WORKING PAPER NO.
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
TENTATIVE ESTIMATES OF WILLAMETTE BASIN ECONOMIC GROWTH
TO 1980 and 2010
DATE: June, 1961
Prepared by
Reviewed by
Approved by
DISTRIBUTION
Project Staff
Cooperating Agencies
General
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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This working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
i
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
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June, 1961
TENTATIVE ESTIMATES OP WILLAMETTE BASIN ECONOMIC GROWTH
TO 1980 AND 2010*
The purpose of this report is to provide some general guides to potential
economic growth in the Willamette Basin which::will be'of'assistance to
the Engineering Services Group during their data gathering period. These
estimates are for internal use only and are intended to indicate a
reasonable range of future development. Because of the limited nature
of these estimates, industrial activities have been grouped into the
broad categories shown below. The percent of the Willamette Basin labor
force in each category is also shown. Data are for 1950; 1960 census
data are not yet available, but it is felt that the 1950 proportions are
still broadly valid.
WILLAMETTE BASIN EMPLOYED LABOR FORCE
(Percentage Distribution as of April 1950)
Agriculture 9.17.
Forestry, Fishing, Mining 0.5%
Manufacturing 21.2%
Lumber, plywood, wood prod., furn 10.1
Pulp, paper 1.1
Food and kindred products 2.4
All other manufacturing 7.6
Services (incl. construction) 69.2%
100.0%
In addition, population estimates based on demographic procedures are
also presented.
For analysis, the Willamette Basin has been divided into three sub-areas:
Upper Basin (Lane County); Middle Basin (Benton, Linn, Marion, Polk and
Yamhill Counties); and Lower Basin (Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington
Counties).
Agriculture
The estimates for this category (for the purposes of this memorandum)
are based on the preliminary results of the Conservation Needs Inventory,
examination of historical trends, estimates of the Bureau of Reclamation
and the Bureau of Municipal Research study on Lane County Agriculture.
Although practically no change in total cropland acreage is foreseen by
1980, a decrease in farm workers and an increase in total farm output is
estimated. Some increase in cropland is anticipated in both the upper
^Prepared by: Economic Studies Group, Water Supply and Pollution Control
Program, Pacific Northwest, U. S. Public Health Service.
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and middle basin areas which will offset losses in the lower basin area.
For the upper basin area, it has been estimated that there will be a
20 percent decrease in farm workers and a 40 percent increase in farm
production. The change in workers and farm production is expected to
be of the same order of magnitude in the middle basin area as in the
upper basin. The lower basin, however, will probably lose even more
workers and will have a smaller increase in production because of the
probable net loss of acreage.
Between 1980 and 2010, it is likely that cropland will decrease somewhat
throughout the basin and the changes in employment and production will
be of a lesser magnitude than for the 1960-1980 period.
Irrigated acreage in the basin might increase several-fold during the
study period from the approximately 160,000 irrigated acres in the
Willamette Valley in 1959.
Lumber, Plywood, and Allied Manufacturing
The estimates for this category and for the category of Pulp and Paper
Manufacturing which follows have been adapted mainly from various esti-
mates and studies of the U. S. Forest Service and the recent study
sponsored by Resources For the Future.— The estimates presented in
this memorandum are not too dissimilar (when the difference in area is
considered) from the 1958 report of the Corps of Engineers, "Water
Resource Development, Columbia River Basin".
Based on these various estimates, it appears reasonable to expect lumber
production to increase at least 10 percent by 1980, with a further similar
increase by 2010. For plywood, veneer, and composition board production,
the increase is expected to be somewhat more than double that of lumber.
Although lumber production increases are likely to occur mainly in the
upper basin during the periods to 1980, later production increases will
reflect the maturing of timber stands in the middle and lower basins.
Plywood, veneer, and board production increases are most likely to occur
in the upper basin area.
^/"Western Forest Industry, An Economic Outlook," by John A. Guthrie and
George R. Armstrong.
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Pulp and Paper Manufacturing
These estimates are based on a review of the same materials described in
the previous section. It is considered reasonable to expect additional
pulp mill capacity of at least several hundred tons per day in the upper
basin area by 1980. A comparable increase in capacity is likely in the
middle basin by 2010. The increase in capacity in each basin might
result from expansion of existing pulp mills or construction of new
facilities (or both).
Food and Kindred Manufacturing
This industry is expected to increase at a rate somewhat greater than
would be explained by population growth alone. This additional growth
will be the result of changes in crop types and farming methods which
are likely with the increase in irrigated acreage. By 1980 a growth of
from 30 to 50 percent appears reasonable. By 2010 this industry could
be double (or more) its present size'.
