WORKING PAPER NO.    6
                      COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
             For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
                      WILLOW CREEK AREA  (OREGON)
          PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE:  October 1961

Prepared by 	

Reviewed by 	

Approved by 	
DISTRIBUTION
Project Staff
Cooperating Agencies

General
           U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFARE
                         Public Health Service
                               Region IX

            Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
                           570 Pittock Block
                           Portland 5, Oregon

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This working paper contains  preliminary data  and information




primarily intended for internal  use  by the  Columbia River




Basin Project staff and cooperating  agencies.  The material




presented in this paper has  not  been fully  evaluated and




should not be considered as  final.

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               WILLOW CREEK AREA (OREGON)
    PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OP ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960*2010
                    Table of Contents


             I.  Introduction

                A.  Purpose of Analysis

                B.  Definition of Area

                C.  Study Period

                D.  Limitations of Analysis


            II.  Present Economic Development

                A.  Population

                B.  Industrial Pattern


           III.  Estimated Growth
Prepared by:  Economic Studies Group
              Water Supply and Pollution Control  Program,
                Pacific Northwest
              October 6, 1961

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                                                         October 6, 1961
                       WILLOW CREEK AREA (OREGON)
           PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010
I.  Introduction

     A.  Purpose of Analysis

     This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the
economic potentials and economic growth of the subject area.

     B.  Definition of Area

     Willow Creek is a tributary of the Columbia River, joining it at about
the middle of the John Day Pool (under construction).   A major part of Morrow
County, Oregon, is drained by Willow Creek.  For the purposes of this analysis,
the study area is approximately defined by Census County Divisions as shown in
Table II-A-1.  This study area is statistically derived and includes all of
Morrow County except an area in the northeast part of the county which contains
the community of Boardman.  It is assumed that, although these arbitrary bound-
aries do not exactly coincide with the sub-basin boundaries, the various dis-
crepancies will be compensating in their net effect.  Excluded from the pro-
jections are the areas on the shores of the Columbia River at the mouth of
Willow Creek.

     C.  Study Period

     The study period is the 50-year period ending in 2010.  The year 1980
is taken as an interim point.

     D.  Limitations of Analysis

     This analysis is intended only as an initial estimate of the outlook of
the Willow Creek area, based upon broad trends.  Subsequently, in connection
with the development of the Columbia River Basin Project for Water Supply and
Water Quality Management, additional and more detailed economic analysis will
be considered.  Such an analysis would include studies of growth potential
on an industry-by-industry basis.  At that time, this  preliminary estimate will
be reviewed and revised, if necessary.

II.  Present Economic Development

     A.  Population

     The study area contained about 4,100 persons in 1960, of which 40 percent
were in Heppner City.  The distribution of this population is shown in Table

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II-A-1.  The population of the county and of Heppner has remained almost
unchanged since 1950.  It is assumed that the study area population has
followed the same trend.

                              Table II-A-1.
                  POPULATION IN WILLOW CREEK AREA, 1960
                  (Source:  U. S. Census of Population)

                                            Number of Inhabitants
                                            Morrow         Study
                                            County         Area

          Boardman Division                  1,145           380^
            Boardman City
            Irrigon City
          Heppner Division                   2,517         2,517
            Heppner City
          lone-Lexington Division            1,209         1,209
            lone City
            Lexington Town
          TOTAL                              4,871         4,106
_!/ Study area portion of Boardman Division was computed by subtracting the
population of Boardman and Irrigon cities from the Division and taking half
the remainder.

     B.  Industrial Pattern

     The 1950 distribution of employment in Morrow County is shown in Table
II-B-1;  When the employment data from the 1960 Census of Population are
available, it is not expected to change this distribution.  The only signifi-
cantly sized manufacturing operation now in the county is the Kinzua Corpor-
ation wood products plant at Heppner with an employment of 80 persons.'

     The agriculture of the county is primarily based on wheat production.
Irrigation is practiced on 14,019 acres according to the 1959 Census of
Agriculture.  This compares to 181,246 acres of cropland harvested and
164,035 acres of cultivated summer fallow.
TJ Data are from the "1961 Directory of Oregon Manufacturers", by the Oregon
State Department of Planning and Development.

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                               Table II-B-1.
        DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT IN MORROW COUNTY, OREGON, IN 1950
                (Source:  U.  S.  Census  of Population,  1950)
                                                         Employed Persons
                                                      Number     % of Total

Agriculture  	     815         40.8
Construction	     194          9.7
Manufacturing  (mainly wood products)  	     145          7.3
Retail Trade	     257         12.9
Other  (mainly  service industries) 	     586         29.3
  TOTAL  	   1,997        100.0
III- Estimated Growth

     No population growth is predicted for the study area.  The basis for
 this prediction  includes an assumption that any water control projects on
 Willow Creek will not substantially alter the number of farms in the study
 area.  It  is also assumed that the industrial facilities proposed for the
 Boardman area will have ho effect on the study area.  These facilities which
 the Boeing organization is considered likely to construct will probably
 immediately increase the population of the Boardman area by several hundred
 persons.   The ultimate growth of the Boardman area, however, might be several
 times  as great.

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