EPA-AA-TSS-85- 5

                  Technical Report
            Economic  Commission  for  Europe
              Inland  Transport Committee
  Group of  Experts on  the  Construction of Vehicles
 Group of Rapporteurs on Pollution and Energy (GRPE)
        Emissions of In-Use Vehicles:  Update
                on  the  U.S.  Experience
                          By

                   Philip A.  Lorang


                    September 1984
                        NOTICE

Technical  Reports  do  not  necessarily represent  final EPA
decisions  or  positions.   They  are  intended  to  present
technical   analysis   of   issues   using  data   which  are
currently  available.   The purpose  in the  release  of such
reports  • is   to  facilitate   the   exchange  of  technical
information   and   to   inform  the  public   of  technical
developments  which  may form  the  basis  \for  a  final EPA
decision, position or regulatory action.     • T\

               Technical Support Staff
         Emission Control Technology Division
               Office  of Mobile Sources
             Office of Air and Radiation
        U. S. Environmental Protection Agency

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1.   INTRODUCTION

This paper is an update  to  a  paper  transmitted for discussion
at  the  8th Session of  GRPE,  August-September  1983,  entitled
"New  Vehicle Regulation  and  Emissions  of  In-Use  Vehicles:
The  U.S.  Experience."    That paper  emphasized  the  results
which new  vehicle regulations  in the  U.S.  have  achieved  in
terms of  emissions from  vehicles  in general  use  by ordinary
motorists.

At  the  time  the  previous  paper  was  prepared,  the  U.S.
Environmental Protection  Agency  (EPA)  was reluctant  to  draw
conclusions  regarding  in-use  emissions of  hydrocarbons  (HC)
and carbon monoxide  (CO)  of  1981 and  newer  vehicles,  because
the available data were  limited to  low mileage vehicles.   In
the  interim, additional  data have  been  obtained  on  higher
mileage  vehicles  in  this   category.   This  paper  presents
information  on  these vehicles  and  describes  conclusions  EPA
has reached  regarding the likely  HC  and CO emissions of these
vehicles in  the  future.   EPA has also  revised its assessment
of  the   oxides   of   nitrogen   (NOx)   emissions  from  these
vehicles.  The new assessment is described.

EPA has  also adopted  a new conceptual  approach to assessment
of  emissions  of  in-use vehicles.    The  approach  seeks  to
isolate and  better quantify the  effects of tampering to major
emission control  subsystems and of  the improper introduction
of  leaded  fuel  into  catalyst-equipped vehicles".   ("Tampering"
refers  to  the removal,  disconnection,  or  other interference
with  the  proper  operation  of   a   subsystem.   Examples  are
removal  of  a catalytic  converter  or disconnection  of  a fuel
vapor hose.)  The  new  approach and some  of  its major results
are  described.   Further  observations  are also  made on  the
phenomena  of catalyst  tampering and  improper  use  of leaded
gasoline, which may be of interest  to countries contemplating
more  stringent  emission standards  and  fuel  lead  content
regulations.

2.   TESTING AND ANALYSIS OF  1981 AND NEWER VEHICLES

EPA conducts a continuing In-Use Emission Factor Surveillance
Program  which  borrows  vehicles  from  their  owners  and  tests
them with  the standard U.S.  emission test procedure.  Because
of  the  50%  reduction  in allowable  emissions  of NOx  in 1981
and the  resulting  major  change  in emission control technology
(introduction of  three-way catalytic  converters,and computer
controlled fuel mangement), 1981  and  newer vehicles have been
a  subject  of  intense   interest  to   EPA.   The  surveillance
program  began  testing  1981 vehicles  as soon  as  they  were in
the hands  of owners.  After  an -initial  period of recruiting
vehicles without respect  to accumulated service, EPA began to
solicit  and  test  vehicles which  had  accumulated  many  more
miles of service for their  chronological age than typical for

