EPA-AA-IMS/PS-80-3
                          Analysis of Propane Gain
                           Used as a Screen on the
                         Portland Element III Sample
                                 March, 1980
                                   NOTICE

Technical Reports  do  not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or posi-
tions.  They are intended to present technical analysis of issues using data
which are "currently  available.   The purpose  in  the  release  of such reports
is  to  facilitate  the  exchange  of  technical  information and  to  inform the
public  of  technical developments  which  may form the basis  for  a final EPA
decision, position or regulatory action.
                              David Brzezinski
                        Inspection/Maintenance Staff
                    Emission Control Technology Division
                     Office of Air, Noise, and Radiation
                    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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Propane  gain  values  have been  collected  from  292  Portland  Element  III
(1975-77  model  year)  vehicles  along with  as-received  FTP and  idle  test
emission  measurements.   This  data  is used  here  to  compare  the  expected
failure rate,  errors of commission,  and  the  amount of FTP  excess  emissions
identified  if  one  of  two sets  of  idle values or  one  of four propane  gain
values had been  used as a  cutpoint  to screen  the vehicles  in the  sample  with
high  emissions.    Table  1 contains the  results  when  all  292  vehicles  are
combined into  a  single group and  the  cutpoints applied.   Table  2  applies the
cutpoints  to only  those  127 vehicles  (43.5%)  which are equipped  with  air
injection  systems and Table  3 applies  the cutpoints  to the  remaining  165
vehicles (56.5%),  which are without air injection  systems.

The  Portland  Element  III sample was chosen to  represent  a wide  range  of
emission control technology types  existing  in  the Portland vehicle  popula-
tion.   This means  that  in  some  cases low  selling vehicles with  a  unique
emission  control  technology  type  may  be somewhat  over-represented  in  the
Element III sample.   A  complex  weighting  scheme allows  this  sample  to be
used  to represent a  Portland  or  National  vehicle mix  when  desired.   The
values  calculated  in  this  analysis, however,  have not been  weighted  to
represent  any  known vehicle mix.   The uncertainty  introduced by  not weight-
ing  the vehicle  sample  is not  expected  to  change the  observed  trends  or
conclusions  reached  in this analysis.

The  idle  cutpoints referred to  in  this analysis  as  "Houston" idle  cutpoints
are  the proposed  cutpoint values to be  used in  the Houston pilot  I/M  pro-
gram.   The  "Portland"  idle  cutpoints  are  the  most typical cutpoint  values
used  in the current  Portland,  Oregon Department  of  Environmental  Quality
(DEO)  I/M  program.  Neither of  these sets of idle  cutpoints represent  sug-
gestions by EPA,  but  only represent  points  for  discussion of the  relative
merits  of  idle and propane test procedures.

Vehicles whose measured  idle exhaust  emissions are greater than either  the
idle hydrocarbon  (HC)  or  idle  carbon  monoxide  (CO)  cutpoint  or  both fail the
idle  test.   Vehicles whose measured  propane  gain  values  in  neutral are  less
than the propane gain  cutpoint fail the propane test.

Errors  of  commission are  traditionally defined as  those  vehicles which  pass
their  FTP  test  standards, both  for  hydrocarbons  (HC)  and carbon  monoxide
(CO),  but  which are failed by a  particular  I/M short  test.   For  example, in
Table  1,  5.1% (15 vehicles) of  the sample had measured  HC  emissions of 1.5
gm/mi  or  less and CO  emissions  of  15 gm/mi or less,  but had either  a  mea-
sured  idle exhaust HC value more than  225 ppm  or a measured idle exhaust CO
value more  than  1.0%.  This value (5.1%)  represents  the errors  of commission
(as  traditionally defined)  in this  sample  using  the  "Portland"  idle  cut-
points.  It  is recorded  in Table  1  under  the  Errors  of  Commission heading in
the  "FTP  HC & CO" column.   The  "FTP HC"  and  the "FTP  CO" columns under the
Errors  of  Commission  heading  in Tables  1-3 represent a  slightly  different
view  of errors  of commission.  The  rates  in  the "FTP HC"  column  represent
those  vehicles which  pass the HC portion of the  FTP  test  but fail  a short

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test.  The  rates In the "FTP CO" column  represent  those  vehicles which pass
the  CO portion  of the FTP  test  but fail a  short test.   Some  of  these vehi-
cles  which  pass the FTP for  one pollutant  may  have  failed the  FTP  for  the
other pollutant  and  therefore would have  failed the overall  FTP standards.
As a  result,  these rates will be  higher than the  rates  of error of  commis-
sion  involving  vehicles which pass both the HC and  CO portions of  the  FTP
test.

