EPA-AA-SDSB 79-24
                          Technical Report
                    Average Lifetime Periods for
                        Light-Duty Trucks and
                         Heavy-Duty Vehicles
                                 by


                          Glenn W. Passavant



                             November  1979
                                Notice

Technical Reports do not necessarily represent  final EPA decisions or
positions.  They are intended to present technical analysis of issues
using data'which are currently available.   The  purpose in the release of
such reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical information and
to inform the public of technical developments  which may form the basis
for a final EPA decision, position or regulatory action.
               Standards Development and Support  Branch
                 Emission Control Technology Division
             Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control
                  Office of Air, Noise and Radiation
                 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

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                                   -1-
                          Table of Contents                page




I    Foreword                                               1




II   Summary                                                1




III  Background                                             2




IV   Determination of the Average Lifetime Periods           2




     a.  Methodology                                        2




     b.  Scrappage Rates                                    3




     c.  Average Mileage Accumulation Rates                  3




     d.  Calculations                                       11




     e.  Discussion and Conclusions                          20

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                                    -2—
I.   Foreword

     An accurate estimate of the average lifetime period  for any  enis-
sions source is an essential factor in determining the  lifetime opera-
ting costs and emissions reductions which can be expected in any  eais-
sion control strategy.

     The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 mandate the U.S.  Environmental
Protection Agency to further control emissions from light-duty trucks
and heavy-duty engines.

     This technical report uses published vehicle scrappage and mileage
accumulation data to estimate average lifetime periods  for light-duty
trucks and heavy-duty engines.  These lifetime periods  can be used in
the air quality, economic impact, and cost effectiveness-analyses assoc-
iated with the pending and upcoming rulemaking actions  affecting  light-
duty trucks and heavy-duty engines.

II.  Summary

     This technical report estimates average lifetime periods for light-
duty trucks and heavy—duty vehicles.

     The average lifetime in miles and years for any vehicle in either
of these two classes was estimated using scrappage rate data and  mileage
accumulation data.  These data were then used in a simple statistical
procedure to estimate average lifetime periods at:

          Light-duty trucks (£ 6,000 Ibs. GVWR)        122,000 miles/12 years

          Light-duty trucks (6-8,500 Ibs. GVWR)        119,000 miles/12 years

          Composite LDT class (0-8,500 Ibs. GVWR)      120,000 niles/12 years

          Heavy-duty gasoline-fueled vehicles          114,000 miles/8 years
          (>8,500 Ibs. GVWR)

          Heavy-duty diesel vehicles                   475,000 railes/9 years
          (>8,500 Ibs. GVWR)

     These  lifetime periods can be used in the regulatory analyses asso-
 ciated with the upcoming light-duty trucks and heavy-duty vehicle/engine
 rulemaking  actions.

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                                    -3-
III. Background:

     The EPA is nox* involved in the preparation/promulgation of several
rulemaking packages involving light-duty trucks and  heavy-duty engines.
The average lifetime periods of these vehicles/engines  (hereafter .
referred to as vehicles only) in both miles and years is  an. essential
input in determining the environmental impact, cost, and  cost effective-
ness of these rulemaking packages.  The average lifetime  in miles is
used to compute the emissions decrease per vehicle and  is also necessary
to determine changes in operating costs which are a  function of mileage.
The average lifetime in years is used to compute operating costs which
are functions of time.  The cost effectiveness is then  computed from
these cost and benefit figures.

     The average lifetime period as defined in this  report is the length
of time and/or number of miles an average vehicle is in use.  Using the
term average implies that some vehicles will have lifetime periods  less
than the "average" and some will have lifetime periods  greater.  How-
ever, the average lifetime is an effective means of  representing  the
usage pattern for a large fleet of light-duty trucks or heavy-duty
vehicles.

