EPA-AA-SDSB-82-07

                         Technical Report
                  The H-Coal  and  SRC-II Processes
                                by

                           Daniel  Heiser


                           February  1982
                              NOTICE

Technical Reports do not necessarily represent final EPA  decisions
or positions.  They are  intended  to present technical analysis  of
issues using data  which are currently  available.   The purpose  in
the  release  of  such  reports  is  to  facilitate  the  exchange  of
technical  information  and  to  inform  the  public of   technical
developments  which may form the  basis for  a  final EPA  decision,
position or regulatory action.

             Standards Development and Suporrt Branch
               Emission Control Technology Division
           Office of Mobile  Source Air Pollution Control
                Office of Air,  Noise and Radiation
              U. S. Environmental Protection Agency

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                        Table  of Contents

                                                               Page

I.   Introduction  	    1

II.  Financial Input Factors 	    1

III. Process Description and Economic Analysis of   	    6
     the H-Coal and SRC-II Processes

     A.    The H-Coal Process	    7

     B.    The SRC-II Process	,	25

IV.  Summary	47

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                                -1-
I.   Introduction

     As the nation investigates several  alternatives  for producing
synthetic fuels from our coal  reserves,  the  major  question arising
is what is  the  most efficient way  to utilize our  coal  resources.
The answer  involves determining what kind  of  synthetic  fuels  to
produce and what method  should be  used  to produce these  fuels.
Much attention is being  directed  towards  development of synthetic
petroleum  products.   This  report  will   attempt  to  identify  the
products  and  costs  associated with  two  processes  which  produce
synthetic crude  oil  from coal, the  H-Coal process and  the  SRC-II
process.

     The first step  in  this attempt will  be  the identification  of
a set of financial and technical parameters  upon which to base the
comparison of costs  from various  studies  originally  using differ-
ent bases.   Such parameters  include  plant  size,  capital  charge
rates, etc.  This identification will be presented in Section II.
The second  step  will start with a  survey of the  economic studies
of  the  H-Coal  and  SRC-II  processes.    These  studies  will  be
compared  technically and  economically  to  determine which  repre-
sents the best product  and cost estimates for each  process.   Once
the best  study  (or  studies) has  been selected in each  case,  its
financial parameters will  be adjusted to  those  determined in the
previous  section.   The final  product cost  of each process  will
then be estimated in terms  of dollars per million  BTU (mBTU).

     A summary of the  cost estimates will be included   at the end
of this report.

II.  Financial Input Factors

     Differences in  costs   developed  from recent  studies on  coal
liquefaction can result  because of  two  major  factors.    One,  the
costs  may  differ   because   of  differences  in   the   financial
parameters  specified  (such as interest  rates,  debt/equity  ratio,
capital charge  rate, etc.).   Two,   the  costs may differ  because
hardware costs for each phase  of the  process itself  were estimated
using  different  cost  estimation  techniques  or   were   based  on
different process requirements.  The  objective  of  this  section  is
to develop  a  common set of financial and economic  parameters for
all studies  to  eliminate  the first  cause  of  these differences.
Hardware or process costs involve intimate knowledge  of  the  speci-
fic coal  liquefaction  processes  and  the detailed  evaluation  of
each study's procedures in  these areas is  beyond the  scope of  this
report.   However,   some  evaluation  of   each  study's   technical/
economic  accuracy  will  be  made  based  on  the  overall level  of
detail of  the  engineering  design and the source  and data of  the
process parameters.

     To determine a  reasonable range  of the financial  parameters
applicable  to  such   studies,  a survey of recent  studies on  coal

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                                -2-
liquefaction  processes  was   taken.[1,2,3,4,5,6]    Two   financial
scenarios  representing  two somewhat extreme  cases were  found  and
are shown in Table 1.

     The first  scenario represents a situation  where  utility-type
financing  or  loan guarantees  are  available and was taken from  a
report by ESCOE.[3]  Debt  financing is assumed to  be 40  percent of
total  financing.   The  overall   capital   charge  rate   for   this
scenario is  11.5 percent.  The second scenario was taken from  a
Chevron  study[l]  and assumes  total  reliance  on equity  financing.
The overall capital charge rate of this scenario  is 30  percent.

     To  mention  one  aspect of  the parameters  of Table  1,  capital
costs are  often estimated in  terms of "instantaneous"  investment
(i.e., as if the costs would occur all at  once).   In reality,  this
does not take place  as  plants  are designed and  constructed over  a
period of time.  Each of the  two financial  scenarios has  a  differ-
ent  capital  investment  schedule  to  account  for this.    These
investment  schedules,   along   with the  cost  of  interest during
construction  are used  to adjust  the instantaneous capital  cost
estimates to full-life capital  cost investment.  The interest  rate
during construction used  here  will be 6  percent per year and  was
taken from a report by  ICF.[2]   Since all  operations are performed
in constant $1981, this 6 percent per annum opportunity  cost  does
not include the effects of inflation.

     For the purposes of this  report, the  products of  each process
will be  measured in terms of  fuel oil equivalent barrels  (FOEB),
each FOEB  containing 5.9  million  Btu.  This  is  a common unit  for
measuring  the  equivalent  energy output of a  fuel.   To  eliminate
cost differences due to  economies of  scale,  all  plants will  be
normalized to an output  of 50,000 FOEB per calender day (FOEB/D).
Because  capital costs  are usually  not  in direct  proportion  to
their  plant  sizes,  a  scaling  factor  is  needed.   This  scaling
factor is an exponent which is  applied to  the  ratio  of plant  sizes
to determine  the effect  on capital  costs.   The  capital  scaling
factor used  in  this study will be  0.75,  which is  an average  of
factors found from various studies.[2,5,7,8]

     Operating costs need  to be adjusted  differently than  capital
costs.   To adjust labor and supervision costs  to the common 50,000
BFOE/D plant  size,  a  scaling   factor  of  0.2  will  be used.[3,7]
Maintenance  costs,   taxes  and  insurance,  and  general   services,
etc., will be assumed  to be the  same  percentage of plant  invest-
ment  as  specified  by  individual  studies.   The  use   of   coal,
catalysts,  chemicals, utilities,  fuel,  and natural  gas  will  also
be assumed to vary in proportion to plant  size.  Electricity  costs
will be  normalized to  3.5 cents per kilowatt hour.  Also included
in  the   total  annual  operating cost  will be  a  6 percent   real
interest charge on working capital.[2]

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                               -3-
                             Table 1

                   Common Financial Parameters*
Financial Parameters

Discounted Cash Flow
Rate of Return on In-
vestment, Percent

Project Life, Yrs.

Construction Period, Yrs.

Investment Schedule,
%/Yr.

Plant Start Up Ratios

Nominal Debt Interest
Rate, Percent

Investment Tax Credit, %

Tax Life, Yrs.

Debt/Equity Ratio

Resulting Capital Charge
Rate, Percent
Low Cost Case[l]

 Not Available



      20

       4

  9/25/36/30


 50, 90, 100...

      10


       9

      15

    40/60

      11.5
High Cost Case[2]

       15



       20

        4

    10/15/25/50


      50/100
       10

       13

      0/100

        30
*    All calculations  assume  constant  first quarter  1981  dollars.
The interest rates shown do not include the effects of inflation.

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                                -4-
     A common contingency factor will  also  be  used to increase the
comparability  of  the  various  studies.  Historical  evidence  has
shown that a variety of  technical  problems  emerge whenever a plant
is  constructed  from  conceptual  stage  to  the  commercial  stage.
This usually  results  in an  increase  in cost  due  to  the  need for
more expensive  materials of  construction,  more  complex  equipment
specifications  and sometimes  the  need  for additional  processing
equipment.  The contingency  factor  to  be  used  in  this  analysis
will be  15  percent, based  on a survey  of  several studies.[2,3,9,
10,11,12]

     Costs  for  feedstock  and by-product  credits  will  also  be
normalized.  The cost of  bituminous coal (in  1981 dollars) will be
assumed to be $27.50 per ton.  The cost of subbituminous  coal and
lignite  will  be  assumed  to  be  $17  per  ton and  $10  per  ton,
respectively.   By-product credits  for sulfur, ammonia, and phenol
will be  normalized to  $50  per ton,   $180  per ton,  and  $113  per
barrel, respectively.

     The inflation  rate  for adjusting the cost of  studies to 1981
dollars  will  be  based  on  the chemical  engineering  plant  cost
index.   For 1976, 1977,  1978,  1979, and 1980,  the resulting infla-
tion rates were 5 percent,  6 percent,  7 percent,  9 percent,  and 9
percent, respectively.   The  only  real cost increases  projected in
this study were  for fuel oil and natural gas  used to operate the
plant.    These  were estimated  to  be   2 percent  per  year.   These
common technical/economic factors are  summarized in Table 2.

     While all  these  adjustments will increase  the  comparability
of overall  product  costs, they do not address the differences in
the  products  produced by the  various synfuel  processes.   It  is
generally appropriate to attempt to allocate the  costs of  process-
ing  in  accordance  to  the  expected market  values  of the various
products.  To  do otherwise  would  be   to mislead  oneself  that  the
premium products of a process  were  relatively inexpensive (while
the  low  quality products  would also  be misleadingly  expensive).
Thus, some relationship  between the values of  the various  fuels is
needed in order to determine  representative  and  comparable  costs
for each fuel.

     A product  value  approach will be utilized to estimate  costs
for  individual  products.   This  technique  assumes   that  future
energy prices for  particular products will  maintain a fixed  ratio
to each other.  All prices  are normalized relative to a  reference
product, which  here  is   chosen to be  gasoline.   A  relationship
between various fuels  similar to that reported in the ICF report
will be used and is as follows:

     1.     If  the cost of unleaded regular gasoline is $G/mBtu,

     2.     The cost of No. 2 fuel oil  is (0.82)($G)/mBtu,  and

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                                —5—
                              Table  2

                   Process  Cost  Inputs and Other
                   Factors  Common  to All  Studies
Cost Inputs and Other Factors

Product Yield

Coal - Bituminous
     - Subbituminous
     - Lignite

Operating Cost
  a)  Utilities
  b)  Interest on Working Capital

  c)  Fuel Cost

Scaling Factors
  a)  Capital Costs
  b)  Labor Costs
  c)  Maintenance, Taxes,
      Insurance, General
      Services, etc.
  d)  Coal, Catalysts and
      Chemicals, Utilities,
      Fuel, Natural Gas

By-Product Credit
  a)  Sulfur
  b)  Ammonia
  c)  Phenol

Contingency Factor

Inflation Rate
  a)  1976
  b)  1977
  c)  1978
  d)  1979
  e)  1980

Real Cost Increases (%/year)
  a)  Fuel Oil
  b)  Natural Gas
      Value
50,000 BPCD

$27.50/wet ton
$17.00/wet ton
$10.00/wet ton
$0.035/kw-HR
6% of working
capital per year.
$35/bbl
      0.75
      0.20
Same percentage
of plant invest-
ment as specified
by each individ-
ual study.
Amount varies
proportionally
to plant size
$50/ton
$180/ton
$113/bbl

       15%
        5%
        6%
        7%
        9%
        9%
        2%
        2%

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                                -6-
     3.    The cost of LPG Is (0.77)($G)/mBtu.[2]

Since unleaded premium gasoline is produced in  some cases  a  rela-
tionship  between this fuel  and regular gasoline  is also  needed.
Since a  history of  the relationship between  these two fuels  was
not  readily available,  a  history  of  the  cost  ratio  of  leaded
premium  to leaded  regular  gasoline was  used.  This  relationship
indicated  a cost ratio of 1.075.[13]  This product  cost  relation-
ship was then applied to premium and regular unleaded gasoline.

