EPA-AA-TEB-81-17 Air Quality Analysis for the 1984 High Altitude Report to Congress Summary of Results Mark Wolcott April 1981 Test and Evaluation Branch Emission Control Technology Division Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control Environmental Protection Agnecy ------- -2- Alr Quality Analysis for the 1984 High Altitude Report to Congress Summary of Results This report describes the data, assumptions, and methodology used in the air quality analysis for the 1984 High Altitude Report to Congress. Detailed descriptions of the strategies examined and the mobile source emission factors associated with each strategy are included in this report only by reference.[1], [2]1 Analytical Overview Basically, four types of control strategies were considered; these are illustrated by the diagrams below: All Altitude Standard Fixed Point .Standard g/m g/m Low . High Altitude Low High Altitude Continuously Proportional Standard Fixed Point, Proportional Standard g/m g/m Low High Altitude Low High Altitude These four basic strategies are examined without an inspection and maintenance (1/M) program, first for only light duty vehicles (LDV) and second, for light duty vehicles and light duty trucks (LDT) combined.2 Next, these strategies are assumed to include an inspection and maintenance program. Changes in each of the three major mobile source pollutants: carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and oxides of nitrogen (NOx), are examined for their ambient air quality effects in four urban areas: Denver, Colorado Springs, Albuquerque, and Salt Lake City. ^The list of references cited follows the conclusion of this text. all altitude strategy is applied only to light duty vehicles. ------- -3- Air Qualify Models The modified.linear rollback model (ROLLBACK) was used to estimate future CO and NOx ambient concentrations. In ROLLBACK, a proportional relationship is assumed to exist between the ambient concentration of a pollutant at a monitoring site and the total inventory of pollutants emitted in the vicinity of that site. Thus, if emissions decline over time, ambient concentrations are assumed to decline in the same proportion. A detailed description of ROLLBACK is contained in reference [3]. Ozone predictions are made using the Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA). EKMA is a slightly more sophisticated model than ROLLBACK for ozone. EKMA reflects the fact that the relationship between oxidant air quality and emissions is a complex one involving chemical reactions between NMHC and NOx emissions in the presence of sunlight. The isopleth curves shown in Jigure 1 describe the relationship used in EKMA between the maximum hourly afternoon ozone level and the concentration levels of the precursors NMHC and NOx. These curves have been calibrated primarily with smog chamber data.[4] Inventories The National Emission Data System (NEDS) provided the basic inventory estimates for the four urban areas listed in Table l.[5] The base inventory used in this analysis is for 1978. NEDS provides estimates for both mobile and stationary emission sources. However, since the highway mobile source portion of the current (1978) NEDS inventory utilizes March, 1978 emission factors (MOBILE1), this portion of the inventory was adjusted for the new emission factors contained in MOBILE2.^[6], [7] Appendix A contains both sets of emission rates, the resulting adjustment factor and both the original NEDS inventory based on MOBILE1 and the inventory used in this analysis based on MOBILE2. Stationary area source emissions were obtained directly from NEDS. ?or CO and NOx, the total pollutant tonnage emitted within the county containing these urban areas was used as the base year inventory. For ozone, the total tonnage emitted within the Air Quality Control Region (AQCR) was used. A larger geographic area was used to model ozone, since peak ozone concentrations result from chemical reactions that generally culminate some distance from the original precursor emissions. Source Contribution Factors A source contribution factor is designed to account for stack height and distance between an emissions source and the ambient monitor. Since dispersion models have indicated that CO and NOx stationary point source emissions do not influence the ambient concentration measurements made at urban monitors, those sources are assigned a stationary source contribution factor of zero. [8] On the other hand, since CO is generally considered a short term, local problem, CO stationary area MOBILE2 was modified slightly for this analysis. See reference [2]. Stationary point source NOx emissions, however, do contribute to the acid rain problem. ------- -4- sources as well as off-highway mobile sources are assigned source contribution factors of 0.20; that is, emissions from those sources are discounted to 20 percent of their actual value. Emissions from highway mobile sources are not discounted. The N02 NAAQS is expressed as an annual average, in contrast with CO, which is expressed as an 8-hour average. The long averaging time for NOx cancels the effect that the spatial distribution of NOx emission sources might otherwise have. For this reason, NOx emissions from both stationary area sources and all mobile sources are fully counted. Ozone is a secondary pollutant that results from the interaction of NMHC and NOx in the presence of sunlight. It is generally considered a regional rather than a local problem. Therefore, all ozone precursor sources, including stationary point source emissions, are fully counted. Design Values Design values are measured ambient air quality concentrations from which future concentrations are predicted. The data are generally collected by the states and entered into the Storage and Retrieval of Aerometric Data (SAROAD) system maintained by EPA. Design values are calculated from those data in a manner that conforms to the NAAQS for the pollutant and urban area under study. The design values for CO, for example, are based upon the second maximum non-overlapping 8-hour concentrations in the worst year of record. The design values used for NOx are based on the maximum annual average in the worst year of record, since the N02 standard is expressed as an annual average. The ozone standard, on the other hand, is expressed as a daily maximum one hour concentration in the worst year of record. ?or this analysis the worst year of record in the 1977-1979 three year period was used.-' Background Levels Natural background ambient pollutant concentrations are the result of emissions from natural sources, such as decaying vegetation, forest fires, and lightning. All man-made sources are specifically excluded from this classification, even if the pollution originates from sources outside of the study area and is transported into the area by repetitive weather patterns. Normally, natural background sources of all three pollutants contribute a negligible amount to the ambient concentrations measured at urban monitoring sites. In this analysis, natural background levels were assumed to be zero. This is in keeping with recent EPA guidance.[9], [10] ^ROLLBACK only requires that ambient pollutant concentrations be known for the same year that the emissions inventory is estimated. However, design values are generally estimated from the worst year of record in the three year period bracketing the base year inventory. This approach prevents ROLLBACK from underestimating future concentration levels in the presence of one year of favorable meteorological conditions. ------- -5- Stationary Source Control Basically, no control was assumed on stationary sources of either CO or NOx emissions, since emissions from these sources are generally attributed to space heating devices and the likelihood of controls being applied to them is low. NMHC emissions from stationary source, however, do contribute to ozone formation through a reaction with NOx. New source performance standards (NSPS) and reasonably available control technologies (RACT) exist for many NMHC sources.[8] A summary of the control efficiencies assumed for this analysis is contained in Table 2. Control ranges from zero percent for miscellaneous area sources and fuel combustion to as high as 90% for sources in the petroleum industry. The "no control" case is numerically expressed as a zero efficiency level. Growth and Retirement Rates Table 2 also indicates the stationary source growth and retirement rates assumed. Since area CO and NOx sources are, for the most part, space heating devices, their usage rate has been assumed to increase at the population growth rate. The retirement rate is essentially a scrapage rate, that is, the rate at which old equipment is retired and replaced by new equipment. For the purposes of this analysis, a zero retirement is assumed for both CO and NOx stationary area sources. The growth and retirement rates for NMHC are also indicated in Table 2.