U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Technical Information Service
PB-247 115
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE
REGULATORY ACTION TO CONTROL ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS
OF SELECTED HALOCARBONS
ARTHUR D, LITTLE, INCORPORATED
PREPARED FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
SEPTEMBER 1975
-------
KEEP UP TO DATE
Between the time you ordered this report—
which is only one of the hundreds of thou-
sands in the NTIS information collection avail-
able to you—and the time you are reading
this message, several new reports relevant to
your interests probably have entered the col-
lection.
Subscribe to the Weekly Government
Abstracts series that will bring you sum-
maries of new reports as soon as they are
received by NTIS from the originators of the
research. The WGA's are an NTIS weekly
newsletter service covering the most recent
research findings in 25 areas of industrial,
technological, and sociological interest—
invaluable information for executives and
professionals who must keep up to date.
The executive and professional informa-
tion service provided by NTIS in the Weekly
Government Abstracts newsletters will give
you thorough and comprehensive coverage
of government-conducted or sponsored re-
search activities. And you'll get this impor-
tant information within two weeks of the time
it's released by originating agencies.
WGA newsletters are computer produced
and electronically photocomposed to slash
the time gap between the release of a report
and its availability. You can learn about
technical innovations immediately—and use
them in the most meaningful and productive
ways possible for your organization. Please
request NTIS-PR-205/PCW for more infor-
mation.
The weekly newsletter series will keep you
current. But learn what you have missed in
the past by ordering a computer NTISearch
of all the research reports in your area of
interest, dating as far back as 1964, if you
wish. Please request NTIS-PR-186/PCN for
more information.
WRITE: Managing Editor
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Keep Up To Date With SRIM
SRIM (Selected Research in Microfiche)
provides you with regular, automatic distri-
bution of the complete texts of NTIS research
reports only in the subject areas you select.
SRIM covers almost all Government re-
search reports by subject area and/or the
originating Federal or local government
agency. You may subscribe by any category
or subcategory of our WGA (Weekly Govern-
ment Abstracts) or Government Reports
Announcements and Index categories, or to
the reports issued by a particular agency
such as the Department of Defense, Federal
Energy Administration, or Environmental
Protection Agency. Other options that will
give you greater selectivity are available on
request.
The cost of SRIM service is only 45$
domestic (60£ foreign) for each complete
microfiched report. Your SRIM service begins
as soon as your order is received and proc-
essed and you will receive biweekly ship-
ments thereafter. If you wish, your service
will be backdated to furnish you microfiche
of reports issued, earlier.
Because of contractual arrangements with
several Special Technology Groups, not all
NTIS reports are distributed in the SRIM
program. You will receive a notice in your
microfiche shipments identifying the excep-
tionally priced reports not available through
SRIM.
A deposit account with NTIS is required
before this service can be initiated. If you
have specific questions concerning this serv-
ice, please call (703) 451-1558, or write NTIS,
attention SRIM Product Manager.
This information product distributed by
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, Virginia 22161
-------
EPA-450/3-75-073
September 1975
PRELIMINARY
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
OF POSSIBLE
REGULATORY ACTION
PB 247 115
TO CONTROL
ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS
OF SELECTED HALOCARBONS
NATIONAL TECHNICAL
INFORMATION SERVICE
US Department of Commerce
Springfield, VA. 22151
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
OffiVe of Air and Wasle Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA 450/3-75-073
2.
3. R
4. TITLE ANDSUBTITLE
Preliminary Economic Impact Assessment of Possible
Regulatory Action to Control Atmospheric Emissions
of Selected Halocarboas
5. RETORT DATE
September 1975
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
R.E. Shamel, R. Williams, J.K. O'Neill,
R. Ellerr R. Green. K.D. Hallock. R.P. Tschirch
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
76072-80
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Arthur D. Little, Inc.
Acorn Park
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-02-1349 Task 8
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
The report identifies relative economic impacts, on affected industries, of
possible regulatory action to control atmospheric emissions of selected halo-
carbons. Emphasis is placed on five halocarbons: chlorofluorocarbons 11, 12
and 22, and chlorocarbons, carbon tetrachloride and methyl chloroform. .As
background the report provides information on U.S. and world production, use
and atmospheric emissions of fifteen halocarbons. The report also examines
alternatives for emission abatement and the conversion timetables required
for abatement. Finally, a description of industry structure, including
approximate sales and employment levels for affected sectors, is presented..
7.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATI Field/Group
Aerosol generators
Air conditioning
Air Pollution
Blowing agents
hlorohydrocarbons
Chloromethanes
Dry cleaning
Earth atmosphere
Fluorohydrocarbons
Freons ®
Halohydrocarbons
Ozone
Refrigerants
Solvents
Aerosol propellants
Atmospheric emissions
Economic impact
Stratospheric ozone
PRICES SUBJEJ TO CHARGE
8. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
Unclassified
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
-------
EPA-450/3-75-073
PRELIMINARY
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
.(•-•-..• . • • , . .•••.,'.-
OF POSSIBLE REGULATORY ACTION,
TO CONTROL ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS
OF SELECTED HALOCARBONS
EPA-RTF LIBRARY
by
R. E. Shamel, J. K. O'Neill, and R. Williams
Arthur D. Little, Inc.
Acorn Park
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140
Contract No. 68-02-1349, Task 8
EPA Project Officer: Kenneth H. Lloyd
Prepared for
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
September 1975.
/0/
-------
This report is issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to report
technical data of interest to a limited number of readers. Copies are
available free of charge to Federal employees, current contractors and
grantees, and nonprofit organizations - as supplies permit - from the
Air Pollution Technical Information Center, Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711; or, for a
fee, from the National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal
Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140, in fulfillment
of Contract No.68-02-1349. The contents of this report are reproduced
herein as received from Arthur D. Little, Inc. The opinions, findings,
and conclusions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily
those of the Environmental Protection Agency. Mention of company
or product names is not to be considered as an endorsement by the
Environmental Protection Agency.
Publication No. EPA-450/3-75-073
11
-------
PREFACE
This report is a preliminary economic impact assessment. It is not a
detailed quantitative analysis of the economic consequences of Jialocarbon
regulation. The purpose of the report was to identify those industries
which would. Tbe adversely affected by such regulation—should it become
necessary—and to prioritize them for purposes of further analysis. The
• ' • o
report provides background information for such further analysis.
Although the limited number of interviews was insufficient to establish
statistically valid responses, the information presented is believed to be
reasonably accurate and complete.
The scope of this stu4y did not include an assessment of the ozone
depletion hypothesis and no judgment on this question should be inferred
anywhere in the report. , ..t •
Statements in the report that alternatives are available to current
uses of halocarbons dornot imply,that such substitutes should occur without
strong justification. Furthermore, conducting a preliminary economic impact
assessment does not imply that substantial benefits would or would not
result from restrictions on the chemicals being considered. Further
analysis of both the costs and benefits of such restriction should be
undertaken.
Such analyses are currently underway under other contracts administered for
example by the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Science
Foundation.
iii
-------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Preface Hi-
List of Tables vii
List of Figures xiii
I. SUMMARY
A. Introduction 1-1
B. Purpose and Scope 1-2
1. Purpose 1-2
2. Scope 1-3
C. Approach 1-4
D. Major Findings 1-5
E. Chapter Summaries
1. Chapter II-Halocarbon Production and Use 1-11
2. Chapter III-Halocarbon Emissions to the Atmosphere 1-12
3. Chapter IV-Analysis of Major U.S. Emission Source?
and Alternatives for Emission Abatement 1-12
4. Chapter V-Conversion Timetables 1-17
5. Chapter VI-Definition of Primary Affected Industry
Sectors 1-17
6. Chapter VII-Initial Economic Impact Assessment I-r23
II. HALOCARBON PRODUCTION AND USE
A. Introduction II-l
B. Fluorocarbon Production and Use IL-2
1. United States II-2
x 2. World II-8
*"«=.t^
C. Chlorocarbon Production and Use 11-12
1. United States II-}2
2. World 11-26
III. HALOCARBON EMISSIONS TO THE ATMOSPHERE
A. Introduction III-l
B. Discussion of Emission Estimates and Environmental IJI-2
Fate
iv
-------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Atmospheric Emissions from Chemical Manufacturing
Processes, Transportation and Storage III-2
2. Environmental Fate of Fluorocarbons and
Chlorocarbons III-6
C. Fluorocarbon Emissons to the Atmosphere III-ll
1:, , United-.States;- , III-ll
2. World 111-12
:,o. Chlorocarbon Emissions to the Atmosphere 111-16
1. United States 111-16
2. World 111-28
IV. :.ANALYSIS OF MAJOR U.S. EMISSION SOURCES AND ALTERNATIVES
- .FOR EMISSION ABATEMENT
t ";
A. Introduction TV~i
B. Production, Transport, and Storage Emissions IV-1
C. End Use and Disposal Emissions IV-2
1. Aerosol Propellants IV-2
2. Refrigerants IV-21
, 3. Solvents and Drycleaning IV-47
4. Foam Blowing Agents IV-67
V. CONVERSION TIMETABLES
A. Introduction V-l
B. Sector Timetables V-4
s1. Raw Materials V-4
2. Basic Chemicals V-6
3. Chemical Intermediate Applications V-7
4. Propellant Applications V-10
'5. Refrigerant Applications V-16
6. Blowing Agent Applications V-22
7. Solvent Applications V-24
C. Phasing of Conversion Times V-27
-------
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
VI. DEFINITION OF PRIMARY AFFECTED INDUSTRY SECTORS
A. Introduction VI-1
B. Industry Structure VI-2
I. Sector Relationships VI-2
2. Chlorocarbon and Fluprocarbon Product and Material Flows VI-10
3. Related Business Activities VI-17
C. Primary Industry Sector Definition VI-21
1. Raw Materials VI-22
2. Basic Chemicals VI-31
3. Chemical Intermediates VI-58
4. Propellants VI-61
5. Air Conditioning and Refrigeration VI-74
6. Foam Blowing Agents VI-79
7. Solvents VI-82
VII. INITIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
A. Introduction VII-1
B. Regulatory Options VII-5
1. Introduction VII-5
2. Chemicals Considered VII-5
3. Definition of Regulatory Options. VII-7
C. Review of Production and Emission Statistics VII-12
D. Assessment of Economic Impacts VII-21
1. Introduction VII-21
2. Discussion of Regulatory Options VII-27
E. Potential Emission Reductions VII-49
VIII. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VIII-1
vi
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1-1 ESTIMATED WORLD AND U.S. PRODUCTION AND ATMOSPHERIC 1-6
EMISSIONS OF FIVE PRINCIPAL HALOCARBONS - 1973
1-2 ESTIMATED U.S. ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS FROM POTENTIALLY - 1-7
CONTROLLED CHEMICALS - 1973 . , .
1-3 SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED ECONOMIC IMPACT. ASSESSMENT RESULT- I-9
ING FROM RESTRICTION ON U.S. USE OF F-ll, F-12 AND
CARBON TETRACHLORIDE
;I-4 SUBSTITUTION ALTERNATIVES AND EMISSION REDUCTION 1-13
POSSIBILITIES FOR FIVE PRIMARY CHEMICALS
1-5 CONSUMING INDUSTRY RESPONSE TIMES TO CHEMICAL USE 1-18
RESTRICTIONS
1-6 ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION VALUE RELATED TO 1-19
FLUOROCARBON AND CHLOROCARBON PRODUCTION AND CONSUMP-
TION - 1973
II-l UNITED STATES FLUOROCARBON PRODUCTION DATA H-3
II-2 UNITED STATES FLUOROCARBON PRODUCTION CAPACITY BY H-4
PRODUCER-1973 r
II-3 UNITED STATES FLUOROCARBON CONSUMPTION BY END USE II-6
II-4 WORLD FLUOROCARBON PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION II-9
CAPACITYr-1973
II-5 WORLD FLUOROCARBON CONSUMPTION BY END USE-1973 11-10
II-6 UNITED STATES CHLOROCARBON PRODUCTION DATA 11-13
II-7 UNITED STATES TRADE IN SELECTED CHLOROCARBONS 11-16
H-8 CARBON TETRACHLORIDE END-rUSE PATTERN 11-17
II-9 . CHLOROFORM END-USE PATTERN . 11-18
II-10 ETHYL CHLORIDE:END-USE PATTERN 11-18
II-ll ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE, END-USE PATTERN 11-19
11-12 METHYL CHLORIDE END-USE PATTERN 11-20
vii
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
11-13 METHYL CHLOROFORM END^USE PATTERN 11-21
11-14 METHYLENE CHLORIDE END-USE PATTERN H-22
11-15 PERCHLOROETHYLENE END-USE PATTERN 11-23
11-16 TRICHLOROETHYLENE END-USE PATTERN 11-24
11-17 VINYL CHLORIDE END-USE PATTERN 11-25
11-18 ESTIMATED WORLD CHLOROCARBON PRODUCTION - 1973 11-27
III-l HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM CHEMICAL MANUFACTURE I11"3
III-2 HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM CHEMICAL MANUFACTURING
PROCESSES INVOLVING CHLORINATION III-4
III-3 SOME PROPERTIES OF FLUOROCARBONS AND CHLOROCARBONS III-7
III-4 RELATIVE STABILITY OF THE HALOCARBONS . IH-9
III-5 ESTIMATED U.S. FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS-1973 111-13
III-6 WORLD EMISSIONS OF FLUOROCARBON AEROSOL
PROPELLANTS - 1973 111-15
III-7 WORLD EMISSIONS OF FLUOROCARBON REFRIGERANTS - 1973 111-15
III-8 ESTIMATED U.S. CARBON TETRACHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973 111-17
III-9 ESTIMATED U.S. CHLOROFORM EMISSIONS-1973 111-18
III-10 ESTIMATED U.S. ETHYL CHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973 III-d9
III-ll ESTIMATED U.S. ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973 III-2*0
111-12 ESTIMATED U.S. METHYL CHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973 . IIJ-21
111-13 ESTIMATED U.S. METHYL CHLOROFORM EMISSIONS-1973 111-22
111-14 ESTIMATED U.S. METHYLENE CHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973 111-23
111-15 ESTIMATED U.S. PERCHLOROETHYLENE EMISSIONS-1973 III-24
viii
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
111-16 ESTIMATED J-S. TRICHLOROETHYLENE EMISSIONS-1973 111-25
111-17 ESTIMATED U.S. VINYL CHLORIDE MONOMER EMISSIONS-1973 111-26
III-18 ESTIMATED U.S. CHLOROCARBON EMISSIONS - 1973 111-27
111-19 ESTIMATED WORLD CHLOROCARBON EMISSIONS-1973 111-29
IV-1 PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF AEROSOL PROPELLANTS IV-5
IV-2 ESTIMATED U.S. FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS AS AEROSOL IV-7
PROPELLANT BY PRODUCT TYPE - 1973
IV-3 APPROXIMATE SELLING PRICE OF MAJOR AEROSOL . IV-17
PROPELLANTS - 1975
IV-4 END USE OF FLUOROCARBON REFRIGERANTS BY TYPE IV-22
IV-5 ESTIMATED U.S. FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS AND USE AS IV-23
REFRIGERANT - 1973
IV-6 CHARACTERISTICS OF DRYCLEANING SOLVENTS IV-60
IV-7 SOLVENT LOSSES IN PERCHLOROETHYLENE PLANTS IV-65
IV-8 DESCRIPTION OF USE OF HALOCARBONS IN PLASTIC FOAM IV-68
MANUFACTURE
IV-9 ESTIMATED U.S. USE OF HALOCARBONS IN PLASTIC FOAM IV-79
MANUFACTURE - 1973
IV-10 ESTIMATED U.S. FLUOROCARBON AND CHLOROCARBON IV-81
EMISSIONS FROM FOAM BLOWING
V-l NEW RAW MATERIAL SUPPLY TIMES V-5
V-2 DEVELOPMENT TIMES FOR SUBSTITUTE CHEMICALS V-7
V-3 DEVELOPMENT TIMES FOR PRODUCTION FACILITIES FOR V-9
INTERMEDIATE CHEMICAL APPLICATIONS
V-4 TIME REQUIRED FOR INTRODUCING PRODUCTS TO PERSONAL V-15.
CARE MARKET
ix
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
V-5 AVAILABILITY OF NON-FLUOROCARBON REFRIGERATION AND V-18
AIR CONDITIONING PRODUCTS
V-6 TRANSITION TIMES OF REFRIGERANT APPLICATIONS V-21
V-7 CONVERSION TIMES FOR BLOWING AGENT APPLICATIONS V-23
V-8 CONVERSION TIMES FOR SOLVENT APPLICATIONS V-26
V-9 CONSUMING INDUSTRY RESPONSE TIME TO AN IMMEDIATE V-29
CHEMICAL BAN
V-10 CONSUMING INDUSTRY CONVERSION TIMES TO USING V-38
SUBSTITUTE CHEMICALS
V-ll TIMES REQUIRED FOR EQUIPMENT UPGRADING TO REDUCE V-38
ATMOSPHERIC LOSSES
VI-1 U.S. CHLORINE PRODUCTION AND MAJOR END USES - 1973 VI-4
VI-2 U.S. PRODUCTION AND END USES OF HALOCARBON PRIMARY VI-7
INTERMEDIATES - 1973
VI-3 U.S. ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE END USE - 1973 VI-9
VI-4 U.S. PRODUCTION/RAW MATERIALS FOR C1 CHLORINATED VI-11
HYDROCARBONS - 1973
VI-5 U.S. PRODUCTION/RAW MATERIALS FOR C. CHLORINATED VI-12
HYDROCARBONS-1973
VI-6 U.S. PRODUCTION/RAW MATERIALS FOR CARBON TETRA- VI-15
CHLORIDE, CHLOROFORM, PERCHLOROETHYLENE-1973
VI-7 U.S. FLUOROCARBON CONSUMPTION OF RAW MATERIALS - 1973 VI-16
VI-8 PRODUCTION/RAW MATERIALS FOR FLUOROCARBONS-1973 VI-18
VI-9 RELATED BUSINESS ACTIVITIES - FLUOROCARBONS VI-19
VI-10 SELECTED CHLORINE DEMAND CATEGORIES - 1973 VI-23
VI-11 U.S. CHLORINE PRODUCERS - 1973 VI-24
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
VI-12 U.S. HYDROFLUORIC ACID PRODUCERS - 1973 VI-28
VI-13 EMPLOYMENT IN HYDROFLUORIC ACID PRODUCTION VI-30
VI-14 U.S. FLUOROCARBON MANUFACTURERS - 1973 VI-32
VI-15 DEPENDENCE OF MANUFACTURERS ON FLUOROCARBON SALES VI-33
VI-16 U.S. CARBON TETRACHLORIDE MANUFACTURERS - 1973 VI-36
VI-17 U.S. CHLOROFORM MANUFACTURERS - 1973 VI-38
VI-18 U.S. ETHYL CHLORIDE MANUFACTURERS - 1973 VI-40
VI-19 U.S. ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE MANUFACTURERS - 1973 VI-41
VI-20 U.S. METHYL CHLORIDE AND METHYLENE CHLORIDE VI-43
MANUFACTURERS - 1973
VI-21 U.S. METHYL CHLOROFORM MANUFACTURERS - 1973 VI-45
VI-22 U.S. TRICHLOROETHYLENE AND PERCHLOROETHYLENE VI-47
MANUFACTURERS - 1973
VI-23 U.S. CHLOROCARBON INDUSTRY - 1973 VI-49
VI-24 PRODUCING COMPANIES, PLANT LOCATION, AND CAPACITIES- VI-51
PVC HOMOPOLYMER RESINS
VI-25 ESTIMATED DEPENDENCE OF MANUFACTURERS ON PVC SALES VI-54
VI-26 U.S. TETRAETHYL AND TETRAMETHYL LEAD MANUFACTURERS-1973 VI-59
VI-27 U.S. METAL CAN SHIPMENTS - 1973 VI-62
VI-28 U.S. AEROSOL CONTAINER SHIPMENTS - 1973 VI-64
VI-29 1974 AEROSOL FILLING INDUSTRY SALIENT STATISTICS VI-69
VI-30 U.S. REFRIGERATION INDUSTRY - 1973 VI-76
VI-31 AIR CONDITIONING/REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT VI-77
MANUFACTURERS - 1973
xl
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
VI-32 U.S. CONSUMPTION OF POLYURETHANE FOAM - 1973 VI-81
VII-1 ESTIMATED ANNUAL U.S. USES OF POTENTIALLY CONTROLLED VII-13
CHEMICALS - 1973
VII-2 ESTIMATED U.S. ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS FROM POTENTIALLY VII-14
CONTROLLED CHEMICALS - 1973
VII-3 DEFINITION OF USES OF POTENTIALLY CONTROLLED VII-15
CHEMICALS - 1973
VII-4 DEPENDENCE OF USE CATEGORIES ON POTENTIALLY VII-17
CONTROLLED CHEMICALS - 1973
VII-5 CONSUMING INDUSTRY RESPONSE TIMES TO CHEMICAL USE VII-18
RESTRICTIONS
VII-6 VALUE OF CHLOROCARBONS AND FLUOROCARBONS RELATED VII-20
TO PRICES OF END USE PRODUCTS - 1973
VII-7 SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM REGULATORY OPTIONS VII-22
VII-8 U.S. EMISSION REDUCTION FOR F-ll AND F-12 ACHIEVED VII-50
THROUGH 1995 WITH SELECTED REGULATORY SCENARIOS
VII-9 SUMMARY OF U.S. ANNUAL FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS WITH VII-51
AND WITHOUT CONTROL
xil
-------
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
IV-1 Types of Aerosol Containers IV-3
IV-2 Equipment Diagram for Basic Vapor Compression Cycle IV-25
IV-3 Basic Absorption Refrigeration Cycle IV-38
IV-4 Basic Vapor Degreaser IV-51
IV-5 Enclosed Conveyorized Vapor Degreaser IV-52
IV-6 Transfer-Type Drycleaning System IV-61
IV-7 Solvent Mileage IV-63
IV-8 Schematic Diagram of System Used for Injecting IV-74
Blowing Agent into Extruder for Production of
Foamed Polystyrene Sheet
V-l Flow Diagram of Aerosol Product Introduction Schedule V-14
V-2 "Optimistic" Time Sequence for Producing Substitute V-31
Chemical
V-3 "Pessimistic" Time Sequence for Producing Substitute V-32
Chemical
V-4 "Optimistic" and "Pessimistic" Time Schedules for V-35
Converting to a New Liquified Gas Propellant
V-5 "Optimistic" and "Pessimistic" Time Schedules for V-36
Converting to New Chemical Refrigerant
VI-1 Materials Flow Chart - Chlorocarbons - 1973 VI-3
VI-2 Materials Flow Chart - Fluorocarbons - 1973 VI-13
VI-3 Aerosol Filling Industry Capacity as a Function of VI-71
Number of Fillers
VII-1 Cumulative U.S. Atmospheric Emissions of F-ll and F-12 VII-54
Fluorocarbons Without Restriction and Under Regulatory
Options IA-IVA
VII-2 Cumulative U.S. Atmospheric Emissions of F-ll and F-12 VII-55
Fluorocarbons Without Restriction and Under Regulatory
Options VA-IXA
xiii
-------
I. SUMMARY
A. INTRODUCTION
After a four-month review of available information, the Federal
Task Force on Inadvertent Modification of the Stratosphere (IMOS) has
concluded that "fluorocarbons released to the environment are a legiti-
3.
mate cause for concern." The fluorocarbons are a class of commercially
important chemicals — used chiefly as aerosol propellants and refrige-
rants. They are also used as specialty solvents, in the manufacture of
plastic foam, and in a variety of other minor ways. In June 1974, two
scientists reported their contention that human health and welfare may
be seriously threatened by the accumulation of certain stable halogen-
containing organic chemicals in the atmosphere. According to their
theory, these chemicals may undergo photochemical decomposition in the
upper atmosphere which, in turn, may lead to depletion of the Earth's
ozone layer and a concomitant increase in the intensity of solar ultra-
violet radiation reaching the Earth's surface. A possible threat may
3
"Fluorocarbons and the Environment," sponsored by the Council on Environ-
mental Quality and the Federal Council for Science and Technology, June 1975.
Molina, M.J. and F.S. Rowland, "Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluoro-
methanes: Chlorine Atom Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone," Nature, 249:
810, 1974.
1-1
-------
lie in the biological and climatological effects of this increased
radiation. In any event, most scientists agree that there are important
uncertainties in the current theory and that further research and
analysis is required before conclusions may be drawn.
The Strategies and Air Standards Division of the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) asked Arthur D. Little, Inc. (ADL) to develop
estimates of U.S. and world production of fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons
and estimates of their emissions to the atmosphere, and to make a pre-
liminary assessment of the economic impact resulting from restricting
the use of five primary chemicals in the United States. The results of
the analysis are reported herein.
B. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
1. Purpose
The ADL project had four primary purposes:
1. Develop background information relating to 24 halocarbons
(15 of which are commercially important), including U.S. and
world production, use, and emissions to the atmosphere.
2. Identify and evaluate emission control strategies for five halo-
carbons identified by EPA as those most importantly involved in
the ozone depletion theory at this time. For the uses of the
See Table III-3 for a complete listing of these chemicals.
"Halocarbons" are halogen-containing hydrocarbons. The chlorofluoro-
carbons ("fluorocarbons") and the chlorocarbons are classes of halocarbons.
Throughout this report, "F" is used as an abbreviation for "fluorocarbon."
The industry numbering code (C-l, H+l, F) is used to designate specific
fluorocarbons.
1-2
-------
chemicals as aerosol propellants, refrigerants, plastic foam
blowing agents and solvents, the potential was examined for
substituting other chemicals, substituting products not using
the chemicals, and reducing the emissions by upgrading equip-
ment components and maintenance.procedures and by installing
vapor-recovery equipment.
3. Identify industry sectors which could be affected by control of
production, or use of the five halocarbons.
4. Categorize the economic impact expected to be experienced by
each industry sector under a range of regulatory scenarios.
2. Scope
Although two fluorocarbons (F-ll and F-12) have been the subjects of
greatest concern in the published discussions of potential effects on the
ozone layer, other halogen-containing compounds may also be a cause for
concern. For this reason, the current uses of 15 halogen-containing com-
pounds were defined.
This report identifies industry sectors which would be affected by
possible regulatory action levied to control atmospheric emissions of
selected halocarbons. Although a detailed economic impact assessment has
not. been attempted, potentially impacted sectors have been identified and
the level of economic impact likely to be experienced by the sectors has
been categorized. The analysis was preliminary in the sense that a
relative, rather than an absolute, economic impact assessment was
undertaken.
The evidence of a possible threat to atmospheric ozone has been dis-
cussed extensively in the literature. However, the scope of this report
. 1-3
-------
does not include an assessment of this evidence. The possible economic
benefits, if any, in reducing halocarbon emissions to the atmosphere have
not been considered. Statements in the report that alternatives are
available to current uses of halocarbons do not imply that substitutions
should occur without strong justification, since some compromise in terms
of performance or safety may be involved — as well as some level of
economic disruption.
This report focuses on five compounds which , if the ozone depletion
theory is correct, are among those which could pose a threat to the
Earth's ozone layer. Studies currently underway may disprove the ozone
depletion theory or may add other compounds to the list of those con-
sidered as potentially contributing to ozone depletion. The five compounds
suggested by EPA were fluorocarbons 11, 12, and 22 (which, according to
one theory, may prove to be an environmentally preferred alternative to
F-ll and F-12), and two chlorocarbons — carbon tetrachloride and methyl
chloroform. The other 19 chemicals are produced in relatively small
amounts, or are believed by stratospheric scientists either to decompose
in the lower atmosphere or to be produced naturally in amounts greatly
3,
exceeding man-made production.
C. APPROACH
The approach used in preparing this report involved the collection of
publicly available statistical information supplemented by interviews with
representatives of some 28 companies and associations. While information
a
Carbon tetrachloride and methyl chloroform may also be produced naturally
in the environment, according to some scientists.
1-4
-------
in this report derived from these interviews is believed to be accurate,
no inference should be made that related statements in the report are based
on a statistically valid survey.
In order to make a preliminary assessment of potential economic
impact, ADL and EPA personnel developed nine hypothetical regulatory
options divided into three implementation time frames: six months,
three years; and six years. The options further differentiated among
controls on production, emissions, and sales.
Based upon current estimated emission levels and estimated atmos-
pheric stability, two groups of chemicals were identified to which the
regulatory restrictions were applied. The first group, which represents
those chemicals having the longer atmospheric residence times, consisted
of F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetrachloride. The second group consisted of
the chemicals in the first group plus F-22 and methyl chloroform. The
application of the nine regulations to two groups of chemicals produced
18 different regulatory options. The hypothetical regulations and the
inclusion of the particular chemicals in the analysis have no official
standing as proposed regulations.
D. MAJOR FINDINGS3
Table 1-1 summarizes the estimates of production, atmsopheric emis-
sions, and stability of the five primary compounds. Table 1-2 lists the
emissions from the chemicals' primary uses. The categorization of
3This summary of findings is not.represented as presenting a sufficient
data base upon which to base important long-term decisions.
1-5
-------
Table 1-1. ESTIMATED WORLD AND U.S. PRODUCTION AND ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS
OF FIVE PRINCIPAL HALOCARBONS - 1973
Halocarbons
Fluorocarbons
F-ll
F-12
F-22
Subtotal
Chlorocarbons
Carbon tetrachloride
Methyl chloroform
Subtotal
Total
World production,
(thousands of
metric tons)
( 930
120
1,050
950
420
1,370
2,420
U.S. production,
(thousands of
metric tons)
150
220
60
430
470
250
720
1,150
World emissions,
(thousands of
metric tons)
[ 700
60
760
40
320
360
1,120
U.S. emissions,
(thousands of
metric tons)
140
170
28
340
20
200
220
560
Lifetime
in the
atmosphere
) greater than
f 10 years
1 to 10 years.
greater than
10 years
1 to 10 years
a. Production of F-ll, F-12, and F-22 accounts for approximately 90 percent of total fluorocarbon production.
b. Production of carbon tetrachloride and methyl chloroform accounts for 8 percent of total U.S. production of
commercially important chlorocarbons. Vinyl chloride represents 28 percent. Emissions of the other chloro-
carbons are not presented here because of their shorter atmospheric life.
c. Values may not add due to rounding.
'Sources: Arthur D. Little, Inc., production and emission estimates. Atmospheric lifetime estimates by
Cicerone, et al., "Stratospheric Ozone Destruction by Man-Made Chlorofluoromethanes," Science, Vol. 185
(27 September 1974), p. 1165 and references contained therein, and A.P. Altshuller, EPA (personal
communication). . " •
-------
Table 1-2. ESTIMATED U.S. ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS FROM POTENTIALLY CONTROLLED CHEMICALS - 1973
(thousands of metric tons)
Chemical
Chemical Group 1
F-ll
F-12
Carbon tetra-
chloride
Subtotal
Chemical Group 2
F-22
Methyl chloro-
form
Subtotal
Totalb
Production
150
220
470
840
60
250
310
1.150_
Production,
transport
and storage
losses
1.5
2.2
7.1
11
0.6
2.5
3.1
14
^ Estimated annual emissions from use and disposal . „_
Propellant
.
107
113
_
220
small
_
small
220
Refrigerant
5
59
_
64
27
^
27
91
Solvent
small
-
ioa
10
-
195
195
205
Blowing
agent
13
3.4
_
16
• -
• _
-
16
Use as inter-
med . chemical
-
-
3.8
3.8
small
small
small
3.8
Total
125
180
20
325
28
200
225
550
M
a. Predominantly from use in pesticides.
b. Values may not add due to rounding.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
potential economic Impacts resulting from the application of nine alter-
nate regulations for reducing emissions of the three most stable compounds
(F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetrachloride) is shown in Table 1-3. The major
findings of the report are listed below:
• Total world production of the three primary fluorocarbons and chloro-
carbons with estimated atmospheric lifetimes of more than ten years was
1.9 million metric tons in 1973. World production of the two primary
chemicals with lifetimes of one to ten years was 540,000 metric tons.
The United States accounted for approximately 45 percent of the world
production of fluorocarbons 11 and 12 and carbon tetrachloride. The U.S.
production of fluorocarbon 22 and methyl chloroform was about 55 percent
of world production. European production of the two chemical groups was
approximately 40 percent and 30 percent respectively of world production.
World emissions of carbon tetrachloride were only about 5 percent of
world F-ll and F-12 emissions.
• Total world emissions to the atmosphere of F-ll, F-12. and carbon tetra-
chloride were about 740,000 metric tons in 1973 (40 percent of production).
World emissions of F-22 and methyl chloroform were 380,000 metric tons
(75 percent of production).
The geographical distribution of emissions approximately equals the
production distribution. Propellant uses of the chemicals with atmos-
pheric lives greater than ten years resulted in 70 percent of their
atmospheric emissions, and refrigerant uses accounted for 20 percent.
Eighty-six percent of total F-22 and methyl chloroform emissions were
produced by solvent uses of the methyl chloroform. Refrigerant uses of
F-22 resulted in 13 percent of total atmospheric emissions for these two
chemicals.
1-8
-------
Table 1-3. SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
RESULTING FROM RESTRICTION ON U.S. USE OF F-ll, F-12 AND CARBON TETRACHLORIDE
H
V0
Sector size related
to controlled
chemicals 1972/1973
Approximate
production value
($millions)
Employment .
(thousands)
Regulatory
options
ID
5
|
>o
CD
M
a
0) ,
CO
1.
2.
3.
4.
, 5.
6.
7.
8.
CO
i
X
9.
emission
reduction
92Z
82Z
70Z
80Z
83Z
74Z
63Z
69Z
54Z
< i . 'Tmpnrr Sectors _ ^
Basic
chemical
producers
$360
3
2-3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
- Propellant applications .^
~~ Aerosol industry *""
Independent
fillers
$130
7
1
1
1
1
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
3-5
Can manu-
factures
$300
2.5
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
5
5
Valve manu-
factures
$60
2
1
1
1
1
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
3-5
Aerosol
marketers
$1,000
7.5
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
5
j*. Non-prooellant applications "^
~Air conditioning and
refrigeration
manufacturers
$7,000
150
1
4
5
4
1-2
4
5
5
5
Plastic *"
foam
producers
$600
35
2
3
4
3-4
3
3
4
4
4
REGULATORY OPTIONS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Ban all but replacement uses of controlled chemicals after six months
Regulation of non-propellant uses and ban of propellent uses after six months
No regulation of non-propellant uses and ban of propellent uses after six months
Government control of total chemical production after six months
Ban all but replacement uses of controlled chemicals after three years
Regulation of non-propellant uses and ban of propellant uses after three years
No regulation of non-propellant uses and a ban of propellant uses after three years
Government control of total chemical production after three years
IMPACT CODE
1 - severe
2 - substantial
3 - moderate
4 - limited
5 - essentially none
*See Chapter VII of report
for definition of terms.
9. No regulation of non-propellant applications 'and ban of propellant.uses after six years
a. Percent reduction in U.S. F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetrachloride emissions to the atmosphere over a 20 year period beginning In
1976. A 5 percent demand growth is assumed in the absence of controls; no restriction on critical propellant uses (5 percent
of total), a 5 year half-life for refrigerants and 50 percent control of emissions from plastic foams are assumed.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
e If the majority of the longer lived emissions are to be ended, the
use of F-ll and F-12 as propellants must be greatly reduced. Significant
emission level reductions may be achieved from the other use cate-
gories of the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons by upgrading equipment
components and by improved maintenance practices.
The total projected emissions of F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetrachloride
over a 20-year period could be reduced by 75 percent should propellant
uses of F-ll and F-12 be banned after three years and the equipment using
them as refrigerants and blowing agents be modified to reduce or recover
losses to the atmosphere. An immediate end of emissions is not possible
due to leakage from previous charges of refrigeration and air conditioning
equipment with F-ll and F-12.
• Identifiable alternatives exist for the fluorocarbons and chlorocar-
bons or for the major products in which they are now used.
For many important uses of the chemicals, a conversion time of one
to five years would be necessary before alternative products could be
produced in adequate quantities. In some cases, conversion times of up
to ten years may be required. While the substitute products will perform
the primary functions of the chemicals or products using the chemicals,
the substitution may result in different (often less desirable) cost or
performance characteristics.
• A ban of propellant uses of F-ll and F-12 after three years would most
strongly impact certain components of the aerosol industry, such as con-
tract can fillers and aerosol valve manufacturers. A ban of other uses
of F-ll and F-12 after three years would seriously affect major segments
of the refrigeration industry.
1-10
-------
A ban of all uses of F-ll and F-12 after six months would severely
impact the refrigeration industry and segments of the aerosol industry
and the foam products industry. Requirements for improved vapor recovery
from non-propellant uses of the chemicals would, in almost all instances,
have only slight economic impact.
E. CHAPTER SUMMARIES
In addition to the major findings of this study summarized above,
the following is a synopsis of Chapters II-VII. It is important to recog-
nize that in preparing the chapter summaries, generalizations have been
made in the interest of greater ease of understanding; thus, statements
in the summaries do not fully explain the complexities of the study on a
given point.
1. Chapter II-Halocarbon Production and Use
A summary of U.S. and world production of the five primary compounds
(F-ll, F-12, F-22, carbon tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform) is pre-
sented in Table 1-1. Similar information for the remaining commercially
important halocarbpns is discussed in Chapter II. Estimated world pro-
duction of fluorocarbons 11 and 12 exceeded 900,000 metric tons in 1973.
U.S. production of these two fluorocarbons represents approximately 40
percent of the world total. Of the five principal compounds, carbon
tetrachloride is the single most important in terms of production volume;
however, nearly all of this production is used in the manufacture of
fluorocarbons 11 and, 12. Applications of the three fluorocarbons (F-ll,
F-12, and F-22) as prppellants and refrigerants are by far the most
important, accounting for approximately 80 percent of total demand for
these compounds. The primary use of methyl chloroform is as an industrial
1-11
-------
cleaning solvent. The major applications for the other commercially
important halocarbons are as solvents and as chemical intermediates for
the production of plastics and a variety of other materials.
2. Chapter III-Halocarbon Emissions to the Atmosphere
A summary of estimated U.S. and world emissions to the atmosphere of
the five key compounds of interest is presented in Table 1-1. Estimated
>
world emissions of fluorocarbons 11 and 12 were 700,000 metric tons in
1973. Estimated U.S. emissions of these two fluorocarbons in 1973 amounted
to 310,000 metric tons, or approximately 45 percent of the total world
emissions. Worldwide emissions of fluorocarbon 22 are small by compari-
son — about 60,000 metric tons. The major source of U.S. and world
fluorocarbon emissions to the atmosphere is the use of the chemicals as
Q
propellants in aerosols. This emission source accounts for an estimated
60 percent of total world emissions. Fluorocarbon emissions from refri-
geration and air conditioning equipment are second in importance to those
from aerosols, accounting for approximately 25 percent of total world
emissions. Within these two fluorocarbon emission categories, the largest
subcategories are personal care aerosols (mainly hairsprays and anti-
perspirants) and air conditioners (chiefly mobile and large commercial
units) respectively.
3. Chapter IV-Analysis of Major U.S. Emission Sources and Alternatives
for Emmision Abatement
The opportunities for substituting other chemicals or products for
the five principal chemicals are presented in Table 1-4. The table also
F-22 use in aerosols is negligible.
1-12
-------
Table 1-4 SUBSTITUTION ALTERNATIVES AND EMISSION REDUCTION POSSIBILITIES
FOR FIVE PRIMARY CHEMICALS
Chemical
Major
chemical
uses
Fluorocarbons
(F-ll, F-12, & F-22)
i
!-•
OJ
Chlorocarbons
Carbon tetrachloride
Methyl chloroform
Aerosol propellant
Refrigerant
Blowing agent, other
(predominently used in
the production of F-ll
and F12)
Cleaning solvent
Emission control opportunities
Substitute chemical or
product alternatives
Emission reduction
alternatives
Substitute propellants
or products
F-ll & F-12 to F-22, or
F-ll, F-12 &-F-22 to other1
refrigerants or systems
Substitute blowing agents
Other solvents
None
Upgrade components
Improve maintenance
Install vapor
recovery equipment
Install vapor
recovery equipment
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry contacts.
-------
shows where emission reductions can be achieved as an alternative to
banning the use of the chemicals.
In all of the end use categories reviewed above, with the exception
of aerosol propellant applications, emission control and recovery appears
to be an effective means of significantly reducing emissions of fluoro-
carbons F-ll, F-12, F-22, and methyl chloroform. Carbon tetrachloride
\
emissions are already relatively small and are derived mainly from manu-
facture of F-ll and F-12. Carbon tetrachloride emissions should therefore
be reduced in proportion to the reduced demand for F-ll and F-12 which
would accompany reduced emissions of these compounds.
By the very nature of their use as aerosol propellants, emissions
of F-ll and F-12 from this application can only be achieved through sub-
stitution of other propellants or other delivery systems. While no widely
accepted propellant substitutes having similar cost/performance charac-
teristics are now available (note discussion below), it appears that
alternative products are available should it be required that the use
of fluorocarbon aerosols be restricted or banned.
a. Aerosol Propellants - The greatest volume of fluorocarbon use (mainly
F-ll and F-12) is in aerosol propellant and vapor depressant applications —
predominantly personal care products such as hairsprays and deodorants.
The fluorocarbons' combination of appropriate vapor pressure, low toxicity,
and non-flammability results in safe aerosol products with good consumer
acceptance. Other lower cost propellants, such as compressed gases and
hydrocarbons, are available and in use. However, these substitutes have
not yet been widely accepted since they have different performance charac-
teristics.
1-14
-------
Non-aerosol products intended to serve markets now dominated by
aerosol products have been available to consumers for some time. In the
event of a ban of the fluorocarbon aerosols, the production of the non-
aerosol products can be increased. However, since consumers have seen
a difference between the non-aerosol and aerosol products, they may not
completely convert to the non-aerosol products if the aerosol products
are banned, and a net loss of industry sales may result.
b. Refrigerants - Large quantities of fluorocarbons (mainly F-12 and
F-22) are also used as refrigerants in both small and large air condi-
tioning, refrigeration and freezing systems. Most systems now manufactured
using F-ll or F-12 could probably be redesigned (at a cost) to use F-22,
if its emissions are shown to be acceptable. However, previous attempts
to produce refrigeration equipment and automobile air conditioners using
F-22 have not been successful. Other equally safe refrigerants are not
available for use in the common vapor-compression systems now used in the
majority of applications. However, other refrigerants may be more environ-
mentally acceptable than the fluorocarbons if the ozone depletion theory
is validated. Absorption refrigeration systems represent a possible long-
term substitute to the fluorocarbon-based vapor-compression designs, and
these systems may be good alternatives for some applications if the use
of all fluorocarbons as refrigerants must be curtailed. On balance, the
alternatives available for complete elimination of F-ll and F-12 emissions
from refrigerant applications appear to be unattractive at this time.
If limited fluorocarbon emissions are acceptable, it appears that
significant reductions in emissions to the atmosphere can be achieved by
establishing new maintenance and repair procedures, redesigning certain
1-15
-------
equipment components such as tubing connectors and hoses on mobile systems,
and recovering the refrigerant from discarded equipment. The economic
impact on the producers and on product prices would be much less than that
of a forced conversion to refrigeration systems not using fluorocarbons.
c. Foam-Blowing Agents - It appears that atmospheric emissions of fluoro-
carbons (mainly F-ll) in plastic foam manufacturing may be eliminated by
converting to use of methylene chloride as a blowing agent in flexible
foams (which represent about 60 percent of F-ll foam use). While use of
other blowing agents such as carbon dioxide and water in rigid foams is
possible, the foams lose much of their insulating properties and thus
their technical and economic competitive advantage.
The fluorocarbon vapors produced in making foam products are now
vented to the atmosphere. It is possible that vapor-recovery equipment
could be developed for recapturing the F-ll, but such equipment is not
now in existence.
d. Solvent Applications - Of the five primary chemicals examined in this
study, only methyl chloroform has important solvent uses. It is used
primarily as a metal cleaning solvent in both cold cleaning and vapor
degreasing. There are several possible substitute solvents available;
the major ones are: perchloroethylene, trichloroethylene, methylene
chloride, and various fluorocarbon solvents. However, changing to any
of these solvents can present some serious technical problems with equip-
ment designed to use methyl chloroform. Other cleaning systems not using
halocarbons are available, but are often more hazardous, less effective,
or require more expensive operating equipment. Emissions may be greatly
reduced in many cases by close adherence to recommended operating procedures.
1-16
-------
Emission control is also possible using well-established solvent recovery
systems or other control technology which can often pay for itself in
several years by lowering make-up solvent costs.
4. Chapter V-Conversion Timetables
Whichever alternatives are chosen, there is a finite response time
for upgrading equipment using the chemicals or for developing and intro-
ducing alternative chemicals and products. Table 1-5 lists the estimated
response time of the consuming industries to restrictions on the use of
the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons. The magnitude of economic disruption
resulting from implementation of the alternative regulatory strategies
is critically dependent on when the regulation is imposed and thus the
response time available to chemical producers, substitute product pro-
ducers, and the consumers of the chemicals. The conversion response
times, which approximate the minimum time periods required for rapid yet
minimally disruptive conversion to alternatives, may be of two types:
conversion to a substitute chemical or conversion to an alternative pro-
duct for satisfying the demand for products currently using the controlled
chemicals. These response times could range from as short as one year
for expanding production of existing products currently competing with
products using the controlled chemicals to as long as ten years for the
development, testing, and construction of manufacturing facilities for a
totally new aerosol propellant.
5. Chapter VI-Definition of Primary Affected Industry Sectors
Ten .primary industry sectors were examined in the ADL study. They
ranged from the raw material producers to the sectors consuming the
fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons. Table 1-6 provides a summary
1-17
-------
Table 1-5 CONSUMING INDUSTRY RESPONSE TIMES TO CHEMICAL USE RESTRICTIONS
Consumine Industry
Intermediate chemical applications
Propellant applications
Refrigerant applications
Appliances
Mobile air conditioners
Home air conditioners
Commercial refrigeration
Commercial air conditioners
- reciprocating
- centrifugal
Blowing agent applications
Flexible foams
Rigid foams
Solvent applications
Emission reduction by
^equipment upgrading
(years)
Not an option
Not an option
2-3
3-4
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
1
Primary response
to ban of chemical use
(years)
2-7
1-2
to absorption to F-22
4-6 3-4
Indefinite Indefinite
3-5 zero
4-6 3-4
3-5 2-3
2-3 1-3
six months
3
1-2
Conversion to
substitute chemicals
(years)
5-10
4-10
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
six months
4-9
4-9
I
(-•
OO
a. The primary response times are the elapsed times required for the consuming industries to
introduce substitute products to meet the demand now satisfied by the controlled chemicals
or products using the chemicals.
b. The conversion to substitute chemicals times are those required to develop new chemicals
with properties similar to the banned compounds and to modify the products using the banned
chemicals.
c. In the event of a ban of F-ll and F-12, most refrigerant applications could be converted to
F-22. If F-22 is also banned, other refrigerants could be used or some products could be
converted to absorption systems.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry contacts.
-------
Table 1-6. ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTION VALUE RELATED
TO FLUOROCARBON AND CHLOROCARBON PRODUCTION AND
CONSUMPTION - 1973
Raw materials:
Chlorine
Hydrofluoric acid
Basic chemical production:
Fluorocarbons
Chlorocarbons
Aerosols:
a
Containers
Valves, caps & related
materials
Concentrate ingredients
Aerosol fillers^ .
Aerosol marketers (total)
Production
support (R&D, marketing,
etc.)
Refrigeration: (1972)
Refrigeration equipment
. Household refrigerators
ft freezers
Blowing agent applications:
Foam and derived products
Raw materials
Solvent Applications
Chemical intermediate
Total
industry
employment
10,300
800
2,700
6,600
68,200
NAb
NA
14,000
15,000
6,000
9,000
120,000
32,000
45-, 000
10,000
NA
NA
Directly0
related
employment
1,350
330
2,700 .
1,320
2,500
2,000
NA
7,000
7,500
3,000
4,500
120,000
32,000
30,000
5,000
NA
3,000
Total
industry
production
value 1973.
($, millions)
490
140
240
600
4,900
NAb
NA
250
2,000
5,600
1,600
1,000
460
NA
NA
Directly
related
production
value 1973,
($, millions)
60
55
240
120
190
60
NA
130
1,000
5,600
1,600
600
230
NA
25
a. Includes only cans which represent 95 percent of total aerosol containers.
b. NA = not available.
c. .Related employment refers.to production of F-ll, F-12, F-22, carbon tetra-
; chloride and methyl chloroform.
d. Directly related .employment and production of aerosol fillers and marketers
was estimated as 50 percent of total industry employment and production.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
1-19
-------
characterization of these industry sectors. The employment values
directly related to the production or use of fluorocarbons or chloro-
carbons should not be regarded as an estimate of the jobs to be lost if
the production of the chemicals is ended or reduced. Some of these jobs
may be lost, but many would only be affected to the extent of having to
use different chemicals or materials. Because of the preliminary nature
of the impact analysis in this report, no attempt has been made to
estimate job losses or gains as a result of restrictions in the use of
the chemicals.
a. Raw Material Producers -^ The raw materials used in the production of
chlorocarbons and fluorocarbons which were examined in the study are chlorine
and hydrofluoric acid. They are the raw materials which have a significant
portion of their production dedicated to the chlorocarbons and fluorocar-
bons. An estimated 13 percent (by weight) of chlorine demand, with a
production value of approximately $60 million in 1973, is used in the pro-
duction of the five primary chemicals: F-ll, F-12, F-22, methyl chloroform,
and carbon tetrachloride. An estimated 42 percent of hydrofluoric acid
demand, with a production value of about $55 million in 1973, is consumed
in the production of the three fluorocarbons — F-ll, F-12, and F-22, A
large volume of the raw materials and basic chemicals is not sold on the
open market but consumed by other segments of the producing companies.
For this reason, "production values" have been estimated by applying market
prices to all production—rather than reporting sales, which would under-
state the value of the chemicals produced by each firm.
1-20
-------
In 1973, the value of the production of F-ll, F-12, and F-22 was
approximately $240 million, and the value of carbon tetrachloride and
methyl chloroform was about $590 million. The sum of methyl chloroform,
carbon tetrachloride, and the portion of chloroform production used to
make fluorocarbons was ah estimated 12 percent of total chlorocarbon
value (including vinyl chloride) in 1973, or $120 million. Raw material
and basic chemical production are capital-intensive operations and, as a
result, related employment for the production of the five chemicals is
relatively small at about 4,500 employees.
b. Aerosol Producers - Aerosol products had an estimated $2 billion manu-
facturer '.s value in 1973. About half of the 3 billion units were propelled
by fluorocarbons. Approximately 60 percent of the aerosol products are
filled by contract fillers; the remaining 40 percent are filled by the
aerosol product marketers. The aerosol fillers are characteristically
small companies whose business is heavily dependent on the filling of
aerosol products. However, there are several large aerosol fillers which
account for more than 30 percent of the industry filling capacity yet.
represent only 3 percent of the total number of firms. The aerosol
marketers are generally large corporations who are much less dependent
on aerosol products as their primary activity than are the aerosol fillers.
Employment by contract fillers and my manufacturers of aerosol containers,
valves, caps, and related materials, directly related to products using
fluorocarbon propellants, is an estimated 11,500. Tn addition, an
estimated 7,500 persons are employed by aerosol marketers in production,
research and development, sales, and other support activities directly
related to products using fluorocarbon propellants.
1-21
-------
c. Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry - In terms of
employment and production value, the refrigeration industry
is the largest industry sector which would be significantly
affected by restricting the use of the fluorocarbons. Production value
of refrigeration equipment and household refrigerators and freezers was
$7.2 billion in 1972. Directly related employment was 150,000 in 1972.
In addition, an estimated 280,000 employees are indirectly related to
the manufacture of air conditioning and refrigeration equipment, being
involved in service, sales, and other related industries. The industry
is characterized as mature, relatively concentrated, and highly compe-
titive. Air conditioning and refrigeration equipment sales account for
a large portion of the total sales of many firms in the industry. For
some firms, such as the large automobile and appliance manufacturers,
sales of refrigeration equipment and air conditioners do not represent
a large portion of total corporate sales.
d. Foam Products Industry - Employment in the production of chemical raw
materials used in the manufacture of foams and in the production of foam
products themselves totals an estimated 55,000. The production value of foam
products is approximately $1 billion. However, fluorocarbon blowing agents
are used in the manufacture of only 60 percent of foam products, so the
related foam production value and total employment can be estimated at
approximately $600 million and 35,000 respectively. It is assumed that
foam users would use an alternative product and would thus have few, if
any, employment and sales effects.
1-22
-------
e. Solvent Applications - Estimates of employment and yiyduction value
have not been made for the users of the chemicals as solvents since they
are so diffuse. The solvent users include the Defense Department, various
metalworking shops, electronic component manufacturers, and many others.
They cannot be classed as a single group, as has been done, for example,
with, the refrigeration industry.
6. Chapter VII-Initial Economic Impact Assessment
The categorization of the potential economic impacts resulting from
implementing nine regulatory options for reducing atmospheric emissions
of F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetrachloride is shown in Table 1-3. The
application of the nine regulatory options to production and use of the
less stable compounds (F-22 and methyl chloroform) is reported in Chapter VII.
The preliminary economic impact assessment shown in table 1-3 was
developed by considering the following principal factors:
• The availability of substitute products to the major industry
sectors now consuming the chemicals,
• The current dependence of the consumiug sectors on the
potentially controlled chemicals,
• The current availability of vapor-recovery or vapor-reduction
technologies,
• The estimated elapsed time required for the industries now
using the chemicals to convert to alternative chemicals,
processes or products,
• The relative importance of the affected products to the overall
business activities of which they are a part,
I~23
-------
• The relative importance of the cost of the chemicals to final
product prices,
• The degree to which the facilities producing the chemicals can
be converted to non-regulated chemicals,
• The integration of the production of the chemicals, or products
using the chemicals, into large complexes of unaffected produc-
tion activities as opposed to plants primarily dedicated to 'the
affected products, and
• The potential for threatening the viability of the producing
firms as opposed to a small or moderate reduction in their
sales.
There are six industry sectors which would primarily be affected
by restrictions on the use of fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons:
• -Producers of the chemicals ,
• Firms using the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons as chemical
intermediates ,
• Firms using the chemicals as propellants,
• Firms using the chemicals as refrigerants,
• Firms using the chemicals as blowing agents, and
• Firms using the chemicals as solvents.
For these six sectors, emission reduction strategies of two types
have been considered. The first, which is not feasible for aerosol
propellants, is to upgrade the equipment using the chemicals so that
emissions to the atmosphere are reduced even though the chemicals
continue to be used. For refrigeration and solvent uses of the chemicals,
and probably blowing agent uses, significant emission reductions can be
1-24
-------
achieved using this approach. The second strategy (the only one feasible
for propellant applications) is to require or encourage development and
use of substitute chemicals or substitutes to the products, currently using
the chemicals. It is important to remember that for non-propellant appli-
cations, especially, this strategy involves a considerable investment in
terms of added research and development.