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                             -2-

passenger cars in the U.S.  This was  done  to  learn  more  about
the  durability and  emissions of  1981  vehicles  at  advanced
mileage  than  would  have  been  possible  to  learn  otherwise
except by the  passage of time.   In  the U.S.,  the   average  age
of a  passenger car  is  about 58,000  miles when weighted  for
vehicle use, and EPA was concerned  that  emissions at  that  age
and above might be  much different than  observed  from younger
vehicles.  EPA has  also been testing  1982  and  1983 vehicles,
necessarily  at  lower   mileages.    Table  1   displays   some
information about the numbers and mileages of vehicles tested
to date.
                                                              i
EPA  has  most  recently  completed a  test program phase  which
emphasized  1983  vehicles.   EPA  selected  for  testing  those
1983  models  which   represent emission  control  technologies
that EPA and  industry  sources predict will dominate  the U.S.
fleet  in  future model  years,  especially  new  fuel injection
applications.

Table  2  and  Figure 1  show  average   emissions  of  the  1981,
1982,  and  1983  vehicles  tested  by  EPA   and  their  average
accumulated mileage.  CO emission  data for the  1981  and 1982
vehicles are separated  into one  group which were certified to
meet the statutory  CO  emission standard of 3.4  gram  per mile
and  another  group  which received a  temporary - waiver  to  a CO
level  of  7.0  gram  per  mile  under  another provision of  the
U.S. Clean Air Act.

When  emission  levels  of  individual  model years are graphed
with  the  corresponding accumulated mileages  as in Figure 1,
an  increasing  trend  in emissions  with  mileage  is apparent.
There are three reasons why  this  apparent  trend should not be
taken  too quickly  as  the  true  trend  of emissions of  all
in-use 1981 and newer vehicles:

     1.    EPA has confirmed  that the sample  of test vehicles
           used  in  the surveillance  program  described  here
           contains fewer cases of  tampering  and improper use
           of  leaded  gasoline  than   does the  corresponding
           vehicle.population as a whole.  This underrepresen-
           tation  is caused  by  the  reluctance of  owners of
           such vehicles to lend them  to EPA for testing.
                                            V
     2.    The 1981, 1982, and 1983 vehicles  tested by EPA do
           not  represent   exactly   the  various   mixes   of
           emission control system types that will  be sold in
           later model  years.

     3.    It  is more accurate to examine  the relationship of
           emissions to mileage  within each model  year,  than
           to  simply compare model years as in Figure 1.

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                             -3-

For  these  reasons, EPA  has used  another  method  to  estimate
in-use  emissions  of  1981  and  newer  vehicles.   The  method
first estimates  the emissions  of vehicles that  have  not been
subjected to certain severe forms  of  tampering  or  to improper
use  of  leaded  gasoline.  For  this purpose, EPA  believes  the
data from  the  surveillance  program are  adequate.   Second,  an
estimate of  the  additional  or  excess emissions  caused  by  the
previously  excluded severe forms  of  tampering  and  by  the
improper use of leaded  gasoline are estimated  and  added  to
the  first  value.  These  two  steps will be  briefly described
and the results presented in the next two sections.

3.   EMISSIONS  OF  VEHICLES   NOT   SUBJECT   TO   TAMPERING   OR
     IMPROPER USE OF LEADED FUEL

Estimating the  emissions from current  technology  vehicles  is
relatively  straight forward  when  adequate  in-use  test data
are  available.   Typically a trend  in the emission  levels  of
the  vehicles  versus   age  (usually  measured  in  accumulated
mileage) can be determined and  used to predict  the emission
levels  of  in-use vehicles.   When  in-use data  are inadequate
or  have  only  a  small   mileage  range  a  modeling  approach
becomes necessary to predict emission levels.

An  important consideration in  estimating   the  emissions  of
future  model years  is  the type  of  technology used to control
emission   levels.   Starting   in   1981,  for   example,   most
passenger vehicles produced in the  U.S.  began  using feed back
control  or  "closed-loop"  systems  to   control  the  air/fuel
mixture.   At the same  time EPA  parameter  control regulations
limited   the    in-use    adjustability   of   certain    engine
parameters.   Both  of   these  changes  have  had  significant
effects on the  in-use  emission performance  of  the newer model
years.

