EPA-AA-SDSB 79-24 Technical Report Average Lifetime Periods for Light-Duty Trucks and Heavy-Duty Vehicles by Glenn W. Passavant November 1979 Notice Technical Reports do not necessarily represent final EPA decisions or positions. They are intended to present technical analysis of issues using data'which are currently available. The purpose in the release of such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and to inform the public of technical developments which may form the basis for a final EPA decision, position or regulatory action. Standards Development and Support Branch Emission Control Technology Division Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control Office of Air, Noise and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ------- -1- Table of Contents page I Foreword 1 II Summary 1 III Background 2 IV Determination of the Average Lifetime Periods 2 a. Methodology 2 b. Scrappage Rates 3 c. Average Mileage Accumulation Rates 3 d. Calculations 11 e. Discussion and Conclusions 20 ------- -2— I. Foreword An accurate estimate of the average lifetime period for any enis- sions source is an essential factor in determining the lifetime opera- ting costs and emissions reductions which can be expected in any eais- sion control strategy. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 mandate the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to further control emissions from light-duty trucks and heavy-duty engines. This technical report uses published vehicle scrappage and mileage accumulation data to estimate average lifetime periods for light-duty trucks and heavy-duty engines. These lifetime periods can be used in the air quality, economic impact, and cost effectiveness-analyses assoc- iated with the pending and upcoming rulemaking actions affecting light- duty trucks and heavy-duty engines. II. Summary This technical report estimates average lifetime periods for light- duty trucks and heavy—duty vehicles. The average lifetime in miles and years for any vehicle in either of these two classes was estimated using scrappage rate data and mileage accumulation data. These data were then used in a simple statistical procedure to estimate average lifetime periods at: Light-duty trucks (£ 6,000 Ibs. GVWR) 122,000 miles/12 years Light-duty trucks (6-8,500 Ibs. GVWR) 119,000 miles/12 years Composite LDT class (0-8,500 Ibs. GVWR) 120,000 niles/12 years Heavy-duty gasoline-fueled vehicles 114,000 miles/8 years (>8,500 Ibs. GVWR) Heavy-duty diesel vehicles 475,000 railes/9 years (>8,500 Ibs. GVWR) These lifetime periods can be used in the regulatory analyses asso- ciated with the upcoming light-duty trucks and heavy-duty vehicle/engine rulemaking actions. ------- -3- III. Background: The EPA is nox* involved in the preparation/promulgation of several rulemaking packages involving light-duty trucks and heavy-duty engines. The average lifetime periods of these vehicles/engines (hereafter . referred to as vehicles only) in both miles and years is an. essential input in determining the environmental impact, cost, and cost effective- ness of these rulemaking packages. The average lifetime in miles is used to compute the emissions decrease per vehicle and is also necessary to determine changes in operating costs which are a function of mileage. The average lifetime in years is used to compute operating costs which are functions of time. The cost effectiveness is then computed from these cost and benefit figures. The average lifetime period as defined in this report is the length of time and/or number of miles an average vehicle is in use. Using the term average implies that some vehicles will have lifetime periods less than the "average" and some will have lifetime periods greater. How- ever, the average lifetime