EPA-AA-TEB-EF-85-]
EVAPORATIVE HC EMISSIONS FOR MOBILES
             August 1984
     Test and Evaluation Branch
Emission Control Technology Division
     Office of Air and Radiation
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency

-------
                            Table of Contents

1.0      INTRODUCTION


2.0      MOBILE2 ASSUMPTIONS
3.0      LDGV DATA ANALYSIS FOR MOBILE3
3.1      Indolene Rates
3.1.1    Low Altitude
3.1.1.1  Tampering
3.].1.2  California Data vs. Federal Data
3.1.1.3  Differences in Fuel-Injected and Carbureted Vehicles
3.1.1.4  Summary of Low Altitude Indolene Rates
3.1.2    High Altitude
3.2      Commercial Fuel Rates
3.2.1    1981+ Vehicles
3.2.2    Pre-1981 Vehicles
3.3      Summary of LDGV Evaporative Emissions
4.0      OTHER VEHICLE TYPES
4.1      LDGT1
4.2      LDGT2
4.3      HDGV

-------
1.0      INTRODUCTION

It has been  recognized  that in estimating the  mobile  source emissions, a
sizeable  portion  of  the  hydrocarbon  (HC)  emissions  comes  from  the
evaporation  of  fuel  from  both  carburetor   and  fuel  tank  of  a  parked
vehicle.  The  evaporation  of  fuel from a vehicle at the  end of  a trip is
called  the  hot  soak  loss.   The  primary source  of emissions during hot
soak is  the  carburetor  system.  A small amount  of  the hot soak emissions
may  also occur  due  to  fuel  tank heating.   Evaporation  of fuel  from a
vehicle  due  to changes in  ambient  temperature resulting  in an  expansion
of air-fuel mixture in a partially  filled  fuel tank is called the diurnal
breathing loss.   The primary source  of  emissions in this phase  is the
gasoline  tank.   As  the  fuel  temperature   rises,  evaporation  of  fuel
increases.

All  current  automobiles  since   1971  use  a  carbon-filled canister (or
canisters) to  collect  hot  soak or diurnal fuel  vapors.   These vapors are
then  pulled  into  the  engine  during  engine  operation   to  purge  the
canister.  The  hot  soak or diurnal  emissions can  escape if the canister
is saturated  or if there  are other.problems  in  the  evaporative emission
control  system.  Evaporative  emissions are  generally  associated  only with
gasoline-powered  vehicles  and  trucks.  For diesel-powered  vehicles and
trucks,  the  evaporative emissions  are relatively insignificant due  to a
very low volatility of the diesel fuel.

Since  1971,   EPA's  Emission  Factor  (EF)  programs  have  been collecting-
evaporative  emission data  from  in-use light-duty  vehicles  and  trucks.
Indolene  has  been the  primary fuel  used  for evaporative  tests  because
Indolene  is the  specified  certification fuel,  and the  quality of Indolene
is generally  more  consistent  than other fuels.   This  consistency in fuel
quality  was  desired  to  reduce the variability  in exhaust and evaporative
emission  data.   Data from  light-duty vehicles (LDGVs) were analyzed and
the calculated Indolene evaporative emission rates were used in MOBILE2.

Evaporative  emissions  are  estimated  for both the hot   soak  and  diurnal
phases  of testing.   The  sum  of  these  two   emissions  is  the  value  to be
compared  with  the standards.   The evaporative  emission  standards  for all-
vehicle  types are summarized  in Table 1.
    At  some  test sites  both Indolene  and  commercial fuels were  used on
    certain vehicles.

-------
                                 Table 1
                     Evaporative Emission Standards
Veh.  Test
Type  Procedure*

LDGV  None
      Canister
      Canister
      SHED
      SHED
      SHED

LDGT1 None
      Canister
      Canister
      SHED
      SHED
      SHED

LDGT2 Same as HDGV
      SHED
      SHED
      SHED

HDGV  None
      Canister
      SHED
      SHED
      SHED
Standard**
(grams)

   None
   6.0
   2.0
   6.0
   2.6
   2.0

   None
   6.0
   2.0
   6.0
   2.6
   2.0

   None
   6.0
   2.6
   2.0

   None
   2.0
   6.0
   3.0/4.0
   2.0
Low Altitude
Non-California

Pre-1971
1971
1972-77
1978-80

1981+

pre-1971
1971
1972-77
1978-80

1981+

Pre-1979
1979-80

1981+

Pre-1985
1985+***
California

Pre-1970
1970-71
1972-77
1978-79

1980+

Pre-1970
1970-71
1972-77
1978-79

1980+

Pre-1977
1978-79

]980+

Pre-1973
1973-77
1978-79

1980+
High Altitude
Non-California
1977

1982-83
1984+
1977

1982+
1982+
*   The  two  test procedures  are:   canister  (or  carbon) trap  method and
    Sealed Housing for Evaporative Determinations (SHED) method.

**  The sum of hot 'soak and diurnal emissions.

*** The  1985+  evaporative  standards   are   split  by  the  gross  vehicle
    weight, with 3.0 grams/test  for vehicles  less  than 14,000  Jb.  GVW,
    and  4.0 grams/test  for vehicles greater than or  equal  to  14,000 Ib.
    GVW.

The purpose  of  this  report is  to  analyze  the evaporative  emission  data
collected  from  EF  programs and to provide  evaporative emission rates for
MOBILES.   Some  of  the basic assumptions used  In  MOBILE2 are carried  over
to  MOBILES.   For  clarity,  assumptions  used  in  MOBILE2  are  briefly
presented  in  Section 2.   Section  3  Is a detailed discussion of  the  LDGV
EF  data.   Section  4 provides  evaporative  emission  rates  for  both the
light-duty and heavy-duty  trucks.

-------
2.0      MOBILE2 ASSUMPTIONS

The LDGV  evaporative emission  data  from EF  programs prior to  1981  were
used to establish  evaporative  emission rates for MOBILE2.   Only tests on
Indolene  fuel  were  used.   In  calculating  emissions,  MOBILE2 used  the
following assumptions'

         a.  The  available  LDGV test data  from low  altitude  California
and  Federal  49-state  sites (EF71  through EF80 programs)  were combined
where their evaporative emission standards were  the  same to establish one
set  of  evaporative  emission   rates  to   represent  both  low  altitude
non-California (Federal) and California regions.

         b.  Since  there  were  very  few data  on 1981  vehicles available
when MOBILE2  was  being  developed,  the evaporative emission  levels  for
1981 and later  model  years were  based upon  1980 in-use data factored for
changes in 1980 and 1981 certification data.

         c.  The  high altitude evaporative emission  rates  were the rates
from low  altitude  multiplied   by an  altitude  correction  factor.2  This
altitude factor  was  derived from a  mathematical model  which  calculated
low and high  altitude (5200 ft.) evaporative  emissions from uncontrolled
test  vehicles.    The basic  premise  of  the model   is   that  evaporative
emissions are inversely related to  the atmospheric  pressure.  The derived
ratio of high  to low altitude  uncontrolled emissions  was  1.30.  MOBILE2
used this  ratio for all  model  year groups except one,  the one exception
being the 1977 model  year In which  the high altitude evaporative emission
standard was the same as the low altitude standard.

         d.  Since  the evaporative emission  standards were the same for
LDGVs  and  LDGTls3,  the  MOBILE2 LDGT1  evaporative  emission  rates  were
the same as the LDGVs.

         e-   The LDGT2^  evaporative  emission   rates  for  pre-1979 model
years were  the same  as those  for HDGVs.   For  1979 and  later  years,  the
LDGT2   evaporative  emission   standards  were   equivalent  to  LDGTls,
therefore, the MOBILE2 emission  rates were the same.
    Michael   W.   Leiferman,   "Effect   of   Altitude   on  noncontrolled
    Evaporative  Emissions  from  Gasoline Fueled Vehicles,"  January 1979,
    an EPA technical report from Standards Development and Support Branch.

    Light-duty trucks with 0-6000 Ibs. GVW.

    Light-duty trucks with 6001-8500 Ibs. GVW.

-------
         f.   The  HDGV  evaporative emission  rates  for  the  pre-1968  low
altitude non-California  region were  derived  from nine  in-use heavy-duty
vehicles.^   In  MOBILE2,  the  same  rates  were  applied  for  years  1968-83
since  there  was  no  evaporative  emission  standard  for HDGVs.   MOBILE2
assumed  a  proposed  standard  of  3.0  grams/test  for  1984  and  later
HDGVs^,  and  the  evaporative  emission  rates  for  3.0  gram HDGVs  were
derived  by  observing  the  changes in  in-use  LDGV evaporative  emission
rates  between 6.0  gram  vehicles  and 2.0 gram vehicles,  and  assuming  a
portion  of those changes  would  also occur  in heavy  duty  trucks  if  the
standard were 3.0 grams/test.
    See discussions on Section 4.3.

    Subsequent  to  the  publication  of  MOBILE2,  the  HDGV  evaporative
    emission standards have been  set  as  3.0 or 4.0 grams depending on the
    gross vehicle weight.  See footnote under Table 1, section 1.0.

