EPMOO/9-7M01
              THE CLEAN All ICT  MD
           THJIHSPBRTIITIBH  CBHTHBLS

                 IR EPA WHITE  PAPER
                       OFFICE  OF AIR

              AND WATER PROGRAMS

                ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                       WASHINGTON, B.C 20460
                              AUGUST 1973

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                                               EPA-400/9-74-001
THE CLEAN AIR ACT AND TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS

                   AN EPA WHITE PAPER



                               by



                         John Holmes

                         Joel Horowitz

                         Robert Reid
                         Paul Stolpman
     U. S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
         OFFICE OF AIR AND WATER PROGRAMS
                     WASHINGTON,  D. C.
                          August 1973
 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price 90 cents

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      THE CLEAN AIR ACT AND TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS:
                      AN EPA WHITE PAPER
INTRODUCTION

    The proposal of transportation control plans formulated to bring the

air quality of our major urban areas into compliance with the mandates

of the Clean Air Act has created considerable public concern about the

social and economic implications of these controls.  The purpose of this

paper is to analyze the impact and feasibility of key components of the

plans being proposed and to  examine the relationship between the

implementation of a set of feasible transportation controls and the

attainment of the air quality standards.  The important inspection/

maintenance and hardware retrofit approaches to motor vehicle emissions

control are described in Sections A and B of this paper, and estimates of

their  effectiveness and costs are presented.  Measures designed to con-

trol emissions through reducing auto use, such as improved mass transit,

are discussed in Section C.  In Section D the various individual control

measures are related to actual transportation control plans.  The effects

on air quality of the combinations of control measures are assessed,  and

several significant sources of  uncertainty in our forecasts of the.air

quality impact of transportation controls are identified.

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BACKGROUND


    The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 directed EPA to set national


air quality standards -which would protect the public health and welfare


from the known effects of the major air pollutants.  In 1971,  such air


quality  standards were established for six pollutants, including the four


primarily associated with motor vehicles, i. e. ,  carbon monoxide (CO),


nitrogen dioxide (NO2),  photochemical oxidant (OX),  and hydrocarbons (HC),


Hydrocarbons are reactants in the formation of oxidants and at ambient


concentrations have no known health effects.


    The standards for the motor vehicle related  pollutants have been


exceeded in a number of our major urban areas.   Out of the  247 Air


Quality Control Regions (AQCR's)  in the United States,  in the period


1970-1971 54  regions exceeded the air quality standard for oxidant,


29 exceeded  the carbon monoxide standard and 2  exceeded the nitrogen


dioxide standard (under the old monitoring technique it was believed


that 47  AQCR's exceeded the NO2 standard). In all,  58 AQCR's repre-


senting nearly 55 percent of the nation's population exceeded the ambient


air quality standards for one or more of these pollutants (see Appendix A).

                                                         «
    The Environmental Protection Agency's plan to achieve  the air


quality  standards on a national basis includes the implementation of

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controls on stationary sources (power plants,  industrial facilities and




general area sources), the Federal new car emissions standards and




in-use vehicle emissions controls.  The anticipated reductions in




pollutant concentrations resulting from the implementation of stationary




source controls and new vehicle emissions standards are projected to




reduce the number of AQCR's exceeding the air quality standards to 29




by 1975 (see Table 7).  These include approximately 40 percent of the




nation's  population.




     Having controlled the emissions from stationary sources and new




vehicles to the extent possible,  those States containing the AQCR's still




projected to exceed the air quality standards will be required to imple-




ment appropriate transportation controls (i.e. , controls of in-use




vehicles) to meet the requirements of the Clean Air Act.  The control




of emissions from these vehicles is essential because although motor




vehicles are not the only source of HC, CO and NOX emissions, they are




the primary source of these pollutants in our urban areas.  Table 1 shows




the general range of relative contributions of emission sources  in our




urban areas.

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                              TABLE 1

        MIX OF EMISSION SOURCES IN  URBAN AREAS - 1971

                                      Percent of Total Emissions
Pollutant                      Automobiles  Trucks,  Buses    Stationary
                                            & Motorcycles    Sources

   CO                           77-87           8-10            3-15

   HC                           50-65           5-10           25-45

   NOX                          40-50           8-13           37-52


    The data clearly indicate the importance of automotive emission con-

trols.  The Federal new car emissions standards, particularly for cars

produced in 1975 and beyond, will go a long way towards reducing the role

of the automobile in the pollution of our cities.  In many urban areas

presently exceeding the air quality standards, the  reduction in new car

emissions  alone will eventually bring regional air  quality  within the

standards.  However,  there are other regions which must look to trans-

portation controls as a long run complement to the Federal new car

emissions  standards,  because reductions in new car emissions alone will

never bring the achievement of the air quality standards.  In either case,

the full impact of the new car standards will not be realized for some

time.  Vehicle population growth, in-use vehicle deterioration and the

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slowness of vehicle turnover greatly reduce the impact of these standards




in the time period of the mandated attainment of the air quality standards.




For example, relative to 1972, automotive CO and HC emissions will be




reduced by only about 35% by 1975 and 50% by 1977.  Therefore a reduc-




tion in the emissions of vehicles presently on the road are key to the




efforts to meet the requirements of the Clean Air Act.







EMISSIONS CONTROL TECHNIQUES




    The control of in-use vehicle emissions generally takes three




forms:




    A.   The retrofitting of vehicles with systems or devices which




directly reduce exhaust  emissions.




    B.   The inspection  and maintenance of vehicles to ascertain and




maintain adequate emissions performance.




    C.   The reduction of vehicle miles travelled through the use of




traffic controls, mass transit, parking taxes, etc.







    A.  Retrofit Devices




        A retrofit approach can be defined as the addition of any device




or system and/or  any modification or adjustment made on a motor vehicle




after its initial manufacture to achieve a reduction in emissions.  The

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retrofit packages most commonly discussed for use in light duty vehicles


include:

         1.   Vacuum Spark Advance Disconnect (VSAD) with Lean Idle


             Two basic engine modifications employed by the motor


vehicle manufacturers  in meeting Federal exhaust emissions  standards


have been the leaning of air/fuel ratios and the modification of ignition


(spark) timing.  Therefore,  the modification of these parameters in


pre-controlled (pre-1968) vehicles should reduce exhaust emissions.


Because 1968 and newer vehicles have utilized these modifications to some


extent to meet Federal emissions standards, this retrofit technique is


considered to be applicable primarily to  pre-controlled vehicles, but not


to approximately 10% of those pre-controlled vehicles which do not employ


vacuum spark advance.


             Low mileage EPA tests of this system indicate average


emissions reductions of 25% for HC, 9%  for CO and 23% for NO., from  a
                                                             Ji

tuned baseline.  Durability data developed by General Motors over 25,000


miles without maintenance show no deterioration in the reduction of HC


and NOX over time, but do show approximately a 20% deterioration for CO.

                                                         •
             The initial cost of purchase and installation of this  system,


which is commercially available,  is estimated to be $20.  Device

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maintenance can probably be limited to an annual readjustment of the




idle air/fuel ratio and would cost about $5. 00.  A minor fuel economy




reduction of approximately 2% is  associated with the ignition timing




adjustment achieved by this retrofit technique.  This would increase




vehicle operating costs about $. 60 per 1, 000 miles  of operation.