A  major new  trend in  technology  that  is   likely to  have  a
significant   effect  on  in-use   emission   levels   is  the
increasing use  of  fuel  injection.   As  can  be  seen  in  Figure
2, EPA  estimates that  use  of  fuel injection in  future model
years will approach 90%  of  passenger cars by"1990.   Figure 3
shows that changes  in  catalyst  type  will accompany the-trend
towards  fuel  injection, with  fewer vehicles  receiving  an
oxidation  catalyst in   addition  to  the three-way  catalyst.
Fuel injected vehicles can  be  expected  on engineering grounds
to   have   different    emission   characteristics''   than  the
carbureted vehicles common  today.   These differences include
lower   evaporative  emissions   due   to  the  elimination   of
carburetor  float bowls,  lower  cold  start  emissions due  to
elimination  of  mechanical  and  electrical  problems  of  the
choke mechanism, and fewer'instances of catastrophic emission
control failure which still allows  the vehicle to be driven.

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                             -4-

EPA  has  used  a  simple  regression  of   the  emission ' levels
versus  mileage for  all  of the  pre-1981  model years.   The
emissions  data  set  available  from  these  vehicles  is  of
sufficient  size  and  mileage  range  to  produce  acceptable
estimates.   However,   for   1981  and  later model  years,  the
significant  changes  in  technology  and  the lack of  emission
data over  a  wide  mileage range have  caused EPA to  develop a
model  to  account  for  all  of  the  factors EPA  believes  will
affect the emission behavior of these vehicles.

For  the   analysis,   all  obviously   tampered   or   misfueled
vehicles  in  the data  base  were  removed.   EPA  believes  that
tampered  and misfueled vehicles are  not properly  represented
in  the vehicle 'test  samples   since  the  testing  program  is
voluntary.   The  excess  emissions   in   the  fleet  caused  by
tampering  and  misfueling  are calculated separately.   This
calculation is described in Section 4.0.

Since  technology trends  show  that the mix of  technologies is
changing  rapidly,  the  existing emission  data set  from  1981
and   newer   vehicles   is   divided    into   four  ' separate
technologies.  These are:

     --Closed-Loop Carbureted with Any 3-way Catalyst
     —Closed-Loop Fuel Injected with Any  3-way Catalyst
     --All Open-Loop with Any 3-way Catalyst
     —All Oxidation Catalyst Only

The  results  from  the  analysis  of each  of these technologies
can  then  be  weighted  together  to represent any  predicted mix
of the  technologies.   The explanation  following  concerns the
treatment of a single technology.

For  purposes of predicting  HC and CO emissions,  the vehicles
from one  technology are  divided into  three  strata  based  on
emission  levels.    The  lowest  stratum  contains  the  large
majority  of  the  vehicles.   It  was  defined  to include  all
vehicles  emitting  less  than 1.5  gram/mile of  the HC  (compared
to. the 0.41 allowable  level) and  less than 20  gram/mile of CO
(compared  to  the   3.4  or 7.0  allowable level).  Despite  the
rather high limits, the  vast majority of cars  in this stratum
were found to  emit very  close  to  their allowable levels.   The
average emissions  of  cars  in  this  stratum as a .function  of
mileage was estimated by simple least-squares' regression.

The  next, or  middle,  stratum  was  defined  as  including  all
remaining  vehicles except  for four  vehicles with  extremely
high emission  levels.   This  stratum  was kept  separate  from
the  previous stratum for  two reasons.   First,  vehicles in the
lower group generally  passed  the type of  emission  short test
used in the  U.S.  for  annual inspections of in-use  vehicles.

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                             -5-

Vehicles  in this  middle group  commonly  failed these  short
tests.    Keeping   the   two  strata   separate   allowed   the
subsequent  estimation of  the benefits  of  annual  inspection
programs.   Second,  to use just one  stratum encompassing  both
groups  would  be  to  assume  that  the  available test  sample
represented the relative  frequency of  occurrence of these two
vehicle  types  at  all mileages.   EPA's hypothesis was  that to
the  contrary  the  relative  sizes  of  these  two  groups  would
vary  with mileage,  with the middle or  malfunctioning  group
accelerating  in  size  at  the expense  of the  lower,  properly
functioning group.   In fact, this hypothesis  was verified by
analysis  of  the  available data  in the range of  zero  to about
65,000   miles,  and  EPA   extrapolated   the  pattern   in  a
piece-wise  linear manner to  higher  mileages.   The  average
emission  level of vehicles  in the middle  stratum was assumed
to be a  constant  independent  of mileage, equal to the average
of the vehicles tested.

