APPENDIX G
Statistical Tables for PPSP
As an addendum to "Evaluation of Rural Air Quality Simulation Models"
EPA No. 450/4-83-003 Dated: October 1982
NTIS No. PB 83-182758
-------
APPENDIX G: Statistical Tables for PPSP
This appendix documents the performance of an additional rural model
that was submitted to EPA by the developer after the original evaluation of
eight models had been completed. The Maryland Power Plant Siting Program
(PPSP) model was developed by Martin Marietta Corporation; it is based on the
original computer code of the EPA single source (CRSTER) model, but contains
a number of major changes. The following is a list of the features of PPSP
used in the evaluation that distinguish it from CRSTER:
0 Bri ggs dispersion coefficients
0 Stability class selection based on (1) convective theory of
scaling for daytime and (2) the Turner algorithm for nighttime
0 Partial penetration of buoyant plume into the capping inversion
0 Bri ggs plume rise formulas, including the "breakup" and
"touchdown" models
0 No terrain adjustments
These features and associated options were selected by the developer and
the model was run as specified by his directions. These features appear to
correct some of the scientific deficiencies in Gaussian models which had been
noted in a peer review of the original eight rural models. (See "Synthesis
of the Rural Model Reviews," EPA Report No. EPA 600/3-83-108).
All of the models, including PPSP, had to be modified to access the data
base in the unique format in which it was structured. In the case of PPSP
the following model changes in input and output formats were needed to
operate the model and to provide concentration estimates in a suitable format
for statistical evaluation: (1) annual source characteristics and source data
G-2
-------
Input hourly, and (2) concentrations computed for up to six arbitrarily
located receptors.
Before the evaluation was begun, a "test package" was forwarded to the
model developer for his approval. A similar approach had been previously used
for the other eight rural models. The package consisted of a tape containing
(1) the modified source code for the PPSP model, (2) the meteorological data,
(3) the emissions and source characteristics, (4) the control inputs for the
model runs, and (5) the model predictions for both 1975 and 1976 at Clifty
Creek. The model developer responded to the request and indicated that the
model had been correctly set up and properly used.
The data bases and statistical tests used for the original eight rural
models and for PPSP are identical. However, a few minor differences between
Tables A through D and the tables appearing in the main body of the report
should be noted. Table A which summarizes the comparisons between the 25
highest and 25 highest predicted concentrations is unchanged. Table B which
summarizes performance statistics using all concentrations paired both in
time and space has been modified slightly. Specifically, the column containing
the normality check for residuals has been dropped since it provides no
direct measure of model performance. Secondly, the columns related to gross
variability have been replaced by the square roots of these quantities which
are unquestionably easier to interpret. Third, confidence limits shown in
the main report which are expressed as +/- intervals are replaced by the actual
lower and upper confidence bounds. Table C, which compares the highest meas-
ured and predicted concentrations among the six stations has been modified to
include the same statistics for the second highest values in addition to the
G-3
-------
highest values. Also the format is different since only one model (PPSP) is
shown in Table C. Finally, Table D has been modified to include the measured
and predicted values associated with each of the residual terms. Also shown
are the station and time of occurrence for each of the maximum values.
Generally the results show that concentrations estimated by PPSP are
almost uniformly higher than the measured values, for both years, for all
three averaging periods and for each of the various data set combinations.
For the comparisons involving the highest 25 concentrations (Table A), the
model estimates are typically a factor of 2 to 3 and occasionally 5 times
higher than the corresponding measured averages. Consistent with this result,
the variance comparisons show low ratios between measured and predicted
values indicating that the spread among the 25 highest predicted values is
significantly greater than the spread among the 25 highest observed values.
Overall, comparisons of these results with the eight models evaluated pre-
viously, indicate that performance statistics for PPSP appear significantly
apart from those for the other models taken as a whole.
