WORKING PAPER NO. 42
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
UPPER SNAKE BASIN (IDAHO)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AMD FORECAST
1960-2010
March 1963
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
570 Pittock Block
Portland, Oregon 97205
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WORKING PAPER NO. 42
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
UPPER SNAKE BASIN (IDAHO)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AND FORECAST
1960-2010
DATE: March, 1963
Prepared by RLC
Reviewed by
Approved by
DISTRIBUTION
Project Staff
Cooperating Agencies
General
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
-------
This working paper contains preliminary data and information primarily
intended for internal use by the Columbia River Basin staff and
cooperating agencies. The material presented in this paper has not
been fully evaluated and should not be considered as final.
-------
FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY
INTER-OFFICE MEMORANDUM
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
UPPER SNAKE BASIN (IDAHO)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AND FORECAST
1960-2010
Prepared by: R. L. Cough!in
March 22, 1963
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UPPER SNAKE BASIN (IDAHO)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AND FORECAST
1960-2010
Table of Contents
SUMMARY 1
I. INTRODUCTION 4
A. Purpose of this Analysis 4
B. Definition of the Area 4
C. Study Period 4
D. Limitations of this Analysis 4
II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 5
A. Population 5
B. Industry 15
III. GROWTH POTENTIALS AND FORECAST 51
A. Factors Influencing Future Growth 51
B. Estimated Future Population 73
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution
Control Program, Pacific Northwest
March, 1963
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C-l
UPPER SNAKE BASIN (IDAHO)
ECONOMIC BASE STUDY AND FORECAST
1960-2010
SUMMARY
The population of the Upper Snake Basin in 1960 was 274,187, about
41 per-cent of the total population of Idaho. Population density is
greatest along the Snake River, thinning above Idaho Falls. Over the
last two decades growth has been faster than that of the rest of the
state, with the Upper Snake Basin growing in population at a one percent
annual rate between 1940 and 1950 and a 1.4 percent annual rate between
1950 and 1960, compared to a .9 percent and one percent for the state as
a whole. Population growth has been restricted to urban areas, with
rural populations declining; and the growth of the three largest cities,
Pocatello, Idaho Falls, and Twin Falls has occurred at a rate over twice
that of other urban places.
The economy is based on agriculture, food processing, phosphate
mining and manufacturing, with transportation and a nuclear reactor
project of the AEC also important elements in the regional economy.
Service industries are well developed, partially due to the presence
within the basin of several major tourist attractions. Among services,
wholesale trade and education are particu-larly strong, due to the
handling requirements of the agricultural product and the presence of a
two-year college, a four-year college, and a vocational train-ing school.
The western part of the basin, centered on the City of Twin Falls,
depends largely on agriculture and a well-developed food processing
industry. The northeastern part of the basin relies to a great extent
on agriculture. In the central part of the basin a diversified economic
base has been" built on phosphate production, agriculture, transportation,
a nuclear reactor project, and the service and miscellaneous manufacturing
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C-2
industries characteristic of urban areas; the two Cities of Idaho Falls and
Pocatello lie within this central part of the basin.
In recent years agricultural employment has fallen steeply throughout the
basin as a result of sharply increased labor productivity and farm consolidation.
The economic effect of the drop was nullified by increased processing of the
agricultural output. Sugar refining and potato processing have grown particu-
larly rapidly, but meet packing and processing of diary products have also
advanced with considerable vigor. Employment and output of the chemical in-
dustry, including both phosphate production and the nuclear reactor project,
have risen sharply. With growth of population and urban concentration of popu-
lation, the ratio of service and miscellaneous manufacturing employment to
total employment has also been rising.
Following is the summary of the derivation of labor force and population
models for 1985 and 2010:
Employment Forecast (1,000's)
1985 2010
Agriculture: 9.5% reduction in number of farms
to 1985, reduction in employment
at 75% of the rate of reduction
in farm units 19.8
Employment stable from 1985 to 2010 19.8
Food Processing: potato processing growing at a
2% rate, based on population. . . . 4.3 7.1
meat packing growing at a 5% rate
to 1970, based on current outlook;
at a 2% rate, based on western
population to 2010 8 .... 1.4
all other processing growing at 65%
of the rate of national population
growth 4.1 .... 5.5
Phosphate: Growth at a 4.5% rate to 1985, 150% 2.8
of the rate of national population
to 2010 5.4
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C-3
Employment Forecast (1,000's)
Other chemicals: Thiokol employment to reach
3,000 by 1985, other chemical
manufacturing employment to grow
at a 4.5% rate 7.7
from 1985 to 2010 employment to
rise at same rate as national
population 12.0
Other manufacturing: to grow at half the rate
of chemical and food processing
employment combined to 1985, main-
tain the same rate to 2010 5.3 8.7
Construction: to occupy 7% of the labor force
in Area II, 6% in Area I and
Area III 11.2 16.8
Transportation: Railroad employment to increase
50% of the rate of national popu-
lation to 1985, same rate as
population 1985 to 2010; other
transportation employment to grow
at 65% of the rate of national
population . 8.5 12.8
Services: to add .3% per year to their per-
centate of total employment, with
65% of the labor force assigned
as ceiling for service ratio 105.9. . . . 165.7
Unemployment: to amount to 4% of the labor force ... 6.7 10.5
Labor Force: Sum of the above 177.2. . . . 265.7
Population: 2.63 times labor force, same ratio
as 1960 466.2. . . . 699.1
Growth is forecast to be most rapid in study Area II, where the Pocatello-
Idaho Falls region appears likely to experience sharp industrial expansion.
The population model for 1985 allots 145.7 thousand to Area I, 277.4 thousand
to Area II, and 42.6 thousand to Area III. For 2010, the projection assumes
215 thousand, 422 thousand, and 61.5 thousand in the respective areas.
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I. INTRODUCTION
A. Purpose of This Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the
economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.
B. Definition of the Area
In physical terms the Upper Snake Basin may be said to include that
portion of the Snake River drainage area extending from above the source of the
cna'-e, "oai" Yellowstone National Park, to the Thousand Springs, downriver from
the City of Twin Falls. For the purposes of this paper, political divisions
(i.e. counties) which correspond very closely to the physical boundaries of
the area will be employed. To facilitate consideration of so large an area,
the study area is divided into three sub-areas, distinguished by distinct
economic differences.
Area I is composed of Camas, Gooding, Twin Falls, Elaine, Lincoln,
Jerome, Minidoka, and Cassia Counties.
Area II is composed of Butte, Bingham, Power, Bannock, Caribou, and
Bonneville Counties.
Area III is composed of Jefferson, Madison, Teton, Clark and Fremont
Counties.
C.. Study Period
The study period is the 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim
point at 1985.
D. Limitations of This Analysis
1. This study is intended only as a preliminary estimate of the out-
look for the subject area's growth. Subsequently, in connection with the
Columbia River Basin Project for Water Supply and Water Quality Management,
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C-5
an analysis will be made on an industry-by-industry basis of the growth poten-
tial in the various subbasins. At that time, this preliminary estimate will
be reviewed", and revised if necessary.
2. This study is intended for use particularly in assessing future
water needs. Emphasis has been placed on the analysis of those industries
which make heavy demands upon the water resource. Other industries have been
considered only insofar as they may have a significant effect on future popu-
lation. For this reason, this study is not submitted as a detailed industrial
forecast.
II. PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE
A. Population
The population of the Upper Snake Basin at April, 1960 was 274,187,
about 41 percent of the total population of the State of Idaho. The basin con-
tains three of Idaho's four largest cities, Pocatello (largest in the state),
Idaho Falls, and Twin Falls, and twelve of the thirty-four places with a popu-
lation of 2,500 or more in the state. Table I lists the population of the
basin's principal divisions.
TABLE I
(on next page)
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TABLE I
POPULATION, UPPER SNAKE BASIN, APRIL, 1960 I/
Region Area I
Region Population
Urban k/ Rural Total
Camas County 917
Fairfield 474
Rural 443
Gooding County 9,544
Gooding 2,750
Hagerman 430
Wendell 1,232
Rural 5,132
Twin Falls County 41,842
Buhl 3,059
Castleford 274
Filer 1,249
Hansen 427
Kimberly 1,298
Twin Falls 20,126
Rural 15,409
Elaine County 4,598
Bellevue 384
Hailey 1,185
Ketchum 746
Sun Valley 317
Rural 1,966
Lincoln County 3,686
Richfield 329
Shoshone 1,146
Rural 2,211
Jerome County 11,712
Eden 426
Hazel ton 433
Jerome 4,761
Rural 6,092
Minidoka County 14,394
Heyburn 829
Paul 701
Rupert 4,153
Rural 8,711
Cassia County 16,121
Albion 415
Burley 7,508
Oakley 613
Rural 7,585
AREA I TOTAL 55,265 47,549 102,814
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C-7
Table I Population, 1960 (Continued)
Region Area II
Region Urban Jl/ Rural Total
Butte County . .3,498
Arco 1,562
Moore 358
Rural 1,578
Bingham County 28,218
Aberdeen 1,484
Blackfoot 7,378
Basalt 275
Firth 322
Shelley 2,612
Rural 16,147
Power County 4,111
American Falls 2,123
Rock!and 258
Rural 1,730
Bannock County 49,342
Downey 726
Inkom 528
Lava Hot Springs 593
Arimo 303
McCammon 557
Pocatello 40,784 £/
Rural 8,112
Caribou County 5,976
Bancroft 416
Grace 725
Soda Aprings 2,424
Rural 2,411
Bonneville County 46,906
Ammon 1,882
Idaho Falls 33,161
Irwin 330
Ucon 532
loria 702
Rural 10,299
AREA II TOTAL 100,035 38,016 138,051
(Table I continued on next page)
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C-8
Table I Population, 1960 (Continued)
Region Area III
Region Urban k/ Rural Total
Jefferson County 11,672
Lewisvilie 385
Menan 496
Rigby 2,281
Ririe 560
Roberts 422
Rural 7,528
Madison County 9,417
Sugar City 584
Rexburg 4,767
Rural . 4,066
Teton County 2,639
Driggs 824
Rural 1,815
Clark County 915
Dubois 447
Rural 468
Fremont County 8,679
Ashton 1,242
Parker 284
St. Anthony 2,700
Newdale 272
Teton 399
Rural 3,782
AREA III TOTAL 15,663 17,659 33,322
UPPER SNAKE TOTAL 170,963 103,224 274,187
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 1960.
b/ All settled places with a population of 250 or more at April, 1960.
£/ Pocatello population includes Alameda and Chubbuck, annexed after 1960.
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C-9
The Snake River is the center of population, with most settlements
located on or near the river. Population thins out from the Snake in a region
of volcanic plains enclosed by the Rocky Mountains, v/ith population being
sparsest in the mountainous areas.
Division of population among the three sub-regions is uneven. Area
II contained 50.4 percent of the basin's 1960 population, with 27 percent of
the Upper Snake's inhabitants concentrated in the two cities of Pocatello and
Idaho Falls. In contrast, Area III, unindustrialized and situated at the foot
of the Rockies, contained less than 12.2 percent of the total population of the
Upper Snake Basin. Indeed, the I960 population of this five-county area was
only slightly more than that of Idaho Falls, and well under that of Pocatello.
Table II lists population density of the basin's principal divisions.
TABLE II
(on next page)
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TABLE II
POPULATION DENSITY,- UPPER SNAKE BASIN, APRIL, 1960
C-10
Region
Camas County
Gooding County
Twin Falls County
Elaine County
Lincoln County
Jerome County
Minidoka County .
Cassia County
AREA I
Butte County .
Bingham County
Power County
Bannock County
Caribou County
Bonneville County
AREA II
Jefferson County
Madison County
Teton County
Clark County
Fremont County
AREA III
Upper Snake Basin
Idaho
Highest Density Among Idaho Counties (Canyon)
Lowest Density Among Idaho Counties (Clark)
Inhabitants per
Square Mile
.9
13.2
21.5
1.7
3.1
19.8
19.2
6.3
8.9
1.6
13.6
2.9
43.9
3.4
25.7
13.2
10.7
19.9
5.7
.5
4.8
5.9
9.9
8.1
99.4
.5
a/ U, S. Census of Population, 1960.
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C-ll
Over the last thirty years the Upper Snake Basin has experienced almost the
same rate of population growth as the State of Idaho. While growth was some-
what slower during the nineteen-thirties, it exceeded that of the state during
the 'forties and 'fifties. The growth rate in Area I has declined in each of
the last three decades, that of Area II has risen, while the population of
Area III has remained practically static, as indicated by Table III.
TABLE III
(on next page)
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1,411
. 7,580
29,828
3,768
3,242
8,358
8,403
13,116
1,360
9,257
36,403
5,295
4,230
9,900
9,870
14,430
1,079
11,101
40,979
5,384
4,256
12,080
9,785
14,629
917
9,544
41 ,842
4,598
3,686
11,712
14,394
16,121
.
2.0%
1.9
3.3
2.6
1.8
1.7
.9
.
1.9%
1.4
.2
0
2.0
-
.2
.