The nine regulatory options summarized in Table 1-3 were defined
through discussions with the EPA and are intended to achieve a range of
reductions of emissions to the atmosphere of.the three compounds over a
given time range. These potential regulatory strategies have no official
standing; they are intended only to identify a range of alternatives and
to enable a more specific discussion of the relative disruptions likely
to occur in the six U.S. economic sectors shown. Other regulatory actions
are possible and will undoubtedly be considered if a decision is made to
reduce emissions.
The promulgation of a ban of all uses of E-ll, F-12, and carbon
tetrachloride after six months (regulatory option 1) would result in an
estimated 92 percent reduction in the total projected U.S. emissions of
a
the compounds over a 20-year period. A ban of only propellant uses
(option 3) would result in a 70 percent reduction in emissions to the
atmosphere over the 20 years. If, instead of banning the uses after six
a
On the assumption that the decision to issue the regulation is made in
January 1976, the 20-year period runs from January 1976 to January 1996.
A 5 percent per year use growth rate in the absence of the ban is assumed.
1-25
-------
months, the ban on all uses is set for three years after the January 1976
decision (option 5), then the emission reduction would be 83 percent
instead of 92 percent. Imposing a ban on only propellant uses after three
years (option 7) would produce 63 percent lower emissions. Option 9, a
ban of propellant uses after six years, would result in a 54 percent emis-
sion reduction over the 20-year period.
The regulatory alternatives have a range of potential economic ^impacts
a
from "severe" to "essentially none" on the seven industry sectors
examined. A ban of propellant uses of F-ll and F-12 after six months
would have a severe impact on contract fillers of aerosol cans and the
manufacturers of aerosol valves. The impact on the aerosol marketers
would be moderate. Postponing the ban for three years would reduce the
potential impact on the fillers and valve manufacturers to a limited to
moderate level, depending on consumer acceptance and availability of new
aerosol products not using F-ll and F-12. With the ban held off for six
years, the impact on the valve manufacturers and fillers is projected to
range from limited to essentially none. However, announcement of a ban
to be placed in effect in six years (or three years) could speed the
change cycle considerably as marketers of the alternative products vie
for market share. In this instance, the economic impact on the current
manufacturers could be substantially greater than shown here.
A ban imposed on refrigeration uses of F-ll and F-12 after six months
is expected to result in severe impacts on the refrigeration and air con-
ditioning industry. A ban after three years could also be severe but
a
See Chapter VII of the report for definition of these terms.
1-26
-------
is more likely to be in the moderate category. Products using substitute
refrigerants or substitute refrigeration technologies could not be ex-
pected to be available for approximately three years — and then only in
limited quantities. Regulations which substantially increase the price
of F-ll and F-12 or which require upgrading of the refrigeration equip-
ment and maintenance in order to reduce emissions are not expected to have
a detrimental effect on the producers beyond some modest increase in
product prices. \
A ban of major uses of the chemicals after six months or three years
is expected to have a limited impact on the viability of the chemical
producers. While the regulations would end all or much of the production
of the controlled chemicals, and some plant might even be closed, the value
of the products represents less than 10 percent of the chemical sales of
all but one producer. It is important to realize, however, that most
halocarbon producers are integrated and that balances between raw materials
and various products can be critical to efficient operation. The impact
on this sector of the chemical industry could therefore be much greater
than the level indicated when individual firms are considered.
The nine regulatory options can be ranked by their reduction in
potential emissions and by potential economic impact on each industrial
sector. Generally the ordering of the emission reduction and the economic
impacts are in opposite directions. However, it is not possible to select
an optimal regulatory option knowing only the emission reductions and the
economic impacts. It is not known, for example, whether fluorocarbon
emissions are a correct measure of potential impact on the ozone. The
emission reductions cited above are over a 20-year period following a
1-27
-------
decision to ban the uses of the chemicals. As an alternative measure,
an estimate is made in the report of the reduction in total emissions
(measured from the time when the chemicals were first produced) as a
result of initiating the regulatory options in 1976. Other ways of
measuring emissions can be suggested, but a generally accepted approach
has not yet been developed. Alternative methods would probably not
change the ranking of the regulatory alternatives but would allow an
identification of which regulations resulted in acceptable levels of
emissions and a specification of the length of time before they were
achieved.
Following from a need to define the correct measure of emissions is
the need to quantify the benefits of reducing the level of emissions. The
benefits would be the damages (if any) avoided by not having the ozone
layer diminished. In order to select among the regulatory options, one
must have some direct or indirect way of estimating the possible benefits
of issuing the regulations. The incremental benefits must then be com-
pared with the incremental costs which would result from implementing the
regulations. The decision is much more complex than simply considering
emission reductions versus a categorzation of economic impacts. The results
of this report should be regarded as a partial information base and are
not in themselves a sufficient data set on which to base long-term decisions.
In addition to developing measures of possible benefits coming from
emission reductions, one must consider that if there is a danger to the
ozone layer, it is a worldwide danger. U.S. halocarbon emissions account
for only about half of current worldwide emissions. In addition, it is
likely that the emissions growth rate will continue to be greater outside
1-28
-------
the United States. Thus, restrictions on U.S. emissions could affect
only about half the current emissions and a diminishing share of world
emissions in the future. If substantial reductions in worldwide emissions
should becoae necessary, other countries will also eventually have to
reduce atmospheric emissions of these compounds.
1-29
-------
II. HALOCARBON PRODUCTION AND USE
A. INTRODUCTION
This chapter presents both U.S. and world production and end-use data for
the compounds of interest. While data of this type are generally available
(at least for the chlorocarbons) in the U.S., this is not the case for
other regions of the world. Available data have been collected and, where
necessary, estimates have been made of likely world data for ten commer-
cially important chlorocarbons and for five major chlorofluorocarbons: F-ll,
F-12, F-22, F-113 and F-114.a '
Based on the information presented in this chapter, it is possible to
gain an appreciation for the major role played by the U.S. arid Europe in the
production and use of the compounds of interest. Together these two regions
of the world share anywhere from 75 to 90 percent of the world's production
of these chemicals. While the consumption share in these regions is probably
somewhat lower because of exports to less industrialized regions of the
world, it is certainly on the same order of magnitude as the production share.
End-use patterns, for most of the chemicals studies, are nearly the
same throughout the world. Notable exceptions are the greater proportion
of propellant applications for fluorocarbons in Europe relative to the U.S.
and also wider use of trichloroethylene for metal cleaning outside the U.S.
throughout the report, "F" is used as an abbreviation for "fluorocarbon;"
the numbers (11, 12, etc.) are commonly used identification for specified
compounds.
II-l
-------
B. FLUOROCARBON PRODUCTION AND USE
1. United States
a. Production - United States production data for the five major fluorocar-
bons from 1960 to 1974 are presented in Table II-l. Fluorocarbons 12 and
11 are produced in greatest quantity, accounting for nearly 80 percent of
total production in 1974. Fluorocarbon 22 represents approximately 13 per-
cent of current production and all other fluorocarbons combined contribute
less than ten percent of the total.
Production of these chemicals has increased greatly over the past decader—
with the exception of F-114. Between 1964 and 1974, production of F-22
increased at an average compound rate of 9 percent per annum. Production
of F-12 increased at a rate of approximately 8 percent per annum during the
same period. The production increase between 1964 and 1974 for F-ll repre-
sents a growth rate midway between those of fluorocarbons 12 and 22. In
contrast to these three compounds, F-113 has experienced very rapid growth
(over 18 percent per annum) in the past ten years and F-114 has experienced
only moderate growth since 1965.
United States fluorocarbon producers and their current capacities are
presented in Table II-2. Of the six U.S. producers, DuPont has the largest
capacity with 42 percent of the total, while Allied Chemical is second with
26 percent. Union Carbide, Pennwalt, Kaiser and Racon together, account for
the remaining 32 percent. The completion and start-up of DuPont's 500 million
pound fluorocarbon production plant in Corpus Christi, Texas, may be delayed
indefinitely because of the questionable future of fluorocarbons. Total
production in 1973 was equal to approximately 88 percent of reported capacity.
II-2
-------
Table II-l. UNITED STATES FLUOROCARBON PRODUCTION DATA
(millions of pounds)
Year
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973°
1974°
1974
Percent
of total
F-ll
••.••• J s
: '72 :
91
125
140
149
171
170.
182'
204
239
245
258
300
334
347
32
F-12
'• '• ; -",
165 r
174
208
217
228 •
271
286 ]
310
326
368
375
390
439
489
509
46
F-22
"'' '.' '-1 "
40
45 •
49 '
54
59
64
70
78 '
86
94
i'
100
112
123
136
141
13
F-113
.,
.'Sm ,''...
Sm.
Sm.
Sm.
12
14
16
21
25
30
36
43
50
59
64
6
F-114
• f I : '. •
10
Sm'.
11 '
12
13
22
19
23
20
21
.• • "• •• '
22
23
25
26
27
2
Others
.
Sm. . s
Sm.
Sm.
Sm.
Sm.
Sm.
Sm.
Sm.
Sm.
Sm.
• I
Sm.
Sm.
Sm.
12
14
1
Total
>287
>310
>393
>423
>461
>542
>561
>614
>661
>752
>778
>826
>937
1056
1102
\
X>9700
••100 >^
a. Includes F-13, F-14, F-21, F-115, F-116 and others.
b. Sm. = less than 10 million pounds.
c. One industry source believes production of F-ll; and p12 is overstated.
Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
estimates, based on industry contacts.
II-3
-------
Table II-2. UNITED STATES FLUOROCARBON PRODUCTION CAPACITY BY PRODUCER-1973
(units as Indicated below)
Producer
Allied
DuPont
Kaiser
Pennwalt
Racon
Union Carbide
Total
Million
Ib/yr.
310
500
50
115
20
200
1,195
Thousand
metric tons/yr.
141
227
23
52
9
90
542
Percent current
national capacity
26
42
4
10
1
17
100
a. Nameplate capacity based on published estimates.
Sources: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur D. Little, Inc.
II-4
-------
b. End Use - A distribution of fluorocarbbii consumption by end use for the
years 1963, 1968 and 1973 is presented in Table II-3a. Aerosol propellants
have consistently been the major application throughout this period, consuming
49 percent of fluorocarbonproduction in 1973. The next largest use has
been as refrigerants, while uses in the manufacture of plastics, as solvents,
and in plastic foam blowing applications have each consumed between four
and seven percent. Other small applications of fluorocarboris include use
as fire extinguishing agents, dielectric fluids and cutting fluids.
Propellant applications of fluorocarbons are skewed heavily toward per-
sonal products.such, as aerosol-anti-perspirarits and hair sprays. These two
products, along with deoderants, account for approximately 75 percent of
fluorocarbon propellant use. The only other single application accounting
for more than 3.5 percent of fluorocarbon propellant use is the medicinal and
pharmaceutical product category which adds another 4 percent to the personal
product total. Further detaila of propellant applications, as well as details
of those uses discussed below, are presented in Chapter IV of this report.
Use of fluorocarbons as refrigerants is predominantly in air-conditioning
applications, which account for over 85 percent of annual fluorocarbon con-
sumption in this end-use category. The largest single use of fluorocarbon
refrigerants is in various central air-conditioning units which consume
approximately 30 percent of current annual use. Second largest, with approxi-
mately 25 percent is mobile(mainly automobile) air-conditioning. All other
a. For a graphic representation of fluorocarbon uses see Figure VI-2.
II-5
-------
Table II -3. UNITED STATES FLUOROCARBON CONSUMPTION BY END USE
(percent)
End use
Aerosol propellants
Refrigerants
Plastics and resins
Solvents
Foam blowing agents
Exports and other
Total
1963
49
29
10
2
5
5
100
1968
45
30
10
5
4
6
100
1973
49
28
4
5
7
7
100
Sources: Chemical Economics Handbook. Chemical Marketing Reporter and
Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
II-6
-------
refrigerant use categories are relatively small, with only a few accounting
for more than about 5 percent of annual refrigerant demand each.
Foam blowing agent applications are much "smaller th'an the prbpellant
and refrigerant uses discussed above. Rigid polyurethane foams (about 50
percent), and flexible polyurethane foams (about 40 percent) account for
nearly all of the halocarbonsb used in the manufacture of plastic foams.
Thermoplastic foam manufacture accounts for about 20 percent of the total.
These foam products are widely used in padding and insulation applications,
and in the latter case, the fluorocarbon trapped in the foam adds to its
Insulating properties.
Solvent and polymer uses of fluorocarbons account for 5 and 4 percent
of demand respectively. Earlier estimates of polymer use are believed to
have been overstated. The key solvent applications are in the aerospace
and electronics industries. Fluorocarbon polymers have unique properties
which make them valuable iri a number of special applications where a low
coefficient of friction and chemical inertness are important.
b. Approximately 90 percent of the halocarbons used as blowing agents are
fluorocarbons.
II-7
-------
2. World
a. Production - World fluorocarbon capacity and production dat;a for 1973 are
presented in Table 11-4. United States capacity, at 542 thousand metric tons,
represents 44 percent of the total. Europe, with a capacity of 500 thousand
metric tons per year, accounts for an additional 41 percent of world capacity.
Japan's fluorocarbon production capacity is approximately 100 thousand metric
tons per year, which represents 8 percent of the total. Other regions of the
world, including Latin America, Australia and the USSR are estimated to repre-
sent 7 percent of world fluorocarbon capacity.
Announced capacity expansion plans, if implemented, would raise total
world capacity to approximately 1.6 million metric tons by 1977/78. This
represents a world compound growth rate of 6-7 percent per annum. Actual
unrestricted world demand growth for these compounds is forecast to be
approximately 8-9 percent per annum over the next five years. Current-
atmospheric concerns may restrict this growth. Fluorocarbons 11 and 12
represented an estimated 86 percent of world fluorocarbon production in 1973.
b. End Use - Table II-5 presents estimated world consumption by end use for
fluorocarbons. Consumption in other parts of the world is believed to approxi-
mate the pattern seen in the United States. As in the United States, aerosol
propellants constitute the primary use of fluorocarbons. Refrigerants are
second in terms of total fluorocarbon consumption, while plastic foam blowing
is third, and solvents and plastics are fourth and fifth most important re-
spectively.
II-8
-------
Table II-4. WORLD FLUOROCARBON PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION CAPACITY-1973
(thousands of .metric tons)
Region
United States
Europe
Japan
Other
Total
Fluorocarbon type
F-ll and F-12
Other
Estimated
capacity.
542
500
100
80
1,222
1,050
172
Estimated
production
475
445
90
70
1,080
930
150
Percent
of total
44
41
8
7
100
8.6'
14
Sources: chgaical. Marketing Reporter^ European Chemical News, Japan Chemical
Week, private communication with industry, and Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
estimates.
II-9
-------
Table II-5. WORLD FLUOROCARBON CONSUMPTION BY END USE-1973
(units as indicated below)
End use
Aerosol propellants
Refrigerants
Foam blowing agents
Plastics and resins
Solvents
Other
Total
Amount
Thousand metric
tons
595
315
75
30
45
20
1080
Millions of
pounds
1310
695
165
65
100
45
2380
Percent
55
29
7
3
4
2
100
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on private communication
with industry.
11-10
-------
Propellant applications are somewhat more important outside of the
U.S., bringing the world average use in this category to 55 percent of the
total. Refrigerant and foam applications are equally important in the U.S.
and the rest of the world, while solvent and polymer use are slightly less
important outside of the United States. In general, the U.S. accounts for
roughly half .of fluorocarbon demand in each use category.
11-11
-------
C. CHLOROCARBON PRODUCTION AND USE
1. United States
a. Production - Current and historical production data for ten commercially
important chlorocarbons have been collected for this study. These data are
presented in Table II-6. Growth in production for some of these compounds
has leveled off or dropped in the past few years. For example, trichloro-
ethylene production reached 611 million pounds in 1970 but was only 434
million pounds in 1974—a drop of nearly 30. percent in 4 years. Ethyl chloride
production increased by 25 percent between 1960 and 1965; but since the early
1960's fluctuation, rather than growth in production, has been the rule. Two
rapidly growing chlorocarbons have been ethylene dichloride (EDC) and vinyl
chloride monomer (VCM) for which present production levels are approximately six
times as great as in I960. This represents a growth of approximately 14
percent per annum during this period. Methyl chloride and methylene chloride
have grown steadily throughout the last fifteen years to production levels
more than five times greater than in 1960. This is equivalent to a growth
rate of more than 12 percent per annum. Perchloroethylene and chloroform
have exhibited steady but slower growth rates of approximately 10 percent
annually between 1960 and 1974. Carbon tetrachloride production grew steadily
through 1970 and has recently remained at a level close to 1 billion pounds per
year. Figures for the production of methyl chloroform (1,1,1-trichloroethane)
were not published until 1966, at which point 243 million pounds were pro-
duced. In the eight years since 1966 production has more than doubled to
590 million pounds in 1974.
11-12
-------
Table II-6. UNITED STATES CHLOROCARBON PRODUCTION DATA
(millions of pounds)
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Carbon
Tetrachloride
372
384
• 484
519 •
536
: 594
648
714
763 :
883
1011 ,
•1009
997
1047
= 1014
v".
Chloro-
form
76
77
98
105
119
153
179
-191
181
216
' 240
231
235
'253
301
Ethyl
Chloride
.545
497
537
592
666
686
677
618
573
679
678
620
576
660
660
'
•j
Ethylene
Dichloride
1267
1368
1774
1793
2199
2456
3617
3971
4799
6037
746Q
7558
7809
9293
7721
Methyl
Chloride
84
105
108
114
134
188
237
276
305
403
423
437
454
544
458
Actual production of EDC is estimated to be from 1 to 15 percent greater
than the reported figure.
Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission, Chemical Economics Handbook,
and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
11-13
-------
Table II-6. (continued). UNITED STATES CHLOROCARBON PRODUCTION DATA
(millions of pounds)
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Methyl
Chloroform
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
243
NA
299
324
366
375
441
548
590
Methylene
Chloride
113
116
144
148
180
211
267
262
303
366
402
401
471
520
591
Perchloro-
ethylene
209
225
320
325
366
429
463
533
636
635
707
705
734
706
731
Trichloro-
ethylene
353
309
356
368
370
435
480
490
519
597
611
515
427
452
434
Vinyl
Chloride
1037
1044
1312
1435
1615
2000
2500
2424
2969
3736
4040
4336
5089
5351
5700
NA = Not available or negligible.
Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission, Chemical Economics Handbook,
and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
11-14
-------
Relatively limited-foreign trade data are available for the chloro-
carbons (see Table II-7.). Where published, imports are small and exports
vary (1974) from 4 percent of production for chloroform and perchloroethylene,
to 18 percent for methylene chloride. In 1974, net exports for the 6 com-
pounds for which data are available amounted to approximately 1 billion
' \ '- '
pounds, with an estimated favorable trade contribution in excess of $100
millionl
11-15
-------
Table II-7. UNITED STATES TRADE IN SELECTED*CHLOROCARBONS
(millions of pounds )
Chlorocarbon
Chloroform
Imports
Exports
Ethylene dichloride
Imports
Exports
Methylene chloride
Imports
Exports
Perchloroethylene
Imports
Exports
Trichloroethylene
Imports
Exports
Vinyl chloride monomer
Imports
Exports
1974
NA
11
NA
401
12
106
22
29
2
45
NA
412
1973
NA
NA
NA
368
42
114
45
80
47
39
NA
421
1972
NA
NA
NA
376
11
104
27
107
61
42
NA
622
1971
NA
NA
NA
347
8
87
44
NA
9
52
NA
620
NA = Not available or negligible.
3.
Trade data are not available for the four chlorocarbons not shown.
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission.
11-16
-------
b. End Use - Estimated U.S. end-use patterns for the ten chlorocarbons
a
studied are presented below.
Carbon Tetrachloride - Carbon tetrachloride (CTC) is used mainly for the
production of fluorocarbons. This use accounted for 95 percent of consump-
tion in J.973. In 1968, fluorocarbon production consumed 88 percent of
United States carbon tetrachloride supplies. The remaining production is
believed to be mainly for export (figures are not available), grain fuiaigant
and.miscellaneous solvent applications (see Table II-8). Of the CTC con-
sumed in the U.S., nearly all goes to the production of F-ll and F-12.
.... • . .';.••" »'•>•' • ' . ••
• Table II-8; CARBON TETRACHLORIDE END-USE PATTERN
(percent) .
End Use (1973 production 1047 million Ib)
Fluorocarbon 12 production
Fluorocarbon 11 production
Other (including export and solvent )
Total . .
1968
57
31
12
100
1973
60
35
5
100
Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
Chloroform - Chloroform in the United States is used almost totally as
an intermediate in the production of flubrocarbon 22. Roughly half is used
to produce F-22 gas, while approximately 40 percent is used for manufacture
of fluorocarbon plastics. The third end-use category includes exports, and
medical and pharmaceutical solvent applications, (see Table II-9.).
a. For a graphic representation of chlorocarbon uses see Figure VI-I.
11-17
-------
Table II-9. CHLOROFORM END-USE PATTERN
(percent)
End Use (1973 production 253 million Ib)
Fluorocarbon 22 (gas) production
Fluorocarbon 22 (for plastic) production
Other (including export and solvent)
Total
1968
60
30
10
100
1973
52
41
7
100
Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
\
Ethyl Chloride - Most of the ethyl chloride produced in 1973 in the
U.S. was used in the manufacture of tetraethyl lead, an antiknock compound
for gasoline (see Table 11-10). Miscellaneous uses include production of
certain plastics, dyes, and Pharmaceuticals, and use as a solvent. The
end-use pattern has changed very little in the past five years. Exports
are not reported separately, but are believed to be small.
Table 11-10. ETHYL CHLORIDE END-USE PATTERN
(percent)
End Use (1973 production 660 million Ib)
Tetraethyl lead production
Other (including export and solvent)
Total
1968
88
12
100
1973
85
15
100
Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
11-18
-------
'-Ethyierie Dichloride '-' More than three-quarters of ethylene dichloride
consumption in 1973 was for the manufacture of vinyl chloride monomer, a
t '.'•'-'
raw material-for polyvinyl chloride plastic. Other applications include use
as a lead scavenger in gasoline additives, and as a raw material for the
production of' trichloroethylene, perchloroethylene, methyl chloroform,
ethyiamines and viriylidene chloride (see Table 11-11). Exports accounted
for about 5percent of ethylene dichloride consumption in 1973.
Table 11-11. ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE END-USE PATTERN
: (percent)
End Use (1973 prod. 9293 million Ib)
Vinyl chloride production
Lead scavenger ,
Trichloroethylene production
Perchloroethylene production
Methyl chloroform production
Ethylamine production
Vinyl id ene chloride production
0 ther ( inc luding expor t )
Total
1968
75
4
3
3
2
3
2
8
100
1973
78
3
3
3
2
2
2
8
100
Sources: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur Pi Little, Inc., estimates.
11-19
-------
Methyl Chloride - Methyl chloride la used chiefly as an intermediate
in the production of silicones and tetramethyl lead (see Table H-rl2).
Its use in producing silicones has fallen since 1968 when 60 percent of raethvl
chloride went to this application. Methyl chloride for production of
tetramethyl lead has grown rapidly ir> the same 5 year period, hur. this
application, as with tetraethyl lead, is threatened by the shift to lead-
free gasoline. Miscellaneous uses include the manufacture of butyl rubber,
methyl cellulose, herbicides and quaternary amines.
Table 11-12. METHYL CHLORIDE END-USE PATTERN
(percent)
End Use (1973 prod. 544 million Ib)
Silicone production
Tetramethyl lead production
Butyl rubber production
Methyl cellulose production
Herbicide production
Quaternary amine production
Other (including export)
Total
1968
60
18
12
6
1
1
2
100
1973
43
38
4
3
2
3
7
100
Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
H-20
-------
Methyl Chloroform (1,1,1-Trichloroethane) - Metal cleaning is the largest
application for methyl chloroform, consuming approximately 70 percent of
U.S.. production in 1973 (see?Table 11-13). This chemical is employed in both
cold metal cleaning and vapor degreasing. Like perchloroethylene, methyl
chloroform has replaced trichloroethylene for vapor degreasing in areas where
the latter has been restricted because of its link to photochemical smog
•formation. Although exports are not reported separately, trade publications
have indicated that exports may be as high as 14 percent of production in
the U.S. at present. In 1971 the use of methyl chloroform in the production
of vinylidene chloride began; in 1973 this application accounted for
8 percent of U.S. production.
Table 11-13. METHYL CHLOROFORM END-USE PATTERN
' (percent)
End Use (1973 production 548 million Ib)
Cleaning solvent (cold cleaning & vapor degreasing)
Exports
Vinylidene chloride productidn
Other (aerosol^ solvent for adhesives etc.J
Total •?
1968
80
13
-
7
100
1973
70
14
8
8
100
Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
11-21
-------
Methylene Chloride - Methylene chloride is used ir> many applications
as a solvent (see Table II -14.). Virtually none is used as a chemical
intermediate. The single most important application of methylene chloride
is in paint removal, which accounted for 40 percent of consumption in
1973. Exports, which were first published in 1970, represent 20 percent
of consumption. Other applications are as an aerosol product vapor pressure
depressant, in solvent degreasing, plastics processing, quick-drying coatings,
pharmaceutical and food extraction, and as a liquid component of fire
extinguishers.
Table 11-14. METHYLENE CHLORIDE END-USE PATTERN
(percent)
End Use (1973 production 520 million lb}
Paint remover
Solvent degreasing
Aerosol sprays (solvent, vapor depressant)
Plastics processing
Other (coatings, extraction solvent)
Export
Total
1968
25
20
10
12
33
-
100
1973
40
10
8
6
16
20
100
Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
11-22
-------
Berchloroethylene - The largest use of perchloroethylene is in dry
cleaning and textile processingj accounting for 65 percent of production
in ,1973 (see Table IT - 15). This use has declined since 1968 due to the
trend tpward .wash-and-wear clothing. Perchloroethylene is also used in
industrial- metal cleaning operations—both cold cleaning and vapor degreasing.
It has largely replaced'trichlorbethylene for vapor degreasing in areas
where air pollution regulations haves restricted use of the latter. Approximately
8 percent of perch^orqethylene production.,is used as a chemical intermediate
in the production of fluorocarbons. Exports rose to about 10 percent of
consumption in 1973. ~
Table 11*15. PERCHLOROETHYLENE END-USE PATTERN
..(percent) , •
End Use (1973 production 706 million Ib)
, , • I c •
Dry cleaning solvent & textile processing
Chemical , intermediate (fluorocarbons 113, 114)
Vapor degreasing
Other (including export)
Total
1968
85
": . • "• 8 ' •
2
5
100
1973
65
8
12
15
100
Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
11-23
-------
Trichloroethylene - Trichloroethylene is largely consumed in metal
cleaning (see Table II -16,). This use has decreased from 94 percent in
1968 to 86 percent in 1973 due mainly to air pollution restrictions. This
application includes both vapor degreasing and cold metal cleaning, of which
vapor degreasing represents by far the largest share. Exports represented
approximately 9 percent of production of 1973. Use of trichloroethylene
as an extraction solvent has been a minor application.
Table II -16. TRICHLOROETHYLENE END-USE PATTERN
(percent)
End Use (1973 production 452 million Ib)
Metal cleaning (cold cleaning & vapor degreasing)
Extraction solvent
Other (including export)
Total
1968
94
3
3
100
1973
86
3
11
100
Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
11-24
-------
Vinyl Chloride - The dominant use of vinyl chloride is in the
production of polyvinyl chloride (see Table II -17). Polyvinyl chloride
(PVC) is an important plastic with applications in the fields of construction,
communications, transportation and packaging. In addition to its key use
as an intermediate for the production of PVC, vinyl chloride is also used
as an intermediate in the manufacture of methyl chloroform. Exports accounted
for 8 jpercent of production in 1973.
Table II- 17. VINYL CHLORIDE END-USE PATTERN
(percent)
End Use (1973 prod. 5351 million ib)
Polyvinyi chloride (PVC) production
Export
Other
Total
1968
85
12
3
100
1973
89
8
3
100
Source: Chemical Marketing Reporter, and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
11-25
-------
2. World
a. Production - United States production levels represent from 30 to 60
percent of world-wide production for the ten chlorocarbons studied (see
Table II -18). Production growth rates have been somewhat greater in the
rest of the world than in the United States. For example, it is
estimated that chlorocarbpn production (mostly of ethylene dichloride) in
Japan more than doubled between 1968 and 1973.
Approximately 50 percent of world carbon tetrachloride was produced
outside of the United States in 1973. Of that, 40 percent was produced
in Europe and 10 percent in Japan and elsewhere. The average growth rate
outside of 'the United States from 1968-73 was approximately 11 percent
per annum and within the United States approximately 6 percent per annum
during this five year period.
Approximately half of world chloroform production in 1973 was outside
the United States, mainly in Europe. By way of contrast, in 1968 the
United States produced approximately three-quarters of the world's chloro-
form.
Little information was available for world-wide production of ethyl
chloride. U.S. production probably accounts for approximately half of the
world total, with estimated production in Europe at about one-third of the
global figure.
The United States accounted for less than half of the world's ethylene
dichloride production in 1973. European production is somewhat greater than
that of the United States, and Japan represents more than half of either
11-26
-------
Table 11-18. ESTIMATED WORLD CHLOROCARBON PRODUCTION - 1973
(units as indicated below)
Chlorocarbon
Carbon tetrachloride
Chloroform
Ethyl chloride
.Ethylene dichloride
Methyl chloride
Methyl chloroform .
Methylene chloride
Pechloroethylene
Trichloroethylene
Vinyl chloride
Regional percent of totala
United States Europe Other
50
50
55
35
60
60
55
45
30
35
40
40
30
40
35
30
30
45
55
40
10
10
15
25
5
10
15
10
15
25
World total
Thousand Millions
metric tons Of pounds
950
^225
550
12,000
400
420
425
750
700
7,100
2,100
500
1,200
V
26,450
875
925
925
1,650
1,550
15,650
aRounded to nearest 5 percent.
Source: U.S. and foreign trade publications and Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
estimates.
11-27
-------
Europe or the United States. Total world production in 1973 was approxi-
mately 12 million metric tons.
Almost all methyl chloride is produced in Europe and the United States.
The United States accounted for approximately 60 percent of world production
in 1973 and Europe about 35 percent. The world production figure was about
400 thousand metric tons.
Methyl chloroform, or 1,1,1 - trichloroethane, follows a similar
pattern to the other chlorocarbons in terms of world production allotment
among regions. Of the 375 thousand metric tons produced in 1973, the U.S.
accounted for 60 percent, Europe for 30 percent and the rest of the world
for 10 percent.
More than half of the world's methylene chloride is produced in the United
States. Europe produced 30 percent in 1973 and Japan 15 percent. Outside
of the United States methylene chloride production rose 42 percent between
1968-1973; within the United States it grew 72 percent or nearly 12 percent
per year.
More than half (55 percent) of world perchloroethylene production is
outside the United States, mainly in Europe. Japan accounts for 10 percent
of world production. The world growth rate between 1968-1973 was 36 percent,
or 6 percent per year.
."Two-thirds of the world's trichloro«thylene is produced outside of the
United States. Europe accounts for just over half the world production of
trichloroethylene. Japan produces 15 percent of the world supply. The
growth rate of trichloroethylene has been very low: from 1968 to 1973
II-28
-------
production rose only 9 percent, or 2 percent per year. U.S. production
fell in this time period due, in part, to air pollution restrictions.
As with ethylene dichloride, world vinyl chloride production is
slightly greater in Europe than in the United States. Japan produces
approximately 25 percent of the world total, which was approximately
seven million metric tons in 1973.
b. End Use - Only limited information is available on world application
patterns outside of the United States. However, the available data for
both Europe and Japan indicate that end-use patterns for these compounds are
very similar throughout the world. A notable exception is the use of tri-
chloroethylene for metal cleaning in Europe. This application has become
relatively less important in the United States because of photochemical
smog problems.
11-29
-------
III. HALOCARBON EMISSIONS TO THE ATMOSPHERE
A. INTRODUCTION
Just as the United States accounts for approximately half of world
production for the compounds of interest, so too does the United States
account for this fraction of world halocarbon emissions. This chapter
examines the various emission sources to determine the magnitude of emis-
sions in each application and thus lays the groundwork for Chapter IV.
»' '
The predominant chlorofluorocarbon emission source, both in the United
States and worldwide, is the chlorofluorocarbon-filled aerosol can. These
chemicals are found in only about half of all aerosol products, with
greatest use being in personal products such as anti-perspirants and hair
sprays. The second greatest source of chlorofluorocarbon emissions is
automotive and commercial air-conditioning equipment. The combined atmos-
pheric emissions from all propellant and refrigerant applications accounted
for almost 90 percent of all U.S. chlorofluorocarbon emissions (about 725
million pounds) in 1973.
Among the chlorocarbons, the greatest atmospheric emissions are from
those chemicals commonly used as solvents. Methyl chloroform, methylene
chloride, perchloroethylene and trichloroethylene all had 1973 emission
levels in the U.S. estimated at greater than 400 million pounds.
III-l
-------
B. DISCUSSION OF EMISSION ESTIMATES AND ENVIRONMENTAL FATE
1. Atmospheric Emissions from Chemical Manufacturing Processes,
Transportation and Storage
Emissions of a particular hydrocarbon (or halocarbon) from chemical
manufacturing can ge associated with three different processes:
• The process(es) used in the initial manufacture of the chemical,
• The process(es) used to manufacture other chemicals from the
particular chemical; i.e., its use as an intermediate, and
• Processes in which the particular chemical may be produced as
a by-product.
Emissions related to the third category above, i.e., by-product
formation, are not being considered in this study even though the amounts
a
may be significant. Emissions of a particular chemical related to the
first and second categories are generally on the same order of magnitude,
on the basis of pounds lost per pound of product produced.
Two recent surveys, for the EPA, of hydrocarbon emissions from chemical
manufacturing processes indicate that, on the average, total hydrocarbon
emissions are between 0.01 and 0.02 pounds per pound of product produced.
Details are given in Tables III-l and III-2.
The emission factors given in Tables III-l and III-2 allow the estimation
of an average emission factor to be used for the specific chemicals in this
study. It should be noted that, while the type of reactions reported on in
Table III-2 are more pertinent to this study (because they deal only with
a. This emission category is relatively unimportant for those chemicals
which have large use-related emissions, such as the chlorinated solvents.
III-2
-------
Table III-l.
HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM CHEMICAL MANUFACTURE
Reaction
Total
hydrocarbon
emissions
1973
(million Ibs/yr)
Production 1973
million Ibs/yr)
Hydrocarbon
loss rate
(Ibs/lbs product
produced)
I) 40 Industrially
important organic
chemical reactions
1227.6
95,400
.0129
II) SPECIFIC EXAMPLES;
1.
Vinyl chloride
production
2. Ethylene dichlo-
ride (EDC)
production:
a. via oxychlo-
rination
b. via direct
chlorination
17.6
5,300
.0033
95. l
29. 0
.0227
.0057
^Excludes methane; includes H.S and all volatile organics.
Loss of EDC itself from this manufacturing process is estimated to be
81.4 million Ibs/yr resulting in a loss rate of .0195 Ib/lb of EDC produced.
°Loss of EDC itself from this manufacturing process is estimated to be
16.8 million Ibs/yr or a loss rate of .0033 Ibs/lb of EDC produced.
Actual production in 1973 estimated to be 90 percent of production capacity
(ADL estimate).
Sources;
1. "Survey Reports on Atmospheric Emissions from the Petrochemical Industry"
(in 4 volumes); U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1974. Report
numbers: EPA-450/3-73-005a-d.
2. "Engineering and Cost Study of Air Pollution Control for the Petro-
chemical Industry, Volume 3: Ethylene Dichloride Manufacture by
Oxychlorination," U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, November 1974.
Report Number: EPA-450/3-73-006c.
III-3
-------
Table III-2. HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS3 FROM CHEMICAL MANUFACTURING
PROCESSES INVOLVING CHLORINATION
I) From 25 Industrially
Important dhlorination
reactions
II) From 16 industrially
important chlorination
reactions for the manu-
facture of .ethylene
dichloride, carbon tetra-
chloride, ethyl chloride,
methyl chloroform, chloro-
form, methyl chloride,
methylene chloride, tetra-
chloroethylene, and tri-
chloroethylene.
Estimated total
hydrocarbon
emissions-1970:
aver, per process
(Ibs/lb of product)
.016 + .009
.019 + .009
Estimated loss
of manufactured
chemical-1970:
aver, per process
(Ibs/lb of product)
.008 + .008
The estimated emissions given were based on little or no real data on actual
emissions; the error limits given in the table are average deviations.
DThe reactions here included in the 25 reactions of I.
Source:
"Air Pollution from Chlorination Process;" Report prepared for Office of Air
Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, March, 1972, by Process
Research, Inc., Industrial Planning and Research, Cincinnati, Ohio under
Task Order Number 23 of Contract Number CPA 70-1.
III-4
-------
chlorinated hydrocarbon production) than those reported on in Table III-l,
the accuracy of the emissions estimates in Table III-l are considered to
be much more reliable. Data for the emissions estimates in Table III-l
were obtained from detailed questionnaires mailed out to the manufacturing
companies while essentially no real emissions data were used for the re-
sults shown in Table III-2.
In light of these data, it seems reasonable to state that average
total hydrocarbon emissions from a manufacturing process is 0.013 pounds
per pound of product produced, and that a reasonable average for losses of
a
the particular compounds of interest is 0.006 pounds per pound of product
produced.
A more precise estimate for losses of EDC from EDC manufacturing
processes is possible from the information given in Table III-l. Assuming
that, in 1973, 45% of EDC production was via oxychlorination and 55% via
direct chlorination, a weighted EDC loss rate of 0.013 pounds per pound
of product is obtained.
Since it is desirable to have one loss estimate that covers both (1)
the manufacturing process, and (2) the transportation and storage of the
particular chemical, a transportation and storage loss must be estimated.
For those chemicals used only as intermediates, transportation will be in
bulk via rail, truck, ship, or barge (or via pipeline for intraplant
transfers). These modes of transport should entail relatively small losses,
estimated to be on the order of about 0.001 pounds per pound of product.
a. These average emission rates are believed to be conservative estimates.
III-5
-------
Storage will also be in bulk and should not add measurably to this loss
factor.
This estimated transportation and storage loss factor, when added to
the manufacturing process loss factor estimated above for a particular
chemical, results in an estimated loss factor covering both manufacture,
transportation and storage of 0.007 pounds per pound of product. The total
loss rate of EDC should be kept at 0.013 pounds per pound of product since
most EDC is consumed at the site of its manufacture for vinyl chloride
production.
2. Environmental Fate of Fluorocarbons and Chlorocarbons
This section briefly describes the anticipated environmental fate of
the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons under study in an attempt to predict
which of them should warrant the most concern.
Most all of the compounds of interest have low boiling points (there-
fore, high vapor pressures), and low solubility in water (see Table III-3).
These two facts help insure that almost all losses of these chemicals
(i.e., from production, transportation, storage, use, and disposal) find
their way, eventually, into the atmosphere. It is estimated that approxi-
mately 1 percent of the losses of these chemicals fails to reach the atmos-
phere; larger amounts of some of these chemicals are initially discharged
in waste waters, and some of this dissolved portion will be "lost" by
hydrolysis or absorption, but the major portion will be returned to the
atmosphere in short order. For example, the mean residence time of per-
«a
chloroethylene in the ocean has been estimated as 1 month.
a. Assessing Potential Ocean Pollutants, National Academy of Sciences,
Washington, D.C., 1975.
III-6
-------
Table III-3. SOME PROPERTIES OF FLUOROCARBONS AND CHLOROCARBONS
Chemical
F-ll
F-12
F-13
F-14
F-21
F-22
F-113
F-114
F-115
F-116
F-13B1 ;
F-114B2
F-C-318
F-502 (azeotrope) j
/
Carbon tetrachloride
Chloroform
Ethyl chloride
Ethylene dichloride
Methyl chloride
Methyl chloroform
Methylene chloride
Perchlorethylene
Trie hlo roe thyl ene
Vinyl chloride.
Formula
CC13F
CC12F2
CC1F3
CF4
CHC12F
CHC1F
CC12F-CC1F2
CC1F2-CC1F2
CC1F2-CF3
CF3-CF3
CBrF3
CBrF2~CBrF2
CF,CF_CF0CF9
1 2. 2 2| 2
CHC1F2 (48.8%)
CC1F2CF3 (51.2%)
cci4
CHC13
CH3CH2C1
CH2C1CH2C1
CH3C1
CC13CH3
CH2C12
CC1 =CC1_
2 z
CHC1=CC12
CH2CHC1
BP(°C)
23.82
-29.79
-80.00
-128.00
8.9
-40.75
47.57
3.77
-39.10
-78.20
-57.75
47.3
5.8
1 -45.42
V
76.80
61.26
12.20
83.50
- -24.22 .
74.10
40.10
121.02
87.00
-13.90
Solubility (wt percent)
in water (25 °C )
0.011
0.028
0.009
0.0015
0.95
0.13
0.017
0.013
0.006
N/A
0.0095 (70°F)
N/A
N/A
N/A
0.08 (20°C)
1.0 (15°C)
0.574g/100ml (20°)
0.869g/100ml (20°)
400cm3/100ml
slightly soluble
2g/100ml (20°C)
slightly soluble
0.1
slightly soluble
Sources: DuPont Technical Literature, and Handbook of Chemistry and Physics,
44th Edition, CR Publishing Co., Cleveland, Ohio.
III-7
-------
The next most important aspect of the chemicals being investigated is
their degree of chemical stability and inertness. The carbon-fluorine
bond is a strong one in comparison with carbon bonds to chlorine, bromine,
hydrogen or a second carbon atom. Additionally, increasing the number of
fluorine atoms in the molecule tends to increase the carbon-chlorine bond
strength on the molecule. The resistance to degradation by hydrolysis and
heat is said to parallel bond energies and thus the fluorocarbons are con-
sidered to be quite stable and inert. Within the group of fluorocarbons,
the perfluoro compounds (e.g., CF,, C.F,) would be expected to be the most
stable, followed by the chlorofluorocarbons (e.g., CC1-F, CC12F2) and,
finally, the chlorofluorohydrocarbOns (e.g., CHC1F2). Below the fluoro-
carbons in stability and inertness would be the chlorocarbons (chlorohydro-
carbons)—with one or more exceptions. The one fairly certain exception
is carbon tetrachloride which is more akin to the fluorocarbons in its
relative stability and inertness.
The general rule that seems to follow from the above is that the most
stable and inert compounds are those that are the most highly halogenated
(i.e., have the least number of hydrogen atoms), and that, of all the
halogenated compounds, the fluorinated compounds are the most stable. The
presence of a double bond (e.g., in CC12=CC12 and CHC1=CC12), a hydrogen
atom, or a small ring structure (e.g*, in F-C318) tends to decrease the
stability of the compound. A summary listing of the chemicals being studied
is given in Table III-4, broken down into three groups based on their ex-
pected degree of stability. This degree of stability, along with estimated
III-8
-------
Table III-4. RELATIVE STABILITY OF THE HALOCARBONSa
Group I; Relatively high stability (over ten-year atmospheric residence)
*F-115
*F-116
*F-13B1
*F-114B2
*F-C318
carbon tetrachloride
Group II; Intermediate stability (under ten-year atmospheric residence)
methyl chloroform
Group III; Relatively low stability (under one-year atmospheric residence]1
chloroform ethylene dichloride
ethyl chloride perchloroethylene
, methyl chloride methylene chloride
vinyl chloride trichloroethylene
a. The five halocarbons that were emphasized in the analysis of likely
economic'impact are underlined. These chemicals are of relatively
high stability and are produced in large quantities relative to the
other halocarbons in Groups I and II. F-502 contains F-22 and F-115
and is not shown;separately. The compounds marked with an asterisk
(*) are produced only in relatively small quantities.
Source; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates, based on private communication
with EPA, and Wofsy, et al., Science. 187, 535 (Feb. 14, 1975).
III-9
-------
levels of atmospheric emission, determined the emphasis of our analysis in
the following chapters of the report.
It is generally agreed that any chemical with a high vapor pressure at
ambient temperatures, a low solubility in water, and high chemical stability
and inertness will, in large measure, accumulate and persist in the atmos-
phere. The main uncertainties today are over the degree of accumulation,
the duration of the persistence, and the nature of possible reactions with
ozone and other components of the atmosphere. Additionally, the time re-
quired for these chemicals to reach the stratosphere (where the ozone is
found) is an important parameter.
With respect to accumulation of fluorocarbons, specifically of F-ll,
«
it has been contended that measured atmospheric concentration levels, when
summed together on a global scale, equal the net world production of F-ll
up to the time the measurements were made. The variability of the measure-
ments on which this estimate is based is large enough, however, to cast
some doubt on the implication that there is no loss of fluorocarbons (due
to degradation or chemical reaction) in the lower atmosphere.
It is also contended that fluorocarbons have a residence time in the
atmosphere of between 40 and 150 years. Carbon tetrachloride should be
classed with the fluorocarbons in this respect as its lifetime has been
estimated to be 30 to 50 years. Incorporated within these residence times
a. Hearings before the Subcommittee on Public Health and Environment of
the Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce, U.S. House of Repre-
sentatives, 93rd Congress, 2nd Session, on H.R. 17577 and H.R. 17545,
December 11 and 12, 1974 (Serial No. 93-110), p. 428.
111-10
-------
is a delay period of several months required for these chemicals to go
from ground level up to the stratosphere (roughly ranging from 50,000 to
165,000 feet). It is only within the stratosphere, more specifically
around 50,000 to 115,000 feet, that some scientists believe fluorocarbon-
ozone reactions are likely to occur, with a net loss of ozone.
In marked contrast to the fluorocarbons (including carbon tetrachloride)
the other chlorocarbons under study in this work are not expected to have
such long lifetimes in the atmosphere. Fluorocarbons 21, 22, and others
containing hydrogen atoms may also fall into this group because all of
these chemicals contain a bond that is relatively susceptible to attack by
hydroxyl (OH) radicals in the lower atmosphere. These bonds are the carbon-
carbon double bonds and the carbon-hydrogen bonds.
C. FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS TO THE ATMOSPHERE
1. United States
a. Production, Transport and Storage - Emissions of fluorocarbons to the
atmosphere in production, transport and storage are small (ca. 1 percent of
total emissions). These chemicals have a high unit value relative to many
other industrial organic chemicals produced in commercial quantities and
•-;••'-- ' - . - •
there is, therefore, a strong economic incentive for close control of loss
a. EPA estimate.
b. The reaction mechanism proposed involves first the production of
halogen atoms following absorption, of ultraviolet light by the halo-
carbon. : The halogen atom is then involved in a catalytic reaction with
ozone, the net result of which is the conversion of ozone (0_) to
oxygen (00).
III-ll
-------
during production, transport and storage. Furthermore, transport and
storage are usually in bulk quantities and in sealed metal containers.
Small losses may occur in transfer and flushing operations, but these are
negligible compared to losses in end use and disposal (see Table III-5).
b. End Use and Disposal - As indicated in Table III-5, the major U.S.
atmospheric emissions of fluorocarbons are from propellant and refrigerant
applications. Propellant losses account for an estimated 62 percent of
total emissions, while refrigerant emissions comprise an additional 26
percent of the total. Emissions from foam blowing and solvent applications
are estimated to be 5 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Emissions from
manufacture of fluorocarbon resins are negligible.
Also shown in Table III-5 are U.S. fluorocarbon emissions by fluoro-
carbon type. Fluorocarbon 12 accounted for approximately 390 million
pounds (48 percent) of the total estimated emissions of 824 million pounds
in 1973. Fluorocarbon 11 represented 34 percent of total emissions, while
F-22 and other fluorocarbons accounted for 7 and 11 percent of 1973 losses,
respectively. The bases for these emission estimates are detailed in
Chapter IV.
2. World
a. Production, Transport and Storage - As is the case with this category
of emissions in the United States, world atmospheric emissions of fluoro-
carbons from production, transport and storage are judged to be on the
order of 1 percent of total production, or 11 thousand metric tons in 1973.
(World production in 1973 was estimated in Table II-4 to have been approx-
imately 1.1 million metric tons.)
111-12
-------
Fluorocarbon
Table III-5. ESTIMATED U.S. FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS-1973
(millions of pounds)
Production transport
and storage emissions
Annual emissions from use and disposal
Production Emissions Propellant
(million Ibs)(1 percent)
Blowing Plastic
Percent
Refrigerant Solvent agent resin Total of total
F-ll
F-12
F-22
F-113
F-114
Other
b
Total
Percent of
total
334
489
136
59
26
12
1056
—
3.3
4.9
1.4
0.6
0.3
0.1
10.6
1.3
236.9
249.4
sm.
-
24.7
sm.
511.0
62.0
11
130.5
59.5
11
212.0
25.7
sm.
-
-
50
-
_
50
6.1
29.3
7.5
-
3.7
40.5
4.9
-
-
sm.
sm.
sm.
—
sm.
—
280.5
392.3
60.9
90.4
824.1
—
34.0
47.6
7.4
}
> 11.0
)
—
100.0
M
M
'sm.' = less than 5 million pounds; '-' = none or negligible.
•j
. Emissions from production transport and storage are judged to be approximately 1 percent of total production.
Does not include 'sm.'
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates, based on industry contacts.
-------
b. End-Use and Disposal - The world pattern for atmospheric emissions of
the fluorocarbons parallels that of the United States in terms of emission
source. The greatest emissions are from propellant and refrigerant appli-
cations; other emission sources are small by comparison.
Estimated world emissions of fluorocarbons as aerosol propellant are
presented in Table III-6. Total 1973 emissions are estimated to be 488
thousand metric tons (1,076 million pounds). The U.S. accounted for nearly
half of these emissions and Europe accounted for an additional third of the
total.
Estimated world emissions of fluorocarbon refrigerants are presented in
Table III-7. Total 1973 emissions are estimated at 207 thousand metric
tons (457 million pounds). As in the case of propellants, the U.S. accounted
for the largest part (47 percent) of the emissions, and Europe (39 percent)
was the second largest regional emission source.
Finally, estimated 1973 world emissions of fluorocarbons from use as
solvents and foam blowing agents are 90 thousand metric tons (198 million
pounds), with the U.S. accounting for 46 percent of total emissions in this
category.
Total 1973 world fluorocarbon emissions are therefore believed to be on
the order of 785 thousand metric tons:
• propellant emissions - 488 thousand metric tons
• refrigerant emissions - 207 thousand metric tons
• other use emissions - 90 thousand metric tons
Total 785 thousand metric tons.
111-14
-------
Table III-6. WORLD EMISSIONS OF FLUOROGARBON AEROSOL PROPELIANTS - 1973
(units as indicated below)
Region
United States
Europe
Other
Total
Estimated emissions
(thousand
metric tons)
232
170
86
488
(millions
of pounds)
511
375
190
1076
Percent
of total
48
34
18
100
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
Table III-7. WORLD EMISSIONS OF FLUOROCARBON REFRIGERANTS - 1973
(units as indicated below)
Region
United States
Europe
Other
Total
Estimated emissions
(thousand
metric tons)
96
81
30
207
(millions
of pounds)
212
179
66
457
Percent
of total
47
39
14
100
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
111-15
-------
D. CHLOROCARBON EMISSIONS TO THE ATMOSPHERE
1. United States
a. Production, Transport and Storage - Emissions to the atmosphere of
chlorocarbons during manufacture, transport and storage are judged to be
on the order of 0.5 to 1.5 percent of production. For the chemicals used
only as intermediates, losses during transport and storage are minimal
since they are usually transported in bulk form over short distances and
are stored for relatively short periods in closed vessels. Ethylene di-
chloride emissions are far greater than any of the other chlorocarbons
simply because of the massive amount manufactured. Trichloroethylene,
perchloroethylene, methyl chloroform and methylene chloride are believed
to have emission rates of one percent during production, transport and
storage. Ethyl chloride and methyl chloride are judged to have emission
rates of 0.7 percent each, while carbon tetrochloride and chloroform losses
during production transport and storage are on the order of 1.5 percent of
production. These emissions, as well as those from end-use and disposal
are discussed below and are summarized in Table 111-18.
b. End-Use and Disposal - There is tremendous variation among the chloro-
carbons in emissions to the atmosphere from end-use. For those chemicals
that are used as chemical intermediates, the emissions are small. For
example, chloroform and carbon tetrachloride emissions are believed to be
no greater than one percent in the manufacture of fluorocarbons. On the
other hand, for chlorocarbons used in dry cleaning and metal cleaning, it
is likely that nearly all of the product going to these applications even-
tually is lost to the atmosphere. Emission estimates for the 10 chlorocarbons
studied are developed below.
111-16
-------
In the tables below "Percent" refers to estimated emissions from pro-
duction transport and storage (as a percent of production, P), emissions
from use as a chemical intermediate (as a .percent of consumption in this
application, C), emissions from end uses (as a percent of production, P),
and a correction for emissions not reaching the atmosphere calculated as
a percent of total emissions, E); therefore the percent column does not
total to 100.
Using the carbon tetrachloride production figure for 1973 of 1047
million pounds, approximately 1.5 percent, (15.7 million pounds) of this
chemical product is lost to the atmosphere during production, transport
and storage. Together with the losses from solvent use and use as a
chemical intermediate, an estimated 46 million pounds of carbon tetrachloride
was lost to the atmosphere in 1973 in the United States (see Table III-8).
Table III-8. ESTIMATED U.S. CARBON TETRACHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973
Emission Source
Production, transport
and storage
Chemical intermediate :
fluorocarbons 11 & 12
Other (including solvent)
Rebased to environment but not
reaching atmosphere (due to
hydrolysis or water dissolu-
tion)
Total
Percent
1.5
•1.0
2.0
-1.0
-
Basis
P
C
P
E
-
Amount
(million pounds)
15.7
9.9
20.9
-0.5
46.0
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
Q
See Section B. 2. (p. III-7) of this chapter for derivation.
See explaination of "Basis" in text, above.
111-17
-------
U.S. atmospheric emissions of chloroform in 1973 are estimated to be
on the order of 14 million pounds. The loss rate during production, trans-
port and storage is judged to be the same as for carbon tetrachloride:
1.5 percent of production. In its use as a chemical intermediate for the
production of F-22, it is estimated that a 1 percent loss rate is appropriate
for the amount of chloroform going to this application (ca. 235 million
pounds, based on Table II-9). Emissions resulting from solvent applications
are estimated at 3 percent of total production.
Table III-9. ESTIMATED U.S. CHLOROFORM EMISSIONS-1973
Emission source
Production, transport
and storage
Chemical intermediate:
fluorocarbon 22
Other (including solvent)
Released to environment but not
. reaching atmosphere (due to
hydrolysis or water dissolu-
tion)
Total
Percent
1.5
1.0
3.0
-1.0
—
Basis
P
C
P
E
— •
Amount
(million pounds)
3.8
2.4
7.6
-0.1
13.7
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
111-18
-------
In 1974, 85 percent of the ethyl chloride produced in the United
States was consumed in the manufacture of tetraethyl lead. Using an
emission rate of 0.6 percent for this process, 3.4 million pounds were lost
to the atmsophere in 1973. The emission rate for the "Other" category is
higher than this because it includes use as a solvent. From the total
potential emissions of 17.9 million pounds we have subtracted 1 percent of
the losses (0.2 million pounds) from the total to take into account the
amount that is likely to have been hydrolyzed. The total U.S. amount of
ethyl chloride lost to the atmosphere in 1973 is estimated at 17.7 million
pounds (see Table 111-10).
