v>EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
EPA-450/2-79-001b
OAQPS No. 1.2-121
April 1979
Air
Guidelines Series
Example Control
Strategy for Ozone
Volume 2:
Case Study of the
San Francisco Bay Region:
1976-1978
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EPA-450/2-79-001 b
OAQPSNo. 1.2-121
Example Control Strategy
for Ozone
Volume 2:
Case Study of the
San Francisco Bay Region:
1976-1978
by
Association of Bay Area Governments
Hotel Claremont
Berkeley, California 94705
Contract No. 68-02-3001
Andrew T.CrMkmoiw, Project Officer
Prepared for
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air, Noise, and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
April 1979
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OAQPS GUIDELINE SERIES
The guideline series of reports is being issued by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) to
provide information to state and local air pollution control agencies; for example, to provide guidance on the
acquisition and processing of air quality data and on the planning and analysis requisite for the maintenance of
air quality. Reports published in this series will be available-as supplies permit-from the Library Services Office
(MD35), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711; or, fora nominal
fee, from the National Technical Information Service. 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
Publication No. EPA-450/2-79-001b
(OAQPS No. 1.2-121)
ii
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER TITLE , PAGE
LIST OF FIGURES 1v
LIST OF TABLES vi
GLOSSARY ix
1. INTRODUCTION 1-1
2. PUBLIC AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND INTERGOVERNMENTAL 2-1
COOPERATION
Intergovernmental Coordination 2-1
Public Participation 2-10
State and Local Consultative Process 2-11
Local Lead Agency Designation 2-13
Joint Determination of Responsibilities 2-15
3. ORGANIZATION FOR THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 3-1
ABAG's Population, Housing, Employment 3-5
and Land Use Models
Travel Demand Forecasting System 3-8
Emission Inventory Disaggregation Models 3-9
Livermore Regional Air Quality Model 3-10
(LIRAQ)
Systems Applications 3-12
i
References 3-16
4. THE AIR QUALITY PROBLEM 4-1
5. COMPILING EMISSIONS INVENTORIES 5-1
Major Point Sources 5-4
Airports 5-6
Area Sources 5-7
Motor Vehicles 5-13
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CHAPTER TITLE PAGE
Link Emissions 5-17
Trip End Emissions 5-18
Baseline Emission Trends 5-20
References 5-27
6. PROJECTING AIR QUALITY 6-1
The Livermore Regional Air Quality Model 6-2
Projecting Air Quality - Modeling Issues 6-4
Baseline Projections 6-4
The Model Validation Process 6-5
Specifying Future Initial and 6-6
Boundary Conditions
Emissions Sensitivity Testing 6-7
7. DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE CONTROLS 7-1
Existing and Planned Programs 7-1
Stationary Source Emission Controls 7-1
Motor Vehicle Emissions Controls 7-2
Transportation Controls 7-4
Land Use Management/Development 7-4
Controls
Inventory of Options (or Candidate 7-6
Control Measures)
Process for Screening the Options 7-10
Options Considered But Not Included in 7-11
the Plan
8. CONTROL STRATEGY ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT 8-1
Determining the Range of Emission 8-2
Reductions Necessary to Meet the Oxidant
Standard
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I
CHAPTER TITLE .
Application of the Air Quality Modeling System 8-3
Control Strategy Effectiveness 8-4
Costs of Proposed Strategies 8-17
!
Stationary Source Control Costs 8-17
Mobile Source Control Costs 8-18
Land Use and Transportation Control Costs 8-19
Cost-Effectiveness of AQMP Recommendations 8-20
References 8-22
9. DEVELOPMENT OF STAFF RECOMMENDED DRAFT PLAN 9-1
Additional Controls on Existing Sources 9-1
Management of the Growth of New Sources 9-5
and Indirect Sources
The Staff Recommended Draft Plan 9-7
10. PLAN REVIEW, ADOPTION AND APPROVAL PROCESS 10-1
Providing Adequate Time for Public 10-3
Review
Specific Changes to the Draft AQMP 10-5
Evaluation of the Public Participation 10-12
Program
1977 Clean Air Act Requirements 10-19
Demonstration of Reasonable Further 10-20
Progress
Implementation of EPA RACT Measures 10-20
Demonstration of Legal, Financial 10-21
and Manpower Commitments
References 10-24
11. THE CONTINUING PLANNING PROCESS 11-1
Organization for Continuing Planning Process 11-1
Future Work and Research Needs 11-3
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1 Relationship of ABAG Policy Bodies to Joint
Technical Staff
Figure 3-1 Overview of AQMP Modeling System
Figure 3-2 The AQMP Modeling System
Figure 3-3 440 Zone System for Land Use and Transportation
Modeling of the San Francisco Bay Region
Figure 3-4 Control Strategy Testing with the AQMP Modeling
System
Figure 4-1 1970-74 Mean Number of Days with Oxidant
exceeding .08 ppm
Figure 4-2 Number of Days in 1975 with Oxidant exceeding
.08 ppm
Figure 4-3 Trend of Average High-Hour Oxidant
Concentrations for Days with Comparable
Temperature and Inversion Conditions (April
through October Photochemical Oxidant Seasons
1962-1976)
Figure 5-1 Summary Schematic of QSOR File Preparation
Figure 5-2 Organization of Motor Vehicle Emission Codes
Figure 5-3 Flow Chart of Trip-End Emissions Programs
Figure 5-4 Hydrocarbon Emission Trends
Figure 5-5 Nitrogen Oxides Emission Trends
Figure 6-1 Baseline Map at 1500 PST for 1985 Emissions and
July 26, 1973 Meteorology, Showing East-West
Section Line AA1 and North-South Section Line
BB1
Figure 6-2 Emission Sensitivity Results Compared by
Various Percent Reductions Along Section AA1 of
Figure 6-1
Figure 6-3 Emission Sensitivity Results Compared by
Various Percent Reduction Along Section BB' of
Figure 6-1
PAGE
2-5
3-3
3-4
3-6
3-15
4-2
4-2
4-4
5-3
5-16
5-19
5-22
5-23
6-9
6-10
6-11
i v
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Figure 6-4
Figure 8-1
Figure 8-2
Figure 8-3
Figure 8-4
Figure 8-5
Figure 8-6
Figure 8-7
Figure 8-6
Figure 9-1
Figure 9-2
Figure 10-1
Plots of Unadjusted and Adjusted Regionwide
High Hour Ozone as a Function of % Reductions
in 1985 Hydrocarbon Emissions
Control Strategy Testing with the AQMP Modeling
System
Example LIRAQ Results 1985 Control Strategy
Analysis (Maximum Technological Improvements
Only)
Example LIRAQ Results 1985 Control Strategy
Analysis (Comprehensive Strategy Including
Additional NOV Controls)
/\
Example LIRAQ Results 1985 Control Strategy
Analysis (Comprehensive Strategy Without
Additional NOX Controls)
Example LIRAQ Results 2000 Control Strategy
Analysis (Baseline Projection Assuming Slower
Population Growth Rate)
4-
Example LIRAQ Results 2000 Control Strategy
Analysis (Transportation and Land Use
Management Only)
Example Results 2000 Control Strategy Analysis
(Maximum Technological Controls Only)
Example LIRAQ Results 2000 Control Strategy
Analysis (Comprehensive Strategy Without
Additional NOX Controls)
Relative Roles of New Source Review/Indirect
Source Review Programs and the Comprehensive
Strategy in Achieving and Maintaining the
Federal Oxidant Standard in the San Francisco
Bay Region
Schedule for Implementation of the Air Quality
Maintenance Plan .
Process for Developing the Plan
PAGE
6-12
8-6
8-9
8-10
8-11
8-12
8-13
8-14
8-15
9-8
9-13
10-4
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 5-1 San Francisco Bay Area Source Inventory: Four
Component Breakdown as in QSOR File Preparation
Table 5-2 Excerpts from Cross-Classification Table Used
for Spatial Distribution of Area Source
Emissions
Table 5-3 Summary List of Nineteen Series 3 Variables
Used in Cross-Classification Analysis
Table 5-4 Summary of Baseline Transportation Data Inputs
to Motor Vehicle Emissions Estimation
Table 5-5 Emissions by Major Source Category
Table 5-6 Summary of Baseline Motor Vehicle Emission
Projections
Table 7-1 Summary of Existing BAAPCD's Regulations on
Stationary Source Control for Oxidants
Table 7-2 Summary of Current Transportation Control
Measures in the Bay Area
Table 7-3 Summary of Land Development Policies in Effect
in the Bay Area, 1975
Table 7-4 Inventory of Air Pollution Control Measures
Table 8-1 Summary of Control Strategies Tested
Table 8-2 Effectiveness of Alternative Control Strategies
Table 8-3 LIRAQ Baseline and Comprehensive Strategy
Analysis for the North Bay (2000)
Table 9-1 Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions Required to
Achieve the 0-08 ppm Photochemical Oxidant
Standard
Table 9-2 Additional AQMP Control Measures for Existing
Sources and Appropriate Emission Reduction
Potentials
Table 9-3 Draft Oxidant Plan Recommendations
PAGE
5-5
5-8
5-10
5-14
5-21
5-25
7-3
7-5
7-7
7-8
8-5
8-7
8-16
9-2
9-3
9-10
VI
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PAGE
Table 10-1 Summary of AQMP Draft Recommendations and 10-6
Changes by ABAG's Policy Bodies
Table 10-2 Air Quality Maintenance Plan Recommendations 10-13
Table 10-3 Comparison of EPA RACT Measures and BAAQMD 10-22
Regulations
Table 10-4 Comparison of EPA RACT Measures with Available 10-23
Control Technology by Source Category in 1985
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GLOSSARY
The definition of terms and acronyms used in this report are given
below:
ABAG: Association of Bay Area Governments
AP-42: EPA document, Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors
including supplements
AQMP: Air Quality Maintenance Plan
BAAPCD: Bay Area Air Pollution Control District
BAAQMD: Bay Area Air Quality Management District, formerly the BAAPCD
Bay Area: San Francisco Bay Area
Caltrans: California Department of Transportation
CARB/ARB: California Air Resources Board
CTG: Control Technologies Guidelines
EMTF: Environmental Management Task Force
EMFAC3: Code name for the mobile emission model developed by CARB
FHWA: Federal Highway Administration
HDD: Heavy duty diesel-powered vehicle
HDG: Heavy duty gasoline-powered vehicle
ISR: Indirect Source Review
IDA: Light duty automobile
LOT: Light duty truck
JTS: Joint Technical Staff
LIRAQ: Livermore Regional Air Quality Model
LLL: Livermore Lawrence Laboratory
MTC: Metropolitan Transportation Commission
NSR: New Source Review
NOV: Oxides of Nitrogen
A
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PRB: Program Review Board
03: Ozone
QSOR: Code name for the final disaggregated source inventory fi'1e
which serves as input to the Livermore Air Quality Model
RPC: Regional Planning Committee
SIP State Implementation Plan
UTM: Universal Transverse Mercator
VMT: Vehicle Miles Travelled
USGS: United States Geological Survey
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Chapter 1'
INTRODUCTION
The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 continue the requirement for
State Implementation Plans (SIP) to be prepared to attain and maintain
national ambient air quality standards. For a variety of reasons, the
deadlines for submittal of the SIP's and the dates by which the plans
are to demonstrate meeting the various air quality standards have been
revised. Wherever possible, SIP's are to be shown meeting all
applicable standards no later than 1982. For carbon monoxide and
photochemical oxidants, under specific conditions, a five-year extension
to 1987 is possible.
An important factor in determining what strategies are needed in an
air quality plan is the level at which air quality standards are set.
Recently, for example, the Environmental Protection Agency changed the
photochemical oxidant 0.08 parts per million (ppm) - 1-hour standard to
an ozone (03) 0.12 ppm - 1-hour daily standard. At the time the Bay
Area non-attainment plan was adopted locally, the oxidant standard was
still 0.08 ppm; therefore, the plan was developed to meet this standard.
Although the standard has been changed to 0.12 ppm, the techniques used
to develop the control strategy for the study are still valid.
Currently, the Bay Area is re-examining its adopted plan to see what
changes are appropriate. Other non-attainment areas may prepare plans
for the new standard.
These reports have been prepared to assist those involved in
preparing non-attainment plans for use in SIP submittals. Specifically,
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the reports deal with preparing photochemical oxidant or ozone control
strategy plans. Depending on where a particular region is in the
development of its plan(s), these guidance materials should be useful
for the 1982 SIP submittals.
Volume I provides general guidance to non-attainment oxidant areas.
This guidance is sufficiently broad in scope that all areas experiencing
oxidant problems should find the report to be useful. Discussions are
presented on the technical procedures for analyzing the oxidant problem
and alternative control strategies. The intergovernmental coordination
and public involvement required in the planning process are similarly
described. A systematic approach to plan development is given. This
approach acknowledges the widespread differences experienced across the
nation in the extent and severity of oxidant air pollution. Three
different levels of analysis are proposed depending on regional
availability of data, staff and budgetary resources and overall
schedules for plan preparation. These three levels of analysis vary in
the degree of sophistication of the models employed for land use and
transportation simulation, emission inventories, and oxidant
predictions. They can be broadly characterized into three groups:
complex, intermediate and simple models. The confidence and accuracy of
technical analysis should be proportional to the degree of
sophistication of the models used and the amount of effort expended in
modeling. As conclusions and recommendations derived from the technical
analysis are often important and costly, emphasis of this guideline is
placed on analyses using complex or intermediate models to obtain more
accurate results. The simple models, e.g., linear rollback, are
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discussed only for the purpose of preliminary assessment.
Volume II documents the results of a planning program to develop an
oxidant plan for the San Francisco Bay Area during the period from 1976
to 1978. This volume is a detailed case study of the planning process,
analysis procedures and development of final plan recommendations.
Volume II is intended primarily for air quality planners and/or
technical personnel. As other non-attainment areas embark on similar
planning programs, the recent experiences of the Bay Area should be
instructive. The Bay Area efforts attempted to maintain an open and
highly visible process for developing the plan. At the same time, the
technical approach and analytical methodologies were as rigorous and
objective as possible given the staff and budgetary resources available
to the program. Throughout the plan development as both process and
products were balanced, lessons were learned for conducting similar work
in the future. The documentation of these lessons learned in the Bay
Area—what to do and what not to do--is a major purpose of this report.
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Chapter 2
PUBLIC AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND
INTERGOVERNMENTAL COOPERATION
For decades the nine counties surrounding the Bay--San Francisco,
San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, Solano, Napa, Sonoma and
Mann— have been considered by inhabitants and others as a region.
Regional governance has slowly developed for the Bay Area over the past
two decades, although the philosophy of home rule remains well
entrenched through legislative provision and long-established local
practices and understandings.
Bay Area policymaking is a fragmented mixture of public and private
actions. Within the public sector, it is a combination of Federal,
State, regional and local governmental actions. For local government,
it is a mixture of actions by myriad local agencies—large and small
counties, large and small cities, regional special-purpose agencies,
sub-regional districts, and hundreds of small suburban neighborhood
"governments" (e.g., fire districts, sewer districts, etc.). No one
agency provides a dominant voice in regional matters because the region
has many single-purpose agencies with independent (and for the most part
uncoordinated) regulatory authority and funding.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION
As the regional council of governments, the Association of Bay Area
Governments (ABAG) is owned and operated by the cities and counties of
the San Francisco Bay Area. ABAG is a voluntary, joint powers,
comprehensive regional planning agency. It was established under the
Joint Exercise of Powers Act (Government Code Sections 6500-6513) by the
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counties and cities within the San Francisco Bay Region. ABAG is the
federally designated Areawide Planning Organization and Areawide
Clearinghouse for this region.
During the fall of 1975 the Air Resources Board (ARB) organized a
local Air Quality Maintenance Plan-Policy Task Force (AQMP-PTF) for the
San Francisco Bay Region. This body was composed of elected officials
and representatives of various public and special interest groups of the
Bay Area. The AQMP-PTF was organized to ensure local involvement and
support in the development of an implementable and acceptable air
quality plan for inclusion in a revised State Implementation Plan (SIP).
This basic approach was taken in light of several unsuccessful attempts
in the early 1970s to implement various State and Federally proposed air
quality control strategies. Local involvement was needed because many
of the anticipated impacts of air pollution control strategies would
affect decisions on the location, extent, timing and costs of areawide
growth and development.
For several months the AQMP-PTF met to discuss air quality problems
t
and the work needed to prepare a plan to alleviate these problems. A
preliminary AQMP work plan was prepared in December 1975. Several
months previously, in the spring of 1975, ABAG was designated as the
regional water quality planning agency under Section 208 of the Federal
Water Pollution Control Act of 1972. The primary mandate as the water
quality planning agency was development of solutions for the unresolved
environmental problems within the region, with an emphasis on urban
stormwater runoff. EPA, ABAG, California Air Resources Board and the
California Water Resources Control Board, recognized the benefits of
integrating the air and water quality planning efforts. Such an
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integrated approach would assure the use of common data bases. Also, it
was determined that the public participation and local involvement
aspects of the program could be best served by a single program. In
early 1976, the task force established to oversee the air quality
planning program transferred its tasks to the 46-member Environmental
Management Task Force (EMTF), the formal policy advisory committee
established by ABAG to oversee the development of the integrated
Environmental Management Plan. This decision, and the subsequent work
to prepare an AQMP for oxidant were very compatible with the forthcoming
requirements and actions to be taken under the 1977 amendments. The
initial AQMP was developed as part of ABAG's Environmental Management
Plan, prepared under the guidance of a 46-member task force. The EMTF
included 23 local elected officials, representatives of 8 regional
environmental agencies, 13 special and public interest groups, a State
legislator and a congressman.
The task force itself technically served an advisory function for
plan development and the first stage of plan implementation. As such,
its responsibilities included recommending a final plan to each
implementing agency's policy board; the task force also described to
these policy boards the actions to be taken by other potential
implementing agencies.
A number of other devices were used to influence the policymaking
process, and to ensure the representation of a broad range of views by
various interests throughout the metropolitan San Francisco community.
A task force Public Participation Committee provided a forum for
"citizens-at-large" perspectives concerning vital issues raised during
the planning process. Still another group was the Plan Implementation
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Committee, formed to evaluate the capabilities of existing governmental
organizations (including planning process participants) recommended to
have implementating responsibilities. Within ABAG the following bodies
had important roles:
o Regional Planning Committee (RPC) - A permanently established
ABAG committee with diverse planning objectives including
preparation of a comprehensive regional plan. Regarding the
Environmental Management Plan and work of the EMTF, the
responsibilities of RPC were to ensure consistency among the
policies and actions adopted for environmental protection
with other policies already adopted by ABAG in other planning
programs—housing, natural resources, open space, economic
development.
o ABAG Executive Board - The governing body of ABAG, composed
of elected city and county representatives of member
jurisdictions. The Executive Board is the legal entity
responsible for receiving contracts, certifying Environmental
Impact Reports, holding public hearings on the Environmental
Management Plan. Membership on the Executive Board is
establised in the ABAG By-laws with representation partially
weighted by population. The Executive Board has 34 voting
members with 22 for cities and 12 members for the counties.
o ABAG General Assembly - As the name implies, the General
Assembly is the complete membership of ABAG with each city
and county being individually represented. A majority of the
cities and a majority of the counties must approve an
action(s) before it is enacted by the General Assembly. The
General Assembly meets at least annually and more often if
necessary.
Figure 2-1 shows the relationship of the various ABAG policy bodies
to staff in the development of the air quality and environmental
management plans.
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Figure 2-1. Relationship of ABAG
Policy Bodies to Joint Techincal Staff
ABAG
General Assembly
ABAG
Executive Board
_T
ABAG
Regional Planning Committee
ABAG
Environmental Management Task Force
Air Quality Joint Technical Staff
ABAG, BAAPCD, MTC, Caltrans, CARS
Another way of assuring participation and coordination in the
development of the initial plan was through a series of technical
advisory committees. An Assessment Advisory Committee, comprised of
representatives of many potentially affected private interests,
environmental interest groups and the general public, had the
responsibility of devising a checklist and procedures for the systematic
impact assessment of the proposed measures and strategies. The
checklist was approved by the EMTF and used for all elements of ABAG's
Environmental Management Program.
To ensure a sound technical approach offering a rational analysis
of air quality problems and proposed solutions, an AQMP Advisory
Committee was forme'd. That committee provided a sounding board for
discussions concerning how various results are derived analytically.
Methodologies, issues and background technical information were also
presented to this group. The committee's function was crucial in terms
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of its role of assuring that a sound, technically competent assessment
of air quality problems had been accomplished. Such information was
•
vital to the actions being taken by policymakers in seeking solutions to
these problems.
A responsive staffing arrangement was necessary to assist the task
force in accomplishing its objective of providing a final plan product.
To accomplish such an objective, an interagency technical staff was
created. The purpose of the Joint Technical Staff (JTS) was to provide
technical support to the policy structure. The JTS was conceived as a
mechanism to effectively guide the work contributions of each
participating agency toward the development of a coordinated set of
strategies for policy evaluation. Since several of the agencies
contributing personnel to staff have existing air pollution-related
planning responsbi 1 ity, a basic task of the JTS was to ensure a
sufficiently broad non-attainment planning program to complement (rather
than duplicate) the efforts.
The JTS was an interdisciplinary team of scientists, engineers and
planners. The staff arrangements were created informally and later
recognized in a memorandum of understanding, and other forms of
interagency agreements. Personnel from the Bay Area Air Pollution
Control District, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and ABAG
formed the core of the JTS. Other participants included representatives
from the Cal trans, ARB, and EPA Region IX.
The JTS coordinated technical tasks among agencies participating in
the planning process. It also guided the emission inventory development
effort and a comprehensive air quality analysis to determine appropriate
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levels of control necessary to attain federal standards. The team also
evaluated specific strategies for accomplishing those levels.
In addition to program coordination, the JTS had the responsibility
for plan development documentation. All background materials--Issue
papers, briefs and technical memoranda pertinent to the revised
SIP—were prepared by, or channeled through this particular group. It
was also responsible for integrating all relevant technical materials
into final plan product.
The interagency staff effort was supported through several direct
and indirect funding arrangements from all levels of government. In
addition to direct financing from state and federal sources, a number of
local governments provided "in-kind" services by way of personnel,
office space, supplies, equipment, etc. While these multifunding
arrangements made it difficult to manage the SIP revision effort, they
were beneficial in that all participating agencies were required to make
more than a philosophical commitment to the planning program.
The JTS met as needed to schedule work, review assignments and
overall progress and to discuss other programmatic issues. On the
average, the JTS met every other week for about two hours. Two other
staff groups were formed to facilitate certain aspects of the technical
work and to provide the necessary interface of the staff work to the
policy bodies. These groups were: 1) the interagency management
committee, and 2) the modeling committee.
The interagency management committee was a three-member group
comprised of senior management from ABAG, BAAPCD and MTC. Specifically,
it was the Associate Executive Director of ABAG, the Deputy Air
Pollution Control Officer of BAAPCD, and the Deputy Executive Director
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of MTC. The interagency management committee met on an ad hoc basis for
several purposes. First, they met to provide overall guidance and
direction to the JTS, especially regarding each agency's policies. The
interagency management committee acted as a quasi-policy body
anticipating what the reactions would be of the respective policy
boards. The committee made suggestions to the JTS on work tasks and
discussed appropriate strategies for timing, content and presentations
of the technical analysis. In addition to facilitating the work
assignments and assuring the necessary priorities and staff commitments
were made for completing the work in a timely manner, the management
committee also ensured that a consistent position was taken by the three
agencies in the joint planning effort.
The modeling sub-committee was established to ensure objectivity
and credibility to the air quality modeling tasks. In particular, it
was set up to ensure a broad participation, especially from reviewing
agencies, on the technical assumptions and approaches being used for
modeling work. The various organizations which served on the modeling
sub-committee were:
o ABAG
o BAAPCD
o MTC
o Caltrans
o CARB (Modeling Group-Sacramento)
0 EPA - IX (Modeling Group)
o Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLL)
o Systems Applications, Inc. (SAI)
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The latter two organizations, ILL and SAI, have both been active in
model development and applications. They provided invaluable assistance
on the appropriate use of the models, important technical assumptions
and interpretation of results.
The modeling sub-committee also met on an ad hoc basis, typically
no more than once per month, to review a variety of modeling tasks. An
important function of the modeling sub-committee was to ensure openness
to many work tasks which might later be criticized because of some
assumption made. Whenever possible, the group attempted to arrive at a
consensus on the modeling approach, assumption and for interpretation of
result. At each step, limitations of the work and uncertainty were
explicitly discussed and in many cases documented.
Another important body for the air quality plan development was the
Program Review Board (PRB). The PRB was established to provide the
necessary Federal and State guidance to the environmental management
plan development. It included representatives from the following
agencies:
o U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - IX
o State Water Resources Control Board
o State Air Resources Board
o State Sol id Waste Management Board
o State Office of Planning and Research
o San Francisco Regional Water Quality Control Board
Another function of the PRB was to provide a forum for discussion
of integrated environmental management issues. Because the Federal and
State programs are organized according to separate media (i.e., air,
water, solid waste) and the ABAG approach was integrated environmental
planning, it was necessary to meet regularly with the Federal and State
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review agencies to receive consistent guidance. This body was
frequently as informative to the separate agencies for program updates
as it was to ABAG for policy guidance.