[8] The mobile source growth rates assumed to apply in this analysis are listed in Table 3, under the heading "Medium Growth". The heavy duty gasoline and diesel truck rates and the motorcycle growth rates are derived directly from the Methodology to Conduct Air Quality Assesements[8]. The growth rate of non-highway mobile sources is an approximate average of the rates listed for separate categories in that publication. The light duty truck and passenger vehicle fleet growth rates were derived from the data presented in the "Automotive Fuel Demand" [11] using the methodology presented in the Assessments reference. The two sets of calculations differ only in that the Assessments reference imputes an annual growth rate based on the differences between 1990 versus 1977 vehicles miles traveled (VMT) estimates, whereas the rates listed in Table 3 are based on 1995 versus 1977 VMT levels. The effect of this change is to lower the annual compound growth rate. To provide a range of air quality estimates, two additional sets of mobile source growth rates were included in the analysis. The "Low Growth" case is simply one percentage point less than the "Medium Growth" case for all highway mobile sources. The "High Growth" case is one percentage point more. Based upon the best available information at this time, it is likely that future trends in VMT will fall within the specified ranges. Neither off-highway mobile nor stationary source growth rates were changed for the alternative cases. ------- -6- Emission Ratios ROLLBACK uses what are called emission factor ratios to project future inventories. These ratios are derived by dividing the emission factors projected for future calendar years by the base year emission factor, in this case for 1978. This calculation is carried out for each vehicle category in each projection year. In general, the smaller the numbers, the greater will be the expected improvement in air quality. The ratios are presented in Tables 4-8. There are two tables each for CO and ozone.. One table of each pair assumes that inspection and maintenance programs are in place by 1982; the other table does not make that assumption. There is one table for NOx. Tables such as these are useful because they highlight the mobile source differences among scenarios. If the fixed point, proportional standard for LDVs is considered as the basis of comparison in Table 4, for example, the first four scenarios differ only in the emission factors assumed for light duty gas vehicles and for diesel vehicles (DV). Indeed, as reference [2] shows, only the light duty diesel component of DVs differs among the first four scenarios. Heavy duty diesel emission rates do not change.^ Summary of Results The region by region air quality projections for each scenario are presented in Appendices B-F. These appendices display the expected ambient concentration levels for each city in each projection year. The expected number of NAAQS violations is also shown. However, when comparing emission control strategies, it is generally better to focus on the relative aggregate differences in air quality levels rather than on the absolute numbers of predicted violations for each urban area. Table 9 describes the average percent change, from 1978 levels, of the expected 8-hour average ambient CO concentrations, assuming inspection and maintenance programs are in place by January 1, 1982. As the table indicates, if the fixed point statutory standard is promulgated on schedule and if inspection and maintenance programs are implemented by 1982, then in 1995 the 8-hour average ambient CO concentration levels will be 71 percent lower than they were in 1978 (medium growth case). Adopting other than the fixed point, statutory standard will result in a smaller air quality improvement. A smaller improvement would also be expected if growth in vehicle miles traveled is greater than forecast. Under the high growth set of scenarios, for example, only a 67 percent reduction is expected with the ^Only a few light duty diesels were manufacture red in 1978. By 1995, approximately 15 percent of total VMT is expected to be accumulated by light duty diesels. Since ROLLBACK grows base year emissions to estimate emissions in future years, it was necessary to combine all diesel vehicle types into one category. The DV emission ratios were adjusted to reflect this combination of vehicle types. Heavy duty emission rates were not substituted for light duty rates. ------- -7- light duty vehicle fixed point, statutory standard. This contrasts with the 76 percent reduction achieved if VMT growth is on the low side of the projected range. Inspection and maintenance programs also play an important role in these projections. Without inspection and maintenance (Table 10), the rate of reduction in ambient CO concentration levels can fall as low as 49 percent. That can make the difference between NAAQS compliance and non-compliance. Table 11 describes the average percent change in expected N02 concentrations. Only one table is included for N02, since inspection and maintenance programs are not currently designed to impact NOx emissions. Tables 12 and 13 show the expected average percent change in ambient ozone concentrations, both with and without inspection and maintenance programs. As in t-he case of CO, the fixed point, statutory standard tends to show the greatest air quality improvement. Tables 14-18 have been provided to show the number of areas expected to exceed the NAAQS in each projection year. These tables should be used cautiously. A comparison of differences among scenarios is least apt to be affected by changes in the underlying analytical assumptions. Statements about the number of violations or the number of urban areas in non-attainment status as of any particular year can therefore be misleading. ------- -8- References 1. Report to Congress on the Control of Emissions From Light-Duty Vehicles and Trucks in High-Altitude Areas, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Ann Arbor, Michigan. 2. Wallace, J., "Description of MOBILE2 Runs Performed for the Congressional High Altitude Report", Memorandum to R. Wilcox, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Ann Arbor, Michigan, April, 1981. 3. N. DeNevers and J.R. Morris, "Rollback Modeling: Basic and Modified", Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association, 25, 943, September, 1975. 4. M.C. Dodge, "Combined Use of Modeling Techniques and Smog Chamber Data to Derive Ozone-Precusor Relationships", International Conference on Photochemical Oxidant Pollution and its Control, Proceedings: Volume JT^EPA-600/3-77-001b,U.S.Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, January, 1977. 5. AEROS, Volume 11, EPA/450-2-76-029, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 1976. 6. Mobile Source Emission Factors; Final Document, EPA 400/9-78-006, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. March, 1978. 7. Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors; Highway Mobile Sources, EPA 460/3-81-005, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Ann Arbor, Michigan, March, 1981. 8. Methodology to Conduct Air Quality Assessments of National Mobile Source Emission Control Strategies, Final Report,EPA-450/4-80-026, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, October, 1980. 9. Air Quality Criteria for Ozone and Other Photochemical Oxidants, Volume I, EPA 600/8-78-004, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. 10. Air Quality Criteria for Carbon Monoxide, EPA 600/8-79-022, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. 11. McNutt, B., Dulla, R. , and Lax, D., "Factors Influencing Automotive Fuel Demand," SAE Technical Paper Series No. 790226, Congress and Exposition, Detroit, Michigan, March, 1979. ------- NCI I HI: 1 0.0 ISOPLETII CURVES FROU'SUOG CII/UIBER EXPERIMENT Oi , .OQ .12 .16 .20 .24 .20 .32 .36 i VO I 0.4 0.6 O.Q I.Q 1.2 NMItC ppm C 1.4. 