         2.  Air Bleed to the Intake System




             Many devices have been designed to introduce, by one means




or another, excess  air into the intake  system of a vehicle.  The  effect is




one of reducing HC  and CO levels,  possibly with some small increase




in NOX levels.  The reductions achieved vary directly with the amount of




air allowed into the intake system.   This technique is applicable to some




extent to all light duty vehicles,  but because of the relatively lean  air/




fuel ratios on controlled vehicles the technique is primarily applicable




to pre-controlled vehicles.




             Tests  conducted on this system for EPA indicate an expected




reduction of 21% for HC,  58% for CO and 5% for NOV.  Durability data  on
                                                  Ji



the system are not adequate for judging the performance of this control




technique over time.




             The installed cost of the  air bleed system tested  for EPA




is estimated to lie in the  range $56 to  $64.  A fuel  economy improvement

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                                   8




of 4% is associated with the use of this device which would reduce operating




costs by $1. 20 per 1, 900 miles of operation.




         3.   Oxidation Catalyst




             Because of the automotive industry commitment to the use




of catalysts in meeting future federal emission standards, it follows that




catalyst systems are being identified as retrofit candidates as well.




Catalyst retrofits are applicable to cars capable of running adequately




and without excessive engine wear on a commercially available lead free




gasoline.   Our best  estimate of the proportion of cars to which catalytic




systems are applicable is 20% of pre-1971 and 75% of 1971-1974 model




year vehicles.




             Low mileage emissions tests conducted for EPA  showed




mean emissions  reductions of  68% for  HC, 63% for CO and 48% for NOX




for  catalyst systems (plus VSAD) installed on 11 pre-controlled vehicles.




Emissions tests  on a fleet of ears being run by the State of California




show low mileage reductions of 70% for HC,  70% for  CO and 14% for NOX




for  controlled cars equipped with air pumps.  Tests on cars without air




pumps showed very  unsatisfactory results.




             The durability  data generated for catalyst retrofit systems




are limited and the results are mixed.  No firm conclusions on retrofit

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catalyst durability can be drawn at this time.  The fleet test in California




should provide a great deal of useful data on catalyst durability as the




test progresses.




             Estimates  of the cost to be borne by the consumer for a




catalyst retrofit package will vary according to the type and age of the




consumer's vehicle,  and the organizational structure selected for retro-




fit installation.   With an installation program run in State-owned  (or




franchised) inspection and installation centers, the average initial cost




would be approximately $125.  However; with an installation program




designed to make use of traditional distribution channels and local service




establishments,  the initial price could rise to well over $300.   The fuel




penalty of  catalyst systems is negligible (perhaps 1%).




             Retrofit packages similar to those discussed above for




light duty vehicles are also potentially applicable for heavy duty vehicles




and motorcycles.  However,  a great deal more research will need to be




carried out on the cost,  effectiveness and applicability of these tech-




niques before their use can be considered for these motor vehicles.




        4.  Service Station Vapor Controls




             Although the hydrocarbon vapors emitted to the air from




service stations  cannot be considered in-use vehicle  exhaust emissions,




the relationship between these vapor losses and vehicle use is so direct

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that their control can legitimately be thought of as a transportation




control.




             The average service station sells approximately 25, 000




gallons of gasoline per month and in the process is estimated to emit




nearly 400 pounds of hydrocarbon vapor. By 1975 uncontrolled vapor




losses of this magnitude will make the service station as important a




source of HC emissions  as some of the vehicles it serves.  Translated




into grams/mile the HC  emissions from the service station exceed the




1976 new car HC standards.




             Service station vapor losses result primarily from vehicle




fueling and tank truck unloading.  Vapors emitted in these processes




account for over 90% of the total vapor loss.  Vapor displacement con-




trol techniques are presently being developed which show the potential




for reducing  these  emissions by over  80% by 1977 ( a reduction of over




75% in total service station vapor losses).  The annualized cost of




service station vapor controls  is estimated to be  approximately $3.20 per




car serviced by the controlled service station.







    B.   Inspection/Maintenance (I/M)




         All inspection/maintenance approaches include two phases:




an inspection phase used to screen the vehicle population to determine

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                                   11




which vehicles should be required to receive maintenance; and a




maintenance phase, in which appropriate corrective maintenance is




performed on the selected vehicles.




         1.   Light Duty Vehicle I/M




             Recent studies have demonstrated that significant reductions




in light duty vehicle emissions  can be achieved through enforced I/M pro-




grams.  The effectiveness  of a program depends primarily upon the




fraction of the vehicle population forced to receive corrective maintenance.




A program of inspecting idle mode emissions is estimated to  result in




reductions of 11% for HC and 10% for CO if 50% of the vehicle  population




fails the initial inspection and receives corrective maintenance.   An




initial failure rate of only 10% provides reductions of 6% for HC and 3%




for CO.  A loaded mode inspection should provide a 15% HC and 12% CO




reduction at a  50% initial failure rate and an 8% HC and 4% CO reduction




at a 10% initial failure rate.  These reductions are  representative of an




annual inspection program.  More frequent inspection and maintenance




would be expected to lead to larger average emissions reductions.




             Annual emissions inspection in State operated lanes is




estimated to cost less than $2 per vehicle.  Maintenance costs observed




in fleet studies of various I/M approaches  have been found to lie in the

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range of $20 to $30 for those vehicles failing the inspection test.  How-





ever, the annual average maintenance cost to all vehicles subject to





inspection is estimated to be about $3 per vehicle when the  cost of main-





tenance which would normally have been performed voluntarily is netted





out of the estimated maintenance cost.




             The impact of I/M programs on fuel economy  has not been





adequately determined.




         2.   Heavy Duty Vehicle and Motorcycle I/M





             I/M programs for HDV's and motorcycles are potentially




applicable,  but programs have not yet been carried out to accurately




assess the degree of control achievable  for these vehicles.




         - Implementation Time Frame





         The dates at which the control  techniques discussed above can





be implemented vary according to the time needed to develop and evaluate




each control measure,  to manufacture  control devices and build or





modify automobile  service facilities, to conduct pilot studies and to phase





in or install the control  system.  Table  2 summarizes the best estimate





of the time  requirements for each of these technical implementation con-





straints.  It should be noted that these estimates do not reflect those





aspects (primarily institutional) of the implementation programs  of

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                                  13

particular air quality regions which would facilitate or delay the use of

these control techniques.


                              TABLE 2
                 IMPLEMENTATION TIME PHASING
Technique
LDV Retrofit
Development  Facilities Prep   Pilot  Phase-in  Date
& Evaluation  or Manufacturing Study
VSAD 1
Air Bleed 18
Catalyst 18
LDV I/M
Idle*
Loaded*
HDV Strategies
Retrofit 29
I/M 21
Gas Station Control
Stage I**
Stage II***
6
6
6

12
12

6
6

12
18
12
12
18

3 12
6 12

12
6 12

12
18
1/75
6/76
1/77

9/75
12/75

6/77
5/77

6/75
6/76
*Subtract 6 months if facilities already exist.
**Stage I is control of tank trunk to storage tank losses.
***Stage II is control of automobile fueling vapor losses.
         - Consumer Costs

         The cost of the emissions control measures discussed above can

be viewed in terms of the incremental out-of-pocket costs likely to be

incurred by various automobile owners  in the initial year of the control

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program's implementation or in terms of the average annual cost likely

to be incurred by all vehicle owners if the cost of the control program

can be spread to all vehicle owners.