is an effective means of representing the usage pattern for a large fleet of light-duty trucks or heavy-duty vehicles. IV. Determination of the Average Lifetime Periods A. Methodology The average lifetime miles of a fleet of vehicles produced in the same year can be expressed by the formula: n ALM = I f .m. 1-1 X X where: ALM = average lifetime miles i = vehicle/engine age. n = age at which last vehicle/engine of a fleet is scrapped. f. = fraction of vehicles/engines which are scrapped at age i. m. = average cumulative mileage on vehicles which are scrapped at age i. Therefore, if the scrappage and average mileage accumulation rates for a fleet of vehicles are known, the average lifetime mileage and period can be determined. ------- B. Scrappage Rates The scrappage rates used in this report were taken from a report prepared by Michigan Technological University under contract to EPA._l/2/ The scrappage rates were computed by contrasting known factory sales, as they appear in MVMA publications, with corresponding model year stock of vehicles estimated from the 1972 Census of Transportation. For example, to compute the cumulative scrappage rate at 9 years for vehicles pro- duced in 1970 the method xrould simply be: Total 1970 sales - 1979 registrations of 1970 vehicles Total 1970 sales This methodology can then be applied to different classes of vehicles for different years and the cumulative scrappage rates can be computed. To overcome some data acquisition and application problems cumula- tive scrappage rates were computed for only three major categories: (Light-Duty Trucks: Gas and Diesel) (0-10,000 Ib GVWR), HD Gasoline (HDG) (>10,000 Ib GVWR) and HD Diesel (HDD) (>10,000 Ib GVWR). These cumulative scrappage rates are shown in Table 1 and Figure 1. The annual scrappage rates also shown in Table 1 were computed by sub- tracting the cumulative scrappage rates. C. Average Mileage Accumulation Rates After examining several mileage accumulation rates models the data presented in the current mobile source emission factors document was selected because the vehicle classes were the same as the primary EPA Vehicle classes.^/ It contains mileage accumulation data covering a twenty year period for four major vehicle classes: LLDT - light-duty trucks: <6,000 Ibs GVWR HLDT - light-duty trucks: 6,001-8,500 Ibs GVWR HDG - gasoline-fueled heavy-duty vehicles: >8,500 Ibs GVWR HDD - diesel heavy-duty vehicles: >8,500 Ibs GVWR 2_/"The Development of an Emission and Fuel Economy Computer Model for Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses," John H. Johnson and Anil B. Jarabekar, August 1977, EPA-R803782010. 2/Tlhis is also available from the Society of Automotive Engineers - SAE Paper 780630. 3/Mobile Source Emission Factors EPA-400/9-78-055, March 1978. ------- — 5— Table 1 Scrappage Rates Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 LDT .00 .03 .04 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .05 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .03 .04 .04 .04 .03 .04 .03 .03 .03 .02 .02 .02 .01 .01 .02 .02 .00 .03 .07 .12 .17 .22 .27 .32 .37 .41 .45 .49 .53 .57 .60 .64 .68 .72 .75 .79 .82 .85 .88 .90 .92 .94 .95 .96 .98 1.0 A' .00 .05 .07 .09 .10 .08 .07 .06 .05 .05 .05 .04 .04 .05 .03 .03 .03 .03 .02 .02 .01 .01 .01 .01 - - - HDG C .00 .05 .12 .21 .31 .39 .46 .52 .57 .62 .67 .71 .75 .80 .83 .86 .89 .92 .94 .96 .97 .98 .99 1.0 A .00 .09 .07 .07 .06 .07 .06 :.05 .05 .05 .04 .04 .04 .03 .04 .03 .02 .03 .02 .03 .02 .02 .02 .02 .01 .01 .01 HDD C .00 .09 .16 .23 .29 .36 .42 .47 .52 .57 .61 .65 .69 .72 .76 .79 .81 .84 .86 .89 .91 .93 .95 .97 .98 .99 1.0 LDT: All trucks less than 10,000 Ib GVW: Classes 1 and 2 Gasoline trucks above 10,000 Ib GVW: Classes 3-8 Diesel trucks above 10,000 Ib GVW: Classes 3-8 HDG:V HDD: A - annual C - cumulative ------- o Ul a. a. oo :z OTd a: o 3 .3 VEHICLE SCRRPPRGE ( X=LDT 'T=HDG Z=HDD 5.00 7.00 .. 