EPA-AA-SDSB-88-05
Technical Report
Analysis of Motor Vehicle Fuel Tank-Related Fires
By
Kathleen Steilen
February 1988
NOTICE
Technical Reports do not necessarily represent final EPA
decisions or positions. They are intended to present
technical analysis of issues using data which are
currently available. The purpose in the release of such
reports is to facilitate the exchange of technical
information and to inform the public of technical
developments which may form the basis for a final EPA
decision, position or regulatory action.
Standards Development and Support Branch
Emission Control Technology Division
Office of Mobile Sources
Office of Air and Radiation
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
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Table of Contents
Section Page
I. Introduction 3
II. Summary of Available Data 4
A. Motor Vehicle Fire Data Bases 5
B. Previous Motor Vehicle Fire Analyses 7 .
III. Analysis of Data 12
IV. Development of 1990 Vehicle Fire Data 14
V. Summary and Conclusions 17
Appendix A-l
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I. Introduction
Recently several parties have expressed concern regarding
the safety of onboard refueling emission controls. These
parties have commented that adding canister-based onboard
controls to current motor vehicles would add some complexity to
the fuel system which could increase the risk of crash and
non-crash fires. In a separate analysis, EPA conducted an
evaluation of the safety implications of canister-based onboard
systems to address the concerns raised. This evaluation
concluded that straightforward, reliable, relatively
inexpensive engineering solutions exist for each of the
potential problems identified and that no increase in risk need
occur or be accepted because of the presence of an onboard
system.[1]
Since onboard refueling controls will modify the fuel/
evaporative systems of motor vehicles and thus could have some
impact on the risk of fire, it is important to have a baseline
assessment of the risk for current vehicles. The purpose of
this technical report is to provide an assessment of the
current risk of fuel tank-related fires for motor vehicles
which meet current safety standards, and therefore provide a
baseline from which to assess any potential change in risk
(increase or decrease) which may occur due to onboard vapor
recovery systems.
A preliminary assessment of fuel tank-related fires was
drafted and released for comment and review to agencies with
expertise in this area.[2] (This preliminary assessment was
also placed in EPA Docket A-87-11 for public review.) Agencies
which were asked to review this analysis include the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the Office of
Motor Carrier Safety (OMCS) of the Federal Highway
Administration, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA),
and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS). Based
on comments and further data received from these parties, the
preliminary analysis has been refined and is summarized in this
technical report.[3,4,5]
Before presenting this analysis, it is important to note
that the potential hazard of fuel tank-related fires has been a
concern in the past. To address such concerns, Federal Motor
Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) 301 was promulgated by the
Department of Transportation in 1967 (effective January 1,
1968) to decrease the potential of crash fires.[6] This
standard improved the fuel system crashworthiness of passenger
cars by limiting the amount of allowable fuel leakage in the
event of an accident. Since that time, there have been two
additional FMVSS 301 rulemakings to upgrade the standard and
further improve the fuel system integrity of motor
vehicles.[7,8] ' In 1975, this Standard was substantially
enhanced by extending the coverage of impact types and
applicable vehicles. According to this upgraded standard,
FMVSS 301-75, which was effective for 1976 model year passenger
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cars and 1977 and 1978 model year light-duty trucks, all
vehicles with a Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (GVWR) of 10,000
pounds or less must restrict fuel leakage to less than five
ounces per five minutes when subjected to a rollover test
following front and rear collisions at 30 miles per hour (mph),
and side collision(s) at 20 mph.[7] Furthermore, beginning in
April 19-77, school buses with a GVWR greater than 10,000 pounds
must meet the same requirements when subjected to an impact
with a contoured moving barrier at any speed up to and
including 30 mph, at any point and angle.[8] Therefore, past
concerns regarding crash fires have lead to three FMVSS 301
rulemakings with increasing stringency.
As a result of these variations of FMVSS 301, the motor
vehicle fire data base is more complex. The fire data which
exists today includes a mixture of vehicles of varying model
years which comply with different versions of FMVSS 301 and in
some cases meet no standard. These data must be analyzed
closely to assess the fire risk associated with current motor
vehicles, to which FMVSS 301-75 is applicable.