         Table 3 sets forth the range of out-of-pocket costs  likely to be

incurred by the average vehicle owner in the year of program imple-

mentation.  The cost data reflect an assumption that the owners of

vehicles of various ages will be required to pay cash for the installation

of pollution control devices,  the inspection and maintenance of the

vehicles and the modification of the service stations  servicing all vehicles.


                              TABLE 3

   POSSIBLE CONSUMER COSTS IN YEAR OF IMPLEMENTATION


New Cars
   Control Devices                           $160. 00 - $200.00*
   I/M                                          1.20 -   31.20**
   Gas Station  Control                           3.20 -    3.20***
                           TOTAL           $164.40 - $234.40

1968 - 1974 Cars
   Control Device (Catalyst)                  $90.00 - $140.00
   I/M                                          1.20 -   31.20
   Gas Station  Control                           3.20 -     3.20
                           TOTAL           $94.40 - $174.40

Pre-1968 Cars
   Control Device (VSAD or Air Bleed)        $30. 00 - $59. 00
   I/M                                          ,1.20 -   31.20
   Gas Station  Control                           3.20 -   3. 20
                           TOTAL           $34.40 - $93.40
incremental cost of control devices over what is presently found on new cars,
**Range of costs reflects the fact that some cars will require maintenance,
  others will not.
***The average cost per car of controlling gasoline station vapors if the
    cost is passed on to the consumer over a 5-year period.

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                                  15.




         The data in Table 3 show that the initial cost of the hardware




oriented emissions controls can be substantial if the vehicle owner is




forced to finance the cost entirely in the first year.  However, financing




techniques available to both the individual vehicle owner and the impacted




AQCR can be used to spread these costs (over time and to other individuals)




and lower their impact.




         Table 4 details  the impact of various financing schemes on




individual income groups.   The dollar costs represent those that would




be incurred in a city which employs a full complement of the control




techniques discussed above (Appendix B sets forth these costs for each




device).  Therefore these  costs can be viewed as the upper bound of




annual costs to be incurred in any AQCR employing hardware  oriented




transportation controls.

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                              TABLE 4

 ANNUAL EXPENDITURES FROM VARIOUS FINANCING TECHNIQUES
0-3
Average # of Cars /household .48
Average Age of Car 7. 0
Household
3-5
6
.81
. 1
Income
5-7.5
1,
5,
.1
,7
8
Groups
7.5-10
1.29
4.8
($Thous)
10-15
1.48
4.6
15+
1.
4.
75
0
State Financing*

1.  Fee per Car             $22.00  $22.00   $22.00  $22.00   $22.00  $22.00
    % of Income               1. 5      .6      .4       .3      .2      .1

2.  Avg fee/household       $10.87  $18.35   $26.73  $29.22   $33.52  $39.64
    % of Income                .7      .5      .4       .3      .3      .2

Consumer Financing**

1.  Cost per Car            $48.18  $48.34   $50.02  $50.94   $51.58  $53.42
    % of Income               3.2     1.2      .8       .6      .4      .3

2.  Avg Cost/household      $14.98  $26.29   $37.88  $42.46   $49.49  $61.33
    % of Income                .9      .7      .6       .5      .4      .3
^Assumes that the AQCR using transportation controls will finance hardware
 controls with a 5-year 8% loan, the cost of which is passed on to all vehicle
 owners over 5 years as an increased registration tax.
**Assumes the owner of the vehicle being modified will finance the capital
  of the control hardware with a 3-year loan at 18%,  the loan is paid off in
  3 equal annual payments.
         The date in Table 3 clearly indicate that the poor generally own

fewer and older cars and therefore in absolute dollar terms, in-use

vehicle controls will cost the average poor family less than the average

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rich family,  no matter what the financing technique.  However, the



relative impact of the costs  incurred is always regressive.  Whether



the control plan is financed through an increased vehicle registration



tax— or consumer loan, the poor household will always pay relatively



more of its  income.  It should be noted however that using our financing



assumptions the data indicate that a uniform registration tax is no less



regressive than consumer financing (assuming the rich and poor can get



similar financing terms)  and that in absolute terms the poor family would



actually pay less if it could finance the  installation of emissions control



systems itself ($14. 98 for 3  years compared to $10. 87 for 5 years).-'



         - Cost-Effectiveness



         The cost-effectiveness of the control techniques  shown in



Table 2 can best be described in terms-of the pounds of pollutants  con-



trolled per dollar expended on the control device. Tables 5 and 6



describe the cost-effectiveness of HC and CO control devices respectively.
— The regressiveness of a registration tax can be reduced by reducing
  the tax with the age of the vehicle.
  /
  With a registration tax the p

  costs of the multi-car rich.
— With a registration tax the poor are forced to share in the control

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                                   18

             a.  HC Controls

                 The data in Table 5 show that control techniques

designed to reduce HC emissions from pre-controlled vehicles and

service stations are clearly the most cost-effective.  However, one must

not confuse cost-effectiveness -with the relative importance of a control

technique in eliminating a regional air pollution problem.  The figures in

parentheses in Table 5 show the reductions in total HC emissions from the

implementation of each control technique.—  These data show that the use

of pre-controlled vehicle retrofits in 1977  (Air Bleed or VSAD) will reduce

total HC emissions in the air quality region by only approximately 1%.

Therefore, the cost-effectiveness of pre-controlled vehicle  retrofits are

very high, but they achieve relatively little in the way of improvements

in air quality.  Conversely,  measures such as I/M and catalytic retrofits,

which are  applicable to controlled vehicles, have relatively low cost-

effectiveness but higher air quality impact.  Gasoline marketing controls

prove to be both important and cost-effective in eliminating  regional HC

emissions. Finally, it should be noted that I/M is a pre-requisite for

all retrofit measures  owing to the need to  keep the retrofit devices in
— Calculations based on a region with 30% stationary source HC contri-
  bution such as Philadelphia,  Baltimore and Indianapolis.

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good operating condition.  Hence, it is not possible in practice to select

an approach such as VSAD, for example, based on its high cost-effect-

tiveness and implement it without inspection/maintenance.


                              TABLE 5

       COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF HC CONTROL TECHNIQUES*


                              Date of Program Implementation**
                                  1977                 1980

I/M (all cars)                  1. 64 (3. 6%)           . 54 (1. 5%)

Catalyst ('72--74)              1.79(3.77%)        1.31(3.0%)

Catalyst ('68-'74)              1.90(5.5%)          1.23(3.6%)

Air Bleed (pre-1968)           5.48(1.0%)          5. 20 ( . 5%)

VSAD (pre-1968)               6. 91  (1. 2%)          8. 36 ( . 6%)

Gasoline Station Controls      10.67 (7. 1%)          11.56 (9.6%)
*Cost-effectiveness increases with the size of the figure.
**The cost-effectiveness of the 1976 HC standard is 3.7.
             b.  CO Controls

                 The cost-effectiveness calculations for CO controls

follow a progression similar to that seen for HC controls.  Retrofit

devices for pre-controlled vehicles again prove to be the most

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                                  20

cost-effective but measures for controlled vehicles have the greatest

impact on air quality.  However,  the CO emissions reductions (shown

in parentheses) achieved by these control techniques are considerably

higher than those achieved for HC.  Air bleed retrofits, for example,

yield a 7.1% reduction in total CO emissions in 1977, while  air bleed

only yielded a 1% reduction for HC.  The relative importance of CO

control techniques is generally higher because regional CO problems

are caused primarily by motor vehicles.  Again, inspection/maintenance

is a  pre-requisite for retrofit.