IV.  Determination of the Average Lifetime Periods

     A. Methodology

     The average lifetime miles of a fleet of vehicles  produced  in  the
same year can be expressed by the formula:

                     n
               ALM = I f .m.
                    1-1 X X
where:

               ALM = average lifetime miles

               i = vehicle/engine age.

               n = age at which last vehicle/engine of a fleet  is scrapped.

               f. = fraction of vehicles/engines which are scrapped
                    at age  i.

               m. = average cumulative mileage on vehicles which are
                    scrapped at age i.

     Therefore,  if  the scrappage  and  average  mileage accumulation rates
 for a  fleet of vehicles  are known,  the average lifetime mileage and
 period can be determined.

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     B.   Scrappage Rates

     The scrappage rates used in this report were taken  from a  report
prepared by Michigan Technological University under contract to EPA._l/2/
The scrappage rates were computed by contrasting known factory  sales, as
they appear in MVMA publications, with corresponding model year stock of
vehicles estimated from the 1972 Census of Transportation.   For example,
to compute the cumulative scrappage rate at 9 years for  vehicles pro-
duced in 1970 the method xrould simply be:

        Total 1970 sales - 1979 registrations of 1970 vehicles
                            Total 1970 sales

This methodology can then be applied to different classes of vehicles
for different years and the cumulative scrappage rates can be computed.

     To overcome some data acquisition and application problems cumula-
tive scrappage rates were computed for only three major  categories:
(Light-Duty Trucks: Gas and Diesel) (0-10,000 Ib GVWR),  HD Gasoline
(HDG)  (>10,000 Ib GVWR) and HD Diesel (HDD) (>10,000 Ib  GVWR).   These
cumulative scrappage rates are shown in Table 1 and Figure 1.  The
annual scrappage rates also shown in Table 1 were computed by sub-
tracting the cumulative scrappage rates.

     C.   Average Mileage Accumulation Rates

     After examining several mileage accumulation rates  models  the data
presented in the current mobile source emission factors  document was
selected because the vehicle classes were the same as the primary EPA
Vehicle classes.^/  It contains mileage accumulation data covering a
twenty year period for four major vehicle classes:

          LLDT - light-duty trucks: <6,000 Ibs GVWR

          HLDT - light-duty trucks: 6,001-8,500 Ibs GVWR

          HDG  - gasoline-fueled heavy-duty vehicles: >8,500 Ibs GVWR

          HDD  - diesel heavy-duty vehicles: >8,500 Ibs  GVWR
2_/"The Development of  an  Emission and Fuel Economy Computer Model for
Heavy-Duty Trucks and  Buses," John H. Johnson and Anil B. Jarabekar,
August 1977,  EPA-R803782010.

2/Tlhis is also available  from the Society of Automotive Engineers - SAE
Paper 780630.

3/Mobile Source Emission  Factors EPA-400/9-78-055, March 1978.

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                                   — 5—
                                Table 1
                           Scrappage Rates
Years
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
 10
 11
 12
 13
 14
 15
 16
 17
 18
 19
 20
 21
 22
 23
 24
 25
 26
 27
 28
 29
 30
                 LDT
.00
.03
.04
.05
.05
.05
.05
.05
.05
.04
.04
.04
.04
.04
.03
.04
.04
.04
.03
.04
.03
.03
.03
.02
.02
.02
.01
.01
.02
.02
.00
.03
.07
.12
.17
.22
.27
.32
.37
.41
.45
.49
.53
.57
.60
.64
.68
.72
.75
.79
.82
.85
.88
.90
.92
.94
.95
.96
.98
1.0

A'
.00
.05
.07
.09
.10
.08
.07
.06
.05
.05
.05
.04
.04
.05
.03
.03
.03
.03
.02
.02
.01
.01
.01
.01
-
-
-
HDG
C
.00
.05
.12
.21
.31
.39
.46
.52
.57
.62
.67
.71
.75
.80
.83
.86
.89
.92
.94
.96
.97
.98
.99
1.0




