United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air and Radiation
(ANR-443)
Washington, DC 20460
April 1996
Air
EPA Mobile Source Emissions in
Cairo, Egypt and Impact
of Control Measures
Prepared by
Eugene J. Tierney
Nyaneba Nkrumah
Christopher Polovick
-------
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air and Radiation
(ANR-443)
Washington, DC 20460
April 1996
Air
v>EPA Mobile Source Emissions in
Cairo, Egypt and Impact
of Control Measures
Prepared by
Eugene J. Tierney
Nyaneba Nkrumah
Christopher Polovick
-------
Table of Contents
Executive Summary i
Introduction 1
Emission Inventory for Greater Cairo 2
Inspection and Maintenance Program Analysis 9
Analysis of Costs and Cost Effectiveness of I/M 14
New Vehicle Standards 19
Reduced Fuel Volatility 22
Conclusions and Recommendations 23
List of Figures
Reported Cairo Registration Distribution 5
Smoothed Cairo Registration Distribution 5
Comparison of USA vs. Cairo Registration Distribution 5
Projected Hydrocarbon Emissions in Greater Cairo 8
Projected Carbon Monoxide Emissions in Greater Cairo 8
Projected Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in Greater Cairo 8
Emission Reductions from Decentralized, Test-and-Repair L/M in Cairo 11
Emission Reductions from Centralized, Test-Only I/M in Cairo 11
Carbon Monoxide Emission Reductions from Centralized v. Decentralized 11
Impact of Motorist Compliance on Centralized Emission Reductions 12
Impact of Waivers on Centralized Emission Reductions 12
Impact of Both Compliance and Waivers on Centralized Emission Reductions 12
Impact of I/M on Overall Hydrocarbon Emissions 13
Impact of I/M on Overall Carbon Monoxide Emissions 13
Total Cost of I/M in Cairo 17
Hydrocarbon Emissions With U.S. New Vehicle Certification Standards 21
Carbon Monoxide Emissions With U.S. New Vehicle Certification Standards 21
Nitrogen Oxide Emissions With U.S. New Vehicle Certification Standards 21
Total Hydrocarbon Emissions With Lower Volatility Fuel 22
Total Hydrocarbon Emissions With Clean Cars, Lower Volatility Fuel, and I/M 23
List of Tables
Cairo Fleet Characteristics Assuming Low VKT 4
Cairo Fleet Characteristics Assuming High VKT 4
Cairo Emission Factors in 1996 6
Comparable U.S. Emission Factors in 1996 7
Cairo Emission Rates in 1996 7
Basic Assumptions Used in the Cost Analysis 14
Estimated Repair Frequencies and Costs in Cairo 16
Estimated Inspection Costs and Capacity Needs in Cairo 18
Emission Factors Assumed for New Vehicles in Cairo 20
Impact of Introducing U.S. Emission Standards in Greater Cairo 20
Impact of Clean Cars, Lower Volatility Fuel, and I/M 23
Appendices
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations A
Phase 1 Presentation B
MOBILE5 Users Guide C
MOBILES Output Files D
U.S. Motor Vehicle Emission Standards E
Future Data Collection F
-------
Executive Summary
Phase One
Analysis of Cairo, Egypt
Mobile Source Air Pollution Control Strategies
Emission Inventory
* Motor vehicle emissions in Cairo are very high and are increasing
Thousands of Metric Tons per Year
1996
114
111
225
1175
85
2000
136
III
267
1397
102
2008
192
145
337
1974
145
Hydrocarbons
Exhaust
Evaporative
Total
Carbon Monoxide
Oxides of Nitrogen
Inspection/Maintenance
• Motor vehicle emission inspection can reduce HC and CO emissions
Year 2 000 Emissions
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Oxides of Nitrogen
Decentralized
1000 Metric
Tons
260
1206
102
%
Reduced
3%
14%
0%
Centralized or Hybrid
1000 Metric
Tons
253
1034
102
%
Reduced
5%
26%
0%
Decentralized programs are less effective than centralized and hybrid programs; hybrid
programs are shown to be equally effective as centralized but may be somewhat less so,
depending on the vigor of enforcement
The I/M program will not reduce NOx emissions, and in fact will probably cause them
to increase (this is a direct result of HC and CO repairs).
Motor vehicle inspection is not enough to reduce overall emission levels over time
• Growth in vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) is estimated at 4.4% per year
• While emissions of HC and CO will drop after initial implementation of I/M,
overall emissions start to rise again and exceed before program levels by 2002
Thousands of Metric Tons per Year
Hydrocarbons
Carbon Monoxide
Centralized or Hybrid I/M Network
2000
253
1034
2002
275
1019
2005
313
1118
2008
357
1265
Pagei
Executive Summary
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New Vehicle Standards
• New vehicle emission standards are essential for achieving meaningful long term
emission reductions in Cairo, especially for oxides of nitrogen and evaporative
emissions since the I/M program will not reduce these emissions at all
• This table shows the projected emission rate and reductions assuming that all new VKT
growth, starting in 2000, is from new vehicles that are certified to meet U.S. standards
HC
CO
NOx
Impact of New Vehicle Emission Standards
2000
1000
Metric
Tons
228
1190
89
%
Reduced
15%
15%
13%
2002
1000
Metric
Tons
230
1202
91
%
Reduced
21%
21%
18%
2005
1000
Metric
Tons
233
1226
95
%
Reduced
30%
29%
25%
2008
1000
Metric
Tons
240
1270
100
%
Reduced
36%
36%
31%
• Reductions from new vehicles continue to increase as fleet turnover progresses
Reduced Fuel Volatility
• The third major strategy to reduce mobile source emissions is to lower the volatility of
gasoline (both leaded and unleaded). The current Reid Vapor Pressure of gasoline in
Egypt is 8.8 pounds/square inch. Lowering the RVP to 6.7 psi would reduce
emissions of hydrocarbons by 16%, as shown in the table below.
HC
Impact of Reduced Fuel Volatility
2000
1000
Metric
Tons
224
%
Reduced
16%
2002
1000
Metric
Tons
245
%
Reduced
16%
2005
1000
Metric
Tons
278
%
Reduced
16%
2008
1000
Metric
Tons
317
%
Reduced
16%
Combined Reductions
• The combined effect of the I/M program, introducing lower priced unleaded gasoline
more widely and requiring new car standards by 2000, and lowering the volatility of
gasoline (both leaded and unleaded) is to bring about major reductions in long term
emissions
HC
CO
NOx
Impact of Three Strategies Combined
2000
1000
Metric
Tons
185
1030
99
Reduced
31%
26%
13%
2002
1000
Metric
Tons
186
997
101
Reduced
36%
35%
18%
2005
1000
Metric
Tons
189
1006
105
Reduced
43%
42%
25%
2008
1000
Metric
Tons
194
1048
111
Reduced
49%
47%
31%
Page ii
Executive Summary
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TOTAL HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS WITH
CLEAN CARS, CLEAN FUEL, AND I/M
400
Add Clean Fuel
Add I/M
1996
1998
2000
2002
2005
2008
Calendar Year
• These strategies are additive in effect. The reductions from one are not dependent
on implementation of the other programs. The increment from one to the next
represents the benefit for that program.
• While these strategies bring about major reductions in emissions, overall emissions
eventually begin to rise as a result of VKT growth. Other strategies will be needed
to either keep this growth under control (such as transportation control measures) or
to further reduce emission rates (such as cleaner vehicles and cleaner fuels).
Assessment of In-Use Standards
• The Executive Regulations establish in-use vehicle standards and new vehicle standards
for carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and"smoke. We evaluated these standards.
Benefits
• Application of the in-use emissions standards for carbon monoxide (7% at idle) and
hydrocarbons (1000 ppm at idle) will yield an initial failure rate of approximately
35%, based on data collected in the pilot study
• Given this, we believe that these standards are practical and realistic. This level of
failure is typical of U.S. inspection programs for similar technology vehicles.
• These standards will yield substantial reductions in the emissions of carbon
monoxide (about 20%-35% depending on network type) and smaller reductions in
exhaust hydrocarbons (about 5-10%). Oxides of nitrogen may increase as a result
of the program and evaporative emission rates will remain unaffected.
• We believe that this level of impact is as much as one can expect from an inspection
program, given the mix of vehicles in the Cairo fleet.
Page iii
Executive Summary
-------
Costs
• The total annual cost of the program is estimated at about £E16 million, with about
£E5 million in repair costs and £E11 million in inspection costs.
• The cost-effectiveness of this program is estimated to be about $360 per U.S. ton
of hydrocarbons removed if all cost is assigned to hydrocarbon reductions, or about
$ 15 per U.S. ton of carbon monoxide removed if all cost is assigned to carbon
monoxide reductions. These costs per ton compare very favorably with emission
reduction programs in the United States where costs per ton are typically in the
$500 - $25,000 range for hydrocarbons and $100-$200 range for carbon
monoxide. The lower costs in Egypt are due primarily to the comparatively low
wage rates assumed in the analysis.
Social Impact
• The cost per test of the recommended I/M program is estimated to be approximately
£E 15. The cost of repair for vehicles that fail the test are estimated to be
approximately £E22. These costs represent a small fraction of the operating cost of
the typical vehicle. For example, average annual gasoline costs for private
passenger cars in Cairo amounts to about £E 12,000. The cost of testing and repair
is generally offset by fuel economy benefits as well, making the program even more
practical.
• The I/M program will offer a range of new job opportunities for Egyptians. In the
repair industry, technicians will receive training in new areas, specifically those
designed to reduce emissions. Technicians will also be introduced to new tools and
to computer technology for testing and repairing vehicles. New jobs will also be
created in the inspection process. Jobs will include managers, quality control
specialists, public relations staff, emission inspectors, and other positions
necessary to run the program.
Assessment of Standards for 1995 and Newer Vehicles
Benefits
• Application of the 1995 and newer vehicle emissions standards for carbon
monoxide (4.5% at idle) and hydrocarbons (900 ppm at idle) will not substantially
increase the benefits of the I/M program over that shown above for older vehicles
• We recommend that EEAA focus on collecting data on in-use idle emissions of all
vehicles, and as soon as sufficient data is available promulgate new standards based
on model year and vehicle type
• As an interim measure, we recommend that new passenger vehicles be tested or
certified using idle/2500 rpm emission standards of 1% CO and 200 ppm HC.