-------
                                    7

3.0      LDGV DATA ANALYSIS FOR MOBILE3

More  evaporative  emission test data have  become  available since MOBILE2,
mostly  from  FY82  and  later  EF  Programs.   In  November  1983,   the  EF
programs  started  to  collect  evaporative  emission  data based  upon both
Indolene   and   commercial  fuels.   Also   available  are  Indolene  fuel
evaporative  emission   data   from  the  California  Air  Resources  Board
(GARB)7.   Only  LDGV data  from as-received  testing  are  included  in this
analysis.

The analysis  on LDGV  data  is  divided into  two parts:  1) the evaporative
emission  rates  based  on  Indolene  fuel,  and   2)  the  commercial  fuel
emission  levels.   Since more  vehicles  have been tested  on  Indolene fuel
than  commercial fuel,  the Indolene rates  are  used  to  draw conclusions on
issues  such  as  deterioration and   fuel  injection versus  carburetion.
However,  the  MOBILES  evaporative  emission rates are based  on commercial
fuel data.

3.1      Indolene Rates

As  almost  all  the  Indolene  test  data  collected  since  MOBILE2  are  on
vehicles  designed to  meet  the  2.0 gram  SHED standard, this  section  Is
concentrating mainly  on  results  of  these vehicles.   Attachment  1  is a
summary of  the  sample  size  in  the complete Indolene fuel evaporative data
base stratified by model year and region.

3.1.1    Low Altitude

For  2.0  grams/test   SHED  standard,  available  Indolene  fuel  test  data
representing the  Federal  region are  the EF data  collected  in Ann Arbor.
The California  data,  on  the  other hand,  include  results from  1980 and
1981  California vehicles collected  by  EPA and  data  obtained  from CARB
surveillance programs.

Discussions on  low altitude evaporative emissions are  divided into three
specific   areas-   tampering,   California  data   vs.  Federal   data,  and
differences in fuel injected and carbureted vehicles.

3.1.1.1  Tampering

One of  the major  revisions  in MOBILE3 computer model  is  that the effect
of  visible tampering  on mobile   source  emissions  is   to  be  considered
7   "Test  Report  of   the   High   Mileage   (Three-Way)   Catalyst  Vehicle
    Surveillance Program,  Series   2  (HMCVSP2),"  California Air  Resources
    Board, March, 1983.

-------
                                    8

separately  from  the  untampered  emission  factors.   For  this  reason,
vehicles  that  are  suspected  of  being  tampered  are  to  be  analyzed
separately".

Tampering is  defined  as  the disablement of any  component  of the emission
control  system,  whether  it   was done  deliberately,  inadvertently,  or
through  neglect.    The   components  of  the evaporative emission  control
system  include  the  charcoal  canister (or canisters),  purge valves,  vent
lines,  vacuum lines, and  gas  cap.   Therefore,  the disablements  of  the
evaporative  emission control  system  include  disconnected,  misrouted,  or
cut lines  (bowl,  tank vent or vacuum) or hoses  (purge control),  missing
canisters,  missing gas   caps,  and the removal  of the  entire evaporative
emission control system.

Under  these criteria,  one  California vehicle  and  five Federal vehicles
were classified as  tampered vehicles.  Attachment 2  is a list of tampered
vehicles,  their evaporative  emission  test results, and  their tampering
characteristics.   Mechanic  comments  on vehicle  conditions indicated that
the California  vehicle and  three of  the  Federal vehicles had disconnected
vacuum  lines.   For the  two remaining  Federal vehicles,  one had misrouted
vacuum  lines plus missing gas cap, and one had canister missing.

Tampering of  evaporative emission control  system has a significant effect
on  evaporative  emissions,  this  is   illustrated  in  Attachment  2.   For-
example,  vehicle  No. 4095 was  found  with canister  missing,  the Indolene
fuel evaporative emission total was  about  ten times  the emission standard
(2.0   grams/test).   Several   vehicles   listed   in  Attachment   2   had
disconnected  vacuum lines,  the  Indolene  fuel  emission totals  for these
vehicles were from  three to five  times the emission  standard.

To  derive  the untampered evaporative  emissions  for  MOBILES, all tampered
vehicles  were  excluded  from   the  sample.   Thus,  subsequent  analyses and
conclusions are all based upon  the data base with no.tampered vehicles.

3.1.1.2  California Data versus  Federal Data

The  evaporative emission  rates  for MOBILE2  were derived  from combining
Federal  data  with  the  California  data where  the  evaporative emission
standards  were the  same.   For  example,  the  emission  rates  for vehicles
built  to meet  the 2.0  gram  SHED standard were developed  from 1980 and
later  California  vehicles  and  1981 and  later Federal  vehicles.  However,
the  current  analysis  has  shown that  these  two   samples  appear to  be
    "Anti-Tampering   and  Anti-Misfueling   Programs  to   Reduce  In-Use
    Emissions From Motor Vehicles", EPA-AA-TSS-83-10, pages 35-36.

-------
nonhomogeneous.   This  nonhomogeneity  is  evident  by  examining the  mean
emissions  from these  two samples.   Table  2  is  a summary  of the  mean
emission rates and mean mileages of the two samples.

                                 Table 2

                Comparisons of  Indolene Evaporative Data
                    From the Two Low Altitude Regions
                     (SHED 2.0  Grams/Test  Standard)
Region            N
              MYR
Low Altitude
Non-California

Low Altitude
California*
        242   1981-83
         99
        157
        256
1980
1981
1980-81
          Mean Mileage
            (Miles)
37,749

16,889
 9,109
12,118
                Mean Emissions (gms)
            Hot Soak   Diurnal   Total
1.97

1.64
0.84
1.15
2.85

0.88
1.10
1.01
4.82

2.52
1.94
27T5"
*   This includes 104 vehicles  tested  by  CARB.   The mean emissions of the
    CARB data  are  not  significantly different from  the  mean emissions of
    data on California vehicles collected by EPA.

EPA  investigated  a number  of areas  to  try  to  explain  the  emission
differences between these two samples.  Areas investigated include:

     a.  Evaporative test procedures (i.e., prep cycles)

     b.  Technology
     c.
mileage
Rates of observed  malfunctions related to differences  in age or
     d.  Canister working capacities related to differences In
age/mileage, or mean Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of summer and winter fuels.

The  results  of this investigation  were  summarized in  an  EPA memo."  The
conclusions were  that  the emission  differences  of the  two  samples could
be traced  to  items  a and c  and  possibly item d.  It  is decided  that the
analysis of  Indolene fuel evaporative emission  rates  should  be  based on
the Ann Arbor data alone.
"    "Differences  Between  California and  Ann  Arbor Evaporative  Data,"
from Tom Darlington to Charles L. Gray, August 24, 1984.

-------
                                    10

3.1.1.3  Differences in Fuel-Injected and Carbureted Vehicles

The type  of  fuel delivery  system  is considered to be one  of  the factors
which may have an effect  on the evaporative emissions,  especially for the
hot  soak  emissions.   Vehicles with   fuel  injection  (both  ported  and
throttle body injection)  do  not  have carburetor float  bowls which are the
major source of the hot soak emissions in carbureted vehicles.

Table  3  provides mean Indolene evaporative  emissions  and  mean mileages
for the fuel-injected  and carbureted vehicles tested  in  Ann Arbor (sample
distributions by model year  are  given  in Attachment 3).   The hot soak and
diurnal  emissions  of  the   fuel-injected  vehicles are  lower   than  the
emissions of  carbureted  vehicles.   These differences are  significant at
the 95% level.

                                 Table 3

                   Indolene Evaporative Emission Rates
                        by  Fuel  Delivery Systems

                                       Mean          Mean Emissions (gms)
Sample                       N         Mileage       Hot Soak     Diurnal

Carbureted                  179        44,009        2.27         3.08
Fuel Injected                63        20,241        1.12         2.18

One  reason  for  the   difference   in   hot  soak  emissions  between  the
fuel-injected and  carbureted vehicles  is  the  absence  of  float  bowls on
the  fuel  injection   systems.   However,  the  difference   in  hot  soak
emissions might  be  less  if  the two samples  were  at  equivalent mileages.
There is the potential  for  leaks around injectors  in vehicles with ported
injection,  and   the  probability  of leaks increases  with   the  vehicle's
mileage and age.  This may be verified  by future  testing of high mileage
fuel-injected vehicles.

There are  a variety  of  reasons which  could  explain al]  or  part  of the
differences   in   diurnal   emissions  of   fuel-injected  and   carbureted
vehicles.  Possible reasons include:

         a.   Differences  in mean  fuel  tank  sizes  (assuming  that  the
canister sizes are the same)

         b.   Differences in observed  rates   of malfunctions   related  to
age or mileage

         c.   Differences    in     unobserved    malfunctions    (such    as
deterioration in canister  working  capacity)  related to  age  or mileage

-------
                                   11
     d.  Differences in purging technology, and

     e.  Differences  in  canister working  capacity  related  to  the  lower
hot soak emissions of fuel-injected vehicles.

Fuel  Tank  Sizes  -  One  of  the determinants  of  the  amounts of  vapor
generated  during  a  diurnal  test  is  the  vehicle's  fuel  tank  volume  or
size.  More  vapor is generated  from a large tank than a small  one when
both are  filled to  the  same  level.   However, an  examination of mean fuel
tank  sizes indicated that  the  fuel-Injected  and carbureted  samples had
the same mean fuel tank size of 14.5 gallons.