     A price relationship between SNG and  the reference was also
needed.  This may be  determined  by assuming that SNG will  have  the
same relationship to  gasoline  as natural gas.   However, the  well-
head price of natural gas is just in the process  of being  deregu-
lated; therefore,  it  is  incorrect  to  use  the  current  gasoline/
natural gas price relationship.   Instead,  a method used by Mobil,
and a method which relates  the  natural  gas  price to that of  No.  2
fuel  oil  will   be  utilized.    These  two  methods  are  described
below.

     In a  study  examining the production of gasoline from  coal  one
of  the  scenarios examined  by  Mobil was  the  co-production of  SNG
and  gasoline.[14]   To  obtain  a  realistic  value  for  the  SNG
produced, Mobil  estimated the cost of SNG from a coal-gasification
plant producing  essentially  100 percent  SNG.   Using this cost  for
SNG, they  then allocated  the remaining cost to  the  gasoline.   The
result was that the SNG cost 77  percent as much  as the  gasoline on
an  energy basis (i.e.,  it was cheaper  on   an energy  basis   to
produce SNG solely than to co-produce SNG and  gasoline).

     Another technique to   obtain  a  representative  SNG/gasoline
cost relationship is  to assume  that  SNG has the same value as  No.
2 fuel oil.  This is  reasonable  since both have  at least one  large
common market  in  industrial  and domestic  heating.   Using this
method,  the  cost ratio of  SNG  to  gasoline  would be  the  same  as
that above for  No. 2 fuel oil,  0.82.

     Since the two techniques yielded very similar results, it  was
decided to average  the two  cost ratios.   Therefore,  the  SNG/un-
leaded gasoline cost ratio used will be 0.80.

     These relative  product values  will  not   actually  be  used  in
this report, since the refining  of the H-Coal  and  SRC-II  syncrudes
into usable products  is beyond  the scope of this  report.   A  later
study will address  the refining of syncrudes and will use  these
product values  to allocate costs appropriately.

III. Process Description  and Economic Analysis  of the H-Coal  and
     SRC-II Processes'

     Two  general  processes  have  been  historically   studied   to
convert coal  into  liquid fuels.   One is  indirect liquefaction,

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                                -7-
which  is  essentially  coal  gasification  followed  by  catalytic
reaction  of  the  produced  synthesis  gas.   The second  is  direct
liquefaction which  involves direct hydrogenation  of  coal to  form
liquids.

     Looking  at direct  liquefaction  processes,   there  are  three
processes  receiving the most  consideration today.   Two of  these
are  the  Solvent  Refined  Coal  II  (SRC-II)  and   the  Exxon  Donor
Solvent  (EDS).   Both are  considered  solvent extraction  processes
which use  coal-derived  liquids containing  hydroaromatic  compounds
to  transfer  hydrogen  to  the  coal,   thereby producing   liquid
hydrocarbons.   Unconverted  coal,  after   separation  from   the
extract, may be used to generate the necessary  hydrogen.   Hydrogen
may also  be  obtained from  gases produced during  processing,  from
additional coal,  or heavy  petroleum  products.  The  third  direct
liquefaction process is  the H-Coal process, which is a  catalytic
liquefaction technique whereby hydrogen  is  added  to the coal  with
the aid  of a catalyst.   This  reaction occurs  in  the liquid  phase
with particulate catalysts dispersed or present  in  a fixed  bed.[15]

     The cost estimates of  the products derived from two of  these
processes will  be discussed in detail below.   First,  a  cost  anal-
ysis  of  the H-Coal  process  will  be  presented,  followed  by  a
similar analysis for  SRC-II process.  A product cost for each  of
these processes  (in terms  of  dollar  per million  BTU of  product)
will be  determined  from a  critique  of the studies examining  each
of  these processes.  Those product costs  best representing 'each
process  will then  be  adjusted  according  to  the common  set  of
economic and financial  parameters determined above.   Analysis  of
the EDS process will be performed in a separate  report.

     A.    The H-Coal Process

     The H-Coal  process liquifies coal  to either boiler  fuel  or
synthetic crude in  the  presence  of an added particulate  catalyst.
To  produce synthetic  crude instead of boiler  fuel, more  hydrogen
is  added  to  the slurry  and reactor residence times are  increased.
It  was  developed   by  Hydrocarbon  Research,  Inc.  (HRI)  and  was
selected by  the Department  of  Energy for further  development  on a
pilot-plant  scale   with  the participation  of  Ashland  Oil,  Mobil
Oil,  Standard  Oil  of  Indiana,   Continental  Coal   Development
Company, the Commonwealth of Kentucky, and  Electric Power Research
Institute (EPRI).   Operation of the pilot plant began in June  1980
with a  design  capacity  of 600  tons  per  day  (TPD)  feed  coal  at
Cattlesburg,  Kentucky.[10,15]

     There are  five major  studies  which analyze  the  cost of  the
H-Coal liquefaction process.[2,3,9,10,11]   These five studies  were
performed  by Fluor[9],  ICF[2],  the  Engineering Societies  Commis-
sion  on  Energy,  Inc.  (ESCOE)[3],  and  Ashland  Oil  (two  stud-
ies). [10,11]   Each  study  estimates  capital  costs,  operating  and
maintenance  costs,  feedstock  rate,  product  mix,   and  by-product
credits.

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                                -8-
     Each  study will  be  examined  in the  order described  above.
After each study has  been  initially critiqued,  the  studies  will be
comparatively  critiqued to  determine the  best  single cost  esti-
mate.  This  best  cost  estimate will then be normalized  for  size,
inflation and  economics according to the discussion in Section II
above.

     1.    Fluor[9]

     This study was  prepared by Fluor Engineers  and  Constructors,
Inc.  for  the  Electric  Power  Research   Institute  (EPRI).    Fluor
obtained  field data  from  Hydrocarbon Research  for the  technical
and economic evaluation of the H-Coal process.   Fluor's  scope-of-
work included  development  of  the  overall plant  configuration  for
large  commercial  facilities  to produce  hydrocarbon   liquids  from
14,448 TPD of  two  different  coals,  Illinois No.  6 (bituminous)  and
Wyodak (subbituminous).  Actual production  from these feed  rates
were estimated  by  Fluor to  be 43,000 barrels  per  day (BPD)  from
the  Illinois  No.   6  coal,  and 35,000 BPD  from  the  Wyodak.   The
plants were operated  in the  syncrude mode  and employed the latest
yield data generated  by HRI's  process development unit at Trenton,
New Jersey at the time the  report was written (Dec.  1979).

     Fluor prepared detailed material and energy  balances for each
of  the  two cases.   Each  case was  designed to  be  self-sufficient
with respect to its internal  requirements of hydrogen, fuel,  elec-
tric power, steam, and  other  utilities.   Hydrogen was  produced  via
the gasification of vacuum bottoms using Texaco  technology,  while
electric power was produced from  combined-cycle  gas turbines  fired
by process-derived fuel gas.

     In  each  case, Fluor's  work  showed  that  the  major products
produced  included  naphtha,  turbine oil   and  distillate  fuel  oil,
while  the Illinois  case   also produced  a   substantial  amount  of
LPG.  The breakdown  of  products for  each case  are shown in  Table
3.   Overall thermal  efficiencies   (using  higher  heating   values
(HHV)) of 68.4  and 60.9 percent were determined by Fluor  for  the
Illinois and Wyodak cases,  respectively.

     Fluor stated  that researchers have generally  observed  that
the Wyodak  coal is not as  favorable to use  in the  liquefaction
process  as  is  the Illinois  coal.   Although  this  phenomenon  is
some- what less observed  in  the  catalytic  H-Coal process,  use of
the Wyodak coal is still  considered economically inferior  to  use
of the Illinois No. 6 coal.   Fluor  stated that  this may be  related
to  the  higher  oxygen  content  of  the  coal  that reacts  to  form
water,   resulting  in  increased  hydrogen  consumption.   However,
although economic considerations for Wyodak coal  are not  favorable
at present, Fluor believed that future commercial developments  may
occur if  conditions  are  found that favor  oxygen  removal  in  the
form of carbon monoxide.   For  purposes of this  analysis,  then,  the
Wyodak case  will  still be presented, though it should  be  remem-

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                               -9-
                                     Table 3

                 Product Slate of the H-Coal  Liquefaction Process
                     (Barrels Per Day of Fuel Oil Equivalent*)
Product
Feed Rate
(Tons/Day)
Naptha
Turbine Oil
Distillate
Fuel Oil
Butane
Propane
LSR Gasoline
Reformate
Total
By-Products
Sulfur (TPD)
Phenols (TPD)
Ammonia (TPD)
Fluor[9] ICF[2] ESCOE[3]
Illinois Wyodak Illinois Wyodak Illinois
No. 6 Coal Coal No. 6 Coal Coal No. 6 Coal
14,448 14,448 16,370 20,548 25,000
13,392 15,952 15,173 22,700 31,900
16,235 12,366 18,395 17,600
8,761 6,842 9,926 9,700 24,300
3,350 — 3,796
2,392 — 2,710
—
— — — — —
44,130 35,160 50,000 50,000 56,200

493
40
165
Ashland [10, 11]
Illinois
No. 6 Coal
18,000


26,300
4,300
6,500
3,750
11,500
52,350

535
100
200
Pipeline Gas
(MMSCFD)

Ethane (MMSCFD)
56.3
32
     One fuel oil equivalent barrel contains 5.9 million Btu.

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                               -10-
bered that it assumes that  a  number  of technological breakthroughs
will occur.

     The capital cost estimates  made by Fluor for an  Illinois  No.
6  and  a  Wyodak  coal  liquefaction  plant  were  determined  in
mid-1979 dollars.   The  capital costs  for  the Illinois coal  plant
was  based  on  an  Illinois  location  on a  clear and  level  site,
receiving coal  by  railway.   The  capital  cost for the Wyodak coal
plant assumed  that  coal would  be  received  via conveyer from  a
nearby surface  mine.   The  total  capital  requirement  estimated  by
Fluor  included   total   plant   investment,   prepaid   royalties,
preproduction   costs,   working   capital,   initial   chemical   and
catalyst charge,   allowance  for  funds during  constructions,  and
land.    The   total  plant   investment   included  process   plant
investment   and general   (or  offsite)  facility  costs  (excluding
contingency).   The process  plant  investment included  the  total
constructed costs  of  all onsite  processing and  generating  units,
including  all   direct  and  indirect   construction  costs  and  all
engineering  and home  office  fees.   Taxes  (5   percent  of  total
material) were also included.

