EPA-AA-TEB-EF-8 2-4
Ambient Versus Predicted Carbon Monoxide Levels
                       by
                  Mark Wolcott
                 September 1982
           Test  and Evaluation Branch
      Emission Control Technology Division
            Office  of  Mobile Sources
      U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency

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             Ambient Versus Predicted Carbon Monoxide Levels

Introduction

MOBILE2  is  a  computer   program  that  calculates  emission  factors  for
hydrocarbons, carbon  monoxide,  and  oxides  of  nitrogen for  highway  motor
vehicles.  The  program uses the calculation  procedures described in  the
Compilation of Air  Pollution Emission  Factors;  Highway Mobile Sources(l),
to calculate emission  factors for eight individual  vehicle  types in  three
regions  of the  country.   These emission estimates  depend  upon  various
conditions,  such as ambient temperature  and  vehicle usage.   MOBILE2  can
estimate emission factors for any calendar year between 1970 and 2020.

Various  groups  have  tried  to  characterize the  accuracy  of  the  MOBILE2
emission factors  model by comparing its  emissions  results  to air quality
measurements  during  the  1970-80 period.  This  report  shows  that  such
comparisons  are  sensitive to the input  assumptions used to generate  the
emissions  results.*  It  also  compares the  reduction  in carbon monoxide
(CO)  tailpipe.emissions  predicted   by  the MOBILE2 model to  the reduction
in ambient levels as  they were  measured by  the nation's network of carbon
monoxide monitors.  The comparison  is  made  only for ambient CO since that
pollutant, more  so  than the others,  is the  result of emissions from motor
vehicles.

The ambient  CO  concentrations  used  in this investigation were taken from
SAROAD.    SAROAD  is   the  acronym   for   the   Storage   and   Retrieval  of
Aerometric   Data  system  maintained   by  EPA.    This   system  contains
information  collected by federal,  state, and  local agencies  on various
pollutants and hazardous chemicals,  including carbon monoxide.

Discussion

Figure 1 shows  the  second highest eight hour  moving average CO level from
SAROAD and demonstrates how significant  the  improvement in U.S.  cities'
air quality  has been  during  the  decade  of  the 70s.   The  second highest
eight hour moving average CO level was used  because  that  is the present
form  of  the  National  Ambient  Air  Quality  Standard  (NAAQS)  for  CO.   On
each  of  the  figures  in this  report  the  vertical  axis   represents  the
summation  of all  the CO  changes  from  the previous  and  current  years.
Since very few  monitors  measure data  continuously  from  1970 to 1980,  the
change is  expressed as  the  difference in  the  base 10 logarithms  of  the
recorded concentrations  from one year  to  the  previous  year.   For example,
the 1970-1971  level is calculated  from the logarithm  of the 1971 second
highest  eight  hour moving  average  CO   level  measured  by  each  monitor
subtracted  from the  logarithm  of   the  corresponding 1970  monitor  level.
These changes .are then accumulated  over all years.  The logarithms are
*While the assumptions used  in  this  report  may be appropriate for certain
local  projections,  national comparisons  of alternate  control strategies
have,  heretofore,  required  the use  of  standard  Federal  Test  Procedure
conditions.

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used since  they  are symmetric, while  calculations based  upon percentage
differences  are  not  symmetric.   For  example,   if  during  a  three-year
period ambient concentrations are recorded as  20  ppm,  10  ppm,  and 20 ppm,
the net  difference  based on  logarithms  is zero.   Based  on  a percentage
calculation,  the   cumulative  difference  would   be   plus   50  percent
(10-20/20=-50%;  20-10/10=+!00%; -50%+100%=+50%).

Figure  1 also  shows the  reduction  in  fleet  emissions   calculated  from
MOBILE2  under  the  standard  conditions associated with  the  Federal  Test
Procedure  (FTP).   These reductions are  calculated by  the  same procedure
that was used to ascertain the  changes in  ambient carbon  monoxide so that
a  comparison between  the two  would  be consistent.   Such  a comparison
suggests that,  over the past  decade,  tailpipe emissions  as  predicted by
MOBILE2 have declined more than ambient concentration levels.

