
62.2
56.7
51.0
46.6
4.1.9
26.3
16.0


Max2_/





90.3
87.2
81.1
77.6
71.0
65.7
62.8
57.8
52.2
48.3
43.9
29.0
16.7
.038

Mean3_/





90.1
86.9
81.1
76.5
70.3
65.5
62.5
57.4
51.7
47.5
42.9
27.8
11.4






1969-71
Min





76.8
71.3
66.3
59.9
53.5
48.6
42.6
37.0
34.3
29.1
24.8




Max





76.8
72.0
67.5
61.4
54.2
49.9
44.1
39.4
35.1
30.2
27.4


.110

Mean





76.8
71.8
66.5
60.9
54.2
48.9
43.2
38.2
34.4
29.6
25.8




Min
86.0

81.2
75.2
68.9
65.3
58.7
.53.3
47.9
42.5
36.3
31.4
27.3
23.6
19.4
16.6




Model
Year Group
1972-74
Max
88.7

83.4
77.5
71.4
68.3
62.1
56.6
51.2
46.5
39.7
34.8
30.1
25.8
22.7
18.9


.184

Mean
87.2

82.4
76.3
70.1
66.3
60.4
54.7
49.6
43.9
38.0
33.1
28.6
24.5
20.8
17.6




Min
58.8

52.0
47.3
43.2
40.0
35.1
30.8
26.3
22.4
19.8
16.7
14.4
12.0
10.2
8.0




1975-79
Max
77.9

60.0
54.8
50.3
48.7
44.1
39.3
35.1
31.2
27.6
23.6
20.7
18.4
16.0
13.9


.449

Mean
66.1

56.5
51.1
46.9
44.7
39.9
35.4
31.2
27.2
23.7
20.3
17.8
15.4
13.3
11.2




1980 1981+4/
Mean
48.5
5.0-10.0
43.0
36.6
31.0
24.2
19.4
16.6
13.9
11.5
8.9
7.2
5.3
4.0
3.0
1.9


.095 .124

(1) Minimum model year failure  rate  within model year groups.
(2) Maximum model year failure  rate  within model year groups.
(3) Average failure rate  in  model year  groups weighted by projected model year registration fractions.
(4) EPA recommends use of 207(b) short  test standards of 1.2% CO and 220 ppm HC.
    EPA expects  that the  failure rate from these outpoints will never exceed 5-lOfc.

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                                                        Table 4

                                        Initial Model Year Group Failure Rates
                                            Predicted by EPA Outpoint Model
                                            At I/M Program Start Date 1/1/83
Outpoints
Idle
HC CO
(ppm) (%)
200 1.0
220 1 .2
225 1.5
250 2 .0
275 2.5
300 3 .0
350 3.5
400 ' 4 .0
450 4.5
500 5.0
550 5.5
600 6 .0
650 6.5
700 7.0
750 7.5
800 8 .0
1400 8.5
1600 10.0
Registration
Fraction
Model
Pre-1968
Mini/





90.0
86.6
81.1
75.4
69.8
65.5
62.2
57.4
51.4
47.2
42.3
27.0
16.3


Max2/





90.3
87.2
81.1
77.6
71.0
65.7
62.8
57.8
52.2
48.3
43.9
29.0
16.7
.027

Mean3/





90.2
87.0
81.1
77.0
70.6
65.6
62.6
57.7
52.0
47.9
43.3
28.4
16.6


1969-71
Min





76.8
72.0
66.3
61.4
54.2
48.6
43.2
38.1
34.3
29.6
25.8




Max





76.8
72.0
67.5
62.2
55.2
49.9
44.1
39.6
35.1
31.4
27.4


.084

Mean





76.8
72.0
66.7
61.5
54.6
49.1
43.6
38.9
34.6
30.0
26.4




Min
87.2

83.0
76.7
70.3
65.7
60.9
54.6
50.1
43.4
38.5
33.7
28.8
24.4
20.9
17.6




Year Group
1972-74
Max
90.3

84.6
79.2
73.0
69.8
63.5
57.6
52.5
47.8
40.7
35.6
30.7
27.3
23.1
19.4


.152

Mean
88.5

83.5
77.6
71.4
67.6
62.0
56.0
51.1
45.5
39.5
34.5
29.7
25.6
22.1
18.5




Min
60.6

54.8
49.6
45.7
42.6
37.7
33.0
28.7
25.1
21.6
18.8
16.3
13.9
11.4
9.9




1975-79
Max
79.8

63.1
56.6
51.0
50.1
46.2
41.1
36.9
32.3
28.7
25.1
22.0
19.8
16.8
15.0


.447

Mean
69.5

58.3
52.6
48.1
46.3
41.7
37.1
32.9
28.8
25.1
21.7
19.1
16.7
14.4
12.3




1980 1981+4/
Mean
51.4
5.0-10.0
45.9
39.2
35.2
27.0
23.6
18.9
16.5
13.9
11.6
9.6
7.8
5.9
4.4
3.4


.073 .217

(1) Minimum model year failure  rate  within model year  groups.
(2) Maximum model year failure  rate  within model year  groups.
(3) Averge failure rate in model year  groups weighted  by projected model year registration fractions,
(4) EPA recommends use of 207(b) short test standards  of 1.285 CO and 220 ppm HC.
    EPA expects that the failure rate  from these outpoints will never exceed 5-10%.

