vyEPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
EPA-450/4-83-003
October 1982
Air
Evaluation of Rural
Air Quality
Simulation Models
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EPA-450/4-83-003
Evaluation of Rural
Air Quality
Simulation Models
by
Richard Londergan, David Minott,
David Wackier, Thomas Kinca>d and David Bonitata
TRC Environmental Consultants, Inc.
800 Connecticut E.oulevard
East Hartford, CT06108
Contract No. 68-02-3514
Prepared for
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Monitoring and Data Analysis Division
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
October 1982
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PREFACE
This report summarizes performance statistics tor a number of "rural"
point source models. In the preparation ot these performance statistics,
every effort was made to tollow the "letter and intent1' ot recommendations
resulting from the AMS Workshop on Dispersion Model Performance held in 1980.
The purpose ot the report is two-fold. First, it serves to document for
the models considered, and similar models, their relative performance.
Second, it provides the basis for a peer scientific review of the models.
To stay within the spirit of this latter purpose, the report is limited to a
tactual presentation of information and performance statistics. No attempt
is made to interpret the statistics or to provide direction to the reader,
lest reviewers might be biased.
This is the first attempt to prepare such a comprehensive performance
evaluation using the AMS recommendations. Future evaluations ot other model
categories are planned.
11
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CONTENTS
Preface ii
Figures iv
Tables v
1. Introduction 1
2. Air Quality Data Base 3
3. Statistics Approach 7
Data Sets For Comparison of Observed and Predicted
Concentrations 7
Peak Concentrations 9
Comparisons of All Concentrations 11
Statistical Analysis of Model Performance 12
4. Description of Analysis System and Models 17
Description of Clifty Creek Data Archive 19
Description of Models and Model Runs 20
Description of Statistical Evaluation Procedures 30
5. Model Performance Results 32
6. Conclusions and Recommendations 62
References 65
APPENDICES
A Statistics for 25 Highest Values
B Statistics for All Events
C Statistics for Highest Concent ration at Each Station
D Comparisons of Highest Values for Various Pairings
E Selected Model Evaluation Input Data
F Statistics for Revised MPSDM Fans
iii
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FIGURES
Number Page
1 Field Monitoring Network Near the Clifty Creek Power Plant ... 5
2 Flow of Data Through the System for Evaluation Air Quality Models 18
3 Cumulative Frequency Distributions of Observed and
MPTER-Predicted Concentrations 38
iv
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TABLES
Number Page
1 Summary of Data Sets for Rural Model Evaluation with Clifty
Creek Data Base 8
2 Statistical Estimators and Basis for Confidence Limits on
Performance Measures 13
3 Principal Technical Features of the CRSTER/MPTER Model and
Technical Differences Between It and Other Models As Run
for This Study 22
4 Difference of Observed and Predicted Averages of the 25 Highest
S02 Concentration Values (Unpaired in Time or Location) . . 40
5 Difference of Observed and Predicted Averages of the 25 Highest
S02 Concentration Values (Unpaired in Time or Location) . . 45
6 Average Difference Between Observed and Predicted
Concentration Values Event-By-Event (Paired in Time) 50
7 Average Difference Between Observed and Predicted
Concentration Values Event-By-Event (Paired in Time) 53
8 Comparison of Maximum Observed and Maximum Predicted
Concentration Values 56
9 Comparison of Maximum Observed and Maximum Predicted
Concentration Values 59
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
In March 1980 EPA published a notice in the Federal Register which pro-
vided an opportunity for organizations to submit dispersion models for pos-
sible inclusion in the next revision of EPA's "Guideline on Air Quality
Models." A large number of models were submitted in response to this
notice. To decide in an objective manner which models in the "rural"
category should be included in the guideline and what recommendations should
be made concerning the use of these dispersion models for regulatory
applications, EPA has undertaken a systematic evaluation. TRC, working
under contract to EPA, has assembled an air quality data base, set up and
run the dispersion models, and produced statistical comparisons of observed
and predicted air quality. These comparisons have been summarized in
tabular form.
In September 1980 the American Meteorological Society (AMS) organized a
workshop (sponsored by EPA) to consider the issue of model performance
evaluation. The 1980 workshop held at Woods Hole, Massachusetts, produced a
report entitled "Judging Air Quality Model Performance". This report
contains recommended statistical procedures for comparing observed air
quality with model predictions. The procedures recommended by the Woods
Hole workshop provided the basis for the statistical comparisons presented
in this report.
The air quality data base to which model predictions were compared was
acquired with a 'six-station network of continuous SO2 monitors in the vi-
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cinity of the Clifty Creek power plant in southern Indiana. Measurements
spanning 2 years, 1975 and 1976, were used in this study. Specific features
ot the data base are described in Section 2.
In Section 3 the statistical approach is descrioed. The set of observed
ana predicted concentration values has oeen sorted in a variety ot ways to
provide statistical model performance comparisons that reflect either high
concentration values or all concentration values, with and without pairing
according to time and space. These data sets are defined, and the specific
statistical tests applied to each are outlined.
The analysis system used by TRC to implement the statistical comparisons
is described in Section 4. This section discusses the data archive, the
dispersion models, and the methodology of the statistical analysis. Partic-
ular attention is devoted to describing the technical differences among the
models (as run for this study) , how model options were selected, and what
modifications were required to obtain model predictions appropriate for this
evaluation.
The results of the study are described in Section 5. The tables ot sta-
tistical comparisons for all models evaluated and for all of the performance
measures recommended by tne AMS workshop are presented in a series of
Appendices (A-D). Summary tables of selected results are presented and
discussed in Section 5. Appendix E provides tables ot hour-oy-hour model
input and ooserved SO- air quality for each of 10 selected days when high
SO concentrations were measured; these data provide a basis for case
study analyses ot selected high-impact episodes.
Finally, in Section 6, conclusions and recommendations from the work
assignment are presented. These conclusions and recommendations are
concerned primarily with the procedures used in the study and possible
improvements for future studies.
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SECTION 2
AIR QUALITY DATA BASE
Under an earlier work assignment, TRC reviewed available data bases
suitable for evaluating model performance. For the rural model category,
two data bases were recommended. The first was the set of air quality,
2
meteorological, and emissions data assembled by Teknekron under EPA con-
tract in 1979 for several Ohio Valley power plants owned by the American
Electric Power Corporation (AEP). The second data set was the Hanford 67
Series tracer dispersion experiments performed at the Hanford reservation ot
the Atomic Energy Commission in central Washington State.
At the outset of this project, TRC acquired the AEP data set, contacting
both EPA and Teknekron staff members familiar with the data. More specific
information regarding data quality, plant operating history, the terrain
surrounding different plants, and the availability of complete data sets was
assembled. The data for the Clifty Creek plant for the years 1975 and 1976
were selected as the most suitable part of the AEP data set for evaluating
rur^l models.
TRC also assembled the Hanford 67 Series data set in preparation for
this study. Subsequently, however, model evaluation with this data set was
deferred because of resource and schedule constraints and because of the
limitations of that data base for testing many of the features that dis-
tinguish the different models being evaluated.
Two years of data (1975 and 1976) from the Clifty Creek power plant data
base have been used to generate two respective sets of model performance
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statistics. The Clifty Creek plant, operated by the Indiana-Kentucky Elec-
tric Corporation, is a coal-fired, base-load facility located along the Ohio
River in southern Indiana. Three 208-meter stacks were used throughout the
study period to vent plant emissions. Terrain surrounding the plant con-
sists of low ridges and rolling hills; however, hill and ridge top eleva-
tions do not exceed stack height. The data base which TRC used was assem-
bled by Teknekron from air quality and meteorological data measured by En-
vironmental Research and Technology (ERT), standard National Weather Service
(NWS) data and plant operating data supplied by AEP.
Hourly air quality data were acquired from a six-station network of con-
tinuous SO monitors (Meloy) located in southern Indiana ana northern
Kentucky and ranging from about 3 to 15 kilometers from the Clifty Creek
plant. Figure 1 illustrates the locations of the monitoring stations rela-
tive to the power plant, and also indicates monitor elevations. Hourly
meteorological data, compiled by Teknekron in the standard format from the
4
Meteorological Preprocessor Program (CRSTER preprocessor), were supplied
to TRC for input to the models. Surface data include hourly values of wind
speed, wind direction and ambient temperature measured in the Clifty Creek
network. The wind speed, measured at the 60-meter level of the Liberty
Ridge meteorological tower (located approximately 3 kilometers south of the
Clifty Creek plant) had been previously reduced (by Teknekron) to the
7-meter level by use of the CRSTER rural wind profile. The effective
7—neter data were input to the models, which subsequently used their respec-
tive, internal wind-profile algorithms to extrapolate the 7-meter wind
speeds to a stack-height value.* The randomized wind direction values
*The effect of this procedure on the performance of one of the models has
been further studied and the findings are summarized in Appendix F.
-------
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MSL(m) of Plant(°)
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North Madison
Hebron Church
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Canip Creek
Clifty Creek Plant Elevation
Elevation at Top of Stacks
Figure 1» Field monitoring network near the Clifty Creek Power Plant.
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calculated by the preprocessor were replaced by wind direction data measured
to the nearest degree on-site at the 60 meter level.
Temperature was measured at the 10-meter level at Liberty Ridge.
Pasquill-Gifford (P-G) stability classes were calculated by the preprocessor
on the basis ot insolation and wind speed using the Turner method. Input
for calculating stability were hourly wind speed and cloud cover data from
the Cincinnati NWS station. Hourly values of mixing height were determined
by the preprocessor, using the CRSTER interpolation scheme, based on the
morning radiosonde and surface temperature measurements at the Dayton NVvS
station, the hour of the day, and hourly stability class.
Source data for the Clifty Creek plant include hourly SO emission
rate, gas exit velocity and gas exit temperature. Values for the SO
emission rate were estimated for each hour by Teknekron based upon the per-
cent load for each boiler (hourly) and the average monthly sulfur content ot
the coal. Values of the hourly megawatt generation for each power plant
boiler were provided to Teknekron by AEP.
This data set was acquired by TRC and archived in a format to facilitate
model performance evaluation. The use of the data base in this study is
described in Section 4.
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STATISTICS APPROACH
The 1980 AMS Woods Hole workshop on model performance evaluation
recommended a comprehensive list of performance measures and statistics for
evaluating air quality models. In addition, the workshop recommended com-
parisons of the full set of observed-predicted data pairs, of the highest
observed and predicted concentration per event and of the highest N values
(unpaired in time or space), plus comparisons for subsets representing in-
dividual monitoring stations or selected meteorological conditions.
TRC and EPA reviewed the workshop report and formulated a statistical
approach based on workshop recommendations. An outline of the specific data
sets, performance measures, and statistics for this study was reviewed with
Dr. Douglas Fox, workshop chairman, prior to performing the statistical com-
parisons. The approach is described below, with particular attention to
items that represent departures from workshop recommendations or that were
not addressed by the workshop.
DATA SETS FOR COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS
The data sets listed in Table 1 represent the different types of com-
parisons recommended by the AMS workshop. In each instance, comparisons
were recommended for the basic 1-hour unit for model predictions and also
for 3- and 24-hour averaging times. To compare observed and predicted air
quality values on a common basis, it is necessary to account for background
concentration, i.e., contributions to measured air quality from sources
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TABLE 1. Summary ot Data Sets for Rural Model Evaluation with Clifty Creek Data Base*
A. Peak Concentration
Comparisons
CD
(A-l) Compare highest observed value
for each event with highest
prediction for same event (paired
in time, not location)
(A-2) Compare highest observed value
Cor the year at each monitoring
station with the highest
prediction for the year at the
same station (paired in location,
not time)
(A-3a) Compare maximum observed value
for the year with highest
predicted values representing
different time or space pairing
(fully unpaired; paired in
location; paired in time; paired
in space and time)
(A-3b) Compare maximum predicted value
for the year with highest
observed values for various
pairings, as in (A-3a)
(A-4a) Compare highest N (-25) observed
and highest N predicted values,
regardless of time or location
(A-4b) Compare highest N (-25) observed
and highest N predicted values,
regardless of time, Cor a given
monitoring location. (A total of
six data sets.)
(A-5) Same as (A-4a) , but for subsets
of events by meteorological
conditions (stability and wind
speed).
B. All-Concentrations
Comparisons
(B-l) Compare observed and predicts.) values
at a given station, paired in time (a
total of six data sets).
(B-2) Compare observed and predicted values
Cor a given time period, paired in
space (not appropriate for data set;;
with few monitoring sites).
(B-3) Compare observed and predicted values
at all stations, paired in time and
location (one data set).
(B-4) Same as (B-3), but Cor subsets of
events by meteorological conditions
(stability and wind speed).
* Nomenclature is taken Crom a letter of October 20, 1981 from William M. Cox (EPA) to Richard Londergan (TRC) summarizing the presentation
format for the performance statistics.
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whose impact is not modeled. For this study, the estimated background was
subtracted from measured concentrations betore comparing them witn model
predictions. (See p. 27 for more detail.) In Table 1, and in tne discus-
sions that follow, "ooserved value" denotes a measured concentration minus
background.
PEAK CONCENTRATIONS
For peak concentrations, comparisons are made to determine model per-
tormance ooth on an unpaired basis and for various pairings in time and
space. The first two items in Taole 1 represent a comparison ot the highest
ooserved and highest predicted concentrations, paired in time (A-l) and
paired in location (A-2). For the Clifty Creek data set, these two com-
parisons provide quite different measures of performance since the number ot
events is large (1 year represents 365 days or 8,760 hours) while there are
only six stations.
For many hours during a year, none of the six monitoring stations exper-
iences significant observed or predicted impact from the Clifty Creek
plant. These hours of effectively zero observed and zero predicted impact
are relatively uninteresting for the evaluation of air quality models for
regulatory purposes. Including those hours in statistical analyses adds
greatly to the computational burden and tends to dilute the model perform-
ance results trom hours with significant impact. Consequently, threshold
values were imposed to screen the data base for statistical analyses. If,
tor a given time period, both the observed concentration (adjusted for back-
ground) and the predicted concentration at a station were below the thresh-
old, that data pair was excluded from further analysis. A threshold value
ot 25 pg/m3 was used for 1- and 3-hour averages, and a value of
5 ug/m3 was used tor 24-nour averages.
9
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Item A-3a represents a comparison of the highest observed concentration
values, regardless of time or space, and predicted values representing dif-
ferent time and space pairing. The AMS workshop recommended such compari-
sons tor the "N" highest values. TRC and £PA elected to present only
single-value comparisons to illustrate the results, because or the diffi-
culty of interpreting statistics tor larger data sets. Item A-3o is direct-
ly analogous to A-3a, but starts from the highest predicted value.
Items A-4 and A-5 involve comparisons of the "N" highest observed and
predicted values, unpaired in time or space. The AMS workshop recommended
that such comparisons be based on the upper 2 to 5 percent of concentra-
tions, rather than on one or two extreme values. For rural point source
situations, significant impact (measurably different from zero) at a given
monitor location may be observed or predicted for as few as 5 percent of the
hours during a year. In this instance, 2 to 5 percent of all values would
represent approximately 50 to 100% of the non-zero concentrations. As an
alternative to the percentile approach, TRC recommended using a small number
(N=25) which would more appropriately represent the set of highest observed
and predicted values, while still providing a statistical basis for estab-
lishing confidence limits. On a percentage basis, 25 values represent
rougnly 7 percent of the 365 24-hour values in a year, about 1 percent of
the 3-hour values, and about 0.3 percent of the 1-hour values.
Air quality data often exhibit spatial and temporal correlation, partic-
ularly over time periods of a few hours. For 1- and 3-hour periods, the
highest 25 values were screened to eliminate cases with two or more high
values from the same period, or with two consecutive high values at the same
location. This screening is intended to reduce the effect of auto-
correlation and to avoid double-counting a single event. For 24-hour
10
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averaging periods, less auto correlation is expected, and this screening was
not included.
Comparisons of the highest 25 observed and predicted values were per-
formed for all stations combined (A-4a), for each station individually
(A-4b) and for subsets of events corresponding to selected meteorological
conditions (A-5). For 1- and 3-hour periods, data subsets were established
by dividing the total data set into groups according to the model input wind
speed or atmospheric stability class for each period. Three wind speed
groups were defined: low wind speed (less than 2.5 m/sec) ; moderate (2.5 to
5 m/sec); and high (greater than 5). Pour atmospheric stability groups were
defined: unstable (class A or B) ; slightly unstable (class C) ; neutral
(class D); and stable (class £, F, or G). For 3-hour periods, the median of
tne three hourly wind speed or stability class values was used to categorize
each period. Subsets were not defined for 24-hour periods since the same
dispersion conditions generally do not persist on that time scale.
COMPARISONS OF ALL CONCENTRATIONS
In addition to peak concentration analyses, the AMS workshop recommended
that comparisons be made based upon all observed and predicted concentration
values. Table 1 lists three items of this type. Item B-l is the comparison
of observed and predicted values at a given monitoring station (for all data
pairs above the threshold values). Item B-3 represents comparisons based on
the set of values from all six stations combined. Item B-4 represents sub-
sets of B-3 to reflect specific meteorological conditions. The same wind
speed and atmospheric stability criteria described tor item A-5 above were
used to define subsets for 1- and 3-hour averaging periods here.
11
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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MODEL PERFORMANCE
The AMS workshop report recommended two somewhat different lists of per-
formance measures for comparing model predictions with observed air quality,
one appropriate for data sets representing pairs of observed and predicted
values, the other appropriate for unpaired data sets. Paired data sets pro-
vide a means for assessing how well a model predicts on an event-by-event
basis, while unpaired sets do not. Table 2 summarizes the basic list of
performance measures, and the statistical methods recommended for establish-
ing confidence limits on each measure. At the head of each column (Paired
and Unpaired) are listed the data sets from Table 1 to which each list of
measures and statistical methods has been applied.
The data sets from item A-l (highest observed and predicted values for
each event) and from items B-lf B-3, and B-4 all represent observed and
predicted values paired in time. For these sets, statistical analyses based
on the residuals (i.e., the differences between each pair of observed and
predicted values) are appropriate for measuring model performance. If the
time pairing for these data sets is ignored, however, it is also possible to
assess model performance (in aggregate) by comparing the features of the
composite set of all observed values to those of the predicted values.
Consequently, both paired and unpaired comparisons were recommended by the
workshop for these data sets. Data sets representing comparisons of the
highest 25 values, regardless of time or space, provide no basis for paired
analysis. For these sets (A-4, A-5), only unpaired comparisons were per-
formed. Item A-2, comparison of the single highest observed and predicted
values from each of the six stations, represents a very small data set for
which any statistical analysis is of marginal value. Only the paired com-
parison performance measures were computed for this case. No statistics
were computed for the single-value comparisons in item A-3.
12
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TABLE 2. Statistical Estimators and
Basis for Confidence Limits on Performance Measures
Basis for Confidence Interval
Performance
Measure
Estimator
Paired Comparison
(Sets A-l, A-2,
B-l, B-3, B-4)
Unpaired Comparison
(Sets A-l, A-4, A-5,
B-l, B-3, B-4)
Bias
Average One sample "t," with
adjustment for serial
correlation
Median Wilcoxon matched pair
Two sample "t1
Mann-Whitney
Noise/Scatter Variance
Gross
variability
Average
absolute
residual
Chi-squared test
oh variance of
residuals
None
F test on variance
ratio
Not applicable
None
Not applicable
Correlation
Pearson
correlation
coefficient
Fisher "z"
Not applicable
Frequency
distribution
comparison
Maximum
difference
between
two
cumulative
distribution
functions
Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S)
test on f(d) vs. a
normal distribution
K-S test on f(obs.)
vs. f(pred.)
13
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For paired comparisons, as noted above, the performance measures are
based on an analysis of. residuals. Model bias is indicated by the average
and/or the median residual, with a value of zero representing no bias. The
characteristic magnitude of the residuals is an indicator of the scatter
between observed and predicted values on an event-by-event basis. Three
measures of noise or scatter were computed:
V - 2
• Variance 1 2» (d. - d)
N-l i x
f\
9 Gross variability 1 £ d
. N i
• Average absolute residual 1 2» 'd.i
~~F~ i i
where d. is the residual (observed minus predicted) for data pair i, d is
the average residual, and N is the number of data pairs. The correlation of
paired observed and predicted values is measured by the Pearson correlation
coefficient. To interpret these performance measures, it is useful to know
the properties of the frequency distribution of residual values. The final
performance measure is therefore a comparison between the actual distribu-
tion of residuals and a normal distribution.
For unpaired comparisons, the list of performance measures is somewhat
shorter. Model bias is indicated by the difference between the average (or
median) observed value and the average (median) predicted value. A ratio of
the variances of the observed and predicted values is provided to indicate
whether the distribution of values in the two data sets is comparable. Sim-
ilarly, the frequency distribution of observed values is compared with that
for predicted values.
14
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Standard statistical methods have been used to estimate confidence lim-
its for each of the performance measures. Discussion of the statistical
procedures may be found in most statistics textbooks. For parametric pro-
cedures, the reader is referred to Snedecor and Cochran (1967), while for
nonparametric procedures Hollander and Wolfe (1973) provide an appro-
priate description.
For paired comparisons, the confidence interval on the average residual
can be estimated using the one-sample t test. This parametric test incor-
porates the assumption that the residuals follow a normal distribution, but
for large N, departures from normality are not critical when the number of
events is large. Serial correlation can affect results significantly, how-
ever, since the number of "independent events" will be overestimated and the
calculated variance may understate the magnitude of the actual random error
component. The AMS workshop recommended the adjustment of confidence limits
for serial correlation. A method described by Hirtzel and Quon (1981)
has been used to adjust the confidence interval from the one-sample t test.
The interval given by the standard one-sample t test is multiplied by the
1/2
factor [ (l+r)/(l-r) ] , where r is the lag-one autocorrelation
coefficient of the residuals.
An analogous nonparametric indicator of model bias is the median resid-
ual. The statistical method for estimating a confidence interval on the
median residual is provided by the Wilcoxon matched-pairs test. No
straightforward method of adjusting the confidence intervals from the
Wilcoxon test for serial correlation has been identified.
A confidence interval for the variance of the residuals is calculated
using a chi-squared test. No adjustment was made for serial correlation.
No standard method is available for estimating confidence intervals for the
15
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gross variability or average absolute deviation measures. For the Pearson
correlation coefficient, the Fisher z test provides a method of estimating
the confidence interval.
Comparison of two cumulative distribution functions is accomplished
using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. For this test, the two distribu-
tion functions are compared across the full range of concentration (or re-
sidual) values, and the maximum frequency difference between the two func-
tions is identified. For the paired comparisons, the residual frequency
distribution is tested for normality.
For unpaired comparisons, two bias measures are computed. The average
of the observed values is compared with the average of the predicted
values. The confidence interval on the difference of the averages is esti-
mated with a two-sample t test. The difference of the medians is also com-
puted, and the confidence interval is estimated using the Mann-Whitney non-
parametric test.
The variance of observed values is compared with the variance of pre-
dicted values for unpaired data sets. The performance measure is the ratio
of the variances; the F test provides confidence limits on the ratio. The
frequency distribution comparison for unpaired data sets provides a measure
of the difference between the observed and predicted distribution func-
tions. The K-S test is again used to assess the statistical significance of
the maximum frequency difference.
16
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SECTION 4
DESCRIPTION OF ANALYSIS SYSTEM AND MODELS
The system for evaluating air quality models, developed by TRC for EPA/
OAQPS, consists of three basic modules as shown conceptually in Figure 2.
These modules perform the functions of:
1) Data base archiving
2) Air quality model calculations
3) Statistical evaluation
Data .obtained from Teknekron were processed and stored on archive files
as part of the archive module. In the model module, these archive files are
used by a model preprocessor to create model input files and a work file of
measured air quality concentrations. Next, the model is run to obtain pre-
dicted concentrations, which are merged with the measured data to create the
work file. The evaluation module also contains a preprocessor step in which
observed concentrations (measured minus background) and predicted concentra-
tions are screened and sorted into appropriate statistical program input
files. The second step of the evaluation module is to employ the statistics
package to produce objective statistics for analysis and model evaluation.
A description of the steps involved in manipulating and passing data through
the three modules of the model evaluation system is presented in this sec-
tion. In addition, the technical features of each model are described, and
the specific problems encountered in each phase of the analysis system are
noted.
17
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ARCHIVE MODULE
ARCHIVE
DATA BASE
FILES
MODEL MODULE
ARCHIVE
DATA BASE
FILES
PREPROCESSOR
MODEL INPUT /
MEASURED!
FILES
i
MODEL
INPUT
FILES
I
EVALUATION
MODEL
PRINTOUT
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MEASURED AND
PREDICTED
FILE
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MEASURED AND
PREDICTED
FILE
STATISTICS
PREPROCESSOR
SCREENED AND
SORTED
STATISTICAL
INPUT FILES
SCREENED AND
SORTED
STATISTICAL
INPUT FILES
STATISTICS
PACKAGE
ANALYSIS
OUTPUT
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Figure 2. Flow of Data Through the System for Evaluating
Air Quality Models
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DESCRIPTION OF CLIFTY CREEK DATA ARCHIVE
The 2 years of data (1975 and 1976) from the Clifty Creek power plant
data base were obtained on magnetic tape and installed on the archive
files. These files are maintained on the EPA UNIVAC 1100 computer. The
data base (described in Section 2) was assembled by Teknekron from air qual-
ity and meteorological data measured by ERT, and standard National Weather
Service data and plant operating data supplied by AEP.
Hourly meteorological data, compiled by Teknekron in the standard format
4
from the Meteorological Preprocessor Program (CRSTER preprocessor), was
supplied to TRC for input to the models. Since these data were in a stan-
dard model input format, they were simply transferred to disc files for
later use by the evaluation module.
\
Source data for the Clifty Creek plant included the hourly SO. emis-
sion rate, gas exit velocity and gas exit temperature. Hourly values for
the SO emission rate and percent load for each boiler were included in
the data set assembled by Teknekron. Stack gas exit velocities were cal-
culated by TRC using a relationship developed by Teknekron. Above
50 percent load, the velocity is proportional to plant load. When the load
factor was less than 0.5, the velocity calculated for 50 percent load was
2
selected. The stack gas temperature (445.37K) was found by Teknekron not
to vary significantly with load. Therefore a constant value was used.
Hourly SO_ concentrations measured at the six stations in the Clifty
Creek network (Figure 1) complete the data set used for this model evalua-
tion study.
The Clifty Creek data set described above was processed and written to
three archive files. The header file contains information generally des-
cribing the data base, while the index file contains locations of each para-
meter and the data file contains the actual parameter values. A fourth11
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archive file, the generalized parameter identifier file, provides a fixed
set of identification codes and descriptions for each data base parameter.
8
The archive system is explained and documented in the report "Description
of Archive Structure to Accommodate Data Bases Appropriate for Model Evalua-
tions," prepared for EPA by TRC in an earlier work assignment.
Data Base Errors
Two errors were discovered in the Clifty Creek data base. The first
error was a spuriously high ambient temperature value which caused an abnor-
mal termination in the plume rise algorithm of the MPTER model. This spur-
ious temperature value was replaced by assuming persistence from the pre-
vious hour. The second error identified in the data base was also for a
meteorological variable. A wind speed value of zero caused the MULTIMAX
model to terminate abnormally. The wind speed value for that hour was set
to the value measured in the previous hour. The Clifty Creek data base had
been screened and used by Teknekron in a previous model evaluation study.
Teknekron evidently did not encounter problems from these erroneous values.
DESCRIPTION OF MODELS AND MODEL RUNS
Ten rural models were considered for evaluation: MPTER, CRSTER, PLUMES,
MPSDM, COMPTER, SCSTER, 3141, 4141, TEM-8A, and MULTIMAX. Technical evalua-
tion by EPA resulted in the conclusion that MPTER, CRSTER, and PLUMES (with
the particular options selected) would predict equivalent concentration
values when applied to the Clifty Creek plant. Therefore, evaluation
statistics were prepared for eight models including MPTER. In this section,
the basic technical features which distinguish the seven remaining models
from MPTER are identified. Also described are the data preprocessors and
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modifications to model computer codes required to obtain model predictions
appropriate for comparison with observed concentrations.
Model user manuals provided by EPA were reviewed to obtain a through
understanding of the technical features, input requirements, options avail-
able to the user and the flow of logic in the computer code. The model
authors were contacted by telephone whenever model documentation required
clarification, and to define the set of input options preferred by the
author in each case for applying the model to the Clifty Creek data base.
The models were run in the technical modes recommended by the model builders.
Model Features
CRSTER is the EPA reference model for rural, noncoraplex sites; however,
a modified EPA version of MPTER has been used here as a CRSTER-equivalent
*
substitute. The key technical features of the MPTER/CRSTER model as run
for this study, plus the principal differences between this and the other
models (as run), are summarized in Table 3.
Terrain Treatment—
The influence of elevated terrain on plume dispersion is generally simu-
lated in the rural models by lowering the effective height of the elevated
pollutant plume above ground in proportion to the height of the terrain
*The UNAMAP 4 version of MPTER was not used since it differs slightly from
CRSTER in the treatment of inversion penetration. The CRSTER-equivalent
version of MPTER used in this study checks for plume penetration of the
mixing height after adjusting the plume height for terrain; while the UNAMAP
4 version of MPTER makes this check immediately above the source only.
Also, MPTER allows arbitrary receptor locations to be specified exactly,
unlike CRSTER which uses a polar receptor grid.
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Table 3. Principal Technical Features of the MPTER/CRSTER Model and
Technical Differences Between It and Other Models As Run for This Study**
MPTER/CRSTER (EPA)
Full terrain subtraction
Briggs final plume rise
Uses stability classes A, B, C, D, E, F
Stability class restriction (G replaced witn F)
Pasquill-Gitford oy ana az
Mixing height (L) used for all stability classes
Uniform mixing beyond where oz exceeds 1.6L
Full plume penetration. Vvhen H >L, then ground-level concentration
(X) - 0
Wind profile power-law coefficients of 0.1, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30 and
0.30 for stability classes A-F.
MPSDM (ERT)
ASME (1979).dispersion coefficients
Terrain treatment* (1/2 height, unstable and neutral; full terrain sub
traction, stable)
Transitional plume rise
5 stability classes (F used for all stable)
Stack-tip downwash
Buoyancy enhanced dispersion (av and az)
Mixing height not used for stable conditions
Uniform mixing not assumed
Briggs Partial plume penetration
Wind profile power law coefficients (.09, .11, .12, .14, .20)
o COMPTER (Alabama Air Polution Control Commission)
Buoyancy enhanced dispersion (a z)
* While full terrain subtraction was intended for stable conditions, the
model actually utilizes 1/2 terrain height treatment for all stability
classes because of an internal error in the code.
** It shoula be noted that some of the models have other options that could
have been exercised to either increase, decrease, or even eliminate
differences with MPTER/CRSTER. For each model offering one or more
options, the selection of the most appropriate option(s) for the model's
evaluation was based on guidance from the user's manual and discussion
with the model developer.
(continued)
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Table 3. (Continued)
faCSTER (Southern Company Services)
Hoftnagle terrain treatment (terrain subtraction factor k = .2, .3, .4,
.5, .6, .6 for stabilities 1-6)
Mixing height used for stable conditions
Test for penetration of mixing height made before terrain correction
3141 (Enviroplan)
Terrain treatment (1/2 terrain height subtraction from plume centerline)
Buoyancy enhanced dispersion (cry and az)
Horizontal dispersion for 60-minute averages (ay = 1.82 ayp)
Stability class restriction (G replaced with F)
o 4141 (Enviroplan)
Same as 3141 except terrain treatment is 3/4 terrain height subtraction
for stability class E, F. or G
o TEM-8A (Texas Air Control Board)
Flat terrain assumed
Horizontal dispersion for 60-minute averages (ay = C^
where C = 3.35, 2.70, 2.14, 1.71, 1.37, 1.37 for stabilities 1-6)
Transitional plume rise
Mixing height not used tor stable conditions
Uniform mixing at 2 times the distance beyond where az = 0.47L
Full plume penetration when H >2L; then x=0.
O MULTIMAX (Shell Oil)
Transitional plume rise
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feature. This effective plume height is then used in the dispersion calcu-
lation. Of the models evaluated, only TEM-8A does not adjust the plume
height foe terrain. The MPTER/CRSTER model uses full subtraction of the
terrain elevation from the plume height. This "full terrain'1 treatment is
also employed by COMPTER and MULTIMAX. For the remaining models, the ef-
fective height is calculated by subtracting some traction of the full ter-
rain height. The factors shown in Table 3 for SCSTER represent the traction
of terrain height subtracted from plume height for each stability class.
Models 3141, 4141 and MPSDM use 1/2 terrain height subtraction for nonstable
conditions. For stable conditions, 3141 continues to use 1/2 terrain height
subtraction, 4141 uses 3/4 terrain subtraction, and MPSDM uses full terrain
subtraction.
Plume Rise—
All of the models calculate an effective stack height for emissions
based on the Briggs buoyant plume rise formulations. The transitional plume
rise concept employed by MULTIMAX, TEM-8A and MPSDM uses the distance-
dependent plume rise formulations. The other models use final plume rise
tor calculating effective stack height at all distances from the source.
Dispersion Coefficients—
The Pasquill-Gifford dispersion coefficients are used by each model
except MPSDM. In MPSDM, the ASME dispersion coefficients are used in the
Gaussian equation.
Since the Pasquill-Gifford and ASME dispersion coefficients are general-
ly representative of short period releases, they may not account for the
dispersive effect resulting from atmospheric motions on the time scale of
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several minutes to 1 hour. The moaels 3141 and 4141 attempt to account for
this effect by enhancing the horizontal dispersion coefficients by a factor
(1.82) proposed oy Gittora. The model TEM-8A enhances the horizontal dis-
persion coetticients as a function of stability with the factors provided in
Table 3. None of the other models (as run) adjusts for this effect.
Several models account for enhanced dispersion resulting when ambient
air is entrained in a buoyant plume. COMPTER, 3141, 4141 and MPSDM use sim-
ilar formulations to enhance a by an amount proportional to (AH)2.
z
The same formulations are used to enhance a as well in 3141, 4141 and
MPSDM. COMPTER does not enhance a . While MPTER/CRSTER allows the
option of enhanced dispersion, it was not used in this evaluation.
Stability Classification—
The original Pasquill-Gifford dispersion curves only delineated six
stability categories (A-F). However, a seventh stability category (G) is
frequently used to characterize extremely stable atmospheric conditions.
Three of the models evaluated here (COMPTER, TEM-8A, and MULTIMAX) use the
P-G coefficients for stability categories A-F in the Gaussian equation while
setting ground-level concentrations to zero for stability class G. Models
MPTER, SCSTER, 3141 and 4141 use P-G coefficients for stability class F in
the Gaussian equation whenever class G occurs. The ASME dispersion
coefficients are used by MPSDM. The version of MPSDM employed for this
study provides for five stability classes, including only one stable
category. Hours classified as E, F or G stabilities are simulated with the
ASME dispersion coefficients recommended for stability class F.
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Mixinq Height—
Most of the models, including MPTER, assume that the plume is fully
reflected by a stable lid at the mixing height. However, when the effective
plume height exceeds the mixing height, these moaels assume full plume pene-
tration of the elevated stable layer, resulting in zero ground-level concen-
trations. TEM-8A and MPSDM use slightly different assumptions regarding the
effects of stable lids on plume behavior. TEM-8A simply assumes that a
plume is fully reflected by a stable layer aloft unless the effective plume
height is at least double the mixing height. For plumes above twice the
mixing height TEM-8A assumes zero ground level concentrations. MPSDM uses
the partial plume penetration scheme developed by Briggs. In this scheme
the fraction of a plume exceeding the mixing lid is calculated. The plume
material within this fraction of the plume (with a limiting value of 0.5) is
removed from the source term in the Gaussian equation.
Wind Profile—
All the models use a power law formulation to adjust wind speed from
measurement height to stack height. The wind speed power law exponents used
by MPTER/CRSTER are used by all of the other models except MPSDM. The ex-
ponents used by MPSDM are smaller than those for MPTER and result in a some-
what lower wind speed at the height of the Clifty Creek stacks.
Preprocessors
All the models required some modifications to link the archived input to
the models, and to format model output for subsequent use by the statistics
package. To keep model modifications to a minimum, the functional link
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between archived input ana each model is a model-specific preprocessor.
Each preprocessor performs two basic functions:
1) Creates the input files expected by the model.
2; Creates an initialized, model-specific work file.
The input files expected by the model generally include data describing
the model options selected for this application; characteristics of the
sources, receptors and meteorology to be modeled; and actual data values
used in the mathematical algorithms. The preprocessor also passes data from
the archive into a model-specific work file for use during the statistical
evaluation. The work file contains hourly values of the following var-
iables: date, time, wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability, mix-
ing height, background concentration, measured concentration and predicted
concentration. The predicted concentration is written to the work file by
the model, which has been modified for this purpose. The other variables,
except background concentration, come directly from the data base archive
files.
To compare model-predicted concentrations with monitored values, the
background concentration must first be taken into account. In this analy-
sis, the background S0_ concentration has been subtracted from the moni-
tored concentration on an hour-by-hour basis. Hourly background concentra-
tions were estimated using the approach recommended by EPA in the Guideline
9
on Air Quality Models. In this method, a background concentration for
each hour is calculated as the average of values at monitor locations out-
side the 90 sector downwind from the local source (in this case, the
Clifty Creek power plant). In cases when the background estimate exceeds
the measured concentration at a station, the observed value is set to zero
-»
(never to a value less than zero).
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Other Modifications
Each model, except MPSDM and COMPTER, required additional assumptions or
modifications to produce the output necessary for the statistical model
evaluations. These are noted below by model:
• MPTER
Logic to input hourly values of stack exit velocity.
Elimination of internal adjustment of exit velocity by the ratio of
the hourly emission rate to the maximum emission rate.
TEM-8A
Logic to input hourly (rather than average) emission rate and stack
exit velocities.
Logic for discrete (arbitrary) receptor locations. Elimination of
model-generated rectangular array of receptors.
Logic for output of hourly predicted concentrations. (The model
otherwise divides hourly values by 24 prior to calculating 24-hour
averages.)
3141/4141
Logic to input hourly emission rate and hourly stack exit velocity
(rather than average values).
These models incorporate a polar coordinate receptor grid with a
10-degree azimuthal spacing between receptors. The receptor closest
(in direction) to each monitoring station was used to represent that
station. (The radial distance of each ring of receptors from the
source can be specified by the model user. The correct radial dis-
tance for each monitoring station was used.)
SCSTER
Logic to input hourly (rather than average) emission rate and stack
exit velocity.
MOLTIMAX
Logic to input hourly (rather than average) emission rate and stack
exit velocities.
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Reduction of source and receptor array sizes and, hence, reduction of
computer core requirements.
"Dummy-up" of system software that does not work on EPA UNIVAC com-
puter.
Model code is FORTRAN V, which requires FIELDDATA input and generates
FIELDDATA output. It was therefore necessary to convert input files
from ASCII to FIELDDATA, and output from FIELDDATA to ASCII.
Verification
Several measures were taken to verify that modifications made to the
models were producing intended results. Before any changes were made to
model computer codes, a cross-reference map was used to assure that pre-
viously defined variables and common-block arrays were not being overwritten
by new variables. The cross-reference map was also used to trace each modi-
fied variable through the computer code, to ensure that a program change did
not have any unintended consequences. Intermediate and final printed model
results were scrutinized for illogical or spurious variable values. As a
final step, data values written to the work file were compared with model
printed output to ensure that the output modifications were functioning
properly. Unfortunately, it was not practical to use before-and-after test
runs to verify model performance.
Model Runs
The final step in generating predicted concentration values was to run
the models and write the predicted concentrations to the appropriate records
of the work file (previously initialized by model preprocessor). Two work
files were created, one for each year of data.
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In the course of the model evaluations some initially suspect results
led to the discovery of incorrect model codes in MPSDM. In these cases, the
problems and possible corrections were discussed with the model developer.
Two modifications were subsequently made to the MPSDM model. One was in the
units of expected input ambient temperature in the CONVRT (preprocessor)
program. The second modification, also in CONVRT, was to read the wind
direction data from the proper section of the CRSTER preprocessor output.
Another problem identified in the MPSDM code was that user-supplied terrain
adjustment factors were overwritten by a fixed value of 0.5. This last
problem could not be addressed within the time frame of this model
evaluation effort^
DESCRIPTION OF STATISTICAL EVALUATION PROCEDURES
The comparison of model predictions with observed air quality was accom-
plished in the series of steps that were graphically depicted in Figure 2.
The statistical approach has been described in Section 3, and in this sec-
tion, the implementation of the statistical analyses is described. The sta-
tistical evaluation module (see Figure 2) consists of two components: a
preprocessor to sort the working file into data sets for statistical analy-
sis; and a statistical package to compute values and confidence intervals
for the performance measures.
The "work file" of observed and predicted hourly concentrations, plus
associated hourly meteorological parameters, is sorted by the statistics
preprocessor into a number of data sets. The preprocessor computes average
values for 3- and 24-hour periods, screens each pair of measured and pre-
dicted concentrations according to threshold values, and then constructs the
individual files required to perform each type of comparison listed in
Table 1.
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The statistical package then calculates the specific performance
measures listed in Table 2. The statistical computations were performed on
the EPA Univac 1110 computer, using the Statistical Package for the Social
Sciences (SPSS). ' TRC constructed two basic SPSS runstreams, one to
implement the paired comparisons, the other for unpaired comparisons, and
applied each as appropriate to the various data sets.
The SPSS routines impose numerous limitations upon the analysis system.
It is virtually impossible to adapt the SPSS programs and output for a
specific application, and many calculations therefore had to be performed
external to the automated run-streams. The adjustment of t-test results for
the effects of serial correlation, for example, was performed in a second
computational step at TRC, as were all of the confidence interval calcula-
tions. The SPSS output from the Wilcoxon matched-pairs test could not be
used in the form provided by SPSS, and this comparison has therefore been
dropped from the result tables. (The Wilcoxon results are generally redund-
ant with the t test, and were therefore judged to be dispensable in light of
the considerable effort required to recompute them separately.) Similarly,
for the unpaired comparisons, SPSS output for the Mann-Whitney test posed
several difficulties. Mann-Whitney test results have been presented only
for the 25 highest value data sets (A-4, A-5), since the calculations were
performed external to SPSS and became extremely cumbersome when the number
of events was large.
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SECTION 5
MODEL PERFORMANCE RESULTS
The 1980 AMS Woods Hole workshop on model performance evaluation recom-
mended a comprehensive set of performance measures and statistics for com-
paring model predictions with observed air quality. in the preceding sec-
tions of this report, the statistical approach and the analysis system have
been described. The model performance results which have been obtained are
organized into a series of appendix tables. This section explains the or-
ganization of those appendices and also presents a summary of selected
results.
Comparisons between observed and predicted statistical measures were
produced for each of the eight models, for three averaging times (1, 3, and
24 hours) and for each of two years of air quality data from the Clifty
Creek monitoring network. The results are presented in a series of four
appendices. Appendix A presents results based on comparison of the 25 high-
est observed and 25 highest predicted concentration values (A-4, A-5). Ap-
pendix B presents results for all data pairs (B-l, B-2, and B-4) and for the
highest concentration per event (A-l). Appendix C presents the results for
the highest observed and predicted concentration value at each station for
the entire year (A-2). Appendix D presents results for maximum concentra-
tion values with various time and space pairing constraints (A-3). An
explanation of the data sets, performance measures and statistics is found
at the beginning of each appendix. Appendix E provides tables of hour-by-
hour model input and observed SO air quality for each of 10 selected days
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when high SO concentrations were measured. Case study analyses can be
pursued by interested readers.
In the appendix tables, results for different models are generally pre-
sented in separate tables. To facilitate comparisons among the models, a
series of summary tables has also been prepared. These tables contain sta-
tistics on model bias from each of the sets of appendix tables. The summary
tables are presented at the end of this section.
Tables 4 and 5 correspond to the results presented in Appendix A.
Tables 4 and 5 compare the average of the 25 highest observed concentration
values with the average of the 25 highest values predicted by each model.
The numbers in parentheses following the difference of the averages repre-
sent a 95 percent confidence interval. Results are given for all locations
and all events, station-by-station, and for events grouped by meteorological
conditions (wind speed and atmospheric stability class.) Each table con-
sists of three parts, representing the three averaging times. Table 4 pre-
sents results for 1975; Table 5 presents results for 1976.
Tables 6 and 7 correspond to the results presented in Appendix B. The
average difference between paired observed and predicted concentration
values is listed for each model. Results are given for all locations and
all events, for the highest concentration per event, for each monitoring
station, and for events grouped by meteorological conditions. Tables 6 and
7 again contain three parts, with results for different averaging times.
Tables 8 and 9 correspond to results presented in Appendix C and Appen-
dix D. Comparisons are based on the highest concentration values observed
and predicted for an entire year. The highest single values are compared,
regardless of location, and the averages of the highest values at all
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stations are compared. Tables 8 and 9 consist of three parts for the dif-
ferent averaging times.
Model performance results for the 25 highest values are summarized in
Tables 4 and 5. The results for 1975 for 1-hour averages are presented in
Table 4(a). For all stations and all events combined, the difference
between the average of the 25 highest observed and predicted values is nega-
tive, indicating overprediction, for six of the eight models. Results range
from a difference of -424 yg/m3 , for MPSDM, to a difference of +234
ug/m3 for 4141, compared with an average observed concentration of 791
yg/m3. In parentheses following the difference of averages, the 95 per-
cent confidence interval is indicated.
Results by station in Table 4(a) indicate considerable variation in pre-
diction bias from station to station for most of the models. At station 6,
all of the models give average predicted values lower than the average ob-
served value. Results for different meteorological conditions show clear
trends for all of the models. The difference of averages increases (shifts
toward underprediction) as wind speed increases. Similarly, the difference
of averages tends to increase as the stability group changes from unstable
(class A and B) to stable (class E and F) conditions. For class A and B,
all of the differences are negative (indicating overprediction); for class £
and F, the difference is positive (indicating underprediction) for seven of
the eight models.
Selected results for 1975 for 3-hour and 24-hour averages are summarized
in Tables 4(b} and 4(c). The 3-hour average results over all stations and
events indicate less overprediction than 1-hour results; six models overpre-
dicted for the highest 25 1-hour values, but only three models overpredicted
for the highest 25 3-hour values. This trend is continued for 24-hour
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averages, with only one model (COMPTER) overpredicting. Station-by-station
results are mixed, but also exhibit the same trend (toward model underpre-
diction) as the averaging period increases. The variations in model per-
formance for different meteorological conditions for the 25 highest 3-hour
average values (Table 4b) show dependence on wind speed and'stability simi-
lar to that noted for the 1-hour average results.
Table 5 (a, b, c) presents a summary of results obtained for the 25
highest values for the year 1976. Results are generally consistent with
those noted above for 1975, although for specific models, stations, and
meteorological conditions some distinct differences are also evident. A
majority of the models again overpredicted the average of the 25 highest
1-hour values, and again underpredicted for the 3- and 24-hour values.
Tables 6 and 7 present selected results obtained for comparisons of ob-
served and predicted values for all events, not just the highest 25 values.
The average observed value, computed for all data pairs above the threshold
value, is listed, along with the average difference between observed and
predicted values for each model. A consistent tendency toward underpre-
diction (positive average differences) is evident in the results for all
three averaging periods. For 1- and 3-hour averages, these results indicate
that any overprediction at high concentration values (see Tables 4 and 5) is
offset by underprediction at lower concentrations. Trends in the results
for different meteorological subsets are less pronounced for all concentra-
tion values than for the 25 highest, but overprediction is again indicated
for class A and B stability, despite the overall pattern of underpredic-
tion. Relatively few differences are evident when results for different
averaging periods or years are compared.
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Comparisons based on maximum observed and predicted concentration values
for an entire year are presented in Tables 8 and 9. The single highest pre-
dicted value over all stations, and the average of the maximum predicted
values at each station, are compared with the corresponding observed
values. The instability of single-value comparisons is evident when results
for different averaging periods or years are compared. For 1975, the high-
est 1-hour observed value (Table 8a) was larger than the highest predicted
value for six of the eight models. By contrast, for 1976 the highest value
was overpredicted by six models. Results are somewhat more consistent for
the average of the maximum values at the six monitoring stations, but varia-
tions are still evident. The overall tendency toward model underprediction
for 24-hour averaging periods (noted above for the 25 highest values) is
•
also evident in Tables 8c and 9c.
This discussion of selected results illustrates the format in which the
summary tables of model performance statistics are presented and highlights
some of the basic patterns and trends evident in the results. The complete
set of performance statistics for the measures recommended by the AMS work-
shop is presented in Appendices A to D. A few particular comments are
warranted, however, to point out overall patterns and trends for certain
performance measures which are not included in the summary tables.
One measure of model performance recommended for comparing observed and
predicted values on an unpaired basis is the comparison of cumulative
frequency distributions. The tables in Appendix A and Appendix B present
frequency distribution comparison results for the 25 highest values and for
all concentration values, respectively. In Appendix A, with frequency dis-
tributions based on a small number of values (N * 25), the results indicate
36
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that differences between the observed and predicted distributions are often
not significant at a 95% confidence level. (Unless the observed and
predicted frequency distributions differ by more than 0.385, the result is
not significant at a 95 percent confidence level.)
In Appendix B, frequency distributions based on all concentration
values, or on the highest values for all events, are compared. With the
larger sample size, a much smaller difference between the frequency distri-
butions is significant at 95% confidence. For 1-hour and 3-hour averaging
periods, results indicate significant differences between the observed and
predicted frequency distributions in virtually every instance. Figure 3
illustrates the observed and predicted cumulative frequency distributions
for one selected case. In this figure, the distribution of hourly values
predicted by MPTER is compared to the distribution of observed values for
all Clifty Creek monitoring stations for 1975. While the two distribution
functions appear comparable at higher concentration values (above 200
yg/m3), they diverge at lower values. Since the number of events with
low observed and predicted values is much greater than the number with high
values, the frequency distribution comparison results are generally domin-
ated by the low values. (It should be noted that Figure 3 illustrates
frequency distributions constructed without any screening for threshold
values. Results in Appendix B represent comparison after screening for
threshold).
Results for the correlation coefficient measure are also worth noting.
In Appendix B, the correlation coefficient serves as one indicator of model
performance to compare the variation of observed and predicted values event
by event. The correlation coefficients show a clear dependence on averaging
.»
period, as results for the highest values by event illustrate. For each
37
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10
00
cn
=1
.
a:
U)
o
o
o
10.
10J
1975 CLIFTY CREEK
1-HOUR AVERAGE S02 CONCENTRATIONS
RECEPTOR 1
FREQ PTS = 8079
Observed / ,
(background / I
subtracted) ' '
-MPTER-Predicted
/
•/
25 pg/m Threshold Concentration
50.0060.0070.0080.00 90.00 95.00 98.0099.0099.5099.8099.9099.9799.99
CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY
Figure 3. Cumulative frequency distributions of observed and MPTER-predicted concentrations
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model, the correlation coefficient increases as the averaging period
increases. For 1-hour averages, values for different years and models range
between 0.11 and 0.20; for 3-hour averages, values range between 0.16 and
0.30; while 24-hour average values are between 0.23 and 0.55. For other
data sets in Appendix B, similar trends are evident.
This discussion of selected performance measures is intended to high-
light a few features of the overall model perfomance results, and to illus-
trate the information presented in the tables. The comments are not intend-
ed to place particular importance on any specific performance measures, but
only to introduce the material.
39
-------
3. By meteorological
condition (A - 5)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 »/sec
>5 m/aec
TABLE 4a-l. DIFFERENCE OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AVERAGES OF THE
25 HIGHEST SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME! 1 HOUR
Data Sets
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
2. By station/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
Average _
Observed Difference of Averages (C0
Value C0
(pq/rf ) HPTER MPSDM
790.8 -206.9 (-403.1, -170.7) -423.6 (-643.5,
508.9 -86.1 (-146.5, -25.7) -7.1 ( -75.7,
535.0 -310.0 (-397.5, -222.5) -200.2 (-309.7,
580.0 -355.0 (-480.2, -229.8) '-411.0 (-597.5,
550.0 -117.8 (-193.4, -42.2) -38.0 (-128.6,
225.9 -89.4 (-251.5, 72.7) -337.7 (-566.1,
512.6 60.8 ( -56.2, 177.8) 44.0 ( -67.9,
- Cp) For Bach Model (pg/V )
-203.7)
61.5)
-90.7)
-224.5)
52.6)
-109.3)
155.9)
COHFTEH
-339.6 (-454.8, -224.4)
-172.1 (-228.3, -115.9)
-333.6 (-418.0, -249.2)
-428.8 (-554.8, -302.8)
-141.8 (-214.8, -68.8)
-266.3 (-414.2, -118.4)
24.6 ( -90.7, 139.9)
SCSTER
-69.3 (-185.8, 47.2)
26.8 ( -38.4, 92.0)
-141.8 (-214.2, -69.4)
-140.1 (-271.1, -9.1)
22.7 ( -40.5, 85.9)
23.0 (-101.0, 147.0)
62.2 ( -54.8, 179.2)
653.5 -210.2 (-303.4, -117.0)
652.0 -369.3 (-492.2, -246.4)
489.9 -68.0 (-130.9, -5.1)
-517.1 (-737.5, -296.7)
-118.0 (-232.6, -3.4)
167.0 ( 111.8, 222.2)
-268.5 (-359.4, -177.6)
-420.6 (-543.3, -297.9)
-129.S (-189.2, -69.8)
-95.8 (-190.7, -0.9)
-111.9 (-230.1, 6.3)
259.1 < 200.6, 317.6)
b. Stability Group
Class A t B 481.3
Class C 678.9
Class D 586.6
Class B & F 398.0
-481.7 (-574.7, -388.7)
-247.9 {-367.0, -128.8)
28.1 ( -19.0, 75.2)
56.2 ( -49.2, 161.6)
-552.4 (-767.9, -336.9)
-335.8 (-500.0, -171.6)
243.9 ( 209.1, 278.7)
361.8 ( 257.8, 465.8)
-522.1 (-616.0, -428.2)
-311.0 (-428.8, -193.2)
-32.8 ( -75.4, 9.8)
-207.9 (-315.9, -99.9)
-358.0 (-443.9, -272.1)
20.4 ( -85.8, 126.6)
350.5 ( 312.0, 389.0)
325.7 ( 223.2, 428.2)
-------
TABLE 4a-2. DIFFERENCE OF OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED AVERAGES OF THE
25 HIGHEST SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME! 1 HOUR
Average
Observed
Value C0
Data Sets (vi/at )
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a) 790. 8
2. By statioQ/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1 SOS. 9
Station 2 535.0
Station 3 580. 0
Station 4 550.0
Station 5 225.9
Station 6 512.6
3. By Meteorological
condition (A - 5)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 B/sec 653.5
2.5 to 5 Hi/sec 652.0
>5 »/sec 489.9
b. Stability Group
Class A & B 481.3
Class C 678.9
Class D 586.6
Class E t F 398.0
Difference of Averages (Co - Cp) For
3141
233.8 ( 131.2,
190.3 ( 145.8,
107.6 ( 51.4,
112.0 ( -2.6,
161.9 ( 100.8,
-14.1 ( -89.8,
206.6 ( 107.0,
138.5 ( 54.7,
184.7 ( 82.9,
308.5 ( 251.4,
-60.6 (-121.0,
251.2 ( 147.3,
415.4 ( 377.0,
336.9 ( 234.8,
336.4)
234.8)
163.8)
226.6)
223.0)
61.6)
306.2)
222.3)
286.5)
365.6)
-0.2)
355.1)
453.8)
439.0)
4141
233.8 ( 131.2, 336.4)
109.3 ( 145.8, 234.8)
107.6 ( 51.4. 163.8)
112.0 ( -2.6, 226.6)
161.9 ( 100.8, 223.0)
-14.1 ( -89.8, 61.6)
206.6 ( 107.0, 306.2)
138.5 ( 54.7, 222.3)
184.7 ( 82.9, 286.5)
308.5 ( 251.4, 365.6)
-60.6 (-121.0, -0.2)
251.2 ( 147.3, 355.1)
415.4 ( 377.0, 435.8)
246.6 ( 144.2, 349.0)
Each Model (119/1*'
TEM-8A
-160.8 (-309.8,
18.2 ( -53.1,
1.5 ( -89.5,
-140.5 (-344.6,
-82.9 (-157,,4,
-22.3 ( -95.6,
121.0 ( 3.3,
-133.4 (-223.1,
-42.2 (-202.8,
275.0 ( 121.2,
-181.5 (-274.3,
-192.9 (-355.4,
375.2 ( 311.2,
389.3 ( 287.3,
)
MULTIMAX
-11.8)
89.5)
92.5)
63.6)
-8.4)
51.0)
238.7)
-43.7)
118.4)
428.8)
-88.7)
-30.4)
439.2)
491.4)
-48.9
32.8
-110.3
-110.3
43.5
30.3
65.0
-82.5
-77.1
218.0
-337.8
54.2
313.0
170.3
(-167.8,
( -33.8,
(-187.7,
(-243.8,
( -22.7,
( -86.2,
( -51.4,
(-179.9,
(-196.8,
( 162.1,
(-426.1,
( -52.3,
( 276.2,
( 66.9,
70.0)
99.4)
-32. y)
23.2)
109.7)
146.8)
181.4)
14.9)
42.6)
273.9)
-249.5)
160.7)
349.8)
273.7)
-------
TABLE 4b-l. DIFFERENCE OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AVERAGES OF THE
25 HIGHEST 802 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTX CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIHBi 3 HOUR
KJ
Data Sets
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
2. By station/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
3. By meteorological
condition (A - S)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 w/aec
2.5 to 5 B/BCC
>5 »/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class B « F
Average
Observed
Value C0
(yg/rf ) HPTBR
476.3 -43.7 ( -99.5,
322.6 12.2 ( -27.4,
286.6 -106.6 (-174.1,
315.9 -87.5 (-159.3,
313.3 -17.7 ( -70.7,
125.6 25.7 ( -40.2,
257.9 94.7 ( 33.2,
316.2 -28.5 ( -97.4,
410.5 -63.6 (-121.3,
308.1 -8.8 ( -65.0,
228.3 -183.4 (-255.0,
359.0 -82.1 (-147.3,
385.5 37.2 ( -3.6,
196.9 44.7 ( -10.6,
Difference of Averages (Co
12.1)
51.8)
-39.1)
-15.7)
35.3)
91.6)
156.2)
*
40.4)
-5.9)
47.4)
-111.8)
-16.9)
78.0)
100.0)
MPSDM
-83.3 (-191.3,
78.8 ( 41.8,
-14.3 ( -63.3,
-156.0 (-244.0,
51.7 ( 3.4,
-108.7 (-233.4,
70.9 ( 13.7,
-181.7 (-300.8,
12.6 ( -40.9,
113.9 ( 62.8,
-134.9 (-198.1,
-152.2 (-271.8,
131.8 ( 89.2,
164.1 ( 115.6,
- Cp) For Each Model (u9/** >
24.7)
115.8)
34.7)
-68.0)
100.0)
16.0)
128.1)
-62.6)
66.1)
165.1)
-71.7)
-32.6)
174.4)
212.6)
COMPTER
-95.6 (-153.0,
-27.1 ( -69.7,
-141.6 (-203.4,
-161.6 (-237.8,
-66.0 (-115.8,
-49.0 (-111.6,
75.2 ( 14.3,
-80.2 (-147.8,
-114.2 (-173.6,
-65.1 (-121.2,
-209.4 (-282.1,
-128.4 (-197.8,
-22.4 ( -63.1,
-66.6 (-128.8,
-38.2)
15.5)
-79.8)
-85.4)
-16.2)
13.6)
136.1)
-12.6)
-54.8)
-9.0)
-136.7)
-59.0)
18.3)
-4.4)
SCSTER
62.9 < 6.0, 119.8)
119.0 ( 79.3, 158.7)
-12.2 { -77.7, 53.3)
20.5 ( -50.7, 91.7)
81.5 ( 30.3, 132.7)
57.8 ( 6.9, 108.7)
95.3 ( 33.8, 156.8)
33.2 ( -34.4, 100.8)
41.1 ( -11.2, 93.4)
179.3 ( 126.6, 232.0)
-132.9 (-203.0, -62.8)
37.2 ( -20.8, 95.2)
197.7 ( 158.9, 236.5)
164.6 ( 116.3, 212.9)
-------
TABLE 4b-2. DIFFERENCE OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AVERAGES OF TUB
25 HIGHEST S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOUR
Average
Observed
Value C0
Data Sets ivg/nf )
1. All stations/all
, events (A - 4a) 476.3
2. By station/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1 322.6
Station 2 286.6
Station 3 315.9
Station 4 313.3
Station 5 125.6
Station 6 257.9
3. By meteorological
condition (A - 5)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/sec 316.2
2.5 to 5 m/sec 410.5
>5 m/sec 308.1
b. Stability Group
Class A t B 228.3
Class C 359.0
Class D 385.5
Class E t e 196.9
Difference of Averages (Co - Cp) For
3141
179.4 ( 133.5, 225.3)
162.0 ( 127.7, 196.3)
60.1 ( 13.9, 106.3)
91.9 ( 25.9, 157.9)
119.4 ( 73.7, 165.1)
31.7 ( -7.7, 71.1)
120.3 ( 65.3, 175.3)
92.6 ( 39.3, 145.9)
144.7 ( 99.5, 189.9)
195.4 ( 144.8, 246.0)
-37.4 ( -96.7, 21.9)
112.6 ( 61.3, 163.9)
251.2 ( 214.0, 288.4)
166.1 ( 118.3, 213.9)
4141
179.4 ( 133.5, 225.3)
159.5 ( 125.6, 193.4)
60.1 ( 13.9, 106.3)
91.9 ( 25.9, 157.9)
118.8 ( 73.1, 164.5)
31.7 ( -7.7, 71.1)
120.3 ( 65.3, 175.3)
92.0 ( 38.8, 145.2)
144.7 ( 99.5, 189.9)
195.4 ( 144.8, 246.0)
-37.4 ( -96.7, 21.9)
112.6 ( 61.3, 163.9)
250.6 ( 213.3, 287.9)
118.8 ( 70.3, 167.3)
Each Model (pg/m*
TEM-8A
39.6 ( -41.4,
91.0 ( 43.2,
26.4 ( -20.7,
-20.4 (-125.3,
20.0 ( -25.9,
27.1 ( -10.7,
61.6 ( 6.2,
9.7 ( -41.9,
26.0 ( -59.2,
214.1 ( 147.2,
-72.9 (-141.1,
-27.5 (-114.0,
214.4 ( 167.8,
193.5 ( 145.9,
>
120.6)
138.8)
73.5)
84.5)
65.9)
64.9)
117.0)
61.3)
111.2)
281.0)
-4.7)
59.0)
261.0)
241.1)
MULTIMAX
74.6 ( 17.6, 131.6)
113.5 ( 74.3, 152.7)
-0.6 ( -65.6, 64.4)
30.7 ( -40.4, 101.8)
86.9 ( 36.8, 137.0)
60.3 ( 11.2, 109.4)
96.0 ( 34.9, 157.1)
'0.8 ( -26.3, 107.9)
55.0 ( 2.4, 107.6)
154.1 ( 102.0, 206.2)
-126.1 (-195.7, -56.5)
52.9 ( -4.6, 110.4)
193.5 ( 155.1, 231.9)
96.9 ( 46.4, 147.4)
-------
TABLE 4c. DIFFERENCE OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AVERAGES OF T1IE
25 HIGHEST SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOUR
Data Sets
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
2. By station/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
it*.
£> Station 5
Station 6
Average
Observed
Value C^
dig/m* ) MPTER
126.7 8.3 (±16.9)
97.4 35.6 (117.6)
65.4 -2.6 (117.6)
78.1 +3.0 (+19.9)
84.5 5.7 (±15.4)
34.9 19.1 (±11.2)
57.5 29.1 (±14.7)
Difference of
MPSDH
18.0 (+18.6)
49.1 (115.1)
8.9 (115.0)
-9.3 (120.9)
24.9 1111.4)
1.5 (117.1)
25.3(113.8)
Averages (C0 - Cp) For Each Model (vg/nt )
COMPTER
-20.3
20.5
-15.8
-27.3
-15.9
4.5
25.9
(«0
(+19
(±17
(±22
(120
(±12
(±14
.2)
.4)
.7)
.0)
.2)
.9)
.8)
54.1
62.7
19.6
28.4
39.3
24.6
29.3
SCSTER
(+14.7)
(±14.4)
(±14.9)
(±18.1)
(±8.9)
(±8.4)
(±14.7)
3141
63.6 (±14.3)
62.0 (±14.4)
25.5 (113.5)
34.5 (117.3)
39.4 (18.4)
20.6 (17.0)
31.4 (113.7)
4141
62.7 (114.3)
59.0 (114.3)
25.4 (+13.5)
34.5 (+17.2)
37.9 (18.5)
20.6 (17.0)
31.5 (±13.7)
TEM-8A
46.5 (115.2)
52.9 (115. 1)
19.7 (112.9)
20.9 (119.3)
27.5 (_+10.1)
18.5 (+7.5)
21.0 (+13.1)
HULTIHAX
52.1 (114.3)
59.2 (114.4)
19.3 (+14.7)
29.4 (±17.8)
35.1 (±9.6)
24.8 (±8.2)
29.4 (±14.6)
-------
TABLE 5a-l. DIFFERENCE OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AVERAGES OP THE
25 HIGHEST S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
1. All stations/all
• events (A - 4a)
2. By station/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
3. By meteorological
condition (A - 5)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 «>/nec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A 6 B
Class C
Class D
Class E 6 F
Average
Observed
Value C0
(pq/n/ ) HPTER
771.8 -313.0 (-369.3,
581.7 18.7 ( -41.6,
658.9 -123.0 (-201.0,
450.2 -578.5 (-643.0,
546.7 -143.6 (-211.8,
321.3 28.1 (-124.5.