9.00 1I.CO 13.00 15.00 17.00 YEflRS 18.00 SUM 23JO 25.00 29.00 3UOO FIGURE 1 ------- To make the mileage accumulation rate model given in the emission factors document directly applicable in computing average lifetime periods three ^adjustments -to: the .-.data were necessary. The first adjustment involved extending the mileage accumulation rate data to cover the same, number of years as the scrappage rate data. This extension covered 10 years for LLDT and HLDT, 4 years for HDG and 7 years for HDD. This extension was accomplished using the "Fraction Reduction in Vehicle Miles Traveled with Age" data found in the Johnson and Jambekar report, and assuming (1) that LDTs are classes 1 and 2, (2) most HDG vehicles are class 6 and most HDD vehicles are classes 7, 8 and (3) the fraction reduction decreases a small amount each year after eighteen years. The data actually used in this extension is found in Table 2. The manner in which this data.was used is shown in the example below: HDG Vehicles Year 21: (.21) 19,000 miles - 3990 or AOOO miles. Year 22: (.20) 19,000 miles - 3800 niles. This same methodology was used to compute the mileage accumulation data found in the emission factors document. Tables 3, 4, and 5 contain the mileage accumulation data extended to the same number of years as the scrappage data for LOT, HDG, and HDD. The mileage accumulation .data shown in Tables 3, 4, and 5 repre- sents the number of miles the average vehicle would travel in each year of its life. This data is useful in that it accounts for the wide variety of vehicle usage patterns. Secondly, in computing the average annual mileage accumulation rate for a fleet of vehicles the rate at which the vehicles in the fleet are placed into service must also be considered. Assuming that vehicles are sold at a constant rate throughout the model year, and each vehicle accumulates its annual mileage (Tables 3, 4, 5) at a constant rate, the desired values of average annual mileage accumulation for the fleet can be computed. If thex-assumptions stated in the previous paragraph are used then the average vehicle in a fleet of new vehicles will be six months old at the end of the first year and will have accumulated one half of the annual mileage expected in Tables 3, 4, or 5. At the end of the second year, the average vehicle in the fleet will be one and one-half years old and will have accumulated all of the mileage expected by the average vehicle during its first year plus one-half of the second year's mileage. Using LLDT as an example: Year 1: .5(15,900) = 7,950 miles Year 2: .5(15,900) + .5(15,000) = 15,450 miles Year 3: .5(15,000) + .5(14,000) = 14,500 miles ------- Table 2 Fraction Reduction in Vehicle Miles Traveled with Age Age 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 LPT .24 .22 .20 .18 .16 .14 .12 .10 .08 .06 EDG .21 .20 .19 .18 HDP .17 .13 .10 .07 .05 .03 .01 ------- Table 3 < Vehicle Mileage Accumulation Rates - LDT Vehicle Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 *A - annual C - cumulative LLDT <6,000 A 15,900 15,000 14,000 13,100 12,200 11,300 10,300 9,400 8,500 7,600 6,700 6,600 6,200 5,900 5,500 5,100 5,000 4,700 4,400 4,000 3,700 3,400 3,100 2,800 2,400 2,100 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 Ibs GVW C 15,900 30,900 44,900 58,000 70,200 81,500 91,800 101,200 109,700 117,300 124,000 130,600 136,800 142,700 148,200 153,300 158,300 163,000 167,400 171,400 175,100 178,500 181,600 184,400 186,800 188,900 190,700 192,200 193,400 194,300 HLDT 6-8,500 Ibs GVW A C 15,700 15,700 14,100 12,600 11,300 10,200 9,400 8,600 8,000 7,500 7,100 6,600 6,300 6,000 5,500 5,200 5,000 4,700 4,400 4,100 3,800 3,500 3,100 2,800 