     Fluor's estimates  for  the  total capital costs  for  both  the
Illinois and Wyodak coal liquefaction plants are  shown  in  Table
4.   The  total  instantaneous   capital cost  were estimated  to  be
$1194 million and  $1262 million  (without a  contingency factor)  for
Illinois and  Wyodak coal,  respectively.    The  operating  costs  as
estimated by Fluor were  divided  into  fixed and  variable  costs,  to
be  estimated  on a first year  basis.  The fixed operating  costs
included operating  labor, maintenance, and overhead charges.   The
average  labor  rate was  estimated  at  $12.50 per  hour  (in mid-1979
dollars).  Annual maintenance costs were estimated as  a  percentage
of the installed capital  cost  of  the  facilities.  Overhead charges
included administrative and support labor,  and general and admini-
strative expenses.  The variable  operating  costs  included the cost
of  raw  water,   consumable catalysts  and  chemicals, and  ash  dis-
posal.   By-product  credits  included  the value of ammonia and  raw
phenols.

     The fixed  and  variable   operating  costs  for   both  types  of
plants are shown  in Table  5.   The  fixed  operating costs  were
estimated to be $66 million  and  $70  million  per year,   while  the
variable operating costs, excluding  feedstock,  were  estimated  to
be $15 million  and $14  million per  year,  for Illinois and  Wyodak
coal, respectively.

     2.     ICF[2]

     An investigation of  the  ICF  study found  that all  process cost
estimates were  taken  directly from the Fluor study above.   These
process costs were  then  adjusted  by ICF to a production  of  50,000
barrels per day.   ICF  used  an average scaling  factor of  0.830  to
adjust capital costs.  ICF also adjusted all  product costs accord-
ing  to  their own  financial  inputs and assumptions.   ICF did  not
perform any additional research into the process  itself.

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                               -11-
                              Table  4

         Capital  Costs  -  H-Coal  (As  Estimated  by  Fluor[9])
          	(Mid-1979 Dollars)	

                           Illinois #6 Coal         Wyodak Coal
                           (million dollars)     (million dollars)

Total Plant Investment           904.7                  943.3

Prepaid Royalites                  3.3                    3.6

Preproduction Costs               32.5                   34.7 .

Inventory Capital                 42.7                   40.3
(Working Capital)

Initial Catalysts                  6.9                    7.3
and Chemicals

Allowance for Funds              201.9                  231.7
During Construction

Land                               1.8                    1.8

  Total Capital Requirement      $1194                  $1262

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                               -12-
                              Table  5

                Fixed and Variable Operating Costs
                    (As Estimated by Fluor)[9]
                 	(Mid-1979 Dollars)	

Fixed Operating Costs,
    ^Million/Year                  Illinois #6  Coal     Wyodak Coal

Operating Labor                          9.0                9.0

Maintenance Labor                       14.3               15.5

Maintenance Materials                   21.4               23.2

Administrative and Support Labor         7.0                7.3

General and Administrative Expense      13.9               14.7

Total Fixed Operating and
  Maintenance, First Year               65.6               69.7

Variable Operating Costs
Excluding Feedstock (First
  Year), ^Million/Year

Water                                    1.0                0.9

Catalysts                               11.9               12.1

Ash Disposal                             2.3                1.4

Total Variable (excluding feedstock)    15.2               14.4

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                               -13-
     ICF's product slate  is  shown in Table 3.   It  is the  same  as
Fluor's product slate, scaled up  to  a  production of  50,000 barrels
per day.   ICF's  capital costs  (without  contingency)  are  shown  in
Table  6.   Note that,  unlike Fluor,  ICF  does not include  prepro-
duction costs,  inventory  capital,  initial catalyst  and  chemical
costs,   allowance  for  funds  during  construction and  land  costs.
ICF did not explain the elimination of these costs.

     The fixed and variable  operating  costs are shown in  Table  7.
All costs  are  in  mid-1980 dollars.  According to ICF, the capital
costs  of  an  H-Coal plant  were  estimated to  be  $1101 million and
$1520  million  for Illinois  and  Wyodak coal,  respectively.   Total
operating  costs   were  estimated  to   be   $86.2  million  and  $91.4
million for Illinois #6 and Wyodak coal,  respectively.

     3.    ESCOE[3]

     Similar to ICF, ESCOE also used  the  Fluor  study as  a refer-
ence for their process cost  estimates.   In  addition, ESCOE derived
many   of   their   cost  estimates   from  a   1976   Bureau   of  Mines
report. [16]  ESCOE scaled their cost  estimates  to  a feed  rate  of
25,000 tons of coal per day, which leads  to a. production of 31,900
FOEB/D naphtha, 24,300  FOEB/D  fuel oil,  and  56.3 million  standard
cubic  feet per  day  (mSCF/D)  natural gas  as  shown in Table  3.
ESCOE  also adjusted  costs according  to their own financial param-
eters  and  according  to their specified  product  values  with  gaso-
line as  a reference price.   ESCOE  did  not  specify  what  type  of
coal was used as feed.

     ESCOE estimated the  capital  costs to be  $1134 million in 1978
dollars.   ESCOE  only  broke  down  these  capital  costs   by  process
unit.   Fixed  and  variable operating  costs were estimated to  be
$103  million  and  $178  million,  respectively.   ESCOE  did not
include other  operating  costs   such as  water   and  ash  disposal.
ESCOE's cost estimates are shown in Table 8.

     4.    Ashland Oil[10,11]

     Ashland Oil  recently released  two  studies  on the  commercial
H-Coal liquefaction plant  which is planned  to be built in Breckin-
ridge  County,  Kentucky  (and  hence   is  called  the  Breckenridge
Project).   The first study was an in-depth analysis of  the  tech-
nology, economics,  and  environmental  impact  of  the H-Coal  plant
(released  in  March,  1981).[10]   The second  study  was  an  updated
version of the   first  study,   and was  presented at  an  American
Petroleum Institute meeting in Chicago on May  13, 1981.[11]

     According to the  Ashland  reports,  the  Breckinridge  Project
facilities will be owned  by  the  Breckinridge  Energy  Company (BEG),
a partnership which  currently  includes Ashland Oil,  Inc.,  through
its  subsidiary,  Ashland  Synthetic Fuels,  Inc.  (ASFI);  and  Airco
Inc.,  through its  subsidiary,  Airco Energy Company,  Inc.  The

-------
                               -14-
                             Table 6

         Capital Costs - H-Coal (As Estimated by ICF)[2]
              (Mid-1980 Dollars. Millions  of  Dollars)
Plant Selection
Coal Preparation
Liquefaction
Light Ends Processing
Hydrogen Plant
Oxygen Plant
Emission Control System
Effluent Control System
Storage
Utilities
Offsites
Prepaid Royalties
Total*
Illinois
No. 6 Coal
45
345
41 .
206
100
21
40
48
156
94
5
1101
Wyodak
Coal
96
464
15
304
119
17
34
25
188
250
8
1520
*  Does not include contingency.

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                    -15-
                   Table /

Fixed and Variable Operating Costs for H-Coal
(As Estimated by ICF) (Mid-1980 Dollars)[2]
Fixed Operating Costs,
^Million/Year
Operating Labor
Overhead
Maintenance
Total, First Year
Variable
Water
Power
Catalysts and Chemicals
Ash Disposal
Total (excluding feedstock)
Illinois #6 Coal
8.2
22.6
38.6
69.4
1.2
0
14.7
0.9
16.8
Wyodak Coal
8.2
24.0
41.9
74.1
1.3
0
17.3
0
17.3

-------
                               -16-
                              Table 8

           Fixed  and  Variable  Operating  Costs for H-Coal
           (As estimated by ESCOE) (Mid-1978 Dollars)[3]
Capital Cost

Plant Capital Requirements

  Coal Preparation
  H2 or Gasification
  02 Plant
  Gas Shift
  Acid Gas and Sulfur Plants
  Reactor Section
  Gas Plant
  Pollution Control

    Total

  Other

    Total Capital Cost

Fixed Operating Costs
  ($ Millions/Year)

Labor

Maintenance

Local Tax and Insurance

  Total, First Year

Variable

Catalyst and Chemicals

  Total
Illinois No.  6
     484
     158
      87
      35
      57
     210
      25
    	40

     696

     438

    1134
    12.2

    34.3

    57.0

   103.5



     7.0

     7.0

-------
                               -17-
venture will  eventually  be  expanded  to  at  least  five  partners.
Under  the  partnership  agreement,  and consistent  with the  policy
followed during the initial effort,  ASFI will be  the  operator with
responsibility  for  managing  detailed  engineering,   procurement,
construction,  and operations.

     The plant is to be located on  the Ohio  River  near Addison,  in
western Kentucky.  Work that is currently underway  at  the location
includes soil survey work, baseline  environmental  data collection,
and  socioeconomic  studies.    According   to  Ashland,   preliminary
studies indicate  that no  serious  environmental or  socio-economic
problems exist.   Ashland  stated  that discussions  with  local  and
state  officials  make  it  clear that  support  from these  groups  is
strong.  Construction of  the  commercial  plant was  projected  by
Ashland  to  begin  in  1983.   Ashland  estimated  that   by  1988
construction  should  be  completed  followed  by efforts  for  plant
startup.  The plant was projected to be operating  at  full capacity
in 1991.

     In its base  case configuration Ashland designed the  plant  to
operate on  18,000 TPD  of washed  Illinois  no.  6  coal  and  other
various Illinois Basin coals.  The  product slate  is shown in Table
3.  The LSR gasoline  and  reformate  are  already refined  products,
while  the  rest of the  product slate must  undergo further  refin-
ing.   The  production  of  by-products include  100  TPD of  phenols,
200 TPD of ammonia, 535 TPD  of sulfur, 32 mSCF/D of  pipeline gas,
and  8 mSCF/D  of  ethane.  Alternative  product  slates  presently
being  evaluated  by  Ashland  would  provide  for  the  additional
production  of  benzene,  toluene,  and xylene.  The  thermal  effi-
ciency of the process was estimated to be  63.1 percent.[17]

     In  their  first   study,   Ashland's   design  efforts  included
extensive use of computer  simulations based  upon  experimental data
and  has  produced what  they  believe  to  be  the  most  accurate
information  on  the  Breckenridge   project   presently  available.
Ashland  presented costs  based on   estimates completed  in  1980,
which  were  then  adjusted  to   1981  dollars according  the  Gross
National Product  (GNP)  deflator.   In their  second study,  Ashland
determined  costs  directly in  1981  dollars  based  on  more  recent
process data.   Because the  costs   in the  second  study  represent
more recent estimates and are  based  on the most recent data, these
costs  will  be  presented   below  instead  of  those  from  the  first
study.

