WORKING PAPER NO. 3
TOUCHET. RIVER AREA (WASHINGTON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
October 1961
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
WS&PC Program, Pacific Northwest
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TOUCHET RIVER AREA (WASHINGTON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
I. Introduction.
A. Purpose of This Analysis.
B. Definition of Area.
C. Study Period.
D. Limitations of Analysis.
II, Present Economic Development.
A. Population.
B. Industrial Pattern.
III. Estimated Growth.
A. Possibilities for Growth.
B. Estimate of Future Growth.
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
WS&PC Program, Pacific Northwest
October 1961
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October, 1961
TOUCHET RIVER AREA (WASHINGTON)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
I. Introduction.
A. Purpose of Analysis.
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate
of the economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.
B. Definition of Area.
The Touchet River Area is in southeast Washington. It in-
cludes a major part of Columbia County and a broad corridor, adjoining
the Touchet River and the Walla Walla River below its juncture with
the Touchet River, through Walla Walla County. For the purposes of
this preliminary estimate, it has been approximately defined by Census
Divisions as shown in Table II-A-1. Excluded from the projections are
the areas on the shores of the Columbia River at the mouth of the Walla
Walla River.
C. Study Period.
The study period is the 50-year period ending in 2010. The
year 1980 is taken as an interim point.
D. Limitations of Analysis.
This analysis is intended only as an initial estimate of the
outlook of the Touchet River Area, based upon broad trends. Sub-
sequently, in connection with the development of the Columbia River
Basin Project for Water Supply and Water Quality Management, additional
and more detailed economic analysis will be considered. Such an
analysis would include studies of grox-jth potential on an industry-by-
industry basis. At that time, this preliminary estimate will be
reviewed and revised if necessary.
II. Present Economic Development.
A. Population.
The Touchet River Area contained about 8,000 persons in 1960.
This represented a loss of more than 2 percent in the decade 1950-1960.
This population was about evenly distributed between the Columbia
County and Walla Walla County portions of the area. The largest
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community was Dayton with a population of about 3,000 persons. The
population of the area and its distribution for both 1950 and 1960
is shown in Table II-A-1.
Table II-A-1
POPULATION IN TOUCHET RIVER AREA, 1950 AND 1960
Number of
Inhabitants
1950 1960
Columbia County:
Division 1 .- 1372 1213
Dayton City 2979 2913
Division 3 244 221
Upper Touchet River 4595 4347
Walla Walla County:
Prescott Town (in Div. 1) 244 269
Half of Remainder of Div. 1 ... 331 331
Half of Division 2 88 76
Half of Division 3 442 543
Division 4 .' 804 779
Half of Division 5 260 253
Waitsburg City (in Div. 6) .... 1015 1010
Half of Remainder of Div. 6 ... 450 432
Lower Touchet River ......... 3634 3693
Total Study Area 8229 8040
Decrease in Population 189
Decrease as % of 1950 2.3%
Source: U. S. Census of Population, 1960. (Final
Report PC(1)-49A)
The population of the Study Area is compared to certain
other areas in Table II-A-2. It should be noted that the population
trend of the Study Area is considerably different from the State and
the Nation. The growth of Walla Walla County is mainly attributed to
population increases in Walla Walla City and its suburbs.
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Table II-A-2
POPULATION GROWTH OF TOUCHET RIVER AREA
COMPARED TO SELECTED AREAS
Percent
Number of inhabitants Change
1950 1960 1950 to 1960
Columbia County 4,860 4,569 -6.0%
Upper Touchet River Area 4,595 4,347 -5.4%
Upper River Area as
Percent of County (94.5%) (95.0%)
Walla Walla County 40,135 42,195 5.1%
Lovrer Touchet River Area 3,634 3,693 1.7%
Lower River Area as
Percent of County (9.0%) (8.7%)
Washington State 2,378,963 2,853,214 19.9%
Touchet River Area 8,229 8,040 -2.3%
Touchet River Area as
Percent of State (0.35%) (0.28%)
United States 151,325,793 179,323,175 18.5%
Source: U. S. Census of Population, 1960
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B, Industrial Pattern.
1. General.
For the purpose of this estimate, it is considered
reasonable to examine the industrial pattern of Columbia County and
to assume that it is representative of the portion of the Walla
Walla County area which is included in the Study Area.
