v>EPA
           United States
           Environmental Protection
           Agency
          Office of Air Quality
          Planning and Standards
          Research Triangle Park NC 27711
EPA-450/2-79-001b
OAQPS No. 1.2-121
April 1979
           Air
Guidelines Series

Example Control
Strategy for Ozone
Volume 2:
Case Study of the
San Francisco Bay Region:
1976-1978

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                          EPA-450/2-79-001 b

                          OAQPSNo. 1.2-121
Example Control Strategy
           for Ozone
           Volume 2:
      Case  Study of the
San Francisco Bay Region:
           1976-1978
                 by
         Association of Bay Area Governments
              Hotel Claremont
            Berkeley, California 94705
            Contract No. 68-02-3001

         Andrew T.CrMkmoiw, Project Officer
               Prepared for

       U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
          Office of Air, Noise, and Radiation
        Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
       Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

               April 1979

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                                     OAQPS GUIDELINE SERIES

The guideline series of reports is being issued by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) to
provide information to state and local air pollution control agencies; for example, to provide guidance on the
acquisition and processing of air quality data and on the planning and analysis requisite for the maintenance of
air quality. Reports published in this series will be available-as supplies permit-from the Library Services Office
(MD35), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711; or, fora nominal
fee, from the National Technical Information Service. 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
                                Publication No. EPA-450/2-79-001b

                                       (OAQPS No. 1.2-121)
                                               ii

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                           TABLE  OF  CONTENTS



CHAPTER   TITLE                                  ,                  PAGE

          LIST OF FIGURES                                          1v

          LIST OF TABLES                                           vi

          GLOSSARY                                                 ix

   1.     INTRODUCTION                                             1-1

   2.     PUBLIC AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT  AND  INTERGOVERNMENTAL        2-1
          COOPERATION

               Intergovernmental  Coordination                       2-1

               Public Participation                                 2-10

               State and Local  Consultative Process                 2-11

               Local Lead Agency  Designation                        2-13

               Joint Determination of  Responsibilities              2-15

   3.     ORGANIZATION FOR THE  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS                   3-1

               ABAG's Population, Housing, Employment             3-5
               and Land Use Models

               Travel Demand Forecasting System                     3-8

               Emission Inventory Disaggregation Models             3-9

               Livermore Regional  Air Quality Model             3-10
               (LIRAQ)

               Systems Applications                                 3-12
                     i
               References                                          3-16

   4.     THE AIR QUALITY PROBLEM                                  4-1

   5.     COMPILING EMISSIONS INVENTORIES                           5-1

               Major Point Sources                                 5-4

               Airports                                             5-6

               Area Sources                                         5-7

               Motor Vehicles                                       5-13

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CHAPTER   TITLE                                                     PAGE

                   Link Emissions                                  5-17

                   Trip  End Emissions                             5-18

               Baseline Emission Trends                             5-20

               References                                           5-27


   6.      PROJECTING AIR QUALITY                                   6-1

               The  Livermore Regional Air Quality  Model              6-2

               Projecting Air Quality - Modeling Issues              6-4

                   Baseline Projections                            6-4

                   The Model Validation Process                    6-5

                   Specifying  Future  Initial  and              6-6
                   Boundary Conditions

               Emissions Sensitivity Testing                        6-7

   7.      DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE CONTROLS                      7-1

               Existing and Planned Programs                        7-1

                   Stationary Source Emission Controls              7-1

                   Motor Vehicle Emissions Controls                 7-2

                   Transportation Controls                         7-4

                   Land Use  Management/Development              7-4
                   Controls

               Inventory of  Options (or Candidate              7-6
               Control Measures)

               Process for Screening the Options                    7-10

               Options Considered But  Not  Included in              7-11
               the  Plan

   8.      CONTROL  STRATEGY ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT                  8-1

               Determining  the  Range of Emission              8-2
               Reductions Necessary to Meet the  Oxidant
               Standard

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        I
CHAPTER     TITLE                                    .
               Application  of  the  Air  Quality Modeling System         8-3
               Control  Strategy  Effectiveness                         8-4
               Costs  of Proposed Strategies                           8-17
            !
                    Stationary Source  Control Costs                   8-17
                    Mobile  Source  Control  Costs                       8-18
                    Land Use and Transportation  Control Costs         8-19
                    Cost-Effectiveness of AQMP Recommendations        8-20
                    References                                       8-22
   9.      DEVELOPMENT OF STAFF  RECOMMENDED  DRAFT  PLAN                9-1
               Additional Controls on  Existing Sources                9-1
               Management of the Growth of New  Sources               9-5
               and Indirect Sources
               The Staff Recommended Draft Plan                       9-7
  10.      PLAN REVIEW, ADOPTION AND APPROVAL PROCESS                 10-1
               Providing Adequate  Time for  Public               10-3
               Review
               Specific Changes  to the Draft AQMP                     10-5
               Evaluation  of the Public Participation               10-12
               Program
               1977 Clean Air Act  Requirements                        10-19
                    Demonstration  of Reasonable  Further               10-20
                    Progress
                    Implementation of EPA RACT Measures               10-20
                    Demonstration of Legal, Financial               10-21
                    and Manpower Commitments
                    References                                       10-24
  11.      THE CONTINUING PLANNING PROCESS                           11-1
               Organization for  Continuing Planning  Process           11-1
               Future Work  and Research Needs                         11-3
                                i i i

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                           LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1    Relationship of ABAG Policy  Bodies to Joint
             Technical  Staff

Figure 3-1    Overview of AQMP Modeling System

Figure 3-2    The AQMP Modeling System

Figure 3-3    440 Zone System  for Land Use and Transportation
             Modeling of the  San Francisco Bay Region

Figure 3-4    Control Strategy Testing with the AQMP Modeling
             System

Figure 4-1    1970-74 Mean Number of  Days  with Oxidant
             exceeding   .08 ppm

Figure 4-2    Number of Days  in 1975 with Oxidant exceeding
             .08 ppm

Figure 4-3    Trend  of  Average High-Hour  Oxidant
             Concentrations  for Days with  Comparable
             Temperature  and Inversion  Conditions  (April
             through October Photochemical Oxidant  Seasons
             1962-1976)

Figure 5-1    Summary Schematic of  QSOR File Preparation

Figure 5-2    Organization of  Motor Vehicle Emission Codes

Figure 5-3    Flow Chart of Trip-End Emissions Programs

Figure 5-4    Hydrocarbon Emission  Trends

Figure 5-5    Nitrogen Oxides  Emission Trends

Figure 6-1    Baseline Map at  1500  PST for 1985 Emissions and
             July  26,  1973 Meteorology, Showing East-West
             Section Line AA1 and  North-South Section  Line
             BB1

Figure 6-2    Emission  Sensitivity Results  Compared by
             Various Percent  Reductions Along Section AA1 of
             Figure  6-1

Figure 6-3    Emission  Sensitivity Results  Compared by
             Various Percent  Reduction Along Section  BB'  of
             Figure  6-1
PAGE

 2-5


 3-3

 3-4

 3-6


 3-15


 4-2


 4-2


 4-4
 5-3

 5-16

 5-19

 5-22

 5-23

 6-9
 6-10
 6-11
                                 i v

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Figure 6-4



Figure 8-1


Figure 8-2



Figure 8-3



Figure 8-4



Figure 8-5



Figure 8-6



Figure 8-7


Figure 8-6



Figure 9-1
Figure 9-2


Figure 10-1
Plots of Unadjusted  and  Adjusted Regionwide
High Hour  Ozone  as a Function of % Reductions
in 1985  Hydrocarbon Emissions

Control  Strategy Testing with the AQMP Modeling
System

Example  LIRAQ  Results 1985 Control  Strategy
Analysis (Maximum  Technological  Improvements
Only)

Example  LIRAQ  Results 1985 Control  Strategy
Analysis (Comprehensive  Strategy Including
Additional  NOV Controls)
            /\

Example  LIRAQ  Results 1985 Control  Strategy
Analysis (Comprehensive Strategy  Without
Additional  NOX Controls)

Example  LIRAQ  Results 2000 Control  Strategy
Analysis (Baseline Projection  Assuming Slower
Population  Growth Rate)
                  4-
Example  LIRAQ  Results 2000 Control  Strategy
Analysis  (Transportation  and Land  Use
Management  Only)

Example  Results 2000 Control Strategy Analysis
(Maximum Technological Controls Only)

Example LIRAQ Results 2000 Control  Strategy
Analysis  (Comprehensive Strategy Without
Additional  NOX Controls)

Relative Roles of  New Source  Review/Indirect
Source  Review  Programs  and the Comprehensive
Strategy in Achieving and Maintaining  the
Federal  Oxidant  Standard in the San Francisco
Bay Region

Schedule  for Implementation of the Air Quality
Maintenance Plan                     .

Process  for Developing the Plan
PAGE


 6-12



 8-6


 8-9



 8-10



 8-11



 8-12



 8-13



 8-14


 8-15



 9-8
 9-13


 10-4

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                            LIST OF TABLES
Table 5-1     San Francisco Bay Area  Source Inventory:  Four
             Component Breakdown as  in QSOR File Preparation

Table 5-2     Excerpts from Cross-Classification Table Used
             for Spatial  Distribution of  Area  Source
             Emissions

Table 5-3     Summary  List of Nineteen  Series 3 Variables
             Used in Cross-Classification Analysis

Table 5-4     Summary of Baseline Transportation Data Inputs
             to  Motor Vehicle Emissions  Estimation

Table 5-5     Emissions by Major Source Category

Table 5-6     Summary of Baseline Motor Vehicle  Emission
             Projections

Table 7-1     Summary of Existing BAAPCD's Regulations on
             Stationary Source Control for Oxidants

Table 7-2     Summary of Current Transportation  Control
             Measures in the Bay Area

Table 7-3     Summary of Land Development Policies in Effect
             in  the Bay Area, 1975

Table 7-4     Inventory of Air Pollution  Control Measures

Table 8-1     Summary of Control Strategies Tested

Table 8-2     Effectiveness of Alternative Control Strategies

Table 8-3     LIRAQ  Baseline and Comprehensive  Strategy
             Analysis for the North  Bay  (2000)

Table 9-1     Hydrocarbon Emission  Reductions Required to
             Achieve the 0-08  ppm  Photochemical Oxidant
             Standard

Table 9-2     Additional  AQMP  Control Measures for Existing
             Sources and Appropriate Emission Reduction
             Potentials

Table 9-3     Draft Oxidant Plan Recommendations
PAGE

 5-5


 5-8



 5-10


 5-14


 5-21

 5-25


 7-3


 7-5


 7-7


 7-8

 8-5

 8-7

 8-16


 9-2



 9-3



 9-10
                                 VI

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                                                                  PAGE
Table 10-1    Summary of AQMP  Draft Recommendations  and         10-6
             Changes by ABAG's Policy Bodies

Table 10-2    Air Quality Maintenance Plan  Recommendations            10-13

Table 10-3    Comparison of EPA RACT Measures  and BAAQMD             10-22
             Regulations

Table 10-4    Comparison of EPA RACT Measures with Available         10-23
             Control Technology by Source  Category in 1985
                                  vn

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GLOSSARY
     The  definition of  terms and acronyms used  in this report are given
 below:

 ABAG:      Association of Bay Area Governments
 AP-42:     EPA document, Compilation of Air Pollution  Emission Factors
           including supplements
 AQMP:      Air Quality Maintenance Plan
 BAAPCD:    Bay Area Air  Pollution Control  District
 BAAQMD:    Bay Area Air  Quality Management District, formerly the BAAPCD
 Bay Area:  San Francisco Bay Area
 Caltrans:  California Department of Transportation
 CARB/ARB:  California Air Resources Board
 CTG:       Control  Technologies Guidelines
 EMTF:      Environmental Management Task Force
 EMFAC3:    Code name for the mobile emission model developed by CARB
 FHWA:      Federal  Highway Administration
 HDD:       Heavy duty diesel-powered vehicle
 HDG:       Heavy duty gasoline-powered vehicle
 ISR:       Indirect Source Review
 IDA:       Light duty automobile
 LOT:       Light duty truck
 JTS:       Joint Technical Staff
 LIRAQ:     Livermore Regional Air Quality  Model
 LLL:       Livermore Lawrence Laboratory
 MTC:       Metropolitan Transportation Commission
 NSR:       New Source Review
 NOV:       Oxides of Nitrogen
  A
                              IX

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PRB:       Program Review Board

03:         Ozone

QSOR:      Code  name for  the final disaggregated source inventory fi'1e
           which serves as input to the Livermore Air Quality Model

RPC:       Regional Planning Committee

SIP         State Implementation Plan

UTM:       Universal  Transverse Mercator

VMT:       Vehicle Miles Travelled

USGS:      United States Geological Survey

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                            Chapter 1'
                    INTRODUCTION
     The Clean Air Act  Amendments of  1977 continue  the  requirement for
State  Implementation  Plans (SIP)  to be prepared to attain and maintain
national  ambient air quality standards.  For a variety  of  reasons, the
deadlines  for  submittal  of the SIP's and the dates by which the plans
are to demonstrate meeting the various air quality  standards have  been
revised.  Wherever  possible,  SIP's are  to be shown meeting all
applicable standards  no  later than 1982.  For carbon monoxide  and
photochemical oxidants,  under specific conditions,  a five-year extension
to 1987 is  possible.
     An important factor in determining what strategies are needed in an
air quality plan is the  level at which air  quality standards are  set.
Recently,  for  example, the Environmental Protection Agency changed the
photochemical oxidant 0.08 parts per million (ppm)  -  1-hour standard to
an ozone  (03)  0.12 ppm -  1-hour daily standard.  At the time the Bay
Area non-attainment plan was adopted  locally,  the oxidant  standard was
still 0.08  ppm; therefore, the plan was developed to meet this standard.
Although the standard has been changed to 0.12 ppm, the techniques  used
to  develop the  control  strategy  for  the  study  are  still  valid.
Currently, the Bay Area  is re-examining its  adopted  plan to see  what
changes are appropriate.   Other non-attainment areas may  prepare plans
for the new standard.
     These reports have  been prepared to  assist those involved in
preparing non-attainment plans for  use in SIP  submittals.  Specifically,
                              1-1

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the reports  deal with preparing photochemical oxidant or ozone  control
strategy plans.  Depending  on  where a particular region  is  in  the
development  of  its plan(s),  these guidance materials should  be  useful
for the 1982 SIP submittals.
     Volume  I provides general guidance to non-attainment oxidant areas.
This guidance is sufficiently  broad in scope  that all areas experiencing
oxidant problems should find the report to be useful.  Discussions  are
presented on the technical  procedures for analyzing the oxidant  problem
and alternative control  strategies.  The intergovernmental  coordination
and public  involvement required in the planning process  are similarly
described.  A systematic approach to plan development is  given.   This
approach acknowledges the widespread differences experienced  across the
nation  in the  extent and severity  of oxidant air pollution.   Three
different  levels  of  analysis  are proposed depending on regional
availability of  data,  staff and budgetary resources  and overall
schedules for  plan preparation.  These three levels of analysis vary in
the degree of sophistication of  the  models employed for  land use  and
transportation simulation,  emission inventories,  and oxidant
predictions.  They can  be  broadly  characterized  into three groups:
complex,  intermediate and simple models.  The confidence and accuracy of
technical   analysis  should be  proportional  to  the degree of
sophistication of  the  models used and the amount of effort expended in
modeling.  As conclusions and  recommendations derived from  the technical
analysis are often  important and costly, emphasis of  this guideline is
placed  on analyses using complex or intermediate models to  obtain more
accurate results.   The simple  models, e.g., linear rollback,  are
                               1-2

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discussed only for  the purpose of preliminary assessment.
     Volume II documents the results of a planning program  to  develop an
oxidant plan for  the  San Francisco Bay Area during the  period  from 1976
to 1978.   This volume is a detailed case study of the  planning process,
analysis procedures and development of final  plan recommendations.
     Volume  II is  intended  primarily  for  air quality  planners  and/or
technical  personnel.  As other non-attainment  areas embark on  similar
planning programs,  the  recent experiences of  the Bay Area should be
instructive.  The Bay Area efforts  attempted  to maintain an open and
highly visible  process for developing the plan.  At the same time, the
technical  approach  and analytical methodologies were  as  rigorous and
objective as possible given the staff and budgetary resources available
to the program.  Throughout the  plan development as  both process and
products were balanced, lessons were learned for conducting similar work
in the future. The documentation of these lessons learned in  the Bay
Area—what to do and what not to do--is a major purpose  of this report.
                                1-3

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                           Chapter 2
PUBLIC AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND
  INTERGOVERNMENTAL COOPERATION

       For decades  the nine counties surrounding the Bay--San  Francisco,
   San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, Solano, Napa, Sonoma and
   Mann— have been considered by inhabitants and others  as a region.
   Regional  governance has slowly developed for the Bay Area over the past
   two decades, although  the philosophy of home  rule  remains well
   entrenched through legislative provision and long-established local
   practices and understandings.
       Bay Area policymaking is a fragmented mixture of public  and private
   actions.  Within  the public  sector,  it is a combination of Federal,
   State, regional  and local governmental actions.  For local  government,
   it is a mixture of actions by myriad  local agencies—large and small
   counties, large and small cities,  regional special-purpose agencies,
   sub-regional districts,  and  hundreds of small suburban  neighborhood
   "governments" (e.g., fire districts, sewer districts, etc.). No one
   agency provides a dominant voice in regional matters because  the region
   has many single-purpose  agencies with  independent (and for the most part
   uncoordinated) regulatory authority and funding.

   INTERGOVERNMENTAL COORDINATION
       As the regional council of governments, the Association  of Bay Area
   Governments (ABAG)  is owned and operated by the cities and  counties of
   the San  Francisco  Bay  Area.   ABAG is a  voluntary, joint  powers,
   comprehensive regional planning agency.   It was established under the
  Joint  Exercise of Powers Act (Government Code Sections 6500-6513) by the
                             2-1

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counties  and  cities within the San Francisco Bay Region.   ABAG is the

federally  designated  Areawide  Planning Organization  and Areawide

Clearinghouse for this region.


     During  the  fall  of 1975 the Air Resources Board (ARB) organized  a


local  Air Quality Maintenance Plan-Policy  Task Force (AQMP-PTF) for the

San Francisco Bay Region.  This body was composed of elected officials


and representatives of various public and  special interest groups of the


Bay Area.   The AQMP-PTF  was organized to ensure local involvement and


support  in  the development of an implementable  and acceptable air


quality plan  for  inclusion in a revised State  Implementation Plan (SIP).


This basic approach was taken in light of  several unsuccessful attempts


in the early  1970s to implement various State  and Federally proposed air


quality control  strategies.  Local involvement was needed  because many

of  the anticipated impacts of air  pollution control strategies would


affect decisions  on the location, extent,  timing and costs of areawide

growth and development.


     For several  months the  AQMP-PTF met to discuss air quality problems
                      t
and the  work needed to  prepare a plan to alleviate these problems.   A

preliminary  AQMP  work  plan was  prepared in December  1975.  Several

months previously, in  the  spring of 1975,  ABAG was designated as the

regional  water quality planning agency under Section 208 of the Federal


Water Pollution Control Act of 1972.  The primary mandate as the water


quality planning  agency was  development of solutions for the unresolved

environmental problems  within the  region,  with  an emphasis on urban

stormwater runoff.  EPA, ABAG, California  Air Resources Board and the

California  Water Resources Control  Board,  recognized the benefits of

integrating the air and  water quality  planning  efforts.   Such an
                               2-2

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integrated approach would  assure the use of common data bases.   Also, it
was determined  that the public participation and local  involvement
aspects  of the program could  be  best served by a single  program.  In
early  1976,  the task force  established to oversee  the air quality
planning program transferred  its tasks to the 46-member Environmental
Management Task Force (EMTF), the  formal  policy advisory  committee
established  by  ABAG to  oversee the  development of  the integrated
Environmental Management Plan.  This decision, and the subsequent work
to prepare an AQMP for oxidant were very compatible with the forthcoming
requirements and actions to be taken under the 1977 amendments.  The
initial  AQMP  was developed as  part of ABAG's Environmental  Management
Plan, prepared  under the guidance of a 46-member task force.   The EMTF
included 23  local elected officials, representatives of 8  regional
environmental  agencies,  13  special and public  interest groups,  a  State
legislator and a congressman.
     The task force  itself  technically served  an advisory function for
plan development and the  first stage of plan implementation.  As such,
its  responsibilities  included  recommending a  final  plan to each
implementing  agency's policy  board;  the task force  also  described to
these  policy  boards  the  actions  to  be taken  by  other potential
implementing  agencies.
     A number of  other  devices were used to influence the policymaking
process, and  to ensure the representation of a broad  range of views by
various  interests throughout the metropolitan  San Francisco community.
A task  force Public  Participation Committee  provided  a forum for
"citizens-at-large"  perspectives concerning vital issues  raised during
the planning  process.  Still  another group was the Plan Implementation
                               2-3

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Committee,  formed to evaluate the  capabilities of existing governmental

organizations (including planning  process participants) recommended to

have implementating responsibilities.  Within ABAG the following  bodies

had important  roles:

   o Regional  Planning Committee (RPC) - A permanently established
     ABAG committee with  diverse  planning objectives including
     preparation of a comprehensive regional plan.  Regarding  the
     Environmental  Management Plan  and  work of the EMTF,  the
     responsibilities of RPC were to  ensure consistency  among  the
     policies  and actions adopted for environmental  protection
     with other  policies already adopted by ABAG in other planning
     programs—housing, natural  resources, open  space,  economic
     development.

   o ABAG  Executive Board - The  governing body of ABAG, composed
     of elected city and  county  representatives of member
     jurisdictions.  The  Executive Board is  the  legal  entity
     responsible for  receiving contracts, certifying Environmental
     Impact  Reports,  holding public hearings on the Environmental
     Management Plan.  Membership  on  the  Executive Board  is
     establised in  the ABAG By-laws with representation  partially
     weighted by population.  The  Executive Board has 34  voting
     members  with 22  for  cities and 12 members for the counties.

   o ABAG  General  Assembly -  As  the name  implies,  the General
     Assembly is the  complete membership of ABAG  with each city
     and county  being  individually represented.  A majority  of  the
     cities  and a  majority of the counties must  approve  an
     action(s)  before it is enacted by  the General Assembly.   The
     General  Assembly meets at least annually and more  often if
     necessary.
     Figure 2-1  shows  the relationship  of  the various ABAG policy  bodies

 to staff  in the  development of  the  air quality and  environmental

 management plans.
                                2-4

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                   Figure 2-1. Relationship of ABAG
                Policy  Bodies to Joint Techincal Staff
                                ABAG
                          General  Assembly
                                ABAG
                          Executive Board
                               _T
                                ABAG
                     Regional Planning Committee
                                ABAG
                 Environmental Management  Task Force
                  Air Quality Joint Technical Staff
                  ABAG,  BAAPCD, MTC, Caltrans, CARS
     Another way of assuring  participation and coordination  in  the
development of the initial plan  was  through a series of  technical
advisory committees.  An  Assessment Advisory Committee, comprised of
representatives of  many potentially affected private interests,
environmental  interest groups  and the  general  public,  had  the
responsibility of devising  a checklist and procedures for the  systematic
impact  assessment  of the  proposed measures and  strategies.   The
checklist  was  approved  by the EMTF and  used  for all elements of ABAG's
Environmental Management  Program.
     To ensure a sound  technical  approach  offering a rational analysis
of air  quality  problems and proposed  solutions,  an AQMP  Advisory
Committee  was  forme'd.  That committee provided  a sounding board for
discussions  concerning how  various  results  are derived  analytically.
Methodologies,  issues and background  technical information were  also
presented to this group.  The committee's function was crucial  in terms
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of its role  of assuring that a  sound, technically competent assessment
of air  quality  problems had  been  accomplished.   Such information was
                                     •
vital  to the actions being taken  by  policymakers in  seeking solutions to
these problems.
     A responsive  staffing arrangement was necessary to assist the  task
force  in  accomplishing its objective of providing a final  plan product.
To accomplish such an  objective, an interagency technical  staff was
created.   The purpose of the Joint  Technical Staff (JTS)  was  to provide
technical  support  to the policy structure.  The JTS was conceived  as a
mechanism  to effectively guide the  work  contributions  of  each
participating agency  toward the development of a coordinated set of
strategies for  policy  evaluation.   Since several of  the agencies
contributing personnel  to staff have  existing air pollution-related
planning  responsbi 1 ity,  a  basic task of the JTS was  to ensure a
sufficiently broad non-attainment planning program to complement (rather
than duplicate)  the efforts.
     The JTS was  an interdisciplinary team of scientists,  engineers and
planners.   The staff arrangements were created  informally and  later
recognized  in a  memorandum of  understanding, and other  forms of
interagency agreements.   Personnel  from  the  Bay Area  Air Pollution
Control District,  the  Metropolitan  Transportation Commission and  ABAG
formed the core  of the JTS.  Other  participants included representatives
from the Cal trans, ARB, and EPA Region  IX.
     The JTS coordinated technical  tasks among agencies participating in
the planning process.  It also  guided the  emission inventory development
effort and a comprehensive air  quality  analysis  to determine appropriate
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levels of  control necessary to  attain federal  standards.  The team  also
evaluated  specific strategies for  accomplishing those  levels.
     In addition to program coordination, the JTS  had  the responsibility
for plan  development documentation.   All background materials--Issue
papers, briefs  and technical memoranda  pertinent to  the  revised
SIP—were prepared by, or channeled through this particular group.  It
was also responsible for integrating all  relevant technical materials
into final plan  product.
     The interagency staff effort  was supported through  several direct
and indirect funding arrangements  from  all levels  of government.  In
addition to direct financing from  state and federal  sources, a number of
local  governments provided "in-kind" services by  way  of personnel,
office  space,  supplies,  equipment,  etc.  While  these  multifunding
arrangements made it difficult to manage  the SIP revision  effort, they
were beneficial  in that all participating agencies were required to make
more than  a philosophical commitment to the planning program.
     The JTS met as needed to  schedule  work,  review assignments and
overall  progress and to  discuss other programmatic  issues.  On the
average, the JTS met every other week for about two hours.  Two  other
staff  groups were formed to facilitate certain aspects of the technical
work and to provide the necessary interface  of the staff  work to the
policy bodies.  These groups  were: 1)  the interagency management
committee, and 2) the modeling  committee.
     The  interagency  management committee  was a three-member  group
comprised  of senior management  from ABAG, BAAPCD and MTC.  Specifically,
it was the Associate Executive Director of  ABAG,  the Deputy Air
Pollution  Control Officer of BAAPCD, and  the Deputy Executive  Director
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of MTC.   The  interagency management  committee met on an ad  hoc basis for
several  purposes.  First,  they met to provide  overall  guidance and
direction to  the JTS, especially regarding each agency's policies.   The
interagency management  committee acted as  a  quasi-policy  body
anticipating what the reactions would be  of  the  respective  policy
boards.   The committee made  suggestions to the JTS on work tasks and
discussed appropriate strategies for timing,  content and presentations
of  the  technical  analysis.    In  addition  to facilitating  the  work
assignments and  assuring the necessary priorities and staff commitments
were  made for completing  the work  in a timely manner, the management
committee also ensured that a consistent position was taken by the  three
agencies in the  joint planning  effort.
     The modeling  sub-committee was  established to ensure objectivity
and  credibility  to the air quality modeling tasks.  In particular, it
was set up to ensure a broad participation,  especially  from reviewing
agencies, on the technical assumptions and approaches being  used for
modeling work.  The  various organizations which served  on  the  modeling
sub-committee were:
        o ABAG
        o BAAPCD
        o MTC
        o Caltrans
        o CARB (Modeling Group-Sacramento)
        0 EPA - IX  (Modeling Group)
        o Lawrence  Livermore Laboratory  (LLL)
        o Systems Applications, Inc.  (SAI)
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     The latter two organizations, ILL and SAI, have both been  active  in
model development and  applications.  They provided invaluable  assistance
on the appropriate use of  the models, important technical  assumptions
and interpretation of  results.
     The modeling sub-committee also met on an ad hoc basis,  typically
no more than once per month, to  review a variety of modeling  tasks.   An
important function of  the  modeling sub-committee was to  ensure  openness
to many work  tasks which might  later be criticized  because of  some
assumption made.  Whenever possible, the group attempted to  arrive at a
consensus on the modeling  approach, assumption and for interpretation  of
result.  At each step, limitations of the work and uncertainty were
explicitly discussed and  in many  cases documented.
     Another important body for the air quality plan development was the
Program Review  Board (PRB).  The  PRB was established to provide the
necessary Federal and  State guidance to the  environmental management
plan development.   It included representatives from  the  following
agencies:
        o  U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency - IX
        o  State Water  Resources Control Board
        o  State Air Resources Board
        o  State Sol id  Waste Management Board
        o  State Office of Planning and Research
        o  San Francisco Regional Water Quality Control  Board
     Another  function of  the PRB was to provide a forum for  discussion
of integrated  environmental management issues.  Because the Federal and
State  programs are  organized according to separate media (i.e.,  air,
water,  solid waste)  and the ABAG approach was integrated  environmental
planning,  it  was  necessary to meet regularly with the Federal  and  State
                                2-9

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review agencies  to receive  consistent guidance.   This  body was
frequently  as informative to the  separate agencies  for  program updates
as it was  to  ABAG for policy guidance.

