EPA-450/3-77-003c
August 1977
                    IMPROVEMENTS
      TO SINGLE-SOURCE MODEL
                          VOLUME 3:
               FURTHER ANALYSIS
          OF MODELING RESULTS

      U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
          Office of Air and Waste Management
       Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
       Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

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                                   EPA-450/3-77-003c
            IMPROVEMENTS
    TO SINGLE-SOURCE MODEL
VOLUME 3:  FURTHER ANALYSIS
      OF MODELING RESULTS
                       *>>

                    Michael T. Mills

                    GCA Corporation
                 GC A/Technology Division
                    Burlington Rd.
                Bedford. Massachusetts 01730
                  Contract No. 68-02-1376
                    Task Order 23
              EPA Project Officer: Russell F. Lee
                     Prepared for

            ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
              Office of Air and Waste Management
            Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
            Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

                     August 1977

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This report is issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to report
technical data of interest to a limited number of readers.  Copies are
available free of charge to Federal employees, current contractors and
grantees, and nonprofit organizations - in limited quantities - from the
Library Services Office (MD-35) , Research Triangle Park,  North Carolina
27711; or,  for a fee, from the National Technical Information Service,
5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield,  Virginia 22161.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
GCA Corporation, GCA/Technology Division,  Burlington Road, Bedford,
Massachusetts 01730, in fulfillment of Contract No.  68-02-1376, Task
Order 23.  The contents of this report are reproduced herein as received
from GCA Corporation. The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed
are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Environmental
Protection Agency.  Mention of company or product names is not to be
considered as an endorsement by the Environmental Protection Agency.
                  Publication No .  EPA-450/3-77-003c
                                 11

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                                    ABSTRACT

This report documents an evaluation of the model performance stratified by
six stability classes, three wind speed classes, and three mixing height
classes.  The model accuracy is found to be dependent on stability class.
For stabilities A and B, the model shows some tendency to overestimate con-
centrations, especially near the plant.  For stabilities D, E,  and F,  the
model greatly underestimates concentrations at all  but the most distant
sampler-  For stability C,  the model tends to agree with the measurements.
Higher wind speeds result in a trend toward overestimates at the Muskingum
plant, and a trend toward underestimates at the Canal plant. Fot the  Canal
plant, there does not appear to be a definite pattern between the accuracy
of the model estimates and  mixing height.   However, at the Muskingum plant,
large underestimates occur  for the lowest  mixing height class.   This implies
that the model is treating  the plume as penetrating the top of  the mixed
layer (with resulting concentration estimates of zero) more frequently than
actually happens.
                                    111

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                                CONTENTS






                                                                     Page





Abstract                                                              i:Li




List of Figures                                                        vi




List of Tables                                                        vii




Project Summary                                                      viii




Sections




I      Introduction                                                    1




II     Site and Data Base Description                                  4




III    Model Validation Procedures                                    13




IV     Model Validation Results                                       16




V      Conclusions and Recommendations                                22




VI     References                                                     24




Appendix




A      Cumulative Frequency Distributions                             25

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                            LIST OF FIGURES
No.

1     Map of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island Showing
      Locations of the Canal Plant                                     5

2     Sketch of the Canal Plant Area Showing the Locations of
      the Four Automatic S02 Stations by the Symbol©                  8

3     Sketch of the Muskingum Plant Areas Showing Locations of
      Four Automatic S02 Monitoring Stations                          11

4     Determination of Hourly Mixing Heights                          17
                                VI

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                               LIST OF TABLES


No.                                                                    Page

1      Plant Characteristics                                            6

2      Monthly Percent Sulfur Content of Fuel                           7

3      Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Stations for the Canal and             9
       Muskingum Plants

4a     Percentile for Wind Speed (Adjusted to 7 meters) and
       Mixing Height Stratification                                    15

4b     Percent Occurence of Different Stabilities for Canal
       and Muskingum                                                   15

5      Stability Class as a Function of Net Radiation and
       Wind Speed                                                      18

6      Model Validation Results for all Plants, Receptors and
       Meteorological Conditions (0 - Overprediction, U =
       Underprediction, A = Agreement)                                 21
                                  VII

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                            PROJECT SUMMARY

This is a summary of the results and conclusions made in the three parts
of this study, with some relevant interpretive comments.

The first part of the study deals with analyses of ratios of peak 1-hour
to mean 3-hour, and peak 1-hour to mean 24-hour concentrations.  Some
work had been done in previous studies; however, those results seemed to
be biased by the presence of a large number of very low concentrations.
In the present study this problem is avoided by analyzing only the peak-
to-mean ratios whose peak 1-hour value exceeds some arbitrary threshold
concentration.  Actually three such threshold concentrations are selected,
corresponding to the 95th, 98th and 99th percentile values of the 1-hour
concentration distribution.  The use of this restricted data set results
in more nearly log-normal frequency distributions of peak-to-mean ratios,
arid lower "standard geometric deviations of the peak-to-mean ratios.   The
geometric means and the medians increase slightly.  A comparison of the
50th and 95th percentile values of the peak 1-hour to mean 3-hour, and
peak 1-hour to mean 24-hour ratios is shown in Table S-l below, for both
the complete data set (from earlier studies) and the restricted data
set (the present study).  The results of a TVA study at the Paradise
power plant in Kentucky are also included for comparison.

Conservative estimates of maximum 24-hour concentrations have often been
calculated by dividing the estimated maximum 1-hour value by a factor of
four.  This factor was originally chosen from the 95th percentile ratio
found around the Paradise plant (see Table S-l).  The peak 1-hour to peak
24-hour ratio  (over a year's time) should occur somewhere between the
50th percentile and the 95th percentile values.  The value (assuming the
                                Vlll

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same approximate degree of conservatism)  is generally supported by the

peak-to-mean ratio distribution of the restricted data set (Table S-l).


The second part of the study involves testing and evaluation of several

possible model improvements.  Specifically, the following cases are
tested for the Canal power plant and the  Muskingum River power plant:

    1.  Base Case--Pasquill-Turner stability assignments with
        Pasquill-Turner dispersion curves;

    2.  Pasquill-Turner stability assignments with Gifford-Briggs
        dispersion curves;

    3.  Smith-Singer stability assignments  with Smith-Singer dispersion
        curves (one plant only);

    4.  Pasquill-Turner stability assignments with F.B.  Smith a
        curves and Pasquill-Turner a  curves;

    5.  F.B. Smith fractional stability assignments with F.B. Smith
        a  curves and Pasquill-Turner a  curves;
         z                             y

    6.  Base case stability assignments and dispersion curves, but
        with buoyancy flux (for plume rise  calculations) made pro-
        portional to emission rate.
The net outcome is that the proposed changes  yield  neither  signifi-
cantly better nor significantly worse results than  the  base case.


Based upon the results of this study it is  recommended  that the  methods
currently used for the calculation of dispersion coefficients  and  the

selection of stability classes not be replaced by alternate techniques,
at least until further model validation studies are conducted.   Since

data from only two power plants are used in this study  the  results should

not be considered definitive.  Nevertheless,  even from  these limited
results, a number of conclusions can be drawn:

    1.  The similarity between the Pasquill-Turner  and  Gifford-Brig^s
        dispersion coefficients (except for stability A)  requires
        that a large number of model validation exercises be carried
        out to determine which method is more accurate.
                                ix

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   2.  The use of  the  Smith-Singer  stability  assignment and
       dispersion  calculation methods  in  the   Single  Source Model
       may yield unrealistic frequency distributions  of 1-hour
       concentrations.  This observation  must be qualified,
       however, by the  fact that  the validation is  carried out
       only  for the Muskingum plant.   Since the rather subjective
       stability assignment scheme  may have been carried out
       differently at  the Muskingum plant, the use  of the
       Smith-Singer dispersion  coefficients with the  Single Source
       Model may give  better agreement with measured  concentra-
       tions if applied elsewhere.

   3.  Due to  the  strong variation  of  calculated concentrations
       as a  function of stability,  the use of fractional stability
       assignments should, in principle,  lead to more accurate
       model predictions.  The  F.B. Smith stability classification
       method  does not, however,  provide  better agreement between
       measured and calculated  concentration  frequency distributions,
       primarily because of its tendency  to select  slightly more
       unstable conditions.

   4.  The use of  a variable buoyancy  flux in the Single Source
       Model does  little to improve the agreement between measured
       and calculated  concentration frequency distributions.  This
       conclusion  is similar to others reached when more detailed
       or applicable emissions  or meteorological data have been
       used  in model validation exercises.  The success or failure
       of the  model in any given application  is much  more a function
       of the  assumptions regarding plume rise, dispersion, and
       terrain effects that form the  theoretical basis for the
       model.
The third part of the study consists of an evaluation of  the model per-
formance stratified by six stability classes,  three wind  speed  classes

and three mixing height classes.


The model accuracy is found to be dependent on stability  class.  For

stabilities A and B, the model shows some tendency  to over  estimate
concentrations, especially near the plant.  This  indicates  that vertical
dispersion is overestimated in the model, and  a  values are too large.
                               x

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For stabilities D, E, and F, the model greatly underestimates concen-
trations at all but the most distant sampler.  This indicates that
vertical dispersion in the model is underestimated for these stabili-
ties.  For stability C, the model tends to agree with the measurements.

Higher wind speeds result in a trend toward overestimates at the Muskingum
plant, and a trend toward underestimates at the Canal plant.