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                                       15


C.  Outpoints For Initial and Subsequent Years (Pre-1981 Vehicles)

Because of emission deterioration, failure rates based  on  data  available  today
are expected to increase up  to  the time  at which the I/M  program begins.   I/M
will  thereafter  reduce  failure  rates relative  to what they  would have  been
without I/M, since maintenance  received  to  pass the  I/M test  will still  have
some effect when vehicles come  due for  their  next  annual inspection.   How much
effect varies with the standards the  vehicles  were  initially  required  to pass.

During the first  twelve  months  of an annual  I/M program,  failure rates should
remain approximately constant if vehicle inspections  fall  on vehicle  birthdays
since the inspected vehicles will be  the same age  each  month.   This may not be
the case  in  states which have  recently switched  to  a  staggered registration
system or still have another registration system in place.

At the second annual inspection, failure rates will probably be different,  for
a given  set  of outpoints, than  they  were at  the first  inspection.  Two  prin-
ciple factors  influence  how failure   rates will  change.  Those vehicles  which
were maintained as  a result of  the  first  inspection will  still be cleaner at
the  second   inspection   than  they would have been  without  emissions  main-
tenance.   They may even  be. cleaner than  they  were  one year earlier  at  the time
of their  first inspection, depending on how much cleaner maintenance made them
and how fast  they  have  deteriorated.   Passing vehicles  will have deteriorated
during the  interim period between  inspections thus  tending  to result in  an
increase  in the failure  rate.   The change in  failure  rate  will  depend  upon the
balance among these  influences.   Since  sufficient  maintenance  would have  been
performed on  failed  vehicles to enable them  to  pass the original outpoints,
the failure rate change will largely  depend upon the initial failure  rate  and
outpoints.

EPA's cutpoint model predicts that without I/M, model year group failure  rates
will increase  1~4  percentage points  in  the   course  of  a  year  while  with  I/M
these failure  rates  will decrease 4-14  percentage points for  a  given set  of
outpoints designed  to  achieve  an  initial  failure  rate  of 35% in  each  model
year group.

States have two general  options  to choose from in  selecting  their I/M  cutpoint
strategy.  They may  leave outpoints   fixed from  year to year  and  let  failure
rates change,  or  they  may  adjust outpoints   from  year to year  to achieve a
constant  failure  rate  or some  other  desired  pattern of failure  rate._l/   The
second option  puts  the  state in control of failure rate,  and  thereby  also  in
control of the demand for I/M- repair  and  for reinspection.
JL/  Fixed  outpoints  with   changing  failure  rates  are  modeled  in  MOBILE2.
Special help is available if a  state wishes  to  adjust outpoints during an  I/M
program.

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                                       16
The  effectiveness  of  an  I/M  program  in reducing  emissions  from  pre-1981
vehicles  increases  as  cutpoints are  made stricter,  up  to  the point  at  which
clean cars  are being  failed  frequently.  In  practice,  this  only means  that
failure  rates  should not exceed  50 percent.   If a  state  allows  cutpoints  to
stay fixed  and as  a result  the failure  rate  declines  (as  it generally  will
between  the first  and  second year),  the  state  is  losing  an opportunity  for
greater  emission reductions.   These  greater  reductions   could  be  achieved
without  increasing  the failure rate  from the rate  to  which  the public,  the
repair industry, and the I/M employees are already accustomed.  All  that  would
be needed  to achieve  the  greater  emission reduction would  be to tighten  the
cutpoints just  enough  to keep  failure rates constant.  EPA  therefore  recom-
mends that states plan  to adjust cutpoints in  this way.

EPA has  estimated the  initial cutpoints and the  revised cutpoints  that  would
be needed  at  the  start of  the second  year,  for a range  of failure  rates.
These estimates are  shown  in Table 5.   By the start of the third year,  each
I/M program should  be  able  to  revise its cutpoints  nore  accurately  by  using
local data than by relying on EPA's general estimates, so third and  subsequent
year cutpoints  are  not  included.   Table 5 gives  appropriate cutpoints for I/M
programs beginning  1/1/1982 and 1/1/1983.  The  second year cutpoints  shown  in
these tables  should be planned  for  implementation  at  the beginning of  the
second  inspection  cycle.   To  insure  a  program's   capability  of   adjusting
cutpoints to maintain  a constant  failure rate,  it  is  further suggested  that
the stricter  subsequent year  cutpoints  be  on  the  books  and ready  to  take
effect from the start of the  program.