There  are,  however,  several  aspects  of  the underlying MOBILE2 model and
SAROAD data  used  to construct Figure  1  that  should be noted  to properly
interpret this figure.

    1.    The driving  patterns associated with the elevated  CO concentra-
         tions represented  in Figure  1  may not  be  reflected  by  the FTP
         cycle.

    2.    Most violations  of  the CO National Ambient Air  Quality Standard
         occur during the  months  of November, December,  and  January when
         temperatures are  substantially  colder than  the  68°F - 86°F  range
         associated with the  standard  Federal  Test Procedure*.

    3.    The  rush   hour  traffic  often  associated with  high  ambient  CO
         concentrations  may  consist mostly  of passenger  vehicles  rather
         than the standard mix of vehicles assumed by MOBILE2.

    4.    The number  of  monitors fluctuates  over  time.   For instance, only
         43  monitors  measured CO in  both  1970 and  1971.   This contrasts
         with 178 monitors in 1973  and 1974  and  with 247  monitors in 1979
         and 1980.   (See Table 1.)

    5.    MOBILE2 does not  account  for  growth in  the number  of vehicle
         miles traveled.   It strictly calculates the  grams  of pollutant
         emitted per mile traveled.
*Seventy-five degrees  Fahrenheit  has been used  throughout  this report to
characterize the FTP temperature range.

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The effects of each of these factors are addressed  in  the  remaining parts
of  this  paper.   It  is  important  to realize  that  the  discussion  is
presented in  terms  of a  sensitivity analysis.   The operative  factors  at
any individual monitoring site may  be  different.   The purpose  is  really
to  point  out  that  a  straight FTP  MOBILE2-ambient CO  comparison  may  be
insufficient.

    1.   Driving Cycle

         The  Federal  Test  Procedure was  developed in  1970  to model  a
         typical  urban driving  cycle  (2,3).   As  defined,  the  driving
         cycle  is composed  of two  parts:  the  start-up  phase and  the
         stabilized phase.  The start up phase can  either  be  a cold start
         or a warmed-up  start.   The morning rush  hour  traffic  on major
         roads  and  in  the  central  business  district is  probably  best
         characterized by  the ' stabilized  phase  since  vehicles  will  have
         warmed up by the  time they  reach  these heavy  traffic areas.   The
         evening  rush  hour may be  best  characterized  either  by  the  cold
         start plus stabilized phases  (if  most  traffic consists of  people
         returning to their homes after working a  full eight  hour day)  or
         by   the  hot  start  plus  stabilized  phases  (if  most  traffic
         consists of  people returning  from short  trips  into  the  city).
         Figure 2 displays  the reduction in tailpipe  emissions associated
         with each of four driving patterns.

         Of the  four  patterns, the  stabilized  phase  of the  Federal Test
         Procedure may  best characterize  the driving  patterns associated
         with  elevated  CO  concentrations.   By  the  time  the  morning
         suburban traffic  reaches  the  central  business district, most  of
         the  vehicles  will have  warmed  up.  And  in  the  afternoon,  when
         vehicles that  have  sat  in  parking  lots  all  day get  started and
         reach  congested   roadways  they,   too,   will  have   warmed  up.
         Afternoon cold start  emissions away from  the  ambient monitor may
         be important  from  the  standpoint  that  such  emissions tend  to
         increase  background CO  levels.   See  references  4  and 5  for  a
         discussion of this effect.