Table 111-10. ESTIMATED U.S. ETHYL CHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973
Emission source
Production, transport
and storage
Chemical intermediate:
tetraethyl lead
Other (including export)
Released to environment but
. not reaching atmosphere
(due to hydrolysis or water
dissolution)
Total
Percent
0.7
0.6
•1.5
-1.0
—
Basis
P
C
P
E
—
Amount
(million pounds)
4.6
3.4
9.9
-0.2
17.7
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
111-19
-------
As was developed in the previous chapter, the estimated loss rate
for ethylene dichloride (EDC) production, transport and storage is 1.3 per-
cent of production. The estimated loss rates for all of the end uses of
ethylene dichloride are small with the exception of the "Other" category
which includes uses for EDC in this category (8 percent of total EDC demand)
is the most critical determinant of EDC emissions. Total U.S. emissions of
EDC were on the order of 440 million pounds in 1973 (see Table III-ll).
Table III-ll. ESTIMATED U.S. ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973
Emission source
Production, transport
and storage
Chemical intermediate:
vinyl chloride
lead scavenger
trichloroethylene
perchloroethylene
methyl chloroform
ethylamines
vinylidene chloride
Other (including export)
Released to environment but
not reaching atmosphere
(due to hydrolysis or water
dissolution)
Total
Percent
1.3
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
40.0
-1.0
—
Basis
P
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
E
—
Amount
(million pounds)
120.8
14.5
2.8
1.7
1.7
0.9
1.1
1.1
297.4
-4.4
437.6
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
111-20
-------
Methyl chloride is used almost .exclusively as an intermediate to
produce other chemicals and thus emissions are minimal. More than 80 per-
cent of methyl chloride was consumed in the production of silicones and
tetramethyl lead in 1973. The "Other" category emission rate is higher
than that for chemical intermediates because some of these miscellaneous
uses have relatively high potential for loss of the chemical to the
atmsophere. Total-1973 U.S. emissions are estimated to have been 10.5
million pounds (see Table 111-12). . .
-Table 111-12. ESTIMATED U.S. METHYL CHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973
Emission source
Production, transport
and storage
Chemical intermediate:
silicones
tetramethyl lead
butyl rubber
methyl cellulose
herbicides
quaternary amines
Other
Released to environment but
not reaching atmosphere
(due to hydrolysis or
water dissolution)
Total
Percent
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
10.0
-1.0
—
Basis
P
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
E
—
Amount
(million pounds)
3.8
1.4
1.2
0.1'
0.1
0.1
0.1
3.8 .
-0.1
10.5
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
111-21
-------
Virtually all of the methyl chloroform used in metal degreasing
(cleaning solvent) and as a solvent for adhesives or other materials
evaporates and is thus released to the atmosphere. Atmospheric emission
from the production of methyl chloroform and from its use as an inter-
mediate to produce vinylidene chloride are small by comparison. An
estimated 428.9 million pounds of methyl chloroform was released to the
j
atmosphere in 1973 in the U.S. (see Table 111-13).
Table 111-13. ESTIMATED U.S. METHYL CHLOROFORM EMISSIONS-1973
Emission source
Production, transport
and storage
Chemical intermediate:
vinylidene chloride
End Uses:
cleaning solvent
other (including adhesive
solvent)
Released to environment but
not reaching atmosphere
(due to hydrolysis or
water dissolution)
Total
Percent
1.0
0.6
70.0
8.0
-1.0
-
Basis
P
C
P
P
E
-
Amount
(million pounds)
5.5
0.3
383.6
43.8
-4.3
428.9
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
111-22
-------
As in the case of methyl chloroform, the majority of the end uses
of methylene chloride result in loss to the atmosphere by evaporation.
The large "paint remover and other" category includes plastics processing,
* .. ' •
and these two uses account for over 75 percent of methylene chloride
emissions. The other important emission sources are use of methylene
chloride in solvent degreasing and in aerosol applications, where the
chemical acts as both vapor depressant and solvent. In all, it is estimated
that about 430 million pounds of methylene chloride went into the
atmosphere from the U.S. in 1973 (see Table 111-14).
Table 111-14.. ESTIMATED U.S. METHYLENE CHLORIDE EMISSIONS-1973
Emission source
Production, transport
and storage
End uses:
cleaning solvent
aerosols
paint remover
Released to the environment but
not reaching atmosphere (due
to hydrolysis or water
dissolution!
Total
Percent
1.0
10.0
8.0
65.0
-1.0
-
Basis
P
P
P
P
E
• -
Amount
(million pounds)
5.2
52.0
42.0
338.0
-4.4
432.8
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
111-23
-------
The major source of U.S. perchloroethylene atmospheric emissions is
the use of this chemical as a dry cleaning and textile processing solvent.
This application accounted for about 460 million pounds (77 percent) of
the estimated U.S. 1973 emissions of about 600 million pounds. Emissions
from other end uses were small by comparison, as were emissions from
production, transport and storage (see Table 111-15).
Table 111-15. ESTIMATED U.S. PERCHLOROETHYLENE EMISSIONS-1973
Emission source
Production, transport
and storage
Chemical intermediate:
fluorocarbons 113 & 114
End uses:
dry cleaning and textile
processing
cleaning solvent
other (including export)
Released to the environment
but not reaching atmosphere
(due to hydrolysis or water
dissolution)
Total
Percent
1.0
1.0
65.0
12.0
50.0
-1.0
-
Basis
P
C
P
P
C
E
-
Amount
(million pounds)
7.1
0.6
458.9
84.7
53.0
-6.0
598.3
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
111-24
-------
In its end uses as a metal cleaning and extraction solvent, it is
assumed that nearly all of the trichloroethylene going to these uses
represents emissions to the atmosphere in that year. These two applications
accounted for about 390 million pounds ,(90 percent) of the nearly 430
million pounds of trichloroethylene estimated to have been released to
the atmosphere from the U.S. in 1973. This emission level represented
about 95 percent of 1973 U.S. production of trichloroethylene (see Table 111-16),
Table 111-16. ESTIMATED U.S. TRICHLOROETHYLENE EMISSIONS-1973
Emission source
Production, transport
and storage
End uses:
cleaning' solvent
extraction solvent
Other (including export)
Released to the environment
but not reaching atmosphere
(due to hydrolysis or water
dissolution)
Total
Percent
1.0
86.0
3.0
50.0
-1.0
-
Basis
P
P
P
C
E
-
Amount
(million pounds)
4.5
388.7
13.6
24.9
-4.3
427.4
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
IH-25
-------
Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) emissions approached 200 million pounds
in 1973, or about 3.7 percent of total production of the compound (see
Table 111-17). The loss of VCM during polymerization was approximately
184 million pounds, or 93 percent of total emissions.
Table 111-17. ESTIMATED U.S. VINYL CHLORIDE MONOMER EMISSIONS-1973
Emission source
Production, transport
and storage
Chemical intermediate:
polyvinyl chloride
Released to the environment
but not reaching atmosphere
(due to hydrolysis or
water dissolution)
Total
Percent
0.3
3.9
-1.0
-
Basis
P
C
E
-
Amount
(million pounds)
14.5
184.1
-2.0
196.6
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., and EPA estimates.
111-26
-------
Table .111-18. ESTIMATED U.S. CHLOROCARBON EMISSIONS-1973
(millions of pounds)
Chlorocarbon
Carbon . .
tetrachloride
Chloroform
Ethyl chloride
Ethylene
dichloride
Methyl ; chloride
Methyl chloroform
Methylene chloride
Perchloroethylene
Trichloroethylene
Vinyl chloride
Emissions
from production
transport and storage
15.7
3.8
4.6
120.8
3.8
r 5.5
5.2
.7.1
4.5
... 14-5
Emissions
from end use
and disposal
30.8
10.0
13.3
321.2
6.8
427.7
432.0
597.2
427.2
184.1
Total
potential
emissions
46.5
13.8
17.9
442.0
10.6
433.2
437.2
604.3
431.7
198.6
Total
a
adjusted
emissions
46.0
13.7
17.7
437.6
10.5
428.9
432.8
598.3
427.4
196.6
aThe amount of chiorocarbon released to the environment but probably not
reaching the atmosphere due to hydrolysis or water dissolution has. been
subtracted in this column.
EPA estimates.
Source: Athur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
111-27
-------
2. World
a. Production, Transport and Storage - World atmospheric emissions of the
chlorocarbons from production, transport and storage are believed to be
on the same order of magnitude, percentagewise, as in the United States.
They range from about 30 percent of total emissions for carbon tetrachloride
and chloroform to approximately one percent of total emissions for methyl
chloroform and trichloroethylene. Again, it is the end-use pattern that
is the key variable in determining which of the chlorocarbons will have
relatively large (greater than 100 thousand metric ton) atmosphere emissions.
b. End-Use and Disposal - For all of the chlorocarbons, application emissions
are judged to be greater than disposal emissions. These categories have been
combined because the disposal losses tend to be small and not easily
quantifiable and also because the distinction between 'end use* and disposal
is not always well-defined. As stated above, the major emissions (for
those chemicals with large emissions) occur in the end use category.
The world emission estimates shown in Table 111-19 combine the total
production, transport, storage, end use and disposal estimates into one
figure for each chlorocarbon. The purpose of this world estimate is to
give an indication of the importance of various geographic emission sources
in relation to the U.S. emissions, and also to indicate the approximate
level of total chlorocarbon emissions to the atmosphere on a global basis.
As discussed previously, most of these chemicals are believed by atmospheric
scientists to be subject to high rates of decomposition in the lower
atmosphere.
Ill-28
-------
Table 111-19. ESTIMATED WORLD CHLOROCARBON EMISSIONS-1973
(units as indicated below)
i
NJ
Chlorocarbon
Carbon tetrachloride
Chloroform
Ethyl chloride
Ethylene dichloride
Methyl chloride
Methyl chloroform
Methylene chloride
Perchloroethylene
Trichloroethylene
b
Vinyl chloride
Regional percent of total
United States Europe Other
50
50
55
35
60
60
55
45
30
25
40
40
30
40
35
30
30
45
55
40
10
10
15
25
5
10
15
10
15
35"
World total
Thousand Millions
metric tons of pounds
41.7
12.4
14.6
565.2
7.9
324.2
346.4
609.0
648.3
351.6
92.0
27.4
32.2
1,246.3
17.5
714.8
763.8
1,342.9
1,429.6
775.3
founded to nearest 5 percent.
EPA estimates.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
IV. ANALYSIS OF MAJOR U.S. EMISSION SOURCES
AND ALTERNATIVES FOR EMISSION ABATEMENT
A. INTRODUCTION
The preceding chapter identified the major sources of halocarbon emissions.
i*
The high-volume applications of these compounds (aerosols,frarrigeration,
plastic .foam production, and solvent cleaning) are the most sensitive points
for emission reduction strategies. This chapter discusses in detail the
technologies of these major applications and sets forth the most feasible
emission control options.
B. PRODUCTION, TRANSPORT, AND STORAGE EMISSIONS
Atmsopheric emissions of the chlorocarbons and fluorocarbons from pro-
duction, transport and disposal are extremely small (ca. 1 percent of total
emissions) for those compounds having relatively large atmospheric discharges.
In view of the small size of these emissions relative to those from end use
and disposal and the relative cost/effectiveness of reducing emissions from
these two groupings, we have not examined the alternatives for emission abate-
ment from production, transport, and storage.
IV-1
-------
C. END USE AND DISPOSAL EMISSIONS
1. Aerosol Propellants
a. Introduction - The fluorocarbons are one of three major types of propellants
used in aerosol products today. The other two are hydrocarbons and compressed
gases. Some of the Important characteristics of each type and factors which
affect the selection of a specific type for a given aerosol are discussed
in the sections which follow. The fluorocarbons and hydrocarbons are
characterized as liquified gas propellants. They are gases at normal room
temperature and pressure, but become liquified when compressed and confined
under pressure in an aerosol container.
Sketches of several different types of aerosol containers are shown in
Figure IV-1. In the case of the liquified propellants, the vapor pressure
of the liquid, confined at a temperature above its normal boiling point,
provides the propellant force. When the actuator button is pressed, opening
the valve, the pressure forces the contents through the valve orifice and
out the nozzle in the form of a spray, mist, foam or steady stream depending
on the type of delivery desired.
An important advantage of liquified propellants is that they provide
relatively uniform pressure over the life of the product. Vapor pressure is
dependent on temperature, but since most aerosols are used at or near room
temperature, pressure variations are relatively small. Another advantage of
liquified gas propellants is that they form part of the solvent system and
as such provide a "burst" effect. In other words, as the solution leaves
the nozzle, the propellant immediately vaporizes or flashes off from the
solution. This vaporization aids in producing a fine (true aerosol) spray.
IV-2
-------
•*^;.^
;*'>:.'• ':';'•;.••
i$"5 "• •'- •-'-..'., • i • •-•-• . .-. .-
>;COMPRESSED GAS-'
^'•PROPELLANT
V;:'-. :r-;«'|i| ':-.•-;
iunn
fi" f '• s. ; :
hinin
...
'• • ' /Liouio . •
U CONCENTRATE
Operates by
pressing^ down
Propellanl gas
pressure
opproi.
35 p.s.ig.
ol 70'F.
~ propellent
-~ ami active
- ingreditnts
Proptllanl
prestwr cpproiimole!*
40p.i.ig. aiTO'F
| wporphoss
Liquid phot<
perl urn*
eclive i
Slnglt-phM* atrosol is powered by (1)
compressed gas. This type is used lor
whipped cream.
Two-phM* spray or misl aerosol has (t) liquefied
propellanl in solution with product. (2) gas or vapor
phase to supply pressure. This type is used tor
majority olaeroiob
Two-phie* foam aerosol hits (1) liquefied
propeHant in emulsion with product. (21 gas
or vapor phase. Typical use is shave
teams
PRODUCT
—VALVE
-POLTEIHYLME
PlSTO»
GAS
5*5 PlUC
IIUKIIIUII CM (W
Three-plwe* aerosol has (t) CompertmenM aerosol has plastic piston Co-dl«penslng. Diagram shows operation ol hot shave
liquetal propellanl. (2) product thai separates propellanl gas and product. A aerosol. Co-dnpensing offers potential tar personal pro-
Jh>t floats on propellanl, 0) gas or variation employs a polyethylene bag to ^ ducts, drugs, foods. •'
r' vapot phase. • ' ' separate product and gas. • * '
Figure IV1-1. Types of Aerosol Containers
Source: Modern Packaging Encyclopedia, 1972/73.
IV-3 .
-------
In powder sprays, the liquified propellant serves as the suspending medium
for the powder. The burst effect and rapid evaporation of the propellant
make it possible to deliver a "dry" spray. This is considered an important
feature, for example, for anti-perspirants. Background and detailed
discussion of aerosol technology may be found in a variety of sources,
a
including the Aerosol Handbook.
*
Fluorocarbons are used as aerosol propellants, even though they are
more expensive than other propellants, because they offer an advantageous
combination of properties including:
• Safety - nonflammable and a low order of toxicity,
• Liquified gas form - advantages of this feature have been
described above,
• Versatility - fluorocarbons can be blended to provide a range of
pressures and solubility characteristics,
• Chemical stability/inertness - little or no deleterious effect on
other components of product formulation or on the container, and
• Odorless - especially important for perfume formulations.
Nonflammability is probably the single most important attribute since this
characteristic, more than any other, distinguishes fluorocarbon from hydrocarbon
propellants.
The three major fluorocarbon propellants are F-ll, F-12 and F-114. A
few other fluorocarbons are used in only relatively minor,amounts; these
include F-115, F-22, F-142b, and F-152a. Physical properties of these compounds
are included in Table IV-1. Fluorocarbon C-318 was used in some aerosol food
products, but has been supplanted by F-115. Fluorocarbon 12 has a.relatively
aThe Aerosol Handbook, Johnsen, et al. editors, W. E. Borland Co., 1972.
IV-4
-------
Table IV-1. PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF AEROSOL PROPELLANTS
Propellant
Types
Fluorocarbons
F-ll ' • '
F-12
F-114
F-115
F-21
F-22
F-142b
F-152a
F-C318
Hydrocarbons
Propane
Isobutane
n- Butane
Dimethyl Ether
Compressed Gases
. Carbon Dioxide
Nitrous Oxide
Nitrogen
Chlo rocarbons
Methylene Chloride
Methylchloroform
Methyl Chloride
Ethyl Chloride
Chemical
Formula
CC13F
CC12F2
-CC1F2CC1F2
CC1F2CF3
CHC12F
CHC1F2
CH3CC1F2
CH3CHF2
"4*8
63%
i-C4H10
CH3Oci3
C02
N20
N2
CH2C12
CH3CC13
CH3C1
CH3CH2C1
Boiling
Point , °F
,74.9
-21.6
38.8
-38.4
48.1
-41.4
15.1
-13
21.5
-43.8
10.9
31.1
-12.7
_
-127
-320
104
165
-10.6
54.3
Vapor Pressure
70°F
13
85
27
120
23
136
44
76
40
124
45
31
78
852
735
—
7
2
74
20
130°F
"39
196
73
.267
65
312
107
191
107
274
110
81
187
_
-
—
24
7 :
174
56
Kauri-3-
Butanol
Value
60
18
12
7
102
25
20
11
5
. -
-
-
_
•-
—
136
117
,+100
—
Flammability
Limits
Vol % in Air
nonflammable
nonflammable
•nonflammable
nonflammable
nonflammable
nonflammable
9.0 to 14.8
5.1 to 17.1
nonflammable
2.2 to 9.5
1.8 to 8.4
1.9 to 8.5
3.4 to 18.0
nonflammable
nonflammable
nonflammable
nonflammable
nonflammable
7.6 to 19.0
3.8 to 15.0
Toxicityb-
Rating
5
6
6
6
4 to 5
5a
-
6
6
5
5
5
—
5a
-
—
4 to 'j
-
4
4
a. Higher number indicates stronger solvent power.
b. Underwriters Laboratory Toxicity Rating System -
6 least toxic, as a reference point, carbon
dioxide is class 5a.
Sources:' 1. DuPont and Allied Chemical Trade Literature
2. Modern Packaging Encyclopedia, Sept., 1967-
3. The Aerosol Handbook, Johnson et al.
editors, 1972.
-------
high vapor pressure and is used to provide the pressure or propelling force
in many formulations. To maintain pressure at a safe level in the container,
F-12 is used in combination with a vapor pressure depressant, either a higher
boiling fluorocarbon or another organic solvent. Typically F-ll is blended
with F-12 to reduce pressure and to improve solubility and compatibility with
other components of the formulation. Fluorocarbon 114 is used alone or in
blends with F-12 primarily in colognes, perfumes, and some specific brands
of personal care products.
b. Emission Sources - An estimate of fluorocarbon emissions to the atmosphere
in the form of aerosol propellants, based on 1973 U.S. consumption of aerosol
products is given in Table IV-2. The total 1973 propellant emissions for
fluorocarbons F-ll, F-12 and F-114 were slightly greater than 500 million
pounds. Based on estimates of 1974 sales of aerosol products, emissions in
1974 were approximately 90 percent of the 1973 level. These totals include
losses of propellant during filling of the aerosol containers, estimated
by industry sources to be on the order of 3 percent of the total propellant
charge.
As indicated in Table IV-2 hair sprays and anti-perspirants (plus
deodorants) are the two largest categories for fluorocarbon emissions—
representing approximately 75 percent of the total emissions as aerosol
propellant. Fluorocarbon propellants are used in more than 90 percent of
the medical and pharmaceutical aerosol products. This category accounted for
emissions of approximately 17 million pounds of F-ll and F-12 in 1973, or about
4 percent of total fluorocarbon propellant emissions. Fluorocarbon propellants
are used to some extent in many other aerosol product categories, but either
IV-6
-------
Table IV-2. ESTIMATED U.S. FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS AS AEROSOL PROPELLANT3
BY PRODUCT TYPE - 1973
_*• Aerosol unit estimates «^ ^ Fluorocarbon propellant emission estimates ^
^
, Aerosol type
Personal
Hair care
Antlperspirants
• and deodoranto
Medicinal and pharmaceutical
Colognes and perfumes
Shave lathers
Others
Household
Room deodorants
Cleaners
Laundry products
Waxes and polishes
Others'
All Other Products
Insecticides
Coatings
Industrial
Foods and pan spray
Automotive
Vet. and pet
Others
Millions
of units
filled
469
577
66
144
171
70
170
211
163
105
43
143
268
132
115
89
16
34
Percent
of units
propelled
by F.C.
95
95
90
95
10
80
20
10
20
30
25
30
10
30
5
15
50
40
Average
weight
(Ib/unit)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.6
Average
Percent
propellant
Per unit
50
65
80
45
10
60
50
20
35
15
50
40
45
50
65
30
50
30
~"* (millions of pounds) "~"
Subtotal
Subtotal
Subtotal
Subtotal
Total Units Filled . 2,986
Total Emissions (millions of pounds)
Percent of F.C. Propellant Emissions
F-ll
emissions
103.0
85.5
188.5
11.0
-
_
7.5
18.5
2.7
2*1
4.2
1.5
2.0
12.5
5.5
3.4
6.0
-
1.0
0.5
1.0
17.4
236.9
46.4
F-12
emissions
72.0
114.3
186.3
5.5
1.0
0.4
7.5
14.4
5.0
2.1
6.0
2.5 •
2.0
- 17.6
9.0
6.6
11.0
- -
2.5
' 0.5
1.5
31.1
249.4
48.8
F-114
emissions
3.4
7.0
10.4
3.0
6.7
0.6
1.0
11.3
_
-
-
-
-
0.0
-
-
-
3.0
-
-
-
3.0
24.7
4.8
Total F.C.
emissions
178.4
206.8
385.2
19.5
7.7
1.0
16.0
44.2
7.7
4.2
10.2
4.0
4.0
30.1
14.5
10.0
17.0
3.0
3.5
1.0
2.5
51.5
511.0
100.0
Percent
of total
35.0
40.4
75.4
3.8
1.5
0.2
3.1
8.6
1.5
0.8
2.0
0.8
0.8
5.9
2.8
2.0
3.3
0.6
0.7
0.2
0.5
10.1
100.0
*Use and filling emissions for products produced in 1973; emission lag averages 6 months for most products; some unit estimates have been rounded.
Sources: Chemical Specialties Manufacturers Association and Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates based on industry contacts.
-------
because these other categories are small or because fluorocarbons are used
in only a small portion of the units, the total fluorocarbon emissions from
all other categories is relatively minor, with no one group of products
accounting for more than 4 percent of total fluorocarbon propellant emissions.
c. Alternatives - Potential alternatives to the presently used fluorocarbon
propellants are described below. Physical properties of these alternatives
are included in Table IV-1.
Other Fluorocarbons - Based on discussions with fluorocarbon producers,
the possibilities for substituting other fluorocarbons that are potentially
less stable in the atmosphere due to the presence of hydrogen atoms or
unsaturation are very limited. Unsaturated fluorocarbons are characterized
as generally toxic and therefore unacceptable as propellants. As more
hydrogen atoms are added, the fluorocarbons become flammable. Fluorocarbon
22 might be a substitute for F-12 in some cases, but some producers question
whether it would also be found to pose a significant threat to atmospheric
ozone. Fluorocarbons F-31, F-32, F-142 and F-152 are all flammable and
therefore lack a key advantage of the current fluorocarbon propellants.
There is also a problem in finding an acceptable substitute for the lowei
boiling component, typically F-ll, used as a vapor pressure depressant
and solvent. Use of F-21 as a low-pressure component would be possible
at a reasonable cost, but since it is a very strong solvent, it is likely to
act as a skin irritant if present as a substantial portion of the propellant
system. Therefore, it is questionable whether fluorocarbon 21 would be
suitable for use in personal products—which represent the major use for
fluorocarbon propellants.
Assessment of the possibility of using perfluorocarbons (containing
IV-8
-------
only carbon and fluorine) as propellents is difficult at this point. Producers
indicate that such compounds would be more complex, higher molecular weight
species, which would be considerably more expensive than the simpler products
presently manufactured commercially. DuPont has offered F-C318 (perfluoro-
cyclobutane) in limited quantities in the past, particularly for food products;
but this use has been supplanted by F-115. DuPont estimates that the cost of
F-C318 might be five to ten times that of F-ll even with large scale commercial
production. Other perfluoro compounds (e.g., perfluoropropane, perfluoro-n-
butane and perfluoroisobutane are currently being produced only in experimental
quantities.
The manufacturers of these compounds estimate that commercial prices for
one of these compounds, perfluoropropane, would be on the order of $2 to $6
per pound depending on the scale of operation. (This price range is about ten
times the price of F-ll and F-12.) In addition to higher cost, the perfluoro-
carbon compounds have the important disadvantage of being generally poor sol-
vents .
Hydrocarbons - Hydrocarbons used as liquefied gas propellants include
isobutane, propane, n-butane, and dimethyl ether. Isobutane and propane are
the two which are most widely used. Hydrocarbons offer most of the performance
features of fluorocarbons and are appreciably lower in cost. However, they are
highly flammable, and this has prevented their general use as substitutes for
fluorocarbons. In some instances, minor amounts of hydrocarbon are blended
with halocarbohs to reduce costs. The proportions used are such that the
halocarbons suppress flammability.
An ideal propellant has high enough solvent power to dissolve the product
ingredients but is not strong enough to irritate the skin.
IV-9
-------
In general, hydrocarbons have replaced fluorocarbons in applications
for liquefied gas propellants where:
a) fluorocarbon propellants cannot sufficiently suppress the
inherent flammability of the product ingredients to meet
nonflammable classifications (e.g., spray paints), and
b) the product is water based and sufficiently nonflammable to
use hydrocarbon propellants (e.g., shave lathers).
Compressed Gases - Compressed gases used as propellants include nitro-
gen, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide. Their advantages are low cost,
low toxicity, and nonflammability. The disadvantages of nitrogen that
have prevented its widespread use stem basically from its insolubility in
the liquid phase of the product formulation. All of the propelling force
depends on the degree of compression of the nitrogen gas above the liquid
phase. As the product is used, the increase in volume of the gas phase
results in a proportional reduction in pressure — since there is no reser-
voir of dissolved or liquefied gas in the liquid phase. This decrease in
pressure causes undesirable changes in spray characteristics, typically
a coarser spray.
To provide volume for sufficient nitrogen propellant to expel all of
the product, a larger can or lower proportion of product fill must be used
than in the case of liquefied gases. Also, since there is no burst effect
at the nozzle, the sprays generated tend to be coarser than those achieved
with liquefied propellants.
IV-10
Arthur I) Little Inc.
-------
Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide have considerably greater solubility
in the liquid phase of aerosol formulations and, therefore, are preferred
over nitrogen as propellants. However, they share many of the undesirable
pressure characteristics of nitrogen and until recently have been used
primarily only in foams or such products as furniture polishes and wind-
shield de-icers where coarser sprays are satisfactory. Nitrous oxide has
the further disadvantage of being a powerful oxidizing agent - a property
which greatly increases the flammability of products propelled with this
gas.
Recent developments announced by valve manufacturers and carbon
dioxide suppliers indicate that there may be some potential for use of
carbon dioxide as a propellant to replace fluorocarbons. An assessment of
this possibility is presented below under "Technical and Economic Evaluation."
Chlorocarbons - Several chlorocarbons — methyl chloride, ethyl chlo-
ride, and vinyl chloride — have been considered as potential propellants
by virtue of their low to moderate vapor pressures. However, they are also
noted for undesirably high solvent power, toxicity, and flammability.
Vinyl chloride was formerly used to an appreciable extent in propellant
blends, but its use has been banned because of its carcinogenic properties.
None of these are viable alternatives to fluorocarbon propellants.
Methylene chloride is the most important of the chlorocarbons used in
aerosols. It does not have adequate vapor pressure (b.p. 104°F) to serve
as a propellant but is used as a higher boiling component for its combina-
tion of nonflammability, solvent properties, and relatively low cost.
IV-11
-------
Another chlorocarbon solvent used for similar reasons is methyl chloroform.
Methylene chloride is used as a partial replacement for fluorocarbons in
some hair sprays to reduce product costs, however, because of its strong
solvent action it tends to act as a skin irritant. Typical concentration
levels are less than 10 percent to avoid a significant incidence of skin
irritation. One large chemical manufacturer has promoted a hair spray
propellant system based on a mixture of methylene chloride and nitrous -
oxide, but this system has not achieved commercial acceptance because of
the irritation problem. Further work may resolve this problem.
Mechanical Devices - There are many mechanical devices or other
delivery systems which may be cited as potential alternatives to the
fluorocarbon propelled aerosols. Many products are currently offered in
both aerosol and non-aerosol forms. An alternative in some cases would be
to return to the product form which was used prior to the aerosol form.
However, aerosol proponents argue that in many applications there is no
equally effective, convenient, and satisfactory means for dispensing the
product. Examples range from hair sprays and anti-perspirants to insecti-
cides and certain medicinal and pharmaceutical products.
Finger- or hand-activated mechanical pumps represent an area of
considerable interest and development effort. A pump-based hair spray
was brought on the market in 1972, and at least seven companies now offer
hair sprays, both men's and women's that use pump delivery systems.
Standard test methods for evaluating performance characteristics of pumps
have been proposed, and a number of companies making these pumps are
IV-12
-------
having difficulty meeting current demand. The current demand level is on the
order of 50 to 60 million pumps per year for hair care products. This is
approximately 13 percent of the number of aerosol hair care units which were
marketed in 1974.
At least two container designs which are capable of pressure dispensing
without the use of propellant are available. One design utilizes an expendable
0
rubber bladder inside a rigid outer container. The recovery force of the blad-
der, expanded with the product during filling, provides the dispensing pressure.
Another container utilizes a compressed steel spring to deliver a burst of
i
spray from a dispensing chamber. The container is a two-part design. The
user reloads the spring for each burst of spray by rotating the bottom part of
the container 180°. The development and evaluation of these designs is still
underway, but due to limited pressures, spray delivery characteristics, and
cost of the containers, it appears unlikely that either of these designs offers
a viable alternative for most personal aerosol products.
Several manufacturers have available container designs characterized as
"bag-in-can" types. In these containers the product is held in a plastic
pouch or bag mounted within a conventional aerosol can. These delivery systems
require the use of some type of conventional propellant but the propellant is
not released until the can is destroyed or recycled. Several technical and
cost problems have yet to be solved for these systems.
Other product forms or delivery systems of the non-aerosol type that can
be cited to compete effectively with current aerosols and their other altern-
atives include such items as squeeze bottles, roll-on applicators, stick-type
applicators, squeeze tubes, wick-type dispensers, saturated pad applicators,
felt tip applicators, and products which can be applied by hand from a glass
or plastic container.
IV-13
-------
d. Potential Environmental Hazards of Alternatives - The various propellant
alternatives discussed above should be examined in terms of possible adverse
environmental effects which could result from their replacement of fluoro-
carbons 11 and 12. This assessment seems more difficult in view of the
unsuspected environmental hazard which has, in theory, been linked to long-
term atmospheric emissions of F-ll and F-12.a Nevertheless, it is important
to review the environmental characteristics of the alternatives so that other
known hazards are not created through substitution. Some environmental char-
acteristics of fluorocarbons,. hydrocarbons, compressed gases and chlorocarbons
are discussed below.
Other Fluorocarbons - In view of the current ozone destruction hypothesis,
other fluorocarbons must be assessed in terms of stability in the lower
atmsophere as well as with respect to toxicity ratings and other possible
environmental hazards. According to current belief of scientists, who
are studying the ozone depletion hypothesis, molecules containing carbon-
carbon double bonds or carbon-hydrogen bonds should be susceptible to
attack by OH radicals in the lower atmosphere and should therefore have
relatively short (e.g. 1-5 year) atmospheric residence times. On the other
hand, saturated perfluorocarbons (containing only carbon and flourine atoms)
could be so stable that environmental effects would be negligible for an
indefinite period. At this point the long-term effects of a build-up of
stable synthetic halocarbons in the atmosphere are not fully understood and
further studies of the possible environmental hazards of these compounds are
now underway.
aThe scope of this study did not include an assessment of the ozone deple-
tion hypothesis and no judgement on this question should be inferred here,
or elsewhere in the report.
IV-14
-------
Hydrocarbons - Propane and various saturated isomers of butane are
by far the predominant hydrocarbon propellants today. As paraffins, these
compounds exhibit low photochemical reactivity and are exempt compounds
under Rule 66 of the Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control District.
Furthermore, when comparing the potential magnitude of hydrocarbon emissions
as aerosol propellant to total hydrocarbon emissions from other sources,
it appears that.the environmental impact of substituting hydrocarbons for
fluorocarbons in this application would be small. For example, if the
total 1973 fluorocarbon propellant emissions of approximately 500 million
pounds were replaced pound-for-pound by hydrocarbon emissions, these emissions
would represent less than one percent of national hydrocarbon emissions
in 1970 as estimated, by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.3 In the
past, the flammability of these compounds (which may be suppressed with
halocarbons) has mitigated against their use in those products where
fluorocarbons are most widely used.
Compressed Gases - For the quantities which would be involved in aerosol
spray applications, the compressed gases would be unlikely to present an
environmental hazard. Nitrogen, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are all
natural components of the atmosphere. Nitrogen makes up approximately 75
percent, carbon dioxide 0.05 percent and nitrous oxide about 0.00016 percent
by weight of the earth's atmosphere. Even for nitrous oxide, the quantity
of atmospheric emissions which would result from substituting this compressed
gas for current world-wide use of F-ll and F-12 as aerosol propellants would
be less than one-tenth of one percent of the estimated annual global emissions
The National Air Monitoring Program; Air Quality and Emissions Trends
bVol. 1, EPA, 1973. Table 1-5.
Bolz, R.E., and G.L. Tiave, (eds.), Handbook of Tables for Applied Engineering
Science, The Chemical Rubber Co., Cleveland, 1972. P. 533.
IV-15
-------
of nitrous oxide from biological action. Unfortunately, as was noted earlier,
these gases are far from ideal aerosol propellants for many applications.
None of them will deliver a fine spray with current technology, nitrogen
has very poor solubility properties, and nitrous oxide presents a direct
personal hazard because of its strong oxidizing power.
Chlorocarbons - These compounds are undesirable as broad substitutes
for the fluorocarbon propellants because of the direct human hazards they
would present in terms of flammability, toxicity and skin irritation. ;In
view of these characteristics, no assessment of possible environmental
hazards is presented here. It is worth noting, however, that methyl chloride
has been identified as a possible source of stratospheric chlorine atoms.
Although a natural source is believed to exist for much of the methyl chloride
present in the atmosphere, substitution of methyl chloride for F-12 as a
propellant would increase estimated U.S. anthropogenic emissions of this
chemical by a factor of about thirty.
e. Technical and Economic Evaluation of Aerosol Alternatives - The approxi-
mate selling prices (mid-1975) of the various major types of aerosol pro-
pellants in use are listed by Table IV-3. The fluorocarbons, clearly, are
the most expensive propellants among those commonly in use. One industry
source estimated that in his company's aerosol product line, fluorocarbon
propellants represent, on the average, about 30% of the direct product cost.
If direct substitution of alternative propellants such as hydrocarbons
aRecent work by one producer suggests that methylene chloride may be sub-
stituted as vapor depressant, in small quantity without causing flamm-
ability, skin irritation or toxicity hazards. Also, since the hydroxyl
reactivity rate of methylene chloride is relatively high, it probably
poses less of a threat to the atmosphere than the more stable fluorocarbons.
IV-16
-------
Table IV-3. APPROXIMATE SELLING PRICE OF MAJOR
AEROSOL PROPELLANTS - 1975
(cents per pound)
Propellant types
Fluorocarbons
F-ll
F-12
F-114
F-115
Price
35
41
49
150
Hydrocarbons
Propane
Isobutane
n-Butane
14
12
12
Compressed gases
Carbon dioxide
Nitrous oxide
Nitrogen
5
19
3
Chlorocarbon
Methylene chloride
17
Price will vary considerably depending on quantities purchased
and shipping costs. These are prices to aerosol fillers.
Source: .Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry contacts.
IV-17
-------
were possible, propellant cost would be reduced to about 10 percent of product
cost. There have been strong economic incentives, therefore, for producers of
aerosol products to use alternative propellants, wherever possible, to form-
ulate marketable products. However, in the absence of regulatory controls,
the market place, however imperfect, ultimately serves to determine which
product or products the consumer finds most satisfactory on a cost/performance
basis. Historically, the consumer has found fluorocarbon products to be most
satisfactory in many cases.
There seems to be a general consensus among aerosol industry representa-
tives that it is not possible to make a direct substitution of one type of
propellant for another or substitute a mechanical delivery system for an
aerosol system without significantly altering the characteristics of the
product in question. Thus, assessment of the technical feasibility of
alternatives to fluorocarbon based aerosols is difficult because of the many
subjective product qualities involved as perceived by the consumer. The con-
venience of aerosols relative to mechanical applicators is one example; the
unpleasant feel of a wet, cold spray on the skin is another. In hair sprays,
a pump spray may be more satisfactory for a particular hair style than an
aerosol product, or vice-versa. The desired amount of 'holding power1 and
the 'feel' of the hair are important considerations according to aerosol hair
spray marketers.
A number of pump type hair sprays are currently on the market, as noted
previously. The pumps used in these products cost approximately 10 to 15$.
In a comparison with aerosol spray systems, the pump can be viewed as a
3.
replacement for both the aerosol valve and the propellant. The valve and
But not a total replacement since the product must be reformulated with
additional solvent to replace solvent power of the propellant.
IV-18
-------
overcap for fluorocarbon aerosol products cost approximately 3 to 4$. Propel-
lant costs obviously depend on the amount used, which in turn depends on
specific formulation and size or weight of the product. The combinations of
F-ll and F-12 typically used cost about 40-45
-------
of the C0? system. Filling costs are on the order of l-2<: per unit higher
because of the saturation step required with CO..
Aerosol products are labeled and marketed on a total contents weight
basis; i.e., the weight of propellant is included in the product weight.
Since there is no propellant in a pump spray and since a carbon dioxide
aerosol spray contains much less propellant than a fluorocarbon aerosol, there
is some question as to the content weight which constitutes an equivalent
\
amount of product in each case. As noted above, differences in formulation
required to meet desired performance characteristics are also involved.
For example, use of additional solvent may be one method to at least partially
replace liquified propellant. Furthermore, a marketing strategy may be
adopted whereby the alternatives are either marketed at the same total content
weight or in the same size package as the fluorocarbon propelled aerosols.
These factors complicate any direct cost comparison.
The general consensus of the industry at this point seems to be that-
pump sprays presently cost slightly more than fluorocarbon aerosol sprays
a
while CO -based products cost slightly less. Again, it is worth repeating
that any comparison of costs should be viewed with the understanding that
the product performance characteristics of each of the alternatives are
different.
Hydrocarbon-based hairspray products in which water was included in
the formulation to suppress flammability were on the market at one time
several years ago. They reportedly were less costly than fluorocarbon
based products, but they never achieved successful consumer acceptance and
were eventually withdrawn from the market. In the anti-perspirant product
aThis comparison is on a total product weight basis, including aerosol
propellant.
IV-20
-------
category, there has been no widely acknowledged success to date in the use of .
compressed gas or hydrocarbon propellants. (One industry source reports that
an anti-perspirant formulated with a methylene chloride/hydrocarbon propellant
system has been marketed on a limited scale for several years.) Developments
are underway on pump-based products, and a product of this type is reportedly
undergoing limited market tests. Alternative product forms already on the
market, and in apparently increasing quantities, include roll-ons, sticks,
and pad-type products. There has been an effort to promote forms which spray
a dry powder, but these are criticized on the basis that most of the powder
does not adhere to the skin. Another possibility, if fluorocarbon-based
anti-perspirants were to be banned, is that there would be a resurgence of
deodorant aerosols—provided that these can be formulated with an alternative
propellant such as CQ--
Information on perfluorocarbon compounds under evaluation as propellants
is limited because interest in them was generated only recently by the threat
of possible restrictions on the use of F-ll and F-12, and also because of
confidentiality agreements between femulators and suppliers. However, at
projected commercial prices of $2 or more per pound, they would be at a
severe, if not prohibitive, cost disadvantage relative to the other alterna-
tives—except perhaps in high-cost specialty items such as perfumes or medical/
pharmaceutical products.
2. Refrigerants
a. End Use - The end use of fluorocarbons in refrigeration and air condition-
o
ing is distributed between R-ll , 12 and 22, accounting for all but a few
aThe 'R1 in this terminology is an abbreviation for 'refrigerant* and is
equivalent to the *F' code used for fluorocarbons in other sections of this
report.
IV-21
-------
percent of the total refrigerants sold. The estimated quantities used are
shown in Table IV-4.
Table IV-4. END USE OF FLUOROCARBON REFRIGERANTS BY TYPE
Fluorocarbon
R-ll
R-12
R-22
Other
Total
1973 End Use
(millions of pounds)
18
168
90
24
300
(percent)
6
56 x
30
8
100
Source: Arthur D. Little, estimates based on industry data.
An estimate of 1973 fluorocarbon refrigerant use and emissions to the
atmosphere is shown in Table IV-5. This table is based on data compiled
by industry associations, the U.S. Department of Commerce, fluorocarbon
producers and refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment manufacturers.
The individual emission estimates are calculated from unit data, using the
assumptions given on the table.
b. Emission Problem Areas - As indicated in Table IV-5, fluorocarbon
emissions from automobile air-conditioning, from residential and commerical
air-conditioning, and from food store refrigeration are all relatively
large. Approximately 80 percent of the fluorocarbon refrigerant emissions
are derived from air-conditioning applications. It appears that more than
60 percent of all refrigerant emissions could be eliminated with improved
service procedures and with relatively minor design changes. Another 25
percent of emissions could be recovered at the point of disposal, and the
remaining 15 percent eliminated only by changing to a different refrigerant.
IV-2 2
-------
Table IV-5. ESTIMATED U.S. FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS AND USE AS REFRIGERANT - 1973
. Type
of b
equipment
Halor Appliances
Room A/C l
pehumldif iers1
Freezers '
Refrigerators
Other
Ice makers
Water coolers
Mobile A/C*
Unitary residential A/C
Unitary commercial A/C
Centrifugal chillers
Reciprocating chillers
Unit coolers
Food store refrtg. '
Mobile ref rig. 2
Beverage refrlg.
Packaged terminal A/C
Refrigerant
commonly
used
t
22
12
12
' 12
12
12
12C
22
22
11.12.22
11.12.22
12
12,22
12
12
22
nits In
service
millions)
Units
shipped
1973.
(millions)
•Units
scrapped
1973
(millions)
Average
unit
charge
(Ib/unlt)
^ Unit Estimates _
29.0
5.1
22.4
68.7
1.3
3.8
45.0 .
11.4
4.0
0.05
0.2
1.7
0.2
0.5
23.8
1.0
5.35
0.65
2.42
6.77
0.22
0.39
7.53
2.15
0.62
0.005
0.02
0.19
0.008
0.07
3.57
0.15
-
4.00
0.16
1.10
4.00
0.03
0.16
7.00
0.40
0.17
0.001
0.003
0.12
0.006
0.03
0.65
0.03
- -
2.00
. 0.84
1.25
0.63
2.00
.1.00
3.80
9.20
36.0
2500
350
14.0
675
14.0
1.2
2.5
-
Original
charge
1973
million Ib)
10.7
0.5
3.0
4.3
0.4
0.4
28.6
19.8
22.3
12.5
7.0
2.7
5.4
1.0
*-3
0.4
9.0
132.3
Leakage
not re-
coverable
million Ib)
Preventable
leakage
(million Ib]
Recoverable
refrigerant
at disposal
(million Ib)
Total
emissions
follllon Ib)
^ Emission Estimates11
~~*"
1.2
0.1
0.6
0.9
0.1
0.1
6.8
2.1
2.9
6.3
1.4
0.5
6.8
0.1
0.6
0.1 -
2.2
32.8
• "
Small
Small
Small
Small
Small
Small
42. 81
12.6
17.3
15.0
8.4
Small
16.2
0.8
3.4
Small.
11.9
128.4
6.4
.0.1 >
.!• 1
2.0
0.1
- 0.1
21.3
2.9
4.9
2.0
0.8
1.3
. 3.2
0.3
0.6
0.1
3.9
51.1
7.6
0.2
1-7
2.9
0.2
0.2
70.9
17.6
25.1
23.3
10.6
1.8
26.2
1.2
4.6
0.2
18.0
212.3
Percent
of
Total
>,
3.6
0.1
0.8
1.4
C.I
0.1
33.3
.. 8.3
11.8
11.0
5.0
0.8
12.3
0.6
2.2
0.1
8.5
LOO.O
?
to
Small - leas than 0.1 million pounds
"Preventable through relatively minor modifications to current equipment design or service procedures
b,
""R-22 is uaed in busses.
Unit data are on a per store basis.
'Emission basis: • .
i Factory charged, sealed units: 2 percent of charge per year basic leakage (not recoverable).
2.' Field charged sealed compressor units: 2 percent basic leakage and 12 percent service- and design related (potentially preventable).
3. Field charged open motor units: 5 percent basic leakage and 12 percent service- and design-related (potentially preventable).
4. Mobile (automobile) A/C unit: 4 percent basic leakage and 25 percent service- and design-related (potentially preventable).
1-4. Refrigerant charge remaining at time of scrap is equal to 80 percent of original charge.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on Industry contacts.
-------
c. Identification of Potential Solutions - Potential solutions to fluoro-
carbon losses of refrigerants may be classified as follows:
• Leak prevention,
• Recovery during servicing or disposal,
• Use of alternate refrigerants or refrigeration systems, and
• Reduction or elimination of refrigeration and air conditioning.
Alternate refrigerants will be discussed in detail in Section d, "Evaluation
of Chemical Alternatives."
A short discussion of refrigeration systems is given below, as back-
ground for understanding the potential solutions discussed. Figure IV-2
illustrates the basic vapor-compression refrigeration system, which is the
most widely used refrigeration cycle today.
The cycle consists of compression of the refrigerant gas, cooling by
water or air to convert the gas to liquid, and expansion through a valve
to permit evaporation of the liquid. Evaporation absorbs heat from the
refrigerator unit or air being conditioned. The warmed refrigerant then renews
the cycle at the compressor. There are many variations, including more complex
cycles, in order to provide designs that are optimized for particular appli-
cations.
Leak Prevention - Leakage losses are at a relatively low level for hermet-
a
ically sealed systems, being reported at about 2 percent of the initial
charge per year, based on a 10-year life with about 80 percent of charge left
at that time. This rate appears to be about the best the state-of-the-art is
capable of since home refrigerators and window air conditioners are mature,
In the air conditioning and refrigeration industry, the term "hermetic" is
taken to mean a system in which the compressor drive motor is sealed in the
refrigerant atmosphere.
IV-24
-------
COMPRESSOR-
H1GH_PRESSUH(!_S!0£_
" LOW PRESSURE SIDE
MOTOR-
(REFRIGERATION LOAD)
Figure IV-2. Equipment Diagram for Basic Vapor Compression Cycle
Source: ASHRAE Handbook of Fundamentals. American Society of Heating,
Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc., Joseph D.
Pierce, Chairmant 1972.
IV-25
-------
highly competitive products, and do not use mechanical connectors nor elastomer
seals.
Non-hermetically sealed systems on the other hand have substantial
losses; two general categorizations appear reasonable for this class:
mobile and stationary.
The dominant subcategory of mobile systems is the automobile air
conditioner. Auto air conditioners are reported as leaking at a rate of
2-3 ounces per year per unit, but overall losses are reported as closer
to 16 ounces per year per unit. The larger figure is due to the practice
of service stations promoting refrigerant recharging, with the spent charge
being lost to the atmosphere. As in the case of home appliances, the pro-
duct is mature and well engineered, with the rotating shaft seal and the
flexible hoses as leak sources. Leaks from the rotating seal may show
small reduction by using two series seals, but this would add cost and add
to the power requirements to overcome the added friction—with little reduc-
tion in emissions.
A greater point of leverage to reduce losses in auto air conditioners
is to modify the flexible elastomer hose. This hose has a very high perme-
ability at the high temperatures (150°F) under the hood. To shorten it would
probably help but wouldn't attack the basic problem, and would result in a
greater transmission of noise and vibration to the cab. A more basic ap-
proach is to replace the elastomer hose with flexible metal hose. The
three flexible hoses commonly used represent between 5 and 10 percent of
the manufacturing costs of a system. Hose manufacturers indicate that they
have not yet achieved metal flexible hoses that will stand up to the- vibrations
as the auto A/C system is presently designed. However, the failure mode
IV-26
-------
has been postulated as due to torsion from engine rock, which could be allevi-
ated by extra length of hose, providing a loop. A further significant reduc-
tion of losses may be achieved through reduction in service losses, which is
discussed in that section later in this report.
The other category of non-hermetically sealed systems is that of stationary
systems. One subcategory is represented by unitary commercial air conditioners,
another by large commercial refrigeration and air conditioning systems
(chillers).. These subcategories are characterized by field assembly and
charging. Since mechanical tubing connectors are used, such systems are prone
to leak rates in the order of twice those found in. hermetically sealed systems;
resulting in an average charge life of 5 rather than 10 years.
Precharged compressor units that contain the bulk of the necessary charge
sealed within by self-sealing connectors are reported to be in about 40 to 50
percent of the unitary residential A/C units. The evaporator and tubing sets
are factory evacuated and filled with a holding charge of refrigerant. During
field assembly when the connectors are made up they automatically open the
seal with little or no refrigerant loss. Such connectors are swivel type and
are less likely to be mlsmade than conventional flared or compression fittings,
according to the manufacturer. (One manufacturer, however, is of the opinion that
conventional fittings, if properly installed under supervision, are as good .
from a potential leak viewpoint.)
These seal connectors are of two types; one being a seal that is pierced
when assembled and does not reseal when broken again. This type is the one
used in 40-50 percent,of the unitary residential units. The other, that will
reseal itself, is.more expensive and currently is used only in mobile homes,
IV-27
-------
as protection against untrained mechanics. Such connectors may provide an
answer to much of the leakage in other field-assembled units.
Another method that has been suggested to reduce leaks in these systems
is that field systems be assembled by silver soldering the majority of con-
nections instead of using the customary tubing connectors. Indeed, according
to several representative, contractors, they preassembled as much of the
tubing as possible so as to have a minimum number of connectors made up in
\
the field. However, it was also reported that field soldering is difficult
and probably not practical. This approach may warrant further investigation.
In any event, it appears that the bulk of losses from these systems may
come from servicing rather than leakage, where a more common practice appar-
ently is to vent the old charge completely, in smaller units, before adding
the new refrigerant and lubricant, on the supposition that water or air or
oil residues may be partially the cause of malfunction. On larger units,
partial bleed off is practiced for the same reason. This practice and poten-
tial solutions to the losses incurred are discussed under "Recovery During
Servicing or Disposal" belowi
An additional potential leak reduction procedure would be to require
use of electronic leak detectors for all field installations. Apparently
most manufacturers use these instruments, but the common field test is to
use the torch tester that indicates halocarbon presence by a color change
of the flame: its sensitivity is 3.2 oz/year compared to 0.01 oz/year for
the electronic detector. The objection to using the electronic detector
has been stated as too high a sensitivity, so that when making up the
refrigeration system, there is too much fluorocarbon about and the detector
is alarming all the time: the installer can't locate the leak. Also,
IV-28
-------
leakage at installation will remain in the area for some time. These ob-
jections are open to question: the less sensitive detector may be
used for locating large leaks. If necessary, the installations may be left
for a day or so and then rechecked with the electronic detector. Obviously,
the cost of installation increases, but the objective of lowest possible
leakage is attained.
Recovery During Servicing or Disposal - The largest losses from her-
metically sealed units appear to occur upon disposal. Currently there is
no incentive for recovery of the refrigerant charge, and since the scrap
)
value of such units is marginal at best, most are discarded in dumps where
ultimately loss of the remaining charge occurs.
Disposal losses may be prevented if the right combination of incentives
is provided, backed by regulation. A relatively inexpensive pump and re-
ceiver tank constitutes the principal capital investment required for a
service organization or individual to collect refrigerant for recycle.
Since prices for refrigerant run in the order of $2.00 or so per pound re-
tail, and appliance charges are often one pound or less, recovery is an
economically marginal activity. Therefore, possible additional incentives
may be bounties or rebates, possibly covered by an initial purchase price
addition. Such a procedure would probably require a training program for
servicemen and centrally located recycling centers for reception and repro-
cessing of the returned refrigerant.
Prevention of losses from the non-hermetically sealed units may be
possible using the same approach of incentive plus regulation. These units
are serviced by competent, trained persons who should be able to handle
recovery with little additional training.
IV-29
-------
Of particular interest here is auto air conditioning. As previously
stated, the current servicing use appears to be about a pound per year per
unit, whereas manufacturers claim the units should not leak more than about
two to three ounces per year, and that the remaining replacement use is
unwarranted. This area requires more investigation and definition to as-
certain whether such use is or is not necessary. If it turns out that
such use really is not necessary but the shops think it is, a re-education
program may be in order, and, perhaps, diagnostic tools or methods may be>
developed to assist the shop personnel to establish the real cause of auto
air conditioning malfunction. In addition, sale of recharge cans on the
open market as a do-it-yourself kit may have to be restricted.
d. Evaluation of Chemical Alternatives
Alternative Refrigerants for Vapor Compression Cycle - The 1972 ASHRAE
o
Handbook of Fundamentals lists 78 refrigerants with standard designation.
They are categorized as follows:
Number of
Category Chemicals Listed
Halocarbon Compounds 39 *
Cyclic Organic Compounds 3
Azeotropes 5
Hydrocarbons 5
Oxygen Compounds 2
Nitrogen Compounds 2
Inorganic Compounds 12
Unsaturated Organic Compounds 10
Particular refrigerants have been selected over the years as the more desira-
ble chemicals from the viewpoint of performance, availability arid price. The
halocarbons, cyclic organic compounds and azeotropes have largely replaced
all the others (compounds R-ll, 12 and 22 appear to have dominated) in spite
1 Chapter 14 of this volume is an excellent reference on refrigerants.
IV-30
-------
of generally higher prices. The reason this has occurred is the combination
of nontoxicity, and chemical inertness along with good performance character-
istics inherent in these compounds. In the following discussion, the more
common factors used to evaluate refrigerants are discussed.
• Toxicity
Underwriters' Laboratories classify the comparative hazards
to life of gases and vapors in six groups ranging from sulfur
dioxide (a refrigerant formerly in wide use) which, in concen-
trations of about one-half to one percent for durations of
exposure of about 5 minutes, is lethal or produces serious injury,
to Refrigerant 12, which in concentrations up to at least about
20 percent by volume for durations of exposure of about 2 hours
does not appear to produce injury. Most of the fluorocarbons fall
under the very low toxicity classifications, numbers 5 and 6.
Ammonia (another common refrigerant in the past and still used)
falls into Group 2, also quite lethal. Even methylene chloride
which was suggested as a reasonable substitute refrigerant by
one chemical manufacturer interviewed, is listed as just slightly
less toxic than Group 4 which is considered lethal at 2 to 2 1/2
percent for two hours' exposure: This could still be a serious
hazard for home appliances where people may be sleeping at the time
when a leak occurs, although it may be acceptable in large indusr-
trial or commercial uses where size may justify the added precautions
and equipment needed for protection against accidents.