     Total  instantaneous  plant  capital   cost was  estimated  by
Ashland  to  be  $3.3  billion.   Ashland  included  in   this  cost  a
contingency for  construction  costs   overruns  of  approximately  15
percent plus  a provision  for  working capital.   A summary  of  the
project capital cost is shown in Table 9.

     This capital  cost  included the  cost  of a reformer  to  refine
light  naphtha  to reformate.   This  cost  has  not  been included  in

-------
                        -18-
                       Table  9

                 Total  Project  Costs
(As estimated by Ashland)  (January, 1981 Dollars)[11]
     Direct Costs:

       Liquefaction Plant
       Oxygen and Hydrogen Plants
       Other Refinery Units
       Tankage, Interconnecting Piping
       Coal Handling, Boilers
       Wastewater/Solids Treating
       Other Offsites

        Total

     Field Indirects
     Miscellaneous Field Costs
     Engineering and Fee
     Contingency

        Total Installed Cost

     Working Capital

        Total Project Cost
                                           ^Million
 690
 320
 125
 120
 360
 200
 185

2000

 400
  80
 280
 400
3160

 140

3300

-------
                               -19-
the  other previous  studies  (Fluor,  IGF,  and ESCOE).   (A  later
report  will  consider  the  cost  of  refining  syncrudes  and  will
consider the degree to which  the  various  synthetic  petroleum frac-
tions have been refined at the  liquefaction plant.)  A  breakdown
of the cost of the general  processing units  is also shown in Table
9.

     Total  annual  operating  costs  were  estimated  to   be  $126
million and are  summarized  in Table 10.  Excluded  by  Ashland from
the  annual  operating costs are  the coal  feedstock costs and  the
capital recovery charges.

     5.    Adjustment and Comparison of  Each Study

     The costs  presented  in each of the four H-Coal analyses will
be adjusted in this section to the  common  plant  size and  financial
parameters as  discussed  in  section  II above.   For  convenience,
capital costs will  be left as  instantaneous costs until  the most
representative  study  is  selected.   Coal  costs  and  by-product
credits will also not be included until  later.

     Once each  of the  above four analyses have been adjusted,  the
most representative study will  be determined.   This selected best
study  will  then  be  adjusted  for  lifetime   capital  costs  and
calendar  day  operations,  with  feedstock  costs  and  by-product
credits also included.  A product cost  will  then  be determined for
this selected study.   The  capital and operating costs, as origin-
ally  estimated  by  each study,  are summarized for  convenience  in
Table 11.

     The  adjusted product  slates  and  costs  for  each  study  are
shown in Table  12 and  13, respectively.  With  respect  to  the Fluor
study,  instantaneous  capital costs were  adjusted  with a scaling
factor  of 0.75  and  a  15  percent  contingency.   Labor costs  were
adjusted with a scaling factor  of  0.2.  Water,  catalyst, and  ash
disposal costs  were  adjusted  proportionally to plant  size.   Work-
ing  capital  was  estimated at  6 percent  of  operating  and  main-
tenance  costs.    Remaining   costs  were assumed  to  be  the  same
percentage of  plant  investment  for  each  plant  size.  All  costs
were inflated from 1979 to 1981 dollars.

     Since the  costs estimated by ICF already  presumed a  producton
of  50,000 BFOE/D,  their  costs  did not have  to  be  adjusted  for
plant size.  Only a  15 percent contingency was  incorporated along
with  inflation  from 1980  to  1981  dollars.   Also,  in determining
maintenance labor costs  it  was  assumed that maintenance  labor  was
40 percent of total maintenance  costs,  the same  percentage used in
the Fluor study.

     ESCOE's cost estimates had to  be  scaled  down from  a produc-
tion of  56,200  FOEB/D to the desired production  of 50,000 FOEB/D.
The   scaling   factors  described   in    Section    II   were   used

-------
                               -20-
                             Table 10

                    Annual Operating Costs[11]
                     (January, 1981 Dollars)

Power Annual Catalyst and Chemicals                     $ 4,623,500

Direct Labor and Supervision                             10,697,800

Plant Maintenance (Includes Labor,                       43,935,400
Supervision, Materials and Contractor
Maintenance)

Payroll Overhead and Operating Supplies                  12,515,100

Indirects, G&A                                            7,016,700

Local Taxes and Insurance                                47,511,500


   Total*                                               126,300,000
     Includes a 15 percent contingency.

-------
                          -21-
                                Table 11

             Summary of H-Coal Capital and Operating Costs,
                         As Estimated by Each Study
Flour
Coal Type
Year
Thermal
Efficiency
Total Production
(BPD/FOE)
Capital Cost
(^Million)
Plant
Other
Operating Costs
($Million/Yr)*
Fixed
Variable
Illinois
No. 6 Coal
Mid-1979

68.4%

44,130
905
289

65.6
15.2
Wyodak
Coal
Mid-1979

60.9%

35,160
943
319

69.7
14.4
ICF
Illinois
No. 6 Coal
Mid-1980

68.4%

50,000
846
255

69.4
16.8

Wyodak
Coal
Mid-1980

60.9%

50,000
1074
446

74.1
17.3
ESCOE
Illinois
No. 6 Coal
Mid-1978

NA

56,200
696
438

103.5
7.0
Ashland
Illinois
No. 6 Coal
1st Q 1981

63.1%

52,350
2000
1300

121.7
4.6
Excludes feedstock costs.

-------
                               -22-
                                     Table 12

                          Adjusted H-Coal Product Slates
                   Based on 50,000 BPD/FOE Commerical  Plant  Size
Product
BPD/FOE
Naptha
Turbine Oil
Distillate
Fuel Oil
Butane
Propane
LSR Gasoline
Ref ormate
Total
By-Products
Sulfur
Phenols
Ammonia
Pipeline Gas
Flour
Illinois Wyodak
No. 6 Coal Coal
15,173 22,685
18,395 17,585
9,926 9,730
3,796
2,710
—
— —
50,000 50,000
(TPD)
559 58
45 23
187 166
— —
ICF
Illinois Wyodak
No. 6 Coal Coal
15,173 22,700
18,395 17,600
9,926 9,700
3,796
2,710
—
— • —
50,000 50,000

559 58
45 23
187 166
— —
, Ashland
Illinois
ESCOE No. 6 Coal
28,380
—
21,620 26,300
4,300
6,500
3,750
11,500
50,000 50,000

N/A 535
N/A 100
N/A 200
56 32
(MMSCFD)

Ethane (MMSCFD)

-------
            -23-
                  Table 13

       Adjusted H-Coal Cost Estimates
Based on 50,000 BPD/FOE Commerical Plant Size
Flour
Illinois
No. 6 Coal
Capital Costs
(^Millions of
1981 Dollars)
Plant Investments 1,180
Other 382
Contingency 234
Total 1,796
Operating Costs
(^Millions of
1981 Dollars)
Fixed
Operating
Labor & Main-
tenance Labor 30.4
Other 55.2
Variable
Water,
Catalyst, etc. 20.5
Working
Capital 6.4
Total 112.5
Coal Feed Rate 16,370
ICF
Wyodak Illinois Wyodak
Coal No. 6 Coal Coal
1,459 922 1,171
494 288 486
293 180 248
2,246 1,380 1,906

31.2 25.8 27.2
69.9 49.9 53.6

20.5 18.3 18.9
7.3 5.6 6.0
128.9 99.6 105.7
20,550 16,370 20,550
Ashland
Illinois
ESCOE No. 6 Coal
811 1,740
510 1,130
198 430
1,519 3,300

32.2 28.3
82.4 93.4

7.9 4.6
7.4 7.6
129.9 133.9
22,242 18,000

-------
                               -24-
with a 15 percent contingency on capital  costs.   Maintenance  labor
was also estimated at 40 percent of total maintenance cost.

     The total production  in  the  Ashland studies is very close  to
the desired production  rate of  50,000 FOEB/D and, for purposes  of
this study, will not be  modified.  Also,  all  of Ashland's  costs
were already  in  1981  dollars and  included a  15 percent  contin-
gency,  so they required no further adjustment.

     Of  the  above  four sets  of  studies,  ICF  and  ESCOE  did not
perform their own engineering cost estimates.  ICF based all  their
process cost estimates  on  the Fluor estimates,  while ESCOE incor-
porated some of  Fluor's work along  with a  Bureau  of Mines  study
into their overall  cost estimate.  Thus,  the ICF  and ESCOE  studies
will not be assessed  at this  point until the firsthand studies  of
Fluor and Ashland are further  analyzed.

     Both Fluor's and Ashland's estimates will be briefly  reviewed
here.   In  the   Fluor   study,   two  types  of   coal  feeds   were
considered, Illinois  No.  6  coal  and  Wyodak coal,  while  Ashland
only considered costs for Illinois No. 6  coal as  feed.  Of  the two
sets of  studies, the Ashland analyses should  represent  the  most
accurate process costs  of H-Coal  liquefaction,   primarily  because
the Ashland  studies are more recent  (1981).   Although  the  Fluor
study is fairly  recent  (1979),  the projected technology and  costs
have  changed  dramatically  even  within  two   years  (i.e.,   from
1979-1981).  Costs  associated with  the  updated  technological and
process developments have  escalated  much more  rapidly than infla-
tion as indicated by  the  differences in the costs shown in Tables
4  and  9.   The  Ashland estimates will  be  selected as  the   more
representative of the two.

     The ICF  and  ESCOE studies  should  also  be eliminated   from
further  consideration for  the  same  reason.   The   ICF  study was
based on the Fluor  estimates  which are  now out  of  date.   ESCOE's
cost estimates were based on Fluor's  estimates  and an even  older
1976 Bureau of Mines report with costs simply inflated to  the year
of ESCOE's study, or 1978.

     Because the Fluor  estimates for  the Illinois  coal case  were
eliminated above due to outdated cost  information,  their estimates
for the  Wyodak coal case  should  also be  eliminated for the  same
reason.  However since  Ashland  has not  examined  Wyodak coal  as  a
feed,  there would  appear  to  be no  up-to-date  estimate of H-coal
process costs for Wyodak coal.  The only  thing that  can be  said  at
this time is that it  is likely  that the  processing  of Wyodak coal
would  be  more expensive  and  less efficient than   Illinois  coal,
based on the Fluor results.

     An overall  product cost  will now be estimated  for the H-Coal
process based on the Ashland  estimates.   The instantaneous  capital
cost and  operating  costs  have already  been determined  in  Table

-------
                               -25-
13.   To  obtain  the annual  capital  charge,  the  interest  during
construction and  the capital charge  rate must  be  applied to  the
instantaneous capital cost.  The result of this  for each  financial
scenario is  shown in Table  14, along with  the previously  deter-
mined operating costs.

     The feedstock  rate  has  already been  determined  to be  18,000
TPD, which  amounts  to  5,940,000 tons  per year, based  on 365  day
per year operation.  At a  coal  price  of  $27.50 per ton,  the  total
annual feedstock  cost would  be  $181 million per year.  The  annual
by-product credit is based on a value of  $50  per  ton  for  sulfur,
$180 per ton for ammonia, and $113  per barrel of phenol.   Based on
the  rates  of  production  presented above  (see Table  12),  total
annual by-product  credit is  $13 million per  year.   Pipeline  gas
(SNG) and ethane  will be considered products and will  be  included
in the total energy output of the plant.

