EPA-910/9-87-175
AIR QUALITY MODELING ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL

   POINT SOURCES IN EVERETT, WASHINGTON
             PREPARED FOR

           MR. ROBERT WILSON
   U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
           SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
              MARCH, 1988
                       Environmental
                      Consultants

                      21907 64th Avenue, W.
                      Suite 230
                      Mountlake Terrace, WA 98043
                      (206) 778-5003
                      A TIC Company

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                  AIR QUALITY MODELING ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL

                      POINT SOURCES IN EVERETT,  WASHINGTON
INTRODUCTION
TRC Environmental  Consultants  was  retained by the Region 10 office of the U.S.
Environmental  Protection Agency to conduct an air quality dispersion modeling
study of  industrial  point sources  in Everett, Washington.   The purposes of the
modeling  study were 1)  to check  the  adequacy  of  commitments  in  the  State
Implementation Plan which  were designed  to  maintain compliance  with ambient
standards,  and 2)  to  determine whether the  air  quality monitoring station in
Everett is  in  a suitable  location.

Maximum  allowable  emissions  from  the  Scott  Paper  Company  and  Weyerhaeuser
Company  pulp  and  paper  mills  were  obtained from  Washington Department  of
Ecology.   These emissions  were evaluated using  EPA  models  and meteorological
records from a nearby  air quality monitoring station, Sea-Tac Airport, and the
Washington  upper-air monitoring station  at Quillayute Airport.


MODELS USED
TRC was directed  to use  three dispersion models from the UNAMAP Version 6 model
series:   ISCST (Version 86322),  COMPLEX-1 (Version 86064),  and SHORTZ (Version
82326).   In each  case,  the model  is  the latest available version of the model.

The  Guideline on Air Quality Models  (Environmental  Protection Agency.  1986a)
states  that  the  Industrial Source  Complex  (Environmental  Protection Agency,
1986b)  model  is  appropriate  for use  in rural  or urban  areas with flat or
rolling  terrain.   It is not  intended to  be used to estimate concentrations at
locations which are higher than  the stack being modeled.   ISC can account for
building  downwash and  for  settling  and dry  deposition  of  particulate matter.
ISC assumes that  plume  elevation  is  unaffected by terrain, so that as the plume
passes over  terrain higher than the stack base elevation, the distance between
the plume centerline  and a receptor  is reduced.  However, if terrain elevations
greater  than any stack height are entered into ISC,  the receptor elevation is
automatically set  to  0.005 meters below  stack  height  when  the ISC  model
computes  the  contribution  from that  stack.  It should be noted that this height
may be much lower than  the plume  centerline height  because of plume rise.

COMPLEX-1 is  the  recommended second-level screening model for rural areas with
complex  terrain.   Complex terrain is  defined as an area where terrain exceeds
the height of the stack being modeled.  COMPLEX-1 uses the same plume impaction
algorithm that   EPA's  VALLEY  model  (Burt,   1977)  uses,  wherein the  plume
centerline is not allowed  to come within  10 meters  of elevated  terrain.

The Guidelines specify the use of SHORTZ  (Bjorklund and Bowers, 1982) in urban
areas with complex terrain.   Despite the presence  of buildings  and substantial

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population,  the  area is classified  as  rural because of  the  large fraction of
the surrounding area which is rural  or covered by water.  Although not intended
for rural  areas,  SHORTZ was used  in this evaluation because  it has been used
historically in the Puget Sound area.

SHORTZ  can account  for  settling  and dry deposition of particulate matter.  The
primary difference  between SHORTZ  and ISC is the treatment of terrain effects:
ISC will not allow  receptors with  heights greater than the stack height, while
SHORTZ  will.   SHORTZ allows the plume  to directly  "impact"  the terrain, such
that  receptor  can be placed  right  at  the  plume centerline.    For any  terrain
height  equal  to  or greater  than  the  plume  centerline  height,  the vertical
separation between  plume centerline  and  receptor  is  assumed  to be zero.
Another significant difference between SHORTZ  and ISC is in  the treatment of
downwash.   Both  models  have the capability  to  treat "stack-tip" downwash, but
only  ISC  evaluates the  effects  of building  wakes  on  plume  heights.   In
accordance with  the SHORTZ users guide,  Froude numbers were evaluated for each
source  and stack radii were adjusted as necessary.


DATA  SOURCES
 TRC  obtained hourly  wind speed and  direction data  for  the period  from 1982
 through  1986,  inclusive,  from an air quality  monitoring  station maintained by
 the  Puget  Sound Air Pollution Control Agency (PSAPCA) in Everett.  The station
 is  located at 2730 Colby Avenue,  on  the roof of  the Medical Dental Building.
 Wind data  are collected by instruments located 118 feet above the ground, which
 is  125  feet above mean sea level.   Thus, the  wind sensors  are located a total
 of  243 feet above mean sea level.

 The   development  of  a suitable  meteorological  data  base  for the  modeling
 required TRC to incorporate  Everett  wind data with  other  meteorological data
 from Sea-Tac Airport  and the  airport at Quillayute, Washington.

 The  first  step  in creating the 1982-1986 meteorological data set was to run the
 RAMMET  preprocessor  (Turner  and  Novak,  1978)  for the  5 years  using surface
 meteorological  data collected at  Sea-Tac  and upper  air  data from Quillayute.
 Seattle  climatological  values (Holzworth,  1972)  were  substituted  for missing
 mixing height values.

 The  second step was  to  create a  meteorological  data base  using Everett wind
 speed and  direction  data  with the concurrent Sea-Tac ceiling  heights,  cloud
 cover and  temperature, and the Quillayute upper  air data.  During the creation
 of  this  data base,  Everett  wind  speeds were scaled  down  from the  118 foot
 sensor height to a height of  10 meters using the airport  stabilities determined
 in step  1  and the stability-dependent exponential  scaling  formula  used in the
RAMMET preprocessor.   Airport wind speed and direction  data were  substituted
where Everett data  were missing.   This data base  was then  input to the RAMMET
preprocessor to create a sequential meteorological data base.