Vehicles imported into Egypt that otherwise meet U.S. or European new vehicle
standards except that catalytic converters are removed may be automatically
certified. It is recommended that vehicles be tested using unleaded gasoline prior to
the use of any leaded gasoline in the vehicle.
• We strongly recommend accelerating the introduction of unleaded gasoline and that
steps be taken immediately to insure that unleaded gas is less expensive than leaded
gas (either by lowering unleaded prices or, preferably, raising leaded gas prices).
Page iv Executive Summary
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Leaded gasoline should be phased out entirely as soon as possible. Note that
vehicles designed for leaded gasoline can operate on unleaded gasoline without
deleterious effects. Besides the direct health threat posed by lead in gasoline, it also
accelerates deterioration of vehicle engines (old or new), and it destroys the
emission control systems in new technology vehicles. So, even though many
vehicles currently brought into Egypt are computer controlled, fuel-injected
vehicles, much of the benefit of this technology is lost due to lead fouling of the
emission control components, especially the oxygen sensor.
• We also strongly recommend that by the year 2000, all new vehicles built in Egypt
or imported into Egypt be certified to meet U.S. (or European) emission standards.
This does not require a complete phase-out of leaded gasoline, although that is
recommended, but a per liter price for unleaded lower than leaded gasoline and
adequate supply and distribution of unleaded are essential to prevent misfueling.
Costs
• The cost of implementing the interim new vehicle standards if all new vehicles were
tested, is £E45,000 for testing (assuming about 30,000 new gasoline vehicles per
year). The same equipment and facilities may be used for this testing as for the in-
use program discussed above. The cost of repairs to vehicles prior to sale should
be borne by the vehicle manufacturer not the purchaser of the vehicle. Ultimately,
manufacturers unable to lower emission rates to meet these (relatively weak) interim
standards may have to discontinue sales in Egypt.
• The cost of implementing U.S. new vehicle standards in Egypt comes largely from
the cost of increasing unleaded fuel output in Egypt. It is outside the scope of this
study to determine those costs. Clearly, the health benefits of eliminating lead in
gasoline are well documented and more than offset the costs of doing so.
• Since some or most vehicles imported into Egypt already meet U.S. standards prior
to catalyst removal and use of leaded gasoline, no additional cost will be incurred
for these vehicles.
• Requiring new vehicles to be certified to meet U.S. standards is likely to change the
mix of vehicles imported into Egypt. Some vehicles that were not previously
competitive in the Egypt market because of the cost of pollution controls may now
be competitively sold in Egypt. Other vehicles that do not meet U.S. standards will
no longer be sold. We do not believe this will reduce the range of choices currently
available in Egypt.
• Motorists will also save money by avoiding lead-induced engine wear and the
higher frequency of maintenance required in vehicles using leaded gasoline.
Social Impact
• It is absolutely essential to price unleaded gasoline less than leaded gasoline.
Otherwise, the incentive will exist to remove catalysts and use leaded gasoline.
• The introduction of meaningful new vehicle standards in Egypt will further elevate
the professionalism and importance of the repair technician. New vehicle
technology currently in Egypt is already presenting this challenge, and emission
standards wilt simply expand this challenge to the area of emission control system
diagnosis and repair.
Page v Executive Summary
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Summary and Conclusions
We recommend that Egypt proceed with implementation of the I/M program using
the in-use standards currently promulgated in the Executive Regulations and revised
standards for new vehicles.
We find that this program is practical and realistic for the situation in Greater Cairo,
and will have a positive environmental benefit; however, the I/M program alone
does not provide sufficient emission reductions to adequately address the air quality
problem in Cairo. Thus, additional measures are essential. The program is very
cost-effective and will not unduly burden the Egyptian economy.
On an interim basis, we recommend that the Executive Regulations for new vehicles
be modified to tighter standards. The current new vehicle standards will do little to
improve in-use vehicle emission performance and are not realistic given the
potential for new vehicle engine performance. Even the tighter interim standards
are insufficient to bring about meaningful emission reductions but should serve to
eliminate poorly made vehicles from the fleet.
We strongly recommend that the supply of unleaded gasoline be increased as
quickly as possible and that the price of leaded gasoline be raised such that it is
greater than unleaded gasoline.
To achieve major emission reductions, we recommend that by the year 2000, all
new vehicles sold in Egypt be certified to meet U.S. new vehicle standards and that
fuel volatility be decreased to 6.7 psi RVP as soon as possible.
Page vi Executive Summary
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Introduction
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was asked to assist the U.S.
Agency for International Development (US AID) and the Government of Egypt (GOE), in
conformance with the USAID/Egypt Sector Policy Reform II Program (SPRII), to review
the GOE's air emission executive regulations and make recommendations for the
implementation of the Vehicle Emissions Test and Tune-up program (hereafter referred to
as the inspection/maintenance or I7M program) and other mobile source air pollution control
measures. SPRII includes a policy measure that "the government of Egypt will issue
executive regulations for air pollution sections (especially those related to vehicle
emissions) of Law 4/1994 which are practical, realistic, and have a positive environmental
impact without unduly burdening the economy." The Egyptian Environmental Affairs
Agency (EEAA) promulgated motor vehicle emission regulations under this authority.
EPA assembled a team of mobile source air pollution control experts, including Eugene J.
Tierney, Nyaneba Nkrumah, and Christopher Polovick, to carry out this task.
The primary objectives of the EPA team were to: evaluate the practicality, realism
and impact on the environment and Egyptian society of current emission regulations; refine
plans for implementation of the I/M program; and, the development of a long term vehicle
emission control program, covering phase-out of lead in gasoline, new vehicle emission
standards and other major emission control measures. The work performed by EPA
included: preliminary data analyses and assessments; site visits, interviews and information
gathering by the team of technical experts in Cairo in January and in March, 1996. The
work has been split into two phases.
The first phase involved gathering the basic data needed to create an inventory of
mobile source emissions for Cairo using data on fleet composition, fuel characteristics,
vehicle usage, and growth. These data were used to estimate vehicle kilometers traveled,
emission rates, and failure rates of the Cairo fleet at various cutpoints. The team analyzed
alternate I/M scenarios and estimated the emission reduction impact of these program
designs. The team also analyzed the emission reduction impact of fuel volatility control and
introduction of new car standards. This report discusses the methodology and results of
these analyses, along with the team's conclusions and recommendations. The team
presented these results to the GOE and US AID in a visit to Cairo in March 1996.
The second phase will consist of further developing recommendations on mobile
source pollution control and refining plans for the I/M program in Greater Cairo. This
work will lead to a final report and a workshop to be given by a team member in Cairo in
late May or early lune of 1996.
Appendix A to this report contains a glossary of terms and abbreviations to assist
the reader. Appendix B contains revised versions of the charts presented to EEAA in Cairo
in March 1996.
Page 1 Introduction
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Emission Inventory for Greater Cairo
Analysis of Cairo's mobile source air pollution begins first with the emission
inventory, a quantitative representation of the total pollutants produced by the entire vehicle
population in the greater Cairo metropolitan area. The inventory is constructed with EPA's
mobile source emission factor computer model, MOBILES, and a number of program
inputs based on the local characteristics of Cairo. The MOBILES model is designed to
estimate average per vehicle emission rates for a wide range of vehicle ages and types. A
copy of the MOBILES users guide may be found in Appendix C and a copy of MOBILE5-
Egypt is included on disk. The model produces emission rates for hydrocarbons (HC),
carbon monoxide (CO) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx), expressed in grams per mile (which
we converted to grams per kilometer). We also used information supplied by EEAA to
calculate fleetwide emission rates. These various results are useful in comparing emission
reduction benefits of different control measures.
Methodology
A series of MOBILES runs were performed to estimate the emissions of the three
pollutants in Cairo in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2008. Copies of the output files
for these runs and all others done in this report are included in Appendix D and copies of
the input files are included on disk. These years were picked to illustrate current, near term
and long term changes in emissions as a result of growth, and the implementation of
various possible control measures.
One of the primary inputs to MOBILES is the distribution of Vehicle Miles Traveled
(VMT), a ratio of the total mileage accumulated by vehicle type. For purposes of this
analysis, VMT was converted to vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). The model considers
each of eight vehicle classes:
LDGV Light-Duty Gas Vehicles (passenger cars, taxis)
LDGT1 Light-Duty Gas Trucks (pickups/vans <6000 Ibs. Gross Vehicle Weight)
LDGT2 Light-Duty Gas Trucks (pickups/vans 6000-8500 Ibs. GVW)
HDGV Heavy-Duty Gas Vehicles (delivery trucks, buses, > 8500 Ibs. GVW)
LDDV Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles (passenger cars, taxis)
LDDT Light-Duty Diesel Trucks (pickups/vans)
HDDV Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles (long-haul trucks, buses)
MC Motorcycles (two and three wheel motorized vehicles)
We used data provided by EEAA, U.S. AID, the 1995 MIRAGE report, and the
1993 PRIDE report to characterize the vehicle population by type, kilometers traveled,
average speeds, vehicle ages, and other local parameters. Computerized vehicle
registration data was not available from the Ministry of Transportation and we were unable
to verify the accuracy of the data received. Much of the data was in very rough form and
generalized into broad categories. We attempted to reconcile any differences between the
data sources based on past experience. Many of these issues will be addressed in the
following discussion.
EPA received varying reports on the average kilometers traveled, particularly for
heavy-duty diesel vehicles. Estimates ranged as high as 100,000 kilometers per year for
these vehicles but.it was suspected that much or most of this mileage was accumulated by
the long-haul trucks outside of Cairo as they moved goods to and from the city and
Page 2 Emission Inventory
-------
outlying ports. Emissions that occur outside Cairo area are not germane in the emission
inventory so it was necessary to estimate the actual number of kilometers that heavy diesels
were being operated in Cairo. To account for these and possibly other uncertain mileage
estimates two separate scenarios were run on MOBELE5, one using a low VKT estimate
and one using a high VKT estimate. These two estimates are shown in Table 1 and
Table 2, respectively.
The data provided to us grouped taxis separately from other light-duty passenger
vehicles, and separated buses from other heavy-duty diesel trucks. For the purposes of
modeling emission rates in MOBILES, these categories were combined - taxis with
passenger cars, and buses with heavy diesels. Taxis and buses combined represent only
about 10% of the Cairo fleet but they each have a very high average VKT, approximately
30% of the total VKT in Cairo.
Tables 1 and 2 show that over 60% of the total VKT is accumulated by LDGVs.
