EPA-450/3-77-021b
December 1977
        AN IMPLEMENTATION
       PLAN FOR SUSPENDED
      PARTICIPATE MATTER
      IN THE PHOENIX AREA
                   VOLUME II -
        EMISSION INVENTORY
  U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
      Office of Air and Waste Management
    Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
   Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

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                                EPA-450/3-77-021b
     AN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
  FOR SUSPENDED PARTICULATE
  MATTER IN THE PHOENIX AREA
VOLUME II - EMISSION INVENTORY
                      by

             George Richard, Ron Tan, and Jim Avery

           Environmental Engineering Division of TRW, Inc.
                   One Space Park
                Redondo Beach, California
                 Contract No. 68-01-3152
              EPA Project Officer: Dallas Safriet
                   Prepared for

          U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
              Office of Air and Waste Management
            Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
            Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

                   December 1977

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This report is issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to report
technical data of interest to a limited number of readers.  Copies are
available free of charge to Federal employees, current contractors and
grantees, and nonprofit organizations - in limited quantities - from the
Library Services Office (MD-35), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711; or,  for a fee, from the
National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield,
Virginia 22161.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
Environmental Engineering Division of TRW, Inc. , One Space Park,
Redondo Beach, California,  in fulfillment of Contract No. 68-01-3152.
Prior to final preparation, the report underwent extensive review and
editing by the Environmental Protection Agency. The contents reflect
current Agency thinking and are subject to clarification and procedural
changes.

The mention of trade names or commercial products does not  constitute
endorsement or recommendation for use by the Environmental Protection
Agency.
                      Publication No. EPA-450/3-77-021b
                                   11

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                             TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0  INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY	1-1
     1.1  Results	   1-2
     1.2  Conclusions and Recommendations	   1-9
2.0  BASEYEAR CONVENTIONAL SOURCE EMISSIONS	   2-1
     2.1  Motor Vehicles	    2-5
     2.2  Point Sources	   2-12
     2.3  Stationary Area Sources  	   2-19
     2.4  Aircraft	   2-19
3.0  BASEYEAR ANTHROPOGENIC FUGITIVE SOURCE EMISSIONS  	    3-1
     3.1  Motor Vehicles on Unpaved Roads	     3-1
     3.2  Agricultural Tilling Operations 	    3-25
     3.3  Aggregate Storage Piles	3-33
     3.4  Cattle Feed Lots	   3-41
     3.5  Off-Road Motor Vehicles  	   3-45
     3.6  Construction Activities  	   3-55
     3.7  Entrainment of Dust off Paved Roads  .  .i	   3-64
4.0  BASEYEAR WIND BLOWN FUGITIVE EMISSIONS  	    4-1
     4.1  General Methodology 	     4-5
     4.2  Unpaved Roads	4-14
     4.3  Agricultural Fields 	   4-28
     4.4  Undisturbed Desert  	  4-41
     4.5  Tailings Piles	4-47
     4.6  Disturbed Soil Surfaces	  .  4-52
5.0  BASELINE PROJECTED PARTICULATE EMISSIONS 	  .  .   S-l
     5.1  Conventional Sources  	   5-1
     5.2  Anthropogenic Fugitive Sources  	  ,  5-13
     5.3  Wind Blown Fugitive Emissions   	  5-32
                                     iii

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                        1.0  INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
     This report 1s the second of four documents associated with a project
to develop an air pollution control strategy for total  suspended particu-
late matter in the Phoenix area.  The other documents include a review and
analysis of air quality data (Volume I), development of the relationship
between emissions and air quality (Volume III), and control strategy formu-
lation (Volume IV).  The present report (Volume II) presents an evaluation
of particulate source emissions throughout the Phoenix  area, including a
detailed explanation of methodology employed to derive  the baseyear and
projected baseline emission estimates.   -The estimates are conducted for
three major particulate emission source categories:   conventional  sources,
anthropogenic fugitive dust emissions,  and wind blown fugitive dust emissions.

     Sections 2,3 and 4 involve the estimation of baseyear emission levels
for each of the three major source categories.  Each of these sections is
organized to provide: 1) a review of relevant previous  inventories and
other related information, 2) documentation of the emissions estimation pro-
cedures adopted for the present study,  and 3)the baseyear emissions estimates.
The procedures:for resolving emissions  both spatially and seasonally are
developed, and particle size distributions for the various subcategory
sources are formulated.
     Section 5 concerns the projection  of baseline emissions for the year
1980 and 1985.  Source growth, activity, and modifications are evaluated,
and baseyear emissions adjusted accordingly to forecast future emission
levels.  In addition, the probable future location of new sources  or
redistribution of existing source types is examined, and< unique spatial
source allocations are developed for 1980 and 1985.
                                    1-1

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     A unique feature of the inventory presented here is the preparation
of grid maps and graphical emission maps indicating the geographic distri-
bution of the various source emissions.  The maps are pertinent to the loca-
tional aspects of control strategy formulation.

1.1 RESULTS
     Table 1-1 presents the total particulate emissions inventory estimated
for the Phoenix study area.  In 4975, 54% of the total annual particulate
emissions originate from motor vehicles driving on unpaved roads.  Another  ..
40% of the yearly emissions arise from four other source, categories: .con-
struction, dust on paved streets, undisturbed desert, and disturbed soil
surfaces.  The conventional sources are relatively Insignificant in terms
of overall, magnitude.  By 19j85, the domination of the emissions Inventory
by motor vehicle activity on unpaved roads is even more pronounced.   In
1985, about 63% of all particulate emissions are expected to be caused
by this source.
     The wind blown fugitive sources exhibit significant seasonal variations,
especially in.the baseyear.  Unusua-l meteorology, characterized by low rain-
fall and relatively high wind velocities, caused greater wind erosion during
1975 than would normally be expected for typical historical  meteorology
patterns.  The forecasted emissions from wind erosion fn 1980 and 198*
are substantially lower, due mainly to the assumption that average histori-
                       •
cal meteorology will prevail in these years, '-fit the sarae time that wind
blown dust emissions may be diminishing, anthropogenic source emissions
will be increasing due to population growth and associated increased source
activities.   The tradeoff of emissions growth and decline between these
two major source categories is shown in Figure 1-1.

   Figures 1-2, 1-3, and 1-4 provide a graphical display of the distribu-
tion of total particulate emissions.in 1975, 1980 and 1985.  The distribu-
tion is dominated by fugitive dust emissions originating from motor vehicles
on unpaved roads.  While unpaved roads are expected to diminish in number by
1985, especially near the growth belts around the city, the average daily

                                     1-2

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               TABLE 1-1.  TOTAL PARTICULATE EMISSION INVENTORY FOR PHOENIX STUDY AREA (TONS/DAY)

SOURCE CATEGORY
Stationary Sources
Area Sources
Mobi-le Sources
Aircraft
Agricultural Tilling
Vehicles on Unpaved
roads
Aggregate Piles
Cattle Feed Lots
Off-Road Vehicles
Construction
Paved Streets
Wind Blown Agricul-
ture
Wind Blown Unpaved
Roads
Wind Blown Undistur-
bed Desert
Windblown Disturbed
Soil
Tailing Piles
TOTAL
1975
1st
QUARTER
22
1.4
11
.4
22
1281
.10
6
71
100
248
4.1
1.4
160
161
1.4
2091
2nd
QUARTER
22
1.4
11
.4
30
1365
.10
6
71
100
248
4.0
2.1
244
248
1.4
2354
3rd
QUARTER
22
1.4
11
• .4
1
1365 .
0.10
6
71
100
248
3.8
2.7
321
323
1.4
2478
4th
QUARTER
22
1.4
11
.4
17
1086
.10
6
71
100
248
4.0
3.8;
450
456
1.4
2478
ANNUAL
AVERAGE
22
1.4
11
.4
20
1281
.10
6
71
100
248
4.0
2.5
294
297
1.4
2360
1980
ANNUAL
AVERAGE
27
1.8
13
.4
19
1454
0.1
8
91
254
295
1.7
.6
85
114
1.9
2367
1985
1st
QUARTER
31
2.1
17
.5
21
1500
.10
8
107 .
256
322
1.7
.3
66
43
2.3
2378
2nd
QUARTER
31
2.1
17
.5
29
1636
.10
8
107
256
322
1.7
.5
112
77
2.3
2602
3rd
QUARTER
31
2.1
17
.5
1
1483
0.1
8
107
. 256
322
1.6
.7
104
70
2.3
2406
4th
QUARTER
31
2.1
17
.5
16
1553
.10
8
107
256
322
1.7
.9
56
39
2.3
2413
ANNUAL
AVERAGE
31
2.1
17
.5
19
1553
.10
8
107
256
322
1.7
.6
85
58
2.3
2462
I
co

-------
      2500-
o
h—«
LO
      2000-
O
I— >-
Cd 
-------
I
en
   1
   I
   I
   £
   i
/?.,

/^/v^czvy


'^^^^T^^iS^W. B^
-»₯;6^/imnsc
	,-'^--yu. / /N^ /___ / ~--/ !  i I 7^-^..\i ''—;'• !
^7->C/>4C>9^yr-x'l-\ \^
 /^/ ^^ir^^-L. /^-j i\ V^LA \
V- •' ~"-7'/"'/ •'•"'
/ ^c^// • ^
      Figure 1-2. Total Particulate Emissions, Daily Average, 1925.

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Figure 1-3.   Total  Particulate Emissions,  Daily Average,  1980.

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Figure 1-4.   Total  Particulate Emissions,  Daily Average,  1985

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     The total emissions inventory may also be expressed in terms of an
inventory by particle size.  Figure 1-5 portrays the magnitude of emissions
originating from each of the major source categories for three particle size
ranges.   Due to motor vehicle activity on unpaved roads, the anthropogenic
source category dominates the inventory in each of the size ranges.   This
source exhibits high levels of larger size particles as the mechanical
action of motor vehicle tires and air turbulence cause injection of soil
particles several feet above ground level.
                           PARTICLES <10 u
                    H-
                     200
                                    WIND EROSION

                                    tons/day
                                                            ANTHROPOGENIC
            400
600
             PARTICLES   10-20 ju
                         ANTHROPOGENIC
                    WIND EROSION
             CONVENTIONAL
                                    tons/day
                                H-
                                 400
800
200
                  PARTICLES. >20
600
                                         ANTHROPOGENIC
800
               WIND EROSION
            CONVENTIONAL
               Figure 1-5.  Emissions  of Major Source  Categories
                            by Particle Size,  1975.
                                     1-8

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1.2  CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

     o   Fugitive dust emission  sources  are  widespread  throughout  the  study
         area.  Virtually all  areas in metropolitan  Phoenix are in the
         influence of local  sources, and many areas  (including  monitor
         sites) are in the plume of local  sources (this finding is also
         supported by recent findings of the IITRI experiment [1].  Con-
         trol  strategies to improve air  quality at the  various  monitor
         sites must address site-specific source impact as well as regional
         source impacts.
     o   Seasonal  variations in  the Phoenix  climate  permit fugitive dust emissions
         generated by wind erosion to attain levels  approaching that caused
         by anthropogenic fugitive dust sources.  These wind induced emissions
         are particularly dense in areas bordering and slightly inside the
         city of Phoenix, and depending on seasonal  meteorology, may affect
         city ambient levels of total particulates to an extent comparable
         to that of anthropogenic fugitive dust sources.
     o   Particulate emissions will  continue to increase in future years.
         This  is due primarily to  marked increases expected to  occur in
         anthropogenic source activity (vehicle traffic  and construction).
         However,  it appears that  as development proceeds  in the Phoenix
         area,  the rate of increase of emission levels  will diminish.
     o   There are considerable  uncertainties associated with the  estimation
         of the baseyear and projected baseline emissions  inventories.
         Fugitive dust emissions are related to may  variables and  the  relation-
         ships are not completely understood.  The emission estimates  compiled
         here  should be regarded as  tentative,  and should  be revised as more
         comprehensive data  become available.

     o   Additional  region-specific field  studies are necessary as prerequi-    ;
         sites  to  maximum utilization of existing state of the art emissions
         estimation  procedures.  Specific soil  characteristics  of  various
         sources  should be analyzed  to provide  suitable  parametrizations
         of the various  fugitive dust estimation  models.
                                    1-9

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0  Additional  research shoutid be performed to establish the mechanism of
   soil  suspension under various influence conditions and for different
   soil  characteristics.  Empirical  and theoretical  models are needed to
   express flux as a real  time function of the influence parameters.
                                1-10

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             2.0  ESTIMATION OF CONVENTIONAL SOURCE EMISSIONS

     While reviewing the previous work in the Phoenix area it appeared that
fugitive dust emissions would be the ma.ior component of any particulate emissions
inventory there [1].  It was, therefore, decided that conventional sources
would be considered carefully, but without the same level  of effort as
would be given to fugitive dust emissions.  The results shown here support that
decision; conventional  sources make a relatively small  contribution to
the regional emissions.  However, their inclusion here is  important as
a number of the point sources and the downtown traffic are very close to
monitor sites.  Even though their emissions are small,  the impact on the
local air quality may be significant.
     The conventional sources were divided into four categories: motor
vehicles, point sources, stationary area sources, and aircraft.  The approach
to each category was different, primarily because of the differences in
their respective data bases.  Each category is discussed individually in
the sections below.
     Both fugitive dust and conventional emissions are organized and spatially
disaggregated by use of the TRW Emissions Simulator, a computer program
designed to facilitate regional emissions inventories.   A grid system is
defined with Universal Transverse Mercator coordinates (UTM) by an origin in
the southwest corner of the study region and the basic grid square size
ranging from 0.5 to 10 kilometers on a side.  Each emissions category is
then considered individually and resultant emissions are tabulated into
their originating grid square.  One output file from the Emissions Simula-
tor is compatible with the input requirements to the Climatological Dis-
persion Air Quality Model (COM).  Point and area sources are kept separate
on the COM  input file as required.

     The grid network was defined so as to include a large portion of
 Maricopa County and the northern portion of Pinal  County.  This definition
 allows consideration of all sources which might significantly affect air
 quality in the heavily populated areas of Maricopa County (i.e., Phoenix
 area).
                                     2-1

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     The study area is defined as the rectangle with UTM coordinates (zone
12) of the corners as follows: 1) SW corner- 350,000m E., 3,630,000m N.,
2) NW corner - 350,000m E., 3,750m N., 3) NE corner- 470,000m E., 3,750,000m
N., 4) SE corner- 470,000m E., 3,630,000m N.  Each grid square is 2 kilo-
meters (about 1.2 miles) on a side, and is defined by the UTM coordinates
of its southwest .corner.

     Two forms of output are produced by the Emissions Simulator.  The first
is a printer generated map of the study area with each grid square represented
by a number from 0 to 9.  An overlay is used with the map to locate important
landmarks.  A grid legend is included for each map to give the emissions range
associated with each grid number.  Figure 2-1 is an example of an emissions
grid for the total conventional  source inventory.  On this map a grid square
represented by a 4 would indicate between .04341 and .10597 tons/day of
particulates.are emitted from sources located in that grid square.  Similarly,
for any grid square on any of the emissions maps, one can find the emission
range by comparing the number representing the grid square to that number in
the grid legend.
     The second form of output generated by the Emissions Simulator is a three-
dimensional presentation of the study area emissions.  This form is presented
in Figure 2-2 for the total conventional source inventory.  The scales on the
axes are UTM coordinates and tons/day (z axis).  The main purpose of this
output is to permit a quick and concise perspective of the spatial distribution
of emissions from any source category.  The"Emissions Magnitude" scale is
automatically self-scaling to provide spatial resolution of even the less
significant source categories such as airports.  The air quality monitor sites
are depicted with symbo.ls as shown.
     A summary of baseyear conventional source emissions is presented in
Table 2-1.  The total magnitude of the conventional source emissions is
relatively insignificant for a region as large as the specified study
area.  This is consistent with expectations and previous studies of the
Phoenix area.   Point sources and motor vehicles contribute about 95% of
the conventional inventory emissions.   These sources are most heavily
concentrated in the urban and urbanization expansion areas of the study
region as shown by the grid map of Figure 2-1 and the emissions graphics
of Figure 2-2.
                                     2-2

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       GflO LEGEND
GRID
coot
             tMISSIONS
      C.00000 TL
       .00000 10
       .COZ71 lu
       .01373 TC
       .o<.3
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ro
i
          Figure 2-2.   Average Dally Participate Emissions  from Conventional  Sources,  Fourth Quarter,  1975

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       TABLE 2-1.  SUMMARY OF BASEYEAR CONVENTIONAL SOURCE EMISSIONS
             CATEGORY

             Point Sources
             Stationary Area Source
             Aircraft
             Traffic
TONS/DAY

21.8
 1.4
 0.4
11.0
2.1  MOTOR VEHICLES
2.1.1  Review of Previous Inventories
     The only previous inventory reviewed was that of PEDCo [1],
In that study the motor vehicle emissions were included with other area
sources from NEDS.  The method used by NEDS is to multiply the number of
gallons of gasoline sold in the county by an emission factor to obtain the
county traffic emissions.
     One obvious limitation of the PEDCo inventory is that this information
is outdated.  The latest available NEDS data was for 1972 at the time of
this study.  Since that time many changes have taken place in the automotive
industry including increases in gasoline mileage and decreases in emissions
per vehicle.  Another possible limitation concerned the potential  of the
grid system to provide suitable spatial  resolution of sources.   The mini-
mum grid square was 10 kilometers, which does not permit disaggregation
of emissions to the extent that localized emission levels may be represen-
ted.  The degree of spatial  resolution attained by the emissions grid network
is related to the ability of the air quality model to predict receptor
concentrations in agreement with observed air quality measurements.

2.1.2  Methodology of the Present Inventory
                                    2-5

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     A computer tape containing the 1975 Historical  Record and Link Data
from Maricopa County was obtained from the Arizona Department of Transporta-
tion [2].  The tape included the coordinates and volumes of all paved
roads (excepting some residential streets) in the metropolitan area so that
VMT (vehicle miles traveled) could be calculated for each grid square.
Emissions from each link were assigned to grid squares proportional to
the fraction of the link lying in a given grid square.  For example, if
half of a link lay in a given grid square, then half of its emissions
were assigned to that grid square.
     Total VMT was found to be 16.7 million miles per day in 1975.  This
figure for VMT includes some 1.4 million miles per day which were added
to the data received from Maricopa County.  These extra  vehicle miles ,
traveled include highway and freeways in the outlying portions of Maricopa
                  i                                               '  .  -
County and Northern Pinal County which were not included in the County
Historical Record.  A publication from the Arizona Department of Trans-
portation provided the necessary information [3].

     County registration data from 1975 was used to distribute the total
VMT to the various vehicle classes [4].  The distribution of VMT was
assumed proportional to registration data and is given in Table 2-2
Since the heavy duty vehicle (HDV) class was not registered by the sub-
categories of gasoline and diesel, it was assumed that half of HDV's were
gasoline and half diesel.
                                TABLE 2-2
                            VEHICLE DISTRIBUTION
                         (FRACTION OF TOTAL VEHICLES)
             LDV
             LOT
             HDV Gas
             HDV Diesel
             Motorcycle
.731
.099
.060
.060
.049
                                     2-6

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     All emission factors were produced in accordance with Supplement
No. 5 of AP 42 [5].   The Fraction of Miles by vehicle age group from
light duty vehicles  (LDV) and light duty trucks (LOT) classes are
assumed equal to the national averages.  Tables 2-3  and 2-4  show the
calculations used for LDV and LOT emission factors.
     Heavy duty gasoline and diesel vehicles were assumed to have an
average of six tires (for purposes of tire wear estimates).   Exhaust and
tire wear emission factors for HDV and motorcycles are calculated below.
Motorcycles were assumed to be 40% 2-stroke in accordance with national
figures.
             HDV Gasoline
                EQ = .91 + .20 (6/4) - 1.21 gin/mile
             HDV Diesel
                EQ = 1.30 + .20 (6/4) = 1.60 gm/mile
             Motorcycles
                EQ = .40 (.33) + .60 (.046) = .160 gm/mile

     The emission factors for the five vehicle classes were  combined via
the Vehicle Distribution from Table 2-3 as follows:
     EQ = .731 (ELDV) * .099 (ELDT) + .06 (EHDV gas) + .06 (EHDV die$el) +
          .049 (Emc)

     E1975 = -731 f'51') + '°99 (-52) + '°6 (1>21^  + '°6 (1<6°) + '°49 Ul6)
           = .601 gm/mile
2.1.3  Emission Estimates
     Using the procedure outlined in Section 2.1.2,  motor vehicle emissions
were computed.  The  1975 motor vehicle emissions were 10.2 tons/day.  Shown
in Figures  2-3 and  2-4 are the graphical representations of emissions
from traffic over paved roads (Refer to Section  2.0  for an explanation of
these graphics.).
                                    2-7

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                                          TABLE 2-3.  LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE  EMISSION  FACTORS  (gm/mi)
no
i
oo
VEHICLE
AGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
n
12
>13
^ E x
~hQ X
* 1975
than
LDV FRACTION OF
OF TRAVEL (MQ)
.112
.143
.130
.121
.108 .
.094
.079
.063
.047
.032
.019
.013
.039
Mo
* 1975
EO
( gm/mi le)
.25
.54
.54
.54 -
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
''
Eo x Mo E
.028
.077
.070
.065
.058
.051
.043 ..
.034
.025
.017
.010
.007
.021
.51
through 1977 vehicles have catalytic converters
pre 1975 or projected post 1977 vehicles.
0
54
54
54
25
25
25
54
54
54
54
54
54
54

wi
1980
EoxMo
.060
.077
.070 :
.030
.027
.024
.043
.034
.025
.017
.010
.007
.021
.45
th lower emi
1985
Eo
= 54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.25
.25
.25
.54
.54

ssions
P x M
"0 0
.060
.Q77
.070
.065
.058
.051
.043
.034
.012
.008
.005
.007
.021
.51


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                                   TABLE  2-4.   LIGHT DUTY TRUCK EMISSION FACTORS (gm/ml)
ro
to
VEHICLE
AGE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
>13
ZEQxM
* 1975
LOT FRACTION OF
TRAVEL (MQ)
.094
.141
.132
.123
.098
.083
.076
.057
.044
.032
.023
.016
.081
0
through 1977 vehicles
* 1975
Eo
(gin/mile)
.347
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54

are assumed
Eox
.033
.076
.071
.066
.053
.045
.041
.031
.024
.017
.012
.009
.044
.52
to be
1980
Mo Eo
.54
.54
.54
.347
.347
.347
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54

2/3 catalyst and
Eox
.051
.076
.071
.043
.034
.029
.041
.031
.024
.017
.012
.009
.044
.48
1/3
1985
Mo Eo
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.54
.347
.347
.347
.54
.54
'•f
non-catalyst.
EoxMo
.051
.076
.071
.066
.053
.045
.041
.031
.015
.011
.008
.009
.044
.52


-------
       GPIO LcGEND
GRID
CODE
hMSbU'NS
ILNi/OtY
      0.00000  Tu
       .OOOOC  IU
       .C0020  (L
       .OGOSV  lu
       .00213  TO
       ,C076
-------
ro
i

            ,
            t-n



                  Figure 2-4.   Average Daily Participate Emissions from Motor Vehicles, 1975.

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2.2  POINT SOURCES
2.2.1  Review of Previous Inventories
     The most comprehensive set of available data  for  point sources was  the
NEDS.  PEDCo used the NEDS in their study.   The latest year for which NEDS
data was available for Phoenix was 1972.   Since 1972,  various  emission
sources have been eliminated, and other sources have been  created.   Also,
operating rates can be expected to change,  resulting in significant changes
in emission levels.  Previous inventories for the  Phoenix  area do not re-
flect these changes in emissions, and are therefore, outdated.
2.2.2  Methodology of Present Inventory
     A base year point source emissions inventory  was  established by adjust-
ing the NEDS emissions to reflect current (1975) emissions levels, and a
projected baseline inventory was developed by adjusting the base year
inventory to reflect growth and attrition of sources by 1980 and 1985.
     NEDS data from 1972 provided the bulk of information  on all point
sources other than power plants.  Two emissions estimates  are usually
given in NEDS printouts; one is a "hand-calculated" estimate based upon
knowledge acquired by the engineer preparing the data, while the other is
computer generated, based on plant process rates and standard emission
factors.  In some cases the differences between the two estimates are
substantial.  It was, therefore, necessary to choose the more accurate
estimate for each source for use in the emission model.
     Discussions with the Maricopa County Health Department revealed that
no local comprehensive point source inventory was  available [6],  The
county offered suggestions concerning modifications to the NEDS data.
Shown in Table 2-5 is a list of point sources which were deleted as a
result of these recommendations.
                               TABLE 2-5
                  POINT SOURCES SHUT DOWN SINCE 1972
             PLANT                           TYPE OF OPERATION
             Teco, Phoenix                       Minerals
             Teco, Tempe                         Minerals
             W.R. Skouser                        Minerals
             T&C. Cattle                         Grain
             Buckeye City Dump                   Open Burning
             Tolleson City Dump                  Open Burning
                                     2-12

-------
     For the sources with especially large variance between hand and
computer generated estimates, a separate calculation was performed
in hopes of determining the most accurate estimate.  These sources in-
cluded for the most part the mineral companies.   The operating rate and
percent control efficiency were taken from NEDS and were multiplied to-
gether with an emission factor from AP-42 based upon the SCC code for
each point source.  The resulting emissions were then compared with the two
estimates given in the NEDS printout.  Shown in Table 2-6 are the point
sources which were changed from the hand estimates given in the raw NEDS
data.  For four of the plants shown in Table 2-6 and indicated with an asterisk,
fugitive  dust  emissions were  included  in  the NEDS  estimates.  These were eliminated
from the conventional portion of the inventory and are included later with
the  fugitive dust inventory.
     Because of basic changes in fuel use patterns over the recent past, it
was decided to update emissions at the local power plants.  Since the 1972
NEDS data a new plant, Santan, was built to the southwest of Phoenix.
Communications with personnel from the Arizona Public Service Company and
the Salt River Project provided information on 1975 fuel use at the six power
plants in the study area [7], [8],  Emission factors from AP-42 were applied
to the baseline fuel use to get emissions in 1975.  One plant (Cross Cut)
in the Salt River Project was hardly used in 1975, and is expected to be
shut down completely by 1980.
     Power plants are the only conventional source for which a seasonal
distribution of emissions is used.  The generating facilities in the Phoenix
area are primarily used as peaking plants to supplement the base load which
is generated in northern Arizona.  Therefore the seasonal variance in
emissions is substantial.
2.2.3  Emission Estimates
     Using the data described in Section 2.2.2, the emissions estimates for
1972 were compiled.  Shown in Table 2-7 are the baseline estimates and
totals for major  point sources.  All point sources given in NEDS are in-
cluded in the inventory.  Only the major sources are called out in that table
for brevity.  Table 2-8 gives the seasonal and annual average emissions for
power plants.  The projections of 1972 data to 1975, and other years
are given in Section 5.1.  Total point source emissions in 1975 are 21.6
tons/day.   Figures  2-5 and 2-6 give  the graphical  representations for  point
source emissions  (refer to Section  2.0 for  explanation  of graphics).

                                    2-13

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                                  TABLE 2-6.  CHANGES TO NEDS DATA
PLANT
* Arizona Sand & Rock
(1801 E. University)
Beeline Sand & Rock
Phoenix Sand & Rock
Renolds Metal
Suncrest Poultry
Johnson Stewart Metals
Union Rock & Mat'l
(Hayden Road)
* Cons Concrete & Supply
(El Mirage Road)
* Cons Concrete & Supply
(W. Broadway)
* Arizona Sand & Rock
(Agua Fria PI.)
Phoenix Sand & Rock
Tri-City Redy Mix
* The NEDS estimates included
study.
NEDS ESTIMATES
HAND COMPUTER
(T/yr) (T/yr)
1590
182
497
1140
40
45
75
T30
197
316
128
13
fugitive emissions
558
1
2
589
66
164
215
163
184
316
150
-
which are considered
TRW ESTIMATE
371
1
2
600
42
164
215
56
40
202
128
19
in the fugitive
ESTIMATE USED.
371
1
2
600
42
164
215
56
40
202-
128
19
inventory of this
ro

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TABLE 2-7.   POINT SOURCE  ESTIMATES
PLANT
Renolds Metal
Royal Sand Co
Teco, West
Union Rock
Beeline
S. Central
Hayden Road
United Metro
40th St.
S. 19th Ave
99th St.
Glendale Ave.
Valley Redi-Mix
Bogle Farms
Feeders Grain Co.
Suncrest Poultry
Gil a Feed Yards
Circle One Livestock
Allied Concrete
Quick Seed & Feed
Southwest Coop.
Johnson-Stewart Metals
S&D Cattle
Hayden Flour Mills
Maricopa Packing Feed Lot
Southwest Feed
Cons Concrete
El Mirage Road
W. Broadway
Arizona Sand & Rock
Agua Fria PI.
E. University
Spreckles Sugar
Phoenix Sand & Rock
Southwest Salt
ACTIVITY
Metals
Minerals
Minerals

Minerals
Minerals
Minerals

Minerals
Minerals
Minerals
Minerals
Minerals
Grain & Cotton
Grain
Grain
Grain
Grain
Minerals
Grain
Grain
Metals
Grain
Grain
Grain
Grain

Minerals
Minerals

Minerals
Minerals
Sugar Beet Process
Minerals
Minerals
EMISSIONS
(TONS/DAY)
1.64
0.51
0.88

0.21
0.95
0.59

0.14
0.19
1.69:
0.11
0.36
0.18
1.29
0.12
0.56
0.79
0.12
0.56
0.24
0.45
0.19
0.43
0.15
0.19

0.15
0.11

0.59
1.01
1.34
1.57
1.21
                   2-15

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                                  TABLE 2-8.  SEASONAL  DISTRIBUTION  OF  POWER  PLANT  EMISSIONS
                                              (tons  of  particulates/day)

Cross Cut
Agua Fria
Kyrene
Santan*
Octillo**
West Phoenix**
TOTALS
JFM
0
1.040
0.295
0 '
0.321
0.163
1.819
* Santan began operations in the
** Since seasonal
proportionally
AMJ
.002
0.964
0.243
0
0.298
0.151
1.658
summer, 1975.
data were not available, these
to Agua Fria.
JAS
.001
1.328
0.288
0.020
0.410
0.208
2.255

were assumed
OND
0
0.901
0.158
0.429
0.279
0.141
1.908

distributed
ANNUAL AVERAGE
.001
1.058
.0.246
0.113
.327
.166
1.911


ro

-------
       GRID LEGEND
GRID
CODE
EMISSIONS
TONS/DAY
      0.00000 TO
       .00000 TO
       .00271 TO
       .01371 TO
       .04334 TO
       .10562 TO
       .21943 TO
       .40653 TO
       .69391 TO
      1.11066 TO
    .00000
    .00271
    .01371
    .04334
    .10562
    .21943
    .40653
    .69351
   1.11068
   1.69315
        Figure 2-5.   Grid  Map  for  Participate Emissions  from
                       Point Sources,  1975.
                                        2-17

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ro



CO
            Figure 2-6.  Average Daily Participate Emissions from Point Sources, Fourth Quarter, 1975.