A
.00
.09
.07
.07
.06
.07
.06
:.05
.05
.05
.04
.04
.04
.03
.04
.03
.02
.03
.02
.03
.02
.02
.02
.02
.01
.01
.01
HDD
C
.00
.09
.16
.23
.29
.36
.42
.47
.52
.57
.61
.65
.69
.72
.76
.79
.81
.84
.86
.89
.91
.93
.95
.97
.98
.99
1.0
     LDT:  All  trucks  less than 10,000 Ib GVW: Classes 1 and 2
           Gasoline  trucks above 10,000 Ib GVW: Classes 3-8
           Diesel  trucks above 10,000 Ib GVW: Classes 3-8
HDG:V
HDD:
       A -  annual
       C -  cumulative

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o
Ul
a.
a.
oo


:z
OTd
a:
o


 3
.3
                VEHICLE      SCRRPPRGE

                ( X=LDT  'T=HDG  Z=HDD
              5.00
7.00 ..
9.00
1I.CO
13.00
15.00    17.00
  YEflRS
18.00
SUM
                                23JO
                                                                              25.00
                                                               29.00
                                                               3UOO
                                            FIGURE 1

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     To make the mileage accumulation rate model given in the emission
factors document directly applicable in computing average lifetime
periods three ^adjustments -to: the .-.data were necessary.

     The first adjustment involved extending the mileage accumulation
rate data to cover the same, number of years as the scrappage rate data.
This extension covered 10 years for LLDT and HLDT, 4 years for HDG  and
7 years for HDD.  This extension was accomplished using the "Fraction
Reduction in Vehicle Miles Traveled with Age" data found in the Johnson
and Jambekar report, and assuming (1) that LDTs are classes 1 and 2,  (2)
most HDG vehicles are class 6 and most HDD vehicles are classes 7,  8  and
(3) the fraction reduction decreases a small amount each year after
eighteen years.

     The data actually used in this extension is found in Table 2.  The
manner in which this data.was used is shown in the example below:

                             HDG Vehicles

          Year 21:  (.21) 19,000 miles - 3990 or AOOO  miles.
          Year 22:  (.20) 19,000 miles - 3800 niles.

This same methodology was used to compute the mileage  accumulation  data
found in the emission factors document.  Tables 3, 4,  and 5 contain the
mileage accumulation data extended to the same number  of years as the
scrappage data for LOT, HDG, and HDD.

     The mileage accumulation .data shown in Tables 3,  4, and 5 repre-
sents the number of miles the average vehicle would travel in each  year
of its life.  This data is  useful in that it accounts  for the wide
variety of vehicle usage patterns.

    Secondly, in computing  the average annual mileage accumulation  rate
for a fleet of vehicles the rate at which the vehicles in the fleet are
placed into service must also be considered.  Assuming that vehicles are
sold at a constant rate throughout the model year, and each vehicle
accumulates its annual mileage (Tables 3, 4, 5) at a constant rate, the
desired values of average annual mileage accumulation for the fleet can
be computed.

     If thex-assumptions stated in the previous paragraph are used then
the average vehicle in a  fleet of new vehicles will be six months old at
the end of the  first year and will have accumulated one half of  the
annual mileage  expected in  Tables 3, 4, or 5.  At the end of the second
year,  the average vehicle in  the fleet will be one and one-half  years
old and will have accumulated all of the mileage  expected by the average
vehicle during  its  first  year plus one-half of the second year's mileage.