The   third,   or   upper   stratum,   consisted  of   only   four
vehicles.   These  vehicles  had  emission  levels much  higher
than  those  of the  next  highest  emitting vehicles,  and   were
clearly  in  a different class  of malperformance.   EPA chose to
assume  that the  number  of  such vehicles  would  increase   with
mileage  but  at   a  comparatively  slower  rate.   The  average
emission  level of the tested vehicles  was assumed  to apply
independently  of mileage.

There were  no  fuel  injected  vehicles tested which were in the
upper stratum  and only a single fuel  injected vehicle in the
middle stratum.   However, all the  fuel injected vehicles  were
still at low  mileage,  and  EPA was  unwilling to  assume   that
the  absence   of   higher  emitting  vehicles  would  continue
indefinitely.  Therefore, EPA estimated  the population of the
middle and  upper  strata for  the  fuel  injection technology by
reasoning backwards  from observation  of carbureted vehicles.
That  is,  fuel  injected vehicles  were  assumed  to   be   like
carbureted  vehicles   except  that  carbureted   vehicles   were
eliminated  for this  purpose  if  they  had malperformances which
engineering  analysis  showed  could  not   occur  with   fuel
injection.

Once  the sizes and average  HC  and CO emission  levels of all
three  strata  for  one  technology  were  estimated . from  the
available data, they  were arithmetically combined,A in a simple
fashion  to  arrive at  a prediction  for  the average emissions
of  all  in-use vehicles of  that  technology  (excluding  the
effects  of  tampering and improper use of  leaded fuel).   This
average  depends on mileage, of course.

For NOx,  there appeared to  be no  advantage to separation  into
strata,  and each  technology was  therefore represented  by a
single regression line  of NOx emissions  versus mileage.'- •   •

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                             -6-

Once  emission  levels   of  the  four  technologies  have  been
estimated,  they are weighted  together  for  each  model  year
using historical and forecasted sales fractions.  The  result
is the overall  estimate of in-use  emissions  from all  vehicles
sold  in  the  U.S.   in  a  given  model  year,  but without  the
effects  of  tampering   and  misfueling.   Figure  4  shows  the
results for selected model years.  As  can  be  seen,  the  shifts
in  technology  mix  have  a  small  but  discernable  impact  on
predicted emissions.

4.   EXCESS  EMISSIONS  DUE TO TAMPERING AND  IMPROPER  USE  OF
     LEADED FUEL

The  estimates  of emissions presented  thus far  were  prepared
by  first  removing  vehicles   from  EPA's data  base  which  had
evidence  of  certain  types  of  tampering  to  the  emission
control   system  or   of  improper   use   of   leaded   fuel.
Specifically,  vehicles  with  evidence of  catalyst  removal,
interference  with  the  positive crankcase  ventilation  system
(PCV) causing  release   of  crankcase  vapors,  disconnection  of
the   cannister   used   to   store   evaporative   emissions,
disconnection or removal  of  the air pump  system, or  habitual
misfueling were  removed.   (Habitual  misfueling means  improper
use  of  leaded  fuel  over   a  long  enough  period  to  have
permanent  and  substantial adverse  impact  on  the  catalyst.)
While  there were  some  such  vehicles  in   EPA's owner-loaned
test sample,  there  were fewer than EPA has  reason  to believe
are present in  the  U.S.  fleet as  a whole.   Vehicles with only
other   forms   of   tampering   such   as   electrical   wire
disconnections  were  retained,  as  these  problems  are  more
likely to  have  been inadvertant and owner  reluctance to lend
vehicles to EPA should be much less.