For the Canal plant, there does not appear to be a definite pattern
between the accuracy of the model estimates and mixing height.   However,
at the Muskingum plant, large underestimates occur for the lowest mixing
height class.  This implies that the model is treating the plume as
penetrating the top of the mixed layer (with resulting concentration
estimates of zero) more frequently than actually happens.   Thus, either
the mixing heights are underestimated, or the concept of complete plume
penetration may be in error.
                               xi

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     Table S-l.  COMPARISON OF PEAK-TO-MEAN RATIOS FOR COMPLETE AND RESTRICTED
                 DATA SETS
Plant name
Canal
Stuart
Muskingum
Philo
Paradise
Averaging
times of ratios
1-3 hourc
1-24 hourd
1-3 hour
1-24 hour
1-3 hour
1-24 hour
1-3 hour
1.24 hour
1-3 hour
1-24 hour
Complete
50th
percentile
of ratios
1.50
5.37
1.55
5.95
1.74
6.65
1.77
6.98
1.63
12.4
data set
95th
percentile
of ratios
1.02
1.69
1.00
1.93
1.00
2.38
1.04
2.47
1.00
4.00
Restricted
50th
percentile
of ratios
1.89
8.25
1.58
7.70
1.73
6.90
1.89
7.79
--
Q
data set
95th
percentile
of ratiosb'e
~1.20
~3.8
~1.00
~2.7
~1.15
~3.7
~1.20
~3.8
--
 Restricted to peak-to-mean ratios whose peak values exceed  the value  of the
99th percentile of the 1 hour concentrations.
b
 Percentile values given in terms of cumulative percent of ratios  greater than
the given values.
c
 Peak 1-hour to average 3-hour ratio for measured  minus background SO?
concentration.

 Peak 1-hour to average 24-hour ratio for measured minus background SOo
concentration.
g
 These values wete estimated from the appropriate  figures in Volume 1  of this
series.

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                               SECTION I
                              INTRODUCTION

This is the third in a series of reports dealing with possible improve-
ments to the EPA Single Source Model.  The evaluation of these model
improvements is based upon earlier model validation studies for four
                           1 2
fossil-fueled power plants. '   The first volume of this series examined
in detailed the peak to mean concentration ratio distributions (1- to 3 hour
and 1- to 24 hour) constructed by use of hourly S02 measurements taken in
the vicinity of the four plants.  The main objective of this study was to
investigate the properties of these peak to mean frequency distributions
as the 3 or  24-hour periods with peak 1-hour concentrations below various
threshold values were excluded.  The purpose of this exercise was to develop
representative peak to mean concentration ratios which could be used to
extrapolate model predictions of peak 1-hour concentrations to peak 3-hour
and 24-hour values.  During the second phase of our study we compared
different sets of dispersion curves (Pasquill-Turner, Gifford-Briggs,
F.B. Smith and Smith-Singer) and stability assignment methods (F.B. Smith
and Smith-Singer) with respect to their ability to yield accurate predic-
tions of 1-hour SOo concentration frequency distributions at two of the
power plants used in earlier studies.  The basic conclusion reached during
this phase of the study was that the Single Source Model, as it now stands
gives the best agreement with measured concentrations.  This result must
be qualified by the fact that only two plants were used and that not all
model formulations were tested.  Even after the second phase of the study
was completed, there still remained the question whether the Single Source
Model was providing reasonable estimates of ground level concentrations on
an hour by hour basis.  Up to this point, all of our model validation

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studies had been based upon a comparison of cumulative frequency distri-
butions of calculated concentrations and measured concentrations corrected
for background.  In principle one should be able to make hour by hour
comparisons of predicted and measured concentrations, but in practice even
a local wind direction measurement is not a reliable indicator of the
plume trajectory-  One can, however, carry out a more detailed model eval-
uation by comparing observed and calculated frequency distributions of
concentrations for specific types of meteorological conditions.  Of special
interest is the comparison of observed and calculated distributions for
the different atmospheric stability classes.

For a test of this stratified comparison of measured and calculated con-
centration frequency distributions we chose the Canal Power Plant in
Massachusetts and the Muskingum Power Plant in Ohio.  Results of an earlier
Single Source Model validation study at the Canal Plant^- showed an under-
prediction at all four receptor locations.  Through a comparison of model
predictions with measured concentrations for each stability we hoped to
gain a better understanding for the reasons for the underprediction at
Canal.  Also this procedure would help determine whether the relatively
good model agreement obtained for 1-hour concentrations at the Muskingum
plant was physically reasonable or simply due to a fortuitous combination
of over and underpredictions.  In addition to developing comparisons of
measured and calculated concentration frequency distributions for each
stability, we have also stratified the comparison according to selected
wind speed and mixing height ranges.  The comparison by wind speed could
point out difficulties with the plume rise formulation or the inadequate
treatment of terrain effects.  The model validation by mixing height range
should reveal, especially for the lower range of mixing heights, any
problems with the way inversion penetration or plume reflection is currently
handled in the model.

In the next section we shall describe the data base used in the stratified
comparison of measured and calculated concentration frequency distributions.

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Section III will deal with the techniques used in the stratification
of measurements and Single Source Model predictions according to stability
wind speed and mixing height.  Results of the validation study will be
presented in Section IV followed  by a summary and conclusions in Section V.

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                               SECTION II
                     SITE AND DATA BASE DESCRIPTION

In this section we shall describe the site characteristics, S09 monitoring
program and meteorological data base for the two power plants  (Canal and
Muskingum) included in the detailed model validation study.  Each topic
will be covered on a plant-by-plant basis.  Although this site and data
                                                                        1 2
base description has been presented in previous model validation reports ' ,
it is repeated here to provide a quick reference for physical site para-
meters such as source-receptor distance, which are needed for the analysis
of the model prediction for different ranges of meteorological parameters.

CANAL PLANT

Site Description

The Canal Plant is located on the south side of the Cape Cod Canal about
1.6 kilometers from the entrance on Cape Cod Bay (Figure 1).  The
surrounding terrain is gently rolling with elevations generally less than
60 meters above mean sea level.  The highest elevations in the area are
about 90 meters above sea level in the western end of the Cape.  Most of
the area is covered with scrub pine forests and low vegetation.

Data for the study were collected in 1971.  During that year, the plant
consisted of a single oil-fired unit with a generating capacity of 560
megawatts.  The top of the stack was about 91 meters above grade and 5.6
meters in diameter.  The main power plant structure to the north of the
stack totally enclosed the turbine generator and boiler.  The roofs of the
turbine and boiler rooms were about 30 meters and 59 meters above grade

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                                                                                   20
MASSACHUSETTS
I   R H O 0 E           . \
1            P8OVIDENCE
       Figure  1.   Map  of  eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island showing locations
                   of  the  Canal Plant.   Meteorological observations were used from
                   Quonset Point Naval  Air Station and Chatham

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respectively.  Stack and boiler data are given in Table 1.   The 1971
monthly percent sulfur content of the fuel used at the Canal Plant is
given in Table 2.
                      Table 1.  PLANT CHARACTERISTICS
Characteristic
Stack height, m
Diameter , m
Velocity, m/sec
Temperature, F
Number of boilers
per stack
Maximum generating
capacity per
stack, MW
Average per stack,
MW
Plant total, MW
Plant average, MW
Plant
Canal Muskingum
Stack
1
91
5.6
-
1
560
-
560
-
Stack
1
251
7.6
28.5
430
4
876
748
- — -
Stack
2
251
6.7
24.8
425
1
591
487
-• — — - -
1467
1235

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                    Table 2.
MONTHLY PERCENT
SULFUR CONTENT
OF FUEL
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Canal
2.0
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
Muskingum
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.5
4.7
5.0
4.7
4.7
4.3
4.6
4.5
4.4
Overview of Canal Plant Monitoring Program
S09 concentrations are measured at four locations on a continous basis
with Ultragas S02 Analyzers manufactured in Germany by H.  Wosthoff.
These instruments measure sulfur dioxide by the increase in conductivity
of an acidified hydrogen peroxide solution and have a full scale reading
of 0.4 ppm.  The instruments do not conform to the reference method  for
sulfur dioxide or to any of the specified equivalent methods.  They  have,
however; been extensively studied and one comparison noted a correlation
coefficient of 0.99 with the West-Gaeke method.  The instruments used
provide a continuous real-time chart trace and a tape printout giving
data, times and average concentration over consecutive 30 minutes.  The
sensitivity- of the instrument in combination with the chart recorder is
approximately 0.005 ppm.  The locations of the SO^ monitors with respect
to the Canal Plant are given in Figure 2 and Table 3.

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RTE 3 O
         (AFTER
          10/30/73)
           \
                         SAGAMORE
                           BEACH
         \
            \
               \
                                                 CAPE COO  BAY
                 O4 (PRIOR TO
                     10/30/73)
                                                                              N
                                                                        Q5   I
                                                                        km
                                                          SANDWICH
                                                          HARBOR
Figure  2.  Sketch of the Canal  Plant area showing the locations of the four automatic
          S0~ stations by the  symbolO

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       Table 3.  SULFUR DIOXIDE MONITORING STATIONS FOR THE CANAL
                 AND MUSKINGUM PLANTS
Plant
Canal



Muskingum




Station
No.
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
-
Name




Beverly
Hackney
Rich Valley
Caldwell
Top of stacks
Distance,
km
4.7
2.3
1.4
2.0
5.3
4.3
8.3
19.6
-
Heading,
degrees
119
138
224
312
140
40
35
35
-
Elevation above
stack base, m
10
4
40
20
64
82
101
128
251
Meteorological Data for Canal Plant
Bendix-Friez Aeorovanes are used to provide local wind speed and direction
data.  Through July 1971, the principal source of wind data was the
Aerovane mounted on a 12.2 meter mast located on the 58.8 meter boiler-
room roof.  Since July 1971, wind data are obtained from a second Aerovane
installed on a 44 meter tower near the top of Telegraph Hill approximately
5 kilometers south-southwest of the Canal Plant.  This hourly wind data
was used to define upwind receptor locations for calculation of hourly
background concentrations.  A station was considered to be a background
receptor if it was located outside the boundaries of a 90 degree sector
centered about the wind flow vector.  The concentrations for these back-
ground stations were then averaged and subtracted from the hourly concen-
trations at all stations.  Any resultant negative concentrations were set
equal to zero.  The on-site wind speed, wind direction and ambient tem-
perature data were also input to the Single Source Model after proper
conversion to a wind measurement height of 7 meters.  These stability
dependent wind speed corrections were based upon hourly atmospheric

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stabilities derived from a Single Source Model Preprocessor run using sur-
face meteorological data for 1971 collected at Quonset Point Naval Air
Station.  Hourly mixing heights for 1971 were based upon surface data from
Quonset Point, Rhode Island and upper air observations taken at Chatham,
Massachusetts.  In this way a "hybrid" Preprocessor output file was generated
containing on-site wind speed, wind direction and temperature measurements
and nonlocal stability and mixing height assignments.