     Using LLDT as  an  example:

                Year 1:   .5(15,900) = 7,950 miles
                Year 2:   .5(15,900) + .5(15,000) = 15,450 miles
                Year 3:   .5(15,000) + .5(14,000) = 14,500 miles

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                               Table 2
         Fraction Reduction in Vehicle Miles Traveled with Age
Age

21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
LPT

.24
.22
.20
.18
.16
.14
.12
.10
.08
.06
EDG

.21
.20
.19
.18
HDP

.17
.13
.10
.07
.05
.03
.01

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                               Table 3
                                                      <
               Vehicle Mileage Accumulation Rates - LDT
Vehicle
 Year

   1
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  *A - annual
   C - cumulative
LLDT
<6,000
A
15,900
15,000
14,000
13,100
12,200
11,300
10,300
9,400
8,500
7,600
6,700
6,600
6,200
5,900
5,500
5,100
5,000
4,700
4,400
4,000
3,700
3,400
3,100
2,800
2,400
2,100
1,800
1,500
1,200
900
Ibs GVW
C
15,900
30,900
44,900
58,000
70,200
81,500
91,800
101,200
109,700
117,300
124,000
130,600
136,800
142,700
148,200
153,300
158,300
163,000
167,400
171,400
175,100
178,500
181,600
184,400
186,800
188,900
190,700
192,200
193,400
194,300
HLDT
6-8,500 Ibs GVW
A C
15,700
15,700
14,100
12,600
11,300
10,200
9,400
8,600
8,000
7,500
7,100
6,600
6,300
6,000
5,500
5,200
5,000
4,700
4,400
4,100
3,800
3,500
3,100
2,800
2,500
2,200
1,900
1,600
1,300
900
15,700
31,400
45,500
58,100
69,400
79,600
89,000
97,600
105,600
113,100
120,200
126,800
133,100
139,100
144,600
149,800
154,800
159,500
163,900
168,000
171,800
175,300
178,400
181,200
183,700
185,900
187,800
189,400
190,700
191,600

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                               Table 4

                Vehicle Mileage Accumulation Rate - HDG

Vehicle
 Year                          Annual                      Cumulative

  1                             19,000                        19,000
  2                             19,000                        38,000
  3                             17,900                        55,900
  4                             16,500                        72,400
  5                             15,000                        87,400
  6                             13,500                       100,900
  7                             12,000                       112,900
  8                             10,600                       123,500
  9                              9,500                       133,000
  10                              8,600                       141,600
  11                              7,800                       149,400
  12                              7,000                       156,400
  13                              6,300                       162,700
  14                              5,900                       168,600
  15                              5,300                       173,900
  16                              4,900                       178,800
  17                              4,700                       183,500
  18                              4,600                       188,100
  19                              4,400                       192,500
  20                              4,200                       196,700
  21                              4,000                       200,700
  22                              3,800                       204,500
  23                              3,600                       208,100
  24                              3,400                       211,500

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                               Table 5

                vehicle Milage Accumulation Rate -.HDD

Vehicle
 Year                         Annual                        Cumulative

  1                           73,600                          73,600
  2                           73,600                         147,200
  3                           69,900                         217,700
  4                           63,300                         280,400
  5                           56,600                         337,000
  6                           50,000                         387,000
  7                           45,600                         432,600
  8                           41,200                        :473,800
  9                           38,200                         512,000
 10                           36,000                         548,000
 11                           34,600                         582,600
 12                           33,800                         616,400
 13                           33,100                         649,500
 14                           32,400                         681,900
 15                           30,900                         712,800
 16                           28,700                         741,500
 17                           25,700                         767,200
 18                           21,300                         788,500
 19                           18,400                         806,900
 20                           15,400                         822,300
 21                           12,600                         834,900
 22                            9,600                         844,500
 23                            7,400                         851,900
 24                            5,000                         856,900
 25                            3,700                         860,600
 26                            2,200                         862,800
 27                              700                         863,500

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Thus, it can be seen that the average mileage accumulated by a vehicle
in a fleet in any year x will be one-half of the sum of  the mileage
accumulation for year x and year (x-1).   The final fleet average mileage
accumulation rates for LLDT, HLDT, HDG,  and HDD are shown in Tables 6,
7, and 8 and Figures 2, 3, 4, and 5.