Having  removed  these   vehicles  from   the  data  base  before
calculating the  results displayed in Figure  4,  EPA  needed to
add  back  to the emission  estimates  the additional  or  excess
emissions  caused  by   the  true  incidences  of  tampering  and
misfueling in the U.S.  fleet.

Figure 5  shows EPA's  estimates of  the  incidence or  rate  of
each  of  the  six types  of  tampering/misf ueling in  the  U.S.
fleet.   These  estimates are  derived from  observations  of
vehicles  in a  survey  performed  by  EPA  in '-approximately  10
cities  per  year.   In  this  survey,  vehicles';rare ' randomly
selected  from the  traffic  flow  and ordered  to pull  to  the
roadside,   where   technicians   examine   the   vehicles   for
tampering and misfueling.  Under.  U.S.  law,  owners  may decline
this inspection, but in practice  virtually all  consent to it
so  the  representativeness of the  sample   is  believed  to  be
good.

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                             -7-

Figure  5  shows  that  tampering   and   misfueling   are  more
frequent  among  vehicles  which have  accumulated more  miles,
i.e.,  those   that   are  older.    Since  age   and   year   of
manufacture  are  related,  it  is  .not  entirely  certain  which
factor is the more  important.   U.S.  automobile companies have
stated their belief that  progressively  better vehicle designs
will  be  less  subject   to   tampering   and   misfueling.   At
present,  EPA  assumes  that age  is  responsible for all  of  the
effect  shown  in   Figure  5.   Figure  5   also  shows  that
light-duty  trucks  are much  more  frequently   tampered  than
passenger cars of the  same age.  Although used  primarily  for
personal  transportation,   the  same  as  passenger  cars,  the
popular wisdom in the  U.S.  is that light  trucks are commonly '
owned   by   persons   less   willing   to  accept   government
restrictions.   Because  of  the  small   number   of  light-duty
trucks in the survey sample,  a separate regression  on mileage
was not considered reliable.

The  rates of catalyst  removal and habitual  misfueling shown
in Figure 5  are  unfortunately high.   At  the average  age of
catalyst  passenger  vehicles,  they are about  7  percent  and 13
percent,  respectively.   About  one-half  of the  vehicles from
which catalysts  have  been  removed  have also been  misfueled,
so the combined rate is 16  to 17  percent.   Vehicle owners who
intend to misfuel may  remove their  catalysts  believing that
their vehicles will be further damaged  if they  do  not  remove
them.   However,   these  owners are  probably misinformed  or
overly  cautious.    EPA has   no  reason  to  believe   that  any
significant  number  of  catalysts are  being  plugged  because of
lead residues, even though  most misfueled  vehicles have their
catalysts present throughout  the misfueling experience.

The  rates of air  pump disablement  and  EGR system disablement
are  also  high.   Roughly  one-half  of  U.S.   vehicles  are  not
equipped  with  air  pumps,  so  the  rate in the U.S.  fleet as  a
whole is  about one-half that  shown  in  the figure.   Virtually
all  U.S  vehicles have  EGR,  but  fortunately nearly  all U.S.
cities  have  acceptable  nitrogen  dioxide  air  quality   levels
despite the  high rate  of  EGR tampering.  The rates of PCV and
evaporative  cannister  disablement  are very  low,   which  is
expected  since  the- nonparasitic  nature  of   these  systems is
such that owners have  no  reason to expect  any fuel economy or
performance  inprovement from  disabling  them.  v
                                                 • *-\
EPA  has found  that  vehicles with one  type  of tampering often
have multiple  types.   Therefore,  the  number  of vehicles with
some form of tampering is  less than the sum of the separate
rates in  Figure  5.  This pattern  has  been  accounted  for in
EPA's calculations and is reflected in  subsequent figures.

Figure  6  shows  EPA's   estimates  of  the  emissions   increases
that  occur  with each form  of  tampering/misfueling.''  < -(THC

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                             -8-

denotes  total  .hydrocarbons  including  nonreactive  methane.
Data not presented show  that nearly  all  of  the increase shown
for  total  hydrocarbons  is  in  species  other  than  methane.)
These  estimates  are  developed  from  testing  vehicles  in  a
properly operating condition and then  again with tampering or
misfueling  present.   Figure  6  is  for  closed-loop  three-way
catalyst  vehicles.   The  earlier  oxidation-catalyst  vehicles
tend  to  have  larger   effects  from   catalyst  removal  and
misfueling, but these are not shown.