2,500 2,200 1,900 1,600 1,300 900 15,700 31,400 45,500 58,100 69,400 79,600 89,000 97,600 105,600 113,100 120,200 126,800 133,100 139,100 144,600 149,800 154,800 159,500 163,900 168,000 171,800 175,300 178,400 181,200 183,700 185,900 187,800 189,400 190,700 191,600 ------- Table 4 Vehicle Mileage Accumulation Rate - HDG Vehicle Year Annual Cumulative 1 19,000 19,000 2 19,000 38,000 3 17,900 55,900 4 16,500 72,400 5 15,000 87,400 6 13,500 100,900 7 12,000 112,900 8 10,600 123,500 9 9,500 133,000 10 8,600 141,600 11 7,800 149,400 12 7,000 156,400 13 6,300 162,700 14 5,900 168,600 15 5,300 173,900 16 4,900 178,800 17 4,700 183,500 18 4,600 188,100 19 4,400 192,500 20 4,200 196,700 21 4,000 200,700 22 3,800 204,500 23 3,600 208,100 24 3,400 211,500 ------- Table 5 vehicle Milage Accumulation Rate -.HDD Vehicle Year Annual Cumulative 1 73,600 73,600 2 73,600 147,200 3 69,900 217,700 4 63,300 280,400 5 56,600 337,000 6 50,000 387,000 7 45,600 432,600 8 41,200 :473,800 9 38,200 512,000 10 36,000 548,000 11 34,600 582,600 12 33,800 616,400 13 33,100 649,500 14 32,400 681,900 15 30,900 712,800 16 28,700 741,500 17 25,700 767,200 18 21,300 788,500 19 18,400 806,900 20 15,400 822,300 21 12,600 834,900 22 9,600 844,500 23 7,400 851,900 24 5,000 856,900 25 3,700 860,600 26 2,200 862,800 27 700 863,500 ------- Thus, it can be seen that the average mileage accumulated by a vehicle in a fleet in any year x will be one-half of the sum of the mileage accumulation for year x and year (x-1). The final fleet average mileage accumulation rates for LLDT, HLDT, HDG, and HDD are shown in Tables 6, 7, and 8 and Figures 2, 3, 4, and 5. Thirdly, just as the vehicles were introduced at a constant rate in. the model year, it can be assumed that the fraction of the total fleet scrapped in any year is scrapped at a constant rate throughout that year. Thus the total accumulated mileage on the average vehicle when it is scrapped in year x is one half of the sum of the cumulative fleet average annual mileage acccummulation in years x and (x-1). This mileage at scrappage data will not be presented for the four vehicle groups considered but will be shown in the sample lifetime calculation which follows. D. Calculations As discussed previously, the average lifetime mileage periods can be expressed mathematically as: n AIM = I f .m. i^l1 1 Since the scrappage rates and average annual mileage accumulation rates are now known, the average lifetime in miles, and indirectly in years, can be obtained. For example, consider heavy-duty gas trucks. As shown in Table 9, using the scrappage and fleet average annual mileage accumulation rates, the average lifetime mileage is computed at about 114,000 miles. To determine the average number of years this represents, go back to Table 7 and find the approximate year by which the average lifetime mileage is reached. In this case it is nine years. Similar calculations can be made for LDTs and HDD with the following results: Type Vehicle Average Lifetime Periods— LLDT £ 6,000 Ib GVWR 122,000 miles/ 12 years/j' HLDT 6-8,500 Ib GVWR 119,000 miles/12 years/F/6/ LOT Composite 120,000 miles/12 years — — HDG 114,000 railes/8 years HDD 475,000 miles/9 years same scrappage rates xrere used for LLDT and HLDT since these x^ere computed for 0-10,000 Ib GVWR vehicles. ^/Assumes 55% of the LDTs are 6,000 Ibs CVWR or less and 45% are 6,001- 8,500 Ibs GVWR. These percentages are taken from the Mobile Source Emission Factors document. ------- 6/TERA, Inc. under contract to Oak Ridge National Laboratory recently estimated the average LDT lifetime at 122,300-132,000 miles and 11-12 years and the average passenger car lifetime at 87,300-97,300 miles and 9-10 years. See Vehicle - Miles of Travel Statistics, Lifetime Vehicle Miles of Travel, and Current State Methods of Estimating Miles of Travel, ORNL/TM-6327 Special, David L. Greene and Andrew S. Loebl, February 1979. 