    2.   Ambient  Temperature

         Another  concern  that  one might have with  the  comparison depicted
         in  Figure  1  is  that most elevated  CO  levels   of   the  carbon
         monoxide  standard are  recorded   during  November,  December,  and
         January.  To assess the  potential effect  of  cold  temperature,  it
         was  first  necessary  to  determine  the  temperatures  that actually
         prevailed  during  periods   of  high ambient  CO  concentrations.
         Table 2  lists  the 30-year  average  temperatures  during November,
         December,  and  January  at  all  of  the  Standard  Metropolitan
         Statistical Areas  (SMSAs)  in  which there were CO  monitors.   The
         overall  average  temperature in low-altitude, 49-state areas was
         39.7°F(6),  a value  substantially  below the standard  Federal Test
         Procedure's range  of  68°F - 86°F.  Figure 3  shows that slightly
         less  improvement in  stabilized   fleet CO  emissions  occurred  at

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         colder  temperatures  than  occurred  in  this  FTP  temperature  range.*

    3.    Vehicle Type

         Another concern  that  might  be  expressed  in  the  comparison  of
         MOBILE2 predictions  to  "real  world"  ambient   carbon monoxide
         levels  is  that the  rush  hour traffic often associated with  high
         concentration levels may  consist  mostly  of  passenger vehicles.
         The  default  mix  of  vehicle  types contained  in  MOBILE2  may  not
         really  be  representative  of  rush  hour  traffic.   Figure  4  shows
         the  improvement  in  CO emissions  averaged (1)  over  all  vehicle
         types  and  (2)  over  only  personal passenger  vehicles.  The  two
         curves  in  the figure are  both for stabilized operation at  40°F.
         As Figure  4  shows,  personal  passenger vehicles  are estimated  to
         have experienced  a  somewhat greater  reduction in  tailpipe  CO
         emissions  than has the  combined  vehicle fleet.

         Notice, too,  that  by  1980  the   lower  curve  in  Figure  4  is
         essentially at  the  same  position in  that  figure  (-0.22) as  is
         the  lower  curve  in  Figure  1.  That  is,  the net  effect  of  the
         adjustments considered heretofore  is  zero.  While  the  net  effect
         of adjusting  for specific local conditions may  not be  zero,  this
         analysis suggests that  standard  FTP  conditions  may,   indeed,  be
         appropriate for  national analyses.

    4.    Screening  of  Monitor Data

         Monitoring data,  like  all other data,  is  subject  to a  variety of
         errors.  Due to  limitations  on  the resources available for  this
         project, it  was  not possible to  screen  extensively  all of  the
         monitoring data  that went  into  this  report.  The  total data set
         consists  of   over   ten  million,   eight-hour   moving   average
         observations.  Since  the level  of  the  CO NAAQS  is  not to  be
         exceeded more than  once  per  year, the most important  eight-hour
         average each  year is  the second  highest.  Thus,  the  10  million
         observations   from  the  original  set  were  first   reduced  to
         approximately 1000 second high values.  Of  these,  four values of
         greater than  70  mg/m-' were  then  deleted on  the basis that  the
         highest confirmed CO  value  since  1977  has been  38.5  mg/m^.
         While   a few  values  higher  than  38.5  mg/m^ were  recorded  prior
         to  1977,   those  values  greater   than   70   mg/m^   definitely
         appeared  to  be  anomalous.   The  resulting  data  set   is  labeled
         "edited"  in   Figure  5.   From  this   edited  set  a  subset  was
         constructed  that  excludes  all observations  for which there  was
         more  than a 10  ing/m^   change   during   two  consecutive   years.
         That data  set is labeled "edited and screened" in Figure  5.
*Since MOBILE2 rounds input temperatures  to  whole  degrees  Fahrenheit,  the
cold temperature curve of Figure 3 has been labeled "40°F".