Considered along with the technologically similar light-duty truck 1 group, the fraction
jumps to over 70% of VKT. The next largest contributor is the heavy diesel group with
about 10-15% of the VKT, depending on actual mileage accumulation by heavy trucks in
Greater Cairo itself.
The actual number of vehicles in each of these groups and the actual average VKT
is an open question. .The data provided cannot be considered accurate inventories. Further
work should be done to collect more accurate data in order to refine this analysis and to
properly plan for an I/M program.
Another important program input is the age distribution of the vehicle population for
each of the eight vehicle categories. This data is important because MOBILES assumes
older vehicles with older technologies to be higher overall emitters than newer, more
efficient vehicles. EPA was provided an estimate of the overall Cairo vehicle population,
actual source or method of derivation unknown, which shows 1,250,000 vehicles. In
addition, a series of percentages were provided breaking this figure into age groups of five
years. We split the five year groups up equally into single year estimates. The first chart in
Figure 1 graphically shows this data.
For the purposes of modeling, we assumed a smoother age distribution as shown in
the second chart in Figure 1. We then applied this same curve to each of the eight vehicle
categories. The only exception was for motorcycles, where the model requires the entire
age distribution to fill a twelve year window instead of a twenty-five year window for the
other categories.
The third chart in Figure 1 compares the Cairo distribution with the national average
U.S. distribution. Note that the shapes of these curves are very different. The "natural"
distribution is closer to the U.S. picture where most vehicles are newer and the population
of vehicles trails off over time. The Cairo distribution was puzzling to us, since we were
told that import of used vehicles into Egypt was banned long ago. Further investigation
revealed that changing economic conditions and demographic changes explain the curve.
In the past, Egyptians were better able to afford new vehicles and purchased more of them.
More recent hard times caused a drop in new vehicle purchases, although new vehicle
purchase have apparently been climbing again (not shown in the curve because the data is 5
years old). Migration of people and their cars into Cairo from other parts of Egypt also
helps explain the unusual shape of this curve. Ideally, there should be a different age curve
for each of the vehicle classes based on actual counts of registration data.
page 3 Emission Inventory
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Table 1
Cairo Fleet Characteristics Assuming Low VKT
Vehicle Type
LDGV
Taxis
Cars
Subtotal
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
LDDV
LDDT
HDDV
Buses
Other
Subtotal
MC
Grand Total
Number of
Vehicles
98,234
624.110
722,344
62,356
25,473
0
0
55,220
19,283
105.398
124,681
161,692
1,250,000
Percent
of Fleet
8%
58%
66%
5%
2%
0%
0%
4%
1%
8%
9%
13%
100%
Average
Kilometers
per Year
50,000
10.000
30,000
25,000
0
0
30,000
45,000
10.000
5,000
Vehicle
Kilometers
Traveled
4,911,700,000
7.223.440.000
12,135,140,000
1,870,680,000
636,825,000
0
0
1,656,600,000
867,735,000
1.053.980.000
1,921,715,000
808,460,000
19,029,420,000
Percent
of VKT
26%
38%
64%
10%
3%
0%
0%
8%
5%
5%
10%
4%
100%
Table 2
Cairo Fleet Characteristics Assuming High VKT
Vehicle Type
LDGV
Taxis
Cars
Subtotal
LDGT1
LDGT2
HDGV
LDDV
LDDT
HDDV
Buses
Other
Subtotal
MC
Grand Total
Number of
Vehicles
98,234
624.110
722,344
62,356
25,473
0
0
55,220
19,283
102.272
121,555
164.818
1,250,000
Percent
of Fleet
8%
58%
66%
5%
2%
0%
0%
4%
1%
8%
9%
13%
100%
Average
Kilometers
per Year
55,000
16.000
40,000
35,000
0
0
35,000
95,000
20.000
6,000
Vehicle
Kilometers
Traveled
5,402,870,000
1 1 .557.504.000
16,960,374,000
2,494,240,000
891,555,000
0
0
1,932,700,000
1,831,885,000
2.045.440.000
3,877,325,000
988,908,000
27,145,100,000
Percent
of VKT
20%
43%
63%
9%
3%
0%
0%
7%
7%
8%
15%
4%
100%
Page 4
Emission Inventory
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Figure 1
Reported Cairo Registration Distribution
10%
Smoothed Cairo Registration Distribution
8%
6%
O
e 4%
o
2%
0%
10%
Comparison of USA vs. Cairo Registration Distribution
0%
252423222120191817161514131211109 87654321
Vehicle Age
Page 5
Emission Inventory
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We were provided data on average vehicle speeds in Cairo, which ranged from a
low of 14 km/hour for buses to a high of 40 km/hour for taxis. The weighted average
based on the vehicle population distribution provided was approximately 35 km/hour. Data
on total trip length and vehicle idle time was not available. Given the heavy traffic density
and congestion in Cairo, we assumed an average speed of 24 km/hour, which is closer to
what is experienced in similarly congested U.S. cities.
Local environmental conditions also impact the emissions profile and MOBILES
calculates the inventory with these data as well. Temperature is significant because
evaporative and refueling emissions increase with higher temperatures. EPA used the
average summer minimum and maximum temperatures of 25°C and 37°C respectively. We
also assumed Cairo to be a low-altitude city.
The characteristics of the fuel itself can have significant impact on evaporative and
refueling emissions. The Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) represents the volatility of the fuel
and is expressed in pounds per square inch (psi). We were provided data showing the
average RVP of the Cairo fuel supply as 8.8 psi.
The rate of growth is the most important factor affecting future emissions in Cairo.
Again, the data provided on vehicle population growth is a single number and it was not
clear what time frame and which vehicles were covered. We estimated that total VKT will
grow at a rate of 4.4% each year.
Results
Table 3 shows the results of the MOBILES runs for Greater Cairo. These results
are expressed in grams per kilometer and represent the average emission rates of all
vehicles (gasoline and diesel, light and heavy duty) in the Greater Cairo area. For example,
the typical vehicle in Cairo emits about 12.2 grams per kilometer of hydrocarbons. Note
that the exhaust hydrocarbons and evaporative hydrocarbons together equal total
hydrocarbons. The results show that while there is a difference in the emission rates
between the low and high VKT fractions, they are not large enough for HC or CO at this
time to be of significant concern. Note that HC and CO emissions are lower, while NOx
emissions are higher in the high VKT scenario. In reporting the results in the following
sections of .this report, only the high VKT scenarios are presented, with one exception.
The difference between the two scenarios is substantial for NOx, which would be expected
since the largest difference is in the diesel VKT fraction. Thus, where appropriate, the low
VKT scenario is presented for NOx, as well. The bottom line is, that HC and CO
emissions may actually be higher than shown, while NOx emissions may be lower,
Table 3
Cairo Emission Factors in 1996
Grams per Kilometer
Low VKT
High VKT
Total
HC
12.2
11.8
Exhaust
HC
6.1
6.0
Evap
HC
6.1
5.8
CO
64.1
61.7
NOx
4.0
5.0
For the purposes of providing some perspective on what all of these emission rates
mean, Table 4 shows the emission factors for the U.S. fleet, in grams per kilometer in
1996. This shows that average emission rates are 4-6 times higher in Cairo, as compared
to the U.S. fleet without I/M or fuel control measures. When you take into consideration
Page 6
Emission Inventory
-------
I/M and reformulated gasoline programs in the U.S., emission rates in Cairo are as much
as 8 times higher than the U.S. fleet (both of these measures have been or will be
implemented in heavily polluted U.S. cities). The difference between Cairo and the U.S. is
due to the fact that emission controls have been in place for over 20 years in the U.S., so
nearly the entire fleet has some level of emission controls, and the bulk of the vehicles are
equipped with fuel injected, computer controlled, closed loop systems (1981 and newer
vehicles).
Table 4
Comparable U.S. Emission Factors in 1996
Grains per Kilometer
Without I/M
& Reform
With MM &
Reform
Total
HC
2.1
1.6
Exhaust
HC
1.2
0.9
Evap
HC
0.9
0.7
CO
16.1
9.8
NOx
1.6
1.5
The outputs in Table 3 were multiplied by the high VKT scenario in order to derive
the total emission rates of each pollutant. These results are shown in Table 5. Total
hydrocarbon emissions are estimated to be 225,000 metric tons, carbon monoxide
1,175,000 metric tons, and between 76,000 and 95,000 metric tons of oxides of nitrogen
in 1996.
Table 5
Cairo Emission Rates in 1996
Thousands of Metric Tons
Total HC
225
Exhaust
HC
114
Evap
HC
111
CO
1,175
NOx
High VKT
95
NOx
LowVKT
76
Over time, there are several forces that will influence these emission rates, including
the pollution control measures that are instituted and the fleet turnover rate (the speed with
which old technology cars are replaced in the fleet with new technology cars). Another
very important influence is growth in VKT. Growth in VKT occurs as a result of two
factors: more vehicles, new and used, coming into and being driven in Greater Cairo and
increases average distance traveled by vehicles in Cairo. As Cairo continues to grow and
spread out, both of these forces will tend to drive up total emission rates. Figure 2 shows
the growth in emissions as a result of 4.4% growth in VKT. Emission levels of all
pollutants are projected to increase by over 60% by the year 2008. Note that the difference
between Total and Exhaust HC emissions in the first chart is the evaporative emissions.
Page 7
Emission Inventory
-------
o
H
.o
' l_i
4-»
I
C/l
T3
O
H
00
g
H
.y
i>
s
•-+-
o
•a
cfl
O
O
'^H
4—1
(U
Lfl
T3
o
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Figure 2
Projected Hydrocarbon Emissions in Greater Cairo
1996
•Total HC
• Exhaust HC
Projected Carbon Monoxide Emissions in Greater Cairo
Projected Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in Greater Cairo
•High Diesel
•Low Diesel
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Page8
Em ission _In yentory
-------
Inspection and Maintenance Program Analysis
The first pollution control measure to be evaluated is a motor vehicle inspection and
maintenance (I/M) program. We analyzed the impact of introducing various inspection
program options on emission rates over the 10 year period from 1998-2008. We used the
report entitled, Vehicle Emission Testing and Tune-up Program, by Gerald L. Gallagher,
and discussions with EEAA staff to establish the range of options evaluated.
Methodology
Since the I/M program design for Cairo is not settled, we looked at a variety of
options. As with the emission inventory analysis, we used a modified version of
MOBILE5. In addition to retaining the same basic assumptions used in the emission
inventory analysis, various other assumptions and estimates were used in generating the
emission reduction benefits of the I/M program. Some of these assumptions were drawn
from the Gallagher report. For example, we assumed that all gasoline-powered, light-duty
cars and trucks, regardless of age, are included in the program; that the program will start
by January 1998; and, that vehicles will be tested annually using a two-speed idle test.