6-4
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E & F
509
535
580
550
226
513
652
652
490
481
679
587
398
1174
1953
3032
1421
3500
1662
3994
2075
604
2673
2505
3558
978
-665
-1418
-2452
-871
-3274
-1149
-3341
-1423
-114
-2192
-1826
-2971
-581
-770,
-1688,
.-2812,
-1033,
-3628,
-1370,
( -3630,
( -1631,
( -217,
( -2581,
( -2161,
( -3309,
( -759,
-560)
-1149)
-2092)
-709)
-2920)
-928)
-3053)
-1214)
-11)
-1803)
-1490)
-2633)
-402)
-677 (
-1266 (
-2318 (
-773 (
-3153 (
-1012 (
-3258 (
-1324 (
-94 (
-2050 (
-1828 (
-2812 (
-520 (
-757,
-1440,
-2483,
-944,
-3495,
-1226,
-3473,
-1412,
-167,
-2405,
-1979,
-3130,
-757,
-520)
-1078)
-1980)
-653)
-2948)
-890)
-2970)
-1221)
3)
-1671)
-1341)
-2521)
-373)
.16
.03
.10
.12
.01
.22
.08 (
.27 (
.35 (
.02 (
.10 (
.01 (
.46 (
.07,
.01,
.04,
.05,
.00,
.10,
.03,
.12,
.15,
.01,
.04,
.00,
.20,
.35)
.06)
.22)
.27)
.02)
.51)
.18)
.61)
.79)
.04)
.23)
.02)
1.04)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
.96
1.00
1.00
.32
1.00
1.00
1.00
.84
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
( . 385 )
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
( . 385 )
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AM. PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(Co - Cp)
5.0 M/SEC
669 4343 -3674 ( -4109, -3239)
668 1921 -1254 ( -1412, -1095)
458 642 -184 ( -271, -97)
-3231 ( -4030, -2956)
-1188 ( -1373, -1052)
-164 ( -218, -101)
.02 ( .01, .04)
.08 ( .03, .18)
.47 ( .21, 1.06)
1.00 (.385)
1.00 (.385)
.72 (.385)
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B 541 2445
CLASS C 631 3140
CLASS D 672 3300
CLASS E & F 343 1194
-1904 ( -2405, -1402)
-2509 ( -3039, -1978)
-2628 ( -3034, -2222)
-850 ( -1181, -520)
-1525 ( -2055, -1257)
-2168 ( -2296, -1809)
-2391 ( -2767, -2019)
-646 ( -852, -406)
.01 ( .01,
.01 ( .01,
.01 ( .00,
.01 ( .01,
.03)
.03)
.02)
.03)
1.00 (.385)
1.00 (.385)
1.00 (.385)
.96 (.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(Co - Cp)
( UG/M**3 )
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(Co - Cp)
( UG/M**3 )
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(So**2/Sp**2)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
1. ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
476
1992
-1515 ( -1702, -1329)
-1357 ( -I486, -1281)
.05 ( .02, .12) 1.00 (.385)
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
3. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION (A-5)
A. MIND SPEED
< 2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5.0
> 5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E & F
323
287
316
313
126
258
346
390
293
228
359
386
197
621
835
1779
735
1566
826
1905
1418
357
989
1376
1842
551
-298 (
-548 (
-1463 (
-421 (
-1440 (
-568 (
-1560 (
-1028 (
-65 (
-760 (
-1017
-1456 (
-355 1
-377,
-648,
-1672,
-488,
-1608,
-655,
-1764,
-1157,
-156,
-973,
-1135,
-1661,
-525,
-219)
-449)
-1253)
-354)
-1273)
-480)
-1355)
-899)
26)
-548)
-898)
-1251)
-184)
-264 (
-513 (
-1414 (
-399 (
-1339 (
-597 (
-1433 (
-965 (
-61 (
-537 (
-1026 (
-1330 (
-235 (
-335,
-602,
-1493,
-478,
-1582,
-661,
-1557,
-1125,
-123,
-884,
-1107,
-1496,
-331,
-195)
-409)
-1207)
-347)
-1163)
-481)
-1307)
-859)
23)
-469)
-878)
-1167)
-154)
.18
.14
.09
.45
.01
.48
.04 (
.14 (
.46 (
.07 (
.20 (
.03 (
.08 (
.08,
.06,
.04,
.20,
.01,
.21,
.02,
.06,
.20,
.03,
.09,
.01,
.04,
.40)
.31)
.21)
1.03)
.03)
1.09)
.10)
.32)
1.05)
.15)
.46)
.07)
.19)
.92
1.00
1.00
.96
1.UO
.96
1.00
1.00
.24
.96
1.00
1.00
.76
( . 385 )
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
.385)
(.385)
(.385)
( .385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
(.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
5.0 M/SEC 271 390
-1721 ( -1935, -1506)
-784 ( -960, -608)
-119 ( -192, -45)
-1655 ( -1778, -1467)
-677 ( -770, -538)
-147 ( -187, -40)
.02 ( .01,
.04 ( .02,
.41 ( .18,
.04)
.09)
.93)
1.00 (.385)
1.00 (.385)
.44 (.385)
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B 264 1145
CLASS C 364 1320
CLASS D 443 1846
CLASS E & F 218 550
-881 ( -1177, -585)
-955 ( -1136, -775)
-1403 ( -1639, -1168)
-332 ( -484, -180)
-616 ( -857, -427)
-811 ( -1007, -697)
-1337 ( -1544, -1037)
-199 ( -304, -134)
.01 ( .01,
.05 ( .02,
.02 ( .01,
.05 ( .02,
.03)
.11)
.04)
.12)
1.00 (.385)
1.00 (.385)
1.00 (.385)
.80 (.385)
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M»*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M«*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(So**2/Sp**2)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
(FRACTION)
1.
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
127
495
-368 ( -412, -324)
-359 ( -388, -310)
.10 ( .04, .23) 1.00 (.385)
cn
10
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
97
65
78
84
35
58
135
173
434
188
342
175
-38 (
-108 (
-356 (
-103 ( '
-307 (
-118 (
-62,
-132,
-410,
-127,
-360,
-149,
-14)
-83)
-303)
-80)
-254)
-87)
-25 ( -49,
-109 -123,
-347 -406,
-96 -123,
-270 -354,
-105 -122,
-12)
-79)
-275)
-72)
-219)
-87)
.« (
.29 (
.10 (
.11 (
.01 (
.19 (
.19,
.13,
.04,
.05,
.00,
.08,
.98)
.66)
.22)
.26)
.01)
.43)
.44 .385)
.96 .385)
1.00 .385)
. 96 . 385 )
1.00 .385)
. 92 . 385 )
-------
TABLE A. COMPARISON OF 25 HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES (UNPAIRED IN TIME OR LOCATION)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
AVERAGE
DATA SETS OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
( UG/M*«3 )
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
( UG/M**3 )
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF MEDIANS
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
(So**2/Sp*«2)
FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(FOBS-FPRED)
( FRACTION )
1.