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     Three possibilities are offered  to  explain changes greater  than
     10 mg/m3  during two  consecutive years.   The  first  possibility
     is data  error.   Examining  the  time   series  for  suspect  data
     reveals that, in many instances, a large change in  one  direction
     in one year is offset by an equally large  change  in the opposite
     direction in the following year.  This  is  the predominate  reason
     why  the  two  curves  in  Figure  5  are  so  similar.   The  second
     explanation  offered  is that  traffic  patterns may  have  shifted
     from  one  year  to  the  next.    Such  a  shift  may  have  occurred
     because of  intentional  traffic control measures  by  the  local
     government.   It  may  also  have  been  the  result  of  independent
     decisions rendered by  the  area's drivers.   For example,  drivers
     may want to avoid an intersection that  has become more  congested
     over time or  an  area   undergoing road  or  building  construction.
     The   third   possibility  offered  to   explain    large   one—year
     differences  in  ambient  concentration  levels  is  a   change  in
     monitor  calibration   procedures.    If  any  of  these   three
     possibilities  occurred,  they  would  confound the comparison  of
     reduction in ambient  concentrations  to reduction  in emissions.

5.    Monitor Selection

     Since  the  lower two  curves  in Figure  6  are similar,  one  can
     infer  that  monitors  within  SMSAs  have  recorded  about  the  same
     reduction  in  ambient  CO  concentrations   as  have  the  monitors
     within non-SMSA  areas.  However,  if  the  monitors within SMSAs
     that  measure  the  highest  second  high   CO  concentrations  are
     compared without regard to whether the  monitors are the same for
     each  comparison,  then  ambient  CO concentration  levels may  not
     have  improved  quite  as much  as would  first  appear.    The curve
     labeled "mixed SMSA monitors"  shows the reduction recorded under
     this circumstance.

     As mentioned  previously,  one  explanation  for  the  difference  in
     estimated reductions is  that  traffic  may  have shifted  away  from
     one  monitor   toward  another.   Ideally,  a  set  of  identical
     monitors each  surrounded  by a  constant volume  of  traffic could
     be found.   Such  a  set  would allow one  to  isolate  the  effect  of
     reduced emissions  on  ambient CO  concentrations.   Unfortunately,
     too few monitors come close to satisfying  this  criterion.

6.    Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled

     Traffic in  the  vicinity  of the  ambient monitors  may  or may  not
     have   appreciably    shifted.     However,    it    has   increased.
     Nationwide,  personal passenger vehicle  miles traveled  (VMT)  grew
     at an overall  rate  of  2.3  percent  per  year  during  the  past
     decade. (7)    Figure  7  shows   the  increase  in  VMT  from 1970  to
     1980.   Traffic  designated  as  "urban"  by the  Federal  Highway
     Administration  (FHwA)   grew  at  a   greater   rate  than  traffic
     designated  as "rural".

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         Growth  in  vehicle  miles  traveled  is  an  important  factor  to
         consider in  any  comparison  of  MOBILE2  and  the  "real  world",
         since  the  emission  trends  predicted  by  MOBILE2  are  expressed
         simply  in  grams   of  CO  emitted  per  mile  traveled.    MOBILE2
         itself,  without  VMT  growth,  overpredicts  the  reduction  in
         ambient carbon monoxide  levels.

         According  to  the  FHwA  (8),  there  are two  components  of  urban
         growth.  One component  is geographic area,  the  other is  traffic
         density.   During  the   past  decade  those  locations designated
         urban  have  come  to  encompass  larger  geographic   areas.    In
         addition, other areas once designated  rural,  are now designated
         urban.  Meanwhile,  traffic  density  within  the  core   urban  areas
         has also increased.