PUBLIC PARTICIPATION
A variety of approaches and techniques were used to keep the public
informed of the program's progress. Written materials were prepared for
different audiences. For example, press releases were available for the
TV, radio and newspaper media covering the environmental management
program and summaries of the technical materials for the public were
mass produced for widespread distribution. Technical and detailed
reports were available in limited quantities and served primarily as
background materials for the advisory committees or as technical support
documentation. Several mailing lists were maintained for receiving
various publications as well as meeting notices.
Another method for distributing the air quality and other
environmental management materials was in local libraries. A dozen
libraries throughout the region cooperated as depository libraries for
all the ABAG environmental materials. This mechanism provided ready
access to the entire public of many backup documents and special
reports. The libraries also served as convenient locations to have the
draft Environmental Impact Report on file for inspection.
In addition to the written materials, many presentations were made
to many different groups and organizations. A partial listing of these
types of groups is given below:
o Environmental (e.g., Sierra Club, Lung Association)
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o Business (e.g., Bay Area Council)
o Industry (e.g., Peninsula Manufacturers Association, Bay
Area League of Industrial Associations)
o Civic (e.g., League of Women Voters, Walnut Creek
Chamber of Commerce)
o Professional (e.g., Air Pollution Control Association,
American Society of Civil Engineers)
o Governmental (e.g., city councils, county board of
supervisors' meetings, special districts)
Over the two year period, hundreds of small and large community and
other special meetings were held to describe progress on developing an
air quality, water quality and solid waste management plan. When the
draft plan was released in December, 1977, hundreds of more meetings
were held to describe the plan, why it was prepared and the
recommendations. ABAG conducted an extensive public participation
program to keep the public informed of important (and frequently
controversial) environmental decisions facing the region, including
those for air quality.
STATE AND LOCAL CONSULTATIVE PROCESS
In California, the Air Resources Board (ARB) is the state agency
responsible for meeting all requirements of Federal law relating to air
pollution control. The ARB is obligated to initiate a "satisfactory
process of consultation with local governments" pursuant to recent Clean
Air Act Amendments.
For purposes of consultation, the ARB's participation in local
planning takes place at both a policy and technical level. Policy
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involvement includes determining jointly with local elected officials
the intergovernmental distribution of planning responsibilities,
providing interpretation of State policy requirements and monitoring the
local policy-making process. At the technical level, ARB staff
participates in the development of planning assumptions and
considerations, familiarizing themselves with such factors, and
facilitating plan review.
In California, the ARB also assumes a primarily supportive role to
local non-attainment planning. However, by virtue of its direct
responsibility for vehicle emission controls, the ARB reserves some
substantive planning responsibilities for itself. As a partner in the
planning process, the ARB has committed itself to actively participate
in the technical planning process, as well as to consider proposed
measures that will require State action.
By direct involvement in the local process, the ARB has also
improved its efforts to meet state/local coordination requirements. In
addition to traditional devices such as requiring periodic written
progress reports from the local planning program, the ARB keeps abreast
of the local effort by having participating staff located in the region.
Both functions are carried out by ARB through interdisciplinary basin
teams assigned to each planning process being conducted in the state.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has maintained an active
role in the San Francisco Bay Area. Its involvement primarily consists
of providing interpretation of Federal policies for local planning
programs. Other functions include technical and/or financial assistance
to local governments for plan development. Of course the Federal role
2-12
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will vary from region to region and state to state. Some non-attainment
areas may prefer to have EPA take a less active posture. EPA staff may
become more involved in technical and/or policymaking aspects of the
local plan development than they have in other areas. The extent of EPA
involvement will depend both upon the localities' desire to have Federal
advice and the particular regional EPA offices' capacity or desire to
participate.
By January 1978, the San Francisco Bay Area, through its air
quality maintenance planning efforts, had a wel 1 - devel oped
organizational structure for its SIP revision planning process. Its
specific approach, however, may not be workable in other regions of the
country, particularly where other levels of government are more active
in planning to resolve local problems. In such areas the state may
assume major portions of the technical analysis. If this is the
situation, a negotiation process should be created between the state and
local participants—as envisioned by the 1977 amendments. It should be
flexibly structured to permit adequate expression of local concerns and
considerations during the planning process.
LOCAL LEAD AGENCY DESIGNATION
Section 174(a) of the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments requires that,
where possible, the implementation plan for a basin be prepared by an
organization of local elected officials designated by agreement of the
local governments in an affected area. To initiate the designation
process in California, the Air Resources Board in 1978 identified
non-attainment areas throughout the state, and notified local
2-13
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governments within them of the need to develop non-attainment plans. It
also informed them that each non-attainment plan was to be developed
through a cooperative effort involving both state and local governments.
The first step of the process was the designation of a local lead agency
to direct plan preparation.
The San Francisco region's air basin covers six counties and
portions of three others. It was designated a non-attainment area, and
local governments were notified of the need to develop a cooperative
framework for non-attainment planning. Three organizations of local
elected officials, the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAC), the
Bay Area Air Pollution Control District (BAAPCD) and the Metropolitan
Transportation Commission (MTC) were potentially capable of being
designated the local lead agency. MTC is the metropolitan planning
organization designated to conduct transportation planning for the Bay
Area under Federal and State transportation legislation. The BAAPCD is
the regulatory air pollution control agency for the San Francisco Bay
region, and ABAG is a regional council of governments that had nearly
completed its responsibility for directing the Bay Area air quality
maintenance planning process as required by Federal legislation of 1970.
All three agencies cover the designated non-attainment area.
The 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments indicate a preference that the
local lead agency be the air quality maintenance planning organization,
the transportation planning organization or the organization with both
responsibilities. In coordinating the preparation of an air quality
maintenance plan, ABAG had already established a successful interagency
organizational framework for air quality planning in the Bay Area. This
2-14
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experience provided the justification for ABAG to request lead agency
designation by ARB for the San Francisco region's SIP revision effort.
The BAAPCD also submitted a request for designation. However, in
contrast with the ABAG bid, the BAAPCD requested a joint designation of
ABAG, MTC, and itself.
To determine the most appropriate arrangement, ARB staff consulted
local governments and also discussed the alternatives with the staffs of
all three agencies. As a result, the executive officers of the agencies
met to determine how they might work together to undertake the SIP
revision planning effort. The discussions resulted in a statement of
principles whereby specific responsibilities for each of the three
agencies were defined for cooperatively undertaking the planning effort.
Such responsibilities were formally documented in a joint Memorandum of
Understanding early in the non-attainment planning process. According
to the statement of principles, ABAG was to be the lead agency and to
have principal responsibility for overall plan coordination. The agency
was to provide the opportunity for MTC and BAAPCD to make significant
contributions to plan development through policy input and technical
support. The BAAPCD, MTC and ABAG approved the statement of principles
and subsequently entered into a three-party Memorandum of Understanding
to conduct air quality planning cooperatively. Based upon the
statement, the Air Resources Board certified the ABAG as the local lead
agency for non-attainment planning in the Bay Area.
JOINT DETERMINATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES
Many responsibilities originally to be determined jointly by the
State and local elected officials in the Bay Area were left for local
2-15
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resolution via the joint Memorandum of Understanding. However,
additional roles and responsibilities were generally defined by the
state in the following manner: ABAG had the principal responsibility
for overall plan development. Each agency was to contribute to plan
development through participation in an interagency joint technical
staff arrangement. Cities and counties were responsible for assessing
their respective general plans and revising them as appropriate to
assure conformity with the revised SIP. Finally, the state is to
maintain responsibility for oversight, liaison with other non-attainment
planning efforts in California, state policy interpretation as it
relates to non-attainment planning, consideration of measures requiring
state action, and final plan submission to the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency.
As lead agency, ABAG also has the responsibility of providing
public and local policy involvement. Such involvement means the
development of a plan for participation by local citizens throughout the
Bay Area. It also requires the creation of a policy-making mechanism
sufficiently representative of the broad diversity of viewpoints needed
to determine a realistic course of action toward meeting prescribed air
quality standards. The distribution of planning responsibilities is
arrived at largely through negotiations between agencies.
With regard to ABAG, MTC and BAAPCD the allocation of such
responsibilities are predetermined somewhat by the working relationships
established between the agencies during their collaborative effort in
developing an air quality maintenance plan for the Bay Area. During
that effort, the BAAPCD assumed lead responsibility for developing
baseline emission inventories, air quality modeling projections, and
2-16
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evaluating stationary source control options. The MTC performed
baseline transportation system forecasts and evaluated transportation
controls. Finally, ABAG developed the population, employment, and land
use projections, which formed the basis of both the BAAPCD and MTC
projections. These assigned areas of responsibility were not firmly
established and could be changed to suit future planning efforts and
goal s.
2-17
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Chapter 3
ORGANIZATION FOR
THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Analysis of alternative oxidant control strategies is a complex
task, particularly when a grid-based photochemical model is the primary
analytical tool. To quantitatively handle spatial and temporal
variations in emissions under both existing and projected future
conditions, as well as to simulate the effects of a wide variety of
control strategies, a system of computer-based models was assembled.
In the plan development sequence from analysis to policy
recommendations, the technical system was used to provide quantitative
information in four critical areas:
1) The Baseline Projection - Both short range (1985)* and
Tong range (2000)* estimates of oxidant air quality were
made using a baseline projection that assumed the
continuation of plausible regional growth trends,
current local development policies, and existing or
scheduled technological control regulations. By
comparing the results of this projection with the
Federal oxidant standard, the need for additional
controls were determined;
2) Emissions Sensitivity Analysis - The sensitivity of
projected future air quality to changes in hydrocarbon
and NOx emission levels was tested to determine the
approximate degree of emission reductions which would be
necessary to meet the air quality standard (expressed in
terms of tons of pollutants per day);
3) Effectiveness of Alternative Control Strategies - A
broad spectrum of land use, transportation, and
technological control alternatives was tested for
effectiveness in improving future air quality;
*It should be pointed out that attainment dates mandated by the Clean
Air Act Amendments of 1977 are 1982 and 1987. 1985 and 2000 were
selected for baseline projections in the study before the passage of the
1977 amendments. The recently revised AQMP for the San Francisco Bay
Area has interpolated the results of 1985 projections to 1982.
3-1
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4) Assessment of Alternative Control Strategies - The
assessment of the air quality strategies tested involved
the identification, and quantification where possible,
of the potential impacts in four general areas of
interest: environmental, financial/institutional, social
and economic.
Models from four agencies—ABAG, MTC, BAAPCD, and LLL--made up the
technical modeling system. The models were coordinated in terms of
their inputs and outputs, data bases and consistency of assumptions.
The modeling system was organized into four groups of models as shown in
Figure 3-1:
o Population, employment, housing, and land use models
maintained by ABAG (3-1);
o Travel demand models maintained by MTC (3-2, 3-3);
o Emission inventory disaggregation models maintained by
BAAPCD and ABAG (3-4) (see Chapter 5);
o Livermore Regional Air Quality Model (LIRAQ) maintained
by BAAPCD and ILL (3-2).
Figure 3-2 is a more detailed representation of the system
components.
The models first projected and distributed a number of variables in
space and time: population, employment, housing, land use, and
transportation. These variables were used to estimate emissions by the
major source categories. The Livermore Regional Air Quality Model
(LIRAQ), which is a grid-based photochemical diffusion model, then
combined these emissions along with information about the Bay Region's
meteorology and topography to generate estimates of regional air
pollution concentrations for the base year (1975), the short term
(1985), and the long-term (2000).
3-2
-------
Figure 3-1
OVERVIEW OF AQMP MODELING SYSTEM
THE AQMP MODELING SYSTEM
POPULATION,
EMPLOYMENT,
& LAND USE
PROJECTION
MODELS
TRAVEL
DEMAND
MODELS
STATIONARY
& MOBILE
SOURCE
EMISSIONS
INVENTORY
MODELS
LIRAQ
AIR
QUALITY
MODEL
REGIONAL
fc. AIR
POLLUTION
CONCENTRATIONS
CO
OJ
ABAG
LOCAL
DEVELOPMENT
POLICY
SURVEY
INITIAL
& BOUNDARY
POLLUTANT
CONCENTRA-
TIONS
METEOROLOGY
&
TOPOGRAPHY
EMISSION
RATES
REGIONAL
GROWTH
TRANSPORTATION
NETWORK
PRESENT &
FUTURE
BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
-------
Figure 3-2
THE AQMP MODELING SYSTEM
POPULATION,
HOUSING.
EMPLOYMENT.
AND LAND
USE MODELS
DISTRIBUTION
OF POPULATION.
HOUSING,
EMPLOYMENT
LAND USE
TRAVEL
DEMAND
MODELS
TRIP
GENERATION
&
DISTRIBUTION
MODEL
MODAL
CHOICE
MODEL
A
NS>
fPORTATION
^CONTROL PLANj
POLICY
ASSUMP-
TIONS^
NOTE:
DOTTED LINES INDICATE WHERE OUTPUTS HERE USED AS GUIDES
FOR ADJUSTING INPUTS FROM OTHER SOURCES
EMISSION
INVENTORY
DISAGGREGA
TION
MODELS
LIRAQ
AIR
QUALITY
MODEL
NFORMATI
ABOUT KNOWN
POINT SOURC
EMITTERS
REGIONAL
AIR
POLLUTION
CONCEN-
TRATIONS
MOBILE
EMISSIONS
FACTORS
INITIAL
ft BOUNDARY
POLLUTANT
CONCENTRATIONS
METEOROLOGY
ft
TOPOGRAPHY
AIRCRAFT
EMISSIONS
FACTORS
-------
Given the wide variety of human activities that give rise to air
pollution, any projection of future air quality must account for changes
in these activities as well as changes in the technology of air
pollution control.
ABAC'S POPULATION, HOUSING, EMPLOYMENT AND LAND USE MODELS
The process of determining present and future hydrocarbon and NO
/\
(oxides of nitrogen) emissions begins with the distribution and size of
urban activities. The ABAG models provide a set of population, housing,
employment, and land use projections for the nine county San Francisco
Bay Region. The projections are made from 1975 to 2000 in five-year
intervals. Additionally, they are spatially allocated to a system of
440 subregional zones which cover the region, as shown in Figure 3-3.
Each zone is composed of one or more census tracts.
As shown in Figure 3-2, the ABAG projection system is comprised of
four major models:
o Regional demographic model - projects regional
population, households, and labor force;
o Regional econometric model - projects regional basic and
local serving employment;
o Basic employment model (BEMOD) - allocates basic
employment to 440 zones;
o Projective land use model (PLUM) - allocates population,
households, and local serving employment to 440 zones.
The regional demographic and econometric models were first operated
to produce regional projections, or control totals. These control
totals were then allocated to the 440 zones using BEMOD and PLUM.
Initially, the regional assumptions were varied to yield a range of
3-5
-------
Figure 3-3
440 ZONE SYSTEM FOR
LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION
MODELING OF THE
SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION
\
3-6
-------
projections; later, the subregional land use assumptions were modified
to yield different distributional patterns.
At the regional level, the demographic model combined assumptions
regarding fertility, mortality, migration, household headship, and labor
force participation to produce projections of population, households and
labor force. The econometric model combined assumptions about the
regional industrial structure and projections of national industrial
growth to produce projections of employment for fourteen basic and four
local-serving employment categories. Several iterations of the two
regional models were required in order to balance the labor force
projections from the demographic model with the employment projections
from the econometric model.
The regional projections were then allocated to the subregional
zones. BEMOD first allocates the fourteen basic employment projections.
This allocation was based on the location of existing industry, an
inventory of available land for industrial development, and
characteristics of the land which influence its attractiveness such as
services and accessibility. PLUM then combined this distribution of
basic employment along with the regional control totals to allocate
population, households, and local-serving employment to zones.
The major controlling assumptions for the subregional allocation
were provided through a 1976 survey of local land development policies.
The cities, counties, and special districts in the region were surveyed
to determine their current policy instruments in force—i.e., their
legal, financial, and administrative means — for encouraging or
restricting development. These same policies were subsequently modified
to test a "compact growth" land use management strategy.
3-7
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The resultant distribution of population, households, employment
and related land use were supplied to the travel demand and emission
inventory models.
THE TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING SYSTEM
The travel demand forecasting models, maintained and operated by
the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) provided two key
outputs for air quality evaluation: a trip table indicating the number
of daily trips originating and ending in each 440 zone, and a coded
highway network indicating traffic volumes and average speeds on each
highway segment in the network. Primary inputs to these models included
the distribution of urban activities from the ABAG projection system;
base year travel patterns, present and future transportation networks
and transportation control plan assumptions. The trip ends and highway
link assignments are used by the emission inventory disaggregation
models to generate mobile source emissions. Additionally, MTC performs
regional airport planning which was used to estimate airport emissions.
The MTC system has four major models which are common among travel
demand models:
o Trip Generation Model - Trip generation is the process of
relating a number of trip origins and destinations to
characteristics of the population and land use. Based on
the population, housing, employment, income and land use
characteristics of the various zones within the region,
the trip generation model specifies the number of daily
trips beginning and ending in each zone.
o Trip Distribution Model - Trip distribution is the
process by which trips originating in each zone are
distributed to the 440 zones in the region (including the
zone of origin). Primary factors influencing the
distribution are the growth of land use and urban
activities within particular zones and the transit and
highway accessibilities among the zones.
3-8
-------
o Modal Choice Model - The proportion of total daily trips
that would be made as auto driver; auto passenger, and
transit rider are determined by the modal choice model.
This model incorporates the behavioral characteristics of
the trip makers in terms of their responses to time and
monetary costs associated with each trip. These costs
are estimated for each alternative network depending upon
the highway and transit facilities and services
specified.
o Network Assignment Model - Network assignment is the
process of routing trips to specific highway and transit
links. This model allocates the trips to the
pre-specified highway and transit networks to determine
specific volumes and transit ridership in specific areas.
EMISSION INVENTORY DISAGGREGATION MODELS
The Bay Area Air Pollution Control District (BAAPCD) and ABAG
collaborated to develop the emission inventory disaggregation models.
The emission categories have been grouped into four major categories for
input to LIRAQ-stationary point, area, mobile, and airport emissions.
The models are described below (see Reference 3-4 for a more detailed
description of emission inventory procedures):
o Stationary Point and Area Source Emissions - Stationary
sources are divided into point and area source categories
as a means of reducing the effort required to account for
all of the individual sources. Those sources which emit
a relatively large amount of pollutants are accounted for
individually and are referred to as major point sources.
Emissions from the more numerous smaller emitters are
estimated in a collective fashion for an entire source
type, such as domestic space heaters.
The basic procedure for projecting future emissions is
the same for both stationary point and area source
categories. The growth or decline of activity for a
given source category is, in most cases, assumed to be
related proportionally to changes in one or more of the
variables in the ABAG projections. For example, chemical
processing emissions are assumed proportional to
employment in the chemical processing industry, while
domestic fuel combustion emissions are assumed
3-9
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proportional to population. In addition to the basic
assumption of proportionality, changes in the emission
rate per unit of activity for a given source category may
be superimposed to account for improvements in control
technology or changes in the type of fuel used.
o Motor Vehicle Emissions - Vehicular activity data from
the MTC travel demand modeling system is divided into
five basic categories:
- auto trip-making activity by the 440 zones
- auto travel by link
- gasoline truck travel by link
- diesel truck travel by link
- motorcycle travel by link
This division is required because each of the vehicle
types has different sets of emissions, vehicle
population, and age distribution data. In the particular
case of automobiles, an additional category of
trip-related emissions (cold start, hot start and hot
soak) has been included so that separate spatial and
temporal accounting of trip-end related emissions may be
made.
o Aircraft Emissions - Three general categories for
aircraft (commercial carriers, military, and general
aviation) were established based on availability of
aircraft activity data. Base year commercial carrier
emissions were estimated using comprehensive flight
schedules for each airport in the region. Emissions from
military operations were based on fuel usage data, while
general aviation emissions were estimated based on
selected individual airport records. Future year
emissions were based primarily on MTC's Regional Airport
Study.
LIVERMORE REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MODEL (LIRAQ)
The set of computer codes, which together comprise the Livermore
Regional Air Quality (LIRAQ) model, have been developed as an
operational tool to assist in tasks such as assessing the compliance of
present air quality with Federal ambient air quality standards,
evaluating the impact on regional air quality of various land use
alternatives, and predicting the effect on regional air quality of
various emission control strategies.
3-10
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The LIRAQ model attempts to treat most of the important factors
that determine regional air quality as a function of time (3-5). The
San Francisco Bay Area is characterized by both its complex topography
and its changing meteorology. The region has quite intricate geographic
features, including numerous ridges, hills, valleys, the Pacific Ocean,
a central bay and major inland flats. Meteorological systems formed
over the Pacific Ocean are influenced by the complex Bay Area topography
to create complicated, temporally and spatially varying wind fields, and
inversion base heights. The model treats both the complex topography
and changing meteorology on one of the several available grid scales (1
km or greater) from which the user may choose to study a particular air
quality problem. The model does not attempt to forecast tomorrow's air
quality, because that would require the capability to forecast the
regional meteorology, a formidable problem in itself. Instead, in
LIRAQ, the meteorology (wind speed and direction, atmospheric
transmi ssivi ty, and mixing depth) must be specified, either at
measurement stations or by coordinates. Typically, this involves use of
real meteorological situations (based on sets of previously acquired
meteorological observations) that may be expected to be similar to
future weather patterns.
The simulation of photochemical air quality is based on a 51-step
reaction set. In addition, secondary species (those created through
chemical transformation processes in the atmosphere) including ozone
(0 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO ) and others must be and are treated by the
O £>
LIRAQ model.
Because of the complex and non-uniform characteristics of the Bay
Area (and to some extent of every region) and because a regional pattern
3-11
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is needed instead of a measure of air quality at a specific point, the
mathematical approach that has been used is based on the establishment
of a fixed grid in the two horizontal dimensions. Because the depth of
air through which pollutants mix is highly variable in space and time
and in addition may intersect topography, the model has had to be
limited to treatment of a single layer in the vertical. The height of
this layer, however, may vary in space and time.
The LIRAQ model is thus capable of simulating the time-and-space
varying concentrations of non-reactive and reactive pollutants on a
regional basis using prescribed meteorology and source emissions.
SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS
The enormous number of variables potentially affecting future
oxidant levels in a major metropolitan area such as the San Francisco
Bay Region is one reason to use a computer-based forecasting system.
Such an approach has two principal advantages: 1) it provides a
systematic structure for organizing and accounting for a large number of
variables; and 2) the system allows flexibility to test many alternative
control strategies.
However, it was recognized that the models have certain limitations
and were only partial representations of urban phenomena. To maintain
consistency of assumptions and data bases and to oversee model
development and the interpretation of results, two technical advisory
committees were used—the AQMP and Projections Technical Advisory
Committee. These committees met regularly over a two-year period to
review, coordinate and guide the technical work leading to the staff
prepared policy recommendations.
3-12
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The models were controlled by various assumptions. A set of
baseline assumptions were first specified for problem Identification and
as a starting point for testing alternative strategies. These
assumptions are generalized 1n Figure 3-1. They begin with the regional
growth assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, migration, the
regional industrial structure, and the region's share of national
industrial growth. At the subregional level, the major assumptions
affecting the distribution of urban activities were supplied through a
1976 local development policy survey that identified the current policy
instruments in force--i.e., the legal, financial, and administrative
means—for encouraging or restricting development. Other information
affecting the subregional distribution included an inventory of vacant
industrial lands and transit and highway facilities and services.
The travel demand models used the distribution of urban activities
along with transportation network system descriptions for the 1975 base
and future years. The future year assumptions were provided by MTC
staff through interpretation of the MTC regional transportation plan.
The emission inventory disaggregation models combined the
distribution of urban activities and travel patterns along with
assumptions about current and future technological controls. The
baseline assumptions included only technological controls either
currently in force or legally mandated.
Finally, the LIRAQ model used the emissions estimates, along with
assumptions about meteorology and topography and initial and boundary
pollutants concentrations. The specification of initial and boundary
conditions for future year simulations was an important part of the
3-13
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analysis. Concentrations of pollutants at the boundaries of a
metropolitan area are poorly known quantities, yet they have a
significant influence on the results.
The preliminary recommendations resulting from the testing and
assessment were then forwarded to the decision-making bodies for their
consideration. Once the policy recommendations were made, limited
reruns were made with the technical system due to the time required in
relation to committee deliberations. The modified results, along with
staff judgement, were used to determine the implications of the policy
changes.
In Figure 3-4, each of the individual strategies are shown as they
affected specific baseline assumptions described earlier. In the short
term (1985) transportation controls (without land use measures) were
tested. This was because it was assumed that the effect of land use
measures, or "compact development," would be minimal in the short term.
In the long term, transportation and land use measures were tested
together. Land use actions were dependent on transportation
improvements and vice versa.
The technological improvements for stationary and mobile sources
were developed and their effects on emissions completed. Similarly, the
effects of land use and transportation were analyzed directly by the
ABAG and MTC models and then translated into emission changes. Emission
inventories were reconstructed based on the control measures, and the
resulting air Quality was orojected by LIRAQ.
3-14
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Figure 3-4
Control strategy testing with
the AQMP Modeling System
The AQMP Modeling System
r~
ABAC
Local
Policy
Survey
ABAC
Series in
population,
employment,
&
land use
forecasts
/*
MTC
travel
demand
forecasts
V
X1
Stationary
and
mobile
source
emissions
inventories
X
S
Air
quality
model
(URAQ)
v ^v /N ^
CO
Alternative
control
strategies
Compact
develop-
ment
scenario
Long
term
transit
service
improve
ments
Short
term
transportation
control
plan
Short
term
technological
improvements
Long
term
technological
improvements
?
r ^
v >
^ 7
^ 7
r >
Candidate control measures
-------
REFERENCES
3-1 Association of Bay Area Governments, "Summary Report - Provisional
Series 3 Projections of Population, Housing, Employment and Land
Use in the San Francisco Bay Region," Berkeley, California, January
1978.