ALL STATIONS/ALL
EVENTS (A-4A)
125
418
-293 ( -339,
-270 ( -287, -229)
.03 ( .01, .07) 1.00 (.385)
j
o
2. BY STATION/ALL
EVENTS (A-4B)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
96
65
64
108
40
72
114
164
350
169
300
178
-17 -36, 1) -8 ( -25, 5) .20 ( .09, .46) .28 (.385)
-79 -100, -57) -70 -91, -50) .14 ( .06, .33) .92 (.385)
-286 -332, -239) -240 -281, -229) .05 ( .02, .12) 1.00 (.385)
-62 -85, -39) -55 -71, -36) .31 ( .14, .71) .84 (.385)
-260 -317, -203) -236 -313, -171) .02 ( .01, .04) 1.00 (.385)
-106 -128, -84) -94 -114, -81) .15 ( .07, .35) 1.00 (.385)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - UNPAIRED COMPARISONS
DATA SETS NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M»*3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
( So**2/Sp**2 )
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(F(Co) - F(Cp)) MAX
(FRACTION)
1. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION,
EVENT-BY-EVENT (A-l)
4256
97.6
326.8
-229.2 (-246.7,-211.6)
.05 ( .04, .05)
-.29 (.029)
Gi
I
2. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
ALL STATIONS (PAIRED
IN TIME AND LOCATION)
(B-3)
7247
72.5
244.2
-171.7 (-182.8,-160.5)
.05 ( .05, .05)
-.23 (.023)
3. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
BY STATION (B-l)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
4. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION, ALL
STATIONS (B-4)
A. MIND SPEED
< 2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5.0
> 5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E & F
1521
1113
1526
1198
969
918
3310
3433
504
661
1299
4129
1158
85.4
77.2
64.2
83.7
44.1
74.9
62.0
75.7
120.2
87.7
84.6
70.5
57.5
117.6
215.7
386.5
211.6
307.6
227.3
319.1
193.3
99.5
330.1
316.6
263.6
44.8
-32.1
-138.6
-322.3
-127.8
-263.5
-152.4
-257.0
-117.6
20.6
-242.4
-232.0
-193.1
12.7
( -44.7, -19
(-162. 3, -114
(-354.0, -290
(-146.0, -109
(-308.1, -218
(-177. 8, -127
(-277. 5, -236
(-129. 5, -105
( 1.5, 39
(-291. 6, -193
(-259. 7, -204
(-208.0, -178
( 2.0, 23
.6)
.8)
.6)
.7)
.9)
.1)
.5)
.6)
.8)
.3)
.2)
.1)
.5)
.22 (
.08 (
.03 (
.14 (
.00 (
.09 (
.03 (
.09 (
.64 (
.04 (
.07 (
.04 (
.24 (
.19,
.07,
.03,
.13,
.00,
.08,
.03,
.08,
.54,
.03,
.06,
.04,
.21,
.24)
.09)
.03)
.16)
.01)
.11)
.03)
.09)
.77)
.04)
.08)
.04)
.27)
-.35
.20
.35
.23
-.45
.24
.29
-.27
-.30
.24
.29
.25
-.77
(.049)
(.058)
( .049)
Jt.056)
(.062)
(.063)
(.033)
(.033)
(.086)
(.075)
( .053)
(.030)
(.057)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - PAIRED COMPARISONS
BIAS
NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
1. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION,
EVENT-BY-EVENT (A-l)
4256 -229.2 (-258.7,-199.7)
.50
575( 563, 587)
619
320.6
.08 ( .05, .11)
Z. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
ALL STATIONS (PAIRED
IN TIME AND LOCATION)
(B-3)
7247 -171.7 (-189.7,-153.6)
.51
487( 479, 495)
517
259.4
-.03 (-.06,-.01)
ro
3. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
BY STATI.ON (B-l)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
4. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION, ALL
STATIONS (B-4)
A. MIND SPEED
< 2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5.0
> 5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS 0
CLASS E & F
1521
1113
1528
1198
969
918
3310
3433
504
661
1299
4129
1158
-32.1
-138.6
-322.3
-127.8
-263.5
-152.4
-257.0
-117.6
20.6
-242.4
-232.0
-193.1
12.7
-54.5, -9.8)
-170. 5, -106. 6)
-377. 3, -267. 3)
-154. 4, -101. 2)
-330. 7, -196. 3)
-187. 5, -117. 4)
(-286. 8, -227. 2)
(-138.8, -96.3)
( -10.1, 51.3)
(-303. 3, -181. 6)
(-267. 7, -196. 3)
(-216. 5, -169. 6)
( .0, 25.4)
.64
.51
.42
.42
.60
.45
.47
.53
.61
.48
.40
.45
.85
255( 246,
41K 394,
631 < 610,
313( 301,
709( 679,
397( 379,
606( 592,
353( 345,
218( 206,
640( 607,
515( 496,
495( 485,
195( 187,
264)
429)
655)
326)
742)
416)
621)
361)
233)
677)
536)
506)
203)
257
433
709
333
756
425
658
372
219
684
565
531
195
157.5
231.2
393.4
209.4
324.2
236.4
334.0
202.6
155.7
334.9
319.9
273.7
97.6
-.07
-.06
.00
.07
-.03
-.05
-.05
.04
.01
.03
-.04
-.07
-.11
-.12,-
-.12,
-.05,
.01,
-.09,
-.11,
(-.08,-
( .00,
(-.08,
(-.05,
(-.10,
(-.10,-
(-.17,-
.02)
.00)
.05)
.13)
.04)
.02)
.02)