                              TABLE 6

      COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF CO CONTROL TECHNIQUES*


                              Date of Program Implementation**
                                 1977                 1980

I/M                            17.5 (7.7%)         8.8 (6.3%)

Catalyst ('72-'74)             20.0 (8.4%)        15.2 (9.2%)

Catalyst ('68-'74)             24.7 (14.5%)        15.5 (11.8%)

VSAD (pre-1968)               31.8(1.1%)         40. 9 (. 7%)

Air Bleed (pre-1968)          194.0(7.1%)        192.7(4.9%)
*Based on an AQCR with 5% stationary source contribution such as Seattle,
 Phoenix  and Minneapolis.
**The cost-effectiveness of the 1976 new car CO standard  is 32. 9.

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         -  Summary




         The data cited above on the cost-effectiveness and importance




of various  emissions controls lead to a number of conclusions about




these control techniques:




             a.   Service  station vapor controls - the control of service




station vapor losses is both highly cost-effective and important in con-




trolling regional HC emissions (these factors also grow with time).




Therefore, these control systems  should be developed and implemented




as early as is technologically feasible.




             b.   Inspection/maintenance - although relatively cost




ineffective, I/M is an essential component of nearly all  transportation




control plans,  because it is needed to assure the proper installation




and performance of vehicle retrofits as well as new car emissions




control devices.  In addition, its effectiveness in improving air quality




is relatively high as it is applicable to both'pre-controlled and con-




trolled vehicles.




             c.   VSAD and Air Bleed - retrofit devices designed to




control the emissions of pre-controlled cars are relatively more cost-




effective than other retrofit devices.  However, having  said this,  it




must also be pointed out that the use of these devices  (particularly in

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                                   22



control of HC) will not substantially reduce total regional emissions



because they can be installed on only a relatively small group of



vehicles (pre-1968).



             d.   Catalyst - the  control of 1968-1974 automotive emis-



sions with catalyst retrofits will generally provide a  substantial



reduction in total regional emissions.  However, the high initial cost



of catalytic systems makes this  control technique somewhat less cost-



effective than those designed for pre-controlled cars.





     C.  Reductions of Auto Use



         Increasing public awareness  of the adverse effects of the auto-



mobile on the urban environment,  and legislation such as the Clean Air



Act that has resulted from  this awareness, make it clear that urban



development policies that have encouraged and relied upon unrestricted



use of the automobile must be changed.   Controls must be placed on



automobile  use; transit must be  subsidized to at least the same extent



as the automobile,  and means must be found to prevent future urban



growth from generating large  volumes of traffic.  The need to reduce



urban area  auto use is no longer at issue.  The problem is  how to do it
                                                        •


without excessively restricting the mobility of urban  area residents.

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        Among the possible approaches to the solution of this problem,




increased transit usage and quality seem to offer the greatest potential




for success over the long run.  Other possible approaches include




increased car pooling,  reducing trip frequencies  or trip lengths, and




direct vehicular restraints (e.g., vehicle free zones). The potential




merits and limitations of transit improvements,  increased use  of car-




pools, and direct vehicular restraints are discussed in the following




sections.  Present knowledge does not permit meaningful discussion of




the problem of reducing trip frequencies  or lengths without excessively




impairing mobility.




        1.   Improved Transit




             It is well known that transit usage in the United States is




extremely low.  Only about four percent of person trips in urban areas




take place by transit, and transit carries only about 14 percent of work




trips.  However, transit vehicles emit less carbon monoxide and hydro-




carbons per passenger  mile  than cars do.  Thus, total vehicle emissions




could be considerably reduced if more people would travel by transit




instead of by car. For example,  if the percentage of work trips using




transit could be increased to 50 percent,  urban area vehicle  emissions




of HC and CO might be  reduced by 15 percent. If 90 percent  of workers




used transit, vehicle emissions could decrease by one third.

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                                  24




             The low level of transit rider ship in the United States is




frequently attributed to America's  "love affair" with the automobile,




but there  are more tangible reasons as well.   For example, nearly




50 percent of urban area residences are located three or more blocks




from the nearest transit stop, and 30 percent are six or more blocks




from the nearest stop.  Transit routes are strongly downtown oriented,




but only about 10 percent of trips go downtown. Transit trips take nearly




twice as long as auto trips.   And, auto parking costs tend to be heavily




subsidized,  averaging only $0. 75 per day in downtown areas although




commercial rates can exceed $3. 00 per day.   Clearly, present transit




service in the United States does not offer a very attractive alternative




to the automobile.




             There are many ways of increasing the attractiveness of




transit relative to the automobile.  Bus travel times can be reduced by




giving buses priority treatment  on  streets and freeways.  The distances




between residences and bus stops can be reduced. Schedule frequencies




can be increased. Suburban and crosstown service can be expanded.




Fares can be reduced, and auto parking or road use charges  increased.




             There is  a growing body of evidence indicating that high




quality transit can attract high levels of ridership, particularly when

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                                  25


auto use is expensive or difficult.  For example, the Shirley Highway


Express in the Washington area, whose buses operate  in lanes that
                                        •z

are separated from automobile traffic, has achieved a peak period


ridership of nearly 40 percent.  Before the service  started,  ridership


was 27  percent.  Average ridership in the Washington  area is only


19 percent.  In Los Angeles charter buses are being used to carry


workers from outlying residential locations to industrial employment


centers.  Service is provided on a subscription basis at a cost less


than that of the automobile.  The bus operator .estimates that the bus


service carries over 90 percent of potential users and is now constrained


from expanding the service by lack of vehicles.  In Chicago,  and New


York City, where downtown auto use is difficult and expensive,  70 to


90 percent of downtown trips take place by transit.  In addition, EPA


studies suggest that if transit travel times can be  made comparable


with auto travel times, as many as 50 percent of work trips would take


place by transit.   If auto drivers had to pay $2. 00 to $5. 00 per day to


park, work trip transit ridership could exceed 90  percent if the transit


were available.  These considerations indicate that  high quality transit


can achieve high levels of ridership without the  imposition of such


extreme measures as gasoline rationing.  In other words, the most

-------
                                  26




important transit problem is not one of finding -ways to generate demand




but one of creating high quality transit systems to serve the potential




demand.




             Planning and implementing  substantial transit improve-




ments are likely to present severe problems in the period 1973-77 owing




to the difficulties of designing  suitable transit systems and acquiring




the necessary vehicles.  Existing transit does not have the capacity to




achieve large reductions  in auto  use.  Most urban transit systems




operate at more than 75 percent  of capacity during periods of peak




work travel.  EPA calculations indicate that •with this level of capacity




usage, the maximum reduction in auto use that can be achieved by




existing transit fleets is about five percent.  Achieving a 10 to  20




percent reduction in auto use could require expansions of current




transit fleets of at least 50 percent and possibly over 300 percent.