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2.3  STATIONARY AREA SOURCES
2.3.1  Review of Previous Inventories
     Quantification of area source emission levels in previous inventories
has been limited by reliance on 1972 NEDS data as the most current information
available.  PEDCo used this data for their inventory.  Since open burning
for the most part has been eliminated, and space heating fuel use may have
changed with the beginning of the fuel shortage in 1973, it seemed evident
that reliance upon NEDS might produce large errors.
2.3.2  Methodology and Emissions of Present Inventory
     Area fuel use data for Arizona was taken from two Department of Interior
publications  [9,  10].   The state figures were reduced by a factor of .55 (the
percent of state population residing in Maricopa County in 1970) to reflect
the area fuel use data for Maricopa County.  Emission factors from AP-42
were applied to calculate emissions.  Population growth was used to project
fuel consumption from 1973 and 1974 to 1975.  Table 2-9  gives fuel use and
emissions for the three years.
     The total non-mobile area source emissions were distributed to the grid
system according to population.  A 1970 census tract map was used to estimate
the number of residents in each grid square.  The.emissions were then allocated
to each grid square proportionally to the population in it.
     A graphical representation of area source emissions is given in
Figures 2-7 and 2-8.  Since these emissions were distributed proportional
to population density, these figures can also be interpreted as a popula-
tion distribution.  The three-dimensional picture gives a good description
of the  heavily  populated  area  of Maricopa  County.

2.4  AIRCRAFT
2.4.1  Review of Previous Inventories
     As with area sources, the source of information used in deriving
previous inventories was the 1972 NEDS data.  The NEDS provides a single
total for county wide aircraft fuel use, and includes no information suit-
able for the spatial distribution of aircraft emissions.
                                    2-19

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                                       TABLE 2-9.   AREA FUEL-USE AND EMISSIONS
                                                                 1973
                                                              1974
1975
ro
i
no
O
Distillate Oil
                  •3
   Consumption (10  BRL/.year)
   Emissions (Tons/year)

Natural Gas
   Consumption (10  ft /year)
   Emissions (Tons/year)
                                                                 434.5
                                                                 136.8
                                                                                34648
                                                                                329.2
495.1
156.0
36907
350.6
                  Total  Emissions
                     Tons/Year
                     Tons/Day
                                                                             506.6
                                                                               1.39

-------
       GRID LEGEND
GRID
CODE
EMISSIONS
IONS/DAY
      0.00000 TO
       .00000 ID
       .00002 TO
       .00006 TO
       .00027 TO
       .00061) TO
       .00136 TO
       .00251 TO
       .00
-------
ro
i
INJ
ro
             Figure  2-8.   Average  Dally  Participate.Emissions from Area Sources, Fourth Quarter, 1975

-------
2.4.2  Methodology and Emissions for Present Inventory
     Data for aircraft activity at all civilian airports in the Phoenix
area were obtained from the Airports Division of the Federal Aviation Admin-
istration in Los Angeles.  Activity at military airports was obtained by
telephone calls to the two air force bases in the area.

     After review of the available data for all airports, it was decided
to limit the analysis to only those airports which made a significant
contribution to regional particulate air quality.  Therefore, five
metropolitan airports and two military bases were analyzed for emissions.
The results are presented in Table 2-10.
     The emissions for each airport were distributed only to the grid squares
in which they are located.  This distribution technique is given in Table
2-11.  The grid squares in this table are 1 kilometer square, and the UTM
coordinates are those of the southwest corner of the grid square.  The
graphical representation of aircraft emissions is presented in Figures
2-9 and 2-10..

              TABLE 2-10.  EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR AIRCRAFT
             AIRCRAFT
1975 EMISSIONS
   (TONS/DAY)
             Sky Harbor
             Falcon Field
             Scottsdale
             Phoenix Litchfield
             Phoenix Dear Valley
             Williams AFB
             Luke AFT

             TOTAL
   .190
   .008
   .007
   .004
   .003
   .093
   .054

   .358
                                     2-23

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TABLE 2-11.  AIRPORT LOCATIONS
UTM PERCENTAGE OF
X Y AIRPORTS IN GRID
1. Phoenix Litchfield 372
372
373
2. Falcon Field 432
433
3. Phoenix Dear Valley 398
399
400
401
4. Sky Harbor 404
404
405
405
406
406
5. Scottsdale Municipal 414
415
6. Williams AFB 437
438
439
439
440
7. Luke AFB 370
370
371
371
372
372
3698
3699
3699
3702
3703
3728
3728
3728
3728
3699
3700
3699
3700
3699
3700
3721
3721
3686
3685
3685
3684
3684
3709
3710
3710
3711
3711
3712
15
45
40
50
50 ;
25
25
25
25
1
5
10 !
40
15
20
10
50
50
20
20
20
20
20
15
15
20
20
15
15
                 2-24

-------
       GRID LEGtNO
GRID
CODE
tHISSIONS
TONS/04Y
      O.OOOCO IU
       .00000 TO
       .0001
-------
ro
i
ro
I

I

I

1
              Figure 2-10.  Average Daily Participate Emissions from Aircraft, Fourth Quarter, 1975.

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2.5  PARTICLE SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS
     Particle size data presented in this section are in one of two forms.
If a source type is equipped with controls (as specified by the Maricopa
County Air Pollution Control District), size distributions for the con-
trolled emissions are given.  Otherwise, uncontrolled size distributions
are reported.  The efficiencies of the control were extrapolated from
Figures 2-11 and 2-12.
     For many source categories, particle sizs data were scarce or unavail-
able.  Thus, extrapolations and assumptions were necessary.  The impact of
these assumptions is minimized by the relatively minor contribution of
conventional sources to the total emissions inventory.
Motor Vehicles
     Five categories of motor vehicles are present in the study area:
light duty vehicles (LDV), light duty trucks (LOT), heavy duty gasoline
vehicles, heavy duty diesel vehicles and motorcycles.  Data for only one
category, light duty vehicles, could be located and only for those light
duty vehicles using low-lead fuels.
     It is assumed that the particle size distributions characteristic of
LDV's burning unleaded fuels and without catalytic mufflers are represen-
tative of the size distribution of all motor vehicles.  This distribution
is as follows:
        Particle  Diameter  (p)                    Weight  Percent
                 <1                                   60
                  1-2                                25
                 >2                                   15
          Source:  Reference  [13]
                                   2-27

-------
                                 i  BAG FILTERHOUSE
                                . /  VENTURI SCRUeSIR '6-INCH THROAT, 30-INCH WATER GAUGE)
                                 )  SPRAY rc*Sfi '27-FOOT ClA.'.'.fTERi
                                 '. DRY ELECTROSTATIC PRECiPI TATCR (3-SECONO CONTACT TIM
                                 / MULTIPLE CYCLONES (H-IM.tri DIAMETER TUBES)
                                3 <  SI-.'PLE CYCLONE (4-FOOT DiAMETER)
                                 ( INERIIAL COLLECTOR
                10
                                  30        40        5'J
                                   PARTICLE SIZE, n>\s,an.*
Figure 2-11.  Composite Grade Efficiency Curves Based on  Test  Silica Dust
               Source:   Reference  [11]
                               fARIICU DWMEIES - MICRONS
           Figure  2-12.  Extrapolated Efficiency of  Control  Devices
                          Source:  Reference [12]
                                        2-28

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Aircraft
     No published studies could be located pertaining to particle size
distributions.  It is assumed that the distributions for motor vehicles
will apply to aircraft.
Stationary Point Sources
     The major point sources within the study area may generally be
classified into four categories (see Table 2-7 and 2-8):  the mineral
industry, metals industry, agricultural  processes, and power plants.
Metal s -  the only metal industry plant belongs to Reynolds in Phoenix.
          According to the NEDS point source listing, the particulate
          emissions result  from the chlorinating station, where the
          magnesium content is reduced by lancing chlorine gas into
          the molten metal.  No control  equipment is utilized.  Par-
          ticle size distribution is as follows:
              Particle Diameter
                       <2
Weight Percent
     90
    100
              Source:  Reference [14]
Power Plants - all the power plants listed in Table 2-8 presently burn dis
          tilled fuel oil.*  Size distribution data for distillate is not
          available; thus, data for residual  fuel oil is assumed to apply:
              Particle Diameter (y)             Weight Percent
                       1-2
                       2-5
                      >5
              Source:   adapted from [14]
     88
      7
      3
      2
 fln 1975, a very small percentage of the fuel  used was natural  gas.   It is
 not expected that any of these plants will receive natural gas in the future.
 No power plants in Maricopa County burn coal.

                                    2-29

-------
Minerals-  the processes conducted by the mineral industries are comprised
           of three categories:  crushing and screening rock and sand, con-
           crete batching and asphaltic mixing.  An average size distribu-
           tion for the overall emissions can be specified as follows:
                Particle Diameter (p)           Weigth Percent
                        <2                             5
                         2-20                         27
                        >20                           68
                Source:  Reference [12]

           (The Maricopa County APCD reports  that spray  bars  are  used at
            the crusher and transfer points.   However, no  control  effici-
            encies were found in the literature  for these  devices.   There-
            fore,  uncontrolled sized distributions were  assumed,)

Agricultural Processes - industries in this category are mainly involved
           with grain storage and shipment.  As  could be expected, no infor-
           mation on size distributions could be found.   Thus, it is assumed
           that the distributions for numeral industries will apply to agri-
           cultural processes.
Stationary Area Sources
     Emissions from area sources are the result  of burning distillate fuel
oil for space heating.  Particle size distributions for  power plants are
assumed to be applicable for area sources.
                                   2-30

-------
                            REFERENCES FOR SECTION 2.0
 1.    PEDCo Environmental  Specialist,  "Investigation of Fugitive Dust
      Volume I - Sources,  Emissions,  and Control,"  EPA-450/3-74-036-a.

 2.    Communication with Ellwood C.  Neiman of the Transportation Planning
      Division of the Arizona Department of Transportation,  March 1976.

 3.    Arizona Department of Transportation, "Arizone Traffic FA-FAS State
      Routes 1974," Planning Survey Group, 1975.

 4.    Telephone communication with Ed.  Baldwin of the Maricopa County
      Auto License Department, 3-15-76.

 5.    EPA, "Supplement No.  5 for Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission
      Factors," Second Edition, December 1975.

 6.    Telephone communication with Greg Witherspoon of the Maricopa
      County Health Department, March  and April  1976.

 7.    Communication with James R.  Weiss of Arizona  Public  Service Company,
      Phoenix, April 1976.

 8.    Communication with Don Moon of the Salt River Project, Phoenix,
      April 1976.

 9.    U.S. Department of Interior, "Sales of Fuel Oil  and  Kerosine in 1973,"
      Mineral Industry Survey, 9-5-74.

10.    U.S. Department of Interior, "Natural Gas Production and Consumption:
      1974," Mineral Industry Surveys,  8-29-75.

11.   U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, "Control Techniques
      for Particulate Air Pollutants," National Air Pollution Control
      Administration, Washington, D.C., 1969.

12.   Midwest Research Institute, "Particulate Pollutant System Study,
      Volume II," prepared for the Environmental  Protection  Agency,
      Contract No. CPA-22-69-104, 1971.

13.   The Dow Chemical Company, "Characterization of Particulates and Other
      Non-Regulated Emissions from Mobile Sources and the Effects of Exhaust
      Emissions Control Devices on these Emissions," APTD-1567, March 1973.

14.   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Air Pollution Engineering Manual,"
      Publication No. AP-40, 1973.
                                     2-31

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            3.0  BASEYEAR ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES OF FUGITIVE DUST

      For the context of this study, anthropogenic fugitive dust sources
are considered to be those resulting directly from, and during, human
activities.  Specifically, these are motor vehicles on unpaved roads,
agricultural tilling, cattle feedlots, off-road motor vehicles, construc-
tion activities, and dust suspended by motor vehicles on paved roads.
Fugitive dust emissions from aggregate storage, caused by both anthro-
pogenic and natural causes (wind erosion), are also evaluated in this
section.
     Table 3-1  summarizes the baseyear emissions of fugitive dust from
anthropogenic sources in the study area.   The largest source by far is
motor vehicles  travelling on unpaved roads.   Not surprisingly, these
emissions are distributed mainly in the rural areas of Maricopa and north-
ern Pinal Counties.  The factor having the greatest influence on the
emissions is the silt content of the road surface, which can be as high as
27% for some dirt roads.  Construction activities are the next major source
of fugitive dust, contributing about 100 tons/day.  Off-road motor vehicles,
which includes  motorcycles, contribute the third largest percentage of the
total inventory.  The remaining three sources are relatively minor, as com-
pared to the latter emitters.  Agricultural  tilling operations are seasonal
in nature and range from a high of over 30 tons/day during the spring
quarter to a low of just over 1.5 tons/day during the summer quarter.  Emis-
sion levels from aggregate storage and cattle feedlots are yet more insigni-
ficant, especially considering that these sources are generally located in
rural areas.
3.1  MOTOR VEHICLES ON UNPAVED ROADS
     This section documents the methodology employed to estimate the magni-
tude and distribution of dust emissions arising from motor vehicle travel
on unpaved roads.  In Section 3.1.1, previous emission inventories conducted
for the study area are reviewed to select an appropriate emission model for
the present study.  Section 3.1.2 describes field tests conducted to permit
area-specific characterizations of unpaved road surfaces, and tabulates
transportation  network data to estimate total mileages and spatial

                                    3-1

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       TABLE  3-1.  SUMMARY OF BASELINE ANTHROPOGENIC FUGITIVE
                   DUST EMISSIONS IN THE STUDY AREA
 Source Category                            Emissions (tons/day)
 Motor Vehicles on Unpaved Roads                   1281
 Agricultural Tilling Operations
      Wi nter                                            22
      Spring                                            31
      Summer                                             1.3
      Fall                                              17
 Aggregate Storage                                        .06
 Cattle Feedlots                                         7.5
 Off-Road Motor Vehicles*                               71
 Construction Activities                               100

 *  Off-road  vehicle  emissions  are generated almost  entirely over  the
    two-day weekend period  (see Section  3.5 for  further explanation).
distribution of unpaved roadways.  An emissions model  is then used to gener-
ate emissions estimates.
3.1.1  Review of Previous Inventories and Emission Factors
     A literature search was conducted to obtain results of previous re-
search in the development of fugitive dust emission factors from motor
vehicles traveling on unpaved roads (see Table 3-2).  The factors
of greatest interest to this study were those derived  by the Midwest Research
Institute (MRI) and PEDCo Environmental Specialists, Inc. (PEDCO) as they
were the results of extensive testing and analyses programs.  The remainder
of this section will be devoted to a review of MRI's and PEDCO's work.
     A basic assumption underlying the development of  the PEDCo emission
factor is that heavy traffic (five vehicles per minute) across an unpaved
road approaches the condition of a continuously-emitting infinite line
source, as described by Sutton [14].  Sampling data of particulate concen-
trations were taken by a beta gauge airborne .dust sampling/readout instru-
ment positioned at various distances (from 55 to 300 feet) and heights

                                     3-2

-------
(from 3 to 100 feet) downwind of the road.  Ambient data were substituted
into Button's equation to solve for the source emission rate.  An equation
was then derived which expressed the relationship between vehicle speed
and emission rate over the range of speeds investigated:
                  E = (0.16) (1.068)x                          (1)
          where
                  E = emissions, Ibs/vehicle-mile
                  x = vehicle speed, miles/hour
        TABLE 3-2.  FUGITIVE DUST EMISSION FACTORS FOR UNPAVED ROADS
INSTITUTION WKFGRHIHE—
STUDY
Midwest Research
Institute [1]


PEDCo Environ-
nental Specialists,
Inc. [2]

University of New
Mexico [3]

University of Iowa [4]
C. Anderson [5]
Budget Sound
(Washington) Air
'Dilution Control
Agency [6]

EMISSION FACTOR
e = 0.81 s(3f )
where
e » emission factor,
Ibs/ vehicle-mile
s = silt content of
road surface
material (percent)
S = average vehicle
speed, miles/hour

E = (0.27)(1.068)x
where
E = emission factor,
Ibs/vehicle-mile
x = vehicle speed,
miles/hour
0.93 Ibs/veh1cle-m1le for
particles <6u
0.04 Ibs/vehicle-mile for
particles *3u
5.5 Ibs/vehicle mile
0.5 - 0.7 Ibs/veh1cle-m1le
3.5 Ibs/veh1cle mile at 10
miles/hour
7.0 Ibs/vehicle mile at 20
miles/hour
22.2 Ibs/veh1cle mile at 30
miles/hour
COMMENTS
• Factor assumes a linear dependence on vehicle speed
from 30 to 50 mph.
• Factor is accurate for 4-wheeled vehicles and must
be adjusted for all other types of vehicles.
• No emissions are assumed for days with rainfall
greater 'than 0.01 inches.
• Silt is defined to be particles with a diameter less
than 75p.
• Factor is applicable for particles with a drift
potential of greater than 25 feet, I.e., particles
less than 100y in diameter
t For vehicle speeds below 30 mph, emissions increase
in proportion to the square of the vehicle speed.
• Accuracy of the factor is - 10%.
t Factor is valid for vehicle speeds from 15 to 40
miles/hour.

• Vehicle speed during testing was 25 miles/hour.


9 Vehicle speed during testing was 30 miles/hour.


                                     3-3

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This equation, however, was corrected to account for the fact that the beta
gauge samples a  narrower  range of particle  sizes than the Hi-Vol  samples,  on
which the particulate ambient air quality standards are based.  Hi-Vol data,
taken concurrently with the beta samples, were used to determine the ratio
and correlation between readings of the two types of samples.  As a result,
equation (1) was adjusted upward by a factor of 1.68, yielding the
emission factor:
                  E = (0.27) (0.068)x                          (2)
          where
                  E = emissions, Ibs/vehicle-mile
                  x = vehicle speed, miles/hour
The major weakness in the PEDCo factor is that the "dustiness" (or quantity
of fine dirt particles) on the road surface is not considered.  Another
weakness lies in the assumption that heavy traffic (five vehicles per
minute) approximates an infinite continuously-emitting line source.  An
emission factor developed from such an assumption may not hold true for
vehicular traffic of lower volumes, which is the case in rural Arizona.  One
final weakness is that background concentrations of particulates were not
discounted in determining the emission factor.   It should be noted that
the primary intent of the PEDCo contract was not, specifically to develop-
ment of emission factors, but to develop control regulations to achieve
air quality standards.
     MRI also employed a field sampling program to develop their emission
factor.  These tests included the use of isokinetic samplers located at set
heights and at distances greater than 20 feet from the road.  Hi-Vol samples
were also taken to correct for background dust concentrations.  The following
equations were used in developing the final  factor:
                  e<2     = ER6 F<2                            (3)

                  e2-30   = ER6 (1'F<2)
                  e>30    =  E
          where
                                    3-4

-------
                   e.    =  mass of dust emissions with diameter i  per vehicle-
                           mile
                   E    = integrated exposure measurement
                   Rg    = ratio of dust concentration measured by  the standard
                          Hi-Vol to the concentration measured by  the isokinetic
                          profiler, at 6-ft.  height.
                   F<2  = fraction of the particles smaller than 2y in diameter,
                          measured by high-volume cascade unpaction.
     The only previous inventory accounting for fugitive dust emissions
from dirt roads in Phoenix was performed by PEDCo [2].  PEDCo's methodology
was realitvely standard and straightforward.  Exact mileages of unpaved
foads by county were obtained from state highway department annual reports
on the status of the highway system.  Where available, exact traffic counts
were used; otherwise, estimates obtained from state and county highway
officials were employed.  An average vehicle speed of 30 miles/hour repre-
senting the low of several estimates given by highway department officials,
was assumed.  With these data, total emissions were obtained by simple
multiplication.
     Of more.interest was the determination of emissions on a gridded basis.
this was performed for Easter Maricopa and Pima Counties.  Mileages of unpaved
roads within a given grid were measured off a county map illustrating the
unpaved roads.  Average daily traffic, values were obtained from a county
highway map.  Presumably, the same average vehicle speed, 30 miles/hour,
was assumed.  In conversations with the Maricopa County Highway Department
[8], however, it was discovered that this approach introduced accuracies in
both the mileages and average dally traffic counts.  This is because the
ipaps utilized are incomplete for both categories of data.
                                     3-5

-------
3.1.2  Methodology of the Present Inventory
     This section will detail the approach utilized in estimating fugitive
dust emissions from motor vehicles traveling on unpaved roads.  Topics dis-
cussed are: (1) selection of an emission factor, (2) mileages and distribu-
tion of unpaved roads, (3) vehicle speed, (4) average daily traffic, and
(5) silt content of road surfaces, and (6) effect of rainfall.  Items
(2) through (6) serve as inputs to the estimation process.
Emission Factoi Selection
     Table 3-2 presents the various emission factors available for use.
The primary selection criteria for this study was the  number  of "influence
categories" considered in the factor - i.e., vehicle speed, vehicle type,  .
road surface type.  Also important were the test procedures employed in
deriving the factor.  These include number of tests, type of analyses
performed, sampling method and locale in which the testing was performed,
Based on these criteria, the MRI emission factor was chosen, primarily
because of the "influence categories" considered, but also because of the
comprehensive flux measurements conducted in the field testing.

Mileages and Distribution of Unpaved Roads*
                                                                   i
     Because the emission inventory is to be utilized as an input to the
modeling effort, a spatial resolution of the distribution and mileage of
unpaved roads was mandatory.  After consultation with knowledgeable personnel
at various organizations [7,8,9], two candidate approaches were identified.
The Maricopa County Highway Department has prepared a map illustrating traf-
fic volumes for various roads.  This map also differentiates road types.
By overlapping a grid on this map and measuring road mileages, the distri-
    For the purposes of this study, an unpaved road is one whose surface has
    not been subjected to any chemical treatment, such as bituminous coating.
    Within the study area of this project, unpaved roads are thus either dirt,
    stone or gravel topped.
                                     3-6

-------
bution of unpaved roads can be determined.   The disadvant ges of this approach
are twofold - (1) many existing unpaved roads are not included on the map,
and (2) the map was prepared for the year 1974 and thus does not account for
the construction of new dirt roads or the paving of existing ones in 1975.
The second alternative and the one ultimately selected, involved manipulating
road maintenance data from the Maricopa Highway Department.
     The distribution of unpaved roads maintained by Maricopa County are
summarized in terms of road maintenance districts (see Figure 3-1 and Table
3-3).  It should be noted that the county is responsible for the maintenance
of roads outside metropolitan areas such as Phoenix, Tempe,  Mesa, Chandler,
Scottsdale and Glendale.  As for these areas, the city road  maintenance de-
partments were contacted to obtain the mileages and distribution of unpaved
roads:
        Phoenix           121 miles            Scottsdale    12 miles
        Paradise Valley   10  miles            Glendale      10 miles
        Tempe             3   miles            Chandler      4  miles
        Mesa              17  miles
     No exact locations of these unpaved roads were readily available, so
 it  is assumed that these roads are distributed evenly throughout these
 cities.
     Two additional facts concerning the data presented in Table 3-3 must
 be  mentioned.  Only 70% of the county maintained dirt roads are accounted
 for, as the computerized maintenance records are not yet complete.  To ad-
 just for this discrepancy, it was decided to adjust by 30% the dirt road
 mileages in Table 3-3 to develop a more accurate road inventory.  The second
 fact is that approximately 919 miles of unpaved roads are not maintained by
 the county in the various maintenance districts [8, 15].  Of these, 167 are
 in  national forest areas, 36 in Indian Reservations, and 716 in the remain-
 der of the county [15].  These mileages will be distributed as follows:
                                    3-7

-------
CJ
 I
00
                         AGUILA
                            IV F
                  AGUA CALIENTE
                      III G
                                           WICKENSBURG
                                                                        f             J>ARADIS
                                                                         GLENDALE     *VALLEY

                                                                              PHOENIX SCOTTSDALJ
                                               GILA BEND
                                                 III H
                                                                               NOTE:  LOCATION OF CITIES

                                                                                     ARE APPROXIMATE AND

                                                                                     SHOULD ONLY BE USED

                                                                                     AS REFERENCE POINTS
                      Figure 3-1.   Maricopa County Highway  Department  Road  Maintenance Blading Districts

-------
TABLE 3-3. SUMMARY OF MILEAGES OF UNPAVED ROADS MAINTAINED
BY MARICOPA COUNTY- BY MAINTENANCE AREAS*
MAINTENANCE AREA
1A
IB
1C
ID
IE
IF
2A
2B
2C
2D
2E
2F
3A
3B
3C
3D
3E
3F
3G
3H
31
4A
4B
4C
4D
4E
4F
MILEAGE
28.7
76.47
52.63
51.57
79.15
77.68
134.28
94.41
66.53
71.88
88.89
20.50
65.67
96.45
48.45
53.6
108.25
80.45
56.0
96.50
40.5
91.56
29.47
53.00
134.30
76.20
91.50
* Data as of March 2, 1976. The figures are estimated to account for
approximately 70% of all county maintained unpaved roads.
3-9

-------
     National Forest Areas           167 miles equally between maintenance
                                     areas 1A, IB, and 2A.
     Indian Reservations             36 miles equally between maintenance
                                     areas 2B and 3A.
     County                          716 miles equally to all  maintenance
                                     areas.

     Based on the above considerations, total  unpaved road mileages are
tabulated.  Table 3-4 illustrates the adjusted total  miles of  unpaved roads
in Maricopa County, including both county maintained  and  non-county main-
tained roads for the area of each maintenance  district.
     For the portion of the study area in Northern Pinal  County,  a differ-
ent procedure was required (maintenance data was  not  available for Pinal
County).  Maps from the Arizona State Department  of Transportation illus-
trating the distribution of unpaved roads were obtained and mileages were
extracted by measurement off the map.  These are  presented in  Table 3-5.
Vehicle Speeds
     Conversations with officials at the Maricopa County  Highway  Department
indicated that PEDCo's estimate of 30 miles/hour  was  probably  low, as
vehicle speeds on unpaved roads were estimated to range from 30 to 40 miles/
hour.  For the purposes of this study, an average of  35 miles/hour is
assumed, both for Maricopa and Northern Pinal  Counties.

Silt Content of the Road Surface*
     The determination of the silt content of the road surface is a crucial
issue, as emissions are directly proportional  to the percentage silt.  All
unpaved roads in Maricopa County are either dirt or gravel [8],  No exact
percentages of each type are available, so the opinions  of cognizant
county highway personnel were solicited.  As a result, a  distribution of 60%
dirt and 40% gravel of county maintained roads in each maintenance district
for unpaved roads  in Maricopa County is assumed.   Roads  not receiving county
    For the purpose of the emissions model, silt is defined as particles with
    a diameter of 75y (.075 mm) or less.  The silt content is expressed as per-
    cent by weight.

                                    3-10

-------
TABLE 3-4. UNPAVED ROAD MILEAGES IN MARICOPA
. COUNTY
MAINTENANCE AREA
1A
IB
1C
ID
IE
IF
2A
2B
2C
2D
2E
2F
3A
3B
3C
3D
3E
3F
3G
3H
31
4A
4B
4C
4D
4E
4F
COUNTY MAINTAINED (ADJUSTED)
41
109.2
75.2
73.67
113.07
110.97
191.83
134.87 /
95.04
102.69
126.99
29.29
93.81
137.79
69.21
76.57
154.64
114.93
80.00
137.86
57.86
130.8
42.1
75.71
191.86
108.86
130.71
NO COUNTY MAINTENANCE
82.1
82.1
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
82.1
44.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
44.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.5
3-11

-------
      TABLE 3-4.  UNPAVED ROAD MILEAGES IN MARICOPA
                  COUNTY (Continued)
   CITY	

Phoenix
Scottsdale
Paradise Valley
Glendale
Tempe
Chandler
Mesa
MILEAGE

  121
   12
   10
   10
    3
    4
   17
                          3-12

-------
TABLE 3-5.  UNPAVED ROAD MILEAGES IN NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY
TOWNSHIP AND RANGE
TIN,
TIN,
TIN,
TIN,
TIN,
TIN,
T1S,
T1S,
T1S,
T1S,
T1S,
T1S,
T2S,
T2S,
T2S,
T2S,
T2S,
T2S,
T2S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T3S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T4S,
T5S,
TBS,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S.
TBS,
TBS,
TBS,
TBS,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
R8E
R9E
R10E
RUE
R12E
R13E "
R8E
R9E
R10E
RUE
R12E
R13E
R2E
R8
R9E
R10E
RUE
R12E
R13E
R2E
R3E
R4E
RBE
R6E
R7E
R8E .
R9E
R10E
RUE
R12E
R13E
R2E
R3E
R4E
RBE
R6E
R7E
R8E
R9E
R10E
RUE
R12E
R13E
R2E
R3E
R4E
RSE
R6E
R7E
RSE
R9E
R10E
RUE
R12E
R13E
R2E
R3E
R4E
RBE
R6E
R7E
RSE
R9E
R10E
DIRT
14
0
10
0
0
2
7
10
16
IB
3
8
11
22
0
9
20
7
14
6
7
42
26
26
30
23
6
13
24
0
3
14
3
32
11
9
16
12
1
16
10
7
10
16
29
19
4
6
18
28
7
26
10
14
7
14
29
39
30
26
4S
7
2
2
(MILES)
.0
.2
.0



.B
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.B
.B
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0 '
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.n
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
GRAVEL (MILES)
10.0
2.0
0
0
0
0
O.S
8.0
2.S
0
2.2
2.0
0
1.0
0
2.0
2.0
6.0
0
0
3.0
2.0
6.0
1.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10.0
11.0
17.0
6,0
0
B.n
1.0
B.O
0
0
0
0
0
B.O
4.0
4.0
8.0
4.0
10
4
0
0
0
0
3.0
10.0
S.O
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
                          3-13

-------
maintenance (second column in Table 3-4) are assumed to all be dirt surface.
As for city maintained roads, the same 60/40 split is assumed.  In Northern
Final County, the maps from which mileages were obtained differentiated be-
tween dirt and gravel roads.  Thus the distribution shown in Table 3-5
reflects the.actual mileages.
     Gravel roads possess a relatively low silt content.   Numerous field
measurements by MRI [10] show that an average of 12% silt is a reasonable
figure.  Officials in the Maricopa County.Highway Department estimate a 10%
silt in gravel roads [8],  For the purpose of this report,  a 12% content is
assumed in both Maricopa and Final Counties.

