WORKING PAPER NO. 7
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POPULATION
DALLAS, INDEPENDENCE AND MONMOUTH (POLK COUNTY)
DATE: November, 1961
Prepared by
Reviewed by
Approved by
DISTRIBUTION
Project Staff
Cooperating Agencies?
General
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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This working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
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ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POPULATION
DALLAS, INDEPENDENCE AND MONMOUTH (POLK COUNTY)
Table of Contents
I. Introduction
II. Past Growth
III. Present Economic Base
IV. Future Growth
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control
Program, Pacific Northwest
November, 1961
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November 1961
ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POPULATION
DALLAS, INDEPENDENCE AND MONMOUTH (POLK COUNTY)
I. Introduction
Estimates of future population of cities are subject to a wider margin
of error than those for areas such as counties or river basins because
of the additional variable of possible annexations to the cities.
In the case of the three cities discussed in this report, no attempt
has been made to separate the portion of their past growth due to
annexations from the portion due to development within previous bound-
aries. It would appear that there are some limited possibilities for
small annexations around each of these three cities in the future. It
is assumed, in the following projections, that future growth will
represent about the same mixture as it has in the past of (1) annexatioi
and (2) more intensive development of the older area.
II. Past Growth
Table 1 shows the history of population growth from 1920-60 in the
three cities that are the subjects of the report and the comparable
growth in the rest of Polk County. Table 2 shows this same growth in
terms of a percentage rate, compounded annually.
By far the most rapid growth in Polk County has occurred in West Salem.
This was part of the national trend toward urbanization, accentuated by
the growth of State government employment in Salem. Monmouth has also
had above average growth, a result of growing expenditures on education
and teacher training—the Oregon College of Education is the principal
industry in Monmouth. Dallas, the county seat, grew at the same rate
as Polk County as a whole during the period 1920-60. Independence has
grown less rapidly than the county as a whole, and actually declined
during the decade 1950-60
Table 1
GROWTH OF POPULATION, 1920-60
PRINCIPAL CITIES OF POLK COUNTY
Area 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
Dallas 2,701 2,975 3,579 4,793 5,072
Independence 1,143 1,248 1,372 1,987 1,930
Monmouth 582 906 965 1,956 2,229
West Salem 208 974 2,225 3,053 3,897
Rest of County ... 9,547 10,755 11,848 14,528 13,395
Total County 14,181 16,858 19,989 26,317 26,523
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Table 2
RATE 'OF GROWTH OF POPULATION, 1920-60
PRINCIPAL CITIES OF POLK COUNTY
ANNUAL RATE, COMPOUNDED ANNUALLY, PERCENT
Area
Dallas
Independence ..
Monmouth
West Salem
Rest of County
Total County ..
1920-30
1.0
0.9
1.5
16.7
1.2
1.7
1930-40
1.9
0.6
8.6
1.0
1.7
1940-50
2.9
3.7
7.3
3.2
2.0
2.8
1950-60
0.6
-0.3(d)
1.3
2.5
-0.8(d)
0.1
(40 years)
1920-60
1.6
1.3
3.4
7.6
0.9
1.6
(d) - Decrease
Table 2 shows that recent growth in Polk County has been sharply
irregular. The decade 1940-50 saw rapid growth in all cities and parts
of the county, as agricultural and lumber production increased with the
war effort and in-migration to Oregon. During 1950-60, however, total
population in the county remained almost stationary. A decline in
rural population and in the population of Independence was just offset
by increases in urban population, particularly in Salem and Monmouth.
Polk County is part of an area defined, for purposes of the Columbia
River Basin Project, as the Mid-Willamette Basin. Table 3 shows that
Polk County's growth lagged behind that of most of the counties in this
sub-basin during 1950-60-
Table 3
POPULATION GROWTH IN COUNTIES IN THE KID-WILLAMETTE BASIN, 1950-60
ANNUAL RATE, COMPOUNDED ANNUALLY, PER CENT
County
Benton
Linn
Marion
Polk
Yamhill
Total Mid-Willamette Basin
Annual Rate, %
2.2
0.8
1.8
0.1
-0.3 (d)
1.2
(d) - Decrease
III. Present Economic Base
The difference in growth rates among the various counties shown in
Table 3 can be explained by their respective economic bases. A signific
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part of the economy of Benton County is associated with Oregon State
University, which has had a rapid growth. Marion County's growth has
received impetus from employment in State government at Salem. Linn
County's growth has been largely due to its relatively diversified
economy centered at Albany, where metal research and manufacturing
is located. Polk and Yamhill Counties, on the other hand, are dependen
almost entirely on agriculture and two types of manufacturing: lumber-
wood products and food processing. In Polk County, as of April, 1960,
food processing and lumber-wood represented about 80 percent of all
manufacturing employment in the county. The only other element in the
county's basic economy is the Oregon College of Education at Monmouth,
employing about 300 persons.
