WORKING PAPER NO. 6
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
WILLOW CREEK AREA (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE: October 1961
Prepared by
Reviewed by
Approved by
DISTRIBUTION
Project Staff
Cooperating Agencies
General
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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This working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
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WILLOW CREEK AREA (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OP ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960*2010
Table of Contents
I. Introduction
A. Purpose of Analysis
B. Definition of Area
C. Study Period
D. Limitations of Analysis
II. Present Economic Development
A. Population
B. Industrial Pattern
III. Estimated Growth
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control Program,
Pacific Northwest
October 6, 1961
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October 6, 1961
WILLOW CREEK AREA (OREGON)
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010
I. Introduction
A. Purpose of Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the
economic potentials and economic growth of the subject area.
B. Definition of Area
Willow Creek is a tributary of the Columbia River, joining it at about
the middle of the John Day Pool (under construction). A major part of Morrow
County, Oregon, is drained by Willow Creek. For the purposes of this analysis,
the study area is approximately defined by Census County Divisions as shown in
Table II-A-1. This study area is statistically derived and includes all of
Morrow County except an area in the northeast part of the county which contains
the community of Boardman. It is assumed that, although these arbitrary bound-
aries do not exactly coincide with the sub-basin boundaries, the various dis-
crepancies will be compensating in their net effect. Excluded from the pro-
jections are the areas on the shores of the Columbia River at the mouth of
Willow Creek.
C. Study Period
The study period is the 50-year period ending in 2010. The year 1980
is taken as an interim point.
D. Limitations of Analysis
This analysis is intended only as an initial estimate of the outlook of
the Willow Creek area, based upon broad trends. Subsequently, in connection
with the development of the Columbia River Basin Project for Water Supply and
Water Quality Management, additional and more detailed economic analysis will
be considered. Such an analysis would include studies of growth potential
on an industry-by-industry basis. At that time, this preliminary estimate will
be reviewed and revised, if necessary.
II. Present Economic Development
A. Population
The study area contained about 4,100 persons in 1960, of which 40 percent
were in Heppner City. The distribution of this population is shown in Table
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II-A-1. The population of the county and of Heppner has remained almost
unchanged since 1950. It is assumed that the study area population has
followed the same trend.
Table II-A-1.
POPULATION IN WILLOW CREEK AREA, 1960
(Source: U. S. Census of Population)
Number of Inhabitants
Morrow Study
County Area
Boardman Division 1,145 380^
Boardman City
Irrigon City
Heppner Division 2,517 2,517
Heppner City
lone-Lexington Division 1,209 1,209
lone City
Lexington Town
TOTAL 4,871 4,106
_!/ Study area portion of Boardman Division was computed by subtracting the
population of Boardman and Irrigon cities from the Division and taking half
the remainder.
B. Industrial Pattern
The 1950 distribution of employment in Morrow County is shown in Table
II-B-1; When the employment data from the 1960 Census of Population are
available, it is not expected to change this distribution. The only signifi-
cantly sized manufacturing operation now in the county is the Kinzua Corpor-
ation wood products plant at Heppner with an employment of 80 persons.—'
The agriculture of the county is primarily based on wheat production.
Irrigation is practiced on 14,019 acres according to the 1959 Census of
Agriculture. This compares to 181,246 acres of cropland harvested and
164,035 acres of cultivated summer fallow.
TJ Data are from the "1961 Directory of Oregon Manufacturers", by the Oregon
State Department of Planning and Development.
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Table II-B-1.
DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT IN MORROW COUNTY, OREGON, IN 1950
(Source: U. S. Census of Population, 1950)
Employed Persons
Number % of Total
Agriculture 815 40.8
Construction 194 9.7
Manufacturing (mainly wood products) 145 7.3
Retail Trade 257 12.9
Other (mainly service industries) 586 29.3
TOTAL 1,997 100.0
III- Estimated Growth
No population growth is predicted for the study area. The basis for
this prediction includes an assumption that any water control projects on
Willow Creek will not substantially alter the number of farms in the study
area. It is also assumed that the industrial facilities proposed for the
Boardman area will have ho effect on the study area. These facilities which
the Boeing organization is considered likely to construct will probably
immediately increase the population of the Boardman area by several hundred
persons. The ultimate growth of the Boardman area, however, might be several
times as great.
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