Threefold fleet expansions in many urban areas  could exceed the short-




run production capacity of the  bus manufacturing industry.  In  addition




to bus production problems, there appear to be significant short-run




planning problems.  Most existing urban area transit plans are pro-




jected to achieve decreases in auto use of less than 10 percent.  The




most ambitious transit plan that  has come  to EPA's attention,  that for




the Washington Metro System, is projected to be capable of achieving

-------
                                  27
a 20 percent reduction in auto use if it were fully implemented in 1976.




In.fact, the system will not be  completed until 1983.  These produc-




tion and planning problems  suggest that although the potential for




reducing auto use through improved transit is large, it may be unreal-




istic to expect reductions greater than 10 to  20 percent by 1977.




             The cost of bus transit depends on the detailed character-




istics of the bus  system, notably on vehicle  occupancies.  Transit




buses cost roughly $1. 00 per mile to operate compared with $0. 07 per




mile for cars. Hence, a transit system that carries roughly 40 riders




per vehicle round trip will cost about the same as the auto.  Higher




occupancy systems might achieve net savings  of $100 per rider per




year.  However,  with low occupancies costs could reach $900 per




commuter per year.  There is clearly a potential for achieving sub-




stantial emission reductions at a net cost savings through increased use




of bus transit. However, precise cost estimates will not be possible




until detailed plans for emissions-control oriented transit systems have




been developed.




         2.   Carpooling




             Average automobile occupancy in the United States is about




two persons per car.  For work trips auto occupancy is about 1.4 per-




sons per car. Since  the average automobile is capable of carrying at

-------
                                  28




least four persons, these statistics suggest that substantial reductions




in automobile use may be achievable through increased use of carpools.




The use of carpools as an emissions control approach has the additional




attraction of having a low, possibly negative, cost.




             The  principal problem with increased carpooling is that




carpools are highly restrictive in terms of the service offered.   Car-




poolers must have trip origins and destinations that are close to each




other,  must desire to travel at the same times of day, and, to minimize




the problems of locating carpool partners,  must make trips that are




repetitive from day to day.   These considerations  suggest that the




greatest potential for increased carpool usage is in connection with peak




period work trips, particularly those to areas of high employment




density.




             Experience to date with carpool programs suggests that




policies to encourage carpooling might double auto occupancies for down-




town peak period •work trips.  These trips are responsible for about




seven percent of urban area  auto travel.  Non-downtown peak period




work trips account for roughly 20 percent of urban area auto travel.




There has been very little experience with  carpooling programs in




connection with these trips.  However, if a 10 percent to 50 percent

-------
                                  29

increase in auto occupancy is adopted as a realistic range of possible

effects, the net effect of carpool policies on total urban area auto use
                                         
-------
                                   30

$0. 6 million per year.  If this system achieves a three percent increase

in auto occupancies for peak period downtown work trips,  the savings it

achieves in auto operating costs will equal the annualized  costs of the

system.

         3.   Vehicular Restraints

             Traffic and emissions in urban areas can be reduced

through the use of vehicular restraints such as traffic free zones,

partial traffic bans,  parking restrictions,  and vehicle use charges.

With the exception  of traffic free zones,  all of these approaches to

traffic restriction are applicable, in principle, over entire urban areas.

However, to minimize community disruption,  their widespread use can

be effected  only if suitable transit facilities are available.  The  possible

effects of restraint measures are discussed here with the assumption

that either the necessary transit is available or the restricted zones

are small enough to be accessible on foot.—
—'The complementarity between transit and vehicular restraints serves
  to facilitate transit as well as the restraints.  By relieving congestion
  in high density areas, vehicular restraints can significantly contribute
  to fast, reliable transit service.   Indeed, the effect of vehicular
  restraints combined with transit  improvements could be to make
  transit travel faster and more reliable than cars were under congested,
  pre-restraint conditions.  The quality of the transportation system
  would,  thus, be improved for all travellers including former auto
  users who switched to transit.

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                                  31




             Total traffic bans are the only forms of vehicular restraints




with which there has been extensive experience.  Traffic is banned from




portions of the central districts of over 100  cities in Europe and Japan.




The affected areas are typically small (less than 1 km maximum




dimension) owing to the need to provide foot access to the zones.  Reduc-




tions in 5 to  10 hour CO concentrations of 50 percent to 80 percent have




been reported.  No effects on oxidant have been reported, but they are




undoubtedly  small.




             Available evidence from Europe and Japan indicates  that




traffic bans have a beneficial effect on retail business  in the ban areas.




Indeed, some merchants  in Rome are reported to have gone on strike




to protest their street's exclusion from a traffic free zone.  Long-term




traffic bans have tended to  be linked with measures to increase parking




and transit availability on the periphery of the ban areas.  There is  no




evidence of increased pollution or congestion in peripheral areas.




             Traffic free zones are necessarily restricted in size




owing to the  need to provide foot access.  Restricted areas might  be




expanded considerably (perhaps to one square mile) through the use  of




partial traffic bans.  These  could consist of applying restrictions  only




to private autos; enforcing restrictions only during selected portions




of the day; enforcing restrictions only on selected roadways; linking

-------
                                  32





several small traffic free zones by corridors to which access is not




restricted,  or licensing vehicular access to selected areas.  The





potential benefits and problems of the various approaches appear to





be similar;  increasing the size of the restricted areas and the strin-





gency of  estrictions tends to increase the potential  air quality improve-





ments but also tends to increase problems of access, circulation, and





peripheral congestion and pollution.  There has  been no experience





with partial traffic bans in relatively large areas. Many of their





potential problems may be solvable.   Thus,  programs of experimenta-




tinn with the various types of restrictions could  be of considerable





value.




             The use of parking restrictions to reduce auto use and




emissions has attracted much recent interest.  The  only known  data




on the effect of parking restrictions on air pollution  are from an





experiment in Marseilles, France, where a comprehensive parking





ban in the central city was found to reduce local CO  concentrations by




40 percent.





             In downtown areas, the total supply of parking spaces





tends to exceed parking demand by about 30 percent.  On-street parking





accounts for only about 13 percent of the downtown parking space.

-------
                                  33


About 45 percent of downtown parkers are commuters.  It thus appears


that downtown parking restrictions will be most effective  if they are

                                        «•-.
directed at both off- and on-street parking,  are structured to take


account of varying degrees of excess capacity among parking facilities,


and are designed to encourage commuters to use transit or carpools.


             Increasing the cost of auto travel relative to other modes


is another frequently suggested approach to  reducing auto use.  Measures


to raise auto costs include increased registration fees, increased fuel


costs, road use charges,  parking taxes,  and the sale of daily licenses


for access to selected areas within a city.  There has been little


experience with any of these measures.  Indeed present public policy


tends to work in the opposite direction from the one desired:  registration


fees are often lower for old, heavily polluting cars than for newer and


cleaner ones; tolls are imposed to pay for facilities when they are new


and uncrowded but are removed when the facilities  are  paid for, -which


is when they are most needed; monthly auto  commuter tickets are avail-


able at a discount under daily tickets; and all-day parking is frequently


cheaper  per hour  than short-term parking.