     For dirt roads, it  was unclear whether the particle  size distribution
of the road soil  would be equivalent  to that of the native  soil.   Conse-
quently, field tests were conducted to determine the silt levels  of unpaved
roads selected to be representative of the  predominant  soil  associations in
the study area.   Sampling and analysis procedures were  consistent with the
MRI approach used in developing the emissions model.  Composite samples of
road dust were collected by sweeping  loose  material  from  lateral  strips of
the road surface.  The silt content of the  road soil  was  determined by dry
sieve screening.   Table 3-6 shows the results of the analysis.   It can be
seen that the silt content of soils on unpaved road surfaces reaches an
equilibrium value substantially less  than that of the native soil.  This
is apparently caused by the continual removal of fines  by vehicle traffic,
leaving on the road surface a higher  percentage of coarse particles than is
observed in the native soil.
            TABLE 3-6.  CHARACTERIZATION OF SOIL MATERIAL ON
                        UNPAVED ROADS IN PHOENIX AREA
Soil Type
G1 Iman-Estrel 1 a-Avondal e
Mohal-Contine
Ebon-Pi naimt-Tremant
Rock Outcrop
Silt Content*
of Road Surface
27.2%
14.2
23.3
12.4
Silt Content*
of Native Soil
55 - 80%
55 - 80
15-45
10 - 30
  * Silt content is defined as the percentage (by weight)  of soil  particles
    less than 75 micron in diameter.
                                    3-14

-------
     A general soil map of Maricopa County [11] and Final County [19] were
employed to establish the soil association in each of the designated main-
tenance areas and townships of the study area.  Accordingly, a silt level
was assigned to these cell areas as shown in Table 3-7.

 Average Daily Traffic
      The vast majority of unpaved roads  in  both  Maricopa and Northern
 Final  Counties are not monitored for  traffic counts.   Because no substantial
 alternative means  of estimating daily traffic volumes  were apparent, a
 modified version of average  daily traffic (ADT)  figures  obtained by
 PEDCo [2] (see Table 3-8) was utilized.   The modified version accounts
 for two categories of  unpaved roads - dirt  and gravel, whereas PEDCo
 included four road types. The following consolidation was made: .
      PEDGo Road Types
        Primitive  I
        Unimproved(
        Graded and Drained
        Rock, Gravel, Oiled Earth
    TRW Road Types
Dirt- no maintenance
Dirt- city or county maintained
Gravel- in county or city
 Table  3-9  presents  the  ADT values  employed  in  this  study.  Table  3-10
 classifies the  maintenance area  and  cities  into  urban  and  rural.  All  un-
 paved  roads in  Pinal  County  are  considered  to  be rural.
 Effect of  Rainfall
      Estimates for the average daily emissions throughout the year should
 reflect an adjustment for those days in which rainfall is assumed to
 eliminate  emissions from unpaved roads.  Rainfall of  .01 inch or more is
 assumed to diminish these emissions to negligible levels.  Table 3-11
 shows the  number of days during which .01 inch or more of rainfall occured
 when suspended particulate levels were being measured.*   Emissions calcu-
 lated for  each quarter of 1975 should reflect the effect of rainfall in
 the quarter.   Hence, average emissions from unpaved roads would be 20%
 *  The rainfall adjustments were  related to the  periods of air quality
    monitoring  because  this  permits  direct air quality to  emissions re-
    lationships to  be established  later in the "study.

                                    3-15

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TABLE 3-7. SOIL SILT CONTENT OF UNPAVED ROADS IN STUDY AREA.
ROAD MAINTENANCE AREAS, MARICOPA COUNTY
1A
IB
1C
ID
IE
IF
2A
2B
2C
2D
2E
2F
3A
3B
3C
3D
3E
3F
3G
3H
31
4A
4B
4C
4D
4E
4F
CITIES IN MARICOPA COUNTY
Phoenix
Scottsdale
Paradise Valley
Glendale
Tempe
Chandler
Mesa
AVERAGE SOIL SILT CONTENT ( % )
12
23 ,
20
23
12
12
. 12
23
19
23
23
23
25
23
21
27
26
23
23
23
27
19
21
23
23
23
12

19
19
19
23
23
23
23
3-16

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TABLE 3-7 (CONTINUED). SOIL SILT (

TOWNSHIP-RANGE, NORTH FINAL COUNTY
TIN, R8E
TIN, R9E
TIN, R10E
TIN, RUE
TIN, R12E
TIN, R13E
T1S, R8E
T1S, R9E
T1S, R10E
T1S, RUE
T1S, R12E
T1S, R13E
T2S, R2E
T2S, R8E
T2S, R9E
T2S, R10E
T2S, RUE
T2S, R12E
T2S, R13E
T3S, R2E
T3S, R3E
T3S, R4E
T3S, R5E
T3S, R6E
T3S, R7E
T3S, R8E
T3S, R9E
T3S, R10E
T3S, RUE
T3S, R12E
T3S, R13E
T4S, R2E
T4S, R3E
T4S, R4E
T4S, R5E
T4S, R6E
T4S, R7E
T4S, R8E
T4S, R9E
T4S, R10E
T4S, RUE
T4S, R12E
T4S, R13E
INTENT OF UNPAVED ROADS IN STUDY AREA.

AVERAGE SOIL SILT CONTENT ( % ) .:
19
12
12
12
12
12
21
13
12
12
12
12
27
27
27
21
12
12
12
27
27
27
27
23
12
14
14
21
12
12
12
14
27
14
20
27
23
23
23
27
27
27
12
3-17

-------
TABLE 3-7 (CONTINUED). SOIL SILT CONTENT OF UNPAVKD ROADS IN STUDY AREA.
TOWNSHIP-RANGE, NORTH PINAL COUNTY
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
T5S,
TBS,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
T6S,
R2E
R3E
R4E
R5E
R6E
R7E
R8E
R9E
R10E
RUE
R12E
R13E
R2E
R3E
R4E
R5E
R6E
R7E
R8E
R9E
R10E
RUE
R12E
R13E
AVERAGE SOIL SILT CONTENT ( % )
12
27
21
27
27
27
27
14
23
23
27
27
27
27
21
14
27
27
27
14
14
14
27
27
3-18

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           TABLE 3-8.  PEDCo AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES ON
                       UNPAVED ROADS IN PHOENIX AREA

TYPE OF ROAD
Primitive
Unimproved
Graded and drained
Rock, gravel, oiled earth
AVERAGE
URBAN
5
25
75
100
DAILY VEHICLE COUNT
RURAL
2
20
40
60
    SOURCE:  Reference [2]
          TABLE 3-9.  TRW AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC VOLUMES ON
                      UNPAVED ROADS IN PHOENIX AREA
TYPE OF ROAD
  AVERAGE DAILY VEHICLE COUNT
URBAN                    RURAL
  Dirt - county maintainance
       - no county maintenance
  Gravel -  county maintenance

  Cities - dirt
         - gravel
  75
  15
 100

  75
 100
40
11
60

40
60
                                    3-19

-------
TABLE 3-10.
MAINTENANCE AREAS
1A
IB
1C
ID
IE
IF
2A
2B
2C
2D
2E
2F
3A
3B
3C
3D
3E
3F
3G
3H
31
4A
4B
4C
4D
4E
4F
Phoenix
Scottsdale
Paradise Valley
Glendale
Tempe
Chandler
Mesa
CLASSIFICATION OF MAINTENANCE
CITIES INTO RURAL OR URBAN
RURAL
X
X
X
X
X
X
X





X
X

X
X
X
X
X

X

X
X
X
X







AREAS AND
URBAN







X
X
X
X
X


X





X

X




X
X
X
X
X
X
X
3-20

-------
            TABLE 3-11.  PORTION OF AIR QUALITY SAMPLING
                         DAYS WITH RAINFALL IN 1975.
Quarter
of year
1
2
3
4
No. of days
sampling
participates
15
15
15
15
No. of
days with
rain
1
0
0
3
Fraction of
sampling days
with rain
.06
.00
.00
.20
     year             60                 4                 .06



 less  in  the  fourth  quarter of  1975  than those observed  in the second or

 third quarters.


3.1.3  Emission Estimates

     The calculation of emissions is accomplished according to the procedures

outlined in this section.

Maricopa County

     •  All emissions are calculated on the basis of each road maintenance
        area or city.

     •  Emissions from dirt and gravel roads are calculated separately.

     •  For gravel roads, a 12% silt content and an average speed of
        35 miles/hour are assumed.  The mileage of gravel roads in each
        maintenance area is 40% of the column labeled "County Maintenance
        (Adjusted)" in Table 3-4.  For cities, mileage is 40% of the total
        miles of unpaved roads.  Average daily traffic counts are either
        100 vehicles/day (urban) or 60 vehicles/day (rural).


     •  For dirt roads,  the silt content of each maintenance area or city
        is determined from Table 3-7.  The average vehicle speed is 35
        miles/hour.  The mileages of dirt roads in each maintenance area
        are 60% of  the column  labeled  "County Maintenance (Adjusted)" and
        the column  labeled "No. Maintenance" in Table 3-4.  Dirt road mi-
        leage in cities  is 60% of the  total unpaved road mileages.  Aver-
        age daily traffic is determined from Table 3-9.


Northern Pinal  County

     •   All  emissions are calculated on  the basis  of individual  townships
         and ranges  .
                                    3-21

-------
    •   Emissions from dirt and gravel roads are calculated separately.
    •   Mileages of dirt and gravel roads in each township and range) were
        obtained from maps provided by the Arizona Department of Transportation.
    •   For gravel roads, a 12% silt content and an average vehicle speed
        of 35 miles/hour are assumed.  All gravel roads are classified as
        rural and possessing an ADT of 60 vehicles/day.
    •   For dirt roads, the silt content of each township and range is
        the average of those shown in Table 3-7.  Average vehicle speed
        is 35 miles/hour and the ADT is 40 vehicles/day (based on the
        assumption that all dirt roads are rural).

     The emissions model  is used to estimate average daily dust emissions
from unpaved roads.  For example, in Maintenance area 3A,  the silt content
of county-maintained dirt roads is 25% (Table 3-7),  the total  mileage of
these roads is 93.8 (Table 3-4), the road is classified as rural  (Table
3-10) with an average traffic rate of 40 light-duty vehicles per day (Ta-
ble 3-9) at average speed 35 miles/hour, and during a year (1975) in which
rainfall of .01  Inches or more occured on 6% of the days (Table 3-11).
The average daily emissions from Area 3A in 1975 are:
        e = .81(25)(35/30)(40)(.94) = 89 Ibs/day.
     Computer programs were developed to calculate total unpaved road
emissions for each of the maintenance or township areas.  An additional
program was developed to translate the emissions from the maintenance and
township areas into the cells of the standard emissions grid network.
The calculated emissions are shown in the grid map format in Figure 3-2,
and portrayed graphically in Figure 3-3.  As indicated, emissions from un-
paved roads are concentrated at the perimeter of metropolitan Phoenix,
and a significant portion of the emissions are generated within the city
areas.
     The total dust emissions from unpaved roads throughout the study area
in 1975 were estimated as follows:
Quarter
1
2
3
4
Average
tons/day
1281
1365
1365
1086
1281
                                    3-22

-------
GRID
CODE

 0
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 6
 7
 8
 9
 .004
 .02
 .06
 .16
 .33
 .60
1.04
1.67
   EMISSIONS
   TONS/DAY

   0 TO 0
   0 TO .004
TO .02
TO .06
TO .16
TO .33
TO .60
TO 1.04
TO 1.67
TO 2.53
     Figure 3-2.   Grid  Map  for  Dust Emissions from  Unpaved
                     Roads, 1975.
                                        3-23

-------
co
ro
                     Figure 3-3.  Average Daily Dust Emissions  from  Unpaved  Roads,  1975.

-------
     Uncertainties are introduced at all  levels of the emissions estimates.
For example, errors are introduced in the estimates of average daily traffic
(ADT), as only estimates based on previous work performed by PEDCo were
available.  It proved impossible to verify these ADT figures as very few
vehicle counts have been made on unpaved  roadways.  Inaccuracies also arise
with respect to mileages of unpaved roads in the study area, and the
assumed distribution of road types (60% dirt and 40% gravel) in Maricopa
County.
3.1.4  Particle Size Distributions
     Based on field tests performed with  conventional cascade impactors,
the average particle size distribution of roadway emissions have been
determined as shown below [1].  Due to the low capture efficiency of the
impactor for larger particles, the investigators (MRI) have cautioned that
these determinations,are biased toward overestimation of the smaller parti-
cles.
                 Particle Diameter (microns)       Weight Percent
<2
2-30
30 - 100
25
35
40
3.2  AGRICULTURAL TILLING OPERATIONS
     This section reviews current procedures utilized to estimate fugitive
dust emissions from agricultural tilling operations, and documents the
methodology developed for use 1n the present Inventory.
3.2.1  Review of Previous Inventories and Emission Factors
     Emissions from agricultural activities can be expected to occur during
both the planting season  (when  the soil  is prepared by tilling) and during
the harvesting season.  A literature survey revealed no previous research
for emissions during the harvesting process and only two studies on
emissions from tilling operations (see Table 3-12).
     The PEDCo emission factor  was obtained from an article published in the
USSR.  The manner In which this emission rate was derived is unclear.  The
                                    3-25

-------
                              TABLE 3-12.  EMISSION FACTORS AND AGRICULTURAL TILLING OPERATIONS
     SOURCE
     PEDCo [2]
     MRI  [1]
co
i
f\3
         EMISSION FACTORS
  Q = (45)(1.28)v

where

  Q = emission, grams/second

  v = tractor speed, location/hour
                                   1.4 s
            (*}
            V5T57
  e =
/ PE  \
(50  )
where

  e = emissions, Ibs/acre

  s = silt content of surface soil,
       percent

  S = implement speed, miles/hour
 PE = Thornthwaite's prectpitation-
      evaporation index
                                                 COMMENTS
                                   •  Factor obtained from an  article  published
                                      in the USSR.
•  Factor must be corrected for  irrigation.

t  Factor derived from tests conducted with
   one-way disk plow and  sweep-tvpe  plow,
   with a cut width of 12 ft.

•  Accuracy is +_ 15%.

t  Applicable for particles with a drift
   potential  >25 ft.,  i.e., particles
   <100y in diameter.

-------
MR! factor was the result of a test program similar to the one conducted
for .Improved roads (see Section 3.1.1).

     No previous inventories were available for agricultural tilling emis-
sions in the Phoenix area.  In developing estimates of fugitive emissions
for agriculture in the Phoenix area, PEDCo concluded that only 0.2 tons/acre/
year would be generated by tilling operations [2].  As this estimate resulted
in emission levels considerably less than those estimated by PEDCo for crop-
land wind erosion, the tilling operations were neglected 1n their inventory.

3.2.2  Methodology of Present Inventory
     The MRI factor was selected for the same reasons the MRI factor for
unpaved roads was chosen in Section 3.1.2.  This section will be devoted to
a discussion of the parameters affecting the calculation of agricultural
tilling emissions.  The parameters include: (1) silt content of the soil, (2)
implement speed, (3) distribution of agricultural acreage and (4) temporal
distribution of tilling activities.
     Two general assumptions should be mentioned.   The
first involves the type of implement - the MRI tests are presumed valid
for one-way disk and sweep-type plows.  Conversations with the Maricopa
County Agricultural Agent [16] indicated that a wide variety of implements
are actually employed, ranging from disk plows to moldboard plows to listers.
It is assumed emissions do not differ greatly from one implement type to
another.  Secondly, it is presumed that no irrigation is conducted before
plowing.  This was substantiated by the County Agricultural Agent [16].  It
should be noted that most fields are flooded with 9" to 12" of water after
plowing to leach out salts from the previous season.
Distribution of Agricultural Acreage
     The spatial distribution of agricultural acreage .within the study area
was obtained from the "Cropland Atlas of Arizona" [17].  This publication
illustrates the location and shape of agricultural fields for the entire
state as they appear from high altitude.  Flights were conducted by the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration from May 1972 to October 1973.
Although this period does not correspond to the baseyear of this study

                                    3-27

-------
 (1975), the distribution of all crop acreage has not changed substantially
 during the intervening years  [16].
     The agricultural acreage within each township was estimated by scal-
 ing the aerial maps of the cropland Atlas."  A check procedure was employed
 for Maricopa County to compare the published agricultural acreage (Refer-
 ence [18]) versus the estimated acreages.  The total of the estimated
 acreage of all townships was found to be only 8% less than the published
 figures.
 Soil Silt Content
     Silt content is defined to be the weight percent of the top four
 inches of soil having particle diameter from 2 to 50 microns (.002 mm to
 .05mm).  The procedure employed to determine silt content for cropland
 of a given townwhip is as follows:
     •    In any  given township, the predominant  soil type  in the area where
          crops are  grown is assumed to be the soil  types for all agricultural
          acreage in that township.  Soil type distributions were found  in
          References [11] and  [19].
     •    For  soil types which  surface silt  content  was available  (Reference
          [13], these figures  were employed.  Otherwise,  silt content of a
          deep core  sample  (generally 0 to 5 feet in depth) as  described
          in Reference [12] were used.  In all cases, a range of  silt con-
          tents is available.

 Implement Speed

     Limited data are available to characterize  typical  speeds  of tillage
 implements [1].   Investigation during  the present study confirmed previous
 findings that a  speed of 5  miles/hour  is  generally  representative of most
 tilling operations [16].
Temporal  Distribution of Emissions
     Tilling operations  are conducted  once  anually  and  in a given season
depending on the  crop type.   Emissions were  calculated  on a temporal  basis
to demonstrate this  variation.  Figure 3-4  illustrates  the  usual  planting
periods for the major crops in Maricopa and  Final Counties  (Citrus  fruits
are not included, as they are  not  planted yearly).
                                   3-28

-------
CO
I
ro
vo
Crop
Cotton
Alfalfa1
Wheat
Barley
Sorghum
Vegetables2 A
Saf flower
Sugarbeets

Jan




k



Feb






t

Mar
A_
i







Apr
1





>

May
k


>




June








July
,


,




Aug



v


^

Sep
t

t



k

Oct
,

>



t

Nov

A



,
,

Dec
t




L


Jan
,
,


,
,


Feb

I



,


        Source:  Reference (18)
           1
            Alfalfa is planted and then cut for three years.  Planting ts usually during Fall and Spring.


           "Vegetables include broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, lettuce and onions.  These vegetables
            are planted at different times during the year (i.e. cabbage from Aug. 1-March 15, onions from
            Oct. 12-Dec. 5) but span the entire year.  For the purposes of this study, vegetables are assumed
            to be planted all-year around.
                                    Figure 3-4.   Typical  Planting Dates in Arizona

-------
3.2.3  Emission Estimates

     All emissions are calculated on a township basis as follows:

     (1) The fraction of each township used for agriculture is obtained
         from Reference [17].  The percentage multiplied by 23,040
         acres/township yields the acreage of farmland.

     (2) The silt content of the agricultural acreage calculated in Step (1)
         is available in References [12] and [13].  An average value of silt
         is employed.

     (3) The average speed of the implement is 5 miles/hour,

     (4) The historical Thornthwaite Precipitatlon-Evappration Index for irri-
         gated agricultural lands in the study area is approximately 50 (see
         Section 4.3).

     (5) The emission (Ibs/acre) can be calculated from the information
         obtained in Steps (2), (3) and (4).

     (6) The total agricultural tilling emissions in a township are calculated
         from the result of steps (1) and  (5).

     The following sequence of steps describes how the emissions are distribu-

ted within any township on a temporal basis:

     (7) Table 3-13 illustrates the percentage of the total acreages in
         Maricopa and Final Counties devoted to each crop type.  Only
         crops requiring tilling (i.e., excluding citrus crops) are
         considered.  These percentages are assumed to be applicable for each
         township, e.g., 35% of each township in Maricopa County is used
         to grow cotton.

      (8) Emissions from one crop type are distributed  temporally only  during
          the planting season for that crop.   For example,  all  cotton related
          tilling emissions occur only from mid-March  to the end  of April
          (see Figure 3-4).

      (9) Table 3-14 presents the temporal  distribution of  tilling  emissions
          by crop type.   For cotton  cropland in  Maricopa County,  1/3 x  35%  =
          11.6% and 2/3 x 35% = 23.4% of the annual  study area  tilling  emis-
          sions occur on cotton fields in  March  and  April respectively.

     Tilling emissions vary substantially  by season.   The greatest  tilling

activity occurs in the second quarter of the year, when about 30  tons/day of

fugitive dust are generated.   Tilling on cotton  fields  contributes  the  major

portion of dust emissions during this period.   Tilling  emissions  average

only 1  ton/day during the third quarter, when planting  activity for most

crops 1s minimal.  The total  emissions inventory for tilling operations  in


                                    3-30

-------
TABLE 3-13.  CROP ACREAGE DISTRIBUTIONS IN MARICOPA AND FINAL COUNTIES [18]
County
Maricopa






Final







Does not
and field
2
Includes
onions.
Crop1
Cotton
Alfalfa
Wheat
Barley
Sorghum
2
Vegetables
Saf flower
Sugarbeets
Cotton
Wheat
Barley
Alfalfa
Sorghum
Saf flower
Sugarbeets
Vegetables
include citrus crops
crops.
1974 Acreage
166,100
106,900
74,000
50,000
32,000
25,410
7,700
4,670
472,580
141,950
56,000
38,000
18,900
14,000
6,800
4,670
4,380
284,700
and miscellaneous
broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower
Percent of
Total Acreage
35
23
16
11
7
5
2
1
100
50
20
13
7
5
2
2
1
100
fruits, vegetables
, lettuce and dry
                                    3-31

-------
               TABLE 3-16.   TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF TILLING EMISSIONS  IN MARICOPA AND  FINAL COUNTIES
County
Maricopa







Final







Crop
Cotton
Alfalfa
Wheat
Barley
Sorghum
Vegetables
Safflower
Sugarbeets
Cotton
Wheat
Barley
Alfalfa
Sorghum
Safflower
Sugarbeets
Vegetables
Percent of
Total County
Emissions
35
23
16
11
7
5 '
2
. 1
50
20
13
7
5
2
2
1
Percent Distribution of Crop Type Emissions by Month.
J


5.4
2.2

0.42
1


8
2.6


1

.083
F



2.2

0.42




2.6




.083
M
11.6




0.42

0.33
16.1





0.67
.083
A
23.4
1.27*



0.42


33.4


0.39*



.083
M

1.27*


3.5
0.42





0.39*
2.5


.083
J

1.27*


3.5
0.42





0.39*
2.5


.083
J





0.42









.083
A





0.42









.083
S





0.42

0.33






0.67
.083
0 '

1.27*

2.2

0.42

0.33


2.6
0.39*


0.67
.083
N

1.27*
3.2
2.2

0.42



4
2.6
0.39*



.083
D

1.27*
5.4
2.2

0.42
1


8
2.6
0.39*

1

.083
CO
no
         *Alfa1fa is planted once  each three years.  These percentages are thus 1/3 of emissions from tilling operations.

-------
 the  second quarter  is shown  in grid map format  in Figure 3-5, and graphi-
 cally  in  Figure 3-6.  As indicated, the greatest agricultural activity
 occurs at the Northwest and  Southeast boundaries of metropolitan Phoenix.

3.2.4  Particle Size Distributions
     The MRI  test results indicated that, on the average, dust emissions
from agricultural  tilling have the following particle size characteristics:

          Particle Diameter (microns)    Weight Percent

                 < 2                         35
                 2-30                      45
               >  30                         20

3.3  AGGREGATE STORAGE PILES
3.3.1  Review of Previous Inventories and Emission Factors
     Only two published emission factors are known to be reported,  one in
the EPA Publication AP-42 [20] and one by the Midwest Research Institute [1]
 (see Table 3-15).  No details concerning the EPA derivation are known, so
the discussion will focus on MRI's work.
                                    3-33

-------
GRIP
coor
cWISSIGNS
IONS/DAY
            TO
       .00000 TO
       .00011 10
       .^0057 TO
       .001SO TO
       .00*40 TO
       ,omi3 TO
       .nif.9? 10
       ,0?fl»fc  TCl
       .n<.«.??  TQ
    .00000
    .001)11
    .00057
    .uoico
    .00913
                  . 070
-------
CA>
cn
      Figure  3-6.   Average Dally Dust Emissions from Agricultural Tilling Operations, Second Quarter,  1975.

-------
                       TABLE 3-15.  EMISSION FACTORS FOR AGGREGATE STORAGE  PILES

                                                                           Comments
Emission Factor
EPA Document AP-42 [20]:

   e = 2 Ibs/ton of stored product
   e = 10 Ibs/ton of stored product
                                      •  Screening, conveying and handling losses

                                      •  Storage pile losses
 MRI  Investigation [1]:
   Aggregate Storage Operation  (1)
Storage Pile
  Activity

Active3

Inactive
(wind blown)

Normal mix *c
Lbs/acre of
Storage/day

   13.2
    3.5


   10.4
Lbs/ton placed
  in storage

     0.42
     0.11
     0.33
   a8-12 hour activity/24 hour day

    *C5 active days/week
      Normal Mix

   Loading onto piles

   Vehicular traffic

   Wind erosion

   Loadout from piles
            Lbs/ton placed
              in storage

                 0.04

                 0.13

                 0.11

                 0.05
                                  0.33
Applicable for particles with a drift potential
>1QOO ft, i.e., particles smaller than 30v in
diameter

Correction factor for normal mix for different
climatic regions:

                  e _  0.33
                                         where
                               PE  =
                                                    Thornthwaite's  precipitation
                                                    evaporation  index
          Aggregate Loadout Operation  C2)

   e = 0.11  Ibs/ton loaded

-------
     MRI conducted two field sampling programs.  The first was designed to
quantify total dust emissions from the various constituent sources asso-
ciated with a representative aggregate storage operation, while the second
attempted to quantify emissions from a specific storage transfer operation -
aggregate loadout.
     Conventional Hi-Vol samplers with wind direction activators were
employed in the first study because of the diffuse and variable nature of
the source.  Four influence factors - rainfall, wind speed, type of aggre-
gate and amount of activity in the piles - were considered.  Only two,
rainfall and amount of activity, were found to affect emissions.  Emission
factors were calculated by assuming that all emissions from the stockpiles
passed through an imaginary vertical plane with the dimensions of the width
of the storage area by the average height of the piles; that the samplers
located downwind of the piles sampled particulate concentrations represen-
tative of average partfculate concentrations passing through this vertical
cross section; and that the total air volume containing this average con-
centration could be approximated as the average wind speed times the area
of the cross section.  Calculations were performed for two conditions,
active piles and inactive piles, and included contributions from the move-
ment of traffic among the storage piles and from loading and unloading
operations, plus wind erosion.  The factors do not include emissions from
the mining or processing of the aggregate or from traffic  movement in
other parts of the plant.  MRI cautions that the factors are not uni-
versally applicable and are intended to be representative for storage
piles in areas of the country with  climatic conditions similar  to Cincinnati,
Ohio.  For normal mix operations (see Table 3-15), a correction factor for
different climatic conditions is given.

     Field measurements were also made during  the aggregate loadout pro-
gram.  Conventional Hi-Vol and cascade impactors were  the  instrumentation.
A  high-loader and dump  truck were the "test vehicles."  Total dust emis-
sions were the sum of the integrated exposure  (above the background) and
the amount of deposition between the back of the truck and the  exposure
profiler.  Results of the program are shown in Table 3-15.
                                    3-37

-------
     A previous inventory of aggregate pile emissions  was performed for
the Phoenix-Tucson AQCR by PEDCo.   Emissions were estimated utilizing the
EPA emissions factor and by obtaining storage pile data  through existing
emission source files at county and state air pollution  control agencies.
3.3.2  Methodology of the Present  Inventory,
     The MRI "normal mix" emission factor, adjusted to the historical PE
Index for Phoenix (see Section 4.2), was selected.  Accordingly, an emis-
sion factor of 36.6 Ibs/ton of aggregate storage was calculated.  The
locations and storage rates of aggregate piles were obtained from the most
recently available NEDS point source listing.  Based on  an average of
approximately 1100 tons of aggregate pile material stored throughout the
study area, total dust emissions arising from these atorage piles is esti-
mated to be relatively insignificant—  just .01 tons/day.  Figures 3-7
and 3-8 illustrate the grid map and distribution of aggregate pile emissions
for the study area.
3.3.3  Particle Size Distributions
     MRI did not  conduct a particle  size distribution measurement program
for the  "normal mix" emission factor.  However, such a program was carried
out for  the aggregate  loadout emission factor.  The loadout size distribu-
tions were assumed  to  be representative for  the normal -mix emissions.  This
distribution is as  follows:
            Particle Size  (n )             Weight  Percent
                     1                           30
                  1-2                         46
                  2-3                         16
                  3-4                         6
                     4                           4
Three major sources of uncertainties are associated with this data: (1)
the sampling technique 1s biased towards the smaller diameters, (2) aggre-
gate loadout emissions comprise only 1/3 of the total  "normal mix" emis-
sions (see Table 3-15) and (3) the characteristics of  aggregate as tested
by MRI may not be similar to those in Arizona.
                                    3-38

-------
GRID
CODE

 0
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 6
 7 v
 8
 9
        EMISSIONS
        TONS/DAY
0.00000 TO
 .00000 TO
 .00004 TO
 .00023 TO
 .00072 TO
 .0017} TO
 .00363 TO
 .00672 TO
 .01147 TO
 .01837 TO
.00000
.00004
.00023
.00072
.00179
.00163
.00672
.01147
.01837
.02800
         Figure 3-7.   Grid Map for Dust Emissions  from Aggregate
                         Piles,  1975.
                                              3-39

-------

i.
      Figure 3-8.  Average Daily Dust Emissions from Aggregate Piles, 1975.

-------
3.4  CATTLE FEEDLOTS
3.4.1  Review of Previous Inventories and Emission Factors
     PEDCo was found to have developed the only emission factor for cattle
feedlots (see Table 3-16).  The development involved ambient air measure-
ments during two 24-hour periods at 24 California feedlots.  The feedlot
emission factor was derived by relating ambient air data to emission rates
utilizing the Pasquill-Gifford diffusion equation [14].  Concurrent wind
data for the tests was not available, hence, mean local annual wind speeds
and a D stability class were assumed.  Thus, PEDCo concluded that the calcu-
lated average values could be inaccurate by a factor of 2.  The emission
factor is expressed in terms of tons per thousand head cattle or as tons
per acre of feedlot.
     The only emission inventory performed for cattle feedlots in the Study
Area was also conducted by PEDCo [2].  Feedlots containing more than 5000
head only were considered.  The names and sizes of individual lots were ob-
tained by a telephone survey of names shown in local agency files or in the
telephone directory.  The totals from this survey were balanced against
published data in county agricultural statistical reports.

  3.4.2  Methodology of the  Present Inventory
       The  Maricopa County Agricultural  Agent  [16] was  contacted  to
  determine the  size and locations  of major cattle feedlots (greater than
  5000  head/feedlot) in Maricopa and northern  Pinal  Counties.   These are
  presented in Table 3-17.   By applying  the emission factors shown in
  Table 3-16,  total  average  feedlot emissions  were calculated  to  be 6.5  tons/
  day in  the study area.   Figures 3-9 and 3-10 illustrate  the  emission distri-
  butions for the study area.