IV-31
-------
• Flammability
Flammability is of concern from the viewpoints of the manu-
facturer who has to handle it, as well as of the user, because of
potential leakage. Ammonia leakage in food storage warehouses .
still causes explosions. Sulfur dioxide is nonflammable but highly
toxic. Methyletie chloride and the fluorocarbons are nonflammable.
The hydrocarbons, such as butane and iso-butane, are good refrig-
erants, nontoxic but flammable.
• Effect on Elastomers
Since elastomers are used as o-ring seals and gaskets in
refrigeration systems, tkeir compatibility with the refrigerant
is important to prevent leaks. Further, the combined effects of
the refrigerant with tha lubricant used in sealed systems is often
synergistic. Methylene chloride is quite hard on most cammon
elastomers, as is, Refrigerant 21: most other common fluorocarben
refrigerants have.at least one or two coramon elastomers that are
little affected but in this category they do not appear to have
a clear cut advantage over alternate refrigerants. Hydrocarbons
have almost no effect-on elastomers.
• Effect on Cpnstruction Materials
Ammonia.cannot be used with copper-bearing metals. Sulfur
dioxide reacts with any moisture present to form sulfuric acid
which is very corrosive to most metals. Magnesium, zinc and
aluminum alloys containing more than 2 percent magnesium are
not recommended for use with the halogenated compounds where
even trace amounts of water are present. So again, for most
IV-32
-------
refrigerants, materials of construction must be carefully
selected, although again, hydrocarbons are quite non-reactive.
• Performance Characteristics
To quote from the ASHRAE Handbook of Fundamentals: "As a
rule, the selection of a refrigerant is a compromise between con-
flicting desirable properties. For example, the pressure in the
evaporator should be as high as possible and, at the same time,
a low condensing pressure is desirable. Low viscosity and low
surface tension are desirable properties but, on the other hand,
they make it difficult to provide dropwise condensation which.would
improve heat transfer. High capacity accompanied by low power
requirements would also be desirable if possible. These and.
other conflicts must be resolved in selecting a refrigerant.
Since evaporation of the liquid is the only step in the
refrigeration cycle which produces cooling, the latent heat of
a refrigerant should be as large as possible. On a molar basis
the latent heat is about the same for materials having the same
boiling point.
Since the compressor operates on volumes of gas or moles,
refrigerants with similar boiling points will produce similar
capacities in the same compressor. The weight of the refrig-
erant circulated would be different, depending on the molecular
weight. The compression ratio in centrifugal compressors is
affected by the vapor, density. The density is related to the
molecular weight of the gas as well as the temperature and
pressure of operation."
IV-33
-------
As a result of these considerations and others, within
reasonable operating pressures the choice of refrigerants are
particularly restricted for use as components in multistage
systems for achieving low temperatures, and for use in normal "low"
temperature refrigerators/freezers, as well as in standard refrig-
erators, and air conditioners. For these reasons, Refrigerant 12
has only one or two potential substitutes even among the fluorochloro-
carbons, for the common household refrigerator, without involving
total redesign.
Potential Substitution
• Substitution of Halocarbons
If Refrigerant 22 is an acceptable compound, having a hydrogen
bond and, hence, being subject to destruction before becoming a
hazard to the ozone layer, then window air conditioning units,
unitary air conditioning systems and some central chillers will
be unaffected. These applications appear to account for a sig-
nificant portion of the AC&R applications. Changing from 12 to
22 for the home refrigerators and freezers would require substantial
redesign. R-22 is widely used for reciprocating units in central commer-
cial air-conditioning systems, up to about 100 ton capacity, and
for centrifugals over 3000 tons or so. The much higher pressure
required for R-22 means increased initial cost in terms of wall
thickness, welds, code requirements, etc. and is worthwhile in the
larger centrifugals. R-ll is used for centrifugals up to 300 tons
or so (and operates under a vacuum), and R-12 is used for the
IV-34
-------
intermediate centrifugals. Therefore conversion to R-22 would
require complete redesign of the small and intermediate centri-
fugals up to about 3000 tons capacity.
Changing from 12 to 22 for auto air conditioners would
require a considerably more complex redesign than that required
for a similar conversion for refrigerators and freezers, primarily
caused by the high temperatures the system is exposed to under
the hood. In addition to the higher pressures, the higher tem-
perature may cause stability problems for the refrigerant, and
will greatly increase the permeation through currently used
elastomer flexible hose.
For all the applications described above that potentially
could use 22 in place of 12, a severe constraint is placed on
the conversion due to the fact that, particularly for home
refrigerators and freezers, the high degree of competition and
'resulting low margin of profit available to the manufacturer,, com-
bined with the potential legal responsibility for consumer products
under today's laws, may discourage manufacturers to the point of their
considering going out of the appliance business and investing the capital
insother ventures or in other divisions of the company.
.Refrigerant 501 is an azeotropic mixture of 75 percent
of Refrigerant 22 and 25 percent Refrigerant 12 and, therefore,
is not an acceptable substitute.
If we then consider that R-22 is not acceptable either,
further consideration leads to development of equipment to
IV-35
-------
handle perfluorides, or development of a completely new refrig-
erant. The.perfluorides are in the order of 20 times more costly
than R-12, since R-12 is an intermediate. Perfluorides also
have poor compatibility with the lubricants. In addition, the
perfluorides would have to be thoroughly investigated and proven
to have no ill effect on the ozone layer, in addition to passing
the more conventional requirements, before industry would be
willing to undertake both their manufacture and use.
• Ammonia
Ammonia is a very good refrigerant and is used in both the
vapor compression cycle and the absorption cycle (to be described
later). It is, however, both toxic and flammable. Hence its use
has been restricted largely to industrial storage and manufacturing
operations where the practices and precautions are able to be
enforced to assure safety. For use in commercial buildings and
in homes, a major redesign would be required to contain the
ammonia cycle equipment out-of-doors where chances of hazards would be
minimized, or to take other precautions to ensure personal safety.
Ammonia is closer to R-22 than to R-12 in characteristics that
bear on equipment design: hence it would present a severe restriction
on design of a substitute system for automotive air conditioning,
for the reasons cited in the preceding section of this report:
high temperatures under the hood, and high condensing pressures.
IV-36
-------
• Hydrocarbons
Many of the hydrocarbons are good performers as refrigerants,
and are used in industrial environments to some degree. Propane,
butane, and iso-butane are three common hydrocarbons that have
good refrigeration characteristics and, though flammable, are
not toxic. Their use would necessitate adequate safeguards against
reaching explosive limits in air mixtures, and probably require
mounting the refrigerant cycle equipment outside of areas occupied
by people, such as homes.
Alternative Refrigerants for Other Cycles - Although the vapor com-
pression cycle dominates the refrigeration and air conditioning industry,
other cycles are used. The most commonly used are: absorption, thermo-
electric, steam Jet, air cycle and liquid nitrogen.
• Absorption
A simplified diagram of the basic absorption refrigeration
cycle is shown in Figure IV-3.
As in the vapor compression cycle, the refrigerant is pressurized,
liquefied, cooled and then allowed to vaporize in the evaporator
where it absorbs heat to accomplish refrigeration. However, instead
of using a compressor to pressurize the refrigerant, it is cooled to
permit liquefaction at a low pressure by absorption in a miscible
absorbent fluid and pumped as a liquid to the generator. Heat is
applied at the generator to drive off the refrigerant as a vapor and
to pressurize it. The refrigerant is then cooled in the condenser
to form a pressurized liquid for use in the evaporator again.
IV-37
-------
_Mt»T
. IN
PUMP
0
Figure IV-3. Basic Absorption Refrigeration Cycle
Source:
ASHRAE Handbook of Fundamentals. American Society of Heating
Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Inc., Joseph
D. Pierce, Chairman, 1972.
IV-38
-------
Modern systems are more complex, mostly due to devices to Increase
thermal efficiency.
Two systems have been commercialized: water-lithium bromide,
and ammonia-water. In the former, water is the refrigerant and a
water-lithium bromide solution is the absorber, whereas in the
latter, ammonia is the refrigerant and water is the absorber.
Because of the toxicity and flammability of ammonia, the water-
lithium bromide appears to have gained greater acceptance and
is used for commercial air conditioning.
The ASHRAE Handbook of Fundamentals discusses advantages and
disadvantages of the various absorption pairs and should be re-
ferred to for more detail.
The April 7, 1975, issue of Air Conditioning, Heating and
Refrigeration News shows that 2,222 absorption and adsorption units
were shipped in 1973. These quantities peaked at 3,193 in 1970 and
have declined to the above value.
The water-lithium bromide system is limited to refrigeration
above 32°F, however, since the refrigerant freezes at that temperature.
As a result, it has been applied principally to commercial air con-
ditioning. Under promotional support by the gas industry, even
home air conditioning systems have been made and sold in the past.
It should be noted that substituting the absorption cycle for
the vapor compression cycle has implications on the type and quantity
of energy use. If electricity must be used, for instance, heat is
used at the power generating station to produce electricity, which
then is subject to transmission losses,' aad then is converted into
IV-39
-------
heat again to power the absorption refrigeration system. The net
result is very low energy efficiency. On the other hand, moderate
temperature waste heat may be used as the energy source for absorption
systems. Indeed, as the technology of solar energy is developed,
absorption systems will be designed using heat from the sun as at
least part of the energy input.
An interesting comparison of the efficiency of power use of
absorption and thermoelectric with vapor compression is given in
the ASHRAE Guide and Data Book, Equipment, 1972, as follows:
"Operating efficiencies of the three most practical refrigeration
systems are as follows for a 0°F freezer and 90°F ambient:
.. *• : ' ' .
- Thermoelectric: approximately 0.3 Btu/Watt hr
- Absorption: approximately 1.5 Btu/Watt hr
- Vapor Compression: approximately 3.0 Btu/Watt hr"
However, conversations with manufacturers indicate that ab-
sorption cycles are close to vapor compression systems at their
present stage of development: They are more expensive in terms
of initial cost but may pay for this difference long term in lower
operating costs* Further, units are now available that operate
off of hot water as a heat source and are being used in conjunc-
tion with solar heating plants.
• Thermoelectric „
There was a great flurry of activity ten years or so ago in
development work with thermoelectric approaches. This method con-
sists of forcing electrical current to flow through a thermocouple
junction (two dissimilar.metal wires connected together in a loop)
1V-40
-------
which causes heat absorption. However, although most refrigeration
and air conditioning firms tried to develop commercial equipment, all
such work appears to have ceased: The approach has been deemed not
commercially feasible, primarily due to a high initial cost in the
order of ten times conventional refrigeration systems.
Thermoelectric systems efficiencies are an order of magnitude
lower than vapor compression systems, as noted in the discussion
of absorption systems immediately preceding.
• Air Cycle Refrigeration
Air cycle refrigeration equipment is still used for air con-
ditioning in some aircraft: The "Brayton" cycle offers low weight
and compactness over vapor compression cycle equipment. Air cycles
were used for cold storage and heater/cooler applications but were
displaced from those uses by the advent of halocarbons. They do
offer an alternative to halocarbons, using a safe, nontoxic and
cheap refrigerant: air. The air cycle equipment has a low
efficiency, however, and this fact has restricted its use severely.
• Steam Jet Refrigeration
Steam jet refrigeration systems are used for industrial cooling
applications such as freeze-drying foods, chemical crystallizers, etc.
In these systems water is the refrigerant and is pumped and com-
pressed by a steam jet ejector instead of a motor-driven compressor.
Thus, like the lithium bromide or ammonia absorption systems, the
equipment is simple, quiet, low in vibration, and low in cost. How-
ever, it must reject two to three times as much heat as a conventional
vapor compression type and generally requires water cooling.
IV-41
-------
9 Liquid Nitrogen
Liquid nitrogen is used as a refrigerant for refrigerated trucks
and trailers, where a hard freeze is required (and for cryogenic
applications). At this point, we do not know how competitive such
systems are for broad use, but they are obviously competitive for
these specialized applications. Since nitrogen makes up four-fifths
of the atmosphere and is nonflammable and nontoxic, it appears to be
a good alternate to consider in more depth if fluorocarbon use must
be discontinued. The major disadvantages of liquid nitrogen are
constant replenishment and the special care required in handling
and distribution due to its very low temperature. The low tempera-
ture of liquid nitrogen also imposes a very large thermodynamic
disadvantage on such a system overall whereas a conventional freezer
requires 1.002 HP of work per ton of refrigeration at 32°F, a liquid
nitrogen system requires approximately 2.65 HP. This is really a
special application which is not practical in most potential uses.
e. Problems with Implementation of Potential Solutions -
Development Time - It must be recognized that the current equipment and
refrigerants have been developed after many trials and errors, and that they
represent the most economical solutions to refrigeration and air conditioning
needs: any changes will involve redesign with associated time and cost com-
mitments .
Potential solutions other than installation and servicing procedure
changes may be classified as product modifications and new product development.
• Product Modifications
This category may include such changes as metal hose
IV-42
-------
substitution in auto air conditioning systems, and substitution of
self-sealing connectors for field-installed systems.
Development time for such changes may range from a year for
testing alternate connectors up to 2 to 2-1/2 years for the design
and testing of. alternate hose-materials and configurations. Another
1 to 2-1/2 years would be needed for tooling and start-up of new
production equipment, according to industry sources*
.• New Product Development r
Examples that fall under this classification may be develop-
ment of a new refrigerant and/or development of equipment to use
the new or an existing alternate refrigerant.
Industry sources have stated the following time requirements:
Refrigerant Producer Years
Identification of new refrigerant and
toxicity tests 2-5
Pilot plant testing 1
New production facility 3
subtotal 6-9
Equipment Manufacturer
Design and test 3-5
Limited production field trials 2
Obtain new manufacturing equipment 2
subtotal 7-9
Thus, according to. industry sources, a 7-9 year development
IV-43
-------
period may be required to convert from R-12 to R-22 in those applications
where conversion is feasible. Full commercial development of a completely
new refrigerant could require a similar time period, although some over-
lap would be expected.
Development Costs - Even small changes made to high-volume products such
as refrigerators and auto air conditioners involve significant capital needs.
In particular, the consumer oriented products must be exhaustively tested both
to satisfy regulatory agencies and in addition to assure the manufacturer that
he will not expose his customers to either hazardous equipment or to an in-
ferior product in a. very competitive marketplace. Because of these restric-
tions the market for such products has dictated evolutionary product develop-
ment, not a revolutionary one.
The extensive development program is followed by the need for heavy
capital investment in tooling for such high-volume products, since the manu-
facturing lines are highly automated.
f. Cost-Effectiveness of Potential Solutions
Containment and Recovery
Because of the very high development costs, extended development
time requirements and large in-service inventory of equipment, coupled
with the observations from Table IV-5 that on the order of 85 percent
of the current emissions are potentially preventable, containment
and recovery of a significant portion of that 85 percent may prove
to be the more cost-effective short-term method of all the potential
solutions discussed here, to reduce fluorocarbon refrigerant emissions.
Even the containment and recovery approach will require a very
careful evaluation and will not be without cost penalties for consumers.
IV-44
-------
Substitution of R-22 for Other Common Halocarbon Refrigerants
If we assume that R^22 is an acceptable refrigerant, then the next most
cost-effective approach (eliminating R-ll and 12) may be:
• Home freezers and refrigerators: attempts to use R-22 have not been
successful;' further development work will be required.
• Home A/C and commercial A/Chillers: small and large units are now
available using R-22; intermediate sizes would be redesigned to
use R-22.
• Auto A/C may not be adaptable to R-22. Therefore, the more cost-
effective course may be the choice of an alternate refrigeration
cycle, such as absorption or the reverse Brayton cycle.
• Further development may allow other applications to use'R-22.
Existing units could be recharged with R-ll .or 12 if some level of emission
were deemed acceptable during the useful life of these units.
Complete Restriction of Common Halocarbon Refrigerants
If we assume that R-22 is not acceptable, a safe and technically well-
developed choice may be substitution of the absorption cycle.
• Home freezers and refrigerators: since systems have been designed
and sold for this application in the past, they could be updated and
substituted. The original designers used natural gas as the energy
source; modern commercial A/C applications have been .designed to use
steam or even hot water as the energy source. However, new designs
coupled with solar energy sources, electric power, or home heating
systems;could be developed. The crux of the problem, however, is
(based on contemporary technology) the acceptability of a toxic and
flammable refrigerant (ammonia).
IV-45
-------
• Home A/C and commercial A/C: Commercial A/C units employing
absorption cycles are available today. Extension of the range
of capacities would be required for commercial designs. For
home systems, designs have been commercially produced and could
be again; the same problems mentioned above for home freezers
and refrigerators exist. However, technologically the switch
is reasonable.
• Auto air conditioning: Several other alternatives have been
seriously investigated for auto A/C; among them are the absorp-
tion cycle and the reverse Brayton cycle.
The absorption cycle does not look very promising for auto
A/C for the following reasons: ' •
a. The absorption cycle requires a heavy duty cycle to
attain an acceptable efficiency; auto A/C operates on
a very low duty cycle.
b. The physical size and weight of current designs that use
air cooling are too large.
c. The absorption cycle is sensitive to the acceleration
and vibration of a mobile unit, particularly in designs
that do not use pumps but rather depend on thermal
convection. However, considerable development work is
being done on the absorption cycle for use in conjunc-
tion with solar heating systems, so this cycle should
be watched closely as a potential alternate for existing
auto A/C's and also for other applications.
IV-46
-------
The reverse Brayton cycle can use air as the refrigerant.
Systems using this cycle have been built for aircraft use, and
development work is being done currently toward extending its
'• • « ' •*-;..'
us6 to other applications. At present, it has a very low co-
efficient of performance, however, it may provide an acceptable
substitute system for auto air'conditioning. Considerable
development is required.
Other: The dessicant system looks sufficiently developed to be
the most cost-effective alternate for dehumidification needs if
R-22 is not acceptable. In addition, this system may provide an-
other alternate to the absorption cycle as a less effective but
viable general air conditioning system.
In summary, therefore, the more cost-effective approaches may
be as follows:
: a. R-22 acceptable: conversion of all systems except auto
air-conditioning to R-22.
b. R-22 not acceptable: (1) containment and recovery of
losses, (2) conversion to absorption cycle with supple-
mental development of the Brayton cycle and dessicant
systems.
Once again, option b.(1) is by far the lowest cost alternative of
the three because it involves the least amount of redesign of
current systems.
3. Solvents and Drycleanlng
a. Fluorocarbon Solvent Applications and Alternatives - In addition to their
thermodynamic advantages of high vapor pressures and low boiling points that
IV-47
-------
make them useful in aerosols, blowing agents, and refrigeration systems,
fluorocarbons also have useful solvent properties. This has been discussed
briefly under aerosol applications. Other major applications of fluorocarbon
solvents are in degreasing and drycleaning; the major compounds used are F-113
and F-ll. The major advantages of these solvents are: nonflammability; high
vapor pressure resulting in quick drying; low heat of vaporization; low order
of toxicity; high density; low surface tension; inertness; purity; and selec-
tive solvency compared to chlorinated solvent alternatives. Due to their
high cost, fluorocarbon solvents are used where these properties are of para-
mount importance or result-in lower unit costs.
Degreasing - Degreasing applications are generally in high technology
areas such as aerospace equipment and electronics. Usually a major concern
is the minimizing of residual surface contaminants. In the electronics indus-
try in particular, high surface cleanliness is imperative for the reliable
operation of minaturized circuitry and semiconductor devices. Where chlori-
nated solvents offer similar safety and solvency characteristics, some industry
3.
contacts expressed concern over traces of the solvent inhibitor left on the
cleaned surfaces; on the other hand, a major supplier of these solvents is of
the opinion this problem has been solved in most applications. The major
chlorinated solvent alternative in this use is inhibited methyl chloroform
(1,1,1-trichloroethane). If the problem of inhibitor residues in semiconduc-
tor applications can be overcome by advanced inhibitor formulations, it is
very likely that the electronics industry could resolve problems of material
Incompatibility (vis-a-vis methyl chloroform) within 2-3 years.
Additives which reduce or eliminate hydrolysis of the solvent.
IV-48
-------
Drycleariing - Domestic use of fluorocarbons in drycleaning is dominated
t
by Dupont's Valclene formulation of F-113. In Europe, F-ll is a common fluoro-
carbon solvent. Prime selling points are F-113's high vapor pressure (leading
to fast drying cycle times) and low toxicity-—both very desirable characteris-
tics in coin-operated machines. The selective solvency of F-113 relative to
perchloroethylene also allows the cleaning of specialty items such as furs
and leather; these materials are now cleaned with the flammable petroleum
solvents. The relatively high cost of Valclene has resulted in a high level
of vapor emission control on all Valclene machines. It is doubtful that sol-
vent losses could be reduced much farther than they have been already without
excessively high control costs.
b. Chlorocarbon Solvent Applications and Alternatives - As outlined previously,
the major applications of chlorinated solvents are in drycleaning, metal de-
greasing, and paint-stripping (methylene chloride only). The character of
emissions from the cleaning applications and the options for emission abate-
ment are outlined below.
Metal Degreasing - Metals soiled with oils, greases, waxes, tars, and
other soils not readily removed with water are often cleaned using organic
solvents—either common hydrocarbons such as kerosene, methyl ethyl ketone,
acetone, mineral spirits, and alcohols; or halogenated hydrocarbons such as
as perchlorethylene and trichlorotrifluoroethane (F-113). This type of
operation is involved in a wide range of industries, the major category
being the metal working industry. This group includes automotive, aircraft,
appliance, electronics, and business and industrial machinery manufacturers.
Other manufacturing industries such'as printing and plastics companies use
these solvents in normal maintenance. Similar usage occurs even in non-
manufacturing industries such as automotive and appliance repair stations.
IV-49
-------
However, most of.'the smaller non-manufacturing uses of metal cleaning solvents
use the less expensive hydrocarbon solvents. It is usually in the larger,
more routine manufacturing industries, where fire safety and recovery ability
are Important factors, that the nonflammable and more expensive halogenated
solvents are used.
Metal degreasing can be roughly classified into two types of operation:
cold cleaning and vapor degreasing. Cold cleaning involves dissolution and
removal of the soil from the work when contacted with liquid solvent by immer-
sion, spraying, or wiping. Vapor degreasing is usually a larger, more cen-
tralized operation; a schematic vapor degreaser is illustrated in Figure IV-4.
The equipment basically consists of an immersion heater in a liquid sump, a
vapor space containing the dense chlorinated solvent vapors, a circumferential
freeboard chiller—a network of water cooled and/or refrigerated tubing—that
contains the vapor layer, and freeboard wall section that further confines the
vapor. The installation also usually possesses a hood or group of lip vents
which recover vapors escaping from the degreaser. In operation, the cold,
soiled work penetrates the solvent vapor space and condenses a continuous flux
of pure solvent on its surface which dissolves and rinses away soil leaving
a clean, hot surface which dries almost immediately upon exiting the degreaser.
Cleaning may be facilitated by immersion or spray contact with liquid solvent.
Larger vapor degreasers are often enclosed and conveyorized and are illustrated
in Figure IV-5. Continuous distillation of solvent from the sump concentrates
soil in the base of the degreaser raising the boiling point of the sump
liquid. When this temperature reaches a certain point, the solvent is dis-
tilled first in the degreaserj then in a more efficient still to further con-
centrate the sludge. Solvent concentration in the ultimate still bottom
IV-50
-------
Water
Jacket
Liquid Solvent
t
f
Work
t t
Solvent
Vapor
. •. .• .'• •' '.,• • '. ': r '. .'.• • •• •. /.. ...•/•".'.••• •' '. '"'.-.";
•» . ':••,...•.•/•.••••.•-•.•; •"•/'••.,-.
;. ... -. •> • • -••' ••••//'•.. •"•••;.-..'''• •• •- '•- -'
Figure IV-4. Basic Vapor Degreaser
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.
Freeboard
J_L
Condensate
Trough
Q\
Heater
IV-51
-------
Conveyor
Condenser
Condensate
Trough
<_n
r-o
/
Heater
Solvent
Vapor
Space
Liquid
Solvent
Sump
Freeboard
Figure IV-5. Enclosed Conveyorized Vapor Degreaser
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.
-------
residue will range from less than 5 percent to 40 percent by volume. Contami-
nated cold cleaning solvents are usually recovered in the same way.
Cold cleaning solvent losses are usually difficult to control since
the operation is often decentralized, individual stations are often small,
and a large part of the loss may be carried off on the work. Vapor de-
greasers are sometimes referred to as a "controlled" method of solvent
cleaning. Losses are localized and usually occur as diffusive or con-
vective vapor loss, dragout of condensed solvent on the work, and sludge
losses due to inadequate distillation or steam stripping. Diffusive and
convective losses are estimated to be 0.125 to 1.0 Ibs/hr per square foot
of air-solvent interface depending on the method of operation. Dragout
losses are impossible to quantify in a general way, but can be very large
if the operation is run incorrectly. Still-bottom losses may represent up
to 20 percent of the losses from a well run open-top degreaser, and propor-
tionately more for an enclosed automated line.
Metal degreasers have already come under heavy pre'ssure to control
emissions. Their first challenge came from Los Angeles County's Rule 66
and similar legislation which attempted to control trichloroethylene
emissions since that compound had been implicated in smog formation. The
industry is under growing pressure from OSHA to reduce work area vapor con-
centrations due to increasingly stringent threshold limit value (TLV) assign-
ments. As a result, many manufacturers have switched from trichloro-
ethylene to another chlorinated solvent, usually a chemically inhibited
form of 1,1,1-trichloroethane. There is an understandable and well justi-
fied reluctance in industry to move to the flammable petroleum solvents,
IV-53
-------
especially since these often come under the same environmental and health
safety regulations. Metal degreasers have also reconsidered alkaline
aqueous washes as a substitute for solvent cleaning. Historically, there
have been good reasons for using the relatively expensive chlorinated solvents,
such as quality of cleaning, metal compatibility, building space constraints,
ease of integration in the manufacturing process, overall cost, and water
pollution control regulations. In some cases, the cost of solvent emission
control may change the relative cost advantage of solvent cleaning vis-a-vis
alkaline washing. Mew chemical formulations have resulted in aqueous washes
more compatible with non-ferrous metals and less conducive to rusting or
corrosion. Still, it is difficult to make general statements on the eco-
nomic viability of switching to aqueous washes especially given the rising
price of fuels for wash drying ovens, more stringent water pollution control,
and site-specific constraints such as available space.
Fortunately, it appears that emissions from solvent degreasers, especially
vapor degreasers, can be significantly reduced with control techniques pres-
ently available at relatively low cost. There are many vendors now selling
auxiliary refrigerated freeboard chillers which can reasonably be expected
to reduce present solvent losses by 40 percent at many locations. Commercial
carbon adsorption units which have been economically viable only on large
systems have also been readily sold which may eliminate losses by 50 percent
or more. Sales impetus for these control devices has come both from regula-
tory requirements and from the economic incentive of recovering valuable
solvent. A third control device which could have significant impact on the
IV-54
-------
most common type of degreaser—the simple open-top unit—is a cover which
must be down when work is not being done. An alarm or servoactuator could
ensure its proper use and the cost would be relatively small. If one
assumes a 15 square foot degreaser open for 3 hrs/day with no work being
processed, using such a cover would save over $800 per year in solvent
2
worth 15-l/2
-------
The last important avenue of control is ensuring proper recovery and
disposal of contaminated solvent. As previously mentioned, distillation
and steam stripping can recover most of the solvent from degreaser wastes.
However, such facilities are not always available or properly employed. In
such cases, central reprocessing could be required. For combinations of
soil and solvent where considerable solvent is unavoidably lost in the liquid
wastes, incineration of the unrecovered solvent would be a feasible approach.
Manufacturers of emission control equipment have related the costs of
control equipment to the cost of solvent loss as a selling point for -that
equipment. On a representative 3' x 51 open-top degreaser solvent losses
2
may average 0.5 Ib/hr ft , or over a 2000 hr. work year, 15,000 Ibs/yr
worth'approximately $2325. A new cover and alarm for this machine might cost
$250, and save $300/yr in solvent losses; since the cover usually comes with
the machine, perhaps $50 might be needed to install an adequate alarm.
Alternatively, a refrigerated freeboard chiller might cost $2000 initially,
$150/yr to run, and-may save $800/yr in solvent loss. Operating separately,
an automatic carbon adsorption unit may cost $9000 initially, $400/yr to
runk and may save $1100/yr in solvent. The basic cost of the degreaser
alone is on the order of $4200.
Although the numbers quoted above are for one specific case, the general
pattern of recovered solvent value recouping the cost of emission control
appears to apply to most degreasing applications. Furthermore^ requiring
some method of control of diffusion losses (by proper initial design and/or
installation of emission control equipment), ensuring proper equipment opera-
tion, and careful disposal of waste sludges, may reduce solvent, emissions
IV-56
-------
from degreasing operations in general by 40-60 percent. A definitive study of
this problem is being conducted for EPA by a group at Dow Chemical. The final
report should be available by the end of 1975 and will include both commercial
information and the results of carefully conducted emission tests which will
quantify the loss reductions that can be obtained with available technology.
It should be emphasized that if methylchloroform (1,1,1-trichloroethane) is
the only domestic halocarbon solvent that must be controlled, then there exists
a wide-variety of alternative halogenated solvents. In many cases trichloro-
ethylene would be a perfectly acceptable substitute were it not for conflicting
smog-related air pollution regulations. Perchloroethylene is another possible
substitute, although its higher boiling point may cause some material or oper-
ating problems. Methylene chloride is another possibility, although it may be
too active a solvent for many applications. For applications requiring selec-
tive solvency, lack of residue, lower temperatures, or otherwise able to justify
a higher-priced cleaning agent, there exists a variety of fluorocarbon based
solvents; the major one is F-113.
IV-57
-------
Drycleaning, - Drycleaning is the use of organic solvents to clean tex-
tile products of stubborn soils or clean textiles which would be damaged by
aqueous laundering or high drying temperatures. The major solvents used do-
mestically are perchloroethylene and the petroleum drycleaning solvents:
Stoddard solvent and a solvent mixture known as 140-F. Various chemical and
equipment vendors, industry associations, and researchers have estimated
that 40 percent to 70 percent of domestic drycleaning is done with perchloro-
ethylene; we estimate the fraction to be 65-70 percent at present and his-
toric trends will enlarge that market share in the future. Of minor impor-
tance domestically is Dupont's "Valclene" drycleaning solvent based on F-113.
Use of this solvent has been discussed in the previous section on fluoro-
carbons. European drycleaners use, in addition to the solvents already men-
tioned, trichloroethylene and F-ll. Trichloroethylene tends to bleed dyes
from acetate fabrics and is therefore unpopular in this country. Until
1928, gasoline was the major domestic drycleaning solvent; it was then su-
perseded by Stoddard solvent—a less flammable and odorfree petroleum based
solvent. An awareness of the fire hazard of petroleum solvents led to the
development of less flammable 140-F and the adoption of chlorinated solvents-
initially carbon tetrachloride. Carbon tetrachloride in turn has been re-
placed by less toxic perchloroethylene which is now used in 65-70 percent
of domestic drycleaning; the balance is still largely held by the less ex-
pensive petroleum solvents. Local zoning restrictions and safety codes
have and should continue the trend towards halogenated solvents; we under-
stand that no petroleum solvent based equipment has been made in the last
IV-5 8
-------
several years although some is still being sold from inventories. Charac-
teristics of cleaning solvents are given in Table IV-6.
Approximately 70 percent of the perchloroethylene used in drycleaning
is consumed by commercial establishments as opposed to industrial operations.
Commercial drycleaning equipment can be divided into three categories:
transfer type, dry-to-dry type, and coin-operated. The transfer type ma-
chine, with cleaning capacity typically between 20 and 120 pounds, is the
design most prevalent today. Figure IV-6 illustrates schematically the op-
eration of such a unit.
In a transfer machine, the clothes are washed in a recirculating sol-
vent stream; an in-line filter continuously removes, impurities from the sol-
vent. After washing for a predetermined length of time, the clothes are
spun dry—this process of centrifugally draining excess solvent from the
work is known in the trade as "extraction." After extracting the bulk of
the solvent, the clothes are removed from the washer-extractor and stripped
of most of the remaining solvent in a hot air dryer. Steam-heated air cir-
culates past the tumbling clothes, over a water-cooled condenser, and back
to the heater with some fraction bled to an exhaust. Periodically the
filter must be replaced with a fresh cartridge or load of powder adsorbent.
To recover solvent from the wet filter powder (or "muck") most often gen-
erated by commercial drycleaners, the waste is steam heated and vaporized
solvent is collected by a water-cooled condenser. Conscientious drycleaners
also distill a fraction of their solvent volume to remove soils not ad-
sorbed by their filters.
IV-59
-------
TABLE IV-6 CHARACTERISTICS OF DRYCLEAKING SOLVENTS
Property
Flash Point (TCC), °F
Initial Boiling Point, °F
Dry End Point, °F
Specific Gravity, @ 60 °F
Density, Ib/gal
Aromatic Content, Vol. %
Corrosiveness
Heat of Vaporization, Btu/lb
Toxicity (TLV) ppm
Odor
Color
Vapor Density (Air=1.00)
140-F
138.2
357.8 -
396
0.789
6.57
12.1
None
•v,500b
200
Mild
Water White
1.0
140-F
R-66a
143
356
400
0.8063
6.604
7.0
None
•v-500b
200
Mild
Water white
1.0
Stoddard
100
305
350
*
0.779
6.49
11.6
None
•v,500b
200
Sweet
Water White
1.0
Stoddard
R-66*
108
316
356
a. 788
6.56
5.9
Hone
•vSOO6
200
Sweet
Water White
1.0
Pe rch 1 o roe thy 1 ene
non-flammable &
non-combustible
250
254
1.623
13.55
0
Slight on metal
90
100
Like ether
Water White
5.8
F-113
non-flammable &
non-combustible
117.6
not known
1.574
13.16
0
none
63
1000
Like CCL4
Water White
6.3
M
8 This refers to the "old" Los Angeles Rule 66 solvent regulation, which allowed up to 8% aromatic content.
k This value can be expected to vary depending as it does on the exact composition of the solvent.
Source: Preliminary data from EPA report on drycleaning being prepared by.TBW, Inc., Environmental Services.
-------
Air Vent
Dirty
Clothes
<
Air Vent
Punp
Clean
Damp
Cloches
Washer/Extractor
Fresh
Air
Dry
Clothes
Figure IV-6 Transfer-Type Drycleaning Syste
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.
Dryer
-------
In the "dry-to-dry" design washing, extraction, and drying all occur
in the same machine. This design has the advantages of eliminating .the
transfer of wet clothes, eliminating a labor consuming operation and pro-
viding an opportunity to diminish solvent losses. In practice, many dry-
cleaners feel such a design reduces their throughput and at peak periods
they often use the machine just for washing and transfer wet clothes to a ,
separate dryer.
Solvent losses in transfer-type drycleaning operations occur at six
points in the system: at the,washer-extractor, in transfer to .the dryer,
at the dryer, as residual solvent in the clothes, in filter .wastes, and
still bottoms. The amount lost at each point "varies widely'between in-
stallations. Competent operation and maintenance of equipment is a big
factor in determining the solvent losses, or the corollary "mileage" ob-
tained in use. The results of' a 1975 survey by the International Fabricare
Institute have been summarized in a chart (see Figure IV-7) of production
efficiency or mileage in terms of pounds of clothes cleaned per drum of solvent,
Solvent loss at the washer can occur because of leaking equipment such
as deficient seals, or by convection losses incurred when the door is open-
ed and the system is ventilated. Losses at the dryer can occur for those
same reasons and also through pressure-equalizing vent losses, insufficient
cooling of the condenser, and inefficient recovery of hot liquid solvent
(e.g., collection in open buckets). Filter losses are increased by not
draining cartridge type filters or—the more common cause—by inadequate
distillation of powdered filter waste sludges. National Institute of Dry-
IV-62
-------
70-1
•0-
SO-
r
f
B
PETROLEUM
7O-
«,.
90-
I
SO
so-
n
KNCMUMETHVLENE
i
n n
n
Figure IV- 7. Solvent Mileage (in Ibs of Clothes Cleaned/55 gal. of Solvent)
Source: "Results of membership survey of drycleaning operations," I FT Special Reporter 3-1
Jan. -Feb. 1975, Published by International Fab ri care Institute.
-------
cleaning estimates of filter losses are given in Table IV-7. The same prob-
lem of inadequate distillation causes solvent loss in still bottoms; however,
distillation is an infrequently practiced technique with most commercial dry-
cleaners so those losses are correspondingly small.
The predominant method of solvent loss control (aside from regular main-
tenance of good operation) is the use of compact carbon adsorption systems.
These units ar.e typically sized to be steam stripped at the end of each
day, and, if well maintained, can be expected to pay for themselves within
three years in recovered solvent value. The carbon adsorption unit is usually
connected with floor vents, and often the washer and dryer ventilation ducts
to recover as much of the free solvent vapors as possible. The emission re-
ductions obtainable with these-systems are being quantified in a definitive
study of drycleaning emission being conducted by a group at TRW for the
EPA. The final report of this study should be available by the end of the
-V "
year. . .-,•••
An interesting perspective on the possibilities for emission reduction
is provided by considering the use of F-113 in drycleaning. This solvent
is far more expensive than perchloroethylene, and thus high loss rates can-
o
not be economically tolerated. As a result, solvent mileage in Valclene
(F-113) machines is typically 30,000 Ibs/drum versus 6,900 pounds per drum
for most percnloroethylene installations. Valclene is very volatile so
losses from equipment could be very high unless good control systems were
provided. These units are typically on total recycle of both solvent and
air. Pressure equalization is often provided by elastomeric expansion cham-
%
bers. Solvent recovery in the dryer is enhanced by a refrigerated condenser.
a.
Registered trademark for DuPont's formulation of F-113 dry cleaning fluid.
IV-64
-------
Table IV-7. SOLVENT LOSSES IN PEBCHLOROETHYLENE PLANTS
(in pounds of pare per 1000 pounds of cleaning)
Point of loss
Retained In filter muck:
(a) Rigid tube filter - no cooker
(b) Rigid tube filter - auck cooked
(c) Regenerative filter - wick cooked
. Retained in paper cartridges:
(a) Drained
(b) Dried in cabinet vented to adsorber
Retained in still residue
Plants without
vapor adsorber
125
45
20
18
—
16
Plants with
vapor adsorber
125
45
20
18
12
16
Source: Martin, A.R. and Fred Loibl. "Perc Vapor Emission - How to Estimate It",
The NID Technical Bulletin, T-471. May, 1971. National Institute of
Drycleaning.
IV-65
-------
Carbon adsorption is normally provided. If these same measures were applied
to perchloroethylene units, the solvent mileage should be as low or lower
i
than that obtained with Valclene due to perchloroethylene's lower volatility.
However, there is a penalty for such good control; Valclene units generally
cost 25 percent more than comparable perchlor'oethVlene machines equipped with
carbon adsorption units. .•.->••
The cost of solvent in proportion to the other costs of a typical commer-
cial drycleaner is only a small fraction of the total (less than 10%). How-
ever, a potentially significant cost may be fines imposed for not complying
with OSHA regulations on maximum allowable vapor concentrations,.
A number of drycleaning plants now operating do-not>meet'these ILV
criteria; as these installations come into Compliance, per unit solvent con-
sumption by the industry may decrease since some measures that control ambient
vapor concentrations also reduce total solvent loss..
$ .
The drycleaning industry will be'hard pressed to meet the demands of
OSHA and the EPA. Operation of their 'equipment is4traditionally poor as
indicated by the average solvent mileage. The industry is experiencing
hard times and is short of cash "for tlew investments, even for such remunera-
tive investments as: carbon adsorption units. 'Equipment sales to the indus-
try have plummeted in the last several years. There is a glut'of 'old, used,
cheap equipment on the market. Emission control will be just one more bur-
den the industry will find hard to bear.
In summation, it appears that with reasonable care and attention, most
drycleaners can reduce their solvent losses by about 50 percent through
achieving the solvent mileage performance now reached by only 10 percent of
the industry. Emission rates could conceivably be cut to 20 percent of their
present level if Valclene emission control'technology were adapted to
IV-66
-------
perchloroethylene units at the expense of higher capital .and operating costs.
In the event that one or both pf these solvents had to be eliminated,
Valclene could substitute for perchloroethylene in all applications and the
reverse substitution could occur in all applications except where the aggres-
sive solvency of perchloroethylene would forbid its use (e.g., in leather
cleaning). The petroleum solvents can achieve, the same cleaning results as
either of these; however, the associated fire hazard would be a serious im-
pediment to reversion to the older technology—both because of existing
fire regulations and industry experience. These solvents also have other
environmental problems relating to photochemical smog formation.
4. Foam Blowing Agents - Halocarbons are used in the manufacture of foams
made from polyurethane, polystyrene, and polyolefins. They are primarily used
as the blowing agent which forms the cellular structure. The use of halocar-
bons as blowing agents in polyolefin foam manufacture is quite small in com-
parison to their use in polyurethane and polystyrene foams. The most com-
monly used halocarbons are trichlorofluoromethane (F-ll) which is the agent
primarily used for polyurethane foam manufacture, and dichlorodifluoromethane
(F-12) which is used for both polyurethane and polystyrene foams. Methylene
chloride is used to a minor extent in.the manufacture of flexible polyurethane
fo%ams as a blowing agent but: it also finds use'as a cleaning solvent in the
manufacture of polyurethanes.
a. Plastic Foam Types - The most important foam categories which use halo-
carbon blowing agents are rigid polyurethane, flexible polyurethane, extruded
polystyrene, and expanded polystyrene. .
The use of halocarbons in plastic foam manufacture is summarized in
Table IV-8.
Rigid polyurethane foam - This is a major application for halocarbon
IV-67
-------
Table IV-8. DESCRIPTION OF USE OF HALOCARBONS IN PLASTIC FOAM MANUFACTURE
<
oo
Halocarbon
typically
used
F-ll»12,113,
114
F-ll
F-ll
Methylene
chloride
F-12, Methyl
chloride
F-ll, 12
F-114,12
Methyl chloride
fluorocarbon
Type of
plastic
foam
Low density
rigid poly-
urethane
High density
rigid poly-
urethane
Flexible
polyurethane
Extruded
polystyrene
EPS (expanded
polystyrene)
Poly olefin
Extruded poly-
styrene board
Type of
fabrication
process
Pour (bun process)
spray in place
frothing
Pour
Pour
Extrusion
Steam chest
molding
Extrusion
Extrusion
Location of
fabrication
process
Plant , on-site
Plant
Plant (slab
stock or
molded shapes)
Plant
Plant
Plant
Plant
Typical
product
application
Insulation
Furniture
parts
Cushioning,
bonded foam
fabrics
Food trays
Packaging,
insulation
Packaging,
insulation
Insulation
Alternative
blowing
agent
Water/CQ2
Water/C02
Water/CO
Pentane
Pentane
azodicarbami.de
aliphatic hydrocarbons
nitrogen
methylene chloride/
hydrocarbons
Also used as cleaning solvent in urethane foam operation
Source: Arthur D. Littlej Inc., estimates based on trade publications and industry contacts.
-------
blowing agents. F-ll is the blowing agent most frequently used. The rigid
polyurethane foams are used primarily f6r insulation. Typical densities of
these foams are about 2 pounds per cubic foot. They are either fabricated
in-plant (using the "bun" or continuous slab process described below) or on-
site using spray techniques.
Minor quantities of'rigid polyurethane foams are also made for special
applications by the frothing process which uses F-12, F-113 (1,1,2-
trichloro-l,2,2,-trifluoroethane) and F-114 (sym-dichlorotetrafluoroethane.
Another minor application for somewhat higher density rigid poly-
urethane foams (8 to 30 pounds per cubic foot) is in the fabrication of
furniture parts. In this application, the halocarbon blowing agents are
less frequently used than alternative blowing agent systems.
For the sake of clarity, we have included all these alternative
fabrication methods in the rigid polyurethane foam category. The major
component in this category (roughly 80%) are the 2 pounds per cubic foot
insulation foams.
Flexible polyurethane foam - The flexible polyurethane foams are
primarily used for cushioning and carpet uriderlay applications. The
blowing agent used for flexible polyurethane foam can be either of several
fluorocarbons (although F-ll is the most widely used) or to a minor ex-
tent methylene chloride. The halocarbon blowing agents are primarily
used as a supplement to water/CO,, blowing agent systems.
Extruded polystyrene foams - Extruded polystyrene sheet, film and
board stock use halocarbon blowing agents. Extruded sheet products,
which represent the major portion of this category, use F-12 as the prin-
ciple blowing agent.
IV-
-------
Hydrocarbon blowing agents, such as n-pentane, were traditionally
used for extruded foam sheet products. Due primarily to fire hazards
associated with the manufacturing process, there has, since 1967, been
a shift toward the use of halocarbon blowing agents for the manufacture
of these products. Rigid extruded board stock uses either methyl chloride
or fluorocarbon blowing agents. Densities of these products are
typically in the 2-7 pounds per cubic foot range. (Higher density ex-
truded foams are also made for wood substitutes but these typically use
solid rather than gaseous or liquid chemical blowing agents.)
Extruded foam sheet is used primarily for disposable dinnerware and
packaging applications. Rigid polystyrene board stock is used for pack-
aging and insulation applications.
Expanded polystyrene foam - The term "expanded polystyrene" (EPS)
usually refers to a 1-4 pounds per cubic foot foam used for such products
as hot drink cups, flotation block, ice-chests, and packaging material.
It is made by a molding process (rather than by extrusion). The major
blowing agent used for EPS foam manufacture is n-pentane or isopentane.
but F-ll is being used to an increasing extent.
Polyolefins - Polyolefin foams include both polyethylene and poly--
propylene although polyethylene is much more frequently used. The low
density polyethylene foams were first introduced by the Dow Chemical
Company in 1958. They are used in considerably smaller quantities than
the polyurethanes and polystyrene foams because the processing methods
are somewhat more expensive. .
There are two broad categories of polyolefin foams. -The low density
foams (less than 10 pounds per cubic foot) are made by an extrusion pro-
cess and the products are sold as sheet, board, and profiles. Both F-114
IV-70
-------
and F-12 are used as blowing agents. The high density polyolefin foams
do not use halocarbon blowing agents.
Typical applications for the low density polyolefin foams are pack-
age cushioning, gasketing and sealing, marine buoyancy products, and
expansion joints in building construction.
b. Processes for Foam Manufacture - Manufacturing processes for the four
major foam types are discussed below.
Rigid and flexible polyurethane foams - Both rigid and flexible poly-
urethane foams are formed by mixing two or more reactive liquid ingredients
together. The chemical reaction which results forms a polymeric structure.
The incorporation of a blowing agent (or gas evolved from the polymeriza-
tion) provides the cellular structure. The ingredients are mixed in a
foam machine which consists of a pumping unit capable of accurately meter-
ing two or more components and a continuous mixer capable of blending and
efficiently mixing the various components. Both the pumping and mixing
functions are critical to the proper manufacture of polyurethane foams.
The equipment used for mixing and dispensing both rigid and,flexible films
is quite, similar. After dispensing from the metering unit, the physical
means used to contain the foaming mixture differs widely.
Rigid polyurethane foams can be manufactured by a batch process, by
a continuous slab or "bun" process, by foaming or frothing in place, and
by spraying. Of these methods, continuous slab production and foaming
in place are the most common. Continuous production of rigid foam slab
stock (commonly used for insulation) involves pouring the liquid mixture
as a thin layer onto a continuously moving conveyor where it foams to
form a continuous block of foam. After oven curing, the foam is sliced
IV-71
-------
to specific thicknesses by a variety of mechanical methods. Occasionally
facing materials used as surface skins are continuously applied to rigid
foams during fabrication by the continuous slab process. Foaming in place
involves pouring the liquid mixture of foam components after mixing di-
rectly into a cavity (such as the walls of a refrigerator or building).
After chemical reaction, the foam expands to completely fill the cavity.
Occasionally a frothing procedure is used in foaming in-place applications.
In this procedure, a high pressure mixture is utilized and frothing occurs
as the blowing agent (typically F-113 or 114) contained in the foam mix-
ture vaporizes on emerging from the dispenser due to the reduction in
pressure.
Sprayed polyurethane foams are often used for on-site application of
rigid polyurethane foams. Here the liquid ingredients emerge from the
dispenser as a spray rather than a continuous stream. Consequently the
losses of halocarbon blowing agent during foam formation are somewhat
higher than for the other rigid foaming methods.
Flexible polyurethane foams are made by either a molding process to
form such items as automotive safety pads, sun visors, and cushions, or
a continuous slab ("bun") process which resembles the continuous slab
process used for rigid foams. Conveyors range from 50-100 feet in length.
After forming the slabs are cured with radiant heat or steam.
The majority of flexible polyurethane foams are formulated so that
an open-celled structure results. In some portion of the cases, they are
put through a wringer-like device to crush a portion of the cell walls in
IV-72
-------
and F-12 are used as blowing agents. The high density polyolefin foams
do not use halocarbon blowing agents.
Typical applications for the low density polyolefin foams are pack-
age cushioning, gasketing and sealing, marine buoyancy products, and
expansion joints in building construction,
b. Processes for Foam Manufacture - Manufacturing processes for the four
major foam .types are discussed below.
Rigid and flexible polyurethane foams - Both rigid and flexible poly-
urethane foams are formed by mixing two or more reactive liquid ingredients
together. The chemical reaction which results forms a polymeric structure.
The incorporation of a blowing agent (or gas evolved from the polymeriza-
tion) provides the cellular structure. The ingredients are mixed in a
foam machine which consists of a pumping unit capable of accurately meter-
ing two or more components and a continuous mixer capable of blending and
efficiently mixing the various components. Both the pumping and mixing
functions are critical to the proper manufacture of polyurethane foams.
The equipment used for mixing and dispensing both rigid and.flexible films
is quite, similar. After dispensing from the metering unit, the physical
means used to contain the foaming mixture differs widely.
Rigid polyurethane foams can be manufactured by a batch process, by
a continuous slab or "bun" process, by foaming or frothing in place, and
by spraying. Of these methods, continuous slab production and foaming
in place are the most common. Continuous production of rigid foam slab
stock (commonly used for insulation) involves pouring the liquid mixture
as a thin layer onto a continuously moving conveyor where it foams to
form a continuous block of foam. After oven curing, the foam is sliced
IV-71
-------
to specific thicknesses by a variety of mechanical methods. Occasionally
facing materials used as surface skins are continuously applied to rigid
foams during fabrication by the continuous slab process. Foaming in place
involves 'pouring the liquid mixture of foam components after mixing di-
rectly into a cavity (such as the walls of a refrigerator or building).
After chemical reaction, the foam expands to completely fill the cavity.
Occasionally a frothing procedure is used in foaming in-place applications.
In this procedure, a high pressure mixture is utilized and frothing occurs
as the blowing agent (typically F-113 or 114) contained in the foam mix-
ture vaporizes on emerging from the dispenser due to the reduction in
pressure.
Sprayed polyurethane foams are often used for on-site application of
rigid polyurethane foams. Here the liquid ingredients emerge from the
dispenser as a spray rather than a continuous stream. Consequently the
losses of halocarbon blowing agent during foam formation are somewhat
higher than for the other rigid foaming methods.
Flexible polyurethane foams are made by either a molding process to
form such items as automotive safety pads, sun visors, and cushions, or
a continuous slab ("bun") process which resembles the continuous slab
process used for rigid foams. Conveyors range from 50-100 feet in length.
After forming the slabs are cured with radiant heat or steam.
The majority of flexible polyurethane foams are formulated so that
an open-celled structure results. In some portion of the cases, they are
put through a wringer-like device to crush a portion of the cell walls in
IV-72
-------
order to form an open cell structure which enhances "breathabillty" of
the foams for cushioning applications.
Carbon dioxide, formed by the chemical reaction of water with the
isocyanate component of the liquid mixture, is the most commonly used
blowing agent for flexible polyurethane foams. Halocarbons are used
alone or in combination with the water/CO- blowing agent system to pro-
duce foams with more desirable physical properties (such as lower density
and softer "feel"). .
Methylene chloride is used to some extent as a blowing agent in
flexible foam fabrication. It is also widely used throughout the poly-
urethane foam industry as a cleaning solvent for flushing foam heads and
• /
for general equipment cleanup. It is also used as a thinner to reduce
the viscosity of unreacted urethane prepolymer components and in opera-
tions which bond flexible polyurethane foams to fabric. Its high vola-
tility causes it to be removed from the foam during heat curing.
Extruded polystyrene - The raw materials for manufacture of extruded
polystyrene foams are polystyrene pellets and blowing agent. The poly-
styrene pellets are fed to the extruder which consists essentially of a
screw in a heated barrel. The extruder melts and plasticizes the pellets
into a molten mass. The blowing agent is introduced into a mixing zone
along the screw of the extruder. A typical blowing agent injection sys-
tem is shown in Figure IV-8. The mixture of molten polystyrene resin and
dissolved gas is then passed into a second extruder whose function is to
reduce the temperature of the mixture and finally extrude it into the
IV-7 3
-------
BLOWING AGENT INJCCTION SYSTEM
VAF'OR EQUALIZING LINE
(FOR KILLING PURPOSES)
BULK STORAGE
TANK
FOH BLOWING AGENT
V////7///////777////////Y///
FILL LINE
PLUNGCR INJECTION
PUMP
Figure IV-8.
Schematic Diagram of System Used for Injecting
Blowing Agent into Extruder for Production of
Foamed Polystyrene Sheet
Source: Plastics Technology. October, 1969, P.. 46.
IV- 7 /i
-------
shape of a hollow tube into the atmosphere over a cone shaped expansion
die. Cell formation is completed within the walls of this hollow tube.
The cooled tube is then slit to specific widths and taken up on large
diameter rolls which are stored for several days to permit air to diffuse
into the cells. Most of the release of blowing agent occurs at the plant
site.
To fabricate the most common products made from extruded polystyrene
foam, meat trays and egg cartons, the sheet is heated between two banks
.. "* " ' . ' •' '
of radiant heaters to a semi-molten state and then formed into the shape
of the final product in male or female molds using vacuum.
Extruded polystyrene board was originally developed by the Dow
Chemical Company. This product, known as Styrofoam® was introduced for
military applications during World War II and was used for commercial
insulation and floral foam applications thereafter. Typical densities
are 1.7 pounds per cubic foot.
Early patents3 describe the foam board extrusion equipment as a
holding vessel with a bottom port and a conveyor with internal mixing to
prevent channeling. The mixture is discharged into a tunnel through
which the foam expands and is shaped.
Expandable polystyrene (EPS) -.Typical applications for EPS foams
are for insulation board for the construction industry, flotation block,
packaging dunnage, and thread spools. The products typically have den-
sities ranging from 1-4 Ibs/cu.ft.
, O.K. ( to Dow Chemical) U.S. Patent 2,450,436 (1948), and
2,515,250 (1950).
IV-75
-------
These products are made from an EPS bead which has a density of
approximately 40 pcf and contains 5.5-7.5% of a volatile blowing agent.