496.8 -35.7 (-113.9,
669.0 -284.5 (-365.9,
667.5 -284.8 (-350.3.
458.5 -141.9 (-237.5,
541.4 -462.0 (-548.2,
631.4 -308.0 (-381.7,
672.4 154.9 ( 113.9,
343.5 -28.4 ( -80.9,
Difference of Averages (Co
-256.7)
79.0)
-45.0)
-514.0)
-75.4)
180.7)
42. S)
-203.1)
-219.3)
-46.3)
-375.8)
-234.3)
195.9)
24.1)
MPSDM
-233.2 (-326.2,
23.1 ( -84.6,
12.4 ( -57.9,
-410.7 (-507.2,
-82.2 (-167.0,
-287.6 (-423.5.
-7.5 ( -70.1,
-331.7 (-435.3,
-24.4 ( -79.7,
137.6 ( 86.3,
-329.3 (-426.9,
-261.5 (-360.4,
306.9 ( 251.1,
323-6 ( 281.6,
- Cp> For
-140.2)
130.8)
82.7)
-314.2)
2.6)
-151.7)
55.1)
-228.1)
30.9)
188. 9)
-231.7)
-162.6)
362.7)
365.6)
Each Model (pg/m1
COMPTER
-374.9 (-427.8,
-81.7 (-147.8,
-169.8 (-248.0,
-665.8 (-723.0,
-161.9 (-227.0,
-201.9 (-352.4,
-60.6 (-133.1,
-353.4 (-428.2,
-379.6 (-445.6,
-182.6 (-273.0,
-511.6 (-593.0,
-405.0 (-480.9,
103.2 ( 63.0,
-296.6 (-351.1,
)
-322.0)
-15.6)
-91.6)
-608.6)
-96.8)
-51.4)
11.9)
-278.6)
-313.6)
-92.2)
-430.2)
-329.1)
143.4)
-240.1)
SCSTER
-135.1 (-205.2,
121.6 ( 67.1,
25.5 ( -57.4,
-341.6 (-414.7,
-29.2 ( -92.6,
133.0 ( -6.6,
-34.0 (-112.4,
-157.6 (-246.4,
-61.9 (-134.3,
140.4 ( 55.8,
-352.6 (-439.1,
-37.0 (-102.9,
422.2 ( 382.0,
259.7 ( 219.3,
-65.0)
176.1)
108.4)
-268.5)
34.2)
272.6)
44.4)
-68.8)
10.5)
225.0)
-266.1)
28.9)
462.4)
300.1)
-------
TABLE 5a-2. DIFFERENCE OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AVERAGES OF TUB
25 HIGHEST SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTV CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIMEt 1 HOUR
Average
Observed
Value C0
Data Sets (vg/nf )
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a) 771.8
2. By station/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1 581.7
Station 2 658.9
Station 3 450.2
Station 4 546.7
Station 5 321.3
Station 6 496.8
3. By meteorological
condition (A - 5)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 n/sec 669.0
2.5 to 5 n/sec 667.5
>5 n/sec 458.5
b. Stability Group
Class A l B • 541.4
Class C 631.4
Class D 672.4
Class E (. F 343.5
Difference of Averages (Co - Cp) For
3141
206.2 ( 152.1, 260.3)
282.1 ( 237.4, 326.8)
242.0 ( 178.7, 305.3)
-75.8 (-133.1, -18.5)
142.9 ( 97.1, 180.7)
125.3 ( 31.6, 219.0)
147.6 ( 101.5, 193.7)
146.1 ( 74.1, 218.1)
185.8 ( 136.7, 234.9)
259.4 ( 194.6, 324.2)
-17.6 ( -88.7, 53.5)
191.1 ( 128.8, 253.4)
522.1 ( 483.3, 560.9)
277.4 ( 238.3, 316.5)
4141
206.2 ( 152.1, 260.3)
282.1 ( 237.4, 326.8)
242.0 ( 178.7, 305.3)
-75.8 (-133.1, -18.5)
142.9 ( 97.1, 188.7)
125.3 ( 31.6, 219.0)
147.6 ( 101.5, 193.7)
146.1 ( 74.1, 218.1)
185.8 ( 136.7, 234.9)
259.4 ( 194.6, 324.2)
-17.6 ( -88.7, 53.5)
191.1 ( 128.8, 253.4)
522.1 ( 483.3, 560.9)
184.6 ( 144.8, 224.4)
Each Model (yg/n' )
• TEM-8A
38.9 ( -46.0, 123.8)
197.7 ( 123.6, 271.8)
302.6 ( 224.2, 381.0)
6.5 ( -95.9, 108.9)
36.1 ( -39.1, 111.3)
76.0 ( -14.1, 166.1)
62.5 ( -27.1, 152.1)
-42.6 (-138.7, 53.5)
282.1 ( 227.7, 336.5)
306.3 ( 223.0, 389.6)
-18.7 (-115.4, 78.0)
1.2 ( -96.2, 98.6)
454.4 ( 393.6, 515.2)
281.1 ( 223.6, 338.6)
MULTIHAX
-119.8 (-193.4, -46.2)
134.2 ( 79.6, 188.8)
72.9 < -15.1, 160.9)
-316.9 (-393.4, -240.4)
-14.0 ( -76.1, 48.1)
132.4 ( -4.4, 269.2)
-27.2 (-110.1, 55.7)
-154.0 (-247.3, -60.7)
-22.1 ( -93.2, 49.0)
136.6 ( 62.8, 210.4)
-348.6 (-434.8, -262.4)
16.3 ( -47.3, 79.9)
399.7 ( 358.7, 440.7)
96.3 ( 52.8, 139.8)
-------
TABLE 5b-l. DIFFERENCE OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AVERAGES OF THE
25 HIGHEST S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTX CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOUR
Data Sets
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
2. By station/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
3. By meteorological
condition (A - 5)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 in/sec
2.5 to 5 a/sec
> 5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E 4 F
Average
Observed
Value C0
(liq/rf ) MPTER
480.9 -54.2 (-105.4,
372.7 49.5 ( 2.4,
373.6 56.1 ( 1.5,
252.8 -191.5 (-261.9.
360.2 24.0 ( -32.0,
177.1 62.5 ( -10.2,
287.8 78.0 ( 29.1,
338.6 -38.5 ( -87.9,
445.5 -61.6 (-120.5,
316.0 6.0 ( -46.0,
263.8 -163.0 (-225.0,
364.3 -89.4 (-151.1,
443.1 107.1 ( 69.0,
217.9 47.1 ( -4.8,
Difference of Averages (Co
- Cp) For
MPSDM
-3.0)
96.6)
110.7)
-121.1)
80.0)
135.2)
126.9)
10.9)
-2.7)
58.0)
-101.0)
-27.7)
145.2)
99.0)
-45.4
113.1
97.3
-209.8
49.4
-55.8
90.0
-120.3
25.6
129.4
-165.7
-73.1
187.9
IBS. 8
(-103.6,
( 71.9,
( 47.0,
(-283.0,
( -15.0,
(-119.0,
( 56.2,
(-182.8,
( -29.8,
( 84.4,
(-238.7,
(-128.5,
( 153.9,
( 149.0,
12.8)
154.3)
147.6)
-136.6)
113.8)
7.4)
123.8)
-57.8)
81.0)
174.4)
-92.7)
-17.7)
221.9)
222.6)
Each Model dig/in1 )
COMPTER
-127.0
-6.6
14.1
-279.5
-9.6
-36.3
65.1
-87.6
-130.1
-42.6
-192.5
-150.9
42.6
-71.9
(-184.2,
1 -58.4,
( -39.1,
(-352.1,
( -64.1,
(-109.2,
( 16.8,
(-136.8,
(-196.6,
( -97.7,
(-258.4,
(-219.4,
( 2.1,
(-131.3,
-69.8)
45.2)
67.3)
-206.9)
44.9)
36.6)
113.4)
-38.4)
-63.6)
12.5)
-126.6)
-82.4)
83.1)
-12.5)
SCSTER
66.7
154.4
123.0
-65.9
109.2
104.5
78.7
29.2
46.7
156.0
-J03.3
22.5
236.1
182.0
( 22.3,
( 113.1,
( 70.8,
(-124.1,
( 58.0,
( 42.1,
( 29.9,
( -11.5,
( -1.8,
( 109.3,
(-155.8,
( -26.0,
( 203.1,
( 146.8,
111.1)
195.7)
175.2)
-7.7)
160.4)
166.9)
127.5)
b9.9)
95.2)
202.7)
-50.8)
71.0)
269.1)
218.8)
-------
TABLE 5b-2. DIFFERENCE OF ODSERVED AND PREDICTED AVERAGES OF THE
25 HIGHEST SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOUR
00
Average
Observed
Value C0
Data Sets (uq/m1 )
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a) 480.9
2. By station/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1 372.7
Station 2 373.6
Station 3 252.8
Station 4 360.2
Station 5 177.1
Station 6 287.8
3. By meteorological
condition (A - 5)
a. Mind Speed
<2.5 m/sec 338.6
2.5 to 5 m/sec 445.5
>5 m/sec 316.0
b. Stability Group
Class A & B 263.8
Class C 364.3
Class D 443.1
Class E s F 217.9
Difference of Averages (Co - Cp) For
3141
190.3 ( 154.7, 225.9)
209.0 ( 175.1. 242.9)
179.4 ( 136.1, 222.7)
12.5 ( -31.0, 56.0)
156.6 ( 110.0, 202.4)
96.9 ( 47.9, 145.9)
130.1 ( 96.6, 163.6)
111.3 ( 74.3, 148.3)
170.8 ( 132.3, 209.3)
191.8 ( 146.4. 237.2)
9.3 ( -33.9, 52.5)
113.1 ( 71.8, 154.4)
306.3 ( 274.9, 337.7)
183.0 ( 148.0, 218.0)
4141
190.3 ( 154.7, 225.9)
205.8 ( 172.0, 239.6)
179.4 ( 136.1, 222.7)
12.5 ( -31.0, 56.0)
156.6 ( 110.8, 202.4)
96.9 ( 47.9, 145.9)
130.1 ( 96.6, 163.6)
111.3 ( 74.3, 148.3)
170.8 ( 132.3, 209.3)
191.8 ( 146.4, 237.2)
9.3 ( -33.9, 52.5)
113.1 ( 71.8, 154.4)
306.3 ( 274.9, 337.7)
138.7 ( 101.6, 175.8)
Each Model hig/m* )
TEM-8A
147.4 ( 93.6, 201.2)
180.6 ( 141.7, 219.5)
186.8 ( 141.0, 232.6)
11.8 ( -49.9, 73.5)
122.6 ( 69.8, 175.4)
78.4 ( 35.9, 120.9)
93.5 ( 58.8, 128.2)
36.4 ( -19.2, 92.0)
202.2 ( 160.4, 244.0)
231.6 ( 185. 3, 277.9)
-4.9 ( -65.7, 55.9)
108.5 ( 60.8, 156.2)
271.3 ( 228.0, 314.6)
200.0 ( 163.1, 236.9)
MULTIMAX
86.2 ( 42.0, 130.4)
147.1 ( 106.2, 108.0)
143.6 ( 91.6, 195.6)
-53.0 (-109.3, 3.3)
119.8 ( 72.3, 167.3)
104.8 ( 43.8, 165.8)
81.6 ( 31.7, 131.5)
40.0 ( -0.3, 80.3)
65.2 ( 17.6, 112.8)
147.0 ( 100.8, 193.2)
-93.5 (-144.3, -42.7)
44.9 ( -2.5, 92.3)
236.4 ( 203.4, 269.4)
106.3 ( 64.6, 148.0)
-------
&
TABLE 5c. DIFFERENCE OK OBSERVED AND PREDICTED AVERAGES OF TUB
25 HIGHEST SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOUR
Data Sets
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
2. By station/all
events (A - 4b)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
i Station 5
Station 6
Average
Observed
Value O.
(\tq/af ) MPTER
125.3 -1.4 (±9.
Difference of Averages (Co - Cp) For Each Model (vg/tf )
1)
96.4 20.8 (±14.2)
84.0 27.4 (±12
64.3 -27.8 (±21
107.7 15.8 (±15
40.1 24.4 (±11
71.8 43.8 (±10
-1)
.3)
.4)
.8)
-0)
HPSDM
23.3 (±13.2)
40.0 (±11.0)
36.6 (±9.7)
-19.7 (±17.8)
36.2 (±14.1)
7.2 (±11.6)
40.2 (±9.7)
COHPTER
-26.8
6.6
13.9
-60.5
-2.4
6.3
40.3
(±16.3)
(±15.9)
(±12.6)
(±20.1)
(±17.6)
(±13.7)
(±10.1)
39.7
49.2
41.0
.9
53.0
30.2
44.0
SCSTER
(±13.8)
(±11.3)
(±11.2)
(±18.3)
(±12.8)
(±10.3)
(±10.0)
3141
55.4 (±10.3)
52.5 (±9.4)
45.4 (±9.2)
10.9 (±14.2)
53.7 (±12.0)
27.5 (±9.0)
47.2 (±9.0)
4141
53.4 (±10.1)
49.6 (±9.7)
45.2 (±9.2)
10.9 (±14.2)
52.4 (±12.0)
27.5 (±9.0)
47.2 (±8.9)
TEH-BA
58.5 (±9.5)
55.0 (±9.5)
46.1 (±15.9)
18.4 (±12.8)
55.2 (±12.4)
24.9 (±8.2)
36.1 (±8.6)
HULT1MAX
40.3 (±13.4)
45.3 (±11.5)
43.2 (±10.9)
2.5 (±17.7)
48.9 (±12.5)
30.3 (±10.1)
45.0 (±9.9)
-------
TABLE 6a. AVERAGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-B^-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
1.
2.
3.
Ul
o
4.
Data Sets
Highest concentration.
e vent-by-event (A-l)
All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 IB/BBC
2.5 to 5 a/sec
> 5 n/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A 4 B
Class C
Class D
Class E 4 F
Number
of
Events*
3576
5561
1357
825
1037
995
694
653
2271
2819
471
565
974
2899
1123
Average
Observed
Value C0*
(Kg/in1 )
115.1
93.2
95.3
102.9
92.0
100.1
59.6
103.5
88.3
91.2
128.3
101.9
111.4
98.5
59.2
Difference of Averages (Co - Cp) For Each Model (ng/ra1 )
MPTER
34.9 (±9.7)
36.5 (±6.8)
42.2 (+14.4)
25.6 (+18.7)
35.3 (±17.3)
6.8 (+16.8)
46.1 (±8.5)
75.3 (±18.2)
43.4 (+9.8)
32.0 (+9.4)
29.8 (+31.4)
-34.9 (+29.4)
-5.5 (722.0)
63.9 (±7.2)
37.9 (±10.6)
MPSDM
31.0 (±10.0)
33.2 (±6.9)
51.9 (+13.0)
29.7 (+10.6)
10.7 (+14.7)
19.8 (+10.5)
30.4 (+12.6)
58.7 (±14.3)
14.9 (±12.3)
44.2 (+7.9)
59.9 (±24.5)
-53.4 (+35.3)
-23.2 (+21.4)
58.6 (+6.2)
63.7 (+8.4)
COMPTER
-3.4 (±10.0)
9.0 (±7.1)
24.9 (+15.5)
-1.2 (+18.1)
-11.9 (+1.7.5)
-30.0 (+17.8)
27.8 (+10.6)
67.5 (±18.0)
18.2 (+10.2)
2.7 (+10.1)
0.7 (±31.6)
-41.7 (+30.8)
-27.9 (+24.1)
30.5 (+7.7)
6.8 (±13.3)
SCSTfiR
71.9 (±8.4)
62.7 (±5.8)
69.5 (+12.0)
57.6 (+17.8)
60.7 (+14.8)
59.6 (+13.4)
51.1 (+6.7)
75.4 (±18.1)
57.4 (±9.1)
60.3 (77.8)
103.9 (±23.6)
-16.3 (+27.3)
31.1 (±18.0)
90.6 (±5.9)
58.7 1+8.5)
3141
71.3 (+7.6)
56.2 (+5.4)
59.8 (+11.5)
54.8 (+15.9)
57.9 (+14.2)
48.5 (+11.8)
46.0 (+7.1)
70.0 (±17.5)
50.0 (+8.6)
56.2 (+7.0)
86.5 (±24.8)
-16.2 (+20.3)
20.9 (+15.2)
85.8 (±6.1)
56.4 (±8.5)
4141
67.7 (±7.7)
53.9 (+5.5)
55.4 (+11.7)
54.3 (+15.7)
57.9 (±14.2)
41.8 (+11.7)
46.0 (+7.1)
70.0 (±17.5)
47.9 (±8.6)
53.2 (+7.1)
86.5 (±24.7)
-16.2 (+20.3)
20.9 (+15.3)
85.8 (±6.1)
44.4 (+8.9)
TEM-8A
68.2 (+8.8)
45.8 (±6.2)
58.6 (+12.9)
43.1 (+15.8)
39.6 (±15.1)
35.6 (+17.3)
43.8 (+7.1)
50.6 (±18.2)
23.8 (±9.8)
55.2 (±7.7)
111.7 (±24.4)
-51.8 (±17.9)
-21.6 (+16.3)
96.3 (+5.6)
64.7 (7s. 5)
HULTIMAX
65.3 (±8.3)
58.1 (±5.8)
63.4 (±12.3)
53.6 (+16.8)
58.8 (+14.4)
46.8 (+13.7)
51.1 (+6.6)
75.7 (±18.1)
55.9 (±9.0)
54.8 (+7.8)
89.3 (±23.1)
-12.9 (±27.1)
34.6 (+17.7)
84.8 (±6.0)
45.4 (79.6)
Due to the effects of imposing a threshold cutoff value, the number of events and
the average observed value differ slightly from model to model. The values listed
are those for MPTER.
-------
TABLE 6b. AVERAGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Data Seta
Average
Number Observed
of Value C0*
Events* (yg/af )
Difference of Averages 5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A i B
Class C
Class D
Class E t F
532
335
396
398
231
247
595
1269
275
203
408
1162
366
78.5
80.0
76.5
78.8
52.2
85.1
73.4
73.4
95.9
76.1
90.5
78.8
52.9
34.2
17.5
28.9
5.1
38.9
61.1
40.4
24.0
26.1
-27.6
12.0
42.7
34.8
(+14.3)
(+16.1)
(+16.6)
(+14.5)
(+10.6)
(+18.2)
(+11. 11
(J8.7)
(£19. 9)
(+24.8)
(+"l8.6)
(+7.6)
(+12.2)
43.3 (+12.2)
21.6 (+14.8)
7.3 (+19.8)
15.6 (+12.8)
22.6 (+16.2)
48.4 (+17.9)
11.3 (+13.7)
29.7 (+8.0)
44.6 (+15.1)
-33.6 (+22.9)
-12.0 (+20.5)
42.2 O6.5)
55.5 (+9.7)
19.6 (+15.3)
-3.5 (+.15.1)
-10.3 (.+16.4)
-23.7 (+15.5)
21.8 (+11.8)
54.8 (+18.3)
18.3 (+11.7)
1.4 (+9.1)
-1.2 (+.19.7)
-35.8 (+27.0)
-3.6 (+20.0)
15.4 (+8.2)
6.6 (+13.5)
58.1 (+12.2)
43.5 (+15.9)
49.9 (114.4)
50.7 (+12.2)
43.3 (18.2)
61.2 (+18.2)
52.4 (+10.3)
45.9 (+7.6)
76.9 (114.2)
-14.5 (122.7)
36.6 (+16.0)
68.2 (Te. 1)
55.0 WO.O)
51.0 (+11.6)
43.0 (+14.3)
47.9 (+13.9)
41.4 (+11.2)
39.1 (+7.8)
55.8 (+17.1)
47.0 (+9.8)
42.0 (+6.&)
68.7 U16.2)
-13.3 (+17.0)
26.9 (+13.8)
64.3 (+6.1)
54.7 (+10.0)
45.7 (111.6)
42.9 (+14.3)
47.8 (+13.9)
34.4 (HO. 8)
39.1 (17.8)
55.8 (117.1)
44.1 (19.7)
39.1 (+6.8)
68.7 (116.2)
-13.4 (+16.9)
26.9 (114.0)
63.2 (16.2)
41.3 (110. 1)
48.9 (112.8)
33.2 (+15.4)
31.4 (+14.5)
27.4 (+16.3)
36.3 (+8.2)
39.5 (118.2)
20.7 (ill. 2)
35.5 (+5.2)
83.4 (+17.0)
-39.1 (+16.2)
-6.1 (+13.4)
67.2 (+6.6)
59.2 (+10.4)
53.6 (112.3
40.4 (114. 7
48.7 (113.9
38.1 (+12.6
43.6 (17.9)
61.5 (118.1
50.7 (+10.3
42.0 (+7.6)
67.2 (114.0
-12.3 (123.0
39.7 (115.8
62.8 (16.1)
42.5 (+11.1
Due to the effects of imposing a threshold cutoff value, the number of events and
the average observed value differ slightly fron model to model. The values listed
are tl.ose for MPTER.
-------
TABLE 6c. AVERAGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Data Sets
Average
Number Observed
of Value C0*
Events*
Difference of Averages (Co - Cp) For Each Model dig/m* )
MPTER
HPSDM
COMPTER
SCSTER
3141
4141
TEM-8A
HULTIHAX
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
335
38.5
13.5 (+4.4) 13.3 (+4.3)
3.4 (_+4.6) 24.1 (±4.6) 23.9 (+4.2) 23.1 (j+4.1) 22.2 (+4.8)
22.7 (+4.2)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(D-3)
1115
22.6
10.9 (+2.0) 10.3 (+2.0)
5.2 (+2.2) 16.2 (+1.8) 15.1 (.+1.8) 14.5 (±1.8) 13.0 (±1.9)
Due to the effects of imposing a threshold cutoff value, the number of events and
the average observed value differ slightly from model to model. The values listed
are those for MPTER.
15.3 (+1.8)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
211
184
194
187
206
133
29.0
21.5
24.4
24.7
13.7
22.2
15.0
7.5
11.5
4.3
11.8
16.4
(+6.4)
(+3.9)
(+5.6)
(+4.4)
(+1.8)
(+5.0)
17.5 (+6.0)
8.3 (+4.1)
6.5 (+5.8)
7.1 (+3.7)
9.4 (+3.0)
13.3 (+4.8)
10.6
2.4
0.5
-3.9
9.2
15.0
(+6.6)
(+3.8)
(+6.2)
(+5.3)
(+2.1)
t+5.0)
21.8 (+6.2)
13.4 (+.4.0)
16.9 (+4.9)
15.7 (+4.0)
12.4 (+1.7)
16.5 (+5.0)
19.8 (+6.2)
13.1 r+3.8)
16.6 (14.8)
13.3 (+3.6)
11.8 (+1.8)
15.5 (+4.9)
18.6 (+4.7)
13.0 (+4.2)
16.6 (14.5)
11.5 (+4.2)
11.8 (+1.6)
15.5 (+4.8)
18.6
11.0
13.0
10.6
11.6
12.0
(+6.1)
(+4.4)
(+4.4)
(+5.1)
(+1.7)
(+5.4)
20.2 (+6.0)
12.7 (+3.7)
16.5 (+4.8)
13.0 (+4.0)
12.5 (11.7)
16.5 (+5.0)
-------
TABLE 7a. AVERAGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BV-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIHEl 1 HOUR
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by -event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2 ,
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
> 5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E I F
Number
of
Events*
4127
6523
1515
1202
1114
1331
485
876
2184
3873
466
544
1229
3513
1237
Average
Observed
Value C0*
(ug/rf )
127.7
99.1
100.0
102.9
85.9
102.4
78.2
115.9
92.0
100.7
119.1
113.2
111.1
107.0
58.6
Difference of Averages (C0 - Cp) For
HPTER
45.9
41.8
42.6
58.9
11.8
11.0
55.0
92.1
38.9
46.6
15.1
-28.0
-6.9
70.6
38.9
(±8.9)
(±6.9)
(+15.8)
(+14.6)
(+19.2)
(+17.0)
(+13.4)
(+12.1)
(+11.5)
(+9.0)
(±30.1)
(+35.0)
(+21.7)
(+7.6)
(+9.4)
MPSDM
50.0
44.4
56.6
59.6
9.1
27.8
34.6
79.9
18.6
59.0
50.7
-29.4
-4.4
67.0
63.4
(±8.5)
(±6.3)
(+13.9)
(+13.5)
(+17.6)
(+15.5)
(+15.6)
(±11.5)
(+11.6)
1+7. B)
(±22.0)
(+31.9)
(+19.1)
( + 7.1)
(+5.4)
COMPTER
7.4
14.5
28.3
34.6
-38.7
-18.6
27.8
86.1
12.6
19.4
-17.2
-40.7
-28.3
37.6
10.7
(±9.5)
(±7.4)
(+16.9)
(+15.6)
(+18.8)
(+18.0)
(+15.6)
(±12.1)
(+12.2)
(+9.8)
(±31.2)
(+36.0)
(+24.0)
(+8.4)
(+12.6)
SCSTER
82.4
67.7
69.1
78.2
44.3
58.8
66.4
92.2
53.6
74.3
80.8
-10.9
25.1
99.1
58.3
(±7.6)
(±5.9)
(+13.6)
(+13.7)
(±15.6)
(+15.0)
(+11.9)
(±12.0)
(+10.2)
(+7.7)
(±22.6)
(+32.0)
(+17.4)
(+6.4)
(+6.0)
Each Model (ug/irf )
3141
82.8
.
62.1
61.9
73.4
42.9
49.5
61.3
89.9
47.9
68.6
77.4
-7.6
16.8
94.0
56.5
(±7.1)
(±5.5)
(+12.8)
(+13.2)
(+13.8)
(+13.0)
(+11.1)
(±11.7)
(+9.2)
(+7.3)
(±20.6)
(+23.7)
(+15. J)
(+6.4)
(+6.0)
4141
79.7 (±7.1)
59.9 (±5.6)
58.2 (+13.0)
72.6 (+9.7)
42.9 (±13.8)
44.2 (+12.9)
61.3 (±11.1)
89.9 (±11.7)
45.6 (+9.3)
66.2 (+7.3)
77.4 (±20.7)
-7.6 (+23.7)
16.8 (+15.1)
94.0 (±6.4)
45.4 (+7.0)
TEM-8A
89.0
62.4
71.2
70.1
43.1
57.0
54.9
72.8
29.8
78.3
108.8
-36.5
10.0
108.0
62.3
(+7.8)
(+5.8)
(+13.5)
(+12.8)
(±13.7)
(+16.0)
(+11.6)
(±12.7)
(+10.3)
(+7.0)
(±20.0)
(+21.5)
(+13.9)
(+6.3)
(+5.9)
HUL.TIMAX
76.2 (±7.4)
63.3 (±5.9)
64.2 (±14.0.
74.9 (+13.1.
41.8 (+14.7:
47.7 (±14.8
66.3 (±11.8:
92.9 (±12.0:
52.3 (+10.0
69.0 (+7.7)
68.1 (±22.1
-8.3 (+31.1
30.2 (+16.8:
92.6 (+6.6)
46.1 (+8.0)
Due to the effects of imposing a threshold cutoff value, the number of events and
the average observed value differ slightly from model to model. The values listed
are those for MPTER.
-------
TABLE 7b. AVERAGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OOSERVED AND PREDICTED
CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTIT CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIHEi 3 HOURS
Ui
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 a/sec
2.S to 5 m/oec
> 5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E * F
Number
of
Events*
147B
2525
598
460
426
526
172
341
591
1533
401
209
476
1394
446
Average
Observed
Value C0*
(M9/W )
105.6
61.6
61.8
86.7
70.8
82.6
66.0
94.5
76.0
81.5
90.5
69.6
87.0
87.9
52.7
Difference of Averages (Co - Cp) For Each Model (|ig/n? )
HPTER
39.5 (+8.7)
33.5 (+6.6)
34.1 (+15.2)
49.3 (+12.6)
7.6 (+20.1)
8.7 (+14.8)
48.1 (+11.4)
74.4 (+11.2)
33.4 (+12.7)
34.7 1+8.8)
28.7 (+.17.1)
-12.1 (+31.3)
6.3 (+19.4)
48.5 (+8.0)
36.6 (+9.4)
MPSDM
42.4
35.9
45.9
48.6
5.6
22.7
25.5
65.1
9.0
44.5
46.4
-16.4
2.3
49.7
55.0
(+7.6)
(+5.8)
(±12.6)
(+10.8)
(+18.1)
(+13.3)
(+13.5)
(+10.6)
(+12.3)
(+7.4)
(+13.2)
(+29.6)
(+16.2)
(+6.7)
(+6.0)
COMPTER
9.1 (+.9.2)
10.8 (+7.1)
22.2 (±16.4)
27.4 (+13.0)
-34.2 (±19.0)
-15.0 (+15.5)
21.5 (+14.4)
69.7 (±11.2)
13.1 (+13.3)
12.1 (+9.4)
2.2 (+18.4)
-24.2 (±33.4)
-9.4 (+21.2)
22.0 (+8.8)
11.5 (+11.8)
SCSTER
68.7 (+7.5)
55.2 (+5.7)
56.4 (+13.1)
64.2 (+11.8)
34.4 (+16.1)
49.0 (+14.3)
55.6 (+10.0)
74.5 (+11.1)
44.5 (+10.7)
55.8 (+7.6)
69.4 (±13.5)
1.0 (+26.9)
26.1 (+16.0)
74.5 (+6.6)
54.5 (+6.3)
3141
69.8 (+6.8)
51.3 (+5.2)
52.5 (+11.9)
60.5 (+11.0)
32.9 (+14.2)
42.2 (+12.8)
52.3 (+10.3)
72.1 (±10.9)
38.8 (+10.0)
52.5 (+6.9)
6G.7 (±13.0)
3.0 (+21.9)
19.4 (+13.6)
70.8 (+6.3)
53.3 (+6.4)
4141
66.8 (+6.9)
49.3 (±5.3)
49.0 (+12.2)
60.4 (+9.2)
32.9 (±14.1)
37.0 (+12.3)
52.3 (+10.3)
72.1 (±10.9)
37.0 (±10.0)
50.0 (±6.9)
66.5 (±12.9)
3.0 (+21.8)
19.4 (+13.7)
70.1 (±6.3)
43.6 (+7.2)
TEM-8A
73.3 (±7.5)
50.8 (±5.4)
60.0 (±12.3)
57.2 (+10.8).
33.8 (+13.2)
45.8 (±15.4)
44.7 (±11.5)
58.3 (±11.4)
20.2 (+10.9)
56.1 (+6.7)
85.5 (±12.4)
-16.2 (±18.3)
11.6 (±12.4)
76.8 (+6.4)
56.9 (+6.4)
HUI.TIMAX
64.0 (±7.3
51.5 (±5.7
51.8 (±13.
63.2 (+11.
33.2 (±15.
38.2 (±13.
55.8 (+9.8
75.1 (±11.
43.8 (+10.
51.9 (+7.5
61.9 (±13.
3.3 (+26.
29.4 (+15.
69.6 (±6.7
43.1 (+8.0
Due to tha effects of imposing a threshold cutoff value, the number of events and
the average observed value differ slightly from model to model. The values listed
are those for-HPTER.
-------
TABLE 7c. AVERAGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
CONCENTRATION VALUES EVEKT-BY-EVKNT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME I 24 HOURS
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-eyent (A-l)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
In tine and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
ui Station 4
01 Station 5
Station 6
Number
of
Events*
355
1165
245
233
188
215
122
162
Average
Observed
Value CQ*
(wq/rf )
46.0
26.2
28.7
26.3
23.9
29.5
15.8
28.3
Difference of Averages (Co - Cp) For
MPTER
18.0
12.7
13.7
16.8
5.8
5.2
12.6
23.3
(±4.0)
(±2.1)
(+5.2)
(+3.8)
(+6.4)
(+4.6)
(+2.5)
(+3.9)
HPSDM
20.3
13.4
17.4
16.9
5.4
9.5
8.7
20.9
(±3.7)
(±1.8)
(+4.6)
(+3.6)
(+5.2)
(+4.4)
(+2.6)
(+3.4)
COMPTER
7.4
6.4
10.2
11.6
-7.6
-2.8
7.7
22.0
(±4.5)
(±2.4)
(+5.7)
(+4.0)
(+7.0)
(+5.0)
(+3.4)
(+3.8)
SCSTER
29.2
18.5
20.6
20.7
13.0
17.6
14.0
23.3
(±3.9)
(±1.9)
(+4.8)
(+3.6)
(+5.0)
(+5.4)
(+2.3)
(+3.9)
Bach Model (119/0? >
3141
29.9
17.5
19.6
19.7
13.0
15.4
13.3
22.6
(±3.6)
(±1.8)
(+4.6)
(+3.5)
(+4.6)
(+4.8)
(+2.4)
(+3.8)
4141
29.2
17.0
18.5
19.6
13.0
14.1
13.3
22.6
(±3.5)
(±1.8)
(+4.4)
(+3.5)
(+4.6)
(+4.7)
(±2.4)
(+3.8)
TEH-8A
31.3
17.6
21.4
19.5
13.8
16.6
12.1
19.1
(±4.3)
(±1.9)
(+4.7)
(+3.5)
(+4.4)
(+6.1)
(+2-6)
(+3-8)
MULTIMAX
27.9
17.6
19.3
20.4
12.6
14.5
14.0
23.4
(±3.7)
(±1.9)
(+4.9)
(+3.5)
(+4.8)
(+4.9)
(+2.3)
(+3.8)
Due to the effects of Imposing a threshold cutoff value, the number of events and
the average observed value differ slightly from model to model. The values listed
are those for HPTER.
-------
TABLE 8a. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND
MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIMEI 1 HOUR
Model
MPTER
(CRSTER,
PLUMES)
MPSDM
COMPTBR
SCSTER
3141
cn
4141
TEM-8A
HULTIMAX
Highest observed
value over all
events and locations
Cofliax
Jug/in' )
1672.7
1672.7
1672.7
1672.7
1672.7
1672.7
1672.7
1672.7
Highest predicted
value over all
events and locations
Cpfliax
(Mg/rf )
1492.5
2940.0
1529.0
1374.4
727.8
727.8
1793.2
1383.7
Difference of
maximum values
Co - Cp
(ug/ra1 }
180.2
-1267.3
143.7
298.2
944.9
944.9
-120.5
289.0
Average of
maximum values
observed at
each station
Co
dig/m* )
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
Average of
maximum valuen
predicted at
each station
Cp
(lig/m1 )
1207.9
1592.0
1228.0
1027.3
591.3
591.3
1043.0
1020.3
Average
difference
C0 - Cp
(Mg/m» )
-213.4
-597.5
-233.5
-32.8
403.2
403.2
-48.5
-25.8
-------
TABLE Bb. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND
MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES
CLIFFY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOUR
Highest observed Highest predicted
value over all value over all
• events and locations events and locations
Model (pg/n* )
MPTER
(CRSTER,
PLUMBS) 794.0
MPSDM 794.0
COHPTER 794.0
SCSTER 794.0
3141 794.0
4141 794.0
TEH-8A 794.0
MULTIMAX 794.0
Cppax
(ng/n1 )
741.1
1560.9
760.9
702.3
450.3
450.3
939.2
692.6
Difference of Average of
maximum values maximum values
observed at
each station
Cr* f*
O ~ cp CO
(ug/rf ) (ug/pr1 )
52.9 543.3
-766.9 543.3
33.1 543.3
91.7 543.3
343.7 543.3
343.7 543.3
-145.2 543.3
101.4 543.3
Average of Average
maximum values difference
predicted at
each station
CO f*
p O ^p
(\>q/ttf ) (iig/a'T
540.3 - 3.0
693.3 -150.0
602.3 -59.0
476.3 -67.0
314.7 228.6
314.7 228.6
508.3 35.0
465.5 77.8
-------
CD
TABLE 80. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND
MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME) 24 HOUR
Highest observed Highest predicted
value over all value over all
events and locations events and locations
Comax Cpinax
Model (iig/m* ) (vg/af )
HPTER
(CRSTER,
PLUMBS) 209.5
MPSDM 209.5
COMPTER 209.5
SCSTER 209.5
3141 209.5
4141 209.5
TEH- 8 A 209.5
MULTIMAX 209.5
171.1
195.2
241.6
106.6
96.8
96.8
142.1
104.9
Difference of Average of
maximum values maximum values
observed at
each station
(uq/af J (tig/a* )
38.4 151.8
14.3 151.8
-32.1 151.8
102.9 151.8
112.7 151.8
112.7 151.8
67.3 151.8
104.6 151.8
Average of
maximum values
predicted at
each station
(ug/rf )
135.5
130.1
171.2
83.1
74.6
74.6
92.4
85.7
Average
difference
foA
16.3
21.7
-19.4
68.7
77.2
77.2
59.4
66.1
-------
TABLE 9a. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND
MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Model
MPTER
(CRSTEK,
PLUMBS)
MPSDM
COMPTER
SCSTER
3141
S ««
TEM-BA
MULTIMAX
Highest observed
value over all
events and locations
Comax
dig/m* )
950.6
950.8
950.8
950.8
950.8
950. B
950.8
950.8
Highest predicted
value over all
events and locations
Cpinax
(wg/rf )
1422.4
1512.1
1438.8
1422.2
841.3
841.3
1309.9
1398.7
Difference of
maximum values
C0 - Cp
(ng/rf {
-471.6
-561.3
-488.0
-471.4
109.5
109.5
-359.1
-447.9
Average of
maximum values
observed at
each station
C0
(ng/n1 )
858.1
858.1
858.1
858.1
658. 1
858.1
858.1
858.1
Average of
maximum values
predicted at
each station
Cp
(U9/V )
1118.1
1152.9
1160.3
1023.3
626.2
626.2
953.0
1025.9
Average
difference
Co - «->
lug/m')
-260.0
-294.8
-302.2
-165.2
231.9
231.9
94.9
-167.8
-------
TABLE 9b. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND
MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIMEI 3 HOUR
Highest observed
value over all
events and locations
Model dig/m1 )
MPTER
(CRSTBR.
PLUMBS) 623.7
MPSDM 623.7
COMPTER 623.7
SCSTER 623.7
3141 623.7
4141 623.7
TEM-8A 623.7
MULTIMAX 623.7
Highest predicted
value over all
events and locations
C-max
(ug/m1 )
856.0
947.1
1008.4
657.0
453.4
453.4
763.7
616.0
Difference of
maximum values
co- Cp
(yg/rf )
-232.3
-323.4
-384.7
-33.3
170.3
170.3
-140.1
7.6
Average of
maximum values
observed at
each station
(Mg/nr1 )
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
Average of Average
maximum values difference
predicted at
each station
(ng/rf ) (iig/m1)
579.5 -53.9
562.0 -36.4
660.4 -140.8
488.2 37.4
324.1 201.5
324.1 201.5
443.0 82.6
463.2 62.4
-------
-------
SECTION 6
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The primary purpose of this work assignment is to provide model evalua-
tion statistics for selected rural models. TRC has been careful to present
the model performance results, and information describing how these results
were obtained, without drawing inferences or making judgements concerning
the performance of any individual model or of the models as a group. The
general performance characteristics of the entire group of models have been
discussed in Section 5. The implications of this general performance, or
the relative performance of any specific model, for regulatory applications
are not discussed here. The conclusions and recommendations from this work
assignment are confined to procedural issues and model evaluation methods,
rather than the performance of rural dispersion models.
One conclusion is apparent from even a cursory inspection of the append-
ix tables. The volume of model performance statistics which was generated
in this study is excessive. The amount of effort required to analyze fully
the information contained in these tables is prohibitive. After a limited
review, it is also apparent that many of the statistics are relatively un-
informative, repetitious, and redundant. It is not very productive to
demonstrate, eight tiroes over, many of the general performance characteris-
tics noted in Section 5. In an effort to follow the AMS workshop recom-
mendations as closely as possible, TRC and EPA elected to implement the full
list of performance measures for all the data sets and subsets specified. A
62
-------
thorough review of this final report is warranted, with the goal of setting
priorities and evaluating the usefulness of various measures, in order to
provide greater flexibility and better focus for future model evaluation
exercises. With that objective in mind, it would be valuable to obtain the
reactions of workshop participants at Woods Hole to this report.
A related item concerns the display of model performance results. The
current statistical system (SPSS) is relatively inflexible for data presen-
tation. Considerable improvement could be made in the tables of evaluation
statistics by redefining several performance measures to facilitate compar-
isons and to make the results more comprehensible to the technical com-
munity. The objective of implementing literally the workshop recommenda-
tions led to the relatively unimaginative data formats. Greater attention
should be devoted to planning for data display, including graphics, when
future model evaluation exercises are undertaken.
Several specific technical issues relating to rural model evaluation
require further attention. Two practical issues involve the definition (or
estimation) of background concentration levels and the application of
threshold cutoff values. The method selected for estimating background con-
centrations may have a significant effect upon model evaluation statistics.
For a data set such as that from Clifty Creek, it is necessary to account
for background since sources other than the Clifty Creek plant can signifi-
cantly impact the monitoring stations. The AMS workshop report provides no
clear guidance concerning adjustment of measured concentration for back-
ground. The method selected for this study has two virtues: it is simple
to implement and it derives from regulatory guidance. However, the accuracy
of the method has not been established.
63
-------
The use of threshold cutoff values to eliminate the large number of
near-zero observed and predicted concentration values from a model evalua-
tion data base has strong practical justification. Unfortunately, it may
also have some unforeseen consequences, particularly for statistics which
are supposed to represent "all concentration values." The effects of using
a threshold cutoff on correlation coefficients, frequency distribution com-
parisons, and measures of serial correlation are difficult to judge in the
absence of some experimentation.
TRC recommends an investigation of the effects on model performance sta-
tistics of using different methods for estimating background concentrations
and different threshold cutoff values (or no threshold).
As a final conclusion, TRC wishes to emphasize the importance of quality
control and error-checking procedures to the successful implementation of a
comparative model evaluation. This work assignment required the modifica-
tion of eight air quality models developed by eight separate organizations.
The quality and thoroughness of model documentation varied considerably, and
the modifications were specific to each model. It is very difficult (but
very important) to avoid inadvertent changes to a model's computation scheme
when significant input/output modifications are introduced. TRC employed
verification procedures which served as a simple check against inadvertent
model changes. Similarly, TRC checked the analysis system at various points
to confirm that background adjustments, averaging, screening for thresholds,
and data sorting and ranking were implemented properly. In future studies
of this kind, more explicit and more formal quality control measures should
be considered to ensure that the models and the analysis system are
operating as intended.
64
-------
REFERENCES
1. Fox, D. G., 1981. Judging Air Quality Model Performance (A Summary of
the AMS Workshop on Dispersion Model Performance, Woods Hole/ Mass.,
8-11 September 1980). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 62, 599-609.
2. Mills, M.T., 1979. Data Base for the Evaluation of Short Range
Dispersion Models. R-001-EPA-79, Teknekron, Inc., Berkeley, CA.
3. Nickola, P. W., 1977. The Hanford 67-Series: A Volume of Atmospheric
Field Diffusion Measurements. PNL-2433, UC-11, Battelle Pacific North-
west Laboratories, Richland, WA.
4. United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. User's Manual for
Single Source (CRSTER) Model. EPA-450/2-77-013, Monitoring and Data
Analysis Division, Research Triangle Park, NC.
5. Snedecor, G. W. and W. G. Cochran, 1967. Statistical Methods, 6th Edi-
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6. Hollander, M. and R. A. Wolfe, 1973. Nonparametric Statistical
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7. Hirtzel, C. S. and J. E. Quon, 1981. Estimating Precision of Auto-
correlated Air Quality Measurements. Summary of Proceedings Environ-
metrics 81, 200-201.
8. Wackter, D.J. and D.M. Bonitata, 1982. Description of Archive Structure
to Accommodate Data Bases Appropriate for Model Evaluations.
EPA-68-02-354-WA4, TRC 1671-R80, TRC Environmental Consultants, Inc., E.
Hartford, CT.
9. United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1978. Guideline on Air
Quality Models. EPA-450/2-78-027, OAQPS, Research Triangle Park, NC.
10. SPSS, 1975. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, Second
Edition. N. H. Nie, ed. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York, NY.
11. SPSS, 1981. SPSS Update 7-9: New Procedures and Facilities for
Releases 7-9. C. H. Hull and N. H. Nie, series editors. McGraw-Hill
Book Company, New York, NY.
65
-------
APPENDIX A
Statistics for 25 Highest Values
-------
Appendix A; Statistics for 25 Highest Values
In the tables which follow, model performance statistics are presented
which compare the 25 highest observed and 25 highest predicted concentration
values, unpaired in time or location. Each table contains the results for
one model, one calendar year of Clifty Creek data (1975 or 1976) and one
averaging time (1, 3, or 24 hours). In each table, results are presented
for the entire data set (all stations/all events) and for subsets
representing either a single monitoring station or particular meteorological
conditions. Subsets based on meteorology were employed only for 1-hour and
3-hour averaging times. The wina speed or stability value used to classify
a 3-hour period was the median of the three hourly values. In an effort to
mitigate statistical problems due to temporal or spatial correlation,
selection rules stipulated that only one value could be selected from a
given event, and that two consecutive values from the same station could not
be used. The statistical properties of samples selected in this manner are
not known; hopefully, potentially negative consequences are minimal since
these selection rules generally eliminated only about 20 percent of the
highest values.
The first two columns of results in Table A are simply the average of
the 25 highest observed values and the average of the 25 highest predicted
values for each data set. The first performance measure (third column) is
the difference between these averages. A positive value implies model
underprediction. In parentheses following the calculated value is the 95
percent confidence interval, determined by using the two-sample Student's t
test.
Tne second performance measure is the difference between the medians
(13th highest values) of the observed and predicted 25 highest values. The
A-2
-------
95 percent confidence interval (in parentheses) is determined using the
non-parametric Mann-Whitney test.
Tne third performance measure is the variance comparison. The variance
of the 25 highest observed values was divided by the variance of the pre-
dicted values. The variance ratio is presented, together with the 95 per-
cent confidence interval (in parentheses) determined using an F test.
The final performance measure in Table A is the frequency distribution
comparison. The cumulative distribution function f(C) represents the frac-
tion of the data set (in this case, the fraction of 25 data points) witn
concentration values less than or equal to C. The value presented in this
column is the largest difference between the observed and predicted distri-
bution functions (for the same concentration value) obtained when the two
functions are compared for all concentration values.
A positive fractional difference implies model overprediction. At the
concentration value where the maximum difference occurs, the fraction of
observed values less than or equal to that concentration value is larger
than the fraction of predicted values. Conversely, the fraction of observed
values higher than that concentration value is smaller than the fraction o£
predicted values.
The value given in parentheses is the maximum ditterence which is signi-
ficantly different from zero, at a 95 percent confidence level, as given by
the Kolmogorov-brairnov (K-S) test. This confidence interval is a function
of the number of cases. The value is, therefore, the same (.385) for all
data sets in Table A, since the number of cases is always 25.
A-3
-------
A. COMPAK1SON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED *MJ PhtDlCUO
b02 CUNCtNTKAlION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE UN LOCATION)
CLIFIY
HODfcLI tiPlER
AVERAGING 11KEJ J HUUK
AVERAGE
DATA SE1S OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M«3)
AVERAGE
PKEOICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PHED)
(UG/M*»3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(CUS-PREU)
(l/G/K»*3)
•
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OHS/PHED)
FREQUENCY
OISTR1BLTI0N
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPREO)
(FRACTION)
ALL SlATlONS/ALL
fcVEMS (A-4A) 790.0
1077.7
-2B6.9 (-s p/atc
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS Aid
CLASS C
CLASS U
CLASS t R F
506.9
535.0
500.1
550.0
225.9
512.6
652.5
652.0
469.9
481.3
678.9
586.6
396.0
595.0
845.0
935.1
667.6
315.3
451. 6
862.7
1021.3
557.9
963.0
926.6
556.5
341.6
-66.1
-310.0
-355.0
-117.8
-89, U
60.6
-210.2
-369.3
-66.0
-481.7
-247.9
26.1
56.2
(-146.5,
(-397.5,
(-480.2,
(-193.4,
(-251.5,
( -56.2,
(-303.4,
(-492.2,
(-130.9,
(-574.7,
(-367,0,
( -19,0,
( -49,2,
-25.7)
-222.5)
-229.6)
-42.2)
72.7)
177.8)
•117.0)
-246.4)
•5.1)
•386.7)
•128.8)
75.2)
161.6)
-70.
•271.
-366.
-66.
ei.
45.
-239.1
•403.5
•105.6
-436.4
-317.4
4.6
-7.1
(•117.1,
(-353.8,
(-466.9,
(•172.9,
( -««. 1,
( -36.4,
(-292.9,
(•455.3,
(•139.1,
(•527.3,
(•360.2,
( -19.4,
( -56.5,
-29.7)
-220.8)
-298.7)
-38.9)
124.4)
118.8)
-163.9)
-305.3)
-22.4)
-389.2)
•197.6)
72.5)
41.8)
0.65
0.33
2.41
o.ef
0.05
1.75
1,98
1.49
2.20
0.37 1
2.27 1
0.64 (
12.46 (
( 0.33,
( 0.17,
( 1.22,
( 0.45,
( 0.02,
( 0.88,
[ 1.00,
[ 0.75,
[ 1.11,
0.16,
1.14,
0.42,
6.29,
1.26)
0.65)
4.76)
1.76)
0.09)
3.46)
3.94)
2.96)
4.37)
0.73)
4.50)
1.66)
24.75)
0.48
0.76
0.84
0.52
•0.56
-0.32
0.76
0.66
0.46
0.96
0.76
•0.36
0.40
.365)
.365)
,385)
.365)
.365)
.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TAbLE A. COMHAKISON OF 2b HIGHhST ObSEHvED AKD PREDICTED
S02 Cl'NCtNIHAT ION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN lift ON LOCATION)
CLIFTY ChEtK (1975)
MODELt HPTEH
AVEHAlilNG lift: 3 hOUKS
AVEKAGE
IJAIA btTS OttSEKVED
VALUE
(UG/M«3)
AVfKAGE
PHED1CTEI)
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
UIFFERENCE
OF AVEkAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
OlFFtHENCE
OF NEOIAISS
(OtoS-PREO)
(UG/«**3)
VARIANCE
COHPAKISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
OISTfllBLTION
COKPA&ISON
(FOBS-FFHEO)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATICN9/ALL
EVMJTS (A-<(A)
476.3
520.0
-«3.7 ( -99.5, 12.1)
-56.7 ( -93.2,
2.6)
1.19 ( 0.60, 2.36)
0.28 (.365)
a. at RATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION t
3. II Y METEOULLOG1CAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. MIND SPEED
<2.b f/SEC
2.5 TO 5 */SEC
>5 M/SEC
tf. STAUILITV GHOUH
CLASS ABB
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS k I f
322.6
286.6
315.9
313.3
125.6
257.9
316.2
410.5
308.1
226.3
359.0
385.5
196.9
310.4
393.2
403.4
331.0
99.9
163.2
344.7
474, 1
316.9
411.7
441.1
346.3
152.2
12.2
-106.6
-67.5
-17.7
25.7
94.7
-28.5
-63.6
•6.6
-183.4
-82.1
37.2
44.7
( -27.4,
(-174.1,
(-159.3,
( -70.7,
( -40.2,
( 33.2,
( -97.4,
(-121.3,
( -65.0,
(-255.0,
(-147.3,
( -3.6,
( -10.6,
51.8)
-39.1)
-15.7)
35.3)
91.6)
156.2)
40.4)
-5.9)
47.4)
-111.6)
-16.9)
78.0)
100.0)
4.4
-103.8
-116.2
-14.8
82.9
51.4
-5.5
-51.1
-60.1
-201.7
-72.6
22.6
36.9
( -31.2,
(-141.3,
(-151.4,
( -52.6,
( 45.3,
( 16.2,
( -63.0,
(-111.7,
( -75.1,
(-251.6,
(-126.1,
( -7.7,
( 1.0,
43.0)
-31.0)
-60.1)
26.3)
100.6)
130.0)
32.3)
-19.5)
16.3)
-129.6)
-40.1)
64.6)
58.3)
1.36 1
0.34 I
2.14 1
0.97 1
0.08 1
1.89 1
0.52 1
1.20 1
2.54 1
1.09 I
1.21 1
3.00 <
2.37
[ 0.69,
: o.i7,
; i.o8.
I 0.49,
: 0.04,
: 0.95,
[ 0.26,
[ 0.60,
t 1.28,
I 0.55,
[ 0.61,
( 1.51,
( 1.20,
2.70)
0.67)
4.24)
1.93)
0.17)
3.74)
1.04)
2.38)
5.04)
2.17)
2.41)
5.95)
4.71)
•0.16
0.48
0.60
0.28
-0.64
-0.52
-0.28
0.44
0.32
0.80
0.60
-0.28
-O.«0
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OP 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TINE Oil LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELI MPTER AVERAGING TIMEi 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Data Sets
Average Observed
Value
Co
I. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
126.
7
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Averagea
Cf r*
P ° iP
(M9/«* ) (M9/»3)
118.4
8.3
(+16.9)
Bias
Difference
of Medians
"O ~ p
(M9/»3)
5.1 (-10.4, 20.6)
Variance
Comparison
1.55 (0.78,
3.08)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
[f(C0) - MCp)) max
(fraction)
-0.20
(.385)
2. By station/all
events (A
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
97.
65.
78.
84.
34.
57.
4
4
1
5
9
5
61.7
68.0
75.1
78.8
15.8
28.4
35.6
-2.6
3.0
5.7
19.1
29.1
(+17.6)
(+17.6)
(+19.9)
(+15.4)
(+11.2)
(+14.7)
39.4 (23.5, 46.3)
-0.2 (-13.5, 11.7)
0.7 (-12.7, 13.5)
21.4 (-0.6. 27.7)
26.8 (21.6, 29.4)
19.6 (14.6, 35.3)
1.2B (0.64,
0.72 (0.36,
1.62 (0.81,
0.32 (0.16,
0.15 (0.08.
2.06 (1.04,
2.53)
1.43)
3.21)
0.63)
0.30)
4.09)
-0.72
-0.24
-0.20
-0.40
-0.84
-0.72
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON Of 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO? CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL! MPTER
AVERAGING TIME I t HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/K**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M»»3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PRED)
(U6/P**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBLTIOK
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
i. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVEN1S (A-4A)
7TI.6
1064.8
•313.0 (-369.3, -256.7)
•326.7 (-366.6,
0.60 ( 0.30, t.20)
0.96 (.385)
2, BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION !
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
9T4TION e
STA110N 6
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. WIND SPEED
<2.5 f/SEC
2.5 TO 5 K/SFC
>5 f/StC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A * B
CLASS C
CLAS3 (I
CLASS E ft f
5«1.7
658.9
450.2
546.7
321.3
496.8
669.0
667,5
458.5
541.4
631.4
672.4
343.5
563.0
781.9
1028.7
690.3
293.2
532.5
953.5
952.3
600.4
1003.4
939.4
517.5
371.9
18.7
-123.0
-576.5
-143.6
28.1
-35.7
-264.5
-284.8
•141.9
-462.0
-306.0
154.9
-28.4
( -41.6,
(-201.0,
(-643.0,
(-211.8,
(-124.5,
(-113.9,
(-365.9,
(-350.3,
(-237.5,
(-546.2,
(-381.7,
( 113.9,
( -80.9,
79.0)
-05.0)
-514.0)
•75.4)
160.7)
12.5)
-203.1)
-219.3)
-46.3)
-375.6)
-234.3)
195.9)
24.1)
14.9
-119.5
-620.6
-76.7
76.7
-39.1
-243.2
-276.4
-126.8
•493.5
-330.9
158.9
-37.0
-23.0,
-197.8,
•676.0,
-195.7,
23.3,
-62.2,
(-347.2,
(-336.8,
(-152.1,
(-562.3,
(-385.5,
( 102.5,
( -75.8,
67.4)
-29.1)
•506.9)
-61.6)
179.2)
«9.2)
-198.3)
•225.3)
•82.7)
•376.2)
•244.8)
177.6)
9.2)
0.67 I
1.24 1
0.75 1
0.44
0.22
0.33
0.78
0.68
0.36
0.74
1.83
5.22
t.09
0.14,
0.62,
0.36,
0.22,
[ 0.11,
[ 0.17,
( 0.39,
( 0.34,
( 0.18,
( 0.38,
( 0.92,
( 2.63,
( 0.55,
1.72)
2.46)
1.48)
0.67)
0.45)
0.66)
1.55)
1.34)
0.71)
1.48)
3.62)
10.36)
?. 15)
-0.28
0.44
0.96
0.56
-0.56
-0.24
0.80
0.84
0.76
0.92
0.80
-0.84
0.28
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE *. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AN'U PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIPE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL I MPTER
AVERAGING IIKEI 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/W*»3)
DIFFERENCE
OF KEDIAN3
(OB3-PREO)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OB3/PREO)
FREQUENCY
OISTRIBUK
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPREt
(FRACTION)
1. ALL SIA1ICNS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
480.9
535.1
-54.2 (-105.1,
-3.0)
-63.6 ( -84.4,
•0.3)
0.54 ( 0.27, 1.07)
0.36 (.3*5
00
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-«B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
3IATION 5
STATION 6
3. BY HE1EORULOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A, KIND SPEED
<2.5 MSEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E 8 F
372.7
373.6
252.6
360.2
177.1
287.8
338.6
445.5
316.0
263.6
364.3
443.1
217.9
323.2
317.5
444,3
336.2
114,6
209,6
377.1
507.1
310.0
426.6
453.7
336.0
170,8
49.5
56.1
-191.5
24.0
62.5
78.0
-38.5
-61.6
6.0
-163.0
-89.4
107.1
47.1
2.4,
1.5,
-261,9,
-32.0,
-10.2,
29.1,
( -87.9,
(-120.5,
( -46.0,
(-225.0,
(-151.1,
( 69.0,
C -4.8,
96.6)
110.7)
•121.1)
80.0)
135.2)
126.9)
10.9)
-2.7)
58.0)
-101.0)
-27.7)
145.2)
99.0)
51.9
75.4
-169.2
8.6
89.1
107.9
-15.4
•109.7
2.7
-154.1
-65.4
108.1
64.4
( 5.1,
( 10.0,
(-240.2,
(-140.6,
( 51.0,
( 40.6,
( -88.2,
(-112.3,
( -42.3,
(-210.0,
(-138.5,
( 74.2,
( 24.0,
89.5)
102.7)
-105.3)
46.6)
126.6)
142.6)
8.4)
f .8)
39.7)
-99.4)
-26.5)
132.2)
87.5)
0.78
0.87
0.27
1.24
0.33
0.24
0.58
0.40
1.60
0.43
0.64
1.66
0.73
f 0.39,
( 0.44,
( 0,14,
( 0.63,
( U.ifc,
( 0.12,
( 0.29,
( 0.20,
( 0.80,
( 0.21,
( 0.32,
( 0.8«,
( 0.37,
1.54)
1.72)
0.55)
2.46)
0.65)
0.47)
1.15)
0.79)
3.17)
0.84)
1.27)
3.30)
1.4fl)
-0.48
-0.40
0.84
-0.24
-0.66
-0.60
0.28
0.36
0.24
0.60
0.46
-0,68
-0.52
(.385
(.385
(.385
(.385
(.385
(.385
(.385
(.385
(.365
(.385!
(.385)
(.385)
(.3851
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CRBEK (1976)
MODELt MPTER AVERAGING TIMEi 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Data Sets
•
Average Observed
Value
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
125
.3
Average Predicted Difference
Value of Averages
Cp C0 - Cp
(Mg/«" ) (wg/«3)
126.7
-1.4
(±9.1)
Bias
Difference
of Medians
o — P
5.6 (-7.6. 13.5)
Variance
Comparison
v/v
2.99 (1.51,
5.92)
frequency Distribution
Comparison
U(C0) - t(Cp) I >ax
(fraction)
0.20
(.385)
2. By station/all
events (A
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
96
84
64
107
40
71
.4
.8
.3
.7
.1
.8
75.6
57.4
92.1
91.8
15.7
28.0
20.8
27.4
-27.8
15.8
24.4
43.8
(±14.2)
(+12.1)
(+21.3)
(±15.4)
(+11.8)
(+10.0)
28.9 (12.6, 37.1)
25.1 (17.9, 39.4)
-32.8 (-38.1, -3.5)
20.2 (4.0, 29.0)
28.3 (19.9, 32.4)
47.6 (34.4, 53.5)
0.42 (0.21,
0.60 (0.30,
0.30 (0.15,
1.08 (0.55,
0.67 (0.34,
1.55 (0.78,
0.83)
1.19)
0.59)
2.14)
1.33)
3.07)
0.64
0.64
0.52
0.44
0.80
O.B4
1-385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
-------
1ABLE ». COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL! MPSDM
AVERAGING TIME! 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SEIS UBSENVEO
VALUE
(UG/K»*3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M*»3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(083-PRED)
(U6/**»3)
DIFFERENCE
OF KEOIAN3
(083-PHED)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PREO)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FGBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
i. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) 790.8
1214.0
-423.6 (-643.5. -203.7)
-337.a (-431.2, -211.9)
0.19 ( 0.12, 0.47)
0.84 (.385)
M
O
2. BY S1ATION/ALL
EVEN1S (A-4B)
STATJON I
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
s. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. WIND SPEED
<2.5 N/SEC
2,5 TO 5 f/SEC
>5 */SEC
B. SlAlHLlTV GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS E * F
508.9
535.0
580.0
550.0
225.9
512.6
653.5
652.0
489.9
481.3
678.9
586.6
398,0
516.0
735.2
991.0
586.0
563.6
468.6
1170.6
770.0
322.9
1033.7
1014,7
342,7
36.2
-7.1
-200.2
-411.0
-38.0
-337.7
44.0
-517.1
-118.0
167.0
-552.4
•335.8
243.9
361.8
-75.7
-309.7
-597.5
-128.6
-566,1
-67.9
(-737.5,
(-232.6,
( lit. 8,
(-767.9,
(-500.0,
( 209.1.