As mentioned above, the purpose of this report is to
analyze the motor vehicle fire data and to estimate the current
risk of fuel tank-related fires. The report begins with a
summary of currently available data on the annual number of
total motor vehicle fires, post-collision fires, and' fuel
tank-related fires and the subsequent associated fatalities,
injuries and property damage with these fires. This is
followed by a discussion of how these data were analyzed and
adjusted to project the number of fuel tank fires, fatalities,
injuries, and property damage in 1990 and beyond when refueling
controls could be required.[9] The report closes with a brief
summary of the analysis and draws some conclusions.
II. Summary of Available Data
The available data on fuel tank-related fires and their
subsequent effects are limited; no single body of data exist
which accurately assesses the overall hazards. Virtually all
of the available data arise initially from police and fire
marshall reports from different states. While police reports
from such states as Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina,
Maryland, and Pennsylvania are quite useful, these records
alone are not adequate to characterize the problem. Data from
these records can be extrapolated to obtain an estimate of
national values.
Further, the nature and extent of the fire crash data
varies in different state reports. For example, some state
accident reports are very explicit in evaluating fires from
fuel leakage, the type of accident (front end, rear end,
rollover) and the accident severity. Others are less complete
perhaps only reporting information on fires and fatalities
without much supporting detail on the cause or location of the
vehicle fire.
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The available fire information from police and fire
reports has been used by several different motor vehicle safety
experts to develop data bases and other analyses which can
estimate the number of 'fuel tank-related fires and their
subsequent effects. This analysis of fuel tank fires uses
information .from two data bases, the Fatal Accident Reporting
System (FARS) and the National Fire Incident Reporting System
(NFIRS), and four past analyses on motor vehicle fires. Each
of these data bases and analyses will be described below,
together with the important information drawn from the source.
A. Motor Vehicle Fire Data Bases
Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS)[10]
The Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) is a motor
vehicle accident data base operated and maintained by NHTSA
which gathers data on all nationwide police-reported accidents
(for all types of vehicles, including passenger cars,
light-duty trucks, buses, and heavy-duty vehicles) in which a
fatality occurs. FARS specifies the occurrence of fire in such
motor vehicle accidents, but does not define the severity of
the fire, the cause of the fire, which vehicle the fire was
initiated in. (when two or more vehicles are involved), or
whether a fatality was caused directly by fire. Since the FARS
data represent only accidents with fatalities, the reported
motor vehicle accidents contained in this data base are
generally more severe. Therefore, use of these data alone
could misrepresent or overestimate the overall fire hazard for
current vehicles.
Nevertheless, FARS does offer some useful information with
respect to the number of fatalities from all motor vehicle
accidents .and those in which a post-collision fire occurred.
The data cover vehicles of all model years (i.e., both pre- and
post-standard vehicles). The key data extracted from this
source were averaged over the time period of 1980 through 1984
and are summarized below:
1,605 annual post-collision motor vehicle fires in
which a fatality was reported.
46,237 annual fatalities resulted from all motor
vehicle accidents.
1,655 (3.6 percent) of these total fatalities
resulted in accidents where a post-collision fire
occurred.
National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS)[11]
The National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) is a
fire data base operated and maintained by FEMA which gathers
data on all types of reported fires, including motor vehicle
fires. (This motor vehicle data are based on all types of
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vehicles, including passenger cars, light-duty trucks, buses,
and heavy-duty trucks.) The system receives a sampling of
state fire reports and extrapolates national statistics from
these. (For example, NFIRS received about 40 percent of the
total nationwide fires for 1985.) NFIRS supplies data on the
number of fires and the fatalities, injuries and property
damage in these fires. Furthermore, this data base can
characterize the fire information by type of vehicle, the
vehicle area where the fire originated (i.e., fuel tank area),
and whether the fire was a result of a collision or had some
other non-collision cause.
For the purpose of this analysis, NFIRS data were
extrapolated to represent nationwide estimates and were then
averaged over the period of 1980 through 1985. (Detailed
information obtained from NFIRS is presented in the appendix to
this report.) Since NFIRS statistics are compiled on an annual
basis, the data cover both pre- and post-standard vehicles.
The important motor vehicle fire estimates (expressed as annual
average values for both collision and non-collision fires) from
the NFIRS data include:
488,000 total motor vehicle fires (of all vehicle
types).