Malfunctions - The  fuel-injected vehicles in the  EF sample  are mostly of
late model year vehicles  (1982  and  1983).   The  carbureted vehicles in the
EF  sample  are high  mileage 1981 model year vehicles.  As  a  result, the
fuel-injected  vehicles  have  a  much  lower average  odometer  reading than
carbureted vehicles.

Table 4 shows  the different rates  of malfunctions between the  two samples
and the mean emissions of malfunctioning and well-functioning vehicles.

                                 Table 4

                   Indolene Evaporative Emission Rates

                              % of     Mean          Mean Emissions (gms)
Sample                  N     Sample   Mileage       Hot Soak'Diurnal

Vehicles with no malfunctions
  Carbureted           139    77.7     41,066        1.94          2.40
  Fuel-Injected         58    92.0     20,35]        1.01          1.45

Vehicles with malfunctions
  Carbureted           ' 40    22.3     54,235        3.43          5.47
  Fuel-Injected          5     8.0     18,964        2.40         10.65

The  system malfunctions   of the fuel-injected  and carbureted vehicles are
identified  in Attachment  4.   Note  that   22% of   the  carbureted vehicles
have some  kind of system malfunction, while only  8% of the fuel-injected

-------
                                    12

vehicles have  malfunctions.   The  rate  of malfunctions may  be associated
with vehicle's mileage and age,  and it  is possible that the fuel-injected
vehicles may  have similar numbers of malfunctions  when they get  to the
age  of  the  carbureted  vehicles.    However,  the  number  of  observable
malfunctions  between  the  two   samples  does  not  explain  all  of  their
emission differences,  because the  emission differences  still  remain when
the malfunctioning vehicles are removed.

Unobserved Malfunctions  -  Examples of  possible  unobserved  malfunctions
are  age  cracks  in  hoses^  and  deterioration  in  canister's  usable
working  capacity.   Although  canister's  usable working capacity  is known
to stabilize at a certain  level  after  declining somewhat from the "green"
or new condition,  it  is  possible for  the  canister working  capacity to
suffer a sharp  drop from a stabilized  level  if the canister is subjected
to a large quantity  of vapor. This is more likely to occur on carbureted
vehicles than the fuel-injected vehicles.

The method.used to  characterize  the unobserved malfunctions is to perform
regressions  on  the carbureted  and  fuel-injected  samples that  exclude
vehicles with  observed malfunctions.  If  the  deterioration rates  are the
same  and  the   zero  mile  levels  are  not  significantly  different,  the
conclusion would  be  that the fuel-injected vehicles  should emit  the same
amount of emissions as the carbureted vehicles at similar mileages.

Least  square  regression  analysis is  used  first  to  see the  relation
between  the  emissions  and   vehicles'  mileages  for  the   carbureted  and
fuel-injected  vehicles.    Results  indicate  that  deterioration  for  the
diurnal  emissions  of  both   types of  vehicles  was  nonsignificant  (the
deterioration  for  hot  soak  emissions  was also  nonsignificant),  as shown
in Table 5.  For  fuel-injected GM vehicles,  which made up the majority of
the  fuel-injected  sample,  regression  analysis  is  performed again with
result  indicating that  the   deterioration  is stil]  nonsignificant.   For
the  carbureted  vehicles,  a  least  square  analysis  of  covariance  is
performed  by  using  the  manufacturers  as strata  to  test  if vehicles from
various  manufacturers   have  the  same   deterioration  rate.   Results,
indicated  in  Table   5  also,   show  that  carbureted vehicles  from  domestic
manufacturers have  the same  and  significant  deterioration rate on diurnal
emissions.
      Recently,  vacuum testing  of  all  hoses  has been  incorporated into
      the  diagnostic  work  done  on  testing EF  vehicles  to detect  age
      cracks or other leaks that are not readily visible.

-------
                                   13

                                 Table 5

         Regression Results* on Indolene Evaporative Emissions
                     From the Problem-Free Vehicles
Sample           fJ

Carbureted-all   139
  GM              49
  Ford            43
  Other Domestic  20
  Imports         27

Fuel-Injected-all 58
  GM              47
  Ford             8
  Imports          3
                                 Hot Soak
                            ZM

                            2.11
                            1.83
                            2.13
                            2.21
                            3.10

                            1.05
                            1.02
        DR

        -0.04
        -0.01
        -0.01
        -0.01
        -0.01

        -0.02
         0.03
                                                          Diurnal
ZM
2.27
1.16
2.50
0.67
1.64
1.57
1.14
DR
0.03
0.31**
0.31**
0.31**
-0.09
-0.06
0.09
*   ZM=emissions  in grams  per  test  at  zero  miles,  DR=deterioration  rate in
grams per test per 10K miles.

**  Coefficient is significant at a level of 0.10.

Since  most  of  the  fuel-injected  vehicles  were from  GM,  it  was  decided to
perform  an  analysis of  covariance  on the  GM fuel  injected versus carbureted
vehicles  to  test  the equality  of  the regression slopes  and zero-mile levels.
The  results  are  shown  in  Table  6.   This  test  showed that  the deterioration
rates, and their  zero mile  levels,  were  not statistically different for the GM
fuel-injected and carbureted vehicles.

                                    Table 6

             Regression  Results* on  Indolene Evaporative Emissions
                      From  the  Problem-Free GM Vehicles
Sample

Carbureted
Fuel-Injected
                   49
                   47
                                   Hot Soak
ZM

1.30
1.02
                                                            Diurnal
DR

0.14
0.03
ZM

1.17
0.74
DR

0.30**
0.30**
*   ZM=zero mile  in grams  per test,  DR=deterioration  rate In  grams per
test per  10K miles.
**  Coefficient is significant at a level of 0.10.

-------
                                   14

This latter data   provides  a  preliminary indicator that the fuel-injected
vehicles may  have diurnal  emissions  similar  to  the  carbureted vehicles
when they  are at  equivalent  mileages.   However, there  is  not  yet enough
data to demonstrate this for the fleet.

Excess  Canister   Working   Capacity  of  Fuel-Injected   Vehicles   -  The
evaporative test  procedure leading up to  the  diurnal  test  consisted of
the following sequence:

    1.  Drain and refuel test fuel to 40% level
    2.  Precondition (either a 10 minute road route or 10 to 10.5
        minute dynamometer cycle)
    3.  Minimum 12 hour soak
    4.  Diurnal test

The preconditioning period  produces a  hot  soak,  which tends to add more
vapor  to  the  canister for a  carbureted   vehicle  than  is added  to the
canister of a fuel-injected vehicle.

If the canister sizes  were  similar,  the fuel-injected vehicles would have
more reserved capacity going  into  the  diurnal test.  This could also be a
reason for the lower diurnal  emissions of  fuel-injected vehicles in  these
samples.   However,   the   magnitude  of  this   effect   is   difficult  to
quantify.    Also,   pressures   from   competitive   pricing   may   lead
manufacturers  to  downsize the  canisters  of  fuel-injected vehicles  if
there is excess capacity.

Purging  Technology  -  When  the  diurnal  emission  differences  between
fuel-injected  and carbureted  vehicles were  first noted,  the  automobile
manufacturers  suggested  that  there  might  be  differences  in  purging
technology which  would lead to  the differences  in diurnal emissions.  EPA
therefore investigated  these  potential differences, and  found  them to be
mostly  insignificant.   Both  fuel-injected and  carbureted vehicles use
engine vacuum  (at  the  Intake  manifold  or at the carburetor) to pull  purge
air through the  canister  and  into the  engine.   Since many  1981 and  later
vehicles use  closed-loop  fuel  control and have  on-board  computers, both
fuel-injected  and  carbureted  vehicles   use    various  engine  sensors
(temperature,   manifold   vacuum,    and/or   engine   rpm)   to   control
purging.11  Here  there is  one  small  difference  - fuel-injected vehicles
may use  more  precise  sensors.  The  temperature  sensor  on fuel-injected
vehicles must be  a  continuous  temperature sensing  device,  so  that the
proper  mixture is delivered  to  the  engine.   A  continuous  temperature
sensing device is not  necessary on most carbureted vehicles,  because the
mixture during  cold start  is controlled by  the  choke.  The  temperature
sensing devices on carbureted vehicles are  therefore on/off devices which
sense   when   the   engine   passes   a   pre-set   temperature   point.
11   Purging is avoided during cold  start  and  idle because the additional
     HC  causes  enrichment  of the  fuel/air ratio,  causing an  increased
     risk of stalling.

-------
Therefore, control  of purging  in  fuel-injected vehicles may  be somewhat
more  precise than  in  carbureted   vehicles.   However,  the more  precise
control of  purging may  not  necessarily  lead  to lower emissions.   It is
concluded that there may not  be any differences in purging technology for
the fuel-injected and carbureted vehicles that  would lead to significant
differences in diurnal emissions.