FTP  excess  emissions  are the total  gm/mi  emissions from  the sample fleet in
excess of  their  FTP  standards.   The  FTP excess emissions identified by  a
short test is the sum of the FTP excess  emissions of  vehicles  which fail  the
short test.   The percent of FTP excess  emissions   identified  is  one  measure
of  its  effectiveness as  a screen  to  identify  vehicles which need  emission
related repair  and/or  adjustment.   The  more accurately a  short  test  selec-
tively fails  the dirtiest  cars,  the higher  will be the percent  excess emis-
sions identified.

Using a single propane test cutpoint of  10 rpm on all vehicles based  on this
sample, the  failure  rate would be  about 30% (Table  1).   Using  an  idle test
and  the "Houston" idle  cutpoints for  all 1975-77  vehicles  the  failure rate
would drop  to about 22%, yet the excess  emissions  identified  would increase
and  the errors  of commission would  reduce significantly.   This  shows that,
when  applied  to  all  1975-77 vehicles  as a  group, the "Houston"  idle test
might prove  to  be a more  effective screen  than the  propane test.   However,
if  we divide  the sample  into  two  groups,  with and without  air  injection
systems  (Tables 2 and  3), it  is  clear  that the  problems  with  the  propane
test  primarily  lie  in  its  inability to  screen  vehicles with  high  emissions
which have air  injection systems.   Table  4 compares the average  FTP results,
FTP  failure  rates, and  total excess  FTP emissions  of the vehicles  in  the
sample to  those vehicles in  the sample  with and without  air  injection sys-
tems.

The  error  of  commission rates for  the propane  test  are  higher  for vehicles
with  air pumps  (Table  2) than for  vehicles  without air pumps  (Table  3).   In
Table  3,  if  we  compare the  propane cutpoint of  20 rpm with the  "Houston"
idle  cutpoints  on vehicles without air pumps;  we  can  see  that  the  propane
test  as  a  screen for high  emitters is  in this  case very  comparable  to  the
idle  test.   Both have  low  error of commission   rates   and  have  fairly equal
failure rates (about 30%).   Even   the  FTP  excess  emissions  identified  are
fairly close.   The  "Houston" idle  test  appears  to  have a  tendency to iden-
tify  vehicles with  excess  HC emissions,  while  the  propane test,  which only
checks  carburetor  adjustment,  appears  to  have a   tendency to   screen  more
vehicles with excess CO emissions  than excess HC emissions.

Vehicles with air injection systems (Table  2) present  problems  for both  the
idle  test  and  the  propane test.   For  example,  the data  indicate  that,  in
order to  identify 40 percent of the excess   HC  d-iissions  from cars with  air
pumps  using   the  propane  test,   over 40%  of then   would  have  to  be  failed,
using a propane gain cutpoint of  30 rpm. ,  (Passing  and  failing cars at  the
random would  on  average  identify  the same  percent excess  emissions  at  the
same  failure  rate).  The  error of  commission  rate  (18.1%) at  that  propane
gain  cutpoint is  quite  high.   The  error  of commission rate  (0.0%)  for  the

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"Houston"  idle  outpoints  Is  small,  however  the  percentage of  excess  HC
emissions  identified  is also small.  This  indicates  that  the "Houston" idle
cutpoints,  while avoiding errors of  commission  much more successfully  than
the propane test, have  failed to screen out as many  of  the air pump vehicles
which  exceed   FTP  standards  no doubt  in  large  part because of  the  lower
failure  rate   (9.4%).   More  vehicles would  need  to  be failed  to  allow  a
substantial reduction  in  emission from those vehicles.  The  "Portland" idle
cutpoints  fail  more  cars (35.4%) and are more  effective for  these vehicles
in  terms  of excess emissions;  the error  of commission  rate  (5.5%) is  higher
for this idle  test but  still  less than one half the  error  of  commission  rate
for any of  the  propane  tests.