-
.2%
-
-
-
3.5
.9
.6%
1.2
.6
.4
1.1
1.8
.7
C-12
TABLE III
COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH, UPPER SNAKE BASIN, 1930 - 1960 2/
No. of Inhabitants Annual Growth Rate (Compound)
Region. 1930 1940 1950 1960 1930-40 40-50 50-60 30^60
Camas County
Gooding County
Twin Falls Cty
Elaine County
Lincoln County
Jerome County
Minidoka Cty
Cassia County
AREA I 75,706 90,745 99,293 102,814 1.8 .9 .4 1.0
Butte County
Bingham Cty
Power County
BMK>ck Cty
Cawbou Cty
Bonneville Cty
AREA II
Jefferson Cty
Madison County
Teton County
Clark County
Fremont County
AREA III
Upper Snake
Basin 185,815 215,229 239,929 274,187 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.4
Idaho ' 445,032 524,873 588,637 667,191 1.8 .9 1.0 1.4
1,934
18,561
4,457
31,266
2,121
19,664
78,003
9.171
8,316
3,573
1,122
9.924
32,106
1,877
21,044
3,965
34,759
2,284
25,697
89,626
10,762
9,186
3,601
1,005
10,304
34,858
2,722
23,271
3,988
41,745
5,576
30,210
107,512
10,495
9,156
3,204
918
9,351
33,124
3,498
28,218
4,111
49,342
5,976
46,906
138,051
11,672
9,417
2,639
915
8,679
33,322
-
1.0
-
.8
.6
2.6
1.4
1.6
.9
0
-
.3
.8
4.0
.9
0
1.8
9.5
1.6
1.8
_
-
-
-
-
-
2.4
1.9
.2
1.8
.6
4.5
2.4
.8
.3
-
0
-
.3
2.0
1.4
-
1.6
3.5
3.0
1.9
.6
.2
-
-
-
.3
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960
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Population growth has been concentrated in urban locations. Between 1950
and 1960 the urban portion of jthe basin's population (for the purposes of this
study, those living in towns of 250 or more persons) rose from 135,304 - 56 per-
cent of total population - to 170,963 or 62.5 percent of total population.
During the same period, rural population declined from 104,625 to 103,224. In
only five counties, Jefferson, Bingham, Butte, Bonneville and Minidoka, did
rural population rise\in response to added irrigation or industrial development.
In general, population growth was greatest in the larger cities, as indicated
in Table IV.
TABLE IV
(on next page)
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TABLE IV
GROWTH OF CITIES WITH 1960 POPULATIONS OVER 2,500 I/
Region.
Gooding
Buhl
Twin Falls
Jerome
Rupert
Burley
Blackfoot
Shelley
Pocatello £/
Idaho Falls
Rexburg
St. Anthony
Three principal
cities
All other cities
1940
2,568
2,414
11,851
3,537
3,167
5,329
3,681
1,751
20,824
15,024
3,437
2,719
47,699
28,603
1950
AREA I
3,099
2,870
17,600
4,523
3,098
5,924
AREA II
5,180
1,856
27,737
19,218
AREA III
4,253
2,695
64,555
33,498
1960
2,750
3,059
20,126
4,761
4,153
7,508
7,378
2,612
40,784
33,161
4,767
2,700
94,071
39,688
Growth
Rate
1940-50
1.8
1.8
4.0
2.4
1.0
3.4
.4
2.8
2.5
2.0
Growth
Rate
1950-60
3.0
1.6
.4
1.6
.8
2.9
2.4
3.5
3.4
3.7
5.5
1.0
0
3.7
1.6
Growth
Rate
1940-60
.4
1.3
2.6
1.5
1.3
1.7
3.5
2.0
3.4
4.0
1.6
0
3.5
1.6
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960.
b/ Includes Chubbuck and Alameda
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B. Industry
1. General
The economy of the Upper Snake Basin is quite specialized,
though it is achieving a steadily rising level of diversity. Agriculture is
the major economic activity of the region. The relative importance of manu-
facturing and service industries is growing, however; and food processing, the
chemical industry, transportation and tourism are all important elements in the
regional economy.
Table V contrasts 1960 employment in the Upper Snake Basin
with a model of an hypothetical area employing a labor force equal in size to
that of the Upper Snake Basin, but. distributed in the same proportions as total
U. S. employment. Assuming that productivity in different areas and different
industries is comparable, the model suggests the number of workers who would be
employed in various industries ("expectable employment") in a self-contained
economy of the size of the Upper Snake Basin, which displayed the same kinds
and amounts of per-capita production as did the U. S. during 1960. While the
model is, of course, an over-simplification, it serves to illustrate the nature
of regional economic specialization.
It is assumed that those industries in which employment exceeds
the "expectable" are in some measure externally oriented - that is, that the
products of these industries are exchanged in other regions for those goods
and services in which the study area is deficient. Similarly, a deficit from
the expected level of employment in an industry is assumed to represent the
approximate degree of the region's dependance on other areas for the product
of that industry.
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TABLE V a/
UPPER SNAKE BASIN EMPLOYMENT, 1960, COMPARED TO
MODEL BASED ON 1960 U. S. AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT
Industry
Agriculture 6.2
Forestry & fisheries .1
Mining .9
Manufacturing
lumber & ...pdts. 1.5
primary & fabctd. metals 3.8
machinery, incl. el. 4.6
transportation eqpt. 2.6
other durables 2.0
food & kindred 2.7
textiles & apparel 3.2
printing & publishing 1.7
chemical & allied 1.2
other non-durables 2.5
Construction 5.6
R.R. transportation 1.3
Other transportation 2.7
Communications & utilities 2.5
Wholesale trade 3.2
Retail trade 14.3
Find., business & repair service 6.3
Personal service 6.4
Education 5.0
Other professional 6.3
Public Administration 4.7
Industries not reported 3.8
Unemployed' 5.0
Total Labor Force 100.5
(Employment in 1,000's)
"Expectable" Actual
21.3
.3
.2
.3
.2
.4
.1
.5
4.7
.1
.9
2.4
.3
6.4
3.1
3.2
2.7
4.6
15.6
6.5
6.2
5.4
4.8
4.1
2.0
4.1
100.5
Externally
Oriented
15.1
.2
2.0
1.2
.8
1.8
.5
.2
1.4
1.3
.2
.4
Deficit,
Employment
Equivalent
.7
1.2
3.6
4.2
2.5
1.5
3.1
.8
2.2
.2
1.5
.6
1.8
.9
a/ Source: U. S. Census of Population, 1960.
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The preeminent place of agriculture in the area's economy is readily
ipparent from the table. It accounts for three-fifths of the region's economic
specialization, as measured by externally-oriented employment. Food-processing
which ranks second to agriculture in degree of external orientation, is
dependant on the products of agriculture for its raw materials. Moreover, a
good part of the externally oriented wholesale trade arises from distribution
of raw and processed agricultural products. Chemical manufacturing, at twice
the expectable level, is derived from exploitation of extensive phosphate de-
posits and a nuclear reactor project of the Atomic Energy Commission.
The major externally oriented service industry is transportation.
The presence within the basin of a major railroad depot - Pocatello - and the
need to ship out bulk goods, as well as ship in most manufactures for distri-
bution over a wide, sparsely settled area, explains the external orientation
of much transportation employment. The high level of employment in retail
trade may be explained in part by external orientation in connection with
tourism. It should be noted, however, that sparse settlement, with consequent
fractionation of retail markets and relatively low productivity in retail
distribution, may also account in part for the unusual level of employment in
retailing. In education, two colleges whose student bodies are drawn in part
form outside the region provide some measure of external orientation.
The external orientation of construction is probably due to the
importation of capital - including public works - characteristic of a re-
source oriented economy, as well as to the presence in the basin of the main
offices of several moderately large construction firms.
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C-18
The obvious area of industry deficit is in manufacturing, where the
Upper Snake Basin specializes in food processing and chemical manufacture
and relies to a great extent on imports for its supplies of other manufactured
goods. Service industry representation is fairly close to the national average,
with the exception of wholesale trade and transportation, where the area dis-
plays an external orientation, and professional services, where the area is
obviously well below average.
Within the Upper Snake Basin there is a distinct difference between
the three sub-regions in terms of economic activity. The counties comprising
Area I rely heavily on agriculture, but have achieved considerable economic
balance through the development of a vigorous food-processing industry, and
from the existence of a broad base of services, resting partly on relatively
high population density for an agricultural region, partly on tourism. Area II
is the most industrialized part of Idaho. Manufacturing and transportation are
each of only slightly less weight than agriculture in terms of employment,
while a high level of service activities meets the requirements of this region
of comparatively high urbanization and population density. Area III remains
largely dependant on agriculture.
2. Area I
Table VI lists employment in various industries at April, 1960
for each county of Area I. Trends in the area's employment are shown in Table X.
Agriculture, occupying 28 percent of the labor force in 1960, is
clearly the predominant element in the area's economy. Rich soil and a favor-
able climate have been complimented by extensive irrigation to create a pro-
duct! veand diverse agricultural base. Alfalfa hay, potatoes, sugar beets and
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wheat are the major crops, with dry beans also grown in substantial quantities
around Twin Falls. Expansion of farmland since World War II has been concen-
trated on irrigated farming and grazing. Dry farming, with wheat the principal
crop, has remained virtually static in terms of acreage, though productivity
gains have resulted in a considerable increase in output. Abundant ground
water and adequate financing have promoted wide expansion of irrigaiton, with
Minidoka and Cassia Counties leaders in extension of irrigation in the Upper
Snake Basin during the last decade.
TABLE VI
(on next page)
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o
CM
I
TABLE VI
AREA I COUNTIES: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION, APRIL, 1960
.Industry
Agriculture
Forestry, fish.,mining
Construction
Manufacturing, total
lumber & wood products
primary & fab. metal
machinery
transport, eqpt.
other durables
food & kindred
printing & publishing
textiles & apparel
chemicals
other non-durables
Transportation
Communication & utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Financial, business, repair
Personal services
Hospitals
Education
Other professional services
Public Administration
Industry not reported
Unemployed
Total Labor Force
21
31
31
10
12
36
12
38
19
30
4
13
376
Doding
1,398
52
155
95
4
3
12
51
21
4
220
150
80
523
138
188
132
178
84
114
85
68
3,660
Twin
Falls
3,610
90
983
1,382
40
44
123
8
61
757
197
40
47
65
729
538
1,023
2,665
1,012
1,157
292
630
582
446
303
572
16,014
74
52
22
8
14
56
8
13
316
58
671
21
86
36
66
35
99
2,009
157
31
5
16
10
78
21
16
142
49
57
16
87
81
74
17
36
1,347
244
248
11
7
30
5
168
7
13
7
168
94
175
467
138
174
63
184
109
138
70
165
4,053
'S. Census of Population, 1960
Minidoka
1,702
. 12
295
587
9
4
35
41
408
37
45
8
223
188
248
781
196
239
39
201
109
165
' 104
251
5,340
Cassia
1,602
13
440
837
13
9
48
4
25
598
71
10
59
179
167
238
1,027
206
300
23
313
150
223
196
268
6,182
Group I
Total
10,932
216
2,369
3,263
130
64
239
16
149
2,006
357
44
119
139
1,663
1,178
1,793
5,957
1,809
2,824
586
1,698
Iil51
1,256
814
1,472
^18,981
-------
C-21
Livestock, dairy products, potatoes and sugar beets have all
steadily increased as a proportion of total agricultural output. Potatoes
and sugar beets, like wheat and hay, lend themselves to ready cultivation by
farm machinery; and the labor requirements of livestock grazing are, in general,
less than those of general crop farming. As a consequence, the number of workers
engaged in farm labor has been dropping throughout the Upper Snake Basin. This
has been manifested not only in falling employment of full time and migratory
farm workers, but in consolidation of farms to achieve optimum productivity
from use of farm machinery. In Area I the effects of this process have been
offset to some extent by a large increase in farmland - in Minidoka and Cassia
Counties alone 126,000 acres of irrigated land were brought into production
between 1949 and 1959. High per-farm capitalization, high average return per
farm unit, and the availability of non-farm employment to supplement, and some-
times subsidize, farming have also acted to slow the drop in number of farm units
in this part of the Upper Snake Basin.
Table VII summarizes some of the changes in the agricultural
economy of Area I between 1949 and 1959. The effect of increased productivity
is made dramatically obvious by contrasting the changes in land harvested (up
24.3%) and farm employment (down 14.9%) with the rise in value of crops sold
(up 84.5%). I/
]_/ Although shifting crop patterns may have played some part in the rise in
farm income, price changes were generally adverse. The index of prices received
for all farm products declined from 258 in 1950 to 240 in 1959. For all crops
the decline was from 233 to 221, for meat animals from 340 to 313, for food
grains from 224 to 202, for feed grains and hay from 193 to 156. (Statistical
Abstract of the U.S., 1960) For Idaho farmers the decline was probably somewhat
greater, since average prices received were somewhat above the U.S. average
during 1947-49, but were moderately below the average by 1961. (Economic Facts.
Idaho Agriculture, October 1962: Agricultural Extension Service University of
Idaho, Boise.)
-------
-------
CM
1
C_J
Value Dairy
Pdts Sold
(1000 $)
1949
1959
Camas
28
30
Good ing Twin Falls
960
1,336
1,941
2,955
Blaine Lincoln
179
353
347
815
Jerome
553
1,345
Minidoka
609
1,509
Cassia
746
1,538
Area I
5,363
9,882
Total
Change
1949-59
84.2%
a/ U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1954, 1959.
b/ Includes Poultry and products, does not include dairy products.