Conclusions on the  Diurnal Emission Differences Between Fuel-Injected and
Carbureted  Vehicles  -  The  differences  in  diurnal  emissions  between
fuel-injected and carbureted  vehicles  have been attributed to differences
in observed malfunctions, possibly  unobserved  malfunctions (both of these
two  are  probably   related  to  age/mileage  differences  between the  two
samples), and possibly also the current excess capacity of canisters used
on fuel-injected vehicles  due  to  smaller hot  soak  loading.   This  excess
capacity  may  not be  a  permanent difference.   The  first  two differences
would  suggest that  fuel-injected  vehicles will  have diurnal  emissions
similar to the carbureted  vehicles when  they  are  at equivalent  mileages.
Therefore,  it   is   concluded  that   the  diurnal   emission  rates  from
carbureted  vehicles  are   the  most   representative   for  all   vehicles
(fuel-injected and carbureted)  at this  time.

Conclusions  on  the Hot  Soak  Emission Differences  Between Fuel-Injected
and Carbureted Vehicles  - The  differences in hot  soak emissions between
carbureted  and   fuel-injected  vehicles  may   be   attributed  to  their
differences  in  a fuel  delivery system (with  and without  the carburetor
float  bowls).   Therefore, it  is  concluded that  the  hot  soak  emissions
should  be  derived  from  separate hot soak rates  for the two types of fuel
delivery systems and weighted according to their respective market shares.

3.1.1.4  Summary of Low Altitude Indolene Rates

A  summary of  low  altitude  Indolene  fuel  evaporative emission  rates is
given  in Table  7.    The MOBILE2  emission rates,  which  were based upon
Indolene  fuel  data, are also  listed for comparison purposes.   Note that
the MOBILE2  hot  soak  and diurnal emission  rates for 1981 and later years
were updated.  Rates for pre-1978 years remain unchanged.

The MOBILE2  low  altitude 1978-80 rates,  1.56  grams  for hot soak and 2.65
grams  for  diurnal,  seem unrealistically  low,  in comparison  with  the new
1981+   rates.   There  have been no  significant  design changes-^ made to
the   evaporative   emission   control   hardware  since  1978   model  year
     There  are no  significant  hardware  differences between  the 1978-80
     and 1981  and  later  model year group low altitude vehicles.  The only
     exception is  the  1980  California  vehicles  that had extra charcoal in
     their canisters because of  the  new SHED 2.0 grams/test standard that
     came  into effect in  1980.   That  extra charcoal,  however,  has been
     taken out for 1981 and later California vehicles.

-------
                                    16

vehicles.  MOBILE2  derived  1978-80 evaporative  emission  rates based upon
mostly  low  mileage non-California  vehicles  (with mean mileage  at 14,100
miles,  from  Table  8,  Section 3.1.2)  and  a few  California  vehicles.   To
use  the MOBILE2  rates  of  1.56  grams for  hot  soak  and 2.65  grams  for
diurnal  would  imply  that  1978-80  SHED  6.0 grams/test  standard vehicles
represented a  better  emission control than  the  1981+  SHED 2.0 grams/test
standard  vehicles.   It  is  more  likely  that  the difference  is  due  to
sample  differences.   Since the  sample of 1981+ vehicles is  much larger
and  at more  appropriate mileage,  the  1978-80 emission rates  were  set
equal  to the  1981+  rates.   No  fuel-injection  sales  are    assumed  for
1978-80  vehicles.   Therefore, the  Indolene  emission  rates  of 2.27 grams
for  hot soak  and  3.08  grams for diurnal  from the  carbureted vehicles
(from Table 3) are used also for 1978-80 model year vehicles.

The Indolene hot  soak emission rates  of  1.12 grams from  the fuel-injected
vehicles and  2.27 grams from  the carbureted vehicles  (from Table 3) are
used  to derive hot soak rates  for 1981 and  later model year vehicles-
These  two  rates   are weighted  together  by  sales projections  of  fuel
injected  and  carbureted  vehicles  to derive  overall  Indolene  hot  soak
rates.   The  LDGV  fuel  injection  sales  projections are  presented  in
Attachment 5.   The Indolene emission  rate  of 3.08  grams for the diurnal
loss from the  carbureted vehicles  (from Table  3)  is used for the diurnal
emission rate of all  1981 and  later vehicles.

The  Indolene  evaporative  emission rates, although not  used  directly  in
MOBILES,  are  useful  in fuel  volatility  studies.   The  conclusions  from
Indolene  fuel  emission  analyses,   such  as  deriving hot  soak  rates  from
fuel  injected   and carbureted  vehicles, and  using  only the carbureted
sample  for  diurnal  emissions,  are  carried over  into  the  analysis  of
commercial fuel rates used for MOBILE3.

-------
                                   17
                                 Table 7

         Low Altitude LDGV Indolene Evaporative Emissions  (gms)
                      Equivalent MOBILES
                        Indolene Rates                  MOBILE2
MYR Group

Pre-1971
1971
1972-77
1978-80*

1981**
1982
1983
1984

1985-86
1987-89
1990+
Hot Soak
14.67
10.91
8.27
2.27
2.16
2.06
1.95
1.81
1.57
1.36
1.25
Diurnal
26.08
16.28
8.98
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
Hot Soak
14.67
10.91
8.27
1.56
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
Diurnal
26.08
16.28
8.98
2.65
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
1.07
*   Emission  rates  for  model year  group  1978-80  are  set  equal  to  the
    emission  rates  from  1981 and later  carbureted vehicles  (2.27 grams
    for   hot   soak   and   3.08   grams   for   diurnal).    There   are   no
    fuel-Injection sales (see Attachment 5).

**  For  1981   and  later  years,  the  hot  soak  rates  a  sales  weighted
    combination  of  1.12  grams  for  the  fuel-injected vehicles  and  2.27
    grams  for the carbureted  vehicles.   Sales  of  fuel-injected vehicles
    can  be obtained  from Attachment  5.   The  diurnal  emission  of  3.08
    grams  for the carbureted  vehicles  is  used  for all  Indolene diurnal
    rate.

-------
                                   18
3.1.2  High Altitude

There  are  no  separate  evaporative  emission  standards  for  the  high
altitude region except for model years  1977  and 1982 and later (see Table
1).   For all  model years,  manufacturers have generally  used the  same
evaporative  emission  control  system  on vehicles  without  differentiating
whether  the  vehicles  were  to be sold  at  high or  low  altitude.   MOBILE2
used  the altitude factor of  1.30  for most  of  the model years  to adjust
the  low  altitude evaporative  emission  rates to high  altitude (discussed
previously in  Section 2.0).   The  exception was  1977,  in which high and
low  altitude rates were  assumed to  be the same  because  their  emission
standards were the same.

There  were  no  high  altitude  evaporative  emission  data  from  in-use
vehicles available for  the  pre-1972 years.   An altitude correction factor
of  1.30  was derived  from  emissions  of uncontrolled  test  vehicles  (see
discussions  on high  altitude  evaporative   emission  rates  under  Section
2.0).  Since pre-1972  vehicles are  basically  uncontrolled  vehicles (no
evaporative  emission standard  for pre-1971 vehicles and 6.0 gram canister
for  1971  vehicles),  this  altitude  factor of 1.30  is probably appropriate
for  use.  Therefore,  the  pre-1972  high altitude evaporative  rates are
derived  from low altitude rates adjusted by the altitude factor of 1.30.

EPA's  Emission Factor programs  also  collected  evaporative  emission data
from  in-use  light-duty  vehicles operated  and  tested  in  Denver.   These
data have shown that  the  altitude  factor of  1.30 developed from emissions
of  uncontrolled  vehicles  may  not   be appropriate  for  the  controlled
vehicles.    Table   8   is   a  comparison  of   high  versus  low  altitude
evaporative  emissions.  All  vehicles  with  malfunctions have been included
in  the  mean  emission  results, while   the  tampered  vehicles have  been
excluded.

Note  that for the 2.0 grams/test  canister standard,  the  low  altitude
rates  are  represented by  combining  the non-California and  California
data,  since  there were  practically no low altitude non-California  data in
this model year group.  For  the two  SHED standards, only the low altitude
non-California  data are  used  for  comparison.   The 2.0  gram California
vehicles  have  been  excluded  in estimating the   2.0  gram  low  altitude
emission rates, for the reasons discussed in section 3.1.1.4.

-------
Standard
Group
Canister
  2.0
SHED 6.0
SHED 2.0
                                   19

                                 Table 8

                 Comparison of Indolene Evaporative Data
                       for High vs. Low Altitudes
Altd.

High
Low&Calif
Ratio*

High

Low
Ratio

High

Low
Ratio
1972-76
1972-77
1978-80

1978-80


1981

1981+
 N

 60
 96
169

124


 64

242
                                  Mean
                      Mean     Emissions (gms)
                      Mileage  Hot
                      (miles)  Soak     Diurnal
10,170
17,500
13,100
14,100
6,800
37,821
14.07
8.27
1.70
4.26
1.62
2.63
1.36
1.97
0.69
17.15
8.98
6.77
2.67
2.54
2.81
2.85
*   Ratio of high to low altitude mean emissions.

The  ratios  of high  to  low altitude  Indolene fuel  evaporative  emissions
for  the  SHED standard of  2.0  grams/test  may not be valid  because  of the
mileage  difference  between the high  and  low altitude data  (6,800  versus
37,821 miles).  For  the  other two standard  groups,  the  mean mileages for
the  two  regions  are similar,  and  the ratios of high  versus low altitude
mean  emissions  are from  1.70 to  2.63,  all considerably higher  than the
altitude factor of 1.30 used for MOBILE2.

