WORKING PAPER NO. 5
TUALATIN RIVER AREA (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010
October 1961
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
WS&PC Program, Pacific Northwest
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7BA1AJIH RIVER AREA (OHEGGS)
PEELIKU1AEY ESTZK&T8 (3? ECOKSHIC GBOSTH. 1960-2010
OF
1.
At Purposo of
B, l^aftnitica of Area
C. Study Ported
D. Limitations ©f Aa3 lysis
II. Pge&at: £csr-gaic
A. P&pul&ti&n
B. 'i'ha Fz-s&sat Itidisscrlal Pattern
C. GsoarapMc Disfcrtbwtioa
til. EgAiasatgd, gggt?th1|j _18SO»2pip
A.
B. Ths
Prepared by: tcosscalc Studies Group
VS£i»C Pncgr^a, Pacific Hortte^ast
October 19S1
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RIVER AREA (OSSGCEQ
ESTIMATE 07 SCOKOMIC gjUEfgH. 1960-2010
I. Intreductioa
A. Purpooo of
This aaalyaia is intended to proviso a prellniuary estimate of
tha economic poteatialc aad a broad guida to tha anticipated growth of
tho subject area.
B. Pafiai tion of jAcaa
Tha Tualatin Rivor drainage basic conforms a^projtiisateiy to the
IxnsKlarles of Washington Cotmty, and for purposes of this analysie, the
county has been vised as the unit of study. In terms of area, the snail
departures of the baa in boundary from the covaty boxmdsry are roughly
offsetting. la tork0 of popuiatioia, & e^all but urba-iicsd area in couth-
vaetarn Kiultucoah County which ie part of the Tualatin basin is excluded
by uaing the Washington County bouadary. Tha Eouth of tho Tualatin Rivor
&lco lies outside fc&shifigtoa Couaty. EsKfevor, tho convenietico and accuracy
of using Available statistics &od existing forecasts s fill on a ccmaty baoio,
end tha iiapracticality of atteaptiag ostiffiat&s for such esall fringe areas,
svako use of tba county boundary a<3vio&ble.
C. Study Perioji
Tfes 50-year period 1960-2010, vrtth &s\ interlra poiat at 1930, io
bo ing uoed by this office in ite esoao&ic studies of tha C®lvrabia basis do e
, sxtd tha OSSKZ period is uosd for tfeio Tualatin Elvor erea eaalysio.
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D. Liaitaticsae of this
Thla te inteaiksd oaly &s c& Initial ectinats of the outlook £or
tbe Tualatin River *roa, bse«<3 upea broad trends in thai larger area of
t&ich It ie « part. Subsequently, in cecssction with the Coltsabi* fe&ain
•tudy, esa aaalyais will b* t&a&, ea ea loduocry-by-isaSuatry baoifi, of tbs
ane»tb potential in eucti *ub-bafil»a ea tba Tualatin. At tbat tiava, thi*
preliaiaary eetiisata for tha Tualatin eree will bo reviewad, end revieod
if ftcceoaary.
II. gregeai:- Kc ostiatiea esvd exceeded oaly by
1233 pa^eo^s j^r e^oaro eilc.
its higb ©tfsrags issaaity, th® £oct that a lex-go part ef
the couoty's p($|mleti®a ie cc^sceatrated el&ag its eastern fringe sa^as
taoct of tho csttoty ereA srotoins c pre^csatosiitly rural chfltfacter. Thio
bo 6CO3 by esf&rsting the I5fe0 {>o^ulnti©» iato £b$ £ollc&iog four parts:
population, 36,839. "Rsie t?as dofinod by tha
census to include tha cestigusuoly built-up area oxtCAdics out froa
Bosvarten, population 5,937, ie included is this portisa. Thie
equalled 40 par coat of tho etwaty total, though tha &sst& icvolvod repro*
seated lco» than S% of tbo cfnmty'o total 458,000 ectres. Tla density in
tbi« Murbcal*©d" croa vas ohovt 3 pareoas par c«ro in
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*• Other Urban population, 13,860. "Urban" population is dafined
by the cetxsua to include incorporated areee of 2500 or isore population.