3-2 Cambridge Systematics, Inc., "Travel Model Development Project,"
Phase 2 draft final report prepared for Metropolitan Transportation
Commission, September 1977.
3-3 Urban Mass Transportation Administration, "UMTA Transportation
Planning System - UTPS Course Notes," U.S. Department of
Transportation, Washington, D.C., 1977.
3-4 Perardi, T.E., Kim, M.Y., Leong, E.Y. and Wada, R.Y., "Preparation
and Use of Spatially and Temporally Resolved Emission Inventories
in the San Francisco Bay Region," presented at the 71st meeting of
Air Pollution Control Association, June 1978.
3-5 MacCracken, M.C., and Sauter, G.D., Eds., "Development of an Air
Pollution Model for the San Francisco Bay Area" - Final Report to
the National Science Foundation, Volumes I and II, Lawrence
Liver-more Laboratory, UCRL-51920, October 1975.
3-16
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Chapter 4
THE AIR QUALITY PROBLEM
Photochemical oxidant, as the contaminant of Initial and deepest
concern in California has now been continuously monitored for 15 years
by the BAAPCD. After peaking in 1965, the oxidant levels showed a clear
downward trend for the past 11 years, despite large annual
weather-induced fluctuations. Days exceeding the Federal one-hour
standard of .08 ppm averaged 131 in the 1965-69 pentad and 85 in the
1970-74 pentad. For the 1975 base year there were 69 days over
standard, and preliminary totals for 1976 show 65 days. Despite more
than 50% improvement over the past decade, oxidant remains the largest
and least tractable problem in terms of air quality maintenance.
For oxidant the maps in Figures 4-1 and 4-2 plot the number of days
over standard in 1975, and for comparison the average values in the
1970-74 pentad. Both maps show minimum excesses (0 to 5 days) along the
coast, but in 1975 the clean band had widened and extended further
inland. Maximums in both cases are over the inland sheltered valleys,
but there were two significant differences. First, the 1975 intensity
of the maximum was 20% lower, decreasing from 60 to 50 days. 1976 data
indicated a further weakening of this maximum to less than 35 days.
Second, the center of the maximum had shifted from the Livermore Valley
to the East Santa Clara Valley. (The 1976 data showed the center
remaining as in 1975, but extending more toward Gilroy than toward
Livermore.)
Since the formation of oxidant is highly weather-dependent, the
District developed a "trend study" technique to damp out the primary
4-1
-------
gt
I
ro
1970-74 MEAN NUMBER
OF DAYS WITH
OXIDANT >.08 ppm.
NUMBER OF DAYS
IN 1975 WITH
OXIDANT >.08 ppm
Figure 4-1
Figure 4-2
-------
weather factors (temperature and Inversion height) and compared the
oxldant levels only for days when these conditions favored its
formation. Results of this study (updated to include 1976) are shown in
Figure 4-3. On oxidant-conducive days, the District average (for our 7
long-term stations) peaked at .10 ppm in 1965 and fell to .06 ppm in
1976. In 1971 this average fell below the Federal standard and has
remained below it ever since. The two long-term stations with averages
remaining over standard are San Jose and Liver-more.
The southeastward migration of highest values over the years was
another noteworthy feature of the oxidant trend graph. San Leandro led
(with over .15 ppm) in 1964; Livermore led (with over .14 ppm) in 1968
and 1969; San Jose led (with .11 to .13 ppm) in 1974 and 1975. These
highest station averages fortunately decreased at nearly the same rate
as the overall District average. The reasons for the shift appeared to
be related to the 15-year shifts in population and vehicle use, and to
the changes in emission mix and emission patterns. Additionally, the
increases in emissions of primary contaminants had been into the
sheltered valleys topographically and meteorologically least favorable
for mixing and dispersion.
4-3
-------
.10
.08
M
.06
.04
.02
0 - D District Average
F - F San Francisco
A - A San Leandro
L-L Livermore
J - J San Jose
R - R Redwood City
M-M San Rafael
C-C Walnut Creek
M
62
YEAH
63
64
65
66
67
68
70
72
73
75
Figure 4-3
Trend of Average High-Hour Oxidant Concentrations For Days With Comparable Temperature & Inversion Conditions
(April through October Photochemical Oxidant Seasons 1962-1976)
4-4
-------
Chapter 5
COMPILING EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
Any systematic approach to air pollution control requires
compilation of some kind of emissions inventory. The source inventory
helps to define the problems in terms of which pollutants should be
considered, which sources are important, and what control measures might
be effective. An updated source inventory can be used, together with
meteorological information, to model and predict ambient air quality
effects for planning purposes.
Existing source inventories vary greatly in their detail,
methodology, and accuracy, depending on the intended use and available
resources. A typical source inventory might include ten or twenty
source categories, with geographical distribution by county, and
emission rate units of tons/day or tons/year. More detailed information
on some major point sources may be compiled by local jurisdictions for
internal use for EPA's National Emissions Data System/Emission Inventory
Subsystem (NEDS/EIS).
The BAAPCD source inventory (5-1) is relatively sophisticated in
degree of detail, methodology and documentation. It includes, for
example, 107 separate categories for source classification. The AQMP
effort utilized this comprehensive inventory as a starting point for the
modeling effort; however, extensive modifications and disaggregation
were still needed to achieve the spatial and temporal resolution
required for the LIRAQ model.
LIRAQ (5-2) is an Eulerian (grid-based) regional model. LIRAQ-2,
the photochemical version is run with a 20 x 20 grid with squares 5 km
5-1
-------
on an edge. The total area covered in a given run is 100 km x 100 km or
10,000 km. Since LIRAQ can also be run on 1 km or 2 km grid squares,
the original emission files are kept on a 1-km grid basis, then
aggregated to an 2-km or 5-km basis, as needed. The total inventory
area, excluding ocean, is approximately 20,000 sq km -- nine counties
around the San Francisco Bay.
As shown in Figure 5-1 the LIRAQ source inventory is made up from
four component parts, each part compiled with independent data sources
and techniques. The four components are: major point sources, area
sources, airports, and mobile sources. Major point sources include oil
refineries, electric utilities, chemical industry, metallurgy, rock and
mineral operations, etc.—any stationary source emitting more than 0.1
ton/day or 25 tons/year of any pollutant. Such sources are identified
and listed separately in the existing source inventory, with accurate
information on location, emissions, stack parameters, operation
schedules, and process variability. Area sources, also called
"population-distributed" emissions, include: domestic fuel combustion,
off-road mobile sources, utility engines, and small stationary sources
such as service stations, dry cleaners, small plastics manufacturing,
etc. Emissions are estimated by a variety of techniques including
direct measurement, natural gas use, solvent sales, gasoline sales,
paint and resin use, etc. Airports include emissions from commercial,
military and general aviation from 37 airports in the Bay area.
Emissions are calculated with factors based on engine type, operating
mode through a five-step landing and takeoff cycle, and traffic counts.
Fuel consumption data is also considered. Mobile sources include cars,
trucks, buses and motorcycles. Emissions include exhaust, crankcase,
5-2
-------
Figure 5-1
Summary schematic of QSOtffile preparation.
rout source inventory componen
Major Point Sources
located on UTM grid
\ 2
/
Link ,-.._ * 3
Population ^ 4
Elevated
f ;"
Surface
Airport
Mobile
ArAO
Area
"- 7
\
7
\
/
wown me
Elevated
OSOR
disaggregated
source inventory
1.2 or 5-km grid.
24-hr variation,
input tor LIRAQ
QSOR is the code name for the final disaggregated source inventory file
which serves as input to the Livermore Air Quality Model.
5-3
-------
tire wear, and evaporative—during starting, over-the-road travel, and
trip-end soak.
Table 5-1 shows the relative contributions of the four source
inventory components for the 1975 baseline inventory. Focusing on the
organic emissions, which are most important in oxidant control, it is
clear that mobile and area sources are the largest contributors. These
two categories are also the most complex, unfortunately, for emissions
estimates and spatial and temporal resolution. It should be noted that
errors in distribution do not change the total mass of pollutant
emissions, only the location and timing. In this case, the LIRAQ model
is intended for regional photochemical modeling (as opposed to local
plume modeling), so small distribution errors should not be critical.
MAJOR POINT SOURCES
In general the major point sources present no serious problems in
spatial distribution. One can pinpoint their locations with a street
map and USGS map and read the UTM coordinates to the nearest 0.1 km.
Major point sources are carried as separate listings and are further
divided into "surface" and "elevated" categories, depending on the stack
height. The dividing line is 100 feet. The elevated major point
sources remain as individual listings in the final source inventory
file, called QSOR (see Figure 5-1). Surface major point sources are
merged with emissions from the other three source inventory components.
The hourly and seasonal process variations of major point sources
are generally known. Because these are large individual emitters, they
are subject to intense scrutiny from regulatory agencies. And by the
nature of large operations, there are usually reliable internal process
5-4
-------
Table 5.1 San Francisco Bay Area source inventory; four component
breakdown as 1n QSOR file preparation
Source Type
1975 Baseline Emissions (tons/day)
Major point
Area
Ai rport
Mobile
Total
Organics
129
394
23
467
1013
NOX (as N02)
192
101
13
390
696
CO
80
336
54
3808
4278
S02
198
12
1
19
230
Parti cul ate
19
98
9
43
169
aQSOR is the code name for the final disaggregated source inventory
file which serves as input to the Livermore Air Quality Model.
5-5
-------
records and accounting data available to serve as a basis for emission
rate calculations. Electric utilities, for example, maintain detailed
records of fuel consumption by boiler, and generator output by hour.
Most major industries and businesses have records of production,
fuel-use, work-shifts, etc., which are indicators of emissions
variations. Major point source emissions for the chosen day are
allocated by hour according to data of this kind, when available. If
individual process records are not available, the source inventory
engineer may estimate diurnal variations, based on his knowledge of the
source operation.
AIRPORTS
Like major point sources, airports are also at known locations.
Because some landing and take-off emissions are spread out within the
mixing layer, airport emissions were distributed over neighboring grid
squares. For commercial and military flights, emissions were
distributed uniformly over all grid squares within 2 miles of the
airport. For general aviation at community airports, a distance of 1
mile was used.
Aircraft emissions are divided into three source inventory
classifications: commercial carriers, military, and general aviation.
Commercial carriers are most important from an emissions viewpoint, and
fortunately these are also the best documented. Comprehensive schedule
books keep up-to-date listings of commercial flights to all the major
airports of the world, with arrival and departure times and aircraft
type. For this project, BAAPCD staff compiled data on commercial air
carrier operations at Bay Area airports from the 1975 "North American
5-6
-------
Air Guide." Temporal resolution factors for the three large airports
v
(San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose) were based on this data.
Operations data for military flights were based on very limited
information. Emission estimates were based on fuel usage data (5-3),
but actual daily flight schedules are unpredictable and not publicized.
For the four military airports in the Bay area, hourly operations were
estimated to be 90 percent during daylight hours and 10 percent night
flights.
General aviation operations, mostly private single-engine aircraft,
are also difficult to predict. In this project, general aviation
emissions were uniformly distributed over daylight hours for 28 smaller
community airports, and extended to include some early morning and late
evening flights at busier Hayward and Buchanan Fields. Hourly traffic
counts on airport approach roads were used to check the diurnal patterns
of general aviation.
Since military and general aviation together form only about 1
percent of the total organic inventory, the assumed hourly distributions
are considered adequate for present purposes.
AREA SOURCES
Area sources constitute another major challenge for spatial
resolution. Among the 107 activity classifications in the BAAPCD source
inventory, 58 include some area source contributions. Some of these are
listed in Table 5-2. The total area source tonnage is substantial (see
Table 5-1), but the location of the individual small sources is by
definition distributed in some fashion over the geographical region of
interest. Various alternatives for spatial resolution might be
5-7
-------
Table 5-2, Excerpts3 from the cross-classification table used for spatial distribution
of area source emissions.
Tabled values represent the percentage of the area source emissions (from a given
source classification) to be distributed with the indicated Series 3 variable.
Blanks are zeros-
en
i
CO
Area Source Classification
No
18
19
29
31
35
36
40
87
Description
Farming operations
Food/agric. proc.
Org. solv. storage
Indus, coating, solv.
Degreasers
Dry cleaning, perc.
Printing
Lawn mowers
tonsc
-
6.1
10.9
99.2
42.4
13.9
10.2
5.5
Series 3 Categories
17 9 11 12 13
Dwell. Agric. Print. Food Elec/opt. Fabr.
units forest publish prod. equip. metal
100
100
20 20
10 10 50
10 60
100
100
23 24
Retail Other
serv. serv.
5
5
20 10
100
aThe full cross-classification table has 58 area source classifications and 19 Series 3 variable
categories. (Numbering is not serial.)
t*ABAG Series 3 Projections of population, employment, etc.
cArea source organics emissions, tons/day, for a summer weekday. Other pollutants have different
emission rates but use the same distribution percentages.
-------
considered (5-4, 5-5). The simplest would be to distribute the area
source component uniformly over land area. This technique might be
acceptable for a fairly uniform residential or agricultural area, but
the great diversity of the Bay Area (cities, water, mountains,
•
industrial and residential areas, etc.) precludes this method. The next
level of complexity would be to distribute area emissions proportional
to population. This would be a great improvement, but some major flaws
remain. Most census data concerns residential population only and would
thus displace the many non-major point sources which operate in
industrial and commercial areas. Also spatial detail may be limited by
census tract size, especially in sparsely populated areas.
The method actually developed for spatial resolution of area
sources requires a cross classification of source categories with
employment and land use data. A table of coefficients was compiled to
link 58 source activity classifications (those with area source
components) with 19 known employment and land use categories from ABAG's
"Series 3 Projections" (5-6). The process is described in detail in
AQMP/Tech Memo 21 (5-7).
The Series 3 work covers population, housing, employment and land
use in the Bay Area. For the nine counties around San Francisco Bay,
the data are compiled for 440 subregional areas termed "zones," which
are made up of one to approximately seven 1970 census tracts. Housing
is recorded by dwelling unit, and population/employment by 23
categories. The information was derived from census data, local surveys,
fertility and immigration statistics. A list of the Series 3 variables
used to allocate area source emissions is provided in Table 5-3.
5-9
-------
Table 5-3. Summary list of nineteen Series 3a variables used in cross-classification
analysis (for spatial resolution of area source emissions).
Series 3
Variable Code
Variable
Name
SIC"
Classification
Description
en
i
PI
P7
P8
P9
PIC
Pil
P12
P13
P14
P15
P16
P17
P18
P19
P20
P21
P22
P23
P24
DWELL
AGRI
MIN
MFG1
MFG2
MFG3
MFC 4
MFC 5
MFG6
TRAN
WHOL
FIN
SERV 1
SERV 2
GOV
RET
BUS. SERV.
RET. SERV.
OTHER SERV.
it
(not applicable)
1, 7-9
10, 13,
27
26, 28,
20
19, 36,
34, 35,
22-25,
40, 42,
50, 52
62, 63,
73
82, 84,
91, 92
53-59
80, 81,
70, 72,
15-17,
61, 66,
14
29, 32, 33
38
37
31, 39
44-46
67
89
96
75-79
41, 47-49, 60,
93-95, 99
Dwelling units
Agriculture, Forestry
Mining, quarry, oil & gas extraction
Printing, publishing
Petrol., chem. , paper, metal industries
Food and kindred products
Electrical, optical, machinery & instr
Fabricated metal products
Textiles, apparel, wood, leather
Transportation (non-auto), pipelines
Wholesale trade,- building material
Financial, insurance
Business services
Educ. service, museums, galleries
Government
General merchandise & food stores
Health, legal, admin, services
Hotels, personal service, repairs
*
Construction, transit, utilities, banking
real estate, other
aABAG Series 3 Projections of population employment, etc
^Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1972.
-------
Before It could be used as a basis for area source distribution,
the Series 3 data had to be distributed over the 1-km UTM grid system.
This critical step was accomplished by a combination of manual and
computer techniques. First, regional maps were used to eliminate those
grid squares which are essentially uninhabited. Those areas (bays,
tidelands, marshes, mountains, etc.) comprise about 75 percent of the
total area. Series 3 variables were then distributed from 440 zones to
the remaining grid squares, which total 5000 to 6000 sq. km of developed
or developable land. The exact total depends on the year being
considered.
A cross-classification table was then developed to link certain
types of area sources with appropriate Series 3 variables. For some
source classifications a direct correspondence could be found. For
<
example, BAAPCD source category number 18 "Farming Operations" could be
linked with Series 3 employment category P7 "AGRI" which includes
agricultural production and services. Similarly, source classification
number 40 "Printing" could be distributed with Series 3 "MFG1" which is
printing, publishing and related industries. In most cases, however,
the source classification did not fit clearly with a single Series 3
variable. For these cases, professional judgment was employed to
produce a multiple distribution formula, so that area source emissions
from a single source classification could be distributed with two or
more Series 3 variables. For example, source classification number 35
"Degreasers" provides area emissions of 42 tons/day of organics. These
were distributed as follows: 60 percent with MFG5 (fabricated metal
products), 20 percent with RET, SERV. (retail and services including
auto repairs), 10 percent with MFG4 (manufacturing including electrical
5-11
-------
and optical equipment), and 10 percent with OTHER SERV. (including local
transit and transportation services). Excerpts from the classification
table are shown as Table 5-2. The percentage values were chosen by
BAAPCD engineers, based on their knowledge of local industry conditions.
Area source emissions were distributed and then totaled for each
Series 3 category (for each pollutant). Totals were divided by the
known total population of the category to produce a per capita emission
rate. As an example, for the 394 tons/day of organics for area source
distribution (see Table 5-1), the total for Series 3 category P9, from
all source classifications, was 20.75 tons/day. The total employment
population in P9 (printing and publishing) was 25,170, so the per capita
emission factor was .00082 tons/day of organics per printing/publishing
employee. The per capita emission rates, for each Series 3 category and
each pollutant, were then used with the known Series 3 population
distributions to produce the area source spatial resolution. Results
were checked by summing area source emissions over all grid squares.
The totals must agree with total area source emissions (Table 5-1) used
as a starting point.
It should be noted that changes in the percentage values shown in
Table 5-2 do not change the amount of area source emissions (as long as
the entries sum across to 100 percent). Only the distribution of the
emissions would be changed.
The hourly distribution of area sources is based on diurnal
variation coefficients for each source classification. These
coefficients were compiled by engineers in the BAAPCD source inventory
group. Weighted hourly variation factors were produced by multiplying
area emissions per classification by the diurnal variation factors of
5-12
-------
each classification. The resulting (normalized) set of factors were
then used for temporal resolution of all area source emissions.
MOTOR VEHICLES
The calculation of motor vehicle emissions is logically divided
into two separate parts. The first part deals with emissions which
occur on major streets and highways from vehicle engines that are fully
"warmed-up" (i.e., hot stabilized). The second part covers emissions
which occur primarily at the beginning and end of each trip due to
different engine operating characteristics. These emissions are
referred to as cold start, hot start, and hot soak. The data required
to compute each of these two aspects of motor vehicle emissions are
quite different, as are their resulting geographic and hourly
distributions.
The highway- or "1ink"-related hot stabilized emissions were
computed using modified versions of two computer codes previously
developed for the Federal Highway Administration (5-8). The trip-end
related emissions were computed through the use of programs developed at
ABAG (5-9). The overall sequence of operation and input data
requirements and sources for both codes are summarized in Figure 5-1.
As shown, each set of programs outputs emissions on an hourly basis,
geographically distributed by one kilometer UTM grid squares. The two
data sets are then merged for input to the air quality model (LIRAQ).
For input, both codes require transportation data from the Metropolitan
Transportation Commission (MTC) and emission factors from the California
Air Resources Board. A summary of baseline transportation data inputs
is shown in Table 5-4.
5-13
-------
TABLE 5-4. SUMMARY OF BASELINE TRANSPORTATION DATA INPUTS TO
MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS ESTIMATION
PARAMETER YEAR
1965 1975 1985 20001
VEHICLE TRIPS
o Homebased work 1,706,983 2,144,693 2,542,951 3,038,406
o Non-work 5,370,480 6,904,098 8,215,373 9,859,449
o LDV Total 7,077,463 9,048,791 10,758,324 12,897,855
VEHICLE MILES
o Homebased work 14,055,453 20,199,644 23,645,050 30,309,087
o Non-work 27,873,495 40,623,164 52,516,997 73,350,341
o LDV sub-total 41,928,948 60,822,808 76,162,047 103,659,428
o HDV @ 12.8 % 5,366,905 7,785,319 9,748,742 13,268,407
o Total VMT 47,295,853 68,608,127 85,910,789 116,927,835
1 Provisional Series III Base Case 1 Alternative
5-14
-------
The motor vehicle emission factors used were derived through the
use of a California Air Resources Board emission factor program, EMFAC3.
This program was, in turn, based on EPA's Supplement 5* to AP-42, with
some minor modifications.
The EMFAC3 program computed composite emission factors for HC and
NOX in units of grams per mile. It provided emission factor estimates
for average route speeds from 5 to 50 mph, ambient temperatures from 20
to 80° F, and any desired mix of cold and hot start operation. Factors
could be for a weighted average of four vehicle types (light duty auto,
light duty truck, heavy duty gasoline, heavy duty diesel) or for each
vehicle type.
ARB's EMFAC3 was the basis for computing the AQMP mobile source
emission factors.** However, a number of variables, which vary with
geographical location and estimation situation, can affect emissions
estimates considerably: average vehicle speed, ambient temperature,
type of vehicle, percentages of cold and hot start trips and percent of
travel by vehicle age (see Figure 5-2). Therefore, localized correction
factors reflecting these variables were developed based on Bay Area
conditions.
Speed and ambient temperature correction factors were developed
from formulas provided in EPA's Supplement 5 to AP-42. Estimates of
**
n"his supplement has been replaced by Mobile Source Emission Factors,
EPA-400/9-78-005, March, 1978.
These factors were subsequently adjusted to incorporate EPA's draft
Supplement 8 factors (June 1977). The latest revision to the
Supplement (March 1978) was not available in time to be used in the
analysis.
5-15
-------
Figure 5-2
Organization of the motor vehicle emissions code
A. LINK EMISSIONS COMPONENT
B. TRIP-END EMISSIONS COMPONENT
MTC Link
Output
ARB
ARB
B
N
f
ABAG
VEM
~ >
f
A
Hourly 7
UTM L-
Gridded
Emissons
Hourly
UTM
Gridded
Emissions
Merge
Outputs
For
Mobile
OSOR
E /SATS
LINK EMISSIONS
Required input data:
A — State plane/UTM transform
B — Emission and deterioration factors for
each model year for 1975, 1985, 2000
C — Motorcycle emission factors, SO2 and
paniculate emission factors for all veh-
icles, weighted average for 1975,
1965, 2000.
D — Updated speed correction equations
for LDV, HDV, diesel.
E — Percentage truck and motorcycle VMT
by hour and functional road type
TRIP-END EMISSIONS
Required input data:
A — Origin-destination trip tables for each
travel model run (including intrazonal)
B — Hourly distribution of trip starts by trip
purpose for four soak periods
C — Intrazonal VMT per zone
D — Cold start, hot soak emission factors
for 1975, 1985, 2000 (weighted aver-
age over vehicle population)
E — Hot-soak period distribution
F — 440 zone/1 km grid conversion
ABAG = Association of Bay Area Governments
ABAGVEM = name of computer code with vehicle emission factors
ARB = California Air Resources Board
BAGRID = computer code to distribute link emissions to grid squares
CALTRANS = California Department of Transportation
LIRAQ = Livermore Air Quality Model
MTC = Metropolitan Transportation Commission
QSOR = name of source inventory file for LIRAQ model
SATS = Sacramento Area Transportation Study
UTM = Universal Transverse Mercator coordinate system
5-16
-------
link speeds and the distribution of vehicle types were provided by the
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Assumptions for the average
ambient temperature were a compromise between the average summer
minimums and the maximums observed at different regional locations. The
ambient temperature correction factor was insensitive to temperatures
above 80° F- Vehicle age distributions and pollution control equipment
deterioration rates (provided by EMFAC3) were also incorporated into the
emission factors.
Link Emissions
A highway link system (for 1975 and updated for 1985 and 2000) and
a transportation model to forecast travel volumes on each link were the
basis for the link emissions calculations. Both the link systems and the
transportation model were provided by MTC (see Chapter 3 for
description). As previously stated, a modified version of FHWA computer
code, called SAPOLLUT, was used to actually compute the link emissions,
given the appropriate link information and the emission factors (5-8).
The modified model, called ABAGVEM, computed estimates of speed on the
highway network according to the volume/capacity ratio on each link, for
each hour. These speed estimates determined the appropriate speed
correction factor to apply.