One  reason  the   high  to  low  altitude  emission  ratios are  higher  for
controlled  vehicles  may  be  that  the canister  has a capacity  limit  in
holding  the  fuel  vapor, whether at low or high altitude.  For example,  in
an uncontrolled  vehicle,   30  grams of fuel  vapor  may  be produced  by the
fuel  tank during  a diurnal at low altitude.   At high  altitude because  of
a lower  atmospheric  pressure,  the fuel tank may produce 39 grams of fuel
vapor — yielding a high  to low altitude emission  ratio of  1.30 (39 grams
divided  by  30 grams).  However, if the canister  can only hold 25 grams  of
fuel  vapor  before  saturation  in  both low  and  high altitude  regions,  5
grams of fuel vapor will  be  emitted  at  low altitude  (30 grams  minus  25
grams),   while  14  grams will  be  emitted  at high altitude (39  grams minus
25 grams).   The  resulting ratio of high  to  low  altitude emissions  is 2.8
(14 grams divided by 5 grams).

-------
                                   20

For  the years  of  1972-76,  high  altitude  data  from  testing  60  In-use
vehicles were available  through EF programs.  The  average  emission rates
of 14.07 grams for hot soak  and 17.15  grams for diurnal should be used as
the  Indolene  rates  to  represent  the  emission  rates  at  high  altitude.
Since  the  evaporative emission standard  was  the  same  for both low and
high altitudes in  1977,  MOBILE2 combined  the high  altitude data with the
low  altitude  data to  derive  average  emission levels  and  used  them for
both regions.   No new data are  available  since  MOBILE2,   therefore  the
MOBILE2 1977 rates should remain unchanged in MOBILES.

For  the 1978-80  and  1981 model years,  the altitude factor  used to  adjust
the  low altitude  rates to high altitude  is  2.59,  the average of hot soak
and  diurnal ratios  (from Table 8) from  the  1978-80 samples.  The average
2.59 of the diurnal  and  hot  soak ratios was used rather than the separate
ratios  for  the   sake  of  simplicity,   since  the   two  ratios  were  not
significantly different.

The  average emission rates  from  1978-80 high altitude  vehicles could be
used   directly   for   MOBILE3.    However,  this   would  result   in  an
inconsistency  of  lower  evaporative  emissions  for  1978-80  years,  in
comparison with the  1981  rates (4.26  grams for  1978-80 vs.  5.88 grams for
1981 on hot  soak,  and 6.77  grams  for  1978-80 vs.  7.98  grams  for 1981 on
diurnal).   This would  imply  that the 1978-80 vehicles  represent a  better
level  of  control than  the  1981  vehicles.  To avoid  this  inconsistency,
the altitude factor of 2.59  is used for both 1978-80 and 1981 years.

Since  there are  very  limited  data available from  high  altitude for 1982
and  1983,  (only  four  1982  vehicles  were tested,  and  there was no 1983
vehicles tested)  the high altitude rates  are those from the low altitude
multiplied by a  ratio  of the evaporative emission standards of  1.30 (SHED
2.6  grams/test  standard  for  the  high  altitude  vs. SHED  2.0 grams/test
standard for  the low  altitude).   Since  both  regions have  the  same SHED
2.0  gram  standard  for years 1984 and later, low  altitude  hot soak rates
of  1.12 grams from  the  fuel-injected  vehicles  and 2.27  grams  from the
carbureted vehicles  are  used  for  high  altitude Indolene hot  soak  rates.
The  low altitude diurnal  rate of 3.08 grams from  carbureted  vehicles is
used for the  high  altitude  diurnal emission level  for all  1984 and later
year vehicles.

A  summary  of the  high  altitude Indolene  evaporative emission  rates is
given  in  Table  9.   MOBILE2  rates   are  also  listed  for  comparison
purposes.    Note  that  for 1981 and  later years,  the Indolene  hot  soak
rates  are  derived   from  the  high altitude  hot  soak  emissions of  fuel
injected  and  carbureted vehicles  weighted by  their sales  projections.
The  high altitude  fuel injection sales are  assumed to be the same  as the
low altitude.

-------
                                   21
                                 Table 9

         High Altitude LDGV Indolene Evaporative Emissions (gms)

                                                  MOBILE2
MYR
Group
Pre-1971
1971
1972-76
1977
1978-80
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985-86
1987-89
1990+
Ihdolene
Hot Soak
19.07
14.18
14.07
8.27
5.88
5.60
2.68
2.54
1.81
1.57
1.36
1.25
Rates
Diurnal
33.90
21.16
17.15
8.98
7.98
'7.98
4.00
4.00
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
Hot Soak
19.07
14.18
10.75
8.27
2.03 .
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
0.82
Diurnal
33.90
21.16
11.67
8.98
3.45
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
Note 1:  1972-76 model year emission  rates  are  the  average emissions from
         60  in-use  vehicles   tested  at   Denver  available  through  EF
         programs.

Note 2:  The 1978-80  Indolene  emission  rates  are  based  on  low  altitude
         1981+  emission  rates   from  carbureted  vehicles  (there are  no
         fuel-injection sales,  see Attachment 5), adjusted by a factor of
         2.59,  i.e., hot  soak of  5.88 grams is  from 2.27 grams multiplied
         by 2.59, and diurnal of  7.98 grams is  from 3.08 grams multiplied
         by 2.59.

Note 3:  The Indolene hot soak  rates  for 1981  and later are  derived  from
         weighting  the  sales  of fuel-injected  and  carbureted  vehicles.
         The Indolene diurnal emissions  are based on  the average  from the
         carbureted vehicles alone.

Note 4:  For model  years 1981  and 1982,  an emission  standard  ratio  of
         1.30  is used  to adjust the  low  altitude rates  to be  the  high
         altitude rates.

Note 5:  For 1984 and later model years,  the high altitude rates are  the
         same  as the low altitude because their emission  standards  are
         the same.

-------
                                   22

3.2      Commercial Fuel Rates

Evaporative emissions  are  sensitive  to  the  volatility of the  test  fuel.
Using  a  higher  volatility  test  fuel  results  in  higher  evaporative
emissions.   The  Indolene   fuel  used   for   laboratory  tests  is  of  low
volatility  (approximately   9.0  RVP)  in comparison  with commercial  fuel
used by motor  vehicles.   It has also been noted that  during recent  years
the spread  between  the volatilities  of  Indolene and commercial  fuels has
increased.  Consequently,  the  MOBILE2  evaporative emission  rates,  which
were based  on  tests with  Indolene  fuel, are unrealistically  low at this
time.

The EF  programs since November  of  1983 have been  collecting evaporative
emission  data  on  both Indolene  and  commercial fuels  at Ann  Arbor.   An
unleaded  summer grade  gasoline  with  an average  RVP  of 11.5   has  been
selected  as  the representative  commercial fuel  used in  this  EF testing.
All of the  testing  on  this 11.5 RVP  commercial  fuel has been conducted in
Ann Arbor.

The commercial  fuel data  collected under  FY83  and  later EF programs are
from  2.0  gram  SHED   standard   (1981  and later)   vehicles.   Evaporative
emission  rates  derived  from  these  commercial  fuel  data  were used  in
MOBILES to  represent  1981  and   later model  year vehicles.   For pre-1981
years,  MOBILE3  commercial  fuel   rates   were   estimated.    Thus,   the
discussions  on  commercial  fuel evaporative   emission  rates  for  low
altitude  vehicles  are  divided  into  two parts:  1981 and  later model year
vehicles and pre-1981 vehicles.

3.2.1    1981+ Vehicles

Ampng  the  115  untampered  vehicles that were tested on both Indolene and
commercial  fuels   in   the  EF   programs  (indicated  by  parentheses  in
Attachment  3),  53  are from high mileage carbureted vehicles  and 62 from
relatively  low  mileage fuel-injected   vehicles.   A  comparison of  mean
evaporative emissions from  the  two fuels is given in Table 10.

                                 Table 10

                          Evaporative Emissions
                      Indolene vs. Commercial Fuels
                         Hot Soak                Diurnal
                   Mean (gm/test)         Mean (gm/test)
Sample        IJ    Indol.  Comm.  Ratio   Indol.    Comm.    Ratio

Carbureted    53   2.74   3.98    1.45    4.22      9.31     2.21
Fuel-Injected 62   1.32   1.55    1.38    2.21      3.13     1.42

-------
                                   23

Note  that  there  exists a  large  difference  in  commercial  fuel  diurnal
emissions between  the carbureted  and  fuel-injected vehicles (9.31 grams
vs.  3.13  grams from  Table  10).  The  discussions  on the  reasons  for the
Indolene  fuel  diurnal  emission  differences  between  fuel-injected  and
carbureted vehicles (section 3.1.1.3) are applicable here also.

Based upon the  above  data  and  the conclusions obtained  from the Indolene
fuel  data  (Section 3.1.1.4),  MOBILES  has  used  the commercial fuel hot
soak  emissions  of  1.55 and  3.98 grams (from Table  10)  for fuel-injected
and  carbureted vehicles,   respectively.   These  two  rates  are  weighted
together by sales projections  of fuel  injected  and carbureted vehicles to
derive overall  MOBILE3  hot  soak emission rates for  1981  and later years.
The  fuel injection  sales  projections are presented  in Attachment  5.  The
commercial  fuel  diurnal  emission   rate  of  9.31  grams   from  carbureted
sample are used directly  to represent MOBILE3 diurnal rates for all 1981
and later year vehicles.