 3.4.3  Particle Size Distributions

       Particle sizes of cattle feedlot dust emissions are not reported in
  the literature.  Because of the continual pulverization of the feedlot soil
  by cattle, the dust arising from this activity was assumed to approximate
  the size distributions of dust emissions off dirt roads.
                                    3-41

-------
            TABLE 3-16.  EMISSION FACTORS FOR CATTLE  FEEDLOTS
Cattle,
1000 head
Range Average
<3 2
3-30 9
>30 45
Size of Feed lots
acres
Range Average
<20 5
10-100 20
>60 90
Annual
Emissions
tons/103 heads
8
8
5
Annual
Emissions
tons /acre
3
4
3
  TABLE 3-17.  CATTLE FEEDLOTS IN THE STUDY AREA
County
Maricopa
Pinal
          Feedlot and Address
Rogers Feedlot - Baseline and 51st Avenue
Herseth Feed Co. - 35th Ave and Southern
Hughes-Garry Co. - Queen Creek Rd.
Scottsfield Feeding Co. - Scottsdale
Willis Feed Co. - McQueen Rd and Germaine
Arlington Cattle Co. - Arlington
Gila Feed Yard - Gila Bend
Producers Livestock - Washington St.

Spur Industries - Sacaton
Red River Feeding Co. - Stanfield
Benedict Feed Co., - Stanfield
Kelly Feeding Co. - Maricopa
T & C Feeding - Maricopa
West Coast Cattle Co. - Casa Grande
Size (103 Head)
       8
      30
      55
      11
       4
      30
      40
      15
      30
     125
      20
       5
      25
      30
                                   3-42

-------
GRID
CODE

 0
 1
 2
 3
 *
 5
 6
 7
        EMISSIONS
        TONS/DAT
o.oonoo TO
 .00000 TO
 .0001* TO
 .00070 TO
 .00220 TO
 .00537 TO
 .01115 TO
 .02065 TO
 .03573 TO
 .056*2 TO
.00000
.0001*
.00070
.00220
.00537
.01115
.02065
.03523
.056*2
.08600
      Figure  3-9.   Grid  Map  for  Dust  Emissions from  Cattle Feedlots,  1975.
                                            3-43

-------
co
i
         Figure 3-10.  Average  Daily  Dust  Emissions  from  Cattle  Feedlots,  1975.

-------
3.5  OFF-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES
     In the context of this study, off-road vehicles are defined to
include both motor vehicles and motorcycles.  Generally, the motor
vehicles possess four-wheel drive and the motorcycles are of the two-
stroke variety.
     Very little data is available to determine the frequencies and loca-
tions of off-road vehicle use.   The activity is recreational  in nature and
subject to unpredictable variations.  The information presented here is
based on crude estimates obtained from cognizant individuals familiar with
off-road vehicle use.

3.5.1  Motorcycles
     Over 95% of the dirt bike activity occurs within a 100 mile range
of the metropolitan Phoenix area.  The most popular areas are in the
hills and mountains to the north and east of the metropolitan areas,
where 3000 - 4000 riders may be found during weekends [21, 26].  On
weekdays, the activity drops into the hundreds.  Typical of the riding
activity in these locations is cross country biki.ng, with the Cavecreek
and Usery Mountain areas as locations of where this activity originates.
Other areas include Apache Junction in Pinal County, Buckeye, Lake
Pleasant and the Four Peaks area in Maricopa County [21,22,23,24,25,26].
The city of Phoenix has set aside 270 acres northeast of the town of
Catcus for dirt riding.  In that area, weekends draw about 75 bikers/day
and weekdays about 10/day [23].

     Bureau of Land Management property is widely  and indiscriminately
used by bikers.  Most commonly used are the ground surfaces readily
accessible from roadways, where there is a lack of development and where
there are no indications of BLM supervision [22],   Maricopa County has a
no-riding policy which apparently cannot be enforced.  Both the U.S. Forest
Service and BLM are contemplating the closure of certain areas, but defi-
nite action has yet to be taken [21,22],
                                   3-45

-------
     Dirt biking is a year-around activity in the Phoenix area.   The
bikers generally stay on site for 3-5 hours and travel  at speeds not
exceeding 30 miles/hour.
     Emission Factor
     The MRI emissions' model [1] for motor vehicles on unpaved roads was
adopted for use.  Consultation with MRI [10]  indicated that
the factor should be adjusted downwards by 25% to 50% due to both the
number of wheels and aerodynamic characteristics of motorcycles versus
motor vehicles.  The decision was made to employ a 50% reduction.
     Location and Level  of Activity
     Based on an average of 3500 total cycles operating per weekend in the
designated areas, the townships within the study area may be determined.
The assigned activity levels are shown, township by township, in Table
3-18.  Weekday activity is assumed to be about one seventh that for a
weekend day.
     Average daily travel per cycle is assumed to be about 45 miles based
on 3 hours of riding at approximately 15 miles/hour.
     Vehicle Speed
     An average speed of 15 miles/hour is assumed.
     Soil Silt Content
     The silt content of the townships presented in Table 3-19 are deter-
mined from References [11] and [19], utilizing the same procedure as was
applied for agricultural fields (Section 3.2.2).
     Emission Estimates
     Table 3-20 illustrates the results of the emissions calculations.
The emissions are calculated both for the weekend period, when the substan-
tial portion of off-road travel is conducted, and for the weekdays, when
off-road activity is relatively minimal.  The average daily emission rate
for off-road cycle travel is calculated to be 54.2 tons/day.
                                   3-46

-------
   TABLE 3-18.  LOCATIONS AND LEVELS OF OFF-ROAD MOTORCYCLE ACTIVITY
Township and Range
T1S, R3W
TIN, R8E
T2N, R6E
, R7E
, R8E
T3N, R1E
T4N, R5E
, R7E
, R8E
, R10E
T6N, R1W
, R1E
, R4E
, R5E
, R6E
, R7E
Cycles/Weekend
150
300
150
150
150
300
75
150
150
300
150
150
80
80
80
80
Cycles/Weekday9
11
21
11
11
11
21
6
11
11
21
11
11
6
6
6
6
a.  Weekday activity Is assumed to be one seventh the level  of
    weekend day activity.
                                3-47

-------
TABLE 3-19. SOIL SILT CONTENTS FOR OFF-ROAD MOTORCYCLE ACTIVITY
Township and Range
T1S, R3W
TIN, R8E
T2N, R6E
, R7E
, R8E
T3N, R1E
T4N, R5E
, R7E
, R8E
, R10E
T6N, R1W
, R1E
, R4E
, R5E
, R6E
, R7E
Soil Silt Content (percent)
20-60
5-30
10-30
10-30
10-30
30-50
10-30
20-60
10-30
10-30
10-30
20-60
10-30
10-30
10-30 .
10-30
                              3-48

-------
                                     TABLE 3-20.  EMISSIONS FROM OFF-ROAD MOTORCYCLES
Township - Emission Rate
and Range Average Silt Content (%) (Lb/Veh-Mile)
T1S,
TIN,
T2N,
>
>
T3N,
T4N,
>
>
>
T6N,
>
»
»
»
>
R3W
R8E
R6E
R7E
R8E
R1E
R5E
R7E
R8E
R10E
R1W
R1E
R4E
R5E
R6E
R7E
40
17
20
20
20
40
20
40
20
20
20
40
20
20
20
20
8.1
3.4
4.1
4.1
4.1
8.1
4.1
8.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
8.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
Cycles
Per Weekend
150
300
150
150
150
300
75
150
150
300
150
150
80
80
80
80
Emissions
tons/weekend
27.3
22.9
13.8
13.8
13.8
54.6
6.9
27.3
13.8
27.7
13.8
13.8
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.4
279.1
tons/weekday
2.0
1.6
1.0
1.0
1,0
3.9
.5
2.0
1.0
1.9
1.0
1.0
.5
.-5
.5
.5
19.9
CO


UD
     NOTE:  Average motorcycle speed is 15 miles/hour
            Average mileage/cycle is 45

-------
 3.5.2  Motor Vehicles
     Because of their relatively limited mobility  (as  compared  to  dirt
bikes), the activities of four-wheel  drive vehicles  were  discovered to
be of lesser scope than motorcycles.   However,  data  on the frequency and
total number of vehicles were sadly lacking.   Only the organized functions
of the major off-road vehicle club in the area, the  Phoenix 4-Wheel Club,
could be documented.  Activities of private parties, such as hunters and
occasional weekend vacationers, could not be quantified.   As a  result,
the estimates made in this report are probably less than the actual levels.

     According to the Phoenix 4-Wheel Club [27], three locations in
Maricopa and Northern Pinal Counties are preferred - the Sycamore  Caryon
in the Tonto National Forest, the P-4 W Ranch* outside of Wickensbunj
and an area near Florence (in Pinal County).   Normally, the Club conducts
one organized trip/month, consisting of approximately 13 vehicles  ami
having an average trip length of 150 miles.  Occur ing  more frequently
are impromptu trips arranged by individuals in the Club.

     Emission Factor
     The MRI Emissions Model  [1] for vehicles on unpaved  roads  was selected
for use.   Discussions with MRI [10] resulted  in the  decision that  no adjust-
ment was required.
     Location and Level of Activity
     The location of off-road motor vehicle activity is described  on a
township basis as shown in Table 3-21.   An average weekend traffic level
of 13 vehicles per location is assumed,  as well as an  average trip length
of 150 miles.   The average speed is assumed to  be  30 miles/hour.   Weekday
traffic activity is assumed to be one seventh the  level of a weekend day.
* The Bureau of Land Management has given the Phoenix 4-Wheel Club
  (P-4W) a special permit to use this area.
                                   3-50

-------
      TABLE 3-21.   LOCATION OF OFF-ROAD FOUR WHEEL  VEHICLE ACTIVITY
                            Township and Range
                                T7N, R4W
                                T4N, R7E
                                T4S, R10E
     Soil Silt Content
     The silt content of the affected townships is presented in Table
3-22 and are determined from References [11] and [19], utilizing the same
procedure as detailed for agricultural fields (see Section 3.2.2).
     Emission Estimates

     Table 3-23 presents the emission estimates for off-road four wheel
vehicle travel.  The emissions are calculated for the weekend period, when
the major portion of off-road travel is conducted, as well as for weekdays,
when travel activity is minimal.  The average daily emission rate for off-
road four wheel vehicle travel is calculated to be 16.8 tons/day.
     The total average dust emissions associated with both off-road cycle
and four wheel vehicle activity is 71 tons/day.  Weekday emissions are
only one seventh that occuring on weekend days.  Figure 3-11 shows the dis-
tribution of emissions in the grid format, and Figure 3-12 portrays the
distribution graphically.  As indicated, dust emissions from off-road
vehicles are generally concentrated in remote areas outside of Metropolitan
Phoenix.  The uncertainty associated with the estimates of both the magni-
tude and location of the emissions is substantial.

 3.5.3  Particle Size Distributions
      It is assumed that the size distribution of emissions from off-road
 motor vehicles will be the same as for vehicles on unpaved roads:
               Particle Size (n )        Weight Percent
                      < 2                     25
                     2-30                   35
                     30 - 100                 40

                                    3-51

-------
TABLE 3-22.  SOIL SILT CONTENT IN AREAS OF OFF-ROAD FOUR WHEEL VEHICLE ACTIVITY
            Township and Range

                 T7N, R4W

                 T4N, R7E

                 T4S, R10E
Soil Silt Content

      10-30

      20-60

      30-70
       TABLE 3-23.  EMISSIONS FROM OFF-ROAD FOUR WHEEL VEHICLES
Township
and Range
T7N, R4W
T4N, R7E
T4S, R10E

Average Silt
Content (%)
20
40
50

Emission Rate
(Lb/Veh-Mile)
16.2
32.4
40.5

Emissions
(Tons/Weekend)
15.8
31.59
39.48
86.9
    Note:  Average vehicle speed is 30 miles/hour, activity is 13
          vehicles /day per township, and average trip length is
          150 miles.
                                     3-52

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GRID
CODE

 0
 1
 Z
 3
 <,
 5
 6
 7
        EC.ISS10NS
        TLNS/DAY
0.00000 TO
 .00000 10
 .00117 TO
 .00590 TO
 .01(165 TO
 .0<>553 TO
 .OS<.<.1 TO
 ,17<,90 TO
 .29636 1U
 ,*779
-------
en
      Figure  3-12.   Daily Average Dust  Emissions  from  Off-Road  Motor  Vehicle Activity,  1975.

-------
3.6   FUGITIVE DUST FROM CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES
     Construction activities inevitably result in the exposure and dis-
turbance of soil.  Fugitive dust is emitted both during the activities
(i.e., excavation, vehicle traffic, human activity) and as a result of
wind erosion over the exposed earth surfaces.   The major types of con-
struction occurring in Phoenix are flood control projects, roadway con-
struction, and residential/commercial/industrial building.
     Review of Previous Inventories
     Fugitive dust arising from construction activities in 1970 was
estimated previously by PEDCo.  Emission rates were based on a field
investigation from specific construction sites in Paradise Valley, Phoenix,
and in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The Paradise Valley site was an 80 acre residen-
tial development with a shopping center.  The Las Vegas site was a 100
acre residential development.  Particulate sampling stations were placed
at various locations surrounding the construction sites.  Measurements
of particulate levels and wind were used to solve diffusion equations for
source dust emission rates from the construction site.  The tests indicated
an average dust emission rate of 1.4 tons/acre/month from construction
sites.  This rate was applied to the number of acres of activity con-
struction during 1970 to calculate an average daily dust emission level
of 170 tons/day for Maricopa County.
     Midwest Research Institute [1] has recently reviewed the PEDCo field
experiments [2] including additional measurements from the test sites not
available for the PEDCo analysis.  The review resulted in derivation of
dust emission rates consistent with the initial findings, but slightly
lower.  An average dust emission rate of 1.2 tons/acre/month for active
construction was established.
     Methodology for the Present Inventory
     The previous studies sited above constitute the basic awareness
available for deployment in the present study.  Construction activities
should be summarized in terms of acres of soil disturbed, and the single
emission rate (1.2 tons/acre/month) is applied  to all types of active
construction to estimate total dust levels emitted.
                                    3-55

-------
     Roadway construction activities for the study area in 1975 are sum-
marized in Table 3-24.   The county, the state, and each of the cities
execute separate construction programs in the county.   Based on average
roadway clearing widths used in construction, the average area of exposed
surface is calculated as shown in Table 3-25.  ' the duration of active
construction during which the road bed is exposed soil is generally about
6 months for a major road job of one mile length and 80 feet width, and
about 2 months for each half a mile of local streets 33 feet wide [28].
Based on an average emission rate of 1.2 tons/acre/month, the dust emis-
sions arising from road construction are shown in Table 3-25.
              TABLE 3-24.   SUMMARY OF ROAD CONSTRUCTION
                           ACTIVITY IN PHOENIX AREA, 1975 [29]..
RESPONSIBLE
AGENCY
County
Phoenix
Glendale
Paradise Valley
Peoria
Mesa
Tempe
State Highway Dept
IMPROVEMENTS SUBDIVISION
(MAJOR & LOCAL (PRIVATE CON-
ROADS) STRUCTION
20.0
26.4
0
1.5
0
0
0
0
47. 9C
a' Of those roads financed
highways 80' wide, and
' Average width
' Average width
of these
of local
MILES OF ROADWAY
56.0
58.7
14.7
2.8
0
32.7
10.3
0
175. 2b'
by federal aid, 18.9
37.3 miles are 2 lane
roads is 33 feet.
and major roadways is
FEDERAL
AID
SYSTEM
15.8
3.6
0
0
0
0
0
36.8
56. 2a
miles are
highways

55 feet.
CITY
OR
COUNTY
128.7
1.4
0
.6
2.1
0
0
0
132. 8b'
4 lane
48 ft. wide.


                                    3-56

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                 TABLE 3-25.   DUST EMISSIONS ARISING DURING ACTIVE
                              CONSTRUCTION OF ROADS IN PHOENIX AREA,
AGENCY
County
Phoenix
Glendale
Paradise Valley
Peoria
Mesa
Tempe
State Highway Dept
ACRES OF SOIL EXPOSED
IN ROAD CONSTRUCTION
990
446
59
26
8
130
41
262
1952
AVERAGE DURATION
OF SOIL DISTURBANCE
2.5 months
2.9
2.0
3.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
4.0

DUST EMISSIONS
TONS/DAY ANNUAL
AVERAGE)
8.2
4.3
.4
.3
.1
.9
.3
3.5 >
18.0
     Because the magnitude of exposed soil area resulting from roadway
construction is relatively small by comparison with other fugitive dust
source areas, efforts to resolve this source spatially on the grid net-
work were limited.  Construction dust emissions for each of the cities
was allocated evenly on the emissions grid network within the entire city
boundaries, and road construction dust for the county and State Highway
Department was apportioned evenly throughout the county portion of the study
area.
     The most significant source of construction dust arises during the
building of residential/commercial/industrial structures.  Residential
housing comprises the major portion of the activity in this construction
category.  Figure  3-13 shows the distribution of housing units constructed
during 1975.  Most of the new housing was constructed around the perimeter
of urbanized Phoenix, and overall construction activity  was relatively
light in 1975.
                                    3-57

-------
i'-: (Based on Building Permits Issued January through December, 1975)
fe ,,."iV*: ./.,
^A'3-#i^$h>^-'  *:&r'   Mop Key   i
P;- 1.1^>^^V.-;^,-i;..^f;;; Total Housing Unity

iSJSJy^W^!'.  "5°°-w
                                                 District \

                                                   1   j
                                                   2   '
                                                   3   .
                                                   4
                                                   5
                                                   6
                                                   7
                                                   8
                                                   9
                                                  10
                                                  11
                                                  12
                                                  13
                                                  14
                                                  15
                                                  16
                                                  17
                                                  18
                                                  19
                                                  Total
                                                  Metro
                                                  Phoeria
                                                  1975
                                                  Total
                                                  /Metro
                                                                Single

                                                                 319
                                                                 953
                                                                 548
                                                                 552
                                                                 127
                                                                 744
                                                                  52
                                                                  37
                                                                   7
                                                                   9
                                                                   6
                                                                  39
                                                                 734
                                                                  16
                                                                 211
                                                                 513
                                                                1,184
                                                                 808
                                                                1,846
                                                  1974
                                                 Percent
• Townhouse
f 43 '
5 5
j —
\ 8
! 7
k 	
0
i 12
i -

4 	
1 —
* —
il —

» 104
'* 32
} 22
t 176
1 409
Multiple
13
9
17
440
—
10
152
20
15
95
2
—
—
21
—
14
5
30
2
845
i J
'' \
• 2,354 S 6,073
t 1
-82.6% j -86.1%
Total Units
375
967
565
1,000
134
754
204
69
22
104
8
39
734
37
211
631
1,221
860
2,024
9,959


19,707

-49.59£
                               Less than 500
          8,705


         11,280

         -22.8%

Source: Maricopa Countv Housing Study Committee, M. R. Welt Marketing
    Research, Inc.
       Figure  3-13. New Housing Units in Maricopa  County, 1975 [30].

     Recent  studies by the Maricopa County  Planning Department [31]
provide a basis  for estimating the amount of disturbed soil associated with
housing development.   One study utilizes 1970  census data to develop the
following occupancy rates for housing units.
                 Single Family Dwellings
                 Multi-family Units
                 Mobile Homes
                                                            3.45  persons
                                                            2.22
                                                            2.22
                 Weighted Average                    3.14 persons/home

Another study  [32] has  established the relationship between land use and
population  in  Maricopa  County.  Table 3-26 shows  this  relationship for
various separate land use categories.  These  land use  ratios have been
employed by the  Maricopa County Planning Department to forecast land use
allocation  consistent with population growth  projections.   The ratios were
used in the present inventory as a basis for  total  amounts of land utiliza-
tion in each of  the land use sectors for 1975.  First, residential housing
                                      3-58

-------
                   TABLE  3-26.  URBAN LAND USE RATIOS  [32].
       LAND USE CATEGORY
                           ACRES PER
                          100 PERSONS
       Single-Family
       Multi-Family
       Mobile Homes

         TOTAL RESIDENTIAL

         TOTAL COMMERCIAL

       Light Industry
       Heavy Industry
       Railroads and Public Utilities

         TOTAL INDUSTRIAL

       Streets and Alleys
       Parks and Playgrounds
       Public and Semi-Public

         TOTAL PUBLIC AND SEMI-PUBLIC
         TOTAL DEVELOPED LAND
                             5.20
                               .85
                               .20

                             6.25

                               .70

                               .55
                             '  .25
                               .40

                             1.20

                             3.45
                             2.00
                             1.40

                             6.84


                            15.00
  land use was estimated by combining the land use ratios with average
  occupancy rates, 1975 housing construction data (Figure  3-13),  and  a
  housing unit inventory compiled by M. R. West Marketing Research, Inc.
  [30].  Average acreage figures per housing unit were established by
  housing unit type as shown in Table 3-27..  These average rate figures
  were then employed to calculate disturbed soil areas associated with
  housing construction in each of the districts as shown in Table 3-28.
               TABLE 3-27.  LAND USE BY HOUSING UNIT TYPE IN MARICOPA COUNTY

Single Dwellings
Multiple Dwellings
Mobile Homes
OCCUPIED,
UNITS a>
299,300
120,000
42,000
PERSONS
PER UNIT
3.46
2.22
2.22
TOTAL PERSONS
. OCCUPING
D> DWELLINGS
1,035,000
267,000
93,200
ACRES OF
LAND USE r ACRES PER
PER PERSONC> DWELLING
.052
.0085
.0020
.242
.099
.066
a.
    Reference [30].
b.
    Reference [31].
                                                    c.
Reference [32],
                                      3-59

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             TABLE 3-28.  DUST EMISSIONS ARISING FROM CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES IN MARICOPA COUNTY, 1975.
DISTRICT ACRES OF DISTURBED SOIL DURING HOUSING CONSTRUCTION

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
a.
b.
SINGLE MULTIPLE UNITS TOTAL ALL
DWELLINGS AND MOBILE HOMES HOUSING
77 7 ' 84
232 2 234
133 2 135
134 55 189
31 1 32
180 1 181
13 19 32
9 4 13
224
2 11 13
1 01
909
178 0 178
4 -3 7
51 0 51
124 .15 139
287 5 292
196 5 ' 202
447 22 469

AVERAGE DUST EMISSIONS FROM HOUSING AND OTHER CONSTRUCTION*5'
TONS/DAY
3.1
8.6
4.9
6.9 .
1.2
6.6
1.2
.5
.1
.5
0
.3
6.5
.3
1-9
5.1
10.7
7.4
17.2-
83.0
The inventory of new mobile homes by district was not available. Therefore, mobile units
were assumed to increase to the same degree as multiple and townhouse dwellings in each of the districts.
"Other"construction land use average was estimated using historical land use ratios for the Phoenix area (Table 3-26).
The ratio of "other" land use (excepting street use) to housing land use was computed to be .85. Dust emissions were
calculated using the general emission rate 1.2 tons/month/acre of disturbed (developed) soil, applied for an average
of 6 months active construction duration.
co
i

-------
     Development of other sectors of the community associated with housing
was estimated by applying historical land use to population ratios for the
Phoenix area (Table 3-26).   These ratios indicate that for every 6.25 acres
of housing development, there is another 8.75 acres of development of various
other land use types.  Because roadway construction has already been con-
sidered previously (including both new development and improvements), this
land use category was deducted from the data base.  Consequently, it was
estimated that for each acre of housing development, there would be .85
acres of development for commercial, industrial, and public use.  This
ratio was employed to calculate the amount of land disturbed by construction
activities other than housing for each district.  Estimates of dust emissions
arising from all categories of construction activities were generated by
applying the general emission factor of 1.2 tons/month/acre of construction.
The results are shown in Table 3-28.
     The building construction emissions levels and road construction  ',
emissions levels were assigned to the computerized emission grid network
by district areas as shown in Figure 3-13.  A grid network overlay was
used to accomplish the appropriate allocations.  Construction activities
in the Final County portion of the study area were neglected in the
analysis because of their relative insignificance in 1975.  Figure 3-14
presents the grid map of fugitive dust emissions from construction activi-
ties, and Figure 3-15 portrays graphically the distribution of construc-
tion dust emissions in the study area for 1975.  The magnitude of dust
loading from construction activity is substantial, and is generally
distributed most heavily in the growth belt around the urban region of
Phoenix.  It should be noted that land use development during 1975 was greatly
below the expectations reflected in the county planning forecasts, and represented
the lowest dip in a recent decline of construction activity over the past several
years.  This pattern is expected to reverse sharply in 1976 and future years.
Hence 1975 is probably non-representative with respect to dust emissions load-
ings occurring from construction.
     The particle size distribution of construction dust emissions are expected
to approximate that of the parent soil [33].  The predominant soil types in Maricopa
County yield the following particle size distribution based on shallow core
tests [11]:

                                    3-61

-------
SB JO
CDUE

 0
 1
 2
 3
0.00000
 .00000
       tPISSIDNS
       ILNS/D4Y
      IL
      TO
.oou-j^ rc
.002<
-------
GO
I
Ot
oo
    Figure 3-15.  Average Dally Dust Emissions  from Construction Activities, 1975.

-------
          Rillito-Gunsight - Pinal           Gilman-Estrella-Avondale
<2y
2-20
20-50
>50
5%
10
17
68
<2p
2-20y
20-74
>74
7%
20
35
38
Since the construction emission factor was developed for particles of 30
micron diameter and less, only the particle size below 30 micron is rele-
vant in the discussion here.   The expected aerosol  distribution for parti-
cles smaller than 30 micron will  be approximated based on an averaging of
the particle size distribution of the two predominant soil types.   The
resulting size distribution for the emissions is as follows:
                  <2y               21%
                  2-20              54
                  20-30             25

3.7  ENTRAPMENT OF DUST OFF PAVED ROADS
     Until recently, only limited consideration had been directed to
the analysis of fugitive dust sources on paved roads.  Studies in Chicago
[34] demonstrated that suspension of street dust contributed to substantial
levels of suspended particulates.  Increasing evidence that street dust
exerts a significant influence on air quality is leading to efforts to
quantify this fugitive emission source.  Midwest Research Institute has
recently completed a study[35] to  evaluate the dust,emission rate from streets
and to parametize the influence factors affecting this rate.  This general
dust emissions model represents the most direct and complete attempt to
quantify street dust emissions to date, and will be employed in the
present study.  The model gives the emission level as

                                    3-64

-------
                e  =  KLS
     where      k  =  15 x  10"  ,  an  empirical  proportionality  factor
                L  =  street  surface dust  load,  g/curbed mile  of
                    road.
                S  =  silt  content of surface  dust
                    (usually  about .10).
      The  dust loadings  on a  given  roadway may vary significantly depending
 on  several  factors.   Rain or street  sweeping may  reduce dust  loadings to
 negligible  levels  for short  periods.  Accumulation of materials to an
 equilibium  level after  the washouts  occurs rapidly,  usually within 2 or
 3 days.   Equilibium  is  attained more rapidly after street cleaning, since
-often the cleaning process is only moderately effective.  After rainfall,
 carry-over  of mud  collected  under  motor  vehicles  occurs at varying rates
 for several  days until  an equilibrium of street dust levels is attained/
 The equilibrium attainment rate has  also been found  to increase rapidly
 with higher vehicle  speeds.
      Street dust loadings for the  Phoenix area are shown in Table 3-29.
 The limited number of measurements,  and  the lack  of  a definitive pattern
 of  dust loads relative  to street types does not warrant development of a
 separate  emission  rate  for different street types in the present study.
 A weighted  average of 780 Ib/curb  mile was selected  as a representative
 dust loading for the entire  population of curbed  road types in Phoenix.
 Based on  a  study by  American Public  Works [36], the  dust load level was
 increased by a -factor of four for  uncurbed streets.
      Based  on the  appreciable proportion of unpaved  road shoulders in
 metropolitan Phoenix, it is  not unlikely that dust suspension off city
 streets would contribute greatly to  the  ambient particulate problem.
 There are 470 miles  of  city  streets  with unpaved  shoulders in the city.
 Over half of these roads are major streets experiencing substantial
 traffic volumes.   The ratio  of uncurbed  to curbed roads in the various
 unincorporated cities was assumed  to be  equivalent to that in the city
 of  Phoenix.   The county roadway system is comprised  of approximately
                                    3-65

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        TABLE 3-29.  DUST LOADS ;ON STREET SURFACES OF PHOENIX [35],
Land Use

Residential
low/old/single
low/old/multi
med/new/single
med/old/multi
Industrial
light
Medi um
Commercial
central business area
Shopping center
Overall weighted mean
Loading
Site #1
770
1900
180
310
450
1300
210
640
650
Intensity (Ib/curb
Site #2
1600
1100
380
500
260
1100
200
180
910
mile)
Mean
1185
1500
280
405
355
1200
205
410

95% uncurbed streets.  There is an active city street sweeping program,
including cleaning of major streets every 10 days,  collectors every 2
weeks, and local roads once monthly.  However, this program is only
marginally effective with respect to controlling entrained dust levels,
due to rapid deposition of surface dust which produces equilibrium levels
of road materials within 2 or 3 days.
                                   3-66

-------
     The silt content of the street surface dust load is controlled
                                              /
within a relatively narrow range by the mechanism of deposition-
reentrainment equilibrium.  Coarse dust aggregates are continuously
being pulverized into finer particles which become suspended by traffic
activity, and additional aggregates are continuously deposited on the
roadway by vehicle carry over, dustfall from adjacent sources, motor
vehicle exhaust, and tire and brake wear.   Measurements have shown
that the silt content of street surface dust is from 5 to 15% for a
wide range of street and traffic conditions [37].  A value of 10% silt
was assumed to be representative for Phoenix street dust.
Emission Estimates
     The emission factors for resuspended dust off paved streets in
Phoenix were calculated using the MRI model.  They are:
            Curbed roads      5.3 g/vehicle mile
            Uncurbed roads   21.2 g/vehicle mile
These factors were applied to traffic volumes for each curbed and uncurbed
link of the transportation link network in the study area.  However,
because the transportation tape does not identify the curbed or noncurbed
status of the various road types, it was necessary to develop an overall
weighted emission factor to be applied to the three major street categories
(local, collector, major).  The factor is weighted according to the
proportion of miles of curbed to noncurbed streets as shown below.  Local
roads were omitted from consideration due to the insignificance of traffic
volume on these streets relative to the total area VMT.
Street Type
Major and Collector
Total Miles
in City
900
Total Uncurbed
Miles in City
329
Weighted Emission
Factor for 1975
11.1 g/vehicle mil
     Emissions calculated for each link were assigned to grid squares of
the study area grid network by means of the TRW emissions simulator soft-
ware.  The simulator operates on a computer tape of 1975 transportation
link data (including designation for city and county roads) provided by
the Arizona Department of Transportation.  The software operations are
                                   3-67

-------
essentially the same as those employed to estimate  conventional  motor
vehicle source emissions (see Section 2.0).
     Figure 3-16 illustrates the gridded emission inventory  for
entrained street dust.  The magnitude of these dust emissions  is
significant, especially considering they are concentrated  within
the urbanized areas where other major fugitive sources,  i.e.,  unpaved
roads, agricultural) are absent.  The distribution  of the  resuspended
dust emissions is shown graphically in Figure 3-17.