MUSKINGUM PLANT

Site Description

The Muskingum Plant is located in southeastern Ohio on the Muskingum
River about 6 kilometers northwest of the town of Beverly.  Figure 3
indicates the location of the plant, the S09 monitoring sites, and the
surrounding towns.  The plant is in the river valley about 500 meters from
the valley walls which rise about 75 meters above the valley floor.  The
two 251 meter stacks are 640 meters apart and extend about 185 meters
above the surrounding terrain.  During 1973 the plant consisted of five
coal-fired units with a total capacity of 1467 megawatts (Table 1).
Percent sulfur content of the fuel for 1973 is given in Table 2.

Overview of the Muskingum Monitoring Program

Four  sulfur dioxide monitoring stations make up the monitoring network
(Figure 3 and Table 3).  Data were available from all stations
for January 1 to November 21, 1973.  During the entire year of 1973,
Station 1 missed 57 days and the other three stations missed approximately
41 days.  Instruments at Muskingum were Leeds & Northrup Company, Catalog
No. 7860-SW, Aeroscan Air Quality Monitors.  The sample was obtained by
passing ambient air taken from 5 feet above ground level, through an ab-
sorption column along with an absorption solution.  The sample analysis
method was by electrolytic conductivity.  Data were taken continuously
and listed every hour.  Each instrument was automatically zeroed once a day.

                                  10

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                             RICH VALLEY


                             CENTERVILLE
                      HACKNEY #2
                 RT 76


        MUSKINGUM  PLANT


             STACK I
         O

      STACK 2
                                            N
             KILOMETERS


             12345
            j	i	i   i  	i
                            ^WJ
77,
BEVERLY
                            *l
Figure 3.  Sketch of the Muskingum Plant area showing locations of

           four automatic S02 monitoring stations
                               11

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The manufacturer's performance accuracy specifications for this instru-
ment are as follows.  In a typical ambient atmosphere which includes
the normal interfering gases, this instrument has:
    •   Zero drift         =  2 percent of full scale per week
    •   Sensitivity drift     < 1 percent of full sfiale per week
    •   Reproductibility      < 1 percent of full scale
    •   Sensitivity        =  0.01 ppm
    •   Recorder error        < 0.5 percent of full scale
    •   Range              =  approximately 0 to 1 ppm

Meteorological Data for Muskingum Plant

There were two wind monitoring stations at the Muskingum Plant consisting
of  Bendix-Friez Aerovane wind speed and direction devices.  One station
was located 24 meters above ground at Beverly, and the other at the
Hackney S0« monitoring station, where the wind monitors were also located
24  meters above ground.  The data from Hackney was used in this study, as
it  was higher and common to more stations, but Beverly data was used when
the Hackney system was not recording.  On-site hourly wind direction
data was used for the assignment of upwind receptor locations whose
concentrations were then used in a background subtration procedure iden-
tical  to the one described for the Canal plant.  Wind speeds at these
two meteorological  stations were converted to the 7 meter height by means
of  the stability dependent power law currently used in the Single Source
Model  and hourly stabilities based upon Huntington, West Virginia sur-
 face observations for 1973.  A hybrid Preprocessor output file was then
 constructed using local wind direction and corrected wind speed data in
 conjunction with ambient temperature and stability assignments from
Huntington.  Hourly mixing heights were based upon surface and upper air
data both collected at Huntington.
                                  12

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                              SECTION III
                      MODEL VALIDATION PROCEDURES

As was pointed out in Section II, local tneteoroligical data was used for
model input in the Canal and Muskingum validation studies.   Unfortunately
observations of ceiling height and percent cloud cover were not obtained
on site but had to be taken from observations made at stations over a
100 kilometers distant.  Wind speeds measured on site could not be used
in conjunction with off site ceiling height and percent cloud cover obser-
vations to calculate the atmospheric stability index since  the on site
wind speeds were measured on towers higher than the standard 7 meter
height used in the Pasquill-Turner stability assignment scheme.  The on
site wind speed was still used in the calculations of plume rise and plume
dilution after they were converted to stack top wind speeds by means of a
stability dependent power law profile.  On site wind directions were used
both for model calculations and background subtraction.  It should be
noted that hourly wind direction inputs to the model are only specified to
the nearest 10 degrees.  The model chooses the location of  the plume axis
within the 10 degree interval by means of a random number routine.  For
the Canal Plant validation, on site temperature measurements were used.

                                                        3
Since the Single Source Model was described in Volume II of this series,
we will deal briefly with those aspects of the model most pertinent to the
present model validation study.  The basis for the selection of wind speed
and mixing height intervals for the Canal and Muskingum plants was an anal-
ysis of the Meteorological Preprocessor Program output for  each of these
facilities.  Input to this program consists of wind speed (knots), wind
direction sector (1 to 36), temperature (°F), total cloud cover (tenths),
ceiling (hundreds of feet), and twice daily mixing heights  (meters).  The
                                 13

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output file contains hourly values of stability index, mixing height (meters);
temperature ( K), windspeed (meters/sec), flow vector (wind direction plus
180 degrees), and randomized flow vector.  The randomized flow vector is
equal to the flow vector minus 4 degrees plus a random number between 0 and
9 degrees.  The procedure for the determination of hourly "rural" mixing
heights from the twice daily mixing height measurements is decribed in
         3
Volume II  .  Hourly stabilities are specified according to the system
               4
given by Turner  employing Pasquill's classification scheme with the
addition of a stability class 7 (i.e., G) for which the assumption is
made that  the plume does not reach the ground.  Pasquill-Turner dispersion
curves  for stabilities A through F are used in the calculation of ground
level concentrations.  Plume rise is calculated on an hourly basis using
                    f\ 1 ft
the method of Briggs  '  '  .  If the plume rise calculation indicates that
the plume  axis will rise above the mixing layer, then a zero concentration
contribution is specified.  If the final plume height is below the top of
the mixing layer, the presence of the top of the layer is accounted for
by the introduction of image plumes  to satisfy the zero flux conditions
at ground  level and at the top of the mixing layer.  Source inputs to the
model include stack height, diameter, gas exit velocity and gas temperature.
Emission rates are input for each hour of the year.

The Meteorological Preprocessor Program output files for the Canal and
Muskingum  plants were analyzed to determine the frequency distributions of
hourly wind speeds and mixing heights at each location.  These distributions
were  then  divided into three equal parts with the 33-1/3 and 66-2/3 per-
centile values given  in Table 4a.  Each of the three wind speed and mixing
height classes represent one-third of the 8760 hours included in the simu-
lation.  The percentage breakdown of hours by stability class for each
plant is given in Table 4b.  Stability G was not included in the stratified
breakdown  of data.  The preprocessor output file was then reread for both
plants so  that hourly values of stability (1 to 6), wind speed class (1 to 3)
and mixing height class (1 to 3) could be calculated.  These values were
in turn used to generate subsets of measured and calculated concentration
files for  each of the stability, wind speed and mixing height classes.

                                  14

-------
Cumulative frequency distributions of measured and calculated concentra-
tions were then generated for each of the data subsets and plotted on a
log-probability scale.
     Table 4a.   PERCENTILE FOR WIND SPEED (ADJUSTED TO 7 METERS)
                AND MIXING HEIGHT STRATIFICATION
Plant
Percentile
Wind speed (m/sec)
Mixing height (m)
Canal
33 1/3
2.6
750
66 2/3
4.0
1250
Muskingum River
33 1/3
1.6
800
66 2/3
2.4
1200
     Table 4b.   PERCENT OCCURENCE OF DIFFERENT STABILITIES FOR
                CANAL AND MUSKINGUM
                                   Percent
Stability
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Canal
0.4
5.0
12.2
54.8
10.1
6.3
11.2
Muskingum
1.4
9.1
12.8
44.4
7.2
7.2
17.9
                               15

-------
                               SECTION IV
                        MODEL VALIDATION RESULTS

As an aid in the interpretation of the model validation results we should
point out some of the relationships among the three meteorological variables
used in our analysis-stability class, wind speed and mixing height.  Atmo-
spheric stability class, determined according to Turner's method,  is a
strong function of the wind speed as can be seen from Table 5 which gives
the stability class as a function of wind speed and net radiation index.
The net radiation index depends upon the solar elevation angle, cloud cover
and ceiling.  Although the stability class is a function of the wind speed
at 7 meters, the wind speed at the stack top is calculated by use of a
stability dependent power law.  The higher the stability class the greater
the increase in wind speed with height.  This stack top wind speed is used
in the calculation of plume dilution and plume rise.  The procedure for
determination of hourly mixing heights based upon maximum and minimum mixing
heights for the day is shown in Figure 4.  For neutral and unstable condi-
tions  (stabilities A-D), the hourly mixing height is based upon an inter-
polation between maximum daily mixing heights, while for other stabilities
the interpolation is carried out between minimum and maximum daily mixing
heights.