7/A11 results rounded up to the nearest thousand miles. ------- Table 6 Fleet Average Annual Mileage Accumulation Rates - LPT Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 LLDT Annual 7,950 15,450 14,500 13,550 12,650 11,700 10,800 9,850 8,950 8,050 7,150 6,650 6,400 6,050 5,700 5,300 5,050 4,850 4,550 4,200 3,850 3,550 3,250 2,950 2,600 2,250 1,950 1,650 1,350 1,050 Cumulative 7,950 23,400 37,900 51,450 64,100 75,800 86,600 96,450 105,400 113,450 120,600 127,250 133,650 139,700 145,400 150,700 155,750 160,600 165,150 169,350 173,200 176,750 180,000 182,950 185,550 187,800 189,750 191,400 192,750 193,800 . HLDT Annual 7,850 15,700 14,900 13,350 11,950 10,750 9,800 9,000 8,300 7,750 7,300 6,850 6,450 6,150 5,750 5,350 5,100 4,850 4,550 4,250 3,950 3,650 3,300 2,950 2,750 2,350 2,050 1,750 1,450 1,100 Cumulative 7,850 23,550 38,450 51,800 63,750 74,500 84,300 93,300 101,600 109,350 116,650 123,500 129,950 136,100 •141,850 147,200 152,300 157,150 161,700 165,950 169,900 173,550 176,850 179,800 182,550 184,900 186,950 188,700 190,150 191,250 ------- 3.00 LLDT RVE MILEflGE RCCUMULRTION 5.00 7.00 9.00 11.00 13.00 15.00 17.00 YEflRS 19.00 21.00 23.00 25^10 27.00 29.00 31.00 FIGURE" a ------- HLDT RVE MILERGE RCCUMULRTION 1.00 5.00 7.00 -,. 9.00 11,00 13.00 15.00 17.00 YEflRS 19.00 • 21.00 ; 23.00 25.00 ' 27.00 29.00 31.C ------- Table 7 Fleet Average Annual Mileage Accumulation Rates - HDG, Year Annual Cumulative 1 9,500 9,500 2 19,000 28,500 3 18,450 46,950 4 17,200 64,150 5 15,750 79,900 6 14,250 94,150 7 12,750 106,900 8 11,300 118,200 9 10,050 128,250 10 8,950 137,200 11 8,200 145,400 12 7,400 152,800 13 6,650 159,450 14 6,100 165,550 15 5,600 171,150 16 5,100 176,250 17 4,800 181,050 18 4,650 185,700 19 4,500 190,200 20 4,300 194,500 21 4,100 198,600 22 3,900 202,500 23 3,700 206,200 24 3,500 209,700 ------- HDG flVE.MILERGE RCCUMULRTION 13.00 YEflRS 15.00 17.00 13.00 21,00 23.00 25.00 ------- Table 8 Fleet Average Annual Mileage Accmulation Rates - HDD Year Annual Cumulative 1 36,800 36,800 2 73,600 110,400 3 71,750 182,150 4 66,600 248,750 5 59,950 308,700 6 53,300 362,000 7 47,800 409,800 8 43,400 453,200 9 39,700 492,900 10 37,100 530,000 11 35,300 565,300 12 34,200 599,500 13 33,450 632,950 14 32,750 665,700 15 31,150 696,850 16 29,800 726,650 17 27,200 753,850 18 23,500 777,350 19 19,850 797,200 20 16,900 814,100 21 14,000 828,100 22 11,100 839,200 23 8,500 847,700 24 6,200 853,900 25 4,350 858,250 26 2,950 861,200 27 1,450 862,650 ------- HDD flVE '• MI LEflGE flCCUMULflT I ON ts.00 YERRS ------- Table 9 Sample Average Lifetime Calculation - HDG Year Scrappage Total Mileage Total Mileage (i) Rate (fi) Accumulation When Scrapped (mi) 1 .00 9,500 4,750 0 2 .05 28,500 19,000 950 3 .07 46,950 37,725 2,641 4 .09 64,150 55,550 5,000 5 .10 79,900 72,025 7,203 6 .08 94,150 87,025 6,962 7 .07 106,900 100,525 7,037 8 .06 118,200 112,550 6,753 9 .05 128,250 123,225 6,161 10 .05 137,200 132,725 6,636 11 .05 145,400 141,300 7,065 12 .04 152,800 149,100 .5,964 13 .04 159,450 156,125 6,245 14 .05 165,550 162,500 8,125 15 .03 171,150 168,350 5,051 16 .03 176,250 173,700 5,211 17 .03 181,050 178,650 5,360 18 .03 185,700 183,375 5,501 19 .02 190,200 187,950 3,759 20 .02 194,500 192,350 3,847 21 .01 198,600 196,550 1,966 22 .01 202,500 200,550 2,006 23 .01 206,200 204,350 2,044 24 .01 209,700 207,950 2,080 1.00 113,567 I/See Table 7 ^/Computed for year (i) by taking one-half of the sura of the average mileage accumulation for year i and year (i-1). ------- E. Discussion and Conclusions As was stated previously, the lifetime periods calculated in this report represent lifetime mileages and years for the average vehicle. Light-duty