     Thirdly, just as the vehicles were introduced at a  constant rate in.
the model year, it can be assumed that the fraction of the total fleet
scrapped in any year is scrapped at a constant rate throughout  that
year.  Thus the total accumulated mileage on the average vehicle when it
is scrapped in year x is one half of the sum of the cumulative  fleet
average annual mileage acccummulation in years x and (x-1).  This  mileage
at scrappage data will not be presented for the four vehicle groups
considered but will be shown in the sample lifetime calculation which
follows.

     D.   Calculations

     As discussed previously, the average lifetime mileage periods can
be expressed mathematically as:

                n
          AIM = I f .m.
                i^l1 1

Since  the scrappage rates and average annual mileage accumulation rates
are now known, the average lifetime in miles, and indirectly in years,
can be obtained.

     For example, consider heavy-duty gas trucks.  As shown in Table 9,
using  the scrappage and  fleet average annual mileage accumulation rates,
the average lifetime mileage is computed at about 114,000 miles.   To
determine the  average  number of years this represents, go back to Table
7 and  find the approximate year by which the average lifetime mileage is
reached.  In this case it is nine years.

     Similar calculations can be  made for LDTs and HDD with the following
results:

               Type Vehicle             Average Lifetime Periods—

           LLDT £ 6,000  Ib GVWR         122,000 miles/ 12 years/j'
           HLDT  6-8,500  Ib GVWR         119,000 miles/12 years/F/6/
           LOT Composite               120,000 miles/12 years — —
           HDG                         114,000 railes/8 years
           HDD                         475,000 miles/9 years
       same scrappage rates xrere used for LLDT and HLDT since these x^ere
 computed for 0-10,000 Ib GVWR vehicles.

 ^/Assumes 55% of the LDTs are 6,000 Ibs  CVWR or  less and  45% are  6,001-
 8,500 Ibs GVWR.  These percentages are taken from the Mobile Source
 Emission Factors document.

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6/TERA, Inc. under contract to Oak Ridge National Laboratory recently
estimated the average LDT lifetime at 122,300-132,000 miles and  11-12
years and the average passenger car lifetime at 87,300-97,300 miles  and
9-10 years. See Vehicle - Miles of Travel Statistics, Lifetime Vehicle
Miles of Travel, and Current State Methods of Estimating Miles of
Travel, ORNL/TM-6327 Special, David L. Greene and Andrew S. Loebl,
February 1979.

7/A11 results rounded up to the nearest thousand miles.

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                                Table  6

         Fleet Average Annual Mileage  Accumulation Rates - LPT
Year

  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
 10
 11
 12
 13
 14
 15
 16
 17
 18
 19
 20
 21
 22
 23
 24
 25
 26
 27
 28
 29
 30
LLDT
Annual
7,950
15,450
14,500
13,550
12,650
11,700
10,800
9,850
8,950
8,050
7,150
6,650
6,400
6,050
5,700
5,300
5,050
4,850
4,550
4,200
3,850
3,550
3,250
2,950
2,600
2,250
1,950
1,650
1,350
1,050

Cumulative
7,950
23,400
37,900
51,450
64,100
75,800
86,600
96,450
105,400
113,450
120,600
127,250
133,650
139,700
145,400
150,700
155,750
160,600
165,150
169,350
173,200
176,750
180,000
182,950
185,550
187,800
189,750
191,400
192,750
193,800
. HLDT
Annual
7,850
15,700
14,900
13,350
11,950
10,750
9,800
9,000
8,300
7,750
7,300
6,850
6,450
6,150
5,750
5,350
5,100
4,850
4,550
4,250
3,950
3,650
3,300
2,950
2,750
2,350
2,050
1,750
1,450
1,100

Cumulative
7,850
23,550
38,450
51,800
63,750
74,500
84,300
93,300
101,600
109,350
116,650
123,500
129,950
136,100
•141,850
147,200
152,300
157,150
161,700
165,950
169,900
173,550
176,850
179,800
182,550
184,900
186,950
188,700
190,150
191,250