-------
C-23
Growth of food processing has been the most significant recent
economic development in Area I. Providing over 60 percent of manufacturing
employment in 1960, food processing has supplied employment and income to off-
set the effect on the area of declining agricultural employment.
Until the late nineteen-fifties, a considerable part of the area's
food processing activity was small in scale - creameries, cheese plants, local
meat packers - and largely devoted to local markets. Development of extensive
potato-processing has resulted in the appearance of a number of large plants
and very rapid industrial growth since about 1957. Table VIII lists the major
food processing installations in Area I in the summer of 1962.
TABLE VIII
(on next page)
-------
C-24
TABLE VIII
AREA I: AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS, 1962 a/
Firm Name
Green Giant Co.
Pet Milk Co.
Smith's Dairy Products
B & L Meat Co. •
Carter Packing Co.
Idaho Potato Processors
Pet Milk Co.
Young's Dairy Sales
Bryant's Packing Co.
Gibson Bros.
Burley Flour Mills
Shelley Processing Co.
J. R. Simplot & Co.
Ore-Ida Foods
Idaho Potato Processors
Great A&P Tea Co.
Idaho Hide & Tallow Co.
Amalgamated Sugar Co.
Kraft Foods Co.
Everybody's Packing Plant
Ohlinger Packing Co.
Gooding Hide & Tallow Co.
Jerome Potato Co.
Jerome Cooperative Creamery
Idaho Products, Inc.
Potato Products Corp.
Idaho Frozen Foods, Inc.
J. R. Simplot & Co.
Kraft Foods Co.
J. R. Simplot Co.
Amalgamated Sugar Co.
Kraft Foods Co.
Amalgamated Sugar Co.
Rocky Mountain Chemical Co.
Nelson Ricks Creamery Co.
Cannon Foods Co.
Jerome Cooperative Creamery
Swift & Co.
Young's Dairy Products
Cream Top Dairy
Location
Buhl
Buhl
Buhl
Buhl
Buhl
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Burley
Carey
Gooding
Gooding
Gooding
Jerome
Jerome
Jerome
Jerome
Kimberley
Heyburn
Malta
Paul
Paul
Rupert
Rupert
Rupert
Richfield
Twin Falls
Twin Falls
Twin Falls
Twin Falls
Twin Falls
Product or Process
canned vegetables
condensed milk
cheese, ice cream
meat packing
meat packing
frozen potatoes
fluid milk
fluid milk
meat packing
meat packing
flour
dehydrated potatoes
froz. & dehyd. potatoes
frozen & dehydrated
potatoes
frozen potatoes
frozen potatoes
hides and tallow
sugar
cheese
meat packing
meat packing
hides & tallow
dehydrated potatoes
fluid milk, butter,
dairy specialty pdts
potato starch
potato starch
frozen potatoes
frozen potatoes
potato starch
cheese
potatoes
sugar
cheese
sugar
potato alcohol, cattle
feed
cheese
frozen vegetables
cheese, ice cream
cheese
cheese, ice cream
fluid milk
(continued on next page)
-------
C-25
Table VIII (Continued)
Firm Name Location
Home Dairies, Inc. Twin Falls
Idaho Creameries, Inc. Twin Falls
Custom Packing Co. Twin Falls
Independent Meat Co. Twin Falls
York Packing Co. Twin Falls
Magic Valley Processing Co. Twin Falls
Twin Falls Flour Mill Twin Falls
Red River Starch Co. Twin Falls
J. R. Simplot & Co. Twin Falls
Twin Falls Starch Plant Twin Falls
Idaho Frozen Foods Twin Falls
Amalgamated Sugar Co. Twin Falls
Idaho Hide & Tallow Co. Twin Falls
Product or process
fluid milk
fluid milk
meat packing
meat packing
meat packing
potato starch
flour
potato starch
potato starch
potato starch
frozen vegetables
sugar
hides & tallow
a/ Sources: Idaho Industrial Directory, 1960-61, Idaho State Chamber of
Commerce, Boise; Atlas of the Pacific Northwest, 3d Edition (1962), Oregon
State University, Corvallis; U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, Boise.
-------
C-26
By providing a ready market for agricultural output, food
processing has influenced the agricultural economy of the area. Sugar beets
and potatoes, crops processed in the area, have been produced in steadily
rising amounts. Potato-processing, a relatively new development, has had a
particularly immediate effect on farming, with the major portion of new irri-
gated land in the Upper Snake Basin going into the production of that crop;
potato acreage in southern Idaho (the bulk of production originates east of
Twin Falls) increased from 200,000 acres in 1959 to 259,000 acres in 1962.1/
The market for processed potatoes has grown steadily, and
would appear to have caused greater consumption of potatoes, since shipments
of bulk potatoes have remained relatively unaffected by the development of
the processed product. Because eastern Idaho has distinct advantages in
potato culture, producing a high yield of a superior product, a large part of
the national supply is produced in the region. So rapid has been the rise in
demand for potato products that processors have been forced to ship in a part
of their needs from other states, in spite of the increased acreage devoted to
the crop in Idaho. The Idaho Employment Security Agency has noted, in an un-
published report, that "in 1962 the potato processing industry claims to have
several hundred more employees than shown...for the whole (food processing)
group in 1960." The speed with which potato processing has grown is suggested
in Table IX.
V U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, Boise, Idaho.
-------
C-27
TABLE IX
GROWTH OF IDAHO POTATO PROCESSING, 1954 - 1962
Year
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
Idaho Crop
(1,000 CWT)
26,608
33,188
33,730
39,018
45,568
42,408
43,078
57,734
Processed
(1,000 CWT)
4,553
8,668
9.759
12,364
16,568
15,598
20,093
25,617
Processing as %
of Production
17.1
26.2
29.9
31.7
36.4
36.6
46.6
44.3
Imported
(1,000 CWT)
67
115
36
87
148
562
1,474
1,094
Processing as
% of 1954
100
191
214
273
365
343
442
563
Area I, indeed the entire Upper Snake Basin, has an employment
and production pattern based on the agricultural cycle. Food processing, the
major manufacturing industry, also displays seasonal characteristics, since it
is dependant on farm output for its raw materials. To a considerable extent,
the patterns of activity in food processing and farming are interlocking
rather than conflicting. The high point in food processing employment occurs
after the harvest, the low point during the summer, when agriculture is near
its seasonal employment peak. Labor requirements of the two types of pro-
duction may,, to a considerable extent, be met from the same pool of farm
workers, since demands for labor coincide only during the September-October
harvest season, when food processing plants begin to operate near their high
range of output. This farm employment is high from April into October; while
peak-activity in food processing, as measured by employment, occurs in the
fourth quarter, tapers off moderately in the first quarter, and is low from
May to September.
a/ Idaho Potato Processing - 1961 Crop: U. S. Dept. of Agriculture
Statistical Reporting Service, Boise, August, 1962.
-------
C-28
The chart on the following page presents swings in food processing
and agricultural employment for the years 1960, 1961, and 1962. The data,
drawn from the Idaho Employment Security Agency, may overstate the secular de-
cline in agricultural employment, since 1961 and 1962 estimates of agricultural
employment were made on a revised basis, and are not strictly compatible with
1960. It should be noted that the figures on the chart refer to covered em-
ployment for the state as a whole, and not specifically to either Area I or
the Upper Snake Basin. In spite of these deficiencies, it is believed that
the charts portray rather faithfully the general nature of seasonal forces in
the major economic activities of the region.
CHART
(on next page)
-------
029
AGRICULTURAL EL!?LOYiLi2iT (in 1,000's)
FOOD. PROCESSING ElPLOKiS'iT (in 1,000's)
r*
i-•. c;'^^;l IT r>ii \ p A ^.-p-? jro-n~"c ov T" • ::A •. r'-'T'rri' /~;" o "•
i-..-~>v...-.u o...-iri.Xwi.-j/Lj.c)xJLVO v^^ i.y.-.:.u >._-..j.^/:Ji.it-rx^j
curo-i: Idaho E~ploy.-sr.t Sscui-ity Agency
//.sr
7.S"
I
-------
C-30
Service activities grew moderately in Area I of the Upper Snake
Basin during the decade 1950-1960. While employment in production industries-
agriculture, mining, construction and manufacturing - declined 1.8 percent,
service employment rose 12.3 percent. The rise was concentrated in Twin Falls,
the service center for the surrounding agricultural area, and in the food-
processing towns, Burley and Rupert. Wholesals trade, largely resting on
regional agricultural production, employed a significantly higher than average
portion of the labor force. Transportation and utilities, too, absorb an un-
usually high part of the labor force - a result of both the need to ship in
most manufactured goods and of the transportation and warehousing requirements
of the agricultural product. The concentration of retail and personal service
employment may be traced in part to the Sun Valley recreation area.
Miscellaneous manufacturing activities showed distinct employment
growth. Like services, the health of such industries is frequently a function
of population growth and urbanization: as the size of the local market grows,
markets become sufficient to permit production of previously imported items.
Construction employment dropped, both as a percentage of the
labor force and in absolute terms, but remained somewhat above the national
average. The presence of the main office of several large contracting firms
in Twin Falls is responsible in part for the high level of construction
employment.
Table X indicates the trend of economic change, as reflected
in employment, between 1950 and 1960.
TABLE X
(on next page)
-------
C-31
TABLE X
AREA I: EMPLOYMENT TRENDS, 1950-1960
Employment
Employment as
% Labor Force
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960.
b/ includes the category 'hospitals'.
c/ includes the category 'forestry and fisheries'.
Percent Total
Change
Industry
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
lumber and pdts.
other durables
food & kindred
chemical
other non-durables
Transportation
Comtns & utility
IwPlesale trade
Retail trade
Fin. , bus. & repair
Personal service
Education
Other professional b/
Public Administration
Industry not reported £/
EMPLOYMENT
Unemployment
LABOR FORCE
1950
12,834
201
2,426
103
209
872
53
299
1,432
1,074
1,738
5,633
1,780
2,769
1,364
1,129.
1,051
528
35,495
1,432
36,927
1960
10,932
61
2,369
130
468
2,006
119
540
1,663
1,178 -
1,793
5,957
1,809
2,824
1,698
1,737
1,256
969
37,509
1,472
38,981
1950
34.8
.5
6.6
.3
. .5
2.3
.1
.8
3.9
2.9
4.7
15.2
4.8
7.5
3.7
3.0
2.8
1.4
96.1
3.9
100.0
1960
28.0
.2
6.1
.3
1.2
5.1
.3
1.3
4.2
3.0
4.6
15.3
4.6
7.2
4.3
4.4
3.2
2.5
96.2
3.8
100.0
1950 1960
-14.9
-70.0
- 2.6
26.2
123.9
130.0
124.5
80.6
16.1
9.7
3.1
5.7
1.6
1.9
24.5
53.7
19.5
83.3
5.6
2.8
5.5
-------
C-32
.3. Area II
Area II was the fastest growing part of Idaho during the 1950-60
period. Due.to the fast development of several major industries, a diversified
economic base has been created, in which agriculture plays a far less important
part than in other Upper Snake areas. Table XI lists employment by industry at
April, 1960 for each of the counties in the Area. Table XVI describes employ-
ment trends of the Area.
Agriculture is the principal user of labor, with total employment
in 1960 exceeding that of all manufacturing. A steep (19.7%) decline in employ-
ment in agriculture took place between 1950 and 1960, however, as a result of
the same complex of circumstances that affected agriculture in Area I. Land in
farms and irrigation increased at about the same rate in both Area I and Area II;
but farm consolidation took place at a much more rapid pace in Area II, and
there was decidely more emphasis on grazing in Area II. Potatoes and sugar
beets were the principal sources of crop expansion; but forage output also
rose and a collateral increase in cattle feeding occurred. Long a forage-
export area, eastern Idaho is beginning to exhibit a tendency to feed a larger
number of cattle for longer periods of time, i/
Table XII indicates some of the changes in Area II agriculture
between 1949 and 1959.
V County Agriculture Extension Agents in most of the region actively pro-
mote this trend. Several financial spokesmen contacted during the summer of
1962 felt that increased cattle feeding and meat packing would be the area's
principal source of near term industrial growth. Mr. S." M. Meikle, Jr.,
president of the Idaho Falls Bank of Commerce, noted a fifty percent increase
in cattle feeding among his customers between 1961 and 1962. Reports of the
Department of Agriculture's Statistical Reporting Service indicated a regular
month-to-month rise in comparative numbers of cattle on feed for the state as
a whole during 1962.