Other key assumptions used in the analysis are discussed in the following paragraphs.
The first issue relates to network type. We analyzed three alternatives: an entirely
decentralized program, an entirely centralized program, and a hybrid network consisting of
both centralized and decentralized stations. For the purpose of emission reduction
estimates, we assumed the hybrid program would produce about the same emission
reduction benefits as the centralized program. Because of the increased incidence of fraud
and improper testing, decentralized programs are believe to achieve substantially less
emission reductions than centralized programs.
A constant failure rate of 35% was assumed for the Cairo fleet. Failure rates for the
vehicle sample in the pilot study conducted by Mirage in Cairo were calculated using
outpoints of 6% CO and 1000 ppm HC. In order to maintain a 35% failure rate over time,
it will be necessary for EEAA to tighten the cutpoints each year,
Another unresolved issue in Egypt is how to handle vehicles that cannot be
economically repaired. Most states in the U.S. that operate I/M programs issue waivers to
motorists who, after spending a minimum amount of money on emission-related repairs,
are still unable to meet emission standards. A waiver temporarily waives the requirement to
meet standards and allows vehicles that fail a retest back on the road. Some states give no
waivers; motorists that cannot comply must either scrap the vehicle or export it to an area
that does not have an emission test program. Waiver rates are most usefully expressed as
the percentage of vehicles that fail the initial test and receive a waiver. Two scenarios were
used to demonstrate the effect of waiver rates on emission reductions: a 5% waiver rate
and a 20% waiver rate. EPA recommends that, if waivers are issued at all, then the
program be designed to limit waivers to less than 5% of failed vehicles.
A key feature of any I/M program is the mechanism used to ensure that motorists
actually visit a test station and get tested when they are supposed to; this is referred to as
motorist compliance enforcement. The most cost-effective enforcement mechanism is
known as registration denial enforcement. Other approaches, such as windshield stickers
are either less effective or significantly more expensive, Egypt has adopted a three-year
registration option .which" will likely require an enforcement mechanism that combines
registration deniaL\vith other approaches. Thus, actual compliance rates will depend upon
the effectiveness of the approach adopted. Two compliance scenarios were used to
illustrate the impact of compliance fates on emission reduction benefits. A 95% compliance
Page 9 Inspection/Maintenance
-------
rate was used to portray a high degree of enforcement and motorist compliance. An 80%
compliance rate represented weaker mechanisms.
Multiple runs of the MOBILES model were made to test each of these assumptions
and the alternative scenarios.
Results
Figure 3 shows the impact of network type on emission reductions from the
proposed I/M program. Decentralized I/M programs have been shown to be less effective
than centralized programs because of the greater potential for fraud and improper testing.
The small number of stations and lanes, and the separation of the testing and repair
functions in centralized systems, allows for superior quality control, leading to greater
emission reduction benefits. This analysis assumes a hybrid program consisting of a
network of centralized facilities to conduct initial testing on all vehicles and some retesting,
and a network of decentralized facilities to conduct only retesting. The team believes that
this approach would be the most effective in Cairo, and would be nearly as effective as a
centralized system if carefully enforced.
The first chart shows the emission reductions from a decentralized, test-and-repair
I/M program. Emission reductions from carbon monoxide are larger than hydrocarbons,
and range from about 15-20% over time. The HC emissions are about 5% for exhaust
emissions and 3% for total HC emissions. The I/M program does not reduce evaporative
emissions, since vehicles are not required to be equipped with evaporative emission
controls.
The second chart shows the emission reductions from a centralized or hybrid
program. Again, CO is reduced most at about 30-35% over time, while exhaust HC
emissions decrease by about 11% and total HC emissions decrease by about 5%. The third
chart in Figure 3 shows more clearly the difference between centralized/hybrid and
decentralized I/M programs. This chart shows only the CO benefits and, as can be seen,
the impact of decentralized, test-and-repair testing is substantial.
Figure 4 shows the impact of compliance enforcement rates and waiver rates on
emission reductions. In each of these charts, the program assumed is a centralized system
or a hybrid system. The top line for each pollutant in each chart assumes a 95%
compliance enforcement rate and a 5% waiver rate. Waiver rates are expressed as the
percentage of initially failed vehicles that get a waiver, A compliance enforcement rate of
95% is about the best we have observed in the U.S. While it is theoretically possible to
bring all vehicles into compliance, practically speaking this is very hard to do. Waivers, on
the other hand, are a different story. Some programs in the U.S. give out no waivers at all.
Motorists either have to fix, sell elsewhere, or scrap their vehicles. Other programs allow
for waivers. This is a political choice.
The first chart shows the impact of only 80% compliance enforcement for CO and
HC. The emission reductions drop from about 35% to about 27% for CO, and from 11%
to about 8% for exhaust HC. The second chart in Figure 4 shows the impact of waivers.
The results are similar to that of enforcement, except that the loss in benefit is somewhat
less. The third chart shows the combined effect of 20% waivers and 80% compliance
enforcement. Together the CO emission reduction drops from about 35% to about 22%,
while exhaust HC benefits drop form about 11 % to about 6%.
Page 10 Inspection/Maintenance
-------
Figure 3
Emission Reductions from Decentralized, Test-and-Repair 1/M in Cairo
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
19
Carbon Monoxide
__^__«- — — — -«""••
* — ~~
^ Exnaust HC
"ln jL n ^-— *^"™ ^ ^ l¥1™11"11 mm m mmm "" llll>l """""""" " " "
• I^Br~^^ Totil HG—
98 2000 2002 2005 2008
Calendar Year
Emission Reductions from Centralized, Test-Only I/M in Cairo
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
Carbon Monoxide
Exhaust HC
2000
2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Carbon Monoxide Emission Reductions from Centralized v. Decentralized
5%
0%
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Page \ \
Inspection/Maintenance
-------
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Figure 4
Impact of Motorist Compliance on Centralized Emission Reductions
95% Compliance
Carbon Monoxide
Exhaust Hydrocarbons
Impact of Waivers on Centralized Emission Reductions
5% Waivers
Carbon Monoxide
Exhaust Hydrocarbons
Impact of Both Compliance and Waivers on Centralized Emission Reductions
40%
95% Coinpliance/5% Waivers
80% Compliance/20% Waivers
Exhaust Hydrocarbons
1998
2000
2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Page 12_
Inspection/Maintenance
-------
While the previous charts make it clear that the emission reduction benefits of an
I/M program are substantial, at Least for CO, they do not provide perspective on what
impact this program will have on overall emissions over time. Figures 5 and 6 show the
overall emission rates with and without I/M. While the number of tons reduced is
significant, the long term impact of I/M by itself is quite small for HC and modest for CO.
There is no continued downward trend. Of the four major forms of air pollution in Cairo -
particuiates, lead, ozone, and carbon monoxide - CO may in fact be the least problematic.
So, the I/M program by itself will not address the health problem presented by motor
vehicle air pollution.
Figure 5
Impact of I/M on Overall Hydrocarbon Emissions
400
g 350
•2 300
5
•S 250
o
200
150
100
Total HC
**
With I/M
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Figure 6
Impact of I/M on Overall Carbon Monoxide Emissions
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Page 13
Inspection/Maintenance
-------
Analysis of Costs and Cost Effectiveness of I/M
In addition to assessing the benefits of various I/M program alternatives, we
attempted to estimate the costs of inspection and repair for each of these programs in Cairo.
As with the emission analysis, basic data on various issues is not clear. For example, the
likely salary of a trained emission inspector is a guess at this point. Despite these
shortcomings, we believe that the cost estimates presented here approximate what can be
expected of an I/M program in Cairo.
Methodology
The cost analysis included determining repair and inspection costs for decentralized,
centralized, and hybrid network designs. In order to estimate these costs, some basic
assumptions were necessary. Table 6 presents these assumptions.
Table 6
Basic Assumptions Used in the Cost Analysis
Subject Vehicle Population 717,650
Failure Rate 35%
£E per Dollar 3.395
Rate of Growth 4.4%
Hourly Labor Rate £E7
Work Day s/Year 271
Work Hours/Day 9
Work Hours/Year 2439
Retest Fraction • 50%
Audits Per Lane 3
Audits/Day 3
Monthly Auditor Pay £1,500
Miscellaneous Expenses 50%
Profit 15%
Other assumptions were that test-and-repair stations would have one lane each and
that the inspection and repair business would be a small part of the overall business (i.e.,
the station would also sell gasoline and do other types of repairs and service). Test-only
stations were assumed to have 4 lanes per station on average.
Since Cairo has no prior experience with I/M and little data exists on the exact
composition of the vehicle fleet in terms of technology, we had to improvise to estimate the
number of each type of repair to expect among failed vehicles. This problem was solved
by using calendar year 1988 repair data from Louisville, Kentucky with the assumption that
the number of vehicle repairs in Louisville could be used to approximate the number of
repairs for each type of repair performed in Cairo. The Louisville data from 1988 includes
many old-technology vehicles similar to those found in Cairo and the frequency of spark
plug changes, idle mixture adjustments, and the like were assumed for Cairo.
The other part of the cost evaluation was to determine the cost of providing
inspection services. We looked at three scenarios: centralized test-only, decentralized test-
and-repair with two different numbers of stations, and a hybrid of the two. A wide array
of assumptions were necessary to conduct this analysis and we are not certain of many of
the costs that were assumed, so these estimates should be considered very rough.
Page 14 Cost of Inspection/Maintenance
-------
Nevertheless, they approximate costs of U.S. basic I/M programs, so we are confident that
these estimates are not misleading.
The costs of centralized and decentralized programs are very different. We made
some assumptions common to both network types. We assumed that the cost per audit
conducted would be about £E60. We assumed that training costs per inspector and per
repair technician would be the same at about £E200 per trainee. We assumed that profit
margins and miscellaneous costs, shown in Table 6, would be the same in both networks,
We also spread investment costs in land and equipment over a five year period. We did not
attempt to adjust monetary figures for inflation or to account for the cost of money, given
the rough nature of this analysis.