1.6 1.0 2.0 ------- -10- Table 1 Major High Altitude Urban Areas Urban Area County State AQCR 1970 Census Denver Colorado Springs Albuquerque Salt Lake City Denver El Paso Bernalillo Salt Lake Colorado Colorado New Mexico Utah 036 038 152 220 1,047,311 204,766 297,451 479,342 ------- -11- Table 2 Stationary Source Growth and Retirement Rates and Control Efficiencies Pollutant Description Growth Retirement NSPS RACT Rate Rate Efficiency Efficiency (percent) (percent) (percent) (percent) CO Area 0.8 0.0 No Control No Control NMHC Fuel Combustion 3.5 Miscellaneous 0.0 Petroleum Industry 1.9 Petroleum Storage 1.9 and Transport Industry A Area Solvent 0.8 Industrial Solvent 3.3 4.3 0.0 4.5 4.5 B 0.0 4.4 No Control No Control 90 80 65 30 60 No Control No Control 90* 80* 65* 30* 60* NOx Area 0.8 0.0 No Control No Control where Principal Source Denver 3.3 Colorado Springs 2.4 Albuquerque 3.3 Salt Lake City 1.3 4.4 5.0 4.4 4.9 Industrial Processes Primary Metal Products Industrial Processes Mineral Products *Since Colorado Springs and Albuquerque are both expected to meet the ozone NAAQS withoug RACT, no RACT control has been assumed for these areas. ------- -12- Table 3 Fleet Specific Mobile Source Growth Rates Low Median High Growth Growth Growth Light Duty Vehicle Fleet +0.4 +1.4 +2.4 Light Duty Truck I Fleet +2.7 +3.7 +4.7 Light Duty Truck II Fleet +4.8 +5.8 +6.8 Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicle Fleet -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Fleet +4.0 +5.0 +6.0 Motorcycle Fleet +1.5 +2.5 +3.5 Off-Highway Vehicles +2.5 +2.5 +2.5 ------- -13- TABLE 4 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSION FACTOR RATIOS (x100) WITH INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE VEHICLE CLASS LDV LDV, LOT STRATEGY ALL ALTITUDE STATUTORY FIXED POINT STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL YEAR LDGV LDGT HDGV DV ^^w~«^ ^ 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 * * 27 27 * 33 26 26 * * 29 30 39 34 28 29 * 33 26 26 * * 29 30 * * * * * * * * * * * * # '* * * 33 27 16 14 32 26 14 1 1 # 26 15 13 * 26 15 13 * * * * * * * * * * * * 86 72 31 18 * * * * * * * * * * * * * 52 32 25 * 52 32 25 * * * * 58 53 34 29 * 52 31 25 * * * 28 * * * 28 * INDICATES NO CHANGE FROM THE FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL BASE CASE ------- TABLE 5 OXIDES OF NITROGEN EMISSION FACTOR RATIOS (x100) WITH INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE VEHICLE CLASS LDV LDV, LDT STRATEGY ALL ALTITUDE, STATUTORY FIXED POINT, STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE, CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL YEAR LDGV LDGT HDGV DV 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 * * 77 79 * * * * * * 77 79 77 76 76 77 * * * * * * 77 79 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 80 74 50 41 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 103 121 79 63 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 55 49 16 9 * * * * * * * * * * * * * INDICATES NO CHANGE FROM THE FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL BASE CASE ------- -o- TABLE 6 NON-METHANE HYDROCARBON EMISSION FACTOR RATIOS 1x100' WITH INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE VEHICLE CLASS LDV STRATEGY LDV, LOT ALL ALTITUDE STATUTORY FIXED POINT, STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE, CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL YEAR LDGV LDGT HDGV DV 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 * * * 16 * * * 16 * * * * 37 32 19 17 * * * 16 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 32 27 14 10 * 26 13 9 * 26 * * * 26 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 66 55 25 16 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 27 21 * * 27 21 * * * * 58 52 28 22 * 51 26 20 * * * * * * * * * INDICATES NO CHANGE FROM THE FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL BASE CASE ------- TABLE 7 CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSION FACTOR RATIOS (x100! WITHOUT INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE VEHICLE CLASS LDV LDV, LOT STRATEGY ALL ALTITUDE STATUTORY FIXED POINT, STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE, CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL YEAR LDGV LDGT HDGV DV 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 * * * 41 * * 41 37 * 56 45 44 61 55 43 40 * * 41 37 * 56 45 44 * * * * * * * * * # * * * * * * 49 44 27 22 * 42 25 19 * 43 26 20 * 43 26 20 * * * * * * * * * * * * 86 72 31 18 * * * * * * * * * * * * * 52 32 25 * 52 32 25 * * * * 58 53 34 29 * 52 31 25 * * * 28 * * * 28 * INDICATES NO CHANGE FROM THE FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL BASE CASE ------- -17- TABLE 8 NON-METHANE HYDROCARBON EMISSION FACTOR RATIOS (x100 WITHOUT INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE VEHICLE CLASS LDV STRATEGY YEAR LDGV LDGT HDGV DV LDV, LDT ALL ALTITUDE, STATUTORY FIXED POINT, STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE, CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, STATUTORY ALL ALTITUDE, CONTINUOUSLY PROPORTIONAL FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 1984 1985 1990 1995 * * 28 * * 45 28 * * * * 24 51 46 29 23 * 45 28 * * * * 24 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 43 38 21 15 42 37 20 14 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 66 55 25 16 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 27 21 * * 27 21 * * * * 58 52 28 22 * 51 26 20 * * * * * * * * * INDICATES NO CHANGE FROM THE FIXED POINT, PROPORTIONAL BASE CASE ------- -18- Table 9 Average Percent Change in Expected 8 Hour Average Ambient CO Concentrations from 1978 Base Year With Inspection and Maintenance Growth Vehicle Rate Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 Low LDV LDV, LOT Medium LDV LDV, LOT High LDV LDV, LOT All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional -54 -54 -54 -54 -54 -54 -54 -52 -52 -52 -52 -52 -52 -52 -49 -49 -49 -49 -49 -49 -49 -61 -62 -61 -61 -62 -61 -61 -58 -59 -58 -58 -59 -58 -58 -55 -56 -55 -55 -56 -55 -55 -73 -74 -72 -73 -74 -72 -73 -70 -71 -69 -69 -71 -69 -69 -67 -67 -65 -65 -68 -65 -66 -75 -76 -73 -73 -76 -73 -74 -71 -71 -68 -69 -72 -68 -69 -65 -67 -63 -64 -67 -63 -64 ------- -19- Table 10 Average Percent Change in Expected 8 Hour Average Ambient CO Concentrations from 1978 Base Year Without Inspection and Maintenance Growth Vehicle Rate Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 Low LDV LDV, LDT tedium LDV LDV, LDT iigh LDV LDV, LDT All altitude, statutory Fixed point-statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point-statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -38 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -45 -45 -44 -45 -45 -44 -45 -41 -41 -40 -41 -41 -40 -41 -37 -37 -36 -37 -37 -36 -37 -61 -62 -60 -61 -63 -60 -62 -57 -58 -55 -57 -59 -55 -57 -51 -53 -50 -51 -53 -50 -52 -65 -67 -63 -65 -68 -63 -66 -59 -62 -56 -59 -62 -57 -60 -52 -55 -49 -52 -56 -49 -53 ------- -20- Table 11 Average Percent Change in Expected N02 Concentrations from 1978 Base Year Growth Vehicle Rate Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 Low LDV LDV, LDT Medium LDV LDV, LDT High LDV LDV, LDT All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 +5 «Q ..Q -9 -9 -9 -9 -9 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 s +1 -1 +1 -1 -1 +1 -1 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 0 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 +6 ------- -21- Table 12 Average Percent Change in Expected Ambient Oxone Concentrations from 1978 Base Year With Inspection and Maintenance Growth Vehicle Rate Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 Low LDV LDV, LDT Medium LDV LDV, LDT High LDV LDV, LDT All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -18 -18 -18 -18 -18 -18 -18 -17 -17 -17 -17 -17 -17 -17 -21 -21 -21 -21 -21 -21 -21 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -26 -26 -26 -26 -26 -26 -26 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -23 -23 -23 -23 -24 -23 -23 -25 -25 -25 -25 -26 -25 -25 -23 -23 -23 -23 -24 -23 -23 -22 -22 -21 -21 -22 -21 -21 ------- -22- Table 13 Average Percent Change in Expected Ambient Oxone Concentrations from 1978 Base Year Without Inspection and Maintenance Growth Vehicle Rate Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 Low LDV LDV, LDT Medium LDV LDV, LDT High LDV LDV, LDT All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13 -13 -16 -16 -16 -16 -17 -16 -16 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -14 -23 -23 -22 -22 -23 -22 -22 -21 -21 -20 -20 -21 -20 -20 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19 -22 -22 -22 -22 -23 -22 -22 -21 -21 -20 -20 -21 -20 -20 -18 -18 -18 -18 -19 -18 -18 ------- -23- Table 14 Number of Counties with Inspection and Maintenance Expected to Exceed the CO 8 Hour Average National Ambient Air Quality Standard Growth Vehicle Rate Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 Low LDV LDV, LDT Medium LDV LDV, LDT High LDV LDV, LDT All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ------- -24- Table 15 Number of Counties without Inspection and Maintenance Expected to Exceed the CO 8 Hour Average National Ambient Air Quality Standard Growth Vehicle Rate Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 Low LDV LDV, LOT Medium LDV LDV, LOT High LDV LCV, LOT All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 I 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ------- -25- Table 16 Number of Counties Expected to Exceed the N0_ National Ambient Air Quality Standard Growth Vehicle Rate Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 Low LDV LDV, LOT Medium LDV LDV, LDT High LDV LDV, LDT All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ------- -26- Table 17 lumber