The 1950 distribution of employment in Columbia County
is shown in Table II-B-1. This table illustrates the importance of
agriculture as a major basic industry in the area. This importance is
emphasized even more by analyzing the composition of the manufacturing
employment. The major component of manufacturing employment is due to
food processing industries.
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Table II-B-1
DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT
IN COLUMBIA COUNTY, WASHINGTON, IN 1950
Employed Persons
Number % of Total
Agriculture 644 36.8
Manufacturing 204 11.7
Retail Trade 249 14.3
Other (mainly service industries) .. 652 37.2
Total 1,749 100.0
Source: U. S. Census of Population, 1950.
A compirison of 1950 Census of Population data with the
1959 Census of Agriculture and with 1960 "Covered Employment" data
from the Washington State Department of Employment Security indicates
that the 1950 pattern is still substantially correct for the Study
Area. Unfortunately, the "economic characteristics" sections of the
1960 Census of Population have not yet been made available.
2. Manufacturing.
The main manufacturing plants on the Touchet River are
at Dayton and Waitsburg. They are both owned by the Green Giant
Company and are briefly described in the following tabulation^.
Location: Dayton Waitsburg
Product: Canned peas, Canned peas
asparagus
Average employment: 100-249 20-49
Peak employment: 1,000-2,499 250-449
The output from these two plants has been estimated to be about
1-3/4 million cases of peas and 180,000 cases of asparagus annually.
This estimate is based on a 1959 production statistic for the company's
Blue Mountain Division, proportioned in accordance with employment.
I/Data are from the "1961 Directory of Washington State Manufacturers,"
Washington State Department of Commerce and Economic Development.
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From an examination of Columbia County "Covered Employ-
ment" in nondurable goods manufacturing for 1960, it appears that the
peak of canning operations occurs during May, June and July. The
employment in this category during these months was four times greater
than during the remaining months of the year.
3. Agriculture.
Using as a guide for the Study Area the Columbia County
statistics from the 1959 Census of Agriculture, it is seen that the
number of farms have been decreasing, but their average size has been
increasing since 1954. About three-fourths of the cropland harvested
was in grain crop production, with green peas and asparagus accounting
for the majority of the remaining cropland harvested.
Irrigation is practiced on a relatively small amount of
the area's land. Columbia County in 1959 reported 3,343 acres irri-
gated , compared to 114,656 cropland acres harvested. Walla Walla
County had considerably more irrigation (37,296 acres irrigation and
279,538 acres of cropland harvested) but much of this is outside the
Study Area. The Dayton Project, as described in the 1957 report of
the U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, would have 9,930 acres under irri-
gation, of which 1,350 are presently irrigated, but have an inadequate
water supply.
III. Estimated Growth.
A. Possibilities for Growth.
Three possibilities for growth in the Study Area can be pre-
dicted at this time. They are, (1) a moderate increase in service
industries due to automobile traffic on the proposed Lolo Pass Highway,
(2) a possible increase in population merely due to the pressure from
other areas, and (3) a moderate increase in population and service
industries due to the proposed Dayton Project. This project would not
only increase the value of farm output, but would have some other
income-generating aspects through the use of the proposed reservoir
for its various multiple purposes.
B. Estimate of Future Growth.
For the purposes of this study, the maximum estimate of future
population growth is based on an assumed growth rate of 0.5 percent a
year. This is the same annual rate as Walla Walla County experienced
in the 1950-1960 decade, but it is only about a fourth as large a rate
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as the State's growth during the past decade. As a minimum estimate of
population growth, it is assumed that.no change will occur. This is
in contrast to the past decade during which there was a net loss.
Based on these growth rates, the number of inhabitants in the Stuiy
Area is estimated to increase as shown in Table III-B»1. The distri-
bution of the increase is expected to remain about the same as at
present, with 50 percent rural and 50 percent in urban places.
Table III-B-1
ESTIMATE OF FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH
IN TOUCHET RIVER AREA, 1960 TO 1980-2010
Number of Inhabitants
Maximum Minimum
1960 8,040 8,040
Annual Grovth Rate . . 0.5% None
1980 8,900 8,040
2010 10,300 . 8,040
It is not deemed reasonable under the conditions of this
study to forecast in greater detail the increases in industrial or
commercial development. No specific large industrial expansion is
foreseen. The grpwth of existing industry and commerce is expected
generally to keep pace with the forecast for population growth.
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