-------
co
oo
I
TABLE XI
AREA II COUNTIES: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION, APRIL, 1960
Group II
Industry Butte Bingham Power Bannock Caribou Bonneville Total
Agriculture 351 2,320 540 922 705 1,698 . 6,536
Forestry & fisheries 10 40 4 9 63
Mining 7 51 42 8 108
Construction 191 599 54 1,190 111 1,223 3,368
Manufacturing, total 114 1,313 54 1,736 278 2,443 5,938
lumber & wood pdts. 8 20 36 54 118
primary & fab. metal 47 91 41 143
machinery 44 3 99 57 203
transport, eqpt. 11 26 8 45
other durables 50 133 180 363
food & kindred 4 764 557 19 917 2,261
printing & publishing 4 51 5 162 12 217 451
chemicals 86 319 46 582 235 908 2,176
other non-durables 8 47 50 12 61 178
Transportation 21 458 86 2,948 , 67 532 4,112
Communication & utilities . 22 81 30 552 102 436 1,345
Wholesale trade 38 405 31 558 31 1,096 2,159
Retail trade 133 1,212 234 2,985 307 3,185 8,056
Financial, business, repair 132 577 55 1,254 66 2,090 4,174
Personal service 39 543 56 962 98 1,126 2,824
Hospitals 12 327 33 358 24 411 1,165
Education 57 491 78 1,285 128 827 2;866
Other professional 30 179 17 640 49 704 1,519
Industry not reported 14 170 52 347 8 424 1,015
Public administration 65 411 76 815 68 947 2,382
Unemployed 79 389 35 867 . 126 . 715 2,211
Total Labor Force 1,298 9,614 1,431 17,510 2,214 17,774 49,841
i/ -U. S.^nsus of Population, 1960.
-------
TABLE XII i/
AREA II COUNTIES: AGRICULTURAL TRENDS, 1949
Butte Bingnam
-1959
No. of Farms
Land in Farms
(acres)
Avg. Size/
Farms (acres)
Land Irrigated
(acres)
Land Harvested
(acres)
Grains " "
(1000 bushels)
Sugar beets "
(tons)
Potaotes " "
(1000 CWT)
Value crops
sold (1000 $)
Pasture
(acres)
Value livestock k/
sold (1000 $)
Value dairy pdts.
sold (1000 $)
/
1949
.1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
237
245
155,767
165,758
657.2
676.6
30,591
34,085
28,568
32,330
429
543
.7
227
426
856
1,554
102,813
112,142
1,191
1,447
75
82
2,158
1,985
585,720
998,752
271.4
503.1
157,981
225,892
175,185
203,860
2,317
3,833
68,338
92,961
4,331
8,515
11,743
23,222
304,997
690,092
5,870
9,307
1,860
2,329
388
339
408,325
411,978
1,052.4
1,215.3
10,868
26,915
146,184
139,487
2,455
2,612
1,822
11,641
175
995
4,187
5,616
88,842
102,355
699
1,656
148
182
i*r M i i i i w w '\
927
734
369,574
461 ,059
398.7
628.1
36,905
42,193
97,188
106,920
1,781
2,048
33,811
57,933
359
540
3,546
4,318
176,570
231,193
1,512
4,029
659
805
V^UI 1 UVJU
593
545
414,643
573,403
699.2
1,052.1
41 ,360
51,882
145,992
150,485
3,082
2,981
785
6,535
94
258
3,856
4,000
166,986
305,298
2,187
2,854
396 '
633
DUIUIKV MM
1,538
1,255
517,275
548,094
336.3
436.7
108,509
119,393
191,561
190,766
2,862
3,568
31,763
37,940
3,079
4,371
8,942
13,874
181 ,'435
190,544
3,644
5,175
908
. 1,594
3 area 11
5,841
5,103
2,451,324
3,159,044
419.8
619.0
386,574
500,360
784,678
823,848
12,926
15,585
137,179
207,010
8,266
15,107
33,131
52,584
1,021,643
1,631,624
15,104
24,467
4,047
5,626
Change
-12.6%
28.9%
47.4%
29.4%
4.9%
20.5%
50.9%
70.6%
58.7%
59.7%
61.9%
39.0%
I/ U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1954, 1959
b/_ Indues poultry and products does not include dairy p^ucts.
-------
C-35
Growth of food processing has been pronounced. Small dairies,
creameries, and meat packing plants, and the steadily growing sugar industry,
have been joined by the potato-processing industry to create a dramatic increase
in food manufacturing. While the potato and sugar have been major sources of
growth in food processing over the last decade, meat packing activities are
beginning to rise, complimenting the increase in herds and cattle feeding, and
may come to provide a third significant source of food processing employment. I/
Major food processing plants in Area II are listed in Table XIII.
TABLE XIII
(on next page)
j7Although the competitive effects of price levels under different supply
circumstances exerts a cyclical pressure on Idaho feeding and slaughter, there
has been a moderate upward trend in recent years. For the first ten months of
1962 commercial livestock slaughter was six percent higher than in the same
period of 1961, compared to a two percent national increase.
-------
C-36
TABLE XIII !.
AREA II: AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS, 1962
Firm Name
Kraft Foods Co.
Idaho Potato Growers, Inc.
Idaho Potato Starch Co.
Lost River Cheese Factory
Cherry Packing Plant
Hopkins Packing Co.
Johnson Packing House
Ray's Abbattoir
Blackfoot Creamery Co.
Howe11 Creamery Co.
Kraft Foods Co.
Idaho Potato Starch Co.
J. R. Simplot Co.
Utah-Idaho Sugar Co.
Gem Valley Swiss Cheese Co.
Grace Cheese Factory ,
Idaho Falls Meat Co.
Jay's Processing Service
Location
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
Arco
Blackfoot
Blackfoot
Blackfoot
Blackfoot
Blackfoot
Blackfoot
Blackfoot
Blackfoot
Blackfoot
Blackfoot
Grace
Grace
Idaho Falls
Idaho Falls
Rushton Bros. Custom Butchering Idaho Falls
Taylor Meat Co.
Upper Snake River .Valley
Dairymen's Assoc.
Yellowstone Dairy
All Star Dairy
Challenge Creamery
Cream Top Dairy
Dairyland
Eastern Idaho Dairy
Rocky Mt. Dairy Supply Co.
Rowland Bros. Dairy
Wallace Dairy
American Potato Co.
Idaho Potato Growers, Inc.
Midland Elevator Co.
Rogers Bros. Co.
Clement Bros. & Ball Bros.
Idaho Potato Starch Co.
Menan Starch Co.
Utah-Idaho Sugar Co.
Idaho Falls Animal Pdts. Co.
Kitchen Queen Food Products
People's Market
Swift & Co.
Idaho Falls
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Idaho
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Falls
Fa Vis
Fails
Falls
Falls
Falls
Ppcatello
Pocatello
Product or process
cheese
frozen potatoes
potato starch
cheese
meat packing
meat packing
meat packing
meat packing
creamery butter
creamery butter
cheese
potato starch
dehydrated potatoes
beet sugar
cheese
cheese
meat packing
meat packing
meat packing
meat packing
creamery butter, fluid milk
cheese, ice cream, sp. dair
fluid milk
fluid milk
fluid milk
fluid milk
fluid milk
fluid milk
fluid milk
fluid milk
dehydrated potatoes
dehydrated & frozen potatoes
flour
potato flour
potato starch
potato starch
potato starch
beet sugar
grease & tallow
specialty foods
meat packing
meat packing
-------
C-37
Table XIII (Continued)
Firm Name Location Product or process
Zwiegart Packing Co. Pocatello meat packing
Idaho Creameries, Inc. Pocatello ice cream, fluid milk
Cream Top Dairy Pocatello fluid milk
Hopper Dairy Pocatello fluid milk
Rocky Mountain Dairy Pocatello fluid milk
Rowland Bros. Dairy Pocatello fluid milk
Clover Club Foods Co. Pocatello specialty foods
Stanley's Better Food Pdts. Pocatello specialty foods
Wattenbarger Meat Packer Shelley meat packing
R.. T. Drench Co. Shelley dehydrated potatoes
Rogers Bros. Co. Shelley dehydrated potatoes,
potato starch
Utah-Idaho Sugar Co. Shelley beet sugar
Soda Springs Creamery Soda Springs creamery butter, fluid milk
a/ Sources:Idaho Industrial Director. 1960-61, Idaho State Chamber of
Commerce, Boise; Atlas of the Pacific Northwest, 3d edition (1962), Oregon
State University, Corvallis, Oregon; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Boise.
Transportation stands second only to agriculture as a user of
labor in this part of eastern Idaho. Although transportation employment dropped
about 16.5 percent between 1950 and 1960, it still occupied over eight percent
of the total Area II labor force in the latter year. Pocatello, as the site
of Union Pacific yards, terminals and shops, the main office of Garrett Freight-
lines, and depots of six other truckers, represents the principal concentration
of transportation facilities in the State. The city's location, at the inter-
section of the northern and southern routes through the Rockies, makes it a
natural gateway between the Pacific Northwest states and the East, and between
the northern Midwest states and California, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming; and it is
in its function of being the principal northern intra-mountain depot of the Union
Pacific that Pocatello received much of its early growth. The falling level
of transportation employment does not reflect a drop in the city's importance
as a depot; ra-ther, it must be related to national trends toward improved
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C-38
efficiency and falling labor requirements by railroads.
Pocatello is largely responsible, too, for the region's high level
of employment in education. Idaho State College is located there. Granting
degrees in Liberal Arts, Education, and Pharmacy, the school's 1961 enrollment
of 2,700 made it the largest educational institution in the eastern Idaho-
Montana region. >
The principal impetus of growth in Area II in recent years has been
received from the chemical industry. The phosphate industry and the AEC's Arco
Nuclear Reactor Project - based, respectively, on Pocatello and Idaho Falls -
each contributed to expansion of the Upper Sanke in probably the same measure
as did the growth of potato processing.
The Idaho phosphate industry is located largely within Area II of
the Upper Snake Basin, and constitutes a significant part of the national phos-
phate industry. In terms of physical output of phosphate rock, Idaho in 1960
provided 12.5 percent of the national total.
The Upper Snake phospahte industry is built on extensive reserves
of phosphate-bearing materials in Bingham County, near the Fort Hall Indian
Reservation, and in Caribou County, near the town of Soda Springs which pro-
duce both elemantal phosphorus and fertilizers. Table XIV liists the phosphate
operations in Area II.
TABLE XIV
(on next page)
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C-39
TABLE XIV
PHOSPHATE MINES AND PLANTS, 1960 a/
Firm name Location Facility
San Franciso Chemical Co. Caribou County mine
J. R, Simplot Co. Caribou County mine
Bingham County (Fort Hall) mine
Bannock Cty. (Pocatello) fertilizer plant
Monsanto Chemical Co. Caribou Cty. (Soda Springs) mine
Caribou Cty. (Soda Springs) elemental phosphorus
FMC Co. Bannock Cty. (Pocatello) elemental phosphorus
a/ Bureau of Mines: 1960 Minerals Yearbook, Vol. Ill
Phosphate demand has grown rapidly since World War II, spurred by
greater use in fertilizers and by the soaring requirements of detergents pro-
duction. While national production has slowed somewhat in recent years - re-
flecting the comparative maturity of phosphate-based products - the Idaho
industry has continued to grow at a rate that, although somewhat uneven,
approximates the ten percent growth rate experienced by the industry as a whole
during the postwar period. Table XV compares production of phosphate rock in
Idaho and in the United States during the period 1955-60.
TABLE XV
PHOSPHATE ROCK PRODUCTION, 1955-1960 I/
U. S. Production Change from Idaho Production Change from Idaho as
Year (1,000 long tons) Year before (1.000 long tons) Year before % of U.S.
1955 12,265
1956 15,747
1957 13,976
1958 14,879
1959 15,867
1960 17,516
a/ Minerals Yearbook,
27.6%
-10.9
6.5
6.8
10.0
Vol. Ill, 1958-1960:
1,330
1,438
1,307
1,291
1,610
2,177
Bureau
8.2%
-9.0
-1.5
24.8
35.2
of Mines
10.8
9.2
9.3
8.7
10.1
12.4
The table indicates that the Idaho phosphate industry experi-
enced a 10.5 percent annual rate of growth during the period, compared to a
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C-40
seven percent annual rate natioanlly. Since the cost of raw material trans-
portation requires that the industry be an integrated one, it may be assumed
that increases in phosphate rock production have been generally matched by
rising output of elemental phosphate and fertilizers - an assumption that is
reinforced by annual additions to plant capacity among the various processors.
Measured by employment in the chemical industry, production of elemental
phosphorus and fertilizers has advanced at a startling pace. The 196 persons
engaged in the chemical industry in Bannock County in 1950 had grown to 582 in
1960. In Caribou County the rise was from none to 235. This, the two counties
experienced a combined rise in employment in the chemical industry on the order
of fifteen percent a year. —'
While the greatest direct effect of the phosphate industry on
employment occurred in manufacturing, mining employment too has risen sub-
stantially. Reports issued by the Idaho Employment Security Agency conflict
with the U. S. Census figures that indicate a drop in mining employment in
Bingham and Caribou Counties between 1950 and 1960. —' Where the census
reported a total of 49 persons engaged in mining in the two counties in 1960,
the state agency reported an employment range for the year of 80 to 144
(quarterly average employment). In 1961 the range rose to 158 to 540. Through
1961 and 1962, employment in mining in each of the two counties continued to
rise, with seasonally cyclical variations.
]_/ It should be noted, however, that the area's first elemental phosphorus
plant was completed in 1949, so growth reflects the high rates characteristic
of an infant industry.