of Air Quality Control Regions with Inspection and Maintenance Expected to Exceed :he Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard Jrowth Vehicle Late Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 ,ow LDV LDV, LDT tedium LDV LDV, LDT ligh LDV LDV, LDT All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All Altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ------- -27- Table 18 Number of Air Quality Control Regions without Inspection and Maintenance Expected to Exceed the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard Growth Vehicle Rate Class Strategy Projection Year 1984 1985 1990 1995 Low LDV LDV, LDT Medium LDV LDV, LDT High LDV LDV, LDT All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional All altitude, statutory Fixed point; statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional Fixed point, statutory All altitude, continuously proportional Fixed point, proportional 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 ------- -28- List of Appendicies A Base Year Mobile Source Emission Factor Estimates and Emission Inventory B CO County Air Quality Projections With Inspection and Maintenance Programs C CO County Air Quality Projections Without Inspection and Maintenance Programs D N02 County Air Quality Projections E Ozone Regional Air Quality Projections With Inspection and Maintenance Programs F Ozone Regional Air Quality Projections Without Inspection and Maintenance Programs ------- -29- Appendix A Base Year Mobile Source Emission Factor Estimates and Emission Inventories ------- -30- Table A-l Inventory Adjustments for 1978 Base Year LOG MC LDV LDT1 LDG2 LDT HDG HDD MOBILE II NMHC 7.17 13.56 7.241 7.47 11.42 8.89 22.58 8.57 CO 84.28 53.08 83.937 83.46 115.77 95.07 401.65 21.34 NOx 2.19 0.15 2.168 2.35 3.30 2.70 6.63 25.59 Vehicle Mix .785 .009 Weight .989 .011 .083 .047 .638 .362 MOBILE I NMHC 7.89 CO 80.72 NOx 2.11 8.88 13.35 10.50 41.52 5.95 87.45 121.90 99.92 406.77 48.62 2.03 3.32 2.50 6.86 12.80 Adjustment Factor* NMHC CO NOx .918 1.040 1.027 .847 .544 1.436 .951 .987 .439 1.080 .966 1.999 *MOBILE II MOBILE I ------- -31- Table A-2 Emissions Inventory (1000 tons) LOG LOT HDG HD CO Denver MOBILE I 387.5 83.3 153.6 18.5 MOBILE II 403.0 79.3 151.6 8.1 Colorado Springs MOBILE I 136.1 29.5 25.1 1.2 MOBILE II 141.5 28.1 24.8 0.5 Alburquerque MOBILE I 127.5 28.0 23.6 7.4 MOBILE II 132.6 26.7 23.3 3.2 Salt Lake City MOBILE I 176.0 37.6 58.8 10.7 MOBILE II 183.0 35.8 58.0 4.7 NMHC Denver MOBILE I 67.4 14.7 21.3 2.9 MOBILE II 61.9 12.5 11.6 4.2 Colorado Springs MOBILE 1 23.2 5.1 4.2 0.3 MOBILE II 21.3 4.3 2.3 0.4 Alburquerque MOBILE I 14.5 3.2 2.2 1.0 MOBILE II 13.3 2.7 1.2 1.4 Salt Lake City MOBILE I 34.1 7.4 9.0 1.8 MOBILE II 31.3 6.3 4.9 2.6 NOx Denver MOBILE 1 10.1 2.3 2.8 5.2 MOBILE II 10.4 2.5 2.7 10.4 Colorado Springs MOBILE I 3.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 MOBILE II 3.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 Alburquerque MOBILE I 3.6 0.8 0.5 2.2 MOBILE II 3.7 0.9 0.5 4.4 Salt Lake City MOBILE I 4.9 1.1 1.1 3=1 MOBILE II 5.0 1.2 1.1 6.2 ------- -32- Appendix B CO County Air Quality Projections With Inspection and Maintenance Programs ------- -33- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE TOTAL NO. OF EXC YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. O. 0. 0. CONC 1O. 12. 7. 6. NUMB 1 5 0 0 -54 2 6 CONC 8. 10. 6. 5. NUMB 0 1 0 0 -61 . 1 1 CONC 6. 6. 4. 3. NUMB 0 0 0 0 -73. 0 0 CONC 6. 6. 4. 3. NUMB 0 0 0 0 -75. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. CONC 10. 12. 8. 6. NUMB 2 7 O O -52. 2 9 CONC 9. 1 1 . 7. 5. NUMB 0 2 . 0 0 -58. 1 2 CONC 7. 7. 5. 4. NUMB 0 0 0 0 -70. 0 0 CONC 7. 7. 5. 4. NUMB 0 0 0 O -71 . 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN tt\ GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE REGION YEAR CONC BKGD OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 22. 0. 031 DENVER 1978 25. 0. 035 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 16. O. 041 COLO SPRINGS 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 11. 3 1O. 1 8. 0 8. 0 13. 1O 11. 4 8. 0 8. 0 8. O 7. 0 5. O 5. O 6. 0 6. 0 4. 0 4. 0 -49. 2 13 -55. 2 5 -67. 0 O -65. 0 0 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -34- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 10. 1 8. 0 6. 0 6. 0 12. 5 10. 1 6. O 6. 0 7. 0 6. 0 4. 0 4. 0 6. O 5. O 3. 0 3. O -54. 2 6 -62. 1 1 -74. 0 0 -76. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN ff2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD C08 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE TOTAL NO. OF EXC YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. CONC 10. 12. 8. 6. NUMB 2 7 0 O -52 2 9 CONC 9. 10. 7. 5. NUMB 0 2 0 0 -59. 1 2 CONC 7. 7. 5. 4 . NUMB 0 O 0 O -71 . 0 0 CONC 7. 7. 5. 4 . NUMB O O 0 O -71 . O 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN tf2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE TOTAL NO. OF EXC *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. CONC 11 . 13. 8. 6. NUMB 3 10 0 0 -49. 2 13 CONC 9. 1 1 . 7. 5. NUMB 0 4 0 O -56. 1 4 CONC 8. 8. 5. 4. NUMB O O 0 O -67. 0 O CONC 8. 8. 5. 4. NUMB 0 O 0 O -67 . 0 0 ------- -35- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO C08 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1O. 1 8. 0 6. O 6. 0 12. 5 1O. 1 7. 0 6. 0 7. 0 6. 0 4. O 4. O 6. 0 5. 0 4. 0 3. 0 -54. -61. -72. -73. 2 1 O O 6100 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION YEAR OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 O31 DENVER 1978 035 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 O41 COLO SPRINGS 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. CONC 10. 12. 8. 6. NUMB 2 7 0 O -52. 2 9 CONC 9. 1 1 . 7. 5. NUMB 0 2 0 0 -58 1 2 CONC 7 . 8. 5. 4 . NUMB 0 0 0 0 -69. 0 0 CONC 8. 7 . 5. 4. NUMB 0 0 0 O -68. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 11. 3 10. 1 8. O 9. 0 13. 10 11. 4 8. 0 9. 0 8. 0 7. 0 6. 0 6. 0 6. 0 6. 0 4. 0 5. 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -49. 2 13 -55. 2 5 -65. 0 O -63. O 0 *** NOTE: AIR -QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -36- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION O01 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE 1984 YEAR CONC BKGO 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 7. 1978 13. 0. 6. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 10. 1 8. 0 6. 0 6. 0 12. 5 10. 1 6. 0 6. 0 O 0 -54. 2 6 6. 5. O 0 -61 . 1 1 O O -73. 0 O 4 . 3. 0 0 -73. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN //4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1O. 2 9. 0 7. O 7 . 0 12. 7 11. 2 7. 0 7. 0 8. 0 7. 0 5. O 5. 0 6. 0 5. 0 4. 0 4. 0 -52. 2 9 -58. 1 2 -69. O O -69. 0 O LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. O. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. O. 1978 13. O. 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 11. 3 10. 1 8. 0 9. O 13. 10 11. 4 8. 0 8. 0 8. 0 7. 0 5. 0 6. 0 6. 0 6. O 4. O 5. 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -49. 2 13 -55. 2 5 -65. O O -64. 0 O *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -37- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE O31 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE TOTAL NO. OF EXC YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. CONC 10. 12. 7. 6. NUMB 1 5 0 0 -54. 2 6 CONC 8. 10. 6. 5. NUMB 0 1 0 O -62 1 1 CONC 6. 6. 4. 3. NUMB 0 O 0 0 -74. 0 O CONC 6. 5. 4. 3. NUMB 0 0 0 O -76. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE TOTAL NO. OF EXC YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. CONC 10. 12. 8. 6. NUMB 2 7 0 0 -52. 2 9 CONC 9. 10. 7. 5. NUMB O 2 0 0 -59 1 2 CONC 7. 7 . 5. 4. NUMB O 0 0 0 -71 . 0 0 CONC 7. 6. 4. 3. NUMB 0 O 0 0 -72. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 11. 3 9. 0 7. 0 8. 0 13. 9 11. 3 8. O 8. 0 8. 0 7. O 5. 0 5. 0 6. 0 5. 0 4. 0 4. 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -49. 2 12 -56. 1 3 -68. 0 O -67. O O *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -38- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXC YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. O. 0. CONC 10. 12. 7 . 6. NUMB 1 5 0 0 -54. 2 6 CONC 8. 10. 6. 5. NUMB 0 1 0 0 -61 1 1 CONC 6. 7 . 4. 4 . NUMB 0 0 0 0 -72. 0 0 CONC 6. 6. 4 . 3. NUMB O O 0 0 -73. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. O. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 10. 2 9. 0 7. 0 8. 0 12. 7 10. 2 7. 0 7. 0 8. 0 7. 0 5. 0 5. O 6. O 5. O 4. 0 4. O -52. 2 9 -58. 1 2 -69. 0 O -68. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE O31 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. O. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. O. 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 11. 3 10. 1 8. O 9. 0 13. 1O 11. 4 8. O 9. O 8. 0 7. 0 6. 0 6. 0 6. O 6. O 4. O 5. 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -49. 