         It is  important to consider both  components when  examining  their
         effect  on  ambient  air  quality.   On  one hand,  it can  be  argued
         that  expansion  of  an urban area  may increase  background  carbon
         monoxide  levels.   That,  in  turn,   may   increase   peak  carbon
         monoxide concentrations  during CO  episodes.(5)  Accepting  this
         argument would  lead one to  adjust  MOBILE2  emission factors  by
         the full 2.3 percent annual  growth rate.   On the other hand,  it
         could  also  be  argued that  only  an  increase  in  traffic  density
         will   tend  to  increase  ambient  CO   levels.    Accepting   this
         alternate argument would lead one  to adjust  the emission factors
         by less than 2.3 percent.
Summary
Figure  8  shows  the  effect  of  combining  the assumptions  made  in  the
previous  sections.    The   second  highest  eight-hour  moving  average  CO
levels measured by  SAROAD  monitors in  the  nation's  low altitude,  49-state
regions  were  edited for potentially bad  data and  screened  for  outliers.
The resulting data set is  plotted in Figure 8.  Also  plotted are  the data
from the second highest averages within SMSAs.  These  two  curves  are then
compared with the predictions from MOBILE2, adjusted  for nationwide urban
growth shown  in  Figure 7, and  for  personal  passenger  vehicles  operating
in a stabilized mode at wintertime temperatures in  the  same  low altitude,
49-state  regions.   As  can  be  seen  from   the  figure,   the  cumulative
reduction  in ambient  CO  predicted  from MOB1LE2  emission  factors  and
growth in  urban  VMT  is  greater than  that recorded  by  the   "mixed"  SMSA
monitors but less than that recorded  by the "matched"  monitors.

It is also  possible  to compare  the  two ambient concentration curves with
two additional adjusted  MOBILE2 curves.    These latter  two  curves  adjust
the MOBILE2 emission  factors  by the  growth  rate  assumptions  currently
used by  EPA in  air  quality analyses performed in  support of  regulations
and in responses  to congressional requests for information.   The  lower of
the two curves assumes that personal passenger VMT  increases  at a rate of
0.4 percent, while  the higher  curve  assumes  that VMT increases  at  a  2.4
percent  per  year  rate.   While  the  2.4 percent  per  year rate is  close to
the historical  average,   the  0.4 percent  rate reflects   the  possibility

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that only  traffic in  the  immediate vicinity  of  the monitors  influences
the measurements  recorded  by  them.   Since many  monitors  are located  in
central  business  districts and  since many  of the  traffic corridors  in
those  districts  operate  near  capacity,  traffic  may  not  be  able  to
increase there at the  same rate  it  can  in the rest of  the  city.   Indeed,
the most  recent  EPA responses to  congressional  requests for analysis  of
the  low  altitude  CO  problem  have   indicated   a   preference   for  the
assumption that personal passenger  VMT  will  grow at a  0.4  percent annual
rate.   Adjusting  for  this fairly  modest growth rate,  it appears  that
MOBILE2 characterizes  the ambient monitoring  data fairly well.

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                          References

Compilation  of  Air  Pollutant  Emission  Factors;    Highway  Mobile
Sources, EPA-460/3-81-005, U.S^Environmental  Protection  Agency, Ann
Arbor, Michigan  48105, 1981.

Kruse,  R.  and  Huls,  Development  of  the  Federal  Urban  Driving
Schedule,  U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency,  SAE Paper  730553,
May, 1973.

Huls,  Evolution of  Federal Light  Duty Mass  Emission  Regulations,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,SAE Paper 730554, May, 1973.

Delman,  A. ,  CO  Hot  Spot  Analysis  -  The  Uses  and Limitations  of
Emission   Inventories,   Department   of   Environmental   Programs,
Metropolitan  Washington Council  of Governments,  Washington,  D.C. ,
April 1982.

Wolcott, M. , Carbon  Monoxide Episodes,  U.S.  Environmental Protection
Agency, EPA-AA-TEB-EF-82-3, November, 1981.

Ruffner,   J.,  Frank  Bair,  editors,  The  Weather  Almanac,  Second
Edition, Avon Book, 1979.

Highway  Statistics,  Federal Highway Administration,  U.S. Department
of Transportation, 1970-1980.

Personal    communication   with    J.    Thwing,    Federal   Highway
Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, February 12,  1982.