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3.00
        LLDT  RVE  MILEflGE  RCCUMULRTION
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00
13.00
15.00     17.00
  YEflRS
19.00
21.00
23.00
25^10
27.00
29.00
31.00
                                      FIGURE" a

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                             HLDT  RVE  MILERGE  RCCUMULRTION
1.00
5.00     7.00  -,.  9.00     11,00     13.00
15.00     17.00
  YEflRS
19.00    • 21.00 ;   23.00    25.00   ' 27.00    29.00     31.C

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                                Table  7

         Fleet Average Annual Mileage  Accumulation Rates - HDG,

Year                          Annual                       Cumulative

  1                            9,500                          9,500
  2                           19,000                         28,500
  3                           18,450                         46,950
  4                           17,200                         64,150
  5                           15,750                         79,900
  6                           14,250                         94,150
  7                           12,750                        106,900
  8                           11,300                        118,200
  9                           10,050                        128,250
 10                            8,950                        137,200
 11                            8,200                        145,400
 12                            7,400                        152,800
 13                            6,650                        159,450
 14                            6,100                        165,550
 15                            5,600                        171,150
 16                            5,100                        176,250
 17                            4,800                        181,050
 18                            4,650                        185,700
 19                            4,500                        190,200
 20                            4,300                        194,500
 21                            4,100                        198,600
 22                            3,900                        202,500
 23                            3,700                        206,200
 24                            3,500                        209,700

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HDG flVE.MILERGE RCCUMULRTION
         13.00
        YEflRS
15.00
17.00
13.00
21,00
23.00
25.00

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                               Table  8

         Fleet Average Annual Mileage  Accmulation Rates - HDD

Year                          Annual                       Cumulative

  1                           36,800                         36,800
  2                           73,600                        110,400
  3                           71,750                        182,150
  4                           66,600                        248,750
  5                           59,950                        308,700
  6                           53,300                        362,000
  7                           47,800                        409,800
  8                           43,400                        453,200
  9                           39,700                        492,900
  10                           37,100                        530,000
  11                           35,300                        565,300
  12                           34,200                        599,500
  13                           33,450                        632,950
  14                           32,750                        665,700
  15                           31,150                        696,850
  16                           29,800                        726,650
  17                           27,200                        753,850
  18                           23,500                        777,350
  19                           19,850                        797,200
  20                           16,900                        814,100
  21                           14,000                        828,100
  22                           11,100                        839,200
  23                            8,500                        847,700
  24                            6,200                        853,900
  25                            4,350                         858,250
  26                            2,950                        861,200
  27                            1,450                         862,650

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HDD flVE '• MI LEflGE  flCCUMULflT I ON
             ts.00
            YERRS

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                                Table 9

               Sample Average Lifetime Calculation - HDG
Year        Scrappage        Total Mileage       Total Mileage
(i)         Rate (fi)        Accumulation     When Scrapped (mi)

 1            .00               9,500               4,750                0
 2            .05              28,500              19,000              950
 3            .07              46,950              37,725            2,641
 4            .09              64,150              55,550            5,000
 5            .10              79,900              72,025            7,203
 6            .08              94,150              87,025            6,962
 7            .07             106,900             100,525            7,037
 8            .06             118,200             112,550            6,753
 9            .05             128,250             123,225            6,161
10            .05             137,200             132,725            6,636
11            .05             145,400             141,300            7,065
12            .04             152,800             149,100            .5,964
13            .04             159,450             156,125            6,245
14            .05             165,550             162,500            8,125
15            .03             171,150             168,350            5,051
16            .03             176,250             173,700            5,211
17            .03             181,050             178,650            5,360
18            .03             185,700             183,375            5,501
19            .02             190,200             187,950            3,759
20            .02             194,500             192,350            3,847
21            .01             198,600             196,550            1,966
22            .01             202,500             200,550            2,006
23            .01             206,200             204,350            2,044
24            .01             209,700             207,950            2,080
              1.00                                                   113,567
 I/See Table 7

 ^/Computed for year (i)  by taking one-half of the  sura of  the average
 mileage accumulation for year i and year (i-1).