.07)
.10)
.10)
.01)
.04)
.05)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - UNPAIRED COMPARISONS
DATA SETS NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(Co - Cp)
( UG/M**3 )
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
( So«*2/Sp**2 )
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(F(Co) - F(Cp)) MAX
(FRACTION)
1. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION,
EVENT-BY-EVENT (A-l)
4782
111.0
289.5
-178.4 (-194.2,-162.7)
.06 ( .05, .06)
-.31 (.028)
2. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
ALL STATIONS (PAIRED
IN TIME AND LOCATION)
(B-3)
8174
80.1
215.7
-135.6 (-145.5,-125.7)
.06 ( .06, .06)
-.25 (.021)
3, ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
BY STATION (B-l)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
4. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION, ALL
STATIONS (B-4)
A. MIND SPEED
< 2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5.0
> 5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E 4 F
1659
1466
1645
1497
801
1106
3125
4560
489
644
1565
4686
1279
91.7
85.3
59.8
91.7
48.7
93.2
65.8
86.3
113.7
96.1
88.3
81.6
56.7
89.8
148.3
371.9
188.6
330.9
217.8
316.2
156.7
130.7
297.0
301.6
222.9
45.7
2.0
-62.9
-312.1
-96.9
-282.2
-124.7
-250.4
-70.3
-17.0
-200.9
-213.3
-141.4
11.1
( -8.7,
( -81.2,
(-341.7,
(-113.0,
(-334.1,
(-146.8,
(-272.4,
( -79.1,
( -37.3,
(-248.1,
(-241.0,
(-153.8,
( -1.1,
12.6)
-44.7)
-282.5)
-80.9)
-230.2)
-102.6)
-228.4)
-61.5)
3.3)
-153.7)
-185.5)
-129.0)
23.2)
.40 (
.13 (
.02 (
.16 (
.01 (
.09 (
.03 (
.15 (
.40 (
.05 (
.05 (
.07 (
.09 (
.36,
.12,
.02,
.15,
.01,
.08,
.03,
.15,
.34,
.04,
.05,
.06,
.08,
.44)
.15)
.02)
.18)
.01)
.10)
.03)
.16)
.48)
.06)
.06)
.07)
.10)
-.40
-.43
.37
.17
.28
-.24
.27
-.30
-.21
.21
.25
.20
-.78
(.047)
(.050)
(.047)
(.050)
( .068)
(.058)
(.034)
(.028)
(.087)
(.076)
( .049)
(.028)
(.054)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
502 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - PAIRED COMPARISONS
BIAS
NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
( UG/M**3 )
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/MX*3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
1. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION,
EVENT-BY-EVENT (A-l)
4782 -178.4 (-202.6,-154.3)
.52
545( 535, 557)
574
283.3
.08 ( .05, .11)
-£»
2. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
ALL STATIONS (PAIRED
IN TIME AND LOCATION)
(B-3)
8174 -80.1 (-108.5, -51.8)
.54
609( 599, 618)
487
241.1
-.08 (-.10,-.06)
3. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
BY STATION (B-l)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
4. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION, ALL
STATIONS (B-4)
A. MIND SPEED
< 2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5.0
> 5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E & F
1659
1466
1645
1497
801
1106
3125
4560
489
644
1565
4686
1279
2.0
-62.9
-312.1
-96.9
-282.2
-124.7
-250.4
-70.3
-17.0
-200.9
-213.3
-141.4
11.1
-15.
-88.
-357.
-122.
-351.
-155.
(-280.
( -87.
( -46.
(-258.
(-246.
(-161.
( -3.
7, 19.6)
6, -37.3)
3, -266. 9)
9, -71.0)
7, -212. 7)
5, -93.9)
3, -220. 5)
7, -53.0)
8, 12.8)
8, -143.1)
9, -179. 6)
0.-121.8)
4, 25.5)
.68
.64
.39
.51
.48
.52
.48
.58
.56
.51
.44
.49
.86
229( 222,
360( 347,
622( 601,
329( 317,
753( 718,
367( 352,
635( 619,
309( 303,
226( 212,
62K 589,
568( 549,
444( 436,
231( 223,
238)
373)
644)
341)
792)
383)
651)
315)
241)
657)
589)
454)
241)
229
365
695
342
804
387
682
317
226
652
606
466
232
144.4
188.8
382.5
208.7
345.8
213.2
334.9
185.3
161.7
327.4
312.9
244.0
99.3
-.08
-.04
-.11
-.12
-.05
.07
-.08
-.06
.03
-.08
-.07
-.11
-.16
-.13, -.03)
-.09, .01)
-.16, -.07)
-.17, -.07)
-.12, .02)
.02, .13)
(-.11, -.04)
(-.09, -.03)
(-.06, .12)
(-.16, -.01)
(-.12, -.02)
(-.14, -.08)
(-.21, -.11)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - UNPAIRED COMPARISONS
DATA SETS NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M**3)
DIFFERENCE
OF AVERAGES
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
VARIANCE
COMPARISON
( so**2/sp**2 )
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
COMPARISON
(F(Co) - F(Cp)) MAX
( FRACTION )
1.