ABAGVEM also provided diurnal traffic distributions and the
distribution of vehicle types on different road types. Five types of
vehicles were examined: light duty auto (LDA), light duty truck (LOT),
heavy duty gasoline-powered vehicle (HDG), heavy duty diesel-powered
vehicle (HDD) and motorcycle. The distribution of total VMT among the
various vehicle types was obtained from ARB as follows:
5-17
-------
Vehicle Type Percent of Light Duty Vehicle
VMT (IDA + LDTT
LDA , 86.2%
LOT 13.8%
HDG 8.6%
HDD 4.2%
Motorcycle 0.9%
Finally, a separate program read the output from ABAGVEM (i.e., the
hourly and total daily link emissions for the entire network) and
performed the following:
o converted the State plan coordinates of the MTC network
to the UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator) coordinates
required for LIRAQ.
o allocated the link emissions into three LIRAQ-defined
reactivity classes
o wrote an output file in a format suitable for input to
LIRAQ
Trip End Emissions
A separate computer program for estimating trip end emissions
produced hot start, cold start and hot soak emissions by zone and hour
of day (see Figure 5-3). It also computed hot stabilized emissions for
intrazonal (i.e., within the zone) trips. The basis for the emissions
computations was a trip generation table which was developed by the MTC
transportation model. From this table the program computed the number
of trip starts (i.e., origins) and stops (i.e., destinations). The
emissions rates were determined as a function of the parking (or
shutdown) time before and after a trip (for the start and stop trips,
respectively) and whether the vehicle was catalyst or non-catalyst
equipped.
5-18
-------
Figure 5-3
Flowchart of trip-end emissions program.
TRIP END EMISSIONS
INPUT
Trip productions/attractions
for each,purpose and zone
I
COMPUTE
Composite hot soak emission factor
for production and attraction ends
PRODUCTION END
COMPUTE
Number of trip starts
by hour, purpose, zone
COMPUTE
Hot start and
cold start emissions
COMPUTE
Number of trip stops
by hour, purpose, zone
COMPUTE
Hot soak emissions
ATTRACTION END
COMPUTE
Number of trip starts
by hour, purpose, zone
COMPUTE
Hot start and cold
start emissions
OUTPUT
Total emissions for each pollutant by hour
COMPUTE
Number of trip stops
by hour, purpose, zone
COMPUTE
Hot soak emissions
5-19
-------
A special study by Caltrans provided parking time profiles by trip
purpose and by trip end (origin or destination). From these profiles
more accurate estimates were made of the percent of trip starts and
stops experiencing hot and cold start and hot soak emissions. The trip
purpose generally differentiated between the work related and therefore
long-term parkers and the non-work, and therefore, short-term parkers
(e.g., shopping, recreational). The trip end identified whether the
vehicle was starting or stopping at the home zone and thus the
likelihood of a long parking period.
In computing trip end emissions, four trip end types were
considered. The work trip is cited as an example:
o the trip origins at the home (i.e., production) end,
where many cold starts take place in the morning
o the trip destinations at the work (i.e., attraction) end,
where many hot soaks take place in the morning
o the trip origins at the work (attraction) end, where many
evening cold starts occur for the return trip
o the evening destinations back at the home (production)
end, where hot soaks occur.
Note that the terms starts and origins, stops and destinations are
used interchangeably.
BASELINE EMISSION TRENDS
The baseline trends for hydrocarbon and Nitrogen Oxides emissions
are shown in Table 5-5 and shown geographically in Figures 5-4 and 5-5,
respectively. For hydrocarbons, the most significant source categories
were organic compounds evaporation (otherwise known as organic solvents)
and both light and heavy duty motor vehicles. Each of these source
5-20
-------
TABLE 5-5. EMISSIONS BY MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORY (TONS/DAY)
1975 1985 2000
MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORY
Petroleum Refining
Chemical
Other Industrial /Commercial
Petroleum Refinery
Evaporation
Gasoline Distribution
Other Organic Compounds
Evaporation (Organic
Solvents)
Combustion of Fuels
Burning of Materials
Off-Highway Mobile Sources
Aircraft
Light-duty Automobiles
Other Motor Vehicles
TOTAL (TON/DAY) 1
HC
25.2
5.5
10.2
46.0
60.4
311.1
8.1
19.8
45.0
19.6
340.1
132.2
,023
NOX
5.9
3.1
2.5
-
-
.
196.0
1.4
59.4
13.5
231.7
167.8
731
HC
41.0
5.6
11.1
50.0
27.1
344.8
11.5
22.2
50.3
20.2
117
96
797
N0x
15.2
2.9
2.7
-
-
—
321.1
1.5
73.7
19.6
89.3
165.8
692
HC
55.4
6.
12.7
52.1
28.2
493.4
15.0
23.6
75.4
27.8
160.6
107.1
1,058
NO
X
20.0
3.9
3.1
-
-
—
279.8
1.7
94.1
32.7
77.1
208.4
721
5-21
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Figure 5-4
HYDROCARBON EMISSION TRENDS
SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION
TONS/DAY
1100i
SOURCE CATEGORY:
1000-
900>
800-
700
600-
500
400f
300-
200-
100
0-
H
G
L
K
J
I
F
D
A
H
c
B
L
K
J
I
F
o
A
G
f-l
C
B
L
K
J
I
F
E
D
A
L-OTHER MOTOR VEHICLE
K-LIGHT DUTY AUTO
J -AIRCRAFT
1 OFF HIGHWAY MORN F ^OIIROF1?
G-COMBUSTION OF FUELS
F-OTHER ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
EVAP. (ORGANIC SOLVENTS)
E -GASOLINE DIST
D-PETROLEUM REFINERY EVAP
C-OTHER IND /COMM
B-CHEMICAL
A-PETROLEUM REFINING
1975
1985
2000
5-22
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Figure 5-5
NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSION TRENDS
SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION
TONS/DAY
800 1
700-
600-
500-
400-
300-
200
•'
H
100-
1975
H
1985
SOURCE CATEGORY:
H
I-OTHER MOTOR VEHICLE
H-LIGHT DUTY AUTO
G-AIRCRAFT
F-QFF-HiG_HWAY MOBILE
E-BURNING OF MATERIALS
D-COMBUSTION OF FUELS
MOTHER IND./COMM.
?LEUM REFINING
2000
5-23
-------
categories had previously been the target of control efforts, and it was
evident that further controls would be necessary if significant air
quality improvement was to be made. Total hydrocarbon emissions were
projected to decrease somewhat by 1985 due to the implementation of
controls now on the books, but to rise back to the 1975 level by the
year 2000.
For oxides of nitrogen, the principal source categories were
stationary source fuel combustion, and light and heavy duty motor
vehicles. NOV emissions were projected to remain at a relatively
s\
constant level over the 25 year planning time frame. By 1985, the
expected increase in stationary source NO emissions due to increased
A
use of fuel oil would be offset by additional motor vehicle NO control.
/\
By 2000, increasing usage of nuclear fuels and/or siting of new power
plants outside the region for electric power was assumed; this
assumption offsets increases in NOV emissions from other source
A
categories.
A summary of the motor vehicle emissions, shown in Table 5-6,
revealed that while automobiles contributed the majority of hydrocarbon
emissions from motor vehicles, heavy duty gasoline and diesel trucks
were significant contributors as well. Another observation was that
emission levels for the pollutants would decline substantially between
1975 and 1985 due to the implementation of current legislated emission
control programs. However, from 1985 to 2000 the overall growth in
vehicular activity would begin to negate the gains made up to 1985. An
additional factor leading to the long-term increase in emissions was the
expected high rate of deterioration of emission control devices for
conventional engines. EPA has projected that future autos meeting the
5-24
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TABLE 5-6
SUMMARY OF BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION PROJECTIONS* (TONS/DAY)
HYDROCARBONS 1975 1985 2000
Tripend 206.0 99.0 127.7
Link 266.3 113.9 140.0
Total 472.3 212.9 267.7
OXIDES OF NITROGEN
Tripend
Link
Total
1975
17.6
381.8
399.4
1985
16.0
239.1
255.1
2000
13.6
271.9
285.5
APPROXIMATE PERCENT OF EMISSIONS FROM EACH VEHICLE
VEHICLE CLASS 1975 1985 2000
HC NOX HC NOX HC NOX
Light duty autos 72% 58% 55% 35% 60% 27%
Light duty trucks and
motorcycles 8% 9% 8% 6% 6% 7%
Heavy duty gas trucks 19% 17% 33% 28% 28% 30%
Heavy duty diesel 1% 17% 5% 30% 5% 36%
* Revised in July, 1977 according toa June, 1977 memo issued by the Acting
Assistant Administrator for Air and Waste Management, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency regarding the revised Motor Vehicle Emission Factors, and a
July, 1977 memo issued by ARB to local AQMP agencies regarding the incorporation
of the revised motor vehicle emission factors into the AQMP phase II effort
5-25
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stringent emission standards when new would not maintain the high degree
of control for very long.
Another significant aspect of the motor vehicle emissions trends
was the contribution of trip-end versus link (or VMT) related emissions.
When a vehicle with a cold engine is started up, the emission rate
during the first few minutes of driving is considerably higher than
after the engine temperature has stabilized. A short trip produces the
same amount of cold start emissions as a long trip, the only difference
being the quantity produced after the engine has warmed up. It was
•*
clear that transportation control strategies had to not only reduce VMT
but to reduce the number of trips.
5-26
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REFERENCES
5.1 Bay Area Air Pollution Control District, "Base Year 1975 Emissions
Inventory, Summary Report," Bay Area Air Pollution Control
District, San Francisco, California, 1976.
5.2
MacCracken, M.C. and Sauter, 6.D., eds., "Development of an Air
Pollution Model for the San Francisco Bay Area," UCRL-51920, Vol.
1., Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, University of California,
Livermore, California, 1975.
5.3 Association of Bay Area Governments/Bay Area Air Pollution Control
District, "Aviation Effect on Air Quality in the Bay Region,"
Association of Bay Area Governments, Berkeley, California, 1971.
5.4 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Guidelines for Air Quality
Maintenance Planning and Analysis, Volume 8: Computer-Assisted
Area Source Emissions Gridding," EPA-450/4-74-009, Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina, 1974.
5.5 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Guidelines for Air Quality
Maintenance Planning and Analysis, Volume 13: Allocating
Projected Emissions to Subcounty Areas," Appendices A and B,
EPA-450/4/74-014A, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, 1974.
5.6 Association of Bay Area Governments, "Summary Report, Provisional
Series 3 Projections," Association of Bay Area Governments,
Berkeley, California, 1977.
5.7 Perardi, T. and Kim, M., "Geographical Distribution of Emissions
from Non-Point (Area) Sources," Tech Memo 21 in Appendix G, Air
Quality Technical Materials, San Francisco Bay Area Environmental
Management Plan, Association of Bay Area Governments, Berkeley,
California, June, 1978.
5.8 Comsis Corporation, "User Documentation for ABAGVEM and BAGRID
Auto Emission Analysis and Summary Programs," developed for
Association of Bay Area Governments, April, 1977.
5.9 Wada, R. and Kan, I., "Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory:
Methodology and Results," Tech Memo 12, in Appendix G, Air Quality
Technical Materials, San Francisco Bay Area Environmental
Management Plan, Association of Bay Area Governments, Berkeley,
California, June 1978.
5.10 Association of Bay Area Governments, "Draft Environmental
Management Plan for the San Francisco Bay Region," Volume I,
Association of Bay Area Governments, Berkeley, California, 1977,
Chapter VI.
5-27
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Chapter 6
PROJECTING AIR QUALITY
The Bay Area oxidant problem is characterized by complex
atmospheric, chemical and topographical interactions. Pollutants
already in the air (initial concentrations) and those added to the air
(source emissions) are transformed into the resulting air quality
(atmospheric pollutant concentrations) through the processes of
atmospheric transport, mixing, chemistry and photochemistry. Each of
these processes usually will have large spatial and temporal variations
caused by topography, diurnal solar cycle, the mix of pollutants, etc.
Previous planning efforts to improve air quality in the Bay Area have
been hindered because the air quality forecasting methods did not take
into account all of these factors and were not technically credible or
defensible. In 1975, the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory* completed the
development of an air pollution model specifically designed to address
the oxidant problems of the Bay Area. LIRAQ (Livermore Regional Air
Quality Model) focused on an accurate simulation of chemical reactions,
pollutant transport, varying meteorology and base inversion heights to
produce detailed pollutant concentrations levels. An inventory of all
existing air quality forecasting methods revealed that LIRAQ was
eminently suited for the task of evaluating effectiveness of control
measures. Thus, LIRAQ formed the technical basis for developing the
oxidant control plan.
*In cooperation with the BAAPCD.
6-1
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In order to properly determine whether controls would satisfy air
quality standards, LIRAQ required a wide variety of source emissions
data on an hourly basis for each grid square covering the region. These
stringent data requirements resulted in the development of a complex
battery of models from numerous sources, which combined to comprise the
AQMP air quality modeling system.
The AQMP air quality modeling system had six components:
o Population, employment, housing and land use models
maintained by ABAG (the ABAG Series 3 Projections
System);
o Travel demand forecasting models maintained by MTC;
o The Emission Inventory and Disaggregation Model s--Motor
Vehicle (ABAG), Aircraft (BAAPCD), Stationary Source
(BAAPCD);
o LIRAQ maintained by the BAAPCD.
The demographic, travel demand and emissions inventory and
disaggregation models have been described in Chapter 3. The following
sections discuss how LIRAQ was used to project future air quality and to
help develop the appropriate control strategies.
THE LIVERMORE REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MODEL
Independent of the AQMP, LIRAQ was developed as an operational tool
to assist in determining whether control strategies complied with
Federal ambient air quality standards. Specifically, given the
emissions patterns and meteorological process, LIRAQ would provide
hourly concentrations of ozone for the Bay Area.
An inventory of air quality models was made at the outset of the
study to determine how control strategies would be evaluated. A major
6-2
-------
shortcoming of previous air quality plans for the Bay Area and other
regions had been the use of an aggregated emission inventory and the
"linear rollback" technique. This approach to predicting future air
quality was based on past meteorological and air quality trends. The
shortcomings of linear rollback (and modified versions*) were as
follows:
o Linear rollback related oxidant to hydrocarbons only; it
is known that oxidant levels depend significantly on both
reactive hydrocarbons and NOx emissions.
o Linear rollback neglected important non-linearities in
the oxidant-hydrocarbon relation.
o Linear rollback neglected background oxidant levels that
may have been significant.
o Linear rollback neglected the spatial distribution of
emissions and the issue of transport.
The advantages of the linear rollback were two-fold:
o The relationships were based on actual atmospheric data
(if available) and would predict successfully even when
the actual physical process (of oxidant formation) was
not understood completely.
o It was simple and relatively inexpensive to apply.
The recommended modeling approach was therefore to:
1) Achieve technical validity through use of LIRAQ
- The modeling approach should represent the
state of the art in air quality modeling and
thus establish the technical credibility of the
analysis.
2) Achieve technical consistency through the use of
the statistical Larsen analysis combined with
the linear rollback assumption. Due to the more
simplistic assumptions underlying the
statistical approach, the results were easier to
interpret and more consistent.
*e.g., the method presented in Appendix J of the EPA's regulations
governing development of State implementation plans (40 C.F.R. part
51.14(c)(4) (1975)); Appendix J was revoked February 8, 1979 (40 FR
8234).
6-3
-------
The application of two radically different approaches would define
a range of future air quality from a given strategy. This range would
reflect the technical uncertainties that exist in air quality modeling.
PROJECTING AIR QUALITY -- MODELING ISSUES
In developing the modeling procedures, certain issues had to be
resolved in order to achieve data consistency and validity. These
issues were: which prototype meteorological days to use, how to
validate the model and what future initial and boundary conditions to
specify.
Baseline Projections—Baseline air quality levels were developed
for 1975 for calibration purposes and for 1985 and 2000, for emissions
sensitivity testing. These levels assumed no additional controls and
existing regional growth trends. An important aspect of the baseline
and subsequent projections was the choice of a "prototype meteorological
day" for validating and running LIRAQ. As a deterministic model, LIRAQ
was designed to replicate the physical processes of oxidant formation in
the course of one day based on real, previously acquired meteorological
observations. In part for economic reason, "prototype meteorological
days" already in the LIRAQ data base at the beginning of the study were
used in prediction of future oxidant concentrations; however, they were
not the worst case days. Since the oxidant standard was defined as "not
to be exceeded more than once per year," demonstrating oxidant levels at
or below .08 ppm on days which were not the worst or second worst day
did not necessarily demonstrate the attainment of the standard.
However, LIRAQ had already been validated on several historical days in
order to verify that it could produce the oxidant levels that were
6-4
-------
measured on those days. Inputs of each prototype day required several
months of effort to develop because the data collection and computer
processing tasks were labor intensive.
A correction factor based on observed and Larsen Model calculations
was therefore applied to the LIRAQ estimate to obtain the expected
worst-hour oxidant.
The Model Validation Process—Since models invariably contained
simplifications and modifications of what happened in reality, it was
expected that model predictions would not replicate perfectly the
observed measurements. A procedure was therefore devised for computing
adjustment factors to LIRAQ output as follows:
ft-ll or Cs = ^.Cf
Cv <=„, Cv f
Where - C = regionwide high hour oxidant concentration
measured on the validation day
C = regionwide high hour oxidant concentration
v reproduced by the model on the validation day
Cf = regionwide high hour oxidant concentration
forecasted by the model under some future
emission scenario
GS = regionwide high hour oxidant concentration to
be computed and compared to the oxidant
standard
In other words, the ratio of the measured regionwide high hour
oxidant concentration on a given validation day to the model-produced
regionwide high hour oxidant concentration was used to adjust forecasted
oxidant maxima. This compensated for any inherent biases in the model
6-5
-------
or input data. For example, on July 26, 1973, the measured oxidant
maximum was .18 ppm, while the model-produced maximum was .17 ppm. The
adjustment ratio was therefore .18/.17 = 1.06.
This procedure was reasonable provided that the magnitude of the
adjustment was small. No adjustment factor could be expected to
adequately compensate for major deficiencies in either model formulation
or input data base. The small magnitude of the adjustment for July 26,
1973 was indicative of good model performance.
Specifying Future Initial and Boundary Conditions - The
specification of initial and boundary conditions for future year
simulations was an important problem for oxidant modeling, particularly
when testing control strategy cases which would reduce the simulated
oxidant levels to levels at or near the oxidant standard. As emissions
were reduced, the contribution of pollutants specified to enter the grid
from its boundaries (boundary conditions) became increasingly important.
Concentrations of pollutants at the boundaries of a metropolitan area
were poorly understood. There were very limited data which could be
used for validation on a historical day, and virtually no data for
future year simulations which could act as a guide.
These problems were dealt with in the plan development effort in
the following way:
o Initial conditions for hydrocarbons and nitric oxide were
factored up or down proportionally to the change in the
aggregate regional emission inventory for each pollutant.
In addition, all simulations were initiated in pre-dawn
hours to minimize the initial concentrations of secondary
pollutants.
o Since the prototype meteorology being used consisted of a
prevailing onshore wind, flow through the upwind boundary
was assumed to contain background levels of all species
both during model validation and during future year
simulations.
6-6
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o The vertical boundary condition at the base of the
temperature Inversion was originally defined to depend
partially on the concentration of pollutants In the grid
cell below. Therefore, as emission levels changed, the
boundary condition at the celling would change in the
same direction. Since the degree of vertical transport
down from the inversion was relatively small on the
prototype day, no change in this form of specification
was considered warranted.
The specification of the vertical boundary condition and the
resolution of the worst case issue appeared to be intimately related.
There was evidence that in California the highest oxidant levels were
measured during multiple-day episodes which involved substantial
transport of polluted air down from the inversion. This polluted air,
believed to result from a previous day's events and sheltered from
substantial NOV quenching by the inversion, mixed with the "fresh"
A
pollutants generated on the high oxidant day, producing the extreme
concentrations recorded.
If one attempted to validate a model on such a worst case day, one
would have been faced with the problem of specifying the crucial
vertical boundary concentrations with little or no data to guide the
specification. If one attempted to validate a model on a day where the
boundary condition was not crucial, some sort of extrapolation would
have to be made to relate the model results to the oxidant standard.
EMISSIONS SENSITIVITY TESTING
The time and monetary resources required to produce a single
complete run of the air quality forecasting system was substantial — in
excess of several thousand dollars for staff and computer costs. This
resulted in two courses of action when developing the control
6-7
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strategies:
o extensive use of pre-screening techniques so that the
control measures which were finally tested had the
greatest potential for improving air quality.
o performing an emissions sensitivity analysis to determine
the target emissions reductions of hydrocarbon and NOX
which would be required to attain the Federal oxidant
standard. This target would be the basis for packaging
the control measures into strategies for further testing.
The sensitivity analysis was implemented in successive iterations
using a number of different hydrocarbon and NO emissions assumptions
J\
described below:
o uniform percentage reduction of both hydrocarbons and NOj.
uniformly across the region until the oxidant standard
was attained;
o uniform hydrocarbon reductions only until the standard
was attained;
o other tests on the spatial and temporal distribution of
emissions, mobile versus stationary source contributions,
etc.
The analysis was applied to both the 1985 and 2000 emissions
inventories in a systematic fashion such that results from previous runs
could permit the optimum design of subsequent new runs. The results of
the sensitivity runs are presented in Figures 6-1 through 6-3. Figure
6-1 shows the east-west traverse (AA1) and north-south traverse (BB1)
along which map ozone has been plotted in Figures 6-2 and 6-3,
respectively. It is seen that the 40% HC/20% NC^ curve exceeds the 40%
HC curve at almost every point. Figure 6-4 plots the regionwide high
hours versus percent reduction of hydrocarbon only emissions. It also
shows how the LIRAQ output is adjusted according to the previously
6-8
-------
Figure 6-1
BASELINE MAP AT 1500 PST FOR 1985 EMISSIONS AND JULY 26,1973
METEOROLOGY, SHOWING EAST-WEST SECTION LINE AA' AND NORTH-SOUTH
SECTION LINE BB'
7/261985 Baseline QSOR 8/18/77
4220
4210
4200
4190
4180 •
4170 •
4160 .
4150 •
4140 •
4130 '
4120
TIME
15: 0.
July 26,1973
SURF CONCEN CONTOURS OF
OZONE
Contour: Minimum 2.0000E-02
Maximum 1.4000E-01
Interval 1.0000E-02
Label Scaling 1 .OOOOE+00
Scale = 5.0 KM
6-9
-------
Figure 6-2 ^
EMISSION SENSITIVITY RESULTS COMPARED BY VARIOUS PERCENT
REDUCTIONS ALONG SECTION AA' OF FIGURE 6-1
Baseline
.14
.12
.10
.08
.06
Q.
Q.
.04
LLJ
o
•8
.02
July 26,1973 Meteorology
1985 Emissions
-80% HC
530
550
570
590
610
630
UTM E-W GRID
-40% HC
-20% NOx
A'
6-10
-------
Figure 6-3 ^____________
EMISSION SENSITIVITY RESULTS COMPARED BY VARIOUS PERCENT
REDUCTIONS ALONG SECTION BB' OF FIGURE 6-1
Baseline
E
Q.
Q.
<
cc
UJ
o
z
o
o
n
o
.06
.04
.02
July 26,1973 Meteorology
1985 Emissions
-40% HC
-20% NOx
4120
4140
4160
4180
4200
4220
B
UTM N-S GRID
B'
6-11
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Figure 6-4
PLOTS OF UNADJUSTED AND ADJUSTED REGIONWIDE HIGH HOUR OZONE AS A
FUNCTION OF % REDUCTIONS OF 1985 HC EMISSIONS
CL
Q.
O
N
O
^.
3
O
.c
g>
I
i
O
f
IT
CO
N
0>
. 0.04
0.03
a 0.02
O
o:
0.01
O—O : Adjusted High Hour Ozone
: Unadjusted High Hour Ozone
EPA Standard (0.08 ppm)
Natural Background
(0.03-0.05 ppm)
0%
Baseline
20%
40%
60%
80%
Percent Reduction of 1985 Baseline Hydrocarbon Emissions
6-12
-------
documented worst case and validation procedures.
The conclusions derived from these Initial runs were:
o A reduction of hydrocarbon emissions alone was more
effective than the combined reduction of hydrocarbons and
nitric oxide emissions;
o Nitric oxide quenching was significant factor in oxidant
control;
o By extrapolating the 1985 result, a 56% reduction of
hydrocarbons would attain the standard in 2000.
6-13
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Chapter 7
DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE CONTROLS
Air quality improvements can be achieved in many different ways. A
first step to developing alternative control strategies is accurately
documenting existing and planned programs. After assessing the impacts
and effectiveness of ongoing and currently scheduled controls, an
inventory can be made of additional measures which need to be
considered. In some cases certain programs may be considered to be
already in existence, e.g., transit service, vehicle exhaust emission
standards. What is considered then is a further strengthening or
expansion of the program in place, e.g., more transit service, lower
vehicle exhaust emission standards.
EXISTING AND PLANNED PROGRAMS
Many control programs for air pollution currently exist in the San
Francisco Bay Area. More are scheduled to be implemented in coming
years. These programs are discussed according to program implementing
authority and/or responsibility in the following paragraphs.
Stationary Source Emission Controls
In the San Francisco Bay region, the Bay Area Air Pollution Control
District (BAAPCD) has been empowered to control air pollution from
stationary sources. Since its formation in 1955, the District has
developed air pollution control programs for many categories of
stationary sources.
To date the BAAPCD has enacted ten regulations, and seven of these
affect stationary sources. Some of them directly control air pollution
by limiting the emissions of specific pollutants, either on a mass flow
7-1
-------
rate or concentration basis. Other regulations indirectly control
pollutants by curtailing open burning, new source construction and
expansion of existing stationary sources. Some sections deal
specifically with emissions of odorous substances and others limit the
density of smoke which may be emitted to the atmosphere. The
regulations of the BAAPCD have been expanded and modified through the
years, and are generally acknowledged to be among the most stringent in
the United States. A summary of present BAAPCD's regulations on
stationary source control for oxidants is given in Table 7-1. More
detailed information can be obtained from the BAAPCD. Additionally, a
number of Federal and State air pollution control regulations are also
applicable to stationary sources control in the Bay area.