27 Idaho Labor Market, monthly, 1960 through November, 1962, Boise.
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C-41
In distinction to the phosphate industry, which grew from a
natural resource, the Arco Nuclear Reactor Project appears to have been
established in response to an absence of resources. The conflicting require-
ments of the project, that its potentially dangerous nuclear reactors be will
away from areas of settlement, yet that its numerous employees be provided with
adequate living circumstances, made its location an ideal one. The various
reactor stations are spread about a rough triangle of arid lava desert some
forty-two miles on its eastern boundary, narrov/ing from about thirty-one miles
along its southern base to about eleven miles at its peak. The town of Arco,
eight miles from the western boundary of the project, is the nearest settled
place. Idaho Falls, where the administrative offices of the project are
located, and where 75 percent of its employees are believed to reside, is
about twenty-five miles from its eastern boundary.
The presence of the project, with employment of about 2,300 in
1962, together with the addition of construction employment resulting from
frequent expansion, has been enormously important to the Idaho Falls area.
Population has increased markedly in every town on the periphery of the
project, in distinction to the trend observed elsewhere in the region for
rural towns to decline with declining farm populations. I/ Even more signifi-
cant than the raw increase in numbers has been the effect of the infusion, into
the population of a large number of highly paid and highly educated technicians.
Where the median income of families and unrelated individuals increased about
fifty percent in Pocatello, Twin Falls, and Boise. It doubled between 1950.
]_/ Of the 16 Upper Snake Basin towns with 1950 populations under 1,000 that
grew between 1950 and 1960, no less than nine were located on the fringes of
the Arco Project; Manan, Ririe, Roberts in Jefferson County; Ammon, Irwin, Ucon,
lona in Bonneville County; Arco and Moore in Butte County.
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C-42
and 1960 in Idaho Falls, to give the city the highest median income of any Idaho
incorporated place. I/
The effects of rapid growth of manufacturing in Area II are
noticeable not only in the industries directly concerned and in population,
but are manifested in the level of employment in secondary industries. Whole-
sale trade expanded markedly between 1950 and 1960 with the growth of food
processing. As in Area I, secondary manufacturing industries recorded employ-
ment gains well above the level of population increase. Retail trade employment
increased at the same 2.4 percent annual rate as population. Business and pro-
fessional services jumped far more sharply than population, reflecting increas-
ing urbanization and diversity of occupations and interest. Table XVI lists
employment by industry in Area II at April 1950 and April 1960, to provide a
basis for assessing the nature of change in the economic base of the area.
]_/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960.
TABLE XVI
(on next page)
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C-43
TABLE XVI
AREA II: EMPLOYMENT TRENDS, 1950-1960 &
a/
Industry
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
lumber and pdts.
other durables
food & kindred
chemical & allied
other non-durable
Transportation
Comctns & utility
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Fin. Bus. & repair
Personal service
Education
Other professional £/
Public admin.
Industry not reported £/
EMPLOYMENT
Unemployment
LABOR'FORCE
a/ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960.
b/ of discussion on page 40.
c/ Includes category 'hospitals'.
d/ Encludes category 'forestry & fisheries'
Employment
1950 1960
8,142
164
3,211
128
310
1,096
237
458
4,921
1,001
1,567
6,332
2,049
2,264
1,630
1,586
1,459
517
37,072
1,875
38,947
6,536
108k/
3,368
118
754
2,261
2,176
629
4,112
1,345
2,159
8,056
4,174
2,824
2,866
2,684
2,382
1,078
47,630
2,211
49,841
Employment as
% Labor Force
1950 1960
20.9
.4
8.3
.3
.8
2.9
.6
1.2
12.6
2.6
4.0
16.3
5.3
5.8
4.2
4.1
3.8
1.3
95.2
4.8
13.1
.2
6.3
.2
1.5
4.5
4.3
1.3
8.2
2.7
4.3
16.1
8.4
5.6
5.7
5.4
4.8
2.2
95.6
4.4
Percent
Total
Change
1950-60
-19.7
-34.2k/
4.9
-7.8
143.2
106.1
819.0
37.3
-16.4
34.4
37.7
27.4
103.4
24.8
76.0
68.6
63.2
108.4
28.6
18.4
28.1
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C-44
4. Area III
Table XVII lists employment by industry categories for each
Area III county at April, 1960. Table XX describes employment trends for the
area.
Agriculture is the chief employer of labor in this sparsely
settled area, occupying 32.6 percent of the labor force in 1960, the highest
level of agricultural specialization in the Upper Snake Basin. The prevailing
trends to farm consolidation, extension of irrigation, and shifting of crop
emphasis to potatoes that marked other parts of the basin were also prevalent
in Area III during the last decade. But though the underlying trends v/ere
the same, the area's high level of dependence on agriculture made their
effects more extreme. Agricultural employment fell 22.4 percent, and the
area's population was scarcely changed during the ten-year period. Additions
to farm land were far more moderate than in other parts of the basin; and
extension of irrigation was more apt to take the form of putting water on
dry-farmed land than of bringing new land under cultivation. Increased
grazing was less noticeable than in Area I and Area II, even though much of
Teton, Clark, and Fremont Counties is mountainous and not suited to other
agricultural pursuits. Such additon to grazing land and herds as did occur
was often devoted to dairy-farming; between 1949 and 1959 salies of dairy
products rose from 6.8 percent of the value of farm products sold to nine
percent of a substantially higher value of products sold. Table XVIII lists
changes in the agricultural economy of the area.
TABLE XVII
(on next page)
-------
un
sf
I
Industry
Agriculture
Forestry, fish., mining
Construction
Manufacturing, total
lumber & wood pdts.
primary & fab. metal
machinery & tsptn. eqpt.
other durables
food & kindred
printing & publishing
chemical
other non-durables
Transportation
Communications & utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Financial, bus., repair
Personal services
Hospitals
Education
Other professional
Public administration
Industry not reported
Unemployed
Total Labor Force
TABLE XVII
AREA III COUNTIES: EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION, APRIL,
Fremont
836
23
171
165
58
5
72
9
5
12
186
67
220
424
87
160
53
196
46
137
70
116
2,957
Jefferson
1,413
299
336
8
4
12
8
197
18
77
12
136
53
222
513
283
190
53
197
87
141
67
134
4,124
Madison
987
202
140
12
12
15
86
12
3
159
82
192
495
163
184
27
368
74
124
45
137
3,379
Teton
408
3
26
61
12
39
10
..
21
11
26
80
24
31
13
92
4
34
23
25
882
Clarl
167
15
6
12
3
26
3
13
31
37
14
26
353
1960 *
Area Total
3,811
41
704
702
90
4
24
28
394
49
82
27
514
213
663
1,538
560
578
146
884
211
473
219
438
11,695
aj - U. S. Census of population, 1960.
-------
(O
TABLE XVIII
No. of Farms
Land in Farms
(acres)
Avge. Size/Farms
(acres)
Land Irrigated
(acres)
Land Harvested
(acres)
Grains "
(1000 bushels)
Sugar beets "
(tons)
Potatoes " "
(1000 CWT)
Value crops sold
(1000 $)
Pasture
(acres)
Value livestock!!'
sold (1000 $)
Value dairy pdts.
sold (1000 $)
a/ -u. S. AMISUS of
b/ Incluc^P poultry
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
1949
1959
AREA
Jefferson
1,255 "
1,134
311,576
340,616
248.4
300.4
101,852
136,555
104,150
126,240
1,292
2,209
14,236
12,250
1,692
3,509
5,062
10,857
160,853
170,858
2,770
3,800
730
1,690
Agriculture, 1954,
and products, does
III COUNTIES: AGRICULTURAL TRENDS, 1949-1959 2J
Madison
891
682
•317,920
357,361
356.8
526.8
58,688
66,043
112,249
110,325
1,760
2,459
6,318
11,807
1,271
..1,887
4,655
7,017
123,571
159,282
1,870
2,406
462
1,095
Teton
459
399
198,282
199,988
432.0
501.2
33,152
35,972
76,378
67,188
849
1,021
168
164
1,465
1,555
68,146
84,517
1,175
1,342
341
555
1959 .
not include dairy
Clark
84
61
244,633
212,083
2,912.3
3,476.8
9,453
10,374
17,518
15,710
115
187
34
66
229
441
222,019
187,175
1,335
709
25
17
pr^Rcts.
Fremont
832
740
362,088
411,310
435.2
555.8
61,268
67,656
117,826
107,466
1,795
2,346
656
2,084
1,432
2,356
5,225
7,620
161,413
218,909
1,709
3,535:
305
501
Area III
3,521
3,016
1,434,679
1,521,358
407.4
504.4
264,413
316,600
428,121
426,929
5,811
8,221
21,210
26,141
4,597
8,982
16,636
27,221
736,002
820,741
8,859
11,793
1,862
3,857
Change
-14.3%
6.0%
23.8%
19.7%
-.2%
41.4%
23.2%
95.3%
63.6%
11.5%
• 33.1%
107.1%
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C-47
Food processing has not displayed the same extensive growth
in Area III that it has in other parts of the Upper Snake Basin. The region is
smaller, both geographically and in population, and its agricultural output is
less than that of Area I or Area II. Cheese producers at Ashton, St. Anthony,
Rine, Rexburg (two plants), Richfield, and Victor represented the main sources
of food processing employment prior to 1961, and help to explain the emphasis
on dairying in the area. The emplacement of potato-processing plants in Rexburg
and Lewisville in 1961 represented a major addition to manufacturing in the
area, though the former plant closed after a single season of operation. Table
XIX lists major food processing plants in Area III.
TABLE XIX
(on next page)
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C-48
TABLE XIX £
AREA III: AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS, 1962
Firm Name
Ashton Cheese Factory
Engberson Creamery
Teton Valley Power & Milling Co.
Fresh-Pak Potatoes, Inc.
Parker Potato Corp.
Remington & Sons
Pelton Meat Co.
Nelson Ricks Creamery Co.
Upper Snake River Valley
Dairymen's Assn.
Rogers Bros, Co.
St. Anthony Starch Co.
Clay Rushton
Stowell Dairy
Utah-Idaho Sugar Co.
Kraft Foods Co.
Ruthardt Slaughter House
Hopperdietzel Cheese Factory
St. Anthony Flour Mills
St. Anthony Starch Co.
Nelson Ricks Creamery Co.
Location
Ashton
Driggs
Driggs
Lewisville
Parker
Parker
Rexburg
Rexburg
Rexburg
Rexburg
Rexburg
Rigby
Rigby
Rigby
Ririe
St. Anthony
St. Anthony
St. Anthony
St. Anthony
Victor
Product or process
cheese, ice cream
fluid milk
flour
dehydrated potatoes
canned potatoes
canned potatoes
meat packing
cheese, fluid milk
cheese, fluid milk
frozen & dehydrated
potatoes
potato starch
meat packing
fluid milk
beet sugar
cheese
meat packing
cheese
flour
potato starch
cheese, fluid milk
a./ Sources: Idaho Industrial Director, 1960-61, Idaho State Chamber of
Commerce, Boise: Atlas of the Pacific Northwest, 3d edition (1962), Oregon
State University, Corvallis, Ore.; U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, Boise.
There is in Area III a high relative level of employment in
education, due to the presence of Ricks College, a two-year Latter Day Saints
school in Rexburg, and a state vocational training school in St. Anthony.
Manufacturing, other than food-processing, is of negligible
importance in the area, though some growth of lumbering, based on the timber
of Targhes National Forest, h-.s occurred very recently. Service employment
constitutes an exceptionally high proportion of total employment for an agri-
cultural area. This may be attributed in part to the presence of Ricks
College and in part to the proximity of Yellowstone National Park. The route
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C-49
to the western entrance to Yellowstone passes through the main towns of Area
III, and tourist expenditures contribute substantially to the service activi-
ties of the region, i/
The development of the regional employment pattern has been un-
eventful, as suggested in Table XX on the following page. Falling farm employ-
ment has been replaced by service occupations and growth of food processing. A
modest net gain in number of jobs has been paralleled by the entry of women
into the labor force - largely in food processing occupations - with the net
result being little change in population, but some rise in family income.
TABLE XX
(on next page)
I/ In 1962 (season ends in September) a record 1,889,516 persons visited
Yellowstone. Although no measure of the income derived by this part of Idaho
from tourists is known to exist, residents are well aware of the importance of
tourism. Grocers in Rexburg and St. Anthony indicated in interviews that almost
half of their trade occurred from June to September; motel operators suggested
over 75%. The town barber in St. Anthony declared that tourists carried him
through the summer school vacation period, when many mothers cut their children's
hair. And the manager of the St. Anthony branch of the First Security Bank of
Idaho revealed an interesting personal index of tourism: residents of the area
prefer silver dollars, so excess paper currency is shipped to Federal Reserve
Banks. For several years such shipments have been more than twice as high
during the summer months as during the rest of the year.