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION
     A variety of approaches and techniques were used to keep  the public
informed  of  the program's progress.   Written materials were prepared for
different audiences.  For example,  press  releases were available  for the
TV,  radio and newspaper  media covering the  environmental  management
program and  summaries of the technical materials for the public were
mass  produced for widespread distribution.   Technical and detailed
reports were available in limited quantities and served  primarily as
background materials for the advisory committees or as technical  support
documentation. Several  mailing lists were  maintained  for  receiving
various publications as well as meeting notices.
     Another  method  for  distributing  the air  quality  and  other
environmental management materials was in  local  libraries.   A  dozen
libraries throughout the region cooperated as depository  libraries for
all  the  ABAG environmental  materials.  This mechanism provided  ready
access  to the entire public of many backup  documents  and special
reports.   The libraries also served as convenient locations  to have the
draft Environmental Impact Report on file for inspection.
      In  addition  to the written materials, many presentations were made
to many different  groups and organizations.  A partial listing of these
types of groups is  given below:

        o Environmental (e.g., Sierra Club, Lung Association)
                               2-10

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        o Business (e.g., Bay  Area Council)
        o Industry (e.g., Peninsula Manufacturers  Association, Bay
          Area League of Industrial Associations)
        o Civic  (e.g., League  of Women Voters, Walnut Creek
          Chamber of Commerce)
        o Professional  (e.g.,  Air Pollution Control Association,
          American Society of  Civil Engineers)
        o Governmental  (e.g.,  city  councils, county  board of
          supervisors' meetings,  special districts)

     Over the two year period,  hundreds of small and  large community  and
other  special  meetings were  held to describe progress on developing an
air quality, water quality and solid waste management  plan.  When  the
draft  plan was  released  in  December, 1977,  hundreds of more meetings
were  held  to  describe  the  plan, why it  was prepared  and the
recommendations.   ABAG conducted  an  extensive public  participation
program  to keep the public  informed  of important (and frequently
controversial)  environmental  decisions facing the region, including
those for air quality.

STATE AND LOCAL CONSULTATIVE PROCESS
     In California, the Air Resources Board  (ARB)  is the state  agency
responsible for meeting all requirements of Federal  law relating to  air
pollution control.  The ARB is obligated  to initiate  a "satisfactory
process of consultation with local governments" pursuant to recent Clean
Air Act Amendments.
     For purposes of  consultation, the  ARB's participation in local
planning  takes  place  at both  a policy and technical  level.  Policy
                                2-11

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involvement  includes determining jointly with local elected  officials
the  intergovernmental  distribution of planning responsibilities,
providing  interpretation of State policy requirements and monitoring  the
local  policy-making  process.   At the technical  level,  ARB staff
participates  in  the  development  of  planning assumptions  and
considerations,  familiarizing themselves  with  such factors,  and
facilitating plan review.
     In California, the ARB also  assumes a primarily  supportive role to
local  non-attainment planning.   However,  by virtue  of its  direct
responsibility for vehicle  emission controls,  the ARB reserves  some
substantive  planning responsibilities  for itself.   As  a  partner in  the
planning  process,  the ARB has  committed itself to actively participate
in the technical planning process,  as well as  to  consider proposed
measures that will  require State action.
     By direct  involvement in the local process,  the ARB  has  also
 improved  its efforts to meet state/local  coordination requirements.   In
addition  to  traditional  devices  such as requiring  periodic written
 progress  reports from the local planning program,  the ARB keeps abreast
of the local effort by having participating staff located  in the region.
 Both functions are carried  out  by ARB through interdisciplinary basin
teams assigned to each planning  process being conducted  in the state.
     The  U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency  has maintained an active
role in the  San Francisco Bay Area.  Its involvement  primarily consists
of  providing interpretation  of  Federal  policies  for local planning
programs.   Other functions include  technical  and/or financial assistance
to  local  governments for plan  development.   Of course  the Federal  role
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will  vary from  region to region  and state to state.   Some non-attainment
areas may  prefer to have EPA take a less active posture.  EPA staff may
become more involved in technical  and/or policymaking aspects of  the
local  plan  development than they have in other areas.   The extent of EPA
involvement will depend both upon the localities'  desire to have Federal
advice  and the particular  regional EPA offices'  capacity or desire to
participate.
     By  January 1978,  the San Francisco  Bay Area,  through its  air
quality maintenance planning  efforts,  had  a wel 1 - devel oped
organizational structure  for  its  SIP revision planning process.  Its
specific approach, however, may  not be workable in  other regions of  the
country, particularly where other levels of government are more active
in planning to  resolve local problems.  In  such  areas  the state  may
assume  major portions  of the technical  analysis.   If this is  the
situation,  a negotiation process should be created  between the state and
local  participants—as envisioned by the 1977 amendments.  It should be
flexibly structured to permit adequate expression of local concerns  and
considerations  during the planning process.

LOCAL LEAD  AGENCY DESIGNATION
     Section 174(a) of the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments requires that,
where possible, the implementation plan for  a  basin be prepared  by an
organization of  local elected  officials designated by agreement of the
local  governments in an  affected  area.  To  initiate  the designation
process in California,  the Air  Resources  Board  in  1978 identified
non-attainment areas  throughout the  state, and  notified  local
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governments  within them of the need to develop  non-attainment plans.   It
also  informed them that  each non-attainment plan was to be developed
through a cooperative effort involving both  state and local governments.
The first step of the process was the designation of a local lead agency
to direct plan preparation.
     The  San  Francisco region's  air basin  covers  six counties  and
portions of  three others.  It was designated a  non-attainment area,  and
local  governments were  notified of  the  need to develop a cooperative
framework for non-attainment planning.  Three  organizations of  local
elected officials, the Association of Bay  Area Governments (ABAC),  the
Bay Area Air Pollution Control District (BAAPCD) and  the Metropolitan
Transportation  Commission (MTC)  were potentially  capable of  being
designated the local  lead agency.   MTC is the metropolitan planning
organization  designated  to conduct transportation planning for the Bay
Area under Federal and State transportation  legislation.  The BAAPCD is
the  regulatory air pollution control agency  for the San Francisco Bay
region, and  ABAG  is a regional council of governments  that had nearly
completed its responsibility for  directing  the Bay Area air quality
maintenance  planning process as required by  Federal legislation of 1970.
All three agencies cover the designated non-attainment area.
     The 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments indicate a preference that  the
local  lead  agency be the  air quality maintenance planning organization,
the transportation planning organization or  the organization with both
responsibilities.  In  coordinating  the  preparation of an air quality
maintenance  plan, ABAG had already established  a successful interagency
organizational framework for air quality planning in the Bay Area.   This
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experience provided  the justification for ABAG to  request lead  agency
designation by ARB  for  the San Francisco region's  SIP  revision effort.
The BAAPCD also submitted a request  for  designation.   However,  in
contrast with the ABAG bid, the BAAPCD requested a  joint designation of
ABAG,  MTC, and itself.
     To  determine the most appropriate arrangement, ARB staff consulted
local  governments and also  discussed the alternatives with  the staffs of
all three agencies.   As a result, the executive officers of the agencies
met to determine how they might  work together to undertake the  SIP
revision planning  effort.  The discussions resulted in a statement of
principles whereby  specific responsibilities for each  of the  three
agencies were defined for cooperatively undertaking  the  planning effort.
Such responsibilities were  formally documented in a  joint Memorandum of
Understanding early in  the non-attainment  planning process.  According
to the statement of  principles, ABAG was to be the  lead agency  and to
have principal responsibility for overall  plan coordination.  The agency
was to provide the opportunity for MTC and BAAPCD  to make significant
contributions to plan  development  through policy input  and technical
support.  The BAAPCD, MTC and ABAG approved  the statement of principles
and subsequently entered into a three-party  Memorandum  of  Understanding
to conduct air quality  planning cooperatively.  Based upon  the
statement, the Air  Resources Board certified the ABAG as the local lead
agency for non-attainment planning in the Bay Area.

JOINT  DETERMINATION  OF RESPONSIBILITIES
    Many responsibilities originally to be determined  jointly  by  the
State  and local elected officials in the  Bay Area were left for local
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resolution  via  the  joint Memorandum  of  Understanding.   However,
additional  roles  and responsibilities were generally defined by the
state in  the following manner:  ABAG had the principal  responsibility
for  overall plan  development.  Each  agency  was to contribute to plan
development  through participation  in an interagency  joint technical
staff  arrangement.   Cities  and counties were responsible for assessing
their respective general  plans  and revising them  as appropriate to
assure conformity with  the revised SIP.  Finally,  the state  is to
maintain  responsibility for oversight, liaison with other non-attainment
planning efforts in  California,  state policy  interpretation  as it
relates to non-attainment planning, consideration  of measures requiring
state action,  and final  plan submission to the U.S.  Environmental
Protection Agency.
     As  lead  agency,  ABAG also has the  responsibility of providing
public and  local  policy  involvement.  Such involvement means  the
development  of a plan for participation by  local citizens throughout the
Bay  Area.  It  also requires the creation of a  policy-making mechanism
sufficiently  representative of the broad diversity of viewpoints  needed
to determine a realistic course of action toward meeting prescribed air
quality  standards.  The  distribution  of  planning responsibilities is
arrived at largely through negotiations between agencies.
     With regard  to ABAG, MTC and  BAAPCD the allocation of such
responsibilities are predetermined somewhat by the working relationships
established between the  agencies during  their collaborative effort in
developing an  air quality maintenance plan for the  Bay Area.  During
that effort,  the BAAPCD  assumed lead responsibility  for  developing
baseline  emission inventories,  air  quality modeling projections, and
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evaluating  stationary source control options.   The MTC  performed
baseline  transportation system forecasts  and evaluated  transportation
controls.  Finally, ABAG developed the population, employment,  and  land
use projections,  which formed the  basis  of  both the BAAPCD and MTC
projections.  These assigned areas  of responsibility were  not firmly
established and  could be changed to  suit future planning  efforts and
goal s.
                              2-17

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                         Chapter 3

              ORGANIZATION FOR

        THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


    Analysis of alternative oxidant control  strategies is a complex

task,  particularly when a grid-based photochemical model  is the primary

analytical  tool.  To quantitatively  handle  spatial and temporal

variations  in emissions under both existing  and projected future

conditions,  as well  as  to simulate the effects  of a wide variety of

control strategies, a system of computer-based models was  assembled.

    In the  plan development sequence  from  analysis to  policy

recommendations, the technical system was  used to provide quantitative

information  in four critical areas:
     1)   The Baseline Projection - Both short range (1985)*  and
         Tong range  (2000)* estimates of oxidant air quality were
         made  using a baseline projection  that assumed  the
         continuation  of plausible  regional growth trends,
         current  local development  policies, and existing or
         scheduled technological  control regulations.   By
         comparing  the results of  this  projection with  the
         Federal oxidant standard,  the need for additional
         controls were determined;

     2)   Emissions Sensitivity Analysis - The sensitivity of
         projected  future air quality to changes  in hydrocarbon
         and NOx  emission levels was  tested to determine  the
         approximate degree of emission reductions which would be
         necessary to meet the air quality standard (expressed in
         terms of tons of pollutants per day);

     3)   Effectiveness of Alternative Control Strategies  - A
         broad spectrum of  land  use, transportation,  and
         technological control alternatives  was tested  for
         effectiveness in improving future air quality;
*It should be  pointed out that attainment dates mandated by the Clean
Air Act Amendments of 1977 are 1982  and 1987.  1985 and  2000 were
selected for baseline projections in the study before the passage of the
1977 amendments.  The recently revised AQMP  for  the San  Francisco Bay
Area has interpolated the results of 1985 projections to 1982.
                              3-1

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     4)   Assessment of Alternative Control Strategies - The
         assessment of  the air quality  strategies tested  involved
         the identification, and quantification  where  possible,
         of  the potential  impacts in four general  areas  of
         interest:  environmental, financial/institutional, social
         and economic.
     Models from four agencies—ABAG, MTC,  BAAPCD, and LLL--made  up  the

technical modeling system.  The models  were coordinated  in terms of

their inputs and outputs,  data  bases and consistency  of  assumptions.

The modeling system was organized into four groups of models  as  shown in

Figure 3-1:


       o Population, employment, housing, and land  use models
         maintained by ABAG (3-1);

       o Travel demand models maintained by MTC (3-2, 3-3);

       o Emission  inventory disaggregation models maintained by
         BAAPCD and ABAG (3-4)  (see  Chapter 5);

       o Livermore  Regional Air Quality Model  (LIRAQ)  maintained
         by BAAPCD  and ILL (3-2).


     Figure 3-2 is a  more detailed  representation  of the  system

components.

     The models first projected and  distributed a number of variables in

space and time:   population,  employment,  housing, land use,  and

transportation.  These variables were used to estimate  emissions by the

major source  categories.   The Livermore Regional Air  Quality Model

(LIRAQ), which is  a grid-based  photochemical  diffusion model,  then

combined these  emissions along with information about the Bay Region's

meteorology  and  topography to generate  estimates of regional  air

pollution concentrations for  the  base year  (1975),  the  short  term

(1985), and the long-term  (2000).
                                 3-2

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    Figure 3-1	
    OVERVIEW OF AQMP MODELING SYSTEM
     THE AQMP MODELING SYSTEM
              POPULATION,
              EMPLOYMENT,
              & LAND USE
              PROJECTION
              MODELS
TRAVEL
DEMAND
MODELS
STATIONARY
& MOBILE
SOURCE
EMISSIONS
INVENTORY
MODELS
                        LIRAQ
                        AIR
                        QUALITY
                        MODEL
                                                                                       REGIONAL
                                                                                      fc. AIR
                                                                                       POLLUTION
                                                                                       CONCENTRATIONS
CO

OJ
                           ABAG
                           LOCAL
                       DEVELOPMENT
                          POLICY
                          SURVEY
                                    INITIAL
                                 & BOUNDARY
                                  POLLUTANT
                                 CONCENTRA-
                                    TIONS
                                 METEOROLOGY
                                      &
                                  TOPOGRAPHY
EMISSION
 RATES
REGIONAL
GROWTH
TRANSPORTATION
   NETWORK
   PRESENT &
    FUTURE
                                             BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS

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Figure 3-2	
THE AQMP  MODELING SYSTEM
                          POPULATION,
                          HOUSING.
                          EMPLOYMENT.
                          AND LAND
                          USE MODELS
                                              DISTRIBUTION
                                            OF POPULATION.
                                               HOUSING,
                                             EMPLOYMENT
                                               LAND USE
TRAVEL
DEMAND
MODELS
TRIP
GENERATION
&
DISTRIBUTION
MODEL


MODAL
CHOICE
MODEL
A
                                                                                     NS>
                                                                                fPORTATION
                                                                               ^CONTROL PLANj
                                                                                   POLICY
                                                                                   ASSUMP-
                                                                                   TIONS^
   NOTE:
    DOTTED LINES INDICATE WHERE OUTPUTS HERE USED AS GUIDES
    FOR ADJUSTING INPUTS FROM OTHER SOURCES
   EMISSION
   INVENTORY
   DISAGGREGA
   TION
   MODELS
LIRAQ
AIR
QUALITY
MODEL
                                                                                                                             NFORMATI
                                                                                                                            ABOUT KNOWN
                                                                                                                            POINT SOURC
                                                                                                                             EMITTERS
                                                                                  REGIONAL
                                                                                    AIR
                                                                                  POLLUTION
                                                                                   CONCEN-
                                                                                  TRATIONS
  MOBILE
EMISSIONS
 FACTORS
                                                                                                                                                         INITIAL
                                                                                                                                                       ft BOUNDARY
                                                                                                                                                        POLLUTANT
                                                                                                                                                       CONCENTRATIONS
                                                                                 METEOROLOGY
                                                                                     ft
                                                                                 TOPOGRAPHY
                                         AIRCRAFT
                                         EMISSIONS
                                         FACTORS

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     Given  the wide variety of human activities  that give rise  to  air
pollution,  any projection of future air quality must account for changes
in these activities as well  as  changes in  the  technology  of  air
pollution control.

ABAC'S POPULATION, HOUSING, EMPLOYMENT AND LAND USE  MODELS
     The process  of determining  present and future hydrocarbon and NO
                                                                    /\
(oxides of  nitrogen) emissions begins with the distribution and size of
urban activities.  The ABAG models provide a set of  population, housing,
employment, and  land use projections for the nine county San Francisco
Bay  Region.   The projections are made from 1975  to  2000 in five-year
intervals.   Additionally, they are spatially  allocated to a system of
440  subregional zones  which cover the region,  as  shown in Figure 3-3.
Each zone  is  composed of one or more census tracts.
     As shown in  Figure 3-2, the  ABAG projection system is comprised of
four major  models:

       o Regional demographic  model  -  projects   regional
        population, households, and labor force;
       o Regional econometric model - projects regional basic and
        local serving employment;
       o Basic employment  model (BEMOD)  -  allocates basic
        employment to 440 zones;
       o Projective land use model (PLUM) - allocates  population,
        households, and local serving employment to 440 zones.

     The regional  demographic and  econometric models were first operated
to produce  regional  projections, or control  totals.  These control
totals were then allocated to  the 440 zones  using  BEMOD and PLUM.
Initially,  the regional  assumptions were  varied to yield a  range of
                                 3-5

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          Figure 3-3
    440 ZONE SYSTEM FOR
LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION
      MODELING OF THE
  SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION
                                                      \
                            3-6

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projections; later, the subregional land use assumptions were modified
to yield different distributional patterns.
     At the regional level,  the  demographic model  combined assumptions
regarding fertility, mortality,  migration, household  headship, and labor
force participation to produce projections of population, households and
labor  force.   The econometric model  combined assumptions about the
regional  industrial structure and projections  of  national industrial
growth  to produce projections of employment for fourteen basic and four
local-serving  employment  categories.  Several  iterations of the  two
regional models were  required in order  to balance the labor  force
projections from the demographic model with the  employment projections
from the econometric model.
     The regional projections were then allocated to the subregional
zones.   BEMOD  first allocates the fourteen basic employment projections.
This allocation was  based  on  the location of existing industry, an
inventory of available  land for  industrial  development, and
characteristics of the land  which influence its  attractiveness such as
services and  accessibility.   PLUM  then combined this distribution of
basic employment along  with the regional  control  totals to allocate
population, households, and  local-serving employment  to  zones.
     The major controlling assumptions for  the  subregional allocation
were provided through a 1976 survey of local land development policies.
The cities, counties, and special districts in the region were surveyed
to determine  their current policy  instruments  in force—i.e., their
legal,  financial,  and administrative  means — for  encouraging or
restricting development.  These  same policies were subsequently modified
to test a "compact growth" land  use management strategy.
                                 3-7

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     The resultant distribution of population,  households, employment

and  related land use were  supplied to the travel  demand and emission

inventory models.



THE TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING SYSTEM

     The travel  demand forecasting models,  maintained and operated by

the  Metropolitan Transportation  Commission (MTC) provided two key

outputs for air  quality evaluation:  a trip  table indicating  the number

of daily trips originating and ending in  each  440 zone,  and  a  coded

highway network  indicating traffic volumes  and average  speeds on each

highway segment  in the network.  Primary  inputs to these models included

the distribution of  urban activities from the ABAG projection system;

base  year travel patterns, present and future transportation networks

and transportation control plan assumptions.  The trip ends and highway

link  assignments are used  by the emission  inventory disaggregation

models to generate mobile source emissions.  Additionally, MTC  performs

regional airport planning which was used  to  estimate airport  emissions.

     The MTC system  has four major models which are common among  travel

demand models:

       o Trip Generation Model - Trip generation is the  process of
          relating a number  of trip  origins  and  destinations to
         characteristics of  the population and land use.  Based on
          the population, housing, employment, income and land  use
         characteristics of  the various zones within  the region,
          the trip generation model  specifies the number of  daily
         trips beginning and ending in each zone.

       o Trip Distribution  Model - Trip distribution is  the
          process by which  trips originating in  each  zone  are
         distributed to the 440 zones in  the region (including  the
          zone  of origin).   Primary  factors influencing  the
         distribution are  the growth  of  land use and urban
          activities within  particular  zones and the transit  and
         highway accessibilities among the zones.
                                 3-8

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       o Modal Choice Model  - The proportion  of  total daily trips
        that would be made as  auto  driver; auto passenger,  and
        transit rider are  determined by the  modal  choice model.
        This model incorporates  the behavioral  characteristics of
        the trip makers in  terms of their responses to time  and
        monetary costs associated with each  trip.  These costs
        are estimated for  each alternative network depending  upon
        the  highway  and transit  facilities  and services
        specified.

       o Network  Assignment Model -  Network  assignment is  the
        process  of routing trips to specific highway and transit
        links.   This model  allocates  the  trips  to  the
        pre-specified highway  and transit  networks to determine
        specific volumes and transit ridership  in specific areas.
EMISSION  INVENTORY DISAGGREGATION MODELS

     The  Bay Area Air Pollution  Control District  (BAAPCD)  and ABAG

collaborated  to  develop the emission inventory disaggregation models.

The emission categories have  been grouped into  four major categories for

input to  LIRAQ-stationary  point, area, mobile, and airport emissions.

The models are described  below (see Reference 3-4 for  a  more  detailed

description of emission inventory procedures):


      o  Stationary Point and Area Source Emissions - Stationary
         sources are divided  into point and area source categories
         as a means of reducing the effort required to account  for
         all  of  the individual sources.  Those sources which emit
         a relatively large amount of pollutants are accounted  for
         individually and are referred to as major point sources.
         Emissions from the more numerous smaller emitters  are
         estimated in a  collective  fashion for an entire source
         type, such as domestic space heaters.

         The  basic procedure for  projecting  future emissions is
         the  same for both  stationary point and area  source
         categories.  The growth  or decline  of activity  for a
         given source category is,  in most cases,  assumed  to be
         related  proportionally to changes in one or more of  the
         variables in the ABAG projections.  For example, chemical
         processing emissions are assumed proportional  to
         employment in the chemical  processing  industry,  while
         domestic  fuel  combustion  emissions are  assumed
                                3-9

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        proportional to population.   In  addition to the basic
        assumption of  proportionality,  changes  in the emission
        rate per  unit of activity for a given  source category may
        be  superimposed  to  account for  improvements in control
        technology or changes in the type  of fuel  used.

      o Motor Vehicle Emissions - Vehicular activity data from
        the MTC  travel demand modeling  system  is divided  into
        five basic categories:

             - auto trip-making activity by  the 440 zones
             - auto travel by link
             - gasoline truck travel by link
             - diesel truck travel by link
             - motorcycle  travel by link

        This division is  required  because  each  of the vehicle
        types has different  sets  of emissions,  vehicle
        population, and age distribution data.  In the particular
        case  of automobiles,  an  additional category of
        trip-related emissions (cold  start,  hot start and hot
        soak)  has  been included  so that separate spatial and
        temporal  accounting of trip-end related emissions may be
        made.

      o Aircraft Emissions  - Three  general categories  for
        aircraft (commercial carriers,  military, and general
        aviation) were established based  on availability of
        aircraft activity data.   Base year commercial carrier
        emissions were estimated  using  comprehensive  flight
        schedules for each airport in the  region.  Emissions  from
        military  operations were based on  fuel usage data, while
        general  aviation  emissions  were estimated based on
        selected individual  airport  records.   Future year
        emissions were based primarily on MTC's Regional Airport
        Study.
LIVERMORE REGIONAL AIR QUALITY  MODEL (LIRAQ)

     The set of computer codes, which together comprise  the  Livermore

Regional  Air  Quality (LIRAQ) model,  have  been developed as an

operational  tool to assist in tasks such as assessing the compliance of

present  air  quality with Federal  ambient air  quality  standards,

evaluating  the impact on regional air quality of various land  use

alternatives,  and predicting the  effect on regional  air quality of

various emission control strategies.
                               3-10

-------
     The LIRAQ model attempts to treat most of the important  factors
that determine  regional  air  quality as a  function of time  (3-5).  The
San Francisco Bay Area is characterized by both its complex  topography
and its changing meteorology.  The  region has quite intricate geographic
features, including numerous ridges,  hills,  valleys, the Pacific  Ocean,
a central  bay  and major  inland flats.   Meteorological  systems formed
over the Pacific Ocean are influenced by the complex Bay Area topography
to create complicated, temporally and spatially varying wind  fields, and
inversion base heights.  The model  treats both the complex  topography
and  changing meteorology on one of the several available grid scales (1
km or greater) from which the user  may choose to study a particular air
quality problem.  The model does not attempt to forecast tomorrow's air
quality, because  that would require the  capability  to forecast the
regional  meteorology,  a  formidable problem  in  itself.   Instead, in
LIRAQ,  the meteorology  (wind speed  and direction, atmospheric
transmi ssivi ty,  and mixing  depth)  must be specified, either at
measurement stations or by coordinates.  Typically, this involves use of
real meteorological  situations (based on sets of previously acquired
meteorological  observations)  that  may be  expected  to  be  similar to
future weather patterns.
     The simulation of photochemical  air quality is based on a  51-step
reaction set.   In addition,  secondary species (those created  through
chemical transformation processes  in the atmosphere)  including ozone
(0  ),  nitrogen  dioxide (NO )  and  others must be and are treated by the
  O                        £>
LIRAQ model.
     Because of the  complex and non-uniform characteristics of  the Bay
Area (and to some extent of every region) and because a regional  pattern
                                 3-11

-------
is needed  instead of a measure of air  quality at a specific point,  the
mathematical  approach that has been  used is based on the  establishment
of a fixed grid  in the two horizontal  dimensions.  Because  the  depth of
air  through  which pollutants  mix  is highly variable in space  and  time
and  in  addition may intersect topography, the  model  has had  to be
limited to treatment of a single layer  in the vertical.  The  height of
this layer, however, may vary in space and time.
     The  LIRAQ  model  is thus  capable of simulating the time-and-space
varying concentrations  of non-reactive  and  reactive pollutants on a
regional basis  using prescribed meteorology and source emissions.

SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS
     The  enormous  number of variables  potentially  affecting future
oxidant levels  in a major metropolitan area  such as  the San  Francisco
Bay  Region is one reason  to use a  computer-based forecasting system.
Such an approach has  two  principal   advantages:   1)  it  provides a
systematic structure for organizing  and accounting for a  large  number of
variables; and  2) the system allows  flexibility to test many alternative
control strategies.
     However, it was recognized that the  models have certain limitations
and  were only partial  representations of urban phenomena.   To  maintain
consistency of assumptions and data  bases  and  to  oversee  model
development and the interpretation  of  results, two technical  advisory
committees were used—the  AQMP and  Projections Technical Advisory
Committee.  These committees met regularly  over a two-year  period to
review, coordinate  and  guide  the  technical  work leading  to  the staff
prepared  policy recommendations.
                                 3-12

-------
     The models were controlled by various assumptions.   A set  of
baseline assumptions were  first specified for problem Identification and
as a starting  point for  testing alternative  strategies.  These
assumptions are generalized  1n Figure 3-1. They begin with the regional
growth  assumptions regarding fertility, mortality,  migration, the
regional industrial structure,  and the region's share of  national
industrial  growth.  At the subregional  level, the major assumptions
affecting  the  distribution  of urban activities were supplied  through a
1976 local  development policy survey that identified the current  policy
instruments  in force--i.e., the  legal,  financial, and administrative
means—for  encouraging or  restricting development.  Other information
affecting  the  subregional distribution  included an inventory of vacant
industrial  lands and transit  and highway  facilities and services.
     The travel demand models used the distribution of urban activities
along with  transportation  network system  descriptions for the 1975  base
and  future years.   The  future year  assumptions were provided by MTC
staff through interpretation  of the MTC regional transportation plan.
     The emission  inventory  disaggregation  models combined the
distribution of  urban activities and  travel patterns along  with
assumptions  about current  and  future  technological  controls.   The
baseline assumptions included only  technological  controls either
currently in force or legally mandated.
     Finally, the LIRAQ model  used  the emissions estimates,  along  with
assumptions  about  meteorology and topography and initial and boundary
pollutants  concentrations.  The specification of  initial and  boundary
conditions for future year  simulations  was  an  important  part of the
                                 3-13

-------
analysis.  Concentrations of  pollutants at  the boundaries  of a
metropolitan  area  are poorly known quantities,  yet they have a
significant influence on the results.
     The preliminary  recommendations  resulting from the testing  and
assessment were then forwarded to  the decision-making  bodies for their
consideration.   Once the  policy recommendations were  made, limited
reruns were made with the technical  system due  to the  time required  in
relation  to  committee deliberations.  The modified results, along with
staff judgement, were used to  determine the implications of the policy
changes.
     In Figure 3-4, each of the  individual strategies  are  shown as they
affected  specific baseline assumptions described earlier.  In the short
term (1985)  transportation controls (without  land use measures) were
tested.  This was because it  was  assumed that the  effect of land use
measures,  or  "compact development,"  would be minimal in  the short term.
 In  the long term, transportation  and land use measures  were tested
together.   Land  use actions were  dependent on  transportation
 improvements  and vice versa.
     The technological improvements  for  stationary and mobile sources
were developed and  their effects on  emissions completed.   Similarly,  the
 effects of land  use and transportation were analyzed directly by  the
 ABAG and MTC models and then translated  into emission  changes.  Emission
 inventories were reconstructed based on  the  control measures, and  the
 resulting air Quality was orojected  by LIRAQ.
                                 3-14

-------
                                                     Figure  3-4
                                      Control strategy testing with
                                      the  AQMP Modeling  System
 The AQMP Modeling System
r~

ABAC
Local
Policy
Survey



ABAC
Series in
population,
employment,
&
land use
forecasts
/*


MTC
travel
demand
forecasts
V
X1
Stationary
and
mobile
source
emissions
inventories
X
S
Air
quality
model
(URAQ)

v ^v /N ^
CO
    Alternative
     control
    strategies
Compact
develop-
 ment
scenario
 Long
 term
 transit
 service
improve
 ments
   Short
   term
transportation
  control
   plan
   Short
   term
technological
improvements
   Long
   term
technological
improvements
?
r ^
v >
^ 7
^ 7
r >

Candidate control measures

-------
                              REFERENCES
3-1  Association of Bay Area Governments,  "Summary Report -  Provisional
     Series 3  Projections of Population, Housing, Employment  and Land
     Use in  the San Francisco Bay Region," Berkeley, California, January
     1978.