Figure 7  shows  the net  effect  of  all  the  forms  of tampering
and misfueling combined,  with correct  accounting for multiple
instances   on   one  vehicle.    Since   tampering   rates  for
individual  components  increase  sharply  with  vehicle mileage,
so  does  the  overall   excess   for   each  pollutant.   These
excesses must be  added  to the emissions  shown  in  Figure 4 to
give total in-use emissions.

Given  the  high rates  of catalyst  removal  and  misfueling as
shown  in  Figure  5 and  their  large impact  on emissions as
shown  in  Figure  6,  one  would expect them  to  be  a  large  part
of  the  total excess  shown in  Figure  7  as being due  to  all
tampering and misfueling  combined.   This  is the case.   Figure
8 shows the percentage contributions of  individual tampering
types  to   the   excess   emissions   at   50,000   miles.    The
contributions are nearly the same at other  mileages.

Because catalyst  removal and misfueling  have been recognized
by  EPA as  important concerns for  some years,  EPA  has  sought
to  determine why  they  happen.   EPA  has  questioned  vehicle
owners,  and EPA  pays  attention to statements  made  in  the
automotive repair and hobby press.   The  most important  reason
is  the price difference  between  leaded and  unleaded  fuel in
the  U.S.,  which   has   usually  been  in the  range  of  U.S.
$0.04-0.06  per  U.S.  gallon.  The  immediate  savings  from  use
of  leaded   fuel  are obvious  to  price-conscious  buyers,  and
most owners  are less aware  of the  fact that maintenance costs
increase with  use of  leaded  fuel.   Other  countries  would be
well advised to consider ways of avoiding  the  incentive of a
large price difference in favor of leaded fuel.

Performance  is  the next  reason  motivating vehicle  owners to
misfuel.   Some, vehicles  have octane  requirements in excess of
the octane  provided by regular  unleaded  fuel';   These are  the
only  vehicles  which   should  be  expected  to  . give  improved
performance  on  leaded fuel,  which   has  higher octane  in  the
U.S.  than  unleaded.    (Even  owners of  these  vehicles  are
purchasing  leaded fuel  for price   reasons,  since  a  premium
grade  of  unleaded  fuel  is widely  available  in  the   U.S.)
However,   many  owners   seem  to  believe   they  get   better
performance  from  their vehicles when  using  leaded  fuel  even

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                             -9-

when  knock  is not  present when  operating  on  unleaded  fuel.
Many  also  believe that  leaded  gasoline contains  more  energy
per  gallon and  that  fuel economy  is  improved  with  leaded
gasoline.

Misfueling  tends  to  become  habitual.   About  one-half  of
leaded  fuel  purchased for misfueling  is purchased  by  owners
who  misfuel  over  90%  of the  time.   These owners  comprise
about  4  percent  of  all  vehicle  owners.   A larger  number  of
owners misfuel less often.

5.   NET EMISSIONS FROM  IN-USE 1981 AND NEWER VEHICLES

The U.S. paper at the 8th session included illustrations that
showed how the progressively more stringent new car standards
in  the  U.S.  have  achieved  lower  and  lower   emissions  from
passenger  vehicles   in  service.   These  figures  have  been
updated  and  are  presented here  as Figures  9,  10 and  11 for
HC, CO,  and NOx  emissions respectively.  The  lines  in these
figures  are   total   emissions   including  the   effects  of
tampering and misfueling.

The  figures   show  that  succeedingly  more  stringent  emission
standards   have    achieved    progressively   better   in-use
performance.   In   addition,   the   evolution   of  technology
following  stabilization  of the  HC  and NOx  standards  in 1981
and of  the  CO standard  in 1983  is predicted to lead to still
lower emissions, although  only slightly.