The centra]ized, test-only system is characterized by a limited number of high
volume, rapid throughput, production lanes that only test vehicles. This approach is the
most cost efficient because it is able to achieve economies of scale, production style
efficiencies, higher utilization of resources, and greater specialization and expertise. All of
these factors contribute to higher quality and lower costs. Test-only stations typically have
2-6 lanes each depending on the density of the neighborhood; we assumed an average of 4
lanes per station for Cairo. We also assumed that test-only stations would be open 9 hours
per day, 271 days per year. We assumed that these lanes would have a utilization rates on
the' low end of what we typically see. A typical U.S. lane can test 25,000 - 30,000
vehicles per year; we assumed lower figures for Cairo, about 22,000 per year. Despite the
low utilization rates, we assumed that all lanes would be staffed at all times; this is
probably an overestimate of the labor cost because station management would reduce
staffing loads to meet the need. This is the usual practice in the U.S., where some parts of
the day, week, and month are busier than others and staffing is scheduled to meet the need
accordingly. Since we have no data on what such habits would be in Cairo, we assumed
full staffing at all times. We assumed that three inspectors would be needed in each test-
only lane. We assumed that the test equipment would cost about £E27,000 each. We also
assumed a service cost of about £E2,000 per analyzer per year. We assumed that brand
new facilities would be built and that the per facility cost would be about £E850.000 per
year. This assumes that only the cost of leasing the property or carrying the mortgage is
included in the price and that a contractor could resell the property in the end for the original
purchase price. If existing facilities are modified to do high-throughput testing, then lower
per unit costs may be expected. Likewise, if the property is to be purchased by the GOE,
then additional funds would be needed for this purpose. The actual value of the kind of
real estate needed for this purpose was not investigated, nor were construction costs, so
this is merely an educated guess.
The decentralized, test-and-repair system is characterized by a large number of
single bay stations, that test a relatively small number of vehicles each year. Two scenarios
are presented here, one with 150 stations and one with 225 stations, both based on the
analysis contained in the Gallagher report. One key assumption for these two scenarios is
that inspectors do other things when they are not conducting inspections, such as oil
changes, pumping gas, or fixing cars. Thus, in calculating the costs for labor in these
scenarios, only the cost of the time actually used to inspect is figured. If, in fact,
inspectors in these stations are not productively used in other revenue generating roles, then
the labor cost estimates here are underestimates. We assumed that the average time it takes
to conduct a test in a test-and-repair station is 15 minutes. This includes the time it takes to
jockey vehicles in and out of the test bay, enter data into the computer and conduct the test,
and deal with the customer. This is an optimum time and the average may actually be as
much as twice as long, depending on the productivity of the test-and-repair inspectors. We
assumed that in the 150 station scenario, two inspectors would be needed in order to test
the volume of cars. In the 225 station scenario, we assumed stations could make do with
Page 15 Cost of Inspection/Maintenance
-------
only one inspector. The typical test-and-repair station in the U.S. tests about 1000 cars per
year (including retests). These two scenarios will have Cairo test-and-repair stations
testing 4800 vehicles per year in the 150 station scenario and 3,200 test per year in the 225
station scenario. We do not believe the 150 station scenario is feasible. We are concerned
that the 225 station scenario will create convenience difficulties for Cairo motorists. We
assumed that the per unit cost of analyzers would be the average of the two estimates in the
Gallagher report and a service cost of about £E5,000 per year (including calibration gases).
We assumed that facilities would need to be upgraded to handle testing, maintained, and
that an opportunity cost would exist. There is an opportunity cost because presumably the
bays in these stations are currently being used for revenue generating purposes. We have
no hard data on what that revenue might be (in the U.S. it would exceed $50,000 per year
in a good shop). We assumed a modest combined opportunity cost and
maintenance/upgrade cost of about £E70,000 per year.
The hybrid scenario is a combination of the test-only and test-and-repair scenario.
The same costs are assumed for each functional unit. The number of units was estimated
based on the following assumption: all initial tests would occur in the test-only stations,
along with 20% of the retests. All other retests would occur in the test-and-repair stations.
Results
Table 7 shows cost of repairs estimated for the Cairo I/M program. The data from
Louisville includes the listing of the repairs performed (Column 1) and the frequency in the
Louisville sample that vehicles got these repairs (Columns 2 and 3). Note that the grand
total in the "fraction of total" column is greater than 100% because some vehicles got more
than one repair. Each percentage derived from the Louisville sample was multiplied by the
number of failed cars in Cairo to yield the number of repairs in Cairo for each type of repair
performed (Column 4). The parts cost data was provided by the GOE and the labor cost
was estimated based on hourly and monthly labor rates provided by the GOE.
Table 7
Estimated Repair Frequencies and Costs in Cairo
Repairs
Performed
Plug Wires
Air Filter
Spark Plugs
Air Fuel Mix
Distributor, etc.
Dwell/Timing
Check Float
Carb/FI Repair
Idle Speed
Choke
Total
Louisville
Repairs
8,745
8,408
5,372
5,202 .
5,097
4,287
3,423
3,121
2,751
1,811
38,945
Fraction of
Total
22%
22%
14%
13%
13%
11%
9%
8%
7%
5%
124%
Repairs in
Cairo
56,401
54,228
34,647
33,551
32,873
27,649
22,077
20,129
17,743
11,680
251,178
Parts
Cost
£25
£19
£20
£10
£30
Labor
Cost
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
Average Repair Cost Per Vehicle
Total Repair
Costs
£1,692,038
£1,301,466
£866,174
£167,753
£493,100
£138,246
£110,384
£704,516
£88,713
£58,401
£5,620,791
£22
Page 16
Cost of Inspection/Maintenance
-------
To get the total repair cost for each repair performed, we added labor and parts costs for
each repair performed and multiplied these by the numbers of repairs performed in Cairo.
The total repair cost is estimated to be ££5,600,000 for an average repair cost per vehicle of
about £E22. This amount represents the cost of only the repairs listed in Column 1. It
does not include estimates for vehicles that need extensive repairs such as valve jobs,
engine overhauls, or the like. These kinds of repairs, to the extent that they are undertaken,
will increase the average repair cost. It is difficult, however, to attribute such repair costs
entirely to the I/M program because such repairs are inevitable since without them vehicles
would eventually cease to operate.
Table 8 shows the inspection cost summary. We estimate that a centralized, test-
only network would require 50 lanes in 13 stations. The average cost of a test would be
about £E12 and the total annual cost would be about£E8.5 million. The test-and-repair
network would have a per vehicle cost of about £E20 and would have a total annual cost of
about £E14 million. The hybrid system would involve 35 test-only lanes in 9 stations and
80 test-and-repair facilities. The per vehicle cost would be about £E18 and the total annual
cost would come to about £E13 million.
Figure 7 illustrates the total program costs, including both inspection and repair
costs. Obviously, the test-only system is the least expensive approach. In the U.S., test-
only systems typically cost about half of the test-and-repair programs. We assumed that
repair costs would not differ between the two program types, even though improper testing
is more likely in the test-and-repair scenario. This is because we believe improper testing is
most likely in a well enforced system on the retest after repairs. So, the repair expenditure
has been made at that point, but if the repairs were not effective the emission reduction
benefits are lost. Again, we would emphasize that these estimates are very rough and that
actual costs may vary based on a closer analysis of the cost of doing business in Egypt.
Figure 7
Total Cost of VM in Cairo
£E25
£E27
£E27
£E20
£8,576,667
£5,620,791
£12,673,934
£13,488,936
Inspection Costs
£5,620,791
£5,620,791
Repair Costs
£14,016,761
£5,620,791
Centralized
Hybrid
Decentralized Low Decentralized High
Page 17
Cost of Inspection/Maintenance
-------
Table 8
Estimated Inspection Costs and Capacity Needs in Cairo
Network Type
Number of Lanes
Test Volume
Initial Tests Per Station
Retests Per Station
Total Tests Per Station
Tests Per Day
Tests Per Hour
Inspection Labor
Hours Per Day
Inspectors Per Lane
Per Lane/Year
Total
Test Equipment
Per Analyzer
Per Analyzer
Annualized Total
Service
Per Analyzer
Per Analyzer
Total
Oversight
Audits
Audit Days
Auditor Labor
Audit Equipment
Cost Per Audit
Total
Facilities
Stations
Annual Station Costs
Training
Inspectors
Mechanic/Inspectors
Cost of Training
Other
Miscellaneous
Profit
Grand Total
Cost Per Vehicle
Test-Only
50
14,353
7,177
21,530
79
9
9
3
£51,219
£2,560,950
$8,000
£27,160
£271,600
$600
£2,037
£101,850
150
50
£277
£9,023
£60
£9,300
13
£2,121,875
150
500
£132,405
£2,598,990
£779,697
£8,576,667
£12
Test-and-Repair
150
4,784
2,392
7,177
26
3
7
2
£25,118
£3,767,663
$13,000
£44,135
£1,324,050
$1,500
£5,093
£763,875
450
150
£830
£27,070
£60
£27,900
150
£2,138,850
750
£152,775
£4,087,556
£1,226,267
£13,488,936
£19
225
3,190
1,595
4,784
18
2
4
1
£8,373
£1,883,831
$13,000
£44,135
£1,986,075
$ 1 ,500
£5,093
£1,145,813
675
225
£1,245
£40,605
£60
£41,851
225
£3,208,275
1,125
£229,163
£4,247,503
£1,274,251
£14,016,761
£20
Hybrid
35
20,504
1,563
22,067
81
9
9
3
£51,219
£1,792,665
$8,000
£27,160
£190,120
$600
£2,037
£71,295
105
35
£194
£6,316
£60
£6,510
9
£1,485,313
70
£14,259
£1,780,081
£534,024
80
0
6,250
6,250
23
3
6
2
£21,875
£1,750,000
$13,000
£44,135
£706,160
$1,500
£5,093
£407,400
240
80
£443
£14,437
£60
£14,880
80
£1,140,720
500
£101,850
£2,060,505
£618,152
£12,673,934
£18
Page 18
Cost of Inspection/Maintenance
-------
New Vehicle Standards
Introducing new vehicle certification standards is an essential part of any mobile
source pollution control program. As can be seen from the previous discussion, the
proposed I/M program in Cairo will have only modest impact on mobile source emissions
and these benefits are quickly overcome by the growth in vehicles kilometers traveled
(VKT). The impact of requiring all new vehicles to meet U.S. emission standards starting
in model year 1998 was estimated in the analysis that follows. Appendix E contains a
complete listing of U.S. new vehicle standards. Introducing either U.S. or European new
vehicle standards requires a widespread supply of unleaded gasoline. It is essential that the
retail price of unleaded gasoline be set lower than the retail price of leaded gasoline.