10,800 motor vehicle fires (2.2 percent) which
originated in the fuel tank area.
237 fatalities in motor vehicle fires which
originated in the fuel tank area.
631 injuries in motor vehicle fires which originated
in the fuel tank area.
$32 million in property damage from motor vehicle
fires which originated in the fuel tank area.
The NFIRS annual average nationwide fire estimates using data
from 1981 to 1985 for post-collision fires exclusively include:
1,871 motor vehicle fires which originated in the
fuel tank area.
185 fatalities in motor vehicle fires which
originated in the fuel tank area.
336 injuries in motor vehicle fires which originated
in the fuel tank area.
$14 million in property damage from motor vehicle
fires which originated in the fuel tank area.
Another accident data base, the MCS 250 Accident Reports,
which is operated and maintained by the Federal Highway
Administration/OMCS, also reports the occurrence of motor
vehicle fires in accidents. As is prescribed in the Code of
Federal Regulations (49 CFR 394.3), all heavy-duty vehicle
accidents in which death, bodily injury, or property damage of
$4400 or greater have occurred must be reported to this data
base. Since the data from this source only covers one class of
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vehicles and its nationwide representativeness of all accidents
can not be determined, the MCS 250 Accident Reports were not
used for this analysis. Other sources of helpful information
for this assessment include previous analyses by vehicle safety
experts. These analyses will be presented and discussed below.
B. Previous Motor Vehicle Fire Analyses
"Evaluation of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard
301-75, Fuel System Integrity: Passenger Cars," Glenn Parsons,
NHTSA (1983)[12]
This analysis was published by NHTSA in 1983 to evaluate
the effectiveness of the improved FMVSS 301-75. The report
characterizes the in-use accident and fire experience of both
pre- and post-standard vehicles. The data contained in this
report are obtained primarily from Michigan police accident
reports for the calendar years 1978, 1979, and 1980 for
accidents involving passenger vehicles only. From data
presented in this report, Tables 1 and 2 show the distribution
of impact type and vehicle damage severity in accidents
involving both pre- and post-standard passenger cars. Table 1,
which presents the frequency of accidents from the various
impact types, shows that rollover accidents are rare
occurrences (about 1.4 percent frequency) and most accidents
are frontal impacts (about 60.9 percent frequency). Table 2
presents the damage severity sustained by each vehicle involved
in an accident based on a Vehicle Damage Severity (VDS) scale.
A VDS of 1 represents very minor vehicle damage, whereas a VDS
of 8 represents extreme damage. As expected, this table shows
that accidents with Lo-Moderate severity damage (VDS = 2, 3, 4,
5) are more frequent in comparison to major severity accidents
(VDS =6,7,8).
Furthermore, this report supplies data which characterizes
the occurrence of fires in accidents involving pre- and
post-standard vehicles. Table 3 presents the fire rates
(number of fires per number of vehicle crashes) for both types
of vehicles by impact type and damage severity. The data show
that rollover and rear end collisions, especially those with
major damage severity, have the highest fire rates. This table
also shows that FMVSS 301-75 gave a greater reduction in the
fire rates for major severity accidents (50.6 percent) than for
Lo-Moderate severity accidents (22.4 percent) of these impact
types.
Other data provided by this NHTSA technical report include
the number and degree of injuries which result from vehicle
accidents and post-collision fires. It categorizes the
injuries into four types: fatal injuries, incapacitating
injuries, non-incapacitating injuries, and possible injuries.
In addition to the key data with regard to fire rates shown in
Table 3, some further information presented in this report
include:
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Table 1
Distribution of Accidents by Impact Type*
Impact
Type .
Frontal
Rollover
Rear end
Other (Side,
Pre-Standard
Freo^iency (%)
62.9
1.5
22.9
etc.) 12.8
Post-Standard
Frequency (%)
59.7
1.4
24.5
14.4
Overall
. Freojiency (%)
60.9
1.4
23.9
13.8
Based on Michigan data for calendar year 1980.