The model validation results are presented in detail in 30 series of figures
in Appendix A where cumulative frequency distributions of calculated and
measured concentration are compared.  The first set of comparisons for dif-
ferent stability, wind speed and mixing height classes are made with data
from all receptor locations combined.  This initial comparison provides a
rough picture of the effect of the three variables upon validation results.
It also increases the overall statistical significance of the results above
that of the detailed breakdown by receptor direction provided later.

                                  16

-------
        YESTERDAY
TODAY
TOMORROW
       URBAN
               MXDP-
                    j-j
X
0

LJ
X
                                              MXDPj

                                                                             MXDPj

                             MNDP

                                                            MNDPj+|
      RURAL
               MXDPj-i
X
o
UJ
X
                                                                     	    MXDPj+|
                                   SR
      14      SS
                                       TIME
                     Figure 4.  Determination of hourly mixing heights

-------
    Table 5.   STABILITY CLASS AS A FUNCTION OF NET RADIATION
              AND WIND SPEED
Wind speed,
knots
0,1
2,3
4,5
6
7
8,9
10
11
_>12
Net radiation index
4
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
1
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-1
6
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
-2
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
Model validation results at the Canal Plant (four stations combined) for
stabilities 1 through 6 are shown in Figures A-la through A-lf.  The most
striking feature of these comparisons is the strong tendency of the Single
Source Model to underpredict 1-hour concentrations for stabilities D
through F.  The same trend toward underprediction for the higher stabilities
was also found for the Muskingum Plant  (Figures A-2a through A-2f) but the
overprediction for stabilities A through C is enough to achieve an overall
agreement.  For the higher wind speed classes at the Canal plant the greater
degree of underprediction is probably due to the higher stabilities (see
Figures A-3a through A-3c).  At the Muskingum Plant, on the other hand,
there is a  tendency to overpredict for  higher wind speed which may indicate
a problem with the plume rise estimates at this facility but the evidence
is  far from conclusive  (see Figures A-4a through A-4c).  For the Canal
Plant there does not appear to be a definite pattern to the degree of
model underprediction and mixing height class (see Figures A-5a through
A-5c).  For mixing height class 3 the calculated and measured  concentration
                                  18

-------
distributions agree reasonably well.  This also was the case for stability
classes A through C.  An analysis of the model validation results for the
Muskingum Plant for different mixing height classes (Figures A-6a through
A-6c) reveals a strong underprediction for mixing height class 1.  This
result indicates that either the mixing height for this area is being
underestimated or that the assumption of complete plume penetration of
the top of the mixing layer is in error.

A more detailed picture of the model validation results for the strati-
fied concentration data may be obtained through an examination of
Figures A-7a through A-30d which give a receptor by receptor comparison
of measured and calculated concentration distributions for different
stabilities, wind speed classes and mixing height classes.  Rather than
discuss the results shown in each figure, we have instead presented our
findings in Table 6.  For each plant, receptor and meteorological para-
meter we have indicated whether the model overpredicted,  underpredicted
or agreed with the measured concentration distribution.  In this rather
qualitative classification of the model validation results, the compari-
son was made at the upper end of the frequency distribution (beyond the
99th percentile).  Based upon these results we may summarize our findings
as follows:
    •   The frequency distributions for both Canal and Muskingum
        plants show a tendency toward overprediction for stabili-
        ties A and B, especially for those receptors closest to
        the plant.
    •   At both the Canal and Muskingum plants there is a strong
        tendency for the model to underpredict for stabilities D,
        E and F.  For stability C, the model predictions agree
        relatively well with measured concentrations.
    •   The strong underprediction at Canal for stability D is
        even more serious in light of the fact that the measured
        concentrations, corrected for background, are the highest
        for this stability assignment.
    •   At the Canal Plant there is a greater tendency for model
        underprediction for higher wind speeds.  This result is
        consistent with the model underprediction for higher
                                19

-------
stabilities.  On the other hand the opposite trend is
observed for the Muskingum Plant, which may indicate
that either plume rise or terrain effects are not being
handled properly.

No general trend could be discerned from the comparison
of measured and calculated concentration frequency dis-
tributions by mixing height.  In the case of the Mus-
kingum Plant the agreement for the- second and third
mixing height classes was relatively good, while the
model definitely underpredicted concentrations for the
lowest group of mixing heights.  This could point to a
problem with the assumption regarding complete plume
penetration of the top of the mixing layer or an error
in the mixing height assignment itself.
                      20

-------
Table 6.  MODEL VALIDATION RESULTS FOR ALL PLANTS,  RECEPTORS  AND
          METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (0 = OVERPREDICTION,  U =
          UNDERPREDICTION, A = AGREEMENT, I = INCONCLUSIVE DUE TO
          INSUFFICIENT DATA)
Meteorological
variable
Stability














Wind speed








Mixing height








Class


A
B
C
D
E
F

A
B
C
D
E
F


1
2
3

1
2
3


1
2
3

1
2
3
Plant

Canal






Musk in gum







Canal



Muskingum




Canal



Muskingum



Receptor
1


I
U
A
U
U
U

0
A
U
U
U
U


U
U
U

U
A
A


U
U
U

U
A
A
2


I
U
A
U
U
U

0
0
A
U
U
U


U
U
U

U
0
0


U
U
U

U
0
0
3


0
A
U
U
U
U

A
A
A
U
U
U


0
0
U

U
A
A


U
U
0

U
A
A
4


I
I
U
U
U
U

U
A
A
A
U
U


U
U
U

A
A
A


U
U
U

U
A
A
All


0
A
A
U
U
U

0
0
A
U
U
U


A
U
U

U
A
0


U
U
A

U
A
A
                              21

-------
                              SECTION V
                    CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The most obvious conclusion of this study is that the dispersion curves and
stability assignment procedure currently used in the Single Source Model
leads to model overprediction for the unstable conditions and underpre-
diction for the more stable conditions.  This trend is most clearly shown
in the model validation results for the Muskingum Plant where the upper ends
of the calculated and measured concentration frequency distributions cross
one another for stability Class C (Figure A-2c).  For both Canal and
Muskingum plants, the model strongly underpredicts for stability D.  At the
Muskingum plant the measured concentration frequency distributions for
stabilities C and D are quite similar while the predicted distribution curve
for stability D falls considerably below that for stability C.  This effect
is even more pronounced for the Canal plant with the stability D concentra-
tion distribution actually rising above that for stability C.  The under-
prediction at the Muskinghum plant for stabilities E and F does not appear
to be a serious problem since the characteristics of the distributions for
these lower concentrations are greatly affected by uncertainties in the
background subtraction procedure.  At the Canal plant, however, the fre-
quency of stable conditions would appear to be much less than that deter-
mined through the Pasquill-Turner stability assignment procedure.  Based
upon these results we would recommend that C and D stabilities be combined
into a single class with Oy and az dispersion curves closer to that cur-
rently used for stability C.  At the same time the az values for stabilities
A and B should be reduced slightly to avoid model overprediction during un-
stable conditions.
                                 22

-------
The conclusions based upon the model validation results for different wind
speed classes must be more tentative.  The trend toward greater model
underprediction at Canal for higher wind speeds is probably directly re-
lated to a similar trend toward underprediction for the high stabilities.
The overprediction at Muskingum for the higher wind speeds is more difficult
to understand since the trend toward underprediction for higher stabilities
was also present for this plant.  A possible explanation is that during
light winds the zero level displacement assumption used in the model is
valid but for higher winds this assumption breaks down.  The only definite
conclusion which was reached based upon the model validation for different
mixing height classes was that the underprediction at Muskingum for the
lowest mixing height class was due either to an underestimate in the hourly
mixing height or a breakdown in the assumption of complete plume pene-
tration of the top of the mixing layer.
                                23

-------
                               SECTION VI

                               REFERENCES
1.  Mills, M. T. and F. A. Record.  Comprehensive Analysis of Time Con-
    centration Relationships and the Validation of a Single Source Dis-
    persion Model.  Publication Number EPA-450/3-75-083.   Prepared by
    GCA/Technology Division for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
    Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.  March 1975.

2.  Mills, M. T. and R. W. Stern.  Model Validation and Time-Concentration
    Analysis of Three Power Plants.  Publication Number EPA-450/3-76-002.
    Prepared by GCA/Technology Division for the U.S. Environmental Protec-
    tion Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.   December 1975.

3.  Mills, M. T., R. W. Stern and L. M. Vincent.  Improvement to the Single
    Source Model.  Volume II - Testing and Evaluation of Model Improve-
    ments.  Final Report.  EPA Contract No. 68-02-1376, Task Order No. 23.
    Prepared by GCA/Technology Division for the U.S. Environmental Protec-
    tion Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.   January 1977.

4.  Turner, D. B.  A Diffusion Model for an Urban Area.  J Appl Meteor
    3:83-91.  February 1969.

5.  Turner, D. B.  Workbook of Atmospheric Dispersion Estimates.  U.S.
    Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Programs.   Publication
    Number AP-26.

6.  Briggs, G. A.  Plume Rise USAEC Critical Review Series TID-25075,
    National Technical Information Service, Springfield,  Va.   22151.   1969.

7.  Briggs, G. A.  Some Recent Analyses of Plume Rise Observation,
    pp. 1029-1032, in Proceedings of the Second International Clean Air
    Congress, edited by H. M. Englund and W. T. Berry.   Academic Press,
    New York.  1971.