Otherwise, motorists will have an incentive to remove their catalytic converters and misfuel
their engines with the cheaper leaded gasoline. This quickly leads to a total loss in
emission reduction benefits of new vehicle technology.
Methodology
To assess the impact of introducing new vehicle standards, we once again used
MOBILES to generate emission factors. A basic premise of this analysis is that new
vehicles sold in Greater Cairo meet U.S. certification standards starting in calendar year
1998. We assumed that all new VKT growth, starting in calendar year 1998, is from
vehicles that meet these standards. Again, the VKT growth-rate assumed throughout this
study is 4.4% per year.
First, we generated emission factors for the new vehicle Cairo fleet. These factors
are shown in Table 9 for calendar years 2000, et seq. The average emission rates of one
year old vehicles are shown in grams per kilometer for the year 2000. For 2002, the
average emissions of vehicles up to 3 years old are shown. For 2005, the average
emission rates of vehicles up to 6 years old are shown, and for 2008 the average emissions
of vehicles up to 9 years old are shown. Note that the average emission rates slowly
increase over time. Despite vastly improved technology, new vehicles do deteriorate over
time, just not as quickly nor as much as old technology vehicles.
This analysis assumes that I/M will be performed on these vehicles. The I/M
program assumed is a centralized two-speed, idle test, as described in the previous section.
The rate of deterioration can be significantly reduced through a high-technology I/M
program. This program could be one of two things: a transient, loaded, mass emission
test like the EVI240 or an on-board diagnostic (OBD) test, if the vehicle is certified to meet
U.S. standards. The OBD system approach is very inexpensive compared to emission
testing.
Given the emission factors in Table 9, we then took all of the new VKT after 1998
and assumed it was generated at the emission rates shown in 2000 and later. We multiplied
VKT by the emission rates to get total metric tons of emissions. These new vehicle
emissions were added to the total tons of emissions for existing technology vehicles in
1998 at the emission rates shown in the table. We assumed that this base level of
emissions is maintained throughout the 10 year time frame. At first glance, this implies that
the vehicle fleet in Cairo is static and that old cars are not dropping out of the fleet. There is
no data available at this point on vehicle scrappage rates, but surely some vehicles are
scrapped in time. The assumption that total emissions of pre-1998 vehicles remain the
same over the 10 year period analyzed covers any old vehicle influx into Cairo from other
parts of Egypt, which is known to occur, and VKT growth among older vehicles (which
may or may not be occurring). These are areas of uncertainty in the analysis that future
data collection should focus on.
Page 19 New Vehicle Standards
-------
Table 9
Emission Factors Assumed for New Vehicles in Cairo
Grams per Kilometer
Year
1998
2000
2002
2005
2008
Total
HC
11.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.2
Exhaust
HC
6.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
CO
61.7
4.3
4.8
5.6
7.4
NOx
4.0
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
Results
Table 10 shows the projected emission levels and reductions from the introduction
of new vehicle emission standards. The emission reductions far exceed that achieved by
the proposed I/M program. By the year 2000, a 15% reduction in total hydrocarbon
emissions is achieved and that reduction grows to 36% by 2008. This reduction will
continue to increase as more and more new technology vehicles are introduced into Egypt.
Further reductions over that assumed for the next 10 years will occur as retirement of old
technology vehicles occurs. Compare this with a maximum 9% reduction in HC emissions
from I/M for the same time period. Carbon monoxide and NOx emissions are reduced by
similar amounts.
Table 10
Impact of Introducing U.S. Emission Standards in Greater Cairo
HC
CO
NOx
2000
1000
Metric
Tons
228
1190
89
Reduced
15%
15%
13%
2002
1000
Metric
Tons
230
1202
91
Reduced
21%
21%
18%
2005
1000
Metric
Tons
233
1226
95
Reduced
30%
29%
25%
2008
1000
Metric
Tons
240
1270
100
Reduced
36%
36%
31%
Figure 8 graphically illustrates the change in emissions over time for each pollutant.
No other practical strategy can achieve as much emission reduction as introducing new
vehicle standards. This strategy is also absolutely essential if emissions growth is to be
actually reduced. Without new vehicle standards, the other strategies in this report are
quickly overcome by VKT growth. Note that Figure 8 shows both total HC and exhaust
HC. The difference between these two is evaporative emissions, which generally represent
about half of the HC emissions in the fleet. New vehicle technology is the only major
option for reducing NOx emissions as well. The I/M program, as discussed previously,
will likely increase NOx slightly.
Page 20
New Vehicle Standards
-------
cfl
C
o
H
o
'C
4—1
OJ
en
T3
3
O
H
O
o
-o
O
en
O
o
CO
I
H
Figure 8
Hydrocarbon Emissions With U.S. New Vehicle Certification Standards
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1996
1998
2000
2002
2005
2008
Carbon Monoxide Emissions With U.S. New Vehicle Certification Standards
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1996
1998
2000
2002
2005
2008
Nitrogen Oxide Emissions With U.S. New Vehicle Certification Standards
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1996
•High Diesel
•With Clean Cars
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Page 21
New Vehicle Standards
-------
Reduced Fuel Volatility
Methodology
Fuel volatility has a significant impact on hydrocarbon emissions. U.S. EPA has
found that gasoline evaporating from vehicles, even those with evaporative emission
controls, are a major source of hydrocarbon emissions, and represent about half of total
HC emissions. EPA has also found that the higher the volatility of gasoline, expressed as
Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) in pounds per square inch, the higher the evaporative
emissions. Evaporative emissions occur in many forms. Fuel vapors are emitted when the
vehicle is being operated as well as when it is "resting," particularly if parked in the hot
sun. Fuel vapors are released from the carburetor, fuel injection system, other engine
components, and the fuel tank. Large quantities of evaporative emissions also are released
during refueling. Wanner ambient temperatures raise the fuel evaporation rates even
further, an obvious concern for Cairo.
We received data from EEAA showing the RVP of Cairo gasoline to be 8.8 psi, on
average. The modeling done thus far assumes this level of volatility. Severely polluted
areas in the U.S. will begin requiring the RVP of gasoline to be 6.7 psi by the year 2000,
This is the limit of lowering fuel volatility without causing driveability or startup problems.
To determine the impact of lower RVP fuel on the Cairo emissions inventory, we
modeled two scenarios: the current Cairo emissions inventory with 8.8 psi fuel and the
same but with a proposed 6.7 psi fuel.
Results
Figure 9 shows that an immediate and dramatic effect on hydrocarbon emissions
could be achieved by lowering the RVP from 8.8 psi to 6.7 psi. Over time, low RVP fuel
will keep hydrocarbon emissions 16% lower than high RVP fuel. This measure represents
probably the easiest and quickest reduction in emissions that can be achieved in Cairo.
Figure 9
Total Hydrocarbon Emissions With Lower Volatility Fuel
400
« 350
H 300
o
"S 250
| 200
•i iso
O
100
50
0
•Total HC
• 6.7 psi RVP
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Page 22
Fuel Volatility
-------
Conclusions and Recommendations
In previous sections of the report, we looked at various emission control measures
by themselves. Here we put the control measures together and show the combined effects.
Note that the order in which the strategies are portrayed has no bearing on the relative
emission reduction benefits. We chose to show each strategy in size of impact order, but
the magnitudes would be the same had we reversed the order. The modeling is exactly the
same as that discussed in previous sections so, there is no need to review that here.
Figure 10 and Table 11 show the combined effect of three measures: U.S.
certification standards (with unleaded fuel), lower RVP gasoline, and I/M. Together, these
strategies will reduce HC and CO emissions by about half, and NOx emissions by about a
third. These reductions would continue to increase into the future as more new technology
vehicles replace old technology vehicles in the Cairo fleet. Clearly, the introduction of new
car standards dwarfs the I/M program. It is the only measure discussed that will actually
stop growth of total emissions for a significant period of time.
Figure 10
Total Hydrocarbon Emissions With Clean Cars, Lower Volatility Fuel, and I/M
400
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Table 11
Impact of Clean Cars, Lower Volatility Fuel, and 1/M
HC
CO
NOx
2000
1000
Metric
Tons
185
1030
99
Of.
to
Reduced
31.%
26%
13%
2002
1000
Metric
Tons
186
997
101
Reduced
36%
35%
18%
2005
1000
Metric
Tons
189
1006
105
Reduced
43%
42%
25%
2008
1000
Metric
Tons
194
1048
111
fij_
Reduced
49%
47%
31%
Page 23
Conclusions and Recommendations
-------
Conclusions
It is clear that Cairo has a severe mobile source air pollution problem. Motor
vehicle emission rates are very high and will increase substantially unless measures are
taken to reduce and prevent mobile source air pollution. While uncertainty exists about the
data provided for this analysis, even if actual emissions are substantially lower they would
still represent an extreme pollution problem. This analysis looked at four key programs for
reducing emissions: lead phase-out, I/M, new vehicle certification standards, and less
volatile fuel. Together these programs can arrest the growth in emissions in Cairo for the
next ten years. Actually reducing emissions (other than lead) over the long term, however,
will require more aggressive approaches.
The most significant air quality problem in Cairo seems to be particulate matter and
airborne lead. Thus, the most important strategy to protect public health is to eliminate, as
quickly as possible, lead in gasoline. The sooner this can be done the better. Elimination
of lead in gasoline is typically followed by commensurate reductions in blood lead levels.
Likewise, continuing the process of converting buses to clean fuels will also help reduce
particulate pollution. •
After particulates, ozone and carbon monoxide pollution appear to be significant.
The best strategy for reducing these pollutants is to introduce new vehicle certification
standards. These standards will bring about reliable and sizable long-term emission
reductions. We recommend the standards introduced be U.S. standards. The next most
effective strategy, and one that may be the quickest and easiest to implement, is to further
reduce the volatility of gasoline to 6.7 psi RVP. Finally, the least effective strategy, but
one that is necessary given the vastness of the problem in Cairo, is an I/M program.
While these strategies bring about major reductions in emissions, overall emission
levels will eventually rise as a result of growth in vehicle kilometers traveled. Other control
strategies such as scrappage programs or transportation control measures will be needed to
keep VKT growth under control.
Recommendations
First and foremost, we strongly recommend accelerating the introduction of
unleaded gasoline in Egypt and that steps be taken immediately to ensure that unleaded gas
is less expensive than leaded gas (either by lowering unleaded prices or, preferably, raising
leaded gas prices). Leaded gasoline should be phased out entirely as soon as possible.