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                                                        Table 5

                                             EPA Recommended I/M Outpoints

    Outpoints predicted to give constant failure rates among  pre-1981  vehicles  for I/M beginning
    1/1/82 and 1/1/83 in initial and second year inspections  by  EPA cutpoint  model.
I/M Nominal
Beginning Failure
Date Rate (%)

1/1/82
20

25

30

35 21

1/1/83
20

25

30

35

Program
Sequence



initial
2nd year
initial
2nd year
initial
2nd year
initial
2nd year

initial
2nd year
initial
2nd year
initial
2nd year
initial
2nd year
Model Year Groups
Pre-1968
HC
(ppm)

1550
1400
1450
1400
1400
800
1400
800

1550
1400
1450
1400
1400
800
1400
800
CO
(%)

9.5
8.5
9.0
8.5
8.5
8.0
8.5
8.0

9.5
8.5
9.0
8.5 '
8.5
8.0
8.5
8.0
1968-71
HC
(ppm)

850
750
800
700
750
600
700
600

900
750
800
700
700
650
700
600
CO
(%)

8.5
7.5
8.0
7.0
7.5
6.0
7.0
6.0

9.0
7.5
8.0
7.0
7.5
6.5
7.0
6.0
1972-74 1975-79
HC
(ppm)

750
600
700
500
650
400
600
400

800
600
700
550
650
450
600
400
CO HC
(%) (ppm)

7.5 600
6.0 500
7.0 550
5.0 400
6.5 450
4.0 350
6.0 400
4.0 300

8.0 650
6.0 500
7.0 550
5.5 400
6.5 500
4.5 350
6.0 400
4.0 300
CO
(%)

6.0
5.0
5.5
4.0
4.5
3.5
4.0
3.0

6.5
5.0
5.5
4.0
5.0
3.5
4.0
3.0
1980
HC
(ppm)

350
450
300
400
275
300
250
275

400
450
350
350
300
300
275
275


198H-I/
CO
(%)

3.5
4.5
3.0
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.0
2.5

4.0
4.5
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
HC


220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220

220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
CO


1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2

1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
I/ All I/M programs should use the 207(b)  cutpoints for 1981  and later vehicles
   for all program years.   EPA expects that the failure rate  from these cutpoints
   will never exceed 5-10%.

2/ EPA recommends this failure rate for best effectiveness.

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                                       18
D.  Subsequent Outpoint Revision (Pre-1981 Vehicles)

EPA  outpoint  predictions for  pre-1981  vehicles are  not tailored  to specific
local conditions  such as fleet  composition,  altitude,  and  maintenance  habits
indicating  that  both initial  and  subsequent  failure  rate projections  will
probably not  be completely accurate.   For  1980 vehicles in particular,  EPA's
predictions  are  based  on  limited  data  and  consequently  may  be  inaccurate.
Thus it is likely that states will  find  it necessary  to  revise  their cutpoints
after I/M has begun.  States  should be  prepared to revise cutpoints within the
first one  or  two months  to correct  for overall or  model  year  group  failure
rates which  differ  from  those  expected and desired.   If  a  state  wishes  to
achieve a  constant  or specified failure rate in the  second and  later  years,
subsequent revisions become imperative.

In designing an  I/M program it may be desirable to specify in  advance  (by law
or  regulation)  how  cutpoints  will be  revised.  One  alternative  is to  give
administrators a  free hand  in cutpoint  revision.  If  this is not preferred,
there  are  other  alternatives  retaining  administrative   flexibility   while
keeping program administrators  from having  a completely free hand.   By  law or
regulation a state  could  establish a range (such as  +_ 2.0% CO, _+  200 ppm HC)
in which cutpoints may be modified  without new  laws or  time-consuming ruleraak-
ing.  A variation of this alternative would be  an enforcement tolerance  or one
sided  range  allowing administrators  to  tighten but   not  loosen  cutpoints.
Conversely, a state could establish by  law  or regulation a  range  within  which
the  program  administrator  would be  directed  to  confine  the  failure  rates,
requiring him/her to revise the cutpoints if  the failure rates  should be  found
outside of these boundaries for some appropriate length  of time.

States should be able to make  cutpoint  revisions  quickly.    This will be  found
to be especially desirable during the first few months at  the start of  the I/M
program when  local  influences  on  failure   rates  become  apparent.   Similar
corrections may be  necessary  at the beginning of the second inspection  cycle.
To  accomodate  this,  procedures  for data  collection,  handling,  and analysis
should be developed.  What  is necessary is a continuous sample of  idle  scores
and failure frequencies  at first inspections  identified by model  year and  test
date, and the capability of analyzing these data in a  rapid  manner.

E.  Cutpoints  for 1981 and Later Vehicles

The I/M process for  1981  and later vehicles will be different  in several  ways
as compared to  earlier  model year  vehicles.   This results  from  the signifi-
cantly  different  technology  which will be  employed  on  the  1981  and  later
fleet.   This  technology  utilizes  an  on-board  computer  control  system  to
monitor the operation of  the  engine and continuously  adjust engine  parameters
such as air/fuel ratio,  spark timing,  EGR flow rate,  etc.  This is  in contrast
to earlier model  year vehicles which rely on a combination of fixed internal
parameters  (passage  sizes,  spring  stiffnesses,  etc.)  and  adjustable external
parameters  (adjusting screws, variable distributor alignment, etc.)   For  these
earlier model  year  vehicles,  one  of  the main causes  of  vehicles emitting
excessive  emissions   in-use  is  improper adjustment  of  the external  engine
parameters  (e.g. idle mixture).  This occurs  in a fairly  large percentage  of