             When auto charges are keyed to daily auto use,  the net


cost per trip is presumably what influences  people's decisions as  to


mode and frequency of travel.  In the discussion of transit it was

-------
                                   34



suggested that a $2. 00 to $5. 00 per day charge for auto work trips could



cause substantial shifts of commuters to transit if adequate transit were



available.  Daily costs in this  range could be imposed directly through



parking or access license fees.  An equivalent mileage charge would be



$0.10 to $0.25 per mile for a 10 mile commute. A fuel tax of $1.40 to



$3.50 per gallon might be roughly equivalent,  although the effect of



the fuel tax on a given commuter would  depend on  the fuel consumption



of his car.



             There is evidence that non-work trips, particularly shop-



ping trips, are at least as sensitive to fees as work trips.  However,  it



is not known to what extent  this sensitivity reflects changes of mode,



destination,  or trip frequency in response to costs.  Thus, while it is



likely that auto use fees  will be effective in discouraging  non-work



auto travel,  the effects of such fees on discouraged travellers and on



economic activity cannot be assessed at present.





AIR QUALITY CONSIDERATIONS



     The foregoing sections have considered the effects on auto emissions



of various emissions control approaches when  each is implemented
                                                        •


independently of the others. However,  transportation controls in most



regions needing them will involve combinations of two or more individual

-------
                                   35




control measures.  In this section the combinations of measures




included in regional transportation control plans are discussed; the




effects  on air quality of these groups of measures are assessed, and




some important uncertainties in forecasts of the air quality effects of




transportation controls are identified.




    It was noted earlier that the application of stringent stationary




source controls and the Federal new car emissions  standards should




of themselves  reduce the number of AQCRs projected to exceed the




ambient air quality standards in 1975 to about 29.  EPA is in the process




of finalizing  and approving in-use vehicle control plans  for these 29 air




quality control regions.  These plans,  depending upon the  magnitude




of the problem in the individual regions, include some combination of




the measures discussed previously, along with specific measures




tailored to the needs or circumstances of the individual region.




    Of these 29 regions,  it is expected that El Paso, Rochester and




Cincinnati can achieve the standards by 1975 through the implementation




of an  inspection/maintenance program and improvements in existing




transit systems.  However,  these three regions are projected to




achieve the air quality standards by 1977 through the influx of new




vehicles alone.

-------
                                  36

    An additional 7 regions, including Springfield,  Seattle, Spokane,

Dallas, Mpls-St. Paul, Chicago and  Portland, are  projected to meet

the air quality standards by 1975 through the use of an inspection/

maintenance system and substantial improvements  in transit.  The

remaining 19 regions all require hardware retrofits,  an inspection/

maintenance program,  and/or significant reductions in vehicle usage

to achieve  the standards by 1975. However, lead time constraints on

the implementation of major traffic controls and transit improvements,

and on the installation of various emissions hardware controls have

pushed the date of air quality standard attainment beyond 1975 for

these regions.

    Of the 19 regions sighted above,  only six regions, including

Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, National Capital, Salt Lake City, San Antonio

and New York City (CO only)— ,  can  achieve the air quality standards

by 1977,  but only with the use of emissions control  retrofits as well as

major transit improvements and/or other measures that substantially

reduce vehicle use by up to 20 percent.
— The downtown New York City CO problem should be cleaned up in
  1977; but the areawide oxidant problem, involving portions of New
  York, New Jersey and Connecticut, will require reductions in
  emissions areawide which are beyond present expectations for 1977.

-------
                                  37




    Based on EPA's present analysis,  the remaining 14 regions of




Phoenix, Baltimore,  Boston,  Denver,  New York City (OX only),




San Joaquin, San Diego, Southeast Desert, Sacramento, Los Angeles,




San Francisco,  Houston, Beaumont,  and Fairbanks probably cannot




be reasonably expected to meet the air quality standards even by 1977.




Compliance with the air quality standards in these regions appears to




require not only inspection/maintenance and the fullest possible vehicle




retrofit, but also reductions in vehicle use of substantially more than




20 percent.  In  light of the limitations  on the short-run potential for




reducing auto use, achieving the air  quality standards by  1977 is likely




to require unreasonable changes in the present life styles of those




regions and could result in the paralysis of entire urban areas. Final




determination however, of both the exact reductions in traffic required




and the feasibility of achieving those reductions cannot be made until




information presented during the  public hearings on the plans can be




analyzed to determine exactly what each of the  regions can do in terms




of transit improvement and traffic reduction by 1977.




    Additional reductions due to the  influx of new, cleaner vehicles




will make compliance in nearly half of these remaining 14 regions a




reasonable post-1977 goal. However,  those regions with  the most




severe oxidant problems are not expected to achieve the standard

-------
                                        38
without improvements  in transit systems,  land use, and stationary


source  control technology  which are not  presently available.


     Table 7 summarizes  EPA's present assessment of a feasible com'


pliance schedule.

                                    TABLE 7

                 STATUS OF REGIONS  REQUIRING  IN-USE VEHICLE
   EMISSIONS CONTROLS TO MEET THE OXIDANT  A^D CARBON  MONOXIDE STANDARDS ]_/
Gnup
Regions
Planned Strategy
Projected Year
of Compliance
   II
  III
   IV
          El  Paso          Stringent stationary  sources
          Rochester        control; automotive  inspec-
          Cincinnati       tion and maintenance
Springfield
Seattle
Spokane
Dallas
Minneapol is-St.  Paul
Chicago
Portland
Same as Group I + major  transit
improvements
                                                        1975
                                                                 1975
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
National Capital
Salt Lake City
San Antonio
Downtown NYC(CO)
Same as Group II + hardware
retrofit + reductions  in
vehicle miles travelled
(VMT) of up to 20%
  1977
Los Angeles  2/
San Francisco
Denver
Boston
Phoenix-Tucson
Beaumont  3/
Fai rbanks
Sacramento
San Diego
San Joaquin
S. E. .Desert I/
Interstate NYC Region(OX)
Baltimore
Houston
Same as Group  III  but  with  VMT
reductions over  20%
Postr1977
   JV This allocation of regions represents the findings of our analysis at  this
      time.  Public hearings being held in these regions could lead to some  shifts
      in this categorization.


   21 Group IV regions include some which may require only marginally more than
      20% reduction in vehicle miles travelled (Boston, San Joaquin) and some which
      have serious stationary source problems (Houston, Beaumont).


   3/ Measures still being considered.


   A/ Standards to be achieved through Los Angeles plan.

-------
                                   39




    -  Air Quality Projection Sensitivity




    Projections of emissions and air quality, and the resultant deter-




mination of which regions will or will not meet the standards are




critically dependent upon numerous assumptions.  Emissions projec-




tions  in each region are characterized by a given baseline pollutant




level  (observed peak CO and oxidant levels in a given year), the rela-




tive degree of emissions  contribution from various sources, the pro-




jected trends in emissions sources'  growth,  the types of controls to be




initiated and continued, and the emissions reduction effectiveness of




control measures.  The air quality projections are very sensitive to




minor variations in the assumptions cited above.




    The analysis  of the oxidant and carbon monoxide compliance




schedule presented above is based on our best present knowledge of the




factors contributing to the achievement or non-achievement of the




standards.  However, because of the sensitivity of any air quality pro-




jection to relatively small uncertainties in input data, this analysis is




fraught with uncertainties. The air  quality impact of shifts in some of




the key inputs is discussed below.