A possible  reason  for the higher error of commission  rates using  the propane
test on vehicles equipped with air  injection  systems could  be the combined
effect of  air injection in  catalyst-equipped vehicles  and the typical  car-
buretor adjustment specifications of these  vehicles.  Air injection  causes
the  catalyst  to work  more  efficiently.   The  manufacturers  who install  air
pumps  can  often readjust their  carburetor specifications  richer to improve
driver-perceived  performance and  still  pass FTP  standards.  These  richer
carburetor  specifications  result  in small  or  zero propane  gain  values.
Therefore  vehicles with  air  pumps  are  over-represented  in the  group  of
vehicles  which when adjusted to manufacturers  specification have measured
propane gain  values which are below a given propane test cutpoint.

A  propane  I/M program  testing vehicles with  air  injection systems  might
cause  owners   of many  air  injection vehicles  to  adjust  their  carburetors
leaner  than  recommended by  the manufacturer  in order  to pass the propane
gain cutpoint.   The  leaner  carburetor setting  probably will result in  some
additional  reduction   in  emissions  from  those  cars and  some fuel economy
gains,  possibly without  causing any significant performance problems.   If
this  is  the  case, no  serious  problems  would  arise.   If serious problems
(e.g., a  group of vehicles  is  consistently unable to  pass  the propane cut-
point  with acceptable  driveability,  leading to  public dissatisfaction  and
ad just-readjust behavior),  do  arise  because  of  propane testing of vehicles
with air  pumps, perhaps those  vehicles could be  exempted  from propane test-
ing  altogether.   Vehicles   with  air injection  systems tend to  have  lower
emissions  than  vehicles without air  pumps (Table 4), even when maladjusted.
It  is  estimated that  vehicles  with air  pumps account  for less than  20% of
FTP excess  emissions from all vehicles.   The necessary  reductions  in overall
automotive  pollutants could  be  gained from other  vehicles  which,  without air
pumps, tend to  have much higher emissions when maladjusted.   Another approach
to  vehicles  which have air  injection systems  might be some  combination of
propane testing, to determine the carburetor  adjustment, and  an  idle test to
gauge  the  overall  vehicle's  exhaust  emissions.

The  trends and  values  here  were  all based  on  the observations of the 292
Portland  Element  III  vehicles.  It  should  be  noted that the Portland cars
may  be lower  emitting  than  vehicles  in  areas without  I/M programs and that
consequently,  the  failure  rates presented here may be lower  than  would occur
in  a non-I/M  area.   Nevertheless,  these results  are  currently  EPA's  best
estimate  of  how  an  actual  propane  test  would  fare when  applied to  a much
larger sample of vehicles.   New  observations may surface  in  the  existing or
new  data  which may affect  any conclusions presented here.

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                                     Table 1

                              Portland Element III
                               1975-77 Model  Years
                                 (292  Vehicles)
Short Test
FTP Excess Emissions Identified
Errors of Commission (%)
Failures3 (%)
Idle
Cutpoint
"Houston" . 21.6
9
"Portland" 43.5
Propane Gain
Cutpoint
10 29.5
20 31.8
30 ' 37.7
40 40.8
1: Idle CO cutpoint = 3.5%;
2: Idle CO cutpoint = 1.0%;
3: Idle exhaust measurement
HC(%) C0(%) FTP


65.0 62.2

82.5 82.5


55.3 58.2
56.2 61.5
62.1 67.1
64.7 70.7
Idle HC cutpoint = 400 ppm.
Idle HC cutpoint = 225 ppm.
HC


0.

5.