-------
                                       19
the  in-use  fleet.   (The  other main  cause of  excessive  in-use  emissions  is
normal  deterioration  of replaceable  components  such as  spark  plugs,  the  air
filter,  distributor  cap and  rotor,  spark  plug  wires,  diaphragms  and  rubber
hoses.)   For  the  1981  and later  fleet, however,  the  few remaining  external
adjustable parameters are  of  minor importance in  terms  of emissions,  and  the
more critical internal parameters are not adjustable  and  fall under control of
the  on-board  computer.   The  main  cause  of  vehicles  emitting  significantly
above the standard is failure of the  computer control system.   (The other main
cause of high emissions for earlier model  year  vehicles as described above  is
also  still  present  but  plays  a  secondary  role.)   Failure of  the  computer
control  system  can  occur  in a  variety  of  different  ways,   but  it  is   not
expected  to occur very often.  When  it does occur,  HC  and CO emissions rise
dramatically:  hundreds of  percent  over  the design standard.   The I/M process
for  1981  and  later vehicles  will  focus in on this  relatively  small group  of
grossly emitting vehicles^.

As indicated above,  1981  and  later vehicles are also expected  to experience a
phenomena common to all model years of  vehicles: ignition  and misfire  problems
due  to  deterioration  and  failure  of  replaceable  ignition  parts.   These
problems  are,  in  a  certain way,  similar in nature to  the  computer control
system  failures  described  above.   That  is, they  do not occur very often,  but
when they do they can cause a  dramatic increase  in  HC emissions.

Given the preceding background on the differences  in  1981  and later technology
and  the  types  of  failures  which will be  encountered,  issues related   to
cutpoint  selection and  failure  rates  can now  be discussed.  There  are   two
issues: the first is that  the selection of  the short  test  to be used for 1981
and  later vehicles  is of  more  importance  than  which outpoints  are used.   The
second is the  impact  of the 207(b)  warranty on cutpoint  selection.

The first area listed above stems from  the  fact  that  due  to the sophistication
of  1981 and later  vehicles,  some  I/M   short tests  will  be  more  capable   of
identifying the gross emitters  than others.   For example,  a test which  simply
measures a vehicle's emissions at idle  will be  slightly less effective  than a
test  which  also  measures  and  evaluates (i.e.   passes  or  fails)  a vehicle's
emissions at either an elevated  speed  (2500 rpm)  or  under a loaded condition
(30 mph at 9.0  AHP  load).  Evaluating a vehicle's  emissions  at modes other
than the basic idle mode puts the computer control system  more  to the test  by
giving it more than one operating condition to respond  to.  This  conclusion is
based upon analyses  of data  from  actual in-use vehicles  equipped  with tech-
nology representative of the 1981 and later model  year  fleet.   While cutpoints
still play  an  important role,  their  role is secondary in comparison  to   the
choice of which short test will be  used.   Since  the  computer control system is
assumed  to  either be operating  properly with very  low emissions or  to have
failed with resultingly very high emissions, the  in-use emissions picture will
1  A more  complete discussion  of this  subject  can  be  found  in  a technical
report entitled: Derivation of  I/M Benefits  for  Post-1980 Light Duty Vehicles
for Low Altitude, Non-California Areas.   [EPA-AA-IMS/81-2]

-------
                                       20
be  much more  quantized.   This  is  as  opposed  to  the  continuous  range  of
emission levels  seen  among fleets of earlier model  year  vehicles with adjust-
able  parameters.   Thus, varying  the  cutpoints up  and down within  reasonable
limits  will  not  yield significant  changes  in  the failure  rate.   Grossly
emitting vehicles will  for the  most  part  be  identified  by  any  reasonable
cutpoint.

The discussion  so far  has  focused on vehicles with a failure of the  computer
control  system.    The   other major  source  of  excessive  in-use  emissions  is
vehicles with ignition and misfire  problems.   These vehicles  will  have  an
in-use emissions  performance similar  to current model year  cars.   Therefore  it
is  reasonable to conclude  that  currently  available cutpoints  (such  as  the
207(b) cutpoints  discussed  below) will work equally well in identifying  those
vehicles requiring maintenance.

The failure rates resulting from the identification  of vehicles  with  computer
system  failures  and  of vehicles with  severe  ignition/misfire   problems  were
combined to arrive at  the  estimated  failure rate of  5-10% shown in Tables  3
and 4.  In comparison to earlier model year  vehicles,  there are not  large data
bases  from  1981  and  later  vehicles  participating  in  representative  I/M
programs.  Thus,  failure rates  cannot  be  more closely quantified as they have
been for earlier model year fleets.