A wind   rose  plotted with  the  1982  wind  data  produced by  this  process  is
presented  in Figure 1.  It differs slightly from the wind rose for the Medical

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                                   N
                                                                             E
                                               Calms  Redistributed
                                               Peak Direction = SE
                                               Peak Frequency =  20.9'
FIGURE 1: 1982 WIND ROSE FROM THE MEDICAL-DENTAL BUILDING IN  EVERETT

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 Dental  Building  monitoring station  published by  PSAPCA  in its  1982 annual
 monitoring summary because the RAMMET  preprocessor  replaces calm periods with
 meteorological  conditions which are consistent with those occurring before  and
 after the  calm.    Figure 2 displays  the frequency  of occurrence  of the  six
 Pasquill-Gifford  stability classes  for  the 1982 data set.

 The same meteorological  data  were  used in each of the three models, with  one
 exception.    Consistent  with  historical  precedent  (Bowers  et.al.,  1982),  all
 occurrences of  F-stability were replaced with E-stability when running SHORTZ.

 The stack parameters and  sulfur dioxide  and  particulate matter emission  rates
 displayed in Table 1 for the Scott and Weyerhaeuser mills were provided by  the
 Washington Department  of  Ecology  (Washington Department  of  Ecology, 1987).
 Although the maximum allowable emissions under current permit conditions were
 modeled,  actual  emissions  were  considerably lower in  1985 and 1986.   In  the
 final  section  of  this  report,  the  modeling  results are scaled  down  to
 approximate actual operating conditions.

 It  should be  noted that the  fuels  used  in the  power  boilers  vary.    At
 Weyerhaeuser, power boiler #1 burned residual oil and  natural gas while power
 boiler  #2 burned natural  gas.  At  Scott,  power boilers 1-5 burned hogfuel  but
 power boilers 6-9 burned oil and natural gas.


 APPROACH
 Because  Port  Gardner Bay and rural land use constitute a large fraction of the
 land use in the Everett  area,  TRC modeled the Everett industrial sources with
 the  rural  model option.   Thus,  any additional dispersion provided by potential
 heat island effects  from Everett's central business district was not accounted
 for  in the modeling.

 The  study  area is  considered  complex terrain  because  the elevation  of many
 locations  in  the  Everett area exceed  the height  of  the stacks  at Scott and
 Weyerhaeuser.   The results  of the ISC model are appropriate only for locations
 where the  ground elevation is lower than the stack height being modeled.

 The  modeling was performed  in accordance  with EPA's Guidelines for Air Quality
 Models  (U.S.   Environmental Protection  Agency,  1986).    When  available,  the
 regulatory default   options  were used   for  each  model.     These  included
 consideration  of  stack  downwash, buoyancy  induced  dispersion,  and  default
 vertical potential  temperature  gradients  and  wind profile exponents.   EPA's
 method of  adjusting  for calm periods was used in all cases.

 TRC's modeling  study began  with a grid of receptors, spaced 1-kilometer apart,
bounded  by  UTM  coordinates  556-561,  and  5310-5325.    In  terms  of  local
 geography,  this grid  ranged from the Everett Golf and Country Club on the south
 to  north  of  Marysville,  and  from just  west  of  the  Everett jetty  to  the
 Snohomish  River east of  Everett.   Ground elevations were entered in the models
based on USGS maps of the area.  A contour map based on elevations entered at

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FIGURE 2: FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF STABILITY CLASSES IN 1982

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      TABLE 1:  SUMMARY OF WEYERHAEUSER AND SCOTT EMISSION SOURCES
Source
                        EMISSIONS
                    Permitted (Actual)1
                      (grams/second)
                          TEMP.   EXIT   STACK   STACK
                                 SPEED   DIAM.   HEIGHT
                          (°K)  (m/sec)   (m)     (m)
PM-10
S02

Weyerhaeuser :
Recovery Boiler
Power Boil. # 1
Power Boil. # 2
Scott:
Recovery Boiler
Power Boil. 1-52
Power Boil. 6-9 /
•^J

10.6
3.2
6.1

6.2
4.1
2.6

(8
(0
(0

(1
(4
(0

.1)
.8)
.4)

.0)
.1)
.3)

59.9 (17
36.6 (11
69.3 (4.

35.1 (15
46.1 (0
29.5 (3

.3)
.5)
2)

.7)
• 1)
.8)

339 10.3 3.7 85
422 11.5 1.5 36
455 23.4 1.5 36

299 18.5 1.8 61
455 4.5 4.1 50
422 6.2 1.8 31

.3
.6
.0

.6
.3
.1
  The actual emission rates displayed are the higher of the  actual  emission
  rates reported for 1985 and 1986.

  Power boilers 1-5 burn hog fuel;  the other power boilers at  Scott and
  Weyerhaeuser burn fossil fuels.

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1-kilometer intervals  is  displayed as Figure 3.  Although the city of Everett
is situated on a plateau well above  sea  level  and  the Snohomish River Valley,
Figure 3 indicates that much higher hills exist to the south of the Scott Paper
mill and to the north on the Tulalip  Reservation.

In  the  first round  of  modeling, each  of  the three  models  was  run  using
sequential hourly meteorological  data  for  1982 using this 1-kilometer spaced
grid of receptors.  Calendar year  1982 was selected as a typical year for local
meteorology.    The output from  each  of the  three  models  was   examined  to
determine the  geographic  areas  with the highest annual,  24-hour and 3-hour S02
concentrations for further evaluation with  all  5 years of meteorological data.
Figure 3 also displays the  receptors  evaluated during this phase, the locations
of  the  Scott  ("S")   and Weyerhaeuser  ("W")  mills,  and  the  location of  the
Medical-Dental Building monitor  ("M").

In the second round,  a more tightly spaced group of receptors was selected for
each  model and  for  each  area  with peak  concentrations.   In addition,  ten
discrete receptors were added to  account for local hospitals,  schools  and the
PSAPCA monitoring station  at the Medical-Dental Building.  ISCST, COMPLEX-1 and
SHORTZ were each run with  this more  refined  group  of receptors  for five years
of sequential  hourly  meteorological data, from  1982 through 1986.   The highest
annual,  24-hour, and 3-hour S02  and highest  annual and  24-hour  particulate
matter concentrations were  noted for  each year for each of the models.

In the  final  round of  modeling,  the  days in which the highest  24-hour and 3-
hour  concentrations   occurred   were   modeled  to  determine  emission  source
contributions  and  the  meteorological   conditions  which  produced  the  peak
concentrations.