The economy base of the three cities which are the subjects of this
study can be seen more specifically by listing their principal manu-
facturing firms as shown in Table 4. The table emphasizes their great
dependence upon agriculture, food processing and lumber-wood products
manufacturing.
Table 4
PRINCIPAL MANUFACTURING FIRMS IN DALLAS, INDEPENDENCE AND MONMOUTH, 196
All Manufacturing Firms Employing More Than Number of
City • Ten Persons Employees
Dallas , DeGraff Church Furniture Company 15
Frieson Core Company (wooden spools) 11
Gerlinger Carrier (lumber handling equip.). 252
LaCreole Lumber Company 17
Tracy Co. (fruit and vegetable canning) ... 30 to 13
Willamette Valley Lumber Company 400
Independence .. Holt Equipment Co. (farm and lumber equip). 85
Interstate Shingle Company 25
Mountain Fir Lumber Company 61
Rein Lumber Company 16
Monmouth None (Monmouth *s economic base is almost
entirely dependent on the Oregon College
of Education).
Source: Oregon State Department of Planning and Development, 1961
Directory of Oregon Manufacturers.
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The only other distinctive element in the economic base of any of thest
cities is the fact that county government is located at Dallas. Each
of the cities, of course, derives some support from providing trade
and service facilities for the surrounding rural area.
IV. Future Growth
An initial appraisal of the outlook for growth in the five counties in
the Mid-Willamette Basini/during 1960-80 is that the rate of increase
will be considerably above that of the 1950-60 decade (1.2 percent per
year), but less than that of the 1940-50 decade (3.7 percent per year)
However, most of this growth is expected to be associated with Salem,
Albany, and Corvallis. Polk County is likely to continue to grow at
a much slower rate than the Mid-Willamette Basin as a whole. Within
Polk County, it appears likely that most of the growth will be in the
portion in or near Salem.
Of the three cities under consideration, only Monmouth has a present
economic base which appears to be capable of considerable enlargement.
Growth at the Oregon College of Education might parallel growth in
State population, for which a preliminary estimate is 2.0 percent per
year for the period 1960-80, 1.7 percent per year for the period
1980-2000, and 1.5 percent per year for 2000-2010. While the need
for teachers may grow more rapidly than population, Monmouth's share
of total teacher training in the State may decline with the growth
of Portland State College.
Dallas' population growth might parallel, as it did over the 1920-60
period, that of Polk County, for which a preliminary estimate is 0.8
percent per year for 1960-80, 0.6 percent for 1980-2010. This raee^
of growth would be very much higher than Polk County's growth from
1950-60, though only about half of its average for the period 1920-60.
Such growth in Dallas would probably be built upon expansion of food
processing and wood manufacturing.
Growth for Independence is more difficult to foresee because an econom:
base upon which such growth might be built does not appear to exist
at the present time. Its chief asset is its location on the Willamette
\J These preliminary evaluations are based on a judgment of the distri-
bution: among the State's sub-basins of population forecasts for the
State as a whole.
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However, above and below it on the Willamette are Albany and Salem,
with more attractions for industrial location. For purposes of these
projections, it is assumed that Independence might grow at a rate of
0.1 percent per year (the rate for Folk County during 1950-60) during
the period 1960-80 and 0.2 percent per year from 1980-2010.
On the basis of these assumptions, the following table shows the
future populations of the three cities that would result.
Table 5
PRELIMINARY PROJECTIONS OF POPULATION, 1980 AND 2010
DALLAS, INDEPENDENCE AND MONMOUTH (POLK COUNTY)
1960 1980 2010
Area Census Estimate Estimate
Dallas 5,072 5,900 7,100
Independence 1,930 2,000 2,100
Monmouth 2,229 3,300 5,400
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