2 13 -55. 2 5 -65. O 0 -63. O 0 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -39- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #7 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONG 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD O. O. O. O. CONC 10. 12. 7. 6. NUMB 1 5 0 O -54. 2 6 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 8. O 6. O 6. O 10. 1 6. 0 6. 0 6. 0 4. 0 4. 0 5. O 3. O 3. 0 -61 . 1 1 -73. O 0 -74. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #7 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. O. 0. CONC 10. 12. 8. 6. NUMB 2 7 0 0 -52. 2 9 CONC 9. 1O. 7. 5. NUMB O 2 0 0 -58 1 2 CONC 7. 7. 5. 4. NUMB O 0 O 0 -69. O O CONC 7. 7. 5. 4. NUMB 0 0 O 0 -69. 0 O LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #7 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. O. 1978 16. O. 1978 13. O. 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 11. 3 10. 1 8. O 8. 0 13. 10 11. 4 8. O 8. 0 8. 0 7. O 5. O 6. 0 6. 0 6. 0 4. 0 5. 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -49. 2 13 -55. 2 5 -66. 0 0 -64. 0 0 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -40- Appendlx C CO County Air Quality Projections Without Inspection and Maintenance Programs ------- -41- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. O. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 14.12 12. 7 9. O 8. O 15. 21 14. 12 9. O 8. 0 10. 1 9. 0 6. 0 5. 0 8. 0 7. 0 5. 0 5. 0 -38. 3 34 -45. 2 19 -61 . 0 O -65. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN H\ GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE O31 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXC YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. O. CONC 14. 16. 1O. 8. NUMB 16 26 2 0 -34. 3 44 CONC 13. 14. 9. 8. NUMB 9 16 0 O -41 . 2 25 CONC 1O. 1O. 7. 6. NUMB 1 2 0 O -57 2 3 CONC 1O. 9. 6. 5. NUMB 1 0 0 O -59. 1 1 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. O. 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 15. 20 14. 13 11. 3 11. 4 17. 33 16. 22 11. 4 11. 4 11. 3 10. 1 8. O 8. 0 9. 0 8. 0 6. O 6. 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -3O. 3 56 -37. 3 36 -51 . 2 7 -52. 2 8 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE ------- -42- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN HZ GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE TOTAL NO. OF EXC YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. CONC 14. 15. 10. 8. NUMB 12 21 1 0 -38. 3 34 CONC 12. 14. 9. 7. NUMB 7 12 O 0 -45. 2 19 199O 1995 9. 0 8. 0 0 8. O 0 5. 0 9. 6. 5. -62. 0 0 8. 5. 4. -67. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.0O PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION YEAR 001 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 O31 DENVER 1978 O35 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 041 COLO SPRINGS 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. CONC 14. 16. 10. 8. NUMB 16 26 2 0 -34. 3 44 CCNC 13. 14 . 9. 8. NUMB 9 16 0 0 -41 . 2 25 CONC 10. 10. 7. 5. NUMB 1 1 O 0 -58 2 2 CONC 9. 9. 6. 5. NUMB 0 O 0 O -62. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE O31 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. O. 1978 25. O. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. O. 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 15. 20 14. 13 11. 3 1O. 2 17. 33 16. 22 11. 3 10. 2 11. 3 10. 1 7. 0 7. O 9. 0 8. 0 6. 0 6. 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -30. 3 56 -37. 3 36 -53. -55. 2 4 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE ------- -43- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.0O PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. O. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. O. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 14. 12 12. 7 9. O 9. 0 15. 21 14. 12 9. 0 8. O 10. 1 9. O 6. O 6. O 8. 0 7. 0 5. O 5. 0 -38. 3 34 -44. 2 19 -6O. 0 0 -63. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN f/3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.0O PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 14. 16 13. 10 10. 2 10. 2 16. 26 15. 17 10. 2 10. 1 10. 2 9. 0 7. 0 7. 0 8. 0 8. O 6. O 6. 0 -34. 3 44 -40. 2' 27 -55. 2 4 -56. 2 3 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN H3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.CO PPM) PROJECTED REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. O. 1978 25. O. 1978 16. O. 1978 13. 0. 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 15. 2O 14. 14 11. 4 12. 6 17. 33 16. 23 12. 5 12. 6 11. 3 1O. 1 8. 0 8. O 9. 0 8. O 7. 0 7. 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -30. 3 56 -36. 3 38 -50. 2 9 -49. 2 12 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -44- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 REGION YEAR 001 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 031 DENVER 1978 035 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 O41 COLO SPRINGS 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. O. O. CONC 14. 15. 10. 8. NUMB 12 21 1 O -38. 3 34 CONC 12. 14. 9. 7. NUMB 7 12 0 O -45. 2 19 1990 1995 9. 0 8. 0 9. 0 8. 0 0 5. 0 6. 5. -61 . 0 0 5. 4. -65. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE O31 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONG BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 14. 16 13. 10 10. 1 10. 1 16. 26 14. 16 10. 2 9. 0 1O. 2 9. 0 7. 0 6. O 8. 0 8. 0 6. O 5. O -34. 3 44 -41 . 2 26 -57. 2 3 -59. 1 1 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. O. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 15. 20 14. 13 11. 3 11. 4 17. 33 16. 22 11. 4 11. 3 11. 3 10. 1 8. 0 8. 0 9. 0 8. O 6. O 6. O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -30. 3 56 -37. 3 36 -51 . 2 7 -52. 2 7 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -45- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS / TOTAL NO. OF EXC (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTS B YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES A S E CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. 1984 CONC 14. 15. 10. 8. NUMB 12 21 1 0 -38. 3 34 D 1985 CONC 12. 13. 9. 7. NUMB 6 11 0 0 -45. 2 17 1990 CONC 8. 9. 6. 5. NUMB 0 0 0 0 -63. O O 1995 CONC 8. 7. 5. 4 . NUMB 0 0 0 0 -68. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. O. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 14. 16 13. .9 9. O 9. 0 16. 26 14. 16 1O. 1 9. O 10. 2 9. 0 6. 0 6. 0 8. 0 8. 0 5. 0 5. 0 -34. 3 44 -41 . 2 25 -59. 1 1 -62. 0 O LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED BASE REGION YEAR CONC BKGD 001 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 22. 0. 031 DENVER 1978 25. O. 035 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 16. O. 041 COLO SPRINGS 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 15. 20 14. 13 11. 2 10. 2 17. 33 15. 21 11. 3 1O. 2 11. 3 1O. 1 7. 0 7. O 9. 0 8. 0 6. 0 6. 0 -30. 3 56 -37. 3 35 -53. 2 5 -56. 2 4 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE ------- -46- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. O. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 14. 12 12. 7 9. O 9. 0 15. 21 14. 12 9. 0 8. 0 10. 8. 1 0 -38. 3 34 9. 7. O 0 -44. 2 19 6. 5. 0 0 -60. 0 0 6. 5. 0 0 -63. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 14. 16 13. 10 1O. 2 10. 1 16. 26 15. 17 10. 2 1O. 1 10. 2 9. 0 7. 0 7. 0 8. O 8. 0 6. O 6. 0 -34. 3 44 -40. 2 27 -55. 2 4 -57. 2 2 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE REGION YEAR CONC BKGD 001 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 22. 0. 031 DENVER 1978 25. O. 035 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 16. 0. 041 COLO SPRINGS 1978 13. 0. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 15. 20 14. 14 11. 4 12. 5 17. 33 16. 23 12. 5 12. 5 11. 3 10. 1 8. 0 8. 0 9. 0 8. 0 6. O 7. 0 -30. 3 56 -36. 3 38 -50. 2 9 -49. 2 10 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE ------- -47- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN 07 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO COB AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 001 031 035 041 REGION YEAR ALBUQUERQUE 1978 DENVER 1978 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 COLO SPRINGS 1978 CONC 22. 25. 16. 13. BKGD 0. 0. 0. 0. CONC 14. 15. 1O. 8. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES NUMB 12 21 1 0 -38. 3 34 CONC 12. 13. 9. 7. NUMB 7 11 0 0 -45. 2 18 CONC 9. 9. 6. 5. NUMB 0 0 0 0 -62. O 0 CONC 8. 8. 5. 4. NUMB 0 0 0 0 -66. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN 07 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.OO PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. 0. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. O. AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 14. 16 13. 9 10. 1 9. 0 16. 26 14. 16 10. 2 9. 0 10. 2 9. 0 7. 0 6. 0 8. O 8. 0 6. O 5. 0 -34. 3 44 -41 . 2 25 -57. 2 3 -60. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN HI GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI COS AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS 9.00 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 22. O. 1978 25. 0. 1978 16. 0. 1978 13. 0. 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 15. 2O 14. 13 11. 3 11. 3 17. 33 15. 21 11. 4 11. 3 11. 3 1O. 1 8. 0 7. 0 9. O 8. 0 6. O 6. O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -3O. 3 56 -37. 3 35 -52. 2 7 -53. 2 6 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -48- Appendix D N02 County Air Quality Projections ------- -49- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 001 031 035 041 REGION ALBUQUERQUE DENVER SALT LAKE CITY COLO .SPRINGS YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 CONC .02 .05 .04 .03 BKGD .000 .OOO .000 .OOO CONC .02 .05 .04 .02 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 0 .02 0 .02 O .02 0 0 0 O 1 . 0 0 .05 .04 .02 0 0 O -0. 0 0 .05 .04 .02 0 0 0 -9. 0 0 .05 .04 .02 O 0 0 -7. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN It 1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .05 .OOO 1978 .04 .000 1978 .03 .000 1984 1985 1990 1995 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 .06 1 .06 1 .05 O .05 0 .04 0 .04 .02 0 .03 0. 1 1 0 0 4. 1 1 .04 .02 0 0 -5. 0 O .04 .03 0 O -o. 0 O LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN tt 1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED BASE REGION YEAR CONC BKGD OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 .02 .000 O31 DENVER 1978 .OS .OOO 035 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .04 .000 041 COLO SPRINGS 1978 .03 .OOO AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 0 .02 O .02 0 .02 0 .06 1 .06 1 .05 O .06 1 .04 0 .04 0 .04 0 .04 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 0 4. 1 1 1 . 0 0 6. 1 1 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -50- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 001 031 035 041 REGION ALBUQUERQUE DENVER SALT LAKE CITY COLO SPRINGS YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 CONC .02 .05 .04 .03 BKGD .OOO .000 .OOO .OOO CONC .02 .05 .04 .02 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB O .02 0 .02 O .02 0 .05 .04 .02 0 O 0 -1 . 0 0 .05 .04 .02 O 0 0 -0. 0 0 .05 .04 .02 O O 0 -9. O 0 .05 .04 .02 0 O 0 -7. O 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN H2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC .02 .05 .04 .03 BKGD .000 .000 .000 .000 CONC .02 .06 .04 .02 NUMB 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 CONC .02 .06 .04 .03 NUMB 0 1 0 O 4. 1 1 CONC .02 .05 .04 .02 NUMB O O 0 O -5. 0 0 CONC .02 .05 .04 .03 NUMB 0 0 0 O -2. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN tfi GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .05 .OOO 1978 .04 .OOO 1978 .03 .000 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 .06 1 .06 1 .05 0 .06 1 .04 O .04 O .04 O .04 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 4. 1 1 5. 1 1 - 1 . O O 6. 1 1 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -51- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .05 .000 1978 .04 .OOO 1978 .03 .OOO 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 O .02 0 .02 0 .02 O .05 0 .05 0 .05 0 .05 0 .04 O .04 O .04 O .04 0 .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1 . 0 0 -0. 0 0 -9. 0 0 -7. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .OOO 1978 .05 .000 1978 .04 .000 1978 .03 .OOO 1984 1985 199O 1995 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 0 .02 O .02 0 .02 0 .06 1 .06 1 .05 0 .05 0 .04 O .04 .02 0 .03 0. 1 1 O O 4. 1 1 .04 .02 0 O -5. 0 0 .04 .03 O 0 -0. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN H3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE O31 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .OOO 1978 .05 .000 1978 .04 .OOO 1978 .03 .OOO 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 O .02 O .02 0 .02 O .06 1 .06 1 .05 0 .06 1 .04 0 .04 O .04 O .04 O .03 0 .03 0 .03 O .03 O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 4. 1 1 5. 1 1 1 . 0 0 6. 1 1 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -52- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN 04 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .05 .OOO 1978 .04 .OOO 1978 .03 .000 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 .02 O .05 O .05 O .05 0 .05 O .04 .02 0 0 1 . O 0 .04 .02 0 0 -0. 0 0 .04 .02 0 0 -9. 0 0 .04 .02 0 0 -7. O 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .OOO 1978 .05 .000 1978 .04 .000 1978 .03 .000 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 0 .02 O .02 O .02 O .06 1 .06 1 .05 0 .05 0 .04 0 .04 0 .04 O .04 0 .02 O .03 0 .02 0 .03 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 0. 1 1 4 . 1 1 -5. 0 O -2. 0 O LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .OS .OOO 1978 .04 .OOO 1978 .03 .OOO 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 O .02 0 .02 O .02 0 .06 1 .06 1 .05 0 .06 1 .04 O .04 O .04 0 .04 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 4. 1 1 5. 1 1 -1 . 0 0 6. 1 1 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE ------- -53- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .OS PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .05 .OOO 1978 .04 .OOO 1978 .03 .OOO AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 0 .02 0 .02 O .02 0 .05 0 .05 0 .05 0 .05 0 .04 .02 O 0 1 . 0 0 .04 .02 O O -o. 0 0 .04 .02 0 0 Q 0 0 .04 .02 0 O -7. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE 'E STD lANCES CONC .02 .05 .04 .03 BKGD .OOO .000 .000 .000 CONC .02 .06 .04 .02 NUMB 0 1 0 0 0. 1 1 CONC .02 .06 .04 .03 0 .02 0 .02 0 1 .05 0 .05 0 O .04 0 .04 0 O .02 O .03 O 4. 1 1 -5. 0 0 -2. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER O35 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .05 .000 1978 .04 .OOO 1978 .03 .OOO 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 0 .02 0 .02 O .02 0 .06 1 .06 1 .05 0 .06 1 .04 0 .04 0 .04 0 .04 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 4. 1 1 5. 1 1 - 1 . 0 0 6. 1 1 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -54- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN /C6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS / TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES YEAR 1978 1978 1978 1978 NGE E STD ANCES CONC .02 .05 .04 .03 BKGD .OOO .000 .000 .OOO CONC .02 .05 .04 .02 NUMB 0 0 0 O -1 . 0 0 CONC .02 .05 .04 .02 NUMB 0 0 O O -0. 0 0 CONC .02 .05 .04 .02 NUMB 0 0 O O -9. 0 O CONC .02 .05 .04 .02 NUMB 0 0 0 O -7. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION O01 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .05 .000 1978 .04 .000 1978 .03 .OOO 1984 1985 1990 1995 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 O .02 O .02 O .02 0 .06 1 .06 1 .05 O .05 0 .04 0 .04 .02 0 .03 0. 1 1 0 O 4 . 1 1 .04 .02 O 0 -5. O 0 .04 .03 0 O -2. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE O31 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .05 .000 1978 .04 .000 1978 .03 .OOO 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 O .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 .06 1 .06 1 .05 O .06 1 .04 0 .04 0 .04 O .04 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 0 .03 0 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 4. 5. 1 1 1 . 0 0 6. 1 1 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE ------- -55- LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN HI GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION 001 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY O41 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .000 1978 .05 .OOO 1978 .04 .000 1978 .03 .OOO AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 1984 1985 199O 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 .02 0 .05 .04 .02 0 0 0 1 . 0 0 .05 .04 .02 O 0 0 -O. 0 0 .05 .04 .02 0 0 0 -9. 0 0 .05 .04 .02 0 O 0 -7. 0 O LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN HI GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION YEAR 001 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 O31 DENVER 1978 035 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 041 COLO SPRINGS 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES CONC .02 .05 .04 .03 BKGD .OOO .OOO .000 .OOO CONC .02 .06 .04 .02 NUMB O 1 0 0 0 1 1 CONC .02 .06 .04 .03 O .02 0 .02 0 1 .05 O .05 0 0 .04 0 .04 0 0 .02 0 .03 0 4. -5. O 0 -2. 0 0 LINEAR ROLLBACK STRATEGY: SCEN #7 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI N02 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .05 PPM) PROJECTED REGION OO1 ALBUQUERQUE 031 DENVER 035 SALT LAKE CITY 041 COLO SPRINGS BASE YEAR CONC BKGD 1978 .02 .OOO 1978 .05 .000 1978 .04 .OOO 1978 .03 .000 1984 1985 1990 1995 CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB .02 O .02 0 ,O2 0 .02 O .06 1 .06 1 .05 O .06 1 .04 0 .04 O .04 O .04 O .03 0 .03 0 .03 O .03 O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 5. 