Motor Vehicle Emission Controls
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is the State agency
responsible for coordinating both State and Federal air pollution
control programs in California. This responsibility includes regulation
of pollutant emissions from motor vehicles and coordination of local
programs for stationary source control.
Due to the severity of air pollution problems in California, the
federal government gives the State the option of enforcing motor vehicle
emission standards which are more stringent than federal emission
standards. Thus, while the Envionmental Protection Agency takes primary
responsibility for motor vehicle emissions control, the CARB can and has
adopted and enforced emission standards more stringent than required at
the Federal level. This section summarizes CARB responsibilities for
mobile source control.
7-2
-------
Table 7-1
Summary of Existing BAAPCD's Regulations on
Stationary Source Control for Oxidants
Regulations Controlled Source (or Process)
1. Trash Burning and Dump Fires
2. Service Stations, Industrial and
Commercial Sources and New
Sources (NOX , SOX, Odor, Lead,
particulates)
3. Formulation, Storage, Shipment
and use of Solvents, Paint,
Gasoline and Ink
5. Definition of Air Pollution
Episodes and Specific Actions
7. New or modified sources
including Fossil Fuel Power
Plants, Larger Incinerators,
Cement Plants, Acid Plants,
Refineries, Smelters, and Steel
Plants
9. Emission control on various
Architectural coatings
10. Emission control pn volatile
organic compounds emissions from
valves and flanges
7-3
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The CARB currently has regulations which control emissions from
light, medium, and heavy duty gasoline powered vehicles, diesel powered
trucks and buses, and motorcycles. In addition, the CARB has in effect
various regulations and procedures to ensure that emission standards are
met. Current vehicle emission standards adopted by the CARB and
recently enacted federal statues are presented in the AQMP for the Bay
Area.
Transportation Controls
A number of transportation control projects are currently operating
in the San Francisco Bay Area. Some were required as elements of the
transportation control plan, while others are the result of regional
transportation planning. These transportation controls are summarized
in Table 7-2
The experience with transportation programs has been valuabe. The
carpool incentives seem to be successful. The transit additions are
also rather significant, but the problems of financing are becoming
critical. Despite these incentives, auto travel has not really
decreased. This would indicate that some combination of auto restraints
and more transit/carpool incentives is needed.
Land Use Management/Development Controls
This term as traditionally used is a misnomer since measures
dealing with land use, or land development, include a wide array of
non-regulatory devices from the general plan of cities and counties to
the service commitments of special districts. The more current and more
widely used term "growth management" also means many different things in
many different jurisdictions. Hence, in the ABAG Environmental
Management Plan we use the terms "development policy" or "development
7-4
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Table 7-2
Summary of Current Transportation Control Measures
In the San Francisco Bay Area.
o Ramp and Mainline Metering to improve traffic flow - Meters are
operating on segments of 1-580, 1-280, Rt. 101, Rt. 17 and Bay
Bridge.
o Preferential Bus/Carpool Lanes on Freeways (Rt. 101, Rt. 280, Rt.
580) and on certain streets in San Francisco.
o Bridge Toll Incentives (Bay Bridge, San Mateo - Hayward and
Dumbarton Bridges, and Golden Gate Bridge).
o Reyionwide Carpool and Vanpool Matching Program.
o Improvement of Regional Transit Service.
o Preferential Parking for Carpooling Vehicles.
7-5
-------
strategy" to signify the land development objective sought, and the term
"policy instruments" to mean the measure or tools of implementation.
There are various land use management and development policies
currently existing in the San Francisco Bay Area. They can be broadly
grouped into three categories: Development supporting, development
constraining, and neutral or mixed policies. Table 7-3 presents a list
of land use development policies in effect in the Bay Area in 1975.
Based on the number of jurisdictions using them, the following general
conclusions are noted:
o Among development supporting instruments, assessment
districts, redevelopment programs, and capital improvement
programs for transportation, sewer, and water systems are
the most common. Redevelopment incentives such as tax
incentives or other special land reserves with service
commitments are relatively rare but do exist as precedents
for more widespread application in the region.
o Among development constraining instruments, open space
zoning (and easements), public land acquisition, sewer
connection limits and zoning moratoria are most prevalent;
numerically transportation access limits, building permit
moratoria, and prime agricultural land preserves are of
secondary importance.
o In the category of instruments that can be used to constrain
_o_r support development, the Local Agency Formation
Commission (LAFCO) spheres of influence dominate.
INVENTORY OF OPTIONS (OR CANDIDATE CONTROL MEASURES)
Because so many possibilities exist for consideration, the AQMP
Joint Technical Staff and later the AQMP Advisory Committee were
involved in screening the control options which are developed. The
screening process led to a more manageable number of options which were
evaluated further by the AQMP Joint Technical Staff.
Table 7-4 lists the inventory of air pollution control measures
considered in developing the AQMP. The inventory is organized according
to the participating agencies which prepared the component parts.
7-6
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*f
Table 7-3.Summary of Land Development Policies In Effect - Bay Region 1975
Land Development Policy Instruments
(In rank order by frequency reglonwlde
within group)
, Number of Jurisdictions Using
TotalPrior to 1970 toExpect
Active 1970 1975 by 1977
Group 1 Supporting Development
Assessment (Improvement) Districts
Public Assisted Housing Programs
Redevelopment Programs
Transportation Extension C.I. P.
Sewer Extension Capital Improvement Program
Public Housing Programs
Water Extension Capital Improvement Program
Low Income Housing Program
Special Service Commitments
Sale of Public Land
Indus trial /Commercial Land Reserve (other
than zoning)
Group 2 Neutral or Mixed (used to support or
Development)
City Spheres of Influence (by LAFCO)
Development Fees
User Charges
Cluster Zoning
SI ope/ Density Zoning
Plan Conformance Rezonlng
Mass "Up" or "Down" Zoning
Development Rights-Purchase or Transfer
Land Banking
Development Sequence Zoning
"Floating Zones"
Group 3 Constraining Development
Open Space Zoning
Open Space Easements
Zoning Moratorium
Sewer Connection Limits
Land Acquisition for Public Use
Prime Agricultural Land Preserves
Building Permit Moratorium
Watershed Protection Program
Transportation Access Limits
Water Connection Limits
Other Utility Connection Moratorium
Sllfce: preliminary tabulations ABAC Local
34
25
15
21
14
9
8
8
6
6
0
30
12
7
16
10
6
8
3
5
5
0
4
13
8
5
4
3
0
5
1
1
0
1
2
8
4
5
1
1
6
2
0
3
constrain
39
37
32
28
21
19
U
8
3
4
3
26
23
18
20
20
11
11
13
12
7
7
Policy
12
27
27
21
6
1
1
5
-
4
3
5
5
8
9
12
5
0
8
7
4
7
Survey,
27
10
5
7
15
18
10
3
3
0
0
21
18
10
11
8
6
11
5
5
3
0
8/15/76.
0
1
0
3
6
14
8
4
2
4
3
8
4
5
3
1
1
0
1
2
3
0
65 cities
rel
orted of 76 responding. Special districts not'Included.
7-7
-------
Table 7-4. Inventory of Air Pollution Control Measures
1. Require the use of high solid
coatings where practical.
2. Require the use of water based
coatings where practical.
3. Adopt the CAR6 standards for
organic liquid storage.
4. Adopt closed system organic
liquid storage with vapor re-
covery.
5. Require vapor recovery on small
solvent users.
6. Adopt organic solvent regulation
developed by the CARS Organic
Sol Ids Committee.
7. Enact a new maximum S02 emission
limit of 300 ppm.
8. Require reduced sulfur content
In fuels to .025%.
9. Adopt NOX controls for non-
highway and construction equip-
ment.
10. Adopt NOX limits for all new
boilers.
11. Adopt lower participate loading
requirement - 0.05 to 0.1 grains/
SCFM.
12. Adopt lower process weight al-
lowable scale.
13. Adopt lower process weight maxi-
mum allowable scale.
14. Adopt best available control
technology (BACT) regulation
for existing sources with a
time scale for compliance.
15. Adopt BACT regulation for all
sources 1n Heu of emission
concentration limits.
16. Adopt BACT regulation for all
sources in addition to emission
concentration limits.
17. Adopt a modern process tech-
nology rule aimed at promoting
modernization of the areawlde
plant. This might, for in-
stance, suspend a BACT rule for
an agreement to modernize a
plant with BACT included in
modernized version. The intent
of such a regulation would be
to encourage modernization of
old plants with new plants
having improved pollution con-
trol technology.
I. Stationary Sources
18. Extentlon of current BAAPCO re-
' quirements to smaller opera-
tions, I.e., fewer exemptions.
19, New Source Review (NSR) - con-
tinue present rule.
20. New Source Review - Adopt 1001
off-set policy.
21. New Source Review - Adopt 110%
off-set policy.
22. New Source Review - Adopt a
sliding scale for emission off-
set.
23. NSR Options 20, 21 or 22 with a
limited area for emission off-
set.
24. NSR Options 20, 21 or 22 with
Inter-pollutant emission off-
set.
25. NSR Options 20, 21 or 22 with
no Inter-pollutant off-set or
inter-pollutant off-set governed
by location, etc.
26. NSR Options 20-25 qualified so
that no credit 1s allowed for
emissions that are in excess of
other limitations.
27. NSR Options 20-25 with arrange-
ment for off-set banking, allow-
ing a prospective new source
credit for emission reduction
off-set achieved beyond that re-
quired by existing regulations.
28. Adopt regulations to promote in-
dustrial energy conservation.
29. Plant operation scheduling:
a) Seasonal scheduling to
reduce polluting opera-
tions during critical
weeks or months as de-
termined by meteorology.
b) Scheduling maintenance
down time and vacations,
possibly short downs, to
reduce pollutant load at
critical times.
c) Interruptable operation
dependent upon air quality
conditions.
d) Stagger operations between
plants to spread operation
over seven days Instead of
five. Assign plants a 5
day week starting on any-
one of the seven days,
possibly with some on 4
day 10-hour operation.
e) Stagger work hours. For
Instance, run coating
lines only between 4 PH
and midnight Instead of
7 AM to 3 PM.
f) Schedule reduced work days
during the smog season
with or without longer
days during less critical
seasons. Rationing the
pollution absorbing ca-
pacity.
30. An air monitoring and meteoro-
logical analysis to Identify
and recommend mitigation mea-
sures, for certain localized
problems.
31. Adopt partlculate regulation
based on particle size.
32. Replace throw-away container
with re-usable containers.
33. Burn solid waste near point of
generation, to reduce long
hauls.
34. Apply 1309 with modified trade-
off of 1311 and 1311-2 clearly
described as an option.
35. Requiring some sort of retro-
fitting on older plants. Ap-
ply BACT to newer plants
through permit system.
36. Penalty charge or tax based on
amount of emission to encourage
reduction.
37. Lowering the reid vapor pres-
sure of gasoline to reduce
hydrocarbon emissions from
storage, handling and use of
motor vehicle grade gasoline.
II. Mobile Sources
1. Implement an evaporative emis-
sions retrofit program for all
vehicles.
2. Implement a catalytic retrofit
program for past-71' vehicles
able to operate on unleaded
gasoline.
3. Adopt more stringent applica-
tion of compliance procedures.
6.
7.
Adopt more comprehensive new
and used motor vehicle surveil-
lance program.
Adopt a mandatory vehicle In-
spection and maintenance pro-
gram for light and heavy duty
vehicles.
Adopt more stringent evapor-
ative emission standards.
Implement a heavy duty gasoline
exhaust emission retrofit pro-
gram.
8. Adopt more stringent exhaust
emission standards for new light
and heavy duty vehicles.
9. Promote the use of new or modi-
fied fuels.
10. Promote the use of alternative
power sources.
11. Establish emission standards for
other mobile sources such as
construction equipment, locomo-
tives, ships, or recreational
vehicles.
7-8
-------
III. Transportation Controls
1. Measures to Improve Traffic
Operations
A. Improve Traffic Flow
1) Computerized traffic
control
2} Ramp Metering
3) Traffic engineering
Improvements
4) Off-street freight
loading
B. Reduce peak-period traffic
volumes
1) Staggered work hours
2) Four day work week
3) Off-peak freight de-
livery
2. Measures to Reduce Vehicle Use
A. Restrict Vehicle Ownership
1) Additional license fee
2) Registration limits
B. Management of Auto Access
1) Better enforcement of
parking regulations
2) Limit on number of
parking spaces
3) On-street parking pro-
hibited during peak
hours
Area 11cent*
Auto-free zones
Gas rationing
C. Increase Cost of Auto Use
3.
Measures to Encourage Alternative
Model of Travel
A. Increase Transit Rldershlp
1) Additional transit ser-
vice
2 Fare reductions
3 Improved comfort
4 Bus and carpool lanes
Road pricing
Increased parking costs
Parking fee for shopper
Eliminate free employee
parking
Increased gas tax
Increased tolls
"Smog charges"
B.
C.
D.
D. Reduce the Need to Travel
1) Communications substi-
tutes
2) Goods movement consol-
idation
E.
Encourage Pedestrian Mode
Encourage Bicycle Mode
Encourage R1de Sharing
1)
2)
3)
4)
Toll reduction for
carpools
Preferential parking
and carpools
Carpool matching In-
formation
Assist vanpool formation
Promote Para-Transit
Alternatives
IV. Land Use Management/
Development Controls
More effective management of all five 2.
major aspects of land development
through coordinated action by cities,
counties, special districts, or re-
gional and State agencies to reduce
the magnitude and frequency of auto
travel:
1. Timing - expand the presently 3.
very limited application of
timing controls such as growth
sequence zoning, building per-
mit quotas, staging of sewer
and water Infrastructure and
plant capabilities, etc.
Quanfl ty - expand the presently 4.
scattered application of quan-
titative controls on development
such as performance standard
zoning and limited sewer and
water Infrastructure and plant
capacities.
Location - Improve the presently
Inconsistent application of
controls on the location pf de- S.
velopment such as coordinated
management of Infrastructure
location, annexations, public
land acquisition, agricultural
preserves, hillside and soil
conservation, and development
moratorla.
Density - Encourage transit usage
and other non-auto modes with
coordinated density policies among
local jurisdictions through the
application of Innovative density
zoning mechanisms (slope density,
building height regulations, etc.)
fully coordinated with service
capacities and commitments.
Type - Reduce home-to-work & home-
to-non-work travel by encouraging
more land use mix, especially in
terms of housing/Jobs balance.
7-9
-------
The control measures for stationary and mobile sources have
traditionally been direct controls. As such they can be specified quite
precisely. Many of the transportation controls and land use management
measures are indirect controls. Thus, they tend to be described in more
general terms. This is especially true for the land use management
actions proposed. Later the basic objectives of the land use management
program was presented. Simply stated the objective was to reduce the
number and length of automobile trips and to increase transit use in
order to decrease the amount of regional automobile travel. This would
be accomplished by achieving more compact development in the region by
the year 2000. Recommendations were presented for policies and actions
which might begin to achieve these objectives. Clearly there may be
other policies and actions which can achieve the stated objectives.
PROCESS FOR SCREENING THE OPTIONS
Having developed an inventory of about 100 control measures
options, the AQMP Joint Technical Staff proceeded to screen the options
down to a more manageable size. In conducting the screenings, the AQMP
Joint Technical Staff attempted to avoid political judgments regarding a
measure's implementabil ity. The list of control options was screened
primarily on the basis of technical effectiveness. Gas rationing serves
as a good example. Nobody would debate that gas rationing could be an
effective way of controlling air pollution. The debates about gas
rationing center on its public and political acceptability and
implementabil ity. The AQMP Advisory Commitee argued over whether gas
rationing should or should not be screened out. In the end it was
7-10
-------
included in the screened options because it is technically effective.
EMTF and the public could judge its political merits and public
acceptability.
The list of screened options was presented to EMTF in June, 1977
during a presentation of alternative air quality strategies. At that
meeting EMTF approved the screened listing of control measures for use
in developing alternative air quality strategies. These control
measures were to be grouped into a series of control strategies for
testing of their air quality effects.
OPTIONS CONSIDERED BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE PLAN
Using the screened inventory of control measures as a starting
point, the AQMP Joint Technical Staff analyzed the remaining control
options further. Since it was clear by now that the focus for this plan
was meeting the oxidant standard, control measures for particulate, SOx,
CO and NOx, were eliminated (for consideration at a future time). For
example, in some of the earlier progress reports, several measures were
included to control sulfur dioxide emissions. Since the more detailed
evaluation of the sulfur dioxide problem is proposed for the planning
process, these measures were dropped from this current plan. Another
example of control measures temporarily deferred is the use of best
available control technology for sulfur dioxide and particulate
controls. The revised best available control technology proposal
concentrates on reducing hydrocarbon emissions from a number of
categories.
7-11
-------
Chapter 8
CONTROL STRATEGY ANALYSIS AND
ASSESSMENT
The effectiveness of alternative control strategies in improving
air quality was analyzed by using a series of computer-based models.
These models have been briefly described previously:
o The ABAG Series 3 population, housing, employment and
land use modeling system.
o The MTC travel demand models.
o The ABAG vehicle emissions model.
o The Livermore Regional Air Quality Model (LIRAQ)
maintained by the BAAPCD.
These models were used in three distinct applications. First they
were used to project future air quality assuming a continuation of
existing regional growth trends and existing control programs. The
results of this "baseline" projection were previously described.
Second, using the baseline projections as a starting point, an
emissions sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the range of
emissions levels necessary to meet the federal oxidant standard. The
purpose of this exercise was to provide information on the design of
control strategies to meet the standard.
Third, a series of strategy cases were developed from the
alternative control measures and tested through the modeling system for
their effectiveness in improving air quality.
8-1
-------
DETERMINING THE RANGE OF EMISSION REDUCTIONS NECESSARY TO MEET THE
OXIDANT STANDARD
To define the emission reductions needed to meet the oxidant
standard, the baseline emission levels were systematically reduced and
analyzed by the LIRAQ model. The results of this sensitivity analysis
(described in Chapter 6) showed that:
o reduction of hydrocarbon emissions alone is more
effective than joint reduction of hydrocarbon and nitric
oxide emissions, for the percentages examined,
o "Nitric oxide quenching" is a likely explanation for this
result,
o a 43% reduction of hydrocarbon emissions will attain the
standard in 1985,*
o by extrapolation of this 1985 result*, a 56% reduction of
hydrocarbon emissions will attain the standard in 2000.
The conclusion should not be reached that maximizing nitric oxide
emissions controls, to take advantage of nitric oxide quenching, is a
viable strategy, for two reasons:
o a California standard presently exists for one hourly
average nitrogen dioxide, which is exceeded in the
region,
o the EPA is presently examining the criteria for a one to
three hourly average nitrogen dioxide standard, in
addition to the present annual average standard for
nitrogen dioxide. EPA could issue such a standard in
1980.
* The calculation is to apply the 43% reduction to total 1985 organic
emissions. This leaves 1985 total organic emissions at approximately
450 tons/day. If a 56% reduction is applied to total 2000 organic
emissions, the same remainder is obtained, 450 tons/day. Attainment
dates mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 are 1982 and
1987; 1985 and 2000 were selected for attainment analysis before the
passage of the 1977 amendments. Interpolation of 1985 result to 1982
has been made in the recently revised AQMP.
8-2
-------
APPLICATION OF THE AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM
The effectiveness of each of the strategies was more precisely
determined by applying the air quality modeling system. Each measure in
the strategy was translated into the appropriate variable and parameter
values or into an adjustment of the emissions inventory. The methods
for doing this are described below.
o Technological Controls. Technological controls were
tested with relative ease because they did not involve
significant changes in human activities. Rather, they
involved the implementation of improved techniques for
reducing the pollutant emissions resulting from normal
human activities. Such emission reductions were
accounted for by applying a percentage reduction factor
to the "emission factors" used in the emissions models.
For example, requiring even more stringent control of
motor vehicle emissions than currently required was
reflected in future motor vehicle emission factors. This
served as input to the emissions calculations which
subsequently were input to the air quality models.
Regulations for controlling volatile organic compounds*
or for implementing combustion modifications for reducing
nitrogen oxide emission from small industrial and utility
boilers were handled similarly.
o Transportation Controls. Transportation controls were
tested through the travel demand modeling system.
Depending on the specific nature of .the controls,
different approaches to simulating their effects were
taken. For example, the effects of a general regionwide
improvement in transit service were tested by changing
the transit travel time or "wait time" in the modal split
model. This produced an estimate of the percent of total
trips diverted to transit and produced a net decrease in
highway network traffic. Testing service improvements in
specific areas involved changing the transit network to
reflect the improvements* Cost incentives/disincentives
such as gasoline tax or increased parking costs were
simulated in the modal split model.
"EPA's Recommended Policy on Control of Volatile Organic Compounds"
was published on July 8, 1979 (42 FR 3534)
8-3
-------
Land Use Controls. The effectiveness of individual land use
control mechanisms could not be tested by the forecasting
system in a straightforward manner. What could be tested were
the ultimate objectives of land use control measures. For
example, one policy goal of land use control for improving air
quality was to halt the outward spread of the metropolitan area
boundaries and redirect future growth into existing urbanized
portions of the region. The effectiveness of specific
mechanisms or tools which were employed to accomplish this
result (e.g., tax incentives/disincentives, public facility
restrictions, changes in general plans and/or zoning
ordinances) could not be tested by the forecasting system.
Instead, the system was used to test the effect of
accomplishing that "compact development" policy goal on
regional air quality. The land use policy goal in effect
became an assumption for a subsequent reiteration of the ABAG
forecasts. The results of these forecasts were then fed
through the modeling sequence to produce estimates of resulting
air quality. The information thus obtained was used to
evaluate the air quality effects of a more compact development
pattern in the region.
Land use controls or objectives were the most difficult and
time-consuming to forecast. This was due not only to the
difficulties in developing clear statements of the policy
goals, but also the fact that changes in the ABAG demographic
forecasts necessitated additional runs of the subsequent travel
demand, emissions, and air quality models.
A summary of the control strategies tested with the modeling system
is presented in Table 8-1. The schematic flow diagram of the modeling
system and how alternative strategies or sensitivity analyses were
conducted is shown in Figure 8-1.
CONTROL STRATEGY EFFECTIVENESS
The main results of the strategy analysis are summarized in Table
8-2. The table indicates that substantial improvements in air quality
can be made through the use of source control technology. It also
indicates that source control technology alone will not be sufficient to
meet the .08 ppm Federal oxidant standard. The transportation and land
use management strategy, although relatively ineffective in the short
8-4
-------
Table 8-1. Summary of Control Strategies Tested
MAXIMUM TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY
o Use paints and other coatings
that are water based and/or
have a high solids content.
o Use closed systems for stor-
age and transfer of organic
liquids.
o Use best available control
technology (BACT) on new and
existing sources of hydro-
carbon emissions.
o Adopt more stringent vehicle
(light & heavy duty) exhaust
-emission standards.
;. '&?>:?
o Implement mandatory annual
Inspection and maintenance
program for light and heavy
duty vehicles.
o Require exhaust control de-
vices on existing heavy duty
gasoline trucks.
TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE
MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
o Increase tolls on bridges.
o Implement regional parking
strategy to discourage pri-
vate auto use and encourage
high-occupancy auto use
- parking tax
- parking fees at large
shopping centers
- preferential parking
for carpools, vanpools
o Provide additional transit
service.
o Increase bus/carpool lanes
and ramp metering.
o Implement an auto control zone
in San Francisco central busi-
ness district to reduce traffic.
o Provide more ride sharing ser-
vices such as jitneys and van-
pools.
o Develop more extensive bicycle
systems.
o Achieve more compact develop-
ment throughout the region by
the year 2000.
COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY
o By 1985, the comprehensive
strategy includes: all of
the technological control
measures except for more
stringent vehicle exhaust
emission standards; and all
of the land use/transporta-
tion measures. The effects
of compact development were
not included in the analysis
for 1985 since the short
time frame was insufficient
for achieving significant
results.
o By 2000, the comprehensive
strategy includes: all of
the technological control
measures except for the ex-
haust control devices on
existing heavy duty gaso-
line trucks (this measure
provides short term bene-
fits only); and all of the
land use/transportation
measures.
-------
Figure 8-1
Control strategy testing with
the AQMP Modeling System
The AQMP Modeling System
ABAC
Local
Policy
Survey
\
/*
1
^
ABAC
Series 10
population,
employment,
&
land use
forecasts
71 >
^
N
/
MTC
travel
demand
forecasts
A *
N.
/
Stationary
and
mobile
source
emissions
inventories
'•
V
s
Air
quality
model.
(LIRAQ)
^
00
I
cr>
Alternative
control
strategies
Long
term
transit
service
improve
merits
Short
term
transportation
control
plan
Emissions
sensitivity
analysis
technological
improvements
technological
improvements
7
\ /
^r ?
^ ^
^ 7
^r 7
Candidate control measures
-------
oo
i
Table 8-2. Effectiveness of Alternative Control Strategies
Strategy
1985
2000
Baseline ( do-nothing)*
Maximum Technology
Transportation and
Land Use Management
Comprehensive Strategy*
Hydrocarbon Emission Estimated Reglonwlde
Reduction Potential High Hour Oxldant
Level (ppm) *
(797 tons/day) .19ppm
emitted
- 280 tons/day .lOppm
- 7 tons/day not estimated
- 286 tons/day .lOppm
Estimated No. of
Annual Violations
of the 1-Hour .08 Hydrocarbon Emission Estimated Reglonwlde
ppm Federal 0x1- Reduction Potential High Hour Oxldant
dant Standard Level (ppm) *
130 (1,058 tons/day)
emitted
3 -441 tons/day
- 84 tons/day with
slow growth
3 - 513 tons/day with
slow growth
.24ppm
.13ppm
.23pp»
.12pp.