3.2.2    Pre-1981 Vehicles

The  Indolene  emission rates for the SHED 2.0  gram vehicles are used also
for  the  6.0  gram SHED  standard   vehicles  (model  years   1978-80),  as
discussed in  Section  3.1.1.4.   To be  consistent with  the Indolene rates,
the  commercial  fuel  emission  rates  from the  2.0 gram SHED standard are
also used for 6.0 gram SHED standard vehicles.

To   establish   LDGV  commercial  fuel   levels  for  pre-1978  evaporative
emission standards,   the Test  and Evaluation  Branch  of  EPA  initiated  a
testing  program to  test six  vehicles  on  both  Indolene  and  commercial
fuels.   The   six   vehicles  represent  the  three  pre-1978  evaporative
emission standard eras as:

Standard                MYR                 Vehicles

None                    pre-1971            1963 Ford Galaxie
                                            1970 Chrysler Newport

Canister 6.0            1971                1971 Ford Galaxie
                                            1971 Ford LTD Wagon

Canister 2.0            1972-77             1974 Buick Century
                                            1975 Chevrolet Nova

Each vehicle was tested at  least twice with each fuel, with a total of 28
tests completed in early February of  1984.  Five tests  were not  used in
calculating  the commercial  to  Indolene fuel  emission ratios  because of
some technical  problems detected after the  data  had been  collected.  Test
results are summarized in Table  11.

-------
                                   24
                                Table 11

                        Evaporative Test Results
                      Indolene vs. Commercial Fuels
Evaporative
Emissions    Standard
Hot Soak
Diurnal
None
Canister 6.0
Canister 2.0

None
Canister 6.0
Canister 2.0
MYR

pre-1971
1971
1972-77

pre-1971
1971
1972-77
                               Mean(gm/test)
MOBILE2
14.67
10.91
8.27
26.08
16.28
8.98
Indolene
16.03
16.40
10.38
12.09
5.18
4.04
Cotmn •
24.59
24.24
29.45
22.26
12.26
13.72
                                                       Ratio*
 ,53
 ,48
 ,84
1.84
2.37
3.40
*   Ratio = Commercial fuel emissions divided by Indolene fuel emissions.

The  Indolene  emission  rates  obtained  from the  new tests  are  different
from  those  used  in  MOBILE2.   The  MOBILE2  rates  for Indolene  fuel were
obtained from  in-use  vehicles  tested  at  Los Angeles, with  a much larger
sample size and are,  therefore,  used  in MOBILES.   The  MOBILES commercial
fuel  evaporative   rates  for  pre-1978  cars are  estimated  from  MOBILE2
Indolene  rates,  multiplied  by commercial  to  Indolene emission  ratios
either from Table 11,  or from Table 10.

The ratios of  1.53 for  hot  soak and 1.84  for diurnal (Table 11) developed
from  pre-1971   test  vehicles are  used to  adjust  the  pre-1971  Indolene
emissions to MOBILES  commercial rates.   The ratios of  1.48 for hot soak
and 2.37 for diurnal  developed  from 1971  test vehicles are used to adjust
the   1971   Indolene   rates  to  MOBILES  commercial   fuel  evaporative
emissions.  These  ratios appear to  be reasonable in  comparison  with the
SHED  2.0  gram  ratios  (1.45 for hot  soak and 2.21  for  diurnal)  from the
carbureted sample in Table  10.

The  ratios  for  the   2.0 gram  canister  standard  vehicles  from  Table  11
appear too high (2.84  on hot  soak  and 3.40 on diurnal) when compared with
all  other  ratios  from  precontrolled   and  controlled  vehicles^  (for
example, 1.48  on  hot  soak  and  2.37 on diurnal for  the  6.0 gram canister
13
     Tests on  1978  vehicles in St. Louis  on  both Indolene and commercial
     fuels yielded  a  hot  soak ratio of  1.54  and  a diurnal ratio of 2.12-
     These were not  used,  however, because of  the uncertainty of the RVP
     of the commercial fuel used.

-------
                                    25

standard vehicles).  The ratios  of  1.49  for hot soak and 2.62 for diurnal
emissions are used  to  adjust the Indolene  levels  to commercial rates for
the  1972-77 vehicles.   These  ratios are  derived  from  32 in-use  high
mileage 1981 carbureted vehicles.   They  were  used  in the draft version of
MOBILE3.  They are used also in the final version of MOBILE3.

-------
3.3
                                   26
Summary of LDGV Evaporative Emissions
Table 12  is  a summary of  the developed LDGV  evaporative  emission rates.
The  low altitude  Indolene  rates are  from Table  7.   For  pre-1978  model
years,  the commercial  fuel  emissions are derived from emission  ratios of
different fuels.   For  1978  and later years, the commercial fuel hot soak
emissions are  1.55 grams  for the fuel-injected vehicles  and 3.98  grams
for  the carbureted vehicles.  The  commercial  fuel diurnal  emissions  for
1978 and later years are 9.31 grams.

The  high altitude  Indolene  rates  are  from  Table 9.   The low altitude
emission  ratios  of different  fuels  are also  used  for the  high altitude
for  the pre-1978 vehicles.   For  1978  and  later years, the high altitude
commercial fuel  emissions  are derived  from  the low altitude  commercial
rates.  For  example,  an altitude factor of 2.59 is used  for  1978-81, an
emission  standard  ratio  of  1.30 is used for years  1982 and 1983,  and  the
high altitude  rates  are the  same as the low altitude rates for 1984  and
later years,  as discussed in Section 3.1.2.

                                 Table  12
                  LDGV Evaporative Emission Rates (gms)
                                 Hot Soak
                                                 Diurnal
Region
Low Altitude
     MYR Group   Indol.   Ratio   Comm.    Indol.  Ratio  Comm.
pre-1971
1971
1972-77
1978-80
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985-86
1987-89
1990+
14.67
10.91
8.27
2.27
2.16
2.06
1.95
1.81
1.57
1.36
1.25
1.53
1.48
1.49








22.45
16.15
12.32
3.98
3.75
3.54
3.31
3.01
2.50
2.05
1.82
26.08 1.84
16.28 2.37
8.98 2.62
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
47.99
38.58
23.53
9.31
9.31
9.31
9.31
.9.31
9.31
9.31
9.31
High Altitude pre-1971
1971
1972-76
1977
1978-80
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985-86
1987-89
1990+
19.07
14.18
14.07
8.27
5.88
5.60
2.68
2.54
1.81
1.57
1 . 36
1.25
1.53
1.48
1.49
1.49








29.18
20.99
20.96
12.32
10.31
9.71
4.60
4.30
3.01
2.50
2.05
1.82
33.90
21.16
17.15
8.98
7.98
7.98
4.00
4.00
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
1.84
2.37
2.62
2.62








62.38
50.15
44.93
23.53
24.11
24.11
12.10
12.10
9.31
9.31
9.31
9.31

-------
                                    27

     Figure  1  (obtained  from  A  DOE  survey)  shows  the  trends  in  fuel
volatility  from  1959  to  1982.    The  RVP  of  the  summer  grade   leaded
gasolines was around 9.0  Ibs until about  1972, and  has  been increasing
since 1972  to  about  10.0 Ibs  in 1980.  The  commercial fuel  used in EF
programs was  11.5 RVP,  the  average RVP of summer grade unleaded gasolines
used  around  Detroit  which  is  one of  the gasoline  volatility  Class  C
cities^  with  summer  temperature  ranges  between  60"F  and  84"F.   The
majority  of  non-California  cities were classified  as either  Class B or
Class C  in  1983.  The average  volatility  levels of summer grade unleaded
gasolines used  among  the Class B  cities  such  as Dallas are  lower  (about
10.0  RVP) yet  those  cities have  summer temperature  ranges  between  65°F
and 95°F, which would produce  similar  amount  of diurnal emissions  as the
11.5  RVP  commercial fuel because  of their  higher temperatures.  Based on
this, EPA feels that  the commercial fuel evaporative  emission  rates given
in  Table  12  are appropriate for  1980  and  later calendar years.   Because
of  the   lower   in-use   fuel  RVP  for  pre-1980  calendar   years,   these
commercial  fuel evaporative  emission  rates may not  be  suitable for  use
for  those calendar  years.   But  the  pre-1980 calendar years  are  not  of
main  concern  to most  MOBILES users.
                                   Figure 1

                          Trends  in RVP,  Leaded  Gasoline
                                     1959-82

                         Source:  DOE, "Motor Gasolines"
                  14.0
                  1959'60'6 I '62 '6J '61 '65'66 '67 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 '73 '71 '75 '76 '77 '78
                                                                  80 '81 '62 '83
      The American Society for  Testing  Materials (ASTM) recommends maximum
      gasoline  volatility  levels  for   different   cities   based  on  their
      summer temperatures.  Warm  cities  such  as  Phoenix,  Dallas have lower
      recommended RVP maximums.   The  recommended maximum volatility levels
      for summer  fuel  in  1983  are 9.0  in New  Mexico (Class  A),  10.0 in
      Dallas (Class  B),  11.5 in  Detroit (Class  C), and 13.5  in  cities of
      Alaska (Class  D).   These  recommended fuel maximum volatility levels
      are intended  to prevent  or  reduce  problems  such  as vapor  lock in
      vehicles.