( 257.8,
6J.5)
•90.7)
-224.5)
52.6)
-109.3)
155.9)
-296.7)
-3.4)
222.2)
-336.9)
•171.6)
278.7)
465.8)
12.0
-137.4
-348.5
-4.6
-208.0
-3.8
-329.2
-96.3
123.9
-393.7
-310.3
220.1
300.4
( -37.4,
-202.1,
-463.9,
-96.0,
-351.7,
-58.0,
(-493.8,
(-191.1,
( 84.1,
(-489.0,
(-407.2,
( 197.8,
( 242.3,
56.4)
-94.6)
-843.0)
60.3)
-88.9)
86.5)
-286,5)
-83.6)
192.6)
-332.1)
-179.6)
272.1)
340.5)
0.44
0.19
0.47
0.49
0.02
2.27
0.14
2.21
12.84
0.0«
0.58
5.41
21.11
( 0.22,
( 0.09,
( 0.24,
( 0.25,
( 0.01,
( 1.15,
( 0.07,
( 1.11,
( 6.17,
( 0.03,
( 0.29,
( 2.73,
( 1 0.64,
0.87)
0.37)
0.93)
0.97)
0.01)
4.51)
0.27)
a .39)
25.08)
0.11)
1.14)
10.73)
« J .86)
-0.24
0.64
0.72
0.16
0.64
-0.24
0.92
0.64
-0.76
0.92
0.64
-1.00
-1.00
f.1«5)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PKE01CTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OH LOCATION)
CL1FTY CREt* (1975)
MODELi
AVERAGING
3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DA1A ShIS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M«*3)
AVERAGE
PHEOICTED
VALUE
(UG/M«*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/N«*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(0«S-PR£0)
(UG/W**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPREO)
(FRACTION)
i. ALL STAIICNS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) 476,3 559.6
-*3.3 (-191.3,
20.7)
-33.1 ( -84.0,
II.fc)
0.17 ( 0.09, 0.34)
0.20 (.385)
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4H)
STATION I
STATION 2
STATION 3
STAIlQN (|
STATION 5
STATION 6
3. BY MtTEOhCLOGICAL
CONOTTTON (A-5)
A. KINO SPEED
<2.5 f/SEC
2.5 TO 5 h/SEC
>5 H/SEC
8. STAH1L1IY GMOUP
CLASS A « H
CLASS C
CLASS U
CLASS fc * F
322.6
266.6
315.9
313.3
125.6
257.9
316.2
410.5
306.1
226.3
359.0
385.5
196.9
243.8
300.9
471.9
261.6
234.3
167.0
497.9
397,9
190. Z
363.2
511. 2
253.7
32.8
78.8
-14.3
-156.0
51,7
-108.7
70.9
-181.7
12.6
113.9
-134.9
-152.2
131.8
164.1
( 41.6,
( -63,3,
(-244.0,
( 3.4,
(-233.4,
( 13.7,
(-300.6,
( -40.9,
( 62.8,
(-198.1,
(-271.6,
( 89.2,
( 115.6,
115.8)
34.7)
-68.0)
100.0)
16.0)
128.1)
-62.6)
66.1)
165.1)
-71.7)
-32.6)
174.4)
2)2.6)
66.3
-17.1
-167.0
54.1
-62.9
43.2
-129.5
26.9
64.8
-145.8
-99.6
127.8
130.7
( 45.3,
( -45.1,
(-206.6,
( 6.5,
(-114. 7,
( 15.1,
(-169.6,
( -33.1,
( 49.4,
(-197.5,
(-158.2,
( ea.5,
( 104.1,
99.5)
20.1)
-92.6)
69. 1)
16.7)
83.2)
-55.9)
49.5)
123.8)
-96.8)
-37.9)
U4. fc)
156.8)
1.94
0.9C
0.83
1.46
0.02
3.24
0.13
1.73
7.14
2.05
0.20
2.12
21. (.2
( 0.98,
( 0.46,
( 0.42,
( 0.74,
( 0.01,
( 1.63,
( 0.07,
( 0.87,
( 3.60,
( 1.03,
( 0.10,
( 1.07,
(10.90,
3.84)
1.79)
1.65)
2.90)
0.04}
6.43)
0.26)
3.43)
14.16)
«.06)
0.39)
4.20)
12.90)
-0.64
-0.80
0.60
-0.36
0.40
•0.44
0.56
-0.16
-0.64
0.80
0.56
-U.84
-1 .00
(.365)
(.365)
(.365)
(.365)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
1.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OK 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
BO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFFY CREEK (1975)
MODELi MPSDH AVERAGING TIHEl 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Data Sets
Average Observed
Value
Co
(M9/-1 )
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
126.
7
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Averages
Cp C0 - Cp
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN W*t OH LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL I MPSDM
AVERAGING
i HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M»3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF KEOIANS
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/M*«3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBSXPRCO)
FREOL'ENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
!. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) 771.6 1005.0
-233.2 (-336.2, -140.2)
-139.T (-304.7, -112.0)
0.16 ( 0,05, 0.32)
0.66 (.365)
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-OB)
STATION |
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
3. BY METEflHCLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. HIND SPEED
<2.5 P/SEC
2,5 1C 5 H/SEC
>5 H/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS .ERF
581.7
658.9
450.2
546.7
321.3
496.8
668.9
667.5
458.5
541.4
631.4
672.4
343.5
558.6
646.5
660.9
628.9
608.9
504.3
1000.6
691.9
320.9
870.7
692.9
365.5
19.9
23.1
12.4
-410.7
-62.2
-287.6
-7.5
-331.7
-24.4
137.6
-329.3
-261.5
306.9
323.6
( -84.6,
( -57.9,
(•507.2,
(-167.0,
(-423.5,
( -70.1,
(-435.3,
( -79.7,
( 86.3,
(-426.9,
(-360.4,
( 251.1,
( 281.6,
130.8)
82.7)
•314.2)
2.6)
-151.7)
5S.1)
-228.1)
30.9)
188.9)
-231.7)
-162.6)
362.7)
365.6)
115.0
28,3
•359.1
-2B.9
-338.9
-4.0
-247.7
-45.8
89.9
-288.5
-230.3
322.9
299.8
15.7,
•68.9,
•407.0,
•135.3,
-435.1,
•35.3,
(-396.8,
( -89.9,
( 73.0,
(-353.7,
(-311.8,
( 273.7,
( 281.7,
146.4)
91.0)
•325.3)
19,5)
•105.3)
43.2)
-209.2)
23.7)
128.7)
-256.1)
•166.6)
341.3)
327.3)
0.17 (
2.14 I
0.24 1
0.25 1
0.30 (
0.62 1
0.38
1.30
15.36
0.50
0.56
0.61
4.56
0.09,
1.08,
. 0.12,
n.13,
0.15,
0.31,
t 0.19,
[ 0.66,
[ 7.75,
( 0.25,
( 0.28,
( 0.41,
( 2.30,
0.34)
4.24)
0.47)
0.49)
0.60)
1.24)
0.75)
2.58)
30.51)
0.99)
1.11)
1.62)
9.05)
-0.56
-0.24
0.96
0.26
0.52
-0.16
0.76
0.2«
-0.92
0.66
0.76
-0.92
-1 .00
(.385)
(.365)
( ,?85)
(.365)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
-------
TABLE *i COMPARISON UF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE ON LOCATION)
CLIFTY CHEEK (1976)
MODEL I KPSOM
AVERAGING TIPEI 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M*«3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/N**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF ("EUIANS
(OBS-PREU)
(UG/K**3)
•
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DI3TR1BUTIC
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPREO
(FRACTION)
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) 460.9
526.3
-45.4 (-103.6, 12.8)
-48.1 ( -75.4,
13.7)
0.38 ( 0.19, 0.75)
0.28 (.365
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A>4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
3. UY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. WIND SPEED
<2.5 IK/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/3EC
>5 K/3EC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS E ft F
372.7
373.6
252.8
360.2
177.1
287.8
338.6
445.5
316.0
263.6
364.3
443.1
217.9
259.6
276.3
462.6
310.8
232.9
197.8
458.9
419.9
186.6
429.5
437.4
255.2
32.1
113.1
97.3
-209.8
49.4
•55.8
90.0
•120.3
25.6
129.4
-165.7
-73.1
187.9
185.8
71.9,
47.0,
-283.0,
-15.0,
•119.0,
56.2,
(-182.8,
( -29.8,
( 84.4,
(-236.7,
(-128.5,
( 153.9,
( 149.0,
154.3)
147.6)
•136.6)
113.8)
7.4)
123.8)
-57.8)
81.0)
174.4)
•92.7)
-17.7)
221.9)
222.6)
109.5
126.6
•207.3
29.2
-77.1
106.4
-59.2
3.7
116.0
-165.1
-55.7
171.6
182.4
( 79.1,
( 53.2,
(-269.4,
( 10.8,
(•li^.2,
( 62.5,
(-136.5,
( "18,5,
( 80.7,
(-214.8,
(•122.1,
( 146.9,
( 143.6,
142.6)
145.3)
•128.1)
88.6)
18.5)
124.9)
•57.6)
80.7)
135.2)
-63.3)
-24.7)
203.5)
201.5)
1.33
1.21
0.25
0.72
0.47
0.65
0.30
0.46
4.66
0.26
0.94 (
3.77
5.43 (
( 0.67,
( 0.61,
( 0.13,
( 0.36,
( 0.24,
( 0.33,
[ 0.15,
[ 0.24,
[ ?.45,
0.14,
0.47,
1.90,
2.74,
2.64)
2.41)
0.50)
1.43)
0.94)
1.28)
0.60)
0.94)
9.65)
0.55)
1.86)
7.49)
10.78)
-0.76
• 0.64
0.80
-0.48
0.32
-0.64
0.56
-0.40
-0.84
0.60
0.48
-0.96
-0.96
(.385!
(.385;
(.385!
(.385]
(.385)
(.3853
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON Of 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUE? (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION}
CLim CREEK (1976)
MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
en
* Performance Measures
Data Sets
Average Observed
Value
(M9/V )
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
125
.3
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_A verges
Cp - r
P o p
102.1
23.3
(+13.2)
Bias
Difference
of Medians
"O ** P
22.5 (16.5, 36.1)
Variance
Comparison
0.59
(0.30,
1.18)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(f(C0) - t(Cj,)| »ax
(traction)
-0.72
(-3B5)
2. By station/all
events (A
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
96
84
64
107
40
71
.4
.8
.3
.7
.1
.8
56.4
48.2
84.0
71.5
32.9
31.6
40.0
36.6
-19.7
36.2
7.2
40.2
(+11.0)
(+9.7)
(+17.8)
(+14.1)
(+11.6)
(+9.7)
40.3 (30.1, 48.8)
34.0 (27.1, 44.4)
-18.5 (-28.0, -39.7)
39.1 (21.0, 47.8)
6.1 (-1.9, 17.5)
42.8 (29.8, 48.6)
1.02
1.62
0.52
1.92
0.75
2.18
(0.51,
(0.82,
(0.26,
(0.97,
(0.38,
(1.10,
2.02)
3.22)
1.03)
3.81)
1.49)
4.31)
-0.76
-0.84
0.48
-0.64
-0.32
-0.88
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
802 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN T1HE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTV CREEK (1975)
MODEL! COMPTER
AVERAGING TIKEI i HOUR
AVERAGE
IJAfA StTS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/K**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M*«3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(U6/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(08S-PREO)
(UG/M«»3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PKEO)
FREfllENCY
DISTRIBUTE
COMPARISON
(F08S-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-U.A)
790.8
1130.4
-339.6 (-454.8, -224.4)
-361.5 (-126.9, -310.0)
2.24 (
0.88 (.385)
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVfcNTS (A«4B)
STATION I
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION fl
> STATION' 5
^ STATION 6
3. BV METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. WIND SPEED
<2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/3EC
>5 M/SEC
0. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft H
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E 8 F
508.9
535.0
580.0
550.0
225.9
512.6
653.5
652.0
489.9
481.3
678.9
566.6
398.0
681.0
868.6
1008.8
691.8
492.2
488.0
922.0
1072.6
619. a
1003.4
989.9
619.4
605.9
•172.1
-333.6
-428.8
•141.8
-266.3
24.6
•268.5
•420.6
-129.5
-522.1
-311.0
-32.8
-207.9
(•228.3,
(-418.0,
(-554.8,
(-214.6,
(•414.2,
( -90.7,
(-359.4,
(•543,3,
(-189,2,
(-616.0,
(•428.8,
( -75.4,
(•315,9,
•115.9)
•249.2)
-302.8)
•68.8)
•118.4)
139,9)
•177.6)
•297.9)
-69.8)
•428.2)
-193.2)
9.8)
-99.9)
-214.3
•309.6
-509.6
•109.6
•145.7
25.5
-278.8
-431.1
-157.7
-487.4
-352.3
-47.5
-262.8
(•247.4,
(-368.8,
(-558.1,
(-200.4,
(-243.8,
( -75.1,
(-342.9,
(-501.2,
(-202.5,
(-585.2,
(-412.0,
( -73.0,
(-309.0,
•115.0)
-253.3)
-374.2)
-69.1)
•67.5)
77.2)
-232.1)
•353.1)
-92.7)
-422.4)
-271.6)
-1.8)
•204.2)
0.63
0.36
2.31
1.02
0.05 1
1.89 1
2.31
1.51
3.36
0.36
2.04
1.25
6.12
0.42,
0.18,
[ 1.16,
0.52,
0.03,
0.95,
1.17,
[ 0.76,
[ 1.69,
( 0.18,
( 1.23,
( 0.63,
( 3.09,
1.65)
0.72)
4.58)
2.03)
0.11)
3.76)
«.59)
2.99)
6.67)
0.71)
fl.84)
2.«7)
12.15)
0.80
0.88
0.92
0.64
0.56
-0.20
o.ea
0.92
0.68
0.96
0.88
0.48
0.80-
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
sos CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OH LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL" COMPTER
AVERAGING UMEI 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
OAT* SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/Mt*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OB3-PREO)
(U6/P**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OPS/PREO)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FFHED)
(FRACTION)
L 31A1IONS/ALL
ENTS (A-4A)
a/6.3
571.9
•95.6 (-153.0» -38.2)
•132.3 (.153.1;
•13,2)
1.06 ( 0.53, 2.10)
0.52 (.385)
2. B. STATION/ALL
EViNTS (A-4H)
.S, AT ION 1
b.ATION 2
S.MION 3
Si.'TIUK 4
S T10N 5
SI TION 6
3. BY 1EOHOLOGICAL
CON. IT1CN (A-5)
A. HIND SPEED
<2.5 K/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
5 K/SEC
B. TAblLITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
LLASS 0
CLASS E « F
322.6
286.6
315.9
313.3
125.6
257.9
316.2
410.5
306.1
226.3
359.0
365.5
196.9
349.7
426.2
477.5
379.3
174.6
182.7
396.4
524.7
373.2
437.7
487.4
407.9
263.5
-27.1
-14J.6
-161.6
-66.0
•49.0
75.2
-80.2
-1 14.2
-65.1
•209.4
-128.4
-22.4
-66.6
( -69.7,
(-203.4,
(•237.8,
(-115.8,
(•111.6,
( 14.3,
(-147.8,
(-173.6,
(-121.2,
(-262.1,
(-197.8,
( -63.1,
(-126.8,
15.5)
•79.8)
-65.4)
-16.2)
13.6)
136.1)
-12.6)
-54.8)
-9.0)
-136.7)
-59.0)
18.3)
-4.4)
-45.2
-1^2.9
-190.0
-47.2
-6.7
36.8
-67.7
-117.2
-124.2
-232.2
-119.3
-36.3
-62.3
( -66.1,
(-177.3,
(-222.4,
(-107.9,
( -30.4,
( 2.8,
(-107.9,
(-160.9,
(-132.3,
(-270.8,
(-170.3,
( -68.2,
(-113.0,
,fc..,)
•81.0)
-124.3)
•24.8)
22.6)
111.1)
•2fc.6)
•68.5)
-44.3)
•148.8)
-75.3)
4.0)
-28.8)
0.99 1
0.43 1
1.53 (
1.27 (
0.09 1
2.00 1
0.55 1
1.06 1
2.71 I
1.03 i
0.94 i
3.06
1.26
I 0.50,
: 0.21,
; 0.77,
I 0.64,
: o.os,
: 1.01,
[ 0.28,
1 0.54,
t 1.36,
( 0.52,
( 0.47,
( i.sq,
( 0.63,
1.97)
0.85)
3.03)
2.53)
0.19)
3.97)
1.10)
2.11)
5.37)
2.0«)
1.87)
6.07)
2.49)
0.32
0.64
0.72
0.52
-0.20
-0.40
0.48
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.72
0.40
0.64
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.383)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OP 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFFY CREEK (1975)
MODELJ COMPTER AVERAGING TIHEs 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
1.
2.
H
00
Data Sets
Average Observed
Value
C0
(M9/m' )
All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
126.
7
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Average«
Cp C0 - Cp
(Vt/tf } (M9/«3)
147.0
-20.3
(+20.2)
Bias
Difference
of Medians
HQ "" Mp
(M9/«3J
-16.2 (-35.1, -3.9)
Variance
Comparison
So'/Sp'
0.75 (0.38,
1.49)
Frequency UistrtDution
Comparison
|f(C0) - f(Cp)| max
(fraction)
0.48
(.385)
By station/all
events (A
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
97.
65.
78.
84.
34.
57.
4
4
1
5
9
5
76.9
81.2
105.4
100.4
30.4
31.6
20.5
-15.8
-27.3
-15.9
4.5
25.9
(+19.4)
(+17.7)
(+22.0)
(+20.2)
(+12.9)
(+14.8)
27.2 (11.2, 35.4)
-21.5 (-30.2, -0.1)
-24.7 (-40.4, -14.6)
5.8 (-16.2, 11.0)
12.2 (6.6, 18.5)
17.4 (12.7, 29.9)
0.86 (0.43,
0.72 (0.36,
1.04 (0.52,
0.17 (0.08,
0.11 (0.06,
2.01 (1.01,
1.70)
1.42)
2.06)
0.33)
0.22)
3.98)
-0.52
0.36
0.52
0.2U
-0.60
-0.72
.385)
.JB5)
.385)
. 3«5|
.385)
.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
502 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TINE OH LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELS COMPTER
TIMES I HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/***3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3>
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/X*«3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
CFOBS-FFRED)
(FRACTION)
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-OA)
771.fl
1106.7
-370.9 (-
. 8, -322.0)
-368,0 (-021.0, -322.9)
0.75 ( 0.38, I.fl8)
t.OO (.365)
BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-OB)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 0
STATION 5
STATION t
BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. NINO SPEED
<2.5 */SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 M/SEC
». STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A « B
CLASS C
CLASS U
CLAS3 ERF
581,7
658.9
050.2
5«6.7
1?J « ?
096.8
668,9
667.5
058,5
501 .«
631.4
672.0
303.5
663.0
828.7
1 116.0
708.6
5?1,2
557.0
1022.3
1007,1
641.1
1053.0
1036.0
569.2
600,1
-81.7
-169.6
•665.8
-161.9
-201.9
-60.6
-353.0
-379,6
-1«2.6
-511.6
-005.0
103.2
•296.6
(-107.8,
(-208.0,
(-723,0,
(-227.0,
(-352.0,
(-133.1,
(-028.2.
(-005.6,
(-273.0,
(-593.0,
(-080.9,
( 63.0,
(-353.1,
-15.6)
-91.6)
-608.6)
-96.8)
-51.0)
11.9)
-278.6)
-313.6)
-92.2)
-030.2)
-329.1)
143.0)
-200.1)
-86.0
-162.3
-695.5
-106.2
-201.7
-52.5
-303.3
-008,8
-172.7
-588.5
-019.0
92.0
-311.0
(-118.7,
(-255,9,
(-724,6,
(-205.6,
(-297.0,
( -97.0,
(-028.2,
(-407,8,
(-193.9,
(-620.3,
(-487.0,
( 52.2,
(-330.3.
•215.7)
-83.0)
•626.0)
•82.6)
-15.8)
11.6)
•281.3)
•311.3)
•130.0)
•036.0)
•337.0)
123.0)
-259.6)
0.63 (
1.22 (
1.19 1
0.50 1
0.23 1
0.00 1
1.08 1
0.66 1
0.41 1
0.92 i
1.56
8.27
0.82
: 0.32,
: 0.62,
I 0.60,
: f>.25,
[ 0.12,
[ 0.20,
[ 0.50,
1 0.33,
[ 0.21,
t O.Ofe,
( 0.79,
t 0.17,
( 0.01,
1.25)
2.«3)
2.36)
1.00)
0.06)
0.79)
?. 10)
1.31)
o.ai)
1.82)
3.10)
Ib.uO)
1 .62)
0.00
0.52
1.00
0.72
o.oo
0.32
0.88
0.92
0.80
0.96
0.96
-0.72
0.96
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIHE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CHEEK (1976)
MODEL! COHPTER
AVERAGING IIKEI 3 HOURS
AVENAGE
DATA S6TS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M«*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(08S-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OB8/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
480.9
607.9
•127.0 (-184.2, -69.8)
-115.7 (-173.2, -64.3)
0.39 ( 0.20, 0.78)
0.56 (.385)
2. HY SIATION/ALL
EVENTS (A«4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
31ATICN 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
> STATION 6
ro
3. BY METEQRCL06ICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. WlM) SPEEU
<2.5 K/SEC
2.5 TO 5 K/SEC
>5 M/SEC
fl. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E ft F
372.7
373.6
252.8
360.2
177.1
287.8
338.6
445.5
316.0
263.6
364.3
443.1
217.9
379.3
359.5
532.3
369.8
213.4
222.7
426.2
575.6
356.6
456.3
515.2
400.5
289.8
-6.6
14.1
-279.5
-9.6
-36.3
65.1
-67.6
-130.1
-42.6
-192.5
-150.9
42.6
-71.9
( -58.4
( -39.1
(-352.1
( -64.1
(-109.2
( 16. 8
(-136.8,
(-196.6,
( -97.7,
(-258.4,
(-219.4,
( 2.1,
(-131.3,
45.2)
67.3)
-206.9)
4«.9)
36.6)
113.4)
-38.4)
-63.6)
12.5)
•126.6)
-82.4)
83.1)
-12.5)
9.7
41.8
-251.3
-30.3
-30.5
98.2
-70.5
-172.1
-40.8
-190.4
-99.8
34.8
-44.8
( -28.2,
( -26.1,
(-331.1,
( -52.6,
( -80.5,
( 31.4,
(-130.4,
(-187.8,
( -87.9,
(-244.8,
(-184.3,
( 6.7,
( -88.4,
36.7)
65.6)
-194.7)
6.4)
40.6)
126.9)
-38.5)
•47.5)
-7.8)
•119.1)
-81.7)
70.9)
-24.5)
0.57
0.96
0.26
1.41
0.32
0.24
0.59
0.29
1.21 1
0.36 1
0.46
1.24 {
0.47 I
( 0.29,
( 0.48,
( 0.13,
( 0.71,
( 0.16,
( 0.12,
0.30,
0.15,
0.61,
0.18,
0.23,
0.63,
0.24,
1 .12)
1.91)
0.51)
2.80)
0.64)
0.46)
1.16)
0.58)
2.11)
0.72)
0.92)
2.46)
0.94)
-0.16
-0.28
0.92
0.32
-0.32
-0.60
0.44
0.52
n.aa
0.64
0.72
-0.36
0.52
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.365)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL1 COMPTER AVERAGING TIMEl 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Data Sets
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
Average Observed
Value
C°,
125.3
Bias
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Averages
f» /i _ r*
i-p ^»o **p
152.0
-26.7
(+16.3)
-23.2
Difference
of Medians
**o ~ Kp
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OH LOCATION)
CLIFTV CREEK (1975)
MODELi SCSTER
AVERAGING 1IMEI I HOUR
DATA SETS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/f**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/H**3)
D1FFEHENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/**O)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PREO)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FFREO)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
790.8
6*0.1
-69.3 (-185.8,
47.2)
-62.J (-146.7, -31.0)
2.08 ( 1.05, 4.13)
0.44 (.305)
NJ
2. BY STATICN/ALL
EVENTS (A-flH)
STATIOK 1
STATION 2
STATIOK 3
STATION 4
STATIOK 5
STATION 6
3. BV METEOROLOGICAL
CONUITION (A-5)
A, MIND SPEED
<2.5 K/SEC
2.5 TO 5 K/SEC
>5 P/SEC
U. STAHILITY GROUP
CLASS * » B
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS t « f
506
535
580
550
225
512
653
652
489
481
678
586
398
.9
.0
.0
.0
.9
.6
.5
.0
.9
.3
.9
.6
.0
482
676
720
527
202
450
749
763
230
839
658
236
72
.1
.a
.1
.3
.9
.4
.3
.9
.a
.3
.5
.1
.3
26
-141
-140
22
23
62
-95
-111
259
-358
20
350
325
.8
.8
.1
.7
.0
.2
.8
.9
.1
.0
.4
.5
.7
( -38
(-214
(-271
i -40
(-101
{ -54
(-190
(-230
( 200
(-443
( -85
( 312
( 223
.4,
.2,
.1,
.5,
.0,
.a,
.7,
.1,
.6,
.9,
.8,
.0,
.2,
92.0)
-69.«)
-9.1)
85.9)
147.0)
179.2)
-0.9)
6.3)
317.6)
126.6)
389.0)
428.2)
58.2
129.4
173.8
23.4
162.8
49.0
( 13
(-190
(-243
( -44
( 22
( -34
.2,
• 6,
.4,
.6,
.9,
.7,
83
-73
-69
80
169
121
.5)
.5)
.8)
.8)
.7)
.2)
0
0
1
2
0
1
.51
.55 i
.83 1
.08 <
.08 1
.74 I
( 0.26,
( 0.28,
t 0.92,
[ 1.05,
[ 0.04,
[ 0.88,
1
1
3
4
0
3
.01)
.10)
.63)
.13)
.16)
.46)
-0.56
0.64
0.52
-0.20
-0.60
-0.32
(-.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
•122.6 (-174.7, -50.3)
•104.2 (-165.7, -77,M
227.4 ( 182.4, 301.0)
•336.0 (-411.2, -278.6)
-52.0 ( -93.4, 31.4)
337.6 ( 311.6, 377.3)
246.0 ( 198.1, 296.9)
1.80 ( 0.91, 3.56)
1.64 ( 0.93, 3.65)
0.09 ( 2.06, 8.11)
0.45 ( 0.23, 0.90)
9.17 ( 4.62, 18.19)
2.14 ( l.OA, 4.26)
110.50 (55.70,219.21)
0.48 (.385)
0.64 (.385)
•0.96 (.385)
0.92 (.385)
0.40 (.385)
•1.00 (.385)
•1.00 (.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OR LOCATION)
CL1FTY CREEK (|975)
MODEL! SCSTEH
AVERAGING I ICE I 3 HOURS
NJ
U)
DAT* SETS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(IIG/M««3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/M*«3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/K**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
476.3
413.4
62.9 ( 6.0, 119.6) 64. U ( 15.7, 106. 9) 1.09 ( 0.55,
3.16) -0.40 (.385)
BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4H)
STATION 1
STATION I
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. KINO SPEED
<2.5 f'/SEC
2,5 TO 5 K/SEC
>5 K/SEC
B. S1AHRITY GROUP
CLASS A » 8
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS E A F
322.6
286,6
315.9
313.3
12S.6
257.9
316.2
410.5
308.1
228.3
359.0
385.5
196.9
203.6
298.8
295.4
231.8
67.8
162.6
283.0
369.4
128. «
361.2
321.8
187.8
32.3
119.0
-12.2
20.5
81.5
57.8
95.3
33.2
41.1
179.3
-132.9
37.2
197.7
164.6
( 79.3,
( -77.7,
( -50.7,
( 30.3,
( 6.9,
( 33.8,
( -34.4,
( -11.2,
( 126.6,
(-203.0,
( -20.8,
( 158.9,
( 116.3,
158.7)
53.3)
91,7)
132.7)
108.7)
1S6.8)
100.8)
93.4)
232.0)
-62.8)
95.2)
236.5)
212.9)
124.4
-7.6
-47.4
91.6
96.2
52.1
55.7
28.7
128.4
-130.0
22.9
175.7
131.8
( 81.6,
( -38.6,
( -54.1,
( 42. 8,
( 72.4,
( 16.9,
( 12.0,
( -3 r 7 ,
( 122.3,
(-191.6,
( -13.9,
( 150.6,
( 103.2,
148.2)
49. 1)
49.9)
123.3)
108.4)
130.6)
61.9)
73.7)
186.3)
-83.9)
59.7)
221.3)
154.7)
1.35
0.37
2.24
1.12
0.14
1.89
0.55
1.99
4.74
1.20
2.27
4.77
30,19
( 0.68,
( 0.19,
( 1.13,
( 0.57,
( 0.07,
( 0.95,
( 0.28,
( 1.00,
( 2.39,
( 0.61,
( 1.11,
( 2.10,
(15.22,
2.67)
0.73)
4.45)
2.23)
0.29)
3.76)
1.10)
3.94)
9.40)
2.36)
4.49)
9.«6)
59.86)
-0.68
-0.36
-0.16
-0,60
-0.80
-0.52
-0.52
-0.24
-0.96
0.68
•0.24
-0.96
-1.00
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OP 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CREEK (1975)
MODEL! SC8TER AVERAGING TIMEl 24 HOURS
to
Data Set 6
Average Observed
Value
C0
(W9/»* )
i. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
126.
7
Bias
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Ave rages
Cp C0 - Cp
(+18.1)
(+8.9)
(+8.4)
(+14.7)
57.4
20.1
19.1
41.7
28.2
19.7
(46.6,
(10.6,
(10. 1.
(29.7,
(24.2,
(14.7,
67.1)
27.3)
35.0)
48.0)
31.2)
35.4)
5.99 (3.02, 11.86)
1.43 (0.72, 2.83)
3.07 (1.55, 6.08)
2.72 (1.37, 5.39)
0.31 (0.16, 0.61)
2.07 (1.04, 4.10)
-0.96
-0.60
-0.48
-0.88
-0.84
-0.72
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL! SC8TER
AVERAGING TIKE: 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
UATA SETS * OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/K**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PHEO)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OB8/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
i. ALL STATIONS/ALL
tVENTS (A-OA)
771.8
906.9
•135.1 (-205.2, -65.0)
•114.6 (-170.0, -62.4)
0.33 ( 0.16, 0.65)
0.56 (.385)
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A«4B)
STATION 1 '
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
> STATION 5
k STATION 6
LD
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONU1I1GN (A-5)
A. WIND SPEED
<2.5 C/SEC
2.5 TO 5 K/SEC
>5 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GNOUH
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS n
CLASS E 8 F
581.7
658.9
450.2
546.7
321.3
496.8
666.9
667.5
458.5
541.4
631.4
672.4
343.5
460.1
633.4
791.8
575.9
166.3
530.6
826.5
729.4
318.1
694.0
666.4
250.2
83.6
121.6
25.5
-341.6
•29.2
133.0
-34.0
-157.6
-61.9
100.4
-352.6
-37.0
422.2
259.7
( 67.1
( -57.4
(-414.7
( -92.6
( -6.6
(-112.4
(-246.4,
(-134.3,
( 55.8,
(-439.1,
(-102.9,
( 362.0,
( 219.3.
176.1)
106.4)
-266.5)
34.2)
272.6)
44.4)
-68.8)
10.5)
225.0)
-266.1)
26.9)
462.4)
300.1)
90.6
64.5
-317.9
•5.1
175.6
-36.2
-133.9
-42.9
157.5
-379.5
-66.2
412.3
225.7
( 59.2,
( -43.4,
(-426.5,
( -62.1,
( 130.7,
( -60.1,
(-220.3,
( -97.4,
( 120.3,
(-424.9,
(-127.1,
( 369.6,
( 215.7,
165.4)
120.4)
•256.5)
41.6)
231.7)
51.6)
-66.3)
6.6)
182.9)
-279.0)
20.0)
441.3)
269.2)
1.31
0.96
0.50
0.54
0.28
0.33
0.58
O.flS
0.50
0.74
4.46
8.13
9.81
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.66,
0.46,
0.25,
0.27,
0.14,
0.17,
0.29,
0.25,
0.25,
0.37,
2.25,
4.10,
4.95,
2.60)
1.90)
0.99)
1.08)
0.56)
0.65)
1.16)
0.98)
0.99)
1.46)
8.85)
16.13)
19.47)
-0.56
-0.24
0.92
0.20
-0.76
-0.24
0.46
0.28
-0.88
0.84
0.48
-1.00
-1.00
.365)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.365)
,385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
502 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL' SCSTER
AVERAGING TIKE: 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(U6/M«*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/M*«3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PREO)
<3 I'/SEC
b. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS * ft a
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS t & f
372.7
373.6
252.6
360.2
177.1
287.8
336.6
445.5
316.0
263.8
364.3
443.1
217,9
216.3
250.6
318.7
251.0
72. *•
209.1
309.4
398,8
160.0
367.1
341.8
207.0
35.1
154.4
123.0
-65.9
109.2
104.5
78.7
29.2
46.7
156.0
-103.3
22.5
236.1
182.6
( 113.1,
( 70.8,
(-124.1,
( 58.0,
( 42.1,
( 29.9,
( -11.5,
( -1.8,
( 109.3,
(•155.8,
( -26.0,
( 203.1,
( 146.8,
195.7)
175.2)
-7.7)
160.4)
166.9)
127. S)
69.9)
95.2)
202.7)
-50.6)
71.0)
269.1)
216.6)
165.3 I
136.9 I
-53.7 i
83.3 1
121.1 !
109.0 1
68.9 1
34.0 1
140.6 1
•114.8 (
20.9 1
217.7 (
171.4 (
[ 121.8,
( 78.5,
( -91.4,
( 66.6,
[ 68.5,
I 40.9,
I -8.2,
[ 12.5,
[ 109.0,
>150.4,
: -24.3,
1 192.7,
: ioi.4,
166.4)
162.4)
-11.6)
124.2)
153.2)
103.2)
70.4)
63.3)
168.5)
-49.1)
«7.4)
252.2)
197.7)
1.32
1.04
0.46
1.96
0.49
0.24
1.17 i
0.72 i
3.38 1
0.71 1
1.71 1
5.3« 1
7.36 1
( 0.66,
( 0.52,
( 0.23,
( 0.99,
( 0.25,
( 0.12,
( 0,59,
C 0.36,
t 1.70,
[ 0.36,
[ 0.86,
[ 2.69,
! 3.71,
2.61)
2.05)
0.90)
3.89)
0.98)
0.47)
2.33)
1.03)
6.70)
1.01)
3.00)
10.60)
10. 61)
•0.80
•0.76
0.40
•0.60
•0.80
•0.60
-0.24
-0.48
-0,80
0.56
-0.16
-1.00
-1.00
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OP 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFFY CREEK (1976)
MODEL! SCSTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
NJ
-4
Performance Measures
Data Sets
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
Average Observed
Value
C0
(M9/*1 )
125.3
Average Predicted Difference
value of_Averages
Cp C0 - Cp
(»9/*t > (M9/»3)
85.3
40.0
(±13.8)
Bias
Difference
of Medians
"o -HP
(ng/»3)
39.8 (33.9,
50.9)
Variance
Comparison
So1 /Spl
.47
(.24,
.93)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
U(C0) - t(Cj,)| max
(traction)
-.88
(.385)
2. By station/all
events (A
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
96.4
64.8
64.3
107.7
40.1
71.8
47.2
43.9
63.4
54.0
9.B
27.9
49.2
40.9
.9
53.7
30.3
43.9
(±11.3)
(±11.2)
(+18.3)
(+12.8)
(±10.3)
(±10.0)
56.1 (41.2,
45.4 (32.0,
-5.3 (-11.2,
50.3 (38.9,
32.4 (24.2,
47.9 (34.6,
59.9)
52.4)
16.7)
62.7)
34.4)
53.5)
.86
.77
.45
3.16
1.13
1.56
• 43,
.39,
-23,
1.59,
.57,
.79,
1.71)
1.53)
.90)
6.26)
2.25)
3.09)
-.88
-.84
-.32
-.88
-.84
-.84
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OK LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELt M3141
AVERAGING TIMEl 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SE13 OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OB8-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PREO)
FREQUENCY
UISTRIBlTIOf
COMPARISON
(F0.8S-FPREO)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
790.8
557.0
233.« ( 131.2, 336.4)
194.9 ( 138.1, 227.9)
8.87 ( 4.47, 17.59) -0.80 (.385)
00
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-<|H)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
3. BY METEORCLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. *IKD SPEED
<2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 M/StC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS b It F
506.9
535.0
580.0
550.0
3?S . O
512.6
653.5
652.0
489.9
481.3
678.9
586.6
39870
318.6
427.4
468.0
388.1
240.0
306.0
515.0
467.3
161.4
541.9
427.7
171.2
61.1
190.3
107.6
ua.o
161.9
-14.1
206.6
13ft. 5
184.7
308.5
-60.6
251.2
415.4
336.9
( 145.8
( 51.4
( -2.6
( 100.8
( -89.8
( 107.0
( 54.7,
( 82.9,
( 251.4,
(-121.0,
( 147.3,
( 377.0,
( 234.8,
234.8)
163.8)
226.6)
223.0)
61.6)
306.2)
222.3)
286.5)
365.6)
-0.2)
355.1)
453.8)
439.0)
176
93
74
171
43
175
.6 ( 148.3,
.7
.2
.6
.2
.0
51.5,
-0.7,
88.7,
"51.6,
102.4,
208.
146.
141.
217.
73.
212.
5)
7)
0)
1)
3)
1)
2.62
1.45
5.88
2.59
0.24
7.81
( 1
( 0
( 2
( 1
( 0
( 3
.32,
.73,
.97,
.30,
.12,
.93,
5
2
11
5
0
15
.19)
.87)
.67)
.13)
.47)
.48)
-0.92
-0.56
-0.32
-0.60
-0.40
-0.72
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
97.7 ( 52.1, 161.1)
153.6 ( 101.8, 187.1)
280.4 ( 228.5, 333.t)
fl.97 ( 2.50, 9.65)
7.49 ( 3.78, 14.87)
5.32 ( ?.68, 10.55)
-53.3 (-120.3, -13.1) 1.70 ( 0.86, 3.38)
174.6 ( 139.4, 260.2) 19.53 ( 9.84, 30.74)
399.6 ( 374.8, 446.3) 2.17 ( 1.10, fl.11)
245.0 ( 203.1, 309.6) 754.33(301.0 1493.6 )
•0.52 (.385)
•0.76 (.385)
•1.00 (.385)
0.48 (.385)
•0.84 (.385)
•1.00 (.385)
•1.00 (.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SU2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OH LOCATION)
CLIFfY CHEEK (1975)
MODELt M3141
AVERAGING TIKEI 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
UATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M*3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M»»3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
IUG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OB3-PHEO)
(UG/K»*3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PREO)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOB8-FFREO)
(FRACTION)
i. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A
476.3
396.9
179.0 ( 133.5, 225.3)
151.6 ( 126.1, 203.6)
a.25 ( 2.14, e.afl) -0.92 (.365)
NJ
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STM10N 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. WINU SPEED
<2.5 */SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 K/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A A b
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS E * F
322.6
286.6
315.9
313.3
125.6
257.9
316.2
410.5
306.1
22«.3
359.0
385.5
196.9
160.6
226.5
224.0
193.9
93.9
137.6
223.6
265,8
112.7
265.7
246.4
134.3
30.8
162.0
60.1
91.9
119.4
31.7
120.3
92.6
144.7
195.4
-37.4
112.6
251.2
166.1
( 127.7,
( 13.9,
( 25.9,
( 73.7,
( "7.7,
( 65. 3,
( 39.3,
( 99.5,
( 144.8,
( -96.7,
( 61.3,
( 214.0,
( 118.3,
196.3)
106.3)
157.9)
165.1)
71.1)
175.3)
145.9)
189.9)
246.0)
21.9)
163.9)
288.4)
213.9)
153.5
47.9
11.7
128.9
55.2
85.5
109.1
126.4
141.2
-55.1
84.1
230.1
130.0
( 120.6,
( 26.2,
( 13.1,
( 75.3,
( 20.9,
( 58.2,
( 65.6,
( aa.o,
( 129.1,
(•104.4,
( 12.5,
( 150.7,
( 100.8,
180.1)
85.3)
105.9)
154.4)
76.6)
126.6)
121.7)
165.9)
203.0)
-11.6)
113.2)
276.6)
155.8)
3.52
1.15
4.38
1.96
0.27
4.78
1.35
11.53
11 .16
3.38
11.00
12.59
101.65
( 1.77,
( 0.56,
( 2.21,
( 1.00,
( 0.13,
( 2.41,
( 0.68,
( 5.81,
( 5.62,
( 1.71 ,
( 5.55,
( 6.35,
(51 .34,
6.96)
2.26)
8.69)
3.92)
0.53)
9.46)
2.68)
22.87)
22.11)
6.71)
21.83)
24.98)
202. oa)
-1.00
-0.56
-0.40
•0.68
-0.64
• 0.64
-0.64
-0.88
-0.96
0.36
-0.68
-1.00
-1.00
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S0: fONr-RNTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELi 3141 AVERAGING TIMEi 24 HOURS
U)
o
Performance Measures
Data Sets
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
Average Observed
Value
C0
(M9/»* 1
126.7
Bias
Average Predicted Difference
Value of Averages
Cp C0 - Cp
(M9/"1 > (M9/"3F
63.1
63.6
(114.3)
57. B
Difference
of Medians
Mo - *P
(M9/»3)
(44.8,
71.6)
Variance Frequency Distribution
Comparison Comparison
1 1 (C0) - t (Cp) | MX
So'/Sp1 (fraction)
6.10 (3.08,
12.10)
-1.00
(.385)
2. By station/all
events (A
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
97.4
65.4
78.1
84.5
34.9
57.5
35.4
39.9
43.6
45.1
14.3
26.1
62.0
25.5
34.5
39.4
20.6
31.4
(+14.4)
(+13.5)
(+17.3)
(+8.4)
(+7.0)
(+13.7)
57.6
20.7
22.3
42.1
23.0
23.8
(47.0,
(14.1.
(15.6,
(29.1,
(18.2,
(17.7,
66.1)
30.3)
38.1)
48.6)
26.6)
33.5)
5.47 (2.76,
2.55 (1.29.
5.C5 (2.55,
4.32 (2.1U,
.49 (.25,
3.74 (1.86,
10.85)
5.06)
10.02)
8.58)
.97)
7.41)
-.96
-.72
-.60
-.92
-.76
-.72
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(-385)
(.385)
I.3b5)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PHEUlCTtD
SU2 CGNCFNTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE CR LOCATIOM
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL» M3141
AVERAGING T1MEJ 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/>'**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OB3-PREO)
(UG/M*«3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FFRED)
(FRACTION)
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) 771.8 565.6
206.a ( 152.1, 260.3)
( 170.1, 264.2)
0.69 ( 0.35, t.37) -0.80 (.385)
2. BY STAUON/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STAIION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STAIION 6
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. nlND SPEED
<2.5 f/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 C/SEC
B. STABILITY GHOUP
CLASS A It B
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS ERF
58J.7
658.9
450.2
546.7
321.3
496. A
668.9
667.5
456.5
541.4
631.4
672.4
343.5
299.6
416.9
526.0
403.8
196.0
349.2
522.8
461.7
199.1
559.0
440.3
150.3
66.1
282.1
242.0
-75.8
142.9
125.3
147.6
146.1
185.8
259.4
-17.6
191 .1
522.1
277.4
( 237.4,
( ! 7" .7 ,
(-133.1,
( 97.1,
( 31.6,
( 101.5,
( 74.1,
( 136.7,
( 194.6,
( -88.7,
( 128. A,
( 483.3,
( 238.3,
326.8)
305.3)
-18.5)
188.7)
219.0)
193.7)
218.1)
234.9)
324.2)
53.5)
253.4)
560.9)
316.5)
273.3 1
250.3 1
-79.4 I
153.0 1
128.1 1
136.0 1
172.9 i
173.0 <
252.7
-21.1
153.5
510.9
236.7
[ 224.0,
[ 141.3,
[-113.4,
[ 91.4,
t 77.0,
[ 109.0,
( 76.2,
( 133.6,
( 223.5,
( -74.9,
( 86.6,
( 469.8,
C 225.0,
312.7)
315.6)
-45.8)
181.6)
167.1)
164.9)
219.2)
216.5)
276.7)
17.9)
255.9)
531.7)
283.7)
5.83
5.57
1.18
2.06
0.93
2.42
1.27
2.53
1.31
1.66
16.90
33.20
70.94
( 2.94,
( 2.81,
( 0.59,
( 1.04,
( 0.47,
( 1.22,
( 0.64,
( 1.26,
( 0.66,
( 0.85,
( fl.52,
(16.74,
(35.76,
11.57)
11.04)
2.33)
4.10)
1.84)
4.80)
S.53)
5.03)
a. 60)
3.34)
33.52)
65.87)
140.71)
-1 .00
-0.92
0.56
-0.72
-0.68
-0.84
-0.64
-0.92
-0.84
-0.08
-0.84
-1 .00
-1.00
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 85 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
3da CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CHEER (1976)
MODEL! M3I41
AVERAGING TIKES 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M.o*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PKED)
(UG/M*«3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/M*3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
I . ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-1A) 480.9 290.6
190.3 ( 150.7, 325.9)
173.1 ( 144.3, 236.2)
2.79 ( 1.40, 5.53) -0.96 (.385)
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
> STATION 5
Jj STATION 6
Ni
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. wlNU SPEED
<2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS t 8 F
372.7
373.6
252.8
360.2
177.1
287.8
338.6
445.5
316.0
263.8
364.3
443.1
217.9
163.7
194.2
240.3
203.6
90.2
157.7
227.3
274.7
124.8
254.5
251.2
136.8
34.9
209.0
179.4
12.5
156.6
96."
130.1
111.3 1
170.8 1
191.8 1
9.3 1
113.1 (
306.3 1
183.0 1
( 175.1,
( 136.1,
( -31.0,
( 110. 8,
f 47.9,
( 96.6,
[ 74.3,
[ 132.3,
I 146.4,
[ -33.9,
[ 7!. 8,
[ 274.9,
I 148.0,
242.9)
222.7)
56.0)
202.4)
145.9)
163.6)
148.3)
209.3)
237.2)
52.5)
154,4)
337.7)
218.0)
204.0
193.5
-13.4
116.9
74.8 i
153.7
131.2 I
137.7 I
177.2 1
-14.6 1
103.2 1
279.7 (
173.0 1
( 165.4,
( 130.6,
( -26.7,
I 103. 8,
( 58. 6,
( 105.2,
[ 77.4,
( 130.4,
t 146.7,
I -37.3,
[ 64.0,
I 258.2,
: 136.7,
225.1)
210.3)
38.0)
16?. 8)
129.3)
162.1)
143.0)
193.0)
195.8)
49.6)
126.8)
319.9)
199.2)
5.85
2.95
1.27
5.16
1.15
0.67
i.ae
2.01
4.39
1.59
8.74
20.99
27.79
( 2.95,
( 1.49,
( 0.64,
( 2.60,
( 0.58,
( 0.34,
( 0.95,
( 1.01,
( 2.21,
( 0.80,
( 1.40,
(10.58,
(14.01,
11.61)
5.86)
2.53)
10.23)
2.28)
1.32)
3.73)
3.96)
8.71)
3.16)
17.33)
41 .60)
55.12)
-1.00
-0.88
• 0.28
-0.80
-0.76
-0.80
-0.60
-0.92
-0.92
-0.20
-0.76
-1 .00
. -1.00
C.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELi 3X41 AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
U)
U)
Performance Measures
Data Sets
•
Average Observed
Value
Co
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIPE OR LOCATIOK)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL I M4141
AVERAGING TIME I I HOUR
DATA SETS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M*3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(U6/H**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(UBS-PREO)
(UG/M*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PRED)
(U6/K**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREOUE'KCY
(USTRIBfcTIOfc
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPREO)
(FRACTIOM
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
790.8
557.0
233.6 ( 131.2, 336.4)
194.9 ( 138.4, 227.9)
8.87 ( 4.47, 17.59) -O.BO (.385)
00
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STAT10K 1
STATION 2
STATIOK 3
STATIOfc 4
STATIOK 5
SIATIOK 6
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. MIND SPEED
<2.5 f/3EC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 K/3EC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS E * f
508.9
535.0
560.0
550.0
225.9
512.6
653.5
652.0
469.9
481.3
678.9
566.6
398.0
316.6
427.4
466.0
366.1
240.0
306.0
515.0
467.3
181.4
54|,9
427.7
171.2
151.4
190.3
107.6
112.0
161.9
•14,1
206.6
138.5
184.7
306.5
-60.6
251.2
415.4
246.6
( 145.6,
( 51.4,
( -2.6,
( 100.6,
( -89.6,
( 107.0,
( 54.7,
( 82.9,
( 251.4,
(-121.0,
( 147.3,
( 377.0,
( 144.2,
234.6)
163.6}
226.6)
223.0)
61.6)
306.2)
222.3)
286.5)
365.6)
-0.2)
355.1)
453.6)
349.0)
176.6
93.7
74.2
171.6
43.2
175.0
97.7
153.6
280.4
-53.3
174.6
399.8
157.0
146.3,
91.5,
•0.7,
68.7,
•51.6,
( 102.4,
( 52.1,
( 101.6,
( 226.5,
(-120.3,
( 139.4,
( 374.8,
( 116.7,
206.5)
146.7)
141.0)
217.1)
73.3)
212.2)
161.1)
187.1)
333.6)
-13.1)
260.2)
44fe.3)
220.3)
2.62
1.45
5.88
2.59
0.24
7.81
4.97
7.49
5.32
1.70
19.53
2.17
130.48
( 1.32,
( 0.73,
( 2.97,
( 1.30,
( 0.12,
( 3.93,
( 2.50,
( 3.78,
( 2.68,
( 0.66,
( 9.84,
( 1.10,
(65.77,
5.19)
2.67)
11.67)
5.13)
0.47)
15.48)
9,85)
14.87)
10.55)
3.38)
38.74)
4.31)
258.85)
-0.92
-0.56
-0.32
-0.60
•0.40
-0.72
-0.52
-0.76
-1.00
0.46
-0.84
-1.00
-1.00
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.365)
(.365}
(.3853
(.385]
(.385]
(.385]
(.365]
(.3851
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 35 HIGHEST OB3EHVEO AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME UN LOCATION)
CL1FTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL! M4141
AVERAGING TIME! 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M*3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M«*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/***3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PREU)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FFRED)
(FRACTION)
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) 476.3 296,9
( 133.5, 225.3)
151.6 ( 126.1, 203.6)
4.25 ( 2.11, 8.44) -0.92 (.385)
2.
3.
8V STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4H)
SrAllON
STATION
STATION
STATION
STATION
STATION
Hf METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. MIND SPEED
<2.5 f/SLC
2,5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 W/SEC
322.fr
286.6
315.9
313.3
125.6
257.9
316.2
410.5
308.1
226.5
224.0
194.5
93.9
137.6
224.2
265.8
112.7
159.5 { 125.6,
60.1 ( 13.9,
25.9,
73.1,
•7.7,
65.3,
91.9 (
118.8 (
31.7 (
120.3 (
193.4)
106.3)
157.9)
164.5)
71.1)
175.3)
92.0 ( 38.8, 145.2)
144.7 ( 99.5, 189,9)
195.4 ( 144.8, 246.0)
148.
47.
11.
128.
55.
85.
2 (
9 (
7 (
9 (
2 (
5 £
119.2,
26.2,
13.1,
75.1,
20.9,
58.2,
176
85
105
154
76
126
.6)
.3)
.9)
.3)
.8)
.6)
3.93 1
i.i; i
4.38 I
1.98 i
0,27 1
4,78 I
( 1
[ 0
( 2
( 1
[ 0
( 2
.98,
.58,
.21,
.00,
.13,
.41,
7.80)
2.28)
8.69)
3.94)
0.53)
9.48)
-1
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
.00
.56
.40
.60
.64
.64
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
104.3 ( 61.3, 120.0)
126.4 ( 88.0, 165.9)
141,2 ( 129.1, 203.0)
1.36 ( 0.69, 2.70)
11.53 ( 5.81, 22.87)
11.16 ( 5.62, 22.13)
•0.64 (.385)
•0.88 (.385)
•0,
-------
TABLE A, COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL! 4141 AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Data Sets
Average Observed
Value
Co
Bias
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Avera - MCp)J -ax
uo* /6p* (traction)
1. All stations/all
events (A
- 4a)
126.7
64.0
62.7
(+14.3)
57.3
(43.6,
71.1)
6.59 (3.32,
13.06)
-1.00
(.385)
2. Dy btation/all
events (A
Station
Station
"| Station
^ Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
97.4
65.4
78.1
84.5
34.9
57.5
38.4
40.0
43.0
46.6
14.3
26.0
59.0
25.4
34.5
37.9
20.6
31.5
(+14.3)
(+13.5)
(+17.2)
(+8.5)
(+7.0)
(+13.7)
. 53.7
20.7
22.3
42.0
23.0
23.8
(43.5,
(13.9,
(IS. 6,
(27.3,
(18.2,
(17.7.
63.2)
30.1)
38.1)
47.5)
26.6)
33.5)
5.76 (2.91,
2.56 (1.29,
5.07 (2.56,
3.84 (1.93,
.49 (.25,
3.74 (1.88,
11.43)
5.08)
10.06)
7.61)
.98)
7.41)
-.96
-.68
-.60
-.88
-.76
-.72
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIF1Y CREEK (1976)
MODEL«
AVERAGING TIKE I 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
UA1A SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(ue/N**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(ODS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(CB3-PREO)
(UG/H**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
1 . ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-OA) TT1.8 565.6
206.2 ( 152.1, 260.3)
243.3 ( 170.1, 26S.2)
0.69 ( 0.35, 1.37) -0,80 (.385)
u>
2. 8Y STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CUNOITION (A-5)
A. WIND SPEED
<2.5 f/SEC
2.5 JO 5 M/stt
>5 M/SfcC
b. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A It B
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS t 1 F
581.7
658.9
450.2
546.7
321.3
496.8
668.9
667.5
458.5
541.4
631.4
672.4
343.5
299.6
416.9
526.0
403.8
196.0
349.2
522.8
481.7
199.1
5S9.0
440.3
150.3
158.9
282.1
242.0
-75.8
142.9
125.3
147.6
146.1
185.8
259.0
-17.6
191.)
522.1
ino.6
( 237.4,
( 178.7,
(-133.1,
( 97.1,
( 31.6,
( 101.5,
( 74.1,
( 136.7,
( 190.6,
( -8fl,7,
( 128.8,
( 483.3,
( 140.8,
326.8)
305.3)
-18.5)
IBB. 7)
219.0)
193,7)
218.1)
234.9)
320.2)
53.5)
253.4)
560,9)
220.4)
273.3
250.3
-79.4
153.0
128.1
136.0
172.9
1J3.0
252.7
-21.1
153.5
510.9
145.6
( 224.0,
( 141.3
(-113.4
( 91.4
( 77.0
( 109.0
( 76.2,
( 133.6,
( 223.5,
( -74.9,
( 86.6,
( 469.8,
( 135.8,
312.7)
315.9)
-45.8)
181.6)
167.1)
164.9)
219.2)
216.5)
276.7)
17.9)
255.9)
531.7)
19«.l)
5.83
5.57
1.19
2.06
0.93
2,48
1.27
a. 53
1.31
1.68
16.90
33. 20
14.79
( 2.94,
( 2.81,
( 0.59,
( 1.04,
( 0.47,
( 1.22,
( 0.64,
( 1.28,
( 0.66,
( 0.85,
( P. 52,
(U.74,
( 7.46,
11.57)
11.04)
2.33)
4.10)
1.84)
4.80)
2.53)
5.03)
2.60)
3.3«)
33,52)
f>5.87)
29.35)
-1.00
-0.92
0.56
-0.72
-0.68
-0.80
-0.64
-0.92
-0.84
-0.08
-0,84
-1.00
-1.00
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OK LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL 1 M141
AVERAGING TIME! 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
IJAU SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M»*3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OB3-PREO)
(UG/M*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OB3-PKED)
(UG/M**J)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FUEQUEKCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPREO)
(FRACTION)
i. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) U60.9
290.6
190.3 ( 154.7, 225.9)
173.1 ( 104.3, 236.2)
2.7S ( 1.40, 5.53) -0.96 (.385)
2.
00
00
BY STATIC/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION I
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STAIION 5
STATION 6
tfY ME1EOKOLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. hINU SPEED
<2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 K/SEC
H. SUBILIIY GROUP
CLASS A 8 B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E » F
372.7
373.6
252.6
360.2
177.1
287.6
338.6
445.5
316.0
263.8
364.3
443.1
217.9
166.9
194.2
240.3
203.6
60.2
157.7
227.3
274,7
124.2
254.5
251.2
136.8
79.2
205.6
179.4
12.5
156.6
96.9
130.1
111.3
170.8
191.8
9.3
113.1
306.3
138.7
172.0,
136.1,
-31.0,
110.8,
47.9,
96.6,
( 74.3,
( 132.3,
( 146.4,
( -33.9,
( 71.6,
( 274.9,
( 101.6,
239.6)
222.7)
56.0)
202.4)
145.9)
163.6)
148.3)
209.3)
237.2)
52.5)
154.4)
337.7)
175.8)
199.3
193.5
-13.4
116.9
74.8
161
130
-26
103
56
153.7 ( 105
.5,
.6,
.7,
.8,
.8,
.2,
223.
210.
38.
162.
129.
162.
2)
3)
0)
8)
3)
1)
6
2
1
5
1
0
.20
.95
.27
.16
.15
.67
( 3.12,
[ 1 .49,
C 0.64,
( 2.60,
I 0.56,
[ 0.34,
12
5
2
10
2
1
.29)
.66)
.53)
.23)
.26)
.32)
-1.00
-0.66
-0.28
-0.80
-0.76
-0.80
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
131.2 ( 77.4, 145.0)
137.7 ( 130.4, 193.0)
177.2 ( 146.6, 195.6)
-14.6 ( -37.3, 49.6)
1V3.2 ( 64.0, 126.6)
279.7 ( 258.2, 31S.9)
138.8 ( 96.3, 154.1)
1.88 ( 0.95, 3.73)
2.01 ( 1.01, 3.96)
4.39 ( 2.21, 8.71)
1.5S ( 0.80, 3.16)
8.7fl ( 4.40, 17.33)
21.15 (10.66, 41.96)
4.94 ( 2.49, 9.81)
•0.60 (.385)
-0.92 (.365)
•0.92 (.365)
•0.20 (.385)
•0.76 (.385)
•1.00 (.385)
•0.92 (.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIHE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELi 4141 AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Per for
•ance Measures
Bias
Average Observed
Value
Data Seta Co
Average Predicted
Value
Cp
(xg/rf )
Difference
of_Averagea
(M9/»3f
Difference
of Medians
M0 ~ Mp
(t»9/»3)
Variance frequency Distribution
Comparison Comparison
1 1 (C0) - t (Cp) | «ax
BO* /sp* (traction)
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
u>
125.3
71.9
53.4 (+10.1)
54.6 (44.0, 59.8)
1.49 (.75, 2.96)
-.92 (.385)
2. By station/all
events (A
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
96.
84.
64.
107.
40.
71.
4
a
3
7
1
a
46.8
39.6
53.4
55.3
12.6
24.6
49.6
45.2
10.9
52.4
27. 5
47.2
(+9.7)
(+9.2)
(+14.2)
(+12. 0>
(+9.0)
(+8.9)
52.9 (40.4,
44.1 (35.3,
9.5 (0.5,
49.5 (36.4,
23.3 (18.9,
49.8 (35.7,
57.7)
53.0)
18.9)
59.2)
31.1)
54.7)
1.68 (.85. 3.33)
1.84 (.93, 3.66)
1.07 (.54, 2.12)
8.43 (4.25. 16.72)
2.32 (1.17, 1.60)
3.37 (1.70, 6.68)
-.96
-.92
-.48
-.96
-.84
-.84
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED ANU PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1973)
MODELl TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIKEl 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
tOBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A*«A)
790.8
951.6
•160.8 (-309.8, -11.8)
-140.4 (-202.1, -77.7)
0.70 ( 0.35, 1.40)
0.60 (.385)
2. ev STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-48)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
i. BY METEOHCLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. HIND SPEED
<2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS t ft F
508,9
535.0
560.0
550.0
225.9
512.6
653.5
652.0
489.9
481.3
676.9
586.6
398.0
490.7
533.5
720.5
632.9
246.2
391.6
766.9
694.2
214.9
662.6
671.8
211.4
8.7
16.2
1.5
-140.5
-82.9
-22.3
121.0
-133.4
-42.2
275.0
-161.5
-192.9
375.2
389.3
-53.1,
-69.5,
•344.6,
•157.4,
-95.6,
3.3,
(-223.1,
(-202.6,
( 121.2,
(-274.3,
(-355.4,
( 311.2,
( 287.3,
89.5)
92.5)
63.6)
-6.4)
51.0)
236.7)
-03.7)
116.4)
426.6)
-88.7)
-30.4)
139.2)
491.4)
26.2
43.3
-67.2
-67.0
5.1
130.0
-156.0
-8.7
346.1
-219.6
-194.9
396.6
301.2
-22.6,
-65.0,
-300.6,
•152.3,
-56.5,
•52.0,
(-232.4,
(-112.3,
( 280.3,
(-269.5,
(-252.6,
( 357.1,
( 256.2,
94.1)
110.7)
60.3)
-6.4)
53.7)
162.4)
-96.2)
95.8)
379.7)
•62.5)
-77.7)
432.9)
363.8)
0.19
0.30
0.37
0.95
0.26
1.69
2.54
0.54
0.13
0.37
0.59
0.33
1249..0
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.20,
0.15,
0.19,
0.46,
0.13,
0.85,
1.26,
0.27,
0.07,
0.19,
0.30,
0.17,
0.76)
0.59)
0.73)
1.86)
0.51)
3.35)
5.05)
1.07)
0.26)
0.73)
t.ie)
0.66)
(630 .8 ,2473 .1 )
-0.40
-0.40
-0.32
0.40
-0.36
-0.52
0.64
-0.36
-0.64
0.52
0.60
-0.96
-1.00
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE *. COMPARISON OF >5 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OR LOCATION)
CLIF1Y CREEK (1975)
MODEL I TEM.8A
AVERAGING IIKE: 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
UAIA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M«*3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M»*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PHEO)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(CBS-PKEO)
(UG/M»«3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREOUEKCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPHEO)
(FRACTION)
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
476.3
«36.7
39,6 ( -41.4, 120.6)
90.6 ( 35.a, 112.3)
0.35 ( 0.18, 0.70) -0.56 (.385)
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A- 48)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION ft
3. BY MEIEORCLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. WIND SFEEO
<2.5 f/SEC
2.5 TO 5 P/5EC
>5 M/SEC
B, STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft b
CLASS C
CLASS (i
CLASS t 8 F
322.6
286.
315.
313.
125.
257.
316.2
410.5
306.1
226.3
359.0
365.5
196.9
231 .6
260.2
336.3
293,3
98,5
196,3
306.5
384.5
94.0
301.2
38b.5
171.1
3.0
91.0
26.4
-20.4
20.0
27.1
61.6
9.7
26.0
214.1
-72.9
-27.5
2M.4
193.5
03.2,
-20.7,
-125.3,
-25.9,
-10.7,
6.2,
( -41,9,
( -59.2,
( 147.2,
(-141.1,
(-114.0,
( 167.8,
( 145.9,
136.6)
73.5)
64.5)
6S.9)
64,9)
117.0)
61.3)
111.2)
281.0)
-8.7)
59,0)
261 ,0)
241.1)
105.0
18.8
-21.0
26.8
50,8
23.3
2.4
87.1
191.8
-66.9
-10.7
220.1
157.9
( 62.2,
( -1.0,
( -54.7,
( -27.3,
( 3.3,
( -5.7,
( -32.7,
( 22.2,
( 173.7,
(-121.2,
( -43.5,
( 170.1,
( 121.8,
132.2)
52.2)
63.1)
54,7)
72.1)
68.4)
32.3)
100.6)
23t.3)
-33.5)
39.6)
254.3)
183.9)
0.66
1.06
0.47
1.92
0.30
4.38
1.58
0.34
1.03
1.36
0.45
1.32
953.00
( 0.33,
( 0.53,
( 0.24,
( 0.97,
( 0.15,
( 2.21,
( 0.80,
( 0.17,
( 0.52,
( 0 ,b9,
( 0.23,
( 0.66,
(481.3 ,
I .30)
2.10)
0.93)
3.81)
0.59)
6.68)
3. 1«)
0.67)
?,05)
a . 7 c )
0.9C)
2.61)
1306.9 )
-0.64
-0.36
-0.28
-0.16
-0.56
-0.28
0.16
-0.52
-0,92
0.52
-0.16
-0.96
-t .00
.385)
.365)
.365)
.385)
.385)
.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CUFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL» TEM-8A AVERAGING TINE: 24 HOURS
NJ
Performance Measures
Data Sets
Average Observed
Value
Co
1. All stations/all
events (A - 4a)
126.
7
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Averages
f* t* — p
P ° \9
(M9/V ) (M9/«3)
80.2
46.5
(+15.2)
Bias
Difference
of Medians
M0 - Mp
(M9/B3)
42.0 (29.8, 54.3)
Variance Frequency Distribution
Comparison Comparison
It (CQ) - MCp)| max
so* /8p' (traction)
3.18
(1.60, 6.30)
-.84
(.385)
2. By station/all
events (A
Station
i Station
Station
i Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
97.
65.
78.
84.
34.
57.
4
4
1
5
9
5
44.5
45.7
57.2
57.0
16.4
36.5
52.9
19.7
20.9
27.5
18.5
21.0
(+15.1)
(+12.9)
(+19.3)
(+10.1)
(+7.5)
(+13.1)
47.6 (36.8, 59.2)
15.5 (7.4. 23.6)
13.1 (5.5. 29.0)
34.9 (16.9, 40.0)
22.0 (15.3, 25.6)
9.2 (5.3, 21.7)
3.33
3.86
1.93
1.27
.41
6.37
(1.68, 6.60)
(1.95, 7.66)
(.97, 3.83)
(.64, 2.51)
(.21, .82)
(3.21, 12.63)
-.84
-.84
-.48
-.64
-.68
-.40
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO? CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN T1HE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CKEEK (1976)
MODEL: TEM-SA
AVERAGING TIME! 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
* VALUE
(UG/»**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/f**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRFO)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOB8-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
i. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A
771.8
732.9
38.9 ( -46.Or 123.8)
91.0 ( 3.0, Ifll.3)
0.20 ( 0.10, 0.40) -0.48 (.385)
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. MIND SPEED
<2,5 K/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/8EC
>5 f/SEC
H. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS t * F
581.7
658.9
450.2
546.7
321.3
496.6
668.9
667.5
«5B. 5
541.4
631.4
672.4
3U3.5
364.