     The particle size distribution of the suspended street  dust is
given by MRI [35].
                     < 5^          40%
                    5-30^          60%'
                                   3-68

-------
CD 10
CMf
EMISSIONS
TONS/DAY
0.00000
.00000
.00389
.01970
.06227
.19202
.31523
.58401
.99630
l.»9)»7
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
.00000
.03369
.01970
.06227
.15202
.31523
.58
-------

Figure 3-17.  Average Daily Street Dust Emissions Entrained by Motor Vehicles on Paved Streets,  1975,

-------
                    REFERENCES  FOR  SECTION  3.0
 1.    Midwest Research  Institute,  "Development  of  Emission  Factors  for
      Fugitive Dust Sources,"  prepared  for  the  Environmental Protection
      Agency, Office of Air Quality  Planning  and Standards,  Research
      Triangle Park, North  Carolina,  June 1974.

 2.    PEDCo Environmental Specialists,  Inc.,  "Investigation  of  Fugitive
      Dust, Volume I -  Sources,  Emissions and Control,"  prepared  for the
      Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of Air Quality Planning and
      Standards,  Research Triangle Park, North  Carolina, June 1974.

 3.    "Air Pollution from Unpaved  Roads," a research paper  by the School
      of Engineering, University of  New Mexico, January  12,  1971.

 4.    Hoover, J.  M. "Surface Improvement and  Dust  Palliation of Unpaved
      Secondary Roads and Streets,"  Final Report,  by Engineering  Research
      Institute,  Iowa State University, ERI Project 856-S,  submitted to
      the Iowa State Highway Commission, July 1973.

 5.    Anderson, C., "Air. Pollution from Dusty Roads,"  as presented  at the
      17th Annual Highway Engineering Conference,  1 April 1971.

 6.    Roberts, J. W., et. al,  "Cost  and Benefits of Road Dust Control in
      Seattle's Industrial  Valley,"  JAPCA,  Vol. 25, No.  9,  September 1975.

 7.    Arizona Department of Transportation, personal communication, March
      1976.

 8.    Maricopa County Highway Department, personal communication, March
      1976.

 9.    Maricopa Association  of Governments,  personal communication,  March
      1976.

10.    Dr. Chatten Cowherd  , Midwest  Research  Institute,  personal  communi-
      cation, March 1976.

11.    U. S. Department  of Agriculture,  Soil Conservation Service, "General
      Soil Map, Maricopa County, Arizona,"  Portland, Oregon, 1973.

12.    U. S. Department  of Agriculture,  Soil Conservation Service, "Soil
      Survey - Eastern  Maricopa  and  Northern  Pinal Counties  Area, Arizona,"
      Washington, D. C., 1974.

13.    U. S. Department  of Agriculture,  Soil Conservation Service, "Soil
      Survey Laboratory Data and Description  for Some  Soils  of  Arizona,"
      Soil Survey Investigations Report No. 28, August 1971.
                                   3-71

-------
14.    Turner,  D.  B.,  "Workbook  of Atmospheric Dispersion Estimates,"
      U.  S.  Department of Health Education  and Welfare, Public Health
      Service, National  Air Pollution  Control Administration, Cincinnati,
      Ohio,  1969.

15.    Arizona  Department of Transportation,  Planning Survey Group,  "Status
      of the Road Systems Mileage,"  June  1975.

16.    Maricopa County Agricultural Agent, personal communication, April
      1976.

17.    Arizona  Crop and Livestock Reporting  Service,"Cropland Atlas  of
      Arizona," Phoenix, Arizona, October 1974.

18.    Arizona  Crop and Livestock Reporting  Service, "1974 Arizona Agri-
      cultural Statistics," Bulletin S-10,  Phoenix, Arizona, March  1975.

19.    U.  S.  Department of Agriculture, Soil  Conservation Service, "General
      Soil Map, Pinal County, Arizona," Portland, Oregon, 1972.

20.    U.  S.  Environmental Protection Agency, "Compilation of Air Pollutant
      Emission Factors," Publication AP-42, Office of Air and Water Pro-
      grams, Research Triangle  Park, North  Carolina, April 1973.

21.   U. S. Forest Service, Phoenix, Arizona, personal  communication,
      May, 1976.

22.   Bureau of Land Management,  U.  S. Department of  Interior,  personal
      communication, May, 1976.

23.   Phoenix City Parks and Recreation Department, personal communication,
      May, 1976.

24.   Glendale City Parks and  Recreation  Department,  personal communica-
      tion, May, 1976.

25.   American Motorcycle Association, Phoenix,  Arizona, personal commun-
      ication, May, 1976.

26.   Tonto National  Forest Service, Phoenix, Arizona,  personal communica-
      tion, May, 1976.

27.   Phoenix  4-Wheel Club, personal communication, May, 1976.

28.    City of  Phoenix Department of  Traffic  Engineering, personal communica-
      tion,  May 1976.

29.    State of Arizona Highway  Department,  personal communication,  April
      1976.

30.    Phoenix  Newspapers, Inc., "Inside Phoenix  1976,"  1976.


                                    3-72

-------
31.  Maricopa County Planning and Zoning Department, "Data for School
     Planning," April 1973.

32.  Maricopa County Planning Department, "A Report Upon Future General
     Land Use for Maricopa County, Arizona," February 1975.

33.  Gillette, D, and BUfford, I, National  Center for Atmospheric Research,
     "The Influence of Wind 2elocity on the  Size Distribution of Aerosols
     Generated by the Wind Erosion of Soils," Journal  of Geophysical  Re-
     search.  September 20,  1974.

34.  Harrison, P., Draftz, R. and W.H. Murphy, "Identification and Impact
     of Chicago's Ambient Suspended Dust," Paper submitted to Atmospheric
     Environment, 1974.

35.  Midwest Research Institute, "Quantification of Dust Entrainment  from
     Paved Roadways," final  report draft, prepared for Environmental  Pro-
     tection Agency, March 1976.

36.  American Public Works Association, "Water Pollution Aspects of Urban
     Runoff," Chicago, 1969.

37.  Chatten Cowherd, Midwest Research Institute, personal communication,
     May 1976.
                                    3-73

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              4.0  BASEYEAR WINDBLOWN FUGITIVE EMISSIONS

     In dry regions where large amounts of exposed earth are prevalent,
entrainment of soil particles by force of wind may contribute signifi-
cantly to total suspended particulate levels.   The magnitude of windblown
dust emissions varies dramatically with climate.   Subsequently, the
importance of windblown dust changes seasonally.   Table 4-1  summarizes
the dust emissions levels estimated to have occurred during  the baseyear
(1975).  Of the five windblown dust sources investigated, only two are
of major importance.  Dust blowing from the undisturbed desert and from
disturbed soils in and near the metropolitan area account for about one
fourth of the total particulate emissions estimated for 1975.  Emissions
from the desert are substantial because of the vast amounts  of this
source that exist around the urban areas.  Windblown dust from disturbed
soil areas (vacant lots, parking lots, dirt residence yards) are sub-
stantial because of both the suspendable nature of the disaggregated
surface soils, and the vast amounts of disturbed soil surfaces through-
out the study area.  Windblown dust emissions  from agricultural fields
are estimated to be relatively insignificant because of the  consolidated
structure of the irrigated soils and their subsequent resistance to
suspension by wind.
     The seasonal variation of windblown dust  levels is shown clearly
in Table 4-1.  The combined effect of temperature, precipitation and
wind speed produced progressively greater forces of soil wind erosion
during each successive quarter of 1975.  However, this pattern is
atypical, as the second and third quarters usually produce the conditions
causing greatest wind erosion.  Also (as will  be shown in Section 4.2
and later in Section 5.0), climatic conditions during 1975 were con-
ducive to levels of wind erosion approximately three times as great as
that corresponding to "typical" conditions.
     The windblown dust emissions are inventoried spatially  according
to the grid network described previously in Section 2.0.  Figure 4-1
presents the gridded emission inventory for total windblown  fugitive
dust emissions for the baseyear.  Figure 4-2 is a graphical  portrayal
of the emissions grid.  It can be seen that dust emissions caused by

                                   4-1

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                  TABLE 4-1.   WINDBLOWN FUGITIVE DUST
                   IN PHOENIX STUDY AREA,  TONS/DAY.
SOURCE
CATEGORY
Agricultural fields
Unpaved Roads
Undisturbed Desert
Tailings Piles
Disturbed Soil
1st
QUARTER
4.1
1.4
160
1.4
161
2nd
QUARTER
4.0
2.1
244
1.4
248
3rd
QUARTER
3.8
2.7
321
1.4
323
4th
QUARTER
4.0
3.8
450
1.4
456
ANNUAL
4.0
2.5
294
1.4
297
TOTAL                  328        500        652        915        599
wind erosion are most prevalent in the northern suburbs of the metro-
politan area, where there are vast areas of undisturbed desert as well
as disturbed vacant lands.
     The physical mechanisms causing entrainment of soils by wind are
not fully understood, and empirical data describing the atmospheric-
surface exchange of soil particles is relatively limited.  Accordingly,
methodology now available to estimate windblown dust levels is somewhat
crude.  The methodology currently in practice involves simplified versions
of the wind erosion equation, adapted to include a suspension factor
for the portion of eroded soil which is entrained.  Section 4.1 describes
the general methodology of the wind erosion model employed in the esti-
mates of this study.  Section 4.2 through 4.6 document the specific
assumptions and procedures utilized to generate emissions estimates for
the various sources identified in the study.
                                   4-2

-------
                                                                                   Z 2  I t (Np
                                                                                   Z Z  2 Z 0/>
                                                                                        2 I/O
  GRID
  CODE

  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
    EMISSIONS
    TONS/DAY
0.0
0.0
    TO
    TO
0.003 TO
0.01 TO
0.04
0.11
0.23
0.42
0.72
1.10
    TO
    TO
    TO
    TO
    TO
    TO
0.0
0.003
0.01
0.04
0.11
0.23
0.42
0.72
1.10
1.70
Figure 4-1.   Fugitive  Dust  Emissions  Arising  from Wind Erosion,
                Average Dally  Emissions, 1975.
                                        4-3

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Figure 4-2.  Emissions of Fugitive Dust Arising
            from Wind Erosion, Average Daily
            Emissions, 1975.

-------
4.1  GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR PRESENT INVENTORY
     Only limited attention has been directed to the understanding of dust
suspension resulting from wind erosion of soils.  In a recent literature
survey of available methods of estimating soil entrainment [1], Midwest
Research Institute concluded a most appropriate method of estimating wind
blown soil emissions would involve use of wind erosion relationships
developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.  It was evident that the
horizontal movement of soils is caused by the same factors which affect
suspension of the soils.  However, the exact mechanisms causing entrain-
ment of the soils is only recently being fully understood.  The quantifi-
cation of these mechanisms (direct aerodynamic entrainment and surface
sand blasting) for application in air pollution studies will  not be avail-
able in the short term.  It appears the best approach at present is to
assign a suspension rate to the horizontal soil movement as determined by
the established wind erosion equations.  This approach has been used
recently in studies concerning control of fugitive dust emissions.
     The most relevant treatment of the wind erosion equation for the pre-
sent study is provided by the recent MRI review of fugitive dust sources [1],
This is a simplified version of the basic wind erosion equation, given by

                              ES = AIKCL'V

where:        E  = suspended particulate fraction of soil wind erosion
                  losses, tons/acre/year
             A  = portion of total wind erosion losses that would be
                  measured as suspended particulate
             I  = soil credibility, tons/acre/year
             K  = surface roughness factor,  dimensionless
             C  = climatic factor, dimensionless
             L1  = unsheltered field width factor,  dimensionless
             V  = vegetative cover factor,, dimensionless.
     The variable of greatest uncertainty in the adopted wind erosion
relationship is the suspension factor A.  Only limited data are available
to characterize the mechansim of soil particle suspension generated by the
wind erosion of soils.  Qualitatively, it is known that the suspension
                                    4-5

-------
rate depends on the soil structure and the wind speed.   Two aspects of
soil structure are important:   1)  the distribution of particle sizes, and
2) the aggregate structure of the  soil.   Gillette [4]  showed that increased
agitation of the soil disconsolidated the silt-sized  soil  aggregates, and
caused increased concentrations of suspended soil dust for a given wind
velocity.  The undisturbed desert  soil surfaces are generally composed of
silt aggregate and a thin crust of gravel and sand.  This  crust is easily
disaggregated.  Human activities in the open desert disturb the soil  con-
solidation and produce soil surface susceptible to suspension by wind.
The high credibility of these disturbed soils results in a higher fraction
of suspended particles from the mass of eroding soil.   Agitation of soil
can also occur from the mechanism  of wind erosion itself.   Gillette
observed that the dominant mechanism of fine soil wind erosion and sus-
pension is sandblasting of the soil surface once soil  movement has begun.
Soil movement begins to occur at a threshold wind speed determined by the
degree of consolidation of the soil surface.  At higher wind speeds,  sand-
blasting of the surface releases soil fines and a greater  proportion of
the moving soil mass becomes suspended.
     The traditional concern in wind erosion studies  involves quantifica-
tion of soil losses, mostly for agricultural purposes.   The objectives of
these studies do not concern the issue of soil suspension.  Consequently,
very little empirical data has been obtained to establish  the relationship
of the suspension ratio of eroded  soil with wind speed and soil type.  In
some of the earlier experiments, Chepil[3] estimated that 3-to-40% of
soil movement is in suspension.  In a recent study, Gillette [4] measured
the vertical flux of particles (<20y) associated with a sand flux in
horizontal movement by wind erosion and found the fraction of suspended
                           _5
particles to vary from 2x10   to .019 depending on soil type and wind
velocity.  For higher wind velocities, the Gillette experiments give a
low value for vertical particulate fluxes as only the 2 to lOpdiameter range
were measured.  Since parent soils generally contain  the greatest
portion of particles greater than  50u in size, the suspension fraction
may be appreciably greater than that measured, particularly when
                                   4-6

-------
wind speeds are sufficient to support suspension of larger particles.
Gillette has shown airborne particle distributions are relatively inde-
pendent of wind speed for particles far in excess of 20u diameter [7].  Fig-
ure 4-3 shows this relationship for soil particles at several wind speeds
for particle sizes up to 30^ radius.  Figure 4-4 illustrates the suspension/
settling characteristics for particles of different sizes as a function of
wind speed.
     Shinn has formulated a model to estimate vertical dust flux [8].  The
model depends on parameters which should be determined for a given region,
and Shinn suggests a general index for dry nonvegetated sites similar to
that studied in the investigation.  The model relates soil emissions
to frictional wind velocity as follows:
                            F = F
 The  coefficients F  and y are determined by the soil surface properties,
 and  Shinn  suggests the values are related to the soil errodibility index
 accordings to  the characterization of Figure 4-5.  y is shown to increase
 to values  of 7 or 8 for soils of high errodibility.  The GMX data shown
                       010
                              RADIUS (MICRONS)
             Figure 4-3.  Size Distributions of Aerosols
                          Obtained During Soil-Blowing
                          Wind Tunnel Experiments,
                          Friction Velocities were 11,
                          113,12,97,13,74ym/sec [7],
                                     4-7

-------
200 r-
                           6       8        10       12
                           REFERENCE WIND SPEED (mph)
                Figure  4-4.   Particle Settling/Suspension Regimes  [1].
                                  4-8

-------
                                200   400    600    000   1000
                                    Soil erodibitity index
                   Figure.4-5.  The effect of Soil  Errodibility Index
                                 on Reference Dust  Flux  F   and the Power
                                frof the Shinn-Gillette     Dust Model [8],
in Figure  4-5  involved  tests  on  the  Nevada  desert.   The surface was
undisturbed desert pavement exhibiting  many pebbles and a crust surface
with around 10% desert  shrub  cover 60 in. high.   The parametrized form
of the model at the Nevada site  is:
              F =  .73 V.
                        3.1
               mg/m sec    ton/acre/day
         where V* = frictional wind velocity
     Midwest Research Institute [9] has recently  developed  an emission
factor for wind-suspended dust based on the wind  erosion  equation:
where
                           E =  .0089
                                       esV
                                      (PE/50)'
E = emissions of suspended dust in tons/acre/year
e = Soil credibility in tons/acre/year
s = percent silt content of surface soil
                                    4-9

-------
             f = fraction of time wind exceeds the threshold value
                 for wind erosion (12 mph)
             V = mitigative fractional reduction in wind erosion
                 due to vegetative cover
            PE = Thornthwaite's Precipitation-Evaporation Index.
This  version assumes a constant fraction of the eroded soil is suspended,
and bases  the value of the constant on data from Gillette findings.  A
significant modification to the wind erosion equation concerns MRI treat-
ment  of the wind speed term.   In the traditional use of the wind erosion
equation,  wind speed was considered in calculating the climatic factor,
entering as U  in  this term.   In the above version, dust emissions are not
related to wind speed, except  as the fraction f represents the extent of
time  to which the  threshold wind speed is exceeded.
      PEDCO [2] compared estimates derived from wind erosion equation
applications to field test results and found fair agreement when assuming
a  constant 10% suspension ratio for wind-blown soils on unpaved dirt roads.
It should  be noted that PEDCO  assumed a rather high errodibility index
(77 ton/acre/year) for the soil surfaces of dirt roads.  This index was
based on silt measurements of  the native soils of the area and is not
representative of  the true errodibility of unpaved road surfaces in the
study area (see Section 3.1).  For agricultural cropland soil erosion
emissions, PEDCO assumed a 2.5% suspension rate.  Dust emissions calcu-
lated from the wind erosion equation were apparently in agreement with those
actually measured  in the field.
     Table 4-2  provides a comparison of suspension rates  derived from results
of  the  investigations discussed above.   The suspension factors have been
derived by calculating the ratio of measured suspensed dust and calculated
horizontal soil  movement (based on the wind erosion equation).  For the
Gillette experiments, an additional  "actual" factor can be calculated, since
measurements of both horizontal and vertical, flux were performed during the
study.  Excepting the estimates from the Shinn Model, the range of cal-
culated suspension factors (ratio of measured emissions to calculated wind
erosion losses)  varies  from  .6% to  6.7%.    The anomolous  htgh fluxes
and suspension  factors  calculated  from  the  Shinn Model  apparently
                                   4-10

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TABLE 4-2.  FRACTION OF SOIL LOSSES SUSPENDED, AS DERIVED FROM AVAILABLE TEST RESULTS






Erosion -
Horizontal Flux
as measured(tons/
acre/year)
Soil Erosion, as
calculated from
soil erosion
equation (tons/
acre/yr.)
Vertical Flux
of soil particles
(tons/acre/yr)
Suspension
Fraction
(vertical flux/
soil erosion)
Soil Character-
ization






GILLETTE


Wind Speed
= 14 mph


1300
(Measured)


3460b




20
(measured)
.015(actual)
.006


Previously
Cultivated
cropland,
follow for
several years
and partially
covered with
grass.



ulind Speed
= 14 mph


151,000
(Measured)


2540




22
(Measured)
.0001 (Actual)
.009


Previously
cultivated
cropland
follow for
several years



SHINN GILLETTE d
/ v*\Y
~°w
Wind Speed
= 14 mph






16. la




24.7
(Calculated)
1.54



Undisturbed
desert pave-
ment








Wind Speed
= 6 mph






1.27a




1.76
(Calculated)
1.39



Undisturbed
desert pave-
ment





MR I
2
E- 00£0esv(5° )f
C * UVJOj
PE2
Average wind speed
=7.8 mph (46% of
time exceeding
6 mph)c




2.77a'd




.051
(Calculated)
.018



Undisturbed
desert pave-
ment





PEDCO


Wind Speed « 6 mph






90




6.0
(Measured/
Calculated)
.067 .025



Dirt roads Agricultural
fields






a based on soil characteristics assumed to be representative of Arizona or Nevada desert pavement.
b based on soil data reported by Gillette [4].
c these conditions correspond to meteorology observed in Phoenix during 1975.
d soil erosion loss is calculated here for the single average wind speed of 7.8 mph.

-------
reflect the interference of local  fugitive sources reported to occur
[24] during the field flux measurements,  and do not appear to be repre-
sentative of potential  dust levels blowing off undisturbed desert pavement.
     There is evidence (Gillette,  Shfnn)  that the  suspension factor varies
inversely wtth the soil errodtbtitty tndex, dtrectly with the soil
errodibility  index,  and directly with wind  speed [4,8].  This would sug-
gest  that  suspended  soil  losses should be estimated utilizing probability
functions  for wind speed, and unique parameters associated with the soil
types.  However,  only  inexact and tentative parametrizations  (such as the
Shinn-Gillette model)  are available at this time.  For general applications,
it  does not appear that the present state-of-art can be used to support
emission parametrizations more precisely than previous attempts. That is,
emissions  should  still be calculated by assuming a certain constant fraction
of  the soil erosion  losses (as calculated by the wind erosion equation) are
suspended.  This  approach, should however, reflect representative and current
data.  Accordingly,  the following suspension factors were proposed for use
in  the present study:

        Soil Surface Category                      Dust Suspension Factor
   Croplands                                              .025
   Unpaved dirt roads                                 .009 to .067
   Undisturbed desert pavement                            ^018
   Disturbed native soil  (parking                      .009 to .067
   lots, residence yards,  excava-
   tion clearnings)

      The selected range of the suspension factor for unpaved dirt roads
reflects the Texas test results (Gillette), as well as, measurements con-
ducted for dirt roads  in  the Southwest desert areas by PEDCO.   Because
the Gillette  experiments  were not concerned with measuring  flux for
particles  > 20n diameter, the suspension  rate  .009 is probably an under-
statement  of  the  expected suspended soil  losses.   Figure 4-4  shows that
for wind  speeds of 10  mph (within standard  variance of average wind in
Phoenix),  particles  up to 40u diameter remain suspended  Indefinitely.
Therefore, it would  not be unexpected that  total soil emissions be
                                   4-12

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 substantially greater than  those  measured  for the  range  d < 20p .   On  the
 other hand,  evidence  from numerous  studies  [1,9] indicate  the  suspension
 fraction of  .067 derived  from PEDCO may  be  high.   Adjustment for  each
 extreme of the range  for  the  unpaved road  suspension  factor suggests
 that a median value between .009  and .067 be  used  for the  present inventory.
 This value will  be applied  to other soil surfaces  which  experience dis-
 turbance, s.uch as unpaved parking lots,  private residence yards,  and
 cleared vacant lots.
    The suspension rate corresponding to estimates  of dust emissions using
the MRI model  appears to be most consistent with an expected value which
would apply for wind blown dust off undisturbed desert.  However, for
greater wind velocities, the calculated suspension  rate of the soil  erosion
losses  (MRI derived vertical  flux/horizontal soil movement calculated by
wind erosion equation) decreases, since the MRI model does not depend on
a power term of wind velocity as does the wind erosion equation.  Since
it is not  clear that the confidence associated with estimates derived
from the model is greater than that obtained with the coupling of a
suspension factor and the wind erosion equation, the latter emissions
estimating procedure was employed, and a constant suspension factor of
 .018 was adopted.  Section 4.4 describes this selection in further detail.

     The  PEDCO suspension estimate appears to be the most representative
value which may be assigned for calculation of suspended agricultural soils.
      There is presently limited data available to  confirm the suspension
factors selected for this study.  Moreover, it is unlikely that the  con-
cept of suspension factor will be appropriate as further investigations
are  performed.  What is needed are a series of parameterized relation-
ships directly describing the vertical flux of soil particles.   In the
absence of such information,  the crude assumptions  identified above  were
utilized  as the basis for estimating the.suspendable portion of wind
erosion losses.
       In  contrast to the difficulty in evaluating reasonable values  for the
factor A, the procedure for employing  the  remaining  portion of the MRI
version of the wind  erosion  equation is well-established.   The  remaining
                                   4-13

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parameters comprise the major elements of the basic equation which is a
result of 30 years of research to determine the primary factors that
influence erosion of soil by wind.  In the following sections of this
chapter, area-specific values for the various factors are developed and
utilized to calculate wind erosion losses and suspended dust emissions.
Seasonal emissions are estimated for each square of a spatial grid network
designed to enclose a 120 km by 120 km area around the urban center of
Phoenix.  The gridded emissions inventory is computerized for convenience
of emission calculations, presentation, and for expedient evaluation of
emission control alternatives later in the project.

4.2    WINDBLOWN EMISSIONS OFF UNPAVED ROADS
     Two mechanisms are responsible for dust generation from unpaved
roads.  First, soil particles are injected into the atmosphere by forces
of wheels and air currents from motor vehicle traffic.   Second, soil
particles are injected into the atmosphere when movement of the soil  by
wind action occurs.  The former pick-up mechanism has been the subject of
considerable interest in most fugitive dust studies, while wind-blown
dust from unpaved roads has seldom been addressed.   Depending on soil
type, meteorology, and vehicle traffic, fugitive dust emissions fromwind
erosion of unpaved roads may be a significant cause of suspended particu-
late levels.
Review of Previous Inventories
     Of those studies reviewed by MRI, only the PEDCO investigation has
included an estimate of dust emissions arising from wind erosion on
unpaved roads.  In that study, wind-blown dust was assessed to contribute
about 42% of all dust suspended from unpaved roads.  Emission values were
estimated by utilizing the theory of the wind erosion equation and region-
specific data for meteorology, soil, and the unpaved roads.  The wind
erosion equation calculations were validated by relating 24-hour and
48-hour hi-vol field test values to a continuous line source air dif-
fusion equation with the unknown term as the emission rate.  The sus-
pended wind erosion losses from unpaved roads in Phoenix was estimated to
be 3.0 tons/acre/year.  Based on average traffic counts and vehicle miles
                                   4-14

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traveled, PEDCO expressed the wind blown emission rate as 1.54 Ib/vehicle
mile.
Methodology for the Present Inventory
     Wind-blown dust emissions from the unpaved road network were esti-
mated for each of the designated  county  maintenance or township areas
(described previously in Section  3.0)   by assigning area specific values
to the variables of the MRI form of the wind erosion equation.  Two basic
road types are considered:  gravel and  dirt.  The configuration of each
type is assumed to be equivalent, but the soil characteristics of each type
were distinguisable by maintenance areas or townships.  The following
discussion relates the procedures employed to assemble representative
values of the erosion equation parameters, as well as, total emission
estimates.
      Soil errodibility of the unpaved road surfaces was determined by
relating  silt content of  the road surface to errodibility as shown in
Figure 4-6.  The value presented  represents the potential soil loss in
tons/acre/year from a wide, unsheltered, isolated field with a bare,
smooth, non-crusted surface.  The silt content of the roads throughout
the  study area was determined by  actual measurements as described in
Section 3.1.  Table 4-3 summarizes the silt content and errodibility of
roads located in the predominant  soil associations in the study area.
As indicated, the silt content of soils on  unpaved roads reaches an
equilibrium value substantially less than that of the native soil.
Consequently, roadway .surfaces are generally relatively resistant to
wind erosion.  The data of Table  4-3 and a  general soil map [6] were em-
ployed to assign a representative errodibility value to the unpaved
roads in  each of the roadway maintenance or township areas.  The unit
of spatial resolution (maintenance and township areas) was  selected
based on  the  format in which roadway data was available (see Section 3.1).

     The  surface roughness factor  K  for dirt roads was assumed to be
1.0.  It  is not expected that the limited number of ridges worn in dirt
roads would affect the value of K significantly..
                                   4-15

-------
 S-
 >*>
 o
 C/l
 £Z
 O
-o
o
s_
o
oo
      teo
      -160	
                                                                  : ico
      Percentage of Dry Soil Aggregates  Greater than 84y Diameter
      Figure 4-6.  Soil Erodibility as  a  Function of Particle Size [1]
                                  4-16

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                   TABLE 4-3.  ERRODIBILITY OF UNPAVED
                       ROAD SURFACES IN PHOENIX AREA.
Silt Content .
Soil Type Of Road Surface ,%D
Gilman-Estrella-
Avondale
Mohal-Contine
Ebon-Pi nai mt-Tremant
Rock Outcrop
Gravel Road
27.2
14.2
23.3
12.4
12.0
Silt Content9 of
Native Soil,%
55-80
55-80
15-45
10-30
-
trrodiaDi iity ot
Road Surface0
Tons/Acre/Yr.
8
0
5
0
0
a.  Silt content is defined as the percentage (by weight)  of soil  particles
    less than 75y in diameter.
b.  Determined from field tests conducted by TRW in May 1976.
c.  Determined by relating measured silt content to errodibility according
    to Figure 4-6.  The measured silt level  (particles  smaller than 75n )
    was assumed to approximate closely the parameter used  in Figure 4-6
    to determine errodibility (% of particles smaller than 84y).

      The climatic factor C was calculated to reflect seasonal  variations
 in temperature, precipitation, and average  wind speeds for the  Phoenix
 area.  While it is recognized that the wind erosion equation  has  been
 derived for annual averages, it is also evident that seasonal  variations
 in meteorology will  affect wind erosion in  the short-term. This  effect
 was accounted for by calculating "seasonal  climatic factors"  and  inserting
 these values in the wind erosion equation to forecast  seasonal  wind
 erosion levels.  Table 4-4 summarizes the tabulation of seasonal  factors
 for 1975 and for long-term historical meteorology for  the area.  The
 differences between factors in 1975 and those based on annual  average
 climate are due to the transient moisture content of the  soil  and the
 changing magnitude of wind speed.   Soil moisture content  is determined
 by the cumulative balance between precipitation and evaporation.   The
Thornthwaite Precipitation  Evaporation  Index  (PE  Index) was formulated to
express  this net moisture  exchange  between  soil and  atmosphere.  The index
is  a  measure of cumulative  moisture balance  over  the past  12 month  period.
Table 4-4 shows that moisture  content  in  the  Phoenix area  was highly
variable  during 1975 as  low rainfall  and  high  temperature  caused the
                                     4-17

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PE Index to diminish from 8.8 in the first quarter to  5.3  in  the last
quarter.  Average wind speeds were also greater than the historical  aver-
ages for each of the seasons in 1975.   These factors contributed to  an
unusual seasonal pattern for the climatic factor C, as well as,  values  of
C which were appreciably higher than usual historical  levels.
             Table 4-4.  Seasonal Climatic Factor, C,  in Phoenix
                         Area for 1975 and Historical  Long-Term
                         Averages
Period
1975
1st qtr.
2nd qtr.
3rd qtr.
4th qtr.
Historical
Averages
1st qtr.
2nd qtr.
3rd qtr.
4th qtr.
Quarterly
PE Average*

8.8
8.8
7.7
5.3


9.4
9.4
9,4
9.4
/•
Average Wind
Speed, w
(mph)

7.2
8.4
8.3
7.3


5.6
6.7
6.5
5.2
C = .345 — %-
(PE)2

1.7
2.6
3.4
4.8


0.7
1.2
1.1
0.6
       a.   PE = Thornthwaite's Precipitation Evaporation Index (see
            Table 4-5).
                                   4-18

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                            Table 4-5.  1975 Prectpttation Evaporation Index for Phoenix Area
—
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
P1974

.02
1.37
.01
.00
.00
.84
1.15
1.07
2.12
.44
.59
*1974

56.7
64.5
70.6
80.2
92.2
92.4
91.2
87.2
75.9
61.5
50.6
P.
6 1974

0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
P1975
.02
.33
.63
.43
.00
.00
.38
.00
.82
.23
.55
1.12
^975
52.3
54.0
59.0
62.6
76.7
86.6
94.3
91.9
86.2
72.9
60.9
54.8
P_
6 1975
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
(PE)1975
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.4
7.4
7.2
4.9
5.1
5.9
1975
Quarterly PE
Average
)
/8.8







8.8


7.7

)
5.3

I


<£>
Notes:
                                10
                          12 p

              2.   PE = lOJE-iOn



              3.   PE historical  = 9.4
                                where p - monthly rainfall in inches, t = temperature  in °F.
                                p
                                — is precipitation evaporation ratio.