This is the most important heath-related step Egypt can take to control air pollution. Note
that vehicles designed for leaded gasoline can operate on unleaded gasoline without
deleterious effects. Besides the direct health threat posed by lead in gasoline, it also
accelerates deterioration of vehicle engines (old or new), and it destroys the emission
control systems in new technology vehicles. So, even though many vehicles currently
brought into Egypt are computer controlled, fuel-injected vehicles, much of the benefit of
this technology is lost due to lead fouling of the emission control components, especially
the oxygen sensor.
To further reduce particulate emissions, we recommend that the clean fueled fleet
conversion program be continued and extended. We also recommend that Egypt disallow
further importation of light-duty diese-1 cars and trucks. For the existing diesel fleet and
two-stroke engines, we recommend more vigorous enforcement of smoking vehicle
regulations. Our observation was that thSse vehicles were routinely ignored by traffic
police.
Page 24 Conclusions and Recommendations
-------
To control the broad range of mobile source pollution and reduce fuel consumption,
we strongly recommend that by the year 2000, all new vehicles built in Egypt or imported
into Egypt be certified to meet U.S. standards. This does not require a complete phase-out
of leaded gasoline to start, but a lower retail price for unleaded lower than the retail price of
leaded gasoline, and an adequate supply and distribution of unleaded, are essential to
prevent misfueling.
To reduce emissions among the existing vehicles in the fleet, we recommend that
Egypt proceed with implementation of the I/M program using the in-use standards currently
promulgated in the Executive Regulations and revised standards for new vehicles. We find
that this program is practical and realistic for the situation in Greater Cairo, and will have a
positive environmental benefit; however, the I/M program alone does not provide sufficient
emission reductions to adequately address the air quality problem in Cairo. Thus,
additional measures are essential. The program is very cost-effective and will not unduly
burden the Egyptian economy.
We recommend that EEAA focus on collecting data on in-use idle emissions of all
vehicles, and as soon as sufficient data is available promulgate new standards based on
model year and vehicle type. On an interim basis, we recommend that new passenger
vehicles be tested or certified using idle/2500 rpm emission standards of 1% CO and 200
ppm HC. Vehicles imported into Egypt that otherwise meet U.S. or European new vehicle
standards except that catalytic converters are removed may be automatically certified. It is
recommended that vehicles be tested using unleaded gasoline prior to the use of any leaded
gasoline in the vehicle.
In order to improve the accuracy of this analysis, more data and better quality data
are needed. The data needed can be summarized as follows: how many vehicles of what
type and age are driven how many kilometers and at what speed in Greater Cairo while
emitting how much pollution? Appendix F lists the data we recommend be collected in the
future by EEAA or other GOE agencies. Armed with better data, these analyses can be
rerun and refined, along with the control measures put into place to reduce emissions. We
recommend that EEAA pursue collecting data on the mobile source problem.
Page 25 Conclusions and Recommendations
-------
Appendix A
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
-------
Glossary of Abbreviations
ADD U.S. Agency for International Development
CO Carbon monoxide
CO2 Carbon dioxide
EEAA Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency
EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
GOE Government of Egypt
GVW Gross vehicle weight rating
HC Hydrocarbons
1/M Inspection and maintenance
NOx Oxides of nitrogen
OBD Onboard diagnostic system
ppm Parts per million
psi Pounds per square inch
RVP Reid vapor pressure
U.S. United States
VKT Vehicle kilometers traveled
£E Egyptian pound
Appendix A
-------
Glossary of Terms
Centralized I/M Program
Refers to a network design composed of a limited number of high-volume, rapid
throughput, production style test centers which only conduct testing and are usually
operated by a single contractor or government agency.
Decentralized I/M Program
Refers to a network design composed of many different test facilities that usually have
only one test bay and are capable of only basic testing. The configuration of the test
bay generally was designed for repairs rather than high-volume, production style
testing. Decentralized test stations are usually individually owned and operated by
private entities.
Enforcement Compliance Rate
Percentage of motorists complying with vehicle test regulations.
Evaporative Emissions
A substantial portion of the total hydrocarbon emissions emitted from a vehicle come
from unburned fuel vapors released from the gas tank, the fuel inlet, the fuel lines, the
carburetor or fuel injectors, and other components. The emissions may occur in
running, idling and even resting states, and are increased by warm ambient and engine
temperatures. Evaporative emissions also include refueling emissions which occur
when spillage occurs and vapors escape during refueling of the vehicle.
Exhaust Emissions
The emissions from motor vehicles that come from the combustion process. These
emissions include hydrocarbons (HC)5 carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen
(NOx), carbon dioxide (CO2) and other constituents. HC is the result of fuel not
burned in the combustion process. CO results from incomplete fuel combustion, and
high levels usually result from a rich fuel to air mixture. NOx results from the heat of
the combustion process fusing ambient nitrogen and oxygen together.
High Technology Vehicles
Vehicles which are equipped with any number of components designed to reduce or
eliminate exhaust and evaporative emissions, especially computer controlled, closed-
loop, fuel injection engines.
Hybrid I/M Program
Refers to a network composed of both test-only and test-and-repair stations, and
where motorists may either have a choice of which kind of station to go to for testing or
may be required to go to one or the other for the initial test or retest.
EM240
A transient mass emission test conducted by placing the vehicle on a dynamometer and
accelerating and decelerating while following a specified driving trace. Emission
results are reported in grams per mile or kilometer.
New Vehicle Certification Standards
Emission standards fw new vehicles which are used to certify a vehicle model before it
can be initially sold to a customer Standards are established for HC, CO, NOx,
particulates, and evaporative hydrocarbons. See Appendix E.
Appendix A
-------
On Board Diagnostics (OBD)
A technology which allows for efficient analysis of vehicle emissions failures. The
OBD system stores a problem specific trouble code and notifies the driver whenever
any system fails such that certification standards would be exceeded by a certain
amount. A trained technician can retrieve these codes with a scan tool and diagnose the
source of failure.
Ozone
HC and NOx react in the presence of sunlight to form photochemical smog, the
principal ingredient of which is ozone (03).
Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP)
A measure of the volatility of fuel represented in pounds per square inch (psi). It is
determined by the characteristics of the HC molecules formulated during the petroleum
refining process.
Test-and-Repair I/M
Refers to an I/M program design based on a network of facilities which perform both
vehicle inspections and repairs. Test-and-repair programs are always decentralized.
Test-Only I/M
Refers to an I/M program design based on a network of facilities which perform only
vehicle inspections and no repairs. Test-only programs are typically centralized (a
single contractor) but may be decentralized (multiple contractors).
Transient mass emission tests
This refers to a loaded, dynamometer test that uses a driving cycle. Loaded means that
force is applied to the vehicle via a dynamometer and both the engine speed and force
are varied throughout the test while follow a given driving schedule (see IM240).
Exhaust sampling is done through a constant volume sampler which captures the entire
emission sample and dilutes it to reduce the effects of water vapor.
Two-speed Idle Test
A steady-state, raw exhaust test conducted while the vehicle is at idle and also while the
vehicle is revved to 2500 rpm. Emission results are reported in % CO and ppm HC.
Waivers
A waiver is issued to motorists who have failed the vehicle emissions test after repair
and has spent a minimum amount of money attempting repairs and has met other criteria
as well. The waiver rate is expressed as a percentage of failed vehicles that receive
waivers.
Appendix A
-------
Appendix B
Phase 1 Presentation
-------
PHASE I
EPA ANALYSIS
VEHICLE EMISSION TEST
AND TUNE PROGRAM
PRESENTED BY
Nyaneba Nkrumah
Baddy Poiovick
and
• Gene Tierney
National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory
Office of Mobile Sources
Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
REPORTED CAIRO REGISTRATION MIX
Fraction of Fleet
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
25 21 23 22 21 20 ]» 18 17 16 15 14 13 1Z 11 1(1 9 8 7 6 S 4 3 2 1
Vehicle Age
Caffft Air Improvement Project
-------
COMPARISON OF USA vs. CAIRO
REGISTRATION MIX
Fraction of Fleet
6%
4%
2%
0%
US Mil
Cairo Mix
25 24 23 22 21 2O 19 IS 17 IB 15 14 13 12 11 10 V S 7 A 5 4 3 2 1
Vehicle Age
Cairo Air Improvement Pro.jcct
ASSUMED REGISTRATION MIX
FOR CAIRO
Fraction of Fleet
8%
25 24 23 22 21 20 IV IX 17 16 IS 14 13 12 11 111 V * 7 * 5 4
Vehicle Age
Cairo Air Improvement Project
-------
VEHICLE MIX IN CAIRO
1,250,000
825,000
75,000
•••• ^^^ 12,500
Cars/T«xis Heavy Lighl Trucks Taxis Light Di«els Motnrcydes Total
Diesels
Cairo Air Improvement Project
ANNUAL VEHICLE KILOMETERS
TRAVELED BY VEHICLE TYPE
60,000
^^H 50,1)00 50,000
III
30,000
12.000
4,000
Lighl Trucks Heav^ Taxis Ljght Diesels Cars Motorcycles
Diesels
Cairo.Air Improvement Project
-------
VEHICLE KILOMETERS TRAVELED
IN CAIRO
Millions of Kilometers Traveled
35
4.4% Growth Rate
JO
25
20
15
10
5
1W6 1997 1998 1W9
20O1 1002 1MI3 2IKM 2005 2WH, 2007 2008
Calendar Ytar
Cairo Air Improvement Project
OTHER ASSUMPTIONS USED IN
EMISSION ANALYSIS
Fuel Characteristics
O ASTM Class A
O Reid Vapor Pressure: 8.8 psi
Ambient Summer Temperatures
O 25°C
O 37°C
Average Vehicle Speed
O 24 kilometers/hour
Cairo Air iQiprovemeat Project
-------
MOBILE SOURCE POLLUTION
CONTROL IS A THREE PART STRATEGY
Inspection/Maintenance
Clean
Fuels
Clean
New Cars
Cairo Air Improvement Project
HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
IN GREATER CAIRO
OOOs Metric Tons
400
350
300
250
200
ISO
100
50
•TiKalHC
• Exhaust HC
0
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Vtar
2005
2008
::ufSiAiT Improvement Project
-------
CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS
IN GREATER CAIRO
OOOs Metric Tons
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
OXIDE OF NITROGEN EMISSIONS
IN GREATER CAIRO
OOOs Metric Tons
IfiO
140
120
100
• so
60
40
20
1996
^—High Diesel
1 *^ Low Diesel
199)
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
-------
DECENTRALIZED I/M
EMISSION REDUCTIONS
25%
20%
19S
_ „-- - ~*" " ~
f
f
f
f
||_ m ^MM* m**^ ^M^ "^"
f 1*
S 2000 2002 :
Calendar Vear
— — Exhaust HC
_ - - eo
.905 2M
)8
Cairo Air Jmprovemtnt Project
CENTRALIZED I/M
EMISSION REDUCTIONS
10%
5%
0%
19*
- * *"
.-'
f
*
0
9
m
I
,' ^
Z^^^
» 2000 2002
Calendar Year
Total HC
^ — Exhaust HC
^^^ ^^M ^^^ ^^^ ^
2005 20
OS
Cairo Air Improvement Project
-------
IMPACT OF I/M NETWORK TYPE ON
TOTAL HC EMISSION REDUCTIONS
10%
2%
Centralized
Decentralized
1998
2000
2002
Calendar Year
2005
200S
Cairo Air Improvement Project
IMPACT OF I/M NETWORK TYPE ON
CO EMISSION REDUCTIONS
1998
2000
2002
Calendar Year
20(15
200)
'.'airo Air&D(U:oveiu«nt Project
-------
IMPACT OF MOTORIST COMPLIANCE ON
I/M EMISSION REDUCTIONS
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
1998
Carbon Monoxide
80% Compliance
Exhaust Hydrocarbons
2000
2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
IMPACT OF WAIVERS ON
I/M EMISSION REDUCTIONS
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
s%
0%
Carbon Monoxide
20% Waivers
Exhaust Hydrocarbons
2000
2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
-------
IMPACT OF LOW COMPLIANCE & HIGH
WAIVERS ON l/M EMISSION REDUCTIONS
40% .