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Table 2
Distribution of Accidents by Vehicle Damage Severity*
Vehicle
Damage Pre-Standard Post-Standard Overall
Severity Frequency (%) Frequency (%)' Frequency (%)
1 3.858 2.892 3.26
2 25.595 26.108 25.92
3 26.134 27.162 26.78
4 20.220 20.532 20.42
5 12.447 12.398 12.42
6 6.552 6.350 6.43
7 3. 112 2.821 2.93
8 2.076 1.707 1.85
Based on Michigan data for calendar year 1980.
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Table 3
Fire Rates for Pre- and Post-Standard
Vehicles by Impact Type and Damage Severity*
tt of fires/tt of vehicle crashes = fire rate(xlO~3)
Pre-Standard
Front end
Rear end
Rollover
TOTAL
Post-standard
Front end
Rear end
Rollover
TOTAL
Lo-Moderate Severity
(YDS = 2,3,4,5)
360/229,433 = 1.569
139/99,663 = 1.395
14/2946 = 4.752
513/332,042 = 1.545
311/261,002 = 1.192
139/119,141 = 1.167
10/3541 = 2.824
460/383,684 = 1.199
Majority Severity
(YDS = 6,7,8)
91/9465 = 9.614
90/6304 = 14.28
49/3389 = 14.46
230/19,158 = 12.01
79/14,425 = 5.477
40/6944 = 5.76
29/3599 =8.05
148/24,968 = 5.93
Reduction from Standard
22.4%
50.6%
Based on Michigan data for calendar years 1978, 1979, and
1980. Information for other types of impacts were not
reported.
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20,600 annual motor vehicle fires resulting from
passenger car accidents.
1,099 annual fatalities in passenger car accidents
with fire (average from FARS for 1978-1981).
Total injuries in all passenger car accidents:
385,892 incapacitating injuries
865,642 non-incapacitating injuries
1,095,180 possible injuries
Injuries in passenger car accidents with
post-collision fire:
3,867 incapacitating injuries
3,836 non-incapacitating injuries
2,486 possible injuries
"Fires in Motor Vehicle Accident," Peter Cooley (1974)[13]
This analysis done by Peter Cooley of the Highway Safety
Research Institute (HSRI, now the University of Michigan
Transportation Research Institute or UMTRI) provides data on
the total number of vehicle fires and the resulting
fatalities. In this analysis, Cooley studies accidents of
passenger cars to estimate the number of post-collision fires.
Furthermore, he analyzes the fatalities involved in
post-collision fires and determines whether the fatality was
"accompanied by" or "directly caused by" the post-collision
fire. Unfortunately, his data do not specify the source of the
fire (i.e., fuel tank). Since this report was written in 1974,
the data are based entirely on pre-standard vehicles. The key
data presented in this analysis include the following:
17,000 annual fires result from motor vehicle
accidents.
720-1,250 fatalities are accompanied by these fires.
450-650 fatalities are directly caused by the
vehicle fires.
"General Motors and Fuel System Collision Fires" (1974)[14]
This study provides General Motors'- point of view on the
fire hazards of motor vehicles. It offers statistics on the
number of passenger car fatalities caused directly by
post-collision fires and more specifically, fuel system
collision- fires. Since this study was performed in 1974, it
only relates to pre-standard vehicles. Key data include:
560-1,870 annual fatalities due to collision fires.
250 annual fatalities due to vehicle fuel system
collision fires.
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"A Perspective on Automobile Crash Fires," SAE 850092,
Warner, James and Woolley, (1985)[15]
This SAE publication analyzes previous studies regarding
automobile crash fires. The major conclusion from this
analysis is that post-collision fuel-fed fires cause
approximately 1-1.5 percent of all vehicle occupant fatalities
in spite of the FMVSS 301 improvements.
This concludes the data available on fuel tank-related
fires which were used in this analysis. Based on information
gathered from these motor vehicle fire data bases and previous
studies, the fire hazard of current vehicles can be estimated.
III. Analysis of Data
As shown in the previous section, Summary of Available
Data, the data bases and previous analyses regarding motor
vehicle fires provide different types of information covering
different time periods. With careful analysis, the information
obtained from these sources can be used to generate estimates
of fuel tank-related fires, fatalities, injuries, and property
damage for vehicles operating in the post-1990 time frame. In
the post-1990 time frame, essentially all light-duty vehicles
and light-duty trucks would be in compliance with FMVSS 301-75
and onboard refueling controls would be required on these
gasoline-powered motor vehicles.[9] Therefore, for purposes of
this analysis, the year 1990 is used to adjust the data by
vehicle miles travelled (VMT) to account for such a time frame.