Expansion is carried out by feeding beads to a pre-expander into which
controlled live steam is also fed. The pre-expander is a simple insu-
lated cylindrical drum having an agitator to the vertical axis and a dis-
charge chute near the top. It may range anywhere in size from 10^-200
gallons, depending on the article to be made. Beads are also expanded
by a combination of heat and vacuum. After pre-expansion, the beads are
conditioned by passing through an air conveyor to bins or bags where sur-
face moisture evaporates and the internal/external pressure differential
due to the blowing agent normalizes, the beads c'ool and harden, and are
then stored for between 24-36 hours. .
In molding the beads to their final shape, they are charged to a
mold using either air or gravity and the mold is clamped shut. Steam is
directly injected into the steam chest surrounding the beads and causes
them to expand, fill the interstices between the beads, and finally to
fuse or weld together.- The mold is then coaled by spraying atomized
water or by exhausting using a vacuum pump or jet eductor. Cycle times
vary between 6 seconds and 4 minutes, depending on the shape and wall
thickness. Six seconds might be a typical time for molded cups; thicker
parts used for insulating blacks, for example, might have cycle times of
up to 4 minutes.
The blowing agent is incorporated into the beads either by a steep-
ing process or during the suspension polymerization process.
IV-76
-------
As indicated previously, pentane is the blowing agent most commonly
used but recently expandable beads containing F-ll have become commercially
available and are used to a minor extent.
Polyolefins - The low density foams are primarily made by an extru-
sion process similar to that used for extruded polystyrene foams. Plas-
tic pellets are fed to an extruder and the blowing agent (typically F-114
or F-12) is injected along a low pressure section of, the extruder screw.
The molten polymer and thoroughly dispersed blowing agent are then ex-
truded to the atmosphere via a die of appropriate shape. Expansion (cell
formation) takes place and a cell,structure is formed. Most of the blpw-
ing agent leaves the polymer during this step.
c. Emissions to the Atmosphere - The quantity of halocarbon lost to the
atmosphere during manufacture, subsequent field use, and ultimate dis-
posal of plastic foams varies greatly. Listed below are some of the
factors which must be considered: 4 .
• Type of foam and blowing agent,
• Open versus closed cell content,
• Solubility of halocarbon in the plastic,
• Density and cell structure of the foam,
• Surface area-to-volume ratio of the fabricated foam product,
• Losses during manufacture (highly dependent upon manufacturing
process), and
• Rate of diffusion of specific halpcarbons through the plastic
matrix, highly dependent on whether or not the foam is enclosed
during field use.
IV-7 7
-------
• Ultimate disposal method and lifetime of the fabricated foam
product.
Our estimate of halocarbon losses to the atmosphere from plastic
foams is shown in Table IV-9. We have considered the factors listed above
and have relied on technical publications, industry contacts as well as
our in-house knowledge of the manufacture, field application and ultimate
disposal of plastic foams.
The figures shown in Table IV-9 should be regarded as rough estimates.
Since it was necessary to include a variety of foam applications into
broad categories, product lifetime is highly variable and ultimate dis-
posal methods differ widely. Our general method of estimating losses of
halocarbons to the atmosphere from plastic foams is described below. The
column numbers refer to Table IV-9;
• In Column 1 we have listed the total quantity of foam used based
on estimates of 1973 foam production.
• Column 2 lists our estimate of the percentage of that total foam
quantity which uses halocarbons. This percentage was applied to
the total in order to derive the total weight of foam using halo-
carbons shown in Column 3.
• Column 5 is an estimate of the total quantity of halocarbon used,
based on the percentage of halocarbon commonly used in manufactur-
ing foams, as shown in Column 4.
• In Column 6 we have estimated the percentage of halocarbon which
is lost to the atmosphere during manufacture, field use, and ulti-
mate disposal.
IV-7 8
-------
Table IV-9. ESTIMATED U.S. USE OF HALOCARBONS IN PLASTIC FOAM MANUFACTURE - 1973
(millions of pounds)
(i)
(2)
(3)
(4) (5) (6) (7,)
Percent of halo- Est. percent Eat. quantity
Halocarbons Est.percent Weight of foam carbon commonly . of halocarbon of halocarbon
Type of primarily Total quantity using halo- using halocarbon used in form- Quantity of halo- lost to the lost to atmos-
plastic foam used of foam produced carbons blowing agent ulation carbon used atmosphere3 phere
Rigid poly-
ur ethane
Flexible
polyurethane
Extruded
polystyrene
sheet-
Expanded
polystyrene
(EPS)
Extruded
polystyrene
board
Poly ole fin
Total
F-11,12
frothing
F-11,113
mixture
methylenc
chloride
F-12
F-12
Methyl
chloride
fluorocarbon
F-114,12
350
960
140
190
35
11
1686
85
55
50
5
100
65
-
300
530
70
10
35
7
952
15
7
7
6
10
16
-
44.8
35.4
4.9
0.5
3.5
1-1.
88
20
95
95
90
100
95
-
9.0
32.9
4.7
0.4
3.5
1.1
51
-J
Although almost all of these emissions occur immediately, figure given Is for emissions within ten years.
Methylene chloride used both as blowing agent and as solvent.
Source: Modern Plastics, January, 1975, and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
All of the halocarboh will eventually be lost to the atmosphere. If
the foam product is ultimately disposed of by incineration, the halo-
carbons will be destroyed before leaving the incinerator. , In estimating
the atmospheric losses shown in Column 6, we have arbitrarily set a 10-
year time limit. The estimated total quantity of halocarbon lost to the
atmosphere within 10 years is shown in Column 7 and is based on multiply-
ing the estimated percentage halocarbon loss (shown in Column 6) by the
quantity of halocarbon used (shown in Column 5).
In Table IV-10 we have prepared an estimate of specific halocarbon
losses to the atmosphere (within a 10-year period) based on 1973 produc-
tion figures. Probably 90 percent of the losses occur during manufacture
and the first year thereafter.
Rigid polyurethane foams - It is important to the manufacture of
rigid polyurethane foams to minimize losses of blowing agent since the
presence of blowing agent in foam insulation is critical to maintaining
the low heat transfer coefficient which is a major asset of the rigid
polyurethane insulation foams.
a
Detailed studies have been carried out to predict the diffusion of
halocarbon from rigid polyurethane foams, and to predict the concentra-
tion of halocarbon remaining in the foam cells. These studies have shown
that the rate of diffusion of halocarbon out of the foam is smaller than
the rate of diffusion of oxygen and nitrogen into the cells. Other
important factors affecting loss of halocarbons to the atmosphere are:
ambient temperature during use; surface area to volume ratio of the foam
a
Cuddihy, E.F. and J. Moacanin, Cellular Plastics, pub. no. 1462., National
Academy of Science (1967).
IV-80
-------
Table IV-10.
ESTIMATED U.S. FLUOROCARBON AND CHLOROCARBON EMISSIONS FROM FOAM BLOWING
(based on 1973 production)
Type of
plastic foam
Rigid
polyurethane
Flexible
polyurethane
Extruded
polystyrene
sheet
Expanded
polystyrene
(EPS)
Extruded
polystyrene boan
Polyolefin
Total
Estimated total
quantity of halo-
carbon lost to
atmosphere within
10 years
(millions of pounds)
-9-5
32.9
4.6
0.5
3.5
1.1
52.1
Type of
halocarbon
typically
used
F-ll.
F-12,113,
114 - frothing
F-ll, 113
methylene
chloride
F-12
F-12
methyl chloride
fluorocarbon
F-114
F-12
-
Estimated
percentage
distribution
90
10
70
30
100
100
NA
60
40
-
Estimated
quantities
of halocarbon
lost to atmosphere
(million of pounds)
8.6
0.9
22.9
10.0
4.6
0.5
<3.5
0.7
0.4
52.1
<
CO
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
product; and the extent to which the foam surfaces are exposed to ambient
«a
conditions. Norton has studied the fraction of FC-11 which remains in
the cells of 1" thick slabs of a 2.2 pcf rigid polyurethane foam aged in
air 25°C with both surfaces exposed for time periods from 50 days to 20
years. There is, of course, a distribution of F-ll concentration through
the thickness of the foam. Cells at the outer edges lose F-ll very
quickly, but after 20 years roughly 12 percent of the original FC-11 still
remains in the cells in the center of the foam. In our estimate shown
in Column 6 of Table IV-9, we have assumed that the combination of manu-
facturing, field use, and disposal losses during the initial 10-year life
of an average rigid polyurethane foam product are no greater than 20 percent.
Flexible polyurethane foams - We estimate that halocarbons are used
in the manufacture of roughly 54.percent of all flexible foams. (Roughly
50 percent of flexible slab foam production and 65 percent of flexible
molded foam production use halocarbon blowing agents. The ratio of slab
to molded foam production is roughly 3/1.)
Unlike rigid foams, the presence of open cells is critical to the
applications for which flexible polyurethanes are used (cushioning and
carpet underlay are examples). This results in rapid loss of halocarbon
from the interior of the cells. The major portion of halocarbon loss
occurs during manufacture or shortly thereafter. Furthermore, the flex-
ible polyurethane foams are more exposed to ambient conditions during
field use and on the average probably have a shorter product lifetime
than typical rigid polyurethane foam products. We estimate that 95
aNorton, F.J., Journal of Cellular Plastics, January, 1967, P. 23.
IV-8 2
-------
of the halocarbon used to make flexible foams escapes to the
atmosphere within 10 years.
Extruded polystyrene foams - Roughly 50 percent of extruded polystyrene
foam sheet production utilizes halocarbon blowing agents. Roughly 85 percent
of the blowing agent is lost during manufacture and we estimate that another
10 percent is lost during field use. Thus, essentially all (95 percent) of
this halocarbon is lost to the atmosphere within 10 years. It is impor-
tant to note that there is an increasing trend toward the substitution of
halocarbon blowing agents for pentane which in the past was commonly used
for extruded foam sheet. The percentage of all extruded polystyrene foam
which uses halocarbon blowing agents will probably increase over the next
several years.
Expanded polystyrene - Only a small percentage of EPS foam currently
uses halocarbon blowing agents; however, we estimate that 90 percent of this
quantity is lost to the atmosphere within 10 years.
Extruded polystyrene board - Dow's Styrofoam is the only domestic
extruded polystyrene foam board. They consider the identification and
concentration of blowing agents to be proprietary information. It is
known, however, that fluorocarbons are used as blowing agents in addition
to or in combination with methyl chloride. The exact quantity and type
of fluorocarbon are not known. We estimate that the weight of blowing
agent is less than 10 percent of the weight of Styrofoam production.
IV-83
-------
d. Alternatives to the Use of Halocarbons
Rigid polyurethane foams - The presence of residual halocarbon within
the interior of the cells in rigid polyurethane foam results in a heat
transmission rate which is roughly one-half of that which would be experi-
»,
enced if the cells were filled with air. This fact is of primary impor-
tance in the use of halocarbon blowing agents for polyurethane manufacture.
These materials can be manufactured using the water/CO- blowing agent sys-
tem but the rigid polyurethane foams would then lose their economic ad-
vantage over other insulating systems. We are not aware of any satis-
factory substitute for halocarbon blowing agents for rigid polyurethane
foams which will produce a foam of adequate structural and thermal pro-
perties.
Flexible polyurethanes - The halocarbons are primarily used as auxil-
iary blowing agents in the formation of flexible polyurethane foams. The
carbon dioxide which results from the interaction between water and the
isocyanate component of the active mixture is the primary blowing agent
in most commercially manufactured flexible foams. The use of auxiliary
blowing agents allows foams with lower density and lower compression loads
to be made than those which are made using the water/CO~ system alone.
Vacuum blowing has been proposed as a method for eliminating blowing
agents in flexible foam production. It is also possible to utilize inert
gases as blowing agents. Aroyl azides which decompose to give nitrogen
have also been investigated as well as acetic acid and combinations
of alcohols and strong acids. Thus, there are a variety of agents which
IV-84
-------
can be substituted for the halocarbons which are used as auxiliary -blow-
ing agents in flexible foam manufacture. The use of these agents will
undoubtedly result in either an economical or technical compromise when
compared to the current halocarbons.
Extruded polystyrene foams - As previously discussed, members of the
pentane family (n-pentane, isopentane or petroleum ether) have tradition-
ally been used as blowing agents for extruded polystyrene foams. The
advantage of the pentanes is their low cost (roughly one-sixth that of
halocarbon blowing agents). The major advantage of the halocarbon blowing
agents is their lack of flammability and the ability to produce foam of
somewhat lower density than the pentanes. The lower cost of the pentane
blowing agents are offset by the necessity for higher capital investment
in order to provide explosion and fire protection. Inert gases, such as
nitrogen and solid chemical blowing agents are also used to foam poly-
styrene but their use is restricted to the higher density (approximately
40 pcf) foams and these two types of blowing agents have not been found
practical for making low density (less than 10 pcf) extruded polystyrene
foams.
EPS foams - Members of the pentane family (neopentane, isopentane,
and n-pentane) are most commonly used blowing agents in manufacturing
EPS foams. Halocarbons are used to only a very slight extent. Solid
chemical blowing agents which release gas upon decomposition as well
as carbonate esters that release carbon dioxide have been investigated
as alternative blowing agents. The EPS foams compete with extruded poly-
styrene foam board for insulation and various other applications.
IV-85
-------
Polyolefin foams - Hydrocarbon blowing agents can be used as sub-
stitutes in the manufacture of low density polyolefin foams. It is also
possible to make polyolefin foams by the leaching of soluble salts, re-
lease of hydrogen by bombardment w.it.h high energy electrons, solid chemi-
cal blowing agents and injected gases such as nitrogen or C0_. However
these agents do not give lov? density foams.
e. Opportunities for Recovery of Fluorocarbon Blowing Agents
from the Manufacture of Polyurethane Foams
Flexible polyurethane foams - Since the flexible polyurethane foams
are formulated to have an open celled structure, the majority (approximate-
ly 90 percent) of fluorocarbon blowing agents are lost during the foam manu-
facturing step. The foams are dispensed from the mixing head onto a belt
which moves through an enclosed tunnel. After solidification of the cell
structure on the 40-foot conveyor, the foam bun is then sliced and sent
to storage.
Of these four steps in the operation—pouring, foam formation on the
conveyor, cutting, and warehouse storage—the major source of fluorocarbon
loss is from the conveyor. The bun may reach temperatures between 120-
160°C due to heat generated by the reaction of the components. This re-
sults in volatilization of the fluorocarbon blowing agent. We estimate
that 75 percent of the fluorocarbon is lost from this zone. The second most
important source of fluorocarbon loss is at the cutting station.
Because of the extreme toxicity of the toluene diisocyanate (TDI) used
in the foam formulation, most flexible polyurethane bun lines are extremely
well ventilated with hooding over critical areas such as the conveyor
IV-86
-------
and cutting area. Fumes are exhuasted via duct work and a centralized
roof fan. Most plants currently discharge the mixture of TDI, C0_, and
fluorocarbon vapors to the atmosphere. Since a sensitivity to even low
concentrations of TDI can be developed, the air flows in the vent systems
are probably quite high in order to minimize the concentration of TDI in
the exhaust. These low concentrations, as well as the potential that TDI
has for the poisoning of carbon adsorption systems, represent two problems
that could arise in an attempt to recover fluorocarbons from flexible
polyurethane foam plants.
Since the liquid mix is relatively cold during the dispensing step,
there are no significant losses of fluorocarbon from this stage of the
operation.
Rigid foams - Rigid polyurethane foams differ from flexible foams in
that they are formulated to have a closed cell structure in order to re-
tain the maximum quantity of blowing agent for the longest possible time.
Only minimal quantities (probably less than 5 percent) of the total loss of
blowing agent occurs during the manufacturing operation.
The rigid polyurethane foam slab is formed in an enclosed tunnel
similar to that used for pouring the flexible foams. The loss of fluoro-
carbon blowing agent will be primarily from this area and will occur in
that portion of the tunnel prior to the solidification of the foam
structure. The enclosed tunnel is vented by an arrangement similar to
that used for flexible foam manufacture and similarly could be used for
the recovery of f luorocarbon blowing agents.
IV-87
-------
A higher molecular weight polymeric form of TDI is used in fabricat-
ing rigid foams. This component is less volatile than TDI itself; hence,
the concentrations of TDI in the vent system will be considerably lower
than for flexible foam manufacture and the ventilation systems which are
used are, therefore, less likely to have the very high flow rates utilized
in flexible foam venting systems.
IV-88
-------
V. CONVERSION TIMETABLES
A. INTRODUCTION
In the event of a restriction in the use or production of a chemical,
there is a finite response time before substitutes will be available
to satisfy the needs filled by the restricted chemical. The magnitude of
economic disruption resulting from restrictions in the use of fluorocarbons
or chlorocarbons is critically dependent on the timing of the restrictions
and thus the response time available to chemical producers and substitute
product producers.
General conversion timetables have been developed so as to define a
framework within which to consider timing as a variable in the regulatory
options. The following summarizes those steps in a conversion process
which could potentially have a significant impact on the time required to
replace various chemicals under consideration and the products using them.
Conversion Steps Directly Related to Producing Substitute Chemicals
• Screen alternative chemicals and test utility in intended use.
• Develop process technology for alternative chemicals.
• Develop raw material supplies for producing the new chemical
(e.g., new mines, new chemical and physical production facilities).
• Build new plants (or modify existing ones) for the production of
the new chemicals.
V-l
-------
Conversion Steps Related to Products Using a Substitute Chemical or
to a Substitute Product
• Test compatibility of the chemical with other materials and
chemicals in intended uses.
'f!"
• Test products in which the chemical is used for safety and
medical acceptability.
• Develop new equipment capable of using the chemical for the
intended use (e.g., refrigeration equipment).
• Test new equipment for safety and medical acceptability.
• Expand the production capacity of existing products not using
the restricted chemical.
In most cases, definitive predictions of the time required for ade-
quate supplies of a new or substitute product to be available cannot be
made. Many of the steps listed above may not be necessary and many can
be undertaken in parallel. Any development project involves unpredictable
components ranging from unsatisfactory medical test results, to materials
and equipment shortages, to lack of consumer acceptance. The probable
range of conversion times varies greatly depending on the specific product.
Substitute products are currently sold which are intended to satisfy the
demand for fluorocarbon aerosol, antiperspirant products. However, there
could be serious problems producing sufficient quantities of some components
of the substitute products (such as valves for CO. aerosols) if a sudden
massive conversion were required. In addition, the vast majority of
refrigeration equipment uses fluorocarbon products, and an extended period
would be required to bring on a new refrigerant and refrigeration system
with comparable safety and performance factors.
V-2
-------
Since the concern has arisen about the potential effects of fluoro-
carbon and chlorocarbon emissions on the ozone layer, many of the firms
producing the chemicals and producing products using the chemicals have
been working to develop substitute chemicals and products. In most cases,
the results of this work are not in the public domain and thus cannot be
explicitly incorporated in this analysis. The conversion times from this
point would be less than if the planning and developments which have been
underway had not taken place.
The major chemical producers and consumers (particularly aerosol
manufacturers) have regarded restrictions in chemical usage as a serious
possibility for the last six months to one year. During this time, efforts
have been directed at identifying alternative chemicals and products which
do not use potentially restricted chemicals. It is not reasonable to
assume that any significant efforts have been directed toward procuring
new production facilities for substitute chemicals, their raw materials
or products using substitute chemicals. Such efforts would probably not
be undertaken until there is a clear regulatory mandate to do so. The
discussion here of conversion times implies that a specified number of
steps can be undertaken over some period of time and that a "conversion"
will be possible. However, one cannot guarantee that new chemicals or
products will be found with the desired properties or that they will be
commercially successful.
The following discussion of conversion timetables is divided into the
major industry sectors identified earlier, moving from raw materials through
to the consumer products. These individual sector discussions are followed
by a synopsis showing total system conversion timetables and phasing.
V-3
-------
B. SECTOR TIMETABLES
1. Raw Materials
If the production of chlorocarbons and fluorocarbons is banned or cer-
tain uses banned, two alternative substitution sequences can occur. Either
a different chemical can be used in.major current uses or different pro-
ducts can be produced which.do not use a substitute chemical. For example,
a new propellant could be produced for use in aerosols or a non-aerosol
product such as a mechanical pump could be used in place of the aerosol.
Under the assumption that a new chemical or new chemicals are produced,
the time required for developing adequate raw material supplies can be an
important component on the total conversion time. Similar development
times can be necessary for producing alternative products, as is discussed
later. While the distinction between "Basic Chemicals" and "Raw Materials"
is not sharp, these terms are used here to distinguish between the fluoro-
carbons/chlorocarbons and the chemicals and other products used to produce
them. The raw materials may be chemicals produced by the same firms
which are producing the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons.
With the exception of some interchangeability among the halocarbons
themselves, viable substitute chemicals have hot been publicly identified.
It is not possible, therefore, to identify their raw material requirements.
As a model, one can consider that all of the chlorocarbons considered by
this study consume about 46 percent of total U.S. chlorine production
(30 percent excluding vinyl chloride). The fluorocarbons consume about
42 percent of hydrofluoric acid (HF) production. It is possible that a
substitute chemical would use these same raw materials. However, if dif-
ferent raw materials are required, the new demand for the materials could
require a substantial increase in their production capacity.
V-4
-------
Bringing a high-volume source of raw materials on line can be a time-
consuming process. Among the elements which may be required are identifying
material sources, designing and building processing facilities, and securing
adequate energy, transportation, and labor supplies.
Chemical industry sources have estimated that three to five years would
be required to develop raw material sources and processing plants. If high
volume production of the material is already underway, incremental changes
in production capacity would be less. About two years would be required
for additional processing facilities at existing plants if necessary. The
time required to increase utilization of existing production capacity is
negligible relative to the other alternatives. Table V-l summarizes the
time requirements.
The time requirements for raw materials supplies are particularly
critical since the major investment required to build the facility will
not be made until after there is a firm decision to produce the new
chemical. This decision can only come after the chemical product develop-
ment and testing phases have been substantially completed.
Table V-l. NEW RAW MATERIAL SUPPLY TIMES
Design and construct new plant
Add capacity to existing plant
Usage of existing production capacity
3 to 5 years
2 years
Less than 6 months
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on chemical industry
sources.
V-5
-------
2. Basic Chemicals
The times required for bringing production facilities on line for a
new substitute chemical are similar to those described above for the raw
materials. However, in addition to the time required to design and build
(or modify) the production facilities, sufficient time must also be
allowed for testing whether the chemical performs as projected, for testing
its compatibility with other materials and chemicals, and for testing its
safety and toxicity characteristics. Concern for environmental impacts,
such as on the ozone layer and on photochemical oxidant levels, can cause
additional delays. Since most fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons are consumed
in other final products, the viability of these final products using the
new chemical must be well established" before significant commitments can
be made to the chemical production facilities.
If a ban is placed on the production or specified uses.of fluorocar-
bons or chlorocarbons, substitute chemicals may or may not have their
process technologies well established. After a screening of alternatives
and initial testing phase, the development of the manufacturing technology
would typically proceed a period of time before the beginning of the testing
for health and safety effects.
During interviews with chemical manufacturers, the approximate
elapsed times listed in Table V-2 were developed.
V-6
-------
Table V-2. DEVELOPMENT TIMES FOR SUBSTITUTE CHEMICALS
Product Development
Screen alternative chemicals & test utility in
intended use .
Develop new chemical manufacturing technology
Test chemical for environmental, health, and safety
effects
Facilities Development Alternatives
Build new chemical plant
Modify existing chemical plant
Add capacity to existing chemical plant
Increase use of existing production capacity
1 year
2-3 years
1-2 years
3-5 years
2 years
2 years
Less than 6 months
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on chemical industry
sources.
3. Chemical Intermediate Applications
As with Raw Materials, the distinction between "Chemical Intermediate
Applications" and the Basic Chemicals is not sharp in the usual usage of
the terms. Chemical Intermediate Applications are defined in this report
: • •• ' i ' ' . ' • ' ' •
to include those uses of the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons in which they
are intermediates or raw materials in a process to produce a final product
chemical or plastic. The principal products for which the fluorocarbons
and chlorocarbons are intermediates are fluorocarbon resins (i.e., Teflon
made from fluorocarbon 22) and tetraethyl lead, tetramethyl lead, silicones,
» - . • ' •
vinylidene chloride, and vinyl chloride made from the chlorocarbons.
V-7
-------
The effect of a ban on the production of the fluorocarbons and
chlorocarbons would be to end the availability of an important raw
material for these high volume chemicals and some smaller volume pro-
ducts. In some cases, alternative' manufacturing technologies may be
available not using the banned chemical. There is another process for
making vinylidene chloride monomer which does not use methyl chloro-
form. However, such alternatives may not be available in other cases.
As an additional complication, there is no reason to necessarily
believe that once a fluorocarbon or chlorocarbon is no longer available,
a substitute chemical for use as a propellant or refrigerant will be a
satisfactory raw material for the current or reformulated plastic products
formerly using the fluorocarbon or chlorocarbon. With methyl chloride, for
example, no longer available, the manufacturers of silicones would have to
consider alternative products for satisfying the d»emand for silicone pro-
ducts and alternative proc.ess technology/raw materials combinations for
making the new product.
The dimensions of these secondary effects of a ban on fluorocarbon
and chlorocarbon production have not been explicitly defined. However,
the conversion times involved are identical to those described above for
the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons themselves. The economic impact may
be greater on the producers of the products using fluorocarbons and
chlorocarbons as intermediates than on the fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon
producers. As is described in Chapter VI, some producers of tetraethyl
lead and the other products are smaller firms for whom these-products
represent a significant portion of their business. Smaller producers
will often have a more difficult time undertaking sudden, major plant
changes.
V-8
-------
It is difficult to estimate what, if any, effect the involvement
of smaller firms would have on industry conversion times as opposed to
ending the participation of some firms in the markets. Table V-3
shows the estimated conversion times for the final product producers
using the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons as intermediate chemicals.
The times are identical to those for the conversion of the chlorocarbon
and fluorocarbon plants to substitute chemicals because the changes
involve building new or modifying high volume chemical manufacturing
plants.
Table V-3. DEVELOPMENT TIMES FOR PRODUCTION FACILITIES
FOR INTERMEDIATE CHEMICAL APPLICATIONS
Product Development Steps
Screen alternative chemicals and test utility in
intended uses
Develop new chemical manufacturing technology
Test chemical for environmental, health, and safety
effects
Facilities Development Alternatives
Build new chemical plant
Modify existing chemical plant
Add capacity to existing chemical plant
Increase use of existing production capacity
1 year
2-3 years
1-2 years
3-5 years
2 years
2 years
Less than 6 months
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on chemical industry
sources.
V-9
-------
The economic Impact assessment developed in Chapter VII considers
restrictions in the use of carbon tetrachloride which is used as an
intermediate for making F-ll and F-12 and also considers F-22 used as
an intermediate for fluorocarbqn polymer. The intermediate applications
!«.
of other fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons are not considered. As a
general rule, the firms using chlorocarbons and fluorocarbons as inter-
mediates would have considerable difficulty responding to a ban in the
chemicals, :as the conversion times show. However, the results of the
economic impact assessment mask this somewhat because, of the chemicals
considered, only F-22 is used as an intermediate for products which ?
would not also be banned.
4. Propellant Applications
Approximately 50 percent by weight of U.S.. fluorocarbon production
is used as a propellant in aerosol products. The majority of propellant
usage of fluorocarbons is in hair sprays and antiperspirants/deodorants.
If there is a ban on the production of fluorocarbons, the producers of
aerosol products are faced with three options: use a non-aerosol pro-
duct in the present aerosol market; use a compressed gas type propellant;
or use a substitute liquified gas propellant if available.
The first option is the most readily available. Products are cur-
rently sold which are intended to satisfy the personal product aerosol
applications of the fluorocarbons.. Due to a combination of factors, but
principally consumer preference, the aerosol products have taken over a
V-10
-------
major market share of the personal products. This is in spite of the aerosol
product typically being more expensive on a unit of application basis.
While substitute products are currently available, the consumer has per-
ceived a difference between the products and shown a preference in many
cases for aerosol products.
The marketers of the aerosol personal products are in the business
of supplying the personal products market. Many of the firms now mar-
ket the non-aerosol alternatives to the products using the fluorocarbons.
Thus, the option does exist for the marketers to sell the current sub-
stitute products into the aerosol market. These substitutes could
include pump sprays, roll-ons, stick applicators, etc. The hair spray
market has declined slightly over the past several years because of
changing hair styles and the desire for different hair feel.
The time required to increase production of the current substitute
products would probably be less than one year. A very large increase
would be required in current production. The current production capa-
city of the glass and plastic bottle manufacturers is substantially
larger than the unit production of fluorocarbons/aerosols: glass,
39.5 billion units; and plastic, 7.4 billion units. There were about
1.5 billion fluorocarbon/aerosol units sold in 1973.' The procurement
and installation of special tooling and processing equipment could be
stretched over a period longer than a year if a massive conversion to
non-aerosol products is required.
V-ll
-------
Thus, while it is probably physically possible to be producing large
quantities of non-aerosol personal products at the end of one year, it is
unlikely that such a massive production shift could or would be undertaken
in such a short time frame. In• the..-event the marketers put a complete
reliance on the existing non-aerosol products, there would be a large
risk associated with placing orders for the'product or usage equivalent
of 1.5 billion units without knowing the level of total personal product
sales in the absence of the aerosols. Under a scenario of total reliance
on existing non-aerosol products, the actual transition time to an
approximate balance of supply and demand would be in the one to three yeaS:
range.
The two other options open to the aerosol marketer involve using a
new aerosol propellant. Because fluorocarbons are relatively expensive,
an interest has existed for a number of years in developing ah alternative
propellant system. These various alternatives, such as compressed C0»,
have been discussed in Chapter IV. The marketer can begin using
one of the compressed gas systems or a substitute liquified gas propellant.
The technology for compressed gas aerosols exists, but testing of the
acceptance of their different performance characteristics by consumers
is only beginning. Hydrocarbon or C02 propellants used with methylene
chloride as a vapor depressant are now used in at least one aerosol
product as a liquified gas propellant system. However, the propellant
has not had wide acceptance by aerosol manufacturers. A major development
effort may be required to produce a widely accepted liquified gas
propellant.
V-12
-------
A ban of fluorocarbon production in the near future would force
the marketers first to expand the production of their non-aerosol pro-
ducts and in parallel begin developing compressed gas aerosol products.
If alternative liquified gas propellants become available, the aerosol
products can be reformulated.
Both the compressed and liquified gas aerosol products would be new
products requiring a cycle of product designs, testing, manufacturing
facility design, equipment procurement, and facilities testing before
large-scale production. Figure V-l was prepared by a major aerosol
producer as a generalized flow diagram of a new product Introduction
schedule. According to the producer's estimates, 18 to 48 months are
required to move from new product conception to the beginning of pro-
duction. This schedule assumes that the various design and testing
steps (including health and safety) are generally successful. While
some time reductions probably could be achieved during a crash program,
the chance for having to repeat steps and stretching the schedule also
exists.
As an example of the conversion schedule for introducing the
compressed gas products after a fluorocarbon ban, one can use the values
in Figure V-l. A similar schedule could not begin for products with a
new liquified gas propellant until the chemical was identified and its
availability assured. The product introduction schedule would then
V-13
-------
Total 1B-40 iroa.
(Plus Production and
Distribution Time)
M
**
Establish final
Manufacturing
?i-ocec!ure*
prodcct/rroceas
Specifications
Koteai
1. Failure at any step may result
in abandonment of the program•
cr return to an earlier step.
2. Times indicated lead to the
beginning of production.
Added production capacity to
satisfy ncads for national
distribution could add a year
or core to the time schedule.
Figure V-l. Flow Diagram of Aerosol Product Introduction Schedule
Source: Industry estimates.
-------
move in parallel with the final stages of bringing the chemical manu-
facturing plant on line.
Table V-4 summarizes propellant application conversion times
The earliest that adequate non-aerosol products would be available after
a ban is one year. The introduction of compressed gas products could
begin in a year or somewhat later. The introduction of aerosols using
liquified gas propellants would be dependent on the further development
of alternative chemicals whose time of availability is uncertain.
Table V-4. TIME REQUIRED FOR INTRODUCING PRODUCTS
TO PERSONAL CARE MARKET
Expand production of existing non-aerosol products
Introduce compressed gas aerosol products
Introduce liquified gas aerosol products
1-3 years
1-3 years
2-4 years after
new propellant
identified
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on aerosol product
industry sources.
V-15
-------
5. Refrigerant Applications
The refrigeration and air conditioning uses of fluorocarbons present
a particularly difficult conversion problem. The refrigerant is a small
part of the cost of a refrigeratortbut there are not significant near-
term opportunities for using another refrigerant. Since there appears
to be a high potential for recovering a major portion of the fluorocarbons
now lost to the atmosphere in refrigeration applications, special con-
sideration has been given to emmission reduction as a regulatory alterna-
tive.
The refrigeration industry can be characterized as a high volume
manufacturing operation using a technology which has gradually evolved
over a number of years. The products must have high reliability with
very low health and safety risk. Any product changes come slowly and
require a significant capital investment by the manufacturer. Other chemical
refrigerants exist and have been used, such as ammbnia and sulfur dioxide.
However, they have been abandoned for almost all applications because of toxi-
city or other safety factors. Complicating the regulatory problem if a
substitute refrigerant were available are the millions of refrigeration
and air conditioning units currently in service which can only operate on
the fluorocarbon refrigerant. These units need periodic recharging and
would eventually cease functioning if fluorocarbon refrigerants were not
available.
Two basic timetables have been considered. The first involves up-
grading the existing designs and servicing techniques to reduce refrige-
rant losses to the atmosphere. The second is an order of magnitude
V-16
-------
estimate of the conversion time in the event of a total ban of fluoro-
carbon production.
Table V-5 summarizes the refrigerant uses in the five principal pro-
duct categories and the current availability of non-fluorocarbon
refrigeration systems. One possibility is that fluorocarbon 12 (F-12)
will be banned but not fluorocarbon 22 (F-22). The refrigeration and
air conditioning equipment now using F-12 cannot use F-22. For most air
conditioning applications, products now exist using F-22, but F-22 is not
being used for refrigeration applications, nor do successful designs for
its use exist. The conversion of refrigeration products to F-22 would
require overcoming some major design problems which have been considered
by producers in the past but not solved. In product categories now par-
tially using F-22, those producers whose products use F-22 would benefit
substantially from an Immediate ban on F-12. It is not likely that their
production capacity could satisfy the total demand within a year. Within
about three years, production of existing products using F-22 could be
expanded to meet demand. During this time, the production capacity of
F-22 may also have to be expanded.
If F-12 and F-22 are both banned, the refrigeration and air conditioner
manufacturers may be forced to switch to absorption systems, whose
designs are in some cases now available. Hydrocarbon-based systems using
pentane and butane have been used in the past but would not likely be used
again because of their explosion danger. Development of a new, safe re-
frigerant for use in current vapor compression systems would be the option
favored by most manufacturers. However, an alternative with properties
similar to F-12 and F-22 is not now generally available.
V-17
-------
Table V-5. AVAILABILITY OF NON-FLUOROCARBON REFRIGERATION AND AIR CONDITIONING PRODUCTS
Product category
Appliances
Mobile air conditioners
ROOD) (home) air conditioners
Commercial refrigeration
Commercial Air Conditioning
(chillers)
Reciprocating
Centrifugal
Current
refrigerant
F-12
F-12
F-22
F-12 and F-502
F-12 & F-22
F-ll, F-12, & F-22
Non-fluorocarbon
technology
now available
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Non-fluorocarbon
designs
now available
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Non-fluorocarbon
products
now available
Yes (limited)
No
No
No
Yes (small)
Yes
M
oo
The non-fluorocarbon products for which there -are now designs use an absorption technology. Hydrocarbon
refrigeration technologies exist but are not viable 1th most applications for safety reasons.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., based on refrigeration industry sources.
-------
Absorption systems are currently sold for use in the commercial
chillers (mostly commercial air conditioning systems). A ban of fluorp-
carbons would require expanding production of these products. The tran-
sition time would be approximately two to threfe years.
For appliances and home air conditioners, products are' not now being
sold using the absorption technology. Natural gas companies promoted
these applications of the technology for a number of years because they
were promoting natural gas as an energy source. While the products were
not commercially successful, the specific product designs were developed.
They would have to be modified to use different heat sources, for example,
but the basic design work has been substantially completed. The time
required to modify the designs and procure and set up new manufacturing
facilities is estimated to be three to five years.
Designs do not apparently exist for mobile air conditioners, and
there appear to be major design problems in adapting the absorption tech-
nology to mobile units. While it may be possible to design an absorption
system for use in a car, it would be very difficult and there is no
assurance of success.
The schedule for bringing products to the market using a new refri-
gerant could be substantially longer than that required for conversion to
absorption systems. In addition to the time required to develop the re-
frigerant itself, an extensive design, testing, and manufacturing
facilities development period would be required. The performance charac-
teristics of the new refrigerant could be substantially different than
those of F-12 or F-22 and require a basic redesign of the refrigeration
and air conditioning systems. Without knowing the specifications of the
V-19
-------
refrigerant, the magnitude of this design effort cannot be known. However,
in discussions with refrigeration industry sources, an estimate was
developed of five to seven years from the time a new design program begins
to the beginning of production. The schedule would include a three to
five year design and test phase followed by a two year period of further
field tests and the procurement of manufacturing equipment.
One regulatory option is the requirement or encouragement of
significant reductions in the loss of the fluorocarbon refrigerant to
the atmosphere. The loss reduction opportunities occur in both the up-
grading of current system designs and improved equipment servicing
techniques. Equipment improvements could include substituting flexible
metal hoses in mobile air conditioners and the use of self-sealing con-
nectors and precharged components. The servicing improvements could
include the recapture of the refrigerant instead of venting it during
servicing. The time required for such upgrading and service changes is
in the two to three year range.
Table V-6 summarizes the transition times of the refrigeration
application alternatives.
V-20
-------
Table V-6. TRANSITION TIMES OF REFRIGERANT APPLICATIONS
Product categories
Appliances
Mobile air conditioners
Room (home) air conditioners
i
Commercial refrigeration
Commercial air conditioners
(chillers)
Rec iprocating
Centrifugal
Upgrade
current
products
2-3 years
3-4 years
2-3 years
2-3 years
2-3 years
2-3 years
Convert
from
F-12 to F-22
3-4 years
indefinite
zero time
3-4 years
2-3 years
1-3 years
Convert from
f luorocarbon
to absorption
4-6 years
indefinite
3-5 years
4-6 years
3-5 years
2-3 years
Convert to
a
new refrigerant
3-5 years
3-5 years
3-5 years
3-5 years
3-5 years
3-5 years
f
IS)
Conversion time after new refrigerant is identified and assuming it is available in sufficient quantities.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on refrigeration industry sources.
-------
6. Blowing Agent Applications
Fluorocarbons 11 and 12 are used to produce the bubbles in foam
plastic products, such as furniture padding and insulation. The plastic
material and the fluorocarbon are mixed in a cooled liquid state and then
heated. The fluorocarbon vaporizes, producing the bubbles.
Other products have been used as blowing agents prior to the use of
fluorocarbons. However, they have generally been flammable, whereas the
fluorocarbons are not.
The two strategies for ending or reducing the fluorocarbon emissions
from blowing agent applications involve switching to an alternative blowing
agent or installing vapor recovery systems. If the fluorocarbons are no
longer available, alternative blowing agents or products would be available
within one to two years in the major foam markets.
The rigid polyurethane, insulating foams heavily depend on the insu-
lating properties of the fluorocarbons and may not remain competitive with
other insulating materials without the fluorocarbon blowing agent. While
conversion to another blowing agent may be possible in about two years,
requiring some redesign of the products using the foams, there is a like-
lihood that the product would no longer be competitive with other insulating
foams.
In the case of the flexible foams, the fluorocarbons are primarily used
as auxiliary blowing agents. In order to approximate the product charac-
teristics now achieved in lower density foams, producers are expected to
convert to methylene chloride for a blowing agent if the fluordcarbons are
not available and even perhaps if vapor recovery requirements are imposed.
V-22
-------
Table V-7 summarizes the blowing agent conversion timetables.
Table V-7. CONVERSION TIMES FOR BLOWING AGENT APPLICATIONS
Develop and install vapor recovery equipment
Substitute blowing agent in rigid foam applications
Substitute blowing agent in flexible foam applications
2-3 years
3 years
6 months
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry sources.
in the manufacture of flexible polyurethane foams, the various
vapors emitted in the production process are collected and vented to the
atmosphere because they are toxic. To recapture the fluorocarbon por-
tion of the vapors, one would want to use a carbon adsorption system.
However, isocyanate, which is also in the vapor stream, will poison the
system. While in principle it may be possible to get around this problem,
adequate fluorocarbon recovery equipment for use with the flexible foams
does not now exist. A two to three year development and installation
period may be required. For these reasons, the producers seem likely to
convert to methylene chloride as a blowing agent rather than install the
vapor recovery equipment.
The vapors from the manufacture of rigid polystyrene foams are not
collected. If collection systems are installed, the recapture of fluoro-
carbon emissions during production by carbon adsorption may be less tech-
nically difficult than in the case of the flexible foams because of the
absence of poisoning agents in the vapor. One should, however, regard a
V-23
-------
two to three, year development and installation period UK also being repre-
sentative of the response time for rigid foam manufacturers to requirements
for reducing f luorocarbon emissions.
7.
Fluorocarbons and chlorocarhons are used in a wide variety of solvent
applications. These uses include high quality clean ing of electronic.
components, dry cleaning, and general decreasing in metal working. Wlu'le
there are. selected industries: which primarily perform a cleaning func.t i.on ,
these activities do not adequately characterize the solvent applicat ions
of f Luorocarbons and chlorocarbons. The availability of solvents is critical
to a variety of sectors such as printed circuit manufacturers, textile
manufacturers, and the Defense Department.
The advantages and disadvantages of using various solvents were dis-
cussed in detail earlier. .Since there is a significant opportunity for
reducing losses to the atmosphere, this vapor recovery option has been
added to conversion options.
While the products have considerable performance differences, there is
substantial cross-over, usage among the solvents and the different applica-
tions. The major solvent used in dry cleaning in the U.S. for example is
perchloroethylene. Limited quantities of DuPont's "Valclene" (F-113)
are also used. European dry cleaners also use trichloroethylene and F-ll.
The impact on solvent applications will depend on which chemicals are con-
trolled. The regulatory alternatives discussed in Chapter VII include methyl
chloroform but not the other principal solvents used in the U.S.
V-24
-------
If some of the fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon solvents are banned, the
first option for the users would be alternative fluorocarbon or chloro-
carbon solvents. If all of the fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon production
is ended, substitutes such as water-based or hydrocarbon-based solvents
would be used. This is not to say that their performance is equivalent
to the chlorocarbon/fluorocarbon solvents. In general, the substitute
solvents and the technology for using them are available. The conversion
time for movement to the substitutes is in the one to two year range for
many applications.
By suggesting the potential for substitute solvents, one must allow
for the possibility of Very specialized uses of the chlorocarbons or fluoro-
carbons which are not readily satisfied by alternative solvents. Tech-
niques or technologies such as associated with micro-circuitry may have
developed based on the availability of the solvents. The implications of
an end to the availability of the solvents in all their applications have
not been determined.
Of the five chemicals considered in the economic impact assessment
of Chapter VII, only methyl chloroform has major solvent uses. Many users
of methyl chloroform as a solvent could switch to F-113, though it also
may ultimately be included in fluorocarbon use restrictions. Trichloro-
ethylene has only limited potential as an alternative because of its
impacts on photochemical oxidant levels in urban areas. Some special
applications, such as printed circuit boards, may be dependent on the
properties of methyl chloroform and could not easily substitute another
solvent. In general, solvent users will be able to move to substitutes
V-25
-------
for methyl chloroform such as F-113, perchloroethylene, water or
hydrocarbon-based solvent, but not without difficulty and some sacrifice
in performance/cost.
For the high-value solvents such as fluorocarbon 113, substantial
efforts are made to recover vapor emissions. The technology for vapor
recovery in most applications is now widely available. It is technically
possible to make improvements in vapor recpvcry by the end of one year
following the issuance of the necessary regulations or price incentives.
However, there may be important constraints on the availability of certain
3
components of the vapor recovery equipment such as carbon adsorption units
which could stretch out the conversion by one or more years.
Table V-8 summarizes the conversion times for the regulatory alter-
natives.
Table V-8. CONVERSION TIMES FOR SOLVENT APPLICATIONS
Convert to different fluorocarbon/chlorocarton
solvent
Convert to new solvent (when available)
Upgrade vapor recovery practices
1-2 years
1-2 years (after
becoming available)
1-2 years
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., based on chemical industry contacts.
V-26
-------
C. PHASING OF CONVERSION TIMES
For each of the industry sectors now consuming the potentially re-
stricted fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons, two conversion timetables are
of primary interest. The first is the time required to bring to the
market a sufficient quantity of a substitute product to meet the demand
now satisfied by the product using the fluorocarbon or chlorocarbon.
As an example, the time required to manufacture and distribute roll-on
and stick antlperspirant products would be the first conversion time if
a ban were placed on the use of fluorocarbons in aerosol antiperspirants.
The second conversion time of primary interest is that required to bring
on line a substitute chemical with similar characteristics to the fluoro-
carbons and chlorocarbons and then reformulate the existing products to
use the new chemicals. For the antiperspirant, a new liquified gas pro-
pellant may have to be developed, followed by the reformulation and
testing of the aerosol antiperspirant product.
These two conversion times represent, first, the response or con-
version times of the consuming sectors to an abrupt, near-term ban on
their use of the chemicals. The second response time is that required
to develop a substitute chemical with properties similar to the banned
chemical and to reformulate the consuming products. Because the second
response time is substantially longer than the first, the second repre-
sents potential (but not certain) long-term conversion strategy. If
there is a ban of the chemicals in the next one or two years, the con-
suming sectors would have to pursue the first set of conversion strategies
and then wait to see if new chemicals became available in the future and
decide then whether a reconversion was possible or necessary.
V-27
-------
Table V-9 summarizes the primary response times of the chemical
consuming industries to an immediate (six months, for example) ban on
the production or use of the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons. In most
instances, the response would be .£0 introduce into the existing markets
products which now exist but have not been able to compete with products
using the fluorocarbons or chlorocarbons.
The fastest response time for the propellant applications is one
to two years, during which the production capacity of substitute products
would be expanded and market acceptance would be tested. Major segments
of the refrigeration industry could not market substitute products until
about three years after a ban in the fluorocarbons. This time would be
spent adopting absorption technology to the various refrigeration pro-
ducts and gearing up the necessary manufacturing facilities. The inter-
mediate chemicals are a major exception to the general rule of available
substitute products. While some substitute products may be available,
a ban of some of the chlorocarbons and fluorocarbons could require sub-
stantial chemical process technology development, new final product
development and testing, and new facilities development. A two to seven
year range must be assumed as a possible "fastest" conversion time.
When considering the time required to bring on line substitute
chemicals as opposed to substitute products, there are a number of impor-
tant uncertainties which cannot be resolved at this point. It is not
publicly known whether viable substitute chemicals have been identified
or what their potential uses or characteristics would be. If a substitute
is identified, one cannot now say whether it is a product already being
produced or whose production technology is well known. The substitute
V-28
-------
Table V-9. CONSUMING INDUSTRY RESPONSE TIME TO
AN IMMEDIATE CHEMICAL BAN
Consuming industry
Response time a
Intermediate chemical applications
Propellant applications
Refrigerant applications
Appliances
Mobile air conditioners
. Home air conditioners
Commercial refrigeration
Commercial air conditioners
- reciprocating
- centrifugal
Blowing agent applications
Rigid foams
Flexible foams
Solvent applications
(Convert to non-regulated fluorocarbons
or chlorocarbons)
2-7 years
1-2 years
to absorption
4-6 years
indefinite
3-5 years
4-6 years
3-5 years
2-3 years
3 years
six months
1-2 years
to F-22
3-4 years
indefinite
zero
3-4 years
2-3 years
1-3 years
The primary response times of the consuming industries to a ban of
fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon usage are the elapsed times required
for the industries to introduce substitute products to meet the demand
now satisfied by controlled chemicals or products using the chemicals.
In the event of a ban of F-ll and F-12, most refrigerant applications
would be converted to F-22. If F-22 were also banned, the products
would be converted to absorption systems or to other suitable refrigerants.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., based on industry sources.
V-29
-------
chemical might require major efforts to develop a manufacturing tech-
nology and then to build new production plants.
Figures V-2 and V-3 were constructed to illustrate an "Opti-
mistic" and a "Pessimistic" sequencing of the steps required to bring a
substitute chemical into production. Under the "Optimistic" scenario,
the following assumptions were made:
1. The screening and testing of substitute chemicals has been
underway for one year before the ban is imposed.
2. The chemical manufacturing technology for producing the sub-
stitute chemical is already well established.
3. The necessary raw materials are already being produced and
their production capacity simply needs to be expanded.
4. The manufacturing facilities for the new chemical would be
conversions or expansions of existing facilities.
Under this set of optimistic assumptions, about three and a half
years is required to begin production of the substitute chemical after
the fluorocarbon or chlorocarbon is banned.
The "Pessimistic" scenario assumes each of the required steps for
bringing on a new chemical must be carried out in its entirety. The
specific assumptions made were the following:
1. A substitute chemical had not been identified or tested at the
time the ban was imposed.
2. A reliable process technology for the chemical must be developed.
3. Adequate raw material supplies do not exist and new- raw material
plants must be built.
4. New chemical production plants must be built.
V-30
-------
Chemical testing
Expand raw materials
Expand or modify
existing facilities
1 H-
2 3
Time, years
Figure V-2. "Optimistic" Time Sequence for Producing Substitute Chemical*
a Assumes: 1)
2)
3)
4)
screening and testing of substitute chemical has been underway
one year before ban.
chemical process technology for producing substitute exists.
raw materials are secured by an expansion, of existing sources.
the new chemical processing facilities would be expansions or
conversions of existing facilities.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on chemical industry sources.
-------
u>
Screen alternative
chemicals
Test substitute for
health, safety, etc.
Develop process
technology
Develop and build raw
material plant
Build chemical plant
Time, years
Figure V-3. "Pessimistic" Time Sequence for Producing Substitute Chemical*
Assumes: 1) substitute chemical has not been identified at time of ban.
2) • reliable process technology for producing the chemical does not exist.
3) adequate raw material supplies do not exist.
4) new chemical production plants must be built.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on chemical industry sources.
-------
Under this set of pessimistic assumptions, nine years would be
required to begin production of a substitute chemical after the impo-
sition of a ban on fluorocarbon/chlorocarbon production.
Without knowing specifically what the substitute chemical will be,
the possible range of times necessary to simply begin producing a sub-
stitute chemical must be bracketed at between 4 to 9 years. The
conversion of one producer from trichloroethylene to methyl chloroform
for major solvent applications is an analogous situation. In 1966,
trichloroethylene was identified as a contributor to smog in Los Angeles.
In 1973, seven years later, the production facilities for methyl chloro-
form came on line. The same producer had identified a new pesticide in
1966, but the production plant was not operational until 1975.
When considering potential chemical conversion times, one can regard
a three to four year conversion time as being a minimum, and a seven
to nine year conversion time as a likely maximum.
If the substitute chemical is to be used as a final product,, such
as in solvent applications, the production of the chemical itself is the
beginning of the product availability in its final form. When the
chemical is to be used as an input to other final products, time required
for the reformulation or redesign of the consuming products is an impor-
tant component of the total time required to bring new consuming
products to the market. Forty-nine percent of the 1973 U.S. production
of fluorocarbons was used as an aerosol propellant. From the standpoint
of the producer of a chemical substitute to the fluorocarbon, it is cri-
tically important to know whether the substitute can and will be used in
the propellant applications. This information must be known before the
V-33
-------
producer commits' himself to production capacity for which there is no
market. The decisions by potential users of the chemicals, such as
refrigeration manufacturers and aerosol manufacturers, may be the deter-
mining factors as far as whether and- when substitute chemicals would be
produced.
Figure V-4 illustrates how the conversion times of the chemical
manufacturer and the aerosol producer sequence under optimistic, and pes-
simistic chemical conversion assumptions. The elapsed time from the
announcement of the ban to the beginning of production of the chemical
and the aerosol products would be between four and ten years. These
times are longer than simply beginning production of the chemical
because major investments in chemical production facilities and developing
production technologies will be delayed until the viability of aerosol
products using the new propellant can be established. The four to ten
year range of conversion times would; be applicable to F-ll and F-12,
which are predominantly used as propellanta.
Figure V-5 illustrates the sequence of conversion times for moving
to a new chemical refrigerant. Again using the optimistic and pessimistic
alternatives, the conversion time range is from four and a half to ten
and a half years. The times are slightly longer than for the aerosol
applications because more time may be required to verify the utility of
the chemical in the new refrigeration system than would be necessary in
aerosol products. The conversion range of four and a half to ten and a half
years would be representative; of the time required to convert; from refri-
geration systems using fluorocarbon refrigerants to non-fluorocarbon liquid
refrigerants.
V-34
-------
u>
Ul
Chemical testing
Aerosol product develop-
ment & testing
Expand or modify raw
material & chemical
production plants
Set up aerosol manufac-
turing plants
Chemical screening
& testing
Develop process
technology
Build raw material plant
Build chemical plant
Aerosol product develop-
ment & testing
Set up aerosol manufac-
turing facilities
Optimistic Schedule
Pessimistic Schedule
4-
f-
•\ 1 1-
0123456789 10
Time, years
Figure V-4. "Optimistic" and "Pessimistic" Time Schedules for Converting to a New Liquified Gas Propellant
See text for definition of optimistic and pessimistic schedules.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry sources.
-------
Chemical testing
Refrigeration product
development & testing
Expand or modify raw
material & chemical
production plants
Set up refrigeration
manufacturing plants
Optimistic Schedule
a
Chemical screening
& testing
Develop process
technology
Build raw material plant
Build chemical plant
Refrigeration product
development & testing
Set up refrigeration
manufacturing facilities
Pessimistic Schedule
0
1 2 3 45 6 7 8 9 10
Time, years
Figure V-5. "Optimistic" and "Pessimistic" Time Schedules for Converting to New Chemical Refrigerant.
\ h
+
11
See text for definition of optimistic and pessimistic schedules.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry sources.
-------
Table V-10 summarizes the estimated times required to convert to
a new chemical in the major fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon use sectors.
These values are in contrast with those in Table V-9 which show what
now appear to be the earliest the major consuming industries will be
able to introduce products taking the place of those currently using
the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons. In the event of a ban, the indus-
try sectors would undertake the conversion strategies represented by
Table V-9. In parallel, they could waif for substitute chemicals to
be developed and then consider the reformulation or redesign of their
products with the new chemicals. Table V-10 lists the estimated times
for this second set of conversion strategies.
In addition to the opportunities for conversion to substitute pro-
ducts or substitute chemicals, the opportunities for reducing emissions
to the atmosphere which were discussed earlier are summarized in
Table V-ll. The estimated times required to upgrade equipment or
modify processing facilities are listed on the table. These response
times are short relative to other options and in some cases can signifi-
cantly reduce losses to the atmosphere.
As is discussed in Chapter III, there are small atmospheric
losses due to manufacturing and transporting the chemicals. However,
the losses during their intended uses are far greater, and it is the
reduction of these use losses that are summarized in Table V-ll.