3-2  Cambridge Systematics, Inc.,  "Travel Model Development Project,"
     Phase  2 draft final report  prepared  for Metropolitan Transportation
     Commission, September 1977.

3-3  Urban  Mass Transportation  Administration,  "UMTA Transportation
     Planning System -  UTPS  Course  Notes,"  U.S.  Department  of
     Transportation, Washington,  D.C.,  1977.

3-4  Perardi,  T.E., Kim, M.Y.,  Leong,  E.Y. and Wada, R.Y.,  "Preparation
     and Use of Spatially and Temporally  Resolved Emission  Inventories
     in the  San Francisco Bay Region," presented at the 71st meeting of
     Air Pollution Control Association, June 1978.

3-5  MacCracken, M.C., and Sauter, G.D.,  Eds., "Development of an Air
     Pollution Model  for the San Francisco Bay Area" - Final Report to
     the National  Science Foundation,  Volumes  I  and  II, Lawrence
     Liver-more Laboratory, UCRL-51920,  October 1975.
                               3-16

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                          Chapter 4
       THE AIR QUALITY PROBLEM

     Photochemical oxidant, as the  contaminant of Initial  and deepest
concern in California has now been continuously monitored for 15 years
by the  BAAPCD.   After peaking in 1965, the oxidant levels showed a clear
downward  trend  for the  past 11  years, despite  large annual
weather-induced  fluctuations.  Days exceeding the Federal  one-hour
standard of .08 ppm averaged 131 in  the 1965-69 pentad and  85 in the
1970-74 pentad.  For the 1975 base year there were  69 days over
standard, and preliminary totals for 1976 show 65  days.  Despite more
than 50% improvement over  the past  decade, oxidant remains  the largest
and least tractable problem in terms of air quality maintenance.
     For oxidant the maps  in Figures 4-1 and 4-2 plot the number of days
over standard in 1975, and for comparison the  average values in the
1970-74 pentad.   Both maps show minimum excesses (0 to 5 days)  along the
coast, but in 1975 the clean band  had  widened  and extended further
inland.  Maximums in both  cases are over the inland sheltered  valleys,
but there were two significant differences.  First, the 1975  intensity
of the  maximum  was 20% lower, decreasing from 60 to 50 days.  1976  data
indicated a further weakening of this  maximum  to less than 35 days.
Second, the center of the  maximum had shifted from the Livermore Valley
to  the East Santa Clara Valley.   (The 1976 data showed the center
remaining as in  1975, but extending more toward Gilroy  than toward
Livermore.)
     Since the  formation of oxidant is highly weather-dependent,  the
District developed a "trend study"  technique to damp out the primary

                               4-1

-------
gt
I
ro
     1970-74 MEAN NUMBER
     OF DAYS WITH
     OXIDANT >.08 ppm.
NUMBER OF DAYS
IN 1975 WITH
OXIDANT >.08 ppm
                               Figure 4-1
                            Figure 4-2

-------
weather factors  (temperature and  Inversion height) and  compared the
oxldant  levels  only for days  when  these conditions favored its
formation.  Results of this study (updated  to  include 1976) are shown  in
Figure 4-3. On oxidant-conducive days,  the District average (for our 7
long-term stations) peaked  at .10  ppm  in 1965 and fell to .06 ppm  in
1976.   In 1971 this  average fell below  the Federal  standard and has
remained below it  ever since.  The two  long-term stations with averages
remaining over standard are San Jose and  Liver-more.
     The southeastward migration of highest values over the years was
another noteworthy feature of the oxidant  trend graph.   San Leandro led
(with over .15 ppm) in 1964; Livermore  led  (with over .14  ppm) in 1968
and  1969; San Jose  led  (with .11 to  .13  ppm) in 1974  and 1975.  These
highest station averages fortunately decreased at nearly the same rate
as the overall  District average.  The  reasons for the shift appeared  to
be related to the  15-year shifts in population and vehicle use, and  to
the  changes  in emission mix and emission patterns.  Additionally, the
increases in emissions of primary contaminants had been  into  the
sheltered valleys topographically and meteorologically least favorable
for mixing and dispersion.
                                 4-3

-------
.10
.08
   M
.06
 .04
 .02
0 - D  District Average
F - F  San Francisco
A - A  San Leandro
L-L  Livermore
J - J  San Jose
R - R  Redwood City
M-M San Rafael
C-C  Walnut Creek
                                                 M
  62
  YEAH
           63
                  64
                          65
                                 66
                                        67
                                                68
                                                               70
                                                                              72
                                                                                     73
                                                                                                    75
   Figure  4-3
   Trend of Average High-Hour Oxidant Concentrations For Days With Comparable Temperature & Inversion Conditions
   (April through October Photochemical Oxidant Seasons 1962-1976)
                                                  4-4

-------
                          Chapter 5
COMPILING EMISSIONS INVENTORIES

     Any  systematic approach to air  pollution control  requires
compilation of some kind of emissions inventory.   The source inventory
helps to  define the problems in terms of which pollutants  should be
considered, which  sources are important, and what control  measures might
be effective.  An  updated source inventory can be  used,  together with
meteorological information,  to model  and predict ambient air quality
effects for planning purposes.
     Existing  source  inventories  vary greatly  in  their detail,
methodology, and accuracy, depending on the intended use  and  available
resources.  A typical  source inventory might include ten or twenty
source categories, with  geographical  distribution by county, and
emission  rate units of tons/day or tons/year.  More detailed information
on some major point sources may be compiled by local jurisdictions for
internal  use for EPA's National Emissions Data System/Emission Inventory
Subsystem (NEDS/EIS).
     The  BAAPCD source inventory (5-1) is relatively sophisticated in
degree of detail, methodology and documentation.  It  includes, for
example,  107 separate categories for source classification.  The AQMP
effort utilized this comprehensive inventory as a starting point for the
modeling  effort;  however,  extensive modifications  and disaggregation
were  still needed to achieve the spatial and temporal  resolution
required  for the LIRAQ model.
     LIRAQ (5-2) is an Eulerian (grid-based) regional  model.  LIRAQ-2,
the  photochemical version is run with a 20 x 20 grid with squares 5 km
                               5-1

-------
on an edge.  The total  area covered in a given run  is 100 km x 100 km  or
10,000 km.   Since LIRAQ  can  also be run on 1 km  or 2 km grid squares,
the original  emission files  are  kept  on  a  1-km grid  basis, then
aggregated  to an  2-km or  5-km  basis,  as needed.  The total inventory
area, excluding ocean,  is approximately 20,000  sq  km  -- nine counties
around the San Francisco Bay.
     As shown  in Figure 5-1 the LIRAQ source inventory is made up  from
four  component parts, each part compiled with independent data  sources
and techniques.  The four components are:   major  point sources,  area
sources,  airports, and mobile sources.  Major point sources  include oil
refineries,  electric utilities, chemical industry,  metallurgy, rock and
mineral  operations, etc.—any stationary source emitting more than 0.1
ton/day or 25  tons/year of any pollutant.  Such sources are  identified
and  listed  separately  in  the existing source inventory, with accurate
information on location,  emissions,  stack  parameters,  operation
schedules, and  process  variability.   Area sources, also  called
"population-distributed" emissions,  include:  domestic  fuel combustion,
off-road mobile  sources, utility  engines, and small  stationary  sources
such  as service  stations, dry cleaners, small  plastics manufacturing,
etc.   Emissions  are  estimated  by a variety of  techniques including
direct measurement,  natural gas  use, solvent sales, gasoline  sales,
paint and resin  use, etc.  Airports include emissions  from  commercial,
military and general  aviation  from 37  airports in  the  Bay  area.
Emissions are calculated  with  factors based on engine type, operating
mode  through a five-step landing  and  takeoff cycle, and  traffic counts.
Fuel  consumption  data is also considered.  Mobile  sources include cars,
trucks, buses  and  motorcycles. Emissions  include  exhaust,  crankcase,
                                  5-2

-------
                            Figure 5-1

             Summary schematic of QSOtffile preparation.
rout source inventory componen

Major Point Sources
located on UTM grid





\ 2

/


Link ,-.._ * 3



Population ^ 4



Elevated


f ;"
Surface



Airport




Mobile


ArAO
Area




















"- 7
\
	 7









\
/






wown me

Elevated


OSOR
disaggregated
source inventory
1.2 or 5-km grid.
24-hr variation,
input tor LIRAQ










QSOR is the code name  for  the  final disaggregated source inventory file
which serves as input  to the Livermore Air Quality Model.
                                 5-3

-------
tire wear,  and  evaporative—during starting, over-the-road  travel, and
trip-end soak.
     Table 5-1 shows  the relative  contributions of  the  four source
inventory  components for the 1975 baseline inventory.  Focusing on  the
organic emissions, which are most important in oxidant control,  it  is
clear  that mobile and area sources are the largest contributors.  These
two categories  are also the most complex,  unfortunately,  for emissions
estimates  and  spatial and temporal resolution.   It should be noted that
errors in  distribution  do  not change the total  mass  of pollutant
emissions, only  the location and timing.   In  this case, the LIRAQ model
is  intended for regional photochemical  modeling (as  opposed to  local
plume modeling),  so  small distribution errors  should not be critical.

MAJOR  POINT SOURCES
     In  general  the major point sources  present no serious problems  in
spatial distribution.  One can pinpoint their locations  with a  street
map and USGS map and  read  the UTM  coordinates to the nearest 0.1  km.
Major  point sources  are carried  as  separate listings  and  are  further
divided into "surface" and "elevated" categories, depending on the stack
height.  The dividing  line is 100  feet.  The elevated  major point
 sources remain  as  individual   listings  in  the final source inventory
file,  called QSOR (see Figure 5-1).   Surface major  point  sources are
merged with emissions  from the other three source inventory components.
     The hourly and  seasonal process variations  of major  point  sources
are generally known.  Because these are large individual emitters, they
are subject to intense scrutiny  from regulatory agencies.   And  by the
nature of large  operations, there are usually reliable internal  process
                                 5-4

-------
Table 5.1   San Francisco Bay Area source inventory; four component
            breakdown as 1n QSOR  file preparation
Source Type
                    1975 Baseline Emissions (tons/day)

Major point
Area
Ai rport
Mobile
Total
Organics
129
394
23
467
1013
NOX (as N02)
192
101
13
390
696
CO
80
336
54
3808
4278
S02
198
12
1
19
230
Parti cul ate
19
98
9
43
169
aQSOR is the code name for the final disaggregated source inventory
 file which serves as input to the Livermore Air Quality Model.
                                5-5

-------
records  and accounting  data available to  serve as a basis for emission
rate calculations.   Electric utilities,  for example,  maintain detailed
records  of fuel consumption by boiler,  and generator output by  hour.
Most major  industries and businesses have records of production,
fuel-use, work-shifts,  etc.,  which are indicators of  emissions
variations.   Major point source  emissions for the chosen  day  are
allocated by  hour according to data of this kind, when available.   If
individual  process  records are not available,  the  source inventory
engineer may  estimate diurnal variations,  based on his  knowledge of  the
source  operation.

AIRPORTS
     Like major  point  sources, airports are also at known locations.
Because some landing and take-off emissions are spread out within  the
mixing  layer, airport emissions were distributed over neighboring grid
squares.   For commercial  and military flights,  emissions were
distributed  uniformly  over  all  grid  squares within 2 miles of  the
airport.  For general aviation at community airports, a distance of 1
mile was used.
     Aircraft  emissions  are  divided into three  source  inventory
classifications:  commercial carriers,  military, and  general aviation.
Commercial  carriers are most important from an emissions viewpoint,  and
fortunately these are also  the  best documented.  Comprehensive  schedule
books keep  up-to-date listings of commercial flights  to all the  major
airports  of the world, with arrival and departure times and aircraft
type.  For  this project,  BAAPCD  staff compiled data on commercial  air
carrier operations  at Bay Area airports from the 1975 "North American
                                 5-6

-------
Air Guide."   Temporal resolution factors for the three  large airports
              v
(San Francisco,  Oakland and San Jose) were based on this data.
     Operations  data for military  flights were based on  very limited
information.  Emission  estimates were based  on fuel usage data (5-3),
but actual  daily flight schedules are unpredictable and not publicized.
For  the four military airports in the Bay area, hourly operations were
estimated to be  90  percent during daylight hours and 10 percent night
flights.
     General aviation operations, mostly private single-engine aircraft,
are  also difficult to predict.   In this project, general aviation
emissions were uniformly distributed over daylight hours for 28 smaller
community airports, and extended to include some early morning and late
evening flights  at  busier Hayward and Buchanan  Fields.   Hourly traffic
counts on airport approach roads were used to check the diurnal patterns
of general  aviation.
     Since  military and general  aviation together  form only about 1
percent of the total organic inventory, the assumed hourly distributions
are considered adequate for present purposes.

AREA SOURCES
     Area  sources constitute another major challenge for spatial
resolution.   Among  the 107 activity classifications in the BAAPCD source
inventory,  58 include some area source contributions.  Some of these are
listed in Table  5-2.  The total area source tonnage is substantial  (see
Table  5-1), but the location of the  individual  small  sources is by
definition distributed in some fashion over the geographical  region  of
interest.   Various  alternatives for spatial resolution might  be
                                  5-7

-------
                  Table  5-2,    Excerpts3  from  the cross-classification  table  used  for  spatial distribution
                                of  area  source  emissions.


                       Tabled  values  represent the  percentage  of  the  area  source emissions  (from  a  given
                       source  classification)   to be distributed  with the  indicated  Series  3  variable.
                       Blanks  are  zeros-
en
i
CO
Area Source Classification
No
18
19
29
31
35
36
40
87
Description
Farming operations
Food/agric. proc.
Org. solv. storage
Indus, coating, solv.
Degreasers
Dry cleaning, perc.
Printing
Lawn mowers
tonsc
-
6.1
10.9
99.2
42.4
13.9
10.2
5.5
Series 3 Categories
17 9 11 12 13
Dwell. Agric. Print. Food Elec/opt. Fabr.
units forest publish prod. equip. metal
100
100
20 20
10 10 50
10 60

100
100
23 24
Retail Other
serv. serv.


5
5
20 10
100


                  aThe full cross-classification table has  58  area  source  classifications  and  19 Series 3 variable
                   categories.   (Numbering is not serial.)

                  t*ABAG Series 3 Projections of population, employment, etc.

                  cArea source organics emissions, tons/day, for a  summer  weekday.   Other  pollutants have different
                   emission rates but use the same distribution percentages.

-------
considered  (5-4, 5-5).  The simplest would  be  to  distribute the area
source  component uniformly  over  land area.  This  technique might be
acceptable  for a fairly uniform residential  or  agricultural area,  but
the  great  diversity of  the Bay  Area (cities,  water, mountains,
                                                                     •
industrial  and residential  areas, etc.) precludes this method.  The next
level of complexity would be to distribute area emissions proportional
to population.  This would be  a great improvement,  but some major flaws
remain.   Most census data concerns  residential population only and would
thus displace  the many non-major point sources which  operate in
industrial  and commercial  areas.   Also spatial  detail may be limited by
census  tract size, especially  in sparsely populated areas.
     The method  actually developed  for spatial  resolution of area
sources  requires a cross  classification of source categories with
employment and land use data. A  table of coefficients was compiled to
link 58  source  activity  classifications  (those with  area  source
components)  with 19 known employment and land use categories from ABAG's
"Series  3 Projections" (5-6).   The process  is  described in detail  in
AQMP/Tech Memo 21  (5-7).
     The Series 3 work covers  population, housing,  employment and land
use  in  the Bay  Area.  For the nine counties around  San Francisco Bay,
the data are compiled for 440  subregional  areas termed "zones," which
are made up of  one to approximately seven 1970 census tracts.  Housing
is recorded by dwelling  unit,   and  population/employment by  23
categories.  The information was derived from census data, local surveys,
fertility and immigration statistics.  A list of the  Series 3 variables
used to  allocate area source emissions  is provided  in  Table 5-3.
                               5-9

-------
     Table 5-3.   Summary list of nineteen Series 3a variables used in cross-classification
     analysis (for spatial resolution of area source emissions).
        Series 3
      Variable Code
Variable
  Name
     SIC"
Classification
Description
en
i
PI
P7
P8
P9
PIC
Pil
P12
P13
P14
P15
P16
P17
P18
P19
P20
P21
P22
P23
P24

DWELL
AGRI
MIN
MFG1
MFG2
MFG3
MFC 4
MFC 5
MFG6
TRAN
WHOL
FIN
SERV 1
SERV 2
GOV
RET
BUS. SERV.
RET. SERV.
OTHER SERV.
it
(not applicable)
1, 7-9
10, 13,
27
26, 28,
20
19, 36,
34, 35,
22-25,
40, 42,
50, 52
62, 63,
73
82, 84,
91, 92
53-59
80, 81,
70, 72,
15-17,
61, 66,

14

29, 32, 33

38
37
31, 39
44-46

67

89


96
75-79
41, 47-49, 60,
93-95, 99
Dwelling units
Agriculture, Forestry
Mining, quarry, oil & gas extraction
Printing, publishing




Petrol., chem. , paper, metal industries
Food and kindred products
Electrical, optical, machinery & instr
Fabricated metal products
Textiles, apparel, wood, leather
Transportation (non-auto), pipelines
Wholesale trade,- building material
Financial, insurance
Business services
Educ. service, museums, galleries
Government
General merchandise & food stores
Health, legal, admin, services
Hotels, personal service, repairs

*











Construction, transit, utilities, banking
real estate, other

     aABAG Series 3 Projections  of population employment,  etc

     ^Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1972.

-------
     Before  It could be used as  a basis for  area  source distribution,
the Series  3  data had to be distributed over the 1-km  UTM grid system.
This critical  step was  accomplished by a  combination of manual  and
computer  techniques.  First, regional maps were used  to eliminate those
grid squares which are essentially uninhabited.   Those areas  (bays,
tidelands,  marshes, mountains, etc.) comprise about 75 percent of the
total  area.  Series 3 variables  were then distributed  from 440 zones  to
the remaining  grid squares, which total 5000 to 6000 sq. km of developed
or  developable  land.  The  exact  total  depends  on the year being
considered.
     A cross-classification table was then  developed to link  certain
types  of  area sources with appropriate Series  3 variables.  For some
source classifications  a direct correspondence  could  be found.   For
                                        <
example,  BAAPCD  source category number 18 "Farming Operations" could be
linked  with Series 3 employment  category P7 "AGRI"  which includes
agricultural  production and services.  Similarly, source classification
number 40  "Printing" could be distributed with Series  3  "MFG1" which  is
printing, publishing and related industries.  In most cases,  however,
the source classification did not fit clearly with a single Series 3
variable.  For  these  cases, professional  judgment was employed to
produce a  multiple distribution  formula, so that area source emissions
from  a  single source classification could be distributed with two or
more Series  3  variables.  For example, source classification number 35
"Degreasers"  provides area emissions of 42 tons/day of  organics.  These
were distributed  as follows:  60 percent with MFG5 (fabricated metal
products),  20 percent with RET,  SERV. (retail  and services including
auto repairs), 10 percent with MFG4 (manufacturing including  electrical
                                 5-11

-------
and optical  equipment), and 10 percent with OTHER SERV. (including  local
transit  and transportation services).  Excerpts from the classification
table are shown  as  Table 5-2.  The  percentage values  were chosen  by
BAAPCD engineers, based on their knowledge of  local industry conditions.
     Area source emissions were distributed  and then  totaled for each
Series  3 category  (for  each pollutant).   Totals were divided by  the
known total  population of the category to produce a per capita emission
rate.   As an example, for the 394 tons/day of organics for area source
distribution (see Table 5-1), the total for Series  3  category P9, from
all  source classifications, was 20.75 tons/day.  The total employment
population in P9 (printing and publishing) was 25,170, so the per capita
emission factor was .00082 tons/day of organics per printing/publishing
employee.  The per  capita emission rates, for  each  Series 3 category  and
each pollutant,  were then  used  with the  known  Series  3 population
distributions to produce  the  area source spatial resolution.  Results
were checked by summing area source emissions over all  grid squares.
The  totals must agree with total area source  emissions (Table 5-1) used
as a starting point.
      It  should be  noted  that  changes in the percentage values shown  in
Table 5-2  do not  change  the  amount of area source  emissions (as long as
the  entries sum across to 100 percent). Only the  distribution of  the
emissions would be  changed.
      The hourly distribution  of area sources  is based on  diurnal
variation coefficients  for  each  source classification.   These
coefficients were  compiled by engineers in the BAAPCD  source inventory
group.   Weighted  hourly variation factors were produced by multiplying
area emissions per  classification by the diurnal variation factors  of
                                 5-12

-------
each classification.  The resulting (normalized)  set  of  factors were
then used  for temporal resolution of all area  source emissions.

MOTOR VEHICLES
     The calculation of motor vehicle emissions is logically  divided
into two separate parts.   The  first part deals with  emissions which
occur on  major streets and highways from vehicle engines that are fully
"warmed-up"  (i.e., hot stabilized).  The second part covers  emissions
which occur primarily at  the  beginning  and end of each trip due to
different engine operating characteristics.   These  emissions  are
referred  to as  cold start, hot start, and hot  soak.  The  data required
to compute each of these  two aspects of motor vehicle emissions  are
quite different,  as are  their resulting  geographic  and  hourly
distributions.
     The  highway-  or  "1ink"-related hot stabilized  emissions were
computed  using  modified versions of two computer codes previously
developed for  the Federal  Highway Administration (5-8).   The trip-end
related  emissions were computed  through the use  of  programs developed at
ABAG (5-9).   The  overall  sequence of operation  and  input data
requirements and  sources for both codes are summarized  in Figure 5-1.
As  shown, each  set of programs outputs  emissions on  an  hourly basis,
geographically distributed by one kilometer UTM grid squares.  The two
data  sets are  then merged  for input to the  air quality model  (LIRAQ).
For input, both codes require transportation data from the  Metropolitan
Transportation Commission (MTC)  and emission factors from the California
Air Resources Board.  A summary  of baseline transportation data inputs
is shown in  Table 5-4.
                                 5-13

-------
TABLE 5-4.  SUMMARY OF BASELINE TRANSPORTATION DATA INPUTS TO
              MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS ESTIMATION
PARAMETER	                              YEAR
                        1965         1975           1985           20001
VEHICLE TRIPS	

  o Homebased work   1,706,983    2,144,693       2,542,951      3,038,406

  o Non-work         5,370,480    6,904,098       8,215,373      9,859,449

  o LDV Total        7,077,463    9,048,791      10,758,324     12,897,855


VEHICLE MILES
  o Homebased work  14,055,453   20,199,644      23,645,050     30,309,087

  o Non-work        27,873,495   40,623,164      52,516,997     73,350,341

  o LDV sub-total   41,928,948   60,822,808      76,162,047    103,659,428

  o HDV @ 12.8 %     5,366,905    7,785,319       9,748,742     13,268,407

  o Total VMT       47,295,853   68,608,127      85,910,789    116,927,835
 1  Provisional Series III Base Case 1 Alternative

                                   5-14

-------
     The motor  vehicle emission factors  used were derived through the
use of a California Air Resources Board  emission factor program,  EMFAC3.
This program was,  in turn, based on EPA's  Supplement 5*  to AP-42, with
some minor modifications.
     The EMFAC3 program computed composite emission factors for HC and
NOX in  units of grams per mile.  It provided emission factor estimates
for average route  speeds from 5 to 50 mph, ambient temperatures from 20
to  80°  F,  and  any desired mix of cold and hot start operation.   Factors
could be for a  weighted average of four  vehicle types (light duty auto,
light  duty truck, heavy  duty gasoline,  heavy duty diesel) or for each
vehicle type.
     ARB's  EMFAC3 was the basis  for computing the AQMP mobile source
emission factors.**  However, a  number  of variables, which vary with
geographical location  and  estimation situation, can affect emissions
estimates considerably:  average vehicle  speed, ambient temperature,
type of vehicle,  percentages of cold and  hot start trips and percent of
travel  by vehicle  age  (see Figure 5-2).  Therefore, localized correction
factors reflecting these variables were  developed based on Bay Area
conditions.
     Speed  and ambient temperature correction factors were developed
from formulas provided in  EPA's Supplement 5 to AP-42.  Estimates of
**
n"his  supplement has been replaced  by Mobile Source Emission  Factors,
 EPA-400/9-78-005, March, 1978.
 These factors  were subsequently  adjusted to incorporate  EPA's  draft
 Supplement 8 factors (June 1977).   The  latest  revision to the
 Supplement (March 1978) was  not  available in time to be  used in the
 analysis.
                               5-15

-------
  Figure  5-2
  Organization of the motor vehicle emissions code
       A. LINK EMISSIONS COMPONENT
                                                        B. TRIP-END EMISSIONS COMPONENT
                   MTC Link
                     Output
ARB
ARB
        B
N
f
ABAG
VEM
~ >
f
A
                     Hourly     7
                      UTM     L-
                    Gridded
                    Emissons
                                                                           Hourly
                                                                           UTM
                                                                          Gridded
                                                                         Emissions
 Merge
Outputs
  For
 Mobile
 OSOR
                                                                                         E  /SATS
         LINK EMISSIONS
         Required input data:
         A — State plane/UTM transform
         B — Emission and deterioration  factors for
             each model year for 1975, 1985, 2000
         C — Motorcycle  emission factors, SO2 and
             paniculate emission factors for all veh-
             icles, weighted  average  for 1975,
             1965, 2000.
         D — Updated speed correction  equations
             for LDV, HDV, diesel.
         E — Percentage  truck and motorcycle VMT
             by hour  and functional road type
                                                           TRIP-END EMISSIONS
                                                           Required input data:
                                                           A — Origin-destination trip  tables for each
                                                               travel model run (including intrazonal)
                                                           B — Hourly distribution of trip starts by trip
                                                               purpose for four soak  periods
                                                           C — Intrazonal VMT per zone
                                                           D — Cold start, hot soak emission factors
                                                               for 1975,  1985,  2000  (weighted aver-
                                                               age over vehicle population)
                                                           E — Hot-soak period distribution
                                                           F — 440 zone/1 km grid conversion
                       ABAG = Association of Bay Area Governments
                       ABAGVEM = name of computer code with vehicle emission factors
                       ARB = California Air Resources Board
                       BAGRID = computer code to distribute link emissions to grid squares
                       CALTRANS = California Department of Transportation
                       LIRAQ = Livermore Air Quality Model
                       MTC = Metropolitan Transportation Commission
                       QSOR = name of source inventory file for LIRAQ model
                       SATS = Sacramento Area Transportation Study
                       UTM = Universal Transverse Mercator coordinate system
                                               5-16

-------
link speeds and  the distribution of vehicle  types were  provided by the
Federal  Highway Administration (FHWA).   Assumptions for the average
ambient  temperature were  a  compromise between  the average  summer
minimums  and the maximums observed at different regional locations.  The
ambient temperature correction factor was  insensitive  to  temperatures
above  80° F-  Vehicle age distributions and pollution control  equipment
deterioration  rates (provided by EMFAC3) were also incorporated into the
emission  factors.
Link Emissions
     A highway  link  system (for 1975 and updated for 1985  and 2000) and
a transportation model to forecast travel volumes on each link were the
basis for the  link emissions calculations. Both the link systems and the
transportation model  were provided by MTC  (see  Chapter 3  for
description).  As previously stated,  a modified version of  FHWA computer
code, called SAPOLLUT, was used to actually  compute the link emissions,
given  the appropriate link information and the emission factors (5-8).
The modified model, called ABAGVEM, computed estimates  of  speed on the
highway network  according to the volume/capacity ratio on each link, for
each hour.  These  speed estimates  determined the  appropriate speed
correction factor to  apply.
     ABAGVEM  also  provided diurnal  traffic distributions  and  the
distribution of vehicle  types on different road types.  Five types  of
vehicles  were  examined:  light duty auto (LDA), light duty  truck (LOT),
heavy  duty gasoline-powered vehicle (HDG), heavy duty diesel-powered
vehicle (HDD)  and motorcycle.  The distribution of total VMT among the
various vehicle  types was obtained from ARB  as follows:
                               5-17

-------
           Vehicle Type        Percent of Light Duty Vehicle
                                     VMT (IDA + LDTT	

              LDA        ,                 86.2%
              LOT                         13.8%
              HDG                          8.6%
              HDD                          4.2%
           Motorcycle                      0.9%
     Finally, a separate program read the output from  ABAGVEM (i.e., the

hourly  and total daily  link  emissions for  the  entire network)  and

performed  the following:


       o converted the State  plan coordinates of the  MTC  network
         to the UTM  (Universal  Transverse Mercator)  coordinates
        required for LIRAQ.

       o allocated the link emissions  into three LIRAQ-defined
         reactivity classes

       o wrote an output  file in  a format suitable  for  input to
        LIRAQ


Trip End Emissions

     A  separate  computer program  for  estimating trip  end  emissions

produced hot start, cold start  and  hot soak emissions  by  zone  and  hour

of  day  (see Figure 5-3).  It also  computed hot stabilized emissions for

intrazonal (i.e., within the  zone)  trips.  The basis  for  the  emissions

computations was a trip generation  table which was developed by  the MTC

transportation  model.  From this  table the program computed  the  number

of  trip starts (i.e., origins)  and stops (i.e., destinations).  The

emissions rates  were determined  as a  function  of  the parking  (or

shutdown) time before and  after  a trip (for the start and  stop trips,

respectively)  and whether the vehicle was  catalyst or non-catalyst

equipped.
                                 5-18

-------
 Figure 5-3
 Flowchart of trip-end emissions program.
                               TRIP END EMISSIONS
                                       INPUT
                               Trip productions/attractions
                               for each,purpose and zone
                                        I
                                      COMPUTE
                            Composite hot soak emission factor
                             for production and attraction ends
            PRODUCTION END
     COMPUTE
 Number of trip starts
by hour, purpose, zone
     COMPUTE
    Hot start and
  cold start emissions
     COMPUTE
 Number of trip stops
by hour, purpose, zone
     COMPUTE
 Hot soak emissions
                                  ATTRACTION END
     COMPUTE
 Number of trip starts
by hour, purpose, zone
     COMPUTE
  Hot start and cold
   start emissions
                                      OUTPUT
                         Total emissions for each pollutant by hour
     COMPUTE
 Number of trip stops
by hour, purpose, zone
     COMPUTE
  Hot soak emissions
                                      5-19

-------
     A special  study  by Caltrans provided parking  time profiles by  trip

purpose  and by trip  end (origin or destination).  From these profiles

more accurate estimates were made  of the percent  of  trip starts and

stops  experiencing  hot and cold start and hot soak  emissions.  The trip

purpose generally  differentiated between the work  related and therefore

long-term parkers  and  the  non-work, and therefore, short-term parkers

(e.g., shopping,  recreational).   The trip end  identified whether the

vehicle  was  starting  or  stopping  at the  home zone and  thus the

likelihood of a long  parking period.