356.
443.
510.
245.
434.
711.
365.
152.
560.
630.
216.
62.
0
3
7
6
3
3
5
4
2
1
2
0
4
197.7
302.6
6.5
36.1
76.0
62.5
•42.6
262.1
306.3
-18.7
1.2
454.4
261.)
( 123.6,
( 224.2,
( -95.9,
( "39.1,
( -14.1,
( -27.1,
("136.7,
( 227.7,
( 223.0,
("115.4,
( -96.2,
( 393.6,
( 223.6,
271.8)
361.0)
106.9)
111.3)
166.1)
152.1)
53.5)
336.5)
38<*.6)
76.0)
98.6)
515.2)
33B.6)
218.6
357.6
85.4
63.7
38.2
64.6
•3.8
291.6
311.2
21.3
34.1
475.2
292.7
( 160.6,
( 223.3,
( 16.9,
( -2.8,
( 23.9,
( 15.3,
(-103.8,
( 236.0,
( 260.6,
( "50.8,
( -59.6,
( 416.2,
( 267.5,
271.6)
390.7)
93.1)
116.6)
llfc.O)
153.5)
57.7)
323.6)
339.6)
46.4)
99.6)
516.5)
317.2)
0.44
1.21
0.21
0.34
1.09
0.23
0.46
1.41
0.52
0.51
0.59
0.60
0.76
( 0.22,
( 0.61,
( 0.10,
( 0.17,
( 0.55,
( 0.12,
( 0.23,
( 0.71,
( 0.26,
( 0.26,
( 0.30,
( 0.30,
( 0.39,
0.66)
2.40)
0.41)
0.67)
2.16)
0.46)
0.91)
2.79)
1.04)
1.02)
1.16)
1.20)
1.52)
-0.76
-0.80
-0.56
-0.40
-0.44
-0.60
0.16
-0.96
-0.96
0.12
-0.16
•1.00
-0.92
(.385)
1.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 35 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME UR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (J976)
MODEL I TEM-8A
AVERAGING lIMEl 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DMA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M*»3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
480.9
333.5
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIftNS
(OB3-PREO) .
(UG/H**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OHS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBl'TION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPREO)
(FRACTION)
147.4 ( 93.6, 201.2)
150.6 ( 123.6, 202.7)
0.47 ( 0.24, 0.93) -0.88 (.385)
a. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. MIND SPEED
<2.5 M/SEC
2.5 10 5 M/SEC
>5 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E ft F
372.7
373.6
252.8
360.2
177.1
287.6
336.6
445.5
316.0
263.6
364.3
443.1
217.9
192.1
186.8
241.0
237.6
98.7
194.3
302.2
243.3
64.4
268.7
255.8
171.8
17.9
160.6
166.8
11. 8
122.6
78.4
93.5
36.4
202.2
231.6
-4.9
106.5 I
271.3 1
200.0 {
( 141.7,
( 141.0,
t -49.9,
( 69.6,
[ 35.9,
( 56.6,
[ -19.2,
i 160.4,
[ 165.3,
-65.7,
[ 60.8,
226.0,
[ 163.1,
219.5)
232.6)
73.5)
175.4)
120.9)
128.2)
92.0)
244.0)
277.9)
55.9)
156.2)
314.6)
236.9)
174.2
212.0
21.6
99.6
61.4
106.3
63.5
180.2
212.3
7.3 (
107.3 1
255.6 1
196.5 1
I 147.2,
i 141.9,
[ -0.9,
f 75.7,
[ 30.9,
( 67.6,
[ 14.8,
164.2,
[ 165.0,
-36.1,
63.6,
235.7,
155.1,
206.9)
221.9)
55.0)
142.7)
104.1)
129.3)
90.6)
229.3)
234.3)
53.0)
134.3)
302.9)
221.7)
1.79
1.96
0.36
1.65
2.44
0.60
0.41
1.3C
3.65
- 0.45
1.68 1
0.94 {
5.30 1
0.90,
0.99,
0.19,
0.83,
1.23,
0.30,
[ 0.21,
[ 0.65,
( 1.84,
0.23,
0.95,
0.47,
2.67,
3.55)
3.89)
0.76)
3.26)
4.65)
1.16)
0.81)
2.57)
7.23)
0.90)
3.73)
1.86)
10.51)
-0.68
-0.66
-0.44
-0.68
-0.52
-0.68
-0.36 (
-0.96 (
-0.96 (
-0.20 (
-0.66 (
-0.96 (
-0.96 (
.385)
.365)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.365)
.385)
.385)
.365)
.365)
.365)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OP 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL! TEM-8A AVERAGING TIMEi 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Average Observed
Value
Data Seta
Co
(M9/«
'»
Average
Predicted
Value
C
%H
Difference
of Averages
Co - Cp
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PHEOICTFD
802 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE ON LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL! MULTIMAX
AVERAGING TIMEt 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/K**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (*-4A) Tso.a
839.7
-IB.9 (-167.6, 70.0)
-54.0 (-122.6, -2.2)
1.85 ( 0.93, 1.67)
0.36 (.385)
2.
I
3.
BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 0
STATION 5
STATION 6
BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. HIND SPEED
<2.5 f/SEC
2.5 TO 5 K/3EC
>5 K/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E ft F
506.9
535.0
500.0
550.0
225.9
512.6
653.5
652.0
469.9
481.3
678.9
586.6
398.0
476.1
645.3
690.3
506.5
195.6
447.6
736.0
729.1
271.9
819.1
624.7
273.6
227.7
32.8
-110.3
-110. B
43.5
30.3
65.0
-82.5
-77.1
216.0
-337.8
54.2
313.0
170.3
-33.8,
-187.7,
-243.8,
-22.7,
-86.2,
-51.4,
(-179.9,
(-196.8,
( 162.1,
(-426.1,
( -52.3,
( 276.2,
( 66.9,
99.4)
-32.9)
23.2)
109.7)
146.8)
181.4)
69.2
-103.9
-135.3
33.3
159.1
54.5
( 22.3,
(-160.1,
(-208.3,
( -23.8,
( 45.6,
( -29.6,
92.0)
-30.3)
-35.4)
107.3)
165.5)
121.5)
0.46
0.45
1.65
1.60
0.09
1.79
( 0.24,
( 0.23,
( 0.83,
( 0.81,
( 0.05,
( 0.90,
0.94)
0.90)
3.27)
3.17)
0.18)
3.56)
-0.64
0.44
0.44
-0.28
-0.64
-0.32
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
14.9)
42.6)
273.9)
160.7)
349.8)
273.7)
-81.6 (-163.2, -31.4)
-58.8 (-124.3, -35.8)
164.5 ( 141.4, 249.0)
•296.5 (-381.6, -254.4)
-24.4 ( -55.5, 69.7)
275.1 ( 267.7, 337.B)
103.8 ( 46.9, 150.4)
1.5fc { 0.79, 3.09)
1.7? ( 0.87, 3.41)
7.34 ( 3.70, 10.56)
0.42 ( 0.21, 0.83)
7.27 ( 3.66, 14.42)
3.06 ( 1.54, 6.06)
31.60 (15.93, 62.68)
0.44 (.385)
",53 (.385)
•0.92 (.385)
0.92 (.385)
•0.28 (.385)
•1.00 (.385)
•0.64 (.385)
-------
TABU *. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED ANO PREDICTED
soa CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIPE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK tws)
MODEL» HULTIMAX
AVERAGING TIME! 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DAIA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/***3)
»
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M*«3)
UIFFERfcNCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/K**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FFREO)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) 476.3
401.7
74.6 ( 17.6, 131.6)
77.1 ( 31.9, 116.0)
1.08 ( 0.55, 2.15) -0.40 (.385)
2.
3.
BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4H)
STATION 1
SfATIUN 2
SfATION 3
SIAT1UN 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONU1TION (A-5)
A. NINO SPEED
<2.5 M/SEC
2.5 10 5 M/SEC
>5 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS ASH
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS ERF
322.6
286.6
315.9
313.3
125.6
?€J7,9
316.2
410.5
308.1
228.3
359.0
385.5
196.9
209.1
287.2
285.2
226.4
65.3
161.9
275.4
355.5
154. 0
354.4
306.1
192.0
100.0
113.5
-0.6
30.7
86.9
60.3
96.0
40.8
55.0
154.1
-126.1
52.9
193.5
96.9
( 74.3
( -65.6
C -40.4
( 36.0
( 11.2
( 34.9
( -26.3,
( 2.4,
( 102.0,
(-195.7,
( -4.6,
( 155.1,
( 46.4,
152.7)
64.4)
101.8)
137.0)
109.4)
157.1)
107.9)
107.6)
206.2)
-56.5)
110.4)
231.9)
147.4)
115.7
18.3
-30.0
103.2
94.3
52.6
59.4
58.1
111.4
-128.7
40.9
179.6
70.1
( 73.3,
( -18.1,
( -40.8,
( 49,1,
( 74.2,
( 17.3,
( 17.0,
( 8.2,
( 93.8,
(•183.6,
( 1.9,
( 143.6,
( 43.4,
144.1)
59.7)
56.7)
129.1)
108.8)
130.5)
89.4)
92.7)
160.0)
•77.7)
73.4)
218.3)
95.8)
1 .44
0.38
2.26
1.23
0.16
1.97
0.57
1.91
5.51
1.24
2.39
5.56
5.91
[ 0.73,
( 0.19,
[ 1.14,
( 0.62,
[ 0.08,
[ 0.99,
( 0,29,
( 0.96,
[ 2.7fl,
( 0.62,
( 1.20,
( 2. BO,
( 2.98,
2.86)
0.74)
4.48)
2.44)
0.31)
3.90)
1.12)
3.79)
10.93)
2.15)
4.74)
11.03)
11.72)
-0.64
-0.36
-0.20
-0.60
-0.80
-0.52
-0.52
-0.36
-0.92
0.64
-0.36
-0.96
-0.68
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SOj CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODELI HULTIHAX AVERAGING TIME! 24 HOURS
T
00
Performance
Data Sets
Average Observed
Value
Co
Bias
Average Predicted Difference
Value
CP
of_Averages
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
802 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OR LOCATION)
CLIMY CREEK (1976)
MODEL! MULTIMAX
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
DATA SETS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/k**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF CEDIANS
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PREO)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOB3-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
771.8
691.6
-119.8 (-193.a, -46.2)
•103.1 (-161.6r •30.4)
0.29 ( 0.14, 0.57)
0.44 (.385)
BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STA110N 5
STATION 6
3. BY METEOHCLOGICAL
CONDITION (A. 5)
A. nINO SPEED
<2.5 K/SEC
2.5 TO 5 H/SEC
>5 M/SEC
8. SIAHILITY GROUP
CLASS A ft B
CLASS C
CLASS I)
CLASS E S F
581.7
ft5fl.9
450.2
546.7
321.3
496.8
666.9
667.5
456.5
541.4
631.4
672.4
343.5
447.5
586.0
767.1
560.7
168.9
521.0
822.9
669.6
321.9
890.0
615.1
272.7
247.2
134.2
72.9
-316.9
-14.0
132.4
-27.2
-154.0
-22.1
136.6
-348.6
16.3
399.7
96.3
( 79.6,
( -15.1,
(-393.4,
( -76.1,
( -4.4,
(-110.1,
(-247.3,
( -"iS. 2,
( 62. ft,
(-434,8,
( -47.3,
( 356.7,
( 52.8,
166.6)
160.9)
-240.4)
46.1)
269.2)
55.7)
•60.7)
49.0)
210.4)
-262.4)
79.9)
440.7)
139.8)
113.6
110.1
266.1
2.5
156.6
-37.5
( 72
( 6
(-404
( -61
( 124
( -61
.0,
.4,
.9,
.3,
.4,
.5,
161.
169.
-226.
52.
227.
62.
1)
4)
1)
4)
6)
1)
1.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
30 I
77 I
43 I
56 I
30 I
26 I
[ 0.66,
! 0.39,
[ 0.22,
[ 0.29,
[ 0.15,
[ 0.14,
2.
1.
0.
1.
0.
0.
58)
52)
66)
15)
59)
56)
-0.64
-0.36
0.92
-0.16
-0.60
-0.32
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
•123.9 (-219.8, -59.1)
3.7 ( -56.0, 44.2)
139.3 ( 111.0, 166.2)
•367.8 (-414.6, -275.5)
-22.7 ( -75.5, 76.6)
397.2 ( 351.2, 414.9)
75.6 ( 56.6, 107.7)
0.50 ( 0.25, 0
0.52 ( 0.26, 1.03)
0.77 ( 0.39, 1.53)
0.74 ( 0.37, 1 .«8)
7.11 ( 3.58, 14.11)
5.28 ( 2.66, 10.47)
3.23 ( 1.63, 6.41)
0.04 (.385)
0.16 (.385)
•0.84 (.385)
0.84 (.365)
0.40 (.365)
•1.00 (.385)
•0.60 (.365)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
30? CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OR LOCATIOM
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL I MULTIMAX
AVERAGING TIMES 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/K*«3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M«*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OB8-PREO)
(U6/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PREO)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FFRED)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) 460.9 394.7
86.2 ( 42.0, 130.4)
64.4 ( 53.5, 127.4)
0.69 ( 0.45, 1.76) -0.64 (.365)
2.
^
o
3.
BY STA1ION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. MIND SPEED
<2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5 M/SEC
>5 K/StC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS ABU
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS t ft F
372.7
373.6
252.8
360.2
177.1
287.6
336.6
445.5
316.0
263.6
364.3
443.1
217.9
225.6
230.0
305.8
240.4
72.3
206.2
296.6
380.3
169. C
357.3
319.4
206.7
111.6
147.1
143.6
-53.0
119.6
104.8
61.6
40.0
65.2
117. 0
-93.5
44.9
236.4
106.3
106.2,
91.6,
-109.3,
72.3,
43.6,
31.7,
( -0.3,
( 17.6,
( 100. B,
(-144.3,
( -2.5,
( 203.4,
( 64.6,
168.0)
195.6)
3.3)
167.3)
165.8)
131.5)
BO. 3)
112.8)
193.2)
-42.7)
92.3)
269.4)
148.0)
159.2
"5.5
-40.2
89.5
120.4
110.2
70.3
45.8
130.3
-99.2
38.8
218.0
105.0
( 114.9,
C 96.9,
( -61.7,
( 69.9,
( 86.1,
( 40.3,
( 1.2,
( 30.7,
( 99.3,
(-139.0,
( -2.5,
( 192.1,
( 72.2,
176.6)
1AS.1)
•1.1)
131.9)
152.6)
150.0)
76.1)
99.7)
158.4)
-43.1)
70.6)
252.9)
131.1)
1.39
1.05 (
0.50 (
3.47 1
0.53 1
0.22
1.22
0.77
3.69
0.80
1.93
5.34
1.B7
[ 0.70,
0.53,
0.25,
1.75,
0.27,
0.11,
t 0.62,
[ 0.39,
( 1.66,
C 0.40,
( 0.97,
( 2.69,
( 0.94,
2.75)
2.09)
1.00)
6.89)
1.05)
0.44)
2. 43)
1.53)
7.33)
1.59)
3.83)
10.60)
3.71)
-0.76
-O.flO
0.32
-0.64
-0.60
-0.60
-0.36
-0.60
-0.60
0.56
-0.32
-1.00
0.84
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFFY CREEK (1976) MODELt MULTIMAX AVERAGING TIMEt 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Data Seta
Average Observed
Value
C0
(M9/*1 »
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Aver«9eB
Cp Co - Cp
(M9/V ) (M9/«3)
Bias
Difference
ol Medians
M0 - Hp
(Ii9/»3l
Variance
Comparison
80l/8pl
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
U(C0) - t(Cp)) man
(traction)
1. All stations/all
events (A
- 4a)
125.3
84.7
40.6
(±13.4)
40.9 (34.9,
50.8)
.52
(.26,
1.04)
-.84
(.385)
2. By station/all
events (A
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
- 4b)
1
2
3
4
5
6
96.4
84. B
64.3
107.7
40.1
71.8
51.0
41.6
(1.8
58.2
9.8
26.8
45.4
43.2
2.5
49.5
30.3
45.0
(±11.5)
(+10.9)
(+17.7)
(±12.5)
(+10.1)
(+9.9)
52.4 (37.4.
48.2 (34.9,
-4.3 (-9.4,
49.3 (33.7,
32.1 (24.3,
48.1 (35.2,
56.5)
54.2)
16.7)
57.8)
34.3)
54.5)
.80
.86
.50
4.04
1.22
1.62
.40,
.43,
.25,
2.03,
.62,
.62,
1.59)
1.70)
.99)
8.01)
2.42)
3.21)
-.84
-.84
-.36-
-.84
-.80
-.88
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
-------
APPENDIX B
Statistics for All Events
-------
Appendix B: Statistics for All Events
In the tables which follow, model performance statistics are presented
for all events with either the predicted or the observed concentration above a
threshold value. As in the previous section, each table contains the results
for one model, one calendar year of Clifty Creek data, and one averaging time.
In each table, results are first presented basiid on comparisons of the highest
observed and predicted concentration values event-by-event, regardless of location.
Results are then presented for observed and predicted concentration values paired
in time and location, including results for all stations combined, for each
individual monitoring station, and for subsets of events based on meteorological
conditions. As noted previously, subsets by meteorology were employed only for
1-hour and 3-hour averaging times.
In establishing the sets of observed and predicted concentration data, a
small threshold concentration was used to eliminate events when neither the
observed nor the predicted impact at a monitoring station were significant. The
threshold value for 1-hour and 3-hour average concentrations was 25 ug/m3. For
24-hour average values, the threshold was 5 yg/m3.
Each table of results is presented in two parts, due to the large number
of performance measures recommended for these data sets. One part provides
results based on statistics appropriate to paired data. The other part gives
results obtained for the same data sets using statistics appropriate for unpaired data.
For logistical convenience, the latter results are presented as Part 1, and the
former as Part 2.
In Part 1, the first column prese its the number of events (or data pairs) in
each data set. The second and third columns present, respectively, the average
observed and average predicted concentration values. The fourth column presents
B-2
-------
the difference between the observed and predicted averages, followed in
parentheses by a 95 percent confidence interval calculated with a two-sample
t test. The fifth column (variance comparison) presents the ratio of the observed
variance divided by the predicted variance, with 95 percent confidence bounds in
parentheses as calculated by an F test.
The frequency distribution comparison (sixth column) is equivalent to the
performance measure previously described in Section A. The cumulative frequency
distribution of observed values is compared to the distribution of predicted
values. The maximum fractional difference is listed; a positive difference
implies model overprediction. The value in parentheses is the maximum difference
significant at a 95 percent confidence level, as given by the K-S test.
In Part 2, the number of events (i.e., data pairs) is repeated in the first
coJumn. The average difference between observed and predicted values is presented
in the second column. In parentheses, the 95 percent confidence interval calcu-
lated with a one-sample t test is given. The confidence intervals are adjusted
for the serial correlation of residual values, using the calculated lag-one
autocorrelation coefficient. The confidence intervals were adjusted by a factor
of f TZ/ ' where r represents the autocorrelation coefficient. For 1-hour
average residuals, values of r ranged between +0.3 and +0.5. For 3-hour average
residuals, r was generally less than 0.3 while for 24-hour average residuals, r
was 0.2 or less. (No adjustment was made for subsets based on meteorological
conditions, since the time sequence of events is disrupted by the selection process.)
The fraction of positive residuals is presented in the third column. This
performance measure indicates thu fraction of observed-predicted data pairs for
which the observed concentration value is larger than the predicted value. In
the fourth column, the variance of the residuals is presented, with 95 percent
confidence bounds (from an ? test) in parentheses. The gross variability of the
residuals (i.e., the average squared residual) is given next, followed by the
average absolute residual.
B-3
-------
The Pearson correlation coefficient of observed and predicted concentration
values is presented in the seventh column. In parentheses, 95 percent confidence
bounds on the correlation coefficient are listed, as calculated with the Fisher
z test. Finally, the frequency distribution of residual values is compared to
a normal frequency distribution with the same mean and variance. The maximum
difference between the actual distribution and the normal distribution is presented.
A positive difference indicates that the fraction of residuals less than or equal
to a given value is larger than the fraction of residuals at that same values
for the normal distribution. In parentheses, the maximum difference significant
at a 95 percent confidence level (as given by the K-S test) is listed.
B-4
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-Bi-jiVttO (VA1RKD IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: MPTER AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
T
• Performance Measures -
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-oy-eveiit (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
?. AI> ~™,entr*ttons.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
v Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
< 2 . 5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
> 5 ni/sec
o. stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class U
Class K 6 F
Number
of
Events
3576
5561
1357
825
1037
995
694
653
2271
2819
471
565
974
2899
1123
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value of_Averages
GO Cp Co - Cp
(jig/Bf ) (M9/nr I (liq/mj>
115.1
93.2
95.3
102.9
92.0
100.1
59.6
103.5
88.3
91.2
128.3
101.9
111.4
98.5
59.2
80
56
53
77
56
93
13
28
44
59
98
136
116
34
21
.2
.7
.1
.2
.7
.3
.5
.2
.9
.2
.5
.9
.9
.5
.3
34.9
36.5
42.2
25.7
35.3
6.8
46.1
75.3
43.4
32.0
29.8
-35.0
-5.5
64.0
37.9
(±7.1)
(±4.9)
(±6.1)
(+10.8)
(+ 9.1)
(+ 8.6)
(+5.8)
(± 8.7)
(+5.2)
(+4.B)
(±13.8)
(±16.5)
(+11.6)
(±3.6)
(±4.4)
• Unpaired Compai isons
Variance
Comparison
S a /S l
0.51
0.55
0.75
0.40
0.45
0.57
0.-26
1.50
0.60
0.49
0.69
0.24
0.42
1.22
1.47
(0.46,
(u.bo,
(0.68,
(0.36,
(0.40,
(0.52,
(0.23,
(1.34,
(0.55,
(0.44,
(0.61,
(0.21,
(0.30,
(1.11,
(1.33,
0.56)
0.61)
0.82)
0.44)
0.50)
0.64)
0.29)
1.67)
0.67)
0.54)
0.78)
0.27)
0.46)
1.34)
1.63)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(t (C0) - t (Cp) 1 max
(traction)
-0.62
-0.66
-0.60
-0.64
-0.74
-0.36
-0.94
-0.84
-0.70
-0.63
-0.43
-0.40
-0. 47
-U.72
-U.7U
<.OJ2,
(.026)
(.037)
(.047)
(.042)
(.043)
(.052)
(.053)
(.029)
(.02b)
(.OOJ)
(.007)
(.044)
(.025)
(.041)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODEL: HPTER AVERAGING TIME: i HOUR
o\
, , „ Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
3576
Bias
Average
Difference
Cp) (ug/n1)'
0.79 38870 (37134, 40742)
Gross
Variability
fog/a* )'
40079
Average Correlation
Absolute Coetficient
Difference
(pg/rf )
131.0 0.18 (0.15, 0.21)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
It (d) - tn)) max
(fraction)
-0.24 (.032)
2. All concentrations!
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
5561
36.5 (4 6.7)
O.B2
33407 (32202, 3468R)
34731
118.0
0.03 (0.00, 0.06)
-0.27 (.026)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E & F
1357
825
1037
995
694
653
2271
2819
471
565
974
2899
1123
42.2 (114.4)
25.6 (*18.7)
35.3 (417.3)
6.8 (416.8)
46.1 (4 8.5)
75.3 (418.2)
43.4 (4 9.8)
32.0 (4 9.4)
29.8 (±31.4)
-34.9 (429.4)
- 5.5 (422.0)
63.9 (4 7.2)
37.9 (410.6)
0.80
0.81
0.85
0.65
0.97
0.91
0.86
0.80
0.71
0.68
0.69
0.86
0.88
29136
46163
42557
38882
10651
24556
31190
32743
47845
75813
70926
18288
12805
(27070.
(42033,
(39134,
(35694,
(9619,
(22109,
(29458,
(31103,
(42310,
(67739,
(65052.
(17384,
(11813,
31472)
50998)
46496)
42562)
11877)
27478)
33094)
34528)
54665)
85582)
77717)
19271)
13941)
30891
46765
43762
38889
12757
30185
33061
33754
48632
76897
70883
22309
14230
122.0
134.9
118.9
137.9
66.7
111.9
113.4
114.7
160.5
176.0
172.2
105.6
74.3
-0.09 (-0.14,
0.09 ( 0.02,
0.05 (-0.01,
-0.02 (-0.08,
0.14 (0.06,
0.06 (-0.02,
0.02 (-0.02,
0.04 ( 0.00,
-0.02 ( 0.11.
-0.07 (-0.02,
-0.05 (-0.11,
0.05 ( 0.01,
-0.12 (-0.18,
-0.04)
o.is;
0.11)
0.04)
0.21)
0.13)
0.06)
0.07)
0.07)
0.15)
0.02)
0.09)
-0.06)
-0.29
-0.29
-0.31
-0.16
-0.38
-0.27
-O.JO
-0.26
-0.18
-0.24
-0.21
-0.2J
-0.31
.052)
.067)
.060)
.061)
.073)
(.075)
(.040)
(.036)
(.089)
(.081)
(.062)
(.036)
(.057)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELS MPTER AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
V
Performance Measures •
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2 ,
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station b
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 in/sec
2.5 to 5 m/ sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class U
Class E i F
Number
of
Events
1271
2139
532
335
396
398
231
247
595
1269
275
203
408
1162
366
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value of Averages
C0 Cp C0 - Cp
(pg/w1 ) (pg/rf ) (pg/m3)
94.
76.
78.
80.
76.
78.
52.
85.
73.
73.
95.
76.
90.
78.
52.
8
3
5
0
5
8
2
1
4
4
9
1
5
8
9
65.3
47.5
44.3
62.4
47.5
73.7
13.3
24.1
33.0
49.5
69.8
103.7
78.5
36.1
18.1
29.5
28.8
34.2
17.6
29.0
5.1
38.9
61.0
40.4
23.9
26.1
-27.6
12.0
42.7
34.8
(+8.0)
(+5.3)
(+ 9.6)
(+12.8)
(7l3.8)
(+12.5)
<+ 9.3)
(+13.2)
(+ 9.2)
(+6.8)
(±16.6)
(+23.4)
(+15.5)
(+6.0)
(+7.9)
- Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Compar xson
0.65
0.70
0.98
0.49
0.58
0.79
0.30
1.83
0.87
0.61
0.88
0.37
0.57
1.07
1.63
(0.58,
(0.63,
(0.86,
(0.40,
(0.48,
(0.66,
(0.24,
(1.46,
(0.76,
(0.55,
(0.70,
(0.29,
(0.48,
(0.96,
(1.34,
0.72)
0.78)
1.13)
0.60)
0.70)
0.95)
0.37)
2.28)
1.00)
0.68)
1.09)
0.46)
0.69)
1.20)
1.98)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
lf(C0) - f(Cp)| max
(traction)
-0.54
-0.56
-0.49
-U.53
-0.67
-0.21
-0.92
-0.81
-0.64
-0.55
-U.42
-0.33
-0.42
-0.61
-0.71
(.054)
(.042)
(.083)
(.105)
(.097)
(.096)
(.127)
(.122)
(-079)
(.054)
(.lib)
(.135)
(.095)
(.056)
(.101)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: MPTER
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 1271
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
(ug/m'V
29.5 (+9.2)
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
Cp) (pg/rf )'
0.74 15307 (14188, 16578)
Gross
Variability
(pg/m* )'
16164
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
tog/in1 )
90.9 0.28 (0.23, 0.33)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
(f(d) - fn)| max
(fraction)
-0.19 (.054)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
2139
28.8 (+6.5)
0.76
14070 (13266, 14957)
14693
86.3
0.09 (0.04, 0.13)
-0.21 (.042)
3. All concentrations.
Cd by station (B-l)
' Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
< 2 . 5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E 4 F
532
335
396
398
231
247
595
1269
275
203
408
1162
366
34.2 (.+14. 3)
17.5 (+16.1)
28.9 (+16.6)
5.1 (+14.5)
38.9 (+10.6)
61.1 (118.2)
40.4 (+11.1)
24.0 (+ 8.7)
26.1 (+19.9)
-27.6 (+24.8)
12.0 (+18.6)
42.7 (+ 7.6)
34.8 (+.12.2)
0.73
0.75
0.81
0.56
0.95
0.89
0.81
0.75
0.69
0.59
0.65
0.80
0.84
13896 (12375,
17518 (15156,
17933 (15690,
14620 (12795,
4302 ( 3619,
9801 ( 8290,
12293 (11014,
14252 (13209,
16768 (14301,
25432 (21161,
24912 (21837,
9795 ( 9048,
6673 ( 5808,
15747)
20544)
20751)
16911)
5223)
11819)
13832)
15436)
20012)
31311)
28761)
10648)
7769)
15041
17773
18725
14608
5794
13491
13906
14815
17386
26067
24995
11606
7867
90.7
90.7
90.6
91.8
55.0
84.5
84.3
84.9
97.1
113.2
112.2
80.3
61.7
-0.09 (-0.17,
0.18 ( O.OB,
0.09 (-0.01,
0.10 ( 0.00,
0.20 ( 0.07,
0.12 ( 0.00,
0.06 (-0.02,
0.07 ( 0.01,
0.15 ( 0.03,
0.13 (-0.01,
0.02 (-0.07,
0.11 ( 0.05,
-0.13 (-0.23,
0.00)
0.29)
0.19)
0.19)
0.32)
0.24)
0.14)
0.12)
0.26)
0.26)
0.1-2)
0.16)
-0.02)
-0.16 (.083)
-0.23 (.105)
-0.03 (.097)
-0.07 (.0<»6)
-0.35 (.127)
-0.22 (.122)
-0.22
-0.22
-0.14
-0.16
-0.16
-0.19
-O.^b
.079)
.054)
.116)
.13b)
.095)
.056)
.101)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: MPTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
vo
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
*>
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event -by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
335
Average Observed Average Predicted
Value Value
Co Cp
(vq/ar ) (vq/*f )
38.5 25.0
Difference
of _Ave rages
p — p
3?
13.5 (jf!6.7)
Variance
Comparison
0.90 (0.50, 1.63)
Frequency Distribution
Compar ison
U(C0) - t(Cp)| max
(traction)
-0.46 (.J32)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1115
22.6
11.7
10.9 (+2.0)
1.11 (0.99, 1.24)
-0.62 (.05«)
J. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
211
184
194
187
206
133
29.0
21. 5
24.4
24.7
13.7
22.2
13.9
14.0
12.9
20.4
1.9
5.7
15.1
7.5
11.5
4.3
11.8
16.5
(+5.2)
(+5.0)
(+5.4)
(+5.8)
(+1.9)
(+4.6)
2.00
0.72
0.95
0.88
0.89
2.57
(1.59,
(0.57,
(0.75,
(0.69,
(0.70,
(1.92,
2.51)
0.93)
1.20)
1.12)
1.12)
3.44)
-0.44
-0.55
-0.70
-0.39
-0.94
-0.77
(.132)
(.142)
(.138)
(.141)
(.134)
(.107)
-------
TABLE D. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODEL: MPTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 335
Average
Difference
"IT - p >
"•o T>'
(H9/V)
13.5 (+4.4)
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
0.76 1236 (1069, 1450)
Gross
Variability
(uu/ra1)1
1414
Average Correlation
Absolute Coetrtcient
Difference
(ng/nr1)
27.3 0.48 (0.39, 0.56)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
It Id) - tn)J max
(fraction)
-0.12 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1115
10.9 (+2.0)
0.8.1
780 ( 719, 849)
899
20.2
0.34 (0.28, 0.39)
-0.18 (.058)
. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
211
184
194
187
206
103
15.0 (+6.4)
7.5 (+3.9)
11.5 (+5.6)
4.3 (74.4)
11.8 (+1.8)
16.4 (+5.0)
0.75
0.79
O.R1
0.66
0.97
0.88
1271
630
1057
823
129
645
(1061,
( 520,
( 876,
( 680,
( 107,
( 515,
1558)
784)
1308)
1023)
159)
838)
1491
682
1183
838
267
910
26.4
18.7
22.5
19.4
13.4
21.1
0.14
0.48
0.28
0.49
0.35
0.11
(0.01,
(0.36,
(0.14,
(0.37,
(0.22,
(-0.06
0.27)
0.58)
0.40)
0.59)
0.46)
, 0.27)
0.12
-0.21
-0.21
0.15
-0.25
-0.16
(.132)
(.142)
(.138)
(.141)
(.1J4)
(.167)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON UP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EV8NT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFFY CREEK (1976) MODEL: MPTER AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Performance Measures -
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
1 Station 3
i Station 4
' Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
< 2.5 in/sec
2.5 to 5 »/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E I I
Number
of
Events
4127
6523
1515
1202
1114
1331
485
876
2184
3873
466
544
1229
3513
1237
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value of_Avera_geB
Co Cp Co - Cp
(ng/V ) (ng/rf ) (ng/»3)
127.7
99.1
100.0
102.9
85.9
102.4
78.2
115.9
92.0
100.7
119.1
113.2
111.1
107.0
58.6
81.8
57
57
44
74
91
19
23
53
54
104
141
118
36
19
.4
.4
.0
.1
.4
.2
.8
.2
.1
.0
.2
.0
.4
.7
45. 9
41.8
42.6
58.9
11.8
11.0
59.0
92.1
38.9
46.6
15.1
-28.0
-6.9
70.6
38.9
(+6.7)
(±4.5)
(+8.7)
(+10.7)
(+13.2)
(+10.4)
(+12.3)
(+9.8)
(+8.0)
(+5.6)
(+20.0)
(+24.9)
(+14.2)
(+4.8)
(+5.2)
- Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
ConpariEon
S0l/Sp'
0.55
0.61
0.94
0.86
0.21
0.64
0.63
1.17
0.53
0.69
0.47
0.23
0.37
1.65
O.B4
(0.50,
(0.55,
(0.84,
(0.77,
(0.19,
(0.57,
(0.54,
(1.02,
(0.46,
(0.63,
(0.40,
(0.20,
(0.33,
(1.50,
(0.75,
0.61)
0.67)
1.05)
0.96)
0.24)
0.72)
0.73)
1.33)
0.59)
0.76)
0.55)
0.26)
0.41)
1.82)
0.94)
Frequency Distribution
Cornea r i son
|f(C0) - MC^n max
(fraction)
-0.60
-0.63
-0.60
-O.V5
-0.60
-0.35
-0.91
-0.89
-0.71
-0.61
-0.35
-0.43
-0.46
-O.Gb
-U.»l
(.030)
(.024)
(.049)
(.USS)
(.058)
(.053)
(.087)
(.065)
(.041)
(.031)
(.069)
(.082)
(-055)
(.032)
(.055)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: MPTER AVERAGING TIME: i HOUR
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 4127
Averaqe
Difference
(Co - Cp)
fog/-1)
45.9 (j+8.9)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
Cp)
0.78
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
dig/"1 )'
39877 (38215, 41660)
Gross
Variability
(Mg/m1 )'
41976
Averaqe Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(wg/rf )
139.4 0.17 (0.14, 0.20)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
If (d) - fn)] wax
(fraction)
-0.22 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
. (B-3)
6523
41.8 (±6.9)
0.80
36082 (34877, 37356)
37822
127.2
-0.04 (-0.06, -0.02)
-0.25 (.024)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 a/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 n/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E t, F
1515
1202
1114
1331
485
876
2184
3873
466
544
1229
3513
1237
42.6 (+15.8)
58.9 (+14.6)
11.8 (4-19.2)
11.0 (+17.0)
59.0 (+13.4)
92.1 (+12.1)
38.9 (+11.5)
46.6 1+9.0)
15.1 (£30.1)
-28.0 (4;35.0)
-6.9 (+21.7)
70.6 (+7.6)
38.9 (+9.4)
0.78
0.87
0.78
0.64
0.95
0.93
0.83
0.80
0.65
0.66
0.68
0.83
0.89
33402 (31154,
35717 (33036,
50767 (46818,
41163 (38218,
16558 (14668,
20138 (18386,
38587 (36404,
33071 (31650,
48609 (42959,
91880 (81925,
70489 (65253,
22088 (21093,
35927)
38772)
55289)
44497)
18880)
22180)
40992)
34599)
55580)
103970)
76446)
23162)
10366 (9598, 11239)
35197
39158
50860
41253
20007
28598
40079
35263
48734
92494
70480
27068
11874
131.5
122.3
129.4
143.6
86.3
121.7
125.1
125.4
152.5
200.0
178.3
116.9
74.1
-0.11 (-0.16,
-0.01 (-0.07,
-0.01 (-0.07,
-0.10 (-0.15,
0. 14 iu ,\i j.
0.08 (0.01,
-0.05 (-0.09,
-0.03 (-0.06,
-0.03 (-0.12,
-0.06 (-0.14,
-0.10 (-0.16,
-0.03 (-0.06,
-0.18 (-0.23,
-0.06)
0.05)
0.05)
-0.05)
0.23)
0.15)
-0.01)
0.00)
0.06)
0.02)
-0.04)
0.00}
-0.13)
-0.22
-0.29
-0.27
-0.14
-0.34
-0.25
-0.30
-0.23
-0.14
-0.22
-0.21
-0.19
-0.33
(.049)
(.055)
(.058)
(.053)
(.087)
(.065)
(-041)
(.031)
(.089)
(.082)
(.055)
(.032)
(.055)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVEKT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: MPTER AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Data Sets
Average Observed
Number Value
of C
Events (U9/RT )
Average Predicted
Value
CP
)
Difference
of_Averages
Pertormance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Compactson
Frequency Ois.tr i but ion
Comparison
tf(C0) - r(Cp)l max
(traction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
1478
105.6
66.0
39.5 (+7.5)
0.72 (0.64, 0.81)
-0.54 (.050)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3) .
2525
81.6
48.2
33.5 (+4.9)
0.80 (0.72, 0.89)
-0.52 (.038)
3. All r'^icentratiou^,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
< 2 . 5 «i/sec
2.5 to 5 ro/sec
>5 n/ sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E & F
598
460
428
526
172
341
591
1533
401
209
476
1394
446
81.8
86.7
70.8
82.6
66.0
94.5
76.0
81.5
90.5
89.6
87.0
87.9
52.7
47
37
63
73
17
20
42
46
61
101
80
39
16
.7
.4
.3
.9
.9
.2
.6
.8
.8
.7
.7
.4
.0
34.1
49.3
7.6
8.7
48.1
74.4
33.4
34.7
28.7
-12.1
6.3
48.5
36.6
(+9.9)
(+11.4)
(+13.8)
(+11.2)
( + 14.2)
(+10.5)
(+9.9)
1+6.4)
(+12.3)
(+24.3)
(+14.0)
(+5.9)
(+6.6)
1.20
1.13
0.25
1.01
0.76
1.46
0.76
0.60
0.87
0.35
0.55
1.43
1.14
(1.04,
(0.97,
(0.21,
(0.88,
(0.59,
(1.13,
(0.66,
(0.71,
(0.73,
(0.28,
(0.47,
(1.28.
(0.97,
1.38)
1.32)
0.30)
1.16)
0.98)
1.88)
0.87)
0.90)
1.04)
0.44)
0.64)
1.60)
1.35)
-0.48
-0.68
-0.52
-0.25
-0.86
-0.84
-0.60
-0.55
-0.41
-0.37
-0. JU
-0.56
-0.77
(.079)
(.090)
(.093)
(.084)
(.147)
(.104)
U07y>
(.049)
(.uyfei
(.133)
(.UUB)
(.052)
(.09))
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFFY CREEK (1976) MODEL: HPTER AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Number
of
Data Seta Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 1478
Average
Difference
39.5 (±8.7)
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(C0> Cp) (vg/af)'
0.75 16486 (15363, 17748)
Gross
Variability
(wg/rf )'
18037
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
Uig/m1)
97.8 0.24 (0.19, 0.29)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
If(d) - fn)) max
(fraction)
-0.17 (.050)
2. All concentrations)
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
2525
33.5 (±6.6)
0.75
16400 (15534, 17347)
17513
94.4
-0.02 (-0.06, 0.02)
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.Sin/sec 591 33.4 (112.7) 0.78
2.5 to 5 m/sec 1533 34.7 (+8.8) 0.75
>5 w/sec 401 28.7 (±17.1) 0.68
b. Stability Group
Class A fc B 209 -12.1 (+31.3) 0.60
Class C 476 6.3 (±19.4) 0.64
Class D 1394 48.5 (±8.0) 0.77
Class E (, f 446 36.6 (+9.4) 0.87
16306 (14605, 18356) 17393
16537 (15430, 17779) 17731
16069 (14070, 18576) 16835
32695 (27273, 40123) 32684
25801 (22831, 29457) 25787
13282 (12352, 14332) 15628
6135 (5408, 7037) 7464
94,
94.
95.
130.4
115.7
91.9
62.9
-0.07 (-0.15, 0.01)
-0.02 (-0.07, 0.03)
-0.02 (-0.12, 0.08)
-0.02 (-0.16, 0.12)
-0.07 (-0.16, 0.02)
-0.04 (-0.09, 0.01)
-0.21 (-0.30, -0.12)
-0.19 (.038)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
598
460
428
526
172
341
34.1
49.3
7.6
8.7
48.1
74.4
(±15.2)
(+12.6)
(+20.1)
(+14.8)
(+11.4)
(±11.2)
0.71
0.84
0.72
0.56
0.91
0.93
17567
14856
21641
18280
6357
8322
(15744, 19761)
(13119, 17002)
(19027, 24896)
(16269, 20731)
(5211, 7980)
(7209, 9745)
18698
17249
21648
18321
8634
13831
100.2
91.7
97.0
98.9
67.6
91.5
-0.15 (-0.23, -0.07)
0.05 (-0.04, 0.14)
-0.03 (-0.12, 0.07)
-0.07 (-0.15, 0.02)
0.29 (0.15, 0.42)
0.16 (0.05, 0.26)
-0.16
-0.22
-0.23
0.09
-0.29
0.21
.079)
.090)
.093)
.004)
.147)
.104)
-0.23 (.079)
-0.19 (.049)
-0.11 (.096)
-0.15 (.133)
-0.17 (.088)
-0.15 (.052)
-0.28 (.091)
-------
TABLE B. (PART I) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BV-EVBNT (PAIRED IN TIKE)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976J
MODELt MPTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Unpaired
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
355
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value of_Averages
o **p o ~ p
dig/m* ) (M9/W ) (|ig/n>3)
46.0 28.0 18.0 (.+5.2)
Variance
Comparison
s0'/V
0.79 (0.65, 0.96)
Comparisons
Frequency Distribution
Compa r i son
[1 (C0) - t (Cp) ) max
(traction)
-0.41 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
1165
26.2
13.5
12.7 (+2.1)
1.05 (0.94, 1.18)
-0.56 (.056)
3.
All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
T
M
Ul
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
245
233
188
215
122
162
28.7
26.3
23.9
29.5
15.8
28.3
14.9
9.5
18.0
24.3
3.2
5.0
13.7
16.8
5.8
5.2
12.6
23.3
(+4.8)
(+4.1)
(+5.9)
(+6.2)
(+3.5)
(+4.0)
1.32 (1.06,
1.65 (1.32,
0.36 (0.28,
1.21 (0.96,
1.66 (1.23,
3.91 (2.98,
1.65)
2.06)
0.46)
1.52)
2.24)
5.12)
-0.50
-0.65
-0.54
-0.29
-0.87
-U.77
(.12J)
(.126)
(.140)
(.131)
(.174)
(.151)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CI.TT: cr?
(1976)
HODEL: HPTER
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
355
Average
Difference
(Cb -Cp)
Cp) (ug/rf)1 fog/"1)1 (yg/i»>>
0.78 1314 (1141, 1534) 1634 29.9 0.49 (0.41, 0.57)
Normality Test
lf(d) - fn)l max
(traction)
-0.11 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
1165
12.7 (±2.1)
O.BO
962 (889, 1046)
1123
23.2
0.29 (0.24, 0.34)
-0.17 (.056)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
245
233
188
215
122
162
13.7 (+5.2)
16. 8 (+3.8}
5.8 (+6.4)
5.2 (+4.6)
12.6 (+2.5)
23.3 (+3.9)
0.76
0.88
0.76
0.64
0.92
0.92
1251
675
1411
1094
187
588
(1057, 1510)
(568, 819)
(1166, 1752)
(915, 1338)
(148, 246)
(479, 744)
1434
953
1438
1115
345
1126
26.2
22.3
25.4
22.5
13.7
25.4
0.14
0.34
0.17
0.49
0.52
0.16
(0.01,
(0.22,
(0.03,
(0.38,
(0.38,
(0.01,
0.26)
0.45)
0.31)
0.59)
0.64)
0.31)
0.13
-0.16
-0.23
0.13
-0.20
-0.13
(.123)
(.126)
(-140)
(.131)
(.174)
(.151)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Average Observed
Number Value
of C0
Events (vg/tf }
Average Predicted
Value
CP
(Kg/in1 )
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
o£_Averagea
Variance
Comparison
Frequency UISILluutlon
Comparison
|t(C0) - t (C^) ] max
iliaction)
1. Highest concentration,
cvent-by-event (A-l)
3643
113.1
82.1
31.0 (+12.9)
0.50 (0.45, 0.55)
-0,54 (.UJ2)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
5681
91.3
58.1
33.2 (+4.8)
0.54 (0.49, 0.60)
-0.59 (.026)
¥
H-1
--J
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
< 2 . 5 in/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
> 5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class I)
Class E i F
1344
863
1080
998
698
698
2395
2807
479
594
1014
3056
1017
96.2
98.5
88. 7
99.7
59.3
97.1
84.0
91.6
126.3
97.1
107.3
93.7
64.8
44.3
68.8
78.0
79.9
28.9
38.4
69.1
47.3
66.4
150.5
130.4
35.1
1.1
51.9
29.7
10.7
19.8
30.4
58.7
14.9
44.3
59.9
-53.3
-23.2
58.6
63.7
(±7.9)
(+13.2)
(+14.2)
(+10.9)
(+12.8)
(+11.9)
(+8.8)
1+5.7)
(+15.1)
(+24.5)
(+16.4)
(+4.4)
(+5.3)
1.10
0.56
0.32
0.82
0.09
1.41
0.32
0.88
2.04
0.19
0.39
2.19
70.6
(0.98,
(0.49,
(0.28,
(0.73,
(0.08,
(1.24,
(0.29,
(0.80,
(1.77,
(0.17,
(0.35,
(1.99,
(63.0,
12.3)
0.63)
0.35)
0.91)
0.10)
1.61)
0.35)
0.96)
2.34)
0.22)
0.44)
2.41)
79.1)
-0.63
-0.53
-0.61
-0.34
-0.91
-0.65
-O.bU
-0.(..'
-1). Jb
-11. J(j
-o. Ji'
-o.su
-0.90
(-052)
(.065)
(.059)
(.Ubl)
(.07J)
(.073)
(.ojy)
(.030)
( .UBH)
(.07U)
(.060)
(.0.15)
(.060)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVBNT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: MPSDM
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Perfomance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Nunber
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 3643
Average
Difference
Cp)
0.76
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
tug/*1 )'
4061B (38B26, 42SS7)
Gross
Variability
(H9/"1 )'
41S66
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(ug/rf )
125.4 0.15 (0.12, 0.18)
Frequency Distribution
Normality- Test
lf(d) - £„)) max
(fraction)
-0.22 (.032)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3) 5681
H
00
33.2 (+6.9)
0.79
3386B (32658, 35158)
34966
114.2
0.02 (-0.01, 0.05)
-0.24 (.026)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
^-..Ji Lions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 B/sec
2.5 to 5 n/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A 4 B
Class C
Class D
Class B t F
1344
863
1080
998
698
698
2395
2807
479
594
1014
3056
1017
51.9 (+13.0)
29.7 (+10.6)
10.7 (+14.7)
19.8 (+10.5)
30.4 (+12.6)
58.7 (+14.3)
14.9 (±12.3)
44.2 {+7.9)
59.9 (+24.5)
-53.4 (±35. 3)
-23.2 (+21.4)
58. 6. (+6. 2)
63.7 (+8.4)
0.80
0.76
0.79
0.66
0.94
0.83
0.78
0.81
0.71
0.62
0.64
0.81
0.99
23975 (22267,
38431 (35063,
51887 (47792,
31223 (28666,
28190 (25465,
26689 (24109,
47920 (45325,
22298 (21179,
28439 (25174,
89292 (79998,
74924 (68832,
14886 (14168,
7333 (6737,
24427)
42359)
56586)
•»n?3>
31424)
29750)
50765)
23516)
32455)
100484)
89558)
15664)
8018)
26650
39268
51952
11593
29071
30098
48123
24251
31976
91989
1788
18317
11389
115.7
124.0
124.6
124.5
75.9
106.9
124.7
102.4
131.0
178.9
177.3
97.1
64.8
-0.10 (-0.15,
0.02 (-0.05,
0.09 (0.03,
-0.01 (-0.07,
0.11 (0.04,
-0.31 (-0.38,
0.00 (-0.04,
-0.07 (-0.11,
0.00 (-0.09,
0.05 (-0.03,
-0.07 (-0.13,
0.02 (-0.02,
-0.02 (-0.08,
-0.05)
0.09)
0.15)
0.05)
0.18)
-0.24)
0.04)
-0.03)
0.09)
0.13)
-O.Oi)
0.06)
0.04)
-0.22
-0.23
-0.28
-0.13
-0.42
-0.21
-0.28
-0.22
-U.10
-0.19
-o.ia
-0.16
-0.31
(.052)
(.065)
(.059)
(.061)
(.073)
(.073)
(.039)
(.036)
(.088)
(.079)
(.060)
(.035)
(.060)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VAU1BS EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIMB)
CLIFTX CREEK (1975)
MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
00
H
U5
Performance Measures -
Data Sets
*
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
_,. j.il concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2'
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 H/sec
2.5 to 5 ra/sec
>5 HI/ sec
b. Stability Group
Class A 4 B
Class C
Class D
Class E S F
Number
of
Events
1290
2178
518
353
409
400
238
260
631
1265
282
209
429
1212
328
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value value of_Avera^ges
Co Cp Co - Cp
(ng/rf > (M9/rf } (li9/n3)
93.4
75.1
80.6
76.1
74.2
78.5
50.8
81.0
69.7
73.6
93.6
74.2
86.4
75.8
58.3
65.
48.
37.
54.
66.
62.
28.
32.
58.
43.
49.
107.
98.
33.
2.
3
8
3
5
9
9
2
6
4
9
1
7
4
5
8
28.1
26.3
43.3
21.6
7.3
15.6
22.6
48. 4
11.3
29.7
44.6
-33.5
-12.0
42.2
55.5
(±7-9)
(±5.2)
(+8.9)
(+12.8)
(+15.3)
(+11.0)
(+16.1)
(+12.7)
(+3.0)
(+6.2)
(+13.2)
(+21.0)
(+17.0)
( + 5.2)
(+6.8)
• Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
So'/Sp'
0.65
.
0.70
1.49
0.83
0.40
1.27
0.08
1.87
0.38
0.86
2.47
0.47
0.40
1.94
31.1
(0.58,
(0.64,
(1.30,
(0.68,
(0.33,
(1.06,
(0.06,
(1.50,
(0.30,
(0.77,
(2.21,
(0.37,
(0.35,
(1.73,
(25.3,
0.73)
0.77)
1.71)
l.nil
0.48)
1.52)
0.10)
2.34)
0.47)
0.97)
2.77)
0.59)
0.46)
2.17)
38.3)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(£(C0) - t(Cp)| max
( t [action)
-0.47
-0.48
-0.53
-0.41
-0.55
-0.20
-0.84
-0.63
-0.47
-0.54
-0. J 1
-0.22
-0.2!)
-U.50
-0.93
(.054)
(.041)
.085)
.102)
.095)
.096)
.125)
(.119)
(.077)
.054)
(.113)
(.133)
(.oy3)
(.055)
(.106)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BX-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIPTX CREEK (1975) MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
10
o
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 ra/sec
2.5 to 5 in/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E t f
Number
of
Events
1290
2178
51B
353
409
400
238
260
631
1265
282
209
429
1212
328
Bias
Average
Difference
V
0.18
0.74
C.76
0.71
0.76
0.59
0.90
0.82
0.71
0.76
0.73
0.52
0.59
0.77
0.97
16464
14526
11422
13559
22928
11707
15216
10932
21911
11528
10661
23391
32283
7971
4035
Noise Gross
(Variance) Variability
dig/m* )' (ug/nr1 )'
(15279, 17847)
(13703, 15432)
(10156, 12966)
(11773, 15832)
(20101, 26465)
(10249, 13535)
(12831, 18418)
(9283, 13117)
(19692, 24567)
(10683, 12487)
(9110, 12693)
(19512, 28705)
(28387, 37131)
(7375, 8650)
(3486, 4740)
17242
15210
13276
13986
22926
11920
15664
13230
22004
330488
436921
24405
32353
9750
7104
Average Correlation Frequency Distribution
Absolute Coefficient Normality Test
Difference (f(d) - £n)| max
big/a*) (fraction)
87.7
83.8
86.4
83.1
95.8
82.7
63.1
81.3
93.7
79.2
82.8
114.5
118.4
73.3
57.8
0.22 (0.17,
0.05 (0.01,
-0.08 (-0.17
0.10 (0.00,
0.09 (-0.01
0.08 (-0.02
0.09 (-0.04
0.00 (-0.10
-0.01 (-0.09
0.08 (0.02,
0.19 (0.07,
0.03 (-0.11
-0.01 (-0.10
0.07 (0.01,
-0.07 (-0.18
0.27)
0.09)
, 0.01)
0.20)
, 0.19)
, 0.18)
, 0.21)
, 0.14)
, 0.07)
0.13)
0.30)
, 0.17)
, 0.08)
0.13)
, 0.04)
-0.18
-0.19
-0.15
-0.17
-0.26
-0.06
-0.38
-0.17
-0.21
-0.19
-0.10
-0.12
-0.14
-0.13
-0.26
(.054)
(.041)
(.085)
.102)
.095)
.096)
.125)
.119)
(.077)
(.054)
(.115)
(.133)
(.093)
(.055)
(.106)
-------
TABLE D. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: UPSDM AVERAGING TINE: 24 HOURS
V
to
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
oC
Events
337
Performance
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value of_Avera_ges
Cf C* «• f
o ^*p o **p
(vg/sf ) (n9/»f ) (iig/m3)
38.3 25.0 13.3 (±4.9) 1
Measures - Unpaired
Variance
Comparison
v/v
.10 (0.90, 1.35)
Comparisons
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
|f(C0) - t(Cp)J max
(traction)
-0.37 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
1126
22.4
12.1
10.3 (+1.9)
1.28 (1.15, 1.44)
-0.53 (.057)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
207
188
196
187
210
138
29.5
21.1
24.1
24.7
13.5
21.4
12.0
12.8
17.6
17.5
4.1
8.1
17.5
8.3
6.5
7.2
9.4
13.3
(+4.9)
(+4.4)
(+5.8)
(+5.0)
(+2.7)
(±4.4)
3.35
1.14
0.71
1.62
0.31
2.74
(2.66,
(0.90,
(0.56,
(1-27,
(0.24,
(2.06,
4.21)
1.46)
0.90)
2.07)
0.39)
3.64)
-0.43
-0.43
-0.55
-U.33
-0.88
-0.56
.134)
.140)
.1J7)
.141)
.133)
.164)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIPTY CREEK (1975) MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIMEs 24 HOURS
f
to
10
1.
Data Sets
Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
337
Performance
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value oE Averages
CQ Cp CQ — Cn
Cug/rf ) (wg/rf ) (W9/.3T
38.3 25.0 13.3 (±4.9) 1
Measures - Unpaired
Variance
Comparison
v/v
.10 (0.90, 1.35)
Comparisons
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
lf(C0) - f(Cp)l max
(fraction)
-0.37 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(8-3)
1126
22.4
12.1
10.3 (+1.9)
1.28 (1.15, 1.44)
-0.53 (.057)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
207
188
196
187
210
138
29.5
21.1
24.1
24.7
13.5
21.4
12.0
12.8
17.6
17.5
4.1
8.1
17.5
8.3
6.5
7.2
9.4
13.3
C+4.9)
(+4.4)
1*5.8)
(+5.0)
(+2.7)
(+4.4)
3.35
1.14
0.71
1.62
0.31
2.74
(2.66,
(0.90,
(0.56,
(1-27,
(0.24,
(2.06,
4.21)
1.46)
0.90)
2.07)
0.39)
3.64)
-0.43
-0.43
-0.55
-0.33
-0.88
-0.56
(.134)
(.140)
t-137)
(.141)
(.133)
(.164)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON Of OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVBHT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CL1FTV
(1975)
MODEL: HPSDM
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance
Measures - Paired Comparison a
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
1.
Data Sets
Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Average
Number Difference
of (Co - Cp>
Events (W9/B* T
337 13.3 (+4.3)
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(C0> Cp) (M9/"»'
0.74 1171 (1014, 1373)
Gross Average Correlation
Variability Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(vg/B* )l (M9/**)
1344 25.8 0.45 (0.37, 0.54)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
I£(d)
- fn)J MX
(traction)
0
.12 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
1126
10.3 (+2*0)
0.00
750 (692, 816)
855
19.5
0.32 (0.2b. 0.37)
-0.16 (.057)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
ffl
1
KJ
u>
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
207
188
196
187
210
138
17.5
8.3
6.5
7.1
9.4
13.3
(+6.0)
(±4.1)
(+5.8)
(±3- ?)
(±3.0)
(±<.8)
0.78
0.77
0.78
0.67
0.93
0.80
1099
581
1196
563
328
615
(916,
(480,
(992,
(465,
(274,
(493,
1350)
722)
1478)
700)
402)
795)
1400
647
1232
611
415
787
25.5
17.6
23.2
17.0
13.8
19.6
0.16 (0.03, 0.29)
0.37 (0.24, 0.49)
0.30 (0.17, 0.42)
0.56 (0.45, 0.65)
0.20 (0.07, 0.33)
0.13 (-0.04, 0.29)
0.14
-0.15
-0.21
0.16
-0.31
0.13
(-134)
(-140)
(.137)
(.141)
(.133)
(.104)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-BY-EVBNT (PAIRED IN TIME)
»1976)
MODEL: MPSDM
AVERAGING TIMEi 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
C
Average Predicted
Value
C
)
Difference
of_Averages
co - Cp
(liq/m3)
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
[t(C0) - f(Cp)l max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
4187
126.0
76.0
50.0 (+6.2)
0.69 (0.63, 0.76)
-0.54 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
6647
97.4
53.0
44.4 (+4.2)
0.76 (0.69, 0.84)
-0.57 (.024)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
tf Station 2
to Station 3
** Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 in/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A i B
Class C
Class D
Class E & F
1493
1225
1175
1337
508
909
2291
3888
468
575
1264
3682
1126
101.4
101.1
81.9
102.1
75.0
111.9
88.0
100.4
118.7
107.4
108.3
102.4
63.9
44.8
41.
5
72.8
74.
3
40.3
32.
69.
41.
68.
136.
112.
35.
0.
0
5
5
0
8
7
5
5
56.6
59.6
9.1
27.8
34.6
79.9
18.5
58.9
50.7
-29.4
-4.4
66.9
63.4
(+9.0)
(+9.8)
(+11.5)
(+9.3)
(+15.3)
(+9.0)
(+8.5)
(+4.8)
(+14.0)
(+22.5)
(+13.2)
(+4.3)
(+3.8)
0.89
1.19
0.27
0.92
0.30
1.26
0.40
1.31
1.73
0.32
0.42
2.65
76.70
(0.79,
(1.06,
(0.24,
(0.82,
(0.26,
(1.12,
(0.36,
(1.18,
(1.48,
(0.28,
(0.37,
(2.41,
(67.88,
1.00)
1.33)
0.30)
1.03)
0.35)
1.42)
0.44)
1.44)
2.02)
0.37)
0.47)
2.92)
86.67)
-0.63
-0.70
-0.47
-0.37
-0.81
-0.74
-0.61
-0.60
-0.33
-0.36
-0.42
-0.55
-0.99
(.050)
(.055)
(.056)
(.053)
(.085)
(.064)
(.040)
(.031)
(.089)
(.080)
(.054)
(.032)
(.057)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIPTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: MPSDM
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
¥
to
Ul
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
^
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l) 4187
Average
Difference
tc — c \
l^o '-p'
(ug/m1)
50.0 (±8.5)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(Co' V
0.78
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise Gross
(Variance) Variability
(ug/m* )* (lig/m* )'
36192 (34695, 37799) 38685
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(ug/rf )
131.2 0.13 (0.10, 0.16)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - tn)J max
(fraction)
-0.20 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
6647
44.4 (+6.3)
0.79
31871 (30817, 32985)
33842
120.6
-0.05 <-0.07, -0.03)
-0.22 (.024)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E t F
1493
1225
1175
1337
508
909
2291
3888
468
575
1264
3682
1126
56.6
59.6
9.1
27.8
34.6
79.9
18.6
59.0
50.7
-29.4
-4.4
67.0
63.4
(+13.91
(+13.5)
(+17.6)
(+15.5)
(+15.6)
(+11.5)
(+11.6)
(+7.8)
(+22.0)
(+31.9)
(+19.1)
(+7.1)
(+5.4)
0.80
0.84
0.73
0.65
0.89
0.89
0.77
0.80
0.67
0.61
0.66
0.79
1.00
28831
30682
42164
34193
28528
19900
45834
23928
24567
82161
63431
19432
4084
(26877,
(28400,
(38965,
(31752,
(25339,
(18198,
(43299,
(22902,
(21717,
(73481,
(58781,
(18576,
(3768,
31028)
33281)
45814)
36956)
32427)
21878)
48620)
25032)
28082)
92646)
68712)
20354)
4446)
32010
34205
42211
34941
29670
26257
46159
27398
27080
82884
63400
23910
8094
123.3
117.5
121.6
131.7
99.5
114.7
132.5
113.8
119.5
193.5
172.3
108.9
63.7
-0.10
-0.01
-0.05
-0.13
0.10
0.06
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
-0.10
-0.11
-0.08
0.06
(-0.05
(-0.07
(-0.11
(-0.18
(0.01,
(-0.01
(-0.10
(-0.07
(-0.11
(-0.18
(-0.16
(-0.11
(0.00,
, 0.15)
, 0.05)
, 0.01)
, -0.08)
0.19)
, 0.12)
, -0.02)
, -0.01)
, 0.07)
, -0.02)
, -0.06)
, -0.05)
0.12)
-0.21
-0.25
-0.22
-0.12
-0.36
-0.21
-0.27
-0.19
0.08
-0.19
-0.19
-0.13
-0.26
(.050)
(-055)
(.056)
(.053)
(.085)
(.064)
(.040)
(.031)
(.089)
(.080)
(.054)
(.032)
(.057)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-BVBNT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIPTY CREEK (1976) MODELt HPSDM AVERAGING TIME! 3 HOURS
Data Sets
Average Observed
Number Value
of C0
Events (ug/rf)
Average Predicted
value
Perforaance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Averages
Co-C
5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E t F
590
480
448
519
184
351
648
1519
405
223
486
1457
406
82.8
83.3
btt.l
83.6
62.4
92.0
70.0
82.2
89.6
84.5
85.5
84.3
57.2
36.9
34.7
62.5
60.9
36.9
26.8
61.0
37.7
43.2
101.0
83.2
34.6
2.1
45.9
48.6
5.6
22.7
25.5
65.2
9.0
44.5
46.4
-16.5
2.3
49.7
55.1
(+9.1)
(+10.4)
(+13.0)
(+10.7)
(+16.2)
(+.10.0)
(+10.7)
(+5.8)
(±9.9)
(+23.5)
(+13.3)
(+5.2)
(+5.2)
1.91
1.56
0.27
1.29
0.44
1.82
0.49
1.24
2.47
0.34
0.61
2.56
19.91
(1.66,
(1.34,
(0.23,
(1.12,
(0.34,
(1.49,
(0.43,
(1.11,
(2.06,
(0.27,
(0.52,
(2.30,
(16.88,
•
2.19)
1.81)
0.32)
1.49)
0.56)
2.22)
0.56)
1.37)
2.96)
0.44)
0.70)
2.84)
23.50)
-0.53
-0.60
-0.42
-0.26
-0.72
-0.71
-0.46
-0.55
-0.37
-0.30
-0.35
-0.46
-0.94
(.079)
(.088)
(.091)
(.084)
(.142)
(.103)
(.076)
(.049)
(.096)
(.129)
(.087)
(.050)
(.095)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELI MPSDM
AVERAGING TIHEi 3 HOURS
Per for nance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Nunber
of
Events
1507
Average
Difference
(Co - Co)
42.4 (+7.8)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.76
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise Gross
(Variance) Variability
15107 (14088, 16252) 16897
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(ug/*1 )
92.5 0.22 (0.17, 0.27)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - fn)J -ax
(fraction)
-0.16 (.050)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
2572
35.9 (+5.8)
0.74
14520 (13760, 15351)
15800
88.5
-0.01 (-0.05, 0.03)
-0.16 (.038)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By neteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
<2.5 M/sec
2.5 to 5 a/sec
>5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class B t f
590
480
448
519
184
351
648
1519
405
223
486
1457
406
45.9 (+12.6)
48.6 (+10.8)
5.6 (+18.1)
22.7 (+13.3)
25.5 (+13.5)
65.1 (±10.6)
9.0 (+12.3)
44.5 (+7.4)
46.4 (+13.2)
-16.4 (+29.6)
2.3 (+16.2)
49.7 (+6.7)
55.0 (±6.0)
0.74
0.80
0.70
0.61
0.82
0.89
0.68
0.78
0.71
0.56
0.61
0.75
0.97
14360
12058
20718
16282
9066
7337
19070
13240
10563
32344
22844
11192
2936
(12861, 16167)
(10675, 13758)
(18255, 23772)
(14480, 18481)
(7471, 11301)
(6364, 8578)
(17163, 21349)
(12350, 14240)
(9249, 12211)
(27106, 39458)
(20226, 26062)
(10425, 12056)
(2571, 3393)
16441
14844
20703
16767
9667
11559
19121
15213
12687
32469
22803
13656
5956
93.4
84.9
92.7
92.1
72.6
83.2
95.6
87.5
81.0
124.8
110.5
84.3
57.5
-0.13 (-0.21,
0.07 (-0.02.