Estimated No. of
Annual Violations
of the 1-Hour .08
ppm Federal Oxl-
dant Standard
275
16
220
11
•Does not assume New Source Review Regulation.
*These are extrapolated from LIRAQ modeling results.
-------
term, is shown to become increasingly effective with time. The primary
value of the transportation and land use management strategy is that it
helps in maintaining the air quality improvements achieved through the
application of technology. Under the maximum technology strategy, air
quality deteriorates significantly between 1985 and 2000 despite
technology advances. The comprehensive strategy reduces this
deterioration, but is still not enough to meet the Federal oxidant
standard.
As previously discussed, the Federal oxidant standard upon which
this strategy was based is a one hour standard, not to be exceeded more
than once per year. Table 8-2 indicates that if the comprehensive
strategy is implemented, the number of times the standard would be
exceeded drops to approximately 3 in 1985 and 11 in the year 2000.
These estimates are necessarily approximate due to the natural variation
in meteorological conditions from year to year. The California standard
for oxidants, at .10 ppm for one hour, would be met in 1985 under the
comprehensive strategy, but would be violated in the year 2000. Figures
8-2 to 8-8 are examples of LIRAQ results for each of the strategy cases
summarized in Table 8-2.
An additional analysis was conducted to test the effects of the
comprehensive strategy on the three northermost counties in the
region--Napa, Sonoma, and Solano. A comparison of expected oxidant
levels on the LIRAQ prototype day in these counties is presented in
Table 8-3 for both baseline conditions and under the comprehensive
strategy. The table clearly shows a substantial improvement in oxidant
levels will occur in these northern counties under the comprehensive
strategy. Based on the worst case estimates and number of expected
8-8
-------
Figure 8-2 Example LIRAQ Results - 1985 Control Strategy Analysis
(Maximum Technological Improvements Only)
•VALLEJO
3iv?rv
FVV ^ C BERKELEY
"* $J> ' \
*t~**\**fC * OAKLAND
SOLANO
• CONCORD
CONTA
• WALNUT
CREEK
COST
\
*>
\
• HAYWARD
•
SUNNYVALE
• SAN
Notes: 1) July 26, 1973 Prototype Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
2) Values unconnected for worst case conditions
3) Emission reductions taken from 1985 baseline inventory
8-9
-------
Figure 8-3 Example LIRAQ Results - 1985 Control Strategy Analysis
(Comprehensive Strategy including Additional NOX Controls)
Notes: 1) July 26, 1973 Prototype Meteorology (1500 Hours
2) Values uncorrected for worst case conditions
3) Emission reductions taken from 1985 baseline inventory
8-10
-------
Figure 8-4 Example LIRAQ Results - 1985 Control Strategy Analysis
(Comprehensive Strategy without Additional NOX Controls)
NOVATO.
•VALUE jo
SOLANO
RICHMOND
BERKELEY
•
• CONCORD
• WALNUT
CREEK
CONTA
COSTA
^
%
•OAKLAND '«.
V
SAM
• DALY
CITY
\
• HAYWARD
•»
\
SAN •
MATEO
\
FREMONT
•
REDWOOD
CITY ,
(' PALO
SAN J ALTO
MATED )
(
SUNNYVALE
.04
• SAN JOSE
CLARA
Notes: 1) July 26, 1973 Prototype Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
2) Values uncorrected for worst case condition^
3) Emission reductions taken from 1985 inventory
8-11
-------
Figure 8-5 Example LIRAQ Results - 2000 Control Strategy Analysis
(Baseline Projection Assuming Slower Population Growth Rate)
Notes: 1} July 26, 1973 Prototype Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
2) Values uncorrected for worst case conditions
3) Emission reductions taken from 2000 baseline inventory
8-12
-------
Figure 8-6 Example LIRAQ Results - 2000 Control Strategy Analysis
(Transportation Controls and Land Use Management Only)
NOVATO.
MARIN
.04
VALLEJO
SOLANO
.06
• CONCORD
• WALNUT
CREEK
BERKELEY
CONTA
COSTA
S
i
•OAKLAND*^*.
• DALY
CITY
\
• HAY WARD
^
\
SAN
MATED
\
^
HALF
• MOON
BAY
REDWOOD
CITY
«*'
SAN
\
PALO
ALTO
SUNNYVALE
• SAN
Notes: 1) July 26, 1973 Prototype Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
2) Values uncorrected for worst case conditions
3) Emission reductions taken from 2000 baseline inventory
8-13
-------
Figure 8-7 Example LIRAQ Results - 2000 Control Strategy Analysis
(Maximum Technological Controls Only)
Notes: 1) July 26, k!973 Prototyoe Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
2) Values uncorrected for worst case conditions
3) Emission reductions taken from 2000 baseline inventory
8-14
-------
Figure 8-8 Example LIRAQ Results - 2000 Control Strategy Analysis
(Comprehensive Strategy without Additional NOx Controls)
MARIN
SAN RAFAEL*
BERKELEY
• CONCORD
• WALNUT
CREEK
CONTA
COSTA
v N^
*£.v";
, v. „
s
•OAKLAND^* .
SAK
'°«*v I
• DALY
CITY
\ ^
\
;\
• HAYWARD
\
FREMONT
•
HALF
• MOON
BAY
REDWOOD
CITY --
./—
SAN
MATEO
SUNNYVALE
• SAN JOSE
'.04
Notes: 1) July 26, 1973 Prototype Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
2) Values uncorrected for worst case conditions
3) Emission reductions taken from 2000 baseline inventory
8-15
-------
Table 8-3. LIRAQ Baseline and Comprehensive Strategy
Analysis for the North Bay (2000)
Baseline
Comprehensive
Strategy
Location of North Regional
High Hour Ozone
North Regional High
Hour (ppm)
Monitoring Station with
Highest Ozone
Ozone at Highest
Station (ppm)
Projected Ozone Maximum
at Individual Stations (ppm)
San Francisco
Santa Rosa
San Rafael
Petal uma
Napa
Sonoma County Airport
Pitts burg
Hamilton Air Force Base
Napa County Airport
Concord
Richmond
Travis Air Force Base
Angel Island
Point Bonita
Fairfield
12 km. ESE
Travis AFB
.08
Napa Airport
.07
.02
.04
.03
.04
.07
.03
.05
.03
.07
.06
.04
.07
.04
.04
.06
14 km. ESE
Travis AFB
.06
Travis AFB
.06
.02
.04
.03
.03
.05
.03
.05
.03
.05
.04
.03
.06
.03
.03
.05
3-16
-------
violations for the region previously summarized in Table 8-2, it is
expected that the oxidant standard will also be met in the northern
counties under the comprehensive strategy.
COSTS OF PROPOSED STRATEGIES
As par.t of the overall assessment of alternative strategies,
estimates of direct program costs were made. In each of the major
control areas, direct costs (including capital, operating and
maintenance) were analyzed and converted into equivalent annual costs.
The cost analyses of various control programs are described in detail in
AQMP and its technical appendices (8-1, 8-2), the following summarizes
the analyses results.
Stationary Source Control Costs
The major costs for additional stationary source controls would be
for meeting best available control technology requirements. It is
estimated this would cost about $30 million annually. Most costs would
be borne by private industry for capital outlays and higher operating
and maintenance costs. An increase in public sector expenditures is
also estimated for increased administrative and regulatory costs. These
latter costs are estimated to be about two percent (or approximately
$600,000) of the costs of this program.
For private industry, slightly more th*n half of the costs are
increased operating and maintenance expenses, which are recurring costs.
The capital outlay requirements of approximately a half billion dollars
would be expended in the early 1980's if the plan were carried out as
scheduled.
8-17
-------
No direct costs are associated with continued implementation of
the New Source Review rule. Since this regulation has been in effect
for a number of years, the administrative and regulatory costs are
already included in the budget by the Bay Area Air Pollution Control
District. Any of the options currently being considered to modify the
New Source Review rule are estimated to cost about the same to carry out
as the existing rule.
Mobile Source Control Costs
The annualized costs for additional mobile source controls is
approximately $50 million. These costs would pay for three very
different programs. About half of the $50 million is estimated to be
the added per vehicle costs for cars and trucks which meet more
stringent exhaust emissions standards. The additional cost per vehicle
would likely range between $200 and $400, assuming that a new engine
technology is used to meet both the more stringent emission standards
and Federal fuel economy standards. It has been assumed that these cars
would be produced for all of California at a minimum, and possibly in a
few other states with severe air pollution.
The vehicle inspection and maintenance program would cost about $20
million annually. This cost includes a $5 per vehicle inspection fee
and an average repair cost of $45 per vehicle, both paid by the vehicle
owner. The $5 inspection fee will cover the costs of acquiring land,
constructing inspection facilities, equipment, and operation of the
facilities. An additional aspect of the program would be that no
vehicle owner would be required to spend more than a given amount (e.g.,
$75) on repairs related to emission control.
8-18
-------
The retrofit of heavy-duty gasoline powered trucks with exhaust
catalysts is estimated to cost $340 per vehicle, or a total annualized
expenditure of $1.5 million for the region. This cost includes a 50,000
• 1. ' ~J
mile replacement warranty. The slight increase in operating cost due to
the use of unleaded gasoline will be offset by a slight improvement in
fuel economy.
Land Use and Transportation Control Costs
Costs associated with the land use and transportation
recommendations are more complex than the costs for stationary and motor
vehicle emission controls. In many cases a redistribution of money
within the region is the net result. For example, the post of the
bridge toll increase and the parking tax become revenues to support
improvements in public transit systems. About $18 million annually
would be expended in this way. There are many hidden subsidies given to
the use of the private automobile including a variety of public services
(judicial system, coroner, fire department, on street parking, city
planning, and other services typically financed from property taxes),
and local ordinances which require parking to be provided by
residential, commercial, and industrial developments. Because these
subsidies are not structured on a "user pays" basis, there are existing
inequities in the way transportation systems are financed. The use of
bridge tolls and parking taxes to support transit service improvements
could be viewed as a redistribution of subsidies from one transportation
system to another. The land use recommendations support a more compact
development pattern for the region than would occur under existing city
and county land use policies. The direct cost of implementing these
recommendations are of an administrative or regulatory nature. These
8-19
-------
costs will be estimated after the specific policies and actions to be
implemented by each jurisdiction in the region are agreed upon.
Indirect costs such as cost impacts on land, housing,.commerce, etc. are
addressed in the overall assessment.
The costs associated with the carpool incentive programs
(preferential parking, bus/carpool lanes on freeways with ramp metering,
and an expanded carpool matching program) total about $9 million
annually. The bulk of these costs are due to construction requirements
for the bus/carpool lanes and ramp meters.
Finally, the cost of implementing a comprehensive system of bicycle
paths and storage facilities is estimated to be approximately one-half
million dollars per year. It was assumed that the paths would be
striped onto existing roadways where the additional road width required
would be accommodated by narrowing existing vehicle lanes.
Cost-Effectiveness of AQMP Recommendations
The cost-effectiveness of the various AQMP recommendations can be
generally estimated in terms of the cost per ton of hydrocarbon
emissions prevented, as sunmarized below:
o The stationary source control recomnendations would cost
between $200 and $1000 per ton of hydrocarbon emission
reduced, depending on the cost assumptions employed.*
o The motor vehicle emission control recommendations would
cost approximately $1000 per ton of hydrocarbon emissions
reduced;
*According to the cost conventions used for all control measures and
described in References 8-1 and 8-2, the cost-effectiveness of
stationary source controls would range from $200 to $300 per ton.
However, stationary source control costs are (1) heavily weighted
toward capital outlays for control facilities, which (2) have a shorter
useful lifetime than assumed for all control measures (10-15 years
rather than 25 years). Using these latter assumptions, the
cost-effectiveness would be approximately $1000 per ton.
8-20
-------
o The land use and transportation recommendations would
cost approximately $10,000 per ton of hydrocarbon
emissions reduced, assuming no net dollar costs or
benefits due to the land use recommendations.
These estimates would Indicate to some what the priority for
implementation of the various recommendations should be. Stationary
source controls are clearly the most cost-effective within the time
frame of this plan. The land use and transportation recommendations
would appear to be relatively expensive; however, this conclusion is
also only valid during the time frame of this plan. The effectiveness
of implementing the land use and transportation recommendations are
expected to increase with time beyond the year 2000.
8-21
-------
References
8-1, Associations of Bay Area Governments, "Appendix G, Air Quality
Technical Materials, San Francisco Bay Area Environmental
Management Plan," Berkeley, California, June, 1978
8-2 Kan, I, "Effectiveness and Costs of Alternative Air Pollution
Control Programs," Technical Memorandum 14 in Appendix G, Air
Quality Technical Materials, San Francisco Bay Area Environmental
Management Plan, Association of Bay Area Governments, California,
June, 1978
8-22
-------
Chapter 9
DEVELOPMENT OF STAFF RECOMMENDED
DRAFT PLAN
Analysis described In the previous section showed how a
comprehensive strategy could have substantial air quality Improvement on
the region. Despite these improvements, however, the results show
violations in the 0.08 ppm standard in 1985 and 2000. From the
sensitivity analyses, it was estimated that less than'450 tons/day of
hydrocarbon emissions would be permissible for the standard to be
attained. Additional hydrocarbon emission reductions needed beyond the
comprehensive strategy are shown in Table 9-1. Two basic options were
available to the region to demonstrate further emission reductions to
meet the standard:
o Additional controls on existing sources
o Management of the growth of new sources and indirect
sources.
A description of these options is provided below.
ADDITIONAL CONTROLS ON EXISTING SOURCES
Table 9-2 summarizes additional control measures that could be
applied to provide the final increment of control necessary to attain
standard. These measures were not analyzed to the same level of detail
as the measures 1n the comprehensive strategy.
9-1
-------
Table 9-1. Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions Required to
Achieve the 0.08 PPM Photochemical Oxidant Standard
1985 (Tons/Day) 2000 (Tons/Day)
Base Line Emissions 797 1058
Allowable Hydrocarbon
Emissions3 < 450 < 450
Hydrocarbons Remaining
After Implementing
Comprehensive Strategy 511
604b 545C
Additional Hydrocarbon
Reductions Needed to ,
Meet Standard > 61 > 154D 95C
aVaries as a function of oxides of nitrogen emissions and the
spatial and temporal distribution of all precursor emissions,
^Assumes upper range of population forecast in Series 3
projections--6.1 million people in 2000.
cAssumes lower range of population forecast in Series 3
projections--5.4 million people in 2000.
As noted in the Table, the lowered Reid Vapor Pressure of gasoline
would result in a 2 to 4% reduction of HC emissions. However, it would
produce the undesirable side effect of making vehicle engines difficult
to operate in cold weather. If only small changes in vapor pressure are
required, engine start-up and warm-up problems are minimal but the
corresponding effectiveness of this measure is also minimal. This
program has been studied in the past on a number of occasions. A study
being conducted by the American Petroleum Institute has concluded this
9-2
-------
Table 9-2. Additional AQMP Control Measures for Existing Sources
and Approximate Emission Reduction Potentials8
Stationary Sources
o Lower Reid Vapor Pressure
o Ban Small Gasoline Engines
(e.g.* Lawnmowers)
Mobile Sources
o Catalytic Converter Retrofit
('71-'74 LDV)
o Evaporative Retrofit
(pre-1978)
Transportatlon Controls
o Increased Gas Tax
o Area License
o Smog Charges
o More Stringent Application
of Previously-cited Trans-
portation Controls
Other
o Gasoline Rationing
o Prohibiting Certain
Organic Solvent Use
1985
2000
VD
15-30
10-15
6
4
1*7
2-4
1-2
0.6
0.4
T/D
20-35
20-30
0
0
1*7
2-3
2-3
0
0
3-5 0.3-0.6
To be Implemen-
ted with land
use management
measures
Variable impact depending on stringency
of application and user groups affected.
(A 100% rationing program could yield
an additional 170 ton/day emission re-
duction by the year 2000.) Obviously,
a very direct and potentially effective
means of reducing hydrocarbon emissions.
Variable impact depending on stringency
of application. (A 100% prohibition
could yield an additional 160 ton per
day emission reduction by the year
2000.) This measure assumes going con-
siderably beyond the use of water-based
and high sol Ids content solvents and
BACT on organic solvent evaporation.
aAssumes prior implementation of the Comprehensive Strategy.
9-3
-------
proposal has very limited potential as an air pollution control measure.
The technical feasibility of this measure is questionable. Therefore,
it did not appear to be an attractive option for the AQMP.
A ban on the use and/or sale of small gasoline engines would
include lawnmowers, chain saws, small gasoline powered pumps and
generators, etc. In some cases alternatives can be found such as
electric lawn mowers; however, these alternatives were seen to have
other undesirable characteristics in terms of inconvenience (small
gasoline engines are ideal for use in situations where electrical power
is not conveniently available). Enforcement of this measure could be
difficult. This measure has many very obvious administrative and
implementation obstacles associated with it. It was not considered to
be an attractive option for the AQMP.
The catalyst and evaporative retrofit measures for light duty
vehicles are marginally effective by 1985 and decrease in effectiveness
as the retrofitted vehicles age and are eventually junked. Previous
retrofit programs attempted by the California Air Resources Board have
been unpopular, since there are no direct benefits to the vehicle owner.
These programs have a very short-term benefit and require rapid adoption
and implementation to achieve their greatest potential. Given the many
technical problems associated with retrofit programs in the past, these
control measures were not considered an attractive option for the AQMP.
The transportation controls listed can yield emission reductions
shown if stringently applied. For example, a 300% increase in the cost
of gasoline via a gasoline tax would yield an approximately 1 to 2
tons/day hydrocarbon emission reduction in 1985. A close assessment of
9-4
-------
any particular proposals is recommended prior to inclusion in the plan.
The measures listed as "other" can yield a range of emission
reductions depending on how stringently they are applied. A 100%
gasoline rationing program would yield an additional emission reduction
of about 170 tons/day by the year 2000, assuming prior implementation of
the comprehensive strategy. A 100% prohibition on organic solvent use
in the region could yield an additional emission reduction of about 160
tons/day beyond the comprehensive strategy. The effectiveness of
intermediate levels of stringency are difficult to estimate, but are
expected to be somewhat less than proportional. The impacts of these
measures are also variable depending on the stringency of their
application. Again, because of the very obvious problems associated
with implementing these measures, they did not appear to be attractive
options for the plan.
MANAGEMENT OF THE GROWTH OF NEW SOURCES AND INDIRECT SOURCES
An alternative to additional control over existing sources is to
manage the growth of new sources and indirect sources of emissions. New
Source Review (NSR) was excluded from the air quality evaluation of the
comprehensive strategy for a number of reasons:
o NSR is of variable effectiveness, depending on how
stringent the adopted rule is (e.g., off-set
provisions).
o The specific form of NSR appropriate and acceptable to
regional, State and Federal regulatory agencies has been
and continues to be debated.
o It is more appropriate to compare the effectiveness of
NSR with respect to other control programms using a
common baseline forecast. Such a forecast should not
already include an NSR assumption.
9-5
-------
In considering alternatives for attaining and maintaining the
oxidant standard after all reasonably available controls have been
implemented, NSR is of interest. Its effectiveness can range from zero
to a maximum of approximately 200 tons/day reduced by the year 2000.
The specific level of effectiveness achieved depends on the number and
type of sources subject to review, and the specific review criteria used
for determining compliance.
Indirect Source Review (ISR) is the counterpart to New Source
Review for sources that do not directly emit pollutants, but which cause
or induce emissions from other sources. Shopping centers, parking lots,
and airports are examples of indirect sources of pollution. The land
use management recommendations in the comprehensive strategy would rely
heavily on implementation by local governments, with no real mechanisms
for ensuring consistent implementation from one jurisdiction to another
across the region. An Indirect Source Review program conducted at the
regional level would provide the necessary mechanism. The Bay Area Air
Quality Management District has the legal authority to implement such a
program. With specific technical assistance from the Metropolitan
Transportation Commission and the Association of Bay Area Governments,
the BAAQMD could administer an ISR program for the region.
New Source Review and Indirect Source Review were determined to
ensure sufficient hydrocarbon emission reduction to allow attainment of
the oxidant standard and continued maintenance thereafter. In addition,
NSR and ISR regulations are such that they can provide some degree of
flexibility- Initially strict regulations can be changed and relaxed
somewhat after it has been demonstrated that the air quality standards
9-6
-------
can be attained and maintained in spite of such relaxation.
The role of the NSRl/ISR programs in relation to the comprehensive
strategy and baseline air quality is Illustrated in Figure 9-1. The
comprehensive strategy is shown to provide the bulk of the air quality
improvement between now and the year 2000, while the role of the NSR/ISR
programs would be to provide the incremental emission reduction (or
prevention) necessary to attain and maintain the federal oxidant
standard. As the comprehensive strategy is made more stringent,
restrictions on new source development can be made less stringent, and
vice versa.
THE STAFF-RECOMMENDED DRAFT PLAN
The draft air quality maintenance plan recommended was
comprehensive and included a broad range of control programs for
photochemical oxidants. It called for more controls on stationary
sources of air pollutants and on motor vehicles. It also included
proposals for changes in the region's transportation systems and for
management of development to achieve compact growth.
The recommended application of improved technological controls to
stationary sources and motor vehicles would produce the most substantial
improvements in air quality. The transportation and development
measures would act together to reduce automobile traffic, a major source
of air pollutant emissions. The stationary and mobile source controls,
together with transportation and development measures and new and
indirect source review programs, would ensure eventual attainment and
long-term maintenance of the Federal oxidant standard.
9-7
-------
I
00
a
a
T3
'x
o
k.
o
en
.IE
O
'5)
10
3
C
C
10
8.
X
01
Air quality under existing control^
Effect of the comprehensive strategy
Effect of NSR/ISR Programs'
.10
(.24)
(.12)
Federal oxidant standard (.08 ppm)
•J—>
1975
1985
2000 Year
Figure 9-1
Relative roles of new source review/indirect source review
programs and the comprehensive strategy in achieving and
maintaining the Federal oxidant standard in the San Francisco
Bay Region.
-------
The draft plan recommendations are summarized in Table 9-3, For
each action listed in the first column, subsequent columns of the table
indicate the agencies responsible for implementing the action, the
implementation schedule, costs, sources of financing and direct benefits
in terms of emission reductions. Other environmental,
institutional/financial, economic, and social impacts of the actions
were also presented in the draft plan.
Figure 9-2 highlights in graphic form the schedule for
implementation of each of the plan recommendations. Most of the
recommendations could be adopted by appropriate agencies within two
years of plan approval. However, full implementation would
realistically require several years beyond the adoption phase,
particularly for the most significant programs such as the use of best
available control technology (BACT). It is therefore unlikely that the
oxidant standard can be met in the Bay Area by 1982. The ultimate 1987
target year for attainment set by the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments can
be met through implementation of this plan.
9-9
-------
Table 9-3. Draft Oxidant Plan Recommendations
RECOMMENDATIONS
DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon emission
reductions, tons/day)
1985 2000
IMPLEMENTING
AGENCY
(or agencies)
SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
1 Fully
Implemented
TOTAL
COST/YEAR
Of
RECOMMENDED
ACTION
FINANCING
MECHANISM
LEGAL
AUTHORITY
I. Stationary source controls
GENERAL POLICY. MINIMIZE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM STATIONARY SOURCES
Action 1
Use paints and other
coatings that are water
based and/or have a
high solids content.
Action 2
Use closed systems for
storage and transfer
of organic liquids.
Action 3
Use best available
control technology
TBACT) on" new and
existing hydrocarbon
sources.
PROCESS
60 80 "ay Area Air A - 1978 to »7,170.000b
Pollution 1980
Control District
(BAAPCn) I 198S
40 65 BAAPCD A - 1978 $17,000,000b
I 1983
227 339 BAAPCO A - 1980 J529.000*
t?9,331.000b
I 1985
TECHNOLOGY
Chemical milling, plating
Auto service station storage tanks. Closed balanced system with secondary system
Action 4
Continue the review of
new I modified Industrial
and commercial facilities
(new source review)
Variable, BAAPCO Currently No direct
depending on being costs
the stringency Implemented
of application.
Maximum
effect of 64
tons /day of
hydrocarbon
emissions
reduced In
1985 and
200 tons/day
In 2000.
Administrative/
Regulatory
- Ad valor urn
tax revenues
— ARB subvention
Funds
Federal Clean
Air Act funds
Operating/
Private
Capital
Private
California
Pollution
Control
Financing
Authority
Federal
Small
Business
Administration
Lnan Program
BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation
BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation
BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation
BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation
II. Mobile source controls
GENERAL POLICY: MINIMIZE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
Action 5
Implement more stringent
venlcle (light duty and
heavy duty) exhaust
emission controls--approx.
SOT reduction below 1977
prescribed levels.
Action 6
Implement Inspection/
maintenance program for
light and heavy duty
vehicles.
62 California A - 1980 S3, 000*
Air Resources $24. 910. 000°
Board (CARB) I 1990
23 58 CARB and/or A 1978 Jl,395.000a
Bureau of H6,892,000b
Automotive 1 1985
, Repair
Private
I/M Program
revenues
State General
Fund
Mulford-
Carrell
Air Resources
Act
Hl'W
Legislation
Required
* Public agency
Private
9-10
-------
Table 9-3. (Cont'd)
RECOMMENDATIONS
Action 7
Require heavy duty
gasoline exhaust control
devices on existing
vehicles.
DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon mission
reductions, tons/day)
1985 2000
25
IMPLEMENT INC, SCHEC
AGENCY FOR At
(or agencies) A - Adot
1 - Full
Imp
ULE TOTAL
TION COST/YEAR
tlon 01
y RECOMMEND! I)
•merited ACTION
CARB » - 1«» W.OOO* „
fi, 554,000b
FINANCING
MECHANISM
• Private
1 • 1965
LIGAL
AUTHORITY ,
1
New
Legislation
Required
III. Transportation controls
GENERAL POLICY: REDUCE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS THROUGH TRANSPORTATION ACTIONS TO REDUCE VEHICLE
Actions
Increase tolls on
bridges.
Actions 9 & 10
Implement rcgionil
Dirking strategy to
discourage private
auto use and encourage
high-occupancy auto
use.
Action 9 - Parking tax
Action 10 - Preferential
parking for
carpools and
vanpools
Action 11
Provide additional
transit service.
Action 12
Increase bus and
carpool lanes/ramp
metering.
Action 13
Implement an auto
control zone in San
Francisco central
business district to
reduce traffic.
0.2 Not esti-
mated sep-
arately;
Included
beloH »lth
•mission
ii i-» rrduc t Ions — .
due to
compact
develop-
ment
0.3
Metropolitan A - 1980 (113.000,000°)
Transportation
USE
- Toll revenues
Coieitsslon (MTC) I - 1980
and California
Toll Bridge
Authority
Cities, counties.
employers, MTC
- Parking charges
if
AB 664 f
1
1
Local
Municipal
Tax Enabling
Legislation
A - 1980 »lS.OOOa .
$(«.000,000D)
1 - 1981
0.1
A - 1978 S8S6.000a
1 - 1985
0.7
MTC, transit A - 1978 $18, 540.000*
districts (e.g..
MUNI. AC. BART) I - 1985
0.2
0.1 \l/
Caltrans, transit A - 1979 S7.418.000*
districts, cities
and counties 1 - 1986
City of San A - Previously $128.000a
Francisco adopted
I - 1980
Public agency
b
Private
- Federal Mass
Transportation
Assistance
Programs
- Fare revenues
Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Funds
- State Highway
Trust Fund
diversions
- Federal Aid
Highway
Programs
- State Highway
Programs funds
- City General
Funds
- Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Funds
- Local Transit
District
Enabling
Legislation
- Bay Area
Rapid Transit
District
Enabling
Legislation
- Interagency
Memoranda
of Understanding
- AB 69 (State
Transportation
Planning
Enabling
Legislation)
- AB 363 (Bay
Region Trans-
portation
Planning
Legislation)
- Caltrans
Enabling
Legislation
- Local Planning
and Traffic
Control
Enabling
Legislation
San Francisco
Traffic
Ordinances
9-11
-------
Table 9-3. (Cont'd)
RECOMMENDATIONS
Action 14
Provide more ride
sharing services such
as Jitneys and
vanpools.
Action 15
Develop more
extensive
bicycle systems.
DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon emission
reductions, tons/day)
1985 2000
1.7 Not esti-
mated sep-
arately;
Included
below with
reductions
2 „ (Jut to
compact
develop-
ment
IMPLEMENT INC,
AGENCY
(or agencies)
1
1
Caltrans.
Employers,!
MTC
Cities, counties,
MTC, Caltransi
i
SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
I - Fully
Implemented
A - Previously
adopted
I - 1979
A - 1980
I - 1985
TOTAL
COST/YEAR
OF
RECOMMENDED
ACTION
J300.0004
1438,000'
' Public agency
L.
° Private
FINANCING
MECHANISM
Federal Mass
Transportation
Assistance
Program
Federal-Aid
Highway
Program
- Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Funds
LEGAL
AUTHOR I TV
Federal Energy
Legislation
Federal -Aid
Highway
Legislation
- Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Legislation
IV. Development and land use management
GENERAL POLICY: ALTER REGIONWIOJ DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS TO REDUCE AUTOMOBILE TRAVEL BY MEANS OF LOCAL AND REGIONAL POLICIES ON LAND USE AND URBAN SERVICES
Ihe reductions in
emissions are based
on a total population
in the region of 5.«
million. If the
population were at
the higher range
projected (6.1
million), tne emission
reductions shown would
be higher, but so
would the total
from which the
reductions would be
subtracted.
Not 24 Cities, counties.
estimated Local Agency
Formation
Commissions,
special districts.
ABAG, BAAPCO, MTC,
State Water Resources
Control Board,
California Department
of Transportation,
U.S. Department of
Transportation,
Enviro mental
Protection Agency
A - 1978 Direct administrative Depends on
and regulatory costs specific
I 2000 to be estimated when actions
agencies specify actions
they will take to
carry out recommendation
for compact development.
Existing authority
contained in California
Government Code; Health
and Safety Code; State
Constitution; relevent
Federal legislation.
(Editor's Note: The draft AQMP proposed 16 policies and 49 actions to implement
the general policy on land use and development management. They
are not listed here for brevity's sake.)
9-12
-------
Figure 9-2 SCHEDULE FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE PLAN
ACTION
YEAR
>1978|
.1980
1985.
I I I1990!
1. Use paints and other coatings that are water based
and/or have a high solids content.
2. Use closed systems for storage and transfer of organic
liquids.
3. Require Best Available Control Technology (BACT) on
new and existing sources.
4. Continue the Review of new and modified industrial
and commercial facilities (New Source Revlew/NSR).
5. Adopt more stringent vehicle exhaust emission
standards.
6. Implement mandatory vehicle inspection/maintenance
program.
7. Require exhaust emission control devices on existing
heavy duty gasoline vehicles.
8. Increase bridge tolls.
9. Implement a regional parking tax.
10. Require provision of preferential parking for
carpools.
11. Provide additional transit service.
12. Provide additional bus and carpool lanes and/or ramp
' metering on selected freeway segments.
13. Implement an Auto Free Zone In the San Francisco
Central Business District.
14. Implement a regional scale carpool matching and van-
pooling program.
15. Develop more extensive bicycle systems
Achieve more compact development throughout the
region. Adopt Indirect Source Review Program.
adopt program/regulation
Implementation
9-13
-------
Chapter 10
PLAN REVIEW, ADOPTION AND APPROVAL
PROCESS
Air quality actions to attain and maintain the Federal oxidant
standard in the Bay Area were contained in one chapter of the
Association of Bay Area Government's Environmental Management Plan.
•
Neither the Clean Air Act nor the Federal Water Pollution Control
Act—the major Federal legislation under which ABAG's Environmental
Management Plan is developed and maintained—specify a local approval
process for required plans. The Clean Air Act does require that a State
adopt the State Implementation Plan, but the 1977 Amendments provide for
a somewhat different approach.
While the 1977 Amendments retain the provision for State adoption,
the portion of the SIP for a non-attainment area, where possible, shall
be prepared by an organization designated under Section 174 of the Act.
The same plan is required by Section 172 to include evidence of public
and local government involvement and consultation. It is also required
to include evidence that the State, the general purpose local
governments, or a regional agency designated by general purpose local
governments, have adopted by legally enforceable means (such as
statutes, regulations or ordinances) the necessary requirements,
schedules, timetables for implementing controls and are committed to
implement and enforce the appropriate elements of the plan.
Thus, while no specific provisions for a local adoption process are
included in the Act, certain points ought to be considered:
10-1
-------
1. The lead agency, if it is assigned by the plan certain
responsibilities, should provide evidence of its
commitment by policy board action.
2. Other implementing agencies, by similar action, should
indicate their commitment to carry out control measures
or strategies included in the plan.
3. The State, while sharing authority/responsibility for
the preparation of the SIP provisions for non-attainment
areas, retains the responsibility to adopt the plan.
Another significant principle in plan adoption does not emerge
directly from the Act, but indirectly from the philosophy underlying the
1977 Amendments. To provide for an implementable plan — and to
effectively consider the social and economic consequences of carrying
out that plan—there ought to be an orderly process for local plan
approval and concomitant public participation in that process.
In the Bay Area, the principles described above were used in
designing the specific approval process for the Bay Area's Environmental
Management Plan. Key features in that process relevant to air quality
planning were:
1. Stationary source controls, which would be implemented
locally by the Bay Area Air Quality Management District,
were prepared by the BAAQMD* staff and adopted by the
District Board prior to ABAG action.
2. Similarly, transportation measures were prepared and
adopted by the Metropolitan Transportation Corrmission.
3. ABAG's approval schedule allowed considerable time for
public participation and to allow local elected
officials of the region to fully consider divergent
viewpoints in adopting a plan to be submitted to the
State.
^formerly the BAAPCD
10-2
-------
PROVIDING ADEQUATE TIME FOR PUBLIC REVIEW
The Environmental Management Plan was drafted as an Integrated air
and water quality, water supply, and solid waste plan for the Bay
Region—the first time such a plan had been attempted for a large region
with environmental problems so complex. A draft of the plan was
released for public review and conments in December 1977.
At the time, it was expected that the draft plan would undergo
extensive revision as a result of public conments and would be approved
by ABAC in April 1978. A lengthy series of public workshops and
hearings were scheduled prior to actions by various ABAG-approving
bodies. These include the EMTF, RPC, the Executive Board, and finally
ABAG's General Assembly (in which each member city and county has a
vote).
During the early stages of the public hearing process one major
theme of comment emerged rapidly. It became readily apparent that local
cities and counties and public interest groups did not feel adequate
time had been allowed for public review of the massive pian--although
almost all the reconmended actions of the plan had been described in a
lengthy progress report for the draft plan in September/October 1977.
The fact that the air quality chapter of the plan included several
controversial matters and that the schedule for review and action was
compressed inevitably led to complaints that the plan was being forced
down the throats of a concerned, objecting group of local governments
and citizens. As a result, the original schedule was modified—to allow
more time for public advice and more time for local governments to
consider the plan. Figure 10-1 depicts the final process and schedule
for adoption of the initial Environmental Management Plan.
10-3
-------
o
I
INITIAL
TECHNICAL
STAFF
WORK
COMPLETED
Figure 10-1
Process for Developing the Plan
PUBLIC
• HEARINGS
DRAFT
ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT
PLAN
TECHNICAL
ADVISORY
COMMITTEES'
INPUT
ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT
TASK FORCE
APPROVAL
PUBLIC
WORKSHOPS
ABAG REGIONAL
PLANNING
COMMITTEE
APPROVAL
ABAG
EXECUTIVE
BOARD
APPROVAL
ABAG
GENERAL
ASSEMBLY
APPROVAL
STATE AND
FEDERAL
AGENCY
APPROVALS
DECEMBER-
1977
1978
-------
The Joint Technical Staff, of course, fully expected that the draft
plan would change through the public review and hearing process, but it
was difficult to present this view without appearing defensive about the
technical analysis. It was vitally important for the staff to maintain
a disinterested view of their previous technical work and to fully
consider the adverse reactions toward technically sound recommendations
without rejecting the reactions. Crucial to the adoption process was
the ability to consider public acceptability as a criterion—so was the
ability to modify plan recommendations until acceptability was achieved.
This did not mean, however, watering down the recommendations simply to
achieve acceptability, for Federal law required a plan to attain the
oxidant standard and, once attained, maintain the standard thereafter.
Therefore, if certain actions were unacceptable to the public (however
technically sound), they had to be replaced with other measures in order
that the plan would be approved by the State and EPA.
SPECIFIC CHANGES TO THE DRAFT AQMP
Because of existing and projected air quality problems, a
comprehensive strategy of additional technological controls for
stationary and mobile sources, and transportation and land use controls
was recommended in the December 1977 draft AQMP. All were identified as
needed for meeting and maintaining the air quality standards. The draft
recommendations are summarized in Table 10-1.
The review and modifications to the AQMP by the EMTF clearly
illustrated how politically sensitive many of the air pollution control
programs were in the Bay Region. By far the most substantial changes to
the plan occurred at this first stage of policy review. Subsequent
10-5
-------
Table 10-1. Summary of AQMP Draft Recommendations and Changes by ABAG's Policy Bodies
DRAFT PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS
CHANGES BY ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT TASK FORCE
CHANGES BY REGIONAL
PLANNING COMMITTEE
CHANGES BY
EXECUTIVE BOARD
CHANGES BY
GENERAL ASSEMBLY
o
i
Use "best available control
technology" on new and existing
hydrocarbon sources. Including
using paints with water base
and/or high sol Ids content and
closed systems for handling
organic liquids.
Use "available control technology"
on existing sources giving reason-
able time to pay for new equipment
and giving consideration to other
effects of requiring such controls
In each case.
Continue to review new and
modified Industrial and
commercial sources (requiring
low emissions or sometimes
prohibiting such sources on
a case-by-case basis).
Use "lowest achievable emission
rate" for new or modified sources.
Continue tp review new and modified
sources, using "offsets" and other
provisions of law where possible in
lieu of prohibitions. (An "offset"
Is a reduction in emissions from
existing Industry or commerce by an
amount greater than the emissions
from a new Industry. The reduction
1s paid for by the new industry.)
Require 50% cleaner vehicles
than called for in 1977 Clean
Air Act Amendments
No major changes.
Carry out program of Inspection
and maintenance of all vehicles
to Insure that pollution con-
trols are operating properly.
Make recommendation Statewide.
Require exhaust controls on all
existing, large gasoline trucks.
Add condition that if State or
Federal requirements for vehicle
controls are delayed, this region
should be given extensions beyond
the Federal compliance dates.
No major changes.
Develop procedures
other than offset
to permit industrial
growth and not penalize
this region with respect
to other regions.
No major changes.
No major changes.
No major changes.
-------
DRAFT PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS
Increase tolls on bridges.
Impose regional parking tax.
Provide preferential parking
for car pools and vanpools.
Provide additional transit
service.
Increase bus and carpool lanes
and ramp metering.
Create an auto control zone In
San Francisco central business
district.
Provide more ride sharing
services such as jitneys and
vanpools and develop more
extensive bicycle systems.
Alter reglonwide development
patterns to reduce urban sprawl
and reduce automobile travel.
CHANGES i»V ENVIRONMENTAL 1
MANAGEMENT TASK FORCE
Add condition that Increases should
only be made if needed to finance
public transit service Improvements.
Delete.
No major changes.
Replace with three-fold transit
Improvement strategy (recommended
by MTC):
o MTC to adopt service Improve-
ment objectives that can be
financed by existing resources
o MTC to continue efforts to
identify need for additional
services and pursue services
if justified
0 3SX Increase In Hdership if
there Is Increased Federal
and State funding.
No major changes.
Move to continuing planning
process and change to central
business districts in aeneral.
No major changes.
Move to continuing planning
process.
Identify for Executive Board
decision three categories of
controls to provide needed
emission reductions after 1985:
o Small gasoline engines
o Off-road vehicles (for
example, construction
vehicles)
o Transportation controls such
as gas tax. road tolls, and
additional transit.
CHANGES BY REGIONAL
PLANNING COMMITTEE
No major changes.
CHANGES BY
EXECUTIVE BOARD
Delete (recommended by
Metropolitan Trans-
portation Commission rMTCIl
No major changes.
Delete reference to 3SX;
call for additional
transit subsidies fro*
State and Federal
governments (recom-
mended by MTC)
No major changes.
Delete from continuing
planning process.
No major changes.
Remove specific reference
to land use policies from
continuing planning process
tasks.
Carry out in 1990. or after.
one or more of the following
to maintain oxidant standard!
o Controls on small gasolim
engines
o Controls on off -highway
vehicles
o Additional transit
o More stringent vehicle
emission controls
CHANGES BY
iENERAL ASSEMBLY
No chanpes.
-------
changes to be made by ABAG's RPC, Executive Board, and General Assembly
were less significant in terms of the technical detail, but key to
providing substantial political support for the plan as it moved through
the process. The process of changes made by the EMTF and the subsequent
policy review bodies represents an interesting case study of how
technical analysis of a complex physical problem (in this case air
pollution) is transformed into a series of publicly and politically
acceptable policy recommendations for broad-based air pollution control
strategies.
Attention by technical staff was given to summarizing and
simplifying the presentation of the results of the analysis. The
primary indicator that was used for comparative evaluation of the
relative effects of the recommended strategies was the tons of
pollutants removed per day. Costs were summarized in both annualized
average and present discounted values, although it was recognized that
there could be wide variations in the cost estimates. Some impacts of
the proposals were difficult to quantify. This was particularly true
regarding issues such as impacts of the plan on special populations and
on the housing market.
This phase of plan development was characterized by participation
from the broad spectrum of public and private organizations and
concerned individuals. The models provided the quantified targets that
had to be reached and the policy implications of not achieving certain
tonnage reductions. As modifications were made to the initial
recommendations, additional technical analyses were provided to evaluate
whether the changes would result in a plan that met the Federal
standards.
10-8
-------
With respect to the draft plan recommendations, a number of
specific changes were made. These changes were, for the most part, made
to come up with a more widely acceptable plan. In some cases partial
reruns of the models were required and in others they were not. By
major category of controls the major changes (also summarized in Table
10-1) were:
o Stationary source controls - The use of "best available
control technology (BACT)" for new and existing sources
was changed to "lowest achievable emission rate (LAER)"
for new sources (as required by the Clean Air Act of
1977) and "available control technology (ACT)" for
existing sources. The main controversy regarding BACT
was its precedent setting nature for plans to be
prepared for other regions.
Currently the Clean Air Act defines BACT in terms of
technologies identified in any approved SIP. In reality
much of the controversy on BACT during the EMTF review
centered around semantics. Numerous industrial
representatives felt "reasonably available control
technology (RACT)" should be used. The Joint Technical
Staff felt that suggestion was a significant technical
compromise that jeopardized the abil ity to prepare a
plan to meet the standard. In the end, the language
adopted for existing industries was "available control
technology (ACT)." The definition of ACT closely
resembled the definition of BACT used in the Clean Air
Act. Further, in specifying a number of actual control
technologies for different industries, it was generally
agreed that most of the technologies were actually RACT.
The significance of this last point was that no
additional simulations of these types of technological
controls would be needed since their representation in
the models were unchanged.
The continuation of the new source review (NSR) program
was also contested. It was argued that NSR meant no
industrial growth—stifl ing the region's economy and
driving out both existing industry seeking to expand and
new industries seeking to locate within the region. In
response to these concerns, a special study was
undertaken to examine the economic, social and air
quality impacts of NSR policy on the Bay Area. This
necessitated additional analysis using the regional
econometric model (10-1). The main conclusion of the
study was that NSR would not adversely impact the
region. Although considerable concern was voiced over
10-9
-------
NSR policy, it also remained in the plan for a separate
reason. The Clean Air Act requires of all areas seeking
time extensions to meet the carbon monoxide and/or
photochemical oxidant standards that a permit program be
in place, such as NSR to review new and modified
industrial sources.
o Mobile source controls - Three basic proposals for
additional mobile controls were made in the draft plan:
1) requiring a 50% more stringent vehicle exhaust
standard than called for in the 1977 Clean Air Act
Amendments; 2) carrying out an inspection and
maintenance program for light and heavy duty vehicles;
and 3) requiring exhaust retrofit devices for existing
heavy duty gasoline trucks. By and large, these
recommendations were unchanged through the various
reviews. The EMTF did recormiend the latter two measures
be adopted statewide. Furthermore, a condition was
added in the plan that if State or Federal requirements
for vehicle controls are delayed, this region should be
given extensions beyond the federal compliance dates.
In all likelihood the lack of controversy locally
concerning proposals that have been very controversial
Statewide and nationally can be explained by two major
factors: 1) the responsibility for implementation
rested with the California Air Resources Board and was
thus once removed from the public officials developing
the plan locally; and 2) no other measures available for
local adoption and implementation as alternatives were
acceptable for wide-scale support within the region.
0 Transportation controls - A wide variety of
transportation incentives and disincentives were
recommended but several of the disincentives proposed to
discourage private auto use were deleted during the plan
review phase. These included: 1) increasing tolls on
bridges; 2) imposing a regional parking tax; and 3)
creating an auto control zone in San Francisco central
business district. The deletions were not unexpected
since the measures were locally quite controversial.
The incentive-type transportation controls (in reality,
transportation system improvement measures) were adopted
with little, if any, changes. These measures included:
1) providing preferential parking for vanpools and
carpools; 2) providing additional transit service; 3)
increasing bus and carpool lanes and ramp metering; and
4) providing more ride sharing services such as jitneys
and vanpools and developing more extensive bicycle
systems.
Earlier analysis with the modeling system indicated what
the reduction in vehicle miles traveled could be
expected from the initial transportation recommendations
10-10
-------
and the resultant tonnage reduction of air pollutants.
Subsequent modifications to the transportation measures
were analyzed to insure that the new package of controls
would also result in the same reduction.
o Development controls and land use management - The draft
plan proposed a series of land use policies and actions
to reduce the overall vehicle miles traveled in the
region. The objective of reduced auto travel was to be
accomplished through a slightly more compact development
regionwide, a better balance between jobs and housing,
and a shift of more people to carpools, vanpools, and
public transit. By far, the most controversy in the
plan centered around the land use management proposals
and they were eventually deleted entirely from the plan.
The major concerns surrounding land uses were: that it
would open up the possibility of regional, State and
Federal regulatory bodies usurping local land use
decisions, and that it would have adverse socio-economic
impacts, particularly in the housing market.
Additionally, the land use controls had not been
demonstrated to be as effective as other control
measures. For example, the modeling analysis estimated
that land use management results in only about 5 percent
(approximately 24 tons/day of hydrocarbons) improvement
in air quality. Compared to the other measures, they
appeared to be the least cost effective.
The draft plan identified land use controls as needed for long-term
maintenance of the oxidant standard, as opposed to most measures which
were needed to attain the oxidant standard. Thus, with their deletion,
a deficit in the emission reductions needed to show long-term
maintenance appeared. As a substitute for the land use controls the
ABAC Executive Board in its review added the following: Carry out in
1980, or after, one or more of the following to maintain the oxidant
standard through the year 2000:
o Controls on small gasoline engines
o Controls on off-highway vehicles
o Additional transit
o More stringent vehicle emission controls
10-11
-------
The emissions inventory proved to be useful in analyzing the
impacts of these proposed controls. The inventory contained the
emissions reduction potential of each of these measures which could be
compared with the needed 24 tons due to removing the land use management
proposals.
As readily apparent from the table, the General Assembly of ABAG
concurred with the Executive Board recommended plan of June 1978. The
General Assembly also approved a continuing planning process for the
Environmental Management Plan (the air quality portions of that process
are described in the next chapter). The plan is currently being
reviewed by State and Federal agencies.
Table 10-2 shows the locally adopted AQMP policies and actions.
EVALUATION OF THE PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROGRAM
The process conducted for approval of the Environmental Management
Plan was explicitly designed to produce a politically acceptable,
implementable plan. Despite a great deal of controversy, the plan was
adopted by ABAG's General Assembly on a 71-5 vote. Because of the
importance of the plan, many groups and individuals that previously had
not dealt with ABAG on a regular basis became more active as a regional
constituency. They helped shape the compromises that eventually
resulted in a locally adopted plan. They also helped ensure a high
degree of attendance at more than 150 sessions of the EMTF and its
policy and technical advisory committees.
Another "success" of the public participation program was that the
task force didn't go the way of so many toothless committees--i ts
10-12
-------
Figure 10-2. Air QtrtrTttyMaintenance Plan Recommendations
KCOKNOATIOMS
DIRECT IENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon Mission
reductions, tons/day)
IMS tOOO
RESPONSIBLE
AGENCY
(or agencies)
SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
I - Fully
Implemented
TOTAL
COST/YEAR
OF
RECOMMENDED
ACTION
FINANCING
MECHANISM
LEGAL
AUTHORITY
I. Stationary source controls
GENERAL FOUCY: REDUCE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM STATIONARY SOURCES
Action 1
Use available control
technology en existing
Hydrocarbon sources,
•1 loving t reasonable
Mortlutlon schedule
for ilr pollution con-
trol equipment. Avall-
ible control technol-
ogy means in emission
limitation based on the
maximum degree of re-
duction of hydrocarbons
•iltted from or which
results fro* any emit-
ting facility, which the
permitting authority.
on a case-by-case basis.
taking Into account*
energy, environmental
and economic Impacts and
other costs, determines
Is achievable for such
facility through appli-
cation of available
methods, systems and
techniques. Technology
for selected processes.
which have been Included
In the projections of
emission reductions, are
as follows:
t2S 337 Bay Area Air A - 1980 (539,000*
Pollution .,.„ -__ -...h
Control District I - 1985 •$18,000,000D
(BAAPCD)
Administrative/
Regulatory
• Ad valorum
tax revenues
- ARB subvention
Funds
- Federal Clean
Air Act funds
Operating/
Maintenance
- Private
Capital
- Private
- California
Pollution
Control
Financing
Authority
- Federal
Snail
Business
Administration
Loan Programs
BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation
•Costs are considered
underestimates due to
choice of discount rate.
PROCESS TECHNOLOGY
Organic storage Secondary seals
Tar pots Loading door assembly
Paint spray booth Incinerator or low/no solvent coating;,
Dry cleaning Closed system with solvent recovery
Gasoline bulk storage Floating roof or fixed roof S vapor recovery
Auto service station storage tanks Balanced system
Auto fill operations Balance system
Action 2
Continue the review
of new and modified
Industrial facilities
(new source review),
using offsets and/or
other provisions of
the Clean A1r Act
Amendments of 1977
to allow for a reason-
able level of growth
consistent with the
requirements of the
act. Use technology
to produce the lowest
achievable emission
rate (LAER). as defined
by the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977.
on new and expanded
hydrocarbon sources.
