WORKING PAPER NO. 18
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN PROJECT
For Water Supply and Water Quality Management
BOISE RIVER BASIN (IDAHO)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE
OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
DATE: May 24, 1962 DISTRIBUTION
Prepared by EES Project Staff
Reviewed by Cooperating Agencies
Approved by General
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION AND WELFAJRE
Public Health Service
Region IX
Division of Water Supply and Pollution Control
Room 570 Pittock Block
Portland 5, Oregon
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This working paper contains preliminary data and information
primarily intended for internal use by the Columbia River
Basin Project staff and cooperating agencies. The material
presented in this paper has not been fully evaluated and
should not be considered as final.
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BOISE RIVER BASIN (IDAHO)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE
OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION 1
Purpose of Analysis 1
De flnltion o£ Area 1
Study Period 1
Limitations of Analysis 1
PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE 2
Population 2
Industry 4
Agricultural Land Use 7
ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH 9
Factors Influencing Future Growth 9
Future Population 12
Prepared by: Economic Studies Group
Water Supply and Pollution Control
Program, Pacific Northwest
May, 1962
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BOISE RIVER BASIN (IDAHO)
PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC RECONNAISSANCE AND ESTIMATE
OF GROWTH, 1960-2010
INTRODUCTION
Purpose of Analysis
This analysis is intended to provide a preliminary estimate of the
economic potentials and anticipated growth of the subject area.
Definition of Area
For purposes of this analysis, the Boise River Basin is defined as the
area included in Ada and Canyon Counties. The study area thus defined
includes some land, in the southern portion of the two counties, which
lies outside the physical boundary of the Boise River Basin, draining
south into the Snake River. The study area excludes the upstream portion
of the Boise River, lying to the east in Boise and Eliaore Counties. Even
though the boundaries of Ada and Canyon Counties do not coincide with
the physical boundary of the Boise River Basin, they do include the
portion of the Basin in which domestic and industrial water supply and
pollution control are likely to be a problem.
Study Period
The study period is the 50-year period 1960-2010, with an interim point
at 1980.
Limitations of Analysis
Two limitations apply to this study. The first is that it is intended
only as a preliminary estimate of the outlook for the subject area's growth.
Subsequently, in connection with the Columbia River Basin Project for
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Water Supply and Water Quality Management, an analysis will be made on an
tndustry-by-industry basis of the growth potential in the various sub-
basins. At that time, this preliminary estimate will be reviewed, and
revised if necessary.
The second limitation is that this study is intended for use particularly
in assessing future water needs. Emphasis has been placed on the analysis
of those industries which make heavy demands upon the water resource.
Other industries have been considered only insofar as they may have a
significant effect on future population. For this reason, this study is
not submitted as a detailed industrial forecast.
PRESENT ECONOMIC BASE
Population
Total population in Ada and Canyoq Counties, as of April I960, was
151,122. Table I shows how this population is distributed among the
various cities and rural portions of the study area. About half of the
population is in the Boise Urban Area. The Boise Urban Area includes
the urbanized areas contiguous to the incorporated city of Boise which
have not been annexed. The other nine cities make up about a quarter
of the population, and the remaining quarter is rural population.
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Table I
POPULATION, BOISE RIVER B/.SIH (ADA AND CANYON COUNTIES), 1950 and I9602-'
City or Area 1950 1960
Boise Urban Area, Total
Boise, city
Collister CCI£/
Franklin CCD£'
Garden City CCl£'
South Boise CCDfL/
Whitney CCD£/
Kuna, city
Meridian, city
Ada County, rural portion^'
Ada County, Total
Caldwell, city 10,487 12,230
Melba, city 203 197
Middleton, city 496 541
Nampa, city 16,185 18,013
Notus, city 313 324
Parma, city 1,369 1,295
Wilder, city 555 503
Canyon County, rural portion!/ 23,989 24,459
Canyon County, Total 53,597 57,662
55,000^
34,393
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
534
1,810
13,305^'
70,649
73,9oC
34,402
6,677
12,120
3,322
2,544
14, 823
51C
2,081
17,411
93,460
TOTAL, Boise River Basin
(Ada plus Canyon Counties)
124,246 151,122
Comparative Growth Rates:
Southern Idaho Region!' 446,473 514,578
Idaho, Total State 580,637 667,191
United States, Total 151.8m 180.On
Compound Annual
Rate of Growth.
3.0
0
Deer.
1.4
2.7
2.8
1.5
Deer.
0.9
1.1
0.3
Deer.