8.  Briggs, G. A. Discussion on Chimney Plumes in Neutral and Stable
    Surroundings.  Atmos.  Environ. 6_, 507-510.  July 1972.
                                 24

-------
            APPENDIX A




CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS
             25

-------
CO
   cn-
   oo-

   UD-
   LO-
   on-
   CM-
                    PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
                    GREflTER THflN  INDICRTED  VflLUE
     89.89 98.8  88.5 88 89   80  80   60 70 BO SO 40 30 20  10 5
        4—h—i	1—|	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	H-H	1	1	H
                                                         2  1  .5  .2 .1   .01°cb
CE "
OC m-1
UJ
CJ co-
Z
ED
O r
   -~
   O
                                                         H—I—I	1—h
          CflNflL STRB 1
          CUMULflTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
          FOR 1 HOUR 302  CONCENTRflTIONS
          flT STRTION flLL
           0CflLCULflTED
           AMERSURED MINUS  BACKGROUND
                    -j-
                           -i-
-+-
H—H	1	1	H
     .01 .06 .1.2  .81
                    2   5   10   20  90 40 90 60 70  00   80
                    PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
                    LESS  THflN INDICflTED  VflLUE
                                         ^-CO
1—I—t—I—I-
                                          -O)
                                          -00

                                          -(O
                                          uin
                                                                            N
                                                                            O
                                                                         -
-------
                    PERCENTAGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
                    GREATER THRN INOICRTED VflLUE
  t>M.9900.9  90.8999ft   98  90  80 700090  40 30 20  10  5
   cn-
   QD-
   1/7-
   (0-
   00-
CE «>-
CC. m-
LU
CJ tn-l
U ru-
             I	1—I
             H
H	1	1	1	1	1
CANRL  STRB 2
CUMULRTJVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FOR  1  HOUR 302 CONCENTRATIONS
RT STflTION ALL
 ^CALCULATED
 ^MEASURED MINUS  BACKGROUND
         I  I  )	I-H
             H	1-
H	1	1	1	1	1
     .01 .06 .1.2 .5 1  2   5  10  20 30 40 SO 80 70 80  80
                    PERCENTAGE OF CONCENTRATIONS
                    LESS THAN  INDICATED  VALUE
                                              98 88 88.5 88.8  88.88
Figure A-lb.
                       Cumulative frequency distributions  of  calculated
                       concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
                       rected for background at the Canal  Plant for all
                       receptors for stability B
                                     27

-------
               PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
               GRERTER THflN INDICflTEO VflLUE
99.99 94.9  99.5 99 96   95  90  60 70 60 50  40 30 20   10  5
    I  I  I	»—I	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
                                                        2 1  .5 .2.1  .01
   in-
   CO-
   OD-
CC   -
LU
CJ m-\
O
   CM-
  •fa
     CflNflL  STRB 3
     CUMULflTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
     FOR  I  HOUR S02 CONCENTRflTIONS
     RT STflTION flLL
       ©CflLCULflTED
       AMEflSURED MINUS  BRCKGROUND
          HhH	1—I	1-
                          -i	1-
1
.01 .06 .1.2  .6 1
                    2   5  10  20 30 40 50 60 70  60   90
                    PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    LESS THflN  INDICflTED  VflLUE
               96 99 99.5 96.9  99.99
          Figure A-lc.
                   Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
                   concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
                   rected for background at  the Canal Plant  for all
                   receptors for stability C
                                     28

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GRERTER  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
     »»• a» w.a  aa. s aa as  as ao  eo ?o BO so  40 90  20   10  s
   00-
   in-
   (M-
2
CE
oc
t—
Z
LU
U

   (M-
<  I  I
                    h
H
•4	1—(—I—I—I
 CRNRL STRB 4
 CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
 FOR 1 HOUR 302 CONCENTRRTIONS
 RT STRTION RLL
  ©CRLCULRTED
  AMERSURED MINUS BRCKGROUNO
        -i—f-H	h
              -f-
     .01 .06 .1.2 .61
          1	1	1—I—>-
           2   5   10  20 90 40 50 SO 70  80   80
           PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
           LESS THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
                                 88 88 88.5  88.8 88.88
          Figure A-Id.
              Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
              rected for  background at the Canal Plant for all
              receptors for stability D
                                    29

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GRERTER THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
     99.99 99.9  99.59998   95  90   80 70 80 90  40 SO 20  10  5
CO
   oo-
   Cs—
   (0-
   in-
   co-
   
-------
   cn-
   
-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GRERTER THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
  °t)98.99 99.9  88.5 99 96   95  90   60 70 60 50  40 30 20  10  5
CD
CE
o
   OD-
   C —
   CO-
   in-
   CQ-
   (M-
   co-
   00-
LU
C-)  CO-
    f\J-
   O
         I  I  I—I—I—h
                        1	1	1	1	1
MUSK  STRB 1
CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FOR  1  HOUR S02  CONCENTRflTIONS
RT STRTION RLL
  OCRLCULRTED
  AMERSURED MINUS  BRCKGROUND
         I  I  I
        H	1-
H	1-
                                                               O
     .01 .05 .1.2  .5 1
          2   5  10   20  30 40 50 80 70  80   90
          PERCENTRGE  OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
          LESS THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
                 95   96 99 99.5  99.8 99,99
          Figure A-2a.
              Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations  cor-
              rected  for background at  the Muskingum Plant  for
              all  receptors for stability A
                                     32

-------
               PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
               GREflTER  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
  ,99 99.9  99.5 99 96   95  90  80 70 60 50  40 30  20   10
    H—I—t	1—h—I	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	f-
     MUSK STflB  2
     CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY  DISTRIBUTION
     FOR 1 HOUR 502 CONCENTRflTIONS
     RT STflTION FILL
        CRLCULRTED
       AMEflSURED MINUS BRCKGROUND
.01 .05 .1.2 .51
2   5   10  20 30 40 50 80 70  60   90
PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
LESS  THflN INDICflTED  VflLUE
96 99 99.5  99.9 89. 99
      Figure A-2b.
     Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
     concentrations  and measured concentrations cor-
     rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
     all receptors  for stability B
                                 33

-------
      . 88
   cn-
   oo-
   CN--
   CO-
CO
   or>-
   OJ-
CL  to-
LU
    co-
    CM-
   o
           PERCENTRGE  OF CONCENTRflTIONS

           GREflTER  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE

 99.9 99.5 99 98  95 90  80 70 60 50  40 30  20  10  5

^—I—I	1—I	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	h
                        21.5.2.1

                       H - 1 — I - I-H
MUSK  STRB 3
CUMULflTIVE FREQUENCY  DISTRIBUTION
FOR  1  HOUR 302  CONCENTRflTIONS
flT-STRTION RLL
  OCRLCULRTED
  AMERSURED MINUS BRCKGROUND
         4-
                 4-
H	1	h
                                                             .01
     .01 .OS .1.2  .51
           2   5  10  20 30 40 50 60 70 60  90

           PERCENTRGE  OF CONCENTRRTIONS
           LESS THRN  INDICflTED VRLUE
                                       -cn
                                       -oo
                                       -r»*
                                       -co
                                       -in
                                       -co
                                                                         -CM
                                                                •cn
                                                                -co

                                                                •to
                                                                •LD
                                       ^CO
                                                               K-C\J
                                                                   on;
                                                                   \
                                                                   d
                                                                   H
                                                                   Z
                                                                   LL
                                                                   O
                                                                   Z
                                                                   O.
                    95   96 99 99.5
                                                           ). 9  99. 99
          Figure A-2c.
              Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
              rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
              all receptors for stability C

-------
   OT-
   oo-J
   t^-
   (£>-
   LD-
   ^j»-

   ro-


   oj-
C!)
  "b
O
   in-
UJ
o
u
   oo-
  O
                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GRERTER  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
      ,99 99.8  98.5 99 96  95 90  60 70 80 50  40 30  20   10  5
      	f—fH	1—\	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1—
MUSK  STRB 4
CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FOR 1  HOUR S02  CONCENTRRTIONS
RT STRTION RLL
 OCRLCULRTED
 AMERSURED MINUS  BRCKGROUND
         i  i
H—I	h
     i 01 .05 . 1.2  .51
                    H	1	1
          2   5   10  20 30 40 50 60 70 80  90
          PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
          LESS  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
                                                                         O
                                         96 98 99.5 99.9  99.99
           Figure A-2d.
              Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
              rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
              all receptors for stability D
                                      35

-------
     89-
   00-
   r^-
   (JD-
   LO-
   or>-
CO
2 «

CE  CM-l

  ^H
   o
                    PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GRERTER  THRN INDICRTED VflLUE
       99 98.9  99.5 99 96   95  90  80 70 80 50  40 30 20  10  5
       	1—hH	1—I	>	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	*
                                            2 1  .5  .2.1
                                            H	1—I	1—f—
          MUSK STRB  5
          CUMULflTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
          FOR 1 HOUR 302 CONCENTRflTIONS
          RT SIRTION RLL
           0CRLCULRTED
           AMERSURED MINUS BRCKGROUND
H	1—H
                               H
                                      -I	f-
     .01 .05 .1.2  .51
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                        Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
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                                      36

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                                    39

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                                     42

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                                     58

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           Figure A-9b.
               Cumulative frequency  distributions  of  calculated
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                                    59

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                                     60

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                               61

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                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
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RT STRTION    I
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                                     62

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                                   63

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                                    67

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99 99.9  89.5 99 98   85  90  60 70 80 50  40 30  20   10  5
	hH—I	1—I	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	H
2  1  .5  .2.1
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MUSK STflB 1
CUMULflTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FOR 1  HOUR S02 CONCENTRflTIONS
RT STRTION    4
 0CRLCULRTED
 AMERSURED MINUS BftCKGRQUND
                                                            .01°^)
    .01 .05 .1.2  .51
          2   5   10  20 30 40 50 60 70  80   90
          PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
          LESS  THRN INDICRTED  VflLUE
                                             95  98 99 99.5  99.9  99.99
          Figure A-13d
               Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
               concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
               rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
               receptor 4 for stability A
                                    77