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    10
    12
    14
    16
    18
    20
    22
    24
                        Figure 8
       llzed  Driving.  40 F.  Low  Rltltude.  49-Stotes
o
£
3 _
in
o ~
>
-i -
_>
o _
  3
  6 '
  D
 <->-. 26
                                 j_
                                      J_
                                                        Second  high 8~
                                                        hour  overage CO,
                                                        mixed  SM5R
                                                        monltors
                                                        Second  high 8~
                                                        hour  overoge CO,
                                                        oil  monitors

                                                        LDV  emissions
                                                        adjusted for
                                                        nationwide
                                                        urbon  growth-
                                                        IDV  emissions
                                                        adjusted Tor
                                                        2,4X  growth

                                                        LDV  emissions
                                                        adjusted for
                                                        0.4X  growth
       70.71   72_73   74.75    76-77    78.79
           71.72   73.74   75.76   77.78    79_80
                         Tears

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                                      Table 1

                                 Number of Monitors

                                                     Years

      Description         7O-7 I  71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-8O


All monitors,               <13   1O1    132   178   236   269   270   246   252   247
od i ted

All monitors,               39    9O    128   165   227   267   261   241   249   243
edited and screened

Identical SMSA monitors.    13    35     47    60    83   1O2    97    92    99    95
ed i ted

Identical SMSA monitors.    12    35     47    57    8O   1O2    95    91    99    95
edited and screened

Mixed SMSA monitors.        18    51     69    09   111   128   133   133   135   136
ed i ted

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                                           Table 2
                                  Monthly Winter Temperature