The second area  of discussion has to  do with the impact  of  the  207(b)  warranty
upon  the  selection of  cutpoints.  The  207(b)  regulations established  three
basic  tests  as  acceptable  for  use  in  the  warranty  process:   the  basic
Idle-in-Neutral test with or without a  2500  rpm  preconditioning,  the Two  Speed
Idle  test  (ldle-in-Neutral/2500 rpm/Idle-in-Neutral)  and the  Loaded Two Mode
test  (30 mph @  9.0 AHP/Idle-in-N7eutral) .   The regulations  also provided,  for  a
number of  variations  on test format,  that  is,  which test  modes  would  be used
in making  the pass/fail decision.   Cutpoints were  established  for each test
and are EPA's  recommendation for use for 1981 and  later  vehicles in operating
I/M  programs.   The  basic   cutpoints  are  1.2%  CO  and 220 ppm  HC.   The one
exception  to  this is  for  the   Two Speed  Idle test  where either  the 2500 rpn
emissions or  the  lower  of  the  two Idle-in-Neutral  emissions  are the  criteria
for failure.  For these cases  the cutpoints  are  1.0% CO  and 200 ppm HC.   Table
6 lists the basic tes-fe-s, the variety  of formats and the cutpoints  for each.

-------
                                       21
                                     Table 6

                      207(b) Tests and Associated  Cutpoints
                             (1981 and Later Models)
Basic Test
Idle-in-Neutral
Mode(s) to be Evaluted
Idle-in-Neutral
Cutpoints

1.2% CO, 220 ppm HC
Two Speed Idle
  (Idle-in-Neutral/
   2500 rpm/Idle-in
   Ne.utral)
Lower of two Idles-in-
Neutral

2500 rpm

2500 rpm and Lower of two
Idles-in-Neutral
1.0% CO, 200 ppm HC


1.0% CO, 200 ppm HC

1.0% CO, 200 ppm HC
2500/Idle-in-Neutral!/
2500 rpm

Idle-in-Neutral
1.0% CO, 200 ppm HC

1.2% CO, 220 ppm HC
Loaded Two Mode
Idle-in-Neutral              1.2% CO, 220 ppm HC

30 mph                       1.2% CO, 220 ppm HC

Idle-in-Neutral and 30 mph   1.2% CO, 220 ppm HC
.!/  This test  combines  the  2500  rpm test  and  standards  from  the  two  speed
idle test with the basic idle test, and  is 'EPA's  recommended  test  for 1981 and
later  models.   It  differs  from  the   two  speed   idle  in  that  only  one
idle-in—neutral   is   performed.    Because   the   standards   are   relatively
insensitive to  failure rates  for post-1980 models, 1.2%  CO and  220 ppm HC are
recommended for both modes for the purpose of simplicity in administration.

-------
                                       23
              LDVI/

              Pre-1968
              1968-1971
              1972-1974
              1975-1979
              1980
              1981+
             Table 7

    Vehicle Model Year Groups
Corresponding To Similar Emission
      Control Technologies

            LDTll/                LDT21/

            Pre-1968              Pre-1970
            1968-1971             1970-1972
            1972-1974             1973-1978
            1975-1983             1979-1983

            1984+                 1984+
J./ LDV  = Light Duty Vehicle.
2] LDT1 = Light Duty Truck with GVW less than 6,000 pounds.
_3/ LDT2 = Light Duty Truck curb weight greater than 6,000 pounds or Light  Duty
         Truck with GVW between 6,000 pounds and 8,500 pounds.

-------
                                       22
There are several points which lie behind  EPA's  recommendation that  the 207(b)
cutpoints be  adopted.   First, and perhaps most  obviously, a  tighter  cutpoint
should  not  be used.   This  would result  in  problems  with warranty  coverage.
For  example,  if  an I/M cutpoint  was  set lower  than  the established  207(b)
cutpoint, an auto manufacturer would not need  to honor a warranty  claim from  a
vehicle  which failed  the  lower cutpoint since  the  regulation  specifically
defines the higher  cutpoint  as  the  lowest acceptable criterion.   On  the  other
hand, while a  state or locality could  select  cutpoints higher than  the 207(b)
cutpoints without loss of warranty coverage,  there is  no  good reason to  do so
since  the  failure  rate using  the   207(b)   cutpoints  is  already  very  low
(5-10%).  This failure rate  is well below the limit necessary for good public
acceptance.

F.  Cutpoints for Light Duty Trucks

The  same  considerations  apply when selecting  cutpoints  for light duty trucks
(LDTs)  as in  selecting  cutpoints  for  light  duty vehicles  (LDVs).   LDTs are
classified  into  2  weight  categories   for  purposes of  federal emission  stan-
dards.  Each category is subject to a  different  set of certification  schedules
for meeting federal emission standards.  LDT model year groups recommended in
Table 7  are  chosen  so  that  each group has similar emission  controls  to the .
corresponding LDV model year groups.

The  same  cutpoints  should be applied  to both LDT categories  as  well  as  LDVs
within similar emission control groups.  Further refinements are possible  once
the I/M program begins.

III. Summary

Cutpoints should be  selected  and  adjusted  to maintain  a  constant  failure
rate.   Appropriate  initial  cutpoints   and  revised cutpoints  for  the   second
inspection cycle  are presented  in  Table 4.   If an I/M  program  results  in  a
failure  rate  lower  than anticipated,  the  failure  rate  should be allowed to
climb,  or  cutpoints should  be  revised.   Whatever the desired  failure  rate,
HC/CO cutpoint pairs should be selected  from  HC/CO loci  in Figure 2 and  Table
1.