      In  computing  trip end  emissions,  four trip  end types  were

considered.  The  work trip is cited as an example:


       o the trip origins at the  home  (i.e., production)  end,
         where many  cold  starts take place in the  morning

       o the trip destinations at the work (i.e.,  attraction) end,
         where many  hot  soaks take place in the morning

       o the trip origins at the work (attraction) end, where many
         evening  cold starts occur for the return  trip

       o the  evening destinations  back at the home (production)
         end, where  hot  soaks occur.


      Note  that the  terms starts and origins, stops  and destinations are

used  interchangeably.



BASELINE EMISSION TRENDS

     The baseline trends  for hydrocarbon and Nitrogen  Oxides emissions

are shown in Table  5-5  and shown geographically in  Figures 5-4 and 5-5,

respectively.  For hydrocarbons, the most significant source categories

were organic compounds evaporation (otherwise known  as organic  solvents)

and both light and heavy  duty motor vehicles.   Each  of these  source
                                  5-20

-------
TABLE 5-5.  EMISSIONS BY MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORY (TONS/DAY)
                            1975               1985              2000
MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORY
Petroleum Refining
Chemical
Other Industrial /Commercial
Petroleum Refinery
Evaporation
Gasoline Distribution
Other Organic Compounds
Evaporation (Organic
Solvents)
Combustion of Fuels
Burning of Materials
Off-Highway Mobile Sources
Aircraft
Light-duty Automobiles
Other Motor Vehicles
TOTAL (TON/DAY) 1
HC
25.2
5.5
10.2
46.0
60.4
311.1
8.1
19.8
45.0
19.6
340.1
132.2
,023
NOX
5.9
3.1
2.5
-
-
.
196.0
1.4
59.4
13.5
231.7
167.8
731
HC
41.0
5.6
11.1
50.0
27.1
344.8
11.5
22.2
50.3
20.2
117
96
797
N0x
15.2
2.9
2.7
-
-
—
321.1
1.5
73.7
19.6
89.3
165.8
692
HC
55.4
6.
12.7
52.1
28.2
493.4
15.0
23.6
75.4
27.8
160.6
107.1
1,058
NO
X
20.0
3.9
3.1
-
-
—
279.8
1.7
94.1
32.7
77.1
208.4
721
                                5-21

-------
Figure 5-4
HYDROCARBON EMISSION TRENDS
SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION
     TONS/DAY
     1100i
                     SOURCE CATEGORY:

1000-
900>
800-

700



600-


500

400f
300-
200-

100

0-













H
G






L



K





J
I

F


D
A












H




c
B





L


K

J
I


F

o

A







G
f-l








C
B


L

K
J
I








F
E
D

A

L-OTHER MOTOR VEHICLE

K-LIGHT DUTY AUTO
J -AIRCRAFT
1 OFF HIGHWAY MORN F ^OIIROF1?


G-COMBUSTION OF FUELS





F-OTHER ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
EVAP. (ORGANIC SOLVENTS)
E -GASOLINE DIST
D-PETROLEUM REFINERY EVAP
C-OTHER IND /COMM
B-CHEMICAL
A-PETROLEUM REFINING
          1975
1985
2000
                           5-22

-------
Figure 5-5
NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSION TRENDS
SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION
    TONS/DAY
    800 1
    700-
    600-
    500-
    400-
    300-
    200
       •'
            H
    100-
          1975
  H
1985
                                                   SOURCE CATEGORY:
  H
                                                I-OTHER MOTOR VEHICLE
H-LIGHT DUTY AUTO
                                                G-AIRCRAFT
                                                  F-QFF-HiG_HWAY MOBILE
                                                E-BURNING OF MATERIALS
                                                D-COMBUSTION OF FUELS
                                                 MOTHER IND./COMM.
                                                      ?LEUM REFINING
2000
                                5-23

-------
categories  had previously been the target of control efforts,  and  it was
evident  that  further controls would  be necessary if significant air
quality improvement was to be made.  Total hydrocarbon  emissions were
projected  to  decrease somewhat by  1985 due to the implementation of
controls now on the books, but  to  rise back  to  the  1975  level by the
year 2000.
     For oxides of nitrogen,  the principal  source  categories  were
stationary source fuel  combustion, and light  and  heavy duty motor
vehicles.  NOV  emissions were projected to remain at a relatively
              s\
constant level  over the 25 year planning time frame.   By  1985, the
expected increase in stationary  source NO  emissions  due  to  increased
                                       A
use of fuel oil would be offset  by additional  motor vehicle NO  control.
                                                           /\
By 2000, increasing usage of  nuclear fuels and/or  siting  of  new power
plants  outside the  region  for electric  power was assumed; this
assumption offsets increases  in NOV  emissions from other source
                                   A
categories.
     A summary of  the  motor  vehicle emissions,  shown in Table 5-6,
revealed that while automobiles contributed the  majority of hydrocarbon
emissions from motor vehicles,  heavy duty gasoline and diesel trucks
were  significant contributors as well.  Another observation was that
emission levels for the pollutants would decline  substantially between
1975  and 1985 due  to the implementation of current legislated emission
control programs.   However,  from  1985 to 2000  the overall  growth in
vehicular  activity would begin  to negate the gains made up to 1985.  An
additional  factor leading to  the long-term increase in emissions was the
expected high rate of deterioration  of emission control devices for
conventional engines.   EPA has projected that future autos  meeting the
                                 5-24

-------
                              TABLE 5-6
  SUMMARY OF BASELINE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION PROJECTIONS*  (TONS/DAY)
HYDROCARBONS                        1975	1985	2000
   Tripend                          206.0           99.0         127.7
   Link                             266.3          113.9         140.0
   Total                            472.3          212.9         267.7
OXIDES OF NITROGEN
   Tripend
   Link
   Total
1975
17.6
381.8
399.4
1985
16.0
239.1
255.1
2000
13.6
271.9
285.5
       APPROXIMATE PERCENT OF EMISSIONS FROM EACH VEHICLE
VEHICLE CLASS                 1975          1985         2000
                           HC     NOX    HC     NOX    HC     NOX
Light duty autos           72%    58%    55%    35%    60%    27%
Light duty trucks and
  motorcycles               8%     9%     8%     6%     6%     7%
Heavy duty gas trucks      19%    17%    33%    28%    28%    30%
Heavy duty diesel           1%    17%     5%    30%     5%    36%
* Revised in July, 1977 according toa June,  1977  memo issued by the Acting
  Assistant Administrator for Air and Waste  Management,  U.S.  Environmental
  Protection Agency regarding the revised Motor Vehicle  Emission Factors, and  a
  July, 1977 memo issued by ARB to local  AQMP agencies regarding the incorporation
  of the revised motor vehicle emission factors into the AQMP phase II  effort
                                      5-25

-------
stringent emission  standards when new would not maintain the high degree
of control  for  very long.
     Another significant aspect of the motor vehicle emissions  trends
was the contribution of trip-end versus link (or VMT)  related emissions.
When a vehicle with a cold engine  is started  up,  the emission  rate
during the first  few minutes of driving is  considerably higher than
after the engine  temperature has stabilized. A short trip produces  the
same  amount of cold start emissions as a long  trip,  the only difference
being the quantity  produced after  the engine  has warmed up.   It  was
•*
clear that transportation control  strategies had to  not only reduce VMT
but to reduce the number of trips.
                                 5-26

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                              REFERENCES
5.1   Bay Area Air Pollution  Control District,  "Base Year 1975 Emissions
      Inventory, Summary  Report," Bay Area  Air Pollution Control
      District, San Francisco, California, 1976.
5.2
      MacCracken, M.C. and Sauter, 6.D., eds., "Development of an Air
      Pollution Model for the  San Francisco Bay  Area," UCRL-51920, Vol.
      1.,  Lawrence Livermore  Laboratory, University  of California,
      Livermore, California,  1975.

5.3   Association of Bay Area Governments/Bay Area Air Pollution Control
      District, "Aviation  Effect on Air Quality in  the Bay Region,"
      Association of Bay Area Governments,  Berkeley, California, 1971.

5.4   U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, "Guidelines for Air Quality
      Maintenance Planning and  Analysis, Volume  8:  Computer-Assisted
      Area  Source Emissions  Gridding,"  EPA-450/4-74-009, Research
      Triangle Park, North Carolina, 1974.

5.5   U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency,  "Guidelines for Air Quality
      Maintenance Planning  and Analysis, Volume  13:   Allocating
      Projected Emissions  to  Subcounty Areas," Appendices A and B,
      EPA-450/4/74-014A, Research Triangle  Park,  North Carolina, 1974.

5.6   Association of Bay Area  Governments,  "Summary Report, Provisional
      Series 3 Projections,"  Association of Bay Area  Governments,
      Berkeley, California,  1977.

5.7   Perardi, T.  and  Kim,  M.,  "Geographical Distribution of Emissions
      from Non-Point (Area)  Sources," Tech Memo  21 in  Appendix G, Air
      Quality Technical Materials, San Francisco Bay Area Environmental
      Management Plan, Association of Bay Area Governments, Berkeley,
      California, June,  1978.

5.8   Comsis Corporation,  "User Documentation for ABAGVEM and BAGRID
      Auto Emission  Analysis  and Summary Programs,"  developed for
      Association of Bay Area Governments,  April, 1977.

5.9   Wada,  R. and Kan,  I.,  "Baseline Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventory:
      Methodology and Results," Tech Memo 12,  in  Appendix G, Air Quality
      Technical  Materials,  San Francisco Bay Area  Environmental
      Management Plan, Association of Bay Area Governments, Berkeley,
      California, June 1978.

5.10  Association of  Bay  Area Governments, "Draft Environmental
      Management Plan  for  the San Francisco Bay Region," Volume I,
      Association  of Bay  Area Governments, Berkeley, California, 1977,
      Chapter VI.
                               5-27

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                          Chapter 6
       PROJECTING AIR QUALITY

    The  Bay Area oxidant problem  is  characterized by complex
atmospheric, chemical and topographical interactions.  Pollutants
already in the air (initial concentrations) and those added to the air
(source  emissions) are transformed into the resulting air quality
(atmospheric pollutant concentrations)  through  the  processes  of
atmospheric transport, mixing,  chemistry and photochemistry.  Each of
these  processes  usually will have  large spatial and temporal variations
caused by topography, diurnal solar cycle, the mix of pollutants, etc.
Previous  planning efforts to improve air quality in the Bay Area have
been hindered because the air quality forecasting methods did not take
into account all of these factors  and were not technically credible or
defensible.  In 1975, the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory* completed the
development of an air pollution model specifically designed to address
the oxidant problems of the Bay Area.   LIRAQ (Livermore Regional Air
Quality Model) focused on an accurate simulation of chemical reactions,
pollutant transport, varying meteorology and base inversion heights to
produce detailed pollutant concentrations levels.  An inventory of all
existing air quality forecasting methods revealed that LIRAQ was
eminently suited for the task of evaluating effectiveness of control
measures.  Thus,  LIRAQ formed the  technical basis for  developing the
oxidant control  plan.
*In cooperation with the BAAPCD.
                               6-1

-------
     In  order to properly determine whether controls  would satisfy  air

quality  standards,  LIRAQ required  a wide variety  of  source emissions

data on  an  hourly basis for each  grid  square covering the  region.  These

stringent  data  requirements  resulted in the development of a complex

battery  of  models from numerous sources, which combined  to comprise  the

AQMP air quality modeling system.

     The AQMP air quality modeling system had six  components:


      o Population, employment,  housing and land use models
         maintained by  ABAG (the  ABAG  Series 3  Projections
         System);

      o Travel demand forecasting models maintained  by  MTC;

      o The Emission Inventory and Disaggregation Model s--Motor
         Vehicle (ABAG),  Aircraft (BAAPCD),  Stationary Source
         (BAAPCD);

      o LIRAQ maintained by  the  BAAPCD.


     The  demographic,  travel  demand and  emissions  inventory  and

disaggregation models have been described in Chapter  3.   The following

sections discuss how LIRAQ was used to  project future air  quality and to

help develop the appropriate  control  strategies.



THE LIVERMORE REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MODEL

     Independent of the AQMP,  LIRAQ was developed  as  an  operational tool

to  assist in determining whether control  strategies complied with

Federal  ambient  air quality  standards.  Specifically, given  the

emissions  patterns and meteorological  process, LIRAQ  would provide

hourly concentrations of ozone for the  Bay Area.

     An  inventory of  air quality models was made at the outset of  the

study to determine how control  strategies would be evaluated.  A major
                                 6-2

-------
shortcoming  of  previous air quality plans  for the Bay Area  and other

regions  had been the use  of an aggregated emission inventory  and the

"linear rollback" technique.  This approach to predicting future air

quality  was based on past meteorological  and air quality trends.  The

shortcomings of linear  rollback (and modified  versions*) were  as

follows:

       o Linear rollback related oxidant to hydrocarbons  only; it
         is  known that oxidant levels  depend significantly on  both
         reactive hydrocarbons and NOx emissions.

       o Linear rollback neglected  important non-linearities in
         the oxidant-hydrocarbon relation.

       o Linear rollback neglected background oxidant levels that
         may have been significant.

       o Linear rollback neglected  the spatial  distribution of
         emissions and the issue of transport.

         The advantages of the linear  rollback were two-fold:

       o The relationships were based on actual atmospheric  data
         (if available) and would predict successfully even when
         the actual physical process  (of  oxidant formation) was
         not understood completely.

       o It  was simple and relatively  inexpensive to apply.

         The recommended modeling approach was therefore  to:

         1)    Achieve  technical  validity through use of  LIRAQ
              - The modeling approach  should represent  the
              state  of the  art  in  air quality modeling and
              thus establish the technical credibility of  the
              analysis.

         2)    Achieve technical  consistency  through the use of
              the statistical Larsen  analysis combined with
              the linear rollback assumption.  Due to the  more
              simplistic  assumptions  underlying  the
              statistical approach,  the results were easier to
              interpret and more consistent.
*e.g.,  the method presented  in Appendix J  of  the EPA's regulations
governing development  of State  implementation plans  (40  C.F.R. part
51.14(c)(4) (1975)); Appendix J was revoked February 8, 1979  (40 FR
8234).


                               6-3

-------
     The  application of two radically different approaches would define
a range  of  future air quality from a given  strategy.  This range would
reflect the  technical uncertainties that  exist in air quality modeling.

PROJECTING AIR QUALITY -- MODELING ISSUES
     In developing the modeling procedures,  certain  issues had  to  be
resolved in order to achieve data  consistency and validity.   These
issues were:   which prototype meteorological  days to  use,  how  to
validate the  model  and  what future initial and boundary conditions  to
specify.
     Baseline Projections—Baseline air quality levels  were developed
for  1975 for  calibration purposes and for 1985 and 2000, for emissions
sensitivity  testing.  These levels assumed no additional  controls and
existing regional growth  trends.  An important aspect of the baseline
and subsequent projections was the choice of  a "prototype meteorological
day"  for validating and running LIRAQ.  As a deterministic model, LIRAQ
was designed to  replicate the physical processes of oxidant formation  in
the  course  of one day based on real, previously acquired meteorological
observations.   In  part for economic reason,  "prototype  meteorological
days"  already  in  the LIRAQ data base at  the  beginning of the study were
used in prediction of future oxidant concentrations; however, they were
not the worst  case days.  Since the oxidant standard was defined as "not
to be exceeded more than once per year,"  demonstrating oxidant levels  at
or below .08  ppm on days  which were not the worst or second worst day
did  not  necessarily demonstrate the attainment of  the standard.
However, LIRAQ  had already been validated on several historical  days  in
order to verify that  it could produce  the  oxidant  levels that were
                                 6-4

-------
measured on  those days.  Inputs of each prototype day required  several
months  of effort to develop  because the data collection and computer
processing tasks were labor intensive.
     A correction factor based on  observed and Larsen Model calculations
was therefore applied  to the LIRAQ estimate  to obtain the expected
worst-hour oxidant.
     The Model Validation Process—Since models invariably contained
simplifications and modifications of what happened in  reality, it was
expected that model predictions would not replicate  perfectly the
observed measurements.  A procedure was therefore devised for computing
adjustment factors to LIRAQ output as follows:

                     ft-ll  or  Cs = ^.Cf
                     Cv   <=„,          Cv   f

     Where  - C  =   regionwide high hour oxidant concentration
                   measured on the validation day
             C  =   regionwide high  hour oxidant concentration
              v      reproduced by  the model on the validation day
             Cf  =   regionwide high hour oxidant concentration
                    forecasted by the model under some future
                    emission scenario
             GS  =   regionwide high hour oxidant concentration to
                   be  computed  and  compared to  the  oxidant
                    standard
     In other words,  the ratio of the  measured regionwide  high  hour
oxidant concentration  on  a  given validation day to the model-produced
regionwide high  hour oxidant concentration was used to adjust  forecasted
oxidant maxima.  This  compensated for  any inherent biases  in the model
                                 6-5

-------
or input data.  For  example, on July  26,  1973, the measured oxidant
maximum was  .18 ppm, while the model-produced maximum was .17  ppm.  The
adjustment ratio was therefore .18/.17  =  1.06.
     This procedure was reasonable provided that the magnitude  of the
adjustment was small.  No  adjustment  factor  could be  expected  to
adequately compensate for major deficiencies  in either model  formulation
or input data base.  The small magnitude  of the adjustment for  July 26,
1973 was indicative  of good model  performance.
     Specifying  Future  Initial  and  Boundary  Conditions  - The
specification of  initial  and boundary  conditions  for future year
simulations was an important problem for  oxidant modeling, particularly
when  testing control strategy cases which would reduce the  simulated
oxidant levels to  levels at or near  the oxidant standard.   As  emissions
were reduced, the  contribution of  pollutants  specified to  enter the grid
from its boundaries  (boundary conditions) became increasingly  important.
Concentrations of  pollutants at the  boundaries of a metropolitan area
were poorly understood.  There were very limited data which  could be
used  for validation on a  historical  day,  and  virtually no data for
future year simulations which could  act as a  guide.
     These problems were dealt with  in the plan development  effort in
the following way:
       o Initial conditions for hydrocarbons  and nitric oxide were
         factored up or  down proportionally to the change in  the
         aggregate regional emission inventory for each pollutant.
         In addition, all  simulations were  initiated in  pre-dawn
         hours  to minimize the initial  concentrations of secondary
         pollutants.
       o Since  the prototype meteorology  being used consisted of a
         prevailing  onshore wind,  flow  through the upwind  boundary
         was  assumed to  contain  background  levels of all  species
         both during model  validation  and  during  future year
         simulations.
                                 6-6

-------
      o The vertical  boundary condition  at  the  base of the
        temperature Inversion was originally defined to depend
        partially on the  concentration of  pollutants In  the grid
        cell below.  Therefore, as emission levels changed, the
        boundary condition at the  celling  would change  in the
        same direction.  Since the degree of  vertical  transport
        down from the  inversion was  relatively small on the
        prototype day, no  change in  this form of  specification
        was considered warranted.
     The specification of  the  vertical  boundary condition  and the
resolution  of  the worst case issue appeared to be intimately related.
There was  evidence that in California the  highest oxidant levels  were
measured during multiple-day  episodes which involved substantial
transport  of polluted air down from the inversion.  This polluted  air,
believed  to result from a previous  day's  events and sheltered from
substantial  NOV quenching  by the  inversion, mixed with the  "fresh"
              A
pollutants  generated on the high  oxidant  day,  producing  the extreme
concentrations  recorded.
     If one attempted to validate a model  on  such a worst  case day, one
would  have  been  faced with the problem  of  specifying  the  crucial
vertical  boundary concentrations  with  little or no data to guide the
specification.  If one attempted to validate  a model on a day where the
boundary  condition was not crucial,  some  sort of extrapolation would
have to be made to relate the model results to the oxidant  standard.

EMISSIONS  SENSITIVITY TESTING
     The time and monetary resources required to  produce a single
complete  run  of  the air quality forecasting system was substantial — in
excess of  several  thousand  dollars for staff  and computer  costs.   This
resulted in  two courses of  action  when developing the control
                                6-7

-------
strategies:
       o  extensive use of pre-screening techniques  so that the
         control  measures which  were finally  tested had the
         greatest potential  for improving air quality.
       o  performing an emissions sensitivity analysis to determine
         the target emissions reductions of hydrocarbon and NOX
         which would be required to attain the Federal oxidant
         standard.  This target would  be the basis for packaging
         the  control measures into strategies for further testing.
     The sensitivity  analysis was  implemented in successive  iterations
using a number of different hydrocarbon  and  NO  emissions  assumptions
                                             J\
described below:
       o uniform percentage reduction of both hydrocarbons  and  NOj.
         uniformly across the region until the  oxidant standard
         was  attained;
       o uniform hydrocarbon reductions only until  the standard
         was  attained;
       o other  tests on the spatial  and temporal  distribution of
         emissions, mobile versus stationary source contributions,
         etc.
     The  analysis  was  applied to both  the 1985 and 2000  emissions
inventories  in  a  systematic fashion  such that results from previous  runs
could  permit the optimum design of  subsequent new runs.   The  results of
the sensitivity runs are presented  in  Figures 6-1 through  6-3.   Figure
6-1  shows the  east-west  traverse  (AA1)  and north-south  traverse (BB1)
along  which map  ozone has  been plotted  in  Figures 6-2  and 6-3,
respectively.  It is seen that the  40% HC/20% NC^  curve  exceeds  the 40%
HC curve at  almost every point.  Figure 6-4  plots the regionwide  high
hours  versus  percent reduction of  hydrocarbon only emissions.   It  also
shows how the  LIRAQ output is adjusted  according to the previously
                                 6-8

-------
Figure 6-1
BASELINE MAP AT 1500 PST FOR 1985 EMISSIONS AND JULY 26,1973
METEOROLOGY, SHOWING EAST-WEST SECTION LINE AA' AND NORTH-SOUTH
SECTION LINE BB'
                   7/261985 Baseline QSOR 8/18/77
  4220
  4210
  4200
  4190
  4180 •
  4170 •
  4160 .
  4150  •
  4140  •
  4130  '
 4120
 TIME
 15: 0.
 July 26,1973
                         SURF CONCEN CONTOURS OF
      OZONE
Contour: Minimum 2.0000E-02
      Maximum 1.4000E-01
      Interval 1.0000E-02
Label Scaling 1 .OOOOE+00
                         Scale = 5.0 KM
                                  6-9

-------
 Figure 6-2	^	
 EMISSION SENSITIVITY RESULTS COMPARED BY VARIOUS PERCENT
 REDUCTIONS ALONG SECTION AA' OF FIGURE 6-1
                                              Baseline
    .14
    .12
    .10
    .08
    .06
 Q.
 Q.
    .04
 LLJ
 o
•8
    .02
          July 26,1973 Meteorology
          1985 Emissions
                             -80% HC
      530
550
570
590
610
630
                           UTM E-W GRID
                                             -40% HC
                                             -20% NOx
                                       A'
                                6-10

-------
Figure 6-3	^____________	

EMISSION SENSITIVITY RESULTS COMPARED BY VARIOUS PERCENT
REDUCTIONS ALONG SECTION BB' OF FIGURE 6-1
                              Baseline
  E
  Q.
  Q.
  <
  cc
  UJ
  o
  z
  o
  o
  n
  o
      .06
      .04
.02
                                              July 26,1973 Meteorology


                                              1985 Emissions
                                            -40% HC

                                            -20% NOx
       4120
          4140
4160
4180
4200
4220
        B
                      UTM N-S GRID
                              B'
                               6-11

-------
Figure 6-4
PLOTS OF UNADJUSTED AND ADJUSTED REGIONWIDE HIGH HOUR OZONE AS A
FUNCTION OF % REDUCTIONS OF 1985 HC EMISSIONS
       CL
       Q.
       O
       N
       O
       ^.
       3
       O


       .c
       g>

       I
       i
       O
       f
       IT
       CO
       N
       0>
       .  0.04
    0.03
       a   0.02
O

o:
           0.01
                         O—O : Adjusted High Hour Ozone
                                      : Unadjusted High Hour Ozone
                       EPA Standard  (0.08 ppm)
                                                           Natural Background

                                                           (0.03-0.05 ppm)
              0%

            Baseline
                 20%
40%
60%
80%
               Percent Reduction of 1985 Baseline Hydrocarbon Emissions
                                      6-12

-------
documented worst  case  and validation procedures.