     The total annual cost is the sum of  the annual capital,  oper-
ating, and  feedstock costs, less  the by-product  credits.   This
amounts to $1402 million per year for the  high  capital  charge rate
case and  $732 million per year for  the low  capital  charge  rate
case.

     The energy value  of the product  is  estimated  to  be  approxi-
mately 122,275,000 million BTU  per  year,  based on a  50,000  FOEB/D
(5.9 million  BTU  per FOEB)  plus the  SNG and  ethane.   The  total
product cost is then $11.47  per million  BTU  for the high  capital
charge rate  case  and $5.99  per million  BTU for the  low  capital
charge rate case.

     B.    The SRC-II Process

     The SRC  process is  being  developed by  Pittsburg  and  Midway
Coal Mining  Company,  a  subsidiary  of  Gulf Oil  Corporation,  under
DOE  sponsorship.   The  SRC-II process converts  coal  to liquid  and
gaseous products  by dissolving finely-ground coal and mixing  it
with recycled process solvent.  Hydrogenating and hydrocracking of
the  dissolved  coal  takes place  at  an   elevated  temperature  and
pressure.   Catalytic activity in recycle  slurry  enhances  hydrogen-
ation and hydrocracking.   Inorganic matter in  the  feed coal  also
accelerates these reactions.[15,18]

     In the process, raw coal is ground  to  fine particles  and is
then mixed with hot-recycle  slurry  in a mix tank.  This mixture of
coal and recycle  slurry is pumped together with hydrogen  through a
fine preheater to a reactor maintained at about  460°C (860°  F)  and
2000  psig.   Upon  exiting  the  preheater,  the  pulverized  coal  is
almost completely dissolved  in  the  solvent portion of  the  recycle
slurry.  Highly  exothermic  hydrocracking  reactions  occur  in  the
reactor, allowing  the  temperature   at the  outlet of  the  preheater
to  be  considerably  lower  than the required reactor  temperature.
Hydrogen is injected into  the reactor for temperature  control  and

-------
                               -26-
                             Table  14

                Overall Product Cost  of  the H-Coal
            Process Based on Ashland  Estimates  ($1981)
Instantaneous Capital
Cost (^Billion)

Annual Capital Charge
(millions per year)

Operating Costs
(millions per year)

Feedstock Cost
(millions per year)

By-Product Credit
(millions per year)

Total Annual Cost
(millions per year)

Average Product Cost
(per mBtu)
Low Cost
  Case

    3.3
  430


  134


  181


  (13)


  732


    5.99
High Cost
   Case

     3.3
  11(0
   134
   181
  (13)
  1402
    11.47

-------
                               -27-
to maintain  adequate  gas distribution, as  well as to  promote  the
hydrocracking  reactions.   The  reactor effluent flows  through  a
series  of  vapor-liquid  separators, where  it is  ultimately  separ-
ated into process gas, light hydrocarbon liquids and slurry.

     The process  gas consists  primarily  of  hydrogen  and  gaseous
hydrocarbons, together with  minor  amounts  of hydrogen  sulfide  and
carbon  dioxide.   It is  cooled  to about  38° C  (100°  F) and  goes
through an  acid  gas removal  step  for removal  of  hy*. :ogen  sulfide
and  carbon  dioxide.  The  treated  gas  passes  througf   a  cryogenic
separation  step  for  removal of  the  hydrocarbons.   The  purified
hydrogen is  recycled to  the process,  while  the hydrocarbons  are
recovered as products.

     Any remaining  carbon  monoxide is converted to methane  and  is
then  sold  as  pipeline   gas   (SNG).   The   other light  hydrocarbon
gases  are   fractionated  to  produce  ethane,  propane,  and  butane
streams.  All  of  the light  hydrocarbon liquid  collected from  the
various  condensation steps,  plus  the overhead stream  from  the
vacuum  tower  (below)  are  sent  to  the  fractionator.   In  the
fractionator, the  total  liquid  product is  separated  into naphtha,
middle distillate, and heavy distillate.

     The product  slurry  is split,  with one portion  being recycled
to  the  process   for  slurrying  with  the  feed coal.   The  other
portion  of  the product  slurry  goes  to a  vacuum  tower  where  the
lighter portion  of  the  distillate  is  removed overhead  and  sent  to
the  fractionator.   A  heavy  distillate product  is removed as  a
sidestream.   Residue from  the  vacuum tower  is  converted  into
synthesis via gasification gas.  A portion of  this gas  is  used  to
produce hydrogen  for  the process.   The synthesis gas  in excess  of
that required for  hydrogen production is purified and  burned  as  a
plant fuel.

     There  are  six major  studies which  specifically  analyze  the
costs  of the SRC-II  liquefaction  process.  These  studies  include
two  by Pittsburg  and Midway Coal Mining Co.,  one  by Ralph  M.
Parsons Co., an ICF study,  an ESCOE study and  a  recent DOE  study.
Each study estimates a final  product  cost  (in terms  of dollars per
million  BTU) based  on   capital  costs, operating  and  maintenance
costs, feedstock costs,  and by-product credits.

     First,  the  two  Pittsburg  and  Midway  Coal  studies will  be
examined, followed  by the  Parsons  study,  the  ICF report, the ESCOE
report  and  the   DOE  report.   After these  studies  have  been
critiqued  and partially  adjusted for  comparison  purposes,  the
study  with  the  most accurate estimates will be selected.   As  was
done  with  the H-Coal  process,  cost   estimates  from  the selected
study  will  be  adjusted  according to all  of   the  input  factors
determined in section II.  A  final product  cost will  then be esti-
mated.

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                               -28-
     1.    Pittsburg and Midway Coal Mining Company[12,18]

     Two studies of  the  SRC-II process were recently completed  by
Pittsburg  and Midway  Coal  Mining.    The  first  study,  performed
under  contract with  DOE, was  a  1979  study  which gave a  detailed
analysis of the SRC-II Conceptual  Commercial Plant.[12]   Pittsburg
and Midway stated  that  the Conceptual Commercial Plant produces  a
product slate  including  SNG, butane LPG,  low  sulfur fuel oil,  an
ethane-propane light hydrocarbon  stream and a  naphtha stream,  as
well as  sulfur,  ammonia,  and  tar acid  by-products.  The ethane-
propane light hydrocarbon  stream and the naphtha  stream could  both
be  burned  directly  as  fuel  products.   However,  Pittsburg  and
Midway stated that they  are  both readily capable  of  being  upgraded
to higher valued products  by known technology.  A detailed econom-
ic  analysis  was  also  included  in  this  study  by  Pittsburg  and
Midway, with  capital costs  and  annual  operating and  maintenance
expenses.

     The second study,[18] completed  in 1980,  was  essentially  an
updated version of the  first  study,  and  although  it  was not  as
detailed, it still addressed the  areas of importance for  purposes
of  this  study.  The cost  estimates of  the second  study will  be
used here  except  where  they are  not  addressed.   In these  cases,
the costs from the more detailed  first study will be used.

     The economic  analysis for a  commercial-size plant  completed
by Pittsburg and Midway  mining was based on work  prepared for the
6,000  ton  per day  demonstration  plant  which  to  be located  near
Morgantown,  West  Virginia.   This  commercial-size plant  would
process West  Virginia  area  coal  (Powhatan  Coal,  12,813  BTUs per
pound) at  a  rate  of  33,500  tons  per stream  day  (330  days per
year).  Pittsburg  and  Midway  estimated  the thermal  efficiency  of
the process to be 72 percent,  producing the  product  slate  shown  in
Table  15.  On  an energy  basis, this amounts to a  total production
of 100,000 FOEB/D.

     The investment and  operating  costs for  the conceptual commer-
cial plant as  estimated  by Pittsburg and Midway mining were based
on a design developed  by assuming  that the  key process steps  will
be  successfully demonstrated in the mid-1980's  in  the 6,000 T/D
demonstration plant, and that  the  first commercial  plants will  be
built  and operating  in the early 1990's.  The  direct capital  cost
estimates were  those costs  which  would normally  be incurred for
engineering, procurement,  and  construction.  They included  direct
field  costs,  indirect  field  costs,  and  engineering  costs.  The
indirect capital  cost  estimates included  catalyst  and chemicals,
license, owner management costs,  land, and working capital.

     Indirect field costs  included field staff  costs, field  office
expenses, payroll  taxes, insurance,  performance  bonds, consumable
supplies, temporary facilities, construction equipment  rental, and
small  tools.  No precommissioning  or commissioning costs have  been
included.

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                     -29-
                    Table 15

Product Slate of the SRC-II Liquefaction Process
      (Barrels Per Day of Fuel Oil Equivalent)
Pittsburg
Product and Midway [13]
Naptha
Fuel Oil
Residual
LPG (Ethane/
Propane)
Butane
Methane
(MMSCFD)
Total
By-Product (TPD)
Sulfur
Ammonia
Phenols
Tar Acids (BPD)
Feed Rate (TPD)
17,000
56,000
—
22,000
3,000
50

100,000

1,200
180
—
240
33,500
Par sons [14]
5,148
11,253
33,680
—
—
—

50,000

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
17,232
ESCOE[3] ICF[2] DOE [22]
10,700 8,700 3,050
45,300 36,800 10,030
—
5,500 4,500 3,900
500
10

61,500 50,000 18,000

854 694 215
283 230 30
69 56
43
25,000 20,325 6,000

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                               -30-


     Engineering  costs  were  estimated as  a percentage  of  total
field  costs  (the  sum  of  direct  and  indirect  field costs).   The
total  estimate  included approximately 3,964,000 engineering  hours
for the engineering/construction contractor.

     The total  instantaneous  direct capital  investment,  including
a  20  percent contingency, was  $1794 million in 1st quarter  1980
dollars.  A  breakdown of  these costs  are  shown in Table 16.   The
total indirect investment is $190 million.

     The  total   instantaneous   capital   costs   were   then   $1.98
billion, based  on  a production  of  100,000 barrels of  fuel  oil
equivalent per day.

     The annual operating costs  (fixed  and variable)  were  esti-
mated with appropriate  contingencies included,  in  accordance  with
DOE  guidelines.  The  operating  labor and supplies  included  an
average operator  rate plus adjustment for idle time, fringe  bene-
fits,  and  contingency.   Operating  supplies  were calculated at  10
percent of operating labor.   Maintenance  labor  were also included
in operating costs,  based also on an average rate  for  maintenance
work, plus adjustments  for idle time, fringe benefits  and  contin-
gency.  Maintenance materials  were  assumed to  be 2  percent  of
total depreciable investment including catalysts and chemicals and
owner  management  costs  but  excluding   license  fees   and  land.
Contract maintenance was  also estimated in this cost  at the  same
number  of  workers  as   the  direct-fire   plant  maintenance   work
force.  Catalysts chemicals,  electricity  (at $0.035 per KWH),  and
property taxes  and  insurance  (at  1.5 percent of  fixed  capital
investment) were  also included  in the operating costs.  The  total
annual  operating  costs,  without  feedstock,  was estimated  to  be
$110 million per year (1980 dollars).