-------
          Attachment
FORTRAN program for automating
      outpoint selection

-------
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-------
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rfEAO <1,F>1T,END*1S) HC(N), CO(N)
CONTINUE

" N " IS THE SAMPLE SlZt

N = N - 1

SORTING

CALL SOKTPRC HC, co, VAiitVAiZt N, IRTN )

CALL SOHTPR( CO, HC. VA«?1.VA22. M, I«TN )


CALCULATE PERCENTILES AND LIST THEM OUT.

wki rtfti.iio)

00 3U 1P=2,99,2
PtKT = ( IP • N ) / 100
INT = ( IP u N ) / 100
DLL = PEKl - INT
HCTIL = VAH(INT) » DEL « VAll(INT*l) « ( 1. - OEL )
COTIL = VA21UNT) » OEL * VA2KINT+1) « ( 1 . - DEL )

WKlIt(6,112) IP, HCTIL. COTIL

CUNiIliNUE

IP = 100
WKITE(0,112) IP, VAll(N), VA2KN)


MAJOK OPF.HATIONS by USINli " CUTOUT " SUBROUTINE

whUTt (b, 1 1<»)

RC.AO (5,116) ANS

IK{ ANS .tU. ONO ) GO TO 999

CALL CUTOUT( VA11.VA22, VA21,VA12, COMl, N )
•
GO TO 777

STOP
ENO


IttblS^i: SAOP tlILE;!«06'.G-CUT 1'

20


2 1
2?
23



2^»


—
23

2f>




2V

?_=>
?°
30
31'
3^
33

3<»

3?

36
3f




3*

3°

u(3

u\

U'.

ul
4°
-------
IUU W
110
111
112
113
1 1*
us
lib-
117
118
119
120
121
122
123.
U*
US
12b
127
12«
129
130
131
132
133
1 3*
135
1 36
137
13d
139
1*0
1*1
1*2
1*3
!<**
1*5
!<AGt  3>
       1'3
       i'-f
      2?
      23

-------
                                                           *,„._.-—.-•—.———..—— ———. — — ———»'    
                                                                   I  t)ftIE:iO-16-80»OB!22  QjiN|F.a:SAQP  F.1LF.I t»0*><»r,-CUT    I'
               cccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc
   169         CC                                                                       C
   170         CC  THL  iUiJMOUTINE,  CUTOUT, IS TO CALCULATE THE HC  &  CO  CUTOUT POINTS   C
   171         CC  fwOM OIVtN  FKtOUtNCIES OR VICEVEKSA.                                 C
   172         CC                                                                       C
   1 73         CC                                                                       C
   I7a         CC                                                                       C
   175         CC                                                                       C
   \fh         CC                                                                       C
   177         CC                                                                       C
   I7d         C.C     WKITTEN  eiY J.P.CHENG   ON 07-15-BO.     .                          C
   .179         CC                                                                       C
   180         CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC                                          __
   1B1         CC
   Id2                SUcJWUUTlNE CUTOUTl    VA11.VA22,   VA21,VA12,   COMl,     N )                                                     l'
   1*3     •    CC
               CC
                      DIMENSION VAl 1(SOOO),VA 22 (5000), VAiM (5000), VA12 (5000) ,COMl (20)                                                 ?.
                      DIMENSION  S^CISOOO), SCO(5000),  KS<5000)»    PCT4(4),COK2(20)                                                 J
                      DIMENSION  KTIM                                                                                                <•
               CC
                      DATA MLNK/'    '/                                                                                               ^
                 5*0  FUHrlATCO INPUT COMMENTS WHICH WILL  rfE  USED  AS 0/P HEAOEN',                                                     6
   191               w /JA»'  ( OEFLT = PHEVIOUS COMMENT INPUT  )',  21X,  6('COMM») )
   192          • SVS  FOKMATI        ««««»« INPUT OPCODE (1/2/3/4): •  )                                                 V
   196           bOl  Fu«M«T('u INPUT :                                  »,                                                           l'n
   197         '      •>             '/»0   HC. CUT   CO CUT" /'    XXX.XXX  XXX.XXX'  )
   198           00?  FOrfKAH «0- INPUT '  F2 (HC-F-Co-P) f. F3*F'»(CO-F)  IN •»                                                           IT
   199               *'HtrtCfiMTAl»E.S. '/'O    ^ ?. '.'>   F3«F4 A' /'    XXX.XXX  XXX.XXX'  )
   200           603  FUrtMATCO INPUT !'/'0 MEHCENT  HCCUT/COCUT   ',                                                                 lV?
                     «'             '/'  F2 + f-3«F'»   HA Til)  • /'    XXX.XXX  XXX.XXX'  )
                 60<<  fUKMA'ft'O INHUT :'/'U PEKCt'NT                '•                                                                 13
                     *'             '/'  F2»F3*F<»          • /i    XXX.XXX         •  )
               CC
   2*05           202  KUHMATI  II )                                                                                                    l<»
   206           212  Furi.«iAT(    2FV.3 )                      •                                                                        Ti