Aside frcn Beavarton, included in the "urbanised" portion, there ere only
two other cities in this cle«8i Forest Grova, 5623; «ad Uillaboro, 8232.
Thie population equalled 15 per cent of the county total.
3. Sana11 incorporated places» total population 2852. Tha five
csall cosauaitiea included in thie total equalled 3 per cent of tha county
total. Tba ccssmmitios cc4 their 1960 population are: Caeton, 320; Cor-
caliua, 1145; Sherwood, 630; Tualatin, 359; end Emks, 347,
4. Rural gapulatica. 36,636. Thaeo por0oasp living on faeesa or
i outcids any orgaais&d cosmraity, offiaprised 42 par cent of the cctaity's
I
total population.
B. The Present lBdus_tr_lel.. Patfcona
Tho eeoaosy of Washtnstcsa Ceuuty differs feooi that of t\vz rest of
the state in several important respects. fca£hi>on County is part of the
Portland Katropollt
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Tho following table ehova ho* tha distribution of
cstployssat in Vaahiagtas County ccctpered, aa of April 1950, .with tho dietri-
butioo ia tha state «« a whole. The data ar« for "covered eaployseat" only
(that Is, eoployeea covered by Che atate tcoeaployueat condensation law)
end exclude »e If -employed parson*.
In addition to tha ap&cialiaatica la electrics! equlpmsnt end prof«»-
elonal-seicatific oquipasat, AS sh0va by Tablo 1, Wachingtcn County esrploy-
ttem. IB agricultural is also significantly highdr than the average for thg
/
«tate a« e «3K>lo. Uatil 1SSO ceasus esploje-sat data era published, etatie-
tice frea tha 1950 coaaus ftrs tha cost recent available. Ao of 1950, about
4600 parooiis t?3TO forking ia esriculturo, whereas Waahi>ca Cc^aty'o share
of total state agricultural esploy&s&t, oo « per capita b&eis, t^uld have
baea only about 2500.
At tfoa ti£20 of the 1559 Cesussuo of Agriculture, thsro tmre 106,000
acres of harvested cropland io tha couaty. Of thsso, 15,000 vare irrigated.
There wars about 1300 ccrrasrcial faras ia tha county.
c-
Tha ceaceatratica of populaticna ia tha esotora frijsso of tha covaty
ic a rocult of tvo ecesanic f actors i (1) tho fvsaagica of tba ores as & bed*
re«ea eatoliito for pcsrseca c^loyod in Port lead; easd (2) tita locaticn io
area of the large occillocce^o fira e5».ich provides over half o£ total
facturing Jofeis in the county.
Tho othor two principal population ccneoatrationc (Rilloboro
Forest Grev«) c^nta,ln ec^a £s&d products and ltKaber-«»od product a
for the?
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Table 1 (See Section IIB)
Covored Entployvnant in Hon-Agricultural Industries
Actual Efijployci
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6
A.
It i« expected that the growth rato In population of Washington
County (Jurist tha study period vill be eae of tha highest in the state. Its
growth rate during tha dooeds 1950-60 was nearly threa tices the et«t« Averag
and tha £orca« that caused that rapid growth are likely to continue to oper-
ate in the period fib-sad.