     The conclusions derived from these Initial  runs were:
       o A reduction  of  hydrocarbon  emissions alone  was more
         effective than the combined reduction of hydrocarbons and
         nitric oxide emissions;

       o Nitric  oxide  quenching was significant factor in oxidant
         control;

       o By extrapolating the 1985 result, a 56%  reduction of
         hydrocarbons would attain the standard in 2000.
                                  6-13

-------
                              Chapter 7
DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE CONTROLS

         Air quality improvements can be achieved in many different ways.  A
     first step to  developing alternative control  strategies  is accurately
     documenting existing  and planned programs.  After assessing the impacts
     and effectiveness of ongoing  and currently  scheduled controls, an
     inventory can  be  made of additional measures which need  to be
     considered.  In some cases certain  programs may be considered to be
     already in existence, e.g.,  transit service,  vehicle exhaust emission
     standards.  What  is considered  then is  a  further strengthening or
     expansion of the program in  place, e.g., more  transit  service, lower
     vehicle exhaust emission standards.
     EXISTING AND PLANNED  PROGRAMS
         Many  control  programs  for air pollution currently exist in the San
     Francisco Bay Area.  More are  scheduled to  be implemented in coming
     years.  These  programs are discussed according to program implementing
     authority and/or responsibility in the following paragraphs.
         Stationary Source Emission Controls
         In the San Francisco Bay region, the Bay Area Air Pollution Control
     District (BAAPCD)  has been empowered to  control air  pollution from
     stationary sources.  Since its formation  in  1955, the District has
     developed air  pollution control  programs  for many  categories of
     stationary sources.
        To date the BAAPCD has enacted ten regulations, and  seven of these
     affect stationary  sources.  Some of them directly control  air pollution
     by limiting the emissions of specific pollutants, either on a mass flow
                                   7-1

-------
rate  or  concentration basis.   Other regulations  indirectly control
pollutants  by  curtailing open burning,  new source construction  and
expansion of existing  stationary sources.   Some  sections  deal
specifically with emissions of odorous substances  and others limit  the
density of  smoke which  may  be  emitted to  the atmosphere.   The
regulations of the BAAPCD have been expanded  and  modified through  the
years,  and are  generally  acknowledged to be among  the most stringent in
the  United States.  A  summary  of present BAAPCD's  regulations on
stationary source control  for  oxidants is given  in Table 7-1.  More
detailed information can be obtained from the  BAAPCD.   Additionally, a
number  of Federal and State air pollution control  regulations are also
applicable to stationary  sources control in the  Bay  area.
     Motor Vehicle Emission Controls
     The California  Air  Resources Board  (CARB)  is  the State agency
responsible for coordinating both  State and  Federal air  pollution
control  programs in California.  This responsibility includes regulation
of pollutant emissions from motor  vehicles and coordination of local
programs for stationary source  control.
     Due to  the  severity  of air pollution problems  in  California, the
federal  government gives  the State the option  of enforcing motor vehicle
emission standards which are more  stringent  than federal  emission
standards.   Thus, while the Envionmental Protection  Agency takes primary
responsibility  for motor  vehicle emissions control,  the CARB can and  has
adopted and enforced emission  standards more  stringent than required at
the Federal  level.  This  section summarizes CARB  responsibilities for
mobile  source control.
                              7-2

-------
                             Table 7-1

             Summary of Existing  BAAPCD's Regulations on
                Stationary Source Control for Oxidants


Regulations                           Controlled Source (or Process)

 1.                                   Trash Burning and Dump Fires

 2.                                   Service Stations, Industrial and
                                     Commercial  Sources  and New
                                     Sources (NOX , SOX, Odor,  Lead,
                                     particulates)

 3.                                   Formulation, Storage, Shipment
                                     and  use  of Solvents,  Paint,
                                     Gasoline  and Ink

 5.                                   Definition of  Air  Pollution
                                     Episodes  and Specific Actions

 7.                                   New  or  modified  sources
                                     including Fossil  Fuel  Power
                                     Plants,  Larger  Incinerators,
                                     Cement Plants, Acid Plants,
                                     Refineries, Smelters,  and  Steel
                                     Plants

 9.                                   Emission control  on various
                                     Architectural coatings

10.                                   Emission control pn  volatile
                                     organic compounds emissions from
                                     valves and  flanges
                              7-3

-------
     The  CARB currently has regulations which  control emissions  from
light, medium, and heavy duty gasoline powered vehicles,  diesel powered
trucks and  buses, and motorcycles.   In addition, the CARB  has  in  effect
various regulations and procedures  to ensure that emission standards are
met.   Current  vehicle emission  standards adopted  by  the  CARB  and
recently enacted federal statues  are presented in the AQMP for the Bay
Area.
     Transportation Controls
     A number of  transportation control projects are currently operating
in the San  Francisco Bay Area.  Some were  required as elements  of the
transportation control  plan,  while  others are the result of regional
transportation  planning.  These transportation controls are summarized
in Table 7-2
    The experience with transportation programs has been  valuabe.   The
carpool  incentives seem  to  be successful.  The transit additions are
also rather significant,  but the problems  of  financing  are becoming
critical.   Despite  these  incentives,  auto travel has not  really
decreased.   This  would indicate that some combination of auto  restraints
and more transit/carpool incentives  is needed.
     Land Use Management/Development Controls
     This  term  as  traditionally  used  is  a  misnomer since measures
dealing with land use,  or land development,  include a  wide  array of
non-regulatory devices from the  general plan of cities and counties to
the service commitments of special  districts.  The more current and more
widely used term  "growth management" also means many different things in
many  different jurisdictions.   Hence,  in  the ABAG Environmental
Management Plan  we use the  terms  "development policy" or "development
                               7-4

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                           Table 7-2

        Summary of Current  Transportation Control Measures
                  In  the  San  Francisco Bay Area.
o  Ramp and Mainline Metering  to  improve traffic flow -  Meters are
   operating on segments of 1-580,  1-280, Rt. 101, Rt. 17 and Bay
   Bridge.

o  Preferential  Bus/Carpool  Lanes  on Freeways (Rt. 101, Rt. 280, Rt.
   580) and on certain streets in  San  Francisco.

o  Bridge Toll Incentives  (Bay Bridge,  San Mateo - Hayward and
   Dumbarton Bridges, and  Golden Gate  Bridge).

o  Reyionwide Carpool and  Vanpool  Matching Program.

o  Improvement of Regional  Transit Service.

o  Preferential  Parking for Carpooling Vehicles.
                             7-5

-------
strategy" to signify the land development objective sought, and the  term
"policy  instruments" to mean the measure or tools  of implementation.
     There  are various  land use  management and  development policies
currently  existing in the San Francisco Bay Area.  They can be broadly
grouped  into three categories:   Development supporting, development
constraining, and neutral or mixed policies. Table 7-3 presents a  list
of land  use development  policies in effect in the Bay Area in 1975.
Based on the  number of jurisdictions using them, the following general
conclusions are noted:
   o  Among development supporting  instruments,  assessment
      districts, redevelopment  programs, and capital improvement
      programs for transportation,  sewer, and  water systems  are
      the  most  common.  Redevelopment incentives such  as  tax
      incentives or  other special land reserves with service
      commitments  are relatively  rare but do exist as  precedents
      for more widespread application in the region.
   o  Among development constraining  instruments,  open space
      zoning  (and  easements),  public  land acquisition,  sewer
      connection limits and zoning  moratoria are most prevalent;
      numerically  transportation access limits, building permit
      moratoria,  and prime agricultural land  preserves  are of
      secondary importance.
   o  In the category of instruments that can be used to constrain
      _o_r support  development,  the  Local Agency Formation
      Commission (LAFCO) spheres  of influence dominate.
INVENTORY OF OPTIONS  (OR CANDIDATE  CONTROL MEASURES)
     Because  so many possibilities exist  for consideration, the  AQMP
Joint Technical  Staff and later  the  AQMP Advisory Committee were
involved  in  screening the control  options which are developed.   The
screening process led to a more manageable number  of options which  were
evaluated further by the AQMP Joint Technical Staff.
     Table  7-4 lists the inventory of air  pollution  control measures
considered  in  developing the AQMP.  The  inventory  is organized according
to the participating agencies which prepared the component parts.
                              7-6

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                               *f

Table 7-3.Summary of Land Development Policies In Effect - Bay Region 1975
Land Development Policy Instruments
(In rank order by frequency reglonwlde
within group)
                                          ,  Number of Jurisdictions Using
                                         TotalPrior to  1970 toExpect
                                         Active      1970      1975    by 1977
Group 1 Supporting Development
Assessment (Improvement) Districts
Public Assisted Housing Programs
Redevelopment Programs
Transportation Extension C.I. P.
Sewer Extension Capital Improvement Program
Public Housing Programs
Water Extension Capital Improvement Program
Low Income Housing Program
Special Service Commitments
Sale of Public Land
Indus trial /Commercial Land Reserve (other
than zoning)
Group 2 Neutral or Mixed (used to support or
Development)
City Spheres of Influence (by LAFCO)
Development Fees
User Charges
Cluster Zoning
SI ope/ Density Zoning
Plan Conformance Rezonlng
Mass "Up" or "Down" Zoning
Development Rights-Purchase or Transfer
Land Banking
Development Sequence Zoning
"Floating Zones"
Group 3 Constraining Development
Open Space Zoning
Open Space Easements
Zoning Moratorium
Sewer Connection Limits
Land Acquisition for Public Use
Prime Agricultural Land Preserves
Building Permit Moratorium
Watershed Protection Program
Transportation Access Limits
Water Connection Limits
Other Utility Connection Moratorium
Sllfce: preliminary tabulations ABAC Local

34
25
15
21
14
9
8
8
6
6

0

30
12
7
16
10
6
8
3
5
5

0

4
13
8
5
4
3
0
5
1
1

0

1
2
8
4
5
1
1
6
2
0

3
constrain

39
37
32
28
21
19
U
8
3
4
3

26
23
18
20
20
11
11
13
12
7
7
Policy

12
27
27
21
6
1
1
5
-
4
3

5
5
8
9
12
5
0
8
7
4
7
Survey,

27
10
5
7
15
18
10
3
3
0
0

21
18
10
11
8
6
11
5
5
3
0
8/15/76.

0
1
0
3
6
14
8
4
2
4
3

8
4
5
3
1
1
0
1
2
3
0
65 cities
 rel
orted of 76 responding.   Special  districts  not'Included.
                                    7-7

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                              Table 7-4.   Inventory  of Air Pollution Control  Measures
1.   Require the use of high solid
     coatings where practical.
2.   Require the use of water based
     coatings where practical.
3.   Adopt the CAR6 standards for
     organic liquid storage.
4.   Adopt closed system organic
     liquid storage with vapor re-
     covery.
5.   Require vapor recovery on small
     solvent users.
6.   Adopt organic solvent regulation
     developed by the  CARS Organic
     Sol Ids Committee.
7.   Enact a new maximum S02 emission
     limit of  300 ppm.
8.   Require reduced sulfur content
     In fuels  to  .025%.
9.   Adopt NOX controls  for non-
     highway and construction equip-
     ment.
10.   Adopt NOX limits  for  all new
     boilers.
11.   Adopt lower participate  loading
      requirement -  0.05  to 0.1 grains/
      SCFM.
12.    Adopt  lower process weight  al-
      lowable  scale.
13.    Adopt  lower  process weight  maxi-
      mum allowable  scale.
14.    Adopt  best  available  control
      technology  (BACT) regulation
      for existing  sources  with  a
      time scale  for compliance.
15.    Adopt BACT  regulation for  all
      sources  1n  Heu of emission
      concentration  limits.
16.    Adopt BACT  regulation for  all
      sources  in  addition to  emission
      concentration  limits.
17.    Adopt a modern process  tech-
      nology rule aimed at  promoting
      modernization  of the  areawlde
      plant.   This  might, for in-
      stance,  suspend a BACT  rule for
      an agreement to modernize  a
      plant with  BACT included in
      modernized  version.  The intent
      of such  a regulation  would  be
      to encourage modernization  of
      old plants  with new plants
      having  improved pollution  con-
      trol technology.
  I.    Stationary Sources

18.    Extentlon of current BAAPCO re-
    '  quirements to smaller opera-
      tions, I.e., fewer exemptions.
19,    New Source Review (NSR) - con-
      tinue present rule.
20.    New Source Review - Adopt 1001
      off-set policy.
21.    New Source Review - Adopt 110%
      off-set policy.
22.    New Source Review - Adopt a
      sliding scale for emission off-
      set.
23.    NSR Options 20, 21 or 22 with a
      limited area for emission off-
      set.
24.    NSR Options 20, 21 or 22 with
      Inter-pollutant emission off-
      set.
25.    NSR Options 20, 21 or 22 with
      no Inter-pollutant off-set or
      inter-pollutant off-set governed
      by location, etc.
26.    NSR Options 20-25 qualified so
      that no credit 1s allowed for
      emissions that are in excess of
      other limitations.
27.    NSR Options 20-25 with arrange-
      ment for off-set banking, allow-
      ing a prospective new source
      credit for emission reduction
      off-set achieved beyond that re-
      quired by existing regulations.
28.    Adopt regulations to promote in-
      dustrial energy conservation.

29.    Plant operation scheduling:

      a)   Seasonal scheduling to
           reduce polluting opera-
           tions during critical
           weeks or months as de-
           termined by meteorology.

      b)   Scheduling maintenance
           down time and vacations,
           possibly short downs, to
           reduce pollutant load at
           critical times.

      c)   Interruptable operation
           dependent upon air quality
           conditions.
                                          d)   Stagger operations  between
                                               plants to  spread  operation
                                               over seven days Instead  of
                                               five.  Assign  plants  a 5
                                               day week starting on  any-
                                               one of the seven  days,
                                               possibly with  some  on 4
                                               day 10-hour operation.

                                          e)   Stagger work hours.   For
                                               Instance,  run  coating
                                               lines only between  4  PH
                                               and midnight Instead  of
                                               7 AM to 3  PM.

                                          f)   Schedule reduced  work days
                                               during the smog season
                                               with or without longer
                                               days during less  critical
                                               seasons.   Rationing the
                                               pollution  absorbing ca-
                                               pacity.
                                    30.   An air monitoring and meteoro-
                                          logical  analysis  to Identify
                                          and recommend mitigation mea-
                                          sures,  for certain localized
                                          problems.
                                    31.   Adopt partlculate regulation
                                          based on particle size.
                                    32.   Replace throw-away container
                                          with re-usable containers.
                                    33.   Burn solid  waste near point of
                                          generation,  to reduce long
                                          hauls.
                                    34.   Apply 1309  with modified  trade-
                                          off of  1311  and 1311-2  clearly
                                          described  as  an option.
                                    35.   Requiring  some sort of  retro-
                                          fitting on  older plants.  Ap-
                                          ply BACT to newer plants
                                          through permit system.
                                    36.   Penalty charge or tax based on
                                          amount  of  emission to encourage
                                          reduction.
                                    37.   Lowering the  reid vapor pres-
                                          sure of gasoline to  reduce
                                          hydrocarbon  emissions from
                                          storage, handling and use of
                                          motor vehicle  grade  gasoline.
                                                II.  Mobile Sources
 1.    Implement an  evaporative  emis-
      sions retrofit  program  for  all
      vehicles.
 2.    Implement a catalytic retrofit
      program for past-71' vehicles
      able to operate on  unleaded
      gasoline.
 3.    Adopt more stringent applica-
      tion of compliance  procedures.
6.
                                          7.
Adopt more comprehensive new
and used motor vehicle surveil-
lance program.
Adopt a mandatory vehicle In-
spection and maintenance pro-
gram for light and heavy duty
vehicles.
Adopt more stringent evapor-
ative emission standards.
Implement a heavy duty gasoline
exhaust emission retrofit pro-
gram.
 8.    Adopt more stringent exhaust
      emission standards for new light
      and heavy duty vehicles.
 9.    Promote the use of new or modi-
      fied fuels.
10.    Promote the use of alternative
      power sources.
11.    Establish emission standards for
      other mobile sources such as
      construction equipment, locomo-
      tives, ships, or recreational
      vehicles.
                                                       7-8

-------
                                         III. Transportation Controls
1.   Measures to Improve Traffic
     Operations

     A.   Improve Traffic Flow

          1)   Computerized traffic
                 control
          2}   Ramp Metering
          3)   Traffic engineering
                 Improvements
          4)   Off-street freight
                 loading

     B.   Reduce peak-period traffic
          volumes

          1)   Staggered work hours
          2)   Four day work week
          3)   Off-peak freight de-
                 livery

2.   Measures to Reduce Vehicle Use

     A.   Restrict Vehicle Ownership

          1)   Additional license fee
          2)   Registration limits
  B.   Management of Auto Access

       1)   Better enforcement of
              parking regulations
       2)   Limit on number of
              parking spaces
       3)   On-street parking pro-
              hibited during peak
              hours
            Area 11cent*
            Auto-free zones
            Gas rationing

  C.   Increase Cost of Auto Use
3.
Measures to Encourage Alternative
Model of Travel

A.   Increase Transit Rldershlp

     1)   Additional transit ser-
            vice
     2    Fare reductions
     3    Improved comfort
     4    Bus and carpool lanes
            Road pricing
            Increased parking costs
            Parking fee for shopper
            Eliminate free employee
              parking
            Increased gas tax
            Increased tolls
            "Smog charges"
     B.

     C.

     D.
  D.   Reduce the Need to Travel

       1)   Communications substi-
              tutes
       2)   Goods movement consol-
              idation
     E.
     Encourage Pedestrian Mode

     Encourage Bicycle Mode

     Encourage R1de Sharing

     1)

     2)
          3)

          4)
Toll reduction for
  carpools
Preferential parking
  and carpools
Carpool matching In-
  formation
Assist vanpool formation
     Promote Para-Transit
     Alternatives
                                             IV.  Land Use Management/
                                                  Development Controls
 More effective management of all five  2.
 major aspects of land development
 through coordinated action by cities,
 counties, special districts, or re-
 gional and State agencies to reduce
 the magnitude and frequency of auto
 travel:

 1.   Timing - expand the presently     3.
      very limited application of
      timing controls such as growth
      sequence zoning, building per-
      mit quotas, staging of sewer
      and water Infrastructure and
      plant capabilities, etc.
Quanfl ty - expand the presently       4.
scattered application of quan-
titative controls on development
such as performance standard
zoning and limited sewer and
water Infrastructure and plant
capacities.

Location - Improve the presently
Inconsistent application of
controls on the location pf de-       S.
velopment such as coordinated
management of Infrastructure
location, annexations, public
land acquisition, agricultural
preserves, hillside and soil
conservation, and development
moratorla.
     Density  -  Encourage  transit usage
     and other  non-auto modes with
     coordinated  density  policies among
     local jurisdictions  through the
     application  of  Innovative density
     zoning mechanisms  (slope density,
     building height regulations, etc.)
     fully coordinated with service
     capacities and  commitments.

     Type - Reduce home-to-work & home-
     to-non-work  travel by encouraging
     more land  use mix, especially in
     terms of housing/Jobs balance.
                                                         7-9

-------
     The control measures for stationary and mobile  sources  have



traditionally  been direct controls.   As  such they can be specified  quite



precisely.  Many of the transportation controls and land use management



measures are  indirect controls.   Thus, they tend to be described in more



general  terms.  This  is  especially  true  for  the land  use management



actions  proposed.  Later the basic  objectives of the land use management



program  was presented.  Simply stated the  objective was  to reduce the



number  and  length of automobile  trips  and to increase transit use  in



order to decrease the amount of regional automobile travel.  This would



be  accomplished by achieving more  compact development in the region  by



the year 2000.  Recommendations were presented for policies and actions



which might  begin to achieve  these objectives.  Clearly there may  be



other policies and actions which can achieve the stated objectives.



PROCESS  FOR SCREENING THE OPTIONS



     Having  developed  an inventory of about 100  control measures



options,  the AQMP Joint Technical  Staff proceeded to screen the options



down to  a more manageable size.   In  conducting the screenings, the  AQMP



Joint Technical Staff attempted to  avoid political judgments regarding a



measure's implementabil ity.  The list of control  options was screened



primarily on  the basis of technical  effectiveness.  Gas rationing serves



as a good example.  Nobody would debate  that gas rationing could be  an



effective way of controlling  air  pollution.   The debates  about gas



rationing center on its  public and  political  acceptability and



implementabil ity.   The AQMP  Advisory  Commitee argued over whether gas



rationing should or  should not be  screened  out.  In  the end it was
                              7-10

-------
included  in  the screened options because it is technically effective.
EMTF  and the  public  could  judge its political merits and public
acceptability.
     The  list of  screened  options was presented to EMTF in June, 1977
during a  presentation of alternative air quality strategies.  At that
meeting  EMTF  approved  the  screened listing of control measures for use
in developing  alternative air quality  strategies.   These control
measures were  to be grouped  into  a  series  of  control  strategies for
testing of their air quality effects.
OPTIONS CONSIDERED BUT NOT INCLUDED  IN THE PLAN
     Using the screened  inventory of control measures  as a starting
point, the  AQMP  Joint Technical  Staff  analyzed the remaining control
options further.  Since  it was  clear by now that the focus for this plan
was meeting  the oxidant  standard, control  measures for particulate, SOx,
CO and NOx,  were eliminated  (for consideration at a future  time).  For
example, in some of the earlier progress reports, several measures were
included  to  control sulfur dioxide emissions.  Since the  more detailed
evaluation  of  the sulfur  dioxide  problem is proposed for the planning
process,  these measures  were dropped from this current plan.  Another
example  of  control  measures  temporarily deferred is the use of best
available control  technology for  sulfur dioxide  and  particulate
controls.   The revised  best  available control technology proposal
concentrates on  reducing hydrocarbon  emissions  from  a number  of
categories.
                              7-11

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                         Chapter 8
CONTROL STRATEGY ANALYSIS AND
                   ASSESSMENT

    The effectiveness of alternative control strategies  in  improving
air quality was analyzed by using  a  series of computer-based models.
These models have been briefly described previously:
      o The ABAG Series 3 population,  housing,  employment and
        land use modeling system.
      o The MTC travel demand models.
      o The ABAG vehicle emissions model.
      o The  Livermore  Regional  Air Quality Model  (LIRAQ)
        maintained by the BAAPCD.

    These models were used  in three distinct applications.  First they
were used to  project future air quality assuming  a continuation  of
existing regional  growth trends  and  existing control  programs.  The
results of this  "baseline" projection were previously described.
    Second,  using the baseline projections  as a starting point,  an
emissions sensitivity  analysis was conducted to  determine  the range  of
emissions levels  necessary to meet the federal oxidant standard.  The
purpose of this  exercise was  to  provide information on  the  design  of
control strategies to  meet the standard.
    Third,  a series of strategy cases were  developed  from the
alternative control measures and tested through the  modeling  system for
their effectiveness in improving air quality.
                              8-1

-------
DETERMINING THE RANGE  OF  EMISSION REDUCTIONS NECESSARY TO  MEET THE

OXIDANT STANDARD



     To define the  emission reductions  needed to meet  the oxidant

standard,  the baseline emission levels were systematically  reduced  and

analyzed by the LIRAQ model.  The results  of this sensitivity analysis

(described  in  Chapter 6) showed that:


      o  reduction of hydrocarbon  emissions alone is more
         effective than joint reduction of hydrocarbon and nitric
         oxide emissions, for the percentages examined,

       o "Nitric oxide  quenching" is a  likely explanation for this
         result,

       o a  43% reduction of hydrocarbon emissions will  attain  the
         standard  in 1985,*

       o by extrapolation of this 1985  result*, a 56% reduction of
         hydrocarbon emissions will  attain the  standard in 2000.


     The conclusion  should not be reached  that  maximizing  nitric oxide

emissions  controls, to take advantage of nitric oxide quenching,  is  a

viable strategy, for two reasons:
       o a California standard presently exists  for one hourly
         average nitrogen  dioxide, which  is  exceeded in  the
         region,

       o the EPA  is  presently examining the  criteria for a one to
         three  hourly average nitrogen  dioxide standard, in
         addition to the  present annual  average standard  for
         nitrogen dioxide.   EPA could  issue such a standard in
         1980.
*  The calculation  is to apply the 43% reduction  to  total  1985 organic
   emissions.   This  leaves 1985 total  organic  emissions at approximately
   450 tons/day.   If a 56% reduction is applied  to  total  2000 organic
   emissions,  the  same remainder is obtained, 450 tons/day.   Attainment
   dates mandated  by the Clean Air Act Amendments of  1977  are 1982 and
   1987;  1985  and  2000 were selected for attainment analysis before the
   passage of  the  1977 amendments.  Interpolation of 1985 result to 1982
   has been made  in  the recently revised AQMP.
                               8-2

-------
APPLICATION OF  THE AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM

     The effectiveness of each of the  strategies was more precisely

determined  by applying the air quality modeling system.  Each measure in

the strategy was translated into the appropriate variable and parameter

values or into  an adjustment of the emissions  inventory.   The methods

for doing this  are described below.


       o Technological Controls.  Technological  controls were
         tested with  relative ease because they did  not involve
         significant changes in human  activities.  Rather,  they
         involved the  implementation of improved techniques for
         reducing the pollutant emissions resulting from  normal
         human  activities.   Such emission  reductions  were
         accounted for by applying  a percentage  reduction  factor
         to the "emission  factors" used in the emissions models.
         For example, requiring even  more stringent  control  of
         motor  vehicle emissions  than currently required  was
         reflected in future motor  vehicle emission factors.  This
         served  as input  to  the  emissions calculations which
         subsequently were input  to the air  quality models.
         Regulations  for  controlling volatile organic compounds*
         or for  implementing combustion modifications for reducing
         nitrogen oxide emission from small industrial  and utility
         boilers were handled similarly.

       o Transportation Controls.  Transportation  controls  were
         tested  through  the  travel  demand  modeling system.
         Depending on the  specific  nature  of .the  controls,
         different approaches to  simulating  their effects were
         taken.  For example, the effects of a general  regionwide
         improvement  in transit  service were tested  by changing
         the transit travel  time or "wait time"  in the  modal split
         model.  This produced an estimate of the percent of total
         trips diverted to transit  and produced a net decrease in
         highway network traffic.   Testing service improvements in
         specific areas involved changing the transit  network to
         reflect the improvements*  Cost incentives/disincentives
         such as  gasoline  tax  or  increased parking  costs  were
         simulated in the modal  split model.
   "EPA's Recommended Policy on Control of Volatile Organic Compounds"
   was published on July 8, 1979 (42 FR 3534)
                              8-3

-------
         Land Use Controls. The  effectiveness of individual  land use
         control mechanisms  could  not be tested by the  forecasting
         system  in a straightforward manner.   What could  be  tested were
         the ultimate objectives of  land use control  measures.  For
         example, one policy goal of land use  control  for improving air
         quality was to halt the outward spread of the metropolitan area
         boundaries and redirect future growth  into existing  urbanized
         portions  of the  region.   The effectiveness  of  specific
         mechanisms or tools  which  were employed to accomplish this
         result (e.g., tax incentives/disincentives,  public  facility
         restrictions,  changes in  general  plans and/or  zoning
         ordinances) could not be  tested by the forecasting system.
         Instead,  the system was  used to  test the  effect of
         accomplishing  that "compact development"  policy  goal  on
         regional  air quality.  The  land use policy goal in effect
         became an assumption for a subsequent reiteration of  the ABAG
         forecasts.  The results of  these  forecasts were  then fed
         through the modeling  sequence  to produce estimates  of resulting
         air quality.  The information thus obtained was  used  to
         evaluate the air quality effects of  a more compact development
         pattern in the region.

         Land use controls or objectives were the  most difficult and
         time-consuming  to forecast.   This  was  due not  only to the
         difficulties in developing  clear statements  of the policy
         goals,  but also   the  fact that changes in the ABAG  demographic
         forecasts necessitated additional  runs of the subsequent  travel
         demand, emissions, and air quality models.
     A summary of the control  strategies tested with the modeling system

 is presented  in Table 8-1.   The schematic flow diagram  of  the  modeling

 system  and  how  alternative  strategies  or  sensitivity analyses were

 conducted is  shown in Figure 8-1.



 CONTROL  STRATEGY EFFECTIVENESS

     The main results of the strategy analysis are summarized  in  Table

 8-2.  The table  indicates  that substantial  improvements in  air quality

 can be made  through the use  of  source control  technology.   It  also

 indicates that source control  technology alone will  not be  sufficient to

meet the .08 ppm Federal  oxidant standard.  The transportation  and  land

 use management  strategy,  although relatively ineffective in  the short
                              8-4

-------
                               Table 8-1.  Summary of Control Strategies Tested
MAXIMUM TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY

  o  Use paints and other coatings
     that are water based and/or
     have a high solids content.

  o  Use closed systems for stor-
     age and transfer of organic
     liquids.

  o  Use best available control
     technology (BACT) on new and
     existing sources of hydro-
     carbon emissions.

  o  Adopt more stringent vehicle
     (light & heavy duty) exhaust
   -emission standards.
                            ;. '&?>:?
  o  Implement mandatory annual
     Inspection and maintenance
     program for light and heavy
     duty vehicles.

  o  Require exhaust control de-
     vices on existing heavy duty
     gasoline trucks.
TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE
    MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

  o  Increase tolls on bridges.

  o  Implement regional parking
     strategy to discourage pri-
     vate auto use and encourage
     high-occupancy auto use

       -  parking tax
       -  parking fees at large
          shopping centers
       -  preferential parking
          for carpools, vanpools

  o  Provide additional transit
     service.

  o  Increase bus/carpool lanes
     and ramp metering.

  o  Implement an auto control zone
     in San Francisco central busi-
     ness district to reduce traffic.

  o  Provide more ride sharing ser-
     vices such as jitneys and van-
     pools.

  o  Develop more extensive bicycle
     systems.

  o  Achieve more compact develop-
     ment throughout the region by
     the year 2000.
COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY

  o  By 1985, the comprehensive
     strategy includes:  all  of
     the technological control
     measures except for more
     stringent vehicle exhaust
     emission standards; and  all
     of the land use/transporta-
     tion measures.   The effects
     of compact development were
     not included in the analysis
     for 1985 since  the short
     time frame was  insufficient
     for achieving significant
     results.

  o  By 2000,  the comprehensive
     strategy  includes:  all  of
     the technological  control
     measures  except for the  ex-
     haust control devices  on
     existing  heavy  duty gaso-
     line trucks  (this  measure
     provides  short  term bene-
     fits only);  and all  of the
     land use/transportation
     measures.