         1.   Emissions Inventory




             The  emissions inventory  is an attempt to identify and




quantify the sources of emissions in our urban areas. Both the

-------
                                  40




magnitude of the emissions and the role they play in the development of




the observed high pollutant concentration are difficult to define.  Partic-





ularly in the case of hydrocarbon control, errors in the inventory can




significantly alter the outcome of an emissions projection.  The con-




tribution of  stationary sources (gasoline marketing, petroleum industry,




paint and organic solvent use) is about 20 to 40 percent in most metro-




politan areas.  However, our knowledge concerning these types of





emissions sources  and the exact quantities and types of hydrocarbons





they emit, is limited. Furthermore,  an error in assessing the




importance  (reactivity) of these emissions in the formation of oxidant





will also have a marked impact on the air quality predicted.




        2.   Growth Rates





             The growth rates of emission sources are another possible




source of error in these projections.  If the number of sources or size





of the sources grow faster than we have predicted,  the percentage





reduction in emissions needed for achieving and maintaining the air




standards will be greater.





        3.   Control Strategy Effectiveness





             The projections of emissions reflect reductions in emis-





sions due to in-use vehicle controls; Federal new vehicle emission

-------
                                   41


standards for automobiles, trucks, and buses; and Federal new source

performance standards for certain categories of stationary sources.
                                         W-.
They also reflect substantial reductions in emissions from new and

existing stationary sources due to present and planned State and local

regulations.

             State and local control of stationary source hydrocarbon

emissions can be extremely important. For example, if an air quality

region has a 30 percent  stationary source hydrocarbon contribution in


1970, by 1977 a 20 percent reduction in the emissions of these stationary

sources can be as important as a 24 percent reduction in traffic.  If the

stationary sources continue to be uncontrolled through 1985, a  20 percent

reduction in their emissions at that time could be  equivalent to 100 percent

elimination of the automobile.

             One can see from this comparison  that stationary source

control is going to be another critical facet  of the  overall implementation

strategy.   The projections of emissions used in the plans assume  very

effective stationary source control programs for most of the regions.


The effectiveness of these programs will depend upon the formulation,

promulgation and active  enforcement of strong regulations and the


ability of the industry to apply the needed  control techniques.   Failure


in any of these areas will greatly jeopardize the achievement and


maintenance of the standards.  One area of  particular concern and


uncertainty is the precise manner in which many of the  regulations for

-------
                                   42

solvent users are written.  That is, many regulations now on the books

restrict emissions of only the more reactive classes of hydrocarbons.

The true effectiveness of such regulations and the possible impact on

air quality of not controlling the less reactive (but not inert) hydro-

carbons is not known at this time.

         4.    Baseline Air Quality

             High concentration of air pollution are the result of adverse

(stagnant) meteorological conditions and the accumulation of emissions

in the air under these conditions.  In determining the allowable amount

of emissions for a given region, one must know the  maximum observed

pollutant levels  (the second highest le-vel is used in some  air quality

projections)— and the rate of emissions during that year.

             Unfortunately, meteorological conditions  are not consistent

from year to year.  Because of this,  the meteorological  conditions

causing the observed high levels of pollutants used in our projections

may not be  representative of a region's real potential for achieving the

air quality standard in a given time period.  In addition,  one must keep

in mind that even if the baseline air quality leve Is assumed in our
— The air quality regulations allow the standard to be exceeded once
  a year.

-------
                                   43




analysis are statistically representative of a once-a-year occurrence,




that is no assurance that meteorological conditions in some AQCR's




won't lead to violations of the ambient air  quality standards at some




point in the future.




     -  Sensitivity of Compliance Schedule  for 1977




    Many of the AQCR's have projected air quality levels very near




the standards in 1977.  For this reason,  slight errors in the assump-




tions used to predict the air quality can greatly affect our count of




those regions which will or will not comply with the standards.




Table 8 shows the impact of overestimating or underestimating two




of the most critical variables:  baseline air quality and base-year con-




tribution  of stationary sources. The data  show that if errors were




consistently made in one direction  or the other a difference of 15 regions




in or out  of compliance could result.  It also indicates that our estimate




of only 14 regions not being in compliance  by 1977 is probably optimistic.




     This high degree of sensitivity and uncertainty would further




suggest that our ability, or anyone  else's ability, to make a firm




commitment on exactly which regions will or will not comply by a given




date is somewhat limited unless, of course,  one applies  a very large




margin of safety to  the allowable emissions ceiling.

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                                  44

                              TABLE 8

            IMPACT OF ANALYTICAL UNCERTAINTIES
       ON REGIONS REQUIRING IN-USE VEHICLE CONTROLS
    IN ORDER TO COMPLY WITH OXIDANT AND CO STANDARDS


Impact of Uncertainties     Do not  Comply in 1977*    Comply in 1977

Base Case                          14                      15

Favorable**                        10                      19

Unfavorable***                     25                      4
*Assuming VMT reduction over 20 percent is not feasible.
**Baseline air quality and stationary source contribution over-estimated;
  growth rate and control effectiveness assumed correct.
***Baseline air quality and stationary source contribution under-
   estimated; growth rate and control effectiveness assumed correct.
     -  Improvements in Air Quality

     In spite of the analytical uncertainties in this compliance analysis

and our serious doubts  that several  large cities will be able to comply

with the 1977 deadline,  there is no doubt that the air in the United States

will  be cleaner in the next decade than it has been in the last two decades.

Figures 1 and 2 give a comparison of air quality now and that expected

in 1977.  The plots  show cumulative population of the regions vs. the

maximum level of pollution observed in that region; for all regions

-------
                                  45


exceeding the standard.  Obviously, not every person in a region will


be exposed to the maximum level for that region and these plots must


not be construed as representative of actual individual exposures.


These plots do, however, give a relative indication of the magnitude

                                                          •
of the air pollution problem today and the amount of improvement we


can expect by 1977.  One can see that even in those areas  still in excess


of the standards in 1977, great reductions in the air pollution levels will


have  been accomplished. In addition, most  of these  regions will be very


near  to the standard.

-------
W
2
O
O
i—i
O
W
tf
§
o
&
    120
    100
    80
    60
    40
    20
     0
         NATIONAL

         STANDARD
                             FIGURE  1

                             OXIDANTS
                 1970-72
           .08   .16   .24  .32   .40   .48   .56  .64


                 MAXIMUM CONCENTRATION  (PPM)
W
2
O
2
H
   100
§   80

2
o
W   60
ft
    40
    20
              NATIONAL

              STANDARD
                         1970-72
    FIGURE 2

CARBON MONOXIDE
                 9          18          27         36


                 MAXIMUM CONCENTRATION  (PPM)
                                                             45
*Assuming I/M, retrofits, stationary source controls and 20 percent

 reduction in auto use.