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     E. Discussion and Conclusions

     As was stated previously, the lifetime periods calculated  in this
report represent lifetime mileages and years for the average vehicle.
Light-duty trucks and heavy-duty vehicles operate in a wide variety of
applications, 'usage patterns, load variations, environmental conditions,
maintenance schedules and other operator-induced variables which may
significantly affect the representativeness of these figures.   The
analysis in this report gives one method by which the average lifetiae
period can be computed which inherently accounts for the effects of the
variables discussed above. It should be possible for each manufacturer
to deduce a more definitive lifetime period for its vehicles and/or
engines based on the characteristics of each vehicle/engine line and the
vehicle/engine application.  The average lifetime mileage figures
calculated above are useful because they represent the average  for a
wide variety of operating conditions and are characteristic of  the
vehicle classes as a whole.

     The average lifetime periods in this report are based on vehicle
scrappage rates and not engine retirement or rebuild rates. This leads
to the question of the relationship, if any, between average lifetime
periods and average periods to engine retirement or rebuild. The
definition of engine retirement is obvious,1i.e. engine scrappage, but
the definition of engine rebuild is not as clear.  A report prepared by
Arthur D. Little, Inc.jB/ indicates that vehicle/engine manufacturers
consider the average lifetime to be the length of time or distance the
engine may be operated before an "in-frame" overhaul is required.  Such
overhauls include inspection and replacement as required of those parts
which can be removed from the- engine without removing the engine from
the frame, of the vehicle.  Parts included in this type of overhaul
include valves, pistons, piston rings, cylinder liners, and connecting
rod bearings.

     To provide some means of comparison between average lifetime
periods and average periods to overhaul some average period to overhaul
data is shown in Table 10.

     In comparing  these periods no firm conclusions can be draxm.
However, some preliminary conclusions are possible:

      (1)  The average heavy-duty diesel engine undergoes at least one
          and possibly tv/o overhauls prior  to vehicle scraopage'.

      (2)  Heavy-duty gasoline-fueled engines are just as likely scrapped
          as  rebuilt.
 ji/"Heavy-Duty Vehicle Engine Service Accumulation Cycle," Arthur D.
 Little, Inc., April 1977,  EPA Contract  68-03-2372, this is an unapproved
 draft report available in  public docket vOMSAPC  78-4.

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                                          Table 10



                                   Life to Overhaul Data
Engine Type
HDD <>30K GVWR)
250 HP Turbocharged
; Diesel - HDD
HDD
HDD
Medium-Duty
Diesel
Diesel Bus
Light-Duty Gas
HDG
Service Type
linehaul
linehaul
linehaul
urban
urban
urban
variable
variable
Life to Overhaul (miles)
300,000 - 500,000
280,000
500,000
300,000
150,000
125,000 -
200,000
200,000 -
250,000
100,000
100,000
Type of Overhaul
out-of-frame
in-frame
out-of-frame
in-frame
in-frame
out-of-frame
in-frame
out-of-frame
in-frame
I/
!/
I/
I/
I/
11
I-1
I/
- Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE Paper 750128.


II
-Society of Automotive Engineers, SAE Paper 700665.


3/
-  Heavy-Duty Vehicle Engine Service Accumulation Cycle," Arthur D.  Little,  Inc.,

  April 1977, EPA Contract 68-03-2372, an unapproved draft report available  in

  public docket //OMSAPC 78-4.

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                                     -24-
     (3)  Urban usage leads to much shorter lifetime mileage than
          over the road usage.

     (4)  LDTs are more likely retired and .replaced in  lieu of re-
          building the engine.

     The average lifetime periods presented above for light-duty
trucks and heavy-duty vehicles have been computed using sound technical
methods and engineering judgement.  These lifetime mileages and periods
are the values which will be used in future rulemaking  actions to compute
emissions reductions, costs, and cost effectiveness.

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