-------
                                    28

4.0      OTHER VEHICLE TYPES

LDGV  evaporative  emission  rates  obtained  from  the previous  section are
used as the basis  to  derive evaporative emission rates for other gasoline
powered vehicles.

4.1      Light-Duty Gasoline Class 1 Trucks

Limited Indolene evaporative emission  test  data  from LDGTls are available
from EF  programs.   The  LDGT1  data  are not significantly  different  from
the  LDGV  data,  and  the  evaporative   emission  standards  for these  two
vehicle  classes are   exactly  the  same.   Therefore,   low altitude  LDGV
evaporative emission  rates on  both the  Indolene and  commercial fuels are
also  used  for  LDGTls.   The  only  difference  between  these   two  vehicle
classes  is the  fuel  injection sales  projections.  As  can be  seen  from
Attachment 5,  LDGT1 fuel  injection  sales  were projected  to  begin in the
year  of  1984  and  continue at a  different  percentage  until   the  year  of
1988.  Therefore,  the  LDGT1 hot  soak  rates  between  the  years of 1981 and
1987 are slightly different from the LDGV rates.

The  high  altitude  LDGV  evaporative emission  rates  on both  the  Indolene
and  commercial fuels  for  pre-1984  model  years  are  also used for  high
altitude  LDGT1  emission  rates.   For  1984  and  later   years,  the  high
altitude LDGTls  have  a  SHED 2.6  grams/test emission  standard,  while the
low altitude LDGTls have the same  evaporative  emission standard (SHED 2.0
grams/test)  as   the  LDGVs.    Therefore,  in   parallel  to   the   LDGV
relationships the high altitude emission rates for 1984  and later trucks,
Indolene or commercial fuel,  are  the  low altitude rates  multiplied  by  an
emission standard ratio of 1.30.

Table 13 is a summary of  the LDGT1 evaporative emission rates.

-------
                                   29
Region
Low Altitude
                                Table 13

                 LDGT1 Evaporative Emission Rates  (gms)
     MYR Group

     pre-1971
     1971
     1972-77
     1978-80
     1981-83
     1984
     1985
     1986
     1987
     1988-89
     19904-
Hot Soak
Indol.
14.67
10.91
8.27
2.27
2.27
2.09
1.90
1.72
1.56
1.36
1.25
Ratio Comm.
1.53 22.45
1.48 16.15
1.49 12.32
3.98
3.98
3.59
3.20
2.81
2.47
2.05
1.82
                                                          Diurnal
                                                    Indol.  Ratio  Comrn.
26.08
16.28
 8.98
                                                       08
                                                       08
                                                       08
                                                       08
                                                       08
                                                       08
                                                       08
1.84
2.37
2.62
                                                     3.08
47.99
38.58
23.53
 9.31
 9.31
 9.31
 9.31
 9.31
 9.31
 9.31
 9.31
High Altitude pre-1971
1971
1972-76
1977
1978-81
1982-83
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988-89
1990+
19.07
14.18
14.07
8.27
5.88
5.88
2.71
2.47
2.23
2.02
1.76
1.62
1.53
1.48
1.49
1.49
-







29.18
20.99
20.96
12.32
10.31
10.31
4.67
4.16
3.65
3.21
2.67
2.37
33.90
21.16
17.15
8.98
7.98
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
1.84
2.37
2.62
2.62
-







62.38
50.15
44.93
23.53
24.11
12.10
12.10
12.10
12.10
12.10
12.10
12.10
4.2
Light-Duty Gasoline Class 2 Trucks
There  are very  few LDGT2  test data  in the  EF programs.   For pre-1979
model  years,  LDGTs with gross  vehicle weight  (GVW)  over  6,000 Ibs. were
classified  as HDGVs.   Therefore,  the emission  rates and  standards for
LDGT2s  for  pre-1979 model  years  are the same  as  those  for HDGVs.   Since
LDGT2s  have  the same  evaporative emission  standards as LDGTls  for 1979
and later years, the same emission rates are used.

Table  14  is a summary  of  the LDGT2 evaporative emission rates.  Note that
for  the hot  soak  rates,  the LDGT2  fuel injection  sales  projections are
the  same  as the LDGTls.   For high altitude 1984  and later vehicles, the
emission  rates  are the  low altitude  rates  multiplied  by  an  emission
standard ratio of  1.30.

-------
                                   30
                                Table 14
                 LDGT2 Evaporative Emission Rates  (gms)
                                 Hot Soak
                                                 Diurnal
Region
Low Altitude
     MYR Group   Indol.   Ratio   Comm.    Indol.  Ratio  Comtn.
     pre-1979    18.08    1.53
     1979-80      2.27
     1981-83      2.27
     1984         2.09
     1985         1.90
     1986         1.72
     1987         1.56
     1988-89      1.36
     1990+        1.25
High Altitude pre-1979    23.50    1.53
              1979-81      5.88
              1982-83      5.88
              1984         2.71
              1985         2.47
              1986         2.23
              1987         2.02
              1988-89      1.76
              1990+        1.62
27.66
42.33   1.84
3.98
3.98
3.59
3.20
2.81
2.47
2.05
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
3.08
                                            1.82
          3.08
35.96
10.31
10.31
4.67
4.16
3.65
3.21
2.67
55.03
7.98
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
                                                   1.84
                                   2.37
          4.00
 77.89
  9.31
  9.31
  9.31
  9.31
  9.31
  9.31
  9.31
  9.31

101.26
 24.11
 12.10
 12.10
 12.10
 12.10
 12.10
 12.10
 12.10
4.3
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles
MOBILE2  used  12.90  grams  for  hot  soak  emissions and  31.90 grams  for
diurnal  emissions   for  the  evaporative   emission   rates   of  pre-1985
uncontrolled   HDGVs    (also   pre-1979   LDGT2s)   in   the   low  altitude
non-California  region.   These  emission  rates   were  derived  from  nine
in-use  heavy-duty   vehicles. -^   There   are  no   new  in-use  test  data
available  since  MOBILE2.   However,   in  comparison   with  LDGV  Indolene
evaporative  emission rates  for  the no-standard  era   (pre-1971),  the  hot
soak  of  12.90 grams  is lower than  that of  14.67  grams from  the LDGVs.
This  seems  to  be  unreasonable  as HDGVs  generally have larger carburetors
and experience more severe usage than the LDGVs.
15
     Memo  on  "Quantity  of  Evaporative  HC  Emissions  from  Heavy-Duty
     Vehicles" from Michael W. Leiferman to Marcia Williams, May 11, 1977.

-------
                                   31

Test   data  submitted   by   GM   for   the   HDGV  evaporative   emission
rulemakingl^  have  shown  an  average   full-SHED  hot  soak  emissions  of
18.08  grams  and  diurnal  emissions  of 42.33 grams  based upon  Indolene
fuel.   These  results  were  obtained  from  testing  of  two  uncontrolled
vehicles,  one  a heavy-duty  pick-up,  and one  C-7 series  tractor.   These
data were  submitted with the  intention to  show a  good correlation between
the GM proposed component  test  procedure and  the  EPA proposed "full-SHED"
test  procedure for HDGV  engine  certifications.   These  emission  rates
appear  to be  reasonable,  in  comparison  with the LDGV  rates  from  the
precontrolled   period.   The higher  rate  of  hot  soak emissions  of  HDGVs
(18.08  vs.  14.67  grams  from  LDGVs)  can  be  attributed  to  their  larger
carburetors  and more variable  operating temperatures.   The higher rate of
diurnal emissions  (42.33 vs.  26.08 grams from LDGVs)  can be attributed to
the  fact  that  HDGVs have  larger  fuel tanks.  Therefore,  these  rates of
18.08  and 42.33 grams  are used  as  the Indolene rates for  low altitude
pre-1985  HDGVs and pre-1979   LDGT2s.   The  corresponding high  altitude
Indolene   emission  rates  are   the  low  altitude   Indolene  emissions
multiplied by the altitude factor of 1.30.

The  emission rates for  1985 and  later model  year vehicles  for  low  and
high  altitude   (at  SHED   standards of  3.0/4.0 grams/test)  are estimated
from  LDGV emission rates  for  the SHED standard  of  2.0  grams/test.   The
HDGV  emissions  are calculated  from  the LDGV  emissions and   the ratio of
the HDGV  standards  to  the  LDGV standard.   For example, since  the HDGV 3.0
grams/test standard is a  factor of 1.5 in comparison with  the  LDGV  2.0
grams/test standard,  the  assumption  is that  the ratio of  the emissions
will  be   the  same  as  the  ratio  of the   standards.   Therefore,  the
evaporative  emission rates for HDGV  3.0  gram  standard are  those for  the
LDGVs  multiplied  by  1.5.   Similarly, the   rates  for  HDGVs   4.0  gram
standard  are those for the LDGVs  multiplied  by 2.0.   This methodology is
used  to derive HDGV  evaporative  emission  rates,  for both  Indolene  and
commercial  fuels.   The  derived  two   ratios  are  then  weighted  by  their
respective GVW sales fractions  for  HDGV in  19871?, which  are estimated
to  be  81.5  percent for   the  under  14,000  Ib.  weight  classes  and  18.5
percent for  the over  14,000 Ib. weight classes.   No fuel injection sales
are  assumed  for  HDGVs.    The  resultant low  altitude emission  rates  are
3.62  grams for hot soak and 4.90  grams for diurnal on the Indolene fuel,
and 6.34  grams  for hot soak and 14.83 grams for  diurnal on the commercial
fuel.
     "Summary  and  Analysis   of   Comments  to  the  Notice  of  Proposed
     Rulemaking:  Evaporative  Emission Regulation and  Test Procedure for
     Gasoline-Fueled  Heavy-Duty   Vehicles,"   Standards  Development  and
     Support Branch, US EPA Docket #OMSAPC-79-l.