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C-50
TABLE XX
AREA III: EMPLOYMENT TRENDS, 1950-60 -'
a/
Employment
Employment as
% Labor Force
Industry
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
lumber & pdts.
other durable goods
food & kindred .
chemical & allied
other non-durable
Transportation
Communications & utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Financial, bus., repair
Personal service
Education
Other professional W
Public administration
Industry not reported £/
EMPLOYMENT
Unemployment
LABOR FORCE
1950
4,912
11
632
80
46
188
4
48
433
220
.506
1,360
377
452
575
255
328
242
10,669
289
10,958
1960
3,811
0
704
90
56
394
82
80
514
213
663
1,538
560
578
884
357
473
260
11,257
438
11,695
1950
44.8
.1
5.8
.7
.4
1.7
.4
3.9
2.0
4.6
12.4
3.4
4.1
5.2
2.3
3.0
2.2
97.4
2.6
100.0
1960
32.5
0
6.1
.8
.5
3.3
.7
.7
4.4
1.8
5.6
13.1
4.8
4.9
7.5
3.0
4.0
2.2
96.3
3.7
100.0
Change
-22.4%
.-100.0%
11.4
12.5
21.8
109.0
1,950.0
66.6
18.7
-3.8
31.0
13.1
48.6
27.9
53.7
40.0
44.2
7.4
5.5
51.6
6.7
a./ U. S. Census of Population, 1950, 1960
b/ Includes category 'hospitals'
cj Includes category 'forestry & fisheries'.
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C-51
III. GROWTH POTENTIALS AND FORECAST
A. Factors Influencing Future Growth
1. Underlying Assumptions
In the absence of a larger framework of study, a number of broad
assumptions about the national economy must be included in any forecast of
regional economic activity. The projections included in this report are based
on these assumptions:
(a) National population dimensions will be consistent with the
U. S. Bureau of Census projection, Series II. It should be noted that Series II
is the higher of the two population projections which are now considered to be
most probable.
(b) National output per person (i.e. gross national product per
capita in constant dollars) will continue to rise at the 1.4 percent rate which
has characterized U. S. production in this century.
(c) The employment act of 1946 will continue to be funda-
mental of domestic policy, and employment will generally include 96 percent
of the civilian labor force.
(d) A continuing rise in productivity will be balanced by
shorter average working hours, later entry into, and earlier retirement from
the labor force; this employment as a percentage of population will be un-
changed from 1960, in spite of additional entry of women into the labor force..!/
(e) Social and political conditions are assumed to be sub-
stantially the same as in 1960. Thus there is no provision for either major
iy This may be a question-begging assumption. The possibility of very rapid
increases in productivity may carry the prospect of radical shrinkage of em-
ployment, and the need to develop new techniques of income distribution. Such
questions are well beyond the scope of this study.
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C-52
war or a final end to international tensions; it is felt that increasing urban-
ization will continue to result in greater employment by service industries,
and that federal government policies will continue to be crucial to the de-
velopment of Idaho. A/ ,
2. Agriculture
In the future the relative importance of agriculture will de-
cline in the Upper Snake Basin, continuing a trend in force for a number of
years. But though agriculture will account for a smaller part of total employ-
ment and income, due to the growth of industrial and service activities, agri-
cultural output will continue to increase through application of superior
techniques and through addition to farm land.
Extension of irrigation may be expected to slow as the
arable areas possessing adequate water become increasingly utilized. To 1985,
Bureau of Reclamation efforts should provide 50,000 to 55,000 added areas of
irrigated land. Individual farmers, pumping ground water, should provide an-
other 300,000 acres, with Jefferson, Madison and Bormeville Counties probably
somewhat faster in adding to irrigation than other parts of the basin. Be-
tween 1985 and 2010 individual farm irrigation extensions may be expected to
become far less significant due to the rising costs, and relative scarcity
of, available water. The combination of a larger population with a fixed
supply of arable land should require more ambitious water interchange projects
and the Bureau of Reclamation may be assumed to bring another 135,000 to
140,000 acres underirrigation, with a much smaller addition by individuals. ?J
I./ Over 64% of Idaho's land in federally owned and governmental policies have
long played an important part in the circumstances of the state. Just as the
Bureau of Reclamation, defense installations and the Arco Project affect cur-
rent economy, so federal policies relating to the use of water, national forest
land, and electric power with influence the rate of future development.
2J Material derived from interviews with county agents and Bureau of Reclama-
tion personnel, the Bureau of Reclamation-Corps of Engineers report Upper Snake
Basin, Summary Report, Vol. I (1961), and unpublished paper of Kenneth Johnson,
Bureau of Reclamation economist at Boise.
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Crop patterns in the area are anticipated to develop along
already defined lines, reflecting a greater relative consumption of meat, dairy
products, vegetables and processed foods, and the lower usage of grains and
bulk commodities consistent with rising national living standards. The high
comparative rate of western population growth will give direction to crop compo-
sition. This markets for poultry and dairy products - which are largely shipped
to California - should expand rapidly. Similarly, it is reasonable to antici-
pate greater concentration on meat animals and animal feeding as regional
markets become more capable of absorbing the cattle (and, indirectly, the
forage) now shipped to the midwest. Production of sugar beets, quota-controlled
and sold in national markets, is anticipated to increase at a rate consistent
with national population growth. Potato production is expected to increase
at about the same rate as population to 1985. Forage output and irrigation of
pasture are both expected to grow as a function of increased grazing. Gains in
these areas will be partially accomplished by diverting land from production of
grain.
Farm consolidation is expected to continue. Its effect on
number of farms, however, should be much less between 1960 and 1985 than in the
nineteen=fifties. Increased irrigation, attainment of optimum size by a grow-
ing number of farm units as consolidation proceeds, and increased availability
of non-farm employment to supplement agricultural income, should all act with
the high price of farm land to brake the pace of decline in number of farms.
Kenneth Johnson, Bureau of Reclamation economist, has pre-
dicted that between 1960 and 1980 the number of farms in all of southern Idaho
will decline about 9.5 percent. Applying this percentage to the study area, a
reduction in number of farm units from 15,496 in 1959 to about 14,000 in 1980
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may be presumed. (The actual experience of the area between 1949 and 1959,
the era of rapid farm consolidation, saw the number of farms decrease at 80 per-
cent of the rate for all of southern Idaho, due to large additions of irrigated
acreage in Cassia and Minidoka Counties.)
Unlike the 1950 to 1960 period, farm employment may be ex-
pected to fall less sharply than numbers of farms. The increased size and
complexity of farms has already begun to create a body of full time farm
laborers - notably farmers experienced in irrigation cropping on shares on
newly irrgiated portions of predominantly dry farms, and specialists who per-
form specific functions for a number of similar farms. Although the improve-
ment in productivity 'of agricultural labor has been based to a considerable
extent on the organization of land to permit use of constantly larger farm
machinery, it is not unreasonable to assume that rising population and in-
creasing scarcity of high quality agricultural land will necessitate increas-
ingly greater attention to the mechanics of soil conservation and to raising
productivity per acre. More intensive agricultural practices would be expected
to -require labor utilization greater than that indicated by recent trends.
It is assumed for design purposes that farm employment will decline seven per-
cent - 75 percent of the rate predicted for number of farms - between 1960 and
1985. Applying this rate of decline to each sub-area, farm employment in 1985
would amount to 10,300 in Area I, 6,000 in Area II, 3,500 in Area III, a total
of 19,800 in the Upper Snake Basin.
Gauging the employment level for agriculture in 2010 is
based on: (1) a continuing evolution of the organizational framework and
technology of agriculture which is likely to result in a type of farm skin to
the manufacturing firm, (2) greater labor specialization, (3) shorter working
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hours. For the purposes of this paper it is assumed that as a result of rising
productivity employment in agriculture will be the same in 2010 as in 1985,
with the required greater output of crops attainable from an equal input of
labor, and a slightly greater input of land than anticipated for 1985.
3. Food Processing
Food processing in the study area may be expected to continue
to grow vigorously in the future, though the rate of growth will drop below the
high rate of the last few years. Potato processing, the major contributor to
recent rapid growth, has passed the stage of infant industry expansion. Potato
products appear to be largely established, with no substantial untapped markets
remaining, and future increases in output are expected to relate more closely
to national population trends.
Because potato processing requires a potato of excellent quality,
and because the soil and climate of eastern Idaho are peculiarly suited to
growing potatoes, the region should continue to provide a large part of the
total national output of processed potatoes. Given sufficient water, a large
part of the land in the basin is suited to growing potatotes, and no restrictions
on supply of the product appear likely during the study period. Increased uti-
lization of culls and development of additional by-products is expected to
continue, and employment is forecast to increase at a two percent average rate -
slightly higher than the projected rate of national population increase. An
estimated 3,000 persons were employed by the industry in the Upper Snake Basin
in 1962; and application of the forecast growth rate indicates employment of
4,300 in 1985, 7,100 in 2010. On the basis of present plant locations about
50 percent of potato processing employment would be concentrated in Area I,
15 percent in Area III, and 35 percent in Area II. It would appear logical,
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however, for expansion to take place relatively faster in the eastern portions
of the study area, where the greatest potato production and potentials actually
exist. Giving some weight to this in distributing potato processing employ-
ment for design purposes, Are I employment is assumed to rise to 2,000 persons
in 1985, 3,100 in 2010; Area II employment would amount to 1,800 in 1985,
3,200 in 2010; Area III employment is forecast to be 500 in 1985, 800 in 2010.
As potato processing grows, further evening of the cyclical
production pattern may be anticipated. Larger, possibly fewer, units will be
in the position of weighing storage costs for raw materials against the costs
of uneven production flows and storage of the finished product. With the higher
future output envisaged for processed potatoes, handling of the physical product
and adjusting output to markets would appear to require a constant approach to
relatively steady, year-round production schedules.
Meat packing is expected to expand considerably in the future,
as the Idaho industry develops from a localized one and increases shipments of
meat products to the Pacific Coast areas, particularly California, where the
"state now sends large numbers of cattle on the hoof. A surplus of forage, and
growing population on the Pacific Coast, offer conditions favorable to develop-
ment of the industry; and the national tendency has been for an increasing
portion of the total output of meat products to be processed in the areas
where cattle are grazed. Two large packing plants in Pocatello (Swift & Co.
and Zweigart Packing) will be joined in 1963 by a plant of Stockmen's Meat
Corporation in Jerome capable of slaughtering up to 400 head a day and of
employment of up to 200 persons. With conditions not unlike those applying
to potato .processing in its early stages, the immediate expansion of meat
packing is anticipated to be swift. EmDlovmpnt • c ^ ^ *•
employment 1S forecast to grow at a five
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percent annual rate to about 1970, slowing to the two percent rate of western
population growth thereafter. Growth is expected to be shared equally be-
tween Area I and Area II, the former having some advantage of location with
reference to grazing areas; the latter, because of Pocatello, possessing trans-
portation advantages. Employment is projected to increase from a total of
about 400 in the entire basin to 400 persons engaged in meat packing in both
Area I and Area II in 1985, and about 700 in each of the two areas in 2010.
About 3,000 persons were employed in other types of food pro-
cessing in the region in 1960, and although growth may be expected to be
concentrated in potato processing and meat packing, some growth of other pro-
cessing activities will also take place. It is to be anticipated, however,
that growth will be somewhat less than that of population. Nationally, employ-
ment in food processing between 1950 and 1960 rose at 144 percent of the rate
of. population. This, reflecting the trends to greater use of packaged foods
in national markets, which contributes to specialization of production, un-
questionably acts to slow the growth of processors mainly serving local areas.
Thus, the number of local confectioners, bakers, bottlers, etc. in the Upper
Snake Basin is not expected to expand at the same rate as population.
The production of dairy products, sugar, and grain products,
which the area produces for larger markets, has been characterized by in-
creased output without equivalent increases in employment. For instance, in
spite of a rise in output of sugar on the order of three percent a year be-
tween 1950 and 1960, southern Idaho employment in sugar manufacturing has re-
mained surprisingly constant at something over 900 persons. Similarly, em-
ployment in dairy products industries is believed to have declined over the
same period, in spite of a considerable increase in values added by manufacture,
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due to concentration of production in larger plants. Assuming that growth of
employment occurs at 65 percent of the rate of population growth assumed for
the nation, employment in food processing other than potato products and meat
packing would amount in 1985 to 1,900 in Area I, 1;700 in Area II, 450 in Area
III. Employment in 2010 would be 2,600 in Area I, 2,300 in Area II, 600 in
Area III.
Because of the nature of the underlying assumption with regard
to productivity, the forecast for output of processed foods is in the same
general terms as the forecast for food processing employment. Output of pro-
cessed potatoes, growing at a two percent average annual rate, should amount
from roughly 1.3 million pounds in 1960 to about 2.1 million pounds in 1985
and 3.2. million pounds in 2010. Production of beet sugar should grow at the
same rate as national population, from an estimated 310 thousand pounds in 1960
to about 490 thousand pounds in 1985, 730 thousand pounds in 2010. Cattle
slaughter capacity should rise to roughly 1600 head per day in 1985, 2,800
head per day in 2010. Aggregating all other food processing, output should rise
at less than 1.5 percent per year - about two-thirds the rate of national popu-
lation growth. Though some products, particularly dairy products, may experience
expansion, it would appear likely that the agricultural output of the region
will be channeled increasingly into sugar, potatoes, and cattle, and that
growth of , products will be diminished as a result of this specialization.