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                                   -10-
                                  Table 1



               1981 and Newer In-Use Vehicles Tested by EPA*
Model
Year
1981
1982
1983




Number of
Vehicles
Tested
852
143
117


Model
Year N
1981 408
444
852
1982 28
115
143
Distribution of
Mean
Mileage
28,506
9,763
17,771

Emissions
CO
Standard
3.4
7.0
Both
3.4
7.0
Both
0-25,000
475
129
92
Table
Vehicles
By Mileage
25,000-50,000 50,000-75,000 75,000
202
10
25
2


144 - 31
3 1
0 0

of 1981 and Newer Vehicles*
Mean
Mileage
30,168
26,978
28,506
5,880
10,709
9,763
Mean Emissions (gram per mile)
HC
0.60
0.63
0.62
0.27
0.31
0.30
CO
7.37
8.67
8.04
2.51
4.03
3.73
NOx
0.84
0.85
0.84
0.60
0.71
0.69
       1983
117
3.4
17,771
0.37
3.46
0.73
*As of August 10, 1984

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                      FIGURE lv

Light-Duty Passenger Vehicle Emissions
              Exhaust Hydrocarbon Emissions
    too
    0.79
    0.90
    0.29
    0.00
0.0
     10.0
 i  1.0-
  8
  fc
     4.0
     2.0-
     0.0
       0.0
     ISO
     t2S
     too
    0.79
    0.50
    0.29
    0.00-
                               1M1
                    IMS
             IM2
        10.0
                        20.0       30.0      40.0
                           In Thousands Of MD«s
                Carbon Monoxide Emissions
                              IMI
                                 •
                                IMI
     "MY"
     •
     IM2
IMI
               10.0      20.0       JO.O      40.0
                 Vshldt MIlMg* In Thousands Of Mites
                Oxides Of Nitrogen Emissions
                               IM1
                    IMS
             IM2
       0-0       10.0       20.0      30.0
                Vthlcte MtkMo* In Thousands Of Mfl*s
                                                      0.41 MC STDl
                                                  JO.O
                               ^^|».4 CO STOl
                                           90.0
                                                     •M.O HOl »TO|
                                           90.0

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                                -12-
PERCENT
100
                           FIGURE 2,
                       Fuel System
                                        MULTi-POINT
                                      FUEL INJECTION
                                 THROTTLE-BODY
                                 FUEL INJECTION
                Closed Loop Carburetor
   1982
1989    199Q

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                             -13-
                         FIGURE3.

                   Catalyst System
PERCENT

100'
 80-
60-
40-
                                 3-Way Catalyst
20-
  1982
              1      i
1983   1984   1985    1986
1987    1988   1989    1990

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                            FIGURE 4,

     In-Use Emission Levels of  1981 & Newer Vehicles
Not Subject to Tampering or Improper Use of Leaded Fuel
          1                 (By Model Year)
               0.75-
               0.50-
               0.25
               0.00
                  0.0
                      Exhaust Hydrocarbon Emissions
                        MJ.O     20.0     30.0     40.0
                        Vehicle Mileage In Thousands Of Miles
                                                       MODEL YR
                                                        1981
                                                        t»82	

                                                        1983	

                                                        1984-1986 _

                                                        1987 «t Lfl*»f
                                                    SO.O
                        Carbon Monoxide Emissions
                        10.0     20.0     30.0     40.0
                        Vehicle Mileage In Thousands Of Miles
                                                    SO.O
                1.25-
                1.00-
                0.75-
               0.50-
               0.25-
                       Oxides Of Nitrogen Emissions
                  0.0
                        10.0     20.0    30.0     «0.0
                        Vehicle Mileage In Thousands Cf Miles
90.0