                               30-Year Average
                               Tempera lure (F)
Urban Area
                     State
                               Nov
                                     Dec
                                           Jan
Anchorage
B i rm i ngham
l-lun t sv i 1 t e
Mob i 1 e
Phoen i z
Tuscon
Anaheim-Santa Ana-Garden Gro
Bakersf f e 1 d
Fresno
Los Angeles-Long Beach
Modes to
Oxriard-Slml Va 1 ) ey-Ven tura
Riverside-San Bernard 1 no-On t
Sacramen to
Sal i nas -Seas i de-Mon terey
San Diego
San Francisco-Oakland
San Jose
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lo
Santa Rosa
S lock ton
Val lejo-Falrfield-Napa
Colorado Springs
Denver-Bou 1 der
For t Col 1 ins
Fort Wayne
Gree 1 ey
Pueblo
Br idgepor t
Mar t f ord
Mew Britain
New Haven-West Haven
New London-Norwich
Norwa 1 k
Stamford
Wa terbury
Wash i ng ton , - DC
Fort Lnuderda 1 e-Ho 1 1 ywood
Jacksonv i 1 1 e
Miami
Or 1 ando
Pensaco 1 a
Ta 1 1 ahassee
Tampa-St. Petersburg
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton F
A 1 1 an ta
Honol u 1 u
Cedar Rapids
Des Molnes
Oubuque
Boise C 1 ty
AK
AL
A I.
AL
AZ
AZ
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CA
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CO
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
CT
DC
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
GA
HI
IA
IA
IA
ID
21.1
52 . 1
M
58.5
59.5
50.5
M
M
53 . 5
62 .7
M
M
M
53 .O
M
60.8
57 . 4
M
M
M
M
M
37 .5
39 . 4
M
M
M
M
M
41.3
M
M
M
M
M
M
48 .O
M
M
72.2
66 .6
M
M
66 .8
M
51.4
76.5
M
37 . 8
M
39 .8
13.0
45.2
M
52 .9
52 . 5
52 .O
M
M
45 .8
58. 1
M
M
M
15 . 8
M
56 . 7
52 .0
M
M
M
M
M
3 1 .O
32 .6
M
M
M
M
M
28 . 2
M
M
M
M
M
M
37 .4
M
M
68 . 3
61.5
M
M
61.6
M
43.5
73.7
M
25 .O
M
32. 1
11.8
44 . 2
M
51.2
51.2
5O.9
M
M
45 . 3
56.7
M
M
M
45. 1
M
55 . 2
50.9
M
M
M
M
M
28 .6
29 .9
M
M
M
M
M
24 .8
M
M
M
M
M
M
35.6
M
M
67.2
60.3
M
M
60.4
M
42 .4
72 . 3
M
19.4
M
29. O
3O-Year Average
Temperature (F)
                                                            Urban Area
                                                                                 State
                                                                                          Nov
                                                                                                Dec
                                                                                                      Jan
Chicago
Davenport-Rock Is 1 and-Mol 1 ne
Peor la
Spr 1 ngf leld
Gary-Hammond-East Chicago
Ind 1 anapol 1 s
Terre Haute
Lawrence
Topeka
Wlchl ta
Evansv 1 1 1 e
Hunt 1 n ton-Ashl and
Lex Ing ton-Fa ye tte
Lou 1 sv 1 1 1 e
Owensboro
Baton Rouge
New Orleans
Bos ton
Lowe 1 1
Pi ttsf ield
Spr 1 ngf ield-Ch Icopee-Hol yoke
Worcester
Bal t tmore
Lew 1 s ton- Auburn
Detrol t
Grand Rapids
Muskegon-Norton Shores-Muske
Saglnaw
Du 1 u th-Super lor
M 1 nneapol 1 s-St . Paul
Roches ter
St. Cloud
Kansas City
Spr i ngf leld
St. Louis
Jackson
Bill 1ngs
Grea t Falls
L Incol n
Omaha
Sioux C1 ty
Ashevt 1 le
Charlotte-Gastonla
Greensboro-Wlnston-Salem-HIg
Ral e 1gh-0urham
Mariches ter
Nashua
Al 1 entown-Bethlehem-Easton
At lant 1c C1 ty
Jersey City
Long Branch-Asbury Park.
IL
IL
IL
IL
IN
IN
IN
KC
KC
KC
KY
KY
KY
KY
KY
LA
LA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MI
MI
MI
MN
MN
MN
MN
MO
MO
MO
MS
MT
MT
NB
NB
NB
NC
NC
NC
NC
NH
NH
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
4O.4
M
39.9
4 t .9
M
41.7
M
M
42.9
44.8
M
M
44 .6
45. 0
M
M
60. 1
45.2
M
M
M
M
46. 1
M
41.1
38.7
M
M
28.4
32.4
M
M
43.6
M
45. O
55.3
M
M
M
40. 0
M
46.3
M
M
50.0
M
M
M
46. O
M
M
28.5
M
28. 0
3O.5
M
30.9
M
M
31.8
34.5
M
M
35.5
35.6
M
M
54.8
33. O
M
M
M
M
35.3
M
29.6
27 .4
M
M
14 .4
18.6
M
M
32.3
M
34.6
48.9
M
M
M
28. O
M
38 .7
M
M
41.2
M
M
M
35. 1
M
M
24.3
M
23.8
26.7
M
27.9
M
M
28. 0
31 .3
M
M
32.9
33. 3
M
M
52.9
29.2
M
M
M
M
33.4
M
25.5
23.2
M
M
8.5
12.2
M
M
27.8
M
31.3
47. 1
M
M
M
22.6
M
37.9
M
M
40.5
M
M
M
32.7
M
M

-------
      Table 2 (Continued)