4. Phosphate
The level of development of the phosphate industry is a
crucial consideration in assessing growth of the Upper Snake Basin. Demand
for phosphate has increased at a better than ten percent average annual rate
since World War II; and though maintenance of such a rate is unlikely,, due to
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the growing base, and maturity of demand for many products, a considerable rise
may still be anticipated. A number of estimates of growth have been made; The
U. S. Department of Commerce has projected a 4.5 percent rate of increase in
output from 1960 to 1980.1/ The Corps of Engineers in a 1958 report (probably
compiled in 1956) forecast a 3.4 percent rate between 1955 and 1980.^/ An inde-
pendant consulting firm, Ivan Bloch & Associates, has projected a 4.3 percent
national rate from 1960 through 1985, with a rate above 5.5 percent for the
Idaho industry under circumstances presuming a dependable supply of low cost
electric power.3/
Such estimates, based on the level of use of end-products uti-
lizing phosphorus - detergents, fertilizers, Pharmaceuticals, explosives, fungi-
cides, pesticides - largely ignore the possibility of new products. Should the
price and availability of the resource permit its use as a building block in
synthesizing new products, even faster growth would appear reasonable. In view
of the intensity of product research characteristic of the chemical industry,
it would appear defensible, then, to forecast national growth to 1985 on the
basis of the more recent forecasts, the 4.5 percent rate projected by the
Commerce Department and Ivan Bloch & Associates.
To what extent the Idaho phosphate industry is able to share
in this growth depends on its success in overcoming some competitive dis-
advantages inherent in its location. Established near the natural resource,
the industry must overcome the weight of freight costs in dealing with the
I/ Current Industrial Reports, Inorganic Chemicals, Series M28A.
tj Mater Resources Development. Columbia River Basin, Vol. Ill
3/ Direct Testimony in Support of Amended Application for License (before
the Federal Power Commission)Washington Public Power Supply System;
Kennewick, Washington; September, 1960.
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largest markets for its product - the east coast and industrial middle west for
industrial chemicals, the midwest for fertilizers. For this reason, discovery
of substantial commercially utilizable phosphate deposits closer to major
markets could impede the growth of the Idaho industry.
Several factors suggest easing of this disadvantage. Growth
of population in the far west should carry with it the establishment of phos-
phorus using industries, potential customers with who Idaho producers would
have a natural advantage. Also tied to western population growth is the possi-
bility of gradual changes in freight rates which, while not great enough to
eliminate Idaho's disadvantage in eastern markets, could nevertheless materially
extend the effective marketing area. A process under development may result
in making metallurgical coke, required in the electric furnace production of
phosphorus, available from low grade western coal. Shipment of coke from sub-
bituminous deposits near Kemmerer, Wyoming, the siteof the FMC co., experi-
ental coking plant, costs less than $5.00 a ton in freight charges, compared
to an average of $12.50 a ton from established sources; and southern Idaho
plants use 200,000 tons a year at 1960 production levels.
More significant than any of these in assessing growth of
the Idaho phosphate industry is the possible availability of supplies of low
cost electric energy. The electric furnace process for producing elemental
phosphorus requires large amounts of electric power to combination with phos-
phate rock and coke. In the production of 50 tons a day of phosphorus
600,000 to 700,000 kwh are utilized. In these quantities electricity can be
thought of as a basic raw material; and at the present level of cost to
Upper Snake phosphate producers (believed to average about 5.5 mills per kwh),
electricity represents about a quarter of total production costs. In terms
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of freight rate equivalents, each one mill reduction in the cost of electricity
for each one mill increase in cost to competitors) increases the effective
marketing area eastward by something over 200 miles. In the future low cost
supplies of electirc power - from Snake River and Columbia River dams and
from nuclear sources - may become available to this area. Should this increased
supply bring the cost of power below the equivalent costs of added conventional
thermal power in other regions, the phosphate industry would be a primary bene-
ficiary.
While the growth trends for phosphate products is forecast to
flatten out between 1985 and 2010, relating more closely to population levels
rather than expansionary forces of both population and new product development,
the western phosphate industry is expected to be able to continue its growth
at a rate somewhat in excess of that for over-all phosphate output. Population
growth in the far west is anticipated to continue to exceed that of the nation
as a whole, with a consequent gain in western manufacturing industries.
Oriental, and some Latin American, export markets for phosphate products, par-
ticularly fertilizers, may be more advantageously served by western producers.
Since these markets should grow faster than any others, due to their largely
underdeveloped character and deficiencies in food output, they represent a
reservoir of important latent demand.I/ Still another source of future demand
is the possibility of use of commercial fertilizers to stimulate western forest
growth. Although present circumstances do not permit economic use of intensive
]/ In 1958 total domestic output of fertilizers in Latin America amounted to
1.9 kg per person, 3.7 kg per hectare of arable land. In the far east - ex-
cluding Communist Asia and Japan - production amounted to .3 kg per person, 2.2
per hectare. In contrast, U.S. production amounted to 38.8 kg per capita, 32.4
kg per hectare. (U.S. Dept. of Agriculture: World Food Budget, 1962 and 1966.
Washington, D.C., October, 1961.
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tree fertilization, the forest products industries have demonstrated a recent
tendency to look ahead to larger markets within a context of limited tree-
bearing land, and have devoted some attention to increasing the growth /rate
of forests.I/ For these reasons, growth of the Idaho phosphate industry is
forecast to be on the order of one and a half times national population growth,
or 2.7 percent per year, in the period 1985 to 2010.
In terms of employment, the forecast growth rate may be applied
to three counties. At the present time manufacturing is restricted to Caribou
and Bannock Counties, mining to Caribou and Bingham Counties. It is assumed
for design purposes that both manufacturing and mining production will continue
to be divided in the same manner as in 1960, and that employment will increase
at the same rate as output. Employment in Caribou County would then be 120
persons in mining, 700 in manufacturing on 1985, 250 in mining and 1,350 in
manufacturing in 2010. Employment in Bannock County would be 1,750 in 1985,
3,300 in 2010, all in manufacturing. Employment in Bingham County would be
250 in 1985, 500 in 2010, all in mining.
5. Other Manufacturing
Growth of manufacturing output and employment from sources
other than the dominant food-processing and phosphate industries should be
substantial in the future. A number of sources of manufacturing growth exist.
One of the possibilities for expansion is the Pocatello plant
of Thiokol Chemical Co. Originally leased from a Pocatello industrial develop-
ment group, the former naval ordinance plant was purchased by Thiokol in 1962,
V A minor start in the use of phosphate in forest fertilization is repre-
sented by Phos-kern, a product of Monsanto Chemical Co. Used for air spraying
of forest fires, the material is said to have a residual benefit in fertilizing
the sprayed area.
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facilities were installed, and some modernization efforts took place. Employ-
ment grew from 40 persons in 1961 to about 100 in the fourth quarter of 1962.
Company spokesmen have indicated eventual employment of 3,000. Thiokol is one
of the leading producers in the field of rocket propulsion, and a substantial
member of the complex of large companies that specialize in advanced military
products. Its growth has been rapid, and the probabilities of its eventually
securing the contracts to bring the Pocatello plant into production of propel-
lants - engines, fuels, or both - would seem high under the conditions of a
protracted cold war. The effect of such a circumstance on the Pocatello area
could be immense, considering the prospects for establishment of manufacturing
industries ancillary to Thiokol - producers of tubing, valves, instrumentation
devices, etc. - as well as the service employment which the added manufacturing
jobs would support.
Expansion of the Arco Nuclear Reactor Project provides another
source of growth of science-based industry in the Upper Snake Baisn. The pro-
ject has expanded since 1960, with 1962 employment exceeding that of the
region's phosphate industry. Like the Thiokol plant, however, its level of
employment - indeed, its existence - depends on federal government expenditures.
Although it is generally believed that the project is continuing and perma-
ent one, the rapid development of techniques for utilizing nuclear energy may
to some degree obviate the need for large scale experimental projects in remote
areas. It does not appear likely, however, that the capital investment repre-
sented by the project would be allowed to become fallow, and conversion to
power-production or some other use might be expected to maintain the project
in the future.
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Less striking, but perhaps more certain, sources of manu-
facturing growth lie in development of the resource base. Phosphate deposits
contain two possibilities for growth, one immediate, one more remote. A bay-
product of electric furnace production of elemental phosphorus is rich in
vanadium. Construction began in 1962 of a plant (Kermac Nuclear Fuels Corp.,
a subsidiary of Kerr-McGee Industries) at Soda Springs to process the ferophos-
phorus residues of the Monsanto plant. Further development of vanaduim pro-
duction should accompany growth of phosphorus output, since demand for the
metal, used to make light-weight, corrosion-resistant alloys, is strong. An-
other possible source of growth is a diversified chemical industry based on
phosphorus. Under present conditions it is more economic to ship the base
product to major marketing areas for upgrading into finished materials. De-
velopment of phosphorus-based bulk materials could result in further upgrading
near the source of supply.
Another source of manufacturing growth is the timber stands
of the Targhee National Forest. Largely undeveloped at the present time due
to distance from market, small trees (largely lodgepole pine), dormant demand
for lumber and inadequate prospects for by-product utilization, the resource
neverthless holds some prospect for specialized development. Stud mills,
producing kiln-dried, standard-length, two-by-four boards for use in midwestern
construction markets, are a recent development in Idaho, and appear well suited
for utilization of local trees.I/ Lodgepole pine is well suited for pulping
J/ One stud mill already exists in the Basin, at St. Anthony (Area III). Built
in. 1962, the plant employs about 30 persons. The entire output is sold in the
midwest, and chips are shipped to a Wisconsin paper mill. Another Area III
example of adapting production to the limitations of mountain forest growth is
a producer of log cabins. Logs are cut and notched to shape and shipped for
assembly on the buyer's site. Selling for $1,500 and transportation charges
the cabins would appear to have considerable market potential for summer homes
and other recreational uses.
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but the limited growth of local stands and the water pollution problems that
might result from adding pulp wastes to the food-processing wastes of the Upper
Snake Basin would appear to push the possible appearance of a pulp mill to a
date well after 1985. The development of more efficient techniques of small-
scale pulp production would appear to be required before such a plant could be
profitable operated. Appearance of composition board production, utilizing both
round wood and residues from other plants in the Idaho-western Montana region,
would appear possible before 1985, due to the likelihood of substantial popula-
tion growth - and consequent market for construction materials - in the Pocatello-
Idaho Falls area.
In addition to these sources of growth, development of diversified
manufacturing activity, based on advancing population and industrialization
rather than specific plants or resources, may be foreseen. As regional markets
grow, it is characteristic of an industrial society for local plants to supply
an increasing number of goods which were previously imported. Since such plants
tend to relieve a region's import requirements without, in most cases, develop-
ing external markets, their employment-generating characteristics are minor, but
their growth can be very fast in an atmosphere of industrialization and urban
concentration, (e.g. Caribou County and Bannock County developed considerable
miscellaneous manufacturing employment between 1950 and 1960 in response to
growth of phosphate production.)
In projecting manufacturing employment, other than phosphorous
production and food processing, separate projections are provided for chemical
manufacturing and all other types of manufacturing.
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The forecast for the chemical industry assumes that employment
by Thiokol will reach 3,000 persons by 1985, and that employment in all other
types of chemical manufacturing will grow at a 4.5 percent annual rate between
1960 and 1985. The Arco Project, whose employment increased at about a twenty
percent rate between 1960 and 1962, is presumed to be the source of much of this
growth, with moderate assistance from phosphorus-based materials. Flattening
of the growth curve is to be expected, particularly for the Arco Project, by
1985, when total employment in this category is forecast to amount to 7,700
persons, largely located in Area II. Based on past and existing trends, which
suggest more intensive utilization of materials and continuing growth of chemical
processes and rocketry, a high rate of growth would still appear likely after
1985, with phosphorous-based materials supplying a considerable part of expansion.
Employment increase is forecast at a 1.8 percent rate - the rate of national
population increase - indicating total employment of about 12,000 persons by
2010 located largely within Area II.
With the possible exception of lumbering, which is dependant
on a natural resource and in some measure responsive to national market condi-
tions, other types of manufacturing growth will be related to the level of
development of primary manufacturing activities - food processing and chemicals -
and the level of population supported by them and by agriculture. Growth of
employment, then, is derived from the rate of growth in primary manufacturing.
A 2.2 percent annual rate is assumed from 1960 to 2010. The rate represents
half the forecast growth rate of the two primary manufacturing industries from
1960 to 1985, and is the relationship that existed in the Upper Snake Basin be-
tween 1950 and 1960. Maintenance of a two percent rate even after growth of
the primary sources has slowed reflects some measure of inter-relatedness among
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the secondary activities themselves, and the development of greater independence
from the more basic industries to be expected as the entire region attains a
higher degree of economic deversity. Distribution of employment among the
divisions of the region according to the level of 1960 employment in manu-
facturing and anticipated growth of primary manufacturing activities, v/ould sug-
gest that 75 percent of the growth of other manufacturing will occur in Area II,
17 percent in Area I, and eight percent in Area III, these being roughly the
portions of total forecast growth of employment in food-processing and chemical
manufacturing allotted to the respective areas. The level of 1985 employment
in these secondary manufacturing activities would, therefore, be 1,700 in Area I,
3,100 in Area II, 500 in Area III. Growth of employment at a two percent annual
rate would bring 2010 employment to 2,800 in Area I, 5,100 in Area II, and 800
in Area III.
6. Transportation
Between 1950 and 1960 transportation employment in the Upper
Snake Basin, like that of the United States as a whole, fell significantly. A
sharp decline in employment by railroads in Bannock County was partially offset
by generally higher employment in trucking and warehousing through the basin,
and by moderate increases in railroad employment in parts of Area I and Area III.