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION,
EVENT-BY-EVENT (A-l)
1552
78.9
270.9
-192.0 (-212.3,-171.6)
.05 ( .05, .05)
.32 (.0*9)
2. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
ALL STATIONS (PAIRED
IN TIME AND LOCATION)
(B-3)
2902
57.8
201.1
-143.3 (-155.3,-131.3)
.05 ( .05, .06)
.29 (.036)
3. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
BY STATION (B-l)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
ft. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION, ALL
STATIONS (8-4)
A. MIND SPEED
< 2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5.0
> 5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E & F
592
472
607
485
363
383
1397
1313
192
236
544
1699
423
71.1
58.2
52.1
65.9
35.4
56.9
49.0
61.7
95.0
66.3
69.3
55.7
46.6
99.8
168.8
322.3
170.1
271.1
178.4
249.4
166.2
88.8
238.9
258.7
212.9
58.6
-28.7
-110.5
-270.2
-104.3
-235.7
-121.5
-200.3
-104.5
6.2
-172.6
-189.3
-157.2
-12.1
( -43.0, -14.
(-132.3, -83.
(-306. 8, -233.
(-123.3, -85.
(-283. 9, -187.
(-145.9, -97.
(-220.1, -180.
(-119.7, -89.
( -19.0, 31.
(-217. 9, -127.
(-219.0, -159.
(-173. 2, -141.
( -29.1, 5.
4)
7)
6)
3)
5)
1)
5)
3)
4)
3)
7)
1)
0)
.25 (
.12
.03
.17
.01
.12
.04 (
.07 (
.57 (
.06 (
.07 (
.05 (
.12 (
.21,
.10,
.02,
.14,
.00,
.09,
.03,
.07,
.43,
.05,
.06,
.04,
.10,
.29)
.14)
.03)
.20)
.01)
.14)
.04)
.08)
.76)
.08)
.09)
.05)
.15)
-.26
.28
.44
.30
.36
.33
.38
.24
-.27
.37
.35
.32
-.60
(.079)
(.089)
(.078)
(.087)
X.101)
( .098)
(.051)
(.053)
(.139)
(.125)
( .082)
(.047)
(.094)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - PAIRED COMPARISONS
BIAS
NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SO)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
( UG/M**3 )
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
1. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION*
EVENT-BY-EVENT U-l)
1552 -192.0 (-220.8,-163.2)
.42
398( 385, 413)
442
254.4
.12 ( .07, .17)
3. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
ALL STATIONS (PAIRED
IN TIME AND LOCATION)
(B-3)
2902 -143.3 (-161.1,-125.5)
.41
330( 322, 339)
360
200.9
.00 (-.04, .04)
3. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
BY STATION (D-l)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
4. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION, ALL
STATIONS (B-4)
A. MIND SPEED
< 2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5.0
> 5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E & F
592
472
607
485
363
383
1397
1313
192
236
544
1699
423
-28.7
-110.5
-270.2
-104.3
-235.7
-121.5
-200.3
-104.5
6.2
-172.6
-189.3
-157.2
-12.1
( -48.3
(-139.3
(-322.7
(-127.7
(-305.7
(-153.4
(-226.7
(-126.4
( -22.1
(-222.7
(-224.9
(-180.5
( -32.8
, -9.1)
, -81.8)
,-217.7)
, -80.9)
,-165.7)
, -89.6)
,-174.0)
, -82.5)
, 34.5)
,-122.5)
,-153.8)
,-133.8)
, 8.7)
.58
.40
.34
.33
.48
.35
.35
.46
.57
.35
.33
.37
.72
181(
242(
456 (
193(
469(
240(
377(
277(
171(
354 (
347(
3401
190(
172,
228,
432,
137,
437,
224,
364,
267,
156,
325,
328,
329,
178,
192)
259)
484)
212)
506)
258)
392)
288)
191)
389)
370)
352)
204)
184
266
530
224
524
268
427
296
171
393
395
375
190
121.4
166.9
316.8
152.2
277.7
170.8
245.6
165.5
117.8
222.6
242.2
210.4
97.7
-.06 (-.14,
-.02 (-.11,
.05 (-.03,
.19 ( .10,
-.05 (-.15,
.04 (-.06,
.00 (-.06,
.06 ( .00,
.07 (-.07,
.00 (-.13,
.05 (-.03,
-.03 (-.08,
-.21 (-.30,
.02)
.07)
.13)
.27)
.06)
.14)
.05)
.11)
.21)
.13)
.14)
.02)
-.11)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - UNPAIRED COMPARISONS,
DATA SETS NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E & F
655
581
650
594
321
445
1315
1726
205
251
604
1870
521
75.2
69.8
48.8
73.8
37.3
73.9
50.0
72.7
92.9
75.5
69.8
67.1
45.5
74.3
124.4
312.0
156.5
274.8
178.5
243.9
139.2
113.8
242.0
231.5
190.0
54.7
.9
-54.5
-263.2
-82.7
-237.6
-104.6
-193.9
-66.5
-20.9
-166.5
-161.8
-122.9
-9.2
( -10.7
( -73.3
(-296.4
(-100.4
(-289.5
(-127.9
(-215.1
( -77.9
( -44.4
(-219.2
(-188.2
(-137.1
( -22.9
, 12.6)
, -35.8)
,-229.9)
, -65.0)
,-185.7)
, -81.2)
,-172.7)
, -55.1)
, 2.6)
,-113.9)
,-135.4)
,-108.6)
, 4.5)
.54 (
.17 (
.02 (
.21 (
.01 (
.10 (
.03 (
.14 (
.40 (
.05 (
.08 (
.08 (
.12 (
.46,
.14,
.02,
.17,
.01,
.09,
.03,
.13,
.30,
.04,
.07,
.07,
.10,
.63)
.20)
.02)
.24)
.02)
.12)
.04)
.16)
.53)
.06)
.09)
.08)
.14)
-.31
-.33
.46
.23
.39
.27
.37
-.24
-.19
.29
.31
.25
-.60
.075)
.080)
.075)
.079)
.107)
.091)
(.053)
(.046)
(.134)
(.121)
(.078)
(.044)
(.084)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - PAIRED COMPARISONS
BIAS
NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SO)
(UG/I1**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
1. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION,
EVENT-BY-EVENT (A-l)
1747 -153.5 (-176.*,-130.6)
.44
371( 359, 384)
402
221.9
.16 ( .11, .20)
2. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
ALL STATIONS (PAIRED
IN TIME AND LOCATION)
(B-3)
3246 -115.2 (-129.8,-100.6)
.46
317( 310, 325)
337
186.1
-.05 (-.08,-.01)
00
3. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
BY STATION (B-l)
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 5
STATION 6
4. BY METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITION, ALL
STATIONS (B-4)
A. MIND SPEED
< 2.5 M/SEC
2.5 TO 5.0
> 5.0 M/SEC
B. STABILITY GROUP
CLASS A & B
CLASS C
CLASS D
CLASS E & F
655
581
650
594
321
445
1315
1726
205
251
604
1870
521
.9
-54.5
-263.2
-82.7
-237.6
-104.6
-193.9
-66.5
-20.9
-166.5
-161.8
-122.9
-9.2
-15.6,
-76.2,
-304.9,
-106.3,
-301.1,
-130.1,
(-220.2,
( -82.7,
( -49.9,
(-232.5,
(-189.9,
(-142.2,
( -26.8,
17.4)
-32.9)
-221.4)
-59.1)
-174.0)
-79.0)
-167.6)
-50.3)
8.2)
-100.5)
-133.6)
-103.5)
8.4)
.62
.56
.31
.43
.36
.41
.36
.53
.50
.42
.36
.42
.73
158( 149,
229( 216,
437( 415,
224( 212,
4701 437,
236( 221,
393( 379,
2451 237,
166( 151,
427( 393,
328( 311,
321( 311,
17K 161,
167)
243)
463)
238)
510)
253)
409)
254)
184)
469)
348)
332)
182)
157
235
510
239
526
258
438
254
166
458
366
344
171
110.2
143.0
306.9
155.7
274.7
154.7
241.7
151.5
121.5
242.9
218.7
193.6
94.1
-.08 (-.16,
.02 (-.07,
-.09 (-.17,
-.06 (-.14,
.04 (-.07,
.20 ( .11,
-.01 (-.07,
-.04 (-.09,
.07 (-.07,
-.04 (-.17,
.03 (-.05,
-.10 (-.14,
-.26 (-.34,
.00)
.10)
-.02)
.03)
.15)
.29)
.04)
.01)
.21)
.08)
.11)
-.05)
-.18)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - UNPAIRED COMPARISONS
DATA SETS NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: ppsp
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - PAIRED COMPARISONS
BIAS
NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SO)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
1. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION,
EVENT-BY-EVENT (A-l)
339 -94.4 (-110.7, -78.1)
.29
133( 124, 144)
163
106.9
.32 ( .22, .41)
J
ro
o
2. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
ALL STATIONS (PAIRED
IN TIME AND LOCATION)
(B-3)
1235 -39.0 ( -45.0, -33.0)
.46
92( 88, 95)
100
53.4
.26 ( .20, .31)
3. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
BY STATION (B-l)
STATION
STATION
STATION
STATION
STATION
STATION
1
Z
3
4
5
6
221
205
220
197
228
164
-5.9
-29.2
-89.1
-29.9
-42.5
-34.6
( -13.8,
( -38.6,
(-109.2,
( -39.1,
( -57.9,
( -44.1,
2.0)
-19.7)
-69.0)
-20.8)
-27.1)
-25.1)
.57
.42
.35
.38
.65
.37
50(
58(
137(
52(
115(
65(
45,
53,
125,
47,
105,
59,
55)
64)
151)
58)
127)
73)
50
65
163
60
122
73
33.0
41.5
99.6
38.2
57.6
46.1
.21 (
.25 (
.38 (
.63 (
.14 (
.23 (
.08,
.12,
.26,
.53,
.01,
.08,
.33)
.37)
.49)
.71)
.26)
.37)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 1) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - UNPAIRED COMPARISONS
DATA SETS NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
-------
TABLE B. (PART 2) COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
S02 CONCENTRATION VALUES EVENT-BY-EVENT (PAIRED IN TIME)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES - PAIRED COMPARISONS
BIAS
NUMBER
OF
EVENTS
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
1. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION,
EVENT-BY-EVENT (A-l)
361 -77.5 ( -89.6, -65.3)
.28
112( 105, 121)
136
90.3
.28 ( .18, .37)
I
ro
ro
2. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
ALL STATIONS (PAIRED
IN TIME AND LOCATION)
(B-3)
1274 -33.4 ( -39.1, -27.7)
.48
84( 81, 87)
90
51.3
.15 ( .10, .20)
3. ALL CONCENTRATIONS,
BY STATION (B-l)
STATION
STATION
STATION
STATION
STATION
STATION
1
2
3
4
5
6
249
252
219
224
153
177
3.3
-11.7
-93.0
-25.5
-58.9
-29.7
( -2.3,
( -19.7,
(-109.6,
( -33.8,
( -79.4,
( -37.7,
8.8)
-3.8)
-76.4)
-17.2)
-38.5)
-21.7)
.66
.59
.30
.42
.41
.41
42( 38,
52( 48,
118( 103,
57( 52,
118( 107,
56( 51,
46)
57)
130)
63)
134)
63)
42
53
150
62
132
64
28.6
34.6
102.3
41.4
68.8
41.2
.22
.28
.13
.32
.15
.47
( .10,
( .16,
( .00,
( .19,
(-.01,
( .35,
.33)
.39)
.26)
.43)
.30)
.58)
-------
TABLE C
COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL-- PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SO)
( UG/M**3 )
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
742.4
3344.2
