WORKING PAPER NO. 29
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
SWEET HOME, OREGON
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE: August 22, 1962 DISTRIBUTION
Prepared by RLC Project Staff
Reviewed by Cooperating Agencies
Approved by General
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Room 570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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This working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
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SWEET HOME, OREGON
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. 1960*2010
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION 1
Purpose of Analysis 1
Definition of the Area 1
Study Period 1
Limitations of this Analysis 1
PRESENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 2
Population 2
Present Industrial Pattern 2
ESTIMATED GROWTH 1960-2010 3
Economic Base 3
Population 5
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control
Program, Pacific Northwest
August 1962
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SWEET HOME, OREGON
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. 1960*2010
INTRODUCTION
Purpose of Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the economic
potentials and a broad guide to the anticipated growth of the subject area.
Definition of the Area
The study is limited to the city of Sweet Home and the immediately adjacent
area.
Study Period
The 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim point at 1985, is being used
by this office in its economic studies of the Columbia Basin as a whole; and
the same period is used for this analysis.
Limitation? of this Analysis
This is intended only as an initial estimate of the outlook for Sweet Home, and
its conclusions are for design purposes only. Subsequently, in connection
with the Columbia Basin Study, an analysis will be made, on an industry-by
industry basis, of the growth potential of the central Willamette Basin.
At that time, this preliminary estimate will be reviewed, and revised if
necessary.
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PRESENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Population
The population of Sweet Home in April 1960 was 3,353, a decline of 250, or
7% percent from the population figure reported a decade earlier. It should
be noted, however, that Sweet Home and neighboring Lebanon are located in a
semi-rural area upon which both draw for economic purposes; though the
populations of both Sweet Home and Lebanon are reported to have declined
between 1950 and 1960, the total population of these cities and related
census districts rose during the decade from about 18,670 to about 20,500.
Of this, at least 5,500 persons may be assigned to Sweet Rome and immediate
residential areas.
Present Indus trial Pattern
The economy of Sweet Home is intensely concentrated on lumbering, with saw
mills providing the chief industry, while production of plywood and veneer
and logging also contribute substantially to the economic life of the city.
Other manufacturing industries--a small chemical plant, a sand and gravel
pit, a meat packing plant, and a small electronics plant—employ a total of
about 40 persons, compared to 1,000 to 1,400 employed in various lumbering
functions.
Agriculture in the area about Sweet Home is negligible, though some dairy
farming, pasturing, and bean and berry culture may be observed. The
population of Sweet Home and adjacent areas is sufficient to support a
considerable commercial and service industry, including two elementary and
one secondary schools; motels, restaurants, service stations and garages,
and retail stores; utility offices, municipal offices, and a police
department; banking, real estate and insurance brokerage; and professional
services.
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In impact on the economic life of the city, lumbering far outweighs all other
forms of activity. The six saw mills provide employment for up to 650 persons
••530 in one large plant. -Three veneer and plywood plants employ about 215.
Three mills utilizing wood wastes employ 70 to 90 in the production of chip-
board, particleboard, and fibreboard; while a shingle mill and a wood
fabricating plant utilize the services of about 65 persons. Some twenty-five
logging operations are based in Sweet Home. These are for the most part
small concerns employing one to five persons, depending on seasonal and
business cycle fluctuations. Two of these companies, however, are quite
large; one employs an average of 50 persons, the other 50 to 100. The great
weight of lumbering on the city's economic life is demonstrated by the table
below,; which contrasts a partial distribution of the 1960 employed labor
force of Sweet Home, Linn County, and the State of Oregon.
EMPLOYED SWEET HOME LINN COUNTY OREGON
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 2.9% 35.0% 7.9%
Durable goods manufacturing 41.0 28.8 16.6
Wholesale and retail trade 14.9 17.4 20.0
Professional and related services 14.7 11.0 13.5
/ Source: U^S. Department of Commerce--United States Census of Population:
1960 Oregon. General Social and Economic Characteristics. (It should be
noted that the figures apply only to the population of Sweet Home proper.
They are believed to be characteristic of Sweet Home and the immediately
adjacent area.}/
ESTIMATED GROWTH 1960-2010
Economic Base
Relying as it does on forest products for its economic health, Sweet Home's
future is tied to the existence of reserves of standing saw timber in and
about the South Santiam Basin. Though of lesser magnitude than those of
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Lane County, Linn County's timber reserves are substantial; and potentially
larger reserves of immature pole timber exist to maintain forest products
production in the later years of the study period.