trucks and heavy-duty vehicles operate in a wide variety of applications, 'usage patterns, load variations, environmental conditions, maintenance schedules and other operator-induced variables which may significantly affect the representativeness of these figures. The analysis in this report gives one method by which the average lifetiae period can be computed which inherently accounts for the effects of the variables discussed above. It should be possible for each manufacturer to deduce a more definitive lifetime period for its vehicles and/or engines based on the characteristics of each vehicle/engine line and the vehicle/engine application. The average lifetime mileage figures calculated above are useful because they represent the average for a wide variety of operating conditions and are characteristic of the vehicle classes as a whole. The average lifetime periods in this report are based on vehicle scrappage rates and not engine retirement or rebuild rates. This leads to the question of the relationship, if any, between average lifetime periods and average periods to engine retirement or rebuild. The definition of engine retirement is obvious,1i.e. engine scrappage, but the definition of engine rebuild is not as clear. A report prepared by Arthur D. Little, Inc.jB/ indicates that vehicle/engine manufacturers consider the average lifetime to be the length of time or distance the engine may be operated before an "in-frame" overhaul is required. Such overhauls include inspection and replacement as required of those parts which can be removed from the- engine without removing the engine from the frame, of the vehicle. Parts included in this type of overhaul include valves, pistons, piston rings, cylinder liners, and connecting rod bearings. To provide some means of comparison between average lifetime periods and average periods to overhaul some average period to overhaul data is shown in Table 10. In comparing these periods no firm conclusions can be draxm. However, some preliminary conclusions are possible: (1) The average heavy-duty diesel engine undergoes at least one and possibly tv/o overhauls prior to vehicle scraopage'. (2) Heavy-duty gasoline-fueled engines are just as likely scrapped as rebuilt. ji/"Heavy-Duty Vehicle Engine Service Accumulation Cycle," Arthur D. Little, Inc., April 1977, EPA Contract 68-03-2372, this is an unapproved draft report available in public docket vOMSAPC 78-4. ------- Table 10 Life to Overhaul Data Engine Type HDD <>30K GVWR) 250 HP Turbocharged ; Diesel - HDD HDD HDD Medium-Duty Diesel Diesel Bus Light-Duty Gas HDG Service Type linehaul linehaul linehaul urban urban urban variable variable Life to Overhaul (miles) 300,000 - 500,000 280,000 500,000 300,000 150,000 125,000 - 200,000 200,000 - 250,000 100,000 100,000 Type of Overhaul out-of-frame in-frame out-of-frame in-frame in-frame out-of-frame in-frame out-of-frame in-frame I/ !/ I/ I/ I/ 11 I-1 I/ - Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE Paper 750128. II -Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE Paper 700665. 3/ - Heavy-Duty Vehicle Engine Service Accumulation Cycle," Arthur D. Little, Inc., April 1977, EPA Contract 68-03-2372, an unapproved draft report available in public docket //OMSAPC 78-4. ------- -24- (3) Urban usage leads to much shorter lifetime mileage than over the road usage. (4) LDTs are more likely retired and .replaced in lieu of re- building the engine. The average lifetime periods presented above for light-duty trucks and heavy-duty vehicles have been computed using sound technical methods and engineering judgement. These lifetime mileages and periods are the values which will be used in future rulemaking actions to compute emissions reductions, costs, and cost effectiveness. ------- |