6.
6.
8.
9.

greater than either the Idle CO or Idle HC cutpoint
Test; Propane Gain measurement less than the Propane Gain cutpoint fails
4: Vehicles which pass both
5: Vehicles which pass the
6: Vehicles which pass the
the FTP HC and CO standards but fail the short
CO portion of the FTP but fail the short test.
HC portion of the FTP but fail the short test.
the
test


& CO4 FTP CO5 FTP HC6


0 0.0 1.4

1 7.5 8.9


5 8.2 9.9
5 8.2 11.6
9 10.6 14.7
6 11.3 15.8

fails the Idle
Propane Test.
•


                                                              Corrected  February 20,  1980

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                                                     Table 2

                                              Portland Element III
                                       1975-77 Model Years With Air Pumps
                                                  (127  Vehicles)
  Idle
Cutpoint 1
"Houston" ,
"Portland""
 Short Test
        3
Failures
 9.4
35.4
                                   FTP Excess Emissions Identified
                                        HC(%)
30.8
74.0
                                                            Errors of Commission  (%)
35.5
78.4
                                                      FTP HC & CO
                                                                0.0
                                                                5.5
                                                  FTP CO
0.0
9.4
                                             FTP HC
 2.4
10.2
Portland Gain
  Cutpoint
     10            33.9
     20            36.2
     30            41.7
     40            44.9
                     30.1
                     32.3
                     41.5
                     48.2
                 42.7
                 46.0
                 49.4
                 54.9
                     15.0
                     15.0
                     18.1
                     18.9
                                                                             18.9
                                                                             18.9
                                                                             22.0
                                                                             22.8
          22.0
          23.6
          26.8
          27.6
1:  Idle CO cutpoint = 3.5%; Idle HC cutpoint = 400 ppm.
2: - Idle CO cutpoint = 1.0%; Idle HC cutpoint = 225 ppm.
3:  Idle exhaust measurement greater than either the Idle CO or Idle HC cutpoint fails the Idle
    Test; Propane Gain measurement less than the Propane Gain .cutpoint fails the Propane Test.
4:  Vehicles which pass both the FTP HC and CO standards but fail the short test.
5:  Vehicles which pass the CO portion of the FTP but fail the short test.
6:  Vehicles which pass the HC portion of the FTP but fail the short test.
                                                                              Corrected February 20, 1980

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                                                     Table 3

                                              Portland Element III
                                      1975-77 Model Years Without Air Pumps
                                                 (165  Vehicles)
  Idle
Outpoint .
"Houston" ,
"Portland""
                Short Test
               Failures  (%)
30.9
49.7
                FTP Excess Emissions Identified
                                       Errors of  Commission  (%)
                     HC(%)
75.8
89.1
                 C0(%)
70.7
85.6
                FTP HC & CO
0.0
4.8
            FTP CO"
0.0
6.1
          FTP HC
0-.6
7.9
Propane Cain
  Cutpoint
     10
     20
     30
     40
26.1
28.5
34.5
37.6
62.3
63.7
68.7
69.8
63.0
66.4
72.6
75.8
0.0
0.0
1.8
2.4
0.0
0.0
1.8
2.4
0.6
2.4
5.5
6.7
1:   Idle CO cutpoint = 3.5%; Idle HC cutpoint = 400 ppm.
2:   Idle CO cutpoint = 1.0%; Idle HC cutpoint = 225 ppm.
3:   Idle exhaust measurement greater than either the Idle CO or Idle HC cutpoint fails the Idle
    Test; Propane Gain measurement less than the Propane  Gain cutpoint fails the Propane Test.
4:   Vehicles which pass both the FTP HC and CO standards  but fail the short test.
5:   Vehicles which pass the CO portion of the FTP but fail the short test.
6:   Vehicles which pass the HC portion of the FTP but fail the short test.
                                                                              Corrected February 20,  1980

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With
Air Pump
Without
Air Pump

Total
Sample







Percent of
Sample

43.5

56.5


100.0








Average FTP
H£

1.52

2.15


1.88

Portlai

1975-
(29
\ £~ J


(gm/mi)
CO

18.6

30.4


25.2

                                                      Table 4
                                                   (292  Vehicles)
                                                              FTP  Failure Rate(%)
                                                              HC or  CO   HC    CO
                                                                52.8
                                                                64.2
38.6  42.5
54.5  61.8
                                                                59.2     47.6   53.4
                FTP Excess Emissions(%)*
                   HC              CO
23.9
76.1
                 100.0
24.4
75.6
               100.0
                                                                                                                   oo
* Percent of all FTP excess emissions from the total sample
                                                                             Corrected February 20,  1980

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