-2601.8 ( -4150, -1054)
.00
1475 ( 921,3617)
2930
2601.8
-.50 (-.93, .52)
-------
TABLE C
COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
( UG/M»*3 )
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3>
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SO)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
( UG/M**3 )
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
858.0
4385.8
-3527.8 ( -5223, -1832)
.00
1616 (1009,3963)
3824
3527.8
.29 (-.68, .89)
ro
COMPARISON OF SECOND MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND SECOND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(3D)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
701.3
3807.3
-3106.0 ( -4951, -1258)
.00
1761 (1099,4320)
3497
3106.0
-.70 (-.96, .25)
-------
TABLE C
COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SO)
( UG/M**3 )
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
543.3
7.SZ1.1
-1277.8 ( -2367, -189)
.00
1038 ( 648,2545)
1591
1277.8
.08 (-.78, .84)
I
ro
01
COMPARISON OF SECOND MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND SECOMj MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
( UG/M**3 )
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
( UG/M*»3 )
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
476.8
1528.9
-1052.2 ( -1834, -270)
.00
745 ( 465,1828)
1253
1052.2
.01 (-.81, .81)
-------
TABIE C
COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL; PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M**3>
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
( UG/M**3 )
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SO)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
( UG/M**3 )
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
525.6
-1624.0 ( -2710, -539)
.00
1034 ( 646,2537)
1879
1624.0
-.42 (-.92, .60)
I
ro
01
COMPARISON OF SECOND MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND SECOND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
. (UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
( UG/M**3 )
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
471.5
1750.1
-1278.6 ( -2158, -399)
.00
838 ( 523,2055)
1490
1278.6
-.54 (-.94, .49)
-------
TABLE C
COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
151.8
-312.4 ( -577, -47)
.00
252 ( 158, 619)
388
312.4
-.26 ( -.89, .70)
ro
COMPARISON OF SECOND MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND SECOND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
( UG/M**3 )
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
•
124.8
382.1
-257.3 ( -434, -81)
.00
168 ( 105, 412)
299
257.3
-.27 ( -.89, .69)
-------
TABLE C
COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
(UG/M**3)
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(U> > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
( UG/M**3 )
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
( UG/M**3 )
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
132.8
418.4
-285.6 ( -500, -71)
.00
205 ( 128, 502)
341
285.6
-.52 ( -.94, .50)
I
ro
00
COMPARISON OF SECOND MAXIMUM OBSERVED AND SECOND MAXIMUM
PREDICTED CONCENTRATION VALUES, PAIRED BY STATION (A - 2)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL: PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
BIAS
AVERAGE
OBSERVED
VALUE (Co)
(UG/M**3)
AVERAGE
PREDICTED
VALUE (Cp)
( UG/M**3 )
AVERAGE
DIFFERENCE
(Co - Cp)
( UG/M**3 )
FRACTION
OF POSITIVE
RESIDUALS
(Co > Cp)
CHARACTERISTIC DISCREPANCIES
NOISE
(SD)
(UG/M**3)
ROOT MEAN
SQUARE
ERROR
IUG/M**3)
AVERAGE
ABSOLUTE
DIFFERENCE
(UG/M**3)
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT
119.9
346.2
-226.3 ( -437, -16)
.00
200 ( 125, 492)
291
226.3
-.68 ( -.96, .30)
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL;PPSP
•AVERAGING TIME: 1 HOUR
S02 CONCENTRATIONS (UG/M**3)
(STATION,DAY,HOUR)
OBSERVED
PREDICTED
DIFFERENCE
MAX Co AND MAX Cp
MAX Co
AND PREDICTED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
AND LOCATION AS MAX Co
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME EVENT AS MAX Co (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Co (ANY EVENT)
MAX Cp AND OBSERVED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
AND LOCATION AS MAX Cp
MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
SAME EVENT AS MAX Cp (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Cp (ANY EVENT)
1672.7 ( 3, 24,13) 5913.0 ( 5,349, 9)
1672.7 ( 3, 24,13) 356.0 ( 3, 24,13)
1672.7 ( 3, 24,13)
356.0 ( 3, 24,13)
1672.7 ( 3, 24,13) 5200.0 ( 3,120,16)