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             PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
             GRERTER THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
88 88.8  88.5 88 88   95  80   80 70 BO 50  40 30 20  10  5
	1—I—I	1—-I	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	h
   MUSK  STRB 2
   CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
   FOR  1  HOUR S02  CONCENTRRTIONS
   RT STflTION     1
     0CRLCULRTED
     AMERSURED MINUS  BRCKGROUND
         H—I—I	1—I	h
                    -f-
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      01 .05 . 1.2  .51
             2   5  10   20  30 40 50 80 70  60  90
             PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
             LESS THRN  INDICRTED VRLUE
I—h
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                       88 88 88.5  88.9 99.88
         Figure A-14a
                 Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
                 concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
                 rected for background at  the Muskingum Plant for
                 receptor 1 for stability  B
                                    78

-------
              PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
              GREflTER THRN  INDICRTED VflLUE
9.99 89.9  99.5 99 98   95  90  80 70 80 50  40 30 20  10  5
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        I  I  I—I—h
     .01 .05 .1.2  .51
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                                                                      01
              2   5   10  20 30 40 50 80 70 80  90
              PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
              LESS  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
                                                                   O
                       98 99 99.5  99.9  99.99
         Figure A-14b.
                  Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
                  concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
                  rected for  background at the Muskingum Plant for
                  receptor 2  for stability B
                                    79

-------
               PERCENTflGE OF C0NCENTRRTIONS
               GRERTER  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
98. 89 99. 8  98.59990   85  90  60 708050  4030  20   10
     MUSK STRB  2
     CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
     FOR 1  HOUR S02 CONCENTRRTIONS
     RT STRTION    3
       0CRLCULRTED
       AMERSURED MINUS BRCKGROUND
 .01 .05 . 1.2  .51
2   5   10  20 30 40 50 60 70  80   90
PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
LESS  THRN INOICRTEO  VRLUE
98 89 99.5  99.9 99.98
     Figure A-14c.
    Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
    concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
    rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
    receptor 3 for stability B
                               80

-------
                 PERCENTRGE  OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                 GREflTER  THRN INDICRTED VflLUE
  99.99 99.9  99.5 98 86  95 90  60 70 SO 50 40 30  20   10 5
                                               2  1  .5 .2 .1
oo-
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FOR  1  HOUR 302  CONCENTRflTIONS
flT STRTION    4
  OCRLCULRTED
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H	1-
                                               H	1
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  .01 .05 . 1.2  .51
          2    5   10  20 30 40 50 80 70 80  90
          PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
          LESS  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
88 98 98.5  98.9  99.89
    Figure A-14d.
            Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
            concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
            rected for  background at the Muskingum Plant for
            receptor  4  for stability B
                               31

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GREflTER THflN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
     98.99 99.9  99.5 99 98   85  90  BO 70 BO 50  40 30 20  10  5
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RT STRTION     1
  0CRLCULRTED
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         H—I
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     .01 .05 .1.2  .5 1
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          PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
          LESS THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
                                                                         o
                                  98 99 89.5 99.8  99.99
         Figure A-15a.
              Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
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              receptor 1 for stability C
                                    82

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   RT STRTION    2
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 H—J—»	1—t-
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             PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
             LESS  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
98 89 99.6  89.9  89.88
          Figure A-15b.
                  Cumulative frequency distributions  of calculated
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                  receptor 2 for stability C
                                     33

-------
               PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
               GRERTER  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
98.99 99.9  09.5 99 96   95  90  80 70 80 SO
                                   1  .5  .2.1
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     CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
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     RT STRTIQN    3
      
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                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GRERTER  THRN INDICflTED VflLUE
     98.89 88.8  99.5 98 98  95 90  80 70 80 50  40 30  20  10  5
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               LESS  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
                                                        98 99 98.5 98.9  99.99
          Figure A-15d
                    Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
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          Figure A-16a.
              Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
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-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
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         Figure  A-16b.
             Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
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             receptor 2 for stability D
                                   87

-------
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 .99 99.9  99.5 99 96  95 90  90  70 BO 50 40 SO 20  10  5
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2   5   10  20 30 40 50 60 70  00   90
PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
LESS  THRN INDICflTED  VRLUE
98 99 99.5  99.9 99.99
    Figure A-16c.
    Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
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    rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
    receptor 3 for stability D
                              88

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GRERTER  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
     99.99 99.9  99.5 99 96   95  90  00 70 60 50  40 30  20   10  5
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               PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIQNS
               LESS  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
                                                        98 88 98.5 99.9  98.99
        Figure A-16d.  Cumulative frequency distributions of  calculated
                      concentrations  and measured concentrations cor-
                      rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
                      receptor A for  stability D
                                   89

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
                    GRERTER THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
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          Figure A-17a.
              Cumulative frequency distributions  of calculated
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                                    90

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                                                  86 88 89.5  88.9 88.98
    Figure A-17c.
                    Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
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                              92

-------
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        Figure A-17d.
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                                   93

-------
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        Figure A-18a.
    Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
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                                    94

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               PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRRTIGNS
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Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
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                                95

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       Figure A-18c.
              Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
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                                  96

-------
                    PERCENTAGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
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          flT STRTIQN    4
           QCflLCULflTED
           AMEflSURED MINUS BflCKGROUND
            H	1—h
                                 H	1	1-
     .01 .06 .1.2 .5 1  2   5  10  20  30 40 50 80 70  80   90
                    PEPCENTRGE  OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    LESS THRN  INDICRTED  VflLUE
                                                        99 99 99.5 99.9  89.99
         Figure A-18d.
                       Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
                       concentrations and measured  concentrations cor-
                       rected for  background at the Muskingum Plant for
                       receptor  4  for stability F
                                   97

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                          2 1 .5 .2.1  .01
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   CUMULflTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
   FOR 1 HOUR S02  CONCENTRflTIONS
   RT STRTION     1
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             PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
             LESS THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
                          88 88 98.5  88.9 98.88
         Figure A-19a.
                 Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
                 concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
                 rected for background at the Canal Plant  for
                 receptor 1 for wind speed class 1 (0 to 2.6 m/sec)
                                    98

-------
                    PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    GRERTER  THRN INDICflTED VflLUE
     09.89 99.9  98.5 99 90  95 90  60 70 60 50  40 30  20   10  5
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          FOR 1 HOUR  302 CONCENTRflTIONS
          RT STflTION     2
           OCRLCULRTED
           AMERSURED MINUS BRCKGROUND
      III  I—I
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                    LESS THRN  INDICRTED  VflLUE
99 99.5  98.8 98.98
      Figure A-19b,
                       Cumulative frequency distributions  of  calculated
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                       receptor 2 for  wind speed class 1 (0 to 2.6 m/sec)
                                 99

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   CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY  DISTRIBUTION

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   RT STflTION     3

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     AMEflSURED MINUS BflCKGROUND
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     .01 .05 . 1.2  .61
              2   5  10  20  30 40 50 60 70  60   80

              PERCENTflGE  OF CONCENTRRTIONS

              LESS THflN  INDICflTED  VRLUE
86 88 88.5  88.8 88.88
         Figure A-19c.
                 Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated

                 concentrations and measured concentrations cor-

                 rected for background at  the-Canal Plant  for

                 receptor 3 for wind speed class 1 (0 to 2.6 m/sec)
                                    100

-------
              PERCENTRGE  OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
              GREflTER THflN  INDICRTEO  VflLUE
.98 99.8 99.59988  95  90   80  706050 4030 20  10  5
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Figure A-19d. Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
rected for background
at the Canal Plant for

receptor 4 for wind speed class 1 (0 to 2.6 m/sec)
                            101

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    GRERTER  THRN  INDICRTED VRLUE
  "£399.99 99.9  99.5 99 96   95  90  60 70 BO 50  40 30  20   10  5
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RT STRTION     1
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                    LESS  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
                                           95
                  	1—
       98 99 99.5  99.9 99.99
         Figure A-20a.
              Cumulative frequency  distributions of  calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
              rected for background at the Canal Plant for
              receptor 1 for wind speed class 2 (2.6  to 4.0 m/sec)
                                   102

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             GRERTER THRN  INDICflTED  VflLUE
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   CRNRL  MIND 2
   CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
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   RT STRTION    2
    0CRLCULRTED
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                                                                  o
98 99 99.5  99.9 99.99
         Figure A-20b.
                Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
                concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
                rected for  background at the Canal Plant for
                receptor 2  for wind speed class  2  (2.6 to 4.0 m/sec)
                                   103

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GREflTER  THRN  INOICRTED VRLUE
     99.99 98.9  89.59988   95  90  80 706050  4030 20  10  5
         I  I  \	h—1—K
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HT STRTION    3
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  AMERSURED MINUS  BRCKGROUND
         I  i  I—I—i—h
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     .01 .05 .1.2  .51
          2   5  10   20  30 40 50 60 70  60   80
          PERCENTRGE  OF CONCENTRRTIONS
          LESS THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
                  98 89 99.5  98.9 99.98
         Figure A-20c.
             Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
             concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
             rected for  background at the Canal Plant for
             receptor 3  for wind speed class  2 (2.6 to 4.0 m/sec)
                                   104

-------
                PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                GRERTER  THRN INDICRTED  VflLUE
88. 99 W. 8 99.58990  95 90  60 708050  4030 20  10 5
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RT STRTION 4
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LESS  THRN  INDICRTED  VflLUE
85   96 89 98.5  98.8  98.99
     Figure A-20d.
    Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
    concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
    rected  for  background at the Canal Plant for
    receptor  4  for wind speed class 2 (2.6 to 4.0  m/sec)
                                105

-------
                    PERCENTAGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    GREflTER  THflN  INDICATED  VflLUE
  "2388.89 98.9  99.5 89 90  95  90  90 70 60 50  40 90 20  10  5
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                    PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
                    LESS  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
                                                                         O
                                  86 99 89.5  88.9  88.88
          Figure A-21a.
                        Cumulative frequency distributions of  calculated
                        concentrations  and measured concentrations cor-
                        rected for background at the Canal Plant  for
                        receptor 1 for  wind speed class 3 (4.0 m/sec •>)
                                     106