V-37
-------
Table V-10. CONSUMING INDUSTRY CONVERSION TIMES
TO USING SUBSTITUTE CHEMICALS
Consuming industry
Conversion times
Intermediate chemical applications
Propellant applications
Refrigerant applications.
Blowing agent applications
- flexible foams
- rigid foams
Solvent applications .,.._
5 to 10 years
4 to 10 years
5 to 11 years
six months
4 to 9 years
4 to 9 years
The conversion times to substitute chemicals are those required to
develop nett chemicals with properties similar to the banned compounds
and to modify the products using the banned chemicals.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry sources.
Table V-ll. TIMES REQUIRED FOR EtjjUlPMENT UPGRADING
TO REDUCE ATMOSPHERIC LOSSES
Industry sector
Refrigerant applications
Blowing agent applications
Solvent applications
Re.sponse times
2 to 4 years
2 to 3 years
1 year
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry sources.
V-38
-------
VI. DEFINITION OF PRIMARY AFFECTED INDUSTRY SECTORS
A. INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this chapter is to define the major industry sectors
which potentially may be significantly impacted by restrictions on the
chlorocarbons and fluorocarbbns under investigation in this report. Since
A
the various sectors are so highly interrelated, we have shown the flow of
products from raw materials, such as chlorine, through various hydrocarbon
and chlorocarbon intermediates to final products, among which are the
fluorocarbons in question.
Each of these interrelated sectors could be impacted by a fluoro-
carbon ban or limitation. The level of impact, however, would be a
function of the timing and extent of specific regulatory actions. This
chapter, therefore, examines the industry participants and their respec-
tive dependence on fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons as a base for discussing
the impact of alternative regulatory scenarios and resulting potential
economic impacts in Chapter VII.
We have concentrated on defining industry sectors directly involved
with manufacture and use of fluorocarbon materials. Impacts for indirectly
related Industries, such as the transportation or the retail areas , have
not been studied and should be considered in a subsequent analysis.
VI-1
-------
B. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1. Sector Relationships
The overall structure of the industry associated with fluorocarbon
manufacture is complex and highly interrelated. Figure VI-1 illustrates
the progression from relatively simple and basic raw materials such as
chlorine and raw hydrocarbons through several intermediates, and finally
to fluorocarbon and related products and their respective major end uses.
This figure is meant only to show generalized product relationships and
may differ somewhat from a producer's specific manufacturing practice.
The various components and the interrelationship of the fluorocarbon-
related industries are best described by examining each product class
separately.
a. Basic Raw Materials
The fundamental raw materials for fluorocarbon production are hydro-
carbons, hydrofluoric acid and chlorine. Chlorine is a basic industrial
chemical—produced from the electrolysis of brine!r»-with applications
in a wide range of organic and inorganic products, as shown in Table VI-1.
In terms of consumption, by far the most important end uses for chlorine
are in the manufacture of chlorocarbons, which accounted for over 45 percent
of 1973 domestic chlorine demand. A more detailed description of chloro-
carbon manufacture and end use is found in the next section of this report.
Other major feedstocks for fluorocarbon manufacture are light
hydrocarbons — methane, ethane, propane, n-butane—obtained primarily
from natural gas or from petroleum refinery operations. Natural gas
supplies, however, are becoming scarcer and petrochemical manufacturers
VI-2
-------
RAW MATERIALS
METHANE-
CHLORINE
I
co
REFINERY GASES —
ETHANE a PROPANE-*
N-BUTANE-
HEAVY
LIQUID FEEDSTOCKS -«J
PRIMARY CHLOROCARBON
INTERMEDIATES INTERMEDIATES
END PRODUCTS
END USES
43%
PROPYLENE
— i
ETHANE
- 1
ETHYL ALCOHOL
-ETHYLENE—
ACETYLENE
-,
|
•-METHYL CHLORIDE
(ALSO CHLOROFORM)
METHYLENE CHLORIDE
TETRAMETHYL LEAD •
'SILICONES
MISCELLANEOUS (Chemicol Inrermeliore.erc.)
*• CHLOROFORM •
(F-22).
.ALSO -ETHYL CHLORIDE AND '^LVENT AND OTHER
KETHYLENE CHLORIBE) 80%,
CARBON TETRACHLORIDE-
AND OTHER
rLUOROCAR80NS (F-II.F-12)
-^•PERCHLOROETHYLENE
(ALSO CARBON TETRACHLORIOEI
-METHYL CHLOROFORM „
(SEE INTERMEDIATES FROM
ETHYLENE OiCHLORIDE)
rSS^TETRAETHYL LEAD
ETHYL CHLORIDE • . ,v
LliASOLVENT AND OTHER
ETHYLENE OICHLORIOE-
r2S*VlNYL CHLORIDE
METHYL CHLOROFORM •
_2Z
-wPOLYVINYL CHLORIDE—I
h—*2LEAD SCAVENGER
—ETHYLENE AMINES
EXPORTS AND OTHER
—*?PERCHLORO£THYLENE
—*£TRICHLOROETHYLENE
c
PERCHLOROETHYLENE
TRICHLOROETHYLENE
}
(SEE INTERMEDIATES FROM
ETHVLENE OiCNLORIDE)
Figure VI-1. Materials Flow Chart - Chlorocarbons - 1973
-VINYLIDENE CHLORIDE
50%
GASOLINE ANTIKNOCK FLUID
POLYMERS, SPECIALTY CHEMICALS
SOLVENT. PAINT REMOVER
AEROSOL VAPOR DEPRESSANT
-^•PLASTICS PROCESSING dolvtnt)
AND OTHER
"~~~^ I SEE FLUOROCAR80N
f FLOW CHART
"TTT-1 (Figure VI-2.)
-° BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION
FURNISHINGS
ELECTRICAL INSULATION
PACKAGING
OTHER
POLYVINYklDENE -CHLORIDE
CLEANING SOLVENT
705i ^
—* VEHICLE SOLVENT
227
EXPORT AND OTHER
DRY CLEANING
TEXTILE PROCESSING & FINISHING
•EXPORTS AND OTHERS
METAL CLEANING
FLUOROCAR80NS. (F-113. F-114)
CLEANING
EXPORTS E. OTHER
EXTRACTION SOLVENT
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
Table VI-1. U.S. CHLORINE PRODUCTION AND MAJOR END USES - 1973
(thousands of tons)
Organic compounds
One-carbon (C )
Two-carbon (C )
Three-carbon (C.)
Cyclic
Oxygen containing
Total organic
Non-organic
Inorganic chemicals
Pulp and paper
Water treatment
Total non-organic
Unspecified
Total
Demand
1,550
3,000
620
517
1,035
6,722
1,240
1,345
520
3,105
533
10,360
Percent of
total
15
29
6
5
10
65
12
13
5
30
5.
100
Source; U.S. International Trade Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
estimates.
VI-4
-------
are looking increasingly toward heavy liquid feedstocks such as
naphtha and gas oil as the source of light hydrocarbons. Technologies
for heavy liquid cracking and reforming are being developed currently
and over the next 5-10 years should play an increasingly important role
as sources for hydrocarbons suitable for conversion to chlorocarbons
and fluorpcarbons.
b. Primary Intermediates
The hydrocarbon raw materials described in the previous section are
processed to yield an extremely, important group Of industrial intermediates—
ethylene, propylene, acetylene, methanol, ethanol, and others. Ethylene
is the largest volume olefin produced in the United States, with 1973
production in excess of 22 billion pounds, and is produced either via
ethane, reforming or heavy liquid cracking. Virtually all ethylene
produced is used as a precursor for derived products—polyethylene, ethy-
lene glycol, and ethylene dichloride, which in turn are either processed
further or, in the case of polyethylene, consumed directly.
Another important primary intermediate related to fluorocarbon pro-
duction is propylene, which is produced either via propane reforming or
•
heavy liquid cracking, much like ethylene. Propylene finds use as a
precursor for polypropylene,.an increasingly important plastic, as well
as for propylene glycol and the chlorocarbon, perchloroethylene.
Propylene production in 1973 was nearly 10 billion pounds, placing it second in
overall olefin. production. Another noteworthy intermediate is
acetylene, which has experienced declining production recently, as
alternate intermediates (most directly ethylene and propylene) have
proven more economical in the manufacture of downstream products.
VI-5
-------
Acetylene, however, Is produced from a variety of hydrocarbon feedstocks
and is used in the manufacture of a limited amount of perchloroethylene
and trichloroethylene. Ethanol and tnethanol are also used as precursors
for chlorocarbons such as methyl chloride, methylene chloride, and ethyl
chloride, as well as directly as solvents and in other uses. Table VI-2
summarizes the 1973 production and major end uses for each of these
primary intermediates.
-Although chlorine, itself, is used directly in the production of most
chlorocarbons,, a small amount of hydrogen chloride (HC1) is used to produce
methyl chloride and methylene chloride. In addition, substantial amounts
of HC1, which is produced as a byproduct of chlorocarbon manufacture, are
recycled and oxidized to produce makeup chlorine via oxychlorination or the
relativetly new Kel-Chlor process. Approximately 5 to 10 percent of the
total amount of chlorine required for chlorocarbon manufacture is supplied
from HC1 recycle.
c. Chlorocarbon Intermediates
As indicated in Figure VI-1 the chlorocarbons represent a second
class of intermediate which result from the processing via chlorination
or hydrochlorination of primary intermediates such as ethylene or
propylene. In turn, these chlorocarbon intermediates are generally pro-
cessed further into fluorocarbons and other chlorinated materials such
as polyvinyl chloride. However, some chlorocarbons, such as perchloro-
ethylene, trichloroethylene, and methyl chloroform have direct application
as solvents, degreasing agents, cleaning agents, and in other uses which
use about 25 percent of the total production of the 10 chlorocarbons
studied.
Jl-6
-------
Table VI-2. U.S. PRODUCTION AND END USES OF HALOCARBON PRIMARY INTERMEDIATES - 1973
Chemical Production Major end uses Percent
Ethylene
Propylene
Acetylene
Methanol
Ethanol
22,329 million Ib
9,880 million Ib
380 million Ib
960 million gal
285 million gal
Polyethylene
Ethylene dichloride
Ethylene glycol
Ethylbenzene
Ethyl alcohol
Other
Acrylonitrile
Polypropylene
Other a
Acrylates
Vinyl chloride monomer
Acetylenic chemicals
Vinyl acetate
Chlorinated solvents
Other
Formaldehyde
General process solvents
DMT
Methyl halides
Methyl amines
Exports
Miscellaneous
Chemical intermediates
Toiletries & cosmetics
Acetaldehyde
Industrial solvent &
thinner
Detergents, flavors &
disinfectants
Miscellaneous
40
13
12
8
6
21
21
29
50
26
23
20
17
4
10
45
10
7
4
4
5
21
26
20
9
12
10
23
Includes allyl chloride, butyraldehydes, cumene, dodecene, heptene,
isopropyl alcohol, nonene, propylene oxide.
Sources: Chemical Marketing Reporter, U.S. International Trade Commission,
and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
VI-7
-------
The Cj chlorocarbons include methyl chloride, methylene chloride,
chloroform, and carbon tetrachloride. The majority (60 percent) of methyl
chloride is produced via hydrochlorination of the primary intermediate,
methanol, with the remainder being produced via direct chlorination of
methane. Methylene chloride on the other hand is predominantly produced
via direct chlorination of methane, which produces methyl- and methylene
chloride as coproducts. Carbon tetrachloride and chloroform are also
produced via direct chlorination as coproducts. In addition, about 25
percent of carbon tetrachloride production capacity is based on carbon
disulfide and a small amount of carbon tetrachloride is obtained as a by-
product of perc'hloroethylene manufacture.
The C2 chlorocarbons include perchloroethylene, trichloroethylene,
ethyl chloride, and ethylene dichloride (EDC), and, together with C,
chlorocarbons, constitute the chlorocarbon intermediates for the fluoro-
carbons examined in this study. With over 9 billion pounds produced in
1973, ethylene dichloride is the largest-volume chlorocarbon intermediate.
Derivative's include vinyl chloride, perchloroethylene, and trichloroethylene.
Table VI-3 details the end-use pattern for EDC in 1973 and shows that its
dominant use was as the precursor for vinyl chloride manufacture. EDC
in addition served as the precursor for 85 percent of the estimated 450
million pounds of the trichloroethylene, and 50 percent of the 700 million
pounds of perchloroethylene produced, respectively, in 1973. Chlorination of
acetylene accounts for the remaining 15 percent of trichloroethylene,
and 5 percent of perchloroethylene production. The remaining 45 percent of
perchloroethylene production is via propylene chlorination.
d. End Products and Uses
The end products for which chlorocarbon intermediates serve as
precursors are extremely large in number and widespread in use. In
VI-8
-------
Table VI-3 U.S. ETHYLENE BICHLORIDE END USE - 1973
(millions of p'ouhds)
Total EDC reported production
End use
Vinyl chloride
Trichloroethylene
Perchloroethylene
Ethylene amines
Vinylidene chloride
Miscellaneous
Lead scavenger
Exports
Total
9,293 million Ib.
Percent of
Amount reported production
8,197
339
212
132
109
10
250
368
9,617a
87.9
3.6
2.3
1.4
1.2
0.1
2.7
4.0
103.2
Includes estimate of EDC production not reported
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc,
estimates.
VI-9
-------
addition to fluorocarbons, C^ chlorocarbon derivatives include tetramethyl
lead, sllicones, solvents, and others which find end uses in polymers,
paints, aerosols, gasoline anti-knock agents, and numerous other end uses.
Table VI-4 summarizes C-^ chlorocarbon derivative end-use applications and
their respective amounts of chlorocarbon intermediates consumed in 1973.
G£ chlorocarbon derivatives likewise find widespread and important
end uses. Most notable is polyvinyl chloride, a versatile and cost-
effective plastic, which accounted for over 4.5 billion pounds or nearly
86 percent of vinyl chloride production in 1973. PVC production alone accounted
for nearly 15 percent of total U.S. chlorine demand in 1973. Other important
C2 chlorpcarbpn derivatives include tetraethyl lead, ethylene amines,
polyvinylidene chloride and others which find end uses in textiles,
gasoline anti-knock compounds, solvents, and in export markets. In
addition,, substantial amounts of two €2 chlorocarbpns, perchloroethylene
and trichloroethylene, are used directly as dry cleaning and metal
decreasing agents. Table VI-5 summarizes 1973 €2 •chlorocarbon derivative
end uses and volumes.
2. Chlorocarbon and Fluorocarbon Product and Material Flows
a. Chlorocarbon Intermediates
Figure VI-2 summarizes in greater detail the product and material
flows of the fluorocarbons under consideration and their intermediate
chlorocarbon precursors, carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, and perchloro-
ethylene. As pointed out in the previous section, these three materials
are only several of the many C^ and €2 chlorocarbon intermediates which are
highly interrelated by virtue of either common primary intermediate
precursors or similar derivative end products. Chloroform and carbon
VI-10
-------
Table VI-4. U.S. PRODUCTION/RAW MATERIALS FOR C., CHLORINATED HYDROCARBONS - 1973
(millions of pounds)
Chlorocarbon production
Chlbrocarbon Consumption
Methyl chloride (544/247)
Tetramethyl lead (235/130)
Silicone (205/110)
Miscellaneous - chemical
intermediates and solvents
(104/57)
Methylene chloride (520/820)
Paint remover, solvent (260/410)
Aerosols (40/65)
Rubber processing (30/45)
Exports and other (190/300)
Chloroform (253/454)
Fluorocarbon 22 (205/368)
Solvents and other chemical
intermediates (48/86)
Carbon tetrachloride (1047/1610)
F-ll (415/640)
F-12 (632/970)
Other (small)
(methyl chloride production/chlorine consumption)
'(methyl chloride use/chlorine equivalent)
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc.
estimates.
VI-11
-------
Table VI-5. U.S. PRODUCTION/RAW MATERIALS FOR C. CHLORINATED HYDROCARBONS- 1973
(millions of pounds)
Chlorocarbon production
Chlorocarbon consumption
Ethylene dichloride (9617/3890)
a
Vinyl chloride (8197/3315)
Trichloroethylene (339/135)
Perchloroethylene (212/85)
Ethylene amines (132/50)
Vinylidene chloride (109/45)
Lead scavenger (250/100)
Exports and miscellaneous (378/160)
Methyl chloroform (548/724)
Metal cleaning and degreasing (384/507)
Vinylidene chloride (44/58)
Exports and other (120/159)
Perchloroethylene (706/1062)
Dry cleaning solvent (424/637)
Textile processing (35/53)
Fluorocarbons (58/88)
Metal cleaning (83/127)
Exports and other (106/157)
Trichloroethylene (452/624)
Metal cleaning (389/537)
Exports (50/69)
Solvents and chemical intermediates
(13/18)
Ethyl chloride (660/100)
Tetraethyl lead (560/85)
Solvents and chemical intermediates
(100/15)
a(ethylene dichloride production/chlorine consumption)
(vinyl chloride use/chlorine equivalent)
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates.
VI-12
-------
CHLOROCARBON
INTERMEDIATES
28Z
CARBON TETHACHLORIDE—•
52%
FtUOROCARBONS
•TRICHLOROauOROMETHANE •
IF-11)
•DlCHLOROOIFLUOROMETHANE •
(F-12)
CHLOROFORM
• CHLOROOlFLUOROMETHANE
(F-32)
PERCHLOROETHTLENE
• TRICKLOROTRIFLUOROETHANE •
(F-113)
• OtCHLOROTETRAFLUOROETHANE •
(F-114)
END PROPUCTS
49Z
28Z
7%
• PROPELLANTS •
• REFRIGERANTS
• SOLVENTS
• PLASTICS AND RESINS
•
*
• FOAM BLOWING AGENTS
EXPORTS AND OTHER
END USES
•PERSONAL PRODUCTS
•HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
• COATINGS AND FINISHES
•INSECT SPRAYS
•FOOD PRODUCTS
OTHER
••REFRIGERATION
-••AIR CONDITIONING
r—— ELECTRONICS
Figure VI-2. Materials Flow Chart -; Fluorocarbons - 1973
OTHER
®
TEFLON PRODUCTS
-*-RIGID FOAM
•-FLEXIBLE FOAM
FIRE EXTINGUISHING AGENT. -
DIELECTRIC FLUID AND OTHER
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
tetrachloride are principally produced via thermal chlorination of methane, while
perchloroethylene is primarily produced from ethylene dichloride which,
as pointed out previously, has other Important derivatives such as poly-
vinyl chloride. Table VI-6 summarizes 1973 production and end-use data for
these three chlorocarbon intermediates.
b. Fluorocarbon End Products
Table VI*-7 summarizes the raw materials requirements for the three
fluorpcarbons F-ll, F-12, and F-22 in 1973 and the indirectly related raw
material requirements for major fluorocarbon end uses. The major fluoro-
carbons F-ll and F-12 are manufactured from carbon tetrachloride, and they
accounted for 40 and 60 percent respectively of carbon tetrachloride domestic use
in 1973. Since industry sources indicate that 10-20 percent of production of
carbon tetrachloride is for other uses including exports, it is believed
that reported production is understated. It is estimated that approximately
415 million pounds of carbon tetrachloride was utilized in 1973 in the
production of F-ll. • The related raw material requirements are 55 million
pounds of hydrofluoric acid and indirectly 370 million pounds of chlorine
required for the production of carbon tetrachloride utilized in the produc-
tion of F-ll. In the related end^use markets, an estimated 615 million
pounds of carbon tetrachloride or 59 percent of 1973 production was required for
the production of F-ll and F-12 for use as aerosol propellants.
Fluorocarbon 22 represents a major portion of the total demand for
chloroform or 81 percent of chloroform production in 1973. A similar analysis
is provided in Table VI-7 on the related requirements for chloroform in its
related end-use markets.
In addition to the importance of the demand for basic chemicals such
as chloroform and carbon tetrachloride in fluorocarbon production, the
VI-14
-------
Table VI-6. U.S. PRODUCTION/RAW MATERIALS FOR
CARBON TETRACHLORIDE, CHLOROFORM, PERCHLOROETHYLENE - 1973
(millions of pounds)
Chlorocarbon production
Chlorocarbon consumption
Carbon tetrachloride
1047
Fll
F12
Other
415
632
Small
Chloroform
253
F22
Solvents, other
205
48
Perchloroethylene
706
Fluorocarbons
Dry cleaning solvent
Textile processing
Metal cleaning
Exports and others
58
424
35
83
106
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
estimates.
VI-15
-------
Table VI-7. U.S. FLUOROCARBON CONSUMPTION OF RAW MATERIALS - 1973
(millions of pounds)
<
H
Chloroform production total
Fluor ocarbon 22
Plastics (PTFE)
Refrigerants
Propellant and other
Export
Other
Carbon tetrachloride
Production total
Fluorocarbon 11
Blowing agent
Propellant
Refrigerant
Export and other
Fluorocarbon 12
Refrigerants
Propellants
Blowing agent
Export and other
Other
t
End-Use
253
50
150
5
11
37
1047
415
65
295
25
30
632
205
320
22
85
Small
Percent
81
4
15
100
39.7
60.3
100
Chlorine demand
454
320
1610
640
970
Percent of total domestic
chlorine demand
2.2
(1.8)
7.7
(3.1)
(4.6)
,
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, and Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates.
-------
related chlorine and hydrofluoric acid demand is significant. As indicated
previously, 9.5 percent of domestic chlorine demand is related to fluorocarbon
production. Also, based on the estimated end-use patterns for the
fluorocarbons, it is estimated that fluorocarbon propellant applications
account for 4.6 .percent of total domestic chlorine demand. Approximately
305 million pounds of hydrofluoric acid were utilized in the production
of F-ll, F-12, and F-13 in 1973. This represents greater than 40 percent of the
total U.S. production of hydrofluoric acid in 1973;
The estimated end-use patterns and levels of consumption of the
principal fluorocarbons are summarized in Table VI-8.
3. Related Business Activities
A summary of the related business activities for fluorocarbons is
summarized in Table VI-9. The basic chemical producers of fluorocarbons
as well as raw material producers of chlorocarbons, i.e., chlorine and
hydrocarbon intermediate manufacturers, and hydrofluoric acid would be
significantly impacted if fluorocarbon use were restricted. In addition
there are a number of related industries which consume fluorocarbons which
would be Impacted including aerosol manufacturers, refrigeration equipment
manufacturers, plastics processing, resin producers and fluorocarbon solvent
consuming industries. Aerosol manufacturing is done by both custom fillers,
which provide the filling capability for aerosol marketers, and by filler/
marketers which have integrated backward from their marketing operations.
VI-17
-------
Table VI-8. PRODUCTION/RAW MATERIAL FOR FLUOROCARBONS - 1973
Raw materials
(million pounds)
Carbon tetrachloride
(415)
HF
(55)
Carbon tetrachloride
(632)
HF
(180)
Chloroform
(205)
HF
(70)
Fluorocarbons
(million pounds)
Fluorocarbon 11 (334)
Fluorocarbon 12 (489)
Fluorocarbon 22 (136)
End uses
(million pounds)
( 53) Foam blowing agent
( 18) Refrigerant
(.23) Export and others
(240) Propellant
(168) Refrigerants |
( 10) Foam
( 61) Export arid other
(25p) Propellant
( 35) Resins
( ll) Propellant and other
( 90) Refrigerants
Fluorocarbons
Percent of total chlorine demand - 9.5
Percent of total chlorine demand for propellants - 4.6
Percent of total HF production 41.6
Percent of total carbon tetrachloride production - 96.5
Percent of total chloroform production 81.0
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, and Arthur D. Little, Inc.
estimates.
VI-18
-------
Table VI-9. RELATED BUSINESS ACTIVITIES - FLUOROCARBONS
CHEMICAL MANUFACTURE SUPPLY SECTORS END-USE INDUSTRIES
Raw Materials Equipment and Materials —: ^- Aerosol Manufacturing
• chlorocarbons producer • can manufacturers • custom filler ^ • aerosol
• hydrofluoric acid & cap & valve manufacturers ® filler/marketer marketer
producer • filling equipment manu-
facturers
• ingredient suppliers
• other
JiUUclJ.1
u
Basic Chemicals Equipment and Materials ^. Refrigeration
fluorocarbons producers • condensor, compressor, heat e refrigeration equipment © contractors
exchange manufacturer manufacturers ^ ® service
e other « household freezer/refrig- » sales
(to all end-use erator manufacturer
|3 industries) ; ,
i- • polyether and poly- Plastics Processing
ester polyols ^ • foam manufacturers
• foam product manufacturer
Resins and Solvents
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.
-------
Also, there are a number of related suppliers of equipment and materials
which may be impacted if fluorocarbon propellent use in aerosols is
restricted. The principally affected sectors would be can manufacturers,
cap and valve manufacturers, ingredient suppliers, and filling equipment
manufacturers. There are obviously a number of other supplier sectors
from packaging to transportation, however, in the context of the proportion
of a total industry sector impacted, these sectors would experience a
much smaller impact.
The refrigeration industry is an important sector which utilizes
fluorocarbons. Potential impact sectors are refrigeration equipment manu-
facturers and household freezer and refrigerator manufacturers. Related
industries are the equipment and materials suppliers including manufacturers
of condensors, compressors, heat exchangers and other refrigeration equipment
parts. In addition, in the end-use sectors there are refrigeration equipment
contractors and service and sales related personnel.
Other fluorocarbon related industries include plastics processing,
resin producers, and solvent users. The principal industry sectors in
plastics processing which may be impacted include the foam manufacturers
and the foam product manufacturers which utilize foam in the manufacture
of products such as pillows, cushions, and furniture, and raw material
suppliers of polyether and polyester polyols. Resin manufacture includes
such products as Du Font's Teflon which is used in a variety of consumer
products. Fluorocarbon solvents are principally used in the aerospace
and electronics industries.
VI-20
-------
C. PRIMARY INDUSTRY SECTOR DEFINITION
This section further defines the primary industry sectors which
would be affected by restrictions on the production or use of fluoro-
carbons and chlorocarbons. Identification efforts have been focused on
those industries which would be directly affected through a loss of
employment, production, and/or sales in relation to the levels which may
have occured without regulation. Therefore, sectors'which may be indi-
rectly affected, such as transportation or carton manufacture, have been
excludedj while industry sectors such as .chemical raw material producers,
aerosol fillers, and refrigeration equipment manufacturers have been
included.
In defining the primary sectors, the levels of sales, production
and employment have been presented where this information is available.
The levels of industry activity directly related to the chemicals under
investigation and their fraction of total sector activity have been
defined (i.e., the proportion of hydrofluoric acid production used in
the manufacture of fluorocarbons). Finally, the major companies involved
in each industry sector have been identified and the estimated importance
of business activities relating to the chemicals under investigation —
relative to overall company activity — has been determined when relevant
data were available. Although individual company effects are identified
in this section and although these effects are small for most companies,
it should be noted that the total economic impact, in terms of inflation
and employment effects at the national level,will be at least as large
as dictated by the sum of these individual parts.
VI-21
-------
1. Raw Materials - Major raw materials for the key compounds of Interest
are discussed below.
a. Chlorine - Chlorine is an important raw material for the production
of the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons under consideration. Table VI-10
summarizes chlorine demand in pertinent end-use markets. As indicated,
depending upon the restrictions placed on fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons,
the potential impact on the chlorine industry can vary significantly.
Also, the potential impact on individual companies will vary extensively
.based on the dependence of a company's chlorine production on production
of certain chlorocarbons and/or fluorocarbons — either through captive
utilization or sales in the merchant market. Other uses of chlorine
include use as a raw material for the production of other organic chemi-
cals and inorganic'chemicals, use in the pulp and paper industry, water
treatment, and miscellaneous applications. There is a high level of
captive use of chlorine production, with an estimated 47 percent of pro-
duction in 1973 being consumed captively by related industries.
The major U.S. producers of chlorine are listed in Table VI-11.
The table shows each producer's production capacity and their relative
share of total U.S. chlorine capacity. Because of a high proportion of
captive utilization, it is difficult to measure individual company sales
of chlorine. For purposes of this report, a manufacturer's value of
production has been determined based on each company's percent of total
Industry capacity and an average production, or "plant gate" sales value
for chlorine based on merchant sales in 1973. The value of chlorine
production as a percent of total company chemical sales is used as a
VI-22
-------
Table VI-10. SELECTED CHLORINE DEMAND CATEGORIES - 1973
End-use category
a
Chlorocarbons (total)
Chlorocarbons (excluding vinyl
chloride)
Methyl chloroform, carbon tetra-
chloride & chloroform**
Chloroform for F-22 and carbon
tetrachloride only
Carbon tetrachloride (indirect
chlorine demand for fluoro-
carbons F-ll & F-12)
Percent
of total
demand
45.6
29.6
13.0
9.5
7.7
Comments
Indicates total chloro-
carbon demand level
Demand level net of the
single largest component
Demand level directly r<
lated to 5 key chemical:
Demand level directly r<
lated to F-ll, F-12, & F-<
Demand level directly r<
lated to F-ll & F-12
Includes methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon
tetrachloride, perchloroethylene, trichloroethylene, methyl chloro-
form, and vinyl chloride.
Includes chlorine demand for chloroform utilized in production of
F-22 and carbon tetrachloride used in production of F-ll and F-12.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates.
VI-23
-------
Table VI-11. U.S. CHLORINE PRODUCERS - 1973
Company
Dow Chemical
PPG Industries
Diamond Shamrock
Occidental Petroleum
Allied Chemical
01 in
BASF Wyandotte
Stauffer Chemical
Pennwalt
FMC
Ethyl Corporation
Kaiser
Shell 0 il
Vulcan Materials
DuPont
B. F. Goodrich
Monsanto
Paper companies
Other
Total
Production (1973)
Capacity a
(million
Ib/yr.)
7,920
2,400
2,304
1,930
1,188
1,170
1,116
706
684
568
460
386
270
270
244
216
180
496
1,888
24,396
20,804
Percent of
total
capacity
31.9%
9.7
9.3
7.8
4.8
4.7
4.5
2.8
2.7
2.3
1.9
1.6
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
2.0
7.6
100.0%
K
Value of
Production
($million)
157.9
47.8
45.9
38.5
23.7
23.3
22.2
14.1
13.6
11.3
9.2
7.7
5.4
5,4
4.9
4.3
3.6
9.9
37.8
486.5
Total
company
chemical
sales
($million)
2,250
440
454
1,080
1,114
370
356
621
246
745
499
N/A
748
62
4,250
452
. 2,355
Value of
production
as a percent
of total
company
chemical
sales
7.0
10.8
10.1
3.6
2.2
2.3
6.2
2.3
5.5
1.5
1.8
0.7
8.7
0.1
1.0
0.2
aCapacity as of January 1, 1975
Based on average value of commercial shipments of $46.77/ton in 1973
Sources; Chemical Marketing Reporter. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Current Industrial
Reports Series M28A; and company annual reports.
VI-24
-------
measure of the Importance of chlorine production to the company's total
chemical sales. Although the total chlorine requirement for the pro-
duction of fluorocarbons F-ll, F-12 and F-22, carbon tetrachloride and
methyl chloroform represents approximately 13 percent of total domestic
chlorine demand, the value of chlorine production related to these com-
pounds is less than one to two percent of total company chemical sales
for most of the chlorine producers. There are instances where a company's
chlorine production is more dependent on these chemicals than the typical
level of several percent. In particular, Vulcan Materials utilizes a
high portion (ca. 15 percent) of its chlorine production for the produc-
tion of chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform. There-
fore, Vulcan's chlorine production level may be more severely affected
than others' if limitations are placed on these chemicals or the fluoro-
carbons derived from them. The details of Vulcan's position (and those
of other manufacturers) are discussed later in this chapter.
The chlorine industry is dominated by Dow Chemical which has. 32
percent of total U.S. capacity. The second largest producer, PPG Indus-
tries, has only 10 percent of U.S. capacity. The industry is relatively
concentrated, with the top seven producers having over 70 percent of
total capacity. Capacity utilization for chlorine production was rela-
tively high in 1974 and chlorine was generally in tight supply. However,
the economic downturn in late 1974 and early 1975, coupled with recent
capacity additions, has reduced industry capacity utilization and has
made the supply of chlorine more plentiful.
Because of the uncertainties surrounding a number of environmental
or health considerations relating to chemicals derived from chlorine
VI-25
-------
(i.e., vinyl chloride and fluorocarbons) and the lead time in constructing
new chlorine production capacity, it is possible that there will be
limited capacity expansions over the next several years. If the economy
turns around as expected in late 1975 and early 1976, chlorine could
again be in tight supply by 1977/78. This could mitigate the impact of
reduced demand resulting from restrictions on the production or use of
certain fluorocarbons or chlorocarbons.
Estimated employment in the production of chlorine is 10,300 employees
based on reported employment in "Chlorine and Alkalis," Census of Manu-
factures, 1972. Related employment for chlorine used in the production
of methyl chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, and chloroform (for fluoro-
carbons only) is an estimated 1,350 employees — pro-rated based on 13.0
percent of total chlorine demand utilized in the production of these three
chlorocarbons.
b. Hydrofluoric Acid - Hydrofluoric acid (HF) is a major raw material in
the production of fluorocarbons. The use of hydrofluoric acid in fluoro-
carbons represents a major portion of the total end-use of hydrofluoric
acid: about 42 percent of the total domestic hydrofluoric acid demand
in 1973. The other major uses of hydrofluoric acid are in the production
of aluminum, in petroleum refining, the production of fluoride salts,
stainless steel pickling, uranium processing, and miscellaneous applica-
tions. Total production of hydrofluoric acid was 731 million pounds in
1973. A large portion of hydrofluoric acid is used captively (50.8 percent
in 1973). The total value of production in 1973 was $135.6 million,
assuming that production is valued at the average price for merchant
VI-26
-------
manufacturer's sales of $18.55 per 100 pounds. The value of production
related to fluorocarbon production was $56.3 million in 1973 (42 percent
of total value).
Table VI-12 presents the major U.S. producers of hydrofluoric acid
and their production capacities. In addition, the table shows estimated
value of HF production (based on each producer's proportional share of
total production) and the value of production as a percent of each com-
pany's total chemical sales in 1973. One fact stands out: the value of
production of hydrofluoric acid for Essex Chemical was 19.5 percent of
total chemical sales, a substantial portion of the total company chemical
sales in 1973. A large portion of Essex's hydrofluoric acid production
is utilized in the production of fluorocarbons via a partially owned
subsidiary, Racon.
Production of hydrofluoric acid in the U.S. is highly concentrated.
Allied Chemical and DuPont share over 50 percent of U.S. production
capacity. As indicated above, a large portion of hydrofluoric acid pro-
duction is utilized in the manufacture of fluorocarbons. Furthermore,
some companies are more dependent on the production of fluorocarbons than
others. Essex Chemical is an example of one of these companies. On the
other hand, producers of hydrofluoric acid such as Alcoa and Kaiser would
be less severely affected because their production of hydrofluoric acid
is predominantly used in the production of aluminum.
Total estimated employment in the production of hydrofluoric acid
is 800. Employment related to the production of fluorocarbons (F-ll,
F-12, F-22) is estimated to be 330 based on the percent of total HF pro-
duction used in the production of fluorocarbons (41.6 percent).. A
VI-27
-------
Table VI-12. U.S. HYDROFLUORIC ACID PRODUCERS - 1973
Producer
Allied Chemical
DuPont
Alcoa
Kaiser
Pennwalt
Harshaw Chemical
(Division of Kewanee Oil)
Stauffer Chemical
01 in
Essex Chemical
Total
Production
Capacity
( million
Ih/vr.l
216
200
110
100
50
36
36
26
32
796
731. O1
Value of a
production
($millipn)
36.8
34.1
18.7
17.0
8.5
6.1
6.1
4.4
3.7
135.4
Total
company
chemical
sales
($million)
1,114
4,250
N/A
N/A
246
140
621
370
19
Value of
production
as a percent
of total
company
chemical
Sales
3.3%
0.8
3.4
4.4
1.0
1.2
19.5
91.8% capacity utilization
Fluorocarbon
F-ll
F-12
F-2?
Production
(million Ib)
333.8
489
136.5
HF Consumption
(million Ib)
55
180
70
305
Percent of
total HF
7.5%
24.6
9.5
41.6%
aBased on $18.55/100 Ib in 1973
Sources: Chemical Marketing Reporter. U.S. International Trade Commission,
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Current Industrial Reports Series M28A;
company annual reports; and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
VI-28
-------
summary of estimated employment in the production of hydrofluoric acid
is presented in Table VI-13.
The hydrofluoric acid producers operated under a high level of
capacity utilization in 1973: 91.8 percent of total domestic capacity.
In 1974 capacity utilization dropped to approximately 80 percent of
total capacity because of reduced demand for fluorocarbons and aluminum.
Historic growth over the 1963-1973 time period for hydrofluoric acid was
approximately 7.5 percent per year. Future growth of hydrofluoric acid
is expected to be lower than historical levels. One reason is that in
the aluminum industry hydrofluoric acid is being replaced by fluosilicic
acid. Also, the recycling of fluorides in waste water treatment programs
is reducing demand for hydrofluoric acid. Finally, increased imports
from Mexico and Canada are expected to replace future domestic production
growth of hydrofluoric acid.
VI-29
-------
Table VI-13. EMPLOYMENT IN HYDROFLUORIC ACID PRODUCTION
Production workers
Sales, technical and
Other overhead staff
Total employment in
HF production
Total HF
Related to
Fluorocarbon
Production
Million Pounds of
production per employee
1.3
3.0
HF production
(million Ib)
731
731
305
Employment
560
240
800'
330
Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Current Industrial Reports Series M28A;
and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on discussions with
industry.
VI-30
-------
2. Basic Chemicals
a. Fluorocarbons - There are six companies in the United States presently
manufacturing fluorocarbons, of which three companies account for 85 percent
of total domestic capacity. DuPont, Allied Chemical, and Union Carbide are
the principal producers with 41.8 percent, 25.9 percent and 16.7 percent
respectively of domestic capacity in 1973.
The total manufacturer's value of fluorocarbons was $242.1 million in 1973
as shown in Table VI-14. This value of fluorocarbon production is an estimate,
since each producer manufacturers a different proportion of the various fluoro-
carbons. It is assumed that the average value of fluorocarbons production
at the manufacturer's level was 25.2$ per pound in 1973. The historical
growth rate of fluorocarbon production from 1962-1972 has been 8 percent
annually. Future growth had been estimated at 5 percent per year, assuming
unrestricted use.
Table VI-15 summarizes the chemicals sales of the major producers of
fluorocarbons and their related value of production of fluorocarbons.
Fluorocarbon production value ranges from 30.8 percent of total chemical sales
for Racon in 1973 to 9.5 percent and 5.6 percent of total chemical sales in
1973 for Pennwalt and Allied Chemical. For the remaining companies the
value of production of fluorocarbons represents less than 3 percent of total
company chemical sales.
Estimated employment in the production of fluorocarbons is 2200-2700
employees. This estimate is based on industry contacts and on an estimate
determined through related employment figures in the Census of Manufactures,
1972. The production of fluorocarbons represents 2.7 percent of the total
VI-31
-------
Table VI-14. U.S. FLUOROCARBON MANUFACTURERS -1973
<
M
K>
acity (million Ib/yr)
cent of U.S. capacity
duction (million Ib/yr)
ufacturer's value
$million)
Allied
Chemical
310
25.9%
248
$62.7
DuPont
500
41.8%
401
$101.5
Kaiser
50
4.2%
40
$10.1
Pennwalt
115
9.6%
92
$23.3
Racon
20
1.7%
16
$4.0
Union
Carbide
200
16.7%
160
$40.5
TOTAL
1,195
100%
957
b
$242.1
aincludes F-ll, F-12, F-22
manufacturer's value based on 1975 price is estimated at $450-500 million
Sources: Chemical Marketing Reporter., U.S. International Trade Commission, and Arthur D. Little,
Inc., estimates.
-------
Table VI-15. DEPENDENCE OF MANUFACTURERS ON FLUOROCARBON SALES
OJ
u>
Company
Allied Chemical
DuPont
Kaiser
Pennwalt
Racon a
Union Carbide
Total chemical sales
(1973, $ million)
$1,114
4,250
375
246
13
2,400
Value of fluoro carbon
production
($ million)
$62.7
101.5
10.1
23.3
4.0
40.5
Percent of total
chemical sales
5.6%
2.4
2.7
9.5
30.8
1.7
aRacon's sales are 100% dependent on fluorocarbons; manufacturer's value of production
understates actual retail sales level.
Sources: Corporate annual reports, and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
value of shipments of Industrial Organic Chemicals, N.E.C. Based on this
proportion, employment In fluorocarbon production Is an estimated 2700
employees, Including production workers and related employment.
VI-34
-------
b. Chlorocarbons - An analysis of the chlorocarbon industry in the United
States shows that nearly the entire volume of the nine& chlorocarbons dis-
cussed below were produced by fourteen companies in 1973. Of these four-
teen companies, eight manufacture five or more of the chlorocarbons. However,
for individual chemicals, the industry is often dominated by a few large
chemical companies. Over 70 percent of these chlorocarbons are used as a
chemical intermediate in the production of other chemicals, although if
ethylene dichloride use for the production of vinyl chloride is excluded,
approximately 30 percent of these chlorocarbons are used as chemical inter-
mediates. Therefore, there is often a high level of captive use of the
chlorocarbons and the value of production is included in the final product
produced. Since it is difficult to determine a company's captive use vs.
merchant sales (this information is generally proprietary), the manufac-
turer's value of production has been determined for each company's pro-
duction of chlorocarbons as a measure of their importance in relation to
each producer's total chemical sales.
TableVI-16 summarizes estimated production and manufacturer's value of
carbon tetrachloride for the principal producers. These estimates are pro-
rated based on each producer's share of production capacity and an estimated
average production value for carbon tetrachloride in 1973. The estimated
Q
Carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, ethyl chloride, ethylene dichloride,
methyl chloride, methyl chloroform, methylene chloride, perchloroethylene,
and trichloroethylene. Vinyl chloride is treated separately at the end of
this section.
VI-.35
-------
Table VI-16. U.S. CARBON TETRACHLORIDE MANUFACTURERS - 1973
Capacity (million Ib/yr)
Percent of total U.S. capacity
Production (million Ib/yr)
f*
Production value ($ million)
Allied
Chemical
8
0.5
5
0.3
Dow
275
17.4
182
10.9
DuPont
500
31.7
332
19.9
FMC
300
19.0
199
11.9
Stauffer
420
26.6
279
16.7
Vulcan
Jteterials
75
4.8
50
3.0
Total
1578
100
1047
62.7
M
U)
a
1975 capacity estimates.
Based on proportional share of total domestic capacity.
Based on average price of merchant sales in 1973.
Sources: Directory of Chemical Producers, U.S. International Trade Commission, and
Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
total manufacturer's value of carbon tetrachloride produced in the United
States was $62.7 million in 1973. The estimate for DuPont is overstated
because, DuPont's carbon tetrachloride production capacity was operating
well below reported capacity estimates in 1973.
U.S. production of carbon tetrachloride has grown at an average annual
rate of 7.3 percent from 1963-1973 and 6.8 percent from 1968-1973 with even
lower growth in recent years. Future growth has been anticipated to con-
tinue at about 5 percent per year through 1977, however, carbon tetrachlo-
ride growth is dependent on fluorocarbon growth which is currently unpre-
dictable.
The principal United States producers of chloroform and their
related production capacities are summarized in Table VI-17. There are six
domestic producers while two producers, Dow and Sfcauffer, have 42.2 percent
and 24.4 percent respectively or 66.6 percent of total domestic capacity.
The estimated production value of chloroform was $17.7 million for 1973 and
j { .
the producers operated at an estimated 82 percent of production capacity.
Since the production capacities are flexible, the capacity utilization esti-
mate is based on reported capacities and does not'reflect the producers
ability to shift production to other coproducts in the thermochlorination
process.
U.S. production of chloroform increased at an average annual rate of
9.2 percent between 1963 and 1973. Growth over the last five years has been
only 6.8 percent per year,and at an even lower rate recently. Ultimately
the demand for chloroform depends on the demand for fluorocarbon refrigerants
VI-37
-------
Table VI-17. u-s- CHLOROFORM MANUFACTURERS - 1973
Capacity (million
pounds per year)
Percent of total
U.S. capacity
Production (million
pounds per year)
Production value
($ million)
Allied
Chemical
30
9.7
25
1.7
Diamond
Shamrock
18
5.8
.15
1.0
Dow
130
42.2
107
7.5
DuPont
15
4.9
12
0.9
Stauffer
75
24.4
62
4.3
Vulcan
Materials
40
13.0
33
2.3
Total
308
100
254
17.7
OJ
oo
Sources: Directory of Chemical Producers, U.S. International Trade Commision, and
Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
and for fluorocarboo plastics. Demand is expected to grow at an average
rate of 5 percent per year over the next five years with the largest pro-
portional increase from the increased production of fluorocarbon polymers.
This forecast assumes no limitations are placed on fluorocarbons for use
in refrigeration or plastics.
Ethyl chloride is produced by six companies in the United States with
Ethyl Corporation,the major producer,having over 40 percent of total pro-
duction capacity. The major producers and related capacities are summa-
rized in Table VI-18. The estimated production value of ethyl chloride in
1973 was $46.3 million and producers were operating at 77 percent of capa-
city. Since ethyl chloride is principally used as a chemical intermediate
in the production of tetraethyl lead, there is a high level of captive con-
sumption (59 percent in 1973).
Growth in production of ethyl chloride has been static over the past
five years because of environmental pressures against tetraethyl lead.
Future growth is uncertain, and is dependent on environmental restric-
tions on leaded gasoline as well as reduced growth in demand for gasoline
as a result of energy conservation efforts.
Ethylene dichloride is the most important chlorocarbon in terms of
. \
production volume and market value. The reported sales value is low be-
cause of the large amount of captive use of the product (which was 85 percent
in 1973) but estimated production value was $279.3 million (see TableVI-19).
VI-39.
-------
TableVI-18. U.S. ETHYL CHLORIDE MANUFACTURERS - 1973
Capacity (million pounds per
year)
Percent of total U.S. capacity
Production (million pounds
per year)
Production value ($ million)
American
Chemical3
110
12.8
85
5.9
Dow
75
8.7
57
4.0
DuPont
110
12.8
85
5.9
Ethyl
Corp.
360
41.9
277
19.4
PPG
120
14.0
92
6.5
'
Shell
85
9.9
65
4.6
Total
860
100
661
46.3
<
l-l
I
o
a American Chemical has been consolidated into Stauffer Chemical Corporation
Sources: Directory of Chemical Producers, U.S. International Trade Commission, and
Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
Table VI-19. U.S. ETHYLENE BICHLORIDE MANUFACTURERS - 1973
Capacity
(million :"
pounds per
year)
Percent of '•
total U.S..
capacity
Production
(million
pounds per
year)
Production
Value
($ million)
Allied
Chemical
650
5.3
:493
14.8
American
Chera.
Corp.3
235
<••
1.9
177
5.3
Conoco
1000
8.2
762
"22.9
Diamond
Shamrock
-260
2.1
195
5.9
Dow
3560
29.0
2695
80.9
Ethyl
Corp.
810
*•
6.6
613
18.4
B.F.
Goodrich
900
7.3
-
678
20.4
Jefferson
Chem. Co.
70
0.6
56
-
1.7 .
PPG
1835
15.0
1394
41.8
Shell
2400
-'
19.6
1821
54.6
Union
Carbide
300
2.5
232
7.0
Vulcan
Materials
240
2.0
186
• 5.6
-.
Total
12,260
100
9,302
279.3
..
American Chemical has been consolidated into Stauffer Chemical Corporation.
joint venture with Texaco and American Cyanatnid: no longer a producer.
Sources: Directory of Chemical Producers, U.S. International Trade Commission, and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
There are twelve producers of ethylene dichloride, although the three
largest manufacturers have 64 percent of domestic production capacity. Dow,
Shell, and PPG Industries had 29 percent, 20 percent and 15 percent of
domestic production capacity respectively in 1973. Based on reported pro-
t-
duction, the industry was operating at approximately 75 percent of capacity
in 1973.
U.S. production of ethylene dichloride had an annual average growth
rate of 16 percent between 1960 and 1973. Future growth by the industry
is estimated to be 8-9 percent per year. The demand for ethylene dichloride
depends heavily on demand for vinyl chloride which consumes greater than
85 percent of the ethylene dichloride production. Environmental pressures
may reduce demand for ethylene dichloride for vinyl chloride and trichloro-
ethylene production. In addition, the demand for ethylene dichloride as
a lead scavenger may be reduced if the trend toward unleaded gasoline con-
tinues.
Methyl chloride and methylene chloride producers and related capacities
are summarized in Table VI-20. There are eleven producers of methyl chloride,
although four producers have 73.5 percent of total production capacity. Dow,
Conoco, DuPont and Ethyl Corporation have 34.0 percent, 15.5 percent,
12.4 percent and 11.6 percent of domestic capacity respectively. The pro-
duction value of methyl chloride for these eleven companies was $32.8 million
in 1973, and capacity utilization was 84 percent of total domestic capacity.
Since methyl chloride is principally used as a chemical intermediate, there
was a high level of captive use (greater than 50 percent) in 1973.
VI-42
-------
Table VI-20. U.S. METHYL CHLORIDE AND METHYLENE CHLORIDE MANUFACTURERS - 1973
Methyl Chloride
Capacity (million
pounds per year)
Percent of total
U.S. capacity
Production (million
pounds per year)
Production Value
($ million)
Methylene Chloride
Capacity (million
pounds per year)
Percent of total
U.S. capacity
Production (million
pounds per year)
Production Value
($ million)
Allied
Chemical
25
3.9
21
1.3
50
9.4
49
3.9
Conoco
100
15.5
84
5.1
-
-
-
—
Diamond
Shamrock
25
3.9
21
1.3
60
11.3
59
4.7
Dow
220
34.0
185
11.1
240
45.3
236
18.8
Dow
Corning
35
5.4
29
1.7
10
1.9
10
0.8
DuPont
80
12.4
68
4.1
40
7.6
40
3.2
Ethyl
Corp.
75
11.6
63
3.8
-
-
-
—
General
Electric
20
3.1
17
1.0
-
-
-
^
Stauffer
15
2.3
13
0.8 -
60
11.3
59
4.7
Union
Carbide
50
7.7
42
2.5
-
-
-
—
Vulcan
Materials
2
0.3
1
0.1
70
13.2
.69
5.5
Total
647
100
544
32.8
530
100
522
41.6
<
M
*«
Sources: Directory of Chemical Producers. U.S. International Trade Commission, and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
U.S. production of methyl chloride increased at an average annual
rate of 15 percent between 1962 and 1972, however, since 1969 it has av-
eraged only 4 percent growth per year. The slow rate of growth in recent
years is due to uncertain demand from the tetramethyl lead end-use sector.
However, a surplus of methyl chloride does not exist in the market and
supplies are currently snug due to limited availability of methanol. The
future of the tetramethyl lead market plus the availability of methanol
will affect future growth of methyl chloride most significantly and probably
will limit it to moderate to static growth.
Methylene chloride had an estimated production value of $41.6 million:
in 1973 with a small captive usage of approximatley 10 percent. There
are seven producers with four companies having greater than 80 percent of
total capacity. Capacity utilization was an estimated 98 percent in 1973.
U.S. production of methylene chloride has grown at an average annual
rate of 13 percent between 1963 and 1973. This average rate has slowed
during the last five years when growth of methylene chloride production
declined to 12 percent per year. However, exports seem to have accounted
for a large measure of this growth. Anticipated future growth for methylene
chloride consumption is forecast at an average of 8 percent per year.
The producers of methyl chloroform and their related production capa-
cities are summarized in Table VI-21. The production of methyl chloroform
is high concentrated with only four domestic producers. Two companies,
Dow Chemical and PPG Industries, account for 81.8 percent of U.S. production
capacity with 54.8 percent and 27.8 percent of total capacity respectively.
VI-44
-------
Table VI-21. U.S. METHYL CHLOROFORM MANUFACTURERS -1973
Capacity (million Ib/yr)
Percent of total U.S.
capacity
Production (million Ib/yr)
Production value ($million)
Dow
340
54.0
244
22.0
Ethyl
Corp.
50
7.9
36
3.2
PPG
175
27.8
126
11.3
Vulcan
Materials
65
10.3
47
4.2
Total
630
100%
453
40.7
Sources: Directory of Chemical Producers. U.S. International Trade
Commission, and Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates.
VI-45
-------
Methyl chloroform producers were operating at an estimated 71.7 percent of
total capacity In 1973»with a total production value of $40.7 million.
In the past decade methyl chloroform has experienced a 15 percent
average annual growth rate. Industry estimates place future growth rates
at 8 percent annually, although the outlook depends upon environmental con-
siderations. Methyl chloroform is a substitute product, in some aspects
of metal cleaning, for trichloroethylene which has come under increasingly
restricted use because of air pollution control regulations. If further
restrictions are placed upon trichloroethylene, the demand for methyl
chloroform could increase at greater than 8 percent per year assuming there
are no environmental restrictions placed on methyl chloroform as well.
The domestic producers of perchloroethylene and trichloroethylene and
their related capacities are shown in Table VI-22. The production of tri-
chloroethylene is concentrated with five principal producers in the United
States. PPG Industries and Dow Chemical also dominate the production of
trichloroethylene with 45 percent and 24 percent of domestic production
capacity respectively. The total production value for trichloroethylene
was $31.8 million in 1973, and capacity utilization was approximately
73 percent.
Trichloroethylene has grown at an average annual rate of approximately
2 percent from 1963-1973. Industry estimates range from no growth to a
6 percent decline through 1977. In 1966 trichloroethylene was restricted
under Los Angeles' Rule 66 as a measure to control air pollution. Since
1966, other states have passed similar legislation and producers' have put
off planned capacity expansions.
VI-46
-------
Table VI-22. U-S. TRICHLOROETHYLENE AND PERCHLOROETHYLENE MANUFACTURERS - 1973
Trichloroethylene
Capacity (million pounds
per year)
Percent of total U.S.
capacity
Production (million pounds
per year)
Production value ($million
Perchloroethylene
Capacity (million pounds
per year)
Percent of total U.S.
capacity
Production (million
pounds per year)
Production value ($million
Diamond
Shamrock
100
16.1
73
5.1
160
15.7
111
6.6
Dow
Chemical
150
24.2 c
109
7.7
290
28.4
201
12.0
Ethyl
Corp.
50
8. 17
37
2.6
50
4.9
35
2,1
Occidental/
Hooker Chemical
40
6.5 ..
29
2.1
50
4.9
35
2.1
PPG
280
45.2
204
14.3
200
19.6
138
8.3
Stauffer
-
—
-
-
-
70
6.9
49
2.9
Vulcan
Materials
— •
•
200
19.6
138
8.3
Total
620
100
452
31.8
1020
100
707
42.3
M
I
Sources: Chemical Marketing Reporter, U.S. International Trade Commission, and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
Production of perchloroethylene is less concentrated than that of
trichloroethylene, with seven domestic producers. Three producers account
for 67.6 percent of total capacity and Dow, PPG Industries and Vulcan
Materials have 28.4 percent, 19.6 percent and 19,6 percent of capacity
respectively. The 1973 production value of perchloroethylene was $42.3
million and estimated capacity utilization wa.s 69 pt>rc<:ut in 1973.