   2oe         cc
   ^09           -220  Fux.MATCO ««««« THE NEGATIVE Fl  = ', F10.3)                                                                    l'7
   ^'0           22^  FUKHAFllHU,'  «« yo« uo«ou*> uttuo 11 uu tto«ttOiiouuo«ooo» i f                                                       ^
   ?11               •/'     H C    H C    H C    H C      SIZE  «I
   212               »/'     CO    CO    CO    CO',
   213               »/'     P P    F P    P F    F F  '»
   ?»•»               «/ IX,  M7»  3X»I7,    i   FREO.          '        *
   21^               »/ 2X,  <»F7.3,  '            F«F.O.  IN PERCENTAGES '  ,
   216               »//•  »•»   HC CUT =', F9.3,' /   CO CUT =',Fft,3  //  IX,  40<»<>«)  )
   217           244  I-U^MATCO  »*««•«»«»  SO«HY  CHARLIE  ««»••««•«««•«/.                                                          fy
   2M               •  '   UNA6LL  TO   CALCULATE    WITH      Fl  =  ',  14
  '219              «/'       HC CUT a •, F7.3,'    N    CO CUT  «=  ',  F7,3 )
   ?20         CC
   221         cc     INITIALIZATIONS AND HEAOEH FIXING
   222         CC
  ^223                UU  110 K=l»<»                                                                                                   20'
   ?><»                K T <<<}  a  n                                                                                                     iff

-------
231
232
233
23A
237
2<»6
?<*7
2*0
2bl
2:>2
2S3
200
263
                                                                                                                     .«
                                                                                                                      i
            CC
            CC
            CC
            CC
               115
      HtAO (S.bVb)  COM2

      KNT = U
      DO UU K = l»20
      IF( COM2(M .E'O.BLNK > KNT = KNT  »  1
      CONTINUE

      IK ( M-Jf.tu.20 ) GO TO 116
      00 115 K=1.20
      COM1(K) = COM2(K) '
      CONllNOE
            CC
            CC
              ]
            CC
            -,?cc
  116
  127
            CC
CC

CC
CC
CC
              COMl

MAJOK UPEHATIONS START HERE   *»**««»«««nnnnnn»i»»»

w«lTt(o.60U)

KtAO .KODE

OHCOOE = 1  < GIVEN HC CUT   AND  CO CUT   TO GENERATE RESULTS.  >
            CC
      «c.Alj  (^,212) HCCUT,  COCUT
      HCCUT = HCCUT +  .b
      COCUT = COCUT »  .005
                   HCCUT.  CHCUT
no
              [=I.N
26A
265
266
0
2*1
212
•» 11 ^





150
CC

CC
CC ,
CC !
2

•
CC
CC
CC

CC
Kb 1) =
IK Vil
IF VAl
U VAl
KT ^S<

1
1
1
1
(I).
(1).
(1).

GT. HCCUT
Lt.HCCuT
GT.MCCUT

.ANO.
. ANU.
.A NO.


VA12
vAii;
VA12

(1)
(I)
(I)

.LE
.GT
.GT

.COCUT ) KS(I) = 2
.COCUT ) KSU) = 3
.COCUT ) KS(I) = <»
I) > = KT< KSU) ) « I
CONTINUE

Gu TO

OHCOOE

WK! TE(b
KtAO (-3
WK1 TE (o










voo

=

f
«
,


^

602)
212)
21A)


< GIVEN


F2^CT.
F2PCTi

OtTEKMlNE NFCO AND

NFCO =


N


« (


100. -


F2<*>


F3AHCT
F3APCT



AND





NFHC CUT

F34PCT.
» * k >c r+i\ .

)
1







F3»F*











t-fi) TO GENERATE RESULTS. >





OFF POINTS.

/
t

100


. »


0.999
V/N O^. *
                                                                                                                   . S>

                                                                                                                   IS'?'
                                                                                                               2°

                                                                                                               31'



                                                                                                               33
                                                                                                               3S

                                                                                                               36
                                                                                                               -JV

                                                                                                               34
                                                                                                               AJ

                                                                                                               A«
                                                                                                               A'-;
                                                                                                               fcS
                                                                                                               /./
                                                                                                               A><
                                                                                                               <.;
                                                                                                               50

                                                                                                               SI
                                                                                                                                 S-
                                                                                                                                 b'S

-------

                                                                   I  QAJ£; 10-16-BOtOHJ22  Ciitlf.E.SSAQP  FJJ.£:ti06<»G-CUT     I'
                                                                   ..__i	.	-.—..r	..i...	.	»••         is-;

   2b'»            260 IF(VA21 (NKCO) .EO.VA21 (MFCO'l)  )  NFCO =« NFCO • 1                                                                S7
   ?MS                1F.(VA2J (NFCO).EU.VA21 (NFCO-1)  )    GO  TO  260                                                                  S3
   ?16          CC
   2«7            

NKHC = NFCO « < F1PCT / ( F1PCT » F2PCT ) ) * 0.999

IF < SHC(NKHC) .N£. SHC(NKHC»1) ) GO TO 2til
IFf iiMC(NFMC) .EO. SHCINFHC*!) ) NFHC = NFHC » 1
IF { briC(NFHC) .tO. SHC(fiFHC-l) ) GO TO 280;

HCCUV = SKC(NFHC) » O.b


TO COUNT F(l) i F(2) WHEN CO PASSES.