-------
                                                       Figure 8-1
                                      Control  strategy testing with
                                      the AQMP Modeling  System
 The AQMP Modeling System


ABAC
Local
Policy
Survey

\
/*

1

^
ABAC
Series 10
population,
employment,
&
land use
forecasts
71 >
^
N
/
MTC
travel
demand
forecasts
A *
N.
/
Stationary
and
mobile
source
emissions
inventories
'•
V
s
Air
quality
model.
(LIRAQ)
^

00
I
cr>
    Alternative
     control
    strategies
 Long
 term
 transit
 service
improve
 merits
   Short
   term
transportation
  control
   plan
Emissions
sensitivity
 analysis
technological
improvements
technological
improvements
7
\ /
^r ?
^ ^
^ 7
^r 7

Candidate control measures

-------
oo
 i
                                                        Table 8-2.   Effectiveness of Alternative Control  Strategies
                   Strategy
1985
2000

Baseline ( do-nothing)*
Maximum Technology
Transportation and
Land Use Management
Comprehensive Strategy*
Hydrocarbon Emission Estimated Reglonwlde
Reduction Potential High Hour Oxldant
Level (ppm) *
(797 tons/day) .19ppm
emitted
- 280 tons/day .lOppm
- 7 tons/day not estimated
- 286 tons/day .lOppm
Estimated No. of
Annual Violations
of the 1-Hour .08 Hydrocarbon Emission Estimated Reglonwlde
ppm Federal 0x1- Reduction Potential High Hour Oxldant
dant Standard Level (ppm) *
130 (1,058 tons/day)
emitted
3 -441 tons/day
- 84 tons/day with
slow growth
3 - 513 tons/day with
slow growth
.24ppm
.13ppm
.23pp»
.12pp.
Estimated No. of
Annual Violations
of the 1-Hour .08
ppm Federal Oxl-
dant Standard
275
16
220
11
              •Does not assume New Source Review Regulation.


              *These are extrapolated from LIRAQ modeling results.

-------
term,  is  shown to become increasingly effective with time.  The primary
value of  the transportation  and land use management strategy is that it
helps  in  maintaining the air  quality improvements  achieved through  the
application  of  technology.   Under the maximum technology strategy,  air
quality  deteriorates significantly  between 1985 and  2000  despite
technology  advances.   The  comprehensive  strategy reduces this
deterioration, but  is  still  not  enough to meet the  Federal oxidant
standard.
     As previously discussed,  the Federal oxidant standard upon which
this  strategy was based is a  one hour standard, not to be exceeded more
than once per year.  Table  8-2  indicates that  if the  comprehensive
strategy  is  implemented, the number of times  the standard would be
exceeded drops to approximately  3 in 1985 and  11 in  the year 2000.
These estimates are  necessarily approximate due to the natural  variation
in meteorological conditions  from year to year.  The California standard
for oxidants,  at .10 ppm for one hour, would be met in 1985 under  the
comprehensive  strategy,  but would be violated  in the year 2000.  Figures
8-2 to  8-8 are examples of LIRAQ results for  each of the strategy cases
summarized in Table 8-2.
     An additional  analysis was  conducted  to test the effects of  the
comprehensive  strategy on the three  northermost  counties  in  the
region--Napa,  Sonoma,  and Solano.   A comparison of expected oxidant
levels on  the LIRAQ  prototype day  in these counties  is presented  in
Table 8-3 for  both baseline conditions and under the  comprehensive
strategy.  The table clearly  shows a substantial improvement in oxidant
levels will  occur  in these  northern  counties under the comprehensive
strategy.  Based on  the worst case estimates and number of expected
                              8-8

-------
Figure 8-2  Example LIRAQ Results - 1985 Control  Strategy Analysis

           (Maximum Technological Improvements Only)
                    •VALLEJO
3iv?rv
FVV ^  C BERKELEY

"*  $J> '    \
*t~**\**fC  * OAKLAND
                                     SOLANO
                                 • CONCORD

                                           CONTA
                                • WALNUT        	
                                  CREEK
           COST
              \

*>

 \
                              • HAYWARD
                                 •
                                 SUNNYVALE
                                          • SAN
 Notes: 1) July 26, 1973 Prototype Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
       2) Values unconnected for worst case conditions
       3) Emission reductions taken from 1985 baseline inventory
                           8-9

-------
Figure 8-3  Example LIRAQ Results -  1985 Control  Strategy Analysis
            (Comprehensive Strategy  including Additional  NOX Controls)
   Notes:  1)  July  26,  1973  Prototype Meteorology  (1500 Hours
          2)  Values uncorrected  for worst case conditions
          3)  Emission  reductions taken  from  1985  baseline  inventory
                                8-10

-------
       Figure 8-4  Example LIRAQ Results - 1985 Control Strategy Analysis

                   (Comprehensive Strategy without Additional NOX Controls)
NOVATO.
                              •VALUE jo
                          SOLANO
                  RICHMOND
                           BERKELEY
                            •
                      • CONCORD
                                            • WALNUT
                                              CREEK
                                 CONTA
                                   COSTA
                                 ^
                                   %
                            •OAKLAND '«.	
                                             V
  SAM
             • DALY
              CITY
   \
• HAYWARD
                            •»
                               \
                     SAN •
                     MATEO
                                \

                         FREMONT
                          •
                              REDWOOD
                               CITY   ,
           (' PALO
SAN       J ALTO

  MATED   )

          (
                                             SUNNYVALE
                                                        .04
                                                        • SAN JOSE
                                                                    CLARA
          Notes:  1) July 26, 1973 Prototype Meteorology  (1500 Hours PST)
                 2) Values uncorrected for worst  case  condition^
                 3) Emission reductions taken  from 1985  inventory
                                        8-11

-------
Figure 8-5  Example LIRAQ Results - 2000 Control Strategy Analysis
            (Baseline Projection Assuming Slower Population Growth Rate)
    Notes:  1}  July 26,  1973 Prototype  Meteorology  (1500  Hours  PST)
           2)  Values  uncorrected  for worst  case  conditions
           3)  Emission  reductions  taken  from  2000  baseline  inventory
                               8-12

-------
       Figure  8-6  Example LIRAQ Results - 2000 Control Strategy  Analysis

                    (Transportation Controls and Land  Use  Management Only)
NOVATO.
  MARIN
                                        .04
                               VALLEJO
                       SOLANO
                                       .06
                                              • CONCORD
                                            • WALNUT
                                              CREEK
                           BERKELEY
                               CONTA
                                COSTA
                                 S
                                   i
                             •OAKLAND*^*.	

             • DALY
              CITY
\
               • HAY WARD
                            ^
                              \
                     SAN
                     MATED
                                 \
                                   ^
                  HALF
                 • MOON
                  BAY
                              REDWOOD
     CITY
        «*'
                        SAN
        \
PALO
ALTO

                                              SUNNYVALE

                                                        • SAN
         Notes: 1) July 26, 1973 Prototype  Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
                2) Values uncorrected  for worst case conditions
                3) Emission reductions  taken  from 2000 baseline inventory
                                       8-13

-------
Figure 8-7  Example LIRAQ Results - 2000 Control Strategy Analysis

            (Maximum Technological Controls Only)
 Notes: 1) July 26, k!973 Prototyoe Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
        2) Values uncorrected for worst case conditions
        3) Emission reductions taken from 2000 baseline inventory
                               8-14

-------
     Figure 8-8   Example LIRAQ Results - 2000 Control Strategy Analysis

                  (Comprehensive Strategy without Additional NOx Controls)
 MARIN
SAN RAFAEL*
                         BERKELEY
                                            • CONCORD
                                           • WALNUT
                                             CREEK
                                             CONTA
                                               COSTA

   v N^
       *£.v";
    , v. „
                     s
                •OAKLAND^*	.	

 SAK

                                                             '°«*v  I
• DALY
 CITY
\  ^
 \

;\
                                        • HAYWARD
                                  \
                                    FREMONT
                                     •
                 HALF
                • MOON
                 BAY
                 REDWOOD
                   CITY --
                                                        ./—
                      SAN
                        MATEO
                                            SUNNYVALE
                                                      • SAN JOSE
                                                                             '.04


       Notes:  1)  July  26,  1973 Prototype Meteorology (1500 Hours PST)
               2)  Values  uncorrected for worst case conditions
               3)  Emission  reductions taken from 2000 baseline inventory
                                     8-15

-------
Table 8-3.  LIRAQ Baseline and Comprehensive Strategy
            Analysis for the North Bay (2000)
                      Baseline
Comprehensive
  Strategy
Location of North Regional
High Hour Ozone
North Regional High
Hour (ppm)
Monitoring Station with
Highest Ozone
Ozone at Highest
Station (ppm)
Projected Ozone Maximum
at Individual Stations (ppm)
San Francisco
Santa Rosa
San Rafael
Petal uma
Napa
Sonoma County Airport
Pitts burg
Hamilton Air Force Base
Napa County Airport
Concord
Richmond
Travis Air Force Base
Angel Island
Point Bonita
Fairfield
12 km. ESE
Travis AFB
.08
Napa Airport
.07
.02
.04
.03
.04
.07
.03
.05
.03
.07
.06
.04
.07
.04
.04
.06
14 km. ESE
Travis AFB
.06
Travis AFB
.06
.02
.04
.03
.03
.05
.03
.05
.03
.05
.04
.03
.06
.03
.03
.05
                      3-16

-------
violations  for  the  region previously  summarized in Table 8-2,  it is
expected  that the oxidant  standard will also  be  met in the northern
counties under  the  comprehensive strategy.

COSTS OF PROPOSED STRATEGIES
     As par.t of  the  overall assessment of  alternative strategies,
estimates  of direct  program costs were made.   In each of the major
control  areas, direct  costs (including  capital,  operating  and
maintenance) were analyzed and converted into equivalent annual costs.
The cost analyses of various control  programs are described in detail in
AQMP  and its technical  appendices (8-1, 8-2), the following summarizes
the analyses results.
     Stationary Source Control Costs
     The major costs  for additional  stationary source controls would be
for meeting  best available control  technology requirements.   It is
estimated this would  cost about $30 million annually.  Most  costs would
be borne by private industry for capital  outlays and higher operating
and maintenance costs.   An increase in public sector expenditures is
also estimated  for  increased administrative and regulatory costs.  These
latter costs are  estimated to be about two percent (or approximately
$600,000) of the  costs of this program.
     For private industry,  slightly more th*n half  of the costs are
increased operating and maintenance expenses, which are recurring  costs.
The capital outlay requirements of approximately a half billion  dollars
would be expended in the  early 1980's if  the  plan were carried out as
scheduled.
                                8-17

-------
      No  direct costs are associated with  continued implementation of
the New  Source  Review rule.   Since  this regulation has  been  in effect
for a  number of years,  the administrative and regulatory  costs are
already  included in the budget  by  the Bay Area Air Pollution Control
District. Any of the options currently being considered  to modify the
New Source Review rule are estimated to cost about the same to  carry out
as the existing rule.
     Mobile  Source Control Costs
     The annualized costs for additional  mobile  source controls is
approximately  $50  million.   These  costs would  pay for  three  very
different  programs.  About  half of  the $50 million is  estimated  to be
the added per  vehicle costs  for cars and  trucks which meet  more
stringent exhaust emissions standards.  The additional  cost per vehicle
would likely range between $200 and $400, assuming that  a new engine
technology  is  used to meet  both the more stringent emission  standards
and Federal  fuel  economy standards. It has been assumed  that  these cars
would be produced for all of California at a minimum, and possibly in a
few other states  with severe air pollution.
     The vehicle  inspection and maintenance program would  cost  about $20
million annually.  This cost includes  a $5 per vehicle inspection fee
and an  average repair cost of $45 per vehicle, both paid  by the vehicle
owner.  The  $5 inspection fee will  cover the  costs of acquiring  land,
constructing inspection  facilities, equipment,  and operation of the
facilities.  An  additional  aspect  of the program would be that  no
vehicle owner would  be required to spend more than a given amount (e.g.,
$75) on repairs related to emission control.
                                8-18

-------
     The retrofit of heavy-duty gasoline  powered trucks with  exhaust
catalysts  is estimated to cost $340  per vehicle, or a  total annualized
expenditure of $1.5 million for the region.  This cost includes a 50,000
                       • 1.               '               ~J
mile replacement warranty.   The slight increase in operating cost due to
the use of  unleaded gasoline will  be offset by a slight improvement in
fuel economy.
     Land Use and Transportation Control Costs
     Costs  associated  with  the   land  use and transportation
recommendations are more complex than  the costs for stationary and motor
vehicle emission controls.   In many cases a  redistribution of money
within the  region  is  the  net result.  For  example, the post  of  the
bridge toll increase  and  the parking tax  become  revenues to  support
improvements in public  transit systems.   About $18 million annually
would be expended in this way.  There  are many hidden subsidies given to
the use of  the private  automobile including a variety of public services
(judicial  system, coroner,  fire department,  on  street parking, city
planning, and other services typically financed from property  taxes),
and local  ordinances which require parking  to be provided  by
residential, commercial,  and industrial developments.  Because these
subsidies are not structured on a "user pays" basis, there are existing
inequities in the way transportation systems are financed.  The use of
bridge tolls and parking taxes to support transit service improvements
could be viewed as a redistribution of subsidies from one transportation
system to another.  The land use recommendations support a more  compact
development pattern for the region than would occur under existing city
and county  land use policies.  The  direct  cost of  implementing these
recommendations are of an  administrative or regulatory nature.  These
                               8-19

-------
costs will  be estimated after the specific policies  and  actions to be
implemented  by each jurisdiction in the region are agreed upon.
Indirect  costs such as cost  impacts on land,  housing,.commerce, etc.  are
addressed in the overall  assessment.
     The costs  associated with the  carpool  incentive  programs
(preferential parking, bus/carpool lanes on freeways  with ramp metering,
and  an expanded carpool matching  program) total  about  $9  million
annually.  The  bulk of these costs are due to construction requirements
for the bus/carpool lanes and ramp meters.
     Finally, the cost of implementing a comprehensive system of bicycle
paths and storage facilities is  estimated to  be  approximately one-half
million dollars per  year.   It was assumed that  the  paths would be
striped onto existing  roadways where the additional  road  width required
would be accommodated by narrowing existing vehicle  lanes.
     Cost-Effectiveness of AQMP  Recommendations
     The cost-effectiveness of the various  AQMP  recommendations can be
generally  estimated  in terms  of the  cost  per  ton of hydrocarbon
emissions prevented, as sunmarized below:
      o  The  stationary source  control recomnendations would cost
         between $200  and $1000  per  ton of hydrocarbon  emission
         reduced, depending on the cost assumptions  employed.*
      o  The motor vehicle emission control recommendations would
         cost  approximately $1000  per ton of hydrocarbon  emissions
         reduced;
*According to  the cost conventions used for  all  control measures  and
 described  in References  8-1 and 8-2, the  cost-effectiveness  of
 stationary source  controls would range  from  $200 to $300 per  ton.
 However,  stationary source  control  costs are  (1)  heavily weighted
 toward capital  outlays for control facilities, which (2) have a shorter
 useful  lifetime than assumed  for  all  control measures  (10-15 years
 rather than 25 years).   Using these latter  assumptions,  the
 cost-effectiveness would be approximately $1000 per ton.
                                8-20

-------
     o  The  land  use and transportation recommendations would
        cost  approximately $10,000 per ton of hydrocarbon
        emissions  reduced,  assuming no net dollar costs  or
        benefits due  to the land use  recommendations.
     These estimates would Indicate  to  some what  the  priority for
implementation of the  various recommendations  should be.  Stationary
source controls are  clearly the most cost-effective within  the  time
frame of this plan.  The land use and  transportation recommendations
would appear  to be  relatively expensive; however,  this conclusion is
also only valid during the time frame  of this plan.  The effectiveness
of  implementing the  land use and transportation recommendations are
expected to increase  with  time beyond  the year 2000.
                              8-21

-------
                             References


8-1,   Associations of Bay Area Governments, "Appendix  G,  Air Quality
      Technical  Materials, San Francisco Bay Area  Environmental
      Management Plan,"  Berkeley, California, June, 1978

8-2   Kan,  I, "Effectiveness and  Costs of Alternative  Air  Pollution
      Control Programs,"   Technical  Memorandum 14 in Appendix G, Air
      Quality Technical  Materials, San  Francisco Bay Area Environmental
      Management Plan,  Association of  Bay  Area Governments, California,
      June, 1978
                              8-22

-------
                             Chapter 9
DEVELOPMENT OF STAFF RECOMMENDED
                        DRAFT PLAN

         Analysis described  In the previous section showed  how a
     comprehensive strategy could have substantial  air quality  Improvement on
     the region.  Despite these improvements, however,  the results show
     violations  in the  0.08  ppm  standard  in 1985 and 2000.  From  the
     sensitivity analyses, it was estimated that less than'450 tons/day of
     hydrocarbon  emissions would be permissible for the standard to be
     attained.  Additional hydrocarbon emission reductions needed beyond  the
     comprehensive strategy are shown in Table 9-1.  Two basic options were
     available to the region to demonstrate further emission reductions to
     meet the standard:

           o Additional controls on existing sources
           o Management of the growth  of new sources and indirect
             sources.

     A description of these options is provided below.

     ADDITIONAL CONTROLS ON EXISTING SOURCES
         Table 9-2 summarizes additional  control measures that could be
     applied to provide the final increment of  control necessary to  attain
     standard.  These measures were not analyzed to the same level of detail
     as the measures 1n the comprehensive strategy.
                                  9-1

-------
        Table 9-1.  Hydrocarbon Emission Reductions Required to
          Achieve  the 0.08 PPM Photochemical Oxidant Standard
                                1985 (Tons/Day)      2000 (Tons/Day)

     Base  Line  Emissions               797                  1058

     Allowable  Hydrocarbon
       Emissions3                    < 450                 < 450

     Hydrocarbons  Remaining
       After  Implementing
       Comprehensive  Strategy          511
                                                       604b      545C
     Additional  Hydrocarbon
       Reductions  Needed to                                ,
       Meet Standard                  > 61            > 154D       95C
     aVaries as  a  function  of oxides of nitrogen emissions and the
      spatial  and  temporal  distribution of all precursor emissions,


     ^Assumes  upper  range of population forecast in Series 3
      projections--6.1  million people in 2000.
     cAssumes lower range  of  population forecast in Series 3
      projections--5.4  million  people in 2000.
     As noted  in  the  Table,  the  lowered Reid Vapor Pressure of gasoline

would result in a  2  to 4%  reduction of HC emissions. However, it would

produce  the undesirable  side  effect of making vehicle engines difficult

to operate in cold weather.   If only small changes in vapor pressure are

required, engine start-up and  warm-up problems are minimal  but the

corresponding  effectiveness  of  this measure is also  minimal.   This

program  has been  studied  in  the  past on a number of occasions.  A study

being conducted by the American Petroleum Institute has  concluded  this
                                 9-2

-------
   Table 9-2.  Additional AQMP Control Measures for Existing Sources
               and Approximate Emission Reduction Potentials8
     Stationary Sources
   o Lower Reid Vapor Pressure
   o Ban Small Gasoline Engines
     (e.g.* Lawnmowers)

     Mobile Sources
   o Catalytic Converter Retrofit
     ('71-'74 LDV)
   o Evaporative Retrofit
     (pre-1978)

     Transportatlon Controls
   o Increased Gas Tax
   o Area License
   o Smog Charges
   o More Stringent Application
     of Previously-cited Trans-
     portation Controls

     Other
   o Gasoline Rationing
   o Prohibiting Certain
     Organic Solvent Use
                                            1985
                             2000
     VD


    15-30

    10-15



      6

      4
1*7


 2-4

 1-2



 0.6

 0.4
 T/D


20-35

20-30



  0

  0
1*7


 2-3

 2-3



  0

  0
     3-5    0.3-0.6
         To  be  Implemen-
         ted with  land
         use management
         measures
Variable impact depending on stringency
of application and user groups affected.
(A 100% rationing program could yield
an additional 170 ton/day emission re-
duction by the year 2000.)  Obviously,
a very direct and potentially effective
means of reducing hydrocarbon emissions.

Variable impact depending on stringency
of application.  (A 100% prohibition
could yield an additional 160 ton per
day emission reduction by the year
2000.)  This measure assumes going con-
siderably beyond the use of water-based
and high sol Ids content solvents and
BACT on organic solvent evaporation.
aAssumes prior implementation of the Comprehensive Strategy.
                                  9-3

-------
proposal  has very limited potential  as  an air pollution control measure.



The technical  feasibility of this  measure is questionable.   Therefore,



it did not  appear to be an attractive option for the AQMP.



     A ban  on the  use  and/or sale of  small  gasoline engines would



include  lawnmowers, chain  saws,  small  gasoline  powered  pumps  and



generators, etc.   In  some cases  alternatives can  be found  such as



electric  lawn mowers;  however, these  alternatives were  seen  to have



other  undesirable characteristics in terms of  inconvenience  (small



gasoline  engines are ideal for use  in situations where electrical  power



is not conveniently available).   Enforcement of this measure could be



difficult.  This  measure  has  many very obvious  administrative  and



implementation obstacles associated with it.  It was not  considered to



be an  attractive option for the AQMP.



     The catalyst  and evaporative retrofit measures  for  light duty



vehicles  are marginally effective  by 1985 and decrease in effectiveness



as the retrofitted vehicles  age  and  are eventually junked.  Previous



retrofit  programs attempted by the  California Air Resources  Board have



been unpopular, since there are no  direct benefits to the vehicle  owner.



These  programs  have a very short-term benefit and require rapid adoption



and implementation to achieve their greatest potential.  Given the many



technical  problems associated with  retrofit programs in the past,  these



control measures were not considered an attractive option for the  AQMP.



     The  transportation controls listed can yield emission  reductions



shown  if  stringently applied.   For  example, a 300% increase  in the cost



of gasoline via a gasoline tax would yield  an approximately  1 to 2



tons/day  hydrocarbon emission reduction in 1985.  A close  assessment of
                              9-4

-------
any particular proposals is recommended prior to inclusion in the plan.
     The measures  listed as "other" can yield  a  range of emission
reductions  depending on  how  stringently they are applied.   A 100%
gasoline  rationing  program would yield an additional emission reduction
of about 170  tons/day by the year 2000, assuming prior  implementation of
the comprehensive  strategy.  A 100% prohibition on  organic solvent use
in the region could yield an additional emission reduction of about  160
tons/day beyond  the  comprehensive strategy.   The effectiveness  of
intermediate  levels  of stringency are difficult to  estimate, but  are
expected  to be somewhat  less than proportional.  The impacts of these
measures  are also variable depending  on the stringency of  their
application.  Again, because of  the very obvious  problems associated
with implementing  these measures, they did not appear to be attractive
options for  the  plan.

MANAGEMENT OF THE  GROWTH OF NEW SOURCES AND INDIRECT  SOURCES
     An alternative to additional control over existing sources is to
manage the growth  of new sources and indirect sources of emissions.  New
Source  Review  (NSR) was excluded from the air quality  evaluation of the
comprehensive strategy for a number of reasons:
        o NSR is of variable  effectiveness,  depending on  how
          stringent the  adopted  rule is (e.g., off-set
          provisions).
        o The specific form of NSR appropriate  and acceptable to
          regional,  State and Federal  regulatory agencies has been
          and continues to be debated.
        o It is  more appropriate to compare the  effectiveness of
          NSR with  respect to other control  programms using a
          common baseline forecast.   Such a forecast  should not
          already  include an NSR assumption.
                                 9-5

-------
     In  considering  alternatives  for attaining  and maintaining  the



oxidant  standard after  all  reasonably  available controls have been



implemented,  NSR  is of interest.  Its effectiveness can  range from  zero



to a maximum of approximately 200  tons/day  reduced by  the year 2000.



The specific  level of effectiveness achieved depends on the number  and



type of  sources  subject to review, and the specific review criteria used



for determining  compliance.



     Indirect  Source Review  (ISR)  is the  counterpart to New  Source



Review for sources that do not directly emit pollutants, but which cause



or induce emissions from  other sources.  Shopping centers, parking lots,



and airports  are  examples of indirect sources of pollution.  The  land



use management  recommendations in the comprehensive strategy would rely



heavily on implementation by local governments,  with no  real mechanisms



for ensuring consistent  implementation from one jurisdiction to another



across the region.  An Indirect Source Review program  conducted  at  the



regional  level  would provide the necessary mechanism.   The Bay Area Air



Quality Management District has the legal  authority to implement  such  a



program.   With  specific technical  assistance from the  Metropolitan



Transportation  Commission and the Association of Bay Area Governments,



the BAAQMD could  administer an ISR program for  the  region.



     New Source  Review and Indirect  Source  Review were determined  to



ensure  sufficient hydrocarbon emission reduction to allow attainment of



the oxidant standard  and  continued maintenance  thereafter.  In addition,



NSR and  ISR  regulations are  such that they can provide some degree of



flexibility-   Initially strict regulations can  be  changed and relaxed



somewhat after  it has been demonstrated that the air quality standards
                                 9-6

-------
can be attained and maintained  in spite of such  relaxation.
     The role of  the  NSRl/ISR  programs in relation to the comprehensive
strategy and baseline air quality is Illustrated  in  Figure 9-1.   The
comprehensive strategy is shown to provide the bulk of the air  quality
improvement between now and the year 2000, while the role of the  NSR/ISR
programs would  be to provide the  incremental emission reduction (or
prevention)  necessary to attain and  maintain the federal oxidant
standard.   As  the comprehensive  strategy is made more stringent,
restrictions on new source development can be made  less  stringent, and
vice versa.

THE STAFF-RECOMMENDED DRAFT PLAN
     The  draft   air  quality  maintenance  plan recommended was
comprehensive and included a broad  range of  control  programs for
photochemical oxidants.   It  called  for more  controls on  stationary
sources of air pollutants and on  motor vehicles.   It  also included
proposals  for changes in  the region's  transportation systems  and for
management of  development to achieve compact growth.
     The recommended  application of improved technological controls to
stationary sources and motor vehicles would produce the most substantial
improvements in air  quality.   The transportation  and development
measures would act together to  reduce automobile traffic, a major source
of  air  pollutant emissions.  The stationary and mobile source controls,
together with transportation and  development measures  and new and
indirect  source  review programs, would ensure eventual attainment and
long-term maintenance of the Federal  oxidant standard.
                                 9-7

-------
I
00
            a

            a
           T3
           'x
            o
            k.
            o


            en
           .IE
            O
            '5)
            10
            3
            C
            C
            10
            8.
            X
            01
             Air quality under existing control^
                         Effect of the comprehensive strategy
                                     Effect of NSR/ISR Programs'
                 .10
                                                                              (.24)
                                                                               (.12)
Federal oxidant standard (.08 ppm)
                                                                             •J—>
                  1975
                     1985
2000 Year
             Figure 9-1
            Relative roles of new source review/indirect source review
            programs and the comprehensive strategy in achieving and
            maintaining the Federal oxidant standard in the San Francisco
            Bay Region.

-------
    The draft plan recommendations are summarized in Table 9-3,   For
each action listed in the first column,  subsequent columns of the table
indicate the  agencies  responsible for  implementing the action,  the
implementation schedule, costs, sources of  financing and direct benefits
in  terms  of emission reductions.   Other  environmental,
institutional/financial, economic,  and  social impacts of the actions
were also presented in the draft plan.
    Figure  9-2  highlights  in graphic  form  the  schedule  for
implementation of each  of the plan  recommendations.   Most  of  the
recommendations could be adopted by appropriate  agencies within two
years  of  plan approval.   However,  full  implementation would
realistically require  several years  beyond the adoption phase,
particularly for the most significant programs such as the use of best
available control  technology  (BACT).  It is therefore unlikely that the
oxidant standard can be met in the  Bay Area by 1982.   The ultimate 1987
target year for attainment set by  the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments can
be met  through implementation  of this plan.
                                9-9

-------
                         Table  9-3.   Draft Oxidant  Plan  Recommendations







RECOMMENDATIONS


DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon emission
reductions, tons/day)
1985 2000

IMPLEMENTING
AGENCY
(or agencies)


SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
1 Fully
Implemented
TOTAL
COST/YEAR
Of
RECOMMENDED
ACTION


FINANCING
MECHANISM



LEGAL
AUTHORITY

I. Stationary source controls
   GENERAL POLICY. MINIMIZE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM STATIONARY SOURCES
Action 1
Use paints and other
coatings that are water
based and/or have a
high solids content.
Action 2
Use closed systems for
storage and transfer
of organic liquids.
Action 3
Use best available
control technology
TBACT) on" new and
existing hydrocarbon
sources.
PROCESS

60 80 "ay Area Air A - 1978 to »7,170.000b
Pollution 1980
Control District
(BAAPCn) I 198S
40 65 BAAPCD A - 1978 $17,000,000b
I 1983
227 339 BAAPCO A - 1980 J529.000*
t?9,331.000b
I 1985
TECHNOLOGY




Chemical milling, plating



Auto service station storage tanks. Closed balanced system with secondary system

Action 4
Continue the review of
new I modified Industrial
and commercial facilities
(new source review)
Variable, BAAPCO Currently No direct
depending on being costs
the stringency Implemented
of application.
Maximum
effect of 64
tons /day of
hydrocarbon
emissions
reduced In
1985 and
200 tons/day
In 2000.
Administrative/
Regulatory
- Ad valor urn
tax revenues
— ARB subvention
Funds
Federal Clean
Air Act funds
Operating/
Private
Capital
Private
California
Pollution
Control
Financing
Authority
Federal
Small
Business
Administration
Lnan Program

BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation
BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation
BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation
BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation
II. Mobile source controls
GENERAL POLICY: MINIMIZE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
Action 5
Implement more stringent
venlcle (light duty and
heavy duty) exhaust
emission controls--approx.
SOT reduction below 1977
prescribed levels.
Action 6
Implement Inspection/
maintenance program for
light and heavy duty
vehicles.
62 California A - 1980 S3, 000*
Air Resources $24. 910. 000°
Board (CARB) I 1990
23 58 CARB and/or A 1978 Jl,395.000a
Bureau of H6,892,000b
Automotive 1 1985
, Repair
Private
I/M Program
revenues
State General
Fund
Mulford-
Carrell
Air Resources
Act
Hl'W
Legislation
Required
                                                      * Public agency
                                                       Private
                                                  9-10

-------
Table 9-3.  (Cont'd)

RECOMMENDATIONS

Action 7
Require heavy duty
gasoline exhaust control
devices on existing
vehicles.
DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon mission
reductions, tons/day)
1985 2000


25
IMPLEMENT INC, SCHEC
AGENCY FOR At
(or agencies) A - Adot
1 - Full
Imp

ULE TOTAL
TION COST/YEAR
tlon 01
y RECOMMEND! I)
•merited ACTION

CARB » - 1«» W.OOO* „
fi, 554,000b

FINANCING
MECHANISM


• Private
1 • 1965





LIGAL
AUTHORITY ,
1

New
Legislation
Required

III. Transportation controls
GENERAL POLICY: REDUCE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS THROUGH TRANSPORTATION ACTIONS TO REDUCE VEHICLE
Actions
Increase tolls on
bridges.