1.6 ( 5,349, 9) 5913.0 ( 5,349, 9)
1.6 ( 5,349, 9) 5913.0 ( 5,349, 9)
457.0 ( 5,356,14) 5913.0 ( 5,349, 9)
-4240.3
1316.7
1316.7
-3527.3
-5911.4
-5911.4
-5456.0
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL:PPSP
AVERAGING TIMt: 1 HOUR
S02 CONCENTRATIONS
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL:PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
S02 CONCENTRATIONS (UG/M**3)
(STATION,DAY,TIME PERIOD)
OBSERVED
PREDICTED
MAX Co AND MAX Cp
MAX Co AND PREDICTED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
ANO LOCATION AS MAX Co
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME EVENT AS MAX Co (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Co (ANY EVENT)
MAX Cp AND OBSERVED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
AND LOCATION AS MAX Cp
CO MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
—J- SAME EVENT AS MAX Cp (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Cp (ANY EVENT)
794.0 ( 3, 24, 5) 3466.3 ( 3,328, 5)
794.0 ( 3, 24, 5) 242.0 ( 3, 34, 5)
794.0 ( 3, 24, 5) 242.0 ( 3, 24, 5)
794.0 ( 3, 24, 5) 3<-..,o.3 ( 3,328, 5)
19.3 ( 3,328, 5) 3466.3 ( 3,328, 5)
20.0 ( 5,328, 5) 3466.3 ( 3,328, 5)
794.0 ( 3, 24, 5) 3466.3 ( 3,328, 5)
DIFFERENCE
-2672.3
552.0
552.0
-2672.3
-3447.0
-3446.3
-2672.3
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL:PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 3 HOURS
S02 CONCENTRATIONS (UG/M**3)
(STATION,DAY,TIME PERIOD)
OBSERVED
PREDICTED
MAX Co AND MAX Cp
MAX Co AND PREDICTED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
AND LOCATION AS MAX Co
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME EVENT AS MAX Co (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Co (ANY EVENT)
MAX Cp AND OBSERVED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
AND LOCATION AS MAX Cp
ff>
^ MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
I\J SAME EVENT AS MAX Cp (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Cp (ANY EVENT)
623.7 ( 4,363, 5) 3861.3 ( 3,177, 71
623.7 ( 4,362, 5) 330.0 ( 4,362, 5)
623.7 ( 4,362, 5) 599.7 ( 3,362, 5)
623.7 ( 4,362, 5) 1442.0 ( 4,177, 7)
.0 ( 3,177, 7) 3861.3 ( 3,177, 7)
.3 ( 6,177, 7) 3861.3 ( 3,177, 7)
542.0 ( 3,279, 4) 3861.3 ( 3,177, 7)
DIFFERENCE
-3237.7
293.7
24.0
-818.3
-3861.3
-3861.0
-3319.3
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AHD SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1975)
MODEL:PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
S02 CONCENTRATIONS (UG/M**3)
(STATION,DAY)
MAX Co AND MAX Cp
MAX Co AND PREDICTED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
AND LOCATION AS MAX Co
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME EVENT AS MAX Co (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Co (ANY EVENT)
MAX Cp AND OBSERVED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
AND LOCATION AS MAX Cp
O
00 MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
00 SAME EVENT AS MAX Cp (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Cp (ANY EVENT)
OBSERVED
209
209
209
209
139
139
209
.5 (
.5 (
.5 (
.5 (
.6 (
.6 (
.5 (
3,
3,
3,
3,
3,
3,
3,
24)
24)
24)
24)
23)
23)
24)
776
68
68
776
776
PREDICTED
.5 (
.8 (
.6 (
.5 (
.5 (
776.5 (
776
.5 (
3,
3.
3,
3,
3,
3,
3,
23)
24)
24)
23)
23)
23)
23)
DIFFERENCE
-567.
140.
140.
-567.
-636.
-636.
-567.
0
7
7
0
8
8
0
-------
TABLE D. COMPARISONS OF HIGHEST OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CONCENTRATION
VALUES FOR DIFFERENT TIME AND SPACE PAIRINGS (A - 3)
CLIFTY CREEK (1976)
MODEL:PPSP
AVERAGING TIME: 24 HOURS
S02 CONCENTRATIONS (UG/M**3)
(STATION,DAY)
MAX Co AND MAX Cp
MAX Co AND PREDICTED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
AND LOCATION AS MAX Co
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME EVENT AS MAX Co (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Co AND HIGHEST PREDICTED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Co (ANY EVENT)
MAX Cp AND OBSERVED VALUE FOR SAME EVENT
AND LOCATION AS MAX Cp
MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
SAME EVENT AS MAX Cp (ANY LOCATION)
MAX Cp AND HIGHEST OBSERVED VALUE FOR
SAME LOCATION AS MAX Cp (ANY EVENT)
OBSERVED
181.
181.
181.
181.
28.
103.
132.
2 (
2 (
2 (
2 (
8 (
0 (
7 (
4,
4,
4,
4,
3,
2,
3,
330)
330)
330)
330)
319)
319)
167)
674
121
233
339
674
674
PREDICTED
.5 (
.7 (
.8 (
.5 (
.5 (
.5 (
674.5 (
3
4
3
4
3
3
3
.319)
,330)
,330)
,298)
,319)
,319)
,319)
DIFFERENCE
-493.3
59
-52
-158
-645
-571
-541
.5
.6
.3
.7
.5
.8
------- |