-0.06 (-0.15,
-0.06 (-0.15,
0.29 (0.15,
0.21 (0.11,
0.01 (-0.0,,
-0.01 (-0.06,
-0.03 (-0.13,
-0.02 (-0.15,
-0.01 (-0.10,
-0.08 (-0.13,
-0.04 (-0.14,
-0.05)
0.16)
0.03)
0.03)
0.42)
0.31)
0.09)
0.04)
0.07)
0.11)
0.08)
-0.03)
0.06)
-0.14
-0.19
-0.19
0.09
-0.30
-0.17
-0.20
-0.17
0.11
-0.13
-0.14
0.11
-0.25
(.079)
(.088)
(.091)
(.084)
(.142)
(.103)
(.076)
(.049)
(.096)
(.129)
(.087)
(.050)
(.095)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVBHT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTV CREEK (1976)
MODEL: HPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
N>
00
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in ti*e and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station S
Station 6
Number
of
Events
355
1175
242
236
191
219
124
163
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value of_Aver_ages
Co Cp C0 - Cp
(wg/rf ) (wg/rf ) (M9/«3)
46.0
26.0
29.0
26.0
23.5
29.0
15.6
28.1
25.
12.
11.
9.
18.
7
5
6
1
2
19.5
7.
7.
0
2
20.3
13.5
17.4
16.9
5.3
9.5
8.6
20.9
(+4.6)
(+1.9)
(+4.3)
(+3.8)
(±5.2)
(+5.5)
(+4.0)
(+4.0)
Variance
Comparison
Sol/Sp'
1.26
1.57
2.47
2.50
0.49
2.03
0.90
3.62
(1.03,
(1.40,
(1.98,
(2.02,
(0.38,
(1.62,
(0.67,
(2.79,
1.54)
1.76)
3.09)
3.11)
0.62)
2.54)
1.22)
4.71)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
lf(C0) - f(Cp)] max
(fraction)
-0.35
-0.50
-0.51
-0.59
-0.44
-0.29
-0.77
-0.64
(.102)
(.056)
(.124)
(.125)
(.139)
(.130)
(.172)
(.151)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVEHT-BX-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFFY CREEK (1976) MODEL: MPSDH AVERAGING TIMEi 24 HOURS
performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
- Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
1.
Data Sets
Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
355
Average
Difference
(Co - C_)
(M9/-1)
20.3 (+3.7)
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(C0 > Cp) (W9/"1 )'
O.B1 1125 (976, 1314)
Gross Average Correlation
Variability Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(M9/"* )l (M9/»* J
1534 29.7 0.44 (0.35, 0.52)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
tf(d) - tn)J max
(traction)
0.09 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1175
13.4 (+1.8)
O.BO
815 (753, S86)
995
21.9
0.29 (0.24, 0.34)
-0.14 (.056)
3.
hrl
¥
to
vo
All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
242
236
191
219
124
163
17.4 (+4.6)
16.9 (4-3.6)
5.4 (+5.2)
9.5 (+4.4)
8.7 (+2.6)
20.9 (+3.4)
0.81
0.87
0.71
0.68
0.85
0.90
976
582
1157
981
255
529
(823,
(490,
(957,
(820,
(202,
(431,
1181)
706)
1436}
1200)
336)
669)
1276
865
1180
1066
328
963
24.7
21.3
23.6
22.0
13.7
22.9
0.18
0.37
0.16
0.46
0.49
0.26
(0.06,
(0.25,
(0.02,
(0.13,
(0.34,
(0.13,
0.30)
0.48)
0.30)
0.00)
0.61)
0.42)
0.16
0.14
-0.17
0.14
-0.24
0.13
(-124)
(.125)
(.139)
(.130)
(.172)
(.151)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVBNT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIPTY CREEK (1975) MODEL« COMPTER AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
T
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
3792
Average Observed
Value
108.9
Average Predicted
Value
112.2
Performance
Difference
of_Averages
(?g/»3?
-3.3 (+7.4)
Measures - Unpaired
Variance
Comparison
SI /c 1
o '&p
0.41 (0.37, 0.45)
Comparisons
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(MC0) - t(Cp)] max
(traction)
-0.43 (.031)
2. All concentrations,
all stations ,(paired
in tiMe and location)
IB-3)
5956
B7.4
78.4
9.0 (+5.1)
0.43 (0.39, 0.47)
-0.50 (.025)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
<2.5 n/sec
2.5 to 5 ^/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E I F
1399
883
1177
1075
752
670
2476
2995
485
568
989
3167
1232
92.6
96.4
82.1
93.0
55.4
101.0
81.4
86.3
124.8
101.5
109.8
90.7
54.5
67
97
94
123
27
33
63
83
124
143
137
60
47
.7
.7
.0
.0
.6
.5
.2
.6
.0
.1
.6
.2
.8
24.9
-1.3
-11.9
-30.0
27.8
67.5
18.2
2.7
0.8
-41.6
-27.8
30.5
6.7
(+9.3)
(+15.2)
(+12.9)
(+12.7)
(+9.0)
(±12.4)
(+7.5)
(+7.1)
(+20.7)
(+23.9)
(+17.4)
(+5.4)
(+8.0)
0.55
0.35
0.34
0.43
0.18
1.33
0.46
0.38
0.54
0.22
0.34
0.75
0.45
(0.49,
(0.31,
(0.30,
(0.38,
(0.16,
(1.16,
(0.42,
(0.35,
(0.46,
(0.19,
(0.31,
(0.68,
(0.40,
0.62)
0.40)
0.38)
0.4B)
0.21)
1.53)
0.51)
0.42)
0.62)
0.26)
0.39)
0.83)
0.50)
-0.55
-0.50
-0.43
-0.25
-0.77
-0.75
-0.59
-0.47
-0.36
-0.46
-0.44
-0.49
-0.63
.051)
.Ob5)
.056)
.059)
.070)
(.074)
(.039)
(.035)
(.0«7)
(.Obi)
(.061)
(.034)
(.055)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODELI COMPTER AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
e vent-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
3792
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
(M9/m"T
-3.4 (+10. 0)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
Cp)
0.67
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
tog/if )*
44602 (42667, 46686)
Gross
Variability
(M9/"1 >'
44601
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(ug/rf )
137.4 0.19 (0.16, 0.22)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
U(d) - £n)l "a*
(fraction)
-0.20 (.031)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
5956
9.0 (+7.1)
0.72
39002 (37641, 40445)
39076
124.9
0.02 (-0.01, 0.05)
-0.23 (.025)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 «/sec
2.5 to 5 ra/sec
>5 m/aec
b. Stability Group
Class A * B
Class C
Class D
Class E & F
1399
883
1177
1075
752
670
2476
2995
485
"568
989
3167
1232
24.9 (+15.5)
-1.2 (+18.1)
-11.9 (+17.5)
-30.0 (+17.8)
27.8 (±10.6)
67.5 (Tl8.0)
18.2 (+10.2)
2.7 (+10.1)
0.7 (+31.6)
-41.7 -(+30.8)
-27.9 (+24.1)
30.5 (+7.7)
6.8 (+13.3)
0.75
0.71
0.66
0.56
0.87
0.88
0.76
0.70
0.64
0.66
0.66
0.73
0.77
35324 (32856, 38109)
48607 (44396, 53511)
48170 (44520, 52334)
46907 (43199, 51164)
14356 (13016, 15936)
25481 (22973, 28468)
36544 (34597, 38676)
38601 (36724, 40640)
53475 (47348, 61008)
80412 (71876, 90733)
81301 (74619, 89017)
23118 (22023, 24304)
8338 (7720, 9041)
35917
48554
48271
47761
15109
29995
36859
38595
53365
82007
81996
24039
23485
130.9
139.9
123.9
154.6
69.5
109.2
119.0
123.1
166.6
179.5
185.8
109.1
91.7
-0.12 (-0.17, -0.07)
0.10 (0.03, 0.16)
0.06 (0.01, 0.12)
-0.05 (-0.11, 0.01)
0.14 (0.07, 0.21)
0.06 (-0.02, 0.14)
-0.01 (-0.05, 0.03)
0.02 (-0.02, 0.06)
0.02 (-0.07, 0.11)
0.06 (-0.02, 0.14)
-0.05 (-0.11, 0.01)
0.04 (0.01, 0.07)
-0.14 (-0.19, -0.08)
-0.24 (.051)
-0.25 (.065)
-0.19 (.056)
-0.14 (.059)
-0.34 (.070)
-0.25 (.074)
-0.26 (.039)
-0.22 (.035)
-0.16 (.087)
-0.24 (.081)
-0.22 (.061)
-0.19 (.034)
-0.30 (.055)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVBNT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODEL« COHPTER AVERAGING TIKE: 3 HOURS
Data Seta
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
(ng/rf )
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of Averages
c° : fp
(ug/m3)
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(r(C0) - t(Cp)] max
(traction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
1367
88.7
88.8
-0.1 (48.2)
0.52 (0.47, 0.59)
-0.33 (.052)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
2344
70.3
64.4
5.9 (+5.3)
0.55 (0.50, 0.61)
-0.36 (.040)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
tit Station 2
Jj Station 3
to Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E fc F
556
374
461
442
258
253
666
1381
297
204
423
1284
433
75.4
72.3
67.2
71.4
47.6
83.3
66.2
68.2
89.5
75.7
87.5
72.0
45.9
55.
75.
77.
95.
25.
28.
47.
66.
90.
111.
91.
56.
39.
9
8
4
1
8
5
8
8
7
5
1
6
3
19.6
-3.5
-10.2
-23.7
21.8
54. B
18.4
1.4
-1.2
-35.8
-3.6
15.4
6.6
(+10.1)
(+14.9)
(+19.7)
(+12.6)
(+10.0)
(+13.3)
(+9.1)
i+6.9)
(+17.1)
(+24.4)
(+16.1)
(+6.3)
(+8.9)
0.75
0.45
0.43
0.61
0.23
1.63
0.68
0.48
0.67
0.33
0.47
0.73
0.61
(0.65,
(0.37,
(0.37,
(0.52,
(0.18,
(1.30,
(0.60,
(0.43,
(0.54,
(0.26,
(0.40,
(0.66,
(0.51,
0.86)
0.54)
0.50)
0.72)
0.28)
2.03)
0.78)
0.53)
0.83)
0.42)
0.56)
0.81)
0.72)
-0.41
-0.34
-0.31
0.14
-0.69
-0.74
-0.44
-0.36
-0.26
-0.30
-0.35
-0.36
-0.45
(.082)
(.099)
(.090)
(.091)
(.120)
(.121)
(.074)
(.052)
(-U2)
(.135)
(.094)
(.054)
(.092)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AMR PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVBNT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
curry CREEK (1975)
HODELj COHPTBR
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
T
U)
CO
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 1367
Average
Difference
(ng/««f
-0.1 (.+9.4)
Fraction ot Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(C0> Cp) fog/*?)1
0.61 17207 (15992, 18580)
Gross
Variability
(U9/"1 )'
17194
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(uq/rf )
92.1 0.29 (0.24, 0.34)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lt(d| - fn)J max
(fraction)
-0.13 (.052)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
2344
5.9 (+6.8)
0.64
15979 (15105, 16938}
16007
88.2
0.08 (0.04, 0.12)
-0.15 (.040)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
station* (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 »/sec
2.5 to 5 si/sec
>5 »/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class B * F
556
374
461
442
258
253
666
1381
297
204
423
1284
433
I9.fi (+1S.3)
-3.5 (+15.1)
-10.3 (+16.4)
-23.7 (+15.5)
21.8 (±11.8)
54.8 (+18.3)
18.3 (+11.7)
1.4 (+9.1)
-1.2 (+19.7)
-35.8 (+.27.0)
-3.6 (+20.0)
15.4 (+8.2)
6.6 (+13.5)
0.67
0.60
0.59
0.46
0.81
0.86
0.69
0.64
0.56
0.56
0.61
0.66
0.66
16253
17269
19973
16903
5771
10071
14121
16375
17928
27503
28055
11721
10349
(14509, 18366)
(15356, 20507)
(17631, 22867)
(14881, 19414)
(4895, 6934)
(8530, 12123)
(12726, 15783)
(15224, 17675)
(15382, 21240)
(22874, 33879)
(24632, 32326)
(10868, 12688)
(9105, 11895)
16607
17235
20036
17427
6225
13030
14435
16365
17869
28649
28001
11949
10368
95.:
89.2
88.7
100.8
54.8
82.0
85.0
87.9
97.0
117.8
117.8
BO. 2
69.0
-0.il
0.22
0.12
0,07
0.18
0.13
0.02
0.06
0.21
0.14
0.02
0.11
-0.16
(-0.18, -O.OJ)
(0.12, 0.31)
(0.03, 0.21)
(-0.02, 0.16)
(0.06, 0.30)
(0.01, 0.25)
(-0.06, 0.10)
(0.01, 0.11)
(0.10, 0.32)
(0.01, 0.27)
(-O.OB, 0.12)
(0.06, 0.16)
(-0.25, -0.06)
-0.15
-0.16
-0.16
-0.06
-0.31
-0.20
-0.17
-0.16
-0.10
-0.15
-0.15
-0.13
-0.20
.082)
.099)
.090)
.091)
.120}
(.121)
(.074)
(.052)
(.112)
(.135)
(.094)
(.054)
(.092)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO] CONCENTRATION VALUES EVKNT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODEL: COHPTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Nuniber
of
Events
337
Average Observed
Value
Co
(pg/m1 )
38.3
Performance Measures - Unpaired
Average Predicted Difference Variance
Value of Averages Comparison
cp co - CP
(pg/rf ) (pg/m3) . S0l/Sp*
34.9 3.4 (+5.9) 0.59 (0.48, 0.72)
Comparisons
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
lt(C0) - £(Cp)) ma*
(fraction)
-0.32 t.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
U)
1152
21.9
16.7
5.2 (+2.2)
0.69 (0.62, 0.77)
-0.47 (.057)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
215
191
203
197
211
135
28.5
20.8
23.4
23.6
13.4
21.9
17.9
18.4
22.9
27.5
4.2
6.9
10.6
2.4
0.5
-3.9
9.2
15.0
(+5.5)
(+5.3)
(±6.3)
(+6.2)
(+2.3)
(+4.6)
1.31
0.57
0.52
0.54
0.47
2.30
(1.04,
(0.45,
(0.41,
(0.43,
(0.37,
(1.73,
1.65)
0.72)
0.65)
0.68)
0.59)
3.05)
-0.37
-0.41
-0.41
-0.30
-0.81
-0.67
(.131)
(.139)
(.135)
(.137)
(.132)
(.166)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVBNT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: COHPTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
"
,
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in tiae and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
tp by station (B-l)
,*, Station 1
^ Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
Number
of
Events
337
1152
21S
191
203
197
211
135
Bias
Average
Difference
(C0 - 0,)
<**/«• T
3.4 (±4.6)
5.2 («.2)
10.6 (+6.6)
2.4 (+3.8)
0.5 (46.2)
-3.9 (+5.3)
9.2 (?2.1>
15.0 (+5.0)
Characteristic Discrepancies
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
Cp)
0.64
0.72
0.71
0.65
0.66
0.54
0.92
0.84
Noise
Gross
(Variance) Variability
1433
947
1444
661
1327
1114
191
627
(wg/rf
(1239,
(875,
(1207.
(547,
(1104,
(924,
(159,
(501,
>'
1681)
1030)
1768)
820)
1635)
1377)
234)
814)
(M9/* )'
1441
974
1549
663
1321
1124
275
846
Average
Absolute
Difference
(liq/rf)
26.9
20.5
26.9
10.0
22.9
22.2
12.7
20.4
Correlation
Coefficient
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
U(d) - fn
)J »ax
(traction)
0.55
0,37
0.16
0.54
0.37
0.50
0.37
O.lb
(0.47,
(0.32,
(0.03,
(0.43,
(0.24,
(0.39,
(0.25,
(-0.01
0.62)
0.42)
0.29)
0.63)
0.48)
0.60)
0.48)
, 0.32)
-0.11 (
-0.16 (
-0.11 (
-0.15 (
-0.17 (
-0.13 (
-0.25 (
-0.15 (
.105)
.057)
.131)
.139)
.135)
.137)
.132)
.166)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVBNT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODELt COMPTER AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
T
OJ
Performance Measures
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
<2.S m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/aec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E ( F
Number
of
Events
4387
7016
1555
1278
1333
1410
557
B83
2377
4152
487
546
1253
3858
1359
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value of Averages
C0 Cp C0 - Cp
(pg/rf » (wg/rf ) (M9/«3)
120.5
92.6
97.5
97.2
72.9
97.1
68.7
115.0
85.0
94.4
114.3
112.8
109.1
98.0
54.0
113.1
78.1
69.
62.
111.
2
6
5
115.7
40.
28.
72.
75.
131.
153.
137.
60.
43.
9
9
5
0
5
5
4
4
3
•
7.4
14.5
28.3
34.6
-38.6
-18.6
27.8
86.1
12.5
19.4
-17.2
-40.7
-28.3
37.6
10.7
(±7.0)
(±4.7)
(+9.3)
(+11.1)
(±12.6)
(±10.9)
(+13.5)
(±9.9)
(+8.4)
l«-9>
(±20.2)
(+26.0)
(+15.2)
(+5.1)
(+7.1)
- Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
So'/Sp1
0.43
0.46
0.69
0.64
0.18
0.49
0.36
1.08
'
0.39
0.52
0.41
0.24
0.29
1.01
0.27
(0.39,
(0.42,
(0.63,
(0.57,
(0.16,
(0.44,
(0.32,
(0.96,
(0.36,
(0.47,
(0.34,
(0.21,
(0.26,
(0.92,
(0.25,
0.48)
0.51)
0.76)
0.72)
0.20)
0.55)
0.42)
1.22)
0.44)
0.57)
0.49)
0.28)
0.33)
1.11)
0.30)
Frequency Distribution
Corapa c i son
|t(C0) - t(Cp)] max
(traction)
-0.43
-0.50
-0.56
-0.66
-0.30
-0.28
-0.64
-0.82
-0.58
-0.48
-0.27
-0.41
-0.42
-0.47
-0.69
(.029)
(.023)
(.049)
(.054)
(.053)
(.051)
(.081)
(.065)
(.039)
(.030)
(.087)
(.082)
(.054)
(.031)
(.052)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
8O2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVBNT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: COHPTER
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
,
Bias
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 4387
Average
Difference
(Co -C_)
(wg/*1)
7.4 (+9.5)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
V
0.67
Performance
Measures - Paired Comparisons
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
foq/rf >»
47317 (45402, 49367)
Gross
Variability
(pg/rf )*
47361
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(jig/rf)
146.4 0.16 (0.13, 0.19)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Tesc
If(d) - fn)l max
(fraction)
-0.18 (.029)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
U)
-J
7016
14.5 (+7.4)
0.71
42823 (41443, 44279)
43028
135.3
-0.06 (-0.08, -0.04)
-0.21 (.023)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1 >
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 «/sec
>5 n/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class B (. F
1555
1278
1333
1410
557
B83
2377
4152
487
546
1253
3858
1359
28.3 (+16.9)
34.6 (+15.6)
-38.7 (+18.8)
-18.6 (+.18.0)
27.8 (+15.6)
86.1 (+12.1)
12.6 (+12.2)
19.4 (+9.8)
-17.2 (±31.2)
-40.7 (+36.0)
-28.3 (+24.0)
37.6 (+8.4)
10.7 (+12.6)
0.75
0.79
0.56
0.58
0.81
0.92
0.75
0.71
0.57
0.65
0.65
0.71
0.79
39548
41677
55740
48744
24500
20888
46353
39400
53747
101030
82268
27886
21163
(36919,
(38638,
(51755,
(45350,
(21874,
(19077,
(43835,
(37763,
(47623,
(90111,
(76212,
(26685,
(19664,
42497)
45126)
60251)
52572)
27682)
22997)
49116)
41156)
61267)
114283)
89149)
29177)
22857)
40325
42841
57194
49056
25231
28277
46491
39767
53932
102505
83003
29296
21261
139.0
128.9
140.5
159.0
92.2
119.5
133.9
132.8
163.5
209.8
192.2
122.3
89.8
-0.12
-0.01
-0.02
-0.13
0.08
0.08
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.06
-0.10
-0.08
-0.21
(-0.17,
(-0.06,
(-0.07,
(-0.18,
(0.00,
(0.01,
(-0.12,
(-0.09,
(-0.13,
(-0.14,
(-0.15,
(-0.11,
(-0.26,
-0.07)
0.04)
0.03)
-0.08)
0.16)
0.15)
-0.04)
-0.03)
0.05)
0.02)
-0.04)
-0.05)
-0.16)
-0.23 (.049)
-U.26 (.054)
-0.17 (.053)
-0.14 (.051)
-0.29 (.081)
-0.23 (.065)
-0.26
-0.20
-0.10
-0.22
-o.n
-0.16
.039)
.030)
.087)
.082)
.054)
.031)
-U.32 (.052)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFFY CREEK (1976) MODELt COMPTER AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Data Sets
Average Observed
Number Value
of co
Events (wg/rf)
Average Predicted
Value
Difference
of_Averages
~
Variance
Conparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
If (C0) - f(Cp)l max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
1586
96.9
89.8
9.1 (+7.8)
0.57 (0.51, 0.63)
-0.35 (.048)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
In time and location)
(B-3)
2745
75.6
64.8
10.8 (+5.1)
0.61 (0.55, 0.67)
-0.38 (.037)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
W Station 2
to Station 3
00 Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
< 2 . 5 n/8ec
2.5 to 5 »/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class B t F
615
509
513
567
198
343
654
1667
424
214
487
1526
518
79.6
79.1
60.3
77.1
58.3
94.0
69.3
75.5
86.0
87.7
85.2
80.9
46.2
57.4
51.7
94.4
92.0
36.8
24.4
56.1
63.
83.
111.
94.
58.
34.
4
8
9
6
9
7
22.2
27.4
-34.1
-15.0
21.5
69.6
13.2
12.1
2.2
-24.2
-9.4
22.0
11.5
(+10.5)
(+11.4)
(+13.4)
(±15.2)
(+10.7)
(+10.0)
(+6.6)
(+12.8)
(+25.2)
(+15.0)
(+6.2)
(+7.9)
0.88
0.87
0.21
0.78
0.46
1.36
0.59
0.60
0.68
0.30
0.43
0.97
0.45
(0.77,
(0.76,
(0.18,
(0.68,
(0.37,
(1.10,
(0.52,
(0.54,
(0.57,
(0.24,
(0.37,
(0.87,
(0.39,
1.01)
1.00)
0.24)
0.90)
0.58)
1.67)
0.67)
0.66)
0.82)
0.38)
0.49)
1.07)
0.52)
-0.46 (.078)
-0.52 (.085)
-0.21 (.085)
-0.18 (.081)
-0.57 (.137)
-0.78 (.104)
,
-0.45
-0.40
-0.25
-0.34
-0.34
-0.35
-0.59 <
.075)
.047)
.093)
.131)
.087)
.049)
.085)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
902 CONCENTRATION VALOBS BVBNT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: COMPTBR AVERAGING TIHEt 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
T
CO
vo
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 s/sec
>5 m/aec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class B t F
Umber
of
Events
1586
2745
615
509
513
567
198
343
654
1667
424
214
487
1526
518
Bias
Characteristic Discrepancies
Average Fraction of Noise Gross
Difference Positive (Variance) Variability
(C0 - C_) Residuals
fog/"*) CC,,> Cp) (ug/rf)1 («/*>*
9.1 (±9.2)
10.8 (+7.1)
22.2 (+16.4)
27.4 (+13.0)
-34.2 (+19.0)
-15.0 (+15.5)
21.5 (+14.4)
69.7 (+11.2)
13.1 (+13.3)
12.1 (+9.4)
2.2 (+18.4)
-24.2 (+33.4)
-9.4 (+21.2)
22.0 (+8.8)
11.5 (+.11.8)
0.63
0.64
0.67
0.71
0.48
0.48
0.76
0.92
0.67
0.65
0.55
0.57
0.60
0.64
0.71
19295
19255
20524
16614
24426
20642
9607
8386
18484
19643
18840
35690
30224
16080
10310
(18024,
(18279,
(18423,
(14760,
(21708,
(18449.
(7969,
(7262,
(16644,
(18398,
(16544,
(29972,
(26764,
(15002,
<»169,
20719)
20319)
23046)
18880)
27746)
23294)
11874)
9823)
20680)
21076)
21704)
43978)
34477)
17291)
11702)
19365
19366
20985
17331
25545
20829
10021
13214
18629
19799
18801
36407
30250
16552
10423
Average Correlation Frequency Distribution
Absolute coefficient Normality Test
Difference (t(d) - f n) 1 max
big/a* ) (traction)
99.7
98.3
105.1
92.2
103.0
107.9
70.8
88.3
96.3
98.1
102.4
138.1
122.9
94.4
70.2
0.24 (0.19, 0.29)
0.05 (0.01, 0.09)
-0.16 (-0.24, -0.08)
-0.04 (-0.13, 0.05)
-0.02 (-0.11, 0.07)
-0.08 (-0.16, 0.02)
0.20 (0.06, 0.33)
0.18 (0.08, 0.28)
-0.08 (-0.16, 0.00)
-0.04 (-0.09, 0.01)
-0.05 (-0.14, 0.05)
-0.02 (-0.15, 0.11)
-0.07 (-0.16, 0.02)
-0.07 (-0.12, -0.02)
-0.25 (-0.32, -0.16)
-0.13
-0.14
-0.15
-0.18
-0.15
0.07
-0.25
-0.21
-0.19
-0.15
0.08
-0.15
-0.16
-0.11
-0.23
(.048)
(.037)
(.078)
(.085)
(.085)
(.081)
(.137)
(.104)
1.075)
<-047)
(.093)
(.131)
(.087)
(-049)
(.085)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1} COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BX-EVEHT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CRBBK (1976) MODEL: COMPTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures •
Data Sets
Nimber
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
C0
(wg/rf )
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Averages
Cp C0 - Cp
(ug/rf ) (ng/»3)
- Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
So'/V
Frequency Distrinutipn
Comparison
|r(C0) - t(Cj,)l max
{traction)
1. Highest concentration.
event-by -event (A-l)
356
45.9
38.5
7.4
(+5.8)
0.55 (0.45,
0.67)
-0.29
(.102)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in ti»e and
(B-3)
location)
1203
25.4
19.0
6.4
(±2.3)
0.70 (0.63,
0.77)
-0.43
(.055)
3. All concentration?
M
T
*»
by station
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
(B-ll
248
241
204
221
127
162
28.4
25.5
22.2
28.7
15.3
28.3
18.2
13.9
29.8
31.5
7.6
6.3
10.2
11.6
-7.6
-2.8
7.7
22.0
(+5.1)
(+4.3)
(+6.6)
(+6.6)
(+4.1)
(+4.1)
0.94 (0.75,
1.15 (0.92,
0.24 (0.19,
0.85 (0.67,
0.73 (0.54,
3.43 (2.64,
1.18)
1.44)
0.30)
1.07)
0.99)
4.4CJ
-0.46
-0.49
-0.28
-0.25
-0.67
-0.71
(.122)
(.124)
(.135)
(.129)
(.171)
(.151)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISOH OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELS COMPTER
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
1.
Data Sets
Highest concentration.
e vent-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
356
Average
Difference
«V> - Cp)
(lig/m'T
7.4 (+4.5)
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(C0> Cp) (ng/m1)1
0.65 1613 (1400, 1884)
Gross Average Correlation
Variability Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(lig/m* )' teg/m* )
1663 29.5 0.51 (0.43, 0.58)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - fn)l max
(fraction)
-0.09 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in ti*e and location)
(B-3)
1203
6.4 (+2.4)
0.71
1198 (1108, 1300)
1238
23.7
0.29 (0.24, 0.34)
-0.14 (.055)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
248
241
204
221
127
162
10.2
11.6
-7.6
-2.8
7.7
22.0
(+5.7)
(±4.0)
(+7.0)
(±5.0)
(+3.4)
(+3.8)
0.73
0.76
0.54
0.54
0.83
0.91
1474
752
1792
1330
315
568
(1246, 1779)
(634, 910)
(1491, 2206)
(1114, 1623)
(250, 413)
(463, 719)
1572
884
1842
1332
372
1048
27.1
21.2
26.8
24.5
14.1
24.4
0.14 (0.02, 0.26)
0.35 (0.23, 0.46)
0.28 (0.15, 0.40)
0.47 (0.36, 0.57)
0.44 (0.29, 0.57)
0.21 (0.06, 0.35)
-0.14
-0.13
-0.17
0.13
-0.21
-0.13
.122)
.124)
.135)
.129)
.171)
.151)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIPTY CREEK (1975) MODEL: SCSTBR AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
CP
(v9/*t )
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Averages
(ug/»
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(f(C0) - t(Cp)J m*x
(traction)
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
3478
118.2
46.2
72.0 (+6.0)
0.93 (0.85, 1.02)
-0.74 (.033)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
5357
96.5
33.7
62.8 (.+4.2)
1.02 (0.93, 1.12)
-0.76 (.026)
IT)
T
*»
to
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 a/sec
>5 »/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class B t F
1295
802
1002
915
690
653
2197
2720
440
•
553
948
2796
1060
99.6
105.6
94.9
108.3
59.9
103.5
91.1
94.3
136.8
104.1
114.2
101.9
62.3
30.1
48.1
34.2
48.6
8.8
28.1
33.7
33.9
32.9
120.4
83.1
11.3
3.7
69.5
57.5
60.7
59.7
51.1
75.4
57.4
60.3
103.9
-16.3
31.1
90.6
58.6
(±7.5)
(+12.9)
(+10.9)
(+10.5)
(+6.4)
(+12.3)
(+6.8)
(+5.7)
(+14.5)
(+21.5)
(+13.6)
(+4.0)
(+5.1)
1.52
0.71
0.83
1.18
0.50
1.50
0.86
0.96
4.40
0.30
0.79
8.30
33.43
(1.36,
(0.64,
(0.74,
(1.04,
(0.44,
(1.31,
(0.77,
(0.86,
(3.72,
(0.26,
(0.71,
(7.48,
(29.58,
1.70)
0.78)
0.94)
1.34)
0.57)
1.73)
0.95)
1.06)
5.19)
0.35)
0.89)
9.21)
37.77)
-0.71
-0.73
-0.85
-0.55
-0.96
-0.84
-0.81
-0.74
-0.62
-0.52
-0.52
-0.84
-0.89
(-053)
(.068)
(.061)
(.064)
(.073)
(.075)
(.041)
(.037)
(.092)
(.082)
(.062)
(.036)
(.059)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: SCSTER
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
I
U)
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
e vent-by-event (A-l) 3478
Average
Difference
(Co -Cp)
(ug/V)
71.9 (+8.4)
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(C0> Cp) (ug/m1)'
0.87 27378 (26139, 28716)
Gross
Variability
32547
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(P9/rf>
121.3 0.17 (0.14, 0.20)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
[ffdf - fn)| max
(fraction)
-0.24 (.033)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
5357
62.7 (15.8)
0.88
23559 (22694, 24480)
27488
108.0
0.04 (0.01, 0.07)
-0.26 (.026)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2 . 5 n/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A 4 B
Class C
Class D
Class K t f
1295
802
1002
915
690
653
2197
2720
440
553
948
2796
1060
69.5
57.6
60.7
59.6
51.1
75.4
57.4
60.3
103.9
-16.3
31.1
90.6
58.7
(+12.0)
(+17.8)
(+14.8)
(+13.4)
(+6.7)
(+18.1)
(+9.1)
1+7.8)
(+23.6)
(+27.3)
(+18.0)
(+5.9)
(+8.5)
0.85
0.86
0.91
0.78
0.98
0.91
O.B9
0.87
0.84
0.70
0.74
0.93
0.95
20085
33707
29322
25237
6545
24505
25388
21622
24645
62466
47017
11686
7479
(18630,
(30653,
(26927,
(22786,
(5909,
(22065,
(23956,
(20521,
(21694,
(55754,
(43076,
(11099,
(6884,
21735)
37290)
32085)
28148)
7300)
27418)
26965)
22823)
28310)
70603)
51582)
12326)
8163)
24894.
36980
32973
28766
9143
30154
28674
25254
35379
62619
47935
19891
10914
110.8
126.2
109.7
117.1
63.7
111.8
107.5
103.7
137.1
162.6
148.0
100.6
63.4
-0.05
0.03
0.06
0.04
0.13
0.06
0.03
0.06
-0.04
0.07
-0.02
0.03
-0.09
(-0.10,
(-0.04,
(-0.01,
(-0.02,
(0.06,
(-0.02,
(-0.01,
(0.02,
(-0.13,
(-0.01,
(-0.08,
(-0.01,
(-0.15,
0.01)
0.10)
0.12)
0.10)
0.20)
0.14)
0.07)
0.10)
0.05)
0.15)
0.04)
0.07)
-0.02)
-0.21
-0.29
-0.32
-0.16
-0.34
-0.27
-0.30
-0.25
-0.13
-0.25
-0.21
-0.19
-0.28
(.053)
(.068)
(.061)
(.064)
(.073)
(.075)
(.041)
(.037)
(.092)
(.082)
(.062)
(.036)
(.059)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODEL: SCSTER AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Data- Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
Cp
(wg/rf)
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Av* rages
(ug/
p
m3)
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(f(C0) - f(Cp)J max
(traction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
1230
97.7
37.4
60.2 (+6.9)
1.20 (1.07, 1.35)
-0.70 (.055)
2. AIL concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
I
2025
80.2
28.6
51.6 (+4.6)
1.30 (1.16, 1.46)
-0.70 (.043)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Kind Speed
<2.5 n/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E & F
497
324
385
341
231
247
562d
1204
259
200
398
1097
330
83.6
82.3
78.3
91.0
52.2
85.1
77.4
77.1
101.2
77.0
92.7
83.0
58.0
25
38
28
40
8
23
25
31
24
91
56
14
3
.5
.8
.4
.4
.8
.9
.0
.2
.4
.6
.1
.8
.0
58.1
43.5
49.9
50.6
43.4
61.2
52.4
45.9
76.8
-14.6
36.6
68.2
55.0
(+8.5)
(+13.5)
(+11.9)
(+11.7)
(+7.4)
(+13.2)
(+6.8)
(+6.0)
(+12.9)
(+21.8)
(+13.3)
(+5.0)
(+6.8)
2.23
0.83
1.10
1.48
0.57
1.84
1.20
1.06
4.94
0.46
1.04
4.14
30.63
(1.94,
(0.68,
(0.91,
(1.21,
(0.45,
(1.47,
(1.04,
(0.96,
(3.95,
(0.37,
(0.87,
(3.70,
(24.90,
•
2.57)
1.02)
1.33)
1.80)
0.71)
2.30)
1.38)
1.18)
6.13)
0.58)
1.25)
4.64)
37.67)
-0.64
-0.65
-0.79
-0.54
-0.94
-0.81
-0.75
-0.70
-0.65
-0.34
-0.50,
-0.79
-0.92
.086)
.107)
.098)
.104)
.127)
.122)
"
(.081)
(.055)
(.il«)
(.136)
(.096)
(.058)
(.106)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICfED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: SCSTER
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
f
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
e vent-by-event (A-l)
Average
Number Difference
of (C,, - Cp)
Events (iig/m*)
1230 60.3 (±8.3)
Fraction of Noise Gross
Positive (Variance) Variability
Residuals
(C0 > Cp) (ug/m* )* dig/in* )*
0.86 11761 (10888, 12754) 15383
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(pg/m1 )
90.3 0.22 (0.17. 0.27)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
|f(d) - £„)] «ax
(fraction)
-0.19 (.055)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
I
(Jl
2025
51.7 (+5.7)
0.85
10441 (9829, 11118)
13104
82.5
0.08 (0.04, 0.12)
-0.21 (.043)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 m/eec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class B ( F
497
324
385
341
231
247
562
1204
259
200
398
1097
330
58.1 (±12.2)
43.5 (+15.9)
49.9 (+14.4)
50.7 (±12.2)
43.3 (+8.2)
61.2 (+18.2)
52.4 (+10.3)
45.9 (+7.6)
76.9 (±14.2)
-14.5 (+22.7)
36.6 (+16.0)
68.2 (+6.1)
55.0 (±10.0)
0.82
0.82
0.88
0.77
0.97
0.89
0.87
0.84
0.86
0.62
0.72
0.91
0.96
9959
14492
12709
10326
2750
9783
10491
10267
10430
21457
17608
6649
4004
(8830,
(12503,
(11092,
(8939,
(2311,
(8268,
(9372,
(9497,
(8848,
(17822,
(15400,
(6126,
(3459,
11343)
17054)
1474<»)
12102)
3342)
11809)
11845)
11143)
12532)
26475)
20382)
7249)
4704)
13316
16338
15167
12865
4616
13486
13214
12365
16300
21560
18905
11287
7021
86.6
90.0
84.1
86.3
56.1
84.5
83.0
80.0
93.1
104.0
99.8
79.8
57.7
-0.08 (-0.17, 0.01)
0.06 (-0.05, 0.17)
0.09 (-0.01, 0.19)
0.15 (0.04, 0.25)
0.17 (0.04, 0.29)
0.12 (-0.01, 0.24)
0.07 (-0.01, 0.15)
0.09 (0.03, 0.15)
0.09 (-0.03, 0.21)
0.14 (0.01, 0.27)
0.04 (-0.06, 0.14)
0.07 (0.01, 0.12)
-0.05 (-0.18, 0.08)
-0.16
-0.23
-0.28
-0.11
-0.32
-0.22
-0.24
-0.23
0.15
-0.16
-0.16
-0.17
-0.26
(.086)
(.107)
(.098)
(.104)
(.127)
(.122)
(.081)
(.055)
(.119)
(.136)
(.096)
(.058)
(.106)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODELi SCSTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
334
Average Observed
Value
C0
38.6
Average Predicted
Value
(ng/tf )
14.5
Difference
of Averages
Co-Co
(iig/ro3)
24.1 (±4.3)
Variance
Comparison
2.28 (1.86, 2.81)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
I£(C0) - MC,,)! MX
(fraction)
-0.57 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1091
23.0
6.9
16.1 (+1.7)
2.73 (2.41, 3.08)
-0.72 (.058)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
* Station
n Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
206
179
193
174
206
133
29.6
22.1
24.5
">* . ?
13.7
22.2
7.9
8.7
7.6
10.6
1.3
5.7
21.7
13.4
16.9
15.7
12.4
16.5
(+4.6)
(±4.2)
(±4.6)
(+4.8)
(+1.6)
(+4.6)
6.39
1.53
2.10
2.66
1.85
2.58
(5.19,
(1.18,
(1.66,
(2.22,
(1.47,
(1.93,
7.86)
1.97)
2.67)
3.69)
2.33)
3.46)
-0.54
-0.68
-0.80
-0.59
-0.96
-0.77
.134)
.143)
.138)
.146)
.134)
.167)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVBNT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODELI SCSTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
I
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Average
Number Difference
of (CQ - 0,)
Events (pg/m1)
334 24.1 (+4.6)
Fraction of Noise Gross Average Correlation
Positive (Variance) Variability Absolute Coefficient
Residuals Difference
(C0> Cp) (wg/rf)' ' (»g/rf)
0.84 1184 (1023, 1390) 1762 30.3 0.29 (0.19, 0.39)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
(f(d) - fn)J max
(fraction)
0.14 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in ti«e and location)
(B-3)
1091
16.2 (+1.8)
0.88
653 (602, 712)
913
20.4
0.26 (0.20, 0.31)
-0.18 (.058)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
206
179
193
174
206
133
21.8 (46.2)
13.4 (+4.0)
16.9 (+4.9)
15.7 (+4.0)
12.4 (+1.7)
16.5 (+"5.0)
0.82
0.86
0.88
0.84
0.98
0.88
1053
632
821
632
98
644
(876, 1296)
(519, 790)
(679, 1018)
(518, 793)
(82, 121)
(514, 838)
1522
808
1101
876
252
910
26.7
20.0
21.6
20.1
13.1
21.1
0.11 (-0.02, 0.24)
0.24 (0.10, 0.37)
0.23 (0.09, 0.36)
0.45 (0.32, 0.56)
0.33 (0.20, 0.45)
0.11 (-0.06, 0.28)
0.15
-0.20
-0.20
0.18
-0.20
-0.16
(.134)
(.143)
(.138)
(.146)
(.134)
(.167)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: SCSTER AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Average Observed
Number Value
of C0
Events (lig/ffl* )
Average Predicted
Value
C
)
Difference
of_Averages
Co-Cp
(Kg/a3)
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(t(C0) - MCyJJ max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
4005
131.5
49.1
82.4 (4-5.8)
0.96 (0.88, 1.06)
-0.73 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
6238
103.4
35.7
67.7 (±3.0)
10.73 (9.75, 11.80)
-0.73 (.024)
3.
ha
T
it*
00
4.
All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 M/sec
2.5 to 5 a/sec
> 5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E & F
1465
1151
1032
1232
482
876
2127
3681
430
539
1203
3325
1171
103.2
107.1
92.1
i.o.0.2
78.6
115.9
94.4
105.7
128.5
114.2
113.4
112.7
61.6
34.1
28.9
47.8
51.4
12.2
23.7
40.7
31.4
47.7
125.1
88.3
13.6
3.3
69.1
76.2
44.3
58.8
66.4
92.2
53.7
74.3
80.8
-11.0
25.1
99.1
58.3
(+7.6)
(+9.9)
(+11.1)
(+9.2)
(+10.8)
(±9.8)
(+7.4)
(+4.9)
(+15.2)
(+23.0)
(+11.9)
(+4.2)
(+3.7)
2.02
1.38
0.38
1.22
1.02
1.18
0.76
1.33
1.47
0.34
0.66
8.69
18.04
(1.81,
(1.23,
(0.34,
(1.09,
(0.88.
(1.04,
(0.68,
(1.21,
(1.24,
(0.30,
(0.59,
(7.90,
(16.13,
2.25)
1.54)
0.42)
1.36)
1.18)
1.33)
0.84)
1.46)
1.74)
0.39)
0.74)
9.56)
20.17)
-0.66
9.84
-0.79
-0.49
-0.93
-0.89
-0.76
-0.73
-0.58
-0.45
-0.49
-0.80
-0.91
(.050)
(.057)
(.060)
(.055)
(.088)
(.065)
(.042)
(.032)
(.093)
(.083)
(.055)
(.033)
(.056)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL! SCSTER AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 4005
Bias
Average
Difference
Cp)
0.67
Noise
(Variance)
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 »/sec
2.5 to 5 »/sec
?5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A i B
Class C
Class D
Class B t F
1465
1151
1032
1232
482
876
2127
3681
430
539
1203
3325
1171
69.1 (+13.6)
78.2 (+13.7)
44.3 (+15.6)
58.8 (+15.0)
66.4 (+11.9)
92.2 (+12.0)
53.6 (+10.2)
74.3 1+7.7)
80. 8 (+22.6)
-10.9 (+32.0)
25.1 (+17.4)
99.1 (+6.4)
58.3 (+5.9)
0.83
0.92
0.88
0.76
0.96
0.93
0.87
0.87
0.79
0.68
0.71
0.92
0.95
24105 (22457,
28894 (26681,
32996 (30336,
29879 (27662,
12853 (11382,
20094 (18346,
30777 (29014,
23582 (22543,
26872 (23633,
78059 (69566,
48016 (44413,
15178 (14476,
4561 (4214,
25960)
31423)
36058)
32401)
14662)
22131)
32722)
24701)
30903)
88383)
52121)
15937)
4957)
28864
34980
34928
33321
17239
28573
33638
29096
33336
78032
48607
25000
7966
117.0
118.0
118.0
125.0
81.9
121.0
117.0
116.0
130.9
186.0
155.0
111.6
63.4
-0.10 (-0.15,
0.01 (-0.05,
-0.00 (-0.07,
-0.07 (-0.12,
0.12 (0.03,
0.08 (0.01,
-0.03 (-0.07,
-0.01 (-0.05,
-0.04 (-0.13,
-0.06 (-0.14,
-0.09 (-0.15,
-0.01 (-0.05,
-0.14 (-0.20,
-0.05)
0.07)
0.06)
-0.01)
0.21)
0.15)
0.01)
0.02)
0.05)
0.03)
-0.04)
0.02)
-0.09)
-0.20
-0.29
-0.32
-0.15
-0.31
-0.25
-0.29
-0.23
-0.13
-0.22
-0.20
-0.17
-0.26
(.050)
(.057)
(.060)
(.055)
(.088)
(.065)
(.042)
(.032)
(.093)
(.083)
(.055)
(.033)
(.056)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL) SCSTER AVERAGING TIME! 3 HOURS
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
Cp
(ug/rf )
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Averages
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
If(C0) - t(Cp)J max
(fraction)-
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
1439
108.2
39.5
68.7 (+6.5)
1.32 (1.19, 1.48)
-0.67 (.051)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
2398
as.6
30.3
55.3 (14.4)
1.45 (1.31, 1.61)
-0.65 (.039)
T
Ul
o
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2 . 5 B/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 n/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A 6 B
Class C
Class D
Class E 4 F
573
447
402
466
169
341
575
1450
373
209
467
1314
408
85.0
89.0
74.9
92.4
67.1
94.5
77.8
85.8
96.8
89.6
88.4
92.8
56.9
28.6
24.7
40.5
43.5
11.4
20.1
33.4
29.9
27.4
88.6
62.3
18.4
2.4
56.4
64.2
34.3
48.9
55.6
74.5
44.5
55.9
69.4
1.0
26.1
74.5
54.5
(+8.8)
(+10.6)
(±11.4)
(+10.6)
(+12.5)
(+.10.5)
(+9.1)
(+5.8)
(+.10.0)
(+21.8)
(+12.0)
(+5.2)
(+5.2)
2.72
1.81
0.46
1.91
1.29
1.47
1.13
1.40
3.08
0.47
0.96
4.41
20.72
(2.37,
(1.53,
(0.38,
(1.64,
(1.00,
(1.20,
(0.98,
(1.25,
(2.55,
(0.37,
(0.82,
(3.95,
(17.32,
3.13)
2.13)
0.55)
2.23)
1.67)
1,80)
1.30)
1.56)
3.74)
0.59)
1.12)
4.92)
24.80)
-0.56
-0.77
-0.71
-0.42
-0.90
-0.84
-0.65
-0.67
-0.62
-0.62
-0.40
-0.72
-0.93
(.080)
.091)
.096)
.089)
.148)
.104)
(.080)
(.051)
(.100)
(.133)
(.089)
(.053)
(.095)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELi SCSTER
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Ol
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Number
of
Data Seta Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 1439
Average
Difference
V
0.87
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(wg/m* )*
11839 (11023, 12759)
Gross
Variability
5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A fc B
Clasa C
Clasa D
Class E t F
573
447
402
466
169
341
575
1450
373
209
467
1314
408
56.4
64.2
34.4
49.0
55.6
74.5
44.5
55.8
69.4
1.0
26.1
74.5
54.5
(±13.1)
(+11.8)
(+16.1)
(+14.3)
(+10.0)
(+11.1)
(+10.7)
t+7.6)
(+13.5)
(+26.9)
(+16.0)
(+6.6)
(+6.3)
0.78
0.89
0.82
0.74
0.95
0.93
0.82
0.84
0.82
0.63
0.68
0.88
0.97
12969
12339
13885
14678
4894
8308
13035
12405
9995
26332
18608
9477
3020
(11597, 14627)
(10877, 14150)
(12160, 16048)
(12972, 16783)
(4005, 6157)
(7197, 9729)
(11658, 14698)
(11553, 13365)
(8711, 11619)
(21965, 32314)
(16447, 21273)
(8795, 10250)
(2647, 3487)
16126
16441
1S030
17044
7961
13831
14989
15519
14785
26207
19249
15015
5978
92.1
»1. 4
88.6
93.5
65.3
91.5
89.9
89.4
90.4
120.0
103.0
89.8
57.6
-0.13
0.05
-0.03
-0.09
0.29
0.16
-0.04
0.01
-0.04
-0.03
-0.06
-0.03
-0.12
(-0.21
(-0.04
(-0.13
(-0.18
(0.15,
(0.05,
(-0.12
(-0.04
(-0.14
(-0.16
(-0.15
(-0.08
(-0.21
. -0.05)
, 0.14)
, 0.07)
, -0.00)
0.42)
0.26)
, 0.04)
, 0.06)
, 0.06)
, 0.11)
, 0.04)
, 0.03)
, -0.02)
-0.15
-0.24
-0.26
0.11
-0.27
-0.21
-0.23
-0.20
-0.12
-0.17
-0.15
-0.15
-0.25
.080)
.091)
.096)
.089)
.148)
.104)
(.080)
(.051)
(.100)
(.133)
(.089)
(.053)
(.095)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: SCSTER AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
355
Average Observed
Value
Co
(ug/m* )
46.0
Average Predicted
Value
cp
(vg/af }
16.8
Difference
of Averages
Co - Co
(M9/«3)
29.2 (+4.4)
Variance
Comparison
So'/Sp'
1.72 (1.41, 2.09)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
|f(C0) - r(Cp)J max
(fraction)
-0.53 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
1138
26.7
8.2
18.5 (+1.8)
2.27 (2.03, 2.54)
-0.67 (.057)
3.
All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
¥
Ul
N)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
238
228
187
203
120
162
29.4
26.8
24.0
31.0
16.1
28.3
8.9
6.2
10.9
13.4
2.0
5.0
20.6
20.6
13.1
17.6
14.0
23.3
(+4.2)
(+3.8)
(+4.7)
(+5.4)
(+3.2)
(+4.0)
3.25 (2.60,
2.66 (2.12,
0.69 (0.54,
3.34 (2.65,
3.04 (2.24,
3.93 (3.02,
4.08)
3.33)
0.68)
4.21)
4.13)
5.12)
-0.58 I
-0.78 I
-0.70 I
-0.46 1
0.93 1
-0.77 1
(.125)
(.127)
(.141)
(.135)
1.176)
1.151)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODELS SCSTER AVERAGING TIMEt 24 HOURS
T
Cn
PetforiMince Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
e vent-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
355
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
(ng/m'V
29.2 (+;3.9)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.90
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(ng/rf >'
1104 (959, 1289)
Gross
Variability
(pg/rf )'
1952
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(ug/w1)
34.1 0.39 (0.30, 0.47)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - fn)J max
(fraction)
0.11 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1138
18.5 (+1.9)
0.88
787 (726, 856)
1130
23.7
0.24 (0.18, 0.29)
-0.17 (.057)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
238
228
187
203
120
162
20.6 (.+4.8)
20.7 (+3.6)
13.0 (+5.0)
17.6 (+"S.4)
14.0 (+2.3)
23.3 (+3.9)
0.85
0.93
O.B2
0.81
0.98
0.92
975 (822,
627 (527,
928 (767,
1094 (910,
167 (132,
588 (479,
1180)
762)
1153)
1347)
220)
743)
1394
1052
1095
1400
302
1126
26.0
24.1
23.2
25.1
14.0
25.4
0.12 (-0.00, 0.25)
0.30 (0.18, 0.41)
0.15 (0.00, 0.29)
0.34 (0.22, 0.46)
0.55 (0.41, 0.66)
0.16 (0.00, 0.30)
0.15
-0.17
-0.19
0.16
0.20
-0.13
(.125)
(.127)
(.141)
(.135)
(.176)
(.151)
-------
TABLE B. (PAUT 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVKU AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIMEf
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: 3141 AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
C
Average Predicted
Value
CP
)
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Averages
C0 - Cp
(ng/a3)
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(f(C0) - f(Cp)J max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
3583
114.9
43.6
71.3 (+5.1)
1.79 (1.62, 1.96)
-0.63 (.032)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
5673
91.4
35.1
56.3 (+3.6)
1.83 (1.67, 2.02)
-0.63 (.026)
3.
7
Ul
**
4.
All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station S
Station 6
By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/aec
2.5 to 5 H/eec
>5 in/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E & e
1397
850
1049
982
711
684
2340
2847
486
654
1068
2867
1084
92.7
99.9
90.9
101.0
58.3
98.9
85.6
90.3
124.0
88.6
101.9
99.5
61.1
32.9
45.1
33.0
52.9
12.3
28.9
35.8
34.2
37.7
104.6
81.0
13.7
4.7
•
59.8
54.8
57.9
48.1
46.0
70.0
49.8
56.1
86.3
-16.2
20.9
85.8
56.4
(+6.5)
(+10.4)
(+9.2)
(+9.1)
(+5.6)
(+.10.8)
(+5.7)
(+4.8)
(±13.2)
(+10.2)
(+7.5)
(+2.8)
(+3.6)
2.82
1.42
1.51
1.93
0.73
2.77
1.45
1.85
6.17
0.69
1.54
11.16
40.27
(2.53,
(1.25,
(1.35,
(1.72,
(0.64,
(2.43,
(1.31,
(1.68,
<5.33,
(0.62,
(1.39,
(10.15,
(36.33,
3.15)
1.61)
1.69)
2.17)
0.83)
3.16)
1.60)
2.04)
7.14)
0.77)
1.71)
12.28)
44.63)
-0.52
-0.60
-0.75
-0.32
-0.89
-0.74
-0.66
-0.60
-0.43
-0.24
-0.24
-0.75
-0.84
(.051)
(.066)
(.059)
(.061)
(.072)
(.074)
(.040)
(.036)
(.087)
(.075)
(.059)
(.036)
(.058)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIKE)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELS 3141 AVERAGING TINE: 1 HOUR
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Average Fraction of Noise Gross
Number Difference Positive (Variance) Variability
of (Co - Cp) Residuals
Data Seta Events dig/a*) (Co > Cp) (\iq/vf )' (yg/ra5 )'
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l) 3583 71.3 (V7.6) 0.84 19836 (18951, 20791) 24916
Average Correlation Frequency Distribution
Absolute Coefficient Normality Test
Difference (f(d) - fn)] nax
(M9/B* ) (fraction)
108.0 -0.20 (-0.23, -0.17) -0.18 (.032)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in ti«e and location)
(B-3)
cn
5673
56.2 (+5.4)
0.82
18234 (17583, 18926)
21393
99.2
0.03 (0.01, 0.06)
-0.20 (.026)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 a/sec
2.5 to 5 B/sec
>5 «/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A « B
Class C
Class D
Class B * F
1397
850
1049
982
711
684
2340
2847
486
654
1068
2867
1084
59.8 (+11.5)
54.8 (+15.9)
57.9 (+14.2)
48.5 (+11.8)
46.0 (+7.1)
70.0 (+17.5)
SO.O (+8.6)
56.2 (+7.0)
86.5 (+.24.8)
-16.2 (+20.3)
20.9 (+15.2)
85.8 (7 6.1)
56.4 (+8.5)
0.78
0.82
0.86
0.72
0.94
0.86
0.83
0.82
0.76
0.56
0.63
0.91
0.92
16023
23773
22865
19415
5484
20030
19608
15957
23935
33659
31683
11318
7317
(14902, 17288)
(21675, 26223)
(21036, 24969)
(17813, 21266)
(4958, 6107)
(18076, 22353)
{18535, 20787)
(15162, 16823)
(21205, 27288)
(30307, 37661)
(29169, 34570)
(10756, 11930)
(6741, 7978)
19586
26744
26202
21745
7592
24900
22100
19108
31374
33869
32091
18684
10490
99.5
113.0
104.0
104.0
63.0
104.0
99.1
94.4
127.0
130.0
125.0
96.6
61.6
-0.05 (-0.10
0.01 (-0.06
0.00 (-0.06
0.09 (0.02,
0.07 (-0.00
0.04 (-0.03
0.02 (-0.02
0.07 (0.03,
-0.12 (-0.20
0.05 (-0.03
0.00 (-0.06
0.03 (-0.01
-0.08 (-0.14
, -0.00)
, 0.08)
, 0.06)
0.15)
, 0.14)
, 0.12)
, 0.06)
0.11)
, -0.03)
i 0.13)
, 0.06)
, 0.07)
, -0.02)
0.14
-0.22
-0,26
0.10
-0.33
-0.22
-0.24
-0.19
0.11
-0.13
0.12
-0.16
-0.26
.051)
.066)
.059)
.061)
.072)
.074)
.040)
.036)
.087)
.075)
.059)
.036)
.058)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES HVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CREEK (1975)
MODEL: 3141 AVERAGING TIMES 3 HOURS
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
(vg/nf )
Difference
of_Averages
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
_
C0-
- S a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E * F
531
336
403
361
237
264
592
1268
272
226
443
1133
330
78.7
79.5
75.0
86.4
51.0
80.2
73.7
73.5
96.8
68.9
83.9
80.6
58.1
27
36
27
45
11
24
26
31
28
82
57
16
3
.7
.5
.2
.1
.9
.4
.7
.6
.1
.3
.0
.3
.4
51.0
43.0
47.8
41.3
39.1
55.8
47.0
41.9
68.7
-13.4
26.9
64.3
54.7
(+7.7)
(±11.5)
(+10.4)
(+10.5)
(+6.9)
(+11.7)
(+7.8)
(+5.3)
(+12.3)
(+16.2)
(+11.1)
(+4.7)
(+6.7)
3.45
1.49
1.80
2.23
0.71
2.93
1.89
1.73
6.12
0.93
1.73
6.36
40.92
(3.00,
(1.22,
(1.50,
(1.83,
(0.56,
(2.35,
(1.64,
(1.55,
(4.91,
(0.74,
(1.47,
(5.68,
(33.32,
3.96)
1.83)
2.16)
2.71)
0.88)
3.66)
2.17)
1.94)
7.6J)
1.16)
2.04)
7.11)
50.27)
-0.47
-0.55
-0.68
-0.32
-0.87
-0.68
-0.61
-0.56
-0.50
0.19
-0.2B
-0.68
-0.91
.083)
.105)
.096)
.101)
.125)
.118)
(.079)
(.054)
(.117)
(.128)
(.091)
(.057)
(.106)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
BO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-BY-EVBNT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELi 3141
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
1252
Average
Difference
(C0 - Cp)
(M9/-M
60.4 (±7.5)
Fraction of Noise Gross
Positive (Variance) Variability
Residuals
(Co > Cp) (|i9/»' )*" (M9/»* )*
0.85 9284 (8600, 10061) 12927
Average
Absolute
Difference
(M9/»* )
83.0
Correlation Frequency Distribution
Coefficient Normality Test
lf(d) - £„)] MX
(fraction)
0.26 (0.21, 0.31) -0.15 (.054)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tiae and location)
S »/oec
b. Stability Group
Class A i B
Class C
Class D
Class E t F
531
336
403
361
237
264
592
1268
272
226
443
1133
330
51.0
43.0
47.9
41.4
39.1
55. B
47.0
42.0
68.7
-13.3
26.9
64.3
54.7
(+11.6)
i'14.3)
(±13.9)
(+11.2)
(+7.8)
(±17.1)
(+9.8)
(+6.8)
(+16.2)
(+17.0)
(+13.8)
(+*.!>
(+10.0)
0.76
0.79
0.84
0.71
0.93
0.82
0.81
0.79
0.80
0.50
0.63
0.87
0.96
8538
11148
10868
8415
2590
8434
8678
8196
10612
12842
13473
6240
3889
(7603,
(9647,
(9519,
(731i,
(2183,
(7171,
(7773,
(7596,
(9043,
< 10783
(11871
(5758,
(3361,
9677)
13071)
12559)
9808)
3136)
10105)
9768)
8877)
12678)
, 15628)
, 15461)
6791)
4567)
11122
12966
12966
10103
4108
11517
10876
9950
15297
12964
14165
10367
6864
78.5
83.0
83.0
76.0
52.5
77.6
76.3
72.9
88.9
85.1
86.8
75.4
56.6
-0.05 (-0.14, 0.03)
-0.04 (-0.15, 0.07)
-0.04 (-0.14, 0.06)
0.21 (0.11, 0.31)
0.12 (-0.01, 0.24)
0.13 (0.01, 0.24)
0.07 (-0.01, 0.15)
0.11 (0.05, 0.16)
0.02 (-0.10, 0.13)
0.17 (0.04, 0.29)
0.06 (-0.03, 0.15)
0.08 (0.02, 0.13)
0.01 (-0.10, 0.12)
-0.1J)
-0.19
-0.19
0.07
-0.30
-0.16
-0.18
-0.17
0.13
0.09
0.12
0.14
-0.25
.083)
.105)
.096)
.101)
.125)
(.118)
(.079)
(.054)
(.117)
(.128)
(.091)
(.057)
(.106)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
802 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODELt 3141 AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Unpaired
-
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
337
Average Observed
Value
C0
(ug/m* )
38.3
Average Predicted Difference
Value of Averages
cp c0 - Cp
(lig/m* ) (ug/mj)
14.4 23.9 (+4.1)
Variance
Comparison
v/v
3.12 (2.55, 3.83)
Comparisons
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
If (C0) - f (Cp) J max
(fraction)
-0.49 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
Ln
oo
1116
22.6
7.5
15.1 (+1.7)
3.32 (2.97, 3.72)
-0.62 (.058)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
211
183
196
179
209
138
29.0
21.6
24.1
25.7
13.5
21.4
9.2
8.5
7.6
12.4
1.8
5.9
19.8
13.1
16.6
13.3
11.7
15.5
(+4.6)
(+3.9)
(+4.3)
(+4.7)
(+1.6)
(+4.3)
6.11
2.20
2.87
3.11
2.07
3.70
(4. 86.