Actions 9 & 10
Implement rcgionil
Dirking strategy to
discourage private
auto use and encourage
high-occupancy auto
use.
Action 9 - Parking tax

Action 10 - Preferential
parking for
carpools and
vanpools
Action 11
Provide additional
transit service.










Action 12
Increase bus and
carpool lanes/ramp
metering.














Action 13
Implement an auto
control zone in San
Francisco central
business district to
reduce traffic.


0.2 Not esti-
mated sep-
arately;
Included
beloH »lth
•mission
ii i-» rrduc t Ions — .
due to
compact
develop-
ment



0.3


Metropolitan A - 1980 (113.000,000°)
Transportation

USE

- Toll revenues

Coieitsslon (MTC) I - 1980
and California
Toll Bridge
Authority



Cities, counties.
employers, MTC




















- Parking charges





if
AB 664 f

1
1





Local
Municipal
Tax Enabling
Legislation


A - 1980 »lS.OOOa .
$(«.000,000D)
1 - 1981
0.1
A - 1978 S8S6.000a
1 - 1985


0.7





MTC, transit A - 1978 $18, 540.000*
districts (e.g..

MUNI. AC. BART) I - 1985










0.2














0.1 \l/




















Caltrans, transit A - 1979 S7.418.000*
districts, cities
and counties 1 - 1986




























City of San A - Previously $128.000a
Francisco adopted



I - 1980












Public agency
b
Private


- Federal Mass
Transportation
Assistance
Programs
- Fare revenues
Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Funds
- State Highway
Trust Fund
diversions

- Federal Aid
Highway
Programs
- State Highway
Programs funds













- City General
Funds
- Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Funds





- Local Transit
District
Enabling
Legislation
- Bay Area
Rapid Transit
District
Enabling
Legislation
- Interagency
Memoranda
of Understanding

- AB 69 (State
Transportation
Planning
Enabling
Legislation)
- AB 363 (Bay
Region Trans-
portation
Planning
Legislation)
- Caltrans
Enabling
Legislation
- Local Planning
and Traffic
Control
Enabling
Legislation
San Francisco
Traffic
Ordinances






         9-11

-------
                                                   Table 9-3.   (Cont'd)


RECOMMENDATIONS


Action 14
Provide more ride
sharing services such
as Jitneys and
vanpools.

Action 15
Develop more
extensive
bicycle systems.




DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon emission
reductions, tons/day)
1985 2000


1.7 Not esti-
mated sep-
arately;
Included
below with
reductions
2 „ (Jut to
compact
develop-
ment





IMPLEMENT INC,
AGENCY
(or agencies)

1
1
Caltrans.
Employers,!
MTC


Cities, counties,
MTC, Caltransi
i




SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
I - Fully
Implemented

A - Previously
adopted
I - 1979

A - 1980
I - 1985





TOTAL
COST/YEAR
OF
RECOMMENDED
ACTION

J300.0004



1438,000'

' Public agency
L.
° Private


FINANCING
MECHANISM


Federal Mass
Transportation
Assistance
Program

Federal-Aid
Highway
Program
- Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Funds



LEGAL
AUTHOR I TV


Federal Energy
Legislation


Federal -Aid
Highway
Legislation
- Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Legislation

IV.   Development and land use management
       GENERAL POLICY:  ALTER REGIONWIOJ DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS TO REDUCE AUTOMOBILE TRAVEL BY MEANS OF LOCAL AND REGIONAL POLICIES ON LAND USE AND URBAN SERVICES
Ihe reductions in
emissions are based
on a total population
in the region of 5.«
million.  If the
population were at
the higher range
projected (6.1
million), tne emission
reductions shown would
be higher, but so
would the total
from which the
reductions would be
subtracted.
  Not    24      Cities, counties.
estimated         Local Agency
                Formation
                Commissions,
                special districts.
                ABAG, BAAPCO, MTC,
                State Water Resources
                Control Board,
                California Department
                of Transportation,
                U.S. Department of
                Transportation,
                Enviro mental
                Protection Agency
A - 1978    Direct administrative   Depends on
          and regulatory costs    specific
I  2000    to be estimated when    actions
          agencies specify actions
          they will take to
          carry out recommendation
          for compact development.
Existing authority
contained in California
Government Code; Health
and Safety Code; State
Constitution; relevent
Federal legislation.
(Editor's Note:  The  draft AQMP proposed 16  policies and  49  actions  to implement
                       the  general  policy  on  land  use and  development management.  They
                       are  not  listed here  for brevity's  sake.)
                                                                9-12

-------
               Figure 9-2    SCHEDULE FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF  THE AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE PLAN
                           ACTION
                    YEAR
                                                            >1978|
.1980
1985.
I    I     I1990!
1.    Use paints and other coatings that are water based
     and/or have a high solids content.
2.   Use closed systems for storage and transfer of organic
     liquids.
3.   Require Best Available Control  Technology (BACT) on
     new and existing sources.
4.   Continue the Review of new and modified industrial
     and commercial facilities (New Source Revlew/NSR).
5.   Adopt more stringent vehicle exhaust emission
     standards.
6.   Implement mandatory vehicle inspection/maintenance
     program.
7.   Require exhaust emission control devices on existing
     heavy duty gasoline vehicles.
8.   Increase bridge tolls.
9.   Implement a regional parking tax.
10.  Require provision of preferential parking for
     carpools.
11.  Provide additional transit service.
 12.  Provide additional bus and carpool lanes and/or ramp
  '   metering on selected freeway segments.
 13.  Implement an Auto Free Zone In the San Francisco
     Central Business District.
14.  Implement a regional scale carpool matching and van-
     pooling program.


15.  Develop more extensive bicycle systems
     Achieve more compact development throughout the
     region.  Adopt Indirect Source Review Program.
        adopt program/regulation

        Implementation
                                                         9-13

-------
                              Chapter 10
PLAN REVIEW, ADOPTION AND APPROVAL
                            PROCESS

          Air quality actions  to attain and maintain the Federal oxidant
     standard  in  the Bay Area were contained  in  one  chapter of the
     Association of Bay Area Government's Environmental Management Plan.
        •
          Neither the Clean Air Act nor the Federal Water Pollution Control
     Act—the major Federal  legislation under  which ABAG's Environmental
     Management Plan  is  developed and maintained—specify  a local approval
     process for required  plans.  The Clean Air  Act does require that a State
     adopt the State Implementation Plan, but the 1977 Amendments provide for
     a somewhat different  approach.
          While the 1977 Amendments retain the provision for  State adoption,
     the  portion of the SIP for a non-attainment area, where possible, shall
     be prepared by an organization designated under Section  174 of the Act.
     The  same plan  is required by Section 172  to include evidence of public
     and local government  involvement and consultation.  It is also required
     to  include evidence that the State,  the  general purpose local
     governments, or a regional agency designated  by general purpose local
     governments,  have adopted by legally  enforceable means (such as
     statutes,  regulations  or ordinances) the necessary requirements,
     schedules, timetables for implementing controls and are committed to
     implement and enforce the appropriate elements of the plan.
          Thus, while no specific provisions for a local adoption process are
     included in the Act,  certain points ought to be considered:
                                   10-1

-------
     1.   The  lead agency,  if  it is assigned by the  plan certain
         responsibilities,  should  provide  evidence of  its
         commitment by policy board action.

     2.   Other implementing agencies, by similar action, should
         indicate their commitment to carry out control  measures
         or strategies included  in the plan.

     3.   The  State, while  sharing  authority/responsibility for
         the preparation of the  SIP provisions for non-attainment
         areas, retains the responsibility to adopt the  plan.
     Another significant principle in  plan  adoption does not emerge

directly from the Act, but indirectly from the philosophy  underlying the

1977  Amendments.   To provide for  an implementable plan — and  to

effectively  consider the social  and economic consequences of carrying

out that  plan—there ought  to  be  an  orderly process  for local plan

approval  and concomitant public  participation in that process.

     In the Bay Area,  the  principles  described above were  used  in

designing  the specific approval  process for the Bay Area's Environmental

Management  Plan.   Key features  in that  process relevant  to air quality

planning were:
     1.    Stationary source controls, which would be  implemented
          locally by the Bay Area Air Quality Management  District,
          were prepared by the  BAAQMD*  staff and adopted  by the
          District Board prior  to ABAG action.

     2.    Similarly, transportation  measures were prepared and
          adopted by the Metropolitan Transportation Corrmission.

     3.    ABAG's approval  schedule allowed considerable time for
          public participation and  to allow local  elected
          officials of the  region  to  fully consider  divergent
          viewpoints in adopting a  plan  to be submitted  to the
          State.
^formerly  the BAAPCD

                                10-2

-------
PROVIDING ADEQUATE TIME FOR PUBLIC  REVIEW
     The Environmental Management  Plan was drafted as an  Integrated air
and water  quality, water  supply, and solid waste  plan for the Bay
Region—the first  time such a plan  had  been attempted for  a  large region
with environmental problems  so complex.  A draft  of the  plan was
released for public  review and conments in December 1977.
     At the time,  it was expected that  the  draft plan would undergo
extensive  revision  as a result of  public conments and would be approved
by ABAC in April  1978.   A  lengthy  series of  public workshops and
hearings were scheduled  prior to actions by  various ABAG-approving
bodies.  These include the EMTF, RPC, the Executive Board,  and finally
ABAG's General Assembly  (in  which  each member city and  county has a
vote).
     During  the  early stages  of  the  public hearing process one major
theme of comment emerged rapidly.  It became readily apparent  that local
cities and counties  and  public interest groups did not feel adequate
time had been allowed  for public review of  the massive pian--although
almost all the reconmended actions of the plan  had been  described in a
lengthy progress report for the draft plan  in September/October 1977.
The  fact that the  air  quality chapter of  the plan included  several
controversial  matters  and that the  schedule  for  review and action was
compressed inevitably led to complaints that the plan was  being forced
down the throats of  a  concerned, objecting  group of  local  governments
and citizens.   As  a  result, the original  schedule was modified—to allow
more time  for  public advice and  more time  for local governments to
consider the plan.   Figure 10-1 depicts the final process  and schedule
for adoption of the  initial Environmental Management Plan.
                                10-3

-------
o
I
           INITIAL
           TECHNICAL
           STAFF
           WORK
           COMPLETED
                           Figure 10-1
            Process for Developing the Plan

                           PUBLIC
                          • HEARINGS
DRAFT
ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT
PLAN
           TECHNICAL
           ADVISORY
           COMMITTEES'
           INPUT
ENVIRONMENTAL
MANAGEMENT
TASK FORCE
APPROVAL
                   PUBLIC
                   WORKSHOPS
ABAG REGIONAL
PLANNING
COMMITTEE
APPROVAL
ABAG
EXECUTIVE
BOARD
APPROVAL
ABAG
GENERAL
ASSEMBLY
APPROVAL
STATE  AND
FEDERAL
AGENCY
APPROVALS
           DECEMBER-
           1977
                                                            1978

-------
     The Joint Technical Staff, of course, fully expected that the draft
plan would change  through  the public review and hearing process, but it
was difficult to present this view without appearing  defensive about the
technical  analysis.   It was vitally important for the  staff to maintain
a disinterested view of their  previous technical  work and to  fully
consider the adverse reactions toward technically sound recommendations
without rejecting the reactions.  Crucial to  the  adoption process  was
the  ability to consider public acceptability as a criterion—so was the
ability to modify plan recommendations until acceptability was achieved.
This did not mean, however, watering down the recommendations simply to
achieve acceptability, for  Federal  law required  a plan to attain  the
oxidant standard  and, once attained, maintain the standard thereafter.
Therefore, if certain actions were unacceptable to the  public (however
technically sound), they had to be replaced with other  measures in order
that the plan would be approved by the State and EPA.

SPECIFIC CHANGES TO THE DRAFT AQMP
     Because  of existing  and  projected  air quality problems,  a
comprehensive  strategy  of  additional  technological controls  for
stationary and mobile sources, and transportation and land use controls
was  recommended in the December 1977 draft AQMP.  All were identified as
needed  for meeting  and maintaining the air quality standards.  The draft
recommendations are summarized in Table 10-1.
     The review and modifications to the  AQMP by the EMTF  clearly
illustrated how politically sensitive many of the air  pollution control
programs were in the  Bay Region.  By far the most substantial changes to
the  plan occurred at this first  stage of policy  review.  Subsequent
                                 10-5

-------
                       Table 10-1.    Summary  of  AQMP  Draft Recommendations and  Changes  by  ABAG's  Policy Bodies
               DRAFT  PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS
                                                      CHANGES BY ENVIRONMENTAL
                                                      MANAGEMENT TASK FORCE
                                                                            CHANGES  BY REGIONAL
                                                                            PLANNING COMMITTEE
                                                                 CHANGES BY
                                                              EXECUTIVE BOARD
                              CHANGES BY
                            GENERAL ASSEMBLY
o
 i
            Use  "best available control
            technology" on new and existing
            hydrocarbon sources. Including
            using paints with water base
            and/or high sol Ids content and
            closed systems for handling
            organic liquids.
                                     Use "available control  technology"
                                     on existing sources  giving reason-
                                     able time to pay  for new equipment
                                     and giving consideration to other
                                     effects of requiring such controls
                                     In each case.
Continue to review new and
modified Industrial and
commercial  sources (requiring
low emissions  or  sometimes
prohibiting such  sources on
a case-by-case basis).
Use "lowest achievable emission
rate" for new or modified sources.
Continue tp review  new and modified
sources, using "offsets" and other
provisions of law where possible in
lieu of prohibitions.  (An "offset"
Is a reduction in emissions from
existing Industry or commerce by an
amount greater than the emissions
from a new Industry.  The reduction
1s paid for by the new industry.)
            Require 50% cleaner vehicles
            than called for in 1977  Clean
            Air Act Amendments
                                     No major changes.
           Carry out program of Inspection
           and maintenance of all  vehicles
           to Insure that pollution con-
           trols are operating properly.
                                     Make  recommendation Statewide.
           Require exhaust controls on all
           existing, large gasoline trucks.
                                                Add condition that  if State or
                                                Federal  requirements for vehicle
                                                controls are delayed, this region
                                                should be given extensions beyond
                                                the Federal  compliance dates.
                                                             No major changes.
Develop procedures
other than offset
to permit industrial
growth and not penalize
this region with  respect
to other regions.
                                                                                       No  major changes.
                                                                                                                              No major changes.
                                                             No major  changes.

-------
DRAFT PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS
Increase tolls on bridges.
Impose regional parking tax.
Provide preferential parking
for car pools and vanpools.
Provide additional transit
service.
Increase bus and carpool lanes
and ramp metering.
Create an auto control zone In
San Francisco central business
district.
Provide more ride sharing
services such as jitneys and
vanpools and develop more
extensive bicycle systems.
Alter reglonwide development
patterns to reduce urban sprawl
and reduce automobile travel.

	 CHANGES i»V ENVIRONMENTAL 	 1
MANAGEMENT TASK FORCE
Add condition that Increases should
only be made if needed to finance
public transit service Improvements.
Delete.
No major changes.
Replace with three-fold transit
Improvement strategy (recommended
by MTC):
o MTC to adopt service Improve-
ment objectives that can be
financed by existing resources
o MTC to continue efforts to
identify need for additional
services and pursue services
if justified
0 3SX Increase In Hdership if
there Is Increased Federal
and State funding.
No major changes.
Move to continuing planning
process and change to central
business districts in aeneral.
No major changes.
Move to continuing planning
process.
Identify for Executive Board
decision three categories of
controls to provide needed
emission reductions after 1985:
o Small gasoline engines
o Off-road vehicles (for
example, construction
vehicles)
o Transportation controls such
as gas tax. road tolls, and
additional transit.
CHANGES BY REGIONAL
PLANNING COMMITTEE

No major changes.




CHANGES BY
EXECUTIVE BOARD
Delete (recommended by
Metropolitan Trans-
portation Commission rMTCIl
No major changes.
Delete reference to 3SX;
call for additional
transit subsidies fro*
State and Federal
governments (recom-
mended by MTC)
No major changes.
Delete from continuing
planning process.
No major changes.
Remove specific reference
to land use policies from
continuing planning process
tasks.
Carry out in 1990. or after.
one or more of the following
to maintain oxidant standard!
o Controls on small gasolim
engines
o Controls on off -highway
vehicles
o Additional transit
o More stringent vehicle
emission controls
CHANGES BY
iENERAL ASSEMBLY
No chanpes.


-------
changes  to be made by ABAG's RPC, Executive  Board, and General  Assembly



were less significant in terms of  the  technical  detail, but key to



providing  substantial political support for  the plan as it moved through



the process.  The process  of changes made  by the EMTF and the  subsequent



policy  review  bodies represents an  interesting case  study of  how



technical analysis of a complex physical  problem (in this case air



pollution) is transformed into  a  series  of publicly and  politically



acceptable  policy recommendations for broad-based air pollution control



strategies.



     Attention by  technical  staff was  given to summarizing  and



simplifying  the  presentation of the  results  of the analysis.   The



primary indicator  that  was  used  for comparative evaluation  of  the



relative  effects  of the recommended strategies was  the tons  of



pollutants  removed per day.  Costs were summarized in  both  annualized



average  and  present discounted values, although it was recognized  that



there could be wide variations in the cost estimates.  Some  impacts of



the proposals were difficult to quantify.   This was particularly  true



regarding issues such as  impacts of the plan on special  populations and



on the  housing  market.



     This phase of  plan  development was  characterized by participation



from the  broad spectrum of public  and  private  organizations  and



concerned individuals.  The models provided the quantified targets that



had to  be  reached and the  policy implications of not achieving certain



tonnage reductions.   As  modifications were made  to  the initial



recommendations, additional technical  analyses were provided to evaluate



whether the  changes would result in  a  plan that met  the Federal



standards.
                                10-8

-------
     With respect to the  draft plan recommendations, a  number  of

specific  changes were made.  These changes were, for the most part, made

to come up with a more widely  acceptable plan.  In some cases  partial

reruns of the models were required  and in  others  they were  not.  By

major category of controls  the major changes (also summarized in  Table

10-1) were:

        o Stationary source controls - The use of "best available
         control  technology  (BACT)" for new  and existing sources
         was  changed to "lowest achievable emission rate (LAER)"
         for new sources  (as  required by  the Clean Air Act  of
         1977)  and "available control  technology  (ACT)" for
         existing sources.  The main controversy regarding BACT
         was  its  precedent  setting  nature  for  plans to be
         prepared for other regions.

         Currently the Clean Air Act  defines  BACT  in terms of
         technologies identified in any approved SIP.  In reality
         much of the controversy on BACT during the EMTF review
         centered around semantics.   Numerous  industrial
         representatives felt "reasonably  available control
         technology (RACT)" should be used.  The Joint Technical
         Staff felt that suggestion was a significant technical
         compromise that  jeopardized the  abil ity  to prepare a
         plan to meet the  standard.   In the  end,  the language
         adopted for existing industries was  "available control
         technology (ACT)."   The  definition of  ACT closely
         resembled the definition of BACT used in the Clean Air
         Act.  Further, in specifying a number  of actual control
         technologies for different industries, it was generally
         agreed that most  of  the technologies were actually  RACT.
         The significance  of this last  point was that  no
         additional simulations of these types  of  technological
         controls would  be  needed since their representation  in
         the models were unchanged.

         The  continuation of the new source  review (NSR) program
         was  also contested.    It was  argued  that  NSR meant  no
         industrial  growth—stifl ing the  region's economy and
         driving out both  existing industry seeking to expand and
         new  industries seeking to locate within the region.  In
         response to  these concerns, a  special study was
         undertaken to examine the  economic,  social and air
         quality impacts of NSR policy on the Bay  Area.    This
         necessitated additional  analysis  using  the regional
         econometric model  (10-1).  The main  conclusion of the
         study was  that  NSR  would  not adversely impact the
         region.  Although considerable concern was  voiced  over
                                10-9

-------
  NSR  policy, it also  remained in the  plan for a separate
  reason.  The Clean Air Act requires  of all areas seeking
  time extensions to meet  the  carbon monoxide  and/or
  photochemical  oxidant standards that a permit program  be
  in place, such as  NSR  to  review  new  and modified
  industrial sources.

o Mobile source controls - Three basic  proposals for
  additional mobile controls were made in the draft plan:
  1) requiring a 50% more  stringent  vehicle  exhaust
  standard than called for  in  the  1977  Clean Air Act
  Amendments;  2) carrying  out  an  inspection  and
  maintenance program for light and  heavy duty vehicles;
  and  3)  requiring  exhaust retrofit devices for existing
  heavy  duty gasoline trucks.  By and large, these
  recommendations were unchanged through the  various
  reviews.  The EMTF did recormiend the latter two measures
  be adopted statewide.  Furthermore, a  condition was
  added  in the plan that if State or  Federal requirements
  for  vehicle controls are delayed, this region should  be
  given  extensions beyond  the  federal compliance dates.
  In all likelihood  the lack of controversy  locally
  concerning proposals that have  been  very  controversial
  Statewide and nationally can  be explained by two major
  factors:  1) the responsibility for implementation
  rested with the California Air Resources Board and was
  thus once removed from the public officials developing
  the  plan  locally; and 2) no other measures available for
  local  adoption and implementation as alternatives were
  acceptable for wide-scale support within the region.

0 Transportation  controls  -  A  wide  variety of
  transportation  incentives  and  disincentives were
  recommended but several of the  disincentives proposed  to
  discourage private auto use were deleted during the plan
  review phase.   These included:   1) increasing tolls  on
  bridges; 2) imposing a regional parking tax;  and  3)
  creating  an auto  control zone in San Francisco central
  business district.  The  deletions were not unexpected
  since the measures were locally quite  controversial.
  The incentive-type  transportation controls (in reality,
  transportation system improvement measures) were adopted
  with little,  if  any, changes.   These measures included:
  1) providing preferential  parking for  vanpools and
  carpools; 2) providing additional  transit service;  3)
  increasing bus and carpool  lanes and ramp metering; and
  4) providing more ride sharing services such as jitneys
  and  vanpools and developing  more  extensive  bicycle
  systems.

  Earlier analysis  with the modeling system indicated what
  the  reduction  in  vehicle miles  traveled could  be
  expected from the initial  transportation recommendations
                        10-10

-------
          and  the resultant tonnage reduction of air pollutants.
          Subsequent modifications to the transportation measures
          were analyzed to insure  that the new package of controls
          would also result in  the same reduction.

        o  Development controls  and land use management - The draft
          plan proposed a series  of land use policies and actions
          to  reduce the overall  vehicle miles traveled  in  the
          region.  The objective  of reduced auto travel was to be
          accomplished through  a slightly more compact development
          regionwide, a  better balance between jobs and housing,
          and  a shift of more people  to  carpools, vanpools,  and
          public  transit.   By far,  the most  controversy in the
          plan centered around  the land use management proposals
          and  they were eventually deleted entirely from the plan.
          The  major concerns surrounding land uses  were:  that it
          would open up  the possibility of regional, State and
          Federal regulatory  bodies  usurping local  land  use
          decisions, and that it would have adverse socio-economic
          impacts,  particularly  in  the housing  market.
          Additionally,  the  land  use  controls had not been
          demonstrated to  be  as  effective  as other  control
          measures.  For example, the modeling analysis estimated
          that land use management results in only  about 5 percent
          (approximately 24 tons/day of hydrocarbons) improvement
          in  air  quality.  Compared  to  the other measures, they
          appeared to be the least cost effective.


     The draft plan identified  land use controls as needed for long-term

maintenance  of the oxidant standard, as opposed to most measures  which

were needed to attain the oxidant  standard.  Thus,  with their  deletion,

a  deficit in the  emission  reductions  needed to  show  long-term

maintenance appeared.  As a substitute for  the land  use controls  the

ABAC Executive Board in  its  review added the following:  Carry out in

1980, or after, one or more of  the following  to maintain the oxidant

standard through  the year 2000:

        o  Controls on small gasoline engines

        o  Controls on off-highway vehicles

        o  Additional transit

        o  More stringent vehicle  emission controls
                                 10-11

-------
     The  emissions inventory proved to be  useful  in analyzing the
impacts  of  these proposed  controls.  The  inventory contained the
emissions  reduction potential  of  each of these measures which could  be
compared with the needed 24 tons  due to removing the  land use management
proposals.
     As readily apparent from the table,  the General  Assembly of ABAG
concurred  with the Executive Board  recommended plan  of June 1978.  The
General Assembly  also approved  a continuing planning process for the
Environmental Management Plan  (the  air quality portions  of that process
are  described  in the  next  chapter).  The  plan  is currently  being
reviewed  by  State and Federal  agencies.
     Table 10-2  shows the locally  adopted AQMP policies  and actions.

EVALUATION OF THE PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROGRAM
     The  process conducted for approval of the Environmental Management
Plan was  explicitly designed to  produce  a politically  acceptable,
implementable  plan.   Despite a  great deal  of controversy, the plan was
adopted by ABAG's General  Assembly on a 71-5 vote.  Because of the
importance  of the plan, many  groups and individuals  that previously had
not dealt with ABAG on a regular  basis became more active as a regional
constituency.   They  helped shape the compromises that eventually
resulted  in  a locally  adopted plan.  They  also helped ensure a  high
degree of attendance at more than  150 sessions of the  EMTF and its
policy and technical  advisory  committees.
     Another "success" of the public participation  program was that the
task force  didn't go the way of  so  many  toothless  committees--i ts
                                 10-12

-------
Figure  10-2.   Air QtrtrTttyMaintenance Plan  Recommendations

KCOKNOATIOMS

DIRECT IENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon Mission
reductions, tons/day)
IMS tOOO

RESPONSIBLE
AGENCY
(or agencies)

SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
I - Fully
Implemented
TOTAL
COST/YEAR
OF
RECOMMENDED
ACTION

FINANCING
MECHANISM


LEGAL
AUTHORITY

  I. Stationary source controls
     GENERAL FOUCY: REDUCE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM STATIONARY SOURCES
Action 1
Use available control
technology en existing
Hydrocarbon sources,
•1 loving t reasonable
Mortlutlon schedule
for ilr pollution con-
trol equipment. Avall-
ible control technol-
ogy means in emission
limitation based on the
maximum degree of re-
duction of hydrocarbons
•iltted from or which
results fro* any emit-
ting facility, which the
permitting authority.
on a case-by-case basis.
taking Into account*
energy, environmental
and economic Impacts and
other costs, determines
Is achievable for such
facility through appli-
cation of available
methods, systems and
techniques. Technology
for selected processes.
which have been Included
In the projections of
emission reductions, are
as follows:

t2S 337 Bay Area Air A - 1980 (539,000*
Pollution .,.„ -__ -...h
Control District I - 1985 •$18,000,000D
(BAAPCD)























Administrative/
Regulatory
• Ad valorum
tax revenues
- ARB subvention
Funds
- Federal Clean
Air Act funds

Operating/
Maintenance
- Private

Capital
- Private
- California
Pollution
Control
Financing
Authority
- Federal
Snail
Business
Administration
Loan Programs



BAAPCD
Enabling
Legislation






















•Costs are considered
underestimates due to
choice of discount rate.