Before these data can be used to generate the desired
estimates, two adjustments are necessary to get all data on a
common basis. First, all data must be put in terms of post-
standard fire rates, since refueling controls would be required
on post-standard vehicles only. To put the data in terms of
post-standard rates, the fraction of fires contributed by
pre-standard vehicles was determined using the estimated
percentage of VMT by these vehicles when the data were
taken.[16,17] These pre-standard fractions were then- adjusted
to post-standard rates based on the effectiveness of FMVSS
301-75 given in the aforementioned NHTSA report.[12] Since it
is reasonable to assume that most rear-end and rollover
accident fires occur in the fuel tank area, a fuel tank-related
fire reduction factor for FMVSS 301-75 was calculated using the
pre- and post-standard fire rates for rear-end and rollover
collisions shown in Table 1. For purposes of this analysis,
these overall post-collision and fuel tank-related fire
reduction factors for FMVSS 301-75 were estimated to be 32.7
and 36.9 percent, respectively.
The estimated fire reduction factors for FMVSS 301-75
discussed above are based on fire data involving only passenger
cars. It should be noted that these adjustment factors were
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applied to all data sources, including PARS and NFIRS, which
include fires from other vehicles besides passenger cars (e.g.,
light-duty trucks, buses, and heavy-duty vehicles). Absent any
other data, it is reasonable to assume that FMVSS 301-75 would
reduce fires involving light-duty trucks and school buses as
effectively as the NHTSA report shows for passenger cars.
Using the fire reduction factors on heavy-duty vehicle (over
10,000 pound gross weight) data, however, could possibly
underestimate the number of fires and their consequences, since
these vehicles do not have to comply with FMVSS 301-75. To put
such a possible underestimation in proper perspective, it is
important to note that heavy-duty vehicles account for less
than five percent of the in-use vehicles and VMT each year, and
information in the appendix to this report suggests that these
vehicles contribute only a few percent of the annual motor
vehicle fires. [ 18,19] Nevertheless, it is important to note
that by 1973 all fuel tanks manufactured for heavy-duty
vehicles which are involved in interstate commerce must comply
with OMCS performance requirements.[20] Therefore, applying
the fire reduction factors estimated from NHTSA's report to
data sources which include fires from heavy-duty vehicles (FARS
and NFIRS) should not introduce an appreciable error to the
fire estimate projections presented in this analysis.
Second, after the data are adjusted to post-standard fire
rates it is also necessary to consider that increasing VMT
between the time when the data were generated and 1990 would
increase the absolute number of fuel tank fires and related
after effects. It is logical to project that absent other
measures, fires and subsequent fatalities, etc., would increase
as VMT increases. It should be noted that fatality rates based
on VMT have generally declined over the last several
years.[21] However, absent any other method to account for the
effects of the increase in vehicles and VMT between the time
when the data were collected and 1990, using VMT for this
adjustment seems reasonable. Thus, all data were adjusted to
1990 using the ratio of the 1990 total VMT to the total VMT of
the year(s) in which the data were generated.[18]
One other adjustment which was considered but not
incorporated into this analysis is the effect of vehicle aging
on fire rates. If vehicle aging does affect fire rates, the
data adjustments for pre- to post-standard vehicles would have
to be adjusted further. This concern arises because the pre-
and post-standard fire rate data used to develop the adjustment
factor did not use all vehicles of the same age. The post-
standard fire rate was based on vehicles 0-4 years old, and the
pre-standard rate was based on vehicles 3-8 years old.[12]
Thus, there is the possibility that the adjustment factor could
be too large since it incorporates the effect of different fire
rates on different age vehicles, in addition to the
improvements brought by the safety standard.