For the past decade perchloroethylene production has grown at an
average annual growth rate of 8 percent. The future outlook depends upon
the dry cleaning market which is expected to grow .it 4-5 percent annually.
If increased environmental restrictions are placed on trichloroethylene,
perchloroethylene could potentially benefit as a partial replacement for
trichloroethylene.
Employment in the production of the nine chlorocarbons discussed above
is an estimated 6,600 employees including both direct and related production
n • • '
personnel. The employement estimate is based on industry contacts as well
as data from the Census of Manufacturers, 1972. The production value of the
nine chlorocarbons represents 6.6 percent of the total value of shipment in
SIC 2869, "Industrial Organic Chemicals, N.E.I':."
Table VI-23 summarizes the principal producers of chlorocarbons, their
total chemical sales in 1973 and related value of domestic production of
chlorocarbons. Included is a summary of the value o.f various chlorocarbons
as a percent of these companies' total chemical sales. For example, the-
combined value of production of chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, and methyl
Based on 100,400 employees engaged in the production of industrial
organic chemicals.
VI-43
-------
Table VI-23 U.S. CHLOROCARBON INDUSTRY - 1973
Company
Allied Chemical
American Chemical**
Conoco
Diamond Shamrock
Dow Chemical
Dow Corning
DuPont
FMC
Ethyl Corp.
General Elec.
B.F. Goodrich
Jefferson Chemical
Occidental
PPG
Shell Oil
Stauffer
Union Carbide
Vulcan Materials
Total
Chemical
Sales
(1973)
($ million)
1,114
621
221
454
2,250
NA
4,250
745
499
NA
452
NA
1,080
440
748
621
2,400
62
Value of3
Chlorocarbon
Production
($ million)
22.0
11.2
28.0
24.6
174.9
2.5
34.0
11.9
49.5
1.0
20.4
1.7
4.2
82.2
59.2
29.4
9.5
29.0
% of Total
Chemical
Sales
2.0
1.8
12.7
5.4
7.8
NA
0.8
1.6
9.9
NA
4.5
-
0.4
18.7
7.9
4.7
0.4
46.8
Value of Chloro-
carbon Production
Excluding Ethylene
Dichloride
($ million)
7.2
5.9
5.1
18.7
94.0
2.5
34.0
11.9
31.1
1.0
-
-
4.2
40.4
4.6
29.4
2.5
23.4
% of
Total
Chemical
Sales
0.6
.1.0
2.3
4.1
4.2
NA
0.8
1.6
6.2
NA
-
-
0.4
9.2
0.6
4.7
0.1
37.7
Value of
chloroform,
carbon tetra-
chloride .methyl
chloroform
($ million)
2.0
0
-
1.0
40.4
-
20.8
11.9
3.2
-
-
-
-
11.3
-
21.0
-
9.5
% of
Total
Chemical
Sales
0.2
0
-
0.2
1.8
-
0.5
1.6
0.6
-
-
-
-
2.6
-
3.4
-
15.3
^includes methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform,
<
V
VO
perchloroethylene, trichloroethylene, ethylene dichloride, ethyl chloride
^American Chemical lias "been consolidated into Stauffer Chemical Corporation.
Sources: Corporate annual reports and Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates.
-------
chloroform range from 0.2 percent of chemical sales for Allied Chemical to
15.3 percent of chemical sales for Vulcan Materials.
Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) is produced by a total of ten companies
with capacity, as of June 1974, of 6-8 billion pounds per year. There
is considerable concentration in the industry as the three largest firms
control about 56 percent of the capacity while the five largest control
nearly 80 percent.
All but two of the VCM manufacturers produce the product by dehydro-
chlorinating (removing hydrogen chloride from) dry ethylene dichloride
(EDC). This process accounts for 92 percent of the VCM capacity. The
remaining capacity at two other plants produces VCM by adding hydrogen
chloride to acetylene in a reactor. This latter process is the oldest
commercial process for producing VCM but it has been gradually phased out
because economics favor ethylene as a raw hydrocarbon feedstock over
acetylene.
Over the last 10 years the production of VCM has grown at an annual
rate of about 13 percent from a level of 1.6 billion pounds in 1964.
The most phenomenal growth occurred during the latter part of the 1960's
when production increased at a rate of over 18 percent per year. Since
1970 the rate of growth has been less than 9 percent per year.
In 1975, PVC homopolymer and copolymer-resins were produced by 21
companies at 38 plants (see Table VI-24). of the 21 companies, between
two and six produced only copolymers at a total of 11 plants. As was the
case with the VCM industry, a few firms account for much of the total
capacity. Five companies control approximately 51 percent of total industry
capacity while the nine largest account for about 71 percent.
VI-50
-------
Table VI-24. PRODUCING COMPANIES, PLANT LOCATION, AND CAPACITIES-PVC HOMOPOLYMER
RESINS
Producing Company
Plant location
Capacity-May, 1975
(millions of pounds/year)
Air Products, Inc.
Borden, Inc.
Continental Oil Co.
Diamond Shamrock Corp.
Ethyl Corp.
Firestone Tire Co.
General Tire Co.
Georgia-Pacific Corp.
B. F. Goodrich Co.
Goodyear Tire Co.
Great American Chemi-
cal Corp.
Keysor-Century Corp.
b
Monsanto Co.
Occidental Petroleum
Corp. (Hooker Chemical
Pantasote Co.
Calvert City, Kentucky
Pensacola, Florida
Illiopolis, Illinois
Leominster, Massachusetts
Aberdeen, Mississippi
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Delaware City, Delaware
Deer Park, Texas
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Perryville, Maryland
Pottstown, Pennsylvania
Ashtabula, Ohio
Point Pleasant, W. Va.
Plaquemine, Louisiana
Avon Lake, Ohio
Henry, Illinois
Long Beach, California
Louisville, Kentucky
Pedricktown, New Jersey
Niagara Falls, New York
Plaquemine, Louisiana
Fitchburg, Massachusetts
Saugus, California
Springfield, Massachusetts
Burlington, New Jersey
Hicksville, New York
Passaic, New Jersey
Point Pleasant, W. Va.a
135
75
140
180
260
220
115
270
180
230
270
125
50
220
260
220
115
145
140
100
105
70
35
70
168
15
60
50
Source: EPA, details on following page.
VI-51
-------
Table VI-24 (cont.) PRODUCING COMPANIES, PLANT LOCATION, AND CAPACITIES-
PVC HOMOPOLYMER RESINS
Producing Company
Plant Location
Capacity-May, 1975
(millions of pounds/year)
Robintech, Inc.
Shintech, Inc.
Stauffer Chemical Co.
Tenneco Chemicals, Inc.
Union Carbide Corp.
Uniroyal, Inc.
Painesville, Ohio
Freeport, Texas
Delaware City, Delaware
Long Beach, California
Burlington, New Jersey
Flemington, New Jersey
Pasadena, Texas
South Charleston, W.Va.
Texas City, Texas
Painesville, Ohio
TOTAL
250
220
175
150
165
70
240
160
300
108
5,861
a. 100 million tons per year plant at Point Pleasant.
b . Monsanto has announced it will close its plant by the end of 1975.
c. Shintech is a joint venture of Robintech and Shin-Etsu Chemical
Industry Company Ltd. of Tokyo.
d. Stauffer purchased remaining 50 percent interest of the American
Chemical Co. from Arco in 1974.
Sources: Chemical Marketing Reporter, May 20, 1974; Modern Plastics.
January 1975, p. 58; Non-confidential data supplied by
industry under Section 114 of the Clean Air Act.
VI-52
-------
There is a limited amount of vertical integration within the PVC
industry from the production of EDC through resin processing. Two companies
produce all four products (i.e., EDC, VCM, PVC homopolymer, PVC copolymer)
while another five companies manufacture three of the four products. In
addition, 11 companies produce two of the four products.
Over the last 10 years PVC consumption has grown at an annual rate of
around 11 percent, from a level of 1.6 billion pounds in 1964 to roughly
4.7 billion pounds in 1974. However, the growth has been somewhat erratic.
From 1966 to 1971 PVC consumption grew at a nine percent annual rate, but in
1972 consumption increased by more than 27 percent over the 1971 level.
Consumption in 1973 rose another 9.7 percent before leveling off in 1974.
The lack of detailed financial information for privately held corpora-
tions and profit data by vinyl chloride and polyvinyl chloride output
for publicly held firms make an assessment of the impact of a ban on
vinyl chloride difficult. For 25 firms, dependency on vinyl chloride
and polyvinyl chloride production can be approximated by relating estimated
vinyl chloride and polyvinyl chloride sales to total sales (Table VI-25).
It should be recognized, however, that the estimated percentage of vinyl
chloride and polyvinyl chloride sales are not necessarily the same as the
estimated percentage of profits. Based on the information on sales, three
of the 25 firms are judged to be highly dependent upon vinyl chloride and
polyvinyl chloride production, [Pantasote (19 percent), Great American
Chemical Corporation (43 percent) and .Robintech (68 percent)].
VI-53
-------
Table VI-25. ESTIMATED DEPENDENCE OF MANUFACTURERS ON PVC SALES
I
in
Finn
Air Products and Chemical
Allied Chemical Corporation
C
Borden, Inc.
Continental Oil
Diamond Shamrock
Dow Chemical d
Ethyl Corporation
Firestone Tire Company
General Tire
Georgia Pacific '
B.F. Goodrich Company
Goodyear Tire Company
W. R. Graced
Great American Chemical Corp.
Keysor-Century
Monochem, Inc.
Capacities
(Millions of Pounds
Ethylene Vinyl
Bichloride Chloride
0
650
0
1000
110
3560
810
0
0
0
1000
-
-
-
-
-
0
340
0
730
0
1220
420
0
0
0
1000
-
-
-
-
300
Per Year)
Polyvinyl
Chloride
210
0
320
480
385
150
180
500
175
220
880
205
300
70
35
-
a —
Revenues Dependent on PVC
(Millions of 1973 Dollars )
Ethylene Vinyl Polyvinyl
Dichloride Chloride Chloride
-
3.00
-
2.35 12.5
-
81.62 53.50
4.32 12.0
-
-
-
6.00
. _
-
-
-
15.00
31.50
17.10
64.00
72.00
55.50
22.50
27.00
75.00
25.88
33.00
132.00
30.75
45.00
6.00
5.25
-
Total
31.50
20.10
64.00
86.85
55.50
157.62
43.32
75.00
25.88
33.00
138.00
30.75
45.00
6.00
5.25
15.00
Total
1973
Sales
Revenues
398.9
1501.0
2554.0
4510.0
667.1
3067.9'
713.7
3154.9
1380.0
2228.7
1661.0
4675.3
. 2807.8
14.04
HA
NA .
Percent si. les
Dependent
on PVCfe
8
1
3
2
8
5
6
2
2
1
8
1
2
43
NA
NA
Source: EPA, based on contractors' reports and industry contacts. See notes on following page.
-------
Table VI-25(corit.)• ESTIMATED DEPENDENCE OF MANUFACTURERS ON PVC SALES
V
Firm
Monsanto
d
Morton - Norwich
Occidental Petroleum
Fantasote
PPG Industries
Robintech
Shell Oil Company
Stauffer Chemical Company . •
Tenneco Chemical Inc.
Union Carbide •
Uniroyal Inc.
Vulcan Materials
Capacities
(Millions of Pounds
Ethylene Vinyl
Bichloride Chloride
-
-
-
-
1835
2365
. .300
-
300
-
240
-
-
-
-
800
-
1600
170
255
-
-
'-
Per Year)
Polyvinyl
Chloride
70
150
183
108
-
250
-
325
415
460
108
-
Revenues Dependent on PVC"*
(Millions of 1973 Dollars )
Ethylene Vinyl Polyvinyl
Dichloride Chloride Chloride
10.50
22.50
26.45
16.20
21.80 40.0
250
70.0
1.00 48.75
1.00 35.25
60.00
16.20
13.50
Total
10.50
22.50
26.45
16.20
61.80
37.50
70.00
49.75
36.25
69.00
16.20
13.50
Total
1973
Sales
Revenues
2648
407
1980.4
86.79
1512.6
55.51
5749.6
NA
3940.0
3938.8
2090.0
325.3
Percent, sales
Dependent
on PVcb
negligible
6
3
19
4
68
1
NA
1
2
1
4
a. Estimated on the following assumptions: $.05/lb for EDC and VC; $.15/lb for general purpose PVC; it takes 1.58 Ibs.
of EDC to make a Ib of VC; it takes 1 Ib of VC to make a Ib of PVC; operating rate 100 percent; and intra-companv
transfer of EDC and for VC revealed in the price of end product. Ex. Allied Chemical Corp.
[600-(342 x 1.58)] x $.05 + 342 x $.05 - 3.00 + 17.10 = 20.10
b.
Total Revenues Dependent on PVC + Total 1973 Sales Revenues.
C. Revenues were adjusted to reflect the price of the copolymer (vinyl acetate) produced here. Price of that PVC copolymer
was $.20/lb.
d. Plant capacity was not known. For each plant a 150 million pound/year capacity was assumed.
Source: EPA, based on contractors' reports and industry contacts.
-------
The direct employment impacts of a vinyl chloride and polyvinyl chloride
ban are not known. However, estimates of total vinyl chloride and polyvinyl
chloride plant employment are available, and indicate that 1,000 people are
employed in vinyl chloride production. Banning vinyl chloride production
would end the need for the services of these people. Although many skills
used in vinyl chloride production are readily transferable to other industries,
the extent of this transfer availability is not known, and it would not be
immediate.
In the polyvinyl chloride industry, approximately 5,000 workers are
employed. As in the vinyl chloride industry, many workers' skills are
transferable. But, again, the degree to which these transfers are available
or will occur is not known.
For vinyl chloride plants, the immediate regional impacts of a pro-
duction ban would be primarily upon the areas of southeastern Texas and
southern Louisiana where 12 out of the 15 vinyl chloride plants are located.
In certain instances, vinyl chloride output goes to other regions. In these
cases, multiplier impacts in terms of decreased output, unemployment, and
lower income could be expected.
For polyvinyl chloride plants, the immediate impact of a production
ban would be more dispersed geographically. Although some polyvinyl
chloride plants are located in the southeast Texas/southern Louisiana area,
most are located in the eastern part of Delaware, New Jersey, New York and
Massachusetts. As in the vinyl chloride case, multiplier impacts would
occur.
VI-56
-------
The indirect impacts of a ban on vinyl chloride and polyvinyl chloride
production would be primarily upon the raw material suppliers (ethylene
dichloride producers send about 78 percent of their output to vinyl chloride
and polyvinyl chloride markets) and product output receivers (fabricators).
For the vinyl chloride and polyvinyl chloride fabricating business,
it is estimated that the number of fabricators is 8,000. It is not known
how many of the 8,000 are independent or how many are affiliated with larger
firms. The viability of the fabricator has not been analyzed. To the
extent that those firms are solely dependent on vinyl chloride and polyvinyl
chloride input, the occurrence of a significant impact with a vinyl chloride
and polyvinyl chloride ban is likely.
In the fabrication of PVC, total direct and indirect related employment
is estimated to be 1.7 to 2.2 million jobs. This amounts to over 1 percent
of the 1972 labor force. (This figure includes not only persons employed
by fabricating companies, but also persons employed in utilization of the
fabricated products.
VI-57
-------
3. Chemical Intermediates
The principal chemical intermediate applications for the chlorocarbons
i
and fluorocarbons under evaluation (excluding vinyl chloride which has been
treated separately) are for the production of tetramethyl and tetraethyl lead,
silicones, vinylidene chloride, ethylene amines, and fluorocarbon resins.
Tetramethyl and tetraethyl lead are produced from methyl chloride and
ethyl chloride respectively. The principal producers and related capaci-
ties of tetraethyl and tetramethyl lead are summarized in Table VI-26. DuPont
and Ethyl Corporation are the major producers with over 80 percent of total
industry capacity, and PPG Industries and Nalco Chemical make up the
balance of production capacity. Only the production of tetraethyl lead is
reported. Therefore, a reliable estimate of capacity utilization is not
available because capacity estimates include production capacities for
both tetraiiiethyl and tetraethyl lead.
Historical growth has been 4 percent per year from 1967-1973. No future
growth is expected because of environmental pressures on leaded gasoline.
Some industry sources have estimated that production would decline 13 percent
per year through 1978, if catalytic exhaust converters are used on new auto-
mobiles .
The principal producers of silicones (produced from methyl chloride)
are Dow Corning, General Electric, Stauffer, and Union Carbide. Capacity
estimates and production figures are not available; therefore, at this
time it is difficult to accurately assess the value of production of
silicones in relation to these companies' total sales. Silicones are
VI-58
-------
Table VI-26. U.S. TETRAETHYL AND TETRAMETHYL LEAD MANUFACTURERS—1973
Ol
vo
Capacity (million Ib/yr
Percent of total U.S.
capacity
Production (million Ib/yr)
DuPont
340
41.0%
139.4
Ethyl Corp.
350
42.2%
149.0
Nalcb Chemical
40
4.8%
17.0
PPG
100
12.0%
42.4
TOTAL
830
100%
353.3
(TEL only
Sources: Chemical Marketing Reporter, U.S. international Trade Commission, and Arthur D. Little,
Inc., estimates.
-------
principally used in the production of specialty fluids, elastomers, and
resins. Production for resin and elastomer uses is reported, but produc-
tion for the principal end use, silicone fluids, is not reported. Reported
production for resins and elastomers was 18.4 and 37.0 million pounds in
1973, with production values of $35.3 and $82.1 million, respectively.
Vlnylidene chloride is produced from ethylene dichloride, and in
1971 Dow began production of vinylidene chloride from methyl chloroform.
The principal producers are Dow, PPG Industries, and Vulcan Materials.
Vinylidene chloride is principally used to produce polyvinylidene chloride
(PVDC) for use in coating and films (e.g., Saran Wrap), and as a minor
component in certain copolymer resins.
Ethylene amines are produced from ethylene dichloride. Estimated
production was 64 million pounds in 1973. Total capacity (based on mpno-
ethylenediamines) is 90 million pounds, and the principal producers, Dow
and Union Carbide having one third and two-thirds of total capacity, re-
spectively. Ethylene amines are used principally in fungicides and as
chelating agents. Recent growth was 7 percent per year; however, future
growth is expected to decline to 3 percent per year.
There are a number of fluorocarbon resins and elastomers, although it
is estimated that polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) is the major fluorocarbon
plastic produced. Manufacturers include DuPont (Teflon), Allied, Pennwalt,
and ICI. Production of PTFE was 14 million pounds in 1973.
VI-60
-------
4. Propellants
a. Aeroaol Cans - The aerosol can market should be viewed as part of the
larger metal can Industry. The rationale for this broader industry defi-
nition is the fact that the leading producers of aerosol containers and
related products are horizontally integrated and produce metal cans for
most of the wide variety of end-use segments in the overall industry.
The Metal Can Industry - The' metal can industry is the largest of all
packaging sectors in the United States. The value cf metal cans shipped
in 1973 was about $4.9 billion. (This compares to about $4.4 billion for
corrugated containers, the second largest packaging sector.) Table VI-27
shows a breakdown of U.S. metal can shipments by end-use. Here it can be
seen that there were about 83.4 billion units shipped in 1973, and that
the beverage market was the largest sector, accounting for about 50 per-
cent of this total.
Metal can industry shipments have increased from 1968 to 1973 at
about 5 percent per year. The beverage can market has been the fastest
growing sector in the industry with a 9.5 percent per year growth rate over
this period. Factors contributing to this growth are the beverage can's
superior convenience, filling and handling characteristics, compared to
the glass bottle. In contrast to the beverage can market, the food can
market has grown at only 1.5 percent per year from 1968 to 1973. Although
canning is still the major food processing method, the food can market is
expanding at a lower rate of growth due in part to the impact of newer and
faster growing frozen food processing techniques. The general packaging can
market consists of relatively mature end-uses such as antifreeze (heavily im-
pacted by plastic can penetration) paint and motor oil. This market has
VI-61
-------
Table VI-27. U.S. METAL CAN SHIPMENTS - 1973
Beverage cians
Beer
Soft drink
Total beverage cans
Food cans
Vegetables & juices
Fruits & juices
Meat & poultry
Fish & seafood
Evaporated & condensed milk
and other dairy products
Coffee
Baby food
Lard & shortening
Miscellaneous foods
Total food cans
General packaging cans
Aerosols
Motor oil
Paint
Other
Total general packaging cans
Pet food
Total metal can shipments
Billion units
24.0
17.7
41.7
10.5
5.8
1.8
1.7
1.5
0.8
0.7
0.4
7.8
31.0
3.0
0.8
0.8
2.3
6.9
- JUi
83.4
Percent of
total shipments
28.8
21.2
50.0
12.6
6.9
2.1
2.0
13.4
37.0
"
3.6
1.0
1.0
2.8
8.4
4.6
100 . 0
Sources: Can Manufacturers Institute, U.S. Department of Commerce -
Current Industrial Reports Series M34D, and Arthur D. Little,
Inc., estimates.
VI-62
-------
grown at less than 1 percent per year over the five year period ending in
1973. (One exception to the,mature growth characteristics of the general
packaging can market is the aerosol sector which is discussed in the fol-
lowing section.)
The Aerosol Container Market - The value of aerosol cans shipped in
1973 was about $190 million which is about 3.9 percent of the total value
of shipments in the overall metal can industry. As shown in Table VI-27
there were about 3.0 billion aerosol cans shipped in 1973, or about 3.6 per-
cent of total industry shipments. The difference .between the aerosol in-
dustry's percentage of total value of shipments compared to its percentage
of total units shipped reflects the fact that aerosol containers have a
higher average unit value than the average value of cans in the industry
as a whole. This is due to the fact that the aerosol container is a rela-
tively complex and expensive package, which is justified only by its great
/
convenience value in many diverse applications. Table VI-28 shows a break-
down of 1973 aerosol container shipments by end-use. The two largest
aerosol applications are deodorants/anti-perspirants and hair care products
with nearly 20 percent and 16 percent respectively of the total aerosol con-
tainer market. About 85 percent of the personal product applications
use a fluorocarbon type propellant. Thus, this sector, which accounts for
half of the total aerosol market in terms of units shipped, has the greatest
potential for economic impact under a ban of fluorocarbon use. About 15-20
percent of household products applications and about10 percent of the miscel-
laneous category also currently use fluorocarbon type propellants.
VI-63
-------
Table VI-28. U.S. AEROSOL CONTAINER SHIPMENTS - 1973
Personal products
Deodorants & anti-perspirants
Hair care products
Shaving lather
Colognes and perfumes
Medic inals & Pharmaceuticals
Other
Total personal products
Household products
Cleaners
Room deodorants & disinfectants
Laundry/starch products
Waxes & polishes
Other
Total household products
Miscellaneous
Coatings and finishes
Insect sprays
Industrial products
Foods
Automotive products
Other
Total miscellaneous
Total aerosol container
shipments
Million units
580
470
170
140
70
70
1,500
210
170
160
100
40
680
270
140
120
110
90
50
780
2,960
Percent of total
shipments
19.6
15.9
5.7
4.7
2.4
2.4
50.7
7.1
5.7
5.4
3.4
1.4
23.0
9.1
4.7
4.1
3.7
3.0
1.7
26.3
100
Source: Chemical Specialties Manufacturers Association, Modern
Packaging and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
VI-64
-------
The aerosol container market has been the second fastest growing
market in the overall metal can industry (next to the beverage can market)
with a 6.5 percent growth rate from 1968 to 1973. , The miscellaneous products
category has grown the fastest since 1968, at about 8.5 percent per year.
Growth in this category has been led by industrial and automotive applica-
tions with more than 30 percent and 11 percent per year growth rates respec-
tively. The large personal products, sector has grown at nearly 5 percent
per year over this time frame. Growth in this sector has been led by deo-
dorant/anti-perspirant applications (12 percent per year) and colognes/per-
fumes (5 percent per year). These growth sectors have been offset to some
extent by the more mature hair care products sector which has actually
declined by nearly 1 percent per year over this time period. Finally, the
household products category appears to be another mature sector with slightly
less than 2 percent per year growth from 1968 to 1973.
' , V 1 ' ' •
Industry Structure - The metal can industry is made up of about 100
companies that operate approximately 350 plants. Three-quarters of total
can shipments are supplied by merchant can suppliers and about one-quarter
by companies that produce cans for.their own use. The can industry is one
of the most concentrated of all packaging industries. The two leading mer-
chant can companies, American Can and Continental Can, accounted for roughly
two-thirds of all merchant can sales in 1973. National Can and Crown Cork
and Seal, the third and fourth leading merchant can companies, accounted
for an additional 15 percent of merchant can sales. Thus, four companies
accounted for about 80 percent of total merchant can sales in 1973. The
leading merchant can companies are typically fully horizontally integrated
VI-65
-------
in the metal can industry and produce metal cans for most of the end-use
sectors mentioned previously, including aerosols. Further, many of these
companies extend beyond the can industry itself and are involved in other
packaging and nonrelated activities such as glass container manufacture,
converted paper and plastic products production, and the manufacture of
various consumer products. ^an manufacture.for.fluorocarbon^related aerosols
is less than 10 percent of the sales of these leading merchant can companies.
In addition to the major can companies, however, several smaller aerosol
can manufacturers exist in the merchant can market. Although the sales of
these smaller companies represent only a small share of the total aerosol
can market, these companies do depend to a much greater degree on aerosol
can manufacture than do the leading can manufacturers. Examples of this
type of company are Peerless Tube Company and Apache Container Corporation.
Further work will be required in order to identify and assess regulatory
effects on these smaller companies whose aerosol container sales represent
a substantial portion of total company sales.
In addition to the merchant can sector, at least forty companies manu-
facture cans for their own use. Coors, Schlitz and Anheuser Busch in the
beer industry and Campbell Soup, Carnation, Borden and H.J. Heinz in the food
industry are examples of companies that are backward integrated to can manu-
facture. Also, R.J. Reynolds and Kaiser Aluminum are forward integrated to
can manufacture. Sherwin Williams is the only known aerosol can manufac-
turer that produces cans for its own use.
VI-66
-------
Related Container Industries - About 94 percent of the aerosol product
market is packaged in metal cans. Cans are preferred primarily for their high
barrier and safety characteristics. Glass and plastic containers account for
about 5 percent and 1 percent of the aerosol market respectively. Total glass
container shipments in 1973 were about 39.5 billion units with a value of
$2.3 billion. Total plastic bottle shipments were about 7.4 billion units in
1973 with a value of $514 million. Thus, the glass and plastic aerosol market
segment makes up a very small part of these related container industries.
VI-67
-------
P. Aerosol Fillers and Marketers
In addition to the manufacture of aerosol-related hardware, i.e.
caps, valves and canisters, a major industry exists around the filling
process for aerosol products. In 1973 the estimated sales volume of
firms engaged in aerosol filling was on the order of $2.2 billion at the manu-
facturers' level. This estimate includes sales of the industry's two
major segments, captive fillers which are generally subsidiaries or divisions
of companies whose primary business is the marketing of aerosols and other
products, and contract fillers whose prime business is filling aerosol
products to the specifications of aerosol marketers. Industry sources
estimate that contract fillers account for approximately 60 percent of
the total units filled. For 1973, based on industry estimates of 2.9
billion units filled, contract fillers filled approximately 1.74 bijLlion
units while captive producers.processed very nearly 1.16 billion
units.
Table VI-29 summarizes the estimated sales and employment in the
aerosol industry. Our employment estimates include only those employees
directly involved in the filling of aerosol products and their directly
related support people, i.e. quality control, warehousing, distribution,
and purchasing. We estimate directly related support personnel to approximate
10 percent of the total direct manufacturing employees. We have not in-
cluded in our estimates, employment for those jobs which are indirectly
related to aerosol filling. These Include sales, marketing, administra-
tive, and other corporate overhead employees and, if included in employ-
ment estimates, could approximately double the figure shown in Table VI-29
to nearly 30,000 employees.
VI-68
-------
TableVI-29. 1974 AEROSOL FILLING INDUSTRY SALIENT STATISTICS
Filler type
Contract
Captive
Totals
Units filled
(millions)
1,740
1,160
2,900
a
Sales
(millions)
250
2,000
2,250
b
Employees
8,500
6,000
14,500
Sale's at manufacturer's level
Employment directly related to aerosol filling.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on communications with
the industry.
VI-69
-------
The exact number of directly and indirectly related employees is
extremely difficult to estimate since it varies widely with the efficiency
of the filler, the nature of the business, i.e. strictly a filler or a
combination marketer/filler and the geographical scope of operations.
Contract fillers, with their operations generally limited relative to
marketer/fillers, typically have fewer support people, especially in
marketing, sales, and corporate administrative positions, since the nature
of the business does not allow or require their existence. The marketer/
fillers, however, whose operations frequently involve widespread distribu-
tion of aerosol and other products, typically employ marketing and adminis-
trative personnel, only part of whose responsibility involves aerosol
products, but whose number equals or exceeds the number directly involved
in aerosol filling.
An important distinction to note is the difference in the role of the
contract filler when compared to that of the marketer with a captive filling
operation. The contract filler provides aerosol filling capabilities for
those marketers who do not have a product line which justifies investment
in captive aerosol filling capacity. With relatively few exceptions, con-
tract fillers are small in size, large in number and rather regionally
oriented in the scale of their operations. FigureVI-3 shows graphically
the fact that the number of firms with filling capacities less than 10
million units per year accounts for nearly 50 percent of the total number
of firms, but that their total aggregate capacity is only 6 percent of
total industry capacity. Conversely, the firms with filling capacities in
excess of 200 million units per year account for only 3 percent of the total
number of firms, but over 30 percent of the industry filling capacity.
VI-70
-------
M
a
H
8
s
W
100
80
60 _
40 -
20
ANNUAL CAPACITY
A = more than 200 million units
B = less than 10 million units
20
40
60
80
100
CUMULATIVE PERCENT OF TOTAL
NUMBER OF FIRMS
Figure VI-3. Aerosol Filling Industry Capacity as a Function of
Number of Fillers
Sources: Aerosol Handbook and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
VI-71
-------
Many of the contract fillers, especially the smaller more regionally oriented
firms, rely on one or two major accounts for the bulk of their business, and
hence, are vulnerable to the loss of an account going to captive production—
or could be vulnerable to costly process changeovers to alternate propel-
lants or delivery systems if a fluorocarbon propellant ban affected the
products of their major customer. The larger contract filling firms such
as Aerosol Techniques, Inc., Peterson/Puritan, (subsidiary of CPC Inter-
national), and Barr-Stalfort have much more widely diversified operations
from both a geographic and product-mix standpoint, and would not be as
vulnerable to limitations on fluorocarbon use or changes in their customer
base.
Many aerosol marketers have captive filling operations as the result
of their aerosol business growing to a point where captive filling is eco-
nomically justified. Captive filling for the marketer represents a backward
integration step from the prime business of producing and marketing products
which utilize aerosol packaging for consumer appeal and/or effective product
use. While it is difficult to generalize, potential economic dislocation
in terms of lost sales and unemployment from a potential fluorocarbon ban
should affect the marketers of aerosol products with captive filling opera-
tions less than the contract fillers. Since the marketers' prime concern
is the sale of personal care, household, or other products, a ban on fluoro-
carbon propellants would most likely mean a switch toward an acceptable
propellant or package, rather than leaving the business entirely. Thus, one
would expect a shift to alternative products or propellants in the event
of a fluorocarbon propellant ban. The dislocation in terms of employment
VI-72
-------
and industry segment sales would be determined by the extent to which
alternate products would be accepted by the consumer.
The scope of this study did not allow for a detailed analysis of the
aerosol filling industry. Relatively little published information exists
regarding its operations and characteristics. A key area for further con-
sideration is the actual operating performance and flexibility of representa-
tive fillers, as these factors would be influenced by a possible fluorocarbon
propellant ban. Many of both the fillers and marketers contacted have begun
initial development of alternate propellant systems or products and, at this
point, do not anticipate debilitating changeover costs in adapting current
filling capacity to new propellants if a fluorocarbon ban is enacted. How-
ever, this is an extreme generalization which should be clarified through
further effort aimed at identifying and quantifying specific impacts on a
representative sample of fillers, both contract and captive. Also, since
certain fluorocarbon aerosol products do not presently have acceptable al-
ternatives, certain firms may be more adversely impacted depending on the
company's product mix.
c. Valves
The estimated value of valves used in aerosol containers produced in
the United States was approximately $60 million in 1973. The major producer
of valves is Precision Valve Corporation with an estimated 50 percent of the
total market., There are arv, additional nine valve producers that supply the
aerosol industry, .based on a recent survey of the Chemical Specialties Manu-
facturers Association. Employment among the valve producers is an estimated
2,000, based on industry, contacts.
VI-73
-------
5. Air Conditioning and Refrigeration
The air conditioning (A/C) and refrigeration industry is a major consumer
of fluorocarbons for use as refrigerants in air conditioning and refrigera-
tion systems. The air'conditioning and refrigeration industry is important
both in the residential sector as well as in the industrial and commercial
sectors of the U.S. economy for atmospheric temperature controls and for
maintaining the quality of many products ranging from food to drugs. Refri-
geration is important in such industrial sectors as food distribution, chemi-
cals and Pharmaceuticals, Computer systems, electronics, aerospace and optics.
The fluorbcarbon refrigerants play an important role in the air conditioning
and refrigeration industry. The industry has been built around the use of
fluorocarbon refrigerants because of their desirable low toxicity and low
flammability combined with excellent heat transfer properties, there are
alternate refrigerant materials available, however, they are used to an
extremely limited degree because they do not equal the physical properties
of fluorocarbons. As a result, the air conditioning and refrigeration
industry is highly dependent on fluorocarbon refrigerants, and limitations
on the use of fluorocarbon refrigeraits would significantly alter the present
air conditioning and refrigeration systems. In order to develop new equip-
ment utilizing' alternative refrigerants, the industry would require a number
of years'to redesign'equipment, build prototypes, test and retool production
facilities, and achieve a high level of production capability. In addition,
the impact on the existing equipment would be severe. Alternative refrigerants
cannot be used interchangeably, because existing equipment has been speci-
fically designed to utilize fluorocarbon refrigerants.
VI-74
-------
The related level of business activity in the refrigeration industry
is summarized in Table VI-30. Industry employment and payroll data are
included. The data presented include heating equipment as well as air
conditioning and refrigeration equipment, and it is estimated that heating
equipment accounts for approximately 20. percent of the total value of shipments.
These employment estimates only consider direct employment related to the
manufacture of refrigeration equipment and components for refrigeration
*
equipment such as heat transfer equipment, compressors, and condensers.
i
Indirect employment, including refrigeration equipment contractors, sales
and service personnel and others, and direct employment, totaled an estimated
525,000 employees in 1972. The indirect employment impact has been
determined through use of an employment multiplier analysis based on the
Input/Output Structure of the U.S. Economy, 1967, U.S. Department of
Commerce. This analysis has been feasible because of the well-defined
nature of the refrigeration industry in the U.S. Census of Manufacturers
1972.
The major air conditioning/refrigeration equipment manufacturers are
summarized in Table VI-31. The majority of these companies are highly
dependent on the air conditioning/refrigeration industry, although major
companies, including the automotive companies and large appliance manufacturers,
such as General Electric and Westinghouse, are less dependent on the air
conditioning/refrigeration industry. The table summarizes the. companies'
total sales, their relative: profitability, and their dependence on the air
conditioning and refrigeration business as a function of their total sales.
VI-75
-------
TableVI-30. U.S. REFRIGERATION INDUSTRY - 1972
<
H-
I
a
Refrigeration and heating
Equipment (SIC 3585)
Heat transfer equipment
Unitary air conditioners
Commercial refrigeration
Compressors
Condensers
Room A/C and dehumidif iers
Other refrigeration and
A/C equipment
Other
Household refrigerators and
Freezers (SIC 3632)
Household refrigerators
Home and farm freezers
Other
Value of
shipments
($million)
7033.1
1540.7
1171.2
477.0
1064.4
142.6
650.8
551.9
1434.5
1610.5
1192.0
213.1
295. 4
Total employees
Number
(thousand)
149. 9
32.1
Payroll
($million)
1433.9
287.3
Production workers
Number
(thousand)
111.9
27.0
Payroll
($million)
973.8
220.9
a Data includes heating equipment which represents approximately 20 percent of total value cf
shipments in SIC 3585.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Census of Manufacturers, 1972.
-------
Table VI-31. AIR CONDITIONlNG/REFRIQERATIpN
EQUIPMENT' MANUFACTURERS - 1973
• '* "
Company
Borg Warner (1fork)
Carrier Corporation
Chrysler
(FY ending 10/31/73)
Copeland
(FY ending 9/30/73)
Fedders
(FY ending 8/31/73)
Ford : '
General Electric
General Motors
McGraw-Edison
Tecumseh Products
Trane Company
Wei 1-McC lain
Westinghouse
Whirlpool
White Consolidated
Addison Products Co.
Dunham-Bush , Inc .
(Subs, of The Signal
Companies)
Lennox Industries Inc
Hussman Refrigerator
(Subs, of Pet Inc.)
Tota.l
1973 sales
($million):
1,546.8
876.7
186. 5 ;
338.4
23,015:l;
,11,573.5. .
35,798.3
821.0
524 .4 :
317.4
150.7
5,702.3
1,637.0
825.6
N/A
$75 - 100
N/A
150
Net income
percent of
sales
4.6%.
4.6
• : . .,
5.3 ;
3.1
:3.9
- -. ::5.1 ,-.
6.7
. 1 .: .
4.0
5.6
5.0
7.5
2.8
5.3
4.2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
A/C and ••.••-
refrigeration
as percent of
total sales
',"'••
19%a
85
t .
<2
95+
69
.;••• ?b
. .; •.- N/A
N/A
'41C
70 '
95+
37d
16C
38
N/A
-100
80-90
<10
50
Major
activity
A/C
A/C
A/C
Parts
A/C, R
A/C, R
' A/C , R .
A/C, R
A/C
Parts
A/C
A/C
A/C, R
A/C
A/C, R
A/C, R
A/C, R
A/C
R
Includes building products
Includes tractors, other appliances and electronic items
CIncludes all U.S. consumer goods
Includes heating equipment
Sources: Corporate annual reports, and Arthur D. Little, Inc.
VI-77
-------
The industry experienced rapid growth during the 1960's as the air
conditioning and refrigeration industry developed» however, the air condi-
tioning and refrigeration industry has been experiencing lower growth in
recent years. Because of lower growth1? Increased competition, and the
economic downturn in 1974, the profitability for a number of companies in
the air conditioning and refrigeration business has deteriorated. For
example, Borg Warner's York subsidiary experienced a loss in 1974. In
addition, Carrier Corporation's level of profitability in the A/C and re-
frigeration business also deteriorated, and its pretax margin as a percent
of sales dropped from 8.4 percent in 1973 to 0.9 percent in 1974. These
examples point out the profitability problems in the industry and suggest
potential limited financial capability in view of the massive effort that
would be necessary for the Industry to convert their air conditioning and
refrigeration products to alternative refrigerants.
VI-78
-------
6. Foam Blowing Agents
Fluorocarbons are used extensively as blowing agents in the manu-
facture of both rigid and flexible polyurethane and polystyrene foams.
Much smaller amounts are used for polyolefin foams.
The most commonly used fluorocarbon is F-ll which accounts for ap-
proximately 80 percent of all fluorocarbon vised for this application.
Approximately 25 percent of the F-ll produced is used as a foam blowing
agent. A summary of fluorocarbon usage in each of the foam categories
was presented in Table IV-9.
Principal raw materials used in the production of polyurethane
foam are polyether and polyester polyols. In 1973, 1;16 billion pounds
of polyether and polyester polyols were used in the production of poly-
urethane foam, and sales of these raw materials totaled $190 million. ,
The major producers of polyether polyols are BASF Wyandotte Corpora-
tion, Dow Chemical, Jefferson Chemical Company (owned by Texaco), Olin
Corporation and Union Carbide Corporation. These five account for over
80 percent of production. The balance is accounted for by a large
number of smaller producers. Most producers of- polyether polyols also
produce polyester polyols which represent a small portion of total
polyol production. • < • >•
Isocyanates are the other key raw materials along with the blowing
agent used in the production of polyurethane foams. It is estimated that
over 75 percent of the total production of isocyanate in 1973 (871 million
pounds) was used in production of foams, including that exported. Total
isocyanate merchant sales in 1973 were $221 million or about 83 percent of
total U.S. production. There are 10 producers of isocyanates; the two largest-
VI-79
-------
Mobay and Upjohn — have an estimated 50 percent of total industry capacity
for the two major commercial isocyanates.
There were about 1.4 billion pounds of flexible and rigid polyurethane
foam produced in 1974. Rigid foam production was approximately 400 million
pounds and flexible polyurethane foam production was over 1 billion
pounds. The total value of urethane foam products was approximately $1
billion in 1973.
Major producers of flexible polyurethane foam are E.R. Carpenter,
Diamond Shamrock, Firestone, General Motors, General Tire and Rubber Com-
pany, Reeves Brothers, Goodyear, Sheller-Globe, Tenneco and Textron.
These 10 companies account for 70 percent of total flexible polyurethane
capacity; the balance is accounted for by 30 to 40 smaller producers.
There are over 100 companies which are manufacturers of rigid polyurethane
foam. The end-use pattern for rigid and flexible polyurethane foam is
given in Table VI-32.
The number of companies producing and distributing the polyurethane
foam end products is extremely large and diverse. Also, there is a large
amount of overlap between foam manufacturers and end product manufacturers.
Since there are many small producers of rigid and flexible polyurethane
foam and foam products, the profitability and financial capability of
smaller producers may limit their ability to convert to alternative blowing
agents. The potential impact on this industry sector requires further analy-
sis.
Approximately 32,000 people are employed in foam product manufacture.
This estimate is based on employment figures for the industry which are
VI-80
-------
Table VI-32. U.S. CONSUMPTION OF POLYURETHANE FOAM - 1973
Category
Building Insulation
Appliances
Transportation
Furniture
Industrial insulation
Carpet underlay
Marine f lotation
Bedding
Textile laminates, packaging
Other
.Total
Flexible
(percent of
total use)
-
-
33
38
-
8
-
10
4
7
100%
Rigid
(percent of
total use)
38
20
14
15
5
-
3
-
-
5
100%
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on published data.
VI-81
-------
published in the Census of Manufacturers. 1972 and updated to 1973 assuming
a constant output per employee. Industry sources estimate that 15,000
people are employed in foamed plastic manufacturing and another 10,000 in
raw material manufacturing for a total of 57,000 people involved in
activities related to the use of fluorocarbon blowing agents.
7. Solvents '
The chlorocarbons and the fluorocarbons have important solvent
applications. The major categories for the use of solvents are in metal
cleaning and textile cleaning and processing. Metal cleaning involves
a wide range of products including transportation equipment, electrical
machinery, primary metal products and jewelry. There are two basic
methods of cleaning metal — cold cleaning and vapor degreasing. Vapor
degreasing involves placing the part to be cleaned in the vapors of a
boiling solvent. Trichloroethylene is particularly suitable to this
method and is employed in the majority of vapor degreasing operations.
However, because of air pollution considerations, methyl chloroform
is being utilized to an increasing extent in addition to perchloroethylene.
Perchloroethylene is principally used for dry cleaning, and processing and
finishing textiles. Besides its cleaning capability perchloroethylene has
the additional properties of being nonflammable and easily recoverable.
To a limited extent F-113 and ethylene dichloride are also employed
as dry cleaning agents.
Chloroform and trichloroethylene find small applications as extrac-
tion solvents. Trichloroethylene is used in decaffeinating coffee, and
chloroform is an extraction solvent for vitamins, penicillin, antibiotics
and flavors. Other chlorocarbons are widely used in laboratory-scale
solvent and extraction applications.
According to industry estimates, total employment in plants utilizing
fluorocarbon solvents is 160,000.
VI-82
-------
VII. INITIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
A. INTRODUCTION
The preceding chapters of this report have defined the current uses
of fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons, estimated their atmospheric emissions,
and described the primary U.S. producing and consuming industry sectors.
The transition schedules for each of the major production and consumption
sectors in the face of restrictions in the use of fluorocarbons and chloro-
cargons have also been developed. This chapter identifies and describes
the economic dislocations likely to be experienced in the United States
if regulations are promulgated to reduce U.S. halocarbon emissions.
A set of potential regulatory strategies are identified, followed by
a summary of the key information from the previous chapters. The approxi-
mate emission reduction resulting from each regulatory option is also
shown. The final section of this chapter describes in a qualitative way
the effects on each of the industry sectors which would result from
implementing each of the 18 regulatory alternatives.
The purpose of this initial economic Impact assessment is to identify
where impacts are likely to occur under the various alternatives and to
estimate the relative magnitude of the impacts. This report does not
... - * --\ • • , ~ "• .
attempt to project price increases or job losses, for example, as would
be done as part of a more extensive examination of potential economic
impacts on particular sectors.
VII-1
-------
There are, however, some general comments which can be made about
the economic effects of restricting the use of the fluorocarbons and
chlorocarbons. Because the current uses of the chemicals exist in price-
and performance-competitive environments, one can generally say that for
a given product performance, the current use of the chemical is the least
costly product for satisfying the total need as perceived by the consumer.
Restrictions in their use would require present consumers to shift to
their next best alternatives which would either be more expensive or per-
form less satisfactorily. The alternative may satisfy the primary needs
of the user but may not maximize total satisfaction. In some cases, a
consumer shift to less satisfactory products may also be a shift to less
expensive products. But generally one can say that a restriction in the
use of a high volume chemical will result in substitution by higher priced
products and some reduction in consumption. Even without a reduction in
consumption, total consumer utility may decline.
The price effects of restrictions on the use of fluorocarbons and
chlorocarbons are confused because the substitute products would in many
instances be less expensive, though they would not provide the same product
performance. The non-aerosol antiperspirant and hair spray products are
generally less expensive, as are many of the alternative solvents and
blowing agents. Lower solvent or blowing agent costs may be out-
weighed by higher equipment or operating costs.
The price Increases resulting from restrictions on the chemical use
or production would be caused first by having to use more expensive sub-
stitute products to achieve the same results, and secondly by increased
prices of the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons themselves as a result of
lower production levels.
VII-2
-------
There is the potential for job losses as a result of restrictions
in a chemical's use. However, simply counting jobs may not adequately
reflect disruptions resulting from the restrictions because the additional
production of alternate products minimizes the employment impact. A ban
in fluorocarbon production could result in an increase in the total number
of jobs associated with producing the substitute products and performing
the function now performed by the fluorocarbons. The next best product
including chemical production, refrigeration applications, propellant
applications, etc. may be less efficient in labor utilization than the
present one and may require more labor hours to achieve the results now
achieved using the fluorocarbons. While the total change in jobs may not
be a good measure of economic impact, identifying the jobs lost and those
gained could be a useful indicator of impact. Since sufficient analysis
has not been conducted to quantify the jobs impact, this report has avoided
listing jobs to be "impacted." Such impacts could range from job losses
to simply learning to work with new products or chemicals. Until such
impacts can be better defined, their discussion does not give great in-
sight into the effects of the regulatory strategies.
The secondary and tertiary impacts of both price increases and job
losses/gains is an important and often neglected dimension of economic
impact. The one job lost/gained at a chemical manufacturer could result
in two jobs lost or gained through multiplier effects. Because this
report is directed at identifying primary impact areas, no attempt has
been made to estimate these secondary impacts, though they should be
estimated as part of a more complete economic impact analysis.
VII-3
-------
This report concerns the economic impacts or costs of undertaking
various steps to reduce fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon emissions. The
economic benefits of such reductions are not considered. In order to
justify or mandate the economic disruptions which would result from
restrictions in fluorocarbon or chlorocarbon use, the societal benefits
flowing from these restrictions should be well understood. Conducting
this preliminary economic impact assessment does not imply that substan-
tial benefits would result from restrictions in the chemical usage. The
question of whether the ozone layer is threatened has not been examined
nor has the question of what would be the economic penalties (costs) of
different reductions in the ozone layer.
While considering the economic impacts of the different regulatory
strategies, one should bear in mind that a statement that a current use
of fluorocarbons or chlorocarbons can be switched to a substitute product
is not a statement that it should be switched without strong justification.
Even though refrigeration systems, for example, would continue to be made
and jobs may not be lost under a conversion to another refrigeration
system, the society pays real and significant penalties for an imposed
conversion. Simply because of higher refrigeration and air conditioning
prices, fewer refrigeration and air conditioning products will be bought
and less money will probably be available for purchasing other products.
Thus, it is imperative that potential economic impacts be broadly con-
ceived to include productivity effects, inflation effects, balance of
payment effects, environmental effects, and not simply job losses or plant
closings. And, in addition, the corresponding benefits of the proposed
VII-4
-------
regulations which have not been considered in this report must be well
understood before regulations are promulgated which would result in sub-
stantial economic disruption.
This economic impact assessment considers only the effects on the
U.S. economy of restrictions on U.S. fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon emis-
sions. If the ozone layer is threatened by these emissions, it is a
worldwide problem and one which restrictions on U.S. emissions alone
cannot solve. United States fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon atmospheric
emissions now account for one-half of world emissions and the U.S.
share will diminish in the future. If substantial reductions in world-
wide emissions are necessary, other fluorocarbon- and chlorocarbon-using
countries must also act to reduce atmospheric emissions of these compounds.
B. REGULATORY OPTIONS
1. Introduction
Through discussions with the EPA, nine regulatory options have been
defined which are designed to reduce fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon emis-
sions to the atmosphere by four different amounts on three different time
schedules. These potential regulatory strategies have no official standing.
They are only intended to identify a range of alternatives and to enable
a more specific discussion of potential disruptions in the U.S. economy
resulting from the options. Other regulatory actions are possible and
will certainly be considered if a decision is made to reduce emissions.
2. Chemicals Considered
The following regulatory options assume that a limited number of
critical uses exist which result in relatively small losses to the atmosphere
and which would not be banned even if all other fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon
VII-5
-------
uses were banned. Such critical uses, for which there are no adequate
substitutes, could include products used in inhalation therapy or
products used for fire control in aircraft. Since current theory indicates
that a low level of atmospheric emissions may be acceptable, it is
unreasonable to assume that the banning of such critical uses is a viable
regulatory option. People would be exposed to high immediate health
risks without any compensating reduction in damage to the ozone layer.
In describing the regulatory options and the resulting economic dis-
locations, it is specifically assumed that the critical uses will not be
affected (except by higher product prices) by any of the options.
The timing of the various alternatives assumes that at some point in
the next one to two years a decision will be made to execute a strategy for
reducing emissions. The options discussed here and the resulting
scenarios begin at the point the decision is made. If there are exten-
sive delays before a decision is made, the affected industry sectors
will have more time to prepare their response and the resulting economic
disruptions could be lessened to some extent.
The current usage of 15 fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons
has been discussed in this report. In order to make a general
discussion of economic impacts manageable, the chemicals considered have
been limited to two groups with relatively long atmospheric life times and
relatively high production levels:
VII-6
-------
Chemical Group 1 (atmosphericlifetime greater than ten years)
Fluorocarbon 11
Fluorocarbon 12
Carbon tetrachloride
Chemical Group 2 (atmospheric lifetime of one to ten years)
Fluorocarbon 22
Methyl chloroform
These two chemical groups are considered in two combinations:
Chemical Use or Production Restriction Alternatives
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restrictions on Chemical Group 1
No Restrictions on Chemical Group 2
Restricted Chemical Set B
Restrictions on Chemical Group 1
Restrictions on Chemical Group 2
3. Definition of Regulatory Options
Nine regulatory approaches have been defined ranging from a ban of
all uses of the chemicals after six months to a ban of propellant uses
after six years. Each of the nine approaches is applied to Restricted
Chemical Sets A and B for a total of 18 regulatory options.
VII-7
-------
The following nine regulatory approaches have been considered:
1. Ban All But Replacement Uses of Controlled Chemicals After
Six Months ... . . .
All direct uses of the controlled chemical and all uses in new
products (Restriction Set A or Restriction Set B) would be banned
six months after the issuance of the order (except limited critical
uses). No new aerosols or air conditioners could be made with the
chemicals, but the recharging of existing air conditioners and
refrigeration equipment would be allowed.
2. Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellent Uses
After Six Months
Design specifications would be promulgated requiring the upgrading
of refrigeration/air conditioning, and solvent and blowing agent
equipment and refrigeration/air conditioning service techniques in
order to increase recovery of emissions now lost to the atmosphere.
Use in propellant applications would be banned at the end of six
months. •
3. Do Not Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Prop.ellant Uses
After Six Months
No new controls would be placed on non-propellant uses of the
chemicals, but the use of them as propellents would be banned at
the end of six months.
VII-8
-------
4. Institute Government Control of Total Chemical Production
After Six Months
The Federal Government would take some action to limit total chemi-
cal production by the end of six months and let the market mechanisms
allocate its uses. The first such alternatives would be to specify
a total U.S. production and tax away the excess profits made when
the product prices are bid up. Another alternative would be to
impose a tax, such as $1.00 a pound, on the chemicals in order to
discourage their use as propellants and introduce an economic incen-
tive for increased recovery of emissions in other applications. An
auction system for buying the right to produce a specified amount of the
chemical is another mechanism which more precisely controls how much will
actually be produced and allows the market itself to establish a "tax"
in the form of the payments for production rights. A 50 percent re-
duction in production has been assumed for each of the five chemicals.
5. Ban All But Replacement Uses of Controlled Chemicals After
Three Years
This is the same as Option 1 except that the ban goes into effect at
the end of three years.
6. Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant Uses
After Three Years
The regulatory action is the same as Option 2 except that the
restrictions go into effect at the end of three years.
7. Do Not Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant
Uses After Three Years
The only restrictions would be a ban of propellant applications three
years after the regulation is issued.
VII-9
-------
8. Institute Government Control of Total Chemical Production
After Three Years
One of the mechanisms for controlling total U.S. chemical production
would be put into effect at the end of three years.
9. Do Not Regulate Non-Propellant Applications and Ban Propellant
Uses After Six Years
The only controls under this option would be a ban on propellent
applications six years after promulgation of the order. ""
' '* •
Summary of Regulatory Options
Immediate Restrictions
1. Ban All But Replacement Uses of Controlled Chemicals After Six Months
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restricted Chemical Set B
2. Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant Uses
After Six Months
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restricted Chemical Set B
3. Do Not Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant Uses
After Six Months
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restricted Chemical Set B /•' •
4. Institute Government Control of Total Chemical Production After
Six Months
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restricted Chemical Set B
VII-10
-------
Restrictions After Three Years '•
5. Ban All But Replacement Uses of Controlled Chemicals After
Three Years
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restricted Chemical Set B
6. Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant Uses
After Three Years
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restricted Chemical Set B
7. Do Not Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant
Uses After Three Years
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restricted Chemical Set B
8. Institute Government Control of,Total Chemical Production
After Three Years
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restricted Chemical Set B
Restriction After Six Yearg
9. Do Not Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant Uses
After Six Years
Restricted Chemical Set A
Restricted Chemical Set B
VII-11
-------
C. REVIEW OF PRODUCTION AND EMISSION STATISTICS
The assessment of potential economic impact resulting from various
regulatory options is based upon the information reported earlier in the
report on the uses of the chemicals, potential substitutes, conversion
timetables, and current emission rates. Information Concerning the five
chemicals considered in the impact analysis have been summarized in
Tables VII-1 through VII-6.