PROCESS TECHNOLOGY
Organic storage 	 Secondary seals
Tar pots 	 Loading door assembly
Paint spray booth 	 Incinerator or low/no solvent coating;,

Dry cleaning 	 	 Closed system with solvent recovery

Gasoline bulk storage 	 Floating roof or fixed roof S vapor recovery
Auto service station storage tanks 	 Balanced system
Auto fill operations 	 Balance system

Action 2
Continue the review
of new and modified
Industrial facilities
(new source review),
using offsets and/or
other provisions of
the Clean A1r Act
Amendments of 1977
to allow for a reason-
able level of growth
consistent with the
requirements of the
act. Use technology
to produce the lowest
achievable emission
rate (LAER). as defined
by the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977.
on new and expanded
hydrocarbon sources.








Combination of BAAPCD Currently Increased cost
ATT In Action 1 b»1"9 to Industry
and LAER are Implemented for emission
estimated to re- offset purchases.
duce hydrocarbon
emissions by ZZ5
tons/day 1n 1985
and 337 tons/day
In 2000. From
NSR and offsets.
64 tons/day are '
targeted for 1985.
Additional emis-
sion reductions
required to main-
tain standards
will depend on
regional growth
rates and success
of other control
programs. It Is
highly unlikely
that more than
150 tons/day can
be reduced by
2000. .
* Public agency
» Private















































BAAPCD
enabling
legislation





















                                           10-13

-------

RECOMMENDATIONS

DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon emission
rtductloni, tons/day)
1985 2000

RESPONSIBLE
AGENCY
(or agencies)

SCHEDULE
FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
I - Fully
Implemented
TOTAL
COST/YEAR
OF
RECOMMENDED
ACTION

FINANCING
MECHANISM


LEGAL
AUTHORITY

II. Mobile source controls
    GENERAL POLICY:  REDUCE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES
Action 3
Implement more stringent
vehicle (light duty ind
heavy duty) exhaust
emission controls--approx
50t reduction below 1977
prescribed levels.
Action 4
Implement Statewide In-
spection/maintenance
program for light and
heavy duty vehicles.
Action 5
Require exhaust control
devices on existing
heavy duty gasoline
vehicles Statewide.
Action 6
Permit no further delays
1n (mlewntlng strict
emission requirements on
automobiles, provided,
however, that 1f such de-
lays are granted by either
the California Air Re-
sources Board or Congress,
this region should be pro-
vided with extensions be-
yond the deadlines requlrei
by the Clean A1r Act Amend
ments of 1977.
62 California A - 1980 $3.000* _ - Private Mul ford-
Air Resources S24.910.00011 Carrel 1
Board (CARS) I - 1990 Air Reiources
Act
23 58 CARB and/or A - 1978 ll.sgS.OOO". - I /M Program New
Bureau of $16,892,000" revenues Legislation
Automotive I - 198S - State General Required
Repair Fund
25 - CARB A - 1979 tS.OOO* . - Private New
11.534.000° Legislation
1-1985 Required
i
                                                            • Public agency
                                                            b Private
                                               10-14

-------


RECOMMENDATIONS

DIRECT BENEFITS RESPONSIBLE SCHEDULE TOTAL
(Hydrocarbon emission AGENCY FOR ACTION COST/YEAR
reductions, tons/day) (or agencies) A - Adoption OF FINANCING
IMS 2000 I - Fully RECOMMENDED MECHANISM
Implimented ACTION
III. Transportation controls
GENERAL POLICY: REDUCE MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS THROUGH TRANSPORTATION ACTIONS TO REDUCE VEHICLE USE
Action 7
preferential parking
for carpools and
vanpools.


ActionS
Pursue a three-fold
transit Improvement
strategy.
(1) MTC. 1n coopera-
tion with transit
operators, will
adopt service
Improvement ob-
jectives which
can be financed
by the existing
cornel tment of
resources to
transit. Im-
proved capacity.
service, and
rldership are
contemplated.
A measure of
the Improve-
ment expected
should be agreed
to and committed
to In the context
of the RTP by
October 1. 1978.
(Z) MTC will continue
Its efforts to
Identify the need
for additional
services (as It
has, for example.
in the elderly
and handicapped
pro0v*Mi and MOTC
recently in the
Minority Trans-
portation Needs
Assessment Pro-
ject (HTNAP) and
to pursue provid-
ing additional
services as they
are justified. A
measure of the
Improvement ex-
pected will con-
• tinue to be
developed as
these special
needs are examined
and as the de-
mand for transit
services expands
generally.
(3) During the commute
hours all major
transit systems
in the Bay Area
•re at capacity.
Any substantial
Increase in rider-
ship will be de-
pendent upon In-
creased Federal
or State financial
assistance. The
•mount of rlder-
- Federal Aid
0-1 Not ostl- Cities, counties, A - 1978 SB86.000* highway
mated sep- employers, MTC. programs
irately I - 198S - Local Trans-



1.3






























•












\
portation
Development
Act funds

MTC. transit A - 1978 S3I million' - Federal Mass
districts (e.g.. Transportation
MUNI. AC. BART) I - 1985 Assistance
Programs
- Fare revenues
- Local Trans-
portation
Development
Act Funds
- State Highway
Trust Fund
diversions







































/






.
Public agency
Private




LEGAL
AUTHORITY



- Cal trans enabling
legislation
- Local planning and
traffic control
enabling
legislation

- Local Transit
District
Enabling
Legislation
- Bay Area
Rapid Transit
District
Enabling
Legislation
- Interagency
Memoranda
of Undtrstandlng











.







































10-15

-------
      RECOMMENDATIONS
  DIRECT BENEFITS
Hydrocarbon (million
reductions, tons/day)
  198S    2000
                                                    RESPONSIBLE
                                                     AGENCY
                                                    (or agencies)
   SCHEDULE
  FOR ACTION
A - Adaption
I - Fully
    Implemented
   TOTAL
 COST/YEAR
    OF
DECONCNOEO
  ACTION
                                                                                                            FINANCING
                                                                                                            MECHANISM
  LEGAL
AUTHORITY
    ship Increase Is
    directly affected
    by the amount of
    Increased State
    and Federal fund-
    Ing.  Provision
    of additional
    transit capacity
    represents a
    positive trans-
    portation strategy.
    Thus the State
    and Federal
    governments are
    encouraged to
    provide necessary
    funding support
    for transit Im-
    provements to off-
    set any air qual-
    ity deficiencies
    caused by delet-
    ing less desirable
    transportation
    control measures.
    Without this
    financial support,
    transit capacity
    cannot be signi-
    ficantly expanded.
Action  9

 Support  development of
 high occupancy vehicle
 lanei and/or  ramp
 metering on selected
 freeway  segments when
 justified on  an Individ-
 ual project basis.
Action 10

  Provide more  ride
  sharing services such
  as jitneys  and van-
  pools.   Objectives
  need to be  developed
  and monitored to
  gauge the desirable
  rate of expansion.
Action 11

 Develop more extensive
 and safe bicycle  systems
 and storage  facilities.
 Objectives need to be
 developed and monitored
 to gauge the desirable
 rate of expansion.
Action  12

  MTC  11  requested  to
  consider the following
  action: "Complete
  construction of
  certain portions of
  State freeway systems
  1n which there are now
  pollution-causing
  naps."
  0.2  Not estimated   Caltrans. tran-     A - 1979
       separately.      sit districts.
                       cities and          I • HM
                       counties.
                   t7.438.000*
  1.7
  2.0
                                       Federal  Aid
                                       Highway Pro-
                                       grams
                                       State High-
                                       way Programs
                                       funds
                                           AB 69 (State
                                           Transportation
                                           Planning Enabling
                                           Legislation)
                                           AB 363  (Bay Region
                                           Transportation
                                           Planning Legis-
                                           lation)
                                           Caltrans Enabling
                                           Legislation
                                           Local Planning and
                                           Traffic Control
                                           Enabling
                                           Legislation
                        Caltrans,
                        employers,
                        MTC
 A- Previously
    adopted

   I - 1979
                                                             $300,000'
                   Federal
                   Transportation
                   Funding
                        Cities,
                        counties,
                        NIC.
                        Caltrans
  A - 1980

  1 - 1985
                    M3B.OOO*
                    Federal  Aid
                    Highway  Pro-
                    grams
                    Local Trans-
                    portation De-
                    velopment Act
                    Funds
 Federal-Aid
 Highway
 Legislation
 Local Trans-
 portation
 Development Act
 Legislation
                           MTC
                                              197B
                                                                                                          MTC enabling
                                                                                                          legislation
                                                                       10-16

-------
       RECOMMENDATIONS
   DIRECT BENEFITS
(Hydrocarbon trillion
 reductions, tons/day)
   1H5    IOW
 RESPONSIBLE
   AGENCY
(OR AGENCIES)
   SCHEDULE
  FOR ACTION
A - Adoption
I • Fully
    IWlMMtld
   TOTAL
 COST/TEAR
   OF
RECOMMENDED
  ACTION
FINANCING
MECHANISM
  LEGAL
AUTHORITY
   IV.   Other  measures
           GENERAL POLICY: ENSURE MAINTENANCE OF THE OKIDANT STANDARD IEYOND IMS-67
iActlon  13
  Adopt bttattn IMS
  ind 1M7. tnd 1*ple-
  •ent In 1990 or there-
  after, on* or ogre of
  the following neasures
  to cnturt HlnUmnc*
  of tte oxldmt stindtrd
  through tht fttr 2000.
  subjtct to furthtr
  tvcluttlon of thi
  •Msum during tht
  continuing planning
  process:

   0 Reduce hydro-
     carbon Missions
     fron swll gtso-
     llne engines

   o Reduce hydro-
     urbon oolsslons
     froi off-htolhity
     •oblle sources
   o tapte
     stringent vehicle
     •ttowst ertsslon
     controls—ApproM-
     Metetjr 60-an
     reduction below
     197? prescribed
     levels.

   o Provide additional
     transit
          ?4
                        ARB;  BAAPCOi
                        ABAC; HTC;
                        transit
                        operators.
                  A - 19BS-87

                  I - 1990-95
                   To be
                   detent ned
                  To be
                  detemlned
                   Clean Air Act.
                   Nulford-
                   Carrel I Act
                                                                10-17

-------
recommendations unneeded and unnecessary.  The public visibility  of the
task  force and its  composition—backed by  requirements of Federal
law—helped  ensure that the  task  force's recommendations would  be
considered carefully.  Virtually  every task force recommendation was
accepted without change by the  ABAG  policy committees and the General
Assembly.   General Assembly  approval gave  local  elected officials a
greater sense of local control  over  environmental protection strategies.
Subsequently, the  State  Legislature  adopted changes in  State law
recognizing the authority of ABAG's  General Assembly over the  content of
the  plan,  and formalizing the Federal-State-regional partnership
contemplated  by various Federal  laws.
     Despite the  adoption of  the plan,  there were  problems  that
developed in  the public participation  program.  These problems tended to
be overshadowed by  the plan adoption process, but should  be pointed out.
Public participation  objectives had  not  been stated in quantifiable
terms, making evaluation difficult.   Funds were not available  for public
opinion surveys, which might have helped shape final control  measures.
There  was  simply not enough time for  pre- and post-testing of materials
produced for  their  effectiveness in  informing the public.
     The time  constraints also made it difficult to provide information
on localized  impacts to city councils, community groups and suburban
daily  and  weekly   newspapers.   Suburban dailies and television stations
especially  needed more individual  briefing sessions.  This became  most
obvious during  the  final selection of  strategies and during the last few
steps in the  plan approval  process.  The staffs were  seldom able to
speak  to community groups  more than once; many  lost  touch with the
                                10-18

-------
process over  the  two-year period.
     Earlier  it was noted that the  staff had to maintain a disinterested
view of their previous technical work as the plan moved from its initial
draft  through the review  bodies  until  it was finally approved by the
General  Assembly.   In general,  the staff attempted to  provide
                                    1 '{* ''-
information  about the  draft plan and the technical reasons why the
control measures  were  recommended.  As with  most planning programs,
there sometimes is a fine line between  presenting information about what
is recommended and "defending" the  recommendations.   During the early
stages  of  the  public review process,  certain  special   interest
groups—but  not  all—maintained that the  staff was "defending"  the
recommendations.  It  is very important to  recognize the  ability of
interest groups to communicate their points  of view effectively.   The
agency's  responsibility is to  ensure that information is fairly
presented.
     The difficulties cited  above will  need more attention during the
continuing  planning process, described  in the next chapter.

1977 CLEAN  AIR ACT REQUIREMENTS
     Shortly  after the initial plan  for oxidant was  adopted by ABAG's
General  Assembly in June 1978, the Bay Area agencies (ABAG, BAAQMD and
MTC)  received preliminary comments  on  the  plan as it related  to
requirements  of the 1977 Clean Air  Act. Three key points of the comments
were that the plan needed to include:
        o Demonstration of reasonable further progress
        o Implementation of  EPA's RACT Measures
                              10-19

-------
        o  Demonstration  of legal, financial  and manpower
          commitments to carry out the plan.

     Demonstration of Reasonable Further Progress
     On receipt of the comments, the  agencies  in the Bay Area projected
reductions in  stationary source  organic  emissions for  the industrial
source  categories in the BAAQMD baseline  inventory.  Also projected  was
the course  of motor  vehicle  emission  reductions.   The adopted
transportation controls were assumed to  be of negligible effectiveness
prior to 1982,  consistent with the implementation schedule in the plan,
then assumed to be of linearly increasing  effectiveness between 1982  and
1985.  The cumulative course of the control  recommendations were then
described.   It was shown that the plan's control measures will  provide
more than  minimum reasonable further progress toward attainment of the
0.08 ppm oxidant standard.
     Implementation of EPA RACT Measures
     The  Clean Air Act Amendments of  1977 require the use of reasonably
available  control technology—at a minimum—in all areas of the country
where the  0.08  ppm oxidant standard is being exceeded.   In October  1978,
EPA identified  reasonably available control technologies  (RACTs), also
known  as  control  technology guidelines (CTGs)  for 12 categories of
sources.  Controls for additional source categories are forthcoming.
     On comparing the EPA-defined RACTs with existing local  regulations,
the Bay Area  Air Quality Management District  found that  two existing
district  regulatory requirements are more stringent.   Eight  BAAQMD
regulatory requirements are less stringent than RACT requirements.  One
source  does  not  exist in  the  district, and one District regulation is
                              10-20

-------
equivalent  but needs  clarification.   A comparison  of the  RACT
requirements  with 1978 District  regulations is shown in Table  10-3.
Table 10-4  is  a summary comparison of emission  reductions from EPA RACT
measures with'those  attributed to  Action.1 - Available Control
                                              «Sf ','
Technology  by  source category.
     To comply with  the 1977 Clean Air Act requirements, the District
set public  hearings through March 1979 to consider adoption of proposed
rules.  For  other  source categories not covered by current EPA CTGs, but
for which emission reductions have been identified  in  Action 1, the
District plans to adopt  and  implement regulations on  the  tentative
schedule shown in Table 10-4.
     Demonstration of Legal. Financial and Manpower Commitments
     This  task was  identified for completion early  in 1979 as the
non-attainment plan (covering  photochemical oxidants, carbon monoxide
and total suspended particulates) —adopted by ABAG's General Assembly in
January 1979—moved through  the approval  process at the  State  and
Federal  levels.
                              10-21

-------
                                             Table 10-3.   COMPARISON OF EPA RACT MEASURES AND BAAQMD REGULATIONS
                           EPA RACT MEASURE
                                     CONTROL REQUIRED
BAAQMD REGULATORY
    CONTROL
         COMMENT
ro
ro
                       I.  Service Station
                          Phase  I (Tank)

                       2.  Fixed  Roof Tanks
                    * 3.  Gasoline Bulk Plants
                          (Truck filling)

                    * 4.  Gasoline Bulk Terminals
                      5.  Metal Degreaslng
                      6.  Cut Back Asphalt
                      7.  Auto Body Painting
                      8.  Can Coating
                          Fabric Coating
                          Paper Coating
                          Coll Coating

                      9.  Metal Coating
                    *10.  Large Appliance Manufacture
                     11.  Magnet Wire Insulation
                     12.  Refinery:
                          a) Vacuum systems
                          b) Waste water systems
                          c) -
                                     90%

                                     Internal Floating
                                     Roof

                                     95X
                                     Vapor Balance

                                     952
                                     851 Control
                                     Overal1
                                     No OrganIcs Allowed


                                     70X


                                     50-80X




                                     BOX


                                     SOX


                                     SOX
                                     Best Modern
                                     Practices
       Process unit turn arounds
Denotes ARB Model Rules adopted or In preparation.
90X (Reg 2)

Secondary Seals
(Reg 3)

60X
(Reg 3) Proposed Reg 13

95X
Proposed Reg 13
85X 1f>40 Ib/day
OX If <40 Ib/day
(Reg 3)

Allows 400 Ib/ton
(Reg 3)

20X
(Reg 3) Proposed Reg 17

20-40X
(Reg 3) Proposed Reg 14
and 16
20-SOX
(Reg 3) Proposed Reg 14

20-501
(Reg 3)

Less than SOX
(Reg 3)
Best Modem Practices
Proposed Reg 18
No new regulation needed.

District more restrictive.
No new regulation needed.

District less restrictive.
New regulations needed.

Need to modify Reg. to Include
smaller terminals and consider
spills and leaks.

District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.
District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.

District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.

District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.
District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.

District less restrictive.
New regulation needed.

District less restrictive
(No operations 1n District)
District about the same.
Regulations need clarification.

-------
                                              Table  10.4   COMPARISON OF EPA RACT MEASURES KITH AVAILABLE
                                                      CONTROL TECHNOLOGY BY SOURCE CATEGORY IN 1985

EPA RACT MEASURES

1. Service Stations Phase I
2. Fixed Roof Tanks
3. Gasoline Bulk Plants
4. Gasoline Bulk Terminals
5. Metal Degreaslng
6. Cut Back Asphalt
7. Auto Body Painting
8. Can ft Coll Coating Fabric
ft Paper Coating
9. Metal Coating
10. Large Appliance Mfg.
11. Magnet Hire Insul.
12. Refinery
a) Vacuum System
b) Hastewater
c) Process Unit Turnaround
Subtotal

BAAQMO SOURCE CATEGORIES (I )

126. 27. 28 Vehicle Fill ft Tanks
123 Storage ft Blending
(125 Bulk Plants
I
#35 Degreasers
Not In BAAQMD Inventory

!#31 ft 132 Industrial Coating-
Solvent and Water Base
•**#2 Is Valve Leaks 0 7.4 T/D:
Vac. Sym.e 2.5 T/Dj A.P.I, t 3 T/C
Load Racks 9 3 T/D; M1sc. 1 T/D;
13 U/B ft Flares • 2.6 T/D
--
ACTION 1 SOURCE CATEGORIES NOT COVERED BY CURRENT EPA RACT
A. Other Chemical
B. Other Ind/Com
C. Marine Loading
D. Solvent ft Other Tanks
E. Coml/Dom Coatings
F. Dry Cleaners
G. Rubber Fabrication
H. Plastic Fabrication
I. Printing
J. Other Organic Evap.
19
110 Pulp/Paper; 119 Food/Agrl.
124
#29 ft #30
#33 ft #34
#36 ft #37
#38
#39
#40
#41
Subtotal Source Categories Not Covered By Current EPA RACT
TOTAL EPA RACT AND ACTION 1 ACT

REDUCTION ESTIMATES
TONS/DAY fT/D)
EPA
27.0*
14.9
6.8

35.0
20.5**

38.3


19.5 ;

162.0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
162 - 27-
135
BAY AREA PLAN
0*
14.9
6.8

3S.O
0**

38.3


19.5

114.5

2.6
4.1
4.6
7.7
21.7
13.0
4.7
23.0
9.0
20.0
110.4

224.9
ESTIMATED REGULATION
DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULE
ADOPTED
1972
1977
1979

1979
1980
1979
1979


1979

~

1982
1982
1980
1981
1980
1980
1981
1982
1980
1981
~


IMPLEMENTED
1975
1978
1980

1981
1983
1983-5
1961-2


1982

—

1983
1983
1982
1982
1982-3
1982
1983
1984
1982
1983
—


ro
co
                     * Service Station Phase I Control was completed In the Bay Area prior to EPA guidance.   It Mas not Included In
                      Action 1 emission reduction estimates.

                    ** Cut back asphalt was not Included In emission Inventory and no credit was taken In Action 1. The emission
                      reduction will occur when a new district regulation Is Implemented.

                  *** A.P.I, separators; U/B - upset/breakdown

-------
                              REFERENCE

10.1   Leong, E. Y.,  et  al,  "A Methodology for Analyzing Alternative
      Oxidant Control Strategies,"  presented  at the 71st Annual  Meeting
      of  the Air Pollution Control  Association, Houston, June, 1978.
                                  10-24

-------
                             Chapter 11
THE CONTINUING  PLANNING PROCESS

       The draft 1979 air quality  plan  for the San Francisco  Bay Area
   contains  provisions for continuing planning  to ensure that the control
   programs Included In the plan are being Implemented.  The continuing
   planning process Is also necessary to ensure that the Bay Area  continues
   to comply with the legal  requirement  for making "reasonable further
   progress" toward  attainment of air quality  standards.  The continuing
   planning  .process  established  in the Bay  Area will  provide the
   appropriate  forum for accomplishing  a number  of tasks.  They may  be
   categorized as follows:
     o Data collection needed  to  support additional  control
       programs.
     o Air .quality analysis to support additional control programs.
     o Control strategy development and assessment of controls  for
       oxides  of nitrogen and its effect on oxidant formation.
     o Monitoring implementation of the initial  plan to ensure that
       reasonable further progress is being made toward attainment
       of the  oxidant standard.
     o Development of a regionwide oxidant plan for review and
       adoption in the 1981-1982 time period.
   ORGANIZATION FOR CONTINUING PLANNING PROCESS
       The institutional organization for the continuing planning process
   will rely heavily upon the mechanisms and procedures developed  for  the
   preparation of  the initial  plan. The ABAG will continue to be the lead
   agency for the Bay Area Air Quality continuing  planning.  The BAAQMD and
   the MTC  will continue to play key roles in  all  future  planning and
                              11-1

-------
implementation activities  related to the Bay Area Air  Quality Plan.

Responsibilities for conducting future planning tasks are assigned in a

joint memorandum of understanding  between ABAG, the BAAQMD and the MTC.

The  process for both technical and policy evaluation of future planning

work will  be similar to the process successfully used  in the initial

plan preparation (see discussions  in Chapter 2).  Key working groups  and

their responsibilities for  continuing air quality planning in the Bay

Area are summarized below:
   o  Joint Technical Staff -  composed of staff members from ABAG,
     MTC, BAAQMD,  ARB, EPA, and  the  California Department  of
     Transportation (Caltrans).  This group is responsible for the
     development  of alternative  control  strategies and the
     technical  assessment of their  effectiveness and  impacts.

   o Modeling  Sub-Committee -  composed  of  staff  members with
     specialized air quality modeling expertise from ABAG, MTC,
     BAAQMD,  Caltrans, ARB, EPA, and Lawrence  Livermore Laboratory
     (LLL),  Systems  Applications,  Inc.  (SAI),  and SRI
     International  (formerly Stanford Research Institute).   This
     group is  responsible for specification of the air quality
     modeling  methods to be used, and review of the  results
     obtained.

   o Air Quality Advisory Committee - composed  of interested
     individuals from private industry,  local  government staff,
     and special  interest groups.   This committee is the vehicle
     by which  progress on plan preparation is communicated to
     interested  individuals and  organizations  that  are not
     participating directly in the effort.   It provides a formal
     and  continuous opportunity  for  such individuals  to
     communicate concerns and comments on the  work being done both
     to the  staff and to  the  various  policy  bodies who will  be
     reviewing  the  plan.

   o Interagency Management Group - composed of executive staff of
     ABAG, MTC,  and  BAAQMD.  This group functions  to provide key
     administrative and  policy guidance to the Joint Technical
     Staff and serves as a bridge  between technical  staff and the
     policy  review  bodies.

   o ABAG Regional Planning Committee (RPC)- This committee  is
     composed of elected representatives of cities and counties in
     the Bay Area,  and representatives  of  special  and public
     interest groups.  It functions as the principal  policy review
                               11-2

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     body  in ABAG for plan development,  Inheriting the role of
     ABAG's Environmental  Management Task Force.

   o ABAG  Executive Board - This group  is  composed of elected
     representatives  of  cities and counties in  the Bay Area,  and
     functions as the month-to-month  governing  board for ABAG.
     All  plans and matters of regional policy produced by ABAG
     must  receive review and approval by the  board.

   o Metropolitan Transportation Commission - This group  is
     composed primarily  of elected representatives of cities  and
     counties  in  the Bay Area, and functions  as  the governing
     board for MTC.   All  plans,  funding priorities and policies
     related to transit and major transportation  projects must
     receive review and approval by this commission

   o BAAQMD Board of Directors  - This group is composed of elected
     representatives of counties in the Bay Area, and functions as
     the  governing board for  the BAAQMD.  The activities  and
     regulations-of  the  District must receive approval  from this
     board.

   o ABAG General Assembly  -  This  body  includes  elected
     representatives from each ABAG member city and county of  the
     Bay  Area.  Each year, the  General Assembly approves  the
     annual update of the  Environmental Management Plan.

   •o California Air Resources Board - This  body is  composed of
     individuals appointed by the Governor  and has the  authority
     to set motor vehicle  emission  standards.   It  also  is
     responsible  for preparation and  submittal  of the State
     Implementation Plan for California to EPA.   In  addition, it
     can  override  the  authority  of local  air pollution control
     districts such  as the Bay  Area  Air  Quality  Management
     District  in regulating emissions from stationary sources.

FUTURE WORK AND RESEARCH NEEDS

     The  revised staff-recomnended oxidant control plan was approved by

ABAG's General Assembly  on January 13, 1979.  This locally adopted

oxidant plan is currently  being reviewed by the CARB with respect to its

adequacy  for adoption as part of State SIP to be  submitted to  U.S.  EPA.
     At present, ABAG  is  preparing an application  for Federal  funds

authorized  under Section 175 of the  Act  to support the future air

quality planning work.  A number of tasks will  be pursued to insure that
                              11-3

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the elements of the 1977 oxidant  plan are being implemented.  ABAG  will
be monitoring  and evaluating implementation of adopted control programs.
In addition  to   tasks that  follow up on  the adopted plan, other
technical  tasks  are planned in order to address the issues related to
oxidant  long-range transport.   In particular,  the feasibility  of
extending  the LIRAQ modeling  analysis to cover larger areas will be
investigated  along with other alternatives.  If an appropriate analysis
technique  can be developed, the impacts of  different levels of NOX
emissions in  the  Bay Area on oxidant levels in other air basins  will  be
tested.   Once the role of Bay Area  NOX emissions on neighboring regions
is identified,  appropriate  control  measures can  be developed  if
necessary.
     More tests will be conducted to determine the sensitivity  of  peak
oxidant levels to spatially variable controls.  For example, the effects
of strategies to control  only  those emissions  that are  directly
responsible  for the  peak oxidant concentrations will be analysed.
Future work is also needed to identify  industrial growth increments in
precursor  emissions and to implement  an industrial siting process.  The
need for certain  transportation  controls,  e.g., retrofit devices on
heavy-duty gasoline-powered vehicles, will be reassessed.  In  response
to the recent change in Federal  1-hr oxidant standard from 0.08 ppm to
0.12  ppm,  ABAG is  in the process of Devaluating its previously adopted
oxidant control plan to see what changes are appropriate. The continuing
planning process will  insure that the  oxidant standard will be  attained
by the mandated deadline and will continue  to  be maintained  in future
years.
                               11-4

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                                   TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                            (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
  EPA-450/2-79-001b
                                                           3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
  Example  Control  Strategy for  Ozone, Volume 2:  Case
  Study of the San Francisco  Bay Region:  1976-1978
             5. REPORT DATE
              April, 1979
             6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
                                                           8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
                                                             OAQPS No. 1.2-121
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
                                                           10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
  Association of Bay Area Governments
  Environmental  Quality and  Energy Resources Department
  Hotel  Claremont
  Berkeley,  California   94705	
             11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
               68-02-3001
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
  U.S.  Environmental Protection  Agency
  Office  of Air Quality Planning and Standards
  Research Triangle Park, North  Carolina  27711
             13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
               Final	
             14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
  Association of Bay Area Governments Project Manager:
  EPA  Project Officer:  Andrew Creekmore
            Eugene Leong
16. ABSTRACT

       This  guideline presents  information to assist  States and local agencies  in
   preparing  ozone control  strategies for nonattainment  areas.   The guidance should
   be most  useful  in preparing  1982 State Implementation Plan revisions.

       The guideline covers  the following topics:   Intergovernmental Cooperation,
   Development and Assessment of Air Quality and Emissions  Data, Modeling to Related
  Air Quality to  Emissions,  Control Strategy Analysis and  Assessment, Plan Adoption,
  and the  Continuing Planning  Process.  This volume covers the case study for the
  San Francisco Bay Region:  1976-1978.
17.
                                KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                              b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                           c.  COSATI Field/Group
  Air Pollution

  Atmospheric Contamination Control


  Ozone
 State implementation
 plan control strategy

 National ambient air
 quality standard
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT

  Release  Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)

 Unclassified
                                                                         21. NO. OF PAGES
JLZIL
                                              20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
                                               Unclassified
                                                                         22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)

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