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Fire rates (fires per crash) may vary by vehicle age
because changes in driving patterns (less high speed freeway,
more lower speed urban area), ownership, fuel system component
deterioration, and lack of maintenance with vehicle age may
have an effect on the possibility of a fire in the event of an
accident. The net effect of these factors was evaluated using
data from the NHTSA technical report.[12] Using this report,
preliminary analysis of the data concluded that the effect of
aging is probably small. However, an accurate and more
conclusive determination (either quantitatively or
directionally) cannot be made until more information becomes
available with greater range in vehicle age. NHTSA plans to
update their evaluation of FMVSS 301-75 in the near future
based on more recent data. Regarding the effect of vehicle
aging, it is interesting to note, that the 1985 PARS data
suggest that the percent of vehicle accidents (not fires) by
model year are directly proportional to registrations of that
model year's vehicles, not VMT.[21] This supports the
hypothesis that vehicle aging has no effect on vehicle
accidents.
IV. Development of 1990 Vehicle Fire Data
The data on motor vehicle fires extracted from the six
sources were collectively analyzed, according to the
methodology described above, to estimate the annual number of
post-collision and fuel tank related fires and the resulting
fatalities, injuries and property damage. As previously
mentioned, to be useful the characteristics of all available
data must be put in terms of a common basis. Therefore, the
fire data were scaled to represent post-standard vehicles
operating in the year 1990 when essentially all vehicles in-use
will meet FMVSS 301.
Very few sources directly provide statistics for fuel
tank-related fires. In fact, only three of the sources studied
provide such statistics: NFIRS, the General Motors study, and
SAE paper 850092.[11,14,15] Another method to estimate the
statistics for fuel tank fires in particular is to approximate
the percentage of total post-collision fires which are fuel
tank-related. Since it is logical to assume that most of the
fuel tank-related fires result from rollover and rear end
collisions, this percentage can be estimated from the total
fraction of these collision types. Using this assumption and
the NHTSA report, it can be calculated that fuel tank fires
account for approximately 31 percent of the total collision
fires.[12] With this percentage factor, post-collision fire
data from the remaining sources can be used to estimate the
number of fuel tank-related fires and their subsequent effects.
Table 4 presents the 1990 post-standard motor vehicle fire
data generated from the six sources used in this analysis. The
data presented include the number of vehicle fires and/or their
aftereffects for post-collision fires and particularly for fuel
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Table 4
1990 Post-Standard Vehicle Fire Data
Source/Statistic
PARS
Fires with Fatalities
Fatalities
NFIRS
Vehicle Fires
Fatalities
Injuries
Property Damage
NHTSA Report
Vehicle Fires
Fatalities
Injuries:
Incapacitating
Non-Incapacitating
Possible
Cooley's Report
Vehicle Fires
Fatalities
GM Study
Fatalities
SAE 850092
Fatalities
Post Collision
Fires
1,629
1,679
Fuel Tank-Related Fires
19,550
1,043
3,669
3,640
2,350
15,313
405-1,126
505-1,685
Collision
505
520
Collision &
Non-Collision
1,871
185
336
$14 million
6,060
323
1,137
1,128
728
4,747
126-349
211
560-839
10,730
236
625
$32 million
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tank fires (for both post-collision fires only and post-
collision and non-collision fires). As previously mentioned,
only the NFIRS, GM Study, and SAE 850092 directly report data
for fuel tank-related fires. Fuel tank fire statistics for
collisions from the remaining sources (PARS, NHTSA report,
Cooley's report) were estimated by scaling the post-collision
fire data with the percentage of fuel tank fires approximated
from Parsons' report (31 percent). Therefore, the data in
Table 4 encompasses all of the available data and presents a
reasonable range of the fire hazards for motor vehicles in the
year 1990.
The data from the six sources presented in Table 4 can be
summarized for both the post-collision and fuel tank-related
fires as presented below:
• Post-Collision Motor Vehicle Fires (annual
projections)
15,300-19,600 annual fires
400-1,700 fatalities
3,700 serious injuries
3,600 moderate injuries
• Fuel Tank-Related Fires (annual projections)
. 4,750-10,700 fuel tank-related fires (for both
collision and non-collision fires)*
1,870-6,060 fuel tank-related fires (for
collision fires only)*
126-839 fatalities
625-1,140 serious injuries (for both collision
and non-collision fires)
336-1,140 serious injuries (for collision fire
only)
1,130 moderate injuries
$32 million property damage (for both
collision and non-collision fires)
$14 million property damage (for collision
fires only)
These statistics, based on extrapolations to 1990,
represent a reasonable range for the fire hazards of motor
vehicles for the post-1990 time frame, when refueling controls
may be required. As can be seen from these statistics, a large
percentage of fuel tank-related fires are non-collision fires.