A high relative level of employment in transportation was, however, maintained
by the substantial increase in manufacturing (manufacturing employment increased
140 percent in the basin between 1950 and 1960, compared to a 20 percent in-
crease nationally) and agricultural output of the region.
In transportation, as in agriculture, very sharp gains in the
productivity of labor occurred during the nineteen-fifties. This, together with
a persistent diversion of traffic from railroad to highway hauling, brought a
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32 percent decline in national railroad employment between 1950 and 1960. Truck-
ing employment increased by an equal percentage, but because of the smaller
trucking base, employment by railroads and truckers combined declined over ten
percent.I/ Substantial further gains in the productivity of railroad labor
are possible in the near future through application of automation and revision
of work rules.
While this might suggest some drain on future employment prospects
in transportation, it must be kept in mind that a considerable increase in out-
put of both agricultural and manufactured products is forecast. Although an
initial dip in railroad employment may be sustained, there is no reason to expect
labor productivity to increase indefinitely at current rates; and since total
transportation requirements of the region will rise with production and popu-
lation, some expansion of employment seems indicated. For the purposes of this
study it is assumed that non-railroad transportation employment will increase at
about a 1.5 percent annual rate. The rate, slightly under that forecast for
national population, gives weight to anticiapted productivity gains, some di-
version of traffic to railroads, and a continuing growth in the use of captive
carriers. Railroad transportation is forecast to increase at a .9 percent
annual rate to 1985, a 1.8 percent rate, the same as national population, there-
after. It is assumed that the decline in labor requirements of railroads will
continue some years in the future, then stabilize and rise with output. The
.9 percent rate is simply half of the forecast rate of national population in-
crease, and is used to approximate the effect on employment of the predicted
rounding out of the declining curve of railroad employment. Transportation
employment in the Upper Snake Basin on this basis would be 8,500 in 1985,
17It may be presumed that the actual decline in numbers engaged in transpor-
tation was somewhat less, since a part of the lost railroad traffic went to
captive carriers. The tendency of many firms to transport their goods in owned
trucks led to the classification of many .truckers under manufacturing and trade
in census enumerations.
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rising to 12,800 in 2010. Distribution of employment among sub-areas is made
according to the forecast of employment in manufacturing and in agriculture,
with some added weight given to Area II to reflect Pocatello's depot status.
Transportation employment in 1985 is forecast to be 2,600 in Area I, 5,000 in
Area II and 900 in Area III. The forecast for 2010 is 3,300 in Area I, 8,400
in Area II and 1,100 in Area III.
7. Construction and Services
Construction is essential to economic growth, and the substantial
predicted gain in manufacturing output in the Upper Snake Basin suggests con-
tinuing high rates of employment in construction. Construction employment is
forecast to remain about six percent of the labor force in Area I and Area III,
and to amount to seven1 percent of the labor force in Area II, because of the con-
siderable faster rate of growth predicted for that sub-region. (The rate may be
compared to the 8.3 percent of 1950 and 6.3 percent of 1960.) Construction
employment would, then, amount to 3,200 in Area I, 7,100 in Area II and 900 in
Area III by 1985, and 4,700 for Area I, 10,800 for Area II and 1,300 for Area
III by 2010.
Employment in service industries depends, ultimately, on the level
of employment in production industries and population. As Table V (page 16)
suggests, service industry employment in the Upper Snake Basin was unusually
high for an agricultural area in 1960, a result of an unusual concentration of
transportation employment. Services other than transportation were represented
at levels somewhat under that of the United States as a whole.
Growth of service activities in the study area has, in keeping
with national trends, exceeded the rate of population growth. Education, public
administration, and professional services have grown particularly rapidly. There
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is reason to anticipate that this trend will continue. Nationally, service
occupations increased their portion of total employment from 61.3 percent in
1960 to 62.5 percent in 1961 and 63 percent in early 1962. With growing urban-
ization, the Upper Snake Basin should develop patterns of service employment
in line with national experience.
No attempt is made in this paper to distribute service employment
by function. Since the employment-generating effects of any particular service
industry may be presumed to be low, it is the level of over-all service employ-
ment that is considered. There are certain difficulties, however, in assigning
a suitable level. It would be patently unrealistic to assume that the ratio of
service to production employment will in 1985 and 2010 approximate the level of
I960 - both long term and current comparative growth rates indicates that
services will expand faster than production industries. Between 1940 and 1950
non-transportation service industries in the U. S. added an average increment
of .27 percent each year to their portion of total employment; while between
1950 and 1960 the addition was even sharper, an average increment of .62 per-
cent annually. Obviously this cannot continue indefinitely. Production in-
dustries will net disappear entirely, and it appears likely that at some point
in the future an equalibrium between production and service employment must be
struck.
In order to construct a model of the 1985 and 2010 economies of
the Upper Snake Basin, it is assumed that the annual increment to the ratio of
non-transportation service employment in the region will be .3 percent, a
figure very close to that of the U. S. as a whole between 1940 land 1950. While
the rate of change is under the recent experience of the region, it reflects
the supposition that production industries will be able to absorb a proportionately
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larger part of the labor force than during the recent past, due to slowing
of the decline in agricultural employment and rising manufacturing activity.
It is assumed, further, that 65 percent of the labor force represents the
effective ceiling of non-transportation service employment in this resource-
oriented area.
Utilizing these assumptions, the forecast of non-transportation
service employment in 1985 is 31,100 persons in Area I, 66,100 in Area II,
8,700 in Area III. By 2010 the figures would rise in Area I to 51,100 in
Area II to 100,100, and in Area III to 14,500.
8. Total Labor Force
One of the underlying assumptions of this paper is that employ-
ment in the future will be maintained at 96 percent of the civilian labor force
A regional labor force of 177,100 in 1985 and 265,700 in 2010 is derived by
combining employment forecasts for various industries and areas. The hypo-
thetical distribution of the labor force by industry and by area is summarized
in Tables XXI and XXII.
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TABLE XXI
DISTRIBUTION OF THE LABOR FORCE, 1985
Industry
Agriculture
Construction
Manufacturing
Potato processing
meat packing
other food
phosphorus
other chemical
other mfg
Transportation
Other services
Unemployment
Labor Force
Area I
10,300
3,200
2,000
400
1 ,900
1,700
2,600
31,100
2,200
55,400
Area II
6,000
7,100
1,800
400
1,700
2,800 £
7,700
3,100
5,000
66,100
3,900
105,600
a/ Included among "other food".
b/ Includes only elemental phosphorus and
Industry
Agriculture
Construction
Manufacturing
potato processing
meat packing
other food
phosphorus
other chemical
other mfg.
Transportation
Other Services
Unemployment
Labor Force
DISTRIBUTION
Area I
10,300
4,700
3,100
700
2,600
2,800
3,300
51,100
3,200
81,800
TABLE XXII
Area III
3,500
900
500
a/
450
500
900
8,750
600
16,200
phosphate ferti
Basin
19,800
11,200
4,300
800
4,050
2,800
7,700
5,300
8,500
105,950
6,700
177,100
lizers.
OF THE LABOR FORCE, 2010
Area II
6,000
10,800
3,200
700
2,300
5,400 £/
12,000
5,100
8,400
100,100
6,400
160,400
Area III
3,500
1 ,300
800
a/
600
800
1,100
14,500
900
23,500
Basin
19,800
16,800
7,100
1 ,400
5,900
5,400
12,000
8,700
12,800
165,700
10,500
265,700
a/ Included among "other food".
b/ Includes only elemental phosphorus and phosphate fertilizers.
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B. Estimated Future Population
1. General
The estimate of future population is based on the employment models
presented in Tables XXI and XXII. Assuming that the national labor force as a
percent of population remains unchanged from 1960 levels, and that the standard-
izing forces of industrialization, immigration, and mass communication make
labor force representation in the Upper Snake Basin the same as the national
average (labor force as a percent of population was actually moderately below
the national average in 1960), the indicated future labor force of the region,
set at 38 percent of total population, would support a population of 466,200
in 1985 and 699,100 in 2010.
The population forecast for the area suggests considerable acceler-
ation over past rates of population growth. During the period 1960 to 1985 an
average annual population increase of 2.2 percent, and from 1985 to 2010 an
average annual increase of 1.6 percent are projected, compared to a 1.4 percent
increase in the periods 1930 to 1960 and 1950 to 1960.
2. Population Pistribution
Distribution of the projected future population is made on the
same basis as the projection of population for the Upper Snake Basin. The
labor force of each area is assumed to make up 38 percent of that area's total
population. Thus, the population of Area I is projected to 145,800 in 1985 and
215,200 in 2010. The population of Area II is projected to 277,800 in 1985,
422,100 in 2010. The population of Area III is projected to 42,600 in 1985,
61,800 in 2010.
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Distribution of the population forecast for sub-areas was accomp-
lished in separate ways, depending on the economic characteristics of each
area. A population break-down for the parts of Area I is presented in Table
XXIII. The table relies mainly on the projection of historic relationships
among the parts of the area. Rural population, including towns with populations
under 1,000, was assumed to remain unchanged; although during the last twenty-
five years rural populations have declined. The City of Twin Falls was assumed
to receive 60 percent of the area's anticipated population growth, compared to
68.5 percent between 1940 and 1960; as the largest settled place in the area
it is the most logical site for industrial and service industries to establish.
The towns of the area with a population of 1,000 to 2,500 has divided among
them 2.5 percent of the anticipated population growth of the area. Predicted
slowing of the decline in agricultural employment suggests some moderate growth
for these towns. Remaining population growth was apportioned on the basis of
1960 population among towns with populations over 2,500. While this assigns
somewhat more than their recent growth experience to such towns, it appears
to be a not unreasonable forecast, since food-processing, an essentially de-
centralized industry in which twin falls has no advantage except size of labor
force, is the main force behind predicted growth.
Distribution of the population of Area II, shown in Table XXIV,
was accomplished through an assignment of a portion of expected future employ-
ment likely, on the basis of present economic circumstances, to be found in
each county. Unlike Area I, a moderate portion of the anticipated population
growth was assigned to rural areas. The substantial industrial growth ex-
pected in Area II is expected to result in spill-over of population in small
towns surrounding larger manufacturing and service centers - as has already
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TABLE XXIII
AREA I: ESTIMATED POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, 1960-2010
Population in Thousands
Area. 1960 T985 2010
Camas County total .9 .9 .9
Gooding County total 9.5 11.7 15.4
rural 5.6 5.6 5.6
. Wendell 1.2 1.4 1.8
Gooding 2.7 4.7 8.0
Twin Falls County 41.8 70.3 116.2
rural , 16.1 16.1 16.1
Buhl 3.1 5.3 8.9
Filer 1.2 1.4 1.7
Kimberley 1.3 1.6 2.0
Twin Falls 20.1 45.9 82.5
Blaine County 4.6 4.8 5.1
rural 3.4 3.4 3.4
Hailey 1.2 1.4 1.7
Lincoln County 3.7 3.9 4.2
rural 2.6 2.6 2.6
Shoshone 1.1 1.3 1.6
Jerome County 11.7 15.2 20.7
rural 6.9 6.9 6.9
Jerome 4.8 8.3 13.8
Minidoka County 14.4 17.4 22.2
rural 10.2 10.2 10.2
Rupert 4.2 7.2 12.0
Cassia County 16.1 21.5 30.3
rural 8.6 8.6 8.6
Burley 7.5 12.9 21.8
TOTAL 102.8 145.7 215.0
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TABLE XXIV
AREA II: ESTIMATED POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, 1960-2010
Population in Thousands
Area 1960T9852010
Butte County 3.5 3.7 4.1
rural 1.9 1.9 1.9
Arco 1.6 1.8 2.2
Bingham County 28.2 35.9 47.9
rural 16.7 16.7 17.0
Aberdeen 1.5 2.3 4.5
Blackfoot 7.4 12.6 25.6
Shelley 2.6 4.3 10.8
Power County 4.1 4.9 5.5
rural 2.0 2.1 2.1
American Falls 2.1 2.8 3.4
Bannock County 49.3 116.1 182.9
rural 8.5 11.5 15.0
Pocatello 40.8 104.6 167.9
Caribou County 6.0 ' 14.0 26.9
rural 3.6 3.7 4.0
Soda Springs 2.4 10.3 22.9
Bonneville County 46.9 102.8 154.7
rural 11.8 14.2 16.2
Ammon 1.9 2.5 3.0
Idaho Falls 33.2 85.1 135.5
TOTAL 138.1 277.4 422.0
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TABLE XXV
AREA III: ESTIMATED POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, I960 - 2010
Area
Jefferson County
Ri gby
rural
Madison County
rural
Rexburg
Teton County
Clark County
Fremont County
rural
St. Anthony
Population in Thousands
1960
11.7
2.3
9.4
9.4
4.6
4.8
2.6
.9
8.7
5.0
2.7
1985
14.3
3.8
10.4
13.8
5.1
8.6
2.7
1.0
10.8
5.8
4.9
2010
19.3
7.3
12.0
22.2
5.9
16.3
2.7
1.0
16.3
7,3
9.0
TOTAL
33.3
42.6
61.5
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