The combination of a rising national population and dwindling timber reserves
should, during the period 1960-1985, cause a reversal of the excess supply
situation that existed in U.S. lumbering through the late 1950's; and it may
be assumed that the logging and saw mill activities situated about Sweet Home
will experience considerable expansion. By 1985 much of the nation's timber
production will probably be limited to sustained yield levels, giving a
particular economic value to the quantities of immature timber growing in
Linn. County.
Studies of timber resources and demand have indicated that a .67.-.9% average
annual growth factor may be applied to saw mill output until annual cut
reaches sustained yield levels, (cf. U.S. Forest Service: Timber Resources
for America's Future; Guthrie & Armstrong: Western Forest Industry,.
An Economi c Out look; U.S, Army Corps of Engineers: Water Resource Development.
Columbia River Basin) Other forest products output may be expected to rise
at substantially faster rates. In Sweet Home's case, it may be assumed that
the effect of rising saw mill output will be matched by increased activity
in wood fabricating activities, plywood and veneer manufacture, and chipboard
production. Establishment of pulping facilities in the immediate area of
Sweet Home seems unlikely: existing pulp plants at Lebanon (80 tons per day
capacity) and Albany (240 tons per day) seem better located and capable of
sufficient expansion to utilize the chippable residues of saw mill and
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plywood and veneer production in the area. In contrast to the national trend,
it is unlikely that service and commercial activities will expand at a
materially greater rate in Sweet Home than will industrial pursuits. Albany
.is only 25 miles from Sweet.Home; and considering the excellent highways and
the social and economic integration of the area, it is not unreasonable to
assume that Albany, as the largest city, will continue to serve as the
commercial and service focus of the South Santiam Basin with Lebanon, because
of its central location, experiencing somewhat more growth in service activities
than Sweet Home.
Population
By utilizing the tentative outline of Sweet Home's anticipated economic base,
it is possible to project population for design purposes. Certain assumptions
underlie the projection:
1. An .87. annual growth rate will apply in saw mill output.
2. .The age composition of Linn County's timber stands will permit even
expansion of production through the study period.
3. Productivity gains will be offset to some extent by shorter working hours
and increased employment opportunities in plywood and veneer and in wood
fabricating industries. In these industries, both production and productivity
may be expected to increase at a rate in excess of that of saw mills, with the
net effect of bringing the increase in total employment opportunities down to
the level of increased sawmill output. (An arbitrary assumption, admittedly,
but not an unreasonable one.)
In 1960 Sweet Home provided about 1,215 jobs in forest products industries.
By applying the .8% growth factor to employment, the number of jobs available
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in forest products industries is expanded to about 1,500 in 1985 and 1,820
in 2010. (No attempt is made to break employment possibilities into industry
components. It is envisaged that the bulk of jobs will be created in plywood
and veneer and in wood fabricating industries rather than in saw mills.) The
ability of adjacent cities to provide for a good part of Sweet Home's service
needs may be expected to restrict employment opportunities in service
industries. Assuming that the absolute number of non-manufacturing jobs
will increase, but that employment in manufacturing—practically synonymous
in Sweet Home's case with forest products industries—will remain near
40 percent of total employment, a projection of the total labor force is
derived, amounting to 3,700 in 1985 and 4,550 in 2010.
For several decades, about 37 percent of Oregon's population has been employed.
If it is assumed that this will continue to hold true for Sweet Home during
the study period, it will require a population of 10,000 persons in 1985 and
12,300 persons in 2010 to supply the projected labor force. It has been
noted, however, that a considerable part of the labor force of Sweet Home
has apparently been drawn from Lebanon and from rural areas well beyond
Sweet Home. It would appear reasonable to conclude that this will continue
to hold true in the future, and that a good part of Sweet Home's economic
population will dwell outside of the area of the city. Assigning 30 percent
of the population growth—slightly less than an equivalent portion of the
1960 population—to areas other than Sweet Home and immediate residential
areas, tentative population projections for Sweet Home of about 6,750 in
1985 and 8,370 in 2010 are reached, as summarized in the following table.
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1960 1985 2010
Manufacturing employment 1,215 1,500 1,820
Estimated labor force 2,960 3,700 4,550
Population from which labor
force is drawn 8,220 10,000 12,300
Population of Sweet Home and
adjacent areas 5,500 6,750 8,370
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