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            YMAX - 325
                                              * = Receptor
                                   YMIN » 310
FIGURE  3:  STUDY AREA GROUND ELEVATION  (FEET ABOVE MSL)

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RESULTS
In  this section,  the results  of each  of the  modeling rounds  is discussed,
followed  by  a  discussion  of   the  implications  of  using maximum  permitted
emission rates,  rather than actual emission rates.  Next, a comparison is made
between  the  model predictions  and the measured concentrations  in the Everett
area.    Finally,  the meteorological  conditions  which  produced  the  highest
concentrations are identified for  each of  the three models.
Large Grid  (1982")
The  results  of the large  grid modeling for 1982 are depicted in Figures 4-12.
Figures  4-6  display the  annual average, 2nd-highest 24-hour  average  and 2nd-
highest  3-hour average S02 concentrations,  respectively, using ISCST.   Figures
5 and  6  display the second highest concentrations that occurred during 1982 at
each receptor;  it is  important to note that these concentrations did not occur
at the same  time  for all  locations.

Figures  4-6   show that ISCST  calculates areas  of high  concentrations  in the
vicinity of  Legion Park  southwest of  Weyerhaeuser and  in the Rucker Hill area
south  of Scott Paper.   It should be noted that Legion  Park  is  about  the same
elevation  as  the shortest  two of  the three Weyerhaeuser stacks;  the source
contributions displayed later  in Table 5 indicate that the high concentrations
result from  these short  stacks.   An area of relatively high S02 concentration
also appears just northwest of Scott Paper, near the south  end of the jetty.
Although the predominance of  southeasterly winds  (see Figure 1) would suggest
that higher  annual average  concentrations would be  expected  to  the northwest,
it seems likely that only building downwash could bring  the plume down so close
to the sources.

To verify a   suspicion  that  ISCST's  building downwash was responsible for some
of   the  high  concentrations  observed  very  near  the  Scott   and  Weyerhaeuser
plants,  ISCST was run again with 1982  data  but  without the  building downwash
employed.  Figures A-l, A-2 and A-3 in  the appendix  indicate  that the areas of
higher  concentration  near Scott and Weyerhaeuser disappear  when  the  downwash
option is  not employed (i.e.,  when  building dimensions  are not entered).  The
effect holds for  all three averaging times but is more dramatic  for the 24-hour
and  3-hour averaging times.

Downwash has little effect  on concentrations  on farther from the plants.  The
highest  distant  concentrations  are observed  at  the  higher  terrain  on the
Tulalip  reservation  west  of  Marysville;  slightly  lower concentrations are
calculated for the higher terrain to the south and east  of Scott.

Figures  7-9  display the  results  from  the COMPLEX-1 model.   COMPLEX-1 does not
produce  the  higher concentrations adjacent  to  the plants,  probably because it
does not  consider  building   downwash.     COMPLEX-1 calculates  its  highest
concentrations  just north of Priest  Point on  the Tulalip reservation.  Higher

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                YMAX = 325000
                                  YMIN = 310000
FIGURE k: ANNUAL AVERAGE S02 CONCENTRATIONS WITH ISCST  (ug/m3)
                                 10

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                      YMAX = 325000
                                         YMIN = 310000
FIGURE 5:  2nd HIGHEST 24-HOUR AVERAGE S02 CONCENTRATIONS WITH  ISCST (ug/m3)
                                       11

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                    YMAX = 325000

                                       YMIN = 310000
FIGURE 6: 2nd  HIGH 3-HOUR AVERAGE  S02  CONCENTRATIONS ^ITH  ISCST (ug/m3)
                                     12

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                  YMAX - 325
                                      YMIN = 310
FIGURE 7: ANNUAL AVERAGE S02 CONCENTRATIONS WITH  COMPLEX-1 (ug/m3)
                                  13

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                        YMAX = 325
                                             YMIN = 310
FIGURE 8: 2nd HIGHEST 24-HOUR AVERAGE S02 CONCENTRATIONS WITH  COMPLEX-1 (ug/m3)
                                         14

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                        YMAX = 325
                                            YMIN = 310
FIGURE 9: 2nd HIGHEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE S02 CONCENTRATIONS  WITH COMPLEX-1 (ug/m3)
                                        15

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concentrations to the south of Scott generally occurred farther south than with
ISCST, in the general area of the Everett Golf and Country Club.

Although  the  areas  of  higher  concentrations  generally  occurred in  the same
places as with ISCST (without downwash), concentrations calculated by COMPLEX-1
were  somewhat  higher.    This  is not  surprising, in  that COMPLEX-1 recognizes
terrain  higher than  stack height  and  ISCST  does not.    This means  that an
elevated receptor can come closer to  the plume centerlines with COMPLEX-1 than
with ISCST.

Figures 10-12 display the results of the SHORTZ modeling.  SHORTZ produced peak
concentrations to  the north  at the same  location as  COMPLEX-1 did, just north
of  Priest  Point.   SHORTZ also  produced an area  of high  concentration west of
Scott  near the  south  end of  the  jetty,  and  another  in  Everett's  central
business  district.   For  shorter  averaging  periods,  maximum concentrations
occurred  south and  southeast of Scott,  extending from  the  central  business
district over to the Rucker Hill area.

Except for  the peak  concentrations  at Legion Park resulting from downwash from
Weyerhaeuser stacks,  SHORTZ  consistently produced  the  highest concentrations.
Without downwash, ISCST consistently calculated the lowest concentrations.  All
three models  (ignoring  the downwash condition)  calculated  the highest 24-hour
and 3-hour  S02 concentrations south of Scott but the highest annual averages on
the Tulalip reservation.


Discrete Receptor Grid (1982-1986)
Based   on  the  isopleths  produced  with  a   large   grid  spacing  and  1982
meteorological  data,  TRC produced a  denser grouping of  receptors  at areas of
high  concentration for  each  model  and  averaging period.    This  new  set of
receptors  was modeled  using  the  same  emission  rates  (the  maximum allowable
under state law) and stack parameters as before, but with 5 years of sequential
hourly  meteorological  data.   The receptor  grids  are  displayed as Figures A-4,
A-5 and A-6 in the appendix.