Other' Manufacturing
On the basis of population projections by the U. S. Census Bureau and of
trends in the labor force relative to total population and manufacturing
relative to the total labor force, it is tentatively estimated that total
manufacturing employment in the Willamette Basin in 1980 will be approxi-
mately double what it was in 1950. The increase from 1980 to 2010 is
expected to be at a somewhat slower rate, due to a decrease in the pro-
jected rate of population growth and to an anticipated decline in manu-
facturing employment as a percent of total employment. The latter assump-
tion is predicated upon the belief that automation will be increasingly
applied to manufacturing activities but that service-type industries are
less amenable to automation. It is estimated that total manufacturing
employment in the Willamette Basin in 2010 will be about three times the
number in 1950.
Assuming the growth rates projected in the preceding paragraphs for lumber
and wood products, pulp and paper, and food and kindred projects, employ-
ment in these industries will represent a declining portion of total
manufacturing employment in the Willamette Basin. While employment in
these industries represented about two-thirds of total manufacturing in
the Basin in 1950, it is expected that they will represent only about
one-third by 2010. Among the other manufacturing industries, which will
constitute a growing proportion of total manufacturing employment, no
great growth is foreseen in any single industrial category. Rather, a
broad diversification of the manufacturing economy is anticipated.
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The Population Outlook
Projections of national and state population by the U. S. Census Bureau
and the Kerr Committee on National Water Resources were used as guides
in the preparation of this estimate. These projections will be subject
to further analysis, but, in terms of these projections, and considering
historic trends in the Willamette Basin's share of total State population
tentative estimates of Basin population are: 1980, 2,600,000; and
2010, 3,000,000.
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ADDENDUM NO. 1
December 7, 1961
MID-WILLAMETTE VALLEY POPULATION, APRIL 1, 1960. DISTRIBUTED BY TRIBUTARY BASIN
The Mid-Willamette Valley is defined to include ail of Linn, Marion, Polk and
Yatnhill Counties, and all of Benton County except the Alsea Census County Division,
which is west of the Willamette Basin divide.
Only the population within these counties is included in the following figures.
To obtain the total population in those tributary basins that extend outside the Mid-
Willamette Valley (Tualatin, Pudding, Muddy Creek and Long Tom), the population in
contiguous portions of adjacent counties would have to be included.
The Salem Urban Area, consisting of the Four Corners, Hayesville, Keizer, Salem
City, and Salem Heights Census County Divisions in Marion County, and the portion of
Salem City in Polk County, is not included in any tributary basin, but is shown
separately in the table below.
All areas not in one of the 13 tributary basins shown below have been included
in "Willamette Main Stem".
Tributary Basin
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Tualatin '.
Yamhill
Pudding
North Santiam
South Santiam
Santiam below junc-
tion of N.& S. Forks ..
^,
o
0
• B
O
B
"O >»
B 1-1 OJ
1-1 S r^
0) <->
co B co
00 -r< >
to nearest hundred)
—
3300
_
- •
600
22700
.
-
600
26000
fs
>.>-< 0)
u a> 4J
CO P 4-1
4J-H (U
3 4J B
J3 6 3
1^ <6r*
H vw i-i
•rl jj^
M-l 1
o "-a t*,
B i^ o>
co i1^ S3 *"!
a) co i— i
M CO B co
V
M >s
CO b
3 cO
O* -U
m 3
43
0) W
(X 4J
CO B
0 "^ B
to a» i-i
M t-i o)
0) i-l cO
&< BJO
(sq.mi.)
x
770
25300 x
89001
26300* 1820
v
24001
x
34
X
21
7. Mill Creek
8 . Rickreall
9 . Luckiamute
10 . Marys
12 . Muddy Creek
13 . Long Tom
14. Salem Urban Area
15. All other (Willamette
Main Stem)
TOTAL COUNTY
TOTAL IN MID -WILLAMETTE
BASIN
—
_
1300
8500
_
1000
27600
38400*
_
.
_
8200
1300
_
19700
58900
6400
_
—
_
72800
8500
120900
—
7900
2900
—
_
3900
8500
26500
6400
7900
4200
8500
8200
1300
1000
76700
9200 73500
32500
277200*
135
106
310
300
362
x
x
47
75
14
28
23
x
x •
x - Portion of area lies outside Mid-Willamette Valley; figures for total basin will
be shown in separate table.
* - Excludes 857 in Benton County's Alsea Census County Division.
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