1 1 -1 . 0 O 6. 1 1 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. .THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -56- Appendix E Ozone Regional Air Quality Projections With Inspection and Maintenance Programs ------- -57- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONG NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .12 O .12 0 .11 O .11 O 1978 .09 9.5O .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 O 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 O .11 O .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 14 -19. . 14 -21 . 1 2 . 13 1 -26. 1 1 . 13 1 -25. 1 1 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN *1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER O38 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 1978 .09 9.50 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 O .11 O .11 0 .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 14 18. 2 3 . 14 -20. 1 2 . 13 1 -25. 1 1 . 14 -23. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER O38 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .12 0 .12 O .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 O .07 0 .07 0 .07 O 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 O .11 0 .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.SO AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 14 17. 2 4 14 -19. 1 2 13 1 14 -22. 1 2 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -58- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS 036 DENVER 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .16 9.50 .12 0 .12 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 22O SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.5O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 14 . 14 19. 1 2 o 0 2 -21 . 1 2 . 1 1 . 11 . 13 0 0 1 -26. 1 1 . 1 1 . 1 1 . 13 O 0 1 -25. 1 1 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 036 DENVER 1978 038 COLO SPRINGS 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 16 .09 . 13 . 18 9 9 9 9 50 .50 50 .50 . 13 .07 . 11 . 14 1 0 0 2 -18. 2 3 . 12 .07 . 11 . 14 0 0 0 2 -20. 1 2 . 1 1 .07 . 11 . 13 O 0 0 1 -25. 1 1 . 1 1 .07 . 1 1 . 14 0 0 0 2 -23. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN H2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION YEAR CONC O36 DENVER 1978 038 COLO SPRINGS 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 16 .09 . 13 . 18 RATIO 9. 9 9 9 . 5O 50 .50 .50 CONC . 13 .08 . 11 . 14 NUMB CONC 1 0 0 3 -17. 2 4 . 12 .07 . 1 1 . 14 NUMB CONC O 0 0 2 -19. 1 2 . 12 .07 . 11 . 13 NUMB CONC O O 0 1 -23. 1 1 . 12 .07 . 11 . 14 NUMB 0 O 0 2 -22. 1 2 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -59- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS 036 DENVER 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .07 O .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .16 9.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 O .11 O 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 0 .11 0 .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 18 9.50 . 14 19. 1 2 . 14 -21 . 1 2 . 13 1 -26. 1 1 . 13 1 -25. 1 1 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 036 DENVER 1978 038 COLO SPRINGS 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 16 .09 . 13 . 18 9 9 9 9 .50 .50 .50 . 5O . 13 .07 . 1 1 . 14 1 0 0 2 -18. 2 3 . 12 .07 . 1 1 . 14 0 0 0 2 -20. 1 2 . 1 1 .07 . 11 . 13 0 0 0 1 -25. 1 1 . 12 .07 . 11 . 14 0 0 0 2 -23. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN 03 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .12 O .12 0 .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 0 .11 O .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 14 17. 2 4 14 -19. 1 2 14 -23. 1 2 14 -21 . 1 2 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -60- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: 10 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION O36 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONG NUMB CONG NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .12 O .12 O .11 0 .11 0 1978 .09 9.50 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 O .11 O .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 18 9.50 14 . 14 . 13 1 19. 1 2 -21 . 1 2 . 13 1 -25. 1 1 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN /C4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .12 0 .11 O .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 0 .11 O .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 14 . 14 . 13 1 18. 2 3 -20. 1 2 -25. 1 1 . 14 -23. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN 04 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 .12 O 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .07 O .07 O .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 0 .11 O .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 14 14 14 14 17. 2 4 -19. 1 2 -23. 1 2 -21 . 1 2 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -61- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION YEAR CONC 038 COLO SPRINGS 1978 O36 DENVER 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES .09 . 16 . 13 . 18 RATIO 9 9 9 9 .50 .50 .50 .50 CONC .07 . 12 . 1 1 . 14 NUMB CONC 0 0 0 2 -19. 1 2 .07 . 12 . 11 . 14 NUMB CONC 0 O 0 2 -21 . 1 2 .07 . 1 1 . 10 . 13 NUMB CONC 0 0 0 1 -26. 1 1 .07 . 11 . 1 1 . 13 NUMB 0 O 0 1 -26. 1 1 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS - 12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS O36 DENVER 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .12 O .11 0 .11 O 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 O .11 0 .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 14 18. 2 3 . 14 -20. 1 2 . 13 1 -25. 1 1 14 -24. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN f/5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE 220 SALT LAKE CITY YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .12 0 .11 0 .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 O .07 O .07 0 .07 O 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 0 .11 0 .11 0 1978 .18 9.50 .14 3 .14 2 .13 1 .14 2 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -17. 2 4 -19. 1 2 -24. 1 1 -22. 1 2 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -62- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS 036 DENVER 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .16 9.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 O .11 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 0 .11 O .11 0 22O SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 14 19. 1 2 . 14 -21 . 1 2 . 1 1 . 13 1 -26. 1 1 . 13 1 -25. 1 1 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB O36 DENVER 1978 038 COLO SPRINGS 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 16 .09 . 13 . 18 9 9 9 9 .50 .50 .50 . 5O . 13 .07 . 1 1 . 14 1 0 0 2 -18. 2 3 . 12 .07 . 1 1 . 14 0 0 0 2 -20. 1 2 . 1 1 .07 . 11 . 13 0 0 0 1 -25. 1 1 . 12 .07 . 1 1 . 14 0 O 0 2 -23. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION O36 DENVER O38 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE 22O SALT LAKE CITY YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.SO .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 .12 0 1978 .09 9.5O .08 O .07 0 .07 O .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 0 .11 0 .11 0 1978 .189.SO .14 3 .14 2 .14 2 .14 2 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 17. 2 4 -19. 1 2 -23. 1 2 -21 . 1 2 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -63- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN HI GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 1978 .09 9.50 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 O .11 0 .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.5O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 14 . 14 . 13 1 19. 1 2 -21 . 1 2 . 13 1 -25. 1 1 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN in GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS 036 DENVER 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .07 O .07 O .07 0 .07 0 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .12 0 .11 0 .12 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 0 .11 0 .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 14 . 14 13 18. 2 3 -20. 1 2 1 -25. 1 1 . 14 -23. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN HI GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .11 0 .11 0 .11 0 .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 14 . 14 14 14 -17. 2 4 -19. -23. 1 2 -21 . 1 2 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE ------- -64- Appendix F Ozone Regional Air Quality Projections Without Inspection and Maintetnance Programs ------- -65- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 036 DENVER 1978 038 COLO SPRINGS 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 22O SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES .16 .09 .13 . 