Table 2 summarizes the  maximum concentrations  (in ug/m^)  produced by the ISCST
modeling.    Maximum  concentrations   occur at  the   same  location  with  both
pollutants: annual average concentrations are highest at the PSAPCA monitor and
shorter-term  concentrations are  highest  at  or  near Legion  Park.   As noted
before, Legion  Park  is higher than the  lower  two Weyerhaeuser stacks so ISCST
automatically reduces the elevation at these receptors to these heights  as each
stack is  evaluated.   Similarly,  the  PSAPCA monitor is higher than all of the
Scott   sources,  so  it  is  also  reduced  to   stack  height  as  each stack is
evaluated.

Table 2 indicates  that  with maximum  allowable  emissions,  ISCST (with downwash)
produces annual S02 concentrations which are generally slightly higher than the
ambient standard;  predicted maximum concentrations for the  24-hour and 3-hour
averaging periods are more than twice the ambient standards.
                                        16

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                 YMAX = 325000
                                               -.  x
                                   YMIN = 310000
FIGURE 10:  ANNUAL AVERAGE S02  CONCENTRATIONS WITH  SHORTZ (ug/m3)
                                  17

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                        YMAX = 325000
                                          YMIN = 310000
FIGURE 11: 2nd HIGHEST 24-HOUR AVERAGE  S02  CONCENTRATIONS WITH SHORTZ (ug/m3)
                                        18

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                     YMAX = 325000
                                        YMIN = 310000
FIGURE  12:  2nd HIGH 3-HOUR AVERAGE S02 CONCENTRATIONS WITH SHORTZ (ug/m3)
                                      19

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TABLE 2: SUMMARY OF

1982
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1983
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1984
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
24- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1985
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
24 -HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1986
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
24- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
FIVE-YEAR HIGH
3- HOUR AVERAGE
(1983) HIGHEST
(1986) 2nd-HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
(1982) HIGHEST
(1983) 2nd-HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
1985 HIGHEST
LOCATION DAY


LEGION PK 229
LEGION PK 257

LEGION PK 260
LEGION PK 286C

MONITOR


LEGION PK 206
LEGION PK 107

LEGION PK 107
LEGION PK 206

MONITOR


EO LEGION 164
LEGION PK 213

LEGION PK 276C
LEGION PK 33

MONITOR


LEGION PK 240
LEGION PK 204

LEGION PK 1C
LEGION PK 182

MONITOR


LEGION PK 136
LEGION PK 135

LEGION PK 343
LEGION PK 285

MONITOR


LEGION PK 206
LEGION PK 135

LEGION PK 260
LEGION PK 206
MONITOR
HOUR S02 STANDARD


3 4976
6 3925

916
708

89


3 5516
6 3796

775
753

84


3 4571
3 3608

750
681

79


3 4057
3 3152

689
683

97


3 4325
3 4251

877
705

89


3 5516
3 4251

916
753
97



1300


365

80



1300


365

80



1300


365

80



1300


365

80



1300


365

30



1300


365
an
ISCST RESULTS
LOCATION DAY PM10 STANDARD





LEGION PK 260 81
LEGION PK 286 62 150

MONITOR 11 50





LEGION PK 107 71
LEGION PK 206 66 150

MONITOR 10 50





LEGION PK 271 68
LEGION PK . 33C 60 150

MONITOR 9 50





LEGION PK 1C 61
LEGION PK 182 60 150

MONITOR 12 50





LEGION PK 343 77
LEGION PK 285 63 150

MONITOR 11 50





(1982)LEGION PK 260 81
(1983)LEGIOH PK 206 66 150
1 1 QOC \ unu T Tiln . — _ •
12
         50

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The maxinmm particulate  concentrations produced by ISCST are all less than the
PM-10  standards.   Annual  average concentrations  are  about 20  percent  of the
standard; 24-hour concentrations are about half the standard.

Table 3 summarizes the maximum concentrations from the COMPLEX-1 modeling.  The
maximum  annual average  S02 and  PM-10  concentrations  occurred  at  the  PSAPCA
monitoring site.  Shorter-term maximum S02 concentrations generally occurred at
Providence Hospital  (south  of Scott near Rucker Hill), but also occurred at the
monitor  for   some   24-hour periods.     The  maximum  24-hour  average  PM-10
concentrations all occurred at the Providence Hospital receptor.

Annual  S02   concentrations  calculated  by  COMPLEX-1  exceeded  the  ambient
standard, and were generally slightly higher than with ISCST.  Shorter-term S02
concentrations were  generally  lower than those predicted with ISCST,  but were
all higher than the  applicable standard.

PM-10  concentrations  calculated by  COMPLEX-1 were  all  below  the  standard.
Annual  average  concentrations  were  almost  identical   to  those estimated  by
ISCST, but 24-hour concentrations were generally slightly higher.

Table  4  summarizes  the  maximum concentrations from  the SHORTZ modeling.   As
with  ISCST  and COMPLEX-1,  SHORTZ calculates  the  highest annual  concentrations
at  the PSAPCA monitor.   All 3-hour and  24-hour  maxima occur on Rucker Hill,
south of Scott.

SHORTZ  calculated  lower  annual average  S02  concentrations than  ISCST  and
COMPLEX-1,  with   maximum  concentrations  less  than  the  ambient   standard.
Shorter-term  S02  concentrations calculated  by  SHORTZ  are  higher  than  with
COMPLEX-1, and comparable to ISCST, with concentrations two  or  more times the
standard.

Calculated  annual PM-10 concentrations  are  also  lower than  those  calculated
with  the  other models.   SHORTZ calculated 24-hour PM-10  concentrations which
were generally higher  than  the other models, but they were still  well below the
standard.
Maximum Short-term  Episodes


The  final round  of modeling focused  on  the sources responsible for  the  peak
concentrations  calculated during the modeling of the discrete  receptors  for 5
years.  Table 5 displays the concentration produced by each of the six sources
at  the location with  the highest arid second highest concentration  of S02 and
PM-10.

A review  of Table  5 indicates  that  the  results  of  COMPLEX-1 and SHORTZ,  which
accept receptor heights higher  than  stack height,  compare well qualitatively.
Both  models  indicate  much higher contributions from Scott than Weyerhaeuser,
with  Scott's   recovery  boiler   and   power   boilers   6-10   dominating.
Quantitatively,  the models  do  not  agree well.   SHORTZ predicts much higher
concentrations  than  COMPLEX-1,  especially in  the  3-hour  S02  calculations.