                                where PE = Thornthwaite Precipitation Evaporation Index.

-------
     The unsheltered distance factor for a given road surface in the
prevailing wind direction varies continually.   To assess an average effec-
tive distance factor, it was assumed that in the long-term, wind direction
is equally distributed for all  roads.  Any error attributable to this
assumption would be minimized by the more probable assumption that unpaved
dirt roadways are equally distributed in terms of direction.  For example,
when the prevailing wind traverses north-south roadways at a 10° angle,
it must in turn traverse all the east/west roads at an 80° angle.  The net
effect is to balance the various cases of wind directions oblique to the
road.  Figure 4-7  shows the effect of wind direction to unsheltered road
distance for an average unpaved road in the Phoenix area.  Figure 4-8
relates the unsheltered distances to the unsheltered distance factor L'.
L1 is related to the distance in which maximum soil movement is reached,
and varies with soil credibility.  For an equally distributed wind
direction, the average value of L for road surfaces of specified
credibility IK, are shown in Table 4-6.  It is evident that L1 varies
only slightly for the range of soil surfaces to be considered in the
Phoenix area.

             Table 4-6.  Unsheltered Road Distance Factor L1
IK

10
40
60
L1 at Different Prevailing Wind Directions

e = 90°
.01
.05
.08

e = 60°
.01
.06
.09

e = 30°
.01
.07
.10

e = 0°
1.00
1.00
1.00
Average L'

.26
.29
.32
                                    4-20

-------
§
oo
o
a:
o   —

<    K»


£  "»LC
_  CSJh-
Q   JW


O
LU
Qi
140





120





100-





 80-





 60





 40





 20
                                                     Road

                                                     Width
                                                            Dlrectior
                      15°
                     30°      45°       60°       75°


                    ANGLE  OF WIND WITH ROAD (8)
                                                                      90C
        Figure 4-7.   Effect  of Wind Direction on Unsheltered Road  Distance
                               4-21

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                              1000      2000      3000      400C      5000      6000
                           L = UNSHELTERED DISTANCE ALONG PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. FEET
                           100  .    150      200      250      300 ,     350     400
                               I • UNSHELTERED DISTANCE ALONG PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION, FEET
Figure 4-8.   Effect of Unsheltered  Field  Length  on  Relative  Emission  Rate  [1]
                                          4-22

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Emission Estimates
     Estimates of suspended dust arising from wind over unpaved dirt roads
were calculated by assigning specific values discussed previously to the
parameters of the wind erosion equation.  A suspension factor of .038 was
applied to approximate the suspended portion of the wind erosion soil
losses.  Table 4-7 summarizes the overall computation procedure.  The emis-
sions are computed on a seasonal basis to reflect the significance of
differences in the climate.

       Figure  4-9  illustrates  the  gridded emission  inventory  for windblown
 fugitive  particulate  emissions  off  unpaved  roads.  The  magnitude of
 emissions  for each of the  2 km  grid squares  is  given  by a  single digit
 number representing an emissions  regime  as  shown by the accompanying grid
 legend.   As  indicated, the magnitude of  windblown  dust  from  unpaved roads
 is  relatively insignificant.  An  emissions  grid was developed  for each of
 the seasons,  and  demonstrated the following  variation for  1975:
                  Quarter                tons/day
                     1                      1.4
                     2                      2.1
                     3                      2.7
                     4                      3.8
                  Average                  2.5
It should be remembered that the seasonal variation of climate  in  1975  was
appreciably different than the historical average,  and that any given year
is likely to show a unique variation in windblown roadway  emission  levels.
Also, because windblown emissions  are related to the  cube  of wind  speed,
it is evident that short term wind blown dust levels  may exceed the  amount
shown above by several times  during  gusty winds.
     The distribution  of emissions resulting from windblown roadway  dust
is illustrated graphically in Figure4-10.  As expected,  the areas  generat-
ing the greatest levels of roadway dust are in the  immediate neighborhood
surrounding urban Phoenix, as  well as in the surburban and remote  areas
to the northwest and  south.  The distribution remains  unchanged by season,
since climate has been assumed homogeneous over the entire study area.   It
should be clear however,  that short  term spatial variations in  climatology
would affect the distribution  of Figure 4-9 significantly.

                                    4-23

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               Table 4-7.  Wind-Blown Fugitive Emissions  Off Unpaved  Roads in the  Phoenix Area,  1975
Specific Area
(Maintenance
area or
township)

D, Miles of
Dirt Roads
a
Basic Erodibility,
I, of Soil, (ton/
acre/year)
b
Unsheltered
Distance
Factor, L1
c
Emissions = AIKCL'V'( D )(. 00828) tons/day
1st
Quarter
E=.00543IL'D
d
2nd
Quarter
E=.000912IL'D
d
3rd
Quarter
E=.0015IL'D
d
4th
Quarter
E=.0015IL'D
d
-p>
ro
             a  See discussion of Section  3.1.2.

             b  Derived from soil silt content and Figure 4-6.

             c  Determined from Table 4-6.

             d  Computed from the wind erosion equation and the suspension factor .038.  K = 1,  V
               factor C is calculated for each season (Table 4-4).
= 1,  and the  climatic

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     GRID
     CODE

      0
      1
      2
      3
      4
      5
      6
      7
      8
      9
   EMISSIONS
   TONS/DAY
 0
 0
.00001
.00007
.00021
.00052
.0010
.0019
.0034
.0055
to 0
to .00001
to .00007
to .00021
to .00052
to .0010
to .0019
to .0034
to .0055
to .0083
Figure  4-9.   Participate  Emissions Grid  for Wind  Blown Dust off Unpaved
                Roads,  Fourth Quarter,  1975.
                                          4-25

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I
ro
CTt
         Figure 4-10.  Wind  Blown  Fugitive  Particulate Emissions
                      from  Unpaved Roads,  Fourth Quarter, Daily

                      Average,  1975.

-------
     The particle size distribution of the  suspended  dust was  approximated

based on two considerations.   The  first is  Gillete's  finding [7]  that  sus-

pended aerosol  distributions  approximate the  particle size  distribution

of the parent soil and are independent of wind speed for particle dia-

meters 2Qu or less.  Second is the assumption that at average wind speed

7.8 mph (1975 Phoenix average), particles greater than 30y  will not be

suspended or will settle quickly (see Figure 4-4).  Table 4-8 shows the

average distribution of particle sizes estimated for windblown dust from

unpaved roads.
  TABLE 4-8.  Particle Size Distribution of Suspended Soil Losses from
              Unpaved Roads (1975)
Particle
Size Range
(diameter)
< 2y
2y to 20y
20u to 30u
Percentage
in
native
soil9
6%
15%
7%
of Soil Particles by
in suspended
soil losses
21%
54%
25%
weight




                While it was shown that the silt content of unpaved
                road surfaces was unlike that of the native soils,
                no specific data was available to define the distri-
                bution among those particles assumed suspendable by
                wind (0 to 3Q}.  It was assumed that the weight dis-
                tribution of the suspendable particles could be
                approximated closely by the relative distribution
                of these particles in the native soil.  The native
                soil was considered to consist of two predominant
                soil types (see Section 3.6).
                                  4-27

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 4.3   WINDBLOWN EMISSIONS OFF AGRICULTURAL FIELDS
     Except for the region to the horth and Northeast,  the Metropolitan
Phoenix Area is surrounded by agricultural  croplands.   These lands comprise
an estimated 1450 square miles including a  portion of  Final  Colony in the
project study area.  Soils of these; lands are variable, and range in silt
content (<75y) from about 20 to 70%.   Mechanical  disturbance of these soils
through agricultural activities contributes to the disaggregation of the
soils, tending to make them more susceptible to drifting by wind.  In
addition, dry climate and high temperatures contribute  substantially to
soil errodibility.   The suspension of soil  particles during periods of
maximum soil erosion may cause significant  impact on particulate levels
throughout the Metropolitan  Phoenix Area.   The following discussion
provides a review of previous wind blown agricultural  emissions, a des-
cription of the methodology utilized for the present emission inventory,
and a summary of agricultural emissions estimates derived for this study.
Review of Previous Inventories
     Only the PEDCo investigation has considered wind  blown soil emissions
from agricultural fields.  In that study dust emissions from agricultural
fields were estimated by employing the wind erosion equation.  A 2.5%
suspension of the soil erosion losses was assumed.  These calculated dust
emission rates were compared to rates calculated by solution of Pasquill-
Gifford diffusion equations (ground level sources with  no effective plume
rise) using measured particulate concentrations in agricultural fields.
Based on the final  report [2], it is unclear if results of these approaches
were consistent.  However, because the wind erosion equation approach
accounts for a variety of different crop situations, the equation was
employed by PEDCo to estimate 1970 agricultural emission sources in the
Phoenix area.  Crop data was obtained to assess the specific emission
totals associated with the various major crop type.
     A specific limitation of the previous  study was the climatic factor due
to seasonal and historical variations, and  irrigation  practices.  Irrigation
results in maintenance of soil moisture, and the consolidation of the soil.
Depending on the crop, irrigation requirements vary from about 25 inches of
equivalent rainfall to 74 inches.  This irrigation exerts a substantial
effect on the year-long aggregation of agricultural soils.  The irrigation
                                   4-28

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moisture for the various crop is reflected dramatically by the corresponding
value of the climatic factors.  The factors are several times less than that
for non-irrigated  lands  experiencing  only  the  native  moisture  levels
(as will be shown  in  following  sections).  Therefore, neglecting the
effect  of  irrigation  on  agricultural  soil  losses  has  probably  resulted in
emission estimates which were substantially  overstated in the  previous
inventory.
     The variation of wind speed is another important determinant to the
year-long or seasonal  levels of soil wind erosion losses. Area-specific
wind speeds occuring in the baseyear for the study should be used to esti-
mate specific emission levels for that year.   Long-term historical averages
which are only region-specific are not represent!ve of base year emissions,
and limit the credibility of source=receptor relationships which employ base-
year air quality data  for calibration.
Methodology of the Present Inventory
     Wind blown dust emissions from agricultural fields were estimated by
assigning area specific values to the variables of the MRI form of the
wind erosion equation  (Section 4.2).,     Except for the potential  soil
errodibility I, the emission determinants depend on crop type.   In the
process of the development of the wind erosion equation, the U.S. Depart-
ment of Agriculture has assembled sufficient data  to parameterize soil
surface preparations and agricultural  practices for various crops.  These
data will  be employed  to estimate crop specific soil losses in  each town-
ship of the study area.
     An average value  for the soil  errodibility I, was determined for the
agricultural area of each township of the study area.   Soil silt measure-
ments by the U.S. Department of Agriculture [5] were related to soil  types
identified on general  soil  maps  [6].  Agricultural regions were then  located
on the soil maps with  the use of aerial photographs [10].   An average silt
content was estimated  for cropland within each township by weighting
township cropland acreage and corresponding soil silt levels.  Average
errodibility of the croplands was then determined  by the silt content/
errodibility relationship shown  in Figure 4-6 (the fraction of  soil particles
<.84y was  assumed to approximate that fraction <.75y as available from
USDA silt measurements [5]).  The soil errodibility was found to vary from

                                    4-29

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2 to 55 tons/acre-year among the townships.  This variation is substantial
and would cause significant local variations in windblown dust levels from
agricultural  fields.
     Values  for the soil  surface roughness factor K,  the unsheltered field
length L,  and the  vegative cover, are relatively uniform for a specific
crop.   The surface roughness  factor  accounts for resistance  to wind erosion
due to ridges or clods in the field.   An optimal  ratio of ridge heights  to
ridge spacing w;ill reduce soil  erosion by a factor of .5.  Table 4-9 shows
typical roughness  factors associated with soil  preparation for various
crops.
     Average field sizes  for  relatively flat terrain  devoid  of tall natural
vegetation have been established for various crops as shown  in Table 4-9.
Soil  losses  from wind erosion accross a field vary from the  windward edge
of the field and increase proportionately with  length until  a terminal rate
of soil movement is attained.   The distance required  before  attaining
maximum erosion rate is influenced by the potential  errodibility (I) and
roughness  (K) of the soil. The relationship between  the unsheltered field
length (L),  the surface erosion potential IK, and the field  length factor
L1  is shown  in Figure 4-8.
     The amount of vegative cover residue left  on a field after the growing
season varies appreciably by  crop (Table 4-9).   Cover residue reduces soil
wind erosion losses by the factor V  as shown in Figure 4-11.  The degree
of reduction attainable with  crop residue is related  to the  value of
IKCL'.
     Five major crops comprised about 94% of all  agricultural  land use in
1975.   Table 4-10shows the extent of acreage used for each of the crops.
During the growing season, wind erosion losses  from soil under these
crops  is assumed  to be negligible except  for lands growing cotton.  Cotton
provides only minimal cover for the land  leaving the soil susceptible to
erosion throughout the year.   Alphalfa on the other hand, provides sufficient
cover  during  and  after the growing season to deter soil erosion to negli-
gible  levels.
                                    4-30

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TABLE 4-9.  VALUES OF K, L AND V FOR COMMON FIELD CROPS [1]
Crop
Alfalfa
Barley
Beans
Corn
Cotton
Grain Hays
Oats
Peanuts
Potatoes
Rice
Rye
Saf flower
Sorghum
Soybeans
Sugar Beets
Vegetables
Wheat
K
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.6
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
L,ft.
1000
2000
1000
2000
2000
2000
2000
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
2000
1000
500
2000
V,lb/acre
3000
1100
250
500
250
1250
1250
250
400
1000
1250
1500
900
250
100
100
1350
                      4-31

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I
CO
ro
                         Figure 4-11,  Effect of Vegetative Cover on Relative Emission Rate  [1],

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            TABLE  4-10. MAJOR CROPS  IN PHOENIX STUDY ARF.A
      CROP TYPE                AREAS OF CROPLAND*        PERCENTAGE OF
                                                        TOTAL CROPLAND
Cotton
Alphafa and Hays
Barley
Sorghum
Wheat
Other
TOTAL
296,000
125,100
85,500
45,650
128,600
45,350
726,350
40.7
17.2
11.8
6.3
17.7
6.2

:*   Reference  [10] and  [11].

       Typical crop  parameters  (Table  4-9)  were  assigned  to the five  major
 crops grown in the  study area.   Since there  were  no  apparent patterns
 involving crop spatial  distribution,  the study  area  crop distribution  by
 township was  assumed to be constant for both the  Pinal and Maricopa  County
 portions of the study area.

      The climatic factor C, was  calculated to reflect seasonal  variations  in
 temperature,  soil moisture (including precipitation  and  irrigation effects)
 and average wind speeds for the  study area in the  1975 baseyear.  Considera-
 tion for these specific variations  has obvious  implications  for the  soil
 erosion  estimates.   Values of C  are unique for  the study region,  and vary
 significantly by season and crop type.   Values  of  C  for  the  study area  by
 season were derived in  Section 4.2.     To  calculate  wind blown soil  losses
 from agriculture fields, these values were adjusted  to reflect additional
 soil moisture provided  by crop irrigation.
      Figure4-12 illustrates approximate water use  requirements for cotton
 crops in the  study  area.  A total of  41  inches  of  water  is provided  during
 the growing season  on  a schedule peaking in  August.  Additional water
 (about 20 inches) is supplied for other reasons than consumptive  use by the

                                    4-33

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crop (for leaching salts, softening a crust,  moving fertilizers  into soil,
compensation for runoff losses, etc.)-   The effect which  these irrigation
waters exert on soil moisture, and the manner in which this may  be related
to the precipitation evaporations is not clear.   Surely irrigation water
on cropland soils will not produce as great an effect on  the soil  moisture
as an equivalent amount would on soil  supporting less  vegetation.   Consumptive
use of the water by plants will account for much of the water use.  Also,
the irrigation schedule applies to the growing season, not the period when
the soil is most susceptible to wind erosion.  On the other hand,  periodic
irrigation during the growing season does maintain the soil moisture and
aggregated state of the soil.  The effects of the irrigation are significant
in the non-growing season, when disconsolidation of the soil and exposure to
winds would reduce resistance to soil erosion.  In the absence of available
guidelines, it was assumed for the purposes of this study that irrigation
water use could be related to soil moisture in the same manner as rainfall
in the precipitation evaporation index. However,  only  the  minimal crop water
use, as shown in Figure 4-12 was incorporated to calculate the adjusted PE
values.
     Based on area-specific irrigation schedules for the five major crops,
and monthly precipitation and temperature data, a PE index was calculated
for each crop.  The PE  values were then combined with  1975 quarterly
average wind speeds to  calculate quarterly climatic factors for each crop.
The  results of  these  calculations  are shown  in Table 4-11.

                TABLE  4-11.   CROP-SPECIFIC CLIMATIC FACTORS
CROP

Cotton
Alphalfa
Barley
Sorghum
Wheat
PE INDEX

58.0
113
52.8
40.2
54.9
AVERAGE CLIMATIC FACTOR
1st
quarter
.04
.01
.05
.08
.04
2nd
quarter.
.06
.02
.07
.13
.07
3rd
quarter
.06
.02
.07
.12
.07
4th
quarter
.04
.01
.05
.08
.04
                                   4-34

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          SEASONAL
          SOIL MOISTURE DEPLETION
o
Q
1
cj
c
    04
   0.3
            0-1
£ 3-4
a
«
Q 4-5


  5-6
                     16.0"
                       (39%)
                  8.2
               (20%)
3  0.2
Q.
E
3
in


3  o.i
6.6" | (16%)


SIT1") (12%)


   2.9" (7%)


    .5"  (6%)





    First blossom
                                                                     Last blossoms  that
                                                                     usually mature
                                        SEASONAL USE 41.2 "
                                    SEMIMONTHLY  USE IN  INCHES
                    Figure 4-12.   Mean  Consumptive Use  of Water
                    by  Cotton  at  Mesa,  Arizona,  1954-1962 [12].
                                          4-35

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Emission Estimates
     Estimates of suspended dust arising from soil  wind erosion  losses  were
calculated based on assignment of wind erosion equation parameters  as  specified
previously.  A suspension factor of .025 was employed to approximate the
suspended portion of the soil  losses.   Table 4-12 - summarizes  the overall
computation procedure.   The calculations were computerized for convenience in
dealing with the numerous townships containing agricultural  fields.   Values
of the errodibility index I, the unsheltered field length factor L1, and
the vegative factor V  were extracted  from the curves of Figure  4-6, 4-8,
and 4-11 through a software interpolation program.
     Figure 4-13 illustrates the gridded emission  Inventory  for  fugitive
wind blown emissions over agricultural lands in the first quarter of 1975.
The magnitude of emissions for each of the 2 km grid squares is  represented
by a emissions regime rank number as defined by the grid legend.  Such an
emission grid was developed for each of the seasons.   The variation in
seasonal emission  levels  is summarized below:

                     QUARTER                 TONS/DAY
                        1                       4.1
                        2                       4.0
                        3                       3.8
                        4                       4.0
                     Average                    4.0

The variation is less significant than might be expected due to  the fact
that the cotton  crop, which is assumed susceptible to wind erosion through-
out the year, dominates  the emissions total.
     The distribution of emissions arising over agricultural lands is
illustrated graphically  in Figure 4-14. The substantial portion  of the wind
blown emissions  originate southeast of Phoenix.  The prevailing  direction
of gusty winds (during the thunderstorm season) is also from the southeast.
Since windblown  emissions increase with the third power of wind velocity,
it appears that  agricultural wind blown soil dust could exert a  significant
impact on  dust levels in  Phoenix during windy conditions.  The distribution
represented in Figure 4-14 remains relatively constant by season, since it has

                                   4-36

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                                TABLE 4-12.   COMPUTATIONAL  PROCEDURE  FOR ESTIMATION  OF  FUGITIVE  DUST
                                        FROM WIND  EROSION OF  CROPLANDS  IN  FIRST  QUARTER6.
                                                              E = .025 GIK^L'V'f
-F»

-J
TOWNSHIP CROP TYPE
Cotton
Barley
Sorghum
Alphafa
Wheat
a. Values
b. L1 is
c. V is
d. The pe
G I K
ACRES OF SOIL ERRODIBILITY SURFACE ROUGH-
CROPLAND (tons/acre-yr) NESS FACTOR
a. .5
-
-
-
-
.6
.5
1.0
.6
of I are determined from silt content and Figure
Cl
CLIMATIC FACTOR
FOR 1st QUARTER
.04
.05
.08
.01
.04
5-3.
L L1 V V f
UNSHELTERED LENGTH VEGETATIVE VEGETA- FRACTION OF YEAR
LENGTH (ft) FACTOR RESIDUE TIVE FOR WHICH SOIL IS A
(Ib/acre) FACTOR EXPOSED IN QUARTER
TOTAL EMISSIONS
Tons/Quarter
2000 b. 250 c. 3/12
2000
200
1000
2000

1100
900
3000
1350

0
3/12
0
0

-
-
-
-

determined from IK and Figure 4-8.
determined from ICCL' and Figure 4-11.
riod of soil exposure is equivalent to non-grow1nc
season for grain
crops ,



                  and assumed to exist throughout the year for cotton crops due to limited soil
                  cover provided by cotton vegetation.  The exposure periods are:
                  - cotton, throughout the year
                  - barley, May to Decmeber
                  - sorghum, November to July
                  - alphalfa, no period
                  - wheat, May to December
                    To calculate emissions for remaining quarters of 1975, the procedure
                    above 1s repeated using appropriate values for c and f.

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   GRID
   CODE
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    EMISSIONS
    TONS/DAY
.00000 TO
.00000 TO
.00002 TO
.00009 TO
.0003
.0007
.0015
.0028
.0048
.0078
.00000
.00002
.00009
.0003
.0007
.0015
.0028
.0048
.0078
.012
Figure  4-13.
         Particulate  Emissions  Grid for Wind Blown Dust  off
         Agricultural  Fields, Third Quarter, 1975.
                                          4-38

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I
CO
UD
                      Figure 4-14.   Windblown Dust From Agricultural
                       Fields, Third Quarter, Daily Average, 1975.

-------
 been assumed  that the relative proportion of crop types is constant by
 township  for  the two contained areas of Maricopa County and Final County
 (only the relative emission level between Pinal and Maricopa varies).
     The  particle size  distribution of the  suspended dust was approximated
 based on  two  considerations.  The first is  Gillette's finding [7] that
 suspended aerosol distributions  approximate the particle size distribution
 of the  parent soil and  are  independent of wind speed for particle diameters
 2Cu or less.   Second is the assumption  that at wind speed  7.8 mph  (Phoenix
 1975 average), particles greater than 30  micron  diameter will  not  be sus-
 pended or will settle quickly (see  Figure 4-4).   Table  4-13 shows  the
 average distribution of particle size estimated  for windblown dust off
 agricultural  fields.
            TABLE  4-13.  PARTICLE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF SUSPENDED
                        SOIL LOSSES FROM AGRICULTURAL FIELDS (1975)
     PARTICLE SIZE               '     PERCENTAGES SOIL  PARTICLES  BY WEIGHT
     RANGE (DIAMETER)
IN PARENT SOIL3'    IN SUSPENDED SOIL LOSSES
     <2                                    6%                     21%
     2y to 20u                            15%                     54%
    20u to 30U                             7%                     25%

a.  The average  soil  particle  size  distribution was determined by averaging
    the two predominant soil types  in Maricopa County  (see Section  3.6).
                                     4-40

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4.4  WIND BLOWN EMISSIONS OFF UNDISTURBED DESERT
     Approximately 30% (1650 square miles) of the study area is comprised
of undisturbed desert pavement.  Most of this land is concentrated to the
north and south of Phoenix.  The soil surface of undisturbed desert dis-
plays a crusty surface including many pebbles, and generally supports a
variety of desert scrub, creosote, and cactus.  The crust of the desert
pavement is relatively resistant to wind erosion, although this resistance
may vary significantly during the year.  Exposure of the crust to the
sandblasting effect caused by winds tends to disturb the consolidation
of the surface, while precipitation tends to restore the crust.  Only
very limited attention has been directed to the understanding of this
behavior.  Consequently, the methodology established in the following
sections for the estimation of wind blown soil from the desert floor
is subject to appreciable uncertainty.

Review of Previous Emission Inventories
     None of the previous emission inventories developed for the Phoenix
area have included an estimate of fugitive dust loadings off the un-
disturbed desert.  The basis of this omission in previous work is not
clear.  It was probably considered that fugitive dust arising from the
stable desert pavement would not be a significant contributor to dust
levels.  This assumption is undoubtedly correct for periods of low wind
speeds.  However, as shown in the air quality review of this project
[13], increasing wind speeds result in high levels of suspended part-
iculates in environments adjacent to appreciable segments of undisturbed
desert.  Because of the broad expanses of land comprising this fugitive
source, it is appropriate to address the significance of its emission
strength.
Methodology for Present Inventory
     The most apparent relevant study characterizing fugitive dust emis-
sions from undisturbed desert is described by Shinn [8].  The Shinn model,
discussed in Section 4.1, describes vertical flux of soil particles
                                   4-41

-------
from a desert pavement as a function of wind velocity.  The model, based
on field measurements of dust loadings from desert (Nevada) very similar
to the Arizona desert, appears to express unreasonably high values of
suspended soil particles (see Table 4-2).  As discussed previously, the
highest estimates may be due to the influence of local source influences
dominating the dust loadings.  Another model similar to the Shinn version,
proposed by Gillette [23], expresses the vertical flux F as
                   F=  k(*	
                          \uthresh

                     = °               for u <  uthresh
In this version, >  > 3.  The value of  Y   increases with silt per unit
mass content of the soil.  The threshold friction velocity varies for
different soils and surface roughness ratios, but was found to be approx-
imately .6 mph (corresponding to a wind speed of about 6 mph) for the
conditions supporting derivation of the model.   Unfortunately the char-
acteristics of the soils tested by Gillette were dissimilar to conditions
of the Arizona desert.  The field sites were Texas agricultural fields,
exhibiting relatively high soil silt contents, while the Arizona desert
pavement demonstrates a relatively low silt content and a crusted.surface.
A third model, developed by MRI  [9], combines elements of the wind erosion
equation and the Gillette findings to relate wind blown soil dust to
soil and site characteristics, and the duration of time which the
threshold wind speed is exceeded.  This model is derived from a synthesis
of field data, none of which bear similarity to Arizona desert environ-
ments.
     Clearly, the research is presently too narrow in scope to utilize
parametrized relationships such as the Gillette model. The MRI model
appears to yield reasonable estimates of suspended soil loadings, but
does not account for the impact of increasing velocities on vertical
flux.    When compared to Gillette test data, the MRI model  estimates
are consistent with the apparent pattern that the fraction of horizontal
soil flux which is suspended increases with decreasing horizontal flux.
However, at higher wind speeds, the MRI model will not conform to this
pattern.  It may be plausible therefore to utilize estimates calculated

                                    4-42

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by the MRI model to establish parameterization of the Gillette model  at
wind speeds near the threshold value, and to employ the Gillette model
to describe soil emissions associated with the higher end of the wind
speed distribution.  This approach is, however, similar to utilization
of the wind erosion equation, which also assumes a third power term of
wind velocity.  Because it is at present unclear which of these approaches
would yield best results, it was concluded that estimations of wind blown
desert soil would be derived employing the wind erosion equation (in
combination with a suspension factor).  This approach is consistent with
those estimations derived for other fugitive source categories (i.e.,
wind blown dust off unpaved roads) identified in the study.
     Wind blown suspended dust off the desert pavement was estimated
by the adapted and simplified form of the wind erosion equation dis-
cussed in Section 4.1.  This form, including the suspension factor of
.018, is
                     E = .018 IKCL'V.
     The soil errodibility index (I) for typical soil of the Arizona
desert was approximated by assuming it equivalent to that of the
Nevada desert surface, which has been sampled and analyzed by Shinn
[8,15].  A sample of the surface soil indicated an average silt content
of about 30% (percentage of particles <84/i).  This corresponds to an
errodibility index of  10 ton/acre/yr.  A further adjustment of the
index to reflect-surface consolidation, or crust, indicates an errod-
ibility of 1.67 ton/acre/year  is the appropriate effective index to
be applied in the calculations [14].
     The climatic factor C was calculated to reflect seasonal variation
in temperature, precipitation, and average wind speeds for the Phoenix
area.  These computations are discussed in Section 4-2 and summarized
in Table 4-4.  Due to lower than normal rainfall and higher than usual
wind speeds, an unusual seasonal pattern for the climatic factor (C)
was  experienced in 1975.
     The unsheltered distance factor for the undisturbed desert was
assumed to approach unity since most of the desert area is subject
to uninterrupted erosion for thousands of feet.  The vegetation
                                  4-43

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 cover factor was presumed to be .9.   The desert surface exhibits
 abundant scrub, but this growth is intermittent and actually covers
 a small fraction of the desert surface.   The true effect of the desert
 growth on the vegetative factor is unclear, since empirical derivation
 of the factor is based on agricultural  crop residues, quite unlike the
 desert type of growth.  Selection of .9  as the vegetative cover will
 insure that the fugitive emission levels are not underestimated.
       The amount of desert in each township was estimated using aerial
 photographs included in the Arizona Cropland Atlas [10], and a current
 land use map of the study area [18].  A software program developed for the
 study was employed to convert the township acreage to the grid cell net-
 work utilized for spatial expression of emissions levels.
      Estimates of suspended dust arising from wind over the undisturbed
 desert were calculated  by assigning the parameter values to the wind
 erosion equation.^ The  seasonal wind blown desert emissions for 1975
 is presented  below.
                 Quarter          Tons/Day
                    1                 160
                    2                 244
                    3                 321
                    4                 450
                  average             294

     Figure 4-15 illustrates the gridded  emission inventory for wind
blown fugitive desert dust.  It is important to note that windblown
emissions may exceed the amounts shown above by several times during
gusty winds.  The distribution of the desert soil emissions is illus-
trated in Figure 4-16.   The desert areas  generate large area sources
of dust surrounding the Phoenix area, particularly to the north and
south.
     The particle size distribution of the suspended desert dust was
approximated by assuming it to be equivalent to that of the parent
soil  for particle sizes 30>u diameter or less.  Disintegration of
the soil aggregates by increased sandblasting of the surface causes
the soil particles to exhibit the same aerosol distribution as if they
had originally risen from a disturbed desert surface.  Based on the

                                   4-44

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  GRID
  CODE

  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
 EMISSIONS
 TONS/DAY
 0
 0
.001
.004
.01
.03
.06
.12
.20
.32
to  0
to  .001
to  .004
to  .01
to  .03
to  .06
to  .12
to  .20
to  .32
to  .49
Figure 4-15.
      Emissions Grid Map for Fugitive Dust Emissions Arising
      from Wind Erosion of Undisturbed Desert in  Phoenix
      Area, First  Quarter, 1975.
                                   4-45

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I

            Figure 4-16.   Participate Fugitive  Emissions Arising from Wind Erosion of Undisturbed
                    Desert in  Phoenix Area,  First Quarter, Daily Average, 1975.