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CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FOR 1  HOUR 302 CONCENTRRTIONS
RT STRTION    2
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         I  I  I	1—h
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          PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
          LESS  THRN INDICflTED  VflLUE
                                                 06 00 00.5 00.0  00.00
         Figure A-21b.
              Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations  cor-
              rected  for background at  the Canal Plant for
              receptor 2 for wind speed class 3 (4.0 m/sec ->)
                                   107

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    GRERTER  THflN INDICRTED VflLUE
     S8.99 99.9  99.5 99 99  95 90  80 70 60 SO  40 90  20   10  5
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CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
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RT STRTION    3
  OCRLCULRTED
  AMERSURED MINUS  BRCKGROUND
         I  t  I—i—i—h
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          PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
          LESS THflN INOICflTED  VflLUE
                    98 99 99.5 99.9  99.99
          Figure A-21c.
              Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
              rected for  background at the Canal Plant for
              receptor 3  for wind speed class  3 (4.0 m/sec -»•)
                                   108

-------
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               LESS THRN  INDICATED  VflLUE
                                                   21.5.2.1   .01 °O
                                                           88 88.5 88.8  98.89
         Figure A-22a.
                  Cumulative frequency  distributions of calcualted
                  concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
                  rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
                  receptor 1 for wind speed class 1 (0 to 1.6 m/sec)
                                    110

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GREflTER THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
     88. 88 89.8  88.0 88 80   86  80  00 70 00 SO  40 90  20   105
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CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FOR I  HOUR S02 CONCENTRRTIONS
RT STRTION    2
 gCRLCULRTED
 AMERSURED MINUS BRCKGROUNO
         I  1  I	I-H—h
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                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    LESS THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
         Figure A-22b.
              Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
              rected  for background at  the Musklngum Plant  for
              receptor 2 for wind speed class 1 (0 to 1.6 m/sec)
                                    111

-------
                  PERCENTflGE  OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                  GREflTER  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
t>88.98 89.8 88.6 88 88  85 80  80  70 80 60 40 90  20  10 6
        MUSK MIND  1
        CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
        FOR 1 HOUR S02 CONCENTRRTIONS
        flT  STflTION     3
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   .01 .06 .1.2 .6 1
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PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
LESS  THflN INDICflTED YflLUE
88 88 88.6  88.8 88.88
      Figure A-22c.
   Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
   concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
   rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
   receptor 3 for wind speed class  1  (0 to 1.6 m/sec)
                                 112

-------
               PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
               GRERTER  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
99.99 99.9  09.8 99 90   95  90  90 70 60 SO  40 90 20  10  8
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RT STRTION    4
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                                                         2  1  .8 .2 .1  .01
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          2    6   10  20 90 40 60 80 70 00  90
          PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRRT10NS
          LESS  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
                                               95  90 99 99.6 99.9  99.99
          Figure A-22d.
              Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
              rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
              receptor 4 for wind speed class  1  (0 to 1.6 m/sec)
                                    113

-------
                  PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                  GREflTER  THflN INDICRTED VflLUE
^388.8888.8  88.58886  85  00  60 706050  4090 20   10  5
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     FIT STflTION    1
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2   5   10  20 30 40 50 60 70 60  80
PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
LESS  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
                                                        88 88 88.6 88.8  88.80
         Figure A-23a.
                   Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
                   concentrations and measured  concentrations cor-
                   rected  for background at the Muskingum Plant for
                   receptor 1 for wind speed class 2 (1.6 to 2.4 m/sec)
                                   114

-------
                    PERCENTAGE OF  CONCENTRATIONS
                    GRERTER THflN  INDICflTED  VflLUE
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 RT STRTION    2
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     .01 .05 .1.2 .51  2
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                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    LESS  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
          Figure  A-23b.
               Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
               concentrations  and measured concentrations cor-
               rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
               receptor 2 for  wind speed class 2 (1.6 to 2.4 m/sec)
                                     115

-------
                  PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
                  GRERTER THflN  INOICRTED  VflLUE
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                  LESS  THRN INDICRTED  VflLUE
                   85   88 88 88.5  88.8 88.88
         Figure A-23c.
                    Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
                    concentrations and measured concentrations  cor-
                    rected for background at  the Muskingum Plant for
                    receptor 3 for wind speed class 2 (1.6 to 2.4 m/sec)
                                    116

-------
                    PERCENTAGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GRERTER  THRU INDICflTED VRLUE
     88, 8888. i  08.68896   85 80  60 706050  4030  20   10  5
   cn
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CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
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flT STRTION    4
 GjCRLCULRTED
 AMERSURED MINUS BRCKGROUNO
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     .01 .05 ,1,2 .5 1  2    5   10  20 90 iO 50 60 70  60   80
                    PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    LESS THRN  INDICflTED  VfllUE
                                           95  86 88 88.5 88.8  88.88
         Figure A-23d.
             Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
             concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
             rected for  background at the Muskingum Plant for
             receptor 4  for wind speed class 2 (1.6 to 2.4 m/sec)
                                    117

-------
                 PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS

                 GREflTER  THflN INDICRTEO VflLUE

  99.99 88.8  88.5 88 88  85 80  BO 70 BO 50  40 90  20   10  5
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      Figure A-24a.
                       Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated

                       concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
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                       receptor 1 for wind speed class 3 (2.4 m/sec ->)
                                 118

-------
                    PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
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          LESS  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
                          88 88 88.6  88.8  88.88
          Figure A-24b.
              Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
              rected for  background at the Muskingum Plant for
              receptor 2  for wind speed class  3 (2.4 m/sec ->•)
                                    119

-------
                   PERCENTAGE OF CONCENTRATIONS
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 QCALCULATED
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    .01 .06 .1.2  .5 1  2   5   10  20 90 40 SO 80 70 80  90
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       Figure A-24c.
             Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
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             rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
             receptor 3 for wind speed class 3 (2.4 m/sec •»•)
                                  120

-------
                    PERCENTflGE Oh  CONCENTRflTIONS
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        Figure A-25a.
                        Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
                        concentrations and measured  concentrations cor-
                        rected for background at the Canal Plant for
                        receptor 1 for mixing height class 1 (0 to 750 m)
                                    122

-------
                    PERCENTflGE  OF CONCENTRflTIONS
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RT STRTION    3
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PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
LESS  THRN INOICRTEO VflLUE
                                               88 88 88.5 88.8  88.88
        Figure A-25c.
             Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
             concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
             rected for  background at the Canal Plant for
             receptor  3  for mixing height class 1 (0 to 750 m)
                                    124

-------
                  PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                  GREflTER  THflN INDICflTEO VflLUE
t>88.89 W.8  88-5 88 80  85 80  80 70 00 SO  40 30  20   10  S
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 RT STRTION    4
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           PERCENTRGE  OF CONCENTRflTIONS
           LESS THRN  INDICflTEO  VflLUE
                                                      88 88 88. S 88.8  88.88
        Figure A-25d.   Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
                       concentrations and measured  concentrations cor-
                       rected for background at  the Canal Plant for
                       receptor 4 for mixing height class 1 (0 to 750  m)
                                   125

-------
                    PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    GREflTER  THflN INDICflTEO VflLUE
     88.88 88.8  88.5 88 86  85 80  90 70 00 SO  40 90  20   10  6
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flT STflTION    1
 ©CflLCULflTED
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                    LESS THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
                                           85  86 88 88.6  88.8 88.88
           Figure 26a.
             Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
             concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
             rected for background at the Canal Plant  for
             receptor 1 for mixing height class 2 (750 to 1250 m)
                                   126

-------
                    PERCENTflCE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
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 RT STRTION    2
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               LESS  THflN INDICflTEO VflLUE
                                                                 O
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          Figure A-26b
                Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
                concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
                rected  for background at the Canal Plant for
                receptor JZ for mixing height class 2 (750 to 1250 m)
                                     127

-------
                    PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRATIONS
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LESS  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
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        Figure A-26c.
                      Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
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                      rected for background at the Canal Plant  for
                      receptor 3 for  mixing height class 2 (750 to 1250 m)
                                   128

-------
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     Figure A-26d.
Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
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rected for  background at the Canal Plant  for
receptor 4  for mixing height class 2  (750 to 1250 m)
                                129

-------
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                                    130

-------
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         Figure A-27b.
                   Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
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                   rected for  background at the Canal Plant for
                   receptor  2  for mixing height class 3 (1250 m -»)
                                    131

-------
                  PERCENTRGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
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        Figure A-27c.
            Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
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                                  132

-------
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       Figure A-27d
                        Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
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                        receptor 4 for mixing height class 3 (1250  m -^
                                  133

-------
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         Figure A-28a.
             Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
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             rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
             receptor 1 for mixing height class 1 (0 to 800  m)
                                    134

-------
                PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRRTIONS
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oCflLCULRTEO
AMERSURED MINUS BRCKGROUND





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.01 .05 .1.2  .51  2   5  10  20  90 40 50 80 70 BO  80  85  8d 88 88.5 88.8  88.88
               PERCENTflGE  OF CONCENTRRTIONS
               LESS THflN  INDICRTED VflLUE
   Figure A-28b.
Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
concentrations  and measured concentrations cor-
rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
receptor 2 for  mixing height class 1 (0 to 800 m)
                              135