(1.72,
(2.26,
(2.42,
(1.64,
(2.78,
7.69)
2.82)
3.63)
4.00)
2.60)
4.92)
-0.45
-0.60
-0.72
-0.42
-0.91
-0.64
.132)
.142)
.137)
.144)
.133)
.164)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODELi 3141 AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Ul
Performance
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
Number
of
Events
337
1116
211
183
196
179
209
138
Bias
Average
Difference
(C0 - Cp)
23.9
15.1
19.8
13.1
16.6
13.3
11.8
15.5
(+4.2)
(±1.8)
(+6.2)
(±3.8)
(±4.8)
(±3.6)
(+1.8)
(±4.9)
Measures - Paired Comparisons
Characteristic Discrepancies
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(CQ > Cp) (vg/tf )'
0.86
0.85
0.79
0.83
0.87
0.82
0.96
0.83
991
601
1026
566
798
488
98
584
(858,
(554,
(857,
(467,
(662,
(401,
(82,
(468,
1162)
654)
1258)
70S)
986)
610)
121)
755)
Gross
Variability
dig/*1 )'
1557
209
1411
735
1068
662
236
820
Average
Absolute
Difference
dig/** )
28. 0
19.1
25.4
18.7
20.8
17.3
12.6
19.6
Correlation Frequency Distribution
Coefficient Normality Test
lf(d) - tn)) max
(fraction)
0.39
0.30
0.14
0.24
0.19
0.61
0.31
0.12
(0.29,
(0.24,
(0.01,
(0.10,
(0.05,
(0.50,
(0.18,
(-0.05,
0.47)
0.35)
0.27)
0.37)
0.32)
0.69)
0.43)
0.28)
-0.14
0.17
0.15
0.16
0.18
0.18
-0.18
0.16
(.105)
(.058)
(.132)
(.142)
(.137)
(.144)
(.133)
(.164)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFFY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: 3141 AVERAGING TIMEl 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value '
Average Predicted
Value
(iig/rf )
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Averages
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
[t(C0) - f(Cp)l max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
4131
127.6
44.7
B2.9 (14.9)
1.90 (1.73, 2.09)
-0.60 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
en
o
6S9S
98.0
35.9
62.1 (13.4)
1.94 (1.76, 2.13)
-O.S9 (.024)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
station* (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 »/sec
>S a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E t F
1582
1198
1087
1336
497
895
2266
3872
457
617
1333
3449
1196
96.0
103.0
87.6
102.1
76.3
113.5
88.8
100.7
121.1
100.0
102.8
108.8
60.4
34
29
44
52
15
23
40
32
43
107
86
14
3
.1
.6
.7
.6
.0
.6
.9
.1
.7
.7
.0
.9
.9
61.9
73.4
42.9
49.5
61.3
89.9
47.9
68.6
77.4
-7.7
16.8
94.0
56.5
(±6.6)
1+8.7)
(*8.8)
(+7.8)
(±9.3)
(±8.6)
(+6.1)
(+4.3)
(+12.9)
(+16.0)
(+9.3)
(+4.0)
(+3.7)
3.80
2.37
0.70
2.20
1.92
2.24
1.37
2.32
3.63
0.77
1.26
15.40
24.06
(3.40,
(2.12,
(0.62,
(1.98,
(1.67,
(1.98,
(1.23,
(2.11,
(3.10,
(0.67,
(1.12.
(14.00.
(21.68,
4.21)
2.65)
0.78)
2.45)
2.21)
2.53)
1.52)
2.56)
4.24)
0.88)
1.41)
16.94)
26.71)
-0.47
-0.74
-0.70
-0.27
-0.8>
-0.83
-0.62
-0.60
-0.42
-0.22
-0.29
-0.70
-0.86
.048)
.056)
.058)
.053)
.086)
.064)
(.040)
(.031)
(.090)
(.077)
(.053)
(.033)
(.056)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVEHT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: 3141 AVERAGING TIMEt 1 HOUR
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
4131
Average
Difference
(C0 - CL)
(J»9/«'T
82.8 (+7.1)
Traction of Noise Gross Average Correlation
Positive (Variance) Variability Absolute Coefficient
Residuals Difference
(C0> Cp) (pg/rf)' (pg/rf)'
0.84 21169 (20287, 22115) 28027 117.9 0.19 (0.16, 0.22)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
If(d) - fn)] max
(fraction)
-0.16 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tistt and location)
JB-3)
T
6595 62.1 (+5.5)
0.81
20390 (19713, 21106)
24242
107.5
-0.02 (-0.04, 0.01)
-0.18 (.024)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station S
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 a/sec
2.5 to 5 a/sec
>5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A I B
Class C
Class D
Class E t r
1582
1198
1087
1336
497
895
2226
3872
457
617
1333
3449
1196
61.9 (+12.8)
73.4 (113.2)
42.9 (±13.8)
49.5 (+13.0)
(1.3 (+11.1)
89.9 (±11.7)
47.9 (49.2)
68. C (+7.3)
77.4 (+20.6)
-7.6 (+23.7)
16.8 (+15.1)
94.0 (+6.4)
56.5 (+6.0)
0.75
0.88
0.82
0.69
0.92
0.91
0.81
0.82
0.75
0.57
0.62
0.88
0.94
19698
23565
23162
21845
9933
16107
22571
18917
20564
43254
32618
14440
4427
(18399,
(21793,
(21340,
(20285,
(8812,
(14719,
(21306,
(18104,
(18160,
(38830,
(30286,
(13784,
(4094,
21153)
25584)
25253)
23611)
11307)
17721)
23963)
19791)
23534)
48563)
35258)
15149)
4807)
23517
28934
24983
24277
13672
24163
24856
23616
26504
43242
32876
23270
7620
106.1
112.4
111.0
107.8
77.8
115.4
106.9
106.6
118.5
151.1
132.5
106.0
61.7
-0.11
0.00
-0.06
-0.03
0.11
0.06
-0.04
-0.01
-0.06
-0.05
-0.08
-0.02
-0.13
(-0.16,
(-0.05,
(-0.12,
(-0.08,
(0.02,
(-0.01,
(-0.08,
(-0.04,
(-0.15,
(-0.13,
(-0.13,
(-0.05,
(-0.19,
-0.06)
0.06)
-0.01)
0.02)
0.20)
0.13)
0.01)
0.02)
0.03)
0.03)
-0.03)
0.01)
-0.07)
0.15
-0.24
-0.26
0.12
-0.27
-0.21
-0.22
-0.17
0.10
-0.12
-0.11
0.16
-0.24
(.048)
(.056)
(.058)
(.053)
(.086)
(.064)
(.040)
(.031)
(.090)
(.077)
(.053)
(.033)
(.056)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELi 3141 AVERAGING TIME: a HOURS
Performance Measures -
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
M Station 1
T Station 2
to Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 v/sec
2.5 to 5 H/sec
>5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E (, F
Number
of
Events
1469
2509
599
465
430
492
172
351
611
1514
384
228
509
1359
413
Average Observed
Value
(Mg/n* )
106.1
82.0
81.6
85.6
70.3
88.0
66.1
91.9
73.5
82.4 (
94.1
82.5
81.5
90.0
56.2
Average Predicted Difference
Value of_Averagea
r° f « f
P o ,P
(pg/«* ) (pg/m3)
36.3
30.
29.
25.
37.
45.
13.
19.
34.
29.
27.
79.
62.
19.
7
0
2
4
8
9
8
7
9
4
5
1
2
3.0
69.8
51.3
52.6
60.4
32.9
42.2
52.2
72.1
38.8
52.5
66.7
3.0
19.4
70.8
53.2
(+5.8)
(+3.9)
(+8.1)
(+9.6)
(+9.2)
(+9.6)
(+11.3)
(+9.4)
(+8.0)
1+5.1)
(+9.5)
(+16.7)
(+10.1)
(+4.9)
(+5.2)
Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
S0l /Sp1
2.44
2.39
4.50
2.82
0.82
2.99
2.13
2.67
1.77
2.37
4.84
0.99
1.64
7.29
28.94
(2.18,
(2.17,
(3.91,
(2.41,
(0.70,
(2.60.
(1.65.
(2.19,
(1.54,
(2.13,
(4.00,
(0.78,
(1.42,
(6.51,
(24.11,
2.73)
2.63)
5.17)
3.30)
0.97)
3.44)
2.75)
3.26)
2.04)
2.63)
5.86)
1.24)
1.88)
8.16)
34.72)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
lf(C0) - r(Cp)| max
(traction)
-0.58
-0.54
-0.43
-0.68
-0.60
-0.26
-0.82
-0.75
-0.52
-0.56
-0.52
-0.23
-0.24
-0.62
-0.90
(.050)
(.038)
(.079)
(.Od9j
(.093)
(.087)
(.147)
(.103)
(.078)
(.049)
(.oy8)
(.127)
(.085)
(.052)
(.095)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: 3141 AVERAGING TIMEi 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
e vent-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
1469
Average
Difference
(Co - V
(ug/mM
69.8 (±6.8)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.86
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(ng/m1)1
9883 (9208, 10642)
Gross
Variability
(pgV )'
14755
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(wg/m1 )
90.0 0.26 (0.21, 0.31)
Ktequency Distribution
Normality Teat
lf(d) - fn)J max
(fraction)
0.14 (.050)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
2509
51.3 (+5.2)
0.79
10159 (9621, 10748)
12790
83.0
-0.01 (-0.05, 0.03)
-0.15 (.038)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A * B
Class -C
Class D
Class B * F
599
465
430
492
172
351
611
1514
384
228
509
1359
413
52.5 (+11.9)
60.5 (+11.0)
32.9 (+14.2)
42.2 (+12.8)
52.3 (+10.3)
72.1 (+10.9)
38.8 (+10.0)
52.5 (+6.9)
66.7 (+13.0)
3.0 (+21.9)
19.4 (+13.6)
70.8 (+6.3)
53.3 (+6.4)
0.74
0.85
0.89
0.69
0.91
0.91
0.75
0.80
0.82
0.55
0.61
0.85
0.96
11221
10987
10251
11582
4311
7059
10589
10215
8817
16995
14204
8569
2918
(10058,
(9703,
(9010,
(10262,
(3530,
(6123,
(9501,
(9527,
(7694,
(14269,
(12618,
(7962,
(2558,
12621)
12573)
11797)
13202)
5418)
8250)
11896)
10988)
10235)
20684)
16143)
9255)
3368)
13962
14618
11308
13337
7018
12243
12079
12962
13240
16930
14552
13575
5748
84.9
86.9
80.8
83.4
62.9
86.8
81.9
82.9
85.4
100.9
91.9
84.8
56.4
-0.13 (-0.21,
0.03 (-0.06,
-0.08 (-0.17,
0.01 (-0.08,
0.26 (0.11,
0.15 (0.05,
-0.04 (-0.12,
0.01 (-0.04,
0.00 (-0.10,
-0.04 (-0.17,
-0.04 (-0.13,
0.00 (-0.05,
-0.07 (-0.17,
-0.05)
0.12)
0.01)
0.10)
0.39)
0.25)
0.04)
0.06)
0.10)
0.09)
0.05)
0.06)
0.03)
0.13
-0.19
-0.20
0.11
-0.22
-0.18
-0.17
-0.15
0.11
-0.08
-0.10
0.13
-0.22
.079)
.089)
.093)
.087)
.147)
(.103)
(.078)
(.049)
(.098)
(.127)
(.085)
(.052)
(.095)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIPTY CREEK (1976)
MODELI 3141 AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
T
Performance Measures
1.
2.
3.
Data Sets
Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in tiae and location)
(B-3)
All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
Number
of
Events
355
1161
240
234
193
208
121
165
Average Observed
Value
co
(vg/vf )
46.0
26.2
29.2
26.2
23.3
30.4
15.9
27.8
Average Predicted
Value
cp
(ug/rf )
16.1
8.7
9.6
6.5
10.3
14.9
2.7
5.2
Difference
of Averages
co - Cp
(wg/m3)
29.9 (+4.1)
17.5 (+1.8)
19.6 (+4.1)
19.7 (+3.6)
13.0 (+4.1)
15. 5 (+5.3)
13.2 (+3.1)
22.6 (+3.9)
- Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
Frequency
Distribution
Comparison
(£(C0) -
f (C0) ] max
So'/Sp1 (fraction)
2.67 (2.19,
3.01
4.12
3.63
1.13
3.64
4.23
5.67
(1.52,
(3.30,
(2.90,
(0.89,
(2.S9,
(3.11,
(4.36,
3.
5.
5.
4.
1.
4.
5.
7.
26)
96)
15)
54)
44)
59)
76)
38)
-0.47
-0.59
-0.48
-0.70
-0.60
-0.36
-0.88
-0.68
(.102)
(.056)
.124)
.126)
.1JU)
.133)
.175)
(.150)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
BO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELI 3141 AVERAGING TIME I 24 HOURS
¥
cn
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Average
1.
2.
3.
Data Sets'
Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
Number
of
Events
355
iiCl
240
234
193
208
121
165
Difference
(Co ~
(Mg/
29.9
. -, e
19.6
19.7
13.0
15.4
13.3
22.6
Cn)
•")
(+3.6)
(±1.8)
(+4.6)
(+3.5)
(+4.6)
(+4.8)
(+2.4)
(+3.8)
Characteristic Discrepancies
fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.92
0.85
0.83
0.89
0.80
0.77
0.96
0.92
Noise
(Variance)
924
691
BBS
584
747
879
179
566
(MS/*
(802,
(638,
(746,
(491,
(618,
(732,
(141,
(462,
)f
1079)
751)
1071)
709)
926)
1080)
236)
715)
Gross
Variability
(M9/rf >'
1815
998
1265
970
912
1113
354
1073
Average
Absolute
Difference
(ng/*1)
32.9
22.2
24.8
22.7
21.6
22.2
14.0
24.6
Correlation
Coefficient
0.45 (0.36,
0.30 (0.25,
0.18 (0.05,
0.32 (0.20,
0.11 (-0.03
0.50 (0.39,
0.49 (0.34,
0.15 (0.00,
0.53)
0.35)
0.30)
0.43)
, 0.25)
0.60)
0.61)
0.30)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
l£(d) - fn)J max
(fraction)
0.12 (.102)
0.14 (.056)
0.16 .124)
0.15 .126)
-0.17 .138)
0.17 .133)
-0.20 .175)
0.13 (.150)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELI 4141
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Performance Measures -
1.
2.
3.
¥
<*
5 B/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E ( P
Number
oC
Events
3615
5727
1415
855
1049
1013
711
684
2365
2876
486
654
1068
2867
1138
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value of Averages
C0 Cp C0 - Cp
(ug/rf ) (ug/rf ) (Mg/«3)
114.0
90.6
91.6
99.3
90.9
98.4
58.3
98.9
85.0
89.4
124.0
88.6
101.9
99.5
58.5
46.2
36.7
36.2
45.0
33.0
56.6
12.3
28.9
37.0
36.2
37.7
104.7
81.0
13.7
14.1
67.8
53.9
55.4
54.3
57.9
41.8
46.0
70.0
48.0
53.2
86.3
-16.1
20.9
85.8
44.4
(±5.1)
(±3.6)
(+6.5)
(+10.4)
(+9.2)
(+8.9)
(+5.6)
(±10.8)
(+5.7)
(+4.8)
(±13.2)
(+14.4)
(+10.7)
(+3.9)
(+5.2)
Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
So'/Sp'
1.77
1.81
2.63
1.42
1.51
1.96
0.73
2.77
1.44
1.'82
6.17
0.69
1.54
11.17
5.84
(1.61,
(1.65,
(2.35.
(1.26,
(1.35,
(1.75,
(0.64,
(2.43,
(1.30,
(1.65,
(5.33,
(0.60,
(1.37,
(10.15,
(5.22,
1.95)
2.00)
2.93)
1.62)
1.69)
2.20)
0.83)
3.16)
1.59)
2.01)
7.14)
0.79)
1.72)
12.31)
6.54)
Frequency Distcibucion
Comparison
U(C0) - r(Cp)| max
(traction)
-0.60
-0.59
-0.49
-0.59
-0.75
-0.26
-0.89
-0.74
-0.65
-0.57
-0.43
-0.24
-0.30
-0.75
-0.73
(.032)
(.025)
(.051)
(.066)
(.059)
(.060)
(.072)
(-074)
(.040)
(.036)
(.087)
(.075)
(.059)
(.036)
(.057)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVBNT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: 4141
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
en
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
•
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
< 2.5 a/aec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class B t f
Number
of
Events
3614
5727
1415
855
1049
1013
711
684
2365
2876
486
654
1068
2867
1138
Bias
Average
Difference
(C,, -Cp)
fog/-1)
67.7 (±7.7)
53.9 (±5.5)
55.4 (+11.7)
54.3 (+15.7)
57.9 (+14.2)
41.8 (+11.7)
46.0 (+7.1)
70.0 (+17.5)
47.9 (+8.6)
53.2 1+7.1)
86.5 (+24.7)
-16.2 (120.3)
20.9 (+15.3)
85.8 (+6.1)
44.4 (+8.9)
Characteristic Discrepancies
Fraction of Noise Gross
Positive (Variance) Variability
Residuals
(C0 > Cp) dig/a1 )' (ug/rf )'
0.82
0.81
0.76
0.81
0.86
0.68
0.97
0.86
0.82
0.81
0.76
0.56
0.63
0.91
0.86
20074 (19182,
18391 (17737,
16619 (15464,
23668 (21585,
22863 (21034,
19439 (17858,
5484 (4958,
20030 (18076,
19758 (18682,
16135 (15335,
23935 (21205,
33659 (30307,
31683 (29169,
11318 (10756,
8519 (7863,
21036)
19085)
17922)
26099)
24966)
21261)
6107)
22353)
20939)
17006)
27288)
37661)
34570)
11930)
9269)
24656
21288
19676
26586
26195
21163
7592
24900
22041
18965
31374
33869
32091
18684
10480
Average Correlation Frequency Distribution
Absolute Coefficient Normality Test
Difference |f(d) - f „) ] max
(vg/rf ) (fraction)
108.0
99.3
101.0
113.0
104.0
103.0
63.0
104.0
99.4
94.6
127.2
130.0
125.0
96.6
64.3
0.19 (0.16,
0.02 (-0.00,
-0.08 (-0.13,
-0.01 (-0.08,
0.00 (-0.06,
0.07 (0.01,
0.07 (-0.00,
0.04 (-0.03,
0.01 (-0.03,
0.06 (0.02,
-0.12 (-0.20,
0.05 (-0.03,
0.00 (-0.06,
0.03 (-0.01,
-0.10 (-0.16,
0.22)
0.05)
-0.03)
0.06)
0.06)
0.13)
0.14)
0.12)
0.05)
0.10)
-0.03)
0.13)
0.06)
0.07)
-0.05)
-0.17
-0.19
-0.14
-0.22
-0.26
0.09
-0.33
-0.22
-0.24
0.18
0.11
-0.13
-0.11
-0.16
-0.26
(.032)
(.025)
(.051)
(.066)
(.059)
(.060)
(.072)
(.074)
(.040)
(.036)
(.087)
*.Q75)
(.059)
(.036)
(.057)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: 4141
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
M Station 1
T Station 2
QO station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 a/sec
2.5 to 5 n/sec
>5 B/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E t F
Number
of
Events
1281
2179
553
336
403
386
237
264
661
1296
272
226
443
1142
368
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value o£_Averages
o ^p o "" ^p
(pg/m* ) (ng/rf )
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELS 4141
AVERAGING TIMEI 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
e vent-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2 '
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A i B
Class C
Class D
Class E i F
Number
of
Events
1281
2179
553
336
403
386
237
264
611
1296
272
226
443
1142
368
Bias
Average
Difference
(ng/s?T
56.4
44.2
45.7
42.9
47.8
34.4
39.1
55.8
44.1
39.1
68.7
-13.4
26.9
63.2
41.3
(+7.4)
(+5.3)
(+11.6)
t+14.3)
(+13.9)
(+10.8)
(+7.8)
(+17.1)
(+9.7)
{+6.8)
(+16.2)
(+16.9)
(+14.1)
(+ 6.2)
(+10.1)
Characteristic Discrepancies
Fraction of Noise Gross
Positive (Variance) Variability
Residuals
(Co > Cp) (yg/rn*)1 big/m*)*
0.82
0.78
0.72
0.79
0.84
0.66
0.93
0.82
0.78
0.77
0.80
0.50
0.63
0.87
0.85
9339
8715
8697
11148
10865
8216
2590
8434
8645
8212
10612
12842
13473
6292
4522
(8659,
(8221,
(7762,
(9647,
(9517,
(7176,
(2183,
(7171,
(7757,
(7617,
(9043,
(10783
(11871
(5808,
(3937,
10111)
9259)
9831)
13071)
12555)
9526)
3136)
10105)
9712)
8887)
12678)
, 15628)
, 15461)
6845)
5263)
12512
10663
10771
12957
13124
9380
4108
11517
10575
9732
15296
12964
14165
10282
6214
Average Correlation Frequency Distribution
Absolute Coefficient Normality Test
Difference lf(d) - fn)J max
big/a* ) (fraction)
81.3
75.0
77.3
82.9
79.0
72.6
52.5
77.6
75.0
72.1
88.9
85.1
86.8
75.0
54. 6
0.25
0.07
-0.08
0.04
0.04
0.21
0.12
0.13
0.06
0.10
0.02
0.17
0.06
0.07
-0.10
(0.20,
(0.03,
(-0.16
(-0.07
(-0.06
(0.11,
(-0.01
(0.01,
(-0.02
(0.04,
(-0.10
(0.04,
(-0.03
(0.01,
(-0.20
0.30)
0.12)
, 0.01)
. 0.15)
. 0.13)
0.30)
, 0.24)
0.24)
, 0.14)
0.15)
, 0.13)
0.29)
, 0.15)
0.12)
, 0.00)
-0.13
-0.15
0.10
-0.18
-0.23
0.07
-0.30
-0.16
-0.17
-0.15
0.13
0.09
0.12
0.14
-0.20
(.054)
(.041)
.082)
.105)
.096)
.098)
.125)
.118)
(.078)
(.053)
(.117)
(.128)
(.091)
(.057)
(.100)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODEL: 4141 AVERAGING TIMEl 24 HOURS
Perfornance Measures - Unpaired Conparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
337
Average Observed
Value
C0
(ug/rf )
38.3
Average Predicted Difference Variance
Value of_Averages Comparison
p o "" p
(vg/af ) (iig/B3) S0" /Sp1
.
15.2 23.1 (14.1) 3.00 (2.45, 3.68)
Frequency Diatrioution
Comparison
lf(Co) - t(Cp)) wax
(fraction)
-0.47 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1126
22.4
7.9
14.5 (+1.7)
3.18 (2.84, 3.55)
-0.60 (.057)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
213
183
196
187
209
138
28.7
21.6
24.1
24.7
13.5
21.4
10.1
8.6
7.6.
13.1
1.8
5.9
18.6
13.0
16.5
11.6
11.7
15.5
(+4.6)
(+3.9)
(+4.3)
(+4.6)
(+1.6)
(+4.3)
5.51
2.19
2.87
2.94
2.07
3.70
(4.38,
(1.71,
(2.27,
(2.30,
(1.64,
(2.78,
6.93)
2.80)
3.63)
3.76)
2.60)
4.92)
-0.40
-0.59
-0.72
-0.35
-0.91
-0.64
(.132)
(.142)
(.137)
(.141)
(.133)
(.164)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELj 4141
AVERAGING TIMEl 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Number
of
Data Sets* Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 337
Average
Difference
(M9/«*T
23.1 (+4.1)
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(C0 > Cp) (M9/rf )*
0.86 953 (825, 1117)
Gross
Variability
(M9/I"1 )'
1482
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(M9/"1 )
27.3 0.42 (0.33, 0.50)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - f-n)J max
(fraction)
0.13 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
T
1126
14.5 (+1.8)
0.84
596 (550, 649)
806
18.8
0.31 (0.26, 0.36)
0.17 (.057)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1 '
2
3
4
5
6
213
183
196
187
209
138
18.6 (14.7)
13.0 (+4.2)
16.6 (+4.5)
11.5 (+4.2)
11.8 (+1.6)
15.5 (+4.8)
0.77
0.83
0.87
0.76
0.96
0.83
1021
567
797
465
98
584
(853, 1250)
(467, 706)
(661, 985)
(384, 578)
(82, 121)
(468, 755)
1363
734
1068
596
236
820
24.9
18.8
20.8
16.3
12.6
19.6
0.16 (0.03. 0.29)
0.24 (0.09, 0.37)
0.19 (O.OS, 0.32)
0.62 (0.52, 0.70)
0.31 (0.18, 0.43)
0.12 (-0.05, 0.28)
0.15
0.16
0.18
0.18
-0.18
.- 0.16
(.132)
(.142)
(.137)
(.141)
(.133)
(.164)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELt 4141
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
C0
(wg/ra1 )
Average Predicted
Value
CP
(pg/ni1 )
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Averages
Co-Cp
(ng/m3f
Variance
Comparison
D 1 /CJ I
50 ' SP
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(f(C0) - t(Cp)J max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
4162
126.7
47.0
79.7 (+4.9)
1.89 (1.72, 2.08)
-0.56 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
NJ
6661
97.1
37.2
59.9 (+3.4)
1.92 (1.75, 2.12)
-0.57 (.024)
3. All concentrations,
by 'station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 »/sec
2.5 to 5 »/sec
>5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E ft F
1598
1207
1087
1377
497
895
2290
3914
457
617
1333
3449
1262
95.1
102.3
87.6
99.2
76.3
113.5
87.9
99.7
121.1
100.0
102.8
108.8
57.6
36
29
44
55
15
23
42
33
43
107
86
14
12
.9
.7
.7
.0
.0
.6
.3
.4
.7
.7
.0
.8
.2
58.2
72.6
42.9
44.2
61.3
89.9
45.6
66.3
77.4
-7.7
16.8
94.0
45.4
(+6.6)
(+8.7)
(+8.8)
(+7.6)
(+9.3)
(+8.6)
(+6.0)
(+4.3)
(+12.8)
(+16.0)
(+9.3)
(+4.0)
(+3.9)
3.51
2.37
0.70
2.24
1.93
2.24
1.36
2.30
3.63
0.77
1.26
15.40
3.63
(3.15,
(2.12,
(0.62,
(2.00,
(1.67,
(1.98,
(1.23,
(2.09,
(3.09,
(0.67,
(1.13,
(14.00
(3.25,
3.92)
2.65)
0.78)
2.50)
2.22)
2.53)
1.50)
2.53)
4.25)
0.88)
1.40)
, 16.94)
4.05)
-0.45
- -0.73
-0.70
-0.22
-0.83
-0.83
-0.61
-0.57
-0.42
-0.22
-0.29
-0.70
-0.77
.048)
.055)
.058)
.052)
.086)
.064)
(.040)
(.031)
(.090)
(.077)
(.053)
(.033)
(.054)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: 4141
AVERAGING TIME! 1 HOUR
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Number
of
Data Seta Events
1. Highest concentration,
e vent-by-event (A-l) 4162
Average
Difference
Cp) big/a1)'
0.83 21517 (20624, 22475)
Gross
Variability
fog/*1 )'
27864
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(yg/rf )
117.8 0.18 (0.15, 0.21)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - fn)] max
(fraction)
-0.15 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
6661
59.9 (+5.6)
0.80
20530 (19852, 21247)
24116
107.5
-0.03 (-0.05, -0.01)
-8.18 (.024)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1 ,
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 M/MC
2.5 to 5 »/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class B t F
1598
1207
1087
1377
497
895
2290
3914
457
617
1333
3449
1262
58.2
72.6
42.9
44.2
61.3
89.9
45.6
66.2
77.4
-7.6
16.8
94.0
45.4
(+13.0)
(+9.7)
(+13.8)
(112.9)
(+11.1)
(+11.7)
(+9.3)
(+7.3)
(+20.7)
(+23.7)
(+15.1)
(+6.4)
(+7.0)
0.74
0.88
0.82
0.65
0.92
1.00
0.79
0.92
0.75
0.57
0.62
0.88
0.87
20336
23458
23162
21672
9933
16107
22737
19050
20564
43254
32618
14440
5773
(19001, 21831)
(21701, 25460)
(21340, 25253)
(20146, 23396)
(8812, 11307)
(14719, 17721)
(21479, 24119)
(18235, 19926)
(18152, 23545)
(38830, 48563)
(30286, 35258}
(13784, 15149)
(5349, 6254)
23713
28715
24980
23611
13672
24163
24800
23433
26504
43242
32876
23270
7826
107.6
111.7
111.0
106.8
77.8
115.4
107.3
106.4
118.5
151.1
132.5
106.0
64.2
-0.13 (-0.18, -0.08)
0.00 (-0.06, 0.06)
-0.06 (-0.12, -0.00)
-0.04 (-0.09, 0.01)
0.11 (0.02, 0.20)
0.06 (-0.01, 0.13)
-0.05
-0.02
-0.06
-0.05
-0.08
-0.02
-0.17
-0.09,
-0.05,
-0.15,
-0.13,
-0.13,
-0.05,
-0.22,
-0.01)
0.01)
0.03)
0.03)
-0.03)
0.01)
-0.12)
0.14
-0.24
-0.26
0.12
-0.27
-0.21
-0.22
-0.16
0.10
-0.12
-0.11
0.16
-0.25
(.048*
(.055)
(.058)
(.052)
(.086)
(.064)
(.040)
(.031)
(.090)
(.077)
(.053)
(.033)
(.054)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1} COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: 4141
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
*>.
Performance Measures
Data Seta
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in ti»e and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 «/sec
2.5 to 5 m/eec
>5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class 0
Class B t F
Number
or
Events
1487
2546
610
465
430
518
172
351
622
1540
384
228
509
1364
445
Average Observed
Value
Co
(ug/rf )
104.9 •
80.9
BO. 2
85.6
70.3
83.9
66.1
91.9
72.3
81.1
94.1
82.5
81.5
89.7
52.6
Average Predicted Difference
Value of Averages
Cp C0 - Cp
(ug/rf ) (wg/»3>
38
31
31
25
37
46
13
19
35
31
.1
.6
.2
.2
.4
.8
.9
.8
.4
.1
27.6
79
.5
62.1
19.6
9.0
66.8
49.3
49.0
60.4
32.9
37.1
52.2
72.1
36.9
50.0
66.5
3.0
19.4
70.1
43.6
(+5.8)
(±3.9)
(+8.1)
(+9.6)
(+9.2)
(+9.2)
(+11.3)
(+9.4)
(+7.9)
(+5.1)
(±9.4)
(±16.6)
(+10.1)
(+4.9)
(+5.3)
- Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
S0'/V
2.45
2.39
4.20
2.82
0.82
3.12
2.13
2.67
1.78
2.36
4.82
0.99
1.64
7.16
5.18
(2.19,
(2.16,
(3.65,
(2.41,
(0.69,
(2.71,
(1.65,
(2.19,
(1.55,
(2.12,
(4.00,
(0.79,
(1.42,
(6.42,
(4.40,
2.73)
2.64)
4.83)
3.29)
0.97}
3.59)
2.76)
3.26)
2.05)
2.63)
5.82;
1.24)
1.88)
8.00)
6.11)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(f(C0) - f(Cp)| max
(fraction)
-0.54
-0.51
-0.39
-0.68
-0.60
-0.18
-0.82
-0.75
-0.50
-0.53
-0.5^
-0.23
-0.24
-0.62
-0.74
(.050)
(.038)
(.078)
(.089)
(.093)
t.085)
(.147)
(.103)
(.077)
(.049)
(.098)
(.127)
(.085)
(.052)
(.091)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: 4141
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measure! - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Ntnbec
of
Dat* Sets Events
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l) 1487
Average
Difference
(Co -Cp)
<»9/»n
66. B (+6.9)
Fraction oC
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.84
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(ug/rf)1
10049 (9367, 10816)
Gross
Variability
(gg/rf )'
14510
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
tog/*)
89.0 0.24 (0.19, 0.29)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
(f(d) - fn)J max
(fraction)
0.13 (.050)
2. All concentrations,
all station* (paired
in tina and location)
(B-3)
tn
2546 49.3 (±5.3)
0.78
10206 (9669, 10793)
12636
82.5
-0.01 (-0.05, 0.03)
-0.14 (.038)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1,
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 »/sec
>5 »/*ec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E * F
610
465
430
518
172
351
622
1540
384
228
509
1364
445
49.0 (+12.2)
60.4 (±9. 2)
32.9 (±14.1)
37.0 (4-12.3)
52.3 (+10.3)
72.1 (+10.9)
37.0 (+10.0)
50.0 (+6.9)
66.5 (+12.9)
3.0 (+21.8)
19.4 (+13.7)
70.1 (+ 6.3)
43.6 (+7.2)
0.73
0.85
0.76
0.64
0.91
0.91
0.73
0.78
0.82
O.SS
0.61
0.85
0.87
11532
10988
10250
11240
4311
7059
10570
10274
8848
16995
14204
8623
3602
(10346, 12956)
(9710, 12566)
(9014, 11788)
(9774, 12926)
(3534, 5411)
(6127, 8246)
(9493, 11862)
(9588, 11044)
(7726, 10263)
(14281, 20663)
(12618, 16143)
(8013, 9312)
(3174, 4132)
13917
14612
11306
12589
7018
12243
11920
12771
13253
16930
14552
13532
5499
85.1
86.8
80.7
80.5
62.9
86.8
81.3
82.2
85.5
100.9
91.9
84.7
55.4
-0.15 (-0.23
0.03 (-0.06
-0.08 (-0.17
0.02 (-0.07
0.26 (0.11,
0.15 (0.05,
-0.05 (-0.13
0.00 (-0.05
0.00 (-0.10
-0.04 (-0.17
-0.04 (-0.13
0.00 (-0.05
-0.15 (-0.24
, -0.07)
, 0.12)
. 0.01)
, 0.11)
0.39)
0.25)
, 0.03)
, 0.05)
, 0.10)
, 0.09)
, 0.05)
, 0.05)
, -0.06)
0.12
-0.19
-0.20
0.10
-0.22
-0.18
-0.16
-0.15
0.11
-0.08
-0.10
0.13
-0.22
.078)
.089)
.093)
.085)
.147J
.103)
(.077)
(.049)
(.098)
(.127)
(.085)
(.052)
(.091)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: 4141
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Average Observed
Number Value
Data Sets of C0
Events (Mg/rf )
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 355 46.0
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Average Predicted Difference Variance Frequency Distribution
Value of Averages Comparison Comparison
Cp C0 - Cp U(C0) - f(CpM max
(ug/irf) (wg/m3) S0« /6p« (fraction)
16.8 29.2 (M.I) 2.55 (2.09, 3.10) -0.46 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1169
26.1
9.0
17.1 (+1.8)
2.87 (2.56, 3.21)
-0.57 (.056)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
, Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
243
234
193
213
121
165
28.9
26.2
23.3
29.7
15.9
27.8
10.4
6.6
10.4
15.6
2.7
5.2
18.5
19.6
12.9
14.1
13.2
22.6
(+4.1)
(+3.6)
(+4.1)
(+5.2)
(+3.1)
(+3.9)
3.60
3.61
1.13
3.47
4.23
5.67
(2.87,
(2.88,
(0.89,
(2.76,
(3.12,
(4.37,
4.50)
4.53)
1.43)
4.36)
5.75)
7.37)
-0.46
-0.69
-0.60
-0.30
-0.88
-0.68
(.123)
(.126)
(.138)
(.132)
(.175)
(.150)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BX-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: 4141
AVERAGING TIMEI 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Data Sets
*
1. Highest concentration.
e vent-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
355
Average
Difference
•Co' V
(pg/rf)
29.2 (+3.5)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
V
0.91
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(M9/»* )*
911 (791, 1063)
Gross
Variability
(ng/iri1)'
1760
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
uig/m1)
32.3 0.46 (0.37, 0.54)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
[f(d) - fn)l max
(traction)
0.11 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1169 17.0 (+1.8)
0.84
696 (643, 756)
985
22.1
0.30 (0.25, 0.35)
0.14 (.056)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
243
234
193
213
121
165
18.5 (+4.4)
19.6 (+3.5)
13.0 (+4.6)
14.1 (+4.7)
13.3 (+2.4)
22.6 (+3.8)
0.82
0.89
0.80
0.73
0.96
0.92
915 (773,
586 (493,
748 (620,
861 (719,
179 (142,
566 (462,
1105)
711)
926)
1054)
236)
714)
1254
968
912
1055
354
1073
24. B
22.6
21.6
21.6
14.0
24.6
0.17 (0.05, 0.29)
0.32 (0.20, 0.43)
0.11 (-0.03, 0.25)
0.51 (0.40, 0.60)
0.49 (0.34, 0.61)
0.15 (-0.00, 0.30)
0.15
0.15
-0.17
0.16
-0.20
0.13
(.123)
(.126)
(.138)
(.132)
(.175)
(.150)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
o£_Averages
Co-Cp
(M9/m3)
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(£(C0) - r(Cp)] max
(traction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
3543
116.1
47.9
68.2 (+5.9)
0.96 (0.87, 1.05)
-0.71 (.032)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
00
5759
90.0
44.1
45.9 (+4.1)
0.95 (0.86, 1.05)
-0.60 (.025)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 a/sec
2.5 to 5 •/sec
>5 n/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A * B
Class C
Class D
Class B t F
1359
880
1089
987
715
729
2507
2813
439
802
1186
2758
1013
95.0
96.5
87.8
100.4
58.0
93.0
80.4
91.2
136.7
72.8
92.3
103.1
65.0
36.4
53.4
48.2
64.8
14.2
42.5
56.5
36.0
25.0
124.6
113.9
6.8
0.3
58.6 (+7.4)
43.1 (+11.0)
39.6 (+11.2)
35.6 (+10.9)
43.8 (+5.7)
50.5 (+.11.3)
23.9 (+6.4)
55.2 (+5.4)
111.7 (+16.2)
-51.8 (+13.0)
-21.6 (+12.6)
96.3 (+4.0)
64.7 (+5.2)
1.45 (1.29, 1.61)
1.02 (0.90, 1.15)
0.62 (0.55, 0.69)
0.84 (0.75, 0.94)
0.70 (0.61, 0.79)
1.63 (1.43, 1.86)
0.74 (0.67, 0.82)
1.07 (0.97, 1.18)
1.86 (1.57, 2.20)
0.58 (0.51, O.b6)
0.58 (0.52, 0.65)
13.85 (12.56, 15.27)
1804.50 (1611.16, 2021.04)
-0.^9 .052)
-0.54 .065)
-0.68 .058)
-0.43 .061)
-0.87 .072)
-0.58 (.071)
-0.54 (.038)
-0.67 (.036)
-0.66 (.092)
0.27 (.068)
-0.13 (.056)
-0.88 (.037)
-1.00 (.060)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVBNT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
X
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>S m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A fc B
Class C
Class D
Class E d F
Number
of
Events
3543
5759
1359
880
1089
987
715
729
2507
2813
439
802
1186
2758
1013
Bias
Characteristic Discrepancies
Average Fraction of Noise Gross
Difference Positive (Variance) Variability
(C0 - CU) Residuals
(wg/w'T (C0> Cp) (ng/nf)x uig/m1 )*
68.2 (18.8)
45.8 (16.2)
58.6 (112.9)
43.1 (+15.8)
39.6 (+15.1)
35.6 (+17.3)
43.8 (+7.1)
50.6 (+18.2)
23.8 (+9.8)
55.2 (+7.7)
111.7 (124.4)
-51.8 (+17.9)
-21.6 (+16.3)
96.3 (+5.8)
64.7 (+8.5)
0.85
0.80
0.80
0.77
0.81
0.71
0.93
0.79
0.75
0.83
0.86
0.41
0.52
0.95
1.00
27410
24536
20845
28030
31442
32520
5244
24619
27947
19452
30087
34209
46504
11261
7213
(26180,
(23666,
(19368,
(25596,
(28970,
(29843,
(4743,
(22287,
(26467,
(18477,
(26494,
(31108,
(42991,
(10691,
(6626,
28737)
25460)
22515)
30865)
34277)
35611)
5838)
27377)
29567)
20514)
34548)
37847)
50510)
11882)
7889)
32053
26633
24262
29853
32981
33754
7159
27142
28504
22489
42501
36845
46932
20533
11390
Average Correlation Frequency Distribution
Absolute Coefficient Normality Test
Difference lf(d) - fn)h max
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIKE)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIMEs 3 HOURS
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
C
Average Predicted
Value
Pertornance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Averages
co - cp
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
IC(C0) - t(Cp)l wax
(ttaction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
1256
95.8
40.0
55.8 (+6.9)
1.10 (0.99, 1.23)
-0.66 (.054)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
2205
74.1
37.4
36.7 (+4.6)
1.11 (1.00, 1.23)
-0.53 (.041)
3.
M
CO
o
4.
All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 a/sec
2.5 to 5 ra/aec
>5 n/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E & F
521
348
425
388
241
282
656
1290
259
274
485
1126
320
79.9
76.9
71.5
80.7
50.2
75.3
67.1
72.3
101.0
57.5
77.2
80.9
59.6
31.0
43.7
40.0
53.3
13.9
35.9
46.4
36.8
17.7
96.7
83.4
13.8
0.3
48.9
33.2
31.5
27.4
36.3
39.4
20.7
35.5
83.3
-39.2
-6.2
67.1
59.3
(+8.6)
(+11.9)
(+12.3)
(+11.8)
(+6.9)
(+10.3)
(+8.4)
(+5.9)
(±13.2)
(+14.9)
(+12.7)
(+4.9)
(+6.8)
•.
1.73
1.17
0.73
1.03
0.69
1.00
0.94
0.97
3.92
U.74
0.75
4.62
1925.00
(1.51
(0.95
(0.61
(0.86
(0.55
(0.81
(0.82
(0.87
(3.14
(0.59
(0.65
(4.13
(1552
, 1.99)
, 1.42)
, 0.87)
. 1-25)
, 0.87)
, 1.25)
, 1.08)
, 1.08)
, 4.89)
. 0.92)
, 0.87)
, 5.16)
.42, 2387.00)
-0.55
-0.49
-0.59
-0^35
-0.81
-0.52
-0.43
-0.55
-0.72
0.30
-0.13
-0.76
-1.00
(.084)
;.io3)
(.093)
(.098)
(.124)
(.115)
(.075)
(.054)
(.120)
(.116)
(.087)
(.057)
(.108)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELI TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIMEt 3 HOURS
00
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
1256
Average
Difference
(wg/nO
55.8 (+8.5)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.84
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise Gross
(Variance) Variability
(jig/m* )' (pg/n1 )'
12439 (11524, 13478) 15546
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(vg/af)
90.1 0.21 (0.16, 0.26)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
(r(d) - tn)J max
(fraction)
-0.19 (.054)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in ti»e and location)
(B-3)
2205
36.7 (+6.1)
0.76
11427 (10783, 12136)
12768
81.2
0.05 (0.01, 0.09)
-0.18 (.041)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1 '
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 at/sec
2.5 to 5 M/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E & F
521
348
425
388
241
282
656
1290
259
274
485
1126
320
48.9
33.2
31.4
27.4
36.3
39.5
20.7
35.5
83.4
-39.1
-6.1
67.2
59.2
(+12.8)
(+15.4)
(+14.5)
(+16.3)
(+8.2)
(+18.2)
(+11.2)
1+5.2)
(+17.0)
(+16.2)
(+13.4)
(+ 6.6)
(+10.4)
0.78
0.74
0.77
0.67
0.90
0.74
0.69
0.77
0.89
0.34
0.52
0.90
1.00
10713
12708
14257
14290
2337
10459
12195
10418
11760
14823
16852
7184
3842
(9529.
(11024,
(12529,
(12486,
(1973,
(8937,
(10982,
(9662,
(9984,
(12639,
(14928,
(6628,
(3313,
12157)
14856)
16410)
16561)
2825)
12453)
13642)
11276)
14116)
17697)
19215)
7820)
4523)
13084
13773
15212
15003
3647
11979
12603
11668
18663
16300
16855
11690
7340
85.5
83.9
81.3
93.0
50.3
79.9
82.1
77.3
98.3
92.1
91.1
80. 5
59.2
-0.06 (-0.15, 0.03)
0.01 (-0.10, 0.12)
0.15 (0.06, 0.24)
-0.02 (-0.12, 0.08)
0.22 (0.10, 0.34)
0.04 (-0.08, 0.16)
0.00 (-0.08, 0.08)
0.11 (0.06, 0.16)
-0.01 (-0.13, 0.11)
0.07 (-0.05, 0.19)
0.18 (0.09, 0.26)
-0.05 (-0.11, 0.01)
0.06 (-0.05, 0.17)
-0.15
-0.18
-0.22
-0.12
-0.28
-0.16
-0.18
-0.19
-0.16
-0.10
0.09
-0.17
-0.28
(.084)
(.103)
(.093)
(.098)
(.124)
(.115)
(.075)
(.054)
(.120)
(.116)
(.087)
(.057)
(.108)
-------
TABLE D. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
1.
Data Sets
Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Average Observed
Number Value
of C0
Events fug/a* )
335 38.5
Performance Measures - Unpaired
Average Predicted Difference Variance
Value of Averages Comparison
Cp C0 - Cp
(ng/nf ) (pg/m3) s0* /sp'
16.3 22.2 (±4.4) 2.06 (1.68, 2.53)
Comparisons
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(f(C0) - i(Cp)| max
(traction)
-0.50 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1132
22.3
9.3
13.0 (±1.7)
2.15 (1.92. 2.41)
-0.57 (.057)
3.
All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
¥
00
to
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
216
184
198
185
208
141
28.3
21.5
23.9
24.9
13.6
21.0
9.8
10.5
10.9
14.4
2.0
9.0
18.5
11.0
13.0
10.5
11.6
12.0
(+4.7)
(+4.0)
(+4.8)
(+4.9)
(±1-7)
(+4.4)
4.11 (3.27,
1.81 (1.41,
1.56 (1.23,
1.84 (1.44,
1.63 (1.30,
2.48 (1.87,
5.16)
2.32)
1.97)
2.36)
2.05)
3.29)
-0.44
-0.54
-0.61
-0.44
-0.90
-0.51
(.131)
(.142)
(.137)
(.141)
(.133)
(.162)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODELI TEM-8A AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
i. Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
e vent-by-event (A-l) 335
Average
Difference
(C0 - C_)
22.2 (+4.8)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
1C > P 1
\**O T?
0.84
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(pg/m« )•
1181 (1022, 1385)
Gross
Variability
1670
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
dig/*1)
29.3 0.31 (0.21, 0.40)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - fn)J max
(fraction)
0.13 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
00
u>
1132 13.0 (+1.9)
0.81
689 (636, 750)
856
19.8
0.25 (0.19, 0.30)
0.15 (.057)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
216
184
198
185
208
141
18.6 (46.1)
11.0 (+4.4)
13.0 (+4.4)
10.6 (+5.1)
11.6 (+1.7)
12.0 (+5.4)
0.77
0.80
0.82
0.74
0.96
0.76
1119
640
791
785
104
649
(936,
(528,
(657,
(648,
(87,
(522,
1368)
797)
977)
977)
128)
836)
1459
758
956
893
237
788
25.5
18.8
20.6
20.9
12.8
19.6
0.09 (-0.04, 0.22)
0.18 (0.04, 0.32)
0.32 (0.19, 0.44)
0.35 (0.22, 0.47)
0.31 (0.18, 0.43)
0.10 (-0.07, 0.26)
0.14
0.15
0.17
0.13
-0.20
0.14-
.131)
.142)
.137)
.141)
.133)
.162)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: TEM-8A AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
CP
(lig/m1 )
Difference
of_Averages
c* _ t*
o V:p
(wg/m3)
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
[f(C0) - rtCp)] max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
4075
129.2
40.3
88.9 (+5.0)
1.70 (1.55, 1.87)
-0.71 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
6558
98.5
36.1
62.4 (±3.5)
1.73 (1.57, 1.90)
-0.62 (.024)
3. All concentrations,
m by station (B-l)
T Station 1
9° Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E t F
1494
1230
1110
1273
514
937
2407
3733
418
743
1426
3259
1130
101.
100.
85.
106.
74.
108.
83.
104.
131.
83.
96.
114.
63.
3
5
9
7
0
6
9
2
7
7
5
8
7
30.1
30.5
42.8
49.7
19.1
35.8
54.1
25.9
22.9
120.2
86.5
6.8
1.4
71.2
70.0
43.1
57.0
54.9
72.8
29.8
78.3
108.8
-36.5
10.0
108.0
62.3
(+7.1)
(+8.3)
(+8.2)
(+8.6)
(+9.3)
(±9.2)
(+6.4)
(+4.2)
(+13.2)
(+13.7)
(+9.0)
(+4.1)
(+3.9)
2.89
2.86
0.83
1.54
1.68
1.32
0.92
3.23
4.41
0.81
1.19
19.95
12.34
(2.59,
(2.55,
(0.74,
(1.37,
(1.46,
(1.17,
(0.83,
(2.94,
(3.70,
(0.71,
(1.07,
(18.14
(11.03
J.22)
3.19)
0.93)
1.72)
1.94)
1.49)
1.02)
3.56)
5.25)
0.92)
1.33)
, 21.94)
, 13.80)
-0.59
-0.69
-0.64
-0.47
-0.77
-0.70
-0.53
-0.70
-0.65
0.20
-0.19
-0.87
-0.99
.050)
.055)
.05tt)
.054)
.085)
.063)
-
(.039)
(.031)
(.094)
(.071)
(.051)
(.034)
(.057)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELI TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIMEI 1 hour
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
t
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
4075
Average
Difference
(Po - Cp)
(M9/«'T
89.0 (±7.8)
Fraction oC
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.88
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(M9/"1 )'
23932 (22928, 25009)
Gross
Variability
(H9/*1 )*
31843
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(P9/V )
126.6 0.11 (0.08, 0.14)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
[f (d) - «„)) B*X
(traction)
-0.20 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
6558 62.4 (±5.8)
0.82
21968 (21236, 22742)
25863
111.1
-0.06 (-0.08, -0.04)
-0.20 (.024)
T
00 3. All concentrations.
1/1 by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By •eteorologlcal
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 B/sec
2.5 to 5 si/sec
>5 «/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A i B
Class C
Class D
Class B t F
1494
1230
1110
1273
514
937
2407
3733
418
743
1426
3259
1130
71.2 (±13.5)
70.1 (+12.8)
43.1 (+13.7)
57.0 (+16.0)
54.9 (+11.6)
72.8 (+12.7)
29.8 (±10.3)
78.3 (+7.0)
108.8 (±20.0)
-36.5 (+21.5)
10.0 (+13.9)
108.0 (+6.3)
62.3 <«.9)
0.81
0.85
0.80
0.76
0.90
0.85
0.74
0.86
0.88
0.44
0.57
0.95
0.99
22308
21891
20899
28206
11309
19455
27250
17630
19889
38180
31633
14596
4524
(20797,
(20266,
(19271,
(26145,
(10052,
(17814,
(25778,
(16859,
(17461,
(34595,
(29442,
(13914,
(4174,
24007)
23740)
22764)
30545)
12845)
21357)
28864)
18461)
22920)
42413)
34103)
15334)
4924)
27363 /-
26784
22739
31438
14305
24729
28129
23750
31677
39463
31710
26259
8399
114.7
108.3
104.1
126.2
81.1
113.3
111.4
108.9
129.4
143.7
123.8
114.2
64.6
-0.15 (-0.20, -0.10)
0.02 -0.04, 0.08)
-0.07 -0.13, -0.01)
-0.15 -0.20, -0.10)
0.02 -0.07, 0.11)
0.06 -0.00, 0.12)
-0.07 (-0.11, -0.03)
-0.02 (-0.05, 0.01)
-0.06 (-0.16, 0.04)
-0.05 (-0.12, 0.02)
-0.06 (-0.11, -0.01)
-0.06 (-0.09, -0.03)
-0.05 (-0.11. 0.01)
-0.17
-0.22
-0.23
-0.16
-0.27
-0.21
-0.21
-0.19
-0.11
0.08
0.10
-0.18
-0.28
(.050)
(.055)
(.058)
(.054)
(.085)
(.063)
(.039)
(.031)
(.094)
(.071)
(.051)
(.034)
(.057)
-------
TABLE 8. (PART 1} COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
CP
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of _Ave rages
(ug/
Cp
3F
Variance
. Comparison
S0'/Spl
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
(f(C0) - f(Cp)J max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
1468
106.3
33.0
73.3 (+5.9)
2.11 (1.90, 2.36)
-0.66 (.050)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in ti»e and location)
(B-3)
00
2534
81.3
30.5
50.8 (44.0)
2.11 (1.91, 2.33)
-0.54 (.038)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 •/sec
2.5 to 5 •/sec
>5 si/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class E i F
569
482
434
498
185
366
667
1504
363
263
552
1319
400
85.6
82.9
69.8
86.9
61.9
88.3
67.9
82.9
99.2
72.2
75.6
92.5
58.0
25.6
25.7
36.0
41.1
17.1
30.0
47.7
26.9
13.7
88.4
64.0
13.8
1.1
60.0
57. 2
33.8
45.8
44.8
58.3
20.2
56.0
85.5
-16.2
11.6
78.7
56.9
(+8.6)
(+9.3)
(+9.1)
(+9.9)
(+10.6)
(+9.9)
(+8.5)
(+5.0)
(+9.3)
(+15.5)
(+9.5)
(+5.0)
(+5.2)
3.45
3.09
0.82
2.19
2.39
1.80
1.04
2.84
8.88
0.88
1.74
7.21
27.96
(3.00,
(2.67,
(0.70,
(1.91,
(1.87.
(1.48,
(0.91,
(2.54,
(7.30,
(0.71,
(1.51,
(6.45,
(23.29,
3.97)
3.58)
0.98)
2.53)
3.05)
2.18)
1.18)
3.16)
10.79)
1.10)
2.00)
8.05)
33.56)
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
0.
-0.
-0.
-0.
57
62
56
37
70
62
39
59
76
17
16
75
98
(.081)
.088)
.092)
.086)
.141)
.101)
(.074)
(.050)
(.101)
(.119)
(.082)
(.053)
(.096)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
.
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
e vent-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
1468
Average
Difference
(Po - Cp)
(P9/«M
73.3 (±7.5)
Fraction of Noise Gross
Positive (Variance) Variability
Residuals
(CQ > Cp) (pg/m* )* (tig/m1 )*
0.87 11386 (10608, 12261) 16752
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(lig/m1 )
95.8 0.16 (0.11, 0.21)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
If (a) - fn)J wax
(fraction)
-a. 16 (.050>
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
2534 50.B (±5.4)
0.79
10892 (10318, 11520)
13472
84.7
-0.04 (-0.08, -0.00)
-0.16 (.038)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
f Station 2
00 Station 3
"J Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A * B
Class C
Class D
Class B * F
569
482
434
498
185
366
667
1504
363
263
552
1319
400
60.0 (+12.3)
57.2 (+10.8)
33.8 (+13.2)
45.8 (+15.4)
44.7 (+11.5)
58.3 (±11.4)
20.2 (+10.9)
56.1 (+6.7)
85.5 (+12.4)
-16.2 (+18.3)
11.6 (+12.4)
78.8 (±6.4)
56.9 (±6.4)
0.80
0.80
0.75
0.73
0.86
0.84
0.66
0.82
0.91
0.44
0.55
0.90
0.99
12559
10142
10314
14623
4964
7390
12837
9929
8323
16627
12834
9042
2927
(11226, 14171)
(8981, 11569)
(9076, 11853)
(12974, 16644)
(4096, 6177)
(6432, 8604)
(11570, 14347)
(9258, 10683)
(7240, 9697)
(14133, 19928)
(11453, 14509)
(8392, 9778)
(2563, 3384)
16137
13395
11435
16694
6939
10763
13226
13064
15611
16827
12946
15242
6154
93.3
82.0
77.1
95.0
63.3
80.8
82.8
83.3
94.2
96.7
83.2
90.9
58.6
-0.18
O.OB
-0.09
-0.16
0.09
0.22
-0.03
-0.01
-0.04
-0.01
0.01
-0.08
-0.09
-
(-0.26,
(-0.01,
(-0.18,
(-0.24,
(-0.05,
(0.12,
(-0.11,
(-0.06,
(-0.14,
(-0.13,
(-0.07,
(-0.13,
(-0.19,
-0.10)
0.17)
0.00)
-0.07)
0.23)
0.32)
0.05)
0.04)
0.06)
0.11}
0.09)
-0.03)
0.01)
-0.15
-U.16
-0.18
-0.12
-0.23
-0.16
-0.15
-0.16
0.13
-0.06
0.09
-0.15
-0.26
(.081)
(.088)
(.092)
(.086)
(.141)
(.101)
(.074)
(.050)
(.101)
(.119)
(.082)
(.053)
(.096)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: TEM-BA AVERAGING TIMEs 24 HOURS
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
CP
(ug/rf )
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Averagee
Co 'Co
(M9/»35
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
If (C0) - t(Cv)} max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
355
46.0
14.6
31.4 (±4.0)
3.06 (2.51, 3.73)
-0.51 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in ti«e and location)
(B-3)
CO
1171
26.0
8.5
17.5 (+1.7)
3.29 (2.94, 3.68)
-0.57 (.056)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
238
234
192
214
125
168
29.4
26.2
23.4
29.6
15.5
27.3
8.1
6.7
9.7
13.0
3.4
8.2
21.3
19.5
13.7
16.6
12.1
19.1
(+4.1)
<±3.6)
(+3.8)
(+5.2)
(+3.0)
(+4.1)
4.50
3.86
1.56
3.79
4.90
2.78
(3.59,
(3.08,
(1.23,
(3.02,
(3.62,
(2.14,
5.64)
4.83)
1.98)
4.77)
6.62)
3.60)
-0.61
-0.68
-0.55
-0.37
-0.76
-0.57
(.125)
(.126)
(.139)
(.131)
(.172)
(.148)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODELj TEM-8A
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
e vent-by-event (A-l) 355
Average
Difference
(C0 - Cp)
(ng/m'T
31.3 (+4.3)
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(C0 > Cp) hig/m* )l
0.89 1189 (1033, 1388)
Gross
Variability
2167
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(\><3/af)
34.8 0.23 (0.13, 0.33)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
(f(d) - tn)] max
(fraction)
0.14 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1171 17.6 (±1.9)
0.84
774 (715, 641)
1082
22.8
0.18 (0.12, 0.23)
0.14 (.056)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
^ station
00 Station
^° Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
238
234
192
214
125
168
21.4 (+4.7)
19.5 (+3.5)
13.8 (+4.4)
16.6 (+6.1)
12.1 (+2.6)
19.1 (+3.8)
0.86
0.87
0.80
0.75
0.92
0.88
946 (798, 1145)
568 (478, 689)
645 (534, 799)
1369 (1144, 1676)
218 (173, 286)
571 (467, 719)
1398
946
831
1639
364
933
26.7
22.3
20.2
26.8
13.9
22.7
0.09
0.34
0.12
0.09
0.30
0.25
(-0.04, 0.21)
(0.22, 0.45)
(-0.02, 0.26)
(-0.04, 0.22)
(0.13, 0.45)
(0.10, 0.39)
0.16
0.16
-0.13
0.17
-0.18
0.13
(.125)
(.126)
(.139)
(.131)
1.172)
(.148)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BX-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODEL: MULTIHAX AVERAGING TIMEi 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Average Predicted
Value
Cp
(ng/m* )
Performance Heaaucea - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
ot_Averages
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
lf(C0) - r(Cp)] max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
3579
116.6
51.3
65.3 (+5.9)
0.96 (0.88, 1.06)
-0.69 (.032)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
In time and location)
(B-3)
5437
95.1
37.0
58.1 (+4.1)
1.05 (0.95, 1.16)
-0.72 (.026)
3.
vn
VO
o
4.
All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
<2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E 6 r
1321
810
1010
951
692
653
2229
2759
449
551
951
2828
1107
97.7
104.6
94.2
104.3
59.7
103.5
89.9
93.0
134.2
104.4
113.8
100.8
59.9
34.3
51.0
35.3
57.5
8.6
27.7
33.9
38.1
44.9
117.3
79.2
15.9
14.5'
63.4 (+7.5)
53.6 (+12.6)
58.9 (JlO.6)
46.8 (+10.2)
51.1 (+«.2)
75.8 (+12.3)
56.0 (+6.6)
54.9 (+5.6)
89.3 (+14.8)
-12.9 (+21.2)
34.6 (+13.2)
84.9 (+4.1)
45.4 (+5.6)
1.42 (1.27, 1.59)
0.75 (0.66, 0.86)
0.89 (0.79, 0.99)
1.21 (1.07, 1.36)
0.55 (0.48, 0.63)
1.53 (1.33, 1.75)
0.90 (0.81, 1.00)
0.99 (0.90, 1.09)
3.04 (2.59, 3.58)
0.32 (0.28, 0.36)
0.88 (0.78, 0.99)
5.28 (4.79, 5.81)
3.25 (2.90, 3.63)
-0.66 (.053)
-0.69 (.068)
-0.81 (.061)
-0.45 (.062)
-0.96 (.073)
-0.84 (.075)
-0.78 (.041)
-0.69 (.037)
-0.54 (.091)
-0.52 (.082)
-0.52 (.062)
-0.79 (.036)
-0.81 (.058)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AMD PREDICTED
8O2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELt MULTIMAX
AVERAGING TIMEl 1 IIOUR
f
10
H
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
*
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
e vent-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 a/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 */8ec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class O
Class B s F
Number
of
Events
3527
5437
1321
810
1010
951
692
653
2229
2759
449
551
951
2828
1107
Bias
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
(M9/mM
65.3 (18.3)
58. 1 (+5.8)
63.4 (+12.3)
53.6 (+16.8)
58.8 (7l4.4)
46.8 (+13.7)
51.1 (±6.6)
T:. 7 (+.18.1)
55.9 (+9.0)
54.8 (+7.8)
89.3 (+23.1)
-12.9 (+27.1)
34.6 (+17.7)
84.8 (±6.0)
45.4 (+.9.6)
Characteristic Discrepancies
Fraction of Noise Gross
Positive (Variance) Variability
Residuals
(C0> Cp) dig/m*)' (n g/m*)'
0.85
0.86
0.83
0.85
0.90
0.72
0.98
0.91
0.88
0.85
0.79
0.71
0.74
0.91
0.89
26797
23244
21014
31500
28013
25681
6073
24331
24826
21462
25393
60816
44288
12141
9944
(25592,
(22396,
(19505,
(28658,
(25732,
(23530,
(5484,
(21906,
(23435,
(20376,
(22391,
(54265,
(40579,
(11534,
(9168,
28097)
24145)
22723)
34832)
30643)
28172)
6773)
27226)
26357)
22645)
29111)
68762)
48583)
12802)
10833)
31054
26620
25023
34339
31452
27848
8679
30030
27942
24464
33309
60872
45427
19342
12000
Average Correlation Frequency Distribution
Absolute Coefficient Normality Test
Difference (f(d) - rn) ] max
(pg/rf ) '~- (fraction)
119.0
107.0
111.9
l^U.G
106.0
117.0
63.1
111.0
106.6
103.0
132.0
160.5
144.0
99.4
69.1
0.17 (0.14, 0.20)
0.04 (0.01, 0.06)
-0.08 (-0.13, -0.02)
0.06 (-0.01, 0.12)
0.06 (-0.00, 0.12)
0.00 (-0.06, 0.07)
0.13 (0.06, 0.21)
0.06 (-0.02, 0.13)
0.02 (-0.02, 0.07)
0.05 (0.01, 0.09)
0.01 (-0.08, 0.11)
0.07 (-0.01, 0.15)
-0.02 (-0.09, 0.04)
0.05 (0.01, 0.09)
-0.12 (-0.18, -0.06)
-0.23
-0.25
-0.21
-0.27
-0.30
-0.14
-0.34
-0.27
-0.29
-0.24
-0.12
-0.25
-0.20
-0.19
-0.13
(.032)
(.026)
(.053)
(.068)
(.061)
(.062)
(.073)
(.075)
(.041)
(.037)
(.091)
(.082)
(.062)
(.036)
(.058)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: MULTIMAX AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in ti*e and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
W Station 2
^j Station 3
to Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By neteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
<2.S «/sec
2,5 to 5 H/sec
>5 B/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E d F
Nunber
of
Events
1251
2066
506
327
385
370
231
247
572
1232
262
200
394
1116
356
Average Observed Average Predicted Difference
Value Value of_Avera.ges
(ug/rf ) (ng^rf ) (ug/»3?
96.1
78.8
82.3
81.6
78.3
84.2
52.2
85.1
76.0
75.5
100.2
77.0
93.5
81.7
54.2
41.6
31.
28.
41.
29.
46.
1
7
2
6
2
8.5
23.
25.
33.
33.
89.
53.
18.
11.
7
3
4
0
3
8
9
a
54.5
47.7
53.6
40.4
48.7
38.0
.43.7
61.4
50.7
42.1
67.2
-12.3
39.7
62.8
42.4
(+6.8)
(+4.6)
(+8.5)
(+13.2)
(+11.6)
(+11.0)
(+7.2)
(+13.1)
(+8.6)
(+5.9)
(+13.2)
(+21.6)
(+13.1)
(+5.0)
(+7.1)
- Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
1.25
1.34
2.06
0.88
1.17
1.60
0.61
1.87
1.27
1.12
3.53
0.48
1.13
3.43
3.75
(1.12,
(1.21,
(1.80,
(0.72,
(0.97,
(1.32,
(0.49,
(1-49,
(1.10,
(1.00,
(2.83,
(0.38,
(0.94,
<3.07,
(3.08,
1.40)
1.49)
2.37)
1.08)
1.41)
1.94)
0.77)
2.33)
1.46)
1.25)
4.41)
0.61)
1.36}
3.84)
4.57)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
|f(C0) - r(Cp)l wax
(fraction) .