Projections by tha U.S. Bureau of Census £or future Oregon
population indicate csi scceloratod grotrtb during tba paric4 1960-60, due to
io-a\igratioa. During th4> period 1530-2010, tha etctfi growth rate is expocted
to dscliisa, although it vill still re&ain sboy« tha oatiotial average. Tbo
fortla^ Magropolit£a Ares including Multne^ah, Ctactierias and WashiRgtoa
Cmmtiea) i» exacted to recoiva a larger tbaaa preportioaato eharo of the
increacto in etfito jsspulatiOR. Grs^th in the isatropolitan &r&& will result
frosa its rois as tha trade aad csrvice c&a.t&i for cho regioa, froa the fact
that it is the caly diversified maauiecturi&g econc^iy in tbo
the presence in tha s&tropolitsa area of epaeialieod
feusd in other per to of tha rsgica.
alssat 1540, pcpalatien growth in rolativsly dcREely
Couaty begsa to spill ©vsr iato Kashifujtea Cotsxty. At tho
, ths eoatigusuftly boilt-cp area of greater Psartlajad extesdo fartfasr t£>
tha e&et end eouth thca it 6sca to tba «oct into sJashidgtcn County, Growth
ioto Kaohinijtoa County caa feaid baicw \shat it vould othortyiea hcve bs«a by
of eeraga diopooal, by a lack ef water utilities, csd by ralafcivoly
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less convenient access to downtown Portland. Wbsre these problems have
been eolvad, growth has bean rapid. Developments now planned will further
ovoi corns thssa handicaps, find it is expected that Wellington County will
represent an increasing proportion of total Betropollten area population.
The following tab10 shows projected population for Washington
County, and growth rates for Che county compared vith other areas.
Table 2 (Sea Section IIIA)
Projecttid Population sod Growth Rates
for Washington Couaty Coopered with Other Araas
1920-2010
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1980 2010
Kashingtoa County,
population, to nearest 26 30 39 61 92 207 500
thousand
Percentage increas®,
cotopovHid annual rate,
duritis period coding
in year efcowa
Washington County
Orogoa
U. S.
1.4 2.6 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.0
1.3 3.4 1.5 2.0 1.7
0.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4
While it ic impossible to pinpoint exactly the future location ef
this increased papulacloa in the county, it ic e&pgcted that EOSC of it will
represent a further extsasioa wostefard of tha "urbanised" dcvolopcasnc extend lag
out frora Portland. It is probcblo tliat tha growth of the rural population
ead of tbo esiill injx>q>,orated places yill bo very taoch leee then the
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8
Etliebora C3i?2 Foreot Csawa, oa tfes otfear hastd, &SQ iifcalj to
ms>sa re^kidly t&ea e&a area &urrauadia§ tfeoa, 09 tfes tsrssad
urfecslsatiea ceafcisaies. Of tha total ceuat? iscrexea of 115,000
tor the period I960- 1 $80, &fe£ot 18,000 «eul£ «ccru® to 8&ils&dK8 aa area. It
in tba procsMsg
Seoa ef tMs isaer&se® trf.ll be
deaoity ia «ha Hus^@iQ^dM esoa of 3.1
tmsroaeo ^rtJll repsaaeat ea ezspasstca
roas^a^l®, el this tha
|to csfcicipafca tfeat tbs
23,0 s lisa xoughiy
, Bail f^s^atai®, Orese© ea4 Eestb Plaiag, alth^u^h, of
* eisaet ls>cQtie2i ©£ cuck dsvaleps^at will depes&d ca Esspre^ictablc
ef^estlssg ee&
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tries wMck era already t&a prinsxy Effitmffictusrics e«%ivitiS3 in tha crusty.
Zt is enpoate-5 t&at tfes eidU&i&s cuclaus ef laasufscfcwviag fsciiiticvg
ekillc4 Idbor £0rca will etfryact o^^jy such fleas te tha ares. 71®
lieteeat »f ftha B. S. Public E&alth Eervice private e
asar Graisco will olsa lalp to eifcraet ©thsr eupiiortlss ecieatlfle estivlttes.
<3) M taorasGO la £ssd ps-eeeeslBs iKdxistriea. 40
gr®3se &6 a eosult cf irjcreasitas pGj?aia£i4Ja, it la exj^ected that
bo a gradual cM£t gr
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