     In summary,  the total  instantaneous   capital  cost was  esti-
mated to be  $1.98 billion and  the  total  operating cost was  esti-
mated  to  be  $110  million,  without  feedstock, in  1980 dollars.
These cost estimates will be  compared later to  the  remaining  four
studies below (Parsons,  ICF,  ESCOE and DOE).

     2.    Parsons[19]

     A  study sponsored  by  EPRI  was prepared by  The  Ralph  M.
Parsons Company of  Pasadena, California.  In this  study, two  cases
were developed for  the  SRC-II process:  a case  to  represent normal
operations required  to  maximize the  production of  heavy fuel  oil
and a case at more  severe operating conditions  to  lower the sulfur
content of  the  products   and  increase the yield  of  liquid  fuel
products (i.e.,  in  the  syncrude mode).  For purposes of this  anal-
ysis, only the  case where the low sulfur content is produced  will
be considered.  This case produces  a crude more similar to petro-
leum than  the first case  which  can be later refined  to a usable
transportation fuel.

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                        -31-
                      Table 16
   Capital  Investments  for  SRC-II  (As Estimated by
    Pittsburg and Midway Coal Mining Company) [13]
                     33,500 T/SD
                 West  Virgina  Coal
                                 Millions of Dollars
                                 (First Quarter 1980)
Coal and Ash Handling                      86

Hydrogenation                             707

Hydrogen Production                       480

Refining and Gas Recovery                 161

Secondary Recovery                         94

Utilities and General Facilities          266

  Total Direct Investment                1794

Indirect Investment                       190

  Total                                 $1984

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                               -32-
     A factored cost  estimate  was prepared by Parsons in  the  EPRI
study.  For process units that were  under  pilot  plant  development,
major  equipment  was  sized  and  factored   to  an  installed  cost.
Process units  that were  commercially  demonstrated  were  factored
from previously developed cost estimates.   The estimates assumed  a
complete,   self-sustaining  plant  which  included  the  generation  of
all power  required for their operation.  The plant capacities  were
based on a normal output of 50,000 FOEB/D.

     The products  in this  study  were  based  on an  experimentally
achieved 69.9  percent overall  thermal  efficiency.   The  products
were 33,680 BPD of residual oil,  11,253  BPD of fuel  oil, and 5,148
BPD of naptha.   The coal feed rate was  17,232 tons per day.   These
are shown in Table 15.

     The total capital costs as  estimated  by Parsons are  shown  in
Table  17.   The total capital  costs were   defined  as the sum  of
total  plant  investment,  royalty allowance,  preproduction  costs,
working capital, construction  loan  interest,  capital  cost escala-
tion and land.   The  total  plant  investment was  the sum  of  total
constructed cost,  home office  engineering and  overhead,   contin-
gency and sales tax.  These costs are mid-1976  estimates.

     The home  office  engineering and  overheads  were estimated  at
nominally  15 percent  of  total constructed  costs based on Parsons
experience.  This charge covered  the cost  of management and  admin-
istrative,  process  and  project engineering, construction  support,
design,  drafting,    accounting,   estimating,   scheduling,   cost
engineering,  procurement, expediting, inspection, stenographic and
clerical   expense,    printing,    reproduction,   computer   charges,
communications  and travel.

     Contingency was  also included in the  capital costs, estimated
to be  15  percent  of  the sum of  total  constructed  costs  and  home
office engineering  and overhead.  Sales tax were estimated  at  5
percent of direct  material costs.   Royalty allowance  was  arbi-
trarily taken  at  0.5 percent  of  total  plant  investment.   Land
requirements  were  estimated at  two sections  (1280  acreas)  which
presumably could be purchased  for $2,500/acre.   The total instan-
taneous capital  cost was  estimated  to  be  $1.61  billion  (1976
dollars).

     The annual  operating   costs  were  also calculated by Parsons
based on a 90 percent onstream  factor,  and are shown in Table 18.
The  total  direct  operating costs  included washed  coal,   residue
disposal,   raw  water,  catalyst  and  chemicals, operating  labor
requirements,   and  maintenance  labor  and  materials.    The  total
annual  direct   costs  were  estimated  to   be   $57   million  (1976
dollars)  without  the  cost  of  feedstock.   The indirect  costs
include administrative and support labor,  general  and   admini-
strative expenses,  and  property tax  and  insurance.   The  total

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                       -33-
                      Table 17

            SRC-II  Capital  Cost Estimates
       (As Estimated by Parsons)[14]  Mid-1976
       	(^Million)	

Total Constructed Cost:                         867

  Home Office Engineering                       130

  Contingency                                   150

  Sales Tax                                      26

Total Plant Investment:                        1173

  Royalty Allowance                               6

  Preproduction Costs                            76

  Working Capital                                85

  Construction Loan Interest                    269

  Capital Cost Escalation                         0

  Land                                         	3_

Total Capital Requirement                     $1612

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                      -34-


                    Table 18

SRC-II Annual Operating Cost,  Excluding Feedstock
	(As Estimated by Parsons)[14]	

                                  (Millions of
Direct Costs                      1976 Dollars)

Residue Disposal                      0.869

Water                                 1.314

Catalyst and Chemicals               17.500

Operating Labor                      18.528

Maintenance Labor and Materials      18.499

  Total Direct Costs                 56.710


Indirect Costs

Administrative and Support Labor      5.558

General and Administrative Expense   11.116

Property Taxes, and Insurance         29.336

  Total Operating Cost              102.72

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                               -35-
indirect  expenses  are  $46 million.   The  total  annual  operating
costs  are then  $103  million  (1976  dollars),  without  feedstock
costs.

     3.    ESCOE[3]

     ESCOE's cost data was obtained directly from a  process  devel-
oper.  However,  ESCOE did not  mention who  the developer was  and
they merely  present  the data without explanation.   ESCOE's  costs
were based on a coal feed rate of 25,000  tons of coal  per day,  and
which resulted in a production of 61,500  FOEB/D.  The   product  mix
is shown in Table 15.

     Although ESCOE  did not  go  into great  depth  about  how  their
cost estimates were obtained, they  did nevertheless present  esti-
mates  for capital  and  operating  costs  (in 1978  dollars).   The
instantaneous capital  cost was  $1.26  billion.  Annual  operating
costs  (except   for   feedstock)   amounted  to  $6.0   million  for
catalysts and chemical,  $12.2 million for labor, $38.2 million  for
maintenance, and $63  million for local  tax and insurance.   Total
annual operating costs were  $119 million.   These  costs  are  shown
in Table 19.

     4.    ICF[2]

     The ICF report based  their cost estimates on the ESCOE  study
just  analyzed  above,   adjusted  to ICF's  own financial  parameters
and  a  production  volume  of  50,000  BPD.   ICF  used  an  average
scaling  factor  of 0.830 to  adjust  capital costs.   They did  not
perform  any additional  research  into  the actual  process.   The
product  slate  of  ICF  is  shown  in Table 15 and  the   capital  and
operating costs are shown in Table 20.

     5.    DOE[20]

     DOE  has  released a very recent cost  estimate  for  the  6,000
TPD  demonstration  plant  located  near Morgantown,  West  Virginia
which  was being planned cooperatively with  Pittsburg and  Midway
Mining.  These updated cost  estimates were provided to  the  Senate
Committee on Appropriations,  Subcommittee on Interior  and Related
Agencies following the March  25,  1981 testimony of Roger  W.  A.  Le
Gassie, DOE's Acting Assistant Secretary for Fossil  Energy.

     This release by DOE was very brief and did not  go into detail
about  the SRC-II  demonstration  plant  project.  However, much  of
the  technical  analyses  and   results  found  in the  Pittsburg  and
Midway studies  should also apply here  relative to the  plant size
and  product  slate.  Other parameters,  such as coal  type,  should
also be identical in both cases.

     The breakdown of  capital and operating costs  (in Ist-quarter
1981  dollars)  is  shown in Table  21.  Capital costs   total  $1.99

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                               -36-
                              Table 19

               Capital and Operating Costs for SRC-II
            (As Estimated  by ESCOE)  (Mid-1978  Dollars)[3]

                                                    Cost (Million
Capital Cost                                      Dollars Per Year)

Plant Capital Requirements  .

  Coal Preparation                                        63
  H2 or Gasification                                     253
  02 Plant                                               129
  Gas Shift
  Acid Gas and Sulfur Plants                              60
  Reactor Section                                        195
  Gas Plant                                               30
  Pollution Control                                       44

    Total                                                774

  Other                                                  488

    Total Capital Cost                                  1262

Fixed Operating Costs
  ($ Millions/Year)

Labor                                                   12.2

Maintenance                                             38.2

Local Tax and Insurance                                 53.0

  Total, First Year                                    113.4

Variable

Catalyst and Chemicals                                   6.0

  Total                                                  6.0

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                               -37-
                             Table 20

              Capital and Operating Costs for SRC-II
               (As Estimated by IGF, Mid-1980 Dollars)

Capital Costs                                                 Cost

Plant Selection

  Coal Preparation                                              63
  Reaction Section                                             195
  Light Ends Processing                                         30
  Hydrogen Plant                                               254
  Oxygen Plant                                                 129
  Emission Plus Effluent Control System                        104
  Storage                                                       36

  Total Plant Investment                                       775

  Utilities                                                    369
  Offsites                                                     109
  Prepaid Royalties                                            	7_

  Total                                                       1260

Fixed Operating Costs
   (^Million/Year)

  Operating Labor                                               9.7
  Overhead                                                     26.6
  Maintenance                                                  45.4

  Total, First Year                                            81.7

Variable

  Water                                                        1.32
  Catalyst and Chemicals                                       5.78
  Ash Disposal                                                 1.20

  Total (Excluding Feedstock)                                   8.3

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                      -38-
                    Table 21

         Cost Estimates for the 6000TPD
            SRCII Demonstration Plant
             (February, 1981 Dollars)
                                     Million Dollars
Phase I - Design (1980-84)                 292
Phase II - Construction (1982-86)          1415
Phase IIIA - Start-Up (1986)               286

  Preoperational Subtotal                 1993

Phase IIIB - 2 Yrs.  Operation              347
(1986-88)
Phase IIIC - 3 Yrs.  Operation              495
(1988-91)

  Total                                    842

  Annual Average                           160

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                               -39-
billion, which  includes  an estimated  13  percent contingency,  but
no working  capital.   These costs were  given for different  phases
of the  plant  development, thus being  presented  as lifetime  costs
rather  than instantaneous investments.   Mechanical operation  was
estimated to begin in early  1986.   The annual operating and  main-
tenance cost  was approximately $165  million per  year.   This  did
not include coal costs or capital  recovery.