Combination of BAAPCD Currently Increased cost
ATT In Action 1 b»1"9 to Industry
and LAER are Implemented for emission
estimated to re- offset purchases.
duce hydrocarbon
emissions by ZZ5
tons/day 1n 1985
and 337 tons/day
In 2000. From
NSR and offsets.
64 tons/day are '
targeted for 1985.
Additional emis-
sion reductions
required to main-
tain standards
will depend on
regional growth
rates and success
of other control
programs. It Is
highly unlikely
that more than
150 tons/day can
be reduced by
2000. .
* Public agency
» Private
BAAPCD
enabling
legislation
10-13
-------
RECOMMENDATIONS
DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon emission
rtductloni, tons/day)
1985 2000
RESPONSIBLE
AGENCY
(or agencies)
SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
I - Fully
Implemented
TOTAL
COST/YEAR
OF
RECOMMENDED
ACTION
FINANCING
MECHANISM
LEGAL
AUTHORITY
II. Mobile source controls
GENERAL POLICY: REDUCE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
Action 3
Implement more stringent
vehicle (light duty ind
heavy duty) exhaust
emission controls--approx
50t reduction below 1977
prescribed levels.
Action 4
Implement Statewide In-
spection/maintenance
program for light and
heavy duty vehicles.
Action 5
Require exhaust control
devices on existing
heavy duty gasoline
vehicles Statewide.
Action 6
Permit no further delays
1n (mlewntlng strict
emission requirements on
automobiles, provided,
however, that 1f such de-
lays are granted by either
the California Air Re-
sources Board or Congress,
this region should be pro-
vided with extensions be-
yond the deadlines requlrei
by the Clean A1r Act Amend
ments of 1977.
62 California A - 1980 $3.000* _ - Private Mul ford-
Air Resources S24.910.00011 Carrel 1
Board (CARS) I - 1990 Air Reiources
Act
23 58 CARB and/or A - 1978 ll.sgS.OOO". - I /M Program New
Bureau of $16,892,000" revenues Legislation
Automotive I - 198S - State General Required
Repair Fund
25 - CARB A - 1979 tS.OOO* . - Private New
11.534.000° Legislation
1-1985 Required
i
• Public agency
b Private
10-14
-------
RECOMMENDATIONS
DIRECT BENEFITS RESPONSIBLE SCHEDULE TOTAL
(Hydrocarbon emission AGENCY FOR ACTION COST/YEAR
reductions, tons/day) (or agencies) A - Adoption OF FINANCING
IMS 2000 I - Fully RECOMMENDED MECHANISM
Implimented ACTION
III. Transportation controls
GENERAL POLICY: REDUCE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS THROUGH TRANSPORTATION ACTIONS TO REDUCE VEHICLE USE
Action 7
preferential parking
for carpools and
vanpools.
ActionS
Pursue a three-fold
transit Improvement
strategy.
(1) MTC. 1n coopera-
tion with transit
operators, will
adopt service
Improvement ob-
jectives which
can be financed
by the existing
cornel tment of
resources to
transit. Im-
proved capacity.
service, and
rldership are
contemplated.
A measure of
the Improve-
ment expected
should be agreed
to and committed
to In the context
of the RTP by
October 1. 1978.
(Z) MTC will continue
Its efforts to
Identify the need
for additional
services (as It
has, for example.
in the elderly
and handicapped
pro0v*Mi and MOTC
recently in the
Minority Trans-
portation Needs
Assessment Pro-
ject (HTNAP) and
to pursue provid-
ing additional
services as they
are justified. A
measure of the
Improvement ex-
pected will con-
• tinue to be
developed as
these special
needs are examined
and as the de-
mand for transit
services expands
generally.
(3) During the commute
hours all major
transit systems
in the Bay Area
•re at capacity.
Any substantial
Increase in rider-
ship will be de-
pendent upon In-
creased Federal
or State financial
assistance. The
•mount of rlder-
- Federal Aid
0-1 Not ostl- Cities, counties, A - 1978 SB86.000* highway
mated sep- employers, MTC. programs
irately I - 198S - Local Trans-
1.3
•
\
portation
Development
Act funds
MTC. transit A - 1978 S3I million' - Federal Mass
districts (e.g.. Transportation
MUNI. AC. BART) I - 1985 Assistance
Programs
- Fare revenues
- Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Funds
- State Highway
Trust Fund
diversions
/
.
Public agency
Private
LEGAL
AUTHORITY
- Cal trans enabling
legislation
- Local planning and
traffic control
enabling
legislation
- Local Transit
District
Enabling
Legislation
- Bay Area
Rapid Transit
District
Enabling
Legislation
- Interagency
Memoranda
of Undtrstandlng
.
10-15
-------
RECOMMENDATIONS
DIRECT BENEFITS
Hydrocarbon (million
reductions, tons/day)
198S 2000
RESPONSIBLE
AGENCY
(or agencies)
SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adaption
I - Fully
Implemented
TOTAL
COST/YEAR
OF
DECONCNOEO
ACTION
FINANCING
MECHANISM
LEGAL
AUTHORITY
ship Increase Is
directly affected
by the amount of
Increased State
and Federal fund-
Ing. Provision
of additional
transit capacity
represents a
positive trans-
portation strategy.
Thus the State
and Federal
governments are
encouraged to
provide necessary
funding support
for transit Im-
provements to off-
set any air qual-
ity deficiencies
caused by delet-
ing less desirable
transportation
control measures.
Without this
financial support,
transit capacity
cannot be signi-
ficantly expanded.
Action 9
Support development of
high occupancy vehicle
lanei and/or ramp
metering on selected
freeway segments when
justified on an Individ-
ual project basis.
Action 10
Provide more ride
sharing services such
as jitneys and van-
pools. Objectives
need to be developed
and monitored to
gauge the desirable
rate of expansion.
Action 11
Develop more extensive
and safe bicycle systems
and storage facilities.
Objectives need to be
developed and monitored
to gauge the desirable
rate of expansion.
Action 12
MTC 11 requested to
consider the following
action: "Complete
construction of
certain portions of
State freeway systems
1n which there are now
pollution-causing
naps."
0.2 Not estimated Caltrans. tran- A - 1979
separately. sit districts.
cities and I • HM
counties.
t7.438.000*
1.7
2.0
Federal Aid
Highway Pro-
grams
State High-
way Programs
funds
AB 69 (State
Transportation
Planning Enabling
Legislation)
AB 363 (Bay Region
Transportation
Planning Legis-
lation)
Caltrans Enabling
Legislation
Local Planning and
Traffic Control
Enabling
Legislation
Caltrans,
employers,
MTC
A- Previously
adopted
I - 1979
$300,000'
Federal
Transportation
Funding
Cities,
counties,
NIC.
Caltrans
A - 1980
1 - 1985
M3B.OOO*
Federal Aid
Highway Pro-
grams
Local Trans-
portation De-
velopment Act
Funds
Federal-Aid
Highway
Legislation
Local Trans-
portation
Development Act
Legislation
MTC
197B
MTC enabling
legislation
10-16
-------
RECOMMENDATIONS
DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon trillion
reductions, tons/day)
1H5 IOW
RESPONSIBLE
AGENCY
(OR AGENCIES)
SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
I • Fully
IWlMMtld
TOTAL
COST/TEAR
OF
RECOMMENDED
ACTION
FINANCING
MECHANISM
LEGAL
AUTHORITY
IV. Other measures
GENERAL POLICY: ENSURE MAINTENANCE OF THE OKIDANT STANDARD IEYOND IMS-67
iActlon 13
Adopt bttattn IMS
ind 1M7. tnd 1*ple-
•ent In 1990 or there-
after, on* or ogre of
the following neasures
to cnturt HlnUmnc*
of tte oxldmt stindtrd
through tht fttr 2000.
subjtct to furthtr
tvcluttlon of thi
•Msum during tht
continuing planning
process:
0 Reduce hydro-
carbon Missions
fron swll gtso-
llne engines
o Reduce hydro-
urbon oolsslons
froi off-htolhity
•oblle sources
o tapte
stringent vehicle
•ttowst ertsslon
controls—ApproM-
Metetjr 60-an
reduction below
197? prescribed
levels.
o Provide additional
transit
?4
ARB; BAAPCOi
ABAC; HTC;
transit
operators.
A - 19BS-87
I - 1990-95
To be
detent ned
To be
detemlned
Clean Air Act.
Nulford-
Carrel I Act
10-17
-------
recommendations unneeded and unnecessary. The public visibility of the
task force and its composition—backed by requirements of Federal
law—helped ensure that the task force's recommendations would be
considered carefully. Virtually every task force recommendation was
accepted without change by the ABAG policy committees and the General
Assembly. General Assembly approval gave local elected officials a
greater sense of local control over environmental protection strategies.
Subsequently, the State Legislature adopted changes in State law
recognizing the authority of ABAG's General Assembly over the content of
the plan, and formalizing the Federal-State-regional partnership
contemplated by various Federal laws.
Despite the adoption of the plan, there were problems that
developed in the public participation program. These problems tended to
be overshadowed by the plan adoption process, but should be pointed out.
Public participation objectives had not been stated in quantifiable
terms, making evaluation difficult. Funds were not available for public
opinion surveys, which might have helped shape final control measures.
There was simply not enough time for pre- and post-testing of materials
produced for their effectiveness in informing the public.
The time constraints also made it difficult to provide information
on localized impacts to city councils, community groups and suburban
daily and weekly newspapers. Suburban dailies and television stations
especially needed more individual briefing sessions. This became most
obvious during the final selection of strategies and during the last few
steps in the plan approval process. The staffs were seldom able to
speak to community groups more than once; many lost touch with the
10-18
-------
process over the two-year period.
Earlier it was noted that the staff had to maintain a disinterested
view of their previous technical work as the plan moved from its initial
draft through the review bodies until it was finally approved by the
General Assembly. In general, the staff attempted to provide
1 '{* ''-
information about the draft plan and the technical reasons why the
control measures were recommended. As with most planning programs,
there sometimes is a fine line between presenting information about what
is recommended and "defending" the recommendations. During the early
stages of the public review process, certain special interest
groups—but not all—maintained that the staff was "defending" the
recommendations. It is very important to recognize the ability of
interest groups to communicate their points of view effectively. The
agency's responsibility is to ensure that information is fairly
presented.
The difficulties cited above will need more attention during the
continuing planning process, described in the next chapter.
1977 CLEAN AIR ACT REQUIREMENTS
Shortly after the initial plan for oxidant was adopted by ABAG's
General Assembly in June 1978, the Bay Area agencies (ABAG, BAAQMD and
MTC) received preliminary comments on the plan as it related to
requirements of the 1977 Clean Air Act. Three key points of the comments
were that the plan needed to include:
o Demonstration of reasonable further progress
o Implementation of EPA's RACT Measures
10-19
-------
o Demonstration of legal, financial and manpower
commitments to carry out the plan.
Demonstration of Reasonable Further Progress
On receipt of the comments, the agencies in the Bay Area projected
reductions in stationary source organic emissions for the industrial
source categories in the BAAQMD baseline inventory. Also projected was
the course of motor vehicle emission reductions. The adopted
transportation controls were assumed to be of negligible effectiveness
prior to 1982, consistent with the implementation schedule in the plan,
then assumed to be of linearly increasing effectiveness between 1982 and
1985. The cumulative course of the control recommendations were then
described. It was shown that the plan's control measures will provide
more than minimum reasonable further progress toward attainment of the
0.08 ppm oxidant standard.
Implementation of EPA RACT Measures
The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 require the use of reasonably
available control technology—at a minimum—in all areas of the country
where the 0.08 ppm oxidant standard is being exceeded. In October 1978,
EPA identified reasonably available control technologies (RACTs), also
known as control technology guidelines (CTGs) for 12 categories of
sources. Controls for additional source categories are forthcoming.
On comparing the EPA-defined RACTs with existing local regulations,
the Bay Area Air Quality Management District found that two existing
district regulatory requirements are more stringent. Eight BAAQMD
regulatory requirements are less stringent than RACT requirements. One
source does not exist in the district, and one District regulation is
10-20
-------
equivalent but needs clarification. A comparison of the RACT
requirements with 1978 District regulations is shown in Table 10-3.
Table 10-4 is a summary comparison of emission reductions from EPA RACT
measures with'those attributed to Action.1 - Available Control
«Sf ','
Technology by source category.
To comply with the 1977 Clean Air Act requirements, the District
set public hearings through March 1979 to consider adoption of proposed
rules. For other source categories not covered by current EPA CTGs, but
for which emission reductions have been identified in Action 1, the
District plans to adopt and implement regulations on the tentative
schedule shown in Table 10-4.
Demonstration of Legal. Financial and Manpower Commitments
This task was identified for completion early in 1979 as the
non-attainment plan (covering photochemical oxidants, carbon monoxide
and total suspended particulates) —adopted by ABAG's General Assembly in
January 1979—moved through the approval process at the State and
Federal levels.
10-21
-------
Table 10-3. COMPARISON OF EPA RACT MEASURES AND BAAQMD REGULATIONS
EPA RACT MEASURE
CONTROL REQUIRED
BAAQMD REGULATORY
CONTROL
COMMENT
ro
ro
I. Service Station
Phase I (Tank)
2. Fixed Roof Tanks
* 3. Gasoline Bulk Plants
(Truck filling)
* 4. Gasoline Bulk Terminals
5. Metal Degreaslng
6. Cut Back Asphalt
7. Auto Body Painting
8. Can Coating
Fabric Coating
Paper Coating
Coll Coating
9. Metal Coating
*10. Large Appliance Manufacture
11. Magnet Wire Insulation
12. Refinery:
a) Vacuum systems
b) Waste water systems
c) -
90%
Internal Floating
Roof
95X
Vapor Balance
952
851 Control
Overal1
No OrganIcs Allowed
70X
50-80X
BOX
SOX
SOX
Best Modern
Practices
Process unit turn arounds
Denotes ARB Model Rules adopted or In preparation.
90X (Reg 2)
Secondary Seals
(Reg 3)
60X
(Reg 3) Proposed Reg 13
95X
Proposed Reg 13
85X 1f>40 Ib/day
OX If <40 Ib/day
(Reg 3)
Allows 400 Ib/ton
(Reg 3)
20X
(Reg 3) Proposed Reg 17
20-40X
(Reg 3) Proposed Reg 14
and 16
20-SOX
(Reg 3) Proposed Reg 14
20-501
(Reg 3)
Less than SOX
(Reg 3)
Best Modem Practices
Proposed Reg 18
No new regulation needed.
District more restrictive.
No new regulation needed.
District less restrictive.
New regulations needed.
Need to modify Reg. to Include
smaller terminals and consider
spills and leaks.
District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.
District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.
District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.
District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.
District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.
District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.
District less restrictive
(No operations 1n District)
District about the same.
Regulations need clarification.
-------
Table 10.4 COMPARISON OF EPA RACT MEASURES KITH AVAILABLE
CONTROL TECHNOLOGY BY SOURCE CATEGORY IN 1985
EPA RACT MEASURES
1. Service Stations Phase I
2. Fixed Roof Tanks
3. Gasoline Bulk Plants
4. Gasoline Bulk Terminals
5. Metal Degreaslng
6. Cut Back Asphalt
7. Auto Body Painting
8. Can ft Coll Coating Fabric
ft Paper Coating
9. Metal Coating
10. Large Appliance Mfg.
11. Magnet Hire Insul.
12. Refinery
a) Vacuum System
b) Hastewater
c) Process Unit Turnaround
Subtotal
BAAQMO SOURCE CATEGORIES (I )
126. 27. 28 Vehicle Fill ft Tanks
123 Storage ft Blending
(125 Bulk Plants
I
#35 Degreasers
Not In BAAQMD Inventory
!#31 ft 132 Industrial Coating-
Solvent and Water Base
•**#2 Is Valve Leaks 0 7.4 T/D:
Vac. Sym.e 2.5 T/Dj A.P.I, t 3 T/C
Load Racks 9 3 T/D; M1sc. 1 T/D;
13 U/B ft Flares • 2.6 T/D
--
ACTION 1 SOURCE CATEGORIES NOT COVERED BY CURRENT EPA RACT
A. Other Chemical
B. Other Ind/Com
C. Marine Loading
D. Solvent ft Other Tanks
E. Coml/Dom Coatings
F. Dry Cleaners
G. Rubber Fabrication
H. Plastic Fabrication
I. Printing
J. Other Organic Evap.
19
110 Pulp/Paper; 119 Food/Agrl.
124
#29 ft #30
#33 ft #34
#36 ft #37
#38
#39
#40
#41
Subtotal Source Categories Not Covered By Current EPA RACT
TOTAL EPA RACT AND ACTION 1 ACT
REDUCTION ESTIMATES
TONS/DAY fT/D)
EPA
27.0*
14.9
6.8
35.0
20.5**
38.3
19.5 ;
162.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
162 - 27-
135
BAY AREA PLAN
0*
14.9
6.8
3S.O
0**
38.3
19.5
114.5
2.6
4.1
4.6
7.7
21.7
13.0
4.7
23.0
9.0
20.0
110.4
224.9
ESTIMATED REGULATION
DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULE
ADOPTED
1972
1977
1979
1979
1980
1979
1979
1979
~
1982
1982
1980
1981
1980
1980
1981
1982
1980
1981
~
IMPLEMENTED
1975
1978
1980
1981
1983
1983-5
1961-2
1982
—
1983
1983
1982
1982
1982-3
1982
1983
1984
1982
1983
—
ro
co
* Service Station Phase I Control was completed In the Bay Area prior to EPA guidance. It Mas not Included In
Action 1 emission reduction estimates.
** Cut back asphalt was not Included In emission Inventory and no credit was taken In Action 1. The emission
reduction will occur when a new district regulation Is Implemented.
*** A.P.I, separators; U/B - upset/breakdown
-------
REFERENCE
10.1 Leong, E. Y., et al, "A Methodology for Analyzing Alternative
Oxidant Control Strategies," presented at the 71st Annual Meeting
of the Air Pollution Control Association, Houston, June, 1978.
10-24
-------
Chapter 11
THE CONTINUING PLANNING PROCESS
The draft 1979 air quality plan for the San Francisco Bay Area
contains provisions for continuing planning to ensure that the control
programs Included In the plan are being Implemented. The continuing
planning process Is also necessary to ensure that the Bay Area continues
to comply with the legal requirement for making "reasonable further
progress" toward attainment of air quality standards. The continuing
planning .process established in the Bay Area will provide the
appropriate forum for accomplishing a number of tasks. They may be
categorized as follows:
o Data collection needed to support additional control
programs.
o Air .quality analysis to support additional control programs.
o Control strategy development and assessment of controls for
oxides of nitrogen and its effect on oxidant formation.
o Monitoring implementation of the initial plan to ensure that
reasonable further progress is being made toward attainment
of the oxidant standard.
o Development of a regionwide oxidant plan for review and
adoption in the 1981-1982 time period.
ORGANIZATION FOR CONTINUING PLANNING PROCESS
The institutional organization for the continuing planning process
will rely heavily upon the mechanisms and procedures developed for the
preparation of the initial plan. The ABAG will continue to be the lead
agency for the Bay Area Air Quality continuing planning. The BAAQMD and
the MTC will continue to play key roles in all future planning and
11-1
-------
implementation activities related to the Bay Area Air Quality Plan.
Responsibilities for conducting future planning tasks are assigned in a
joint memorandum of understanding between ABAG, the BAAQMD and the MTC.
The process for both technical and policy evaluation of future planning
work will be similar to the process successfully used in the initial
plan preparation (see discussions in Chapter 2). Key working groups and
their responsibilities for continuing air quality planning in the Bay
Area are summarized below:
o Joint Technical Staff - composed of staff members from ABAG,
MTC, BAAQMD, ARB, EPA, and the California Department of
Transportation (Caltrans). This group is responsible for the
development of alternative control strategies and the
technical assessment of their effectiveness and impacts.
o Modeling Sub-Committee - composed of staff members with
specialized air quality modeling expertise from ABAG, MTC,
BAAQMD, Caltrans, ARB, EPA, and Lawrence Livermore Laboratory
(LLL), Systems Applications, Inc. (SAI), and SRI
International (formerly Stanford Research Institute). This
group is responsible for specification of the air quality
modeling methods to be used, and review of the results
obtained.
o Air Quality Advisory Committee - composed of interested
individuals from private industry, local government staff,
and special interest groups. This committee is the vehicle
by which progress on plan preparation is communicated to
interested individuals and organizations that are not
participating directly in the effort. It provides a formal
and continuous opportunity for such individuals to
communicate concerns and comments on the work being done both
to the staff and to the various policy bodies who will be
reviewing the plan.
o Interagency Management Group - composed of executive staff of
ABAG, MTC, and BAAQMD. This group functions to provide key
administrative and policy guidance to the Joint Technical
Staff and serves as a bridge between technical staff and the
policy review bodies.
o ABAG Regional Planning Committee (RPC)- This committee is
composed of elected representatives of cities and counties in
the Bay Area, and representatives of special and public
interest groups. It functions as the principal policy review
11-2
-------
body in ABAG for plan development, Inheriting the role of
ABAG's Environmental Management Task Force.
o ABAG Executive Board - This group is composed of elected
representatives of cities and counties in the Bay Area, and
functions as the month-to-month governing board for ABAG.
All plans and matters of regional policy produced by ABAG
must receive review and approval by the board.
o Metropolitan Transportation Commission - This group is
composed primarily of elected representatives of cities and
counties in the Bay Area, and functions as the governing
board for MTC. All plans, funding priorities and policies
related to transit and major transportation projects must
receive review and approval by this commission
o BAAQMD Board of Directors - This group is composed of elected
representatives of counties in the Bay Area, and functions as
the governing board for the BAAQMD. The activities and
regulations-of the District must receive approval from this
board.
o ABAG General Assembly - This body includes elected
representatives from each ABAG member city and county of the
Bay Area. Each year, the General Assembly approves the
annual update of the Environmental Management Plan.
•o California Air Resources Board - This body is composed of
individuals appointed by the Governor and has the authority
to set motor vehicle emission standards. It also is
responsible for preparation and submittal of the State
Implementation Plan for California to EPA. In addition, it
can override the authority of local air pollution control
districts such as the Bay Area Air Quality Management
District in regulating emissions from stationary sources.
FUTURE WORK AND RESEARCH NEEDS
The revised staff-recomnended oxidant control plan was approved by
ABAG's General Assembly on January 13, 1979. This locally adopted
oxidant plan is currently being reviewed by the CARB with respect to its
adequacy for adoption as part of State SIP to be submitted to U.S. EPA.
At present, ABAG is preparing an application for Federal funds
authorized under Section 175 of the Act to support the future air
quality planning work. A number of tasks will be pursued to insure that
11-3
-------
the elements of the 1977 oxidant plan are being implemented. ABAG will
be monitoring and evaluating implementation of adopted control programs.
In addition to tasks that follow up on the adopted plan, other
technical tasks are planned in order to address the issues related to
oxidant long-range transport. In particular, the feasibility of
extending the LIRAQ modeling analysis to cover larger areas will be
investigated along with other alternatives. If an appropriate analysis
technique can be developed, the impacts of different levels of NOX
emissions in the Bay Area on oxidant levels in other air basins will be
tested. Once the role of Bay Area NOX emissions on neighboring regions
is identified, appropriate control measures can be developed if
necessary.
More tests will be conducted to determine the sensitivity of peak
oxidant levels to spatially variable controls. For example, the effects
of strategies to control only those emissions that are directly
responsible for the peak oxidant concentrations will be analysed.
Future work is also needed to identify industrial growth increments in
precursor emissions and to implement an industrial siting process. The
need for certain transportation controls, e.g., retrofit devices on
heavy-duty gasoline-powered vehicles, will be reassessed. In response
to the recent change in Federal 1-hr oxidant standard from 0.08 ppm to
0.12 ppm, ABAG is in the process of Devaluating its previously adopted
oxidant control plan to see what changes are appropriate. The continuing
planning process will insure that the oxidant standard will be attained
by the mandated deadline and will continue to be maintained in future
years.
11-4
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA-450/2-79-001b
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Example Control Strategy for Ozone, Volume 2: Case
Study of the San Francisco Bay Region: 1976-1978
5. REPORT DATE
April, 1979
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
OAQPS No. 1.2-121
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
Association of Bay Area Governments
Environmental Quality and Energy Resources Department
Hotel Claremont
Berkeley, California 94705
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-02-3001
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
Association of Bay Area Governments Project Manager:
EPA Project Officer: Andrew Creekmore
Eugene Leong
16. ABSTRACT
This guideline presents information to assist States and local agencies in
preparing ozone control strategies for nonattainment areas. The guidance should
be most useful in preparing 1982 State Implementation Plan revisions.
The guideline covers the following topics: Intergovernmental Cooperation,
Development and Assessment of Air Quality and Emissions Data, Modeling to Related
Air Quality to Emissions, Control Strategy Analysis and Assessment, Plan Adoption,
and the Continuing Planning Process. This volume covers the case study for the
San Francisco Bay Region: 1976-1978.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATI Field/Group
Air Pollution
Atmospheric Contamination Control
Ozone
State implementation
plan control strategy
National ambient air
quality standard
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
JLZIL
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
------- |