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                  PERCENTAGE  OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                  GRERTER THflN INOICflTEO  VflLUE
^388.8888.8 88.58886  85 80  00  700050 4090 20  10 5
       HUSK HIXM 1
       CUHULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
       FOR 1 HOUR S02 CONCENTRflTIONS
       RT STflTION     3
         gCALCULRTED
         AMEflSURED MINUS BACKGROUND
   .01.05.1,2  .512   8  10   20  9040500070 00  80
                  PERCENTAGE OF  CONCENTRflTIONS
                  LESS THflN INDICATED VflLUE
                                80 88 88.5 88.8  88.88
       Figure A-28c.
Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
concentrations and measured concentrations  cor-
rected  for background at  the Muskingum Plant  for
receptor  3 for mixing height class 1 (0 to  800 m)
                                  136

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                    PERCENTAGE OF CONCENTRATIONS
                    GREATER THAN INDICATED VALUE
      . 8i S8.8  88.5 88 08   85  80  60 70 00 80  40 90  20  10  5
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     HUSK MIXH 1
     CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
     FOR I  HOUR S02 CONCENTRATIONS
     AT STATION    4
      0CALCULATED
      ^MEASURED HINUS BACKGROUND
    I  I  I	1—H	1	1-
                              •+-H—i
                                                                 .01
.01 .05 .1.2 .5 1  2   &   10  20 90 40 60 00 70 00  80
               PERCENTAGE OF  CONCENTRATIONS
               LESS  THAN INDICATED VALUE
                                                         90 88 88.5  98.8  88.88
         Figure  A-28d.
                  Cumulative frequency distributions  of  calculated
                  concentrations  and measured concentrations cor-
                  rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
                  receptor 4 for  mixing height class  1  (0 to 800 m)
                                    137

-------
                    PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    GREflTER  THflN  INDICflTEO VflLUE
     86.88 88.8  08.58986  85 80  80 706050  4030 20  10  5
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 I  I  I	I-H	
HUSK HIXH 2
CUMULRTIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FOR 1  HOUR S02  CONCENTRflTIONS
RT STRTION     I
  OCRLCULRTED
  AHERSUREO MINUS  BRCKGROUNO
                              H—I—h
                                  I	h
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     .01.05.1.2 .512   5   10  20 9040506070 60  80  85   888886.5  88.8 88.88
                    PERCENTflGE OF CONCENTRflTIONS
                    LESS  THflN INDICflTED VflLUE
        Figure A-29a.
             Cumulative frequency  distributions of calculated
             concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
             rected for background at  the Muskingum Plant  for
             receptor 1 for mixing height class 2 (800 to  1200 m)
                                   138

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0)-
00-
               PERCENTAGE OF  CONCENTRATIONS
               GREATER THAN  INDICATED VALUE
89.88 98.8  88.5 88 89   86  80   80 70 90 50 40 90  20  10 5
                          -I	111!	1	1	
                                                      2 1  .5  .2.1   .01
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                  PERCENTAGE  OF CONCENTRATIONS
                  GREATER  THAN INDICATED VALUE
•£388.8888.8  88.88880  86 80  80 70 60 SO 4090  20  10 S
        HUSK HIXH 2
        CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY  DISTRIBUTION
        FOR I HOUR 502 CONCENTRATIONS
        flT  STATION     3
         ^CALCULATED
         A.MEASURED MINUS BACKGROUND
   .01 .05 ,1.2 .5 1  2   8  10  20  90 40 SO 60 70  80   80
                  PERCENTAGE  OF CONCENTRATIONS
                  LESS THAN  INDICATED  VALUE
                                 86 88 88.5 88.8  88.88
       Figure A-29c.
Cumulative frequency distributions of calculated
concentrations and measured concentrations  cor-
rected  for background at  the Muskingum Plant  for
receptor  3 for mixing height class 2 (800 to  1200 m)
                                 140

-------
                    PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
                    GRERTER THRN  INDICRTED  VRLUE
     88.8886.8  88.58886   85  80   80 70 60 60 40 SO 20  10 5   2 1  .5  .2.1   .01
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          CUMULflTlVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
          FOR 1 HOUR S02 CONCENTRflTIONS
          RT STRTION    4
           0CRLCULRTED
           AMERSUREO MINUS  BRCKGROUNO
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     .01.05.1.2 .512   5   10  20 3040506070  60  80  85  668888.5 88.8  88.88
                    PERCENTRGE OF  CONCENTRRTIONS
                    LESS  THRN INDICRTED VRLUE
         Figure A-29d.  Cumulative frequency distributions  of calculated
                        concentrations and measured concentrations cor-
                        .rected  for background at the Muskingum Plant for
                        receptor 4 for mixing height class  2 (800 to 1200 m)
                                    141

-------
                    PERCENTflGE OF  CONCENTRATIONS
                    GREATER THAN  INDICATED  VALUE
     88.88 88.8  88.58888   8B  80  80 708080 4090 20  10 5
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                                   142

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           PERCENTAGE OF CONCENTRATIONS
           GREATER THAN INDICATED VALUE
88.8  88.5 88 88  85 80  80 70 80 60  40 30  20   10  5
h-HH	H-l—»	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	I	»—
                                                         2  I  .5 .2.1  .01
 MUSK HIXH  3
 CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY  DISTRIBUTION
 FOR 1 HOUR S02 CONCENTRATIONS
 AT STATION    2
  0CALCULATED
  ^MEASURED MINUS BACKGROUND
         I  I  I—HH
     .01 .OS .1.2 .S 1  2
                  1-
H	1	!	1	1	1-
                 10  20  90 40 50 60 70
                    PERCENTAGE OF CONCENTRATIONS
                    LESS THAN INDICATED  VALUE
                                   88.8  88.88
         Figure  A-30b.
              Cumulative  frequency distributions of calculated
              concentrations and measured  concentrations cor-
              rected for  background at the Muskingum Plant for
              receptor 2  for mixing height class 3 (1200 m -*•)
                                    143

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                    PERCENTAGE  OF CONCENTRATIONS
                    GREATER THAN INDICATED VALUE
  '£388.8888.8 88.58988  85 80  80 708050  4030  20   10  5
                                               2  1 .ft .2.1  .01
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HUSK HIXH 3
CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FOR 1  HOUR S02 CONCENTRATIONS
AT STATION    3
 0CALCULATED
 ^MEASURED MINUS BACKGROUND
     .01 .06 .1.2 .5 1
          2   5   10  20 90 40 50 60 70 80  90
          PERCENTAGE OF  CONCENTRATIONS
          LESS  THAN INDICATED VALUE
      98 98 89.5 88.8  88.98
          Figure  A-30c.
               Cumulative frequency  distribution of calculated
               concentrations and measured concentrations  cor-
               rected for background at the Muskingum Plant  for
               receptor 3 for mixing height class 3 (1200  m  •»)
                                    144

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               PERCENTAGE OF  CONCENTRATIONS

               GREATER THAN INDICATED VALUE

88.89 88.9  99. S 99 99   98  90  60 70 60 SO  40 30 20  10  5

    I  I  I	HH	1	1	1	1	1	1	1—I	1	1	1	1-
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UJ
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o
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                                               2 1 .5 .2.1

                                              -H - 1 — I - HH
                                                                      .01
MUSK  HIXH 3
CUMULflTJVE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
FOR 1  HOUR S02  CONCENTRflTIONS
AT STATION    4
 ^CALCULATED
 ^MEASURED MINUS  BACKGROUND
         I  I  I	HH—»-
             H
     .01 ,05 .1.2 .8 1  2
                         -J	1—I—1—h
                 10  20 90 40 SO 60 70
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                                                                  o
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                                            90   85   96 89 99.5  89.9  88.98
                    PERCENTAGE OF CONCENTRATIONS
                    LESS  THAN INDICATED VALUE
         Figure  A-30d.
             Cumulative frequency distributions of  calculated
             concentrations  and measured concentrations cor-
             rected for background at the Muskingum Plant for
             receptor 4 for  mixing height class 3 (1200 m ->)
                                    145

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                                  TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                           (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
  EPA-450/3-77-003^
                             2.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
  I I I I—C AAINLJ O W O I I I L_ C
   Improvements to Single-Source Model Volume 3
   Further Analysis of Modeling Results
                                                           3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
                                 5. REPORT DATE
                                  August 1977
                                 6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
  Michael T. Mills
                                 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.

                                   GCA-TR-76-6-G(3)
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
  GCA Corporation
  GCA/Technology Tivision
  Bedford, Massachusetts  01730
                                                           10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
                                 11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.

                                   68-02-1376
                                   Task Order  No.  23
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
  U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency
  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina   27711
                                 13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                                   Final	
                                 14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
            This  report documents an evaluation  of the model performance  stratified
       by six stability classes, three wind  speed  classes, and three mixing  height
       classes.   The  model  accuracy is found  to  be dependent on stability class.
       For stabilities  A and B, the model shows  some tendency to overestimate  con-
       centrations, especially near the plant.   For stabilities D, E, and F, the
       model greatly  underestimates concentrations at all  but the most distant
       sampler.   For  stability C, the model  tends  to agree with the measurements.
       Higher wind  speeds result in a trend  toward overestimates at the Muskingum
       plant, and a trend toward underestimates  at the Canal plant.  For  the Canal
       plant, there does not appear to be a  definite pattern between the  accuracy
       of the model estimates and mixing height.   However, at the Muskingum  plant,
       large underestimates occur for the lowest mixing height class.  This  implies
       that the model  is treating the plume  as  penetrating the top of the mixed
       layer (with  resulting concentration estimates of zero) more frequently  than
       actually happens.
17.
                               KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                              b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                                              c.  COS AT I Field/Group
 Air Pollution
 Concentration
 Turbulent Diffusion
 Mathematical Models
 Computer Models
 Meteorology
 Electric Power Plants
Sulfur Dioxide
Dispersion
Air Quality  Simulation
  Model
Point Sources
Model Validation
Air Quality  Maintenance
13. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
  Release unlimited
                    19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
                     Unclassified
                          21. NO. OF PAGES

                            159
                                              20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
                                               Unclassified
                                               22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
                                           147

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