     6.    Selection of Best  Study

     A summary  of the capital and operating costs  as  estimated by
each  study  are  shown in  Table  22.   Each of these  five  sets  of
estimates will  be adjusted to an output  of 50,000 FOEB/D and  the
financial input factors  discussed  in  section  II  above.   As  was
done previously  with  the H-Coal  process,  costs at  this point will
be left as  instantaneous capital costs and stream day operations
for convenience, unless  otherwise  specified.  Feedstock costs  and
by-product  credits will  also  be  accounted for later.  Once  selec-
tion  of the  best  study or  studies  have  been  determined,  final
adjustments will be   made,   if  necessary,  for  lifetime   capital
costs,  calendar day  operations,  feedstock  costs,  and by-product
credits.

     The Pittsburg and Midway studies will be examined first.  Its
adjusted product slate,  shown in  Table 23,  is simply  one-half  the
amount estimated for  a 100,000 FOEB/D product slate.  The  capital
cost  estimates  need  to  be   adjusted  to  a production  of  50,000
FOEB/D using the 0.75  scaling factor,  inflated to  1981 dollars  and
have  a  15  percent contingency  added.  These  changes reduce this
cost  to  $1.23  billion (1981  dollars).  Labor costs are similarly
adjusted using  a scaling factor of  0.2.   The catalyst, chemical,
and electricity costs, originally estimated  at  $11 million  (1980
dollars) for  the 100,000  FOEB/D  case, would  be  (with inflation)
$6.0  million  (1981 dollars)  for a  production  of 50,000  FOEB/D.
The remaining  operating and  maintenance  costs  are assumed  to  be
the same percentage of plant  investment in both  the 100,000 FOEB/D
case  and  the   50,000 FOEB/D case.   A summary  of  Pittsburg  and
Midway's adjusted capital and operating and maintenance costs  are
shown in Table 24.

     The  Parsons'   study  is  already  based  on  a  50,000  FOEB/D
production.  Thus,  its  product slate  and  process  costs  will  not
have  to be modified  at this point,  except for   inflation.   The
inflated costs are shown in Table 24.

     The  capital costs  and   operating  costs  of  the  ESCOE  study
required  adjustment   from ESCOE's  original  production  of  61,500
FOEB/D  to 50,000 FOEB/D, based on appropriate scaling factors  and
inflation to  1981  dollars.   ESCOE's adjusted costs  are  shown in
Table 24.

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                               -40-
                                   Table 22

                Summary of SRC-II Capital and Operating Costs,
                           As Estimated by Each Study
Coal Type
Coal
Thermal
Efficiency (%)
Pittsburg
and Midway [13]
W.V. Coal

72
Parsons [14]
111. #6*

69.9
ESCOE[3] ICF[2] DOE [22]
111. #6* 111. #6 W.V.

N/A N/A 72
Total Production
(FOEB/D)
Capital Cost
($Million/Yr)
Plant
Other
Operating Costs
Fixed
Variable
100,000

1,794
190
99
11
50,000

1,173
439
102.7
18.5
61,500 50,000 18,000

774 775 1,707**
488 485 286
113.4 81.7 130
6.0 8.3 30
*   This was assumed for each study where coal types were not  stated.

**  These are lifetime capital costs.

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                    -41-
                  Table 23

       Adjusted SRC-II Product Slates
Based on 50,000 FOEB/D Commercial Plant Size
Coal Feed Rate
Efficiency (%)
Product
Naptha
Fuel Oil
Residual
LPG (Ethane/
Propane)
Butane (TPD)
Methane
(MMSCFD)
Total
By-Product
Sulfur (TPD)
Ammonia (TPD)
Phenols (TPD)
Tar Acids (BPD)
Pittsburg
and Midway
16,750
72%
8,500
28,000
—
11,000
1,500
25

50,000

600
90
—
120
Parsons
17,232
69.9%
5,148
11,253
33,680
—
—
—

50,000

N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
ESCOE ICF DOE
20,325 20,325 16,750
70% 70% 72%
8,700 8,700 8,500
36,830 36,800 28,000
4,470 4,500
11,000
1,500
25

50,000 50,000 50,000

694 694 600
230 230 90
56 56
120

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                               -42-
                              Table 24

                  Adjusted SRC-II Cost Estimates,
           Based on 50,000 BPD/FOE  Commercial  Plant  Size
Pittsburg
and Midway Parsons
Instantaneous
Capital Costs
(Millions of
1981 Dollars)
Plant Investment 969 1,379
Other 103 592
Contingency 161 296
(@ 15%)
Total 1,233 2,267
Operating Costs
(Millions of
1981 Dollars per
Stream Day)
Fixed
Operating Labor 27.0 13.9
and Main-
tenance Labor
Other 46.5 73.0
Variables
Water, 6.0 26.5
Catalyst, etc.
Working Capital * 6.8
Total 79.5** 120.2
ESCOE IGF DOE

787 845 2,870
496 529 100
192 206 430
1,475 1,580 3,400

31.3 30.4 62

87.4 58.7 218
5.8 9.0 47

7.5 5.9 19
132.0 104.0 346
*    Included in other costs.

**   Calendar day operation.

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                               -43-
     Concerning  the  IGF  study,  product  slates  and  costs   are
already  determined  for  a  production  of  50,000  FOEB/D.   ICF's
costs,  however,  still must  be  inflated  to  1981 dollars.   These
costs are shown in Table 24.

     Finally, DOE's estimates for lifetime capital costs  and oper-
ating  costs  will  be  adjusted  using   the   appropriate  scaling
factors.  Only a feedrate of 6000 TPD is  given by DOE,  without  the
corresponding  production  volumes.    However,  both  feedrate   and
production  volume   should  be  proportional  to the  Pittsburg   and
Midways  estimates.   Since Pittsburg  and Midway  estimated  a feed
rate of 33,500 TPD  for a  100,000 FOEB/D plant, 16,750  TPD  of coal
should  correspond  to a production of 50,000  FOEB/D.   Thus, based
on  a feedrate of  17,000 TPD  and a  scaling   factor  of  0.75,  the
lifetime capital costs would be  $4.35 billion,  which includes a 13
percent contingency but does  not include working capital.  With  a
15 percent contingency and working  capital,  which is  estimated to
be  about 4  percent  of  all  other  capital   costs  (based  on  the
previous  studies),   the  total   lifetime  cost  would   be  $4.60
billion.

     The instantaneous capital  cost of the DOE study will now be
estimated so that  it  can  be compared to  the  instantaneous  capital
costs  of  the  other  studies.    The  instantaneous  capital  cost
depends  on  the  construction  interest  rate and   the  building
schedule  incorporated  into  DOE's   lifetime   capital  cost.    The
investment  schedule is  shown in  Table  25,   and the  opportunity
cost,  based  on  DOE's work,  is estimated  to  be 10  percent  per
year.   The resulting  adjustment  factor  is 1.348.  If  the lifetime
capital cost of  $4.60 billion is divided by  the  adjustment factor
of 1.348, the resulting instantaneous capital  cost is $3.4 billion.

     As mentioned earlier, DOE  estimated  total operating costs to
be  $165 million  per year.   Adjusting  this  cost  to the  desired
plant size of 50,000  FOEB/D is  difficult  since DOE did not give  a
complete breakdown  of the labor,  catalyst,   chemical,  electricity
and  other  costs.   However,  based  on  the   Pittsburg  and  Midway
studies, the labor  costs for  the 6000 TPD plant  are  30 percent of
total annual operating costs,  or $50 million.  When  adjusted to  a
plant  size  of  50,000  FOEB/D  production,  the labor cost is about
$62 million, based  on a  0.2 scaling factor.   Pittsburg and Midway
estimated catalyst, chemical, and electricity costs  to  be about 10
percent  of   the  annual  operating  costs,  which  would  be  $16.5
million  for the 6000  TPD  plant.    Since  these vary  in direct
proportion to plant size,  these costs would  total  $47  million  for
the  50,000 FOEB/D  plant.   The remaining  operating  and maintenance
costs (excluding working capital interest) are 60 percent of  total
operating and maintenance costs, or $100  million.   These  costs  are
based on a fixed percentage of  capital  and,   based on  a 0.75  scal-
ing  factor,  would  amount  to $218  million for the  larger plant.
This would bring the  total operating  and  maintenance cost,  without
working capital  interest, to  $315  million per  year.   With  working

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                Table 25

Investment Adjustment Factor Calculations
           For DOE-SRC-II Study
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Fraction of
Investment
Completed
0.029
0.029
0.171
0.171
0.171
0.142
0.286
1.00
Adjustment for During
Desig,: ., Construction,
a id Start-up
(1.10)7
(1.10)6
(1.10)5
(1.10)4
(1.10)3
(1.10)2
(1.10)1
Adjustment
Factors
0.057
0.051
0.275
0.250
0.228
0.172
0.315
1.348

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                               -45-
capital  interest  at 6  percent of  this  cost,  the  total  operating
and maintenance  costs amount  to  $346 million  per year.  As  with
the other studies,  feedstock costs  and by-product  credits  will not
be estimated until later.

     The ESCOE and  ICF  studies will be evaluated  first,  primarily
because  ICF  depends upon  ESCOE's study and  thus  the  outcomes  of
these  two  studies  should  be  similar.   ESCOE  expresses their  own
judged  accuracy  in  their cost  estimate  in  what  is  known  as  a
"confidence  factor."   The  "confidence  factor" for  this  process
development is described as "pre-commercial successful  pilot  plant
operation."   However,   the  economic  reliability  is  described  as
"screening estimate,  very approximate."   ESCOE also gives  little
detailed  support  for  its estimates.   In  addition  to these  low
confidence  factors   expressed  by  ESCOE  themselves,  ESCOE's  cost
estimates  are outdated  relative   to  Ashland  and   DOE  and  simple
inflation  to  1981  dollars  could   still  underestimate  the  process
costs  as they actually occur  today.   As  has  been  discussed  for
H-Coal  in the  previous  section,  changes  in  the SRC-II  process
itself have increased costs at a  much higher rate than inflation.
For all  these reasons,  ESCOE's  study will  be  rejected from further
consideration in favor  of  the  more recent Ashland  and  DOE studies
evaluation in determining the  study with the most  accurate process
cost estimates.  As  the ICF  cost  estimates were also derived  from
the ESCOE study,  their study will  also not  be  analyzed further.

     The remaining  studies to  be analyzed are  the  Pittsburg  and
Midway  studies,  the DOE  study and  the Parsons  study.  Of  these
studies,  the  Pittsburg  and  Midway  and DOE  studies  should  best
represent the  process costs of the SRC-II process,  based on the
following reasons.   First, Pittsburg and  Midway is under  contract
with  DOE to  determine  the  costs  of  the  6000 TPD plant  to  be
located  near  Morgantown,  West  Virginia  and  has  done  all  the
process  development work  on  SRC-II.   Second,  both  Pittsburg  and
Midway  and  DOE  have used  more  recent  data  to estimate  process
costs.   Parson's  was  only able  to use  data  available  prior  to
1978.   Third, the Pittsburg and Midway and DOE  studies  show  a  more
desirable  product  output.  Naptha,  which  is  the  most  desirable
product from coal liquefaction, is about 17 percent of  the product
output according to  the Pittsburg and Midway studies, while  in the
Parson's study, the  naptha production is about  10  percent  of  total
output.  Thus, based on the above three reasons, the  Pittsburg and
Midway  and  DOE  studies will  be   adjusted  separately  to  all  the
conditions determined  in section  II  above as  these studies  most
accurately represent and  estimate the  cost  of  a   future  SRC-II
commercial plant.