0.8
0.2
0.7
2.0
1.4
1.3
1.7
a/ Source: U.S. Census of Population, April 1950 and April 1960.
.b/ The Boise Urban Area has been defined to include the area comprising the
1960 Census County Divisions shown in the table. Comparable figures for
1950 are not available because the precincts used as statistical units for
the 1950 census do not correspond to the 1960 Census County Divisions. An
estimate has been made by relating the precinct map in the 1950 census to
the Census County Division map in the 1960 census. Data for Boise city
alone are not adequate because annexations have not brought into the city
the built-up area around it.
c_/ The CCD is the Census County Division as established for the 1960 census
and as shown in the maps in U.S. Census of Population, I960, Idaho, Number
of Inhabitants, page 14-6.
d/ The "rural" portion is defined to include all population outside the
Boise Urban Area and the incorporated cities shown in the table.
_§/ Defined to include all of Idaho south of Idaho County.
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Table II
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BOISE RIVER BASIN, APRIL 1950 AND APRIL 1960
Total Labor Force
Military
Unemployed
Industry not reported
Classifiable Employed Civilian L.F.
Agriculture
Forestry and Fisheries
Mining
Manufacturing, Total
Lumber, wood products
Food and kindred
Printing and publishing
Other manufacturing
Construction
Services
1950
47,680
115
2,608
843
44,114
8,588
103
132
3,250
335
1,329
592
994
4,344
27,697
1960
59,902
296
3,157
1,311
55,138
7,754
173
95
6,784
613
3,230
759
2,182
4,612
35,720
1960 as %
of 1950
126
257
121
156
125
90
168
72
209
183
243
128
220
106
129
Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1950 and 1960
Table II also shows the changes that took place in the employment pattern
during the 1950-60 decade. The two most significant changes during the
decade were the large increases in food products manufacturing and in
"other manufacturing." The latter increase shows an important trend
towards diversification of the economic base of the study area. During
the decade, agricultural employment, while remaining the largest of the
industrial classifications, declined, not only relatively but absolutely.
However, agricultural production increased substantially during the
decade, so that there was a marked increase in productivity per agricul-
tural worker.
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The economic base of the Boise River Basin can be seen more clearly by
comparing the employment pattern there with that in the entire southern
Idaho Region, of which it is a part. This is shown in Table III. While
agriculture is important in the Boise River Basin, it is relatively less
predominant there than in the Southern Idaho Region. Service industry
employment is relatively more important. The Boise Urban Area is
providing services for the rest of the Region, particularly in wholesale
trade, finance-insurance-real estate, business services, professional
and related services, and public administration. The latter is largely
due to the location of the state capitol at Boise. The concentration of
service industry employment in the Boise Urban Area is less pronounced
than in the case of the central cities of other Regions, such as
Table III
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION
BOISE FJVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN IDAHO REGION, APRIL 1960
Percent of Total Labor Force
Industry or Class
Total Labor Force
Military
Unemployed
Industry not reported
Classifiable Employed Civilian L.F.
Agriculture
Forestry and Fisheries
Mining
Manufacturing, Total
Lumber, wood products
Food and kindred
Printing and publishing
Other manufacturing
Construction
Services
Boise River
Basin (a)
100 ,0
0.5
5.3
2.2
92.0
12.9
0.3
0.2
11.3
1.0
5.4
1.3
3.6
7.7
59.6
Southern
Idaho Region (b)
100.0
2.1
4.7
2.1
91.1
19.2
0.4
0.3
10.5
1.3
4.8
0.9
3.5
6.7
54.0
Source: U.S. Census of Population, April 1960
(a) Includes Ada and Canyon Counties.
(b) Includes all of Idaho south of Idaho County.
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Seattle or Portland, because the Southern Idaho Region does not have a
single predominant urban area. Pocatello and Idaho Falls rival Boise
in providing services. The large number of workers in '"construction" is
partly due to the fact that the headquarters of the Morrison-Knudsen Co.
are in Boise.
Agricultural Land Use
Table IV shows how the land in farms in the Boise Elver Basin was divided
among the various uses in 1954 and 1959. The type of use employing the
greatest number of acres is pasture. The principal change in land use
during the five-year period 1954-59 was a ten percent increase in crop-
land harvested. There was also an eight percent increase in irrigated
acreage during the 1954-59 period. Of the 330,000 acres irrigated in
1959, 249,000 were cropland harvested and the remaining 81 were in pasture
uses. Total land in farms increased six percent from 1954 to 1959.