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
95% Complia
Carbon Monoxide
80% Compliance/20% Waivers
• - ^ Exhaust Hydrocarbons
1998
2000
2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
EXHAUST HYDROCARBON
EMISSIONS WITH TEST-ONLY I/M
OOOs Metric Tons
200
ISO
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
-------
CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS
WITH TEST-ONLY l/M
OOOs Metric Tons
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
200S
Cairo Air Improvement Project
HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
WITH CLEAN CARS
OOOs Metric Tons
400
3SO
300
250
200
150
100
SO
1996
Exhaust HC
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
200S
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
-------
CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS
WITH CLEAN CARS
OOOs Metric Tons
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
OXIDE OF NITROGEN EMISSIONS
WITH CLEAN CARS
OOOs Metric Tons
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1996
-High Diesel
-With Clean Cars
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
-------
IMPACT OF LOWER RVP FUEL ON
HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
OOOs Metric Tons
400
3SO
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1996
—Total HC
^—6.7 psi RVP
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
TOTAL HC EMISSIONS WITH
CLEAN CARS, CLEAN FUEL, AND I/M
OOOs Metric Tons
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
Total HC.
Add Clean Cars
Add Clean Fuel
Addl/M
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
-------
CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS WITH
CLEAN CARS AND I/M
OOOs Metric Tons
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
—With Clean Cars
1996
1998
2000 2002
Calendar Year
2005
2008
Cairo Air Improvement Project
CAIRO REPAIR COST ANALYSIS
Repairs
Performed
Plug Wires
Air Filter
Spark Plugs
Air Fuel Mix
Distributor, etc.
Dwell/Timing
Check Float
Carb/FI Repair
Idle Speed
Choke
Total
Louisville
Repairs
8,745
8,408
5,372
5,202
u_ 5,097
4,287
Fraction of
Total
22%
22%
14%
13%
13%
11%
3,423 9%
3,121
2,75!
... 1,811
38,945
8%
7%
5%
124%
Repairs In:
Cairo j
56,40 i "7
54,228 j
34,647 !
33,551 j
32,873 j
27,649 i
22,077 !
20,129
17,743 [
11,680 i
251,178 j
Parts j
Cost i
£25 !
£19
£20
i
£10 j
1
£30 j
i
i
1
I Average Repair Cost
Labor Cost
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
£5
Per Vehicle
i Total Repair
Costs
£1,692,038
£1,301,466
£866,174
£167,753
£493,100
£138,246
£110,384
£704,516
£88,713
£58,401
is, 6 20)791
i £22
Cairo Air Improvement Project
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INSPECTION COST ANALYSIS
Network Type
Number of Lanes
Test Volume
Initial Tests Per Station
Retests Per Station
Total Tests Per Station
Tests Per Day
Tests Per Hour
Inspection Labor
Hours Per Day
Inspectors Per Lane
Pet Lane/Year
Total
Test Equipment
Per Analyzer
Per Analyzer
Aonualized Total
Service
Per Analyzer
Per Analyzer
Total
Test-Only
50
14,353
7,177
21,530
79
9
9
3
£51,219
£2,560,950
$8,000
£27,160
£271,600
$600
£2,037
£101,850
Tesl-and-Repair
150
4,784
2,392
7,177
26
3
7
2
£25,118
£3,767,663
$13,000
£44,135
£1,324,050
225
3,190
1,595
4,784
IS
2
4
1
£8,373
£1,883,831
$13.000
£44,135
£ 1, 986,075
!
11,500
£5,093
£763,875
$1,500
£5,093
£1,145,813
Hybrid
35
20,504
1,563
22,067
SI
9
9
3
£51,219
£1,792,665
$8,000
£27,160
£190,120
$600
£2,037
£71.295
80
0
6,250
6,250
23
3
6
2
£21,875
£1,750,000
$13,000
£44,135
£706,160
$1,500
£5,093
£407,400
Cairo Air Improvement Project
INSPECTION COST ANALYSIS
Network Type
Number of Lanes
Oversight
Audits
Audit Days
Auditor Labor
Audit Equipment
Cost Per Audit
Total
Facilities
Stations
Annual Station Costs
Training
Inspectors
Mechaniu/Inspeolors
Cost of Training
Other
Miscellaneous
Profit
Grand Total
Cost Per Vehicle
Test-Only
so
151)
so
£277
£SM)23
£60
£9.3
13
£2,121,873
150
Sim
£132,405
£2,59S,1«(>
FlVi.ffil
£S,576,6(,7
£12
Tesl-and-Rtpair
151)
4511
150
£K30
£27,1170
£61)
£27,91 X)
151)
£2,138,1)51)
751)
£152.775
£4,OR7,55fi
£1,226,267
£13,4«8,y36
£W
225
675
225
£1.245
£4<(,S05
Ml
£41,851
225
£3,2118,275
1,125
£229.163
£4.247,5(13
£1.274.251
£14,016,761
£21)
Hybrid
35
1(15
35
S194
£f,..llfi
irtl
£6,510
9
£1,485,313
70
1 14,25!)
£1,7K(M18I
£534,024
80
241)
Sit
£443
£14,437
£60
£14,881)
SO
£1,140,72(1
5
£101,850
£2.060,5(15
£618,152
£12,673,934
£1K
Cairo Air Improvement Project
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TOTAL I/M PROGRAM COSTS
£E15
£E20
£8,576,667
£5,620,791
£12,673
934
£K17 £E27
113,488,936
Inspection Costs]
£5,620,791
£5,620,791
| Repair |
£14,016,761
£5,620,791
Centralized Hybrid Decentralized Decentralized
Low High
Cairo Air Improvement Project
COST ANALYSIS ASSUMPTIONS
Fleet Assumptions
O Vehicles in I/M 717,650
O Failure Rate 35%
O Retest Fraction 50%
O Rate of Growth 4,4%
Labor
O Hourly Labor Rate £E 7
O Work Days/Year 271
O Work Hours/Day 9
O Work Hours/Year . 2439
Oversight
O Audits Per Lane 3
O Audits/Day 3
O Auditor Pay £E 1,500
Other
O £E per Dollar 3.395
O Minutes Per Test 15
O Misc. Expenses 50%
O Profit 15%
Cairo Air Improvement Project
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Appendix C
MOBILES Users Guide
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Appendix D
MOBILES Output Files
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Appendix E
U.S. Motor Vehicle Emission Standards
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Appendix F
Future Data Collection
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Future Data Collection
In order to find out how many vehicles of what type and age are driven how many
kilometers and at what speed in Greater Cairo while emitting how much pollution, EEAA
will need to set up a data collection program that includes agreements with other GOE
agencies, such as the Ministry of Transportation.
The primary source of data in the future can be the I/M program. We recommend
that the data collected in that program be kept and used to characterize the fleet. The key
data items to collect as part of the I/M program are:
Make
Model
Model Year
Odometer Reading
Vehicle Identification Number
License Plate Number
Vehicle Type
Passenger car All weights
Light-duty truck Under 6,500 pounds GVWR
Medium-duty truck Between 6,500 and 8,500 pounds GVWR
Heavy-duty truck Over 8,500 pounds GVWR
Gross Vehicle Weight Rating
Engine Displacement
Fuel Type (Gasoline, Diesel, Other)
Date of Test
These data will provide part of the answer to the question for some vehicles: how many
vehicles of what type and age are driven how many miles. However, since not all Cairo
vehicles will be subject to the I/M program, other means are needed to collect data on the
non-I/M vehicles. We recommend that EEAA work with the Ministry of Transportation to
obtain copies on a regular basis of the electronic data base containing vehicle registration
information. In the U.S., this is typically done on a monthly basis (just vehicles that
registered in the last month). This will provide information on the number of vehicles of
which type and age, but not their mileage. Surveys will be necessary to obtain mileage
information on these vehicles, with particular attention paid to the question of how much
truck mileage is actually accrued in Cairo. A related question to pursue is how much VKT
is accumulated in Greater Cairo by vehicles registered in other Governorates.
The other part of the question that remains unanswered is "while emitting how
much pollution?" In order to establish these data, EEAA will need a mechanism to recruit
vehicles to the Technical Center set up as part of the I/M program, and to conduct EVI240
tests on them. A random, representative sample covering all vehicle types and ages is
needed. As this data is collected, EEAA can substitute the emission factors in the MOBILE
model with local emission factors and thereby characterize local emissions more accurately.
This issue will be addressed in more detail in the Phase II report.
Finally, data is needed on vehicle speeds. Again, representative sampling is needed
here. We recommend that EEAA or another GOE agency measure speed on various road
types during all times of the day (especially during commuting periods) on different days of
the week, and during different driving seasons (if there are such in Cairo).
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