                                        21

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TABLE 3: SUMMARY OF COMPLEX- 1 MODEL RESULTS

1982
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1983
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1984
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1985
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1986
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
24 -HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
FIVE-YEAR HIGH
3-HOUR AVERAGE
(1984) HIGHEST
(1984) 2nd-HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
(1982) HIGHEST
(1984) 2nd-HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
(1985) HIGHEST
LOCATION


PROV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

PROV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

MONITOR


PROV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

MONITOR
MONITOR

MONITOR


PROV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

PROV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

MONITOR


PROV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

PROV.HOSP
MONITOR

MONITOR


PROV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

PROV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

MONITOR


PRCV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

PRCV.HOSP
PROV.HOSP

MONITOR
DAY


162
326

326
231




166
203

33
236




154
243

212
154




239
177

177
168




173
228

343
313




154
243

326
154


HOUR S02 STANDARD LOCATION DAY PM10


3 2603
3 2383 1300

693 PROV.HOSP 326
523 365 PROV.HOSP 231

93 80 MONITOR


24 2660
24 2386 1300

571 PROV.HOSP 166
470 365 PROV.HOSP 203

87 80 MONITOR


3 2921
24 2786 1300

605 PROV.HOSP 212
532 365 PROV.HOSP 164

82 80 MONITOR


24 2615
3 2110 1300

673 PROV.HOSP 177
411 365 PROV.HOSP 118

100 80 MONITOR


3 2430
6 2062 1300

532 PROV.HOSP 343
437 365 PROV.HOSP 278

98 80 MONITOR


3 2921
24 2786 1300

693 (1985)MONITOR 177
532 365 (1982)MONITOR 231

100.3 80 (1986)MONITOR
STANDARD





86
74 150

10 50





75
63 150

9 50





84
73 150

9 50





93
51 150

11 50





61
58 150

11 50





93
74 150

11 50

-------
TABLE 4: SUMMARY OF

1982
3- HOUR AVERAGE .
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1983
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
24- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1984
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
24- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd-HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1985
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
1986
3- HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
HIGHEST
2nd- HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
HIGHEST
FIVE-YEAR HIGH
3- HOUR AVERAGE
(1984) HIGHEST
(1984) 2nd HIGH
24-HOUR AVERAGE
(1984) HIGHEST
(1984) 2nd HIGH
ANNUAL AVERAGE
(1986) HIGHEST
LOCAT-ION


RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

MONITOR


RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

MONITOR


RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

MONITOR


RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

MONITOR


RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

MONITOR


RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

RUCKER HILL
RUCKER HILL

MONITOR
DAY


192
312

326
343

365


39
157

232
232

365


124
124

212
124

366


68
121

6
68

365


273
253

211
343

365


124
124

212
124

365
HOUR


3
24

24
24

24


3
3

24
24

24


24
24

24
24

24


6
3

24
24

24


24
21

24
24

24


24
24

24
24

24
S02


3355
3247

750
634

60


4523
4046

763
743

53


5069
5043

892
814

52


4800
3970

753
733

55


3828
3809

796
671

61


5069
5043

892
814

61
STANDARD



1300


365

80



1300


365

80



1300


365

80



1300


365

80



1300


365

80



1300


365

80
SHORTZ RESULTS
LOCATION DAY





RUCKER HILL 326
RUCKER HILL 318

MONITOR 365





RUCKER HILL 232
RUCKER HILL 117

MONITOR 365





RUCKER HILL 212
RUCKER HILL 124

MONITOR 366





RUCKER HILL 6
RUCKER HILL 68

MONITOR 365





RUCKER HILL 211
RUCKER HILL 194

MONITOR 365





(1984) RUCKER HILL
(1984) RUCKER HILL

(1985) MONITOR

PM-10 STANDARD





79
73 150

7 50





91
81 150

6 50





100
89 150

6 50





82
75 150

8 50





89
60 150

7 50





100
89 150

3 50

-------
TABLE
5: SUMMARY OF
POLLUTANT /
AVERAGING PERIOD
ISCST
S02:

PM-10:

3-hr high
3-hr 2nd
24 -hr high
24 -hr 2nd
24-hr high
24 -hr 2nd
SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONS TO PEAK EPISODES WITH MAXIMUM EMISSIONS
-- WEYERHAEUSER --
REG. P.B. P.B.
BLR. #1 #2

0
0
0
0
0
0

2632 2884
2087 2163
435 482
363 391
38 42
32 34
REG.
BLR.

0
0
0
0
0
0
• SCOTT
P.B.
1-5

0
0
0
0
0
0

P.B.
6-10

0
0
0
0
0
0
ALL
SOURCES

5516
4251
916
753
81
66
AMBIENT
STANDARD

1300
365
150
COMPLEX- 1
S02:

PM-10:
SHORTZ
S02:

PM-10:
3-hr high
3-hr 2nd
24-hr high
24 -hr 2nd
24-hr high
24 -hr 2nd

3-hr high
3-hr 2nd
24 -hr high
24 -hr 2nd
24 -hr high
24 -hr 2nd
0
0
1
3
0
0

0
0
19
0
3
0
0 0
0 0
4 6
8 9
0 1
1 1

0 0
0 0
11 20
0 0
1 2
0 0
1371
1588
284
310
66
55

2061
1955
355
312
63
55
230
262
67
24
7
2

1090
764
129
127
11
11
1320
936
331
169
18
15

1919
2315
358
375
21
23
2921
2785
693
523
93
74

5069
5034
892
814
100
89
1300
365
150

1300
365
150
24

-------
The  ISCST  results are  completely  different,   reflecting  the  fact  that  the
maximum  concentrations  were predicted  at  Legion Park  rather  than downtown
Everett.  ISCST calculated maximum concentrations from Weyerhaeuser's two power
boiler stacks.  These stacks are each about  118  feet tall, considerably shorter
than the 280 foot  recovery boiler stack.

Tables 6,  7A,  7B  and 7C  identify  the meteorological  conditions which produced
the peak concentrations  displayed  in Table 5.  Table 6 indicates that the peak
3-hour SC>2  concentrations all occurred during stable periods with 1-2 meter per
second winds  from the north or northeast.  Table 7A, 7B and  7C indicate that
the  weather   on   the   days   producing   the  highest  24-hour   average  SC>2
concentrations also included at least 11 hours of stable conditions; during the
stable  periods,  winds  were generally  from  1-3  meters  per second and  had  a
strong northerly  component.   As indicated by the windrose  displayed in Figure
1, northerly and northeasterly  winds are not common wind directions.  It is not
surprising,  then,  that  the  highest annual  average average  concentrations  are
observed in a different  location than the  short-term peaks.