Statistics for non-collision fires only cannot be obtained
directly by subtracting these ranges. These ranges are
based on several sources which report collision fires or
collision and non-collision fires.
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V. Summary and Conclusions
In response to the recent concerns regarding the potential
safety implications of onboard refueling controls, this
analysis estimated the potential hazard of fuel tank-related
fires for both current motor vehicles and in the post-1990
timeframe when essentially all in-use passenger cars and
light-duty trucks would meet FMVSS 301-75. This assessment
provides a baseline from which to assess any change in risk
which could occur as a result of the addition of onboard vapor
recovery systems.
As shown in this report, very few sources of motor vehicle
fire data exist which accurately assess and characterize the
fire hazard for current vehicles. This analysis uses fire
information from two data bases and four past analyses of motor
vehicle fires to perform a vehicle fire hazard assessment.
With careful analysis, the fire information obtained from these
sources were used to estimate a range for the number of fuel
tank-related fires and their consequences for vehicles in the
post-1990 time frame, when onboard refueling controls could be
required on gasoline-fueled motor vehicles. In order to put
all data on a common basis, this analysis accounts for both the
effectiveness of FMVSS 301-75 and the increase in VMT from when
the data were generated and 1990. From this analysis, the
following statistics summarize the hazards of fuel tank-related
fires for motor vehicles on an annual basis, projected for the
post-1990 timeframe:
- 1,870-10,700 annual fuel tank-related fires
126-839 fatalities
- 336-1,140 serious injuries
1,130 moderate injuries
- $14-$32 million property damage
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References
1. "Safety Implications of Onboard Refueling Vapor
Recovery Systems," U.S. EPA-AA-SDSB-87-05, June 1987.
2. "Analysis of Fuel Tank-Related Fires," EPA
Memorandum, Kathleen A. Steilen to Charles L. Gray, U.S. EPA,
OAR, QMS, OMS, ECTD, SDSB, June 10, 1987.
3. National Fire Incident Reporting System, Motor
Vehicle Fire Tallys, FEMA, .U.S. Fire Administration, 1980-1985.
4. Letter, Ralph J. Hitchcock, NHTSA to Chester J.
France, U.S. EPA, September 21, 1987.
5. Letter, John Glenn Hart III, U.S. Fire
Administration to Kathleen A. Steilen, U.S. EPA, September 16,
1987.
6. Motor Vehicle Safety Standard No. 301, Fuel Tanks,
Fuel Tank Filler Pipes, and Fuel Tank Connections - Passenger
Cars: 32 FR 2416, February 3, 1967, Part 571: S 301-1.
7. Motor Vehicle Safety Standard No. 301-75, Fuel
System Integrity: 39 FR 10588, March 21, 1974, Part 571:
S 301-75-5.1, 5.2, 5.3.
8. Motor Vehicle Safety Standard No. 301-75, Fuel
System Integrity: 40 FR 48352, October 15, 1975, Part 571:
S 301-75-5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4.
9. "Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles
and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Refueling Emission Regulations
for Gasoline-Fueled Light-Duty Vehicles and Trucks and
Heavy-Duty Vehicles," Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, FRN: pp.
31162-31271, August 19, 1987.
10. Fatal Accident Reporting System, NHTSA, DOT,
1,980-1984.
11. National Fire Incident Reporting System, FEMA, U.S.
Fire Administration, 1980-1985.
12. "Evaluation of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard
301-75, Fuel System Integrity: Passenger Cars," DOT
HS-806-335, January 1983.
13. "Fires In Motor Vehicle Accidents," UM-HSRI-SA-74-3,
Peter Cooley, April 1974.
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-19-
14. "General Motors and Fuel System Collision Fires,"
Environmental Activities Publication No. A-3177, December 16,
1974.
15. "A Perspective on Automobile Crash Fires," SAE
850092, Warner, James and Woolley, 1985.
16. "Revised Diesel Sales Fraction Projections," U.S.
EPA Memorandum, John W. Mueller to Charles C. Gray, January 9,
1987.