-------
1975 average wind speed of 7.8 mph, the suspendable portion of the
injected particles will be less than 30 ju in diameter.  The expected
aerosol distribution for d < 30 ju was approximated from parent soil
data (see Section 3-6) as follows:

                            <  2y    21%
                            2-20u   54%
                            20-30u  25%

4.5  TAILINGS PILES
     Tailings piles consist of deposits of earth removed during mining
operations.  For large mines, the tailing piles may expand over several
thousand acres.  Generally the piles are composed of substantial pro-
portions of fines which  are relatively  susceptible to significant  wind
erosion losses.  Fugitive emissions from tailings piles represent a
minor source in the study area since few mining operations are conducted,
and these are located at the southern border of the study area.
Review of  Previous  Inventories and  Emission Factors
     Only limited information is available concerning soil emissions
from tailings piles.  Recently, PEDCo [2] has developed an emission
factor for this fugitive source by employing the wind erosion equation.
No field testing was performed in the PEDCo analysis.  Representative
characteristics were identified for tailings for use in the wind erosion
equation.  The piles were described as being composed of sand and loamy
sand soils with possible fines for surface cementation.  They are charac-
tized by a smooth, unridged surface and no vegetative cover.  Wind
fetch-over the piles is approximately 2000 feet.  Ten percent of the
soil loss estimated by the  wind erosion equation is assumed to become
suspended.  The emissions are seasonally related to the climatic factor,
which may vary substantially during the year (see Section 4.2).  This
relationship is illustrated in Table 4-14.  Total emissions are calculated
by applying the emission factor to the number of acres of tailings piles.
                                  4-47

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         TABLE  4-14.   EMISSION  FACTORS FOR TAILINGS PILES.

CViiudtic Factor
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
120
Emissions
tons/acre/year
4.0
5.3
6.6
8.0
9.5
10.5
12.2
13.3
16.0
          Source:   Reference  [2]

Methodology of the Present Inventory
      Based on the historical climatic factor for the study area (.80),
 the PEDCo emission factor was determined to be 10.5 tons/acre/year.   How-
 ever, data was apparently unavailable to quantify the size and character-
 istics of tailings piles.  No useful  data was available from the Arizona
 State Department of Health, the Final County APCD, or the University of
 Arizona Bureau of Mines.  None of these agencies are at present concerned
 with quantifying the sizes and locations of tailings piles.  Attaining
 information from the individual mines was difficult because of require-
 ments to corporation confidentiality.  Due to the relative insignificance
 of the tailings pile sources, pursuit of the data was abandoned and  emis-
 sions data from a previous PEDCo inventory were utilized.
     The  PEDCo  estimates  were  adjusted  since  PEDCo  had inventoried tailings
 piles  in  all  of Pinal County (1200  acres  of piles).  This figure was
 modified  by apportioning  the total  acreage in  proportions to the number
 of  employees  at the major mines  in  Pinal  County*  (Table 4-15).  Table
 4-16  presents  the  tailings piles  inventory for the  Phoenix  study area.
 *It would have  been  more  direct  to  base  the adjustment on production
  rates  at the mines,  but  these data were available  for only  one mine
  (from  the NEDS point source  listing).
                                   4-48

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          TABLE 4-15.  SIZE OF MAJOR MINES IN FINAL COUNTY.
Company
ASARCO
Hecla
Magma

Location
Sacaton
Casa Grande
San Manuel
Superi or
Number of Employees
360
1150
4200
1150
Source:  Reference [25]
    TABLE 4-16.  EMISSIONS FROM TAILINGS PILES IN PHOENIX STUDY AREA.
Company
ASARCO
Hecla
Location
Sacaton
Casa Grande
Size of Tailings
Piles (Acres)
60
204
Emission Factor
(tons/acre/yr.)
10.5
10.5
Emissions
(tons/day)
0.3
1.1
     Figure 4-17 shows the gridded emissions inventory for windblown
dust from tailings piles, and Figure 4-18 illustrates graphically the
spatial distribution of the emissions.  The insignificance of tailings
piles emissions for the study region air quality is heightened by the
remote location of this source.
     No, data were provided by PEDCo as to particle size distributions of
the suspended tailings  piles  emissions.   It  was  assumed that  the
distribution could be approximated by that of emissions from  aggregate
loadout operations.
             Particle Size (M )          Weight Percent
                  <1                         30
                  1-2                        46
                  2-3                        16
                  3-4                        6
                  <4                        4
                                  4-49

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     GRID
     CODE

      0
      1
      2
      3
      4
      5
      6
      7
  EMISSIONS
  TONS/DAY

 0  to  0
 0     .002
.002  to  .009
.009  to  .03
.03
.07
.14
.26
.45
.72
to  .07
to  .14
to  .26
to  .45
to  .72
to 1.1
Figure 4-17.   Emissions  Grid Map for  Fugitive Dust  Arising from
       Wind  Erosion of Tailings  Piles,  Daily  Average, 1975.
                                   4-50

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-p.
en
        Figure 4-18.
Fugitive Dust Emissions Arising from Wind Erosion of
 Tailings Piles, Daily Average, 1975.

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4.6  DISTURBED SOIL SURFACES.

     There are substantial  amounts of exposed earth throughout the
study area.  Where the exposed earth is subject to repeated traffic or
other disturbance, the surface crust becomes disaggregated into fine
particles which are  susceptible to suspension by wind.   The vulnerable
soil surfaces consist of vacant lots and parking lots,  and dirt residence
yards.  Windblown dust from these surfaces constitutes  a significant
source of suspended particulate matter, particularly during the more
windy and dry periods.
Review of Previous Emission Inventories
     None of the previous emission inventories developed for the Phoenix
area have included an estimate of windblown fugitive dust emissions from
distrubed soil surfaces.  Established emission factors  applicable to this
source have not yet been quantitatively determined.
Methodology for Present Inventory
     Estimates of suspended dust emissions from distrubed soil surfaces
were calculated based on an assignment of value to parameters of the wind
erosion model.  A suspension factor equivalent to that selected as
representative of soil of unpaved roads (.038) was assumed applicable
for vacant lots, parking lots, and dirt residence yards.  Since an inven-
tory of vacant land acreage was unavailable, the amount of vacant land
in each township of the study area was determined by scaling the vacant
areas indicated.on a 1973 land use map for Phoenix [18].  It was estimated
that about 71 square miles (45,200 acres) of vacant land were within the
urbanized artds of the study region.  These vacant areas were considered
to be subject to regular disturbance; those vacant areas outside the
urbanized region were considered to be mainly undisturbed desert land.
     The amount of exposed earth on private residences  with dirt yards
was estimated for the Phoenix metropolitan area with the aid of infor-
mation provided by the City of Phoenix Planning Department.  The infor-
mation consisted of a map of the 1975 Phoenix Census Tracts, including
designation of those tracts comprised primarily of residential dwellings
                                   4-52

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having dirt yards.  The designations were based on planning personnel
familiarity with the Phoenix area.  A comparison of the marked census
tract map with a map of census tract median family income showed that
dirt residence yards were generally located in the economically depressed
areas.  The marked census tract map was related to the map of the General
Land Use Plan for Maricopa County [17] to determine the approximate
housing density of the marked tracts.  According to the map, the marked
tracts consisted of either 0-r5 or 5-15 housing units per gross acre.
The amount of exposed land was calculated assuming that 27% of the land
in the designated areas is used for streets and that 86% of the remaining
land is exposed in those tracts averaging 2 1/2 residences per acre and
and 34% is left exposed in those tracts averaging 10 residences per acre.
These assumptions  were based on a special zoning district study con-
ducted by the Maricopa County Planning and Zoning Department [16].  It
was also assumed that one fourth of all residence yards in the 0 to 5
dwellings per acre tracts were landscaped with some kind of soil cover,
and that one half of the exposed area of the yards is covered or sheltered
by buildings or other obstructions.  Based on the above assumptions,  it
was estimated that approximately 3.2 square miles (2020 acres) of exposed
residence yards exist within the metropolitan Phoenix area.
     The average unsheltered field lengths for vacant and cleared lands
was assumed to be 300 by 300 feet.  Based on typical dwelling and lot
sizes of Rl zoning districts, a distance of 120 feet was selected as
the representative unsheltered length of exposed soil strips between
dwellings.
     An average value for errodibility of the vacant soils was assumed
to be 60 tons/acre/year.  This value reflects the average errodibility
of non-crusted native soils in Phoenix.  An errodibility of 80 tons/acre/
year, which reflects the higher extreme of the normal range for native
Phoenix soils, was assigned to the highly pulverized soils characteristic
of private residence yards.
     The climatic factor was calculated to reflect seasonal variations
in temperature, wind speed, and precipitation, as described in Section
4.2.  Due to lower than normal rainfall and higher than usual wind speeds,
dust emissions from vacant lots and residence yards would be significantly
                                  4-53

-------
greater than usual during 1975.   The emissions estimates  are shown  below.
Figure 4-19 illustrates the gridded emissions inventory obtained.by
Quarter
1
2
3
4
Year Average
Emissions
Tons/Day
161
248
323
456
297
Emission Factor, tons/acre/year
Vacant lots
1.24
1.90
2.48
3.50
2.28
Residence yards
1.45
2.22
2.90
4.10
2.67
calculating emissions for the amount of vacant land or dirt residence
yards in each of the cells of the emission grid network.   Figure 4-20
illustrates graphically the emissions distribution in the study area.
     The particle size distribution of the dust emissions was approxi-
mated from parent soil data (see Section 3-6) as follows.
                             <2M      21%
                            2-20 p      54%
                           20-30 n      25%
                                  4-54

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     GRID
     CODE

      0
      1
      2
      3
      4
      5
      6
      7
      8
      9
   EMISSIONS
   TONS/DAY

0   to  0
0   to  .004
.004  to  .02
.02  to  .07
.07  to  .17
.17  to  .35
.35  to  .64
.64  to 1.1
    to 1.7
    to 2.7
1.1
1.7
Figure 4-19.
      Emissions Grid Map  for Fugitive Dust Arising from Wind
      Erosion of Disturbed  Soil Surfaces,  First  Quarter, 1975.
                                     4-55

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tn
en
        Figure  4-20.   Fugitive  Dust  Emissions Arising from Wind Erosion of
             Disturbed Soil Surfaces,  First Quarter, Daily Average, 1975.

-------
                      REFERENCES FOR SECTION  4.0
1.     Cowherd, Chatten; Axetell,  Kenneth;  Midwest  Research  Institute,
       "Development of Emission Factors  for Fugitive  Dust  Sources,"
       Prepared for U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency,  June  1974.

2.     Jutze, George; Axetell,  Kenneth,  PEDCo Environmental  Specialists,
       Inc., "Investigation of  Fugitive  Dust, Volume  I  - Sources,
       Emissions, and Control," Prepared for U.S. Environmental  Pro-
       tection Agency, June 1974.

3.     Chepil, W.S., "Dynamics  of  Wind  Erosion:   Initiation  of  Soil
       Movement," Soil Science, 60:  1945.

4.     Gillette, Dale, National Center  for  Atmospheric  Research,
       "Production of Fine Dust by Wind  Erosion  of  Soil:   Effect on Wind
       and Soil Texture," from  Proceedings  of a  symposium  at Rich!and,
       Washington, September 1974, on Atmosphere-Surface Exchange of
       Particulate and Gaseous  Pollutants.

5.     U.S. Department of Agriculture,  Soil Conservation Service, "Soil
       Survey - Eastern Maricopa and Northern Pinal Counties Area,
       Arizona," Washington, D.C., 1974.

6.     U.S. Department of Agriculture,  Soil Conservation Service,
       "General Soil Map, Maricopa County,  Arizona,"  1973.

7.     Gillette, Dale; Blifford, Irving; National Center for Atmospheric
       Research, "The Influence of Wind  Velocity on the Size Distributions
       of Aerosols Generated by the  Wind Erosion of Soils,"  Journal of
       Geophysical Research, September  20,  1974.

8.     Shinn, J.H., Lawrence Livermore  Laboratory,  "Observations of Dust
       Flux in the Surface Boundary  Layer for Steady  and Nonsteady Cases,"
       from Proceedings of a Symposium  on Atmosphere-Surface Exchange of
       Particulate and Gaseous  Pollutants,  September  1974.

9.     Midwest Research Institute, "Quantification  of Dust Entrainment
       from Paved Roads," Prepared for  Environmental  Protection Agency,
       March 1976.

10.    Arizona Crop and Livestock  Reporting Service,  "Cropland  Atlas of
       Arizona," Phoenix,  Arizona,  October 1974.

11.    Arizona Crop and Livestock  Reporting Service,  "1974 Arizona
       Agricultural Statistics," Bulletin S-10,  Phoenix, Arizona, March
       1975.

12.    Cooperative Extension Service, University of Arizona, "Arizona
       Agri-File, Cotton Water  Use," July 1973.
                                   4-57

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13.     Richard,  George;  Tan,  Ron;  Avery, Jim, TRW  Environmental Engineer-
       ing Division "An  Implementation  Plan  for Suspended Participate
       Matter in the Phoenix  Area, Volume  I,  Air  Quality Analysis,"
       Prepared  for Environmental  Protection Agency, May 1977.

14.     Woodruff, N.P.;  Siddoway,  F.'H.,  Soil  and Water Conservation
       Research  Division,  U.S.  Department  of Agriculture, "A Wind Erosion
       Equation," Kansas Department of  Agronomy Contribution No. 897,
       March 1965.

15.     Communication with  J.H.  Shinn, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory,
       University of California,  May 1976.

16.     Maricopa  County  Planning and Zoning Department,  "Data for School
       Planning," April  1973.

17.     Maricopa  County  Planning Department,  "A Report Upon  Future General
       Land Use  for Maricopa  County, Arizona," February, 1975.

18.     Maricopa  County  Planning Department,  "Generalized Existing Land
       Use, Phoenix, Arizona,  1973."
                                 4-58

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                5.0  PROJECTION OF CONVENTIONAL AND FUGITIVE DUST
                     PARTICULATE/EMISSIONS

     One of the major limitations of the previous particulate inventory was
that no projections were included.  The impact of control  strategies were
evaluated with respect to current (1970) emissions.  If emissions increase
over time, then control strategies would not be sufficiently strict to
meet the desired levels of air quality; if emissions decreased, then the
control strategies would be too stringent.  Therefore, to accurately
assess the impact of prospective  control  strategies, baseline emission
projections should be developed,
     In addition to changes in the magnitude of emission sources, the rela-
tive significance of the various particulate sources 1s expected to change
substantially by 1980 and 1985.  Fugitive dust emissions produced by human
activity (anthropogenic sources) are expected to exert a more pronounced
impact on total suspended particulate levels, while particulate emissions
from conventional sources and wind erosion of soil are estimated to dimin-
ish or remain Insignificant 1n relative Importance.  The forecast of emis-
sion levels from these three emission categories are summarized below.

                            EMISSIONS,  TONS/DAY
conventional
sources
34.8
42.2
50.6
anthropogenic
sources
1726
2121
2265
windblown
dust
599
203
148
         1975
         1980
         1985

     This chapter documents the emission projections f^r each of the
emission sources for the years 1980 and 1985.  The methodology and emission
estimates for these projections are discussed 1n the following section.
5.1  PROJECTION OF EMISSIONS FOR CONVENTIONAL SOURCES
     This section Includes a discussion of the methodology employed to
forecast particulate emissions levels from conventional sources.  These
sources consist of motor vehicles, point sources, stationary area sources,
                                    5-1

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and aircraft.
5.1.1  Motor Vehicles

     Projections of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) were based upon population
projections by the Maricopa County Association of Governments [1].  These
population prelections are summarized in Table 5-1.

                     TABLE 5-1.  POPULATION PROJECTIONS
YEAR
1975
1980
1985
POPULATION
(Millions of Residents)
1.374
1.751
2.057
GROWTH RATIO
FROM 1975
1.000
1.274
1.497
VMT
(Millions)
16.7
21.2
24.9
     Because of the pending controls on automobiles it was necessary to
project emission factors also.  The catalytic converter results in signifi-
cant reductions of automobile and light truck particulate emissions.
Supplement 5 of AP-42 [4] indicates that only 1975 through 1977 light duty
vehicles (LDV's) can be expected to have catalytic converters.  After that,
it is probable that new control alternatives will cause a return to
previous emission levels.  Therefore, post-1977 cars are assumed to have
the same emissions as pre-1975 cars.  Calculations of projected emission
factors for 1980 and 1985 cars and light trucks were included in Section
2.0 (Table 2-3 and 2-4) with the baseyear calculations for convenience.
Gas and diesel heavy duty vehicle and motorcycle emissions are assumed
over the study period.
     Projected emissions are based upon the projected VMT and emission
factors.  The projected emission factors are calculated below:
E~ = -731  (ELDV) + -°" (ELDT} + -06 (EHDV gas)  + '°6 (EHDV diesel
       o
            + -049 (Emc).
                                    5-2

-------
     "1980
.731  (.45)  +  .099  (.48)  +  .06  (1.21)  + .06(1.60)  + .049  (.16)
,533  gm/m1le.
     -1985
.731  (.51) + .099 (.52) + .06 (1.21) + .06 (1.60) + (.049 (.16)
,601  gm/mlle.
The projected emissions from motor vehicles are given 1n Table 5-2.  The
emissions are portrayed 1n the gridded format 1n Figure 5-1.
              TABLE 5-2.  PROJECTED MOTOR VEHICLE PARTICULATE
                          EMISSIONS
YEAR
1975
1980
1985
EMISSIONS
(tons/day)
11.0
12.9
16.5
5.1.2  Point Sources
     Projections of the. 1972 NEDS data were made by using employment data
from the.Arizona Department of Economic Security [2].  Four categories of
employment were used for projecting point sources:   (1) mining, >quarrying,
and rock crushing, (2) manufacturing, (3) agriculture, and (4) utilities.
By assuming that emissions are proportional to employment activity,
projection factors were developed for each of the first three source
categories (utilities are considered separately later in the section).
     Historical employment totals and projections are shown in Table
5-3 for the minerals industry and for general manufacturing.  These pro-
jections were made by the Arizona Department of Economic Security, and
                                    5-3

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         GRID LfGENC
  GRID
  CODE

   0
   1
   2
   3
        EMISSIONS
        TONS/OAT
n.ooooo TC
 ,00000 TO
 .0003? TO
 .00160 TO
 .00505 TO
 .0123? TO
 ,0?555 TO
 .0473". TO
 .OP075 TG
.OOOOC
.00032
 00160
 00505
 11232
  -.555
                    .08075
                    .12935
                    .19715
Figure 5-1.   Grid  Map  for  Emissions  from  Motor Vehicles,  Daily Average, 1985.
                                            5-4

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will be the basis for projecting in the present inventory.   These growth
factors were applied to the baseyear mineral  and manufacturing emissions
levels to obtain the forecasted levels for 1975, 1980,  and  1985 (the 1975
levels were used for incorporation into the baseyear inventory).
Agricultural employment and crop activity trends are shown  in  Tables 5-4 and
5-5.  Since no employment projections are available  for agriculture, pro-
jection factors were established by considering historical  trends.   The
data in Table 5-4 indicates a downward trend  in employment  with a slight
recent upswing.  A similar trend can be observed in  the agricultural crop
acreage shown in Table 5-5, except that recent activity levels off,  and  the
cropping activity pattern appears to be about two or three  years  ahead of
the employment data.  In view of the diminishing downtrend  pattern  shown by
the data, it appears appropriate to assume a  constant activity level for
agriculture throughout the study period.   Hence, emission levels  related to
agricultural processing activities were assumed to remain unchanged  through
1985.
              TABLE 5-3.  EMPLOYMENT DATA AND PROJECTIONS
                           1972     1973     1974     1975     1980     1985
 Mining, Quarying and
 Rock Crushing	
    Employment              400      400      400      400      529      657
    Growth  From  1972        1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.32     1.64
  Manufacturing
    Employment           74,400   82,900  . 84,200   71,100   95,900  120,700
    Growth  From  1972        1.00     1.11     1.13       .96     1.29     1.62
                                    5-5

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             TABLE 5-4.   AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT IN MARICOPA
                         COUNTY
YEAR
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
EMPLOYMENT
14,400
13,900
13,525
13,400
13,400
13,600
SOURCE:   Arizona Department of Economic Security
            TABLE 5-5.  AGRICULTURAL CROP AREA IN MARICOPA
                        COUNTY
YEAR
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1971
1972
TOTAL CROPPED ACRES
535,000
485,000
524,000
481 ,000
463,000
443,000
443,000
SOURCE:  "Arizona Agricultural"  Annual Bulletin of Cooperative
          Extension Service, Agricultural Experiment Station,
          University of Arizona.

     Beginning late in 1976 or 1977, a new foundary will be producing steel
a few miles south of Chandler [3].  Because production has not yet begun,
future emission levels for the foundry are not clear.   However, with the
use of certain design parameters and a few assumptions, it was possible to
make an estimate for emissions in 1980 and 1985.  The foundary will have two
electric arc furnaces each with a 15 ton capacity.  By assuming that each
furnace is charged at 12 tons and 100 times per week, the operating rate be-
comes 2400 tons per week or 343 tons per day.
                                    5-6

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     The foundary is to install a 120,000 CFM baghouse for furnace emissions
and a baghouse for emissions collected over both the ball  wheel and the
breaker barrels.  It was assumed that the emission factor would be 13 Ib/ton
[typical value from AP-42] and that the baghouses would control 98% of these
emissions.  The calculation of emissions is show below:
          c      /o/n Tons Steel \  /,o Lb Particulates\ /  no\ /I Ton  \
          Eday = {343 	DIP"	 ]  (13    	Ton Steer ('02) IflJfflTlb'

          E.   = .0446 Tons/Day

     The foundary is located on Arizona Avenue, South of Chandler, between
the cross streets Chandler Heights  Road and Riggs Road.  By use of a 7-1/2
minute USGS map and a street map of the area it was determined that the
UTM coordinates are 421.8 km north  and 3676.7 km south to within about
.5 km.
     Projections of power plant fuel use were available from each of the
power companies.  The projections are given on an annual basis for each of
the plants in the study area.  The  baseyear seasonal distributions have
been assumed to apply to the projections with the exception of the Santan
Plant which did not have a complete year of operating data at the time of
this study.  The power company projection data was applied to the baseyear
power plant emission levels to generate seasonal forecasted power plant
emissions in 1980 and 1985.  These  forecasts are shown in Table 5-6.  The
total projected point source emission levels for the study period are shown
below.  The emissions are presented 1n the grid format in Figure 5-2.
There are significant changes  1n the emission levels 1n future years.

          PROJECTED PARTICIPATES EMISSIONS FROM POINT SOURCES
          1975 (Baseyear)                   21.8 tons/day
          1980                              27.0
          1985                              30.8
5.1.3  Stationary Area Sources
     Population growth data (see Section 3.1) were used to project space
heating emissions to 1980 and 1985.  The population distribution was
assumed to be unchanged.  Projected emission levels are shown in Table 5-7.
The emissions are shown 1n the grldded format 1n Figure 5-3.
                                    5-7

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TABLE 5-6.  PROJECTED SEASONAL POWER PLANT EMISSIONS
                      (Tons/Day)
Cross Cut
1980
1985
Agua Fria
1980
1985
Kyrene
1980
1985
Santan
1980
1985
Octillo
1980
1985
West Phoenix
1980
1985
TOTALS
1980
1985
JFM

0
0

0.854
0.528

0.333
0.147

0.840
0.500

0.679
0.530

0.494
0.371
3.200
2.076
AMJ

0
0

0.792
0.490

0.274
0.121

0.778
0.463

0.630
0.491

0.458
0.343
2.932
1.908
JAS

0
0

1.090
0.675

0.325
0.144

1.072
0.638

0.867
0.676

0.631
0.473
3.985
2.606
OND

0
0

0.740
0.458

0.178
0.079

0.728
0.433

0.589
0.459

0.429
0.321
2.664
1.750
ANNUAL AVERAGE

0
0

0.869
0.538

0.277
0.123

0.854
.0.508

0.691
0.539

0.503
0.377
3.194
2.085

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   GRID
   CODE
         GRID  LEGEND
EMISSIONS
TONS/Oir
         0.00000 TO
          .00000 TO
          .00
-------
    6RJD
    CODE
          GPIO LEGEND
EMISSIONS
TONS/DAY
         0.00000 TO
          .00000 TO
          .00003 TO
          .00013 TU
          .00040 TO
         _ -oooie TO
          .00303 TO
          .00376 TO
    .00000
    .00003
    .00013
    .00040
    .00098
    . 00*03
    .0017*
    .00*41
           ___
          .01027 TO
                     .01565
Figure 5-3.   Grid  Map  for  Emissions  from  Stationary Area Sources,  Dally
                Average,  1985.
                                           5-10

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                 TABLE 5-7.  AREA EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS

Distillate Oil
Natural Gas
TOTAL
(Tons/Year)
(Tons/Day)
1975
(Tons/Year)
156.0
350.6

506.6
1.39
1980
(Tons/Year)
198.7
446.7

645.4
1.77
1985
(Tons/Year)
233.4
524.8

758.2
2.08
5.1.4  AIRCRAFT
     Projections for 1980 and 1985 were developed by utilizing airport
growth rates from the Arizona Aviation Systems Plan [5].  These growth
rates are shown for each of the five major airports in Table 5-8.  Pro-
jected activity levels for the two military airports were not available.
Activity levels  there were assumed to remain constant through 1985.
Adjustment of baseyear inventory by the growth rates shown in Table 5-8
yields the forecasted aircraft emission levels (Table 5-9).
                 TABLE 5-8.  ANNUAL OPERATIONS* AND PROJECTIONS FOR
                             FIVE MAJOR CIVILIAN AIRPORTS IN PHOENIX AREA

                                           Operations (1000)

Sky Harbor
Falcon Field
Phoenix Litchfield
Scottsdale
Phoenix Dear Valley
* An operation is either
1975
328
272
214
202
164
a landing or a
1980
453
383
294
346
196
takeoff
1990
688
705
502
598
299

                                    5-11

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                                TABLE 5-9.  EMISSION ESTIMATES  FOR  AIRCRAFT
                                                                       Emissions  (Tons/Day)
en
r
ro
AIRPORT
Sky Harbor
Falcon Field
Scottsdale
Phoenix Litchfield
Phoenix Dear Valley
Williams AFB
Luke AFB

TOTAL

1975
.190
.008
.007
.004
.003
.093
.054

.359

1980
.262
.011
.012
.005
.004
.093
.054

.440

1985
.330
.016
.017
.007
.005
.093
.054

.520
i

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5.2  ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES

     This section discusses the methodology employed in projecting emissions

from vehicles on unpaved roads, agricultural tilling, aggregate storage piles,

cattle feedlots, off-road motor vehicles and the entrainment of fugitive

dust by motor vehicles on paved roads.

5.2.1  Motor Vehicles on Unpaved Roads

     Several studies were examined in an attempt to predict future trends of

both miles of unpaved roads and traffic volumes on unpaved roads [6,7,8,9,10].

These documents, however, proved to be  of no assistance, as their predictions
were based on road-functional classifications (i.e. collector and local streets,

interstate highways) and not on road surface type.  An attempt was then made
to extrapolate past trends of unpaved road mileages.  However, no discernable

trends were found to exist.

     Ultimately, knowledgeable officials at both the county and city levels

were contacted and their expertise solicited.  The following sections detailed

the information received:
     (1)  The Maricopa County Highway Department - the County has historically
          paved approximately 50 miles of unpaved roadways per year.  Three
          criteria govern the selection of roads to be paved - (1) ADT, (2)
          development of subdivisions and (3) accident reports from the
          Sheriff's Department.   Thus, no systematic pattern exists.  There
          is a County ordinance requiring the paving of all streets in new
          County subdivisions.  This ordinance, however, is not retroactive.
          No new unpaved roads are expected to be created in the future due
          to this ordinance.

     (2)  Phoenix - the city, in 1960, embarked upon a program to upgrade
          all substandard streets,* with a goal of 30 miles per year in mind.
          The actual trend has been closer to 18 miles per year.  Most of the
          unpaved roads are in existing subdivisions, with a very small por-
          tion in commercial and industrial areas.  No new unpaved roads are
          expected to come into existence, as there is a city ordinance re-
          quiring all streets in new subdivisions to be paved.
*A substandard street is one that is not paved and does not have gutters and
 curbs.  Thus both unpaved streets as well as paved ones without gutters and
 curbs are classified as substandard.  In Phoenix, only collector and local
 streets are substandard.
                                    5-13

-------
     (3)  Mesa - there are presently only 17 miles  of unpaved streets in
          Mesa.   Of these, 10 miles are in subdivisions  and the remaining
          7 miles are arterials.   The city is paving the arterials through
          capital improvement programs and expects  to be through by 1985.
          The residential  unpaved streets are improved only when the local
          residents form Improvement Districts.   All new subdivisions are
          required to have paved  streets.
     (4)  Scottsdale, Chandler, Glendale, Temne, Paradise Valley - the sit-
          uation 1s similar in all these cities; thus they will
          be discussed as  a unit.  Almost all unpaved roads are located in
          existing subdivisions,  with a very small  percentage as arterials.
          Residential unpaved roads are paved only  through the formation
          of Improvement Districts.  There is no schedule to pave the art-
          erial  streets.  All new subdivisions are  required to have paved
          streets.
     To summarize the situation in Maricopa County, it appears that no new
(i.e.  not presently existing) unpaved roads will be created in the future.
In all cities except for Phoenix, there will still  be unpaved roads, of which
almost all are in existing subdivisions.  These are not  expected to be paved
very rapidly, as the number of miles paved through  the formation of Improve-
ment Districts has been extremely low historically  (on the order of 2-4 miles
in the last 10 year period).   As  for Phoenix, the majority of existing unpaved
streets will probably be paved by 1985.
     One fact complicates  the projection of mileages of  unpaved roads on a
spatial basis.  Phoenix and its neighboring cities  have  historically experienced
a rapid increase in population and can be expected  to continue experiencing
this trend.  County land is annexed and the cities  assume responsibility for
the maintenance of all roads  in the annexed land.  What  plans the cities may
have to pave unpaved roads in these annexed areas is unknown.  As TRW's data
on the spatial distribution of unpaved roads is on  a maintenance area basis,
the removal of mileages and the uncertainty as to the disposition of unpaved
roads in the annexed lands requires several assumptions  to be made.

 Projections for Maricopa  County
      In the city of Phoenix, all  existing unpaved  roads  (121  miles)  will
 be  paved at the rate of 11 miles/year.   This figure is  derived from the fact
 that  the rate of upgrading substandard streets  in  Phoenix  is  18 miles/year
 and 121  of the  remaining  200 miles of substandard  streets  are unpaved  [(121/200)
 x (18)  = 10.89  or 11].  For  Mesa,  25% of the 10 miles of  unpaved  residential

                                    5-14

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roads are assumed to be paved by 1980 and 50% by 1985.  The remaining 7 miles
of unpaved arterial roads are expected to be paved by 1985.  For 1980, it is
assumed that 3 of the 6 miles will be paved.  In the remaining cities (Scotts
dale, Chandler, Tempe, Glendale and Paradise Valley), all existing unpaved
streets will be assumed to be paved (through the formation of Improvement
Districts) at the following rate - 25% of the total unpaved mileage to be
paved by 1980 and 50% of the total by 1985.  (This strategy assumes that all
unpaved roads in the remaining cities are in residential areas.  This 1s a
plausible assumption, as the majority of the unpaved roads are 1n resi-

dential areas).