Estimated Concentrations Based  on Actual Emissions
As  indicated  in  Table  1,  actual  emissions  are  much  less  than  permitted
emissions.   For  example,  Scott's actual S02 emissions from its recovery boiler
and power boilers  6-10 were only about  45 percent and 15 percent, respectively,
of  allowable emissions.   Therefore, annual average  and probably shorter-term
concentrations  are  likely  to be significantly lower than  the concentrations
displayed in Table 5.

If  only one source  were  involved,  the  concentrations calculated with maximum
allowable emissions  could simply be scaled back to determine the concentrations
resulting  from  actual  emissions.   In  this  study,  however, six  sources were
involved, and the  ratio of  permitted to actual  emissions was different for each
source  and  each pollutant.   Because each source produces  its maximum impact
under  specific  meteorological  conditions,  it is  not  completely  accurate  to
reduce  each  source contribution by the ratio of actual  to permitted emissions,
and  sum the results.   Nonetheless,  it does  provide  a rough  estimate  of the
reduction in ambient concentrations which would be expected with actual rather
than permitted emissions.

Table 8  presents the concentrations which TRC  estimated by reducing the source
contributions  displayed  in Table  5  by  the  ratio  of  actual  to  permitted
emissions.   Table  8 indicates that concentrations estimated by this method are
all  lower   than  the  ambient   standard,  although  the  3-hour  average  S02
concentrations predicted  by SHORTZ  are close  to  the standard.   Annual average
concentrations  for actual  conditions are not  identified because the models do
not provide  annual average  source contributions.
                                        25

-------
   TABLE 6:  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS PRODUCING THE PEAK 3-HOUR S02 CONCENTRATIONS



HOUR
1
2
3

FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
220.0
220.0
210.0
RANDOM
FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
215.0
216.0
211.0

WIND
SPEED
(MPS)
1.70
1.92
2.28

MIXING
HEIGHT
(METERS)
1248.0
1222.0
1196.0


TEMP.
(DEC. K)
287.0
288.0
288.0

INPUT
STABILITY
CATEGORY
6
6
6

ADJUSTED
STABILITY
CATEGORY
6
6
6
COMPLEX-1



HOUR

FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
RANDOM
FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)

WIND
SPEED
(MPS)

MIXING
HEIGHT
(METERS)


TEMP.
(DEC. K)

INPUT
STABILITY
CATEGORY

ADJUSTED
STABILITY
CATEGORY
     1
     2
     3
180.0
190.0
170.0
182.0
185.0
171.0
2.01
1.03
1.00
1472.5
1474.5
1476.5
284.0
283.0
283.0
6
6
6
6
6
6
SHORTZ



HOUR

FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
RANDOM
FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)

WIND
SPEED
(MPS)

MIXING
HEIGHT
(METERS)


TEMP.
(DEC. K)

INPUT
STABILITY
CATEGORY

ADJUSTED1
STABILITY
CATEGORY
    22
    23
    24
180.0
180.0
180.0
183.0
176.0
179.0
1.43
1.07
1.74
2187.8
2152.4
2117.0
281.0
281.0
280.0
6
6
6
6
6
6
     Although  F-stability  was  observed,
     stabilities in the SHORTZ model runs.
                                all  F-stabilities  were  converted  to  E-
                                        26

-------
TABLE 7A: METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS PRODUCING PEAK 24-HOUR S02 CONCENTRATIONS
ISCST



HOUR
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24


FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
220.0
240.0
210.0
220.0
220.0
250.0
220.0
190.0
180.0
90.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
90.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
90.0
90.0
90.0
100.0
100.0
220.0
280.0

RANDOM
FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
219.0
238.0
208.0
218.0
219.0
246.0
225.0
190.0
182.0
91.0
99.0
98.0
100.0
89.0
99.0
95.0
95.0
93.0
91.0
93.0
102.0
97.0
221.0
279.0


WIND
SPEED
(MPS)
1.00
1.56
2.68
1.65
1.48
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.28
3.49
3.76
3.35
3.84
4.38
3.84
3.17
3.31
3.13
3.53
3.04
1.25
1.00
1.56


MIXING
HEIGHT
(METERS)
1126.1
1094.9
1063.6
1032.4
1001.1
11.8
100.3
188.8
277.4
365.9
454.4
542.9
631.5
720.0
720.0
720.0
720.0
720.0
726.7
735.5
744.4
753.2
762.1
771.0



TEMP.
(DEC. K)
288.0
286.0
287.0
286.0
285.0
285.0
287.0
288.0
290.0
292.0
294.0
296.0
298.0
299.0
299.0
299.0
299.0
296.0
293.0
293.0
291.0
290.0
291.0
290.0


INPUT
STABILITY
CATEGORY
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
6
6
6
6


ADJUSTED
STABILITY
CATEGORY
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
6
6
6
6
                                    27

-------
TABLE 7B: METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
COMPLEX- 1



HOUR
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24


FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
170.0
170.0
180.0
130.0
180.0
170.0
220.0
160.0
170.0
140.0
140.0
160.0
120.0
170.0
160.0
130.0
160.0
190.0
170.0
150.0
150.0
130.0
160.0
200.0

RANDOM
FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
173.0
165.0
179.0
131.0
176.0
169.0
221.0
156.0
169.0
144.0
140.0
155.0
118.0
173.0
159.0
131.0
164.0
188.0
171.0
150.0
148.0
129.0
157.0
203.0


WIND
SPEED
(MPS)
1.83
1.03
1.25
1.16
1.83
2.10
1.70
1.65
1.56
1.16
1.48
2.32
1.70
1.74
2.73
4.16
2.41
1.97
1.65
2.28
1.83
1.61
2.06
2.37
PRODUCING


MIXING
HEIGHT
(METERS)
776.4
111 .1
111 .9
778.6
779.3
780.1
780.8
62.4
183.0
303.6
424.2
544.8
665.4
786.0
786.0
786.0
775.3
758.0
740.7
723.4
706.1
688.8
671.5
654.2
PEAK 24-HOUR S02 CONCENTRATIONS