-0.63
-0.65
-0.60
-0.60
-0.76
-0.36
-0.94
-0.81
-0.72
-0.64
-0.56
-0.35
-0.52
-0.72
-0.76
(.054)
(.0.42)
(.0*6)
(.106)
(.098)
(.100)
(.127)
(.122)
(.080)
(.055)
(.119)
(.136)
(.097)
(.058)
(.102)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) MODEL: MULTIMAX AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
T
V£>
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Nuaber
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-«v*nt (A-l) 1251
Average
Difference
(Co - V
(pg/m1)
54.5 (+8.1)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.83
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise Gross
(Variance) Variability
Uig/n* )* (vq/*f )'
11502 (10654, 12464) 14463
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
fog/-1)
87.2 0.23 (0.18, 0.28)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
ff(d) - £„)) max
(fraction)
-0.18 (.054)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in ti»e and location)
(B-3)
2066 47.6 (+5.6)
0.82
10284 (9686, 10944)
12548
80.8
0.08 (0.04, 0.12)
-0.20 (.042)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 m/Bec
2.5 to 5 a/sec
>S B/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class B & F
506
327
385
370
231
247
572
1232
262
200
394
1116
356
53.6 (+12.3)
40.4 (±14-7)
48.7 (+13.9)
38.1 (+12.6)
43.6 (+7.9)
61.5 (418.1)
50.7 (+10.3)
42.0 1+7.6)
67.2 (+14.0)
-12.3 (+23.0)
39.7 (+15.8)
62.8 (+ 6.1)
42.5 (+11.1)
0.80
o.ai
0.87
0.68
0.98
0.89
0.86
0.81
0.82
0.63
0.74
0.88
0.87
10403
13306
12263
10390
2568
9721
10332
10141
10379
20920
16966
6772
5198
(9238, 11827)
(11493, 15636)
(10709, 14220)
(9050, 12086)
(2160, 3118)
(8222, 11723)
(9237, 11654)
(9388, 10997)
(8819, 12445)
(17384, 25799)
(14839, 19639)
(6246, 7374)
(4516, 6065)
13252
14897
14604
11811
4462
13457
128S8
11899
14854
20966
18498
10713
6985
86.6
86.4
81.8
82.2
52.6
84.5
82.2
78.5
38.9
102.4
98.7
77.8
58.3
-0.10
0.11
0.10
0.12
0.18
0.12
0.06
O.OB
0.15
0.14
0.04
0.09
-0.13
(-0.19,
(0.00,
(-0.00,
(0.02,
(0.05,
(-0.00,
(-0.03,
(0.02,
(0.03,
(0.00,
(-0.06,
(0.04,
(-0.23,
-n.02j
0.22)
0.20)
0.22)
0.30)
0.24)
0.14)
0.14)
0.27)
0.27)
0.14)
0.15)
-0.02)
-0.16
-0.22
-0.27
0.07
-0.31
-0.22
-0.23
-0.21
0.13
-0.16
-0.15
-0.17
-0.24
.086)
.106)
.098)
.100)
.127)
.122)
(.080)
(.055)
(.119)
(.136)
(.097)
(.058)
(.102»
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIPTX CREEK (1975)
MODEL: HULTIMAX AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
I
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Data Seta
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
334
Average Observed
Value
C0
38.6
Average Predicted
Value
c_
(ug/rf )
15.9
Difference
o£_Averages
r* _ f*
o *rp
(ng/»3)
22.7 (J;4.3)
Variance
'•Comparison
2.19 (1.79, 2.69)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
lf(C0) - f(Cp)J max
(fraction)
-0.52 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all station* (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
1101
22.8
7.6
15.2 (+1.7)
2.58 (2.31, 2.89)
-0.68 (.058)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
210
179
193
180
206
133
29.1
22.1
24.5
25.5
13.7
22.2
8.9
9.3
8.0
12.5
1.2
5.6
20.2
12.8
16.5
13.0
12.5
16.6
(+4.6)
(+4.2)
(+4.5)
(+4.8)
(+1.6)
(+4.5J
5.53
1.53
2.25
2.38
1.94
2.62
(4.40,
(1.19,
(1.77,
(1.85,
(1.54,
(1.96,
6.96)
1.97)
2.86)
3.06)
2.44)
3.51)
-0.49
-0.64
-0.78
-0.47
-0.96
-0.77
(.133)
(.144)
(.138)
(.143)
(.134)
(.167)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTS CREEK (1975)
MODELt MULTIHAX
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
V
IO
Ul
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-«v*nt (A-l)
Number
of
Events
334
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
(M9/V)
22.7 (±4.2)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
0.84
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(H9/"1 )'
1059 (916, 1242)
Gross Average Correlation
Variability Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(pg/m9 )* (ug/ra* )
1570 28.5 0.38 (0.28, 0.47)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
If(d) - fn)j max
(fraction)
0.12 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
•11 stations (paired
in tiae and location)
(B-3)
1101 15.3 (11.8)
0.66
627 (578, 683)
859
19.7
0.30 (0.25, 0.35)
0.16 (.058)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
210
179
193
180
206
133
20.2 (+6.0)
12.7 (+3.7)
16.5 (74.8)
13.0 (+4.0)
12.5 (U.7)
16.5 {±5.0}
0.80
0.84
0.88
0.78
0.98
0.88
1048
549
779
611
95
639
(875, 1285)
(452, 686)
(645, 965)
(503, 763)
(79, 117)
(511, 830)
1453
708
1047
777
250
908
25.7
18.9
20.9
18.7
13.1
21.1
0.13 (-0.01, 0.26)
0.35 (0.21, 0.47)
0.26 (0.12, 0.39)
0.48 (0.36, 0.59)
0.34 (0.21, 0.46)
0.11 (-0.06, 0.28)
0.14
-0.19
-0.19
0.18
-0.20
.133)
.144)
.138)
.143)
.134)
-0.16 (.167)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVBNT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: HULTIMAX AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
C0
Average Predicted
Value
CP
(pg/rf )
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Ave rages
(iig/m
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
lf(C0) - t(Cp)] max
(traction) .
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
4069
129.5
53.3
76.2 (+5.6)
1.02 (0.93, 1.12)
-0.6.7 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
vo
6355
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 B/sec 2155
2.5 to 5 m/sec 3753
>5 B/sec 447
b. Stability Group
Class A fc B 537
Class C 1204
Class D 3390
Class E 6 F 1224
101.6
93.2
103.8
124.0
114.6
113.3
110.7
59.2
38.3
63.3 (13.9)
1.12 (1.02, 1.23)
40.9
34.7
55.8
122.9
83.1
18.1
13.0
52.3 (+7.2)
69.1 (+3.2)
68.2 (+14.8)
-8.3 (+23.0)
30.2 (+11.4)
92.6 (+4.2)
46.2 (+4.4)
0.79 (0.71, 0.88)
1.38 (1.26, 1.52)
1.53 (1.30, 1.80)
0.35 (0.30, 0.40)
0.76 (0.68, 0.85)
6.13 (5.58, 6.75)
1.92 (1.71, 2.14)
-0.69 (.024)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
1481
1180
1060
1275
483
876
102.2
104.6
89.9
106.7
78.5
115.9
37.9
29.6
48.0
59.0
12.3
22.9
64.3
75.0
41.9
47.7
66.2
93.0
(±7.6)
(+9.4)
(+10.5)
(+9.0)
(+10.6)
(+9.7)
1.88
1.58
0.41
1.24
1.07
1.21
(1.69,
(1.41,
(0.37,
(1.11,
(0.92,
(1.07,
2.10)
1.76)
0.460
1.38)
1.24)
1.37)
-0.62
-0.78
-0.72
-0.43
-0.93
-0.89
(.050)
(.056)
(.059)
(.054)
(.088)
(.065)
-0.74
-0.69
-0.47
-0.46
-0.49
-0.75
-0.83
.041)
.031)
.091)
.083)
.055)
.033)
(.055)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-Bx-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: MULTIMAX AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
V
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
*
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
4069
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
(M9/»*)
76.2 (+7.4)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
V
0.84
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(ng/rf )'
27707 (26544, 28955)
Gross
Variability
(M9/V )'
33505
Average Correlation-
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(ug/rf )
127.0 0.17 (0.14, 0.20)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - £„)] max
(fraction)
-0.19 (.030)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in ti*e and location)
(B-3)
6355 63.3 (±5.9)
0.84
25980 (25102, 26910)
29984
116.0
-0.03 (-0.06, -0.01)
-0.23 (.024)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By Meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 a/sec
2.5 to 5 «/sec
>5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A t B
Class C
Class D
Class B t V
1481
1180
1060
1275
483
876
2155
3753
447
537
1204
3390
1224
64.2 (+14.0)
74.9 (+13.1)
41.8 (+14.7)
47.7 (+14.8)
66.3 (+11.8)
92.9 (±12.0)
52.3 (+10.0)
69.0 (+7.7)
68.1 (+22.1)
-8.3 (+31.1)
30.2 (+16.8)
92.6 (+6.6)
46.1 (+8.0)
0.81
0.89
0.85
0.71
0.96
0.94
0.85
0.84
0.74
0.69
0.72
0.89
0.90
25141
27022
30598
29822
12614
20340
30340
23370
26099
78086
44159
15922
7191
(23431,
(24976,
(28162,
(27645,
(11171,
(18570,
(28612,
(22350,
(23008,
(67901,
(40847,
(15192,
(6656,
27065)
29356)
33397)
32293)
14387)
22402)
32244)
24468)
29930)
89799)
47932)
16711)
7800)
29254
32622
32323
32076
16981
28961
33058
28135
30691
78009
45035
24494
9315
119.0
114.0
113.0
125.0
81.6
121.8
116.0
115.0
125.0
186.0
150.0
110.0
68.7
-0.12 (-0.17, -0.07)
0.01 (-0.05, 0.07)
0.00 (-0.06, 0.06)
-0.11 (-0.17, -0.06)
0.12 (0.03, 0.20)
0.06 (-0.01, 0.12)
-0.04
-0.03
-0.03
-0.07
-0.09
-0.03
-0.19
-0.09,
-0.06,
-0.12,
-0.15,
-0.15,
-0.06,
-0.24,
-0.00)
0.00)
0.06)
0.02)
-0.04)
0.01)
-0.13)
-0.20
-0.26
-0.28
-0.13
-0.31
-0.25
-0.28
-0.21
-0.10
-0.22
-0.19
-0.16
-0.30
.050)
.056)
.059)
.054)
.088)
.065)
(.041)
(.031)
(.091)
(.083)
(.055)
(.033)
(.055)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFFY CREEK (1976) MODEL: MULT1MAX AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
Co
(ug/rf »
Average Predicted
Value
Difference
oC_Averages
Co - 9.P
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
lt(C0) - f(Cp)J max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
1457
106.9
43.0
63.9 (+6.4)
1.41 (1.26, 1.57)
-0.61 (.050)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3|
2449
83.9
32.3
51.6 (44.3)
1.53 (1.39, 1.70)
-0.60 (.039)
¥
5 «/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class B c F
584
4SO
406
499
169
341
581
1487
381
208
467
133S
439
83.4
88.4
74.2
86.7
67.1
94.5
77.1
83.8
94.8
90.1
88.4
91.4
53.4
31.6
25.2
41.0
48.5
11.3
19.4
33.3
31.8
32.9
86.8
59.0
21.8
10.2
51.8 (48.8)
63.2 (+10.3)
33.2 (+11. 0)
38.2 (+10.0)
55.8 (412.4)
75.1 (410.5)
43.8 (48.9)
52.0 (7s. 6)
61.9 (ilO.O)
3.3 (+21.5)
29.4 (+11.7)
69.6 (+5.2)
43.2 (+5.7)
2.51 (2.18, 2.88)
2.05 {1.75, 2.42)
0.50 (0.42, 0.60)
2.09 (1.82, 2.41)
1.37 (1.06, 1.77)
1.49 (1.22, 1.83)
1.20 (1.04, 1.38)
1.50 (1.34, 1.67)
2.82 (2.33, 3.40)
0.49 (0.39, 0.62)
1.09 (0,93, 1.27)
4.03 (3.61, 4.50)
2.71 (2.29, 3.20)
-0.53 (.080)
-0.74 (.091)
-0.67 (.095)
-0.30 (.086)
-0.90 (.148)
-0.84 (.104)
-0.63 (.080)
-0.61 (,050)
-0.55 (.099)
-0.38 (.133)
-0.40 (.089)
-0.67 (.053)
-0.80 (.092)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
8O2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODELI MULTIHAX AVERAGING TIMEs 3 HOURS
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Characteristic Discrepancies
Average
Difference
(Co -
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
Cp)
Noise
(Variance)
Gross
Variability
Average
Absolute
Difference
Correlation
coefficient
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
£„)] max
(fraction)
(f(d) - £„)]
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
1457 64.0 (.+7.3)
0.83
11719 (10916, 12624)
15807
92.6
0.2S (0.20, 0.30)
-0.15 (.050)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3»
2449
51.5 (+5.7)
0.81
12077 (11430, 12786)
14732
88.1
-0.02 (-0.06, 0.02)
-0.184.039)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
f Station 2
VO Station 3
i° Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
< 2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/eec
b. Stability Group
Class A i B
Class C
Class 0
Class E t F
584
450
406
499
169
341
581
1487
381
208
467
1335
439
51.8
63.2
33.2
38.2
55.8
75.1
43.8
51.9
61.9
3.3
29.4
69.6
43.1
(+13.3)
(+11.5)
(+15.3)
(+13.7)
(+9.8)
(+11.1)
(+10.8)
1+7.5)
(+13.6)
(+26.7)
(+15.7)
(+ 6.7)
(+8.0)
0.76
0.89
0.81
0.66
0.95
0.93
0.81
0.81
0.80
0.63
0.68
0.85
0.88
13534
11735
12976
14080
4795
8389
12711
12265
10238
25854
17490
9708
4405
(12114, 15246)
(10349, 13451)
(11371, 14986)
(12493, 16024)
(3924, 6032)
(7267, 9824)
(11375, 14324)
(11432, 13201)
(8935, 11882)
(21558, 31745)
(15459, 19995)
(9014, 10493)
(3879, 5058)
16199
15707
14045
15509
7876
14010
14610
14956
14040
25746
18316
14549
6257
92.7
88.7
85.0
89.7
65.3
91.9
88.7
88.1
87.2
120.0
101.0
88.0
58.9
-0.16
0.06
-0.02
-0.09
0.29
0.14
-0.05
-0.01
-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
-0.03
-0.21
(-0.24,
(-0.04,
1-0.12,
(-0.18,
(0.14,
(0.04,
(-0.13,
(-0.06,
(-0.13,
(-0.17,
(-0.15,
(-0.09,
(-0.29,
-0.08)
0*15)
0.08)
-0.01)
0.42)
0.25)
0.03)
0.04)
0.07)
0.10)
0.04)
O.Q2)
-0.11)
-0.14
-0.22
-0.24
0.11
-0.27
-0.21
-0.22
-0.19
0.11
-0.17
-0.15
-0.14
-0.26
(.080)
(.091*
(.095)
(.086)
(.148)
(.104)
(.080)
(.050)
(.099)
(.133)
(.089)
(.053)
(.092)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: MULTIMAX AVERAGING TIMEt 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
355
Average Observed Average Predicted
Value Value
Co Cp
(ug/M* ) (vq/t
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIETY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: MULTIMAX
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
f
H
O
Performance Measure* - Paired Comparisons
Bias
1.
2.
3.
Data Sets
Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l)
All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
Number
of
Events
355
1149
240
228
187
212
120
162
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
V
0.89
0.86
0.84
0.93
0.80
0.76
0.98
0.93
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
fcg/rf
1033 (897,
770 (711,
1016 (857,
601 (505,
863 (713,
1016 (849,
166 (131,
584 (476,
)'
1206)
837)
1229)
731)
1072)
1245)
219)
739)
Gross
Variability
U.9/.M'
1811
1079
1386
1016
1016
1223
361
1131
Average
Absolute
Difference
(iig/m* )
32.7
23.1
25.9
23.5
22.4
23.2
14.0
25.4
Correlation
Coefficient
Frequency
Distribution
Normality Test
(f(d) - rn)) max
(fraction)
0.43 (0.34, 0.51)
0.26 (0.20, 0.31)
0.11 (-0.01, 0.24)
0.32 (0.20, 0.43)
0.17 (0.03, 0.31)
0.40 (0.28, 0.51)
0.55 (0.41, 0.66)
0.15 (-0.00, 0.30)
a. 12
-0.16
0.15
-0.17
-0.19
0.16
-0.20
-0.13
(.102)
(.057)
.124)
.127)
.141)
.132)
.176)
.151)
-------
APPENDIX C
Statistics for Highest Concentration at Each Station
-------
Appendix C: Statistics for Highest Concentration at Each Station
In the tables which follow, model performance statistics are presented
which compare the maximum observed and predicted concentration value during a
year at each monitoring station (a total of six observed and six predicted values.)
Each table contains results for one calendar year and one averaging time. Results
for all eight models are given in each table. The performance measures are
analogous to those in Table B (Part 2.)
Statistical analyses in these tables compare the six pairs of observed-
predicted values. The first two columns present the averages of the six maximum
observed and predicted concentration values. The third column presents the average
difference between observed and predicted values, with the. 95 percent confidence
interval in parentheses (calculated with a one-sample t test, based on six data
points.) The fourth column indicates the fraction of observed-predicted data pairs
for which the observed value is greater than the predicted. The variance of the
residuals (differences) is presented in the fifth column, with 95 percent confidence
bounds as given by an F test. The gross variability (average squared residual)
is listed next, followed by the average absolute residual. The Pearson correlation
coefficient indicates the spatial correlation of the maximum concentration values
at each station. The 95 percent confidence bounds for the correlation coefficient
were calculated using a Fisher z test. The frequency distribution normality test
is described in Section B. The frequency distribution of the residuals is compared
with a normal frequency distribution. The maximum fractional difference between
these distributions is presented. In parentheses, the maximum difference which
is significantly different from zero at a 95 percent confidence level is presented,
as given by the K-S test.
02
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM'-
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Performance Measures
Bias
o
1
U)
*
MODEL
MPTER
(CRSTBR, PLUMBS)
MPSDM
COMPTER
SCSTER
3141
4141
TEM 8A
HULTIMAX
Average
Observed
Value
fttg/rf J
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
994.5
Average
Predicted
Value
c_
(wg7rf)
1207.9
1592.0
1228.0
1027.3
591.3
591.3
1043.0
1020.3
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
fog/*)
-213.4 (£571.4)
-597.5 (+1059.1)
-233.5 (+657.2)
-32.8 (+427.3)
403.2 (±450.5)
403.2 (+450.5)
-48.5 (.+279.1)
-25.8 (+402.6)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
V
0.33
0.17
0.33
0.50
0.83
0.83
0.17
0.67
Characteristic
Noise
(ng/rf )'
296578
1019002
305727
165889
184374
184374
70750
147277
(115580,
(397117,
(119145,
(64649,
(71853,
(71853,
(27572,
(57396,
1784465)
6131179)
183951)
998129)
1109350)
1109350)
425692)
886143)
Discrepancies
Gross
Variability
fog/m1 )'
292701
1206216
309301
139317
316170
316170
61313
123396
Average
Absolute
Difference
(ng/rf )
419.8
744.8
422.6
305.4
467.3
467.3
197.6
291.2
Correlation
Coefficient
-0.09
-0.23
-0.07
0.39
0.21
0.21
0.80
0.49
(-0.84,
(-0.88,
(-0.8J,
(-0.62,
(-0.73,
(-0.73,
(-0.03,
(-0.53,
0.78)
0.7^)
0.79)
0.91)
0.87)
0.87)
0.98)
0.93)
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OP MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures
Bias
MODEL
MPTER
(CRSTBR, PLUMBS)
MPSDM
COHPTER
SCSTER
3141
4141
TEN 8A
MULTIHAX
Average
Observed
Value
°o
(tig/rf )
543.3
543.3
543.3
543.3
543.3
543.3
543.3
543.3
Average
Predicted
Value
540.3
693.3
602.3
476.3
314.7
314.7
508.3
465.5
Average
Difference
(jig/"M
3.0
-150.0
-59.0
-67.0
228.6
228.6
35.0
77.8
(±222.7)
(±616.2)
(±192.8)
(±206.0)
(±184.6)
(±184.6)
(±155.0)
(±195.7)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
V
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.83
0.83
0.50
0.67
Characteristic Discrepancies
Gross
Noise Variability
(vg/af )* (ug/rf )*
45422 (17702,
273298)
344940 (134427, 2075451)
33774 (13162,
38548 (15023,
30951 (12062,
309- {!?«•.
21827 (8506,
34782 (13555,
203213)
231937)
186227)
"6227,
131330)
209278)
37861
309945
31630
36615
78052
78052
19410
35041
Average
Absolute
Difference Correlation
(liy/rf ) Coefficient
172.3
324.1
147.3
173.3
236.2
236.2
111.9
172.2
0.20
-0.56
0.40
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.78
0.35
(-0.73, 0.87)
(-0.94, 0.46)
(-0.61, 0.91)
(-0.69, 0.89)
(-0.69, 0.89)
(-0.69, 0.89)
(-0.09, 0.97)
(-0.64, 0.90)
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Bias
O
1
Ul
MODEL
MPTER
(CRSTER, PLUMBS)
MPSDM
COMPTER
8CSTER
3141
4141
TEM BA
MULTIMAX
Average
Observed
Value
(wg/rf )
151.8
151.8
151.8
151.8
151.8
151.8
151.8
151.8
Average
Predicted
Value
Cp
135.5
130.1
171.2
83.1
74.6
74.6
92.4
85. 7
Average
Difference
/r* —PI
(VO - <~n>
16.3
21.7
-19.4
68.7
77.2
77.2
59.4
66.1
(+35.8)
(+84.6)
(+54.2)
(+40.8)
(+35.9)
(+35.9)
(+38.6)
(+39.7)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.67
0.83
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
1.00
Characteristic,
Noise
(pg/rf )'
1169
6500
2673
1510
1171
1170
1356
1434
(456,
(2533
(1042
(588,
(456,
(456,
(528,
(559,
7033)
, 39110)
, 160B3)
9085)
7046)
7040)
8159)
B628)
. Discrepancies
Gross
Variability
(ng/rf )'
1240
5890
2604
5983
6947
6888
4665
5563
Average
Absolute
Difference
(ug/rf )
32.1
66.3
43.5
68.7
77.3
76.9
61.3
66.1
Correlation
Coefficient
0.75
-0.26
0.58
0.79
0.91
0.92
0.72
0.8B
(-0.16, 0.97)
(-0.88, 0.70)
(-0.44, 0.95)
(-0.06, 0.98)
(0.38, 0.99)
(0.43, 0.99)
(-0.22. 0.97)
(0.24, 0.99)
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BK STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: I HOUR
Performance Measures
Bias
MODEL
METER
(CRSTER, PLUMBS)
MPSDM
COMPTER
SCSTER
3141
4141
o
1 TEM 8A
MULTIMAX
Average
Observed
Value
858.1
858.1
858.1
858.1
858.1
858.1
858.1
858.1
Average
Predicted
Value
°P
1118.1
1152.9
1160.3
1023.3
626.2
626.2
953.0
1025.9
Average
Difference
if* _ f \
(Co GO)
(Vq/tf 1
-260.0
-294.8
-302.2
-165.2
231.9
231.9
-94.9
-167.8
(+143.0)
(+268.7)
(+200.4)
(+240.4)
(+166.1)
(+166.1)
(+293.6)
(+236.6)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
0.00
0.17
0.00
0.17
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.17
18570
65600
36501
52515
25051
25051
78332
50843
Characteristic
Noise
(7237, 111733)
(25565, 394705)
(14225, 219621)
(20466, 315975)
(9763, 150728)
(9763, 150728)
(30527, 471312)
(19814, 305915)
Discrepancies
Gross
Variability
(wg/rf )'
83076
141621
121769
71076
74608
74608
74296
70545
Average
Absolute
Difference Correlation
(ug/rf ) Coefficient
260.0
308.1
302.2
239.8
231.8
231.8
230.7
242.8
0.79 (-0.06,
0.21 (-0.73,
0.62 (-0.39,
0.51 (-0.51,
0.42 (-0.59,
0.42 (-0.59,
-0.49 (-0.93,
0.50 (-0.52,
0.98)
0.87)
0.95)
0.93)
0.92)
0.92)
0.53)
0.93)
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OP MAXIMUM OBSERVED AMD MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIMES 3 HOURS
Performance Measures
Bias
•
MODEL
MPTER
(CRSTBR, PLUMES)
MPSDM
COMPTER
SCSTER
3141
4141
TEH 8A
MULTIMAX
Average
Observed
Value
(ug/rf)
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
525.6
Average
Predicted
Value
(ug/rf )
579.5
562.0
666.4
488.2
324.1
324.1
443.0
463.2
Average
Difference
(Co -C.)
(Mg/m1)
-53.9
-36.4
-140.8
37.4
201.5
201.5
82.6
62.4
(+163.2)
(+220.1)
(+195.3)
(+142.6)
(+131.3)
(+131.3)
(+185.0)
(+.160.8)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0> V
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.50
Characteristic
Noise
tog/of )'
24196
44018
34642
18482
15665
15665
31080
23500
(9429,
(17154,
(13500,
(7203,
(6105,
(6105,
(12112,
(9158,
145583)
264850)
208436)
111203)
94254)
94254)
187004)
141396)
Discrepancies
Average
Gross Absolute
Variability Difference Correlation
(iig/rf )* (wg/rf ) Coefficient
23060 119.1 0.26
38001 149.8 0.31
48671 153.9 0.31
16801 119.4 0.10
53656 201.5 0.03
"«"« ™1.5 0.03
32736 158.7 0.29
23476 129.5 -0.10
(-0.70,
(-0.67,
(-0.67,
(-0.77,
(-0.80,
(-0.80,
(-0.68,
(-0.84,
0.88)
0.90)
0.90)
0.84)
0.82)
0.62)
0.89)
0.77)
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Bias
O
00
MODEL
MPTER
(CRSTER, PLUMES)
MPSDM
COMPTER
SCSTER
3141
4141
TEN 8A
MULTIMAX
Average
Observed
Value
CQ
(ng/rf )
132.8
132.8
132.8
132.8
132.8
132.8
132.8
132.8
Average
Predicted
Value
Cp
(ugV)
133.3
107.1
159.6
100.1
74.3
75.5
74.8
99.2
Average
Difference
(Co -0,)
dig/in1 T
-0.5 (+63.7)
25.7 (+45.8)
-26.8 (±67.6)
32.7 (+.57.7)
58.5 (137.1)
57.3 (+36.1)
58.0 (.+22.6)
33.6 (+.55.5)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.67
0.67
0.17
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
3682
1906
4146
3021
1250
1181
466
2796
Characteristic
Noise
(Mg/m1 )*
(1435, 22154)
(743, 11468)
(1616, 24946)
(1177, 18177)
(487, 7521)
(460, 7106)
(182, 2804)
(1090, 16823)
Discrepancies
Gross
Variability
(pg/rf )'
3068
2248
4173
3590
44S9
4271
3750
3456
Average
Absolute
Difference
(ng/rf )
39.3
44.3
45.0
56.4
58.5
57.3
58.0
54.6
Correlation
Coefficient
0.41 (-0.60,
0.25 (-0.70,
0.49 (-0.53,
0.25 (-0.70,
0.34 (-0.65,
0.38 (-0.62,
0.74 (-0.18,
0.25 (-0.70,
0.92)
0.88)
0.93)
0.8B)
0.90)
0.91)
0.97)
0.88)
-------
APPENDIX D
Comparisons of Highest Values for Various Pairings
-------
Appendix D; Comparisons of Highest Values for Various Pairings
The tables which follow present single-value residuals representing the
difference between the highest observed (or predicted) value over all events
and locations and the corresponding predicted (observed) value for the same event
or location. Results for all eight models are given in one table. Each table
contains results for one calendar year and one averaging time. The tables contain
no statistical measures, since confidence intervals cannot be assigned for single-
value comparisons.
The first two columns present the highest observed and highest predicted
concentration values for the year, over all events and locations. In parentheses
following each value, the Julian day and time period are indicated. The difference
between the highest observed and highest predicted values is given in the third
column. A positive difference indicates model underprediction.
The fourth column presents the difference between the highest observed value
and the value predicted at the same location and for the same event (paired in
space and time). The fifth column presents the difference between the highest
observed value and the highest value predicted at any station for the
event when the highest observed value occurred (paired in time, not space). The
sixth column presents the difference between the highest observed value and the
highest value for the year predicted at the station where the highest observed
value occurred (pa±T&d in space, not time).
The final three columns present the analogous single-value residuals obtained
using the highest predicted value. Again, results are presented representing,
in turn, pairing in space and time, pairing in time not space, and pairing in •
space not time.
D-2
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIPTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIMES 1 HOUR
4 802 Concentration (pg/03)
Highest Highest
Observed predicted
value over all value over all
events and all events and
locations locations
CQMX CpMx
MODEL (Day, Hour) (Day, Hour)
MPTER
(CRSTER,
PLUMBS) 1(72.7(24,13) 1492.5(185,11)
MPSDM 1672.7(24,13) 2940.0(190,9)
.*
COMPTER 1672.7(24,13) 1529.0(185,11)
SC8TBR 1672.7(24,13) 1374.4(65,13)
3141 1672.7(24,13) 727.8(186,11)
4141 . 1672.7(24,13) 727.8(186,11)
TEM 8A 1672.7(24,13) 1793.2(24,14)
MULTIMAX 1672.7(24,13) 1383.7(65,13)
Difference of
MaxinuB Values
C«-S
180.2
-1267.3
143.7
298.2
944.9
944.9
-120.5
289.0
Difference between CgMx and -
Predicted value Highest Highest
for save event Predicted Predicted
and location Value for sane Value for same
event as location as
CQMX (any C^MX (any
as Comax location) event)
1672.7 1672.7 215.1
1245.1 1245.1 -482.1
1672.7 1672.7 163.6
1672.7 1672.7 298.2
1672.7 1672.7 944.9
1672.7 1672.7 944.9
544.8 544.8 -120.5
1672.7 1672.7 289.0
Difference between Co and Cpmax, where C0 is-
Observed value Highest Highest
for sane event Observed value Observed value
and location as tor same event for same
location as
as Cpinax as Cpmax
Climax (any location) (any event)
-1467.9 -1467.9 -1035.5
-2896.4 -2896.4 -2483.0
-1504.4 -1504.4 -1072.0
-1336.4 -898.4 +298.2
-727.8 -690.3 944.9
-727.8 -690.3 944.9
-1596.2 -1596.2 -120.5
-1345.7 -907.7 289.0
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OP HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIMEI 3 HOURS
SO2 Concentration (pg/ra3)
Highest Highest
Observed Predicted
value over all value over all
events and all events and
locations locations
CgMX CpMX
MODEL (Day, Hour Ending) (Day, Hour Ending)
HPTBR
(CRSTER,
PLUMES) 794.0(24,15) 741.1(51, 12)
MPSDM 794.0(24,15) 1560.9(190,9)
COMPTER 794.0(24,15) 760.9(65,15)
SCSTER 794.0(24,15) 702.3(203,15)
3141 794.0(24,15) 450.3(203,15)
4141 794.0(24,15) 450.3(203,15)
TBM 8A 794.0(24,15) 939.2(156,12)
HULTIMAX 794.0(24,15) 692.6(203,15)
Difference of
Naximui Values
Co-Cp
52.9
-766.9
33.1
91.7
343.7
343.7
-145.2
101.4
Difference between Comax and -
Predicted value Highest Highest
for sane event Predicted Predicted
and location Value for sane Value for same
event as location as
CQIUX (any Coinax (any
as C^ax location) event)
794.0 794.0 155.6
445.9 445.9 -98.5
794.0 794.0 33.1
794.0 794.0 263.0
794.0 794.0 451.1
794.0 794.0 451.1
-57.9 -57.9 -145.2
794.0 794.0 253.8
Difference between Co and Cpmax, where Co is-
Observed value Highest Highest
for sane event Observed value Observed value
and location as for same event tor same
location as
as CpBax as Cpmax
Cp»ax (any location) (any event)
-738.9 -506.1 -217.6
-1535.4 -1535.4 -1323.8
-681.5 -597.2 33.1
-505.5 -505..S -178.8
-253.5 -253.5 73.2
-253.5 -253.5 73.2
-870.3 -804.3 -145.2
-495.8 -495.8 -169.1
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIMES 24 HOURS
•
Highest Highest
Observed Predicted-
value over all value over all
events and all events and
locations locations
Co»ax Cpwax
40DBL (Day) (Day)
HPTBR
(CRSTER,
PLUMBS) 209.5(24) 171.1(139)
4PSDM 209.5(24) 195.2(139)
COHPTBR 209.5(24) 241.6(139)
3CSTBR 209.5(24) 106.6(203)
3141 209.5(24) 96.8(139)
4141 209.5(24) 96.8(139)
TEM 8A 209.5(24) 142.1(24)
1ULTIMAX 209.5(24) 104.9(294)
SO 2 Concentration (jiq/»3)
DifCerence of
MaximuB Values
co-S
38.4
14.3
-32.1
102.9
112.7
112.7
67.3
104.6
Difference between CgBax and -
Predicted value Highest Highest
for sane event Predicted Predicted
and location Value for same Value for same
event as location as
CgMX (any CQmax (any
as Cgiiax location) event)
209.1 209.1 38. 4
149.4 149.4 29.6
194.6 194.6 -32.1
209.5 209.5 106.7
209.5 206.4 112.7
209.5 206.4 112.7
67.3 67.3 67.3
209.5 209.5 113.0
Difference between CQ and CpBax, where Co is-
Observed value Highest Highest
for same event Observed value Observed value
and location as for sane event for same
location as
as Cpiiax as C-max
Cpinax (anv location) (any event)
-116.9 - 86.1 38.4
-186.7 -148.9 -liJ.I
-187.4 -156.6 -32.1
-66.8 -63.7 63.5
-42.6 -11.8 112.7
-42.6 -11.8 112.7
67.3 67.3 67.3
-65.1 -62.0 65.2
Ul
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TINS AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
BO 2 Concentration (pg/«3)
WDEL
WTBR
(CRSTER,
PLUMBS)
*P8DH
COMPTER
SCSTBR
3141
4141
TEN 8A
MULTIMAX
Highest
Observed
value over all
events and all
locations
Coitnx
(Day, Hour)
950.8(302,13)
950.8(302,13)
950.8(302,13)
950.8(302,13)
950.8(302,13)
950.8(302,13)
950.8(302,13)
950.8(302,13)
Highest
Predicted
value over all
events and
locations
CpMX
(Day, Hour)
1422.4(120,13)
1512.1(350,11)
1438.8(225,9)
1422.2(120,13)
841.3(120,13)
841.3(120,13)
1309.9(179,10)
1398.7(120,13)
Difference of
Max taunt Values
C0-Cp
-471.6
-561.3
-488.0
-471.4
109.5
109.5
-359.1
-447.9
Difference between C^nax and -
Predicted value Highest Highest
for same event Predicted Predicted
and location Value for sane Value for same
event as location as
Cgoax (any Co»ax (any
as Cfjux location) event)
950.8
950.8
950.8
950.8
950.8
950.8
874.7
950.8
950.8
847.1
950.8
950.8
950.8
950.8
480.1
950.8
-471.6
-384.0
-468.7
-471.4
109.5
109.5
98.7
-447.9
Difference between CQ and Cp*ax,
Observed value Highest
for sane event Observed value
and location as Cor same event
as Cpi»ax
Cpjnax (any location)
-1355.2
-1484.6
-1419.3
-1355.0
-774.1
T774.1
-1277.4
-1331.5
-1355.2
-1466.6
-1364.3
-1355.0
-774.1
-774.1
-1272.4
-1331.5
where CQ is-
Highest
Observed value
for sane
location as
"' as Cpfltax " "
(any event)
-471.6
-665.1
-591.8
-471.4
109.5
109.5
-462.9
-447.9
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Highest Highest
Observed - Predicted
value over all value over all
events and 'all events and
locations locations
Cofnax Cp»ax
MODEL (Day, Hour Ending) (Day, Hour Ending)
MPTER
(CRSTBR,
PLUMBS) 623.7(362,15) 856.0(181,15)
MPSDM 623.7(362,15) 947.1(179,12)
COMPTBR 623.7(362,15) 1008.4(181,15)
SCSTER 623.7(362,15) 657.0(105,15)
j
3141 623.7(362,15) 453.4(105.15)
4141 623.7(362,15) 453.4(105,15)
TEH BA 623.7(362,15) 763.7(179,12)
MULTIMAX 623.7(362,15) 616.0(105,15)
SO j Concentration ftig/«3)
Difference of
Maximum Values
Co-Cp
-232.3
-323.4
-384.7
-33.3
170.3
170.3
-140.1
7.6
Difference between C^max and -
Predicted value Highest Highest
for same event Predicted Predicted
and location Value for sane Value for same
event as location as
CQIUX (any CQJUX (any
as Cgrnax location) event)
615.6 615.6 36.5
615.2 605.4 -44.5
610.8 499.6 18.4
621.0 621.0 164.4
586.6 586.6 327.4
586.6 586.6 327.4
619.6 619.6 118.4
619.7 619.7 277.7
Difference between CQ and Cpinax, where CQ is-
Observed value Highest Highest
for saae event Observed value Observed value
and location as for same event for same
location-aa
as CpBax as CpBax
Cpmax (any location) (any event)
-784.0 -592.3 -314.0
-935.4 -845.7 -405.1
-936.4 -744.7 -466.4
-560.7 -346.7 -115.0
-357.0 -143.0 88.6
-357.0 -143.0 88.6
-752.0 -662.3 -221.7
-519.7 -305.7 -74.0
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
SO 2 Concentration (pg/»3)
Highest Highest
Observed Predicted
value over all value over all
events and all events and
locations locations
C0»ax Cpmax
MODEL (Day) (Day)
HPTBR
(CRSTBR,
PLUMBS) 181.2(330) 248.7(181)
HPSDN 181.2(330) 178.7(105)
COMPTER 181.2(330) 274.9(105)
SCSTER 181.2(330) 203.8(105)
3141 181.2(330) 129.1(105)
4141 181.2(330) 129.1(105)
TEN 8A 181.2(330) 102.2(114)
MULTIMAX 181.2(330) 196.0(105)
Difference of
Maximum Values
Co-Cp
-67.5
2.5
-93.7
-22.5
52.2
52.1
79.0
-14.8
Difference between C^max and -
Predicted value Highest Highest
for same event. Predicted Predicted
and location Value for. same Value _f or same
event as location as
COMX (any C^nax (any
as Cgmax location) event)
173.3 169.5 28.8
175.2 157.3 65.7
170.9 88.3 -17.6
178.5 178.5 85.4
152.6 152.6 106.1
150.9 150.9 104.1
177.3 177.3 85.1
177.9 175.3 93.6
Difference between CQ and Cpmax, where C<, is-
Observed value Highest Highest
for same event Observed value Observed value
and location as Cor same event for same
location as
as Cpmax as Cpmax
Cp"08* (any location) (any event)'
-213.6 -168.2 -116.0
-143.7 -98.3 -46.0
-239.9 -194.5 -142.2
-168.7 -123.3 -71.0
-94.0 -48.6 3.7
-94.0 -48.7 3.6
-65.7 -22.6 30.5
-160.9 -115.5 -63.2
7
CO
-------
APPENDIX E
Selected Model Evaluation Input Data
-------
'SELECTED MODEL EVALUATION INPUT DATA
The attached tables provide sets of daily hour-by-hour source, meteorological,
and air quality data used as input to the rural model evaluations. These
data are from the Clifty Creek Power Plant, located in Indiana. The sample
data are provided to support case study analyses of days when high concentra-
tions were measured in the Clifty Creek Power Plant monitoring network.
The days selected, and the basis for this selection are given in Table 1. The
data represents measurements made on days with the highest and highest, second
high 1-hour, 3-hour and 24-hour average S02 concentrations (excluding background)
measured in the Clifty Creek monitoring program during 1975 and 1976.
TABLE 1
SELECTED DAYS OF DATA AND SELECTION CRITERIA
Date
1/24/75
1/24/75
1/24/75
4/23/75
10/22/75
12/22/75
2/24/76
3/22/76
10/15/76
10/28/76
11/25/76
12/27/76
Criterion
HI
H3
H24
H2H3
H2H24
I12H1
H2H24
H2H1
H2H3
HI
H24
H3
Hour
Ending
13
15
24
15
24
15
24
16
9
13
24
15
Receptor
3
3
3
3
1
6
4
2
1
5
4
4
502 Concentrati°n(ljg/l>l3)
Excluding Background
1672.7
794.0
209.5
661.0
1.87.0
1008.7
152.4
888.3
542.9
950.8
181.2
623.7
HI, H3, H24 - Highest 1-.3-, and 24-liour average concentration (excluding background)
for the given year, respectively.
H2H1, H2H3, H2H4 - Highest, second high 1-, 3-, and 24-hour average concentration
(excluding background) for the given year, respectively.
E-2
-------
SELECTED MOPt L [.VALUATION INPUT DATA F3R C-IFTY CREEK POu£R PLAMT
U)
HOUR
ENOIN5
1
2
5
4
5
S
7
1
9
13
11
12
13
14
15
16
IT
13
1?
20
21
22
23
24
SO? fHISSION 21.
3511.
3525.
3537.
3537.
3S14.
3521.
3521.
3537.
3506.
34fl3.
316H.
3115.
3115.
3130.
3115.
3115.
3115.
3/ 1/24
EXIT VELOCITY t*/S>
STACK 1 STACK ?
STACK TEHPERATUE (DEG K)
52.55
52.21
52.35
52.55
52.21
52.44
52.67
51.17
51.29
51.29
51.75
51.75
51.B6
32.32
51.98
52.09
52.44
52.55
52.44
52.44
52.44
52.55
52.44
53.01
52.55
52.55
52.93
T 3 . 0 1
52.90
52.79
53.01
53.13
53.13
52.7B
52.90
52.90
53.13
52.67
52.32
52.09
51.75
M.75
51.52
SI.75
51.75
51.75
51.17
51.75
ST*C< 3
51.9R
51.29
51.75
51.93
51.5?
51.75
51.63
52.44
53.13
52.67
52.32
52.44
52.09
52.52
52.55
52.55
52.09
52.67
32.67
52.90
52.67
52.55
52.21
52.55
STACK 1
145.4
415.1
445.4
145.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.1
STACK 2
115.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.4
STACK 3
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445. 4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445. 4
445.4
445.4
-------
MOPF.L [.VALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK POWER PLANT
HOURLY METEOROLOGY
CREEK SURFACE/DAYTON JPPER AIR)
75/
HOUR
ENDING
1
?
3
4
5
c
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
IP
19
?0
21
22
??
?4
WIND OIR
OCG
214.
208.
195.
195.
190.
192.
199.
191.
187.
195.
194.
175.
188.
190.
198.
193.
180.
176.
177.
178.
182.
199.
192.
194.
ui»n SP
1/S
2.09
1.83
2.09
1.57
1.83
2.39
2.09
2.61
2.&1
3.20
2.62
2.37
2.S2
2.91
2.97
2.61
2.35
2.35
3.05
3.92
3.92
4.19
4.18
4.44
TEMP
DES K
271.48
271.48
271.48
271.49
271.48
2'T 1 . " P
271.48
270.93
270.93
271.48
273.15
275.37
277.59
278.71
279. "2
2BO.J7
290.37
290.37
279.82
279. «2
279. P2
279. P2
27°. F2
279. P2
MIX HEIGHT
METERS
681.34
655.86
630.37
604.89
579.39
553.90
528.42
502.93
477.44
451.95
426.46
400.98
375.49
350.00
350.00
350.00
350.00
351.67
357.53
363.40
369.27
375.13
181.00
386.87
STAB
CLASS
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
4
3
3
-------
SELECTED MODIL LVALUATJON INPUT DATA FOR C|_IFTY CREEK »OU£R PLANT
SOURLY IfASURED SO? CONCEMT^AT I3VS
-------
SELECTED MODfL tVALUM I ft) INPUT DtTfl ^OR CLICTY CREEK PCK'iR I'LANT
HOURLY SOURCE DATA
75/ 1/23
SO? FVISS10N (G/S)
TXIT VELOCITY
STACK TEMPERATUE 222.
2243.
2136.
2093.
SIR'S.
2234.
STACK ?
2299.
2?92.
??78.
2250.
2187.
2095.
2151.
2151.
2165.
2158.
2165.
2172.
2533.
2611.
2603.
2503.
2222.
2236.
222?.
220H.
2201 .
STACK 3
2372.
2301.
2273.
2273.
2266.
2252.
2110.
2082.
2117.
2166.
2110.
2046.
213B.
2195.
2124.
2159.
213B.
2195.
2209.
2450.
2563.
2605.
23«6.
2301.
STACK 1
37.57
36. bfl
36.34
36.34
36.22
35.76
36.91
41.29
41.74
42.55
U.97
43.24
43.12
43.47
36. 68
35.65
35. 98
36.34
35.76
36.11
34.3«
33.69
35.19
35.99
STACK 2
37.49
37.37
37.26
37.14
?7.26
76.64
35.65
34.15
35.07
J5.07
55.30
35.1?
35.33
55.42
41.23
42.55
42.43
40.1?
40.25
36.22
36.45
76.22
35.99
.»5. e 3
STACK 3
38.52
37.37
36.91
36.91
36.BO
36.57
35.53
33.11
34.3B
35.19
34.?7
33.23
34.73
35.65
34.50
35.07
34.73
35.65
35.88
39.79
41.63
42.32
39.75
37.37
STACK 1
445-4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 2
445.
445.
443.
445.
445.
445.1
445.4
445.4
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.1
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 3
145. 4
445.4
44>.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
4 4 5.. 4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445. 4
445.4
445.4
415.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
-------
SELECTED 'lODLL tVALUATJOIl INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK POWER f'LANT
HOURLY >1ET?OROL3GY
(CLIFTY CRESK SURFACE/OAYTON JPRER AIR)
7?/ 4/23
HOUR
CNDIMC
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
p
1
10
11
12
13
It
15
16
17
1R
19
20
21
22
23
24
WIND OIR
DEC
1P2.
198.
183.
112.
1H3.
int.
184.
198.
210.
216.
199.
197.
1R7.
1RH.
190.
IBS.
191.
208.
?08.
191.
IPO.
175.
1S1.
193.
WIND SP
1/S
2.91
3.05
3. 28
4.44
4.70
4.18
4.70
4.70
4.44
4.44
6.27
8.36
8.36
5.79
6.79
7.57
7.94
5.?2
4.44
3.75
4. 1H
4.18
4.19
3.66
TfMP
DEC K
2S9.?6
299. ?6
2H9.71
?Rh.15
299.15
2RP.15
2BP.15
28R.71
2PR.71
?R6.4P
264. F2
284. "Z
296.48
296.48
?R5.P3
285.93
287.04
P9H.71
298.71
2MH.71
2HH.15
2B8.15
29R.15
2MB. 15
MIX HEIGHT
METERS
1475.12
1365.50
1255.87
1146.25
1036.62
927.00
R17.37
707.75
598.12
488.50
378.87
269.25
159.62
50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00
68.77
94.89
121.02
H7.14
173.26
STAB
CLASS
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
-------
SLLECTED MODCL EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLJCTY CREEK PO'JER
HOURLY MEASURED
SO? CONCENTS AT I DVS
75/ 4/23
&>
I'OJR
F.NOING
1
2
3
*
5
a
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
M
15
is
17
13
19
20
21
?2
(1)
3A.C'»N
R10GE
37.
23.
21 .
21.
Ifi.
21.
1H.
21.
264.
99.
H9.
P..
5.
3.
3.
5.
3.
425.
211.
13.
"i.
t.
3.
10.
(2)
RYKERS
RIOSE
13.
13.
13.
13.
13.
13.
13.
16.
21.
15*.
1ft.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
NORTH
H43ISON
31.
26.
21 .
26.
21.
37.
50.
151.
39.
29.
70.
1&*.
624.
676.
69?.
475.
31.
16.
44.
107.
H.
10.
191.
<4)
HEBROM
CHURCH
27.
IP.
Ifi.
16.
It.
16.
If..
50.
11C.
25.
107.
26.
1J.
10.
10.
I".
191.
Ifr.
13.
295.
37.
1?.
in.
120.
-------
SELECTED MODEL EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR C_lrTY CRFEK POWER PLAMT
S02 EMISSION «6/S)
HOUR
END INS
1
2
3
4
5
ft
7
9
9
10
11
12
15
n
15
li
17
19
19
20
21
22
?3
24
STACK 1
1512.
1569.
1569.
1569.
240*
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
14.
STACK ?
?f.22.
2890.
3034.
3020.
3021.
2986.
3014.
2980.
29B6.
3007.
3021.
3 (i 0 7 .
?980.
3014.
5027.
3041.
3027.
3014.
2973.
3COO.
2993.
?979.
2986.
3300.
STACK, 3
3103.
3040.
3067.
3060.
3040.
3012.
3012.
308R.
3074.
30A8.
3067.
3095.
306G.
3074.
3053.
3053.
3047.
3053.
3060.
3033.
3026.
3026.
3040.
3033.
HOURLY SOURCE DATA
75/10/?2
EXIT VELOCITY
STACK 1 STACK 2
STACK TEMPERATUE (DEC K)
24.95
25.41
25.41
25.41
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
24.95
44.05
4B.53
50.9*
50.71
50.71
50.14
f • 0 . 6 0
50.0J
50.14
50.43
50.71
50. 4R
50.03
50.60
50.83
51. OS
?• 0 . B 3
50.60
49.91
f 0.37
50.25
f 1 0 . 0 3
50.14
50.37
STACK 3
51.98
50.B3
51.2"
51.17
50.83
50.37
50.37
51.63
51.40
51.63
51.?9
51.75
51.17
51.40
51.06
51.06
50.94
51.06
51.17
50.71
50.60
50.60
50.S3
50.71
STACK 1
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 2
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 3
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445,
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.4
445.4
445.4.
445.4
445.4
445.4
-------
SELECTED MOD5L LVALUJ TI G"M INPUT DATA FOR CL1FTY CREEK POU'ER PLANT
HOURLY "ETrOROLOGV
1CIIFTY CREEK SURE4CE/DAYTON UPPER «IR»
7-5/10/22
HOUR WIND DIR wlNP S'- TfHP HIX HEIGHT STA«
ENDING DEC ''/s OEG ^ METERS CLASS
1 P05. 3.40 2RH.15 1221.29 4
P 203. 5.66 2ft7.?9 1212.89 4
3 205. 3.2« 267.T9 1204.48 ' 5
it 20*. 3.2fl 2"7.T4 1196.07 5
5 206. 3.05 ?Pt.4P 11R7.66 5
6 ?C1. 3.05 ,?fib.V3 1179.26 5
7 1°4. ?.66 2Pfi.r3 5.96 4
0 1?4. 3.66 2«5.C3 163.97 4
° 196. 3.66 2«".15 321.97 4
IP 205. 3.66 29C.37 479.98 4
11 209. ?.B7 292.59 637.98 4
12 210. T.13 294.26 795.99 4
13 199. 3.13 29*.?7 953.99 4
w 14 202. 3.66 29f).»3 1112.00 4
| 15 196. 4.18 29b.4B 1112.00 4
H 16 199. 3.92 297.T4 1112.00 4
17 202. 3.40 29f.*R 1112.00 4
«ft 193. ?.81 294.7k 1115.?/ 5
1" 1P2. 3.28 ?9?.T4 1130.65 6
20 1P3. 3.75 290.C3 1145.04 5
21 1*9. 3.99 29P.77 1161.22 6
?2 192. 3.52 2l'°.f»2 1176.50 6
23 197. .T.05 2PP.15 Ila1.78 6
?4 IPfi. 3.28 2h7.r" 1207.06 6
-------
SELECTED MOBIL EVALUATION INI'UT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK POWER I'LANT
HOURLY HFASURED S02 CONCENTRATIONS
-------
SELECTED 10DFL EVALUATION. INPUT OflTA ^OR CLlcTY CREEK POW[;t< PLANT
S02 EMISSION
M
M
to
HOUR
ENDINS
5
4
5
i
7
9
9
10
11
12
13
i»
15
IS
17
IB
19
20
21
?2
23
2*
STACK 1
3?S9.
32M.
3?37.
3?44.
32PO.
32*8
3237.
3209.
323B.
3224.
3217.
3?3B.
3231.
3245.
3231.
3253.
3303.
3275.
3?53.
3074.
2«87.
STACK 2
3)37.
3166.
3159.
3166.
3t 73.
31RO.
3165.
3187.
3166.
3159.
31'Jl.
3151.
3151.
3130.
3130.
3130.
3109.
3109.
30Q1.
3086.
3095.
338*1.
30B1.
3102.
STACK 3
3?99.
3285.
3292.
3270.
3?56.
3263.
330S.
3292.
3299.
3299.
3292.
32P5.
3270.
3278.
3270.
327H.
3263.
3?63.
3270.
3292.
3270.
3256.
3P42.
3270.
HOURLY SOURCE DATA
75/12/22
EXIT VELOCITY JM/Sj
STACK 1 STACK 2
52.55
52.14
52.21
52.44
52.32
52.90
52.32
52.67
52.67
52.21
51.75
52.21
51.9H
51. B6
52.21
52.09
52.32
52.09
52. *4
53.24
52.78
52.44
49.57
46. 59
51.52
51.63
51. 75
f 1.B6
51.63
51.99
ei.63
51.52
51.40
f 1. 4 0
f 1.40
51.06
M.OS
51.OS
?0.71
50.71
50.25
50.37
50.4!)
E0.37
50.25
5 0. & 0
STACK 3
53.59
53.36 •
53.47
53.13
52.90
53.01
53.70
53.47
53.59
53.59
53.47
53.36
53.13
53.24
53.13
53.24
53.01
53.01
53.13
53.47
53.13
52.90
52.67
53.13
STACK TEMPERATUE
-------
SLLECTiD HODLL LVALUf.T I d'J INPUT D4Tft FOR CLIFTY CREEK POWER PLANT
HOURLY NETEOR3L3GY
CCL1FTY CREEK SURFACE/DAYTON UPPER AIR»
75/12/22
a
M
U)
HOUR
END I NH
1
?
3
4
5
(-
7
n
Q
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
IB
1 9
20
21
22
23
24
WIND OIR
DEC
72.
68.
72.
62.
68.
65.
R2.
74.
102.
15ft.
197.
175.
125.
299.
319.
249.
265.
331.
319.
309.
265.
21R.
246.
275.
WIND sn
M/S
1.54
1.41
1.17
.94
1.83
1.B3
1.41
1.05
.78
.78
1.16
1.16
.65
1.45
.97
1.05
.87
1.57
1.17
.94
.70
1.41
1.41
1.41
TEMP
OE3 K
261.P2
2&3.71
264.?6
264.?6
P63.71
2f.3.15
263.15
264. H2
266.4H
26B.15
269.P2
2&9.P2
271.18
272.04
271.48
269.26
260.71
267.59
267.04
266.48
265.°3
?65.?7
MIX HEIGHT
METERS
715.12
721.57
72B.02
734.48
740.93
747.38
753.B3
1.25
134.21
267.17
400.12
533.09
666.04
799.00
799.00
799.00
799.00
794.60
7BB.87
783.14
777.41
771.6fl
765.95
760.22
STAR
CLASS
5
5
5
5
4
4
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
3
3
4
3
4
5
6
6
7
7
7
-------
StLLCliD MODFL EVALUATION INPUT DMA FOR CLIFTY CREEK POWER PLANT
HOURLY MEASURED S02 CONCENTRATORS
75/12/22
I
HOUR
ENDING
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
3
9
10
11
12
13
n
15
Ib
17
13
19
23
21
22
23
24
(1)
BACON
RIPGE
13.
13.
21.
102.
128.
256.
305.
300.
2P4.
258.
l°l.
149.
14f..
154.
130.
73.
44.
44.
34.
31.
26.
21.
RYKERS
RIDGE
H.
5.
1.
16.
42.
47.
164.
141.
125.
209.
154.
136.
149.
55.
112.
219.
23.
21.
IB.
16.
16.
IB.
(3)
NORTH
MADISON
5.
8.
8.
13.
76.
6R.
36.
149.
1S7.
144.
217.
104.
133.
6R.
31.
26.
23.
23.
1R.
16.
IB.
16.
16.
16.
HEBRON
10.
10.
-1 .
34.
73.
115.
130.
15! .
185.
201.
172.
130.
112.
7?.
39.
?9.
26.
21 .
2?.
1ft.
1*.
If.
If.
(5)
LIBERTY
5.
6.
5.
10.
29.
42.
29.
34.
50.
47.
91.
1R3.
201.
692.
258.
39.
26.
21.
21.
16.
16.
16.
16.
16.
(6)
CAMIP
CREEK
3.
3.
3.
3.
-1.
13.
16.
21 .
26.
42.
102.
193.
100.
172.
lOfll.
676.
99.
R6.
42.
29.
21.
29.
29.
23.
CALCULATED
BACKGROUND
7.3
7.H
9.0
29.7
59. 6
90.2
115.2
136.5
142.2
134.S
96.5
176.7
154.3
235.0
72.2
32.5
26.0
40.4
23.5
22.0
17.3
22.5
16.0
17.2
-------
SELECTED MOULL LVfcLUMIOf' INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CRCEK POwER
HOURLY SOURCE DATA
76/ 2/24
SO? EMISSION «G/S>
EXIT VELOCITY
-------
SELECTED MODLL EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTV CREEK POWER PLANT
HOIHLV METEOROLOGY
CCLIFTY CRE:K SURFACE/DAVTON JPPER AIRJ
2/24
HOUR
ENDING
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a
9
in
u
12
13
1*
15
16
17
ie
19
20
21
?2
?3
24
UIND OIR
DEC
212.
211.
204.
200.
1-99.
1<»9.
199.
202.
203.
20«».
209.
211.
208.
209.
209.
211.
210.
207.
195.
197.
195.
196.
201.
206.
UIND SP
M/S
3.75
3.66
.1.52
3.05
3.&S
3.52
3.75
4. IS
4.70
4.44
3.66
3.13
3.92
4.44
4.70
4. in
4.70
4.44
4.70
4.69
4.95
4.96
5.49
4.96
TEMP
DES <
274. ?6
274. 2fr
274. ?6
?74.26
?73.71
274.26
274. P2
275.17
277. C4
279.26
28?. 59
2«5.?7
2R7.f9
293.71
289. P2
291. 46
290.93
290.37
2BH.71
2B7.f,9
287.04
2R5.93
235.37
2R5.77
MIX HEIGHT
METERS
1292. ftB
1250.04
1?07.20
1164.37
1121.53
107A.69
1035.66
66.96
179.47
299.97
401.49
512.99
624.49
736.00
735.00
736.00
736.00
736.00
733.13
728.92
724.70
720.48
716.26
712.05
STAB
CLASS
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
-------
SE.LECTEO MODKL EVALUATION INPUT CATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK 3Qw£R PLANT
HOURLY MEASURED S02 CONCENT*ATI3MS
7f,/ 2/?4
f.
HOUR
ENDING
1
2
3
1
5
S
7
3
9
10
11
,12
13
14
15
IS
17
IB
19
20
21
22
?3
( 1 )
BACON
RIOfiE
457.
209.
130.
99.
110.
99.
107.
110.
?92.
r,21.
663.
566.
110
81
21 .
13.
If..
If..
13.
n.
RID3E
110.
112.
78.
57.
E.8.
65.
76.
7B.
97.
110.
104.
104.
?4.
86.
52.
29.
?6.
5.
5.
10.
13.
e.
n.
(3)
ND1TM
MADISON
55.
73.
70.
57.
&P. .
44.
39.
55.
68.
91.
99.
99.
69.
102.
133.
B6.
39.
29.
IB.
29.
73.
123.
91.
10.
14)
HEBRON
CHURCH
94.
-1.
18?.
36°.
279.
311.
311 .
94.
97.
91.
110.
251.
45".
45?.
35P.
1RP.
39.
?.
P.
f.
B4.
24P.
C5>
LIPtRTY
RIDGE
31.
34.
47.
57.
26.
26.
39.
60.
78.
110.
123.
-1.
110.
104.
B4.
47.
29.
26.
3.
5.
R.
13.
8.
fl.
(C.)
CANIP
CREEK
26.
23.
IB.
16.
-1.
-1.
-1 .
-1.
3.
3.
-1.
fib.
91.
81.
60.
?9.
18.
13.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
CALCULATED
BACKGROJND
28.5
28.5
32.5
36.5
26.9
26.0
39.0
60.0
40.5
56.5
123.0
66.0
100.5
92.5
72.0
38.3
23.5
19.5
3.0
4.0
5.5
1.0
5.5
5.5
-------
SELECTED 1DOLL EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CuIFTY CREEK POWER PLANT
HOURLY SOURCE DATA
76/ 3/22
M
H
00
HOUR
ENDING
1
2
3
4
5
&
7
9
9
10
11
12
15
14
15
IS
17
IB
19
20
21
22
23
24
SO? EMISSION
STACK 1
329B.
32«U.
3305.
3305.
3512.
3326.
3306.
3312.
3?91.
3298.
3291.
3312.
3291.
3291.
33?0.
3291.
3270.
329H.
3305.
32"1.
3305.
STACK ?.
3?39.
3196.
3203.
3717.
3? J9.
3?32.
3210.
3260.
3?39.
32*6.
3239.
3253.
3239.
3?25.
3?32.
3232.
3? 39.
3232.
3203.
3210.
3225.
3210.
3189.
3239.
STACK 3
1S17.
1647.
1551.
1061.
1S68.
1669.
166R.
1675.
1666.
1&6P.
166°.
1&6R.
1668.
166«.
1668.
1675.
16B9.
1669.
16P9.
1689.
166H.
169?.
16B2.
EXIT VELOCITY (H/SJ
STACK 1
52.90
52.90
53.01
52.90
53.13
53.13
53.24
53.47
53.13
53.24
52.90
53.01
52.90
53.24
52.90
52.90
53.36
52.90
52.55
53.01
53.13
52.90
52.90
53.13
STACK 2
52.67
M.99
52.09
52.3?
?2.67
52.55
52.21
53.01
52.67
52.79
52.67
52.90
C2.67
52.44
52.55
52.55
P2.67
52i55
52.09
52.21
52.44
52.21
M.9S
52. S 7
STACK 3
STACK TEMPERATUE IDEG K)
STACK 1
26. 6fl
26.&R
26.79
26.91
27.02
27.02
27.02
27.14
27.02
27.02
27.02
27.02
27.02
27.02
27.02
27.02
27.14
27.37
?7.37
27.37
27.37
27.02
27.25
27.25
4*5-4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
.445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 2
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 3
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
415.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.4
445.4
-------
SELECTED MODEL EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK "0',/tR f'LAMT
vo
HOURLY METEOROLOGY
(CLIFTY CREEK SURFACE/DAYTON UPPER AIRI
7f>/ 3/22
UP.
•ING
1
2
3
4
ft
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
WIND OIR
DEC
22.
80.
96.
86.
83.
85.
92.
110.
119.
125.
12fl.
114.
114.
245.
2P1.
250.
276.
310.
296.
340.
6.
336.
347.
356.
uiwo sp
H/S
.70
.47
.47
.70
2.11
2.R.1
?.B1
3.13
2.04
2.91
1.94
1.30
.97
1.30
1.94
1.16
1.62
1.16
.78
1.88
1.41
1.64
2.09
2.39
TEMP
DEC K
273.71
272.01
272.04
272.59
272.04
272. T4
271.48
272.59
274.26
275.37
277.59
2R0.37
282.04
2R2.59
282. f.9
284. ?6
284.26
293.15
291.48
2B0.93
280.37
279. ?6
270.71
27B.71
MIX HEIGHT
METERS
1400.41
1413.99
1427.58
1441.16
1454.74
14&B.33
61.70
279.17
494.65
711.1?
927.59
1144.06
1360.53
1577.00
1577.00
1577.00
1577.00
1577.00
1593.15
1611.93
1640.71
1669.50
1698.28
1727.06
STAB
CLASS
5
6
7
6
6
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
4
5
5
5
4
4
-------
SfLECTiO 10DEL EVALUATION INPUT DAT* FOR CLIPTY CREEK POWER PLANT
HOURLY MEASURED S02 CONCENTRATIONS
-------
SELECTED ''ODCL tVALUATION INPUT DATA f-OR CLIFTY CREEK POWtR PLANT
HOURLY SOURCE DATA
76/10/15
M
to
I-1
HOJR
ENDING
1
?
5
H
5
S
7
4
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
I')
17
13
19
23
21
p?
?5
21
S02
STACK 1
3330.
3337.
3IC1 .
3330.
3323.
3270.
3322.
3323.
3315.
3315.
3271.
3294.
3257.
3279.
3272.
3265.
3257.
3265.
32SO.
3250.
3250.
JSSION (G/S)
STACK ?
CXIT VELOCITY
-------
SELECTED HODLL EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK POWER PLANT
HOURLY METEOROLOGY
(CLIFTY CREEK SURFACE/DAYTON
76/10/15
AfR)
to
NJ
HOUR
C NPING
1
2
T
\f
t
fi
6
7
ft
q
10
11
12
13
11
15
16
17
16
19
20
21
?2
23
?1
WIND DIR
DEC
184.