     "Historical  and  Projected  Emissions  Conversion  Factor  and  Fuel
     Economy for  Heavy-Duty  Trucks,  1962-2002," Energy and  Environmental
     Analysis,    Inc.,    prepared    for   Motor   Vehicle   Manufacturers
     Association, December 1983.

-------
                                   32
The derived  Indolene  fuel  evaporative emissions for  1985  and  later HDGVs
under different emission standards  (SHED  3.0,  SHED  4.0,  and SHED 3.0/4.0)
are  listed  in Table  15.  Additional  test data  were available  from  the
HDGV evaporative  emission  rulemaking.   These data  were  submitted by Ford
in  support  of a  proposed  3.0  gram standard  for  HDGVs  under  12,000  GVW
classes.  With inertia  test  weight settings between  6,250 to  7,000 Ibs.,
which are  equivalent  to GVW's  of  12,500  to  14,000 Ib.  HDGVs,  two F-350
vehicles  with  a  total  of  51  tests  had  an  average  total  Indolene
evaporative  emissions of  2.70 grams.   (Note,  from Table  15,  that  the
estimated total emissions for the  3.0  gram standard are  8.03 grams.)  Two
C-700  vehicles,   which  were  the  representative  vehicles  for  the  over
14,000  Ib. HDGV  classes, with 65  tests,  had  an average  total evaporative
emissions of 3.70 grams.   (The  estimated  total emissions for the 4.0 gram
standard  from Table  15  are  10.70  grams.)    These results   show  lower
emission  levels   in  comparison  with  the estimated  Indolene  rates  from
Table   15.    However,   since  these   results   were  submitted   to   be
representative of  vehicles  at certified  levels,  they are  expected  to be
lower than the in-use evaporative  emission rates.  Therefore,  the derived
Indolene  emission  rates  presented in  Table  15  are   considered  to  be
reasonable.

                                Table  15

            Low Altitude Indolene Evaporative Emissions (gms)
                        for 1985 and Later* HDGVs
           Standard

           SHED 3.0
           SHED 4.0
           SHED 3.0/4.0
Hot Soak

 3.41
 4.54
 3.62
Diurnal

 4.62
 6.16
 4.90
Total

 8.03
10.70
 8.52
    The proposed  Indolene emission rates  are  those for  the  SHED 3.0/4.0
    split standards.

-------
                                   33

The MOBILES commercial fuel  evaporative  emission  rates  for pre-1985 HDGVs
are derived from  the  Indolene rates (for example,  the  low altitude 18.08
grams  for  hot  soak  and  42.33  grams  for diurnal)  and  the  commercial  to
Indolene emission  ratios of  precontrolled  LDGVs  (1.53  for hot  soak  and
1.84  for  diurnal).    For   1985  and  later  years,  the  commercial  fuel
evaporative  emission  rates   for  the  HDGV  3.0/4.0 split   standards  are
derived  the  same way  as the  Indolene  rates, that  is,  scaled  from LDGV
emission rates  by the  ratio  of  HDGV and  LDGV  emission  standards,  then
weighted by  the HDGV GVW sales fractions.   Table 16 is a  summary  of  the
HDGV evaporative  emission  rates.  High  altitude  commercial fuel emission
rates are the low altitude rates multiplied by an altitude factor of 1.30.
                                Table 16

                  HDGV Evaporative Emission Rates (gms)

                                 Hot Soak                 Diurnal
Region        MYR Group   Indol.   Ratio   Comm.    Indol.  Ratio  Comm.

Low Altitude  pre-1985    18.08    1.53    27.66    42.33   1.84   77.89
              1985+        3:62             6.34     4.90          14.83

High Altitude pre-1985    23.50    1.53    35.96    55.03   1.84  101.26
              1985+        4.71             8.24     6.38          19.28

-------
                                    34

                              Attachment 1

               Summary of  Indolene  Evaporative Data Base*
                        Number of Vehicles Tested
                      (Including Tampered Vehicles)

Model          Low Altitude                             High Altitude
Year           Non-California        California         Non-California

Pre-1970               -                  102

1970                                       13
1971                   -                   21                 21
1972                   -                   20                 20
1973                   -                   20                 20

1975                   -                   20                 20
1977                  36                    -                 32
1978                  49                   50(50)             49
1979                  75                   49(49)             75

1980                   -                  100(61)             45
1981                 175                  157(43)             64
1982                  25                    -                  4
1983                  47                    -
Total                407                  552(203)           350
   Data obtained from CARB are indicated in parentheses.

-------
                                   35

                              Attachment 2

                        List of Tampered Vehicles

                                        Indolene
                           Mileage   Emissions (gms)
Tampering
Veh ID* MYR
Federal Region
4055 1981
MFC
GM
(Miles)
67,
375
Hot Soak Diurnal
1
.98
0
.70
Characteristic
Misrouted vacuum line
& missing gas cap
4086

4095
4143

4315

1981

1981
1981

1983

Ford

Ford
Toyota

Ford

74,

84,
63,

19,

475

454
747

286

2

10
9

0

.44

.89
.91

.36

4

10
1

7

.97

.73
.88

.82

Disconnected
line
vacuum

Missing canister
Disconnected
line
Disconnected
line
vacuum

vacuum

California Region
204

High
158

188

220

16
1980

Ford

5,

458

0

.94

14

.28

Disconnected
line
vacuum

Altitude Region
1980

1980

1980

1981
GM

GM

Toyota

GM
14,

12,

5,

6,
577

418

920

474
11

3

2

3
.37

.00

.70

.33
3

4

6

1
.75

.77

.29

.19
Disconnected
line
Disconnected
line
Disconnected
line
Disconnected
vacuum

vacuum

vacuum

vacuum
                                                           line
*   Only  one  Federal  vehicle  (#4315)  was  a  fuel-injected  vehicle,  all
    others were carbureted vehicles.

-------
                                   36

                              Attachment  3

         Low Altitude 1981 and Later LDGV Sample Distributions*
                          (Untampered Vehicles)

MYR                      Carbureted              Fuel-Injected

1981                       168(43)                    3(2)
1982                         0                       25(25)
1983                        11(10)                   35(35)

Total                      179(53)                   63(62)
*   Vehicles tested with both  Indolene  and  commercial fuels are indicated
    by parentheses.

-------
                                    37

                               Attachment  4

              Evaporative Emission Control System Diagnosis

                                               Number of Vehicles
Problem                               Carbureted              Fuel-Injected
Canister saturated with fuel*         18                      3
Canister broken                        1                      0
Canister filter dirty                  6                      0

Purge valve disconnected               1                      0
Purge valve leaked vacuum              5                      0
Purge valve was sticking              10                      0

Vacuum line plugged                    1                      0
Vacuum line damaged                    3                      0
Vent line damaged                      1                      1

Non-OEM gas cap                        1                      1
Inoperative vacuum control valve       7                      0

Overall**                             40                      5
*    Among these vehicles with saturated canisters, 20 were found to
     have purge control problems, such as sticking purge valves, etc-

**   Vehicles that had one or more problems.

-------
                                   38

                              Attachment 5

                       Fuel Injection Projections

To account  for different  hot  soak emission  rates due to  vehicles'  fuel
delivery  types,  it  is  necessary  to  use  sales  projections  on  fuel
injection for  LDGVs and  LDGTs.   The following  is  a summary of  the  fuel
injection  projections with all manufacturers combined.
VEH TYPE
LDGVs
LDGTls & LDGTZs
MYR Group

1981
1982
1983
1984

1985-86
1987-89
1990+

1981-83
1984
1985
1986

1987
1988-89
19901-
Percent of
Fuel Injection
Projection

 9.4
18.3
27.6
40.0

61.0
79.5
88.8

 0.0
16.0
32.0
48.0

62.0
79.5
88.8
The  LDGV projections-^  are  obtained  from  separate  estimations  on  1982,
1983, 1984,  1985,  1987,  and 1990 model years.   The  sales projections for
LDGTls  and   LDGT2s  combined^  are  obtained from  years  1983,  1987,  and
1995, with  the growth between  the  years of 1984  and 1987 assumed  to be
linear,   and the  same projections  as  LDGVs  assumed  for 1988 and  later
years.
     Letter  from  Energy and  Environmental  Analysis, Inc.  to  Phil Lorang
     of Technical Support Staff, November 28, 1983.

     Dana   Jones   and  LeRoy   H.   Lindgren,   "Automotive   Technological
     Projections Based  on  U.S.A. Energy  Conservation  Policies," December
     17, 1983.

-------