18 9 9 9 9 .50 .50 .50 .50 . 13 .08 . 12 . 15 1 O 0 3 -15. 2 4 . 13 .08 . 12 . 15 1 O 0 3 -16. 2 4 . 12 .07 . 11 . 14 0 0 0 2 -23. 1 2 . 12 .07 . 11 . 14 0 0 0 2 -22. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN H\ GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.5O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 15 . 15 . 14 14. 2 5 -15. 2 4 -21 . 1 2 . 14 -21 . 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #1 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE 22O SALT LAKE CITY YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 O .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .12 O .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 1978 .18 9.50 .15 4 .15 4 .14 2 .15 3 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 13. 2 5 -14. 2 5 -19. 1 2 -18. 1 3 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -66- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS 036 DENVER 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 O .07 0 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 1978 .13 9.5O .12 0 .12 0 .11 0 .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 .15 3 .15 3 .14 2 .14 2 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE -15. -16. -23. -22. NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD 2211 TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 4422 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN H2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 O .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 22O SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 15 . 15 14 14. 2 5 -15. 2 4 -21 . 1 2 . 14 -21 . 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN t>2 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION O36 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 0 .07 O 1978 .13 9.5O .12 0 .12 O .11 O .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.5O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 15 . 15 . 14 15 13. 2 5 -14. 2 5 -19. 1 2 -18. 1 3 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -67- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 038 COLO SPRINGS 1978 036 DENVER 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES .09 . 16 . 13 . 18 9 9 9 9 .50 .50 .50 .50 .08 . 13 . 12 . 15 0 1 O 3 -15. 2 4 .08 . 13 . 12 . 15 0 1 0 3 -16. 2 4 .07 . 12 . 1.1 . 14 0 0 O 2 -22. 1 2 .07 . 12 . 11 . 14 0 O 0 2 -22. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .169.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 O .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 O .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .12 0 .12 O .11 0 .11 O 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 15 . 15 . 14 14. 2 5 -15. 2 4 -2O. 1 2 . 14 -20. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #3 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION O36 DENVER O38 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .13 1 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.SO .12 0 .12 O .11 O .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.5O .15 4 .15 4 .14 3 .15 3 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE -13. -14. -19. -18. NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD 2212 TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 5534 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -68- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.SO .13 1 .13 1 .12 O .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 0 .07 O 1978 .139.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.5O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 15 . 15 . 14 15. 2 4 -16. 2 4 -22. 1 2 . 14 -22. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN /C4 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PR'OdECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 O .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 O .07 0 .07 O 1978 .13 9.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 O .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.SO AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 15 . 15 . 14 14. 2 5 -15. 2 4 -20. 1 2 14 -2O. E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN If A GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 O .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 22O SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 .15 4 .15 4 .14 3 .15 3 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE -13. -14. -19. -18. NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD 2211 TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 5533 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE ------- -69- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN *5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS 036 DENVER 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 1978 .13 9.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 15 . 15 . 14 15. 2 4 -17. 2 4 -23. 1 2 . 14 -23. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 O .07 0 036 DENVER 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 16 . 13 . 18 9 9 9 .50 .50 .SO . 13 . 12 . 15 1 0 4 -14. 2 5 . 13 . 12 . 15 1 0 3 -15. 2 4 . 12 . 1 1 . 14 0 0 2 -21 . 1 2 . 12 . 1 1 . 14 O 0 2 -21 . 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #5 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 036 DENVER O38 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE 220 SALT LAKE CITY YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .12 O 1978 .09 9.5O .08 0 .08 O .07 O .07 O 1978 .13 9.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 1978 .18 9.50 .15 4 .15 4 .14 2 .15 3 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES -13. 2 5 -14. 2 5 -19. 1 2 -19. 1 3 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -70- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .08 O .08 0 .07 O .07 O 036 DENVER 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 22O SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 16 . 13 . 18 9 9 9 .50 .50 .50 . 13 .12 . 15 1 0 3 -15. 2 4 . 13 . 12 . 15 1 0 3 -16. 2 4 . 12 . 11 . 14 0 0 2 -22. 1 2 . 12 . 1 1 . 14 0 0 2 -22. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #6 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 036 DENVER 1978 038 COLO SPRINGS 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 16 .09 . 13 . 18 9 9 9 9 .50 .50 ,50 SO . 13 .08 . 12 . 15 1 0 0 4 -14. 2 5 . 13 .08 . 12 . 15 1 0 0 3 -15. 2 4 . 12 .07 . 1 1 . 14 0 0 0 2 -20. 1 2 . 12 .07 . 1 1 . 14 0 0 0 2 -20. 1 2 IE K M A STRATEGY: SCEN 06 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 199O 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE 22O SALT LAKE CITY YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .13 1 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.SO .12 O .12 0 .11 O .11 0 1978 .18 9.SO .15 4 .15 4 .14 3 .15 3 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 13. 2 5 -14. 2 5 -19. 1 3 -18. 2 4 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS, COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- -71- E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN #7 GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: LO 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .139.50 .12 0 .12 0 .11 O .11 0 22O SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.5O AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES . 15 . 15 . 14 -15. 2 4 -16. 2 4 -22. 1 2 . 14 -22. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN H^ GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: MD 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 038 COLO SPRINGS YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .09 9.50 .08 O .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 .13 1 .12 0 .12 0 . 12 . 15 036 DENVER 1978 152 ALBUQUERQUE 1978 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STO TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES .16 9.50 .13 9.50 . 18 9.50 . 13 . 12 . 15 1 0 4 -14. 2 5 0 3 -15. 2 4 .11 0 . 14 2 -20. 1 2 .11 0 . 14 2 -20. 1 2 E K M A STRATEGY: SCEN HI GROWTH RATE SCENARIO: HI 03 AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATION ( PPM) AND VIOLATIONS (STANDARD IS .12 PPM) PROJECTED BASE 1984 1985 1990 1995 REGION 036 DENVER 038 COLO SPRINGS 152 ALBUQUERQUE YEAR CONC RATIO CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB CONC NUMB 1978 .16 9.50 .13 1 .13 1 .12 O .12 0 1978 .09 9.50 .08 0 .08 0 .07 0 .07 0 1978 .13 9.50 .12 O .12 0 .11 0 .11 0 220 SALT LAKE CITY 1978 .18 9.50 AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE NO. OF REGIONS ABOVE STD TOTAL NO. OF EXCEEDANCES 15 . 15 . 14 . 15 13. 2 5 -14. 2 5 -19. 1 3 -18. 1 3 *** NOTE: AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS ARE ROUNDED FOR DISPLAY FOLLOWING EPA GUIDELINES. THUS. COMPARISONS WITH STANDARDS AND PERCENT CHANGES ARE BASED ON ONE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FIGURE. ------- |