     To estimate the future distribution of unpaved road mileages, the

following procedure was employed:

     (1)  Figure 5-4 illustrates the urbanized areas in Maricopa County
          in 1985.  By overlaying a map showing the present boundaries
          of urbanization, the locations of future growth were deter-
          mined.

     (2)  A second overlay depicting the Highway Department maintenance
          areas was then utilized to determine the expansion of urbani-
          zation into each maintenance area.

     (3)  A third overlay with the network of all road types* was also
          placed over Figure 5-4 and the first two overlays to obtain:
             a.  The mileages of a1J_ road types in a maintenance area.
             b.  The mileages of all road types in the urbanized portion
                 of a maintenance area.

     (4)  To determine the mileage of unpaved roads in the urbanized
          portion of a maintenance area, the following procedures was
          implemented:
            a.   Calculate the percentage:
C  =
 p ~
     = Miles of all road types in the urbanized area of a maintenance area
     ~           Miles of all road types in the maintenance area
            b.   Multiply Cp times the miles of unpaved roads in the
                maintenance area (given in Table 4-11) to obtain the
                miles of unpaved roads in the urbanized portion of the
                maintenance area.
*This overlay was adopted from road maps provided by the Arizona Department
 of Transportation.  Although they do not illustrate all road types in the
 County, these maps were the best available for spatial distribution.


                                   5-15

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en

                                                                                 L  E G E N D
                                                                                 EXISTING  OR  POTENTIAL  URBANIZED  AREAS
                                                                                 AGRICULTURE
                                                                                 MAJOR PARKS AND OTHER  OPEN SPACE AREAS
                                                                                 AIRPORTS AND MILITARY RESERVATIONS
                                                                                 DESERT  OR   MOUNTAIN  AREAS
                                                                                 FREEWAY
                                                                                 MAJOR HIGHWAY
                                                                                 SCENIC  HIGHWAY
                                                                                 HIKING AND RIDING TRAIL
                                                                                 MAJOR WATERWAY
                                                                                 FLOOD CONTROL STRUCTURE
                                                                          Figure 5-4.   Future General Land  Use,
                                                                                        Maricopa County, Arizona  [15].

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  (5)  As an example of Steps (1) through (4), consider maintenance area
      I-F.  From Steps (1), (2) and (3), 1t was determined that 38% of
      all the roads 1n I-F would fall Into urbanized portions by 1985.
      From Table 3-4, plus the assumption 40% of all county maintained
      unpaved roads are gravel, the total miles of unpaved roads 1n I-F
      is 137 (93 dirt miles and 44 gravel miles).  Thus (.38) x (93 miles)
      = 35 miles of dirt and (.38) x (44) = 17 miles of gravel roads are
      allocated to the urbanized section of Area I-F 1n 1985.

  (6)  This methodology is performed for  each maintenance area subject
      to urbanization and the  results can be seen in Table 5-10.

  (7)  All mileages of dirt and gravel roads determined in Steps (1) -
      (6) are assumed to be paved by 1985. .

  (8)  Since it  is assumed that the Highway Department paves  50 miles
      of road/year, it is expected that  500 miles of paving  will occur
      from 1975 to 1985.  Steps  (1) - (6) account for only 372 of these
      miles (see Table 5-10).  The assumption is made that the remaining
      128 miles of roadway to  be paved in this period will be done
      according to transportation needs  indirectly associated with
      urbanization.  Therefore,  the remaining 128 miles is distributed
      proportionally among the maintenance areas subject to  urbanization.
      The proportionality constant is determined by dividing the total
      miles of  road to be paved  in each  maintenance area by  the total
      number of miles of road  to be paved in all maintenance areas.
      For instance, according  to Table 5-10, 35 miles of dirt and 17
      miles of  gravel roads in area I-F  are due to be paved  by 1985.
      The proportionality constants are:


                          Dirt = |yg- x 100 = 9%

                         Gravel  = ij=r x  100 = 4%
      Thus, (.09) x (128) = 12 additional  miles of dirt roads and
      (0.4) x (128) = 5 additional  miles of gravel roads will be
      paved by 1985.  The total mileages of unpaved roads to be
      paved in I-F are:

Dirt = 35 (due to urbanization) + 12 (due to indirect needs) = 47 miles

Gravel = 17 (due to urbanization) + 5 (due to indirect needs) = 22 miles

 (9)  Fifty percent of the paving in all maintenance areas by 1985
      is assumed to occur by 1980.

(10)  In addition to the  change in  miles of unpaved roads,  the ADT
      in all  maintenance  areas  and  cities  is assumed to increase at
      the same rate which the  population is expected to Increase from
      1975 to 1980 to 1985 [1].

                         1975—"1980 :  27.4%
                         1975—^ 1985 :  49.7%


                                  5-17

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                    TABLE 5-10.  PROJECTION OF UNPAVED ROAD MILEAGES IN MARICOPA COUNTY
Maintenance Areas
Subject to Urbanization
! 1n Study Area
I-B
I-C
1-0
I-E
l-F
II-A
II-B
II-E
III-A
III-B
III-C
Ill-li
HI-I
IV-B
IV-C
IV-D
IV-E
TOTAL
Percent of Total Road Mileage
of the Maintenance Ares In the
Urbanized Portion of the
Maintenance Area
2
3
15
3
38
33
12
3
12
3
2
6
99
30
2
2
5

Miles of Unpaved Roads in
1975 in Maintenance Area
Dirt
147
72
71
94
93
197
125
103
101
109
68
72
61
52
72
142
92
1671
Gravel
44
30
32
45
44
77
54
51
38
55
28
31
23
17
30
77
44
720
Miles of Unpaved Roads to be
Paved Due to Urbanization in
each Maintenance Area in 1985
Dirt
3
22
11
3
35,
65
15
3
12
3
1
4
60
16
1
3
5
262
Gravel
1
9
5
1
17
28
7
2
5
2
1
2
23
5
1
2
2
110
Paving Proportionality
Constant, C a
Dirt
1
6
3
1
9
17
4
1
3
1
0.5
1
16
4
0.5
1
1
70
Gravel
0.5
2
1
0.5
4
6
2
1
1
1
0.5
1
5
1
0.5
1
1
30
Total Miles of Paved Road in
Each Maintenance Area in 1985
Dirt
4
30
15
4
47
87
20
4
16
4
2
5
80
21
2
4
6 •
351
Gravel
2
12
6
2
22
33
10
3
6
3
2
3
31
6
2
3
3
149
Total Miles of
in Each Mainte
1910
Dirt
145
52
64
92
70
154
115
101
93
107
67
70
21
42
71
140
89
1498
Gravel
43
24
29
44
33
61
49
50
35
54
28
30
8
14
2S
76
43
'648
Unpaved Roads
nance A'-ea
19 !5
Oirt
143
•42
56
90
46
110
105
99
85
105
66
67
0
31
70
138
86
1339
Gravel
42
18
26
43
22
44
44
48
32
52
26
28
0
11
• 28
74
41
579
in



00

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   (11)  Emission projections are also affected by rainfall predictions
         (See Section 3.1).  Typical meteorology is assumed to prevail
         in 1980 and 1985 as shown below:
Quarter of
year
1
2
3
4
year
Number of days
.01 inch or
more of rain
11
4
12
9
36
Fraction of
.01 inch
of rain
.12
.04
.13
.09
.09
days
or more





Projections for Pinal County

     As no data was available for Pinal  County, it is assumed that no change
in the mileage of unpaved roads will  occur.   The ADT is expected to increase
at the following rate:

                          1975 — 1980 :  27.4%
                          1975—* 1985 :  49.7%

Projections for the Total Study Area
      Dust emissions from unpaved roads increase from 1281 tons/day in 1975
to 1553 tons/day in 1985.  The distribution of the emissions change as
improvement programs will reduce the number of unpaved roads in the metro-
politan area.  An  increasing portion of the unpaved road emissions will
be generated  at the perimeter of the urban areas and outside the boundaries
of the city of Phoenix.  Figure 5-5 presents the grid map of emissions
arising from  unpaved roads as forecast for 1985.  Figure 5-6 "illustrates
graphically the distribution of unpaved road dust emissions.

5.2.2   Agricultural  Tilling
      Knowledgeable personnel at the College of Agriculture, University of
Arizona [13]  were  consulted as to projected growths or declines in cropland
average.  These conversations revealed that total crop acreages in Maricopa
and Pinal Counties have not changed substantially in the last 26 years
                                   5-19

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GRID
CODE

 0
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 6
 7
 8
. 9
EMISSIONS
TONS/DAY

0 to 0
0 to 005
0 to .02
.02 to .07
.07 to .18
.18 to .37
.37 to .68
.68 to 1.2
1.2 to 1.9
1.9 to 2.8
     Figure 5-5.   Grid Map for Dust Emissions  from Motor Vehicles  on
                     Unpaved Roads,  1985.
                                           5-20

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in
i
ro
      Figure 5-6,
Dust Emissions Arising from

Motor Vehicles on Unpaved Roads,

Daily Average, 1985.

-------
and are not expected to vary greatly in the next ten year period.   This
was partially verified by examining the acreages committed to major crops
in Maricopa County over the previous eight years.   As agriculture  is a
major industry in Arizona and especially Maricopa County, it is not sur-
prising to expect a fairly steady trend.
     However, as the metropolitan Phoenix area has grown at an extremely
rapid pace in the previous ten years and is expected to continue expanding,
the location of croplands will change.   To document this phenomena, land
use maps for 1985 [17] were examined and compared to present locations of
croplands.  This procedure permitted an adjustment to be made to the
township-by-township agricultural acreage distributions described in
Section 3.2.2.  A comparison of total agricultural acreages in 1985
and 1975 revealed a decline of only 31,000 acres, thus verifying the
observations made in the foregoing paragraph.  For 1980, a linear inter-
polation scheme was adopted, where 50% of the increase or decrease  in
crop acreage from 1975 to 1985 in a given township is assumed.

     Although crop type acreages may vary substantially from year to year
(depending on national and international supply and demand), this variation
is unpredictable in the long term, hence, it was assumed that distribution
of cropland by crop type would remain unchanged from 1975.
     The projected 1980 and 1985 emissions from agricultural tilling are
obtained by adjusting the 1975 baseyear inventory to reflect the changes
discussed above.  The emissions forecasts are portrayed 1n the gridded
format of Figure 5-7, and the emissions distribution is presented graphic-
ally in Figure 5-8.  The change in magnitude of tilling emissions is ex-
pected to be Insignificant from 1975 to 1985, however, the distribution
of these emissions is expected to be altered noticeably as urban expansion
claims existing croplands and new croplands are established in turn.
5.2.3  Aggregate Storage Piles
     Projection of fugitive dust emissions are based on employment  projec-
tions for the minerals^industry (see Section 3.0):
                        1975 — 1980  +32%
                        1975 — 1985  +64%
                                    5-22

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GRID
CODE
EMISSIONS
TCNS/Dtr
       .onnno  TO
       ,00000  TL
       .oroop  TO
       .OnO<,7.  TO
       .0013?  TO
       .003??  TO
       .006*"  TO
       .01737  TO
       .07110  10
       .03380  TO
    .00000
    .00006
    .000', 2
    .00132
    .00322
    .03068
    .01237
    .0211Q
    .03360
    .C5151
       Figure 5-7.   Grid Map  for  Emissions  Arising  from  Agricultural
                       Tilling,  1985.
                                           5-23

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en ;
i
ro
           Figure 5-8.   Forecast of Agricultural  Tilling Emissions, Daily Average,  1985.

-------
     To obtain  the projected emissions  levels, the baseyear inventory of

 aggregate  pile  emissions is adjusted to reflect the employment forecasts.

 Table  5-11  summarizes the emissions forecasts.  The location and number of

 sources are assumed  to remain unchanged.


                 TABLE 5-11.   PROJECTED FUGITIVE  DUST  EMISSIONS
                              FROM AGGREGATE STORAGE  PILES
Year
1980
1985
Emissions, tons/day
.073
.091
 5.2.4  Cattle Feedlots

      The Maricopa County Agricultural Agent [14] was consulted as to
 future trends in cattle feedlot sizes.  The following facts are -
 pertinent:

      •  As is the case with most agricultural  products, cattle feed-
         ing depends greatly upon the weather conditions and the
         nationwide economy.  Thus, trends are extremely difficult
         to predict.
      •  The number of cattle on feed in the study area (see Table
         3-17) during 1975 represents a low year; only 40%-60% of
         the capacity of the feedlots were utilized.   The corres-
         ponding figures for 1976 should be up  to 80% capacity.

      •  The best guess estimate for the 1975-1985 period given by
         the Agricultural Agent is that the number of cattle on feed
         should be at least 50% greater than the number on feed in
         1975.


Thus, the methodology employed to predict future emissions consists of
adjusting the baseyear inventory to reflect an  increase 1n the number
of cattle-on-feed by 50 % for both 1980 and 1985.  Accordingly, emissions
are increased by 50% over the baseyear levels (see Table 5-12).


 5.2.5  Off-Road Motor Vehicles

      As off-road vehicle use is a recreational  activity, the projections
 will be proportional to the growth rate in population as forecasted by
                                   5-25

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            TABLE 5-12.  PROJECTED FUGITIVE DUST EMISSIONS FROM
                         CATTLE FEEDLOTS IN THE STUDY AREA

                County           1980 and 1985 Emissions
                                     tons/day

                Maricopa             3.2
                Final                5.1
                Total, study area   -*8.3
the Maricopa Association of Governments [I].1
The location of off-road vehicle activity 1s assumed to remain unchanged
with the exception of the area of Sun City, where it is assumed off-road
activity will be eliminated due to planned urban expansion and local
ordinances.  The projected emissions are summarized in Table 5-13.
             TABLE 5-13.  PROJECTED EMISSIONS FROM OFF-ROAD
                          MOTOR VEHICLES
                                          Emissions (tons/day)
                                     1980          1985
Motorcycles
Motor Vehicles
Total
68.0
23.0
91.0
80.0
27.0
.107-.0
5.2.6  Construction Activities
     Based on the general future land use plan for Maricopa County [15],
urbanization development is expected to occur at the rate of 18.7 square
miles per year from 1973 to 1990.  Figure 5-4 shows the forecasted area
which will be developed by 1990.  The developed portion represents 640
square miles.  By contrast, the existing urbanized area in 1973 comprised

                                   5-26

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some 323 square miles.
     Estimates of land  areas involved in construction for 1980 and 1985
were assumed to be consistent with the forecasts of the County General
Plan.  18.7 square miles of new urbanization development occurs annually.
Roadway construction improvements also contribute a significant amount
of additional soil disturbance, and consequently, dust emissions.   These
improvements are expected to occur at the rates shown in Table 5-14.
Expected dust emissions arising from these activities are also shown in
Table 5-14.  These dust emissions may be located within the computerized
emissions grid as area  sources spread throughout the region of agency
jurisdiction, except for those activities of the State Highway Department,
which were located according to the forecasted State Highway Future General
Plan [16].

      TABLE 5-14.  ANNUAL STREET IMPROVEMENTS SCHEDULED FOR MARICOPA
                   COUNTY OVER NEXT TEN YEAR PERIOD.

Agency         Improvements         Acres of Soil      Emissions Average
                miles/year           Disturbed           tons/day
County
Phoenix
Glendale
Paradise Valley
Scottsdale
Chandler
Mesa
Tempe
State Highway
Dept.
20a
40b
lc
lc
1.2C
.4C
1.7C
.3C
37
a. Representative value based on
b. This value
is based on target*
133
274
6.7
6.7
8.0
2.7
11.4
2.0
360
804.5
previous
id 20 mill
1.8
3.6
.1
.1
.1
_
.2
-
7.1
13.0
years [17].
2/year rate of the Improvement
      District for upgrading local streets, and a 20 mile/year program of
      the Traffic Department for improvment of major streets in 1980[18,19]
  c.  Based on conservative assumption that improvements by cities will at
      least account for upgrading all unpaved roads by 1985.
                                    5-27

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     Development of 18.7 square miles of land in 1980 and 1985 (assuming
an active construction duration of 6 months)  will  result in an estimated
dust loading of 86,300 tons/year, or an average of 246 tons of dust
emissions per day.  The location of the development will proceed outward
from the center of the cities in the Phoenix  area.  A geometric mapping
procedure was used to estimate the location of the construction activity
in 1980 and 1985.   Isolines reflecting the constant rate of expanding
development were constructed for the years 1980 and 1985 by interpolating
between the boundaries of the existing developed area and that developed
area forecasted by the 1990 Future General Land Use Plan.  The differen-
tial development in the years 1980 and 1985 was assumed to occur within
a growth belt representing the expanded urbanization over the past five
year period.  The forecasted dust emissions loadings were apportioned
according to the relative area of the growth  belt in each of the grid
squares of the computerized emissions grid networks.  The distribution
is illustrated on the grid map of Figure 5-9, and on the three-dimensional
graphical emissions portrayal of Figure 5-10.  It can be seen that dust
from construction emissions is being generated further away from the down-
town Phoenix area as development proceeds in  future years.  Comparison
of the  forecasted total dust emissions levels with the 1975 baseyear con-
firms the relatively low degree of construction activity in 1975.

                   Year              Dust Emissions from Construction
                                                tons/day
                   1975      -                     100
                   ]980                           254
                   1985                           256
5.2.7  Suspension of Dust from Paved Roads
     Roadway improvements expected to be implemented over the next ten
years will  incur significant impact on street dust loadings.  Due to a
local roads improvement program in the city, the 200 existing miles of
substandard city local streets will be upgraded by 1985.  In addition,
rnajor streets will be renovated at the rate of about 20 miles per year.

                                    5-28

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GRID
CODE

 0
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 6
 7
 8
 9
 EMISSIONS
 TONS/DAY

  0 to 0
  0 to .001
.001 to .005
.005 to .01
.01 to .04
.04 to .08
.08 to .15
.15 to .27
.27 to .43
.43 to .64
     Figure 5-9.   Grid Map for Total  Dust Emissions from Construction
                    Activities  1n 1985.
                                       5-29

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en
i
u>
o
            Figure 5-10.  Forecast of Dust Emissions from Construction Activities, Daily Average, 1985.

-------
Considering both local and major improvements, some 400 miles of city
streets will be upgraded by 1985.  Since there are some 120 miles of
unpaved streets in the city at present, it may be reasonably assumed
these will be paved by 1985.  Further, it was assumed that the remaining
280 miles of street improvements was directed toward upgrading uncurbed
streets.  The impact of these improvements on total mileage of uncurbed
streets in the city is shown below:
                       Miles of Uncurbed City Streets
      Road Type        1975       1980       1985
Local
Collectors
and Major
142
329

72
260

0
191

This data is important because dust loadings on streets with uncurbed road
shoulders is four times less than that observed on curbed streets(see Section
3.7).
    Most of the improvements in the county will consist of paving dirt
or gravel roads.  The county improvement program will  probably exert
only minor impact on the mileage of paved county roads currently unpaved.
     Projections of dust emissions in 1980 and 1985 were based on pop-
ulation projections as discussed in Section 5.1.  These projections were
applied to the existing traffic network.  The adjusted emission factor
reflecting newly curbed streets was calculated by weighting the emission
factors for uncurbed streets and curbed streets relative to the proportion
of each of these street configurations in 1980 and 1985.  The resulting
emission factors for application to the baseyear transportation tape are:
                             Dust Suspension Rate, g/vehicle mile
Road Type in 1975            1975          1980        1985

Uncurbed Major and           11.1           9.9         8.7
   Collector

These emission rates are applied to the applicable streets in the city
and unincorporated cities only, while emission rates remain unchanged
for uncurbed roads in the county.  At the same time, VMT changes in 1980

                                   5-31

-------
and 1985 cause associated increases in total dust suspension levels in
both the city and county.  The net effect of these changes on particulate
emissions in the study area is summarized below:

                     Year             Suspension of Street Dust
                                            tons/day
                     1975                  248
                     1980                  295
                     1985                  322

     The gridded emissions inventory for suspended street dust in 1985
is shown in Figure 5-11.  The distribution of these fugitive emissions
is shown graphically in Figure 5-12 for 1985.  Street dust emissions and
seen to remain relatively unchanged in the city areas, but increase
significantly in the county.

5.3  WINDBLOWN  FUGITIVE DUST
     This section documents the procedures employed to forecast dust emis-
sions  arising from wind blowing over various types of soil surfaces.  The
emissions forecasts are conducted  for 1980 and 1985.
5.3.1   Unpaved  Roads
     The procedure for estimation  of projected wind erosion emissions from
unpaved roads is the same as that  outlined in Section 4.2.  The adjustments
which  must be applied to the baseyear parameters used in the wind erosion
model  concern:  1) the miles of unpaved roadways in the various grid sec-
tors,  and 2) the Climatic Factor.  The former item is obtained by the con-
siderations outlined in Section 5.2.1.  The  Climatic  Factor, calculated to
reflect typical annual and seasonal meteorology for the study area, is
obtained from Table 4-4.
     Forecasts  of windblown dust off unpaved roads indicate substantial de-
creases from the baseyear levels.  This is due mainly to the assertion that
typical historical meteorology will prevail  in the projected periods.
                                   5-32

-------
GRID
CODE

 0
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 e
 7
 8
 9
EMISSIONS
TONS/DAY

0 to 0
0 to .004
.004 to .02
.02 to .07
.07 to .18
.18 to .37
.37 to .69
.69 to 1.2
1.2 to 1.9
1.9 to 2.9
       Figure  5-11.   Grid  Map  for  Dust Emissions off  Paved  Roads,  1985.
                                              5-33

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CO
         Figure 5-12.  Forecast of Dust Emissions from Paved Roads, Dally Average,  1985,

-------
                QUARTER             TONS/DAY
                               1980      1985
1
2
3
4
Annual
Average
.3
.5
.7
.9
.6

.3
.5
.7
.9
.6

5.3.2  Agricultural Fields
     The procedure for estimating wind erosion emissions  from agricultural
fields 1n 1980 and 1985 1s the same as that outlined 1n Section 4.3.   The
adjustments which must be applied to the baseyear estimates to obtain the
forecasted emissions concern: 1)  the amount of cropland acreage 1n  each
township, and 2) the anticipated Climatic Factor.
     The location of cropland acreage was determined by evaluation  of the
general future land use map for Maricopa County[15] as described in Section
5.2.2.  The total cropland acreage is not expected to change, however,
location of croplands are expected to be displaced by urban expansion.
Consequently, the spatial distribution of wind blown agricultural emissions
will change, and the magnitude of emission levels will be affected  slightly
due to changes 1n soil errodibillty.  Distribution of crop acreage  by crop
type was assumed to remain constant in future years.
     The most dramatic.changes 1n windblown agricultural  emissions  levels
are attributable to variations 1n climate.  Assuming that historical  clima-
tic averages will prevail in future years, the crop-specific Climatic Fac-
tors for 1980 and 1985 are estimated to be approximately  half of the value
in the baseyear (when it was drier and more windy than normal).
     The computational procedure of Section 4.3 was employed using  the ad-
justed values of Climatic Factors and soil errodibillty  to obtain the emis-
sions forecast summarized below.
                                    5-35

-------
                     QUARTER             TONS/DAY
                                     1980       1985
1
2
3
4
Average
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
5.3.3  Undisturbed Desert
     One consideration associated with projection of emissions from the
desert surface involves changes in spatial distribution and total source
area.  Desert area is expected to diminish somewhat due to projected urban
expansion.  The total acreage of undisturbed desert in the study area was
estimated by geometric plotting of the 1990 Future General Land Use Map
[15].  The township by township acreage 1n 1980 and 1985 was derived by a
linear interpolation of the diminishing acreage indicated between 1975 and
1990.
     The major parameter involved in estimating future dust emissions from
the desert is the Climatic Factor.  Assuming that precipitation and wind
speed for 1980 and 1985 will reflect historical averages for the study area,
the Climatic Factors of Table 4-4 must be employed to derive the emission
forecasts.
     Based on the forecasted acreages of undisturbed desert land and Cli-
matic Factors, emissions of dust off the desert pavement are estimated as
shdwn below.  The future emissions levels are estimated to be substantially
less than were,estimated 1n the baseyear.  The reduction is attributable   •
principally to the assumed change 1n climatology, as the change in total
desert acreage is insignificant.

                      QUARTER               TONS/DAY
                                       1975        1980      1985
1
2
3
4
160
244
321
450
66
112
104
56
66
112
104
56
                      Average          294          85        85

                                    5-36

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5.3.4  Tailings Piles
     The change in quantities of windblown dust off tailings piles in future
years was estimated by assuming that the size of the mineral waste heaps
would grow in proportion to employment in the minerals industry.   This
expected growth in employment is 32% from 1975 to 1980, and 64% from 1975
to 1985 (see Section 5.1.2).  The general location of the tailings piles is
not expected to change.  The emissions forecast for 1980 and 1985 is 1.9
and 2.3 tons/day, respectively.
5.3.5  Disturbed Soil Surfaces
     Forecasts of windblown dust off vacant lots, unpaved parking lots and
dirt residence yards were calculated by adjusting baseyear estimates to
reflect changes 1n two parameters:  the Climatic Factor, and the amount of
disturbed soil surface.  These parameters are directly related to windblown
emissions levels.
     The change 1n Climatic Factor from 1975 to future years is determined
by assuming that the historical annual meteorology will prevail.   The expec-
ted annual and seasonal meteorology has been calculated previously in Table
4-4.
     Projection of the amount of vacant lands was based on the estimate
that 15% of all potential urban area would be vacant in 1990, and that 50%
of such potential urban area was vacant in 1973 [15].  This rate of decrease
in vacant land was applied to the amount of vacant land Inventoried for
1975 (see Section 4.6) to obtain the adjusted levels for 1980 and 1985.
     The amount of exposed soil from 'dirt residence yards in the study area
was assumed to increase in proportion to population growth through 1985.
Accordingly, the Increase from 1975 to 1980 1s 27%, and from 1975 to 1980
the Increase 1s 50%.
     The spatial distribution of the disturbed soil surfaces was assumed
unchanged.  There was no legitimate basis for altering the distribution
based on available Information, and the assumption that vacant land inven-
toried in 1975 would diminish evenly throughout the study area, was con-
sidered plausible.  Similarly, the assumption that the number of dirt
residence yards would expand in the vicinity where they are now concen-
trated (economically depressed areas) seems plausible.

                                    5-37

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     The future expected levels of windblown dust emissions from disturbed

soil surfaces is summarized below.  Changes in the levels are affected
mostly by the assumption that "normal" meteorology will  prevail  in the
future, as contrasted to the "unusual" climatological  conditions in 1975
which favored high levels of windblown dust emissions.

                QUARTER                TONS/DAY
                                 1980           1985

                   1              85             43
                   2             151             77
                   3             138             70
                   4              77             39
                 Annual          114             58
                                    5-38

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                     REFERENCES FOR SECTION 5.0
 1.   Maricopa Association of Governments,  "Maricopa  County  Projected  Popula-
     tion Summary Page,"   Pamphlet with  preliminary  census  projections,
     September, 1975.
 2.   Personal Communication, W1lma Richard of the  Arizona Department  of
     Economic Security,  Labor Force Statistics Division, Phoenix,  March,
     1976.
 3.   Telephone Communication, Greg Witherspoon of  the Maricopa  County Depart-
     ment of Health, April,  1976.
 4.   U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, "Compilation of  Air  Pollutant
     Emission Factors,"  Supplement No.  5,  December 1975.
 5.   Arizona Department  of Aeronautics,  "State of  Arizona Aviation Systems
     Plan, 1974-1993," December,  1973.
 6.   Wilbur Smith and Associates,  L.H.  Bell  and Associates, "Highway  Needs
     and Fiscal Study- Arizona's  Future  Highways," December 1967.
 7.   Arizona Department  of Transportation, "First  Biennial  Statewide  Trans-
     portation Needs Report  to the Arizona Legislature," Phoenix,  Arizona,
     January 1976.
 8.   Arizona Highway Department,  Planning  Survey Division,  "Preliminary
     Report on Future Highway and  Street Needs, Maricopa County, Arizona,"
     Phoenix, Arizona, June  1970.
 9.   Arizona Highway Department,  "Future Highway and Street Needs, Pinal
     County, Arizona," Phoenix, Arizona, May ..-1969.
10.   Technical Advisory  Committee, "Arizona Highway  Studies," January 1968.
11.   Maricopa County Highway Department, personal  communication, March 1976.
12.   Arizona Department  of Transportation, Planning  Survey  Group,  "Status
     of Road Systems Mileage," Phoenix,  Arizona, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975.
13.   College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson), personal
     communication, April 1976.
14.   Maricopa County Agricultural  Agent, personal  communication, April 1976.
15.   Maricopa County Planning Department,  "A Report Upon Future General Land
     Use for Maricopa County, Arizona,"  February 1975.
16.   Arizona Department  of Transportation, "Tentative Five  Year Construction
     Program," 1976.
17.   Arizona Highway Department,  personal  communication, April  1976.

                                    5-39

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18.  City of Phoenix Traffic Department,  personal  communication, April  1976.

19.  City of Phoenix, Arizona,  "1975 Accelerated Major  Street  Program,"  July
     1975.
                                    5-40

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                                    TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                             (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
     EPA-450/3-77-021b
                              2.
                                                             3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
                                                             5. REPORT DATE
     An  Implementation  Plan  for Suspended  Particulate
     Matter in the Phoenix Area, Volume  II,  Emission
     Inventory                                    	
                            1Q77
              6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)

     George Richard, Ronald  Tan, James Avery
                                                             8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
     TRW
     Environmental Engineering Division
     One  Space Park
     Redondo Beach, California
                                                             10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
              11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
                   68-01-3152
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
     U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency
     Office  of Air Quality  Planning and Standards
     Research  Triangle Park,  N.C.  27711
              13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED

                   Final	
              14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
                                                                  200/04
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
                      Volume  I,  Air Quality Analysis - EPA  450/3-77-021a;  Volume II
     Emission  Inventory - EPA 450/3-77-021b;  Volume III, Model  Simulation of Total
                ParHrulatP Mat-t-or lowolc  - FPfl  Zmn/T-77-091^ •  Wnlnmo TW   rrm + v»r.l
16. ABSTRAC
             Strategy Formulation - EPA 450/3-77-021d
     This document is one volume of a four volume report presenting an implementation
     plan for  control of suspended particulate  matter in the  Phoenix area,
17.
                                 KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS  C. COSATI Field/Group
     Particulate  Matter
     Total Suspended Particulate
     Emission Sources
     Fugitive Dust
     Emission Factors
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT


     Release Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
    Unclassified
                                                                           21. NO. OF PAGES
216
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
    Unclassified
                            22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77)   PREVIOUS EDITION is OBSOLETE
                                             5-41

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