Table IV
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE, ADA AND CANYON COUNTIES, 1954 and 1959£/
Thousands of Acres
Type of Use 1954 1959
Land in Farms, Total 627 667
Cropland harvested 237 260
Cropland in fallow, etc. 20 15
Land used for pasture 314 324
Cropland used for pasture SI 53
Woodland used for pasture 15 34
Pasture land 238 237
Woodland 4
Other (lots, roads, etc.) 52 68
Irrigated acres (included in above uses) 306 330
Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1959
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The types of crops raised on the ''cropland harvested" acres in 1959 are
shown in Table V. Of the 260,000 acres shown in the table, 249,000 were
irrigated.
Table V
ACRES OF CROPLAND, BY TYPE OF CROP, ADA AND CANYON COUNTIES, 1959
Type of Crop Acres. Thousands
Hay 86
Grains 65
Corn 45
Sugar Beets 23
Field seeds 14
Corn seed 7
Potatoes 6
Beans 4
Orchards 4
Mi scellaneous 6
Total, Cropland Harvested 2CO
Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1959
Two of the principal crops providing materials for the food processing
industry in the Boisa River Basin are potatoes and sugar beets. Table VI
shows the volume of production of these two crops in 1954 and 1959.
Production of both of these crops increased substantially during the five
years from 1954 to 1959.
Table VI
VOLUME OF PRODUCTION, POTATOES AND SUGAR BEETS
ADA AND CANYON COUNTIES, 1954 and 1959
1959 as 7.
Crop arid Measure 1954 1959 of 1954
Ada and Canyon Counties:
Potatoes, hundredweight 1,324,959 1,921,008 145
Sugar Baets, tons 469,566 613,092 131
Comparative statistics for all of Idaho:
Potatoes, hundredweight 25,735,619 40,130,750 156
Sugar Beets, tons 1,547,436 1,953,046 126
Ada and Canyon Counties as Percent of Total Idaho:
Potatoes 5.1 4.8
Sugar Beets 30.3 31.4
Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1959
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The values of the major classes of farm products produced in Ada and
Canyon Counties in 1954 and 1959 are shown in Table VII. Livestock,
dairying, and field crops are all important in the agricultural economy
of the Basin. Principal crops are potatoes, sugar beets and grains. All
of the classes of products shown in Table VII increased substantially
during the five-year period 1954-59. The value of livestock showed a
particularly large increase.
Table VII
VALUE OF FARM PRODUCTS PRODUCED IN ADA AND CANYON COUNTIES, 1954 and 1959
(in millions of dollars)
1959 as %
Type of Products 1954 1959 of 1954
Crops 20.6 26.4 128
Dairy 11.7 15.2 130
Poultry 1.1 2.1 191
Livestock 10.3 20.1 195
TOTAL, All Farm Products 43.7 63.8 145
Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture, 1959
ESTIMATED FUTURE GROWTH
Factors Influencing Future Growth
Future growth in the Boise River Basin, comprising Ada and Canyon Counties,
will depend largely upon the following factors:
1. Irrigation is expected to increase, leading to increases in
agricultural acreage and production within the study area.
2. Food products manufacturing, the principal manufacturing industry
in the Basin at present, is expected to increase in the future. Potato
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and sugar beet processing and meat packing are important industries in
the Basin now, and these are expected to increase substantially. The
agricultural raw materials for these industries are now drawn largely
from Ada and Canyon Counties themselves. While the radius within which
agricultural products are brought to the study area for processing might
increase if its plants become larger and more economical than competing
plants, it seems likely that increased agricultural acreage and production
within the study area itself will be essential to the anticipated increase
in food products manufacturing.
3. Construction employment in the Basin is likely to remain above
the Regional or national average. An important construction firm, the
Morrison-Knudsen Co., has its headquarters in Boise, though this is a
somewhat fortuitous circumstance which could be vulnerable to change.
Assuming a continuation of :!Cpld War4' activity, the missile base and
nuclear reactor programs in the Southern Idaho Region are likely to
continue to expand, with substantial construction rsquiraments.
4. Employment by "government'1 in Boise is likely to continue to
increase because of the location of the state capitol there.
5. Considerable growth in diversified manufacturing occurred in
the Study Area during the 1950-60 decade, and this trend is expected to
continue. One factor influencing this increase is that as population and
the economy increase in siae, the market grows sufficiently to justify the
local manufacture of products formerly imported.
S. Some increase seems likely in those service industries associated
with tourism. While tourist attractions within the study area itself are
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not outstanding, the study area should feel some effects from tourists
visiting Sun Valley and recreational areas in other parts of Idaho and
the Pacific Northwest.