Table VII-1 lists the 1973 U.S. production and major use categories
for the five potentially controlled chemicals. Table VII-2 lists the
estimated losses to the atmosphere of each of the chemicals from its major
use categories. Table VII-3 disaggregates the use categories more finely
than does Table VII-1.
Group I chemicals are principally used as intermediate chemicals,
propellants, and refrigerants. Their intermediate chemical use is prin-
cipally for the production of F-ll and F-12 from carbon tetrachloride.
Any limitations on F-ll and F-12 would directly impact carbon tetrachloride
production and vice-versa.
F-ll and F-12 are used equally as propellants. For refrigerant
applications, F-12 is the predominant Group I chemical, while for use as a
blowing agent, F-ll is the predominant Group I chemical.
Group II chemicals are used as solvents (principally methyl chloro-
form) and refrigerants. F-22 is primarily used as a refrigerant with
additional markets as a chemical intermediate (fluorocarbon resins).
Methyl chloroform also has applications as a chemical intermediate (i.e.,
vinylidene chloride), and as a vapor pressure depressant in aerosols.
VII-12
-------
Table VII-1. ESTIMATED ANNUAL U.S. USES OF POTENTIALLY CONTROLLED CHEMICALS - 1973
(millions of pounds)
H
U»
Chemical
Chemical group 1
F-ll
F-12
Carbon tetra-
chloride
Subtotal
Chemical Group 2
F-22
Methyl
chloroform
Subtotal
TOTAL
Produc-
tion
334
489
1.047
1,870
136
548
684
2,554 .
Propel-
lant
237
249
— - —
486
small
_
small
486
Refrigerant
18
168
_I_ -
186
90
_
90
276
Solvent
small
•
small
-
-
384
384
384
Blowing
agent
53
10
—
63
•
-
_
-
. 63
Intermediate
chemical
-
- '
995
995
35
44
79
1074
Other a
3
79
I2.
134
11
120
131
265
a. Includes exports.
Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission; Chemical Marketing Reporter; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates
based on industry contacts.
-------
Table VII-2. ESTIMATED U.S. ATMOSPHERIC EMISSIONS FROM POTENTIALLY CONTROLLED CHEMICALS - 1973
(millions of pounds)
Chemical
Chemical Group I
F-ll
F-12
Carbon tetrachloride
Subtotal
Chemical Group II
F-22
Methyl chloroform
Subtotal
Total
Production
334
489
1,047
1,870
136
548
684
2,554
Production,
transport
& storage
losses
3.3
4.9
15.7
23.9
1.4
5.5
6.9
30.8
^ Estimate
Propellant
237
249
486
small
small
486
d annual ends
Refrigerant
11
131
142
59.5
59.5
202
sions fr
Solvent
small
21
21
427
427
448
om use and
Blowing
agent
29
7.5
36
-
36
disposal
Use as
in termed.
.chemical
9.9
9.9
small
small
small
9.9
Total
280
392
46
718
62
433
495
1,213
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
Table VII-3. DEFINITION OF USES OF POTENTIALLY CONTROLLED CHEMICALS - 1973
(millions of pounds)
I
M
in
Chemical consuming
sectors
Propellants
Hairspray
Antl-perspirant
Other
Refrigeration
Appliances
Mobile air-conditioning
Room and unitary air-
conditioners
Commercial chillers
Other
Solvent
Metal cleaning and degreasing
Electronics, aerospace etc.
Other
Bloving Agent
(breakout not available)
Flexible polyurethane
Rigid polyurethane
Other
Intermediate
F-ll
F-12
Vinylidene chloride
• Fluor ocarbon resins (i.e.PTFF]
Other (including exports)
Total
Chemical Group I
F-ll
103
86
48
-
-
-
18
-
-
-
Small
)
r
_
_
-
-
26
334
F-12
72
114
63
9
72
-•
79
8
-
-
—
}•
10
_
_ -
-
-
62
489
Carbon
tetrachloride
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Small -
_
—
628
367
•
-
52
1047
Chemical Group II
F-22
-
-
Small
-
Small
37
52
-
i-
-
-
_
••
-
-
-
35
12
136
Methyl
chloroform
-
-
-
-
-
- •
-
-
384
-
.-
• ^
—
-
-
44
—
120
548
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission; Chemical Marketing Reporter; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates
based on industry contacts.
-------
Table VII-4 summarizes the dependence of various end use categories
on the potentially controlled chemicals. The table shows those end use
sectors which are most dependent on the Group 1 and II chemicals and, by
inference, those sectors which would, be more.severely impacted by limita-
tions on Group I and II chemicals. For example, under blowing agents,
81 percent of rigid polyurethane foam produced is dependent on Group I
chemicals, while flexible polyurethane is only 49 percent dependent on
Group I chemicals. This suggests that rigid polyurethane would be more
severely impacted by limitations on Group I chemicals. Although alter-
natives appear to exist for use in the rigid foams, because of the high
degree of dependence of the sector on Group I chemicals, further analysis
of these alternatives is required. Another example is commercial
refrigeration (Table VII-4) under the refrigeration end use sector. This
sector is 90 percent dependent on Group I and II chemicals, and therefore
may be severely impacted by limitations on Group I and II chemicals.
However, the level of dependence suggests alternatives exist other than
Group I and II chemicals. In addition, reciprocating air conditioning is
only 10 percent dependent on Group I chemicals. If limitations were placed
on only Group I chemicals, the potential impact on the sector would be
reduced. . .
Table VII-5 summarizes the consuming industry response times developed
in Chapter V. The three primary types of responses to chemical use re-
strictions are emission reductions, substitute products, or substitute
chemicals. . .
With the exception of aerosol applications, for which emission reduc-
tions are not an alternative, most current uses of the chemicals could
VII-16
-------
Table VII-4. DEPENDENCE OF USE CATEGORIES ON POTENTIALLY CONTROLLED CHEMICALS - 1973
<
H
M
Chemical consuming
sectors
b
Propellants
Aerosol hairsprays
Anti-perspirants
Other
Solvents
Metal cleaning
Dry cleaning
Electronics aerospace
Other
Chemical Intermediates
Fluorocarbon resins
F-ll
F-12
Vinylidene chloride
Blowing agents
Rigid polyur ethane
Flexible polyurethane
Refrigeration
Appliances
Mobile air-conditioning
Room and unitary
air-conditioning
Commercial refrig.
Commercial A/C
-reciprocating
—centrifugal
Group I
Percent
using
F-ll
95
95
20
0
0
0
Small
0
0
0
0
81 (includes
F12)
49 (includes
F12)
0
0
0
0
0
10
Percent
using
F-12
NA
NA
NA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
MA
NA
100
98
0
87
10
80
Percent using
carbon
tetrachloride
0
0
0
0
0
0
Small
0
100
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Group II
Percent
using
F-22
0
0
Small
0
0
0
0
90-95
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
100
3
90
10
Percent using
methyl
chloroform
0
0
0
45
0
0
Small
0
0
0
-30-35
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Percent using all
other fluorocarbons/
chlorocarbons
5
5
10
55
95+
95+
95+
5-10
0
0
65-70
4
6
0
0
0
10
a. Rows do not always total to 100 because all chemicals used in each use category are not included.
b. F-ll and F-12 are treated together in the column under F-ll. Strictly speaking, F-ll is used as
a vapor pressure depressant, in combination with F-12 as a propellant.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry contacts.
-------
Table VII-5. CONSUMING INDUSTRY RESPONSE TIMES TO CHEMICAL USE RESTRICTIONS
Consuming industry
Intermediate chemical applications
Propellant applications
Refrigerant applications c
Appliances
Mobile air conditioners
Home air conditioners
Commercial refrigeration
Commercial air conditioners
- reciprocating
- centrifugal
Blowing agent applications
Flexible foams
Rigid foams '
Solvent applications
Emission reduction by
equipment upgrading
(years)
Not an option
Not an option
2-3
3-4
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
1
Primary response
to ban of chemical use
(years)
2-7
1-2
to absorption to F-22
4-6 3-4
Indefinite Indefinite
3-5 zero
4-6 3-4
3-5 2-3
2-3 1-3
six .months
3
1-2
Conversion
substitute chemicals
(years)
5-10
4-10
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
-
5-11
5-11
six months
4-9
4-9
M
V
(-•
oo
a. The primary response times are the elapsed times required for the consuming industries to
introduce substitute products to meet the demand now satisfied by the controlled chemicals
or products using the chemicals.
b.The conversion to substitute chemicals times are those required to develop new chemicals
with properties similar to the banned compounds and to modify the products using the banned
chemicals. .
c.In the event of a ban of F-ll and F-12, most refrigerant applications would be converted
to F-22. If F-22 is.also banned, other refrigerants could be used or some products
could be converted to absorption systems.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry contacts.
-------
achieve significant emission reductions in two ,to,,three .years. If the
, ' ' \.'4 ' *•_'( • . i .11 ' ' •
chemicals cannot be used, the consuming industries would have to switch
to existing products not using the chemicals or redesign products to use
substitute chemicals. For the refrigerant application in particular,
comparable substitute chemicals do not exist and a five to eleven year
>y "-•
period may' be required to develop the substitutes and design new equip-
ment to use them.
A comparable period may be required to develop comparable liquified gas
propellants, but such a requirement is not as clear since some alterna-
tive propellants currently exist, though with somewhat different performance
characteristics.
Table VII-6 was constructed tp show the importance of the chemicals
in determining final product prices. The table lists the percent of a
final product selling price accounted for by the input chemical cost.
Solvent uses are shown as not applicable since the solvents are "consumed"
in the manufacture of a number of final products and represent a very small
(and indeterminate) percent of the final product prices in many cases .
An example is the use of these solvents to clean electronic computer
components at one extreme, and use to dryclean clothes at the other
extreme. The 20 percent of aerosol product cost represented by
propellant indicates that a large increase in the cost of the propellant
will have a significant impact on the aerosol price and thus potentially
on the sales of the aerosol products. In contrast, the refrigerant
represents 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of the price of appliances. A
major increase in refrigerant prices would have a very small impact on
the appliance price.
VII-19
-------
Table VI1-6. VALUE OF CHLOROCARBONS AND FLUOROCARBONS
RELATED TO PRICES OF END USE PRODUCTS - 1973
Chemical
Consuming product
Cost of chemical/
price of product
F-ll, F-12
Carbon tetrachloride
F-ll, F-12, F-22
Carbon tetrachloride,
Methyl chloroform,
F-113
F-ll, F-12
Propellant applications"
hair spray
antiperspirant
Intermediate applications
F-ll, F-12
Refrigerant applications
appliances
mobile air conditioner
room & house air conditioner
commercial refrigeration
commercial air conditioning
(chillers)
reciprocating
centrifugal
Solvent applications
Blowing agent applications
15-20%
20-25%
35-40%
0.1% - 0.2%
1-2%
0.2%
0.1% - 1%
0.1% - 1%
3%
N.A.
5%
a
Based on manufacturer's price.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
VII-20
-------
D. ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS
1. Introduction
The objective of this section is to identify those industry sectors
likely to be impacted by the regulatory options outlined in Section B of
this chapter and to assess the relative magnitude of the impact.
Table VII-7 was constructed to summarize the results of the economic
impact assessment. As described in Section B, nine possible control
strategies have been considered for two groups of chemicals. An estimate
has been made of the impact resulting from the 18 alternatives on 10 pri-
mary impact industry sectors. Estimates have not been made of changes in
consumer prices, production levels, or job levels.
As a tool for categorizing the magnitude of economic impact, five
levels of impact were defined:
Levels of Economic Impact
1. Severe Impact
A Severe Impact implies that most companies in the.sector will be
affected, at least to a moderate degree (some seriously), and more
than 40 percent of the directly related business activity of which
the chemical production or chemical .consuming production is a part
will be ended or significantly disrupted.
2. Substantial Impact
A Substantial Impact implies that some firms in the sector will
experience at least a moderate arid in some cases a serious impact,
and a significant portion (greater than 10 percent but less than
40 percent) of the directly related business activity of which
VII-21
-------
Table VII-7. SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM REGULATORY OPTIONS
. Regulatory
options
, A
6 BOS.
" B
2 A
2> B
a A
3' B
A
«• B
c A
3 yrs.<
J' B
, A
6' B
, A
7' B
_ A
«• B
6 yrs.
« A
'• B
Producers
of basic
chemicals
2-3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
•^ Propellent appl
Aerosol Indus
Fillers
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
3-5
3-5
Can manu-
facturers
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
npact sect
ry
Valve manu-
facturers
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
2-3
3-5
3-5
Marketers
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
*»~
Refrigeration &
air conditioning
manufacturers
1
1
4
4
5
5
4
4
1-2
1
4
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
fon-propellant ap
Users of
blowing agents
• (rigid foams)
2
2
3
3
4
. 4
3-4
3-4
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
,^ VJ ^~~
Users of
solvents
5
3
5
5
5
S
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Users of
chemical
intermed.
5
3
5
4
5
5
5
4
5
3
5
4
5
5
5
4
5
5
to
to
IMPACT CODE
1 - severe
2 - substantial
3 - moderate
4 - limited
5 - essentially none
REGULATORY OPTIONS
REGULATORY SUB-OPTIONS
Chemicals controlled:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Sub-option A: F-ll, F-12, carbon tetrachloride
Sub-option B: F-ll, F-12, carbon tetrachloride,
F-22, methyl chloroform
Ban all but replacement uses of controlled chemicals after six months.
Regulation of non-prppellant uses and ban of propellant uses after six months.
No regulation of non-propellant uses and ban of propellant uses after six months.
Governraeit control of total chemical production after six months.
Ban all but replacement uses of controlled chemicals after three years.
Regulation of non-propellant uses and ban of propellant uses after three years.
No regulation of - non-propellant uses and a ban of propellant uses after three years.
Government control of total chemical'production after three years.
No regulation of non-propellant applications and ban of propellant uses after six years.
aSee text of report for definition of these terms.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.
-------
the chemical production or chemical consuming production is a part
will be ended or significantly disrupted.
3. Moderate Impact
A Moderate Impact occurs when a few firms in a sector will
experience a moderate impact on sales or profits, and no more than
a small portion (less than 10 percent) of the directly related busi-
ness activity of which the chemical production or chemical consuming
production is a part will be ended or significantly disrupted.
4. Limited Impact
The Limited Impact category includes those situations in which the
regulations would Impact firms in a sector or the production in the
sector related to the controlled chemicals only through increases in
product prices. If a reduction in a chemical's production or the
imposition of a tax results in a large increase in the chemical's
price, the resulting product price increase in sectors continuing to
use the chemical may result in some unit sales fall-off. Equipment
upgrading to reduce emissions to the atmosphere would also raise
product prices and fall in this category if the regulation imposed
no other limitations on continued production. While the magnitudes
of these price and sales changes have -not been defined, the instances
when they may occur have been identified as Limited Impacts.
VII-23
-------
5. No Impact
The No Impact category covers instances when the proposed regulations
would have essentially no impact on the firms or production of a
particular sector related to the controlled chemicals. Very small
price increases are possible under this category.
The economic sectors which could potentially be affected by the nine
regulatory approaches can be divided into the production sectors (basic
chemicals) and the consuming sectors. The producing sectors will be
affected because a portion of their production Will be ended or restricted.
The consuming sectors can be further divided into the propellant applica-
tions (subdivided into fillers, cans, valves, and marketers) and the non-
propellant applications. This division of the consuming sectors corresponds
to the division among alternatives for reducing emissions to the atmosphere.
About 50 percent of the atmospheric losses are attributed to the
aerosols, and there are no opportunities for continuing to use the
fluorocarbons in aerosols but not allowing them to escape to the atmos-
phere. Thus, one regulatory option is to ban the use of fluorocarbons in
aerosols or not to ban them. In the other consuming sectors, there are
some opportunities for reducing emissions without banning the use of
the chemicals. These emission reduction possibilities add a third regu-
latory opportunity for the non-propellant consuming sectors.
The restrictions are assumed to go into effect either at the end of
six months or after three years. The ninth regulatory approach considers
just a ban on propellent uses after six years.
VII-24
-------
Under each of,the nine regulatory approaches are sub-options A and
B. The A options consider restrictions on the production of only F-ll,
F-12, and carbon tetrachloride. Almost all propellant uses of fluoro-
carbons use F-ll or F-12, and the opportunities do not appear to be great
for moving to other fluorocarbons as substitute propellants. About 95 per-
cent of carbon tetrachloride is used to make F-ll and F-12 and thus the
three chemicals must be considered together.
Under regulatory sub-option B, F-22 and methyl chloroform are re-
stricted in addition to the other three chemicals. As far as propellant
applications are concerned, there are no differences between the two
options. If sub-option A is imposed, refrigeration and air conditioning
producers can use F-22 (R-22 in refrigeration terminology) in many appli-
cations, though some design and equipment changes would be required.
Under sub-option B, this opportunity will not be available and a conver-
sion to another refrigerant or another cooling technology, such as ,
absorption systems, may be required.
Methyl chloroform is a major solvent, while the other chemicals have
only limited solvent uses. Therefore, only sub-option B has implications
for the solvent applications of chlorocarbons, though important chloro-
carbon solvents are not considered in the analysis. Under the regulation
as proposed, most users of methyl chloroform would probably.switch to a
halocarbon solvent not being controlled, such as F-113. This opportunity
substantially mitigates the potential impact of the regulations on the
users in comparison with a broader ban on all chlorocarbon and halocarbon
solvent uses.
VII-25
-------
Of the chemicals considered, only F-ll and F-12 are used as blowing
agents. The economic impacts of sub-option B are therefore identical to
A for the blowing agent uses. The producers of flexible foam appear to
be able to convert to methylene chloride as a substitute blowing agent if
restrictions are placed on the fluorocarbon blowing agents. Since the
conversion could be effected in six months, the economic impact would only.
be seen in possible price changes. The producers of rigid foams have a
much more difficult conversion problem, and for this reason only the
rigid foam producers have been considered in the impact analysis.
The uses of the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons as intermediate
chemicals (raw material inputs) for the production of other final product
chemicals were discussed extensively in Chapter VI. Carbon
tetrachloride is an intermediate for the production of F-ll and F-12.
When a fluorocarbon or chlorocarbon is used as an intermediate, the pro-
cessing takes place in a closed system and the final product does not
usually retain the same characteristics which potentially could affect
the ozone. The emissions of fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons from uses
as intermediates are about 1 percent of the tonnage usedi However, ending
the availability of the chemicals could have profound effects on the pro-
ducts using them. This potential for a large economic impact is obscured
somewhat because, of the five chemicals considered in this economic impact
assessment, only methyl chloroform and F-22 have significant uses as
intermediates (excluding carbon tetrachloride uses in making F-ll and
F-12).
Under the regulatory options as defined, sub-option A has virtually
no impact on the users of fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons as intermediates
VII-26
-------
because the three chemicals considered are not used extensively as inter-
mediates. Under sub-option B, some economic impact would be experienced
because methyl chloroform has some limited intermediate applications and
F-22 is used for making fluorocarbon polymer.. However, the economic impact
of restrictions in the availability of these two chemicals would be much
less than that of a broader ban on fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon products.
Such a broad ban would have significant economic Implications for complex,
capital-intensive plants dedicated to products using the fluorocarbon and
chlorocarbon, intermediates.
2. Discussion of Regulatory Options
Option 1. Ban All But Replacement Uses of Controlled Chemicals After
Six Months
A. Under this option, .all new uses of F-H, F-12, and carbon tetra-
chlpride, except a limited number of specifically identified critical
uses, would be banned six months after the issuance of the regulation.
Recharging existing refrigeration and air conditioning equipment would be
allowed as would chemical production to,meet this demand.
No aerosol, products using F-ll and F-12 would be produced after the
ban. Within six months, adequate supplies of substitute products will
not be available, and the impact on aerosol marketers will be substan-
tial. Until two to three years after the ban there will not be a re-
storation of the supply/demand balance with non-aerosol products replacing
the F-ll and F-12 aerosol products. .Even after three years, the current
sales of aerosol products measured by units sold or dollar sales may hot
be restored. Some consumers who.now buy the fluorocarbon aerosol products
may not find the substitute products satisfactory.for their purposes and
thus may not switch. This could; result in a permanent loss of market in
VII-27
-------
some product categories. For example, some hair spray users may turn to
other methods of maintaining their hair style such as pump sprays while
others may find no product satisfactory and change hair styles.
The contract fillers of aerosol products and the valve manufacturers
are highly dependent on aerosol sales. The fluorocarbons are used in about
50 percent of U.S.-produced aerosol products. Under this regulatory
option, their activities would be even more significantly affected than
the marketers. The sales of the fillers and valve manufacturers could
decline by 50 percent when the ban took place. The introduction of sub-
stitute products over the following year will not be of much benefit since
most of these products will not be in aerosol form. The potential for
using compressed gas aerosols, such as compressed CO., and new valve
designs was described in earlier parts of the report. In the event of
a ban after six months, these potential substitutes, even if technically
available, could not be brought on line as quickly as the existing non-
aerosol products when production capacity simply needs to be expanded.
Thus, under the most optimistic assumptions, a ban on using F-ll and
F-12 in aerosols after six months would dramatically reduce the sales
of fillers and valve manufacturers, and the reduction would continue for
at least two years.
The can manufacturers would experience a moderate impact as a result
of an end of fluorocarbon aerosol production. While all aerosol cans
are 43 percent of general packaging cans, they were only 3.6 percent of
total U.S. can production in 1973. About half of the aerosol cans would
be affected by the ban. The introduction of the substitute products
would not reduce the impact on can manufacturers since most of the sub-
stitutes would use glass or plastic containers.
VII-28
-------
For the manufacturers of refrigeration and air conditioning equip-
ment, a ban on F-12 would have a severe economic impact. Only certain
kinds of products are now made using Fr22, and a total conversion to
F-22 could not be,achieved within six months. A majority of current
production by the 'industry would probably end at the six months date and
gradually come back over a three to five year period as the production
of products using F-22 is expanded and producers convert their products
to F-22, other refrigerants, or absorption technologies.
The F-ll and F-12 fluorocarbons are major blowing agents for both
rigid and flexible foams. Methylene chloride can be substituted for the
fluorocarbons in the flexible foams within six months. However, such a
simple option does not exist for the rigid foams. The existing equipment
for producing the rigid foam can be converted to use CO 'and water, but
the foam then loses much of its insulating properties. Without the
fluorocarbon blowing agent, the foam will lose its competitive advantage
over Less expensive insulating materials such as fiberglass. If a .ban on
the use of fluorocarbons is imposed after six months, a substantial portion
of the rigid foam production would end. There is no guarantee that the
competitive problem of lower insulation can be overcome even after three
years. .
None of the three chemicals controlled under sub-option A have sig-
nificant uses as solvents, and these consuming sectors would be unaffected
by this regulatory option.
With the exception of carbon tetrachloride being an intermediate for
the production of F-ll and F-12, the three chemicals do not have important
intermediate uses, and there is no impact in this sector.
VII-29
-------
The Impact of regulatory option 1A on the basic chemicals producers
(F-ll, F-12, carbon tetrachloride) has been categorized as moderate. In
the first year of the ban, production of the three chemicals would be
about 25 percent of the level of the previous year (5 percent for critical
uses and 20 percent for recharging existing equipment). From the perspec-
tive of the total business activity of the producers and their chemical
sales, the ban would not represent a major sales reduction. For all of
the fluorocarbon producers, with, the exception of the Racon Corp., the
sales of all fluorocarbons account for less than 10 percent of chemical
sales. Thirty-one percent of Racon's chemical sales are attributed to
fluorocarbons and the ban would be important to that producer.
The end of F-ll and F-12 production would reduce current U.S. fluoro-
carbon production by 80 percent and clearly implies a very significant
impact on that particular segment of the chemical industry. Since the
producers are mostly major chemical producers for whom the fluorocarbons
are a significant though small activity, the economic impact has been
classed as less than if the viability of the firms were threatened by the
ban.
Option IB
Under this option, F-22 and methyl chloroform use would be banned
at the end of six months in addition to F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetra-
chloride.
The impact of this option on the propellant applications would be
the same as under option 1A, since F-22 has only very small prppellant
uses.
VII-30
-------
The Impact of this option oh the refrigeration and air conditioning
industry .would be .extremely'severe. A large and important percentage
of the current refrigeration and air conditioning equipment now uses F-22
and it .is, a potential substitute in many applications if F-ll and F-12 are
banned. If all three are banned in six months, most refrigeration and air
conditioning equipment production would end for a period of two to three
years while products using other refrigerants or an absorption technology
are developed. < • . '
Methyl chloroform is a major solvent. However, the impact has been
assessed as moderate because opportunities exist for using solvents not
included in the ban, such as F-113. There will be some disruption for a
period of six months to a year after the ban takes effect while processing
equipment is modified and material compatibility problems are worked out.
Methyl chloroform is also used by Dow as ah intermediate for the
production of vinylidene chloride, a plastic wrapping material. About
9 percent of methyl chloroform production is used as an intermediate.
While substitute wrapping materials are available, the vinylidene chloride
production facilities will not be able to be easily converted to other
products.
The impact of this option on the basic chemicals producers can be
viewed as similar to option 1A. For the three methyl chloroform producers,
the reduced sales would be a fairly small change in total chemical sales.
Option 2. Regulate Non-Propellant Uses' and Ban Propellant Uses
After Six Months : ,
A. Under this regulatory option, F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetrachloride
could be produced without limitation. However, their'use as 'prbpellants
Vil-31
-------
would be banned (except in certain critical uses) and requirements would
be issued for equipment upgrading to reduce atmospheric emissions from
other uses.
The impact of this option on the aerosol industry would be identical
to that of option 1A. There would be a major impact on the fillers, valve
manufacturers, and marketers with opportunities for recovery by the mar-
keters as substitute products are introduced.
For the refrigeration and air conditioning industry, the regulation
could result in a small change in prices but probably no significant change
in sales volume. It is not assumed that only reduced emission equipment
could be sold after six months. A redesign period of about a year would
follow issuance of the regulation, with routine production of the new
refrigeration and air conditioning units commencing in about 2-3 years.
The manufacturers would have to improve valves and fittings, and F-ll and
F-12 could cost somewhat more. But the total change in product prices is
expected to be less than 5 percent.
The economic impact of this option on the firms using the chemicals
as blowing agents has been categorized as moderate. The technology for
reducing emissions does not exist and could not be installed for two to
four years. As mentioned above, there is some opportunity to use substitute
products. As a caution, it is noted that in addition to the few large com-
panies accounting for 70 percent to 80 percent of foam production, there
are a large number of smaller firms who may have relatively more difficulty
making the necessary investments.
Since the products are not used as solvents or inturmediater;, there .
would be no impact from this regulation within the solvent or chemical
intermediate sectors.
VII-32
-------
The impact of option 2A on the basic chemicals producers is similar
to that of 1A because the half of the annual production used in aerosols
would be ended, and a major part of the makeup sales for refrigeration
and blowing agent uses would be ended if their losses are reduced by
equipment upgrading. The economic impact on the basic chemicals sector
has been categorized as moderate.
Option 2B
Regulatory option 2B adds F-22 and methyl chloroform to the list of
controlled chemicals. The economic impact of the regulation on the
aerosol industry would be identical to that of option 1A and IB, since
the propellant uses of F-22 are very small.
The impact of the regulation on refrigeration and air conditioning
manufacturers would probably be the same as under option 2A - small pro-
duct price increases. The costs of upgrading equipment for using the
fluorocarbons is not likely to justify shifting from F-ll and F-12 to
F-22 under option 2A, nor are they likely to induce a shift away from all
three fluorocarbons under option 2B.
For blowing agent applications, the economic impact of 2B is iden-
i
tical to 2A since the added chemicals are not used as blowing agents.
The solvent uses will be affected because there will be additional costs
of vapor recovery equipment when using methyl chloroform. There may in
addition be some increases in the price of methyl chloroform if the vapor
recovery efforts result in lower yearly sales, as they should. It is
possible that imposing the vapor recovery requirements on methyl chloroform
and not other solvents will result in current users substituting uncon-
trolled solvents for current methyl chloroform uses. The magnitude of
VII-33
-------
this potential shift has not been evaluated, but it would result more from
a perception by the solvent users of the cost of using the chemical rather
than a significant impact on final product prices. The cost of the sol-
vent is usually a very small part of- the cost of producing products such
as circuit boards and high quality metal products.
The use of F-22 and methyl chloroform as chemical intermediates
will not be changed by the regulation except that the price of the
chemical may increase as a result of lower production levels.
For basic chemical producers, the regulation will have a slightly
heavier impact than 2A as a result of additional reduction in F-22 and
methyl chloroform production. The overall impact can still be charac-
terized as moderate.
Option 3. Do Not Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant
Uses After Six Months
A. Under this option, the use of F-ll and F-12 as propellants would
be banned after six months, but no other restrictions would be placed on
the use of the chemicals. Option 3A is equivalent to options 1A and 2A
as far as reducing emissions from aerosol products and the economic impacts
on the aerosol industry. The alternatives provide descending control of
losses to the atmosphere from non-propellant uses of the chemicals and
correspondingly lower economic impact.
The economic impact of the 3A option on aerosol fillers and valve
manufacturers is again classified as severe. The marketers would experience
a substantial impact and the can manufacturers would see a moderate impact.
The reasons for this level of impact are identical to those discussed
earlier.
VII-34
-------
The effect of the regulation on refrigeration and air conditioning
products would be1 'essentially zero. The cost of the refrigerants may
increase some as a result of reduced production for aerosol uses. How-
ever, the refrigerant accounts for about one percent of the price of
refrigeration products, arid moderate increases in the fluorocarbon prices
are not expected to significantly reduce refrigeration sales.
The impact of the regulation on blowing agent applications would be
somewhat greater than the refrigeration case. F-ll and F-12 costs rep-
resent about 5 percent of foam product prices. While there would be no
specific requirements on the industry in order to use the chemicals, higher
product prices resulting from higher chemical prices could produce a small
fall-off in foam product sales. This effect is not expected to be great
since there are no close substitutes for the flexible foams and the rigid
foams already have a price premium because of their unique insulating
properties.
There are no significant solvent uses of the chemicals and there are
expected to be no effects from the regulation among the solvent users.
The same is true in the chemical intermediate use category.
Because the current atmospheric losses of the chemicals in non-
propellant uses will not be abated as in option 2A, the production levels
of the basic chemicals will be close to current levels minus the production
now going to aerosols. The impact has been categorized as moderate for the
sector.
VII-35
-------
Option 3B , ; .
Option 3B adds F-22 and methyl chloroform to the list of chemicals
whose use as propellants would be banned. While F-22 has some very limited
uses as a propellant, the use of the two additional chemicals can be re-
garded as not changing as a result of the regulation. The overall economic
impact of option 3B would be identical to that of 3A.
Option 4. Institute Government Control of Total Chemical Production
After Six Months
A. Options 4A and 4B are intended to represent the potential regula-
tion by which the cost of using the designated chemicals would be greatly
increased by direct or indirect taxes or by direct restrictions on the
total production of the chemicals. The market would then be allowed to
redistribute the use of the chemicals among the highest value uses and
encourage the abatement of chemical emissions to the atmosphere.
Table VII-6 (earlier) listed the percentage of final product price
represented by the cost of the chemical used in the products. The solvent
applications are shown as N.A. (small). However, a sharp increase in the price
of fluorocarbon and chlorocarbon solvents would encourage the recovery of
vapors lost in use. Substantial efforts are now made to recover emissions
of F-113, which is more expensive than methyl chloroform. . The other cate-
gory of uses to be most affected by higher chemical prices is the propellant
application. About 25 percent of the product costs are now propellant
costs. In order to achieve a 50 percent reduction in the production of
F-ll and F-12, the cost of the products would have to be sufficiently high
to discourage most of the current aerosol uses of F-ll and F-12. While the
level of such a price is unknown, it is assumed for the purposes of this
VII-36
-------
analysis that approximately a 50 percent reduction in the production of
the controlled chemicals will be achieved and most of the aerosol uses
will be ended or substantially reduced. Due to the nature of aerosols as
convenience products, it will be very difficult to predict what demand
response will be to particular price increases. A period of testing
demand response at several higher tax levels may be required before sales
decline sufficiently or producers stop making the products in the face
of the government actions.
The .attractiveness of using a high tax or a system of auctioning
production rights is that it is easier to administer and no government
body is forced to make decisions, about more and less important uses of the
chemicals. In addition, there do not need to be any enforcement agencies
for assuring that equipment specifications are met or emissions are kept
below some specified level.
Under option 4A, the aerosol industry would ultimately experience
an impact similar to that of an outright ban of fluorocarbon uses in
aerosols. There would be something of a transition period while the
market adjusted, but eventually the production of aerosol products
using F-ll and F-12 would be substantially reduced and the marketers,
fillers, and valve manufacturers would have had their activity substan-
tially impacted. The same sequence of industry responses would then
ensue as under a formal ban of the propellants.
The refrigeration manufacturers would be least affected by the regu-
lation because the cost of the refrigerant is such a small portion of the
total product price. The cost of maintaining the equipment and replacing
VII-37
-------
the refrigerant falls on the equipment purchaser, not the manufacturer.
There is thus no strong incentive on the manufacturer to upgrade the
equipment to reduce emission losses, even though the losses will be more
expensive to make up. There is probably not sufficient incentive to
switch from F-ll or F-12 to F-22 which is not controlled under 4A.
Users of the chemicals as blowing agents will be given a strong
incentive to recover the emissions or switch to different blowing agents.
There are opportunities for doing both and there is the additional possi-
bility that the sales of the foam products will be reduced by price
increases resulting from increases in the blowing agent costs. While
none of the uses of the blowing agents will be directly restricted by
the regulation, the potential for at least limited disruptions of the
firms using the chemicals is sufficiently large to warrant a three to
four impact classification. Price changes will clearly be seen and the
loss of sales by the industry as a whole and smaller firms in particular
is a possibility.
The chemicals covered by option 4A are not used as solvents and, thus,
this category of firms will not be affected. The same is true of the
intermediate chemicals category.
The total level of chemical production would be very similar
to that under option 2A. The production of F-ll, F-12, and
carbon tetrachloride would be reduced by about 50 percent, and the
impact on the producing firms can be described as moderate.
VII-38
-------
Option 4B . ;
Option 4B adds F-22 and methyl chloroform to the list of chemicals
having their total production controlled by government imposed taxes or
production restrictions.
Among the consuming sectors, only chemical intermediate uses are
expected to.be influenced differently. The impacts of option 4B on
the aerosol industry would be essentially the same as option 4A, since
the added chemicals do not have large uses as propellants. The refrige-
ration manufacturers would not be additionally affected (though F-22 is
an important refrigerant) for the same reasons as described above.
Because a large percentage of methyl chloroform production is used
as a solvent, a large increase in its price is directly seen by consumers
with some options for converting to alternative solvents. The result
could be a major shift to chlorocarbon or fluorocarbon solvents whose
prices are not increased. In most cases, the regulation will not
measurably affect the users of methyl chloroform as a solvent, but their
response to a price increase could affect the producers of the chemicals.
Option 5. Ban All But Replacement Uses of Controlled Chemicals
After Three Years
A. Options 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 are intended to test whether a delay in
implementing a ban or restriction would lessen the economic impact while
not exposing the Earth to unacceptable risks resulting from further possible
damage to the ozone layer. During the three years following the announce-
ment of the pending restrictions, the consuming industries would have an
opportunity to convert to other chemicals or substitute products. For
many of the users of the fluorocarbons and chlorocarbons, three years
"'*'*..•.,.
VII-39
-------
seems to be in the middle of the estimated conversion time range. There
is a significant difference between the economic Impact of a ban at the
end of two years and one at the end of four years. The three year ban
may not adequately show this difference.
Option 5A is identical to 1A except that the ban of the use of
F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetrachloride would not take effect until three
years after the announcement of the ban. If regulatory option 5A is pro-
mulgated, the aerosol marketers will have time for an initial response
with substitute products, though they may not be aerosol products. The
impact on the marketers is classified as moderate because while their pro-
duct line will undergo a drastic change and there probably will be revenue
losses, their continuity of participation in their primary markets will
not be interrupted.
The impact on the aerosol fillers and valve manufacturers has a
range of uncertainty because it cannot be predicted with any certainty
whether aerosol products will be available as substitutes after three
years. The development of the manufacturing technologies and product
testing is now underway for compressed CO. aerosols, and these products
may be available within three years. There is also information-to
indicate the possible availability of substitute liquified gas propellants
within three years. To indicate the most likely range of impacts, the
fillers and valve manufacturers have been designated as experiencing
substantial to moderate impacts. If substitute aerosol products are readily
available, the impacts will be moderate. If they are not available, the
impacts will be substantial. The substantial classification indicates that the
VII-40
-------
potential exists for very serious curtailment of their activities, but
the three year lead>time will allow for some steps to reduce the effects.
The can manufacturers are estimated to experience no significant impact
because the three years will allow them time to adjust the utilization
of their production capacity now dedicated to aerosols.
The refrigerant applications are categorized as experiencing a sub-
stantial impact from a ban at the end of three years. Under option 5A,
the manufacturers .could convert to F-22 or other refrigerants instead
of F-ll and. F-12. They would also have the option of converting to a dif-
ferent refrigeration system. For some refrigeration and air conditioning
products, a conversion to F-22 could be well underway within three years,
but production! to fully satisfy demand might not be seen for an additional
year or so. It is not now apparent how some types of equipment could be re-
Designed within three years without F-ll and F-12.
The rigid foam blowing agent applications of F-ll have been classified
as experiencing a moderate impact. Alternative blowing agents can be used
to make the rigid foams, but they lose part of their insulation capacity
and thus their competitive advantage. The possibility exists that even
with a three year lead time, the rigid foams will not be satisfactorily
reformulated to maintain their current share of the insulating market.
The participation of many smaller producers suggests that such an even-
tuality would impose a severe impact on these smaller producers.
There is no impact in the solvent or intermediate application cate-
gories since there are essentially no such uses of these three chemicals.
For the basic chemical producers, the impact of a ban after three
years is less than that of an immediate ban. The reduced production of
VII-41
-------
the three chemicals would be offset in a relatively minor way by increased
production of substitute chemicals such as F-22. -While three :years would
allow time for the companies to work on substitute chemicals for the
current major markets, it is not likely that new chemicals can be tested
and their production facilities brought on line within three years. The
impact of option 5A on the basic chemicals sector is classified as moderate
because the revenues from these products represent such a small percent
of the producing companies' revenues. These impacts would be less than
in option 1A, where only six months elapsed before the imposition of the
ban. ' .
Option 5B
Option SB adds F-22 and methyl chloroform to the chemicals whose new
uses will be banned at the end of three years. The primary effect of their
addition is that F-22 is no longer available as an alternative refrigerant
to F-ll and F-12 and the large usage of methyl chloroform as a solvent in
metal cleaning and degreasing must be switched to another solvent.
Methyl chloroform has no uses as a propellant and F-22 has only very
limited propellant uses. Therefore, the economic impact of option 5B on
the aerosol-related industries is virtually identical to 5A. Since neither
of the added chemicals is used as a blowing agent, the impact in that sec-
tor is also identical to 5A.
For the refrigeration industry, the impact of option 5B would
be more severe than option 5A. With F-22 no longer available as a substi-
tute refrigerant, the manufacturers would have to switch ti> alternative
refrigerants or systems. The startup time for producing these new
VII-42
-------
products would-be three to five years for most applications. It is not now
apparent what alternative technologies can be used for mobile air con-
ditioners. It is possible that major parts of the refrigeration industry
would have to shut down for a period of,time if option 5B were promulgated.
The impact has been categorized as severe.
Methyl chloroform is a major solvent. However, banning its use is
expected to have at worst a small impact on product prices of those
business activities using it as a solvent. Its use is primarily in more
routine cleaning operations for which substitutes (though perhaps less
satisfactory substitutes from a price or performance basis) can be found
within the three year period.
Both F-22 and methyl chloroform are used as chemical intermediates.
Ending their availability will have an effect on the final product pro-
ducers. This impact has been classified as moderate because even though
the production of the final products would be ended, the revenues from
the final products are a relatively small part of the total revenues of
the producing firms. .
The impact on the basic chemical producers would be about equal to that
under option 5A, and it is still classed as moderate.
Option 6. Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant Uses
After Three Years
A. Option 6A would require ending the use of F-ll and F-12 as
aerosol propellants and improved recovery of current emissions to the
atmosphere from other uses of the chemicals after three years.
The economic impact of this regulation on the aerosol-related
industries would be identical to that under option 5A. There would be
VII-43
-------
no impact in the solvent or intermediate categories since these chemicals
have very small solvent uses and no intermediate uses, except carbon
tetrachloride use for making F-ll and F-12.
For refrigeration applications, the manufacturers would be required
to upgrade the refrigeration equipment to reduce refrigerant losses.
The cost of these changes is expected to be small relative to the total
cost of the equipment, but the regulation could result in higher product
prices. The impact has been classed as limited.
The users of the chemicals as blowing agents are expected to experi-
ence a moderate impact, both becuase the price of F-ll and F-12 will increase
and because the expense of vapor recovery equipment will not be incidental.
The smaller producers may experience a relatively more substantial impact
because the vapor recovery facilities could make their operations rela-
tively more expensive than those of larger producers.
The basic chemical producers will experience an economic impact under
option 6A slightly less severe than under 5A. In addition to the 50 per-
cent production reduction as a result of the propellant ban, there would
be at least another 10 percent reduction resulting from the reduced leakage
in other uses. The impact has thus been classed as moderate, as it was
for 5A.
Option 6B
Under this option, the impact on the propellant and blowing agent
uses would be the same as under 6A. The chemical intermediate uses could
experience a price increase for products using methyl chloroform if there
is a major reduction in its volume of production.
VII-44
-------
The refrigeration industry would have to upgrade its equipment now
using F-22 as well as F-ll and F-12. These changes would result in some
increases in product prices. .
Option 7. Do Not Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant
Uses After Three Years
A. The only requirement under this option is a ban on propellant
uses of F-ll and F-12 after three.years. The effects of the regulation
on other consuming sectors would only result from possible increased
prices of the chemicals as a result of lower production.
The aerosol-related industries would experience the same heavy impact
.under option 7A, as under 5A. There would be no impact on the solvent or
intermediate use categories.
The refrigeration industry would have to pay more for F-ll and F-12,
but the cost of a refrigerant is usually less than one percent of final
product prices. The impact is classed as essentially none.
The impact of option 7A on the basic chemical industry is expected
to be moderate and equivalent to option 6A. A majority of the pro-
duction of F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetrachloride will be ended, but these
revenue losses represent a small percent of producer chemical sales.
Option 7B
This option is virtually identical to 7A since F-22 has only very
limited propellant uses and methyl chloroform has no propellant uses.
Option 8. Institute Government Control of Total Chemical Production
After Three Years
A. Under option 8A, the federal government would either impose a
limit on the total U.S. production of F-ll, F-12, and carbon tetrachloride
VII-45
-------
approximately equal to current use in propellants or tax the products
sufficiently to reduce production to the same level. A limit on total
production would result in price increases to a level similar to that
with the tax. This regulatory approach would have its largest impact on
the aerosol uses of the chemicals, since the propellant accounts for
about 20 percent of the price of the aerosol product. If the aerosol
producers continued to use F-ll and F-12 at the higher prices, the pro-
duct sales would be limited to those willing to pay a much higher price.
Beauty shops, for example, might be willing to pay twice the current
price for hair spray. However,' the objective of the regulation would be
to end the use of F-ll and F-12 as propellants in the mass market aerosols.
Faced with the government-imposed restriction on fluorpcarbon pro-
pellant availability, the marketers will undertake conversion strategies
very similar to those under an outright ban of the products. The cur-
rent production of non-aerosol products will be expanded, and compressed
gas aerosols will be introduced. The impact of option 8A must be classed
as very similar to that of the more direct bans of the use of the fluoro-
carbons as propellants.
The solvent and chemical intermediate use categories will experience
no impact since the three chemicals are not used in these sectors.
The refrigeration and air conditioning manufacturers are projected
to experience essentially no impact under option 8A. The manufacturers
may improve the equipment to reduce emission losses, but this is uncer-
tain since the cost of refrigerant replacement is borne by the purchasers
and not the manufacturers.
VII-46
-------
The users of the chemicals as blowing agents will experience a
strong incentive to switch to another blowing agent or install vapor
recovery equipment. .The current cost of F-ll and F-12 represents about
5 percent of the manufacturer's price of foam products. Increased
blowing agent costs or vapor recovery costs can require small but impor-
tant increases in foam prices. The three year delay in the regulation
should allow for a non-disruptive transition and a limited impact.
The basic chemical and raw material producers will experience pro-
duction curtailments similar to those under option 6A. The impacts have.
been classified as moderate.
Option 8B
Option 8B adds F-22 and methyl chloroform to the chemicals whose
production is controlled by government regulation. Neither of these
chemicals has significant use as a propellant. Under this option, there
would be essentially no impact on the refrigeration manufacturers for
the same reasons as cited above for option 8A. The higher prices would
put a large Incentive on users of methyl chloroform as a solvent to switch
to another solvent or install vapor recovery equipment. The effect of
either step could significantly increase the cost of using a solvent,
but this cost is a very small part of the costs of metal working and
5
other activities using the solvents, and essentially no impact is expected.
The impact of option 8B on the basic chemical manufacturers is
expected to be moderate.
VII-47
-------
Option 9. Do Not Regulate Non-Propellant Uses and Ban Propellant
Uses After Six Years
A. Option 9 is a test of whether a postponement of a propellant
ban to six years will reduce the economic impact of the regulation.
It appears likely that after six years a compressed gas aerosol
could be available as could an acceptable liquified gas propellant.
The impact of option 9A on the aerosol fillers and valve manufacturers
has been categorized as moderate to none, reflecting the possibility that
the marketers may not find a satisfactory aerosol substitute at a compe-
titive price and there may be a general shift to non-aerosol personal care
products. There is not expected to be a significant Impact on the mar-
keters if they have six years to adjust to the regulation.
Option 9A is expected to have no significant economic impact on the
other consuming sectors except a gradual adjustment to higher prices for
controlled chemicals, particularly by the users of blowing agents, as the
aerosol use of the chemicals declines.
Option 9B
The impact of option 9B would be identical to that of 9A because
methyl chloroform is not used as a propellant and F-22 has only limited
propellant uses. The addition of F-22 to the list of restricted chemicals
would prevent its being substituted for F-ll or F-*12 in current refrigera-
tion and aerosol applications.
VII-48
-------
E. POTENTIAL EMISSION REDUCTIONS „. ^ .,._ ,, -
Table VII-S summarizes estimated U.S. emission reductions for F-ll
and F-12 achieved through 1995 fo.r .regulatory-options 1A through 9A.
Table VII-9 shows the assumptions used in estimating the impact of the
control options on fluorocarbon emissions. These emission reduction
estimates consider the expected growth in demand for fluorocarbons as well
as the timing for the regulatory options. The emission reductions are
based on options 1-4 becoming effective in 1976, options 5-8 effective
in 1979, and option 9 'becoming effective in 1982.
Option 1A, which calls for a ban of new uses of F-ll and F-12, would
achieve a 92 percent reduction in potential emissions over a 20 year time
period (1976-1995). A 100 percent reduction would not be feasible because
of emissions from existing refrigeration systems and because "critical"
aerosol uses are not restricted under option 1A. Emissions from blowing
agent and solvent applications are assumed to be 100 percent eliminated.
An estimate is also made of the change in total emissions since the start
of F-ll & F-12 production (1945 is used as the first year of significant
production). The reduction of total potential emissions of F-ll and
F-12 from 1945 to 1995 under option 1A would be an estimated 70 percent.
Option 2A achieves an 82 percent reduction in potential emissions of F-ll
and F-12 over the 1976-1995 period. Option 2A, which restricts "non-
critical" aerosol uses and requires controls on refrigeration and blowing
agent applications, has a lower level of emission reduction than option 1A
because of the continued use, although at a restricted emission level, of
F-ll and F-12 in refrigeration and blowing agent applications. It is
assumed that 60 percent of emissions in refrigeration applications are
VII-49
-------
Table VII-8. U.S. EMISSION REDUCTION FOR F-ll AND F-12 ACHIEVED THROUGH 1995 WITH SELECTED REGULATORY SCENARIOS
Option
LA
2A
3A
4A
5A
6A
7A
8A
9A
No control
Percent reduction of F-ll and
F-12 cumulative potential
emissions over 1945
to 1995 period
70
63
53
61
63
56
48
52
38
0
Percent reduction of
F-ll and F-12 cumulative
potential emissions
from 1976 to 1995
92
82
70
80
83
74
63
69
54
0
Rank
1
3
6
4
2
5
8
7
9
10
Ui
o
Assumptions:
1. Options 1-4 effective 1976, options 5-8 effective 1979, and option 9 effective 1982.
2. Five percent growth in demand for uncontrolled uses.
3. Propellant applicants—critical uses are an estimated 5 percent of total potential demand.
4. Refrigeration—5 year half-life assumed for controllable existing fluorocarbon emissions;
only 60. percent of future emissions from refrigeration systems are controllable.
5. Foam blowing—assumed 50 percent reduction of potential emissions achievable with controls.
Source: 'Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
-------
Table VII-9. SUMMARY OF U.S. ANNUAL FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS WITH AND WITHOUT CONTROL
Consuming sector
Propellants
"Non-critical" use
"Critical" use
Refrigerants
Preventable and
recoverable use
Leakage not recoverable
and refrigerant not re-
coverable at disposal
Blowing agents
Preventable and
recoverable use
Uncontrollable use
Solvents
Total
Percent of total
F-ll & F-12
end use
95
5
57
43
50
50
0
i
F-ll & F-12
emissions with
no control
(million Ib)
1976 1979 1982
540 630 725
30 35 40
90 110 125
70 80 95
..
20 25 30
20 25 30
000
770 905 1045
1A
1976
0
30
80
60
0
0
0
170
2A
1976
0
30
80
70
0
20
0
200
F-ll
3A
.1976
0
30
90
70
20
20
0
230
& F-12 emissions
(million Ib)
4A
1976
70
30
90
70
20
20
0
300
5A
1979
0
35
95
70
0
0
0
200
6A
1979
0
35
95
80
0
25
0
235
with control
7A
1979
0
35
110
80
25
25
0
275
8A
1979
100
35
110
80
25
25
0
375
9A
1982
0
40
125
95
30
30
0
320
<
M
M
Assumptions: 1. Existing uses of F-ll and F-12 in refrigeration have a 5 year half-life (F-ll and F-12 emissions
from existing equipment after 5 years would be reduced by 50 percent).
2. 5 percent/year growth in total emissions of F-ll and F-12.
3. An estimated 60 percent of F-ll and F-12 emissions from refrigeration and 50 percent of F-ll and
F-12 emissions as blowing agents are preventable and recoverable.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc.
-------
preventable and recoverable and 50 percent of emissions in blowing agent
applications are preventable.
Option 3 only restricts "non-critical" aerosol uses of F-ll and F-12,
and as a result, only a 70 percent reduction in potential emissions is
achieved between 1976 and 1995. The continued, uncontrolled use of F-ll
and F-12 in refrigeration and blowing agent applications reduces the
potential level of emission reduction achievable. Option 4A, which re-
stricts production of F-ll and F-12, achieves a level of emissions similar
to option 2A at an estimated 80 percent. In the first year of control
(1976), option 4A will not achieve the same level of emission reduction
as option 2A, assuming only a 50 percent reduction in production. However,
in future years the assumption is made that a level restriction on produc-
tion will eventually eliminate "non-critical" aerosol uses of F-ll and F-12,
and will result in emission reductions in refrigeration and blowing agent
applications. Refrigeration equipment would be upgraded to reduce vapor
losses, and vapor recovery equipment would be installed at foam producing
facilities. As a result, option 4A is expected to have a similar impact
on emissions as option 2A. in later years, although the level of emission
reduction over the 1976-1995 period is slightly less because of the expected
smaller impact on emissions in the earlier years of production control.
Options 5A-9A are identical to options 1A-4A, except the regulations
become effective at a later date. The level of emission reduction in
options 5A-8A is reduced in comparison to the equivalent option where
controls are required in 1976 since no emission control is achieved during
the 1976-1978 period. However, the overall impact on emissions of a three
year delay in implementation of controls (over the 20 year period) is
VII-52
-------
limited. For example, options 2A and 6A achieve 82 percent and 74 per-
cent reductions in emissions respectively over the 1976-1995 period. This
represents only a 10 percent increase in total emissions over the 20 year
period.
Figures VII-1 and VII-2 show the estimated cumulative emissions of
F-ll and F-12 over the 1945-1995 period under the regulatory options 1A-
9A, in comparison with the estimated cumulative potential emissions,
assuming there is no control during the same time period. The figures
depict graphically the relative levels of emission reduction achievable
with each of the nine regulatory options.
VII-53
-------
CO
tfl
O
37,000
y>
33,000
29;000
25,000
21,000
17,000
13,000
9,000
5,000
1,000
IVA
IIIA
IIA
IA
REGULATORY OPTIONS
UNRESTRICTED GROWTH
1960
1970
1980
1990
Figure VII-1. Cumulative U.S. Atmospheric Emissions of F-ll and F-12
Fluorocarbons Without Restriction and Under Regulatory
Options IA-IVA
VII-54
-------
co
.0
CO
C
o
37,000
33,000
29,000
25,000
21,000
17,000
13,000
9,000
5,000
1,000
IXA
VIIIA
VIIA
VIA
VA
REGULATORY OPTIONS
UNRESTRICTED GROWTH
I960
1970
1980
1990
Figure VII-2.
Cumulative U.S. Atmospheric Emissions of F-ll and F-12
Fluorocarbons Without Restriction and-Under Regulatory
Options VA-IXA
VII-55
-------
VIII. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Preparation of this document was facilitated through the special con-
tributions of the following individuals, companies and associations.
Mr. Ken Lloyd, EPA Project Officer, not only provided valuable guid-
ance, but also collected much of the information pertaining to ethylene
dichloride and vinyl chloride in this study. Messieurs John O'Connor,
Justice Manning and Allen Basala of EPA1s Strategies and Air Standards
Division and John Butler of EPA1s Office of Planning and Evaluation also
made invaluable contributions to the preparation of this report.
Individual industry and association contributors are too numerous to
list here, however, sincere appreciation is extended to the representatives
of the following companies and trade associations who made a special effort
to provide information used in the preparation of this report.
Aeropres E.I. DuPont deNemours & Company
Aeroquip Corporation General Motors, Delco & Frigidare
Aerosol Techniques Divisions
AFA/Thiokol The Gillette Company
Air-Conditioning and S.C. Johnson Company
Refrigeration Institute Liquid Carbonics
Allied Chemical Peterson/Puritan
Association of Home Appliance Phillips Petroleum
Manufacturers Plant Industries
Bristol-Myers Risdon Company
Chemetron Corporation Seaquist Valve Company
Chemical Specialties Manufact- Technical Petroleum Company
urers Association TRW Inc.
Detrex Chemical York, A Division of Borg-Warner
Diamond International, Calmar Union Carbide
Division Westinghouse
Dow Chemical
VIII-1
------- |