198.
1H5.
1S3.
1R5.
186.
1°2.
1P1.
196.
210.
225.
233.
222.
254.
262.
269.
2ft7.
310.
302.
299.
322.
332.
332.
31ft.
WIND SP
M/S
3.52
3.52
3.52
3.52
3.52
3.75
3.32
3.S6
4. 18
3.40
3.66
4.44
4.44
4.44
4.14
4.44
4.1H
3.66
2.91
2.1)1
3.28
3.2fl
2.11
1.41
TEMP .
OEG K
293.15
282.59
282. P9
282. f.9
292. ?9
293.15
?R3.15
2B*.«>2
297.59
290.93
293.71
294.P2
295.93
296.48
296.48
?95.57
293.71
290.37
2RB.71
2R7.59
296.48
284. P2
213.15
2RO.C3
NIX HEI3HT STAP
METERS CLASS
464.20 ' 5
393.34 5
322.47 5
251.61 5
190.75 5
109.89 5
10.99
86.99
162.99
238.99
315.00
391.00
467.00
543.00
543.00
543.00
543.00 4
547.26 4
599.55 5
651.83 5
704.12 5
755.41 5
R08.70 6
R60.98 6
-------
SELECTED HOPrL L VALUA Tl O".1 IIJI'UT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK °OUER f'LAMT
HOURLY
SO? CONCENTRATORS
7r,/10/15
(UG/1*»3)
10
CO
HOJH
ENDING
1
2
3
4
b
3
7
3
9
10
11
12
13
r+
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
21
(1)
BACON
RIDGF
107.
fl".
3".
7?.
16?.
317.
57V.
590.
718.
65.
12.
37.
31.
31.
2".
21.
5.
10.
1C.
13.
31.
31.
a.
j.
RYKERS
KIDGE
125.
39.
31.
f>0.
73.
70.
P6.
B6.
78.
53R.
213.
211.
170.
31.
37.
c'l.
5.
R.
3.
A.
13.
50.
39.
23.
ND1TH
MADISOM
55.
39.
21.
11.
60.
53.
Bl.
91.
99.
SB.
17.
12.
39.
37.
39.
21.
3.
R.
10.
1H.
23.
26.
29.
23.
HEPPOM
CHURCH
Rf..
17.
17.
5C.
17.
50.
57.
57.
17.
37.
31.
29.
29.
?3.
IP.
f .
13.
ir.
13.
16.
14.
21.
13.
(5)
LIBERTY
RIDGE
29.
16.
10.
23.
41.
60.
P9.
91.
PI.
76.
12.
31.
31.
?9.
37.
26.
8.
a.
5.
10.
in.
10.
16.
16.
CANIP
CREEK
3.
3.
3.
3.
13.
39.
H6.
B9.
91.
81.
52.
31.
31.
170.
91.
97.
13.
e.
a.
13.
18.
37.
12.
21.
CALCULATED
BACKGROUND
52.3
19.3
11.7
2B.7
13.3
56.3
«7.0
88.7
92.5
7R.5
17.n
31.3
31.3
31.7
33.0
21.5
5.2
9.7
7.S
12.4
21.5
37.6
27.8
15.5
-------
SELECTED HODLL EVALUATION IMPUT OATA TOR CLIFTY CREEK =>3WER PLANT
HOURLY SOURCE OATH
76/10/28
S02 EMISSI-JN (G/S)
EXIT VELOCITY M/S)
STACK TEMPERATUE IDEG.K)
M
K)
*»
HOJR
ENDING
I
2
3
1
- fl
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
20
21
22
23
STACK 1
3322.
3248.
3226.
3263.
3270.
32P5.
3?78.
3?63.
3270.
3351.
33M.
3389.
3352.
33*7.
3374.
3367.
32*0.
3323.
3301.
3331.
3316.
3309.
3294.
STACK :
33 Cb.
3262.
3262.
32H3.
3?91.
3327.
3J13.
3379.
3357.
3327.
3349.
3357.
3349.
3342.
3335.
3313.
329R.
3313.
3327.
3312.
3306.
3M3.
3327.
STACK 3
1737.
17?2.
1729.
1700.
1692.
1*02.
2293.
2f>OB.
2931.
3011.
3165.
3246.
326R.
3304.
3377.
3370.
3333.
3355.
3385.
3399.
3343.
3377.
3407.
3407.
STACK 1
51.53
50.48
50.14
50.71
50.S3
51.06
50.94
50.71
50.S3
50. B3
52.0"
52.55
52.57
52.09
52.32
52.44
52.32
50.48
51.63
51.29
51.75
51.52
51.40
51.17
STA:K 2
51. 9R
fl .29
51.29
51.63
?1.40
51.75
52.32
52.09
53.13
52.79
52.32
52.67
52.78
P2.67
52.55
52. »»
52.09
51.B&
52.09
52.33
52.55
51.98
52.0?
52.32
STACK 3
STACK 1
27.14'
26.91
27.02
26.56
26.45
26.17
35. SB
40.82
45. K8
47.15
49.57
50.83
51.17
51.75
52.90
52.78
52.21
52.55
53.01
53.24
52.44
52.90
53.36
53.36
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 2
445.4
445.4
445.1
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 3
445.4
445.1
445.1
445.1
415.1
445.1
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
443.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
-------
SELECTED MOP1L LVALUATIOM INPUT PATA FOR CLJCTY CREEK POuEK PLANT
to
(Jl
HOURLY METEOROLOGY
(CLIFTY CREiK SURFACE/DAY TON J»PER AIR)
76/10/26
HOUR
ENDING
1
?
T
4
•j
6,
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Ib
16
17
ie
19
20
21
?2
23
.74
UINO OIR
PEG
S3.
59.
61.
72.
7R.
72.
59.
70.
62.
92.
16.
306.
297.
207.
246.
237.
243.
213.
190.
199.
207.
203.
204.
206.
yIMD $ ('
1/S
2.58
2.81
2.35
2.35
1.64
1.S4
1.64
1.41
1.17
.79
1.16
1.30
l.OR
1.30
1.45
1.45
.70
.70
1.41
2.11
2.35
2.R1
J.05
2.5b
T£Nf
DEC K
270.93
270.37
269. P2
269.26
26P.71
269.26
26B.71
261.71
271. «8
274. P2
27S.4B
277.04
27". 15
279. *2
2*0.93
2P1 .4R
2«0.<»3
27R.71
274. P2
274.26
273.71
?73.71
272.59
272.59
MIX HEIGHT
METERS
1457.65
1452.45
1447.24
1442.04
1436.83
1431.63
1426.43
182.65
393.88
585.10
786.32
987.55
1188.77
1390.00
1390.00
1390.00
1390.00
13R1.R3
1359.74
1337.65
1315.56
1293.47
1271.37
1249.26
STAB
CLASS
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
2
3
3
4
5
6
6
6
6
5
6
-------
StLECUD MOUt L LVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREFK POWER PLANT
HOURLY MEASURED S02 CONCENTRATIONS
76/10/Zfl
•UG/M..3)
to
CTi
HOJR
ENDING
1
2
3
6
7
B
3
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
25
-------
SELECTED MODF.L EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK POWER PLAMT
S02 F.MJSSION (G/S»
N)
HOJR
ENDIMG
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
H
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
13
19
20
21
22
23
21
STACK 1
2700.
2925.
2973.
3119.
3153.
3146.
31'tb.
311H.
3139.
3133.
3140.
3147.
3133.
3126.
3119.
3112.
3119.
3105.
307b.
3112.
31(15.
3126.
3105.
STACK 2
3192.
3199.
3150.
3185.
31H5.
3164.
3171.
3192.
31P5.
3171.
317B.
3171.
3176.
3164.
3157.
3171.
3171.
3143.
3129.
3143.
31 43.
3136.
3122.
312'.'.
STACK 3
5374.
3409.
33R1.
3367.
3346.
3367.
338J.
3360.
3325.
3339.
3339.
3325.
331R.
3296.
3325.
3339.
3339.
3339.
3339.
3339.
3353.
3303.
3332.
3332.
HOURLY SOURCE DATA
76/11/25
EXIT VELOCITY
STACK 1 STAC< 2 STAC< 3
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445. ^
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445-. 4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
4 4 5^. 4-
445.4
445.4
-------
SELECT-D MODEL EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CUI-TY CREEK POWER PLANT
M
N>
00
HOIIHLY METEOROLDGY
2
276.46
27P.15
2R0.93
293.15
?B4.*2
2PS.4B
2fl7.?9
2B7.59
295.37
2B3.71
2B4.P2
2B5.?7
2S5.93
285.93
2B5.93
2P5.93
MIX HEIGHT
METERS
B66.62 .
R&&.96
R67.29
667.63
867.97
868.30
468.64
50.50
187.25
324.00
4&0.75
597.50
734.25
871.00
371.00
871.00
871.00
852.39
H2fl.l7
B03.95
779.73
755.51
731.29
707.07
STAR
CLASS
6
3
4
5
5
5
5
4
6
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-------
SELECTED «OOH. LVALUMIOW INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK 'OVER PLANT
HOURLY MEASURED
S02 CONCENTRATIONS
76/11/25
I
VD
MOUH
ENDING
1
2
3
*
•j
b
7
1U
11
15
Ifa
17
IB
19
20
21
?2
23
21
(1)
3ACON
RIDGC
17.
39.
31.
1?.
(>*.
154.
120.
65.
63.
f.h.
150.
172.
57.
IP.
?3.
It.
12.
23.
Ik.
in.
IK.
IB.
RYKERS
RICGE
52.
11.
31 .
39.
57.
63.
63.
65.
70.
70.
f6.
U.
57.
26.
18.
23.
26.
in.
52.
?9.
23.
in.
21.
21.
(3)
NORTH
MADISON
55.
17.
76.
23.
31.
39.
12.
55.
57.
76.
94.
120.
306.
131.
131.
23.
111.
55.
57.
111.
17.
26.
23.
1R.
(1)
HERRO^I
CHURCH
10.
16.
?53.
1 17.
37.
1?.
1?.
60.
IflO.
329.
29P.
55?.
567.
65.
?3?.
I 75.
13P.
151.
31?.
217.
355.
32f..
317.
IUG/M**3>
(51
LIBERTY
RIDGE
11.
31.
21.
29.
50.
52.
60.
60.
63.
65.
*6.
76.
52.
23.
16.
21.
21.
16.
11.
16.
13.
10.
16.
21.
(6)
CANJP
CREEK
10.
A.
10.
10.
13.
13.
13.
13.
16.
37.
68.
52.
12.
21.
in.
23.
23.
16.
29.
16.
16.
16.
16.
21.
CALCULATED
BACKGROUND
35.3
27.7
20.7
19.5
31.5
32.5
36.5
36.5
19.7
51.0
77.0
61.0
50.3
22.0
17.0
22.0
23.3
16.0
36.5
16.0
11.5
13.0
16.0
21.0
-------
SELECTED MODCL {.VALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK POUiR PLANT
HOURLY SOURCE DATA
76/12/27
SO? EMISSION (G/S)
EXIT VELOCITY (I/SI
STACK TEMPERATUE CD£G K)
CO
O
HOUR
ENDING
1
2
3
7
ft
?
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
IB
19
20
21
22
23
21
STACK 1
3279.
3293.
3279.
3131.
3372.
3?71.
3272.
3316.
330B.
3228.
3?79.
3265.
3257.
3264.
3257.
3199.
3215.
3222.
3251.
3236.
3222.
3??2.
r.T«CK
3270.
3299.
3506.
3313.
3328.
3306.
3320.
3328.
3335.
3313.
3306.
3313.
3292.
3270.
3?77.
3263.
32B5.
3295.
3263.
3270.
3270.
3263.
3263.
3285.
STACK 3
3370.
3370.
3370.
3377.
3362.
3370.
3370.
3363.
3355.
334P.
3341.
3334.
3326.
3J05.
3298.
3312.
3312.
3305.
3319.
3291.
3276.
3247.
3254.
3254.
STACK 1
52.09
51.9P
52.21
51. 9B
49.68
51.96
51.96
51.96
52.55
52.44
51.17
51.52
51.98
51.75
51.63
51.75
51.63
50.71
50.94
51. C6
51.52
51.29
51.06
51.06
STACK 2
52.44
52.99
53.01
?3.13
53.36
53.01
53.24
53.36
53.47
53.13
53.01
53.13
52.78
52.44
52.55
52.32
52.67
52.67
52.32
52.44
52.44
52.32
52.32
52.67
STACK 5
STACK I
53.92
53.92-
53. B2
53.93
53.70
33.92
53.82
53.70
53.59
53.47
53.36
53.24
53.13
52.78
52.67
52.90
52.90
52.78
53.01
52.55
52.32
51.96
51.9B
51. 9B
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 2
445.4
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
STACK 3
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.1
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445*4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
445.4
-------
SELECTED MODTL EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK oflUER PL»MT
U)
HOURLY METEOROLOGY
(CLIFTY CREEK SURFACE/DAYTON JPPER AIRI
76/12/27
HOUR
ENDING
1
?
3
4
5
6
7
R
9
10
1 1
I?
13
I*
IS
16
J7
IP
1?
2d
21
?2
?3
21
WIND DIR
DEC
33P.
292.
2BT.
252.
190.
179.
12B.
146.
156.
176.
194.
199.
197.
195.
193.
119.
1«6.
1«9.
204.
212.
217.
224.
232.
235.
WIND SI'
VS
1.38
1.41
l.»l
.94
.70
.94
.70
2.35
2.61
J.92
4.96
.70
.44
.92
.16
.70
.70
4.70
b.49
4.44
3.92
3.66
4.18
4.96
TEMP
DEC K
265.37
264.26
264.26
264.26
264.82
264. P2
265.37
265. °3
266.48
267.59
269.82
273.15
274.26
275. 27
27S.4B
276.15
279. P2
279. *2
280.93
2B1.4R
2B2.C4
292. P4
293.15
.283.15
HIX HEIGHT STAB
METERS CLASS
751.17 6
775.70 6
000.22 6
824.75 7
849.27 6
B73.60 6
898.32 5
922.85
947.37
971.90
996.42
1020.95
1045.47
1070.00
1070.00
1070.00
1070.00
1054.02
1031.62 4
1009.21 4
986. Rl 4
964.41 4
942.01 4
919.61 4
-------
sr.LEcuo nonr.L EVALUATION INPUT DATA FOR CLIFTY CREEK POWER PLANT
HOURLY 1EASURE3 S02 CONCENTRATIONS
-------
APPENDIX F
Statistics for Revised MPSDM Runs
-------
Appendix F; Statistics for Revised MPSDM Runs
In this appendix, a second set of performance statistics is presented
for the MPSDM model. This new set of statistics was generated after the
model developer, Environmental Research and Technology, Inc. (ERT),
expressed concerns about the manner in which MPSDM was originally
exercised. The steering committee for the AMS/EPA cooperative agreement was
in the process of conducting a peer scientific review for rural models, and
after considering ERT's comments, recommended to EPA that MPSDM should be
re-evaluated. The performance statistics presented here are for MPSDM
re-run in accordance with the AMS instructions.
The primary concern of the model developer was the fact that they were
not able to independently reproduce the concentration values predicted for
the 1-hour time period corresponding to the highest value - a value provided
to them by TRC. The developer suspected that incorrect input run streams
associated with ambiguity in the MPSDM user's manual was the problem. Of
particular concern were units used for wind speed and stack gas temperature.
The developer was also concerned with the manner in which wind speed
data were input. TRC carried out the evaluation of MPSDM and the other
models under study using an existing data base prepared by Teknekron
Research, Inc. for the Clifty Creek power plant in Indiana. The wind speed
data in the Teknekron data base consisted of "effective" 7 m data,
calculated by adjusting wind speeds measured at 60 m on-tower to a 7 m
height using the CRSTER rural wind profile. The effective 7 m data were
subsequently input to the models and extrapolated to stack-height using each
model's respective wind profile coefficients (See Table 3, page 22). The
wind speeds at stack height calculated by MPSDM using the "effective" 7 m
data are different from the wind speeds MPSDM would calculate from the
F-2
-------
measured 60 ra wind speeds because MPSDM employs wind profile coefficients
different from the CRSTER profile. (All the other models under study employ
the CRSTER wind profile coefficients.)
In the re-run of MPSDM, the corrections to the input data streams were
made and a new set of wind profile coefficients was used that first
restores the effective 7 m wind speeds to the values actually observed at
60 m on-tower, then extrapolates the measured 60 m wind speeds to stack
height according to the wind-profile coefficients of the MPSDM model. In
addition, a new MPSDM code (Version 2.20) was utilized for the second run.
Version 2.20 was not originally available in time for computer
implementation and check-out. Besides the different wind profile
coefficients, Version 2.20, as run, differs from the original version in
that Version 2.20 employs six stability classes (4 nonstable, 2 stable
classes) while the original version used five classes (4 nonstable, 1 stable
class).
The readers should be aware, therefore, that differences in the
performance statistics for the two versions of MPSDM are associated with the
following:
(1) Units used for wind speed;
(2) Units used for stack gas temperature;
(3) Alterations to the wind speed profiles;
(4) Used of six vs. five stability classes.
F-3
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE
AND PHE01CTFO
OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CHEEK (1975)
MODELJ MPSOM
AVERAGING TIHEi 1 HOUR
DATA SfcIS
(
1. ALL SI AT IONS/ALL
fVtNIS (A-4A)
2. HY STA 1 IUN/ALL
tVtNTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
SIATIUN 3
STAI1UK 4
SU11GN 5
STATION 6
3. HY METKOHOLOGICAL
CUNIHUUN (A-5)
A. WIND SPEED
<2.5 K/5EC
2.5 10 5 M/SEC
>5 K/SEC
tl. SIAeiLllY GROUP
CLASS A S 1)
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS t H F
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE
,UG/M*3)
790.8
508.9
535.0
580.1
550.0
225.9
512.6
652.5
652.0
489.9
481.3
678.9
5B6.6
390.0
AVERAGE DIFFERENCE
PREDICTED OF AVERAGES
VALUE (OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3) (UG/M**3)
1662.2
748.2
1076.4
1469.4
839,9
1359.5
798.2
1862.2
856.0
274.6
1455.1
1361.0
1442.8
99.2
-1071. 5(
-1250.8,
-239. 3( -327.2,
-541. 4( -665.1,
-909.4(-1061.6,
-269. 9( -416.4,
-1133.6(-1419.6,
-265. 6( -408.2,
-1209.7(-1380.3,
-206. 0( -325.7,
215. 3( 158.6,
-973. 8(
-682. 1(
-856. 2(
298. 8(
-1152.6,
-896.6,
-997.7,
196.5,
-692.2)
-151.5)
-397.6)
-757.1)
-163.4)
-847.5)
-163.1)
-1039.2)
-86.2)
272.1)
-795.0)
-465.4)
-714.7)
401.0)
-1019. 0(
-205. 9(
-431. 6(
-950. 4(
-169. 9(
-928. 9(
-307. 9(
-1142. 8(
-212. 9(
160. 6(
-946. 4(
-699. 4(
'890. 7(
212. e(
DIFFERENCE
OF KEDIANS
(OBS-PHED)
(UG/K»*3)
-1179.0,
-2/0.3,
-561.3,
-1037.7,
-314.0,
-1351.1,
•413.7,
-1304.4,
-273.4,
135.6,
•1066.4,
-765.1,
-983.5,
167.9,
-887.2)
•144.7)
-340.6)
-780. C)
•136.2)
•720.1)
-197.7)
-1009.1)
-158.0)
248.8)
•733.9)
-452.9)
-670.0)
274.0)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OB8/PRED)
0.40(
0.23(
0.10(
0.92(
0.2K
O.OK
1.38(
0.25(
1.7K
5.8S(
o.oe(
0.27(
0.06(
227.99(1
0.20,
0.12,
0.05,
0.46,
0.10,
0.01,
0.70,
0.13,
0.86,
2.95,
0.79)
0.46)
0.21)
1.82)
0.41)
0.03)
2.74)
0.50)
3.39)
11.60)
0.04, 0.16)
0.14, 0,53)
0.03, 0.11)
14.92,452.28)
FREQUENCY >
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRtD)
(FRACTION)
0.96
0.68
0.96
0.96
0.64
1.00
0.7?
1.00
0.80
-0.92
1.00
0.92
1.00
-1.00
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.^WO
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PMFnifTEO
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TINE OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL I MPSOM
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
IIATA SKIS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/C**3)
.
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/H**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
I. ALL STATIONS/ALL
tVbNTS (A-4A) 476.3 810.8
-33a.5( -422.4, -246.6)
-275.3( -357.8, -233.7)
0.28( 0.14, 0.56)
0.92 (.385)
7
Ln
2. MY STATION/ALL
tVfcHTS (A-4B)
STA11UN 1
STATION 2
STAIIUN 3
SIATIUN 4
STATION 5
STAIIUN 6
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. HIND SPEED
<2.5 H/SfcC
2.5 TO 5 H/SEC
>5 M/SEC
H. SIAHILIIY GROUP
CLASS A R H
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS E ft f
322.6
286.6
315.9
JI3.3
125.6
257.9
316.2
410.5
308.1
228.3
359.0
3fl5.5
196.9
329.6
445,7
677.2
344.4
505.1
311.2
786.0
533.2
164.4
550.8
611.9
581.7
148.0
-7.K
•159. 0(
•361. 3(
-31. 1(
-379. 5(
-53. 3(
-469. 8(
-122. 7(
143. 8(
-322. 5(
-252. 9(
-196. 1(
48. 9(
-50.3,
-227.3,
-464.9,
-84,4,
-496.2,
-122,3,
-561.3,
-188.8,
92.4,
-409.4,
-367.0,
-273.5,
-42.2,
36,2)
-90,8)
-257.7)
22.1)
-262.8)
T5.8)
-378.2)
-56.5)
195.2)
-235.5)
-138,9)
-118.8)
140.0)
-27. 1(
-151. 7(
-380. 0(
-3.4(
-275. 4(
-90. 4(
-424. 9(
-100. 9(
81. 5(
-287. 7(
-205. 6(
-158. 3(
94. 5(
•58.2,
-221.3,
-410.3,
•73.5,
-448.2,
-109.2,
-476.6,
•164.9,
78.9,
-368.2,
-285.8,
-252.3,
57.3,
33.6)
-70.9)
-259.5)
15.5)
-204.1)
•19.9)
-367.1)
"62.3)
193.0)
-245. fc)
-119.4)
-104.2)
116.7)
0.94(
0,'33(
0.48(
0.96(
0.03(
1.08(
0.24(
0.7K
6.5M
-
0.55(
0.22(
0.26(
0.36(
0.47,
0.17,
0.24,
0.48,
0.01,
0.54,
0.12,
0.36,
3.32,
0.28,
0.11,
0.13,
0.18,
1.86)
0.65)
0.96)
1.90)
0.05)
2.14)
0.49)
1.41)
13.06)
1.09)
0.44)
0.52)
0.71)
0.24
0.64
0.88
0.32
0.92
0.44
0,96
0.60
-0.84
0.88
0.76
0.72
-0.76
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED ANU PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIKE OH LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL I MPSDM
AVERAGING UCl ! 24 HOUR
AVERAGE
OATA SKIS OBSERVED
VALUE
IUG/M*J4
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M«*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PHEO)
(UG/f**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FFRED)
(FRACTION)
ALL S1AT10NS/ALL
kVtNIS (A«4A)
126.7
164.3
-37.6( -63.0, -12.1)
"29.9( -17.6, -15.0)
0.37( 0.19, 0.7/1)
0.18 (.385)
UY STATION/ALL
fcVEftlS (A-40)
SIAIION
STATION
STATION
STATION
STAIIOK
STATION
97. a
65.4
78.1
84.5
34.9
57.5
60.6
77.1
132.9
72.1
77.4
59. a
36. 7(
-11. 7(
-5
-------
TABLF A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALL'F" (UNPAIRED !".' TKC OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CHEEK (1976)
MODEL! HPSDM
AVERAGING TI^EI I HOUR
AVERAGE
OAFA ShlS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/f*«J)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/K«*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PHED)
IUGYH«*3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OBS/PREO)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FFREO)
(FRACTION)
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A) 771.6
1830.0 -1058.2(-1225.7, -890.7)
-854.6(M156.3, -816.8)
0.05( 0.02, 0.09)
1.00 (.365)
2. BY SIATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STAflOh 3
SIAIIOK 4
SIATION 5
STATION 6
1. UY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. WIND SPEED
<«>.5 K/SEC
2.5 10 5 M/SEC
>S K/SEC
b. aiAIJlLIFY GROUP
CLASS A 8 B
CLASS C
CLASS I)
CLASS fc & F
581.7
656.9
450.3
546.7
321.3
496.8
669.0
667.5
458.5
541.4
631.4
6/2.4
543.5
730.3
866.4
1365.2
875.3
1246.5
859.2
1630.0
788.9
360.2
1341.3
1449.5
1138.4
124.7
-148. 6( •246.1,
-207. 5( -327.4,
-914.9(-1085.3,
-328. 6( -432.2,
-925.2(-l229.2,
•362. 4( -490,0,
-1161.0(-1332.9,
-121. 4( -190,6,
98. 3( 10.4,
-799.9(-1020.2,
-818.1 (-1016.4,
-466. 0( -604.8,
218. 8( 179.5,
•49.1)
-87.6)
-744.5)
-225.0)
•621.2)
•234.8)
-989.1)
-52.2)
186.2)
-579.6)
-619.8)
-327.2)
258.1)
•68. 7(
-140. 5(
-925. 9(
-260. 5(
1
-182.3,
-257.2,
•1125.0,
•374.5,
-784.6(-1047.6,
-307. 0(
-962. 6(
-94. 6(
122. 0(
-558. 7(
-690. 6(
-469. 9(
175. 6(
•392.6,
•1246.3,
•153.8,
62.2,
•917.5,
•928.6,
-558.4,
166.9,
-27.7)
-66.5)
•633.7)
-208.8)
-495.8)
•193.4)
-923.8)
-58.2)
146.6)
.
-496.9)
-562.4)
-276. fl)
227.6)
0.2K
0.3K
0.07(
0.15(
0.05(
O.IK
O.IK
0.57(
0.45(
0.07(
0.10(
O.OM
35.02(
0.10,
0.16,
0.03,
0.08,
0.03,
0.05,
0.06,
0.29,
0.22,
0.04,
0.05,
0.04,
17.65,
0.41)
0.61)
0.13)
0.31)
0.10)
0.21)
0.22)
1.12)
0.66)
0.14)
0.20)
0.16)
69.46)
0.36 (.385)
0.44 (.385)
1.00 (.385)
0.88 (.385)
0.92 (.385)
0.76 (.385)
1.00 (.365)
0.52 (.385)
-0.60 (.365)
0.96 (.385)
0.96 (.365)
0.76 (.365)
-1.00 (.365)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MOOELI MPSOM
AVERAGING TIKEl 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DA|A SbIS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/M*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PREO)
(UG/K**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(OHS/PRED)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
tVENIS (A-4A)
480.9
631. 4
-350.5( -150.3, -350,7)
-306.4( -405.7, -205.2)
O.IK 0.05, 0.21)
0.92 (.385)
oo
^. HY STATION/ALL
EVEN1S (A-4B)
SFAUOK 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
J. HY METEONOLOGICAL
COUU11ION (A-5)
A. MM) SPEED
<2.5 f/StC
2.5 TU 5 P/3EC
>5 M/SEC
B. SIAHILITY GKOUP
CLASS A 8 B
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS E & F
372.7
373.6
252.6
360.2
1/7.1
287.6
330.6
115.5
316.0
263.8
364.3
443.1
217.9
304.3
363.2
673.9
405.6
465.6
336.9
791,3
493.0
187.3
629.1
578.4
488.7
91.0
68. 4 (
10. 4(
-421. 1(
-45. 6(
-308. 5(
-51. 1(
-452. 7(
-47. 5(
128. 7(
-365. 3(
-214. 1(
-45. 6(
126. 9(
22.4,
-58.5,
-544, 6r
-133,8,
-425,8,
-96.8,
-561.3,
-114.6,
81.3,
-493.0,
-296.2,
-132.5,
82.7,
114,4)
79.3)
-297.4)
42.6)
-191.2)
-5.4)
-344.1)
19.6)
176.1)
-237.6)
-130.0)
41.3)
171.1)
67. 6(
52. 3(
•331. 3t
-43. 9(
-277, 0(
-37. 0(
-369. 0(
-34. 1(
109. 3(
-261. 0(
-153. 9(
-20. 0(
132. 7(
12.7,
-22.8,
•415.6,
-63.6,
-366.4,
-65.4,
-513.8,
-62.5,
61.6,
-414.0,
-246.4,
-72.3,
95.1,
114.3)
B3.3)
-268.5)
35,7)
-146.7)
1.8)
-292.3)
13.6)
143.8)
-181.4)
-122.2)
53.6)
154.0)
0.62(
0.4K
0.06(
0.29(
O.IK
0.26C
0.09(
0.29(
2.98.(
0.08(
0.27(
0.14(
1.38(
0.31,
0.21,
0.04,
0.15,
0.05,
0.14,
0.04*
0.14,
1.50,
0.04,
0.14,
0.07,
0.70,
1.23)
0.62)
0.15)
0.58)
0.21)
0.55)
0.17)
0.57)
5.92)
0.16)
0.53)
0.27)
2.74)
-0.52
-0.26
0.92
0.20
0.68
0.36
0.96
0.24
-0.72
0.72
0.84
-0.24
-0.84
(.385)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.365)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
302 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CL1FTY CREEK (1976)
MOOELt MPSOM
AVERAGING T IKE! 21 HOUR
AVERAGE
UAIA StlS OBSERVED
VALUE
(UG/C**3)
4
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE
(UG/H**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(OBS-PRED)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(OBS-PREU)
(UG/M«*3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON .
(OBS/PRED)
--
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPREO)
(FRACTION)
ALL SIA1 IONS/ALL
tVfcNlS (A-/IA) 125.3
139.5
•11.at -26.2, -0.2)
19.Ot
1.6)
0.45( 0.23, 0.90)
0.28 (.385)
T
2. MY S1ATION/ALL
EVEIUS (A-
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES BVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODELi MPSDM AVERAGING TIME) 1 HOUR
performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
3768
Average Observed
Value
co
tug/a' )
109.5
Average Predicted
Value
5 n/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A i B
Class C
Class D
Class E t F
1374
886
1139
1028
742
723
2580
2851
461
601
1036
3133
1122
94.2
96.0
84.4
96.9
56.1
93.8
78.3
90.3
130.9
96.0
105.1
91.5
59.3
53.
91.
119.
92.
69.
65.
122.
51.
47.
224.
158.
56.
8.
7
8
7
0
7
8
9
4
1
6
8
4
4
40.5
4.2
-35.3
4.9
-13.6
28.0
-44.6
38.9
83.8
-128.6
-53.7
35.2
50.9
(±9-0>
(+16.9)
(+18.7)
(+12.7)
(+21.3)
(±15.9)
(+12.4)
(+6.1)
(+14.6)
(+31.9)
(+19.4)
(+7.1)
(+5.0)
0.63
0.27
0.15
0.47
0.03
0.46
0.12
0.67
3.04
0.10
0.24
0.34
14.42
(0.57,
(0.24,
(0.13,
(0.42,
(0.03,
(0.40,
(0.11,
(0.61,
(2.60,
(0.09,
(0.21,
(0.31,
(12.89,
0.71)
0.30)
0.16)
0.52)
0.03)
0.52)
0.14)
0.73)
3.56)
U.i2)
0.27)
0.38)
16.13)
-0.59
-0.49
-0.52
-0.30
-0.79
-0.61
-0.49
-0.59
-0.49
-0.33
-0.36
-0.53
-0.78
(.052)
(.065)
(.057)
(.060)
(.071)
(.072)
(.038)
(.036)
(.090)
(.078)
(.060)
(.034)
(.057)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OP OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTX CREEK (1975) MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
7
Performance Measures - paired Comparisons
* Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 3768
Bias
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
-5.B (+>4. 2)
Characteristic Discrepancies
Fraction of
positive
Residuals
(C0> Cp)
0.72
Noise
(Variance)
(pg/m')'
81612 (78058, 85438)
Gross
variability
(iig/m')'
81623
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
154.9 0.06 (0.03, 0.09)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - fn)| max
(fraction)
-0.24 (.031)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
5892
5.8 (+9.2)
0.75
63224 (61006, 65576)
63247
135.7
-0.03 (-0.05, -0.00)
-0.26 (.025)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
<2.5 w/sec
2.5 to 5 a/sec
>5 in/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A * B
Class C
Class o
Class E t F
1374
886
1139
1028
742
723
2580
2851
461
601
1036
3133
1122
40.5 (±14.1)
4.2 (+23.2)
-35.3 (+29.1)
4.9 (+17.1)
-13.6 (+26.4)
28.0 (+.25.7)
-44.6 (±18.4)
38.9 (+8.2)
83.8 (+24.2)
-128.6 (+.44.5)
-53.7 (+25.4)
35.2 (+.11.0)
50.9 (+7.2)
0.78
0.74
0.73
0.64
0.87
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.78
0.57
0.61
0.79
0.89
31549
67826
103126
43800
88555
51152
1061188
25976
26290
157656
107682
44090
7695
(29325,
(61955,
(95187,
(40263,
(80234,
(46288,
(100640
(24682,
(23219,
(141334
(99017,
(41991,
(7098,
34061)
74661)
112203)
47874)
98381)
56909)
, 112252)
27384)
30083)
, 177290)
117655)
46365)
8378)
33166
67768
104283
43782
88620
51866
108134
27478
33247
173920
110644
45312
10283
122.0
148.0
162.9
132.3
111.8
133.2
169.3
105.6
133.9
242.2
200.6
120.3
61.8
-0.08
-0.04
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.08
-0.05
0.06
-0.03
0.02
-0.08
-0.10
-0.11
-0.13,
-0.10,
-0.05,
-O.OB,
-0.09,
-0.16,
-0.09,
0.03,
-0.12,
-0.06,
-0.14,
-0.13,
-0.17,
-0.03)
0.03)
0.06)
0.05)
0.05)
-0.01)
-0.02)
0.10)
0.06)
0.10)
-0.02)
-0.06)
-0.05)
-0.23
-0.25
-0.22
-0.15
-0.41
-0.26
-0.27
-0.22
-0.12
-0.21
-0.19
-0.24
-0.24
(.052)
(.065)
(.057)
(.060)
(.071)
(.072)
(.038)
(.036)
(.090)
(.078)
(.060)
(.034)
(.057)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTX CHEEK (1975)
MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
1.
Data Sets
Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
1353
Average Observed
Value
C0
(ng/in1 )
89.4
Performance Measures - unpaired
Average Predicted Difference Variance
Value of_Averages Comparison
Cr* « r*
P ° 5»P
dig/m1 ! (ug/«3I s0VSp'
91.5 -2.0 (+.9.8) 0.32 (0.29, 0.36)
Comparisons
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
1£5 a/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A & B
Class C
Class D
Class E fc F
1064
734
880
822
532
554
1434
2608
544
430
878
2652
716
78.6 ,
73.
69.
76.
46.
76.
62.
71.
96.
72.
84.
72.
53.
5
5
6
3
3
1
7
8
2
6
1
9
45.3
72.5
101.6
72.4
64.2
55.8
108.1
54.0
36.3
156.5
123.0
50.7
14.5
33.3
1.0
-32.1
4.1
-18.0
20.6
-46.1
17.8
60.5
-84.3
-38.4
21.4
39.4
(+6.9)
(+11.1)
(+13.7)
(+8.7)
(+15.3)
(+11.6)
(+10.5)
(+4.9)
(+9.2)
(.+19.8)
(+13.3)
(+4.9)
(+6.4)
0.92
0.40
0.19
0.77
0.04
0.57
0.16
0.53
3.43
0.21
0.29
0.50
0.94
(0.82,
(0.35,
(0.17,
(0.68,
(0.04,
(0.50,
(0.14,
(0.48,
(2.98,
(0.18,
(0.25,
(0.45,
(0.82,
1.02)
0.46)
0.22)
0.88)
0.05)
0.66)
0.18)
0.59)
3.94)
0.25)
0.33)
0.55)
1.07)
-0.47
-0.36
-0.43
-0.16
-0.66
-0.55
-0.31
-0.48
-0.49
0.32
-0.25
-0.43
-0.73
(.059)
(.071)
(.065)
(.067)
(.083)
(.082!
(.051)
(.038)
(.082)
(.093)
(.065)
(.037!
(.072)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK {1975) MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
Number
of
Data Sets Events
i. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 1353
Average
Difference
Cp)
0.69
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(ng/ra* )l
31332 (29108, 33848)
Gross
Variability
(Mg/m')1
31313
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
dig/in1 )
110.0 0.09 (0.03, 0.14)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
(f(d) - rn)J max
(traction)
-0.20 (.052)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A * B
Class C
Class D
Class E fc F
532
357
440
411
266
277
717
1304
272
215
439
1281
358
33.3
1.0
-32.1
4.2
-18.0
20.5
-46.1
17.8
60.5
-84.3
-38.4
21.4
39.4
(±13.1)
(±20.1)
(+28.1)
(±14.2)
(±24.5)
(±28.9)
(+19.9)
(+9.2)
(±15.1)
(+32.8)
(+22.5)
(+10.7)
(+12.6)
0.73
0.70
0.68
0.56
0.78
0.75
0.59
0.73
0.78
0.47
0.55
0.72
0.88
14373
24089
43550
15098
33428
20857
43422
15944
10488
44324
41071
18608
8450
(12800,
(20932,
(38355,
(13241,
(28438,
(17798,
(39277,
(14792,
(8938,
(37063,
(36166,
(17252,
(7344,
16288)
28102)
49999)
17421)
40022)
24876)
48331)
17250)
12530)
54227)
47161)
20146)
9856)
15455
24024
44482
15079
33625
21205
45484
16247
14072
51218
42451
19053
9977
90.9
101.4
125.2
88.8
91.6
99.6
131.3
85.4
86.6
153.6
133.7
90.3
60.9
-0.08
-0.02
-0.02
0.07
-0.09
-0.08
-0.08
0.04
0.15
-0.01
-0.01
-0.12
-0.10
(-0.17,
(-0.12,
(-0.12,
(-0.03,
(-0.21,
(-0.20,
(-0.16,
(-0.02,
(0.03,
(-0.14,
(-0.10,
(-0.17,
(-0.20,
0.00)
0.08)
0.07)
0.16)
0.03)
0.04)
-0.01)
0.09)
0.26)
0.12)
0.08}
-0.06)
0.00)
-0.15
-0.19
-0.25
-0.10
-0.35
-0.23
-0.20
-0.19
0.12
-0.14
-0.14
-0.18
-0.26
.083)
.102)
.092)
.095)
.118)
.116)
.072)
.053)
.117)
1.131)
.092)
1.054)
.102)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
337
Average Observed
Value
(wg/«* )
38.3
Average Predicted
Value
CP
(ug/m1 )
37.0
Difference
of Averages
Co' Cp
(pg/mj)
1.3 (+.6.2)
Variance Frequency Distribution
Comparison Comparison
- U(C0) - t(CpU.. max
So'/Sp1 (traction)
0.49 (0.40, 0.60) -0.32 (.105)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
1152
21.9
17.4
4.5 (±2.3)
0.59 (0.53, 0.66)
-0.47 (.057)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
211
192
202
187
216
144
29.0
20.7
23.5
24.7
13.2
20.6
14.6
17.4
27.8
20.8
10.1
13.8
14.4
3.3
-4.3
3.9
a.i
6.8
(+5.1)
(+5.1)
(+7.6)
(+5.4)
(+4.1)
(+6.3)
2.26
0.62
0.30
1.18
0.11
0.51
(1.79,
(0.49,
(0.24,
(0.92,
(0.09,
(0.39,
2.84)
0.78)
0.38)
1.50)
0.14)
0.68)
-0.39
-0.42
-0.48
-0.30
-0.78
-0.48
(.1*2)
(.139)
(.135)
(.141)
(.131)
(.160)
-------
TABLE B, (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTV CREEK (1975)
MODELI MPSDM
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance
7
i_i
Data Sets
I. Highest concentration.
e vent-by-event (A-l)
2. All concentrations.
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station S
Station 6
Number
of
Events
337
1152
211
192
202
187
216
144
Bias
Average
Difference
(Co -Cp)
(ug/m'T
1.3
4.5
14.4
3.3
-4.3
3.9
3.1
6.8
(±6.1)
(±2.5)
(+6.3)
(+5.6)
(+7.7)
(+4.1)
(+4.4)
(+7.9)
Measures - Paired Comparisons
Characteristic Discrepancies
Fraction of Noise
Positive (Variance)
Residuals
(C0 * Cp) (ug/rn* )'
0.63
0.72
0.73
0.70
0.69
0.63
0.85
0.72
2596
1296
120B
1021
2316
694
910
1502
(2247
(1197
(1009
(845,
(1926
(573,
(761,
(1210
. 3043)
, 1409)
. 1481)
1265)
, 2853)
862)
1113)
, 1929)
Gross
Variability
Oig/m')1
2590
1315
1410
1027
2323
705
915
1538
Average Correlation Frequency Distribution
Absolute Coefflcien^ Normality Test
Difference lf(d) - tn)| max
(pg/m1 ) (fraction)
34.6
22. B
25.5
21.6
30.0
18.1
18.1
23.5
0.26 (0.15,
0.22 (0.17,
0.16 (0.02,
0.22 (0.08,
0.28 (0.15,
0.51 (0.39,
0.06 (-0.07
-0.01 (-0.17
0.35)
0.28)
0.28)
0.35)
0.40)
0.61)
, 0.19)
, 0.16)
-0.12
-0.18
0.14
-0.18
-0.23
0.14
-0.37
-0.17
(.105)
(.057)
(.132)
(.139)
(.135)
(.141)
(.131)
(.160)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-BVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Data Sets
Number
of
Events
Average Observed
Value
C -
Average Predicted
Value
1 )
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Difference
of_Avera_ges
C0 - Cp
(ug/«3f
Variance
Comparison
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
|f(C0) - f(Cp)l max
(fraction)
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
430B
122.6
96.8
25.8 (17.9)
0.31 (0.28, 0.34)
-0.51 (.029)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
<5\
6788
95.5
69.2
26.3 (+5.4)
0.34 (0.31, 0.37)
-0.55 (.023)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Hind Speed
<2.5 in/sec
2.5 to 5 ra/sec
>5 n/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A d B
Class C
Class D
Class E (. K
1519
1263
1166
1363
554
923
2459
3884
445
588
1292
3654
3982
99.8
98.2
82.2
100.3
69.1
110.3
82.4
100.5
124.4
105.1
106.1
103.1
58.0
51
50
103
80
89
52
111
43
58
197
147
41
8
.0
.7
.3
.5
.0
.9
.4
.7
.7
.5
.6
.7
.4
48.8
47.5
21.1
19. B
19.9
.57.4
-29.0
56.8
65.7
-92.4
-41.5
61.4
49.6
(+8.8)
(+11.0)
(116.3)
(+10.6)
(+27.2)
(113.3)
(+12.0)
(+5.0)
(+15.6)
(130.8)
(+16.8)
(+5.6)
(+2.1)
0.91
0.68
0.12
0.56
0.07
0.39
0.15
1.03
1.20
0.14
0.22
0.82
6.88
(0.82,
(0.61,
(0.11,
(0.51,
(0.06,
(0.34,
(0.14,
(0.94,
(1.02,
(0.13,
(0.20,
(0.74,
(6.25,
1.01)
0.76)
0.14)
0.63)
0.08)
0.44)
0.17)
1.13)
1.42)
0.17)
0.24)
0.90)
7.57)
-0.60
-0.66
-0.51
-0.34
-0.68
-0.74
-0.52
-0.61
-0.48
-0.32
-0.39
-0.60
-0.7?
(.049)
.054)
.056)
.052)
.082)
.063)
(.039)
(.031)
(.091)
(.079)
(.054)
(.032)
(.030)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF. OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BV-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: MPSDM
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Performance Measures - Paired Comparisons
Bias
»
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 4308
Average
Difference
Cp)
0.75
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(Mg/m')1
67215 (64471, 70155)
Gross
Variability
(wg/m' ) '
67866
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(lig/ra' )
150.8 0.06 (0.03, 0.09)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
lf(d) - ln)J max
(fraction-).
-0.22 (.029)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
6788
26.3 (17.9)
0.77
54615 (52827, 56504)
55299
135.7
-0.08 (-0.10, -0.05)
-0.24 (.023)
hi
| 3. All concentrations.
(^ by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Wind Speed
< 2 . 5 n/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>5 m/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A fc B
Class C
Class D
Class E & F
1519
1263
1166
1363
554
923
2549
3884
445
588
1292
3654
1254
48.8
47.6
-21.1
19.8
-19.9
57.4
-29.0
56.8
65.7
-92.4
-41.5
61.4
49.6
(+14.6)
(+14.9)
(+24.5)
(+17.1)
(+31.9)
(±18. 8)
(+16.4)
(±7.8)
(±23.5)
(+42.9)
(±22.3)
(+9.0)
(±5.7)
0.78
0.82
0.72
0.65
0.81
0.87
0.69
0.80
0.75
0.60
0.63
0.81
0.8B
33996
41784
85086
45068
108789
42928
98235
26881
29300
155315
102847
33057
5232
(31711,
(38720,
(78608,
(41879,
(97099,
(39282,
(93073,
(25727,
(25822,
(139074
(95385,
(31596,
(4B47,
36563)
45264)
92482)
48672)
122960)
47159)
103881)
28122)
33611)
, 174892)
111310)
34632)
5669)
36354
44012
85459
45428
108988
46171
99036
30100
33556
163595
104492
36818
7685
127.4
124.9
152.4
138.3
143.5
134.4
166.9
116.7
129.3
246.0
198.3
121.0
62.4
-0.11
-0.05
-0.08
-0.13
-0.05
-0.02
-0.09
-0.04
-0.04
-0.11
-0.11
-0.13
-0.22
(-0.16,
(-0.10,
(-0.14,
(-0.18,
(-0.13,
(-0.08,
(-0.13,
(-0.07,
(-0.14,
(-0.19,
(-0.17,
(-0.16,
(-0.27,
-0.06)
0.01)
-0.02)
-0.08)
0,04)
0.05)
-0.05)
-0.01)
0.05)
-0.03)
-0.06)
-0.09)
-0.17)
-0.22
-0.26
-0.27
-0.14
-0.36
-0.29
-0.27
-0.20
-0.11
-0.21
-0.20
-0.20
-0.23
(.049)
(.054)
(.056)
(.052)
(.082)
(.063)
(.038)
(.031)
(.091)
(.079)
(.054)
(.032)
(.054)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIMEs 3 HOURS
I
00
1.
Average Observed
Number value
Data Sets of C0
Events (Mg/m* )
Highest concentration.
event-by-event (A-l) 1563 100.2
Performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Average Predicted Difference Variance Frequency Distribution
Value
CP
(wg/m' )
77.0
of Averages comparison Comparison
C0 - Cp (MC0) - t(Cp)] max
(wg/m3) S0VSp* (traction)
23.2 (±8.6) 0.44 (0.39, 0.48) -0.43 (.049)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
2661
77.8
57.5
20.2 (+5.6)
0.47 (0.43, 0.52)
-0.44 (.037)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
4. By meteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. tiind Speed
<2.5 a/sec
2.5 to 5 B/sec
>5 a/ sec
b. Stability Group
Class A fc B
Class c
Class D
Class E 6 F
602
501
455
527
211
365
723
1550
388
228
503
1481
449
81.2
80.1
67.0
82.5
54.9
88.8
63.4
80.6
93.2
82.7
82.8
83.0
52.3
41
41
87
66
77
43
100
42
36
144
104
43
9
.8
.8
.2
.4
.2
.9
.8
.7
.2
.5
.2
.1
.0
39.4
38.3
-20.2
16.1
-22.4
44.8
-37.4
37.9
57.0
-61.7
-21.4
40.0
43.3
(+9.5)
(+11.4)
(+17.6)
(+11.9)
(+26.0)
(±12.9)
(+14.6)
(+6.1)
(+10.2)
(±32.2)
(+43.6)
(±6.2)
(±5.5)
1.41
0.92
0.13
0.79
0.11
0.61
0.18
0.92
2.38
0.15
0.35
1.00
3.48
(1.22,
(0.80,
(0.11,
(0.69,
(0.09,
(0.50,
(0.16,
(0.83,
(1.97,
(0.12,
(0.31,
(0.89,
(2.96,
1.62)
1.06)
0.15)
0.91)
0.14)
0.74)
0.20)
1.03)
2.87)
0.19)
0.40)
1.11)
4.10)
-0.50
-0,54
-0.42
-0.24
-0.52
-0.66
-0-33
-0.51
-0.52
-0.27
-0.29
-0.46
-0.75
(.078)
(.086)
(.090)
(.084)
(.132)
(.101)
(-072)
(.049)
(.098)
(.127)
(.086)
(.050)
(.091)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-KVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CHEEK (1976)
MODEL: MPSDM
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
**
vo
Performance Measures - paired Comparisons
Bias
Number
or
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 1563
Average
Difference
(C0 - Cp)
(pq/m" T
23.2 (UO. 6)
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0 > Cp)
0.73
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(Variance)
(ug/m1)1
26710 (24939, 2B696)
Gross
Variability
(wg/m*)'
27233
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(ug/m1 )
106.3 0.12 (0.07, 0.17)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
(f(d) - tn)J max
(fraction)
-0.19 (.049)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in tine and location)
(B-3)
2661
20.2 (17.5)
0.72
2310B (21918, 22407)
23509
99.8
-0.06 (-0.09, -0.02)
4. By neteorological
conditions, all
stations (B-4)
a. Mind Speed
< 2.5 m/sec
2.5 to 5 m/sec
>S n/sec
b. Stability Group
Class A fc B
Class C
Class D
Class E & r
723 -37.4 (+18.3) 0.59 41692 (37727, 46384) 43037
1550 37.9 (±8.1) 0.76 15330 (14309, 16475) 16760
388 57.0 (+13.9) 0.77 10868 (9496, 12595) 14083
228 -61.7 (±42.6) 0.53 63009 (52947, 76608) 66542
203 -21.4 (+18.9) 0.57 32647 (27165, 40193) 33040
1481 40.0 (+8.5) 0.74 17374 (16192, 18703) 18962
449 43.3 (+7.0) 0.87 4111 (3625, 4713) 5978
-0.19 (.037)
3. All concentrations,
by station (B-l)
Station 1
Station 2
Station 3
Station 4
Station 5
Station 6
602
501
455
527
211
365
39.4
38.3
-20.2
16.1
-22.4
44.8
(+13.7)
(±12.4)
(±25.3)
(+15.6)
(+28.3)
(+15.5)
0.73
0.77
0.66
0.61
0.72
0.84
16280
16185
39223
21180
36028
14659
(14596,
(14364,
(34614,
(18852,
(30078.
(12757,
18306)
18414)
44923)
24016)
44167)
17071)
17805
17617
39546
21399
36357
16629
94.4
90.8
115.9
98.7
106.7
95.2
-0.14
0.04
-0.11
-0.09
0.04
0.07
(-0.22,
(-0.05,
(-0.20,
(-0.17,
(-0.09,
(-0.03,
-0.06)
0.13)
-0.02)
-0.00)
0.16)
0.17)
-0.16
-0.19
-0.22
-0.11
-0.30
-0.25
(.078)
(.086)
(.090)
(.uB4)
(.132)
(.101)
127.6 -0.06 (-0.13, 0.02) -0.19 (.072)
90.0 -0.02 (-0.07, 0.03) -0.17 (.049)
87.0 -0,05 (-0.15, 0.05) -0.10 (.098)
159.2 -0.04 (-0.17, 0.09) -0.16 (.127)
125.2 -0.01 (-0.14, 0.13) -0.15 (.135)
95.1 -0.16 (-0.21, -0.11) -0.15 (.050)
56.5 -0.21 (-0.30, -0.12) -0.22 (.U91)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) MODEL: MPSDM AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
performance Measures - Unpaired Comparisons
Data Sets
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l)
Number
of
Events
357
Average Observed
Value
C° ,
(vg/»' )
45.7
Average Predicted
Value
Cp
(pg/m1 )
33.5
Difference
of Averages
C0-C
(pg/mJJ
12.2 (+5.4)
Variance
Comparison
So'/Sp'
0.71 (0.59, 0.87)
Frequency Distribution
Comparison
[f (C0) - f (Cp)l max
(fraction)
-0.32 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1206
25.4
16.2
9.2 (±2.2)
0.88 (0.79, 0.98)
-0.45 (.055)
3,
All concentrations.
^ by station (B-l)
K *
INJ
o
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
243
239
203
222
133
166
28.9
25.7
22.3
28.6
14.7
27.7
13.4
11.2
23.9
21.2
15.5
1? 0
15.5
14.5
-1.6
7.4
-0.8
15.7
<+4.6)
(+*•!)
(+6.2)
(+5.7)
(+6.1)
H4.D)
1.71 (1.36,
1.46 (1.17,
0.28 (0.22,
1.58 (1.26,
0.22 (0.16,
1.10 (0.84,
2.13)
1.83)
0.35)
1.98)
0.29)
1.42)
-0.50 (.123)
-0.56 1
-0.35 1
-0.26 |
-0.58 1
-0.57 (
M24)
1.135)
;-129)
1.167)
.149)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
SO2 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CL1FTX CREEK (1976)
MODEL: MPSDM
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
NJ
,
Number
of
Data Sets Events
1. Highest concentration,
event-by-event (A-l) 357
Bias
Average
Difference
(Co - Co)
12.3 (+5.1)
Performance
Measures - Paired Comparisons
Characteristic Discrepancies
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
1C > C \
U-O *-pl
0.75
Noise
(Variance)
(wg/m1)'
1993 (1732, 2325)
Gross
Variability
(ug/m')1
2138
Average Correlation
Absolute Coefficient
Difference
(yg/m' )
34.6 0.26 (0.16, 0.36)
Frequency Distribution
Normality Test
11 (d) - rn)J max
(fraction)
-0.14 (.102)
2. All concentrations,
all stations (paired
in time and location)
(B-3)
1206
9.1 (+2.3)
0.75
1226 (1134, 1331)
1309
24.6
0.17 (0.12, 0.23)
-0.17 (.055)
3. All concentrations.
by station (B-l)
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
243
239
203
222
133
166
15.5
14.5
-1.7
7.4
-0.8
15.6
(±5-0)
(+4 . 3 )
(+6.6)
(+5.1)
(±5.5)
(+4.5)
0.78
0.83
0.65
0.66
0.77
0.83
1150
712
1915
1363
1105
817
(971, 1389)
(601, 861)
(1593, 2358)
(1143, 1662)
(883, 1435)
(667, 1030)
1387
919
1908
1411
1097
1056
25.5
22.3
28.6
25.0
20.3
24.3
0.13 (0.00,
0.32 (0.21,
0.07 (-0.07
0.28 (0.15,
0.18 (0.01,
0.21 (0.06,
0.25)
0.43)
, 0.20)
0.40)
0.34)
0.35)
0.15
-0.17
-0.18
0.14
-0.29
-0.17
(.123)
(.124)
(.135)
(.129)
(.167)
(.149)
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
Bias
Average
Observed
Value
co
MODEL (lig/m1)
Average
Predicted
Value
(V<3%1 )
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
(ug/a'T
Fraction of
Positive
Residuals
(C0 > Cp)
Performance Measures
Characteristic Discrepancies
Gross
Noise Variability
(ng/m1)1 (Mg/rn')1
Average
Absolute
Uitference
(ng/ra1 )
Correlation
Coefficient
MPSDM 994.5 1816.2 -821.8 (+958.4) 0.17 833745 (324920, 5016516) 1370071 876.3 -0.34 (-0.90, 0.65)
7
NJ
to
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Performance Measures
Bias Characteristic Discrepancies
Average Average
Observed
Value
Predicted
Value
Average Fraction of Average
Difference positive Gross Absolute
CQ CD (Co - Co) Residuals Noise Variability Difference Correlation
MODEL
(Mg/m* )
(ug/rn' )
(lig/ro1) (C0 > Cp) (ug/m1)' (Mg/m')1 (v
g/mj ) Coetticient
MPSDM 543.3 826.3 -283.0 (+403.8) 0.33 148006 (57680, 890529) 203466 314.4 -0.05 (-0.83, 0.79)
OJ
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFFY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
Bias
MODEL
Average
Observed
Value
Co
(tig/a? )
Average
Predicted
Value
%
dig/™1 )
Average
Difference
Cp)
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(eg/Hi5)'
Gross
Variability
{ug/ra')1
Average
Absolute
Difference
(ug/ni1 )
Correlation
Coefficient
MPSDM 151.8 200.3 -48.5 £98.8) 0.33 8866 (3455, 53344) 9741 83.7 0.27 (-0.69, 0.89)
7
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OP MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIMEl 1 HOUR
Performance Measures
Bias
MODEL
Average
Observed
Value
^
(ug/m* )
Average
Predicted
Value
cp
(tig/in' )
Average
Difference
(Co - Cp)
(ug/m )
Fraction ot
Positive
Residuals
(C0 > Cp)
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(wg/m*)1
Gross
Variability
(ug/ra1 )'
Average
Absolute
Difference
(vg/ra1 )
Correlation
Coef t icient
MPSUM
858.1
1862.8
-1004.7 (+572.7)
0.00
297688 (116012, 1791142)
1257581
1004.8
0.34 (-0.65, 0.90)
(Jl
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Bias
MODEL
Average
Observed
Value
co
(pg/m* )
Average
Predicted
Value
cp
(yg/m1 )
Average
Difference
Cp)
performance Measures
Characteristic Discrepancies
Gross
Noise Variability
(ng/ra')1 Uig/m')'
Average
Absolute
Ditterence
(yg/m' )
Correlation
Coefficient
MPSDM
525.6
409.4
-383.8 (+382.2)
0.17
132590 (51672, 797773)
257740
422.8
0.07 (-0.78, 0.84)
7
to
-------
TABLE C. COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A -2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
Performance Measures
MODEL
MPSDM
Average
, Observed
Value
C0
(wg/m1 )
132.8
Average
E'redicted
Value
CP
(ng/m' )
149.3
Bias
Average Fraction of
Difference Positive
(CQ - C_) Residuals
(ug/m'T (C0 > cp)
-16.5 (157.9) 0.50
Characteristic Discrepancies
Noise
(ng/m')'
3038 (1184, 18279)
Gross
Variability
(ug/mM1
280S
Average
Absolute
Difference
(pg/m' )
46.3
Correlation
Coefficient
-0.27 (-0.89, 0.69)
N)
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIMEt i HOUR
SOConcentration
Highest
Observed
value over all
events and all
locations
MODEL
(Day , Hour )
Highest
Predicted
value over all
events and
locations
Cpniax
(Day, Hour)
Ditference between CQmax and -
Difference of
Maximum Values Predicted value Highest
for same event Predicted
and location value for same
event as
(any
C0-CC
as
location)
Difference between Co and Cpinax,
Highest Observed value Highest
Predicted for same event Observed value
Value for same and location as tor same event
location as
(any as Cpmax
event) . Cpmax (any location)
where Co is-
Hlghest
Observed value
tor same
location as
as Cpniax
(any event)
MPSUh
1672.7(24,13) 2949.1(194,9)
-1276.4
1304.4
1304.4
-472.2
-2939.6
-2939.6
-24y
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OP HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTX CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
Highest
Observed
value over all
events and all
locations
MODEL (Day, Hour Ending)
Highest
Predicted
value over all
events and
locations
Cp»ax
(Day, Hour Ending)
S02 Concentration (wg/m
3)
Difference of Difference between Comax and -
Maximum Values Predicted value Highest Highest
for same event Predicted Predicted
and location Value for same Value for same
event as location as
Comax (any
Co-Cp as Coinax location)
Co/nax (any
event)
Difference between Co and Cpmax,
Observed value Highest
for same event Observed value
and location as tor same event
Cpmax
as Cpmax
(any location)
where Co is-
Highest
Observed value
tor same
location as
as Cpmax
(any event)
MPSDM
794.0(24,15)
1260.8(5,12)
-466.8
513.9
513.9
-466.7
-1229.0
-1227.0
-466.8
10
-------
TABLE 0. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975) AVERAGING TIMEj 24 HOURS
SO2 Concentration Jug/in3)
Highest
Observed
value over all
events and all
locations
MODEL
(Day)
Highest
Predicted
value over all
events and
locations
Cpraax
(Say)
Difference between CQmax and -
Difference of
Maximum Values Predicted value Highest
tor same event predicted
and location Value for same
event as
(any
Difference between Co and
C0-C,
as Cgmax
location)
Highest Observed value
Predicted for same event
Value for same and location as
location as
Coiaax (any
event) . Cp
max
Highest
Observed value
tor same event
as Cpmax
(any location)
where Co is-
Highest
Observed value
tor same
location as
as C,/nax
(any event)
MPSDM
209.5(24)
322.4(342)
-112.9
14.2
14.2
-112.9
-297.4
-297.4
-112.9
7
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTX CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
SOj Concentration
MODEL
Highest
Observed
value over all
events and all
locations
Cgmax
(Day, Hour)
Highest
Predicted
value over all
events and
locations
Difference of
Maximum values Predicted value
for same event
and location
Difference between C0max and -
(Day, Hour)
Highest
predicted
Value for same
event as
Coinax (any
location)
Difference between C0 and Cpmax,
Highest Observed value Highest
Predicted for same event Observed value
Value for same and location as for same event
location as
(any as Cpmax
event) Cwnax (any location)
where Co is—.
Highest
Observed value
for same
location as
as Cpmax
(any event)
MPSDM
950.8(302,13) 2816.7(119,10)
-1865.9
950.8
720.0
-1865.9
-2432.9
-2432.9
-1865.9
7
OJ
H
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
SO 2 Concentration (pg/m3)
Highest
Observed
value over all
events and all
locations
C0max
MODEL (Day, Hour Ending)
Highest
Predicted
value over all
events and
locations
Cpmax
(Day, Hour Ending)
Difference of Difference between Comax
Maximum Values Predicted value Highest
for same event predicted
and -
Highest
Predicted
and location Value for same Value for same
event as
Cginax (any
Co-Cp as C^ax location)
location as
Cgiiiax (any
event)
Difference between Co and Cpmax,
Observed value
for same event
and location as
Cpinax
Highest
Observed value
for same event
as Cpjnax
(any location)
where Co is-
Highest
Observed value
tor same
location as
as CpRiax
(any event)
MPSDM
623.7(362,15)
1430.2(179,12) -806.5
618.6
610.6
-413.5
-1416.4
-1328.8
-888.2
U)
to
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTV CREEK (1976) AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
SO2 Concentration
Highest
Observed
value over all
events and all
locations
MOUEfj
(Day)
Highest
Predicted
value over all
events and
locations
Cpiuax
(Day)
Difference between Comax and -
Difference of
Maximum Values Predicted value Highest
for same event - Predicted
and location Value for same
event as
C^ax (any
CO~CD as Crjnax location)
Highest Observed value
Predicted for same event
Value for same and location as
location as
Comax (any
event) Cpmax
Difference between Co and Cpmax, where Co is-
Highesl
Observed value
tor same event
as
(any location)
Highest
Observed value
toe same
location as
as Cpmax
(any event)
MPSDM
181.2(330)
211.0(105)
-29.8
176.1
166.3
36.5
-174.4
-131.4
-78.2
7
00
u>
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
REPORT NO.
EPA-450/4-83-OQ3
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Evaluation of Rural Air Quality Simulation Models
5. REPORT DATE
October 1982
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
AUTHOR(S)
Richard Londergan, David Minott, David Wackter,
Thomas Kincaid and David Bonitata
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
TRC Environmental Consultants, Inc.
800 Connecticut Boulevard
East Hartford, CT 06108
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-02^3514
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. EPA
OAQPS, MDAD, SRAB (MD-14)
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
EPA-450/4-83-003
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
This report summarizes the results of a comprehensive evaluation of "rural"
point source air quality simulation models using routinely collected data around
the Clifty Creek power plant. The report contains numerous tabulations of each
model's performance in terms of statistical measures of performance recommended
by the American Meteorological Society.
The purpose of the report is two-fold. First, it serves to document for the
models considered, and similar models, their relative performance. Second, it
provides the basis for a peer scientific review of the models. To stay within the
spirit of this latter purpose, the report is limited to a factual presentation of
information and performance statistics. No attempt is made to interpret the sta-
tistics or to provide direction to the reader, lest reviewers might be biased.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATI Field/Group
Air Pollution
Mathematical modeling
Meteorology
Power Plants
Sulfur Dioxide
Statistical Measures
Performance Evaluation
Air Quality Impact
Assessment
New Source Review
13. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release to public
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
300
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage}
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
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