Of the factors listed above, the most fundamental appears to be the
potential increase in irrigated acreage. One specific project for
increasing irrigation in the vicinity of the study area is that of the
Bureau of Reclamation, under whose Snake River Project about 119,000
new acres would be brought into irrigation at the Guffy, Long Tom and
Hillcrest Units of the Mountain Home Division. An additional 12,500
acres now receiving partial irrigation would receive increased water under
the project. All of this acreage is either in Ada or Canyon County or in
adjacent counties within the supply radius of food processing plants in the
study area. It is assumed in this economic reconnaissance that this pro-
ject will be fully developed by 1980, and that further increases in
irrigation in counties adjacent to the study area will be possible during
tha remainder of the study period.
The increased irrigation from the project described in the preceding
paragraph would represent an increase of about 40 percent over present
irrigated acreage. If the new land is put to uses in proportions similar
to cropland at present, as shown in Tables IV and V, it is assumed that
a comparable percentage increase in food products manufacturing might be
expected. On that basis, and assuming further increases in irrigation
and in productivity per acre in the future, employment in food products
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manufacturing in the study area might reasonably increase along the
lines suggested below:
I960 1980 2000 2010
3,200 4,600 5,000 5,200
Future Population
An estimate of future population in the Boise River Basin is shown in
Table VIII. This is based upon a projection of Idaho's future population
by the Kerr Committee on Water Resources. The estimates in Table VIII
of the Boise River Basin's share of Idaho population and the allocation
of Basin population among the various cities and rural areas of the
Basin is based upon an extrapolation of historic trends, modified by
general considerations of factors likely to affect the economic growth
of the 'respective areas. While no detailed study of demand and supply
factors for individual industries has been made for this economic
reconnaissance, the population growth shown in Table VIII is consistent
with the growth suggested for food products manufacturing, and also with
the other growth factors listed in the previous section.
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Table VIII
ESTIMATED FUTURE POPULATION, BOISE RIVER BASIN, 1960^2010,
AND ILLUSTRATIVE POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AMONG CITIES AND RURAL AREAS
(Population figures are in thousands; rates are compound annual percent.)
1950- 1960- 1980- 2000-
Pop., I960 Pop., 1980 Pop., 2000 Pop., 2010 Pop.,
City or Area 1950 Rate I960 Rate 1980 Rate 2000 Rate 2010
(000) % (000) % (000) % (000) % (000)
Idaho, state total
Boise Basin
Boise Urban
(c)
Area
(d)
589
124
56
1.3
2.0
2.8
667
151
74
1.7
2.0
2.6
931a
223
125
1.8
2.1
2.6
1335a
336
208
1.4b
1.8
2.2
1534
400
259
Boise Basin as percent
of Idaho
Boise Urban Area as
21.
17,
percent of Boise Basin 45%
Nampa city (e)
Caldwell city (e)
Meridian city (e)
Kuna city (f)
Melba city (f)
Middleton city (f)
Notus city (f)
Parma city (f)
Wilder city (f)
16.
10.
1.
•
.t
*
•
1.
*
2
5
n
o
5
2
5
3
4
S
1.1
1.5
'1.4
Deer.
Deer.
0.9
0.3
Deer.
Oo
• o
22.6%
49%
18.0
12.2
2.1
.5
.2
.5
.3
1.3
.6
24.0%b
56%b
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.3
.3
.3
.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
23.3
15.8
2.7
.6
.2
.6
.4
l.G
.7
1.3
1.3
1.3
1,1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
25.2%b
62%b
30.2
20.5
3.5
.8
,3
.8
.5
2.1
.9
1.1
1.1
1.1
0,9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
26.0%b
64%b
33.7
22.9
3.9
r9
.3
.9
.6
2.3
1.0
Rural portions (g) 37.3 1.2 41.9 1.1 52.0 1.1 68.3 0.9 74.5
(a) Kerr Committee on National Water Resources, Committee Print No. 5,
March I960, page 29, Series II, Migration Assumption No. 1.
(b) Factor assumed in making estimates.
(c) Includes Ada and Canyon Counties.
(d) Includes the area as defined in Table I.
(e) It is assumed that these cities will grow at about half the rate of the
Boise Urban Area.
(f) It is assumed that these cities will grow at a rate slightly less than that
of Nampa, Caldwell and Meridian,.
(g) "Rural" portion includes all unincorporated area outside the Boise Urban
Area. Because of the expansion anticipated in agriculture, it is assumed that
the rural portion of this Basin will not decrease in population, as might be
expected in other Basins, but will increase at about the same rate as that of
the small incorporated places.
Note: Items may not add to total because of rounding.
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