KT(1) = NF'MC
Kl (2> = NFCO - NFHC

IM = NFCO » 1


GO 10 bSO

O^COOE = J < GIVEN F2*F3»F^(9S) AND HCCUT/COCUT RATIO
TO GENERATE HESULTS. >

wKIft (0.603)

HtAU (b,212) F23a, HATIO
WKlILlb.21^) F23<», HATIO

CONST o 0.

GO TO J10


OPCyUE » f < WITH BUILT-IN RELATIONS (I.E. HCCUT=KATIO»COCUT»C)
GIVEN K2*FJ»F*(*) TO GENEKATE RESULTS. >

WHITE (0.60
-------
                                                                                                           .»     *HAOfc ft
                                                                                                            I
                                                                                                           .«•          is:
CC
  310 F1PCT  =  100.  - F23<»                                                                                             P*?
CC
      NrHC =   N  «  F1HCT / 100. » 0.999                                                                                H»
CC
CC
      COLO = VA211NFMC) » .OOb-                                                                                        *<•
      COHI = VA21 (N)     * .005                                                                                        «S"
CC
CC
      00 3BO iNTKY=l»20                                                                                                H'*
CC
      CoCUT  =  (  COLO * COHI ) / ?..                                                                                    H'7.
CC  .
CC
      IF ( KOuE.fc.0.3 )   GO TO 3<»0                                                                                      ti*
CC
CC    IF( NTHY.tU,! .AND. J.OOb.itT.CUhl  )   COCUT = 3.005
                               rUTIO  =  100.                                                                            6=*
      If ( CUCUT  .LE. 3.00 >   KATIO  =  SO.                                                                            9'i
                               CONST  =    0.                                                                            91'
      IFC COCUT  .LE. 3.00 )   CONST  =  150.25                                                                         9»
CC                        .
  3*»o HCCUT  =  CUCUT « HAT'IO » CONST                                                                                   91
CC
        UO JSi> I=NFHC%N                                                                                               Vfc
         IF(  VA2KI) .GT4 COCUT )   GO TO  3btt                                                                          W-:
  355   COiNTlNUL      '                                                                                                9'»
CC
       •  WHlTt (ftt?**^)  NFhC,HCCUT«COCUT                                                                                 9/
        00 Tu  (V99.V99, 3.  <» J ,  KOOC                                                                                 <»>
CC
  3!>8   CoCUT  =  VA21(I-1) « .OOb                                                                                      <*••»
        HCCUT  =  COCUT • RATIO * CONST                                                                                I'OO
CC
        00 3t>0 K = 1.4                                                                                                 101'
        KTU)  =  0                                                                                                     I'u^
  360   CONTlNUt                                                                                                     103
CC
CC
      IM = I - 1                                                                                                     1'0<.
CC
        DO 370 1=1.IM                                                                                                JOS
        ^S^I)  =  1                                                                                                     I'ejf,
         IK I  VA22II) .GT. HCCUT ) KSd) = 2                                                                           I'D f
CC
        KT(KSm)  = KT(KS(D) » 1                                                                                    lO'l
CC
 '370   CONTlNUt         '                                                                                           10'>»
CC
         IF(  KT(1)  - NFHC )    373,  800. 376                                                                           1'l'n
CC
  373   COLO = COCUT                                                                                                 J'lY
        GO TO  360                                                                                                     llV
CC
  376   CO«I 5, COCUT                                                                                                 11'3
CC
  3ttO CONTlNUt                                                                                                       11'4

-------
                                                           *	
                                                                   I  UAJ£:iO-16-a0.08s22  QttlWSAOP
                                                                   «	..	,	..__...._...	.»•'        is ;

   400         CC
   401         CC
   402         CC
   403           HOO  IM  =  IM •  1                                                                                                   11^"
   40<»                IKdAHbt  KTtll- NFHC )  .UT.  S )    GO    TO    850                                                            11'"
                      W«Ht(o»2<»'«)   NFMC, hCCUTt COCUT                                                                             11'
                      GO   TO (9Wt999» 3t 4 ) ,  KOOE                                                                               I'l''1.
   i.07         CC
               CC
               CC     STANT  TO  COUNT F(3) S F(<») WHEN CO FfllLS.
   410         CC
   Ml         CC
   412           bSO  00  0*5 I = IM,N                                                                                                It-i
   413                KS«I)  = J                                                                                                     I'?'1
   4U                IM  vA^atn  .GT. HCCUT >  KSID = 4                                                                          121'
   4)S                KT(  ^S^I)  >  = KT( KSII)  ) » 1                                                                                Mi*
   416           ttbS  CUNT1NUE        •                                                                                              l?i
   417         CC
   4lB         CC     WKlIt  UOT  HtSULTS
   419         CC
   4 • 100. / N                                                                                   12'i
   4
-------
                                           T A H L  E   OF   CONTENTS
                                                     (ALPHABETICAL)

      MOOUI £                                             FILE                                                  PAGE
CUTOUT t SUttrtOUUNfc.' .............................  B06<»G-CUr (
MAIN HHOGKAM  ....................................  B06<«G-CUT ( Ibt 109) .............. .. ............ ; ......... '     1
SORTPR i SUUttUUTiNt  •• ..... • .....................  f»06<»G-CUT ( 12
-------