   Monthly Winter Temperature

3O-Year Average
Temperature (F)
30-Year Average
Temperature (F)
Urban Area
New Brunswick-Perth Amboy-Sa
Newark
Pa terson-C 1 1 F ton-Passa i c
Phi 1 adelphf a
Trenton
Vineland-Mi 1 Ivl le-Bridgeton
W 1 1 m 1 rig ton
A 1 buquerque
Las Cruces
Las Vegas
Reno
Albany-Schenectady-Troy
B i nghamton
Buf f a 1 o
E ) m i ra
Nassau-Suf f o 1 k
New York
Poughkeeps i e
Roches t er
Syracuse
U t i ca-Rome
Akron
Canton
C 1 nc 1 nnat 1
C 1 eve 1 and
Col umbus
Dayton
Mam 1 1 ton-M i dd 1 e town
Spr i ngf i e 1 d
S teubcriv i 1 1 e-We i r ton
To 1 "do
Youngs town -Warren
Ok 1 ahoma C 1 ty
Tu 1 sa
Eugene-Spr 1 ngf 1 e 1 d
Por t 1 and
Sa 1 em
Erie
Harr i sburg
Johnstown
Lancaster
Northeast Pennsylvania
P 1 t tsburg
Read i ng
York
Providence-Warwick-Pawtucket
Charleston-North Charleston
Columb ia
Greenv 1 1 1 e-Spar tanburg
Cha t tanooga
Johnson C 1 ty-K i ngspor t-Br 1 s t
State
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NJ
NM
NM
NV
NV
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
NY
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OH
OK
OK
OR
OR
OR
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
PA
RI
SC
SC
SC
TN
TN
Nov
M
46.2
M
M
M
M
M
44 . 5
M
53 . 3
M
39 .6
M
39.8
M
M
47 . 4
M
40. 5
41.0
M
M
M
4-1 . 6
41.6
41.7-
M
M
M
M
39 .6
M
49. 2
49 . 4
M
45.3
M
M
43.8
M
M
M
44.1
M
M
43.3
56.3
M
M
M
M
Dec
M
34 .5
M
M
M
M
M
36.2
M
45.2
M
25 .9
M
27.9
M
M
35.5
M
20.3
28. 1
M
M
M
34 . 4
3O.3
30.7
M
M
M
M
28 .O
M
4O.O
39.8
M
4O. 7
M
M
32 .6
M
M
M
33. 3
M
M
31.5
49.3
M
M
M
M
Jan
M
31.4
M
M
M
M
M
35.2
M
44 .2
M
21.5
M
23.7
M
M
32 . 2
M
24.0
23.6
M
M
M
32 . 1
26.9
28.4
M
M
M
M
24 .8
M
36.8
36.6
M
38 . 1
M
M
3O. 1
M
M
M
30.6
M
M
28.4
48.6
M
M
M
M
Urban Area
Knoxv (lie
Memphi s
Nashvl 1 le-Davldson
Aus t in
Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange
Corpus Chr tst 1
Dal las-Fort Worth
El Paso
Gal veston-Texas City
Houston
Odessa
San Antonio
Provo-Orem
Salt Lake Clty-Ogden
Newport News-Hampton
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Ports
R 1 chmond
Roanoke
Seattle-Everett
Spokane
Tacoma
Yak Ima
Appleton-Oshkosh
Green Bay
damesv 1 1 1 e-Beo 1 t
Mad1 son
M 1 1 waukee
Rac 1 ne
Char 1 eston
Whee 1 Ing
State
TN
TN
TN
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
UT
UT
VA
VA
VA
VA
WA
WA
WA
WA
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WI
WV
wv
Nov
49.2
50.9
48.4
M
M
M
55.8
51 .6
M
61.1
M
59.7
M
39. 1
M
51 .6
49. 0
46.7
44 .6
35.5
M
M
M
M
M
34.7
36.5
M
45.4
M
Dec
41.5
42.7
4O.4
M
M
M
47.9
44 .4
M
54 .6
M
53.2
M
30.3
M
42.3
39. 0
37 .4
40.5
29.0
M
M
M
M
M
21.9
24.2
M
36.2
M
dan
4O.6
40.5
38 .3
M
M
M
44 .8
43.6
M
52. 1
M
50.7
M
28.0
M
40.5
37.5
36.4
38.2
25.4
M
M
M
M
M
16.8
19.4
M
34.5
M

-------