     The  final  adjustments to  the DOE  and Pittsburg  and  Midway
studies  include  adjustments   for  feedstock   costs,  by-products
credits,  and  annual capital  charges.   For Pittsburg  and  Midway,
the feedstock rate  for  a  50,000 FOEB/D plant  would be  16,750  tons
per day, or for a 365  days per year operation,  the  feedstock  rate

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                               -46-
would  be 6,113,750  tons per  year.   At  the  1981  estimated  coal
price  of  $27.50  per ton, the  total feedstock  cost  would be  $168
million.  The  annual  by-product  credits of  Pittsburg and  Midway
(already in 1981 dollars) for  sulfur and  ammonia  are  $11.0 million
per year  and  $5.9 million  per year,  respectively.   It is assumed
that tar acids will not be sold as a marketable by-product.

     Pittsburg and Midway estimated the  instantaneous  capital  cost
to  be  $1.23  billion.   Using   the  capital  charge  rates  of  11.5
percent and 30  percent for  the low and high  cases,  respectively,
along  with the  appropriate   construction  schedules,  the  annual
capital recovery costs are  $161 million per year for  the  low  cost
case and  $414  million per  year for the  high capital charge  rate
case.

     The total annual  cost  for Pittsburg and Midway is the  sum  of
the annual  capital recovery,  operating,  and feedstock costs, and
less that of the by-product  credits.  This  amounts to  $645 million
for the high capital charge rate case and $392  million for the low
capital charge rate  case.   The energy value of the products shown
in  Table 23  is  112,570,380  million  BTU   per year.   The   total
product  cost  is  then  $3.50 per million  BTU for  the low capital
charge  rate case  and  $5.30  per million BTU  for  the  high capital
charge rate case.

     Next,  the DOE study will be further  analyzed.   DOE's  feed-
stock cost should be the same  as that determined  for  the  Pittsburg
and Midway  study,  since as was previously mentioned, both  feed-
stock  rates and  coal types  are identical.  This  cost  is  estimated
to be  $168  million.   DOE's  annual by-product credits  are  also the
same as determined by  Pittsburg and Midway, which amounts  to about
$17 million.

     DOE's  instantaneous capital  cost  was estimated to  be  $3.4
billion.  Using the adjustment factors mentioned  above, the  annual
capital recovery costs would be $440 million  for  the  low  and $1.14
billion for the high capital charge rate  case.  DOE's  total  annual
cost  is the sum  of  annual  capital  recovery,  operating and  main-
tenance,  and  less  that  of  by product  credits.   This amounts  to
$760 million for the low cost  case and $1.46 billion  for  the  high
capital charge rate case.

     The  product  energy value in  DOE's  study  is estimated  to  be
107,673,000 million  BTU per year,  the same  as that  estimated  by
Pittsburg and  Midway.   The  total  product  cost  is  then $7.05 per
million  BTU for  the low and $13.56 per million  BTU  for  the  high
capital charge rate case.

     A  large   discrepancy   in   product  costs  exists  between the
Pittsburg and Midway studies  and  the  DOE  study.   The DOE product
estimates  are  over  twice   as   large as  the  Pittsburg and  Midway
estimates.  The primary difference is due to the  cost  of  capital.

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                               -47-
After a  more thorough  investigation,  it was  found that the  1980
cost estimates  of  the Pittsburg and  Midway study[18] were  merely
adjusted  for inflation  from their  original 1979  estimates.[12]
However,  as  was  discussed  in  the  H-Coal  studies  earlier,  coal
liquefaction  process  costs  have  tended  to  rise  significantly
faster than  the rate  of inflation due to changes in  the processes
with time.   The Pittsburg and Midway  study  probably underestimated
the  latest  costs  figures  as  they  were  merely   inflated  from
previous work.  On  the  other hand, the DOE  study may overestimate
costs  because  it  was  based  on  a   smaller  demonstration  plant,
though the scaling  factor (0.75)  should  help reduce  this  effect.
Thus, although  there  is some chance  of  overestimation in  the  DOE
study, it is still  likely to be  the more realistic.  Also,  DOE's
capital cost is much  nearer  that estimated  for the  H-Coal process,
while Pittsburg and Midway's capital  costs  are one-third of  that
for  the  H-Coal  process  and  well  below that estimated by Parsons'
earlier.  Thus, the DOE  study, with  adjustments, appears to be the
best product cost estimate for the SRC-II process.

IV.  Summary

     The  publicly available  studies  addressing  the costs of  both
the  H-Coal  and SRC-II  process were  analyzed  to  determine  which
contained the most  accurate  assessment of costs.  Two very  recent
reports  by   Ashland  were  found  to  contain the  most  up-to-date
assessment of the H-Coal process[10,11] and  a  DOE report was found
to   contain   the  most   recent  cost  estimates  for  the   SRC-II
process.[20]

     The costs contained in  each of  these studies were placed on a
common financial and  economic basis,  as  discussed  in section  II.
The  results  were  that  the instantaneous  capital cost of a  50,000
FOEB/D  H-Coal plant  is approximately $3.3  billion   (1st  quarter
1981).   The  average  product  cost  would  be  $5.99  per million  Btu
with  an 11.5 percent annual capital charge  rate  and  $11.47  per
million Btu with a 30 percent annual capital charge  rate.

     The  instantaneous  capital cost of an SRC-II plant of the same
size is $3.4 billion.   The average product  cost would be $7.05 per
million  Btu  with an  11.5  percent annual capital  charge rate  and
$13.56  per  million Btu with a  30  percent  annual  capital  charge
rate.

     Cost estimates both for the H-Coal  and SRC-II  plants are much
greater  than estimates  of  previous  years.   This  is due  to  the
costs associated with synthetic  fuel processes  rising much faster
than the general rate of inflation.

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                               -48-
                            References

     1.    "Refining  and  Upgrading of  Synfuels  From Coal  and Oil
Shales  by Advanced  Catalytic  Processes,"  Sullivan and  Frankin,
Third  Interim  Report, Processing  of  SRC-II Syncrude,  March 1980,
Chevron Research Co., FE-2315-47.

     2.    "Methanol  From Coal:   Prospects and  Performance  as  a
Fuel  and  as a Feedstock,"  ICF,  Inc.,  for U.S.  National  Alcohol
Fuels Commission, Washington D.C., 1980.

     3.    "Coal  Conversion  Comparisons,"  Roger,  K.A.,  et  al.,
Engineering Societies Commission on Energy,  Inc.,  Washington D.C.,
July 1979, FE-2468-51.

     4.    "Economic  Feasibility  Study,  Fuel  Grade Methanol  from
Coal  for  Office of  Commercialization of  the  Energy Research and
Development Administration," McGeorge, Arthur, DuPont  Company, for
U.S. ERDA TID-27606.

     5.    "Methanol  Use   Options  Study,"  (Draft)  DHR,  Inc.  for
DOE, December,  1980; Contract No. DE-ACOI-79 PE-70027.

     6.    "Methanol From  Coal, An Adaptation From the  Past,"  E.E.
Bailey, (Davy  McKee),  Presented at The  Sixth Annual International
Conference; Coal Gasfication, Liquefaction  and Conversion  to Elec-
tricity, University of Pittsburgh, 1979.

     7.    Plant  Design  and  Economics  for  Chemical  Engineers,
Peters, Max  S.  and  Timmerhaus^   Klaus  D. ,  McGraw-Hill  Company,
Second Edition, 1968.

     8.    "The  Potential  for  Methanol  from  Coal:    Kentucky's
Perspective on Costs and Markets," Kermode,  R.I.,  Nicholson, A.F.,
Holmes, D.F.,  Jr.,  and Jones,  M.E.,   Jr.,  Division of  Technology
Assessment,  Kentucky  Center   for  Energy  Research,   Lexington,
Kentucky,  March, 1979.

     9.    "Engineering Evaluation of  a  Conceptual Coal Conversion
Plant  using  the H-Coal  Liquefaction  Process,"  Prepared by Fluor
Engineers  and Constructors, Inc. for EPRI, December, 1979.

     10.   "The  Breckinridge Project,"  Ashland  Synthetic  Fuels,
Inc. and  Airco Energy Company,  Inc., Submitted  to United  States
Synthetic  Fuels Corporation, March, 1981.

     11.   "The Breckinridge  Project:   A  Commercial H-Coal Plant
Status Report," Hicks, Harold N., Presented  at the American Petro-
leum Institute  Mid-Year Meeting, Chicago, Illinois, May 13,  1981.

     12.   "SRC-II Demonstration Project, Phase Zero,"  Prepared  by
Pittsburg   and  Midway Coal Mining Co.  for  U.S.  Dept.  of  Energy,
July  31,  1979.

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                               -49-
     13.   "Monthly   Energy  Review,"   U.S.   DOE,   DOE/EIA-0035
(81/04), April 1981.

     14.   "Research Guidance Studies to Assess Gasoline  from Coal
by  Methanol-to-Gasoline   and  Sasol-Type   Fischer-Tropsch   Tech-
nologies  (Final  Report),"  Mobil Research  and Development  Corp.,
for DOE, FE 2447-13, August 1978.

     15.   Coal Liquefaction Processes, Nowacki, Noyes  Data  Corp.,
1979.

     16.   Preliminary Economic Analysis of  H-Coal  Process  Produc-
ing 50,000  Barrels  Per Day  of_  Liquid Fuels  from  Two  Coal  Seams;
Wyodak  and  Illinois,  Prepared  for  the  U.S.  Energy Research  and
Development Administration ERDA 76-56, Morgantown W.V.  Process  and
Evaluation  Group,  U.S.  Bureau  of  Mines,   U.S.   Department   of
Interior, March 1976.

     17.   "The Breckinridge  Project Overall  Thermal  Efficiency,"
Issued for Phase 0 by Ashland Oil, June 15,  1981.

     18.   "The  SRC-II Process,"   Schmid,  B.K. and D.H.  Jackson,
(Pittsburg and Midway  Coal Mining)  Presented  at discussion meeting
on  New  Coal  Chemistry,  Organized  by the  Royal  Society, London,
England, May 21-22, 1980.

     19.   "Process  Engineering  Evaluations   of  Alternative"  Coal
Liquefaction  Concepts,"  Prepared  by  The  Ralph M.   Parsons  Company
for EPRI, April, 1978, AF-741.

     20.   Memorandum  and  Press Release  to  James   McClure,  Chair-
man,  Subcommittee on  Interior  and  Related  Agencies,  from  Roger
W.A. LeGassis, Acting  Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy,  April
30, 1981.

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