TEMP.
(DEG. K)
273.0
273.0
273.0
272.0
272.0
272.0
272.0
272.0
273.0
274.0
276.0
278.0
279.0
281.0
280.0
279.0
277.0
275.0
275.0
274.0
274.0
275.0
276.0
274.0


INPUT
STABILITY
CATEGORY
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6


ADJUSTED
STABILITY
CATEGORY
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
28

-------
TABLE 7C: METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
SHORTZ



HOUR
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24


FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
200.0
180.0
180.0
180.0
170.0
200.0
160.0
90.0
100.0
100.0
90.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
110.0
110.0
120.0
180.0
210.0

RANDOM
FLOW
VECTOR
(DEGREES)
195.0
178.0
177.0
183.0
173.0
202.0
159.0
94.0
97.0
96.0
92.0
96.0
96.0
101.0
101.0
101.0
92.0
100.0
109.0
109.0
105.0
116.0
179.0
213.0


WIND
SPEED
(MPS)
3.13
2.46
2.19
2.15
1.79
1.70
2.06
2.50
3.53
3.80
3.67
4.38
4.65
5.72
5.90
5.81
5.10
5.59
7.24
6.84
5.05
3.13
1.97
1.97
PRODUCING PEAK 24-HOUR S02 CONCENTRATIONS


MIXING
HEIGHT
(METERS)
1375.8
1367.6
1359.5
1351.4
22.8
161.4
300.0
438.6
577.1
715.7
854.3
992.9
1131.4
1270.0
1270.0
1270.0
1270.0
1270.0
1270.0
1270.2
1270.8
1271.4
1272.0
1272.6



TEMP.
(DEC. K)
290.0
289.0
288.0
288.0
288.0
288.0
290.0
291.0
293.0
295.0
296.0
298.0
300.0
301.0
301.0
300.0
300.0
300.0
298.0
296.0
294.0
294.0
293.0
291.0


INPUT
STABILITY
CATEGORY
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
5
5
6
6
6


ADJUSTED1
STABILITY
CATEGORY
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
5
5
6
6
6
Although  F-stability  was  observed,  all  F-stabilities  were  converted  to  E-
stabilities in the SHORTZ model runs.
                                   29

-------
TABLE
8: ESTIMATE OF SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONS TO PEAK EPISODES WITH ACTUAL EMISSIONS
POLLUTANT /
AVERAGING PERIOD
ACTUAL

ISCST
S02:

PM-10:
/ALLOWABLE^
S02
PM-10

3-hr high
3-hr 2nd
24-hr high
24 -hr 2nd
24 -hr high
24 -hr 2nd
-- WEYERHAEUSER --
REG. P.B. P.B.
BLR. #1 #2
.29 .31
.76 .25

0 816
0 647
0 135
0 113
0 10
0 8
.06
.06

894
130
29
23
3
2
REC.
BLR.
.45
.17

0
0
0
0
0
0
SCOTT
P.B.
1-5
.002
1.01

0
0
0
0
0
0

P.B.
6-10
.13
.11

0
0
. 0
0
0
0
ALL
SOURCES


989
777
164
136
12
10
AMBIENT
STANDARD


1300
365
150
COMPLEX- 1
S02:

PM-10:
SHORTZ
S02:

PM-10:
3-hr high
3-hr 2nd
24-hr high
24 -hr 2nd
24 -hr high
24-hr 2nd

3-hr high
3-hr 2nd
24-hr high
24 -hr 2nd
24-hr high
24 -hr 2nd
0 0
0 0
0 1
1 2
0 0
0 0

0 0
0 0
6 3
0 0
2 0
0 0
0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0
617
715
128
140
11
9

927
880
160
140
11
9
0
1
0
0
7
2

2
2
0
0
11
11
172
122
43
22
2
2

249
301
47
49
2
3
789
837
173
165
20
13

1179
1183
217
189
27
23
1300
365
150

1300
365
150
This is fraction of the allowable emission rate which each source operated
at in 1985 or 1986.
                                  30

-------
Table 9 presents  the highest and second-highest concentrations  recorded at the
PSAPCA monitoring site at  the  Medical Dental Building  in  downtown Everett in
1984,  1985  and  1986.    Table  9  also   displays  the  highest  concentration
calculated by  the three models  for  each  averaging  time  for both permitted and
actual emission rates.   It should be noted that all three models indicate that
the  maximum  annual  average  concentrations  resulting  from maximum  permitted
emissions would  occur at  the monitor, but shorter term maxima  occur at other
locations.   The  modeling indicates  that  the  existing  monitor  location is well
positioned to  measure the  maximum annual  average concentrations  from Scott and
Weyerhaeuser,  but that monitors near  Providence Hospital and near  Legion Park
may be better  for monitoring  short term concentrations.

The modeling indicates that  Scott and Weyerhaeuser emissions account for most
of the S02 measured at the Medical-Dental Building.   But because the predicted
PM-10  concentrations  from the  two  plants  are significantly  lower  than  the
measured values,  it is likely that other sources are important contributors to
local PM-10.

In summary,  the  modeling  indicates  that S02  standards  would be exceeded with
maximum  allowable S02 emissions,  but  that PM-10 concentrations would be well
below ambient  standards..  The concentrations estimated by reducing each source
contribution in  proportion to  its actual emissions during  1985/1986  are below
ambient standards.
                                        31

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TABLE 9: SUMMARY OF MEDICAL DENTAL BUILDING MONITORING DATA
1984 1985 1986
SULFUR DIOXIDE (PPM)
Annual Average .010 .011 .011
Highest 24-hour .059 .038 .043
2nd-High 24-hour .050 .034 .038
Highest 3 -hour .163 .200 .227
2nd-High 3 -hour .147 .080 .077
PARTICULATE MATTER (ug/m3)
PM-10 PM-10 PM-10
Annual Average 36 36 29
Highest 24 -hour 174 80 73
2nd-High 24-hour 165 77 68
MAXIMUM MODEL RESULTS
WITH WITH
MAXIMUM ACTUAL AMBIENT
EMISSIONS EMISSIONS STANDARD
.038 (C)
.350 (I)
.310 (S)
2.11 (I)
1.92 (S)


12 (I)
100 (S)
89 (S)

0.08 (S)
0.07 (S) 0.14
0.45 (S)
0.45 (S) 0.50



27 (S)
23 (S) 150
SOURCE:   1984-1986 Air Quality Data Summaries, PSAPCA.