17. "Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors,
Volume II: Mobile Sources," AP-42, Fourth Edition, September
1985.
18. "MOBILES Fuel Consumption Model," U.S. EPA-AA-TEB-
EF-85-2, Mark A. Wolcott and Dennis F. Kahlbaum, February 1985.
19. "MVMA Motor Vehicle Facts and Figures 1987," Motor
Vehicle Manufacturers Association of the United States, Inc.,
1987.
20. "Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulations and Noise'
Emission Requirements," Bureau of Motor Carrier Safety, Federal
Highway Administration, U.S. DOT, October 31, 1983.
21. "Fatal Accident Reporting System 1985, A Review of
Information on Fatal Traffic Accidents in the U.S. in 1985,"
NHTSA, DOT, 1985.
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Appendix
NFIRS Detailed Data
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A 2
Table A-l
NFIRS Tally by Mobile Property Type
- Annual Nationwide Projection Averages 1980 through 1985
- Collision and Non-Collision Fires
Mobile Property Type
Automobile
Bus, Trackless Trolley
Terrain Vehicles
Pass. Road Trans, Other
Pass. Road Trans, Unc.
Pass. Road Trans
Truck - Over 1 ton
Truck - Under 1 ton
Semi-Trailer Truck
Tank Truck - Non-Flam.
Tank Truck - Flam Lqd.
Tank Truck - Comp. Gas
Trash Truck
Freight Road Trans, Other
Freight Road Trans, Unc.
Freight Road Trans
Fires
Injuries Deaths Loss (x!06$)
443,958
3,622
8,212
1,458
3,463
460,713
19,382
35,994
7,821
289
1,131
372
3989
530
4961
74,469
3,344
41
246
29
23
3,683
260
455
114
10
110
14
15
8
31
1016
726
4
24
1
2
758
53
113
46
2
20
1
0
0
10
245
689.92
10.31
11.30
2.87
1.96
716.36
60.86
49.78
59.65
1.43
10.50
1.91
8.05
2.15
16.99
211.33
Total
535,183
4,699
1,003
927.68
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A 3
Table A-2
NFIRS Tally by Area of Fire Origin*
- Annual Nationwide Projection Averages 1980 through 1985
- Collision and Non-Collision Fires
Vehicle Area Fires Injuries Deaths Loss (x!06$)
Passenger Area 100,616 868 202 250.52
Trunk Area 18,659 274 30 36.79
Engine Area 332,681 1,964 286 388.92
Fuel Tank Area 10,828 631 237 32.18
Control Area 7,121 58 8 17.70
Exterior Surface 6,931 80 14 10.97
Not Classified 11,179 136 43 21.66
Total 488,015 4,010 821 758.74
This tally includes only vehicle fires in which the fire
originated in the vehicle. The total is smaller than the
total of Table A-l because it excludes apparent NFIRS
reporting errors and vehicles that were involved in fires
which did not originate within the vehicle.
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A 4
Table A-3
1990 Post - FMVSS 301-75
Annual Projections for Motor Vehicle Fires
- Collision and Non-Collision Fires
- Based on 1980-1985 data
Area of Fire Origin Fires Injuries Deaths Loss (xlp6$)
Passenger Area 101,300 874 204 253.04
Trunk Area 18,782 275 - 30 37.12
Engine Area 335,358 1,978 287 393.43
Fuel Tank Area 10,731 625 236 31.97
Control Area 7,175 58 9 17.88
Exterior Surface 7,005 80 14 11.09
Not Classified 11,255 137 43 21.86
Total 491,605 4,028 822 766.39
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Year
A 5
Table A-4
NFIRS Annual Fuel Tank Fire Tally
- Collision Fires Only
Nationwide Projections
1990 Post-FMVSS 301-75 Projections
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Fires
2418
1945
1771
1725
1494
Injuries
366
353
329
387
245
Deaths
228
159
160
222
154
Loss(M$)
17.66
10.76
12.08
16.51
12.75
Fires
2363
1942
1786
1747
1515
Injuries
357
352
332
392
248
Deaths
223
159
162
225
156
Loss (x!05$)
17.26
10.74
12.18
16.71
12.92
Avg.
1871
336
185
13.95
1871
336
185
13.96
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