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                                     FIGURE 5,
  Rates  of  Tampering And  Improper Use of Leaded Fuel
      Rate of Air Pump Disablements
           -.  Versus Mileage
     o" i " i  i  «   »   •  *  •  *  *
       Vihide Mileage In 10.000 Mil* Increments
          Rate of Catalyst Removal
              Versus Mileage
     OI2J4S»7S»10
       Vehicle Mileage In K>.000 Mil* Increments
       Rate of EGR System Disablement
              Versus Mileage
          Rate of Habitual MisfueTmg
               Versus Mileage
        Vehicle Mileage In 10.000 Mile hcrements
      OI234»*?8tM
        Vehicle Mileage In 10.000 Mile Increments
    Rate of Evaporative Canister Disablement
               Versus Mileage
  21
  20
•5  "^
         Vehici* Milage In 10,000 Mile hcremenrs
                                                    20-
•5  "1
                                                    5-
        Rate of PCV System Disablement
               Versus Mileage
       OI2J4S«7»»IO
         Vehicle Mileogvln 10.000 Mile kicrements

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                                       FIGURE 6,
3.0
JO)

3   2.5- —
 E   2.0-

6
 c
.0   1.5- —
 u>
*E
Ul
 x   1.0 H
o
O  0.5	
0.0
                  Average Effects of Tampering And Improper Use of
                      Leaded Fuel On A 1981 or Later 3WC Vehicle
           PCV    Evaporative    Air
          System    Canister     Pump
                                                                    Emissions
                                                                      GZ3 THC
                                                                      C3 CO
                                                                      ca NOX
                                         Improper Use  Catalyst       CGR
                                          Of Leaded   Re'moval      System
                                             Fuel
- -20.0
                                                                                       30.0
                                                                                 -25.0
                                                                                        0)
                                                                                        O
                                                                                  -15.0
                                                                                        C
                                                                                        o
                                                                                  -10.0  -F
                                                                                        O
                                                                                        o
                                                                                  -5.0
                                                                                       0.0

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                          FIGURE 7,
 Excess Emission Levels for  1981 & Newer Vehicles
Due to Tampering And Improper Use of Leaded Fuel
                    Excess Total Hydrocarbon Emissions
                0.5
                0.*
                0.3
              i"
                        10      20     30    40    90
                       Vehicle Mileage In Thousands Of Miles
                    Excess Carbon Monoxide Emissions
                 J-
               8
               t '
                        <0      20     30     40
                       Vehicle Mileage In Thousands Of Miles
                   Excess Oxides Of Nitrogen Emissions
               0.5
               0.4
               0.3-
             6*
             i
               0.2-
               0.0
                       W     20     30     40
                      Vehicle Mileage In Thousands Of Miles
                                               90

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                    FIGURE 8,
 Excess Emission Levels for 1981 & Newer Vehicles
Due to Tampering And Improper Use of Leaded Fuel
  Total Hydrocarbons
                              Carbon Monoxide
     Oxides of Nitrogen

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                             -19-
   15
o>
Q.
to

2
o
to
c
o
'to
fto

LJ
O
   10-
    5-
                           Pre-Control
                                1972-:
                                1975-1979
           10    20    30    40    SO   60    70   80    90

               Vehicle Mileage In Thousands Of Miles
                                               K

                Figure 9   - Hydrocarbon (HC) Emissions
                of In-Use Passenger Vehicles Produced
                Under U.S. Emissions Standards
                                                              1980

                                                              1981
                                                              1983
                                                              1990
                                                             100

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                              -20-
    110
   100-
    90-
5  80 H
 E
o
O
O
    70-
    60-
c
•§  50 H
    40-
    30-
    20-
     10-
           .990
                 Pre-Gontrol
                    1972-1974
            10   20    30   40    50    60    70    80    90
                Vehicle Mileage In Thousands Of Miles
                                                                1981
                                                                1983
                                                                1990
                                                                1980
                                                             100
                  Figure 10 - Carbon Monoxide (CO) .Emissions of
                  In-Use Passenger Vehicles Produced Under U.S.
                  Emissions Standards

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                                -21-
    3-
s
o
w
C  2
O
.


UJ

X

o
    1-
               Pre-Control
1973-197



     1975-1976
           10    20    30    40    50   60    70   80

               Vehicle Mileage In Thousands Of Miles
                                           90   100
               Figure 11 - Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)  Emissions

               of In-Use Passenger Vehicles Produced,.,JJnder

               U.S.  Emissions Standards

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