-------
              APPENDIX A - Regions exceeding the Air Quality
                              Standards for CO, NO2 and Oxidants
                              (1969 to 1971 monitoring data)
     AQCR
  Pollutant
OX CO NO2
AQCR
  Pollutant
OX CO NO2
Birmingham
Mobile - Pensacola
N. Alaska
Clark - Mohave
Phoenix - Tucson
Memphis
Los Angeles
N. Central Coast
Sacramento Valley
San Diego
San Francisco
San Joaquin
S. E. Desert
Denver
Hartford - New Haven
NY-NJ-Conn
Philadelphia
National Capital
Jacksonville-Brunswick
E. Wash. -N. Idaho
Chicago
St. Louis
Louisville
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
S. Central Iowa
Kansas City
S. Central Kansas
S. Louisiana-S. E. Texas
Baltimore
X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X

X

X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X


X

X


X
               Boston
               Toledo
               Minn. -St.  Paul
               New Jersey
               Alb. -Mid Rio Grande
               El Paso-Las Cruces
               Genesse-Finger Lakes
               Niagara Frontier
               Charlotte
               Cleveland
               Columbus
               Central Oklahoma
               N. E. Oklahoma
               Portland
               S. W. Pennsylvania
               Middle Tenn.
               Austin-Waco
               Corpus-Christi
               Dallas-Ft. Worth
               Houston-Galveston
               San Antonio
               Wasatch Front
               Hampton Roads
               State Capital
               Puget Sound
               S. E.  Wisconsin
               Central N. Y.
               Dayton
X
X


X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X

X

X





X
X






X


X




-------
                             APPENDIX B

     ANNUALIZED INVESTMENT COST OF CONTROL TECHNIQUES
PER CAR PER YEAR
VSAD + Lean Idle
-State financed*
-Owner financed**
Air Bleed
-State financed
-Owner financed
Catalyst (1968-1971)
-State financed
-Owner financed
Catalyst (1972-1974)
-State financed
-Owner financed
DATE OF
1975
$ .85
9.20
2.25
27.57

4.27
60.49

7.29
52.52
PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION
1977 1980
$ .35 $ .
9.20 9.
1.06
27.57 27.

3. 18 1.
60.49 60.

6.61 4.
52.52 52.

09
20
28
57

33
49

65
52
I/M Loaded Mode

   -State financed                   4.50             4.50               4. 50

Gasoline Marketing

   -Industry financed                3. 19             3. 19               3. 19
State's annual fee to all cars*   $21. 80-$22. 65    $18. 54-$18. 89     $13. 95-$14. 04
*Assumes investments are financed by the State at 8% and paid off in
 5 equal annual payments.
**Assumes consumer financing at 18% paid off in 3 equal annual payments.

-------
                                  TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                            (Please rtad Instatetions on the reverse before completing)
 1. REPORT NO.
  EPA-400-9-74-001
2.
                             3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSIOI*NO.
 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
    The Clean Air Act and Transportation Controls:
        An EPA White Paper
                             6. REPORT DATE
                              Aug.  1973 Date of Issue
                             6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
 7. AUTHOR(S)
                             8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
 John Holmes, Joel Horowitz, Robert Reid, Paul Stolprr an
 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
 Office of Policy Analysis, Office of Air and Water
    Programs,  EPA
  Washington,  B.C.   20460
                                                          10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
                             11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
                                                          13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                                                            Final
                                                          14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
 16. ABSTRACT
       Implementing the Federal air quality standards in certain cities will
       require reductions in automobile emissions greater than those antici-
       pated from new car emissions standards.  Methods  of achieving the
       needed additional emissions  reductions include mechanical measures,
       such as retrofit, and measures to  reduce auto use,  such as transit
       improvements.   By 1977 these measures, taken collectively, appear
       capable of reducing auto emissions by as much as fifty percent.
       However, the ability of such automobile controls  tq  achieve satisfactory
       air quality in a city is  highly dependent on the extent of no n-auto motive
       emissions sources in the city and on initial pollutant concentrations.
 17.
                               KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                             b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                                          c.  COSATI Field/Group
       Air Pollution
       Urban Transportation
       Automobiles
       Smog
       Exhaust Emissions
 8. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT

    Release Unlimited
                19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
                  None
21. NO. OF PAGES
     52
                                             20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
                                                None
                                          22. PRICt
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)

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                                                        INSTRUCTIONS

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    4.   TITLE AND SUBTITLE                                                                                .,    .  .     „
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        number and include subtitle for the specific title.

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        approval, date of preparation, etc.).

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        zation.

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        Insert contract or grant number under which report was prepared.

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        Include ZIP code.

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        Leave blank.

    15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
        Enter information not included elsewhere but useful, such as: Prepared in cooperation with, Translation of, Presented at conference of,
        To be published in, Supersedes, Supplements, etc.

    16. ABSTRACT
        Include a brief (200 words or less) factual summary of the most significant information contained in the report. If the report contains a
        significant bibliography or literature survey, mention it here.

    17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
        (a) DESCRIPTORS - Select from the Thesaurus of Engineering and Scientific Terms the proper authorized terms that identify the major
        concept of the research and are sufficiently specific and precise to be used as index entries for cataloging.

        (b) IDENTIFIERS  AND OPEN-ENDED TERMS - Use identifiers for project names, code names, equipment designators, etc. Use open-
        ended terms written in descriptor form for those subjects for which no descriptor exists.

        (c) COSATI FIELD GROUP - Field and group assignments are to be taken from the 1965 COSATI Subject Category List. Since the ma-
        jority of documents are multidisciplinary in nature, the Primary Field/Group assignment(s) will be specific discipline, area of human
        endeavor, or type of physical object. The application(s) will be cross-referenced with secondary Field/Group assignments that will follow
        the primary posting(s).

    18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
        Denote releasability to the public or limitation for reasons other than security for example "Release Unlimited." Cite any availability to
        the public, with address ana price.

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        DO NOT submit classified reports to the National Technical Information service.

    21. NUMBER OF PAGES
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    22. PRICE
        Insert the price set  by the National Technical Information Service or the Government Printing Office, if known.
                                                                        •if U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1974— 582-412/26


EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73) (Reverse)

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                          EPA-450/1-74-007

           MONITORING  AND  AIR QUALITY  TRENDS  REPORT,  1973

                          ADDENDUM  AND ERRATA

                             DECEMBER  1974
ADDENDUM
     This report is intended to portray recent nationwide air quality
trends and air quality status for the year 1973 for air pollutants
for which NationalAmbient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) have been
established.  The data used in preparation of this report are the
latest available monitoring information reported by the states or
collected by EPA and summarized in the National Air Data Bank '(NADB).
It must be pointed out that the majority of these data were collected
in heavily industrialized or populated portions of the country and
as such do not reflect the full impact of major point sources such
as coal-fired utility plants that are located in nonurban areas.
It is estimated that over 97 percent of the monitoring sites were
established to monitor urban pollution levels and only very recent-
ly have the states' monitoring resources and monitoring priorities
been directed to monitoring the effects of large, more isolated
pollutant sources.

     There are several additional factors that must be considered
when using this report to interpret the air quality status of any
particular geographical area.  First, as explained in the report,
the states' monitoring networks are not yet fully established and,
thus, do not always represent the full geographical coverage required
in assessing air quality.  As a consequence, violations of the
air quality standards may be presently undetected in some regions.
For example, on a nationwide basis, the states' implementation pl.ans
propose a^total of .698 continuous sulfur dioxide monitors and 143*4
bubblers.   As of June 1974, (the cutoff date to prepare summaries
for publication), 350 of the proposed continuous instruments (50
percent) and 1104 of the proposed bubblers (77 percent) were report-
ing at least fragmentary data to the NADB.t  There were 59 AQCR's
reporting either no data or insufficient data (less than a valid
quarter for any station) to support even the most tentative appraisal
of the 24-hour standard.
 Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1971, Table 3-6, p. 65.


'More stations have been reported to the NADB (422 continuous,
 1506 bubblers) but these represent extended networks in certain
 AQCR's.

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