KEY: (I) ISCST, (C) COMPLEX-1, (S) SHORTZ
                                        32

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REFERENCES

Bjorklund, J.R., and J.F. Bowers, 1982.  User's Instructions for the SHORTZ and
LONGZ Computer Programs, Volumes I and II.  EPA Publication No. EPA 903/9-82-
004a and b, U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, Region III, Philadelphia, PA.

Bowers, J.F., W.R. Hargraves  and A.J. Anderson, 1982.  Recommendations on a
SHORTZ/LONGZ S02 Air Quality  Model Methodology for the Tacoma Tideflats Area.
Prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 10, Publication No.
EPA-910/9-82-090.

Burt, E.W., 1977-  Valley Model User's Guide. EPA Publication No. EPA-450/2-
77-018. U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. (NTIS
No. PB 274054).

Environmental Protection Agency, 1986a.  Guideline on Air Quality Models
(Revised).  Publication No. EPA-450/2-78-027R.

Environmental Protection Agency, 1986b.  Industrial Source Complex (ISC)
Dispersion Model User's Guide,  Second Edition, Volumes I and 2.  Publication
Nos. EPA-450/4-86-005a,  and  -005b. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park,  NC.

Holzworth, George C.,  1972.   Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds, and Potential for
Urban Air Pollution Throughout  the Contiguous United States.  Environmental
Protection Agency Office of Air Programs Publication No. AP-101.

Turner, D.B., and J.H.  Novak, 1978.  User's Guide for RAM.  Publication No.
EPA-600/8-78-016 Vols  a, and  b. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
Triangle Park, NC.   (NTIS PB  294791 and PB 294792).  Also see the RAM Addendum
distributed by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of UNAMAP Version 6
Documentation.

Washington Department  of Ecology, 1987.  Letter  from Stuart A. Clark, Manager
of Air Programs to Robert Wilson, Regional 10 Meteorologist, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency.
                                        33

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APPENDIX
     34

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                     YMAX = 325000

                                        YMIN = 310000
FIGURE A-l:  ANNUAL AVERAGE S02 CONCENTRATIONS WITH ISCST WITHOUT  DOWNWASH
                                      35

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                         YMAX = 325000
                                      - '<_—^"T^—-  "^.^"TT*-""-'''  L*
                                     —-^	==     7   ^-^^
                                             YMIN = 310000
FIGURE  A-2:  2ND-HIGHEST 24-HOUR S02  CONCENTRATIONS WITH ISCST WITHOUT DOWNWASH
                                           36

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                       YMAX = 325000
                                          YMIN = 310000
FIGURE A-3:  2ND HIGHEST 3-HOUR S02  CONCENTRATIONS WITH ISCST WITHOUT DOWNWASH
                                        37

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         YMAX  = 325
                              YMIN = 310
FIGURE A-4:  FINE RECEPTOR GRID FOR  ISCST MODELING
                          38

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           YMAX = 325
                      w--^   *
                      .*&*•'.  _  u
                              YMIN = 310
FIGURE A-5:  FINE RECEPTOR GRID FOR COMPLEXl MODELING
                          39

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         YMAX = 325
                    -   /     .  _   /s

                               YMIN = 310
FIGURE A-6:  FINE RECEPTOR GRID FOR SHORTZ MODELING

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 PORT DOCUMENTATION
     PAGE
                   1. REPORT NO.

                     EPA  910/9-87-175
i and Subtitle
 QUALITY  MODELING ANALYSIS  OF INDUSTRIAL POINT  SOURCES
           IN EVERETT, WASHINGTON
Authors)
       E.B.  HANSEN  AND K.D. WINCES
                                                                       3. Recipient's Accession No.
                                                                       5. Report Date

                                                                       	MARCH
                                                                     8. Performing Orm;anizatlon R«pt- No:

                                                                      EPA.   910/9.87-175
 Ptrformlng Organization Nam* and Address
       TRC.ENVIRONMENTAL CONSULTANTS,  INC.
       21907 64th AVENUE WEST,  SUITE  230
       MOUNTLAKE TERRACE, WASHINGTON   98043
                                                                       10. Prelect/Task/Work Unit No.
                                                                     11. ContractCC) or GranMG) No.

                                                                     « 68-02-3886, WA 59
                                                                     (Q
 Spomorioa; Organization Name and Addms
       U.S.  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, REGION 10
        1200  SIXTH  AVENUE
        SEATTLE, WASHINGTON   98101
                                                                     13. Typo or Report A Period Cowered

                                                                      FINAL REPORT
                                                                      6/87-3^88	
                                                                     14.
 Supplementary Note*
L Abstract (Umit: 200 words)
he maximum allowable emissions from  operating permits for Scott Paper Company and
Jeyerhaeuser Company pulp  and paper mills in Everett,  Washington were obtained from.
lashington Department of Ecology.  A  5-year sequential meteorological data base was*
prepared using wind data from the Puget Sound Air  Pollution Control Agency monitoring
station in Everett,  surface  observations from Sea-Tac  Airport,  and upper  air data from
IJuillayute, Washington.  The mill's emissions of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter
rere modeled using the most  recent versions of COMPLEXl, SHORTZ, and ISCST to
determine  1) if the existing monitoring site was located such  that maximum
concentrations are measured; and 2) if existing permit limits  on emissions were
sufficient to ensure'compliance with  State and Federal ambient air quality standards.
V. Document Analysis  a. Descriptor*

    Air pollution
    Mathematical  models
    Computer models

  a. Identman/Open-ended Term*

    Industrial sources
    Dispersion
  c COSATI Field/Group
Ul Availability Statement
                                                         13. Security Claw (Thle Report)
                                                         20. Security Clatt (Thlt Pa«e)
                                                                                 21. No. a* Pa«ea

                                                                                     Pagco
                                                                                 22. Price
«tANSI-Z39.18>
                                        See Instruction* an Revene
                                                                                OPTIONAL FOHM 272 (4-77)
                                                                                (Formerty NTIS-35)
                                                                                Oepertment o( Commerce

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